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Tim Newbold; Tom Reader; Ahmed El-Gabbas; Wiebke Berg; Wael M. Shohdi; Samy Zalat; Sherif Baha El Din; Francis Gilbert (2010).
Testing the accuracy of species distribution models using species records from a new field survey.
Oikos, 119(8): 1326-1334.
Species distribution models are a very popular tool in ecology and biogeography and have great potential to help direct conservation efforts. Models are traditionally tested by using half the original species records to build the model and half to evaluate it. However, this can lead to overly optimistic estimates of model accuracy, particularly when there are systematic biases in the data. It is better to evaluate models using independent data. This study used independent species records from a new to survey to provide a more rigorous evaluation of distribution-model accuracy. Distribution models were built for reptile, amphibian, butterfly and mammal species. The accuracy of these models was evaluated using the traditional approach of partitioning the original species records into model-building and model-evaluating datasets, and using independent records collected during a new field survey of 21 previously unvisited sites in diverse habitat types. We tested whether variation in distribution-model accuracy among species could be explained by species detectability, range size, number of records used to build the models, and body size. Estimates of accuracy derived using the new species records correlated positively with estimates generated using the traditional data-partitioning approach, but were on average 22% lower. Model accuracy was negatively related to range size and number of records used to build the models, and positively related to the body size of butterflies. There was no clear relationship between species detectability and model accuracy. The field data generally validated the species distribution models. However, there was considerable variation in model accuracy among species, some of which could be explained by the characteristics of species.
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Tim Newbold, Tom Reader, Ahmed El-Gabbas, Wiebke Berg, Wael M. Shohdi, Samy Zalat, Sherif Baha El Din & Francis Gilbert 2010
Testing the accuracy of species distribution models using species records from a new field survey
Oikos, 119(8): 1326–1334
Species distribution models are a very popular tool in ecology and biogeography and have great potential to help direct conservation efforts. Models are traditionally tested by using half the original species records to build the model and half to evaluate it. However, this can lead to overly optimistic estimates of model accuracy, particularly when there are systematic biases in the data. It is better to evaluate models using independent data. This study used independent species records from a new to survey to provide a more rigorous evaluation of distribution-model accuracy. Distribution models were built for reptile, amphibian, butterfly and mammal species. The accuracy of these models was evaluated using the traditional approach of partitioning the original species records into model-building and model-evaluating datasets, and using independent records collected during a new field survey of 21 previously unvisited sites in diverse habitat types. We tested whether variation in distribution-model accuracy among species could be explained by species detectability, range size, number of records used to build the models, and body size. Estimates of accuracy derived using the new species records correlated positively with estimates generated using the traditional data-partitioning approach, but were on average 22% lower. Model accuracy was negatively related to range size and number of records used to build the models, and positively related to the body size of butterflies. There was no clear relationship between species detectability and model accuracy. The field data generally validated the species distribution models. However, there was considerable variation in model accuracy among species, some of which could be explained by the characteristics of species.
Species distribution models have great potential as tools for conservation. They relate a set of records of the occurrence of a species to a set of variables describing relevant aspects of the environment in order to predict its distribution over the whole of the study area in question (reviewed by Wintle et al. 2005).
There is a vast amount of data on the distributions of species in museums, natural history collections and the literature (Graham et al. 2004). However, there are several limitations associated with data from these sources. First, records are often accompanied by an imprecise description of the locality from which they were taken. This translates into poor locational accuracy when the record is georeferenced (i.e. when it is assigned geographical coordinates, Graham et al. 2004). The effect of locational error in the species records on the accuracy of distributional models is generally low, but varies among different types of model (Graham et al. 2008).
Second, museum data are often biased. Such bias could be: 1) spatial – towards areas to which it is easy for scientists to gain access, or towards areas that are biologically interesting; 2) temporal – towards time periods when collecting was more frequent; or 3) taxonomic – towards species that are easy to detect or that are of more interest to the collectors (Soberón 1999, Hijmans et al. 2000, Reddy and Dávalos 2003).
The third major problem with data from museums and literature sources is that there are rarely data documenting places where the species is known not to exist (absence records) (Graham et al. 2004). There are modelling techniques designed to be used with datasets that consist only of presence records, such as climate envelope approaches and techniques that model the presences with reference to the background environmental conditions (Wintle et al. 2005). However, several of the most popular modelling approaches, such as generalized linear models (GLMs) and generalized additive models (GAMs), can only be used with both presence and absence data. A commonly-used solution to this problem is to generate random 'pseudo-absence' data in grid cells without presence records (Ferrier and Watson 1997). One obvious problem with using pseudo–absence data is that some absences are likely to be found in areas that are suitable for, and even inhabited by, the species (Graham et al. 2004). Of course, recorded absence of species may also prove to be erroneous. Many species are very difficult to detect and it may take many visits to a site before species absence can be inferred with any degree of confidence (Kéry 2002, MacKenzie et al. 2002). Given accurate species records from a well-designed survey, models built with only presence records have been shown to perform as well as models built with both presences and absences (Wintle et al. 2005) and may present the safest option when there is uncertainty over the reliability of absence data.
Data from museums, collections and the literature are too valuable a source of data to ignore. However, given the potential biases and inaccuracies associated with them, it is particularly important to test the accuracy of model predictions. The simplest way to test the accuracy of a species distribution model is to test its ability to predict correctly the data used to build it in the first place (Fielding and Bell 1997). This is effectively a measure of goodness-of-fit of the model. The main drawback of this approach is that a model can fit the data used to build it very well without capturing the species' real response to the environmental variables (a phenomenon known as overfitting), and this method of model evaluation tends to lead to over-optimistic measures of model accuracy (Chatfield 1995). A better approach is to partition the data in some way, building the model with part of the dataset and evaluating it against the remainder (Fielding and Bell 1997). This is the approach taken by most studies (Hernandez et al. 2008, Franklin et al. 2009). A problem with data-partitioning approaches is that if the same bias in the species data is present in all partitions, then the model may be biased and the estimate of model accuracy inflated (Chatfield 1995). Ideally models should be evaluated using new, independent data on species occurrence (Chatfield 1995). With the wide availability of global positioning systems (GPS), records can be assigned geographical coordinates on collection, eliminating the problem of locational errors. Bias should be reduced as much as possible, particularly bias in environmental space (Wintle et al. 2005). Few studies have used independent data to validate models because collecting such data can be impractical, time-consuming and costly (Wintle et al. 2005, but see Loyn et al. 2001, Elith 2002, Ferrier et al. 2002, Elith et al. 2006, Williams et al. 2009). To the best of our knowledge only one study, on Mexican birds (Feria and Peterson 2002), has used new, independent records to test the accuracy of distribution models based on museum data. Given the potential limitations with records from museums, it is particularly important that the accuracy of models based on them are evaluated rigorously. We used independent records to test the accuracy of distribution models for a variety of species in three separate taxonomic groups.
Even if one is confident of a lack of bias in the data, different kinds of species may be more or less suited to the model-building process. There have been attempts to assess differences among species in the accuracy of their distribution models (Kadmon et al. 2003, Berg et al. 2004, Seoane et al. 2005, Hernandez et al. 2006, Newbold et al. 2009b). These studies have often found that species that are more narrowly distributed produce more accurate distribution models, possibly because small-ranged species have better-defined habitat requirements and tend to inhabit a greater proportion of the suitable environment, or because in species with larger ranges, populations show local adaptation to the environment in different areas (Stockwell and Peterson 2002, Brotons et al. 2004, Segurado and Araújo 2004, Hernandez et al. 2006, Newbold et al. 2009b). On the other hand, effects of range size could be a statistical artefact associated with the use of pseudo-absence data (Lobo et al. 2008).
Species that are easier to detect are likely to have more complete occurrence data. This may result in more accurate distribution models for these species (Seoane et al. 2005). For example, Pöyry et al. (2008) showed that the accuracy of distribution models for butterflies was positively related to wingspan, possibly owing to differences in detectability during surveys.
In this study, we modelled the distributions of Egyptian butterfly, mammal, reptile and amphibian species using records from museums, collections and the literature, presenting a rare test of their accuracy using new, independently-collected survey data as well as a test using the more traditional data-partitioning method. It was not possible to collect new species records systematically or randomly in the time available because of the remoteness and inaccessibility of many parts of Egypt, but the records were completely independent of the data used to build the models, were designed to be representative of as many habitat types as possible, given the constraints imposed by the logistics of sampling in a remote and hostile environment, and were georeferenced using a GPS and so had negligible locational error. We used the new survey data, which contain both presence and absence records, to test whether a negative effect of species range size on model accuracy persists in the absence of statistical artefacts. We also tested whether model accuracy is related to species detectability and body size (of butterflies).
Data and methods
Distribution models were compiled for Egyptian butterfly, mammal, reptile and amphibian species using Maxent ver. 3.1.0 (Phillips et al. 2006). Maxent uses a machine-learning process to produce a model where the frequency distribution of modelled probabilities is as close to uniform as possible, with the constraint that the expected value of each environmental variable (the sum, across all grid cells, of the product of the probability of occurrence and the value of the environmental variable) must equal the mean value at the presence points (the empirical average). To prevent overfitting a process called regularization is adopted, relaxing this constraint such that the expected value of each environmental variable may fall within a defined margin around the empirical average (Dudík et al. 2004). Maxent is particularly suited to use with museum data, because it designed to deal with datasets consisting only of presence records. The environmental conditions in a sample of cells from throughout the whole study area is used for comparison with the environmental conditions in cells with species presence records in.
The species data used to build the models (hereafter referred to as the original species records) were taken from the database complied as part of Egypt's BioMAP project ( www.biomapegypt.org for more details). Records were taken from museum and personal collections, and from the literature (Osborn and Helmy 1980, Larsen 1990). The identification of all extant specimens was checked by experts (Samy Zalat, Sherif Baha-El-Din, Francis Gilbert, Dr Mohammad Basuony, Al Azhar Univ., Cairo), according to the latest taxonomic opinion (Larsen 1990, Wilson and Reeder 2005, Baha El Din 2006). All records were mapped as accurately as possible using a gazetteer developed by the BioMAP project. We estimated the maximum error associated with each sampling location using the point radius method (Wieczorek et al. 2004) and removed records from highly inaccurate localities. Given positive spatial autocorrelation in the environmental variables, a moderate degree of inaccuracy in the location of species records probably does not have a large effect on model accuracy (Graham et al. 2008). The number of records available for each species ranged from 10 to 412 (median = 58); most records were made in the second half of the 20th century (Newbold et al. 2009a).
The environmental variables used in the models consisted of climate and habitat variables. The climate variables were taken from the WorldClim ver. 1.4 dataset (Hijmans et al. 2005). This dataset includes 20 variables describing altitude, temperature and precipitation (Supplementary material Appendix 1). The habitat variable used was a geological habitat classification with 11 categories (sea, littoral coastal land, cultivated land, sand dune, wadi, metamorphic rock, igneous rock, gravel, serir sand sheet, sabkha and sedimentary rock). This map was compiled using satellite imagery, and was verified by extensive ground-truthing (A. Hassan unpubl.). Using 20 environmental variables might cause the models to be overfitted (Chatfield 1995). However, the Maxent model uses a process called regularization to reduce the chance of overfitting and previous studies have shown that it can produce accurate models with small numbers of species records and similar numbers of environmental variables to our study (Wisz et al. 2008). To test whether this was the case in our study, we built a separate set of distribution models using habitat and three principal component axes based on the climatic variables. Models developed using the two sets of variables were very similar (at 5000 random points in Egypt modelled probabilities of occurrence correlated positively – Spearman's rank correlation: mean rs= 0.798 ± 0.02) and were not significantly different in accuracy (Wilcoxon's matched-pairs test: p = 0.122).
To create a second set of species data (hereafter referred to as the independent species records) with which to evaluate the distribution models, we conducted a survey of butterflies, mammals, reptiles and amphibians in Egypt in the summers (May–July) of 2007 and 2008. The reptile, amphibian and mammal species surveyed are active throughout the summer months. The flight periods of all of the butterfly species surveyed encompassed the whole period of sampling. The new records were not used to build distribution models, only to evaluate them. The new data were biased towards roads. The terrain in Egypt makes it almost impossible to sample completely randomly, with many areas situated hundreds of kilometres from the nearest road. We minimized bias in environmental space as much as possible by selecting sites that covered: (1) as large a geographical area as possible; and (2) as many different habitat types as possible, defined using a geological habitat map (A. Hassan unpubl.) and a vegetation land cover map, derived using data from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (Hansen et al. 2000). At each site we performed four 1-km walking transects at different times of day (early morning, late morning, late afternoon, evening), paced to take approximately an hour and a half each. At the same time, some members of the expedition actively searched for species in the area surrounding the start point of the transect. Transects were located such that they sampled all the major habitat types present at each site. A species was recorded as being present if it was observed at least once, and absent otherwise. Twenty-one sites were surveyed in this way (Fig. 1, Supplementary material Appendix 1). In addition to records from the fully-surveyed sites, we also included incidental observations of species from 13 other localities (Fig. 1, Supplementary material Appendix 1). Data from these sites consisted of records of species presence only, because we did not carry out replicate transects at these sites and thus could not infer species absence. Almost all new sites were situated at least 1 km from sites with records in the original dataset (Fig. 1). All fully-surveyed sites were at least three km from the nearest other site, and all but four were at least ten km from the nearest other site. Including locations with incidental records, distances among sites were sometimes much smaller; four sites were less than one km from the nearest other site and 15 sites were less than ten km from the nearest site. Butterflies were sampled by visual searching and sweep netting, reptiles and amphibians by visual scans and active searches, and mammals mainly by checking for tracks and signs, although sightings of species were also noted. Sixty species were recorded in total, 34 of which were recorded at least twice: 20 reptiles and amphibians, ten butterflies and four mammals (Supplementary material Appendix 1).
Sites with reptile, amphibian, butterfly and mammal records in the BioMAP database (grey crosses and asterisks), and sites that were sampled during the new survey (black triangles).
Imperfect detectability of species is likely to have an impact on the reliability of data describing species absence from surveys such as ours (Kéry 2002, MacKenzie et al. 2002). We modelled the detectability of species in our new survey data, following MacKenzie et al. (2002). The four transects undertaken at each site were treated as independent visits (n1, n2, n3, and n4). The likelihood (L) of obtaining a particular pattern of occurrence for a species across all four transects at all fully-surveyed sites is:
where ψ is the probability that a species occurs at a given site, p is the probability that the species is detected during one transect given that it occurs at the site, t is the transect number, n. is the number of sites where the species was recorded in at least one transect, and N is the total number of sites visited (MacKenzie et al. 2002). The parameters p and ψ were estimated using a maximum likelihood approach with the package 'mle' in R (R Development Core Team 2004). Upper and lower bounds of 0.0001 and 0.9999 respectively were set for both parameters. The model has been shown to be reasonably robust to sample sizes as small as those encountered here (Wintle et al. 2004). The model assumes that occurrence and detection probabilities are constant across sites, which is almost certainly not true. The modelled probabilities should therefore be considered rough estimates to gauge the reliability of the occurrence data and not as accurate estimates of the probabilities of detection and occurrence.
The distribution models were evaluated using three different sets of data. First, using partitioned data, whereby the original species records were divided randomly before modelling – half for model building and half for model evaluation. Models were evaluated using these reserved presence records and 2500 pseudo-absences (Ferrier and Watson 1997), drawn randomly from cells that lacked a record of the species in question. Second, using the independent species presence records and 2500 pseudo-absences, generated as before. Third, using the independent presence and absence records. Model accuracy was measured using the AUC statistic (Fielding and Bell 1997). The receiver operating characteristic curve is a plot of the proportion of presence records correctly predicted present (sensitivity) against the proportion of absence records incorrectly predicted present (commission) for a range of thresholds used to divide predicted presence from predicted absence. The area under the curve (AUC) measures the ability of the model to discriminate recorded presences from recorded absences (Fielding and Bell 1997). An AUC value of 1 indicates perfect discrimination and an AUC value of 0.5 indicates a model that is no better than random. Estimated accuracy according to AUC values was compared among the three approaches. We correlated estimates of accuracy made by partitioning the original species records with estimates made using the independent records, to test whether models were ranked similarly. To provide an alternative measure of accuracy to the AUC statistic, the models were also tested against the independent presence and absence records using the slope of the relationship between model predicted probability and species occurrence (presence or absence), fitted using a generalized linear model with binomial errors (McCullagh and Nelder 1989).
We tested a number of factors that may explain variation in model accuracy (measured using the independent presence and absence records) among species: (1) estimated species detectability (2) range size in Egypt; (3) number of presence records used to build the models; and (4) taxonomic group (mammals, butterflies, or reptiles and amphibians). The proportion of Egypt's land area predicted by the distribution models to be occupied was used as an index of range size. To calculate this, we converted the continuous prediction of probability of occurrence into a binary prediction of presence or absence, by assigning a threshold probability of occurrence to the model for each species. The threshold was set such that 95% of the presence records used to build the models were predicted correctly as being present (Pearson et al. 2004).
The effect of estimated species detectability on distribution-model accuracy was tested by a simple correlation test, because detectability could not be estimated for species that were not recorded during the walking transects. As an additional test of the effect of estimated species detectability, we also correlated butterfly wingspans (wing-tip to wing-tip; Gilbert and Zalat 2007) with model accuracy. The remaining factors were tested using generalized linear models with normal errors. AUC values were entered as the dependent variable, taxonomic group as a factor, and predicted range size and number of presence records used to build the model as covariates. We used a model selection method based on the approach recommended by Burnham and Anderson (2002). We built a global model with all terms, and candidate models with every combination of terms. AIC scores were extracted for each model and the difference between a model's AIC value and the lowest value of all models (the AIC difference, Δi) was calculated. Model weight was calculated using the following formula (Burnham and Anderson 2002):
where Δi is the AIC difference of the model in question and Δrs are the AIC differences of the other models. The relative importance of each variable was assessed by summing the AIC weights of all candidate models containing it (Burnham and Anderson 2002), hereafter referred to as 'sum of AIC weights'.
Estimates of the probability of detecting a species in a single transect (p) ranged from less than 0.001 to approximately 0.75 (Table 1). For butterflies, the migratory species Vanessa atalanta and Vanessa cardui, and the skipper Pelopidas thrax had low probabilities of detection, but most species were relatively easily detected. Mammals generally had much lower probabilities of detection than butterflies; the gazelle Gazella dorcas was an exception because its presence could be reliably ascertained by tracks and faeces. Reptiles and amphibians were highly variable in their estimated detectability. The snakes and the chamaeleon Chamaeleo africanus had very low probabilities of detection, while the lizards, skinks and amphibians generally had higher probabilities. Estimates of the probability of site occupancy (ψ), which is equivalent to the proportion of sites predicted to be occupied, were consistent with estimates of range size derived from the species distribution models (Spearman's rank correlation test: rs= 0.453, n = 23, p = 0.03).
Table 1. Estimated probabilities of occurrence (ψ) and detection, given occurrence (p) for species recorded in the walking transects at the fully-surveyed sites. Each transect was treated as an independent sampling event. ψ and p were estimated using a maximum likelihood approach (MacKenzie et al. 2002), assuming that both probabilities are constant across sites.
Acanthodactylus boskianus
Acanthodactylus scutellatus Cerastes cerastes
Chamaeleo africanus
Malpolon monspessulanus
Mesalina guttulata
Natrix tessellata
Ptychadena mascareniensis
Rana bedriagae
Sphenops sepsoides
Trapelus mutabilis
Colias croceus
Danaus chrysippus
Lampides boeticus
Leptotes pirithous
Pelopidas thrax
Pieris rapae
Pontia glauconome
Vanessa atalanta
Vanessa cardui
Zizeeria karsandra
Capra nubiana
Cazella dorcas
Lepus capensis Model accuracy estimates made by partitioning the original species records into model-building and model-evaluation datasets, were high and significantly better than random (one sample t-test: t = 22.0, DF = 33, p 0.001). AUC values ranged from 0.666 to 0.975, with an average of 0.845 ± 0.016. Accuracy estimates made using the independent presence records (i.e. records from the new survey) and pseudo-absences were also high and significantly better than random (t = 16.7, DF = 33, p 0.001). AUC values ranged from 0.485 to 1.000, with an average of 0.875 ± 0.022. Finally, accuracy estimates generated using the independent presences and absences were reasonably high and significantly better than random (t = 4.03, DF= 33, p 0.001), although lower than estimates made using pseudo-absences. AUC values ranged from 0.219 to 1.000, with an average of 0.655 ± 0.039 (for examples of the distribution models, Fig. 2). Testing the accuracy of models against the independent records, using the slope of the relationship between model predicted probability of occurrence and observed occurrence (presence or absence), also showed the predictions to be reasonably accurate. The relationships were positive for 26/34 species, although only nine were significantly positive (GLM: p 0.05). Slope coefficients ranged from –5.67 to 22.13; the average coefficient was significantly greater than zero (one sample t-test: t = 3.16, DF = 32, p = 0.003). Estimates of accuracy made using subsets of the original presence records correlated significantly and positively with estimates made using the independent records (Spearman's rank correlation: rs= 0.544, n = 34, p = 0.001; Fig. 3).
Predicted distributions and independent occurrence records for two species: (a) the Montpellier snake Malpolon monspessulanus, which had the most accurate distribution model; and (b) the cape hare Lepus capensis, which had the least accurate distribution model. Distribution models were built with Maxent ver. 3.1.0 using records from the BioMAP database and variables describing climate and habitat. Light shading indicates areas with a high probability of occurrence, while dark shading indicates a low probability of occurrence. The independent occurrence records (+= presence; O = absence) were collected during a new field survey of 21 sites in the summers (May–July) of 2007 and 2008; these records were used to evaluate the distribution models.
The relationship, for 34 species of Egyptian mammal, butterfly, reptile and amphibian species, between distribution-model accuracy estimated using independent species presence and absence records, and distribution-model accuracy estimated using partitioned data, whereby the original species presence records were randomly divided in half for model building and model evaluation respectively. Accuracy was estimated using the AUC statistic (Fielding and Bell 1997).
Model accuracy showed no clear relationship with estimated species detectability (Spearman's rank correlation: rs=–0.294, n = 25, p = 0.154). However, for butterfly species, wingspan correlated positively with model accuracy (Pearson s correlation coefficient: r = 0.652 n = 10, p = 0.041; Fig. 4). Model accuracy was negatively related to the predicted range size of species within Egypt (GLM: sum of AIC weights = 0.952; Table 2, Fig. 5a). Surprisingly, there was also a strong negative effect of the number of species presence records used to build the models on the accuracy of predictions (sum of AIC weights = 0.991; Table 2, Fig. 5b). There was little support for an effect of taxonomic group on the accuracy of distribution models (sum of AIC weights = 0.172; Table 2).
Table 2. Results from a set of generalized linear models with a normal error distribution testing factors affecting variation in the accuracy of species distribution models among species. Factors tested were predicted range size in Egypt (R), number of presence records used to build the models (S), and taxonomic group (T). Candidate models were built with every combination of terms. These models were compared using AIC and the difference between the AIC of a model and the minimum AIC of all models. Model weights were calculated following Burnham and Anderson (2002).
For 34 species of Egyptian reptiles, amphibians, butter-flies and mammals: (a) the relationship between range size, estimated as the proportion of grid cells in Egypt predicted occupied, and the accuracy of distribution models estimated using independent species records from a new field survey; (b) the relationship between the number of presence records used to build the distribution model and model accuracy, estimated using independent species records. Model accuracy was measured using the AUC statistic (Fielding and Bell 1997).
Overall, the distribution models built in this study were shown to be significantly better than random when tested against independent data collected by surveying a diverse range of habitats in Egypt. This strongly suggests that data from museums, natural history collections and literature can be used to make useful predictions about species' ranges. Several studies have reached a similar conclusion (Peterson et al. 2002, Raxworthy et al. 2003), but it is rare that models are tested against independent evaluation data (but see Loyn et al. 2001, Elith 2002, Ferrier et al. 2002, Elith et al. 2006). Uncertainties and biases will be more prevalent in models built using museum and literature records (Graham et al. 2004), making evaluation with independent data more important. Some authors have experimented with using species records from separate geographical areas (Peterson and Shaw 2003, Randin et al. 2006, Heikkinen et al. 2007) or time periods (Raxworthy et al. 2003) to evaluate models. However, predictions extrapolated outside the environmental conditions encompassed by the data that were used to build the model are likely to be inaccurate in the new areas even if they are accurate in the area for which they were built. The best approach is to collect new, independent data inside the study area for which the models were developed reducing bias as much as possible, particularly bias in environmental space (Wintle et al. 2005).
The reliability of data on species absence probably depends on the relative detectability of the taxa in question (MacKenzie et al. 2002). There was substantial variation in estimated detection probability among species in the new survey. The results of the maximum likelihood model were consistent with our expectations. First, the predicted proportion of sites occupied correlated positively with predicted range size according to the distribution models. Second, detection probabilities were very low for elusive species, such as the snakes, and for rare migrants, such as the red admiral butterfly Vanessa atalanta, and higher for conspicuous and more abundant species, including some of the lizards and most of the butterflies. The accuracy of species distribution models did not appear to be affected by detection probability suggesting that, even in small-scale surveys with relatively few visits to each site, imperfect detection of species may not be a major problem. On the other hand, the accuracy of distribution models for butterfly species was positively correlated with body size, which was used as a surrogate for detectability. It is possible that our maximum likelihood-based estimates of detection probability were inaccurate; for instance, one of the major assumptions of the maximum likelihood model that we used is that occurrence and detection probabilities are constant across sites (MacKenzie et al. 2002), which is very unlikely to be true. However, very abundant and easily detectable species, such as the long-tailed blue butterfly Lampides boeticus and Bosk's lizard Acanthodactylus boskianus, had high estimated detection probabilities and inaccurate distribution models, whereas species that are difficult to detect, such as Montpellier's snake Malpolon monspessulanus, had low estimated detectability but very accurate distribution models. An alternative explanation for the relationship between butterfly wingspan and distribution-model accuracy is that larger butterflies are more mobile and able to reach a greater proportion of suitable habitat, giving a closer correlation between environmental variables and occurrence (Pöyry et al. 2008), although the effect of body size on butterfly mobility is contentious (Cowley et al. 2001).
Estimates of model accuracy made using the data partitioning approach were relatively consistent with estimates made using the new survey data. This suggests that a data-partitioning approach can give us a good idea about the relative accuracy of models and can be used to compare model accuracy among species. Accuracy estimates made using the partitioned species records and pseudo-absences, and also with independent presence records and pseudo-absences, were much higher than estimates made using both independent presence and independent absence records. This is consistent with a previous suggestion that overly-optimistic estimates of model accuracy can be generated using pseudo-absence data (Lobo et al. 2008), but it should be borne in mind that the small numbers of independent records may partly explain the low measures of accuracy using independent data. Nevertheless, further comparisons of model accuracy using pseudo-absences and real absences are needed and it would be prudent not to use data partitioning as the sole method for evaluating distribution models, especially if the models will be used for conservation decision-making. The accepted threshold of 0.7 above which models are considered to be good (Pearce and Ferrier 2000) may place undeserved confidence in poor predictions.
Some of the variation in model accuracy was explained by range size. Species with larger ranges within Egypt were modelled less accurately than species with smaller ranges. A negative effect of range size on the accuracy of species distribution models has been reported before (Stockwell and Peterson 2002, Brotons et al. 2004, Segurado and Araújo 2004, Hernandez et al. 2006, Newbold et al. 2009b), but most of these studies have used real presence data with pseudo-absence data. Thus, the apparent effect of range size could be a statistical artefact owing to pseudo-absences being more distant in environmental space from the presence records for species with smaller range sizes (Lobo et al. 2008). Our results show that the distributions of species with smaller ranges are modelled more accurately even in the absence of statistical artefacts. This could be because narrowly-distributed species have more specific climate and habitat requirements than more widespread species (Brotons et al. 2004, Hernandez et al. 2006). Alternatively, separate populations of widespread species may show local adaptation to the environmental conditions in different parts of the study area (Stockwell and Peterson 2002, Brotons et al. 2004): although two of the butterfly species have more than one sub-species in Egypt (Carcharodus stauderi and Spialia doris; Gilbert and Zalat 2007), these distinctions were not considered in this study.
Surprisingly, we found a significant negative effect of the number of species records used to build models on the accuracy of model predictions. Most previous studies have found the relationship between sample size and model accuracy, if present, to be positive (Pearce and Ferrier 2000, Phillips et al. 2004). Several studies have shown that species with narrower distributions and more specific habitat requirements are modelled more accurately (Kadmon et al. 2003, Hernandez et al. 2006, Newbold et al. 2009b). It is probable that some aspect of this was captured by sample size but not by the measure of range size that we used. For example, more narrowly distributed species are likely to be less abundant (Gaston et al. 2000) and thus detected less often during surveys. Alternatively, habitat specialists may be easier to model because they have very specific requirements, but may be restricted to particular microhabitats or resources and thus have been detected less frequently in the past.
Ideally data used to evaluate the accuracy of distribution models should be completely independent of the data used to build the models and free from any bias (Chatfield 1995), but given limited resources this may not be possible (Wintle et al. 2005). Although our new species records contained some bias (for example, towards locations near roads), we reduced environmental bias by selecting sites that covered as broad a range of climate and habitat types as possible. This approach is better than simple data-partitioning, because some bias has been eliminated and because locational error in the records has been eliminated. Moreover, it is more practicable than a truly random survey, especially for less accessible areas such as Egypt. The time constraints imposed on our field expedition meant that we were only able to survey the northeast part of Egypt. Therefore, we cannot be certain that the models were accurate for other parts of Egypt, particularly in the Western desert where museum records are scarce. Nevertheless, at least in northeast Egypt, the models appeared to provide an accurate reflection of the distribution of species.
In conclusion, our results support the use of species distribution models in ecology. Predictions made for many species in three very different taxonomic groups were shown to be accurate using completely independent species occurrence data. However, there was considerable variation across species in the accuracy of distribution models. Distribution models have great potential as tools for conservation, but it is crucial that their predictions are first evaluated thoroughly. Currently, using completely independent data to evaluate model predictions is a rare practice, which is not surprising given that conducting new surveys can be time-consuming and very expensive (Wintle et al. 2005). However, we show that even small field surveys can be used to test model accuracy and can highlight patterns in the accuracy of models.
We thank Italian Cooperation (Debt Swap) for funding the BioMAP Project; Mustafa Fouda (Director of the Nature Conservation Sector, EEAA) for facilities and comments on the work; all the BioMAP staff (Ahmed Yakoub, Alaa Awad, Muhammed Sherif, Shama Omran, Shaimaa Esa, Yasmin Safwat, Nahla Ahmed, Esraa Saber); Mohammad Basuony and Abd El Aal Attia for help during dataset preparation and preliminary analysis; and Rashed Refaey, Ahmed Refaey and other Egyptian field guides for making the field expedition possible. This work was supported by the Natural Environment Research Council (grant number NER/S/A/2006/14170).
Ahmed El-Gabbas Website —


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Maracatu New York
Musician and Project Director - 2003-2007
Maracatu New York is New York's first and only Maracatu ensemble dedicated to the performance and knowledge of traditional Maracatu de Baque Virado and other musical styles from the Northeast of Brazil. In 2005 Maracatu NY was the first and only United States Maracatu group to travel to Recife, Brazil where they studied with Corpos Percussivos and Jorge Martins and performed in Carnaval. As a musician, mainly an alfaia player and singer although the group is trained on all relevant instruments, my performances with the group ranged all over New York and the tri-state area, as well as, D.C. Notable shows included GlobalFest, a curated showcase of world music, and Celebrate Brooklyn, a popular summer concert venue.
As Project Director from 2005 - 2007, I developed and managed the project. Responsibilities included organization, management, booking, marketing, costume design, development of visual design of brand, creation of copy, social networking, website design and maintenance, general administration and budget.
I appear on cds for the following groups/artists: Maracatu NY, Frank London and Cyro Baptista.
Puppets for Maracatu New York - 2014 - present
In more recent years, I created puppets for and performed them with Maracatu New York for the NYC Village Halloween Parade. Lola, Skeleton Lola, the Skeleton King and the Skeleton Maracatu Princesses were all made to pay homage via puppetry to the beautiful vision of the the traditional maracatu courts in Recife, Brazil.
Videos: (left to right)
Maracatu New York street performance on Bedford Avenue, Williamsburg, Brooklyn. I can be seen playing alfaia on the right.
Maracatu New York at the NYC Village Halloween Parade, 2005 - tshirts and banner designed and made by me, I can be seen playing alfaia while wearing a spider puppet costume of my making.
Maracatu New York at the NYC Village Halloween Parade, 2014 - Lola the Maracatu Queen puppet and the new Maracatu NY Banner make their debut
Maracatu New York at the NYC Village Halloween Parade, 2015 - Lola the Maracatu Queen dances again.
Photos: (left to right)
Maracatu New York at Celebrate Brooklyn

subset: commoncrawl


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A Villa Among the Trees
Found within an idyllic setting among mature trees, this 3-bedroom character villa is the perfect personification of home. From the amazing community it resides in, to its inviting and peaceful design and contemporary touches.
The stunning country kitchen is open and airy, with attractive wooden floors and bench tops. The open-plan space flows onto the dining area and out to the beautiful gardens through multiple French doors. A separate lounge provides a wonderful setting for quieter times. Spend the colder months warmed by the free-standing fire, then throw the French doors open in the summer for a refreshing indoor/outdoor flow. The Master-bedroom looks out over the garden and features a built-in wardrobe and incredible wooden floors. Two more spacious bedrooms provide room for the family, with one including an ensuite, while the family bathroom has been renovated for your comfort, offering a large clawfoot bath, walk-in shower, bidet and ample storage.
The lovely wrap around deck is a welcome addition to this charming character villa, offering the perfect sun-trap and views over your private and quiet gardens. The kids will be in heaven going on adventures through the 4-hectare landscape, while flat lawns provide plenty of space to spread out during those summer BBQs. Lloyd Valley stream runs through the property, providing a lovely shady paddling place in the hotter months. The outbuildings are sure to impress, with a double garage with laundry, double carport, a home-mechanic's dream inspection pit and additional sheds, some of which have 3-phase power.
It won't be hard to feel at home on this serene section and its truly magnificent abode. The only thing left to do, is make it yours!


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Our 2015 Summer Missions Ministry is in 'high-gear'! It began with a Spirit-filled Commissioning Service hosted by Immanuel Baptist Church. During the first two weeks, the Missionaries, along with Supervisors, Eric Sexton & Tim Womack, fanned-out across the association participating in 13 Vacation Bible Schools! They are so excited to be available to assist our churches in this way, as well as, participating in various Community Centers and putting in many hours volunteering at the Etowah Baptist Missions Center. It will be a 'jammed-packed' eight weeks and we are so glad to be allowed to serve our churches. May I make a plea for your assistance? While we work hard to hold-down costs, a financial short-fall occurs as we approach the end of the eighth week of ministry. We are so appreciative of churches who have supported this ministry in prior years. With that said, could I make an appeal for additional financial support? Several professions of faith have been made and many more lives will be touched and changed through this ministry in coming weeks. Thank you for considering a donation. Simply mark your check "Summer Missions". Thanks so much.
Gary, your Assn. Dir. of Missions


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Happy New Year Wishes for Your Lovely Brother 2019
New Year wishes for brother are meant for conveying your brother good wishes for the forthcoming New Year. Brothers are always special as we share a unique bonding with them in terms of understanding and sharing our personal joys and sorrows.
It is no way exception that during New Year Eve he is the special person with whom you wish to share your moment of celebration.
The New Year wishes for brother is a sincere expression of love, respect, and concern for your loving bro in an articulate manner. We have collected here a bunch of wonderful messages for your brother on your behalf.
New Year Greetings for Brother
Wish you laughter not smile, pure joy not just happiness, not only wealth but heavenly treasure and great peace of mew Year my dear Brother!!
As the old year passes by and a new year is coming at our door wish to send you heartiest greetings of pleasure and excellent health. May God bless you and gift you a wonderful year ahead.
Happy New Year Dear brother!! May God pour all happiness and peosperity on you during the coming New Year.
Life was tough indeed and full of ups and down. May God give you enough strength and stamina to bear the storms and rains with courage. Happy New Year my dear Bro!!!!
As the first ray of light will kiss your head tomorrow, a new year will be at your door. Wishing you a happy new year filled with great hopes and success as bright and pure as the sun ray kissed on your head.
New will be the coming year, may hopes will be new and iron like will be the determination; new will be the resolutions, renewed will be the spirit but my best wished will always be warm. Wish you a rewarding and gratifying New Year ahead.
May God bless you and keep you always safe and happy: my wish and blessing is not only for today but for the rest of life ahead. May the year 2019 come as the best among the best you have ever imagined for you.
My brother is one of the finest blessings for me poured from paradise. I wish to convey my love, respect, prayers, and good wishes for you for the coming New Year. Happy New Year my dear brother!!!!
Happy New Year Brother!!! Hope your New Year is packed with the warmth of light and the joy of mirth!
Wishing you a New Year with gallantry of heart, peace of the mind, and charisma in the performance!! Be blessed and enjoy the Happy New Year with lots of love and prosperity all around!!!!
If friends are like starts and my Brother is like moon I have often seen that stars looks magical on sky but without moon it becomes all dark. You are the lifeline of life happy New Year Brother.
As you're one very cute and special friends of mine Bro, I can't leave any chance to wish you all the very best and to wish you an entire year full of success and prosperity. Happy New Year Brother!!
Here Are My Happy New Year Wishes For Your lovely brother.
Happy New Year Wish For Brother 2019
I Start My New Year With Special People Like You My Dear Brother. You Have Been Fighting Obstacles Coming Your Way Courageously May This Year Favor Your. Let Favors From Heaven Pour Unto You As You Prepare To Start A New Journey.
15 Best New Year Wishes For Happy 2019
Out of our huge collection of new year wishes, here are Best New Year Wishes(Top 15) for Happy and Promising New Year 2019 based upon user interest, views and ratings.
Best wishes for a happy holidays
Best wishes for a happy holidays and new year filled with health, happiness, and spectacular success.
Happy New Year Wishes for Husband
It's True We Were Made For Each Other. The Time We Have Been Together Has Proved This And I Thank God For Having You As My Husband. Happy New Year My Love.
Next New Year Wishes
My wishes for you are not limited to just the next year but to all the years that you experience in your lifetime and in your reincarnations! Have a fun-filled, smashing, rocking and happening New Years!
New Happy New Year Abbreviation
Here are My Wishes for You.. H-Hours of happy times with friends and family A-Abundant time for relaxation P-Prosperity P-Plenty of love when you need it the most Y-Youthful excitement at life simple pleasures N-Nights of restful slumber (you know – don't worry be happy) E-Everything you need W-Wishing you love and light Y-Years and […]
Wonderful New Year Wishes
When The Clock Strikes Twelve On December 31st, People All Over The World Cheer And Wish Each Other A Very Happy New Year. For Some, This Event Is No More Than A Change Of A Calendar. For Others, The New Year Symbolizes The Beginning Of A Better Tomorrow. So, If You Look Forward To A […]
Happy Republic Day Brother
We The Young Generation Of This Nation Should Make A Vow A Vow To Protect This Nation From The Manacles Of Racism And All Acts Of Discrimination. Happy Republic Day Brother.
Happy New Year Bother in Law
Though Life Was Full Of Obstacles, You Have Managed To Cross The Bridge To This New Year. Though Your Hope Was Lost It Will Be Renewed This Year, May You Live To Be Firm And To Overcome Challenges Wishing You Happy New Year Bother in Law
2019 Basket of New Year Wishes / Greetings
Receive Warm Happy New Year Greetings And This Is Also To Wish You Prosperity In All Of Your Endeavors. May Every Time You Visit Your Garden For A Harvest Be Able To Fill Your Basket With All That Your Heart Wishes.
Missing & Wishing u Happy New Year My Friend
Remembering the warm hugs, Oh dear friend; Here are my wishes with all my love I send. May your sorrows drown and there're no tears; Missing you and sending wishes of Happy New Year!
Happy new year in advance to u & ur family.
Happy new year in advance to you & your family. This year will bring u prosperity, wealth, success, pleasure & leasure. Happy 2019. Enjoy evry bit of life
Best wishes for a happy holiday season
Seasons Greetings. In warm appreciation of our association during the past year, we extend our very best wishes for a happy holiday season.
Best Wishes for Your Brother in 2019
My wishes for you in year 2019 Great start for Jan, Love for Feb, Peace for march, No worries for April Fun for May, Joy for June to Nov, Happiness for Dec, Have a lucky and wonderful 2019.
11 Best Happy New Year Quotes SMS
Out of our collection here are Best New Year Quotes(Top 11) for Happy New Year 2019, we made this list based upon user interest, views and ratings.
Flowerfull Happy New Year
May You Find Happiness And Life In Everything That You Will Be Up To In This New Year. Wishing You Days Full Of Blossomed Flowers That Will Be Filling The Air With Sweet Scents Which Will Be Carrying You Away In The Chariots Of Joy. Happy New Year
Happy New Year Mother
God Has Given You Strength And Good Health The Whole Of That Year And It's My Prayer As We Begin Another Year You Will Be Stronger. Happy New Year Mother
Wishing Happy New Year to My Dearest Mother
Dearest Mother / Mom / Ammi, You Are The Best And I Am Ready To Sacrifice My Life For You. You Mean A Lot To Me. Wish You A Happy New Year Full Of Joy
May the new year bring these wishes
May the new year Bring these wishes to all of you Warmth of love, comfort of home Joy for your children, Company and support of family n friends A caring heart that accepts N treats all human beings equally Enrichment of knowledge n Richness of diversity Courage to seek n speak the truth Even if […]
Happy New Year Message to Mummy
Life Is Full Of Challenges But Mother I Have Never Heard You Ever Complain For Being Our Mother. You Always Struggle To Make Us Happy And We Appreciate. Happy New Year.
Cute Happy New Year Message
I met love, health, peace and joy, They needed a permanent place to stay for Year. I gave them ur address hope they arrived safely. Happy New Year
Pray for Happy New Year
As We Come To The End Of The Year And Usher A New One, Let Us Pray That It Will Be Full Of Fresh Peace, A Better Understanding And New Happiness. Happy New Year
Happy New Year Message For GirlFriend
On This New Year My Wishes And Prayers Only For You God Bless U & May Year To Follow Be Amid The Best U Has Ever Spent. Wish U A Happy New Year 2019. I Love U.
New Year Wishes For Mother
I Love You Mother For You Are A Strong Woman And Being There For Me Since I Was In Your Womb It Shows How Much Love You Have For Me. I Thank You For Being There For Me. Happy New Year MoM.!
Happy New Year in Bengali
May This New Year Be One Of Its Kinds. May It Be An Opportunity To Fill Your Life With Bright Cheer And Happiness. May It Bring Prosperity And Joy For The Rest Of Your Life. Have A Great New Year for All my Bengali Friends. Happy New Year in Bengali is called,"Happy Nobo Borsho"
Wishing Happy New Year To Sister
I Pray That This Year Will Be A Blessed To You. May God Show You Direction For You To Follow, May You Remain Peaceful In Mind, May You Be Healthy This Year. May You Live To Enjoy Every Single Minute You Get This Year, Happy New Year My Sister.
Wishing You Happy New Year 2019!
Old Year Is Coming To An End, We Give Warm Welcome The New Year, All Your Worries Will Also End, Wishing You Happy New Year !
Sending u Happy Women's Day Wishes
Sending you wishes to say you blossom up the world around me! Happy Women's Day!
Happy Republic Day 2019 Wishes
All May There Be Peace and Prosperity and May We Rejoice In the Blessings that Our Country Has Given Us Happy Best Republic Day Wishes to All


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Melbourne fintech Nauticus Blockchain has targeted a $25 million equity raise to fulfill its vision for low cost, borderless financial transactions.
The company launched in 2018 and has amassed a 50,000 strong community across Facebook, Telegram and Twitter, who help guide the development of its products. Trading on its digital currency exchange went live in the fourth quarter of last year. It now offers 17 currencies and AUD with more added each week.
The funds raised will enable Nauticus to onboard 2.9 million users by 2022 and support an extensive cross-platform marketing spend, cross jurisdiction banking and financial licenses and to expand the team internationally. Conservative discounted cash flow analysis values the business post raise at $74.2 million.
"We urge people who share our vision of ethical, low cost and borderless finance to join us on this journey," CEO Bryan Ng said.
The head of accounting firm First Accountants, Ng founded the company after watching his overseas born staff members struggle with high fees as they wired money to their families.
"Imagine what a difference it would make in a developing country if 100% of the money arrived in the local economy, rather than 90-95% after the wire transfer companies have taken their cut," he asked.
With 280,000 accounts in 84 countries around the world, Nauticus is well on its way to becoming Australia's first globally focused digital currency exchange. The team draws talent from National Australia Bank (AUS), ANZ (AUS), Goldman Sachs (UK), Bank of Melbourne (AUS), Accenture (USA), News Corp (AUS) and Telstra (AUS).
Nauticus is built on the twin foundations of security and compliance, a key requirement as the company moves into securities trading, FOREX and international remittances later this year. Nauticus is regulated by AUSTRAC and is an authorized representative of an AFSL licensee, enabling it to tokenize assets and company shares.
The intuitive mobile app has just been submitted to the Google Play store. Based on the Easy Trading Wizard, it aims to making trading digital currencies, FOREX and international payments as simple as possible for newcomers.
Supply Chain Management Association Becomes Supply Chain Canada
At its AGM yesterday, the Supply Chain Management Association announced its name change to Supply Chain Canada. The association also launched a new website as part of an overall rebranding initiative.
"The new name and look are part of a transformation that we have undertaken as the association enters its second century," said Christian Buhagiar, President & CEO of Supply Chain Canada. "Today's supply chains are dynamic and fast-paced. The association for Canada's supply chain professionals must reflect that."
Through the rebranding process, the association has also acquired a meaningful new logo and tagline, "Professionals advancing the future."
The logo's maple leaf design not only conveys our nationality; it also represents the connectedness of the supply chain, illustrating the networks and collaboration that are so essential to supply chain success, and the interconnectedness of the association's federation, institutes and members. Its connected dots can be seen, as well, as the complex route of a global supply chain.
"Professionals advancing the future" succinctly communicates both the professional status of supply chain practitioners and their forward-looking perspective. It is intended to:
- Elevate the perception of supply chain practitioners as professionals, acknowledging the value they bring to their organizations and to the Canadian economy.
- Encompass the several ways that the association and its members "advance" – in their personal careers and knowledge, and for the profession, the country and the economy.
- Express the future focus of the association – with its emphasis on the development of skills and policies – and of the supply chain itself, now so focused on AI, blockchain, robotics, automation and so on.
The new website, now at www.supplychaincanada.com, is enhanced with a modern look and new functionality that enables location-based content for users across Canada.
These changes are not simply style enhancements. They are part of a larger plan to strengthen the association. Supply Chain Canada consolidates the organization's brand across the country under a single name in every province and territory, removing any possible confusion from its federation structure. "The unity that this will ensure will help us improve recognition in the sector, and thereby provide stronger leadership to the Canadian supply chain community," said Buhagiar.
The association's transformation began in 2018 with a new vision and mission, as well as an ambitious three-year strategic plan. The new name and rebranding announced yesterday are part of a larger evolution that will continue over the next two years with the introduction of new and revised educational offerings, new initiatives to engage with industry, more value-added membership benefits and more.
SOURCE Supply Chain Canada
Export Portal to Address Best Practices in Sustainable Trade Facilitation at the Asia-Pacific Trade Facilitation Forum
Export Portal CEO Ally Spinu will be adding her take on the alignment of trade facilitation and sustainable development goals at a session at the 9th Asia-Pacific Trade Facilitation Forum (APTFF) in New Delhi.
"The Asia-Pacific region is a wealth of unexplored opportunities which lay deep in the communities of local businessmen and women that just need support in bringing their amazing products to the world to see and buy," Ms. Spinu said. "I am looking forward to this event and being a part of the change that will help local businesses from this part of the world sell their products globally. I deeply believe that shifting attention to developing SMEs is the major change international trade and local economies have been waiting for."
This year's APTFF will focus on how digital and sustainable trade facilitation measures and practices can bring prosperity in the Asia-Pacific region. The forum will investigate opportunities from trade digitalization for sustainable progress of the area and challenges ahead in materializing such opportunities. APTFF will feature panel discussions as well as interactive and informative sessions. These sessions will allow participants to share experiences and perspectives on different aspects of trade facilitation, including trade finance, cross-border eCommerce and paperless trade, transit, innovative application of emerging technologies, and more. APTFF will bring relevant regional initiatives and implementation cases to each session, making it a unique opportunity to share knowledge and practical lessons. The forum will also include many side-events providing a more in-depth exploration of the pertinent trade facilitation issues.
"Agricultural products are the fastest category and industry growing within Export Portal, and I can say that is just natural that SMEs around the world are actively looking for new ways for selling their products around the world," Ms. Spinu said. "The role of innovative technologies such as Export Portal is crucial in helping these SMEs integrate within the world supply chain of food with ease and at optimal costs. I want to explain the current issues existing within SMEs' integration in international trade due to the high cost involved and how technology slowly but surely changes this."
Export Portal's trade goals align directly with the purpose of this session, as its international B2B trade platform is an affordable and all-encompassing solution for SMEs all over the world. The features that are available and being developed on Export Portal, such as the panel of experts (EP+), the educational hub (EPU), and data flow insights (EPI), provide SMEs with the resources they need to trade effectively on an international scale safely, securely, and efficiently.
The Digital and Sustainable Trade Facilitation for Regional Prosperity session is co-organized by ADB, ESCAP, Ministry of Commerce, India and Confederation of Indian Industry and will be held on Wednesday, September 18, from 9:00 to 10:45 AM.
SOURCE Export Portal
Crypto.com Lists Lisk (LSK)
Crypto.com, the pioneering payments and cryptocurrency platform, announced today that it has listed Lisk (LSK) to its App. LSK joins a growing list of cryptocurrencies and stablecoins on the Crypto.com platform, such as Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH), Litecoin (LTC), XRP, TrueUSD (TUSD), PAXOS (PAX), and its own MCO and CRO Tokens.
Lisk is a next generation platform that allows for the development and distribution of JavaScript based decentralized applications using an easy to use, fully featured ecosystem. Through Lisk, developers can build, publish, distribute, and monetize their applications within a custom built cryptocurrency powered system that utilizes custom blockchains, smart contracts, cloud storage, and computing nodes; all from within one industry solution.
With LSK added to the Crypto.com, users can now purchase it at true cost with no fees – credit card and bank transfer both supported. As Crypto.com also offers the MCO Visa Card, this adds additional utility to LSK as users can easily convert cryptocurrencies into fiat currencies and spend at over 40m merchants globally.
SOURCE Crypto.com
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Chief Technology Officer (CTO)
3800 - 5000 SGDEquity Profit Sharing
Business Development | Technical Support | UI/UX | Full-stack Developer | Front-End Developers | Back-End Developers | Project Management | Big Data
Strategic Thinking | Self-starter | Leadership | Entrepreneurial | Project Management | Web Systems | Technical Aptitude | Node.js | React.js | Programming Languages
We are looking for a Chief Technology Officer (CTO) to provide sound technical leadership in a startup environment. Strategic thinking and strong business acumen are essential in this role. We expect you to be well versed in technological trends, familiar with a variety of business concepts and a passion for creating technology solutions in the events and concierge industry.
You will work directly under the CEO and will act as both a technology and business expert, making decisions that will impact the current and future operations of the company in the area of technology and development of OwlGo.
- Leading the strategy for technology platforms, partnerships and external relationships.
- Represent the technological agenda in meetings; and when making hiring decisions for the technology team.
- Define delivery phases of the project inducing activities, sub-activities, and milestones ensuring these are documented and used as the basis for the project event log, issues and risk log and any subsequent reporting.
- Identify, compare, select and implement technology solutions to meet immediate and future needs.
- Implement high quality code in an agile, test-driven development environment.
- Oversee all system design and changes in system architecture; always be up to date with new trends and best practices in technology landscape.
- Provide regular and effective progress updates and work closely with the team to ensure the management of any delivery risks or issues; track, analyse and monitor technology performance metrics.
- Bachelors in Computer Science, Engineering or a related field.
- Proven work experience as a CTO or similar leadership role.
- Up-to-date with the latest design trends, techniques and technologies.
- In-depth knowledge of web systems, architecture, design and development.
- Hands on experience with complex project management.
- Understanding of budgets and business planning.
- Leadership and organizational abilities.
- Strategic thinking with problem solving aptitude.
- A self-starter, good communicator and efficient team player.
- Familiarity with event organising a bonus.
Interested candidates are invited to submit a comprehensive resume, stating current and expected salary, and date of availability.
We regret that only shortlisted candidates will be notified.
Business To Business
10 - 19
Hustle & Bustle is a dynamic and energetic integrated event agency, spearheading unique & memorable experiences for your esteemed brand customers.
Committed to building brand loyalty through premium concierge services, 360 lifestyle management, event technology solutions and unparalleled access to exceptional experiences.
Young, dynamic and vibrant.
Be part of the Hustle & Bustle team behind creating memorable experiences, crafted from deliberate thought and a genuine desire to bring our guests through a unique journey.


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Garage Door Services
At Atlas Mechanical our garage door technicians provide service maintenance procedures for smooth and reliable operation. It doesn't matter what the problem is, our garage door service professionals are here for you!
Keep you and your family safe by ensuring your garage door has the best protection again inclement weather and hurricanes.


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In 2009 driver Justin Lofton and team owner Eddie Sharp made history together. They earned the ARCA Racing Series championship in dominant fashion by claiming six race wins, 15 top- fives, and 19 top-10s. Two weeks ago, the Lofton/Sharp duo reunited in the NASCAR Camping World Truck Series (NCWTS). This weekend, the two will revisit another aspect of their successful past by switching truck numbers on the CollegeComplete.com Toyota from 46 to the storied No. 6, which Lofton ran during his 2009 title season.
"To be able to return to the No. 6 brings everything full circle. Justin and I had a lot of success in the No. 6 and the team still runs that number from time to time in the ARCA Series. When we got the all clear to switch from the 46, we began the process. It ties everything together and is really neat," team owner Sharp said of the change.
Two seasons ago, Lofton drove the Eddie Sharp Racing (ESR) No. 6 Toyota to victory lane six times spanning short tracks, intermediate tracks, and superspeedways.
"I'm really looking forward to getting back behind the wheel of the No. 6. The number is a really important part of my racing career and to be back here with Eddie, to have Dan (Bormann) as my crew chief, and to be back with the 6, it really means a lot," Lofton said.
Since returning to ESR two races ago, Lofton has finishes of 15th and 12th while behind the wheel of the No. 46 CollegeComplete.com Toyota. Following last week's 12th place showing in Iowa, Lofton picked up a spot in the driver standings to 18th, and moved Sharp up two spots in the owner standings to 20th.
Justin Lofton PR


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Rap Queen Sensational MONSTER Drops New Gospel Jam Under 64HIPHOP
Eldoret is known to be a hotbed of talent, and hip hop is taking over the streets as many are embracing the genre in their daily lives. The town is said to have raised a number of well-known successful talents enthusiasts who have taken hiphop to national stage and represent the country at various levels.
Another story goes untold, welcome to the world of Christian rap. She goes by the name MONSTER, a 21 year old rap queen from Eldoret city, who has just unveiled her latest single I AM A SINNER. The song is more of a prayer and where she talks on the out and about of the gospel music industry. MONSTER is one of the few gospel female rap acts that is about to make waves in Kenya.
The song was recorded and video shot by Evano from the music label 64hiphop, who managed to work with King Kaka (Ligi Soo, Najipendelea ft Gnako, Joh Makini), Don Low (Zambia), Kins, Naeku, Shamro (Tanzania) among others.


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Image Credit: Twitter
3 Indians died of exhaustion due to traffic jam at Mount EverestFriday 24th of May 2019 08:00:00 PM | in Miscellaneous
You must have heard about major traffic jams on roads but have you heard of jams on mountain peaks? Yes! Recently a photo went viral of the world's highest mountain peak Mount Everest go overcrowded this week that there was a long queue of people waiting to reach the summit and in the middle of this 3 Indians climbers lost their lives due to exhaustion. Earlier, 2 deaths were reported, and now 1 more has been added.


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APMP Exam Top Trainer Tips
Home › Forums › APM PMQ Study Group › APMP Exam Top Trainer Tips
This topic contains 3 replies, has 1 voice, and was last updated by Paul Naybour 7 years, 8 months ago.
- AuthorPosts
- 28th December 2011 at 12:38 #14453
Margit who is studying for the APMP by distance learning has asked me to write down all the trainers tips we discussed on the phone Yesterday. These are just some tips to help you remember the different parts of the APM body of knowledge. They are in general simplifications so are not a replacement for real study, but never the less people find them useful. I am sure there are many others so please feel free to add to the list.
1) Answer to Questions About Benefits
Many of the questions in the APMP ask about the benefits of project management process or clarity of a role. For example describe the benefits of clear requirements. In answering these questions it is useful to use the the triangle of balance as a prompt list i.e. time, cost and quality. I would also add benefits and risk to this prompt list. For example the benefits of clear requirements are
1) The project has a better chance of being delivered on time if the requirements are clearly defined because teams will know what products have to be produced and when. The project is also much less likely to suffer time delays cause by rework during acceptance.
2) The project has a much lower chance of over spend if the requirements are clearly defined because producing and reworking product to emergent requirements can be very expensive. If the requirements can be fully defined before the products are produced then the cost of rework can be significantly reduced.
3) If the requirements are poorly defined then the quality of the product produced will be significantly diminished. Unclear requirements or change requirements make it almost impossible for project trams to produce a good quality product.
4) Poor requirements significantly increase the risk to the project, the chances of a major change emerging as significantly increased if the requirements are poorly defined. One of the most effective risk reduction measure can be to ensure that the requirements are fully documented at an early stage.
5) A project can fail to deliver its full benefits is the requirements are poorly defined. For example failure to understand the user requirements can result in the delivery of a system which deliver less than optimal benefits to the users.
This same prompt list can be used to answer many of the benefits, such as the benefits of good communications, benefits of project management etc.28th December 2011 at 12:38 #14455
Another area people struggle with is remembering the principles of governance as applied to project management. One of my delegates came up with SAD BET
Senior Management have a responsibility for governance.
Accountability needs to be defined for governance.
Disclosure of information about the project must be open and honest
Business case must be in place and align with the corporate strategy for every project
Evaluation of project by external peer groups is a required to ensure it remains in control
Termination of projects that don't have a viable business case must be done.28th December 2011 at 12:39 #14454
If you need to test you project management terms and definition try our free project managment flash cards.
- AuthorPosts
You must be logged in to reply to this topic.


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Common Ingredients In Teeth Whitening Products
Some people like to know what goes into their bodies. If you are such a person, then you will want to know the composition of teeth whitening agents before bleaching your teeth. Below is an overview of some of the major ingredients in these bleaching products. Active Ingredient The active ingredient is the substance that gets rids of the stains to whiten your teeth. Current teeth whitening products have either hydrogen peroxide or carbamide peroxide as the active ingredient.


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adidas Originals
adidas Originals Forest Hills Shoes - Ftwr White/Cream White/Crystal White
37.48 £37.48 £74.95
- Details
- Delivery & Returns
- Reviews
adidas Originals Forest Hills ShoesThe adidas Originals Forest Hills is a retro revival of a cult classic from the 70s tennis era. The shoe is named after the famous tennis ground in Queens, New York. The Forest Hills was best known for its affiliation with tennis in the 70s and this is a bring back with an elevated modern feel. Built up in premium leather and mesh creating a slick highly breathable shoe.
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- Price$425,000
- Beds3
- Baths3
- Sq. Ft.2,713
- Acres0.28
- Built2002
7301 Bachelors Button Drive, 102 - North
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Essential Information
- Price$425,000
- Bedrooms3
- Bathrooms3.00
- Full Baths2
- Half Baths1
- Square Footage2,713
- Acres0.28
- Year Built2002
- TypeResidential
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- StatusActive-Exclusive Right
- UtilitiesCable Wired
- FeaturesCC&RS, Clubhouse, Gated, Tennis Courts
- # of Garages3
- GaragesAttached, Auto Door Opener(s), Entryto House
- Exterior FeaturesCovered Patio
- Lot Description1/4 to 1 Acre
- RoofTile
Additional Information
- Date ListedAugust 16th, 2019
- Days on Market33
- ZoningSingle Family
Community Information
- Address7301 Bachelors Button Drive
- Area102
- SubdivisionTENAYA FARMS UNIT 2A
- City102 - North
- CountyClark County
- StateNV
- Zip Code89131
- Interior FeaturesAlarm System-Wired, Intercom
- AppliancesMicrowave
- HeatingCentral
- FireplaceYes
- # of Fireplaces1
- FireplacesGas
- # of Stories1
- Stories1 Story
School Information
- ElementaryRhodes Betsy
- MiddleCadwallader Ralph
- HighArbor View
Listing Details
- Listing AgentJohn Harney
- Listing OfficeFuture Realty
Price Change History for 7301 Bachelors Button Drive, 102 - North, NV (MLS® #2126659)
|Price Reduced (from $435,000)
|$10,000 (2.30%)
The data relating to real estate for sale on this web site comes in part from the INTERNET DATA EXCHANGE Program of the Greater Las Vegas Association of REALTORS® MLS. Real estate listings held by brokerage firms other than this site owner are marked with the IDX logo.
The information being provided is for the consumers' personal, non-commercial use and may not be used for any purpose other than to identify prospective properties consumers may be interested in purchasing.
Copyright 2019 of the Greater Las Vegas Association of REALTORS® MLS. All rights reserved.
GLVAR deems information reliable but not guaranteed.


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Single Family Detached
- 3 beds
- $1,125,000 price
- 5967099 listing id
- Square Feet: 3,389 sqft
- Year Built: 2017
Amazing home in Wickenburg Ranch. Stunning views from the two 9' sliding glass walls. Open great room and kitchen area, custom tile back splash in kitchen, walk in pantry, ''smart space'' laundry design, impressive master bath with glass surround walk in shower, dual shower heads and access to private patio. Open the sliding glass doors to enjoy the wrap around patio, perfect for entertaining and added living space. Too many upgrades to list! Come see what luxury living is in Wickenburg Ranch! Schedule your appointment today!
Community Information
- Style Other Style
Courtesy of: CENTURY 21 Arizona West
Office Phone: +19286842222
Copyright Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service, Inc. All rights reserved. Information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
Updated: 18th September, 2019 3:45 AM.
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