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Children in Need 2019
KPI are proud to be supporting Children in Need again this year. On Friday 15th November children and staff are invited to attend school dressed in spotty clothing or Pudsey clothing/accessories or non-uniform. We're asking for a £1 donation on the day towards Children in Need.

subset: commoncrawl


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Who We Are:
Six Strings Acoustics Children's Program brings live music to classrooms for children with special needs.
January Stories
For many people the beginning of a new year brings thoughts of growth and change. It's like a clean canvas prepped and ready for paint. Six Strings had an amazing first half of this school year by tripling the number of students from last year. To us this means seeing more students exposed to the joy of experiencing live music and in essence more support for the arts in our schools.
A Very Special Thanks
As we continue moving forward we would like to take a moment to look back on 2018 and thank one of our board members, Misty Wilson, for the many hours she contributed to designing our website, editing our videos, helping with our Crowdrise Fund Raisers and publishing our monthly e-newsletter. Misty is an extremely talented and seasoned Video Editor and Motion Graphic Artist. For the past ten years she has worked for many of the top Post Production Companies in the Valley. Misty grew up in the small town of Bayfield, CO., where her parents both worked at the local school district and her father is a retired volunteer firefighter, so giving back to the community is in her blood.
It can be incredibly difficult as a young non-profit to keep all the good work going – Misty is such a positive force and one of the reasons we are thriving today. We are so lucky to have her as part of the Six Strings family.
Donor Of The Month
We would also like to thank our Donor of the Month, Gerald Pera for his most generous $1,000 donation in the month of December.
And thank you to all of our wonderful donors. Your generosity is the reason we are able to do what we do. In the near future we will be recognizing all of your names on our website.
Six Strings Chosen
And last, but not least every month Genuine Concepts hosts its Community Handle program. Six Strings has been chosen recipient for the month of May. The charitable program features a participating brewery which in the month of May will be Barrio Brewery. A specific beer is selected (TBD) and featured throughout the month. For each pint sold, $2.00 will be donated to Six Strings. The participating restaurants and bars include; The Vig (all five locations), Linger Longer Lounge, The Little Woody, The Womack, Cobra Arcade Bar, Ladera Taverna y Cocina and Deli Tavern. We are excited and proud to be chosen and a million thanks to the The Vig and Genuine Concepts for throwing our name in the hat.
Where we are going:
As we continue to grow we will soon be in need of more musicians to help us bring music into the schools. Anyone that is interested please contact Stuart@602-796-2056.
We also continue to build and expand our Board of Directors.
How You Can Help:
We are a 501(c)(3) non-profit organization and a part of the State of Arizona's Qualifying Charitable Giving Organization's dollar-for-dollar tax credit program. Our assigned qualifying code is: 20925.
100% of your donations go to support keeping live music in the classrooms when you help fund our Children's Program.
To make a donation or for more information please visit:
Please share our Newsletter with your friends and family!
Six Strings Acoustic
6705 E Paradise Lane, Scottsdale 85254


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Giving refurbished office IT a second Lease of Life
You have purchased a reusable cup for your morning latte, always print double sided and swapped to LED lights, but has your company considered the environmental and financial benefits of leasing refurbished office IT equipment?
E-waste is now the fastest-growing waste stream in the world. According to a new report launched at Davos 2019, there is so much of it, that it would weigh more than 125,000 Boeing 747 jumbo jets.
By 2020, it is estimated that there will be approximately 30 billion internet connected devices world-wide, however only 20% of these will be appropriately collected and recycled, resulting in the loss of valuable materials and having serious environmental impacts on our planet.
But in Scotland, companies like Re-Tek, an IT Security and Asset Management organisation based in East Kilbride, are looking for solutions to combat this world-wide problem.
In December 2018, Re-Tek UK Ltd was awarded funding support through Zero Waste Scotland's Resource Efficient Circular Economy Accelerator Programme to set up "Lease-Tek" – a scheme to enable organisations to lease high specification, refurbished Laptops and PCs.
The scheme is supported by Zero Waste Scotland to support a more circular economy by moving away from the traditional linear economy – where we make, use and dispose of items – to one in which we keep precious resources in use for as long as possible.
Lease-Tek procures used computer hardware, extensively tests, refurbishes and uploads Windows 10 Pro Operating System, then leases to organisations looking for a low-cost option that enhances environmental credentials. Refurbished equipment is not just given a second lease of life, but at the end of each lease period, the lessee is given the option to purchase at a reduced rate to further extend the lifecycle. Any products which cannot be re-leased will have functional parts harvested with remaining parts being responsibly recycled.
The move away from owning products has been slowly creeping into mainstream society, with companies such as AirBnB introducing the idea of 'leasing' spare space in people's homes, rather than building new hotels. Uber has transformed not only the way we access taxi journeys, but the way we also view car ownership and there are now options for borrowing everything from jeans to hammers.
However, the environmental benefits of leasing to Scotland's IT sector are relatively unknown, and Kevin Culligan, Director of Re-Tek believes that the scheme may be of particular interest to smaller and Third Sector organisations , where cash flow may be an issue, or for organisations that are keen to improve their environmental or social credentials. With typical lease periods of one year, though short term leases are available, organisations can keep up with new technological trends and can modify their technology as their business needs change, without tying up working capital. In addition, secure data destruction is undertaken by Re-Tek at the end of each lease thus eliminating the worry of disposing of data-bearing devices.
If you would like to find out more, visit the website here.
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Jay IDK's rise has shown to be far from a fluke. The ascension of his debut album Subtrap has been intriguing to witness, although Jay is nowhere near content with the recent success. He held the fans over with the release of his single "Trust Nobody" in April, leaving those to wonder what's to come from the DMV native in 2016. If you follow him on Snapchat, then you're aware that the guy practically lives in the studio, but recently, Jay IDK decided to go on a hiatus from social media — noting that his next tweet would be "epic." And, as it turns out, his next tweet would be pretty important. Alongside being a part of this year's Trillectro festival lineup, there's also new music to enjoy. Hey, you can't say the man didn't deliver.
A two-part release, Jay IDK's growth since Subtrap is evident. And when it comes to the release of his songs, there's sure to be a motive behind them. While "Mentality (A)" is dark and hard-hitting, "Somebody (B)" is melodic and jazzy — showcasing Jay's development as an artist over the past year. If you had a question as to whether Jay IDK is here to stay, I guess you now have your answer. So, with the Trillectro announcement and new singles, here's another question to ponder: Is there a new Jay IDK album on the way? We'll just have to wait and see.
For now, stream "Mentality" and "Somebody" above. You won't be disappointed.
Keep up with Jay IDK here.


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Van Halen's decision three years ago to dump lead singer David Lee Roth in favor of Sammy Hagar was sort of like tapping Mario Andretti to replace the Little Old Lady from Pasadena.
No more false starts; no more detours. Ever since, high-velocity rock 'n' roll has been where it's at for Van Halen. Their Saturday night concert at the San Diego Sports Arena will undoubtedly find thousands of local headbangers thinking to themselves something on the order of, "Better late than never."
Better late than never, indeed. When the Pasadena quartet first approached the starting line in 1978, it was as a heavy metal muscle car, fueled by the electrifying guitar work of Eddie Van Halen and souped up with the thunderous rhythms of drummer Alex Van Halen (Eddie's brother) and bassist Michael Anthony.
But with the sappy Roth in the driver's seat, the desired r.p.m. was never achieved. His cloying, pretentious singing style and unctuous, look-at-me-I'm-a-sex-god image soon forced Van Halen out of the heavy metal Grand Prix and into the Top 40 rat race.
There, the band eventually found its way into the victory circle with a string of cheesy hit singles, culminating with "Jump," which spent five weeks at No. 1 in early 1984. Roth was happy: He had become the darling of the teeny-bop set. The three other members of Van Halen, however, were not happy: they wanted to rock 'n' roll, not rock 'n' droll.
So in 1985, Roth got the axe, and Sammy Hagar--who in the early 1970s had sung lead with heavy metal band Montrose before embarking on a moderately successful solo career--was asked to take over.
Take over he did. Unlike Roth, Hagar is a screamer rather than a whiner. His tenacious vocal vitality spurred the rest of the band to play with more fervor, more gutsiness, than ever before.
In no time at all, Van Halen realized their original desire to win the heavy metal Grand Prix. They have consistently beaten such other hard-rock outfits as Ratt, Motley Crue, and Judas Priest, both in album sales and in rock-radio airplay.
Yet the Top 40 success they experienced with Roth has continued even without Roth: the group's first single with Hagar, 1986's "Why Can't This Be Love," went all the way to No. 3 on Billboard's "Hot 100."
It's nothing new when ambulance-chasing movie producers feed the public's morbid fascination with dead rock stars.
It seems that the method of death dictates the type of film. If the Grim Reaper appeared suddenly and unexpectedly, movie makers usually stick to digging up memories of the dearly departed. Buddy Holly, for example, was killed in a 1959 plane crash; nearly 20 years later, "The Buddy Holly Story" both chronicled and lionized the pioneering rocker's life, songs and legacy.
If the death was presaged by years of substance and body abuse, however, most of what gets dug up is dirt. The result: tasteless cinematic cheap shots like "Der Elvis" and "Superstar: The Karen Carpenter Story," both of which will be screened tonight at the Installation Gallery downtown.
"Der Elvis," by underground filmmaker Jon Moritsugu, is a degrading recounting of the final days of Elvis Presley, whose notorious pill-popping ultimately led to his death of heart failure in 1977. According to a press release, the flick depicts the King as "just another junkie who died on the toilet."
Just as bad is Todd Haynes' "Superstar: The Karen Carpenter Story," about the pop singer's long, and fatal, bout with anorexia. Using Barbie and Ken dolls to portray Karen, who died in 1983, and her piano-playing brother, Richard, Haynes purports to make "a powerful statement on the causes of anorexia," the release says, "and a condemnation of the early 1970s ideal of suburban American sitcom families promoted by the Nixon Administration."
Whatever happened to Rest in Peace?
LINER NOTES: Tom (Cat) Courtney has spent a lifetime singing the blues. Since an Oct. 6 stabbing left him with a stack of medical bills, he's been living the blues. But, at Friday night's benefit concert at Rio's in Loma Portal, Courtney, 59, will be getting some help from the blues--or, rather, a pair of Blues: host band Shades of Blue, and benefit organizer Buddy Blue.
Another benefit concert, this one for the Nicaraguan Hurricane Relief fund, will take place tonight at La Posta de Acapulco's Taco Shop in East San Diego. Performing will be Jamaican reggae trio Israel Vibration, along with Peter Broggs and Calabash.
Country songstress Tanya Tucker will be appearing Sunday night at the Bacchanal in Kearny Mesa. . . . The Jacks' new Christmas single, a remake of 1960s soulman Clarence Carter's "Backdoor Santa," will be officially unveiled Dec. 3 at a record-release party at Rio's. . . . Tickets go on sale Saturday for the Steve Miller Band's Dec. 14 concert at the California Theatre downtown.


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Sarah Colonna With DK
Friday, September 27th
Friday, September 27th
Comedienne Sarah Colonna hung out with DK for a bit to talk about some really uplifting conversation. They discussed dead cats, getting arrested, their favorite baseball team sucking, tragic news stories and how much she was dreading this interview. That last part is a lie, she and DK had a ton of fun and Sarah promised to set DK up with a hot Canadian athlete. Fingers crossed she delivers.


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Binali Yildrim
Pres. Rouhani:
Iran determined to deepen all-out relations with Turkey
TEHRAN, Dec. 08 (MNA) – President Hassan Rouhani said Sat. that the Islamic Republic of Iran is determined to deepen ties with Turkey as a friendly country in all fields of mutual interest.
US is upset over Iran-Turkey's friendly ties: Larijani
TEHRAN, Oct. 09 (MNA) – Iranian Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani said in a meeting with his Turkish counterpart Binali Yildirim that the US and some regional countries are upset at seeing the friendly and strategic ties between Tehran and Ankara.
Larijani congratulates Yıldırım on election as parl. speaker
TEHRAN, Jul. 13 (MNA) – Iranian Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani congratulated Binali Yıldırım on election as the first speaker of the Turkish Grand National Assembly.
Former PM Yıldırım elected as speaker of Turkey's parl.
TEHRAN, Jul. 13 (MNA) – Turkey's new parliament has elected former Prime Minister Binali Yıldırım as its speaker with the votes of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) and the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), Daily Sabah reported.
Turkey opens airspace to northern Iraq's Erbil
TEHRAN, Mar. 23 (MNA) –Turkish Prime Minister Binali Yildirim on Friday announced the lifting of a flight ban to northern Iraq's Erbil city.
Turkey, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Iran's FMs to talk 'Silk Road'
TEHRAN, Mar. 14 (MNA) – Turkish Prime Minister Binali Yıldırım on March 14 said the foreign ministers of Turkey, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Iran will meet in Baku to evaluate regional developments and discuss "regional cooperation."
Turkey lashes out at French President
TEHRAN, Jan. 31 (MNA) – Turkish Prime Minister Binali Yildirim has slammed the French President Emmanuel Macron, saying that he has a "flawed understanding" of Ankara's anti-terrorist campaign dubbed the 'Olive Branch.'
Turkish PM welcomes Lebanese PM in Ankara
TEHRAN, Jan. 31 (MNA) – Turkish Prime Minister Binali Yildirim on Wednesday welcomed his Lebanese counterpart with an official ceremony in the capital.
Turkish PM, Saudi King discuss Al-Quds behind closed doors
TEHRAN, Dec. 27 (MNA) –Turkish Prime Minister Binali Yildirim discussed with Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz on Wednesday the Palestinian struggle and its perception in Muslim countries, according to prime ministerial sources.
Turkish PM to Trump: Mind your step
TEHRAN, Dec. 21 (MNA) – Turkish Prime Minister Binali Yildirim on Thursday criticized US President Donald Trump's threat to cut aid to countries that vote in favor of a UN resolution denouncing his decision to recognize Al-Quds (Jerusalem) as Israeli regime's capital.
Larijani meets Turkish PM Yıldırım
TEHRAN, Nov. 22 (MNA) – Iran's top law-maker, Ali Larijani and Turkish PM Binali Yıldırım met on Wednesday in Istanbul of Turkey.
Iraqi PM to visit Turkey
TEHRAN, Oct. 24(MNA) – Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi will arrive on Oct. 25 in the capital Ankara, where he would meet his Turkish counterpart Binali Yildirim at Cankaya Palace, a prime ministry official said on Monday.
Iran, Turkey stress resolve for bolstering relations
TEHRAN, Oct. 20 (MNA) – A joint meeting between Iranian and Turkish delegations called for using all existing capacities to reinvigorate ties between the two countries.
Iran, Turkey sign two Memoranda of Understanding
TEHRAN, Oct. 19 (MNA) – Iran and Turkey signed two Memoranda of Understanding as part of deepening and developing interactions between the two countries.
Iran, Turkey support Iraq's territorial integrity: VP President
TEHRAN, Oct. 19 (MNA) – At a press conference with Turkish Prim Minister, Binali Yıldırım, Iranian First Vice President Eshaq JahangiJahangiri reiterated that Turkey and Iran support Iraq's territorial integrity.
Yildirim, Jahangiri discuss Syria, Iraq
TEHRAN, Oct. 19 (MNA) – Turkish Prime Minister Binali Yildirim met with Iranian First Vice President Eshaq Jahangiri in capital Ankara on Thursday.
Iran's veep calls Turkish PM to strongly support Baghdad
TEHRAN, Sep. 29 (MNA) – Iran's Vice-President Jahangiri and Turkish Premier Binali Yildrim discussed the latest developments in Iraq after the referendum held in Kurdish areas of Iraq, in a phone dialogue on Friday.
Yildirim, al-Abadi discuss KRG's illegitimate referendum
Turkey's Prime Minister Binali Yildirim spoke by phone with his Iraqi counterpart Haider al-Abadi discussed the recent illegitimate referendum on regional independence in northern Iraq.
Turkey not to Rule Out curbing oil transit from Iraqi Kurdistan
TEHRAN, Sep. 25 (MNA) – Turkish Prime Minister Binali Yildirim did not rule out the termination of oil transit from Iraqi Kurdistan regarding to the referendum on independence being held there.
Turkey, Iraq work together to prevent KRG referendum
TEHRAN, Sep. 16 (MNA) – Turkish Prime Minister Binali Yıldırım and his Iraqi counterpart Haider al-Abadi have agreed to work together to prevent a planned independence referendum in northern Iraq from taking place.
Turkey wants KRG's referendum "cancellation" not "postponement"
TEHRAN, Sep. 15 (MNA) – Hinting at possible sanctions on Iraqi Kurdistan Regional Government, Turkish authorities say Ankara wants "cancellation" of the referendum, not the "postponement."
Turkish PM:
Iraqi Kurdish independence referendum, grave mistake
TEHRAN, Sep. 06 (MNA) – Turkish Prime Minister Binali Yıldırım has reiterated Turkey's strong opposition against the Iraqi Kurdish region government's bid to hold an independence referendum late September, describing the move as a "grave mistake."
Binali Yıldırım:
Iraqi Kurdistan independence referendum not a casus belli
TEHRAN, Aug. 25 (MNA) – Turkish PM said the independence referendum of the Iraqi Kurdish Regional would not constitute a casus belli for Turkey.
Turkish PM reiterates call for safe zones in Syria, welcomes US missile strike
MOSCOW, Apr. 08 (MNA) – Turkish Prime Minister Binali Yildirim reiterated on Friday a call to establish safe zones in northern Syria and welcomed US missile strike on a Syrian airfield.
Iran ready to deploy humanitarian aids to Syria
TEHRAN, Dec. 16 (MNA) – Iranian First VP Es'hagh Jahangiri has urged immediate shipment of humanitarian aids to conflict zones in Syria and voiced Iran's readiness to do so.
Terror attack in Istanbul claims 29 lives
ISTANBUL, Dec. 11 (MNA) – At least 29 people, including 27 police officers, were martyred in two separate bomb attacks in the Besiktas district of Istanbul, the country's interior minister said early Sunday.


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Directors and officers liability Insurance (often called "D&O") is liability insurance payable to the directors and officers of a company, or to the organization(s) itself, as indemnification (reimbursement) for losses or advancement of defense costs in the event an insured suffers such a loss as a result of a legal action brought for alleged wrongful acts in their capacity as directors and officers.
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D&O Insurance Coverage
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Memory care endorsement proposed
Assisted living facilities in Nebraska could apply for a memory care endorsement under a bill heard Jan. 28 by the Health and Human Services Committee.
LB708, introduced by Lincoln Sen. Kate Bolz, would require the state Department of Health and Human Services to develop an endorsement for facilities that provide high quality care for individuals with cognitive impairment, dementia and Alzheimer's disease.
Qualifications for the endorsement would include staffing enhancements, staff training, dedicated programing and security requirements. The department also would be required to examine the Medicaid rate structure and make recommendations regarding a higher or supplemental reimbursement rate for facilities that qualify for the endorsement.
Bolz said the bill would benefit providers by allowing them to promote the endorsement to families seeking the best quality care for their loved ones. In addition, she said, an increased reimbursement rate for qualified assisted living facilities could incentivize facilities to care for high-need individuals suffering from Alzheimer's.
"Statistics show that the prevalence of this disease is increasing," she said, "and the number of people in Nebraska is expected to rise to over 40,000 by the year 2025."
Julie Kaminski, executive director of Leading Age Nebraska, testified in support of the bill. Most of the providers in the state that specialize in Alzheimer's care are located in Lincoln and Omaha, she said, and an enhanced reimbursement rate for Medicaid-eligible individuals could help bring that type of care to rural Nebraska.
"It would create memory care communities that have a secure environment that is staffed appropriately by individuals who really understand the subtle nuances of [the disease]," Kaminski said.
Christopher Kelly, associate professor of gerontology at the University of Nebraska at Omaha, also testified in support. Individuals who suffer from Alzheimer's and dementia benefit from aging in place, he said, and can suffer transfer trauma if required to move to nursing care facilities.
"The picture of the resident that is hopefully helped by this bill is that of the resident who is aging in place in our state's assisted living facilities," he said.
Kelly said the bill would allow facilities to seek the endorsement if they chose, but wouldn't result in greater regulation or red tape for those that do not.
"For those providers that do want to do this, it is providing not only the recognition but also the compensation that is commensurate with the care," he said.
No opposition testimony was offered and the committee took no immediate action on the bill.


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"History, real solemn history, I cannot be interested in.... I read it a little as a duty; but it tells me nothing that does not either vex or weary me. The quarrels of popes and kings, with wars and pestilences in every page; the men all so good for nothing, and hardly any women at all - it is very tiresome." Jane Austen spoken by Catherine Morland in 'Northanger Abbey'
DotCom Peak 2.0
Here we go again; two decades later, the same signal lights are flashing. The two charts above reflect the percentage of companies with negative earnings a year prior to IPO (via @JackPScott)
and U.S. Corporate Credit as a % of GDP (via @trevornoren).
When stock market equities deflate, household financing sentiments change.
...the stock market plays a significant role in influencing the growth and/or reduction in volatility and market risk.
Two Minutes to Midnight
It's been 10 years since the 2008-09 crash which is difficult to even remember now after 10 years of watching our housing prices more than double. But as Hilliard Macbeth points out in the chart above, when residential mortgage lending momentum approaches and dips into a negative metric, housing prices tumble and recession metrics begin to appear. In the two biggest FOMO markets, Vancouver and Toronto, prices indeed have been dropping in the 7-9% per year range after peaking 18-20 months ago respectively (Plunge-O-Meter).
As Hilliard further points out:
"There hasn't been a serious economic downturn in Canada since the 1990s; the last time that mortgage credit grew as slowly as now. Unfortunately bank lending is pro-cyclical, so lenders will tighten credit conditions just as real estate borrowing stops growing, which will make the downturn worse. This boom/bust cycle is inevitable as long as lenders focus on lending for real estate investment and speculation rather than more productive investments. To change that focus, a new set of rules and regulations that govern lending is needed." Quote included in Jason Kirby and MACLEAN's Most Important Charts to Watch in 2019
Well it could easily be one o'clock in the morning as weak hands cut their losses. Hat Tip to @Hutchyman
It's important to remember that our housing and credit boom is part of the global credit boom and it's fading. Hat Tip to @TaviCosta
Commodity Super Cycle
As I have been pointing out on my chart of TSX INDEXES for Energy, Real Estate, Financial Services, Gold and the Bank of Canada Commodities in $CAD, that...
...the Thompson Reuters CRB chart embedded in the chart shows that global commodities measured in USD has been dropping since 2008, although recently since September (2018), there has been a near term rally in commodities... BUT
...since Oct 3, 2018, the Thomson Reuters/CoreCommodity CRB Index has been coiling down (MarketWatch.com).
On my Twitter Feed from @hks55 came their chart suggesting that the commodity super cycle is poised for another leg down due to China's slowdown in credit creation that had spurred the commodity boom as Kyle Bass illustrates in this comparison between Chinese credit creation and their GDP (the link includes the 41 second video).
China's Slower Credit Growth
Underscores Worries Over Economy
Bloomberg, Aug 2018
Equities and Bonds
Why The Stock Market Is Heading For Disaster
In this presentation, Clarity Financial's economic analyst Jesse Colombo explains why the U.S. stock market is experiencing a dangerous bubble that is going to burst violently and cause serious damage to the underlying economy. Published on Oct 11, 2018
Hat tip to Jesse Colombo for the following 14 minute video that includes the following 20 long term charts:
- S&P 500 since 1997
- Percent equity gains since 2009
- Interest rates since 1997
- Real Fed Funds rate since 1990
- U.S. corp debt since 1980
- U.S. corp debt as a percent of GDP since 1980
- Buybacks and dividends paid vs S&P 500 value since 2000
- S&P 500 vs NYSE margin debt as percent of GDP since 1997
- Retail investor allocation to stocks vs cash since 1997
- CBOE volatility index (VIX) since 1997
- St Louis financial stress index since 1997
- BAML U.S. high yield spread since 1997
- Cyclically adjusted P/E ratio since 1980
- U.S. stock market capitalization to GDP ratio since 1971
- Tobins Q ratio since 1902
- U.S. net corp profits as a percent of GNP since 1947
- FAANG stocks vs S&P 500 since 2009
- Fed Funds rate and recessions since 1997
- Financial banking crises and recessions since 1977
- 10-2 year treasuries spread since 1976
Trump Is Completely Misguided On Interest Rates
If the Fed or other central bank voluntarily abandons further credit expansion (most commonly by raising interest rates), the credit and asset bubble will experience a deflationary bust. Deflationary episodes entail credit busts, falling consumer prices, bear markets in stocks and housing prices, and falling wages. If the central bank decides to never put an end to the credit expansion (for example, if the Fed never raised rates), however, the result would be a runaway credit and asset bubble that leads to a severe decrease in the value of the currency and high rates of inflation. The latter scenario is what would occur if President Trump got his way – hardly a desirable outcome for the economy. To summarize, the Fed is crazy – they're crazy for creating such a large bubble in the first place via loose monetary policy, but not for raising interest rates and normalizing their monetary policy. Jesse Colombo, Oct 17, 2018
Market Bear Hussman Says Stocks Could Lose $20 Trillion
To state the obvious, bull markets do not last forever, and inevitably are followed by bear markets. Likewise, economic expansions also must end at some point, followed by recessions, and recessions typically are accompanied by bear markets. John Hussman, Oct 15, 2018
The table above from current stock market bears is warning about a pending major stock market correction of 20%, 30%, 40%, 50% or 60% while past major corrections came in at 83% in 1929, 34% in 1987, 49% in 2000, and 57% in 2007.
Buyers outside of Canada in other housing bubble cities are thinning in number.
There's trouble ahead in the global housing market
Source: Business Insider July 2018
Toronto: Prices clearly peaked in early 2017. Prices are now down 3% vs last year. (Toronto SF Detached are down 17% from the peak. See the Sept 30, 2018 Plunge-O-Meter)
Syndey: Compared to last year, prices are now down 5% and supply has ballooned 22%.
Stockholm & Vancouver: Over a recent 6-month period, prices in the luxury property market fell 9% and 7.6%, respectively.
New York City: In Q1 2018, prices were down 8% YoY and sales were down 25%. NYC's luxury properties fared even worse.
San Francisco: After hitting a record price high in January, the city has seen a rare spring decline in prices, while rents across the SF Bay Area are starting to "cool off"
Bond King Gundlach predicts yields
much higher before this move ends
"If you look at the charts and you look at the way the market's behaving and you think about the trends that are underneath the bond market, it wouldn't be surprising at all to see the 30-year [yield] go to 4 percent before this move of the breakout above 3.25 percent is over," he said on "Halftime Report" Thursday. CNBC, Oct 11, 2018
While we wait for the September real estate sales, inventory and price data to be released next week, Chris Kimble today makes the observation that real estate proxies in the equity markets are behaving à la 2007.
Says Chris Kimble Sept 28, 2018:
"This 4-pack (chart above) compares the price action of today with the price action of the 2007 highs in the Dow Jones Home Construction Index, Bank Index & Real Estate.
Before the S&P peaked in 2007, Home Construction, Banks and Real Estate started creating a series of lower highs, diverging with the S&P.
Joe Friday Just The Facts Ma'am– Divergences similar to 2007 are taking place of late.
The long-term trend for each of these Stock indices reams up at this time! Stock market bulls hope that it's different this time and that these divergences are just noise."
I have been making a similar observation on my chart of Housing Price Momentum for Vancouver, Calgary, Toronto Single Family Detached Prices and the TSX Real Estate Index.
"In August 2018 Vancouver, Calgary and Toronto SFD price momentum hovered about the flat line while the TSX Real Estate Index cash buyer momentum ticked back up to the nearby highs."
Notice on my chart of August 2018 below, the July 2007 TSX Real Estate Index tested its highs yet on the ground in the physical world, the price momentum of Calgary Single Family Detached Prices plummeted, while Vancouver SFD prices coiled their way towards the eventual lows and while Toronto's SFD prices made their eventual way towards their 2008 lows to be followed by Vancouver and Calgary into their 2009 lows. Is it different this time? Stay tuned.
Hilliard MacBeth "When the Bubble Bursts"
Top 5 predictions for Canada's housing markets in 2018
BNN Interview September 28, 2018
Market Timing
As we wait for the April real estate data to be released next week, let's take another look at the month end U.S. S&P 500 via Lance Roberts at realinvestmentadvice.com
"We can afford to sit still..." Yes in the cash markets, sitting still is an option with risk management in place. But in real estate portfolios, if a correction or major negative price trend develops, everyone is involved unless sellers can successfully get ahead of the change in trend. But that requires acting before a wide acceptance of a new paradigm is acknowledged. By that time, buyers will have gone on strike as they wait for their opportunity to lead the market.
Lance argues in the chart above that the...
Lance argues in the chart above that the...
Intermediate-Term Picture Remains Bearish
On a intermediate-term basis, both of our weekly "sell signals" remain, and as shown below, the market once again failed at its overhead trend line last week as well as the downtrend resistance from the previous peaks. These failures keep downward pressure on the market as prices continue to follow the "path of least resistance."
The weekly chart also shows the rare "buy" and "sell" signals issued on a longer-term basis. Currently, as the market struggles with its current correction process, it is also very close to triggering a more important "sell signal" which could indicate a further correctionary process over the next several months.
Over the last 25-years, these sell signals have only been triggered 5-other times.
1. At the peak of the market prior to the "Asian Contagion"
2. Just prior to the peak of the market in 2000
3. At the peak of the market in 2007
4. At the peak of the market 2011 as QE-2 ended and the U.S.was facing the "debt ceiling debate."
5. Near the peak of the market from the collision of the end QE-3, the "taper tantrum" and "Brexit."
I can't find much of a record to suggest that a violent drop in stock market equities will necessarily drag real estate prices down, but a confluence of rising rates (Globe & Mail), stress testing (Global News), foreign buyer taxes (Financial Post), labour force displacement (Canadian Underwriter) and present historic real estate valuations (my 6 city chart) is a negative to price growth.
But I did find this chart here of the S&P 500 vs the Case Shiller U.S. Housing Index:
But I did find this chart here of the S&P 500 vs the Case Shiller U.S. Housing Index:
It is clear that some sort of correlation exists between stock values and real estate values. Stocks started their recent bull run in 2009. As you can see from the chart above, real estate values didn't start moving up steadily until 2012. So there is a lag here. But what is interesting is the correction in stock values in 2008 matched up with real estate values. In fact, real estate values started trending lower before the market crash. DoctorHousingBubble.com
In January 2018 the S&P 500, DOW and TSX peaked.
U.S. vs Canada Private Debt to GDP
Steve Keen "Can we avoid another financial crisis?"
The U.S. and the U.K. can but China, Australia, Canada, Belgium, Norway, and Sweden are next. (paraphrased)
Melt Up
As we wait for the first week of April to unfold and the March real estate data to come in, questions about the stock market's melt-up comes via @anilvohra69
Anil, a retired UBS rates options trader, quotes investment strategist Jeremy Grantham:
Bubbles have a blowoff phase lasting 21 months. Using a 5% threshold, the run from Feb 16 to Dec 17 was 22 months.
Hence the question "Have we seen the melt-up?" It certainly appears that way for Toronto Real Estate (as of February 2018 data) and the March data may add even more weight to the thesis.
Weak hands will offer up their assets first and in Canada we have a lot of household debt that eventually will face term renewals and the official stress test which is the greater of either the Bank of Canada's five-year benchmark rate, now 5.14%, or the rate offered by a lender plus another 2%.
If you are thinking of 'buying the dip' make sure your income is amortized over the length of your mortgage. In a melt down, the erosion of net worth will shift a lender's risk management exercise to more closely examine the strength and security of your net income.
As we know employment income growth is facing profound challenges.
If you are thinking of 'buying the dip' make sure your income is amortized over the length of your mortgage. In a melt down, the erosion of net worth will shift a lender's risk management exercise to more closely examine the strength and security of your net income.
As we know employment income growth is facing profound challenges.
Global Risks 2018
According to the IMF, over the past three decades 53% of countries have seen an increase in income inequality, with this trend particularly pronounced in advanced economies. Furthermore, today's economic strains are likely to sow the seeds for longer-term problems. High levels of personal debt, coupled with inadequate savings and pension provisions, are one reason to expect that frustrations may deepen in the years ahead. We highlight four concerns: (1) persistent inequality and unfairness, (2) domestic and international political tensions, (3) environmental dangers and (4) cyber vulnerabilities. We conclude by reflecting on the increased dangers of systemic breakdown. World Economic Forum
Strongest 'Bubble Burst'' Alarm Just Went Off
Jeremy Grantham 2018
Inversion Report
In December 2017, the 10yr less 2yr Canada Government bond spread narrowed to just 32 beeps away from inversion.
In April 2006 it was 33bps away and narrowing until it was fully inverted in May, June and July of 2007, and then central banks panicked and goosed the spread to widening again and by November 2007 it was 31bps again.
A year and half later the wide reached 230 beeps in May 2009, 2 months after the pit of gloom crash bottom.
We should start watching for further narrowing now especially with equity markets at their historical tops.
A year and half later the wide reached 230 beeps in May 2009, 2 months after the pit of gloom crash bottom.
We should start watching for further narrowing now especially with equity markets at their historical tops.
The Macro Model" chart below is from Crescat Capital with a few of my notations about Canadian debt levels which are at historical highs. NILS JENSON from Crescat Capital on January 27, 2018 made the observation that:
Market history is littered with downturns that followed new Republican presidents: Hoover (1929), Eisenhower (1953), Nixon (1969), Reagan (1981), and Bush (2001). The Trump bubble will likely prove to be the mother of all Republican presidential ebullience bubbles. Trade wars are not positive at all for the markets. They are what exacerbated the Great Depression and they should be one of the key triggers of the bursting of the China bubble.
Here's Who Could Lose the Most in a U.S.-China Trade War
Bloomberg, January 23, 2017
It's a big day in the Oil Markets as the price of crude slips below the sentiment price of US$50 the list is growing of oil majors who are withdrawing from further investment in Alberta.
Also yields in the bond markets are continuing their rising trend; ie: the cost to finance is rising.
- MAR 9/17 Lower oil prices have the potential to take down the stock market Market Watch
- MAR 9/17 Energy Credit Risk Soars As Crude Carnage Continues Zero Hedge
- MAR 9/17 U.S. Solar Market Has Record-Breaking Year, Total Market Poised to Triple in Next Five Years SEIA Org
- MAR 9/17 Canadian crude just got a lot more Canadian as another global giant bails on the oilsands Financial Post
- MAR 8/17 World Doubled Its Solar Power Capacity in 2016 Futurism
- FEB 26/17 With Shale Oil Production Like This, Who Needs Trump? Bloomberg
- FEB 22/17 Exxon will leave 3.6-billion barrels of tar sands oil in the ground Environmental Defense
- FEB 14/17 Don't Hold Your Breath For $70 Oil Prices Forbes
- JAN 15/17 Future of the oilsands: the good, the bad and the ugly CBC News
- DEC 14/16 Norwegian giant pulls out of Alberta's oilsands National Observer
- APR 21/16 Kurzweil predicts solar industry dominance in 12 years Electrek
The first bullet point above should concern the Canadian real estate markets. If a stock market correction gets sparked, the combination of rising interest rates and falling equity values should spook the real estate bull. Mortgage term renewals will go up in price and the bank of mom and dad will reconsider the risk of the rising cost of money. Parents, especially retirement aged or close to it, will not be too eager to take on more debt and purchasers of any age will have to consider timing as an investment criteria rather than buying anything with a front door for fear of missing out as is happening in Toronto. Timing is difficult, but lenders would become more insistent on basic risk assessment fundamentals such as the Income Approach to valuation instead of a rubber stamp and a drive-by appraisal.
Sentiment change is an investment killer and in Canada it would not take much to gather momentum as evidenced in my ongoing Federal Direct Investment plot which has been negative for almost 20 years, and which widened dramatically in 2015. Capital flows are net positive going out of Canada because investors want better returns which is why the oil majors are leaving Alberta for less regulatory and lower cost of production environments.
A March 2000 stock market correction event would lend credence to my February 22, 2017 post Need For Speed which posits that a housing correction could unfold in a much shorter time span than what Harry Dent has in mind especially with Trump-O-Nomics in the house.
Al Gore on the Solar Revolution - TED Talk Clip 1.50 min
2 solar home systems sold every minute in Bangladesh
Need for Speed
Dan Loney's February 19, 2017 blog post details an update from Harry Dent about Dent's view on a probable correction low for Vancouver housing prices. I have mashed up Dent's retracement projection with my Plunge-O-Meter fantasy.
Apparently Dent has increased his retracement target from a 43% to a 64% drop from the highs of last year.
A few months ago I spent three days with world renown economist Harry Dent. We had a conversation regarding the state of Vancouver area real estate. He stated that he expected the real estate market to correct 43% in Vancouver from it's high. This week his office sent me this chart which shows a projected crash of -64%. (FEB 19, 2017)
For a few years now a variety of analysts have been offering downside targets and depending on their bearish points of view, we have seen a rough correction range of anywhere from 10 to 50%. Obviously no one knows what the final number will be nor the duration of time it will take to unfold.
The classic Fibonacci retracements are 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8% and 100%.
But there are just too many interference inputs that could either reinforce or cancel any potential arc of change. The most basic influence I point to is the ability to turn debt into equity. If one is highly leveraged against a real estate holding, it's not a problem as long as there is sufficient cash flow to service the debt. But this can be a very fragile relationship because of the risk from unaccounted inputs that began their historical arcs decades ago (Technology, Emerging Markets, Governance, Demographics etc).
The classic Fibonacci retracements are 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8% and 100%.
But there are just too many interference inputs that could either reinforce or cancel any potential arc of change. The most basic influence I point to is the ability to turn debt into equity. If one is highly leveraged against a real estate holding, it's not a problem as long as there is sufficient cash flow to service the debt. But this can be a very fragile relationship because of the risk from unaccounted inputs that began their historical arcs decades ago (Technology, Emerging Markets, Governance, Demographics etc).
The Bank of Canada estimated that more than 20 percent of all insured mortgages were contracted by households that have loan-to-income ratios of more than 450 percent. Hilliard MacBeth for MACLEANS October 12, 2016
As I say, my Plunge-O-Meter is a fantasy model based simply on the current snapshot of how much of the correction has already occurred and if the rate of change continues at the same tempo.
Dent figures the Vancouver bubble began in 2003. I suggest it began in 2005. Dent projects another 14 years (2032) before we reach the price lows; the Plunge-O-Meter currently targets the fall of 2021, or 4.75 years from now. Could it happen? Maybe.
Dent figures the Vancouver bubble began in 2003. I suggest it began in 2005. Dent projects another 14 years (2032) before we reach the price lows; the Plunge-O-Meter currently targets the fall of 2021, or 4.75 years from now. Could it happen? Maybe.
On the price chart in the spring of 2005 there was a 4-6 month plateau period while buyers and sellers twitched like a herd. When the credit spreads narrowed and the yield curve began its journey towards inversion, the commodity stampede began. Plunge-O-Meter
We are on a cusp of change with regards to the yield curve to steepening and credit spreads to widening. (Bob Hoye JAN 27, 2017)
I suggest that there would probably need some very dramatic inputs to change the current sentiment of buyers in Vancouver who, although they have been thinning out according to sales volumes, are still willing to short cash at what appears to be the top of the market that has been in place since July 2016 and a clear divergence from the ebullience of today's Trumpian stock and bond markets.
I think the input drama that changes the Vancouver housing price regime has to come from these very liquid, fast moving stock and bond markets.
Whatever the sentiment shock is, that causes another extreme selloff (Wikipedia list of stock market crashes and bear markets), the need for speed to turn debt into equity will expose the weak hands very quickly, they need to act fast and get ahead of the competition.
Only deep pocketed knife jugglers will prevail until we approach the final lows and then new buyers will be rewarded without any technical market timing analysis. Long before that, we may see a rebirth of interest in the income approach fundamental.
I suggest that there would probably need some very dramatic inputs to change the current sentiment of buyers in Vancouver who, although they have been thinning out according to sales volumes, are still willing to short cash at what appears to be the top of the market that has been in place since July 2016 and a clear divergence from the ebullience of today's Trumpian stock and bond markets.
I think the input drama that changes the Vancouver housing price regime has to come from these very liquid, fast moving stock and bond markets.
Whatever the sentiment shock is, that causes another extreme selloff (Wikipedia list of stock market crashes and bear markets), the need for speed to turn debt into equity will expose the weak hands very quickly, they need to act fast and get ahead of the competition.
Only deep pocketed knife jugglers will prevail until we approach the final lows and then new buyers will be rewarded without any technical market timing analysis. Long before that, we may see a rebirth of interest in the income approach fundamental.
Charles Nenner Interview February 21, 2017
Nenner's historical work suggests the stock market rolls over September 2017 (get out by July) and bottoms in 2020-2021 which dovetails with the Plunge-O-Meter. This is not correlation but we do know from history that the animal spirits can change very suddenly.
Market Crash Recession
by the 5th of November, 2017
Yellen Will Raise Rates in March
FEB 15, 2017 BNN Interview of Jim Rickards
March 15, 2017 is the Date to Watch
Everything Will Grind to a Halt
David Stockman FEB 27, 2017
Moderated by Prof. Sebastian Edwards, a former chief economist of the World Bank; this discussion reveals the surprising insights of UCLA Anderson Forecast economists Prof. Ed Leamer and Prof. Jerry Nickelsburg, FEB 16, 2017
David Frum on Trump
"This is the most phoney baloney administration ever"
The election of Donald Trump could mean a gradual shift in the nature of the American political system. The much vaunted checks and balances might be unable to stop a slide into a new kind of authoritarianism. This is how David Frum, senior editor of The Atlantic and a former speech writer, imagines one of the possible futures that await the U.S. He joins The Agenda to talk about political implications under Donald Trump. Published on Youtube Feb 9, 2017
The Rolling Stones - Doom and Gloom
History, Charts & Curated Readings
"Progress, far from consisting in change, depends on retentiveness. When change is absolute there remains no being to improve and no direction is set for possible improvement; and when experience is not retained, as among savages, infancy is perpetual. Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it." George Santayana Vol. I, Reason in Common Sense
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Stephen Nover's Tues Totals Terminator - 63% Run!
Stephen Nover's Tues Totals Terminator - 63% Run!
Minnesota vs. Atlanta, 08/06/2019 19:00 EDT, Score: 85 - 69
Total: -105/+145½ Over
Sportsbook: Bookmaker
Result: Win
These teams have met twice this season. The totals were 152 on July 2 and 149 on July 12. This over/under is much lower. A big reason for this is the July 12 matchup was the lowest scoring game of the season in the WNBA with Atlanta winning, 60-53.
That was the only time during the past 14 games that Minnesota hasn't scored at least into the 70's. The Lynx won the first meeting between the teams, 85-68. That was a combined 153 points and went Over.
Atlanta is the lowest-scoring team in the league. However, Minnesota has surrendered an average of 83.5 points in its last four games discounting holding Indiana to 61 points.
The Dream have been dreadful defensively. They are yielding an average of 89 points in their past four games.
These teams are both riding big losing streaks. Scoring has gone up in the WNBA following the All-Star break. This is a low total to go Over and I see it happening with both teams playing looser having nothing to lose.
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UHL HockeyAdd to Cart Add to Lightbox Download
11 November 2006: Brad Thompson checks Yevgeny Lazarev against the glass and takes the puck.
The Elmira Jackals met the Bloomington PrairieThunder at the U.S. Cellular Coliseum in Bloomington Illinois.
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