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By now, we've grown accustomed to it. Nats GM Mike Rizzo acquires yet another player with a questionable injury past, hoping to find a new market inefficiency and getting a better player in the long term than how the rest of the league valued the player in the short term. This topic came up last week as the Nats seemingly severed ties with Matthew Purke and we immediately began talking about the wasted bonus money … three days later he re-signed a minor league deal, but he's still an integral part of this discussion.
This post attempts to go through all of Rizzo's injury-risk player acquisitions (draft, trade or FA), to see how he's doing in terms of these high risk acquisitions. I may have missed out on someone; please let me know if you think someone else merits discussion. I'm sure there's deep-draft picks worth discussing in prior drafts that our readers may remember; please pipe up in the comments section. In each section they're basically in reverse chronological order.
- Erick Fedde, 1st round pick in 2014 (18th overall), RHP from UNLV, $2.5M bonus (over-slot, ~10th pick money). I reviewed this pick after it happened and maintain the same stance I had in June; I thought Fedde was over paid and over drafted, but (in the Nats defense) the combination of the picks right before us (which included one Brandon Finnegan, who was on the Royals post-season roster) and right after us probably sealed Fedde's selection. Verdict: Obviously, it is far too early to tell how Fedde will turn out, so there is no judgement to pass here. Fedde had the Tommy John surgery in Mid May, so he won't even throw his first pro pitch until mid next season.
- Lucas Giolito, 1st round pick in 2012 (16th overall), RHP from Harvard-Westlake HS (CA), $2.9M bonus (well over-slot, equivalent to 7th overall pick slot). Giolito was rumored to be in the mix for 1-1 in 2012 before a "strain" in his pitching elbow caused him to miss most of his senior year. This "strain" turned out to really be a "partial tear," but the Nats saw value in getting a potential 1st overall talent mid-first round. Giolito rehabbed, threw a few innings, then had TJ surgery on 8/31/12. Since, Giolito's rehab went perfectly, throwing 40 innings in 2013 and another 100 in 2014. Despite his limited workload in 2014, he was named the Nats minor league pitcher of the year and has rocketed up prospect charts. He currently is the unquestioned #1 Nats minor league prospect and should feature as a top 10 prospect in all of baseball. Verdict: so far, so good. They say there's "no such thing as a pitching prospect," so the wheels could still come off the bus, but Giolito is trending up and the gamble is looking like it will pay off.
- Kevin Dicharry, 24th round pick in 2012, RHP from Texas. Dicharry was good early in his college career but missed most of his college career with shoulder issues. His pro debut was good enough: a 2.84 ERA in 25 GCL innings in 2012. He started 2013 in Short-A, got hit hard in 3 outings, and was abruptly released to my surprise. Verdict: failure … but it's kind of hard to say that a 24th round pick was a failure for not panning out, even if he was perfectly healthy.
- Robert Orlan, 30th round pick in 2012, RHP from UNC. Orlan suffered an elbow injury late in the 2012 college season and was immediately placed on the 60-day DL by the team after they drafted him. Baseball Prospectus does not have any injury/surgery history, so I do not know what, if any procedures he had done in 2012. Orlan was decent for Auburn in 2013 but struggled in 2014 and couldn't make the level jump to full-season ball. He's already been relegated to the bullpen and may not be long for the org. Verdict: not looking good … but again, hard to really pass any harsh judgement on a 30th round pick. The fact that he has even lasted two pro years makes him a success already.
- Anthony Rendon, 1st round pick in 2011 (6th overall), 3B from Rice. $6M bonus, well over-slot at the time. Rendon's dropping out of the top 2-3 picks was a huge draft-day shock; we're talking about a college player of the year who scouts had penciled in as the 2011 1-1 pick for nearly two years. But nagging ankle injuries in both his sophomore and junior year scared off the teams above Washington, who probably tripped over themselves running to the podium to take him. We know the rest of the story now; by mid 2013 he was a starter, and he posted a 6.5 bWAR season in 2014. Verdict: huge success so far.
- Matthew Purke, 3rd round pick in 2011, LHP from TCU. Given a $4.15M MLB contract. The impetus for this post. Purke was a 1st round pick out of high school, then went 16-0 in his freshman year of college, earning 2nd team all American honors. Shoulder bursitis cost him a ton of starts his sophomore year, but the Nats gambled on him anyway. A healthy Purke would have easily been a top 10 pick in 2011, so the Nats got a potential top 10 talent in the 3rd round. Of course, we know how this story goes from here: Purke could never get going in 2012 and had to have shoulder surgery. Then he throws 90 decent innings in 2013 … only to drop off a cliff in 2014 before having TJ surgery. Now he's out until at least June 2015. But, as we've seen this week, at least he's not on the 40-man roster any more. But more time remains to be seen as to whether Rizzo's $4M gamble can pay off in any capacity. Verdict: check back at the end of 2015, but not looking great.
- Sammy Solis, 2nd round pick in 2010. A herniated disc in his back cost him the entire 2009 season, but he roared back with a solid 2010 to profile as the 2nd round pick he ended up being.
- Nathan Karns, 12th round pick in 2009, RHP from Texas Tech. Karns was hurt when he got drafted, and didn't throw a pitch in 2009 or 2010. He had to have shoulder surgery in June of 2010. He finally made his pro debut in 2011, and by 2012 was the Nats minor league pitcher of the year after going 11-4 with a 2.17 ERA across low-A and high-A. By mid 2013 he was making his MLB debut to provide cover for injured starters. Karns was flipped to Tampa Bay in the Jose Lobaton deal (also bringing back two decent prospects in Felipe Rivero and Drew Vettleson) and spent most of 2014 in Durham (where he took a step back, posting a 9-9 record with a 5.08 ERA in 27 AAA starts). Verdict: success for the team, given what he helped acquire, even if he's struggling for Tampa Bay. (Thanks to commenter JohnC for reminding me to fully list his trade bounty).
(post-posting thanks to NationalsProspect's Luke Erickson, who provided the Orlan injury link and reminded me of Solis' back injury during college).
Trade Acquisitions
- Denard Span, acquired from Minnesota on 11/29/12 for Alex Meyer. Span missed a huge chunk of the 2011 season after suffering a pretty bad concussion. He missed a month in 2012 after injuring his shoulder diving for a ball. So there was some legitimate injury concerns following Span around, though I don't recall really discussing it at the time. I didn't necessarily like the trade when it happened, but that was more because I thought Bryce Harper could be our center fielder for the next decade. Nonetheless, after struggling for stretches, Span inarguably was worth every cent of his exercised option for 2015, and though this wasn't *that* big of an injury gamble, it has paid off. Verdict: Success.
- Ryan Mattheus was acquired on 7/31/09 from the Rockies for Joe Beimel, just two weeks after he underwent Tommy John surgery. By mid 2011 he was an effective middle reliever for the team, and contributed a 1.3 bWAR season in 2012 as a good 6th/7th inning right hander. In 2013 he broke his pitching hand in a fit of pique and basically never recovered; he lost his bullpen spot to Aaron Barrett in 2014 and, being out of options and not really having that great a season in AAA, was released last month. Verdict: Success, considering what we gave up and considering that he may still be with the organization had he not punched a wall. (Thanks to commenter Wally for reminding me of the Mattheus acquisition).
Free Agent Signings
- Dan Haren, 1yr $13M for the 2013 season. Haren had missed time in 2012 for a back issue, and had taken a huge uncharacteristic step backwards in performance from 2011. It was enough so that some thought (including me) the Nats were going to get a bounce-back season and a return to his #2 starter form. Uh, no. Haren at one point in the 2013 season was the *worst* starter statistically in the league (the team was just 4-11 in his first 15 starts, and he had a 6.15 ERA when he was summarily sent to the D/L with a soft tissue injury that even Haren himself didn't know he had). He bounced back enough in the 2nd half to save his statistical season, but the damage was done. Verdict: failure of a signing, but to be fair I don't believe Haren's issues in 2013 were lingering back issues.
- Chien-Ming Wang. Signed a combined 3 years of contracts worth $7M from 2010-2012. He had shoulder surgery in July of 2009. He missed the whole 2010 season, most of 2011 too. But he showed *just* enough in the tail end of 2011 to earn a $4M deal for 2012, where he promptly got hammered. To make matters worse, the guy whose rotation spot he took (Ross Detwiler) was usually the one coming in to relief him and pretty soon it was apparent the team had gone with the wrong horse. In the end, Wang gave the team 94 innings and 6 wins for his 3 guaranteed contracts. Verdict: well, a failure, but didn't hurt the team as they raced to 98 wins in 2012. Just cost money.
- Brad Lidge: he missed most of 2011, his final season in Philadelphia, and the Nats took him on a 1yr/$1M flier. After overcoming sports hernia surgery, Lidge gave up 12 hits and 11 walks in just 9 1/3 innings before being mercifully released, never to play again. Verdict: failure, but a good gamble.
- Christian Garcia was picked up as a MLFA in mid 2011 after the Yankees gave up on him following his third elbow surgery in 5 years. He was un-hittable in our minor league system in 2012 (he gave up just 31 hits in 52 minor league innings that year), was called up and was effective enough to be added to the 2012 post-season roster. Unfortunately, Garcia's injury luck did him no favors: he lost all of 2013 to a partial flexor tear in his arm, and never made it back in 2014, eventually being released in June of 2014. All that promise, just couldn't stay healthy. Verdict: can't possibly call a MLFA mid-season waiver claim a failure, no matter how little the team got out of him. Another good gamble.
Conclusion: actually Rizzo looks pretty good here. His draft pickups have mostly worked out; just Purke stands out as a possible loser. His only real injury-risk trade acquisition worked out. Haren and Wang were pretty high-visibility failures … but Lidge and Garcia were low-cost risks that had good upside if they worked out.
Did I miss anyone?


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Another early exit at Wimbledon for 2008 semifinalist Zheng Jie, who followed last year's early loss to Dani Hantuchova with a 4-6, 6-2, 2-6 performance against Petra Kvitova in the second round of the 2010 tournament. Ever since her run to the semis in Melbourne this year (save for an uptick at Warsaw, where she got to the final), Zheng's been sputtering. What gives?
ANTA scales back: Unlike all the crazy — dare we say gratuitous — use of fabric at this year's draw, the normally ruffled Zheng went for a simple look, even down to her puffed-sleeve warm-up.
Draw: Kvitova next plays Azarenka. Both are in the top half of the draw with Serena.
(images via Getty)

subset: commoncrawl


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The perfect teacher. |
The answer to the questions I began with is this. While individual speech acts in a classroom might be found to violate the right to work or learn in an environment free from harassment, speech codes do violate the right to free speech, as well as academic freedom. Furthermore, speech acts are only taken seriously as discrimination when perpetrated by a faculty member against a student. In 2008 a member of the Dartmouth faculty sued on the claim that her students had created a hostile environment, and was mocked by the national press as a result.
Faculty are, in fact, perceived as having an almost uniquely destructive power to harm their students intellectually by forcing their views on them. One way of thinking about this is what is called in labor law "captive audience doctrine," by which employees are forced to listen to political, religious or discriminatory speech. If said employees resist, or refuse to participate as part of an audience for such speech, and are threatened with reprisal as a result, the captive audience doctrine might be invoked. (Note: since the National Labor Relations Board is a mere shadow of its former self, actually winning a discrimination case or a grievance under captive audience doctrine is very difficult.)
Sound familiar to you? This is more or less the principle on which conservative groups like Students for Academic Freedom ("You can't get a good education if they're only telling you half the story") and Minding the Campus assert that so-called "liberal indoctrination" in the classroom establishes a hostile environment for conservative students. As the Student Bill of Rights published by SAF states,
Professors are hired to teach all students, not just students who share their political, religious and philosophical beliefs. It is essential therefore, that professors and lecturers not force their opinions about philosophy, politics and other contestable issues on students in the classroom and in all academic environments. This is a cardinal principle of academic freedom laid down by the American Association of University Professors.Contained in this statement, which mirrors what might appear to be a worthy standard for professional pedagogy, is language that points to a growing source of resentment among students: faculty often tell them things that don't support, and even contradict, the world view that they brought to college in the first place. What many teachers see as factual information, such students perceive as "opinions" that they must pretend to replicate, even if they have another "opinion." What faculty see as reasoned argument that is well supported in the literature, and requires equally reasoned and well-supported argument to rebut, students can perceive as "indoctrination."
In an academic environment professors are in a unique position of authority vis-à-vis their students. The use of academic incentives and disincentives to advance a partisan or sectarian view creates an environment of indoctrination which is unprofessional and contrary to the educational mission. It is a violation of students' academic freedom. The creation of closed, political fiefdoms in colleges, programs or departments, is the opposite of academic freedom, and does not deserve public subsidy or private educational support.
The two paragraphs I quoted above set the stage quite neatly for an application of captive audience doctrine to the classroom. In the second, the faculty member's "unique position of authority" is emphasized, a position that is buttressed by "academic incentives and disincentives" (grades) that can be used to reward students who accept indoctrination and punish those who don't.
But are students always a captive audience? Do faculty always hold a position of unique authority? Does the fact of grading itself mean that the faculty member's unique authority is always already abusive? And what are the implications of all of this for a liberal arts education -- which ought to be about debate, disagreement and transformation?
These may not be important questions for teachers of math and science (I am sure commenters will inform me on this point), but they are for those of us in the social sciences and humanities. They are particularly serious questions for teachers of feminism, race, colonialism, post-colonialism and queer studies, who are repeatedly harassed by students and conservative organizations, and risk having the institutional support for their work withdrawn, because their work challenges centrist and conservative (and perhaps even liberal) views about race, sex, gender and empire. However, a central issue for all social sciences and humanities scholars, regardless of field, is that our very work and identities are built around the idea of constructive disagreement as a path to knowledge. Useful disagreement depends on the notion that truth is not always an absolute value, and accepting the possibility that those things that are obvious are not always true. If students do not believe they are empowered to disagree with us, and if disagreement itself is viewed as destructive in a classroom context, in what context can students be transformed into scholarly thinkers? Conversely, if all student views -- no matter how factually incorrect of interpretively flawed -- have to be deferred to for fear of being charged with "indoctrination," under what conditions might a class acquire a body of knowledge about a subject, or a set of intellectual tools that constitute a recognized approach to that body of knowledge, at all?
Want some recommended reading? Try Robert I. Sutton, The No Asshole Rule: Building a Civilized Workplace and Surviving One That Isn't (2007). Reviewed here at Tenured Radical in July 2007.


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In the tragically short life of country legend Hank Williams Sr., there were many broken relationships, both personal and professional, that resulted from his self-destructive behavior. One such relationship was with the most important institution in his chosen field: The Grand Ole Opry. Shortly before it cost him his life, Hank's drinking cost him his membership in the Opry, just three years after his triumphant debut. That debut, however, remains one of the most famous in the history of the live country-music performance program broadcast weekly on WSN Nashville since 1925. Hank Williams took to the microphone for his Grand Ole Opry debut on June 11, 1949, electrifying a live audience at Ryman Auditorium that called Williams out for six encores and had to be implored not to call him out for more in order to allow the rest of the show to go on.
Hank Williams was only 25 years old when he was invited to appear for the first time on the Grand Ole Opry. As a young man growing up dirt poor in southern Alabama, he began supporting his family at the age of seven by shining shoes and selling peanuts, but by 14 at least, he was already performing as a professional musician. The life of a "professional musician" playing the blood-bucket honky-tonks of the Deep South bore little resemblance to the lifestyle that would later become available to him, but it was there, in country music's backwater proving grounds, that Hank Williams developed his heavily blues-influenced style and began writing his own music. Williams left music behind during WWII, but then he went to Nashville in 1946 hoping to sell some of his songs. Quickly signed to a publishing contract by one of Nashville's most prominent music publishers, Fred Rose, Williams soon had a recording contract with MGM and his first hit record with "Move It On Over" (1947).
Williams' heavy drinking had already earned him a reputation in the industry, however—a reputation that ruled out an invitation to appear on The Grand Ole Opry. It was the Opry's biggest competition, The Louisiana Hayride, that first exposed Williams to a wide radio audience, but when his 1949 record "Lovesick Blues" became a monumental popular hit, the powers that be in Nashville relented, and Williams made his Opry debut. His performance on this day in 1949, during which he performed six encores of "Lovesick Blues" for a wildly enthusiastic live audience, led to regular appearances over the next three years, until the Opry fired Williams in July 1952 over his heavy drinking. Six months later, Hank Williams died of alcohol-induced heart failure at the age of 29.


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How many ways can four letters abcd be arranged such that a always comes before b and c always comes before d?
Total number of ways abcd can be arranged? 4! Half of them a if before b, half b is before a. Similarly, in half, c is before d, and other half, d is before a.
But we can't divide 4! by 2 - because there are some in which b is before a AND d is before c. So what's the answer?


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'The Walking Dead' Season 4 Premiere Photos: Can Rick Manage "30 Days Without An Accident"?
'The Walking Dead' season 4 is nearly upon us, as the cycle of pain and horror starts anew for Rick Grimes and his group of survivors on October 13th premiere "30 Days Without An Accident." Before the big debut however, AMC has spilled out brand new photos from the premiere and beyond, as well as the first four episode descriptions of the season!
The October 13 premiere will pick up some months later to see Rick and his influx of Woodbury survivors continuing to make their home within the prison walls, though not before a new threat arises to complicate matters. Not to mention, searching for supplies becomes increasingly difficult, and may yet cost even more lives before the premiere comes to a close!
In addition to the slew of photos that highlight security at the prison weakening (plus a big win for Daryl and Carol shippers!), AMC released the first four episode descriptions of 'The Walking Dead's imminent fourth season:
Episode 4.01 - 30 Days Without an Accident
The group lives an ideal life at the prison, and strives to hold onto humanity.
Episode 4.02 - Infected
The group faces a new enemy; Rick and the others fight to protect their hard-won livelihood.
Episode 4.03 - Isolation
A group leaves the prison to search for supplies; the remaining members of the group deal with recent losses.
Episode 4.04 - Indifference
The supply mission faces hurdles; the situation at the prison worsens.
While we await the latest details from 'The Walking Dead' season 4, the next run of the AMC horror-drama will introduce 'The Wire' star Lawrence Gilliard, Jr. as comic character Bob Stookey, 'Twilight' vet Christian Serratos as Rosita Espinosa, and upgrade actors Chad Coleman, Sonequa Martin-Green and Emily Kinney to series regulars. David Morrissey's villainous Governor will also return in season 4 as a series regular, though beyond this season his involvement seems unlikely.
The wait is nearly over, so check out the first photos of 'The Walking Dead' season 4 premiere "30 Days Without an Accident," as well as follow-up "Infected" below, and give us your predictions for the new season in the comments!


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By Subhash K. Jha
Film: "Chennai Express", Cast: Shah Rukh Khan, Deepika Padukone, Director: Rohit Shetty, Rating: ***
Dammit! No out-takes!! Is this really a Rohit Shetty film? Every film of the "Gol Maal" director has so far ended with out-takes giving us entertaining glimpses from during the making of the film. Here those trademark Shetty out-takes are replaced by a Honey Singh track which celebrates Rajnikanth and the lungi.
The rest of the film resembles those typical sambar-and-sandalwood creations by K. Raghvendra Rao, and worse still, Raj Kanwar's "Dhai Akshar Prem Ke" where Aishwarya to escape her parental wrath at her elopement, introduces to her family a man she has just met as her soul-mate.
Of course, there are the flying cars exploding in the air to make sure we know that all said and drummed, this is a Rohit Shetty presentation.
Packaged with pickled precision, peppered with just the right doses of naughty jokes and precocious pranks that go well with Shah Rukh's 40-year-old brat's act, "Chennai Express" is the kind of non-toxic comic entertainer where the most damaging double-entendres you'd get is a Tamil word that sounds like Angelina Jolie's name.
Come again?
That brings me to another major hurdle in the heap of hilarity that Shetty builds so meticulously in the first-half.
The generous outflow of Tamil that seems initially engaging (more so, since Shah Rukh shares our non-comprehension of the rapidfire Tamilian cloudburst that accompanies Deepika's quicksilver character) begins to come in the way as the narration grows older and runs out of energy.
But then there is the sprightly Deepika as the runaway Tamilian girl who piles on to the North Indian mithaiwala stranger to escape marrying the boorish fiancee back home in her village in Tamil Nadu.
We've seen Kareena Kapoor do the chirpy runaway train traveller in "Jab We Met". Deepika brings a special filtered-coffee flavour to her chirpy character. Even that broad hammy accent grows on us.
Yes, we like! Here she is is the only Rohit Shetty team member (and I use the term 'team' since Shetty generously credits the direction to himself and his team) who seems to have a firm grip over her rudderless dithering character.
Deepika plays Meena Amma with flavourful flourish. She is specially delightful in three key sequences, two of them comic and the other unexpectedly sombre.
In the sequence where her character turns into a sleeping, kicking and convulsive zombie, she's unbelievably goofy. It's not just Shah Rukh who gets a kick out of that scene.
Would Rohit Shetty please do a full-fledged out-and-out comedy with Deepika? That, "Chennai Express" is not. It is a half-hearted but laugh-hearted effort that makes the fatal error of taking itself too seriously.
Towards the end when the utterly shammed climactic fight ensues, we even have a long speech by Shah Rukh on the social status of the girl child.
Not now, please!
As we squirm at the attempt to turn comedy into a serious business we look back at the rest of the film with some amount of warmth and affection.
Some of the long shots of the train winding through green acres is breathtaking. And Shah Rukh's first meeting with Deepika's father over a bridge over a fast-flowing river is shot with amazing brio.
There's a wonderfully-shot sequence where Shah Rukh has to carry Deepika to a temple over hundreds of steps. Deepika here goes from amusement and mockery to a sense of belonging and pride in her man's arms. It's a moment built with care and love.
But then, such tender affection really has no place in this comedy of cultural dispossession where the Punjabi boy Rahul gets embroiled in Tamil girl Meena's family affairs and comes out… well not quite wiser. But filled with self-mocking laughter.
Shah Rukh pokes a whole lot of good-natured fun at his now-aging lover-boy persona. There are tongue-in-cheek references to "Dilwale Dulhaniya Le Jayenge" and several other Shah Rukh Khan films and songs including the introductory South Indian lines from the "Jiya jale" song in "Dil Se".
All these self-tributes work better than what Puri Jagganath did with the Bachchan persona "Buddha… Hoga Tera Baap".
Rohit Shetty is more in command of his canvas here than in his last comedy "Bol Bachchan". But the self-deprecatory laughter is still not good enough. Somewhere you feel the one-line plot (okay, if not one then two-line plot) is stretched into an unwelcome second-half where nothing really happens. Even the humour tracks stops short beyond a point.
But there is some genuine steam and spark in the early part of "Chennai Express".
Towards the beginning of the train journey when Deepika and Shah Rukh play a kind of antakshari of Hindi film songs to put the goons off her trail, Deepika completely overshadows her kingly co-star, who should be okay with being upstaged by his female co-star.
After all he has given Deepika priority over his own name in the credit titles. And Deepika takes the lead very seriously. She has never looked better and never been funnier on screen without even trying too hard.
But then the plot and the situations let her down. The antakshari-speak that was amusing in the beginning recurs during a stale fight sequence in the second-half.
We are no longer laughing. Not when Shah Rukh's purported big chase sequences end in embarrassing deadends. Not when an item song with incoherent words and even more misguided logistics pops up like a joke whose punchline has gone missing.
Through all of this, Shah Rukh Khan braves it with a delicious sense of self-mockery bordering almost on a masochistic absence of heroic pride.
Yes, he likes it when the joke is on him. But that happens once too often here.
So it's finally here. The film that all Shah Rukh Khan fans (which covers half the hemisphere) has been waiting for. The good news first. "Chennai Express" is a pleasant and likable film in parts. The bad news is, it does nothing for Shah Rukh Khan's imdomitable star power except to tell us he can still play a 40-year Rahul without faltering.
That we already know.


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A particular question comes up for me when debating god's existence about why we homo sapiens would have so many cognitive biases built into our thinking if it is the case that god created us for the purposes of knowing god's existence and the truth (as many theists claim): Why would god design us with so many flaws hindering our ability to know the truth if our very purpose was to know the truth?
For example, why would god give us a confirmation bias that makes it difficult for us to notice contrary evidence? Can this all be swept under the rug with the ol' "God has morally sufficient reasons for this" explainer? If that sours the theist, one attempt to deny all this is by saying our cognitive biases are not hardwired. But, here's a paper demonstrating A Neural Network Framework for Cognitive Bias.
I leave you a select quote from it (emphasis mine).
The brain (like all neural networks) functions in a highly associative way. Correlation and coincidence detection are the basic operations of neural functioning, as manifested in, e.g., Hebb's rule (Hebb, 1949; Shatz, 1992), the 'Law of Effect' (Thorndike, 1927, 1933), Pavlovian conditioning (Pavlov, 2010), or autocorrelation (Reichardt, 1961). As a result, the brain automatically and subconsciously 'searches' for correlation, coherence, and (causal) connections: it is highly sensitive to consistent and invariant patterns..........Examples of heuristics and bias resulting from associative information processing are the control illusion (people tend to overestimate the degree to which they are in control (Langer, 1975; Matute et al., 2015), superstition (Skinner, 1948; Risen, 2015), spurious causality (seeing causality in unconnected correlations), the conjunction fallacy (Tversky and Kahneman, 1983), the representativeness heuristic (Tversky and Kahneman, 1981a), and the previously mentioned story bias......In line with the Hebb doctrine (Hebb, 1949), the neural network framework contributes to an explanation of these phenomena by the way (the weight of) connections between neurons are affected by covarying inputs. Synaptic strengths are typically altered by either the temporal firing pattern of the presynaptic neuron or by modulatory neurons (Marder and Thirumalai, 2002). Neurons that repeatedly or persistently fire together, change each other's excitability and synaptic connectivity (Destexhe and Marder, 2004). This basic principle, i.e., "cells that fire together, wire together" (Shatz, 1992), enables the continuous adaptation and construction of neural connections and associations based on simultaneous and covarying activations.
I'm not sure one can fully deny that cognitive bias has any neuro-biological basis at all.


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Batch operations benefit from process analytical technology
A successful application of batch analytics for online operation, resulting in a solution validated for a specialty chemicals batch process. The discussion illustrates basics of batch analytics operation, including access via a Web interface.
Process analytical technology (PAT), viewed broadly, includes chemical, physical, microbiological, statistical, and risk analysis conducted in an integrated manner used broadly in batch manufacturing. In particular, multivariate statistical modeling (data analytics) serves as an excellent tool designed for batch process analysis. The online implementation of analytic technology comprises fault detection and end of batch quality prediction. The approach offers significant economic benefits; however, implementations face many challenges and so far few have documented online applications.
For batch analytics online to be successful, the follow key areas should be addressed:
- Process holdups: Operator- and event-initiated processing halts and restarts. Sometimes halts and restarts are part of the batch process design, such as adding a special ingredient. Other times progression of a batch may be delayed by limitations imposed by the need to wait for common equipment to become available. Holdups data must be accounted for during analytic model development and in the online application of analytics.
- Access to lab data: Due to the nature of batch processing, online measurement of quality parameters may not be technically feasible or economically justified. Thus, it is common that at various points in the batch a grab sample is taken and analyzed in the lab. To implement online analytics, it is necessary that lab results be available for model development and validation.
- Variations in feedstock: The charge to a batch may come from storage tanks that are periodically refilled by upstream processes, or by truck or rail shipment from outside suppliers. Changes in incoming raw material properties directly impact batch operation and quality parameters and should be available for online analytic tools.
- Varying operating conditions: The processing conditions may vary significantly with each batch operation. The batch process should be split on operations performed in similar conditions (stages), and an analytic model should be developed for every stage.
- Concurrent batches: Multiple batches of the same product may be executing at various stages of completion.
- Assembly and organization of the data: One of the limiting items which often prevents detailed analysis of batch processes is the inability to access, correctly sequence, and organize a data set of all necessary data. This requirement must be fulfilled to analyze the process and to move the results of that analysis online.
- Data alignment from different batches: Batch durations are not equal. For developing an analytics model, data from the various batches should be aligned, forming data with an equal number of data samples for every batch.
An effective solution to meet batch challenges can be found by applying current developments and research in batch modeling, process control systems, and Web technology, and then by considering an implementation strategy based on close cooperation of analytics system developers and end users.
Basics of analytics
Analytics may be effectively built on multivariate statistical methods which have been known from the beginning of the previous century. Personal computers made practical use of those methods possible in many applications, and in particular, batch analysis. Several accompanied techniques, primary for data unfolding and data alignment, have also been developed for batch analysis implementation. A summary of batch analytics techniques is presented below.
Data alignment
Time required to complete one or more operations associated with a batch may vary because of process holdups or processing conditions. (See Figure 1.) However, the batch data used in model development must be somehow aligned in order to facilitate data analysis.
To achieve uniform batch length, the data at a certain time in the batch could be simply chopped off, compressed, or expanded in some fashion to achieve the same number of time increments. Better results may be achieved by applying a newer technique known as dynamic time warping (DTW). DTW aligns batch data with the reference trajectories by minimizing total distance between them. The batch with median time duration can be used as an initial DTW reference batch. The DTW principle for aligning one trajectory is illustrated in Figure 2. To satisfy the minimal distance between trajectories, two or more points on the red trajectory (A) can be transformed into one point on the green aligned trajectory, or one point is stretched on many points (B).
Data unfolding
The aligned model data file is a three-dimensional array: I batches, J variables, and K scan periods. (See Figure 3.) Prior to the model development, the data file is unfolded into two dimensions, IKxJ. Hybrid unfolding is a recent improvement over commonly used batch-wise and variable-wise unfolding. With hybrid unfolding, mean values and variances are calculated for every time period for batch-wise unfolded data. (See Figure 3, arrow A.) The data is then rearranged as variable-wise unfolded (see Figure 3, arrow B.); therefore, there is no need to assume arbitrary trajectories from the current time until the end of the stage, as with the original batch-wise unfolding.
Multivariate statistical methods
Processes with correlated relationships require use of multivariate statistical techniques. Figure 4 shows that while trends for both correlated parameters are within their respective process control limits, the process operation is still deemed faulty (i.e., the relationship between parameters is broken) for the identified observation, and the fault is detected only by the multivariate statistics.
A primary multivariate statistical method often used is principal component analysis (PCA). At the heart of PCA technology is the concept that a time-based profile for measurement values may be established using a variety of batches that produced good quality product and had no abnormal processing upsets. The model may be used to develop a better understanding of how multivariate parameters relate to one another and how all factors can impact batch-to-batch costs.
The model structure takes into account that many of the measurements used in the batch operation are related to each other and respond in a similar manner to a process input change. In other words, they are collinear. For such conditions, all process variations can be modeled by the primary principal components. (Matrix T in Figure 3.) The PCA model may be used to identify process and measurement faults that may impact product quality.
The modeled part of the process variation is also captured by the Hoteling's T2 statistic. Uncorrelated variations not included into the principal components are not modeled. They are presented by what is known as the Q statistic. In this way all process variations can be reflected by two indicators. (See Figure 5.) Two bar plots at the bottom display show how particular process parameters contribute to the process variations. For diagnosing a selected parameter, operators may look at a parameter trend plotted along with a reference trend and the acceptable parameter band of variation. (See Figure 6.)
Through the use of these two statistics, it is possible to determine fault conditions in the batch sooner and thus allow investigations and corrections to be made to counter the impact of the fault.
Projection to latent structures (PLS, also known as partial least squares), is applied to analyze the impact of processing conditions on final-product quality, and can provide operators with continuous predictions of end-of-batch quality parameters. In some batches, where the objective is to classify the operation results into discrete categories (e.g., fault category, grades, etc.), combining another multivariate statistical method known as discriminate analysis (PLS-DA) would be used in conjunction with PCA and PLS.
Online analytics allows for the operator to monitor a batch operation simply by using a plot of the PCA statistics and the PLS estimated end of batch quality, as illustrated in Figure 6.
Once PCA and PLS models have been developed using data from normal batches, their performance in detecting faults and predicting variations in end-of-batch quality parameters may be tested by replaying data collected from abnormal batches.
Analytics in specialty chemicals batch application
An architecture was developed to apply these advanced statistical analysis methods outlined in this paper for batch processing in such a way that it integrates with both an enterprise resource planning system as well as a process control system. (See Figure 8.) This application in the specialty chemical industry contains many of the batch components commonly found in many chemical processing companies. However, as with any engineering endeavor, the success of the project depends greatly on the steps taken in applying this analytic technology. To address this application, a multidiscipline team was formed that includes the toolset provider, as well as expertise from Lubrizol's plant operations, statistics, MIS/IT, and engineering staff.
The major steps of a successful project may be summarized as follows.
- Collecting process information: When applying data analytics to a batch process, it is important to have a good understanding of the process, the products produced, and the organization of the batch control. Thus, a multidiscipline team should be created for a project like this. A list of the process measurements, lab analysis, and truck data for raw material shipment should be created, forming what may be called an input-process-output data matrix.
- Instrumentation and control survey: A basic assumption in the analytics application to a batch process is that the process operation is repeatable. An instrumentation and control survey, and good loop tuning are important factors in satisfying this requirement.
- Integration of lab data: Key quality parameters associated with the batch operation at the plant should be obtained for lab analysis by obtaining grab samples. The lab analysis results should then be entered into the data system. The properties analysis for raw material shipments should also be entered into the data system. To allow this data to be used in online analytics, an interface is needed between the ERP system and the process control system.
- Historian collection: Modeling and test data should be in an uncompressed format.
- Model development: The tools for model development must allow for easy selection of data from the data historian and to organize a subset of the data associated with parameters used for the model development. The model must be validated on conformance with several model quality indexes and additionally by using fast playback of test data.
- Training: Operator and plant engineering training is a vital part of commissioning any analytics application.
- Evaluation: User feedback and data collected on improvements in process operation are valuable to evaluate the analytics application.
Basic findings from using this form of process analytics approach have been positive and include:
- The engagement of operators and engineers who provide positive feedback on the analytics used and accept this new tool for fault detection and quality prediction;
- The accumulation of learning as use of the installation continues after the preliminary field trials;
- The ability to exploit new functionality that can detect and diagnose process, instrumentation, and operational problems;
- The importance of using stages in analytic modeling;
- The advantages of Web-based online user interface; and
- The usefulness of Web-based process simulation for operator training.
Using multivariate process analytics motivates people to think in entirely new ways and address process improvement and operations with a better understanding of the process. It allows operational personnel to identify and make better informed corrections before the end-of-batch, and plays a major role in ensuring that batches repeatedly hit predefined end-of-batch targets. Additionally, the engineers and other operations personnel gain further insight into the relationships between process variables and their importance on product quality.
Robert Wojewodka is process improvement team leader and statistician for the Lubrizol Corporation. Terry Blevins is principal technologist, future architecture, and Willy Wojsznis is senior technologist for Emerson Process Management.
For more information, visit:
- www.emersonprocess.com
References and additional reading:
- Robert L. Mason and John C. Young. Multivariate Statistical Process Control with Industrial Applications. Statistics and applied probability. ASA-SIAM, Philadelphia, 2002.
- Boudreau M. A. and McMillan G. K., New Directions in Bioprocess Modeling and Control. ISA, Research Triangle Park, NC, 2006.
- Kassidas, A., MacGregor J. F., Taylor, P. A., Synchronization of Batch Trajectories Using Dynamic Time Warping, AIChE Journal, 44, April 1998, No. 4.
- Lee, J. M., Yoo, C. K., Lee, I. B., Enhanced process monitoring of fed-batch penicillin cultivation using time-varying and multivariate statistical analysis, Journal of Biotechnology, 110, 2004, 119-136.
- Blevins T. and Beall J. Monitoring and Control Tools for Implementing PAT, Pharmaceutical Technology, March 2007 (supplement).
- Robert Wojewodka, Terry Blevins, and Willy Wojsznis, Batch Process Analytics, 2010 Emerson Global Users Exchange, San Antonio, TX, September 2010, audio recording: https://www.modelingandcontrol.com/2010/11/batch_process_analytics_-_update.html
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On paper, Samsung's new Galaxy Note 8.0 tablet is a perfectly fine piece of hardware.
It runs Android 4.1, has a 1.6 GHz quad-core CPU, 2 gigabytes of RAM, and an 8-inch, 1280 x 800 display that you can control with Samsung's S-Pen stylus. But on the international version of the device, there's something quite strange lurking near the top.
Yes, it's an earpiece. Yes, it's meant for you to make calls. Yes, Samsung expects you to hold an 8-inch tablet up to your face.
Samsung expects you to hold an 8-inch tablet up to your face.
The decision to imbue an 8-inch tablet with a phone very much seems like a reaction to the success of Samsung's Galaxy Note phones, which checked in at 5.3 and 5.5-inches, opening up some of the functionality of tablets. (Ugh, phablets).
I joked before about the day when we'd see a 7-inch phone. Turns out we got an 8-inch one sooner than we thought. But it is worth mentioning that it's undecided if a phone-enabled version of the Galaxy Note 8.0 will see the light of day in the U.S.
The device itself is suitably thin and light (more or less comparable to the iPad mini, it's closest known competition), and is responsive enough for most tasks. The stylus works pretty well, introducing a new feature that lets you activate preview panes of apps such as email and Flipboard, without ever touching the the screen (instead, you hover above the area you want to preview).
Related: Samsung overtakes Apple in 'smart connected devices'
But aside from the stylus, it also has a couple of tricks the iPad Mini does not. For starters, It has an IR remote which lets you enter the codes for most television sets and control your TV with your tablet, much like you would with any other remote. But sweetening the deal is the use of the media guide software from Peel Technologies, allowing you to seek out and directly jump to specific shows and movies without resorting to the channel up/down buttons.
It also supports a dual-window mode, where you can run two apps side by side, and without the loss of functionality. For now it only works with a handful of optimized apps, but includes a calendar app, a note-taking app, Chrome, Gmail, YouTube and more (adding up to more than 20 in all).
And while it's expected to arrive sometime in the next few months, there was not so much as a whisper about price. Judging from the year-old guts inside the Galaxy Note 8.0, it's possible Samsung made the necessary moves to offer it at a mainstream price point. If it falls anywhere under the $330 price tag of Apple's iPad Mini, it might just have what it takes to steal some of Cupertino's thunder.
But why...why does it have to have a built-in phone?


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The devil is in the details.
Maybe I'd better explain.
As it goes, the hit History Channel show, "The Bible," was recently called out because the actor playing the part of Satan, Moroccan-born Mohamen Mehdi Ouazanni, looks eerily similar to President Obama.
I don't think Obama is the devil, but he surely has one characteristic that old Beelzebub is known for: a silver tongue.
See, many people think that if they met the devil in person, he'd be a foul-smelling, abrupt and frightening creature. The fact is, he'd appear to be the exact opposite.
He'd wear a Brooks Brothers suit and display a charming smile. He'd be affable and compassionate, and charm the socks off the unwitting.
He'd certainly NOT have our interest at heart – he'd only want to use us to achieve his own selfish goals – and many of us would probably never know it. Many would think he is our savior.
There's no doubt Obama makes a lot of people feel this way – even though he has delivered the opposite of his many grandiose promises.
I vaguely recall talk of "hope and change" – how he'd magically cross the political aisle and bring the parties and the country together – yet we are more divided now than at any time in my lifetime and Obama has been the most partisan president in modern history.
Is not our division the result, in no small part, of the class warfare he waged to win a second term?
I vaguely recall him being elected in 2008 to address our financial crisis and get the economy going again. Instead, he gave us a massive new entitlement program and spent billions of borrowed stimulus dollars – yet unemployment is still high and economic growth remains incredibly stagnant.
Despite our massive debt, deficits and future entitlement obligations, our sweet talker in chief now assures the masses that America no longer has a spending problem. He says we have already cut spending plenty; what we need to do is raise taxes to get things cooking.
Sure, he overplayed his hand on the sequestration cuts – which cut about $84 billion from our massive $4 trillion in annual spending. The gloom and doom he prophesied aren't coming to pass, and his poll numbers have suffered some.
But the fact is, Obama has been successful, over and over, at saying one thing and doing another and paying a very small political price for the difference.
Gosh, I feel sorry for Republicans. Sure, they have their failings – and were careless and reckless in spending the last time they controlled Congress and the presidency – but they are now on the regrettable side of calling for sensible reductions in government growth and for sensible reforms to taxes and entitlement programs.
What we need is a giant bipartisan effort to address those very things, led by our president, but Obama wants nothing to do with it.
Republicans are in the regrettable position of, say, having to tell an obese fellow he needs to lose weight or he'll get diabetes, or hardened arteries, and may even suffer a heart attack five or six years down the line – while Obama promises the fellow a buffet dinner.
As I said, the guy is a maestro at saying one thing and doing another. Most in the media continue to NOT hold him to account for that – or for the many ways he is NOT leading us on the many problems we must address (spending, deficit, entitlements, tax reform).
Obama is not the devil, but, boy, does he have the silver tongue.


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Is it wrong to just have sex with my ex when I really want a relationship?
Lena replies:My ex boyfriend and I are really close and sometimes make out with each other when we are alone. He used to really like me still and I didn't feel the same way and now it has reversed and I really like him again but he doesn't want a relationship. We have talked about just being friends and doing stuff but is this wrong? Plus I really want to have sex with him, he's not a virgin and I am, do you think it is a bad idea if we're not together? I know we will always be really close and share everything with each other but should I wait until we are together one day? I really love him and maybe if we do it his old feelings will light up again. Please give me honest advice on what I should do. Cheers.
Making out with an ex whom you still have feelings for isn't really an issue of being right or wrong morally: I'd say it's more about being honest with yourself and doing what's right for you. Right now this arrangement doesn't seem to be a good match for your needs and wants.
Casual sex generally works out for people who can separate sex and love, and who can be honest with themselves and their partner/s about what they want and need in a relationship, be it platonic ("just friends" but not "friends with benefits"), sexual, romantic, sexual-romantic, and beyond. Recent exes usually don't make for the best casual sex partners, especially when both parties aren't feeling the same way. I see you're accepting what you can get while yearning for more: you state you have lingering feelings for your ex, that you're hoping for a romantic-sexual relationship again but he's said he doesn't want one. You really have to take his word at face value here: if he says he doesn't want the same type of relationship you do, then he probably means it.
I think adding sex to the mix is going to just make it harder and more hurtful for you in this situation. It's really important to be honest with yourself and your partner about your intentions. Good partnered sex is about sharing your sexualities "just because" you want to: there shouldn't be strings attached or secret intentions. Sure, sex can affect people in unexpected ways, but it shouldn't be seen as a path to rekindle a relationship, and thinking so is probably going to result in disappointment. Furthermore, if he knows you really want a romantic-sexual relationship again but are settling for these hook-ups, then he really isn't being a caring partner; even in casual relationships, everyone should be looking out for each others' best interests and not exploiting them for their own gain. So, while it's certainly not wrong for you to *want* to have sex with him, it doesn't sound like the right context for the type of experience you're looking for.
I'd also recommend you take a break from making out with him, at least for the time being, until you've given yourself the time and space to get over your ex. It can take awhile to "move on" after a relationship: you two could still be friends but for now I'd focus on other friendships, your classes, as well as favorite hobbies and interests, because I think it will make you happier in the long-run. After you've gotten some distance and a chance to reflect on this experience as well as think about what you want and don't want in a relationship, you can revisit things.
I am now going to give you an annotated list of articles from the site, giving you some background on each and explaining why I recommend checking them out.
Related Scarleteen Articles
Ready or Not? The Scarleteen Sex Readiness Checklist: This is Scarleteen's awesome, all-inclusive checklist and a great tool for determining if a sexual relationship is right for you... right now.
10 of the Best Things You Can Do for Your Sexual Self (at Any Age): Just because you aren't having partnered sex doesn't mean you can't have a fulfilling sexual life!
Safe, Sound & Sexy: A Safer Sex How-To: Even if you're not having vaginal intercourse, you might already be sexually active in other ways, so it's good to read up on and practice safer sex.
Safer Sex...for Your Heart: Speaking of safer sex, it's important to protect your body AND your heart, and article gives some pointers.
Supermodel: Creating & Nurturing Your Own Best Relationship Models: This piece talks about the different types of relationships out there, and shares some suggestions for working out what works for you.
Sexpert Advice Q&A on Casual Sex: You can read up on other people's experiences with casual sex and see what the Sexperts recommend to them.


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A while back I wrote about the need of parents of "only
children" with Down syndrome to have the support of others like us, to have the
understanding by others not in our
situation of the uniqueness of our position, the specific challenges we and our
children face that couldn't be understood by the vast majority of the population, in the Down syndrome community or otherwise. Sibling sessions are never uncommon at Down
syndrome conferences. Parents of a child
with Down syndrome who also have at least one "neurotypical" child just can't
understand us, assume that things for us are exactly the same as they are for
them. We just can't fully allow ourselves to relate to them, either, or,
perhaps, it's just a manifestation of the dreaded "J-word."
(I'll let that word lie dormant for now, though, and move on...)
Seriously, for about 8 years, I thought I was just about the
only one.
The only one who had ever walked this particular path.
The only one who was terrified of the future for reasons so
different from parents of others.
The only one who had absolutely no idea who would be able to look after my child when I'm no longer
alive on this earth.
The only one who felt the cold sliver of fear and pain of
sadness in my heart that I would likely never become a grandparent.
The only one who wanted to send my child to school every day
all day all year round because it was the only place she could benefit from
interacting with other children.
It's hard.
feeling alone is almost even
I mean, I don't like to whine. I would never have considered voicing those
fears to a parent of neurotypicals. Not
only would they not really get it, I
think, but they would likely also be quick to downplay my concerns.
Okay, so maybe I sell short the character of the vast
majority of parents of a child with Down syndrome… I know it's unfair. I know that most of you reading this post
also fall into that category. And, for
that, I'm sorry.
To be perfectly honest, I write what my primary feelings
are/were/have been…I write from that place in my heart that is filled with love
and worry for my beautiful, sensitive, innocent, unique daughter. We
all have that place in there, regardless of how many children we have. And, whether mine is misplaced or not, it's
how I feel, and my concerns are real
to me.
Two years ago, my friend Amy and I met for the first time on
the last day of the National Down Syndrome Congress (NDSC) convention in Denver. We were introduced by a mutual friend who
knew we were both parents of "onlies," and we embraced like old friends, as
kindred spirits, each with the same concerns for our children. We immediately recognized a need for outreach
to all of us spread out there who had yet to find each other, had yet to find any kind of support.
We began to think of ways we could get some sort of
recognition at a future NDSC event, and, as a means of research into just how many of us were in this unique
situation, 6 months later, my Down
Syndrome and the Only Child Facebook group was born. The response to the group completely bowled me over! Almost overnight, I watched the membership
requests surpass 100, and it kept growing to its current number over
200-strong! Those who joined expressed
so much joy at having found a place to just talk
about it with others who totally get it,
were excited to be a part of such an elite group so critical to our emotional
Requests to The-Powers-That-Be at NDSC were made
for a Sharing Session (an informal group session led most often by parents on
the first day of the general conference, covering broad topics of
interest). After a few initial
turn-downs, Amy and I were thrilled to get word that permission was granted,
and an "Only Child" session would be included this year in Phoenix, with us as
Today is Sunday. I'm
currently sitting on a plane returning home as I write this. The high of the weekend in Phoenix will
likely cling for another few days, having started from the moment my plane
touched down there, with a true pinnacle at the moment Amy and I began to speak
and lead a group of more than 30 parents who were excited to have found each
Everyone introduced themselves, spoke about the biggest
topics of concern they face as parents of onlies.
Some cried.
I'm actually getting teary now as I write this.
It was that impactful.
They were tears of worry.
Tears of gratitude. Tears of just
plain being overwhelmed and under-understood...lost...for so long.
And now found.
Maybe I make this sound super dramatic, but really, for me
and for others, it was.
It's hard to explain the impact
we all had on each other. I actually
feel really changed by that experience, and am pretty sure I'm not alone.
I'll write more soon, in another post, about what topics
were discussed. But for now, I just
wanted to re-live that feeling.
The need for this group was obvious. We need to make sure TPTB at NDSC know
this. For those of you who are reading
this, who attended that session, or who would plan on attending a future
session if it were offered (the convention will be held next year in Orlando, at the end of July), please send feedback of some sort to NDSC…I can
provide you with e-mail addresses (I don't particularly want to make them public
here…just send me an e-mail at email@example.com
and I'll send you what I can!).
Thank you to everyone who moved me this weekend, and many thanks to the amazing folks at NDSC for helping to make this happen.


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We now face a great civic task: deciding the referendum on whether to strike down Senate Bill 21, which slashes state revenues from the oil industry by about a billion dollars a year. Which side do you believe?
I go with the leaders I have long observed to have state residents' best interests at heart and who have spent many years working on state oil policy: founding father Vic Fischer, Sen. Gary Stevens, scholarly Jack Roderick, and the honor roll of the dead — Jay Hammond, Wally Hickel, Don Gilman and Hugh Malone, among them.
Gov. Sean Parnell and Sen. Peter Micciche place their faith in the oil culture from which they come. I don't doubt their sincerity, just their misplaced faith in the industry which the Alaska Supreme Court ruled guilty of "deliberate falsification in computing the price paid to Alaska for its royalty oil," referring to billions of dollars giant oil corporations had cheated out of Alaskans from 1977 to 1982 (Amerada-Hess case).
Gov. Hickel warned us, "Meanwhile the oil industry and companies that depend on them are flocking to support candidates for Governor and the Legislature who will do their bidding."
And they succeeded. Sen. Micciche and Gov. Parnell are two prime examples. SB 21 cuts oil severance taxes and royalties, money that will come out of Alaska's schools, highway maintenance and other general fund expenditures. The oil senator amended the oil governor's 33 percent clause to 35 percent in a deal which looked a lot like being prearranged to make him look less like he was taking orders from his career-long employer. That would be Alaska's biggest resource exporter, Conoco-Phillips, the giant oil corporation for which the senator manages Cook Inlet natural gas.
Gov. Parnell, as a corporate lawyer, found the oil industry the best of clients. Right or wrong, he vigorously represented them. That's the job for a corporate mouthpiece. That's not the job for our governor.
Some governors enjoyed the perks of industry friendship more than others: Gov. Parnell is in the company of former Governors Knowles and Sheffield in that regard. Governors Gruening, Egan, Hammond and Hickel all embraced the interests of ordinary Alaskans, and believed in treating industry respectfully but at arms length.
Big oil has not treated us the same way. They removed the obstacles to slashing what they pay for Alaska's North Slope crude by paying for the election of their own senators, who removed Gary Stevens, Burt Stedman and Lyman Hoffman from the leadership. Wired directly to lobbyists, the new guys in charge — charged.
Sen. Stevens spoke to Alaskans from the Senate floor: "Those who don't know history are doomed to repeat it. I don't want to dwell on those abuses but I ask you to remember just three events in our historic relationship with the industry, so we won't repeat them. Remember Amerada Hess. Remember the Exxon Valdez. And remember Bill Allen. Those three events are not the only abuses we have experienced. I was elected to the legislature in 2000 and was surprised to see Bill Allen and VECO employees so often in the halls and offices of the Capitol. As we now know, some of our elected officials were bribed yet still voted on oil tax bills and even went to prison for their actions.
"Those three events are not the only abuses — the wise person learns from history and remembers our past. We don't want to be accused again of inexcusable trustfulness when dealing with the oil industry."
The investment climate remains very friendly for oil development. There has long been 60 percent in tax credits for exploration and development and a web of loopholes, netbacks, incentives, rebates and deductions. Congress has eliminated much federal tax, no matter what our local state taxes may be at the moment.
As Gov. Hammond said: "It is the obligation of oil company CEOs to maximize benefits for their shareholders. It is the obligation of the state's CEO to do the same for his."
Longtime Homer resident Larry Smith writes that he is "interested in good goverrnment, honest politics and fair dinkum for the permanent fund."


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Just a week after news that Genie Francis will be reprising the role of Laura Spencer on GENERAL HOSPITAL comes word that the character's first husband, Scott Baldwin, is also returning. Billy Warlock (ex-A.J.) tweeted the news that Kin Shriner would be returning to the soap.
Said Warlock, "Jon Lindstrom [Kevin] is back on GH and now Kin Shriner is going back. Please give them lots of support."
Shriner was last seen on the show in 2008, when Scott joined Laura on her flight to Paris. The actor first began playing Scott in 1977. He revealed in a 2010 We Love Soaps interview that Scott was the favorite character he had played.
"I've had the most fun with him because with him I've been able to span four decades from my 20s to my 30s and my 40s and into my 50s," Shriner said, "so I have history playing his dreams and ambitions and faults and everything else. He has been with me the longest. The other guys kind of fell by the wayside."
Shriner starts shooting January 22.
"There are four or five girls in that town that are ripe for some more Scotty action," Shriner teases in a new TV Guide Magazine interview. "Lucy has unfinished business with me, and there's Crazy Heather, Tracy Quartermaine, Anna Devane. He was involved with all of them. And then Laura, of course. I don't know what they've got planned for me. It's very hush-hush-sweet-charlotte down there at ABC these days. Back in the old days we didn't have all this texting and googling and tweeting to spoil storylines but, still, at the Luke and Laura wedding, [exec producer] Gloria Monty kept me locked in a trailer so the secret wouldn't get out that Scotty was there to catch the bouquet. So, really, nothing's changed!"
Co-star Anthony Geary (Luke) had high praise for Shirner when he made the We Love Soaps Greatest Actor countdown three years ago.
"Kin Shriner is authentic, a true original," Geary said. "There is no one like him. His on screen performances are always interesting, quirky, off kilter, and often ironic, sparkling with glimpses of his great sense of humor. Off screen is a good friend and confidant. We know where the bodies are buried, Kin and I."
- INTERVIEW: Catching Up With Kin Shriner
- 50 Greatest Soap Actors: #36 Kin Shriner
- Martha Byrne & Kin Shriner Check Out Michael Park In "Cat On A Hot Tin Roof"
- Susan Bedsow Horgan & Thom Racina to write ONE LIFE TO LIVE
Monday, January 14, 2013
Kin Shriner Returning To GENERAL HOSPITAL
General Hospital,
Kin Shriner
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Rick Warren to Tackle Biblical Illiteracy With '40 Days in the Word'
Well-known for starting Bible study campaigns that often become staples for churches around the world, Pastor Rick Warren announced that Saddleback Church in Orange County will begin a "40 Days in the Word" study next month to tackle biblical illiteracy.
Warren, whose bestselling book The Purpose Driven Life was a accompanied by a "40 Days of Purpose" study for small groups, said in a video introducing the new campaign that he has three goals for "our entire church family."
"First, I want you to learn to love the Word more than anything else in your life, that you love it like you've never loved it before. Then, learn the Word in a way that you've never learned it before. And I want you to live the word like you've never lived it before," said Warren in the short video on the church's website.
"The Bible says that God's word was given to transform our lives, not simply to inform our lives," he tells viewers. "It wasn't given to increase our knowledge, but to change our lives."
Warren said that when asked about which translation of the Bible is best, he once told a man, "The best translation is when you translate it into your life." When he was told by the man that he had a Living Bible translation, Warren replied, "You ought to be a living Bible."
He went on to say, "We are either testimonies for God or we are testimonies for the evil one."
"God says he want His word to dwell in our hearts. It's a journey that you are going to be glad that you came with me on," he concludes in the video.
Explaining the motivation behind the project, Warren lamented on Wednesday during a year-end webcast that one of the convictions he got this past year "is that Americans are biblically illiterate."
"They just don't know the Word of God ... Our parents' generation knew the Word of God pretty well. My generation knew a little bit. The next generation knows none of it."
Warren is not without controversy for his purpose-driven preaching methods, even within the Christian community. His "life application" style of teaching has some pastors saying Warren's method is not biblically correct.
However, Warren recently explained his teaching methods in an interview with Preaching Magazine. In the interview discussing the 40 Days in the Word campaign, he was asked about his approach to preaching, which most times includes having every point of his sermon outline being a statement of application.
Warren told the interviewer that "the deepest kind of preaching is really life application preaching. I know people say, 'Well that's shallow preaching.' Actually it's much deeper. It's quite easy simply to do an exposition of a book. I've done it. I once preached through the Book of Romans; it took me two and a half years.
"I preached through many of the books of the Bible verse by verse. That's actually the easiest kind of preaching there is. I pull some commentaries off the shelf. I look at the text; I explain the text; I apply the text; and that's it..."
Warren continued in the interview: "Life application preaching is not shallow; otherwise the Sermon on the Mount is the shallowest sermon ever done, because it's 100 percent life application preaching.
"Jesus started out by saying: Let Me tell you eight ways to be happy. Blessed are you if you do this; blessed are you if you do this. He says: Let Me give you six reasons to not worry; and He goes into the six reasons to not worry. Then He says: Let Me tell you about divorce: Don't do it. Let Me tell you about anger: Don't do it. One life application after another. Then He gets to the end and says: If you do this, you're smart and you're wise. If you don't, you're dumb."
While some pastors say verse-by-verse teaching is the only way to give sermons, Warren explained in the interview that the opposite is true.
"Ecclesiastes 12:9-11 is, in my understanding, the clearest explanation of a preaching style found in Scripture. You certainly don't find anybody telling you how to do verse-by-verse or book-by-book preaching in Scripture. It's not there. None of the apostles were verse-by-verse preachers. Jesus wasn't, Peter, Paul – nobody was," he said.
Ecclesiastes 12:9-11 (NIV)
Not only was the Teacher wise, but he also imparted knowledge to the people. He pondered and searched out and set in order many proverbs. The Teacher searched to find just the right words, and what he wrote was upright and true. The words of the wise are like goads, their collected sayings like firmly embedded nails-given by one shepherd.


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British Escape with Return to London
On this Escape, the traditions and intrigue of Britain are calling you. Experience the fascinating cities and countryside of this beautiful land without the crowds—and even better—without the high-season prices. A concise Britain tour that takes you to the historical must-see sites from London to Edinburgh. History buffs will delight in seeing mysterious, prehistoric Stonehenge (just imagine how those stones got there!); the Roman Baths in Bath, constructed around 70 AD and today one of the best-preserved Roman remains in the world; Liverpool, once a great Victorian city and Atlantic seaport, and renowned for its musical heritage; and Edinburgh, home to many Scottish monarchs, including Queen Margaret, who died here in 1093.Literary fans will enjoy visiting Shakespeare's birthplace in Stratford-upon-Avon, and Grasmere, home to William Wordsworth. But that's not all…a London Guide will show you all the city's famous landmarks, from Buckingham Palace to the Prime Minister's Downing Street and Westminster Abbey; in Edinburgh you'll tour the castle and see Scotland's Crown Jewels; and in Liverpool, your Tour Director will walk you through the Beatles quarter—all the better experience without the long lines and crowds. For the conclusion of your vacation, travel via express train back to London for one night. From the historical landmarks to the beautiful scenery, this tour is a great way to sample what Britain has to offer and it's all possible at a price you can afford!
City Highlights
LONDONWelcome dinner; guided sightseeingSTONEHENGEVisit the prehistoric monumentBATHVisit the Roman relicsSTOW-ON-THE-WOLDTake a stroll in this Cotswolds villageSTRATFORD-UPON-AVONTake pictures of Anne Hathaway's Cottage, visit Shakespeare's birthplaceLIVERPOOLWalking tour through The Beatles quarterGRASMEREVisit Wordsworth's villageEDINBURGHGuided sightseeing, visit Edinburgh Castle; farewell dinner at a local restaurantEDINBURGH–LONDONBy first-class express train
Full English breakfast daily; 3 three-course dinners with wine and choice of menus, including a welcome dinner in London and a farewell dinner in Edinburgh
Hotels listed may occasionaly be substituted with alternate hotels of equivalent standard.Single Supplement Waived (limited availability).
Motorcoach; first-class express train. Free wi-fi available on your motorcoach and in most hotel lobbies.


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Those who invest in mechanics today in Europe choose Biesse.
What the European financial market has been demonstrating, even as early as the last quarter of 2014, is a continuously growing interest in machinery companies like Biesse, whose market value is registering a trend that goes way above every expectation.
2015 began in this same positive light, in spite of all of the adversity and financial tension still present on a global level, showing an elevation that has been favoured in particular by the chronic weakness of the euro. This weakness significantly benefits exportation and Biesse can't be anything but advantaged in terms of market penetration, being as it is an international Group that exports almost 90% of its sales volume.
"In the last period, Biesse over-performed the Stock Exchange indices in a substantial way," explains Alberto Amurri, IR for Biesse. "In fact, the stock registered an increase of 72% in 2014 against a rise of 55% for the main equivalent" in Germany.
The business and industrial activities completed by Biesse in the last 18 months have transmitted trust to the financial markets, inspiring a more widespread optimistic perception which supports an upswing in the demand for durable goods.
Read also the article: Biesse continues to rise but is just the appetizer (in italian).


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We allow officers to have facial hair. Mustache, goatee or complete beards are the only types of facial hair allowed. They must be finely groomed and neatly trimmed and the neck must be clean shaven. The facial hair may not be longer than 1/2 inch.
Show All Answers
Our hiring process consists of a written examination (conducted on a computer in a monitored setting), physical fitness test, structured oral interview, background investigation, polygraph examination, Chief's interview, psychological interview and medical physical exam. The entire process, with specifics about each component, can be found here.
We do accept lateral transfers. See the answers below for your specific situation.
Further information can be found on our recruiting page.
By Delaware state regulations and City of Newark ordinance, you must be 21 upon date of academy graduation to work as a police officer.
There is no age maximum. However, retirement is mandatory at age 55. You must serve for a minimum of 5 years to earn a pension.
No prior police service: The City will provide a $5,000 hiring bonus to new hires that do not qualify for the Prior Sworn Police Officer bonus detailed below.
Prior Sworn Police Officers: The City will provide a $20,000 hiring bonus to new hires that are Delaware Council on Police Training ("COPT") certified police officers OR are Delaware police academy exempt based on their police certification in another state. The determination of academy exemption is made by the Delaware COPT after submission of training records.
The hiring bonus is payable upon completion of field training (approximately 9-12 months after date of hire for non-certified officers and 6-12 weeks after Delaware certification for certified officers).
The City currently provides take home vehicles for some police officers. The Newark City Council has approved a take home vehicle program for all police officers. Additional vehicles have been ordered to increase the size of the fleet. All police officers are expected to have take home vehicles by early 2024.
We allow tattoos visible to the public while on-duty, except on the face, neck or hand (a tattoo or brand symbolic of a civil union or marriage on the ring finger is permitted with approval). We prohibit tattoos, body art, or brands that are extremist, indecent or sexist regardless of location on the body. Tattoos, body art, or brands that advocate or symbolize gang affiliation, supremacist, or extremist groups, or drug use, are also prohibited.
We require 30 college credits with military service. Prior military service is defined as serving two or more years of a commitment. A commitment is defined as either three or more years of active duty, or six or more years of guard or reserve service.
The college requirements may be waived by the City Manager and Chief of Police for CERTIFIED POLICE OFFICERS with at least 18 months active police experience after graduation from a qualifying police academy
For candidates who travel more than 100 miles from their home to Newark, DE to apply for the position of police officer, we will attempt to schedule parts of the process on the same day, thereby reducing the number of trips to Newark required to complete the process. Candidates who meet the 100-mile criteria will receive notification prior to the written examination from the HR Department.
We do not have any residency requirement to apply, to be hired or to work for Newark PD. We have officers who live not only in Delaware, but southern New Jersey, Maryland and Pennsylvania.
Our physical fitness requirement can be found here. After passing the written examination, candidates will be given information about taking the physical fitness test ("PT test") with our contracted service provider. Candidates can set-up an appointment to take the test at their convenience. The PT test must be completed before the start of the background investigation. The background investigation may begin anywhere from 3-8 weeks or longer after the written test.
In general, recruit police officers attend the Delaware State Police Academy in Dover or the New Castle County Police Academy in Newark. While the DSP academy is a residential academy where recruits come home on the weekends, recruits commute from their home to the New Castle County Police academy every weekday.
A new recruit officer cannot request a specific academy. The recruit officer is generally sent to whichever academy is starting soonest after the recruit's hire date.
Recruit officers are paid full salary and receive all benefits during academy training, including accrual of pension time.
If you have further questions not answered on this site, please call our recruiting information line at (302) 366-7100 x3499 or send us an email.


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Questions For Eduardo Halfon, Author Of 'The Polish Boxer'
The Polish Boxer
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Guatemalan author Eduardo Halfon is this week's Alt.latino guest DJ, and he's a natural choice; his new book, The Polish Boxer, is a series of semi-autobiographical stories woven through with loving references to jazz and classical music.
Alt.latino host Jasmine Garsd had this to say about The Polish Boxer:
"In my favorite story, Professor Halfon searches throughout Guatemala for Juan Kalel, a brilliant indigenous student who mysteriously dropped out of school. When he finally finds Kalel, they start talking about their mutual love of poetry: 'Do you know, Halfon, how to say poetry in Cakchikel? Juan asked suddenly ... Pach'un tzij, he said ... Do you know what it means? he asked, and although I hesitated, I said no... Braid of words, he said.' "
We thought we'd ask Halfon a few questions about literature and the important books in his life.
What was the first book you read that made you fall in love with literature?
I was 8 or 9 years old when I read Charlie and The Chocolate Factory, by Roald Dahl. I read it for school because I had to, because only the students who'd read it would be allowed to see the movie. I remember that it was screened in a small classroom, made dark by thick black drapes hung on the windows, and the girl I liked or maybe loved was sitting right next to me. To impress her as we watched Charlie and Grandpa Joe and old Slugworth, I proceeded to remove a tiny scab from my elbow and let the wound bleed in the dark. She, of course, noticed nothing. My first book was also my first fiasco at love.
What should people read to better understand your work?
I'd like to think that the windows to my work aren't so much in other books, but in the films of Bergman or Kiarostami, in the music of Monk or Dylan, in the ever-moving yet balanced mobile sculptures of Calder, in the childhood game (always the most serious ones) of hopscotch.
What were you reading, if anything, while you wrote The Polish Boxer?
The Polish Boxer was written slowly, over many years. And, actually, is still being written now. I'm still writing it. I haven't finished it. Perhaps I'll never finish it. I've just written three new stories or episodes, for instance, which belong to that series, to that narrator's quest, and which will be included next year in the Brazilian and Italian editions of the book. So every story I read, every film I see, every song I discover, finds its way onto my pages, one way or another. And my pages are never final.
What books or authors would you recommend to help readers understand Guatemala better?
One of the most important Guatemalan novels of the last few decades is Time Commences in Xibalba, written by Luis de Lion, a Kaqchiquel Maya who used Spanish as his literary language. In 1984, Luis de Lion was kidnapped by the military forces governing the country, tortured during 20 days, and then assassinated — information that only came to light 15 years later, in 1999, when his name and the details of his murder appeared in the so-called "Diario Militar," a secret military document which lists the Guatemalans who were "disappeared" by the military forces between 1983 and 1985. In that list, Luis de Lion is number 135. His novel — as beautiful, sinister, hideous and violent as Guatemala — was published posthumously.
If you were sentenced to a desert island for many years and could take one book, which one would it be?
I could say a blank one, so as to be able to write while alone and deserted, but that sounds facetious. I could say Don Quixote, but that's a cliché answer for a Spanish writer, and it would probably, over many years of reading it on a white sand beach, drive me to madness. I could say Cathedral, by Raymond Carver, the culmination of a storyteller's craft, and one of the books that I instinctively read over and over, but I'd perhaps need to pack something a bit more peppy. I could say Tim O'Shei's How to Survive on a Deserted Island, but that seems like an ill-fated attempt at island humor (plus, I think it's out of print).


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BAYONNE – City businessman Anthony Zanowic, the third-place finisher in the city's May 13 mayoral election, has thrown his support behind Mayor Mark Smith in his run-off with Police Capt. James Davis next month.
Zanowic garnered four percent of the mayoral vote, enough to stymie the other two candidates from reaching the required 50 percent plus one vote, and forcing the run-off on June 10.
On Friday, May 16, Zanowic endorsed Mayor Smith and his team for re-election, according to a statement released by the Smith campaign.
"After careful consideration and after meeting with both Mayor Smith and Jimmy Davis, I have decided to endorse Mayor Smith and his team," Zanowic said in a written statement. "As a conservative, my most important concern is making government smaller and less expensive. Mayor Smith shares these goals. He has a solid plan with demonstrable results, like this year's zero tax increase, while Mr. Davis offers no governmental or management experience whatsoever."
"Mr. Davis' promise to settle the teacher contract without explaining how he would pay for it is fiscally irresponsible and would cost the average taxpayer over $1,100 a year in higher property taxes," Zanowic said. "Mayor Smith cares about our taxpayers and is being fiscally responsible with our money. We don't agree on everything, but Mayor Smith is the clear choice in this election. For these and other good reasons, I urge my supporters to vote to re-elect Mayor Mark Smith and his team in the June 10 runoff election."
Smith thanked Zanowic for his support, saying the endorsement was "an important step forward toward our goal on June 10."
"Anthony Zanowic is a good man who loves our city and I appreciate his endorsement very much," Smith said. "Above all else, Anthony speaks out for taxpayers, and we are both committed to efficient, affordable government. I look forward to working with Anthony and his team in the future."
Smith received more than 49 percent of the vote on May 13, missing a first-ballot victory by about 180 votes. – Joseph Passantino


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HARTFORD, Conn. -- A 6-year-old boy killed in the massacre in Sandy Hook Elementary School shouted for his classmates to run while the gunman paused to reload and was shot moments later, the boy's mother said Friday.
The boy, Jesse Lewis, had just seen his teacher shot and urged the others to flee while the gunman, Adam Lanza, put a new clip into his semi-automatic rifle.
"He yelled, 'Run!' Adam reloaded and shot him in the head," said Scarlett Lewis, who learned details of the events inside the classroom from investigators who gathered accounts from children who survived.
"When I heard he used his last few seconds on earth to try to save his friends, I was not surprised," she said. "I am so incredibly proud of him."
The boy's actions were first reported by The Hartford Courant.
Lanza shot his way into the school on Dec. 14 and killed 20 first-grade children and six women in one of the worst school shootings in U.S. history. He also killed his mother earlier in the day and committed suicide as police arrived at the school building.
A report on the Newtown shooting by investigators is due to be released soon. Investigators have not disclosed a possible motive for the massacre.
In Jesse's classroom, which was led by teacher Victoria Soto, 11 students survived, including some who ran past Lanza when he stopped to reload. In the classroom led by Lauren Rousseau, only one child survived. Both teachers were killed.
Scarlett Lewis said several people emerged as heroes that day, but her understanding is that some of the survivors ran because of what her son did to help them.
Lewis has dedicated herself recently to the Jesse Lewis Choose Love Foundation, which promotes ways for communities to "choose love over anger, gratitude over entitlement, and forgiveness and compassion over bitterness." The foundation was inspired by a message that Jesse had left on their kitchen chalkboard with the words "nurturing," "healing" and love."
Related stories


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Looking around my children's playroom it's easy to see what the favorite toy is. It's Lego Duplo. Even though my oldest who is 7 has been playing with classic Lego for years now he will still happily play with Duplo with his little sister. Creating castles, forts,bridges, airports, guns, and our favorite Hex-bug mazes! Playing creatively with Duplo is the bulk of what we do with the toy but these colorful and sturdy blocks are also wonderful manipulatives for learning. Here are 8 Lego Duplo preschool activities we have used for fun and learning. Click through the title to be taken to the full activity post.
6.Building A Rainbow With Duplo
7.Outdoor Alphabet Hunt with Duplo
8. Roll and Build Duplo Math Game
Lego Books For New Readers
All our book lists include affiliate links.City Adventures, No. 3: Calling All Cars! (Lego Reader, Level 1) by Sonia Sander was the first Lego book we checked out from the library a few years ago. We've since bought the book because my son loved reading it and could do it without any help in preschool. The story is a simple one about a bank robber and the police that must save the day. Stories like this really appeal to young kids because they are so black and white. The bad guy stole money, now the good guy will get him! What I love about them is that they involve him even more in the Lego world, and after reading he does go and create more.
LEGO City: Ready for Takeoff! (Level 1) is not just a cute book for Lego fans but also for anyone taking a trip by plane to get their kids ready for what to expect. I was pleasantly surprised by the quality of the details and how well it helped us prep my son for air travel. We got it for a trip from Seattle to Chicago we took a few summers ago and it was an instant hit. The text is a great mix of sight words, words that need to be sounded out and the illustrations are wonderfully helpful for kids needing visual clues for some words. Even if you aren't going on a plane any time soon this is a good book all about air travel, and it just happens to also be set in Lego City.
LEGO Kingdoms Defend the Castle (DK READERS) by Hannah Dolan is another Lego book that we've had for years but never makes it into the donation box. This one is about two feuding groups of knights and there is an evil wizard in there too. Knights are a big part of my son's pretend play so I knew this book would be a hit when I bought it. I like the vocabulary in this book, my son loves big words and I find him repeating the words quietly to himself as he practices the pronunciation. It makes me happy to know he is reading what he wants to but I don't have to worry that he isn't being stretched as a reader or reading complete drivel in an attempt to read what he's interested in.
How do you play with Lego Duplo at your house?


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I am struck with encoded URL's and am not sure how to proceed. I used to match patterns like 'welcome/to/this/page' which worked very well with mod rewrite. But I came across a situation where I get encoded URL's from an application. For example,
https://127.0.0.1:403/welcome/to/this/page is sent as
I tried matching the "%2F" to no avail. How do we deal with these kind of issues?