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Author Archive
They Meant Us No Harm, But Only Gave Us the Lotus
| Gabriel |
After hearing Sam Quinones on EconTalk, I finally stopped procrastinating and read Dreamland. It only took a few days over which every other activity was a distraction from finishing the book. Dreamland provides a unified story of the opiate epidemic starting in the late 1990s with both the overall social trend and close-ups on the lives of dealers, addicts, doctors, cops, epidemiologists, and mourners. I've watched every episode of Justified and read Case and Deaton PNAS 2015, so I was not surprised by the broad argument of the book that a shift in medicine towards prescribing opiates created ubiquitous chemical dependence that was eventually met by black tar heroin, all of which disproportionately affected rust belt white people. What made the book amazing to me even knowing the broad contours of the social facts it describes was how every detail of the book illustrated and illuminated another aspect of sociology. As I remarked on Twitter, my discipline could very well treat Dreamland the same way political scientists treat History of the Peloponnesian War.
In no particular order, here are a few of the themes I noticed.
The dealers who come up from Xalisco, Nayarit to live for a few months in spartan conditions working long hours driving around with balloons of dope in their mouths are motivated by relative deprivation. As more and more dealer-migrants return to Xalisco flush with cash this creates a new standard of living in the village and transforms being an impoverished sugar cane farmer from just how life goes to a status that can be rejected. But relative deprivation is too weak to explain Xalisco life, which is better characterized as competitive feasting straight out of Mauss's The Gift. Xalisco-style potlatch can occur whenever a migrant returns with suitcases full of Levis 501s to disburse to a receiving line of supplicants, but is especially centered on the corn festival, where migrants would compete by sponsoring banda performances (104). Interestingly, while dealers often planned to save enough wages to capitalize a small business, they tended to dissipate their wealth in gifts to family and "the rest on beer, strip clubs, and cocaine, and walked the streets of Xalisco for a week or two the object of other men's envy" (261). This envy is something Quinones emphasizes repeatedly and the way it is formed by public feasting and is sublimated into a need to reciprocate so as to restore honor, which in turn creates the labor supply for black tar heroin retailing as men seek another bundle of cash through which to engage in such honorable public profligacy.
Social capital also plays a strong role in explaining how Xalisco drug crews operated, which was distinct from most drug dealers. Notwithstanding a handful of murders in the book, Xalisco dealers generally eschewed violence and never carry guns. Competing heroin crews had an approach of friendly competition rather than violent turf wars over territory. Quinones attributes this partly to their "pizza delivery" business model as compared to traditional corner slinging, but mostly to the thick interconnected ties based in a small rancho back home where everybody knows everybody. Another distinctive aspect of the Xalisco boys business model is that dealers earn a salary, whereas typically drugs are sold on commission. This would normally present a principle-agent problem, but it was not an issue for Xalisco dealers. Crew bosses did engage in monitoring through calling junkies to confirm that their dealers were prompt, polite, and the heroin was of high quality, but these monitoring costs were feasible because of the high level of trust. Crew bosses basically trusted their dealers because they weren't junkies (Xalisco boys consider heroin disgusting) and they had thick communal ties from the rancho. This is the positive aspect of social capital, but there is also a negative sense of social capital in that men were pushed into drug dealing and returning to drug dealing by the insatiable demands to support relatives. That's all supply side, but social capital also characterizes Quinones's understanding of the demand side, though in a sense closer to Putnam than Portes, in blaming the rise of opiates on the collapse of community. In this aspect of the story Quinones is a staunch communitarian moralist, which didn't bother me as I'm a communitarian moralist too, but YMMV and blaming opiates on the collapse of community was the only argument in the book that was more tell than show.
On the prescription opiates side, Quinones tells the story of how medicine lost its traditional reluctance to prescribe opiates in the pain revolution and particularly the key role played by Porter and Jick NEJM (1980). The article itself is a one paragraph letter noting that in-patients treated with opiates rarely became addicted. The role of this brief letter in the pain revolution is instructive for scientific epistemology. In terms of scientific epistemology it provides a valuable cautionary tale for the problem of generalizing beyond the scope of the data. The finding showed that in-patients receiving very conservative doses of opiates rarely became addicted but this was interpreted as it being completely safe to provide out-patients with liberal supplies of opiates. In Quinones's telling, the article is something of a Sleeping Beauty citation, taking off after it was cited in a 1986 Pain article by Foley and Portenoy. However a Google Scholar search shows that the article began getting cited almost immediately (the earliest citation is from 1982 in a nursing journal). Nonetheless the story of how a brief publication summarizing a single database query was interpreted well beyond its original scope conditions to justify risky changes to medical practice can provide grist for the mill of historians and sociologists of science. A key part of the story as to why people cited this tiny publication is because they wanted to believe it as it created a permission structure for prescribing effective but dangerous drugs and pharmaceutical detailing exploited this by promoting Porter and Jick, or even just the black-boxed factoid of "1% addiction rate" to physicians.
A few other themes I noticed:
- pharmaceutical detailing in opiates, as in all drugs, follows my model of obfuscated transactionalism and Quinones has a lot of material on the history of detailing
- the submerged state gives Medicaid rather than cash transfers and a lot of diverted opiates came from pill mills paid for through Medicaid fraud
- Xalisco boys engage in statistical discrimination by only selling to white customers who they see as less likely to rob them than black customers
- chain migration characterizes some aspects of Xalisco boy migration, but they also are entrepreneurial in relying on junkies as scouts to explore new markets, including ones with no history of Nayarit migrants
- doctors prescribed opiates in part to get patients out of their offices quickly and prescribed 30 day packs of pills rather than 3 day packs of pills to avoid return visits. Proper pain management is extremely labor intensive, but hard to get insurance reimbursement. This follows logically from Baumol's disease in that as high-skilled medical labor grows more expensive, insurance companies will substitute capital (drugs).
- reactivity is everywhere. Pain is part of doctor and hospital ratings, but iatrogenic addiction is not so doctors prescribe dope. Sentencing is based on large quantities of dope and carrying a gun so Xalisco boys carry only small quantities of dope and go unarmed.
And oh yeah, there's also some stuff in the book about how this is an enormous social and public health epidemic, killing tens of thousands of Americans a year and stealing the souls of many more — debasing them into the kind of people who steal their children's Christmas presents to trade for pills. But I'd rather focus on how it provides material for developing theory because I prefer to be fascinated than livid and that attitude is how I made it all the way through the book only breaking down in tears once.
Obfuscated Transactionalism at Cato Unbound
| Gabriel |
From my lead essay at Cato Unbound:
And so we modern people take for granted that we both produce and consume through markets. The idea that we might acquire groceries because the butcher, the baker, and the brewer owe us favors rather than because we hand them cash or a Visa card seems primitive. Nonetheless, there are circumstances where we modern westerners consider prestations more appropriate than purchases. This preference extends well beyond obvious matters of intimacy like sex and Christmas presents and even reaches into business interactions.
Responses from Mike Munger, Alan Fiske, and Alex Tabarrok to follow.
Ruby Slippers
| Gabriel |
Rod Dreher at The American Conservative has a post on people invoking the concept of "social construction" with his lead example being a speech and debate team that always changes the subject to a critical race theory rant about the conventions of debate itself, even if the pre-specified debate topic is about national service or green energy or whatever. The judge then awards the match to this non sequitur, invoking "social constructionism" to explain himself.
I can get angry about this on a whole other level than Dreher does, precisely because I think social construction is a valuable concept. And I really do take the concept seriously. My PhD training is as a neo-institutionalist (ie, how organizational practices are socially constructed), I have an ASR on market information regimes (ie, how socially constructed market data shapes market behavior), and my current project is on relational work (ie, how exchange is socially constructed as market or social). I also advise grad students on these sorts of topics. So it's not like I'm some angry epistemological realist who goes around giving swirlies to phenomenologists.
Social construction is a really useful concept, but unfortunately, this really important concept has the misfortune of being popular with idiots who don't really understand it. When this sort of person says "x is socially constructed" the implication is "therefore we can ignore x." When I lecture on social constructionism I ridicule this sort of thing as "ruby slippers" social constructionism, as if your sociology professor tells you "why Dorothy, you've had the power to solve inequality all along, just click your heels three times and say 'race is a social construct,' 'race is a social construct,' 'race is a social construct.'" If you really grok social constructionism, the appropriate reaction to somebody invoking the concept in almost any practical context is to shrug and say "your point being?" If you actually read Berger and Luckmann rather than just get the gist of it from some guy with whom you are smoking weed, you'll see that the key aspects of social constructionism are intersubjectivity and institutions. That is social construction is important because social interaction is premised on shared conventions and becomes deeply codified to the extent that for most purposes it might as well be objective.
Suppose you had two contractors bidding on remodeling your kitchen. One of them says that it will be done in X days, involving Y materials, and cost you $Z. The other gives you a fascinating (but at times dubious) lecture about whether time exists in the abstract or only relative to perception, the ugly history of exploitation in the formica industry, and the chartalist theory of money. You then go back to the first contractor, who is bewildered and has no rebuttal to the second contractor's very, um, creative arguments. You would have to be an idiot to award the bid to the second contractor, even if you think they are right about everything they said. As it happens, I actually believe that time, kitchen materials, and money are all socially constructed. It is also true that kitchen remodeling is also a social construct and one of the conventions of that particular social construct is that you talk about things like time, material, and price rather than offer a critical perspective on the same.
| Gabriel |
This morning Governor Chris Christie endorsed Donald Trump for president. There was widespread speculation that this reflected Christie hoping for an appointment as Attorney General in the event of a Trump victory. This was met with widespread disgust from mainstream conservative intellectuals, all of whom despise Trump (and immediately prior to the endorsement were delighting in Rubio having learned to fight Trump at his own insult comic game). Over on Twitter, Josh Barro observed that it is precisely Trump's outsider nature that makes endorsing him attractive for an ambitious Republican politician.
This struck me as very astute and reminded me of Gould's 2002 AJS on The Origins of Status Hierarchies. This model starts with a cumulative advantage model for status. The trick with cumulative advantage models though is to avoid their natural tendency towards absolute inequality and so the models always have some kind of braking mechanism so the histogram ends up as a power-law, not a step function. For instance, Rosen 1981 uses heterogeneity of taste and diminishing marginal returns to avoid what would otherwise be the implication of his model of exactly one celebrity achieving universal acclaim. Anyway, the point is that cumulative advantage models need a brake, and Gould's brake is reciprocity. Gould observes that attention and resources are finite and so when someone has many followers, they lose the ability to reciprocate with them. To the extent that followers are attentive not only to the status of a patron, but the attention and resources the patron reciprocates, then their high numbers of followers will swamp the ability of high status patrons to reciprocate and so inhibit their ability to attract new followers. For instance, a grad student might rationally prefer to work with an associate professor who has only a few advisees and so can spend several hours a week with each of them than with a Nobel Laureate who has so many advisees he doesn't recognize some of them in the hallway.
In this sense, Rubio as the clear favorite of the party establishment has already recruited great masses of political talent. Should Rubio win in November, he will have an embarrassment of riches in terms of followers with whom to fill cabinet positions and other high-ranking political roles. That is to say, Rubio's ability to reciprocate the support of his followers is swamped by the great number of followers he has acquired. (I'm talking about followers among the sorts of people likely to be appointed to administration positions, I'll get to voters later). This then makes some potential followers decide to affiliate with a patron who is not too busy for them, and hence Chris Christie is hoping to spend the next eight years building RICO cases against people who use the term "short-fingered vulgarian."
But, there's a problem with this, which is that status itself provides resources, especially in a system where power is not continuous but winner-take-all. (The discontinuity is really important, as Schilke and I argued recently). In this sense, it shouldn't matter that a candidate with few endorsements has the fewest supporters competing for patronage because that candidate would lose and so not have patronage to allocate. That would be true if the political science model nicknamed "the party decides"(which we can generalize as the endogeneity of status competition) were true. But if that model were true, we would be seeing Rubio (who recruited the most intellectuals) or Jeb! (who raised the most money) as the clear front-runner and that is anything but the case since the GOP primary this cycle has been consistently dominated by outsiders (Trump, briefly Carson, and even Cruz, who is a senator but a notably un-collegial one).
This then suggests that we have to recognize that power, including the ability to allocate resources to followers, is not necessarily a function of how many followers one has. In ordinary times it might be, especially in the Republican party which normally follows the party decides model. However in this year it is clear that popularity in opinion polls and primaries/caucuses has no (positive) correlation with establishment support. This may be because Trump, like Lenin, is a figure of such immense charisma that he can defy the models. Or it may be that the base is revolting over a substantive issue like immigration. Or maybe the support of neo-Nazis with a bizarre interest in anime and the Frankfurt school is the secret sauce. Whatever the exact nature of why the party decides model is breaking, the fact is that it is. The Republican primary reminds me of Bourdieu's model of a field of mass cultural production and a restricted field of production. Rubio is clearly dominating in the restricted field of elite conservative opinion, but that does him very little good considering how effective Trump is at the mass field. If we view the competition for endorsements not as an isolated system, but one that is loosely coupled to an adjacent system of competition for voters, then the status competition for endorsements is no longer entirely endogenous but there is a source of exogenous power shaping it. (In the Gould model this would be subsumed as part of Q_j). Hence Trump's great popularity with voters despite his great unpopularity with party elites makes him more attractive than he would otherwise be to party elites who will break ranks and affiliate with the demagogue.
In Trump's case, his fame, wit, and shamelessness have gained him the support of voters and this has disrupted the otherwise endogenous system of endorsements, however the model could generalize to any source of power outside of the endogenous process of consensus building within party elites. A very similar model would apply to those political actors who welcome a foreign invader as supporters in domestic disputes they would otherwise lose. Americans take for granted that the opposition party will be a loyal opposition and so we abide by the maxim that "politics ends at the water's edge," which is why periods like the Second Red Scare (or from the other perspective, the Popular Front that preceded it) seem so anomalous. However for centuries, machinations to set yourself up as a client-state after relying on imperial powers to depose the current batch of elites is most of what politics was. In such a scenario, a political actor who lacks much power within the internal dynamics of oligarchy could still acquire followers if they seemed to be favored by the forces massing across the border. So we might expect a lot of ambitious mitteleuropean politicians to affiliate with heretofore minor fascist parties c 1938, or with heretofore minor communist parties c 1943.
Who Said It? Gift Exchange Lit vs Article on LASD
| Gabriel |
For each quote, guess the source: a classic of gift exchange or a Los Angeles Times article about deposed Sheriff and soon to be plea bargainee, Lee Baca. Highlight the text to see the answers and score your quiz!
"Until he has given back, the receiver is 'obliged,' expected to show his gratitude towards his benefactor or at least to show regard for him, go easy on him, pull his punches…" (Bourdieu Logic of Practice)
"The etiquette of the feast, of the gift that one receives with dignity, but is not solicited, is extremely marked among these tribes." (Mauss The Gift)
"I don't solicit any gifts. I've never asked for a gift.… People just do it for me." (Los Angeles Times)
"When you're taking gifts from strangers, there's only one reason. They only give gifts because they want something." (Los Angeles Times)
"These, however, are but the outward signs of kindness, not the kindnesses themselves." (Seneca Benefits)
"What they're expressing is appreciation for the respectful way we do business." (Los Angeles Times)
"No one is really unaware of the logic of exchange … but no one fails to comply with the rules of the game, which is to act as if one did not know the rule." (Bourdieu Pascalian Meditations)
"Nobody is free to refuse the present that is offered." (Mauss The Gift)
"My life would be much easier if people did not give me gifts." (Los Angeles Times)
Scraping Twitter with Python
| Gabriel |
As long-time readers will remember, I have been collecting Twitter with the R library(twitteR). Unfortunately that workflow has proven to be buggy, mostly for reasons having to do with authentication. As such I decided to learn Python and migrate my project to the Twython module. Overall, I've been very impressed by the language and the module. I haven't had any dependency problems and authentication works pretty smoothly. On the other hand, it requires a lot more manual coding to get around rate limits than does twitteR and this is a big part of what my scripts are doing.
I'll let you follow the standard instructions for installing Python 3 and the Twython module before showing you my workflow. Note that all of my code was run on Python 3.5.1 and OSX 10.9. You want to use Python 3, not Python 2 as tweets are UTF-8. If you're a Mac person, OSX comes with 2.7 but you will need to install Python3. For the same reason, use Stata 14 for tweets.
One tip on installation, pip tends to default to 2.7 so use this syntax in bash.
python3 -m pip install twython
I use three py scripts, one to write Twython queries to disk, one to query information about a set of Twitter users, and one to query tweets from a particular user. Note that the query scripts can be slow to execute, which is deliberate as otherwise you end up hitting rate limits. (Twitter's API allows fifteen queries per fifteen minutes). I call the two query scripts from bash with argument passing. The disk writing script is called by the query scripts and doesn't require user intervention, though you do need to be sure Python knows where to find it (usually by keeping it in the current working directory). Note that you will need to adjust things like file paths and authentication keys. (When accessing Twitter through scripts instead of your phone, you don't use usernames and passwords but keys and secrets, you can generate the keys by registering an application).
I am discussing this script first even though it is not directly called by the user because it is the most natural place to discuss Twython's somewhat complicated data structure. A Twython data object is a list of dictionaries. (I adapted this script for exporting lists of dictionaries). You can get a pretty good feel for what these objects look like by using type() and the pprint module. In this sample code, I explore a data object created by infoquery.py.
type(users) #shows that users is a list type(users[0]) #shows that each element of users is a dictionary #the objects are a bunch of brackets and commas, use pprint to make a dictionary (sub)object human-readable with whitespace import pprint pp=pprint.PrettyPrinter(indent=4) pp.pprint(users[0]) pp.pprint(users[0]['status']) #you can also zoom in on daughter objects, in this case the user's most recent tweet object. Note that this tweet is a sub-object within the user object, but may itself have sub-objects
As you can see if you use the pprint command, some of the dictionary values are themselves dictionaries. It's a real fleas upon fleas kind of deal. In the datacollection.py script I pull some of these objects out and delete others for the "clean" version of the data. Also note that tw2csv defaults to writing these second-level fields as one first-level field with escaped internal delimiters. So if you open a file in Excel, some of the cells will be really long and have a lot of commas in them. While Excel automatically parses the escaped commas correctly, Stata assumes you don't want them escaped unless you use this command:
import delimited "foo.csv", delimiter(comma) bindquote(strict) varnames(1) asdouble encoding(UTF-8) clear
Another tricky thing about Twython data is there can be variable number of dictionary entries (ie, some fields are missing from some cases). For instance, if a tweet is not a retweet it will be missing the "retweeted_status" dictionary within a dictionary. This was the biggest problem with reusing the Stack Overflow code and required adapting another piece of code for getting the union set of dictionary keys. Note this will give you all the keys used in any entry from the current query, but not those found uniquely in past or future queries. Likewise, Python sorts field order randomly. For these two reasons, I hard-coded tw2csv as overwrite, not append, and build in a timestamp to the query scripts. If you tweak the code to append, you will run into problems with the fields not lining up.
Anyway, here's the actual tw2csv code.
#tw2csv.py def tw2csv(twdata,csvfile_out): import csv import functools allkey = functools.reduce(lambda x, y: x.union(y.keys()), twdata, set()) with open(csvfile_out,'wt') as output_file: dict_writer=csv.DictWriter(output_file,allkey) dict_writer.writeheader() dict_writer.writerows(twdata)
One of the queries I like to run is getting basic information like date created, description, and follower counts. Basically, all the stuff that shows up on a user's profile page. The Twitter API allows you to do this for 100 users simultaneously and I do this with the infoquery.py script. It assumes that your list of target users is stored in a text file, but there's a commented out line that lets you hard code the users, which may be easier if you're doing it interactively. Likewise, it's designed to only query 100 users at a time, but there's a commented out line that's much simpler in interactive use if you're only querying a few users.
You can call it from the command line and it takes as an argument the location of the input file. I hard-coded the location of the output. Note the "3" in the command-line call is important as operating systems like OSX default to calling Python 2.7.
python3 infoquery.py list.txt
And here's the actual script. Note that I've taken out my key and secret. You'll have to register as an "application" and generate these yourself.
#infoquery.py from twython import Twython import sys import time from math import ceil import tw2csv #custom module parentpath='/Users/rossman/Documents/twittertrucks/infoquery_py' targetlist=sys.argv[1] #text file listing feeds to query, one per line. full path ok. today = time.strftime("%Y%m%d") csvfilepath_info=parentpath+'/info_'+today+'.csv' #authenticate APP_KEY='' #25 alphanumeric characters APP_SECRET='' #50 alphanumeric characters twitter=Twython(APP_KEY,APP_SECRET,oauth_version=2) #simple authentication object ACCESS_TOKEN=twitter.obtain_access_token() twitter=Twython(APP_KEY,access_token=ACCESS_TOKEN) handles = [line.rstrip() for line in open(targetlist)] #read from text file given as cmd-line argument #handles=("gabrielrossman,sociologicalsci,twitter") #alternately, hard-code the list of handles #API allows 100 users per query. Cycle through, 100 at a time #users = twitter.lookup_user(screen_name=handles) #this one line is all you need if len(handles) < 100 users=[] #initialize data object hl=len(handles) cycles=ceil(hl/100) #unlike a get_user_timeline query, there is no need to cap total cycles for i in range(0, cycles): ## iterate through all tweets up to max of 3200 h=handles[0:100] del handles[0:100] incremental = twitter.lookup_user(screen_name=h) users.extend(incremental) time.sleep(90) ## 90 second rest between api calls. The API allows 15 calls per 15 minutes so this is conservative tw2csv.tw2csv(users,csvfilepath_info)
This last script collects tweets for a specified user. The tricky thing about this code is that the Twitter API allows you to query the last 3200 tweets per user, but only 200 at a time, so you have to cycle over them. moreover, you have to build in a delay so you don't get rate-limited. I adapted the script from this code but made some tweaks.
One change I made was to only scrape as deep as necessary for any given user. For instance, as of this writing, @SociologicalSci has 1192 tweets, so it cycles six times, but if you run it in a few weeks @SociologicalSci would have over 1200 and so it would run at least seven cycles. This change makes the script run faster, but ultimately gets you to the same place.
The other change I made is that I save two versions of the file, one as is and the other that pulls out some objects from the subdictionaries and deletes the rest. If for some reason you don't care about retweet count but are very interested in retweeting user's profile background color, go ahead and modify the code. See above for tips on exploring the data structure interactively so you can see what there is to choose from.
As above, you'll need to register as an application and supply a key and secret.
You call it from bash with the target screenname as an argument.
python3 datacollection.py sociologicalsci
#datacollection.py from twython import Twython import sys import time import simplejson from math import ceil import tw2csv #custom module parentpath='/Users/rossman/Documents/twittertrucks/feeds_py' handle=sys.argv[1] #takes target twitter screenname as command-line argument today = time.strftime("%Y%m%d") csvfilepath=parentpath+'/'+handle+'_'+today+'.csv' csvfilepath_clean=parentpath+'/'+handle+'_'+today+'_clean.csv' #authenticate APP_KEY='' #25 alphanumeric characters APP_SECRET='' #50 alphanumeric characters twitter=Twython(APP_KEY,APP_SECRET,oauth_version=2) #simple authentication object ACCESS_TOKEN=twitter.obtain_access_token() twitter=Twython(APP_KEY,access_token=ACCESS_TOKEN) #adapted from http://www.craigaddyman.com/mining-all-tweets-with-python/ #user_timeline=twitter.get_user_timeline(screen_name=handle,count=200) #if doing 200 or less, just do this one line user_timeline=twitter.get_user_timeline(screen_name=handle,count=1) #get most recent tweet lis=user_timeline[0]['id']-1 #tweet id # for most recent tweet #only query as deep as necessary tweetsum= user_timeline[0]['user']['statuses_count'] cycles=ceil(tweetsum / 200) if cycles>16: cycles=16 #API only allows depth of 3200 so no point trying deeper than 200*16 time.sleep(60) for i in range(0, cycles): ## iterate through all tweets up to max of 3200 incremental = twitter.get_user_timeline(screen_name=handle, count=200, include_retweets=True, max_id=lis) user_timeline.extend(incremental) lis=user_timeline[-1]['id']-1 time.sleep(90) ## 90 second rest between api calls. The API allows 15 calls per 15 minutes so this is conservative tw2csv.tw2csv(user_timeline,csvfilepath) #clean the file and save it for i, val in enumerate(user_timeline): user_timeline[i]['user_screen_name']=user_timeline[i]['user']['screen_name'] user_timeline[i]['user_followers_count']=user_timeline[i]['user']['followers_count'] user_timeline[i]['user_id']=user_timeline[i]['user']['id'] user_timeline[i]['user_created_at']=user_timeline[i]['user']['created_at'] if 'retweeted_status' in user_timeline[i].keys(): user_timeline[i]['rt_count'] = user_timeline[i]['retweeted_status']['retweet_count'] user_timeline[i]['qt_id'] = user_timeline[i]['retweeted_status']['id'] user_timeline[i]['rt_created'] = user_timeline[i]['retweeted_status']['created_at'] user_timeline[i]['rt_user_screenname'] = user_timeline[i]['retweeted_status']['user']['name'] user_timeline[i]['rt_user_id'] = user_timeline[i]['retweeted_status']['user']['id'] user_timeline[i]['rt_user_followers'] = user_timeline[i]['retweeted_status']['user']['followers_count'] del user_timeline[i]['retweeted_status'] if 'quoted_status' in user_timeline[i].keys(): user_timeline[i]['qt_created'] = user_timeline[i]['quoted_status']['created_at'] user_timeline[i]['qt_id'] = user_timeline[i]['quoted_status']['id'] user_timeline[i]['qt_text'] = user_timeline[i]['quoted_status']['text'] user_timeline[i]['qt_user_screenname'] = user_timeline[i]['quoted_status']['user']['name'] user_timeline[i]['qt_user_id'] = user_timeline[i]['quoted_status']['user']['id'] user_timeline[i]['qt_user_followers'] = user_timeline[i]['quoted_status']['user']['followers_count'] del user_timeline[i]['quoted_status'] if user_timeline[i]['entities']['urls']: #list for j, val in enumerate(user_timeline[i]['entities']['urls']): urlj='url_'+str(j) user_timeline[i][urlj]=user_timeline[i]['entities']['urls'][j]['expanded_url'] if user_timeline[i]['entities']['user_mentions']: #list for j, val in enumerate(user_timeline[i]['entities']['user_mentions']): mentionj='mention_'+str(j) user_timeline[i][mentionj] = user_timeline[i]['entities']['user_mentions'][j]['screen_name'] if user_timeline[i]['entities']['hashtags']: #list for j, val in enumerate(user_timeline[i]['entities']['hashtags']): hashtagj='hashtag_'+str(j) user_timeline[i][hashtagj] = user_timeline[i]['entities']['hashtags'][j]['text'] if user_timeline[i]['coordinates'] is not None: #NoneType or Dict user_timeline[i]['coord_long'] = user_timeline[i]['coordinates']['coordinates'][0] user_timeline[i]['coord_lat'] = user_timeline[i]['coordinates']['coordinates'][1] del user_timeline[i]['coordinates'] del user_timeline[i]['user'] del user_timeline[i]['entities'] if 'place' in user_timeline[i].keys(): #NoneType or Dict del user_timeline[i]['place'] if 'extended_entities' in user_timeline[i].keys(): del user_timeline[i]['extended_entities'] if 'geo' in user_timeline[i].keys(): del user_timeline[i]['geo'] tw2csv.tw2csv(user_timeline,csvfilepath_clean)
Everything I Needed to Know (About Publication Bias), I Learned In (Pre-) Kindergarten
| Gabriel |
There has been a tremendous amount of hype over the last few years about universal pre-K as a magic bullet to solve all social problems. We see a lot of talk of return on investment at rates usually only promised by prosperity gospel preachers and Ponzi schemes. Unfortunately, two recent large-scale studies, one in Quebec and one in Tennessee, showed small negative effects for pre-K. An article writing up the Tennessee study in New York advises fear not, for:
These are all good studies, and they raise important questions. But none of them is an indictment of preschool, exactly, so much as an indictment of particular approaches to it. How do we know that? Two landmark studies, first published in 1993 and 2008, demonstrate definitively that, if done right, state-sponsored pre-K can have profound, lasting, and positive effects — on individuals and on a community.
It then goes on to explain that the Perry and Abecedarian projects were studies involving 123 and 100 people respectively, had marvelous outcomes, and were play rather than drill oriented.
The phrase "demonstrate definitively" is the kind of phrase you have to very careful with and it just looks silly to say that this definitive knowledge comes from two studies with sample size of about a hundred. Tiny studies with absurdly large effects sizes are exactly where you would expect to find publication bias. Indeed, this is almost inevitable when the sample sizes are so underpowered that the only way to get β/se>1.96 is for β to be implausibly large. (As Jeremy Freese observed, this is among the dozen or so major problems with the PNAS himmicane study).
The standard way to detect publication bias is through a meta-analysis showing that small studies have big effects and big studies have small effects. For instance, this is what Card and Krueger showed in a meta-analysis of the minimum wage literature which demonstrated that their previous paper on PA/NJ was only an outlier when you didn't account for publication bias. Similarly, in a 2013 JEP, Duncan and Magnuson do a meta-analysis of the pre-K literature. Their visualization in figure 2 emphasizes the declining effects sizes over time, but you can also see that the large studies (shown as large circles) generally have much smaller β than the small studies (shown as small circles). If we added the Tennessee and Quebec studies to this plot they would be large circles on the right slightly below the x-axis. That is to say, they would fall right on the regression line and might even pull it down further.
This is what publication bias looks like: old small studies have big effects and new large studies have small effects.
I suppose it's possible that the reason Perry and Abecedarian showed big results is because the programs were better implemented than those in the newer studies, but this is not "demonstrated definitively" and given the strong evidence that it's all publication bias, let's tentatively assume that if something's too good to be true (such as that a few hours a week can almost deterministically make kids stay in school, earn a solid living, and stay out of jail), then it ain't.


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On Monday, the Landmark Commission voted to hold the Hard Rock Cafe pre-designation decision for 30 days. During that time, the building will be protected from demolition as if it were landmarked.
I have not spoken with the prospective owner this week, but understand he may have some reluctance to designate the property. I am hopeful that we can work out a win-win situation that both protects the building and provides him with all the development rights (and perhaps more) that will allow him to have a successful business at the site.
The Landmark Commission will consider whether to begin the designation process in 30 days.

subset: commoncrawl


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Get out of the house this summer
Head up for a very "cool" Schweitzer Rocks Day Camp...
You name it, we've got it. Nine fun filled weeks! Each week includes highlights such as hiking, crafts, chairlift rides, swimming, climbing wall, trampoline jumper, and more.
9 Jam Packed Sessions
For kids 6-10 years old.
Transportation from bottom of the mountain included.
Snacks and supplies provided.
NEW FOR SUMMER 2019 - We're adding ONE DAY CAMPS this year on 5 Saturdays in the summer! All the same fun as the week long camps just packed into one day for only $50 for kids ages 6 - 10!
For more information check out the FAQ below, read the info and safety sheet, or contact Schweitzer's Activity Center at 208.255.3081.
What is a week at camp like?
Each week, campers can look forward to climbing the rock wall twice, the trampoline jumper twice, ride the lift at least twice, hiking, village games, a trip to the Cranky Jennings Sluice Box, swimming every day, a hot dog roast on Fridays and much more!
Is there transportation?
Yes! We will pick you up in a small Schweitzer bus at the Schweitzer Park and Ride at the base of the mountain at 8am and bring you back at 4pm.
What if I don't know anybody there?
Everyone makes fast friends at Schweitzer Camp! You'll have fun making new friends or you can always invite a friend to join you at camp!
Are all the kids together all day?
Most of the time, all the campers stay together. However, depending on activities we may divide into 2 groups; for example, if we are going on a hike one group may go on a long hike and one group may go on a shorter hike. One group may decide to make a craft and the other rides the chairlift. (You will make the choice which group you go with.)
What if I don't know how to swim?
The pool complex has hot tubs and a shallow end you may enjoy. The pool is an hour glass shape with one side being shallow. Campers are only allowed in the deep end once they demonstrate adequate swimming skills. You can also bring a life vest if you want to. Swimming lessons will not be provided.
How many kids will be there?
Usually there are 20 kids at camp and 3 leaders.
What if it rains?
Rain can happen, but there's still plenty to do if it does! We won't let it ruin our day. We may still go outside or we may choose to do indoor activities.
What about my safety?
Safety of campers is our number one priority! Specific protocol has been outlined for many situations including chairlift rides, swimming pool, and hiking. Camp counselors are certified in Red Cross first aid and CPR, and are also educated in basic pool safety. Specifics are outlined upon registration confirmation.
How do I sign up?
Register online using the link above. Space is limited and sells out early every year so don't wait!


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How Often Do Customers Want to Receive Emails From Brands?
- Email Marketing
- Feb 11, 2016
- 0 Comments
You'd think researching the answer to whether or not customers want to receive emails from brands they interact with would reveal a fundamental truth. Alas, nothing is ever easy, especially in the digital world. But, that's where MarketingSherpa comes in; they do that grunt work for the masses so that each of us doesn't have to.
Still, though, their answer to how often customers want to receive emails from brands isn't all that easy to decipher unilaterally. Certain demographics like customer income and nuances like messaging cadence can have a significant impact on email marketing outcomes. These elements and others are revealed in MarketingSherpa's article. They also offer some suggestions to help increase message effectiveness and they provide a nifty little chart to help you understand.
One of the ways that your email marketing efforts can benefit right now is by reading our post How to Create a Successful Email Message. Then, contact us and we can discuss an effective cadence and frequency for your campaign.
Richard Bergér is the VP of E-Business for ASTRALCOM, an integrated media services company located near Los Angeles, California. Richard draws on his military and psychology backgrounds to create pervasive content strategies, motivating conversion tactics and targeted audience acquisition for clients. Connect with Richard via his LinkedIn profile.
Subscribe to post updates via email straight from our E-Business Digest, Join our audience:


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Adrianne Lenker (of Big Thief) w/ Henry Jamison
Saturday, March 3
Doors 7pm / Show 8pm
$11 Members / $13 ADV / $15 DOS
All ages / Seated
Adrianne Lenker, Big Thief's lead singer, paints in vivid tones, "The process of harnessing pain, loss, and love, while simultaneously letting go, looking into your own eyes through someone else's, and being okay with the inevitability of death," in her words.
Masterpiece, Big Thief's debut album (Saddle Creek), is filled with characters and visceral narratives, songs that pivot in the space of a few words. Adrianne's voice and guitar playing speak of rich emotional territory with grace and insight. In her words, the record tracks "the masterpiece of existence, which is always folding into itself, people attempting to connect, to both shake themselves awake and to shake off the numbness of certain points in their life. The interpretations might be impressionistic or surrealistic, but they're grounded in simple things.
Adrianne met her longtime musical partner, guitarist and singer, Buck Meek, in Brooklyn a few years ago, and they quickly formed a creative bond tempered by the experience of traveling and performing for months on end in old dive bars, yards, barns, and basements together. They recorded a pair of duo albums (A-Sides and B-Sides), and Adrianne showcased her songs on a solo album, Hours Were The Birds.


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Nocaut Tequila Reposado
Image courtesy of referenced tequila brand
Nocaut Tequila Reposado is a 100% agave tequila, aged in used Jim Beam barrels for 6 months, and comes in a boxing glove shaped bottle.
Nocaut Tequila Reposado is the tiger in the cage. Pure golden colour with hints of butter and cinnamon, integrated perfectly with the right amount of wood. Silky on the tongue, wonderful finish.
- Distillery: Casa Tequilera de Arandas, S.A. de C.V.
- Region: Highlands - Los Altos
- Distillation Steps: Double
- Barrel/Cask: Bourbon
- Alc. Vol: 40%


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Throwback Thursday episode 045 Chasen Cameron - Doing the uncomfortable, effort+consistency=success, and uncontrollable force.
Throwback Thursday!
Original air date: 2/2017
Chasen Cameron joins us to discuss why he stresses the importance of being uncomfortable to his athletes. He also breaks down the equation "effort+consistency=success" and shares his thoughts on why uncontrollable force is unusable force.
Please visit http://bit.ly/fitnesscandorpodcast, click View in iTunes, go to Ratings and Reviews at the top and leave a rating and/or review! That would be helpful for both of us and get our conversation to more people!


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Malaysia sits at the heart of Southeast Asia's most bio-diverse territory, covering thousands of plant and animal species in a multitude of habitats, altitudes, and ecosystems. In its wisdom, the Malaysian government has set aside parts of its territory as nature reserves: places where visitors can see nature up close without spoiling the environment.
Check out these nature reserves the next time you visit Malaysia – many of them are surprisingly close to major Malaysian cities, and can be seen in the space of a day.
Gunung Gading National Park
Gunung Gading National Park in Sarawak was established specifically to protect the rare, odoriferous Rafflesia flower, one of Southeast Asia's weirdest wildlife finds. The park is the perfect setting for the Rafflesia flower – the landscape is carpeted in dense rainforest and cut through by mountain streams. A plankwalk crosses the ground above blooming Rafflesia, allowing visitors to observe the plants without disturbing them.
The Park is best explored through a series of trekking trails, the longest one ascending the park's namesake mountain (Gunung Gading). The Gunung Gading park can be easily reached from the city of Kuching; only day trips are permitted within the park grounds, as camping in the park is not allowed.
Lambir Hills National Park
For such a small park (17,180 acres), the Lambir Hills National Park in Sarawak possesses an extremely diverse ecosystem, with thousands of plant and animal species sheltering in the park premises. Take birds – over 230 different avian species can be found in Lambir Hills! Perhaps it's the rugged terrain –the hilly sandstone covered with dipterocarp forest and an endless series of bathing pools and waterfalls.
Visitors can explore Lambir Hills through a variety of forest walks for all fitness levels – some walks take less than 20 minutes to finish, while others require the whole day and a stout constitution. The park is conveniently located only 30 minutes by bus from Miri.
Kuala Selangor Nature Park
Only two hours' drive from Kuala Lumpur, this wetland nature reserve protects about 800 acres of mangrove, estuaries, and a 25-acre brackish lake. Permanent residents include fiddler crabs, silvered langur monkeys, herons, and Brahminy kites. Migratory birds also use Kuala Selangor as a stopover.
Around the lake, you can set up shop at one of three wildlife observation towers, and watch out for the wildlife going about their business. Visits to the park begin at the Visitor's Center, where you can pay for entrance and get refreshments and souvenirs after your jaunt around the park.
Mount Kinabalu
Mount Kinabalu looms over 13,000 feet over Sabah – the tallest mountain in Malaysia, covering about 300 square miles of pristine forest and mountain territory sheltering over 326 species of birds, 4500 species of plant, and 100 different species of mammal. Surprisingly, the mountain is a relative doddle to climb - over 40,000 people a year come to Mount Kinabalu just to climb it, with no need for special equipment or experience.
Due to the biodiversity on its slopes, Mount Kinabalu (specifically, the park that was created to protect it) was recognized as Malaysia's first World Heritage Site in 2000. The entrance to the park is located about 56 miles from Kota Kinabalu, a two-hour journey by bus from the state capital.
Penang National Park
Malaysia's smallest and youngest national park is located on the northwestern tip of Penang Island – a ten square mile parcel of land that shelters a "meromictic" lake (a kind of lake with both salty and fresh water that do not mix), eight of Penang's most unspoiled beaches, and mangrove forests.
Start at the Interpretation Center at the park entrance before you head out into the interior. Three trails lead into the Park's diverse collection of habitats; you can actually see the entirety of the park's contents within a single day if you begin early enough!
Semenggoh Nature Reserve
The 1,613-acre Semenggoh Nature Reserve is an animal shelter dedicated to the preservation of the endangered orangutan. Far from being kept in cages, the orangutans in Semenggoh are allowed to come and go as they please, enjoying the thick forest canopy as free apes and benefiting from the care of the park rangers. Most of the orangutans came to Semenggoh as orphans or rescues from captivity - the main goal of the park is to help them re-acclimate to life in the wild.
In Semenggoh, you get a rare chance to see orangutans in their natural habitat, before they make it out on their own. The park is only 12 miles south of Kuching - a bus leaves from Jalan Mosque to go to Semenggoh.
Sepilok Orangutan Rehabilitation Center
Like the Semenggoh nature reserve, Sepilok in East Sabah is dedicated to the care and protection of the endangered orangutan endemic to Borneo's forests. The park is set amidst the 5,529-hectare Kabili-Sepilok Forest Reserve near the city of Sandakan: visitors climb large viewing platforms to see apes being rehabilitated for future life in the wild. Your best chance of seeing Sepilok's orangutans occurs during feeding times at 10am and 2:30pm; visitors are discouraged from actually touching the apes.
In the same forest reserve, the Rainforest Discovery Centre allows visitors to see forest life from above, through a series of elevated walkways and towers that allow visitors to view the forest canopy and its residents from 100 feet in the air!
Tunku Abdul Rahman Park
This marine park covers about 12,185 acres of sea territory, with five islands and masses of coral reefs within its boundaries. Located only five miles from Kota Kinabalu, the Tunku Abdul Rahman National Park is a favorite getaway for Kinabalu families on weekends. You can go camping on the beach on most of the islands in the park, but you'll be charged a camping permit before you set up camp.
Tunku Abdul Rahman Park's corals shelter an impressive variety of marine life – this, in addition to the marine park's shallow water and weak currents, make it a prime stop for divers. If you're lucky, you may see whale sharks hunting plankton in these waters. (Find out more about diving in Sabah.)
Labuk Bay Proboscis Monkey Sanctuary
Set in 400 acres of Sabah jungle about 24 miles from Sandakan airport, the Labuk Bay Proboscis Monkey Sanctuary is home to about 60 floppy-nosed proboscis monkeys, a small community of gravely endangered primates whose habitat has been seriously eroded by human encroachment. (Forests have been cleared to make way for palm oil plantations – the monkeys have nowhere else to go.)
Visitors get a rare chance to see proboscis monkeys in a semi-wild environment within the park premises - two platforms serve the monkeys during two daily feeding times. The park's trails also allow guests to explore the surrounding forest; visitors should leave early in the morning, to see the animals at their most active.


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Victaulic is the leading producer of mechanical pipe joining solutions. We build technologies and provide engineering services that address the most complex piping challenges faced by engineers, site owners, contractors and distributors. Engineered with confidence, our solutions put people to work faster, while increasing safety, ensuring reliability and maximizing efficiency.
Today, Victaulic is known as the leading innovator in piping solutions and services. The company continues to transform the industry with the most advanced engineering technologies and services that allow customers to tackle their most unique construction challenges.
Togetherness — that's what our Mechanical Joining systems are all about. Gasket Technology and Grooved Technology form the basis for our advanced couplings. All are manufactured to exacting standards and for optimal performance to satisfy your piping requirements.
Victaulic adheres to the highest standards of professional behavior and ethics in all of its interactions with employees, customers and local communities. Integrity and professionalism have been the hallmarks of our business, the reason for our longevity, and will contribute to the company's ongoing success.
Our Mission is to manage the acquisition of products and services needed to support the requirements of Victaulic's engineering, sales and marketing, manufacturing, distribution and financial functions. We will accomplish this while adhering to the highest standards of fiscal responsibility, ethics and professionalism.
Victaulic is committed to maintaining compliance with all applicable import and export trade compliance laws and regulations, as well as other mandatory trade sanctions, in countries where Victaulic conducts business. Victaulic will not knowingly import or export products contrary to US and/or local government import and export laws and regulations.
Notable Projects
Mario M. Cuomo Bridge, U.S.
The Mario M. Cuomo Bridge, which replaced the Tappan Zee Bridge in New York, showcases Victaulic drainage and fire suppression standpipe systems. The contractor's confidence in Victaulic's long-term service and product qualifications helped to solidify the expected 100-year service life of this bridge.


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Treat your group to New York City's favorite holiday tradition—the Christmas Spectacular! An awe-inspiring celebration in the most beautiful of all New York theaters, Radio City Music Hall, it's a show generations of Christmas fans love and return to see year after year. Make your holiday plans early with our world-class group sales department to get the best seats and exclusive savings!
Group Sales Benefits:
- Exclusive group ticket pricing with flexible payment plans
- Dedicated group sales representative to help plan your day and provide service and support for all of your group's needs
- Opportunity to enhance your group's experience with add-on options, including on-stage performances, Rockettes dance classes, private party spaces and more
Show Calendar
View all available dates and showtimes below. Show run time is 90 minutes with no intermission.
Seat Map
Explore the view from each section at Radio City. Exact seat availability and prices are subject to change at the time of purchase on Ticketmaster.


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For news, info, and secret spoilers, enter your email address to subscribe to the Furoticon newsletter!
(May 10th, 2012)
4 Vanilla Box Sets left!
by Seppel
Just a heads-up: There are only 4 Vanilla Box Sets left in existence! If you're thinking about getting one,
now is the time
Remember - this is the *only* way to get your hands on a 1st Vanilla Male Starter deck! After that, they're gone!
These boys aren't going to last forever!
Grab them!
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Hospitals & Clinics
- Days Listed: 284 days
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Zebra Movers Newmarket is one of the best and most reliable companies in Newmarket. Fully licensed and insured, we are serving more than ten years. For these time we served more than 10,000 satisfied customers. Call Us Now And Get Your Free Quote Today.
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Looking for something different? Check these nearby listings.


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When Fruit Case Juiced Casey's Pockets With Cash
Fruit Case is fun to play and it could just juice your wallet with a good cash prize.
Move the fruits along and eventually win by crushing them into mellow and lovely juice. This is what you are going to do when you play Fruit Case slot machine online. As we found out, this game has produced a number of winners and we were lucky enough to catch up with one of them, Casey, from Oxford in the UK who won £900 from a bet of £45 over at 7red casino after using the 7red free spins bonus. Seems like a fair exchange, no?
"I know that 900 quid sounds like a small deal to a seasoned gambler out there, but for me, I say that it is a good amount for 30 minutes of playing slot at 45 quid. Seems like a small cost to pay and of course I am very delighted with myself". She says
"It was actually very easy to play on the slot machine FruitCase as Casey says because like all the other slot games, the wild symbol meant that she could squeeze the fruits for just some more juice. With each match of symbols on the bet lines, there will be a wild multiplier thus increasing the chances of winning for the player". Casey says.
You too can be a lucky winner like Casey and with a little luck and precision; you can be take home a tidy amount that could boost your monthly budget a great deal. Being one of the smart games from Net Entertainment, you can be sure that you will not have one boring moment on this slot machine.
What advice does Casey have for newbie players? Playing on the slot machines is not rocket science and anyone can win. All you need to do is to understand the rules of the game. And then play consistently. Know the maximum bets and when you are feeling real lucky, bet more. For every spin in Fruit Case, players can bet up to £100, the maximum that one can bet for a single spin.
"Playing on the slot machines online is fun and I think most people put the money ahead of the fun. When you win your cash prize, you will actually be caught by surprise". Casey says.


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New Arrivals
Your first look at new designs and colors as they are added. Flattering tops, versatile cascading vests and the perfect little black dress. Made in America especially for women over 40, women over 50 and beyond. Come back often.
Knotted Bottom Top$49.95
Off the shoulder
Regular Price: $49.95
Special Price $39.99
Zipper front top$59.95
Vest with pockets$44.95
When new arrivals are added to the Covered Perfectly collection this is the place to look. Here you will find fashion for women over 50 designed to cover your tummy and the ¾ length sleeves are designed to cover your arms, at least the part we don't want to reveal, like the bat wings, bingo wings or whatever else people call them. You can hide your muffin top with these great designs, that offer the perfect drape for fashion for women over 60 at its best. Let's not forget fashion for women over 40, they got upset when we left them out. The staple fabric is Micro Modal, which is super-soft and luxurious fabric. Micromodal is breathable so perfect for women going through menopause. MicroModal women's tops are a great investment piece as with the right care they will last you a very long time. Made in America, Los Angeles California to be exact. You can buy America without high costs. The prices are very reasonable, with tops starting at just $39.95. For made in America, Micro Modal that is a great investment. There's also a special, you can buy two and receive a third free, any combination, site wide. Plus, shipping is free on any purchase over $47 with free returns in the US. Risk free shopping for you. Get started with your Covered Perfectly design today.


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James Chambers
James Chambers was born in Ireland and, like Palmerston, educated at Harrow. His other highly-acclaimed books include 'The Devil's Horsemen' (a study of the Mongol invasion of Europe); 'The Norman Kings'; 'The English House'; and 'Charlotte and Leopold' (a life of the Prince Regent's daughter).
A former President of the British Fencing Association, and Olympic Committee member, he commented on the sport for television, as well as lecturing and broadcasting on history.
He died suddenly, of leukaemia, in 2012.
Palmerston: The People's Darling
Christopher Wren


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Why the Pressure is on for the YEN to Strengthen
The break-down of the YEN weakening relative to the US stock market may seem incidental to many. But strong correlations of a foreign currency to an exponential rise in the S&P500 since the first of 2013, after already significant gains from the lows of 2009, is a sign that something is changing. In other words, it is time to pay attention. Unfortunately, when things begin to change after large advances in asset prices, it usually means there is a busted trade and the risk of cascading losses start to build up in the markets. I raise this concern because since the first of this year investors have witnessed a growing number of market unwinds – gold, emerging markets, U.S. Treasury markets and the Nikkei. And now we see a changing dynamic in the YEN relative to the dollar, at a time when many are expecting further YEN weakening.
To assess the risk and understand why this is happening, I decided to do an in-depth review of the capital flows into and out of Japan that would influence the price of the JPY relative to the USD.
The following series of charts examine the investment capital flows from sales and purchases of investments by various groups that would influence the relative strength or weakness of the YEN over the last year (YEN has been converted to USD based on the prevailing average monthly exchange rate in all data obtained from the Japan Ministry of Finance).
The interesting information in the data shows up in 2013. From the beginning of the year onward, Japanese residents have brought investment capital back into Japan. The sale of foreign equities continued. But more important information in the data is that the Japanese resident investors began to sell foreign bond investments. Seems like a rational investment move. The YEN has depreciated considerably, and to the extent the bonds were US based, interest rates are at all-time lows. It must look like a perfect time to sell high.
Another major influencing factor on the value of the YEN is the recent run-up in the Nikkei and the corresponding inflow of capital into Japanese equities. The chart below shows the level of capital which has flowed into Japan since the beginning of 2012:
The inflow of capital throughout the majority of months since 2012 has tended to put pressure on the Japanese YEN to rise. The data show that the majority of the capital has flowed into equities and out of Japanese bonds since October of 2012. Prior to October 2012, the investment flow was primarily into Japanese bonds. The large outflow months in October 2012, December 2012 and March 2013 were all major withdraws of funds from foreigners from Money Market Accounts – money on the sidelines that went somewhere else.
The third major area examined to get an understanding of what is influencing the value of the YEN, particularly as it directly relates to the USD, is the changing level of investments in U.S. Treasury securities. The chart below shows Japan's net position changes in U.S. Treasuries by month from May 2012 through April 2013 (the latest month data is available):
The trend in this data is very interesting. The prime method over the years by Japan and other Asian countries to weaken their currency relative to the USD is to purchase U.S. Treasury securities. U.S. treasuries and U.S. Government Mortgage backed securities have been a primary staple food in the carry-trade diet for years. But look at the data – the BOJ has been a net seller of U.S. Treasuries since the end of 2012. Whether this is willingly, or a result of called issues which have ended up on the Fed balance sheet, I do not know. But the trend is clear. This data again should be putting pressure on the YEN to strengthen, not weaken.
Japan's Trade Balance Data
The last major influencing factor on the relative strength or weakness on the YEN that I examined is the Balance of Payments data for Japan over the past year – specifically the current account surplus / (deficit) by month. This data is in the chart below.
It is not surprising that Japan, a major net exporter nation, has run a current account surplus a majority of the time over the past 12 months. Japan has an export driven economy and the trade balance surplus is what would be expected. There is one point in the chart which did peak my interest. At the end of 2012 and early 2013, Japan ran a current account deficit. This was the same time period that the YEN actually did begin to weaken. However, as we progressed into the spring of 2013, the current account again showed its usual surpluses.
Summarizing the Japanese YEN Currency Relative Strength versus the USD
When all of the data are put together, the tendency of the YEN to strengthen versus the USD after its run up over 100 USDJPY becomes clearer. The chart below shows all the sources of investment capital flows over the past year into and out of Japan, including Japan Resident Foreign Investments, Foreign Investor Purchases of Japanese Investments and BOJ net purchases / sales of U.S. Treasuries. The chart also shows the value of the USDJPY over the past year.
In Japan, the current account surplus must be accompanied by a net outflow of capital in order for the YEN not to have a strong tendency to rise against the USD. Also from the data, it is important to remember that Japan ran a current account deficit from Nov-Jan in the chart timeframe above (this data is not in the investment capital flow data on the chart – it is additive). When all of the data is combined the weakening of the YEN up to February of 2013 appears to have a good rational basis.
However, since February actual data and the directional move in the currency relative to the USD have been very much out of synch.
It is only speculation as to why this has happened. Obviously currency speculators and front-running carry-trade positions may be playing a roll. There was a tremendous expectation that because of Abe Shinzo's announcement that the YEN carry trade would once again become that status quo relationship between the U.S. and Japanese financial markets. Many investors may have raced out in front of this trade by indirectly borrowing in YEN and buying the U.S. stock market. If this is the leveraged position of anyone's portfolio today, they are really betting on "hope", and looking for a set of crutches from Ben Bernanke this week – because the data which tracks real investment capital flows shows this position is busted. It actually looks more likely that the YEN may return to the level it traded last summer unless Ben Bernanke allows U.S. interest rates to rise dramatically – much more than they already have.
Does Ben Bernanke have Carry Trade Crutches?
How can Ben Bernanke prop up investors caught in a leveraged yen financed U.S. stock market position? It is not clear at this point he can.
On Wednesday if the Fed Chairman announces a much slower pace of tapering in QE, he really is just promising to back-fill the increasing outflow of foreign investment in U.S. Treasury securities – some of which is Japanese based. Suppressing of U.S. interest rates at this point by continuing to make high levels of Treasury purchases as capital flows out of the U.S. will only work to strengthen the YEN – and weaken the USD.
If the Fed announces that it will taper much quicker, this could serve as an eventual means to attract a stronger flow of funds back into the US to finance the U.S. government deficit as well as the on-going current account deficit. However, stronger tapering talk near-term is a big negative for the stock market.
The Real Danger to the S&P500
The information about what is happening from a Japanese market perspective is informative, if not outright concerning for the S&P500 investors taking new positions now. What is propping up the U.S. market right now is fear – fear that U.S. interest rates will rise. Japanese investors are exiting the bond markets worldwide even as their domestic policy supplies an even greater level of financial liquidity. Additionally, the Bank of Japan, and other worldwide central banks are lowering reserve levels of U.S. Treasury securities. Some of this activity may be a direct result of Jack Lew's public statements on May 10th that Asian countries that enter the U.S. Treasury market to weaken their currency with purported "domestic stimulus expenditures" will be heavily scrutinized.
Whatever the rational, the data reflect a cascade of pressure on the U.S. Treasury market to unwind. In reality, what was once a QE program to add domestic market liquidity to encourage investment and somehow promote job growth is turning into a revolving facility to off-set foreign sales of Treasury bonds.
The Fed's $85B a month budget may not be enough to cover the total outflow which might be encountered if the QE program continues. I track the foreign purchases of U.S. Treasuries, which is currently at a near all-time high of 47.5% on the Financial Calculus web-site. The April release of the foreign purchases was interesting. It showed a 1% down-tick in relative foreign positions - with many countries in Europe as well as Japan being the sellers.
The outflow of funds in this fashion from foreign investment usually does not end well for the US stock market if it continues for any length of time. In the time frames over the past 50 years where there has been a net outflow of U.S. Treasury bond investments by foreigners, the most significant downward change happened in late 1999 end into the year 2000. This move preceded a sharp move downward in the stock market. A similar movement of foreign investment happened in 1973-74. With the precariously high level of foreign investment today, this issue is the number one specter, in my opinion that is hanging over the market.
Investing Strategy Today
My advice at this point is that the Japanese resident investors seem to be taking the most rational approach to investing at this point. Reduce bonds and equities positions, re-trench and wait for a better entry point. In other words, hold not cash and cash equivalent positions in your portfolio.
Ben Bernanke is going to have to raise rates, and also provide a slow reversal of QE. The exodus of capital out of U.S. Treasuries is not likely to change until there is a clear break-down in the S&P500. The magnitude of the cascading of losses which will happen as the rates increase is the real unknown – but it is very unlikely that given why rates are rising – exodus of foreign capital from U.S. Treasuries - that hiding out in the stock market should be considered a place of safety until the actual rate adjustment process forces the reversal of the recent run-up.


text: Stream Jidenna's 'The Chief' LP Brandon Caldwell February 16, 2017 Album Streams, Music 1 Comment Jidenna's long-awaited debut album 'The Chief' is here featuring the whole Wondaland camp. Two years ago, Jidenna broke through as Wondaland's next hit maker. "Classic Man", a flip on Iggy Azalea's "Fancy" not only broke through on radio and more, it solidified Wondaland as an imprint that stretched far beyond Janelle Monae. Equipped with talents that stretched beyond singing and rapping, the Nigerian artist managed to spend his two years between "Classic Man" and now flexing his talents. Fans got a preview of "Long Live The Chief" during the debut season of Marvel's Luke Cage. They also got a small hint of his acting chops during last season of HBO's Insecure. The music however, never left Jidenna. The Monáe protégé has released a string of singles from "The Let Out" to "Bambi" that have kept fans hooked. Now on this fine February night, Jidenna releases his debut album, The Chief. Clocking in at 14 tracks, the album features "Little Bit More", "Chief Don't Run" along with Wondaland members St. Beauty, Monáe, Nana Kwabena & Roman GianArthur. Plus, there's a little something about track number 13 that more than likely will keep Jidenna's name in headlines from here on out. Stream The Chief from Jidenna below via Apple Music and purchase it on iTunes. Share this:TweetShare on Tumblr


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Lauren Conrad Is Engaged, Will Probably Have A Perfectly Sweet Crafty Wedding
It's been a while since we checked in with the former stars of The Hills, but it seems at least some of them are having better luck in their love lives since the show ended: Lauren Conrad is engaged! To some dude who is not a reality star!
Conrad and boyfriend William Tell have been dating for two years, and over this past weekend Conrad made the announcement of the engagement on her personal website.
I am very excited to share with you guys that William and I got engaged over the weekend.
I am beyond thrilled! Get ready for lots more wedding content here on LaurenConrad.com as we begin the planning process.
Conrad is, I am told, known for being pretty crafty since her Hills ending, so as she mentioned you can probably expect loads of how-to and DIY videos on how to pick bridesmaids dresses and wedding ribbons and all of the above and all of that. Wedding stuff! Pretty things!
Her husband-to-be is a law student and not a reality star, so we probably won't be seeing their big day airing on MTV or whatnot. You CAN, however, witness her engagement ring, as she posted a photo of it to her site:
Image: Lauren Conrad


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SAN MATEO, Calif., June 20, 2017 /PRNewswire/ – Rakuten Marketing, a leading technology company that enables brands to increase sales through data-driven marketing, today released its latest Rakuten Marketing Insights report: Consumer Online Ad Sentiments: What Needs to Change About Online Advertising. The survey findings reveal global consumer attitudes about online advertising, including their annoyance with ad frequency and their desire for better ad personalization – both of which contribute to the low tolerance of advertising that has cost $22 billion in revenue from ad blocking. Rakuten Marketing is taking action on these findings by launching a leadership movement to Save the Web. Through this initiative, Rakuten Marketing will help advertisers and publishers create positive ad experiences by providing insights, technology and strategies that better reflect the relationships consumers want to have with their brands.
Advertising Interrupts Online Experiences, Consumers Say
Over the last 20 years there has been outstanding innovation in ad tech, but, according to the survey, most consumers believe online advertising has stayed static or gotten worse over time. The majority of consumers, 82 percent, also say that too much advertising interrupts their online experiences, particularly ads that pop-up and cover content, pre-roll video ads, and ads that are delivered through push notification. Frequency is also an issue for consumers – 56 percent have felt that a single brand was advertising to them too frequently. Perhaps most troubling is that 67 percent of consumers associate online advertising with other disruptive content, including fake news.
U.S. consumer findings include:
- 69 percent of consumers say online advertising needs to change.
- 50 percent proactively 'opt-out' of online ads.
- 40 percent abandon websites because of bad ad experiences.
- 48 percent believe websites are responsible for improving online experiences, followed closely by 36 percent who believe the responsibility lies with brands. This means advertisers and publishers need to be aligned on solving this problem to protect their online revenue opportunity.
According to Tony Zito, CEO, Raktuen Marketing, "The findings from this research revealed important data on the current state of consumer sentiments about online advertising. Access to free content online is one of the most valuable propositions the internet offers, but the advertising that funds it needs to get better. At Rakuten Marketing, all of the investments we make are towards better understanding the advertising that meaningfully influences consumers, so we can improve overall performance, and solve this problem."
Consumers Like Advertising That is Helpful and Personalized
Not all consumer sentiment about online advertising is negative, according to the Rakuten Marketing Insights report. Seventy percent of consumers polled recognize advertising can enhance their shopping experience when it connects them to more options and better discounts. Many consumers proactively engage with certain native ad experiences, and prefer advertising that is personalized to their likes, lifestyles and interests.
U.S. consumer findings include:
- 57 percent of consumers follow an online blogger or social influencer.
- 88 percent of those who follow an influencer have made a purchase the influencer recommended.
- Nearly 90 percent seek out discount codes on voucher/coupon sites before making a purchase.
The key takeaway – 81 percent of U.S. consumers want brands to know that advertising is acceptable when the ad content is useful and doesn't interrupt their online experience.
We Can Save The Web
Through its Save the Web initiative, Rakuten Marketing is challenging the industry to improve brand, publisher and consumer relationships by increasing the amount of good advertising that brings value to consumers, without the disruption. The goal is to promote greater transparency, create more meaningful consumer engagement, decrease ad blocking, and increase revenue opportunities.
Zito continued, "Rakuten Marketing operates at the cross-section between brands and publishers and the consumers they serve, making us uniquely positioned to lead an industry change that unifies their interests. We are passionate about driving the education, communication and action needed to create a more positive and profitable web."
The full Rakuten Marketing Insights Consumer Online Ad Sentiments results are available here: rakutenmarketing.com/save-the-web. The survey was completed by more than 2,500 global consumers who responded to an online questionnaire distributed by third-party research company, Qualtrics. The questionnaires were completed between April 17-21, 2017. Follow Save The Web on Facebook to get ongoing updates, insights and news about consumers' relationships with online advertising.
For more information about Rakuten Marketing and its integrated marketing solutions that deliver clear and actionable insights into consumer experiences, visit https://rakutenmarketing.com.
About Rakuten Marketing
Rakuten Marketing is the global leader in integrated marketing solutions, spanning affiliate, display and search. Rakuten Marketing empowers marketers to achieve the full potential of digital marketing by delivering data-driven personalized ad experiences that engage consumers – across screens, platforms and traditional publishers – and influence them to purchase. Rakuten Marketing is committed to transparency, providing consumer journey insights that are used to continually optimize for performance.
Rakuten Marketing is a division of Rakuten Inc. (4755: TOKYO), one of the world's leading Internet service companies. The company is headquartered in San Mateo, California, with offices in Australia, Brazil, Japan, the United Kingdom, and throughout the United States. Follow us on Twitter or learn more at https://rakutenmarketing.com.
PR Contact
Lisa Tadje, Sr. Director, Communications
Rakuten Marketing


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I'm so excited to tell you guys about a fun fashionable find I got to try out. In my opinion its great for all ages depending on your style. Its called Fashion Flexy. Its a mix of hair accessories and jewelry that you can use as hair ties but also when not in use double as bracelets. It helps people like me a lot! I like to have my hair down when its cold but then as soon as I get a little hot, up it goes and I always worry I wont be able to find a hair tie. Now I can always carry one around my wrist and you would think it was just another accessory.
Let me show you the neat stuff I got to try out:
Here's some fun pictures of them on:
There are so many styles to choose from depending on the occasion and you can even special order some for special events such as business, charity, Runs, etc. The prices are pretty great too, most start as low as $2 (without charm)! I think thats great if you have a big group of girls for a sleep over/birthday party and want to get them each a little special keepsake of the night.
I like how soft they were and the many choices you have for charms or colors and types of hair ties. Not only that but they also made earrings, necklaces and rings to match. That way they really get incorporated into your style. My favorite was the heart charm. It was a great touch to my hair on Valentines Day.
So go and check them out on there website Fashion Flexy or keep up with them on Twitter and Facebook.
Disclosure: I received the Fashion Flexy hair ties Free to test out. All thoughts and opinions are my own. Your experience may vary from mine.
Tuesday, February 19, 2013
"Haute" Fashion with Flexy
Posted by Alvina Castro at 11:56 PM
2 comments:
What an amazing review,@theresmagicoutthere.blogspot.com! We are so thrilled & appreciate it. Great photos, too. What a great idea on tying off your braided pony w/ a FLEXY®! We <3 you & your blog.ReplyDelete
Awesome! You know, I have these raggedy hair ties that I also wear around my wrist. However ,they don't nearly look as pretty as the ones you have reviewed here. What a great idea!ReplyDelete
Thanks for this!
Thanks for visiting Theres Magic Out There. I would love to hear your thoughts. I will get back to you as soon as possible. It makes my day to see your comments and know someones reading my words. Thanks for visiting!
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Located in the heart of Orlando, Florida, next to the University of Central Florida, is Life Care Center of Orlando. Our facility offers a homelike atmosphere to our patients and residents, quickly making them a part of our family. All of the Orlando-area hospitals are within 30 minutes of our facility, making our nursing home a perfect choice for recovery.
Life Care Center of Orlando features inpatient and outpatient rehabilitation with 24-hour skilled nursing care. A specialized wound care program and state-of-the-art equipment, such as the AlterG® Anti-Gravity Treadmill®, Biodex Balance System™ SD and the VitalStim® therapy system, help patients and residents return to their maximum levels of independence possible.
Stop by for a tour today and see why Life Care Center of Orlando is a premier nursing home in the area.
We're excited to return for a fourth year as a Walk to End Alzheimer's National Team. We're motivated to continue working together in 2019, with the plan of building upon last year's success.
Battling Alzheimer's disease has been a priority of Life Care Centers of America since the opening of our first facility in 1970. It is our prayer that we can provide an environment that allows our patients with Alzheimer's and other types of dementia to be encouraged, appreciated and loved. Our hope is for a cure. A cure that can save the memories and dreams of millions of Americans who live with the disease. Like the Alzheimer's Association, we also dream of a world without Alzheimer's.
If you would like to learn more about our 2019 team or make a donation, visit: Life Care's Team Site.
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(407) 281-1070
(407) 281-1001Find Another Life Care Location


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Do you suffer from FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out)? Do you feel envious of all the races and running other people are doing, and wish that you could also join in all the time? Does this lead you to trying everything available just because you can?
This evening I ran the RunThrough UK Chase the Sun 5km race at Clapham Common, mostly because it was there and I now live nearby. It was a muggy evening and I set off too fast, then spent the next 4km feeling like I was falling apart but also just about managing to hold on. I finished as 2nd female, in a time of 20:56 – 12 seconds off my PB set last summer. For having raced a lot recently and not done much targeted speedwork in amongst all the taper/recovery, I'm pretty pleased with that result!
But it got me thinking: why do I run marathons? Why have I set myself this audacious goal of trying to run 26.2 marathons by age 26.2? My shorter-distance running is much better than my long-distance running, so why do I continue to strive towards 42.2km (and possibly beyond)?
If you plug my 5km time from today into a Race Time Predictor, it estimates that I should be able to run a 3:21 marathon – yet my PB is 3:41. I know that these predictors are hardly accurate, especially given the distance difference between 5km and 42.2km, but the results do seem to indicate that my marathon performances should be considerably better than they have been. So again: why do I focus on marathons when I can run much better over shorter distances?
It all comes back to FOMO. When I started running, it was just me and a Couch-to-5k app. There was nothing beyond that distance, and I was honestly so proud to be able to run for 30mins straight. I didn't run over 7km for 18 months after I first laced up. But then I started entering events and discovering that you could run further and further and further. Each new distance brought with it a new PB and a new world unlocked. I started to become part of a smaller and smaller group of people who have run a half-marathon, run a marathon, completed a triathlon – and that felt special.
Simultaneously, I started to surround yourself with the people who centre their lives around running, and all of this craziness became normal. Discussing upcoming races with friends is the go-to conversation topic, and hearing about all the magical events in all the magical places around the world makes me want to try them all for myself. The 26.2 marathon challenge is partially just an excuse to travel and to do these races: it was born out of FOMO.
Anyway; this is the conundrum that I run in. I love short, sharp 5km runs because they're over and done with very quickly (and you can go again the next day), but I also love the slow burn of a marathon. I love the multi-discipline of triathlon and I love trying to push the boundaries of my endurance to go further and further.
Eventually I know I will have to pick a focus and settle on targeting one race instead of trying to do them all. However, I also like throwing in a cheeky mid-week 5km race (a day after an interval session) just for the hell of it. I will continue to succumb to my FOMO for another while yet.


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PANDAS Syndrome
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Warrior Mom
July 9, 2015
Warrior Kid™ Goes To Summer Camp!
Ahhh Summertime….don't get me wrong, I really do love Summer, but holy shit WK's schedule changes are enough to drive anyone bat shit crazy. Most kids on the Spectrum who have an IEP in place usually are offered Summer school for 4 weeks. A few years ago I decided that WK deserved an entire Summer with no school and that I would send him to the YMCA at his former public school with a 1:1 shadow. Our YMCA offers an inclusion program that provides an Independent Facilitator (IF) to attend summer camp with your kid. In all honesty it is
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July 30, 2015
Warrior Kid™ Surfs thanks to Surfers Healing!
So a few years ago (about 5 to be exact) Warrior Kid had a playdate scheduled which for anyone that has a kid on the spectrum knows playdates are few and far between. I got a text from the friends' Mom the day before asking if we would be down to head to Malibu and attend a Surfers Healing event. Honestly I had no clue what Surfers Healing was about as my kid for the most part hated the ocean. He hates sand thanks to his sensory issues and is clueless on how dangerous the waves can be should you
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August 17, 2015
Paradise Island……sigh!
Oh Paradise Island…it is the make believe place I live where everything is perfect, amazing, cheery, sunny, kid not sick, kid doesn't have Autism……I'm skinny all the time and they serve endless Grey Goose and soda with lime! In real life when I am having a crappy day and am talking to my friends I always end my conversation with "how awesome is Paradise Island?" Let me assure you as I have said a few times on my blog before, I appreciate every challenge I have been faced with on this journey, however sometimes my kid just simply needs a
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September 7, 2015
Back to school aka crawling to the finish line!
Ahhh 3 of my favorite words: "back to school." Don't get me wrong, I love WK a lot. LIKE A LOT A LOT A LOT, but I am so incredibly happy Summer is over and he is back to school. All in all WK had a super fun Summer attending 2 different summer camps as well as attending surf camp twice. I am not going to lie, I feel like I am schlepping myself barely over the finish line. We have had such a tough year medically here that the constant driving from here to there, packing WK's Summer schedule,
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September 28, 2015
Well now that the kids are back in school…..lets address bullying
Everyone of us parents are most likely stoked that their kid (s) are back in school by now. I'm sure everyone is sleeping in, enjoying their coffee and magazine/book in the am, going to exercise, having lunch with friends, shopping……..OH WAIT LETS GET back to reality. Does anyone feel like it's amazing to spend the Summer with their kid (s) but you get ZERO accomplished that is on your todo list? I currently have a 3 page todo list typed in 12 font broken out by subject matter…and now you may wonder where Warrior Kid gets his OCD from? I
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November 11, 2015
Holland is equally as beautiful as Italy!
Many years ago shortly after WK was diagnosed with Autism I was at the time in permanent pity party mode. I was struggling BIG time accepting the fact that my kid had Autism. I was scared. I was pissed off like no other. Why him? Why me? Why us? Why? It was a few months into "dealing" with Autism and to be honest the way I was dealing with it was simply not to deal with it. I basically did nothing for one year except cry. Clearly that wasn't going to help WK in any productive way so I pulled
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January 22, 2016
Hiring An Autistic Person….Do NOT Be Afraid!
Hi Friends, First let me apologize for not posting since November as clearly the Holidays got the best of me, my time and my brain. I am back and ready to rock 2016 on SO many levels some of which I will not be able to share with you until the next few weeks, but rest assure, this Warrior Mom is going to change the world. Yes I said WORLD….or at least go down trying! I hope all of you had a wonderful holiday season. WK and I are wishing you all a very very very Happy New Year. Yes
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I am looking for some service that can sell gmail and yahoo aged emails in bulk. Please link me if you know any.
In bulk meaning 1000...
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Hi Fellows,
I am in Pakistan and I want to use yahoo Gemini. Can I use this platform in Pakistan?
I have some old yahoo accounts. not used. not sure they are working or not.
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If you're interested in adding an event to this calendar, please send information to our Communications Committee through this form.
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Debs Statue Rally
September 4, 2017 @ 3:00 pm - 6:00 pm UTC+0
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Eugene Debs was one of the most important figures in the history of American socialism, and the Pullman Strike was a crucial event in Chicago's labor history. This Labor Day, join CDSA as we show up in support of a statue commemorating Debs along with our comrades at the Friends of Pullman Debs!


text: I was brought onto this project as a Drupal Consultant just before it's release to help their internal team with a range of minor issues they were experiencing. There was a solid team of in house developers but Drupal was not their speciality. I was able to rattle though the various issues quickly and helped their team develop their Drupal skills and a greater understanding of some of the Nuances of Drupal 7.


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Lowdown: A former couple has another go.
From time to time we rent a film for its sheer star power, as was the case with It's Complicated: I consider Meryl Streep the best female actress around even if I don't like most of her films, and Alec Baldwin – her partner on the Blu-ray's cover photo – has had enough small comedy roles recently to make me want to watch more of him. Granted, upon a closer inspection of the Blu-ray at home I was rather dismayed to find It's Complicated was directed by The Holiday's Nancy Meyers, but by then it was too late.
While It's Complicated may boast complicated circumstances, it is still essentially a love triangle story delivered as a romantic comedy that is obviously heavily oriented towards the female viewer. The premises are uncovered a tad slowly but they're clear enough:
Between them, Streep and Baldwin have three kids, all of which have left home. Both parents are successful at their respective careers, and as becomes clearly evident by the stuff they're surrounding themselves with they have not known financial strife for many years. However, following many years of marriage our heroes have been divorced for ten years now, the result of Baldwin hitting things off with a much younger woman to whom he eventually got married. By now cracks appear in Baldwin's second marriage and the disadvantages of being married to a young woman with certain expectations are taking their toll, while Streep has obviously never recovered from her divorce and is still looking for a sense of direction.
Now comes the detonator part. After their long years of separation, Streep and Baldwyn meet at their youngest son's graduation ceremony. A few drinks later they find themselves in bed. In parallel, a certain spark is lit between Streep and the architect working on extending her home, an under utilized Steve Martin; Streep has to decide which is the right way for her while contending with the notion she is now an adulterer.
It's Complicated tries to tell us an important story about getting over your past and moving on with your life with the help of the people in your life and while helping the people in your life. However, it tells this important story without sending off any sparks; the story is told in a rather bland and unexciting manner despite the bottomless comedy talent in store here. Most problematic is the duration of the ordeal: there is simply no justification for this film to take two hours other than a successful attempt to waste our time and bore us.
Another problem of sorts with It's Complicated is its overly American nature. Most of the films we watch are made in the USA, but that is mostly testimony of the dominance of the American movie industry rather than an indicator of my preferences. At the same time, most films are perfectly watchable for non Americans by virtue of the fact they can take place anywhere, to one extent or another. That is not the case with It's Complicated: a lot of the cultural nuances it uses, like the graduation ceremony that is pivotal to the plot, are very American and too conspicuous for this non American to pass without attracting too much attention. I realize I am not the film's target market but the film's relative lack of universal appeal needs to be noted.
Best scene: The most interesting thing about It's Complicated are the similarities between Streep's character in this film and in Julie & Julia. In both cases she visited France where she learned to cook and in both cases she makes her living from her cooking expertise. It was fairly natural for me, then, to find the scene where she cooks chocolate croissant for Steve Martin's character as the film's most interesting scene, if only because it was interesting to see how these cookies (?) are made.
Technical assessment: This Blu-ray sports a good but still average picture. The sound is too mundane and a bit of a waste of the Blu-ray format's capabilities.
Overall: It's a nice story that should be told; the execution fails it, though, and places it at between 2 to 2.5 out of 5 stars.