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February 12, 2014
US Economy: Stealth Inflationary Pressures Are Not Yet Priced Into Markets
In countries where central banks are printing money, such as the US, UK, eurozone, and Japan, deflation is the fear. On the other hand, inflation is high in countries where central banks have followed more traditional policies, like Brazil (official inflation 5.9%), India (11.5%), Indonesia (8.4%), and Turkey (7.4%). One explanation is the carry trade. Because the central banks of the developed world promised low rates for the long term, the liquidity created by those central banks found its way into the economies of the emerging markets (EM) (read: borrow at low interest rates, invest at high ones). Unfortunately, most of those funds did not find their way into capital investment in those markets, but was instead used for consumption, which has played havoc with EM trade balances. When the demand side (usually measured by GDP) outstrips the supply side (potential GDP), inflation occurs. Now that the bubble in EM countries, caused by excess liquidity in the developed world, is starting to burst — investors no longer believe the carry trade will last much longer — what will become of all of that liquidity?
On February 4, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), a supposed non-partisan government agency, released a shocking report, "The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2014 to 2024," projecting that over the next 10 years the Affordable Care Act, commonly referred to as Obamacare, would reduce future employment rolls by more than 2.3 million. Overlooked in that report is the CBO's projection that "potential" GDP in the US will be much slower over the next 10-year period than it has averaged since 1950; this in an age of innovation where rapid change is considered normal. The CBO says that "changes in people's economic incentives caused by federal tax and spending policies set in current law are expected to reduce the number of hours worked…" and "that estimate largely reflects changes in labor hours worked owing to the ACA [Affordable Care Act]."
In the US, if the current gap between real GDP and potential GDP closes (and the so-called "slack" in the economy disappears as the CBO projects it will), then, just like in the EMs, any growth on the demand side of GDP above potential GDP, ends up, by definition, as inflation.
There are a many measures that indicate that the economy is much closer to its potential than is generally assumed. One such measure is the fact that, despite record levels of cash flow (used mainly for stock buybacks or dividends), for the past five years, corporations have not reinvested in their plant and equipment. According to David Rosenberg (Gluskin-Sheff), the average age of the capital stock in the US is almost 22 years, an average not seen since 1958. Given the fact that the cost of capital is near an all-time low, there is something holding back such investment. Rosenberg speculates that it is likely found in overregulation and the uncertainty regarding tax policy. An old and aging capital stock implies a much lower growth rate of potential GDP than in the past when the capital stock was younger.
The second issue is the labor force. While the December and January Establishment Survey disappointed the markets (December's survey reported 75,000 jobs added; January saw a gain of 113,000), nobody is talking about the Household Survey. This is the survey from which the "official" unemployment rate is calculated. While more volatile that the Establishment Survey, the Household Survey showed gains of 143,000 jobs in December and a whopping 638,000 in January. When combined with other surveys (NFIB) which show that 23% of small businesses have at least one open position that they cannot fill (a six-year high according to Rosenberg), and that there is a sustained uptrend in voluntary quits, it would appear that the Establishment Survey is the outlier and that the labor market is quite tight.
If, indeed, the CBO is correct and potential GDP growth will slow over the next 10 years due to Obamacare, a tight labor market in conjunction with old capital stock will only exacerbate that situation. Since the financial crisis, the unemployment rate has fallen from 10.0% in October '09 to 6.6% in January '14, a 3.4 percentage point decline. During that period of time, the annual GDP growth rate has been about 2.4%. After the recession of the '90s, to get the unemployment rate to fall 3.4 percentage points (from 7.8% to 4.4%), it took an annualized GDP growth rate of 3.7%. The lower GDP growth required to reduce the unemployment rate implies that the gap between actual and potential GDP is either small or nonexistent.
The aging of the capital stock, lack of new investment, and the tightening labor market indicate that resources are in short supply, which means that there is a strong probability that any semblance of robust economic growth will be accompanied by inflation. Adding to such pressure is the liquidity sloshing around the EM world. If it finds its way home, as appears to be happening, unless much of it goes into new capital formation (which is unlikely given the current regulatory and tax regimes), we are likely to see growing inflationary pressures much sooner than is currently priced into the financial markets.
January 27, 2014
What's the Safest Way to Hedge Against Inflation With Gold?
Until inflation becomes recognized, the investor holding gold as a hedge must have both patience and the ability to hold for an extended period.
Historically, the price of gold protected the purchasing power of the currency invested in it, as the price rose in some reasonable correlation with existing or expected inflation of that currency. But today, the price of gold is set in a speculative market where traders and hedge fund managers make bets, and little or no attention is paid to gold's traditional role. (See the first part of this article, Why Gold Prices Dropped in 2013.) According to John Hathaway of Tocqueville.com, in 2010, the physical gold market consisted of 121 million ounces. With a growth rate of about 1.5% per year, there are currently about 127 million ounces in existence, as of Hathaway's writing. Using futures and options data, and OTC clearing data from the London Bullion Market Association, Hathaway calculates that the paper gold market is 92 times that of the underlying physical market. If each investor in a paper gold ounce believes it is backed by an ounce of physical gold, then each physical gold ounce must have been loaned or hypothecated, on average, 92 times. If everyone decided that they wanted physical possession, which of the 92 paper gold ounce owners really owns the physical metal?
That, of course, explains why it took so long (17 months) for the London banks to deliver the physical gold that Hugo Chavez's Venezuela demanded. They either didn't have it and had to purchase it in the open market, or they had to unwind trades where the gold was loaned or pledged as collateral, or both. As for the seven years that it will take for the US Fed to deliver Germany its gold, the only conclusion can be that the web of hypothecation must be long and complex.
Let's now consider the characteristics of the London financial markets, where gold's price is fixed twice each day. Nearly every well-known financial calamity over the past 20 years has originated from London offices of major financial corporations. That's because in the UK, financial institutions have little regulatory oversight. Just think about JPMorgan's (NYSE:JPM) $6+ billion 2012 loss from its London trading office. We learned from the MF Global (OTCMKTS:MFGLQ) fiasco that client assets can be hypothecated and re-hypothecated an infinite number of times, and that there are no customer protection rules. If you have been wondering what happened to Jon Corzine's (MF Global's CEO) clients' funds, you now have a pretty good idea.
Recently, we've seen major UK financial institutions pay hefty fines for manipulating certain commodity prices and for fixing the price of LIBOR, a short-term rate that plays a key role in the world's financial markets. Apparently, the illegal activity had been going on for years. There are five London banks that control the two daily London gold price fixes. Given the known shenanigans of the London banks regarding LIBOR and other commodities, and the infinite re-hypothecation allowed, how much confidence should we have that the daily gold price-fixing is impartial, that in a crisis or panic the hypothecations can be unwound with every paper claim on gold made whole, or, in fact, that some of the underlying gold even exists in the vaults? As Hathaway says, "It would be hard to imagine that the culture of [London] did not extend to gold."
There has been a great deal of political angst by Bernanke and Co. over the demand by some members of Congress for a Fed audit, and great political maneuvering to avoid it. Some commentators, like John Williams (Shadowstats.com), believe that the Fed and government officials disdain rising gold prices because that suggests that the government and the Fed are not doing their jobs in maintaining price stability. Hence, Williams believes that heavy selling in 2013 was an orchestrated government intervention. In his January 8, 2014 issue of Hyperinflation 2014 – The End Game Begins, Williams says, "A number of times, very large sell-orders from one customer were placed in the global markets before the open of US trading. For someone looking to move out of gold, orderly sales would make the most sense in terms of getting the best prices. Instead, these actions were designed to pummel the gold markets, and they did."
Remember what happened to credit default swaps, issued by AIG (NYSE:AIG), just five years ago? Remember what happened to AAA-rated mortgage-backed securities that turned out to have a lot of sub-prime loans? Could something like that happen to the paper gold market?
If it's discovered that some of the underlying gold has disappeared from the vaults, or in a panic the competing hypothecations for the underlying gold ounces tie up the assets in a long-term court battle, or, as in the case of General Motor's (NYSE:GM) senior secured bondholders and some depositors in Cypriot banks, it becomes politically correct to single out a class to bear losses, some holders of paper gold could be out of luck. It might be very painful one day to wake up to find that the paper gold investment you thought you had turns out to have not been collateralized.
So, what should gold investors do?
First, understand the difference between hedging and speculating. If it is your intent to hedge against an inflation that you believe will inevitably come due to current worldwide monetary- and fiscal-policy excesses, then the systematic purchase of gold, like mutual fund dollar-cost averaging, is a good practice.
In what form should you hold your precious metal assets? What about the ETFs traded on the exchanges? If you want to keep the gold in your brokerage account, there are some funds or ETFs that say that they hold bullion in a vault and do not hypothecate it. You need to do careful research to make sure this is the case and know if the paper you hold is convertible into the underlying asset. Gold mining stocks are another way, since the gold is there in the ground. Unfortunately, the typical gold mining company continuously dilutes shareholders with new rounds of equity offerings as they continue their search for the "mother lode." So, research here is also essential.
The safest way, of course, is to hold the gold yourself, i.e., take physical possession and put it into a safety deposit box or in your own safe. Many Americans are doing this, but the Chinese and Asians are way out ahead in this area. To do this you need to find a reputable gold or coin shop that will sell to you for a reasonable commission, say 3-4%.
Today's gold investors must also understand that the price of gold is currently a 100% function of hedge fund speculation. In the future, as inflation becomes recognized, this may change, but until it does, the investor holding gold as a hedge must have both patience and the ability to hold for an extended period — oh yes, and the ironclad belief that the laws of economics haven't changed, i.e., that "this time is different" is a lot of bunk.
January 14, 2014
Why Gold Prices Dropped in 2013
Most seasoned investors have some allocation to precious metals in their portfolios, most often gold. They believe that such an allocation protects them, as it is a hedge, or an insurance policy, against the proliferation of paper (fiat) money by the world's largest central banks. Fiat money is not backed by real physical assets. In concept, I agree with this sentiment. Most investors who invest in precious metals ETFs, such as the SPDR Gold Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:GLD), through the supposedly regulated stock exchanges ("paper gold") believe that they actually have a hedge against future inflation. In what follows, I will try to explain why they may not, and why their investments in paper gold may just be speculation.
On February 5, 1981, then Fed Chairman Paul Volcker said that the Fed had made a "commitment to a monetary policy consistent with reducing inflation…" Contrast that with the statement of outgoing Fed Chairman Bernanke on December 18, 2013: "We are very committed to making sure that inflation does not stay too low…"
During 2013, the price of gold fell more than 28% (from $165.17/oz. to $118.36/oz.) despite the fact that other assets like real estate and equities each rose at double-digit rates. It is perplexing that the price of the hedge against inflation is falling in the face of a money-printing orgy at all of the world's major central banks. Despite the fact that these central banks have fought the inflation scourge for half of a century, suddenly they have all adopted policies that espouse inflation as something desirable. The fall in the price of gold is even more perplexing because there are reports of record demand for physical gold, especially in Asia, and that some of the mints can't keep up with the demand for standardized product. In his year-end missive, John Hathaway of Tocqueville.com says that "the manager of one of the largest Swiss refiners stated that after almost doubling capacity this year, 'they put on three shifts, they're working 24 hours a day…and every time [we] think it's going to slow down, [we] get more orders…70% of the kilo bar fabrication is going to China.'"
One would also think that the price of gold should be rising because of a growing loss of confidence in fiat currencies. Here are some indicators:
The growing interest in Bitcoin as an alternative to government-issued currencies. One should ask, why did the price of Bitcoin rise from $13.51 on December 31, 2012 to $754.76 on December 30, 2013 while the price of gold fell? As you will see later in this essay, the answer lies in leverage. The gold market is leveraged; Bitcoin is not (at least, not yet).
The volatility that the Fed has caused in emerging market economies by flooding the world with dollars at zero interest is another reason the price of gold should be rising. The Fed's announced zero-rate policy with a time horizon caused huge capital flows into emerging market economies by hedge funds looking for yield. The inflows caused disruption to the immature financial systems in those emerging markets. And then, with the utterance of a single word, "tapering," all of the hedge funds headed for the exits at once. The Indian rupee, for example, which was trading around 53 rupees/dollar in May 2013, fell to 69 near the end of August, a 30% loss of value. Such behavior has stirred up new interest on the part of major international players (China, Russia) to have an alternative to the dollar as the world's reserve currency. Don't dismiss this as political posturing. It is based on irresponsible Fed policy in its role as the caretaker of the world's reserve currency. As the world moves toward an alternative reserve currency, the dollar will weaken significantly relative to other currencies, and, theoretically, to gold (and even Bitcoin).
The loss of confidence on the part of some sovereign nations that the gold they have stored in foreign bank vaults is safe. Two examples immediately come to mind: Venezuela and Germany. In August of 2011, the President of Venezuela, Hugo Chavez, demanded that the London bullion banks that were holding Venezuela's gold ship it to Caracas. (Again, don't dismiss this as political posturing.) Despite the fact that the shipment could have been carried on a single cargo plane, it took until late January 2012 (17 months), for the London banks to completely comply. One should wonder why. Then, the German Bundesbank asked for an audit of its gold holdings at the Fed. One knows how the Fed has resisted audits from Congress, so why should a request from a German bank meet with any different result? After political escalation, a German minister was permitted to see a room full of gold at the New York Fed. In early 2013, the Bundesbank publicly announced that its intent was to repatriate its gold from the vaults in Paris, London, and New York. We have now learned that it will take seven years for the New York Fed to ship the gold earmarked as belonging to Germany in the Fed's vaults. One should wonder why such a long delay.
In the face of all of this — unparalleled money printing, the rise in the prices of real estate and equities in 2013, and the creeping suspicions regarding the real value of fiat currencies — how is it that the price of gold fell 28% in 2013? The answer lies in leverage and hypothecation, the modus operandi of Wall Street, London, and financiers worldwide. The paper gold market, the one that trades the ETFs such as the SPDR Gold Trust, is 92 times bigger than the physical supply of gold according to Tocqueville's John Hathaway. Think about that. It means that each physical ounce of gold that actually exists has been loaned, pledged, and re-loaned 92 times on average. Each holder in the paper gold market thinks that the ounce of paper gold held in the brokerage account is backed by an ounce of real gold. But there are, on average, 92 others who apparently have a claim on the same real, physical ounce.
The answer to the question, why did gold fall 28% in 2013 when, theoretically, it should have risen, is that Wall Street, London, and hedge funds have turned the paper gold market into a market of speculation, where the price rises or falls, not based on the purchasing power of currencies (the hedging characteristic of gold), but on such things as whether or not the Fed will taper, what impact Iranian nuclear talks will have on oil flows, if the interest rates in the eurozone periphery are likely to rise or fall, etc.
In my next article, I will explain how all of this occurred, and what investors who want to hedge and not speculate should do.
Robert Barone (Ph.D., economics, Georgetown University) is a principal of Universal Value Advisors, Reno, a registered investment adviser. Barone is a former director of the Federal Home Loan Bank of San Francisco and is currently a director of Allied Mineral Products, Columbus, Ohio, AAA Northern California, Nevada, Utah Auto Club, and the associated AAA Insurance Co., where he chairs the investment committee. Barone or the professionals at UVA (Joshua Barone, Andrea Knapp and Marvin Grulli) are available to discuss client investment needs.
Call them at 775-284-7778.
Statistics and other information have been compiled from various sources. Universal Value Advisors believes the facts and information to be accurate and credible but makes no guarantee to the complete accuracy of this information.
December 27, 2013
Part II: The Long-Term Outlook – Even a Strong Economy Doesn't Change the Ultimate Outcome
If you've read Part I of this year end outlook, you know that it is our view that the underlying private sector is healthy and, except for the fact that the real rate of inflation is much faster than the 'official' rate, we could well have a short period of prosperity.
Unfortunately, our long-term outlook is not as sanguine as our short-term view. The eventual recognition of the inflation issue, the dollar's role as the world's reserve currency, the bloated Fed balance sheet and the resulting excess bank reserves, and the freight train of unfunded liabilities and its impact on the debt and deficit are issues that have large negative long-term consequences. Remember, the long-term unfolds slowly, and we don't expect that we will wake up one day to find that all has changed. Still, the changes discussed below could very well take place over the next decade, and investors need to be prepared.
The Dollar as the Reserve Currency
The dollar is currently the world's reserve currency. Most world trade takes place in dollars, even if no American entity is involved. Because world trade has rapidly expanded over the past 20 years, more dollars have been needed than those required for the U.S. economy alone. As a result, the U.S. has been able to run large deficits without any apparent significant impact on the dollar's value relative to other major currencies. Any other country that runs a large deficit relative to their GDP suffers significant currency devaluation. Current policy in Japan is a prime example. A weakening dollar has implications for the prices of hard assets.
In addition, the Fed's policy of Quantitative Easing (essentially money printing) has disrupted emerging market economies. Zero rates and money creation caused hedge fund managers to leverage at low rates and move large volumes of money offshore to emerging nations where interest rates were higher. The initial fear of "taper" in May and June caused huge and sudden capital outflows from those countries resulting in massive economic dislocation in those markets. In India, for example, the Rupee was pummeled as the hedge fund investors, fearing that interest rates were about to suddenly rise, all tried to unwind their Rupee investments at the same time. And now that 'taper' has officially started and longer-term rates are expected to rise, these issues will continue. Those countries have all taken defensive measures. India, for example, imposed taxes on gold imports, which has impacted the gold markets but has reduced India's balance of payments deficit.
As a result of such tone deafness on the part of the Fed, and because there now appears to be enough dollars in the world for the current level of trade, the international appetite for U.S. dollars is clearly on the wane. Japan and China, the two largest holders of Treasury debt, have recently reduced purchases. Most emerging market nations and large players like Russia and China have vocally called for an alternative to the dollar as the world's reserve currency. This movement is alive and well.
The Fed's Balance Sheet
As the economy expands, the size of the Fed's balance sheet and the level of excess bank reserves will become a problem. There are $2.3 trillion of bank reserves in excess of what are 'required' under the law and regulations. (Required reserves for the U.S. banking system are $.067 trillion; so, the system has 34x more reserves than it needs.) Under 'normal' conditions, and the way the system was designed to work, if the economy got too hot, the Fed could sell a small amount of securities out of its portfolio which would reduce bank reserves to the point where banks would have to 'borrow' from the Fed. Because bankers are hesitant to do that, and because the Fed could raise the 'discount' rate, the rate charged for the borrowings, the Fed could control new lending and thus the economic expansion. This isn't possible today as the Fed would have to sell $2.2 trillion to cause banks to have to borrow. Such a volume of sales would likely cause a crisis in the financial system, or even collapse. Today, the only way the Fed has to stop the banks from lending is to pay them not to lend – this is exactly the opposite of the intent of the original legislation and the opposite of how the Fed has worked for most of its 100 year history.
Furthermore, given the growing lack of confidence in the dollar as the world's reserve currency, if fiscal budget deficits grow in the future, the Fed may end up as the major lender (i.e., lender of last resort) for the U.S. Treasury. That simply means more money creation.
Unfunded Liabilities-
The U.S. Treasury officially recognizes $85 trillion as the amount of unfunded liabilities of the Federal Government. Other professionals set this number near $120 trillion. For comparison, the annual U.S. GDP is about $16 trillion. The budget deficit reported in the media is a cash flow deficit (tax collections minus expenditures). The budget deficit doesn't include promises made for future payments (Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, government pensions) which have been running between $4 and $5 trillion annually for the past few years. These amounts simply get added to the 'unfunded' liability number.
As the population ages, these payments will have to be made, and the budget may become overwhelmed. (You see the relevance of the remark made above about the Fed being the lender of last resort for the Treasury.) This is the heart of the debate about 'entitlements' that has been front and center for the past decade.
Solutions (none of which you will like)
Philipp Bagus is a fellow at the Ludwig von Mises Institute in Europe. He is well known in Europe for his work on financial issues there. In a recent paper, Bagus says that there are several possible ways out of the current money printing predicament. Any one or a combination is possible. We have put them in an order of most likely to least likely to be used:
- Inflation – this is the natural outcome of printing money;
- Financial Repression – this is current Fed policy; savers and retirees bear a disproportionately large burden as inflation eats at their principle but there is no safe way to earn a positive real rate of return;
- Pay Off Debt – this means much higher levels of taxation, and is definitely a real possibility. In Europe, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has proposed a one-time 10% wealth tax. As the unfunded liabilities push up the federal deficit, expect such proposals in the U.S.;
- Bail-In – In '08-'09 we saw 'bail-outs' where the government saved GM, Chrysler, AIG and the Too Big to Fail banks by buying stock or otherwise recapitalizing them. A 'bail-in' refers to the financial system. Banks and other depositories have liabilities called deposits. The depositors do not consider themselves 'lenders.' But, in a 'bail-in,' it is the depositors who lose. Their deposits are 'converted' to equity in the bank. When they try to sell their bank shares, they find that it will fetch only a fraction of the value of their deposits. A variant of this is what happened in Cyprus in the spring of 2013. Because of the distaste the public now has for 'bail-outs,' if there is another financial crisis, this is likely to be the method used;
- Default on Entitlements – when we talk about 'entitlement reform' in the U.S., we really mean at least a partial default. It is likely that some people simply won't get what they were promised. We put this low on the list because we have witnessed a political process that won't deal with the issue;
- Repudiate Debt – Because the government can simply print money to pay it debts, this is the least likely of all of the possibilities in the U.S.
The long-term issues are serious. And not addressing them simply means a higher level of pain when addressing them is required. Remember, these are long-term issues. They are all not likely to occur at the same time, nor will they simply appear overnight. The first signs of trouble will occur when markets begin to recognize that the 'official' inflation rate significantly understates reality, or that the inflation data become so overwhelming that they can no longer be masked. Even then, markets may come to tolerate higher inflation, as after 100 years of fighting inflation, the Fed and the world's major central banks have embraced it as a good thing.
Meanwhile, as set forth in Part I of this paper, the immediate outlook for the economy is upbeat. Enjoy it while it lasts.
December 20, 2013
Robert Barone, Ph.D.
Joshua Barone
Andrea Knapp Nolan
Dustin Goldade
August 16, 2012
Today's market not driven by fundamentals – so be careful
Recent market reactions
anything major, the Dow sold off .7 percent, only to begin a rise again on Aug. 3 when the market realized that Spanish and Italian two-year rates, which is where those two countries are selling new debt, were now falling. Apparently, the markets now believe Super Mario's words.
Advisors (UVA), Reno, NV, a Registered Investment Advisor. Dr. Barone is a former Director of the Federal Home Loan Bank of San Francisco, and is currently a Director of Allied Mineral Products, Columbus, Ohio, AAA Northern California, Nevada, Utah Auto Club, and the associated AAA Insurance Company where he chairs the Investment Committee.
August 2, 2012
Equities: Is a bear market inevitable in this economy?
All of the data and the trends in the data indicate that it is possible that a recession might already have begun.
• Job creation has been dismal in the second quarter, with little hope for improvement soon; jobless claims are, once again, on the rise.
• Retail sales have fallen three months in a row; this has never occurred without an ensuing recession. What is of greater concern is that this has occurred while gasoline prices have been falling.
• While market pundits have cheered small gains in housing data, it is clear that housing is still bottom bouncing. Changes in foreclosure laws have caused supply constraints that have made it appear that home prices are rising again.
• Industrial production, the one bright spot in the economy, showed a decline in May before recovering somewhat in June.
• The drought has caused raw food and commodity prices to spike. These will soon translate into higher food and raw input costs. (Is anyone now questioning the wisdom of the congressional mandate to produce increasing quantities of ethanol from corn instead of sugar?)
• Consumer confidence continues at levels below those seen in past recessions . Much of this is due to uncertainty surrounding fiscal policy and taxes.
• In the June Philadelphia Fed Survey, manufacturers were asked to list reasons for slowing production; 52 percent cited uncertain tax policy and government regulations.
• Real incomes are falling. The downward bias in the inflation numbers produced by the government inflates the reported GDP numbers. It has been my view that, as a result of the biased reporting, the recession never really ended, and real GDP is much lower than reported.
Equity market up for year
Nevertheless, despite all of the poor data, the equity markets have held up. At 1,338 (the closing level on July 25), the S&P 500 is still 6.4 percent higher than it was at the beginning of the year. This is strange, given that every other major market in the world is down 20 percent and in bear market territory. Here are a couple of possible explanations:
• The equity markets used to be a leading indicator of the economy. Severe market corrections (20 percent or more) usually meant recession was either imminent or already here. But, with the advent of computerized trading, the market now appears to be more of a coincident indicator. In late 2007, when the last recession began, the market was only off 5 percent from its October peak.
• Europe: There is such financial chaos in Europe that a flight to the dollar is continuing. Because higher quality bond yields are so low, some of the funds have found their way into the U.S. equity markets, thus keeping them buoyed.
Neither of these two reasons should give investors any confidence that U.S. markets can hold up. Besides the poor internal economic data within the U.S., worldwide data have been weak. In addition to the obvious problems in Europe, China is in a much slower growth mode, as is Japan, the rest of Asia, and even the commodity producers like Australia and Canada.
orderly plan for countries to exit the monetary union than to deny that the union isn't in any danger of falling apart.
Solvable "fiscal cliff"
Finally, the approaching "fiscal cliff" in the U.S. is another wild card that could have a significant impact on capital markets. The good thing about the "fiscal cliff" is that it isn't an outside force being imposed. The cliff is avoidable and completely under the control of Congress and the president.
With all of this going on, is a bear market inevitable? While I think that the confluence of events (worldwide economic slowdown, slowdown in the U.S., European financial chaos, "fiscal cliff") make it likely, as I indicated in my last column, the application of "business friendly" policies could prevent it.
Until visibility into policy becomes clearer, investors should continue to be extremely cautious. They should remain liquid.
Finally, the U.S. economy is so fragile that any external shock, like a financial implosion in Europe, is certain to have negative impacts on U.S. markets. Policy responses to economic slowdown or financial chaos (e.g., printing of money by the European Central Bank or QE3 by the Fed) are likely to have a positive impact on the value of precious metals and commodities. And the ongoing drought will definitely move food and commodity prices upward.
Advisors (UVA), Reno, NV, a Registered Investment Advisor. Dr. Barone is a former Director of the Federal Home Loan Bank of San Francisco, and is currently a Director of Allied Mineral Products, Columbus, Ohio, AAA Northern California, Nevada, Utah Auto Club, and the associated AAA Insurance Company where he chairs the Investment Committee.
July 27, 2012
New Soap Opera: The Comedy of Euros
Likely New Episodes
- Spanish bank recapitalization: We have recently learned that the European Central Bank is willing to impose losses on the shareholders and junior bondholders of some of the Spanish savings banks. (When they bailed out Ireland, all bondholders were saved.) The draft of the document meant to give Spain's banks 100 billion euros has this provision, but the periphery's finance ministers are opposing it.
- New Episode: Is 100 billion euros enough for Spain's banks? The general rule of thumb appears to be that the ultimate amount needed is usually higher by a factor of at least two.
- Spain's regional provinces are now coming hat in hand for bailouts of their own. And those regional governments must refinance more than 35 billion euros in the near future.
- New Episode: Are there enough resources in the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), the temporary bailout fund, and the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), the proposed permanent bailout fund, to bail out Spain and its regions? What about Italy?
- The problematic link between Spain's sovereign and its bank's balance sheets has not been severed, as the audience was led to believe during the "Summit" episode.
- New Episode: Will the ESM require the Spanish government to guarantee the bank capital? If so, will market reaction drive borrowing rates for Spain even higher, or lock them out of the capital markets altogether?
- Greece now appears unable to produce an austerity plan acceptable to the Troika (EU Commission, ECB and International Monetary Fund). Greece has a 3.8 billion euro bond payment due in August. And the ECB just announced that it will no longer accept Greek government bonds as collateral for loans, thus locking Greece out of ECB borrowing.
- New Episode: Will the Troika impose its own plan, or will it withhold bailout funding? Without access to the ECB, will Greece default again? And, will this lead to Greece's immediate and disorderly exit from the monetary union?
- Each monetary union country is required to put capital into the ESM. Italy will be required to pony up 20% of the ESM capital.
- New Episode: What sense does it make for Italy to borrow at 7% when the ESM would offer a rate of return that is closer to 3%?
- The ECB holds tons of Greek debt on their balance sheet at par (i.e., 100% of face value) (Portuguese, Spanish and Italian debt, too). If (when) Greece leaves the monetary union, they will renounce this debt, causing the ECB to need more capital to cover this loss.
- New Episode: Will the remaining members be able to contribute even more capital? That will put additional pressure on the weaklings — again, Portugal, Spain and Italy will have to go to the capital markets to borrow at extremely high rates to meet their capital contribution requirements.
- Will the ESM be allowed to purchase sovereign debt in the secondary market as promised in the "Summit" episode? This is meant to support Spain and lower the interest rate it has to pay to borrow. The Dutch, Finns and probably the Germans may say 'Nein.'
Politicians in a Box
The Final Episode?
Advisors (UVA), Reno, NV, a Registered Investment Advisor. Dr. Barone is a former Director of the Federal Home Loan Bank of San Francisco, and is currently a Director of Allied Mineral Products, Columbus, Ohio, AAA Northern California, Nevada, Utah Auto Club, and the associated AAA Insurance Company where he chairs the Investment Committee.
July 23, 2012
Time for us to make enlightened policies
• Taxes: Uncertainty surrounding tax policy causes the private sector to take less risk, which lowers investment and job creation. For the last several years, Congress has signaled that significant tax increases are just ahead (currently referred to as the "fiscal cliff" due to occur on Jan. 1, 2013), only to push them back at the last minute for another short period. Nevertheless, the uncertainty persists, and economic hesitancy pervades.
• Corporate tax rate: Having one of the highest corporate tax rates in the world discourages investment at home and makes investment elsewhere more fruitful. Corporate taxes are paid by consumers via higher prices.
• Energy policy: Cheap energy is the No. 1 requirement for robust economic growth. Current policies appear to be designed to raise energy prices to spur the development of government selected industries. The result is great waste (e.g. Solyndra) and significantly reduced economic growth.
• Taxmageddon: The U.S. has a joke for a tax code. Talk about a Rube Goldberg! High, and threatened increased taxes on capital and investment just discourage economic growth. The tax code needs to be thrown out in favor of a broad-based, simple, and fair system.
• The financial system: Scandal after scandal show how pervasive lawlessness is among the world's "too big to fail" institutions. So far, no U.S. banker has gone to jail, nor trial, nor has anyone been indicted. Regulatory policy encourages moral hazard (excessive risk taking backed by implicit taxpayer bailouts) and discourages lending to the private sector. All of this reduces economic growth.
Investing in a deleveraging world
2) Policymakers must identify those businesses that would benefit from such a philosophy. There might be several categories that would so benefit, but one immediately comes to mind (maybe because I have worked in it all my life) — financial and intangible asset firms. This category includes managers of investments, hedge funds, trusts, patents and trademarks, insurance companies and services, banking and subsidiary finance companies. While these firms are usually small, their salary levels generally are high. A University of Nevada, Reno study indicates that salaries in these firms average $88,000, twice the state's average.
Jon Ralston, a political columnist and host of a daily political commentary show seen locally, recently criticized the Apple move, saying that they will grow "astronomical profits" but that the state won't benefit much because the number of jobs is small. But its move, along with those of Microsoft (which now employs several hundred), Intuit (also a large employer), Oracle and others, appears to recognize that Nevada, indeed, has something to offer now. If the state attracts enough of these companies, there will be plenty of tax revenue generated. The state should play to its current strengths and make sure its policies protect and nurture those strengths.
Advisors (UVA), Reno, NV, a Registered Investment Advisor. Dr. Barone is a former Director of the Federal Home Loan Bank of San Francisco, and is currently a Director of Allied Mineral Products, Columbus, Ohio, AAA Northern California, Nevada, Utah Auto Club, and the associated AAA Insurance Company where he chairs the Investment Committee.
July 9, 2012
Economic issues, good and bad
• Corporate health (economics): Large corporations are extremely healthy with large cash hoards and many have low cost and low levels of debt.
• Politics (policy): Americans are tired of special interests' ability to pay for political favors.
• European Monetary Union (policy): A Greek exit from the euro is still probable after recent election and is likely to spread contagion to Portugal, Spain and even Italy. There is also danger here to America's financial system.
• Brazil, Russia, India, China or the BRIC, Growth Rate (economics): China appears to be in danger of a hard landing, as is Brazil. India is already there. This has serious implications for commodity producers like Canada and Australia.
• Fiscal cliff and policy uncertainties (policy): A significant shock will occur to the U.S. economy if tax policy (Bush tax cut expiration and reinstatement of the 2 percent payroll tax) isn't changed by Jan. 1, 2013.
• Housing (economic & policy): In the U.S., housing appears to have found a bottom, but because of falling prices and underwater homeowners, a significant recovery is still years away. Housing is a huge issue in Europe, especially Spain, and it will emerge as an issue in Australia and Canada if China has a hard landing.
• Energy costs (economics & policy): The current high cost of energy is killing worldwide growth (see "Positives" above).
• U.S. taxmageddon (policy): The U.S. tax system discourages savings and investment (needed for growth), encourages debt and favors specific groups.
• Too Big To Fail (TBTF) (policy): The U.S. financial system is dominated by TBTF institutions that use implicit government backing to take unwarranted risk; TBTF has now been institutionalized by the Dodd-Frank legislation; small institutions that lend to small businesses are overregulated and are disappearing.
• Debt overhang (economics): The federal government, some states and localities and many consumers have too much debt; the de-leveraging that must occur stunts economic growth.
• Inflation (economics & policy): Real inflation is much higher than officially reported. If a true inflation index were used, it is likely that the data would show that the recession still hasn't ended.
It is clear from the points above and from the latest data reports that worldwide, most major economies are slowing. It is unusual to have them all slowing at the same time and thus, the odds of a worldwide recession are quite high.
In the context of such an event or events, the U.S. will likely fare better than most. But that doesn't mean good times, just better than its peers. There is also greater potential of destabilizing events (oil and Iran, contagion from Europe, Middle East unrest), which may have negative economic impacts worldwide. Thus, in the short-term it appears that the U.S. economy will continue its lackluster performance with a significant probability of an official recession and vulnerable to shock type events. (Both the fixed income and the equity markets seem to be signaling this.)
Looking back at my blogs over the years, I have always been early in identifying trends. The positive trends are compelling despite the fact that the country must deal with huge short-term issues that will, no doubt, cause economic dislocation.
The only question is when the positives will become dominant economic forces, and that is clearly dependent on when enabling policies are adopted. 1) In the political arena, there is a growing restlessness by America's taxpayers over Too Big To Fail and political practices where money and lobbyists influence policy and law (e.g., the Taxmageddon code). 2) The large cap corporate sector is healthier now than at any time in modern history. Resources for economic growth and expansion are readily available. Only a catalyst is needed. 3) America is on the "comeback" trail in manufacturing. Over the last decade, Asia's wages have caught up.
Cultural differences and expensive shipping costs are making it more profitable and more manageable to manufacture at home. 4) Finally, and most important of all, unlike the last 40 years, because of new technology, the U.S. has now identified an abundance of cheaply retrievable energy resources within its own borders. As a result, just a few policy changes could unleash a new era of robust economic growth in the U.S. Let's hope those changes occur sooner rather than later!
Advisors (UVA), Reno, NV, a Registered Investment Advisor. Dr. Barone is a former Director of the Federal Home Loan Bank of San Francisco, and is currently a Director of Allied Mineral Products, Columbus, Ohio, AAA Northern California, Nevada, Utah Auto Club, and the associated AAA Insurance Company where he chairs the Investment Committee.
The New Bank Paradigm: Squeezing Out the Private Sector
One of the reasons for all of the stress in Europe is the fact that their banking system holds huge amounts of periphery country debt (Greece, Spain, Portugal, Italy) with no capital backing. On a mark to market basis, most, if not all, of the capital of the periphery banks disappears. In fact, the European Central bank (ECB) itself is still carrying the Greek debt it holds on its books at par, as if there is no chance that they won't be repaid in full.
Since the financial crisis of '08-'09, Western banking systems have come to rely on government, at first as the capital provider of last resort, but now, at least in Greece and Spain, as the capital provider of first resort (most likely because there is no other). In a symbiotic relationship, those same governments have come to rely on the banks to purchase their excessive supply of debt. The capital rules favor this unhealthy relationship. In effect, we now have a banking DNA bias against private sector lending.
We have heard the politicians in Washington rail against the banks for not making loans to the private sector. Yet, all of the rules, regulations, and enforcement processes make it difficult, if not impossible, to do just that. The overbearing regulatory process strangles private sector lending at small community banks. And, as indicated above, the capital regime itself, which impacts all banks, discourages private sector loans. For example, a $1 million loan to the private sector requires $200,000 in capital backing plus an additional $20,000 to $30,000 in loss reserve contribution from the capital base. That same $1 million loan to the US Treasury, via purchases of Treasury securities, requires no capital or reserve contribution. The ultimate result is that, since the financial crisis when western governments found out that it was politically okay to "save" (i.e. recapitalize) large banks with public monies, they also found out that the capital and regulatory regime now made those same banks major buyers of excessive government debt.
Unfortunately, while governments like this and will continue to promote it because it keeps the cost of borrowing low and provides them with a ready market for deficit spending, government is not the economic engine. That is what the private sector is. Simply put, the banking model in the west now promotes moral hazard (banks making bets that are implicitly backed by taxpayers) and Too Big To Fail (TBTF) policies while it stifles private sector lending. The Dodd-Frank legislation has institutionalized this model with government intervention now seen as the first response to a banking issue. If it hasn't, then why did President Obama say on The View the business day after JPMorgan Chase (JPM) announced its trading loss that it was a good thing that JPMorgan had a lot of capital else the government would have had to "step in." Or why has Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan's CEO, been required to testify before both House and Senate Committees about a loss of less than 3% of the bank's $190 billion capital base? As further proof of government control of the banking system, the FDIC recently announced that, under its Dodd-Frank mandate, it is ready to take over any TBTF institution, "when the next crisis occurs." Isn't it clear that the relationship between the US federal government and the banking system is unhealthy, perhaps even incestuous, to the detriment of the private sector? That very same banking model is emerging in Europe with the emergency funding by the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF) to recapitalize the Spanish banks and talk of a pan-European regulatory authority and deposit insurance.
The emerging banking model is one in which central governments and the money center banks co-exist in a mutual admiration society where government capitalizes the banks and the banks are the primary buyers of excessive government debt. Because government doesn't create any real economic value (it regulates it and transfers it from one group to another), the domination of government assets on bank balance sheets in place of private sector assets spells real trouble for the future economic growth in the Western economies.
Advisors (UVA), Reno, NV, a Registered Investment Advisor. Dr. Barone is a former Director of the Federal Home Loan Bank of San Francisco, and is currently a Director of Allied Mineral Products, Columbus, Ohio, AAA Northern California, Nevada, Utah Auto Club, and the associated AAA Insurance Company where he chairs the Investment Committee.


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The Sounds Like Fun! Series of Children's Concerts is made possible by the generous support of Columbia REA.
Music for trumpet, trombone, clarinet, bassoon, violin, double bass and percussion. What else can we say? We've got everything but the kitchen sink! And there's no better way to kick off Summer Reading than to show up at the Walla Walla Public Library to make lots of noise. School's out!

subset: commoncrawl


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Ike, this last weekend that Larry and I spent with you in the intermediate dirt riding course at the North Carolina Motorsports Park in Henderson was a total blast! Your masterful instruction led to adventure riding that I had hoped would be the end product of the weekend. You struck the ideal balance for me between rigor and an easy-going, supportive manner, always with safety in the forefront. As a retired teacher, I appreciated the way you complemented practical instruction and drills with explanation of the physics of the operation and behavior of the motorcycle so that I could understand the why and how of the skills to be learned. I will definitely consider coming back to see you for advanced instruction down the road. ~Roy Hull
I just wanted to say thank you again for the class today. I learned a lot of valuable skills and it was an honor and a pleasure to learn from one of the best. I was able to accomplish a lot of things today that I thought were above my skill level, but Ike's teaching style and persistence made all the difference in the world. I know Josh and Mason had a blast as well. I would have loved to have stayed later, but it was just too hot for me. I wasn't sure I was going to make it past lunch, but I pulled through. Thanks again for your hospitality and I hope we can have the pleasure of riding with the two of you again in the near future (when the temps are more mild!). ~Mark Ossman


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If you decide that you want to get a business administration degree, then you might want to consider attending one of the 2 business administration schools in Billings, Montana. Billings has a general population of 89,847 and an overall student population of 6,086. Approximately 2,284 of Billings's students are enrolled in schools that offer business administration programs.
Billings's largest business administration school is Rocky Mountain College. In 2010, approximately 24 students graduated from the Business Administration program at Rocky Mountain College.
In 2010, 26 students graduated with a business administration degree from one of Billings's business administration schools. If you decide to attend one of Billings's business administration schools, you can expect to pay an average of $22,578 per year in instate tuition and $24,398 per year in out of state tuition.
You should also anticipate spending about $1,100 for business administration related books and supplies every year. And if you live on campus at one of the Billings-based business administration schools, you will have an added expense of $5,895 per year, on average, for room and board. Students who live at home can cut this cost down to approximately $7,641.
If you decide to work as a general manager in Billings, your job prospects are not very good. In 2010, there were 6,560 general managers in Montana. Of these general managers, 1,040 were working in the greater Billings area. The government projects that the number of general managers in Billings will increase by 5% by the year 2018. This anticipated change is faster than the projected nationwide trend for general managers.
The average salary you can expect to earn as a general manager in Billings is $70,040 per year. This is higher than the state-wide average salary for general managers.
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Travel Grant Applications
This information is specific to applying for the OURCI Travel Grant. Please read all the following information before starting your application.
What is expected for the Travel Grant?
- It is required that a K-State faculty research mentor is overseeing the project.
- Awardees will have an opportunity to network with other researchers.
- Awardees will have opportunity to make contributions to their field.
- Awardees will have opportunities to present, perform, or exhibit their work publicly.
- Awardees will submit a final budget and all receipts.
- Grant awardees are required to publicly disseminate their project in an appropriate scholarly venue. Awardees are expected to strive to fulfill these obligations in good faith and to represent K-State in an appropriate manner. Failure to do so may result in sanctions (e.g., refunding the grant).
Materials to prepare for the application:
Please note that the OURCI only accepts online applications; materials emailed without consent of the office will be disregarded.
- A letter of reference from your proposed research mentor as a PDF document. Mentors must be a faculty member of assistant, associate, or full professor. The proposed mentor will be sent an email notification requesting the letter of reference by Qualtrics, our application manager. Please note, your mentor will not receive a notification for the letter of recommendation until the application has been submitted. Please don't wait until the deadline to inform your mentor of your need for recommendation.
A project description (250-300 words). We recommend the student write the description before starting the application, then copy and paste into the application. Project descriptions must be written by the student and should be understood by a professor outside of the applying student's field.
- A current transcript (electronic copy). Academic Histories provided by KSIS will not satisfy this requirement. Click here for information about ordering transcripts electronically. This can take up to three business days. Have the transcript delivered to your email address only. You will upload the PDF file within the application.
- A statement of need for travel funds of no more than 500 words.
A budget of expenses. Click here to preview the format.
Future Travel grant information and applications are not available at this time.
If you experience any problems or have a question about the application, you may contact the staff at the Office of Undergraduate Research and Creative Inquiry. Please e-mail email@example.com.


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The smallBlock Sunday Seminar held last Sunday in the Waiau Pa community hall was an outstanding success.
The seminar addressed stakeholder interests and wider issues around communities, local economic development and rural living.
For the organisers, the Franklin Branch of the New Zealand Tree Crops Association, the seminar was successfully implemented and resulted in new members signing up.
The seminar presenters each achieved their objective of informing and educating lifestylers, both current or future, about the pitfalls and benefits of owning and operating a small rural block.
For the trade participants, new business was gained and more importantly, exposure of their interesting and varied product ranges was realised.
The major sponsor, Pukekohe based manufacturer Fieldmaster, gained exposure of a varied product range to their target market of small block owners.
The most important stakeholder group at the seminar was of course the attendees. Their feedback indicated a high level of appreciation of the seminars presented and of the opportunity to discuss issues faced over a cup of tea after the seminars.
For me, the day clearly demonstrated two things.
First is the value in bringing like-minded community groups together. Groups like Treecroppers, Beekeepers and Trees for Survival can achieve so much more when working together rather than working in silos.
Second the opportunity to help improve the productivity of small lifestyle blocks, and as a consequence, to improve the lot our urban cousins.
Many lifestyle block owners are actively looking for ways to get more from their small blocks. They hold an important key to address issues like improving community resilience and local economic development.
I have previously criticised the Auckland Plan for putting so much emphasis and resources on developing a Maori culture as a point of difference for the world's most liveable city-to-be. The challenge is to use those resources to unlock the productive potential that lifestyle block owners hold the key to.
For example, food security and climate change mitigation are planning issues identified by the Auckland Council.
Part of a response to climate change is to sequester carbon in the soil, in the form of biochar, which has the spin-off benefit of improving soil productivity.
Part of the answer to reducing the city's dependence on external food sources, is to use planning rules to encourage rural productivity improvements rather than limiting the subdivision of productive rural land.
The irony of planning rules that restrict rural subdivision, is that small rural blocks can be more productive than large farms. They also offer more employment opportunities, enable a secure and diverse supply of local food and ensure a vibrant countryside where talent will want to live.
The smallBlock seminar series showed the desire of lifestyle block owners to develop that productive potential. All that is now required is for Councils, both Auckland and Waikato, to rise to the challenge of finding a way to support that desire.


text: Theatre Please note this event has already taken place and you are viewing an archived page of the Lakeside website.For a list of current events, exhibitions and workshops, please click on 'What's On' in the menu above AND THERE WAS LIGHT… THIS WORKSHOP TOOK PLACE IN 2008 Welcome in the New Year with colourful lanterns inspired by our exhibition Figuring Light. *Our family workshops are designed for children and their parents and carers to work creatively and have fun together. Places for all workshops should be booked in advance on 0115 846 7777. Workshops are for 5-12 year olds (under 7's must be accompanied by an adult).


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$100 Million Dollar Challenge
Posted by Mitch Mitchell on Oct 2, 2008
Okay, I said I was taking my shot at making money online, and this might be the type of thing to help get me there.
There's a contest being run where, if you join up, you have a chance to win not only big money, but the big winner gets a brand new Corvette. It's open to anyone around the world, and one of those things you can do, if you sign up, is get an affiliate link and, for every person who signs up under you, you'll earn a dollar.
On the site, there's lots of educational material on how to market both online and offline, and that's something I can use for all of my businesses. So, you can click on the image above, or you can click on the link below, or you can look to the right column somewhere and find the link and click on it there, because I'll be adding it pretty quickly. You can also invite your friends to sign up, and you can do it by email or through the site. I decided to go this route first.
So, why not set your goals pretty high, sign up, and at least earn a couple of dollars driving others to the contest? And, please, give me that dollar! 🙂


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Ph. Sara P.
Day and Night... Cuz day and night!
When I was sitting in my brother's room last week, I instantly stopped chatting to him when
I spotted that Air Jordan watch which he used to wear as a child.
I begged him to make it mine. And here we go, my new watch. Love is in the AIR. 23!
Total Look: Zara
23 Air Jordan Watch: Vintage Wilson


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text: One day, I started calculating how much money I spent a year at nail salons. When I saw the total, I was mortified. As a result, I decided to find a simple, fast way to paint my nails at home. I hate chipped nail polish, so I really wanted a process that kept my nail polish on for at least a week. Girls, let me tell ya... I have found the BEST way! It heals your nails, only takes about 30 minutes, and doesn't chip.Read More


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Today, every joiner of Ninja Miner has a chance to become the brilliant guide of one Ninja during his expedition around the mine. Wow! How fantastic! Get started right now!
In the game, you can encounter many challenging rounds, just like levels. To keep each one under control, it is your duty to lead the Ninja through all the deadly pathways and find out the exit successfully. Along the trip, the door is only opened after you grab lots of colored gems. Please consider breaking blocks and traps to free way for him. Meanwhile, it is better to be wary of huge bats and other monsters that are waiting for his appearance. The water level occasionally rises whenever he touches a few buttons. That's why you should congregate the diving bell to help him avoid being drowned.
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Missouri Senate Endorses Drug Program Renewal
JEFFERSON CITY (AP) - The Missouri Senate has endorsed legislation to renew an expiring prescription drug benefit for over 200,000 low-income and disabled seniors.
The Missouri Rx Program is scheduled to expire in August, but the measure endorsed on Wednesday would extend the benefit until 2017. State officials estimate more than 9 million prescription drug claims will be filed for 230,000 Missourians during the current budget year. Democratic Gov. Jay Nixon has called on lawmakers to renew the program.
The bill would also allow doctors to write epinephrine prescriptions to some locations, including restaurants and amusement parks. Those places could then keep an emergency supply of the drug that treats severe allergic reactions.
It needs one more vote before moving to the House.


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Autumn Squash Soup/
This squash soup is heavenly. Creamy, buttery roasted squash blended into a magnificent soup. It's only right to create a seasonal dish in honor of Autumn..
I threw together a soup with what items I had in my kitchen. You can make this soup with just one type of squash or two, whatever you prefer. I also added a sweet potato to the mix to thicken the soup and add more sweetness. The toasted walnuts on top add a nice crunchy texture and nutty flavor. The perfect combo!
Did you know that fruits and veggies with an orange color have certain healing properties?
They contain zeaxanthin, flavonoids, lycopene, potassium, vitamin C and beta-carotene, which is vitamin A.
- Aids in eye health and reduces the risk of macular degeneration of the eye
- Reduces the risk of prostate cancer
- Lowers blood pressure
- Lowers LDL cholesterol (the bad cholesterol)
- Promotes healthy joints
- Promotes collagen formation
- Fights harmful free radicals in the body
- Encourages pH balance of the body
- Boosts immune system
- Builds healthier bones by working with calcium and magnesium
I roasted all of my ingredients before blending into a soup to bring out the richness and sweet flavors of the squash and sweet potato. This recipe is super simple and easy to make at home. Hope you enjoy adding this to your menu this Fall!
- 1 medium butternut squash (roasted)
- 1 acorn squash (roasted)
- 1 small sweet potato (roasted)
- 1 garlic clove
- 16fl oz vegetable broth (or 1 bouillon with 3 cups of water)
- 2 cups or more of water
- 1/3 cup walnuts
- salt and pepper to taste
- Preheat oven to 400'F. Roast sweet potato in aluminum foil.
- Cut Acorn squash in half and take the seeds out and place skin side facing up in roasting pan.
- Peel the skin off of the butternut squash, cut roughly into 2'in pieces, and coat with coconut oil or olive oil and salt and pepper. Add the garlic roughly chopped in to the butternut squash pan. Roast all vegetable until cooked. This should take about 30 minutes. Make sure to mix the butternut squash every 5 minutes or so.
- Heat up your vegetable broth in a soup pot, and place all your roasted vegetable in to the pot. Only use the meat from the acorn squash and remove the skin from the sweet potato.
- You might need to add water slowly to your soup mixture if it's too thick. Add a cup or two of water and blend the roasted vegetables with a hand blender. If your soup needs more liquid, add more water until soup reaches the right consistency.
- Add salt and pepper to taste.
- Heat pan on medium heat and toast walnuts.
- Serve the squash soup with toasted walnuts on top! Enjoy!


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One never knows the texture a newborn's hair. And Bailey's so far nothing like mine. But her texture can be found in our gene pool. She's her uncle's twin. Thick, silky, and curly, while mine is thick, coarse, and kinky.
She's nursing in the picture above so I apologize for her nose being cut off. 🙂
Below shows her hair just after her first bath in the hospital. This full head of hair was the cause of much heartburn. (I believe in the old wive's tale.)
I had a chance to write an article about products for babies in the Summer 2016 edition of Naturally Happy Hair Magazine. Thanks to suggestions from moms who have been through the hair struggle, I found products that work for Bailey's texture!
We've really taken to Aveeno. We use the wash and shampoo on her body and the gentle conditioning shampoo on her hair every 3-4 days. She did go through a dry skin moment but it faded after 2-3 weeks. I continued our same regimen during this time (we either use coconut oil, Shea butter, or California Super Sensitive Everyday Lotion).
After washing Bailey's hair, I apply coconut oil or Shea butter while it's wet and, of course, let it air dry or place a hat on her head if it's chilly in the house. There was a spell where she had a dry scalp. I realized I was neglecting her hair. Mamas be busy. For her dandruff, I applied coconut oil directly on her scalp then used a fine toothed comb to massage the dandruff away. I washed it and once it dried, the dandruff had disappeared and has yet to return!
I do have hair products from Shea Moisture to give a try but am going to finish up the Aveeno Baby first. To help Bailey avoid becoming a product hoarder like her mom, we will use one thing at a time!
The article reads….
So you're going to be a mom? Oh wait, not you? I'M GOING TO BE A MOM!? Those caps definitely express my initial reaction to the pregnancy test. Well, to be honest, that's been my feeling the entire duration of my pregnancy. Bouts of extreme excitement all the way to the other end of the spectrum: fear; what if I do something wrong?
I'm beginning to learn to be okay with a little trial and error. I may not always buy the best diapers, may choose swaddles she doesn't care for, or I may even grab a used burp cloth in a pinch if it happens to be near wash day…which according to some is everyday and where in the world is the time for that?
I will have to try some products and items to find out what works for my baby and what her body doesn't care for. To get started with hair and body care, I surveyed the moms on my Facebook friend's list. By all means, do your own research to find out which ingredients you want to use or avoid in regards to your baby's daily routine. The products below could give you a good starting point.
Coconut oil –
This is my go to for my own hair and body needs as it serves as a great moisturizer and detangling agent for my hair and softens my skin without leaving a Johnson and Johnson baby oil-esque residue. So I'm really hoping daily use will allow me to avoid the harsh chemicals of diaper rash creams. And once her coils are as thick as mine and in need of detangling, I'll be trying coconut oil first, second, and third! My stockpile of this product is over the top.
Handmade products –
Many mothers make their own products. It just takes a little patience and research. I have even made my own body and hair butters as well as wipes using natural products. But time is not something I have a lot of so I cannot rely on my own schedule to offer time to make products. That being said, I personally know and support two African American women who whip up their products for sale as well as for use with their own children. I've been using their products for years, so I trust them on my child as well.
Candera of www.baskandbloomessentials.com is from the Bahamas but currently runs her business in my hometown. She has a national presence with her hair care and body butter line. Herbal infusions and essential oils are blended into butters and creams to create products free from parabens, sulfates, petrolatum, formaldehyde, and mineral oils. She is the mother of two and uses her products regularly on her young children. Her Five Blend Tummy Butter (and genetics of course) allowed me to bypass stretch marks even though my child was in the 75th percentile much of my pregnancy. Under her "For Kids & Babies" category on her site you'll find balms, creams, and butters specially made with gentle ingredients like olive oil, plantain leaf, vitamin E, and many more.
Another hand whipped product making mom providing high quality items is Mary of www.naturalsis72.com. She created her line out of frustration with use of cortisones for her children's eczema and with her own curls ruined from heat damage. This dual problem caused her to mix natural products until she found the ones that worked for her family. Ingredients commonly used with this line include cocoa, shea, and almond butters as well as natural oils. I find comfort in using a product on my skin, and soon my baby's, knowing they're being used personally by the makers.
SheaMoisture Baby –
SheaMoisture products are made with natural, organic ingredients for all hair textures and every skin type. The baby line is gentle enough for everyday use on the little ones. Their best seller is the Raw Shea Chamomile and Argan Oil Baby Head-To-Toe Wash and Shampoo. The light scent is meant to calm during bath time and the ingredients add comfort to baby's sensitive skin long after she's asleep. I'm currently trying not to use up my baby's Manuka Honey and Provence Lavender Baby Nighttime Soothing Lotion on myself. It smells so good and leaves skin feeling smooth and hydrated. They have so many products in their baby line, including fragrance and gluten free. Every parent is sure to find the one that works for baby!
Honorable mentions –
Baby's skin is so delicate and precious, we have to take the absolute best care of it that we can. Other products for infants and toddlers recommended by multiple friends include Mustela, Aveeno, California Baby, and Babyganics. I've put something from each on my registry to give them a try, so be sure to reach out to me on social media to see what I think of these in comparison to the ones I'm already familiar with!


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Take a look at these easy pro tips to help you improve your supermoto riding.
Pro tip #3 Feet and knees
You can choose to put your knee down for corners, but the best Supermoto riders rarely do. Stick the foot out as you slide into the corners and accelerate out hard.
Pro tip #4 Trust your front end
It's what we all dread: having the front wheel go off on a trip of its own. In Supermoto this can feel like it's about to happen all the time.
Get over it! That front tire is going to stay with you. Learn to trust it.
Pro tip #5 It's OK to move around
You're not on a streetbike – your suspension is long and flexible, taking all those bumps and hollows in its stride.
So don't go messing around too much with the suspension: your bike is moving around, sure, but it is not losing traction. Learn to go with it: it's doing you a favour.
Pro tip #6 Brake hard, brake late
It takes courage, but get used to the fact that Supermotos can handle crazily late braking. Practice braking later and later and later…
Remember, speed on the track is less about power than about late braking into a corner, managing it skilfully, and getting out quick.
Pro tip #7 Learn to counter-steer
Study a Supermoto pro mid-turn: sitting right forward, pushing hard down on the inside bar – counter-steering to control the slide.
Now you try: use the leverage of those big bars to counter-steer out of your slide. Sure, it's not what you do instinctively at first, but you soon will. And then you'll be flicking your bike from corner to corner like a pro.
Pro tip #8 Easy gear shifts
Useful one this: you can shift up a gear without using the clutch. Really? Yes, just remember to get off the gas before doing it.
Saves a lot of serious hand cramp, especially in beginners.
Pro tip #9 Mix the braking
Now you're in Supermoto, you need to think front brake.
Heading into turns: mostly front brake.
In the dirt: mostly back brake.
Two wheels = two brakes – use them!
You can watch all the action for free via our TV channel – twenty3.tv,
and make sure to follow us on social media!


text: Most of the architectual castings made by OK Foundry are for custom designs made to order for historic restoration or new installations so a good way to see what's possible is to look at what's been done for past projects. Since OK Foundry can make a foundry pattern to cast almost any architectural iron sand casting, these projects are really just a way to see what's possible. Choose a project category below to begin exploring what's possible.


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Vintage pullover 80s. V neckline. Bright colors geometric print.
Brand: Ilker
Fabric: Blend of polyester and wool
Talla: EU 40/38 UK 12/10 US 10/8
Vintage condition: New (no signs of use)
All measurements are taken on a flat surface cm/inches:
Shoulders: 52 cm / 20.47"
Bust: 52 cm / 20.47"
Waist: 50 cm / 19.68"
Sleeve: 51 cm / 20.07"
Length: 61 cm / 24.01"
Twitter / Instagram: @carolavintage
All garments available for sale, have been correctly washed and processed so that they are ready to wear and enjoy from the moment you receive them


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Triste (A. Carlos Jobim)
Jazz for Weddings, Jazz for corporate Events, Jazz Musicians for hire in the San Francisco Bay Area, Jazz Trios and Jazz Quartets. Jazz for corporate events and parties, Jazz Mucisians for cocktail parties, Jazz for ALL ocassions in the San Francisco Bay Area, Jazz band for hire.
Ph. 415-756-2608
How Insensitive (A. Carlos Jobim)
Out of Nowhere (Green/Heyman)
Yardbird Suite (Charles "Bird" Parker)
I.J. Smith Jazz Combo specializes in playing Jazz classics from the Golden Era of Jazz and Bebop - including standards from Great American Songbook composers/artists such as:
Cole Porter * Duke Ellington * Count Basie * Ben Webster * Billie Holiday * Charlie Parker * Dizzy Gillespie * Thelonious Monk * Miles Davis * Chet Baker * The Modern Jazz Quartet * Bill Evans * Dave Brubeck * Antonio Carlos Jobim * Stan Getz * John Coltrane * Charles Mingus * Wayne Shorter * Michael Brecker * Chick Corea *George Gershwin * Jerome Kern * Irving Berlin * Rodgers & Hart *Herbie Hancock * Stanley Turrentine * Jimmy Smith * Bobby Timmons * Art Blakey * Freddie Hubbard * Wes Montgomery * Cannonball Adderley *Cedar Walton * Ray Brown *and many more...
I.J. Smith Jazz Combo clients/venues played include:
Wayfare Tavern * Steinbeck Center * Google * MOMA * Craigslist * Asana * Terrace Room (Oakland) * Legion of Honor * Mechanics Bank * Moscone Center * Saint Francis Hotel * Presidio Officers Club * San Francisco Fairmont * The Box (SF) * Tivoli Chateau * de Young Museum * University Club (Palo Alto) ... and many others, including private cocktail parties, wedding receptions and wineries.
The i.j. smith combo plays straight ahead Jazz standards, classics to bebop, and can be tailored for ANY event, cocktail party, dinner, wedding reception, bar-mitzvah or corporate event. Whether it's a quiet dinner that requires just the right touch of ambience or a festive occasion, we can suit many needs... Duets, Trios or Quartets. Servicing the San Francisco Bay area and surrounding counties.


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"Don't take life so seriously, it isn't permanent." – Unknown
Some of us give life a really good run for it's money, but it is certainly not permanent.
Remember to stop, take a deep breath and enjoy a thing or two around you every now and again.
It is a little too easy to get buried under man made responsibilites and stress that are not always worth what you put into them.


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Percival Prattis (April 27, 1895 – February 29, 1980)
Percival Prattis of "Our World" in New York City became the first black news correspondent admitted to the House and Senate press gallery in Washington, DC on February 3, 1947
Percival Prattis became the first African American news correspondent admitted to the press galleries of both the United States House of Representatives and the Senate. In addition to his work as a journalist, Prattis was a civil rights leader working to advance the African American press. A veteran of World War I, Prattis joined the Pittsburgh Courier in 1935, became editor in 1956 and retired in 1962. He has been noted for his ability to unify black newsmen behind the fight against discrimination of African Americans in the press, particularly in the years around World War II. Prattis' ability to directly observe Congress allowed him to report on government proceedings with firsthand knowledge of events, and he could apply his unique perspective as an African American veteran and leader of the early movement for civil rights.
Extended bio:
Percival Leroy (P. L.) Prattis was born on April 27, 1895 in the Germantown section of Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. He was the only son of Alexander and Ella (Spraggins) Prattis. He attended grade school at the Christiansburg Industrial Institute in Cambria (now Christiansburg), Virginia, from 1908 to 1912. For further education, he attended the Hampton Institute (now Hampton University) in Hampton, Virginia, from 1912 to 1915. He later graduated in 1916 from the Ferris Institute, which was a preparatory academy for low income children in Big Rapids, Michigan. Prattis served in the U.S. Army during World War I. He was a Battalion Sergeant Major, headquartered in the Company 813 Pioneer Infantry. He was stationed in France from September 15, 1918 to July 13, 1919, and was honorably discharged from his duties on July 23, 1919. Prattis began his career in 1919 as the editor of the newly formed Michigan State News in Grand Rapids, Michigan. In 1921 he moved to Chicago, Illinois, to become the city editor of the Chicago Defender, which was the most influential African American weekly newspaper in the country at the beginning of World War I. The Chicago Defender often used sensationalistic headlines and graphic images to capture the reader's attention and convey the horror of lynching and other atrocities affecting African Americans. It was the first African American newspaper to have a circulation over 100,000. Prattis held this position until May 1923. In June 1923 he was hired as the city editor of the Associated Negro Press in Chicago, which included articles that were syndicated by other African American newspapers. He also traveled on assignment and reported on international stories, such as the activities of the Moton Commission on Education in the Republic of Haiti; he even interviewed the Emperor of Ethiopia, Haile Selassie, in England. He moved to Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, in 1936 to take a position with the highly influential African American newspaper, The Pittsburgh Courier. The Pittsburgh Courier, which was the leading African American newspaper by 1926, came from relatively inauspicious beginnings. The paper was founded by Edwin E. Harleston, a guard for the H. J. Heinz Company, as an outlet for his poetry. The first issue in 1907 was two pages in length and featured Harleston's poetry. Robert L. Vann, an attorney, drew up incorporation papers and assisted Harleston in finding investors. As one of the few African American lawyers in the city and a friend of Harleston, Vann was retained as legal counsel. Since the Courier could not afford to pay Vann, "he was given ten shares of stock valued at five dollars each in lieu of a fee" (Bunie, p. 44). Vann also was a regular editorial contributor to the Courier. In the fall of 1910, Edwin Harleston quit the paper due to creative differences and financial disagreements with the other investors. The remaining partners offered the editorship to Vann due to his experience as editor of The Courant, a student literary publication at the Western University of Pennsylvania (now the University of Pittsburgh). He was the Courier's editor, treasurer, and legal counsel and held these positions until his death in 1940. The Pittsburgh Courier became a force for social change. Editorials by Robert Vann and others stressed that the policy of the Pittsburgh Courier was to "uplift of the Negro race … through the medium of the columns" (Brewer, p. 24). Editorials at the Courier called attention to improvements needed in housing, health care, education, job opportunities, political awareness, crime, Jim Crow, and misrepresentation in the white press. When Prattis was hired as a city editor in 1936, the Pittsburgh Courier was the most influential African American newspaper in the country, with a circulation over "250,000" (Bunie, p. 222). Prattis also had duties as reporter and was dispatched on international assignments to the Middle East, Far East and post-World War II Europe. During World War II, he traveled extensively covering the African American Armed Forces. In 1947 he was unanimously granted membership in the Senate and House press galleries by the executive committee of the Periodical Correspondents Association, thus making him the first such permitted African American journalist. In 1948 he was promoted to managing editor, a position he held until 1956. While working at the Courier, Prattis also wrote the column "The Horizon," and was a correspondent for Our World magazine. He was named executive editor of the Pittsburgh Courier in 1956. During this time at the Courier, he highlighted the struggles of African Americans for fair employment opportunities from teaching positions to major league sports. In the 1960s the Pittsburgh Courier's circulation fell as the paper began to lose money and was no longer profitable. Many African American newspapers lost circulation during this time period as mainstream white newspapers gave coverage to the Civil Rights Movement. Mr. Prattis retired from the Courier in 1965 after it was bought by John Sengstacke, publisher and owner of the Courier's longtime competitor, the Chicago Defender. In retirement P. L. Prattis focused on community involvement and was very active in a number of organizations around Pittsburgh. He was the first African American officer on the Community Chest of Allegheny County Council; president of the Brashear Association; and vice-president of the Federation of Social Agencies of Allegheny County for six years. He sat on the boards of the Centre Avenue YMCA, the Pittsburgh branch of the N.A.A.C.P. and the Urban League. He was named "Community Leader of the Year" by the Jewish War Veterans Post 49. In 1962 he was awarded a medal as one of Hampton Institute's most illustrious alumni and in 1965 was given the "Master of Men" award by the state of Pennsylvania YMCA. P. L. Prattis married Helen Marie Sands in 1939 and their daughter, Patricia, was born in 1943. Prattis died February 29, 1980 at the Veterans Administration Hospital in Aspinwall, Pennsylvania.


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Microsoft is to address the vulnerability in Internet Explorer 8 that could potentially lead to zero-day attacks in its May Patch Tuesday next week.
The vulnerability has already been exploited during a watering hole attack targeting the US Department of Labor (DoL) website and security researchers are advising users of IE8 that this patch, rated 'critical', should be implemented first.
In its Advance Notification, Microsoft announced that there will be a further nine bulletins addressing 33 unique vulnerabilities. Of these, one more is rated critical and affects Microsoft Windows and eight are 'important' and concern problems in Windows, Office, Server, Tools and .Net Framework, Dustin Childs, group manager at Microsoft Trustworthy Computing, confirmed.
Wolfgang Kandek, chief technical officer at Qualys, said in a blog post that five of these bulletins allow for remote code execution and these "should be the focus points for your patching next week".
Kandek also revealed that Adobe will release a patch covering the zero-day vulnerability affecting ColdFusion and a new version of Adobe Reader on the same day.


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RUTH NORDSTRÖM, LL.M, gained her Master's degree from Uppsala University, Sweden having specialized in criminal law and human rights. She is the President and Senior Legal Counsel of Scandinavian Human Rights Lawyers (SHRL), a non-governmental organization dedicated to the promotion and protection of human rights and human dignity in Scandinavia and Europe. SHRL have provided legal assistance in several cases regarding human rights and arrange lectures and conferences on topics regarding human rights, human trafficking, religious liberty, freedom of conscience and parental rights.
Ruth Nordström has studied media- and communications, leadership and organizational development at Mittuniversitet in Sweden. She has former work experience from the Administrative Court of Uppsala Sweden and the Swedish Ministry of Justice.
RUTH NORDSTRÖM and her husband have three children.
Hon vann UNT-läsarnas pris
RUTH NORDSTRÖM ÄR JURISTEN som jobbar mot trafficking och för samvetsfrihet. Nu har UNT:s läsare utsett henne till Läsarnas upplänning 2014.
Ruth Nordström utsedd till Årets Förebild av tidningen Dagen:


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By Chris Foy on Wed 08/14/2013 02:38pm
Posted in
Wednesday's monthly luncheon of the Sheridan County Chamber of Commerce focused on the Sheridan College tech center expansion and renovation bond issue soon coming before the voters in a special election.
Sue Belish, a member of the state board of education, shared her top three reasons why voters should support of the bond issue from her perspective of a longtime educator.
Supporters of Sheridan College chairman, Mark Kinner, as well as college president, Paul Young, spoke to the audience during the luncheon. Chamber CEO Dixie Johnson also took the stage, encouraging voters to show their support for Sheridan College.
You can hear Belish's top ten reasons for supporting the bond issue by clicking on the attachment below.