# 5 Filling skills needs and building our future workforce

##### Main points

-  Addressing skills shortages and proactively building a strong and skilled labour force will be

fundamental to achieving full employment and productivity growth.

-  Responding to the challenges of workforce shortages and the significant forces shaping the

economy will require substantial growth in the high-skilled workforce.

-  Importantly, workforce planning grounded in data and insights from industry and educators

can drive a responsive skills and training sector.

-  Some industries that are growing rapidly are facing acute skills shortages and require tailored

workforce solutions to ensure we can meet future skills needs, including investments in
domestic skills and training complemented by targeted migration pathways.

-  Building a highly skilled workforce will require more collaboration across higher education,

vocational education and training, industry and governments, and a culture of lifelong
learning.

Australia’s skilled workforce is a competitive advantage for our economy. It has allowed us to build a
large, sophisticated services sector and underpinned world-leading mining and agricultural industries.
Most importantly it has allowed us to raise living standards over time.

To sustain this success, we need to continue to invest in people’s skills so they can adapt to the
changing needs of our economy. Workers will need to have strong foundation skills, including
interpersonal and problem-solving skills, to meet growing needs for sophisticated soft skills. To
respond to the significant forces shaping the economy, we will need to build the workforce required
to meet demand for care and support services, realise the opportunity of the net zero transformation
and capture the productivity benefits presented by new technologies.

Managing this workforce transition will require a whole-of-government response. Strategic planning is
needed to ensure efficient delivery of infrastructure, services and housing as the workforce grows.
Factoring in these requirements will facilitate a smoother transition and prepare us to meet our future
skills needs.

The Government is focused on building adaptable and resilient systems to respond to forces shaping
Australia’s economy, and in turn to develop adaptable and resilient people who can continually learn
and reskill in order to catch up and keep up with labour market needs. However, this will not be
enough. Each of these significant forces will also require their own, targeted response.


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## 5.1 Our objective is to fill skills needs and build our future labour force

The mix of skills required in the labour force is changing as Australia’s economy evolves. This reflects
the changing nature of work. An adaptable and more highly skilled and educated workforce will be
required to meet the challenges and the opportunities of an uncertain future. Workers are likely to
change occupations 2.4 times on average over the next two decades.[1] It is also likely there will be
more growth in jobs that need higher-level skills, which means workers will require higher levels of
post-school education and training.[2] Projections produced by Victoria University for Jobs and Skills
Australia (JSA) show that over the next ten years, more than nine out of ten new jobs expected to be
created will require post-secondary qualifications.[3] Around 44 per cent of jobs will require a vocational
education and training (VET) qualification, and around half (48 per cent) will require a bachelor’s
degree or higher qualification. In the current labour market, as of May 2023, around 51 per cent of
jobs require a VET qualification, while 35 per cent require a bachelor’s degree or higher.[4] The future
labour market will demand ongoing rebalancing of the types of skills delivered across the tertiary
sector.

An adaptable workforce means workers have both a strong core skillset relevant to all jobs and a
well-developed set of specialist skills applicable to emerging work needs. A changing industry mix will
demand different specific skills. For example, the net zero transformation will see new industries
emerge and grow, while the rising demand for care and support services will drive expansion of the
health care and social assistance industry. To upskill for the fast-paced evolution of roles and the
changing industry mix, workers need an adaptable skills system which is responsive to demand.

While it is impossible to perfectly predict the exact form of the jobs and tasks of the future, it is
possible to anticipate the broad areas where labour demand will grow rapidly, so that targeted
solutions can be developed. Labour demand is expected to be strong in areas where significant forces
are shaping the economy. Projections produced by Victoria University for JSA show that digital and
technology jobs will grow by 21 per cent by 2033, while the care and support economy is expected to
grow by 22 per cent by 2033.[i] Projections produced by Deloitte for JSA show that the occupations key
to the clean energy workforce will need to increase by around 30 per cent by 2033 to deliver the net
zero transformation.[ii] This represents an increase of around 213,000 workers. The clean energy supply
workforce alone is projected to increase by around 127 per cent.[iii]

These forecasts indicate the scale and nature of the skills challenges we need to meet, and
demonstrate how central effective workforce development is to Australia’s broader objectives.
For example, growth in jobs in the care and digital economies will outpace Australia’s projected
population growth over the coming decade. Meeting this demand will be key to ensuring the provision
of high-quality care, and ensuring Australia can seize the productivity growth opportunities digital
technologies present. Similarly, the pace at which Australia can develop a clean energy workforce will

i Digital and technology jobs are calculated based on the combined growth of 20 occupations identified in Tech Council
of Australia’s (2022) Australia’s Tech Jobs Opportunity report. The projections do not include tech-related jobs which
are included in the Government’s commitment to 1.2 million tech-related jobs. The care and support economy is
calculated by JSA based on 19 occupations in six industries, spanning early childhood education and care, residential
aged care and disability and other care.

ii Table 5.1 provides a list of occupations.

iii JSA defines the clean energy supply workforce as the workers whose employment relates directly to the generation of
renewable energy and includes hydro-electricity generation, hydrogen, offshore wind generation, wind generation and
solar generation.


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impact Australia’s ability to capture the economic opportunity presented by the net zero
transformation. Rising to these challenges will require a strategic approach to growing the overall
labour force in priority areas and building supply of specialist skills.

### 5.1.1 Tertiary education needs to deliver the skilled workers for the jobs of the future

High-quality and responsive education and training systems are pivotal to creating a resilient
workforce. Businesses need workers with occupational expertise and strong employability skills who
can adapt and shift across tasks as required. To support businesses, the education system must equip
people with the capabilities and skills necessary to respond to changes in the labour market. Many of
these skills are initially developed in early childhood and developed further through school years,
as discussed in Chapters 4 and 6.

In addition to supporting people to develop these core occupational and employability skills, the
education system needs to provide the further technical and specialist skills for participation in the
future labour market. The following factors will be beneficial:

-  effective – but not overly prescriptive – forecasts

-  a tertiary system responsive to these needs

-  better aligning participation in education and training with skills needs.

### 5.1.2 Forecasting skills needs helps the tertiary sector respond to changing demands

Predicting exactly which skills will be needed, and where they will be needed, is hard to do with
perfect accuracy. Many occupations in the labour force today did not exist 30 years ago. Emerging
industries and the spectrum of occupations will continue to expand. For example, in 2015 there were
only 450 people employed as data scientists. Just four years later there were 3,210, an increase of
nearly 500 per cent.[5] Telehealth is another example: between 2018 and 2022, the number of internet
job listings mentioning telehealth increased by over 600 per cent.[6] Unsurprisingly, there was an
increase in job listings mentioning telehealth during the COVID-19 pandemic, but the rate has
continued to climb since then. Telehealth has now become an enduring way of people gaining easy
access to services and medicines they need regardless of location.

Despite the difficulty of accurately forecasting detailed labour market shifts, there are broad trends
that can be identified and there are ways to predict the specific skill sets needed. This is particularly
important for beginning the process of educating people in more technical areas that will be in
demand. For example, the Department of Employment’s projections over the five years to
November 2019 accurately forecast that the largest employment growth would come from the health
care and social assistance industry, even though the size of the shift was underestimated.[7] National
Skills Commission (now JSA) projections to November 2026 (Chart 5.1) show similar expected growth.


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Chart 5.1 Projected employment growth by industry, November 2021 to November 2026

Professional, Scientific and Technical Services **16.8%**

Education and Training **13.4%**

Accommodation and Food Services **13.2%**

Construction **5.8%**

Public Administration and Safety **6.4%**

Retail Trade **4.3%**

Transport, Postal and Warehousing **6.1%**

Financial and Insurance Services **6.3%**

Administrative and Support Services **6.4%**

Arts and Recreation Services **10.1%**

Manufacturing **2.7%**

Other Services **3.7%**

Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing **5.1%**

Mining **5.9%**

Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services **6.3%**

Wholesale Trade **1.8%**

Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services **1.9%**

Information Media and Telecommunications **0.4%**

|5.8% 6.4% 4.3% 6.1% .3% 4% 1% % %|13.2|13.4% %|16.8%|Col5|15.8%|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|



0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 **'000**

Thousands

Source: National Skills Commission, 2021 Employment Projections.

Note: Bars refer to projected change in employment (thousands). Percentages refer to the percentage growth for
each industry.

It is reasonable to expect continued employment growth in the health care and social assistance
industry given the ageing population and rising demand for quality care and support services. It is also
reasonable to expect increased use of digital and advanced technologies and the net zero
transformation creating large demand for workers. Demand can be predicted with enough confidence
to guide planning by businesses, tertiary education institutions and people making education and
training decisions. The defence industry is another example where future workforce needs can be
predicted with some degree of confidence (Box 5.1).

We are building strong capabilities to do this predictive work through JSA and industry-led Jobs and
Skills Councils (JSCs). JSA will play a critical role in providing independent advice and information on
current, emerging and future skills needs. JSA’s work will provide insights into the direction of growth
in certain industries and emerging trends, how the nature of work is changing and what types of skills
will be required to capitalise on future labour market opportunities. JSA will work with tripartite
stakeholders to shape education and migration policy settings accordingly – an approach often used
internationally across a range of policy areas.[8]


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##### Box 5.1 Workforce growth to protect Australia’s security and national interests

Skilled workers in Defence and supporting industries underpin the Australian Defence Force’s work to
protect Australia’s national interests and advance our security and prosperity. We will need skilled workers
in industry with both vocational and higher education qualifications and some with additional
defence-related skill sets. In addition, Defence projects that it will need to grow its workforce by
approximately 18,500 personnel by 2040.[9]

Australia’s Defence industry will also need to grow significantly to deliver on the priorities included in the
Defence Strategic Review. For example, at its peak, building and sustaining nuclear-powered submarines in
Australia will support up to 8,500 direct jobs in the industrial workforce. Project management, security,
mechanical operations, mechanical engineering, engineering management, electrical engineering, systems
engineering, and project cost and scheduling are areas identified as priorities, especially in South Australia.

The SA Defence Industry Workforce and Skills Taskforce is an example of a collaboration between
governments and the defence industry that aims to drive implementation of measures to develop the
highly skilled defence workforce we need to deliver current and future defence projects.

### 5.1.3 An education and training sector more responsive to skills needs

When schools, the vocational education and training sector, higher education and other private
education providers are effective at meeting skills needs, they expand opportunities for employment
and support economic growth. Improving the responsiveness of these systems to industry demand is
central to ensuring Australia can realise the opportunities presented by a changing economy.

#### Vocational education and training

The VET system is a major pathway to deliver the future workforce. To prepare for the significant
forces of the rising demand for quality care and support services, increased use of digital and
advanced technologies and the net zero transformation, a more coordinated approach to the VET
system by government and industry is needed. This includes making sure that students are presented
with tertiary education choices that raise awareness of the career opportunities provided by VET
pathways. VET and higher education must be presented as options with different but equally
rewarding career paths to secure, fairly paid jobs.

States and territories have responsibility for VET delivery, which means training offerings are
significantly supported by the states and can vary across the nation. The Australian Government also
provides funding to support VET. Better national coordination on VET skills is underway, and shared
system stewardship supported by a stronger evidence base through the five-year National Skills
Agreement currently under negotiation, will lift the quality and relevance of teaching, increase the
supply of workers for priority skills areas and improve student employment prospects.

A major challenge to meeting skills needs is lifting course completion rates, especially for priority
cohorts. For students who commenced a VET qualification in 2018, the completion rate for all
students was 47.6 per cent. For students with disability, it was 41.8 per cent and for remote students
40.7 per cent. Completion rates for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander students were even lower at
34.5 per cent.[10] A dedicated and collaborative national effort is required to trial new approaches to
support these priority groups and make sure more people benefit from a tertiary education.


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#### Higher education

While Australia has a quality higher education system, it will need to become increasingly responsive
to meet the needs of a changing economy. To ensure graduates are equipped with the most relevant
and up-to-date skills, higher education will also need to increase collaboration with industry and
business. Evidence highlights the effectiveness of combining formal learning with work-related
experience for improving student outcomes.[11] Greater use of work-integrated learning will support
this goal as well as improving higher education teaching. A more student-focused approach is needed
to ensure students get the full benefit of their education and have the skills they need to enter the
labour force. This includes supporting students to make good choices about their education so they
can make the best of future opportunities.

Relative prices have not always provided an effective incentive for students to choose one degree over
another. The Job-ready Graduates (JRG) package is one example of an ineffective student incentive
scheme in higher education. Early evidence suggests the JRG package has had little to no impact on
students’ degree selection.[12] While student contributions for society and culture degrees more than
doubled, applications to admissions centres for these degrees increased by 3.1 per cent in 2021, and
direct university applications increased by 63.2 per cent.[13] The JRG package failed to recognise that
student interest is one of the major drivers of course selection.[14] While it is difficult to convince
students to take courses outside their area of interest, students can be influenced towards different
courses within their areas of interest.[15] The ‘publicity effect’ can impact course selection, through
positive or negative media or promotion of future employment prospects.[16] For example, marketing
campaigns in the United States and United Kingdom which promote teaching as a career have proved
effective.[17] Given that students’ career choices are heavily shaped by parents and those around them,
marketing campaigns can influence both the student and those who advise them.[18] Up-front
payments to support work and study can also incentivise course choice. For example, bursaries or
scholarships have been shown to be an effective incentive for high-achieving school-leavers and
mid-career professionals to choose a teaching career.[19] These methods offer alternative approaches
to using course fees as an instrument for shaping student choice.

#### Helping school leavers make good career choices

High-quality career advice needs to balance supporting students to pursue their interests and
aspirations with information about future job and earning prospects. Providing high-quality careers
information about emerging labour market opportunities is a more effective way of directing students
to gain particular skills. Although predicting what will happen in the future with complete certainty is
fraught, articulating national priorities and long-run trends can help people make decisions that align
with labour market needs. It will be important that information on future opportunities is accurate to
avoid adverse outcomes. For example, considerable attention has been given to the increasing need
for STEM skills. However, employment outcomes across STEM fields of study can differ significantly.[20]

Creating clear pathways into and across tertiary education is an important step towards improving
student experiences by helping match courses of study with interests and career aspirations. The
information provided by the workforce planning function of JSA will be vital for helping individuals
make informed decisions about study and work. Information on available courses and potential labour
market outcomes are spread across many platforms and links to careers information are
inconsistent.[21]


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### 5.1.4 The migration system can better target skills needs

By complementing domestic skills and training pathways, migration can play a role in addressing
short-term skills shortages and bringing new expertise to Australia. To maximise the benefits of skilled
migration, we need to select the migrants who can best contribute to lifting long-term prosperity
while ensuring that they can effectively match into jobs they have the skills for. In both of these areas,
Australia can do better.

#### There is significant scope to better align migration with domestic skills needs

Temporary migrants are concentrated in the lower-skilled portion of the labour market. This is
because two of the largest uncapped temporary migration visas are Working Holiday Makers and
Students. Together with the Pacific Australia Labour Mobility (PALM) scheme, this skews the industries
that migrants work in towards those with a higher proportion of jobs that have low barriers to entry
and lower skills requirements.

As a result, temporary migrants selected on a skills basis make up a small proportion of our temporary
migration system. Students and New Zealand citizens, who are not selected on a skill-based criteria,
make up about 60 per cent of people holding a temporary visa. Australia only actively shapes a very
small proportion of its migrant intake, with the overwhelming majority of migrants arriving in Australia
for non-work purposes but then participating in the labour market. This creates tension between the
objectives of specific visa classes, for instance balancing student work rights with study requirements.

Ensuring Australia becomes the destination of choice for migrants with in-demand skills can be
progressed by replacing outdated, inflexible occupation lists that do not meet our skills needs, with an
improved new core skills occupation list. Updating Australia’s classification of occupations to keep
pace with market changes is challenging. It particularly lags new and emerging occupations which are
among the most productive and of greatest interest to employers. This leaves gaps when assessing the
current and future workforce skills mix. A notable example is the absence of data scientists for many
years from the Australian Government’s system for classifying occupations – one of the fastest
growing occupations in Australia. In the future, constructing a flexible and responsive occupation list
offers the opportunity to better reflect the current state of the labour market and identify the skilled
migrants that are most needed.

There is also scope to better use the skills that migrants bring to Australia. Nearly a quarter of
permanent skilled migrants are working in a job beneath their skill level.[22] This could reflect a range of
reasons, including challenges navigating licensing systems, completing top-up qualifications, and
working through Australian recruitment processes. Discrimination and unconscious bias among
employers can also adversely impact migrant employment outcomes.[23] Some occupations exhibit
particularly poor results for migrant skills matching. Migrant engineers and accountants stand out
among the occupations not matching well into their nominated occupation (Chart 5.2).


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Chart 5.2 Share of permanent migrants working in nominated occupations or at higher skill
level nominated occupations with highest and lowest shares

Welfare Worker

Accountants

Translator

Training and Development Professional

Accountant (General)

Financial Investment Adviser

Agricultural and Forestry Scientists

External Auditor

Telecommunications Engineer

Production or Plant Engineer

Retail Pharmacist

Registered Nurses
University Lecturer

Child Care Worker

Veterinarian

Dentist

Medical Practitioners

Physiotherapist

General Medical Practitioner

Resident Medical Officer

0 20 40 60 80 100

Working in nominated occupation Working at the same or higher skill level as nominated occupation

Source: Treasury; Home Affairs Continuous Survey of Australia’s Migrants, 2023 to 2021.


Note: These values are weighted and include nominated occupations with more than 100 observations over the
sample period.

These occupation-level results are supported by data from the 2016 Census indicating that migrants
are more highly qualified than Australian citizens in all eight major occupational categories
(Chart 5.3).[24] Some of this can be explained by Australian citizens having more years of experience in
roles that can compensate for lower qualification attainment. However, the persistence of this trend
in all occupation groups highlights the opportunity to better match migrants into jobs. This is reflected
by the experience of migrant women, who are more likely to be ‘secondary’ visa holders and can have
greater difficulty getting their qualifications recognised and finding work to match their skills.[25]

Skills mismatch may also explain some of the significant differences in the performance of specific visa
classes. Employer sponsored and skilled independent migrants contribute the most to the economy
over their lifetime. Other skilled visa classes, such as the Business Innovation and Investment visa and
state nominated visa stream do not perform well.[26] To maximise the opportunities of the migration
system Australia needs to do better at matching migrants with roles that suit them.


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Chart 5.3 Migrant and Australian skill level matching by occupation categories

Managers

Professionals

Technicians & Trade Workers

Community & Personal Service

Workers

Clerical & Administrative

Workers

Sales Workers

Machinery Operators & Drivers

Labourers

← Low er skilled  |  Higher skilled →

All other Australian citizens Australian Naturalised Citizens Permanent Visa Temporary Visa

Source: Flinders University analysis of Multi-Agency Data Integration Project (MADIP), 2023; ABS Census, 2016.

Note: Population aged 25 to 54 years old, primary and secondary visa applicants. 2016 data was used for this analysis
because of the COVID-19 disruptions caused to migration in 2021.

One improvement to lessen the likelihood of skills mismatches for migrants is better supporting
international students transition to in-demand areas of the workforce. Some students transition better
than others, and this is influenced by a range of factors, such as visa rules, citizenship status, lack of
networks, the skills assessment system, and English language ability.[27] Reforms to the migration
system to help students better transition out of study into areas of skills shortage and to ensure strong
English language skills are likely to improve job outcomes for this cohort.

## 5.2 Taking tailored approaches to critical shortages

The significant forces shaping the labour market will create pronounced demand for workers. A larger
care sector workforce will be needed to support the rising demand for quality care and support
services. The technological and digital transformation will require more tech and digital skills across
the board as well as some highly skilled specialist workforces in fields such as Artificial Intelligence (AI)
and robotics. The net zero transformation also presents opportunities as Australia transitions away
from high-emissions industries towards renewable energy and low-emissions technology. Each will
need a tailored response to effectively build the workforce and respond to future skills needs.


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### 5.2.1 Meeting demand for care services

#### The care and support economy is rapidly growing 


The healthcare and social assistance industry is the fastest growing part of the labour market.[28]
Over the past 50 years, the demand for care and support services has grown significantly, and this is
reflected in the growth in the care workforce (Chart 5.4). In 1966, 2½ per cent of the workforce was
in a care occupation. This has increased to ten per cent of the workforce today and this growth is
expected to continue.[29] Victoria University projections for JSA show the share of total employment in
the health care and social assistance industry will increase from 15.2 per cent in 2023 to 16.7 per cent
in 2033.[30] This is supported by analysis in the 2023 Intergenerational Report, which projects the care
and support sector will almost double as a share of GDP over the next 40 years, increasing from
around eight per cent of GDP today to around 15 per cent in 2062–63.[iv] Were employment to grow
in line with the sector’s GDP share, then the workforce will also double over the next 40 years
(Chart 5.5).[31]


Chart 5.4 Growth in the care and support
sector workforce

**'000**

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013 2018 2023

Hospitals
Medical and Other Health Care Services
Aged Care
Other Care (Including Disability)

Source: Treasury; ABS Labour Force, Detailed, Australia,
May 2023.

Note: Employment groupings based on the ANZSIC
subdivisions for the Health Care and Social
Assistance division. Annual moving average
applied to quarterly data.


Chart 5.5 Care and support sector
employment

**Millions**


2002–03 2022–23 2042–43 2062–63

Source: Treasury; ABS Labour Force, Detailed, Australia,
May 2023.

Note: Assumptions for modelling are listed in the 2023
Intergenerational Report (IGR).


iv The 2023 Intergenerational Report uses a different methodology from JSA to calculate the care and support sector.


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Analysis undertaken by JSA shows that the care workforce is broad. In May 2023 there were around
657,200 paid care and support workers employed across 19 occupations and six industries. The care
and support workforce spans early childhood education and care, residential aged care and disability
and other care.[v] The largest occupation within the care workforce is personal care workers, followed
by child carers.[32]

The size of the growth of the care workforce over the coming years is therefore likely to be a
significant challenge. Over the last five years, growth in the paid care and support workforce has been
three times faster than total employment across the economy. Australia’s ageing population and
increased uptake of formal care services are contributing to increased demand. Analysis based on
Victoria University projections indicates that the care and support workforce will grow from around
657,200 workers today to 801,700 workers by 2033. The demand for workers is likely to be higher
than this. In particular, strong demand is likely for workers with Skill Level 4 qualifications,
commensurate with a Certificate II or III, who already make up half the workforce (Chart 5.6).
The significant opportunities for lower-skilled workers will benefit those looking to enter the labour
market, re-enter the labour market, or shift sectors. This is because the training required for entry
for many roles is likely to be less onerous than other higher skill level occupations.


Chart 5.6 Projected growth in the care workforce by skill level

**'000**

1000

800

600

400

200

0

2023 2028 2033

Skill level 1 Skill level 2 Skill level 3 Skill level 4

Source: Victoria University projections for Jobs and Skills Australia, 2023.

Note: Skill Level 1 is commensurate with a Bachelor’s degree or higher qualification; Skill Level 2 is commensurate
with an Advanced Diploma or Diploma; Skill Level 3 is commensurate with a Certificate IV or III (including at
least two years’ on-the-job training); Skill Level 4 is commensurate with a Certificate II or III; Skill Level 5 is
commensurate with a Certificate I or secondary education.


JSA analysis of the care and support workforce includes the following occupations: child carers, child care centre
managers, early childhood (pre-school) teachers, education aides, welfare support workers, personal care workers
(formally classified as aged and disability carers), nursing support and personal care workers, diversional therapists,
enrolled and mothercraft nurses, Indigenous health workers, social professionals, registered nurses, nutritional
professionals, occupational therapists, physiotherapists, podiatrists, audiologists and speech pathologists, nurse
managers and health and welfare service managers.


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However, there will remain a significant number of higher-skill roles within the care and support
sector that will need trained workers. This will require greater collaboration between the higher
education and VET sectors, as well as leveraging on-the-job training. Targeted education is needed to
support workers to be continuously upskilled throughout their careers. This allows them to adjust to
changing care needs but also to allow them to grow their career within the sector and take advantage
of the diverse roles and opportunities it offers. The early educators, health and human services JSC,
HumanAbility, is working to ensure the needs of the care industry are reflected in qualifications and
training packages.

To meet this demand, a wide range of actions will need to be taken, including improving attraction
and retention in the sector, expanding training opportunities, and investing in technology and new
models of care to enable carers to spend more of their time on care. Government has a significant role
to play in aligning the training, education and migration systems with this workforce goal, as well as
evolving the way it engages in the funding and procurement of care services.

#### Improving attraction and retention

The starting point for building the future care workforce is ensuring the jobs are secure and fairly paid.
Turnover in the care workforce is high. For example, for personal care workers, 59 per cent spent
three years or less in the occupation.[33] Turnover is higher for young people, with 24 per cent of
personal care workers aged 44 and under spending just one year in the occupation.[34] This is due to a
range of factors, including high workloads, concerns about service quality, pay, work conditions and
concerns about career progression opportunities. To address retention issues and encourage workers
who have left the sector to re-enter, the care workforce needs to create jobs which offer safe
workplaces, secure work and opportunities for a rewarding career.

Ensuring pay and conditions reflect the value of care and support work is critical. In May 2018,
95 per cent of care and support workers earned pay rates below the Australian average.[vi][,35] Lower pay
reflects the gendered undervaluation of work by women in the care and support economy.[36] In the
2022–23 Annual Wage Review decision, the Fair Work Commission (FWC) identified significant issues
concerning the potential gendered undervaluation of work in female-dominated industries and
occupations. The FWC will undertake work to identify occupations and industries where there is
potential pay inequity and gender undervaluation of work to underpin consideration of issues in the
2023–24 Review.[37] In addition, to address lower rates of pay in aged care, in November 2022 the FWC
granted a 15 per cent interim wage increase for aged care workers. This decision helps recognise the
value of the care sector and helps make it more attractive for future workers.

Training to enter care professions needs to be accessible and attractive. Training places should be
readily available, especially in regional areas and for in-demand specialities. Further, opportunities
need to be available for on-the-job learning and for qualifications to be gained with practical
experience. However, before prospective workers even enter the profession, they face financial
barriers to participation. Many qualifications in the care workforce require workplace placements or
practicums which are unpaid. Additional upfront costs such as transport, child care, and forgoing
unpaid work during placements can result in students changing courses or withdrawing from study
entirely.

vi Note this statistic uses an older definition of the care and support economy used by JSA.


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Demand for care and support workers has been met overwhelmingly by women. The care and support
workforce is highly gender segregated, with women accounting for 76.5 per cent of employment in
the health care and social assistance industry. Attracting more men and diverse cohorts into care and
support professions will also be important to address shortages in the sector. In addition, the draft
National Care and Support Economy Strategy highlights the importance of delivering culturally
appropriate care for all people. An increasingly diverse Australian population will require a diverse
workforce, as this enhances capability in meeting the varied needs of patients.

#### Managing regional workforces

Attracting more workers is particularly important to address the growing demand for quality care in
the regions. The ageing population in regional areas, combined with thin markets, means tailored
solutions need to be developed to meet growing care needs. It will be critical to attract more workers
to regional areas, deliver more training in regional locations and enable people who can and want to
work more hours in regional areas to do so. There are also opportunities to make more efficient use of
existing care and support workers, by allowing them to deliver more multidisciplinary care. In addition,
technology-enabled service delivery such as telehealth is an effective way of improving access to
healthcare professionals in regional areas. While not the single solution to address delivery gaps,
telehealth can support increased access to services such as mental health.

#### Using migration to complement the local care workforce

Well-designed migration settings can complement the domestic workforce in the care sector.
Migrants make up large portions of the care workforce, especially in aged care (Chart 5.7).[38]
Occupations with a higher share of new entrants to the care and support economy who were born
overseas include registered nurses in aged care (40 per cent), nurse managers (34 per cent), personal
care workers (31 per cent) and nursing support and personal care workers (30 per cent).[39] Overall the
health sector is an example of successful permanent skilled migration.

A large proportion of migrants working in the health care and social assistance industry are on skilled
visas.[40] However, large numbers of migrants in other visa categories also contribute to this workforce,
with 19.4 per cent of migrants in the industry on family or New Zealand visas, and eight per cent on
student, working holiday, humanitarian or other temporary visas (Chart 5.8).


-----

Chart 5.7 Migrant status of care workers in
residential aged care

**'000**

80

60

40

20

**Born in Australia**

**Born overseas**


0

2007 2011 2015 2019 2023

Source: Treasury analysis of ABS Labour Force,
microdata, May 2023.


Chart 5.8 Share of migrants in health care and
social assistance

Permanent skilled

Permanent family

New Zealand

Student

Permanent humanitarian

Temporary skilled

Working holiday and other

temporary

0 10 20 30 **%**


Source: Mackey, W., Coates, B. & Sherrell, H., Migrants in
_the Australian workforce, (Grattan Institute 2022)._

Note: Remaining share arrived before 2000 or were
born in Australia. Permanent visa group are those
who held a permanent visa between 2000 and
2016. Data on visa group is not available for
migrants who arrived before 2000.


Note: Four quarter average. In 2021, 85 per cent of
residential age care workers born overseas
arrived in Australia aged 18 years or older:
Treasury analysis of 2021 Census.


There is scope to improve how we bring migrants into the care sector. Currently, there are significant
regulatory barriers to recruiting skilled migrants. Common feedback from internationally qualified
health practitioners is that the process is lengthy, burdensome, complex and expensive. For example,
the Medical Board of Australia only recognises six competent authorities in five countries, while
New Zealand recognises 23, the United Kingdom over 30 and Canada eight.[ 41]

Processes are repetitive and information is difficult to find. Those who wish to work in the Australian
healthcare industry must be registered with the relevant health practitioner board. These boards
oversee the registration processes for physicians, pharmacists, nurses, midwives, physiotherapists,
and other health professionals – independent of the skilled visa assessment process. It can take an
international health graduate looking to come to Australia over a year, often longer, to register.


#### Better using the available workforce

The high prevalence of casual work and multiple job holders in the care sector adds complexity to
skills shortages and has implications for delivering quality care. In February 2021, around 28 per cent
of the care and support workforce were casual workers, compared with 19 per cent of the total
Australian workforce.[42] Aged care, disability support and veterans’ care workers are nearly twice as
likely as other workers to hold multiple jobs.[43] This can limit job security for some workers who would
prefer more stable work and has flow-on impacts for attraction and retention in the sector. Casual
work and the prevalence of working multiple jobs can also have an adverse impact on the efficiency


-----

with which the care workforce is used, particularly when there are shortages. For example, there are
challenges with rostering when there is a mix of part-time permanent and casual staff, often working
at multiple care facilities to earn a living wage.[44]

Care and support markets have unique drivers and competitive forces, which have significant
implications for the care sector labour market. In 2021–22, the National Disability Insurance Scheme
had over 500,000 participants and around 325,000 workers.[45] In the aged care sector, the
Commonwealth Home Support Program has around 840,000 users and 76,000 staff, home care had
over 216,000 users and 80,000 staff, and residential aged care supported around 245,000 residents
and over 277,000 total staff.[46] These different parts of the care sector often demand the same skills
and can compete for the same workers. To ensure different parts of the care sector can grow
together, the Government must be careful to consider the care workforce as a whole when setting
policy, to ensure best use of the available workforce.

Improving care delivery models

When care is delivered more efficiently, it expands the service capacity of the available workforce.
Improving integration and coordination of primary care services can improve health outcomes and
reduce costs by preventing unnecessary hospitalisations. In aged care, effective home care services
can be a high productivity approach to delivering care, as living independently for longer can result in
lower labour requirements and lower costs than residential aged care, as well as greater benefits to
patients.

Better integration of technology and use of data in existing care settings also presents an opportunity
to improve the quality of care. One example is My Health Record, which is a comprehensive data
sharing system spanning the whole health and care sector. My Health Record ensures carers have
up-to-date and readily accessible information about their clients to deliver more tailored and timely
care. By reducing time spent on administrative tasks, technology can free up workers to spend more
time with their patients. This improves quality of service, allowing workers to add value where their
skills are needed most, especially as 23.8 per cent of occupations in the care and support workforce
require a bachelor’s degree or above.[47] Training workers to use new technologies will be crucial to
help capture quality-enhancing productivity gains.

The Government makes significant investments into the care economy, spending over $160 billion on
aged care, NDIS and health expenses in 2022–23.[48] The way the Government buys these services has a
large impact on access, service quality and choice for consumers, and wages and job quality for
workers. The different sectors of the care economy are accessed, funded and regulated separately,
with some providers delivering similar services under different regulatory regimes. Opportunities to
purchase services in a way which encourages efficiency can help improve overall care delivery models.
There are also opportunities to improve the delivery of care through regulatory harmonisation,
especially in removing barriers to moving between different parts of the care system. For example,
different worker screening arrangements across sectors and states make it difficult for workers to
work across different sectors including aged care, disability support and veterans’ care.[49]

### 5.2.2 Building the workforce we need for the net zero transformation 

Building a clean energy workforce is a critical enabler of Australia’s net zero ambitions. Reducing
emissions by 43 per cent by 2030 and achieving net zero by 2050 will reshape the skills needed in our
economy. The pace at which Australia can develop and efficiently deploy a clean energy workforce will


-----

also be key to unlocking the industrial opportunities and potential productivity growth presented by
this economic transformation. Building the clean energy workforce also forms part of a broader
strategy to build a nature positive economy.

#### Demand for clean energy workers

The net zero transformation is accelerating. By April 2021, the pipeline of new clean energy projects
committed to and underway alone was estimated to require 28,649 full-time equivalent jobs.[50]
Shortages are also being reported as a key challenge in the sector.[51] Between 2012 and 2020, job ads
for roles in wind and solar industries increased nearly four-fold in Australia.[52] This indicates significant
potential for further growth in clean energy jobs as the net zero transformation progresses. Globally,
the rate of transition from emissions-intensive to non-emissions intensive jobs has increased nearly
10-fold since 2005.[53]

JSA analysis has found that to reach net zero, a mix of critical clean energy jobs and supporting jobs
will be required. Deloitte projections for JSA show that the specific clean energy supply workforce is
projected to increase from around 15,000 workers in 2023 to 34,000 workers in 2033.[vii][,54] The net zero
transformation is also increasing demand for workers in a wide range of related industries, beyond
core clean energy jobs. For example, employment in the National Electricity Market is forecast to
increase by 19,000 jobs from 2023 to reach 63,000 jobs in 2039.[55] Deloitte projections for JSA show
occupations key to the clean energy workforce will need to increase by around 30 per cent, or around
213,000 workers, by 2033 (Table 5.1). We will need almost 43,000 more electricians in the next
ten years alone.

vii JSA defines the clean energy supply workforce as the workers whose employment relates directly to the generation of
renewable energy and including hydro-electricity generation, hydrogen, offshore wind generation, wind generation and
solar generation.


-----

Table 5.1 Projected change in employment by occupations key to the clean energy workforce,
2023 to 2033

Occupation Growth, level Growth, %

Telecommunications Trades Workers 19,000 100

Electronics Trades Workers 19,000 73

Electrical Engineering Draftspersons and Technicians 7,000 58

Agricultural and Forestry Scientists 3,000 33

Structural Steel Construction Workers 8,000 33

Construction Managers 38,000 31

Airconditioning and Refrigeration Mechanics 9,000 29

Urban and Regional Planners 5,000 28

Other Engineering Professionals 4,000 27

Electricians 43,000 26

Plumbers 26,000 26

Industrial, Mechanical and Production Engineers 9,000 23

Electrical Engineers 5,000 17

Civil Engineering Professionals 13,000 17

Engineering Managers 5,000 17

Source: Deloitte projections for Jobs and Skills Australia, 2023.

To meet demand for clean energy workers, Australia will need to attract new and more diverse
workers to the sector and broaden the talent pool. Women are underrepresented in the clean energy
workforce, as are First Nations people and people with disability.[56] This reflects in part the lower
participation rates of these groups in overall trade occupations. Targeted action is needed to bring in
more workers from these groups to address critical shortages and ensure all Australians can benefit
from the transformation to net zero. Migrants will also form a significant part of this transformation,
with the acceleration of the renewable transition requiring Australia to attract global expertise.

#### Occupational transitions and the demand for new skills 

In combination, the growth in sectors involved with decarbonising the Australian economy, such as
solar and wind farms, will provide opportunities for workers in emissions-intensive occupations to
change jobs or upskill. Many of the skills needed to decarbonise already exist in our economy. Trades,
technicians and other workers needed to support the net zero transformation are already employed in
other sectors of the economy, such as in mining and construction. In a majority of emissions-intensive
occupations, workers already have the skills to transition to clean industry jobs.[57] In fact, compared to
many other countries, Australia has high levels of clean energy skills in the workforce, and a high share
of emissions-intensive jobs that are able to effectively transition to clean energy jobs.[58]

While there will be opportunities to transfer skills to new clean industries, some form of training will
often be required to ensure the workforce is equipped with the specialist knowledge to be safe and
productive. Skilling the clean energy sector will require diverse qualifications across the tertiary
system. Most jobs will require existing broad-based qualifications that teach fundamental or core skills
(for example Certificate III in Electrotechnology or a Bachelor of Electrical Engineering). To deliver
specialist knowledge, ‘top-up’ or elective courses may be required, whether through post-graduate
qualifications or short courses. Finally, new qualifications may be needed for emerging occupations


-----

where a larger range of specialist skills will be required. Powering Skills Organisation is one of the new
JSCs responsible for the energy, gas and renewables sector. The organisation will bring a strategic
industry perspective to the development of training products and help to address these workforce
challenges.

Finding skilled VET teachers to teach new energy qualifications is an additional challenge. Wages need
to be competitive with those offered by industry, and industry experts face additional training
requirements to teach and assess in VET. In addition, the existing TAFE teacher workforce is older than
the general workforce, with 27 per cent of public sector VET teachers aged 60 years or over.[59]
Workforce challenges will need to be resolved in the education sector itself, for it to effectively
support the broader labour market.

The transformation to net zero provides an opportunity for specific collaboration across the tertiary
sector and with industry and governments. Dual-sector tertiary providers and the TAFE Centres of
Excellence, proposed under the upcoming National Skills Agreement, are two mechanisms for
addressing the net zero transformation collaboratively. Centres of Excellence could develop deep
expertise in wind, solar, smart energy systems or hydrogen, and build partnerships with industry to
develop innovative training courses. The pace of the transformation means new models of course
design and new types of qualifications should be prioritised. The forthcoming JSA Clean Energy
Capacity Study will look at how different transition scenarios affect future workforce needs, and how
these opportunities can be shared across regions and all cohorts in society. It will also identify the
education, training and migration pathways required for the transformation to net zero.

#### Changes in regional opportunities

Much of the transformation to net zero will be concentrated in regional areas. Eighty per cent of
facilities covered by the Safeguard Mechanism are located in just eight regions, reflecting the
significant regional concentration of decarbonisation and clean energy growth opportunities.
Many of these regional areas have lower industrial diversity, a higher concentration of related
emissions-intensive industries and lower adaptability, so may be more exposed to adjustment risks.
JSA projects that growth in employment from the net zero transformation is likely to be stronger in
regional Australia than metropolitan Australia. The Net Zero Authority will ensure that highly impacted
regional areas receive targeted support to ensure they benefit from the transformation.

Clean energy projects have already demonstrated they can play an important role in driving regional
economic transition and renewal. For example, following the closure of South Australia’s last brown
coal-fired power plant, the Leigh Creek coal mine, and the Atrium steel mill in 2016, the areas of
Port Augusta, Whyalla and Port Pirie responded by pursuing renewable energy projects in solar power
and wind.[60]


-----

Chart 5.9 Main reasons for moving between regions

Employment

Friends / family

Housing

Lifestyle / amenities

Other

0 10 20

Source: Treasury analysis of HILDA waves 2 to 21.


Note: Moving between regions is defined as moving 50km or more. Respondents can select more than one reason.
Moving for housing reasons includes voluntarily moving properties, as well as involuntarily moving.

Some workers may choose to move to these regions for new employment opportunities – moving for
employment is the most common reason people chose to move between regions (Chart 5.9).
However, we also need to invest in all regions’ ongoing prosperity. Many people living in regional
areas working in emissions-intensive industries want to continue living in those communities.
Supporting the continued strength of these regions will require a strategic plan and a more
coordinated, location-specific and proactive approach. This includes encouraging different industries
to operate in the regions, ensuring dynamic supply chains and a flow of new investment. Workers will
also need adaptable skills and access to employment and training support to take advantage of new
clean energy industries. In addition, there is a need for Government to work with employers in
emissions-intensive industries to ensure clear planning and support for workers.


### 5.2.3 Expanding digital expertise 

Digital and tech skills are becoming increasingly important to the Australian economy. Now embedded
in most jobs, they are essential for creating an adaptable workforce and supporting productivity
growth. They expand opportunities for regional workers and connect Australia with global markets.
Access to the right digital and tech skills also unlocks innovative improvements to business operations,
allows Australia to produce world-leading digital products, and ensures Australia has the skills required
to support its strategic and security interests.


To realise these benefits, the Government and the Tech Council of Australia have a shared
commitment to achieve 1.2 million people in tech-related jobs by 2030.[61] Victoria University
projections for JSA show tech occupations will grow by 12 per cent over the next five years to 2028,


-----

and by around 21 per cent over the ten years to 2033.[viii] Particularly strong five-year growth rates are
projected for occupations such as management and organisation analysts (16 per cent), computer
network professionals (14 per cent) and database and system administrators, and ICT security
specialists (13 per cent) (Chart 5.10).

Chart 5.10 Growth in selected digital and tech jobs

**'000**

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

2003 2008 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033

Management and Organisation Analysts
Database and Systems Administrators, and ICT Security Specialists
Computer Network Professionals
ICT Support Technicians

Note: Figures for 2003–2018 are ABS May quarter employment. Figures from 2023 onwards are Victoria University
projections for JSA. Projections are not based on the historical series presented in this chart.

Source: ABS Labour Force, Australia, Detailed, May 2023; Victoria University projections for Jobs and Skills Australia,
2023.


Australia’s education and training system will need to evolve to support this demand for digital and
tech skills. Businesses reported in 2019–20 that a lack of skills and knowledge was one of the top
barriers to adoption of digital technology.[62] Encouraging people to make mid-career transitions into
tech roles will be an important part of addressing gaps in the skilled labour force. People move into
technology roles from a range of different occupations, but most commonly from information and
organisation professions.[63] Attracting skilled migrants from overseas with relevant digital and
technology skills will also help to grow Australia’s technology workforce.

New forms of education and training will be required to build digital and tech skills in the workforce
and address immediate skills needs. For example, the New South Wales Institute of Applied
Technology – Digital is a partnership between government, industry, universities and TAFE to develop
skills across the in-demand areas of big data, cyber security, cloud computing, software development
and AI. A purpose-built facility at the Meadowbank TAFE is designed to deliver short courses in IT that
respond to industry’s fast-evolving needs.


viii Note JSA tech occupations do not include tech-related jobs which are included in the Government’s commitment to

1.2 million tech-related jobs.


-----

Improving our understanding of the digital and tech skills required for different jobs and
understanding what digital skills every worker should have will be essential to meet the needs of
industry. JSA’s Australian Skills Classification shows digital engagement is required at various levels of
complexity and importance.[64] Occupations requiring a high proficiency in digital engagement are
projected to increase by a greater proportion than occupations requiring intermediate or basic
proficiency (Chart 5.11). JSA analysis also identified that occupations that spend more than
50 per cent of their time on data and digital tasks are projected to grow at a faster rate than all other
occupations (Chart 5.12). This is driven by growth in ICT Support and Test Engineers and Computer
Network Professionals which are projected to be some of the fastest growing occupations over the
next five years.[65]


Chart 5.11 Average projected employment
growth of occupations by digital engagement
proficiency levels

**%**

25

20

15

10


Chart 5.12 Average employment growth of
occupations by time spent on data and
digital skills

**%**

25

20

15

10

5

0

<1 1-10 11-20 21-50 >50

**Time spent (%)**

Source: Jobs and Skills Australia Employment Projections,
2023; Australian Skills Classification, 2022; JSA
Analysis.

Note: Projections are average 10-year employment
growth, 2023 to 2033.


Basic proficiency Intermediate

proficiency


High proficiency


Source: Jobs and Skills Australia Employment Projections,
2023; Australian Skills Classification, 2022; JSA
Analysis.

Note: Projections are average 10-year employment
growth, 2023 to 2033.


To meet future workforce demands, training programs for digital and tech skills will need to get better
at attracting diverse high-school graduates. For information technology subjects, girls make up less
than a quarter of total Year 12, undergraduate university and VET enrolments.[66] This is why the
Government’s Diversity in STEM Review has been tasked with looking at what barriers diverse cohorts
face in pursuing STEM qualifications at university. It is also examining what can be done to improve
attraction and retention of diverse cohorts of Australians to tertiary STEM courses, including through
increasing collaboration between universities, VET and industry.


-----

Given the rapid pace at which digital and tech skills needs evolve, education and training providers
need to continue to engage effectively with industry on the focus and design of relevant courses.
Equipping students with foundation problem solving and analytical skills, irrespective of specialisation,
is an important part of building resilience and adapting to technological change. The Future Skills
Organisation, one of the newly established JSCs, is working with employers and training providers in
the finance, technology and business sectors to make training more relevant, agile and responsive.
The Future Skills Organisation will be supported by workforce analysis undertaken by JSA.
Supplementing the expertise of JSCs with evidence from JSA will best ensure future course design is
matched to labour market need.

## 5.3 Improving education system outcomes

The education system is central to our goal of meeting skills needs and building our future labour
force. Lifting the level of educational attainment across the Australian population requires action
across all levels of the education life cycle. To increase the number of people with post-school
qualifications, students must be set up by an effective school education to succeed and complete their
tertiary qualifications. The tertiary system must also adjust to meet future workforce needs, by
providing greater support for disadvantaged students and increasing collaboration with industry and
with other parts of the tertiary system. Finally, a culture of lifelong learning, supported by greater
workplace training, will ensure people are equipped with the training to take advantage of future
opportunities in the labour market.

### 5.3.1 School education opens pathways into further learning and work

The importance of school education, and in particular completing Year 12, is clear. Completing Year 12
provides a 30 per cent earnings boost, the most significant annual earnings increase for an additional
year of education.[67] Completing Year 12 also raises the likelihood of being employed (Chart 5.13) and
facilitates pathways into tertiary education, which will become increasingly important for the jobs of
the future. However, Year 12 or equivalent attainment is not achieved equally across society. Some
groups such as First Nations people and people with low English proficiency are less likely to have
finished Year 12, limiting their skills development and their ability to gain a secure, fairly paid job
(Chapter 6). The importance of school and post-school further education pathways for future
productivity is discussed further in Chapter 4.


-----

Chart 5.13 Participation rates and employment to population ratios for different levels of
educational attainment, February 2023

**Participation rate (%)**

Postgraduate Degree

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

|Year 12 attainment lifts people up into this cluster of labour force engagement Year 11 or equivalent Year 10 or equivalent Below Year 10/No educational attainment|Bachelor Degree Certificate III/IV Graduate Diploma/Gradu Certificate Year 12 or equivalent|
|---|---|


10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

**Employment to population ratio (%)**

Source: ABS Labour Force, Australia, Detailed, May 2023.

There is an opportunity to lift the educational attainment of Australians who face historical, cultural
and systemic barriers that hinder their ability to reach their full learning potential. Supporting
additional learning needs of disadvantaged students and schools can improve student outcomes.
Addressing this disadvantage at the schooling stage will support greater numbers of students to
progress to tertiary education and take advantage of the higher skilled jobs of the future.

### 5.3.2 Growing the workforce of the future

As highlighted earlier in this chapter, more than nine out of ten new jobs created in the next ten years
are expected to require a post-school qualification. Almost half of the new jobs will require a
bachelor’s degree or higher qualifications, and 44 per cent will require a VET qualification.[68]
However, the gains from tertiary education are not being shared equally among the population.
While 44.6 per cent of Australians aged 25 to 34 had a bachelor’s degree or above in 2022, and
73 per cent had a Certificate III or above, this is not true for all cohorts.

People from major cities are more than twice as likely to attend university as those in regional and
remote areas.[69] The proportion of people with disability aged 20 or over with a bachelor’s degree is
only 17 per cent despite 34 per cent having completed Year 12 or equivalent.[70] Among all Australians
aged 15 and over, only 7.4 per cent of First Nations Australians, 15.2 per cent of regional and remote
Australians and 17.3 per cent of Australians in low socioeconomic areas (SES) have a bachelor’s degree
or above.[71]

The attrition rate for underrepresented groups also tends to be higher than the total population,
particularly for people who study off-campus and First Nations students (Chart 5.14). The goal of


-----

higher education reform must be ‘growth for skills through greater equity’.[72] To increase tertiary
education attainment rates, reforms must address challenges such as attracting more students from
backgrounds currently underrepresented in higher education and improving quality of teaching and
learning.

Chart 5.14 Higher education attrition rates for selected cohorts

**%**

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

All students External First Nations Low SES Regional Remote

Source: Higher education statistics, Department of Education, 2022.


Note: Students refers to domestic Bachelor’s degrees. External refers to mode of attendance which does not require
on-campus attendance.

#### Setting ambitious targets for tertiary attainment


The future labour force will require significant growth in the tertiary educated workforce. In 2008, the
Bradley Review set a target that 40 per cent of Australians aged 25 to 34 should have a bachelor’s or
higher degree, and a participation target that 20 per cent of undergraduates should be from low SES
backgrounds. The first target has been met, but the second has not, with participation rates for low
SES students barely increasing since the target was set.[73] As part of the National Agreement for Skills
and Workforce Development, the Government also set targets for attainment in VET. These were to
halve the proportion of Australians aged 20 to 64 without a Certificate III or above, and to double the
number of diploma and advanced diploma completions.[74] Neither of these have been met.[75]

To meet the tertiary qualification needs of the future workforce, we will need a different focus which
better reflects the skills needs of the future. We also need new approaches to ensure Australia can
meet targets for low SES students and other groups underrepresented in higher education. This will
require a mix of VET and higher education delivery. The Australian Universities Accord Panel is
considering new attainment targets which recognise that more of the jobs of the future will require
post-school qualifications, and targets which support greater access and participation for students
from underrepresented backgrounds.


-----

As highlighted in Table 5.2, lifting the tertiary attainment of certain groups has considerable potential
to add to the skilled labour force. For example, if those from regional and remote areas had the same
attainment of bachelor’s degrees as the national average, this would represent around 360,000
additional higher qualified workers.[76] The Universities Accord Panel’s interim report proposes an
ambitious target of 55 per cent of 25 to 34 year olds having higher education qualifications by 2050.[ix]
It estimates that reaching this target will require an extra 300,000 students to be in Commonwealth
supported places by 2035 and an extra 900,000 students in Commonwealth supported places
by 2050.[77]

Table 5.2 Approximate number of people from underrepresented groups which would need a
higher level of qualification to reach the national average

Regional/remote First Nations Low English levels

Bachelor’s degree 360,000 70,000 60,000

Bachelor’s degree or higher 590,000 100,000 110,000

Certificate III & IV or higher 390,000 100,000 210,000

Year 12, Certificate III or equivalent attainment or above 800,000 120,000 90,000

Source: ABS Census, 2021.

Note: These figures are rounded and based on indicative calculations intended to demonstrate scale. Cross-over
between the different population groups has not been taken into account.

A significant share of increased tertiary attainment will need to be met through an increase in
enrolments by students from underrepresented backgrounds. In 2021, around 17 per cent of total
domestic undergraduate students were from a low SES background, around 19 per cent were from
regional and remote areas and two per cent were First Nations students.[x][,78] All of these groups remain
underrepresented in higher education.[79] To achieve 55 per cent higher education attainment and
parity across underrepresented students, the Universities Accord Panel’s analysis found that
60 per cent of the additional students in the system will need to be from low SES backgrounds, while
46 per cent will need to be from regional areas, seven per cent from remote areas and 11 per cent
from First Nations communities.[80]

#### Elevating VET pathways

Meeting workforce needs will also require an increase in the number of people with VET
qualifications. VET is a crucial source of skills in the labour market. Analysis from JSA shows that over
the year to May 2023, 52 per cent of total employment growth has been in skill level two to four
occupations where VET qualifications are the primary pathway.[81] The expected increase in higher
education as a proportion of the tertiary sector has not diminished the central role of VET.

However, perceptions and attitudes about VET pathways and lack of awareness about rewarding
career pathways can contribute to people choosing higher education over a vocational qualification.
This has consequences for students whose expected returns to training would be greater from VET
than higher education, and for shortages of in-demand vocational occupations.[82] The VET pathway is

ix These targets were informed by analysis from Oxford Economics Australia.

x Low SES uses SA1 (2016 SEIFA) classification, regional and remote uses 2016 ASGS classification.


-----

often not seen as equal to a university pathway, and students are often not provided with enough
information or encouragement to undertake VET in Year 11 or 12 or post-school.[83]

Providing VET pathways in schools is one way to connect students to opportunities and elevate its
attractiveness as an educational pathway. School-mediated work-based learning helps students gain
important career insights and empowers them in a way that cannot be replicated by off-the-job
training.[84] VET in schools has been associated with a 14 percentage point increase in school
completions and a 13 percentage point increase in the probability of pursuing further VET studies
followed by entry into the labour market earlier than people pursuing other pathways.[85]

As well as elevating VET as a pathway, we can help to address critical shortages by ensuring students
are completing their qualifications. Completion rates for apprenticeships have been declining steadily
over time. Only 55.8 per cent of the 2018 national apprenticeship and trainee cohort successfully
completed their apprenticeship.[86] Small and medium-sized businesses in particular can find it difficult
to commit to and support an apprentice or trainee due to a lack of resources compared to large
employers. Group training organisations (GTOs) – whose role is to employ apprentices and trainees
and place them with host businesses – can play a critical role in supporting both apprentices and small
and medium-sized employers. Apprenticeship and traineeship completion rates from GTOs are
generally higher compared to apprentices and trainees hired directly by small and medium
employers.[87]

Attracting more students to VET is of particular importance for trade qualifications, as labour market
shortages are most common for technician and trade workers occupations, with 47 per cent of
occupations in shortage in 2022. JSA also found that shortages of technicians and trades workers are
often persistent over time.[88] However, completion rates for trade apprenticeships are low – for 2018
commencements, trade completion rates were 53.4 per cent.[89] Completion rates in trades are even
lower for women (46.2 per cent), people with disability (42.6 per cent) and First Nations people
(42.6 per cent).[xi][,] [90]

While student enrolment and commencement is important, relatively high attrition rates highlight
that students facing disadvantage will need greater support to complete their studies. Education and
training providers have an important role to play in supporting students. To successfully complete an
apprenticeship, apprentices need personalised support and mentoring to manage mental health and
navigate workplace issues.[91]

### 5.3.3 Quality skills and training that meet industry needs

As well as ensuring enough people complete tertiary education and training, qualifications need to be
underpinned by skills that equip people for the workforce and are relevant to industry needs.

#### Lifting the quality of teaching and learning

Lifting the relevance and quality of training in VET must be a priority in meeting future skills needs.
VET qualifications that are up to date and support safety and quality in training outcomes make it
easier for employers to recruit and develop the skilled workers they need and provide students with a
pathway to secure, fairly paid work. Placing TAFE at the centre of the VET sector and elevating it as an
example of best practice will improve the quality of teaching and learning across the wider VET sector.

xi Completion rates are for 2018 commencing cohort in trade occupations. Total completion rate for this cohort was
53.4 per cent.


-----

Through an enhanced leadership role in the sector, TAFEs can lift the quality of VET by trialling
innovative teaching and learning approaches, developing new curriculum and course materials, and
supporting VET workforce initiatives.

Training providers need to be supported to deliver quality training, including through a capable
workforce, learning resources and facilities. This is important for TAFEs, which typically deliver priority
subjects that would not otherwise be offered by private providers and training in unprofitable areas or
thin markets. Lifting the quality of VET delivery is particularly needed in a range of courses where
existing training is not meeting employer needs. Employer satisfaction with nationally recognised
training has fallen from 83.1 per cent in 2013, to 78.7 per cent in 2021.[92] Satisfaction is lower for
employers using apprentices and trainees, at 74.2 per cent. Falling employer satisfaction can in part be
explained by perceptions of training quality. For example, 50.6 per cent of employers of apprentices
and trainees said training was poor quality or low standard (Chart 5.15).

Chart 5.15 Employers who cited training as poor quality or low standard as a reason for
dissatisfaction with training

**%**

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021

VET as a job requirement Apprentices and trainees Nationally recognised training

Source: NCVER Employer’s Use and Views of the VET System, 2021.

Concerns about training quality and relevance are not uniform but need to be addressed to increase
industry and student engagement and trust. Greater collaboration with industry, universities and
governments on national economic priorities would support high-quality learning. This could include
creating curriculum and applied learning opportunities that directly respond to skill demands and
increasing partnerships with industry. This will be a focus of the tripartite JSCs and the Qualifications
Reform Design Group established by the Government in August 2023.

More can also be done to promote high-quality learning and teaching in the higher education system
through a greater focus on students. Evidence suggests variability in teaching practices across higher
education is leading to disappointment for some students.[93] A more student-centred model of delivery


-----

and support, combined with more innovative curriculum and assessment design and delivery, is
needed to ensure students receive a high-quality education.

A core difference between higher education and VET is the ability to self-accredit courses. In higher
education, providers can apply to self-accredit courses of study, which allows providers significant
autonomy to update courses and qualification content. In VET, accredited courses must be
independently assessed by the Australian Skills Quality Authority or a state regulator. This does not
allow for the same level of flexibility to meet new industry or local labour market needs.

While the majority of VET providers deliver high-quality training, there is a small number of private
VET providers, particularly those who deliver international education, who may be enrolling
non-genuine students. Removing lower-quality, non-compliant providers from the tertiary education
sector would safeguard its reputation for quality. Similarly, removing information barriers for domestic
and international students to enable them to choose high-quality providers will improve the integrity
of the system and opportunities for students.

#### Creating industry-relevant training

An important part of making sure the skills taught in the education and training system are relevant
for the workforce is direct engagement with industry. JSCs are an example of working with industry to
elevate its voice and ensure training delivers better outcomes for learners and employers. The
Government has established ten JSCs across industries including agribusiness, manufacturing, energy,
gas and renewables, and finance, technology and business. The JSCs will identify skills needs for their
sectors, map career pathways, develop contemporary VET training products and improve training and
assessment practices. They will also work with JSA, drawing on its workforce analysis, to create a
consistent understanding of the skills landscape and how gaps can be addressed.

JSCs will also have a role in qualifications reform. VET qualifications reform aims to build on the
existing strengths of the VET system and ensure it is relevant to labour market needs and adapting to
the challenges and opportunities facing the economy.

Innovative and new qualifications will be a vital part of meeting industry needs. The development of
‘higher apprenticeships’ – which combine structured on-the-job training through apprenticeships with
study leading to degree-level qualifications – could provide opportunities for students to obtain
higher-level skills. This has the potential to engage more people in tertiary education and address the
skills needs of employers. Higher apprenticeships would allow students to develop more specialised
higher-level skills tailored to emerging skills needs, such as digital or cyber technology and advanced
manufacturing, not offered under traditional apprenticeship models.

Students engaging with industry and getting early exposure to workplaces can improve graduate
outcomes and skills matching.[94] Work-integrated learning generally refers to putting skills learnt
through study into practice in a work setting, can count towards credit, and mostly leads to a
qualification. Work-based learning – learning skills on the job as part of a qualification – also provides
an accessible option for students who face financial barriers to education and training. A Universities
Australia study found that in 2017, 37.3 per cent of students participated in work-integrated learning.
However, just as some student cohorts face barriers to accessing education, they also face barriers to
accessing work-integrated learning. Participation rates were lower for First Nations students
(31.1 per cent), students from low SES backgrounds (27.8 per cent) and remote students
(27.2 per cent).[95]


-----

### 5.3.4 Promoting ongoing and workplace learning

Lifelong learning supports labour market dynamism. As people participate in a more diverse range of
roles during their careers and live longer, they will increasingly need to upskill and reskill to adapt to
changing skills needs brought about by structural change.[96] Regular retraining as a central and habitual
part of participating in the workforce is the key to building transferable skills. Encouraging a culture of
lifelong learning for businesses and individuals will create a more flexible workforce which can more
effectively harness future labour market opportunities. This is especially important given Australia’s
relatively low overall management capability (as discussed in Chapter 4). Productivity gains for
businesses from upskilling managers could be three times higher than for upskilling workers.[97]

As well as greater uptake of lifelong learning, there needs to be greater recognition and a more
rigorous regime of prior learning and experience. Improved recognition of skills can facilitate learners
moving through and across the tertiary system and leads to better job matching. For example, many
people with caring responsibilities can have breaks in their education and work lives. During this time
delivering unpaid care, they may develop valuable skills that should be recognised when they enter
the labour force. Improved recognition of these skills will support them back into the workforce and
better help match people into appropriate jobs. Recognition of prior learning also facilitates labour
force participation by people following less linear career pathways.

The benefits of increased lifelong learning for business are significant. Employers benefit from a more
productive workforce that can adapt, make best use of digital technology and investments, and
innovate. Work-related training can bridge skills gaps by providing employer-specific skills and improve
employee satisfaction and retention. There is a role for government in ensuring appropriate
frameworks and information, as well as for employers who can play a leading role in workplace
training and skills development and supporting their employees to grow throughout their careers.

#### Workplace learning is important in upskilling the labour force

Workplace learning plays a critical role upskilling people across their careers and helping employers
build the skills they need in their workforce. However, Australia ranks in the bottom half of OECD
countries for improving the use of workers’ skills.[98] Australia also lags behind peers in the
United States, Canada and England for participation in adult education and training.[99] Less than a third
of Australian workers currently participate in work-related training each year and a quarter of all
employees in Australia reported unmet demand for training.[100] Industry experience supports these
findings, with a survey undertaken by the Business Council of Australia finding that 72 per cent of
people had not been offered any training or professional development by their employer in the past
two years.[101]

The highest prevalence of workplace training is in industries such as health care and social assistance
where ongoing training is often required as part of occupational accreditation.[102] Workers are more
likely to complete workplace training if they already have high levels of educational attainment, work
at a larger employer and are from a high SES background.[103] These patterns of training limit
opportunities for occupational mobility and career progression for people with lower educational
attainment and those working in smaller businesses, and slow the diffusion of new innovations and
technologies, reducing productivity (Chapter 4). Participation in workplace training is also lower
among those who work part-time, which is likely to reinforce disparities between men and women in
the workforce given women are more likely to work part-time.[104] There is a case for a greater focus on
the role of business in promoting targeted and work-relevant upskilling for these cohorts, especially in
areas of evolving digital and tech skills needs, and new technologies such as robotics and AI.


-----

The low level of workplace training is attributable to barriers faced by both workers and employers.
For workers, the main barriers to formal and informal adult education and training have consistently
been time and financial constraints.[105] However, between 2016–17 and 2020–21, there was also a
significant increase in a lack of available courses being reported as a barrier. People in regional and
remote Australia were almost twice as likely as those in major cities to report their main barrier to
learning as lack of course availability. This reflects the lower level of access and provision of education
for those living outside major cities.

Businesses may face similar barriers, including the cost of providing training and allocating time for an
employee to spend on training during the workday. Some businesses may be concerned about
investing in the skills of their staff if they are not sure an employee will stay with the firm, or if
upskilling their staff makes them more likely to be recruited by other employers. Stakeholders raised
mixed employer experiences of training and that for some employers, training provision can be
impacted by commercial factors which vary with the business cycle.

#### Action is needed to address barriers to workplace training

To improve uptake of workplace training and adult learning, attention should be given to the quality
and relevance of the training provided. Making businesses aware of courses which more effectively
target their skills needs is the first step to encouraging businesses to offer more training. For example,
employers may require a better understanding of how specific training may support them to upskill
staff to work with AI, or encourage use of within-workplace training delivery. The increased
prevalence of online delivery of training will assist employers to provide more workplace training.
Rates of online learning more than doubled from 19 per cent in 2016–17 to 55 per cent in 2020–21.[106]
For individuals, building a greater awareness of the different opportunities and benefits of upskilling
will be crucial. However, there are considerable challenges and barriers in the tertiary system that
prevent students from returning to study or from moving between VET and higher education.

Non-formal training can be a faster, cheaper and more flexible way to acquire knowledge. While not
formally recognised, non-formal training can provide skills in line with changing skills demands as it
does not require a lengthy approval process to develop the training package. There is scope to better
integrate support for upskilling while people are currently working, particularly for workers who are
likely to make the transition to new roles in the net zero transformation. There is also an opportunity
to provide better skills support as part of employment services.

One of the Government’s most important roles is ensuring the skills system enables and encourages
the workforce and employers to make efficient investments in new skills and training. Supporting the
development of shorter and stackable qualifications such as microcredentials is one way of doing this.
Microcredentials are shorter than existing Australian Qualifications Framework (AQF) qualifications
and build on broader core knowledge and skills. Where they contribute to a larger body of structured
and coherent knowledge, they may be aggregated into larger qualifications. New shorter forms of
education and training with multiple points of entry and exit will be required to rapidly build skills in
the workforce to address immediate skills needs. Qualifications that can take years are not always a
viable option for workers and businesses. People may not be able to spend long periods out of work to
study for financial reasons, and for businesses, longer qualifications are not timely enough to address
short-term needs. As tasks and jobs change at an accelerating pace, tertiary education will need to
provide more shorter, stackable and portable qualifications. As these new courses and qualifications
are created, employers need to take advantage of the opportunities they present by integrating these
courses into the workplace and providing more workplace training opportunities to their employees.


-----

Microcredentials provide a significant opportunity for stackable learning in a timely manner. While
there are no comprehensive data on microcredential offerings, they are starting to be incorporated
more broadly into Australia’s tertiary education system.[107] They have also been delivered through VET
for a number of years in the form of skillsets. However, approaches across providers to offering
microcredentials are mixed. Uncertainty around the recognition of microcredentials can make it
difficult for people to demonstrate the skills they have gained to employers, and hard for both parties
to verify the quality. Better acknowledgement and measurement of the different ways people upskill
across their lives will be an important aspect of promoting lifelong learning. While short-form
qualifications such as microcredentials are not currently recognised under the AQF, there are
opportunities to develop innovative methods of demonstrating skills development.

The current credentials system is also decentralised and does not provide a trusted information
source for all of a person’s qualifications and credentials information. Employers need to be able to
quickly and easily verify an employee’s credentials, and students and workers need to be able to
effectively demonstrate their skills to employers with ease. To realise the benefits of lifelong learning,
students and workers also need to be able to move between the VET and higher education systems
over their lifetime, which requires more recognition of prior learning and experience. Digital recording
of prior learning could support these aims and help to fill critical skills gaps and meet Australia’s labour
market needs. This would be underpinned by high-quality VET and higher education courses.

### 5.3.5 Better collaboration between VET and higher education

Meeting the skills needs of the future requires a whole-of-tertiary system approach. We have
historically viewed higher education and VET as two separate pathways but addressing the skills needs
of the future will require more collaboration. The setup of the current separate systems makes it
challenging for students to move easily between VET and higher education.[108] This is due to
differences in funding, information or regulation, a lack of credit transfer or the perceived status of
the different pathways. Reform is needed to help students study and upskill across both VET and
higher education over their lifetime, to take advantage of new opportunities presented by structural
change as the skills demanded by industry changes. The jobs of the future in care, net zero and digital
will need workers trained through both VET and higher education. This will require flexibility and
interoperability across the system while acknowledging the relative strengths of each sector and the
benefits of diversity.

#### Transitions across tertiary sectors are low, but increasing

Collaboration between VET and higher education is an important part of improving skills development
and building our future labour force. People are increasingly engaging in study and work pathways
that use both the higher education and VET sectors throughout their lives. VET is an important entry
pathway into higher education and is more likely to be used by students from low SES backgrounds,
regional students and First Nations students.[109] In 2021, 11.6 per cent of commencing domestic
undergraduate students used a VET award or enabling course as the basis for their admission into
higher education.[110] This proportion has been relatively stable over the last decade, but the proportion
of some cohorts using this pathway has increased. For example, 18.3 per cent of First Nations students
and 17.3 per cent of remote students used a VET course as the basis of their admission to higher
education (Chart 5.16).[111] The pathway VET provides to the higher education system is also important
for people to upskill and further their careers, particularly in priority sectors. For example, there is a
well-established pathway for enrolled nurses with a VET qualification to transition to being a
registered nurse, which requires a university qualification.


-----

Chart 5.16 Proportion of students entering higher education on the basis of a VET course

**%**

25

20

15

10

5

0

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

First Nations Students with disability Low SES Remote students All students

Source: Treasury; Department of Education Higher Education Statistics, 2021.

Increasing numbers of people are also undertaking VET qualifications to supplement the skills they
gained in their higher education qualification with more job-specific skills.[112] The proportion of VET
program enrolments where students have a bachelor’s degree or higher has risen from 9.6 per cent in
2018 to 10.8 per cent in 2022.[113] Facilitating more collaboration and seamless transitions between VET
and higher education is essential for creating the right skills mix and building the future workforce.

#### There are opportunities to make transitions across learning sectors easier

Creating a more flexible and interoperable tertiary education system must acknowledge the relative
strengths of each sector and the benefits of diversity. One way to do this is to leverage pathways and
occupations where there are existing connections between higher education and VET. For example,
there are some careers where students could take either a VET or higher education pathway such as
surveyors, graphic designers and medical laboratory technicians.[114] There are also opportunities for
one system to complement the other in building on qualifications. Qualifications in the education and
health sectors have well-developed pathways between VET and higher education because
accreditation is tied directly to requirements within occupations.

Credit transfer and recognition of prior experience is an important way of improving the connection
between higher education and VET. Limited credit transfer can create unnecessary barriers to further
skills development and inefficiencies when students have to duplicate their learning experience and
extend their time in education and training.[115] As universities are self-accrediting institutions,
admission practices and recognition of prior learning can differ significantly across providers. Credit
recognition also differs across fields of education.[116] In its current form, the AQF makes qualification
levels – and the skills and knowledge developed under them – difficult to understand and does not
sufficiently support transitions between VET and higher education. A lack of guidance and clarity in the
AQF also contributes to limited credit recognition.[117]


-----

Enhanced collaboration will be vital to delivering high-quality, industry-responsive qualifications.
Innovative methods of course delivery in teaching and research, which combine the strengths of VET
and higher education and the expertise of industry, can start to bridge the divide between the sectors.
In addition, developing or trialling new forms of qualifications will support efforts to increase
collaboration. These could be of particular use in areas of national priority, such as clean energy, the
care economy and defence.[118] Innovative tertiary collaboration models of teaching and learning are
already emerging across the country (Figure 5.1). Further tertiary collaborations including dual-sector
models of delivery may also help to elevate the perception and status of VET.

Figure 5.1 Selected Innovative Tertiary Collaboration Models

## 5.4 Building the future workforce will require careful planning and collaboration

A greater focus on growing Australia’s high-skilled workforce will help to address skills shortages and
to achieve productivity growth. Proactive workforce planning can assist to ensure that Australians are
gaining skills in priority areas, so they can be prepared to take advantage of emerging opportunities
and be resilient to potential challenges.


-----

In the future, Australia’s labour market will be increasingly shaped by the rising demand for quality
care and support services, increased use of digital and advanced technologies and the net zero
transformation. A data-driven approach as to how these forces will shape the economy could help to
inform settings for domestic skills and training and for effective migration strategies. Tailored,
integrated solutions will be required to ensure we can meet future skills needs in sectors where there
are unique challenges in relation to acute shortages.

The Government is committed to delivering a high quality and responsive education system.
Improving access and outcomes from the tertiary education sector, including through enhanced
collaboration, and promoting lifelong learning to assist in preparing our future workforce.


-----

## Endnotes

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2 National Skills Commission (Commonwealth of Australia), The state of Australia’s skills 2021: now and into
_[the future, (December 2021), https://www.nationalskillscommission.gov.au/reports/state-of-australia-skills-](https://www.nationalskillscommission.gov.au/reports/state-of-australia-skills-2021)_
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3 Victoria University, Projections for Jobs and Skills Australia, (2023).

4 National Skills Commission (Commonwealth of Australia), Employment Projections, (2022),
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5 National Skills Commission (Commonwealth of Australia), Emerging Occupations (August 2020),
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6 Jobs and Skills Australia analysis of Lightcast data (2018–2022).

7 Department of Employment (Commonwealth of Australia), Employment Outlook to November 2019, (2015),
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8 Natalie James, Secretary’s speech at the Ai Group’s PIR 2023, (Department of Employment and Workplace
[Relations July 2023), https://www.dewr.gov.au/about-department/announcements/secretarys-speech-ai-](https://www.dewr.gov.au/about-department/announcements/secretarys-speech-ai-groups-pir-2023-31-july-2023)
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9 Department of Defence (Commonwealth of Australia) projections.

10 National Centre for Vocational Education Research (Commonwealth of Australia), VET qualification

_[completion rates 2022, (August 2023), https://www.ncver.edu.au/research-and-statistics/publications/all-](https://www.ncver.edu.au/research-and-statistics/publications/all-publications/vet-qualification-completion-rates-2022)_
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11 Jackson et al., Working together to achieve better work integrated learning outcomes: Improving

_[productivity through better employer involvement, (November 2015), https://acen.edu.au/wp-](https://acen.edu.au/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/Working-together-to-achieve-better-WIL-outcomes.pdf)_
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12 Productivity Commission (Commonwealth of Australia), 5-year Productivity Inquiry: From learning to growth,

(2023); Andrew Norton, The first Job-ready Graduates university applications data, (October 2021),
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13 Department of Education (Commonwealth of Australia), Australian Universities Accord Interim Report,

[(2023), https://www.education.gov.au/australian-universities-accord/resources/accord-interim-report,](https://www.education.gov.au/australian-universities-accord/resources/accord-interim-report)
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14 Andrew Norton, Jobs, interests and student course choices, (June 2020),

[https://andrewnorton.net.au/2020/06/21/jobs-interests-and-student-course-choices/,](https://andrewnorton.net.au/2020/06/21/jobs-interests-and-student-course-choices/)
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15 Cherastidtham, I., Norton, A. & Mackey, W., University attrition: what helps and what hinders university

_[completion?, (Grattan Institute 2018), https://grattan.edu.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/University-](https://grattan.edu.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/University-attrition-background.pdf)_
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16 Norton, A., Financial influences on job-seeking university applicants, (June 2020),

[https://andrewnorton.net.au/2020/06/28/financial-influences-on-job-seeking-university-applicants/,](https://andrewnorton.net.au/2020/06/28/financial-influences-on-job-seeking-university-applicants/)
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17 Goss, P., Sonnemann, J. & Nolan, J., Attracting High Achieving Teachers to Teaching, (Grattan Institute 2019),

[https://grattan.edu.au/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/921-Attracting-high-achievers-to-teaching.pdf,](https://grattan.edu.au/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/921-Attracting-high-achievers-to-teaching.pdf)
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18 Department of Education, Skills and Employment (Commonwealth of Australia), Looking to the future:

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19 Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet (Commonwealth of Australia), Incentivising excellence:

_Attracting high-achieving teaching candidates, (February 2022),_
[https://behaviouraleconomics.pmc.gov.au/sites/default/files/projects/incentivising-excellence-full-](https://behaviouraleconomics.pmc.gov.au/sites/default/files/projects/incentivising-excellence-full-report.pdf)
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20 Department of Education analysis of Quality Indicators for Learning and Teaching Graduate Outcomes

Survey.

21 Department of Education, Skills and Employment (Commonwealth of Australia), ‘Looking to the future:

Report of the Review of senior secondary pathways into work, further education and training’, (June 2020),
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[Review’, (December 2020), https://www.pc.gov.au/inquiries/completed/skills-workforce-](https://www.pc.gov.au/inquiries/completed/skills-workforce-agreement/report/skills-workforce-agreement.pdf)
[agreement/report/skills-workforce-agreement.pdf, accessed 25 August 2023.](https://www.pc.gov.au/inquiries/completed/skills-workforce-agreement/report/skills-workforce-agreement.pdf)

22 Committee for Economic Development of Australia, ‘A good match: Optimising Australia’s permanent skilled

[migration’, (2021), https://www.ceda.com.au/Admin/getmedia/150315bf-cceb-4536-862d-](https://www.ceda.com.au/Admin/getmedia/150315bf-cceb-4536-862d-1a3054197cd7/CEDA-Migration-report-26-March-2021-final.pdf)
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23 Booth, A., Leigh, A., & Varganova, E., ‘Does ethnic discrimination vary across minority groups? Evidence from

a field experiment’, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, (2021),
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24 Flinders University Migrant Skills Mismatch Analysis of Multi-Agency Data Integration Project data.

25 Batainah, H., Hawkins, J. & Miranti, R., ‘Untapped Potential: Trends and disparities in the economic

participation of migrant refugee women in Australia’, National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling,
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26 Varela, P. et al., The lifetime fiscal impact of the Australian permanent migration program, (Treasury 2021);

Cai et al., ‘Modelling Fiscal Policy with OLGA: Treasury’s OverLapping Generations model of the Australia
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27 Department of Home Affairs, Review of the Migration System Final Report, (2023),

[https://www.homeaffairs.gov.au/reports-and-pubs/files/review-migration-system-final-report.pdf, accessed](https://www.homeaffairs.gov.au/reports-and-pubs/files/review-migration-system-final-report.pdf)
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28 National Skills Commission (Commonwealth of Australia), Employment Projections, (2022),

[https://www.nationalskillscommission.gov.au/topics/employment-projections, accessed](https://www.nationalskillscommission.gov.au/topics/employment-projections)
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29 Australian Government, ‘Budget Paper No. 1: Budget Strategy and Outlook’, (Canberra: 2023),

[https://budget.gov.au/content/documents.htm, accessed 25 May 2023.](https://budget.gov.au/content/documents.htm)

30 Victoria University, Projections for Jobs and Skills Australia, (2023).

31 Treasury (Commonwealth of Australia), Intergenerational Report 2023: Australia’s future to 2063,

(August 2023).

32 Victoria University, Projections for Jobs and Skills Australia, (2023).


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