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Leigh Caldwell
London, UK
Behavioural economist, mathematician, owner of behavioural software company Inon
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Do the varieties of apple exist before the process starts, but are produced in zero (or minuscule) quantities at high fixed cost? If so, then the increase in scale production of the "new" varieties reflects a fall in average price, meaning real GDP has increased.
You describe the new varieties as exogenous, but if you endogenise them - by assuming that they could be developed earlier, if anyone could be bothered to invest the capital in doing so - then perhaps you can treat this as a price fall.
Alternatively we could question the assumption that the price will remain the same. If people prefer variety, wouldn't they be willing to change their labour-leisure tradeoff to buy more apples with more labour?
Finally, if the economy produces only apples, how are people "getting richer" if the total apple productivity (in either quality or quantity) isn't rising? I guess maybe GDP could rise continuously during the period that N varieties are consumed, and then make a step fall when variety N+1 is introduced, but that doesn't sound right either.
Regardless of the theory, I do agree with Luis's anecdotal observation. I think there have been calculations of the number of SKUs available in the modern economy (in the billions) and that this figure is supposed to be rising.
A closed economy produces only apples, using fixed amounts of labour and land. Suppose there is an exogenous increase in the number of varieties of apples produced. With a constant returns to scale technology, GDP stays the same. But if people have a taste for variety, or a variety of different ...
If audiences want to hear political gossip, surely that's what they will listen to, whether the BBC broadcasts it or not? Of course it would be great if the BBC spent more on More or Less-style analyses of political claims. But if they got rid of their political correspondents would viewers turn over to More or Less - or would they turn over to ITV, Sky and twitter?
There's a growing campaign to sack Laura Kuenssberg. This seems to me an example of the fundamental attribution error. What's wrong with the BBC is not so much Ms Kuenssberg herself, but the very nature of political reporting. I suspect instead that there's a case for sacking all its political c...
I can see that in principle this is true. But is it in practice?
In reality we know very little about the payoff functions, beliefs and information available to other players. We don't even know that much about our own! Therefore we make moves fairly blindly, and (if we are especially sophisticated) use those moves to learn a bit about the other players. Though by the time we've learned much, the game has changed and it might not do us much good.
We could in principle model the possible payoff functions and information sets of the other players as a probabilistic distribution and determine the optimal moves accordingly - but in practice that is neither achievable, nor do people really even try to do it.
In certain cases the game is simple enough that we can model the equilibrium outcome rather than the steps to get there (though it can still be instructive to imagine the actual causal chain from, say, a gas pipeline explosion to the ultimate effect on the equilibrium point of the petrol market). But in many other cases, we can't, and these are in fact the cases which never really reach an equilibrium - or not in sensible human timescales anyway.
Maybe sometimes you can move the definition of "simultaneity" up a level. In physics [I can't remember if physics analogies are frowned upon here] there are plenty of problems which do not reach a static equilibrium - eg pendulums or waves on a string. But if instead of saying that the atoms of the string reach equilibrium, we say that the _waves_ reach equilibrium then we can say how the length and tension of the string and the energy of its vibration codetermine the amplitude and frequency of the waves. However, I don't think economics does normally take this explicit step - and even then, I'm not sure that the majority of economic problems can be handled that way either.
So if the point is: are simple microeconomic problems better modelled as simultaneous, non-Artsie-linear systems, then sure. But all of economics? Or the interesting problems of economics? I don't think it's the best philosophy. [as mentioned above, I understand that Leijonhufvud's work is partly based on this argument]
I think it almost always is. In a previous post I said that economics is a "non-linear" discipline, in the "Artsie" sense of that word. Most (all?) economic models involve simultaneous causation. They don't say that A causes B causes C causes D in a "linear" (Artsie sense) sequence like billiard...
There are some different phenomena mixed together here.
Overconfident CEOs - are successful because they convince us they _do_ have merit. We can this as a second-order effect; rather than being a direct product of economic exchange it arises from our cognition and beliefs _about_ economic exchange. In order to make decisions about exchange we need to use available signals to estimate what the outcome of that exchange might be. Thus, people have an interest in manipulating those signals independently of their interest in developing absolute merit.
Jedward and Brick on the other hand are successful directly because of their lack of merit; we all benefit from a positional good of kinds by being reminded of our superiority to them. This might even be a third-order good: it's not that they are of direct value to us; or that we think they might be; it's that our perception of their lack of value influences our perception of our own potential value to others.
Boris Johnson and George Galloway on the other hand do have a genuine merit, in that they help people to reveal their identity to themselves. Again this might be a second-order effect, in that it doesn't directly produce anything of value but just influences their audience's perception of its own value - but they do that particular job better than most of the other potential candidates who are available for it.
I guess Chris's argument is that this is not based on any talent they have, but simply on their similarity in merit/value to their mediocre audience. I don't think this is quite enough to explain their success; they also have a genuine skill in communicating this audience's particular prejudices and inanity back to itself.
What binds all these together is that the modern economy is as much symbolic as real; much of the utility in our life experience comes from our guesses about future value, contingent events or other people's happiness, rather than objective physical experiences. In a symbolic world, we cannot fully communicate (and therefore cannot experience the world completely) without symbols that are negative or self-referential as well as positive.
What do the following have in common?: newspaper columnists paid six-figure sums to echo their readers' prejudices; bosses who are overconfident and/or psychopaths; reality TV show contestants; Jedward and Samantha Brick who profit from people laughing at them; and radio show hosts employed for ...
(I'm talking about politics here by the way)
My reaction to the news that businessmen paid to gain influence with Tory ministers is similar to my reaction when Hugh Grant was arrested with a prostitute: "I'm surprised he has to pay for it." The truth is, of course, that business has for years influenced government policy - under Labour and...
The thing about paying for it is that you don't have to pretend to care about the other person's happiness any more. Liberating.
My reaction to the news that businessmen paid to gain influence with Tory ministers is similar to my reaction when Hugh Grant was arrested with a prostitute: "I'm surprised he has to pay for it." The truth is, of course, that business has for years influenced government policy - under Labour and...
Two thoughts:
First, should we expect investment to always be a high proportion of profits? In an economy where most people want to save for their future [for simplicity, let's assume saving is the same as investment], capital investment should indeed be more than 100% of profits, as the population will be net savers.
Perhaps an older population wants to dissave and thus disinvest; taking its profits from prior investments and consuming instead of reinvesting them.
If a higher share of capital is now owned by 65-year-olds than in the past, we might expect exactly this to happen. Overlapping generations models are all very well if the generations are homogeneous.
The depressing thing is that capital being disproportionately held by 65-year-olds is both a consequence _and_ a cause of low growth, so this problem might become self-feeding. Although human capital is probably possessed increasingly by younger people, so the terms of trade on which the old buy services from the young might change and partly redress the balance.
Second, and unrelated: Andrew Lilico's column yesterday, suggesting that we should increase interest rates to boost growth.
His argument seems to be either that there is currently too much investment and this will result in lower long-term welfare (which seems unlikely) or that low interest rates keep alive unproductive firms which should go bust, allowing productive ones to grow. Is that a plausible description of the situation today? (Tim's comment above hints at the same thing)
The most significant fact in today's national accounts numbers is not the trivial downward revision to GDP growth. It is instead the fact that the UK's fundamental economic problem - capitalists' reluctance to invest - is as acute as ever. My chart shows that, last year, non-financial firms capi...
You overstate the case slightly. If everyone worked harder/smarter to find a job, one would expect job matching to improve, resulting in faster job offers (slightly lower unemployment), more productivity (and output) and a (perhaps small) multiplier effect which will create net new jobs. However this is a minor effect compared to the fallacy which Cameron appears to be indulging in.
There is a more sinister interpretation. Perhaps Cameron knows full well about the fallacy of composition. Maybe he wants to create a division between those slightly more effective, skilled or hard-working unemployed people who will get the few jobs, and those a few steps behind who just miss out - and can then be blamed as feckless losers. Those who do get (or keep) a job will make the mistake of thinking "I worked hard like Mr Cameron said and I got a job, so if _she_ didn't get one she must be a lazy so-and-so". A recipe for class division and potentially, the creation of new loyal Tory voters.
I don't really believe this; I just think Cameron says whatever he thinks sounds plausible and will get him re-elected. He probably suspects that nothing the state can do will make any (positive) difference - the simplest and most fundamental ideology of Tories - so it's just a matter of doing as little as possible and staying in power as long as he can.
The government has been criticised for triggering panic buying of petrol. What's not been pointed out is that its mistake here is not an isolated one, but is in fact a common theme of some of its major policies. Cameron said yesterday: If there is an opportunity to top up your tank if a strike ...
When I read this two weeks ago I thought there was something missing, but I couldn't quite see what it was. I was just reminded to come back and look again by @stephenfgordon and @mattyglesias on twitter.
I've realised that I didn't instinctively see the proposal as being anti-labour, or even as looking anti-labour to voters. A more sellable (or in Nick's term political-economy-compatible) proposal might be the following.
Target a wage increase of not 2.5% but 4%.
Based on expected productivity increase of 1.5-2% per year, this should be long-term equivalent to a CPI increase of 2-2.5%. Make sure CPI figures are still published so that people can see the difference between the two.
Sell it to voters as a real-terms annual increase of 1.5-2% (plus whatever you get from being promoted or gaining more experience or seniority in the workplace - which every voter, being overconfident, will expect to happen disproportionately to them personally)
As Nick hinted, it might seem to a macroeconomist like this is effectively equivalent to his proposal, but I think to a voter it's not. The 4% increase is better compared to pre-existing anchors than 2.5%. And a focus on productivity and showing the difference between CPI and wages would help to make the idea more popular.
Am I wrong on the productivity figures? In the long run will it matter what the actual number is, once this expectation gets baked in? I'm not sure, but I think this proposal would be more politically achievable than Nick's, just because of that change in number.
WARNING: if you are not a macroeconomist you may not understand this post, even if you think you do. This is especially true if you are not a macroeconomist but think you know something about "political economy". (When I hear the words "political economy" I usually reach for my shovel.*) This po...
That's exactly the point. In her letter, she shows that Adorno is translatable into a very comprehensible sentence without losing any meaning. Which makes her own example, for which she won the Bad Writing prize, all the more egregious. Here's that beautiful lump of prose:
The move from a structuralist account in which capital is understood to structure social relations in relatively homologous ways to a view of hegemony in which power relations are subject to repetition, convergence, and rearticulation brought the question of temporality into the thinking of structure, and marked a shift from a form of Althusserian theory that takes structural totalities as theoretical objects to one in which the insights into the contingent possibility of structure inaugurate a renewed conception of hegemony as bound up with the contingent sites and strategies of the rearticulation of power.
Dylan Matthews: >Judith Butler Makes the Case Against Her Own Bad Writing: Why do we have to write sentences like: >>man is the ideology of dehumanization >when ones like: >Early 20th century humanists used the word 'man' when considering individuals in isolation from their social contexts, a usa...
The problem is that fund managers are living in a certain kind of fantasy world where they think they have a right to a 20% increase in capital value on whatever assets they feel like buying. Thankfully there are also people (or regulations) that force them to pay attention to downside risk too, which is why they're hanging into all those Treasuries they hate.
"Mom, I hate crossing the road at the traffic lights."
"Well do you want to be hit by a car?"
"No." (much pouting ensues, followed by a crossing at the traffic lights)
AP: >US Debt - Money Managers' Least Favorite Investment: Ask the people who invest billions for a living to name their favorite picks for 2012 and you'll get a smorgasbord worthy of a holiday party: Brazilian stocks, U.S. junk bonds, and government debt from Colombia. Ask them what they dislike ...
This is suggestive but not conclusive. Benford's law depends (as you would expect) on the distribution of data being tested. For instance, we might not expect to see Benford's law applying to the scores in basketball games: the nature and length of the games results in lots of 5, 6, 7, 8 and 9 initial digits, some 1s, and hardly any 2s or 3s.
One could argue that competitive pressures would drive corporate results to be correlated with each other to a greater extent than in a random power-law distribution.
Or, even if the figures are partly influenced by the managers of the companies, this might be a financially oriented management strategy (e.g. invest sufficient, or work one's salespeople hard enough, to ensure a 10% sales increase each year). I'm not certain that this would result in a Benford's law violation but it is mathematically plausible.
When a data trend is simply going up over time it is very hard to ascribe it econometrically to any particular cause. Maybe the data regarding individual industries which are mentioned at the end of the article are clearer. But the alternative causes above could also fit quite well with booms and bubbles in each industry.
Or maybe it's fraud after all. I'm not saying that never happens!
This is from Jialan Wang: Benford's Law and the Decreasing Reliability of Accounting Data for US Firms, by Jialan Wang: ...[T]here are more numbers in the universe that begin with the digit 1 than 2, or 3, or 4, or 5, or 6, or 7, or 8, or 9. And more numbers that begin with 2 than 3, or 4, and ...
Your 9-point scale is a good outline of the spectrum from fiscal to monetary intervention.
There are certainly adjacent steps on the scale which are not equivalent. Your example in a later comment is a good one:
"Suppose the government buys a brand new office chair. That's fiscal. Suppose it buys a chair that was produced 5 minutes ago? 5 hours ago? 5 days? 5 weeks? 5 months? 5 years? 50 years? Someone's got the cash, and will want to replace the chair."
In fact, this example shows why the two policies are different. There are lots of old office chairs which would not be replaced if the government bought them. In fact, there are lots of chairs in abandoned office buildings which would be brought out and dusted off to sell to the government if Congress passed a cash-for-chairs scheme. This is an argument both for and against fiscal policy. For, because buying newly produced chairs is better than buying old ones (antiques?). Against, because it shows how easy fiscal policy is to game.
Behaviourally, this is explained by some kind of status quo bias/risk aversion - as a business I might hang onto equipment just in case it comes in useful - its net present value is slightly greater than zero. But it doesn't mean that I would replace it if someone bought it.
Now that should not be true of government or corporate bonds because they are liquid, with a clear tradeable value. But it will definitely be true of investment in, or lending to, small businesses, which is not fungible. It will be true of many fiscal interventions. There are a few reasons why intervention at step 1 will not be equivalent to intervention at step 9 - most of which I think arise from the leap from step 8 to 9, because old and new projects are only equivalent in a limited subset of the economy (liquid corporate bonds and some equities).
Which is not an argument for or against step 1 relative to step 9. Either might be right. Each has different positive and negative impacts. Each is reversible to a different extent, has different political acceptability, raises different credibility questions, and creates different kinds of incentives. You've demonstrated quite well why they are not as different as they might instinctively feel. But they are different, and perhaps these essentially political questions of credibility and incentives are the main reason they are different.
Is there really a difference between an "excess saving theorist" and someone who believes in "excess hoarding of money"? I think I have been persuaded by you that these two are the same, but that's from a starting point of some macroeconomic naivety. What is the alternative theory?
Paul Krugman has a lot in common with quasi-monetarists like me. [Update: I'm going to re-emphasise this. On reading Paul's post, it is now much clearer to me than it was in the past that there is a helluva lot in common between Paul Krugman and quasi-monetarism. So many economists just don't ge...
By "It also charges this Congress to come up with an additional $1.5 trillion in savings by Christmas" I don't think it means the savings should happen by Christmas, just that Congress should come up with them by Christmas. Presumably they will mostly be back-loaded towards the end of the ten-year (is it ten years?) remit of the super-committee.
Of course the announcement of the future cuts might have a small contractionary effect, but that's a bit of a Ricardian equivalence argument, and I don't think we really believe in Ricardian equivalence round here...do we?
Here's my reaction to the speech: Obama's Jobs Speech: Bolder Than Expected What did you think?
I posted here earlier, but my comment seems to have vanished - I assume there was a posting problem, as I got some kind of error on my first attempt.
This is surely a matter of degree - there is no absolute answer.
Yes, labour is not entirely fungible; but people do have some flexible skills. Half of the current unemployed had jobs three years ago, so they're not completely unemployable. Their skills are not all applicable to just any construction project, but they're not entirely useless either.
Simple hydraulic Keynesianism won't work, because it does distort incentives; but if designed right it will work much better than no intervention at all. The Austrian insights of heterogeneous labour supply and price signals certainly have some truth; so do the Keynesian insights that some components of demand are driven by aggregate income and that money spent out of labour income does have an effect on whether resources suboptimally sit idle.
Does unemployment create value by incentivising people to retrain and redeploy themselves to new industries? Sure. Is it value-destroying because it makes it harder for people to demonstrate their skills credibly to new potential employers? Yep. Which effect is stronger? That's surely an empirical question, and the data in studies like the Mercatus one might help us to answer it.
My philosophical view is that there is no such thing as no intervention: even if the government doesn't do anything directly, that project manager in the quoted comment might still get hired away by another private company; value is always being both created and destroyed by factors outside of our control. I think that (well-designed, carefully targeted) intervention can have positive effects; but it does need to be applied with caution, recognising the risks of misdirected resources and bad investments. Government should be humble, using market signals as far as possible to help it work out which public goods have a positive net value.
Steven Horwitz The Mercatus studies that Tyler wrote about this morning have received quite a bit of harsh criticism, especially from the left, including this Jonathan Chait piece at TNR. Chait argues that the study misses the point that "labor is fungible." The Garret Jones & Dan Rothschild s...
Duncan noticed something similar yesterday:
Sam Bowman and George Selgin say that Hayek deserves more credit than he's getting, because the Austrian theory of the business cycle seems to fit the boom and bust of recent years rather well. But it's not just Hayek who had a theory that roughly fits the recent facts. So did Marx. He too descr...
...there's an awful lot of poor lost souls wandering around the internet who have just discovered the marvellous truth of I=S as an accounting identity, and think they have found some magical philosopher's stone...
I suspect this is because the definitions of S and I are not quite intuitive to non-economists (and even to some economists, perhaps).
Imagine I earn $100 and put $10 in the bank, but the bank hasn't yet found a business to lend it to, so it hasn't been "invested". An intuitive way to describe this is: S=10, I=0 - oh look, S=I is violated!
Of course S is not really 10, because my saving is cancelled out by the bank's borrowing (or the bank's shareholders' borrowing if you like). That's without even getting into the question of whether the $100 is actually income.
People who think in the above way (which is not unreasonable given the normal use of English language) are inevitably going to be surprised by the assertion that S=I. This will lead to one of two responses: "don't be ridiculous, your economic theories of 'equilibrium' and 'rationality' are obviously wrong" or "wow, look at this amazing fact I discovered. Isn't the world a strange place? I will now show off my new cleverness to my unenlightened friends/fellow bulletin board readers."
If they were taught the technical meanings of S and I, or even that there are technical meanings, their amazement and confusion would quickly dissipate. Admittedly it would probably be replaced with boredom; good luck getting most of those people to read and understand this post. Thanks though - it's a good refresher, especially for those (like me) not formally trained in economics. I'm sure I have made similar mistakes in the past.
There's a lot of people wandering around the internet who are very confused about Investment = Saving. Maybe they have been mistaught, or maybe they have mislearned? I don't know. But I'm doing this as a public service, even though it's a thoroughly boring job for me. Someone's got to do it. And...
My whole livelihood comes from selling willingness to pay estimates.
Not for environmental goods, admittedly...at least not yet. We act as pricing consultants for a range of companies. It's extremely valuable to them to know what people will pay for their products.
Though I'm not sure I am ready to tell Daniel the answer to his question...
By freeing universities from cumbersome state regulations, universities should become more efficient, effective and competitive, Petro said. They also would have more time to partner with businesses, create co-ops and internships, and pursue opportunities to turn research ideas into commercial p...
To expand slightly on this: most classical economic equilibrium models are continuous in most variables - this makes them much easier to work with for the modeller, and for rational agents it is usually a natural assumption.
Non-rational or behavioural models (I'd include sticky-price or sticky-wage models in this) may well have discontinuous features. For instance, the very fact that wages are sticky means that a change in wages of 0 is special, and would not be expected to have similar effects to a change of 0.01%.
What you're talking about here is a shift from a rational model to an only-slightly-irrational model by a change of parameters; my intuition is that this change should be continuous and not fragile, but I could be wrong.
Assume prices are perfectly flexible. Assume full information rational expectations. Assume money is neutral, super-neutral, and super-duper-neutral, etc. The Fisher equation holds exactly. And, the central bank sets the nominal rate of interest. And the economy is always in equilibrium. The mod...
OK, I'll comment on point 1 - the existence of "fragility in the limit".
This is the same as the mathematical concept of continuity. A function a(x) is continuous at a point c if the limit a(x: x->c) exists, and is the same as a(c).
In this case, your condition of "fragility" means that the limit of inflation as f->0 is not the same as inflation AT f=0.
Technically you are not talking about a function being continuous, but the behaviour of a model being "continuous" as one of its parameters tends towards zero. However, it's easier to write the definition in terms of the behaviour of the dependent variables in the model (e.g. inflation, prices).
We're getting a bit meta, because we are not talking about whether the individual functions in the model are continuous (e.g. is inflation a continuous function of interest rates); we're talking about the behaviour of model variables as you vary the basic parameters of the model. But these can still be represented as functions - e.g. holding nominal interest rates constant at 1%, how does inflation vary as a function of the proportion of f, the fraction of prices that are sticky.
I think that this particular function _is_ continuous in that variable, but that doesn't invalidate the concept of fragility - it is still a meaningful question to ask.
Assume prices are perfectly flexible. Assume full information rational expectations. Assume money is neutral, super-neutral, and super-duper-neutral, etc. The Fisher equation holds exactly. And, the central bank sets the nominal rate of interest. And the economy is always in equilibrium. The mod...
Rather than look at the reasoning of the f>0 example, I want to go back to the first "perfect" model:
"The model predicts that if the central bank increases the nominal interest rate by 1%, the rate of inflation will instantly increase by 1% too"
Without knowing the workings of the model intimately, my sense is that this can only happen because of an instantaneous fall in prices. Looking at it another way, if the central bank increases nominal interest rates, the money supply effectively falls (indeed this may be its mechanism for making interest rates increase). If the money supply falls, and money is neutral, prices must instantly fall.
So the inflation happens, but from a lower price level.
If this is correct, then the "limit" behaviour in your imperfect model is exactly the same - the "explosive deflation" of an instant reduction in the price level. So maybe the model isn't so fragile after all.
Assume prices are perfectly flexible. Assume full information rational expectations. Assume money is neutral, super-neutral, and super-duper-neutral, etc. The Fisher equation holds exactly. And, the central bank sets the nominal rate of interest. And the economy is always in equilibrium. The mod...
I agree that this would probably work to increase output, but I don't think it's Keynesian.
It's the government using its market power to buy more stuff for the same price (reminds me of when some big retailers in the UK simply told all their suppliers that they expected an immediate 2% price cut or else they'd stop buying. Most caved in)
Because the government is a big purchaser, this might have some macroeconomic effects - wage deflation, which may or may not be positive depending on your models, and increased real output.
But I don't think it's Keynesian in any way - the Keynesian model depends on government borrowing to cancel out private attempts to save, and you have excluded that by assumption. It's just ordinary government intervention.
(yes, there's a correlation between supporting government intervention and believing in Keynesian models. But that doesn't make this Keynesian)
I do think this plan would have a monetary effect - it would increase velocity, to the extent that the newly-employed have a higher marginal propensity to consume than the already-employed. Does that count as monetary?
Park your politics at the door for this one. Yes, I know that will be hard for some. But it's OFF TOPIC. [Update: now that the macroeconomics have been thoroughly discussed in comments, I can relax this. Civilised discussion of politics is now OK.] Yes, I understand Keynesian macroeconomics at l...
Ah - reading your reply to Scott, I think we are both saying the same thing.
Does the value of an intrinsically worthless (paper) money depend on the government's power to tax? I am going to answer this question from a quantity-theory perspective. The short answer is "yes". But the full answer is different from some other theories that also answer "yes". Those of you who...
From Part 2: "Hell, even I could do that. "Here are 10 bits of green paper per person. Unless I get all 10 back at the end of the year I will beat you up. How much will you give me for them?". "Nothing" is one possible answer, even if my threat is credible."
I don't think "Nothing" is a realistic answer. I'll offer you something for your 10 bits of paper (and for 100 more of them) because I know I can sell them to other people who will need to give them back to you at the end of the year. The scarcity, combined with their practical application, creates value.
I don't think this means that taxes are in themselves necessary to create a value in currency - taxes are just one of many ways to establish the network effect which you have described.
And in Part 1, I don't believe taxes intrinsically give the currency value either. In this model, taxes are simply a way to reduce government borrowing - which reduces the broad money supply. But any other reduction in borrowing would have the same effect; if companies decided to fund more of their investment from retained earnings and less from borrowing; or if people bought houses with cash instead of mortgages.
The value of the currency arises (partly) from the desire to use cash instead of debt - government is just the biggest of many agents who can independently make the decision to do that. Taxes aren't special.
Does the value of an intrinsically worthless (paper) money depend on the government's power to tax? I am going to answer this question from a quantity-theory perspective. The short answer is "yes". But the full answer is different from some other theories that also answer "yes". Those of you who...
There is no need for a causal relationship in either direction. Do chickens cause eggs, or do eggs cause chickens? Neither - the chicken-egg ecosystem is an emergent phenomenon from a world under evolutionary pressure.
Despite how it sounds, this is the punchline to a joke about social scientists. It also does not mean we have to take the chicken-egg dialectic as it is given to us - we can intervene, co-opt it to make Nando's, or eliminate it with gradual work and domestication. Same with violent right-wing extremism.
Anders Breivik was just a "lone psychopath" says Tim Stanley. To which we might reply - yeah, just like David Copeland, Timothy McVeigh, Jared Lee Loughner (arguably), Tony Lecomber and Robert Cottage were lone psychopaths. The ease of this retort lends weight to the notion that, perhaps, "right...


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95 2.5l inline 4 temp gauge problems!!!!!!
first off i need help on where the gauge sensor located and will this fix my problem or what if it dont what will cause it to quit reading i wanna go muddin on sat but i wanna no if my motor is heating up also my fan protecter broke is that a problem on the engine side of things?
Step 1:
Construct your sentences in a manner that we can read, this means using commas where needed, as well as capitalizing the beginning of your sentences and ending with a period. It's not knocking your sentence construction, it's helping us understand what you're trying to say clearly. Step 2: The temperature sensor on 2.5L engines is on the drivers side of the engine block at the back of the head, it has a green wire coming off of it. Your fan shroud is absolutely going to effect engine operation temperature. If the fan were butted up against the radiator it wouldn't be an issue, but because the fan is so far back into the engine back, it relies on that fan shroud to funnel the air through the radiator. Without it you will very likely overheat on the trail. You can pick one up at a Jeep junkyard for next to nothing, or if you have all the pieces you can try to repair it by drilling holes and using some electrical wire. |
Yeah you are going to need a shroud regardless of anything else on the 2.5.
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subset: commoncrawl


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Levi asked me a long time ago to make him this fish. I finally got around to it and then of course Ellie needed one too.
I wasn't overly impressed with the pattern. They are pretty easy, but the directions were not very clear. I just winged most of it. If I did them again I would place the fins differently, but it didn't annoy me enough to warrant redoing it. The pattern can be found here.I did them in Caron Simply Soft so they would be washable, a must for toys in my opinion. They would be so fun to add a little chime to for a baby.
I love them, especially their giant dorsal fins. The kids both sleep with them every night.
Thanks for reading!


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Artist description:
I finally finished it QuQ (even thought I wanted to add more things) I think I need to find a better way to color it (used more than 20 Layers) :DD
and for the koi I used this ref ( for the pattern) :DD
Java Draw Created Jul 10, 2011 338 x 470px Unless noted Copyright 2011 Baka95.
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Stunning! Real cool draw!~ Love the different elements here and how they all tie to gether!~ I love the different colors!`


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Pakistan Nuclear Power Plant in Karachi - Bad Idea
is deep in a power crisis. Quite aside from distressing domestic
consumers, the country's episodic and erratic electrical generating
capacity is also nobbling Pakistani exports. Endemic energy shortages
have crippled Pakistan's textiles industry, which account for 63 percent
of Pakistan's exports and whose mills employ 20 percent of the nation's
workforce. An example. In the past year half of Faisalabad's 250,000
power looms have gone out of business because of natural gas shortages,
which power the looms.…Read more...


text:
need a book Keeper!
This project received 51 bids from talented freelancers with an average bid price of $5 USD / hour.
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51Project Description
We are a small retail shop with an on-line presence and a few resellers. It is myself the owner, one employee and thinking about adding another. I need someone to take care of all the books expenses, sales tax, payroll ect.
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Chopped Onion Substitute
When there's no time to chop onions, onion powder is one option. Substitute 1 tablespoon of onion powder for one medium chopped onion. For the best onion flavor, use frozen chopped onions or dried minced onion (found in the spice aisle). One tablespoon of dried minced onion equals 1/4 cup minced raw onion.
© 2017 RDA Enthusiast Brands, LLC


text: Monte Redman Community banks keep focus By: Bernadette Starzee December 11, 2013 Comments Off on Community banks keep focus Uncertainty surrounding the economy, the government and interest rates are among myriad challenges facing community banks in 2014. Subscribe Login Print, Digital & Mobile1 Year$99 Digital & Mobile Only1 Year$99 Digital & Mobile Only1 Year$99 Print, Digital & Mobile1 Year$99 Print, Digital & Mobile1 Year$99----------Digital & Mobile Only1 Year$99 Email Address: Password: Already a paid subscriber but not registered for online access yet? For instructions on how to get premium web access, click here. Forgot your password? Share this:EmailPrintLinkedInFacebookTwitterGoogle Pages: 1 2 Astoria Federal Savings banking Bridgehampton National Bank community banks Economy Empire National Bank Finance Gold Coast Bank Government interest rates Law 6:36 am Wed, December 11, 2013 Long Island Business News Bernadette Starzee


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Award-winning writer Rita Dove boasts an impressive list of achievements. She is the creator of over ten books of poetry and fiction, including Thomas and Beulah which won the Pulitzer Prize when Dove...
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Rita Frances Dove (born 1952) is a poet, writer, and educator. In 1993, she became the youngest to hold the title of poet laureate of the United States Library of Congress.In announcing Rita Frances D...
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- share
H ere's a few-ingredient chicken feast that will satisfy the whole family—especially you, because it couldn't be any easier to get dinner on the table fast!
menu tips:
Keep It Simple
Keep It Simple
Add a steamed green vegetable such as broccoli or asparagus to tonight's easy (to make and love) dinner. Or, sauté kale, spinach, or Swiss chard for a quick—and delicious—fix of green.
Mix It Up in the MorningRather than halving the kugel recipe, make a whole batch and serve the leftovers for a break-from-the-cereal-routine breakfastthey can be quickly warmed up in the toaster oven.
Main Course
4/4 -
Browned Onion Kugels (halve recipe to serve 4)3.5/4 -
- share


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SoundCloud: share your rocking tunes in a super effective way (invites)
- 363
When you've read the interview with Media Futurist Gerd Leonhard a couple of weeks ago, you know there's a huge shift in music going on. The early adopters don't download music anymore, but listen to it on the web. These Last.fm lunatics and MySpace maniacs all ask the same question: why would we wait for a download to finish? They want to listen right a way. In this changed music landscape, people also prefer a different, faster, and better way of sharing. Well guys, welcome SoundCloud.
Founders Eric Wahlforss and Alexander Ljung
This Swedish/ German start-up allows you to share your own music with friends, fans, and possible fans – your could – and has made quite an effort to make this process as easy and intelligent as possible. No more cluttered emai boxes with large files, but a clean and good-looking place where your tracks are gathered. When you've used the – very smooth – uploading tool, you can publicize the music by using the embeddable player (there's a Facebook button as well). Then, the fun part starts, at least, I hope it's fun for you.
Ever been to a tech festival?
TNW Conference won best European Event 2016 for our festival vibe. See what's in store for 2017.
Your cloud can start fine tuning your music, literary, as it's possible to put comments on a music time line. No more endless conversations about where that strange little sound is, just put a dot there. I think music fanatics have enough material here to have fun for at least a week.
Is it all sunshine at SoundCloud? Well, for the user, the answer is almost yes. There's one thing though, I wonder whether your music library will be open. Can you download your tracks when you've accidentally lost your collection?
Apart from that, the main challenge for founders Alexander Ljung and Eric Wahlforss seems to be the business model. How will these guys make money? The service is in private beta, and so far, I can't discover any features that would grant these two Sweeds and their team any money. Though they probably will receive some high bills for data usage. I'm sure the angel founding they received in 2007 and 2008 will help to get them started, but I wonder how long they can cope with the – unavoidable – popularity.
However, they've got their corporate image, user interface, and killer app all pretty lined out, so I think I just have to trust these guys business instinct. Will you? Give it a shot and grab one of the fifty invites.
Read next: SecondBrain, definitely worth a second look


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Your logo is a graphic representation for your brand. Text and illustration come together to create a unique visual identity. At Modern Sugar we work with you to create a special, hip and modern logo that is an accurate reflection of your brand or style. We offer a full range of boutique identity and branding services. Contact us to learn how to brand your boutique and stand out from the crowd.
I was wondering your pricing for designing a logo?


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The reason why I haveso many is well explained in the quesadillas fajita style post, but the reasonwhy I use them so little is not, though judging from the pictures back then, I should make them again and post some decent ones where you can see all the good things inside that crunchy tortilla.
Anyway, tortilla issues aside, let me tell you a little about the marinated chicken here. It has a few important ingredients like lime juice and tequila. And a few tablespoons of the red chile jam.See the golden color? That´s the jam with all it´s sugary goodness and spicy flavor. All that punch makes it so versatile. A spoonful in a marinade, on a sandwichmixed with mayonnaise, as a dip for a quesadilla like I did today or in a pizza with goat cheese or queso fresco.
The marinade workswell with red meat too. And if you have an avocado, seve it with this quesadilla too as a side. Iparticularly don´t like putting avocados inside because I prefer to eat themcold, not warm.
Cinco de Mayo Appetizers & Sides {Aperitivos}:
- Chipotle Roasted Chickpeas from Home Cooking Memories
- Cinco de Mayo Tuna Pepper Poppers from Shockingly Delicious
- Elote (Mexican Grilled Corn) from Magnolia Days
- Esquites or Mexican Corn Salad from Kimchi Mom
- Grilled Corn on the Cob with Lime-Cayenne Butter from Healthy. Delicious.
- Guacamole Rice from Foxes Love Lemons
- Healthy Mexican Ceviche from Mama's Blissful Bites
- Loaded Cheesy Nachos from Gotta Get Baked
- Lobster Guacamole from I Run For Wine
- Roasted Garlic and Bacon Guacamole from Ruffles & Truffles
- Slow Cooker Chicken Con Queso from Daily Dish Recipes
Cinco de Mayo Main Dishes {Platos Principales}:
- Chicken Enchiladas with Avocado Cream Sauce from Bobbi's Kozy Kitchen
- Chicken Fajita Feta-ccine from Chocolate Moosey
- Chicken Fajita Salad w/Home made Easy Salsa from Momma's Meals
- Chicken Mole Potato Skins from Noshing with the Nolands
- Corona Beer-Battered Fish Tacos from Pescetarian Journal
- Duck Carnitas from The Girl in the Little Red Kitchen
- Enchiladas with Red Chili Sauce from Hezzi-D's Books and Cooks
- Fish Tacos with Lime Salsa from Curious Cuisiniere
- Japanese Mexican Tacos from Ninja Baking
- Lightened Up Taco Salad from Kudos Kitchen
- Mexican Pizza with Chipotle Orange Sauce from Family Foodie
- Oven Baked Beef, Bean, and Cheese Chimichangas from In The Kitchen With KP
- Pork Carnitas from From the Bookshelf
- Roasted Poblano and Corn Lasagna from Juanita's Cocina
- Shrimp Soft Tacos with Lime Dressing and Crunchy Vegetables from Crazy Foodie Stunts
- Slow Cooked Carne Asadas from Peanut Butter and Peppers
- Soft Shell Tacos from That Skinny Chick Can Bake
- Spicy Shredded Beef Chimichangas from Supper for a Steal
- Spicy Steak Fajitas from Cravings of a Lunatic
- Stuffed Poblano Peppers from Country Girl in the Village
- Tequila Lime Chicken from No One Likes Crumbley Cookies
- Tex-Mex Chopped Chicken Salad with Honey-Lime Dressing from The Weekend Gourmet
- Tofu Tacos from Hip Foodie Mom
- Yucatan Pollo Pibil and Corn Tortillas from MarocMama
Cinco de Mayo Desserts {Postres}:
- Dairy-free Flan from The Not So Cheesy Kitchen
- Dark and Spicy Chocolate Pots de Creme from Happy Baking Days
- Fried Ice Cream for a Crowd from Growing Up Gabel
- Luxuriously Healthy Chocolate Frosting from What Smells So Good?
- Mexican Brownies from Cindy's Recipes and Writings
- Paletas de Tamarindo (Tamarind Popsicles) from La Cocina de Leslie
- Peanut Mazapanes from Pies and Plots
Cinco de Mayo Drinks {Bebidas}:
- Fresh & Fruity Sangria from Webicurean
- Fruity Aguas Frescas from The Foodie Patootie
- Mango Aqua Fresca With Chia Seeds from Sue's Nutrition Buzz
- Margarona from The Messy Baker
- Tamarindo Drink (Agua de Tamarindo) from Basic N Delicious


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The objective of this K99/R00 award is to complete further training in female reproductive endocrinology, particularly translational studies in primary cell muscle cultures from women with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS), analyze, publish and present data collected during 2 pilot studies and complete the coursework required for the Masters of Science in Clinical Research program at Tulane University. During the R00 (independent phase) the PI will conduct a randomized controlled trial in obese women with PCOS to determine the effect of: a) exercise training, b) 25% dietary restriction c) metformin and d) no intervention (control group) on neuroendocrine function (pulsatile LH secretion), reproductive function (ovulation rate), ovarian morphology/function and insulin sensitivity. PCOS, an endocrinopathy characterized by excessive androgen production and reproductive dysfunction is the most common reproductive disorder in women of reproductive age. The etiology of PCOS is unclear. However abnormal neuroendocrine function and hyperinsulinemia are considered primary candidates involved in the development in PCOS. Weight loss is regarded as the choice treatment of infertility in overweight women with the condition. However it is not known if reproductive function is improved as a result of improving insulin sensitivity and/or reducing body weight. Preliminary studies conducted by the PI indicate that exercise, independent of weight loss, induces menstrual cyclicity in women with PCOS. Since exercise did not cause weight loss, we now hypothesize that the observed increase in insulin sensitivity may mediate the improvement in reproductive function rather than weight loss. In support of this hypothesis, our 16-week aerobic exercise study reduced fasting insulin and increased insulin-stimulated glucose disposal during a hyperinsulinemic euglycemic clamp. Furthermore, treatment of PCOS patients with insulin sensitizers improves both androgen excess and ovulatory function without weight change. The proposed randomized controlled trial will provide data to indicate possible mechanisms by which lifestyle modification can influence reproductive function in women with PCOS. It is hoped that further studies will then lead to the development of evidence based treatment programs for infertility in overweight women with PCOS.
Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) is the most common reproductive abnormality in premenopausal women. The prevalence of PCOS in the community is increasing in parallel with the rise in obesity. Weight loss by regular exercise and dieting is currently recommended in the treatment of the syndrome. The ability of these treatments to restore menstrual function and fertility in some women is not known.
Heymsfield, S B; Gonzalez, M C C; Shen, W et al. (2014) Weight loss composition is one-fourth fat-free mass: a critical review and critique of this widely cited rule. Obes Rev 15:310-21 |
Thomas, Diana M; Martin, Corby K; Redman, Leanne M et al. (2014) Effect of dietary adherence on the body weight plateau: a mathematical model incorporating intermittent compliance with energy intake prescription. Am J Clin Nutr 100:787-95 |
Covington, Jeffrey D; Tam, Charmaine S; Pasarica, Magdalena et al. (2014) Higher circulating leukocytes in women with PCOS is reversed by aerobic exercise. Biochimie : |
Gilmore, L Anne; Ravussin, Eric; Bray, George A et al. (2014) An objective estimate of energy intake during weight gain using the intake-balance method. Am J Clin Nutr 100:806-12 |
Thomas, Diana M; Gonzalez, M Cristina; Pereira, Andrea Z et al. (2014) Time to correctly predict the amount of weight loss with dieting. J Acad Nutr Diet 114:857-61 |
Frost, Elizabeth A; Redman, Leanne M; de Jonge, Lilian et al. (2014) Interaction between dietary fat and exercise on excess postexercise oxygen consumption. Am J Physiol Endocrinol Metab 306:E1093-8 |
Tam, Charmaine S; Frost, Elizabeth A; Xie, Wenting et al. (2014) No effect of caloric restriction on salivary cortisol levels in overweight men and women. Metabolism 63:194-8 |
Johansson, Julia; Redman, Leanne; Veldhuis, Paula P et al. (2013) Acupuncture for ovulation induction in polycystic ovary syndrome: a randomized controlled trial. Am J Physiol Endocrinol Metab 304:E934-43 |
Tam, Charmaine S; Xie, Wenting; Johnson, William D et al. (2012) Defining insulin resistance from hyperinsulinemic-euglycemic clamps. Diabetes Care 35:1605-10 |
Tam, Charmaine S; Covington, Jeffrey D; Ravussin, Eric et al. (2012) Little evidence of systemic and adipose tissue inflammation in overweight individuals(ýýý). Front Genet 3:58 |


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Updated on 26 February 2016
De-identified data from the 100,000 Genomes Project will be made available to approved researchers from industry
Singapore: ICON, a global provider of drug development solutions and services, has been selected by Genomics England as data management partner for the 100,000 Genomes Project.
A ground-breaking project announced by the British Prime Minister David Cameron in 2012, the 100,000 Genomes Project is sequencing 100,000 whole genomes from 70,000 National Health Service (NHS) cancer and rare disease patients and their families. It aims to demonstrate a new genomic medicine service for the NHS to support better diagnosis and more personalised treatments for patients. De-identified data from the 100,000 Genomes Project will also be made available to approved researchers from industry to help accelerate the development of new treatments and diagnostic tests that are targeted at the genetic characteristics of individual patients.
As Genomics England's data management partner, ICON will use its powerful data management capabilities, and understanding of the growing role genomics data will have in clinical trials, to validate clinical data from the 70,000 participating patients and their families. This work will take place within the secure Genomics England data environment.
"We are very proud that our genomics knowledge and our capabilities in securely managing large clinical and real world datasets have been chosen by Genomics England for such an important and transformative project," commented Professor Brendan Buckley, chief medical officer, ICON. "Our partnership with Genomics England demonstrates our commitment to partnering with industry and government organisations in new and innovative ways to improve patient care by accelerating the development of targeted and personalised medicines that tackle complex diseases. Genomics England's selection of ICON also reaffirms ICON as a trusted partner to government organisations as well as the world's top pharma, biotech and medical device companies."
James Peach, managing director for the 100,000 Genomes Project Main Programme at Genomics England said, "We are delighted to be partnering with ICON. Their renowned expertise in data management will be fundamental in driving scientific research and accelerating the return of results for NHS patients."
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« back to Power Tools, Hardware and Accessories forum
Forum topic by Mark | posted 03-26-2010 12:11 AM | 1533 views | 0 times favorited | 22 replies |
So today I was sanding my project away and when I went to grab a new sheet of my sandpaper (my personal preferance for sand paper) I was double checking the back of it to make sure it was the right grit when I noticed where she was made. Not in Canada, not the US, not china (for once), but it was made in Brazil! I was kinda offended when I noticed that. I am a fan of the sandpaper but not a fan of using foreign made material/equipment unless necessary. I think I'm due for a switch. Have you ever come across this kind of situation? (not specificly sandpaper) whats your input? -- M.K. |
22 replies so far
#1 posted 03-26-2010 12:20 AM |
I like a good product. Generally speaking, I'm willing to pay a fair bit more FOR a well-made product—one that performs as it should, and has a better-than-average service life. I appreciate—but generally am not particularly interested in paying for—a reasonable level of customer service. The old saying in retail: there's three components to selling a product: - price You get to pick TWO ;-) -- -- Neil |
#2 posted 03-26-2010 12:24 AM |
my sandpaper is made in Finland , where else . ( mirka ) . my new wife hasn't been made anywhere yet , evidently . my suv is made in japan , my house is built in America , -- david - only thru kindness can this world be whole . If we don't succeed we run the risk of failure. Dan Quayle |
#3 posted 03-26-2010 12:32 AM |
pls believe brazil sandpaper! -- measure once, keep cuttin' til it fits |
#4 posted 03-26-2010 12:36 AM |
o god dont start that again lol -- M.K. |
#5 posted 03-26-2010 12:42 AM |
Most of my tools in my shop are made in Taiwan, and U.S.A. I am huge on bang for the buck, and prefer U.S. produced products, and the closer to home the better, so for example, I will pay a little extra for red oak grown, harvested, milled, etc… in Texas than for stuff that has to get trucked in from Oregon… And I grew up in Oregon… But I want to keep my support as close to home as possible… -- My workshop blog can be found at http://daves-workshop.blogspot.com, YouTube Channel https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCoa-AgyeFWqnQfGIJwdzkog |
#6 posted 03-26-2010 01:02 AM |
Mark if it works I don't care where it is made, don't read the back of the paper |
#7 posted 03-26-2010 01:10 AM |
I can pretty much say that I never look on things to see where they are made. If I happen to see it, I only remark if it says "Made in the USA", and then I usually say something like "Hmmm, Imagine that". -- You can get more with a kind word and a 2 by 4, than you can with just a kind word. |
#8 posted 03-26-2010 01:14 AM |
Ya know….. I wished I had that much free time to study the back or sand paper then take the time to blog about it. -- Can't never could do anything, to try is to advance. |
#9 posted 03-26-2010 01:16 AM |
I love Klingspor sandpaper. It is made in Germany. -- Chip -----------http://www.penmanchip.com-----------------Micah 6:8 |
#10 posted 03-26-2010 02:47 AM |
lol…no problem jim! :P -- M.K. |
#11 posted 03-26-2010 03:23 AM |
When I was working as an engineer, I had to source some bearings. Made in USA, the cost was over $2 each, made in China they were $0.25 each. Tremendous pressure to go with cheap. My decision is always to buy made in USA, whenever possible. It keeps us employed, it keeps our factories open, and it helps keeps the trade (im)balance under control. |
#12 posted 03-26-2010 03:27 AM |
oh heck…if its a good product and you like how it performs..then get on with it…do the wood working…..... -- GRIZZMAN ...['''''] |
#13 posted 03-26-2010 03:41 AM |
exactly my point wdwrkr! grizzman: im surprised u didnt jump on me about my carving! lol dont wory its assembled and im finishing it tomoro! you'll see! -- M.K. |
#14 posted 03-26-2010 04:12 AM |
you go Mark….lol :P -- Can't never could do anything, to try is to advance. |
#15 posted 03-26-2010 03:19 PM |
Our govenrment here in Canada and the thousands of bureacrats that run it have interfered with manufacturing and producton at every opportunity . The are regualtions and rules far in excess of what other coutries abide by and to make things worse the manufacturers are taxed to death. Provincial taxes, federal taxes and the endless reams of reports to government . -- A mind, like a home, is furnished by its owner |
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Key-Alternating Ciphers in a Provable Setting: Encryption Using a Small Number of Public Permutations (Extended Abstract)
Publication: Research - peer-review › Article in proceedings – Annual report year: 2012
This paper considers—for the first time—the concept of key-alternating ciphers in a provable security setting. Key-alternating ciphers can be seen as a generalization of a construction proposed by Even and Mansour in 1991. This construction builds a block cipher PX from an n-bit permutation P and two n-bit keys k 0 and k 1, setting PXk0,k1(x)=k1⊕P(x⊕k0) . Here we consider a (natural) extension of the Even-Mansour construction with t permutations P 1,…,P t and t + 1 keys, k 0,…, k t . We demonstrate in a formal model that such a cipher is secure in the sense that an attacker needs to make at least 22n/3 queries to the underlying permutations to be able to distinguish the construction from random. We argue further that the bound is tight for t = 2 but there is a gap in the bounds for t > 2, which is left as an open and interesting problem. Additionally, in terms of statistical attacks, we show that the distribution of Fourier coefficients for the cipher over all keys is close to ideal. Lastly, we define a practical instance of the construction with t = 2 using AES referred to as AES2. Any attack on AES2 with complexity below 285 will have to make use of AES with a fixed known key in a non-black box manner. However, we conjecture its security is 2128.
Original language | English |
Title of host publication | Advances in Cryptology – CRYPTO 2012 : 32nd Annual Cryptology Conference, Santa Barbara, CA, USA, August 19-23, 2012. Proceedings |
Volume | 7417 |
Publisher | Springer |
Publication date | 2012 |
Pages | 45-62 |
ISBN (print) | 978-3-642-32008-8 |
ISBN (electronic) | 978-3-642-32009-5 |
State | Published - 2012 |
Event | 32nd Annual Cryptology Conference - CRYPTO 2012 - Santa Barbara, CA, United States |
Conference | 32nd Annual Cryptology Conference - CRYPTO 2012 |
Country | United States |
City | Santa Barbara, CA |
Period | 19/08/2012 → 23/12/2012 |
Series | Lecture Notes in Computer Science |
Volume | 7417 |
Download as:


text:
March 27th, 2013
The Genting Poker Series is celebrating its first female winner this week, after Polish poker pro Ellie Biessek hit the big time at the tour's newly added Newcastle-upon-Tyne main event.
Biessek walked away from the £400 buy-in poker tournament with an amazing first prize of £38,750, after seeing off strong competition from online pro Jamie Rutherford in a tense final heads-up battle. This latest win is her biggest to date, taking her lifetime earnings to well over £100,000.
The original field was made up of around 400 runners, making this one of the most hotly contested northern legs of the tour, and contributing to a hefty prize pool of £160,000.
Biessek had to battle long and hard throughout the event, which saw a number of leading poker pros, including Genting-sponsored Daiva Barauskaite, fall by the wayside.
The Polish winner, who usually works as a maths teacher in Winchester, said: "I am absolutely thrilled, very happy indeed. I didn't get aces or queens once during the whole tournament, but I ground it out and I always thought that the trophy had my name on it. As a mathematician, I am fascinated by numbers and that is why I love teaching and poker."
The next stop on the Genting Poker Series tour is Sheffield, with the tournament scheduled to kick off on 15th May. Online satellite qualifiers for the event are currently underway on Genting's website, so head over to Genting Poker today for your chance to qualify throughout the coming weeks. Live qualifier tournaments are also taking place in physical Genting Casinos across the country.
Genting Poker Series Newcastle Final Results:
Six Plus Hold'em is an exciting new spin on the conventional Texas Hold'em poker game. The most fundamental difference between Six Plus Hold'em and mo ... Read More
Are you one of the 300 million tweeters or one billion 'facebookers' worldwide? Do you enjoy a spot of poker action when you have the chance? Do you w ... Read More
888poker has revealed it will partner with the World Series of Poker (WSOP) Circuit to run online satellites ahead of an upcoming tournament in Brazil ... Read More
888poker keeps the streak of signing high-profile ambassadors alive with the signing of Chris Moorman, considered by many the most successful online p ... Read More
Grosvenor Poker's popular GUKPT Reading festival is set to get underway on 17th April, much to the delight of poker fans across the UK. If you're rari ... Read More
The 888poker family has been extended once again – this time with a World Cup winner. Denilson has inked a deal with the platform that will see him ta ... Read More


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Real stars fit for 'Dancing With The Stars'
Image: 1 of 13
"Dancing With the Stars" has a very misleading title.
Whenever ABC unveils the latest list of contestants for the show, the dance card is usually stacked with has-been actors, reality TV folk and washed-up athletes. So what's missing?
The stars.
More Coverage
Related Stories
Here is a list of the ultimate A-list "Dancing With the Stars" cast and why they would make such great contestants:
Which celebrity would you most like to see on 'Dancing With the Stars'?


text:
After 30 minutes i had completed the 400€ requirement and had 54.50€ in my balance, i tried to cash out the lot but it would only do whole euros so i ended up playing slots with the remaining 0.5€ :)
From one of our european members, bonus has increased to 100€. Bankroll change: -$55€
23 June 2007
Tried my luck at casino club, playing 2€ hands with 100€+ 100€Bonus went up to 260 and afterwards went down and down and down and down. Wasn't my lucky day. I was down to 36 € and went up again to 45€ where I ended up and withdrew.


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Answer to SyedReader comment on item: Finding Allah in Unlikely Places Submitted by Terry (Canada), Apr 7, 2008 at 14:37 In my opinion Islam is not that different than Judaism. In fact some of their dietary rules are very similar. My own feeling is that Islam adopted some of the worst aspects of Judaism while leaving out the more compassionate parts. If I read the Quran, will you read the Torah, or the Christian Bible. Terry Note: Opinions expressed in comments are those of the authors alone and not necessarily those of Daniel Pipes. Original writing only, please. Comments are screened and in some cases edited before posting. Reasoned disagreement is welcome but not comments that are scurrilous, off-topic, commercial, disparaging religions, or otherwise inappropriate. For complete regulations, see the "Guidelines for Reader Comments". << Previous Comment Next Comment >> Reader comments (508) on this item
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Performance wear for muscle efficiency, treat your body to adidas Techfit Climalite L/S Compression Base Layer.
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About this entry:
White Trees
The White Tree made by Yavanna for the Elves of the city of Tirion. From it came Celeborn, the White Tree of Tol Eressëa, through which it became the ancestor of all the White Trees of Númenor and Middle-earth.
Celeborn, Mindon Eldaliéva, Telperion, Tower of Ingwë, Tree of the High Elves, Tree of Tirion, Tree of Túna, White Tree of Númenor, White Tree of Tol Eressëa
For acknowledgements and references, see the Disclaimer & Bibliography page.
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Original content © copyright Mark Fisher 2002, 2011, 2016. All rights reserved. For conditions of reuse, see the Site FAQ.


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Wednesday, December 23, 2009
posted by Spencerblog at 9:42 PM
1 Comments:
I wonder if they are Christians. They certainly are trying to be christ like. Ironic that they live in a place called Champaign.Merry Christmas to all of my Christian friends on Spencerblog.
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Latest PostsCyber Bullying Facts
Please Share Your Cyber Bullying Stories!
Cyber Bullying Fact: More than 50% of all American teens have experienced cyber bullying. Have you experienced cyber bullying? Have your children or students asked you questions about cyber bullying? We would love for you to share your cyber bullying stories with us. We believe that by creating a list of personal experiences related to cyber bullying we can learn from them and pass that learning on to younger generations. If you were a victim, participant, or even the cyber bully we would like to hear your side. You can find the contact form on the right hand side of the page, or just click here to submit your cyber bullying story.


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I'm watching the X-Files series for the first time and I understand that Millennium and the Lone Gunmen series take place in the same universe and that both shows have crossover episodes in the X-Files series. Does anyone have a list or a link where they list all the episodes of X-Files, Millennium, and the Lone Gunmen in chronological order so I could watch all three series simultaneously as they take place? Or do I just watch X-Files season 4 and then Millennium season 1, etc.? Or is it better to watch Millennium and the Lone Gunmen after X-Files? I would prefer not doing the third option as I like watching everything in chronological order (like I've done with Star Trek, Stargate, and Babylon 5/Crusade).
Millennium doesn't really treat itself as a spin-off. As long as you see the Jose Chung episode in Millennium (second season) after the X-Files episode with Jose Chung, and finish the three seasons of Millennium before you see the X-Files episode "Millennium" (seventh season), you'll be all right. The Lone Gunmen takes place at the same time as the eighth season of the X-Files, but, tonally, it's so different from the X-Files that I would watch season eight of the X-Files, and then watch the Lone Gunmen. Watching season nine after that will allow you to enjoy it as the both the final season of the X-Files and as a show with more than a few references to the short-lived Lone Gunmen series.
Thanks for the response! I didn't realize there were two Jose Chung episodes so I'll make sure to watch the X-Files one first.
Right, I had forgotten about the movie. Watch it in between season five and six. It's a good, if not great, transition between the Vancouver and Los Angeles years. Another note about Millennium, though. The series is very dark, especially in the first year. Very, VERY dark. You might not want to watch a lot of episodes at once, so it might be easiest to alternate between the X-Files and Millennium. The other thing about Millennium is that it changes significantly in intention and tone every season, especially in the second year (which, outside of a handful of episodes, I loathe). You should be aware of this from the get go, so it doesn't catch you by surprise.
I'll probably watch 1 disc of Millenium and then one disc of X-Files (and so on). The first season of Millennium and the 4th season of X-Files take place at around the same time right? Thanks Hirogen Alpha and Ethros for your replies.
Yes, season four of the X-Files and season one of Millennium take place during the same time. And because I love making silly lists... X-Files 1 X-Files 2 X-Files 3 X-Files 4/Millennium 1 X-Files 5/Millennium 2 X-Files Movie (AKA "Fight the Future") X-Files 6/Millennium 3 X-Files 7 X-Files 8 The Lone Gunmen X-Files 9 X-Files: I Want to Believe
The series "Homicide: Life On The Streets" is also in the same universe as the X-Files, because of a crossover episode in which featured Detective Munch. Which also puts all of the "Law and Order" shows in the X-Files universe as well because of crossovers with Homicide. So to be complete, you need to watch all of those episodes of those shows as well. I can't help you with a chronology, though.
Watching Homicide and Law and Order, and all the other series that John Munch appears on just because of a fun cameo in "The Unusual Suspects" would be patently absurd. Just stick to the Chris Carter shows, methinks.
I didn't even notice how old this was. I was going to say, don't forget St. Elsewhere... Yes, X-Files is part of the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tommy_Westphall#The_Tommy_Westphall_Universe_Hypothesis BTW, Homicide: Life on the Street was a great show, one of the best cop shows I've ever seen. Worth it for that reason alone.
Even though that list is 7 years old it still holds up today. (AKA just ignore the last 6 episodes that are called season 10.)
If we're doing a real chronology, then someone should make a list of all the episodes that are remotely relevent to the ongoing plot, for those of us that would like a rewatch, but doesn't have time to watch 9 seasons.
Oh look, dead thread necrophilia. Do you mean just the episodes having to do with the alien conspiracy? Those are the "mythology/mytharc" episodes. Here's a list: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mythology_of_The_X-Files#Episodes I find the super soldier stuff toward the end of the series to be rather pointless, though. Kor


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Welcome to Student Support Services for the College of Science, Engineering and Technology (CSET). Our primary focus is to reinforce the education, outreach and research opportunities afforded to our students within CSET. By providing supplemental training and other educational activities, our students will be well equipped to collaborate with fellow colleagues around the world.
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Please take a moment to explore the opportunities available. It is our pleasure to assist you in achieving your educational and career goals.


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Checking Conditions
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Recipes > Entrées
BBQ Chipotle Beef Ribs
2 lbs. beef ribs
For Rub:
1/3 cup brown sugar
1 tsp. The Spice Hunter Chili Powder
1 tsp. salt
½ tsp. The Spice Hunter Tellicherry Peppercorn Fresh Twist Grinder
For Sauce:
1 bottle smoky bbq sauce
¼ cup orange marmalade
2 tsp. The Spice Hunter Chipotle Chile Pepper (or more if you like it hot)
1 Tbsp. Worcestershire sauce
To prepare sauce, combine all sauce ingredients in a saucepan. Let mixture come to a boil and then reduce and allow to simmer for 10 minutes. Make sure marmalade is mixed in sauce well. Remove from heat and allow to cool slightly. Preheat grill. In a small bowl combine all rub ingredients. Trim excess fat from beef ribs, cut into individual pieces, and coat well with rub. Place ribs on grill and allow to cook over medium-low heat for 1½ to 2 hours. Use half of the sauce to baste ribs every 15 minutes during cooktime. Serve remain sauce with the ribs and enjoy!


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"The Philippines is meeting 65 per cent of the world's need for vegetable oil. (But) the development of canola with 60 per cent lauric acid content makes it difficult for us to compete in the market, unless we're able to modify it through genetic engineering," Dr Rita P. Laude, gene discovery project leader at the university told the Manila Bulletin Online.
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"Three more genes- beta ketoacyl ACP synthase3, acyl carrier protein, and lysophos-phatidic acid acyltransferase - are needed in order to maximize increase in potential GM lauric acid content," said assistant professor Marni E. Cueno, who also works with Laude.
Today, soybean and palm oil combined account for over half of all oil consumed in the world. Canola is the third largest oil crop, reaching 15 million tons in 2004 but more expensive than the other two.


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Ayatollah ... Mohammad Taghi Mesbah Yazdi
The first point is that what I saw during this trip (Spain and Latin America), if I had
heard it before my trip, it would have been a legend to me, The Scenes which were
imaginable neither to Mr. Rabani nor others and I. Even if you watch the film, you cannot imagine the special mood of the people who were there.We usually visited different people from various groups there: the church's men,
men of various religions, as well as with academics and political men as well as radio
interviews, television and the press. Both academics and religious figures really
welcomed us, even I saw the things which I could not imagine before and I would not believe it if someone told me.
This was the behavior of a professor and assistant of a Christian University with an
Iranian Muslim clergyman. In Sao Paulo, a Cardinal was sitting beside me, while he
was holding my hand with one of his hands and pushed it with devotion, he laid his
other hand on his heart and said: (you are in my heart) and for a moment he did not
leave my hand. After the meeting, the old man came out and when we got on the car and left there he was still standing there and showing kindness .Buenos Aires city's churchman attended a meeting of Muslims, of descendants of Ali (peace be upon him) and he greatly expressed affection and then again he asked about my health by phone and he was kind to me. In the assembly of bishops of Goadalop, a bishop in his speech said: (real faith does not exist in the West. People in the region do not trust us. They don't obey our words .you're the ones who are true believers and also you could keep the unity of your country with your faith. We need to come and learn from you.) Importance of these remarks will be clearer when we note that he spoke in the assembly of the bishops not in a private one. This speech has no interpretation other than that they really feel that the church has been failed and cannot restore the faith of people and prevent ethical corruption and they only got hope for Islam. However, we did not encounter them badly, not to make them sad .we just insisted on the issues which they believed them too .we insisted on below issues :( wage a campaign against heresy) and (wage a campaign against moral corruption). They were so kind to me and sometimes they embraced me kindly that I have rarely seen this kind of cordial even among my friends .An priest showed round the
church to us in Guadalap. When we wanted to separate and while we were being
filmed, he said to me: (let me hug you), and he hugged me for a while and said : (we cannot do anything for that). It is you who must be a standard-bearer in monotheism and fighting against corruption and deviation). I personally did not believe such a region exists in the world that its people are interested in Islam and the Islamic Republic of Iran, but that's what I saw with my own eyes. Maybe you do not believe. In Last night of my residence in Buenos Aires, a Chief of Supreme court in Buenos Aires, who was formerly a head of the University and now he is a professor of law at the University, invited me to speak about family's rights from Islamic standpoint. The hall was crowd and people thronged around the hall .He said: close the door to prevent the uproar. More than 90 percent of participants were female professors and students. In discussion of the rights of families from the standpoint of Islam, the problems of differences between men and women's rights, inheritance and such things were discussed. God had mercy that we started with an introduction and finished in a way that all of them were clapping for a few minutes and this professor who was the Chief of Supreme Court was clapping too. I asked them to stop clapping ,not to make me ashamed ,but they were clapping for a few other minutes .This old man embraced me
right there ,and kissed me and signed a diploma of honor and gave it to me and said:
(Wish you came here for a few more sessions and gave a speech). Many people who had not seen people like our figures and clothes, often when they saw us, stopped and laughed at us. Those who laughed at us before the meeting, after the meeting, came and wanted to kiss our hands .In one of these scenes, a female student came forward among the crowd by pressure and stood beside me, raised her hand to ask permission to speak. I asked what she wants to say, Translators said that she says: (I do not know how to express my feelings; I just want to say; thank you very much.)
The conclusion which we want to reach has two points: One is that all these things
that their brief list was expressed, a seminarian of Qom has done. Fifteen years ago,
Mr. Rabbani who graduated from the DAR RAHE HAGH Institute-went to Argentina
and the activities which has done so far, is because of his efforts .He has expanded
Islam not only in Argentina but also in all Spanish-speaking countries and even Spain
.He has also trained some seminarians of Qom and sent to various cities. This is an
achievement of a seminarian of Qom; it is a wide range of a seminarian's activity that
can do in the world. He does not have an extraordinary power .This is effort and
sincerity that has created such scenes and such insight about Islam and the Islamic
So the first thing to know is that each of you can do it too. If you make an ambition
and have devotion, God also helps you and blesses your work and the sacred heart of
Imam Mahdi (PBUH) will be happy and pleased with your attempt; Second, we will
be more responsible by this field of acceptance that all classes of people in the world
from religious men to college classes and other people, have.
During this time, in these countries a number of people became Muslim as the
result of the effective ads. People like Mr. Khulyan Zapata (Ali Reza) who is a young
academic and it is for five years since he has became a Muslim .He has been in the
service of Mr. Rabbani for a few months and somehow has learned Islamic cultures
and now Columbia Universities and other scientific centers invite him to give a
speech. He does not attend in these places by force and does not impose himself on
people but universities invite him and are ready to bear high costs in his lecture.
Amount of his religious education goes back to the a few months when he was in
the service of Mr. Rabbani. Of course, he studies hard, he is very active and he seems
as a compact energy. He showed me several programs. Sometimes he organized the
programs from morning to noon, four or five programs of a radio interview, inviting
parliament members to lecture in universities, questioning and answering and he
declared: if you stay, I will set the program in 60 universities for you.
In Cuba - a country that is Marxist and have labored for decades to remove religion
completely from society and somehow they have succeeded - a university professor
knelt in front of me twice ,and kissed my hand and said: (pray for my parents ,please
give me a Quran in Spanish).
What did he want us to do and what did we have for him? This Professor who was
a male Marxist, ardently praised Islam and Iran in front of the assistant Professor and
the other professors and when he wanted to describe Imam, he became emotional and
no longer able to control himself. He said: (I want to have a research on a mysterious
All the various academic and church officials who we visited, showed their love to
Imam, knew Imam as the epitome of sincerity ,and they had been interested in Islam
for his sake and among the Islamic classes they had been interested in Shi'ism;
because they had believed that he did not work for his interests. When a Christian and
a cardinal show their love to Imam, how can we explain it?
However, these feelings more or less exist in other countries, the fact is that I have
traveled to many countries but I had not seen such scenes anywhere .The people who
live there, are good-natured that they speak frankly. If they believe something, they
accept that they believe it and if they do not believe something, they accept that they
do not believe it. Despite the serious cultural differences between their customs and
Islamic teachings, especially in women's issues, while we were talking about these
issues and were criticizing them, or finding them guilty, they were clapping cheerfully, and showed their love to us.
A Christian student and a Jewish student participated in Guadalupe's lecture .First
the Jewish student spoke and then the other who was Christian, said: (I do not flatter,
I do not claim in front of you, but I have seen the light of God with you during these
two nights when you gave a speech in this college). It was a lot of such interpretation;
even some priests and bishops said: (God have sent you here to restore his religion.)
The petitions were just for giving a message which I took from this trip. I request
you that first realize the worth of Islam and then study how much field of activity is
in the world, and what a great responsibility we have.
1 - Buenos Aires
2 - Guadalupe
* Derived from the book of Welcome the Sun's West, the work of Ayatollah Mesbah
Yazdi, Publication of Educational and Research Institute of Imam Khomeini (God
bless him)


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In my younger years, I was a fan of pro wrestling, okay, so maybe I still watch every now and again. One of the most popular wrestlers of the past 20 years was "The Rock", and he would come out and yell, "Can you smell what the Rock is cooking!" Well that line always got me going, and in the spirit of the Rock, I am here to ask you this, "Can you smell what The Hendry is cooking!" Can you smell it, I hope so, it is the smell of excitement.
The off-season means the previous season is mercifully over, it means that it is time for a fresh start, it means that 'Next Year' is just that much closer. For months baseball pundits have discussed the Cubs needs and the fans have discussed the Cubs wants. This is the issue, where is Hendry going to land. Last off-season he addressed two glaring deficiencies in the bullpen and the leadoff spot and he paid a good deal to achieve the goal. If Hendry is as successful fixing the starting rotation as he was with the bullpen, he will make me happy. With only two viable Major League starters coming back (Zambrano and Hill) and possibly two former pitchers (Miller and Prior), Hendry has to sign at least one, if not two quality Major League starters.
As for the offense, we need a bat, and we may need a centerfielder, in fact, we may also need a third baseman. If he secures the hot corner, he has done something, but he gave up Ricky Nolasco to get JP. If JP walks away, Mr. GM looks awful, so count on "The Hendry" to sign Pierre for a few more years. After all of that the Cubs are still the same offensive ball club. Soriano, C. Lee, Marcus Giles, these are just a few names continually posted on this site. The Hendry has so many options, who knows what will happen and that is why it is cool. We don't know what will happen, because for the past four and a half months, we knew what was going to happen, the Cubs were going to lose. Now, we can read the baseball blogs and listen to the sports shows and hope and dream of the next big Free Agent signing or a blockbuster deal. Anyone else smell a 'sign and trade' involving A-Ram for A-Rod?
Now that a putrid, nauseating, vomit-covered, despicable and pathetic season comes to a long awaited end, it is time to move upward and onward. There are only four and a half months left before pitchers and catchers report and by my watch that means we have 135 days of rumors and reports to anticipate. Heck, the convention is less than four months away and you know Hendry has to have something done by then, if not, count on a mysterious absence. I take that back, don't count on it because it will not happen. Though he has failed, Hendry has never made excuses. He stepped up, said he did not do nearly enough, and moved forward. He avoided an awful scene this summer by not firing Baker, and he unloaded Walker, Maddux and Nevin at the deadline. In one of those deals he got a man who could start at SS for the next 10 years. Even though I am standing up for him, this is his last chance, which is why I am so excited to see what happens. This winter, while you are sitting around on a Tuesday night, if you catch a whiff of that sweet smell emanating from the kitchen, hop on your computer, pull up the CCO and see how the Cubs just got better. It may not happen this Tuesday or next, but there are plenty of Tuesdays to go until Spring!
Thanks for reading, feel free to drop me a line at [email protected], and until next time….
Stay Classy Cubs Fans!!!