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September 2008
Hello: Ricardo Miller (2010)
Michigan's first commitment for the class of 2010, is no surprise: it's FL WR Ricardo Miller, the strapping kid from spectacularly named Dr. Phillips High School in Orlando. Miller is a junior, so information on him is a little sparse, but what exists follows.
There aren't any yet, but a friend of the blog who works for Florida Football Magazine conveniently brought Miller up apropos of nothing in an IM conversation yesterday. The oracle spake thusly:
As you'll see in the magazine we're really high on Ricardo Miller. Like super high. Like best receiver in the class of 2010 high.
It's not clear whether he meant "in Florida" or "in the universe" but those two things aren't often that different. The magazine itself ranks Miller the #2 player in Florida's the class of 2010, saying this:
Big, strong, and fast, Miller could be playing for a major college right now but he's only a junior. He was the star of many off-season 7-on-7 tournaments.
Miller's an outside receiver at 6'2" or 6'3" and between 180 and 205 pounds.
Miller has an impressive suite of offers for a junior: Florida, Tennessee, South Florida, Central Florida, and Stanford. Also Michigan, obviously.
I couldn't find any from his sophomore year; I know he's been targeted heavily so far this season.
Miller's 40 time is actually in the vaguely plausible range, as he's reportedly run a 4.47. This is still probably fake since he's a big guy and that was run when he was just as sophomore, but it only gets one FAKE, not three.
You know a kid is an impressive prospect if he's got freely available sophomore video, yes?
Mmmmm, "tight end" end around. Tight end around?
There's also a touchdown catch from his junior year here.
The evidence is flimsier than normal this time, but as we saw with Will Campbell the kind of guys who get offered this early by a wide array of schools are often OMG shirtless sorts. Given the buzz emanating from Florida this seems a likely outcome for Miller; he should be a slam dunk for top 100 lists next year and has a chance at five stars.
Side note: Miller carries a 3.8 GPA and is considering early enrollment.
Miller's a hell of a start to the 2010 class; it's fortunate that Michigan lucked into a kid who needed zero convincing of where he wanted to go in a year that otherwise might have been a tough sell with freshman quarterbacks and Threet and whatnot. With Stonum, McNeal, and Miller, Michigan will have three elite outside WR recruits in consecutive years with some attractive options (Roundtree, Peace, whoever comes in with Miller in 2010) waiting in the wings should the headliners fail to live up to their billing.
If MI WR Jeremy Jackson—son of RB coach Fred Jackson—decides to stay home, Michigan could lock up a monster 2010 WR class faster than you can say something that doesn't take very long to say.
Etc.: If you hate your eyes, here's Miller's myspace page; an August article from AthleteVault.com; commit article from Rivals; get your I love Ricardo Miller t-shirt.
Tuesday Recruitin'
Update 9/30: Linked to articles on FL WR Jeremy Gallon, MD LB Jelani Jenkins (video), LA WR Rueben Randle, CA QB commit Tate Forcier, VA DE Will Hill, SC DE Chris Bonds, header on FL CB Mywan Jackson, FL LB Mike Marry (video), CA WR Shaquelle Evans, FL S Vladimir Emilien, Moved MI S Thomas Gordon to committed. Would move 2010 FL WR Ricardo Miller to committed if I had a 2010 board.
Added AZ OL Taylor Lewan.
Little scouting bits on MD DE Jason Ankrah and MD CB Travis Hawkins. SI/Takkle has put out a top 200; another article on Jenkins and Randle. A teammate of Pahokee commits Vincent Smith and Brandin Hawthorne was shot and killed this weekend; Michigan is recruiting another Pahokee kid but I think he's on the back burner.
As per usual, some links from Varsity Blue, and comprehensive commit stats.
Editorial Opinion: Recruiting board lives here.
First, something horrible in the lives of Brandin Hawthorne, Vincent Smith, and Martavious Odoms:
PAHOKEE — High school football standout Norman Griffith was only the latest shooting victim in a region afflicted by steadily escalating gun violence, authorities said today.
Griffith, a senior and team captain, was shot in the head and killed about 1 a.m. Saturday as he was driving from a dance in Belle Glade at Southwest 12th Street and Martin Luther King Jr. Boulevard. His teammates, many of whom have had trouble sleeping, gathered this afternoon to mourn him at the Pahokee Parks and Recreation facility, where many of the boys played youth football with Griffith.
Griffith was going to play college football somewhere; the photo gallery accompanying the article is worth checking out.
And now for something completely different:
Two commits in the past couple days, one from Cass Tech safety Thomas Gordon. Gordon is a three-star sort but one with a good alibi: he never played safety, the position he projects to in college, until his senior year. Once he did he picked up quick MSU and Michigan offers. I'll get a "hello" post up on him in the near future.
The other, well…
2010 Ho!
2010 FL WR Ricardo Miller made it no secret he was going to commit to Michigan as soon as they offered, and Michigan offered last night so he committed. I'll get a hello post up on him, too, but the one sentence synopsis: Miller's an outside receiver who's likely to be a top-five player in Florida next year; he already had a Florida offer. Florida Football Magazine ranks him the #2 player in Florida's class of 2010.
OMG tiny shirtless:
Despite appearances, Miller is not I repeat not a slot receiver.
So Miller is in the fold and is likely to be a big recruit, and if you wander over to FL S Marvin Robinson's myspace page (as always, a warning: myspace pages make you want to claw your eyes out) he's renamed himself "bout to verbal commit to the University of Michigan." Robinson came up for summer camp as a rising sophomore last year and was impressive enough to pick up an offer there; he's been favoring Michigan since. Florida Football Magazine ranks him the #6 player in the state at this early juncture.
And then I spent like way too much time trying to figure out just who in the hell this gentleman is because he's changed his name to "Yep! Yep! If My Bro Goin Big Blue I Am To!!" and myspace is the world's least pleasant software. It turns out he's John Lewis, an unranked 2008 linebacker recruit from the same high school who now appears to be at a JUCO—I can think of no other reason a kid from Lake Region, Florida, would end up in Fort Dodge, Iowa—and has pictures of himself in a Michigan hat splattered all over his site. He did visit M last year with Robinson, but he came back excited about a potential offer from Eastern Michigan.
I don't know what's up with that, as I find it hard to believe he's got an offer what with his ranking and Michigan's historic aversion to JUCOs. Maybe a walk-on?
Defensive ends dropping.
Michigan could probably use a third defensive end in the 2009 class, but with Anthony Lalota and Craig Roh in the fold we're likely to see the great majority of the players on the board slip away. Candidate #1 is SC DE Chris Bonds:
As for his recruiting, Bonds has visited Notre Dame officially and is scheduled to visit Tennessee October 25th. With this down time due to the injury, Bonds said he might move up his other visits. He plans to set dates with Southern Cal and Alabama. Michigan has been on list of visits but he said he's not sure he'll schedule that one. Bonds said right now Notre Dame and Southern Cal are tied at the top of his list.
He's on the board for now in case he does schedule that visit.
Meanwhile, VA DE Will Hill seems to be leaning to Tennessee if you take circumstantial evidence into account. He camped there, visited for the Florida game, and is considering a return trip for Alabama. Possibility 1: he really likes Tennessee. Possibility two: he really hates Tennessee and enjoys watching them get blasted. Michigan remains under consideration:
Hill said he plans to take official visits to Michigan and South Carolina before he announces his decision. Unofficial trips to evaluate Virginia and Maryland are also likely possibilities.
Much has been written of late about the two five-star recruits Michigan is pursuing other than MI DT Will Campbell. Sam Webb had an extensive article on MD LB Jelani Jenkins, who's visited. His father lays out some of the decision parameters:
"Basically we have a matrix that we did on each school," Maurice Jenkins explained. "Part of that matrix is the strength of academics and academic facilities. In Michigan's case, they have an awesome facility there, so you can see they take the academics very seriously.
"One other criterion was that we wanted a team with national exposure that potentially plays in the (BCS) bowl games. Diversity is very important, as is a city that we feel is safe. We want an environment that is diverse where they have respect for different people.
"The strength and conditioning program is real important to us, too, because that is the thing that keeps him on the football field. They have a real strong strength and conditioning coach up there (at Michigan)."
Some eeee Barwis follows, and the general impression given by the article is that Michigan is guaranteed to be in Jenkins top five and could be even better positioned from that. On WTKA Webb didn't go so far as he did with some of the other kids who have committed over the past few weeks, but he kind of sounded like he thought Michigan would be the choice if today was signing day. And how's that for a convoluted sentence? Attempt two: Michigan is in good, not great shape. If we're going by article sources alone, LSU and Penn State appear to be in decent shape as well.
LA WR Rueben Randle is the other five star listing Michigan pretty high, though most are expecting him to stay in-state:
"I want to see what it is like up there," Randle told TigerBait.com, a site that covers LSU football. "That is pretty much the only one that I have set right now. I don't know the date yet, but I would like to make a trip up to Ann Arbor."
Randle plays for Bastrop, the home of DT commit DeQuinta Jones, and has an existing relationship with LB coach Jay Hopson.
The Times-Picayune had an extensive profile of Randle recently that mostly deals with how sweet he is as a wide receiver. Recruiting isn't touched on much until the end, but a quote from the man himself:
"I'm going to try to go where I can play (quickly) and where I'm most comfortable," Randle said. "There's really nothing more important to me than that, other than academics. Academics are important."
And then his coach:
I think he knows where he wants to go," Bradshaw said. "Or he's at least got a feel for it if he doesn't already know. He's too intelligent not to know. He's got it narrowed down."
"If he wants to go to a school that can win a national championship and where he can get a good edcuation, that should whittle the list down considerably. There's only a handful of schools that can do that, in my opinion."
That quote plus the "I only have an official to Michigan" quote above… promising? Maybe? I'm still betting on LSU.
Flippity floppin'.
Header on FL CB Mywan Jackson:
UNC Now Leading for Jackson
Jackson's got a Michigan visit scheduled for later and seems like the type of kid who is BLOWN AWAY by wherever his last visit was to, so he's not necessarily a goner.
Ohio State is the one doing the flippity floppin' on FL S Vladimir Emilien:
"Coach Fickell and I had a long talk on the phone and we agreed to get together again next week to talk a little further about this situation. I was glad to hear from them again, because I've always liked Ohio State, but the fact is that they went about two months without contacting me at all. I had removed them from my list, but now I've got to put them back up there again."
OSU was Emilien's heavy leader before they picked up six defensive backs and kinda-sorta-dropped him; I don't know if they're guarding against a decommit or just wanted to screw with Michigan's chances or what.
Emilien will be up for the Michigan State game on October 24th; he plans a Wisconsin visit two weeks earlier and may take a Stanford trip in November. He plans on committing November 23rd, his birthday. Assuming that Ohio State doesn't have room for him—and I really doubt they do—this looks good for M.
Also in that article is a mention of TX K commit Anthony Fera taking a trip to Penn State. No one thinks this is serious, FWIW.
Going to be ready.
This ESPN article on the battle over homeschooled kids playing for public schools starts off unpromisingly for M fans:
"I'll tell my teacher, 'I have a game today,'" Forcier said. "He'll say, 'That's fine; you don't have to come.' And I'll go to my football school and watch film all day."
In the middle it improves, though:
"He wasn't getting the special attention he needed," said Forcier, who added that Tate's SAT score now is nearly good enough for him to attend Stanford.
And it finishes with a flourish:
There is an added benefit for the player who might one day run coach Rich Rodriguez's spread offense. Because he can set his own schedule, he is able to attend extra workouts with Marv Marinovich, a trainer for the Sports Lab in San Juan Capistrano, Calif.
"Most kids don't do more than two or three workouts a week because they're so busy," Forcier said. "I'm doing five or six. On the train [to the workout], I'm doing homework. On the way back, homework. We broke it down pretty well."
Forcier said that when father and son first discussed the possibility of such a schedule, his father had one reaction about the benefits: "Now, we're going to build your ass up until you look like Tebow."
Forcier will probably be at least as ready as Chad Henne was as a freshman, and with his accuracy will press Threet from day one.
Etc.: This article on CA WR Shaquelle Evans speculating about an ND lead is probably misleading; the article referenced is just a standard "Recruit X is BLOWN AWAY" by visit that contains no directly informative quotes from Evans. Michigan remains on the visit list and remains a longshot. FL LB Mike Marry has M in his top seven.
Unverified Voracity Recaps Wooo
Wooo! The two-pointer as viewed from the student section:
More postgame revelry captured by camera phones can be found at WCBN. Michigan Football Saturdays has a convenient roundup of the various informational links.
Meanwhile… celebratory posts abound:
- The HSR says [obligatory "rock band" guitar miming] "don't stop believin'." [/miming] Some unruly Wisconsin fans are called out. (FWIW, the ones in our section were all fine except one guy who stood up for almost everything.)
- The WLA has two separate reaction pieces.
- GSimmons has an excellent post from his perspective as a coach.
- Varsity Blue has some bullets.
- In the Diaries there's an… uh… running diary from wolverine32, a simple declaration that Chrisgocomment loves Michigan football, a Saturday relived, and Lordfoul's recap. Uh… and a seriously serious suggestion (we're from serious) that we hire Kirk Ferentz.
Sample the bounty of the internet and laugh contemptuously the next time someone pines for the old days when we'd get Mitch Albom's column and that's it.
BTW, the winner of last week's Awesome Diary = T Shirt Contest was, unsurprisingly, drexel, who got his Wisconsin scouting report bumped to the front page. May I suggest now is the time to get your Bow Down, Little Brother shirt? Or Zoltan For Space Emperor? Topical!
I loled. Cute kids watching the first half of the Wisconsin game, and then a punch line:
That man wins the dry sarcasm award of the week.
We're what? Whenever I post anything about lines four people correct me, but it's worth trying again:
That's the opening line from LVSC. Michigan is… favored? Elsewhere I've seen Michigan –2 and Michigan –2.5, which… wow. I know Illinois has been seivetastic on defense this year and squeaked by a Sun Belt team by three but I have also watched Michigan this year.
Eeee? I was all ready to fire up the Barwis bandwagon once again in the wake of this quote from Brandon Minor…
"There was one play and I ran down the field for an incompletion, and the linebacker that was chasing me, he was out of breath," Wolverines running back Brandon Minor said. "I came back a couple more plays and then scored. I still wasn't tired till my team beat me up on the sideline."
…but, uh… Minor's final line for the game: two carries for 35 yards and one catch for 11. He was in considerably more than he had been the past few games, but this does not exactly seem like a miraculous workload.
At least there's that. Apparently there was no replay of the critical roughing the passer penalty that turned fourth and fifteen into a first down and eventually a touchdown, but someone on the Wisconsin board has a set of images that appear to show it was a good call. FWIW.
Numberin'. Reader Alton provides a link to a mathematical breakdown of two point conversions by lead and time remaining. The data in the cells is what percentage chance you must exceed to make two points the best choice.
The slot for up one with twelve minutes left: 28%. The slot for nine minutes left: 21%. For about 10:30, then, it's reasonable to assume it was the right call if Michigan had a 25% chance to punch it in.
Another reader objects, saying that chart makes an awful lot of assumptions and can't be taken as gospel, and he's right, but I think the assumptions the chart makes—like the offenses in question are NFL-average ones versus NFL-average defenses—actually bias the chart in such a way that they overstate the necessary percentage for the call to be a good idea. This was not a close decision.
Etc.: Good stuff from Football Outsiders that's close to what my idea of a better set of college football statistics would be.
We're From Phoenix
9/26/2008 – Michigan 27, Wisconsin 25 – 2-2, 1-0 Big Ten
I don't have to tell you it was ugly at first, but an illuminating example: at a couple points in the first half when the guy with the red hat was on the field various family members of mine stood up because we're natural standers frustrated by the usual decorum of our section.
A set of ancients crabbed at them to sit down despite, you know, the lack of anything to see other than a guy with a red hat standing on the field, and when this was finally annoying enough for someone to respond with the obvious riposte about the red hat a full-scale verbal confrontation ensued in which the crabs behind us simultaneously complained about how we were violating the stadium announcer's request to treat our fellow seatmates with respect and called my cousin "fatso."
I thought but did not say "I know you are wearing a hat that indicates you fought at the battle of Antietam but don't think I won't smash your skull into splinters."
At halftime, Michigan had 21 yards. I tried to hide from the sun and list all the things I would rather do than watch the second half.
At the beginning of the year we were all confronted by an unexpected cost imposed by the massive turnover in coaches and star players: Michigan seemed a little like laundry we wanted to win, and sucky laundry at that. They wore the wrong numbers and ran the wrong way and certainly played the wrong way and goddammit where was Mike Hart?
We know college football players not as people but as things that have transpired on the field. By the story arcs their careers trace out, tragedy or comedy. Without those—without even Lloyd Carr's story to fall back on—the first few games of the season were strangely numb. They lost to Utah? Okay. They lost by 18 to Notre Dame? Okay. You can go back and check the columns here: serenity reigned. That was born from detachment.
Johnny at RBUAS captured this sentiment perfectly:
Mike, Jake and Chad risked their dignity and only left with a little of it, but they came back in the first place by choice, because of something bigger. As for the guys that are still here, Trent and Jamison are mostly quiet and patient and had no place else to go. And no matter how jubilant and grateful Terrance might seem, he knew how much money could be made by coming back. I don't hesitate to say that wins this year won't be as satisfying as wins last year were. Not enough of these players have suffered yet.
Those people out there aren't Mike, Jake, and Chad but Threet and McGuffie (or Shaw or Minor or Brown or Grady) and I'm Not Sure Who The Left Tackle Is This Week.
But there is no better one-word description for the first half Saturday than "suffering," and Johnny Thompson is always going to be the guy who picked off Allan Evridge. Steven Threet could have four years of moments good and bad in him but I suspect to me he'll always be looking over his shoulder at Wisconsin safeties, just as shocked at what is transpiring as everyone else.
After it was over I did something I hadn't done since I was a kid making paper airplanes out of the free programs and throwing confetti* in the air whenever Michigan scored. I went down to the tunnel as the players exited the field and watched them go: Taylor boisterous, high fiving anyone he came across, Warren stoic, the Coner completely neutral until someone thumped his shoulder pads in congratulations. The only thing that betrayed Kevin Koger and his old man beard as an 18 year old, not an Antietam veteran, was the kid-on-Christmas-morning smile stretching from ear-to-ear. A blood-soaked band-aid hung from Thompson's chin, gamely sticking to a couple of hairs in his ragged beard. Barwis looked like he was stuck in a paint shaker.
These are no longer strangers. I know how they run, and they are mine. I wanted to say something to them, to wrap everything that had just transpired into a sentence and give it to them, to tell them about ashes and hope and the future. But nothing came.
After Brandon Minor's touchdown run I turned around to see what the crabs were thinking and perhaps to say something unkind. They had left at halftime.
This is what I should have said: "Those who stay will be champions."
- Thanks, karma! The entire crab sequence was awesome.
- Carson Butler got suspended and Mike Massey flailed around a bit before being replaced by Kevin "My Name Lacks An R" Koger, who proceeded to do nothing obviously wrong and then caught a seam route touchdown. If they're going to burn a redshirt, it might as well be for a 30-yard touchdown, and since he doesn't seem appreciably worse than either of the two nominal starters I say let it ride.
- This is what I am talking about with the "It's Great To Be A Michigan Wolverine" chant. It should be kept in reserve for Events.
- I'm sorry to have to be the one to tell you this, but if you booed the team you're an asshat. You wear asses for hats. Yes, you may have the purchased the right to boo your asshat-wearing heads off, but you are also taking your frustration out on a team that's obviously trying really hard but just kind of sucks from time to time. Booing the coaches is your excuse? Don't care, the players couldn't tell, and now they probably think we're all asshats because of you. You have a "right" to boo. You also have the right to give your grandmother the finger and call her a harlot.
- The block M in the student section was not epic fail but it did look a little squat from my vantage point.
- What is the point of replay if they aren't going to overturn that ridiculous Wisconsin "reception" in the fourth quarter? Even the Wisconsin fans in our section thought that was a terrible call.
- As I was walking home these guys behind me were having an extended conversation about how Rodriguez was dumb to go for two. One: they were wrong. Two: seriously? Seriously this is what you're focusing on instead of one of the best games in Michigan Stadium history? It must suck to be those guys.
- Those guys at the 1997 OSU game: "It should never have been that close."
- Those guys at the birth of their children: "he has a disappointingly shaped head, did you have to push so hard?"
- Those guys in the space machine vortex thingy from Contact: "you should have sent a poet. I'm just a guy who has no understanding of game theory. I'm not even enjoying this because I don't have someone belting out quatrains about these stupid galaxies."
*(Also made from the free programs. Those things are clutch when you're ten.)
Going For Two
Game column coming.
There's been a lot of debate in the aftermath of the Wisconsin game about whether or not Rodriguez made the right call after Johnny Thompson's interception return touchdown put Michigan up 20-19 with about ten minutes left.
The answer: absolutely, and it's not close. Let's break it down into three scenarios:
YOU GET TWO. Okay, you're up three, which means a field goal ties the game instead of winning it.
YOU GET ONE. Field goal means you lose. If you score another touchdown you have a likely-impregnable two score lead.
YOU GET ZERO. Field goal means you lose; if you score another touchdown Wisconsin can tie the game by scoring their own touchdown and going for two.
You can cancel a lot of stuff out because there are only two realistic scenarios in which the go-for-two situation is relevant: one UW field goal or a touchdown for each team and a Wisconsin two-point conversion. In all other cases outside of bizarroland, the decision doesn't matter.
At the time Rodriguez was trying to decide whether or not to go, Michigan had about 180 yards of total offense. Virtually all of that came on two inexplicable long touchdown drives; on Michigan's other ten drives they collected one first down and 31 total yards.
Wisconsin, meanwhile, had been gifted five first-half turnovers and largely squandered them. They had 248 yards of offense on 14 drives. They were averaging 18 yards every time they got the ball, and only had the points they did due to Michigan's largesse and a huge number of opportunities.
This was not exactly that 54-51 Northwestern game, where you were virtually guaranteed to see the opponent skate down the field and punch the ball in. This was a defensive slugfest between two teams heavily biased to the run, and it would take a highly unusual event like Dual Threet loping 60 yards with the Wisconsin secondary in tow to make the difference between one and zero even moderately relevant.
This is in fact what happened, but since Rich Rodriguez isn't the Kwisatz Haderach he didn't know what the future held in store and did the obvious thing: attempt to keep a field goal from beating you. Protesting that "you don't know what's going to happen" is weak sauce when you've got a pretty good idea that scenario A is far less likely than scenario B.
Anyone who disagrees is more than welcome to email me with invitations to high-stakes poker games.
IE Issues
I have no idea why this is happening in IE7:
Does anyone out there know? It disappears after you click around a bit. Please email me if you do; I've been looking at it forever and can't figure it out.
My suggestion to anyone getting this: click on a diary entry and then click back. I think that might work.
Update: a couple readers sent in fixes; I think this issue should be dead now.
Wisconsin Open Thread
If you're unfamiliar with the situation on these please check out the Live Blog Chaos Mitigation Post; action should get started around 3 PM.
Preview: Wisconsin
Run Offense vs. Wisconsin
It took all of three games for the M-Den to start selling Sam McGuffie jerseys, and the off week has allowed Carlos Brown and Michael Shaw to get healthy. Could… maybe… good happen?
Against Notre Dame, Michigan alternated gashing runs with stuffed plays that were often mental errors on the part of various blockers. Notre Dame then ran out and ceded 200-some yards to Javon Ringer, but 63 of those were on a long carry late when Notre Dame was playing aggressively in the faint hope of getting the ball back on a three-and-out. Before that they had contained Ringer pretty well. They might not be completely atrocious on defense.
Wisconsin, however, is an entirely different ball of wax. This clip from the recently-posted Wisconsin scouting report is worrisome:
#91 [DT Jason Chapman] and #92 [DE Matt Shaughnessy] are their best players on defense. They are extremely quick off the ball and were very good at disrupting Fresno's zone running play. 91 is DT and just blew by people several times. He was also offsides two or three times, so I think we will get some easy 5 yard gains here and there. But Molk has got to be quick end get off the ball with power this week. This guy cannot spend the afternoon in Michigan's backfield or we will not be able to run the ball.
Michigan spent much of the ND game effectively doubling whichever DT was lined up to the playside, getting enough depth on their push to wash out pursuing linebackers. With Chapman appearing to be more of a penetrating, risk-taker sort there could be an enormous amount of variance in the effectiveness of run plays: when he loses his gamble he could run himself right out of the play or end up pancaked downfield; when he wins McGuffie is going to have to deal with a guy in his face far too often. Bruce Ciskie, meanwhile, is extremely concerned about Wisconsin's linebackers and their angles of pursuit. There appears to be some chance Michigan's run game functions decently.
However, I'm not super enthusiastic about that chance. In 2006—the year that Michigan's zone left was at maximum effectiveness—Wisconsin slashed into the Michigan backfield time and again and it was only the ineffable brilliance of Mike Hart that prevented a dozen TFLs. That was the same defensive philosophy and even some of the same players—Chapman and Shaughnessy have been around forever—Michigan will face tomorrow. Here's the UFR from that year:
Michigan spent around half of its first downs running into eight guys and another chunk running into seven from a three-wide set, which is functionally equivalent. Fully 20(!) of Michigan's 26 plays on first down were runs*, which is a big flashing sign that says "BAD OLD DAYS" to me. A big reason that Hart's YPC average to date is somewhat disappointing is his frequent deployment into obvious rush defenses. He's still doing his thing, but a combination of bad blocking and predictable playcalling means he's dodging tacklers at or before the line of scrimmage instead of three yards downfield.
The end result was a lot of plays where Hart turned something that should have been zero yards into four.
Can McGuffie do that? I don't know. I think he's much less likely to burrow forward for positive yards in bad situations and that Michigan will be facing a lot of long-yardage situations if he's dodging guys before he gets to the LOS.
This will be an interesting test for all sorts of Michigan-affiliated players: McGuffie and Shaw and various linemen going up against a tough Big Ten defense and Rodriguez and Magee, given a bye week with which to implement some counters, traps, and other plays that hope to play off of Wisconsin's tendency to aggression.
Key Matchup: I'm a broken record here, but: the interior line against Wisconsin's DTs. Michigan won this battle handily against Notre Dame and now takes up a more formidable foe.
Pass Offense vs. Wisconsin
Steven Threet's radical maturation into an honest to God quarterback gives Michigan hope for the future and a fighting chance going into Big Ten season. He's a freshman, though, and the rest of the year figures to be something of a roller-coaster.
Against Notre Dame, Darryl Stonum, Greg Mathews, and Martavious Odoms were the main options. Odoms got open consistently on wheel routes; Mathews dug out a number of tough balls and almost hauled in a spectacular touchdown; Stonum was the beneficiary of some attention paid to Odoms. All three seem like potential playmakers, and then there's the somewhat injured Junior Hemingway. There appears to be a lot of available talent in the WR corps if Threet can maintain his level of performance.
As far as Wisconsin goes: Michigan fans will be familiar with Detroiter Allen Langford, who's been decided average in his career to date. He is a senior with multiple years of starting under his belt, though, and will probably be at least all right. His bookend is not Jack Ikegwuonu by some other guy named Mario Goins. I don't think anyone really knows much about him yet, including Wisconsin.
Wisconsin year to date:
|Fresno State
That's one okay performance, one great one, and one kinda-dodgy one. I think there's more raw ability in the Michigan skill players than there is in the Wisconsin secondary and if they run the right routes and Threet gets them the ball they can have some success. Wisconsin's pass rush hasn't been great and Michigan's pass blocking has been surprisingly good.
Also: with Wisconsin sticking to base sets most of the time, there should be some opportunity for Martavious Odoms to get loose on the perimeter.
Key Matchup: Odoms versus linebackers. Michigan has to make Wisconsin pay if they're going to stick in their base sets.
Run Defense vs. Wisconsin
Two weeks ago I wrote this in the Notre Dame preview:
The run defense is not as good as you might think it is, as the avalanche of sacks the team has unleashed distorts those numbers considerably. Miami's lead back averaged 3.7 yards a carry and Utah's main two guys combined for 94 yards on 21 carries, 4.5 per. That's slightly harsh because both teams occasionally used their quarterbacks as runners and got stuffed doing it, but the point stands: this is not the country's fourth-best rushing defense.
It's not like Michigan's rushing defense was a disaster against ND, but it wasn't exactly inspiring; Michigan performed on a par with SDSU and considerably worse than Michigan State. Time and again Johnny Thompson lost his battle with the fullback.
Meanwhile, Wisconsin is Wisconsin, the ultimate beef machine. Their linemen: large. Their tailbacks: large. Their fullback: large and actually named "Rentmeester." Their intent: to run straight. Their success so far:
|Fresno State
Hey… that doesn't seem so imposing, especially when you consider there are no sacks in those numbers. Okay, so they smoked Akron but we're talking about Akron here, and if Michigan holds Wisconsin to 150-some yards on the ground they probably aren't racking up a million billion points against Warren and Trent and company. Well. Maybe they aren't.
I just don't see it, though. Notre Dame is not good at the smashmouth thing and did all right. Wisconsin is and projects to do better than all right. I'd be happy if Michigan turned in numbers comparable with Fresno State above.
Key Matchup: Ezeh and Thompson against the fullback. I bet Wisconsin follows the same tack Notre Dame does, doubling the hell out of the DTs and relying on the LBs to mess it up.
Pass Defense vs. Wisconsin
Allen Evridge tore it up against Marshall, completing 17 of 26 for a whopping 308 yards—11.8 YPA(!). Against Akron he was mostly a spectator (ten attempts) and against Fresno State he was thoroughly meh: 12 of 24 for 143 yards.
Of course, a hefty chunk of whatever struggles Evridge is having are due to the absence of all-universe tight end Travis Beckum. Beckum should be ready to terrorize Michigan linebackers on Saturday. In his absence Wisconsin's leading receiver is the other tight end (Garrett Graham), and their second-leading receiver is the other other tight end (Lance Kendricks), which kind of wraps up Wisconsin's offensive philosophy in a neat little bow.
The outside wideouts are Kyle Jefferson, a slow-ish guy but a rangy leaper dangerous on downfield jump balls, and little speedster David Gilreath. They have a total of eleven catches between them so far. No offense to either of those guys, but I don't think either is much of a worry.
Michigan's pass defense has been pretty good outside of the pair of HOLY GOD WHAT ARE YOU DOING errors the safeties turn in every game. Against Miami, Michigan got away with it. Against Utah and Notre Dame, not so much. Morgan Trent isn't great but he's solid. Donovan Warren is verging on avoid-at-all-costs territory, IMO.
The pass rush got shut out against Notre Dame largely because of some crazy max-protect sets and a big lead that allowed Notre Dame to forgo risk for the rest of the game; before that Michigan's defensive line had been murdering guys. They'll probably get back to that against Wisconsin's relatively lumbering line.
The big concern here is play action that fools the linebackers or safeties (or the linebackers and safeties) and gets tight ends wide open over the middle or one of the outside guys open deep. This should be a major advantage for Michigan if Wisconsin ends up in a long-yardage situation.
Key Matchup: Ezeh and Thompson and Mouton versus the tight end and the other tight end and the other other tight end, especially on play action. Also Brown. I expect a lot of robber zones from Michigan in an attempt to close down the inevitable gaps that will open up between the linebackers, who I guarantee will get sucked up on play action, and the safeties. This is tight end playground.
Special Teams
Wisconsin's kicker is pretty good, 4/5 on the year with his miss coming from beyond 50 yards.
Meanwhile, KC Lopata has been pretty good so far and Zoltan the Inconceivable has been excellent. Michigan's punting has been a huge net positive. Returns have been complete disaster; expect a rotation of punt and kick returners until they find someone who can run forward with the ball.
Key Matchup: Michigan returners versus HOLY GOD JUST CATCH THE BALL.
Cheap Thrills
Worry if...
- Chapman slashes up into McGuffie right from the start.
- We don't see some improvement from the linebackers when they take on Wisconsin's fullbacks.
- Evil Threet returns.
Cackle with knowing glee if...
- Michigan busts out aggression-killing misdirection early and often.
- Success with Odoms forces Wisconsin to go to a nickel.
- Michigan feels it can play really aggressive with the safeties and gets away with it.
Fear/Paranoia Level: 8 out of 10. (Baseline 5; +1 for We Are Unprepared To Stop The Beef Machine, +1 for This Is Probably A Much Better Team Than We've Faced So Far, –1 for But We've Got A Quarterback!, +1 for But What Are The Chances He Doesn't Screw Up?, +1 for I Hate These Matchups ).
Desperate need to win level: 7 out of 10. (Baseline 5; +1 for The California Raisin Bowl Is Slipping Away, +1 for 1-3 Would Not Be Particularly Fun, –1 for But 2-2 Wouldn't Be That Much Funner, +1 for If We Win We Can Woo Rose Bowl Hope For Like A Week)
Loss will cause me to... cancel those hotel reservations in downtown Detroit.
Win will cause me to... woooooo Rose Bowl baby!
The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict:
I don't think this is a good matchup for Michigan after watching Johnny Thompson get smoked by ND's fullback time and again. Wisconsin will have some success on the ground, suck up Michigan defenders, and then hit a long ball or three to Beckum or one of the outside guys; the rest of their yards they'll grind out on the ground. They'll probably get to the mid-to-high twenties.
Michigan, meanwhile, will probably get a reality check after the offense looked shockingly effective against Notre Dame. This is the kind of team that can make Michigan's patchwork offensive line look patchwork, and while I expect the offense won't revert to the ugly ways of the first couple games neither will it move up and down the field as smoothly as it did versus ND. A big play or two, one or two effective drives, and
This game isn't completely out of the question for Michigan as long as what we saw two weeks ago wasn't a mirage, but I think they have get one more big break than Wisconsin to win.
Finally, three opportunities for me to look stupid Sunday:
- Threet throws at least one ugly interception.
- The defensive line returns to its rampant ways in the pass rush.
- Wisconsin, 24-17.
Scouting Report: Wisconsin
Bumped from the diaries for extreme usefulness. -ed
I've watched the first three quarters of the Wisco Fresno game, and the first half of the Marshall game. Here are my thoughts.Wisconsin's Defense:
- They base out of a 4-3. As long as a tight end is in the game, they will stay in this front. Against Fresno, they brought a safety down and played cover 1 behind it. I think they were in cover 1. Its hard to read coverages watching TV footage. They did not blitz fresno very often, only on 2nd and long or 3rd and long. They would usually put #2 over the tight end if the tight end was in the slot. Against Marshall, they kept both safeties back and played out of a 2 shell. They appeared to be running a soft two, where the corners get depth with the #1 receiver until their flat is threatened. I think they were also running this when Fresno would go 5 wide.
- On third and long they will run a 3 man front and blitz. Only once during the 5 quarters I watched did they not blitz out of this front. They like to bring #11 on the outside. If they other linebackers blitz out of this front, they generally go through B gap. They blitzed Marshall more than Fresno. Marshall was more of a passing offense so this makes sense.
- #91 and #92 are their best players on defense. They are extremely quick off the ball and were very good at disrupting Fresno's zone running play. 91 is DT and just blew by people several times. He was also offsides two or three times, so I think we will get some easy 5 yard gains here and there. But Molk has got to be quick end get off the ball with power this week. This guy cannot spend the afternoon in Michigan's backfield or we will not be able to run the ball. #92 is the same way. They get up field in a hurry, and one way to negate this are screen passes. Both Marshall and Fresno got a couple big gains on well executed screens. I don't know if Michigan has run it very much this year, but running the inside trap should put #91 on his back and hopefully result in some good runs.
- I think they will play us more like they played Fresno, so Carson Butler on #2 should be a huge mismatch. He is not that good in man to man coverage. Fresno's tight end is not the athlete Carson Butler is, but consistently got open against that guy. If Butler is going to break out in a game this year, it has got to be against #2 in man to man coverage.
- Their corners seem to be ok in man coverage, but not great. Again, its hard to tell on TV film. I think we will see a lot of man coverage, because we have not consistently beat man coverage. If we see this, we need to make them pay for it. We have to throw the fade accurately and run better routes. They are physical corners, and Michigan's receivers must be physical as well. I don't think our receivers have been good enough in this area. They have been redirected on some of their vertical routes, and they have to be better. If we start hitting on the fades and comebacks, our other routes will open. The safeties are also ok players. #12 gets to the ball quickly. When they bring a safety down, I think it was #21 who they brought most of the time. They also like to blitz him in their three man front when he is playing man over #2.
- Bubble screens could be difficult to run this week. They mostly play with a man over every receiver, so by alignment we will be at a disadvantage for this play. However, if we are successful running the zone/counter/trap, they may have to bring the man over #2 or #3 to the inside, opening up the bubble screens. The three step passing game should be there this week too, especially if they are in man. The three step slant is one of the hardest throws to defend man to man, especially if the corners think the #1 receiver is a vertical threat.
- The linebackers are good players. They are not incredibly athletic, but they play disciplined and are good tacklers. However, if Michigan can take care of #91 and #92 and get to the second level, we can run on these guys. They are susceptible to misdirection. They bit on a reverse in the Fresno game, and usually bit pretty hard on the bootlegs.
Wisconsin's Offense:
- There isn't as much to say here. This is an I-formation offense that is looking to drive you off the ball. They like to keep two tight ends in the game most of the time. With the athletic tight ends they have, they can run or throw out of these formations. Beckum especially is a threat lining up in the slot or outside. They are also decent blockers, but we have to get by these guys when they are blocking on run plays.
- Their favorite formation is a tight end other either side with twins to the wide side of the field. They can run the belly to either side or throw out of this formation. They also like to put both tight ends on the same side with a fullback in the backfield. They will pull the center and play side tackle out between the tight ends and run the fullback through the hole as a lead blocker. They run this a lot and have success with it. They also motion the wing tight end to the other side. They run to the motion and run the counter away from it. Sometimes, they pull the motioned tight end back to the play side and run a trap. Any pulling lineman will take you to the play side. When lineman work off double teams and get to the second level, they go after the outside linebackers, and leave the Mike for the lead blocking full back. When they pull, it looks like they are looking for the first man to show.
- Their passing game is based around their tight ends. They will run them on deep outs, down the seam, and down the sideline. They also like to run crossing routes with these guys. They look for these guys first. Their wideouts do not seem like much of a threat. #7 is a big tall guy but can get pushed around. #3 and #85 are smaller quicker guys, but did not get much separation against Fresno db's. They will run some bubble screens out of twins and trips if the defense is way off the line of scrimmage. Everidge is a typical Wisconsin qb. His arm strength and accuracy or just ok, and he can make a few plays with his legs. We need to hit him early and often. I think this is possible. Marshall got some pressure on him early, and Fresno was able to get some as well. We need a big day from Jamison and Graham on passing downs, and I think we will blitz a lot on these downs as well.
- As a defense, we have to stop the run game. This is not going to be easy to do all day. However, I think we can do it. Our DT, have to stand up the double teams, and not allow the Oline to release to the lb's. When our lb's take on a lineman or a lead blocker, they cannot let them get into their bodies. They either have to take them head on, extend their arms, and shed the block, or take them on with their correct shoulder and make the play with their free shoulder. Even if this is just forcing the play back to the middle, it has to be done. Our lb's have got to deliver hits this week. Putting their heads down and lunging will result in big gains for P.J. Hill. He will run through arm tackles, and if we try to hit him high, he will get 5 yards after contact. He is a big guy, but he runs pretty upright. We have to hit him low, wrap up, and drive him back. I think we have the athletes at lb to make these plays, but until now they have been lunging. Hopefully, they have been working on this for two weeks and execute better on Saturday.
- We have to hit the tight ends as they come off the line of scrimmage. We do not have a linebacker that matches up well with Beckum. Maybe Mouton can stay with him, but if he catches a ball, does Mouton bring him down immediately? The other TE, Graham, is not as physical as Beckum. We can knock this guy down right off the line of scrimmage and take him out of the game completely. We need to hit Beckum too on every single play. When these tight ends try to release off the line, we need to put them on their backs. You can hit a guy in college until the ball is in the air, and we have to beat these guys up. Warren and Trent should have no problem locking up their wideouts.
- I expect to see Michigan run some cover 4 in this game where the safeties are buzzing their feet at the snap and reading the play. The corners are man outside, and if the safeties read run they come up in run support. If they read pass, they have deep half. From what gsimmons has posted about the defense, this coverage is now in Michigan's arsenal. Whatever coverages they run, I expect to see safeties coming down in run support.
- One last thing, they run a play action where they fake a zone stretch play and bootleg, dragging the tight end from the original play side. They hit it for big chunks of yards against Fresno. However, they ran the play action 3 or 4 times in the games I watched, but only handed off once. If you see the zone stretch, it is most likely a play action. Again, we have to hit both tight ends on this play and cannot let them release cleanly.
Well that's what I have for this week. I definitely think we can move the ball against their D, but we have to execute the fade route better. We also have to be able to run the bread n' butter zone read play with 3 or 4 wide receiver sets. Defensively, our lb's have to improve significantly at taking on lead blocks and delivering a hit on tackles. We need to hit Everidge early and often, and we have to keep the TE's from getting a clean release off the LOS. I really believe this is a winnable game. We definitely have the weapons on offense to hurt them in secondary. Our Oline needs to execute, and we absolutely cannot turn the ball over.
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Books & Novels
The books & novels shown here were created by teens. Click any thumbnail to view the book or novel.
Farewell Pluto
She understood now,that the greatest happiness is doing something for someone, knowing that they will never be able to repay you. Even, when it's time to say goodbye. (more »)
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subset: commoncrawl


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The Importance of Losing
On Saturday I did what any sane, obsessed ultrarunner might do on a fine sunny morning by running 32 miles on a 400 meter track. That's 128 laps for you mathematicians. And a lot of left turns.
The infield of this particular track at Dunbar Park in Chicago hosts several tee-ball and tiny-tot little league games, so while I ran myself in delirious circles, I was entertained by our national pastime at its tiniest level. Sort of.
I understand tee-ball and coach-pitch teams are for the young ones. I would guess they were between 5-7 years old. But some of what I saw on those fields turned my stomach.
During one game I counted 20 defenders in the field. In another, a kid grounded out but was still allowed to occupy first base. I even heard "let's have a do-over" from one of the "coaches".
I know we live in a semi-psychotic, hopey-changey surreality, where everyone is a "winner" and negativity is shunned like logic at an evangelical mega-church. But I think people are missing the point here: there is very valuable lesson in failure.
Life sucks sometimes. It's hard. It's cruel. It's relentless. But it's also rewarding and serendipitous and full of potential. If we rely on sheltered observations to teach our youth that failure and shortcomings are not a part of the process, then we are going to end up with a planet full of passive, stale, robots incapable of innovation and creativity.
Mistakes are a part of the success equation. Let's not rob our future of that valuable lesson.
Also, don't hate me 'cuz I'm right.


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Hammel 'happy' how knee healing
Baltimore Orioles starting pitcher Jason Hammel stretches during a baseball spring training workout Wednesday, Feb. 13, 2013, in Sarasota, Fla. (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)
SARASOTA — Things have turned around in Baltimore for Jason Hammel.
A year ago, Hammel was barely known. Most fans didn't know who he was. The Baltimore Orioles had traded their most established pitcher, Jeremy Guthrie, in February to the Colorado Rockies for Hammel and Matt Lindstrom.


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By Tiernan Ray
Shares of Qualcomm (QCOM) are up 36 cents, or half a percent, at $65.52, after Canaccord Genuity's Mike Walkley this morning reiterated a Buy rating on the shares, and raised his price target to $85 from $83, after raising his estimates for the company's market share in chipset sales.
Walkley thinks Qualcomm will take a greater proportion of the "baseband" wireless modem chips shipped in smartphones as new models role out, such as Samsung Electronics's (005930KS) Galaxy S4, and HTC's (2498TW) "One" handset:
Despite competitors sampling integrated LTE solutions during C2013, we believe Qualcomm's 3rd-generation LTE solutions will enable Qualcomm to maintain its competitive advantages versus competitors' 1st generation solutions. In fact, we have increased our QCT market share assumptions for F2013 and F2014 due to Qualcomm's leadership breadth across the components of an integrated mobile solution including ARM CPUs, mobile GPUs, 3G/4G modems, DPSs, and RF. We believe Qualcomm's 3rd- generation LTE solutions should enable Qualcomm to maintain significant LTE advantages versus competing companies' 1st-generation solutions in areas such as signal co-existence optimization, global band and roaming support, 2G/3G/4G handoff maturity, and TD- SCDMA/TDD-LTE inclusion. Given the shortening smartphone product cycles and challenges of LTE given all the disparate bands around the globe, we believe OEMs will continue to rely on Qualcomm to help quickly launch new LTE smartphones in new markets. Following the adoption of LTE in Apple's (AAPL) iPhone 5 for all the global SKUs, other OEMs have increased LTE smartphone SKUs within their high- and mid-tier portfolios. We believe the Samsung Galaxy S4 demonstrates this changing mix to LTE. We estimate roughly 1/3rd of Galaxy S III smartphones supported LTE. For the Galaxy S4, we expect 2/3rds or more of the global SKUs for this leading smartphone will support LTE. Also, we believe Qualcomm has much stronger applications processor share in the Galaxy S4 versus the SIII, and this should have a positive impact to QCT or MSM ASP trends. Finally, we estimate roughly 65M Galaxy SIII's have shipped since this smartphone launched roughly a year ago, and we believe nearly 100M S4's will ship over a similar one-year time period. With Qualcomm gaining content share in the highest volume LTE smartphone for 2013 (or 2nd-highest depending on iPhone 5 and 5S volumes that also use Qualcomm solutions), we have increased our QCT estimates for F2013 from 697M to 719M MSMs.
Walkley's estimate for profit goes to $4.54 per share from $4.44 for the fiscal year ending this September, on revenue of $24.4 billion, above the $24.06 billion and $4.51 the Street is modeling. For next year, he raised his estimate to $5 per share in profit, up from $4.86 per share, on $27.44 billion in revenue. That's above the consensus $25.7 billion and $4.89 per share.


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I've never bought a single ticket to a sporting event before, I've always gone with a friend or family member. But when single game tickets for the Canucks went on sale this year, I knew there was one game I had to try and see. That game was of course the one coming up this Wednesday, December 17th against the Edmonton Oilers, the game the Vancouver Canucks and their fans officially retire the jersey of Trevor Linden. I managed to get a single ticket.
Trevor Linden came along at the peak of my love for the Canucks. I was 19 years old on June 11, 1988 when the Canucks selected Trevor 2nd overall in the entry draft. I lived and breathed Canuck hockey, along with a bunch of friends. We watched every game, analyzed the drafts, discussed trades and how coaches should be fired. It was an interest that culminated with the very first edition of Canucks Corner in 1996.
I feel fortunate to have witnessed the whole career of Trevor Linden. He was basically my age, when he broke into the league, and he instantly became a fan favorite with his effort and maturity that were evident right from the start.
I could list my favorite Linden memories, but they would probably be the same of many of you. So I'll share the moment that I think defined Trevor Linden as a player in my mind, and sent chills up my spine when it came from the vocal chords of Hall of Fame broadcaster Jim Robson. It was the final minute of game 6, in the 1994 Stanley Cup final versus the New York Rangers. The Canucks had the game wrapped up when Mark Messier gave Linden a cheap shot on the way back to the benches. There was no penalty on the play, but the crowd saw it, Robson saw it, and he had this call that still raises the hair on the back of my neck today:
Linden was not only respected by fans, but by his peers as well, as evidenced when he was given a classy tribute by the visiting Calgary Flames in his final game. Flames captain Jerome Iginla made sure that every player in a Flames jersey went and wished Trevor the best.
Almost every Canucks fan out there has a favorite Linden memory. His continued presence and contributions in our community will create more memories for others in the future. He will always represent this team, but he will also continue to be an icon in our city. Perhaps he will eventually become involved with the team again, there are many who think he would make a great coach.
Whatever the future holds for Trevor Linden, I am thankful I saw his career from beginning to end and for the memories and excitement he provided me. Enjoy your night on Wednesday Trevor, it's our turn to say thanks to you.
Please feel free to comment on this article and leave your defining Trevor Linden moment!


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Recent IFPRI research has articulated the distinctions between the legal obligations of WTO members and the underlying economic intention of reducing trade-distorting support; it has traced the extent to which WTO notifications have tracked and provided transparency about countries' policies and has assessed the extent to which a Doha agreement would constrain domestic support among key countries given projected policies to the mid 2010s.
In 2001, the World Trade Organization launched an ambitious program of multilateral liberalization known as the Doha Development Agenda. Since the beginning, these negotiations were complicated because of the large number of overlapping trade regimes currently in place, as well as the participation of so many countries with highly varied and conflicting interests. After eight years of talks, a successful conclusion to the negotiations is in doubt. Nevertheless, an opportunity to improve global trade still exists.
The book WTO Disciplines on Agricultural Support (Cambridge University Press), released in 2011, co-edited by David Orden, as well as the accompanying issue brief, has been endorsed by leading trade analysts and practitioners, including the former EU Commissioner of Agriculture, former director of the OECD agriculture and trade secretariat, and two former chairs of the WTO Committee on Agriculture. During the last public forum of the WTO in September 2011, IFPRI researchers hosted a session related to food security and trade and linked their research to this important debate, as well as the debate on export restrictions.
The IFPRI issue brief, Eight Years of Doha Trade Talks: Where Do We Stand?, provides an overview of the evolution of the proposals that key players have brought to the table over the years. This brief summarizes their potential impact on tariffs, trade and country's real income. The research suggests that the last major proposal put forward in December 2008 could be the basis of an agreement. If a compromise is reached that comes close to this package, the Doha round would be beneficial for the world economy and for development.
In theory, this proposal would offer significant tariff reductions, but it also includes more exceptions, limiting the scope of liberalization for many products. Overall, the proposal would result in a 27 percent reduction of existing applied tariffs worldwide. By comparison, in 2005, the U.S. government suggested a 49 percent reduction in global protection, and the G-20 and EU proposed a cut of about 36 percent in applied average tariffs. It is noteworthy that this level of tariff reduction is quite similar to those accomplished by previous trade rounds (the Uruguay Round, the Tokyo Round, and the Kennedy Round) but it will cover more products and a larger number of countries.
IFPRI's analysis shows that the expected gains from the December 2008 proposal – while limited – are positive. Real income would improve globally by about US$70 billion annually (this evaluation relies on conservative assumptions that do not take into account dynamic, and potentially important, benefits from trade liberalization). Overall, global exports would increase by 2 percent. Middle-income developing countries like Brazil, India and China would enjoy substantial gains.
Unfortunately, however, the impact would be modest, if not negative, for some least-developed countries (LDCs). For example, the protection faced by the agricultural exports of LDCs would decline by 2.3 percent, compared to 4.6 percent for high-income countries. The reasons are well-known: LDCs would be hurt by eroded preferences, rising agricultural prices (if they are net-food importing countries) and the absence of trade reform in their own economies.
The issue brief recommends that the OECD countries, along with Brazil, India, and China, provide 100 percent Duty-Free Quota-Free access to LDCs to boost their gains from a final trade agreement. This access should not include any product exemptions. Even a 97 percent coverage of Duty-Free Quota-Free access would undermine the positive impact of this approach due to the export concentration of LDCs (see IFPRI note The Development Promise: Can the Doha Development Agenda Deliver for Least-Developed Countries? for an analysis of this issue). The wealthy nations should also provide an ambitious aid for trade package aimed at reducing trade costs in the poorest countries, including improving market infrastructure.
One strongly positive potential outcome from a Doha agreement is that it would reinforce binding commitments and reduce existing bound duties, as explored in the IFPRI brief, The Potential Cost of a Failed Doha Round. If Doha is not concluded successfully, current protection would double when countries resort to bound levels, whereas protection would increase by only 41 percent if the Doha Development Agenda were to be implemented. This difference is worth up to US$809 billion in global trade volume and US$184 billion in real global income in 2025. Strikingly, these conclusions are especially true for poor countries. If one considers that the real value of the Doha Development Agenda is measured by the 'preventive' role that it plays, $128 billion, or about two-thirds of the gains in global income, would accrue to developing countries.
Overall, IFPRI's analysis suggests that the efforts made by the WTO negotiators are worthwhile and positive for the world economy. If the needs of the world's poorest and most vulnerable economies are addressed specifically, concluding the Doha round quickly will allow them grasp the gains of improved global trade.


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Last Team Racing Regatta Until Nationals Qualifier This Weekend at MIT
NEW HAVEN, Conn. – After a strong third-place showing at last weekend's Southern New England Team Race Intersectional, the Bulldogs are shipping up to Boston to compete in the 29th Marchiando and 50th Friis Trophies at MIT and Tufts. Yale is also travelling to Roger Williams for Team Racing A Level and the U.S. Coast Guard Academy for the New London Invitational.
The Friis-Marchiando Trophies will bring the top team racers in the country together on two of the nation's trickiest venues, the Charles River and Mystic Lake. Both bodies of water can serve up radical windshifts that are baffling to the point of maddening. Yale will report to Tufts on Saturday morning. Last year, the Bulldogs proved themselves up to the challenge with an impressive third-place finish. Sailing for the Bulldogs will be seniors Thomas Barrows, Sarah Lihan and Marla Menninger, juniors Blair Belling and Liz Brim, sophomore Joseph Morris and freshman Raphael Fernandez. Tufts is unique in the sailing community for its Lark dinghy. The craft is a hybrid of the 420 and the FJ, blending the 420's speed with the FJ's maneuverability. This year Tufts has thrown a new wrinkle into the mix for teams: larger sails. Larks were already known as overpowered boats, and the increase in sail area has made the boat nothing short of a monster in the collegiate sailing world. Yale's women had the opportunity to test out the new sails two weeks ago at the Duplin team race, and found the additional power to be exciting, though at times overwhelming. Lihan and Brim were members of the Duplin team, and may be able to help the team transition to the new sail cut.
A second pack of sailors will travel to Roger Williams on Sunday for team racing. Yale will face off against sailors from Boston College, Dartmouth, Roger Williams, Tufts and the University of Rhode Island. Racing for the Bulldogs will be seniors Rebecca Jackson and John Vrolyk, junior Andrew Kurzrok, sophomore Isabel Elliman and freshmen Senem Cilingiroglu and Grace Zimmerly. Like for the Friis gang, the Roger Williams team race represents the final team-racing event of the spring season.
Lastly, sailors will race in the New London Invitational, Southern Series Four at Coast Guard. The regatta will be sailed in both 420s and FJs and promises to test the sailors' aptitudes for changing boats and their ability to handle extremely dynamic sailing conditions.
Teams should expect gusty conditions with a low forecast to pass over New England this weekend. However, none of the Bulldogs' venues are on open ocean, so local effects may predominate despite strong macro-scale systems.
Racing at Tufts and Coast Guard begins Saturday at 9:30 a.m.
Report filed by Andrew Kurzrok '11, Yale Sports Publicity


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WASHINGTON – Susan Rice, who came under heavy criticism for her defense of the Obama administration after armed militants killed four Americans in Benghazi, Libya, withdrew her name from consideration for secretary of State on Thursday as the president began to narrow his choices for key Cabinet positions.
"If nominated, I am now convinced that the confirmation process would be lengthy, disruptive and costly – to you and to our most pressing national and international priorities," Rice wrote in a one-page letter to President Obama. "That tradeoff is simply not worth it to our country."
In a statement, Obama praised Rice, who is the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, as a key member of his Cabinet and "an advisor and friend."
PHOTOS: Notable moments of the 2012 presidential election
"While I deeply regret the unfair and misleading attacks on Susan Rice in recent weeks, her decision demonstrates the strength of her character, and an admirable commitment to rise above the politics of the moment to put our national interests first," Obama said.


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Click here to view game notes (PDF)
COOKEVILLE, Tenn. – The Tennessee Tech soccer squad will conclude their first week of the semester with a split venue weekend, first taking on the Vanderbilt Commodores on Friday night in Nashville, and then returning to Cookeville for a home match against UNC-Asheville on Sunday.
Tech matched up against Vandy last in 2008, when current senior Ashley Smith recorded TTU's only goal of the 4-1 loss to VU in Cookeville. Smith's shot on net also represents the only goal netted by the Golden Eagles against Vandy since their first meeting in 2003.
Smith and her teammates will be looking to snap the 3-0 losing streak this Friday evening when they face off against the Commodores on Vandy's home field.
"Vanderbilt is an SEC powerhouse, and will undoubtedly serve to prepare us for a challenging Ohio Valley Conference," said first-year coach Daniel Brizard of Friday's nightcap. "The atmosphere of a night game in Nashville will definitely get us pumped for Friday's game."
Fans who will be unable to attend Friday's match can follow the livestats here.
Be sure to check out the weekly game notes for women's soccer at Tech, which provide information pertaining to the previous week's contests as well as previews of upcoming matches and running notes about the team. Comprehensive notes by week are accessible as a sidebar link on the soccer home page, while this week's game notes are also available by clicking here.


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6:30 PM -- 4-H meeting on Thursday (October 24) at Pritchett Community Center followed by Vet Science class instruction by Dr Cherie Nazzal.
Cookies and drinks will be served.
Noon until ??? -- Low Cost Vaccination Clinic at PetCo in Longview on Saturday (October 26). This is the last vaccination clinic for the year!
Due to Harvest Festival and other events, we will induct our new Officers in January.
Hope to see you Thursday and Saturday!


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– Christian appeared before last night's FCW show in Orlando, Florida but did not appear during the show as some WWE talents do when they're at developmental. The main event last night was a star-studded bout with FCW Champion Seth Rollins defeating Antonio Cesaro, Dean Ambrose and Leo Kruger in a four-way.
– The Orlando Sentinel reports that WWE will tape NXT at Full Sail University seven more times over the next 6 months. They note that the sixth season of NXT is being filmed, which puts an end to the NXT: Redemption program. NXT will continue to air internationally but broadcast plans for the US are not confirmed yet.
WWE camera crews worked with 30 Full Sail students to film the tapings earlier this week. Full Sail students seeking entertainment related degrees will continue to work side by side with the WWE crews at the tapings.
As of now, the NXT tapings at Full Sail University are open to staff, students and faculty but they may be open to the public in the future.
Check out these pictures of the new NXT Arena at Full Sail University:
[nggallery id=4]


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Which sessions are waiting for PCM lock conversion to complete?
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GV$DLM_CONVERT_LOCAL/REMOTE displays the elapsed time for the local lock conversion operation and has finer grain details on lock activity. In order to use these views, you need to turn on the event 29700 to gather these statistics. Metalink note: 72316.1 will help you with this.
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UPPER DUBLIN — One could just evaluate the Xs and Os of two vastly different volleyball programs and offer a thorough analysis of a game. One would expect the North Penn Knights, who are historically tops in their division, would defeat a team like Upper Dublin, which has never been known as a powerhouse. Times change, however, and pave the way for a new era of competitive play.
Upper Dublin fell at home Monday to North Penn, 3 games to 1, but showed signs of new life and new discipline.
"I'm working with a program that hasn't been known for really good volleyball," said first year UD coach Brendan Ledwith. "Basically, we're just trying to get our guys to play better volleyball, be more competitive with teams in the upper tier of the conference and the district."
North Penn had the upper hand midway through the match, winning the first two games 25-20 and 25-15. In the third game, however, UD took a 24-18 lead, and despite a late NP rally that pushed the game to win-by-twos, UD took the game 28-26.
"Upper Dublin played some very good defense," said NP coach Tim Moyer. "We couldn't put a ball away against them."
The Knights were stacked in size next to the relatively short Cardinal squad, a fact emphasized in the stats: The Cardinals had 58 digs and only 4 blocks, whereas the Knights had 26 quality passes, 87 digs, 14 blocks and 52 kills.
"We have some pretty strong serving with our jump serve and we have three or four guys that can consistently put the ball away," Moyer said.
NP outside hitter Kyle Suero, a sophomore. started off the fourth game serving dominantly. UD couldn't handle the jump serve and could return only rollers and free balls, which NP returned with fierce strikes. NP faked a middle set, and with the weak-side blocker isolated, co-captain and outside hitter Andy Willits ripped a kill down the line. UD tried some trickery on the next side-out and missed a dump by the setter out of bounds. The next point was a service winner by Suero.
Suero, who had 15 kills, 14 digs and 1 block, but he wasn't impressed by his team's effort, however. After losing to Christopher Dock—a top Suburban One foe—by two points in the fifth game, the team was feeling a little too confident, in his opinion.
"We let a lot of balls drop and there wasn't a lot of effort on a lot of people's parts," he said. "I guess not really caring to say the least."
Coach Moyer had a different outlook on the adversary.
"They definitely took it to us tonight, they showed up to play on their home court as you would hope that they would and made a good match of it," he said.
Ledwith said UD has perpetuated poor coaching by hiring players from within the program who have been coached poorly in the past, but he has seen much improvement in the players this year, and he finds that seniors in particular are buying into the new direction and influencing the younger players.
"With boys, the main thing you have to prove is that your way is better than what they know," Ledwith said. "Between conference and non-conference, we have six wins, which is more than Upper Dublin's had in recent history, and (the players) see an improvement in themselves."
The biggest issue Ledwith sees is the highs and lows in his team's energy, but with the third game in particular, he knows his players are pushing in the right direction.
"The biggest change is that they know they can win," Ledwith said. "They know it's not over at any point and they just continue to play."


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Strength Training
Strength training is a supplement to a runner's roadwork because it strengthens muscles and joints, which can improve race times and decrease injury risk.
If you want to perform at your full potential, you need to take a comprehensive approach to your running. That means targeting areas of fitness you may not normally pay attention to, like flexibility, balance, mobility, and strength. Studies have shown that strength training can improve body composition by helping you maintain or increase your lean body mass and can decrease your percentage of body fat, helping you look leaner and burn additional calories.
Not sure where you stand? Take our tests to find out how fit you are.
Incorporate strength training into your running regimen
- Head to the gym, but be sure to avoid common weight-lifting mistakes.
- Take a class if you're unsure about how to strength train on your own.
- Adopt a flexibility- and strength-building routine by practicing Pilates, yoga, or the newly popular Gyrotonics.
- Go outdoors for a circuit training loop to strength train.
- Integrate cross-training into your workout routine to build strength and flexibility in muscles that running doesn't utilize and prevent injury. Try cycling or swimming to improve strength and flexibility.
- Say goodbye to long runs and introduce a high-intensity, low-volume training plan to your routine.
- Improve your balance and stability to strengthen weak muscles and reform your running.
Gain total body strength
Multiple studies show that regular strength training can improve running economy-how efficiently the body uses oxygen-by as much as eight percent, translating into greater speed and more muscle endurance. And it makes sense for runners to focus on their most important body part—their legs.
Try these workouts to strengthen your lower body:
But strong legs require a solid foundation. When you run, your abdominal and back muscles fire to stabilize your spine. Strengthening your core will help your legs also grow stronger.
Try these workouts for a stronger core:
The best distance athletes don't just have impressive quads and glutes. They have muscular arms and shoulders that help them maintain speed throughout their races. Build upper body strength to run better.
For a workout plan that incorporates all three muscle groups, try our Get-Strong Plan for a total body strengthening regiment.
Just don't forget the importance of rest and recovery. If you occasionally take a break from training while still maintaining fitness, you will come back a stronger runner.


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Congrats! What a great year so far! Can't wait for the tourney! Go Blue!
Big Ten Banner Muppets
John Beilein for President! What a great year! Basketball!
Forget that guy. I want a shot of the girl who was shaking and about to start crying!
A Big Ten championship in basketball! It's about damn time!!!!
When I saw the blonde with the leprechun hat and the totally pissed off look during the extended "time out," I couldn't help but think one thing:
"There's 8 guys who aren't having sex tonight."
Truer words were never spoken.
"Oh no, we may be CO-Big Ten Champs!"
Purdue kept us from being outright Champs...and I don't care! 26 year draught is over!!
It's nothing new. I think all but one of Izzo's big ten championships have all been shared titles.
I just Wikipedia'd it, and Izzo has 3 Outright Titles; 1999, 2000 (TSIO vacated their share due to NCAA sanctions) and 2009
even with those two schools. Quite the unholy trinity of B1G champs.
Rooting for Ohio was worth it!!!!!!!!!!!
Yes indeed.
Now it's shower time.
This is so great!
I came to see the Muppets and glad Brian made haste and put 'em up!
Congrats to a very deserving team and especially the 2 seniors.
Corey Pearson is also a senior and Ben Cronin is also a part of the team though isn't technically a part of the roster.
/ minor nitpicking
Continue with the celebration.
"Corey Pearson" is actually named Corey Person.
/ minor nitpicking
Continue with celebration.
It took rooting for Ohio and sitting through the longest 1.0 sec but it was worth it! B1G champs!! Tremendous job by Beilein, Zack, Stu and co!
I love tiling gifs even more for some reason
I wish I could rate this higher
This is the best way I've ever seen to have a seziure. The striped overals in the background turn it into some sort of messed up MC Escher thing...
This gif is perfect now. I love the tiling effect too.
The team has had a great year and deserves the reward.
So effing great, BTW
U-M has an awesome athletic program/department and it seems like it's only gonna get better at the 2 most important sports!
You had a nice run, but we're back, and it's on, and you return to bitter #2 position in all sports. Thanks!
You had a nice run, but we're back, and it's on, and you return to bitter #2 position in all sports. Thanks!
EDIT: I still stand by my original statement. My first double post, whooo!
Octopost is coming. Just get an iPhone.
Sparty NOoooooo!
Big Thanks to Ohio. "That's all I've got to say about that".
Nice to be back on top (Michigan that is). Great season thus far; much more to be accomplished though! Damn it feels good to be a Michigan Basketball fan (Gangsta!).
Speaking of Sparty No! moves, how dumb was it to constantly flash that "13 B1G Championships" banner on the side of the scorer's table?" Way to offer extra incentive to the visitors.
I'm not going to lie, that one slipped right by me. After watching a complete basketball game, that number flashing never crossed my mind as counting This Year's Title! No kidding, not exactly a "smart" nor classy move by them!
Much love for Coach Beilein and his staff. Wooooooooooo!!! Go Blue!
Wasn't so bad rooting for Ohio. They are a hard team to hate, they don't have that annoying player that runs his mouth.
Thanks Lil bro, good lookin out.
One of my favorite things about today, was that Draymond Green missed both the GW-ing shots
Craft and Sullinger are easy to dislike
Eh after seeing all the dribble they put on about Sullinger and Burke all year I actually don't mind him. He seems like a pretty good kid, like his parents also since they mention once he leave Ohio they will be wearing the Maize and Blue. Craft yeah I am with you there don't like that guy for some reason. Oddly enough cheering for Ohio to beat STAEE was rather easy. I realized how much I hate MSU basketball, football on the other hand. In the words of Ron Burgady "go fuck yourself Ohio".
Win the Tourney in Indy!
Big Ten++ Champs!!!
Brian, we must first define "modern" to fully examine its influence. So, what do you see "modern" and "post-modern" to mean?
Ihab Hasaan has tried to do this ad infinitum. I suppose Fredrik Jameson has too. It can't be done because the distinction is meaningless. Everything that is supposedly "postmodern" is right there in Moby-Dick. And speaking of moby dicks, Trey Burke's got one! Oh transitions!!!
That is all. Let's kick all of the asses next year. I don't like to share.
I am an awful MGoBlogger.
This has never happened...
What say we go to Charlie's?
This may be a septuple woo. Oops. Staee lost, apperently I got carried away. PLZ help a blogger out?


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BOSTON — As far as heavyweight tune-ups go, this one was Godzilla against the Geico gecco.
The Bruins, two days in advance of their Stanley Cup Final rematch with Vancouver, destroyed Calgary 9-0 behind two goals from Nathan Horton and Patrice Bergeron and a total of eight multi-point scorers at the TD Garden tonight.
Boston has now scored six or more goals 11 times this season and has won nine of its last 10.
Even without Brad Marchand (flu), the Bruins' offense couldn't be slowed. Tuukka Rask took care of the rest in net with 25 saves for his third shutout of the season. He has allowed just one goal in his last 276:08 of ice time.
The Canucks visit the Garden for 1 p.m. game Saturday.