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fun began the moment i arrived, when the pilot announced it was snowing! i excitedly text rose this and she, less than enthusiastically responded she knew. she more than once smiled at my happyness seeing the snow. it's funny how quickly you get over that she told me. because by now she was. but she was glad it showed up for me.
the adventure begins where rose lives.
the adventure of stopping to look at and admire the snow. and touch it a lot .
the adventure where i (blissfully) choose new wool at purl soho and hannah rose takes liberties with my camera.
the delicious adventure of eating and shopping and sometimes doing both at once.
where rose goes to work at her bar tending job and i tag along adventure.
taking a taxicab home in the wee hours of the morning after a successful night of work.
the day in which hannah rose and i go to school except while she's in class i entertain myself, on campus, and off.
where we meet between classes for lunch and and an impromptu manicure and at the same time make new friends adventure.
the late date dress adventure.
hannah rose told me she had been invited to the ballet. tonight. but she didn't know if she should accept since i was in town. it only took one moment for me to insist she should go, after all, this was the new york city ballet, not an opportunity to be missed. but, she didn't have anything to wear. so when she headed back for her last class, i walked straight down lexington avenue to the shops.
acting as her personal assistant (hee hee) i took photos of potential dresses and sent them to her.
when she got out, at 5:30 pm we met and hurried back to the store. in the meantime she hadn't heard from her date and was beginning to feel concern. at 6 o'clock she got a message. she was to meet him at the lincoln center at 7 pm.
this was a big dilemma. first, she would not have time to return home to get dressed and second, i would have to find my own way to her apartment. alone. in the city. in the dark, and it is four trains away. and i don't know where it is. i'm petrified.
so, back to her. we narrowed down a dress, but now we had to find shoes and tights and maybe even accessories. we are each on different floors, searching, texting (where are you?), trying to stay calm. in a long queue to pay and then racing back to the dressing room to get ready.
we raced out to the street and hailed two cabs. she described in detail where my driver should take me (washington heights, a long way away) and she jumped in another going the opposite direction.
her roommate and i waited up. she arrived home with coronas and cheezits, and stories of her evening. the best part, she arrived five minutes before her date. and when it was over he asked her to la boheme next (and he told her she was gorgeous). this time she'll be ready.
the adventure of chelsea and how green sleeves had it's moment in nyc.
visiting the galleries in chelsea was greatly anticipated. so was highline park. what i didn't know was that there are very high end boutiques there too. they are unmarked and no photos are allowed (go here if you're interested). we went into comme des garcon and balenciaga, in between gallery searching.
if you've ever been in a couture boutique than you know how it feels. and especially if your in a wooly mammoth patagonia jacket and ugg boots. haha.
comme des garcon was as austere and stark and elegant as you could imagine. we recieved the look of disdain and i was asked to hand over my coffee cup (tea, i was cold). and then we looked around. 1000.00 for a slip of a teeshirt, yes please, i'll take two!
when it was time to leave, i went in search of my cup, more because it was wearing a green sleeve than for the tea. it was on a table all alone. in the center. picture ultra modern minimalism. then my little sweater wearing cup. all the sales people were looking at it. all five were interested. 'did you make this'? ' it is wonderful' ' you should sell them' . i felt like i had given birth to it. if i didn't care that they look down on me, why did it make me so happy that they complimented?
the train and the boy and the happy girl.
back to brooklyn.
rose is moving back to brooklyn this week. now when she says mama, i'm making tea. i'll know just where.
numerous adventures didn't make it into this extra long post. there were the friends i made, and how i got my name, thornbush, the tattoo night (not rose) and shopping at catbird. sleeping in a room the size of a short subway train, with four girls and a broken boiler. and the whiskey, oh the lovely whiskey.
thank you for everything my rose hannah daughter. your life is an adventure and i am proud, so proud of you. when i told you i was afraid and that you are much braver than me, you told me it was not true. you said i was brave and i had taught you how to be.
thank you for that.
thank you friends for coming along,
♥ lori + hannah rose


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Bh Cosmetics 88 Colors Cool Shimmer Eyeshadow Palette
What The Company Claims:
• Vamp it up with the vibrant va-va-voom of the 88 Color Cool Shimmer Palette's luminous glow!
• Gleaming coppers and charcoal greys create subtle mystery.
• Sparkling sapphires and exotic emeralds glitter like a precious gem.
• Surprising poppy pinks and wild tangerine hues liven it up even more.
• Conquer the room in this exciting palette's cool blaze of colour!
• Mica and Titanium Dioxide.
• Dimethicone.
• Talc.
• Magnesium Stearate.
• Methylparaben.
• Propylparaben.
20.95 dollars+12.45 dollars shipping. So, it comes to around INR 1500.
A few close-up pictures of the palette.
What is Good About Bh Cosmetics 88 Cool Shimmer EyeShadow Palette:
• The product has 88 beautiful, shimmery eyeshadows and almost all possible colours I can think of, from shades in brown, pink, green, golden, silver, etc. You think of a shade and it has it. It has an amazing plethora of colors with which you have endless options to create varied eye looks.
• The powder eyeshadows are good quality, soft, finely milled and can be applied/blended easily. These are not chalky at all.
• The pigmentation of the colours is good as it is and with a base/primer, they look intense.
• These eyeshadows have very little fall out.
• This is a great investment for makeup enthusiasts who want to practice eye makeup looks and do not wish to spend on individual/single eyeshadows.
• I would consider it fairly priced, as if you work out the calculation, one eyeshadow in the palette would cost you Rs. 17.5 😛 😛
• The product came safe/securely wrapped in numerous sheets of paper and bubble wrap, and not even a single eyeshadow was damaged in transit from US to Delhi.
• Sleek packaging.
What is Not So Good About Bh Cosmetics 88 Cool Shimmer EyeShadow Palette:
• These are not easily available in India and a lot of shipping has to be paid to order these online.
• If you prefer matte colours over shimmery, you may not like it.
This is a video you can check for eye makeup tutorial using this Eye Makeup using BH Cosmetics Palette.
IMBB Rating: 4/5 :-* :-* :-* :-*
BH Cosmetics Foundation Primer
Bh Cosmetics Brushes
BH Cosmetics Waterproof Lip Liners
BH Cosmetics Eye and Lip Primer
BH Cosmetics 24 x 7 Eyeliner
Coastal Scents 88 Color EyeShadow Palette Review, Photos
LA Colors Baked Eyeshadow
Nature's Essence Natural Hair Colors Burgundy
LA Colors Auto Lip Liner Burgundy Review, Swatch
Cool & Cool Deep Magnetic Cleansing Charcoal Nose Strip
Davidoff Cool Water Woman Eau De Toilette
E.L.F Shimmer Eye Pencils – Review & Swatches
MAC Sheertone Shimmer Blush in Peachykeen
Bobbi Brown Shimmer Brick Bronze Review, Swatch, FOTD
Boots 17 Instant Glow Shimmer Pearls
Eyes: How to Choose Eyeshadow Color
How to Make Eyeshadow Stay Longer
How to Apply Eyeshadow
How to Apply Emo Eyeshadow

subset: commoncrawl


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Social engineering by government always ends in disaster.
Social engineering occurs when government passes laws and regulations that force citizens to behave the way government thinks they should behave. Prohibition is a great example of social engineering. In 1919, government decided that its citizens should not drink "intoxicating liquors." This "government-knows-best" idea produced more than a decade of lawlessness far worse than citizen intoxication. Prohibition was repealed in 1933.
Free people in a free market always produce the best products, most efficiently, at the lowest price. Every time government "engineering" intrudes into the market, products, efficiency, price – and consumers – ultimately suffer.
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Social engineering is always proposed with the best of intentions and sold with grandiose utopian promises. The promises are rarely realized, and the unintended consequences are never anticipated.
Among the goals of the social engineers in the 1970s was a "right" to affordable housing. A U.N. treaty set forth this right and Congress quickly enacted the Community Reinvestment Act, which required lending institutions to extend loans to people who would not qualify for a loan in a free market. Social engineers in the Clinton administration were not satisfied with the number of loans made to unqualified people and further intruded into the free market by further relaxing lending standards.
Social engineers applauded the great success of their engineering, claiming more people than ever before were now homeowners. All was well with the world – until the unqualified borrowers failed to meet their responsibilities and defaulted on their loan payments.
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Social engineers are quick to point the finger of blame at "greedy capitalists," but the blame lies not with the market, nor the market's propensity to profit. The blame lies squarely with the social engineers who dared to force the market to make loans to people who could not, or would not, repay them. The result is the current economic disaster.
Government, at every level, whether controlled by Democrats or Republicans, is full of social engineers. The recent elections added a bumper crop of rambunctious social engineers, all eager to intrude into the market wherever possible.
"Cap-and-trade" is high on the priority list of social engineers. It is being sold using the utopian promise that it will reduce greenhouse emissions and thereby save the planet from global warming. It will do neither, of course, but the inevitable unanticipated consequences will be far worse than anything yet experienced.
Social engineers will "cap" allowable greenhouse gas emissions at a level they determine to be appropriate. This level will be substantially below the 1990 level, and require a dramatic reduction in the use of fossil fuel. This maximum emissions cap will be allocated among all the businesses that produce greenhouse gases, and each business will be required to reduce their emissions to this arbitrary limit – or – purchase "credits" from businesses that have not used their entire allotment. This is also known as putting an arbitrary value on hot air.
Businesses will be forced to buy credits – and pass the cost on to their customers. Or, they can invest in new technology, if available, and pass these costs on to their customers. Either way, higher energy costs are inevitable.
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Energy is the fuel that powers the entire economy. This cap-and-trade engineering will force a reduction in energy use, forcing a reduction in economic output, at higher prices. The magnitude of economic impact of this scheme is negative beyond comprehension. The tragedy is that the scheme is totally unnecessary and, according to more than 31,000 scientists, will have no effect on global climate.
Social engineers are also chomping at the bits to ratify more U.N. treaties, each with its own devastating consequences. The U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea was approved by the Foreign Relations Committee last December, but conservatives kept it away from a Senate vote. It will surely be revisited by this new crop of social engineers.
Another treaty high on the priority list is the U.N. Convention on the Rights of the Child. This treaty will effectively destroy the family, in that it gives government – not parents – the authority to dictate the way children are raised and educated.
Throughout the 20th century, social engineers steadily gained influence. The 21st century appears to be a continuation of this trend. This has been possible, not because their philosophy is valid; it clearly is not. Social engineering has expanded because the determination of their advocates has been met by apathy from their opponents.
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Americans who believe in individual freedom, free markets, and the prosperous America created by our Founders, must realize that this wonderful system of government must be defended daily from the social engineers who believe they know best how everyone else should behave.
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Excerpt from The Path to Awakening, from Chapter: Homage to the Great Compassionate One!
This is the key instruction, the essential nectar generated by Serlingpa.
Now we come to the main subject: the Seven Points of Mind Training. This is the key instruction of the Kadam school, the lineage of which comes from Atisha Dipamkara Srijnana (982-1054 C.E.). Though of course this key method comes from Buddha, for
a long time it was passed on as a secret oral tradition along a long lineage of great bodhisattvas.
It is called dütsi nyingpo, or essential nectar. The nectar is a liquid so pure that even one drop can purify a vast body of water. These instructions are like the very essence of that purifying, healing nectar.
This nectar is not only able to purify the mind, but when Atisha received these instructions he effectively purified the transmission of Buddhism as well. In the 11th century, Buddhism slowly started declining in India. This was exactly as Buddha had predicted. When he was teaching he repeatedly told his disciples that his teachings
would definitely disappear so it was critically important for them to practice diligently immediately. At every sojong (ceremony for purifying monastic precepts), he repeated this warning. So it happened that during Atisha's time there began to be indications that this disappearance of the Buddha's teachings from India was starting to happen. For example, during Atisha's life, the combined lineages of the bodhisattva vow – the Maitreya-Asanga lineage and the Nagarjuna lineage – already disappeared from India.
Everybody was practicing one or the other, but not the two together. As a great bodhisattva, Atisha saw that in the future he could benefit beings in Tibet before Buddhism declined in India. He understood that by sowing the seeds of buddhadharma there, when it declined in India it would live on in Tibet. For that reason, he went all the way to Indonesia to meet Serlingpa, the only master who still held that combined lineage of the bodhisattva vow…
Like the diamond, the sun, the medicinal tree, it (the Seven Points of Mind Training, or Lojong) is the principal, ever precious discipline.
The Buddha gave many different teachings and instructions according to the abilities and propensities of his students. The methods vary in levels of difficulty and of accomplishment, but among the countless dharma practices, Lojong is the superlative discipline. It is as priceless as a perfect diamond. Its worth cannot be measured because it is the very key that opens the inner door to enlightenment.
Another simile distinguishes the brilliance of Lojong: these very precious teachings are said to shine as brightly as the sun itself. We have at our disposal all kinds of artificial light such as candlelight, gaslight, or electric light. But in the sun, all artificial lights are redundant. The sun completely dispels darkness and everything is shown clearly in its presence. Similarly, Lojong clears away the ignorance of our mind and reveals everything as it is.
A third simile highlights the special power of Lojong to accelerate our progress on the path: Mind Training is like the roots of a medicinal tree. The roots hold all the healing ingredients and these curative essences in turn permeate the entire tree: its trunk, branches and leaves, etc. Every single cell of the tree contains the medicines and we can harvest them through any of its parts. Similarly, Mind Training forms the best root for all dharma practice.
When Lojong has taken root in us, it imbues any practice we do with the same power to bring us swiftly to enlightenment. By these three similes, you should understand, know, and remember the superior qualities of Lojong which attest to its being the most valuable and meaningful practice in your life.
The Path to Awakening: How Buddhism's Seven Points of Mind Training Can Lead You to a Life of Enlightenment and Happiness (Delphinium Books/distributed by HarperCollins; February 11, 2014), by Shamar Rinpoche, provides a complete and simple guide to living a fulfilling life as a Buddhist, as well as a comprehensive manual of meditation techniques.


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Audi RS6 Parts
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About Audi RS6
An Audi RS6 is a mid-sized luxury sedan thats geared towards performance. The Audi RS6 is available in a sedan or wagon form which Audi calls the Avant. You probably already know that the RS6 is built on the A6 platform and has an engine that is unique to the RS6 and isn't used in any other Audi vehicles. The RS stands for RennSport in German which means racing sport. You'll find some of the latest technology incorporated into the RS6 making it an amazing technologically advanced machine. The Audi RS6 features a cool digital audio broadcasting (DAB) digital radio tuner with a sleek multimedia interface. If your looking for power the Audi RS6 delivers, a RS6 has the most powerful engine out of all the Audi models making it a truly astonishing car. There's two Audi RS6 generations so far with the C5 being produced from 2002 to 2004 and the C6 produced from 2008 to 2010. The C5 Audi RS6 has a 4.2L V8 engine producing 444 horsepower with a very wide power band that makes the car a lot of fun to drive. You'll be sure to be even more impressed by the performance of the C6 Audi RS6 with a 571 horsepower engine with 479 ft lb of torque on tap. The Audi RS6 will sling shot you from 0 to 60 in just a little over 4 seconds with a top speed of just over 170 mph with a factory option to de-restrict the speed limit. Audi enthusiasts love the RS6 because its a well-engineered German car that really does it all, breathtaking performance, great amount of luxury and refinement with undeniable stylish good looks to match.
Audi RS6 Parts from FCP Euro
FCP Euro wants to keep your beautiful high powered luxury sedan in pristine condition. The Audi RS6 parts catalog has all the parts and RS6 accessories you're looking for in one convenient to use online store. Our unbeatable selection of quality name brand parts and customer service is sure to impress you. Our FCP Euro online catalog is always expanding to provide you with the best Audi RS6 original parts available.


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Learn More
Thermo Scientific™ Wide-Mouth Tall-Profile Clear Glass Jars with Closure
Collect soil, sludge, waste and water samples for a variety of organic and inorganic target analytes with Thermo Scientific™ Wide-Mouth Tall-Profile Clear Glass Jars when light protection is not required. Jars are available Certified to meet EPA performance-based specifications for semi-volatile organics, pesticides, PCBs and metals anlyses, Processed the same way as the certified jars but without certification documentation, or Unprocessed and ready for your own cleaning procedure.
- Clear Type III soda-lime glass jar
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Capacity | 32 oz., 950 mL |
Capacity (Metric) | 950 mL |
Capacity (English) | 32 oz. |
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On this date in 1322, northern baron John de Mowbray was hanged at York as a traitor.
He numbered among the aristocratic opposition to Edward II and to Edward's favorite Hugh Despenser.
Mowbray was with said opposition's chief, Thomas, Earl of Lancaster when the latter was trapped and defeated by Andrew Harclay at the Battle of Boroughbridge.
The surrender of these rebel lords offered the king a chance to clear many of his rivals from the board, and he did not miss it: something like two dozen nobles were put to death in its aftermath, Mowbray among them.
According to The Washingtons: A Family History, Volume 3, which notes Mowbray as a paternal ancestor of the American protopresident,
His body was left to hang and rot for an extended period before the vengeful king and the Despensers finally permitted his family to take it down and bury it in the church of the Dominican friars at York. Well into the nineteenth century, a legend proclaimed that his armor had been hung on an oak tree near Thirsk, and that 'at midnight it may yet be heard creaking, when the east wind comes soughing up the road from the heights of Black Hambleton.'
Mowbray's wife and son were locked in the Tower of London and their estates redistributed to more loyal subjects. They'd be restored to both liberty and property after Queen Isabella and Roger Mortimer overthrew Edward.
On this day..
- 1985: The Dujail Massacre - 2020
- 1897: The Nineteen Martyrs of Aklan - 2019
- 1768: James Gibson and Benjamin Payne, impressing James Boswell - 2017
- 1812: John Griffiths, crummy friend - 2016
- 1761: Isaac Darkin, dying game - 2015
- 1860: Ann Bilansky - 2014
- 1860: William Fee, the only person hanged in Wayne County - 2013
- 1931: Bhagat Singh - 2012
- 1669: Anna Ebeler, lying-in maid - 2011
- 1526: Antonio Osorio de Acuña - 2010
- 1877: John D. Lee, for the Mountain Meadows Massacre - 2009
- 1998: Gerald Eugene Stano, misogynist psychopath - 2008


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We present DIC-DIC, an educational game for your children to practise writing and letter-sound matching. It is a 100% secure application, with no advertising or marketing built-in and which is easy and intuitive to use. Children can play it by themselves in complete security.
The application allows you to choose at any time the level of difficulty of play, which language to practise and whether or not to use clues. The possibility of combining these options makes DIC-DIC an attractive game for children aged 3 to 12, suitable both for practising their first language and for acquiring vocabulary and spelling knowledge in a foreign language.
To reward good players and make the game more fun, we have included an extra game in the application, which comes up when a certain number of right answers has been built up. The achievement log means you can follow the successes scored at each level in each language.
We hope you enjoy the game as much as we've enjoyed creating it.
Happy DIC-DIC!


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China: Rebalancing and long term growth
As analysts and official entities like the World Bank continue to downgrade their forecasts for medium-term growth in China, I have been asked increasingly often for the reasons I believe that 3-4% average annual growth rates is likely to be the upper limit for China during the adjustment period. In this blog entry I want to explain how I arrived at my numbers. The analysis is fairly straightforward and those looking for a very complex econometric model are likely to be disappointed, but I have always believed that, unlike physics or cooking, anything in economics that cannot be easily explained to an educated layman with 9th-grade algebra and a little bit of calculus is likely to be useless (and if he knows some probability theory, the most beautiful branch of math in my opinion, he is able to soar).
Before beginning I should make two points. First, for many years I assumed that the "adjustment" period would begin shortly after the beginning of the administration of President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang, that is, from 2013 or 2014, and would run through the presumed end of their term in 2023.
In fact I may have been overly pessimistic. It now seems to me that China actually began adjusting economically, although in a very limited way, in 2012, when we first started to see growth slow as Beijing became increasingly worried about the astonishing increase in debt. This probably occurred because the big wage increases in 2010-11, which were counterbalanced by the sharp drop in real interest rates during that period, were finally able to take effect in 2012 when real interest rates rose sharply once again. Of course whether the adjustment begins in 2012, 2013, or 2014 probably doesn't matter much to the analysis, but it is good news, I think, that it may have started earlier than I originally expected.
There is, by the way, nothing especially important about ten years except that it is a round number. If China adjusts much more aggressively than I expect, the adjustment period could easily occur within less than ten years, although this is unlikely to be the case because it will be politically difficult to pull off.
On the other hand, if the adjustment period is much longer than ten years, perhaps because the relationship between investment growth and consumption growth is highly positive, or because political opposition is fiercer than expected, growth rates might be a little higher on average in the first few years but the period of stagnant growth would last longer than ten years and there would be a much higher risk of an economic collapse.
As for the second point, I don't really think of my numbers as being growth predictions. In fact more generally I do not like to make predictions and frankly have no idea of how to go about doing so, especially if it is likely to involve the complex econometric models.
What I prefer to do, and find more useful at least for my way of thinking, is to try develop an understanding of the overall system under clearly specified (I hope) assumptions, and then work through the logic of the system to see what the various outcomes can be. In other words I am not trying to predict what will happen but simply to list the various scenarios that are consistent with the model and to state explicitly what are the assumptions needed for those scenarios to occur. If the assumptions are plausible, then so is the scenario. If not, then they are not.
As I see it, 3-4% is what it takes for my arithmetic to work within plausible scenarios. It is, in other words, the upper limit of the average growth rate that allows me to work out arithmetically the growth in debt, consumption, investment and GDP needed for the amount of economic adjustment that will rebalance the economy by the minimal acceptable amount, without making some fairly implausible assumptions.
This means that depending on how aggressive Beijing is during the reform process, China's actual growth might be higher if Beijing engineers a much more aggressive program than I think plausible of transferring resources from the state sector to the household sector, thereby forcing up the household income and household consumption shares of GDP. It will be lower if there are more adverse shocks to trade or the financial sector, or if political opposition to the reforms is fiercer than expected. In other words I really think of 3-4% average annual growth as the plausible upper limit of GDP growth, assuming no massive privatization program.
Let me state my assumptions. As everyone now recognizes, rebalancing in China requires that consumption grow significantly as a share of GDP over the next decade or more. China currently reports household consumption as representing about 35% of GDP, which is an almost surreally low number. By how much would consumption have to rise for meaningful rebalancing to have occurred?
Before answering, how meaningful is this 35% number? A number of analysts have regularly argued that the official data seriously understates both income and consumption in China, and so China's real household consumption is much higher. This may well be true, but I think there are at least three counterarguments. First, while it is true that some consumption is not included in the official data, at the same time there is quite a lot in there that should not count as consumption, or at least not for the purposes of understanding the rebalancing process.
For example three of the fastest growing consumption categories year after year are gold and jewelry, household furnishings, and household appliances. I would argue that all of these should really count as investment, and certainly the latter two will drop dramatically as investment, especially in real estate, drops (and the former will probably drop as the financial repression tax is eliminated). As a rule any item of consumption the demand for which is highly correlated to investment should be treated as investment for our purposes, not consumption. So when analysts point out that a lot of consumption is paid for by businesses on behalf of employees, and so does not show up as consumption in the data, they are right. But they are also largely irrelevant. The consumption that we care about is consumption unrelated to investment, because it is this consumption that must rise as investment drops.
Second, if both consumption and income are understated, as they may well be, this does not necessarily mean that the consumption share of GDP is more than 35%. This would only be the case if the ratio of hidden consumption to hidden income is greater than 35%.
If most of the hidden consumption and income belong to the rich or very rich, as is commonly assumed, it may well be that the true ratio is lower, not higher, than 35%. Many analysts are muddled about the differences between absolute consumption levels and the consumption ratio, and so they believe that if they can show that consumption is higher than claimed by the National Bureau of Statistics, the imbalance is less of a problem. It isn't. What matters is the consumption share of all that is produced, and if both GDP and total consumption are higher than the official numbers, China's imbalance is not necessarily better. It may even be worse, and it is the imbalance that matters to China's growth prospects.
Finally we are not talking about small imbalances here. The reported consumption share of GDP is astonishingly low, perhaps the lowest ever recorded, and so the error in the data would have to be enormous for it to matter to the rebalancing debate. Even if it turns out that 20% of Chinese consumption, and none of its income, were hidden and unrecorded in the NBS data, China would still easily have the lowest consumption rate of any major economy in the world.
What is the right level of consumption and investment?
Globally, consumption represents a fairly stable 65% of GDP. Over the past decade this average has encompassed a group of high-consuming countries, such as the United States and peripheral Europe, whose average consumption exceeded 70% of GDP, as well as a group of low-consuming countries, mainly in Asia, whose average consumption, excluding China, ranged from 50% to 58% of GDP.
This distribution of over- and under-consumption should change in the next few years. It is unlikely that the high-consuming countries will be able to maintain their excess levels of consumption for the rest of this decade, and indeed their consumption rates have already come down substantially, with more probably to come. Peripheral Europe is in crisis, and the United States is taking steps to raise its savings rate so as to reduce its current account deficit. Japan, although already a relatively low-consuming country, is also likely to try to increase its savings rate so that its massive debt can be funded by patient domestic savers, rather than by impatient foreigners.
This means that the rest of the low-consuming countries are also unlikely to be able to keep their consumption levels as low as they have in the past. A world with low-consuming countries requires high-consuming countries in order to balance.
If global consumption drops in the high consuming countries, with no corresponding rise in the low-consuming countries, it is unlikely that investment will rise quickly enough to replace it (why invest if no one is going to buy the output?), and so the global economy must respond with enough of a contraction in GDP to maintain consumption at roughly 65%. The great consumption and savings imbalances of the past that led to the current crisis, in other words, have to adjust. This means that if there are no longer large economies consuming 70% of more of their national income, the world is unlikely to be able easily to accommodate large economies consuming just 50–58% of their national incomes.
Let us assume, nonetheless, that the world can accommodate a minimal amount of Chinese rebalancing. Within a decade Chinese household consumption, according to this assumption, will rise to no more than 50% of GDP, as difficult as it will be for the world to accept such low consumption from its second-largest economy. This will mean that China still produces far more than it absorbs – especially if investment growth were to come down sharply, and it would mean that the rest of the world would be forced to absorb excess Chinese production without resorting to trade intervention.
For the sake of completion let us make a second assumption that, because the world is unable to accommodate such a low consumption level for the world's second largest economy, global pressure forces an even more dramatic change in Chinese household consumption so that it rises to 55% of GDP, instead of 50% as in our first assumption, in ten years. Both of these assumptions can be modeled in a way that combines consumption and GDP growth to arrive at the desired outcomes, and I will ignore the possibility that if the world forces China to raise its consumption rate to 55% in ten years, this will probably happen through negative growth and trade disputes, thus making all my numbers overly optimistic.
So much for our assumptions about the consumption rate – the second set of assumptions involves investment. Currently China has the highest investment share of GDP in the world, with investment comprising 46% of GDP or more, depending on how it is calculated. A 2012 IMF paper that I have cited in earlier issues of this newsletter shows investment as high as 49% of GDP, and it calculates excess investment, i.e. the spread between actual investment levels and the level predicted by an historical model, which began growing around the year 2000, as being 5-10 percentage points.
What is the appropriate level for a country like China? A number of studies have examined other high-investment developing countries during their growth miracle stages, and for most of these countries investment peaked out briefly at 35-40% of GDP (in Malaysia, Thailand and Singapore investment did at one point exceed 40%, but in each case only for a very brief period). In emerging markets investment is typically around 30% of GDP.
How should China compare to these countries? Some analysts argue that China, a very poor country, suffers from a capital stock that is too low, and so the optimal investment level should be much higher. This reasoning, I hope I was able to show in my June blog entry, is based on a fallacy. The optimal amount of investment for any country depends not on how far it is from the capital frontier but rather on its level of social capital, and this implies that very poor countries should optimally have lower levels of capital stock per capita than richer countries.
China's capital stock per capita, for example, is higher than that of Mexico, and much higher than that of Russia and Brazil, three other large developing countries that are substantially richer than China and whose workers are more productive. When analysts say that China's capital stock is relatively low, they are completely befuddled. It is low compared to the richest and most productive countries in the world, as it should be, but it is high compared to other developing countries, and even compared to developing countries with much higher levels of productivity
Because investment shares in other developing countries peaked out at 35-40%, some analysts argue that this is the appropriate level of investment for China. There are of course a number of problems with this argument but two stand out especially. First, the countries for which investment peaked out at 35-40% of GDP nearly all had subsequent periods of very difficult adjustment, with burgeoning growth in debt and either sharp economic contraction or many years of very slow growth, during which periods the investment share of GDP dropped substantially.
It is not at all clear, in other words, that for these countries 35-40% was the optimal investment share of GDP. This was probably already too much investment because in many if not most cases it was subsequently followed by many years of low or even negative growth, probably as the economy was forced to grind its way through the debt associated with the excess investment. The optimal level, in other words, was probably much closer to 30%.
Second, even if 35-40% was somehow the optimal level for China all along, investment in China has substantially exceeded this level for many years, so it seems obvious that an appropriate adjustment should mean not that investment drops from 46% of GDP to 35-40%, but rather that is drops to something well below 35% for many years before returning to the "optimal" level. This, I think, is just common sense.
Making the implicit explicit
So I assume that investment must drop as a share of GDP. One way or another, either because Beijing forces changes in the growth model, or because Beijing does nothing and allows debt to build to the point where debt capacity constraints are breached, after which investment collapses automatically and the investment share of GDP will drop substantially.
How long will it take? I am going to assume Beijing has ten years to bring investment levels down to the new "optimal" level just to make my calculations easier, but as in the case of taking ten years for consumption to adjust, I think this is an heroic and frankly implausible assumption. Debt levels are simply too high in China for it to continue this level of investment growth for so many more years.
To repeat the exercise, then, let me make two separate assumptions – that investment will drop to 40% of GDP in ten years and that investment will drop to 35% of GDP in ten years. In either case I will assume that investment is currently 46% of GDP, although it is probably closer to 49%.
It turns out that it is fairly simple arithmetic to work out the implications of each of these assumptions relative to GDP growth. Rather than start with growth assumptions in consumption and investment and use these to determine what the corresponding GDP growth rate is likely to be, I thought it would be more useful if I reverse the process and simply assume a bunch of GDP growth rates ranging from -2% to +10%. These are the different average GDP growth rates possible under different scenarios for the next ten years.
We will assume two sets of adjustments for investment and consumption. The "easier" adjustment scenarios have household consumption growing from 35% of GDP to 50% of GDP, while investment declines from 46% of GDP to 40% of GDP. The "tougher" adjustment scenarios have household consumption growing from 35% of GDP to 55% of GDP, while investment declines from 46% of GDP to 35% of GDP.
The table below lists the consumption and investment growth rates needed for rebalancing to take place at each of the highlighted GDP growth rates.
Table:GDP, consumption, and investment growth in a rebalancing China
Assumed GDP growth rate |
Consumption growth as the consumption share rises from 35% to 50% |
Consumption growth as the consumption share rises from 35% to 55% |
Growth in investment as the investment share drops from 46% to 40% |
Growth in investment as the investment share drops from 46% to 35% |
-2% |
1.6% |
2.5% |
-3.4% |
-4.6% |
0% |
3.6% |
4.6% |
-1.4% |
-2.7% |
2% |
5.7% |
6.7% |
0.6% |
-0.8% |
4% |
7.8% |
8.8% |
2.6% |
1.2% |
6% |
9.9% |
10.9% |
4.5% |
3.1% |
8% |
11.9% |
13.0% |
6.5% |
5.1% |
10% |
14.0% |
15.9% |
8.5% |
7.0% |
To read the table, let us start by assuming, as an example, that we believe the average GDP growth rate over the ten-year period will be 6%. For China to do a minimal amount of rebalancing that gets consumption to 50% of GDP and investment to 40% of GDP, we can quickly figure out what the corresponding growth rates of consumption and investment must be. Consumption must grow by 9.9% a year and investment must grow by 4.5% a year to get us there.
Notice the reason why I do it this way rather than the "normal" way most other economists would. Instead of estimating what I expect the growth rates in consumption and investment will be, and then calculating the implicit GDP growth rate from those numbers, I start with an assumed GDP growth rate and then calculate what the implicit growth rates in consumption and investment must be in order for rebalancing to take place. I am not making predictions, in other words. I am simply working out logically what any GDP growth rate must imply in terms of consumption and investment growth rates in order for China to rebalance.
This allows me to make statements like this: If you think that China's GDP will grow by 7% a year over the next decade, and if you expect a minimal amount of rebalancing, then you are implicitly predicting that consumption will grow by 10-11% a year for ten years and that investment will grow by 4-5.5%. If you believe these two implicit predictions are plausible, then your 7% prediction is also plausible.
Trade is a residual
Notice of course that for the changes to work we are implicitly assuming that the GDP share of the sum of other consumption (government and business) and the current account surplus changes automatically to allow the equation to work. So if consumption rises from 35% of GDP to 50% of GDP, for example, while investment falls from 46% of GDP to 40% of GDP, the other sources of demand (mainly other consumption and the current account) must have reduced their share of GDP from 19% to 10%. This probably means a sharp contraction in the country's current account surplus and perhaps even a current account deficit.
I want to state again that these numbers are not predictions. They are simply the arithmetically necessary growth rates that are consistent with our assumptions. To return to the interpretation of the table, let us assume again that China does the minimal amount of rebalancing so that in ten years household consumption is 50% of GDP and investment is 40% of GDP, what are the investment and consumption growth rates consistent with, say, 6% GDP growth, and are they plausible?
It turns out that average GDP growth rates of 6% require, as an arithmetical necessity, that household consumption grow by 9.9% a year over the next ten years and that investment grow by 4.5%, after many years of high double digit growth and more recently growth in the low double digits. Is this plausible?
I would argue that positive investment growth rates for another ten years are highly likely to result in our reaching debt capacity constraints well before the end of the decade, so I am skeptical about the investment implications of this scenario. By the way some analysts have mischievously pointed to the very poor construction quality in China to argue that investment growth rates have to stay high just in order to account for higher-than-estimated depreciation costs, and that this suggests that China can grow faster than what we might otherwise assume.
This of course is nonsense. The fact that buildings and infrastructure are poorly constructed means that China is worse off, not better off, and the investment projects will ultimately be required to generate sufficient returns to pay off even more debt than originally estimated. Because it is debt capacity constraints that constrain investment, anything that creates debt without creating additional productivity to service the debt cannot possibly be a solution. Higher-than-expected depreciation increases debt relative to debt-servicing capacity.
I would also argue, more importantly, that if annual investment growth drops to 4.5%, and GDP growth to 6%, it will be very difficult, without significant and politically painful transfers from the state sector to the household sector, for consumption to grow at anywhere close to 9.9% a year for ten years. Consumption growth is, after all, positively correlated with investment growth, especially in the internal provinces upon which a lot of useless investment has been lavished.
In order to get Chinese households to increase their consumption by nearly 10% every year, I would argue that household income would have to grow at that rate, which means that wages, interest rates, and the value of the renminbi should in the aggregate increase rapidly to get consumption to rise fast enough, and of course since it is precisely low wage growth, low interest rates, and an undervalued currency that goose GDP growth, reversing them is not consistent with high GDP growth.
Can consumption grow at close to 10% for ten years while household income grows much more slowly? Yes, of course it can, if the household savings rate declines, but as China's economy slows and as concerns about debt rise, it seems to me a tad optimistic to assume that the household savings rate will decline sharply. Rising income and rising uncertainty both suggest that we should expect higher, not lower, household savings rates, which in turn imply that household income must grow faster, not slower, than household consumption.
All of this suggest to me that while 6% GDP growth for the next ten years might not be impossible, it is extremely unlikely because it requires what are to me implausible assumptions about the ability to maintain and increase already-high levels of investment without increasing the debt burden unsustainably and about the rise in the growth rate of household income as both GDP and investment growth drop sharply. This is why even 6% annual GDP growth rates, which are still lower than most current growth projections for China, are implausibly high, in my opinion.
What about if you believe that reducing investment is a much more urgent priority than raising consumption? In that case you might argue that China can grow at 6% while the household consumption share of GDP rises to 50% and the investment share of GDP declines to 35%.
In that case you are implicitly assuming that household consumption will grow on average by 9.9% a year for ten years while investment grows by 3.1% a year. Is this possible? Of course it is. Is it plausible? Again, only if you believe that investment growth can drop sharply while the growth in household consumption rises to nearly 10% a year for ten years.
So what is plausible? My working assumption, which I acknowledge is probably still optimistic, is that somehow or the other Beijing can keep household consumption growing at around 7-8% a year, even with a sharp decline in the investment growth rate and with the pressing need to clean up the banking system (and remember that traditionally, in China and elsewhere, cleaning up the banking system always means finding ways of getting the household sector to pay for the losses).
I know many consider assumption this to be a little optimistic, but if Beijing is worried about the social implications of adjustment, this is probably the target it will need to meet, and Beijing can do so even with much slower GDP growth if the leadership implements mechanisms that transfer wealth from the state sector to the household sector. I discuss why this is the right growth rate for to target in more detail in a recent piece published on the Carnegie Endowment website and in an OpEd piece in the Financial Times.
The table above shows that if China is to do the minimal amount of rebalancing, which requires that the world accommodate for another ten years large Chinese trade surpluses, and that debt can continue to grow – quickly but at a lower rate than in the past – for another ten years without pushing China up against its debt capacity constraints, 7-8% growth in household consumption is consistent with roughly 3-4% growth in GDP. It is also consistent with more or less no growth in investment, which would after ten years bring the investment level down to 35% of GDP.
These numbers are, I think, plausible if still a little optimistic. This is something, in other words, that I think Beijing can reasonably pull off – if it is able to manage political opposition from the domestic elite – because they can transfer resources from the state sector to the household sector at a pace necessary to keep the growth rate of household income and household consumption fairly high. However GDP growth rates significantly above 3-4%, I would argue, require assumptions that are unlikely to be met unless Beijing is able radically to transform its attitude to state ownership and the power of the elite, and so embark on a major transfer of assets from the state to the household sector.
This is why I have argued since 2009 that that 3-4% average GDP growth for a decade is likely to be the upper limit once Beijing seriously begins to rebalance the Chinese economy, and if the administration of President Xi and Premier Li is able to pull this off, it would be a huge accomplishment. China would rebalance substantially, the problem of debt would have been managed relatively well, and the income of average Chinese households will have nearly doubled over the decade. The key assumption, of course, is that in the face of a sharp drop in investment, Beijing is nonetheless able to maintain current high levels of consumption growth.
Before closing it is worth pointing out that many analysts have told me that they do not think it is possible for household income growth to exceed GDP growth for many years. But why not? After all state income growth exceeded household income growth for many years, and if Beijing reverses the mechanism that accomplished this – albeit with political difficulty – it can reverse the relative growth rates. More importantly, Japan did just this after 1990, when GDP grew by around 0.5% annually but household income and household consumption grew by between 1% and 2%. The US did this too in the early 1930s when, if I remember correctly, household income and household consumption dropped by a lot less than GDP (around 35%) and investment (around 90%).
But notice these two examples. One occurred under conditions of no growth and the other under conditions of negative growth. Severely unbalanced systems always rebalance in the end, but the process of rebalancing is rarely easy.
This is an abbreviated version of the newsletter that went out four weeks ago. Academics, journalists, and government and NGO officials who want to subscribe to the newsletter should write to me at [email protected], stating your affiliation, please. Investors who want to buy a subscription should write to me, also at that address.


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It's finally here: Google's long anticipated, full-throated fair use defense for its library scanning program. In its motion for Summary Judgment in the Authors Guild vs. Google, filed on July 27, Google attorneys argue that its keyword searchable index of books scanned from library shelves "passes with ease" the ultimate test of fair use, because it provides "enormous transformative benefit" to the public, without "reducing the value" of any authors' work. According to media reports, meanwhile, the Authors Guild filed "a sealed motion" for Summary Judgment by hand, with a redacted version reportedly to be filed later.
"Google Books is an important advance on the card-catalog method of finding books," the Google brief states. "Readers benefit by being able to find relevant books. Authors benefit because their books can be more readily found, purchased, and read. The public benefits from the increase of knowledge that results." The heart of the Authors Guild case, on the other hand, Google attorneys note, is that Google "could not create those benefits without first obtaining permission from the authors of the books that were copied in the process of making the index," an argument that fundamentally misunderstands copyright, the brief states, as copyright is not a "right inherent in authorship," but a "utilitarian concept," created entirely by law.
"The guiding principle in this case is not a natural right of authors to control their works: no such right exists under United States law," Google argues. "What matters instead is whether Google Books furthers the objectives of copyright laws because of the public benefits (including benefits to authors), flowing from Google Books."
The brief comes after nearly seven years of legal wrangling, including three years the parties spent stumping together for an ill-fated settlement with authors and publishers. The settlement was rejected by Judge Denny Chin in March of 2011. Chin, however, based his rejection on the deal's controversial, forward-looking business component, without reaching the copyright claims at the heart of the case. Now, barring an unexpected development, the case is on track to deliver a precedent-setting fair use verdict.
Next up, responses to the motions for Summary Judgment are due August 24, with replies to the responses due September 17, and oral arguments set to begin October 9.
Four factors
Google's concise, 46-page brief sticks to two major arguments: supporting its fair use defense, and attacking the Authors Guild claim that Google, legally speaking, illegally "distributed" copies back to participating libraries. And, on both counts, Google attorneys suggest, the case isn't even close.
"Analyzing the four fair use factors together with the public benefits created by Google Books compels the conclusion that Google Books is a fair use," the brief states. "Google Books makes use of works for the purpose of allowing readers to find them, not to read them directly. It does not preempt the publication of those works, it reproduces no more of the work than is necessary, and it does not displace any extant market for those works. It provides enormous public benefits. None of these facts is in dispute, and no court has rejected a finding of fair use on facts akin to these."
Specifically, on the first factor, the purpose and character of the use, Google argues that the scan plan is highly transformative. "Google made digital copies of books in order to create a searchable index linking each word found in any book to all books in which that word appears," the brief states. "Google Books does not in any way supersede the objects of the original. Books exist to be read. Google Books exists to help readers find those books. Like a paper index or a card catalog, it does not substitute for reading the books themselves, and Plaintiffs do not contend that it does."
On the second factor, the nature of the work, there is relatively little to consider. While research cited in the brief shows that as much as 93% of the Google Books corpus is nonfiction, most of which are scholarly works, the database contains "works of every type," thus "the nature of the works does not weigh one way or the other on a class-wide basis." The only "relevant common consideration," Google notes, is that all the books were published, which, they argue, weighs in favor of fair use, as unpublished works are afforded more protection under the law.
On the third factor, which considers the amount of the work used, Google, despite admitting to copying entire works, argues that it meets the standard of using no more of the work than necessary. "The Supreme Court and the Second Circuit have both held that copying the entirety of a work may be fair use where that copying is necessary to the purpose of the fair use," the brief states. In this case, "Google scans the full text of works because full-text scanning is necessary for full-text search." As for the snippet display, Google argues that it displays only a small percentage of the overall of the work, and no more of the work than necessary to allow users to evaluate the relevance of the search result.
As to the fourth factor, the effect on the market, Google argues there is "no reasonable dispute" that Google Books in fact benefits authors, and no evidence of any harm "flowing directly" from the scanning of books, the creation of the index, or the display of snippets. Rather, the crux of the AG's case, the brief states, is the belief that "if Google had not used their works without payment, they might have been able to charge for those uses."
No such licensing market exists, however, "in which authors are paid for the inclusion of books in indices or search results," the brief states. Google points to three pieces of evidence that "place this point beyond reasonable dispute."" First, more than 45,000 publishers make their books available for browsing in the Google partner program without payment. Second, Amazon's "Search Inside the Book" program also does not compensate for browsing. And, last, the Authors Guild itself has recommended that its members make entire chapters of their books available for free.
"With no evidence to support their claims, [The AG] resort to speculation that, absent Google's copying, a licensing market for the scanning and display of works in search engines might develop," the brief states. But harms that are "theoretical and speculative" are not considered in the fourth factor analysis, Google argues, and the courts have specifically rejected such "circular arguments" because all fair uses of a copyrighted work, in theory, could be said to preempt the development of a licensing market.
As to whether Google committed an "unauthorized distribution" of copies to libraries, the argument is more technical. Although Google claims the library copies are fair use (and offers a neat defense for the libraries being sued by the Authors Guild), Google argues its role "does not involve any volitional conduct" that could amount to "distribution." Rather, it is the libraries that make the library copies, and only of books the libraries own—Google merely provides the technology. At best, the brief states, that might create a question of secondary liability, which is not alleged here.
Are You Better Off?
The relative merits of its legal arguments aside, the Google brief is a fairly elegant defense of its scanning program, a document that stands in stark contrast to the complex muddle that was the settlement agreement of 2008. Without question, copyright is complex and fraught with technicalities—the Google brief, however, is not. Rather, it presents an effective argument not only for the district court that will decide the motion, but also for the court of public opinion, pulling the case's ultimate, key question into sharp focus: are we better off in a world with Google Book Search, or without it?
To that end, the Google brief devotes significant space to detailing the benefits of the program. "Google Books was born of the realization that much of the store of human knowledge lies in books on library shelves where it is very difficult to find," the brief states. "Google Books aimed to solve that problem by giving everyone access to a full-text searchable index of these books."
The brief goes on to contrast the research methods for much of the 19th century, with those now enabled by the program—from a world of index cards and very limited bibliographic information, to a world where the text of books can be keyword searched, and then located in a library or a bookstore, within seconds.
"A search for 'Archimedes' using Google Books, for example, locates many thousands of books in less than one second, and returns the most relevant books that contain any reference to Archimedes," the brief explains. "This result can be achieved only by digitizing the full texts of the books contained in the index. Without digitizing the whole book, there is no way to know whether a particular book mentions Archimedes, unless Archimedes happens to be one of the subject headings assigned to the book by the librarian who cataloged it."
The brief also details Google's security safeguards, and its sensitivity to the concerns of rightsholders. Regarding its display, for example, Google Books does not allow copying; At least one out of ten entire pages in each book is blacked out; And additional protections prevent automated downloading of snippets. Works that are designed to be consumed in "short chunks," meanwhile, are excluded from snippet view entirely—no dictionaries, cookbooks, no haiku. Google also excludes works from display if a rightsholder asks, for any reason.
In addition to offering better research methods, the corpus has also enabled new types of research, the brief adds. "Text from the books was used as an input to the n-grams research project," the brief notes, "a tool for users to determine how frequently different terms or phrases appear in books published at different times," which "can provide insights about fields as diverse as lexicography, the evolution of grammar, collective memory, the adoption of technology, the pursuit of fame, censorship, and historical epidemiology."
For its part, the AG has never contested the public benefit of the program; Rather it has long contended that, public benefit notwithstanding, the issue boils down to this: Google, a multi-billion dollar commercial entity simply appropriated millions of copyrighted works under the banner of fair use to create an asset of great value.
Google's commercial nature, however, does not matter, the brief argues. What matters is whether the program meets the objectives of copyright law: to promote the progress of science and useful arts—objectives the Authors Guild would replace "with a regime of complete control by the author over all uses of his works without regard to the use's transformative and beneficial public purpose, and even without regard to the undisputed benefits derived by the author himself," the brief concludes. "That is not the law."


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This was published 9 years ago
Doctor Zhivago: How the CIA turned the novel into a Cold War weapon
By Peter Finn and Petra Couvee
Washington: A secret package arrived at CIA headquarters in January 1958. Inside were two rolls of film from British intelligence – pictures of the pages of a Russian-language novel titled Doctor Zhivago.
The book, by poet Boris Pasternak, had been banned from publication in the Soviet Union. The British were suggesting that the CIA get copies of the novel behind the Iron Curtain. The idea immediately gained traction in Washington.
"This book has great propaganda value," a CIA memo to all branch chiefs of the agency's Soviet Russia Division stated, "not only for its intrinsic message and thought-provoking nature, but also for the circumstances of its publication: we have the opportunity to make Soviet citizens wonder what is wrong with their government, when a fine literary work by the man acknowledged to be the greatest living Russian writer is not even available in his own country in his own language for his own people to read."
The memo is one of more than 130 newly declassified CIA documents that detail the agency's secret involvement in the printing of Doctor Zhivago – an audacious plan that helped deliver the book into the hands of Soviet citizens who later passed it friend to friend, allowing it to circulate in Moscow and other cities in the Eastern Bloc. The book's publication and, later, the awarding of the Nobel prize in literature to Pasternak triggered one of the great cultural storms of the Cold War.
The CIA's role – with its publication of a hardcover Russian-language edition printed in the Netherlands and a miniature, paperback edition printed at CIA headquarters – has long been hidden.
The newly disclosed documents indicate that the operation to publish the book was run by the CIA's Soviet Russia Division, monitored by CIA director Allen Dulles and sanctioned by President Dwight Eisenhower's Operations Coordinating Board, which reported to the National Security Council at the White House. The board, which oversaw covert activities, gave the CIA exclusive control over the novel's "exploitation".
The "hand of the United States government" was "not to be shown in any manner", according to the records.
The documents were provided at the request of the authors for a book, The Zhivago Affair, due to be published in the US on June 17.
During the Cold War, the CIA loved literature – novels, short stories, poems. Joyce, Hemingway, Eliot. Dostoevsky, Tolstoy, Nabokov. Books were weapons, and if a work of literature was unavailable or banned in the Soviet Union or Eastern Europe, it could be used as propaganda to challenge the Soviet version of reality. Over the course of the Cold War, as many as 10 million copies of books and magazines were secretly distributed by the agency behind the Iron Curtain as part of a political warfare campaign.
In this light, Doctor Zhivago was a golden opportunity for the CIA. Both epic and autobiographical, Pasternak's novel revolves around the doctor-poet Yuri Zhivago: his art, loves and losses in the decades surrounding the 1917 Russian Revolution.
The Soviet literary establishment refused to touch Doctor Zhivago but a Milan publisher had received a copy of the manuscript from an Italian literary scout working in Moscow. In June 1956, Pasternak signed a contract with the publisher, Giangiacomo Feltrinelli, who would resist all efforts by the Kremlin and the Italian Communist Party to suppress the book.
In November 1957, an Italian-language edition of Doctor Zhivago was released. In Washington, Soviet experts quickly saw why Moscow loathed Doctor Zhivago. In a memo in July 1958, John Maury, the Soviet Russia Division chief, wrote that the book was a clear threat to the world view the Kremlin was determined to present: "Pasternak's humanistic message – that every person is entitled to a private life and deserves respect as a human being, irrespective of the extent of his political loyalty or contribution to the state – poses a fundamental challenge to the Soviet ethic of sacrifice of the individual to the Communist system," he wrote.
In an internal memo shortly after the appearance of the novel in Italy, CIA staff members recommended that Doctor Zhivago "be published in a maximum number of foreign editions, for maximum free world distribution and acclaim and consideration for such honour as the Nobel prize".
As its main target for distribution, the agency selected the first postwar world's fair, the 1958 Brussels Universal and International Exposition, at which 43 nations were participating.
What was especially interesting to the CIA: the fair offered one of those rare occasions when large numbers of Soviet citizens travelled to an event in the West. Belgium had issued 16,000 visas to Soviet visitors.
After first attempting to arrange a secret printing of the novel through a small New York publisher, the CIA contacted the Dutch intelligence service, the BVD. Agency officials had been following reports of the possible publication of Doctor Zhivago in Russian by an academic publishing house in The Hague and asked whether it would be possible to obtain an early run of copies.
In early September 1958, the first Russian-language edition of Doctor Zhivago rolled off the printing press. The books were wrapped in brown paper and dated September 6. Two hundred copies were sent to headquarters in Washington. Most of the remaining books were sent to CIA stations or assets in western Europe. The largest package, 365 books, was sent to Brussels.
Doctor Zhivago could not be handed out at the US pavilion at the world's fair, but the CIA had an ally nearby: the Vatican. Russian emigre Catholics had set up a small library just off the pavilion's Chapel of Silence, a place to reflect on the suppression of Christian communities around the world. There, the CIA-sponsored edition of Doctor Zhivago was pressed into the hands of Soviet citizens. Soon the book's blue linen covers were littering the fairgrounds.
The CIA was quite pleased with itself. "This phase can be considered completed successfully," read a September 10, 1958, memo.
There was only one problem: The CIA had anticipated that the Dutch publisher would sign a contract with Feltrinelli, Pasternak's Milan publisher, and that the books handed out in Brussels would be seen as part of that print run. The contract was never signed, and the Russian-language edition printed in The Hague was illegal. The Italian publisher, who held the rights to Doctor Zhivago, was furious when he learnt about the distribution of the novel in Brussels. The furor sparked press interest and rumours, never confirmed, of involvement by the CIA.
The CIA concluded that the printing was, in the end, "fully worth trouble in view obvious effect on Soviets", according to a November 5, 1958, cable sent by Mr Dulles, the director. The agency's efforts, after all, had been re-energised by the awarding of the Nobel prize in literature to Pasternak the previous month. The Kremlin treated the award as an anti-Soviet provocation, vilified the author, and forced Pasternak to turn it down.
Prompted by the attacks on Pasternak in Moscow and the international publicity surrounding the campaign to demonise him, the CIA's Soviet Russia Division began to firm up plans for a miniature paperback edition.
Officials at the agency reviewed all the difficulties with the Mouton edition and argued against any outside involvement in a new printing. The agency already had its own press in Washington to print miniature books, and over the course of the Cold War it had printed a small library of literature – each book designed to fit "inside a man's suit or trouser pocket".
By July 1959, at least 9000 copies of a miniature edition of Doctor Zhivago had been printed
CIA records state that the miniature books were passed out by "agents who [had] contact with Soviet tourists and officials in the West". Two thousand copies of this edition were also set aside for dissemination to Soviet and Eastern European students at the 1959 World Festival of Youth and Students for Peace and Friendship, which was to be held in Vienna.
Occasionally it was not only available, but unavoidable at the festival. When a Soviet convoy of buses arrived in Vienna, crowds of Russian emigres swarmed them and tossed copies of the CIA's miniature edition through the open windows. On another occasion, a Soviet visitor to the youth festival recalled returning to his bus and finding the cabin covered with pocket editions of Doctor Zhivago.
Soviet students were watched by the KGB, who fooled no one when they described themselves as "researchers" at the festival. The Soviet "researchers" proved more tolerant than might have been expected.
"Take it, read it," they said, "but by no means bring it home."
Adapted from The Zhivago Affair: The Kremlin, the CIA and the Battle Over a Forbidden Book, by Peter Finn and Petra Couvee.
Washington Post


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May, 2, 2012
Marty Elcan is a Hollywood-based Director with over 25 years of production experience, who has worked on numerous movies and television shows. She's always been fascinated by American Sign Language, which led her to her latest project "Shut Up and Sign." We caught up with Marty recently and asked her about this new venture.
Hollywood Revealed: Tell us how you got involved in Sign Language?
Marty Elcan: I was in the International singing group "Up With People" right after high school and a small group of us went to a deaf school to entertain the kids. I'm not quite sure about the logic of a singing group going to a deaf school, but the kids were so radiant and enthusiastic about us being there, and they taught us some of their songs in Sign Language. I was hooked. I studied it for a brief time many, many years ago, and then got too busy to continue it when I started working in the film industry.
HR: So what got you interested again?
Marty Elcan: I had the opportunity to work with actress Marlee Matlin on two different projects and though she was so appreciative of my efforts to communicate with her directly instead of an interpreter, I realized how rusty I was. A couple of years ago, I was "between assignments" as we say, and I decided to take a brush up class. That turned out to be a career-expanding decision!
HR: How so?
Marty Elcan:When I first entered Bob Hiltermann's ASL (American Sign Language) class, I wondered if I had walked into an improv performance. The students were laughing out loud at the teacher's antics, and were so fascinated by this crazy animated teacher that they all enthusiastically echoed
the signs he was teaching. A natural comedian, he made learning fun.At the beginning of some of the classes, Bob occasionally played 30-minute clips of several different Sign Language series currently on the market. Compared to Bob's teaching style, these were deadly stodgy and boring, and almost unwatchable, so a light bulb went off. I talked to Bob about collaborating on a new Sign Language series that could incorporate his entertaining style, and he was immediately on board.
HR: Had Bob ever done anything like this before?
Marty Elcan: Well, as it turned out, besides being a teacher, Bob's also an actor. I guess I shouldn't have been surprised. He played Orin in the movie "Children of a Lesser God," then he did another project with Marlee Matlin — the Hallmark movie "Bridge to Silence." From there, he had a recurring role for a year on "All My Children," a guest-starring stint on "Cold Cases," a role in "The Hammer," and he is one of four stars in the much acclaimed documentary "See What I'm Saying." He's also the drummer for the world's only all-deaf band "Beethoven's Nightmare" which is now well-known around the world, and he's currently performing in the Deaf West Theater production of "Cyrano."
HR: So how did this acting background help with Sign Language?
Marty Elcan: We set out to make learning Sign Language FUN, and with Bob, no idea was too zany to explore. We wanted a series that would teach with humor. He teaches the signs in a clear way, but we also developed a wide array of characters doing skits to reinforce the lessons, and all of those characters are played by Bob. Somewhere along the way, we decided to do a song in Sign Language for each of the dvd "episodes" and those have turned into full music video productions. In one of them, Bob plays nine characters, all floating on clouds.
HR: It's one thing to get the idea for something like this, but another to get it made. How did you know how to do that?
Marty Elcan: I've worked in the Film and Television production for over 25 years. As an Assistant Director, I worked with Elizabeth Taylor, Sid Caesar, Milton Berle, Shirley MacLaine, Julia Roberts, Kevin Costner, Brad Pitt, Walter Matthau, Carol Burnett… on shows such as "Steel Magnolias," "Driving Miss Daisy," "Mystic Pizza," "Amazing Stories," "Six Feet Under, "Inherit the Wind" (with George C. Scott and Jack Lemmon). I've had the good fortune to work with and learn from such directors as Steven Spielberg, Martin Scorsese, Bruce Beresford, Dan Petrie and Clint Eastwood. Several years ago, I started directing, and with 4 award-winning shorts and a mixture of other projects under my belt, I got to direct my first feature film "Next of Kin."
HR: And Bob? What's his background?
Marty Elcan: Wow. Interesting story! He grew up in Germany. He was the tenth child of eleven. Bob was born hearing, but he had only recently discovered that he became deaf at the age of four when he had spinal meningitis. Shortly thereafter, when he was six, his family moved to Canada. Between moving to a new country and adjusting to a different life, and eleven children to care for, Bob's parents didn't realize Bob was deaf!!! They just thought he was "slow." Keep in mind that not only couldn't he hear, but everyone was now talking in a new language he didn't know. His family just assumed he had learning disabilities. Bob wondered so himself, because he could see others communicate so easily, and it was so hard for him. It wasn't until he was ten years old that a hearing test showed he was deaf. But by now, his family had grown accustomed to treating him as if he were mentally challenged. Knowing how smart he is, I can only imagine how frustrating this time was for him. He says his memories from the ages of ten to seventeen are far from happy. When he was 17, a counselor suggested he go to Gallaudet University in Washington D.C. There, he was first introduced to Sign Language and it changed his life. I think that's why it's so important to him now to share the joy of Sign Language with others.
HR: Is this series for children only?
Marty Elcan: No, not at all. The series is for anyone "from age 8 to 108." We heard about a nine-year old addicted to video-games who watched the series and now he goes for days without talking – only signing. He's trying to get Sign Language taught at his school! Then another customer in his sixties told us he owns every Sign Language series out there and this is the only one that clicked – he says it's the best and most entertaining series on the market. By the way, for anyone who already knows basic Signs, we also have three "Reading Fingerspelling" practice DVDs (Beginning, Intermediate and Advanced) that are each about an hour of finger-spelled words and great reading practice.
HR: So how can someone get the DVDs?
Marty Elcan: Thanks for asking!!! Click HERE There's a big sale going on right now!
You can also email Marty c/o firstname.lastname@example.com


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Dow plummets 100 points in stock sell-off
| New York
A quiet day on Wall Street turned into the worst sell-off in three months after a Federal Reserve official said he doubted the bank's effort to boost economic growth would work.
Charles Plosser, president of the Fed's Philadelphia branch, told an audience Tuesday that the Fed's effort to support the economy would likely fall short of its goals. And if the Fed looks ineffective, it could undermine future Fed action.
The speech probably startled some investors who had faith in the Fed's latest plan, said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer Harris Private Bank. The plan includes buying $40 billion in mortgage bonds each month until the economy improves.
"So many investors have bought into the illusion," he said. "And it was like Plosser pulled up the curtain on the Wizard of Oz."
The Standard & Poor's 500 index lost 15.30 points, its fourth straight decline, to close at 1,441.59. The 1.05 percent drop was the worst for the S&P since June 25.
The Dow Jones industrial average lost 101.37 points to close at 13,457.55. Caterpillar tugged the Dow down, losing 4 percent. The world's largest maker of bulldozers and other heavy equipment said late Monday that slower economic growth around the world dampened its earnings forecast. Its stock sank $3.86 to $87.01.
A batch of encouraging economic reports gave the stock market a nudge in morning trading. House prices rose in major cities for a third straight month, and a gauge of consumer confidence came in surprisingly high.
More surprising than those two economic reports was the Richmond Federal Reserve's strong reading on regional manufacturing, a recent trouble spot, said Phil Orlando, chief equity strategist at Federated Investors.
"Look at that. There were three data points on the economy and we crushed them," said Phil Orlando, chief equity strategist at Federated Investors.
But sagging profits could drag on the stock market in the coming weeks, Orlando said. Caterpillar joined a growing collection of companies have lowered their earnings forecasts. FedEx, a bellwether of world trade, said that shipping has sunk to recession-like levels. Railroad giant Norfolk Southern has also warned that falling shipments and sinking coal prices will likely drag down its earnings.
Wall Street analysts now estimate that corporate profits will sink this quarter from a year earlier. That would be the first such drop in three years.
The Nasdaq composite index dropped 43.05 points to 3,117.73. Google's stock touched an all-time high in early trading, clearing $764, but closed the trading day at $749.16.
Apple, the largest public company in the world, lost $17.25, or 2.5 percent, to close at $673.54. It has lost more than $26 in two days. Apple is the biggest component in the S&P but is not included in the Dow, helping explain why the S&P suffered a greater percentage decline than the Dow's 0.8 percent.
The closely watched Standard & Poor's/Case Shiller index of national house prices increased 1.2 percent in July compared with the same month in 2011. Prices rose from the previous month in all 20 major cities tracked by the report for the third month in a row.
The Conference Board said its gauge of consumer confidence shot to a seven-month high in September, trumping forecasts by a large margin. People surveyed said they were more optimistic about the job market.
The Federal Reserve's manufacturing index, which surveys companies in the central Atlantic region, increased after shrinking for three months as businesses turned more optimistic. Companies said they anticipate more orders and shipments even as employment dips. The index turned positive in September after a negative reading in August.
All three major stock indexes have surged or more this month, buoyed by a new plan from the Federal Reserve to support the U.S. economy. Both the Dow and the S&P 500, the benchmark for most stock funds, have gained more than 3 percent.
Treasury prices rose as traders shifted money into safe assets. The 10-year Treasury yield, the benchmark for mortgages and other loans, dipped to 1.67 percent, down from 1.71 percent late Monday.


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Oscillicious has just launched a new product called SodaSynth, and to the best of our knowledge, this is a first in the sense that it's being released across three platforms. There's a VST plug-in version, another for the HP Touchpad, and - perhaps most interestingly - a free iteration that's available from the Chrome Web Store.
As its name suggests, SodaSynth is a virtual synthesizer, and the Chrome version is one of the first applications to use Google's emerging Native Client technology.
Oscillicious tells us: "It's native compiled C++ code running our synthesizer in a browser at full speed, for the first time. While there are some other pro audio web apps like [Hobnox] AudioTool, nothing can really get the latency low and run efficiently without native code. We think this might be a peek into a future where there are real pro audio web apps."
As they say, there are plenty of ways to make music in your web browser already, but this is something slightly different. It'll be interesting to see what the uptake is like from other developers.
The Chrome version of SodaSynth also features a 4-bar live looper, so you can record as well as play with it. The VST version, meanwhile, offers five waveforms, up to 32 oscillators per note, 8-voice polyphony and 37 presets. It's available from the Oscillicious website priced at $23.
Finally, SodaSynth HD for the HP Touchpad offers a two-octave keyboard with full five-finger multitouch support. There are 21 presets and a built-in looper: this one is available for $3 via the HP App Catalog.


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Supermarket recalls steak over allergy fears
Supermarket giant Asda have issued a recall on their Butcher's selection garlic and herb thin cut beef sizzle steak.
The retailer has taken the decision after it was found the beef sirloin steak contains milk that hasn't been declared on the packaging.
If you have purchased this product with the date 5th December (product code 505407026558) then please return it to your nearest Asda store where you will be given a full refund. You do not need a receipt for proof of purchase.
Asda said that they were "deeply sorry" for any inconvenience caused and if customers would like any further information please do not hesitate to contact customer relations on 0800 952 0101.


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In the real estate world right now, it's clearly a buyer's market. Years of foreclosures and price drops have brought about a sharp rise in investment and vacation home sales, while the market also presents buyers with ample opportunities to pick among properties ranging from city homes under $10,000 to mansions owned by sports superstars, from castles to entire villages in France for under $500,000. If you're so inclined, you can even buy a small town in the U.S., starting at just $100,000—with the added perk that you get to name the streets whatever you want.
This week, the entire town of Buford, Wyoming, is being auctioned off, with bids starting at $100K. Buford is located just off of I-80, in a windy, high-altitude section (8,000 feet elevation) about halfway between Laramie and Cheyenne.
USA Today reports that interest in the curious case of Buford has been heating up, with people from more than 70 different countries clicking on the real estate listing at Auction Network. The ad promotes Buford as a 10-acre "Income-Producing Town" that includes post office boxes, a Union Wireless cellular tower with a lease, and five buildings:
The town's five buildings include the Buford Trading Post built in 2004; a 3 bedroom modular home purchased new in 1994; a school house built in 1905 which now serves as an office; a three and a half stall garage built in 1895 and a 1900s cabin which is now used as a tool shed.
(MORE: Last Remaining Resident Puts Wyoming Town Up for Auction)
A plow and three vehicles are also thrown in with the package deal, as is your own zip code: 82052. Bidders on Buford must register with a deposit of $50,000 by Wednesday at noon, Central Time. The actual auction will begin on Thursday, April 5, at noon MT.
The current owner—and sole resident—is 61-year-old Don Sammons, who has lived in Buford since 1980 and owned the entire town since 1992.
USA Today notes that it's not completely unheard of for towns to be bought and sold. Pray, Montana, a five-acre town north of Yellowstone National Park that is home to eight times as many full-time residents as Buford—Population 8 vs. Population 1—was listed last month for $1.4 million. The Daily reported that owner Barbara Walker is selling because she's tired of running Pray on her own. In addition to serving as mayor:
"I'm the sheriff and the garbage control and the animal control officer," Walker said, laughing.
(MORE: Full Real Estate Recovery Not Coming Until 2015)
What could you do with your own town? Giving her best sales pitch, Walker told USA Today the options are limitless:
"This town has no ordinances, no covenants, no restrictions," says Walker, 52, whose late husband's family bought Pray in 1953. "You could put a hog farm on it. You could put an artist colony."
Brad Tuttle is a reporter at TIME. Find him on Twitter at @bradrtuttle. You can also continue the discussion on TIME's Facebook page and on Twitter at @TIME.


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Colombo, March 30, 2012: Twenty20 tickets, The global sale of tickets for the ICC World Twenty20 2012 Sri Lanka began at 9am GMT this morning with demand expected to be high for the first ICC World Twenty20 to be held in Asia.
A maximum of four tickets can be purchased by each person for the super eights, semi-finals and finals, and a maximum of six tickets per person for the rest of the matches. Online booking of tickets will be available by logging onto www.icc-cricket.com, and buyers must produce a receipt confirming their purchase to redeem their match ticket at the box office. Ticket collection will take place from 1 August 2012.
Tickets represent excellent value with prices starting at as little as US $0.25 for the single group games and the final itself has tickets ranging from only US $2.50 up to just US $45.
Attendance at the ICC Women's World Twenty20 during the group stages in Galle will be free of charge. The women's semi-finals and final will be played on the same day on the same ground as the men's and will be covered by the same ticket.


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Happy Birthday, Lime!
We're 5 years old this year! We're so grateful to our riders and city partners who have made us the most ridden shared electric vehicles in the world. They are the reason we get closer each year to building a future where transportation is shared, electric, and carbon-free.
Over the last few years, we've established ourselves as the leader in shared electric vehicles. We prioritize collaborating with the communities we serve, working together to build the right shared mobility program, addressing the unique needs of each city and its riders, and improving how streets are built. It's inspiring to see people embrace car-free options like our e-bikes and e-scooters, particularly in cities whose streets prioritize people over cars. Last year, we saw double, even triple, the number of rides in cities with newly created bike lanes.
A few months ago, we closed a successful funding round where we raised $523 million, the highest ever for the micromobility industry. And while we're very proud of that, we haven't lost sight of the reason why that funding is important. We're in the best position to continue bringing our industry-leading Gen4 e-bikes and e-scooters to more cities globally, extending access to more communities in need of sustainable transportation options.
Let us brag about our community of riders for just a minute. Since 2017, together we have:
- Ridden our e-bikes and e-scooters in more than 200 cities (and counting!)
- Surpassed 250 million rides
- Replaced more than 65 million car trips
- Prevented more than 24,000 metric tons of carbon emissions
- Avoided close to 3 million gallons of gas
In the next five years, we'll continue to build vehicles of the future because we want to fundamentally revolutionize the way people move–and give them more reasons to ditch the car! We will also continue to relentlessly prioritize decarbonization of our own business to get closer to the carbon-free future we all want. Thank you to our riders and cities for helping to make us the most ridden shared electric vehicle company in the world. Ride Green!


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Paul Joseph Watson
The DHS appears to have finally found a use for all those bullets it's been buying. At a Tea Party protest outside an IRS building in St. Louis yesterday there were no regular police – only armed Homeland Security guards.
Video footage from the demonstration at which protesters, including Infowars.com readers, chanted "no more harassment," shows numerous DHS Federal Protective Service vehicles along with several armed DHS guards. There is not a regular police officer in sight.
The St. Louis demonstration was just one of numerous similar protests against the IRS's punitive targeting of conservative groups that took place across the country yesterday. Homeland Security agents also kept a watchful eye on a Tea Party rally in Florida.
The DHS was supposedly founded to protect against and respond to terrorist attacks, man-made accidents, and natural disasters. It was not created to protect the IRS from peaceful protesters, but in the decade since its inception, Big Sis has morphed into an entity that polices and monitors political free speech as one of its primary functions.
Homeland Security has routinely been caught spying on protesters from both ends of the political spectrum via its nationwide network of "threat fusion centers".
Government documents unearthed in April revealed that the DHS, "conducts daily monitoring of peaceful, lawful protests as a matter of policy" and functions as a "secret political police force against people participating in lawful, peaceful free speech activity," such as 'Occupy' demonstrations.
In 2011, the DHS asserted that it had every right to spy on peaceful protest groups and had been using Federal Protective Service (FPS) agents to do so since at least 2006.
In March, Arkansas State Fusion Center Director Richard Davis admitted that the federal agency spies on Americans deemed to be "anti-government," noting that the DHS concentrates on, "domestic terrorism and certain groups that are anti-government. We want to kind of take a look at that and receive that information," so-called threats which included people, "putting political stickers in public bathrooms or participating in movements against the death penalty."
A 2012 Senate subcommittee investigation of DHS data fusion centers found that millions of dollars had been spent not on gathering important anti-terrorism information but on collating "a bunch of crap," which was "unrelated to terrorism" and in fact targeted Americans peacefully exercising their First Amendment rights.
In its promotional material for the 'See Something, Say Something' snitch program, the DHS has routinely portrayed white, middle class Americans as the most likely terrorists. Mock news reports and security drills run by the DHS have also depicted gun owners and homeschoolers as violent terrorists.
It's no surprise that the DHS is now deploying its agents to defend the IRS against the ire of the American people given that both federal agencies have gone to extreme lengths to target law-abiding, conservative, or God forbid "anti-government" Americans as domestic extremists and even terrorists.


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'Love & Hip Hop' Kimbella -- Erica Mena's a Publicity Whore Liar ... VH1 Didn't Edit Our Fight!!!
'Love & Hip Hop' Star Erica's a Publicity Whore Liar, VH1 Didn't Edit Our Fight!!!
"Love & Hip Hop" star Kimbella Vanderhee tells TMZ, Erica Mena wasn't edited to look like the bad guy during their massive hair-pulling cat fight in this week's episode -- Erica WAS the bad guy ... and VH1 just showed her for who she truly is.
As we first reported, Erica claims VH1 editors clipped the show to make her look like the villain -- when she appeared to unleash an unprovoked verbal attack on Kimbella, accusing her of cheapening the video vixen industry by agreeing to work for pennies.
Kimbella flipped, throwing a glass at Erica ... and the fight blew up from there. You've all seen the fight footage ... it's awesome.
But now, Kimbella's coming to the defense of VH1 -- claiming producers didn't misrepresent Erica on the show ... the fight happened exactly the way everyone saw it on television.
Kimbella tells us, "VH1 didn't do editing on anything with [Erica]. That's who she is" -- insisting she's using the fight for publicity ... to boost her struggling career.
But Erica's unfazed -- telling us, "I wish her well and much success in 2012. Have a happy new year!" Still no word from VH1.


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