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Fuel Vaporization: Causes and Cures
Never had fuel vaporization? You're lucky, but don't be complacent because it can strike at any time. For those afflicted, crawling in traffic jams invariably leads to sitting on the hard shoulder with the hood up, stopping for gas can mean waiting half-an-hour for the engine bay to cool – and curing the problem can seem almost impossible.
With fuel supplies in turmoil and prices rising, refiners are introducing different blends of chemicals into fuel all the time. Refinery gasoline, which is made into petrol, boils at a range of 20-180 degrees C and, while you won't get 20-degree boiling point petrol, other elements legally blended in current fuels can boil at temperatures as low as 40 degrees. That could boil off in your gas tank on a hot day: harmful to the environment, as gas vapor helps create damaging ozone in the lower atmosphere, as well as to your wallet.
More detrimental to your engine's smooth running is fuel boiling in the fuel line to the carburetor, as that can bring your classic to an abrupt and embarrassing halt until the engine bay has cooled off enough to let it through.
Most modern cars operate a fuel circulation system, where cool fuel is constantly pumped from the tank and the excess returns to be cooled again, rather than sitting in the fuel line getting hotter and hotter until it's needed – so gas refiners can get away with using blends that start to boil at lower temperatures: classics are not so lucky.
Fighting vaporization entails a four-pronged attack. First, find the best fuel for your car. Gasoline companies change the blend four times a year, with less volatile fuel for summer than winter, so if you've got winter fuel still in the tank, use it quick and fill up at a station that gets frequent deliveries. Shop around too, for not all gas companies use the same blends and you may find some fuels give less trouble than others.
Second, do everything you can to keep the fuel cool until it gets into the engine. That means using carburetor heat shields and manifold heat-soak blocks, re-routing fuel lines to cooler locations and wrapping them with reflective tape, moving an electric fuel pump to a cool location or fitting a heat-soak block to a mechanical fuel pump (or even abandoning it altogether in favor of a coolly located electric pump).
Also, make sure nothing's restricting the flow or pressure: clean all filters thoroughly, replace any old flexible lines and check the pump is operating at full efficiency. Fitting a higher-pressure pump may help but if it's too powerful for your float chamber needle valves you could be pouring fuel everywhere, with disastrous results. Ducting cool air from the grille to the carburetor float chambers will also help.
Third, make sure everything's running efficiently. That means getting the carburetors rebuilt if they're worn, keeping the ignition system in peak condition with its advance curve optimized to the engine, keeping combustion chambers carbon-free and making sure compressions are not reduced by worn bores or poorly seating valves.
Fourth, have the engine running as cool as possible. If the radiator is ten years old or more (less if you're in a hard water area), get it recored – and, if the engine's not had a recent rebuild, get the core plugs out and rod out the water passages. If the heater's inefficient, have it recored too. Then the final trick – fit a lower temperature thermostat so the engine runs cooler.
Published Dec 7th, 2015


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Whether on or off the grid, using solar panels (also called solar PV panels, PV panels, or PV modules) is one of the simplest and cleanest ways to convert the sun's energy into electricity. Solar panels are clean, quiet, direct, and incredibly durable, with a maintenance-free lifespan of decades. And solar has declined in price by more than half in just the last 10 years.
Real Goods' legacy is directly linked to the practicality and reliability of off-grid solar panels - we sold the first off-grid solar panel in the U.S., after all. But we've also built solar PV systems for thousands of customers across the country since 1978, and most are still going strong decades later.
Free shipping on 9+ panels Click here for details
Note: the $/Watt amounts listed below are based on the module's regular price and nominal Wattage rating.
We literally sold the first retail solar panel in the U.S. back in 1978 (a 9-Watt panel that cost $900!) and have been an industry leader in helping people go solar ever since. In those 40 years, we've seen PV design and manufacturing trends come and go, and we've watched the cost per Watt fall dramatically. We know what quality and value in solar panels looks like, and that's what we carry.
STC stands for Standard Test Conditions, which is the industry-standard performance test run on PV modules after manufacture. The test hits the panels with 1000 Watts per square meter of simulated sunlight at 77°F. Unfortunately, real-world conditions are usually not this favorable - meaning panels tend to perform below their STC results.
This is why it's important to check solar panel spec sheets for output or power "tolerance", which is the amount a given panel's power output can vary from its STC-rated power. For a 300-Watt panel, a tolerance rating of +/- 5W means the actual maximum power output of the module will be between 295W - 305W. A tolerance rating of +5/-0 means the module will put out between 300W - 305W. So to get the most out of your modules, avoid those negative power tolerances!
PTC stands for Photovoltaics for Utility Scale Applications Test Conditions. It's newer set of test criteria that more closely mimics real-world conditions by testing at a higher PV cell temperature (113°F compared to 77°F) and with a slight 2.2 mph breeze blowing across the panel.
If STC and PTC values are both listed on a solar panel spec sheet, the PTC values are more likely to reflect the performance you'll actually get.
NOCT stands for Normal Operating Cell Temperature. It is yet another set of test conditions and, like PTC, more closely mimics real-world conditions than STC tests.
NOCT test conditions are an irradiance of 800 Watts per square meter, ambient temperature of 68°F, and a 2.2 mph breeze.
Our Solar Techs have answers! Contact them at 800-919-2400 or [email protected]
To rack and mount your solar PV panels:

subset: commoncrawl


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1 x A5 Leather Binder
1 x Long Tip Zip Wallet
1 x Leather Keychain
2 x Leather Coasters
1 x Classic Kraft Box/ Premium Keepsake Pinewood Box with Lid, Adorned with Premium Grade Ribbon Ties,
1 x Exclusive Message Card with Personalised Handwritten Message
How do I personalize my product?
Most of our products come with complimentary name embossing option!
*Exception: Discounted products (ongoing promotions) do not qualify for our complimentary personalisation service. If personalisation is required, kindly select "personalisation service" on the website. https://www.thealign.co/products/personalisation-service-
Personalize with up to five (5) characters which are carefully hand stamped with metallic gold, adding a touch of luxe. Leave your desired monogram in the "Remark" section after checking out.
Letters A-Z, a-z, numbers 0-9, basic punctuation marks, and ♡ (heart), # (hashtag) are available.
If you require more than 5 characters, kindly Whatsapp Us at 0111-032 3702. Or you could click on the Whatsapp icon!
Can I add a message?
Our message card is a small way for us to say thanks for supporting a small business. The card doubles up as a message card and you can request for a custom message to be written if you wish - all for free!
Leave us your message in the "Remark" section after checking out. We will be handwriting your message on our exclusive message card - so do us a favour and keep it below 40 words.
The Gifting Experience
We want your gifting experience to be exceptional, filled with thoughtful details. That's why all your leather will arrive you in a kraft box OR our exclusive Premium Keepsake Pine Wood Box, adorned with premium grade ribbon ties, with tiny delights that will put a smile on your face. Please consider reusing, recycling, or repurposing them!


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In the coming months,
Wikiprogress activities will focus on youth well-being, as part of the Web-COSI vision of "statistics for all", starting with an online discussion taking part from December
1-15, and the launch of a new Wikiprogress Youth Portal. Kate Scrivens, Wikiprogress Manager, gives an overview of the
upcoming events and initiatives.
There are more youth living in the world
today than at any other time in human history. There are now an unprecedented
1.8 billion adolescents and young adults aged between 10 and 24, making up over
a quarter of the world population, according to a special report
published by the United Nations Population Fund this year. However, despite
making up such a significant share of the world population, young people's voices
are not always heard in measurement and policy debates, where the concerns of
older adults often predominate. Finding ways to better integrate young people's
concerns into policy, and ensure their well-being needs are being met are
therefore pressing goals for society. As the UN report puts it, "A world in which a quarter of humanity is
without full enjoyment of rights is a world without the basic building blocks
for change and progress."
In the coming months, Wikiprogress will be
focusing on youth well-being, in order to explore the concerns of the younger
generation in more depth and also to improve the way that the site caters to
young people's needs. This is part of Wikiprogress' involvement with the
EC-funded Web-COSI project, which aims to improve the involvement of all
parts of society with well-being and progress statistics.
Online discussion
From the 1-15 December, we will be hosting
an online discussion on youth well-being,
inspired by the European launch of the Global
Youth Wellbeing Index this week. Its aims will be to map out the main issues for youth well-being and to identify
some of the key organisations and initiatives working in the field. The
discussion will address the following broad questions:
- What is the state of youth well-being today?
- What are the most important dimensions of well-being for young people?
- What policies have had the most impact on youth well-being in the past? Provide examples of successful initiatives.
- How can we ensure that young people's needs are reflected in the Post-2015 Sustainable Development Goals agenda?
We are looking to hear from students and
young people from around the world, to gain different perspectives on this
issue, as well as to hear from experts and practitioners who have experience
and knowledge of youth well-being.
Online debate in early 2015
Following on from the online discussion in
December, Wikiprogress intends to pick up on some of the key issues and explore
them at more length and in more depth through an online debate being hosted in
partnership with CATALYST – another EC-funded project. The debate will run for
several weeks, gathering input to feed into a report on priorities for youth
well-being and policy that can be presented to decision makers. We'll be
writing more about this debate as the time gets closer.
Wikiprogress Youth Portal & Wikiprogress
In order to make the content on Wikiprogress
more accessible and relevant for young people, we have developed a new Youth Portal on the site. The
aim of this portal is to bring together resources that are of particular
interest to young people who want to find out more about measures and policies
to foster well-being and social progress. It will highlight videos and other
accessible content, as well as putting a spotlight on activities and
initiatives working on youth issues. It will also bring together information on
opportunities to get more involved in the activities and events of the
Wikiprogress community, such as Youth Conferences and volunteering and
interning opportunities.
A major part of the Youth Portal is the new Wikiprogress University programme. Wikiprogress University is intended to be
an online space where students can:
- Find out about opportunities to contribute to the platform, or establish a partnership between their university and Wikiprogress.
- Access educational resources that explain about key issues in the area of well-being and progress measurement.
- Find out about courses and training that would allow them to develop useful skills for working in the fields of well-being policy, research or advocacy.
Wikiprogress University and the Youth Portal
are both works in progress, and we welcome ideas and suggestions to make the
projects as useful to young people as possible, and we will welcome all
contributions to our online discussion and upcoming debate.
If you are interested in finding out more
about any of these activities, if you work for an organisation that specialises
in youth issues, if you are a student or administrator for a course on
well-being or progress issues, or if you have any ideas for content or news to
put on our Youth Portal and social media sites (Facebook and Twitter) we would
love to hear from you – just email email@example.com or tweet us @wikiprogress.
Kate Scrivens


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RECORD: Darwin, C. R. 1845. Extracts from letters to the General Secretary, on the analogy of the structure of some volcanic rocks with that of glaciers. By C. Darwin, Esq., F.R.S. Specimens were exhibited. With observations on the same subject by Prof. Forbes. [Communicated by J. D. Forbes. 3 February] Proceedings of the Royal Society of Edinburgh 2: 17-18.
REVISION HISTORY: Scanned, text prepared and edited by John van Wyhe 2002-8, textual corrections by Sue Asscher 12.2006. RN5
NOTE: See record in the Freeman Bibliographical Database, enter its Identifier here.
2. Extracts from Letters to the General Secretary, on the Analogy of the Structure of Some Volcanic Rocks with that of Glaciers. By C. Darwin, Esq., F.R.S. Specimens were exhibited. With Observations on the same subject, made by Professor Forbes.1
"I take the liberty of addressing you, knowing how much you are interested on the subject of your discovery of the veined structure of glacier ice. I have a specimen (from Mr. Stokes's2 collection) of Mexican obsidian, which, judging from your description, must resemble, to a considerable degree, the zoned ice. It is zoned with quite straight parallel lines, like an agate; and these zones, as far as I can see under the microscope, appear entirely due to the greater or lesser number of excessively minute, flattened air cavities. I cannot avoid suspecting that in this case, and in many others, in which lava of the trachytic series (generally of very imperfect fluidity) are laminated, that the structure is due to the stretching of the mass or stream during its movement, as in the ice-streams of glaciers. * * *
"If the subject of the lamination of volcanic rocks should interest you, I would venture to ask you to refer to p. 65-72 of my small volume of 'Geological Observations on Volcanic Islands.'* I there
* The laminated, volcanic rocks of Ascension, consist, as described by Mr. Darwin, of excessively thin, quite parallel layers of minute crystals of quartz (determined by Professor Miller3) and diopside; of atoms of an oxide of iron, and of an amorphous, black augitic mineral; and, lastly, of a more or less pure feldspathic stone, with perfect crystals of feldspar placed lengthways. The following is a portion of the passage referred to:—"Several causes appear capable of producing zones of different tension in masses semiliquified by heat. In a fragment of devitrified glass I have observed layers of sphærulites, which appeared, from the manner in which they were abruptly bent, to have been produced by the simple contraction of the mass in the vessel, in which it cooled. In certain dykes on Mount Ætna, described by M. Elie de Beaumont,4 as bordered by alternating bands of scoriaceous and compact rock, one is led to suppose that the stretching movement of the surrounding strata, which originally produced the fissures, continued, whilst the injected rock remained fluid. Guided, however, by Professor Forbes's clear description of the zoned structure of glacier ice, far the most probable explanation of the laminated structure of these feldspathic rocks appears to be, that they have been stretched, whilst slowly flowing onwards in a pasty condition, in precisely the same manner, as Professor Forbes believes, that the ice of moving glaciers is stretched and fissured. In both cases, the zones may be compared to those in the finest agates; in both, they extend in the direction in which the mass has flowed, and those exposed on the surface are generally vertical. In the ice, the porous laminæ are rendered
1 James David Forbes (1828-1876), professor of natural philosophy, Edinburgh University, 1833-1860, secretary of the Royal Society of Edinburgh, 1840-1851. This item was reprinted verbatim in Forbes 1859. See Correspondence vol. 3, pp. 66 and 74.
2 John Lort Stokes (1812-1885), naval officer and mate and Assistant Surveyor aboard the Beagle with Darwin. The specimen is discussed in Volcanic islands, pp. 67, 69-70.
3 William Hallowes Miller (1801-1880), mineralogist who helped Darwin with rock specimens from the Beagle voyage.
4 Jean Baptiste Armand Louis Léonce Élie de Beaumont (1798-1874), French geologist.
throw out the idea, that the structure in question may perhaps be explained by your views on the zoned structure of glacier ice, the layers of less tension being, in the case of the Ascension obsidian-rocks, rendered apparent, chiefly by the crystalline and concretionary action superinduced in them, instead of, as in zoned ice, by the congelation of water. * * *
"How singular it at first appears, that your discoveries in the structure of glacier ice should explain the structure, as I fully believe they will, of many volcanic masses. I, for one, have for years been quite confounded whenever I thought of the lamination of rocks which have flowed in a liquified state. Will your views throw any light on the primary laminated rocks? The laminæ certainly seem very generally parallel to the lines of disturbance and movement. Believe me, &c. C. DARWIN."
To Professor FORBES.
Professor Forbes confirmed the previous remarks by others, made by himself on the specimens transmitted to him by Mr Darwin, and on specimens from Lipari and Iceland in the collection of the Royal Society, as well as by direct observations made by himself on the lava streams of Ætna.
distinct by the subsequent congelation of infiltrated water; in the stony feldspathic lavas by subsequent crystalline and concretionary action. The fragment of glassy obsidian in Mr Stokes's collection, which is zoned with minute air-cells, must strikingly resemble, judging from Professor Forbes's description, a fragment of the zoned ice; and if the rates of cooling and the nature of the mass had been favourable to its crystallization, or to concretionary action, we should here have had the finest parallel zones of different composition and texture. In glaciers, the lines of porous ice and of minute crevices seem to be due to an incipient stretching, caused by the central parts of the frozen stream moving faster than the sides and bottom, which are retarded by friction. Hence, in glaciers of certain form, and towards the lower end of most glaciers, the zones become horizontal. May we venture to suppose that, in the feldspathic lavas with horizontal laminæ, we see an analogous case? All geologists who have examined trachytic regions have come to the conclusion, that the lavas of this series have possessed an exceedingly imperfect fluidity; and as it is evident that only matter thus characterized would be subject to become fissured, and to be formed into zones of different tensions, in the manner here supposed, we probably see the reason why augitic lavas, which appear, generally, to have possessed a higher degree of fluidity, are not, like the feldspathic lavas, divided into laminæ of different composition and texture. Moreover, in the augitic series, there never appears to be any tendency to that kind of concretionary action, which, we have seen, plays an important part in the lamination of rocks of the trachytic series, or, at least, in rendering that structure apparent."
Citation: John van Wyhe, ed. 2002-. The Complete Work of Charles Darwin Online. (http://darwin-online.org.uk/)
File last updated 28 November, 2022


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Tropics will be the first region to be hit hard by global warming
Scientists have determined when the climates of numerous locations around the world will shift to a new, hotter normal as a result of higher greenhouse gas emissions, according to a study released Wednesday in the journal Nature.
The tropics appear most likely to be the first to shift to an unprecedented new climate, perhaps as early as the next decade, the analysis shows. The average location on Earth could experience a substantially different climate by 2047 if human beings continue to do little to rein in emissions of heat-trapping gases, the report warns.
The shifts to consistently warmer temperatures in the world's climates pose a considerable threat to thousands of plant and animal species. They would either have to move, adapt or face extinction.
Most aspects of human society would face grave disruptions as well, from agriculture to water security to public health.
"Regardless of the scenario, changes will be coming soon," said Camilo Mora, an assistant professor of geography at the University of Hawaii, Manoa, and the study's lead author. "Within my generation, whatever climate we were used to will be a thing of the past."
Even if nations took a more aggressive approach to reducing greenhouse gases, the annual mean temperature in an average location in the world would still shift out of its previous normal range by 2069, Mora and his colleagues found.
The inevitability of the global shift to hotter climates should not be seen as a cause for inaction, warned the study's authors and others who read the paper. Rather, it highlights the urgency of adopting measures that would give people and other organisms better odds of coping with their new, hotter environs, they said.
"The optimistic way to look at this is that taking steps to reduce emissions is buying us time — for species to adapt, for human societies to change and to come up with technological advancements," said study coauthor Abby Frazier, a graduate student in geography at the University of Hawaii, Manoa. "It lets us put on the brakes. If you were about to get into an accident, wouldn't you want it to happen at 20 miles per hour rather than 80?"
Mora said the research arose from the realization that while there were many studies looking at the absolute change in global temperature and the speed of the transformation, there was a gap in knowledge regarding the timing of such shifts.
The team's findings are based on annual average temperatures around the world over the last 150 years. The notion of a shift to a different climate means that the annual average temperature for a given location will be consistently outside the bounds of its current range.
"We set the bounds of the past minimum and maximum values, and the shift is when the annual mean temperature moves beyond these bounds and never comes back in," said study coauthor Ryan Longman, also a graduate student in geography at the University of Hawaii, Manoa. "The new minimum temperature of the future is the old maximum temperature of the past."
Many studies have focused on the great temperature increases expected in the Arctic. But the new study's conclusion that the tropics will suffer unprecedented temperature changes first surprised experts who weren't involved in the research.
The swift changes expected for the tropics "immediately raises all sorts of alarms bells," said Stuart L. Pimm, an expert on the tropics and professor of conservation ecology at Duke University. "The greatest variety of life and biodiversity and the poorest people in world live in tropics, and the new climate shifts will be outside their parents' and grandparents' experience."
Pimm added: "The past is no longer prologue."
As climate change has begun to make traditional habitats less hospitable for various species, they have moved to cooler places or higher altitudes. But in the tropics, there are far fewer opportunities for plants and animals to do that, Pimm said.
"They can't so easily disperse to get to that comfort level again," Pimm said. "So given that, there's a very, very severe worry about this will do to species in the tropics."
Follow me on Twitter @neelaeast


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Belkin N300 Wireless USB Adapter
Connect your laptop or desktop computer to your wireless network
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Connect your computer to your modem or router without any cables. Simply insert the setup CD, run the software setup and plug the adapter into a USB port on your computer, and you're ready to connect to the Internet from anywhere in your home.
Get wireless speeds ideal for surfing, emailing and instant messaging—up to 300Mbps.*
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WEP and WPA/WPA2 security protocols and Wi-Fi Protected Setup (WPS) let you configure and secure your connection.
Backward-compatible with 802.11g devices at 54 Mbps and 802.11b products at 11 Mbps, the N300 Wireless USB Adapter can connect to older wireless networks and hotspots as well as newer 802.11n networks and wireless-N devices that offer increased range and speed.
*The standard transmission rates—300Mbps, 54Mbps, and 11Mbps—are the physical data rates. Actual data throughput will be lower and may depend on the mix of wireless products used.
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Our Price: $37.00


text:
Faschionism did a great feature on Adafruit's wearables department called "Twinkle Twinkle Little Star". We love it when people who were not previously into electronics get started with our tutorials and learn system!
I've loved science fiction and cyberpunk for as long as I can remember, and while I am primarily a book geek I have a huge soft spot for futuristic films and their fashion. There's just something about the intersection of style and the utilitarian that gets me every time; lycra catsuits masquerading as smart fabric, aggressive silhouettes, the open guts of technology next to careful seams and tucks. With that in mind it's not at all surprising that I fell head over heals for Anouk Wipprecht's Spiderdress . I was a teenager in the 90's and so cannot be swayed by mood rings or heat reactive fabrics, but the Spiderdress was the kind of thing that I'd been dreaming of for years.
It's also not available for purchase (I suspect the price would make me faint even if it was) and much too far out of my skill range to re-create.
Fast forward through the visions of me intermittently sobbing and screaming at YouTube all the way to 2013 when Adafruit launched FLORA, their first wearable electronics platform. While it doesn't mean that I can build creepy robot legs to keep people away from me, the components (batteries aside) are entirely waterproof which makes them functional for everyday use as you can wash whatever you make without having to take it apart first. While the pieces are on the whole purchased separately rather than in kits, Adafruit have a range of really interesting projects and suggestions on their website.
Each project comes with a full tutorial including circuit diagrams and the code required to make it work, they even include notes on which parts to change and how for different effects. What I consider to be the most exciting bit is that a reasonable number of the projects don't require any soldering since all the components can be connected with conductive thread. FLORA is not branded in pink and nothing in the comprehensive guides makes me feel stupid for not knowing some of the basic skills for working with electronics such as, for example, how to solder. But the real clincher for me was that it's all marketed as awesome. Even the basic projects look great, the Space Face LED Galaxy Makeup would look fabulous with anything in nebula print and I've got my eye on the Sparkle Skirt Project.


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Value-at-Risk Estimation and Backtesting
This example shows how to estimate the value-at-risk (VaR) using three methods and perform a VaR backtesting analysis. The three methods are:
Normal distribution
Historical simulation
Exponential weighted moving average (EWMA)
Value-at-risk is a statistical method that quantifies the risk level associated with a portfolio. The VaR measures the maximum amount of loss over a specified time horizon and at a given confidence level.
Backtesting measures the accuracy of the VaR calculations. Using VaR methods, the loss forecast is calculated and then compared to the actual losses at the end of the next day. The degree of difference between the predicted and actual losses indicates whether the VaR model is underestimating or overestimating the risk. As such, backtesting looks retrospectively at data and helps to assess the VaR model.
The three estimation methods used in this example estimate the VaR at 95% and 99% confidence levels.
Load the Data and Define the Test Window
Load the data. The data used in this example is from a time series of returns on the S&P index from 1993 through 2003.
load VaRExampleData.mat
Returns = tick2ret(sp);
DateReturns = dates(2:end);
SampleSize = length(Returns);
Define the estimation window as 250 trading days. The test window starts on the first day in 1996 and runs through the end of the sample.
TestWindowStart = find(year(DateReturns)==1996,1); TestWindow = TestWindowStart : SampleSize; EstimationWindowSize = 250;
For a VaR confidence level of 95% and 99%, set the complement of the VaR level.
pVaR = [0.05 0.01];
These values mean that there is at most a 5% and 1% probability, respectively, that the loss incurred will be greater than the maximum threshold (that is, greater than the VaR).
Compute the VaR Using the Normal Distribution Method
For the normal distribution method, assume that the profit and loss of the portfolio is normally distributed. Using this assumption, compute the VaR by multiplying the z-score, at each confidence level by the standard deviation of the returns. Because VaR backtesting looks retrospectively at data, the VaR "today" is computed based on values of the returns in the last N = 250 days leading to, but not including, "today."
Zscore = norminv(pVaR); Normal95 = zeros(length(TestWindow),1); Normal99 = zeros(length(TestWindow),1); for t = TestWindow i = t - TestWindowStart + 1; EstimationWindow = t-EstimationWindowSize:t-1; Sigma = std(Returns(EstimationWindow)); Normal95(i) = -Zscore(1)*Sigma; Normal99(i) = -Zscore(2)*Sigma; end figure; plot(DateReturns(TestWindow),[Normal95 Normal99]) xlabel('Date') ylabel('VaR') legend({'95% Confidence Level','99% Confidence Level'},'Location','Best') title('VaR Estimation Using the Normal Distribution Method')
The normal distribution method is also known as parametric VaR because its estimation involves computing a parameter for the standard deviation of the returns. The advantage of the normal distribution method is its simplicity. However, the weakness of the normal distribution method is the assumption that returns are normally distributed. Another name for the normal distribution method is the variance-covariance approach.
Compute the VaR Using the Historical Simulation Method
Unlike the normal distribution method, the historical simulation (HS) is a nonparametric method. It does not assume a particular distribution of the asset returns. Historical simulation forecasts risk by assuming that past profits and losses can be used as the distribution of profits and losses for the next period of returns. The VaR "today" is computed as the p th-quantile of the last N returns prior to "today."
Historical95 = zeros(length(TestWindow),1); Historical99 = zeros(length(TestWindow),1); for t = TestWindow i = t - TestWindowStart + 1; EstimationWindow = t-EstimationWindowSize:t-1; X = Returns(EstimationWindow); Historical95(i) = -quantile(X,pVaR(1)); Historical99(i) = -quantile(X,pVaR(2)); end figure; plot(DateReturns(TestWindow),[Historical95 Historical99]) ylabel('VaR') xlabel('Date') legend({'95% Confidence Level','99% Confidence Level'},'Location','Best') title('VaR Estimation Using the Historical Simulation Method')
The preceding figure shows that the historical simulation curve has a piecewise constant profile. The reason for this is that quantiles do not change for several days until extreme events occur. Thus, the historical simulation method is slow to react to changes in volatility.
Compute the VaR Using the Exponential Weighted Moving Average Method (EWMA)
The first two VaR methods assume that all past returns carry the same weight. The exponential weighted moving average (EWMA) method assigns nonequal weights, particularly exponentially decreasing weights. The most recent returns have higher weights because they influence "today's" return more heavily than returns further in the past. The formula for the EWMA variance over an estimation window of size is:
where is a normalizing constant:
For convenience, we assume an infinitely large estimation window to approximate the variance:
A value of the decay factor frequently used in practice is 0.94. This is the value used in this example. For more information, see References.
Initiate the EWMA using a warm-up phase to set up the standard deviation.
Lambda = 0.94; Sigma2 = zeros(length(Returns),1); Sigma2(1) = Returns(1)^2; for i = 2 : (TestWindowStart-1) Sigma2(i) = (1-Lambda) * Returns(i-1)^2 + Lambda * Sigma2(i-1); end
Use the EWMA in the test window to estimate the VaR.
Zscore = norminv(pVaR); EWMA95 = zeros(length(TestWindow),1); EWMA99 = zeros(length(TestWindow),1); for t = TestWindow k = t - TestWindowStart + 1; Sigma2(t) = (1-Lambda) * Returns(t-1)^2 + Lambda * Sigma2(t-1); Sigma = sqrt(Sigma2(t)); EWMA95(k) = -Zscore(1)*Sigma; EWMA99(k) = -Zscore(2)*Sigma; end figure; plot(DateReturns(TestWindow),[EWMA95 EWMA99]) ylabel('VaR') xlabel('Date') legend({'95% Confidence Level','99% Confidence Level'},'Location','Best') title('VaR Estimation Using the EWMA Method')
In the preceding figure, the EWMA reacts very quickly to periods of large (or small) returns.
VaR Backtesting
In the first part of this example, VaR was estimated over the test window with three different methods and at two different VaR confidence levels. The goal of VaR backtesting is to evaluate the performance of VaR models. A VaR estimate at 95% confidence is violated only about 5% of the time, and VaR failures do not cluster. Clustering of VaR failures indicates the lack of independence across time because the VaR models are slow to react to changing market conditions.
A common first step in VaR backtesting analysis is to plot the returns and the VaR estimates together. Plot all three methods at the 95% confidence level and compare them to the returns.
ReturnsTest = Returns(TestWindow); DatesTest = DateReturns(TestWindow); figure; plot(DatesTest,[ReturnsTest -Normal95 -Historical95 -EWMA95]) ylabel('VaR') xlabel('Date') legend({'Returns','Normal','Historical','EWMA'},'Location','Best') title('Comparison of returns and VaR at 95% for different models')
To highlight how the different approaches react differently to changing market conditions, you can zoom in on the time series where there is a large and sudden change in the value of returns. For example, around August 1998:
ZoomInd = (DatesTest >= datetime(1998,8,5)) & (DatesTest <= datetime(1998,10,31)); VaRData = [-Normal95(ZoomInd) -Historical95(ZoomInd) -EWMA95(ZoomInd)]; VaRFormat = {'-','--','-.'}; D = DatesTest(ZoomInd); R = ReturnsTest(ZoomInd); N = Normal95(ZoomInd); H = Historical95(ZoomInd); E = EWMA95(ZoomInd); IndN95 = (R < -N); IndHS95 = (R < -H); IndEWMA95 = (R < -E); figure; bar(D,R,0.5,'FaceColor',[0.7 0.7 0.7]); hold on for i = 1 : size(VaRData,2) stairs(D-0.5,VaRData(:,i),VaRFormat{i}); end ylabel('VaR') xlabel('Date') legend({'Returns','Normal','Historical','EWMA'},'Location','Best','AutoUpdate','Off') title('95% VaR violations for different models') ax = gca; ax.ColorOrderIndex = 1; plot(D(IndN95),-N(IndN95),'o',D(IndHS95),-H(IndHS95),'o',... D(IndEWMA95),-E(IndEWMA95),'o','MarkerSize',8,'LineWidth',1.5) xlim([D(1)-1, D(end)+1]) hold off;
A VaR failure or violation happens when the returns have a negative VaR. A closer look around August 27 to August 31 shows a significant dip in the returns. On the dates starting from August 27 onward, the EWMA follows the trend of the returns closely and more accurately. Consequently, EWMA has fewer VaR violations (two (2) violations, yellow diamonds) compared to the Normal Distribution approach (seven (7) violations, blue stars) or the Historical Simulation method (eight (8) violations, red squares).
Besides visual tools, you can use statistical tests for VaR backtesting. In Risk Management Toolbox™, a varbacktest
object supports multiple statistical tests for VaR backtesting analysis. In this example, start by comparing the different test results for the normal distribution approach at the 95% and 99% VaR levels.
vbt = varbacktest(ReturnsTest,[Normal95 Normal99],'PortfolioID','S&P','VaRID',... {'Normal95','Normal99'},'VaRLevel',[0.95 0.99]); summary(vbt)
ans=2×10 table
PortfolioID VaRID VaRLevel ObservedLevel Observations Failures Expected Ratio FirstFailure Missing
___________ __________ ________ _____________ ____________ ________ ________ ______ ____________ _______
"S&P" "Normal95" 0.95 0.94863 1966 101 98.3 1.0275 7 0
"S&P" "Normal99" 0.99 0.98372 1966 32 19.66 1.6277 7 0
The summary report shows that the observed level is close enough to the defined VaR level. The 95% and 99% VaR levels have at most (1-VaR_level) x
expected failures, where N is the number of observations. The failure ratio shows that the Normal95
VaR level is within range, whereas the Normal99
VaR Level is imprecise and under-forecasts the risk. To run all tests supported in varbacktest
, use runtests
ans=2×11 table
PortfolioID VaRID VaRLevel TL Bin POF TUFF CC CCI TBF TBFI
___________ __________ ________ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______
"S&P" "Normal95" 0.95 green accept accept accept accept reject reject reject
"S&P" "Normal99" 0.99 yellow reject reject accept reject accept reject reject
The 95% VaR passes the frequency tests, such as traffic light, binomial and proportion of failures tests (tl
, bin
, and pof
columns). The 99% VaR does not pass these same tests, as indicated by the yellow
and reject
results. Both confidence levels got rejected in the conditional coverage independence, and time between failures independence (cci
and tbfi
columns). This result suggests that the VaR violations are not independent, and there are probably periods with multiple failures in a short span. Also, one failure may make it more likely that other failures will follow in subsequent days. For more information on the tests methodologies and the interpretation of results, see varbacktest
and the individual tests.
Using a varbacktest
object, run the same tests on the portfolio for the three approaches at both VaR confidence levels.
vbt = varbacktest(ReturnsTest,[Normal95 Historical95 EWMA95 Normal99 Historical99 ... EWMA99],'PortfolioID','S&P','VaRID',{'Normal95','Historical95','EWMA95',... 'Normal99','Historical99','EWMA99'},'VaRLevel',[0.95 0.95 0.95 0.99 0.99 0.99]); runtests(vbt)
ans=6×11 table
PortfolioID VaRID VaRLevel TL Bin POF TUFF CC CCI TBF TBFI
___________ ______________ ________ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______
"S&P" "Normal95" 0.95 green accept accept accept accept reject reject reject
"S&P" "Historical95" 0.95 yellow accept accept accept accept accept reject reject
"S&P" "EWMA95" 0.95 green accept accept accept accept accept reject reject
"S&P" "Normal99" 0.99 yellow reject reject accept reject accept reject reject
"S&P" "Historical99" 0.99 yellow reject reject accept reject accept reject reject
"S&P" "EWMA99" 0.99 red reject reject accept reject accept reject reject
The results are similar to the previous results, and at the 95% level, the frequency results are generally acceptable. However, the frequency results at the 99% level are generally rejections. Regarding independence, most tests pass the conditional coverage independence test (cci
), which tests for independence on consecutive days. Notice that all tests fail the time between failures independence test (tbfi
), which takes into account the times between all failures. This result suggests that all methods have issues with the independence assumption.
To better understand how these results change given market conditions, look at the years 2000 and 2002 for the 95% VaR confidence level.
Ind2000 = (year(DatesTest) == 2000); vbt2000 = varbacktest(ReturnsTest(Ind2000),[Normal95(Ind2000) Historical95(Ind2000) EWMA95(Ind2000)],... 'PortfolioID','S&P, 2000','VaRID',{'Normal','Historical','EWMA'}); runtests(vbt2000)
ans=3×11 table
PortfolioID VaRID VaRLevel TL Bin POF TUFF CC CCI TBF TBFI
___________ ____________ ________ _____ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______
"S&P, 2000" "Normal" 0.95 green accept accept accept accept accept accept accept
"S&P, 2000" "Historical" 0.95 green accept accept accept accept accept accept accept
"S&P, 2000" "EWMA" 0.95 green accept accept accept accept accept accept accept
Ind2002 = (year(DatesTest) == 2002); vbt2002 = varbacktest(ReturnsTest(Ind2002),[Normal95(Ind2002) Historical95(Ind2002) EWMA95(Ind2002)],... 'PortfolioID','S&P, 2002','VaRID',{'Normal','Historical','EWMA'}); runtests(vbt2002)
ans=3×11 table
PortfolioID VaRID VaRLevel TL Bin POF TUFF CC CCI TBF TBFI
___________ ____________ ________ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______
"S&P, 2002" "Normal" 0.95 yellow reject reject accept reject reject reject reject
"S&P, 2002" "Historical" 0.95 yellow reject accept accept reject reject reject reject
"S&P, 2002" "EWMA" 0.95 green accept accept accept accept reject reject reject
For the year 2000, all three methods pass all the tests. However, for the year 2002, the test results are mostly rejections for all methods. The EWMA method seems to perform better in 2002, yet all methods fail the independence tests.
To get more insight into the independence tests, look into the conditional coverage independence (cci
) and the time between failures independence (tbfi
) test details for the year 2002. To access the test details for all tests, run the individual test functions.
ans=3×13 table
PortfolioID VaRID VaRLevel CCI LRatioCCI PValueCCI Observations Failures N00 N10 N01 N11 TestLevel
___________ ____________ ________ ______ _________ _________ ____________ ________ ___ ___ ___ ___ _________
"S&P, 2002" "Normal" 0.95 reject 12.591 0.0003877 261 21 225 14 14 7 0.95
"S&P, 2002" "Historical" 0.95 reject 6.3051 0.012039 261 20 225 15 15 5 0.95
"S&P, 2002" "EWMA" 0.95 reject 4.6253 0.031504 261 14 235 11 11 3 0.95
In the CCI test, the probability p 01
of having a failure at time t, knowing that there was no failure at time t-1 is given by
The probability p 11
of having a failure at time t, knowing that there was failure at time t-1 is given by
From the N00
columns in the test results, the value of p 01
is at around 5% for the three methods, yet the values of p 11
are above 20%. Because there is evidence that a failure is followed by another failure much more frequently than 5% of the time, this CCI test fails.
In the time between failures independence test, look at the minimum, maximum, and quartiles of the distribution of times between failures, in the columns TBFMin
, TBFMax
ans=3×14 table
PortfolioID VaRID VaRLevel TBFI LRatioTBFI PValueTBFI Observations Failures TBFMin TBFQ1 TBFQ2 TBFQ3 TBFMax TestLevel
___________ ____________ ________ ______ __________ __________ ____________ ________ ______ _____ _____ _____ ______ _________
"S&P, 2002" "Normal" 0.95 reject 53.936 0.00010087 261 21 1 1 5 17 48 0.95
"S&P, 2002" "Historical" 0.95 reject 45.274 0.0010127 261 20 1 1.5 5.5 17 48 0.95
"S&P, 2002" "EWMA" 0.95 reject 25.756 0.027796 261 14 1 4 7.5 20 48 0.95
For a VaR level of 95%, you expect an average time between failures of 20 days, or one failure every 20 days. However, the median of the time between failures for the year 2002 ranges between 5 and 7.5 for the three methods. This result suggests that half of the time, two consecutive failures occur within 5 to 7 days, much more frequently than the 20 expected days. Consequently, more test failures occur. For the normal method, the first quartile is 1, meaning that 25% of the failures occur on consecutive days.
Nieppola, O. Backtesting Value-at-Risk Models. Helsinki School of Economics. 2009.
Danielsson, J. Financial Risk Forecasting: The Theory and Practice of Forecasting Market Risk, with Implementation in R and MATLAB®. Wiley Finance, 2012.
See Also
| tl
| bin
| pof
| tuff
| cc
| cci
| tbf
| tbfi
| summary
| runtests
| select
| plot
| exceptions
| append


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"This study marks the first time a peptide treatment has been delivered through nasal passageways to treat depression," says Dr. Liu, Professor in the University of Toronto's Department of Psychiatry.
A nasal spray that delivers a peptide to treat depression holds promise as a potential alternative therapeutic approach, research from the Centre for Addiction and Mental Health (CAMH) shows.
The study, led by CAMH's Dr. Fang Liu, is published online in Neuropsychopharmacology.
In a previous study published in Nature Medicine in 2010, Dr. Liu developed a protein peptide that provided a highly targeted approach to treating depression that she hopes will have minimal side effects. The peptide was just as effective in relieving symptoms when compared to a conventional antidepressant in animal testing. However, the peptide had to be injected into the brain. Taken orally, it would not cross the blood-brain barrier in sufficient concentrations.
"Clinically, we needed to find a non-invasive, convenient method to deliver this peptide treatment," says Dr. Liu, Senior Scientist in the Campbell Family Mental Health Research Institute at CAMH. With the support of a Proof of Principle grant from the Canadian Institutes of Health Research (CIHR), Dr. Liu's team was able to further explore novel delivery methods.
The nasal delivery system, developed by U.S. company Impel NeuroPharma, was shown to deliver the peptide to the right part of the brain. It also relieved depression-like symptoms in animals.
The peptide treatment interferes with the binding of two dopamine receptors - the D1 and D2 receptor complex. Dr. Liu's team had found that this binding was higher in the brains of people with major depression. Disrupting the binding led to the anti-depressant effects.
The peptide is an entirely new approach to treating depression, which has previously relied on medications that primarily block serotonin or norepinephrine transporters.
Depression, the most common form of mental illness, is one of the leading causes of disability globally. More than 50 per cent of people living with depression do not respond to first-line medication treatment.
"This research brings us one step closer to clinical trials," says Dr. Liu. In ongoing lab research, her team is experimenting to determine if they can make the peptide break down more slowly, and travel more quickly in the brain, to improve its anti-depressant effects.
Source material from Centre for Addiction and Mental Health


text:
Recreating the Wright Stuff
A full-scale replica of the historic 1903 Wright Flyer was constructed and delivered to NASA's Ames Research Center at Moffett Field, Calif., for wind-tunnel testing during the spring of 1999. During the tests, engineers studied the biplane's stability, control, and handling at speeds up to 27 knots (30 mph) in the wind tunnel. The data obtained was used to build a second Wright Flyer, which was to be flown flown at Kitty Hawk, N.C., on Dec. 17, 2003, on the 100th anniversary of the first flight. Bad weather prevented pilot Kevin Kochersberger from completing the reenactment.
Constructed by a team of volunteers from the Los Angeles section of the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA), using plans provided by the Smithsonian, the replica features a 40-foot, 4-inch wingspan reinforced with piano wire, cotton wing coverings, spruce propellers, and a double rudder. The second Flyer, with some modifications for safety, was built by the team of volunteers from the AIAA.
Although others had created "flying machines" before them that could barely lift off the ground and were incapable of true flight, the Wright brothers painstakingly worked four years to construct the first power-driven, human-carrying craft that was heavier than air and capable of controlled, sustained flight. After many trials and setbacks, the former bicycle mechanics from Dayton, Ohio, flew into history in their double-winged craft on Dec. 17, 1903, with Orville at the controls and Wilbur running alongside him. The era of the air age began, and the world was never the same. Their invention would create a new industry and revolutionize transportation, commerce, and communication throughout the globe.
In December 1998, President Clinton signed into law the Centennial of Flight Commemoration Act, which established a commission to coordinate the celebration in 2003 of the 100th anniversary of the Wright Brothers' first flight.


text:
(Getty Images)
By Anne Harding
MONDAY, Feb. 1, 2010 (Health.com) — If you're trying to quit smoking, wearing a nicotine patch for up to six months—far longer than is generally recommended—may increase your chances of staying smoke-free, a new study has found.
Even with the longer treatment, however, your chances of successfully quitting are only about 1 in 7, according to the study, which was funded by the National Cancer Institute and the National Institute on Drug Abuse.
"There's an assumption that nicotine dependence is an acute disease that can be treated with short-term therapy," says Caryn Lerman, PhD, one of the study's authors and the director of the Tobacco Use Research Center at the University of Pennsylvania. "Smokers should talk to their health-care provider about whether it makes sense for them to continue on the nicotine patch for an extended period of time as an alternative to returning to smoking."
The patch reduces cravings and withdrawal symptoms by releasing a slow and steady dose of nicotine through the skin. The latest guidelines from the U.S. Public Health Service recommend that smokers who are trying to quit use the patch for eight weeks or less, although some brands of patches are designed to be used for up to 10 weeks.
In the new study, published this week in the Annals of Internal Medicine, 568 adult smokers who were otherwise healthy wore a 21-milligram nicotine patch (Nicoderm CQ brand) for eight weeks. At that point, half of the smokers continued to wear the nicotine patch for an additional 16 weeks, while the others wore an identical placebo patch for the same amount of time.
After 24 weeks, 32% of the participants who received the nicotine patch for the duration hadn't smoked in the previous week, compared to just 20% of those who received the placebo patch. (Whether the participants had smoked that week was verified by checking a breath sample for carbon monoxide.)
Related links:
- Common Smoking Triggers—and How to Fight Them
- 97 Reasons to Quit Smoking
- Gum vs. the Patch: Which Is Right for You?
The longer nicotine treatment also proved more effective when a stricter measure of quitting was used. At the 24-week mark, 19% of the people who wore the patch throughout hadn't smoked even one cigarette since quitting, compared to 13% in the placebo group.
People who wore the patch for a full 24 weeks were also more inclined to try to quit again if they temporarily fell off the wagon, the researchers found. "If somebody has a slip and smokes a few puffs or even has a whole cigarette, they'll be more likely to return to abstinence if they're on the nicotine patch," Lerman says.
After one year, however, there was no significant difference between the two groups in the percentage of study participants who remained smoke-free. Just 14% of the people in either group hadn't smoked a cigarette in the previous week—underscoring just how hard it is to kick the nicotine habit.
Next page: Many experts now believe 8 to 10 weeks is insufficient
Many smoking-cessation experts have come to believe that wearing the patch for 8 to 10 weeks is insufficient for most smokers. In its 2008 guidelines, the U.S. Public Health Service called for more research into the effectiveness of longer-term nicotine replacement therapy. Lerman and her colleagues are now conducting another study in which quitting smokers will wear the patch for an entire year.
There's no evidence that wearing the patch for an extended period is unsafe, says Robert A. Schnoll, PhD, the lead author of the current study. The two groups of participants in the study showed no significant differences in side effects, he points out. And, Scholl says, "Everyone would agree that it's safer than smoking."
Nicotine patches deliver a relatively pure dose of the drug, while cigarettes contain chemical additives that have been shown to cause cancer.
Jonathan Foulds, PhD, the director of the Tobacco Dependence Program at the University of Medicine and Dentistry of New Jersey, in New Brunswick, says the study's findings should prompt experts to reconsider how they help people quit smoking.
"We should tailor the duration of pharmaceutical treatment for smoking cessation to the client's needs, rather than what the box says," says Foulds, who wasn't involved in the study. "It's clear that what the box says may not be long enough for some patients."
Foulds has his patients stay on the patch until they go a full two weeks without any cigarette cravings or withdrawal symptoms. At that point, he weans them off the patch by using progressively smaller sizes.
"There's nothing magical about 24 weeks," he says. "The point is that staying on [nicotine replacement therapy] helps you stay off cigarettes—and, it seems, the longer the better."
Every smoker is different, according to Lerman. Some can quit with brief treatment, she says, but others will need to stick with nicotine replacement therapy for a longer time. People who experience very severe withdrawal symptoms, for example, are likely to be better off with longer-term use, she says.


text:
By Maidhc Ó Cathail
In the course of his much-ridiculed albeit deadly serious ACME bomb speech to the U.N. General Assembly, Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu asserted that "the medieval forces of radical Islam" stand in the way of Israel's desire for "a Middle East of progress and peace." As evidence of these freedom-hating, anti-modern forces supposedly "bent on world conquest," Netanyahu cited the Sept. 11 besieging of U.S. embassies throughout the region.
The Israeli prime minister was repeating a theme he had been given the opportunity to develop earlier in an interview on prime-time American television. Addressed by NBC's "Meet the Press" host David Gregory as "the leader of the Jewish people" (Gregory himself is Jewish), Netanyahu was asked whether he thought a "containment strategy" would work on Iran, as it had with the Soviet Union. Iran was different, Netanyahu responded, because its "rationality" could not be relied upon since it is "guided by a leadership with an unbelievable fanaticism." To emphasize the purported threat of nuclear-armed mullahs in Tehran, the Israeli leader drew a terrifying mental picture for his American audience: "It's the same fanaticism that you see storming your embassies today. You want these fanatics to have nuclear weapons?"
While there is much controversy about the reasons for the assaults on U.S. diplomatic missions on the 11th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks, widespread Muslim outrage over a YouTube video insulting the Prophet Muhammad was clearly a factor in triggering at least some of the ensuing anti-American riots. In light of Netanyahu's subsequent emphasis on these vivid examples of "fanaticism" to advance the narrative of an Iranian "nuclear threat" in an increasingly unstable region in which Tel Aviv remains Washington's "one reliable ally," it's certainly worth exploring whether the deliberately offensive anti-Islam video may have been the work of pro-Israel provocateurs. As former national security adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski said on NBC's "Morning Joe" regarding what position America should take toward the Muslim world, "If there are evil forces at work trying to provoke violence between us and you, we have the obligation to investigate and to crack down."
In what appears to have been an artfully contrived red herring, initial reports did indeed point to an Israeli source of the provocative video. The Wall Street Journal and Associated Press—two media outlets often accused of pro-Israel bias—were suspiciously credulous of someone claiming to be an Israeli-American real estate developer who said he was the writer and director of "Innocence of Muslims." This "Sam Bacile" gratuitously added that the production had been funded by "about 100 Jewish donors." Almost immediately, the dubious story was debunked by The Atlantic's Jeffrey Goldberg—a former prison guard in the Israel Defense Forces whose reporting has at key junctures served to advance Tel Aviv's interests—when a self-described "militant Christian activist" named Steve Klein assured him that "the State of Israel is not involved." Absolving the Jewish state of any culpability, Klein eagerly pointed the finger at Egyptian Copts and American evangelicals. A self-satisfied Goldberg summed up the story in a tweet: "A group of Christians smearing Muslims libels Jews."
Notwithstanding Goldberg's terse dismissal of an Israeli connection, the Jew-libeling Christians actually turned out to have close ties to the pro-Israel Islamophobia network led by Pamela Geller and Robert Spencer. Spencer's Jihad Watch group has been indirectly funded by Aubrey Chernick, a Los Angeles-based software security entrepreneur and former trustee of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, the influential think tank created in 1985 by the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC). Spencer's provocative writings on Islam are also publicized by The Gatestone Institute, whose founder and director Nina Rosenwald has held leadership positions in AIPAC and other mainstream pro-Israel organizations. In a July 2012 profile in The Nation magazine, Max Blumenthal dubbed the heiress to the Sears Roebuck fortune "The Sugar Mama of Anti-Islam Hate."
This past February, in a post on her Atlas Shrugs blog entitled "A Movie about Muhammad: An Idea whose Time Has Come," Geller solicited funds for a film that would show "Muhammad's raids, plunders, massacres, rapes, assassinations and other crimes." According to the controversial pro-Israel provocateur, it was "a brilliant idea" by Ali Sina, whom she introduced as a "renowned ex-Muslim author, founder of FaithFreedom.org and SION Board member." SION, whose similarity to Zion is hardly coincidental, stands for "Stop Islamization of Nations," a group co-founded by Geller and Spencer which held its inaugural International World Freedom Congress in New York on Sept. 11 "to combat the Islamic supremacist war against free speech." Ali Sina's solicitation for funds assured readers of Geller's blog that "given the subject matter" it could become "one of the most seen motion pictures ever." Revealingly, he asked them, "Recall Danish cartoons?"—an earlier media-catalyzed provocation in which pro-Israel, anti-Islam propagandists such as Daniel Pipes cited freedom of speech as they incited Muslim outrage against the West.
Two years earlier, on the ninth anniversary of 9/11, Geller and her partners-in-provocation held a rally to protest the construction of an Islamic community center a few blocks from the site of the demolished World Trade Center. Among those who took part were a couple of extremist Coptic Christian activists who would later be involved in the making and distribution of "Innocence of Muslims." Meanwhile, in the nation's capital, another Egyptian-American named Morris Sadek was filmed with a crucifix in one hand and in the other a Bible with the American flag sticking out of it, shouting "Islam is evil!"
As McClatchey reported on Sept. 15, it was Sadek who had triggered the anti-American outrage in the Muslim world with a timely phone call to an Egyptian reporter. On Sept. 4, the Washington, DC-based provocateur phoned Gamel Girgis, who covers Christian emigrants for the al Youm al Sabaa daily newspaper, to tell him about a movie he had produced. According to Girgis, Sadek wanted to screen it on Sept. 11 "to reveal what was behind the terrorists' actions that day—Islam."
As with most of the mainstream media's coverage of the post-Bacile story, the McClatchey report made no mention of Morris Sadek's ties to the Geller-Spencer Islamophobia network or his extreme pro-Israel views. On his blog dedicated to the "National American Coptic Assembly"—of which he describes himself as "a president"—Sadek provides an erratically punctuated outline of what he claims should be "The Coptic Position on Israel":
We recognize the sacred right of the state of Israel and the Israeli people to the land of historic Israel.
"The right of Return" of the Jewish people to the land of their foremothers and forefathers is a sacred right. It has no statute of limitation. The return must continue to enrich the Middle East.
We recognize Jerusalem as simply a Jewish city, It must never be divided. She is, and shall always be, the united capital of Israel.
The future of the Palestinians lies with the Arab states. A Palestinian state in Judea and Samaria constitute an imminent danger to world peace.
The Chantilly, Virginia-based National American Coptic Assembly, Inc., a private company with a staff of two, has an estimated annual revenue of $97,000. Considering the fawning pro-Israel statements of its principal—not to mention his priceless contribution to Netanyahu's relentless campaign to induce a U.S. attack on the "fanatics" in Tehran—it's not too difficult to speculate as to the most likely source of that income.


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Sweetwater, the third largest retailer of music instruments and pro-audio in the U.S., will present GearFest '13, a celebration of musicians and the instruments and equipment they use to make music.
Ft. Wayne, IN (May 15, 2013) -- Sweetwater, the third largest retailer of music instruments and pro-audio in the U.S., will present GearFest '13, a celebration of musicians and the instruments and equipment they use to make music. GearFest '13 takes place on Friday, June 21st from 9 a.m. to 6 p.m., and Saturday, June 22nd from 9 a.m. to 5 p.m., at 5501 US Hwy 30 W, Fort Wayne, Indiana. GearFest is free and open to the public.
Part trade show, part entertainment event, part flea market, and part musicians' toyland, GearFest offers something for everyone!
There will also be an indoor/outdoor festival featuring live music, delicious food, amazing prizes, and lots of fun for the entire family. This year's expo is bigger than ever, with two days full of dozens of informative workshops and seminars, scores of manufacturer exhibits, musical performances, and special surprises!
Sweetwater Founder and President Chuck Surack remarked, "We are proud to offer this event every year. It continues to grow, and there's literally nothing like it elsewhere in the country. There's certainly nothing this big, with so many great attractions, that is also free and open to the public. That's why people come to GearFest, from throughout the Midwest, and from around the entire country.
To speed up the registration process at the festival, you can pre-register online; visit: https://www.sweetwater.com/feature/gearfest2013/register.php. For more information, call (800) 222-4700.
An event as big as GearFest demands an equally big giveaway of free gear! Our vendors have provided more than $45,000 in gear that will be awarded to lucky GearFest attendees. Hourly prizes will be given away from over 30 top manufacturers, such as Avid, Line 6, Antelope, Fishman, Apogee, Moog, Mojave, Orange, Ampeg, Washburn, Taylor, Lakland, Chandler, Kush Audio, Rode, Sonodyne, Maag Audio, Pigtronix, and many more! You must attend GearFest and register in person in order to win.
In addition, Sweetwater will be offering once-in-a-lifetime sale pricing on many products.
GearFest '13 will host a multitude of guests from all areas of the music industry for exciting performances and workshops. This year's featured speakers include guitarist Bill Kelliher, bass player Billy Sheehan, drummer Terry Bozzio, record producer Jack Douglas, producer/engineer Frank Filipetti, power pop band Fountains of Wayne, producer/engineer Fab Dupont, mixer Chris Lord-Alge, and many others.
The entire GearFest '13 schedule of events is available online at: https://www.sweetwater.com/feature/gearfest2013/workshops.php.
Musicians will enjoy a free guitar setup and restringing service, plus a musicians' flea market, where used equipment can be bought, sold, or traded. To pre-register to sell equipment at the flea market, call (260) 432-8176.
More than 200 manufacturers of musical instruments, music technology, and audio equipment will be on hand to give musicians a look at the latest gear. This rare opportunity will feature over 35 guitar gear manufacturers, more than 45 recording equipment vendors, 20 software publishers, 20 microphone makers, and much more!
Other attractions will include hourly giveaway drawings for thousands of dollars of equipment and instruments, plus tours of Sweetwater's world-class recording studios and headquarters.
For more information:


text:
A Second Chance
There is a special day in the Jewish calendar which is hardly noticed. No mitzvot are performed and there is no ban on labor. The only thing that sets it apart from very other weekday is the omission of the tachanun prayer.
This week we experienced such a day on the fourteenth day of the month of Iyar. This was the day during the time of the Beit Hamikdash when those Jews who failed to offer the Korban Pesach on time a month earlier were given a second chance to do so.
There is a very important lesson to be learned from this. The Torah teaches us that those whose spiritual impurity prevented them from offering a Korban Pesach along with the rest of the community on the fourteenth of the month of Nissan cried out "Why should we be left out?" Their passionate desire to offer their sacrifice was rewarded by Heaven with a second chance a month later.
We live in an era of search. Uninformed Jews of all ages and in all lands are searching for a connection with G-d and His chosen people. Those who truly cry out "Why should we be left out?" are finding that Heaven is giving them a second chance to make that connection.
Taking advantage of that second chance is what will secure Israel forever.


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Naples man dies after experiencing medical episode while drivingCollier County man crashes into canal after police chase
Emma Morano, thought to be the world's oldest person and the last to be born in the 1800s, reacts in front of her 117th birthday cake in Verbania, northern Italy November 29, 2016. REUTERS/Alessandro Garofalo ROME (CBS NEWS) Emma Morano, at 117 the world's oldest person who is also believed to have been the last surviving person born in the 1800s, died Saturday at her home in northern Italy, her physician said. Dr. Carlo Bava told The Associated Press by phone that Morano's caretaker had called him to say she had stopped breathing in the afternoon while sitting in an armchair at her home in Verbania, a town on Italy's Lake Maggiore. Bava said he had last seen his patient on Friday when "she thanked me and held my hand," as she did every time he called on her. While Morano had been increasingly spending more time sleeping and less time speaking in recent weeks, she had eaten her daily raw egg and biscuits that day, he said. Bava also lives in Verbania and had been her physician for nearly a quarter of a century. Morano, born on Nov. 29, 1899, had been living in a tidy, one-room apartment, where she was kept company by her caregiver and two elderly nieces. "She didn't suffer. I'm happy she didn't suffer but passed away that way, tranquilly," Bava said. He said she had been her usual chatterbox self until a few weeks ago. "She was slowly fading away," Bava said. Bava has previously told the AP that Morano lost a son to crib death when he was six months old and left her husband in the first-half of the last century after he beat her. Morano "abandoned the husband in the Fascist era, when women were supposed to be very submissive," Bava said in a 2015 interview. "She was always very decisive." Morano went on to support herself by working in a factory making jute bags, then at a hotel, working way beyond the usual retirement age. She also defied health advice, Bava said Saturday. Some doctors had warned her against eating three eggs daily, which she did for years, but she ignored their advice.


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Orange Scented Gluten-Free Irish Soda Bread
I do believe.
Mid January confession (now that we're half way to February and red hearts are sprouting up around chocolate displays in our local market). Valentine's Day looms. And yes, I use the word looms. Rather than a more enthusiastic awaits. Or glimmers. As in, I haven't been that into Valentine's Day lately. Not that I have anything against love. Or chocolate. Or roses. That would make me rather icy. A stone cold cynic. The prickly sort who kicks away puppies. Or grimaces at kittens and babies.
Don't worry.
I don't indulge in any such blasphemy.
I still believe in love.
And though I may be, shall we say, a tad older than the estrogen-fueled ovulating audience targeted for Valentine's Day, I am not cantankerous. Nor am I without sympathy.
It's just that I find the accoutrements to our consumerist version of love rather ridiculous. All that red lace. Glitter lipsticks. And goddess forbid.
Never buy a piece of clothing that requires you to shave.
I personally prefer a little mystery in my romance. Leaving something to the imagination. But then, I am a child of the long-haired free love sixties. Pre-porn aesthetic. We didn't fear body hair.
Last year we stayed home and ate baked mac and cheese for our dinner 'o love. And settled in with a Mad Men DVD. No red silk in sight. No high heels. Not exactly glamorous. But then, you know us artists. We have paint under our fingernails. We have more books than lipsticks. We are curling iron challenged.
I've never been into the whole glossy, magazine style glamor. I am more into comfort (and warmth- after all, it is winter!). I'm not a party girl. I'd rather be home. In my flannel PJ's.
Baking a soda bread.
Karina's Gluten-Free Orange Scented Irish Soda Bread
Recipe originally posted February 2012.This gluten-free soda bread is moist and slightly sweet, with a kiss of citrus. Delightful warm from the oven. Sublime sliced and grilled till golden. No one will guess it is gluten and dairy free. Lovely with a bowl of my Golden Potato Soup for the Sensitive Soul.
1 cup sorghum flour
1 cup potato starch
1/2 cup almond meal flour, millet flour or GF oat flour
1/2 cup light brown sugar, packed
1 teaspoon baking soda
1 1/2 teaspoons baking powder
3/4 teaspoon fine sea salt
2 teaspoons xanthan gum
1/3 cup coconut oil or organic vegan shortening
3/4 cup fresh squeezed orange juice
2 free-range organic eggs, beaten
1 tablespoon grated orange peel
1/2 cup dried currants
Preheat the oven to 350ºF. Line the bottom of an 8-inch cake pan with a circle of parchment paper.
In a large mixing bowl, whisk together the flours, starches and dry ingredients.
Add in the coconut oil by pieces, and mix until it is sandy.
Add in the orange juice, eggs and orange peel. Mix the ingredients with a beater or a wooden spoon until a smooth and sticky dough forms.
Stir in the currants.
Scape the dough into the prepared cake pan and using wet hands flatten and smooth the dough into a round loaf. Using a knife, make a criss-cross dent in the center of the loaf, as best you can.
Bake the loaf in the center of the oven for 30 to 35 minutes, till firm and slightly golden. Cool on a wire rack for five minutes or so until it is cool enough to handle. Remove from the pan and peel off the parchment. Continue to cool on the rack or serve it warm.
Wrap and freeze leftover slices.
Makes one 8-inch round loaf.
Recipe Source: glutenfreegoddess.blogspot.com
Note: This Gluten-Free Goddess® recipe appeared in Allergic Living magazine, Spring 2011. My updated version here features sorghum and almond flour, and has more orange flavor, and no caraway.
GFG Notes:
I originally made this soda bread using brown rice flour instead of sorghum, and millet instead of almond meal. But if push comes to shove, I admit I much prefer sorghum and almond version. Its softer texture makes a better crumb. And almond meal adds a lovely dimension to bread dough.
As for potato starch (make sure it's not potato flour- a different animal all together) you can substitute other starches if you are avoiding potato (such as tapioca starch, cornstarch, arrowroot). Please note, however, that potato starch is soft and fluffy in recipes. Tapioca starch can be a bit tough. So if you sub the potato starch, make a blend of starches to replace it- don't use all tapioca starch.
If you want a fresh, sweet-tart taste use chopped dried cranberries instead of currants.


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BCS National Championship: Cable's Highest Overnight Rating
Record College Football Audience for ESPN3.com
ESPN's telecast of the Tostitos Bowl Championship Series (BCS) National Championship - a last-second 22-19 Auburn victory over Oregon -- posted a 16.1 overnight metered market rating, according to Nielsen, the highest in the history of cable television (records go back to 2001). The previous high was 14.4 for an ESPN Monday Night Football game - New England at New Orleans on November 30, 2009. The 16.1 overnight rating is higher than two of the previous six BCS title games (2008 - 15.6, 2005 - 14.6), and spurred ESPN to "win the night" among all networks, broadcast or cable.
The game drew huge audiences in the teams' markets - Birmingham, Ala. (67.0) and Portland, Ore. (37.5). Rounding out the top five were Nashville (28.8), New Orleans (28.6), and Knoxville (27.7).
The telecast likely will become the most-viewed program in the history of cable television, once fast national ratings become available this afternoon. The current top spot is another ESPN MNF contest, Green Bay at Minnesota on October 5, 2009, with an audience of 21,839,000 viewers (P2+) and 15,136,000 homes, based on a 15.3 rating.
Record College Football Audience on ESPN3.com; Huge Success for Digital Platforms
On ESPN3.com, the game was watched by more than 619,000 unique viewers, making it the most unique viewers ever for a college football game on ESPN3.com and it ranks fourth all-time in unique viewers behind three 2010 FIFA World Cup contests (source: Adobe). The previous college football record was last week's Allstate Sugar Bowl (248,000 viewers), a total that was more than doubled with the Auburn-Oregon matchup.
The BCS National Championship audience also set ESPN3.com records (excluding World Cup) with an average of 173,000 people per minute and close to 42 million minutes consumed (an average of 67 minutes/viewer), making it the third most-watched event ever on the network and third all-time in minutes consumed.
Across ESPN's digital platforms (ESPN.com, ESPN Mobile Web & ScoreCenter App, and ESPN3.com), January 10 saw 144.6 million total minutes of usage to college football content, an average of over 100,000 users per minute. Highlights for the day include ESPN.com's 15 million visits, 37.2 million page views and 77.1 million total minutes to college football content, increases of 26%, 33% and 52%, respectively, compared to the day of last year's BCS National Championship game. Additionally, college football content on the ESPN Mobile Web generated 7.1 million visits (up 60%), 14.5 million page views (up 47%) and 25.9 million total minutes (up 59%).
ESPN's first year of exclusive coverage of the five BCS matchups comprised ESPN, ESPN Radio and ESPN3.com presenting all five BCS Bowl games with ESPN 3D providing exclusive 3D coverage of the Tositios Fiesta Bowl and Tostitos BCS National Championship Game.
ESPN provided extensive on-site studio programming and reports across multiple shows and platforms, dedicated web pages for each bowl, re-airs of classic BCS games, international telecasts of all five games, encore presentations of the National Championship and more.
ESPN's year-round commitment to college football includes more than 400 games, culminating with 33 bowls, and approximately 200 million people tuned in to college football 2010 regular-season coverage on ESPN, ESPN2 and ABC.


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I love the love story of Paul + Julia Child, so when this adorable submission popped in my inbox, I was totally smitten. This group of talented vendors wanted to do a Valentine's feature with a different twist and were inspired by the love story of Paul + Julia, especially this quote from Paul: "You are the butter to my bread, the breath of my life – I love you my darling girl." If you aren't familiar with their story, the had a lovely, magical + beautiful relationship. They saw marriage as being part of a team – no I, but we. Every morning they liked to snuggle in bed together for a half hour after the alarm went off – just love that! "We are never not together," Paul said once, contentedly." Kind of how my hubby and I are trying to live our life as a married couple. :)
The team created a storyline based on the concept of Paul and Julia's love story, with a vintage and classic theme. They played on the "You're the butter to my bread" element by baking petite loaves, topping them with fresh herbs and butter hearts, and wrapping them in bakers twine. James presented them to Emily, along with conversation cookies that conveyed the same message. They kept a French theme present with the black and pink bouquet.
The forest picnic, mailbox full of handmade Valentines, and vintage attire was meant to convey a rustic, classic approach to the Valentine's Day theme. The photographs tell the story of a young man approaching his love in the forest, presenting her with handmade Valentines and flowers, and walking her to a prepared winter picnic. Emily and James, who are married, were the perfect couple for this shoot as they had no problem staring lovingly into each others eyes!
Thanks so much to these talented vendors for sharing their work with us today!
Event Planner: LaLune Events
Floral Pieces: Emici Bridal
Makeup: Artistic Expression Makeup
Photography: Easy Dreamer Photography


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- Home
- Government
- Departments
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Create a Website Account - Manage notification subscriptions, save form progress and more.
Danville Fire Department personnel are trained to the Emergency Medical Technician-Basic (EMT-B) level. Recertification and refresher classes are conducted annually by the department's EMS Training Division utilizing state-certified instructors.
The Department is licensed by the Virginia Office of Emergency Medical Services as a Basic Life Support (BLS) Agency, and is inspected periodically by the Western Virginia EMS Council (WVEMS).
The Department responds to life-threatening calls for assistance within the City of Danville, as a non-transporting agency. It is our goal to render aid until the arrival of one of the City's ambulance agencies.
Firefighters conduct training exercise using immobilization straps purchased with grant funds received from The Community Foundation of the Dan River Region.


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(visited by Roger Olmstead and Robert Parker)
13-Nov-2002 -- My friend and I have always enjoyed trips into Northern Baja – hiking and off-roading in the backcountry. We heard about the confluence project, and attempting an unvisited confluence seemed like a good excuse for a trip. So, after a little discussion, we decided to tackle 31N 115W.
We left Carlsbad (North San Diego County) very early on the morning of November 12, 2002, crossing the border at San Ysidro, and into Mexico at Tijuana. We then headed to San Felipe via Ensenada over Route 3. We went off-road Route 3 at Kilometer 164 and headed into the Laguna Diablo, a dry lake area north west of the confluence. We passed by Picacho Del Diablo, the highest mountain in Baja California at an astounding 10,154 feet. This is a truly majestic looking massif when viewed from the east with a very steep escarpment. After a few hours of 4-wheel exploring we discovered a sandy track moving towards the confluence from the north. This very sandy track ended in a boulder filled wash over one mile north of the confluence. By this time, it was late in the afternoon so we decided to head to San Felipe, rest up, and tackle the confluence the following morning.
The morning of the 13th of November 2002, we headed out of San Felipe, returning to the sandy track about ten miles west of San Felipe. At the end of the track the GPS gave our position as 1.3 miles north of the confluence, as the crow flies. We headed out on foot. Very deep sand, granitic mountain ranges, boulders, heat, and cactus impeded our progress but after two hours our position was within 300 meters of the confluence. Climbing a very steep decomposed granite crag and tumbling down the other side put us within 75 meters (by now we had probably covered twice the 1.3 miles). We started up the next mountain and found the confluence: 31N 115W.


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***Update - our Top 10 small Business Trends for 2012 list is now available***
In what has become an annual tradition, below is our top 10 small business trends list for 2010 (click here for our 2009 list, here for 2008).
The economy continues to be the key issue facing small business. We expect a country & western song type of recovery in 2010 - we've been down so low, the bottom looks like up. We anticipate moderate economic growth and stubbornly high unemployment.
Economic Trends
1. The Shift to Contingent Workers Turns Employees into Entrepreneurs: Employers large and small are shifting from full-time employees to part-timers, freelancers, outsourced services, partnership arrangements and other forms of contingent workers. They are doing this to save money and increase business flexibility. Despite the economic recovery, 2010 will see the contingent workforce grow as companies continue to limit hiring of full time staff. Many of these contingent workers will create or work for small businesses.
2. Personal Businesses on the Rise: Enabled by the Internet and low-cost information technology, the number of personal businesses (one employee businesses) has grown twice as fast as the overall economy over the last decade and exceeds 22 million. With the unemployment rate remaining high and traditional employment options limited, 2010 will be another year of strong growth in the number of personal businesses. The growth in personal businesses will also result in an increase in overall small business formation and numbers in 2010.
3. Small Business Lending Returns to Pre-Bubble Levels: The Great Recession was caused in large part by a decade long credit bubble. The recession ended the bubble and small business borrowing was extremely difficult in 2009. 2010 will see a thawing of credit markets, but the easy credit environment of the last decade will not come back. Instead, lending standards will return to pre-bubble levels and only highly credit worthy small businesses will be able to borrow. Because of this, the availability and use of alternative credit sources - merchant advances, micro-lending, community lending, factoring, etc. - will grow as sub-prime small businesses seek funds.
Social Trends
4. The New Local Movement: New localism is a long-term trend whose impact has been accelerated by the recession. Driven by changing demographics, new technology, rising energy prices and growing concerns about the environment, more Americans are focusing on their families, friends and communities. Small businesses tap into and benefit from this trend several ways. Small businesses allow greater community focus for the owner and employees, and they benefit from market opportunities created by locally-oriented customers.
5. There is No Place Like Home for Small Business: Fueled by technology and enabled by low costs, 2010 will see the continued growth of home-based businesses. According to the SBA half of all small business are home-based. Our research shows that about 6.6 million home-based enterprises provide at least half of their owners' household income, and together employ more than one in 10 private sector workers. See our Top 10 Hompreneur Trends for 2010 list for more on home-based businesses.
6. Clean and Green Creating Small Business Opportunities: Despite the current climategate controversy, the trends towards sustainability, clean technology and green energy continue to gain strength with consumers and businesses. In many cases the shift to sustainable business practices, products and services is changing how industries operate and creating a wide range of new small business opportunities.
Technology Trends
7. Social, Mobile and Cloud Computing Converge: All three of these interrelated technologies have been on our top 10 list for several years. Mobile and social computing entered the mainstream in 2009, and cloud computing will join them in 2010. Individually, each of these technologies is having a major impact on small business. But the increasing convergence of these technologies is amplifying their impact and fundamentally changing how business is done.
8. Location Technology and Services: With the near ubiquity of GPS systems in smartphones and cars, consumer and business use of location aware applications will grow dramatically in 2010. Location information on businesses and consumers will become common and merge with online reviews and ratings. The use of location-based marketing services will grow as location data makes the shift from offline to online marketing even more powerful and attractive.
9. Analytical Tools Lead to Data-Driven Decisions: Sophisticated yet easy-to-use tools are allowing small businesses to move from "gut level" decision making to evidence-based management. Online marketing and customer relationship management systems in particular allow small businesses to develop data-driven marketing and support programs that even recently were available only to large corporations.
10. Online Training Brings Professional Education to Small Business: Low-cost yet highly professional online training courses and programs provide small business with the ability to improve productivity and employee engagement. Often utilizing digital video and delivered just-in-time, online training provides small business with the ability to adapt and adjust to changing business conditions. Negatively impacted by the recession, small business use of online training will accelerate in 2010.


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NLCS Game 7: Random Thoughts
How important is defense? How difficult is it to truly measure defensive proficiency? A great example was the contrast in how shortstop was played by the two men manning the position in this game. Brandon Crawford made all the routine plays, and made a few slightly more-than-routine plays. On the other hand, Pete Kozma was below-average in executing a few plays, and failed to make a few slightly more-than-routine plays — and his timing couldn't be worse. The third inning went from trouble to absolute disaster because of three specific plays: 1. the broken-bat grounder with the wacky spin hit by Hunter Pence that dribbled into the outfield and cleared the bases; 2. Kozma's decision to throw home on a grounder with the bases loaded, when Kozma was playing back; and 3. the double play that wasn't turned on an Angel Pagan grounder, because Kozma's toss to second base was too high to promote a quick turn by Daniel Descalso. In all fairness, none of those were terrible failures; they certainly were excusable in almost all circumstances, at any point in a 162-game season. But in a Championship series (particularly Game 7), every single play is highly magnified, and the most minor of weaknesses and vulnerabilities are exposed. Kozma is considered to be at least adequate, if not average, defensively. But this game — in fact, this one inning of snafus (none of which resulted in an error being charged, by the way) — displayed how much impact defensive execution can have on winning or losing a ballgame. It may not be quite as noticeable over the long haul, but when you add up all the plays missed (or plays made), and multiply it over 9 defensive positions (yes, the pitcher counts), you can begin to understand why something so seemingly boring and immeasurable as defense (and fundamentals) is a difference-maker for baseball teams. It's why I want to tear my hair out when I hear people downplay Daniel Murphy's or Josh Thole's defensive limitations — because defense does matter.
Speaking of that broken-bat "double" by Pence: how the heck was that ruled a double? A really hard official scorer could have considered giving Kozma an error; though, generally speaking, if a fielder doesn't get a glove on it, it can't be an error. But how could the outfielder not picking up the ball on the first try not be ruled a one-base error?
Only the spastic Hunter Pence could hit a broken-bat, seeing-eye, bases-clearing double — and one in which his bat hit the ball no less than three times before propelling outward.
When a movie is made about this series, Woody Harrelson will play Hunter Pence.
Through the first six games of the NLCS, St. Louis homers Tim McCarver and Joe Buck were refreshingly non-partisan in their game calling and color commentary. Seriously, I felt they held no bias, to the point where I remarked to myself, "I nearly forgot the Cardinals were playing, these guys are broadcasting so fairly." In this Game 7, they were mostly unbiased, but here and there you could catch a hint of bitterness and despondency, mixed in with some feigned excitement at Giants triumphs.
On the radio, it was interesting to hear Jon Miller pronounce the names "Carlos Bel-TRAHN" and "AHN-hel Pagan."
When Kyle Lohse was pulled from the ballgame in that fateful third frame, Cardinals manager Mike Matheny called on Joe Kelly to get his team out of an impossible situation. If it were me in the dugout making the decision, and I needed a strikeout that desperately, I may have chosen Trevor Rosenthal instead. Why? Eleven strikeouts and one hit allowed in 6.2 postseason innings. In a do-or-die situation like that, you have to pull out all the stops. In games like this, where the starter gets pulled so early in an elimination contest, I always think of the time Billy Martin called on his "fireman" (that's what closers were called back in the day) Sparky Lyle in Game 4 of the 1977 ALCS in the fourth inning with men on first and second, two out, and Yankees holding a one-run lead. Lyle got out of that inning and pitched the final five to finish, and win, the ballgame (and pitched an inning to save Game 5 the next day). I realize today's game is played differently, but in Game 7 of the Championship Series, all bets are off, all rules go out the window, and you do whatever you have to do to survive.
No names on the back of the Giants jerseys is pretty damn cool. Shame on me for not noticing this fact for the past how many years(?). As we know, the name on the front of the jersey is more important than the one on the back — and if there's no name on the back at all, well, that fact is self-evident.
Nine days after deeming the season over, the World Series matchup worked out as well as it could have for my selfish purposes — no Yankees and no Cardinals. I guess that means I'll be watching the Fall Classic. Naturally, I'll root for the Giants since they play real, actual baseball and they are one of the surrogate parents of the Mets. But in the end, I'll be happy just to watch baseball — really good baseball — for another week or two, and won't be crushed if the Tigers win it all.
What about you? Any comments to add in regard to Game 7? Who will you root for, if anyone, in the World Serious?


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What do prices at the pump have to do with prices at the used car lot? They actually tend to mimic each other. Higher gas prices tend to cause drivers to want to spend less out of pocket on their automobiles. That means rising demand, as well as rising prices, for used cars—fuel-efficient used cars especially. Used car prices spiked last summer as gas prices soared, and then spiked again earlier this year as the national average neared $4 a gallon. Now that gas prices are retreating, relief is also in sight for consumers in the market for used cars.
Drivers have more than one reason to welcome decreasing gasoline prices. First, and most obviously, they mean that it'll cost less to commute, drop kids off at school, and run errands with the assistance of an automobile.
While a few months ago, it seemed all but certain that average gas prices around the nation would easily top $4 this summer, prices at the pump have been on a steady decline for more than a month now, even as the peak summer travel season nears. As of Wednesday, AAA's Fuel Gauge Report listed the national average at $3.62 per gallon, down from $3.82 one month beforehand.
(MORE: 10 Dangerous Products You Might Have in Your Home)
The latest reports indicate that the recent reversal in gas prices is unlikely to reverse itself again anytime soon. Experts quoted in a CNN Money post say that prices will more or less stay the same in the months ahead:
"We might move a little lower, we might move a little higher," said Tom Kloza, chief oil analyst of the Oil Price Information Service, the firm that compiles the pump price averages for AAA.
USA Today, meanwhile, cites analysts who anticipate that due to weak demand and decreasing crude prices, the national average may dip as low as $3.55 by mid-June.
(MORE: The Faster Lane: Why Small Cars Are Now Big Business)
So long as gas prices at least stay put, prices for used cars will come down from their recent highs as well. That's the second benefit of cheaper gas prices. The National Automobile Dealers Association estimates that after a five-month period in which used-car prices increased by 10% or more, prices on many popular used models are expected to decline by 4% or 5% in June.
The average asking price for a 2009 Toyota Camry, for instance, was $13,235 in May, up 15% from the January average of $11,510. In June, though, the average should retreat to $12,560, a drop of $675 (5% lower) from May—though still roughly $1,000 more than what the same car would have cost in January.
(MORE: Toyota Prius: Niche Car No More)
Likewise, the 2010 Hyundai Elantra, which was averaging $12,167 in May, is expected to sell for $500 less in June. The 2011 Toyota Prius is supposed to sell for $20,325, on average, in June, which is $900 less than it did in May. If gas prices decline further, used car prices may very well do the same.
Brad Tuttle is a reporter at TIME. Find him on Twitter at @bradrtuttle. You can also continue the discussion on TIME's Facebook page and on Twitter at @TIME.