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Latin american journal of economics
versión On-line ISSN 0719-0433
Lat. Am. J. Econ. vol.48 no.2 Santiago nov. 2011
** Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile. E-mail address: firstname.lastname@example.com
This article analyzes long-term patterns of growth of the Chilean economy. Examining 200 years of data, it shows evidence in favor of using a neoclassical growth model to conduct the empirical analysis. It presents a formal analysis of structural breaks in the Chilean growth process, finding structural changes in 1929 and 1971/1981. A further analysis of the country's economic history indicates that fiscal policy, external shocks and trade policy are plausible explanations for these breaks. When these variables are included in the empirical model, the hypothesis of no breaks during these 200 years cannot be rejected.
JEL classification: O11, N16
Keywords: Chile, structural breaks, growth, fiscal policies, external shocks.
In 2010, Chile celebrated 200 years of independence. After 200 years of economic history, Chile now faces a different challenge: how to become a developed country. This paper analyzes these 200 years from the perspective of long-term economic growth using formal statistical analysis. The goal of this research is twofold: First, to find a plausible theoretical model that is coherent with the data-generating process of the per-capita GDP and labor productivity series. Second, to examine the economic policies conducted over the 200 years to identify structural breaks in the series and common factors that underlie those breaks.
Many authors have divided Chile's economic history into sub-periods marked by certain historical (economic and political) events. This paper, in contrast, uses statistical techniques applied to an empirical model derived from theory in order to identify structural breaks and thus define different sub-periods that characterize Chilean economic history. Thus, the data divides Chilean economic history into different episodes. A deeper analysis of those periods allows for the identification of policies (in the case of Chile, trade and fiscal policies) that are the main forces driving economic results during those periods. Extending the empirical model to include proxies for these policies and a proxy of external shocks, we show that the evidence of structural breaks disappears.
The paper is developed in several steps. The first step consists of determining whether an exogenous or endogenous growth model is more suitable for explaining Chile's process of economic growth. The unit root hypothesis (data generated by an endogenous growth model) is rejected in favor of an alternative hypothesis that the per-capita and per-worker GDP series are trend stationary with breaks. Second, following this evidence, the paper develops a simple neoclassical growth model. Its analytical solution enables an empirical specification to be estimated for the entire period. The Bai-Perron test suggests two breaks in each series: 1929 and 1971 for per-capita GDP and 1929 and 1981 for per-worker GDP.
The third step is to identify those facts that could explain these breaks. The country's economic history sheds light on the reason for these structural changes. Although the Great Depression appears to be the obvious reason for the first break, according to the literature, policy changes were occurring at the same time that could also explain it. An important question, then, is why didn't the economy return to its original level after a temporary shock such as the Great Depression? In fact, the economy did recover from the Great Depression, but per-capita GDP remained below the value predicted by the 1830-1930 trend. The hypothesis of this paper is that changes in the ways in which the government financed spending and the orientation toward trade are the main causes of this situation.
Regarding the second break, numerous reforms were implemented in the second half of the 1970s, directly contravening the increasing importance of the state in the economy that had occurred from 1940 to 1973. Again, reforms related to the role of the state and fiscal policy, in addition to the country's externally oriented development strategy, appear to be important reasons. Interestingly, by the end of this third period the economy was moving closer to its long-term trend. The question here is whether this recovery corresponds to a return to the trend or suggests that the economy was moving toward a different long-run equilibrium altogether. This question cannot be answered with the available data set, but deserves further study.
The last step consists of estimating an extended model that includes the ratio of government expenditures to GDP, average import tariff and terms to trade. According to this model, the hypothesis of no structural breaks during the 200 years of history cannot be rejected.
The paper continues as follows: Section 2 analyzes whether the evidence in the Chilean data favors an endogenous or exogenous growth model. With the results obtained, Section 3 develops a simple model with an analytical solution that leads to a univariate representation of per-capita and per-worker GDP. Section 4 presents the calculation and analysis of the structural breaks. Section 5 discusses plausible reasons for the breaks. In Section 6, an extended model is estimated to take into account the findings in Section 5, while concluding remarks are presented in Section 7.
A first step toward understanding the long-run evolution of the Chilean economy is to analyze the data-generating process behind per-capita GDP. Among the important implications of economic growth theory are the properties of the time series of per-capita income of an economy. The distinction between two classes of modelsexogenous or endogenous growthis based on whether transitory shocks, such as a temporary change in the investment rate, have a permanent effect on the level of per-capita GDP. Another way to test this is by checking whether permanent shocks, such as a permanent change in the investment rate, have an effect on the level or growth of per-capita income. This has been discussed at length in literature by Jones (1995), Lau (1997, 1999) and Kocherlakota and Yi (1997a,b).
Following Jones (1995), panel (a) in Figure 1 presents Chile's per-capita GDP from 1810 to 2009 and a deterministic trend line estimated for the entire sample. The trend seems to fit the data relatively well, with a slope of 1.52%. However, a closer look reveals that the trend line underestimates per-capita output over the last 15 years and overestimates per-capita income from the post-Great Depression period until 1991. The Great Depression was an enormous shock to the economy, so the question is: If the economy were to grow at the same rate as it did before the Great Depression, where would it be today? The answer to this question can be found in panel (b) of Figure 1. A linear trend was estimated using data from 1830 to 1930 and extrapolated for the subsequent years.1 This figure shows that under the influence of a significant, temporary shock such as the Great Depression, the economy suffered a drop in per-capita GDP which remained below the trend until 2008, when it reached the trend level once again. The long-term growth rate is 1.72%.2
This evidence suggests the presence of a unit root in per-capita GDP, since a temporary shock had a permanent effect on the level of per-capita GDP. Alternatively, one could argue that the economy experienced a structural change which did not allow it to return to the level given by the long-term trend.
In summary, the casual evidence could be interpreted as an exogenous growth model with a structural change in the trend. But in panel (b) the evidence also seems to suggest that the data is generated by an endogenous growth model, with an important negative, temporary shock in 1930 and another positive, temporary shock in the mid-1980s. A more formal test of these models is presented in the following sections.
2.1. difference or trend stationary?
The type of model used to explain the long-term performance of Chile's economy depends fundamentally on the data-generating process behind the per-capita GDP series. One of the attractive features of growth theory is that the implications of endogenous and exogenous growth models can easily be tested. Lau (1997, 1999) shows that a data-generating process for per-capita GDP that is consistent with endogenous growth models should be integrated of order 1. Unfortunately, the tests available are not powerful enough to completely discriminate between models; however, this is not a sufficiently strong argument not to proceed in applying them. Rejecting the null hypothesis of unit root lends support to the claim that an exogenous growth model could explain the evolution of per-capita GDP.
Chumacero and Fuentes (2006a) analyze the characteristics of the time series of per-capita GDP for 1810-1995 and find no evidence of unit root. This analysis is applied here using an additional 15 years of data. The traditional Augmented Dickey-Fuller test rejects the null of unit root (see Table 1). On the other hand, the Kwiatkowski, Phillips, Schmidt, and Shin (KPSS) test cannot reject the null that the series is trend stationary against the alternative of unit root. The Elliot Rothenberg and Stock (ERS) test is the only one that favors the null of unit root in the per-capita GDP series but not in the labor productivity series. More powerful tests such as the one developed by Ng and Perron (2001) also reject the unit root hypothesis. Zivot and Andrews (1992) develop a unit root test where the alternative joint hypothesis is that the series is stationary and there is a break in the level or the trend. The advantage of this test is that the break is endogenously determined by the data. As expected for such a long series, the null hypothesis of unit root is rejected.
The univariate analysis of the data tends to indicate that both per-capita and per-worker GDP are trend stationary. However, the evidence also points in the direction of a structural break in the series. The latter hypothesis is analyzed in the following section, using a more formal model.
In this section a simple version of the neoclassical model is examined. One of the main features of the model is the ability to generate trend stationary series of per-capita GDP. In order to have a closed-form solution, the model assumes preferences with a constant relative risk aversion equal to one and a Cobb-Douglas production function in a one-sector growth model. Consider a representative, infinitely lived household that maximizes.
where 0 < β; < 1 is the subjective discount factor, Lt is the size of the population (or labor force) at time t, ct = (C/L) is per-capita consumption in t,3 and Et is the expectation operator depending on information available at period t. The household supplies inelastically
where Kt is the capital stock at time t, ä is the depreciation rate, and a is the compensation for capital as a share of GDP. In this economy, technological progress is labor-augmenting and occurs at the constant rate 7. Production is affected by a stationary productivity shock z.. It is possible to rewrite the model in terms of effective unit of labor, k't = K / (1 + 7) and cf = cf / (1 + 7) which makes kt and Ct stationary. The solution of the stationary economy is the same as the above economy. This economy is characterized by the following problem:
This section is divided into two parts. First, following the guidelines of the neoclassical growth model developed in the previous section, a univariate representation for GDP is estimated. Second, structural break tests are applied to the model to check for eventual nonlinearities or omitted variable problems. The analysis of the structural changes based on Chile's economic history is provided in the next section.
Table 2 exhibits the least-squares estimation of (7). The model in the previous section is parsimonious and therefore it is valid to ask whether an AR(2) process for per-capita GDP is enough to obtain parameters with the desired properties. However, the results show that two lags of the dependent variable are sufficient to obtain white noise residuals. But there is evidence of auto-regressive conditional heteroscedasticity, and of the residuals not being distributed normally. This may suggest that other variables are missing from the analysis. The long-term trend in the growth rate is given by Φ1/(1 Φ2Φ3), which is equal to 1.6 percent, corresponding to the average growth rate of per-capita GDP over the entire period. The coefficients estimated are very similar for both equations, regardless of whether the dependent variable is per-capita GDP or per-worker GDP. Also, the sample is different for each equation, since there are no data on per-worker GDP before 1833.
It is difficult to believe that a stylized model such as the one presented here could explain the long-term growth process over 200 years without evidence of structural changes. Moreover, the Zivot and Andrews test presented in the previous section rejects the null hypothesis of unit root in favor of stationarity in the series of per-capita GDP with a break. Numerous events could lead to structural changes at different moments in time; therefore, it is hard to date the structural breaks. The Chow test is not appropriate in this situation because it requires knowing in advance when the breaks did occur.
Bai and Perron (1998, 2001) derive several tests for multiple structural breaks in linear models, such that the date of the break is not imposed by the researcher but is endogenously determined by the data. Table 3 shows the result of the Bai-Perron test for each equation presented in Table 2. The UDmax test rejects the null hypothesis of no break against the alternative of an unknown number of breaks, while SupFi(I) rejects the null in favor of the alternative of one break. Bai and Perron also developed a sequential break test to determine the number of breaks. SupF(j + 1 = j) tests the null hypothesis of j breaks against the alternative of j + 1 breaks. For both variables, per-capita and per-worker GDP, the SupF(2/1) test cannot reject the null of two breaks, but SupF(3/2) rejects the null of three breaks. The bottom row shows the most likely dates of the breaks. For both equations, there is clearly a break in 1929, the year the Great Depression began. Surprisingly, the second break shows a 10-year difference between the two models: 1971 for per-capita GDP and 1981 for per-worker GDP. We do not have a plausible explanation for this difference, but there are two elements worth noting. First, there is a confidence interval for the date of the break, which is [1969, 1973] for the per-capita GDP series and [1979, 1983] for the per-worker GDP series. These intervals do not overlap, which suggests that the dates are statistically significant. Second, there was a large difference in the unemployment rate (5.2% in 1971 and 15.5% in 1981), which could explain the significant difference between the dates of the breaks for these two series.
The next step is to estimate Equation (7) for each sub-period identified by the Bai-Perron test; the results are shown in Table 4. Notably, the persistence parameters (Φ2 and Φ3) and the instantaneous growth rate (Φ1)) vary across different time periods.4 The bottom part of the.
Table presents the implied long-term growth rate for each period. The first period shows the lowest growth rate of both per-capita GDP and per-worker GDP. The second period, which ends in a different year for each variable, exhibits a slightly higher growth rate than the first one. This analysis suggests that the shock associated with the Great Depression had a considerable Φ1) increased more during the second period compared to the first one (1.2% compared to 0.5%), but the persistence, specifically Φ3, changed in a way that reduced the long-term growth rate. In the last period (1972-2009 for per-capita GDP and 1982-2009 for per-worker GDP), Chile showed the fastest growth in its economic history. Per-capita GDP grew at 3.4% while labor productivity increased by 2.7% per annum, which is remarkably high compared to any other time period. The next step is to look at the main events or processes in Chilean economic history to find plausible explanations for these structural changes.
This section discusses historical episodes that could justify the structural breaks described in the previous section. There is an extensive body of literature that points to certain common factors such as trade regimes and government behavior to explain Chile's economic performance (Cariola and Sunkel, 1990; Meller, 1996; Lüders, 1998, and the references therein). Following these authors, we can define the episodes as a function of the orientation toward foreign trade and the government's role in the economy. In addition, the Chilean economy has been always dependent on natural resources, particularly minerals. Therefore, the relative price of these commodities may play an important role in shaping the country's economic performance. Table 5 summarizes the key features in these dimensions for the three periods defined in the previous section. The first period is 1833-1929, in which the growth rates of per-capita GDP and per-worker GDP were 1.8 and 1.9%, respectively. During this period the young republic began trading with new partners; prior to that, international trade had largely been limited to Spain. Chile's main exports were minerals (silver and copper before 1879, and nitrate after the War of the Pacific) and agricultural products (exported mainly to Australia and California in the mid-19th century). During the second period, after the Great Depression, the economy began a process of import substitution with an expanded state role in economic activity: government intervention peaked between 1971 and 1973. After 1974, the economy transitioned toward a free-trade model with limited state participation in economic activity, which Lüders (1998) refers to as a subsidiary role of the state.
It may be too simplistic to consider that only these features are relevant to understanding the growth process. However, the goal is to verify whether an examination of this element can explain structural changes in the evolution of per-capita GDP. Although there may be many significant historical episodes, here only those defined by the structural breaks are studied.
5.1. first structural change: 1929
The first break takes place in 1929. As mentioned by Lüders and Wagner (2003a), the Great Depression is viewed as a natural event that divided the economic history of the Western world. This is called the defining moment hypothesis.
There is little doubt that the Great Depression coincided with significant institutional and policy changes around the world, and particularly in Chile. However, that coincidence could be wrongly interpreted as causality. In the case of Chile, Lüders and Wagner (2003a) question this hypothesis on the grounds that the most important economic events took place before the Great Depression. For instance, the state's increasingly active role in the economy commenced in the 1920s with more market regulations and a higher tax burden. Before the Great Depression, Chile's terms of trade had begun collapsing with the invention of artificial nitrate, which replaced natural nitrate due to its lower price. By the early 1920s, nitrate prices were already low; the crisis merely deepened the drop in terms of trade. This event triggered the increasing protectionism observed in the 1930s, but does not explain the further increase in protectionism experienced by the country in the following decades.
Another important consequence (perhaps the most important) of the fall in exports was a decline in tax collection. According to evidence presented by Humud (1974), government expenditures were mainly financed by taxes on international trade (export and import taxes), revenue from state-owned firms and to a lesser extent by internal taxes. Changes in taxes on international trade occurred along with the emergence of new interest groups, which in the early days of the republic sought monopoly power in certain activities. In addition, the mercantilist viewpopular at the timeled the government to impose relatively high import tariffs. As export activities became increasingly important, landowners and mine owners applied pressure for lower tariff protection. Thus, while prior to 1885 import tariffs had been more important than export taxes, after that time export taxes became the main source of customs revenues (Humud, 1974).
Chile became particularly dependent on export taxes after the War of the Pacific, which resulted in Chile taking control of the nitrate-rich Tarapacá and Antofagasta regions. The domestic tax burden was relatively low, as the government financed its budget with export taxes (Díaz et al., 2003; Lüders and Wagner, 2003b). This may have been optimal from the point of view of the Chilean economy, given the country's monopoly power in the international nitrate market. When export tax collection started decreasing, it was rapidly replaced by a direct domestic tax and (to a lesser extent) an indirect domestic tax. As mentioned earlier, income tax was not a source of government revenue; in fact, during the 19th century Chile had no permanent income tax law and it wasn't until 1924 that one was enacted (Law 3,996). As described by Humud (1974), this law abolished specific taxes and imposed new taxes on real estate (9 percent), capital gains (4.5 percent), industrial and commercial profits (3.5 percent), mining profits (5 percent) and wages and salaries (2 percent).
This change in the structure of the fiscal budget had a significant impact on the economy, since the government replaced an "optimal tax" (although it is difficult to determine whether it was set at the optimal rate; see Lüders and Wagner, 2003c) with a distortionary tax scheme. Table 6 illustrates how revenues collected from different sources changed over time. The simple model presented in Section 3 could be modified to introduce a government that makes transfers to the private sector that are financed by transfers from abroad via the tax on nitrate exports, so the resource constraint given by (2) will be modified accordingly. Transfers from abroad abruptly stopped due to a negative terms-of-trade shock and the substitution of natural nitrate with artificial nitrate. Therefore, in order to finance transfers to the private sector, the government levied income taxes, reducing the marginal productivity of capital. In a model like this, the new tax structure will have a permanent effect on the level of per-capita and per-worker GDP. This policy, combined with the change in trade strategy, could explain why per-capita GDP did not return to the original trend as shown in Panel (b) of Figure 1. Another plausible explanation is that the transitory shock of the Great Depression had a permanent effect on the level of per-capita GDP, which is consistent with the idea of endogenous growth and unit root in the per-capita GDP series. This idea was ruled out by the evidence presented in Section 2, which rejected the unit root hypothesis against the alternative of stationarity and structural breaks (Zivot and Andrews test). Considering the permanent changes in the structure of the taxation scheme and the outward-oriented strategy, it is more likely that the economy experienced a permanent impact in the level of per-capita GDP, since the growth rate after the break is similar to the one in the previous period.
5.2. Second structural change: 1971 or 1981
The second structural break took place in the years 1969-1973 for per-capita GDP and 1979-1983 for per-worker GDP. As described later in this paper, between 1973 and 1981 drastic structural reforms were implemented. In order to understand this second break, an overview of the economic policies of the Chilean government between 1940 and 1973 is necessary. The most important changes in economic policy during 1940-1973, compared to the previous period, are related to trade and government intervention (see Meller, 1996).
After the Great Depression, the state expanded its participation in economic activity and implemented a new development strategy. Like many other countries, Chile embarked on a push for industrialization based on an import substitution strategy.5 The objectives of this strategy were to isolate the economy from external volatility and grow its industrial base. In the period from 1930 to 1973, increasing trade protections were put in place to support the country's nascent industries. Among other mechanisms, the Chilean government introduced exchange rate controls, high import tariffs on a large variety of goods, quotas, advance deposit requirements for imports, bans on certain imports, and implicit and explicit subsidies. As expected, the structure of protective measures did not follow a specific strategy, but resulted from the relative power of different interest groups lobbying for higher protection. Although the share of manufacturing industry output in total GDP increased from 11 percent in 1925 to 25 percent in 1973, the industry was highly inefficient and incapable of surviving without barriers to trade.
Figure 2 shows that Chile's outwardly oriented strategy after independence increased trade (exports plus imports as a percentage of GDP) and that after the steep decline in international trade at the time of the Great Depression, the openness of the economy essentially experienced no change until 1974. An upward trend was observed during the last period of analysis, interrupted only by a couple of years during the financial crisis of 1982. This trend was mainly explained by an aggressive outwardly oriented strategy after 1973 (we will revisit this point later).
Another area in which there were important changes during this period was the role of the state in the economy. Between 1940 and 1970, the state transitioned from promoting private investment through credit to the private sector to an entrepreneur state with large state-owned enterprises, and finally to a social planning state managing economic activity through taxes, subsidies and credit (Meller, 1996). The Allende government elected in 1970 deepened this central planning role, nationalizing the largest copper mines and taking control of numerous private firms in the industrial and banking sectors. By 1972, the contribution of state-owned enterprises to GDP reached 39%, compared to 14% in 1965. This experiment ended suddenly in 1973 with the military coup. Although the leaders of the new military government believed the system as it had evolved was not working, initially they did not have a specific program in mind. After seeking advice from a group of U.S.-trained economists, the government began a major reform with the overarching goal of moving from a state that was highly involved in economic activity to a market-oriented system.6 The main reforms applied were:7
Price liberalization, including the interest rate. Before 1973, the government set the prices of most goods and services in the economy, including interest and exchange rates (multiple exchange rates existed at that time).
The state's heavy involvement in economic activity came to an end. This occurred in several ways. On the one hand there was a change in fiscal policy, with fiscal responsibility becoming one of the cornerstones of the success of Chile's economy in subsequent years. The government abruptly reduced the fiscal deficit. On the other hand, a massive privatization process was carried out during the late 1970s and 1980s.
Trade and finance liberalization. Import tariffs were cut drastically and non-tariff barriers were eliminated. The private sector was given access to the international market and a new law was enacted to attract foreign direct investment.
Reforms in other areas: changes in the Labor Code, reduction of union power, replacement of the pay-as-you-go pension system with a private system, etc.
Once again, the two most significant reforms were related to the state's role in the economy and the trade regime (Chumacero et al., 2007).
When the country returned to democratic rule in 1990, the succeeding governments deepened the external orientation of the economy through unilateral tariff reductions and free trade agreements with numerous partners. The effect of these policies can be seen in Figure 2, which shows an upward trend in the measure of openness. The governments since 1990 have adhered to a policy of fiscal responsibility, which has become one of the central pillars of Chile's economic success by providing macroeconomic stability. As seen in Figure 1, Panel (b), all of this caused an acceleration in the growth process and allowed the economy to coincide with the long-run trend by 2008. According to the theoretical model presented here, the economy should move to a new long-run equilibrium with a higher per-capita income level. The question is whether this income level will be the one given by the long-term trend or higher.
Considering that government involvement and trade orientation played an important role in explaining the episodes defined by the structural changes found in previous sections, it seems necessary to modify the univariate model to take that into account. Chumacero and Fuentes (2006b) estimate a similar model (for 1960-2000) for a group of seven Latin American economies (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Paraguay, Peru and Uruguay), finding no evidence of structural breaks in per-capita GDP after controlling for terms of trade and government expenditures over GDP. The one exception was Paraguay, which experienced a structural change in 1981. The countries in the sample had different growth experiences, but their structure has been stable when including these variables.
More specific to Chile, Chumacero and Fuentes (2006a) develop a two-sector neoclassical model that allows for a natural-resource sector, which is an endowment, and a productive sector that uses capital and labor. In this scenario there is a government that levies taxes on the private sector. Government expenditures are composed of lump-sum transfers to the private sector plus another portion that is not valued by society. These two features allow them to include terms of trade and government expenditures in the empirical model.
A measure of trade openness and government expenditure must be added to the empirical model. Based on the literature, it seems important to include terms of trade to control for a proxy of external conditions. This variable seems to be important in explaining the structural breaks in the 1960-2000 period (Chumacero and Fuentes, 2006b). The inclusion of these variables is justified in the theoretical literature, as control for the steady state equilibrium, but the literature is silent about the structure of the lags to be employed. Here we use the idea of estimating a general model, which is progressively simplified to a more parsimonious structure (general to particular, Hendry, 1985). The equation to be estimated is:
A(L) In yt = a0 + af + B(L)gf + C (L)rt + D(L)Tf (8)
where g represents the ratio of government expenditures to GDP, r is the average import tariff and T stands for the log of terms of trade.8 A(L), B(L), C(L) and D(L) are polynomial in the lag operator. Two lags of each variable are included in the estimation of Equation (8).
The results of estimating Equation (8) are shown in Table 7. The coefficients for the trend and lags of per-capita and per-worker GDP are similar to those estimated in Section 4, yielding almost the same long-run growth rates as those estimated in Table 2. The negative coefficient for the government-expenditures-to-GDP ratio indicates that an increase in this variable reduces the level of per-capita GDP, but it does not have a statistically significant effect on per-worker GDP. Trade distortions, measured as the implicit import tariff, have a negative impact on both per-worker and per-capita GDP. The terms of trade have a positive and then a negative effect on per-capita GDP, but, as expected, they have no effect in the long run; in the case of per-worker GDP, this effect is positive and statistically different from zero. Beyond the value of the coefficients, what is important in this analysis is whether the inclusion of these variables could eliminate the structural breaks in the growth process of the Chilean economy.
The battery of Bai-Perron tests applied to the univariate model are applied again to the extended model and show no evidence of a break whatsoever. Therefore, fiscal policy and openness to international trade explain the structural breaks found in the analysis of 200 years of Chile's economic growth.
The economic history literature divides Chilean economic history into several episodes. This paper contributes to the discussion by providing a formal statistical analysis, based on a neoclassical growth model, to identify crucial moments in the country's economic history. These crucial moments have been associated with structural breaks in the neoclassical model.
A test to endogenously identify the breaks and thus avoid pretesting bias was used for the model, with per-capita GDP and per-worker GDP as dependent variables. The results of the test indicate that 1929 was the first break and 1971 and 1981 were the second breaks for per-capita GDP and per-worker GDP, respectively. The analysis of the three periods defined by these structural changes found that internal policies (specifically the role of government, fiscal policies and trade policies) and external shocks played a key role in the observed evolution of the variable of interest. Moreover, when trade openness, terms of trade and government expenditures over GDP are included in the empirical model, the evidence of structural breaks no longer appears.
Additional research should be conducted along these lines to explain the country's historical growth rate. There are at least two questions that deserve further research. First, why didn't per-capita GDP return to the level predicted by the original trend after the temporary shock of the Great Depression? The hypothesis posed here is that changes in the way government financed spending and changes in trade policies could explain this. In the former case, the government, due to an adverse external situation, switched its main source of financing from export taxes to domestic income taxes, which may have had a leveling effect in the context of the neoclassical growth model. Regarding trade policies, a more inwardly oriented strategy has a leveling effect on per-capita income, according to the theoretical model used here.
The second question is: Is this change in the growth trend simply a catching-up with the long-term trend or is it a transition to a new long-run equilibrium? By 2008, Chile's per-capita GDP reached its original trend. A more optimistic view could be that the Chilean economy is moving toward a new equilibrium. More time is needed to determine a final answer to this question.
* I would like to thank José Díaz, Rolf Lüders and Gert Wagner for helpful discussions and for providing me with data. Also, I want to thank Felipe Zurita and an anonymous referee for valuable comments. All the remaining errors are my own.
1. Using data from 1810 to 1930 does not change the result. The study used data from 1830, which is the year that many historians consider the Republic of Chile was established.
2. In a similar exercise, Jones (1995) found that a linear trend fitted for the U.S. GDP series, using the period 1880-1929, predicts quite well per-capita GDP in 1987.This is evidence that the growth trend did not change much, despite the Great Depression and the oil crisis of the 1970s.
3. Lower-case letters denote per capita; upper-case total; and a tilde above a variable denotes per unit of effective labor.
4. Recall that Φ2 and Φ3 are combinations of the capital share and the persistence of the shocks, but we cannot identify the value of each one separately.
5. Meller (1996) argues that Chile began following this inward-focused strategy in the 1930s, well before ECLAC recommended this policy in the 1950s.
6. See Aninat et al. (2004) and Chumacero et al. (2007) for an analysis of the political economy of the reforms.
7. An exhaustive analysis of the reforms can be found in the book edited by Larraín and Vergara (2000).
8. Government expenditures are proxied by government expenditures in the national accounts. Before 1940, the series was extended using real government expenditures from the fiscal accounts in Díaz et aZ. (2003). The average import tariff is an estimation of total government revenues from import over the value of imports.
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_____ . (1996), "Is there endogenous long-run growth," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 29: 235-62. [ Links ]
Lau, S. (1997), "Using stochastic growth models to understand unit roots and breaking trends," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 21:1645-67. [ Links ]
_____ . (1999), "I(0) In, integration and cointegration out: Time series properties of endogenous growth models," Journal of Econometrics 93:1-24. [ Links ]
Lüders, R. (1998), "The comparative economic performance of Chile: 1810-1995," Estudios de Economía 25: 217-49. [ Links ]
Lüders, R. and G. Wagner (2003a), "The great depression: A defining moment in Chile's development?", Cuadernos de Economía-Latin American Journal of Economics 40(121):786-791. [ Links ]
_____ . (2003b), "Early 1930is: A unique period in fiscal evolution", Cuadernos de Economía-Latin American Journal of Economics 40(121):792-795. [ Links ]
_____ . (2003b), "Nitrate export collapse and the Great Depression: Trigger or chance?", Cuadernos de Economía-Latin American Journal of Economics 40(121):796-802. [ Links ]
Meller, P. (1996), Un siglo de economía política chilena (1890-1990). Editorial Andrés Bello, Santiago de Chile. [ Links ]
Ng, S. and P. Perron (2001), "Lag length selection and the construction of unit root tests with good size and power," Econometrica 69: 1519-1554. [ Links ]
Zivot, E. and D. Andrews (1992), "Further evidence on the great crash, the oil-price shock, and the unit root hypothesis," Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 10: 251-70. [ Links ]


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Din avgränsning ger 172 träffar.
2017:18 FEM analysis of the mechanical integrity for the canister intended for storage of spent nuclear fuel with regard to copper creep ductility
Background For final storage of spent nuclear fuel it is suggested by the Swedish nuclear fuel and waste management company (SKB) to emplace the nuclear fuel into copper canisters which are surrounded by bentonite clay at approximately 500 meters' depth into granitic rock. After emplacement ofInnehållstyp: Publikationer
2017:28 SSM's external experts' review of SKB's safety assessment SR-PSU - hydrogeology, geochemistry and bentonite
Main review phaseInnehållstyp: Publikationer
2017:30 SSM's external experts' review of SKB's safety assessment SR-PSU – consequence analysis
Main review phaseInnehållstyp: Publikationer
2017:31 SSM's external experts' review of SKB's safety assessment SR-PSU – rock engineering and concrete barriers
Main review phaseInnehållstyp: Publikationer
2017:33 SSM's external experts' review of SKB's safety assessment SR-PSU – dose assessment, Kd-values, and safety analysis methodology
Main review phaseInnehållstyp: Publikationer
2018:08 Calculated radiological consequences of applying European clearance levels to scrap metal from the decommissioning of Swedish nuclear facilities
Background Many practices involving radioactive substances generate materials with potential or known radioactive contamination. Clearance of materials means a decision that such materials can be released from regulatory control and used or disposed of without restrictions from a radiationInnehållstyp: Publikationer
2018:15 Review of Geochemical Data Utilisation in SR-Site Safety Assessment
The Swedish Radiation Safety Authority (SSM) reviews and follows associated research related to the Swedish Nuclear Fuel Company's (SKB) work with establishing a repository for spent nuclear fuel and an encapsulation facility.Innehållstyp: Publikationer
2018:21 Research on Resaturation of Bentonite Buffer
Background Resaturation processes in the bentonite buffer in a KBS-3 type repository for spent nuclear fuel are complicated and are often illustrated, analysed and modelled multi-disciplinarily as coupled thermal (T), hydrological (H) and mechanical (M) processes with multi-phase flow,Innehållstyp: Publikationer
2019:12 Radiological risk assessment for the "Radon" type surface disposal facility in Chisinau, Moldova
Abstract The long-term conditions and potential radiological consequences of the legacy radioactive waste stored in the RADON-type disposal facility outside Chisinau is of concern for the central government authorities of the Republic of Moldova. A radiological risk assessment of "zeroInnehållstyp: Publikationer
2019:16 SSM's external experts' reviews of SKB's safety assessment SR-PSU
– consequence analysis and hydrogeological aspects Main review phaseInnehållstyp: Publikationer
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It's day 3 of our Sew It All TV 13 Days of Giveaways on our blog!
Remember to enter to win each day by answering a question in the Comments section. Also, we will be giving away a GRAND PRIZE, your own copy of Sew It All, Season 2! You will be automatically entered to win the grand prize every time you comment on a giveaway day question.
Yesterday we asked, "Do you sew for kids?" Congratulations to winner Elisa, who said, "I have two little divas in my life, my 2-year-old niece and my 5-year-old Hound Dog – they are the muses for several of my current and future creations!" Please email email@example.com with your mailing address to receive your copy of Episode 2 guest Liesl Gibson's book Little Things to Sew.
And as a super cool, extra surprise BONUS, I'm giving away a copy of tomorrow's prize to Laurie Tahir, who said, "I am proud to say I don't. My ten year old daughter designs and sews her own clothes." Congratulations, Laurie (on the prize and on having an awesome daughter)! Email email@example.com to get your copy of Sonya Nimri's book, Beadalicious (Watson-Guptill, 2008).
Today, we're giving away one copy of Beadalicious to three more winners and one copy of Sonya's book, Just for the Frill of it (Watson-Guptill, 2007) to one lucky winner! (The featured project from Sonya's episode, "No-Sweat Sweater" is on page 58!)
For your chance to win, answer this question in the comments section:
What has been your favorite Sew it All TV Episode?
Enter your answer below and good luck! Monday, we'll announce today's winner and the question for Day 4!
Remember to check your local PBS schedule for Sew it All TV Season 3 airings!! We have tons of great projects and new guests you won't want to miss!


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Onkyo DV-C600 DVD/CD Changer
Monday, 01 May 2000
The Onkyo DV-C600 is a six-disc CD and DVD changer. Yes, a DVD changer. This multi-featured unit is priced near the middle of its competition: $579.95. Now, if you had a similar reaction to mine, when I was told that I'd be reviewing a DVD changer, you might be thinking: why would I ever want to load six DVDs? I just want to slide a movie in and watch it beginning to end. Well, read on for the pros and cons of this machine.
With DTS discs becoming more common, it's important for your player to be DTS compatible. The DV-C600 is DTS ready. (Of course, your receiver must be able to decode DTS. ) The unit also supplies you with advanced ten-bit 27 MHz video D/A conversion (which gives you four times the accuracy of conventional eight-bit, 13. 5 MHz players); gold plated component video output for use with digital TVs; gold plated S-video output for the rest of us. The unit has the ability to pass PLUGE signals and enhanced Black-Level control for easy monitor calibration; it contains a four mode search function (title, DVD chapter, CD track, and time), six-mode repeat (titles, chapters, tracks, all tracks, memory) and a user selected A-B section on DVDs and CDs, three-mode picture magnification in 25 selected areas of the picture and dual focus optical pick-up. Whew! And the hits just keep coming: video CD playback, programmed memory playback, random playback , and CD only mode which will bypass any DVD discs that happen to be loaded with CDs. I also feel compelled to mention Onkyo's exclusive Direct Digital Path. The Direct Digital Path provides a very robust digital signal (96-kHz/24-bit audio resolution) directly to the back panel; bypassing all of the preamp and DAC circuitry. The result; a clean, noise free audiophile bitstream. Speaking of back panels, the Onkyo DV-C600 also includes digital outputs (coaxial and optical) as well as RCA analog audio pairs.
The physical characteristics are basic black with brushed aluminum front panel. The DV-C600 does offer a two-mode display dimmer, and anti-resonant reinforced steel chassis with large anti-resonant feet along with a 54-key remote control. I know, I know... why would you ever need a DVD changer, a six-disc changer at that? Patience, we're getting there.
Enough with the gear-head talk already. So how did this thing perform? Very well. If you happened to catch my review last month of the Rotel RSX-965 A/V Receiver, you'll recall that I set up the system at my niece's/godchild's christening. I hooked the Rotel up to a pair of old JBL Control 10 speakers and patched in the Onkyo DV-C600. I had pre-programmed everything from Greek folk dance music (for the locals) to Frank Sinatra (for the oldies) and even Garth Brooks (for our visitors from Texas). I received compliments from everyone and all I had to do was place my track selections in memory and press play; the DV-C600 did the rest. The sound quality, even within this big reflective un-tuned hall, was great. My old JBLs never sounded so good.
Back at home, I again teamed up the DV-C600 with the RSX-965 A/V receiver. I packed up the Control 10s and hooked up my Energy e:XL-28Ps and e:XL-C for the main and center channels respectively. For rear surround and subwoofer signals, I used the Mirage AVS Series. Everything was strung together using high-quality Camelot cables. My listening environment is relatively small with highly reflective surfaces (hardwood floors and plaster walls).
Since The Matrix (Warner Home Video) won an Oscar last month for Best Sound Effects Editing, I decided to revisit this dazzling adventure. In the opening scene there is a phone conversation going on that you can only hear. The visual is a series of numbers that are being scanned. Obviously, someone is trying to trace the call. As these numbers are being scanned, there are digital underpinned tones that were reproduced so accurately by the DV-C600 that I could distinguish that each number carried a separate tone. An amazing mix. For me, these subtle nuances make the difference. Almost any decent player can generally reproduce machine-gun fire, car accidents or bombs exploding. However, the scene in which Keanu Reeves' character sets off a metal detector is very well done, and the DV-C600 accurately replicated this very intense shoot-out scene, right down to the last shell casing hitting the terrazzo floor.
After viewing The Matrix, I felt the need for a little realism, so I placed (DTS) Saving Private Ryan (Universal) into the disc tray and let it rip. And rip it did. As the spray of the ocean and bullets splashed onto our boys storming the beach, the DV-C600 reproduced the onslaught with realism and clarity that was almost too accurate. Enough. I wanted to go back to dreamland, or least somewhere in-between: Three Kings (Warner Bros. ) was just the trick. Pure fun and then some. As Archie Gates and his boys start to plan the gold heist, I could hear a fine mix of finger cymbals and the flutter of distant helicopters. This DVD intentionally and dramatically shifted color density and contrast in both skin tones and landscape. I loved how this unit kept pace.
So why a DVD changer? Honestly, the only reason that most of us would want a DVD changer is to load all of the Lethal Weapon movies at the same time, select and load your favorite scene into memory and entertain yourself, friends and family. However, the thought of reducing the amount of equipment in my rack is always a motivator. I have a seven-year-old Sony CD changer that has seen its better days. If I was currently in the market for a DVD player, I think I would opt to pay an additional $200 or so, for the six disc carousel the DV-C600 offers (compared to equally equipped single disc DVD players) and get rid of Sony changer and the clutter.
The Downside
Although the performance of the DV-C600 was more than adequate for the price, there were a couple of areas to criticize. First, the unit will not play CD-Rs or CD-RWs; which typically means that those compilations CDs that you burned on your PC won't play back on the DV-C600. Second, the industrial design of the remote control leaves much to be desired. It's much bigger and more ergonomically challenged than other players that I've reviewed are.
Back to the question at hand: why a DVD changer? Forget about it. The real issue is whether or not you play a lot of music, if the answer is yes and if you are looking to get into DVD, take a good long look and listen to the Onkyo DV-C600. Thumbs up, Onkyo.
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OW2 is an independent, global, open-source software community. The mission of OW2 is to a) promote the development of open-source middleware, generic business applications, cloud computing platforms and b) foster a vibrant community and business ecosystem.
OW2 developments follow a flexible, component-based approach. These components range from specific software frameworks, protocols and applications through to integrated, service-oriented platforms for enterprise computing.
OW2 consortium is an independent non-profit organization open to companies, public organizations, academia and individuals. OW2 is an open organization.
OW2 is committed to growing a community of open source code developers. The organization is dedicated to the creation of new technology: original code development is one of its fundamental characteristics. OW2 champions the tenets of quality and usability of its software in the open source enterprise marketplace. It fosters a common technical architecture to be shared by its members and to facilitate the implementation of its technology by systems integrators and end-users.
The OW2 projects aim at facilitating the development, deployment and management of distributed applications with a focus on open source middleware and related development and management tools. In the open source software value chain, OW2 is positioned as an industry platform facilitating interaction between open source code Producers and open source code Consumers.
OW2 provides three types of services to its community. First, OW2 operates a technical infrastructure: delivering tools and collaborative services to project teams: the core of the platform is a forge, the application which technically supports the projects through a number of tools for the management of code contributions, versions, debugging, licenses, contributors, redistribution, etc. Second it provides community services: organizing activities and the decision-making process; OW2 is a catalyst for social and business interaction relying on five guiding principles: Openness, Fairness, Trust, Transparency and Independence. Third, it provides marketing services: helping build the community identity, brand and the projects' visibility essentially in three ways: creating collateral, organizing the community's presence at professional events and driving outbound communication.
Since its inception in January 2002, ObjectWeb a joint project between INRIA, Bull and France Telecom, has grown into a mature open source community spanning three continents. Orientware, was launched two years later by Peking University, Beijing University of Aeronautics & Astronautics, National University of Defense Technology (NUDT), CVIC Software Engineering Co., Ltd.(CVIC SE) and Institute of Software, Chinese Academy of Sciences (ISCAS).
In September 2005, ObjectWeb and Orientware signed an agreement by which they committed to share their code base and jointly develop open source middleware software. The two communities merged at the end of 2006, here you have a brief account in pictures of the merger.
In the same way as biological ecosystems, the ObjectWeb and Orientware communities has developed over time. They are now ready to support a fully fledged independent open source organization: the OW2 Consortium.
The initial thrust of the co-founders who dedicated time, expertise and financial resources to the project quickly gained the support of open source activists from around the world. A continuous cycle of contribution and expanding benefits has resulted in a rich business ecosystem of some 100 projects backed by more than 5,000 enthusiastic supporters. The OW2 business ecosystem did not happen overnight; much still remains to be done to take it to the next level.
Market trends call for open source infrastructure software. As corporations and public administrations open up applications to remote employees, partners, suppliers, customers and citizens and as distributed platforms interconnect a growing number of organizations, middleware becomes a critical execution environment. Modern computing systems are increasingly complex and middleware has become a strategic infrastructure component of modern societies.
The middleware layer stands between the operating system and the business applications. It handles communications between nodes. As distributed computing becomes ubiquitous, this layer becomes pivotal to an ever growing number of applications.
The rise of open source software is consistent with these trends, as is the concentration of open source middleware software supply. The OW2 Consortium is designed to leverage these trends.
The IT industry is without doubt one of the most dynamic and competitive sectors in our economy. It provides an excellent stage for innovative strategies. The OW2 Consortium is fortunate to be at the junction of two recent innovations in business: open source software and business ecosystems.
Here is a paper to explain the OW2 business ecosystem strategy. Drawing from our experience in the software industry, the paper starts by positioning the Business Ecosystem concept against the more popular Value Chain concept and by highlighting some of its characteristics. It then describes how the OW2 Consortium is implementing its business ecosystem strategy and the lessons learnt after nearly two years of operation.
Platform Strategies and the OW2 Consortium explains how the OW2 Consortium operates as a business ecosystem platform.
Established from the onset as an unconventional means to share code among developers, open source has evolved into a major structuring factor in the software industry. Since open source is on its way to becoming mainstream, it is expected by the market to give itself the necessary business, community and legal environment to make it a sustainable phenomenon. The OW2 Consortium was launched to leverage these trends. OW2 is both an open source community and a community-driven organization.
OW2 provides a meeting point for stakeholders of differing natures who share an interest, either technical or business, for open source middleware. The paper shows how OW2 is implementing the core tactics of multi-sided platforms.
The paper Software Commoditization and Open Source Strategies presents the strategic opportunities offered to OW2 members.
Our understanding is that there is a long-term commoditization movement which reveals itself through at least three business configurations: the first one is offshore outsourcing, the second open source and the third, emerging now, is cloud computing.
The software industry is a system with strong feedback and in constant renewal. A correct understanding of the mechanisms underpinning the growth of open source and its relationship with software commoditization provides a conceptual and strategic framework for governments, software vendors, systems integrators, customers and developers.
Open source, however, should not be reduced to an expression of software commoditization as it plays a key role in open innovation practices. Furthermore, its interaction with the wave of innovation required by cloud computing provides a new perspective on OW2 evolution.
OW2 is an independent, global, open-source software community. The mission of OW2 is to a) promote the development of open-source middleware, generic business applications, cloud computing platforms and b) foster a vibrant community and business ecosystem. OW2 developments follow a flexible, component-based approach. These components range from specific software frameworks, protocols and applications through to integrated, service-oriented platforms for enterprise computing.


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Kids look so great in stylish outfits, but who wants to pay high-end prices when clothes are outgrown so quickly? Once Upon A Child on Taylorsville Road in Louisville, KY offers the perfect solution: the latest in gently used brand name clothes, shoes, toys, books, equipment, and furniture…just right for fast-growing babies, toddlers and youth.
Save yourself the hassle of garage sales and online listings when you can swing into the nation's leading buyer and seller of name brand, gently used kids' stuff. Simply gather up your kids' gently used stuff including: clothing, shoes, playards, changing tables, strollers, highchairs and toys and bring them to Once Upon A Child on Taylorsville Road for payment on-the-spot for all items accepted.
Because we are buying gently used items from our customers all day, every day, our inventory frequently changes, so shop often!


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Posted by Rick Foss on Tuesday, December 18, 2012 3:03 PM
Life takes unexpected turns. We all know that, but it can still be unsettling when those turns involve us.
Many of you are aware of some of those unsettling turns here at Luther. Last week, following the earlier announcement of President Rick Bliese's resignation, I accepted the invitation to serve as Luther's interim president, beginning Jan. 1, 2013. I ask you to keep all of us, including Rick and Nina Bliese, in your prayers.Many of you were also aware that I had made plans to retire as of June 30, 2013. A search committee had already been put in place and was beginning to look for the next Director of Contextual Learning (CL). Because of my altered plans that process is being stepped up. We are also tending to the short-term CL stability as well as the long-range plans. Despite the challenges, I believe this will go well.There are a couple of pieces of the CL picture that I want to share.
First, as you know, Sally Messner resigned this fall to spend time at home as a new mother. Because a new director would be arriving within months it seemed inappropriate to make a permanent replacement. We have been blessed to have Nicole (Nikki) Fielder, a 2012 M.Div. graduate, as a temporary team member while she awaited call. Many of you have interacted with her by phone or email. The good news is that Nikki just received a call as associate pastor at Christ Lutheran in Marine on St. Croix, Minn. We are delighted for her! Of course, that means she will leave our team.
The next good news is that Ingrid Arneson Rasmussen, an M.Th. student currently awaiting call, has agreed to join our CL team in the meantime. We are delighted and grateful.Finally, while the search committee for the new director is speeding up its work, there is no reasonable way to have someone on Jan. 1, when I will assume my new responsibilities. For at least the month of January, Kathryn Ostlie-Olson will serve as the acting director, and Steve McKinley (familiar to most of you, and a part-time deployed CL team member for the past 8 years), will put in additional time to assist Kathryn, including a couple days a week on campus in the CL office. We expect this to go well. We also expect that, despite our best efforts, we may be a little slower to respond to correspondence than usual. I ask that you especially keep the CL team: Kathryn, Kate, Ingrid, Steve, and Julie Josund, in your prayers. One last thing: I have been deeply blessed by the opportunity to serve in this capacity for the past 4 1/2 years. I ask your prayers in the months ahead. These unexpected turns can be unsettling, but I want you to know that I'm at peace. May you be, as well.
God bless,
Rick Foss
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Trading Nate, The Logistics
: Uncategorized : Written by Mike Kurylo : 12-11-2009
With Nate Robinson in D'Antoni's doghouse it's only natural for Knick fans to expect the diminutive guard to be traded. Nate is in the last year of his deal, and if he isn't getting playing time now, then it seems unlikely that New York is going to tender him a long term deal. Additionally considering Nate's instant offense and other tangibles, he'll likely be courted by a few different teams. Hence it makes the most sense for the Knicks to move him this year, before they get nothing in return for their investment. Unfortunately trades in the NBA are rarely …continue reading


text: Multi-use and all-terrain mouse luxury - Advanced laser works on most surfaces, including glass- Power efficient to extend battery life- Convenient window switching with Aero Flip 3D- Functions customizable to your needs and habits- Extra comfortable grip for prolonged use- Compact and light – carry it anywhere Shop Modal header All On WX470 Mouse Multi-use and all-terrain mouse luxury Using advanced ASUS laser technology, precision mouse control on almost any surface becomes easy and natural, even on glass. With customizable resolution and function buttons, you can tailor the WX470 to your specific requirements and applications, switching between tabs in Windows® 7 instantly using the Aero Flip 3D button. Plus, the hand feel here is superb, specifically crafted to ensure enduring comfort whether gaming or drafting a critical presentation, made better with a nano receiver and long-lasting battery that extends time between charges. Works even on glass! Precise cursor control on almost any surface, even glass! With advanced ASUS Laser Tracking technology, you get better precision on a wider range of materials, including glass* and high gloss or lacquered surfaces, where standard optical and laser mice dare not go. For the WX470, these are no obstacle. *Glass surfaces min 4mm thick What is ASUS Laser Tracking Technology? ASUS Laser Tracking mice can go virtually anywhere, utilizing LaserStream™ technology, which enables mouse tracking on almost any surface, including glass and lacquered desks that leave optical mice and standard laser mice lacking. This technology detects the smallest details to create a micro road map of the surface, so you get better precision on more materials. Longer battery life Efficient power saving offers an extended and smarter user experience The WX470 works with up to three AAA batteries, but users can place just one or two batteries for a lighter mouse and a better hand feel based on personal preference. Plus, enhanced power saving capabilities extend battery life up to an amazing 12 months!* *White paper surface, five hours of use per day, five days per week Aero Flip 3D Button Aero Flip 3D quickly switches Windows® 7 applications One simple and easy button press switches between tabs and windows, making web browsing, video watching, and word processing much easier with instant multitasking. Tailored to your needs Move in all directions with 4-way scrolling, plus select mouse resolution with a click Resolution switching between 1100dpi and 1600dpi. Tilt wheel 4-way scrolling: easily move pages right to left! Comfortable usage The compact, ergonomically-designed shape and integrated thumb buttons deliver comfort and control wherever you go Wrapped in sweat-resistant rubber coating to keep hands feeling clean and fresh. Dual-hand ergonomic build that's perfect for all users Easy mobility and carry Built-in nano transceiver can stay plugged in when you're on the go, or stowed in the mouse for added style and convenience Makes it possible to keep working and enjoying in almost any location! ALL ON WX470 MOUSE Details 1. Back and Forward Button 2. Tilt wheel 4-way scrolling 3. DPI & Battery Indicator 4. Aero Flip 3D Button 5. Wrapped in sweat-resistant rubber coating 6. Resolution switching between 1100dpi and 1600dpi 7. Built-in nano transceiver


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Land of Enchantment, Study in Contrasts
Office Profile:
The weather had been mild all week —
close to freezing at night but warming
up quickly to the high fifties or low sixties
during the day as the sun rose in
a cloudless sky. It was warm for early
February, even by New Mexico
standards. The sun was bright and the
sky clear as audit manager Sam Weid-man
drove west on Interstate 40
toward the town of Gallup, some 140
miles from Albuquerque, for an early-morning
appointment at Atkinson
Trading Co., Inc., but he could see the
dark gray clouds piling up over the Zuhi
Mountains ahead. The storm front was
moving rapidly — last night's weather
forecast of snow at the higher altitudes
would be accurate.
He ran into the snow fifteen or twenty
miles outside Gallup, which lies nestled
in the Zuhis just south of the huge
Navajo reservation sprawling across
the northwest corner of the state and
into. Arizona. Sam had mounted all-weather
tires on the..gar the week be-
Karolyn McCain, office manager for DH&S
Albuquerque, and staff accountant Steve
McKernan (both on balcony) discuss snow
conditions with skiers at the Sandia Peak
ski area. Located in part of the Cibola National
Forest, the ski area, more than 10,000
feet above sea level, can be reached by a
2.7-mile aerial tramway — said to be the
world's longest — by an automobile road,
and, for the more rugged, by a hiking trail
from the base. Sandia Peak is hardly half an
hour from downtown Albuquerque, while
Taos, with some of the best ski slopes in
the country, is less than three hours away
by car.


text:
This page is from the comprehensive Women's Health USA 2007 Databook (PDF)
In 2005, 111 infants tested positive for HIV after being born to HIV-infected mothers (126,964 females over age 13 were living with HIV/AIDS in that year). The number of infant HIV/AIDS cases in 2005 was only one-third the number reported in 1994. A major factor in this decline is the increasing use of prophylaxis before, during, and after pregnancy to reduce perinatal transmission of the virus. In 1994, the U.S. Public Health Service began to recommend prophylaxis for all HIV-positive pregnant women; since 1995, HIV counseling and voluntary testing have been recommended for all pregnant women. In 2004, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released new and updated materials to further promote universal prenatal HIV testing. It is expected that the perinatal transmission rate will continue to decline with increased use of aggressive interventions and obstetric procedures, such as elective cesarean section.
Although there is a significant racial/ethnic disparity in HIV/AIDS among women, and consequently among infants born to HIVinfected women, the decline over the past decade occurred among each racial and ethnic group. The number of cases of HIV/AIDS among non- Hispanic Black infants declined 65.6 percent, from 215 cases in 1994 to 74 cases in 2005. The decline among Hispanic infants was less marked (40.6 percent), from 32 cases in 1994 to 19 cases in 2005. The most extreme decline in the number of cases was among non-Hispanic White infants (81.8 percent) from 77 cases in 1994 to 14 cases in 2005.
Women can become infected with HIV in a variety of ways. Among infants with HIV/AIDS in 2005, 19 were born to mothers who acquired their HIV through injection drug use, 35 were born to mothers who contracted HIV from sex with an infected partner, and 46 were born to mothers whose risk factor was not specified.
This page is from the comprehensive Women's Health USA 2007 Databook (PDF)


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Saraswati, Jain Temple, Deogarh, Uttar Pradesh
Saraswati, 9th Century AD.
"Here the ways of men divide. If you wish to strive for peace of soul and happiness, then believe; if you wish to be a disciple of truth, then inquire." ― Friedrich Nietzsche
MF Hussain had done thousands of paintings, and it is just a handful of paintings that has portrayal of nudity. The nudity thus depicted has to perceived from an artistic perspective, which is impossible for perverted fanatics. Nudity comes not for the sake of nudity. Those that cry foul have actually never seen these paintings at all.
Hussain is remembered for his genius and the numerous pieces of art that he churned out and not for the handful of paintings that happen to have some nudity.
The Saraswathi depicted here....... The numerous interpretations this piece with a few strokes can produce is a testimony of the genius of a great artist
It is a matter of great regret that hardcore hindu lumpens and fanatics threatened the great genius M F Hussain and he had live the life of exile. My heart bleeds for such a great artist. I salute his services and spirit and condemn the hindu fundamentalism which cannot appreciate the art and understand the meaning of culture. Many times, I feel ashamed of myself when somebody call me hindu. I find no pride being called a hindu.Delete
you should also be exiled along with him....
I love you for writing this. whoever you are. I like it that you have chosen to ask questions.
take care. :-)
PS.. would love to add you on fb or so.
While respecting the right to freedom of expression, the intention should also be considered. There is nothing wrong in potraying pictures naked, but i don't know if you know the words of Mr. Hussain... He said that he draws anyone naked in order to embarass him/her. He drew hitler naked, and said that he wanted to embarass hitler. In a picture, he drew a brahmin naked, and in the same picture he drew a Mughal ruler with full dress, and he said he potrayed naked pictures in order to embarass. He drew saraswati naked, it is ok to potray saraswati naked, many places it can be seen, but the intention with which he drew is not right. I will give an example now. Suppose one guy, who openly says that he draws nudity to embarass, draws a picture of your mother, father and your sister naked and published in an art show and explicitly states that he potrays nudity to insult, would you be able to accept it whole heartedly...? If you are able to enjoy a coffee and a nice meal with him without any hard feelings just after the exhibition, then i agree your views... otherwise i dont find any point in supporting it....ReplyDelete
I remember reading Telugu poems from my 10th textbook they were full of Sexual innuendos , there were even some Outright Graphic and Erotic descriptions of Foreplay between Gods and even Boobs of some Apsara.
Compared to that Hussains work is pretty lite.
"To say that every Rama we depict should look like Arun Govil would be nonsensical."
There is plenty here in the above concise summary. Most modern Hindus would agree with the above, yet loose sleep over this issue. Hope your visual examples help them look at the art, than those letters 'H u s s a i n'
"To say that every Rama we depict should look like Arun Govil would be nonsensical."
There is plenty here in the above concise summary. Most modern Hindus would agree with the above, yet loose sleep over this issue. Hope your visual examples help them look at the art, than those letters 'H u s s a i n'
If Hindu can paint naked then Hindu could also be tolerated then Muslim so if they are angry there must be some logic behind it and the person who discovered amonia gas and helped killing Jews to help Hitler was also genius he got Nobel prize for that amonia changed farming forever does not mean he was not axxholeDelete
Why are the Facial features of Our Gods in Photos like these are always North Indian?ReplyDelete
Y we both look same brother but u need to be I dnt know how you difference between North India or south I can't even my nose big skin dark although my family north Indian good thing is Indian always divided so we let invaders ruled us despite having great king gautamiputra satkaraniDelete
<<Suppose one guy, who openly says that he draws nudity to embarass, draws a picture of your mother, father and your sister naked and published in an art show and explicitly states that he potrays nudity to insult, would you be able to accept it .
<< I got your problem, You think Parwathi is Just "Your" Mother Godess so only Hindus have the right to represent her the way they see her fit , i totally get u, Bigot.
My dear Orwell...
You are just on the other side of fundamentalists where you link someone who just speak freely towards the fundamentalist principles.... Hope you have some neutral views left within you... No need to bring religion in forefront. For me it is the same insult if Mr. Hussain drew Jesus or Gandhi or Obama or Sonia or even 'you' nudely. Just see the intention which lies in the mind. If drawing nude is purposefully insulting someone (he says that he draws nude to insult openly) then how to support any such act ? Of course artistic talent is to be admired. I agree.
In any case that doesn't mean shouting anti Hussain slogans everywhere. That too is rubbish.
While respecting the right to freedom of expression, the intention should also be considered.
Intentions are subjective and should not be legalized.
… but i don't know if you know the words of Mr. Hussain... He said that he draws anyone naked in order to embarass him/her. He drew hitler naked, and said that he wanted to embarass hitler.
I guess you must be new to this blog. We have debated this before.
So far, no one has provided the source for this allegation – that M F Husain painted Hitler in nude because he wanted to embarrass Hitler or because he didn't like Hitler. Until a source is provided, I would like to disbelieve it.
just a hypothetical example.
instead of hindu gods and godeses, if he draws nude pics of telangana thalli, kcr his children or vijayashanthi, will u react in the same "whats the big deal in it" way???
You are somewhat desperate and continue the beaten track of criticizing "some Hindus".ReplyDelete
In your first post after MF's death you gave plenty of references to ur past posts. Yet you keep on harping same point.
You chose not to answer some crucial questions by others in previous posts.
just a hypothetical example.
instead of hindu gods and godeses, if he draws nude pics of telangana thalli, kcr his children or vijayashanthi, will u react in the same "whats the big deal in it" way???
you sound very novice about 'views' of neo-liberals.
we are in the age of legal gay marriages. Most liberal thinkers are in favor of it as it 'natural'.
(Sujai, spare me I do not know your stand on this:-))
I would not be surprised if these people support 'incest'. They have great example from history 'Alexander the great'. They can easily bring similar examples from across the globe.
Well! You may questions what is the link between MF and incest. My reasoning is once you are liberal there is nothing like "how much liberal" and we can support any combination of human relations based on "what is worng?" or "it is natural".
1 thing I'd like 2 say....was Hussain an atheist...????I don't think so...den how did he have the right 2 hurt the feelings of another religion,when he believed in a certain 1...????& did he painted ne nude pictures of mohammed...???I guess not...I'm an atheist...but still....u can't hurt others feelings,being a part of a different community...its like "I have artistic independance....so I'll do nething,if any ques is risen...simple,I'll ask dem 2 view it artistically..."...???!!!Isn't it an unjust...????ReplyDelete
It is almost 3 weeks since Gluam Md. Vastanvi was removed from VC of Darul Uloom Deoband.
His sin? Praising Narender Modi.
Interestingly the entire neo-liberal, secular does not see it as obstructing of freedom of expression.
Different rules for different religions.
if mr. hussain is so interested, or enthusiastic to draw nudes,why doesn't he draw a prophet mohamed or some muslim lady nude, AND let me see him live in SECULAR INDIA,or any where in the world,
india has become too cheap for every tom ,DICK,and harry, thanks to the power hungry politicians, craving for vote banks,protecting some in the name of minority and neglecting others,deliberately,
dont think im a pervert , im an artist, but i dont draw some thing that hurts others religious feelings.
Its not the mistake of Mofo its the weakness of Hindus who are weak in general, a bunch of Christians make the Govt to stop a movie which they oppose, Muslims are able to force the Govt to ban Taslima Nasrin's book...despite being majority Hindus fail to make Govt ban the mofo. because of this weakness these secular people dare to put their views on hindus but never on muslims, no blogger show their interest defending Taslima as much as they defend MOFO.
I feel threatened to being a Hindu in this country.
I totally agree with you. India is ruled by those who have no respect for Hindus and support activities of Hindu haters. Print media is also sold out. Nobody has courage to question Hassain's motives. Why did not Hussain depict Muslim women in his nude paintaings?
Do ot be discouraged. Keep protesting. Basically it is Hindu's fault. They are not not united. They are not political enough. They do not demand attention.
Nudity is holy. Every cannot go nude.
Obscenity is in the eye of beholder. Did we ever ask Hussain if he drew Saraswati nude because he wanted to embarass her or because he felt nothing wrong with such depiction? Please look at the motherhood like a child who looks for Jnana Dugdhaara or Flow of Milk of Knowledge from the mother. Hinduism was or is never against nudity. The thoughts are pure. do not judge it with a different mindset.
The unwarranted outrage in parliament over the cartoon of Dr.Ambedkar riding a snail(constitution) appearing in a NCERT text book , and insult heaped on the two well-known scholars (mid-May 2012) make sense of M.F.Hussain's cartoon of Saraswati-
The outrage on Saraswati has caused her to hide under her Lotus-seat inside the pond!
so let's make nude paintings of jesuus and mohamad or indian painters' independence is only bound to degenerate hindu deitiesReplyDelete
people who think and draw nude goddess...they don't have respect for their mother, sister and they will think every women are naked, in fact their mother, sister, daughter and they also...so thinking and drawing nude women is just a dirty play of hormones...if there are any person who think that their mother is goddess for them, then please stop those mad people who thinking and drawing goddess nude. Stop yourself Mr. MF Husain...ReplyDelete
give me MF Hussain's mothers's photo I will draw it nude....dirty old man.....must have gone to hell and suffering for all the sins........ReplyDelete
I think it is terribly sad that the culture which gave the world the Khajuraho temples and the Kama Sutra has fallen so far.ReplyDelete
Pagal huwa he hussain......ReplyDelete
Check this out:
Granted Mr Hussain is a celebrated artists. Not all his paintings are about depiction of nude female form. But among those that are, the painter's subject is often Hindu goddesses or other female icons. In some he paints goddesses in nude and explicit sexual positions. If the painter was so obsessed, shouldn't he have chosen some Muslim icons. In that case, would he have lived long enough to enjoy the fame and wealth from his artistic endeavors?ReplyDelete
we should not indicate !! nude mean only sexual ...but what we place any thoughts on social ...we should fully conscious about WHAT IS RITE ?ReplyDelete
I am reading all these comments and I can see no one is getting the point 👉 M. F. Hussain was very desperate to become famous and only a controversial issue can make a person top of the controversy. I am an artist 🎨 studied Indian art for 5 years. If you are an artist and you have good public relations with owner and editors in the top media in India, I suggest you to paint 🎨 M. F. Hussain nude doing masterbating and get published in TOI or get interviewed on TimesNow by Arnab Gwaswami and you will rule 📏 the next generation of Indian Art.ReplyDelete
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Incredible color!!!
Congrats for the prize, very nice!
Gorgeous Wow this is spectacular! Congrats & 5/5
i definitely like these tones, so much detail too. late congrats!
wow amazing
Love the palette, magical work!
congratulation on your winning :) you've done an amazing art ..
Wonderful draw! Congratulations on your win!
Wonderful drawing!!!! Congratulations on your win!!!! 5/5 collection!
Hey, this is really different and awesome.... You draw really good and also congratulations for your winning! 5/5


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DuPont Presbyterian Podcasts
Using this podcast player, you can listen to a continuous stream of sermons and other audio programs we post. To open the player in its window, so you can continue listening while you browse the web, highlight the message you are interested in and click the "play" button below the player. Sometimes the sermons are out of order, so it is best to go by the date of the sermon.
To listen to the current series on Habakkuk and a couple of sermons with Elders' input on why we are considering leaving the PCUSA, click HERE.
To listen to Pastor Dan's series on the book of Ephesians plus Advent and Christmas, click HERE.
To listen to Pastor Dan's sermon series on Sauntering with Jesus in Luke plus Psalms of Ascent (with a few holiday messages interspersed) click HERE.
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January 26, 2020
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by Len Lear
Marianne Gere and Kim Strengari must know something about discovering and developing great chefs. The local restaurant entrepreneurs have opened five restaurants in the past 13 years — Bella Luna in Bryn Mawr in 2000 and the other four in Conshohocken: Stella Blu in 2001, Gypsy Saloon in 2004, Bella Luna Pizza Kitchen in 2008 and Southern Cross Kitchen last November.
Christina Wilson is one chef who got her first chef's job at Stella Blu seven years ago and was there for three years. This is the same young lady who won the 10th season of the Fox-TV show "Hell's Kitchen" over 18 other chefs and a $250,000 a year executive chef job at Gordon Ramsay Steak at Paris Las Vegas, where she feeds a few hundred tourists a night. Another of Kim and Marianne's former chefs, Ralph Pellegrino, also won a competition to partner with New York celebrity chef Rocco DeSpirito on a nationally syndicated TV cooking show.
Southern Cross Kitchen is so named because the food is a cross between Southern classics like jambalaya, fried buttermilk chicken, grits and cornbread, blackened catfish, etc., and modern comfort food. The location is 6 East First St., formerly home to 8 East for two years and just one or two minutes from the Schuylkill Expressway's Conshohocken exit.
The Southern Cross Kitchen is a two-story operation with a couple dozen beers on tap. There is a terrific vintage feel with the blackboard specials, corny Southern-isms on the walls (e.g., "Here in the South we don't hide crazy. We parade it on the front porch and give it a cocktail."), shutters, antique chests, brass chandeliers, wooden tables, wrought iron and hanging herbs. The first floor seats 35 with another 15 at the bar, and the upstairs seats 70 with 20 more at the bar. During our visit last Thursday, both dining rooms and bars were mostly full, so the weekends must really be exploding.
Menu appetizers range from $8 to $15, salads from $7 to $12 and entrees from $14 to $28. These prices are not cheap, but there are lots of other crowded restaurants in the area, like Iron Hill Brewery/Restaurant, that are just as pricey. The economy has not altered that reality.
You cannot go wrong with some of the Southern classics like the fried green tomatoes and goat cheese with a zesty roasted red pepper coulis ($10) or fried pickles with green goddess dressing ($7), and I kneel at the altar of whoever came up with the idea of Philly cheesesteak egg rolls with fried onions and spicy ketchup ($8). In each case the sauces stand out like ghosts at a wedding, although the accompanying buttermilk biscuits ($2) were dry and tasteless. Jambalaya with chicken, andouille sausage, rice and vegetables nestled in a sauce with just a little bit of a kick ($20) gave a hearty nod to rustic comfort.
Yummy Toll House cookie pie, served warm, with vanilla ice cream, and chocolate chip banana pie with ice cream provide a closing chorus to a tune your taste buds will enjoy singing. Desserts are made on the premises. The economy has made many of us tighten our belts, but after eating here, we had to loosen them.
Last Sunday Craig LaBan published a one-bell review of Southern Cross Kitchen, although he praised several of their dishes as well as the décor and beer selection. I would remind anyone who read it that personal taste is a very subjective thing and that a newspaper columnist who has never been a professional chef or restauranteur is simply one more diner whose opinion is not necessarily any more valid than anyone else's.
After all, one only has to visit yelp.com and check out any restaurant, no matter whether it is a Marc Vetri or Jose Garces palace of gastronomy or a hamburger joint. I guarantee you that every single one will be praised to the North Star by some customers and trashed by others. It goes with the territory.
So the opinions and recommendations from your friends are just as likely to coalesce with or dissent from yours as are the opinions and recommendations from some newspaper employee who may have previously covered high school sports or crime trials.
A while back, for example, Craig LaBan did a hatchet job on Thai Kuu in Chestnut Hill, conferring upon them the dreaded "No-bell Prize." He practically said that if you eat their meat, your future generations will be genetic mutations. Several local foodies I have talked to since then, however, have told me that they have enjoyed dinners at this charming BYOB. Four of us had dinner there last month and had nothing but praise for the food, décor, prices and service. This is not chemistry, where there is only one correct answer to an experiment. All of us have different experiences at the same restaurant, and there is no one right or wrong answer. Make up your own mind.
Interestingly, the executive chef at Southern Cross Kitchen, Santana Sihamountry (whose brother, Niphone, is now head chef at Stella Blu), is originally from Laos in Southeast Asia, which is a long way from North and South Carolina, but chefs often become experts at the cooking of an ethnic group other than their own.
Vince Viola, for example, for 23 years has been preparing great Chinese food at Yangming in Bryn Mawr, which last year was named "The Best Chinese Restaurant in the U.S." by a national Chinese culinary magazine, and Vince Viola is an Italian-American who was born and raised in Manayunk, which is more than a few subway stops from Beijing.
There is no doubt that Kim and Marianne have taken a walk on the high wire with Southern Cross Kitchen. On the other hand, a ship in the harbor is safe, but ships were not made to stay in a harbor.
There is great bluesy music here (not too loud, thank you) on tape and live music upstairs on Wednesday and Thursday nights and at Sunday brunch. Southern Cross serves lunch and dinner every day of the week (except for brunch on Sunday). Reservations are not accepted. Free valet parking is available Wednesday through Saturday nights.
For more information, visit www.conshygirls.com or call 484-344-5668.


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Sunday January 26, 2020; 03:42 pm EST
See and feel what inspired Francis Scott Key
Every American knows the story of Francis Scott Key watching the bombardment of Fort McHenry in Baltimore, then penning the Star Spangled Banner as dawn broke to reveal the Stars and Stripes still flying proudly over the fort. He watched the battle from a prime harbor seat: a British war ship on which he was detained.
You can be in the same spot Key was 200 years ago and gaze at the flag flying over the fort just as he did. Of course, it's not the exact same flag, and the Baltimore skyline has changed in the last two centuries.
You'll need a boat for this experience, but that's easy. Plenty of tour boats out of Baltimore's inner harbor will take you to the exact location and recount the story. There's no problem finding the spot. It's by the Key Bridge, and marked with a special red, white and blue buoy.
My first visit was on a tour boat, with the family. But toddlers were too young to understand the significance of what they were seeing, so I vowed to come back when they could appreciate the experience. We took our boat to Baltimore for the Fourth of July, finding the colorful buoy on our own. This time the kids knew enough to recount the story to my wife and me. Of all the historic sites we visited while they were growing up, this remains one of the more memorable.
I made my third visit last week, on the press boat as the Coast Guard cutter James Rankin set the buoy. Every year since 1972 the Coast Guard has set the buoy in the spring and retrieved it in the fall. The Rankin is equipped and trained to set buoys, so the crew made quick work of getting the marker placed. When the buoy was afloat, the James Rankin backed off a dozen yards; the National Anthem was played over the ship's intercom system while everyone stood at attention. The Coast Guard crew on the Rankin and on our press boat saluted. You were there, and you felt it.
You can see the very same flag that Key witnessed and the manuscript that he penned at the Smithsonian National Museum of American History in Washington, D.C. From Flag Day June 14 to July 6, the Maryland Historical Society is lending the museum Francis Scott Key's original manuscript of the Star-Spangled Banner lyrics, where it will be united for the first time with the flag Key saw at "dawn's early light."


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The Center for Emerging Technology and Entrepreneurial Studies (CETES) located at Cameron University presents Tech Night on Tuesday, April 15, from 6-9 p.m. This month's presentation features Kevin Harris, co-founder of Radiant Fabrication and an independent game developer, who will present "Demystifying 3D Printing." The session will take place in the Sarkeys Conference Room (Room 207) at CETES. Tech Night is open to the public at no charge.
"Additive printing - or 3D printing as it is more commonly known – is used for making prototypes as well as actual manufacturing," says Arun Tilak, Director, CETES. "The applications for this rapidly changing technology are vast and include architecture, construction, industrial design, automotive, aerospace, military, engineering, dental and medical industries, as well as many other fields."
Radiant Fabrication, headquartered in Madison, Wis., offers complete 3D scanning, modeling, and printing using a powerful yet user-friendly 3D modeling program, Radiant Li, and a combined 3D printer and scanner, the Radiant Lionhead. The latter utilizes patent-pending mechanisms to push the limits of 3D printing while keeping manufacturing costs low.
While experts believe the market for 3D printing will triple by 2018, to date the technology has been limited to engineers, designers and hobbyists because the methodology requires strong technical knowledge and skills in addition to complex software. Radiant Fabrication's technology makes 3D fabrication accessible to mainstream users by providing a complete and seamless 3D printing, scanning and modeling workflow.
April 7, 2014