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Quasi Experimentation at Netflix
Colin McFarland, Michael Pow, Julia Glick
Experimentation informs much of our decision making at Netflix. We design, analyze, and execute experiments with rigor so that we have confidence that the changes we're making are the right ones for our members and our business. We have many years of experience running experiments in all aspects of the Netflix product, continually improving our UI, search, recommendations, video streaming, and more. Consequently, we've dramatically increased the maturity of the platform for A/B testing and the culture surrounding it. However, while A/B testing is a useful tool for many types of hypotheses, there are a few reasons that some hypotheses cannot be tested with an A/B test:
- It's just not technically feasible to have individual-level randomization of users as we would in a classical A/B test
- We can randomize but expect interference between users assigned to different experiences, either through word-of-mouth, mass media, or even our own ranking systems; in short, the stable unit treatment value assumption (SUTVA) would be violated, biasing the results
For example: We may aim to better understand the interaction effects of promoting a specific title in our member in-product experience while also doing so via out-of-home marketing efforts. Are the effects additive or do they cannibalize from one another?
How are we to measure the impact of the change? Usually, we'd like to run a classic individual-level randomized experiment but randomizing which individuals see a billboard ad, as an example, is not possible. However, while we cannot randomly assign individuals, we can randomly choose some cities within which to show billboards and other cities to leave without.
Now we can look for changes in the test regions at-specific-times as compared to the control regions at-specific-times. Since random changes happen all the time, we need to look historically to figure out what kinds of changes are normal so we can identify the impact of our test. We call this a quasi-experiment, because groups of individuals are assigned based on location rather than assigning each individual at random, and without the individual randomization there is a much larger chance for imbalance due to skewness and heterogeneous differences. The results of a quasi-experiment won't be as precise as an A/B, but we aspire towards a directional read on causality.
Improvements and Opportunities
How can we get more precise results from studies like the previous out-of-home marketing example? The majority of our development to date has been focused on improved test designs, not improved statistical models. Better models help most when there is rich data to support them, and for the marketing study, we know almost nothing about new members before they sign up. Instead, we can improve statistical power by increasing the number of comparisons we make. When the marketing materials are taken down, it is another opportunity to measure their impact, assuming a return to baseline signup rates.
Then we can put up out-of-home marketing in the unexposed regions, measure its impact, and take it down again for yet another measurement. In even more complex designs, we might not have any pure "control" regions at all, but if we ensure that there are always regions that are not changing at the time of intervention, we can still get a measurement of the impact.
In other situations, we might benefit more from more sophisticated models. For example, Netflix runs a content delivery network called Open Connect to stream content to our users. When we try to improve our delivery systems, we often need to make the change on an entire Open Connect server, without being able to randomize individual streams. Testing the impact of the improvements becomes another quasi-experiment, randomized at the server level. But we know much more about what is happening on the servers than we do about prospective members living in different cities. It is likely that we can make major improvements on our estimates through improved modeling as well as improved test design. For example, we could use pre-test information about which kinds of content are more or less likely to be served from each server; animation in SD is easier to stream successfully than action movies in UHD. Should we use blocking or matching designs? Or control for these differences using covariates?
Scaling Quasi Experiments
Over the past year, our marketing team has started to run a lot more quasi experiments to measure the business impact of marketing movies & TV shows across various canvases (in the member experience, in TV commercials, in out-of-home advertising, in online ads, etc.) towards the broader goal of maximizing the enjoyment of our content by our members.
Our success with quasi experimentation in marketing at Netflix subsequently spurred interest across many other teams to scale their own quasi experiment efforts, i.e. we'll be running a lot of quasi experiments. To scale further, we're developing a new product, called "Quasimodo" within the wider Experimentation Platform, to automate some aspects of the scientists workflow so we can free up our scientists and run more quasi-experiments in parallel.
We have 3 key ideas shaping our focus for Quasimodo:
- Netflix teams think most about the hypothesis generation and results interpretation, without worrying about the mechanical and operational aspects of running a quasi experiment
- We leverage best practices from A/B testing and consider how best to build a holistic experimentation platform to supports the ambitious scale of our efforts at Netflix
- A cross-functional team of scientists can constantly collaborate on the best ways to design and analyze quasi experiments, since this is an emerging area. It's crucial they can then graduate those ideas into a platform to benefit a wider audience of experimenters at Netflix
This is the first blog in a series around quasi-experiments here at Netflix. In the next blog we'll look deeper at experimental design and analysis of quasi experiments and share some of the features we've developed already to help scale quasi experiments. If these are the sort of challenges you'd like to help us with, we're hiring.


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A note to jg mains: If you gank my lane, don't last hit my whole wave of creeps after you gank
Title. If you want to push my lane, that's fine. Just let me (the adc) get the last hits on the wave. It really irks me when junglers clear waves after ganking. The last game this happened in I lost 40 cs before the laning phase was over because he wanted to push for the tower. I asked him nicely to not last hit because I was physically there trying to last hit them and he basically said too bad, the lane needs to be pushed. Do you realize you can push and still let me have the last hits? It's really easy to do. Hit each minion one or twice and let me aa each one once for the last hit. Thanks
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Ben Bartle-Ross of Mitsubishi Electric looks at what R32 systems mean for air conditioning installers.
R32 systems are now available in the UK and, if the experience we've had with our MSZ-LN units is anything to go by, then they will become common very quickly – especially with businesses who want the stylish new designs, or corporations that want to demonstrate their adoption of aircon with a lower GWP.
Does R32 need new tools?
Time for an R32 debate
32 reasons to get ready for change
The advice you need in the palm of your hand
The Decision is Up to EU
By the time you read this, the referendum to remain or leave the European Union will almost be upon us and, whilst I am not here to persuade you one way or the other, I think there is no doubt that whatever the result, it is likely to have an impact of some sort on our industry.
On the one hand, you can argue that our industry suffers from too much red tape and perhaps leaving the union will free us all from bureaucracy – or will it simply take us back to a more unregulated, less safe industry?
Trained to Take Control
Isn't it time you took control?
According to a recent survey by The Association of Plumbing and Heating Contractors (APHC) 70% of homeowners could not name a renewable heat source.
Yet other work done by the HomeServe Alliance found that one in three see intelligent controls as the future for managing heating bills and the same percentage believe that smart homes will help drive down energy bills in the coming years.
What I find interesting about this is not the lack of awareness of the potential cost savings that heat pumps can offer in the residential market – let alone the commercial one. It is the fact that intelligent controls for a home's heating system are registering as cost saving in the public psyche.
So why mention this in a column focusing on the commercial air conditioning sector?
We all know that the controls available for today's air conditioning systems offer far more potential than most building operators understand or use, whether through lack of training or time.
Yet effective use of whatever control system is in place offers an immediate option for saving energy and therefore costs.
Whether that is simply planning the scheduling more effectively to suit a building's requirements, or limiting the upper and lower limits of a set temperature, taking effective control of the controller is the quickest and best way of reducing energy bills.
As a trainer of air conditioning and heat pump engineers, I realise that it is not always possible to remember everything taught on that course you attended last year, or to carry bulky manuals to every site.
That's why I have just started producing short videos that can be watched on smart phones to highlight the simple things that can be done to programme controllers properly and effectively to maximise efficiency.
The first series focuses on our own PAR31 controller and more are planned, but the basic principles should apply to anyone's system.
So, whether you are handing over a new system to a building operator, or helping maintain an existing system, make sure you understand how to get the best out of it and your customers will thank you for it.
Ben Bartle-Ross is a Trainer at Mitsubishi Electric. Find four short PAR31 videos on the company's dedicated YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/mitsubishielectric2
These days almost everyone has a smartphone of some description and most manufacturers are aware of this and are developing Apps that aim to help engineers answer queries or get the information they need at their fingertips whilst they are out in 'the field', working on live projects.
By Ben Bartle-Ross, Technical Trainer, Mitsubishi Electric
At the time of writing, Britain has just had its hottest July day on record and this has to be good news for the air conditioning industry, which seems to naturally grow every time a scorching British summer makes people think seriously of the merits of air conditioning.
By Ben Bartle-Ross, technical trainer at Mitsubishi Electric
Hopefully everyone in the industry has work coming out of their ears and cannot find enough hours in the day to cope with demand.
But we all know what a fickle mistress the British weather is and for those whose air conditioning business is constantly reliant on the vagaries of the seasons, is there a way of ensuring more consistent business throughout the year?
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DOS forever.
MS-DOS books on Amazon.com!
— Mailman 3 hosting — buy link here
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On Sunday October 24, 2010 Mluis123 said:
Excelente post, muy original del primer windows nt en espa?ol.
On Tuesday July 27, 2010 Bigjake52 said:
You would not have an english verson on Floppy disks, Is there a way I can pull that out of my Nt disk?
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Krispy Kreme now open in Manila!
…and I got two boxes :)
…and I got two boxes :)
Classes in all levels have been cancelled today because of Typhoon Reming. I was expecting some heavy rains when I woke up this afternoon, similar to what happened when Milenyo hit last September. While the sky was dark and the temperature relatively low, there wasn't any drop of rain until this evening.
But that's not the point of this entry.
On the way to the post office this afternoon, I passed by SM North to withdraw from the ATM since the two banks close to where I live were both offline. To my surprise, it was packed! There were long lines of cars at the carpark entrance, even longer lines at the ATMs. Some are already on their way home, while others are just arriving. Some were stocking up their pantries as evident by the number of supermarket bags, while some are doing some serious shopping.
Yup, when there's a typhoon, your best refuge is the mall.
I thought I didn't hear my mother right when she said she's using hotdog flavored cheese for her macaroni salad.
Two hours later, I'm trying out the salad and wondered at the faint taste of hotdog in my cheese.
I suppose, if you can put cheese inside your hotdog, you can also put hotdog in your cheese. Mmmm.
Photo credit: Junk food blog.
My husband and I paid a visit to one of our favorite carinderias (food stalls) last weekend. We always look forward to the delicious home-cooked food they serve and the warm smiles that come with it. While we knew that this carinderia was already homey, this little touch of theirs made us even more enamored with the place! Instead of the usual white napkins, they served their utensils and plates with Christmas-themed table napkins. The simple festive touch made us feel the Christmas spirit more. Such wonderful Christmas joys from the little things!
"So what are you going to do this weekend?"
That question has been asked several times this week in anticipation of the coming 3-day weekend. Woohoo! There have been reports however of a typhoon headed our way. Again? Again. Reming was supposed to hit Manila spot on this Friday, but changed course as of last night. While it is moving north, it is still best to be prepared. We have experienced enough typhoons in this country to know how testy they can be.
So what are you going to do this weekend? Be safe, my fellow Manileños.
|The SM Mall of Asia has caught the Christmas spirit. There are decorations all around their mall! The picture shows one part of the mall (North Wing, I think) and its starry decor. I thought the stars were very pretty! They cast a lovely glow on the square below. See a closer view of the stars after the jump.
The Luneta Hotel along Dewey Boulevard (now Roxas Boulevard) faces Manila Bay. It is one of the few remaining classic architectures that stood the test of time. The once beautiful Pasig River is still being used to tranport people who choose to avoid traffic on land (water lilies still float in the polluted river).
The anime-ish artworks that sometimes appear in giant billboards in EDSA have got to be some of the more attractive marketing collaterals I've seen plastered on such medium. I find out that the man behind these, GP Magazine editor-in-chief and creative director Kenji Nunez, will mount his coming out exhibit "Neon World of KBoi: The Art of Kenji Nunez" on 30 November to 07 December 2006 at the Ricci Renzo Café and Art Gallery at the at the ground floor LRI Building, Nicanor Garcia St. (formerly Reposo St.) Bel-Air Village, Makati City. Nunez's artworks have debuted in magazines, print ads, internet sites, and, as I've mentioned, huge billboards. The 30 artworks that will be on exhibit feature Nunez's "interpretation of the pink community." And for the die-hard art collectors, the artworks will be on sale, proceeds of which will benefit the Gift Foundation which promotes AIDS awareness and prevention.
At long last, the Banana Leaf Asian Cafe at The Block in SM North EDSA finally opened.
I was elated, having been longing for some roti and char kway teow for so long, but not exactly excited about the prospect of having to go all the way to Ortigas, Makati or Harrison to get my Hainanese Chicken rice.
Where do you get your Chicken rice fix?
My sister in Melbourne told me that before they go out in the morning, they always check the weather forecast so they'd know what to wear and what to bring.
That got me thinking…in Manila, where the weather can either be blisteringly hot or wet and dreary, what we need to check everytime we go out is whether there's a rally scheduled somewhere.


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my latest help or should i say inspiration in my war with my lbs.
Friday, December 03, 2010
before i begin i will say i would not do this outside or at home if we have visitors.this is only for when i am at home alone or with my family.but as i need this more at home it is perfect.when you are outside and you feel like eating i find it is easier to control than inside.inside the food is there easily accessable,often there is no one around to see what or when i eat apart from ayman and he tells no one,when out i am usually with the older kids or my husband and because of my sons allergies he can´t eat te chocolate and biscuits etc like my other kids so i feel i can´t eat theese stuff either when he is around.or the food outside is not halah or when it is i haven´t usually got the money to buy it so you see it is easier outside to have more controll than at home.
right that being said i bet you are asking ,what is it?what is this fabulos help than can keep even me,karen away from chocolate at times(notice i said at times their is always the odd time when nothing or no-one can stop the chocolate urge.)those who suffer from this urge kniw what i am talking about.well it is pretty simple really.i have started to wear really,really tight fitting tops that really show everything i have so to speak.not only does it show how far i have come,how much i have lost it also shows how far i still have to go.no more hiding my rolls of fat any more.no not me,not me sir. not when i am home alone with my family.for the other times i still wear the baggy ,cover me all,make me look fatter while hiding my fat roll type of clothes.once again those who wear them know exactly what i am talking about.so everytime i feel like eating something i go look in the mirror in the hall.do you know what the first thing i see now when i look in the mirror?if you said my rolls of fat you would be wrong.surprising isn´t it!i see how thin i am.i know i can´t be officially thin at 217lbs but when you was 330lbs believe you me at 217lbs you feel thin.so horray that the first thing i see now is that i am thin.it is a good feeling that i don´t want to loose.then after that i start to look deeper and more objectively then i see the rolls of fat still there on my hips and belly,they are smaller but they are still there.after this i think and ask myself is it worth eating whatever it is and to undo all i have achieved.mostly the answer is NO and i will have nothing or a drink of water and if i am still hungry after a drink i will eat something healthy instead.when the answer is yes(this answer is coming fore less and less,dare i tempt fate and say that?)then i have a bit of what i want not all then go back and look in the mirror and ask myself if it is worth it.i repeat this process as often as it takes to either get a no answer or untill what ever the food i wanted is finished.but at least if i eat it i am eating slower this way than i usually would.
hope this could be something for some of you to try it is really helping me but what is helping me the most and proves to me i am now on the right track so to speak is that i see myself as thin now not fat.feeling fat helps no-one least of all yourself as it can lead to dissatifaction and depression which can lead to emotional/binge eating.maybe there is light at the end of the tunnel after all and maybe i am nearing it faster than i thought i would.
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Karen, I wanted to thank you for your very thoughtful reply to my blog.
About your entry above. I really like it. I lost 40 pounds and have kept 30 of it off. When I first lost it, a friend of mine took me clothes shopping and she made me buy some clothes that fit right to my skin. I started looking around and noticing that most women who are average shape where clothes that fit close to their skin to some degree but I have been wearing clothes that would cover me like a big sack, with no shape to them at all.
I found it interesting that I don't like to wear those clothes even around the house. The other day I noticed the one T-shirt in my closet that especially fits close to the body. Next time I think I am going to do a "give up" kind of day where I decide not to make any effort, I think I will try to make myself wear that top if I am around the house. If I won't make myself wear it, maybe I will make myself wear it the next day around the house to sharpen my memory of were I have come.
I understand about seeing yourself thinner. I was recently at a Christmas Party with my boyfriend and it was kind of crowded. Jim is average sized in weight and he was weaving in and out of the crowd. I figured I would need to excuse myself to get through between people right and left, but I didn't really. I fit through a much smaller space then I did even 30 pounds ago. What a revelation.
3292 days ago
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That is so awesome! Like in football, the best defense is a good offense. You go, girl!
3296 days ago
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Karen ~ You are SUCH an inspiration!!!! This is the best blog you have ever written!!!! I am gonna try what you are doing & see if that helps me get off tilt!!!! If it helped you, it will help me!!!! I am SO PROUD of you!!!! Thank you for sharing your personal journey, I know that is not easy!!!!
Hugzz ~ Jae
3296 days ago
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love it, very inspirational
3296 days ago
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Wonderful Blog Karen .... I just loved the honesty of it .. Yeah!.
This I think is the turning point ..When we can stop hiding and actually think ourselves as slimmer. You my friend have reached it !! well done love ... I am so very proud of you mt friend ... much love to you and your family ... Hugs Susie
3297 days ago
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Great idea Karen! Whatever works.
3297 days ago
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Karen, that's a terrific idea. Also like your getting a drink and seeing if you really are craving or hungry for something. You Go Girl! You are doing well. Thanks for sharing this with us. Wishing you continued success on your journey!
3297 days ago
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You've done so well coing this far. I think this is a great idea - a positive re-enforcement of all you have achieved and also re confirming that you still want to remain healthy and continue successfully.
Great plan and I wish you all the best with it.
3297 days ago
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There is a light at the end of the tunnel, Karen! I think it's so great that you are on the right track and see yourself as the thin person you are! You have accomplished so much on your journey and should be so proud!
3297 days ago
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That's a great idea, Karen! I've heard it done with your skinny jeans, too! Thanks for sharing!
Hugs! Beverly
3297 days ago
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Williams, L., Pasco, J., Henry, M., Sanders, K., Nicholson, G., Kotowicz, M. & Berk, M. (2011). Paracetamol (acetaminophen) use, fracture and bone mineral density. Bone,48(6), 1277-1281. Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bone.2011.03.435
Paracetamol is the most widely prescribed simple analgesic and antipyretic. It exerts its effects via cyclooxygenase and endocannabinoid pathways, which may affect signalling in bone cells and hence influence bone metabolism. Given the high rates of paracetamol use in the community and the evidence linking its mechanism of action to bone metabolism, we aimed to investigate the association between paracetamol use, fracture, and bone mineral density (BMD) in women participating in the Geelong Osteoporosis Study (GOS). Cases (n = 569) were women aged ≥ 50 years identified from radiological reports as having sustained a fracture between 1994 and 1996. Controls (n = 775) were women without fracture recruited from the same region during this period. BMD was measured at the spine, hip, total body and forearm using dual energy absorptiometry. Medication use, medical history and lifestyle factors were self-reported. There were 69 (12.1%) paracetamol users among the cases and 63 (8.1%) among the controls. Paracetamol use increased the odds for fracture (OR = 1.56, 95%CI 1.09–2.24, p = 0.02). Adjustment for BMD at the spine, total hip and forearm did not confound the association. However, incorporating total body BMD into the model attenuated the association (adjusted OR = 1.46, 95%CI 1.00–2.14, p = 0.051). Further adjustment for age, weight, physical activity, smoking, alcohol, calcium intake, medication use, medical conditions, falls and previous fracture did not explain the association. These data suggest that paracetamol use is a risk factor for fracture, although the mechanism of action remains unclear.
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