text:
It's amazing how often I see some variant of the phrase "We can't afford to price our ebooks lower because we have costs to recoup." 10 minutes ago I saw that in the current Locus magazine interview with John Picacio. He in general seems like someone who gets it, both here and in the Sidebar podcast interview with him that coincidentally I listened to last week. This is not to single him out, he is maybe the 10,000th person I've seen say this, only the most recent before I type this up. In his interview he says:
If pricepoints for e-books are forced down, do publishers simply slash budgets to achieve their margins? Does that inevitably mean a dramatic slash in quality of experience for the reading audience in terms of things like cover art, copyediting, and other services that readers take for granted?
This reflects a point of view so common in the publishing world that is received wisdom. No one questions whether or not lowering the prices of ebooks will make them more money in the end. They all know it makes less money.
I'm attaching to this post some graphs I generated. I did this early in 2010, based on then recent data that J. A. Konrath had posted to his blog. He's a decent test bed for these numbers, as he had a number of ebooks out, some self-published and some published by a major publisher. These were priced all over the board. At the time, he was pricing his self-published books at $1.99, and the major publisher books were as high as the $8 vicinity. The commonality here is that none of them were getting much of a promotional push. There was no book tour, no advertising campaign so these numbers should be a realistic look at how price affects unit sales. It must be noted that I dropped two data points. He had two self-published books at $1.99 that sold so anamolously well that they blew out the chart. I dropped data to make the curve fit but the data I dropped would have biased this even farther to the low end of the curve. At the time, even Joe had no real explanation for why those books sold so well. He has since raised his price to $2.99 which is the same conclusion my data would lead you to. He's a savvy cat, I'm guessing that sometime between then and now he also ran these numbers and raised his prices accordingly. (Update: yes, he did raise prices based on his observation of data.)
Let me disclaim my analysis by saying I am not an MBA or a business guy. I am however a scientist, once a chemist and now a computer scientist. I know a little bit about numbers. If you think I have a flaw in my analysis, please tell me where you think I'm wrong in comments. Civilly. Don't bother flaming for I have a hard heart and admin rights.
Every single time I've heard anyone defend higher ebook prices, they cite the fact that "just because the publication is electronic, that doesn't eliminate costs." This fact is what I like to call "true but useless." Yes there are costs associated, but all costs in ebooks are fixed. The publisher does whatever they need to do editorially, formatting wise, etc. When that is done, they push a file to Amazon/B&N/Smashwords et al and that is that. Whether there is 1 sale or 1,000,000 unit sales, the costs are identical. I'm treating promotion as a fixed cost although I can be argued on that. Regardless, the costs of promotion do not rise as a function of sales. They may drive sales, but if you sell 10x what you estimate, your promotion costs don't expand ten-fold.
Since all costs that go into creating the publication ready file are fixed and there are no variable costs associated with providing copies to the market (from the publisher – Amazon et al are paying them) by my understanding the only factor that should be important is total revenue. If you lower the price of the book, you run the risk of pricing lower than a purchaser might have been willing to pay. That is an opportunity cost but not a hard cost. It's not like in the paper world when publishers sell the remaindered book at less than the hard costs associated with the manufacture and shipping costs of those copies. That's not possible in the digital world. Instead what is important is pricing the books so that the total revenue is maximized.
I took the Konrath data and did a logarithmic regression. You'll see that the R^2 = 0.96, which is a pretty darned good fit. Then I used that equation to plot out the line that predicts the sales at any price point interpolated or extrapolated across the range and a little higher. I then made a second graph of the price multiplied by the unit sales (aka gross revenue) against the price. What you'll see from the graph is that just a little over $3 per copy is where revenue maximizes. When you get under that, the per unit sales rise exponentially, but the price is low enough that the revenue drops. Around $3 is the sweet spot, again which I stress is for the data set that I have.
Now, I acknowledge the limits of the data I used for this analysis. Even better would be if I could get all of Konrath's data for his history but a publisher or e-retailer could do much much better. Let's suppose the standard price for a given Kindle book is $9.99. Have Amazon show 55% of the users that look at that page the $9.99 price. Randomly assigned, 5% of users each would see a price from $0.99 to $8.99 in $1 increments. Analyze that data for the conversion rate to sales at each price and you could generate much better statistics than I have because all of those numbers will be for the same book at the same time. This is ultimately my larger point – in digital sales, this kind of experiment is possible. If the major publishers haven't done this and don't understand what this curve looks like for their books then they really have no excuse for stating definitively why they can't lower prices.
The assumption under all those statements is that the demand for these books is inelastic. If you price it at $14.99 you'll get about the same sales figures at $9.99 or $6.99 or $2.99 so pricing it high maximizes revenue. For certain well known marquee writers this might be true but my suspicion is that the market is far more elastic than any publisher would like to think. I think that's the root of this mindset. Publishers and authors ultimately have a worldview that is the opposite of this analysis. They don't want to believe that they have a commodity product that is price sensitive. No one sits down to spend a few months or years writing a novel thinking "wow, if this book is priced too high the Kindle readers will just move on to another book priced more reasonably with which they'll be just as happy." I feel for them as a person who has tried to write fiction and will do it again. That's a hard fact to face but I think accepting it would make everyone more money.
Let me state this one more time: I don't think lowering ebook prices costs anyone money unless and until they drop under that magic point. I think authors and publishers would make more money if they'd understand these principles, experiment to determine the revenue maximizing points and then price accordingly.
Here's a real world example from my life on how this principle worked for me and how I hypothesize it works for more of my fellow Kindle and Nook readers. I am interested in Greg Graffin's book Anarchy Evolution. I heard the interview on Skepticality and went to buy it for my Kindle. At the time I looked, it was priced at $14.99. I came, looked at that and said "Well, screw this. That's more than the book is worth to me. Pass." I closed the tab in my browser and never thought about it again until today. When I needed a book I had previously passed on for high price for this anecdote, I thought of this one. Until assembling this post, I hadn't even realized the price has been lowered to $9.99 for the Kindle version. HarperCollins had my attention months ago, got me to the page to purchase it but an excessively high price kept me from buying it. Iif the average book is priced above my impulse buy threshold, the purchase ain't happening. If it were not for writing this post right now, I wouldn't have ever thought about the book again so the one and only chance to flip me to a paying customer would have passed without conversion.
Publishers seem to fail to understand the low friction digital marketplace for ebooks. This is an impulse-buy driven mode. I am a reader of books and a lover of books but my wife has threatened physical violence if I bring in any more paper books without getting rid of some of the thousands that fill every available bookshelf in a house too big for two people. You will not sell me paper books except for those very few novels by special writers I must have in paper. On the Kindle, though, it's fair game. The sad truth is that for my whole life, in any given time period I have always purchased more books than I read. Even though my physical capacity is exhausted, I still want to buy them. Even though I have every single Anthony Trollope novel you can get from Project Gutenberg on my Kindle, I still want more books. I'm a hoarder. Publishers have a chance to get my money even though I have more paper books and ebooks than I can reasonably expect to read in this lifetime. They have one and only one way to blow this, when I come to look at the page and there is a price above my impulse buy threshold for that item.
Publishers and authors continue to try to make this a moral argument. "What, you cheap bastard ebook readers don't think we should get paid for our work?" I think if they suppress the ego driven umbrage reaction and instead get down to the realities of the market they are in, everyone can make more money and be more happy. The artistic goodness of the work isn't tied to the price point, so don't be offended if you make more money at $2.99 than $9.99. Instead, shut up and cash the check, friend.
I listened back to the first few minutes of a panel I moderated at Balticon 2010, and in my introduction I used the phrase "I'm done begging people to get in the lifeboats. If they don't want in, that's on them." I'm not beating my head trying to evangelize to publishers why they should price appropriately. Some are and some aren't; some will and some won't. I have enough faith in the marketplace that in the long term it will all shake out. The question is, how much money are you leaving on the table while you get your shit together?
There are people who understand the dynamic of this marketplace, J.A. Konrath being one of many. He periodically posts about some of the other self-published authors who are following the same path, pricing reasonably and moving thousands of units per month. (Side note: the Nathan Lowell mentioned in that Konrath post was also on that Baltcon panel with me. He's a talented, hard working guy.) That translates to thousands of dollars per month in the pockets of these writers, since they are keeping the full 70% of the retail price by self-publishing. These people are out there, they are filling niches in the marketplace. Established writers, you could be doing this. Existing publishers, you can be pricing to fulfill this demand and bringing in more money. There will be a day in the future where I will be one of those self-published authors. Will my book be as good and successful as Joe's and Nate's novels? I hope so. I'm willing to fill that niche at that end of the pricing scale. Are you?
Updates: Paul Biba at Teleread asked for permission to reprint this post, which I happily granted and that is online here.
It's a failure of clarity in my original article, but I'm not advocated for $2.99 as the perfect One True Price for all ebooks forever. That was true for this data set, which is already a year old. This might well change over time, differ from author to author, genre to genre or publisher to publisher. What I do want injected into the thinking is that these numbers are calculable and measurable. No one needs to say – as did Lou Anders later in the Locus Magazine I reference above – "We can't lower prices because we still have costs." How do you know you don't gross more money if you lower prices?
The other big point is that unless your price is so low as to be left of the curve, you lower your total revenue by raising prices. J.A. Konrath was to the left of that curve at $1.99. I highly doubt HarperCollins is left of that curve with any $11.99 books.


text:
The major construction work on McBryde Hall was completed in 1971, with a 560-seat auditorium added in 1973. The building replaced the old McBryde Hall, built in 1917 and razed in 1966. The old McBryde was among the first campus buildings constructed of native stone in the neo-Gothic style and native limestone. It had been planned as a brick building but native limestone was substituted when brick became unavailable.
McBryde Hall
225 Stanger St.McBryde Hall is an academic building that contains classrooms and offices, including
- Department of Computer Science
- Department of Engineering Education
- Department of Mathematics
- Department of Sociology
The building is a compass, of sorts. Each of its entrances face due north, south, east, and west.
John McLaren McBryde
McBryde Hall memorializes John McLaren McBryde, president from 1891 to 1907. Known as the "Father of VPI," McBryde laid the foundation for modern Virginia Tech. He increased bachelor's degree offerings, added graduate programs, created an infirmary, and christened the motto Ut Prosim (That I May Serve). He encouraged the formation and growth of student activities and was at the helm when the first football team was formed and school colors of orange and maroon were adopted.
Building History
- Originally Built:
- 1972
- Map Grid:
- Abbreviation / Number:
- Coordinates:
- 37.23062, -80.42178

subset: commoncrawl


text:
Zondervan has published two books of the same length and price, one against Calvinism and one for Calvinism. Against Calvinism was written by the Arminian theologian Roger E. Olson. For Calvinism was written by Michael Horton of Westminster Seminary California. The cover of Olson's book is red with three dead tulips; Horton's cover is green with three living tulips. Each author wrote the foreword for the other's book, communicating mutual respect.
Nevertheless, each book is independent, in that they do not reference arguments back and forth as in a debate. If you buy only one of the two books, you can fully enjoy that book without need of the other. But one can't help wanting to read both, because they are set up in opposition, one trying to build up Calvinism and the other trying to destroy it.
The occasion for Olson's book is the rise of five-point Calvinism (TULIP) among young Christians. He is irritated that many of his "best and brightest theological students were gravitating toward Calvinism" (p. 15) under the influence of Pastor John Piper. Olson and other faculty at Truett Seminary refer to them as "Piper Cubs."
Olson's critique of TULIP is restricted to the doctrines of unconditional election, limited atonement, and irresistible grace. He replaces them, respectively, with the doctrines of divine self-limitation (that God limits his sovereignty over creation to make room for man's free will), unlimited atonement (that Jesus' death makes forgiveness possible for all people), and prevenient grace (that God enables all people to believe in Christ equally).
Olson's main concern is that the Calvinist doctrine of God's decree—that God unconditionally foreordained everything that happens—implies that he is the author of sin and thus a moral monster. In other words, Olson argues against God's decree on the basis of the problem of evil.
The book reads more like an opinion piece than a theological polemic. It is filled with illustrations, analogies, and accounts of personal encounters with abrasive Calvinists, but it is light on biblical exegesis. Olson seems to think that just stating the Calvinistic position is the best argument against it. He even indicates that he would not believe in God's decree even if the Bible did teach it! His book is marred by too many references to later chapters of the book, like someone saying, "I'll explain this later ... and I'll explain that later too."
Regarding the problem of evil, the Calvinist says that God decreed crimes against children, which Olson thinks is horrible. Olson's doctrine of divine self-limitation says that God limits his sovereignty to allow criminals freedom to hurt children. How is that any better? Is a criminal's freedom more valuable to God than a child's safety? Olson, in arguing against Calvinism, has unwittingly argued against Christianity broadly considered. Atheists commonly use that argument against Christianity. For Olson to pick that argument up and apply it to Calvinism alone, when Arminianism is also vulnerable to it, suggests that he has not given enough consideration to the consequences of his own theological system. In other words, if Olson's argument wins, then both Calvinism and Arminianism stand defeated. He uses a Kamikaze argument, seemingly unaware.
As for Olson's theory of God's self-limitation, God cannot limit himself. God is limitless in all his attributes. To suggest that God limits his sovereignty is like saying that God can limit his truthfulness, or his holiness, or his infinity, or his eternity, or his love, or his immutability. Olson essentially suggests that God changes his own being in order to make room for man's autonomous free will.
Horton's defense of Calvinism was a pleasure to read. You may think you don't need to read it because you already agree with Calvinism, but don't dismiss this book if you want a contemporary defense of confessional Reformed theology against detractors.
There are eight chapters. Chapter 1, "The Essence of Calvinism," looks at Calvinism from a historical-theological perspective. Horton argues for a catholic, evangelical, consistent monergism of five points and solas. But he also argues against the assumption that God's sovereignty is Calvinism's "central dogma," from which all other doctrines are logically deduced. This exemplifies how Horton presents basic theological material and more advanced concepts at the same time. There is a nice complexity to the book in that respect.
In chapter 2, Horton stresses that Reformed anthropology begins before the Fall, with man's nature in the state of innocence. Consistent with this conviction, he addresses concupiscence, total depravity, free will, the distinction between natural and moral ability, the sense of God, God's decree in relation to sin, the gospel, etc. But again, Horton takes basic concepts like total depravity and relates them to an advanced concept, in this case Adam's state of innocence.
In chapter 3, Horton gives an infralapsarian explanation and biblical defense of unconditional election. He discusses reprobation, the Reformed understanding of God's permissive decree, foreknowledge, corporate election, double agency, the implications of the Creator-creature distinction for the free will of God and man (an advanced point, particularly well made), assurance, and the mystery of it all.
In the remaining chapters, Horton defends limited atonement, effectual calling, perseverance, piety, and missions. The book ends introspectively, analyzing current Calvinism's strengths and weaknesses.
© 2024 The Orthodox Presbyterian Church


text:
3N Document Destruction, Inc.
Paper Shredding
3N Document Destruction, Incorporated is the Capital District's most trusted name in the confidential destruction industry. We have been providing secure, professional and cost effective confidential destruction service to the Capital District since 1994, longer than anyone else. Our business philosophy has always been the same: To build a company that provides the finest secure confidential destruction service in the area at a fair and competitive price. We pride ourselves on our professionalism, the highest level of security and friendly customer service. We are a locally owned and operated family business based in Clifton Park, New York. We are not a franchise or an out-of-towner. We have built our business by working with our clients and building relationships with them to become the premier shredding service for the greater Albany area. Are there holes in your company's security plan? If you do not have a program in place to capture the confidential material your company generates, your company may be exposed to security breaches. No longer is recycling or ''hydro-pulping'' an option for the disposal of confidential material. Is your firm affected by HIPAA, Gramm, Leach, Bliley or FACTA? 3N can assist you with answering these questions and others as well as protecting your business from potential liability or non-compliance penalties.
Video Media
Bob Neville


text:
The Green Shopping Bag
For my first post of the year, I bring you the green shopping bag. This is a true green crafting idea in every sense of the word. It is crocheted from recycled plastic grocery bags into plarn, then of course it's green in color, and lastly it is eco-friendly as it saves the use of plastic bags as you can reuse this roomy bag over and over again.
This crocheted shopping bag is created in three pieces and then assembled as shown in the photos below. As always, I offer the free recycled plastic bag pattern below. Enjoy!
All photos are clickable to supersize
Assembly of main piece to long strip
Free Green Shopping Bag Pattern
Materials needed:
One large ball of plastic bag yarn or Plarn
Approx. 80 plastic grocery bags
Hook: N (9 mm) size metal crochet hook
Description: The Green Shopping Bag
Bag measures 12-1/2″ wide, 15-1/2″ tall and 6-1/2″ deep with 14″ handles
This shopping bag is crocheted in 3 pieces. A front and back piece and one long strip that runs down the side, across the bottom and back up the other side of the bag.
Main pieces (make two for the front and back of your bag.)
Ch 30.
Row 1
Hdc in 2nd ch from hook and in ea chain st down to end. Ch 2, turn. (28 sts)
Repeat row 1 until you have 14 inches long which is about 28 rows. If your gauge is off a bit it doesn't matter in this pattern.
Long side and bottom strip:
Ch 17.
Row 1
Hdc in 2nd ch from hook and in ea chain st down to end. Ch 2, turn. (15 sts)
Repeat row 1 to create your strip by working even on 15 sts until your piece measures 40 inches long.
Don't finish off but leave your yarn attached should you need to add another row to your strip. If your strip is too short when you put your bag together this allows you to add a row without a problem.
Assembly of pieces:
Assemble by taking one main bag piece and your long strip and placing them with edges together. (See photos.)
Starting in the corner, work a Sc through both layers to attached them together. Work down the sides, across the bottom, and back up the other side. FO. You will notice that using this method of attachment creates a raised edge seam around your entire bag.
Tip: If your strip is too short when you join the first main piece, just crochet another row of Hdc so the strip is long enough to match to the top of bag at both ends. FO the strip once you have the first main piece and strip attached.
Take the remaining main piece and place it together at the top of your long strip. Starting in the top edge corner of the bag, work a SC through both layers to attach in the same manner as you did above. Don't finish off. Leave yarn attached to work handles.
Rnd 1
Using yarn still attached at top front edge of your bag, Sc in the next 8 sts, ch 27 for handle, skip over then to the remaining 8 sts of front side of the bag and work 8 Sc in ea st to match other side. Continue working Sc around in ea st until you are at the top front edge of the main piece of the other side, Sc in next 8 sts, ch 27 for handle, skip sts at center to the remaining 8 sts of front side of the bag and work 8 Sc to match other side. Do not connect or join at end of row, just continue working Sc's in rounds until told to FO.
Check your handles and make sure each side matches each other before moving on. Adjust your sts as needed to match.
Rnd 2
Sc in ea st around to handle. Sc around chain of handle, (approx 27 Sc) evenly, then Sc in ea st around to other side's handle. Sc around that handle chain to match other side.
Rnd 3
Sc in ea st to handle. Sc in ea st of handle and Sc in ea st of bag. Repeat for other side to match and Sl St into next two sts at side of bag to finish off edge smoothly. FO and weave in ends.
If you have any questions or find discrepancies in this pattern, please email me using contact tab above.
Ch – Chain
Dc – Double Crochet
Ea – Each
FO – Finish Off
Hdc – Half Double Crochet
Plarn – Plastic Bag Yarn
Rnd – Round
Sc – Single Crochet
Sk – Skip
Sl St – Slip Stitch
Sm – Same
St – Stitch
This pattern is copyrighted by Cindy of My Recycled Bags {dot com} and may only be used for private individual use. No commercial sales or use of this pattern or photos are permitted. Links to this pattern are acceptable and appreciated. ©2009
****Please do not copy my patterns on your blog site or post my patterns on Internet sites. I do not allow my patterns to be republished without expressed written permission. Posting of my patterns, without written permission is in violation of my copyrights and is content theft.
Tags: crochet, free-pattern, plarn, shopping-bag


text:
Upgrading to SQL Server 2008
You can upgrade instances of SQL Server 2000 or SQL Server 2005 to SQL Server 2008. Before running SQL Server Setup to upgrade to SQL Server 2008, review the following topics about the upgrade process.
In This Section
Topic |
Description |
Documents installation requirements, system configuration checks run by SQL Server Setup, and security considerations for a SQL Server installation. |
Documents supported upgrade paths to SQL Server 2008. |
Describes Upgrade Advisor, a tool that analyzes instances of SQL Server 2000 and SQL Server 2005 to identify known upgrade issues. |
Provides links to procedural topics for upgrading to SQL Server 2008. |
Lists the significant changes that might affect your applications after you upgrade to SQL Server 2008. |
See Also


text:
A new year… so comments reflecting the past year in climate science, or looking forward to the next are particularly apropos.
Reader Interactions
301 Responses to "Unforced Variations: Jan 2013"
Does anyone know why there appears to be open water near the North Pole in the NCOF charts? See a chart collection at https://sites.google.com/site/apocalypse4realseaice2012/home/sea-ice-concentration-and-thickness-comparison , which indicate that the open water developed about Dec 24. Thanks
Donald @1 — Probably because there is open water at that spot. But it is a looong way from there to the North Pole.
US CO2 emissions continue to decline
http://rhinohide.org/energy/analysis/eia/img/eia-energy-emissions.png -
David, the charts I mentioned show dark blue right next to the '90 N' label. Not that long a distance.
Donald, I'd guess there's something odd with the imagery they generate around the pole at that"apocalypse4realseaice…" page, I'd guess; all its images have something odd around at the pole.
You might want to compare the sources that page cites, it says it gets the first image's data from
which generates a Mercator (I think) rather than a polar projection. Or dig deeper and find the data set they're using. Remember no "polar orbiting" satellites track directly over the poles: http://www.rap.ucar.edu/~djohnson/satellite/coverage.html#polar
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/~djohnson/satellite/figures/polar1.gif -
post #1. That's probably missing data. North pole maps often have missing data around the pole.
It's no secret to people who read this site that 2012 was a record breaker in terms of Arctic sea ice melt. I'm very curious to see what happens in the summer 2013.
One thing I have been trying to learn more about is the AMSR-2 climate satellite. My understanding is that it was launched in May of 2012 but that it is still undergoing calibrations and testing. No real info yet on when it "goes live" and starts sending back what is expected to be the most accurate data yet on polar ice. I went googling for info and came up with surprisingly little. This is the most recent article I could find, and it wasn't very detailed:
This is a Japanese satellite. Seems that NASA doesn't have the funding to do anything similar, and the old Aqua satellite was allowed to die with no replacement planned.
Does anyone know more about what is happening in this (climate satellite) arena? Are the Europeans doing anything?
Donald @4 — Yes, I think you are right:
Hank Roberts @5 seems to have nailed it; the image generator does not fill in properly where there is no data. -
At some point, the pace of doom will overtake this blog's capacity to document it. In 2012, Desdemona came pretty close to this threshold, as a burst of extreme weather events battered civilization and illustrated the nature of abrupt climate change to the most obdurate of nation states.
What is this paper ? the link in the article seems broken and i see nothing in GRL December ? No author names are given in the article either…
sorry, i didnt put in the link
the paper is referred to herehttp://green.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/12/31/light-absorption-speeding-arctic-ice-melt/
Ron Broberg #3
Have you seen Bob Watson's presentation at the Meeting of the AGU (Fall 2012)?
In this presentation he points out that rather than a fall in CO2 emissions by the UK since 1990 as sometimes claimed (I remember 22%) that when the CO2 embedded in imports is counted there has been a rather large increase (I think 18%).
The UK imported goods more goods that were made abroad during this period – from countries like China. They emitted CO2 on the UK's behalf. As Professor Watson says, the CO2 from the manufacture of these goods should really go on the UK budget.
I expect it will be much the same for the US.
Bob Watson does actually work for the UK government.
In March 2009 the White House and some environmental groups decided to avoid references to climate change as a political strategy, substituting various euphemmisms.
#3Ron Broberg and #13Geoff Beacon
One of the better papers on the subject is at http://supplychainco2.stanford.edu/paper.html
This may be a dumb question (please don't lol) – where people NOAA, IPCC etc mention Ocean & Land surface temperatures are they ONLY speaking to the AIR TEMPS measured near the surface?
In that, when someone speaks about ocean temps, they are not actually talking about the average temp of the "water" but the air just above it.
iow in all cases where Climate Temps are discussed (historical and present) it is AIR Temps only.
Then maybe another dumb question: what public info data is there regarding average water temps in the oceans themselves? iow status or changes in the OHC, ocean heat content, i think it's called. Is the research in this area still very limited, or are new things in the pipeline. THX
RE #15 #13, #3 quote from Glens supply chain url
"Policies seeking to regulate emissions will affect not only the parties burning fuels but also those who extract fuels and consume products. No emissions exist in isolation, and everyone along the supply chain benefits from carbon-based fuels," Davis said.
This is of course the Elephant in the room of every international meeting about CC, CO2 targets, and ETS. They do not want to deal with it, and thus avoid reality and reason, and so all agreements are flawed.
Australia is a good example, decreasing local manufacturing, increasing manufactured imports (eg China), already highest per capita GHG emissions, plus highest per capita exports of Carbon in Gas and Coal (eg to China). Both China and Australia are thus advantaged by avoiding this issue over the bulk of other nations, and neither wish to touch it with a ten foot pole. As Deep Throat wisely suggested to Woodward .. follow the money. :)
Science in Ice: Lab Operates Inside a Glacier
Glaciers (at least this one) don't move quite the way previously thought. -
#16–Sean, it's good to want to get clear on such issues. Short answer: in general, ocean surface temperatures are actual water temperatures in the surface layer of the ocean, not air temperatures. But it's good to pay attention to the methodology used by each agency.
For NOAA/NCDC, for example, the FAQs are here:
Point #3 deals with the data:
Land surface temperatures are available from the Global Historical Climate Network-Monthly (GHCN-M). Sea surface temperatures are determined using the extended reconstructed sea surface temperature (ERSST) analysis. ERSST uses the most recently available International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS) and statistical methods that allow stable reconstruction using sparse data. The monthly analysis begins January 1854, but due to very sparse data, no global averages are computed before 1880. With more observations after 1880, the signal is stronger and more consistent over time.
What is "ERSST," you ask? Well, luckily the acronym is hot-linked, so if you click on the original you get to this page:
There are basically three versions of ERSST now; the latest is described here:
(Be aware that this is not easy reading.)
Bottom line is that for ERSST.v.3, you've got data from ships and buoys (just as in v.1 & v.2), plus satellite data as well.
(Some limited use is also made of weather station data; but that's mostly (if I've got this right) to help 'see' relatively short-term ("high-frequency") warmings and coolings, and so is not that relevant for climate change.)
ICOADS info is here:
And note that it is seriously affected by budget cuts mandated by Congress:
Just part of the the "if we don't know, then it isn't real" approach favored by Tea Party types, I guess.
I remember seeing that paper. I thought it a bit odd, they were measuring and increase in light transmitted into the water, but implying that reflected a significant loss of albedo. I was thinking, but isn't the amount of sunlight that makes it through the ice into the water small enough that transmittance is a (very) poor proxy for albedo. But, I'm not in possession of any numbers. -
#7 Candide: "Seems that NASA doesn't have the funding to do anything similar, and the old Aqua satellite was allowed to die with no replacement planned."
Rumors of Aqua's demise may have been somewhat exaggerated. The AMSR-E instrument on Aqua failed in October 2011 — the other instruments on that Earth Observing System satellite are still functioning, AFAIK.
I see that one number in Pfeffer(2008) is superseded
"…highest outlet glacier velocity observed anywhere [14.6 km/year (6)],…"
Apparently JI hit 17 this year
Welcome to 2013 Everybody! Just been reading an article by Coral Davenport in the National Journal re: putting money on adaptation measures now, rather than prevention. I couldn't agree more!. Also looking at the usual ignorant comments posted at the forum at the bottom of the page. Siting that we are coming out of a little ice age..hence the warming and that it's just the natural evolution of the climate etc. and that she's pushing her own personal agenda by cashing in on the climate bandwagon. The denialists probably outnumber the people who 'understand what's going on' by about 3-1. This is the the typical response by the public to these articles by what I've seen to date. Anyway she states that it's too late aready to stop a 2C rise..fair enough! That it wont be until 2015 until the next round of talks and any laws or agreements that are passed wont need to be inacted for another 5 years after that. That President Obama can quite securely say that he has tried to do his best knowing full well that any proposed ammendments will be soundly defeated in the senate. Added to that the postponement of the double pike and somersaut off the fiscal cliff probably will spur a new spurt in growth in the industrialised countries with scant regard to the environment..up goes emissions..up,up and away! It now seems that Jim Hansen was too conservative himself when he pinned his flag to the benchmark 2C (400ppm) rise and in fact we probably have already zoomed past it years ago. The poles are melting just fine way below that mark. The jist of the article was that if we cannot make any headway in reducing emissions, let alone cutting emissions up to 2C we have virtually zero chance of achieving that after 2C and irreversable, uncontrollable and catastophic CC will enevitable follow. So c'mon guys take what we know out into the mainstream to counter the destructive lies by the denyalists with well thought out, factual and logical arguments. At work I'm known as Mr Climate Change and slowly but surely I'm turning my workmates uninformed veiwpoints around.
17 Sean: Yeah! I'm an australian and voted labor last election for the 1st time because I thought they had the best environmental policies..Boy! do I now feel cheated and betrayed. I still can't vote Coalition because they still (apart from Mal Turnbull) don't believe CC is happening. Labor knows it's happening but they are firmly under the hold of big mining and oil. Rather frustating isn't it!
re john byatt @ 358 (Dec.) – thanks.
STORM – Development of a high resolution climate model
Dr. Jin-Song von Storch, group leader in the department "The Ocean in the Earth System" at Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M), and her colleagues have accomplished for the first time an estimate of the Lorenz energy cycle for the world ocean with a one-tenth-degree ocean model developed within the STORM project. Such an estimate has not been possible with a state-of-the-art ocean model and enables more detailed studies on the sensitivity and stability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and more precise representations of climate and climate change.
http://www.mpimet.mpg.de/en/communication/news/research-news-overview/storm-development-of-a-high-resolution-climate-model.htmlArctic Storms: A Climate Danger Nobody's Talking About
Summer and fall are hurricane season, but for the storms known as polar lows, prime time falls in the dead of winter, when frigid air blows off sea ice to collide with warmer, moister air in the North Atlantic. Polar lows are a lot smaller and weaker than hurricanes, they're generally shorter-lived, and the only danger they generally pose is to shipping and oil rigs.
However, according to a new study in Nature Geoscience, the dozens of polar lows that roil the Greenland, Iceland and Norwegian seas every year may have an effect on the climate of North America and Europe. And if polar lows move northward with the changing climate, as some studies have predicted, winters in both places could become colder, even as the planet warms.
As if that weren't bad enough, a northward displacement of these Arctic storms could also raise sea level higher along America's mid-Atlantic coast than the average increase of 3 feet or so projected for the world as a whole by 2100.
It all has to do with the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), a vast conveyer belt of sea water that includes the Gulf Stream. http://www.climatecentral.org/news/arctic-storms-the-climate-danger-nobodys-talking-about-15363
Well, there's a known unknown. From the Climatecentral link:
"… what changes in polar lows might do to ocean temperatures … needs to be incorporated into climate models.
But …. "It will probably take 10 or even 20 years before we have the raw computing power to do that,…."Maybe it's time to turn some of those big Defense Department and petroleum-exploration computing systems over to the climatologists to hurry this along.
[Response: It's one of my pet peeves that people say that something 'has to be incorporated into climate models' when it isn't new physics at all. Climate models all have low pressure storms in the Arctic – so you might claim that you need very high resolution to better capture the subtleties or the impacts on upper ocean mixing or something, but you can't claim they aren't included. All too common a trope unfortunately. – gavin]
#27, Totally agree, its not a resolution problem it is rather a lack of integration or modelling the latest knowledge acquired. For instance the Europeans using refraction with ECMWF
Using occultation from GPS Radio waves bending from many polar orbiting satellites to determine atmospheric densities. Damn good idea, simple enough and likely not requiring much greater computer capacity. However, I think we can use the sun (or other not so distant objects) optically in order to be vastly more precise, not using computers as much as telescopes, something to complement and check the models instantly. I know that GRIB can't "see" or calculate some or most Arctic inversions, a key to understanding Arctic weather is routinely foregone. From there the computer long range forecast buildup of winter misses one of its biggest building blocks. In addition, I can easily say that I am completely puzzled by huge variations in sun disk dimensions in short time spans, when there seems to be no readily available explanations, I lack the understanding, just like models project without integrating or cross checking secondary observation sources, crucial in science, we estimate things without knowing all the mechanics. Like a car not quite tuned, a working vehicle nevertheless not as efficient as it can really be.
But progress is being made, for those familiar with refraction occultation from satellites, we can use lower tropospheric data, they deal with the surface to air interface, the two combined explain a lot.
I explain more about my #28 comment: http://eh2r.blogspot.ca/
> 27
My ellipsis took out too much, Gavin — that reference was about incorporating the possible effect of possible changes in arctic storms on ocean circulation — not about incorporating arctic storms per se in climate models. It was an "if this, presumably that" kind of story — and may be more attributable to the newspaper editor than the scientist it got hung on.
My bad, sorry.
A bit better, but still an excerpt:
"… if the ice migrates northward, these storms could migrate northward as well," said co-author Ian Renfrew, of the University of East Anglia, in the U.K.
If that happens, their … effect on the AMOC would diminish and the current would presumably slow…."[Response: I didn't mean to be overly critical, but these are processes which already happen in coupled GCMs – though the connections are more complex than the quoted 'presumption' would imply. The neat thing about the work being discussed is that ocean eddies are included, and it is conceivable that this will change the nature of the response to forcings in a coupled system….. or not. But it is the nature of the an intermediate step (however necessary and interesting) to not be able to predict the end point (otherwise it wouldn't be intermediate at all). – gavin]
and I munged that bit too; the quote ends at "as well"
I have a question for the experts. I'm investigating the temperature record for my local area and I'm not sure what length of time to use for the average temperature baseline. I have 64 years worth of data and so far my baseline period has been from 1951 to 2010. I've used various periods and it can mean the difference between a positive and negative trend. It's obviously critical to the results.
Thanks for any help.
#32–"I've used various periods and it can mean the difference between a positive and negative trend. It's obviously critical to the results."
Maybe I'm misunderstanding you, Tom, but baseline should not affect trend, as I see it. The trend is a property of the period analyzed–say, 64 years–which is independent of your baseline value (say, 1951-2001.) (Absurd example: you could baseline not to a mean of any set of years, but to absolute zero if you wanted to.)
But maybe you meant that the period analyzed affects the trend? (Certainly true.)
Thanks for the reply Kevin.
Clearly I didn't think this through. I didn't frame the question correctly in my statistically novice way. Baseline is probably the wrong term and my approach may be incorrect entirely.
Here's what I did.
I wanted to see how the temperature has changed in my area over the years. So I calculated the average temperature for each year. Then I got the average temperature for the period 1951-2010 (60 years) as a "baseline" to derive the anomaly, i.e, the difference in the baseline average and the average for each year. I then plotted the anomaly vs 0 to see the points on a graph. Then I used a simple linear regression to determine trends.
My problem was that any period I used to calculate the baseline average temperature would be slightly different meaning a different anomaly.
I see now that what I called the baseline (avg temp for period) has no effect on the trend but the starting and ending points for the trend does.
Maybe that would have been the better question. I chose two 30 year periods to determine trends. One from 1951-1980 and the other 1981-2010.
Sorry for the confusion. Doesn't matter anyway I guess. Very poor linear correlation.
Here's a link to the chart if you're interested.
Slip Slidin' Away – Ice sheets and sea level in a warming world ABRUPT SLR (IN METERS) A LIKELIHOOD http://climatestate.com/climate-state/videos/item/slip-slidin-away-ice-sheets-and-sea-level-in-a-warming-world.html
New lecture video with Richard Alley
For Tom R.: the discussion here explains the terms and choices:
http://www.woodfortrees.org/notes#wti -
"The Climate Guy" would like you to check out his latest post on weather.com at:
http://www.weather.com/news/climate-lottery-december-20121212Please play "The Climate Lottery" and follow how our warming world is affecting the United States on a seasonal basis.
Mr prokaryotes: Thank you for the link to the Alley video.
One more pinning point under Thwaites b4 WAIS is gone is my takeaway. Glad he has the Pollard ref in there.sidd
Today is 70th anniversary of death of Nikola Tesla, one of the world's greatest inventors http://www.teslasociety.ch/info/ton/Fiorello_La_Guardia_uber_Tesla.wma -
Tom R.
Looks to me as if you are getting a best fit ~0.0225 degrees per year–which is well in line with the global average. I do not understand your frustration? -
> Alley video
That is a good one, well worth 45 minutes to watch. -
What i find very worrying from the infos here is the mentioning of possible volcano's beneath Greenland and Antarctica. Imagine we have somewhere a slip and one of the volcano's wakes up. This could mean a potential feedback to accelerate ice mass lose more inland.
[Response: this is not something that is very likely to happen. Volcanoes under ice (as in Iceland) have big local effects, but are trivial across the whole ice sheet. – gavin]
Ray, because I was looking at local average highs, lows, extremes and so forth my units are Fahrenheit, so the 1981-2010 trend is about .0123 C for my area. When I run the global land data from NCDC for the same 30 year period I get 0.030 C. R^2 for that trend is 0.735 globally while locally it's .0334. Solid linear correlation for the former but very poor for the latter.
So it's not so much frustration as it is confusion. But, if I understand it correctly, most of the warming is being driven by higher latitudes so my trend for 36 north may be about what was expected despite the lack of correlation.
Thank guys.
Those wishing to congratulate the Editors should note that National Review's Planet Gore blog is entering its second decade of publication
New paper from the Ice2sea project on expert judgments on future contributions from Greenland and Antarctica to sea level rise:
J. L. Bamber, W. P. Aspinall. An expert judgement assessment of future sea level rise from the ice sheets. Nature Climate Change, 2013; DOI: 10.1038/nclimate1778
Summary here: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/01/130106145743.htm
I have not yet been able to read the paper, but I understand it is based on a questionnaire to glaciologists and other experts. The statistical analysis of the replies yields a contribution from ice sheets in year 2100 of +29 cm (median) to +84 cm (95% percentile).
For a plausible "high end" scenario in 2100 add ca +50 cm for thermal expansion and +20 cm for small glaciers (see Table 1 in Katsman et al 2011).
The projection of +84 cm from ice sheets in 2100 is more than the Netherlands-based expert assessment (Katsman et al 2011) with +63cm, but less than Pfeffer et al (2008) with +116 cm.
Prokaroyotes: Thanks for the Richard B. Alley video! Here is a recent popular essay by him: http://geosociety.wordpress.com/2013/01/02/warming-up-to-scott-a-first-glance-at-controls-on-glaciers/
Where is the estmate of 116cm from Pfeffer (2008) ? i am looking at table 3 in that paper, but i dont see the numbers add up to 116 cm in any one of his 3 scenarios. The numbers there for the low-1, low-2, hi scenarios are respectively
Thermal expansion 300,300,300
total SLR 785,833,2008in mm
I realize after some arithmetic that the 116cm estimate attributed to Pfeffer comes frm the High Scenario for GRIS and AIS
I found a bit more about WAIS and volcanoes
"This eruption occurred close to Pine Island Glacier on the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. The flow of this glacier towards the coast has speeded up in recent decades and it may be possible that heat from the volcano has caused some of that acceleration. However, it cannot explain the more widespread thinning of West Antarctic glaciers that together are contributing nearly 0.2mm per year to sea-level rise. This wider change most probably has its origin in warming ocean waters."
Volcanoes are an important component of the Antarctic region. They formed in diverse tectonic settings, mainly as a result of mantle plumes acting on the stationary Antarctic plate. The region also includes amongst the world's best examples of a long-lived continental margin arc (Antarctic Peninsula), a very young marginal basin (Bransfield Strait) and an oceanic island arc (South Sandwich Islands). Many extinct volcanoes are very well preserved and others are still active (e.g. Deception Island, Mount Erebus, and the South Sandwich Islands). Volcanic eruptions were common during the past 25 million years, and coincided with the great period of climatic deterioration that resulted in the formation of the Antarctic ice sheet. Many of the volcanoes show the effects of interaction with ice. BAS has played a major role in describing these effects and modelling their influences on the resulting volcanic sequences. It is important to describe and understand these interactions in geologically recent times in order to predict future configurations of the ice sheet and its role in the global system. http://www.antarctica.ac.uk/press/press_releases/press_release.php?id=341
Melting ice caps may trigger more volcanic eruptions
The shifting stress might even cause eruptions in unexpected places. "We think that during the Gjàlp eruption, magma reached the surface at an unusual location, mid-way between two volcanoes, because of these stress changes," says Pagli. McGuire thinks the Vatnajökull study is based on "perfectly reasonable" physics. However, he says that climate change presents an even more explosive threat. "It's not just unloading the crust that triggers volcanic activity but loading as well."
He and his team are looking into the effects that rising sea-levels – also a consequence of melting ice caps – will have on volcanoes. "We are going to see a massive increase in volcanic activity globally," he told New Scientist. "If we look back at previous warm periods, that is what happened."
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn13583-melting-ice-caps-may-trigger-more-volcanic-eruptions.html -
New Hansen article coming out soon:
"Sea level rise could lead to a cooler, stormier world
A catastrophic rise in sea level before the end of the century could have a hitherto-unforeseen side effect. Melting icebergs might cool the seas around Greenland and Antarctica so much that the average surface temperature of the entire planet falls by a few degrees, according to unpublished work by climate scientist James Hansen of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York City.
While it might sound welcome, the temperature differences produced by the "iceberg cooling effect" could lead to even more climate chaos in a world already devastated by extreme weather. Winter storms, for instance, are powered by the temperature differences between the poles and the equator, so there might be storms of unprecedented ferocity.
Most other climate scientists think the ice sheets will only melt slowly, largely because this is what happened at the end of past ice ages. Hansen, however, thinks this logic is flawed. The reason that sea level only rose slowly in the past, he writes, is because the planet only warmed slowly. After the last ice age, for instance, it took 10,000 years for the average global temperature to rise around 4 °C. Now the world is on course to warm this much in less than 200 years."
Do we wait till the whole article comes out, or can we discuss what is presented here?
I am curious as to whether the scenario presented in the second paragraph seems plausible to people here. It seem counter-intuitive to me, but lots of things in physics are that way. Could enough icebergs really calve off fast enough to have that kind of global cooling effect? In principle, I guess if you could immediately pulverize the ice in the ice sheets and spread it around the oceans, a lot more cold mass would be exposed to the water and air than is there is now exposed in it's ice-sheet state. But is still is hard for me to wrap my mind around the magnitude of the claim.
Tom R.,
Well, would you not expect weather to dominate more locally than globally? Again, your results are not that far off. Remember we are looking for a relatively small but consistent trend in a very noisy dataset. The noise is weather. The trend is warming.


text:
Here is my latest column for Kaiser Health News, which delves into the controversy over whether pursuing and passing health care reform was a political mistake. The subject has generated a lot of commentary online this week--in particular, a series of smart items by Ezra Klein, Josh Kraushaar, Greg Sargent, Peter Suderman, Igor Volsky, and Matt Yglesias. Later today I'll try to weigh in on that debate more explicitly.
Mere days stand between the Democrats and a major defeat at the polls. And a lot of analysts think it's because of the way President Obama handled health care. If only Obama had followed up on his campaign pledge to pursue comprehensive reform, rather than postponing action in order to work on the economy, he and his party would be in better shape today. One Sunday morning news pundit, a veteran of public radio, summed it up this way: Americans voted for change but see a president who actually changed very little and couldn't even deliver on his signature campaign promise.
It's a reasonable case -- although, to be fair, Obama's decision to drop health care reform made a lot of sense at the time. Remember what it was like in late 2008 and early 2009. The country was still suffering the aftershocks of the global financial collapse. Unemployment was skyrocketing. Campaign promises were all nice and well, but the nation faced a crisis. When Obama announced that he was putting off all of his major domestic initiatives so that he could focus on the economy, polls indicated that the public supported him.
True to his word, Obama introduced and campaigned hard for the American Recovery and Renewal Act. The Keynesian stimulus package included almost $800 billion worth of investments in public works, aid to states struggling to pay their bills and tax credits for consumers. Obama promised that the proposal would both get people spending money and help make America more productive in the future. Most economists agreed.
Obama and his allies had crafted the program carefully. Among other things, they created an oversight board that, according to subsequent evaluations, virtually eliminated fraud and waste. But if the design was right, the size wasn't. Although big enough to prevent another depression, it was too small to produce a robust economy. Unemployment hovered between a politically toxic 9 and 10 percent and, by the time Obama began pressing for more stimulus, the public, furious over bailouts of the banking and auto industries, wanted nothing to do with more spending. Obama did his best to showcase the results of the Recovery Act, making the (very accurate) argument that it saved millions of jobs. But "it might have been a lot worse" turned out to be a lousy sales pitch.
With the jobs agenda going nowhere, Obama returned eventually to health care reform -- arguing that it would address the country's long-term fiscal problems while providing some relief for its short-term misery. After all, losing a job so frequently means losing health insurance, too. But the fleeting, once-in-a-generation political moment had passed. Republicans had dropped even the pretense of cooperation, while more conservative Democrats began distancing themselves from the White House and party leadership. Lobbyists had spent the previous years coming to terms with comprehensive reform and strategizing about how to make it work for the industries they represented. But as the prospects of passing sweeping changes diminished, they reverted to their traditional, narrow agenda of protecting existing income streams.
As an effort at compromise, Obama scaled back his ambitions, calling only for an expansion of health insurance for children and some mild initiatives to link Medicare payments to quality. The administration used every legislative enticement it could, at one point promising to make the entire state of Nebraska, home of Democratic Senator Ben Nelson, a tax-free enterprise zone. But Republicans demonized the kids' expansion by claiming it would insure illegal immigrants, and attacked the payment reforms as British-style rationing. The underlying message was pretty simple: Obama wants to take what you have and give it to somebody else. That resonated with bailout-weary independent voters, since the scaled-down bill wouldn't have benefited most of them anyway. And while the conservative arguments didn't hold much sway with liberals, Obama's retreat from more ambitious initiatives left them too dispirited to fight.
Although Obama vows he will return to health care reform, the promise sounds just as empty as the one Bill Clinton made in the fall of 1994 after his own health care bill died. Meanwhile, news of a crumbling health care system continues to pour in. As the latest Census numbers confirmed, fewer and fewer people have health insurance and even those with coverage are frequently insecure. Just the other day, the papers carried a story about a 20-year-old car accident victim. Unable to stay on her parents health insurance, she had for the past year paid for a mini-med policy from McDonalds, where she working to put herself through community college. The policy covered just $2,000 of her hospital bills, which quickly ran into five figures. To pay off the debt, she's dropping out of school.
The financial burden health benefits place on corporations and government hasn't gone away, either -- earning Obama the wrath of the chattering class. A Newsweek economics columnist called Obama's failure to address health care costs, at a time when the political forces for action were finally aligned, an unforgivable act of political cowardice. It's hard to know whether voters share that assessment, but the perception that Obama whiffed at tackling the nation's major issues certainly isn't helping his approval ratings. The phrase "Carterbama" comes up a lot in conversation.
Of course, the second-guessers could be wrong. Imagine for a second that the future had turned out differently -- that, after passing the stimulus, Obama turned to health care reform and made it the centerpiece of his domestic agenda. Maybe the fight would have turned into a fourteen-month-long political boondoggle, helping to turn independents against Washington and allowing conservatives to rally. Maybe the final bill would have included major compromises, leaving the liberal base dispirited. And maybe, after it was all done, Democrats would be likely to lose the House and in danger of surrendering the Senate--with losses even more severe than the ones they face now.
It's possible -- just as it's possible that the outcome of this election actually has very little to do with health care. It could have been determined back in February, 2009, when Obama and his allies settled on a too-small stimulus -- whether out of political necessity or economic misjudgment -- while standing behind necessary but unpopular rescues of the banking and auto industries. The truth about these counterfactuals is that you can never really know what might have been if history had unfolded differently.
One thing is certain, however. Had Obama succeeded in passing health care reform, he would have brought financial security and access to basic care to millions of Americans, while beginning the hard and necessary work of reengineering the health system to make it more efficient. Yeah, the voters might still be really angry. The Democrats might still be on the verge of a historic defeat. But the country would be a lot better off.
Update: Apparently I'm not the first visit to this parallel universe. Ezra was here a few months ago.
This column is a collaboration between TNR and Kaiser Health News. KHN is an editorially independent news service and is a program of the Kaiser Family Foundation, a nonpartisan health care policy research organization, which is not affiliated with Kaiser Permanente.


text:
The beginner's guide to Linux Mint
Dive into Linux Mint's brand new desktop interface
Linux Mint has just released its latversion, Mint 12, and has now become the last of the big three distributions to switch to a radically new desktop interface.
We found that it's an impressive compromise between Gnome Shell's new fangled way of doing things and the more traditional desktops of the past.
If you're intrigued by this and want to investigate for yourself, get a copy of Linux Mint 12, this guide, and see what you can do with the new Mint.
We'll begin by taking a quick tour of the default interface, and then move on to cover how you can customise it. We'll also take a look at Mint's package manager so that you know how to add and remove applications.
Choosing your desktop
Before we even begin to examine the new desktop, however, let's start by taking a look at Mint's new login screen. This screen is quite different to past Mint releases, since, along with Ubuntu, they've switched away from Gnome's default login manager to the more customisable LightDM.
At the top-right of the screen, you can find some basic controls, including some (limited) accessibility options, volume control and the option to power-off the computer. The centre-left of the screen is where you log in.
By default, one user or another will be highlighted by a grey box, with a password entry field at the ready. Other users and guest sessions can be selected by clicking on their name above or below this.
The most important thing to know about this new login screen is that you can use it to select which desktop you want to use. So, if you decide that you don't like Mint's new desktop, you can use it to switch to Mate, its port of Gnome 2, which faithfully recreates past Mint desktops.
If you want to install something entirely different, such as KDE or Xfce, you'll also be able to select those from the login screen. To do this, select your username from the list and then, before typing your password and pressing enter, click the small cog in the top right of the box.
From this menu, you can select between all available desktops. Whichever desktop you choose will remain the default until you change it again.
Meet the Shell
Now that you're familiar with the login screen, let's take a look at Mint 12's default interface. Make sure you've selected Gnome as the desktop to use and then enter your password and log in.
The first thing to note is that, unlike past Mint releases, there are two panels on the desktop – one at the top and another at the bottom. Looking at the top panel from left to right, there's:
The infinity icon, which launches the Overview mode – more on this later.
The system tray, where applications can store alerts or quick access controls.
The indicator area, where you can control the volume and select which network you want to connect to.
The clock applet, which expands to a calender when clicked.
The status menu, which lets you log out, shutdown, control your availability in chat and access system settings.
All of this, with the exception of the infinity icon, should be fairly self-explanatory.
Clicking on any of the icons to the right-hand side brings up further information and options for you to change. Clicking on the speaker icon, for instance, will allow you to adjust the volume of your computer's speakers and access the sound settings.
Of these icons, the Status menu provides the most comprehensive set of options. The only one of these that requires explanation is Notifications.
When you insert a DVD, or someone contacts you via instant messenger, Gnome Shell will usually alert you by raising a black rectangle at the bottom of the screen. These notifications are useful since they allow you to take further actions in response to the alert, but if you want to focus without any distractions they can also be annoying.
The designers of Gnome Shell recognised this, so put the Notifications option in the Status menu. This way, you can turn off all notifications when you don't want to be disturbed. Just remember to turn them on again later.
The bottom panel
Almost everything in the top panel is standard Gnome Shell; the bottom panel is all Linux Mint's doing. On the left-hand side of the bottom panel is a menu for launching applications, the spiritual successor to the Mint menu.
This menu is split in to three main columns. The left most one shows your favourite applications, which can be set in the Overview mode; the middle one shows categories of applications to make browsing easier; and the right most one shows the applications within those categories.
If you prefer a keyboard to a mouse, you can use the Search bar at the top to quickly find the application you're looking for by typing its name.
Next to the menu is the show desktop icon, which will minimise all your open windows. Next to this is the window list. If you have no windows open, it will look like a big, empty space; otherwise, it will be filled with buttons representing your open and minimised windows – it works just like the window list in Gnome 2 did.
At the other end of this panel are the desktop switcher and Mint's new notification toggle. By default, Gnome Shell creates only a single desktop, but automatically adds a second as soon as you open any applications and so on; if you remove all applications from a desktop, Gnome Shell will then remove it. Mint's switcher will immediately mirror Gnome Shell's changes to the number of desktops.
The notification icon is a clever addition. By default, after you dismiss Gnome Shell notifications without doing anything, they disappear in to a small black bar at the bottom of the screen. You would ordinarilly raise this by moving your mouse to the bottom right-hand corner, but with the new taskbar, you would often accidentally cause it to appear and interfere with what you were trying to do.
Instead, Mint has made it so that you need to click this exclamation mark to get access to the notifications.
Get daily insight, inspiration and deals in your inbox
Get the hottest deals available in your inbox plus news, reviews, opinion, analysis and more from the TechRadar team.


text:
Voyante Nice
Your local fortune telling services
Fortune telling services in Nice
Clairvoyance always arouses a certain curiosity. Learn more about it and how it works.
Definition of Perspective
In general, clairvoyance is a highly intuitive and psychological awareness that is innate or developed through continued spiritual practice later in one's life. These skills vary depending on the individual who is practicing them.
In general, clairvoyance has 6 types of clairvoyance:
classic view;
Empathy Vision
verbal vision;
The vision of the prophet
Gain clairvoyance by manifesting or healing.
While the medium has the ability to communicate with the spiritual master or the deceased, the seer is defined as someone with extrasensory perception that enables them to obtain information about people, events, places or objects. Prophets are able to see, hear, and feel things that are invisible to ordinary mortals.
Nice ( NEESS, French: [nis]; Niçard: Niça, classical norm, or Nissa, nonstandard, pronounced [ˈnisa]; Italian: Nizza [ˈnittsa]; Ancient Greek: Νίκαια; Latin: Nicaea) is the seventh most populous urban area in France and the prefecture of the Alpes-Maritimes department. The metropolitan area of Nice extends beyond the administrative city limits, with a population of nearly 1 million on an area of 744 km2 (287 sq mi). Located on the French Riviera, the southeastern coast of France on the Mediterranean Sea, at the foot of the French Alps, Nice is the second-largest French city on the Mediterranean coast and second-largest city in the Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur region after Marseille. Nice is approximately 13 kilometres (8.1 mi) from the principality of Monaco and 30 kilometres (19 mi) from the French–Italian border. Nice's airport serves as a gateway to the region.
Aco de Coudrian, Carabacel, Caucade, Châteauneuf, Cimiez, Cimiez, En Tourrette, Fabron, Gairaut, Gambetta, Ginestière, Iscles des Moulins, Jean-Médecin, L'Abadie, L'Ariane


text:
Auschwitz To Hessisch Lichtenau Transport ListIntroduction by Peter Landé
This database includes 1,000 records of Hungarian women transferred from Auschwitz to Hessisch Lichtenau in September 1944. BackgroundIn late 1944 and early 1945, the labor shortage inside Germany had become so acute that tens of thousands of prisoners, males and females, Jews and non-Jews, were sent westward from camps such as Auschwitz to work in German factories. One of these transports, with 1,000 Hungarian women, was sent in September 1944 from Auschwitz to Hessisch Lichtenau, a small town in eastern Hesse, southeast of Kassel in Germany, where they worked in a munitions factory, a sub-camp of Buchenwald. In late October 1944, 206 of these women who had been ill or otherwise unable to work were sent back to Auschwitz, presumably to be murdered. The 206 women sent back are noted in the database. Almost all of the remaining women survived in Hessisch Lichtenau. However, as American troops approached the area, they were sent by train to Dresden and then Leipzig, and finally on a march to Wurzen, where they were liberated. It is not known how many of the women perished during these transports/marches, though ITS records could be consulted for individual cases where the survivors ended up in Displaced Persons (DP) camps. An extensive description of the conditions in Hessisch Lichtenau where the women worked is available in Dieter Vaupel's Das Au�enkommando Hessisch Lichtenau des Konzentrationslagers Buchenwald 1944/1945: eine Dokumentation (Kassel: 1984). DatabaseThis database includes 1,000 records of Hungarian women transferred from Auschwitz to Hessisch Lichtenau in September 1944. The fields for this database are as follows:
Occupations have been entered from the source documents in German. To assist the researcher with translations of the German occupation entries, please see the JewishGen InfoFile at: http://www.jewishgen.org/InfoFiles/GermanOccs.htm. AcknowledgmentsThe information contained in this database was indexed from the files of the United States Holocaust Memorial Museum (1997 A-0324, reel 3). The list of women sent back to Auschwitz comes from the Vaupel book cited above. Kurt Friedlaender, a JewishGen volunteer, compiled the list. In addition, thanks to JewishGen Inc. for providing the website and database expertise to make this database accessible. Special thanks to Warren Blatt and Michael Tobias for their continued contributions to Jewish genealogy. Particular thanks to Nolan Altman, coordinator of Holocaust files. Nolan Altman Searching the DatabaseThis database is searchable via JewishGen's Holocaust Database and the JewishGen Hungary Database.
Last Update: 16 May 2010 by MFK
Edmond J. Safra Plaza | 36 Battery Place | 646.494.2972 | firstname.lastname@example.com | |


text:
Basic concepts
equivalences in/of -categories
Universal constructions
Local presentation
Extra stuff, structure, properties
homotopy theory, (∞,1)-category theory, homotopy type theory
flavors: stable, equivariant, rational, p-adic, proper, geometric, cohesive, directed…
models: topological, simplicial, localic, …
see also algebraic topology
Paths and cylinders
Homotopy groups
Basic facts
The fundamental -groupoid of a topological space is the ∞-groupoid whose k-morphisms are the -dimensional paths in . This is the higher refinement of the fundamental groupoid .
It is also sometimes called the -Poincaré groupoid of the space, in analogy to the term Poincaré groupoid for the fundamental groupoid.
The following definition is appropriate if we take a Kan complex as the definition of -groupoid.
The fundamental -groupoid of a topological space is given by the Kan complex
which is the singular simplicial complex of .
This construction is right adjoint to geometric realization.
By choosing horn-fillers this becomes an algebraic Kan complex. In terms of these the homotopy hypothesis has a direct proof, exhibited by a Quillen equivalence
due to (Nikolaus).
One may regard the singular simplicial complex functor as the instance of the general abstract notion of fundamental ∞-groupoid in a locally ∞-connected (∞,1)-topos by regarding Top as a cohesive (∞,1)-topos. See discrete ∞-groupoid for more on this.
For other models of ∞Grpd there are correspondingly other constructions:
One can consider strict ∞-groupoid versions of the fundamental -groupoid. These lose information about the homotopy type of the space, though, but are more tractable and may give in some applications all the information that one is interested in.
The study of strict fundamental -groupoids have been pursued by Ronnie Brown and his school.
There is a strict homotopy 2-groupoid for a Hausdorff space defined spring , and a weak homotopy 2-groupoid for a general space (by the same authors). They later introduced a homotopy double groupoid. There is no -dimensional version of these ideas on offer.
A strict cubical omega-groupoid for a filtered space was defined by Brown and Higgins in 1981. Form the filtered cubical complex which in dimension consists of filtered maps and take filter homotopy classes of these relative to the vertices. The proof that the compositions in are inherited by is one of the key points of the development.
It turns out that is equivalent in a clear sense to the crossed complex defined using relative homotopy groups by Blakers in 1948 (with other terminology) and that the homotopy types modelled by crossed complexes, or by the corresponding globular or cubical gadget, are restricted, essentially to the linear homotopy types, with no quadratic information. Nonetheless, it is well known in mathematics that linear approximations can be useful.
Loday's paper of 1982 on Spaces with finitely many homotopy groups introduced the entirely new idea of a cubical resolution of a space. Some details were completed by Richard Steiner. Loday also introduced the fundamental cat-n-group of an -cube of spaces. In this way we get a model of a space by a multiple groupoid in which the -dimensional homotopy of occurs in the right place in the model. Also you can calculate something with this model, and it has led to new algebraic constructions, such as a nonabelian tensor product of groups, with homotopical applications.
These strict groupoid models do satisfy the dimension condition.
The 1-truncation of is the fundamental groupoid of :
For a locally contractible topological space, the fundamental -groupoid is equivalent to the fundamental ∞-groupoid of a locally ∞-connected (∞,1)-topos of the (∞,1)-sheaf (∞,1)-topos .
Details on this are at geometric homotopy groups in an (∞,1)-topos.
This perspective suggests that when is not locally contractible, a better replacement for its fundamental -groupoid (as usually defined) is the shape of . As discussed there, this coincides with the traditional shape theory of .
fundamental -groupoids incarnated as sSet-enriched groupoids aka "Dwyer-Kan simplicial groupoids" are known as Dwyer-Kan loop groupoids.
fundamental ∞-groupoid in a locally ∞-connected (∞,1)-topos / of a locally ∞-connected (∞,1)-topos
as a strict 2-groupoid:
as a weak 2-groupoid:
See also:
J.-L. Loday, Spaces with finitely many homotopy groups, J. Pure Appl. Alg., 24 (1982) 179–202.
J. M. Casas, G. Ellis, M. Ladra, T. Pirashvili, Derived functors and the homology of -types, J. Algebra 256, 583–598 (2002).
The direct proof of the homotopy hypothesis for the algebraic version of the fundamental -groupoid is in
Strict versions of fundamental -groupoids are discussed in
See also
Ronnie Brown and Philip Higgins, Colimit theorems for relative homotopy groups, J. Pure Appl. Algebra 22 (1981) 11-41.
Ronnie Brown, A new higher homotopy groupoid: the fundamental globular -groupoid of a filtered space, Homotopy, Homology and Applications, 10 (2008), No. 1, pp.327-343.
Richard Steiner, Resolutions of spaces by -cubes of fibrations, J. London Math. Soc.(2), 34, 169-176, 1986.
Last revised on April 26, 2023 at 08:09:33. See the history of this page for a list of all contributions to it.


text:
Inmate Records Search
Jail records, court & arrest records, mugshots and even judicial reports
Madison County Jail, GA
Madison County Jail, Madison County, County Jail
1436 Hwy 98 West, Danielsville, GA, 30633
Madison County Jail inmate locator: Release Date, Who's in jail, Booking Date, Sentenced On, Code, Cell Location, FileNo, Court Date, Charges, Degree Level, Institution, Arrests, Mugshots, Bond, Bookings, Warrant No, Information Recorded, Inmate List.
Madison County Jail is a medium-security detention center that is located in Danielsville, Georgia. The city once had the highest suicide rates of any other city in the country. Most of the inmates sentenced here will not be serving longer than two years in jail.
The jail also accepts inmates from surrounding municipalities and from the U.S. Marshal's Service. The Madison County Jail is run by the Madison County Sheriff's Office, and most of the inmates are waiting for trial and/or sentencing.
The Madison County Jail also has a work-release program. Inmates are released from jail during the days, so that they can work. You should apply to the work release program before being sentenced, as this will minimize the time it takes to potentially get into the program.
Inmates can make outbound calls that are quite expensive, and add up to around $15 each for those who choose to receive the call.
The Madison County Jail was originally built in 1963.
Madison County Sheriff's Office
Address: 1436 Highway 98, Danielsville, Georgia, 30633
Phone: 706-795-6202
Fax: 706-795-2999
Website: website
How to Find Someone in Madison County Jail
Inmate Records Search
Jail records, court & arrest records, mugshots and even judicial reports
You can search through the inmates at the Madison County Jail using the following link: http://californiajailroster.com/sheriff/calaveras-county-jail/. You will have to enter the inmate's first and last name.
You will obtain results regarding his or her arrest, charges, bail information, projected release, arresting agency, and more.
Sending a Mail/Care Package
The mail policy for Madison County Jail inmates is generous in that it:
Allows for unlimited sending and receiving of mail to inmates.
Allows for an unlimited amount of pages, and allows writing on both sides of the paper.
Photographs are a more sensitive issue. Inmates cannot have more than three photographs in their possession at any given time, and they must be no larger than 4" by 6"
Newspapers, magazines, and books can only be received as new, from the publisher, and if the inmate is staying at the facility for longer than 30 days. The material cannot incite race violence, or violence of any kind. It cannot encourage any sort of unlawful behavior, either.
This is an inmate mailing address for an inmate staying at Madison County Jail:
Inmate Name
Madison County Jail
1436 Hwy 98 West, Danielsville, GA, 30633
Sending Money
The inmate commissary at the Madison County Jail sells items such as toiletries, candy, food, and more. There is also a facility manager that handles the sales of these items. The inmate store is self-sufficient.
Money can be placed on an inmate's account through this link: www.smartdeposit.com. You will need the inmate's arrest number.
Bring cash to the jail lobby kiosk to place on an inmate's account.
Bring a debit/credit card to the jail lobby kiosk to place on an inmate's account.
Phone calls
There are phones located in inmate "pods" that can be accessed on two days: Saturday and Sunday. The phones can be used from 8 AM to 10 PM.
Madison County Jail staff can deny rights to the phone as a disciplinary action.
All phone calls will be billed collect or funds can be placed on an account. Phones aren't operated or maintained by jail staff.
All visitors are checked at the front lobby. Visitors that are 17 and under must be accompanied by a parent and/or legal guardian. Visitors also cannot carry personal items into the visitation area.
Visitors and inmates at Madison County Jail cannot write notes to each other. They also cannot use sign language to communicate.
A prisoner is only able to have visitors if they have been in jail for 90 days.
If an inmate is released by bond or by other means, he/she will not be allowed visitors.
All visitation scheduling and requests are done through Video Visit Anywhere: http://www.videovisitanywhere.com
Visiting Hours
Tuesday: 7:30 AM to 9:00 PM
Wednesday: 7:30 AM to 9:00 PM
Friday: 7:30 AM to 9:00 PM
Saturday: 7:30 Am to 2:30 PM
Refer the map below to find the driving directions.


text:
Peace of mind. Longer protection.
Toyota Service Care plans last for two years and unlimited miles. Coverage starts immediately once purchased and can be renewed again and again to continue your benefits.
Maintenance Services
- Engine oil and filter change1
- Rotate tires
- Multi-point inspection
- Inspect and adjust fluid levels
- Toyota Genuine Parts
- Toyota-trained technicians
- Maintenance reminders
Any Mileage
Any Year
Is Toyota Service Care right for your vehicle?
Regardless of your mileage, any Toyota can be eligible for Toyota Service Care as long as it is not currently covered by ToyotaCare or any other prepaid maintenance plan.


text:
Important Notice:Functionality is not guaranteed on devices that are updated to iOS 8.
Experience one of the most thrilling chapters of the Resident Evil saga. Featuring an all-new high-resolution art set designed to take full advantage of iPad's larger display, the game captures the Resident Evil world in terrifying detail. Face an enemy quicker, smarter and scarier than any zombie and put your skills to the ultimate test.
It has been six years since the destruction of Raccoon City. Leon S. Kennedy, formerly Raccoon City Police Department's idealistic rookie cop, is now a U.S. agent with a top-secret mission to rescue Ashley Graham, the President's daughter. Leon begins his investigation in an undisclosed Spanish-speaking village in Europe, where he encounters a horde of unruly villagers who pledge their lives to Los Illuminados, the cult that perpetrated Ashley's kidnapping. As Leon encounters unimaginable horrors, he must find out who or what is behind everything.
•High-resolution graphics optimized for the iPad's larger display.
•"Visual Pad" control system makes gameplay a fluid and intuitive experience. Players can engage in running gun fights against crowds of enemies, climb ladders, equip binoculars and jump out windows.
•3rd person perspective camera for a panoramic view of the action.
•Shake the iPad to reload.
•Download alternate costumes for Leon as DLC.
•Play through "Story Mode" to unlock "Mercenary Mode", a separate game mode with pre-set goals, weapons and conditions.
•"Coin Shoot" shooting gallery mode where the where the goal is to destroy as many blue coins as possible within the time limit.
•A total of five difficulty levels: "Beginner", "Normal", "Professional", "Hell" and "Extreme"
Follow us on Twitter: http://twitter.com/icapcom
Check out other awesome games from Capcom: Who Wants To Be A Millionaire 2010, Are You Smarter Than A 5TH Grader?™ 2010, Mega Man® II, KENKEN®, Resident Evil: Degeneration™, Resident Evil® 4 Ghosts™'N Goblins, Street Fighter® IV and more!
Genre:Action, Adventure
Release:Apr 02, 2010
Updated:Nov 30, -0001
TouchArcade Rating:Unrated
User Rating: (2)
Your Rating:unrated
Compatibility:HD Universal


text:
Do you have a question about part # 118276?
Please tell us your vehicle year, make, model, and version, and as much as you can about your particular needs so our Experts can provide you with the best possible response.
What our customers are saying:
I would gladly recommend etrailer to anyone. all of the people I have had contact with have been outstanding.
Questions Asked About Part Number 118276


text:
All the benefits and perks you need for you and your family:
*$20,000 Sign-on Bonus and $3,000 Relocation available for eligible candidates (see terms below)
Benefits from Day One
Paid Days Off from Day One
Debt-free Education (Certifications and Degrees without out-of-pocket tuition expense)
Nursing Clinical Ladder Program
Our promise to you:
Joining AdventHealth is about being part of something bigger. It's about belonging to a community that believes in the wholeness of each person, and serves to uplift others in body, mind and spirit. AdventHealth is a place where you can thrive professionally, and grow spiritually, by Extending the Healing Ministry of Christ. Where you will be valued for who you are and the unique experiences you bring to our purpose-minded team. All while understanding that together we are even better.
Schedule: Full Time
Shift : Nights, 7p-7a, Weekend Rotation Required
Location : 7727 Lake Underhill Rd, Orlando, FL 32822
Unit Highlights:
· AdventHealth East Orlando, a 265-bed community hospital, has been serving East Orlando residents since 1941 as an innovative local leader that fills a vital need in a fast-growing area.
· A recent 200,000 square-foot expansion project upgraded the hospital to 265 beds, with a spacious patient tower and 80 new private rooms designed to enhance the holistic care experience. Annual number of emergency cases: 89,018
· 40 Bed, MedSurg/Ortho w/Telemetry Based Unit, Patient Ratio 5:1
The role you'll contribute:
The Registered Professional Nurse (RN) is responsible for providing and supervising direct and indirect total nursing care responsibilities to identified age specific groups. Utilizes the nursing process (assessing, planning, implementing and evaluating) in achieving the goals of the nursing department. Adheres to the AdventHealth Corporate Compliance Plan and to all rules and regulations of all applicable local, state and federal agencies and accrediting bodies. Actively participates in outstanding customer service and accepts responsibility in maintaining relationships that are equally respectful to all.
The value you'll bring to the team:
NURSING PROCESS: Completes timely assessments per Practice Guidelines including physiological, psychological, developmental, sociocultural, spiritual, and life-style factors, including signs of abuse or neglect. Makes appropriate decisions and interventions and nursing diagnosis according to patients actual or potential health conditions or needs. (American Nurses Association [ANA], 2012)
NURSING PROCESS: Based on the assessment and diagnosis, sets measurable and achievable short and long-range goals for the patient (ANA, 2012), assisting in the development and implementation of an individualized plan of care. Prioritizes and completes follow up assessments, evaluates and modifies plan of care as needed. Nursing practice reflects mutual goal setting and whole person care including meeting the needs of the mind, body and spirit. (King, 1995)
NURSING KNOWLEDGE: Demonstrates the ability to assess and interpret diagnostic data relative to patient age and condition, including, but not limited to lab results, non-invasive monitoring data and interdisciplinary team notes. Nursing practice reflects the application of knowledge and skills pertaining to all diagnoses, procedures, medications, complications, and equipment associated with unit patient population.
PATIENT SAFETY: Nursing practice reflects the application of knowledge, skill and adherence to all pertinent regulatory standards. Follows strict infection prevention precautions. Adheres to policy and procedure regarding all aspects of medication safety. Practice reflects importance of patient teaching and takes advantage of opportunities, both planned and unplanned, to carry it out in accordance with plan of care.
COMMUNICATION: Promotes an exceptional patient experience by abiding to compassion and image standards and fostering excellent nurse-patient relationships through effective/therapeutic communication with the patient, family, and visitors, including but not limited to and as applicable, hourly rounding. Exhibits ability to utilize appropriate techniques, verbiage, and resources in all interactions with the patient to their level of understanding. Communicates effectively with interdisciplinary team by completing thorough hand off communication in all situations. Follows chain of command when appropriate.
* Terms: 24 month Employment Contract Required for Sign-On and Relocation
Sign-on Eligibility:
Applicable experience required.
Internal Candidates and Rehires within 12 months are not eligible.
Relocation Eligibility:
The expertise and experiences you'll need to succeed:
Minimum qualifications :
Graduate of a school of nursing
Current valid State of Florida or multistate license as a Registered Nurse
Basic Life Support (BLS) Certification
Advanced Life Support Certifications (ACLS, PALS, NRP) per specialty/unit requirements
Preferred qualifications:
Bachelor's degree in Nursing
Professional Certification
This facility is an equal opportunity employer and complies with federal, state and local anti-discrimination laws, regulations and ordinances. The salary range reflects the anticipated base pay range for this position. Individual compensation is determined based on skills, experience and other relevant factors within this pay range. The minimums and maximums for each position may vary based on geographical location.
Category: Nursing
Organization: AdventHealth East Orlando
Schedule: Full-time
Shift: 3 - Night
Req ID: 24005118
We are an equal opportunity employer and do not tolerate discrimination based on race, color, creed, religion, national origin, sex, marital status, age or disability/handicap with respect to recruitment, selection, placement, promotion, wages, benefits and other terms and conditions of employment.
Job Schedule: Full-time
Pay Range: $31.53 -
Location: Orlando, FL
Job ID: 24005118
Job Family: Nursing
Shift: 3 - Night


text:
DE CLERCQ, PATRICK - Ghent University | |
Coudron, Thomas | |
Riddick, Eric |
Submitted to: Elsevier
Publication Type: Book / Chapter Publication Acceptance Date: 1/3/2013 Publication Date: 11/1/2013 Citation: De Clercq, P., Coudron, T.A., Riddick, E.W. 2013. Production of heteropteran predators. In: Morales-Ramos, J., Rojas, G.M., Shapiro-Ilan, D., editors. Mass Production of Beneficial Organisms. New York: Elsevier. p. 57-100. Interpretive Summary: Predatory bugs are important natural enemies of insects that destroy our crop plants. There is a need to develop sustainable technologies to produce these natural enemies on a commercial scale to support the practice of biological control. In this book chapter, we critically review the published information on mass production of predatory bugs on a global scale. Only several predatory bugs are commercially available for biological control of pests. Many opportunities still exist to increase the availability and cost-effectiveness of these predators perhaps through development of artificial diets and substrates that maximize their growth, development, and reproduction. Increasing our knowledge of genetics, developmental and reproductive biology could stimulate more technological advances in the mass production of predatory bugs. Technical Abstract: This chapter treats several key aspects of rearing procedures for predatory bugs. The value of natural, factitious, and artificial foods for the major species used in biological control is reviewed. Whereas several types of factitious foods are routinely used in the production of heteropteran predators, the adoption of artificial diets in mass production systems has remained negligible. Special attention is given to the implications of zoophytophagy for the production of predatory bugs. The use of plants and plant materials as sources of water and supplementary nutrients, and as living and oviposition substrates is discussed, as well as the potential of alternative substrates. The impact of crowding and cannibalism and of the presence of micro-organisms on the performance of rearing systems is also addressed. Although important gaps in our ability to produce heteropteran predators are identified, equally important is that production will clearly benefit from new technologies that are rapidly expanding our knowledge of genetics, and developmental and reproductive biology. |