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Better Know a Bias: Cognitive Dissonance
Danny Gray
August 08 2011 09:35AM
Why do people get so angry about advanced statistics?
Kent Wilson posted an excellent article titled The Theory and Nature of Current Advanced Hockey Analysis. He eloquently describes the ultimate utility of advanced statistics as "aimed at teasing apart the variables that moderate possession at both the individual and team level". The variables include "quality of line mates, quality of opposition and starting position." With the overarching goal being "to isolate individual contributions to possession, be it from the players themselves, or coaching systems, face-off zones, playing-to-score effect, the nature of different positions, etc." If he only knew how wrong he is.
Unfortunately for
Cognitive Dissonance
This behavior is a result of Cognitive Dissonance, a theory developed by Leon Festringer. It states that when a person holds two conflicting thoughts, or cognitions, that are incompatible or inconsistent, feelings of discomfort, or dissonance, are produced. Essentially, we do not like to hear or think things contrary to established beliefs, attitudes, or knowledge. When something we see or read conflicts with a firmly held belief it makes us uncomfortable. People attempt to silence the discomfort created by the dissonance in different ways depending on the magnitude of the established belief being challenged. Generally, we attempt to seek information that will decrease the dissonance as well as avoid information that would increase it. I'll deal with selective exposure later.
First I want to share a story that illustrates the ends to which people will resort to silence cognitive dissonance. Festringer believed that information that is incompatible with a closely held belief or attitude will produce higher levels of dissonance. In such instances people often refuse to acknowledge the dissonance and engage in behavior that actually exacerbates it while remaining ignorant to it. It is important to note that people are usually not consciously aware of the dissonance created by conflicting information. Most of the time people believe they are acting in a perfectly rational way.
What Do Fans And Cult Members Have In Common?
Every so often there is an individual or group who believes the world is going to end for some reason or another. In the summer of 1954 it was a Chicago Housewife named Marian Keech (Her real name was Dorothy Martin). According to a newspaper article she had been receiving communications from the plante Clarion. The communication had been ongoing for several years but had recently become more tantalizing. According to Sananda, the alien from Clarion who was communicating with Mrs. Martin, humanity would be destroyed by a flood of biblical proportions at midnight on December 20, 1954.
Leon Festinger read the article and learned that Keech had gained a small group of apocalyptic devotees. As those who believe the world is coming to an end are wont to do, they quit their jobs and sold their homes in preparation for the impending apocalypse. Seeking to demonstrate the influence of cognitive dissonance Festinger joined the group posing as a true believer in Sanada's prophesy.2 He wanted to see what would happen when the end of the world did not come. Jonah Lehrer describes what happened next.
"On the night of December 20, Keech's followers gathered in her home and waited for instructions from the aliens. Midnight approached. When the clock read 12:01 and there were still no aliens, the cultists began to worry. A few began to cry. The aliens had let them down. But then Keech received a new telegram from outer space, which she quickly transcribed on her notepad. "This little group sitting all night long had spread so much light," the aliens told her, "that god saved the world from destruction. Not since the beginning of time upon this Earth has there been such a force of Good and light as now floods this room." In other words, it was their stubborn faith that had prevented the apocalypse. Although Keech's predictions had been falsified, the group was now more convinced than ever that the aliens were real. They began proselytizing to others, sending out press releases and recruiting new believers. This is how they reacted to the dissonance of being wrong: by becoming even more certain that they were right."3
The more invested we are in a belief the more difficult it is to deal with any cognitive dissonance created by conflicting information. Keech's followers show that if you can find enough people who share your belief it will be validated, even in the face of overwhelming contrary evidence.
Hockey fans can be a little like cult members waiting for the apocalypse. In October we all believe that our team is destined to succeed. Come April they will reach the promised land of the playoffs. When the deadline passes and your team is not in the playoffs a dissonance is created. Fans congregate on message boards and in bars. In an attempt to reduce the dissonance they place blame with the coaching staff or make an individual a scapegoat. Their fandom is further cemented in the belief that once they fix those issues everything will be better. It is much easier to accept that the team was terrible because of a bad coach or specific player than because they are merely a terrible team. The fan can therefore maintain the belief that Team A is good while simultaneously acknowledging that Team A finished 28th overall in a 30 team league. A large group sharing the same belief validates said belief and the dissonance is reduced.
We often resort to rationalizing when confronted with information that contradicts our established beliefs. This is why people say things like "You rely too much on math", "Phil Kessel sucks because he doesn't cross-check enough" or the ubiquitous "Do you even watch the games?" When we see or read evidence that conflicts with an established belief we seek to rationalize it as opposed to modifying our belief. Dissonance can also be reduced by resorting to selective exposure.
Twitter As Selective Exposure
In his book How We Decide Jonah Lehrer describes a 1967 study by two cognitive psychologists named Timothy Brock and Joe Balloun. "Half of the subjects involved in the experiment were regular churchgoers, and half were committed atheists. Brock and Balloun played a tape-recorded message attacking Christianity, and, to make it more interesting, they added an annoying amount of static- a crackle of white noise- to the recording. However, the listener could reduce the static by pressing a button, at which point the message suddenly became easier to understand." Unsurprisingly, "the nonbelievers always tried to remove the static, while the religious subjects actually preferred the message that was harder to hear." People will go to great lengths to silence cognitive dissonance.
One of the best things about the Barilkosphere is that it allows me to filter the content I engage with. Twitter and the daily FTB at Pension Plan Puppets limit my exposure to mittenstringery. Unfortunately, this is a method of selective exposure. This is not to suggest that anyone offering an opposing view is inherently correct, simply that we should be aware of our tendency to filter out conflicting information. We can effectively respond to cognitive dissonance by being willing to alter our beliefs in the face of conflicting information. The best way to do that is to seek out information that challenges our beliefs and opinions as much as possible. Since dissonance is amplified by the magnitude of the challenged belief we should try and remain as objective as possible. On the other hand, no Senator has ever done anything impressive ever.
1. http://flamesnation.ca/2011/7/23/the-theory-and-nature-of-contemporary-hockey-analysis#comments
2. Festinger's experiences with the cult are detailed in the book When Prophecy Fails
3. http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2011/01/cognitive-dissonance/.
Good post, I believe advanced stats are very valuable in determining and rationalizing an argument. I will also say however, and have publically on my blog, that advanced stats alone may not tell the whole story which is where I feel certian writters may fall victim to the numbers.
As Kent also wrote, ". Further complicating matters is that fact there are always variables and events that can't be foreseen: injuries, the effect of unknown or unpredicted additions/subtractions to the roster, locker room discord, etc. The future can never be fully known. That's what makes the whole thing worth watching after all"
I've actually been surprised at the amount of Ranger fans who are accepting the advanced statistics - as I thought it would be a huge battle. There are pockets of resistance, but as long as they are related back into context and explained, everything goes well. The worst example lately is the chatter of Stepan and the possible sophomore slump; because according to those that swear only by their eyes you can't determine a players role with numbers (and how he'll react when you give him a harder and heavier role)... right.
Great stuff though.
August 08 2011, 12:02PM
Yup. The Future can't be perfectly modeled. There's just too many things that can happen.
That said, nothing can correct for that sort of uncertainty when it comes to projections. However, you can try to account for those sources or error or influence by carefully looking at the data after they have occurred as well as considering important statistic principles (power, reliability, validity, etc.)
Nice article.
My favourite example of cognitive dissonance is a case where you pay two people to write an article that is contrary to their own opinion (e.g. write an article about why their hometown is a terrible place). One person is paid $50 to write the article while the other is only paid $5. The person who is paid the larger sum which justify the article saying they don't believe what they wrote, they only wrote it for the money. In contrast, the person paid only $5 will adjust their own opinion along the lines of "My hometown was okay, I guess... but it had a lot of problems."
Bloggers & Cognitive Dissonance: When faced with contradictory information or evidence, a paid journalist might accept the information and say they were wrong (i.e. they wrote the article because its their job - they don't have to believe in it). An unpaid blogger, on the other hand, will feel more pressured to defend their position (e.g. "advanced statistics are the best thing ever, they can't be wrong, they are better than real life...").
(I actually like stats, though... just wanted to point out the flipside of CD.)
The issue I have with this is that you attribute to CD opinions and reactions that could equally well be explained by differences in learning styles, information processing tendencies and personality traits.
For every person who says that "you do too much math, try watching the game," there is another who says "if I can't put a number on it, I don't want to hear about it (the intangibles argument)." Is this cognitive dissonance or a completely different manner of relating to the world?
August 09 2011, 06:30AM
One of the most common ways to fight off dissenting opinions is to discredit the messenger, not the facts/conclusion. It happens all the time. If you can somehow discredit the messenger for any reason regardless of relevancy it allows people to (wrongly) transfer that discredit to anything that person says.
August 09 2011, 07:24AM
One of the most common ways to fight off dissenting opinions is to discredit the messenger, not the facts/conclusion. It happens all the time. If you can somehow discredit the messenger for any reason regardless of relevancy it allows people to (wrongly) transfer that discredit to anything that person says.
e.g. referring to the mainstream media as mittenstringers. The idea that anything in the papers is automatically less valuable than what's on a blog is a bit of CD that pops up often.
August 09 2011, 07:29AM
Not everyone on a network or in a paper is a mittenstringer. Mittenstringers could be anywhere - you can identify them by their inability to say anything they aren't repeating (including themselves).
As to saneopinion's comment, which was great, _nothing_ tells the whole story. Nothing ever does.
August 09 2011, 11:32AM
e.g. referring to the mainstream media as mittenstringers. The idea that anything in the papers is automatically less valuable than what's on a blog is a bit of CD that pops up often.
Just what a mittenstringer sympathiser would say!
August 09 2011, 12:25PM
Just what a mittenstringer sympathiser would say!
Ha! Not really. Just making the point that we should look at what's being said and evaluate it on its merits, and not discount things because of the source. You know, the way some people in the media discount blogs... ;)
On the other hand, there is something very interesting to be discovered in an analysis of media sources. I'm sure it's been done to some extent, but I wonder how it plays out in the hockey world. I'm just reading "Is Google Making Us Stupid?" by Nicolas Carr (read the Atlantic Monthly article here: http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2008/07/is-google-making-us-stupid/6868/). The old idea that the medium is the message applies here, too. To extrapolate, it may be that the WAY newspaper reporters go about their job informs the opinions they end up having/expressing, (and the way they express them, perhaps as fact when it's just an opinion).
Anyway, all this to say, I was agreeing that it is in fact very nuanced, and just pointing out a bit of non-nuance that seems to creep (or run screaming) into the puckosphere fairly regularly. Play fair for both sides, kids!


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Christina Gao is sixteen and Agnes Zawadzki will be sixteen in July. Kimmie Meissner was world champion at sixteen. Mirai Nagasu was U.S. champion at 14. At 13 Caroline Zhang won her junior grand prix events by 53 points and 33 points, won thejunior grand prix final by 20 points, won the junior world championship, and was heralded as the second coming of Sasha Cohen for her positions, spins and spirals.
I think wait and see is all we can say at this point.
Agreed. You see, I think she has potential but I get the sense she's just a tad bit overhyped (is it her coach?)As for Gao, I'm excited about her but I think she needs a transformation like Michelle Kwan's in 1996 to be a world medal contender. Not saying it won't happen this year but we'll just have to wait and see. Judging from the results last year though, she already is a U.S. championship medal threat.
It was great to see Czisny come out of nowhere and have the skate of her life during 2007 Nats to become the surprise bronze medalist. Her first National medal, and most thought it would be her only one. She usually has good GP results but has never been able to hold it together at Worlds (or Nationals, with the exceptions of 2007 and 2009). Can't see how staying in longer will change that, but more power to her if she wants to continue. It's not always about the medals after all.I'm not surprised to hear Alissa is not retiring. Ever since I read that Brian Boitano urged her not to leave competitive skating with any regrets I expected to her to at least keeping training through the summer... I'm glad because I always love watching her. But it's hard to have any expectations. Quite apart from her nerves, I think she'll be at a total disadvantage with the new rules. She'll be able to rely even less on her spins and spirals to compete against much better jumpers. But I"m glad for her that she is not throwing in the towel. Good for her.
Generally I agree, but I would replace Gao with Flatt. Gao, maybe 4th place. She would have been 4th this year if it hadn't been for Cohen's "return" (albeit, a distant 4th).If I had to make a very early prediction, I see these three ladies medaling at US championships: Nagasu, Wagner, Gao. Always assuming they skate clean...
You can say what you want, but Kimmie was imploding just one year after she won worlds, Mirai was imploding in the 08-09 season due to her growth spurt, and Caroline imploded this season (save 4CC). The culprit? Growing pains. This is why in some ways Agnes and Christina aren't really at a disadvantage - sure if you're amazing as a 13 year old, 4-foot-8, 70 pound mite then you'll get a lot of hype, but chances are you'll grow half a foot and gain 40 pounds before you stop and then your body is so different that it has to readjust. I mean, Mirai is 17 and she just became a force again recently. In the 08-09 season, she was the same age as Agnes and Christina and was much worse (really, really low GP scores), so technically Mirai's progression in the past year could be compared to a unknown skater the same age who was fairly mediocre and then had a big break aka Agnes or Christina.
Nagasu was able to bounce back this season. It remains to be seen whether Zhang can do the same next season, or even if Nagasu can keep up the momentum and not let her Worlds slip-up trip her up.
Meissner has had a strain of bad luck lately but honestly I think she is past her prime. Wouldn't mind seeing her put down some skates she is happy with though.
The key for these young up-and comers is to KEEP IMPROVING. Be the best you're capable of and let the chips fall where they may. Unless your name is Mirai Nagasu, keep an eye on that rear-view mirror.
Last edited by R.D.; 05-09-2010 at 10:19 PM.
I wasn't aware that Agnes trained with Rachel Flatt. I knew about Gao and Yuna though. Nothing like having someone better than you around to push you and motivate you.
It was great that NBC took the time to show Gao last year. Even if these skaters DO turn out to be all they're cracked up to be, I don't see it happening next season. Possibly the 2011-12 season at the earliest.
What's more interesting to me is:
Can Nagasu can build upon her stellar season (save Worlds)?
Can Wagner conquer her SP demons?
Can Flatt take it to the next level now with more time/attention to devote to skating?
Will Zhang take the time to try to improve her basics so she can get back in the game?
Will Czisny be able to redeem herself after the crushing defeat at 2010 Nats as the reigning champ?
Will any old-timers (e.g. Meissner, Hughes) try to stick it out at least for another year or two?
That and more, coming up next. Stay tuned.
Last edited by R.D.; 05-09-2010 at 10:57 PM. Reason: organize post.
Castile/Okolski and Navarro/Bommentre are also retiring per Ice Network.
I'm so bummed. I love their skating.
It's sad to see them go, but they will always be US Champions (C/O) and Olympians (N/B). Best wishes to Kim and Brent, and Brooke and Ben, and thanks for all the beautiful skating.
Does anyone know what Wester and Barantsev are doing? They didn't do well last time I saw them, I think they were coming off injuries (?) but a couple of season ago I thought they were great.
What about Kristine Musademba? I saw she's listed for some USFSA funding but how's she doing? I know she was injured.
Jennifer and Daniil were in a show in China recently per Jennifer's facebook... I know she's working very hard with designing costumes for skaters as well as her figure skating couture line. I think they may have moved on, but I hope not. I really love watching them skate.
Nice! I didn't know she did costumes. What's the diff between costumes for skaters and skating couture? Has she done costumes that I would have seen at Nats or internationally? Thanks for the update.
I don't speak out much about the Ladies. So much of what they do, all their competitors do. Only Mao has the jump and Carolines has The body contortions None of these show me great skating as they do great tricks. However, everybody for their own tastes. Sitting through 30 female skaters and be assured you will see double axel, 3x2, and assorted 3s. (Maybe Mao should win). And also see the invevitable Bielman spin, layback spin, and Camel spin. There is also the convoluted spins (Maybe Caroline should win)
There is also the change edge spirals and the ever popular catch foot spiral. (so many win that.)
All these tricks are not done with much Flow between them and their transitions appear to me to be standard. No lady is able to skate like Magnuson or Fleming today (I omitted Kwan so as not to change the subject).
Sitting through 30 Men is somewhat better because, in general, they are more musical, more speedier, and they seem to defy the CoP and [COLOR= A"red"]TAKE RISKS[/COLOR]
Of course, this is what I see in the Events and I think it shameful that the compulsory dances are omitted. I wont go into the acrobatics of Pairs although it is easier to watch once you get into those BIG CONVOLUTED LIFTS with no rapport.
Last edited by Joesitz; 05-28-2010 at 11:30 AM.

subset: commoncrawl


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Nobody told me the flight today was the Retired Couples Returning from Cruises flight. There were twenty-three (TWENTY-THREE) wheelchairs on the jetway when we landed. It was the most peaceful flight ever.
At one point there were clouds and blue sky above us and a solid layer of clouds beneath us as we cut through the sky and I marveled what a genuine miracle flight is.
Then I had to turn off my iPod and it was less miraculous and more let's-just-land-this-dang-thing-already.
BUT. BUT. I am pretty sure I am staying in the cutest hotel room in the history of hotel rooms. Evidence?
Ahem. While I am away, Hot Stuff is home with the kids. I think he's getting bored, because he's been telling me lots of ideas for YA books that he is going to write.
"How about Death stops being Death and decides to go to high school? So one girl is like, 'My boyfriend's a vampire!' and then the other girl says, 'Oh, that's nice. My boyfriend's DEATH.' The ultimate bad boy! Everyone would love it, right?"
Yes. Yes they would. Gosh I miss him. Good thing I have the fish for company.
More later. Come see me if you can. I promise not to make fishy faces if you do.


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Given the way his rehab assignment started at Class A Advanced Salem on Monday, Red Sox starting pitcher may have wished he had waited a little longer.
The Japanese right-hander surrendered leadoff home runs in the first and second innings en route to allowing three earned runs on six hits over four innings of work during the Red Sox's 7-2 loss to Wilmington.
Matsuzaka was scheduled to go either 75 pitches or four innings in his first rehab outing of the year. The 31-year-old underwent Tommy John surgery last June and had last pitched in a Major League game for Boston on May 16. He had only pitched in eight games, going 3-3 with a 5.30 ERA, before the injury to his right elbow.
Blue Rocks second baseman Whit Merrifield took Matsuzaka deep on an 0-2 pitch -- the third pitch he saw -- to lead off Monday's contest. The rehabbing righty allowed two runs on hits by three of the first four batters he faced. He hit 93 mph with his fastball, according to the Lewis Gale Field radar gun.
He gave up another leadoff homer to Wilmington right fielder Geulin Beltre in the second, but settled to retire the next three batters in a row -- two on strikeouts. Matsuzaka allowed just two more hits the rest of the way and set down the final five hitters he saw. He threw 57 pitches on the night, 40 for strikes.
The Red Sox have not announced when or where the former Japanese phenom would be making his next rehab appearance, although it is expected he will be back on the mound by the weekend.
Matsuzaka is required to be back with the big league club 30 days after he begins a Minor League rehab assignment. That would put the right-hander back with Boston at the end of May, unless he suffers a setback with the elbow. Such a timetable would put him ahead of the typical 12- to 15-month rehabilitation period typically associated with Tommy John surgeries.
Royals' No. 12 prospect Jason Adam gave up five hits in five shutout innings for Wilmington. The righty has now given up just one earned run in 22 2/3 innings over his four starts for a 0.40 ERA, best in the Carolina League. Kansas City's No. 5 prospect Cheslor Cuthbert had a career-high four hits, including two doubles, and three RBIs.
Boston's No. 7 prospect Brandon Jacobs went 2-for-5 with a double and two RBIs for Salem.
Today on MiLB.com
Top Stories on MiLB.com
- Braves' Swanson off to flying start in Florida
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- Farm System Rankings: Pitchers (30-21)
- Bucs' Glasnow brings heat in spring debut
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- Toolshed: Sisco next in line for Orioles


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Up to 50% off Made to Measure UV Sunscreen Roller Blinds incl. Delivery (value up to $600)
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- Quality assured, minimum five year warranty on all products.
- Grab made to measure UV sunscreen roller blinds including delivery nationwide from $109, thanks to Kiwiblinds.
- Choose from white, mocha, grey, sandstone, cream, coffee brown, charcoal or black ash colours.
- Easy to follow measuring check and installation guides available via email. Please contact Kiwiblinds when ready for ordering process so basic prep instructions can be provided.
- Fabric has approximately 5% openness for outside visibility and approximately 95% UV Ray blockage.
Grab up to 50% off made to measure UV sunscreen roller blinds, including delivery (alternative address maybe required for rural delivery) from Kiwiblinds. Choose from the following options:
- Pay only $109 for roller blinds that are up to 1000mm wide and up to 1000mm drop.
- Pay only $169 for roller blinds that are between 1001 and 1750mm wide and up to 1500mm drop.
- Pay only $229 for roller blinds that are between 1751 and 2400mm wide and up to 2000mm drop.
- Pay only $299 for roller blinds that are between 2401 and 2650mm wide and up to 2000mm drop.
- Please note: if your sizes fall outside this range please contact Kiwiblinds for a quote.
Kiwiblind's Sunscreen Rollers are the smart and modern solution to negate harsh sun and light intrusion, particularly through the current summer months. The ambient acrylic coated mesh fabric provides crucial UV ray protection for your furniture and decor. The blinds are made to measure and can be delivered in approximately two weeks from completion of simple pre-check and ordering process. Further fabric colour preferences may be available in all four size ranges for an additional surcharge.
Email: firstname.lastname@example.com
Online inquiries welcome 24/7
Business in trade
Opening Hours
Monday - Friday 8.00am - 6.00pm
Saturday 9.00am - 2.00pm
ConditionsValid from Feb 2, 2013
Expires Mar 12, 2013
Offer excludes installation and measuring services. Kiwiblinds can take no responsibility for incorrect measurements and fitting incompatibilities. To assist, we can provide our 'Measure/Pre-Fit - Check Guide' upon request. . Kiwiblinds must be notified within 3 days of receiving blinds in the unlikely event of courier related damage. Alternative delivery address maybe required for some rural areas. No refunds, no exchanges, no cash back. Cannot be used in conjunction with other offers. All fabrics subject to availability and in the unlikely event of fabric stocks running low, backorder process may add some delays to delivery.
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