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9-21-05 - With Hurricane Rita barreling through the Gulf of Mexico toward Texas, homeowners and property insurers are bracing for potentially billions of dollars in damages.
Texas homeowners already pay the highest premiums in the country, and a direct hit from a Category 4 storm could affect prices statewide as insurance companies write checks to cover their losses.
Jerry Johns, president of the industry trade group Southwestern Insurance Information Service, said a "worst-case" scenario of Rita slamming into Galveston and Houston could cause billions in losses.
"Rates are based on losses. Assuming they are astronomic, rates could be impacted," Johns said.
Most insurance companies don't write policies in coastal communities. Those are covered by the Texas Windstorm Insurance Association, an insurer of last resort created by the Legislature in 1971 after Hurricane Celia caused about $350 million in damage. That figure is estimated at up to $1.8 billion when adjusted for 2005 dollars, Johns said.
The windstorm association is the primary insurer for coastal property in 14 Gulf coast counties and a sliver of Harris County, with about $25 billion in policies.
But the storm is likely to continue causing damage inland, either with strong winds, heavy rains, flooding or spinoff tornadoes. Flooding from heavy rains in Tropical Storm Allison in 2001 caused about $1.2 billion in insured damage, according the Southwestern Insurance Information Service.
Texas Department of Insurance spokesman Jim Hurley said Rita's potential impact on rates will depend on the amount of damage, which state officials declined to estimate before the storm.
Insurance companies already have a "catastrophe load" built into their policies, which sets aside a percentage of the premium to pay for catastrophic events, Hurley said.
"It depends on what kind of damage, but if they have been reserving enough," there should be money to cover damages, Hurley said.
Hurley said state officials will be working with insurance companies to make sure they get representatives into affected areas quickly to work with homeowners who suffer damage.
"They need to be ready to step up and do what they're supposed to do," Hurley said.


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Fort Worth, Texas – Authorities with the Texas and Southwestern Cattle Raisers Association (TSCRA) and the Henderson County Sheriff's Office are seeking information regarding the theft of a white , three-ton, flat bed International truck and a black flat-bed trailer with a green fuel tank.
According to TSCRA Special Ranger Jimmy Dickson the offenders cut the locks and entered property on County Road 1400 near Malakoff in Henderson County.
Anyone with information regarding this theft should contact TSCRA's Operation Cow Thief hotline at 888-830-2333. A reward will be offered to those with information leading to the arrest and/or indictment of those involved.
TSCRA has 30 special rangers stationed strategically throughout Texas and Oklahoma who have in-depth knowledge of the cattle industry and are trained in all facets of law enforcement. All are commissioned as Special Rangers by the Texas Department of Public Safety and/or the Oklahoma State Bureau of Investigation.
TSCRA is a 137-year-old trade association and is the largest and oldest livestock organization based in Texas. TSCRA has more than 16,000 beef cattle operations, ranching families and businesses as members. These members represent approximately 50,000 individuals directly involved in ranching and beef production who manage 4 million head of cattle on 76 million acres of range and pasture land primarily in Texas and Oklahoma, but throughout the Southwest.

subset: commoncrawl


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Story highlights
- President Jacob Zuma says Mandela is responding well to treatment
- Zuma asks for prayers for the former president, who's been in the hospital since December 8
Former South African President Nelson Mandela will remain in a Pretoria hospital through Christmas, the government said on Monday.
In a statement on his website, President Jacob Zuma said that Mandela is responding well to treatment.
"We also humbly invite all freedom loving people around the world to pray for him. He is an ardent fighter and will recover from this episode with all our support,'' said Zuma, who visited Mandela on Saturday.
Mandela, 94, has received round-the-clock care since an acute respiratory infection in 2011. He was hospitalized for a lung infection on December 8; and on December 15, he had successful endoscopic surgery to have gallstones removed.
Mandela has not appeared in public since the 2010 World Cup hosted by South Africa.
The Nobel Peace Prize winner spent 27 years in prison for fighting the oppression of blacks in South Africa. He became the nation's first black president in 1994, four years after he was freed.
South Africa last month launched a new batch of banknotes with a picture of a smiling Mandela on the front.


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When teaching a seminar, and there's a point that rises out of the discussion that you think absolutely has to be made, wait. In five minutes someone in the class will say what, if you, the teacher, had said it, would have killed the discussion - but coming from a student, it will push the discussion forward, into richer territory than your own sterile interruption could ever have found. That was my own advice to myself, and every time I teach a seminar, I have to remind myself of it about every 15 minutes.Ah! The temptation to just say it (which I yield to all the time).
I found that because of my Google alert on "Bob Dylan." Here's what he said about Dylan:
The greatest album, ever?
Bob Dylan's "Highway 61 Revisited" (1965) No matter how many times you might have heard it, a different song will appear as primary, the star around which everything else revolves - it could be "It Takes a Lot to Laugh, It Takes a Train to Cry," one day, "Ballad of a Thin Man" the next, the title song for the next year, "Just Like Tom Thumb's Blues" a year later, each different song casting all the others into a different relief. Then "Desolation Row" might make you forget that there's anything else on the album at all. But if the album were simply "Like a Rolling Stone" and 30 or 40 minutes of silence, I still might pick it.


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Linked by David Adams on Wed 10th Aug 2011 17:07 UTC, submitted by glarepate
The beleaguered handset maker Nokia is setting itself up for what it hopes will be a lean and mean relaunch in the U.S. later this year: it has finally admitted that it will not launch its newest N9 device--the first and possibly only one based on the MeeGo platform--and that it plans to end sales of its Symbian-based devices as well as low-end Series 40 handsets, as it prepares for a generation of devices it is developing using Microsoft's Windows Phone 7 platform.
Thread beginning with comment 484477
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Makes sense to me
by gregthecanuck on Wed 10th Aug 2011 20:54 UTC
RE: Makes sense to me
by libray on Thu 11th Aug 2011 16:01 in reply to "Makes sense to me"
RE[2]: Makes sense to me
by gregthecanuck on Thu 11th Aug 2011 16:22 in reply to "RE: Makes sense to me"
Yes but compared to the insane funds spent on various OS projects inside Nokia the net unit cost for operating system may not be much more, perhaps even less.
In fact, based on the "sweetness" of the deal between MS and Nokia it could probably be argued the OS cost is guaranteed to be less.
Edited 2011-08-11 16:23 UTC


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Black beauty full Movie [01:24:25]
Jumps a bit in the movie but other then that it is fine.
iRacing- Beth Reed the movie [01:31]
Da beth reed movie! Demo at SB troubles
Tags: bethreedmovie, Beth (song), The Movie, Reed College, Racing, Race, James, Racing Club De Avellaneda, Frank, Nascar, Trailer, Speedway, Horse, Track, Crash, Dean, Michelle, Kart, Track And Field, Cup, Series, Motor, Sprint Cup Series, Divas, Horse Racing,
One in the same [00:40]
A collage of my bet friend Amber on Dakota and Promise. and Trish on Wizzard. synced with the poem from secretariat the movie the poem is directly from the bible in the book of job chapter 39 verses 19 - 25
Tags: Barrel, Racing, Horse, Secretariat, poem, Job, 39, 19-25, Tao, Yingarrani
Golfer channels Inner 'Happy Gilmore' [00:33]
Young golfer recreates a scene from the movie 'Happy Gilmore'
Tags: movie, happy gilmore, golf, sports, Sport, Film, Birthday, Action, Extreme, Happy Birthday, Combat, Winter, Football, Soccer, Association Football, Basketball, Water, Baseball, Hockey, Motor, Field, Arts, Martial, Trailer, Combat Sports, Martial Arts, Ten
[barbaro tribute] the horse with wings [02:27]
First of all, it's summer which means I have a lottt more time to make videos and hopefully better ones, haha. You can tell I have more time when you don't hear terrible cuts in the music :) I made a horse racing tribute a long long time ago, as in years, and ever since I've wanted to make a better one towards Barbaro. You can argue that horses like Secretariat, Ruffian, Seabiscuit were the best, and they all were great, but Barbaro was special to me. My parents recall watching Secretariat who I wish I could have seen, but I actually got to live through Barbaro's story- his progress, his triumph, his tradgedy, and healing- and the people who went along for the ride like the down to earth Jacksons.. humble and incredible Matz, and Prado. Although it was sad, you have to look back and actually see how amazing he was. He's gone now, but i'm so glad I got to see this horse with so much talent, desire, and heart win. I can't believe it's already been around four years. I didn't want to include the Preakness because I don't like focusing on his breakdown or injury. I climaxed it at the Derby and made it more on how he captured a Nation before his breakdown and gave us hope to witness a true champion. ** I DO NOT CLAIM OWNERSHIP TO ANY CLIPS OR AUDIO USED** Clips are all from the movie Barbaro: A Nation's Horse. Thank you all! (:
Tags: Barbaro, horse, racing, thoroughbreds, kentucky, derby, edgar, prado, michael, matz, horses


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News from N. Ireland Branch meeting 11th June, 2012
15 June 2012
Photos of branch meeting available using the following link -
- Adam Knight is the new Chair of the branch, Cathy Brennan- Bradley (Vice Chair) Carol Moore (Secretary) and Michael Anluan (Treasurer).The remaining members of the committee include BB Tohil, Brigid Erin Bates, Fleur Mellor, George Shane, James McAnespy, Aaron Og Barr, Kat Regan, Maggie Cronin
- Adam said it was an exciting time for the arts and performers in NI and that he hoped the Branch would support members in regards to campaigns, training etc and Carol added that the branch welcomed any news from its members in Northern Ireland, so it could be uploaded to the branch website. Committee member Kat Regan is taking responsibility for branch information on face book. Since the branch website can't upload photos or video at the moment, we will try to create links so you can view photos. Carol's email address if anyone wants to get in touch is firstname.lastname@example.com
- Drew McFarlane (Equity Organiser for N. I.) talked about the new campaign "Make it Here" and asked all Northern Ireland members to get behind the campaign where Equity is calling on the entertainment industry and governments to invest in programmes made in Northern Ireland. Stephen Spence, Equity's assistant general secretary has stated that: "One of the issues our members have is often a programme is labelled 'BBC Northern Ireland', 'BBC Scotland' or 'BBC Wales' but in reality there are few – if any – opportunities for performers in the nations to appear in them." A great example of how investing locally can reap rewards is the success of the film The Shore, which won the live action short film category at the Oscars 2012. The movie, which tells a story of reconciliation through the eyes of a returning emigrant, was shot on location at Coney Island, Co Down, Northern Island and starred local actors Ciaran Hinds, Conleth Hill and branch committee member and former Equity Council member Maggie Cronin. The campaign will try to reorientate politicians thinking since the arts is a major economic driver, with Game of Thrones bringing 45 million into the local economy. A template letter is being drawn up by Drew that members can access, add their names to and send off to their MLA's. Stickers are also available.
- In the council report Maggie Cronin contrasted the greater confidence with films like The Shore, Good Vibrations and Jump and that of ACNI's decision to cut the funding of Northern Visions. A campaign by professionals and the community alike has given the organisation a reprieve and demonstrates that in N. Ireland we have found a unifying voice that is willing to fight on behalf of the arts.
- George Shane attended the ARC were council discussed proposed changes to current Equity, which was eventually passed. George felt that it is not structures that will solve the problems but tackling the fears and insecurities of performers in the current climate and has suggested the branch run induction meetings/workshops for new members or those considering joining.
- Amanda Doherty (Member) from Derry has put herself up for the Equity Council, General List. The N. Ireland branch supports her and requests that members vote for Amanda to represent the interests of members here. Poll closes 12 noon on 11 July 2012. Amanda states "… I am dedicated to enhancing the level of work for actors here. We are currently experiencing an unprecedented boom; new theatres, new BBC dramas and HBO's Game of Thrones. However it will require constant work to keep this up. It is our duty and responsibility to ensure this boom takes root and blossoms into a thriving industry; leaving a lasting legacy and success story."
- Adam reported a proposal has gone to council that the ARC returns to Belfast in 2015.
- Actors Agency, Medium Mogul, based in N. Ireland, has ceased trading and left a number of members with no agency. It was discussed at the branch meeting that we might invite a speaker to discuss the pros and cons of an actor's co-operative agency. It was also suggested that agents might be invited to talk about the challenges of representing actors.


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Sound Oil, the Italian focused upstream oil and gas company, is pleased to announce a Gas Sales Agreement ("GSA") with Steca Energia Srl ("Steca").
As previously announced, the Company expects to commence production from the Rapagnano field shortly, targeting an estimated 1.3 Bscf (P50) over a thirteen year field life. The Company will directly connect the well to the local low pressure grid, operated by Steca (a local gas distributor), who will purchase the gas.
The key terms of the GSA include:
· Gas priced initially at �?�0.316 per Scm (US$11.2 / Mscf), varying quarterly based on a basket of commodity prices (Diesel, Brent and Fuel Oil as published in Platts) with an estimated average 2013 price of �?�0.320 per Scm.
· Optionality for Sound Oil to increase production during the winter period and benefit from a �?�0.16 per Scm price increase.
· No penalties for Sound Oil in the case of reduced or a period of zero production.
· A guarantee deposit from Steca covering one month of production.
· Contract conditional on the concession award, expected shortly.
James Parsons, Sound Oil's Chief Executive Officer, commented:
"The Company continues on track to achieve the strategic milestone of first gas, having now secured the gas sales contract.
This initial revenue stream will enable Sound Oil to cover a large portion of its overhead costs in Italy."
Source: Sound Oil plc
To access over 3,000 of the latest oil projects from across the world visit Projects OGP for free trial today


text: senate minority leader Senate Minority Leader Reviews State Legislative Session By Mike Osborne • May 22, 2012 State of Tenn. MURFREESBORO, Tenn. (WMOT) -- Tennessee Senate Minority Leader Jim Kyle of Memphis is speaking out on the just completed state legislative session. Kyle notes that the 107th General Assembly was the first in decades under the control of a Republican House, Senate and Governor. The Shelby County Democrat says his party was able to do little more than react to a Republican agenda.


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Robert Harold Levenson, who was as famous for his taglines in the golden age of advertising as he was for his roses in East Hampton, died in New York City on Jan. 16. He was 83 and had chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.
Mr. Levenson was eulogized in print and blogs in the last week by the advertising industry as a visionary and a generous mentor who told copywriters to imagine they were writing a letter and describing something to an intelligent friend who knew less about the product than they did.
He came of age in his field during the time fictionalized on television's "Mad Men." He was elected to the Copywriters Hall of Fame in 1972 and won every major award in the advertising industry several times, according to his family.
In a career spanning most of the last half of the 20th century, primarily at Doyle Dane Bernbach, he rose from copywriter to creative director to chairman of its international operations over 26 years. A friend of Bill Bernbach, one of the founders of the agency, Mr. Levenson wrote "Bill Bernbach's Book: A History of Advertising That Changed the History of Advertising" in 1987.
His most memorable campaigns include work for El Al airlines with a tag line "My Son, the pilot," the Volkswagen Beetle, and the jingle: "Everybody doesn't like something, but nobody doesn't like Sara Lee." He also was in charge of a highway safety campaign for Mobil called "We Want You to Live."
Mr. Levenson also was a friend of The East Hampton Star, writing and contributing a full page advertisement in 2007, "Welcome to the Neighborhood." His caricature on the wall at the former Della Femina restaurant on North Main Street in East Hampton was one of many drawn by his second wife, the late Kathe Tanous, with whom he lived in East Hampton. Until moving to East Hampton in 1986, he had lived in New Rochelle, N.Y., and in New York City. His most recent address was in Bokeelia, Fla., where he lived on an island, which his family said was very dear to him.
Mr. Levenson was born to William and Frieda Levenson on Nov. 23, 1929, in the Bronx and was raised there. He had an undergraduate and graduate degree in English from New York University and had served in the United States Air Force.
He worked at Doyle Dane Bernbach from 1959 to 1985. He also held positions at Saatchi and Saatchi and at Scali, McCabe, Sloves, according to The New York Times.
He is survived by his wife, Anna Jane Warshaw. His marriage to Elaine Berk, with whom he had two sons, Keith Levenson of Pound Ridge, N.Y., and Seth Levenson of Park City, Utah, ended in divorce. He is survived by his sons, a stepdaughter, Katherine Warshaw-Reid, and a step-granddaughter.
The family has suggested memorial contributions to his step-granddaughter's education fund: Kyra Wilkowski, 76 White Birch Road, Pound Ridge, N.Y. 10576. A memorial service will be held at a later date.


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Jason Stipp: Next we're going to move to our portfolio piece of the presentation. We've got Christine Benz here. She's our director of personal finance. She has also served as Morningstar's director of fund analysis in the many years that she's spent here with the company. She is also the author of a couple of books including 30-Minute Money Solutions. This is where she walks investors through quick and easy ways to get their financial house in order.
Christine is going to be walking you through how to do a checkup on your portfolio, and interestingly she has got three key risk factors that she is going to have you keep an eye out for. We will have a Q&A session with Christine following her presentation. So please do keep those questions coming specifically on the portfolio section. We'll be taking your questions on that after her presentation.
Also, Christine's slideshow is available for you to download. If you click the link of her slideshow presentation beneath your webcast player, you'll be able to access those slides. So I'd like to welcome now Christine Benz, our director of personal finance. Christine?
Christine Benz: Thank you, Jason, and thanks to all of you for watching today. Before I get into the presentation, I would like to quickly share my overarching philosophy on checking up on a portfolio, and I really have two key parts to the philosophy. The first is less is more. So, I recommend a quarterly checkup at most. I think for many people a semi-annual or even an annual checkup, where you do a thorough review of your overall portfolio and your holdings is just fine. I think the more you check in on how you're doing, the more you're inclined to get in there and monkey around and maybe make some trades that aren't necessarily in your long-term best interests, and you might also rack up some tax and trading costs along the way. So that is the first ground rule.
The second is to the extent that you possibly can, and I know it can be difficult to tune out performance, but I think it's useful to focus on what fundamentally is going on with your portfolio. So you'll see that in the review that I will talk about as we go forward, I've really focused on fundamental factors that underpin a portfolio.
So let's just give a little roadmap of where we'll go in this presentation. First of all, I'll talk about how to check the viability of your current plan. So if you don't have a lot of time to devote to checking up on your portfolio, think at the very least it makes sense to check up on this and see if you're on track or if you need to make some midcourse adjustments.
The next part of a portfolio review involves taking a look at your aggregate holdings and your aggregate weightings. How do they look like in terms of asset allocation, sector weighting, style exposure, and so forth? The next step of any portfolio review is to dig into individual holdings, and as Premium users of Morningstar.com, you have a lot of tools at your disposal to do that. I'll talk about how to avail yourself of those tools.
As Jason mentioned, I will also talk about troubleshooting some risk factors that I think exist for a lot of investor portfolios these days. So the first three steps are more or less evergreen. These are steps you'd want to take regardless of the market environment. The last step will look specifically at risk factors that lurk for investors right now.
So the first step is to check the viability of your plan. Ask the question "How am I doing?" and set about answering it. I would really break this task up into two key groups. First of all, if you're an accumulator, what you've got to check up on is whether your current savings rate combined with your portfolio value to date puts you on track to reach your financial goals.
Morningstar's tool for this task is called Asset Allocator. It's located on our Tools tab of the site. You just click on that tab, and if you have a portfolio saved on Morningstar.com, Asset Allocator can actually harness your holdings and use your own asset allocation, your own style exposure, to help determine whether your current portfolio and your current savings rate and additional contributions put you on track to reach the amount that you hope to have at retirement or any monthly income that you expect to have during retirement. So Asset Allocator, I think is a great one-stop tool that does, in fact, harness your individual portfolio holdings, but investors can also look at some other tools.
In fact, I think it's a good idea to sample a range of opinions on this important question of whether your portfolio is on track. So a couple I like are two from Fidelity. The Retirement Quick Check is kind of a quick and ready tool, but nonetheless another source of guidance on whether your current savings plan and portfolio are on track. The Retirement Income Planner I know is one that a lot of our Morningstar.com users have told me that they have gotten a lot out of. It's definitely a good tool for people who are closing in on retirement and have some visibility toward what their in-retirement expenses will look like. T. Rowe Price Retirement Income Calculator is another terrific tool.
I would say regardless of what tool you use, just make sure that it's as holistic as it can be possibly be. So ideally any tool you use would factor in the fact that some of your assets will take a haircut when you retire because you'll actually pay taxes on those assets. So if you have traditional 401(k) or IRA assets, for example.
Another factor that should go into the pot would be inflation. So you'd want to make sure that any tool is factoring in the role of inflation. You'd also like to see a tool that is factoring in other sources of income that you might have available to you in retirement. So for many of us, we'll also have Social Security, for example, to augment our retirement portfolios. The more holistic tool you use, the better.
Another thing that you want to check your progress on if you're in accumulation mode is whether you're on track, if you possibly can, to meet the maximum allowable contributions to both 401(k)s and IRAs for the calendar year. So in 2012, the 401(k) contribution limits are $17,000 if you're under age 50 and $22,500 if you're over 50, and the contribution limits for IRAs are the same as they have been in years passed, $5,000 for those under 50 and $6,000 for those over 50. I would also point out that those contribution limits for both IRAs and 401(k)s are the same regardless of whether you're making Roth or traditional contributions. So the effective contribution rate for Roth contributions is actually higher than is the case for traditional contributions. That's an important thing to keep in mind.
If you are retired, one of the key things you want to focus on if you are at the point where you're actually withdrawing assets from your portfolio is whether that withdrawal rate is on track to not prematurely liquidate your nest egg. I think we could devote a whole presentation to this idea. It's so important and such an important part of retirement planning, but one rule of thumb that is often thrown out there as a sustainable withdrawal rate for retirement is that 4% rate. That means if you had an $800,000 portfolio on day one of retirement, that means that your initial withdrawal in year one would be $32,000, and then you would subsequently inflation adjust that amount in every year thereafter.
So, the year-two withdrawal assuming a 3% withdrawal rate would be $32,960, but there are lots of different ways to think about these withdrawal rates. I think the key thing to keep in mind and the key thing that has come out through a lot of the important research that has been done in this area of withdrawal rates is that it's best to stay flexible to the extent that you possibly can. So I know a lot of retirees really prize the idea of a steady income stream; I know I do in my working years. But to the extent that you can be somewhat flexible, especially during periods of market duress, the better. So if you are able to reduce your withdrawal rate in periods of extreme market depression such as a 2008-type environment, that greatly improves your portfolio's long-term longevity.
The good news is as we've comes through the first half of 2012, the market has really behaved pretty well. So there probably aren't a lot of those midcourse corrections that are in order right now. If you were working with a withdrawal rate that was sustainable for you six months ago, chances are it still is.
So once you've gone through that process of checking up on how you're actually doing, the next step is to spend a little bit of time evaluating how your portfolio is positioned, and the favorite tool for doing this is using Morningstar's X-Ray tool, which is available if you've got a portfolio saved on the site in Portfolio Manager you can tap into X-Ray right there. If you do not currently have your portfolio saved, you can use our Instant X-Ray tool to get your holdings into the site and take an X-Ray view of them, and then you can subsequently save them as a portfolio. In fact, I think that's probably the easiest quick and dirty way to get your portfolio on the site, to enter through that Instant X-Ray tool, which is on the Tools tab of Morningstar.com's cover page. Once you've got your portfolio holdings in, you can take a look at a view that, depending on your portfolio, will look something like this. You can see that the pie-chart gives you a snapshot of your asset allocation, which you can then in turn compare with your targets. You can see your style, exposure in the Morningstar Style Box. You can see your sector weightings, and below this on that little bit of screen that got cut off, you can see your geographic exposures.
So this is a great way to get your arms around whether you have any big inadvertent bets in your portfolio. I'm not saying that every portfolio needs to look exactly like the S&P 500 or exactly like the Dow Jones total market index, but I think you want to be aware if you are making any big bets in any one part of the market, you want to know where those bets are. So that's what X-Ray helps you with.
Here, I've just provided some benchmarks. Once you've gone through this process of X-Raying your portfolio, here are some tools to help you make sense of what you're looking at. So the U.S. market style I have portrayed in the style-box exposure here, you can see that the bulk of the market is concentrated in the biggest-cap stocks, roughly 75% of the U.S. markets' market capitalization resides and what we consider large-cap stocks.
Then I've provided some benchmarks below for your foreign versus U.S. exposure as well as your emerging- versus developed-markets exposure. Here again, most portfolios don't have 53% of their equity exposure in foreign stocks, but it's important to realize if you have substantially less than that that you do have a significant home-country bias going on in your portfolio.
On the flip side, I know lot of investors have become very engaged in emerging markets in recent years, and there is certainly a lot to be excited about long term in emerging markets. But I think you need to be aware if your portfolio's exposure is venturing much beyond this 13% or 14% level that is represented by the global market capitalization, you just have to understand that you are taking some extra risk there because developing markets have historically had higher volatility than developed markets.
Once you've gone through that process of seeing how you are doing and reviewing your overall asset allocation and style and sector and geographic exposures, the next step is to really take advantage of those Morningstar.com resources and drill into individual holdings. So I find that our Analyst Reports are the easiest way to quickly get my arms around what's going on with the various funds and stocks in my portfolio. Our analysts should be capturing pretty much in real time any salient developments at funds, stocks or exchange-traded funds. So I think that's a great all-purpose resource. Certainly, there are lots of great ratings tools also available.
We have our Morningstar Ratings for stocks, which can help you see what our analysts think the forward-looking prospects are for individual stocks. And for mutual funds, we have our new Gold, Silver, Bronze, Neutral Analyst Rating system, and you can use that to get a forward-looking view of what our analysts think are the prospects for open-end mutual funds.
So those are some tools you can take advantage of. You can also do your own due diligence, and I know a lot of our users really like to do their own homework and home in on specific data points. I have laid out some red flags that I would focus on in conducting individual holdings checkups. So those are listed here on this slide.
I wanted to spend the rest of the portfolio talking about risk factors that lurk for a lot of portfolios right now, and the first two here really focus on this tendency of many investors really since the financial crisis too want to prioritize current income over long-term total returns. I think investors rightfully are very much in "show me the money" mode. There has been really too terrifically large bear markets in the space of a little more than a decade, and investors are concerned that their portfolios could hit turbulence again. So they perceive current income as safety. But I'll talk a little bit about how I think that investors could be overdosing on income-producing securities and maybe not paying full attention to some of the risks that are going on.
Then I wanted to talk a little bit about what's on deck for taxes for 2013. Certainly, Congress could make a lot of changes between now and year-end, but I think it's well worth having on your radar some of the tax law changes that are set to go into effect and also be prepared to make some changes to your holdings preemptively to avoid getting hit by higher tax rates in the future.
Let's just take a quick look at what I see is risk factor number one for a lot of portfolios. It's that we've seen very strong performance from a lot of dividend-paying stocks. So valuations aren't quite what they once were a couple of years ago. When I think back to sort of 2010, early 2009 we had a very easy story to tell in terms of quality looking cheap, dividend payers looking cheap, and now a few years later, that's not necessarily the case. In fact, when we are prepping for the roundtable which we'll have later this afternoon, that was one of the first things Heather Brilliant, our director of equity analysis, said. Heather said that she thinks a lot of dividend payers are overdone and overvalued currently. I think it's worth getting in there, looking at the price/fair value ratios for any individual dividend payers in your portfolio or if you have a dividend-focused fund, looking at its role within your portfolio and just making sure that you're not inadvertently courting some extra risk there.
When you go sector by sector and look at our analysts' price/fair value ratios for the stocks within those sectors, you see a clear expression of the trend that Heather said she was worried about. So real estate REITs mainly, which tend to be quite an income-rich sector, you can see that that's our most overvalued sector currently based on the price/ fair value ratios of the companies that we cover within that sector.
Utilities, another income-rich sector, historically, are also trading above our estimates of their fair value. The same goes for consumer defensive stocks. A lot of those big-cap consumer staples names now we think are at least trading in line with our estimates of fair value.
Again, nothing terribly is scary with the exception of perhaps REITs, but nonetheless, [it's] something to keep on your radar if you're looking for great upside from dividend payers going forward. We think the valuations are pretty fair at this juncture, but by contrast, I do think if you're willing to venture into some areas that have some headwinds, that perhaps are more cyclically or economically sensitive, I think you can pick up a decent dividend yield at potentially a more attractive valuation.
One area that our analysts have definitely been calling attention to over the past few months has been the energy sector, which has been arguably a little beaten up for good reason because I think there are concerns about slowing global growth, but our analysts still think that the big-cap energy companies represent a pretty good value and they tend to have above-market dividend yields currently.
So that's just one thing to keep on your radar as you're thinking about your equity portfolio and thinking about positioning it for maximum upside in the years ahead.
One other thing to keep on your radar is the extent to which you balance riskier bond holdings with the safer stuff. So we have seen this strong trend over the past few years, really, but really picking up steam in the past six months or so where investors have been embracing riskier bond types. You can see why this is happening. Yields have been low. Yields on this safe stuff really would be hard-pressed to keep up with inflation at this point, whereas high-yield bonds and some foreign and emerging-markets bonds have yields that are appreciably better. So we've seen the stampede into some risky bond types. [This slide shows] the top five bond categories to which investors have been adding new assets. You can see that they've been balancing new investments in safer bond types like intermediate-term bond and short-term bonds, but they've also been adding very aggressively to what I consider noncore bond types.
The point I would make here is that you really do need to step back and think about why you have bonds in your portfolio. For most people this is not the return engine of their portfolio. It's the part of their portfolio that's going to serve as ballast for the risky stuff. This risk of venturing into categories such as high yield, for example, with a large share of your portfolio is that you run the risk of having your bond portfolio acting overly equitylike and not serving as that ballast that you intended to.
I'm not suggesting that we are retracing our way to 2008 anytime soon, but I've just provided a little bit of context here to show you the risks that may be embedded in some of these categories. In the case of high-yield bonds, for example, we had a terrible liquidity crunch in 2008, and the typical fund in the category lost more than a fourth of its value. Emerging-markets bonds also were very hard-hit during that period. So, again, I'm not suggesting that we are going to find our way back to that environment anytime soon, but I do think it's safe to say that higher-quality bonds in a true flight-to-quality or a true market shock will tend to outperform lower-quality or high-yield bonds in such an environment.
If I am saying that credit-sensitive bonds aren't a good place to go overboard with, what about long-duration bonds. Well, I would say that if I had to have my druthers, if you had to say, "Well, would you take credit-quality risk at this juncture or interest-rate risk?" I'm with Bob Johnson. I'll be more willing to take the credit-quality risk. So I think you need to be especially aware of what could go on with longer-duration bonds if interest rates were to head up in the years ahead. And of course, they have a lot more room to move up than they might go down.
So as part of your portfolio review, I think it's worthwhile to do kind of a stress test of the holdings in your portfolio to see just how they might respond in a period of rising interest rates. I have provided the stress test that came courtesy of Ken Volpert from Vanguard. He heads up Vanguard's fixed-income assets. Ken's simple formula is simply to take the duration which you can find on Morningstar.com or on a fund company's website and subtract from it the fund's SEC yield, which is a data point that you can find on the fund company's website. The amount that's left over is the amount by which you could expect a fund to lose if interest rates were to jump up by one percentage point in one-year period.
This stress test tends to work best for assets that are highly correlated to Treasury bonds. It tends to be less effective for assets, such as junk bonds, that have no correlation with Treasury bonds. So in the example I have provided here, Vanguard Total Bond Market with a current duration of 5.1, subtract its SEC yield of 1.8, and what you're leftover with would be a 3.8% loss give or take. This is a very rough formula if interest rates were to jump up by 1 percentage point in a one-year period.
Let's spend the rest of the presentation talking about what's on deck for taxes. There've certainly been a lot of political discussions about this, and my guess is that there will be plenty more to come. But as investors, I think it's best to just focus on what is actually happening. Certainly wait until their finality before making any changes based on what might happen to various tax rates in the years ahead, but here's what scheduled to happen unless Congress takes action.
We're set to see dividend tax rates jump up quite significantly from 15% currently for most investors to ordinary income tax rates. We're set to see capital gains taxes for most investors jump from their currently low level of 15% currently up to 20%. We're set to see broad income tax increases with the highest rate jumping from 35% back up to 39.6%. Estate taxes, even estates of folks who aren't high-rollers, will be taxable at a 55% rate and any estate over $1 million will be taxable at that rate, that $1 million sum also includes real estate assets. So you can see that you don't need to be a very wealthy individual to be subject to the estate tax based on what is set to happen in 2013.
We also have this new Medicare surtax that's going into effect next year. This one I think probably is pretty close to a sure thing due to the recent Supreme Court ruling about health-care reform, but we can see here that it's a 3.8% Medicare surtax that's set to go into effect.
So I just wanted to spend a little time on that one because that one is brand new for all of us. It's not something we've had before. What the tax will do is impose that 3% tax on the lesser of two items. It's the lesser of net investment income or any income over a certain threshold. For married couples filing jointly, that threshold is $250,000. For individual filers, that threshold is $200,000.
Net investment income for the purpose of this surtax includes what you might expect it to include. So it includes dividends, capital gains, royalties, rents and so forth, annuity income that is taxable. It does not include IRA distributions. It does not include 401(k) distributions. It doesn't include Social Security payments or pension payments. It's pretty artfully crafted to carve out retirees who are subsisting heavily on these sources of income. But it is nonetheless a tax that will fall on the lesser of those two income sources.
So let's take a look at how this surtax would work. I provided a couple of examples here. I don't think I have time to get through all of them. But let's assume we've got a married couple with $275,000 in adjusted gross income and another $15,000 in net investment income. For this couple, they are $25,000 over that threshold, so they've got that. But they've also got that $15,000 in net investment income, and because it is the lesser of those two numbers, that's the part that would be subject to the tax.
In the next case, we've got a married couple with $220,000 in AGI and $15,000 in net investment income. This couple wouldn't be subject to the surtax at all, because their AGI falls below the threshold. That is the lesser of those two numbers, so they wouldn't be subject to it.
This is something to keep on your radar as you position your portfolio for the years ahead, but it's generally worth noting that unless you have income that's high in absolute terms and a large share of that income is also coming from net investment income, you will not be subject to the tax. One of our readers recently pointed out, however, that those thresholds aren't currently indexed to inflation, so unless they are, there is the potential for the surtax to affect more individuals.
So, how do you diffuse some of these ticking tax time bombs between now and year-end? Well as I said you certainly don't want to put the tax cart before the horse, but you do want to think about positioning to make sure that you are at least mindful of what could happen with taxes in the years ahead. The tips that I've thrown out there tend to make good sense regardless of the tax environment, but a couple of them are sort of specific to this time period. One idea particularly for people who had long held winners that they were thinking about selling anyway would be to preemptively sell them prior to 2013 when capital gains rates are scheduled to go up.
Another idea, and I think this is an evergreen idea that makes sense no matter the market environment or no matter the tax environment, is to relocate those dividend payers to tax-sheltered accounts. [Dividend payers] have been fairly benign in taxable accounts for the past several years since 2003, but they could become less so in 2013. Muni bonds make sense on a number of levels. For one thing, they are not subject to this new Medicare surtax, so they are not counted as AGI nor are they counted as net investment income, so I think that's a reason to consider munis and a reason to give them another look even if you're not in the highest tax bracket.
Maxing out tax-sheltered accounts is another other strategy that makes sense, regardless of tax climate but particularly so right now, when you can receive perhaps a reduction in your reported income in the year in which you make the contribution. You can also avoid paying taxes on income and capital gains in the years in which you receive them if they're held within the confines of the tax-sheltered account.
Finally, you can also reduce your exposure to the surtax by the extent that you get investments over into the tax-sheltered column. We talked about how those distributions are not subject to the surtax because they're not counted as net investment income. The extent that you can do that that's also a positive.
As we've been discussing often on for the past few years, Roth anything in a climate that could feature higher tax rates in the years ahead could make a lot of sense. So that means discussing conversions with your tax advisor. If you're young person and you're just sort of at the beginning arc of your career path, you may want to think about opting for Roth contributions to 401(k)s and IRAs because there is a good bet that your tax rates in the future will be higher than they are today.
So with that, I want to take a pause, and I know that Jason and I are going to take some questions from the audience, and I look forward to hearing from you. Thank you.
Stipp: Thank you, Christine. So I'd like to remind you, we've gotten some great questions so far. Please do go ahead and input your questions for Christine. Now's your chance. We would love to hear from you. We want to know what's on your mind, and we will be reviewing those questions in real time. So it's not too late. Please do let us know what you'd like to hear about. Christine can address your questions.
Christine, we had this question about asset allocation; this is one of probably the most important decisions you make on your portfolio. This person said, they've managed, and I think this is to their credit, to have a pretty well-sized portfolio for what their needs are, and they're wondering if they feel like they'll have an overage or they might have more money than they'll be able to use in my lifetime. Does that affect their portfolio allocation, and how they might allocate their assets? What are some of those swing factors there?
Benz: That's a really good question. It's a good problem to have. I wish more people had that problem, but I think the key thing to keep in mind if you find yourself in that situation, you want to think about what your other long-term goals might be for that money. For a lot of people, particularly with children or grandchildren or even favorite nieces or nephews, it's more about setting money aside for the next generation, which typically would call for having a higher equity exposure, especially if you are a fairly young retiree or something like that. You would have a lot of time for that money to compound and grow over the years for your heirs.
So if you are in that enviable position that probably calls for having more equity exposure than you otherwise would.
Stipp: A lot of our readers are very concerned about their bond allocations, the allocation to fixed income. We do know that there are indexes out there, total bond market indexes, but we had a question about what are some of the rules of thumb generally for fixed-income allocations, and should we think differently about our fixed-income allocations given the current environment? How might you think about where you would allocate those assets? Should you carve out a sleeve that would be fixed income and put it in something more risky, for example, because the bond outlook is cloudy?
Benz: That's another great question and top-of-mind with so many of our users now. I do think it is a reasonable strategy to take maybe a component of what you might have otherwise earmarked for bonds and dedicate it to some other income-producing vehicle, whether it's most likely dividend-paying stocks, but I do think you have to mind the volatility profiles of bonds versus dividend-paying stocks and just how different they are. So I haven't run the numbers recently but last time I did, the standard deviation of the typical intermediate-term bond fund was just one fourth of what dividend-paying stock funds were. Usually, dividend-paying stock funds are pretty high-quality stock funds, so I think it's important just to be mindful of the fact that you're courting a lot of volatility with that part of your portfolio and really step back and think about, well, why do I have bonds in my portfolio. Not so much for return generation but stability and so if you have a high-quality fixed-income portfolio, and you're not really going way out on the duration spectrum, I think you can safely assume that even in an environment of rising interest rates, that part of your portfolio is going to swing around a lot less in value than any equity component would.
Stipp: What about Treasuries? I know there have been concerns about how much the Barclays Aggregate Bond Market Index has in Treasuries. We've been worried about Treasuries just because the yields have been so low, yet we see Treasuries continue to perform so well. How should you think about Treasuries given that their performance has been a bit confounding recently?
Benz: It definitely has. I hate to be sound milquetoast about it, but I do think it makes sense to balance Treasuries with other securities in a fixed-income portfolio. I know that there was this big vogue to sort of starve portfolios of Treasury exposure a couple of years ago and as you said it didn't work out that well. The other thing we've seen is that in true flights to quality, Treasuries tend to outperform other asset classes. So I think that while you may not want to go full on Barclays Aggregate for your whole bond exposure because as you said, Jason, it's very concentrated in Treasuries and other government bonds, I think you do want to make sure that you have at least some Treasury exposure in your portfolio. Or if you're opting for an active manager, make sure that you have a manager who has that in his or her toolkit.
Stipp: Having that diversification over the last couple of years has really paid off for folks who did have a slug of Treasuries they kept in their portfolio. We have several questions on inflation and how to battle inflation. I know you've done some work on inflation and the bite that that can take out of returns. So, the first thing I would say is, what magnitude should investors consider for inflation? We seen it be relatively mild, but over time it's taken a pretty big bite, right?
Benz: It has, and when you run the numbers and look at how much you need inflation-adjusted versus non-inflation-adjusted, it's pretty staggering that what looks like a decent pile of money, once you account for inflation over say a 20-year period, it's maybe not enough. So that was one reason, Jason, I was saying any tool you use should absolutely be factoring in the role of inflation. That's a fundamental underpinning.
In terms of specific investments that I think work well against inflation, Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities are the most direct vehicle for doing that. The problem is they are Treasuries, so their values have been bid up pretty well over the past few years.
Dividend-paying stocks or stocks in general I think give you the best long-run chance of outgunning inflation. And then another category that I think is probably worth a look is bank-loan investments. I noticed that investors have been yanking money recently because yields are no great shakes there in absolute terms. But they have a neat feature that makes them sort of impervious to rising interest rates so the yields that they pay or the interest rates on the loans actually reset upward as interest rates go up. So I think it provides kind of a neat hedge against higher inflation. Those would be some of the key things I would have in a toolkit.
Stipp: Do you have a take about commodities and the percentages that you might want to consider for commodities in a portfolio for inflation?
Benz: You know, I have been watching that category. I know Ibbotson, a Morningstar company that focuses on asset allocation, typically recommends an allocation in the 5% or 6% range. My view is that a lot of the commodities investments that have rolled out over the past, say, five years were not quite ready for primetime and that they're not perfect trackers of commodity prices. So I think a lot of investors if they have, say, energy exposure, any energy equity exposure in their portfolio, that might be adequate rather than going out and purchasing that dedicated commodities play.
Stipp: One thing that I will say about inflation overall is if you think that we're in for a lower-growth, lower-investment-return environment when you factor in inflation, when you factor in investment fees on top of that, it really can make your returns quite low. So it just pays to do what you can for inflation and also to really keep an eye on those fees because if you're talking about a 6% or 7% return environment for stocks and maybe a 3% or 4% return environment for bonds, it doesn't take a whole lot to bring those way down in real terms after fees.
Benz: That's so true. So I think you want to think about the total hurdle rate that your portfolio has to deliver a positive return. As you said Jason, once you factor in fees, I think people might think, "Oh, what difference does it make if I pay 1% or 2%?" Well, gosh, if you're lucky to earn 6% on a balanced portfolio, it makes a big deal. So, it's absolutely worth factoring in the whole gamut of the hidden hands that are going to reach into your portfolio and extract some return from it.
Stipp: Christine, we have a question from someone who says, "I am very close to retirement. Where should I invest money that I'll need in three to 10 years into my retirement?" I think this has to do with the bucket approach that you've espoused.
Benz: It does, and I love that our readers have really gotten into this idea of bucketing. The idea is sort of you're segmenting your portfolio based on when you expect to need your money. So one strategy that we've set out on Morningstar.com is sort of looking at bucket number one as cash or maybe a very safe short-term bond. Three through 10 is kind of your intermediate-term portion. So you think about assets where you'd want to have sort of that three- to 10-year time horizon. That's bonds, certainly high-quality bonds. It might also be say a high-quality balanced fund. So I know a lot of our users love Vanguard Wellesley Income and Vanguard Wellington Fund, which is sort of a value-oriented stock piece combined with a good quality fixed-income piece that's maybe a little heavy on corporates.
But I think that that's probably where you want to go with years three through 10, bond funds and balanced funds. And then 10 and beyond, that's your growth engine, so you want to hold primarily stocks. That's where you are holding international stocks; that's also where you are holding very risky bond types, such as high-yield bonds.
Stipp: So we're running a little short on time, but I wanted to get a couple of more questions in, and you're actually going to be sticking around for our final panel, so we can pull some of these questions into that Q&A, as well.
A question on required minimum distributions. The major question that we got was I think some people want to avoid having to take them if they don't have to but they obviously do need to take RMDs for some kind of retirement accounts. What if I don't need that money though? What should I do with that money if I have got to take something out of my 401(k) or my IRA?
Benz: That's a great question. First, Jason, I would say that one alternative if you are a very high income earner and you're concerned about RMDs and you don't think you need the money, is that you ought to look at conversions. So if that IRA money, for example, is mainly there for your heirs, it's worth talking to a tax advisor to run the numbers on whether converting those assets or some of those assets makes sense, but there are a lot of people who are in this boat where they say they don't need the RMD money.
You can certainly reinvest it. You can't reinvest it in a traditional IRA once you're at that age where you are taking RMDs. But if you are say 70 1/2 taking RMDs and you have enough earned income to cover a Roth IRA contribution, you can actually reinvest in a Roth, or if your spouse has enough earned income to cover a spousal IRA for you. So I think that can be a really good strategy for people who find themselves in that mode where they don't need that RMD money, and they mainly want to pass on a good gift for their heirs. Roths are blessed on a few levels. But one of the big advantages is that you never have to take RMDs and that money will pass tax-free to your heirs. It won't necessarily be free of estate tax, though.
Stipp: Last question for you for this Q&A, Christine. The role of annuities, I think the income stream from, especially a simple annuity, is very attractive to folks, but there are a few things you need to think about with annuities, especially in today's environment, right?
Benz: Well, yes. So there are so many different types of annuities. If anyone is talking to you about any annuity type, just make sure you understand it backward and forward. I unfortunately talk to a lot of people who don't know what type of annuity they have. So, first just make sure you're doing your due diligence. There are no stupid questions when it comes to annuities because they're horribly complicated.
Then to home in on your specific question, Jason, if you're looking at the most simple type of annuity, an immediate annuity, or a single premium immediate annuity it's sometimes called, the bad thing about such a product right now is that because interest rates are very low, the insurance company knows that it's not going to be able to earn much on your money. So payouts are also depressed.
So I think that there is a big risk if you are just entering retirement, and you want to lock in that current stream of income. Unfortunately, if you're opting for one of these products, you're locking it in at historically low interest rates. So a better strategy, one that Harold Evensky, the guru of financial planning has talked about, is just laddering those annuities over a period of years, so planning to maybe buy one right now, waiting to buy another one in year two when maybe interest rates are more favorable, and on down the line. And the beneficial side effect of that is that you're also diversifying your risk across multiple insurers because I think the thing that we all worry about is that you might invest your assets with an insurer that in turn runs into some financial trouble.


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Categories: Legal Theory and Jurisprudence
Instructor(s) Kaplan, Leonard
Selected Problems in Jurisprudence: The Problem of Evil
Contemporary political and cultural thought points to and employs a concept of
evil. So we have a
president talking about the "axis of evil." Legal thought though has
not worked "evil" into its discourse. In fact modern legal thought
has excised much of the discourse that had been the western inheritance from
liberal state and in the globalized world the question of what it means to
attribute the notion of "evil" to, remains a real problem.
This seminar will explore what evil has meant and the
changing nature of the concept from the ancients to modernity. We will do so by
critically considering a canonical text on this problem: The Book of Job. We
will read Job and consider the different interpretive understanding of Job from
the viewpoint of Judaism, Catholicism,
Protestant variations and the continued use of the book in to secular and post
modern thinking.
We will augment Job by considering the historical change in the notion of evil
in philosophic discourse. We will use Susan Neiman's text, Evil in Modern
Thought to engage the change in attitude concerning evil. Even with the
secularization of modern legal thought and the Enlightenment project, at least according
to some scholars, natural law traditions remain alive and even if
marginalized relevant. We will look at the state of natural law discourse to
see how and if such discourse augments our understanding of or transforms the
nature of how we define and employ evil as a concept. We will ask how evil then
remains marginal in legal language and yet necessarily informs it locally and
in globalized politics. Eberhard Schockenhoff's book, Natural Law and Human
Dignity will provide the text for centering discussion


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Tolbachik Volcano is not a single peak, but a complex of volcanic features superimposed on one another. The varied shapes result from differences in the chemistry, gas content, and temperature of lava. Over time the composition of magma feeding a volcano may change, generating volcanoes with complex shapes.
The current eruption, which started in late 2012, is on Tolbachinsky Dol, a lava plateau marked by small volcanic cones that formed during earlier eruptions. These cones stretch southwest from the summit of Plosky Tolbachick, a gently sloping shield volcano formed from layers of fluid lavas. Just to the west of Plosky Tolbachik lies Ostry Tolbachik, a steep-sided stratovolcano composed of layers of thick lava, ash, tephra, and other volcanic debris.
This April 5, 2013, natural-color image of Plosky Tolbachik, Ostry Tolbachik, and Tolbachinksy Dol was acquired by the Advanced Land Imager (ALI) on NASA's Earth Observing-1 (EO-1) satellite.
- Global Volcanism Program (2012, December) Tolbachik: Index of Monthly Reports. Accessed April 8, 2013.
- Kamchatka Volcanic Eruption Response Team (February 25, 2013) Plosky Tolbachik volcano. Accessed April 8, 2013.
- Rosetta Stones (2012, December 12) What's So Unusual About Tolbachik's Eruption? Um… Actually… Accessed April 12, 2013.
NASA Earth Observatory image by Jesse Allen and Robert Simmon, using EO-1 ALI data from the NASA EO-1 team. Caption by Robert Simmon.
- Instrument(s):


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|Episode Description
|Sunday, Feb 23, 2014 - 7:30 AM
"Postage Stamp Dispenser"
Speedy Delivery! Tim attempts to make paying bills an enjoyable experience for everyone, by showing how to turn Gothard Knutson's famous postage stamp dispenser. Never one to leave well enough alone Tim uses a threading system to mate the lid and body of the dispenser.. D
|More on LEARN/CREATE (PT)
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This week, The Standard-Times editorial board welcomes three new members from the SouthCoast community.
This week, The Standard-Times editorial board welcomes three new members from the SouthCoast community.
Joining the board for the first half of 2013 are Elaine Berke of North Dartmouth, William Carey of Dartmouth and Guillermo Gonzalez of New Bedford.
Berke is the founder and president of EBI Consulting Inc., a management consulting firm.
Carey is a retired Superior Court judge and longtime arbitration attorney. He also served many years as counsel to Ottaway Newspapers, both before and during its ownership of The Standard-Times.
Gonzalez is a psychiatrist practicing adult and family psychiatry in New Bedford for many years. He recently ran unsuccessfully for the New Bedford School Committee.
The three community members join the board's permanent members: Editor and Associate Publisher Bob Unger, Editorial Page Editor Jim DeArruda and Managing Editor for Online Publications and New Media Andy Tomolonis.
The community advisory board members serve six-month terms. They participate in all editorial board meetings with political candidates and other groups, although they do not officially vote on the newspaper's political endorsements.
They bring fresh perspectives and new ideas to the board's discussions and take away from the experience insight into their community, the issues that affect them and the way the newspaper brings information to the public. We are grateful for the time they volunteer.
In December, the editorial board said goodbye to the previous group of community advisory members, Mary Beckwith, Tobe Berkovitz and Jeff Pontiff.
The board chooses advisory members from a pool of applications collected during open application periods, which will be announced on these pages later this spring. Anyone can apply to serve.


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The Surprise Party
Marcia walked into the bathroom and got ready to take her shower. She had been working all day and wasn?t going out until she had cleaned up a bit. She slowly stripped away her clothes and started up the shower water. It took almost no time for the hot water to start spraying out of the shower, and Marcia gratefully stepped in to soak for awhile.
After a few minutes of standing motionless in the hot water Marcia put her head back and washed her hair. After she rinsed she reached up and grabbed the shower wand to clean the rest of her body. As the pulsating water pounded her body, the goose bumps flew up Marcia?s legs. As the hot water passed over her pussy, Marcia let out a gasp of unexpected pleasure.
The sensation stayed even after Marcia had rinsed the rest of her body. Marcia slowly put the full stream fully onto her clit and the vibration began to send waves of pleasure through her body. Marcia closed her eyes and kept the shower head still on that spot. Her breathing quickened and her pulse raced as her body began to build to an orgasm that almost caused her to fall face first to the shower floor.
After it was over, Marcia opened her eyes to see Tracy Standing there watching her. By the bulge in his pants, it was obvious that he had seen the whole thing. The hungry look in his eyes sent another shiver through her body and she took a step toward him. He met her halfway and her wet body pressed tightly against his. He kissed her deeply and his arms went around her body in a tight embrace. The bulge in his pants pressed into her belly and she thought she could feel his pulse through them.
?We better get ready, or we?ll be in this shower all night,? Tracy said as he finally pulled away slightly.
?Tease,? Marcia said as she gave him a little pout and then playfully slapped him on the shoulder.
?I?m the tease?? he asked with mock outrage. ?Who?s the one in the shower having orgasm after orgasm??
She laughed and stepped out of the shower. He walked out of the bathroom and headed into the bedroom. Marcia grabbed the large, fluffy towel and quickly dried off. She walked naked into the bedroom to see Tracy lying on his side on the bed. He watched her like a voyeur as she got dressed. They chatted about her day while she got herself ready. The feeling in her pussy was still there and it seemed like an orgasm was just a breath away?.
?So where are we going?? Marcia asked as they got into the truck.
?We?ve been invited to Carrie?s tonight,? he answered as he started the truck. ?We?re supposed to watch a couple of movies, and she?s ordering some pizza.? His hand strayed across the space separating them in the truck and he gripped her thigh with a friendly squeeze. As usual, his hand strayed north and this time she didn?t slap his hand away as he began to play.
The traffic was light and it took no time at all to get to Carrie?s house. She was standing at the door as they pulled up into the driveway. Marcia had always liked Carrie. They had been working together for about a year before Carrie received a promotion and moved to another store. They talked to each other on the phone and exchanged emails, but didn?t have a lot of time to visit often.
Carrie had medium length black hair and intense blue eyes. She was friendly and in Marcia?s opinion, very pretty. Carrie was a little overweight, but that didn?t take away from her sex appeal. Marcia walked up the steps and gave Carrie a hug.
?How?ve you been?? Marcia asked. Her body almost trembled when she felt Carrie?s body press against her. She smelled sweet and fresh and Marcia had to quickly pull away and walk on into the house.
?Well, I?m doing better now that you two are here. I was starting to get lonely.? Carrie replied with a laugh. As the three of them began to walk into the house, the pizza man pulled up. Tracy turned to him and paid for the pizza. With his hands full of pizza boxes, Tracy walked into the house and closed the door with his foot.
They all walked into the dining room and Marcia and Tracy began to get the table ready, while Carrie walked on into the kitchen. The table was quickly ready and Tracy sat down to dig in. Marcia looked everything over and went on into the kitchen to help Carrie. As she walked into the kitchen, Marcia saw Carrie bending over, getting something from the kitchen. Carrie?s light summer dress was stretched smoothly over her ass and Marcia could easily tell she wasn?t wearing any panties.
Marcia stood in the doorway watching as that wonderful ass swayed back and forth like a pendulum. She could imagine seeing Carrie naked, and feeling that silky smooth skin under her fingers. The warmth was immediate and Marcia had to stop from touching herself. Just then, Carrie pulled out of the refrigerator and turned around with her hands full of beer.
She smiled at Marcia and walked back toward the dining room. Marcia was holding the door open with her body and as Carrie passed by her back rubbed up against Marcia. The feeling of her body slowly sliding against Marcia?s already aroused body made Marcia bite her lip in frustration. She put her hand on Carrie?s hip as they made their way into the dining room.
Marcia and Carrie sat on either side of Tracy at the dining room table. The two women took some pizza out of the box and began to eat. The three of them talked and chatted while they lazily ate their pizza. It didn?t take long for the beer to start in on Marcia. She could always hold her liquor, but beer had a super effect on her. Her head was light and she was starting to feel frisky.
?Well, I?m going in to the other room and get the movies ready.? Tracy said as he stood up and stretched. ?Let me know when you are ready and we?ll get them started.? He walked into the other room and they could hear him getting the movie ready.
Carrie was silent for a moment and then said. ?I probably shouldn?t say this, but he?s starting to get a little more buff. Has he been working out??
?Yeah, you?d think he was in Hulk the way he runs around.? Marcia answered. ?But he is looking better, I have to say. I tried to get him to do a strip tease for me the other night.?
Carrie snorted into her beer and began to cough. Her beer spilled down the front of her dress, soaking her whole front. Her large nipples popped out immediately. Marcia?s eyes were glued to them and Carrie noticed Marcia noticing. She smiled and put her hands up to her breasts. Marcia sat entranced as Carrie slowly twirled her fingers over her wet nipples.
?I have to go and change, want to help me pick out my clothes?? Carrie asked as she slid from her chair and headed to the stairs. Marcia got up quickly and followed. Her eyes were glued to Carrie?s swaying hips as they went up the stairs. She had never imagined Carrie was bi like her, but it was a dream come true.
?Hey,? Tracy called after them. ?Where you going? The movie?s about to start.?
?We?ll be down in a minute, Carrie spilled beer down her dress and I have to pee.? Marcia said as she reached the top of the stairs. She went into the bathroom and closed the door. Peeing quickly, Marcia was washing her hands when the bathroom door opened. She thought it was Tracy coming in behind her so she said, ?Hey baby, what ya doing??
Marcia felt hands on her hips, rubbing up and down and then they moved their way to the front. Fingers touched her sensitive clit through her shorts and Marcia moaned. She leaned back and noticed that it wasn?t Tracy behind her after all. Marcia put her hands behind her back and felt bare skin. She felt bare skin because Carrie was naked.
Marcia felt Carrie?s hands as they played with the elastic of her shorts. Her stomach jumped at the touch of Carrie?s soft skin playing with her beltline. Carrie?s left hand reached and grabbed the elastic and her right hand traveled down into Marcia?s now wet panties. Her fingers slid smoothly with Marcia?s juices and they easily slid into her wet slit.
Marcia felt around and felt for Carrie?s pussy. Her fingers played lightly across Carrie?s pelvis and they quickly met at the junction. Carrie?s pussy was wet and she moaned as Marcia?s fingers explored. Carrie?s wet pussy offered copious amounts of lubrication and Marcia?s fingers slid back and forth effortlessly. Both women were feeling and rubbing, probing and sliding. Their breathing quickened as they both let go and enjoyed the feeling of mutual masturbation. As one, they came, both women leaning into each other and moaning with pleasure.
After the spasms of orgasm released their bodies, Marcia spun within the circle of Carrie?s arms and leaned in for a deep kiss. Their tongues battle in their mouths as their hands began to explore again. They moaned and caressed, their hands explored every part of reachable body. After a long time, Marcia pulled away for a moment; she noticed that somehow her shirt and bra had come off and that her shorts were around her ankles. Carrie pushed Marcia back against the vanity and lifted slightly.
Marcia lifted her ass and half-sat on the small sink. Carrie had gotten down on her knees and was kissing Marcia?s smooth belly. Marcia groaned and put her head back; she grabbed a handful of Carrie?s black hair and held her head in a tight grip. Carrie?s mouth and tongue worked wonderful magic on Marcia?s body as they quickly zeroed in on Marcia?s swollen clit. Carrie?s tongue slid up against Marcia?s clit and it felt like a bolt of lightning. Her lips surrounded that wonderful, sensitive spot and she sucked lightly, her tongue doing a mad dance on her clit.
?Oh, yes, Carrie, oh God yes,? Marcia panted as Carrie?s finger slid slowly in and out of Marcia. ?Oh, God, baby don?t stop, don?t stop.? Marcia?s body was building towards orgasm again as Carrie kept licking and banging Marcia with her quickly pumping finger. Marcia was just about to cry out with yet another orgasm, when her lips were covered by another pair of lips.
Marcia opened her eyes and pulled back, her surprise abruptly ended her orgasm. Tracy stood right in front of her, fully naked and obviously aroused. His eyes were hooded and his expression eager. He put his hand behind her head and bent down to kiss her neck. She looked down and saw that Carrie had a hold of his dick with her left hand and she was lightly stroking its thick length. All of the physical input finally took its toll on Marcia and her body succumbed to the enormous orgasm that possessed her body.
She came so hard she almost fell off of the sink. Her juices were all over Carrie?s face and she almost couldn?t catch her breath. Carrie pulled away from Marcia and took Tracy?s large dick deep into her mouth. Tracy moaned and closed his eyes. Marcia leaned in and began to kiss his salty tasting neck. He held her close to his body as Carrie continued to lick and suck.
Tracy finally pulled away from both women and backed toward the bathroom door.
?Both of you, to the bedroom.? He said as he walked away down the hall.
The two women followed and they all bounded to the bed.
End of part one: Author?s note, for anyone who bothers to read this, please leave a comment so I can improve on these stories. I write these for my wife, so they are kind of geared towards what I know she likes, any feedback or suggestions would be great. Thanks for reading and I hope you enjoyed it.


text:
There could be even more bad news for those still reeling after a massive storm struck the Illawarra on the weekend.
Thunderstorms have been predicted for today and tomorrow, while strong winds could also hit the region later in the week.
Although Kiama, Jamberoo and Albion Park were worst affected by Sunday morning's intense weather event, evidence of storm activity can be seen in waters as far north as Austinmer and Thirroul.
Muddy water that washed into the ocean after the storm has left wide brown slicks off some sections of the coastline.
Poor water quality resulting from the storm activity has also forced the closure of Wollongong's Continental Pool, a Wollongong Council spokesman said.
Bureau of Meteorology forecaster Francors Geffroy said the Illawarra could expect a soggy end to the week.
"We do expect showers for the next few days and the possibility of storms as well, that seems to be increasing into Thursday [when] we're going more into rain conditions - rain and possible thunderstorms," he said.
Although unlikely to reach the same intensity seen in the Illawarra's south on Sunday morning, strong winds are also expected to buffet the region.
"There's a southerly change moving through on Thursday so we're going to expect some stronger winds coming through [and] there's possibly going to be a strong wind warning," he said.
"Then things start easing off what looks like Friday, although there are possible showers expected for the entire week into the weekend."
For help in floods and storms, call the State Emergency Service on 132 500.


text:
Old English cwen "queen, female ruler of a state, woman, wife," from Proto-Germanic *kwoeniz (cf. Old Saxon quan "wife," Old Norse kvaen, Gothic quens), ablaut variant of *kwenon (source of quean), from PIE *gwen- "woman, wife" supposedly originally "honored woman" (cf. Greek gyné "a woman, a wife;" Gaelic bean "woman;" Sanskrit janis "a woman," gná "wife of a god, a goddess;" Avestan jainish "wife;" Armenian kin "woman;" Old Church Slavonic zena, Old Prussian genna "woman;" Gothic qino "a woman, wife; qéns "a queen").
The original sense seems to have been "wife," specialized by Old English to "wife of a king." In Old Norse, still mostly of a wife generally, e.g. kvan-fang "marriage, taking of a wife," kvanlauss "unmarried, widowed," kvan-riki "the domineering of a wife." English is one of the few Indo-European languages to have a word for "queen" that is not a feminine derivative of a word for "king." The others are Scandinavian: Old Norse drottning, Danish dronning, Swedish drottning "queen," in Old Norse also "mistress," but these also are held to be ultimately from male words, e.g. Old Norse drottinn "master."
Used of chess piece from mid-15c. (as a verb in chess, in reference to a pawn that has reached the last rank, from 1789), of playing card from 1570s. Of bees from c.1600 (until late 17c., they generally were thought to be kings; cf. "Henry V," I.ii); queen bee in a figurative sense is from 1807. Meaning "male homosexual" (especially a feminine and ostentatious one) first certainly recorded 1924; probably here an alteration of quean, which is earlier in this sense. Queen Anne first used 1878 for "style characteristic of the time of Queen Anne of Great Britain and Ireland," who reigned 1702-14. Cincinnati, Ohio, has been the Queen City (of the West) since 1835.
(also queen it) To behave in a refined and haughty way (1611+)
Related Terms
closet queen, drag queen, main queen, size queen, tearoom queen, toe-jam queen
[homosexual sense probably a late 1800s alteration of quean, ''harlot, prostitute,'' influenced by connotations of queen, ''aged, dignified, tawdry, and overadorned'']


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The Great Pootatuck Duck Race returns
Updated 11:32 pm, Friday, May 16, 2014
NEWTOWN -- The Great Pootatuck Duck Race is back.
It will be held May 24 in Sandy Hook. Festivities start at 10 a.m. and the race begins at 2:30 p.m.
This popular charity race involves thousands of little plastic ducks that are dumped into the river from a truck to float to the finish line. It was started in Newtown by Gordon Williams, past president of the Lions Club, after he saw a similar event while visiting friends in Michigan.
"We had such a good time that I just had to get it started in Newtown," he said.
First prize will be $2,000. There are many other prizes, from restaurant and beauty salon certificates to hotel accommodations, as well as fitness and karate club memberships.
The race features a new cooperative arrangement with the Sandy Hook Organization for Prosperity. This year vendors and volunteer organizations will display wares and information along Church Hill Road. More than 40 exhibitors will participate, and many Sandy Hook business will have sidewalk sales and food and wine tastings.
There will be music and entertainment, including for children. Food and drink will be provided by the Methodist Church men's club. Emergency vehicles will be on display at the Methodist Church parking lot on Church Hill Road. Also on display will be the vehicles of the Newtown Underwater Search and Rescue organization.
Entertainment is scheduled for both the Church Hill Road area, by the Sandy Hook Hair Co., and the stage area behind the Village Perk. DJ Bob Schmidt will entertain from 10 to 11 a.m., followed by Solid Gold Times Two, an acoustic rock band. At noon, classic rock band Not Too Late performs, followed by Jim Allyn, the Fireside Radio Cafe creator, at 2 p.m.
DJ Oscar DeLos Santos entertains from 10 to 11:30 a.m. At 11:30 a.m. Gray's School of Irish Dance will perform, followed by the Newtown Juggling and Circus Acts Club at noon. At 12:30 and 1:30 p.m., Porco Karate students will demonstrate their skills. Magic Marty will perform magic tricks from 1 to 1:30 p.m. The final act of the day will be a performance by Graceful Planet at 2 p.m.
Newtown Lions Club members will be selling $5 tickets in advance at businesses, the public library and the Tax Collector's Office in the Municipal Center. Each ticket is represented by a plastic duck. The ducks are numbered so you can find out if your duck was a "good swimmer."
Admission is free; race tickets are $5. Call 203-837-6151 or 203-270-0332 for information, or email firstname.lastname@example.com.


text:
Get behind the wheel of the fastest Kart Racer ever! Feel the speed as you race some of the fastest karts on the most challenging courses around the world! This is where the F1 stars of tomorrow are born. Raw, low-down and dangerous: this is Kart Racer!
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text:
USFWS National Digital Library
The sound of a colony of singing
Tricolored Blackbirds - likened to cats
fighting - and the endless activity on a
cliff of nesting seabirds belies the
vulnerability of colonial birds to myriad
natural and human-related threats. The
latter include introduced predators and
competitors; disturbance to nesting,
feeding or resting areas; loss and
degradation of habitat; and fishery
conflicts. Fortunately, people can easily
reduce these threats by their actions and
Fight the Invasion
Alien species are those that have been
accidentally or intentionally introduced
into habitats where they are not native.
They are termed "invasive" if they cause
ecological harm, such as resulting in
habitat alteration and degradation, out-competing
or directly harming native
species. Birds gathered in colonies can
be especially vulnerable to invasive
species. Introduced species that prey on
birds, such as rats, cats, and foxes, or
that compete with birds for nesting sites
and food, such as House Sparrows and
Starlings, can depress or even eliminate
populations. Herbivores, such as goats,
and exotic plants can degrade habitat
quality or even eliminate use of sites by
colonial birds. Even insects, such as fire
ants, can kill nesting birds. Others
serve as disease vectors.
Help reduce the impacts of invasive
Never release unwanted animals to the
wild, and keep pets under control.
Drain water and remove any aquatic
weeds or other hitchhikers on your boat,
diving gear, jet skis, trailers, floatplanes
or other equipment before leaving an
Conserving Colonial Birds
- At Home and Away
Use native plants in landscaping.
Teach yourself and your children about
the richness of living systems and how
the reduction or removal of invasive
species is necessary to preserve
biological diversity and natural systems.
Participate in community groups
designed to restore habitat or to survey,
remove and report sightings of invasive
Learn more at
Do Not Disturb
It is possible for many birds to become
accustomed to human activities, and
some colonies thrive in areas of high
human populations. However, all birds
require "comfort zones" for nesting,
feeding or resting, and intrusion into this
space can threaten the birds' health and
survival. Disturbance at colonies can
have serious results. For example, when
wading birds are frightened from their
large open nests, eggs and chicks may be
scattered and left exposed to the
elements and predators. If disturbed
frequently, adults may abandon breeding
altogether, and the whole colony may
fail. Disturbance can have similar
effects on beach-nesting colonial birds.
On the open sand, exposed eggs and
chicks are subject to intense heat by day
and cold at night. Furthermore, their
coloration makes them practically
invisible on the ground, and people may
walk or drive over them unintentionally.
You can help reduce the harmful effects
of disturbance:
Keep your distance from wildlife on
land and on water. Your presence may
keep birds from feeding, resting or
returning to their nests.
Migratory Bird
Day (IMBD),
held annually
on the second
Saturday in
May, is an
invitation to
celebrate and
migratory bird
IMBD Information
web - http://birds.fws.gov/imbd
phone - 703/358-2318
IMBD Materials
web - http://www.BirdDay.org
phone - 1-866/334-3330
February 2004
If your property contains wetlands:
Explore alternatives to draining or
filling as means of bringing lands into
production: waterfowl habitat; hay,
forage or wild rice crops; hunting and
trapping leases; and selective timber
Select upland rather than wetlands
sites for development projects and avoid
wetland alteration or degradation during
project construction.
Maintain wetlands and adjacent buffer
strips as open space; there are easement
programs that subsidize these choices.
Learn more at http://www.epa.gov/owow/
Clean Up Our Act
Colonial birds' dependence on aquatic
habitats makes them to susceptible to
habitat degradation as well as loss.
Pesticides, fertilizers, metals, and
industrial chemicals have added large
nutrient and toxic burdens to freshwater
and coastal wetlands and open oceans.
These contaminants can poison birds
directly or damage the food chains upon
which they rely. Oil is a major
environmental threat: birds affected
annually by spills can number in the
hundreds of thousands in some areas.
Solid waste is also a problem. Colonial
birds, particularly seabirds, ingest
plastics and other artificial debris as a
natural consequence of foraging. They
are also caught in discarded fishing line,
nets and other wastes.
You can help reduce the effects of
pollution on colonial birds:
Be a careful user of pesticides,
following application and disposal
instructions carefully, reducing use, and
finding non-toxic or low-impact
Produce less waste: Reduce, reuse
and recycle. Look for alternative
materials or avoid excessive packaging
when deciding on purchases.
Participate in beach, river and stream
cleanups and monitoring programs.
If you fish, carefully dispose of lines,
nets, and hooks. Take the time to
recover miscast or snagged lines. Do not
encourage birds to loiter near fishing spots
by feeding them bait or fish wastes.
Do not intentionally force birds to fly,
e.g., while walking the shoreline.
Please steer your boats, kayaks, jet
skis, away from shore; this will minimize
habitat damage as well.
Keep pets leashed.
Honor the signs posted to restrict
entry into nesting areas.
Spread the word, sharing your
knowledge about the harmful effects of
Learn more at http://myfwc.com/
viewing/info/disturbance.htm and
Protect Habitat
Most colonial birds live near water, and
these birds' dependence on aquatic
habitats such as river and stream
corridors, wooded swamps, barrier
islands, and coastal estuaries makes
them especially vulnerable to the
numerous threats facing water and
wetland resources globally. As rivers
are altered and wetlands drained and
filled, colonial birds lose places to feed
and nest. The loss and degradation of
coastal wetlands, subject to the greatest
rates of human population growth,
development and associated disturbance,
are especially damaging, since colonial
birds are concentrated on coasts.
You can help protect wetland habitats:
Get involved. Find out where wetlands
exist near your home, try to learn more
about them, and support educational and
restoration efforts.
Support wetlands and watershed
protection initiatives by public agencies
and private organizations.
Purchase federal duck stamps from
your local post office to support wetland
Participate in the Clean Water Act
Section 404 program and state
regulatory programs by reviewing public
notices and, in appropriate cases,
commenting on permit applications.
Encourage neighbors, developers, and
state and local governments to protect
the function and value of wetlands in
your watershed.
Practice good housekeeping. Dispose
of trash and fluids (e.g., motor oil)
properly. This will help reduce the
amount of pollution that is washed into
our waterways from storm drains.
Do not release balloons into the
environment and cut the rings of plastic
six-pack holders.
Educate others about the harmful
effects of pollution on wildlife.
Learn more at
www.oceanconservancy.com and http://
Careful Consumer Choices
Great numbers of ocean-feeding colonial
birds (seabirds) are incidentally caught
and killed by longlines, gillnets, and
other gear used in fisheries around the
world (an occurrence called incidental
catch or bycatch). Fisheries can also
have indirect negative effects on seabird
populations, by reducing the availability
of prey or altering the sea bottom
By being selective about the fish we buy,
we can influence fishery practices,
reducing the deaths of seabirds and
many other marine animals. Based on
information about fish populations,
fishing techniques, aquaculture impacts,
and bycatch, Monterey Bay Aquarium
produces a consumer's guide to seafood,
categorizing seafood into "Best Choices,"
"Caution" and "Avoid."
Learn more about responsible seafood
choices at http://www.mbayaq.org/cr/
One of the more memorable ways to
contribute to colonial bird
conservation is to volunteer in
monitoring, research and
stewardship programs involving
these birds. The American Birding
Association compiles a directory of
volunteer opportunities for birds.
Programs range from monitoring
local Purple Martins to three-month
studies of seabirds on remote
Central Pacific Islands. Learn
more at http://
Click tabs to swap between content that is broken into logical sections.


text:
Last season, the final Manchester derby was a mesmerising spectacle that ultimately proved pivotal in the title race, with City's win allowing them to gain the belief and momentum to secure top spot at the end of a dramatic season.
This year no such drama will be repeated. The title will be heading to Old Trafford - barring a cataclysmic collapse from Manchester United - despite City's win at Old Trafford last night.
Apart from the win last night the blue side of Manchester has appeared tame and disjointed in the current campaign leading to reports that the club's owners are ready to dispose of their current boss.
Roberto Mancini was heralded as he led the Citizens to their first league title for over 40 years however, he has swiftly fallen out of favour this season as the Premier League has slipped from their grasp with very little fight.
A weak performance in Europe has not helped the Italian's cause, though admittedly they were in a tough group. Having said this, progression was by no means impossible and third-place was expected as a minimum.
So should Man City get rid of the man who has spearheaded their recent success?
There are plenty of reasons which would suggest it would be a justified decision. His lavish spending throughout his tenure has added pressure to him and quite rightly so.
An owner who has ploughed over £200m into the club in transfer fees for players such as David Silva, Sergio Aguero and Javi Garcia during his tenure would expect success.
It is also clear that the owners are hoping for more progress in Europe - Mancini has failed to deliver in both cases. Only an F.A. Cup victory could salvage what has been a poor season for City. On several occasions, City have been underwhelming, producing copious below-par performances with several key players failing to perform.
Mancini has persisted in trying to master playing three centre-backs, leaving them vulnerable in defence. He has also appeared to have fractious relationships with some of his players such as Samir Nasri, Mario Balotelli and Carlos Tevez.
Furthermore, his strikers will have lost confidence due to his constant lamenting of the fact that he failed to add Robin Van Persie to his £100m-plus strike force. His constant complaining is likely to have made some world-class players feel inferior, as seen with all of their lacklustre performances.
Having said this, his side are on the cusp of F.A. cup victory and look likely to secure second place. The signings made in the summer by now-departed Brian Marwood were poor and thus Mancini has not been given the best of squads to compete with. Scott Sinclair and Jack Rodwell have both been anonymous this season, whilst Javi Garcia has failed to shine.
A lack of alternatives could also work in Mancini's favour, with Jose Mourinho seemingly set for either Paris St Germain or Chelsea and Pep Guardiola heading for Bayern Munich.
Manuel Pellegrini still offers an attractive option should they be able to coax him from Malaga, and the same can be said for David Moyes at Everton.
There is a large part of me that feels it would be unfair to sack Mancini after last year's success, particularly at a time when managerial stability is scarce.
However, another part of me feels there are people out there who could do a better job than him, and that perhaps it is time for David Moyes to be given a chance at a top club. Only time will tell, but if Mancini fails to win the F.A. Cup it is possible that Mancini and City will part ways this summer.
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