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NPEC's Executive Director testifies before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, "China's Nuclear Weapons and Fissile Materials Holdings: Uncertainties and Concerns"
Mr. Chairman, members of the commission, I want to thank you for allowing me to testify before you today on the question of what China's nuclear weapons materials holdings and production might be and what their security implications might be.
Some of What We Know
As is noted in the most definitive current, public assessments of Chinese fissile materials assets and production capabilities, 2010 Global Fissile Material Report, there is little official information about China's nuclear arsenal. One can speculate but, as this analysis explains,
Without knowledge of the operating history and power of China's plutonium-production
reactors and the capacities of its uranium enrichment plants, any estimates of
China's fissile material stocks will necessarily have great uncertainties.[1]
China, unfortunately, keeps nearly all information about its stocks of fissile materials and nuclear weapons secret. Unlike the other four other permanent members of the United Nations Security Council, China has made no declaration of how much fissile material it has in excess of its military requirements or announced whether or not it has ceased production of weapons plutonium or uranium.
Regarding current production of enriched uranium, China is known to operate several relatively new Russian-designed uranium centrifuge enrichment plants and an indigenous centrifuge plant that are believed together to be capable of producing roughly 2 million separate work units (SWUs) per year.[2] The International Panel on Fissile Materials offers a conservative estimate that China has 16 tons of weapons grade uranium (plus or minus 4 tons) – enough to make between roughly 1,000 (crude first-generation design) and 3,000 (advanced design) nominal 20-kiloton explosive devices.[3]
As for plutonium, it is unclear to what extent, if any, China has dismantled its existing military plutonium production plants but it is believed to have shut them down. Precisely when they were shut down and precisely how much plutonium they produced is not known. The most definitive, public estimates of how much plutonium China has produced presume that the plants in question, which have not been visited, are "like" ones that China built underground for reserve production and has recently put on public display.[4]
As a result, estimates of how much separated plutonium China has on hand are hardly hard and fast. If one assumes even the most conservative estimates made in the International Fissile Material Panel report of 2011 (i.e., 1.8 tons), though, China could build an arsenal of as many as 450 crude plutonium devices and roughly twice as many advanced designed plutonium warheads.[5]
As for electrical power plutonium activities, China currently has a pilot reprocessing plant that can separate plutonium from spent fuel and is planning on having AREVA build it a much larger plant capable of separating nearly 1,000 crude bombs' worth of plutonium annually. China wants to site this reprocessing plant adjacent to a major nuclear military production facility at Jiayuguan.
Some of What We Don't
Just from this brief discussion, it is easy to see how difficult pinpointing precisely how many nuclear warheads China has, how many it might build with the non-militarized nuclear materials it has on hand, and how many it might be able to build in the future. To cope with these difficulties, the most popular estimates, which cluster close to 200 deployed nuclear weapons, depend heavily on how many nuclear missiles China has deployed. A single, large, thermonuclear warhead is assumed for each observed long-range nuclear missile. A few gravity bombs for bomber delivery are added along with a handful of spares.
Much is presumed here. Among the assumptions are that there are no missile reloads for any of growing number of Chinese mobile missile launchers, that most of the growing number of long-range Chinese cruise missiles are solely conventional, that there are no Chinese tactical nuclear weapons, and that the Chinese have fielded mostly or entirely large, thermonuclear warheads that use large amounts of fissile material rather than smaller, less fissile consumptive designs.
All of these assumptions may or may not be warranted. At a minimum, we risk confusing ourselves by emphasizing only the most optimistic assumptions. Recently, one of the nation's leading experts on Chinese nuclear forces knocked down concerns that China might have 3,000 deployed warheads. He explained, in some detail, why theoretically the Chinese could have no more than 1,660 nuclear weapons, i.e., roughly the number of warheads the U.S. currently has deployed. His analysis, of course, was intended to reassure. Yet, it is difficult to see how such a wide range of uncertainly could do anything but rattle.[6]
What to Worry
As the U.S. and Russia try to reduce or contain their nuclear weapons deployments, most other nuclear weapons states (France, UK, Israel, Pakistan, India, North Korea) would require at least one to three decades of continuous, flat-out military nuclear production to catch up even to U.S. and Russian reduced nuclear weapons numbers. It is quite clear, moreover, that none of the listed states have yet set out to meet or exceed the U.S. or Russian nuclear weapons deployments as a national goal.
China, however, is a different matter. It clearly sees the U.S. as a key military competitor in the Western Pacific and in North East Asia. It also has had border disputes with India and historically has been at odds militarily with both it and Russia. China has actively been modernizing its nuclear-capable missiles to target key U.S. and Indian military air and sea-bases with advanced conventional munitions and is developing similar missiles to threaten U.S. carrier task forces on the open seas. In support of such operations, China is also modernizing its military space assets, which include military communications, command, surveillance, and imagery satellites and an emerging anti-satellite capability.[7]
Would China want to ramp up its nuclear weapons capabilities? We don't know.
In its official military white papers since 2006 and in other forums, Chinese officials insist that Beijing would never be the first state to use nuclear weapons and would never threaten to use them against any nonnuclear weapons state. China also supports a doctrine that calls for a nuclear retaliatory response that is no more than what is "minimally" required and to use nuclear weapons only for its defense.[8]
Most Western Chinese security experts have interpreted these statements to mean Beijing is only interested in holding a handful of opponents' cities at risk, which, in turn, has encouraged interpreting uncertainties regarding Chinese nuclear warhead deployments toward the low end.
What China's actual nuclear use policies might be, though, is open to debate. As one analyst recently quipped, with America's first use of nuclear weapons against Japan in 1945, it is literally impossible for any country other than the U.S. to be first in using these weapons. More important, Chinese officials have emphasized that Taiwan is not an independent state and that under certain circumstances it may be necessary to use nuclear weapons against this island "province." Finally, there are the not so veiled nuclear threats that senior Chinese generals have made against the United States if it should use conventional weapons against China in response to a Chinese attack against Taiwan (including the observation that the U.S. would not being willing to risk Los Angeles to save Taipei).[9]
It is fair to note that how willing China is to use its nuclear weapons is more important than how many nuclear weapons it may have. Yet, a country's willingness to risk or engage in nuclear conflict may well turn on calculations of how many targets it might be able to destroy in a nuclear first strike and how many of its nuclear systems might survive after an adversary has attempted to strike back. In these matters, quantity, to paraphrase Stalin, may have a quality all of its own.
Does China only have 200 or so nuclear weapons? Perhaps. But if nuclear-capable missile deployments is the current driver of how many nuclear weapons China has deployed, perhaps not. The Chinese, after all, claim that they have built 3,000 miles of tunnels to hide China's missile forces and related warheads and that it continues to build such tunnels.[10] If we can't see all of the nuclear-capable missiles China might have, there's a chance it may have more than we currently assume. If, in turn, the number of such missiles is a major driver of Chinese nuclear warhead deployments, the later number could be much higher than most assume.
How much larger? We don't know. It is in our interest, however, to find out.
Indeed, the first issue such uncertainty raises is how sound current U.S. and Russian nuclear modernization and missile defense plans are. It hardly would be in Washington's or Moscow's interest to let Beijing believe it could risk using Chinese conventional forces (including China's growing fleet of conventional missiles) against Taiwanese, Japanese, American, Indian, or Russian targets because China's nuclear forces could out deter Russian or American nuclear forces.
Another question a large Chinese nuclear strategic force would raise is how it might impact Washington's and Moscow's current strategic arms negotiations. How eager would the U.S. and Russia be to make much deeper nuclear weapons cuts if they thought China might, as a result, end up possessing more deployed weapons than either Washington or Moscow? Appendix I (below) suggests why this might be a worry. If so, wouldn't we have to factor China into our arms control calculations?
Finally, there is the question of how China's nuclear arsenal and potential ramp up capabilities might impact the nuclear activities of states besides the U.S. and Russia.
Interested Parties
Japan would certainly be one neighbor to watch. It already has nearly 2,500 weapons worth of separated plutonium on its soil that it was supposed to use to fuel its light water reactors and fast reactors. Now, however, Japan has decided not to build more nuclear power reactors domestically. It also is reviewing the merits of continuing its fast reactor efforts, a program that is technically premised on Japan expanding its current domestic fleet of light water reactors.
A related and immediate operational question is whether or not Japan will bring a $20 billion civilian nuclear spent fuel reprocessing plant capable of producing 1,000 bombs worth of plutonium a year at Rokkasho on-line as planned in late 2012. This plant and Japan's plutonium recycling program can be tied to internal Japanese considerations in the late 1970s and early 1980s for developing a plutonium nuclear weapons option. Although this plant is not necessary for the management of Japan's spent fuel, the forward costs of operating it could run as high as $100 billion over its lifetime.[11]
In light of the questionable technical and economic benefits of operating Rokkasho, it would be difficult for Tokyo to justify proceeding with this plant's operation unless it wanted to develop an option to build a nuclear weapons arsenal. What, then, would one have to make of a Japanese decision to open Rokkasho if this decision came on the heels of news that China actually had many more nuclear weapons than was previously believed?
South Korea, which has attempted to get its own nuclear weapons at least once, and is asking the U.S. to back Seoul's efforts to separate "peaceful" plutonium from U.S.-origin spent fuel in Korea, is sure to be watching what Japan decides. After North Korea's sinking of the Cheonan and the bombardment of Yeonpyeong Island, South Korean parliamentarians called for a possible redeployment of U.S. tactical nuclear weapons. Washington, however, rejected this request.[12] This raises the worry that Seoul might again consider developing a nuclear weapons option of its own. South Korea already has its own nuclear-capable rockets and cruise missiles. How North Korea might react to South Korea developing a nuclear weapons option is anyone's guess.
In addition to Japan and South Korea possibly reacting negatively to news of a Chinese nuclear ramp up, there is India. It already has hedged its nuclear bets with plans to build five unsafeguarded plutonium-producing breeder reactors by 2020 and by laying the foundations of an enrichment plant that may double its production of weapons-grade uranium.[13] It too has roughly 1,000 bombs worth of separated plutonium it claims it can convert into nuclear weapons. It also has pushed development of a nuclear submarine, submarine launched ballistic missiles, missile defenses, and long-range cruise missiles. Late in 2011, it announced it was working with Russia to develop a terminally guided intercontinental ballistic missile in order to off-balance Chinese medium range ballistic missile deployments near India's borders.[14] India has never tried to compete with China weapon-for-weapon but if Chinese nuclear warhead numbers were to rise substantially, India might have no other choice but to try.
Pakistan, of course, will do its best to keep up with India. Since Islamabad is already producing as much plutonium and highly enriched uranium as it can, it would likely seek further technical assistance from China and financial help from its close ally, Saudi Arabia. Islamabad may do this to hedge against India whether China or India build their nuclear arms up or not. There is also good reason to believe that Saudi Arabia might want to cooperate on nuclear weapons related activities with Pakistan to help Saudi Arabia hedge against Iran's growing nuclear weapons capabilities.
What to Do
Clarify What Offensive Strategic Military Capabilities China Has or Will Have
In the first instance, this means clarifying precisely what strategic nuclear forces China has deployed and is building. Beijing's recent revelations that it has built 3,000 miles of deep tunnels to protect and hide its dual-capable missiles and related nuclear warhead systems more than suggests the need to review our current estimates of Chinese nuclear-capable missile and nuclear weapons holdings.
It also would be useful to know what China is planning to do to expand its existing nuclear forces. How much military fissile material does China currently have on hand? How likely is it that it has or will militarize or expand these holdings? How many missile reloads does China currently have and is planning to acquire? Have or will the Chinese develop multiple warheads for its missiles? If so, for which missile types and in what numbers? How many nuclear and advanced conventional warheads is China deploying on its missiles, bombers, submarines and artillery? What are its plans for using these forces? How might these plans relate to China's emerging space, missile defense, and anti-satellite capabilities and its conventional long-range missile force? All of these questions and more deserve review unilaterally, in classified and unclassified annual assessments, with our allies and, to the extent possible, in cooperation with the Chinese.
Game the Future
In addition, it would be useful to game alternative war and military crises scenarios relating to China's possible use of these forces at senior political levels within the U.S. and allied governments. Such gaming would likely impact allied arms control and U.S. and allied military planning. With regard to the later, a key focus would have to be on how one might defend, deter, and limit the damage Chinese nuclear and nonnuclear missile systems would otherwise inflict against the U.S., its bases in the Western Pacific, America's friends and Russia. This could entail not only the further development and deployment of active missile defenses, but of better passive defenses (e.g., base hardening and improving the capacity to restore operations at bases after attacks) and possibly new offensive forces (e.g., more capable, long-range conventional strike systems) to help neutralize possible offensive Chinese operations.
Such gaming also should prompt a review of our current arms control agenda. In specific, it should encourage discussion of the merits of initiating talks with China and Russia and other states about limiting ground-based, dual-capable ballistic and cruise missiles. Unlike air and sea-based missiles, these ground-launched systems can be fired instantaneously and are easiest to command and control in protracted nuclear exchanges – ideal properties for employment in a first strike. These dual-capable missiles also can inflict strategic harm against major bases and naval operations conventionally.
Explore 'Nuclear Missile' Controls
Ronald Reagan referred to these weapons as "nuclear missiles" and looked forward to their eventual elimination. Toward this end, he concluded the Intermediate Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty agreement, which eliminated an entire class of ground-based nuclear-capable missiles, and negotiated the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR), which was designed to block the further proliferation of nuclear-capable systems (i.e., missiles capable of lifting 500 kilograms or more at least 300 kilometers). With the promotion of space-based missile defenses, he hoped to eliminate all such ground-based missiles.
What states have an incentive to eliminate these missiles? The U.S. has no intermediate ground-launched missiles. It eliminated them under the INF Treaty. Most of our shorter range missiles are either air-launched or below MTCR range-payload limits. As for our ground-based ICBMs, they are all based in fixed silos and as such are vulnerable to being knocked out in a first strike. Russia, on the other hand, has a large, road-mobile ICBM force. Yet, Moscow too is worried about growing Chinese precision missile strike capabilities that it cannot defend against.[15]
India and Pakistan have ground-launched ballistic missiles but some of their most seasoned military experts have recently called for the elimination of short-range missiles since these can only serve to escalate border disputes. As for China, it has much to gain by deploying more ground-launched missiles unless, of course, it causes India, Russia, and the U.S. to react. The U.S. has been developing hypersonic boost glide systems that could provide it with prompt global strike options. It also has hundreds of silo-based ICBMs that it could affordably convert to deliver conventional warheads precisely. None of this would be in China's interest. Talks about reducing such nuclear-capable ground launched missiles, should be explored.[16]
Encourage China and Its Neighbors to Forswear Making HEU or Plutonium
Finally, although it may not be possible to conclude a fissile material cutoff treaty, all of the other nuclear weapons state members of the United Nations Security Council should press China to follow their lead in unilaterally forswearing making fissile material usable for weapons (i.e., recycling plutonium and making highly enriched uranium or HEU). In this regard, it would be helpful to call for a limited moratorium on commercial reprocessing with China and as many other states as possible. The U.S. Blue Ribbon Panel on nuclear energy recently determined that it would not be in America's interest to pursue commercial reprocessing in the near or mid-term. Japan, meanwhile, is reviewing its own commercial reprocessing and fast reactor program given its decision to move away from nuclear power. South Korea wants to recycle plutonium but is having difficulty persuading the U.S. to grant it permission to do so with the many tons of U.S.-origin spent fuel South Korea has.[17]
China is committed to having AREVA build it a commercial reprocessing plant that is nearly identical to the one Japan is now reconsidering opening late next year at Rokkasho. As already noted, these "peaceful," commercial reprocessing plants can produce at least 1,000 bombs worth of nuclear weapons-usable plutonium annually. Still, they are not technically necessary for the operation of nuclear power and are uneconomical compared to using fresh fuel and not recycling it. Promoting a limited plutonium recycling moratorium, in short, would be useful and could garner some support for more general fissile material production restraints.
[1]. See International Panel on Fissile Materials, Global Fissile Material Report 2010: Balancing the Books, Production and Stocks, pp. 97-98., available at http://fissilematerials.org/library/gfmr10.pdf.
[2]. See International Panel on Fissile Materials, Global Fissile Material Report 2011: Nuclear Weapon and Fissile Material Stockpiles and Production, January 2012, available at http://fissilematerials.org/library/gfmr11.pdf. For reference, it takes roughly 200 separative work units (swus) to produce 1 kilogram of weapons grade highly enriched uranium (HEU) and roughly 20 kilograms of HEU to make a crude nuclear weapon. A crude nuclear weapon is defined as a first generation device like that used in the Second World War. The Hiroshima bomb used 29 kilograms of HEU and the Nagasaki bomb used 6 kilograms of plutonium. Today, a first generation bomb is assumed to require a bit less HEU (20 kilograms) and plutonium (4 kilograms). An advanced weapons design would reduce the amounts of fissile required to produce a given yield by between a factor of two and a factor of three. On these points, see Thomas B. Cochran, "The Problem of Nuclear Energy Proliferation," in Patrick L. Clawson, editor, Energy and National Security in the 21st Century, (Washington DC: National Defense University Press, 1995), pp. 96-99.
[3]. The approximate fissile material requirements for crude and advanced design highly enriched uranium nominal 20 kiloton nuclear weapons -- 16 and 5 kilograms -- is taken from Cochran, "The Problem of Nuclear Energy Proliferation," p. 98 cited above in note 2.
[4]. See Global Fissile Material Report 2010, pp. 20-21.
[5]. Global Fissile Material Report 2011, p. 18. As detailed in note 122, this estimate is for a plutonium bomb requiring between 4-5 kilograms of separated plutonium, i.e., a crude weapons worth. An advanced weapon design plutonium weapon might use half as much or less. See note 2 below.
[6]. See Hans Kristensen, "No, China Does Not Have 3,000 Nuclear Weapons," FAS Strategic Security Blog, December 3, 2011, available at http://www.fas.org/blog/ssp/2011/12/chinanukes.php.
7. See Ian Easton, "The Asia-Pacific's Emerging Missile Defense and Military Space Competition," January 3, 2001, available from www.npolicy.org/article_file/The_Asia-Pacifics_Emerging_Missile_Defense_and_Military_Space_Competition_280111_1143.pdf.
[8]. On China's no first-use policies see China's 2008 White Paper, "China's National Defense in 2008" available from www.fas.org/programs/ssp/nukes/2008DefenseWhitePaper_Jan2009.pdf; also see analysis of this paper by Hans M. Kristensen, "China Defense White Paper Describes Nuclear Escalation," FAS Strategic Security Blog, January 23, 2009, available from www.fas.org/blog/ssp/2009/01/chinapaper.php; and M. Taylor Fravel and Evan S. Medeiros, "China's Sear for Assured Retaliation: The Evolution of Chinese Nuclear Strategy and Force Structure," International Security, Fall 2010, available from www.belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/Chinas_Search_for_Assured_Retaliation.pdf.
[9]. See Jonathan Watts, "Chinese General Warns of Nuclear Risk to US," The Guardian, July 15, 2005, available from www.guardian.co.uk/world/2005/jul/16/china.jonathanwatts; and Mark Schneider, "The Nuclear Doctrine and Forces of the People's Republic of China," Comparative Strategy, Spring 2009, available from www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/01495930903025276#preview. Also see an earlier version dated 2007, available from www.nipp.org/Publication/Downloads/Publication%20Archive%20PDF/China%20nuclear%20final%20pub.pdf.
[10]. See "Yamantau," GlobalSecuirty.org, available from www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/russia/yamantau.htm; and "What's Going On in the Yamantau Mountain Complex?" Viewzone, available from www.viewzone.com/yamantau.html.
[11]. On these points, see Von Hippel, "Plutonium, Proliferation and Radioactive-Waste Politics"; Henry Sokolski, "The Post-Fukushima Arms Race?" Foreign Policy Online, July 29, 2011 available from www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/07/29/the_post_fukushima_arms_race; and Takuya Suzuki, "Nuclear Leverage: Long an Advocate of Nuclear Energy, Nakasone Now Says Japan Should Go Solar," The Asahi Shimbun, July 22, 2011, available from www.asahi.com/english/TKY201107210339.htm.
[12]. See Julian Borger, "South Korea Considers Return of US Tactical Nuclear Weapons," The Guardian, November 22, 2010 available from www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/nov/22/south-korea-us-tactical-weapons-nuclear; and David Dombey and Christian Oliver, "US Rules Out Nuclear Redeployment in South Korea, Financial Times, March 1, 2011 available from www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e8a2d456-43b0-11e0-b117-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1oCEG4jBm.
[13]. See "India to Commission Breeder Reactor in 2013," Express Buzz,
February 20, 2012,available from www.expressbuzz.com/nation/india-to-commission-breeder-reactor-in-2013/365268.html; and Paul Brannan, "Further Construction Progress of Possible New Military Uranium Enrichment Facility India," ISIS REPORTS, October 5, 2011, available from www.isis-online.org/isis-reports/detail/further-construction-progress-of-possible-new-military-uranium-enrichment-f/7.
[14]. See "Russia to Provide 'Seeker' Tech for Agni-V ICBM," Pakistan Defense, October 26, 2011, available from www.defence.pk/forums/indian-defence/136928-russia-provide-seeker-tech-agni-v-icbm.html; Air Marshal (retd) B.K. Pandey, "Agni-V to Be Launched By March End," SP's Aviation.net, available from www.spsaviation.net/story_issue.asp?Article=900; "Why Is This DRDO Official in Moscow?" TRISHUL, October 5, 2011, available from www.trishul-trident.blogspot.com/2011/10/why-is-this-drdo-official-in-moscow.html.
[15]. See Jacob Kipp, "Asian Drivers of Russian Nuclear Force Posture" in this volume; and Dr. Mark B. Schneider, "The Nuclear Forces and Doctrine of the Russian Federation and the People's Republic of China," testimony given October 12, 2011 before the House Armed Services Subcommittee on Strategic Forces, available from www.worldaffairscouncils.org/2011/images/insert/Majority%20Statement%20and%20Testimony.pdf.
[16]. For a fuller discussion, see the "Missiles for Peace" chapter by Henry Sokolski in this volume. Also listen to audio of a panel discussion "Missiles for Peace" held at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace held in Washington, DC, September 13, 2010, available from www.d2tjk9wifu2pr3.cloudfront.net/2010-09-13-Sokolski.mp3.
[17]. See "U.S Unlikely to Allow S. Korea to Reprocess Nuclear Fuel: Diplomat," Yonhap News Agency, March 3, 2012, available from www.english.yonhapnews.co.kr/northkorea/2012/03/08/23/0401000000AEN20120308007100315F.HTML; and Frank Von Hippel, "Plutonium, Proliferation and Radioactive-Waste Politics in East Asia," analysis published on The Nonproliferation Policy Education Center website January 3, 2011, available from www.npolicy.org/article.php?aid=44&rid=2; and Takuya Suzuki, "Nuclear Leverage: Long an Advocate of Nuclear Energy, Nakasone Now Says Japan Should Go Solar," Asahi.com, July 7, 2011, available from www.asahi.com/english/TKY201107210339.html.
Figure 1: The Next Decade, Nuclear Uncertainties and Competitions
The numbers used to generate this chart came from U.S. Department of State, "New START Treaty Aggregate Numbers" Fact Sheet; Robert S. Norris and Hans M. Kristensen, "US Tactical Nuclear Weapons in Europe, 2011," The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists Vol. 67, No. 1, January/February 2011, pp. 64-73, available from www.bos.sagepub.com/content/67/1/64.full; Zia Mian, A.H. Mayyar, R. Rajaraman, and M.V. Ramana, "Fissile Materials in South Asia and the Implications of the U.S.-India Nuclear Deal," in Henry Sokolski, ed., Pakistan's Nuclear Future: Worries Beyond War, Carlisle, PA: Strategic Studies Institute, 2008, pp. 167-218; Shannon N. Kile, Vitaly Fedchenko, Bharath Gopalaswamy, and Hans M. Kristensen, "World Nuclear Forces," SIPRI Yearbook 2011, available from www.sipri.org/yearbook/2011/07; "Nuclear Weapons: Who has What at a Glance," Arms Control Association, available from www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/Nuclearweaponswhohaswhat; "Status of World Nuclear Forces," Federation of American Scientists, available from www.fas.org/programs/ssp/nukes/nuclearweapons/nukestatus.html;
Alexander Glaser and Zia Mian, "Fissile Material Stockpiles and Production, 2008," Science and Global Security, Vol. 16, Issue 3, 2008, pp. 55-73, available from www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08929880802565131;
Warner D. Farr, "The Third Temple's Holy of Holies: Israel's Nuclear Weapons," USAF Counterproliferation Center, Counterproliferation Paper No. 2, September 1999, available from www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/cpc-pubs/farr.htm; and Kenneth S. Brower, "A Propensity for Conflict: Potential Scenarios and Outcomes of War in the Middle East," Jane's Intelligence Review, Special Report No. 14, February 1997, pp. 14-15;
Robert S. Norris and Hans M. Kristensen, "US Nuclear Forces, 2011," Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists Vol. 67, No. 2, March/April 2011, pp. 66-76, available from www.bos.sagepub.com/content/67/2/66.full; Robert S. Norris and Hans M. Kristensen, "Russian Nuclear Forces, 2011," Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists Vol. 67, No. 3, May/June 2011, pp. 67-74, available from www.bos.sagepub.com/content/67/2/66.full; Robert S. Norris and Hans M. Kristensen, "Global Nuclear Weapons Inventories, 1945-2010," Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Vol. 66, No. 4, July 2010, pp. 77-83; William Wan, "Georgetown Students Shed Light on China's Underground Missile System for Nuclear Weapons," The Washington Post, November 29, 2011; Hans Kristensen, "No, China Does Not Have 3,000 Nuclear Weapons"; and Robert Burns, "US Weighing Steep Nuclear Arms Cuts," Associated Press, February 14, 2012, available from www.boston.com/news/nation/washington/articles/2012/02/14/ap_newsbreak_us_weighing_steep_nuclear_arms_cuts/.


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Introduce Your Liberal Friends to an Honest Look at Islam
Below is a message we received from the author of a good book on Islam, who goes by the name Savvy Kafir (SK):
Written by a progressive, for progressives, this candid analysis of the world's fastest-metastasizing religion is "a brisk, entertaining read" that "really crackles with wit and positive energy" — a book that does its level best to promote an appreciation of Western civilization, and an understanding of the threat posed by the Demographic Jihad in Europe, the U.S., Canada & Australia.
Recently, more liberals seem ready to learn the brutal truth about the ideology that keeps forcing its way into the news, day after bloody day. More Lefties have begun reading books, watching YouTube videos, listening to podcasts, and visiting counter-jihadi websites, searching for real answers & solid information on the Religion of Peace.
My aim is to reach those liberals who visit counter-jihadi venues such as yours, so they'll share this fun, feisty, hard-hitting book with their more PC, Islam-friendly friends.
Please do what you can to raise awareness of this timely text. Your help is greatly appreciated!
And thanks again for all you do at Citizen Warrior and An Inquiry Into Islam!
https://www.amazon.com/Savvy-Kafirs-Intro-Islam-Progressives-ebook/dp/B00ZK84UEE Read more...

subset: commoncrawl


text:
The Hidden Art of Fore-Edge Book Painting
Made possible through a gift from Anne and David Bromer, On the Edge: The Hidden Art of Fore-Edge Book Painting was a website that showcased the Albert H. Wiggins Collection of fore-edge paintings in the Boston Public Library's Rare Books Department. The online exhibit contained over 200 high-resolution images of the paintings themselves, along with an introduction by Anne Bromer, videos, and interactive zoom functions to view the paintings in fine detail. The website is no longer available, but the high-resolution images can be explored on Digital Commonwealth.
Bookseller Association Memberships
Antiquarian Booksellers Association of America
Promoting ethical standards and professionalism in the American antiquarian book trade since 1949. Anne Bromer is the former President of the New England chapter.
International League of Antiquarian Booksellers
ILAB-LILA speaks for twenty nations and two thousand leading dealers. Its sign stands for the integrity and professionalism of the trade worldwide. We are proud members.
Southern New England Antiquarian Booksellers
The organization's members include bookselling firms founded as early as 1825. Anne and David Bromer are founding members.
Other Memberships
American Printing History Association
APHA which encourages the study of printing history and its related arts and skills, including calligraphy, typefounding, typography, papermaking, and bookbinding.
Bibliographical Society of America
Founded in 1904, the BSA is the oldest scholarly society in North America dedicated to the study of books and manuscripts as physical objects.
Book Club of California
Founded in 1912 and limited to 1000 members, the BCC is a non-profit organization of book lovers and collectors with a special interest in Pacific Coast history, literature, and fine printing.
St. Botolph Club
The St. Botolph Club was founded in 1880 "for the purpose of promoting social intercourse among persons connected with, or interested in, the arts, humanities, and sciences."
Designer Bookbinders
A contemporary bookbinding society based in Great Britain and one of the foremost in the world. We are members of DB, and carry a wide variety the artists' works.
Edward Gorey House
The Edward Gorey House celebrates and preserves the life and works of Edward Gorey in his own home. Bromer Booksellers shares a history with Mr. Gorey.
Fellowship of American Bibliophilic Societies
An organization with the goal of exchanging ideas and pursuing the enjoyment of bibliocentric fun.
Fine Press Book Association
The FPBA is comprised of a world-wide membership of individuals interested in 'the art of fine printing to promote printing skills and the appreciation of beautiful books'.
Guild of Bookworkers
GBW is a national organization of bookbinders, book artists, calligraphers, paper makers, printers and marblers. The Guild sponsors a yearly conference on standards of excellence in bookbinding and traveling exhibitions of member's works.
Guild of Bookworkers, New England Chapter
Follows the purpose of the Guild of Book Workers on a regional level. Bromer Booksellers hosted three exhibitions for the Guild in the 1980s.
Japanese Art Society of America, Inc.
This organization provides a dynamic forum in which members can exchange ideas and experiences, and in which experts and scholars of Japanese art share their knowledge.
Miniature Book Society
The purpose of the MBS is to sustain an interest in miniature books, which are no bigger than three inches in length, width, or thickness. We are longtime members.
Museum of Printing
Dedicated to preserving the history of the graphic arts, printing equipment and printing Craftsmanship, the museum holds many special collections and small exhibits.
Society of Printers
SP is dedicated to the study and advancement of the fine art of printing. Anne Bromer has served as Vice President, and is a former member if the Council of Society of Printers. She also served as initiator and first chairman for the "Boston Ink" exhibit, in addition to being a curator.
The Ticknor Society
An organization of book collectors, booksellers, librarians, historians, archivists, conservators, printers, and all lovers and readers of books.
Library Friends
The Boston Athenæum
One of the oldest and most distinguished independent libraries in the country. Its collections comprise over half a million volumes. The Bromers are lifetime members of the Boston Athenaeum, which presented them with the honor of becoming Proprietors of the Athenaeum in 2010.
Boston Public Library
The library boasts over 1.2 million rare books and manuscripts, and a comprehensive collection of Rockwell Kent material, acquired from Bromer Booksellers. The BPL also holds the archives for Anne Bromer's book on Dorothy Abbe entitled Strings Attached.
Boston Public Library Associates
A community-based organization dedicated to expanding the role of the Boston Public Library in the intellectual life of the City. David Bromer currently serves as Treasurer and Investment Advisor on the Board of Directors. Anne and David Bromer have recently set up the Rare Book Fund to promote greater understanding of rare books.
Dartmouth College Library
Dartmouth's Rauner Special Collections Library holds the Bromer Booksellers publishing records from 1977-1991.
Houghton Library, Harvard University
The Houghton is the primary repository for Harvard's rare books and manuscripts. Bromer Booksellers is proud to have contributed to their extensive collections in both early printing and theater.
Osbourne Collection of Early Children's Books
Located within the Toronto Public Library, The Osborne Collection encompasses the development of English Children's literature.
Washington University in St. Louis
The university acquired the "Triple Crown Collection" of Charles Gould from Bromer Booksellers. It contained the complete works of each of the presses and an astounding collection of ephemera. The university also purchased the Eric Gill Collection of Charles Gould from Bromer Booksellers.
Cary Graphic Arts Collection
The Cary Collection at the Rochester Institute of Technology is one of the country's premier libraries on graphic communication history and practices. Acting as agents for the library, Bromer Booksellers purchased the Albion handpress on which William Morris printed his Kelmscott Press masterpiece, The Works of Geoffrey Chaucer, for the Collection in 2013.
Professional Contacts
American Library Association
The oldest and largest library association in the world, with its mission to promote the highest quality library and information services and public access to information.
Antiquarian Booksellers Association
The ABA is the senior trade body for dealers in rare and fine books, manuscripts, and allied materials in the British Isles and elsewhere.
Caxton Club of Chicago
An organization of authors, binders, collectors, conservators, dealers, librarians, publishers, and scholars who share a common interest in the book arts.
Harcourt Bindery
The Boston-based bindery is the largest bindery in the United States exclusively devoted to fine bookbinding by hand, in operation since 1900.
Lilly Library Exhibition: 4,000 Years of Miniature Books
Although this exhibit from 2001 has long gone, the site remains and serves as a useful tool in learning about miniature books from all periods.
The Microbibliophile
A journal dedicated to the world of miniature books, including information on events, reviews of newly published books, and articles about all aspects of miniature books.
Rare Book School at University of Virginia
Anne and David Bromer have attended RBS's courses on topics concerning rare books, manuscripts, and special collections.
Other Institutions & Related Interest
Antique Trader
A weekly publication dedicated to the antiques marketplace, offering the latest news in the world of art and collectibles.
Iowa Center For the Book
The UICB offers classes in book-related topics, hosts lecturers, sponsors conferences, and encourages the exchange of ideas among individuals with interests in the book.
Isabella Stewart Gardner Museum
Mrs. Gardner was an avid collector of rare books and manuscripts. Her home houses one of Boston's preeminent collections of some of the most recognized artists in the world, especially the early printed works of Dante.
Massachusetts College of Art (Mass Art)
The school offers regular tutorials, workshops, and courses on bookbinding, collage, and various printing methods. Many of the faculty have special interests in book design.
Museum of Fine Arts, Boston (MFA)
The MFA houses some of the world's greatest collections of 19th-century French paintings, American paintings, prints and drawings, Egyptian art, Asian art, and photographs. The departmental library's holdings include rare booksof the sixteenth to early twentieth centuries.
North Bennet Street School
The school's mission is to train students for careers in traditional trades that use hand skills in concert with evolving technology, to preserve and advance craft traditions, and to promote greater appreciation of craftsmanship.
Peabody Essex Museum, Rare Books & Manuscripts
PEM's Phillips Library is one of New England's most important and historic research libraries. It is a major resource for maritime history and art, New England life and culture, American decorative arts, Asian art and culture, Native American history and art, the art and culture of Oceania.
School of the Museum Fine Arts, Boston (SMFA)
The school offers courses on a regular basis covering topics of papermaking, printmaking, and traditional and modern bookbinding techniques.


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Amazing Yellowstone Road Trip
One week or two. Depending on how long you want to linger, you can travel it in a fast week or a more relaxing two. If you're driving in, start anywhere; if you're flying, nearby starting/ending points are Bozeman and West Yellowstone, Montana; and Cody, Wyoming. Other possibilities: Billings, Montana, and Jackson, Wyoming.
Day one: Guest ranches
The northern Rockies contain some of the best guest ranches in the world―resorts that range from simple and affordable to the luxurious, once-in-a-lifetime splurge. (When tallying up the costs, keep in mind that you're paying for lodging and all food, and for experiences―expert riding and fly-fishing instruction, for example―not always easy to find elsewhere.) Most ranches require a full-week stay in summer; still, it doesn't hurt to ask about last-minute vacancies for shorter amounts of time. For lower rates and more flexibility, definitely consider a late August or, if you don't have kids who need to get back to school, a September visit.
Below, we list two excellent ranches along the tour route. For more, contact the Montana Dude Ranchers' Association (888/284-4133 or montanadra.com) or the Wyoming Dude Rancher's Association (307/673-1618 or wyomingdra.com).
Mountain Sky Guest Ranch. This Paradise Valley retreat has a long pedigree. As Ox Yoke Ranch, it welcomed its first guests in 1929. Today it's one of the most luxurious guest ranches in the West, with superb food, spacious cabins, an excellent children's program, and terrific riding instruction. It's not cheap, although if you're a single person sharing a cabin with a friend, the rates get more reasonable. From August 27 to October 11 (and next year in May and early June) the weeklong minimum-stay requirement is relaxed. 30 units from $2,940 per adult per week, including meals. On Big Creek Rd. (off U.S. 89), Emigrant, MT; 800/548-3392 or mtnsky.com.
Nine Quarter Circle Ranch. Run by the Kelsey Family for decades, Nine Quarter Circle sits breathtakingly high in the Gallatin National Forest, about 40 miles north of Yellowstone's west entrance. The cabins and main lodge are rustic and informal; the riding, hiking, and fishing opportunities nearly endless. 22 cabins from $1,407 per adult per week, including meals and activities. 50 miles south of Gallatin Gateway, MT; 406/995-4276 or ninequartercircle.com.
Day two: Bozeman, Montana
What to do
Downtown Bozeman. Centered along Main Street, downtown holds a number of galleries (like Montana Trails Gallery, 406/586-2166), restaurants, coffeehouses, clothing stores, and bookstores.
The Emerson Center for the Arts & Culture. Regional arts center in a restored elementary school. 111 S. Grand Ave.; 406/587-9797 or theemerson.org.
Museum of the Rockies. It's famous for its superb displays of Montana dinosaurs ― many of them discovered by the museum's curator of paleontology, Jack Horner ― but there are fine exhibits on Montana and Plains Indian history too. $9.50, $6.50 ages 5-18, ages 4 and under free. 600 W. Kagy Blvd.; 406/994-2251 or museumoftherockies.org.
Where to eat
Community Food Co-Op. Sleek organic food store with a great upstairs coffee bar. $; breakfast, lunch, and dinner daily. 908 W. Main St.; 406/587-4039.
The Emerson Grill. In the Emerson Center for the Arts & Culture, a convivial spot with savory pasta and a decent wine list. $$; lunch and dinner Mon-Sat. 207 W. Olive St.; 406/586-5247.
John Bozeman's Bistro. Sophisticated, contemporary cuisine with a Montana twist ― for example, elk tenderloin and goat cheese on grilled focaccia. $$$$; lunch and dinner Tue-Sat. 125 W. Main St.; 406/587-4100.
Mackenzie River Pizza Co. Locally based chain, and good. $; lunch and dinner daily. 232 E. Main St.; 406/587-0055.
Moo Casa On a Montana summer afternoon, homemade ice cream is mighty welcome. $; lunch and dinner Tue-Sat, ice cream daily. 12 E. Main St.; 406/585-4565.
Where to stay
The Olive Branch Inn at the Lindley House. Near downtown, an elegant, cozy Victorian. 6 rooms from $100, including breakfast. 202 Lindley Place; 866/587-8403 or theolivebranchinn.com.
Day three: Red Lodge, Montana
What to do
Beartooth Highway. One of the must-do drives in the world, closed last year but reopened for 2006: From Red Lodge you drive 68 switchbacking, beautiful miles into the 11,000-foot-high Beartooth Range to reach Cooke City, Montana, the northeast gateway to Yellowstone. For road conditions, call the Red Lodge Area Chamber of Commerce (601 N. Broadway; 888/281-0625).
Downtown Red Lodge. The center of town is filled with historic buildings, many of them spruced up to hold outdoor and clothing stores and coffeehouses. Pick up a map at the Chamber of Commerce (601 N. Broadway; 888/281-0625).
Where to eat
The Dining Room at the Pollard. The dining room lives up to the comfortable elegance of the hotel: tasty French toast for breakfast; pistachio-crusted salmon and other entrées for dinner. $$$; breakfast, lunch, and dinner daily. 2 N. Broadway; 800/765-5273 or thepollard.net.
Red Lodge Cafe, Lounge & Casino. A neon tepee outside, a swell Rocky Mountain mural inside; buckwheat pancakes and burgers and home-baked pies. Really, what more could you want? $$; breakfast, lunch, and dinner daily. 16 and 18 S. Broadway; 406/446-1619.
Bear Creek Saloon and Steakhouse. Outside of town, big steaks and ― we're not kidding ― pig races. $$$; dinner Thu-Sun. 108 W. Main St., Bearcreek (7 miles east of Red Lodge, MT); 406/446-3481.
Where to stay
The Pollard Hotel. Built in 1893 and handsomely restored, this is one of the prettiest small hotels in the West. Comfortable (if not overlarge) rooms, plus notably good restaurant. 39 rooms from $105. 2 N. Broadway; 800/765-5273 or thepollard.net.
Day four: Cody, Wyoming
What to do
Buffalo Bill Historical Center. Five excellent museums in one: Western art, Plains Indians culture, Rocky Mountain natural history, firearms, and the life and times of showman Bill Cody himself. A must-see. $15, $10 ages 13-17, $6 ages 5-12, ages 4 and under free. 720 Sheridan Ave.; 307/587-4771 or bbhc.org.
Chief Joseph Scenic Byway. Lesser known than the Beartooth Highway, this route ― State 296 from north of Cody, joining U.S. 212 near Cooke City, Montana ― is nearly as spectacular, rising from plains to undulating hills to mountains. For road conditions, call the Cody Chamber of Commerce (307/587-2777).
Cody Nite Rodeo. Now in its 68th year, this is the longest continuously running rodeo in the United States, whooping it up from June 1 through August 31. 8 p.m.; $16, $8 ages 7-12, ages 6 and under free. Stampede Park (on U.S. 20); 307/587-5155.
Historic Trail Town and Museum of the Old West. A treasure trove of historic buildings moved intrastate; among them is a cabin supposedly used by Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid. $3. 1831 Demaris Dr.; 307/587-5302 or codystampederodeo.com.
Where to eat
Irma Hotel Grill. An evocative place for a meal or drink. $$; breakfast, lunch, and dinner daily. 1192 Sheridan; 307/587-4221.
Maxwell's. Pastas and beef in a beautifully restored home with a pleasant patio. $$; lunch and dinner daily. 937 Sheridan; 307/527-7749.
Where to stay
Irma Hotel. Built by Bill Cody, who named it for his daughter. The hotel porch offers a good perch to watch Cody's nearly nightly mock gunfights. 20 historic rooms from $115 and 20 modern rooms from $75. 1192 Sheridan; 307/587-4221 or irmahotel.com.
Best Western Sunset Motor Inn. Tidy chain motel very near the Buffalo Bill Historical Center. 120 rooms from $119. 1601 Eighth St.; , 800/624-2727, 307/587-4265 or bestwestern.com.
Mayor's Inn. Restored 1905 home was moved to a new location in 1997 and turned into an attractive four-room inn plus a cottage. 4 rooms from $115, including breakfast; cottage $105, breakfast $8. 1413 Rumsey Ave.; 307/587-0887 or mayorsinn.com.
Day five: Yellowstone National Park
Advance planning really enhances a trip to Yellowstone. To figure out which parts of the park you most want to see―and by extension, where you should stay―visit the Yellowstone National Park website. You can cruise through the park in a hurried day, but to enjoy all its highlights―Old Faithful geyser, the Grand Canyon of the Yellowstone, Mammoth Hot Springs―and take in the good ranger-led programs (check the park newspaper for these), you'll need at least two or three days.
What to do
Yellowstone Association Institute. This nonprofit runs hundreds of field seminars and other programs in the park throughout the year. The three-day Yellowstone for Families program ― based at Grant Village or Mammoth Hot Springs ― is designed for kids. From $594, $365 ages 8-12, lodging, activities, and some meals included. 307/344-5566 or yellowstoneassociation.org.
Where to stay
All in-park lodging is handled by park concessionaire Xanterra Parks & Resorts (307/344-7311 or travelyellowstone.com). The lodging options are as follows:
Canyon Lodge & Cabins. Big and busy but convenient to the heart of the park; lodge rooms have more amenities than the cabins. 83 rooms $146 and 469 cabins $61.
Grant Village. Pleasant motel units alongside Yellowstone Lake. 300 rooms from $116.
Lake Lodge Cabins. Modern "western" units and 1920s-vintage "pioneer" cabins. 100 western cabins $123 and 86 pioneer cabins $61.
Lake Yellowstone Hotel & Cabins. For sheer beauty, the classically elegant, butter yellow hotel rivals Old Faithful, and the lake views are stupendous. 194 rooms from $129 and 102 cabins from $103.
Mammoth Hot Springs Hotel & Cabins. On the northern edge of the park, small, cute cabins and a sprawling, old-fashioned hotel. 95 hotel rooms $102 with bath, $76 without, and 117 cabins from $68.
Old Faithful Inn. The brown-shingled 102-year-old hotel is a testimony to the power of architecture. And it's next to the most famous of the park geysers. Stay here if you can; if you can't, be sure to visit. 329 rooms from $109 with bath, from $85 without. Nearby are 96 Old Faithful Lodge Cabins from $62.
Old Faithful Snow Lodge & Cabins. Newest of the park's hotels, and nearly as handsome in summer as it is covered in snow. 100 lodge rooms $171 and 34 cabins $85.
Roosevelt Lodge Cabins. Wonderfully rough-hewn lodge and cabins (some with shared baths) date from 1919, and lie near great wildlife watching in Lamar Valley. Also the site of Old West cookouts and horseback and stagecoach rides. 80 cabins $96 with bath, $59 without.
Camping. Indian Creek, Lewis Lake, Mammoth, Norris, Pebble Creek, Slough Creek, and Tower Fall campgrounds ($12-$14) are operated by the National Park Service on a first-come, first-served basis. Bridge Bay, Canyon Village, Fishing Bridge RV Park, Grant Village, and Madison Junction ($17-$34) are operated by Xanterra Parks & Resorts; call 307/344-7311 for reservations.
If you can't or don't want to stay in Yellowstone proper, you can find motels near the park boundary in West Yellowstone, Gardiner, and Cooke City, Montana.


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Pick Up the Damn Phone! Personal Contact Is Still the Best Sales Tool
One of the biggest problems salespeople face with social media and technology is the lack of real, meaningful contact and communication. Sure, it's quick and easy, but when it comes to closing deals, does it really produce the results you need?
It's easy to get sucked into technology. But the personal touch is the best deal-maker there is. Relationships matter more than anything else. The digital world – as great as it is – threatens personal connections. Humans need personal contact with others. Email, texting, and social networking all certainly have a place in business today, but none of them replaces the power of a personal connection.
Based on my years of research and experience, here are my thoughts on the critical elements for business success, where creating powerful personal trust with executives and customers is necessary to produce immediate and long-term mutual economic benefit.
- Stop typing. Stop texting. Get personal right now. Pick up the phone and call. Go down the hall, take a walk, get in your car, take a train, get on a plane, hop on a bus, take the metro, and go and see the right person or people right now. Make arrangements to see the people you work with face-to face. Go and meet your prospects and clients in person. Thrash your competition. They are still tapping away on the keyboard. Even in our technology-driven world, nothing replaces a handshake and in-person interaction for both building and maintaining business relationships. Face-to-face meetings aren't luxuries.
- Our smartphones are not so smart. Everyone looks down at their phones – bumping into people on the street, at networking events, on the subway, at restaurants, in bed, at home. Our addiction to technology is bleeding into our personal lives. There's no conversation. Kids are ignored. When you used to go into a public place, you assumed everyone was in that place with you. Now everyone is somewhere else. No one is talking. No one is connecting.
- Are you spammed? Salespeople think that technology can do their job. They are under the mistaken belief that if they do some research and identify specific trigger events and mutual connections they can now spam away. It's like digital snake oil. Executives don't have "Meet with salesperson" on the top of their list; however, they will always take a meeting with a personal introduction from someone they know and trust.
- We're smarter than our buyers. The digital buyer, Buyer 2.0, learns all about us with a click of the mouse. Salespeople are armed with the same tools. Even though buyers may know a lot about you, you know just as much or more about them. Clients don't usually recognize exactly what they need. You do. Because so much information can be found online, the standard is now higher for sales to add value. Information isn't knowledge. Knowledge comes from wisdom and experience. Just being tech-savvy doesn't mean you're smarter than your buyer.
- Message to marketing: Keep your hands off my clients! It's up to salespeople to nurture their own relationships – not just with marketing automation, but with one-on-one conversations. Marketing should not be qualifying leads. That's your job. Not only is generating leads your responsibility, it's a task you don't want marketing (or anyone else) doing for you. These are your clients, and you must continue to cultivate these relationships. These are the people who can send you the best, hottest referrals. So marketing, keep your hands off my clients!
- Bring in your team. Don't be a lone ranger. If you are the manager, bring your technology experts with you. If you are the technology expert, bring your manager with you. Knock people's socks off by giving them access to the right people, those who matter to the solution of their problem. Show clients that you trust your teammates and that they can trust you. When you share data, strategies, best practices, and even people, you make the best impression and win loyalty that lasts for a long time.
- There's no such thing as a "warm" call. If you don't have a referral introduction, your lead is freezing cold – even though you mistakenly think you've been able to avoid sounding like a pesky telemarketer. A referral allows you to walk straight into meetings with your ideal prospects – without cold calling or trying to figure out how to bypass the gatekeeper. If you've been introduced by a trusted source, these gatekeepers will welcome your call. The secret isn't duping them (trust me, they're onto you). Make referral selling your primary sales driver and convert more than 50 percent of prospects to clients.
- Shine the light! Prove that live and in person is best. Social networking isn't the next big thing. You are! It's not technology, but rather the person using the technology, that sets salespeople apart. Social selling is a great way to expedite the first few important steps in prospecting: researching potential clients and identifying referral sources. Beyond that, it's not social intelligence we need, it's relationship intelligence that seals the deal.
It's people, not technology, that seal the deal. It's the real thing.
Joanne S. Black, an expert on referral selling, is the author of two books: Pick Up the Damn Phone: How People, Not Technology, Seal the Deal, and No More Cold Calling! She also is a popular speaker who teaches how to build referral networks to quickly attract more business, decrease operating costs, and ace out the competition every time. Contact her at firstname.lastname@example.com or by picking up the damn phone at 415-461-8763.
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Application Process
Application Submission
The City of Citrus Heights only accepts applications for open positions. You must submit a new application for each job you apply for.
Complete and submit an official city application, which can be found on the current openings resource. Fill out the application completely, and submit it by the final filing date and time, along with any supplemental materials required. Alternatively, you may apply online via CalOpps.org.
It is very important to include all requested information. Please list all paid work experience, licenses, professional affiliations, classes you have taken, training you have received, and any other special qualifications you possess that relate to the position for which you are applying. Failure to include requested information or an incomplete application may result in the rejection of your application.
Resumes are helpful, though not always required. Resumes are only accepted when attached to a thoroughly completed city application.
Supplemental Questionnaires
Some recruitments may also require a supplemental questionnaire. The questionnaires are evaluated as part of your application. It is important that your responses be thorough, professional, and well written.
Typing Certificate
Some recruitments require the submission of an official typing certificate. To obtain one, you can contact a local temporary agency. They will give you a typing test and issue a certificate with the words per minute you typed and the number of errors.
Criteria for Application Review
Human Resources will review your application using the criteria set forth on the job announcement.
The city reserves the right to select applicants for further consideration who demonstrate the best qualifications match for the job. Meeting the minimum qualifications does not guarantee an invitation to testing or interviews. Only the most qualified applicants may be invited to the next step of the selection process.
City Hall
Physical Address
6360 Fountain Square Drive
Citrus Heights, CA 95621
Phone: 916-725-2448Fax: 916-725-5799
Monday - Friday 8:00 a.m. - 4:00 p.m.
Lobby closes at 4:00 p.m.


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If waiting to interview musician Kermit Ruffins means that I had to spend time inhaling the aroma of food wafting from the kitchen of his latest venture, Kermit's Treme Speakeasy, so be it. On the menu this night is everything from fried catfish to stewed rabbit and a quail dish … so, I may just have to stay for dinner and see Ruffins perform. He soon arrives from a photo shoot – for this magazine, as it turns out – dressed in his signature hat with bandana underneath and bespoke suit. As he enters, I think: When hasn't Kermit performed? Who in New Orleans hasn't seen him perform? With a schedule that has him working almost seven nights a week throughout New Orleans, one would be hard-pressed on where and when not to see him – or have seen him.
As one of the city's most noted musical ambassadors, Ruffins shows New Orleanians and visitors how to have a good time – on stage and off. With a professional musical career spanning from high school to present day, and a well-known side-gig as chef – his barbecue has now taken a mythic status – Ruffins embodies the laissez les bon temps rouler attitude that many try to copy, but don't quite succeed.
So how does one describe Ruffins to a person who hasn't heard him? I turned to the CD, Live at Vaughan's (Basin Street Records), recorded with his band, the Barbecue Swingers: "Kermit Ruffins is the closest the 21st century is likely to get to a personification of the spirit of traditional New Orleans jazz. Possessed of a bright, shining trumpet tone and warm, relaxed vocal style, Ruffins recalls Louis Armstrong in personality and presentation, but moreover he represents the friendly good-times vibe of the Big Easy."
Who did you pick the trumpet up from? My uncle Percy. When you saw him, you knew you were in for a big treat. He used to come by our house on Saturday, and he would let my brother and me play on his horn. When he opened up that horn case, the smell of that brass, it was so exciting! He gave me a mouthpiece and I would march around the Lower Nine with it.
At about 14 years old, I got home [and] there was a trumpet from my uncle. So (my brother and I) joined the band at Lawless – where I learned how to play by Herman Jones, who also taught my kids.
Tell me about forming Rebirth Brass Band and why you then went out on your own and formed the Barbecue Swingers. I started playing in the marching band at Lawless (school) then when I went to Clark I met Philip Frazier. We were in the marching band together – I was first chair. Phil asked me at the end of the summer, "Let's start a second-line band." I said, "Sure give me the address and I'll be there the next day." I was with them from about 1983 to '92.
After my two daughters were born, I was like, I can't be going to Europe like this – I won't see them. Rebirth was big! I already had a solo career on the side, and I was so excited about the instrumentation of swing music, traditional music. Wearing the suit and tie. I also liked being out there and singing, and I had more control.
One of your most famous regular spots to perform is Vaughan's in the Bywater. It was originally for a birthday party for [owner] Cindy Wood's dad. I knew Daddy-O when I played with Tuba Fats and a few other people in Jackson Square. (I was playing with them for tips when not playing with Rebirth.) We would take breaks at the Alpine restaurant where Daddy-O was the bartender. He would let us smoke reefer in the coatroom.
Years later, my first solo album had come out, World on a String, and Cindy goes, "Who is this guy? I need to get him to play for my father's birthday." I played, then asked if I could do it every Thursday.
I don't know when I started the barbecue at Vaughan's – I like to tailgate, and we wanted something to munch out on. Now, it's spontaneous [if I cook].
Now Chris, Cindy's husband, does a huge pot of beans.
So I hear you do the cooking for Kermit's Treme Speakeasy. I get up at about 5:30 a.m. I watch news on Channel 6. I get to the restaurant about 7-7:30 a.m. to start cooking.
You started making your shows earlier about a year ago and in nonsmoking venues. To party early. And, you can get the same crowd early.
You have the lease to Ernie K-Doe's Mother-In-Law Lounge. What are planning to do with it? I want to do the same thing they were doing before … to do it how Antoinette [K-Doe] did it. I want to follow up on that. Hopefully it will be open by January.
I read that you try to keep a lot of your shows local. Yet, are you still traveling out-of-town for shows? I've been doing a lot in Brooklyn; recently played in Philadelphia. Israel is coming up – I just have to make myself say yes.
What is your favorite song to perform? "On the Sunny Side of the Street." I love that tune. It's a happy song.
What is your favorite Christmas song? (He sings …): "Christmas time is here …" Charlie Brown Christmas song.
True Confession: I have a big bush! When I go to church, I can't wear a hat. So I comb my hair out with a big pick; there's a lot of it!
Ruffins and the Barbecue Swingers performs regularly in New Orleans: Sundays and Mondays, Kermit's Treme Speakeasy (6 p.m./nonsmoking); Tuesdays, Bullet's Sports Bar (6 p.m./nonsmoking for Ruffins); Wednesdays, Irving Mayfield I Club (in the JW Marriott. 6 p.m./nonsmoking/DJ set), Thursdays, Vaughan's (8 p.m./nonsmoking for Ruffins); Fridays, Blue Nile (7 p.m./nonsmoking for Ruffins)
Ruffins CDs are available on the Basin Street Record label (which just celebrated its 15th anniversary.)
At a Glance
Name: Kermit Ruffins (Kermit was his grandfather's name.) (Age: 47 (Turns 48 this month) Profession: Musician Born/Raised: Lower 9th Ward Resides: Gentilly (on Music Street) Family: Fiancé, Lexine May (we got engaged on Election Day); father, Lloyd Ruffins, deceased (he worked at the Louisiana Superdome); mother, Esther Ruffins (retired; worked at WYES-TV); brother, Lloyd Ruffins (pharmaceutical/medical sales rep); sister, Imani (police officer). Five children: Tawana Ruffins (who helps run his restaurant, Kermit's Treme Speakeasy); Kermit Ruffins (a chef in San Antonio); Christina (attending Spelman College; she wants to be a dancer on Broadway); Neshia (attending Southern University in Baton Rouge; she plays classical piano and performs with Ruffins when in town) and Kaylin Orleans (attending Ursuline Academy). Education: Thomas Alva Edison Elementary School; Alfred Lawless Junior High School; Joseph S. Clark High School. Favorite book: Pops: A Life of Louis Armstrong by Terry Teachout (I've gotten about half-way through it.) Favorite movie: Star Trek. Every time I get on an airplane, I get a bloody Mary and put the film on. It kills the hour and a half. I like science fiction … Planet of the Apes. All the most recent versions. And, I also like Titanic. Favorite TV show: The "Today" Show Favorite food: Salmon, broccoli and white rice (my favorite thing to cook). Favorite restaurant (other than your own!): Maximo's Favorite music: In my car, usually two things: Pandora: Godfather Waltz; or Isley Brothers. Hobby: Cooking Favorite vacation spot: I don't do vacations. I can't remember when I did anything like that. But I do like Amsterdam and Nice (France).


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Monogram Mirror Finish 8oz Personalized Flask
Monogram Mirror Finish Personalized Flask - Stainless Steel 8 ounce
This is the original and most popular flask size and comes with a high polish mirror finish. The shine on our mirror finish flasks are so smooth you can see your reflection. Makes a great unique gift with personalized monogram initials. The mirror finish 8oz monogram flask measures 5-3/4" tall x 3-5/8" wide. Each personalized monogram flask is individually boxed. (Funnel Not Included)


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Well, the New York Times certainly can't be accused of excessive free market idolization. Peter Goodman breaks off from his gloomy economic assessments to cheer for regulation in Sunday's Week in Review story "The Free Market: A False Idol After All?"
In Goodman's telling, there is no question mark, stating the argument against the free market in simplistic liberal terms, right down to echoing the Reagan-era pejorative of "trickle down economics."
"For more than a quarter-century, the dominant idea guiding economic policy in the United States and much of the globe has been that the market is unfailingly wise. So wise that the proper role for government is to steer clear and not mess with the gusher of wealth that will flow, trickling down to the every level of society, if only the market is left to do its magic.
"That notion has carried the day as industries have been unshackled from regulation, and as taxes have been rolled back, along with the oversight powers of government. Faith in markets has held sway as insurance companies have fended off calls for more government-financed health care, and as banks have engineered webs of finance that have turned houses from mere abodes into assets traded like dot-com stocks.
"But lately, a striking unease with market forces has entered the conversation. The world confronts problems of staggering complexity and consequence, from a shortage of credit following the mortgage meltdown, to the threat of global warming. Regulation -- nasty talk in some quarters, synonymous with pointy-headed bureaucrats choking the market -- is suddenly being demanded from unexpected places."
Did you know the Bush administration was laissez-faire? Neither did we.
"The Bush administration and the Federal Reserve have in recent weeks put aside laissez-faire rhetoric to wade into real estate, wielding new rules and deals they say are necessary to protect Americans from predatory bankers -- the same bankers who, only a year ago, were being lauded for creativity. Were the market left to its own devices, millions could lose their homes, the administration now says.
"Central banks on both sides of the Atlantic are coordinating campaigns to flush cash through the global economy, lest frightened lenders hoard capital and suffocate growth. In Bali this month, world leaders gathered in the name of striking agreement to slow climate change.
"Adam Smith used the metaphor of the invisible hand to describe how markets should function: With everyone at liberty to pursue self-interest, the market omnisciently distributes goods and capital to maximize the benefits for all. Since the Reagan administration, that idea has weighed in as a veritable holy commandment, with the economist Milton Friedman cast as Moses.
"As the cold war ended and Communism retreated, the invisible hand seemed to monopolize economic thinking. Even China, controlled by a nominally Communist party, has blessed private entrepreneurs and foreign investment. In Latin America, the International Monetary Fund financed governments that embraced market forces while shunning those that were resistant.
"But now the invisible hand is being asked to account for what it has wrought. In this country, many economic complaints -- from the widening gap between rich and poor to the expense of higher education -- are being dusted for its fingerprints.
Goodman at least balanced his story source-wise with analysts from the libertarian Cato and Hoover Institution quoted along with two left-wing economists at CEPR and the Economic Policy Institute. But a leftist got the last word.
"Liberal critics have long asserted that dogmatic devotion to market forces has skewed American society toward those of greatest means. More wealth is being concentrated in fewer hands, with rich people capturing the best housing, private education and health care services, and, as the argument goes, only crumbs left for everyone else.
"That critique informs proposals from Democrats vying for the presidency, as they debate how best to expand access to health care and ways to shift the tax burden to the rich. They are in essence calling for market intervention to redress imbalances. With the gap between the richest and poorest now greater than it has been since the 1920s, these pitches have emerged as central components of their campaigns.
"More notable, though, is how fervent proponents of unfettered market forces have lately come to embrace regulation."
"Some argue that the push back against market forces is a momentary pause in a steady march toward unfettered capitalism. The libertarian Cato Institute recently issued a report in which it found that economic freedom -- shorthand for smaller government and fewer regulations -- has never been greater.
"'Global economic growth significantly increases with the growth of the world's economic freedom,' said Ian Vásquez, director of Cato's center for global liberty and prosperity.
"Few policymakers have a beef with that characterization as a generality. But when things go wrong, demands grow for the government to step in and make them right.
"'Untethered market forces lead to bad things,' said Mr. Bernstein of the Economic Policy Institute. 'You simply can't run an economy as complicated as ours on ideology alone.'"
Wednesday's lead Business story, "In the Land of Many Ifs," was written by Goodman and fellow gloomster Vikas Bajaj.
"For months, the American economy has been assailed by a wave of troubling news, from plunging housing prices to the soaring cost of oil, provoking gloomy talk of a possible recession. Yet so far the economy has found a way to shrug it all off and keep growing."
"How much longer can the expansion carry on? As a new year unfolds, analysts expect a verdict soon: Either the negatives finally metastasize and drag the economy down, or a fresh source of growth emerges, helping to sustain consumer spending despite the ongoing worries about housing and tight credit.
"'There are even odds of a recession,' said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com 'It literally could go either way.'
"The year that just ended was not for the faint of heart. As mortgage debt became synonymous with toxic waste, banks got spooked and tightfisted. Job growth slowed. Inflation fears grew. Still, consumers kept spending, and unemployment stayed flat. American companies found enough sales abroad to compensate for weakness at home.
"This is what many economists deem the most plausible of the negative situations that could unfold in 2008: Housing prices fall, consumers tighten up, and companies eliminate jobs in response to declining business, particularly in retailing, restaurants and travel.
"Companies curtail investments, cutting jobs in real estate, construction and banking. This takes more money out of the economy, generating a downward spiral of declining activity. In a word, recession.
Goodman and Bajaj concluded:
"If the Fed's lowered interest rates do the trick, making banks feel more secure, an upward spiral could commence, as fresh lending spurs business and keeps the economy growing. But if jitters persist and banks remain tight, that could snuff out business, cut jobs and send the economy into a tailspin."
Finally, a Wednesday editorial, "The Economy and the New Year," began with this cheery prediction:
"As 2008 begins, house prices are still skidding, bank losses are still mounting, oil is again flirting with $100 a barrel and consumers are buying less as prices rise. To many, the wheels appear to be coming off the economy. To others, including President Bush and his aides, the economy is fundamentally sound and resilient.
"Obviously, both camps cannot be right. Unfortunately, the preponderance of evidence is grim."
And so is the Times' economics reporting.


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VANCOUVER, British Columbia – A magnitude 7.7 earthquake struck off the west coast of Canada and a tsunami warning was issued, authorities said, but there were no immediate reports of major damage.
The U.S. Geological Survey said the quake hit the Queen Charlotte Islands just after 8 p.m. local time Saturday at a depth of about 3 miles (5 kilometers) and was centered 96 miles (155 kilometers) south of Masset, British Columbia. It was one of the biggest earthquakes around Canada in decades and was felt across a wide area around British Columbia.
The National Weather Service issued a tsunami warning for coastal areas of British Columbia, southern Alaska and Hawaii. The first wave of the small tsunami, about 4 inches (101.6 millimeters), hit the southeast Alaska coastal community of Craig.
Dennis Sinnott of the Canadian Institute of Ocean Science said a 69 centimeter (27 inch) wave was recorded off Langara Island on the northeast tip of Haida Gwaii, formerly called the Queen Charlotte Islands. Another 55 centimeter (21 inch) wave hit Winter Harbour on the northeast coast of Vancouver Island.
"It appears to be settling down," he said. "It does not mean we won't get another small wave coming through."
The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center originally said there was no threat to the islands of Hawaii, but a warning was issued later Saturday and remains in effect until 7 p.m. Sunday. A small craft advisory is in effect until Sunday morning. The center says the first tsunami wave could hit the islands by about 10:30 p.m. local time.
The USGS said the 7.7 magnitude temblor shook the waters around British Columbia and was followed by a 5.8 magnitude aftershock several minutes later. Several other aftershocks were reported.
The U.S. Coast Guard in Alaska said it was trying to warn everyone with a boat on the water to prepare for a potential tsunami.
Lt. Bernard Auth of the Juneau Command Center said the Coast Guard was working with local authorities to alert people in coastal towns to take precautions.
The quake struck 25 miles (40 kilometers) south of Sandspit, British Columbia, on the Haida Gwaii archipelago, formerly known as the Queen Charlotte Islands. People in coastal areas were advised to move to higher ground.
Urs Thomas, operator of the Golden Spruce hotel in Port Clements said there was no warning before everything began moving inside and outside the hotel. He said it lasted about three minutes.
"It was a pretty good shock," Thomas, 59, said. "I looked at my boat outside. It was rocking. Everything was moving. My truck was moving."
After the initial jolt, Thomas began to check the hotel.
"The fixtures and everything were still swinging," he said. "I had some picture frames coming down."
Natural Resources Canada said in a statement that a major earthquake was felt across much of north and central British Columbia but that there were no immediate reports of damage. PrayForCanada became a worldwide trending topic on Twitter.
"I was sitting at my desk on my computer and everything just started to move. It was maybe 20 seconds," said Joan Girbav, manager of Pacific Inn in Prince Rupert, British Columbia. "It's very scary. I've lived here all my life and I've never felt that."
The quake was felt on the mainland in Prince Rupert, British Columbia, which is across the Hecate Strait from the islands.
"Everyone felt it here," said city recreation director Rudy Kelly, who was setting up an evacuation center for people from the city's low-lying areas. He said the work was in anticipation of a tsunami wave.
Prince Rupert resident Grainne Barthe said fire trucks had blocked access to the waterfront when she came out of a restaurant.
"Everything was moving. It was crazy," she said. "I've felt earthquakes before but this was the biggest. It was nerve wracking. I thought we should be going under a table."
Residents rushed out of their homes in Tofino, British Columbia on Vancouver Island when the tsunami sirens sounded, but they were allowed to return about two hours after the quake.
Yvett Drews, a resident of Tofino, said she and dozens of others had gathered at the local elementary school where they were told by police that they could return home.
But while on the way home, Drews said she heard the tsunami sirens go off again.
"Well that just freaked me out, hearing the siren and the voice," she said.
Carsten Ginsburg, a resident on British Columbia's mainland in Bella Coola, said the quake lasted for about 40 seconds.
"It shook everything. The electricity went out, the power lines were swinging all over the place and stuff was falling off the shelves."
Ginsburg owns the Float House Inn on the public wharf in Bella Coola and had about six customers celebrating a birthday party.
Canada's largest earthquake since 1700 was an 8.1 magnitude quake on August 22, 1949 off the coast of British Columbia, according to the Canadian government's Natural Resources website. It occurred on the Queen Charlotte Fault in what the department called Canada's equivalent of the San Andreas Fault — the boundary between the Pacific and North American plates that runs underwater along the west coast of the Haida Gwaii.
Saturday's quake is the strongest in Canada since 1958 when a 7.9 magnitude quake struck along the B.C.-Alaska border about 500 kilometers (300 miles) northeast of Saturday's quake, according to the website.
Associated Press writer Mark Thiessen in Alaska contributed to this report.