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Cardiovascular disease is Ireland's number one killer yet 80 per cent of premature deaths are preventable. A new hard-hitting campaign from the Irish Heart Foundation www.irishheart.ie, #showsomeheart, created by Boys and Girls asks Ireland to 'Show Some Heart' and offer support for those affected or impacted by the disease.
Empowering, confident and contemporary, the film is a call to arms for a new generation to rise to the challenge and help defeat cardiovascular disease. It is directed by Peter O'Brien (P.O.B) of Motherland fame, who is regarded as one of Ireland's most talented young filmmakers who brings his own distinct and contemporary style to the piece.
With a tagline of "Wear a temporary tattoo to make a permanent change", the 60" film is supported by TV, radio, print digital, PR and social and features people from a cross-section of Irish society with real-life stories about the killer disease. The radio campaign is composed of temporary spots that often air just once. It's the first campaign of its kind in Ireland.
It features single radio ads that will last no longer than the few seconds supported by media partner, RTE 2FM, and running throughout February. Finally, for the print aspect of the campaign, the award-winning photographer Elliot Wilcox was enlisted to bring his talents to bear on the streets of Dublin. His vibrant editorial syle perfectly complements the film, featuring people who have experienced the cruelty of heart disease and stroke firsthand.
Annie Atkins, acclaimed graphic designer for film and TV – whose work includes the Oscar-winning movie, Grand Budapest Hotel – was approached to create an eye-catching, bespoke, temporary heart-shaped tattoo. The resulting image, which can be transferred on to the skin and removed, features a black and white wood-cut style illustration with the words "Show Some Heart" within the organ walls and next to a small red heart.
The tattoos are on sale nationwide for €2 in partnering retail stores, including Insomnia and Daybreak. People can also donate online and purchase tattoos at IrishHeart.ie so as to host fundraising events of their own. All funds raised by the sale of the tattoo will go directly to IHF which is hoping to raise at least €250,000 from the campaign.
Check out the ad at…
Michael Cullen


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Keep em Guessing, Let em Worry
We want to see more jobs. We want to see lower unemployment. We want to see a stronger economy that can cause the improvement to be sustained.
Ben Bernanke, September 2012
Huge economic problems in Greece, Spain, Italy and France? Heard it. Chinas economy slowing? Been there. A US unemployment rate over 8%? Yawn. Equity markets up over 10% for the year? So what. What Fiscal Cliff? The narrative of the jaded investor and the markets continues despite all the day-to-day sturm und drang that dogs the headlines. Are investors so numbed by the consistent parade of scares since August 2007 that anything short of sudden and terrifying crisis can get their attention? Or, is the slow but still significant improvement in the economy since 2009 sufficiently real to justify quiet optimism and hope?
We think its a combination of both. Moderate non-drug-induced desensitization mightnt be such a bad idea after nearly four years of near-hysteria. And above all else, one important fact is clear: despite the glacial pace of improvement, the economy is far better off today than just 3 years ago and after having weathered a near-miss economic Armageddon that kicked off the Great Recession a few short years ago.
Perhaps most importantly, Eurozone issues, China, and problems in the US are, frankly, old news. Unlike a year ago, the risks and possible impacts are known, and that is critically important. Fear of the unknown, after all, is what creates financial nightmares. Its likely that the markets feel that they have a grasp, albeit uncertain, of the problems and solutions, painful and complex though they are.
Major, very real challenges remain, frankly, not the least of which is that a sizeable chunk of Congress seems comfortable with committing economic hari-kari. Well see if those just to the right of Gunga Din are willing to put down their clubs and spare the US another government shutdown and S&P credit downgrade, and give up the goal of proving that government doesnt work after effectively destroying it. Should the Republicans take both houses and the Presidency, we can expect further painful cuts to social services and government jobs, which could push the economy back into recession. Thats not a likely outcome, however.
With those caveats in mind, short of a massive government effort to stimulate high quality jobs and critical industries, we expect the lackluster economy to continue to stumble forward, until such time as the natural business cycle picks up momentum and makes the recovery more obvious to all. The markets should continue to anticipate this slow, largely positive trend, and continue to benefit. A major geopolitical event or another domestic crisis could quickly very quickly derail this three-wheeled, precariously balanced train. But we feel that the derailment would still largely be temporary.
Dear Investor
Will he? Wont he? He will! The wait, finally, after months of conjecture as to whether or not Ben Bernanke would instigate a new round of Federal Reserve actions that might attempt to stimulate the economy, is over. After months of having danced around on the issue of whether the economy is sufficiently impaired to attempt to inject more stimulus through quantitative easing, or not, and implying by inaction that the economy isnt all that bad, the verdict is in. For months, Mr. Bernanke masterfully kept everyone in limbo, all along imploring Congress, with an increasingly louder voice, to take action to provide needed stimulus. The Congress remained steadfastly tin-eared, however, with the Fiscal Cliff, the legislation passed by the Congress that mandates broad, radical, and deep cuts across the board to key programs and defense expenditures alike at the end of 2012 (discussed shortly). Bernanke, recognizing the crushing impact this is likely to have on the economy, said enough is enough, and moved strongly.
Even though on first blush, the new, third round of stimulus, called QEIII (Quantitative Easing) seems modest at best in terms of impact, the words and commitment that are accompanying this effort border on extraordinary. Steering away from the usual focus on inflation, Bernanke appears willing to wage war against joblessness and for economic growth.
QEIII hits on several levels. First, recognizing the importance of stimulating housing and through it, employment, the Federal Reserve will seek to purchase weaker mortgage backed securities from banks to help them clean up their balance sheets, freeing them to offer up new and lower rate mortgages. Second, the Fed will extend near-zero short term interest rate lending to banks through 2015. Third, the Fed will continue to monitor and is prepared to act on job data for the indefinite future as it has elevated its focus on jobs and employment.
While many economists and Congressional Republicans criticized the action as likely having little or no impact, they and most of the media and their collective talking points are missing the real point: this is Bernankes shot across the bow of a dysfunctional Congress, basically telling the Radical Right if you wont take action to stimulate the economy and jobs, I will. The Fed gave clear direction that it would continue, on a monthly basis, to consider job growth and take what it feels to be appropriate actions to help improve the situation. Bernanke has effectively thrown down the gauntlet.
The weak job market should concern every American The idea is to quicken the recovery, to help the economy begin to grow quickly enough to generate new jobs. Ben Bernanke, 9/13/2012
Frankly, Congress inaction forced Mr. Bernankes hand. With the Federal Reserve having the dual mandate of both keeping inflation under control and helping to achieve full employment, and with Congress paralysis on the latter, the Fed Chairman, despite a lack of consensus on the Federal Reserve Board (until recently, at least), felt it necessary to attempt to step on the gas to encourage additional lending.
Jobs, jobs, jobs. What has Mr. Bernanke distressed about is quite clear. Unemployment continues to be painfully high, with over 20 million people unable to secure full time employment, and economic growth excruciatingly low, at an abysmal 1.5% this past quarter. The European recession has further weakened the economy both abroad and at home, and Chinas economy, which like the rest of the world is still reeling after the great financial crisis, is growing more slowly than expected. The upshot is that economic growth, rather than the already low post-recession 3% range experienced much of last year, is now crawling along at half that. The economy is simply not producing jobs at the rate expected and needed, as Mr. Romney is quick to point out.
A rally scorned. So amid this extreme wall of worry, the equity markets, believe it or not, have rallied nearly 12% this year. This hated rally, so called because of the level of fear and anxiety it carries like a ball and chain, has come with a big disclaimer: market trading volumes have been at historical lows as compared to the rest of this last decade, as even institutions have spent considerable time on the sidelines. Most regular investing blokes have spent most of the last few years standing outside the back exit door. So fear-laden is the small investor, that he or she are willing to concede to miniscule bank CD rates rather than suffer the anxiety that might go hand-in-hand with the 12% return on equities. The risk of loss, as we well know, is a much more powerful influencer than the possibility of gain. For most people, the risk premium appears just too great.
Against this backdrop, the professional investor makes his mark. The challenge is getting regular investors to find a way to participate in this environment without having them lose their shirts.
Investor Unprotection, The Three Gorillas, Bollixing Barclays, and Knights Nightmare
With the investors so traumatized, despite the continued rise of the equity markets amidst all sorts of headwinds and setbacks, the vast majority who fled the markets from 2007 through 2009 have not returned, settling instead for earning hundredths of a percentage point of interest on bank or money market fund deposits, and probably for good reason. Lets face it: investors have little reason to trust Wall Street or the regulatory apparatus to protect them from disaster. Despite Dodd-Frank, financial reform continues to be resisted by Republicans and Democrats alike in Congress almost as fervently as by the Wall Street firms being regulated. SIPC the insurance fund designed to protect investors from insolvent brokerage firms -- continues to refuse to compensate victims of two of the industrys failures: Stanford International, and Bernard Madoff. None responsible for the largest financial crisis in the last 100 years have gone to jail. And those concerned about too-big-to-fail after the crisis find institutions to be bigger than ever.
With Wall Street money effectively running K Street and Pennsylvania Avenue in Washington, DC, the small investor simply isnt a big enough player. The original Tea Party activists who actively sought to distance themselves and Congress from Wall Street money are now in bed with those most closely beholden to the financial sector. Meanwhile, the Occupy Wall Street movement, a highly energized effort that had the goal of ripping Wall Streets hands off government institutions, has withered into irrelevancy revealing a mere skeleton of the inflexible, amateurish and anarchist activists whose efforts just happened to resonate with the zeitgeist of a broader population seeking empowerment. Regular investors have been left hanging on a branch, wiggling with the wind.
Meanwhile, the three Gorillas in the room, Europe and the Eurozone, the slowdown in China, and the dysfunction in Congress continue to loudly rattle their cages, although investors have grown increasingly non-reactive. How can that be? European leaders have attempted to kick the can up the road as they piece together and try solutions that make the challenges in the US seem like tic-tac-toe. Yet since the end of 2011, its been clear that Europe has been making real efforts to solve the crisis and limit the devastation. Banks have been propped up, Greece and Spain have gone on austerity diets, and Germany has slowly but increasingly moved to loosen up its purse-strings to assist. Greece may be beyond help, and huge problems continue to confront Spain, Europes fourth largest economy, but the European Central Bank (led by Mario Draghi) seems optimistic that the Eurozone will emerge from their huge debt issues and current recession, and investors concerns have been somewhat pacified. A recent announcement by the ECB to purchase distressed bonds from struggling nations in the Eurozone sends an important message that, short of saving Greece, the other larger nations will be protected. So, in addition to investors worldwide becoming increasingly desensitized to Europes woes, real, albeit slow actions by Europes decision-makers and governments are helping to save the Euro.
China, after the United States, the worlds largest consumer and soon to become the worlds largest economy, has struggled to limit the slowdown in its economy. Not only has it had to deal with an enormous real estate bubble, but the massive slowdown in exports to the floundering developed world and emerging markets has had a profound effect on Chinas purchase of raw materials, agricultural supplies, and yes, US exports. That said, most experts feel that even a slowing Chinas economy is still a massive, growing, consumptive economy, and one which, unlike the US, has a relatively easy time making reasonable economic decisions and seeing them through. The joys of totalitarian rule. The long-term prognosis for China is very promising, however, as the economy slowly benefits from the inevitable rise in domestic consumption that comes along with the ever-growing and consuming middle class.
The US and the Fiscal Cliff. Well speak directly to the US economy in a moment, but for now the political mayhem in DC where terrorism does, in fact, appear to be legal -- is once again taking center stage. Remember the Debt Ceiling Crisis in 2011, when the House Republicans brought about a financial crisis as they nearly collapsed the economy by playing chicken with both a government shutdown and default on Treasury payments? Although it barely averted the first default on interest payments on US Treasury bonds and notes in history, a resulting credit downgrade which dropped the US from AAA to AA, led to a multi-market crash (stocks and bonds) and damaged the economy, while still only kicking the deficit reduction can down the road without rectifying anything.
What is the Fiscal Cliff? First, as a caveat, a reasonable reader might consider taking their pain medication at this time. The term, coined by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke refers to what potentially happens at the end of 2012 to substantially reduce the budget deficit: massive slashing of Federal spending (sequestration) along with substantial tax increases via the expiration of the numerous Bush and Obama tax cuts. The Fiscal Cliff, as Bernanke referred to it, will have the effect of massively reducing GDP growth, with the Congressional Budget Office and other economic research entities predicting a probable return to recession coinciding with massive layoffs and increased taxes on the middle class.
Two acts of Congress and subsequent ineptitude have taken us to this place. The Tax Relief, Unemployment Insurance Reauthorization, and Job Creation Act of 2010, signed during the lame duck session of Congress in 2010 sought to extend the Bush era tax cuts for another 2 years in an effort to maintain some economic stimulus and avoid politically difficult decisions during an election cycle. The Budget Control Act of 2011, signed into law in August 2011 came after a near government shutdown by the House Republicans over extending the debt ceiling normally a formality easily discharged by Congress, and ultimately led to the aforementioned credit downgrade, market crash, and downward turn in economic growth. It mandated that a bipartisan commission would come up with a new budget plan that would seek to reduce the large budget deficit and, failing that, force the nation into a dire budget slashing and tax increases that would, hopefully, incentivize a less radical solution.
Well, the bipartisan Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction was doomed on formation, as the Republicans hewed to the (Tea) Party line, and refused to include any increase in taxes (via the expiration of the Bush era temporary tax cuts) as part of the solution to reduce the deficit. No compromise was available, despite numerous well-intended efforts by more rational members on both sides of the Committee. After all, the majority of Republicans in the House signed pledges to Radical-in-Chief Grover Norquist to vote against anything that might be construed as a tax increase. And none wanted to incur the wrath of Mr. Norquist or the Party. The thought that one man outside of the elected domain could have such extraordinary control of a huge chunk of Congress is, frankly, stupefying. (Then again, the Citizens United decision is adding still greater pressures in this regard.)
So here we are, three short months away from potential economic and social homicide. While the bet in DC is that Congress will come together and finally agree on something: extending the deadline for a few months. We can only hope that the Congressional members, cognizant of the great damage caused by the government shutdown of 1994 and the debt ceiling crisis of 2010, will give way to compromise. We expect that the can, in expert congressional fashion, will be kicked down the road once again into the next Congress, barely averting disaster. Were also going out on the limb to suggest that a new Congress will give up the Grover Norquist ghost, and begin to make some headway.
Barclays and Knight Capital. If Europe, China, and fanatics in Congress arent enough to give investors hives, Barclays reminded us, only a few short years after the Wall Street-led financial crisis, why the system remains rigged. LIBOR the London Interbank Offered Rate was probably on the vocabulary list of a nerdy few, but suddenly had its fifteen minutes of fame. LIBOR, you see, is the rate charged by banks lending to other banks. That sort of thing would mean nothing to the average Jane, but it just happens to be a rate that is utilized as the benchmark for fixing the rate of adjustable rate mortgages, car and many other loans that consumers and businesses rely on every day. Youd think that, given the critical international import of such a ubiquitous benchmark, and a benchmark that forms the basis of hundreds of billions of dollars of transactions daily, and underpinning over $250 trillion in financial derivatives, that every effort would be made to insure that this rate was properly set, free from manipulation and perversion.
No such luck. It turns out that Barclays had been misrepresenting their rates for some time, with banks profiting massively from the manipulation by lending at higher interest rates than they were reporting and enjoying greater profit spreads as a result. Traders in the banks, aware of these manipulations, were able to exploit sudden manipulated changes in interest rates to generate massive profits in derivatives trades. Moreover, it turns out that regulators have either suspected or known for some time that this sort of behavior had been going on, and largely turned a blind eye. Indeed, it appears that this behavior has been common practice for at least twenty years, going back at least to 1991.
If that wasnt enough to spook the bejesus out of investors, even professional ones, Knight Capital did its level best to do just that. Knight Capital, you see, is one of the very largest trading and market making firms on the New York Stock Exchange, and one that engages in high-frequency trading essentially the use of automated, computer driven trading strategies that emerge, not from the brains and mouths of human traders, but rather, in I Robot-like fashion, from computers infallibly trading stocks at incomprehensibly fast speeds, bypassing any chance for human error.
So they say or said. On August 1, Knights trading robots went rogue, trading hundreds of millions of dollars of stocks at tremendous losses, roiling markets. Knight, however, suffered the biggest loss, as the value of their stock fell nearly 75% in the aftermath. The issue would have been less of a distraction had it not been for the infamous Flash Crash of 2010, when faulty high frequency trading algorithms caused nearly a 10% decline in equity stocks in just minutes. The fact is that many day-to-day trades are driven by these new technologies. Over the long term, stock prices more or less continue to reflect the potential earnings of their businesses. Still, the failures of Knight Capital and the Flash Crash before it have once again sent investors to the exits, with billions leaving the markets just over the last few months.
Jamie and The Whale. Back early in May, Jamie Dimon, the CEO of the Wall Street megafirm, JP Morgan, announced a trading loss in the London office of $2 billion. Much like a defense contract, however, by June that amount had shown losses that ballooned as high as $9 billion. It turns out a Mr. Iksil, a London trader at the firm, made a whale of a bad bet involving complex derivatives as hedges. Apparently while his immediate superiors had some knowledge of the trades, New York central did not. So what turned out to be a trade that was intended to be protected from significant downside risk, turned into something far worse, jarring the markets, the stock price and the credibility of Wall Streets premier firm and shining star, Jamie Dimon. With headlines about the debacle making leading even mainstream news as the markets jerked once again, Dimon was dragged through Congressional hearings, and investors, once again, were stunned that anything so large could happen under the wings of such a respected Wall Street firm. Déjà vu, as Yogi Berra so aptly put it, once again.
Investors, therefore, have every reason to feel that the game is either rigged, unsupervised, and/or capable of massive chaos due to things well out of their control. Even still, it remains remarkable that Congress remains reluctant to improve regulation and properly fund those in charge of oversight and keeping the markets sane and at least reasonably fair. Remarkable until one is reminded of the intimate relationship between the key Congressional members and Wall Street contributors.
Strengths, Weaknesses, Threats
Overall economic growth continues at a relatively slow pace, and with second quarter GDP growth revised downward to 1.3%, significantly slower than the 2.5% that was predicted by most at the end of 2011. Third quarter growth shows but a small anemic improvement, at a projection of 1.7%. The slow growth crawl, particularly given such a high unemployment rate has left many consumers with a slightly improving, but still dismal outlook that belies improvements across several areas. Business is less optimistic. Retail sales, durable goods orders have generally been improving over the year, although durable goods orders dropped significantly in August due to a drop in airlines orders. Personal income is also up slightly. Corporate profits remain strong, however, and earnings continue positive, with over 70% of corporations beating estimates, although projections going forward are less sanguine. Corporate sales revenues have improved now for 11 straight quarters, and corporations are holding record levels of disposable cash cash that, when appropriate, can be reinvested in capital purchases and additional hiring. With retail and industrial sales growing ever so slightly, and exports solid, the earnings picture seems more positive than negative.
The job situation so central to the mood in America remains improving ever-so-slightly, but still uncertain. Grave concern about the unemployment level, in fact, was the phrase used by Ben Bernanke to justify the latest Fed actions. The fact is that we have recovered nearly one-half of the jobs lost during the financial crisis and recession. Private sector job growth, unsettlingly significantly below 100,000 per month from April to June of this year, appears to be heading back up to the 100,000 per month area, although government jobs continue to be under tremendous stress due to continuing budget cuts on the state and local levels. Accordingly, the unemployment rate needle seems to be stuck around 8.3%, and U6, the Underemployment number those employed part-time, for example instead of full-time -- remains in the near-brutal 15% range. Monthly jobless claims remain high nearly 380,000 -- and seem to be bouncing around that number mostly all year.
Until businesses feel more optimistic and start hiring more aggressively, and until banks loosen the credit strings still further for small and medium size businesses, job growth is likely to continue at this slow rate for one or two more quarters at least. This assumes, of course, that we dont drop off the Fiscal Cliff causing massive government cuts and payroll tax increases on one extreme, or the passage of Obamas American Jobs Act, which could add massive job numbers on the other. So despite the uncertainty in Congress which darkens the overall environment, the fact remains that the labor markets seem to be both stabilizing and improving ever so slightly.
Housing, however, may be the real shining star. For nearly four years, the beleaguered housing market has been both a drag on GDP and a real source of continuing unemployment. For nearly three years, we have been looking for strong data to support the improvement of this critical sector. However slow in coming, the latest home sales numbers, prices, and permit numbers have finally been on the rise. The recent Case-Shiller index demonstrates their three indexes showing positive for the first time since 2010. Should housing growth continue, a substantial boost will be injected into the economy. The recent actions by the Fed should only help, although it will take some time before the banks are able to ratchet up the capacity to process new mortgage applications. Lest investors become too upbeat, keep in mind that the banks have been exceedingly slow to avail themselves of cheap credit over the last few years, and the concern remains that banks will sell their bad mortgages to the Fed while hoarding cash instead of lending.
Interest rates and inflation remain low. Low interest rates allow for less expensive borrowing for homeowners and businesses alike, allowing opportunities to both reduce debt and consume, and rates are still hovering at the lowest levels in a century. The downside of such low rates is felt most acutely by fixed income investors, particularly the elderly relying on income from bank account CDs, secure bonds and the like.
Inflation remains extremely low at 1.7% over the year, having ticked up a tad, thanks to rising gasoline prices and agricultural grains, the latter largely due to the drought (certainly not due to climate change according to most experts in the House of Representatives) -- which has devastated the Midwest. Although grain prices have risen dramatically, the impacts on food prices here have been so far minimal, largely due to the fact that the cost of grain represents a small component of the price of cereals, pastas and other finished food products. (Poorer third world economies will take the biggest hit due to these rising grain prices.) Moreover, oil and gas prices are still at very favorable levels, with natural gas downright cheap. Commodity prices remain neutral, still significantly lower than a few years ago. Low inflation also means that income is not being significantly eroded by rising prices.
Thats the good news. But weaknesses, in addition to the ongoing negative impacts of Europes recession and Chinas slowdown, remain real. With consumer and business sentiment low, and conflagration in Congress ever-present, a bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy is taking place. Uncertainty, a term used ad-infinitum by business groups to describe the sentiment of the domestic business community, is the rationale thats being spun to explain the lack of hiring, while squeezing the last drop of productivity from an overworked, overstressed workforce, or at least what little of it remains after outsourcing. Many feel this to be negative self-talk, a by-product of the fear generated by right wing, pro-business, anti-government instincts and parroted by the mainstream and financial media. In addition, concerned about further Congressional brinkmanship over fiscal policy that might turn the economy back to recession, the unknown impacts of impending socialist healthcare reform, and an uncertain global economy, many businesses are reluctant to throw their hats into the ring. So despite corporate cash and profits at near record levels, a pro-Wall Street (republican and democratic) Congress and President, businesses sit on the sidelines, and instead of investing are, in many cases, using that cash to donate to their candidate of choice.
Having shown a downturn in sentiment over the summer, manufacturing has made a strong comeback in September, showing a significant expansion for the first time in several months. While output deteriorated in late summer, new orders substantially increased in September, surprising many economists. While the slowing global economy is certainly asserting its impact, at the top of the list of concerns expressed by manufacturers is not the very real recession in Europe, but the deteriorating political climate. Whats also interesting is that while manufacturing output has grown 20% since 2009, manufacturing wages have grown a scant 4% during that same time. Companies are doing more with fewer employees, and paying them less. As some of the uncertainties i.e. the Fiscal Cliff, healthcare, the elections work their way through, a more objective consensus may begin to emerge. As of now, the situation remains murky. If manufacturing manages to continue expansion despite the political uncertainty and European recession, a significant increase in hiring could be in the works, and that would be extraordinarily welcome news.
Threats continue as well. According the Pew Center, over $3 trillion in unfunded pension liabilities exist mostly amongst the state and local municipal workers across America, and not including another $1 trillion in estimated unfunded healthcare costs. Coming at a time when municipalities can least afford making any payments into these funds, the actuarial assumptions based on pipe-dream investment returns of 8% and the losses sustained from 2007 through early 2009 are leaving accounts just a tad (shall we say) short. So when even normal contributions would be challenging, some municipalities are having to contribute 2 or 3 times their normal levels. The additional stress being placed on municipalities on top of drastically reduced tax revenues is extreme. Its remarkable, frankly, that far more municipalities havent already gone into bankruptcy. Many yet may, or be thrown into acute austerity and additional rounds of public layoffs.
Geopolitical events, much harder to predict, are also worthy of consideration. While Iran and a possible impending attack on their nuclear ambitions receded in likelihood over the last six months, only recently has Israel ramped up, again, its saber-rattling. Should that escalate further into an actual strike, the impacts on oil prices would be substantial, despite the fact that weve reduced our reliance on foreign oil. Syria, meanwhile, while a bit player on the world stage, could impact the system should US or international military action intercede, and escalate tensions throughout the Middle East, as well as between US and Russia, Syrias ally. Events over the last few weeks have been sobering reminders about how little is really predictable about events that can befall this area of the world.
Oil prices currently are trading roughly near where they began a year ago. Certainly, gasoline prices have crept up the last several months, but overall energy costs remain fairly stable. Importantly, however, natural gas prices, currently trading at almost 50% lower than the already low levels a year ago, and increasingly an essential source of energy for utilities and manufacturing, is a very significant positive. While an invasion of Iran or other geopolitical flare-up could see a rapid rise in oil prices, we again see these as short lived. So while this remains a threat, modest energy prices by and large remain a strength, and all of the concerns are largely old news, and baked into the market prices.
Eurozone. The biggest known threat, however, emanates from Europe. Should the Eurozone fail to come to an accord that works to stabilize Spain and Italy, and minimizes the impact of what seems now to be an all-but-inevitable Greek default and departure from the Euro, the shocks here could be very considerable. A series of major bank failures as a result of government defaults or deterioration of credit quality could initiate a domino effect of bank insolvencies that could easily spread across the Atlantic. While its not likely to lead to a replay of 2008, the damage still could be considerable, and further destabilize already fragile financial markets.
Many investors, however, have been concerned that a complete collapse of the Euro is impending and will lead to economic catastrophe. We just dont see that happening. It has become increasingly obvious that the Eurozone powers that be will continue to work to solve the complex issues as leaders and officials have made clear. Although it will take a considerable amount of time perhaps years to work through the complexity and number of the problematic issues -- governments, politics, costs, bank logistics, etc. -- the Eurozone will likely emerge strong, despite the current recession some of Europe is currently experiencing. So while problems in Europe remain a threat and will continue to be so for some time, the threat is better known, and the problems and solutions better understood by investors, central bankers, and the elected officials of the Eurozone nations.
The Fiscal Cliff. We see the Feds drawing a line in the sand as important in drawing attention in Congress and the American public to looking past a Tea Party-driven focus on dismantling government and reducing taxes, to seeking a more balanced approach to both stimulating growth and seeking long term deficit reductions. While an obstructionist House could, once again, obstruct and/or blow up budget discussions leading to another damaging credit downgrade, we see this as increasingly unlikely. Tea-Party House members gave their party a black eye after the last budget debate with the Party elders finally intervening to prevent another debacle. No doubt the House Republicans will be looking to the mid-term elections in 2014, hoping not to provide fodder for a Democratic rout. We expect, as weve seen in Europe, a dance unfolding which combines kicking the can down the road, with modest agreements which demonstrate positive progress over the next six months. So while this remains a threat, we feel it less an issue now.
The Elections and the Affordable Care Act. Some pundits have argued that an Obama reelection combined with Democratic retention of the Senate would present a threat to the economy. We disagree. Historically, not only have election year markets been positive, theyve been positive even when a Democrat is leading in reelection prospects. Moreover, while Wall Street and the business-friendly US Chamber of Commerce may see Mitt Romney as a dream candidate, its hard to imagine a President thats been more friendly to Wall Street and the business community than Mr. Obama. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geitner has had the back of Wall Street since the crisis unfolded in 2007. No threat here.
The Affordable Care Act aka Obamacare -- seen as potentially leading to the demise of the Nation and life as we know it has had little, if any negative impact, since the Supreme Court shockingly ruled in June in support of the legislation. Health care costs rose far less than usual over the past year, and while businesses are wrestling with some of the needed changes in 2014 when some of the mandates of the legislation are triggered, the impacts are being seen, ultimately, as relatively benign in 2013. While there will be winners and losers in different areas of the healthcare industry, those impacts are not seen as being extreme one way or the other. So, while this issue and particularly the uncertainty around it may have added to the roiling of markets earlier this year, the threat is effectively done and gone for the next six months or more.
The Markets Looking Ahead
Even with the continued market rally, the S&P500 is still reasonably, if not cheaply priced. While earnings growth going forward may slow somewhat, they are growing, and with both the US and the global economy growing, with major headwinds increasingly understood, we cant see why stock prices shouldnt rise over the next year. A market pull-back or even a correction triggered by some event might be expected given the run-up thus far, and should stock prices continue to move upward quickly, or sustain the current increase for several more months, this is more likely still. An invasion of Iran, massive Mideast upheaval, or European nation or bank failure could wreak havoc to stock prices and investor confidence, but we feel that as damaging as these events could be in the short term, long term economic devastation is highly unlikely.
Regular Equity investors, meanwhile, have continued to remain largely on the sidelines or in fixed income securities, not only because of the trauma of 2007-2009, but also the constant barrage of negative news from the media. However, with yields remaining puny in low-risk Treasuries and CDs (10 year Treasuries are currently yielding a miniscule 1.6%), large dividend paying companies are becoming increasingly attractive to even the more conservative investors, many in fear of outliving their assets. Moreover, even though the economy may be limping along and consumer confidence far from upbeat, stocks continue to march forward up the wall of worry as discussed earlier.
Increasingly, we expect investors to recognize this trend, which will bode even better for stock prices. And as interest rates for intermediate term and long term fixed income securities continue ticking up, and with those investors seeing their account values beginning to drop, this trend is likely to intensify, as investors seek out dividend paying equities as alternatives to bonds that might be declining in value on paper. The fact of the matter is that investors are invested at historical levels in bonds, fixed income mutual funds and ETFs, and money market funds. When those prices start to deteriorate, many of the exit doors are likely to lead to historically conservative dividend paying stocks. Moreover, with so many investors on the sidelines in money market funds and the like, when they do capitulate as the move into equities finally goes mainstream, the upward pressure on stocks could be very significant. Should a budget deal take place, housing prices continue on the upswing or other tailwinds provide a boost to investor sentiment, the rush in to equities could be swift, indeed.
As weve been indicating for some time, for Fixed Income investors, the yellow caution light is flashing brightly. We have long argued that investors in intermediate and long term fixed income securities needed to be mindful of even modest interest rate increases, as these would erode asset values. Long term treasuries, for example, have seen drops of nearly 10% from their July highs. And even high quality intermediate bonds, currently offering yields just over 3% had seen values drop 2% or more during much of that same period. While most of our investors have significant positions in fixed income investments, we diversify those positions extensively as we seek to provide income in this difficult interest environment but remain very vigilant regarding interest rate changes.
With the likelihood of massive market disruption decreasing over the last six months, most of our clients have been returned to their target portfolios. We remain reluctant, however, for all but the most risk tolerant investors or investors with very long time frames in mind, to remain overly positioned in equities. While we feel that the argument for equities is improving, and we are continuing to increase positions in those asset classes, conservative clients who are unable to comfortably sustain drops in asset values of 10% or more should remain highly diversified. As discussed at length above, market volatility can leap rapidly as computers react instantaneously and en masse to events, non-events, or worse, programming glitches. Hence: cautious optimism, with vigilance. The arguments in favor of careful asset management remain strong.
Wishing all a Wonderful, Colorful, and Happy Autumn.
In Peace,
Ron Stein, CFP
Good Harvest Financial Group


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A Beautiful Yarn Boutique
What would you like to learn? Design your own private lessons in knitting or crochet. You pick the project and/or the techniques. Register for a single hour-long lesson or save when you purchase two or more classes, which can be scheduled at mutually convenient times. Want to work on the same project with friends? Groups of up to 3 can be accommodated at the same time.
Fees: 1 class – $15; 2 classes – $27.50; 3 classes – $40
Make a pair of these wristlets in a day. They're knit flat and shaped with Shadow Wrap short rows. Choose to finish them off with either a 3-Needle Bind Off or the Kitchener Stitch; all techniques will be demonstrated.
Materials: (1) skein Fibre Company Arranmore Light (328 yards/100g) or Ewe Ewe Yarns Ewe So Sporty (145 yards/50g) or approx. 100 yards similar DK weight yarn; US 5/3.75mm needles, locking stitch markers; pattern will be provided.


text: A confidential meeting between representatives of the Chimco fertilizer producer and the Russian Gazprom company was held in Vratsa on April 26. The Russian experts are now examining the plant and in case they find its condition satisfactory, the sale of the enterprise may be initiated.By the end of 2006, the Canadian Dundee Precious Metals Inc. is going to invest USD150MN in the extraction of copper and gold from fields near Tchelopetch and Ada Tepe. The Canadians hold the majority stake in the capital of Tchelopetch Mining, the company which has signed a concession agreement for extraction of ores and minerals near Tchelopetch.The Plovdiv-based Hemus Group has invested BGN2MN in the construction of a workshop producing fruit and vegetable mash in Pazardzhik. The unit will start operations in July.Serdika Tourist EOOD acquired in a tender a holiday resthome in Kranevo which is an independent part of the Sofia-based Vodno Stopanstvo company. The purchase price of BGN370,000 is three times higher than the initially asked amount. The Varna-based Sea Group, occupied with intermediation and representation activities, won a tender for an independent part of the Vointech company. The winner offered BGN12,300 which was almost four times above the initial price. Balkancar Holding's trustee in bankruptcy Boyana Karaivanova is selling a company of the holding in Moscow. Offers for Balkancar-MS will be accepted until May 21. The initial price at which negotiations will start is USD6,400. Lukoil Neftochim ended the first quarter of 2004 at a profit of BGN1.24MN, down from the BGN13.2MN profit for the same period a year earlier. The refinery sales revenues reached BGN82.4MN.The first-quarter profit of the Dimitrovgrad-based Neochim company amounts to BGN4.73MN. A year earlier, Neochim posted a profit of BGN2.93MN. Sales revenues are up, too, and reach BGN57MN.


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Exploring Physical Geography
Edition 2nd
Publication Date 10 Feb 17
Publisher Mc GrawHill
Author(s) Reynolds, Rohli, Johnson, Waylen, Francek
OverviewStephen Reynolds, author of the highly successful Exploring Geology, brings his ground-breaking, visually spectacular approach to Exploring Physical Geography. Intended for an introductory geography course, such as Physical Geography, Reynolds Exploring Physical Geography promotes inquiry and science as an active process. It encourages student curiosity and aims to activate existing student knowledge by posing the title of every two-page spread and every subsection as a question.
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The first step is to examine the difference between science fiction and fantasy. It has been widely argued that they are one and the same. However, one could say that in science fiction, one is dealing with the realm of possibility or plausible science, things that could be possible in life as we know it. In fantasy, anything goes! What ever one can dream up, such as animals that speak English, things that we generally think of as not possible but make for excellent reading, can be considered fantasy.
There is no right or standard way to write a story. What works for one does not mean it will work for all. There are however, many pieces of good information and or guidelines that that can assist a person in their endeavors to create a time and place that transport us from our everyday life.
1.Of course you can keep it simple and start writing and see how your characters develop and many writers have created entire novels in this fashion. In a sense you are experiencing the story much like your readers in that you may not know at the time of writing which way the story may turn. The downside of this style of writing can be that you may end up writing hundreds of pages that may or may not end up in the final draft due to the fact there may not be a clear direction for your story and it can change many times over. There is absolutely nothing wrong with writing this way as all writing is a learning experience and gets better over time.
2.If you are the type of person that needs more structure, you can somewhat organize your story. It may not be as difficult as you think. You can start with;
a)Write a summary or overview about your story. When you are getting ready to write a novel you will already have an idea of what the story is about. Put it down on paper! It is important to take that step of getting it out of your head and onto paper or in your computer. This allows you to examine it from an exterior point of view at any later date. Many times when we have an idea and don't write it down we often find we can't quite remember the full details of our ideas. The overview of the story can ultimately be used as the summary to describe the contents of the novel. The wording for your summary may change over the course of your writing and this is to be expected because the story will be evolving as you go.
b)The story must have its heroes and sinister characters and naming them correctly is of importance. The names you choose for your characters should suit the story.
c)Decide what the role is of the main characters, what are they trying to accomplish, and how do the opposing forces or characters interfere with the main goal.
d)The story would not be as interesting if it is cut and dry or predictable. You may want to introduce set backs for your main character. While he is trying to do good or the right thing, he may be confronted with things gone awry or huge set backs on the main goal. This keeps the reader interested and routing for his or her success.
e)Write a possible ending for your story. You may want to write several possible endings.
f)Now that you have a full outline of the story with characters in place, you can write chapter by chapter. Feel free to make as many changes as you want to create the most impact for your story.
Whether you are writing science fiction or fantasy, we sometimes like to humanize some of the characters such as an animal that dresses or speaks like us or the alien that sympathizes with human kind. Some of the most successful novels or stories are wildly out there but still relatable.
A good way to gain experience and confidence as a writer is to enter a writing contest. Some of the better contests will be judged by experienced well known writers that often have workshops or have their own websites with great writing tips. Entering writing contests can be a great way to break into this competitive field and get oneself known.
Whatever system appeals to you, do that, and keep writing, writing and more writing!
Enjoy the journey!
Frederick Hail is passionate about writing short fiction stories and entering into writing competitions.
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Category Archive
The following is a list of all entries from the Hoarding category.
My second guest blog post with the Girl Guides of Canada. Please let me know your thoughts!
I've been a Brownie leader for nearly 10 years, and for almost every one of those 10 years, I have been "blessed" with many craft supplies. Although I've kept many (fewer recently), that doesn't make me a "hoarder" – a term that has become rather mainstream lately. With TV shows like "Hoarders" and "Hoarding: Buried Alive", people will often describe their home (or, more often than not, a friend's or family member's), trying to determine if they fall into this category.
I strongly believe that my grandmother was a hoarder (she was never diagnosed), and although my family saw some of the warning signs, we didn't realize the magnitude of the situation until she had to move to a retirement facility. It was then that we realized that she likely hadn't slept in her own bed for a couple of years. It was very difficult to come to this realization…
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Use It or Lose It
This topic may seem similar, as I posted on something along these lines last year (You've Got It, So Use It), but who doesn't like a little reminder now and then?
First, let me confess. I have a "collection" of those little floss containers you get from the dentist at your check ups. And by "collection" I mean 10. Seriously. Here's the evidence:
It's not that I don't floss, I just don't do it as often as I should. I've tried to remedy this by flossing on days with a "U" in them (Tuesday, Thursday and either Saturday or Sunday), so that if I don't do it everyday, at least I'm flossing every week. Why? Because my husband told me that the plaque that's on your teeth, and in your gums, can travel through your blood system, and build up in there. YIKES! That was enough to get me flossing more regularly…
Anyway, my point it this: I need to use this up before I purchase any more. And, if I'm not going to use it, then I can't have it cluttering up my space. If you've ever seen our bathroom, you'd understand. But it's not the size that matters, but the fact that anytime you want to get around it, you have to shuffle it around. And for what? If you'll never use it, so why not let someone else be "blessed" by it?
Lastly, if you have so much of it that even if you used "it" at every opportunity, you still wouldn't make a solid dent in it, perhaps you should split "it" and pass some of it on. Don't let it bog you down just because you think you'll use it "someday".
What do you have an overload of? Will you ever use it? Please excuse me while I get to flossing 😀
P.S. While I haven't completely depleted my body wash (please refer to above mentioned post), I'm getting near the end. Imagine that… But I haven't bought anymore all this time! Saving space AND money!
This is a fantastic post that delves into the psychology and thought process behind sorting through and purging items. The term "hoarding" has been widely cast lately, and I believe it needs to be refined for the public. More on this in the near future…
I've often wondered if I was a hoarder. I have quite a few boxes I'm hanging onto upstairs that I know I could throw away and would never miss. I mean, do you ever really go back and re-read all your class notes from graduate school? Couldn't I just find everything I ever need online today anyways?
Last summer, I spent a month at my parent's house. I stayed in my old room where the walls are still painted to my seventh grade desires: two walls teal, two walls purple. Minus the nostalgia, I often think it's time to hit it with some Behr's Cosmic Dust. But it's not my house. However, sitting in the window seat of my old room, under a few signs of rodent life, were boxes of all my memories. Every.Single.One. Boxes, upon boxes, of papers and pictures and journals and memories. You know, the…
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Educators and Learners: this is a presentation that reflects the experience of the 18 students in an AEAL class during the volunteer portion of their program of studies. This artifact is the result of a project-based learning (PBL) task conducted at the public library. We welcome your feedback!


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This bread is quite easy and very delicious. You can mix up which seeds you put in it based on preference. 7 pasture-raised Eggs 1/2 tsp xanthan gum 2 TBSP coconut oil 8 TBSP butter, melted 2 cups almond flour… Continue Reading →
These are very delicious, especially the cake portion when it's warm and fresh out of the oven! Cupcakes: 8 Squares of 90% dark chocolate Lindt 3/4 bar of Lily's Dark Chocolate (or other sugar-free chocolate bar) 3 TBSP grass-fed butter… Continue Reading →
This is probably my favorite breakfast casserole recipe to date. It was REALLY good and kept me full for hours! 1 pack of Bacon (I use Coleman's uncured) 2/3 cup of frozen chopped onions 8 oz of cream cheese 8… Continue Reading →
This can be a dessert or an adult drink. Delicious and easy! 1/4 cup Ice 1 cup Unsweetened vanilla almond Milk 4 TBSP heavy whipping cream 1 Dropper of Vanilla stevia drops 5 medium strawberries, meddled (just mush them up)… Continue Reading →
This is a favorite marinade of mine! Has some of that Asian flavor without any sugar or carbs! To make the marinade, stir all of the following together in a glass square 9×9 baking dish: 1/2 cup soy sauce 2… Continue Reading →
I think the flavors in Beef Stroganoff are fantastic. I never really knew what the purpose of the noodles were… they just get in the way of the flavor. So I made this recipe by simply omitting the noodles and… Continue Reading →
I've been trying to recreate the taste of a smores since going keto, since it was one of my favorite treats in my carb days. Nothing can really replace the marshmallow, but I think you'll enjoy this recipe regardless. This… Continue Reading →
For this plate, I used the same keto gnocchi recipe as in my previous alfredo gnocchi post here, but this time for the sauce I just melted some butter and sprinkled on some trader joe's garlic salt. Delicious!
I like this recipe because it's fairly simple – just throwing everything into one large bowl and mixing. This is a very easy cookie to make and it's chocolaty and chewy like a brownie. 2 free range eggs 1 cup… Continue Reading →
For this recipe, I just altered my Easy Eggnog recipe and adapted to turn it into a quick protein shake. Raw eggs are excellent after a workout, so this is the perfect shake to build and repair. This is enough… Continue Reading →
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We have had a great day on the road! We pulled out at 8:45 this morning. After 10.5 hours of driving, and 1.5 hours of stops, we arrived at our hotel around 9:30, north of Fayettville, North Carolina. The kids did Amazingly well, and are more than 2/3 of the way there!
Hoping for a good night's sleep and a great 300 miles on the road tomorrow.
Good night!


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Red cabbage marinated
Hello friends! Continue to prepare for the new year holidays and today I want to offer you a quick appetizer that is simply irreplaceable on the festive table. Red cabbage marinated in a festive day or a day before, will not take much time to prepare.
Products for marinated cabbage
red cabbage — 1.5 kg
the large carrot – 1 PC
garlic — 2-3 cloves
salt — 1 tbsp
Marinade 500 ml water:
sugar — 2 tbsp
whole coriander — 1 tbsp
cumin — 0.5 St. l
black pepper — 5 tablespoons
Apple cider vinegar — 150 ml
Bay leaf
Cooking cabbage marinated
I must say that this recipe is marinating can also be used for white cabbage.
Since red cabbage is coarser cabbage, chop it as finely as possible. I always took advantage of his shredding the knife sliced quickly and small.
The cabbage will pickle in an enamel pot or glass, but in any case not aluminum.
Garlic press out through the frog or grind in any way. Purified carrot grate long thin wedges, as for the carrots in Korean and mix with salt. RUB in to the juice we don't need: the marinade will do its job without it, and the cabbage stays crispy and juicy.
Make marinade.
In a pot boil water, add sugar, Bay leaf, coriander, cumin and black pepper. Boil the spices for 2-3 minutes, then pour Apple cider vinegar, bring to a boil and remove from heat.
The recipe was vegetable oil, but honestly, I don't understand its function in the marinade. Can you tell me and I will add )). In the meantime, I prefer homemade flavored sunflower oil to pour pickled cabbage just before serving, as in the recipe for sauerkraut with apples .
Pour the hot marinade over the cabbage through a sieve to filter out the spices , the flavoring option is already fulfilled. Make sure the liquid covers the cabbage or was at her level. I even added a sprig of green cilantro.
Give natural way to cool down the marinade, cover the bowl with a lid and refrigerate. After 4 hours, the pickled cabbage is ready! Marinated cabbage can be stored for a long time, but I doubt that it will be late )).
Crispy and juicy with incredible flavor and color of the cabbage is likely to attract the attention of your guests!
That quick red cabbage marinated and ready to eat will be on your Desk. Cut into thin half-rings onions and pour the marinated cabbage flavored with vegetable oil. For variety, I recommend a combination like this cabbage with thin slices of pickled cucumbers .


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STRING DUALITIESProject ID: 500308
Źródło dofinansowania:
String theory as the unifying theory of all fundamental particle interactions - a step forward in the comprehension of dualities relating different string theories
Dane projektu
Całkowity koszt:EUR 158 479
Wkład UE:EUR 158 479
Kraj koordynujący:United Kingdom
Zaproszenie do składania wniosków:FP6-2002-MOBILITY-5See other projects for this call
System finansowania:EIF - Marie Curie actions-Intra-European Fellowships
Type IIB string theory has a preservative symmetry corresponding to the reversal of the orientation of the fundamental string. Type I string theory is obtained from type IIB projecting out the states that are odd under this flip, and this operation is known as orient fold projection. The research objective is to clarify the duality that relates type he and I erotic SO (32) in ten dimensions. This duality is a strong-weak coupling duality, while tiepin possesses a non-preservative self-duality. Self-duality of IIB maps the orient fold projection to a new symmetry. Projecting out the states that are odd under this new symmetry should give a theory that describes tweak coupling the strong coupling behaviour of type I string theory. The objective of the project is thus to try to connect the duality between types I and he erotic SO (32) to the self-duality of type IIB.There are two directions in which the research can be developed. The open sector of type I string theory can be obtained performing a type I truncation of IIB in a background in which D9-brines are present. One direction is then to study what happens to this truncated action at strong coupling, and then perform a duality map. The other direction is to perform a string theory analysis, characterizing at any mass level the map that projects the states of type IIB to the changeless states of the he erotic theory. Undertaking the project could be the starting point for developing further research in other directions, in particular applying the same techniques to type HA theory, whose strong coupling limit is dual to the unknown eleven-dimensional theory called M-theory.
United Kingdom
Tel.: +44-1223330884
Faks: +44-1223766883
Adres e-mail


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Mitsubishi Outlander Teaser of the future is launchedPosted in Labels: Mitsubishi Outlander, Mitsubishi Outlander first look, Mitsubishi Outlander news, Mitsubishi Outlander Teaser
Mitsubishi ad for the Geneva Motor Show the presentation ofa VPS it's simply an arrival of the replacement of the current Outlander bornin October 2005. Here is the first image of the front (in demonstration versionat the end of article).
This new SUV will have largely guided by the concept carPX-MiEV II as we have seen in recent exhibitions, including in Tokyo last December. The VPS announces thechange of pace from the front of Mitsubishi who will lose in the future the famousgrille which gave Jetfighter look mean and sports cars of the Japanesemanufacturer. We do not know much about this new generation Outlanderparticularly in the area of the engine which may be electric, hybrid orelectric with range extender as it was exposed on the concept car in Japan.
To recap, the PX II MiEV is powered by two electric motorsof 60 kW (81 hp) powered by batteries recharged by an engine block 2.0 L 95 hp.Transmission 4-wheel drive S-AWC, 50 km in EV mode, with 800 km range extenderon and only 1.7 L/100 km. Coming in less than two months.


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The Rev. Dr. Amy Butler, Senior Minister of the Riverside Church in New York City, preaches on the most-memorized verse in the Bible, John 3:16, one that was such a familiar part of her youth and childhood she feels it deserves a closer look. In those days it was all about believing in Jesus so that when you died you could go to heaven instead of hell. Belief was part of a transaction. But these days Amy's faith is not transactional, it's transformational; it's about becoming a whole new person here and now. That kind of faith doesn't only save us, it saves the cross from becoming a cliche.
Will Willimon is a retired bishop in the United Methodist Church, a powerful preacher, and a prolific author. His most recent book is: Who Lynched Willie Earle? Preaching to Confront Racism.
Michael Curry is the Presiding Bishop of the Episcopal Church (USA), the author of Crazy Christians, and recently wowed a global crowd with his sermon at the royal wedding.
Amy Butler is the Senior Minister of the Riverside Church in New York City and a popular preacher, speaker, and writer. Her new book will be published later this year by Random House.
Brian McLaren is a speaker, an activist, and bestselling author of More Ready than you Realize, We Make the Road by Walking, and, most recently, The Great Spiritual Migration.


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Items in a complete utensil set are rather valuable. To complement plates, cups, forks, spoons, pots, and pans, knives are most likely the most applied utensils. The considerably underrated tools amongst the complete utensil set are tools. A tool set normally consists of five utensils that fit incredibly correctly in any kitchen. Two or three kitchen utensils could simply be place to use just about just about every week or two by just about just about every household. Everyone eats distinctive forms of meals routinely, so some items may very well perhaps or might possibly not be place to use significantly. Nonetheless, on a rare occasion, tools which might possibly be rarely place to use amongst the kitchen tool set or any utensil or knife set may very well pretty well be prepared for use when it comes in handy.
The kitchen tools in a tool set that conveniently come to thoughts include things like issues like the ladle, basting spoon, along with a turner. Those are the most automatic tools to believe of that come in handy for plenty of people today today. Ladle will be the tool required when serving soup. Persons who eat rice demand a spoon that's bigger than a tablespoon. The basting spoon could be the resolution to serve rice from a pan. A tool to turn burgers, meat, chicken for sandwiches, or pancakes is required for those who eat anything that requirements to be flipped. Persons who eat corn or peas would will will need other kitchen utensils in a kitchen tool set. Thankfully, the complete kitchen utensil set does incorporate such items. When serving corn or peas, slots will need to be included in the utensils to drain water swiftly, and two of the kitchen tools which have slots in this complete utensil set.
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Make us willing to be saved in thy own way,
perceiving nothing in ourselves but all in Jesus.
Help us not only to receive him but to
walk in him,
depend upon him,
commune with him,
follow him as dear children,
imperfect, but still pressing forward,
not complaining of labour, but valuing rest,
not murmuring under trials, but thankful
for our state.
And by so doing let us silence the ignorance
of foolish men.
~ From the Valley of Vision prayer book
As I read through the entire prayer this morning, I stopped and reread this last section a couple of times. It really is all about walking the talk. Every day. Before men.
It isn't just a Sunday morning thing for an hour. It's all about walking the talk. Every day. Before men.
Because others are watching you. For years. And your life as a believer in Jesus Christ will make an impact on them when you walk the talk every day before them. Your faith in Jesus Christ becomes a bright light drawing others closer as they watch and see it's real. It's not you that they see....it's Jesus Christ.
And there is nothing more praiseworthy or humbling than knowing someone has been drawn to Jesus Christ because they've watched you walk the talk every day before them.
To God be the glory for great things He has done!
Tammy ~@~
Thursday, September 2
the every day walk
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Cabo PPV TV Listing
March 26 to April 2
ESTREIAS 1 (Video-On-Demand 1)
Push (Push - Os Poderosos)
Starring Chris Evans, Dakota Fanning, Camilla Belle and Djimon Hounsou.
A shadowy government agency known as the Division is rounding up psychics for experiments designed to boost their powers and assemble the most commanding army the world has ever seen. Unfortunately, almost no one has ever survived these trials. Nick Gant (Chris Evans), a second-generation telekinetic, or "mover," has been in hiding since the Division murdered his father more than a decade earlier. He has found sanctuary in densely populated Hong Kong. Nick is forced out of hiding when Cassie Holmes (Dakota Fanning), a 13-year-old clairvoyant, or "watcher," seeks his help in locating a briefcase that she claims holds $6 million. To find it, they will also have to find Kira (Camilla Belle), an escaped "pusher" who is the only person ever to live through the Division's experiments. Pushers possess the most dangerous of all psychic powers: the ability to influence others' actions by implanting thoughts in their minds. But Cassie's presence soon attracts the attention of the Division's human bloodhounds, forcing Nick and Cassie to flee for their lives.
ESTREIAS 2 (Video-On-Demand 2)
Coco Before Chanel (Coco Avant Chanel)
Starring Audrey Tautou, Alessandro Nivola, Marie Gillain, Benoît Poelvoorde, Emmanuelle Devos and Roch Leibovici.
A little girl who is sent with her sister to an orphanage in the heart of France, who waits in vain every Sunday for her father to come for her. A cabaret performer with a weak voice who sings to an audience of drunken soldiers. A humble seamstress, who stitches hems at the back of a provincial tailor's shop. A young, skinny courtesan, to whom protector Etienne Balsan offers a safe haven, amongst the idle and decadent. A woman in love who knows she will never be anyone's wife, refusing marriage even to Boy Capel, the man who returned her love. A rebel who finds the conventions of her time oppressive, and instead dresses in her lovers' clothes. This is the story of Gabrielle "Coco" Chanel, who begins her life as a headstrong orphan, and through an extraordinary journey becomes the legendary couturier who embodied the modern woman and became a timeless symbol of success, freedom and style.
EXITOS 1 (Video-On-Demand 3)
What Just Happened (Pânico em Hollywood)
Starring Robert De Niro, Sean Penn, Catherine Keener, John Turturro, Robin Wright Penn, Stanley Tucci, Kristen Stewart and Bruce Willis.
Inspired by the personal memoirs of Hollywood producer Art Linson, Barry Levinson's fictional showbiz comedy stars Robert De Niro as a struggling movie producer who has just suffered through his second divorce, and slowly finds his soul being ground up in the machinations of the Hollywood machine. Ben (De Niro) is an aging producer whose career was already on a downward turn when his personal life went straight into the toilet. Not only is Ben juggling two ex-wives and a daughter who seems to have grown up overnight, but his colleagues seem to take pleasure in watching him suffer while he attempts to complete his latest film on an impossible schedule.
Starring John Cusack, Steve Buscemi, John Cleese, Jennifer Coolidge, Arsenio Hall, Sean Hayes, Eddie Izzard, Jay Leno, James Lipton, Molly Shannon and Christian Slater.
In a world filled with Mad Scientists and Evil Inventions, one talented evil scientist's hunch-backed lab assistant has big dreams of becoming a Mad Scientist himself and winning the annual Evil Science Fair.
EXITOS 2 (Video-On-Demand 4)
Deception (No Limite da Ilusão)
Starring Hugh Jackman, Ewan McGregor, Michelle Williams, LisaGay Hamilton, Maggie Q, Natasha Henstridge, Lynn Cohen, Danny Burstein, Malcolm Goodwin and Charlotte Rampling.
"Are you free tonight?" A simple enough question, but how Jonathan McQuarry (Ewan McGregor) answers it will change his life forever. A corporate auditor adrift in a sea of New York's power elite, Jonathan's work is his entire life. But a chance meeting with Wyatt Bose (Hugh Jackman), a charismatic corporate lawyer, introduces Jonathan to a decadent playground for Manhattan's executive upper crust. For these power brokers, whose eighteen-hour workdays leave no time for a personal life, there's 'The List' - a sex club, of sorts, where the right cell-phone number and four simple words ("Are you free tonight?") can lead to an evening's sexual fulfillment. It's a world of "intimacy without intricacy," as Jonathan's first conquest (or vice versa) explains to him, and through The List Jonathan discovers a side of himself that he didn't know existed. But an affair with a ravishing and mysterious stranger known to Jonathan only by her first initial 'S' (Michelle Williams), will expose him to yet another world he never imagined - one of betrayal, treachery and murder.
Personal Effects (Por Amor...)
Starring Ashton Kutcher, Michelle Pfeiffer and Kathy Bates.
Walter (Ashton Kutcher) is a young man trying to deal with the death of his sister. After getting a job as a wedding planner, he meets Linda (Michelle Pfeiffer), a beautiful older woman with emotional wounds that are similar to his own. As both Linda and Walter try to cope with the pain and frustration of their loss, the two bond - their shared tragedies spawning an unlikely and beautiful romance.


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Journal of Hepatology Research and Treatment is an online open access peer reviewed journal dedicated and devoted to the field of hepatology. The journal comprises the study of liver, gallbladder, biliary tree, and pancreas as well as management of their disorders.
The journal aims at publishing authentic research work that will help in expanding the scientific cognizance and to invigorate the scientific community to publish their work in the form of reviews, regular research papers, communications, and short notes. To maintain the high standards of the journal; an article undergoes peer review process by the virtue of which the article is further processed. It includes the role of various reviewers and editors along with 3 quality checks which ensures that the article maintains all the standards.
An important part of the journal is the editorial board that consists of reputed experts and specialists from the field of hepatology. Their precious presence in the journal has enabled us to establish the Journal of Hepatology Research and Treatment.
The journal acts as a platform to the researchers and scientists related to the field of Hepatology and involve the study of Hepatology, gastroenterology, biology and diseases of the liver, etc.
The journal's focus is to promote and publish authentic and quality research in all fields related to hepatology. For maintaining high standards of the journal, any article published undergoes peer review process that involves the role of various reviewers and editors. The article undergoes 3 different quality checks which ensures the quality and high standards of the article. A quality fast track review process is the special feature of our journal. We assure the publication of an article within 21 days from the date of submission. We owe our sincere thanks to our editorial board members, who are very supportive for quality review process.


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Method and System for Automatic Management of Build Servers
Publication Date: 2010-Aug-10
Publishing Venue
The IP.com Prior Art Database
A method and system for automatic management of build servers is disclosed. The method and system involves handling of the build servers by utilizing virtual machine instances.
Method and System for Automatic Management of Build Servers
Disclosed is a method and system for managing build servers by automatically checking health of the build servers based on build statistics. The method and system further enables automatic recovery of the build servers from failure by utilizing virtual machine (VM) instances.
A block diagram illustrating the disclosed system is shown in Figure.
The method involves managing build jobs running over build servers, wherein the build
jobs are configured by a user based on flavors. The flavors are based on Operating
System type and compilation tools. Further, environment variables are setup for each flavor.
In order to run the build jobs, these flavors are associated with one or more VM instances. Each VM instance incorporates a snapshot that can restore the VM instance to a pristine state which is ready to run a build job. Further, a build history is stored in a database. In addition, performance criteria for the build jobs are setup. The performance criteria corresponds to multiple aspects such as, failure of the build job,
time required for completion of the build job, expected statistics for the build job based on the build history, and so forth.
Thereafter, performance and time required by the build jobs are monitored and compared with the pre-set performance criteria. Based on the performance criteria, appropriate actions corr...


text: Meta Rate My Team PokéBase - Pokémon Q&A Login Register All Activity Questions Unanswered Tags Users Ask a Question Rules Chat User haxorus123 Wall Recent activity All questions All answers Answers by haxorus123 0 votes 26,424 views What are the advantages/disadvantages of Haxorus vs Hydregion? answered May 8, 2011 1 vote 122,168 views What is a good moveset for Galvantula? answered May 7, 2011 Useful Meta Posts How to change your username How to add a user avatar Why was my post hidden? The points system Question etiquette Flags vs Downvotes Anime FAQ


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Pasadena, Calif. — Gillian Anderson wasn't abducted by aliens, although X-Files fans might have imagined as much. Anderson hasn't been seen on the small screen since the iconic sci-fi series ended four years ago.
She has been hiding in plain sight in England, doing movies and stage work. She'll return to U.S. TV Sunday in the Masterpiece Theatre production Bleak House, an aptly named work of Charles Dickens about a never-ending inheritance battle that drags on longer than the Anna Nicole Smith case.
Bleak House is thick in plot, with a vivid sense of time and place and richly drawn characters, including Anderson's Lady Dedlock and the consummately evil lawyer Tulkinghorn. Charles Dance, who plays him, described him at a press tour session as a complete jerk (he used an earthier term) "without a redeeming feature in his makeup."
In Great Britain, eight hours were presented as a 16-installment soap opera. PBS will compact it into six episodes -- a two-hour opener and closer sandwiched around four hourlong chapters.
Coincidentally, Bleak House airs at 9 Sunday nights, the time slot Anderson used to occupy when she was playing Agent Dana Scully.
Her disappearing act was a matter of choice. "After I did nine years of a television series, I didn't want to do anything that involved going to a set and being in front of a camera," she said.
"The first thing I wanted to do when the series ended was a play. And I wanted to do a play in London. I don't know what compelled me, except I spent nine years of my childhood there and I knew London was going to have an existence in my future in some capacity."
She never imagined how big a capacity. "I fell in love with the city and fell in love with my husband." She is now essentially a full-time resident.