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The people who like to think they are managing the world's affairs seem fiercely determined to ignore the world's true condition -- namely, the permanent contraction of industrial economies. They just can't grok it. Two hundred years of cheap fossil fuel programmed mankind to expect limitless goodies forever on an upward-swinging arc of techno miracles. Now that the cheap fossil fuels have plateaued, with decline clearly in view, the hope remains that all the rackets of modernity can keep going on techno miracles alone. Meanwhile, things and events are in revolt, especially the human race's financial operating system, the world's weather, and the angry populations of floundering nations. The Grand Vizier of this blog, that is, Yours Truly, makes no great claims for his crystal ball gazing (Dow at 4,000 - ha!), but he subscribes to the dictums of two wise men from the realm of major league baseball: Satchel Paige, who famously stated, "Don't look back," and Yogi Berra, who remarked of a promising rookie, "His whole future's ahead of him!" In that spirit, and as for looking back, suffice it to say that in 2012, the world's managers -- and by this I do not mean some occult cabal but the visible leaders in politics, banking, business, and news media -- pulled out all the stops to suppress the appearance of contraction, and in so doing only supplied more perversion and distortion to the train of events that leads implacably to an agonizing workout, or readjustment of reality's balance sheet. There's a fair chance that these restraints will unravel in 2013, exposing civilization to a harsh new leasing agreement with its landlord, the Planet Earth. On a personal note, I published a book in 2012 titled Too Much Magic: Wishful Thinking, Technology, and the Fate of the Nation. By an interesting coincidence, folks in the USA were engaged that year in manifold strenuous exercises in wishful thinking, ranging from fantasies of "energy independence," to belief that central bank interventions could take the place of productive economic activity, to the idea that winks, suggestions, and guidelines were an adequate substitute for the rule of law, to the omnipresent mantra invoking "technology" as the sovereign remedy for every problem of existence (including the problems caused by technology), to the dominions of utter stupidity where climate change deniers hold hands with the funders of "creation" museums. Since wishful thinkers, by definition, are allergic to arguments against wishfulness, my book failed to make an impression. Anyway, gales of propaganda were blowing across the land, especially from the oil and gas fraternity, with the added cognitive dissonance hoopla of a presidential election -- so the public was left wishfully bamboozled as it whirled around the drain of its hopes and dreams.
The Oil and Money Predicament
If you understand the basic formula that ever-increasing cheap energy resources were the fundamental condition for industrial growth for two centuries, then you must realize that they are also behind the modern operations of capital, especially the mechanism that allows massive volumes of interest on debt to be repaid -- hence behind all of contemporary banking. And if you get that, it is easy to see how the end of cheap energy has screwed the pooch for modern finance. In fact, let's step back for a panoramic view of what happened with that relationship in recent times: In 1970 you get American peak oil production at just under 10 mmbd (million barrels a day). This chart tells the story:
US Oil production 1920 to 2012
That event was little noted at the time, but by 1973, the rest of the world was paying attention, especially the OPEC countries led by the big exporters in the Middle East. All they had to do was look at the published production figures and by 1973 the trend was apparent. They apprehended that US production had entered decline -- predicted by American geologist M. King Hubbert -- and that they, OPEC, could now put the screws to the USA. Which they commenced to do during a decade of rather messy oil crises (messy because they were accompanied by geopolitical events such as the Yom Kippur War and the 1979 revolution in Iran). OPEC could put the screws to the USA because our still-growing industrial economy required a still-growing oil supply -- the growth of which now had to be furnished by imports from other nations. The catch was that those other nations raised the price substantially, virtually overnight, and since everything in the US economy used oil in one way or another, the entire cost structure of our manufacture, supply, distribution, and retail chains was thrown askew. The net effect for the USA was that our economy went off the rails for a decade and lots of strange things started happening in the financial sector. They called it "stagflation" -- stagnant economic activity + rising prices. It was hardly a conundrum. The OPEC price-jackings of 1973 and 1979 made everything Americans had to buy more costly, in effect devaluing the dollar while throwing sand in the gears of industrial production. Meanwhile, dazed and confused American industry started losing out to Japan and Europe in things like electronics and cars. Price inflation was running over 13 percent in the late '70s. Interest rates skyrocketed. When Federal Reserve chair Paul Volker aggressively squashed inflation with a punitive prime rate of 20 percent in 1981, the economy promptly tanked. Now look at this chart:
Notice that our oil consumption kept rising from the early 1980s until the middle of the early 2000s. Now look at the circle in the chart below. That rise of production from the late 1970s to about 1990 is mostly about production from the Prudhoe Bay oil fields in Alaska -- one of the last great discoveries of the oil age (along with the North Sea and the fields of Siberia). US production did not regain the 1970 peak level, but it put a smile on the so-called Reagan Revolution and on Margaret Thatcher's exertions to revive comatose Great Britain. Post Peak Bump up from Alaskan Oil
Now look at the price of oil (chart below). You can see what a fiasco the period 1973 to 1981 was for US oil prices: huge rapid price rises in '73 and '79. But then the price started to fall steeply after 1981 and stayed around the same price levels as its pre-1973 lows.
1970s Oil Price Spike and Thereafter The price of oil landed close to its pre-1973 levels by 1986 and hung out there (though more erratically) until the mid-2000s. Because of those aforementioned last great giant oil field discoveries, OPEC lost its price leverage over world oil markets. Through the 1980s and 90s the price of oil went down until it reached the modern low of about $11 a barrel. That was when The Economist magazine ran a cover story that declared the world was "drowning in oil." It was the age of "Don't worry, be happy." The price behavior of the oil markets after 1981 had interesting reverberations in both the macro economy and the financial sector (which is supposed to be part of the macro economy, not a replacement for it). A consensus formed in business and politics that it was okay to yield manufacturing to other nations. It was dirty and nasty and caused pollution, so let other countries have it. We followed the siren call of clean and tidy forms of production: "knowledge work!" The computer revolution had begun in earnest. The financial sector began its metastasis from 5 percent of the economy to, eventually, 40 percent, and really cheap oil prompted the last great suburban sprawl-building pulsation into the Martha Stewart bedecked McMansion exurbs. In effect, financial shenanigans and sprawl-building became the basis for the vaunted "Next Economy." It lasted about 20 years. That incarnation of the US economy failed spectacularly as soon as oil prices started to creep up in the early 2000s. And, of course, the final suburban sprawl boom went hand-in-hand with all the shenanigans in banking. So when it all blew up, beginning in 2007 with the collapse of Bear Stearns, the USA was left with a gutted economy, insolvent banks, and a living arrangement with no future.
The Current Situation
We're now entering the seventh year of a smoke-and-mirrors, extend-and-pretend, can-kicking phase of history in which everything possible is being done to conceal the true condition of the economy, with the vain hope of somehow holding things together until a miracle rescue remedy -- some new kind of cheap or even free energy -- comes on the scene to save all our complex arrangements from implosion. The chief device to delay the reckoning has been accounting fraud in banking and government, essentially misreporting everything on all balance sheets and in statistical reports to give the appearance of well-being where there is actually grave illness, like the cosmetics and prosthetics Michael Jackson used in his final years to pretend he still had a face on the front of his head. The secondary tactic has been intervention in markets wherever possible and the intemperate manipulation of interest rates, all of which has the effect of defeating the principle purpose of markets: price discovery -- the process by which the true value of things is established based on what people will freely pay. For instance the price of money-on-loan. The functionally less-than-zero percent interest rates on money loaned between giant institutions like central banks and their client "primary dealers" (the Too Big To Fails) essentially pays these outfits for borrowing, which is obviously a distortion in the natural order of things (because it violates the second law of thermodynamics: entropy) as well as an arrant racket. The campaign of intervention and manipulation also deeply impairs the other purpose of markets, capital formation, by the resultant mismanagement and misallocation of whatever real surplus wealth remains in this society. What's more, it allows these TBTF banks to become ever-bigger monsters which hold everybody else hostage by threatening to crash the system if they are molested or interfered with. Which brings us to the third tactic for pretending everything is all right: complete lack of enforcement and regulation by all the authorities charged with making sure that rules are followed in money matters. This includes the alphabet soup of agencies from the Securities and Exchange Commission to the Commodities Futures Trading Commission, to the Federal Housing Authority, and so on (the list of responsible parties is very long) not to mention the Big Kahunas: the US Department of Justice, and the federal and state courts. Aside from Bernie Madoff and a few Hedge Fund mavericks nipped for insider trading and arrant fraud, absolutely nobody in the TBTF banking community has been prosecuted or even charged for the monumental swindles of our time, while the regulators have behaved in ways that would be considered criminally negligent at best, and sheer racketeering at less-than-best, in any self-respecting polity. The crime runs so deep and thick through all the levels of money management and regulation that one can say the whole system has gone rogue, up to the President of the US himself, the chief enforcement officer of the land, who has not lifted a finger to discipline any of the parties involved. The fact that Jon Corzine, late of MF Global, is still at large says it all. Fourth-and-finally, the news media in league with the public relations industry have undertaken a campaign of happy talk to persuade the public that everything is okay and all the machinations cited above are kosher so that there is absolutely no political agitation over these crimes against their own interest, which is to say, the public interest. The PR/media happy talk racket is also aimed at maintaining various subsidiary fictions about the economy, such as the fibs that the housing market is bouncing back, that "recovery" is ongoing, and that the channel-stuffing monkeyshines of the car industry amount to booming sales of new vehicles. Perhaps the most pernicious big lie is the bundle of fairy tales surrounding shale oil and shale gas, including the idea that America will shortly become "energy independent" or that we have "a hundred years of shale gas" as President Obama was mis-advised to tell the nation. It is pernicious because it gives us collectively an excuse to do nothing about changing our behavior or preparing for the new arrangements in daily life that the future will require of us.
The Shale Ponzi
Well, because that's what it is: a Ponzi scheme, aimed at gathering in sucker-investors to boost share prices of oil and gas companies, with the hope that some miracle will occur to make financially broke societies capable of paying three or four times the price for oil and gas than their infrastructure for daily life was set up to run on, back when it seemed to be running okay. This is just not going to happen. Let's start with shale gas. The gas is there in the "tight" rock strata, all right, but it is difficult and expensive to get out. The process is nothing like the old conventional process of sticking a pipe in the ground and getting "flow." It's not necessary to go into the techno-details (you can read about that elsewhere) but to give you a rough idea, it takes four times as much steel pipe to get shale gas out of the ground. I have previously touched on the impairment of capital formation due to machinations in banking - themselves a perverse response to the loss of capacity to pay back interest at all levels of the money system, which was caused by the world's running out of cheap oil and gas. (Note emphasis on cheap.) The net effect of all that turns out to be scarcity in another resource: capital, i.e. money, rather specifically money for investment in things like shale oil and gas. Ironically, plenty of money was available around 2004-5 when the campaign to go after shale oil and gas got ramped up over premonitions of global peak oil. How come there was money then and not now? Because we were at peak cheap oil and hence peak credit back then, which is to say peak available real capital. So, the oil and gas companies were able then to attract lots of investment money to set out on this campaign. They brought as many drilling rigs as they could into the shale oil and gas play regions and they drilled the shit out of them. Natural gas was selling for over $13 a unit (thousand cubic feet) around 2005, and it was that high precisely because conventional cheap nat gas production was in substantial decline. That was then, this is now. As a result of drilling the shit out of the gas plays, the producers created a huge glut for a brief time. They queered their own market long enough to wreck their business model. Unlike oil, nat gas is much more difficult to export -- it requires expensive tankers, compression and refrigeration of the gas to a liquid, seaboard terminals to accomplish all that (which we don't have), so there was no way to fob off the surplus gas on other nations. The domestic market was overwhelmed and there was no more room to store the stuff. So, for a few years the price sank and sank until it was under $2 a unit by 2011. Since shale gas production is just flat-out uneconomical at that price, the companies engaged in it began to suffer hugely. In the process of all this a pattern emerged showing that shale gas wells typically went into depletion very quickly after year one. So all of the activity from 2004 to 2011 was a production bubble, aimed at proving what a bonanza shale gas was to stimulate more investment. It required a massive rate of continuous drilling and re-drilling just to keep the production rate level -- to maintain the illusion of a 100-year bonanza -- and that required enormous quantities of capital. So the shale gas play began to look like a hamster wheel of futility. After 2011 the rig count began to drop and of course production leveled off and the price began to go up again. As I write the price is $3.31 a unit, which is still way below the level where natural gas is profitable for companies to produce -- say, above $8. The trouble is, once the price rises into that range it becomes too expensive for many of its customers, especially in a contracting economy with a shrinking middle class, falling incomes, and failing businesses. So what makes it economical for the producers (high price) will make it unaffordable for the customers (no money). Because of the complex nature of these operations, with all the infrastructure required, and all the money needed to provide it, the shale gas industry will not be able to go through more than a couple of boom / bust cycles before it begins to look like a fool's game and the big companies throw in the towel. The catch is: there are no small companies that can carry on operations as complex and expensive as shale requires. Only big companies can make shale gas happen. So a lot of gas will remain trapped in the "tight" rock very far into the future. Obviously I haven't even mentioned the "fracking" process, which is hugely controversial in regard to groundwater pollution, and a subject which I will not elaborate on here, except to say that there's a lot to be concerned about. However, I believe that the shale gas campaign will prove to be a big disappointment to its promoters and will founder on its own defective economics rather than on the protests of environmentalists. Much of what I wrote about shale gas is true for shale oil with some departures. One is that the price of oil did not go down when US shale oil production rose. That's because the amount of shale oil produced -- now about 900,000 barrels a day -- is working against the headwinds of domestic depletion in regular oil + world consumption shifting to China and the rest of Asia + the declining ability of the world's exporters to keep up their levels of export oil available to the importers (us). We still import 42 percent of the oil we use every day. The fundamental set up of life in the USA -- suburban sprawl with mandatory driving for everything -- hasn't changed during the peak cheap oil transition and represents too much "previous investment" for the public to walk away from. So we're stuck with it until it manifestly fails. (Life is tragic and history doesn't excuse our poor choices.) The price of oil has stayed around the $90 a barrel range much of 2012. Oil companies can make a profit in shale oil at that price. However, that's the price at which the US economy wobbles and tanks, which is exactly what is happening. The US cannot run economically on $90 oil. If the price were to go down to a level the economy might be able to handle, say $40 a barrel, the producers of shale oil would go broke getting it out of the ground. This brings us back to the fact that the issue is cheap oil, not just available oil. As the US economy stumbles, and the banking system implodes on the incapacity of debt repayment, there will be less and less capital available for investment in shale oil. As with shale gas, the shale oil wells deplete very rapidly, too, and production requires constant re-drilling, meaning more rigs, more employees, more trucks hauling fracking fluid, and more capital investment. This is referred to as "the Red Queen syndrome," from Lewis Carrol's Through the Looking Glass tale in which the Red Queen tells Alice that she has to run as fast as she can to stay where she is. The bottom line for shale oil is that we're likely to see production fall in the years directly ahead, to the shock and dismay of the 'energy independence' for lunch bunch. 2012 may have been peak shale oil. If the price of oil does go down to a level that seems affordable, it will be because the US economy has been crushed and America is mired in a depression at least as bad as the 1930s, in which case a lot of people will be too broke to even pay for cheaper oil. Hence, the only possibility that America will become energy independent would be a total collapse of the modern technological-industrial economy. The shale oil and gas campaign therefore must be regarded as a desperate gambit by a society in deep trouble engaging in wishing and fantasy to preserve a set of behaviors that can no longer be justified by the circumstances reality presents.
Macro-economic Issues
Major fissures began to show in the Ponzified global financial system in 2012 and it is hard to imagine them not yawning open dangerously in 2013. All the Eurozone countries are in trouble. Its collective economy has been tanking faster than the US economy because the member nations can't print their own money and it is harder to conceal the financial tensions between debt accumulation and government expenditures. These tensions end up expressed as "austerity" -- meaning fewer and fewer people get paid, which makes people angry and makes governments unstable. Bailout procedures are transparently laughable under the European Central Bank and the other bank-like "facilities," giving money to governments so that they can give it to insolvent banks, so the banks can buy government bonds, which only stuff the banks with more bad paper, and take the national debts higher. Several Euro member countries are contenders for default this coming year: Greece, Spain, possibly Italy, and perhaps even France, which is now a basket-case dressed in Hollandaise sauce. A perfect storm in the global bond market has formed with Europe crippled, Canada and Australia entering their own (long-delayed and spectacular) housing bubble busts, the USA sharply losing credibility as it fails to politically address its balance sheet problems -- or even continue to pretend that it might -- and Japan utterly floundering under a new lack of commitment to nuclear power, the need to import virtually all the fossil fuels it needs for its industrial economy, a consequent negative balance of trade (for the first time in decades), and a deadly debt-to-GDP ratio around 240 percent. Many observers see the new Japanese government under Shinzo Abe as determined to inflate his own currency away to nothing in an effort to unload exports and erase debt, and nobody understands how that strategy turns out well. My own view, expressed here before, is that Japan is on a fast track to become the first advanced nation to opt out of industrialism and go medieval. It might sound like a joke, but its not. And it would be consistent with Japan's historic cultural personality of making stark choices, even if it was not clearly articulated in the political theater. The journey to that destination could include a war with China, which also would be consistent with Japan's suicidal inclinations, so clearly displayed in its last major war with the US. The global bond market is held together with baling wire and hose clamps. Since money is loaned into existence (in the words of Chris Martenson) the global financial system is underwritten by its bonds, and the bonds are underwritten only by the faith that issuers can pay the interest due to bondholders. Risk rises in an exact ratio as that faith wanes. And interest rates must rise hand-in-hand with that rising risk -- unless the ruling authorities (central banks and governments) conspire to repress them. These "unnatural" interventions will only cause the trouble to be expressed elsewhere in collapsing currencies and economies. It is already happening under the various ZIRP regimes, setting up a feedback loop in which it becomes even less likely that bond-holders will be paid and more faith erodes until nobody wants any bonds and the market for them seizes up and all that paper becomes worthless. These days, the only sovereign nation in the Eurozone with real financial credibility (i.e. tangible surplus wealth) is Germany. The European Central Bank has only a printing press and the European Financial Stability Facility only pretends to have access to pretend money. At some point, the Germans will have to decide whether they truly want to pick up the tab for all the unpaid bills of the Eurozone. Either they pay for life support for their customers or they let them go under and either way, they end up in the black hole of a contracting export economy, which is to say depression. Now, imagine Germany having to bail out France. Wouldn't that be a moment of plangent historical symmetry? I'm not the only one to propose that Germany may shock the world in 2013 by pulling out of the Euro on short notice and taking shelter behind the Deutschmark. It may limit the damage, but otherwise they are stuck where they are geographically and as the other nations in Europe ride their economies down, Germany's will contract, too. One idea behind the Eurozone was to get its members so economically interdependent that war would be an unthinkable option. The period following the Napoleonic Wars (1815 - 1914) was exceptionally peaceful in Europe, too. Then, the 20th century rolled onstage with the unspeakable horror of two consecutive "world wars." They occurred amid a phenomenal uptrend of increasing industrial wealth and burgeoning technology. Note that the defeat of the French army at Waterloo in 1815 was accomplished by a coalition of British and German (Prussian) forces. (The teams change through history.) Note also that the end of the long peace of the 19th century, the First World War, was a trauma the real cause of which continues to mystify the historians -- did England, France, Germany care that much about Serbia to destroy their economies? The Second World War was an extension of the unresolved business of the first, especially the question of who owed what to whom for all the damage. One thing we do know: the world was not prepared for the consequences of industrial-strength warfare with high tech weapons: the massacres of the trenches, aerial bombing of cities full of civilians, and the assembly-line style crematorium. The atom bomb finally sobered folks up in 1945. The ensuing period has been another age of peace and plenty in Europe. The next act there will be played out against the backdrop of declining wealth and unraveling techno-industrial complexity. It may be a set of low-grade grinding struggles rather than an operatic debacle like the two world wars, and it will surely include internal civil strife in this-or-that country, which could turn outward and become contagious. The next time Europe finds itself a smoldering ruin, the capital will not be there to rebuild it. I'm not sure whether it matters all that much whether the single currency Euro survives or not. Everything economic is hitting the skids in Europe now led by plunging car sales. Record high youth unemployment is epidemic, including now in France. The debt problems there can only be solved by deleveraging and/or default. The chance of coordinated cooperative fiscal discipline among the Euro member nations is nil. I see Europe poised to follow Japan into a re-run of the medieval period, though much less willingly. The quandary is: how do you have a wonderful and peaceful modern culture without an economy to support it. The United Kingdom stands outside the Euro currency club (though it is in the European Union of trade agreements) but London remains the financial hub of the continent, if not the money-laundering center of the universe. The financial mischief there is allowed to go on because washing and rinsing money is the only major industry left in Old Blighty. Its own finances are in terrible disarray, the people have been subject to painful "austerity" for some time before the PIIGS started squealing, and its energy resources are dwindling away to nothing. The governing coalition of David Cameron's Tories and the Nick Clegg's Liberal Democrats is cracking up under the austerity strain, with Nigel Farage's Independence Party creeping up in the polls. With the LIBOR scandal entering the adjudication phase, monkey business in the London gold and silver bullion market, and half the world's daily churn of interest rate derivatives, "the City" (London's Wall Street) is one black swan away from provoking a world-scale financial accident that could daisy-chain through all the world's big banks and create a "nuclear winter" of capital. It's too bad the UK didn't keep making chocolate bars and those wonderful tin soldiers I played with as a child. Instead, the nation became a casino with a lot of excellent Asian restaurants. It is nicely positioned to be the whipping boy for the rest of Europe as everybody's fortunes turn down, but it has enough military hardware to strike back and cause a whole lot more trouble. Imagine England becoming the Bad Boy of Europe in the 21st century, having to be disciplined now by the Germans! Russia is a few wealthy cities in an enormous flat alternative universe of ice and fir trees. Perhaps global warming will perk up the long-suffering Russian people. Meanwhile, 50 percent of Russia's economy is tied to its oil and gas production. Their great Siberian fields are petering out just like the Alaskan and North Sea giants that were discovered around the same time. They have been throwing huge numbers of drilling rigs into depleting fields to keep production up and pursuing some "tight" rock plays with help from the USA's Halliburton and Schlumberger, with few environmental protests in the wilds of Siberia. I'm not persuaded that exploration for oil in the offshore Arctic region will have a great outcome. Where does the capital investment come from if every other advanced industrial economy is broke? Even if the sea ice melts it will be difficult and expensive to work in the Arctic seas, and the thawing permafrost of Siberia will leave an endless soggy patch of mosquito-infested mush between the offshore rigs and customers in Europe and elsewhere. Anyway, those customers will be increasingly impoverished and hard-pressed to pay for ever more pricey oil. The Russians may be hopeful that climate change will boost their crop yields and make their portion of the earth comparatively more habitable -- but it's more likely that thawing permafrost will prang the entire human experiment. There are fewer cheerleaders for China and its economic fortunes than a year or so ago, as deep problems in banking and politics reveal themselves, along with the troubles plainly visible in their slumping export markets. If people in the USA and Europe don't buy all the flat screen TVs and plastic stuff then China is going to choke on industrial overcapacity. (It already is.) They have accomplished some marvelous things recently, especially compared to the cretinous lethargy of the USA -- for instance, building a great continental high speed railroad line and a huge solar energy industry -- but they face the same fundamental quandary as all the other industrial nations: declining fossil fuel resources with no comparable replacement on the horizon. Their positioning for the coming great contraction vis-à-vis the aforementioned advantages in solar and rail transport must be offset by an opaque, corrupt, and despotic political regime, a huge and potentially restive population of laid-off urban factory workers, and a chaotic banking system. They have laid in a lot of "reserves" in the way of US treasury paper and stockpiled much valuable construction material (steel, copper, cement, etc), but what does that really mean? If they dumped the treasuries, or even systematically divested, they could trash the bond market and the dollar. And what might they do with all the construction material in an economy with sinking demand for new buildings? Will they need more super-highways as the price of gasoline makes car ownership less affordable? China appears to be accumulating big supplies of gold bullion -- they have also become the world's number one producer of mined gold, eclipsing played-out South Africa. That could give them a lot more room to maneuver in a world of vanishing resources and collapsing economies, at least in terms of being able to swap for food and fuel. They may be attempting to establish a gold-backed currency to replace the dollar for international trade settlements. Doings at the ASEAN Summit in November suggests they are engineering just such a new reserve currency for the world to run shrieking to when America's foolishness and cowboy swagger becomes too much to take -- though US dollar dominance was based as much on America's (now bygone) rule of law in money matters as America's sheer economic power, and China remains Dodge City where the rule of law is concerned. The world might not be so eager to be pushed around by the Yuan. But it may be accomplished by financial coup d'état whether the world likes it or not. My forecast for China in 2013 is a widening crack in the political façade of the formerly omnipotent ruling party, organized agitation by unemployed factory workers (with government blowback), bullying of their senile neighbor (and historical enemy) Japan, and sullen, peevish behavior toward their ailing trade partners, Europe and especially the USA. Worldwide economic entropy cancels out China's putative advantages in cash reserves, stockpiles of "stuff," and government that can do what it pleases without a loyal opposition tossing sand in its gears. Contrary to the wishful thinking of Tom Friedman, globalism is winding down. The great contraction leads back to a regional and local reorganization of activity in all nations. The world becomes a bigger place again with more space between the players and a larger array of players as big nations break up into autonomous states. This is really a new phase of history, though it is only just beginning in 2013.
Outlying Territories
Literally anything can happen in the Middle East, up to the initiation of an event that resembles a world war. As a general proposition, there are just too many people inhabiting this region of the world and the political tensions among them reached critical mass in 2013. The meltdown will continue with enough critical frailty to prang the region's oil exporting capacity, it's main source of wealth and power. It just wouldn't take much. King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia is pushing 90. His subjects are getting more numerous, collectively poorer, and more anxious about their future. The country is surrounded by failing regimes. I forecast overthrow of the Saud family's long grip on power this year, with a struggle among other entitled families there and finally an Islamic revolution adding spice to the political upheaval. I doubt that Israel will try to attack Iran's nuclear factories without overt consent from the US government, which will be withheld from Israel, on account of the difficulties ongoing in the US economy. Overall I expect gross deterioration of civil order, living standards, and oil export markets in the Middle East. The US will be foolish to intervene. South America gets a little poorer, Argentina defaults again, but this continent remains a sleeping backwater in the world -- perhaps proof that the hedge funders fleeing to sanctuaries in backwaters like Uruguay may have made a great call. Mexico is the exception. Whatever economic and political sickness the US suffers will infect our neighbor to the south. Too many people there competing for not enough stuff. There will be blood (as the old movie title goes). Turning 9,000 miles to the east, can Pakistan become a worse basket-case of a nation? I suppose they could, if taken over by their homegrown Islamic maniacs. India next door will be rocked by the great global economic contraction. The two countries, well armed with atomic bombs are a bad combo. Unfortunately, a distracted world cannot pay much attention.
Woe to Markets
Between government and central bank interventions, accounting fraud, control fraud, the computer hugger-mugger of algorithmic trading, and AWOL rule of law, the financial markets have practically destroyed themselves. They can't be depended on to express the real value of things and capital formation struggles against the headwinds of peak cheap energy on top of massive fraud and swindling. The markets can only blow up. When the wreckage clears and new, smaller markets form, as they will, they must operate differently, with new rules and restraints, because the blow up of today's markets will be such a trauma that nobody will venture to engage with them if they don't. A world without simplified and honest capital, commodity, and equity markets would beat a quick path back to a dark age, and in the process a lot of people will die of cold and starvation. The full workout of all that may be some years further out, but the blowout will commence in 2013. The glue that held these markets together was faith that they meant something -- and that faith has been pissed away by fools in high places who drained all the honesty out of them. It was a classic case out of the Joseph Tainter playbook: diminishing returns of ever-increasing complexity addressed with ever-more layers of complexity, larded with systematic lying based on mystifying, opaque jargon, sanctioned statistical misreporting, felonious cronyism, and scuttling of the rule of law. In short, the markets have been taken over in effect by a criminal racketeering syndicate. In doing this, so much resilience has been removed from these market structures that they are riddled with rot, like a mansion infested with carpenter ants. In other words, borrowing a term from Taleb, they are hopelessly fragile. Any little vibration could reduce the whole creaking arrangement into a heap of rubble and ashes. There's plenty of vibration available out there. Events are humming. The debt mountains in the USA and elsewhere far overshadow the equity and commodity market molehills, and unpaid debt will eventually overcome all the forces of untruth. Debt is a subsidiary of the force known as reality. Its will cannot be denied, even by Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, the US Treasury, and the Federal Open Markets Committee. And the unwinding of unpaid debt, honestly acknowledged or not, will thunder through the system sucking wealth out of advanced societies so efficiently that it will make the Seven Plagues of the Bible look like a flat tire on a sunny day. So, finally my picks for 2013: -- Dow 4000 (What!? Did he say that!? Again!?). Even the algos will run squealing into the underbrush this time.
-- Gold $2500 by 12/31/2013 (and headed higher) after a Q-1 deleveraging swoon. Silver $125. Uncertainty trumps greed and fear.
-- Two-way Stagflation -- massive asset deflation combined with high energy and food costs. Americans go broke fast, go hungry, go nowhere.
-- California, Illinois, and New Jersey beg the broke federal government for bailouts. The federal government pretends to bail them out. Austerity has a field day.
-- Despite willingness to do so, the Federal Reserve can no longer "print" money to overcome the deflationary contraction of wealth. They are finally "out of ammunition." They will try nonetheless. Consequently some nations will stop accepting dollars for trade, possibly the Middle Eastern oil exporters. That would be very bad news.
-- Shale oil and gas production stop increasing, possibly turns around to decline. The event hugely demoralizes "energy independence" cornucopians.
-- Gasoline shortages return to the USA on a scale last seen in the 1970s. Cause: broken oil market allocation system. Some regions suffer more than others.
-- Drought continues in the US heartland. The grain belt withers in 2013. Dixieland cooks like a chicken-fried steak. Food costs go crazy. The American public finally begins to freak out when confronted with $9 boxes of Cheerios.
-- A major earthquake hits the West Coast.
Have a nice year everybody.Apologies for any typos.The Kunstlercast podcast resumes in January!
For a complete list of books by James Howard Kunstler and purchase links, CLICK HERE.
Read more posts on Kunstler.com »


text:
Photo By: Mike Small Photography
Photo By: Home Depot
Photo By: Mountain Crest Gardens
Photo By: Stephanie Diani / Getty Images
Photo By: Anita Lang
Photo By: Pure Design Interiors
Photo By: Vance Fox, Microsoft Windows Photo Viewer 6.1.7600.16385
Photo By: Chipper Hatter Photography
Photo By: Sarah Wittenbraker
Photo By: Bryan Sebring
Photo By: Fine Focus Photography
Photo By: Scott Shigley
Photo By: Brown Design Group
Photo By: Braun + Adams
Photo By: Tony Soluri
Elegant Entryway
With lanterns and flower pots on either side of the steps, the front of this home boasts beautiful symmetry and balance. Large address numbers hang over the door to ensure that guests know where to go.
Visit Original Photo
Green and White Traditional Bedroom With Padded Bed Frame
This master bedroom is an oasis of creams and seafoam green. The upholstered wall is lit from a hidden soffit above, and the fabric matches the duvet cover. The trim on the edge of the upholstered wall is implemented in the Roman shade. The soft calming colors along with a padded headboard and footboard truly create an escape from the rest of the world.
Compact Growing
This small space garden bed is surprisingly affordable and offers a generous growing space for a gardener who has a green thumb but not enough room to grow. City Pickers Patio Raised Garden Bed, $29.97
Silver and Green Succulent Container Garden
Heat-tolerant thrillers, fillers and spillers pack this container of silvery-green succulents, with echeveria adding a pop of warm color on their red-tinged leaf edges. If you can't get your hands on Blue Pickle Vine, substitute any succulent with a trailing habit. Use fast-draining soil and place the plants in full sun for a fabulous container that can take summer's heat head-on. RECIPE: 'Caribbean' (Echeveria 'Caribbean', Zones 9-11); Blue Pickle Vine (Senecio radicans glauca, Zones 10-11), 3 plants; Peacock Echeveria (Echeveria peacockii, Zones 9-11); Little Jewel (Pachyphytum compactum, Zones 9-11), 2 plants; Mini Blue Chalksticks (Senecio serpens, Zones 9-11), 3 plants; Echeveria pollux (Zones 9-11); 'Blue Ruffles' (Echeveria 'Blue Ruffles', Zones 9-10); 'Afterglow' (Echeveria 'Afterglow', Zones 9-10); Pachyveria 'Noel' (Zones 9-11), 3 plants
Antique Bench
Warm wood accents like this antique bench pop against the bright white paint of the fireplace, as seen on Fixer Upper.
After: Living Room With Turquoise Accents
Turquoise accents in the stairwell and original paintings by David Bromstad in the kitchen create a cohesive color story between the two spaces.
Fresh, White Kitchen
The new Blount kitchen is open to the dining room which flows into the living room creating an open, airy space. White cabinetry and countertops create a bright cooking space, as seen on Fixer Upper.
Contemporary Bedroom With Deep Blue Accent Wall
A clean-lined four poster bed with a coordinating nightstand creates a contemporary look in this bedroom. A textured royal blue accent wall provides a beautiful backdrop, lending depth and interest to the space.
Flip or Flop: Unique Use of Space in White Modern Kitchen
As seen on HGTV's Flip or Flop, an extra long countertop is a creative way to make the most of the space in this bright white, modern kitchen. Hardwood floors extend into the living room pulling the separate spaces together.
Modern Widespread Faucet Complements Modern Bathroom
The close-up, side view of this Pure Design Interiors bathroom countertop shows the modern, minimalist style of the space. The modern chrome faucet, with its rounded center water spout, harmonizes nicely with the gray and white marble countertop of the vanity, while the small accessory objects to the left of the faucet give the space an earthy, natural touch.
Contemporary Back Porch Is Cozy, Stylish
Sleek rocking chairs, boxy armchairs and a clean-lined sofa pair with a large fire pit for a cozy yet contemporary feel on this back porch. Large sliding glass doors allow outdoor-indoor functionality.
Gray Coastal Dining Room With Wicker Chairs
Wicker chairs are a compelling combination with the white, coral-like light fixture in this dining room. The pale gray walls help the textures and crisp contrast leap out into the center of the space.
Eclectic Living Space Is Relaxed, Stylish
A family of five needed a relaxed yet beautiful living space using items they already owned and wanted to incorporate into the overall design. Designer Sarah Wittenbraker created this stunning living room doing just that; she achieved a stylish, eclectic design by mixing furniture pieces of contrasting styles.
Spacious, Fully Equipped Island in Contemporary Kitchen
Since the perimeter cabinets in this contemporary kitchen stretch from the floor to the ceiling, the island — which is is fully equipped with a sink, cooktop and vent hood — serves as the prep station.
Contemporary Italian Farmhouse Kitchen
This Austin, Texas, kitchen features warm colors and dark cabinetry that call back to the traditional, rustic feel of an Italian farmhouse. Wood beams criss-cross the ceiling, while broad, modern windows bring in loads of light.
Dining Room with Timeless Chandelier
This dining room is a a serene and sophisticated space that has a wonderful view of the outside greenery. The chandelier in the dining room adds a timeless elegance to the space.
Eclectic Dining Room With Banquette and Pendant Lights
Unique pendant lights hang from the ceiling of this eclectic dining room. The long wooden table is adorned with a banquette on one side and black chairs on the other side.
White Transitional Foyer With Pink Rug
A pink rug brings cheery energy to the foyer where the original elaborate stair railing was switched out for one with clean, simple lines. The result is a space that feel fresh and bright.
His Master Bathroom
The master bathroom for him feels like a day at the spa. A gray and white marbled sink and walls are luxurious details that contribute to the spa-like feel. The shower features the same marble walls with a bench seat for added relaxation.

subset: commoncrawl


text:
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text:
The competition for this day is closed. Go back to the calendar to find today's day and join in the fun!
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What did we pick up during today's journey?
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The competition for this day is closed. Go back to the calendar to find today's day and join in the fun!
This is a story about a plane
That travelled to and fro –
Collecting friends and special gifts,
For a King born years ago.
The plane was flown by pilot Mike,
An adventurer at heart.
He flew his plane for MAF,
A charity doing its part.
So jump on board this adventure tale –
Just imagine what you'll see.
We're counting down to Christmas
And there's space for you and me!
With a front row seat, you're in for a treat,
Are you ready…? Off we go!
Mike was in the pilot's seat,
Checking things were good to go,
When suddenly he heard a noise,
His vision was all aglow!
Rubbing his eyes, he looked about,
To see a very strange sight,
Ahead of him lay darkness,
With just one very bright light.
'Right!' cried Mike, 'I'll follow the star!'
And he expertly flew the plane,
When all of a sudden, a runway appeared,
So down the aircraft came.
Touching down, in a wintery scene,
The little plane finally stopped.
Mike opened the door to a howling wind;
Into deep, wet snow he dropped.
From what looked like an igloo-house,
A smiling man came out.
Clutching a box with a merry grin,
'Welcome to Mongolia!' came the shout.
'Here's our gift for the Christmas babe,
Make sure that you're not late!
For Christ is born in Bethlehem
– And here's our present in this crate.
'Now hurry on, friend, go follow that star,
You know there's no time to lose.
You've got our box of children's gifts
– Go spread the Christmas news!'
Back in the air, Mike saw the star
Shine brightly above his plane,
And suddenly he saw below,
A place to land again!
But this time the landing didn't appear
Quite as bumpy as before.
In fact, there was no tarmac at all,
It was water near a shore!
Opening the door, Mike could see
A large and sturdy float.
Now his little MAF plane
Could travel like a boat!
Swimming over, came a friendly man,
With something in his net.
He'd been fishing, and had come to give
A gift for Mike's cargo set.
'Here's a crab, she's a delicate thing –
You've landed in Bangladesh.
We don't have much, but we wanted to bring
A gift that's tasty and fresh!'
Before Mike could argue, the man jumped up
And the crab ran into the crate.
Closing the door and swimming away,
The man shouted without stopping to wait:
'Now hurry on, friend, you must take off,
There's not a moment to lose.
You've got a delicious local crab –
Go and spread the Christmas news!'
Back in the cockpit, Mike started the plane,
Wondering where next to land,
But it seemed the brightly shining star
Would lend a helping hand!
Airborne now, and down below,
The land looked lush and green;
A tropical isle with clean, white sand,
The most beautiful he'd seen!
Mike looked around for someone to ask
Where he might find a gift.
But then he saw a big, strong man,
With a sack that was heavy to lift.
'Greetings friend, you're welcome here
On the island of Kalimantan –
We're recovering slowly but wanted to give
The King the best gift we can.
'This heavy load is our favourite food,
Rice noodles to be sure.
He might be little, but when He's big,
He'll like them more and more!
'Now hurry on, friend, you must take off,
There's not a moment to lose.
You've got some noodles for a gift –
Go and spread the Christmas news!'
A moment later, the plane took off –
Up, up and high above.
Mike worked the dials to follow the star,
He was guided by God's love.
Down below lay more white sand,
A new island to explore.
But as Mike's plane began to descend,
He could see the people were poor.
Tiny shacks and barefoot children
Were playing in the street,
'They're all so thin,' Mike sadly thought;
There wasn't enough to eat.
Jumping down from his trusty plane,
Mike was greeted with warm, wide smiles.
But the ladies there all looked so tired –
They must have walked for miles.
'Greetings Mike, we knew you'd come
By following the star so bright.
The quickest way to reach us
Is to get here by MAF flight!
'Here's our offering brought to you
For the newborn baby King.
One of these chicks can save the lives
Of a family that's struggling.
'One egg each day is all you need
To make you big and strong.
So this tiny yellow, fluffy chick
Will help when the journey's long.
'Farewell Mike, from Timor-Leste,
We hope our gift will amaze.
And when you see the new-born king,
Please give our love and praise
'Now hurry on, friend, you must take off,
There's not a moment to lose.
With a chick in tow, you're good to go –
Go and spread the Christmas news!'
At the next airstrip not one or two,
But a huge group of local folk –
Came dancing up towards the plane,
Led by a funny looking bloke.
These joyful villagers were a colourful bunch,
Wearing costumes made of grass.
And at the front, Mike saw a gift
Being carried oh so fast!
'We greet you Mike from our highland tribe,'
Said the man who seemed in charge.
'You've landed in sunny Papua,
And our gift today's quite large!
'It squeals a lot and likes to eat'
So be careful where you sit.
It's a pig you see – a marvellous pig
For a King it's oh, so fit!'
Without instruction, the procession stopped
And revealed a squealing boar,
Who nestled inside Mike's open crate
As they firmly shut the door.
Mike had no chance to disagree,
As the people turned to leave.
So he climbed inside his MAF plane,
This adventure was hard to believe.
'Now hurry on, friend,' said the smiling man,
'There's not a moment to lose.
Watch that boar doesn't squash the chick –
Go and spread the Christmas news!'
Descending again so very soon,
Mike saw forests and mountain peak.
The land below was far away,
It's beauty quite unique.
Then all of a sudden, a tiny strip,
Of what was clearly grass,
Appeared out of thick rainforest trees:
A place to land at last!
Holding the chick nice and tight,
Mike jumped onto the ground.
More locals dressed in grassy skirts
Were dancing all around!
'Mike, you're here – we've walked for miles
To come and greet your plane.
We know you're flying following the star
To take gifts and praise His Name!
'Here's a bag of very small trees,
Which are of value to us all.
If you plant the lot in soil,
You'll have oranges growing tall!
'Now we send you off with our respect
To the babe in Bethlehem.
From the highlands of Papua New Guinea,
To this King who'll save all men.
'So hurry on, friend,' they waved and danced,
'There's not a moment to lose.
Plant these safe and watch them grow –
Go and spread the Christmas news!'
Mike wondered if he could really cope
With more creatures on this ride.
The plane swooped down towards dry land –
Australia, he spied!
Landing on a dusty strip,
Right beside the sea,
Mike realised just how hungry he was
And how he'd love a cup of tea!
But before our friend could look for food,
A tall man wandered near,
All dressed in white, he waved to Mike,
A dentist, it was clear.
'G'dday, Mike, and welcome to Oz –
Arnhem Land's the name of this place.
The people here are very remote,
They rarely see a new face.
'There's so few schools and hospitals,
I travel by MAF plane.
To check their teeth and make them smile,
Then MAF flies me home again.
'But today I'm here for a longer trip,
I've heard you'd be the one –
To take me on to see the King,
The one they call God's Son!
'I'd like to pay Him my respects
And help you on the way.
I've got some tea and sandwiches,
Let's take off without delay!
Jumping up into the plane,
Without a moment left to lose,
The dentist strapped in next to Mike,
'Let's go spread the Christmas news!'
Mike felt glad to have a friend
Who had brought along some food,
And was grateful for a helping hand;
Someone to share the Christmas mood!
Coming in to land again,
Just before it started to rain,
The runway here was nice and clear,
With plenty of room for Mike's plane.
'Here we are in Mareeba Airport,
Where MAF fixes some of its planes.
So the aircraft travel far and wide
To help those feeling pain.'
The dentist jumped from Mike's MAF plane,
And picked up a heavy box,
Which was handed to him not by a man
But by a friendly fox!
The fox exclaimed, 'Thanks for the lift,
I'm coming to see the King.
I don't mind sitting inside your crate,
Fixing aircraft is my thing!'
Without further ado, the fox bounced up
Strapping down his big tool box,
Never before had Mike imagined
He'd be talking to a fox!
'So what's your name?' Mike finally asked
As the fox joined their merry band –
'Foxtrot,' he said, 'I'm an engineer!'
And he proudly shook Mike's hand.
'Now let's go, friends,' Foxtrot cried,
'There's not a moment to lose.
We're back on course to Bethlehem –
Let's go spread the Christmas news!'
As Mike flew on, he wondered if,
This adventure was just a dream.
With crabs and pigs – and a talking fox,
What did it really mean?
The journey, it seemed, would be quite long,
So Mike had the time to ask
Some questions of his passengers;
Sharing tea from the dentist's flask.
'It's a mystery,' Foxtrot replied,
Nibbling a sandwiched filled with ham,
'But we heard the babe in Bethlehem
Is part of God's rescue plan.
'He's sent His Son to save the earth –
To end sadness and our pain –
And a big bright star would lead us there,
And we'd be flown inside a plane!'
At that moment, a runway appeared
As Mike thought about this 'plan',
And he suddenly saw the smiling face
Of a friendly Mexican man.
'Hola, amigo,' the young man cried,
But his face was rather sad,
Because a lady on a stretcher beside him
Was in pain that was really bad.
'We're glad you're here, she's very ill,
You must take her to the King!
The baby born in Bethlehem,
Will heal her from within.'
'Now fly, my friends,' the Mexican cried,
'There's not a moment to lose,
We know this patient will be healed –
Go, spread the Christmas news!'
Mike thought of God as he flew the plane
And so he began to pray.
He talked to the Lord as the ground appeared,
'Be with us Father, today.'
Landing again, so far from home,
Mike recognised a place he'd seen
On his TV set, as he'd watched the news,
A place where an earthquake had been.
'Haiti,' said the dentist,
'These people need your plane,
To help the ones who lost their homes
And must start over again.'
Walking towards them came a group
Carrying what looked like a tent,
And Mike noticed just how poor they were
And how much their gift had meant.
'A shelter for the baby Jesus,
We heard He has no home.
A stable's where this King is born,
With just a roof and hay alone.
'May this tent of ours be what He needs
As He travels far and wide,
Telling people of God's love,
With the Spirit as His guide.
'Now hurry on, Mike, you must take off,
There's not a moment to lose.
Add this tent to your cargo set –
Go, spread the Christmas news!'
Flying south, Mike knew he could trust
The star to lead the way,
To collect lots of lovely cargo gifts
To deliver on Christmas Day.
With others on board to help him out
Mainly keeping the creatures apart,
Mike was really enjoying the Christmas ride
And felt joy inside his heart!
'Look, we're landing,' Foxtrot said,
In a voice that was loud and strong,
And at the airstrip, they could hear,
Children burst into a song.
'Hola, Mike and Foxtrot too,
Bienviendo, welcome here!
We're the children of Ecuador
And we've come from far and near.
'To bring our gifts for the baby King,
We sent word from school to school,
As we know He might not have the chance
To learn just like us all.
'So here's some books, paper and pens,
Which the little King can use.
Growing up, He'll learn many things
As He tells of God's Good News!'
With that, the children added their gifts
To Mike's now half-full crate,
Then skipped along and gave a wave,
'Hurry off, now don't be late!
'Quick now, Mike, follow that star,
There's not a moment to lose.
These school supplies are fit for a King –
Go, spread the Christmas news!'
Leaving Ecuador far behind,
The little plane travelled east
Across rainforests and mountain tops,
It was beautiful to say the least!
In the back of the plane the pig rolled about,
In the plane's side he made a dent,
'I can fix it!' Foxtrot called.
With his goggles and tools, off he went.
While Foxtrot played with nuts and bolts,
The others spied some groups
Emerging from rainforest trees,
They were shouting joyous whoops!
'We've been waiting for you, pilot Mike,
Welcome here to Suriname.
We'd like to add to your cargo gifts,
And pray you'll all stay calm.
'Your plane will be fixed in no time at all,
But in the meantime, let us say,
That God is with you by His Word
And here's one to take today.'
Just as they loaded a Bible inside,
Foxtrot jumped up and cheered,
'Our little plane is as good as new,
The problem has disappeared.'
Shutting the door and starting to wave,
The locals gave a cheer,
'Farewell,' they cried, 'Now off you go,
And remember not to fear!
'The King is waiting, you must take off,
There's not a moment to lose.
May the Bible guide you as you fly –
Go, spread the Christmas news!'
Heading south, Mike decided
To look in the Bible and read.
He turned to a book called Isaiah –
The words were beautiful indeed.
'For unto us a Child is born,
Unto us a Son is given.'
Those verses are about our King,
Towards Him MAF's plane is driven.
The dentist agreed – he knew a lot –
What he said had made Mike pause.
Christmas now meant so much more
Than trees and Santa Claus.
Landing again in a jungle land,
Mike wondered what they'd find.
But this time just one boy was there.
Had he left his friends behind?
'Hello Mike, Foxtrot and friends,
I've been waiting for this day.
I'm coming on your journey too,
It's an honour, I must say!
'For I've been learning so very hard
To be a pilot, just like you.
I've come to see the King of kings
And be part of your air crew!'
Without waiting a moment more,
The boy put his bag in the crate
And took the seat by pilot Mike –
Another pair of hands would be great!
'Hurry now, Mike, we must take off,
There's not a moment to lose.
I'm your co-pilot from Brazil –
Let's go spread the Christmas news!'
From Brazil, the flight was long
And Mike felt his tummy rumble.
But thankfully his new co-pilot
Had brought food in from the jungle!
Munching fruit and strange red bugs,
They fed the animals too.
Mike was amazed the chick was safe
And the pig was now calm as they flew!
Finally, dry land again,
And an airstrip soon appears,
But it was so close to the water's edge
Mike quickly changed the gears!
His co-pilot checked the landing kit
And the pair were in control.
'I think this is Liberia,
Watch out for that great pot hole!'
Climbing out onto the landing strip,
Rain was in the air.
Mike was sad it looked so poor,
So he offered up a prayer.
Just then a little man appeared,
Carrying cards of many sizes.
They'd all been made so lovingly,
Covered in hearts and other surprises..
'Here's our love and greetings too,
From the people of this land.
We don't have much to give the King,
But these cards are made by hand!
'Now hurry on, Mike, please send our praise,
There's not a moment to lose.
I'll stow these cards safe in your crate –
Go, spread the Christmas news!'
Back in the air, Mike prayed again,
Because the patient was so sad.
She was crying softly in the back,
Her pain was very bad.
'We must land soon, we need some help,'
Mike heard the dentist say,.
And thankfully, below the star,
Appeared a small runway.
Landing gently beside a river,
A man came running near.
Praise God, he looked like a doctor,
So Mike gave a hearty cheer!
'Hello, sir!' shouted Mike,
'You must have heard my prayer.
We've got a patient who needs help,
She's given us quite a scare!'
'Greetings Mike, you're just in time,
Angola's the name of this land.
I've been sent to help you out,
And offer you a hand.
'If there's a space, I'll sit inside
Your special Christmas crate.
I'll treat the patient as we fly.
But there isn't time to wait!
'Let's go, Mike, we must take off,
There's not a moment to lose.
As a doctor, I will help her pain –
Let's go spread the Christmas news!'
Mike's plane was very nearly full,
So into the clouds they soared.
With a doctor now aboard,
The patient was restored!
Swooping down to land again,
The young pilot sat up front.
In the Democratic Republic of Congo,
He saw poachers on the hunt!
Down below, Mike sadly saw
Men dressed in brown and green,
All running fast with great big nets,
Chasing chimpanzees they'd seen!
'Shhh everyone,' whispered Foxtrot,
As he quietly opened the door.
'We can save a baby chimp,
Or is there room for more?'
As he said it, a lady appeared,
With a large load on her back.
And as she crouched beside the plane,
Mike saw it was jet black.
'I greet you with these tiny chimps,
Thank goodness that you came.
We've lost too many from this place,
The poachers are to blame!'
'These three babies will have a chance.
Can you take them to the King?
We've heard he's born in Bethlehem,
They are our gifts for Him!
'So hurry, Mike, now follow that star –
There's not a moment to lose.
Keep these babies nice and safe –
Go, spread the Christmas news!'
'We're landing again,' Foxtrot said,
And sure, enough they had.
This land was hilly and a bit more chilly,
For which, Mike felt quite glad.
Jumping out, Mike could see
A cloud of dust appear.
And towards them flew a flash of blue,
A quad bike in top gear!
'Goodness, that is going fast,'
Said the doctor, standing by.
'But what's the creature behind the wheel,
Its head is in the sky?'
The bike slowed down with squeaky brakes
And Mike began to laugh.
In the driver's seat was not a man,
But a smiling tall giraffe!
'Hello friends, I'm glad you're here,
Alpha is my name.
I've bought this bike to lend a hand
With the adventure in your plane!
'I've heard King Jesus has much to do
And has no car to get about.
So this quad bike from Lesotho
Is just the gift, no doubt.
'So hurry now, Mike, we must take off,
There's not a moment to lose.
I've packed my bike and found a seat –
Let's go and spread the Christmas news!'
Mike was enjoying this adventure,
And as the plane came in to land,
He wondered who they'd meet this time,
As he saw an island with white sand.
'We're in Madagascar, Mike.'
It seemed Foxtrot had been before.
'I hope there's room for someone else,
A fluffy friend's outside the door!'
Sure enough, something black and white
Jumped into his lap,
As he opened the door and waved hello
To a zookeeper in a cap.
'Greetings, Mike, this is Larry,
He's our friendly lemur pet.
We are sending him off to meet the King –
I'm James, the local vet.'
Before they flew, James fed and checked
The creatures in the crate.
He gave them food and water;
They were squawking as they ate!
'Now they've been fed, you'd better take off,
There's not a moment to lose.
We send our praises to the King –
Go, spread the Christmas news!'
Now it seemed the MAF plane
Was more like Noah's ark –
So many animals inside the crate;
A zoo for Mike to park!
Mike began to imagine the scene –
In Bethlehem, at the stable,
With all these creatures and far-flung gifts
Being as good as they were able!
The plane dived down towards dry land,
Back in Africa once more,
And up ahead, Mike began to dread,
'Is there room for any more?'
Sure enough, as they came to a stop,
A man was standing by'
Waving happily to all on board,
And pointing to the sky.
'Welcome friends, to Mozambique,
I hope you've got some room
For the baby elephant we rescued
From the poachers coming soon.
'She'd love to fly in your MAF plane,
As a present for the King.
She'll grow up strong, and work so hard,
And will His praises sing!'
With that the little elephant
Lifted her trunk in the air,
And sounded out a long, low blast,
As she sang without a care.
'Now off you go, my little one,
There's not a moment to lose.
You'll squeeze inside, now sit down tight –
Go, spread the Christmas news!'
'She's not so small, that elephant calf,'
Mike smiled and waved goodbye.
With her trunk on his lap, she nibbled his cap
And sang her tune in the sky!
They landed again in Africa,
This time in Tanzania.
And as Alpha jumped out, Mike heard him shout,
'Bethlehem is getting near!'
At the airstrip there was quite a crowd,
Standing in a line,
Waiting to talk to a doctor and nurse
Who were seeing them one at a time.
'Hello Alpha, Foxtrot and Mike,
You're right, the King is near.
Take this vaccination box
To kill the diseases we fear.
'You see, in places like Bethlehem
That are poor like Tanzania,
People get sick and die too young,
So we've got medicine for them here.'
The doctor opened the door to add
The medicine the people gave
And Mike was glad to have on board
Some vaccines that could save.
'Farewell, Mike, you must take off,
There's not a moment to lose.
Take these vaccines to help the King,
And go spread the Christmas news!'
Their next stop was an African land
Where safari lions roar.
And down below, Mike could see
A village that looked quite poor.
Looking around, Mike heard a sound,
Coming from the villagers' homes.
And towards him dancers dressed in red
Picked their way across the stones.
'Greetings, Mike, we hail the King,'
Were their words of happy song.
'We've bought our gifts for your big crate,
We've been waiting for so long!
'To praise God's Son in Bethlehem,
Here's our present from this land.
Beaded bracelets and a necklace too –
We've made them all by hand!
'We send our praise from Kenya.
We'll sing you on your way.
God bless you as you fly along
Before you reach Him on Christmas Day!
'Now hurry along, you're nearly there,
There's not a moment to lose.
Take our jewellery to the King,
Go spread the Christmas news!'
Landing soon in a place nearby,
Uganda to be precise,
Mike saw an airstrip below him
Alongside fields of rice.
Near the runway stood a boy,
With a huge smile on his face.
He raced towards the landing spot,
Pushing a wheelchair at quite a pace!
'Hello Mike, and Alpha too,
I'm glad you all stopped here.
I'd like to send a gift for God;
Something that I've held dear!
'This chair helped me to get about,
But it's one I need no more.
For my legs have healed and now I walk,
Like I never did before!
'So take these wheels to Bethlehem,
Where someone may have need.
Anyone sitting in this chair
Can be pushed along at speed!
'Now hurry on, Mike, go follow that star,
There's not a moment to lose – This wheelchair can help someone in need
Go, spread the Christmas news!'
Flying north above a river,
Mike entered South Sudan –
A place where war had bruised the land,
And left people fleeing harm.
The airstrip was so very remote,
Near swampland and deep bog.
But coming towards them was a man
And beside him walked a dog.
'Another creature?' Mike thought out loud,
There seemed to be no room.
The crate was full of everyone's gifts –
This adventure must end soon!
'Welcome here to South Sudan,
Your journey's end is near.
I have a puppy who needs a home,
She was lost and filled with fear!
'You see, her owners ran away
When their house began to burn,
Because there's war and it's just not safe
For the locals to return.
'So will you take her? She's no one else.
And don't forget to pray
For the people escaping South Sudan,
That they'll find true peace one day.
'We have heard that a holy child
Will be born in a land afar.
We pray His birth will heal our world.
Now go follow that Christmas star!
'Hurry on, Mike, you're almost there,
There's not a moment to lose.
Take this puppy to see the King –
Go, spread the Christmas news!'
The plane took off, and night drew near,
The horizon all aglow.
But there seemed to be just one more stop,
The place was down below.
A dusty desert with deep, white sand
Was where the plane touched down.
Their final gift for Bethlehem
Lay in the nearby town.
A man walked close, and dragged a crate
Of bottles filled with drink.
And Mike realised that his thirst was deep,
'I need some water, I think!'
'Greetings friends, welcome to Chad,
The last stop on your trip.
We send you on with fresh, cool water.
Be restored with every drip!
'The Jesus child is born this night,
And we know you've travelled far,
To gather gifts for Bethlehem,
Led by the Christmas star.
'When you find Him, give our praise,
And tell this story far and wide,
That God's own Son is here on earth.
He has come to be our guide.
'Though you drink now, you'll thirst once more,
But Jesus can help you then.
He'll give you water for eternal life,
And you'll never thirst again!'
'Now off you fly, you must take off,
The night is drawing in.
Soon you'll see it's Christmas Day,
And the party can begin!'
Find out how the story ends by opening the window for day 25, from Christmas Day onwards.
The landlocked nation of Chad is bordered by Libya to the north, Sudan to the east, Central African Republic to the south and Cameroon, Nigeria and Niger to the west.
It's hard to get Christmas trees in Chad because it's so dry, so one of our families made one out of the pallets they brought containing their things. Ten out of ten for creativity! Some people sit down to a dish of camel meat prepared with peanuts, eaten with bread. Tasty, but chewy!
The word 'Chad' actually means 'lake' in one of the country's traditional languages. The Europeans who 'discovered' Chad named it after the enormous Lake Chad which was one of the first things they came across. The funny thing is that 50% of Chad is covered by the Sahara Desert – the largest sand desert in the world, so they obviously didn't travel very far!
It's pretty hot today, at 33°C, which isn't surprising on the edge of the desert – but it's not the hottest time of the year. Temperatures can reach into the high 40s during April and May.
It was a beautiful sunny morning when Becki took off in her little three-seater plane. The sky was blue and far below the people began to look like ants before they disappeared completely as the plane began to climb.
The landing at Becki's destination was bumpier than usual, and when she jumped out of her plane she realised why – one of the tyres was completely flat! With a bit of effort, Becki pumped the tyre back up. She heard a hissing sound as the tyre began to deflate again – oh, no!
Becki phoned to try to find an aircraft maintenance engineer who could help change the tyre, but there was no one available. Next, she tried to find a plane to fly her home – but again, no one was able to come. Becki couldn't stay there all by herself!
So she jumped in the car for her long drive home. She saw lots of animals such as horses, cows, goats and dogs through the car window.
She watched as people drove herds of camels like those in the Christmas story. She saw many people riding on donkeys, which made her think of Mary and Joseph and their journey to Bethlehem. It was interesting to see how people get around in Chad when they don't have a plane!
Finally, the car pulled up at Becki's house – she was home! Bethan and Luke ran to meet mummy and welcome her with hugs! Her long journey had actually turned out to be a bit of a 'safari', with lots of interesting things to see.
Becki flew back to Roukoum a few days later in another MAF plane. This time, instead of passengers, she brought an engineer, a replacement wheel and some extra fuel! When the plane was finally fixed, Becki took off again into the bright blue sky!
Want a chance to win a prize for your colouring in skills? List all the countries we have visited this Advent in the correct order. Then colour in the design below. Ask an adult to take a picture of it when you've finished and post the photo to the MAF UK Facebook or Twitter page using '#mafadvent' for your chance to win!


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National Communications Commission (NCC) Chairperson Howard Shyr (石世豪) yesterday denied that the proposed media anti-monopolization act was designed to protect specific media groups, adding that it was not meant to replace the abolished Publication Act (出版法).
Shyr's statement came after Want Want China Times Group published a full-page advertisement on page one of the Chinese-language China Times, which is part of the Want China Times Group, alleging that the proposed legislation favors large media groups such as Liberty Times Group (owner of the Taipei Times) and Fubon Group.
The ad said the proposed act was aimed at preventing Want Want China Times from acquiring the cable TV systems owned by China Network Systems or investing in Next Media Group.
"The act was produced under false pretenses," Want Want said in the ad. "It expands the authority of the National Communications Commission and intends to 'restore' the Publication Act, which would allow the government to oppress and restrict freedom of speech."
Want Want said the proposed act, if passed, should be applied retrospectively, adding that it should also ban financial groups from investing in media outlets and apply to broadcasting media, as well as telecoms and Internet service providers.
Shyr said the commission had not tailored the proposed act to fit the needs of any specific groups.
Nor was the version of the act that has passed preliminary review at the legislature designed to target any group or allow any group to evade its responsibility to follow regulations, he said.
"There are different ways to express opinions, but rarely do I see a media group publishing its opinions using such a large font. The phenomenon has appeared in all the newspapers in this media group," Shyr said.
"We respect different opinions, but we believe that the newspapers should act as watchmen for the public. At least that is what I taught my journalism students," he said.
Shyr said there was no intent to resurrect the Publication Act, adding that he took issue with Want Want's use of the word "restoring" (復辟) in expressing its opinion.
"Restoring is generally used when you describe the restoration of a dethroned monarch. It is not used to describe the resurrection of a law," he said.
"The proposed act only focuses on the regulation of national newspapers, particularly when they are integrated with one another," the commission chairman said.
"The regulations in the [proposed] act would not affect them [Want Want] if they were not involved in any newspaper integration," he said.
The act does not add new regulations to the obligation of print media to make corrections and replies, Shyr said.
He said there was a need for legislation to regulate integrations of media outlets. Similar legislation already exists in other democracies, he said, and there is an urgent need to establish such a system in Taiwan.
While the version of the proposed act passed at the Legislative Yuan last month set clear restrictions on integration among certain types of media outlets and on the financial institutions investing in media outlets, Shyr said the commission may have problems using market share to regulate mergers of media outlets.
"The market share of a media outlet changes constantly, even daily" he said.
"Maybe a media outlet did not hit the market share ceiling in the [proposed] act when it plans a merger with another media outlet, but what if it hits the ceiling after the merger? Can an investor fully know in advance what the market share is? This might be difficult," he said.


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A Glamorous Rooftop Wedding at the EPIC Hotel in Miami, Florida
A glamorous, all-white celebration with pops of pink brought Cristina Rodriguez (28 and an office manager) and Omar Armenteros's (40 and an IT company owner) chic wedding vision to life. "Our theme was romantic, modern glamour," Cristina says. "I wanted the room to feel glamorous with elegant, clean lines and gorgeous floral arrangements." The newlyweds kicked off the evening by saying "I do" on the 14th floor pool deck under a clear acrylic arbor decorated with hydrangeas and orchids. Cristina brought the drama for her walk down the aisle with a full train and 13-foot veil. After the ceremony, guests filed inside, where a tree strung with escort cards and surrounded by rose petals, floating candles and lanterns greeted them by the reception entrance. Mirror-topped tables reflected the candlelight from mercury glass votives, and low arrangements of hydrangeas, transparent chargers and soft pink uplighting created a luxe atmosphere. Before hitting the dance floor, the newlyweds and their families and friends sat down to a decadent dinner of beef tenderloin and truffle mashed potatoes followed by a five-tier chocolate and marble cake.


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To say I love perfume would be an understatement. For me, it's a must. A fabulous fragrance is like the icing on a cake. It's the final touch. Perfume exudes luxury, but for a fraction of the cost. After one spritz of my favorite eau de toilette (as the French would say) I'm instantly elevated–feeling feminine and downright divine.
I love to change up my perfume selections based on the season. In cooler months, I prefer sophisticated scents that are more saturated. Whether it's a hint of musk, a dash of lily, or a trace of jasmine, I like to think my fall and winter perfumes are a tad more elegant. For fall, I love Miss Dior Cherie. And for winter, Issey Miyake is my go-to. Both scents have a lot more body compared to all of the lighter fragrances I usually wear during the spring and summer season.
What's your fall/winter scent?
XO Lauren
P.S. Don't forget to share your tips on seasonal perfume in the Forum.


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Find out when the website won't be available and for how
Partners and organisations we work with.
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Palačinky (Czech Pancakes-Crepes)
4 1/3 cups almond or soy milk
4 cups all-purpose flour
2 tsp. baking powder
4 tsp. corn starch
3 Tbs sugar
powdered sugar topping (optional)
Filling: Jam, Apple or Prune Butter or Chocolate-Hazelnut spread
In a blender, mix all the ingredients together until smooth, adding more milk if the batter is too thick.
Heat a large nonstick frying pan over medium-hight heat. Coat the pan with cooking spray. Pour a thin layer of batter into the center of the pan, holding the pan firmly and tilting the pan in circular motion so the batter spreads in a thin layer across the bottom of the pan. Cook until the top is dry and flip to cook the other side. Cook on both sides until golden brown. Spread with filling of your choice and roll it up. You can sprinkle them with powdered sugar. Serve Palačinky warm or cold.


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Can you imagine stockings that grow, and Grow, and GROW? My Grandmother knitted Christmas stockings for all of her grandchildren. All 9 of them had Santa faces knitted into the front of the stocking and an ornament knitted into the back. Just hanging, they are about 16 inches long and about 10 inches around.
However!!!! Think of how a knit sweater can stretch. Now, put lots of things into a knit stocking: apples, an orange, nuts in shells, and a few small wrapped gifts.
After Santa arrived, the stockings were now about 30 inches long and about 18 inches around.


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Sandra Bullock knows how to pick herself up and dust herself off, and now she's urging fans to pitch in and clean up the Gulf Coast.
Bullock, who adopted her son from New Orleans and now lives in Texas, is one of several stars taking part in Restore the Gulf's "Be the One" campaign. Also pitching in are fellow actors Blake Lively and John Goodman, Indianapolis Colts quarterback Peyton Manning, chef Emeril Lagasse and musicians Dave Matthews and Lenny Kravitz.
"What can you offer?" Bullock asks in the PSA, standing along the coast. "Your voice. Speak up."
The campaign was started by the Women of the Storm, a non-partisan alliance of Louisiana women, to rally support for the cleanup.


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Old Testament
These texts, of which there are 39, were mostly written down in Hebrew Ezra and Daniel had elements in Aramaic. The oldest texts have oral traditions running back in time as far as 1000 BCE. the youngest book, Daniel, was written down 165 BCE.
The selection of texts was decided upon at the Synod in Jamnia in 90 CE, but this was more the final stage of a process that had been going on for a couple of centuries among Jewish scholars.


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Element Case Solace iPhone 5s Case Review/
High-end case maker Element Case is known to make the headlines each time it produces a new case, and of course it means that we're all in for a one sweet treat that is sure to leave behind a few cavities in the form of a significant dent in the wallet department. But this time things have changed since we reviewed the hybrid Sector 5 bumper turned case. What once were lavish and over engineered case offerings with a closely guarded bulgy price tag, are now a bit more down to earth and a lot more sensible than ever before.
The perfect example is Element Case's new Solace case for the iPhone 5s and iPhone 5, the company's latest premium case with a lethal modern interpretation of the pricy Ronin case, but with a price that's somewhat easier to swallow. The Solace case features a hybrid design with svelte styling and bits of high-grade materials of which Element Case is best known for - machined anodized aluminum alloy. We'll tell you more about it in our full review after the break!Read More


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Performance usually improves with practice, but not if training is a rotten time. A new study shows that people's ability to identify noises declines when the sounds are paired with putrid smells—a phenomenon that may allow our brain to detect danger more quickly.
In a study published in May in Nature Neuroscience, neurobiologist Rony Paz of the Weizmann Institute of Science in Rehovot, Israel, and his colleagues exposed volunteers to auditory tones presented with no other stimuli or immediately followed by a rancid or fragrant odor delivered through a nose mask.
After this training session, the subjects were played a series of tone pairs—notes of very similar or identical frequencies—and asked whether the tones in each pair were the same or different. The subjects became better at distinguishing tones similar to those that had been presented alone or with a pleasant scent. But their ability to discriminate tones resembling those linked to a foul stench worsened—an effect that persisted one day later.
Such sensory confusion could be an adaptation that allows our defenses to rapidly mobilize. "This likely made sense in our evolutionary past," Paz says. "If you've previously heard the sound of a lion attacking, your survival might depend on a similar noise sounding the same to you."


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RICHMOND, Va. – Being a Division I college athlete has a lot of perks. Sometimes those perks come off the field in the reward of doing something special for somebody else.
Some VCU Baseball players had the chance to do just that earlier this month. Juniors Ryan Morrison, Joey Cujas, Seth Greene, and graduate assistant Seth Cutler-Voltz visited Mitchell Lyne at the VCU Medical Center, a few days after Lyne had a kidney transplant.
Greene is friends with Lyne's older brother, and he thought that a visit from a few baseball players would help lift his spirits. The group of student-athletes and Lyne had a chance to talk about sports, and Lyne's beloved Yankees.
Lyne is a recent graduate of Mills Godwin High School, and has been battling renal failure since he was eight years old. He has undergone three kidney transplants since then. He was released from the hospital after his most recent transplant on the Aug. 18.
"It was great to meet Mitchell, and to be able to spend some quality time with him," said Cutler-Voltz. "He is a really good person going through a tough time. We just wanted him to know that VCU Baseball and VCU Athletics are on his side, and will do anything we can to help."
To find out more information about Mitchell's fight and his story visit savemitchell.com.


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January 21, 2012, 8:48 am
Sundance A.M.
As the avalanche control booms pierce the morning air, folk crowd the city shuttles for the first screenings of the day. Mad Moviegoer heads to the Park City high school theater aka Eccles for "Celeste and Jesse" forever. Rashida Jones stars and also cowrote the script. Talented Lee Toland Krieger directed. His mean but measured "The Vicious Kind" played the Starz Denver Film Fest in 2009. Funny guy Andy Shamberg also stars.
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Letter with ricin sent to Wicker
An envelope sent to the Washington, D.C., office of Sen. Roger Wicker (R-Miss.) included a substance that has tested positive for the toxic substance ricin.
The Senate mail facility on Tuesday notified the U.S. Capitol Police that it had received an envelope containing "a white granular substance," according to a release. The envelope "was immediately quarantined" at the off-site facility, and Capitol Police hazardous material personnel responded.
Story Continued Below
"Preliminary tests indicate the substance found was Ricin," said the police statement, which was released late Tuesday night. "The material is being forwarded to an accredited laboratory for further analysis."
( PHOTOS: Roger Wicker's career)
The Capitol Police says it is partnering with the FBI for an "ongoing investigation." The statement added that the Capitol complex has not been affected.
The U.S. Senate mail facility is currently closed for more testing — all mail bound for Capitol Hill is now being directed through a U.S. House facility.
The letter was postmarked Memphis, Tenn., and had no suspicious markings or return address, according to a message sent to congressional staffers by Senate Sergeant at Arms Terrance Gainer. Gainer indicated that the Senate mail facility would be closed for two to three days "while testing and the law enforcement investigation continues."
( Also on POLITICO: Napolitano: No sign of 'broader plot')
Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.) said members were briefed that the substance had been found in a letter and that a suspect has been identified.
McCaskill said the letter came from an individual who frequently writes to lawmakers. She wouldn't identify the person but confirmed officials were investigating someone.
McCaskill said state offices have been told what to look for if there are more letters containing the toxic substance.
( Also on POLITICO: What is ricin?)
The Senate went into recess shortly after 6 p.m. Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano and FBI Director Robert Mueller began briefing senators shortly afterward about the incident. A Homeland Security official said that the briefing was intended to address cybersecurity but that the subject pivoted after the ricin substance was discovered.
All congressional mail is screened ever since Capitol Hill-bound letters laced with anthrax were discovered in October 2001, which contributed to the death of five people and infected 17 more. Senate offices were closed for several days in 2004 when ricin was found in the offices of then-Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (R-Tenn.).


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I am searching for a pattern where I can use the John Deere Fabric of tractors & etc, to make my retired John Deere & Farmer Husband a quilt. (B-4 we both pass), I have saved up stash of Deere Fabric, and my husband has purchased the EQ 6 & 7 programs where I can incorporate all my fabric into a pattern I am not to incline to make a pattern all on my own so it will be a "Piece Talk" in the future by own son and his family.
I'll be watching for suggestions, Thank you for your input in advance.
Granny Quilter