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Summary of my Post-CPI Tweets
Below is a summary of my post-CPI tweets. You can (and should!) follow me @inflation_guy or sign up for email updates to my occasional articles here. Investors with interests in this area be sure to stop by Enduring Investments.
- Core CPI +0.18%, y/y rises to 1.77%. Pretty much as-expected on the headline figures.
- Was some market concern about a possible higher print following PPI, but there isn't much correlation.
- Note that the next two months of CPI will 'drop off' an 0.10% and an 0.05%, so we should get to 2% on core inflation by mid-September.
- Of course the Fed's target is ~2.25% on core CPI (since they tgt core PCE) so Fed can argue it's still below tgt. Uptrend may concern.
- Housing inflation on the other hand going to the moon
- This is great chart and it's the reason core never had a chance of entering deflation territory. & will go up. (retweeted Matthew B)
- Housing #CPI overall just hit 2% y/y. Primary rents 3.53%. OER, which is 24% of the whole CPI, rose to 2.95% from 2.79%. Wow!
- …our model for OER is at 3.1%, and the actual number HAD been lagging. I love it when a plan comes together.
- So housing drove core services to +2.5% y/y, core goods -0.4%.
- So if housing busted higher, what was the services offset? Medical care, 2.51% y/y vs 2.84% last month.
- WSJ argued earlier this month that is expected because under Ocare people are actually spending their own money.
- Within medical care, drugs went to 3.44% vs 4.05%, pro svcs went 1.83% from 1.58%, and hospital & related to 3.48% from 4.51%. So maybe?
- Yes, core PCE & core CPI are going to be rising. But core PCE won't be anywhere close to the Fed's tgt by Sep.
- Here is core and median CPI (the latter not out yet today) and core PCE.
- core commodities are about where they should (eventually) be, given rally in TW$. A bit ahead of schedule though.
- This chart means either that home prices are overextended or incomes need to catch up, or both.
- Here is our OER model that is based on incomes. Not a tight fit but gets direction right.
- I wondered about this when I paid $180/night for room in S. Dak. Hotel infl driven in part by fracking boom?
- probably would fit better if I used a regional lodging index rather than national, I suspect.
The summary of today's CPI release is that the underlying pressures remain the same, and the trends remain the same. The really interesting dynamic going forward isn't in CPI (although at some point when core goods starts to rise again, that will be quite interested), but in how the Fed reacts to the CPI. When they meet in September, core CPI will be around 2%, a bit shy of where the Fed's target is. But the uptrend will be clearly apparent, and core and median CPI will likely be closer to 2.5% than 2% by the end of the year.
So the interesting dynamic is this: even though inflation is below the Fed's target, and growth isn't great shakes, and there are risks to the global economic system in Europe and in China…will the Fed tighten in September anyway? If they do, then it will be surprising if only because the FOMC passed on many opportunities over the last five years which would have been much more accommodating (no pun intended) to a normalization of rates. Sure, if they now recognize that they should have tightened three years ago it shouldn't color their decision today – the best time to plant a tree may have been thirty years ago, but the best time that we can actually choose from is today – but the Fed hasn't usually been so limber in its reasoning. Especially with a very dovish makeup of the Committee, I would be surprised to see them hike rates unless inflation has surpassed their target and growth is pretty strong with global risks receding.
However, the strength of my view on that has been slipping recently. Although I think most of the Fed's talk on this point is mere bluster, we do have to pay attention when Fed speakers – and especially the Chairman – say the same things multiple times. While Yellen has expressed only an expectation that the Fed will raise rates later this year (and we have no idea how conditional that expectation is on stronger growth, on Chinese growth, on European volatility etc, she has said this multiple times and at some point I have to conclude she means it. I still think that the odds of getting rates even up to 1% in a single series of moves is slim, but I admit the more-consistent Fed chatter is worth listening to.
Summary of My Post-CPI Tweets
Below is a summary of my post-CPI tweets. ou can (and should!) follow me @inflation_guy or sign up for email updates to my occasional articles here. Investors with interests in this area be sure to stop by Enduring Investments.
- Core CPI prints +0.145…just misses printing +0.2, which will make it seem weak. We will see the breakdown.
- y/y core goes to 1.73% from 1.81%. A downtick there was very likely because we were dropping off +0.23%
- This decreases odds of Sept Fed hike (I didn't think likely anyway) but remember we have a couple more cpi prints so don't exaggerate.
- Core goods (-0.3% from -0.2%) and core services (2.4% from 2.5%) both declined. Again, some of that is base effects.
- fwiw, next few months we drop off from core CPI: +0.137%, +0.098%, +0.052%, and +0.145%. So y/y core will be higher in a few months.
- INteresting was housing declined to 1.9% from 2.2% y/y. But it was all Lodging away from home: 0.96% from 5.1% y/y!
- Gotta tell you I am traveling now and that reminds you the difference between rate and level. Hotels are EXPENSIVE!
- Owners' Equiv Rent +2.79% from 2.77%. Primary Rents 3.47% unch. So the main housing action is still up. And should continue.
- Remember the number we care about is actually Median CPI, a couple hours from now. That should stay 0.2 and around 2.2% y/y.
- At root, this isn't a very exciting CPI figure. It helps the doves, but that help will be short-lived. Internals didn't move much tho.
The last remark sums it up. While the movement in Lodging Away from Home made it briefly look like there was some weakness in housing, I probably would have dismissed that anyway. There's simply too much momentum in housing prices for there to be anything other than accelerating inflation in that sector. We have a long way to go, I think, before we have any topping in housing inflation.
But overall, this was a fairly boring figure. While the year-on-year core CPI print declined, that was due as I mentioned to base effects: dropping off a curiously strong number from last year. (That said, this month's core CPI definitely calms things a bit after last month's upward surprise). However, the next few base effect changes will push y/y core CPI higher. While today's data will be welcomed by the doves, by the time of the September meeting the momentum in core inflation will be evident and median inflation is likely to be heading higher as well.
Note that I don't think the Fed tightens in September even with a core CPI at 2% or above, but the bond market will get very scared about that between now and then. Could be some rough sledding for fixed income later in the summer. But not for now!
Summary of My Post-CPI Tweets
Here is a summary of my post-CPI tweets. You can (and should!) follow me @inflation_guy or sign up for email updates to my occasional articles here. Investors with interests in this area be sure to stop by Enduring Investments.
- CPI Day! Exciting. The y/y for core will "drop off" +0.20% m/m from last yr, so to get core to 1.9% y/y takes +0.29 m/m this yr.
- Consensus looks for a downtick in core to 1.7% y/y (rounding down) instead of the rounded-up 1.8% (actually 1.754%) last mo.
- oohoooooo! Core +0.3% m/m. y/y stays at 1.8%. Checking rounding.
- +0.256% m/m on core, so the 0.3% is mostly shock value. But y/y goes to 1.81%, no round-assist needed.
- Headline was in line with expectations, -0.2% y/y. Big sigh of relief from dealers holding TIPS inventory left from the auction.
- Core ex-shelter was +0.24%, biggest rise since Jan 2013. That's important.
- This really helps my speaking engagement next mo – a debate between pro & con inflation positions at Global Fixed Income Institute. 🙂
- More analysis coming. But Excel really hates it when you focus on another program while a big sheet is calculating…
- It's still core services doing all the heavy lifting. Core goods was -0.2% y/y (unch) while core services rose to 2.5% y/y.
- Core services has been 2.4%-2.5% since August.
- Owners' Equivalent Rent rose to 2.77% y/y, highest since…well, a long time.
- Thanks Excel for giving me my data back. As I said, OER was 2.77%, up from 2.69%. Primary rents frll to 3.47% from 3.53%.
- Housing as a whole went to 2.20% y/y from 1.93%, which is huge. Some of that was household energy but ex-energy shelter was 2.67 vs 2.56
- Or housing ex-shelter, ex-energy was 1.14% from 0.67%. Seems I am drilling a bit deep but getting housing right is very important.
- Medical Care +2.91% from 2.46%. Big jump, but mostly repaying the inexplicable dip from Q1. Lot of this is new O'care seasonality.
- Median is a bit of a wildcard this month. Looks like median category will be OER (South Urban), so it will depend on seasonal adj.
- But best guess for median has been 0.2% for a while. Underlying inflation is and has been 2.0%-2.4% since 2011.
- And reminder: it's median that matters. Core will continue to converge upwards to it, (and I think median will go higher.)
- None of this changes the Fed. They're not going to hike rates for a long while. Growth is too weak and that's all they care about.
- For all the noise about the dual mandate, the Fed acts as if it only has one mandate: employment (which they can't do anything about).
- The next few monthly core figures to drop off are 0.23%, 0.14%, 0.10%, and 0.05%.
- So, if we keep printing 0.22% on core, on the day of the Sep FOMC meeting core CPI will be 2.2% y/y, putting core PCE basically at tgt.
- I think this is why FOMC doves have been musing about "symmetrical misses" and letting infl scoot a little higher.
- US #Inflation mkt pricing: 2015 1.1%;2016 1.8%;then 1.8%, 2.0%, 2.0%, 2.1%, 2.2%, 2.3%, 2.4%, 2.5%, & 2025:2.4%.
- For the record, that is the highest m/m print in core CPI since January 2008. It hasn't printed a pure 0.3% or above since 2006.
There is no doubt that this is a stronger inflation print than the market expected. Although the 0.3% print was due to rounding (the first such print, though, since January 2013), the month/month core increase hasn't been above 0.26% since January 2008 and it has been nearly a decade since 0.3% prints weren't an oddity (see chart, source Bloomberg).
You can think of the CPI as being four roughly-equal pieces: Core goods, Core services ex-rents, Rents, and Food & Energy. Obviously, the first three represent Core CPI. The breakdown (source: BLS and Enduring Investments calculations) is shown below.
Note that in the tweet-stream, I referred to core services being 2.4%-2.5% since August. With the chart above, you can see that this was because both pieces were pretty flat, but that the tame performance overall of core services was because services outside of rents was declining while rents were rising. But core services ex-rents appear to have flattened out, while housing indicators suggest higher rents are still ahead (Owners' Equivalent Rent, the bigger piece, went to 2.77%, the highest since January 2008). Core goods, too, look to have flattened out and have probably bottomed.
So the basic story is getting simpler. Housing inflation continues apace, and the moderating effects on consumers' pocketbooks (one-time medical care effects, e.g., which are now being erased with big premium hikes) are ebbing. This merely puts Core on a course to re-converge with Median. If core inflation were to stop when it got to median, the Fed would be very happy. The chart below (Source: Bloomberg) supports the statement I made above, that median inflation has been between 2% and 2.4% since 2011. Incidentally, the chart is through March, but Median CPI was just released as I type this, at 2.2% y/y again.
But that gentle convergence at the Fed target won't happen. Unless the Federal Reserve acts rapidly and decisively, not to raise rates but to remove excess reserves from the banking system (and indeed, to keep rates and thereby velocity low while doing so, a mean trick indeed), inflation has but one way to go. Up. And there appears little risk that the Fed will act decisively in a hawkish fashion.
Summary of My Post-CPI Tweets
Below you can find a recap and extension of my post-CPI tweets. You can follow me @inflation_guy or sign up for email updates to my occasional articles here. Investors with interests in this area be sure to stop by Enduring Investments.
- Core CPI+0.23% m/m is the story, with y/y upticking to 1.754% (rounded to +1.8%). This was higher than expected, by a smidge.
- Core services +2.4% y/y down from 2.5%. But core goods -0.2%, up from -0.5% last mo and -0.8% two months ago. Despite dollar strength!
- Core ex-housing rose to 0.91% y/y from 0.69% at the end of 2014. Another sign core inflation has bottomed and is heading back to median.
- The m/m rise of 0.20% in core ex-shelter was the highest since Jan 2013.
- Primary rents 3.53% y/y from 3.54%; OER 2.693% from 2.687%. Zzzzz…story today is outside of housing, which is significant.
- Accelerating major groups: Apparel, Transport, Med Care, Recreation (32.1% of index). Decel: Food/Bev, Housing, Educ/Comm, Other (67.9%)
- …but again, in housing the shelter component (32.7% of overall CPI) was unch at ~3% while fuels/utilities plunged to -2.26% from flat.
- [in response to a question "Michael we have been scratching our heads on this one… is it some impact of port strike do you think?"] @econhedge I don't think so. But core goods was just too low. Our proxy says this is about right.
- @econhedge w/in core goods, Medical commodities went to 4.2% from 3.9%, new cars from 0.1% to 0.3%, and Apparel to -0.5% from -0.8%.
- @econhedge so you can argue Obamacare effect having as much impact as port strike. But it's one month in any case. Don't overanalyze. 🙂
- Medicinal drugs at 4.46% y/y. In mid-2013 it was flat. That was a big reason core CPI initially diverged from median. Sequester effect.
- @econhedge Drugs 1.70%, med equip/supplies 0.08% (that's percentage of overall CPI). 8.7% and 0.4% of core goods, respectively.
- Median should be roughly 0.2%. I have it up 0.21% m/m and 2.22% y/y, but I don't have the right seasonals for the regional OERs.
- Further breakdown of medical care commodities: the biggest piece was prescription drugs, +5.74% y/y vs 5.19%. The other parts were lower.
The main headline of the story is that core inflation rose the most month-over-month since May. After a long string of sub-0.2% prints (that sometimes rounded up), this was a clean print that would annualize to 2.7% or so. And it is no fluke. The rise was broad-based, with 63% of the components at least 2% above deflation (see chart, source Enduring Investments, and keep in mind that anything energy-related is not part of that 63%) and nearly a quarter of the basket above 3%.
This is no real surprise. Median has consistently been well above core CPI, which implied some "tail categories" were dragging down core CPI. These tail categories are still there (see chart, source Enduring Investments), but less than they had been (compare to chart here). Ergo, core is converging upward to median CPI. As predicted.
The next important step in the evolution of inflation will be when median inflation turns decisively higher, which we think will happen soon. But that being said, a few more months of core inflation accelerating on a year/year basis will get the attention of the moderates on the Federal Reserve Board. I don't think it will matter until the doves also take notice, and this is unlikely to happen when the economy is slowing, as it appears to be doing. I don't think we will see a Fed hike this year.
Summary of My Post-CPI Tweets
The following is a summary of my post-CPI tweets. You can follow me @inflation_guy (or follow the tweets on the main page at https://mikeashton.wordpress.com)
- Core CPI +0.14%, close to rounding to +0.2%. An 0.2% would have caused a panic in TIPS, where there have been far more sellers recently.
- y/y core to 1.73%, again almost rounding to 1.8% versus 1.7% expected. This just barely qualifies as being "as expected", in other words.
- Core services fell to 2.4%, but core goods rose to -0.3% y/y.
- OER re-accelerated to 2.71% from 2.68% y/y. It will go higher.
- really interesting that core goods did not weaken MORE given dollar strength. $ strength is overplayed by inflation bears.
- Apparel went to 0.5% y/y from 0.0%. That's the category probably most sensitive directly to dollar movements b/c apparel is all overseas.
- Accel major groups: Food/Bev, Apparel, Recreation (24.1% of basket). Decel: Housing, Transp, Med Care, Educ/Comm (72.5%).
- Though note that in housing, Primary rents rose from 3.18% to 3.29%, and OER from 2.68% to 2.71%, so weakness is mostly household energy.
- That's a new high for primary rental inflation. Lodging away from home also went to new high, 5.04% y/y. But it's choppier.
- Airfares continued to decelerate, -3.01% from -2.71%. Ebola scares can't have helped that category, which most expected to rebound.
- But these days, airfares are very highly correlated to fuel prices (wasn't always the case). [ed note: see chart below]
- In Medical Care, pharmaceuticals rose to 3.08% from 2.72%. But the medical services pieces decelerated.
- Decel in med services is the surprise these days as the passage of the sequester cause positive base effects.
- The weakness in med services holds down core PCE, too. Median CPI continues to be a better measure as a result.
- College tuition and fees 3.36% from 3.32%. Still low compared to where it's been. Strong markets help colleges hold down tuitions.
- Core CPI ex-housing partly as a result of continued medical care weakness is down to a new low 0.877% from 0.911%.
- That continues to be the horse race: housing versus a wide variety of other things not inflating. Yet.
We may hear about how this CPI report shows that there is "still no inflation," but the simple fact is that the report was a little stronger-than-expected, that shelter inflation continues to accelerate with no end in sight, and that there was no large effect seen in core inflation from the strength of the dollar. The dollar has an evident effect on energy commodities, and a lesser effect on other commodities, but once you get to finished goods it takes a larger FX move or one longer in duration than the modest dollar rally we have had so far to cause meaningful movements in inflation.
The dollar's strength, reflecting in energy weakness, also shows up in some categories where we don't fully appreciate the link to energy. The airfares connection is always one of my favorites to show. Prior to 2004, there was basically no correlation between airfares and jet fuel prices (vertical part of the chart below). After 2004, the correlation went to basically 1.0 (see chart, source Enduring Investments).
The real conundrum in the CPI right now is the medical care piece. We always knew there would be difficulties in extracting what is really going on in medical care once Obamacare kicked in, because many of the costs of that program don't show up immediately as consumer costs. But the main effect in the data all last year was the effect of the sequester on Medicare payments, which pushed down Medical Care inflation from over 4% in mid-2012 to 2% in 2013. But as the sequester passed out of the data, Medical Care CPI rose to nearly 3% earlier this year…and then slipped, abruptly, back to the lows (see chart, source Bloomberg).
Is it possible that Obamacare is really restraining consumer inflation for medical care? Sure, it is possible. But there is far too much noise at this point to know what is happening in that component. And it really matters, because the overweighting of medical care and underweighting of housing in core PCE is the main reason that the Fed-favored price index shows 1.5% while median CPI is at 2.2%, within a snick of the highs since the crisis (see chart, source Bloomberg – note median CPI isn't out yet for September).
From a markets perspective, the TIPS market (and the commodities market, for that matter) have been pricing in a pernicious disinflation and/or deflationary pressure. It is simply not there. And so, even with a print that couldn't reach 0.2% on core, and even heading into a big auction tomorrow, inflation breakevens are rallying nicely, up 3.5-4.5bps across the board. Imagine what they would have done with a print that was a bona fide strong print!
Setting Up For a CPI Surprise?
Heading into the CPI print tomorrow, the market is firmly in "we don't believe it" mode. Since the CPI report last month – which showed a third straight month of a surprising and surprisingly-broad uptick in prices – commodity prices are actually down 4% (basis the Bloomberg Commodity Index, formerly known as the DJ-UBS Commodity Index). Ten-year breakeven inflation is up 1-2bps since then, but there is still scant sign of alarm in global markets about the chances that the inflation upswing has arrived.
Essentially, no one believes that inflation is about to take root. Few people believe that inflation can take root. Indeed, our measure of inflation angst is near all-time lows (see chart, source Enduring Investments).
…which, of course, is exactly the reason you ought to be worried: because no one else is, and that's precisely the time that often offers the most risk to being with the crowd, and the most reward from bucking it. And, with 10-year breakevens around 2.22%, the cost of protecting against that risk is quite low.
I suspect that one reason some investors are less concerned about this month's CPI is that some short-term indicators are indicating that a correction in prices may be due. For example, the Billion Prices Project (which is now Price Stats, but still makes a daily series available at http://bpp.mit.edu/usa/) monthly inflation chart (shown below) suggests that inflation should retreat this month.
However, hold your horses: the BPP is forecasting non-seasonally-adjusted headline CPI. The June seasonals do have the tendency to subtract a bit less than 0.1% from the seasonally-adjusted number, which means that it's not a bad bet that the non-seasonally-adjusted figure will show a smaller rise from May to June than we saw April to May, or March to April. Moreover, the BPP and other short-term 'nowcasts' of headline inflation are partly ebbing due to the recent sogginess in gasoline prices, which are 10 cents lower (and unseasonally so) than they were a month ago.
But that does not inform on core inflation. The last three months' prints of seasonally-adjusted core CPI have been 0.204%, 0.236%, and 0.258%, which is a 2.8% annualized pace for the last quarter…and accelerating. Moreover, as I have previously documented the breadth of the inflation uptick is something that is different from the last few times we have seen mild acceleration of inflation.
None of that means that monthly core CPI will continue to accelerate this month. The consensus forecast of 0.19% implies year/year core CPI will accelerate, but will still round to 2.0%. But remember that the Cleveland Fed's Median CPI, to which core CPI should be converging as the sequester/Medical Care effect fades, is at 2.3% and rising. We should not be at all surprised with a second 0.3% increase tomorrow.
But, judging from markets, we would be.
This is not to say I am forecasting it, because forecasting one month's CPI is like forecasting a random number generator, but I think the odds of 0.3% are considerably higher than 0.1%. I am on record as saying that core or median inflation will get to nearly 3% by year-end, and I remain in that camp.
Summary of My Post-CPI Tweets
Following is a summary of my post-CPI tweets. You can follow me @inflation_guy!
- Well, I hate to say I told you so, but…increase in core CPI biggest since Aug 2011. +0.3%, y/y up to 2.0% from 1.8%.
- Let the economist ***-covering begin.
- Core services +2.7%, core goods still -0.2%. In other words, plenty of room for core to continue to rise as core goods mean-reverts.
- (RT from Bloomberg Markets): Consumer Price Inflation By Category http://read.bi/U60bLJ pic.twitter.com/R2ufMjVRRM
- Major groups accel: Food/Bev, Housing, Apparel, Transp, Med Care, Other (87.1%) Decel: Recreation (5.8%) Unch: Educ/Comm (7.1%)
- w/i housing, OER only ticked up slightly, same with primary rents. But lodging away from home soared.
- y/y core was 1.956% to 3 decimals, so it only just barely rounded higher. m/m was 0.258%, also just rounding up.
- OER at 2.64% y/y is lagging behind my model again. Should be at 3% by year-end.
- Fully 70% of lower-level categories in the CPI accelerated last month. That's actually UP from April's very broad acceleration.
- That acceleration breadth is one of the things that told you this month we wouldn't retrace. This looks more like an inflation process.
- 63% of categories are seeing price increases more than 2%. Half are rising faster than 2.5%.
- Back of the envelope says Median CPI ought to accelerate again from 2.2%. But the Cleveland Fed doesn't do it the same way I do.
- All 5 major subcomponents of Medical Care accelerated. Drugs 2.7% from 1.7%, equip -0.6% from -1.4%, prof svs 1.9% from 1.5%>>>
- >>>Hospital & related svcs 5.8% from 5.5%, and Health insurance to -0.1% from -0.2%. Of course this is expected base effects.
- Always funny that Educ & Communication are together as they have nothing in common. Educ 3.4% from 3.3%; Comm -0.24% from -0.18%.
This was potentially a watershed CPI report. There are several things that will tend to reduce the sense of alarm in official (and unofficial) circles, however. The overall level of core CPI, only just reaching 2%, will mean that this report generates less alarm than if the same report had happened with core at 2.5% or 3%. But that's a mistake, since core CPI is only as low as 2% because of one-off effects – the same one-off effects I have been talking about for a year, and which virtually guaranteed that core CPI would rise this year toward Median CPI. Median CPI is at 2.2% (for April; it will likely be at least 2.3% y/y from this month but the report isn't out until mid-day-ish). I continue to think that core and median CPI are making a run at 3% this calendar year.
The fact that OER and Primary Rents didn't accelerate, combined with the fact that the housing market appears to be softening, will also reduce policymaker palpitations. But this too is wrong – although housing activity is softening, housing prices are only softening at the margin so far. Central bankers will make the error, as they so often do, of thinking about the microeconomic fact that diminishing demand should lower market-clearing prices. That is only true, sadly, if the value of the pricing unit is not changing. Relative prices in housing can ebb, but as long as there is too much money, housing prices will continue to rise. Remember, the spike in housing prices began with a huge overhang of supply…something else that the simple microeconomic model says shouldn't happen!
Policymakers will be pleased that inflation expectations remain "contained," meaning that breakevens and inflation swaps are not rising rapidly (although they are up somewhat today, as one would expect). Even this, though, is somewhat of an illusion. Inflation swaps and breakevens measure headline inflation expectations, but under the surface expectations for core inflation are rising. The chart below shows a time-series of 1-year (black) and 5-year (green) expectations for core inflation, extracted from inflation markets. Year-ahead core CPI expectations have risen from 1.7% to 2.2% in just the last two and a half months, while 5-year core inflation expectations are back to 2.4% (and will be above it today). This is not panic territory, and in any event I don't believe inflation expectations really anchor inflation, but it is moving in the "wrong" direction.
But the biggest red flag in all of this is not the size of the increase, and not even the fact that the monthly acceleration has increased for three months in a row while economists keep looking for mean-reversion (which we are getting, but they just have the wrong mean). The biggest red flag is the diffusion of inflation accelerations across big swaths of products and services. Always before there have been a few categories leading the way. When those categories were very large, like Housing, it helped to forecast inflation – well, it helped some of us – but it wasn't as alarming. Inflation is a process by which the general price level increases, though, and that means that in an inflationary episode we should see most prices rising, and we should see those increases accelerating across many categories. That is exactly what we are seeing now.
In my mind, this is the worst inflation report in years, largely because there aren't just one or two things to pin it on. Many prices are going up.


text:
I'm getting married! After what seems like years of waiting (ok what was actually years of waiting) I finally get to plan a wedding! Oh also, the man I love more than anyone in the entire world wants to spend the rest of his life with me. So that's pretty awesome too.
The only down side: it turns out weddings are expensive. Like, REALLY expensive. And weddings in the UK (i.e. GBP) are the most expensive of all. So how in the world am I going to plan a dream wedding on a shoestring?
Well first, I guess we should talk shoestring. The fact is that my parents are successful professionals and extremely generous people. They're going to help us out, so M and I got incredibly lucky there.
But they're also not the kind of people who are willing to blow $50,000 on a wedding, and frankly, neither am I. I would much rather buy a flat and take a fantastic trip than spend thousands and thousands of dollars on flowers.
That being said, I'm not totally willing to give up the wedding of my dreams. I just have to figure out how to do it for £10,000. This is going to be fun!

subset: commoncrawl


text:
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1 These terms and conditions are entered into between you and Able Skills Ltd, a company registered in the UK with registration number 5492477 and registered office at Unit K5 Riverside Industrial Estate, Riverside Way, Dartford, Kent, DA1 5BS. By booking on to a course offered through Able Skills Ltd, you accept these terms and conditions in their entirety.
2 Able Skills Ltd reserves the right at its sole discretion to decline to accept any application for enrolment on any course. On certain courses, you may be required to undertake an interview or testing process (whether by telephone or otherwise) before enrolment. If your enrolment is accepted, but it subsequently transpires (at Able Skills Ltd discretion) that the course is not appropriate for you, Able Skills Ltd shall be entitled to cancel your enrolment at any time (subject to a refund of fees already paid by you, unless cancellation is because of your own misconduct or non-compliance with these Terms and Conditions or with any Able Skills Ltd rules).
3 Whilst Able Skills Ltd will take all reasonable steps to make courses as inclusive as possible, participation in any course requires that you are able to understand spoken English and write and read proficiently in English. Workshops and assessments will require a reasonable level of physical fitness and health. If you have any doubt about your fitness to participate or your health, you should discuss this with Able Skills Ltd before enrolment (and/or seek a professional opinion from a qualified medical expert). Able Skills Ltd will accept no liability for any adverse consequences arising from your participation in a course, by virtue of an insufficient level of fitness or any health condition.
4 Upon enrolment for any course, you agree to pay for the course in accordance with these terms. This is subject (if applicable) to any right of cancellation you may have by law to cancel the course and any contractual cancellation right agreed by Able Skills Ltd (as set out at terms 9, 10 and 11 below).
5 Payment of Fees
5.1 All course deposits are to be paid at the time of booking and balance payments will be detailed in invoices issued to you following your booking. Balance payments can be made by credit/debit card or BACS transfer, over the phone or in person.
5.2 Able Skills Ltd may, in its entire discretion, accept payment in instalments (whether weekly or otherwise), although reserves the right to demand payment in full of any outstanding balance due at any time.
5.3 If paying by weekly instalments, payment can be made by credit/debit card or BACS transfer
6 Exceptions to Standard Payment Terms
6.1 For some qualifications (for example which are longer than the norm) Able Skills Ltd may at its discretion offer different payment terms to you. However, once the booking has been made, the agreed course payment terms cannot be changed. You will be required to complete a written contract detailing payment terms.
6.2 The City & Guilds 2394/2395/2391 and 2396 courses must be paid in full by the final examination registration date in order for your examination paper to be prepared.
7 Non-payment of balances
Failure to pay course balances or instalments by the due date or as detailed on your invoice may, in Able Skills Ltd sole discretion, result in you being unable to sit your course and exam.
Failure to pay the course balance in full for C&G 2394, 2395 and 2396 qualifications will mean your final exam registration will not be completed and therefore you will not be able to attend the course and sit the exam.
8 Course Paperwork
8.1 The course confirmation letter and Able Skills Ltd joining instructions (regarding booking, cancelling and course date changes) will be confirmed and sent to you by email and by post. The confirmation letter contains detailed information regarding the course qualifications, start dates, payment information, balance information if applicable and venue. Please read this carefully.
8.2 Copyright in all course materials is owned or licensed by Able Skills Ltd. Copying, adaptation or other use without the written permission of Able Skills Ltd is strictly prohibited.
9 Your Rights to Cancel – Phone /Internet Bookings Only
9.1 Booking a course via the internet or the telephone is deemed by law to be a booking by distance which will be subject to the Consumer Contracts (Information, Cancellation & Additional Charges) Regulations 2013 ('Distance Selling Regulations'). The Regulations do not apply to courses booked in person. The Regulations allow you 14 days (starting after the day in which you entered the agreement) to cancel the contract (the "Cooling Off Period"), unless the course you have booked commences within that 14 day period or it is otherwise agreed that the services will commence within that 14 day period (including but not limited to pursuant to 9.2 below).
Booking a course that commences within the 14 day Cooling Off Period means that the Regulations will not apply and you will therefore be giving up your right to cancel. Money paid will therefore not be subject to a refund upon cancellation.
9.2 Cancelling a Course inside the Cooling Off Period
You acknowledge and consent to the fact that it will sometimes be necessary to register for courses booked by you, within the 14 day Cooling Off Period, in order to ensure that your place is secured on the course. In these circumstances, you consent to the commencement of our services (being the arrangement and booking of the course for you) within the Cooling Off Period, pursuant to Regulation 13(1)(a) of the Regulations.
In these circumstances, should you decide to cancel the booked course within the 14 day Cooling Off Period you will be charged a fee to cover the costs related to that booking which have already been incurred. The usual registration fees (subject to change) are as follows:
Single Courses £50.00 inc vat.
Package courses and C & G 2365/2357 £150 inc vat.
We are able to accept an initial email notifying us of cancellation but this must then be confirmed by letter.
9.3 Trade and Commercial bookings (i.e. bookings made by businesses rather than individual consumers) will be deemed to amount to a business to business transaction in respect of which the Regulations will not apply to. You will therefore be liable to pay the full course fee if you cancel before the date of the course (subject to Able Skills Ltd sole discretion over whether it chooses to offer any refund).
10 Course Cancellations outside the Cooling off Period
10.1 Should you wish to cancel a course that you have booked, outside of the Cooling-Off Period allowed under the Regulations, written notice of cancellation is required (this includes letter or fax), to the registered office address of Able Skills Ltd. We are able to accept an initial email putting us on notice but this must then be confirmed by letter, received by Able Skills Ltd within the 21 day period allowed under 10.2 below, if any refund is to become due. Failure to send the written cancellation (confirmed by letter if necessary) before the balance due has been paid will result in the balance becoming due in full.
10.2 Should you wish to Cancel a course that you have booked and having agreed to pay via instalments (the standard terms of 21 day period not being applicable) - should you wish to cancel more than 14 days before the course starts you will be charged the next instalment due on your confirmation document. Should you wish to cancel 14 days or less the full balance will become due. Once you have started should you wish to cancel or not attend any part of the qualification booked you will be liable for full payment and no refunds will be issued.
10.3 Exceptions: Pre-registered Qualifications.
10.4 Should you book a course that commences within 21 days of the booking date, or if written notice is not received by Able Skills Ltd at least 21 days before the course starts you will be liable for the full amount and will not be entitled to a refund or be able to move the course to another date.
10.5 Fees excluding deposits are refundable if written cancellation is received by Able Skills Ltd more than 21 days prior to your course start date, otherwise the full fee becomes payable. This is subject to the exceptions at term 10.6 below. Course Deposits are non-transferable.
10.6 Exceptions: Pre-registered Qualifications:
In respect of Pre-registered Qualifications, pre-registration has to be carried out in advance to prepare and order the Examination Papers from City & Guilds. Once this has taken place should you not attend or wish to cancel, you will not be refunded the course balance as per the other qualifications.
Pre-registered Qualifications include the following courses:
City & Guilds 2394
City & Guilds 2395
City & Guilds 2396
10.7 On the courses shown above, written cancellation must be received by Able Skills Ltd before your final examination registration date takes place. Provided the written cancellation has been received, if you have paid in full you will be entitled to the balance being refunded but the deposit remains non-refundable. You will then be withdrawn from the qualification register.
10.8 If you have paid a deposit only, it will remain non-refundable. You will be withdrawn from the qualification register and the course balance will not be called for.
10.9 Deposits are non-transferable
10.10 Should you wish to cancel after the final examination registration has taken place you will not be entitled to any refund due to the order already being processed.
All course deposits are non-refundable except where the 14 day Cooling Off Period applies. Booking registration fees will apply.
11 Absences
Please ensure that when attending you complete the course, as once the course has started, it cannot be completed at a later date. You will not be entitled to any refund for any absence.
11.1 Extreme weather conditions - In the event of extreme weather conditions, Able Skills Ltd will ensure we are able to provide a full service by using a number of contingencies. We expect all students to plan ahead to ensure they are able to attend.
If a student is not able to attend due to extreme weather conditions such as heavy snow, strong winds, flooding or public transport disruptions / cancellations. Able Skills Ltd in such instances, will not be deemed liable. Refunds will not be issued and the company will not be obligated to offer any alternative course dates. However, each case will be reviewed.
12 Non- Attendance Due to Exceptional Circumstances
If you are unable to attend due to exceptional circumstances, a new date may be offered at the discretion of Able Skills Ltd subject to the date your course commences. You may be asked for supporting documents to prove the exceptional circumstances alleged. A new date will not be offered, whatever the circumstances, for courses 2394/2395/2396, for the reasons sent out at term 14 below. Whether or not circumstances shall be deemed "exceptional" shall be at the sole discretion of Able Skills Ltd
13 Course Changes
Should you wish to make any date changes to courses or any course package modules, you will be charged an administration fee of £50. All course change requests must be made with a signed letter. Course moves will be made at the discretion of Able Skills Ltd and can only be made once.
Course moves can only be made if there are more than 21 days before your course starts. Less than 21 days notice before the course commences it will be too late make course changes due to the to the City & Guilds enrolment, registration fees, exam scheduling procedures, class and tutor allocation which would have taken place.
Able Skills Ltd will not move your course if it is one of the exceptions listed at term 14 below or if your course starts 21 days or less from the date your letter is received.
It is the bookers responsibility to provide the right candidate details at the time of booking.
14 Exceptions to Course Changes
The following courses, once booked, cannot be moved (whatever the reason), due to the City Guilds enrolment and scheduling procedures which take place a number of weeks prior to the examination date (as once the final registration and exam scheduling has taken place you will not be able to be move from the course and examination list).
City & Guilds 2394
City & Guilds 2395
City & Guilds 2396
15 General Booking Note
Able Skills Ltd reserves the right to alter booking arrangements if necessary and has the right to refuse any booking application, at its sole discretion. The course qualification route booked is the correct route at the time of booking. Qualification routes are subject to change. Should any changes be made by the Awarding bodies to qualifications, Able Skills Ltd will endeavour to change your qualification route, however will not be liable to you in any way as a result of such changes. Duration and cost may be affected, which you accept. All training must be completed within 1 year from the date of booking.
16 Disclaimer Regarding Advice Given – Please Read Carefully
16.1 All advice given regarding career paths, abilities to join registration bodies, qualification advice or other career opportunities is correct at the point of enquiry. This may be subject to change and is beyond the control of Able Skills Ltd. Able Skills Ltd cannot be held responsible for changes to other organisations' joining requirements or qualification pre-requisites. No refunds will be issued in the event of changes mentioned above.
16.2 Any opinions expressed by the course tutor represent his/her own views and not necessarily those of Able Skills Ltd and Able Skills Ltd shall have no responsibility for them.
17 Warranty and Exclusion of liability – Please Read Carefully
18 Compliance with Able Skills Ltd Rules
18.1 You agree to observe the rules of Able Skills Ltd as notified to you in writing or by any other means from time to time.
18.2 We may cancel your enrolment without reimbursement of fees if you commit a serious or repeated breach of the enrolment terms or Able Skills Ltd rules or are guilty of gross misconduct (at Able Skills Ltd discretion).
19 Data Protection – Please Read Carefully
Any telephone calls may be recorded by Able Skills Ltd for administrative or training purposes (which you consent to). Unless otherwise stipulated in your enrolment form, Able Skills Ltd may use your personal data for administrative purposes and may keep this information for a reasonable period and by booking a course you give your consent to Able Skills Ltd doing so. Able Skills Ltd may contact you by email, postal mail, or telephone to let you know about any courses or promotions which might be of interest to you. If you do not wish to receive such emails, postal mails, SMS or telephone communications, please email us at email@example.com. to state that you wish to opt-out from such communications.
20 Third Party Bookings
If you have booked the course for another person ("the Student"), these terms and conditions shall be binding on you and the Student and you warrant and undertake that you have the appropriate legal authority to sign on their behalf and to consent to the processing of their personal data and to receive any fair collection notices on their behalf. References herein to "you" shall also mean or include the Student, where appropriate. It shall be your responsibility to ensure that these terms and conditions are brought to the notice of the Student and that the Student complies in full with them and you shall be liable for any failure by the Student to do so. You shall indemnify Able Skills Ltd in full against any loss, damage or liability resulting from your failure to comply in full with this term 20.
21 No Guarantee of Success – Please Read Carefully
Completion of the course does not guarantee your competence to perform work or your ability to gain employment in the relevant field and Able Skills Ltd makes no representation, warranty or guarantee as to such competence or ability. In undertaking any work, you must take care to ensure that the work is within your competence and you must seek further instruction or supervision, if necessary. Any statement made to you by Able Skills Ltd or its staff regarding the likelihood of obtaining employment and/or your potential earnings shall be treated as a matter of opinion and not representation and shall be non-binding.
22 General
Assessments and examinations are governed by the accrediting body and Able Skills Ltd accepts no liability for them. The cost of any re-sits shall be borne by you. Exams are supplied to Able Skills Ltd by the accrediting body. Able Skills Ltd will not be liable for any costs or compensation sought by candidates if for any reason the accrediting body is unable to supply the exam in digital or paper format on the expected date.
Additional Time in Exams: Please note that in some circumstances additional time can be given for exams providing you can submit evidence (must be a psychological report). This will need to be submitted at least 1 month before the start of your course in order for the accreditation body to grant approval. The decision to grant additional time is made solely by the accreditation body.
Photographic ID: Please note that any exams accredited by a body such as City & Guilds, BPEC, NICEIC or other will generally require that you provide photographic ID. As such please ensure you bring a passport or driving license with you when you attend your course.
23 You must complete all payments and successfully complete your course prior to issue of your certification.
24 Any complaint about the course should be notified to the Centre Manager at the address contained in the enrolment form.
25 Any notice to be given by either party to the other may be properly given by posting it to the address of the other party shown on the enrolment form or to such other address as the other party shall have notified in writing as its address for service of notices.
26 If for any reason any of these terms or part of any one of these terms is found by a court of law to be illegal, invalid or unenforceable, then that term or part of that term shall be amended to the minimum extent necessary to make it legal, valid and enforceable and the remaining terms and (if applicable) part of term shall remain in full force notwithstanding the amendment made.
27 These terms and conditions shall be subject to English law and any disputes hereunder, if not capable of resolution between the parties, shall be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction of the English courts.
T&C's Updated 12.20: 04th August 2017


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Preparing for Legions of Nagash – painting progress
I'm excited about the forthcoming Battletome: Legions of Nagash! We know that it will cover 6 allegiances, with 4 completely new ones called the Grand Host of Nagash, Legion of Blood, Legion of Sacrament and Legion of Shadows. These overall force names seem much better than the generic sounding Deathrattle for example, and will hopefully enable us to build a thematic force without having to cross … Continue reading Preparing for Legions of Nagash – painting progress


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Celluloid Nightmares has picked up rights to three titles heading into Toronto, including Midnight Madness opener Fubar II.
The international sales partnership between Hengameh Panahi's Paris-based Celluloid Dreams and Los Angeles-based XYZ Films will represent worldwide rights on the thriller A Horrible Way To Die, North American rights on the documentary Machete Maidens Unleashed!, and international rights on Fubar II.
Mark Hartley's Machete Maidens Unleashed! will premiere in the Real To Reel programme and celebrates Filipino genre films.
Fubar II, the sequel to cult Canadian comedy, reunites the hard-partying Terry and Dean as they go in search of work at an industrial plant. Michael Dowse wrote and directed.
Playing in Vanguard is A Horrible Way To Die from Adam Wingard about an escaped serial killer who blazes a violent trail across the country in order to find the person responsible for putting him behind bars.
Celluloid Nightmares' other credits include Simon Rumley's Red, White & Blue and Norwegian action-comedy Norwegian Ninja.
XYZ Films was founded by Nate Bolotin, Nick Spicer and Aram Tertzakian and partner Todd Brown heads up acquisitions. Celluloid Nightmares' Travis Stevens is in charge of international sales.


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Beyond the Whiteboard
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We all have aesthetic and performance goals. Often these are the goals that drive our daily actions and commitments. But, whether we realize it in the moment or not, human beings also have an innate desire to live long, fulfilling lives. It is a goal we all share. It is embedded in ou
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Deskbound: Sitting Is The New Smoking
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Do you sit a lot for work? Do you have a long commute to work via train or car? Maybe you do a lot of flying? Odds are you, like most Americans, spend a good portion of your days sitting. How is it then that something so seemingly necessary to our lives could also be so harmful? In Ke
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Toughness Knows Not Gender
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This is a shoutout to all of the strong and beautiful CrossFit Kinnick women. Each and every day they are helping to change the landscape of possibility for future generations of young girls with big dreams. Toughness knows not gender.
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Better Than Ever: Laurie Hansen
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We recently had the honor of hosting CrossFit HQ media at our Upland location. They wanted to do a story on our box and it's members. The result was an outstanding piece on one of our long-time morning members, Laurie Hansen, and her close relationship with Coach Jeremy Kinnick.
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Break The Addiction
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The more knowledge you are equipped with, the better decisions you'll be able to make. Get in the habit of checking food labels so that you can stop consuming unwanted sugar. The food industry is making Americans addicted to sugar, and hardly anybody realizes it. You'll be
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Double Under Month!
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It's double under month at CFK, and that means more WOD's with jump ropes, and more extra work geared towards double unders. Let this be the month that you either get your first double under, your first set of consecutive double unders, or your first big set (20+) of conse
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Hips or Miss
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If you don't let the bar get to your hips before jumping while Snatching, you will die. Kidding! Kidding! But you will miss your lift. CrossFit recently posted this gem of a drawing on their Instagram page and I had to repost. Not only is it hilarious, but it's incredibly
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CrossFit Kinnick – 2016 CrossFit Games Seasons
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The 2016 CrossFit Games were an exciting time for CrossFit Kinnick. We've had time to reflect on all of the ups and the downs that come with prepping for such a big event, and, while this year brought new/different elements to a typical CFK season, it was still just as exciting!
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Generally, in the African society, whenever there are problems of infertility among couples, the first person to be suspected is the wife. She may be accused of having done several abortions as a single girl, through which her womb may have been damaged. Yet, she may be innocent, as studies have shown that male factors account for between 20 and 30 per cent of infertility; 40-50 per cent with the woman, while between 30 and 40 per cent are due to problems in both man and woman.
When situations like that arise, the woman becomes desperate and visits many places, from spiritual healer to fetish shrines and other places where, on the long run, she may end up with a complicated problem.
For one, most unorthodox treatments that she is likely to be offered usually end up contributing to fallopian tube blockage, kidney damage, and, sometimes, tubal damage, among others. In other words, what is supposed to be the solution is, sometimes, a contributory factor to her infertility problem.
Experts say it is wrong to engage in medications without proper supervision by competent medical personnel. And if there is anywhere where this is true, it is in the treatment of infertility. This is because there are many organs of the body that are involved in the process of conception and child delivery. This is why problem of infertility must be tackled with caution and by those who have been trained to treat it.
Experts say conception and pregnancy are complicated processes that comprise the production of healthy sperm by the man, healthy eggs from the woman, unblocked fallopian tubes that allow the sperm to reach the egg, and the ability of the fertilised egg to implant in the uterus and grow in a good environmental and hormonal condition.
"If one of the processes is impaired, infertility can be the result," they say.
Many factors are responsible for infertility among men and women, and while many are traceable to individual lifestyle, others are due to environmental factors.
According to the American Fertility Association, recent studies suggest that toxins in the environment are not only damaging the reproductive capacities of men and women, exposure to ubiquitous dioxins such as cigarette smoke, lead and mercury, and some agricultural pesticides are known to be direct threats to a couple's ability to conceive or achieve a healthy pregnancy.
Corroborating this research reports, a Nigerian fertility expert, Prof. Oladapo Ashiru, notes that in the female, the causes of infertility include obesity (associated with polycystic ovarian syndrome and endocrine disorders), increased maternal age, hormonal imbalance, stress, infections, toxins from the environment and improper nutrition.
Male factors are said to be due to deficiencies in semen and semen quality, erectile dysfunction and genetic factors which are as a result of environmental toxins, as well as toxins produced from diet, which leads to hormonal imbalance and infertility.
"The accumulation of these toxins from the environment will begin to manifest by the time a man reaches age 40-55 years. At this time, men experience an ageing phenomenon similar to the female menopause called andropause. This is as a result of gradual decline in the level of testosterone," Ashiru explains.
He noted that based on clinical presentation, "the number of men with low sperm count is on the increase. The statistics has shot up from 15 per cent in men to 40 per cent."
Shedding more light on the issue, he said male infertility could be divided into: problems with ejaculation or erection; problems within the fine, small reproductive tract ducts; and problems with sperm production.
"Problems with sperm production is by far the most common of the three, and can be detected during semen analysis," he said.
In case of women, Ashiru says a woman's age is probably the most significant factor related to her ability to conceive. However, in addition to age, there are a number of conditions that can interfere with a woman's fertility.
About 20 per cent of female infertility can be attributed to tubal causes, which can be as a result of Pelvic Inflammatory Diseases, infection during medical procedures, when fecal matter comes into contact with the vagina, high fever in children, endometriosis, polycystic ovarian syndrome, pituitary tumors and sundry other reasons.
According to a 2004 edition of the American Journal of Gynaecology, in one study of couples undergoing high-tech infertility treatments, researchers concluded that a man's chances of fathering a child decreases with each passing year.
In the study, the odds of a successful pregnancy fell by 11 per cent every year; while the couple's chances of obtaining a successful live birth declined even further. "In such situation, the man receives medications to make the semen viable," Ashiru says.
Though the picture painted so far about the problem of infertility among couples seems dire, that is not to say that there is no solution. 'naturalfertilityinfo,' a website focusing on many aspects of natural fertility, infertility, and reproductive health, asserts that herbs have been found to be supportive for reproductive health issues.
"If you are having difficulty becoming pregnant, you and your partner may want to return to herbs for fertility. Herbs have been used to promote fertility for thousands of years and can be considered to be a form of natural fertility medication," it says.
Consequently, fertility specialists have developed herbo-mineral preparations that have been tested and proven to help otherwise infertile women to become fertile by toning and preparing the endometrium (the membrane lining the uterus) for the best conception environment.
Men are not left out, as a gender-appropriate natural medicine has been developed to add value to the spermatozoa, thus boosting it in terms of quality and quantity.
To help couples achieve their desire of having children, Charak Pharma of India has developed some herbo-mineral formulations that have been deployed in the successful treatment of infertility for over 50 years.
Two of such drugs are the M2-Tone for women; and Addyzoa for men. The herbal-based drugs regularise and strengthen factors of fertility in men and women respectively.
M2-Tone is a rational combination of scientifically well studied herbs such as Saraca indica, whose bark is reported to have stimulating effect on the uterine and ovarian tissue; and is said to be useful in the scientific treatment of several ailments, including menstrual cramps, some cases of uterine bleeding, uterine fibroids, haemorrhoids (pile), and internal bleeding.
Another integral herb in M2-Tone is Symplocos racemosa. Apart from the fact that its extract could be used as a gargle for giving firmness to spongy and bleeding gums, or in the treatment of haemorrhage, acne, pimples and eye diseases, it is also used by Ayurvedic doctors for various female disorders, including menstrual disorders. Terminalia chebula, another component of M2-Tone, is highly regarded for its extraordinary healing powers and is believed to eliminate all waste from the body, and also promote tissue growth and health. Adhatoda vasica was traditionally used by midwives at the time of delivery because it is an agent that tones, strengthens and invigorates the uterus or the entire organism, giving a feeling of well-being.
A study on M2-Tone published in the journal of South Asian Federation of Obstetrics and Gynaecologists, notes that "M2-Tone improved the endometrial blood supply as assessed by latest imaging technique, 3D Color Doppler Ultrasound; and is known to improve pregnancy rate by up to 31 per cent."
The report notes further that, "M2-Tone harmonises hormones in women to ensure regular menstruation, normal ovulation (release of ovum at regular monthly intervals) and provides nourishment to endometrium for a healthy baby to grow."
Addyzoa, which also comes in form of capsules, is a combination of potent herbs like Ashwagandha (Withania somnifera — which regenerates cells, and enhances sex drive, among others); Guduchi (Tinospora cordifolia — which increases the activity of the body's immune system); Amalaki (Emblica officinalis, which is efficacious in preventing aging and improving different glands in the body); Vidarikanda (Ipomoea digitata, an aphrodisiac and rejuvenative herb); and Kavach beej shuddha (Mucuna pruriens, used in the treatment of nervous and sexual diseases).
Based on this combination, therefore, Addyzoa is reputed to ensure the improvement of sperm production on all three parameters such as count, motility and morphology.
Recent clinical trials done at the All India Institute of Medical Sciences, New Delhi, India, and published in Indian Journal of Urology, notes that Addyzoa capsules benefit men by improving sperm motility, resulting in improved chances of conception by their female partners.
A nutritionist/psychologist who specialises in the natural approach to female hormone problems, Dr. Marilyn Glenville, argues that "The natural approach to fertility is and has been enormously successful, largely because fertility is multi-factorial, meaning that there are many, many elements that can be at the root of fertility problems."
Addyzoa and M2-Tone are marketed exclusively in Nigeria by Fidson Healthcare Plc, and they are available in all leading pharmacies all over the nation.
Source: The Punching.com


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"I even managed to sneak the word 'Polar Bear' into The Antarctic Dictionary. 'No, there are no polar bears in Antarctica. Nor penguins in the Arctic'."
From that little sentence, I was hooked. I never considered that reading a dictionary would be fun. I tried years ago to read an Oxford English version, but did not get very far. So it was a surprise to put on my nerd-goggles and realise that The Antarctic Dictionary would be a fascinating read!
For sure, the world's most isolated continent has spawned some of the most unusual words in the English language. The dictionary uses the earliest historical use of the word as examples when providing the definition. Legendary explorer Sir Ranulph Fiennes describes it as written with 'dark witty humour' in his foreword.
The brains behind the book is Dr Bernadette Hince, a researcher and dictionary-editor from Euroa, Victoria (in Australia!!) with an interest in Antarctica and the Arctic. She wrote her PhD on sub-antarctic lands and I met her when she came by Nuuk, Greenland to attend a conference. Discussing heritage and change in the Arctic, the conference was held at Ilisimatusarfik, University of Greenland. She's currently working on a new dictionary with polar words.
Writing dictionaries is not really a profitable job, Hince said, but it's a pleasurable past-time which has taken her places.
It was her first time in Greenland, and she enjoyed getting out in the evening and early morning to view the many auroras dancing about in the night sky. The Northern lights were spectacular this week, that was for sure!
Reading through the dictionary, I found a few words which clarified the difference between the Arctic and Antarctica. Such as polar continent.
polar continent – The antarctic continent. Antarctica is the polar continent: polar land and ice surrounded by ocean; the North Pole is the neat reverse, an oceanic pole surrounded by land.
There were some similarities between the two places:
polar light – from 1901 – a source from Bernacchi, Louise, saying "At this season of the year the curious and impressive spectacle of the Polar Light was frequently observed. This, which in the Northern hemisphere is the Aurora Borealis, is, in contradistinction, called the Aurora Australis in the Southern Hemisphere. In appearance, however, they differ very little."
polar blackout – An unusually large injection of solar charged particles into the polar ionosphere, often leading to high frequency (3-20 MHz) radio communication failure across the continent. Such events may last for days, occur simultaneously in Antarctica and the Arctic, and are also called 'polar cap absorption' events.
Jonas thought that the term ice widow could be used both north and south. It describes a man or woman who is left alone at home because the adventurer is out in Antarctica. When he or she is out, the one at home is an ice widow/er. That is so true. For all the love stories I've heard here in Greenland, it's also a polarising place that can separate loved ones, either through distance, technology or nature.
People also loved hunting for whales in the south too:
Whale sickness – A discontent or depression engendered among whalers by a lack of whales to hunt.
1971 example from Antarctic Housewife: During a slack period when whales were scarce, he developed an attack of 'whale-sickness', a common psychological complaint attributed to inactivity and a lack of whales. Whale-sickness manifested itself in various ways, truculent behaviour, moping and imaginary complaints being typical symptoms for which there is only one cure – a good catch of whales.
There was also an official word for being crazy in love with the other coldest region on Earth:
antarcticitis – a yearning for Antarctica
1964 example from journal of the ANARE club (Melbourne): Many of you suddenly turn up in the Explorer's Arms "just for a chat" or "just to find out what is going on." If you see yourself here, you are not only like a bird in a cage, but you are also suffering from Antarcticitis, or in certain cases, Macquarie disease."
Isn't it wonderful? More about the dictionary can be found on the CSIRO webpage.
5 differences between the Antarctic and the Arctic:
- Antarctica has the south pole, the Arctic has the North pole.
- Besides research stations, Antarctica is not inhabited by people. The Arctic has indigenous peoples.
- Antarctica is as far as 60 degree north, whereas the Arctic is as far as 50 degrees south
- Antarctica has almost no vegetation, mostly lichens. The Arctic has tundra and flowering plants.
- Finally, the one we learnt already – there are no polar bears in the Antarctic. Nor are there penguins in the Arctic.
Related articles
- Differences between the Antarctica and the Arctic (arcticantarcticcollection.com)
- Polar bears in advertising (thefourthcontinent.com)
- The stock market or , what informs your Greenlandic world view? (thefourthcontinent.com)
- Polar bears and penguins (sarahbethdurst.blogspot.com)


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Before tackling the actual merits of The Girl Next Door, I'd like to pose a question: Who, exactly, is the target audience here? It's not so much the material itself that makes me ask, but the movie's pop-rock soundtrack.
Presumably, this film is aimed at audiences just barely old enough to qualify for admittance to an R-rated film — yet the first song heard is the 1980 David Bowie-Queen hit "Under Pressure." Thematically, it's a good choice for what's taking place onscreen; still, it's probably not a song in too many CD players among the 17-to-24-year-old set. That goes even more so for later tracks — Thunderclap Newman's "Something in the Air" (1969) and Harry Nilsson's "Jump Into the Fire" (1971) aren't well known outside of classic rock circles. To top it off, the film concludes with The Who's "Baba O'Reilly" (also 1971).
I have nothing against these songs being in the film (I certainly relate to them more than I would to much in the way of newer music), but they seem odd choices. Perhaps they simply express the tastes and interests of the filmmakers — in which case, there's more to director Luke Greenfield than I'd have ever thought based on The Animal, or to screenwriters Brent Goldberg and David Wagner (in light of Van Wilder, My Baby's Daddy and Saving Ryan's Privates). On the other hand, the soundtrack may simply be some kind of retro-hipness born of the movie's own somewhat elderly underpinnings.
On paper, the idea of a 17-to-18-year-old falling for the porn star who moves in next door probably looked really daring (at least to people who never saw Tadpole, which crossed many more taboos than Girl ever does). The resulting film, however, is essentially a reworking of Risky Business, with the porn star standing in for the traditional hooker-with-the-heart-of-gold (herself a concept as old as the movies).
The pleasant surprise here is Girl's certain good-natured sense of fun, its consistently likable performers and its screenplay blessed with enough improbable convolutions to keep the basic retread entertaining. Is the movie as morally objectionable as some critics have claimed? Probably so — provided that you take it with a seriousness I doubt the film intended.
Let's get real here: This is a teen comedy, not a weighty contribution to culture. In that light, Girl is a good deal funnier, more clever and better done than most such offerings. Its successes are in part because the film actually captures some sense of the pressures of being a teenager (even with the romanticized characterization of the porn star to one side).
The movie may not be concerned with realism, but Matthew Kidman (Emile Hirsch, The Dangerous Lives of Altar Boys) and his friends Eli (Chris Marquette, Freddy Vs. Jason) and the improbably named Klitz (Paul Dano, The Emperor's Club) ring surprisingly true in a way rarely seen in this type of film. The rest of Girl may be little more than fantasy, but this aspect isn't.
And even the fantasy has its appeal. It's rare in teen comedies to find a genuinely menacing character, but the amoral, possibly psychotic and certainly dangerous porn producer played by Timothy Olyphant (Dreamcatcher) is indeed menacing — not in the least because there's also something unsettlingly appealing about his character. For that matter, Elisha Cuthbert (Love Actually) as the porn star may not be believable, but she has an undeniable warmth and screen presence.
It's warmth that finally sets Girl apart from most such films; the characters are all likable in their way and the jokes rarely lean toward the usual formula (based on humiliation). The film doesn't even offer cruel comeuppances for its belligerent jocks, and that alone is a pleasant change.
No, this is no great movie masquerading as a teenage comedy. It is, however, considerably better than most others of its ilk.
— reviewed by Ken Hanke


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This is going to be the first post concerning my Erasmus semester in Thessaloniki, Greece.
On Friday (26th) evening I spent hours packing my suitcase along with two other bags. I don't know why it took me so long to do especially because I already started packing on Monday, when I bought a new suitcase. I sort of knew which things I still had to pack, but there was a feeling inside of me that made me so slow.
In the end I slept only about an hour during the night between Friday and Saturday (27th) because of being so slow at packing and needing to wake up at 2am. I was tired, but nowhere near as tired as I thought I'd be. It was time for last minute checking. Soon I was ready to go to the airport. I was planning on going by a bus due to it being emotionally easier, but I ended up getting a ride from a very nice person. I'm very grateful for the ride, it made leaving Finland behind easier. Of course, leaving Finland was difficult, especially leaving the people!
During the day I got to see 3 different airports, which was nice and boring at the same time. My first flight was from Helsinki-Vantaa to Frankfurt. The changing time in Frankfurt was only 50mins, and I was quite nervous about it. It was my first time ever changing the plane and I hadn't heard so many good things about the airport. Some people say it can be quite confusing. I thought it was quite clear and 50mins sure was enough time to move from the place A to the place B. My second stop was in Wien. I had to spend over two hours there, and yes I'm thankful for the free WiFi.
The last stop was Thessaloniki. When the plane was landing, I was admiring the beautiful view of the sea. It looked exactly as I thought Greece would look like. It made me smile. All my flights were by Lufthansa, and I consider it as a good company for flying. I know they have had a few strikes these past few weeks, but those didn't affect my traveling at all.
All the time I thought my suitcase wouldn't arrive to its destination at the same time with me because of having so many flights. I was happily surprised when I saw my suitcase coming to me. Then there was rush to get to my tutor's car quickly, because there's a free parking at the airport for 30mins. The first thing I noticed was how similar the driving style is to Turkey. I was in Turkey back in 2010, and noticed the same organized chaos. I mean traffic in Finland seems so safe compared to the one in Greece. People don't obey the speed limits, horns are used a lot, parking is crazy etc. I'm not saying driving in Finland is perfect because it surely isn't. Here I trust local drivers, I mean for them it's a well organized chaos.
Finally at around 4:30pm I arrived to my studio apartment and signed the rent agreement. It's not the kind of a studio that I was hoping for, but that will be another story. I'm thankful for my tutor for giving me a ride to this flat, I'm not so sure if I would have found it by myself.
When I was finally alone I noticed how tired I was emotionally and physically. I hadn't slept for a long time, so I was graving for some sleep. Instead of that I had to go grocery shopping due to stores being closed on Sunday. Later I ended up staying up late due to having so many thoughts in my mind. It was a difficult evening, but I made it. People who I talked with that evening made me feel a lot better, so thank you!
That conducts my first day of being an Erasmus student. More stories shall follow.
|A night view from my balcony.


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For the past two weeks, I had a science project on biochemistry!
Discussing with my dad, he stated anything "bio" he knew. He mentioned biofuel, which interested me, so I Googled it. I searched to find out that there are actually scientists who research and try to create healthier environment since the current one is not that safe to live in.
One assignment that dragged me was the Leaf fuel. Of course, when one hears it, the first thing that comes to mind is: "THEY ARE CREATING FUEL OUT OF LEAVES?" So let me rephrase that. The scientists are working on a leaf that is actually genetically engineered to capture much as photosynthesis as possible to create energy which later turns into fuel.
Cool, isn't it? Although, there are a few questions I wonder, what will be the price? Will there be consequences behind this? How long will it take?
For more info: http://www.planet-science.com/categories/over-11s/natural-world/2012/03/leaf-fuel-could-help-save-planet.aspx


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Blog Archives
Kids cost Cash …. But not as much as you might think.
The cost of having a child can seem daunting to some, but in reality, kids don't have to cost that much. Sure the cute baby stuff, and toys, and what-not can cost your right arm, big toe and a knee cap or two, but if you're smart, cost conscious and lead a modest life, they in reality, don't cost that much.
I've realized that a baby needs five basic things; a roof over their head, food, clothes, an education when they get older, and most importantly LOVE. With love, anything is possible (cliché, yes, not true, no).
We're very blessed as a family. We have generous friends who share used baby things (<3 hand me downs), grandparents who are able to 'spoil' our child, and we're both employed.
We save, and try to think before we buy (most of the time!). We still try to lead a modest life (I bring my lunch to work), we save our money, and put it where we think we will benefit most (be it family vacations, a need for a new car, or just plain old savings).
We paid off our debts (minus school loans, and our mortgage, but this is KEY), and cut back on things we don't have time for like cable (who has time for TV with a 4 month old AND a job). This makes time for the LOVE portion of baby needs. We spend time playing and chatting as a family. Most importantly, in the journey, we keep on learning. You can't put a price on that.
While trying to be economically efficient, we found we have become slightly greener.
When we bought our house we knew we would have to remodel the majority of our home, we "thought green to save green". We have installed new windows, insulation (our home had none on the exterior walls), new doors, and energy efficient lights. We're looking into getting a tank-less water heater (to save on space and money, and energy). All of this is money up front, but we had to do it, and spend it, so we wanted to get as much savings in the end out as possible.
We managed to lower our gas bill $200 in the course of the year, and electric was cut by $100. With that we've had extra money to save/spend on baby things we need. I always make sure to look at what we have, what we 'NEED' and compare it to what we want.
We've also started to go green with baby things.
I got tired of buying diapers, throwing away diapers, buying bags for the diaper genie, etc. ect.) Lil' man is a pee machine (as of late a poop machine too). We were spending $35 on a box of diapers that would last 2 weeks maybe. That was after cost comparing stores, signing up for coupons at Pampers.com, and printing out coupons from Target. So we switched to cloth. See previous post "Enter Cloth Diapers…switching over". I'm happy to say I haven't spent more than $10 on diapers in 2 months.
We still use Pampers Sensitive wipes (which I use a coupon for and buy in bulk), and collect the Gifts to Grow points to get our photos printed. I'm tempted to switch to cloth wipes, however 'baby steps.' I still need to have time after my 12 hour work day to be with my family, and not doing wash!
Switching to cloth was more money up front, but will be more cost effective in 2 months. We will have broken even, at that point. Then it's savings from there to potty training. In addition, if I wanted to save even more money, I could have used old school flats.
Side NOTE: Right now there is the flats challenge going on (#FlatsChallenge). You can read in detail about it here on the Cloth Diaper Blog. Basically, people who cloth diaper are being challenged to use flats and hand wash them.
Side NOTE2: So because I work in community development, I'm often hearing about impoverished areas that are looking to develop and change. These areas often do not have easy access to healthy food, grocery stores, etc. etc. Daycares don't accept cloth diapers, which would save parents money. I was reading this article, No Butt Left Behind and thought you might enjoy.
Back to the point here:
We clip coupons. I recall being a child and making fun of my mom for doing this, but it works. I'm not a crazy coupon'er like you can see on TLC's Extreme Couponing, but I do look through the Sunday paper for the coupons. I only clip the things we use. I watch for them to go on sale, and use the coupons. Yes it takes some time to figure out a system to make this work for you, but once you get started you can build on it and save.
This coupon idea goes for baby things as well. We have target, buybuyBaby, and BabiesRUs at our disposal. buybuyBaby and BabiesRUs accept competitors coupons if they are for a percentage off. Target lets you use manufactures'' coupons, and Target coupons, and then if you bring your own bag you get $.05 of, and as of late they have been offering in-store credit for certain purchases, so we save on our next visit as well.
We also are blessed and are able to use our family nearby for day care so we can work. There are advantages to living close to your in-laws!
Over all we're saving money on the things we need and use.
As for lil' man we find the only things we must have are clothes (side snap under shirts, and rompers, the rest he only wears once in a while if we go out, but he's so little, footed and non-footed sleepers are easiest). We will probably start formula soon. Diapers are taken care of, and then baby needs a safe place to sleep which could be a variety of things (we have a crib, but a pack and play would work just fine). The rest is optional. So there you go, for just a little, you can afford a kid.
I believe there is never a right time to have a baby financially. We live in a society where we always "NEED" more, and could put off baby for a long time, but if you think you're close to being ready, I say you probably are, just take a leap, not all great things can be planned!
Gardening 101 – How to…or wait you tell me!
I hate dirt. I've always HATED dirt. For as many summers as I can remember my mother would beg me to help her outside. She wanted me to plant flowers, vegetables for the summers we had a food garden, basically she wanted to teach me how to grow things: I'd refuse. I would have rather done anything than 'play' in the dirt.
Since buying our first home, and having a baby, I now respect my mom's beautiful garden beds and the hard work she put in outside over the years. I never thought I'd care about being outside and making things grow. I was determined to be a city, concrete loving girl forever. However, now that I have my son, I find I'm slightly more inclined to give growing things a try (and make an attempt to please my neighbors with a nice looking yard). Perhaps my mom did rub off on me!
I want the lil' guy to see how things grow, appreciate what it takes to put food on the table. I want him to know that getting dirty is ok, and then you can take a bath and be clean, only to get dirty all over again! I want him to see nature, know animals (my son loooves to follow our backyard chipmunk and crazy squirrels, he looks at it with awe in his eyes "whats that lil' thing running around mommy" style!), and then hopefully one day teach his kids (though this is waaaay down the road of course!) how to take care of a yard, how to grow things.
Even though I still don't like to get dirty, I am planting my first 'garden' this summer. So far it's going ok. I started my seedlings indoors, and I bought bags of Scotts Miracle-Gro Organic soil, some MOOnure organic comport with manure, and called my mom for directions. She told me to mix it together, by hand (which I did, with gloves of course), and to put it in my new cedar planter that my super handy husband built for me.
I decided to start small. I'm growing 2 tomato plants (in large pots), 2 cucumber plants (also in large pots), some green beans, a whole handful of herbs (basil, oregano, cilantro, parsley, chives and sage), bell peppers, finally for good measure and fun, baby carrots (which hopefully I can cook and mash-up for the lil' guy). We've also planted four types of small hot peppers 'for color.' (I'm really getting into this!). So let's see how the summer goes and what actually ends up producing vegetables for us to eat!
Do you have any growing suggestions, tips for keeping these lil' plants going and producing throughout the summer months!
What kind of outdoor garden stuff do you do with your kids? Do they like to play in the dirt? Do they have their own garden tools? A sandbox?
Let me know in the comments section! I could certainly use suggestions in the garden department*
*it should be noted; every plant I've ever owned has died, or almost died. I've desperately tried to grow them, but they never last more than a year. Usually right before they are dead I give them to my mom to 'bring them back to life'! She then gives them back to me and the whole cycle starts again! So fingers crossed, let's see how this goes!


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Measuring very low power beams of light can be tricky; even small values of noise, drift or offset can have major impact on your readings. In this video, we'll look at some best practices that can help you get the best performance from your very low power measurements.
At Photonics West 2017, Greg Staples focused on selecting different wavelengths for specific applications. Watch the video for wavelength selection guidance for precision agriculture, food sorting, mining, pharmaceutical quality control, and more.
This year at Photonics West, Erin McDonnel and Eric Felkel with Zygo gave us a glimpse into how their interferometers can be used to perform accurate surface metrology in adverse environments (like a trade show floor).
Eric Craven with Ophir Photonics provided us with a tutorial at DCS 2016 on how to co-align visible, near-infrared, and infrared laser beams through the use of a pyroelectric camera array coupled with beam profiling software.
Hyperspectral imaging technology has advanced significantly in the last 50 years, and Greg Staples with Bayspec talked with us for a few minutes at the 2016 SPIE DCS exhibition about how it has changed.
At Zygo' booth this year, Tyler Steele introduced us to the Verifire™ series of interferometers for the measurement of plano, spherical and aspherical surfaces and material characteristics. He then turned it over to Eric Felkel who showed us the Nomad™, a portable optical profiler for measuring topography and roughness on optical surfaces.
Dan Ford walked us through some of what was on display for laser beam profiling and analysis applications before sharing information on Ophir's high-power laser application initiative over the last year.


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A few years ago, my mom and dad gave us an ornament for our Christmas tree. It's a hollow tube with one end that comes off. It says, "Letters to Santa" on the side. This was the first year Miss was old enough to have an understanding of the idea of writing a letter to Santa to tell him what she'd like for Christmas. So yesterday we wrote a letter. Really, I wrote a letter and prodded her for the things she'd like to ask Santa for. She initially said, "A teddy bear." When I asked what kind of teddy bear, she said, "A pink one." This was news to me. Every other time I've asked her what she would like from Santa, she has said, "Care Bears," even going so far as to specify a few specific Care Bears. I have since purchased said Care Bears. These will be gifts from Santa. So, I must admit I kind of prompted her to include Care Bears and a few other things that "Santa" has already gotten her in her list to him. We also added a section to ask for things for Lass.
Then we rolled up the letter, put it in the tube, and hung it back on the tree. I told Miss Santa would come to get it while she slept.
This morning we got up and went to see if Santa had taken the letter.
He did, of course. Miss thought this was quite fun. I also used this exercise in sending a letter to Santa to introduce the "Elf on the Shelf" concept to our house. I had gone back and forth with myself about whether we were going to have an Elf this year. Once I learned about it, it seemed like a cute concept. Folks seem to have lots of fun with their elves. Miss's school has an elf they have named "Jingle." By the time I finally decided to go ahead and get an elf, I missed the "late November" time period when these elves are supposed to arrive. Oh well. Miss doesn't yet understand what "late November" means anyway. So, I decided to coordinate the arrival of the Elf with the disappearance of the letter to Santa. As in "Santa came last night and took your letter and, wow look!, he left an elf for us." Cool, eh? The book and box for the elf (we got "Christopher Pop-In-Kins" instead of the other Elf on the Shelf that lots of other folks get) were left under the Christmas tree where the ornament was hanging. We read the book together this morning. Then I pointed out to Miss that the box was empty, so the elf must be hiding! She found him pretty quickly (see the little elf below on the mantle in front of the white-framed photo of the girls). She was a little excited to find the elf and tell him "Hello," though I'm not entirely sure she understands the whole thing. It's okay. If nothing else it will be fun to hide the Elf each night and let her find him each morning.
And speaking of Elves... This little elf's sweet personality has just been blossoming! She is such a funny and feisty and loving little girl! Her big thing lately is giving kisses. A LOT of kisses. She'll just walk up and kiss me wherever she can reach me. On my knee if I'm standing. On my big belly if I'm sitting. On my arm if I'm changing her diaper.
Talk about holiday spirit!


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Hello Blog Friends, I've been wanting to set-up my own website for years, and now, I'm glad to inform you that it's finally here! Do check it out at http://www.adrianpantonial.com. It's still a work-in-progress. I hope to add a few more things there and make some changes here and there. But I will be posting … Continue reading Visit www.adrianpantonial.com
Tag: Social Networking
Seth Godin, Max Lucado, Jeremy Kubicek and Paulo Coelho…what do they have in common? They all can write short, sweet yet interesting and insightful blogs. They are my virtual teachers so I'm challenging myself to do likewise and here are few reasons why: Online readers have short attention span because They have so many places to … Continue reading Write Short, Please?
I just finished a personal experiment recently: 30-day No Facebook (FB) challenge from April 1-30, 2011 and I'm proud to say I survived! LOL! I challenged myself to do this because I've observed that my fixation to this online network is taking its toll in the way I use my time and handle my relationships with … Continue reading 16 Signs You're Addicted to Facebook