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Crispy Mustard-Coated Brussels SproutsLia Huber 2017-08-15T12:45:58+00:00
Curried Cauliflower SteaksLia Huber 2017-08-15T12:51:28+00:00
Simple Dry-Brined Turkey Breast with SageAlison Ashton 2017-05-19T00:18:48+00:00
Meatless MeatloafLia Huber 2017-05-19T00:18:55+00:00
A Better Apple Brown BettyLia Huber 2018-08-15T12:38:24+00:00
I'm a big fan of any kind of dessert that involves, essentially, piling a bunch of good things in a baking dish and popping it [...]
Oven-Steamed Beets with Cumin and CorianderLia Huber 2017-05-19T00:18:55+00:00
I love the convenience of pre-ground spices, but for this dish it's worth it to toast whole spices for a minute or so and grind [...]
Glazed Acorn Squash MoonsLia Huber 2017-05-19T00:18:55+00:00
I'll just warn you up front. You are definitely going to want to double this acorn squash recipe. It's so good you can't help nibbling [...]
Simple Butternut Squash SoupLia Huber 2018-08-15T14:13:20+00:00
Slow-Roasted Mechoui (Moroccan-Spiced Leg of Lamb)Lia Huber 2017-05-19T00:18:59+00:00
I was lucky enough to nab a leg of organic, sustainably-raised lamb from Montana's Willow Spring Ranch at Shelton's Market for this and was rewarded with succulent, juicy meat spiked through with spice. To find a source for grass-fed lamb (and other meats) near you for your Easter meal, check out Eat Wild. Serve this with quinoa, mixed greens, sliced black olives, thick slices of orange, thinly sliced fennel and red onion tossed with the dressing from this salad here.


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Market Views▼
On the wall of my Pittsburgh office hangs a copy of a Barron's feature article on Federated from August 2014, "A Bull's Advice, Get Ready for S&P 2500." The S&P 500 at that time seemed stuck in a tight range between 1,900 and 2,000, having melted through our previous bull market target of 1,650 the year before. While initial reaction to the 2,500 call among clients was, "Wow, that's kind of optimistic," slowly but surely the underlying positive fundamentals of the economy and market drove us there.
That's how bull markets work. Up the Wall of Worry—a wall that remains very much intact today. Indeed, as the equity market has been hovering around all-time highs since late August, our equity team and virtually everyone else has been expecting a late summer or early fall 3% to 5% correction. And while a correction of this magnitude is always, always, I repeat always possible, we think the balance of risks near-term are leaning heavily in favor of another big up-move toward the 3,000 target we initiated last June.
In fact, we will go so far as to say the correction happened beneath our collective noses and we missed it. In recognition of this, Federated's macro PRISM® committee this week added again to equities, (specifically, small-cap value stocks), raising our overall equity allocation in our stock-bond model portfolio to 92% of maximum. Here's a brief summary behind our thinking:
All of this comes against a backdrop for a market that, for all the talk about it continuing to set new highs, is really up only 2-3% over the last four months, with sell-offs occurring among its various sectors—industrials, energy, consumer discretionary, and most recently, technology. So in a way, we've had a rolling correction. We also think that concerns about the market being expensive should soon abate. Most of the "it's overvalued" talk is centered around trailing earnings, which were in a recession from mid-2015 through 2016. The last of the earnings-recession quarters are now dropping off, and as we approach year-end 2017, investors will be comparing a level of 2,500 against a trailing earnings number closer to $130, or a 19 P/E. Better, they will be looking now to 2018, which Federated's relatively conservative forecast puts at $140, with a P/E under 18. This is not cheap, but nowhere near dangerously expensive given where bond yields are likely to remain through "the long cycle (See "Market Memo: Summer storms won't derail the long cycle") All told, it seems the near-term risks to the market through year-end are a move higher, not lower. So put away your worry beads and start thinking of the next important big level on the S&P 500: 3,000. We could be there sooner than we all think.

subset: commoncrawl