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Peru is located on the South Pacific coast and ranks among the world's most attractive tourist destinations. Its geographical diversity, archeological, art and cultural heritage, traditions and folklore far exceed its Machu Picchu, Nazca Lines and Lord of Sipan fame.
Beaches of unsurpassed beauty along its almost 3,000 km coastline, impressive mountain landscapes in the Andes, and virgin jungle in the heart of Amazonia are ideal tourist and sport attractions.
In August 1990 Peru opened its economy to free markets through a reform and adjustment program. Results since 1993 include GDP growth, inflation under control (see Table 1), and a strong bargaining position vis a vis multilateral organizations. Present and committed investments during the next five years should lead to stable GDP growth over 4.5% annually, i.e. more than twice the current population growth rate.
Peruvian and foreign investors enjoy equality of treatment before the law in all economic activities (Legislative Decree 662). Foreign investors are assured full currency convertibility to remit abroad their earnings and other royalties from the use and transfer of technology.
Another important government achievement is the current climate of political and social peace. Peru is moving along the path of democracy on the basis of the constitutional principle of active citizen involvement in successive elections. The government has achieved remarkable results in its struggle against violence and Peru now lives in peace with thousands of Peruvians returning to their homelands and promoting regional development.
In this general climate of revitalization, some industries stand out, including tourism. Indicators of this sector's potential are:
1993 | 1994 | 1995 | 1996 | |
Income (US$ million) | 268 | 402 | 520 | 673 |
Average expenditures per person (US$) | 847 | 941 | 980 | 1029 |
Like few other countries, Peru can boast a rich variety of symbols and unique products.
South American ruminants like the vicuna and the alpaca, marinaded fish "cebiche," unique "pisco" grape brandy, Pima cotton and giant grain corn, the highest train crossing and the deepest canyon on earth are all found in Peru.
Everything is there to attract investment and turn tourism into a spectacular growth industry based on quality services focusing on customer satisfaction. In the middle and long term, Peru's tourism industry shows bright prospects for development and economic growth.
Business Presentation
A recreational tourism company, Walking Peru will create opportunities to visit Peru's choice tourist attractions through environmentally friendly activities. Our company will initially focus on passive recreational sports not requiring specific knowledge or physical training. In a subsequent stage, other sports offering will require minimum learning for independent individual practice.
Our window of opportunity is the possibility of showing the world Peru's tourist attractions from a different viewpoint, and creating an easier and fun way to enjoy nature that breaks away from traditional molds.
International and local travel has expanded continuously over the last four years in Peru at an annual average rate of 28.95%. The government's image promotion agency Promperu has estimated growth to continue at the rate shown below:
Tourist flow | 1994 | 1995 | 1996 | 1997 | 1998 | 1999 |
International | 386,000 | 485,000 | 668,000 | 861,000 | 1,110,000 | 1,420,000 |
Domestic | 1,007,000 | 1,347,000 | 1,855,000 | 2,391,000 | 3,055,000 | 3,944,000 |
Our company expects to fill a void in traditional tourism by projecting a corporate image. Planned business lines will result in the Airwalk, Sandwalk, Seawalk, Riverwalk and Snowwalk subproducts designed to closely adapt to their respective environmental settings. Business lines will be managed using the scheme below:
Potential Market
Market penetration in the initial stage will rely on the Airwalk: Hang-glider excursion promoted as natural, safe and fun way to fly.
Target market is made up of local and international tourists from 18 to 50 years. International tourists are expected to comprise 60% of the total audience. Local clients are estimated to come from the departments (states) where the activity will be carried out. Market research shows potential customers willing to pay for the Airwalk excursion are 70% foreigners. Among Peruvian potential clients, 83% belong to the high and middle income levels or a total of approximately 730,000 persons. Only 6.6% of the potential market is included as future clients or 13 daily flights at each sales point. The percentage was determined on the basis of initial Airwalk installed capacity, itself subject to projected initial investment constraints.
Competitive Strategy
Generally based on a differentiated product approach, our strategy places a premium on quality and coverage. It provides clients with required complementary services to give them added comfort and security at the site. For market positioning, our efforts will focus on Cuzco and its three points of sale in Machu Picchu, Pisac and Chinchero. Airwalk's closest competitors are isolated and sporadic excursions with limited services to the clients. Offerings in this group include ultra-light aircraft and delta-wing flights. Introducing the hang glider option requires agreements with tourist promotion agencies, travel companies, and hotels which together will offer a comprehensive package for domestic tour operators selling abroad. These packages are exempt from the 18% sales tax.
Airwalk. Hang-glider excursions, our initial product, are hang-glider or tandem engine flights.4 A professional instructor is provided during the 30 minute flight. Travelers come into close contact with nature, appreciate the tourist sites and can easily resume the flight after the visit. Franz Schilter, a long distance hang-gliding world champion from 1993 to 1995, will develop this line of business.
Pricing Strategy
Based on market research findings, we have set the price at US$40 including all stages from flight preparation to landing. Circuit service pricing will depend on specific circuits chosen by clients.
A promotion plan through television, radio, the Internet and three-fold brochures is detailed in the enclosed advertising campaign. The plan's goal is to create awareness of the company and the product while luring clients through aggressive sales promotions.
The Management Team
Three MBA experts will contribute their managerial skills. T. de la Cruz is an experienced operations design and implementation professional for service companies. P. Neira has experience as legal counsel with adventure sports companies and international competition organization. M. Rios has started and consolidated companies that reached a US$2-3 million turn over after just three years.
Financial Plan
A five year operations projection shows 80.72% returns on investment and net present worth of US$1,520,889 from a launching capital investment of US$763,335 for the company and its first line of business. Projected flow is as follows:
Net Income | 1,813,970 | 2,050,693 | 2,255,090 | 2,428,303 | 2,571,699 |
Total Cost | 1,336,283 | 1,504,692 | 1,701,075 | 1,720,013 | 1,942,034 |
Net Margin | 477,687 | 546,001 | 554,015 | 708,290 | 629,665 |
The tax rate has been set at 30%. Costs include lease payments, overhead, depreciation and amortization.
1 CANATUR: National Tourist Chamber
2 Source: Apoyo Opinion y Mercado S.A.
3 Prepared by Promperu, the government's image building agency.
4 The option between a hang-glider and an engine driven flight depends on altitude. Engines are needed above 2,000 meters of altitude.
Walking Peru | ||
Table of Contents | Appendices | |
0. Executive Summary 1. Product Concept 2. Tourism Industry 3. Market Analysis 4. Competitive Advantages 5. Products 6. Marketing Plan 7. Operations 8. Organization 9. Financial Results |
Perus's tourist calendar Survey and Results Letters Operations schedule Investment budget Capacity expansion Revenues first year Most likely scenario Contingency scenario | |
All information herein is confidential and belongs to Walking Peru. |


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TPM News
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson: Chris Christie Is My 'Buddy'
"I know Gov. Christie. We've met a couple of times," the wrestler-turned-action star said in an interview Friday while promoting his new "Hercules" movie. "But in no way was I associated with what he had going on. . He had his team of people around him who kind of put that together. I saw it. I was like well, I don't have anything to do with it, so now you've got to pull it down."
Christie's office last week removed Johnson from a trailer that it posted to YouTube for a mock summer blockbuster titled "No Pain. No Gain," a riff on the title of Johnson's film "Pain & Gain."
The trailer features clips of Christie warning of an impending budget crisis, along with dramatic music and sound effects. The clip is cut together with scenes of explosions and car chase.
Johnson, 42, spoke at the Republican National Convention in 2000 but says he's "more patriotic than I am political."
"I have good friends who are politicians on both sides," he said in the interview. "Clinton is a good buddy of mine, Obama is a good buddy of mine. A multitude of people who are buddies."
As for whether he some day could follow in the path of past actors-turned-politicians like Ronald Reagan and Arnold Schwarzenegger, Johnson says: "You never say never. I've learned never to say never."
Copyright 2014 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

subset: commoncrawl


text:
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Zobrazení celkem: 13750 Dnes: 6 ★★★
Vítejte Hotel Nuova Barcaccia Peschiera del Garda, Hotel New Four Rivers, Zbrusu nový moderně zařízený Hotel, offering large rooms finished with taste and functionality in mind, is situated near the green morainic hills typical of the Garda area. The Barcaccia is only 1km from the historic center of Peschiera del Garda, close to the famous theme parks by the lake. The hotel offers a wide private parking and a garage with direct access to the rooms, a breakfast room with a large buffet and panoramic view and an inviting summer terrace. Hotel Nuova Barcaccia is the ideal solution for a business trip or a relaxing family getaway. (Hotel Nuova Barcaccia Peschiera del Garda hotels booking).


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- Search:
- Site
- Legislature
- Related
Recommended: | State News: |
Thursday, September 19, 2013
NE - Sex offender restrictions go too far
Labels: ACLU , DayCare , lawSuit , Nebraska , Park , Playground , Residency , School , Unconstitutional
The village board of Alexandria got some valuable advice from the ACLU about its proposed ordinance that would establish new restrictions on where sex offenders could live.
The board ought to take heed. Following the ACLU's recommendations could help the board steer clear of legal travails.
The desire to protect children is understandable. But there's a right way and a wrong way to go about it. The legal restrictions the board is considering go too far.
The board last week gave first-round approval to the ordinance. Two more board votes -- scheduled for Oct. 3 and Nov. 13 -- are necessary before the ordinance will take effect.
The proposed law for the south-central Nebraska town with a population of 177 would forbid registered sex offenders from living within 500 feet of schools, village -owned and -maintained parks, licensed child care centers and any school bus that stops on village property. The ordinance would fine landlords who rent to sex offenders $500 per day.
As the ACLU pointed out, "The difficulty with the draft is that it goes beyond what state law permits and has been pre-empted by existing statutes -- and therefore violates several sections of the Nebraska state Constitution and the United States Constitution."
The ACLU cited three problems with the law. First, the ordinance would restrict sex offenders from living near playgrounds and school bus stops. State law sets restrictions only for schools. Second, the ACLU said, the board must adopt the grandfather clause in state law, not set a new date. Lastly, by setting a penalty for landlords who rent to sex offenders, the ordinance creates a new crime, which is beyond the board's authority.
The board drafted Ordinance 147 at the request of a mother who was concerned about raising her children near registered sex offenders. One offender lives across the alley from her backyard. A second sexual offender with an adjacent backyard moved away after the mother went to the village board.
A few years ago, there was something of a fad among local governments to establish residency restrictions for sex offenders.
Fortunately, the Legislature stepped in to set statewide standards. Otherwise, Nebraska would have ended up with a patchwork of local laws that would have been confusing and unevenly enforced.
For the Alexandria village board to spend more time debating the proposed restrictions would just be wasted effort. If people in Alexandria, or any other town in Nebraska, want tighter restrictions, they need to go to the Legislature. The village board would just be wasting its time.
3 comments :
I have said this before, and I will say this again: "let's see, I will just wait at the 510 foot mark to be safe from the zone restriction and I will just wait for ____ to go by and then. . . . " GET IT?
- Thursday, September 19, 2013 6:46:00 PM
You might want to stay 750 feet or a 1000 feet away just to be sure. It's always unclear if distance is measured from the center point, the edge of the property, or from the building. It gets more complicated if the distance measured is based on walking distance rather than just drawing a circle around the restricted area on a map. What happens if a restricted area is on the boarder of another town that doesn't have the restrictions and the offender free zone extends into the neighboring town? It would really be fascinating to see just how much of the town would be off limits under the new law and even the existing law.
- Thursday, September 19, 2013 11:47:00 PM
the do it by the edge of the property. and cops dont scour the area measuring in their minds how far every offender is. the idea is to allow the police to arrest a child molester if that operson is being suspicios, or loitering, or whatever. The law is a good law.
- Wednesday, September 25, 2013 9:40:00 PM


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Google may finally be ready to call it quits in China following a protracted war of words with the nation's government over censorship and cybersecurity.
The Bloomberg news service, citing a report by Shanghai-based China Business News, said Google "may announce" an April 10 pullout as soon as next week on March 22. That's in keeping with recent comments by Eric Schmidt, Google's CEO, who in recent weeks has said several times that Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) expects to announce a decision "soon" on its China operations.
The issue exploded in January when Google's head legal counsel, David Drummond, wrote in a blog post that the company planned to stop abiding by the Chinese government's censorship restrictions on search results for its Google.cn search engine site. At the same time, Google also said it, and dozens of other U.S. corporations had been subject to various unauthorized attempts to hack its network and some of its users' accounts.
Google also said its investigation indicated the attacks, which have become known as "Operation Aurora," originated in China, possibly with the complicity of the government there, a charge Chinese officials hotly denied.
McAfee Labs later said it identified a zero-day
Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) confirmed in its annual filing to the Securities and Exchange Commission that a recent and "sophisticated [cyber attack] incident occurred in January 2010 around the same time as the recently publicized security incident reported by Google." But Intel also said the attack didn't result in any loss of intellectual property or damage to its network.
Google claimed the attack, which included attempts to hack the Gmail accounts of human rights advocates in China, was unsuccessful.
The stakes are high for Google because a decision to leave China would mean leaving behind a country with over a billion people and rapidly growing Internet adoption.
Google said it had no comment on the China Business News report.
Earlier reports indicate part of Google's negotiating stance with the government is to see what it can salvage in the country if it decides to shut down Google.cn. For example, Google and its partners are ramping up mobile services and devices based on the company's Android software and may want to negotiate assurance the government will let those efforts continue even if Google.cn closes.
David Needle is the West Coast bureau chief at InternetNews.com, the news service of Internet.com, the network for technology professionals. Security, censorship policy in focus


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Coordinated control of profile and shape in hot strip finishing mills with nonlinear dynamics
Bulut, B. and Katebi, M.R. and Grimble, M.J. (2002) Coordinated control of profile and shape in hot strip finishing mills with nonlinear dynamics. IEE Proceedings Control Theory and Applications, 149 (5). pp. 471-480. ISSN 1350-2379
Full text not available in this repository. (Request a copy from the Strathclyde author)Abstract
A method of modelling and controlling profile and flatness in hot strip tandem rolling mills is described. The method for controlling the profile is based on explicit manipulation of the strip thickness across its width. The flatness is controlled by appropriately distributing and constraining the profile actuators, so that defects do not occur. Model-based predictive control is employed to generate the control signal for each stand and to co-ordinate the stands for optimal profile and shape control. Simulation results are presented to demonstrate the performance of the proposed co-ordinated control scheme.
Item type: | Article |
ID code: | 3502 |
Keywords: | control systems, electrical systems, nonlinear dynamics, Electrical engineering. Electronics Nuclear engineering, Instrumentation, Control and Systems Engineering, Electrical and Electronic Engineering |
Subjects: | Technology > Electrical engineering. Electronics Nuclear engineering |
Department: | Faculty of Engineering > Electronic and Electrical Engineering |
Depositing user: | Strathprints Administrator |
Date Deposited: | 19 Jun 2007 |
Last modified: | 22 Mar 2017 09:07 |
URI: | http://strathprints.strath.ac.uk/id/eprint/3502 |
Export data: |


text: New Navigation! Mike D., Team Titleist Manager Team Titleist Staff June 11, 2013 By Mike D., Team Titleist Manager Hi Team Titleist, I know it's U.S. Open week but we're pretty excited for the launch of our new navigation across Titleist.com and Team Titleist. Hopefully you've noticed that we've enhanced the top-level navigation and introduced quick links/secondary navigation to make it even easier to get right to the content you're looking for. We hope you like the update and as always, thanks for your feedback! Quote Reply


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Pie Galore at Random Order Coffeehouse (Portland, OR)
Days before our trip to Portland, Wandering Chopsticks found an article from Travel+Leisure for the top ten pies in the US, listing Portland's Random Order Coffeehouse for their vanilla salted caramel apple pie. We just had to go.
Random Order is a small coffee shop on cute Alberta street, very much like a neighborhood joint. On our first visit after "hiking" the waterfalls, we got three slices of pie and some tea.
Of course, we had to get their award winning vanilla salted caramel apple pie. The filling is caramel apple and the crust is a vanilla sugar-salted crust.
I'm not a huge apple pie fan, but I have to say this was very good, especially the flaky crust. Random Order makes pretty much everything from scratch, including their crust, cream, and whipped cream.
The Flirty Berry was even better for me, filled with blueberries and blackberries.
Our favorite though was the banana cream pie.
We loved the silky cream, the banana:cream ratio, and the crust. Wandering Chopsticks says this was the best banana cream pie she's ever had. That's why we had to go back the day before we left Portland, joined by WC's cousin and Blazing Hot Wok.
Earl Grey tea to wash things down. |
They have three savory pies but they were out of the chicken pot pie this time, so we got the Catalan Vegetable pie and the Chipotle Pork pie.
Both were great, nicely warmed up in the oven so the crust is nice and flaky. I preferred the hearty vegetable pie filled with sweet potato, onion, and other root vegetables.
So that was "lunch" ... and then came desserts.
I had my eye on the brandied peach pie and this time I decided to try their whipped cream.
I wasn't disappointed. WC said the brandy was strong, but I guess I prefer it that way.
The coconut cream pie was Blazing Hot Wok's favorite. The chocolate cream pie I can pass on – chocolate is better in cakes!
Another good one: Kentucky Bourbon Pecan Pie
The Shaker Lemon pie was filled with candied lemon rinds, but there was no bitterness to it. I really enjoyed this too.
So, after tasting almost everything they had (yes we got the banana cream pie again), I can't wait to go back. I'm stopping here on all my visits to Portland from now on! Get on their free wifi, sip tea, eat a slice of pie (or four). Perfect afternoon.
Random Order Coffeehouse and Bakery
1800 NE Alberta St
Portland, OR 97211
(971) 340-6995


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WOKE UP WITH RED SPOTS !!Aug 16, 2009 Hi, I woke up today with red spots all over my body! Legs, chest, stomach...They are "low relief", they dont itch or anything, but Im worried ! Also, I noticed that when I take a cold bath they appear more, then they "hide" a little bit afterwards. Im HIV for one year, CD4 428, viral load 90,000 Im sad about these red spots all over my body. |
Response from Dr. HolodniyVery difficult to determine without physically seeing them what this could be. You need to have your doctor check you out. | ||||||||||
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ST. LOUIS- The Missouri Baptist men's tennis squad defeated Lindenwood-Belleville on Wednesday, 7-2. The Spartans completed the season sweep over the Lynx, as they defeated Lindenwood-Belleville on March 8.
The Spartans won all three doubles matches, while the top three singles players all recorded victories.
No. 1 Drew Morris beat Edwardo Garcia in straight sets, 7-5, 6-3 and also won in doubles, when he teamed up with Mike Rubinelli. The pair topped Garcia and Dylan Prosser, 8-4. No. 2 Rubinelli topped Prosser in straight sets in singles, 6-2, 6-0.
No. 3 Conner Stevenson took straight sets over Quoc Nyuyen, 6-0, 6-1. No. 4 Tanner Morris fell to Ryan Garside in straight sets, 6-3, 6-0. Morris redeemed himself with Stevenson in doubles by taking down Asad Shakoov and Christian Hamilton, 8-2.
No. 6 Kirk Tass gave the Spartans its final singles victory with a straight set victory over Christian Hamilton, 7-5, 6-3.
Cole Stevenson and Kirk Tass nearly shut out Ryan Garside and Rodney Atwaters in doubles, as they recorded an 8-1 victory.
Missouri Baptist improved to 3-7-1 with the win and will travel to Elsah, Ill. to take on Principia College on April 20 at 10 AM.
1 Drew Morris and Mike Rubinelli MBU defeated Edwardo Garcia and Dylan Posser LB 8-4
2 Conner Stevenson and Tanner Morris MBU defeated Asad Shakoov and Christian Hamilton LB 8-2
3 Cole Stevenson and Kirk Tass MBU defeated Ryan Garside and Rodney Atwaters LB 8-1
1 Drew Morris MBU defeated Edwardo Garcia LB 7-5 6-3
2 Mike Rubinelli MBU defeated Dylan Prosser 6-2 6-0
3 Conner Stevenson MBU defeated Quoc Nyuyen LB 6-0 6-1
4 Ryan Garside LB defeated Tanner Morris MBU 6-3 6-0
5 Asad Shakoov LB defeated Tyler Cissell MBU 6-3 6-4
6 Kirk Tass MBU defeated Christian Hamilton LB 7-5 6-3


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Having trouble installing Max 6.0.8 on Windows – everytime i attempt install I get a "The older version of Max 6.0.8 cannot be removed. Contact Your Technical Support Group" error.
I've deleted the old Max 6 folder entirely, but still getting this error message when i run the installer.
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Company Details
YellowPagesUSA.com Summary
Information about YellowPagesUSA.com was first submitted to Scambook on Feb 06, 2014. Since then the page has accumulated 46 consumer complaints. On average users reported $1356.71 of damages. Scambook's investigation team reached out to this company a total of 3 times, Scambook Investigators last contacted them on Nov 15, 2012.
Company Information
- Address:
- 225 Franklin Street
- 26th Floor
- Boston MA 02110
- Website:http://www.yellow-page-usa.com
- Phone:(843) 282-0301, (917) 284-9276, (866) 214-5273, (866) 662-0022
- Email:
- Additional Employees:
- Petrenko Vladimir Sergeyevich Principal
- Marshall Carter Chairman of the Board
- Outdated Info? Add company information suggestion
- This Company Page started on February 6th, 2014.
- Is This Your Business?
Company Rating
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Complaints Unresolved
- Unresolved Reported Damage $62,408.79
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Do you know God? There is a vast difference between knowing about God and knowing God. In Pursuing a Deeper Faith, Dr. Charles Stanley shares God's invitation to grow in a heart relationship with Him, to hear His voice speaking to your spirit , and to feel a deep assurance that you are locked into a forever relationship that cannot be severed.
Charles Stanley study guides sold to date: Over 1 million units
Contributor(s) | Dr. Charles F. Stanley |
About the Contributor(s) | Dr. Charles F. Stanley Dr. Charles Stanley is senior pastor of First Baptist Church in Atlanta. He is the founder and president of InTouch® Ministries. His bestselling books include The Source of My Strength and How to Listen to God. |
Release Date | May 31, 2011 |
Weight (lbs) | 0.3800 |
Height | 8.8 |
Width | 5.9 |
Length | 128 |
Length Unit | Pages |
Publisher | Thomas Nelson |
Price | $9.99 |
Who It's For | Men, Pastor, Teen Boy 13-17, Teen Girl 13-17, Women |
Series | Life Principles Study Series |
Format | Paperback |
Language | English |
You may also be interested in the following product(s)
The Desert Experience
$12.99 -
In Step With God
$14.99 -
I Lift Up My Soul
$19.99 -
How to Reach Your Full Potential for God


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Pesticides and beneficial organisms
Keywords |
Pesticides, natural enemies, beneficial organisms, selectivity, side-effects, biological control, IPM (integrated pest management) |
Convenor | SMAGGHE Guy |
Liaison-Officer | VOGT Heidrun |
Structure |
The group was founded in 1974.
Aim |
The goal of the WG is to identify selective pesticides for beneficial arthropods and to promote their use, in order to enhance biological control in plant protection and reduce impact of pesticides on non-target organisms. To achieve this the WG offers through its meetings and sub-working groups a forum for exchange of information and stimulates contacts and cooperation between scientists, regulatory authorities and industry. |
Activities |
The WG
Achievements |
Since 1980, standard guidelines to test the side-effects of pesticides on natural enemies, rearing methods for beneficial arthropods, comparison of results of laboratory, semi-field, field experiments and results of the joint programs to test the side-effects of pesticides on beneficial organisms have been published in the IOBC wprs Bulletin, the EPPO Bulletin, and various international scientific journals (see below). The methods developed by the group have been accepted by the EU for use in the registration of pesticides. Validated and ring-tested methods have been published in 2000 (see below). The results of testing the side-effects of about 140 pesticides on 20 beneficial organisms within the Joint Pesticide Testing Programs are being used world-wide by the extension services. All side-effect results of the WG have been compiled and are available here: IP & IPM, IOBC IP Tool Box ( = Toolbox: Selectivity of pesticides)
1988-1999: Publications (pdf)
Meeting 2011, 08-11 November, Marbella, Spain. Meeting 2009, 07-09 October, Dubrovnik, Croatia. Meeting 2007, 10-12 October, Berlin, Germany. Download: Abstracts (pdf) |


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©2012 Mardi Speth • All Rights Reserved • Watercolour and Ink |
I shoulda paid closer attention to Poodle's big idea, but I was simply riveted to a juicy adventure story when she said something about pink tips.
©2012 Mardi Speth • All Rights Reserved • Watercolour and Ink |
so nice to see the P & B adventures start up again after the fall hibernation...
I think the rather smart violet you chose for the environment of the Crown and Glory was dead on! An intended regality that veers over into the tacky due to it's ubiquity...
~Just what that poodle would do. (one assumes her home is doubly purplized).
And I can believe that's as far as Peet would dare go into this establishment (he has his reputation to consider). I wonder if he was asked to wait outside, or if he was just making sure things were not getting outa hand in there?
His expression is perfect.


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Sky Walking | [ Sizes: Orig | Large | Med | Small | Thumb ] | |
Climbers make their way back across the Knife Edge on their descent from Capitol Peak. No, none of us were roped. Everybody but me "tight-roped" the ridge. Bad idea, you can see that if you fall, you are going to fall a long way before something stops you. | Capitol Peak (Mountain/Rock) Gareth's Image Gallery Exposed Ridges (Album) Adrenaline discharge (Album) Image Data Image Type(s): Alpine Climbing |


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If your new to the online world you're probably wondering how to make money with a blog. The purpose of this blog post is to show you how to make money with a blog for beginners and give you some tips as a beginner blogger.
There are many ways to make money online, but blogging is like taking it all and wrapping it all up in a pretty bow. Think of your blog like your home online… or like a bunch of flyers that you get to post up on the internet that never get taken down. If you do it right, blogging is a tool that will work over and over for you and you can start making that "sleep money" that you wondered was ever real. (it is!)
I remember back in 2011 I started my first blog. I started on a free blogging platform and I wanted to make a coupon site and help women save money. I didn't really know where to start so I just started somewhere. My first year blogging I made a whole $. 50. I quickly came to the realization that I had to get a LOT of women printing coupons if I was going to make that a full time thing. I had no idea what to look for when looking for commissions and affiliate programs. No clue about list building and SEO. I only knew I was determined, and I was going to learn how to make money with a blog no matter what.
First let me share with you specific ways to start making money with a blog. There are many many ways to make money on your blog. I want to specifically focus on making money with a blog for the beginner. Like with anything.. making money with your blog will take hard work and dedication. Many blog networks require that you have a blog for 3 months or more and/or up to 20 blog posts written. Be patient and don't give up. Create new content consistently and you'll start feeling the momentum from your post. Honestly, blogging can take time. But the foundation it builds for an online business that is lasting is worth it.
And if you align yourself with the right products/systems and people.. you'd be surprised at how much money you really can make from blogging.
How to make money with a blog?
There are a few ways you can make money with a blog.
You can make your own products or service:
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Watch very closely in this Video Presentation by clicking here
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Anne Arundel Medical Center (AAMC), a regional health system headquartered in Annapolis, Md., serves an area of more than one million people. Founded in 1902, AAMC includes a not-for-profit hospital, a medical group, imaging services, a substance use trea ... more
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text: We go to Cafe Leon every time we are in Kalkan for their Turkish special dinner on Tuesday nights, and we go for drinks too because the staff - Lev, Claire and Jane are so nice. It's also nice to see Dolly the lab! We had a great mixed meze starter, and a stew for the main which was also... More


text:
Olive Garden Seafood Portofino Sauce
Be the first to review
Recipe by Kit^..^ty Of Canada
I use shrimp and scallops only. I am unable to obtain crawfish and do not care for mussels. I also use this sauce with chicken & veal. Dh says this tastes like Olive Garden's Seafood Portofino.
See Discussion:
Ingredients Nutrition
Portofino Sauce
- 113.39 g butter
- 113.39 g yellow onions, 1/4-inch dice
- 113.39 g rue
- 16 fluid ounce milk
- 473.19 ml heavy cream
- 56.69 g shrimp stock
- 1 fluid ounce Old Bay Seasoning
- 16 fluid ounce white wine
- 42.52 g garlic paste
Seafood Portofino
- 1 fluid ounce olive oil
- 56.69 g mushrooms
- 170.09 g linguine, precooked (hot)
- 0.25 ml fresh parsley
- 113.39 g shrimp
- 56.69 g crawfish
- 56.69 g scallops
- 6 mussels
- Make the roux (heat vegetable oil on medium/high, add flour, stir continuously until oil flour mixture browns).
- If you see black flecks in roux it is burnt & you must start over.
- The amount of oil I used was equal to the amount of roux required by the recipe.
- For instance, the original recipe calls for 4 oz of roux.
- So 8 tbsp oil (I use butter) and 8 tbsp white flour.
- Set aside.
- Remaining roux freezes beautifully.
- Make shrimp stock.
- If you are using head on shrimp, set aside the heads and shells and boil with just enough water to cover.
- After boiling 10mins. Discard heads and shells and use the remaining shrimp stock in the amount required by the recipe.
- Melt Butter on medium heat.
- Add diced onion and garlic puree cover but stir occasionally.
- After diced onions are sauteed add white wine and uncover.
- Turn up heat to high until boiling then back down to medium.
- Cook 5 minutes on medium.
- Now stir in roux and shrimp stock and Old Bay Seasoning. Cook 3 minutes.
- Now add milk and heavy cream.
- Turn heat on high just until mixture starts to boil.
- Turn on medium/low, cover stirring occasionally for 5 minutes.
- After 5 minutes, the Sauce is ready. I turned heat to low while I prepared the seafood.
- Heat oil in saute pan over medium flame.
- Put mushrooms in cook 30 seconds.
- Add mussels and cook 30 seconds.
- Add seafood.
- Cook 30 seconds.
- Flip cook 15 seconds more.
- Add portofino sauce 3oz.
- cook until bubbling throughout.
- Move mushrooms and seafood to one side of pan.
- Add linguine to other side.
- Using tongs, coat pasta with sauce. (mussels should be open).


text:
Charge environments around phosphorylation sites in proteins
- James Kitchen1,
- Rebecca E Saunders1, 2 and
- Jim Warwicker1Email author
© Kitchen et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd. 2008
Received: 26 November 2007
Accepted: 25 March 2008
Published: 25 March 2008
Phosphorylation is a central feature in many biological processes. Structural analyses have identified the importance of charge-charge interactions, for example mediating phosphorylation-driven allosteric change and protein binding to phosphopeptides. Here, we examine computationally the prevalence of charge stabilisation around phosphorylated sites in the structural database, through comparison with locations that are not phosphorylated in the same structures.
A significant fraction of phosphorylated sites appear to be electrostatically stabilised, largely through interaction with sidechains. Some examples of stabilisation across a subunit interface are evident from calculations with biological units. When considering the immediately surrounding environment, in many cases favourable interactions are only apparent after conformational change that accompanies phosphorylation. A simple calculation of potential interactions at longer-range, applied to non-phosphorylated structures, recovers the separation exhibited by phosphorylated structures. In a study of sites in the Phospho.ELM dataset, for which structural annotation is provided by non-phosphorylated proteins, there is little separation of the known phospho-acceptor sites relative to background, even using the wider interaction radius. However, there are differences in the distributions of patch polarity for acceptor and background sites in the Phospho.ELM dataset.
In this study, an easy to implement procedure is developed that could contribute to the identification of phospho-acceptor sites associated with charge-charge interactions and conformational change. Since the method gives information about potential anchoring interactions subsequent to phosphorylation, it could be combined with simulations that probe conformational change. Our analysis of the Phospho.ELM dataset also shows evidence for mediation of phosphorylation effects through (i) conformational change associated with making a solvent inaccessible phospho-acceptor site accessible, and (ii) modulation of protein-protein interactions.
The phosphoproteome is a window into key biological processes, such as gene expression and cell growth, that are mediated by kinase and phosphatase activities [1]. There is widespread interest in mediators of phosphorylation as therapeutic targets [2]. Studies of specific phosphorylation pathways are being supplemented with measurements from the developing field of phosphoproteomics [3, 4], indicating that around one third of proteins may be phosphorylated in a given cellular snapshot [5]. A number of general databases are being developed to collate these data, such as Phospho.ELM (originally PhosphoBase) [6], the Phosphorylation Site Database [7], and PhosphoSite [8]. Some resources are linked to certain streams of data, such as plant phosphorylation (PlantsP [9]) and specific phosphoproteome experiments (Phosida [10]). Other databases, such as dbPTM [11], collect phosphorylations along with other post-translational modifications.
Phosphorylation site databases serve as a reference for construction of methods aimed at sequence-based prediction of phosphorylation sites. A range of machine-learning techniques have been used, including neural networks (NetPhos [12, 13]), hidden Markov models (KinasePhos 1.0 [14, 15]), support vector machines (PredPhospho and KinasePhos 2.0 [16–18]), Bayesian decision theory (PPSP [19]), and other forms of sequence profile analysis (Scansite 2.0, Phosite, GPS [20–22]). Such predictors perform particularly well when kinase specificities are taken into account [18], or when species-dependence is included [12]. Experimental studies of phosphorylation in yeast are consistent with strong preferences of kinases for specific substrates, but also indicate that predictions based on phosphorylation site patterns can lead to substantial over-prediction, and the conclusion that many sequences may not be accessible and that other regions may be involved in substrate recognition [23]. The current set of phosphorylation site databases and prediction servers has been recently reviewed [24].
Whilst it is clear that amino acid sequence and kinase-specific features play key roles in many phosphorylations, a number of studies have also looked at 3D structural encoding of features around phosphorylation sites. Local structure around phosphorylated and non-phosphorylated sites was used, in the form of contact maps, to train a neural network [13]. An algorithm to predict local structural segments from sequence has been used to enhance prediction accuracy for phosphorylation sites [25]. A database of 3D structures of protein phosphorylation sites has been developed, including structural annotation of the Phospho.ELM database (Phospho3D [26]). It has been noticed that the amino acid sequence properties around phosphorylation sites are similar to those of intrinsically disordered protein regions, and this information used to construct a prediction algorithm, DISPHOS [27]. Further work has demonstrated that intrinsic disorder is a characteristic of partners that bind 14-3-3 proteins [28], and that it may be a general feature of linear motifs that determine protein-protein interactions [29]. A survey of proteins for which structures are known in the phosphorylated and non-phosphorylated forms found that the effect of phosphorylation is mediated in many of these cases by conformational change, and by alteration of interfacial properties in some others [30].
Charge interactions have been investigated around subsets of phosphorylation sites, in phosphopeptide binding systems [31], at interfaces mediated by phosphorylated sites in general [32], and around activation loops containing phosphorylation sites [33, 34]. In all of these cases, favourable charge-charge interactions were identified at the phosphorylated sites. For the phosphopeptide binding systems this is the major feature in a prediction tool [31], whilst complementary charge interactions drive the successful modelling of changes in activation loop conformation [34].
Model peptide studies have shown that phosphorylation stabilises α-helix formation when located at the amino terminus [35], consistent with calculations and the location of phosphate or sulphate ions in crystal structures [36]. Other work has highlighted the strength of non-covalent interactions that can be mediated by phosphorylated groups, salt-bridging in a model peptide [37], or mediating protein-protein interactions [38]. Calculations have been used to estimate the relative strengths of hydrogen bonds that involve phosphorylated amino acid sidechains [39]. We have previously used Finite Difference Poisson-Boltzmann (FDPB) calculations of charge interactions in studies of peptide phosphorylation [35]. The current study uses phosphorylated proteins in the structural database to address the question of whether phosphorylation sites can be distinguished in terms of charge interactions, relative to their non-phosphorylated counterparts within the same proteins. We find a subset of stabilised phosphorylated sites, many of which are within kinases, and for which the favourable interaction is derived largely from interactions with basic sidechains. When studied in the context protein structures that are not phosphorylated at these sites, an indication of favourable interactions (and conformational change) can be recovered by analysing the charge environment beyond the nearest neighbours. In an extension to phosphorylation sites from the Phospho.ELM database [6] that can be structurally annotated, we find that these do not have as large a signal indicative of conformational change as those from the structural database. On the other hand, the Phospho.ELM sites are more buried on average than the set derived from phosphorylated protein structures. There is also an interesting difference in the distributions of patch polarity around Phospho.ELM sites and background sites.
Results and discussion
Phosphorylated proteins in the structural database
Many of the structures studied show little stabilisation, or show destabilisation, in our estimate of charge-charge interactions. In a few instances, small overall interaction results from near cancelling of stabilising and destabilising contributions, as at the phosphorylated active site of phosphoglucomutase, 1vkl [48], with opposing contributions from a metal ion and its ligands. In a larger number of cases, the surrounding charge interactions are generally small. Some of these at least may be indicative of phosphorylation mediating differences in the formation of higher order structures or complexes that are not included in the current analysis. Examples are the surface properties and fibre formation in pilin, 2pil [49], and the phosphorylation of nucleotide-binding domain 1 and potential interactions with other components of the cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator, 1r0z [50]. As more structures become available for complexes, and using comparative models built on protein-protein interaction templates [51], a more thorough study of the extent to which phosphorylation mediates interfacial properties will be possible.
For the PDB set, non-redundant at 25% sequence identity, and using a threshold interaction of -6 kJ/mole, the current method gives (sensitivity, specificity) of (0.48, 0.90), compared with (0.52, 0.67) for NetPhos [13] and (0.65, 0.79) for DISPHOS [27], using the default thresholds.
Phosphorylation sites in Phospho.ELM
Solvent accessibility of phosphorylation sites could be an important factor, although conformational change will again play a role. Figure 5b shows that phosphorylated sites in the PDB set that is non-redundant at 25% sequence identity, are on average more accessible than the control set. Interestingly, phosphorylated sites from the structurally annotated Phospho.ELM set appear to be more buried, on average, than do those from the 25% PDB set. Both sets of calculations displayed in Figure 5b were made with single protein chains, rather than biological units, and should therefore be comparable.
Phosphorylated and non-phosphorylated structures
Potential peaks around phospho-acceptor sites
We have studied the charge environments around phospho-acceptor sites in phosphorylated and non-phosphorylated protein structures, and extended the study to structurally annotated sites in Phospho.ELM. Our results show that only a subset of phosphorylated structures (around a third in our analysis of the PDB) appear to be making use of particularly favourable charge interactions at the site of phosphorylation, when considered in the context of biological unit. Several of these examples are protein kinases with phosphorylated activation loops. When non-phosphorylated structures are studied, much of the signal of excess favourable charge interactions relative to a control set is lost, consistent with a degree of conformational change (e.g. the activation loop of protein kinases). We introduce a simple algorithm, using the charge/electrostatic potential neighbourhood, to recover the signal for non-phosphorylated structures. This method has the potential to aid studies of conformational change associated with phosphorylation, since it predicts the target area for phosphate binding. The result is consistent with molecular simulations in which charge interaction was seen to be the key factor in establishing an anchor point for phosphorylated residues [34].
For a set of phosphorylated sites structurally annotated from Phospho.ELM, we find little signal for charge stabilisation around phospho-acceptor sites, even when the neighbourhood algorithm is applied. This result suggests that any phosphorylation-induced conformational change is relatively complex or that the effects of phosphorylation are mediated in other ways, for many of the Phospho.ELM proteins. We find indirect evidence in both of these directions. The Phospho.ELM set has a tendency towards buried sites (in non-phosphorylated forms), possibly indicative of substantial conformational change. A preliminary analysis of patch surface polarity in the Phospho.ELM set shows a different distribution for phos sites relative to non-phos sites, suggesting that complexation could play a role i.e. where phosphorylation alters the propensity for forming an interface.
Further work will study phosphorylation sites in the context of protein-protein interaction databases (e.g. PIBASE, [56]). There are also issues of detailed modelling, such as inclusion of phosphate group torsion angles, emphasising phosphate interactions with mainchain groups, and adding Asp and His sidechains as acceptors. Our longer term aims are to probe molecular mechanisms by which phosphorylation mediates biological effects, and improve predictive algorithms that are based on sequence properties, using for example kinase specificity or disorder [12, 27]. The issue of disorder is of particular interest since our structural annotation of Phospho.ELM loses many phosphorylated sites as unstructured regions within known folds. It will be of interest to extend our patch algorithm to such examples, given that we also find examples in the structural database where sites that are ordered when phosphorylated, are unstructured when non-phosphorylated.
PDB datasets
Structures containing as ligand type Sep, Tpo or Ptr representing phosphoserine, phosphothreonine and phosphotyrosine respectively, were identified in the PDB [40]. Single chains were selected to remove redundant copies of phosphorylated sites within a coordinate file. Redundancy between PDB sets was investigated using the PISCES server [41], selecting crystal structures with a minimum polypeptide length of 40 amino acids, and resolution better than 3.0 Å. We carried through sets of phosphorylation sites at 100%, 90% and 25% non-redundancy, based on sequence identity. These sets represent the complete phosphorylation data (100%), removal of near-identical copies (90%), and removal of copies that are clearly homologous (25%). This scheme is shown in Figure 1, with the numbers of phosphorylated sites retrieved. In addition to the phosphorylated sites, other Ser, Thr and Tyr residues in the same proteins constituted a non-phosphorylated control set, which was submitted to the same calculations. Generally for any set of PDB files containing phosphorylated sites, the control set was derived from that set of proteins, although it is possible that some of these other sites could be phosphorylated under different conditions. For calculations with biological units, the relevant coordinate files were obtained from the PDB.
An additional dataset was formed by searching for non-phosphorylated structures that are related PDB entries to the phosphorylated structures, with the caveat that the site of phosphorylation should be ordered in both cases. This dataset was derived from the 90% sequence identity culled set of phosphorylated coordinate files.
Phospho.ELM dataset
Phosphorylation sites from the Phospho.ELM database were also studied, using version 5.0, released May 2006 [6]. The approximately 7000 instances of phosphorylated serine, threonine and tyrosine were reduced to just 118 PDB files, with our structural annotation procedure.
Structural annotation of sequences
The UNIPROT protein sequence database was used to underpin the structural annotation process [57]. Phosphoprotein accession numbers from Phospho.ELM were matched to UNIPROT, and then to 3D structures where available. Phosphopeptide sequences extracted from Phospho.ELM were matched to the amino acid sequence present in the coordinate section of the PDB file for verification. Where a phosphopeptide sequence matches to more than one PDB file, the first match was used.
Charge calculations
Charge interactions are compared at phosphorylated and non-phosphorylated Ser, Thr, Tyr sites. This is achieved in a model where a notional -2e charge is placed on the OG atom of Ser, OG1 of Thr and OH of Tyr. For this purpose, the phosphate group is removed from any phosphorylated residue, allowing direct comparison with non-phosphorylated residues. There are number of approximations in this process, notably the lack of phosphate group modelling and the -2e charge. The pKas of phosphorylated sidechains for the -1e to -2e transition suggest that the -2e state will predominate at neutral pH [35]. Nevertheless, our focus is on comparison of phosphorylated and non-phosphorylated residues, rather than absolute values. The same rationale underlies the omission of a phosphate group model. To maintain direct comparisons, without removing phosphates, these groups would need to be modelled on non-phosphorylated residues, and results averaged over (or selected from) torsional variation.
The Debye-Hückel (DH) model for charge-charge interactions is used, with a relative dielectric (78.4) corresponding to water, and an ionic strength of 0.15 Molar. This model does not account for charge interactions with the less polarisable protein, but it generally works well for charge-charge interactions at a protein surface [58], which are the current target. We compared the DH model with Finite Difference Poisson-Boltzmann calculations of charge-charge interactions. The relative distributions of charge interaction energies for phosphorylated and non-phosporylated sites were similar to those for the DH model (not shown).
Distributions are displayed as histograms of interaction energy, summed over all phosphorylated (phos) or non-phosphorylated (non-phos) residues in the coordinate files of a dataset. Percentages are plotted, facilitating comparison of the unequal-sized datasets. The Mann-Whitney U test is applied to the series of interaction values for each phos and non-phos set. The probability of occurrence of these series, if there is no difference in the underlying distributions, is given for each phos/non-phos plot. A significant difference is generally inferred at the 5% (p < 0.05) level.
Solvent accessibility and burial depth
Solvent accessibility was calculated for phospho-acceptor atoms, OG (Ser), OG1 (Thr), OH (Tyr), using an in-house program, and the data were binned for histogram display. Burial depth from the exterior solvent surface was calculated with a grid-based algorithm. Molecule points are assigned on the grid for regions that are not solvent accessible. Then starting from outside of the molecule, a grid of accessibility to the exterior solvent is constructed. The burial distance (to the exterior surface) is calculated between each atom and the nearest exterior accessible grid point. A value of around 2 Å represents exterior surface located, taking into account the united atom van der Waals radius set.
Polarity of surface patches in the Phospho.ELM dataset
The surface polarity around Ser, Thr and Tyr residues was calculated for amino acids within a 10 Å radius (based on Cα atoms), and with ASA > 5 Å2. Distributions of non-polar percentage (i.e. 100 × non-polar area/total area) were compared between phos and non-phos sites.
Availability and requirements
Project name: Phospatch
Project home page: http://www.bioinf.manchester.ac.uk/phospatch/
The software used in this study is also available for download from: http://personalpages.manchester.ac.uk/staff/j.warwicker/resources.html
Operating system(s): Linux
Programming language: Perl, Fortran
License: GNU GPL
No additional restrictions for non-academic users.
Finite Difference Poisson-Boltzmann
Protein Data Bank
Accessible Surface Area
Adenosine 5'-triphosphate
Guanosine 5'-triphosphate
This work was funded by a UK BBSRC studentship to JK. We thank Mr Stephen Hall and Dr Nick Gresham for technical support.
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This is a brief excerpt from a wide-ranging discussion Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough had with Euro Pacific Capital CEO Peter Schiff as part of HedgeyeTV's "Real Conversations" series. While Schiff advocates policy that would actually be bad for gold, he has no faith that the government will do the right thing. The full interview runs Thursday.
Takeaway: 83% expect it to be BELOW 3%; 17% said ABOVE 3%.
We've been making the #GrowthSlowing call here at Hedgeye for months, so when the government reported first quarter GDP growth of 0.1% last month, it didn't surprise us. It also won't surprise us if the government revises its Q1 GDP estimate to a negative number tomorrow.
That said, #OldWall sees GDP accelerating in Q2. According to a Wall Street Journal survey of 48 economists, the consensus forecast is for the economy to expand 3.3% next quarter.
But we wanted to know what you thought.
Today's poll question was: Do you expect GDP to be above or below 3% at the end of Q2?
At the time of this post, 83% of voters expect it to be BELOW 3%; 17% said ABOVE 3%.
Of those who voted BELOW 3%, one person explained, "Corporate America is not going to invest capital needed to grow when you have an anti-capitalist President who believes in higher taxes, more government regulations and redistribution of wealth. This is a 'no-confidence' economy."
Additionally, this voter agreed the GDP would be BELOW 3% because it has "been declining since Q32013, 10 yr yields continue dropping since Dec2013…now @ 2.44% and housing has gotten bleaker; certainly makes a GDP > 3% truly improbable, if not impossible."
Another voter said that though they expected it to BELOW 3%, "when you are able to change the rules and how they are calculated like in Italy recently adding prostitution and illegal drugs...anything is possible!"
On the opposite end, one ABOVE 3% voter noted: "Q1 will probably be revised to negative. But the YoY rate of change is likely to be flat-to-down. And down even more so as we progress throughout 2H14."
Takeaway: While dicey from a seasonal perspective (VIX/JPY mid-summer ramp?), investors should begin the process of covering their Abenomics shorts.
With the Nikkei 225 up +4.5% WoW, the index is now down only -0.6% since our 2/19 note calling for consolidation in the Abenomics Trade (vs. -4.9% 1W ago). Inclusive of a -0.5% WoW decline, the JPY is now up only +0.4% vs. the USD since the aforementioned date (vs. +0.9% 1W ago).
If you've been inappropriately levered long of the Abenomics trade since then, ~150bps of wrong-way PnL probably feels more like a ~1,500bps squeeze in the context of the Nikkei 225 being down -9.9% YTD and the JPY being the 2nd strongest G10 currency vs. the USD in the YTD at +3.4%. As an aside, that is just shy of the +3.5% advance for the AUD, in line with the +3.4% advance for the NZD and followed next by the NOK's +1.6% gain. Did someone say, "#InflationAccelerating will matter in 2014?" I digress…
You know why we've been calling for said consolidation (refer to the aforementioned note), but to recap:
- US economic growth is slowing.
- The Fed will react to slowing growth by getting easier, at the margins – effectively perpetuating the growth slowdown via monetary inflation.
- All of this will occur before the BoJ expands its QQE program, effectively making the Fed the more dovish of the two central banks for at least 3-6M.
In the context of a Japanese fiscal policy vacuum (see: "missing Third Arrow"), we appropriately thought this setup called for a consolidation of the Abenomics Trade. We've certainly seen that in the data:
- The net length of the non-commercial futures and options positions in the JPY has tightened from a 6+ year low on 12/24 of -143.4k to -54.7k as of the latest reading.
- That delta puts the current TTM z-score at +1.4x, versus a reading of -3.1x on 12/24, which was precisely 1W prior to the cycle-peak of 105.31 on the USD/JPY cross.
- Speculators now have a cumulative $6.6B net short position in the JPY – good for the lowest level since early NOV '12… which is coincidentally when we began marketing the subsequently nicknamed Abenomics Trade as one of our core research ideas.
We've been writing about points #1 and #2 daily since JAN, so there's no need for us to waste any of your time proving that out in this note. In fact, our conviction on the intermediate-term outlook for US economic growth remains unshaken amid what has been a golf clap-worthy weather-related bounce domestically. What we will focus on, however, is the next 3-6M outlook from here with respect to Japan's GIP fundamentals.
Starting with our proprietary GIP process, we do not currently hold out-of-consensus expectations for Japanese growth and inflation dynamics – i.e. a sharp, inflationary slowdown in 2Q followed by a fleeting, disinflationary recovery in 2H.
GDP comps level off from here while CPI comps ramp in 2H. In the context of now-sideways trending inflation in Japan, that only increases pressure on the BoJ to ease by the end of 3Q – especially if Japanese consumer sentiment continues to careen to the downside (think: emerging pressure upon the Abe administration that may lead to intraparty dissension).
Giving respect where it is due, Japan's economy has been handling the +300bps consumption tax hike perhaps a little better than expected (but still terribly on an absolute basis). In going through all of Japan's key high-frequency economic data that has been reported for the 2nd quarter, there are three trends that jump out to us thus far:
- The initial decline was very sharp, but the 2nd derivative ceases to remain negative on a forward looking basis. The juxtaposition between APR and MAY PMI data, as well as current and future expectations for the Economy Watchers Survey and Small Business Sentiment support this conclusion.
- The sharp deceleration in growth was most felt in the consumer facing sectors, while the manufacturing and export sectors showed resiliency. The juxtaposition between APR Retail Sales and Imports data and APR Machine Tool Orders, Exports and Trade Balance data supports this conclusion.
- The tax hike was definitely passed on to producers and likely to consumers as well, given the weakness in Retail Sales. This means the GDP Deflator will play a prominent factor in determining the rate of Japanese Real GDP growth in 2Q. This hasn't been the case since 4Q08, when the GDP Deflator jumped from -0.8% QoQ to +1.5%; it came in at -0.2% QoQ for 1Q, which is in line with its trailing 3Y average of -0.2%.
We are also no longer out of consensus with regards to our outlook for Japanese fiscal and monetary policy – i.e. we also think the BoJ expands upon its QQE program by the end of 3Q or early into 4Q (statements on JUN 13, JUL 15, AUG 8, SEP 4, OCT 7 and OCT 31) and we think the Third Arrow of Abenomics has increasing potential to surprise consensus expectations to the upside with respect to corporate tax cuts, GPIF reform, corporate governance and/or labor market reforms come next month's supposed introduction.
Basically anything that will be interpreted as simulative to meaningful domestic CapEx expansion should be taken as a major positive amid continued #PayMeNow corporate governance in Japan; dividend payments by Japanese enterprises grew +20% in FY13 to a record ¥6.9T and 47% of companies plan to resume or hike payments further.
Rather than speculate on either of these fiscal/economic policy catalysts amid their respective deliberative processes, we'll just continue to read the tea leaves and react accordingly; email us if you'd like us to discuss the latest happenings further.
All told, our fundamental GIP outlook leaves us very much in consensus on a lot of things Japan – which means we should not be trying to call for contrarian outcomes with respect to Japanese capital and currency markets on Japanese fundamentals alone.
We still have a ton of conviction in our contrarian bear case on US GIP fundamentals, so assuming we're in the area code of right on both catalysts, it's hard to know which will be more favored by investors going forward (we'd argue that it's been all US #GrowthSlowing thus far).
As such, it no longer makes sense for investors to continue aggressively playing for counter-trend deltas in Japanese stocks and the JPY. To the extent you've done so – either by pairing back equity long holdings or outright selling them short – we think it makes sense to begin the unwind process of that trade.
This is especially true in the context of TACRM signals that, for the first time since 2013, are showing DM Equities gain relative momentum at the primary asset class level in lieu of FX and Commodities. Assuming this is the start of a trend, that Global Macro beta would be positive for Japanese equities and negative for the JPY.
In short, the risk of consensus finally being right on Japan – based solely on Japanese fundamentals alone – is a lot higher now than it has been in the YTD.
Best of luck out there,
Darius Dale
Associate: Macro Team
Daily Trading Ranges
20 Proprietary Risk Ranges
Daily Trading Ranges is designed to help you understand where you're buying and selling within the risk range and help you make better sales at the top end of the range and purchases at the low end.
We pulled MCD from the Hedgeye Best Ideas list as a short on 2/14/2014 at $94.17/share, largely due to an underleveraged balance sheet and the potential for shareholder friendly financial engineering.
Today, McDonald's management revealed several new initiatives the company will undertake to enhance shareholder value:
- Optimize the capital structure
- Optimize the ownership structure
- Scrutinize G&A
The company expects to return $18 to $20 billion to shareholders between 2014 and 2016 through a combination of dividends and share repurchases, representing a 10% to 20% increase over the amount of cash returned between 2011 and 2013.
McDonald's CFO Pete Bensen stated, "Our 3-year cash return target is based on several activities including the significant free cash flow generated from our operations, as well as the use of cash proceeds from our debt additions and refranchising activity."
Hedgeye — McDonald's stated back in March that it was looking at ways to "optimize [its] capital structure" to create value. We find today's news disappointing, as we believe the company could leverage its balance sheet significantly more. We have always felt that any financial engineering event would only be a temporary boost to the stock given the decelerating sales environment.
On June 9th, MCD will release its May sales data. Our current read is that sales trends will be uninspiring, even with the rollout of the high density tables. With the financial engineering news in the rear view mirror, we'd be tempted to revisit our short thesis in the coming months. The company plans to report 2Q14 results on July 22nd.
Howard Penney
Managing Director
Fred Masotta
Takeaway: DSW and BWS have essentially traded places.
DSW and BWS Earnings
One company missed by 13%, the other beat by 13%. One comped down 3.7%, and the other comped up 1.3%. One guided up. The other guided down. One blamed weather. The other did not. One SIGMA improved, the other eroded. All else equal, we'd bet that 9 out of 10 people would say that that the company that surprised on the upside is DSW, and the loser is Brown Shoe. But today, they'd be wrong.
* * * * * *
Editor's Note: This is a research excerpt from Hedgeye Retail Sector Head Brian McGough. Follow Brian on Twitter @HedgeyeRetail.
Subscribe to Hedgeye.
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As our Bible lets us know, the reason why certain pastors like Pastor Joel Peebles are not treated fairly, it is simply because Satan knows they are real with God and desires for them to serve him, instead of God. In John 10:10, it says this: 'The thief cometh not, but for to steal, and to kill, and to destroy: I am come that they might have life, and that they might have it more abundantly.' Like God told Simon in 22:31, And the Lord said, Simon, Simon, behold, Satan has desired to have you, that he may sift you as wheat' this is what is going on with this situation against Pastor Joel Peebles and even in the previous situation with Pastor Riva Tims. Satan uses people to work against God's chosen ones. You may ask, how does this happen in the church? Let us make this more clear than what we mentioned in the opening of this article, those whom are not true children of God are automatically on an assignment for Satan to destroy their future. They are automatically candidates to become evildoers against God's children and when they do, they have no consideration for how much emotional pain they cause on a person. In this specific case of Pastor Joel Peebles, there is a well-known pastor of a mega ministry, Pastor Michael Freeman who allegedly has something to do with the assets of the late Pastor Betty Peebles, according to People of Praise, Maryland blog. Now, how was he able to allegedly get his hands on what should belong to Pastor Joel Peebles? This is an alleged demon of greed that has caused these church people to not only take the church, but the very home Pastor Joel Peebles was raised in. Can't you see why we can no longer unite with the race of black people in general and why it is so very important just to unite with all races whom are truly righteous and fear God? We are indeed in a spiritual battle and many African Americans in the church are on the team of the Devil fighting the true saints of God while allegedly possessed with demons. They do not even think about, if the late Pastor Betty Peebles was living, she would not have allowed them to offend her son nor take her assets. In our opinion, these people are selfish, greedy and very envious of Pastor Joel Peebles.
Although, there is a sense of pride when it comes to discussing the history of the black church, we must realize many black people whom call themselves born again Christians are on their way to hell. They ignore the scripture in Matthew 6:24 that says not to worship money: 'No man can serve two masters: for either he will hate the one, and love the other; or else he will hold to the one, and despise the other. Ye cannot serve God and mammon.' Also, they ignore the scripture in I Timothy 6:10 that says 'Money is the root of all evil'.
So now, let us now pray for the son of the late Dr. Betty Peebles, Pastor Joel Peebles. Let us pray against the demonic force that is allegedly controlling the souls of these people to cause misery in his life. This unfair treatment is no different than racial discrimination, this is why we can no longer join those whom are just focusing on race, but we are spiritual people whom are anointed enough to realize so often black people are used by Satan to destroy their own kind, so we must command Satan to flee.
Jesus, we come before you right now. We bring Pastor Joel Peebles, including his wife in prayer to you right now. Lord, Pastor Joel Peebles is going through a lot of emotional distress caused by people whom have allegedly fired him from being the pastor of his mother's church. Now, we are learning that this well-known televangelist who is also the pastor of his own church, Pastor Michael Freeman allegedly is the executor over the late Betty Peebles estate. God, this is so unfair and we ask you to bind this demonic force that has been working against Pastor Joel Peebles, in the mighty name of Jesus. We command Satan to flee and leave this man of God, alone. We bind ever demonic force that has taken control over the church building and the home of the late Dr. Betty Peebles. Lord, we realize our journey as a believer is not always easy, but we praise you through it all. We praise you for all of the hardships we endure, because we know you are right there with us during the trials as you are with Pastor Joel Peebles. We pray for strength in his life dear Father and we believe you are going to work everything out in his favor. In Jesus name, Amen. Now if you believe this prayer, come on and praise God for working it out for our dear brother, Pastor Joel Peebles. Lift your hands and praise Him right now. Demons have to flee, because there is power in the name Jesus.
Photo Courtesy: http://www.joy105.com


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Universities and colleges are to be given extra money to encourage poorer students to continue studying after gaining their degrees, David Willetts has announced.
The Universities Minister said that a £25 million fund is to be created to hand out grants worth between £300,000 and £3 million to help disadvantaged postgraduate students.
The move comes amid growing concern that postgraduate education is too expensive for many people.
Under the scheme, universities and colleges will be given funding to attract and support poorer students studying for a postgraduate qualification.
The funding is on top of money announced last week by Chancellor George Osborne in his spending review, which is coming from the Government's move to "refocus" the National Scholarship Programme (NSP).
The NSP, a university scholarship scheme for poor students announced at the time that plans to triple tuition fees to a maximum of £9,000 were unveiled, amid concerns about the impact of the hike, has had its funding slashed by £100 million.
Funding for the £150 million initiative is to be cut by two-thirds to £50 million in 2015/16, and will no longer support undergraduates, with the money moved to help disadvantaged postgraduate students instead.
Mr Willett said: "Postgraduate study is good for students, good for universities, and good for the economy.
"We want talented graduates from all backgrounds to feel inspired and able to continue their education."
The Department for Business, Innovation and Skills (BIS) said it expects universities and businesses to contribute money to raise the total amount of funding available.
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- Higher Education
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"Chuck" has already come back from the presumed-dead more than once in its four seasons on NBC — and in each of the past two years, it's had an initial 13-episode order extended. Still, co-creator Chris Fedak can only deal with what's in front of him now, which means that as far as he's concerned, episode 13 of Season 5 will be the series finale of "Chuck."
And, he tells Zap2it, "we kind of know our ending."
Fedak says he and co-creator Josh Schwartz pitched an outline for Season 5 to NBC chairman Bob Greenblatt (who, by the way, isn't wavering on his statements that this is the last season) earlier this year to help secure a pickup.
"So we have a big arc and shape of where we want to go, and we kind of know our ending," Fedak says. "But right now we're making it real and [working on] those week-to-week adventures."
"Chuck" has aired, by our count, five episodes that could have served as series finales: the second-, third- and fourth-season enders, plus the 13th episodes in Seasons 3 and 4, which would have been the endpoint without the extensions. That's a lot of practice, but also maybe a challenge for the show's writers.
"This one better be better than all of them," Fedak says with a smile. "But it's great for us."
Knowing this will be the final season, he says, "is freeing from a storytelling perspective. You really do know that you're writing an endpoint, you know you're getting 13 episodes, you know you're getting a finale, and that's great. However, we've always built seasons that way."
Fedak of course wouldn't say where "Chuck" will end, but he does say he has an ending in mind, and it's different than what he's conceived in the past. "It's different in tone," he says. "It's just very different."
"Chuck" is set to premiere at 8 p.m. ET Friday, Oct. 21 on NBC.


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New search set for 'plane fall' man
Crews are due to resume the search for a man who reportedly fell into the sea from a small plane off Florida.
The call for help came on Thursday afternoon, when the pilot of a Piper PA 46 aircraft radioed "mayday, mayday, mayday," and told an air traffic controller that a door was ajar and a passenger had fallen from the plane.
Crews from US Coast Guard, Miami-Dade Police and Miami-Dade Fire Rescue searched into the evening.
Police spokesman Javier Baez says they have no evidence of foul play, and are gathering as much evidence as possible.
Both the Coast Guard and fire rescue officials say they had not determined if the call was legitimate.


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In the first segment of Thursday's PFT Live, Mike Florio looks at the latest news in the race to sign Nnamdi Asomugha, thinks Reggie Bush's desire to be the No. 1 guy led to his trade to the Dolphins, believes the Patriots' acquisition of Albert Haynesworth is relatively low risk and more.
This video is no longer available. Click here to watch more NBC Sports videos!PFT Live: Crazy first few days of football's return
Posted by NBCSports.com on July 28, 2011, 4:16 PM EDT
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Saturday, August 18, 2012
Kendrick Perkins Photo of the Day
This is my favorite picture of Perk. Not sure why other than it shows he is capable of putting the "Oh no" look on LeBron's face. When LeBron talked trash about Perk when Griffin dunked on him, maybe he was getting even for this photo of Perk totally owning him. And, about that dunk. Perk is a defender. He will get in front of every player going for a dunk and sometimes he will get the block and sometimes he will get dunked on. I personally think that Griffin committed an offensive foul on that dunk but it wasn't called. I'd rather have my center willing to step in and try to block a shot and be posterized once in a while than have one who steps away to avoid the contact. I'll take Perk every time.
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Longtime television director David Grossman makes his feature debut with this direct-to-video sequel to the 1997 hit family comedy David Grossman. Filling the loincloth originally worn by Brendan Fraser, Chris Showerman plays George this time around. Since the events of the first film, George and Ursula (Julie Benz stepping in for more
All George of the Jungle 2 cast + crew photos