text:
Photos by Kiki Vassilakis
"This is Richard Lovrich. I'm going to shoot you." It was amidst the scurry and high emotion of my last day at my previous job that I was first introduced to Richard Lovrich. It's almost embarrassing to admit that, until he left a message in his deep, weathered voice on that unseasonably warm fall day,I had no idea who Richard Lovrich was. I certainly should have, as Lovrich has for years been at the center of the Capital Region's creative community, thanks not only to his role as creative director at Proctors, but because of his work as a photographer, author and poet and to the time he has spent mentoring and collaborating with artists across the region.
But I didn't know, and I was a little intimidated. On my first day on the job as editor of The Alt Richard and his Leica camera we're never very far from my face. As a nervous, flabby, balding guy I was more than a little uncomfortable. But for all my nerves Richard shot me with reverence. "His angles show that he sees you as the director, as the captain," a friend later told me. It was hard to accept. I felt very much unworthy.
Lovrich later came on as the creative director for The Alt. We spent a number of Sundays brainstorming, piecing together designs.
I soon found out about his photo project, Makers 365, a project based on his portraits of creatives who live in or have passed through the region and found themselves in front of his camera. The project proved invaluable to me as I started at The Alt; I'd spent the last seven years obsessed with politics, and while my earlier experience as a local reporter had put me in touch with major creatives, the scene had drastically changed.
I was honored when Lovrich asked The Alt to come aboard as a co-sponsor for his showing of Makers 365 at Albany Center Gallery.
Last week I sat down with Lovrich for a chat about Makers–and despite the fact that we've spent plenty of time together these days working on The Alt I found myself surprised right off the bat.
"I had the dread fear of taking pictures of people's faces," Lovrich said. "I was a professional photographer, so if you were a model or a subject, that was no problem, but the idea of going out into the wild…. I had done that a little and found it satisfying but extremely stressful."
Lovrich worked as a studio photographer in Manhattan for 15 years. "I grew up in studios, going through high school hanging out in the studio, working in the studio. I didn't cut my teeth as an art photographer."
Besides not being used to shooting regular people in their environment, Richard said, he had yet to find a camera he felt was his own. "When I looked for a camera I bounced around. And the Leica is ideal for approaching people. There's also this theater thing where I wanted a quiet camera, and the Leica is just about the quietest. And also, I guess the simplicity…. I'm not a Luddite, but I didn't need a lot of redundancy: 8-point focus, etc. I simply didn't need it. It would be nice to have for other jobs but it was not something I needed for my own art."
In March of 2016, Lovrich started shooting. He was already engaged in projects relating to the local creative economy and working with The Alpha-1 Foundation to promote the group's work raising awareness for that genetic condition, which can lead to serious lung or liver disease.
"What I did was speak to some young artists after the presentation on the creative economy who said, 'I didn't hear myself mentioned in this. I don't know if I'm in there.' I took that to heart, and that was the basis of this. So we've heard about the creatives–this is hearing from them and having them look directly into the camera."
As the project took off and Lovrich began to share images on line creatives began connecting to each other through the images on line.
"In my previous project I set out to write 1,000 short stories; that number equated to three-years' worth, and that was an immense challenge–and this was similar. In both instances, I learned an awful lot. I'll never be the same after writing those stories, and I'll never see people the same way again after working like that, in that discipline, looking at a face each day and caring, wondering, 'Do they like it? Do I like it?' It was even harder if I knew people."
Lovrich has developed more confidence shooting in the wild. "I tell people now, 'Don't worry. I touched Iman! I bit tags off of Janice Dickinson's underwear!"
But how did Lovrich deal with people like me? Slightly retiring folks, unsure if they wanted their mug blown up on a wall. "With some people it was conversational; it was showing them pictures, getting over some tenseness, telling them, 'We don't have to do anything with these pictures." After some folks saw it on my Instagram page they'd say, 'I get it now!'" There were people who wanted to be involved and reached out, and I was a little startled by that as well."
Lovrich says he "tried to keep away from cheap shots" and went out of his way not to use the most obvious image.
Heading into the exhibit's opening on June 20, Lovrich does have a few regrets. "There's a slight disappointment for me, too, that I didn't capture certain groups, certain people, but after the show opens I'll just start up again. It's that intimacy now, of being face-to-face with people, that I seem really addicted to and I don't know if that will be going away anytime soon."
Makers 360 opens at Albany Center Gallery on June 20 and runs through July 21. The opening reception will be held on June 21 from 5 to 8 PM.
The Alt and ACG will host a series of conversations with local creatives in conjunction with Makers 365. Those events will take place June 29, July 6, July 13 and July 20.


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Bulletin of the American Physical Society
54th Annual Meeting of the APS Division of Plasma Physics
Volume 57, Number 12
Monday–Friday, October 29–November 2 2012; Providence, Rhode Island
Session KI3: Laboratory Astrophysical Plasmas II
Tuesday, October 30, 2012
Room: Ballroom BC
Chair: S. Lebedev, Imperial College London
Abstract ID: BAPS.2012.DPP.KI3.1
Abstract: KI3.00001 : Supernova dynamics in the laboratory: Radiative shocks produced by ultra-high pressure implosion experiments on the National Ignition Facility*
Preview Abstract Abstract
Arthur Pak
(Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory)
Thermonuclear fuel experiments on the National Ignition Facility implode 2-mm diameter capsules with a cryogenic deuterium-tritium ice layer to 1000x liquid density and pressures exceeding 100 Gbar ($10^{11}$ atm). About 200 ps after peak compression, a spherical supernova-like radiative shock wave is observed that expands with shock velocities of $u_S$ = 300 km/s, temperatures of order 1 keV at densities of 1 g/cc resulting in a radiation strength parameter of $Q \sim u_S^5 = 10^4$. Radiation-hydrodynamic simulations indicate that the shock launched at stagnation first goes down a strong density gradient while propagating outward from the highly compressed DT fuel ($\sim$ 1000g/cc) to the ablation front ($\sim$ 1 g/cc). Similar to what happens inside a star, the shock pressure drops as it accelerates and heats. The radiative shock emission is first observed when it breaks out of the dense compressed fuel shell into the low-density inflowing plasma at the ablation front mimicking the supernova situation where the shock breaks out through the star surface into surrounding in-falling matter [1,2]; the shock is subsequently approaching the supercritical state with a strong pre-cursor followed by rapid cooling. These observations are consistent with the rapid vanishing of the radiation ring 400 ps after peak compression due to strong radiation losses and spherical expansion. The evolution and brightness of the radiative shock provides insight into the performance of these implosions that have the goal to produce burning fusion plasmas in the laboratory. By modifying the capsule ablator composition and thickness, the stagnation pressure, density gradients, shock velocity and radiative properties could be tailored to study various regimes related to supernovae radiative remnants.\\[4pt] [1] W. David Arnett, Supernovae as phenomena of high-energy astrophysics, Ann NY Aca. Science 302, 90 (1977).\\[0pt] [2] L. Ensman and A. Burrows, Shock breakout in SN1987A, ApJ 393, 742.
*Prepared by LLNL under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344 and supported by LDRD grant 11-ER-050.
To cite this abstract, use the following reference: http://meetings.aps.org/link/BAPS.2012.DPP.KI3.1
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subset: commoncrawl


text:
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Please Note: This article is written for users of the following Microsoft Word versions: 2007, 2010, and 2013. If you are using an earlier version (Word 2003 or earlier), this tip may not work for you. For a version of this tip written specifically for earlier versions of Word, click here: Numbering With Sequence Fields.
by Allen Wyatt
(last updated July 12, 2014)
Word includes a special sequencing field that you can use to do all sorts of numbering. You can even use the SEQ field to help create broken numbered lists. (A broken numbered list is one in which the flow of the list is interrupted by paragraphs of a different format.) This approach to creating numbered lists is particularly helpful and much less prone to the problems inherent in Word's built-in list numbering. For the purposes of this tip, the format of the sequence field is as follows:
{seq ident}
In this format, ident is replaced with a unique identifier for the sequence in question. Thus, you could have several sequences in a single document. For instance, one numbered sequence could use an identifier of MajorNum1, and another use an identifier of MajorNum2. The identifiers you use are entirely up to you.
You should understand that the sequence field can be much more powerful than implied in this tip. If you want additional information on how it can be used, you should refer to the on-line help for the SEQ field.
When you use the sequence field, and then combine it with the AutoText capabilities of Word, you have a powerful combination for creating numbered lists in your documents. As an example of how you can do this, follow these steps:
Figure 1. The Create New Building Block dialog box.
Now whenever you want to insert the number, type the name you defined in step 7, and then press the F3 key. The field is entered in the document. Note that the number always shows up as 1, but it is updated when you print, or when you select the entire list and press F9.
The process described in this tip works best if you have a single list in your document. Note that the sequence field starts at the beginning of the document and numbers through the whole document, based on the identifier you use. If you are going to have multiple lists in your document, then you can add a second AutoText entry to help with this. The only difference in the above steps is that the SEQ field you define would look like this:
{ seq NumList \r1 }
The addition of the \r1 switch causes Word to start the sequence counter over at 1. You would use this whenever you wanted to start a new list, and use the regular field for the rest of your numbered items. (If you want to start the list over at a number other than 1, use the starting number right after \r.)
WordTips is your source for cost-effective Microsoft Word training. (Microsoft Word is the most popular word processing software in the world.) This tip (8180) applies to Microsoft Word 2007, 2010, and 2013. You can find a version of this tip for the older menu interface of Word here: Numbering With Sequence Fields.
Do More in Less Time! Are you ready to harness the full power of Word 2013 to create professional documents? In this comprehensive guide you'll learn the skills and techniques for efficiently building the documents you need for your professional and your personal life. Check out Word 2013 In Depth today!
Fields allow you to add simple dynamic content to your document. Here's how you can find the fields when you need to know ...Discover More
You can use the FILENAME field to insert a document's filename and, optionally, the path to that filename. However, if ...Discover More
Word allows you to add automatic numbering to different elements of your document, such as to headings. If you want to ...Discover More
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2017-07-04 11:54:34
This works well unless you're trying to add these fields to text boxes. In Word 2013 it seems like it may work for a text box or two, but then decides to start the numbering over. Is there a way to get this to work with multiple text boxes?
Listnum appears to work with multiple text boxes, except you have to display a trailing period or paren that you can't get rid of.
2017-02-11 16:37:41
Is it possible to create a document with a number in the top corner that will auto number every time the document is opened, e.g the first time it is opened thw number could be 10 then the next time it is opened the number would be 11 and so on
2016-11-23 04:43:52
Morten Schmidt
Thanks for this tip, it is close to what I need in my requirement specification - but my problem is that I need the (requirement-)numbers to be allocated once a requirement is defined, and then stay with that value 'forever', and at the same time be sure to have unique (requirement-)numbers.
In fact, the number/value should be allocated automatically as the next in line 'when inserted', and then stay until it maybe is actively deleted.
It doesn't matter that all (requirement-)numbers over time will not be there, but its mandatory that every present (requirement-)number only exists once!
Is this possible?
2016-11-22 21:38:51
thank you, very useful
2016-09-23 12:09:11
Ted Duke
Being a "nit picker" myself, may I point out that, technically, what is referred to as a "bracket" is really a "brace?"
{} = Braces {UPPER CASE}
[] = Brackets [lowercase]
I don't do much of these kinds of things in Word, so perhaps this comment is not of much use to anyone. For more about keyboard's key's names:
2016-09-22 08:02:21
This tip was very helpful. Now I have been able to automatically number dozens of examples in a linguistics paper, and as I revise the paper and insert new examples between the existing examples, the numbering is automatically adjusted. Now the next step is how to use bookmarks for the references to the examples in the text of the paper. The references need to point to specific examples, and need to be automatically adjusted when the numbering of examples is adjusted. Any ideas on how to do this?
2015-12-09 15:19:23
I have been generating 150-400 page reports with multiple lists in tables. Word's auto numbering would only go so far in applying sequential numbering but then it just stops and I could not use it any more. I had to manually type in the numbered list which was quite annoying and very time consuming. Then I came across your Word Tip. Awesome! It worked. Thanks so very much.
2015-09-15 08:35:07
Cheryll P
I have multiple documents that I would like to link together, ie each document is a chapter. Each chapter has automatic numbering.
Is it possible to have each chapter automatically update if I remove a document or add in a new one?
2015-06-14 08:21:59
Hi, Please, I need to write Of.0001-FFALCON-DILC in secuence with the field SEQ How could I get this?
Thank you
2014-12-20 11:23:22
Just struggled through exactly the same issue. Copy the 1st page onto the second, right click on the each inserted number, and click update field, then select that page, copy and then paste for as many pages as you need. Select all these pages and hit F9, and as if by magic, all the number will fill in.
2014-10-23 17:12:54
Sandy Hymas
How do I specify the number I want to start my sequence (Step 4)
I want to start with 79196 not 1
2014-10-04 12:29:27
Allen W
I am trying to use mailmerge to print tickets. I tried using a column of sequential numbers on a spreadsheet and inserting that as a field into the mailmerge, but oddly, it used number 8 eight times on the first page, number 16 eight times on the second page, etc. So, I tried using a sequencing field as you describe. It worked great for the first page (numbers 1-8) but when I completed the mailmerge, it repeated numbers 1-8 on each successive sheet. What do I have to do to make this work in a mailmerge?
Got a version of Word that uses the ribbon interface (Word 2007 or later)? This site is for you! If you use an earlier version of Word, visit our WordTips site focusing on the menu interface.
FREE SERVICE: Get tips like this every week in WordTips, a free productivity newsletter. Enter your address and click "Subscribe."
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text:
Sites like Daily Kos are having a great time watching Rush Limbaugh's downward spiral and with good reason. Limbaugh was once called "the Most Dangerous Man in America". His decades long campaign of propaganda, lies, deceit and hate speech hurt Americans individually and collectively and to a lesser extent, people around the world.
Limbaugh has been as responsible as anyone for removing civility from public discourse and for building and spreading the pile of half truths, outright lies and fairy tales on which the US conservative movement is now based. So, obviously it is nice to see his ratings and career sink slowly into the abyss.
According to Media Matters:
"Three months later, Limbaugh's KEIB is a ratings disaster, coming in 37th place in the second largest radio market in America with a .5 rating share in March, the most recent month available, according to Nielsen ratings. (A ratings share represents the percent of those listening to radio in the market who are dialed into a particular station.)
How small is KEIB's audience? So small that eleven non-English radio stations have larger audiences in Los Angeles. And so small that KEIB actually trails four college-run, non-commercial stations in the market. This, for a man who makes $40 million a year to attract big radio audiences? As for KFI, the station Limbaugh left and which switched to an all-local news and talk format, its ratings remain healthy in the talker's absence. A top ten station, KFI boasts an audience six times larger than KEIB's."
Unfortunately there is little evidence that the angry white males who provided Limbaugh with his audience are any less angry. There is no indication that they have seen through the lies and bullshit and turned away from Limbaugh or that they have learned anything about politics, history, economics or science.
My fear is that Limbaugh is no longer able to provide adequate sustenance for the monster he helped to create and so it has abandoned him. Ronald Reagan, after all, would be considered a progressive liberal by today's Republicans. The Tea Partiers now consider people staunch Reagan/Bush era conservatives like Lamar Alexander, Pat Roberts, Lindsey Graham, Mitch McConnell and John McCain so 'left wing' that they should be challenged in the primaries.
Again, my fear is that Limbaugh's decline isn't a byproduct of conservative decline but of conservatives moving even farther to the right. Rush and Fox News may be on the decline but history revisionists, conspiracy theorists, criminals and hate groups all seem to be doing quite well in the modern GOP.
So, while I understand the enthusiasm over Rush's demise and enjoy watching it happen it may be a little early to break out the streamers and balloons.
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I'm taking in Anne Voskamp's 1,000 Gifts way too quickly in order to be ready for a book group on Saturday.
Last weekend we took a road trip and saw my parents and grandparents and brother, and rain, and the beginnings of a real Fall!
Today we met with a new refugee family we'll be mentoring, and they speak Malay (yay!).
This weekend my sister comes and spends her Fall break with us. (yay!)
So, since I am too busy to write a real post, I leave you with a story.
It was probably one of the worst nights of sleep in my entire life - my version of the classic American childhood experience of going to sleep in a tent in the back yard and then being freaked out and cold or hot or rained out and miserably sleepless.
The photo was taken during the still adventurous part of the night. We brought our piles of necessities down from the house, which was a spectacle in and of itself because most people that live in those honais don't own as much as we "needed" for one night. We made a fire, we cooked ramen and had fruit, we played games on our sleeping bags by candle light.
Except, as we were eating and playing games on our sleeping bags we saw roaches crawling up between the slats that make up the floor of a honai. I am not afraid of snakes or spiders or rats, but I loathe (and am actually for real allergic to) cockroaches. Despite disposing of our leftovers, the roaches were still around. Soon Linda and I were huddled on our sleeping bags, attempting to make sure no part of us was touching the floor, since a roach could be on the opposite side of each wood slat. Our brothers laughed at us and told us to calm down. We laughed nervously, continued to freak out, attempted to calm each other down, and then still continued to freak out.
When bedtime hit, the fire still kept the hut hot but there was NO way we were falling asleep exposed to the spiders, roaches, and flies that it was now clear shared the hut with us. So, initially we sweated in our sleeping bags until the fire died out and the darkness left us unable to see what might be crawling around.
I don't know how long I laid awake, but I got very little sleep and was extra relieved for morning. I'd much rather sleep outside on the ground than on the floor of an insect-infested hut! There are limits to the adventurous of this sorta-but-not-really Jungle Girl


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Guelph Bridge Club
Guelph Bridge Club is a non-profit, membership-run club serving the bridge needs of Guelph and surrounding communities.
LEARN, PLAY and ENJOY the many facets of the world's greatest card game!
We have games and lessons for players of all levels.
We provide:
Youth Bridge
For information on Youth Bridge, please click here.
North American Pairs Qualifying Games
Some of our games in June, July and August will be North American Pairs qualifying games. These games award half red/half black masterpoints. The NAP event has been a major ACBL pairs championship since 1979 and was originally known as the Grand National Pairs. This grassroots event is staged in qualifying rounds at the club, unit and district levels. It culminates in a final held in conjunction with the 2019 Spring NABC, in Memphis. The contest is run as a flighted event: Flight A (Open), Flight B (fewer than 2500 masterpoints as of the June 2018 masterpoint cycle) and Flight C (Non-Life Master with fewer than 500 masterpoints as of June 2018). The dates for the NAP qualifying games at our club are: June 4, 12 (EVE), 20, 29, July 11, 13, 23, 24 (EVE) and August 7 (EVE), 13, 17, 29. There is an extra fee of $1 for these games. To see the list of players from District 2 who have qualified for the next level, please click here.
Education Courses
To view the brochure for the Fall 2018 courses, please click here. Details of the Fall 2018 education courses are available here.
Emergency Contact Information
To provide your emergency contact information, please click here.
To read the current newsletter, please click here. To view the current newsletter as a pdf, please click here.
Friday Afternoon Open Section
The pairs open section will continue on Friday afternoon as long as there are at least 3 tables. There are no masterpoint restrictions for this section. Until the numbers are consistently over 3 tables we ask you to pre-register to play in this section either by signing at the Club or emailing Pat - email@example.com. We will hold the Friday session for an open team game as long as there are 4 pairs. Preregistration is still required.
Wednesday Afternoon 299er section
There is no longer a need to preregister for the Wednesday afternoon 299 game. We however ask that you come with a partner as we cannot guarantee a partner for the game.


text:
Tanker Market: Oil supply disruptions offer mixed outlook for tankers
Oil disruptions offer an additional parameter to the tanker market, in terms of determining supply and demand and thus freight rates. As such the current period is rather interesting. In its latest weekly report, shipbroker Gibson said that "major supply disruptions can be a frequent feature of the oil markets with the most recent examples this decade being Libya and Iran. Yet at the start of the year, global supply disruptions fell to their lowest levels since mid-2013 as Iran returned to the market. With more oil on offer, it was little surprise to see crude prices collapse to 12 year lows of $27 – $28/bbl in January. However, since then, global supply disruptions have increased once again. At the start of 2016, global supply disruptions stood at 1.9 million b/d, steadily increasing to 2.5 million b/d by April as disruptions impacted on production in Nigeria, Kuwait, Libya and Iraq. By May the situation deteriorated further with wildfires shutting in at least 1 million b/d of Canadian production, whilst Nigeria's 0.3 million b/d Qua Iboe stream went offline for a number of weeks. At the same time, concern over a deepening crisis in Venezuela added fuel to the fire. With so much uncertainty, it was little surprise to see oil prices rally to a 6 month high of $49.28/bbl earlier this week".
However, as shipbroker Gibson said, "global supply disruptions are nothing new, having averaged 2.3 million b/d since mid- 2014 when global crude prices collapsed. The world has simply become accustomed to disruptions, with alternative sources of supply acting as a buffer to volatile price increases. However, lower prices are slowly eroding these cushions. US production is falling, other Non-OPEC production pressured and signs are emerging that the crude market is starting to move closer towards equilibrium. Some analysts have even suggested that the outages experienced this month have led to a temporary stock draw, although the world remains awash with oil".
The shipbroker noted that "our report last week identified an increase in the number of VLCCs engaged in floating storage, at the same time global shore based stocks remain at near record levels. In the IEA's latest oil market report they noted that in Q1 2016, global stocks grew at the slowest pace since the end of 2014; however, growth is still growth. In the US alone, crude stocks built by 1.3 million barrels last week despite ongoing outages in Canada and falling domestic production".
Gibson said that "for the tanker market, the impact is mixed. Ongoing issues off West Africa have contributed to the recent weakness in Suezmax freight, given that production from both Qua Iboe and Forcados has been disrupted. Thus the return of these lost barrels from Nigeria should prove supportive, although the escalation of violence in the West African nation remains a major concern. Disruptions in Canada could see US and Canadian refiners source cargoes from the Middle East, West Africa and Caribbean – if the fires persist. However, in the short term refiners have plenty of options, from drawing down shore based inventories to tapping floating storage, neither of which are supportive for tankers. Tapping floating storage might cause further pain as it would release ships back to trade. Yet this may prove unlikely considering that supply disruptions are largely centered in the West, whilst nearly all floating storage is located in the East. It is therefore most likely that refiners will opt to both draw down land based stocks and add incremental seaborne imports", the shipbroker concluded.
Meanwhile, in the crude tanker market this week, in the Middle East, "the softening trend set late last week continued for VLCCs. Charterers eyed reasonably full medium term tonnage lists and trod cautiously into the new June programme to massage sentiment – and rates – lower. Currently, levels operate into the mid ws 50s to the East and to mid ws 30s to the West and there may yet be room for further deterioration. Suezmaxes started well stacked on the market shelf, and although there is now a degree of balance reforming, it will need a good dose of bargain hunting momentum to raise rates significantly from the present low ws 30 level to the West,and from the mid ws 70s to the East. Aframaxes suffered from very light enquiry so that last week's 80,000 by ws 87.5 to Singapore remained cemented, and possibility of further discounting lurks", Gibson concluded.
Author: Nikos Roussanoglou
Source: Hellenic Shipping News
Ship owners flock to modern dry bulk tonnage, as values head north
With the freight rate market for dry bulk carriers having stabilized to higher levels than the historical lows witnessed in mid-February, ship owners have increasingly turned to modern second hand tonnage. According to the latest weekly report from shipbroker Allied Shipbroking, "carrying on from the rally noted in freight rates during the second half of March, most of April and the first week of May, sentiment across the dry bulk market has improved considerably, despite the still fearful fundamentals pointing for a possible continuation of problems to be faced ahead. With prices having bottomed out in April and a considerable number of shipowners itching to get in on the Secondhand purchasing action, we quickly started to note the presence of an increasing price momentum. Up until a couple of weeks ago little "tangible" evidence of this had emerged in the form of actual transactions. However just after the Greek Easter holidays, this all started to change".
According to Mr. George Lazaridis Head of Market Research & Asset Valuations, "the majority of change seemed to be coming from the more modern units, given that they have a longer potential life span (and in turn a longer repayment period if all goes wrong) while earnings are still relatively weak and there are but a few that believe in a quick market recovery. In cases such as the much discussed M/V "ARCHIMEDES" (81K dwt, blt 2011 S. Korea) it managed to outperform younger units (vessels built 2012 and 2013) in an auction sale on the 3rd of May, achieving a price of around mid/high US$ 14's (the winning offer was reported to be just shy of SGD 20.0m) while sale of similar and younger units concluded in March and early April were seeing levels closer to US$ 12-13.75m."
Lazaridis added that "what's more astonishing about this particular case is that the vessel had originally been sold back in December 2015 (though the sale failed) at a price of US$ 14.6m. Similar cases have been noted in the Ultramax size range, with prices for a Japanese built prompt resale now valued in the region of around US$ 20.5m given the most recent sales, while a month back this figure would be closer to the region of US$ 19.0m, a US$ 1.5m increase (7.9% increase in just a few weeks). Yet even given the above, market conditions are strained. Sellers are still not in the best position under these current prevailing prices (given the fact that most of these assets were originally ordered only a few years ago for considerably higher sum of money), while things on the buying side aren't doing much better so as to support prices hikes at such a fast pace".
According to Lazaridis, "buyers are still relatively few in this market, most held back by lacking ease of access to financing while all holding themselves back after having been spooked by how quickly the freight market collapsed in the final quarter of 2015. The majority of buyers out there (as pointed out several times in the past) are mainly out there to take advantage of the asset play potential. This however is a factor highly reliant on the fact that prices remain at aggressively low levels. The recent price hikes could easily start to overturn this major buying factor and given that earnings are still underperforming, there will be little else left to keep buyers there if prices rise too fast and too far. This is one of the main reasons that it looks as though we are setting up for another "sticky point" in asset prices, taking considerably more market factors to drive asset over the "next mile" (next 7-8% increase). In the meantime, for those who can find good opportunities and have the cash and/or financing to support them, "sales" are still on for dry bulkers", he concluded.
Author: Nikos Roussanoglou
Source: Hellenic Shipping News
Dry Bulk Market: Up to 7% of shipping fleet could be scrapped by end of 2016, but only if rates start falling again
Up to 7% of the existing dry bulk fleet could be scrapped by the end of 2016, if the current pace of demolitions is retained. That's according to ship owner Norden. The company noted though that "with the current increasing spot rates, it is likely, however, that scrapping activities will ease off, and it is expected that scrapping for 2016 will end at about 5% of the fleet. World net fleet growth in 2016 is therefore still expected to be 1-3%".
Norden said that "the historically poor conditions from 2015 continued into the first quarter of 2016. The dry cargo rates fell to an all-time low in February due to the usual seasonal slowdown in both iron ore and grain volumes as well as disappointing developments in the Chinese and Indian coal imports. Towards the end of the quarter, rates improved slightly as the South American grain season started and iron ore and coal volumes recovered. In February, China reported the lowest coal import volumes since the beginning of 2011. Volumes recovered significantly in March, however, reaching a total of almost 20 million tons – a level not seen since July 2015. The improvement in March was mainly driven by an increase in power generation as well as higher consumption of coal for steel production. Meanwhile, India, which is among the biggest coal importers, continued its negative developments compared to last year. Record high stockpiles combined with high domestic coal production have lowered the demand for coal imports. Poor finances at the importing coal fired power plants also contributes to limiting imports".
According to the shipowner, "the Chinese iron ore imports have had a relatively strong start to the year due to the slowdown in the domestic extraction and higher restocking of inventories at the ports. The positive development resulted in an increase of 6.5 % over the first three months compared to same period last year. Steel production was surprisingly strong in March and reached the second highest levels recorded. This was on the back of government led infrastructure projects as well as slight improvements in the property market.
The increase in the Chinese iron ore imports continued to benefit Brazilian exports. The Brazilian exports increased by 7.5% in the first quarter compared to the first quarter last year. Likewise, Brazilian soybean exports has had a strong start to what looks like a record-breaking grain season in South America. Although China's imports of bauxite from Malaysia have decreased due to temporary mining restrictions, total bauxite imports have risen by 35% compared to Q1 2015".
In its market outlook, Norden said that "while Q1 has been historically bad, there are signs of improvement in the coming quarters as construction activity and steel production in China are showing positive signs. However, while rates are expected to be higher than during Q1, the sizeable overcapacity in the dry cargo market will likely persist throughout 2016", it concluded.
Author: Nikos Roussanoglou
Source: Hellenic Shipping News
Dry bulk FFA market: It might as well be spring…
After last week's moves upwards on capesizes, the paper market opened the week with a pause.
Volumes remain good with pockets of volatility but ultimately the paper knows physical is running the show. The fact that the April contract is pricing in only a small move up for the balance of the month suggested that caution could continue.
The physical market slowed further despite reports of charterers having to pay up for prompt positions in the Atlantic. The Pacific felt quieter too which had a negative impact on paper.
Though busy the cape market lacked impetus with rates hovering rather than flying. However by midweek the tone was firmer again with a mini bull run giving us impressive gains on most periods down the curve. The 4TC index even made it over $5,000 which in turn pushed May up to $6,400 while Q4 made it to $9,000.
Panamaxes also saw levels looking to move south in light volume as physical began to cool off and sentiment softened. But after edging lower, we saw some renewed support and sellers scaled back to suggest a more positive tone.
The positive tone persisted with T/A and F/H business underpinning the optimism. There is however still an element of caution around and as a result the carry remains rather conservative with prompts still very flat.
After starting the session with a weaker feel, supramax paper also turned it around as we saw better bids flourishing to push the market up. Index was unexciting but with more positivity around the prompt pushed up followed by Q3 – 4 and Cal 17.
The small ships continued to gather momentum as levels were bid up on Thursday, May and June rallying before offers thinned out. Another positive index – though no more than expected – saw Q3 – 4 trading to a high of $5,800.
Source: Freight Investor Services (FIS), Hellenic Shipping News
Dry Bulk Recovery at Hand?
According to Seatrade's February "Shipping Market Assessment – Forecasting for Professionals in Dry Bulk Shipping", the dry bulk market was due for an upside bounce, with smaller ships rising first and capesize ships starting to improve in April. This forecast has been right on target, both in timing and magnitude of the upturn so far in each sector. The latest condensed update shows that rates continue to maintain forecast upward momentum, with capes finally joining the party.
The global economy, and manufacturing, is presently going through a slowdown which may get worse before it improves. China's metals demand has been declining for 2 years, but production started declining sharply in 3Q15. During 4Q15, lower Chinese and Indian coal imports, slowing ex-China steelmaking raw material imports and lower overall Chinese grain imports were combined with fleet growth and faster voyage speeds. These events finally caught up with freight rates by late 2015 = very poor earnings and not enough cargo demand to support the entire fleet. The greatest impact was felt during early 2016.
After exceeding our downside target of 320-340, the BDI bottomed at 290 in mid-February, with earnings at the lowest level in 30+ years. Since then, it has risen 93% to 560. This time driven by panamaxes first, as the ECSA grain export season got underway. February is usually the worst month of each year, and perhaps, with more demolition and layups, will again be the low point in earnings for this year. Global steel production remains very weak, including China, but has recently started to improve. Australian iron ore exports to Asian customers remain strong while a considerable portion of rising Brazilian exports have been channeled through Vale's Malaysian blending terminal. Q1 cargo demand was very depressed, and led to the record low BDI. Q2 cargo demand is improving in all sizes, partially driven by a strong ECSA grain season. Somewhat improved global steel raw material demand in Q2 will also help, but nothing exciting. The fleet is growing, even with very high demolition. Idle ships have artificially reduced fleet supply, especially in capesize sector.
The next 12 months will be affected by potential changes in fleet supply caused by very significant newbuilding (NB) slippage, cancellations, demolition and actual number of ships that enter cold layup, a potentially large decline in Chinese steel exports and volatility in commodity and forex markets that can change established trading patterns. The potential fallout from La Niña and its effect on worldwide weather can alter global grain production, drive up grain trade and reduce hydro power output in China, India, Vietnam and EU that could lead to rising thermal coal imports.
Besides crude oil, large short positions were taken on metals futures during the past 2 years, and especially since last June-July, when the Chinese stock markets imploded. Metals, including aluminum, copper and nickel had record short positions by early February. At some point these shorts will need to be covered and it could cause a fairly large short-covering rally. This will drive up metals prices, similar to crude oil since January, even though actual physical demand has not improved. More market volatility !!!
The pressure on some dry bulk owners is readily apparent as they sell off 2, 3, upto 4-5 ships just to reduce high cash drain – including NB's in various stages of construction. The intensity of such "fire-sales" increased during Q1, driving prices down to near historical lows, inflation adjusted. And is providing an opportunity for owners with strong balance sheets to make some very cheap acquisitions. The key question for buyers is obviously the duration of this downturn, when cashflow on these ships will finally turn positive and if they will ever be profitable. Our new report "To Buy or Not to Buy – that is the $$$ question" analyzes this rare investment opportunity.
The basic issues that have and will impact dry bulk earnings over next 6-9 months:
1. China's end-use bulk commodity demand is slowing sooner and quicker than many had expected. Their rising exports of metals, from aluminum to steel, has caused ROW producers to cut output and is upsetting traditional trade patterns and seaborne dry cargo flows;
2. Overall global grain trade is expected to decline later this year as China reduces imports of corn and corn substitutes. Even so, during Mar-Jul, China and others will significantly increase purchases of soybeans from Brazil, and Argentina will be increasing long-haul grain and soymeal exports for the first time in 2 years. Although short term, it will cause earnings on sub-capes to continue rising during Q2. And perhaps significantly if ECSA port congestion rises more than last year … and idled ships remain idle;
3. Global thermal coal trade has been slowing for past 2 years, with China leading the decline. A hot summer, caused by La Niña, should lead to higher thermal coal import demand over the next several months, mainly by China and north Asian nations. This is a short term situation. Metcoal volumes will remain about flat at 2H15 levels due to relatively weak ex-China pig iron output;
4. Strong Chinese steel exports, at 112mt last year, reduced ROW steel output. We expect their exports will remain relatively high in 1H16, but mounting anti-dumping actions will slow their exports during 2H16. In the meantime, ROW steel output will remain lower than during 1H15. So, even with some seasonal worldwide iron ore and metcoal restocking during Q2, ROW raw material imports will remain generally subdued, at least until Q4;
The low steel product inventories held by China's mills and traders in Jan-Feb is now leading to higher Q2 steel production and will lead to rising iron ore imports. Better economic growth in China from stimulus measures is expected to gain momentum as the year progresses. If this materializes, a further pickup in iron ore imports should be expected as steel production and ore consumption rise during 2H16. So far, previous stimulus measures have had no effect in stopping the down turn in Chinese steel consumption because building construction and FAI continues to decline faster than any benefits gained from stimulus;
Rising Australian iron ore exports to China plus rising Vale exports to Asia via its Teluk Rubiah terminal will continue to increase polarization of capesize iron ore trades within Asia this year. Remainder for subscribers;
5. The dry bulk fleet increased about 100m dwt from end 2012 until end 2015. Including an estimated 1% decline last year, cargo volume grew only 340mt during this period. Cargo demand should have increased 620mt during 2013-15 to maintain balanced supply and demand equilibrium; however, using our metrics, fleet growth exceeded cargo demand growth by 2:1. The dry bulk fleet will increase 10-15m dwt this year. Unfortunately, we project another year of declining cargo volumes. Consequently, while we expect an increase in dry bulk trade and vessel earnings during Q2, this will be a short term situation partly caused by idle tonnage and should not yet be taken as a sign of hope;
6. Some owners that have NB's under construction now lack enough cash to make scheduled payments to shipyards. Meanwhile banks are exiting the dry bulk lending business … again. If many NB orders are postponed or simply cancelled partway through the building phase, NB deliveries this year may not be much more than demolition;
Problem: Global dry cargo demand has not only slowed faster than many imagined possible, it has, as forecast, turned negative. The fleet, though growth is slowing, continues to expand. Earnings collapsed during Dec-Feb, with many routes showing negative TCE. This imbalance will return later this year, after a seasonal Q2 increase in cargo demand.
Solution: The only short term way out of this dilemma is cold layup of modern tonnage and continued very heavy demolition of older ships. Considering that more container ships, tankers and OSV's will be competing for beach front property in 2H16, there is a physical limit of 40-45m dwt of dry bulk ships that can be scrapped this year. This means that 35-40m dwt of layups will be required by year end so that earnings on the remaining actively trading fleet can return back up to reasonable levels and the BDI to about 1000. Like chartering pools, a "layup pool" would reduce expenses for participants!!!
Capes: The short term seasonal rise in Q2 earnings that we forecast has arrived. But even with the large number of idle capes and high demolition, the overall outlook for capes after this upswing remains poor for the remainder of the year.
Panamax: The recent improvement in grain exports from ECSA has seen panamax rates for ECSA-Asia reach US$8250 daily + US$300,000. While these rates are still awful, it is a great improvement from Jan-Feb. After a short term correction in the next week, we expect rates will continue to slowly increase through May as more cargoes become available and congestion rises. 2H16 will be another pressure point for panamax owners as ECSA demand slows.
Handymax: Ultramax NB deliveries this year will not only impact on existing oversupply of tonnage in the handymax sector, but will also cut into panamax demand as they increasingly compete for many of the same cargoes – as we forecast in our Ultramax Investment Analysis "Taking it to the Max". Eventually ECSA grain exports will decline and during 2H16 some owners will need to make the difficult decision concerning cold layup. Panamax owners will face this same dilemma.
Handysize: Minor bulk trades, a mainstay for handysize sector, have held up reasonably well during the recent downturn. A decline in Chinese steel exports later this year will negatively impact on Pacific handysize and handymax demand. Remainder for subscribers.
General: While this year will remain very difficult, for those owners that can weather the storm, the upside should be quite profitable, though we expect the wait will be longer than many desire.
In the mid-1970's, the tanker market was so poor that some owners took delivery of NB VLCC's from Japan and ballasted them straight to scrap yards in India. These ships never carried a cargo. We don't expect this scenario for dry bulk during this down cycle, but we do expect that the age of bulker demolition will slowly but surely get younger as older tonnage is scrapped away.
With some improvement in global steel prices and output combined with global raw material restocking in Q2, the BCI should reach our target of 850-950 by late May. We expect this will be a short term improvement, unless there are far more laidup capes than we estimate, Remainder for subscribers. Rising capesize rates will provide owners of all sizes with a good reason to improve their outlook, and therefore, sentiment.
Obviously the issue will be idled capes that start trading again when earnings improve, thus capping any recovery in rates. Remainder for subscribers.
Rising sub-cape rates in the Atlantic should also help boost sentiment among owners of all ship sizes by late April, which in itself will lead owners to raise their rates. If ECSA grain exports remain strong through June-July, and Asian coal imports increase on hot La Niña summer demand, the BPI should reach levels of 750-800 and the BSI to 550-600. This will need ECSA grain/sugar exports to rise – remainder for subscribers. The main push for ECSA soybean and soymeal exports will only last 4-6 months.
Handysize rates will see the least overall benefit from increased Q2 cargo volumes. Rates in the Atlantic have increased due to ECSA grain and seasonal fertilizer and steel shipments. But as forecast, the Pacific has not seen the same improvement due to, remainder for subscribers. Overall, we expect the BHSI will reach 300-325 during May, mainly driven by a stronger Atlantic market.
The BDI is expected to trade in a range of 300 to 500-550 this year with seasonal spikes taking it to 600-700. As rates rise we expect idled tonnage to start trading again during April. If this happens, and it surely will, rates in all sizes will reach a peak below our targets and drop again.
Persistently low bunker prices, freight rates and commodity prices should assist some commodity exporters to access new markets. This has been slow to happen, but when it does, it will lead to a return of some longer haul trades not seen for many years and partially absorb excess fleet supply going forward.
At the moment sentiment is very pessimistic. Some catalyst is required to turn it positive. Perhaps stronger grain and iron ore demand from April will help. An improvement in sentiment can raise earnings US$1000-2000 daily without any increase in cargo demand. Perhaps the year will end with better earnings than when it started.
At the end of the day, we expect earnings will try to retest the low point of February sometime later this year. But before then, we expect a continuation of present rise in earnings to, remainder for subscribers
Everyone is presently focused on the dire straits of the dry bulk market, the cash burn everywhere and whether this situation will last 12, 18, 24 months or even longer. We can't disagree with the negatives. However, shipping markets have a long history of surprising everyone and moving 100% in the opposite direction than predicted. We are trying desperately to find that surprise.
Source: Seatrade (Research) Ltd, Hellenic Shipping News
Dry bulkers' prices could be heading upwards as buyers' appetite increases
Investment sentiment is beginning to trend upwards in the market for second hand dry bulk carriers. According to the latest weekly report from shipbroker Allied Shipbroking, "mixed messages coming out of the secondhand dry bulk market this past week, with buyers and sellers seemingly split into two distinct camps, as the freight market gains momentum though still lacks to reach freight levels that can be considered long-term sustainable against the average OPEX levels noted in the market. On the back of all this, rumors had started to circulate that we had begun to see deals being concluded at slightly firmer prices compared to similar tonnage concluded a few weeks prior".
According to Mr. George Lazaridis, Allied's Head of Market Research & Asset Valuations, "the truth is that there has been increased resistance noted amongst sellers these past couple of weeks, while some buyers are expressing the opinion that the market is starting to turn, something that can to some extent be reflected by the fact that there has been a considerably increase in the number of active buyers taking on vessel inspections, a fact that on its own could drive prices up once again as competition amongst them heightens. Expectations have long been that we would see a recovery in secondhand asset prices long before earnings reach any sense of "lucrative". This has mainly been in part due to the fact that given prices have reached well below anything seen during the past 25 years or more, there have been many in angst to take up buying options, feeling that there is a significant potential in asset price gains to be made once the market rebalances. The buy low – sell high strategy has always been a major part of the strategy composed by most Greek buyers as well as prominent shipowners around the world. As such there have been a growing number of suiters waiting in the background hoping to strike at the point where they believe would be the absolute bottoming of the market".
Allied's analyst also noted that "this distressed asset purchasing strategy has occurred several times in the past, sometimes to disappointing result (as an example one may look at the buying spree that took place during 2013), with even prominent distressed debt investors misjudging the downturn and as a consequence acting on prices which would later prove to be at considerable underestimates as to how low freight rates and prices could go. Sure it seems now as if prices and rates have been squeezed to their lowest if not fairly close to their lowest possible levels and even so, the given the past mismatched timing and more dire freight market conditions has led most buyers to take a more cautionary view up until now. It does feel however that we may well be close to the turning point in buyers sentiment, while it will only take a few in number to hastily pull the trigger in outbidding their competition with considerable premiums on last done, to eventual drive the rest of the buyers currently in the market into a buying frenzy and driving a rally (even a small one) out of their fear that they may have "missed the market buying opportunity" and have been left behind".
According to Lazaridis, "there are other factors as well that will surely play their role during the current market. Recent trends in FOREX movements have supported the resistance provided by sellers at these price levels, while given the fact that earnings have shown a fairly good improvement over the past couple of weeks most sellers will be entering any negotiation with a completely different sentiment as to what their counterparts had done a month back. As a final note, it will be interesting to see if this upward pressure materialises in full and if it does, how well it will be able to feed a positive upward momentum under low freight market conditions and more specifically during courses in the year which are typically seasonal lows in the freight market, he concluded.
Author: Nikos Roussanoglou
Source: Hellenic Shipping News
Dry bulk recovery will need demand growth to outpace supply
The reversal of the current balance between demand and supply will be the key for a shift of fortunes in the dry bulk shipping markets. It will take a significant change in the current equilibrium, in order for dry bulkers to return to profitability. In its latest weekly report, shipbroker Intermodal noted that "bulk carrier values are at historical low levels, therefore, painfully for many owners, we have replied to the question how deep this crisis is. It can't go much deeper. The question now is how long this crisis will be and when should owners expect the bulk carriers to become profitable again and their assets to regain their value (or part thereof)".
According to Mr. Theodore Ntalakos, Newbuilding / SnP Broker, "the answer to that question is 'as soon as the demand for seaborne trade will consistently outpace the supply of vessels'. According to IMF data in 2015, global economic activity remained subdued. Growth in emerging market and developing economies (accounting for over 70 percent of global growth, and the main drivers of dry bulk shipping) declined for the fifth consecutive year, while a modest recovery continued in advanced economies. On top of that, the fleet has grown too much over the last decade and we need to see the fleet contract in order to meet the ailing demand growth", Ntalakos noted.
He added that "looking at some data on the ship supply side, we can see that year-to-date 17.82mil tons of dwt have been delivered against 14.48mil tons of deadweight that have sent for demolition. In other words there have been fifty more deliveries than demolitions, these are mainly in the Handysize and Supramax/Ultramax segments. On paper, the fleet is still growing and the weak demand is bringing the utilization rate lower and lower. In reality, although this is temporary, the fleet has contracted since many of the new deliveries haven't started trading yet and a number of a few hundreds of ships have been laid up".
Ntalakos also noted that "another fact that we derive from the fleet data is how many vessels that were originally contracted for delivery in 2015 have actually been delivered and how many contracted for 2016 have been postponed to be delivered in 2017 and 2018. In January 2015 the orderbook stood at 1000 bulk carriers for delivery during 2015 whilst 617 ships have been actually delivered; an almost 40percent rate of slippage. That was obviously not enough to balance the market since the fleet grew by 2.3percent whereas the seaborne trade growth was negative. In January 2016, the orderbook for 2016 stood also at about 1000 vessels (including a number of vessels postponed from 2015) whilst today it's about 700 vessels with only 211 deliveries so far; the difference being vessels pushed back in 2017 or 2018 where the respective orderbooks have increased accordingly, about 300 vessels".
He concluded by noting that "looking forward, according to IMF, growth in emerging market and developing economies is projected to increase from 4 percent in 2015 — the lowest since the 2008–09 financial crisis—to 4.3 and 4.7 percent in 2016 and 2017, respectively. This means that demand will pick up over the next two years and if the supply keeps on its rationalization consistently, the answer to the "how long?" question could well be "earlier than the consensus".
Meanwhile, in the demolition front this week, Intermodal said that "any excitement missing on the newbuilding front, the demolition market is definitely making up for. As prices continued climbing last week in the Indian subcontinent, sentiment started firming considerably, with buyers boosting competition and consequently prices even more. It is no wonder that activity levels also hit the roof, recording the best week in terms of dwt amount being reported sold for scrap since the beginning of the year. As far as bulkers alone, more than 1.5million dwt headed for scrap last week, with the Capesize segment getting the lion's share. Owner's of vessels of the worst hit dry bulk size so far, have certainly took advantage of firming demo prices. To put things into perspective, a Capesize owner can make $1.1-1.2mil more by selling a Cape for demo today compared to six weeks ago. Prices this week for wet tonnage were at around 150-290 $/ldt and dry units received about 130-280 $/ldt".
Author: Nikos Roussanoglou
Source: Hellenic Shipping News
Shipping's $12 Billion Iceberg: Why the Baltic Dry's gain is bad news for shipping
Here's reason to hope that spring has arrived for the global sea freight industry: The Baltic Dry Index, a measure of shipping costs, is up 62 percent from its record-low reading of 290 on Feb. 11, and just two points below its year-high of 473 on Jan. 4.
That sounds like good news until you consider how far the index has fallen: The benchmark averaged 1,100 in the five years through 2015, and 4,406 in the five years before that.
Still, the improvement's a sign that the demand side of the dry bulk shipping industry may be past its nadir. China's Lunar New Year is always a weak period for the commodities carried on such ships, including iron ore, coal, and grains.
In four out of the past five years, February was the weakest month for Chinese iron ore imports, a trade that increasingly dominates the sector. Even at a time when China's economy is looking frailer, sparks in the country's industrial machine carry enough of a kick to keep the boats afloat.
If shipping only had a demand side, this would be cause for celebration. Unfortunately, there's a supply side too — and it's a horror show. Thanks to the ongoing need to replace aging ships and the long tail of orders placed in more profitable times, the world's dry bulk shipping fleet is still growing despite losses that should be causing shipowners to throttle back.
About 2.8 million deadweight tons have been added to the fleet since December alone — equivalent to about one new Capesize bulk carrier every five days. Thanks to those super low iron ore prices, scrap is cheap, making it less attractive to clear the oversupply by demolishing ships. About 163 dry bulkers have been taken to the scrap yard so far this year, according to IHS Global, but there are still 9,484 in service.
While current-quarter rental rates for Capesize vessels are jumping with the Baltic Dry — they rose 24 percent last week alone — the latest price of $6,050 a day is more than a thousand dollars short of typical operating costs. As Bloomberg Intelligence's Lee Klaskow noted, dry-bulk carriers burned through $12 billion of cash during January and February, and removing all the excess capacity in the market could take two-and-a-half years.
Against that backdrop, better rates are just prolonging the pain. Instead of sinking outright, the industry's excess supply retains just enough buoyancy to cause a shipping hazard.
Source: Bloomberg, Hellenic Shipping News
Tankers: Asian VLCC freight rate drops 39% on week on muted demand
Worldscale rates on key Asian Very Large Crude Carriers routes fell sharply this week due to the easing of delays at China's oil receiving ports coupled with charterers resorting to the strategy of drip feeding the market with cargoes, said sources Thursday.
Rates on the key VLCC Persian Gulf-to-Japan route fell 39 Worldscale points week on week to w61 basis 265,000 mt Thursday.
"The market has moved back after the abnormally high rates [for this season]. Spring is the maintenance season for Asian refineries so demand should not be strong," said a North Asia-based charterer.
It was a roller-coaster VLCC market this month with the key PG-Japan rate rising from the year's low of w50.5 at the start of the month to w102 in mid-March due to firm demand for cargoes loading in late March and tight supply from various port delays.
The last decade of March saw an influx of 55 VLCC cargoes, while the typical number is around 40 cargoes for the last decade of each month.
Sources said that for VLCC cargoes loading after April 5, vessel availability was no longer tight with port delays in China falling to five or six days from a waiting period of two weeks.
Demand for vessels has also returned to the typical levels with 38 cargoes fixed for the first decade of April.
The lowest fixture rate seen this week was S-Oil having placed the Kalymnos on subjects for a Ras Tanura-Onsan voyage, loading April 12-14, at w57 basis 280,000 mt. Sources said this was a discounted rate as the Kalymnos was a 2000-built vessel.
Market sources said rates were expected to bottom out as levels approached the low of the year — w50.5 — last seen on March 3, showed Platts data.
"The market is approaching the bottom, [competitive] owners are disappearing and the available ships on the list are mainly handled by strong owners. However I don't believe there is any rebound [as the fundamental supply is more than demand]," said a South Korea-based charterer.
Charterers were expected to "cherry pick" re-let vessels and hold back until next week to charter for the remaining cargoes loading in the second decade of April, said a broker.
Source: Platts, Hellenic Shipping News


text:
Dec 56
four of us started for the sad
dle train that goes out at 2 p.
m. din for two 2$ & ride
to Marysville 20$ I & John
We 3 We are at the Columbus
house at strawberry vally
cold last kt. the trail is
verry slipry, supper & lodging
3$.. We are of at 1/2 past
4 in the morning on the mu
les took Breckfast at N.y.
house cost 2$ then got in
the stage for Mville the
snow is all off the ground
here arrivd in M ville before kt.
Th 4 supper & Beckfast for I
& John 2$ lodging free as
we slepd in the stable on
hay, we walked out to H.P.
in time for dinner &c. alls
well & has 6 teams ploughing.
Dec 56
Fr 5 I pd 1/4$ ferriage on yester
day I sent verbal word
by a teamster to Bub to co
me down & see me & put in
my time running hares &c.
Sat 6 We are walking about
on the ranches & taking ease
Su 7 I am really at a loss to kn
ow how I spent the day
Mo 8 I was at work making the
Grind stone round
again in the after noon
Bub came but did not br
ring me any money not as I ex
Tu 9 we went up to the upper
ranch about noon Bub
left us for home & is to send
me money on saturday next
if he can get it —
We 10 raind last kt & to day so
that all hands knock off
from work


text:
Mr. Blurrycam is at it again. This time around it's the rumored "superphone" from HTC, which the company has hinted at in the past, and is rumored to see the light of day later this year. The phone you see here is supposedly that phone, called the A9 or Aero, depending on who you ask.
The images are pretty low quality, so there aren't a lot of details to really pick apart here. The front of the handset, viewed on the right, seems to show off 2.5D curved glass edges, which is an interesting addition. On the back, we can see how the A9/Aero compares to Apple's iPhone 6, and the similarities are pretty obvious. HTC has decided to apparently move the camera above the antenna band, though, unlike the One M9 where it rests below the line.
The camera housing is also round in this model, rather than square, as it was on the One M9.
As far as specifications go, the rumor mill suggests the A9/Aero will feature a 5.2-inch Quad HD display, with 4GB of RAM and a 10-core MediaTek Xelio X20 processor under the hood. The battery is said to measure in at 3500mAh. Unfortunately, it's unknown just how many of these details are going to be in the final design, or if the final model will ever be released.
What do you think of the A9?


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Question & Answer
Answer for this queation
which one should i buy- XUV500 w8 4x4 or w8 4x2???? is 4x4 really wrth sm offroadin or just an added oregano to spice up the already-hot w8 4x2????
1 Answer
Asked By Arsalan Riyaz
Thursday, October 27, 2011
If you like to drive fast than must go with Mahindra XUV 4X4 otherwise 4X2 is well.
Answer - 1 out of 1
Answered By Anirudh Sinha
Monday, October 31, 2011


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Melbourne University, Department of Computer Science and Software Engineering
433-643 IT Project Management, subject Lecturer
Melbourne University first engaged Core Consulting Group in 2007 to run the semester 1 "IT Project Management" subject as part of their Masters level postgraduate studies. The decision to find an external lecturer was taken after a poor feedback result in the previous year, mainly due to department lecturers not having the necessary experience or passion in Project Management.
CCG, through the efforts of Martin Vaughan, redesigned the lecture material, assignments and workshops, building in practical sessions, role plays and guest lecturers. With extensive use of MS Project, the 65 students ran through a full project lifecycle, working in groups to apply the skills learnt in workshops and lectures. Feedback from students was very positive and the student results were very good.
It was the first time the department had trialled an external lecturer and Melbourne University was very happy with the result. Both CCG and Melbourne University valued the industry collaboration and in 2008 CCG was once again engaged for the subject.


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Put your hands up in the air and prepare yourself for unique and incredible Fatboy Slim experience! Dance music legend Norman Cook is set to rock the legendary Dance Arena with his unique blend of electro, hip-hop, funk and big beats ready to work the crowd into a frenzy. Imagine 20,000 people jumping in unison as the suns rises over the fortress walls – this will be an experience no party could do without!
A master of reinvention, Norman Cook aka Fatboy Slim is named on Q magazine's list of "50 Bands to See Before You Die" and how right they are. Collaboration with likes of Madonna, U2 and Beastie Boys and mega parties in Brighton beach and Rio De Janeiro in front of 250,000 people cemented his superstar status.
Let's get in the festival mood with 'Rockafeller Skank' single, taken from the 1998 album 'You've Come a Long Way, Baby' and get ready for Fatboy Slim at this years EXIT Festival, the greatest summer adventure which serves up five days of music, entertainment and adventure from 10th – 14th July.
ANNOUNCED ACTS SO FAR FOR THE 14TH EDITION OF EXIT FESTIVAL INCLUDE: ATOMS FOR PEACE, SNOOP DOGG AKA SNOOP LION, BLOC PARTY, FATBOY SLIM, DUBFIRE, SETH TROXLER, DJ FRESH LIVE, APOLLONIA, BROOKES BROTHERS, DUB PHIZIX & STRATEGY, FRICTION & LINGUISTIC, INSPECTOR DUBPLATE, MATADOR LIVE, PAN-POT, SKISM, SUBB AN & ADAM SHELTON, THE PROTOTYPES, DENIZ KURTEL and many many more to be announced incoming weeks!
YOU ARE EXIT! Competition
Express yourself and take part in the making of another unforgettable experience at EXIT Festival! All fans are invited to present their ideas in different sections of the competition, appropriately named My Stage@EXIT, Art@EXIT, Fun@EXIT, EXIT ADventure, My Design@EXIT and My Idea@EXIT. Everybody can be in with a chance of winning amazing prizes and realizing their project on the festival grounds. Running from 25th March until 25th April 2013 the competition will operate primarily as a web orientated platform and is open to all EXIT festival fans both amatuer and professIonal. Get involved now!
By applying for My Stage@EXIT you get the chance to improve some of the existing stages or even create a concept for a brand new one! Enter Art@EXIT and express yourself by giving us your artistic vision of the Petrovaradin fortress and festival grounds. To improve the fun factor at EXIT enter Fun@EXIT and if you are interested in the branding, marketing and visual identity of EXIT enter EXIT ADventure and get the unique chance to design a brand new line of T shirts, souvenirs, flags and all the other little things within My Design@EXIT. If you have any other amazing ideas you can submit them to My Idea@EXIT.
It's easy to enter – visit www.exitfest.org/opensource and get all the necessary information about the competition and prizes.
EXIT aspires to become much more than just an ordinary music festival. By sending us your ideas you are helping create unique carnival experience that cannot be lived anywhere else. Join creative people in the making of lifetime memories and meet new friends in the process of shaping the future of one of the most unique festivals in world. Get involved, stand proud and say: "I am EXIT!"


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Things continue moving fast in AI, and the need to regenerate in the Revit API remains unchanged
– AI News
– Subtransaction Requires Regeneration...
Read more →
Posted on June 01, 2017 at 11:00 in AI, Deep Learning, News, Regen | Permalink
0 Comments
akn_include, Jeremy Tammik, Revit API
I am back from my short vacation and raring to go again.
I checked in to the Revit API discussion forum today, of course.
I am much more interested in implementing a question answering system or QAS for the Revit API, though.
Now I finally had a chat with a real human being who put me on the right track to getting started for real
– The Revit API question answering system Q4R4
– Three steps towards implementing a QAS
– Obsolete pre-Sacha notes...
Read more →
Posted on March 13, 2017 at 11:00 in AI, Deep Learning, Q4R4 | Permalink
0 Comments
The Forge DevCon developer conference has been happily united with Autodesk University, text note rotation is easy, and I continued my deep learning exploration for implementing a Revit API question answering system
– Forge DevCon at AU
– Setting TextNote rotation
– TensorFlow and Keras
– Updating restricted Python packages
– Rules of machine learning...
Read more →
Posted on January 19, 2017 at 11:00 in AI, AU, Deep Learning, Element Creation, Forge, Installation, Mac, News, Python, Security | Permalink
0 Comments
Today, I highlight yet another interesting Revit API discussion forum thread and list my ongoing research links on implementing a Revit API question answering system
– Creating vertical dimensioning
– Revit API QAS research continued
– QnA Maker
– First steps with DeepDive
– YodaQA, DL-Learner and OWL
– My current open questions...
Read more →
Posted on January 17, 2017 at 11:00 in AI, Deep Learning, Element Creation | Permalink
0 Comments
I have probably asked developers for reproducible cases a couple of thousand times by now.
Let's discuss that and also return to the topic of how to research a Revit API problem in general.
Finally, I'll point out a Revit 2017 API MEP electrical feature.
Oh, and I continued my research into deep learning for a Revit API question answering system
– Creating a reproducible case may well solve the issue at hand
– How to research to find a Revit API solution
– Access to cable tray and conduit settings
– Getting started implementing a question answering system
– First impression from IBM Bluemix
– Open source QAS options
– Building a Revit API ontology...
Read more →
Posted on January 12, 2017 at 11:00 in 2017, AI, Deep Learning, Docs, Getting Started, Open Source, Philosophy, RME, SDK Samples, Settings | Permalink
0 Comments
I took a first look at deep learning for question answering systems. Before that, I share some news on AU in Europe, thoughts on UI and innovation, and point out a useful Revit API feature for converting a Hermite spline to Bezier
– Autodesk University in London
– Rules of thumb for change agents
– Invisible user interfaces
– Conclusions from lexical analysis of top news stories
– Converting a Revit Hermite spline to Bezier or NURBS
– Lots of literature on deep learning...
Read more →
Posted on January 11, 2017 at 11:00 in AI, AU, Deep Learning, Geometry, News, Philosophy | Permalink
0 Comments
– Topics
– Index
– Source
The Building Coder


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The Ultimate in Marine LED Lighting - The Rigid Industries M-Series, like our iconic E-Series, sets the bar for the marine LED lighting industry through continuing advances in technology and superior engineering. Available in a wide range of lengths and configurations, our flagship is the light bar of choice for everything from professional fishing boats to ski boats to commercial vessels. These lights are also commonly used on snow plows and other vehicles that are exposed to road salt. The M-Series light bar is designed to project light at extreme distances while consuming very little power. It features an extruded aluminum housing and polycarbonate lens that is sealed against the elements for years of trouble-free operation. Spreader Light - Bright lights that are designed to cover a wide area. Used on many types of marine applications from Sail boat masts and off shore fishing boat towers to light up the fishing area or deck. Power boats, fishing boats and other boating platforms also use spreader lights are used to light up decks, underneath gunnels and anywhere you need to light up a large area. Similar to the power of a flood light, the spreader lights provide more of a �cloud� of light to help give you more coverage using less power.
Rigid Industries started in the garage of the CEO Jason Christiansen. That was back in 2010 and now the company has over 200 employees. Rigid Industries has an in-house customer service department, an in house warranty department and all their products are developed and fabricated in-house. Rigid Industries strives to be an innovator in forward projection lighting. The company pushes the envelope on new technologies when focusing on serving its off-road clients or its government clients like military and fire and rescue or its boating and fishing clients. Along with innovation Rigid Industries focuses on quality. The company spends a lot of time on quality control. They test the products thoroughly so you can go out into the dark with peace of mind. Shop Rigid Industries Now


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For the last 2,000 years, paper has been a significant source for collecting and distributing an exponential amount of information. You either produced documents yourself or read others that were distributed using that age-old form. Although paper won't be disappearing anytime soon, faster and more efficient methods for the distribution of information via the World Wide Web have established themselves firmly in our everyday lives. These methods include Hypertext Markup Language (HTML) and Portable Document Format (PDF) by Adobe.
The appeal of both HTML and PDF is the ability to distribute information electronically to any computer host, regardless of hardware or software platform. This ability makes that information more accessible than ever before. Information receivers can decide for themselves whether to print that information on paper or not.
FrameMaker provides the ability to take documents that you might have originally planned for print, and convert them to a hypermedia format, such as HTML or PDF.
In this chapter, you learn what FrameMaker tools are available for converting FrameMaker documents to either PDF or HTML. To take advantage of these features, you should already be familiar with Adobe PDF, HTML, CSS, and various graphic formats, such as GIF, JPEG, and PNG.


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Sold out.
#1273 This tasty spice is as welcome in the cup as in a curry. Add to your favorite hearty black tea along with milk for your own version of masala chai. Ginger, cinnamon, cardamom, cloves, pepper, and nutmeg.
Preparation: According to taste, add a good pinch of the masala mixture to a cupful of strong black tea (e.g., No. 105, 125, 755, 760). Stir well and add whole milk. Also good with condensed milk.


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SHELTON, Wash. — Two people were found dead Tuesday at a home near Shelton, the Mason County Sheriff's Office said, and detectives are investigating it as a double homicide.
Investigators said they have a "person of interest" in the case, but offered no other details.
Tara M. Abernathy, 32, and Kenneth E. Koonrad, 34, were found dead inside their home Tuesday. The sheriff's office said a co-worker of one of the victims asked police to do a welfare check at the couple's duplex on Aloha Lane near Shelton Tuesday morning.
Neighbors said they heard multiple gunshots early Tuesday morning.
"This morning my mom heard like six gunshots and we didn't think anything of it," said neighbor Joseph Parsons. His mother added that she thought it was fireworks.
The sheriff's office says detectives are investigating along with the Washington State Patrol.


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baby won't look left!(18 Posts)
Just that really - My 8 week old baby won't look left!
She has a clear aversion to it. She gets upset if I try to (gently) turn it.She always lies with her head turned to the right. She has good head control up when upright, only looks right, or occasionally straight ahead. She struggles to follow a finger or face because of it.
Is it normal to have such a strong preference to one side?
Could be Duane's syndrome. It's more common in girls than boys. My son has it. We noticed at a couple of months but he wasn't diagnosed until about 18 months. Do some research online to get an idea of the symptoms and be prepared for your GP not to have heard of it - ours hadn't.
She could have torticolis (sp?). My friend's son had it, he had physio for it. They think he had settled into an odd position in the womb. You might have to push for a paeds referral.
Try an appointment with a chiropractor. My DS came out with his fist by his cheek, so everything got very out of alignment.
A few adjustments - tiny and pain free from all of the evidence I saw - made a lot of difference to his flexibility, feeding etc etc.
Ask around for one that specialises in young children.
Could be torticolis , pretty common and generally v easily sorted. Sort as soon as poss so as not to compromise feeding or general comfort. Chiropractor should be able to sort. One of my dd's had same and chiropractic was fabulous. Cranial chiropractors are especially wonderful
Thank you all. Will look into the suggestions. It seems it might not be that 'normal' then. DD was born by planned cs but ended up being yanked quite hard as she got stuck. I wonder if that has anything to do with it. Will get google-ing and head off to gp.
Just for a bit of reassurance, my DS had a strong right-facing preference and developed a very wonky head as a result. I would try turning his head to the left when he was awake and he wouldn't have it - he wasn't in pain with it so I was confident it wasn't torticollis. I just gently turned his head to the left whenever he was asleep and (only when we were out with the pram and could keep a continuous eye on him) would wedge a blanket or jumper behind his head to keep him facing left while he slept. Didn't go to GP, chiropractor or anything, although I did mention in to my HV in case it persisted and she was happy with what I was doing. It sorted itself out in the end, I think when he was around 3.5-4 months, and he shocked me no end by doing his first roll to his left!
My DGD did that, she is infact blind in one eye due to a missing optic nerve.
Her eye looks perfectly normal and reacts to light normally but does not send the message to the brain.
Hope its not that but it hasnt caused her much of a problem.
My DS had a similar thing. It was effecting his feeding which is how I noticed it.
We took him to a cranial osteopath & they sorted it in three sessions. It was a result of my v long, back to back labour & apparently quite common
Ds4 had this. Dr thought I was bikers but at 8 weeks he was getting flat head on one side. Bought pillow online ( lilli kuddis?) which wasn't too much (and arrive next day ) and used that plus 2-3 trips up cranial osteo who I knew. Sorted itself by 4 months but I was on to it and I turned his head every time he was sleeping to the other side.
Bonkers - not bikers - bloody iPhone
We were worried about ours at around that age too. She may have been 10 weeks, something like that. We worried about torticolis too, and posted on here and booked appointment with GP but by the time the appointment came around a few days later, our LO was looking both ways and was completely normal/ Our GP said people usually have a side preference (right-handed or left-handed) and so that's probably all there was to it. I'd suggest booking an appointment if you are worried, but just keep encouraging your child to look both ways by using toys, music, noises, a mirror etc.
same here, exactly the same (torticolis).... HV dismissed it and GP said "nothign was wrong". Did research and then went to see an osteopath who confirmed my "research". Also bought the lilla kudis pillow, which little one likes (only use it during the day though when I monitor him) and now he turns his head both ways happily (he is now 5 months old)
Ds1 had this. He also couldn't bf very well on one side.
We took him to a cranial osteopath and after one session he moved his head fully to both sides and his latch improved.
My dd had this after a ventouse delivery. Would sleep in a weird position and not look over to one side.
We used a lovenest pillow to keep her straight at night. Saw a osteopath which helped and told the health visitor who referred her for physio but by the time the appointment came round she was better.
However, whilst waiting for the nhs physio, a paediatric physio friend gave me some exercises to encourage her to go to the other side along with changing her basket/ changing table position to encourage her to look to the other side.
By around 3.5 months she was fine and still is.
My DS was the same but was also quite a restless and difficult baby so we took him to a cranial osteopath. She did some work on his neck, amongst other things, to try and loosen it up and it really helped. Other than a slight flatness to the side of his head he always laid on you would never know he'd had a problem.
Dressme my ds1 was exactly the same. His eyes would look left, but he wouldn't turn the head. He was probably around 4 months when it righted itself. I didn't go to the GP about it cos I thought it would sorts itself out. Maybe mention at the baby clinic .. I think it's quite common.
Our dd had similar issue for first few weeks. She was a ventouse delivery with shoulder dystocia, cranial osteopath sorted her out, took 4 sessions though as her trunk had twisted a lot too
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Procare can be used while women are trying to conceive, not just whilst pregnant. It contains important vitamins and minerals that are not only important for women preparing to have children. This article describes how the ingredients of Procare can benefit women trying to conceive, like folic acid, which should be taken before pregnant to reduce the risk of neural tube defects.
Apr 3, 2013
Procare as a breastfeeding supplement
Procare can be used after pregnancy as an important breastfeeding supplement for mothers. The nutrient requirements of many vitamins and minerals increase after pregnancy as they are required to make quality breast milk for infants to continue growth and development. This article looks at why these nutrients are important and how Procare can benefit breastfeeding mothers and their babies.