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Big thanks to Sentry for the Joes w13 stash this morning. Blowtorch is definitely the best of the lot. Not much else I'm looking for right now.
UPDATE: Lots of new Comic Packs are "In Stock" at HTS. Don't forget HOLIDAY25 coupon.
Big thanks to Sentry for the Joes w13 stash this morning. Blowtorch is definitely the best of the lot. Not much else I'm looking for right now.
UPDATE: Lots of new Comic Packs are "In Stock" at HTS. Don't forget HOLIDAY25 coupon.
Tomorrow (Fri.) only ACME website is having a 25% sale ironically with Hasbro's same code HOLIDAY25. Enjoy.
Now for the more important news & sorry for the short notice:
For the LA/OC area:
Death Star Sale 2!!!!!!!!!!
When: this Sat. 12/13 8am - 1pm
Where: Exit the 5 or 405 at Bake Pkwy. Left on Bake, follow it to Trabuco. Look for directional signs at Trabuco & Bake, Lake Forest, CA
What: Star Wars, Star Trek, Simpsons, Legos, Halo, etc.
This will be the garage sale format. Hopefully that will attract more visitors. Loads of SWs. I personally will bring my endor AT-AT, GG shocktrooper bust, KB ROTS Collector's 9 pack, carded & loose figures and more.
Why: To get great deals on gifts for the family, friends, and yourself!!! It is the will of the force.
Last edited by bikerscout; 12-12-2008 at 05:26 AM. Reason: better info
Huh. I'm originally "from" that area. I moved there when I was 5 and lived there until I was 15.
I'm in San Diego now - and I don't need any "old stuff" (pre-2008 toys).
I'm all up-to-date (though I might buy 1 more complete "mint" KENNER Death Star playset from 1979 - or another Rebel Transport craft from 1981). 3 Twin-Pod Cloud Cars (one day) but I will wait to see if Hasbro updates this vehicle finally - perhaps with launching missiles. Then I'd want the new ones!
I went to Toys R Us today.
I saw a lady on the phone talking to someone about Star Wars for a purchase for a kids' present. She ended up buying an ARC-170 and V-19. She was looking at Lego Star Wars, too - but opted for Hasbro. I think she thought the Lego stuff was too expensive.
Another lady was with her son and told him that he had to wait for Christmas, but that today he could have ONE Star Wars action figure. I didn't see what he picked out.
But the giant whole store front is still ALL Star Wars - just like it was nearly 6 months ago when I took Slicker to my Toys R Us - and it was probably just like it was set up when SirSteve and JediTricks were here. It's cool to see Star Wars so mainstream, still. However, all the stuff is repetative stuff of what most of us bought on July 26.
Toys R Us did have this Clone Trooper multi-pack and Battle Droid multi-pack. They came with all differently painted troopers and droids (1 Gonk Droid was in the mix, too). I have no use for that stuff, but a kid would probably find it fun. On the back of the box, they had special assignments for each type of character included. Marketing made an effort.
At Target (La Cienega) today, the Indiana Jones figures were on clearance for $3.80. It looks like they even put out the Last Crusade wave.
Darth Vader is becoming the Mickey Mouse of Star Wars.
Kylo Ren - came from Space Brooklyn, although he moved to Space Williamsburg before it was trendy.
The use of a lightsaber does not make one a Jedi, it is the ability to not use it.
Reminder to check us out Saturday (today!) for DS Sales Plan 2!!!. Read 5 posts back for info. Thanks!!!!!
I thought about buying the Indy toys because they are all on clearance now and offered up so cheap. The Target battle packs (Cairo and the LC Tank) are especially tempting. But honestly - even if someone GAVE them to me - where am I going to dedicate any space to them?
I'm turning down Batman stuff for the same reason.
Star Wars, Star Trek, Transformers, Terminator - and I don't forsee having any other room for anything else, even when I have my large dream home.
As a matter of fact: I'll be carefully considering whether I'll buy any new movie Trek or Terminator stuff in 2009. As to Transformers: ROTF - I'll be carefully selective. I want a Leader Class Starscream to be made, though.
Star Wars? I'm filling in my dioramas and not buying Clone Wars.
For all you Lego guys, I found the new Indy Flying Wing and SW ATT and Clone Trooper BP at Monrovia TRU today. Best part was that they rang up at the suggested retail price. No extra dollar or two markup that TRU usually charges. I'd normally get them at the Lego store, but they've been getting these new sets much later than TRU and just couldn't wait.


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Skil 4V iXO Cordless Palm-Sized Screwdriver
Skil gives you a handy and compact tool to take care of minor household tasks with this iXO 4 Volt Max Palm-Sized Screwdriver (2354-01). It accepts the full charge anytime without memory effects while the li-ion battery can hold a charge up to 18 months. Conveniently small and easy to handle, the forward/reverse LED indicator shows drilling direction. It also has a SiteLight LED work light for better visibility.
- Ideal for household tasks
- 4V Max power with 20% longer run time
- Compact, powerful and lightweight
- SiteLight LED work light for better visibility
- Forward/reverse LED indicator shows drilling direction
- Lithium-ion power battery holds charge up to 18 months
In The Box
- One (1) iXO 4 Volt Max Palm-Sized Screwdriver
- One (1) 5-Piece Bit Set
- One (1) Charger

subset: commoncrawl


text:
Track Hindprint 1 1/4 - 1 5/8" (33-40)mm long. Prints left by front and hind feet may perfectly overlap, leaving the impression of alternating single prints. Trail of running animal shows hindfeet registering ahead of front feet.
Sign Stick houses concealed in crevices or abandoned buildings. Cup-shaped nest of fibrous plant materials, sometimes roofed over, is within house.
Scat: Piles of fecal pellets on ledges; black tar-like accretions of older fecal material and white calcareous encrustations from urine often in evidence on cliff faces.


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The demand is there, especially in our area for CNG because folks around here understand the oil and gas business and the massive reserves we have inland, underground.
I've been very critical of government interference in what the private sector should be doing. But, until the Feds do get out completely, stop proping up trash like Ethanol etc., a little government help is in order. And, if the government would get out of trying to pick winners, speculating on different companies and leave it to the private sector, there is enough critcal mass supporting CNG from the private sector to get this industry rolling down the road.


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Web Stories
Symposium to focus on immigration, Nov. 7
Posted November 4, 2002; 04:03 p.m.
Princeton's Center for Migration and Development will sponsor a symposium intended to promote dialogue between immigration experts and policy makers on Thursday, Nov. 7. The event will begin at 5 p.m. in 104 Computer Science Building.
Titled "Beyond Smoke and Mirrors," the symposium will focus on issues raised by Douglas Massey in a book he recently co-wrote, "Beyond Smoke and Mirrors: Mexican Immigration in an Era of Economic Integration." Massey earned his Ph.D. in sociology from Princeton in 1978 and currently is a professor of sociology at the University of Pennsylvania.
Sharing the podium with Massey will be: Frank D. Bean, professor of sociology at the University of California-Irvine; Doris Meissner, former commissioner of the U.S. Immigration and Naturalization Service and current senior fellow at the Migration Policy Institute; Harley Shaiken, director of the Center for Latin American Studies at the University of California-Berkeley; New Jersey Assemblyman Reed Gusciora; and Ohio Congressman Tom Sawyer.
Among the issues to be discussed are the effect of immigration policies on American and foreign workers; the factors behind the deaths of hundreds of undocumented Mexicans who try to enter the United States every year; the repercussions of the North American Free Trade Agreement on immigrant flows and immigration policy; and the future of immigration and immigration laws post-Sept. 11.
The event is free and open to the public, but reservations are required. To reserve a place, send an e-mail to email@example.com or call 609-258-3612. Co-sponsors of the event are the Center for Human Values, Center of International Studies, Council on Regional Studies, Office of the President, Program in Latin American Studies, Fields Center for Equality and Cultural Understanding, and Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs.
Contact: Lauren Robinson-Brown (609) 258-3601


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8.12: Applications of Exponential Functions
Applications of Exponential Functions
For her eighth birthday, Shelley's grandmother gave her a full bag of candy. Shelley counted her candy and found out that there were 160 pieces in the bag. As you might suspect, Shelley loves candy, so she ate half the candy on the first day. Then her mother told her that if she eats it at that rate, the candy will only last one more day—so Shelley devised a clever plan. She will always eat half of the candy that is left in the bag each day. She thinks that this way she can eat candy every day and never run out.
How much candy does Shelley have at the end of the week? Will the candy really last forever?
Let's make a table of values for this problem.
You can see that if Shelley eats half the candies each day, then by the end of the week she only has 1.25 candies left in her bag.
Let's write an equation for this exponential function. Using the formula , we can see that is 160. The number of candies she starts out with and is , so our equation is
Now let's graph this function. The resulting graph is shown below.
So, will Shelley's candy last forever? We saw that by the end of the week she has 1.25 candies left, so there doesn't seem to be much hope for that. But if you look at the graph, you'll see that the graph never really gets to zero. Theoretically there will always be some candy left, but Shelley will be eating very tiny fractions of a candy every day after the first week!
This is a fundamental feature of an exponential decay function. Its values get smaller and smaller but never quite reach zero. In mathematics, we say that the function has an asymptote at ; in other words, it gets closer and closer to the line but never quite meets it.
Problem-Solving Strategies
Remember our problem-solving plan from earlier?
- Understand the problem.
- Devise a plan – Translate.
- Carry out the plan – Solve.
- Look – Check and Interpret.
We can use this plan to solve application problems involving exponential functions. Compound interest, loudness of sound, population increase, population decrease or radioactive decay are all applications of exponential functions. In these problems, we'll use the methods of constructing a table and identifying a pattern to help us devise a plan for solving the problems.
Real-World Application: Investing Money
Suppose $4000 is invested at 6% interest compounded annually. How much money will there be in the bank at the end of 5 years? At the end of 20 years?
Step 1: Read the problem and summarize the information.
$4000 is invested at 6% interest compounded annually; we want to know how much money we have in five years.
Assign variables:
Let time in years
Let amount of money in investment account
Step 2: Look for a pattern.
We start with $4000 and each year we add 6% interest to the amount in the bank.
The pattern is that each year we multiply the previous amount by the factor of 1.06.
Let's fill in a table of values:
We see that at the end of five years we have $5352.90 in the investment account.
Step 3: Find a formula.
We were able to find the amount after 5 years just by following the pattern, but rather than follow that pattern for another 15 years, it's easier to use it to find a general formula. Since the original investment is multiplied by 1.06 each year, we can use exponential notation. Our formula is , where is the number of years since the investment.
To find the amount after 5 years we plug into the equation:
To find the amount after 20 years we plug into the equation:
Step 4: Check.
Looking back over the solution, we see that we obtained the answers to the questions we were asked and the answers make sense.
To check our answers, we can plug some low values of into the formula to see if they match the values in the table:
The answers match the values we found earlier. The amount of increase gets larger each year, and that makes sense because the interest is 6% of an amount that is larger every year.
Real-World Application: Population
In 2002 the population of schoolchildren in a city was 90,000. This population decreases at a rate of 5% each year. What will be the population of school children in year 2010?
Step 1: Read the problem and summarize the information.
The population is 90,000; the rate of decrease is 5% each year; we want the population after 8 years.
Assign variables:
Let time since 2002 (in years)
Let population of school children
Step 2: Look for a pattern.
Let's start in 2002, when the population is 90,000.
The rate of decrease is 5% each year, so the amount in 2003 is 90,000 minus 5% of 90,000, or 95% of 90,000.
The pattern is that for each year we multiply by a factor of 0.95
Let's fill in a table of values:
Step 3: Find a formula.
Since we multiply by 0.95 every year, our exponential formula is , where is the number of years since 2002. To find the population in 2010 (8 years after 2002), we plug in :
Step 4: Check.
Looking back over the solution, we see that we answered the question we were asked and that it makes sense. The answer makes sense because the numbers decrease each year as we expected. We can check that the formula is correct by plugging in the values of from the table to see if the values match those given by the formula.
Solve Real-World Problems Involving Exponential Growth
Now we'll look at some more real-world problems involving exponential functions. We'll start with situations involving exponential growth.
The population of a town is estimated to increase by 15% per year. The population today is 20 thousand. Make a graph of the population function and find out what the population will be ten years from now.
First, we need to write a function that describes the population of the town.
The general form of an exponential function is .
Define as the population of the town.
Define as the number of years from now.
is the initial population, so (thousand).
Finally we must find what is. We are told that the population increases by 15% each year. To calculate percents we have to change them into decimals: 15% is equivalent to 0.15. So each year, the population increases by 15% of , or .
To find the total population for the following year, we must add the current population to the increase in population. In other words, . So the population must be multiplied by a factor of 1.15 each year. This means that the base of the exponential is .
The formula that describes this problem is .
Now let's make a table of values.
Now we can graph the function.
Notice that we used negative values of in our table of values. Does it make sense to think of negative time? Yes; negative time can represent time in the past. For example, in this problem represents the population from five years ago.
The question asked in the problem was: what will be the population of the town ten years from now? To find that number, we plug into the equation we found: .
The town will have 80,911 people ten years from now.
Real-World Application: Compounding Interest
Peter earned $1500 last summer. If he deposited the money in a bank account that earns 5% interest compounded yearly, how much money will he have after five years?
This problem deals with interest which is compounded yearly. This means that each year the interest is calculated on the amount of money you have in the bank. That interest is added to the original amount and next year the interest is calculated on this new amount, so you get paid interest on the interest.
Let's write a function that describes the amount of money in the bank.
The general form of an exponential function is .
Define as the amount of money in the bank.
Define as the number of years from now.
is the initial amount, so .
Now we have to find what is.
We're told that the interest is 5% each year, which is 0.05 in decimal form. When we add to , we get , so that is the factor we multiply by each year. The base of the exponential is .
The formula that describes this problem is . To find the total amount of money in the bank at the end of five years, we simply plug in .
Solve Real-World Problems Involving Exponential Decay
Exponential decay problems appear in several application problems. Some examples of these are half-life problems and depreciation problems. Let's solve an example of each of these problems.
A radioactive substance has a half-life of one week. In other words, at the end of every week the level of radioactivity is half of its value at the beginning of the week. The initial level of radioactivity is 20 counts per second.
Draw the graph of the amount of radioactivity against time in weeks.
Find the formula that gives the radioactivity in terms of time.
Find the radioactivity left after three weeks.
Let's start by making a table of values and then draw the graph.
Exponential decay fits the general formula . In this case:
is the amount of radioactivity
is the time in weeks
is the starting amount
since the substance losses half its value each week
The formula for this problem is or . To find out how much radioactivity is left after three weeks, we plug into this formula.
Example 1
The cost of a new car is $32,000. It depreciates at a rate of 15% per year. This means that it loses 15% of each value each year.
Draw the graph of the car's value against time in year.
Find the formula that gives the value of the car in terms of time.
Find the value of the car when it is four years old.
Let's start by making a table of values. To fill in the values we start with 32,000 at time . Then we multiply the value of the car by 85% for each passing year. (Since the car loses 15% of its value, that means it keeps 85% of its value). Remember that 85% means that we multiply by the decimal .85.
|Value (thousands)
Now draw the graph:
Let's start with the general formula
In this case:
is the value of the car,
is the time in years,
is the starting amount in thousands,
since we multiply the amount by this factor to get the value of the car next year
The formula for this problem is .
Finally, to find the value of the car when it is four years old, we plug into that formula: thousand dollars, or $16,704 if we don't round.
Solve the following problems involving exponential growth.
- Nadia received $200 for her birthday. If she saves it in a bank with a 7.5% interest rate compounded yearly, how much money will she have in the bank by her birthday?
- Suppose again that Nadia received $200 for her birthday. But what if she saves it in a bank, also with a 7.5% interest rate, but this bank compounds compounds quarterly - how much money will she have in the bank by her birthday?
- The population of a city grows 15% each year. If the town started with 105 people, how many people will there be in 10 years?
- Half-life: Suppose a radioactive substance decays at a rate of 3.5% per hour.
- What percent of the substance is left after 6 hours?
- What percent is left after 12 hours?
- The substance is safe to handle when at least 50% of it has decayed. Make a guess as to how many hours this will take.
- Test your guess. How close were you?
- Population decrease: In 1990 a rural area has 1200 bird species.
- If species of birds are becoming extinct at the rate of 1.5% per decade (ten years), how many bird species will be left in the year 2020?
- At that same rate, how many were there in 1980?
- Growth: Janine owns a chain of fast food restaurants that operated 200 stores in 1999. If the rate of increase is 8% annually, how many stores does the restaurant operate in 2007?
- Investment: Paul invests $360 in an account that pays 7.25% compounded annually.
- What is the total amount in the account after 12 years?
- If Paul invests an equal amount in an account that pays 5% compounded quarterly (four times a year), what will be the amount in that account after 12 years?
- Which is the better investment?
- The cost of a new ATV (all-terrain vehicle) is $7200. It depreciates at 18% per year.
- Draw the graph of the vehicle's value against time in years.
- Find the formula that gives the value of the ATV in terms of time.
- Find the value of the ATV when it is ten years old.
- The percentage of light visible at meters is given by the function .
- What is the multiplication factor?
- What is the initial value?
- Find the percentage of light visible at 25 meters.
- A person is infected by a certain bacterial infection. When he goes to the doctor the population of bacteria is 2 million. The doctor prescribes an antibiotic that reduces the bacteria population to of its size each day.
- Draw the graph of the size of the bacteria population against time in days.
- Find the formula that gives the size of the bacteria population in terms of time.
- Find the size of the bacteria population ten days after the drug was first taken.
- Find the size of the bacteria population after 2 weeks (14 days).
Review (Answers)
To view the Review answers, open this PDF file and look for section 8.12.
Texas Instruments Resources
In the CK-12 Texas Instruments Algebra I FlexBook® resource, there are graphing calculator activities designed to supplement the objectives for some of the lessons in this chapter. See http://www.ck12.org/flexr/chapter/9618.
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|Bonefish, Tarpon, and other Obsessions Turquoise water, silver demons on the fly
|Topic Review (Newest First)
We've fished several times with guides in Exuma on the flats. Yes, there are the lemon sharks swimming amongst the casters. None ever bothered us. They DO try to eat the bonefish you've caught and are lifting with your flyrod in order to release them. If you're not careful, you could get bitten by them as you lift the bonefish out of the water so keep that in mind. If you poke the sharks with your rod, they will swim off. I've stayed at several lodges there and when speaking with the guests, none of them were hurt by the lemon sharks. One woman fisher was "bumped" by a shark but not hurt. The airport flats are loaded with bonefish as well as lemon sharks. Incoming tide will bring hundreds of bonefish to the mangrove flats. They are very spooky. But they are there.
Yes, from what I've been reading on the forums, the Exuma guides are getting 'testy" with the DIY flyfishers but that's to be understood as their living depends on guiding. But, it doesn't excuse rudeness to the DIY flyfishers just because they've found a way to fish on their own. After all, many waterside flats condos have been built, touting DIY bonefishing.....wouldn't we all love to just walk out from our condo to a bonefish flat? Believe me, the Exuma guides have plenty of flats to choose from while guiding clients on their flats boats. They don't need to fish the flats so near shore!
Exuma bones
Hi everyone,
I just got back from Exuma on the 18th. Stayed in Peace & Plebty Beach Inn. Accomodations were pretty good, good people at P&P. I would recommend it to anyone who wants to go there. My 8 year old nephew, wife and brother in law all caught their first bone on a fly on this trip.
We caught plenty of bones but they were mostly small. If you do go, get a guide the first day, tourism is the number 1 source of income it seems, so support your locals there. We went with Stevie Ferguson and we caught alot of bones with him even though it was windy. Once you've "paid your dues" by hiring a guide strike off some on your own like we did. (we actually tried to go with Stevie 3 days but only ended up hiring him for one day). The airport flat is a great place to fish, alot of bones there and we only say one shark, 7 footer, on that flat. My brother inlaw was standing in waist deep water (in a channel basically) when it appeared from no where, circled him once and disappeared. (pucker factor) He kept fishing....
I recommend that airport flat although you have to fish it on the end of the falling tide a beginning of the rise.
Caught almost all of our bones on light pink small clousers about 1 1/2 inches long.
My wife threw a fly at a 8 - 10 pounder that came up to her "mud" stirred up from walking slowly, must have thought she was a school or a ray. He took a look at the fly and circled once, took another look and slowly moved off up current. Nice fish though.
There are alot of areas to fish on your own but most are a pain to get to. The airport flat is the easiest and best flat.
For food visit Eddies, Palm bay, P&P, Bonefish lodge and Big D's on the north end. Big D's has the best view and good food. Conch salad was great.
I was there a year ago , got there by sailboat. When boats get to exuma they have to check in with the local customs people, so after we finished with the legal stuff I asked the customs agent about wading the island for bonefish,,,what a mistake, he literally exploded at me, he was spitting he was so mad,,told me over and over that it is illegal to fish on there land without a guide.. So anyway I did get a guide for a day, like I always do in a new area, had a great time with the guide, caught lots of bones.. Then I went out on my own and had an excellent time.. caught bone after bone up to six lbs.. The flat I concentrated on is between Rolleville, Barreterre and Hog island,,look on a chart and triangulate those three areas and you will see a big bay, at low tide the sand is dry out for at least six hundred yards where it drops off deep, walk out there and just back up and fish as the tide comes in,, great spot,,but as the other guys said you will have sharks coming in with the bones, right at your feet, the sharks follow you as you walk and stir the sand up so I stayed in shin deep water only, it is fairly deep at high tide so keep that in mind.. I tried to rent a boat to go to that side of the island,,no way would they do it. good luck.Just dont broadcast it that your DIY.
|We found the Bahama sound areas, but the wind which was out of the south, made it very choppy on the west side. I said in earlier post we fished 3 days, actually 6. We did run into an ugly guide who twice told us we had no business fishing on our own, but we just ignored him. The next time I do it, which may be March, I'd get a small boat and use it to get to the flats on the ocean side, rather than tied to the spots one can walk to. Also, a boat solves the problem of getting beyond the channel that surrounds the whole island.
Welcome bonehead!
I was hoping to hear a report, sounds like you had fun! Did you find any of the other locales I talked about, and how 'bout a report to knock off the chill?
Bonehead, you nailed it. We spent 3 days fishing in early Dec , most of that on the Airport Flat. I've never seen so many, and hard to catch, bones in my life. Finally figured it out near the end when I went to a light 15" leader, and small muted flies. Anything else spooked them. And the sharks - 5-7 footers - were all over the place, adding to the spookyness. Saw something I've never seen before, sharks working as a group o corral schools of bones.
We also found the fish on the east side to be more like bonefish, but not as many of them.
I went on a weeklong vacation/fishing trip a couple years ago to George Town. I fished with a great guide while I was down there and caught fish, but the greatest fishing for me was what I found by simply walking the beach while my friend knapped in the afternoons.
Fishing on the atlantic side I found nice schools of small fish as well as cruising singles and doubles. What struck me most was how aggressive the fish were there. Toss a Gotcha anywhere near them and you were on. In fact, the smallest fish were the hardest, being in such skinny water. The bigger cruisers (I got several over 5 pounds) were much easier.
Of course, before going I dutifully tied up the full compliment of bonefish flies, but (like the guide assured me) all I needed was a Gotcha in different sizes and weights. Flies with too much color didn't seem to work - although I did catch a few on chartreuse Clousers and pink Puffs.
One warning, I'd stay away from the flat locals call the Airport Flat (if I remember correctly). It was on the Caribbean side and was reached by a rough car ride down a terrible road. On low tide you can walk across the channel to a mangrove island surrounded by a beautiful flat. Large schools of bones congregate there on a rising tide... and so do the sharks. No joke. They aren't terribly large but they are very aggressive. Any fish bonefish hooked there immediately became live bait and if you did manage to get it away from the sharks long enough to land it, it never made it back to the school.
I fished there with the guide one day and, following some directions from locals, found it again on my own. Of course, didn't realize where I was going at the time, but as I stood there taking in the view from shore I realized I was staring at "shark flat".
Good luck and tight lines,
Bob -
Have we I got some inside skinny for you!
Contact me via Private Message (click on my name to get to the link). We had the DIY "knack" or maybe dumb luck
In any case quite satisfying. Eddie, another member, can also give you the skinny as well - he is friends with a guy who is quite connected in Georgetown.
It's a beautiful place... wish I were going!
I just stumbled across this board. Looks interesting.
Two buddies and I are going to Exuma in 3 weeks for some unguided bonefishing. We are staying at Master Harbor Villas, a few miles south of Georgetown. All 15 of my previous trips have been to established lodges (mostly Andros ) so this is a bit of an experiment. I hate to think we'll use much of our week figuring out what would have been better to know on day one, so any input here would be greatly appreciated.
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Europe ACCESS Global C-Haines Index +72 hour Chart
- location
- Africa
- Asia
- Europe
- New Zealand
- North America
- South America
About ACCESS Global
Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator (ACCESS). Based upon the UK Met Office Unified Model system. ACCESS G is the global numerical forecast model operated by the BoM. It is run twice daily (00Z and 12Z) and provides forecast data out to 240 hours with a horizontal resolution of 25km and 70 vertical levels.
Weather News
Victoria on track for wet April after wintry blast hits state
Parts of Victoria have already received almost double the average rainfall this month, and some areas have recorded the wettest April in 16 years.
Several weather systems set to pummel NZ
New Zealanders are bracing for a week of wild weather.
Smoke signals the burning of heavy stubble, a hangover of last year's record NSW crop
The skies above New South Wales farms have been filled with smoke in recent weeks as growers burn a huge load of dry stubble left over from last year's record crop yields.


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Little known fact: St. Patrick wasn't actually Irish. In fact, he was captured from Britain as a teenager by Irish raiders and taken to Ireland as a slave. He escaped eventually, but became an ordained bishop in the north and west of Ireland once he entered the Church. Largely known for chasing the snakes out of Ireland, we now celebrate this Patron Saint by drinking heavily on the day of his death. So, in honor of March 17th and St. Patrick, we bring you this gallery of 17 awesome fictional Irish characters. Slainte! More


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I took the plunge and bought a couple of mini Zingers. They arrived last week and I've been trying them out. I cannot consistently get them to sling a mallard or a pheasant Dokken without the Dokken hitting the Zinger frame. It seems like the pheasant Dokken, with its long plastic tail would be the toughest, but weirdly, yesterday I was having no trouble with the pheasant, while I couldn't get a single good toss with the mallard. Today, I couldn't get either one to work. I must have been doing something right with the pheasant yesterday, but I can't figure out what that was.
I'm usually putting them in the pouch with the wooden head dangling off the back of the pouch, but I've also tried the reverse, since that didn't seem to be working. Any suggestions would be appreciated.
On a more successful note (sort of) I loaded a frozen pigeon in one of the Zingers and attached the rubbers to the lowest hooks. Not such a great idea in a yard full of trees. Mr pigeon sailed up higher than the trees in the yard (which are about 30 ft) and came down through a birch about 30 yards away. :o I eventually found Mr pigeon, minus his head, which I figured was in the birch tree somewhere, but Maple located it right away when I was bringing her out for a trial run. :cool:


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| Breeze through the season with these makeup, skin, and hair tricks from top beauty professionals. - By Maria Ricapito
Summer throws up plenty of obstacles to keep you from looking your best: heat, humidity, blazing sun—and plenty of chlorine and salt water.
Not to worry! These makeup, skin, and hair tricks from beauty experts will help you breeze through the season in top form. Now all you need is a sarong!
(Getty Images)
| When you are sporting bare arms and short skirts, try some glimmer. For your face, pick a product with tiny sparkly particles, like Buxom Divine Goddess Luminizer ($28; sephora.com). Mix one part illuminator with two parts moisturizer in your palm and apply out from your nose, says Sadah Saltzman, hair and makeup pro at Salon AKS in New York City.
For your arms and legs, go with something light, like Josie Maran Whipped Argan Oil Illuminating body butter ($32; qvc.com). "Apply only on what you want to highlight," says Saltzman, "including your legs, collarbone and shoulders."
(Getty Images)
| Caribbean Sea shades look so summery. Apply Rimmel ScandalEyes Waterproof Kohl Kajal eyeliner in Turquoise ($5; at mass retailers) or Chanel Stylo Yeux Waterproof Longlasting eyeliner in Jade ($30; chanel.com) to the outer half of top and bottom lids.
Smudge into lashes with a cotton swab for a watercolor effect.
(Brian Henn)
| Opt for bright, sheer glosses; Estée Lauder Pure Color Sheer RollerGloss in Succulent ($19; esteelauder.com) has a metal ball tip that feels deliciously cool.
And if air-conditioning tends to dry out your lips, go for a hydrating balm such as Lancôme Baume in Love in Coral Electric ($26; lancome-usa.com).
For staying power, first fill in your pout with a long-wearing lip pencil, says New York City makeup artist Nick Barose.
(Getty Images)
| "Lots of mascara helps you get away with the bare minimum makeup," says Barose. Choose long-lasting waterproof versions such as Essence Stays No Matter What 24 Hour Waterproof Volume mascara ($5; ulta.com).
For extra smudge protection, dust translucent powder beneath lower lashes.
(Brian Henn)
| Define curls with hydrators, like the coconut oil and shea butter in Marc Anthony Strictly Curls Stretch ($8; at Walgreens).
Style straight hair by spritzing with a sea-salt texturizer: Victoria's Secret Beach Hair Wave spray ($12; victoriassecret.com).
(Getty Images)
| "Brightly colored cream blush paired with bronzer is a pretty and natural summer look," says Barose. Two-in-ones to try: Sonia Kashuk Chic Luminosity bronzer and blush duo ($13; target.com) and Tarte Park Ave Princess Bronze and Glow Matte bronzer and cheek tint ($32; sephora.com).
Swoosh on bronzer where sun rays would normally give you color (forehead, nose, chin and cheekbones). After you dot blush on cheeks, says Saltzman, "prevent telltale lines by blending upward in a circular motion instead of straight back."
(Brian Henn)
| Fake versions are healthier—and gorgeous. Products like Australian Gold Sheer Coverage Faces, SPF 45, with self-tanner ($9; australiangold.com) build up color over a few days and provide broad-spectrum coverage that lasts as long as sunscreen.
(Getty Images)
| Sun, chlorine and wind aren't kind to your strands. Your savior: oil you spritz on wet or dry hair to add moisture and glossiness.
Garnier Fructis Triple Nutrition Miracle Dry oil ($5; at mass retailers) is a weekend-bag must that can also do wonders for your skin or manicure.
| To avoid skin that's (horrors!) slick-shiny, wash with a cleanser that sops up grease, such as Olay Fresh Effects Shine, Shine Go Away Shine Minimizing cleanser ($7; at mass retailers).
Then apply mattifier to forehead, nose and chin; we like L'Oréal Paris Revitalift Miracle Blur Instant Skin Smoother finishing cream ($25; at mass retailers).
(Getty Images)
| "Scents based on citrus notes and fruit are very fresh and summery," says perfumer Celine Barel of International Flavors and Fragrances in New York City.
Try Escada Cherry in the Air perfume ($74; macys.com), which has notes of mandarin orange with black cherry on top. Refrigerate, spritz and be cool.
| Now complement that summer beauty with a slimming swimwear. Click here to see which styles fit your body type best.
Catch full episodes of "Running Wild."
15 states to live in if you want to get rich.
NFL players facing a make-or-break season.
New "Dancing with the Stars" cast revealed.
Cookout recipes to try out for Labor Day.
Catch "Keeping Up with the Kardashians."
The 10 worst places to start a business.
Greatest second-generation athletes.
Greatest superheroes to hit the silver screen.
Inside the craziest dorm rooms we've ever seen.


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|YourMechanic Price
|Shop/Dealer Price
|1987 GMC V2500V8-6.2L Diesel
|Service typeSerpentine/Drive Belt Replacement
|YourMechanic Price$82.84
|Shop/Dealer Price$100.57 - $121.09
|Service typeSerpentine/Drive Belt Replacement
|YourMechanic Price$93.19
|Shop/Dealer Price$113.58 - $141.92
Real customer reviews from GMC owners like you.
The serpentine/drive belt or v-belt is a rubber belt that connects the alternator, power steering, and AC to the part of the engine (crankshaft) which transfers the power from the engine to those components. Without this belt, the battery will not get charged and none of the electrical accessory components in the car will work. The serpentine belt and v-belt are also known as "drive belts." Because of the high amount of heat in the engine, the belt can develop cracks over time and eventually break. If the belt breaks, the steering wheel will be difficult to turn and driving will be hazardous. In some cars, water pumps are driven by the drive belts. If the belt breaks, water and coolant needed to keep the engine cool will not properly flow to the engine. The engine will overheat, potentially causing severe damage.


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Church and state should separate
Take down the nativity sets and cut off the public funding for religious groups. Separation is good for the state, but it's even better for the church, argues a Catholic lawyer.
By David Lysik, an attorney and visiting professor of religious studies at DePaul University in Chicago.
"Our varied beliefs can bring us together to feed the hungry and comfort the afflicted; to make peace where there is strife and rebuild what has broken; to lift up those who have fallen on hard times. This is not only our call as people of faith, but our duty as citizens of America, and it will be the purpose of the White House Office of Faith-Based and Neighborhood Partnerships."
With these words in February 2009, President Barack Obama signaled his continuation of a program George W. Bush placed at the heart of his 2000 compassionate conservatism campaign-taxpayer-funded faith-based initiatives. For many, Obama's action continued the erosion of the separation of church and state in the United States.
Indeed, the American constitutional principle of separation of church and state has found many detractors of late, both in politics and religion. A spate of cases about the public display of the Ten Commandments got an Alabama judge removed from the bench, to the outrage by many believers. Every holiday season features another religious leader denouncing the "war on Christmas" and enlisting the faithful to tear down the "so-called wall of separation," which is contrary to the nation's Judeo-Christian heritage.
It's true that the religion clauses of the First Amendment to the U.S. Constitution-"Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof"-do not include the language "a wall of separation." That metaphor comes from an 1802 letter from Thomas Jefferson to the Danbury Baptist Association in which Jefferson asserts that, taken together, the two clauses "build a wall of separation between church and state." As the Rev. Barry Lynn of Americans United for the Separation of Church and State likes to point out, the Constitution doesn't mention but still embodies "fair trial" as well.
Beyond the fact that the metaphor of "the wall" deftly summarizes a constitutional principle, it is also a natural fit for contemporary American Catholics. The reason: Separation most fully embodies Catholic teaching on faith and religious liberty, rooted in the dignity of the human person.
Vatican II's Declaration on Religious Liberty declares that "the human person has a right to religious freedom," meaning that "everyone should be immune from coercion by individuals, social groups, and every human power." The practice of religion consists of "voluntary and free internal acts by which human beings direct themselves to God." If civil authority "presumes to control or restrict religious activity, it must be judged to have exceeded the limits of its power."
In other words separation of church and state both respects the nature of religious faith and supports the maturation of religious liberty as described by the council. Religious institutions will breathe freer and thrive if government does nothing to entangle itself with religious ministries.
What does this separation mean on a practical level? Clearly, government cannot erect a state church. But from the point of view of the religious believer's best interest, to what extent should government promote and advance the ministry of religious institutions?
The most common point of contention on this issue relates to religious displays on public property, such as displays of nativity scenes or the Ten Commandments. While religious groups may initially be excited about seeing religious-themed artifacts erected with government support, there is a high price to pay.
The current legal criteria for evaluating whether such government-supported displays pass constitutional muster includes whether a fictitious so-called "reasonable observer" would understand the display as an endorsement of religion by the state.
And herein lies the rub: Anyone who sees life-size plastic models of Jesus in his manger, Mary, Joseph, an angel, shepherds, and some Wise Men standing alone on the town square will likely see an endorsement of religion. So, what to do? Put up other holiday-themed figures: a plastic Santa Claus house and sleigh, flying reindeer, toy-building elves, candy canes, stuffed toys, Christmas trees, and colored lights. Line Jesus, Mary, and Joseph up with other holiday kitsch, and there is no longer any constitutional problem. The reasonable observer's senses are sufficiently scrambled; she no longer sees a religious nativity scene but a secularized and commercialized holiday display. How is this is a win for religious institutions?
A lesser-known issue-giving state employees Good Friday off with pay-should also worry people of faith. In order to pass constitutional muster, such a government practice would need a secular purpose. But unlike Thanksgiving and Christmas, which are no longer exclusively religious, few would argue that Good Friday is a secular holiday.
But wait! Isn't Good Friday but two days before Easter Sunday? And isn't Easter Sunday just chock full of secular aspects? The Seventh Circuit Court of Appeals is satisfied: "While there may be few secular aspects surrounding Good Friday, there are many secular aspects to Easter-the Easter bunny, Easter baskets, jelly beans, dyed eggs, and Easter-egg hunts. And [the state] has intrinsically tied the Good Friday holiday to the now-secularized Easter holiday." The "now-secularized" Easter robs Good Friday of its religious meaning. That's hardly a victory for the gospel.
Which brings us back to faith-based initiatives. What could be wrong with using tax money to further the ministry of churches? As with holidays, the cost to churches is the loss of the fundamentally religious dimension of the state-funded activity.
The most direct way for governments to fund church ministry is by channeling tax money toward the ministries of religious organizations. While a majority of the current U.S. Supreme Court may find no constitutional problems with government-funding schemes, that does not mean that religious believers should figure that it's good for religion, too.
The one who pays the piper calls the tune. Bush administration fact sheets presented the faith-based initiatives program as a "comprehensive effort to enlist, equip, enable, empower, and expand the work of faith-based" organizations to support the administration's partisan "compassion agenda." President Obama sees his faith-based partnership office as a way to enlist support for the administration's interests in such areas as advising people with mortgage foreclosure issues and providing job-training. Government money coming into church coffers will mean that the priorities of partisan politicos will inevitably and insidiously nudge aside those of church members.
Obama's executive order in this area is clear: The federal government must ensure that any faith-based organizations receiving taxpayers' dollars be held accountable for their performance to ensure that they "achieve measurable results in furtherance of valid public purposes"-in other words, the purposes and policy priorities of the administration, not necessarily the first choices of religious communities.
At issue is the liberty and autonomy of religious institutions. The risk is that religious institutions will become beholden to governmental and political largesse, be enlisted in administration projects that may not be their own first choice of action, and retreat from engaging in a faith-driven ministerial imperative because it just doesn't bring in federal dollars.
And who will be willing to bite the hand that feeds it? A religious institution's prophetic voice, its ability to speak truth to power, will likely be self-censored when the power it needs to address is also the one holding its purse strings. Religious institutions will be more likely to curry favor with the politician du jour than challenge her on fundamental issues of justice. The ultimate result is a weakened religious community. So how is this a win for religion?
It isn't, and believers shouldn't fall for it. If we want to deliver services to those in need, let's do it not from public coffers but with our own alms, freely given, and according to our own evaluation of people's needs. If we want to take a Good Friday off work, we should, but not at the expense of the secularization of our faith's most solemn days. If we want to announce our faith with public displays, let's do it-in our homes and churches and private businesses.
And if we want to defend the integrity of our faith and promote the reign of God, our first line of defense is that principled "wall" of separation, which our constitution and Catholic teaching wisely support.
Each month, advance copies of Sounding Board & Feedback are mailed to a representative sample of U.S. Catholic subscribers. Their answers to questions about Sounding Board & Feedback—along with a balanced selection of their comments about the article as a whole—eventually appear in the pages of U.S. Catholic magazine.


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Renault KWID price in Tirunelveli start at Rs. 2.78 Lakh. The lowest price model is Renault KWID STD and the most priced model of Renault KWID Climber 1.0 AMT priced at Rs. 4.7 Lakh.
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Toll Free: 877-831-8885
International Calls: 248-547-2400
Perfect for small kitchens, this little cart can help you get organized! Store your appliances and get more prep room for dinner. Read more
14"d x 48"w temporarily out of stock. Estimated ship date: 4/28/17
Our chrome wire shelving kitchen cart is perfect for entertaining guests, as well as everyday use. One wine bottle shelf is provided and can hold 6, 9, or 12 bottles of wine (respectively). Use the flat shelves for serving plates, food, or beverages. Please note that shelf liners are not included but can be purchased here.


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Wanted: -
SW Customs Album
Guess I'll have to change my route on Sat. mornings but the problem is that El Puerco goes to the stores that I normally hit
Btw, I stashed a Stealth Bumblebee at Glendale Target if anyone's interested.
No man, don't give up! Don't change your route. Just get there before opening and beat him to the toys. Besides, saturday morning is when all TRUs are getting the new stuff from the truck lately.
FYI, he also tries to sell grocery store steaks which a friend of his gets him. As crazy as the term sounds, he's also a beef scalper. So if anyone is having a BBQ...
I'm sorry but if you have to resort to selling stolen meat out of your car in random parking lots- you might want to just call Jack Kevorkian.
Likewise, if you have to buy anonymous meat from a guy in a parking lot...
This morning I went to
Torrance Walmart
Crenshaw walmart (Had some droid factory stuff)
Inglewood target
gardena target
Torrance target
Torrance K-mart
Redondo beach target
Manhattan beach target
Hawthorne TRU
and I didn't find jack sh*t! Still looking for GI JOE wave 9 and TF animated Jazz, Soundwave, and Snarl.
Ouch, good haul for him.I also got Voyager Optimus Animated from Glendale Target where the aforementioned Sparky got Snarl, Soundwave and Jazz. grrr!
Darth Vader is becoming the Mickey Mouse of Star Wars.
Kylo Ren - came from Space Brooklyn, although he moved to Space Williamsburg before it was trendy.
The use of a lightsaber does not make one a Jedi, it is the ability to not use it.


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Do Your Clean Clothes Make the Ocean Dirty?
Posted On September 7, 2012 by Sarah van Schagen
Did you know that while clean clothes make you look and feel better, they could actually have the opposite effect on the ocean? By changing your laundry habits even slightly, you may be able to save money, save water and protect the ocean from pollutants.
Here are 6 tips for ensuring you're washing in ways that keep the ocean in mind:


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OK What a week. Here is a summation of COMDEX 2000
Monday Nov. 13th
Woke up at the crack of dawn to pick up jade. (btw: cod is 5:15am) We got off to a good start. On the way up mapquest said SR-93 turned into SR-89. It did. However, it seemed odd to me that we were going this way. So in Yarnell, AZ we stopped to take a leak and I asked someone directions. Turns out mapquest had us on a wild goose chase that cost us about 30 minutes.
We crossed hoover dam just before lunch time and promptly found a goat crossing sign. This is when we realized we forgot the digital camera. You have NO idea how bummed we were. Upon arrival to the Embassy Suites we realized we were in for it. Basically this hotel was so nice that they wouldnt give us a room. Its a long but funny story. : ) (hotel pictures Pic 1 Pic 2)
Finally we made it to the booth and were in search of Leslie Proctor (FSF). We walked the floor for a bit and then met up with Leslie who was promptly off for some VERY cool talks. We met Ariel Rios and Steve from FSF and setup shop. They had no working computers so we fetched our laptops. By this time Robert Chassell from FSF showed up and we started getting the booth ready. : )
We went to dinner with Robert and Steve and talked about the philosphy of free software for some time. I somehow got elected to write two new free software essays... Then Jade I went back to hotel and had a little LAN party of Civilization Call To Power.
Tuesday Nov. 14th
Woke up and had killer booth duty. Were running Free Software Foundation, GNOME and GNU Enterprise things all at once. Lots of good leads wont bore you with the details. Jade and I had good discussions on GNUe.
Wednesday Nov. 15th
More booth duty. Got to hang with helixcode guys a lot miguel and nats assistant used our booth as an internet mail pickup most of the rest of the week so we got lots of helix goodies. Mr. Ruppert Rocks!!! During booth duty we got to hang with tigert, federico, lewing, ettore and anna quite a bit!
This night was capped with a Linux Global Partners party. I spent a LOT of time talking free software with Robert and Microft (NETBSD). Then hung out on the stratosphere roof with Helix guys for a bit. (Picture I took of da "Monkeys")
Thursday Nov. 16th
It started to get a lot harder to wake up by now. Leslie returned from trip and linas from gnucash project showed up. We had some very good talks about where to go next and how to procede.
Got introduced to Editor of Linux Journal Don Marti who is a very cool guy.
The previous night going to the LGP party it was all FSF guys in my car so we renamed it the FSF Limo. This evening FSF took a huge crew out to dinner. I had Don Marti, Tigert, Linas and Jade with me. When exiting Treasure Island we went through Mirage parking lot where we proceded to get run over by a Tahoe going in reverse. (He almost hit us twice) it was crazy! Funniest part is he wasnt even drunk. This delayed dinner only slightly. We went to Wolfgang Pucks resturant in Caesers Palace. Excellent food and company.
Jade and I stayed up until about 3am discussing future directions of GNUe, it was interesting.
Friday Nov. 17th
Hellish morning. We missed our buffet. Got to the booth stuck around long enough to hear a couple of guys argue with Larry that Linus not Larry created Tux. Then headed back to Phoenix. The drive wasnt too bad except for a few slow pokes outside Wickenburg.
Saturday Nov. 18th
Sleep. Lots of Sleep!


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Welcome back to this weeks SMMPodcast. This week I share some thoughts about the 2011 Annual Meetings of the Boy Scouts of America. It was a fantastic experience.
This weeks Podcast is sponsored by The Other Scoutmaster's Handbook.
A couple take home points from the meetings. 1. Use the Journey to Excellence. 2. If what you are doing does not directly impact the youth we serve. Stop Doing it. Listen in as I share my thoughts.
You can listen or Download the show here SMMPodcast # 87
Leave feedback, comments, or suggestions by emailing me, or dropping a comment here on the blog. Don't forget to visit us on iTunes and leave a review… it only makes Scouting get a better rating in a world that really needs it!
Have A Great Scouting Day!


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Wow great story, I guess you didn't read what I just said. This had nothing to do with getting shorted. He had them, knew the Orange Clone was fetching a premium and wanted to make more money on them after he told us the 2 full cases were for us and he would take care of us. In doing so he screwed over Snags and offered the case to me after he had 1st dibs. Now I don't think there was any other way to deal with that other to never buy another thing from him.
[FONT=Tahoma]I was born at night, but not last night.[/FONT]You Shouldn't believe everything that you read.(Like my posts)
okay... I just thought you might have some stuff wrong with your story... Just I know Kat doesn't have a booth at SDCC and from the sound of the story I thought it was a "Shortage" Situation as well... just knowing how GG is distributed through Diamond.... But I know how many people walk into the comic shop so I don't think Kat's gonna be stressing about losing 3 customers... and knwing how Kat is I don't see him as the type of person that sees $'s when it comes to short packed GG Busts but rather not breaking up the case.
But believe what you want there... Trust no one that runs any type of store as a way to make a living.
Well, shiite, the ebay auction I won for Mighty Muggs wave 9 was cancelled and the seller is no longer a member of ebay. Don't have a refund yet either.
Anyone have an extra Old Ben or Biker Scout to sell? I'd be willing to trade some figures or vehicles too.
ebay and MM........couldn't have a worse combination.
For some reason, I just found out about the mail-away ark of the convenant for 12" figures. Is this a Sideshow item? Anyone have one to sell or trade?
I thought it was a mail away for Hasbro's 12" Indy line?
FYI, The 3 3/4 inch figs offered a Crystal Skull Throne w/ alien skeleton and the Action Heroes line offered Indy with horse. Both pretty sweet. Hope this info helps,.. I'm and Indy nerd.
Hide it, Post it, and PM it.


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Wes is done in New England after this year. I think he would fit in well with tennehill.
No thanks
Ryan Swope.
Follow me at www.twitter.com/robi2184, always updating Dolfans with the latest Miami Dolphins news.
Zach Thomas: I played against New England twice a year every year my whole career. I learned to not like that team. I wasn't going to join them.
He'd have to want to come here first. The only way we get him here is by breaking the bank, and I don't think we should break the bank for Wes Welker.
Credit: DisturbedShifty
Welker will have a big year, get a new deal and retire a patriot.
Swope would be brilliant though - the only person in the entire draft I actually specifically want. Shame we dont need him as we have Bess.
Last edited by uk_dolfan; 10-11-2012 at 09:45 PM.
Does welker really hate belichik or does the media blow it out of proportion?
Welker would want more than he's worth.
Just Win Dolphins!
Welker is too old.


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Hope Bay was discovered by Otto Nordenskjold during The Swedish Polar Expedition in the 1st years of the 20th Century. Nordenskjold and five men from the expedition spent the winter of 1901-02 on Snow Hill Island conducting research. The Steam Freighter Antarctic, which dropped them off, was to retrieve them in the Sp...


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Wilson Jones Standard Round Ring Binder
Letter - 8.50" x 11" - 2 Pockets - 3 x Round Ring Fastener - 1" Capacity - Vinyl - Gray - 1 Each
Traditional three-ring binder features durable, stiff PVC covers to secure your letter-size documents. Metal round rings are mounted to the spine. Opening and closing triggers on the rings offer easy access. Two interior pockets offer a horizontal orientation to store loose papers for easy access. Design also features exposed rivets and a sturdy chipboard core. Binder contains a high percentage of recycled material.


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Thinking about it from the perspective that these are "real" events happening to "real" people, then I could definitely understand Herschel's point of view. I don't trust news networks to tell the truth on everyday matters, so why would I suddenly believe some CNN reporter when he tells me that my family has turned into flesh-eating monsters and I need to put a bullet in their brains?
The reality and enormity of the situation simply hadn't set in for Herschel yet.
Also, I took that personality test as well and I guess I'm Dale.


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4.4: Considerations for Distributed Live, Virtual and Constructive Simulations in Test and Evaluation
Lesson Objectives
- Explain the limitations and advantages of Test and Evaluation (T&E) in a distributed environment
- Describe how distributed live, virtual, and constructive (LVC) T&E can:
- Mitigate risk in product development
- Improve T&E capabilities
- Explain why distributed LVC T&E is not meant to replace live testing
- Describe the importance of "test-fix-test"
- Explain the advantages of scalable distributed T&E events
scalable: In electronics (including hardware, communication, and software), scalability is the ability of a system, network, or process to handle growing amounts of work in a graceful manner, or its ability to be enlarged to accommodate that growth. In the context of distributed T&E, we will refer to scalability as the ability to control the size and complexity of a distributed LVC event. It can be very small, to accommodate only two connected systems, or very large and complex, encompassing many systems and even multiple systems-of-systems.1
Check Your Understanding
In the three previous lessons, the student has been exposed to all the various "parts" needed to plan for and conduct distributed testing using LVC simulations. They should now have a basic understanding of the complexities and advantages of using such a T&E methodology. The concepts and details we have provided were not intended to make the student an expert on either T&E or distributed testing. But there should be a good enough foundation to understand when distributed LVC should be considered in T&E planning.
Testing using distributed LVC simulations is not meant as a solution to all T&E requirements. Nor will it correct all the "late-cycle churn" problems in developing a new product. However, there are distinct advantages and practical applications that can provide tremendous benefits. In this final lesson, we will introduce you to various considerations and specific advantages to the test planners, the developer, and ultimately the customer.
Lesson Content
Limitations to Conventional Live Test and Evaluation Methodologies
Conventional Test and Evaluation (T&E) with actual and complete systems can provide for testing in representative and realistic real-world environments. However, this usually requires building a large and expensive T&E event. In many cases, testing in such a live scenario will be subject to limiting factors, such as:
- Systems that are interdependent with a system-of-systems might not be readily available because they are in high demand elsewhere, do not exist in adequate numbers yet, or do not exist at all.
- There may be limited availability of related systems needed to complement a system's realistic environment.
- Systems may not be co-located at the test site.
- Fully complete, actual systems are not built yet.
In fact, in most cases, needed systems and capabilities are not co-located at the desired T&E venue. Relying solely on live systems for T&E is often impractical, usually very expensive, and sometimes simply impossible.
What Are the Advantages of Distributed Testing with Live, Virtual, and Constructive Models and Simulations?
A distributed T&E environment can be built using a mixture of live, Hardware-in-the-Loop (HWIL), virtual, and constructive capabilities, all connected together. That is, the various testing components can be connected on a network to form a distributed operating environment for the system under test (SUT) linking all its enabling systems. In this distributed environment using LVC representations, the testing components and systems need not be co-located. This distributed test approach will allow the product's developer to customize the T&E methodology to capitalize on the particular advantages of each capability as it is needed. Also, components and systems not previously available can be fully integrated into the T&E process.
Distributed test events need not be solely large scenario-driven events, nor incorporate the LVC assets available all at once. One event may include live and virtual capabilities, another may include virtual and constructive, while a third may link multiple HWIL or Systems Integration Laboratory (SIL) facilities with a live operator. Smaller-scale testing can be done using a distributed infrastructure to provide technical risk reduction prior to linking the environment of all interrelated systems in a larger test. Linking the various systems and components of a large system or system-of-systems using distributed test capabilities may prove to be the simplest, quickest, and cheapest way to avoid the pitfall of conducting T&E assessments based solely on individual, system-particular performance parameters.
How Does Distributed Live, Virtual, and Constructive T&E Mitigate Risk?
In previous lessons, we have shown how various companies and developers consider reducing what has been called "late-cycle churn" in the design and manufacturing process for new products. As we discussed in the lesson "What Is Test and Evaluation?," the Pentium® Pro and Pentium® III are much more complex and have significantly improved capabilities over their predecessors, yet due to improved T&E capabilities they were developed in the same amount of time as the original Pentium® microprocessor. Some consider the concept of "break it early" to be important in finding problems with a product or system so they can be corrected before the design is finalized. The problem with the concept of "breaking it early" is how to best do that. Testing using only actual, live systems may be logistically impossible, can be very expensive, and can intrude on production schedules. In some cases, it may be impossible if the system under test has not yet been completely built. A distributed LVC environment can be developed at a fraction of the cost of testing with live systems. This in turn offers two distinct advantages for both test planners and the developer in mitigating risk for a new product:
- Distributed testing allows for early and continuous T&E to be integrated into the product's developmental process. This idea is called "test early, test often" and allows developers to embed testing into all phases of a product's design, development, and production. As we have shown in previous lessons, conducting T&E very early in a product's maturity cycle by linking distributed components or using HWIL and SILs allows developers to correct problems early, when they are cheaper and easier to fix.
- Distributed LVC simulations can be built to provide a realistic environment for the product or system under test, including all the necessary and interrelated systems. That is, the system under test's planned or expected real-world operating conditions can be replicated in a distributed testing environment that can provide the characteristics, components, systems, and other capabilities needed to test technical and user performance. Providing this realistic environment early and often allows the developer to learn how their product may behave in actual operating conditions well before the product's design is finalized, when problems are easier and cheaper to fix.
These two advantages become even more apparent when one considers not just individual systems, but the rapidly expanding network-centric environment and the need to conduct T&E in ever more complex systems-of-systems. The ability to "test early, test often" in realistic environments will become a driving force behind distributed testing.
How Does Distributed Live, Virtual, and Constructive T&E Improve Testing?
There are many aspects to using distributed LVC simulations to improve T&E.
- Representations of the system under test (e.g., HWIL, SILs) can be integrated into the testing process before the actual system under test (SUT) is built.
- Representations of other systems with which the SUT must interact can be integrated to test for interoperability.
- Systems and components can be integrated into the test of a live system without having to move the additional systems and components to the test site.
- Environmental models can be linked into the test to provide a realistic real-world environment. This can include bringing weather, challenging terrain, safety hazards, and other challenges into the test.
- In many cases, distributed test events are easy and relatively cheap to repeat. This allows the developer to collect much more data on the technical specifications and performance of a product.
- Due to the more controlled LVC environment, there is a significantly reduced risk of damaging the system under test, test equipment, or people.
- The test can proceed without damaging the environment, thus mitigating environmental restrictions on testing.
- Distributed test events allow for enhanced cross-flow of test data between distributed LVC T&E systems and facilities.
Conducting a technical or user test on a pizza, as described in the lesson "What Is Test and Evaluation?" may be time-consuming, but it is a relatively simple process. Testing today's complicated systems and systems-of-systems, such as a new airliner flying in the national airspace system, presents much more of a challenge to developers and test planners. Ultimately, LVC representations can be used to evaluate the capabilities of a system or system-of-systems in a realistic distributed environment. This distributed environment can be developed at a fraction of the cost of testing with all live components and provides the capability to evaluate technical and operational performance for individual systems and systems-of-systems. This way, technical T&E can incorporate realistic environments much earlier in the product's design phase. User T&E planners can also use distributed LVC T&E methodologies to verify early that the system under test works both "stand alone" and in the expected system-of-systems environment. Early integrated testing will allow the developers to find problems early in a product's development, while they are still relatively easy and inexpensive to correct. Testing can then continue across the entire developmental cycle of a new product.
Why Is the "Live" So Important to T&E?
In order to convince him or herself, the agencies that oversee the industry (e.g., the Federal Aviation Administration or the Environmental Protection Agency), and the customer that the system performs as intended in the expected environment, the developer will be compelled to test the system in the "real world" using the actual system with other, related actual systems. Some T&E planners may want to consider using a Modeling and Simulation (M&S) methodology only, with no live systems. Regardless of how well a model or LVC simulation is constructed, it is still a representation. It will be very difficult to convince the decision maker that the system under test will function as intended in the real world using only M&S. For credible T&E, there must be some level of testing with a real system, a real user, and the expected, actual environment. In short, T&E planners must do "live" testing using real people and real systems to ensure the product has no serious faults or safety issues before it is released for use by the customers. Because of the ability to inject the "live" into testing, distributed LVC testing can provide for earlier identification of problems and reduce the amount of live testing, thus reducing cost and risk.
Distributed LVC testing cannot eliminate the risk of a major fault in the product, but can be used to build up to a live test and greatly reduce the risk before the live test occurs. A good example of this occurred recently, when the U.S. Air Force was adding a new digital communication capability to portions of their bomber fleet. Prior to conducting an actual flight test, the Air Force tested the interoperability of the new communication system by linking an actual bomber aircraft that was on the ground but manned with real pilots to a virtual simulator of an airborne communications aircraft at a separate base, also manned with real operators. A data collection facility at yet another base was also linked to complete the test. The Air Force testers discovered problems in the communications software, which the developers fixed within hours. The testers then ran the test again to verify that the communication system performed as intended with the fixes applied. All this was done with a combination of live and virtual systems separated by hundreds of miles without requiring a single flight. Conducting the live and virtual distributed testing provided for a significant reduction in risk to follow-on live flight tests of the new communications system, and saved the expense of multiple flight tests.
What Is "Test-Fix-Test?"
The above Air Force example leads us right into the concept of test-fix-test. The complexity and expense of today's net-centric systems clearly demonstrate the need to test early and often throughout the development process and the life of the system. Test-fix-test refers to an iterative process in which the new system is subjected to a test, deficiencies are immediately corrected, the corrections are tested, and then the system continues on to another development and test cycle.
Table below shows the cost of fixing a defect depending on the stage during development it was found. For example, if a problem in the design is found only post-release, then it would cost 25 to 100 times more to fix than if it had already been found by the design phase review.2 In addition to the safety aspect, think of the expense of a nation-wide recall of automobiles due to a faulty design of the brakes or an accelerator switch when thousands and thousands have been sold to customers. Successful test-fix-test generally involves early and continuous testing of the new system from the early developmental stage through fielding to customers, to dramatically reduce a product's "late-cycle churn." This is exactly the impact a distributed SIL can have on developing new products like the Boeing 777-200.
Early testing of a system's capability to operate in its intended environment will allow designers and system engineers to identify and correct fundamental issues with performance and interoperability before they are built into the system. That will obviously reduce development time and cost and help designers build a better product, faster, and at a lower cost!
|Cost to fix a defect
|Time detected
|Time detected
|Time detected
|Time detected
|System test
Advantages of Scalable Distributed Live, Virtual, and Constructive T&E Events
Distributed LVC methodologies offer T&E planners the opportunity to participate in scalable LVC events tailored to the test requirements. Distributed test events can be planned to support varying degrees of complexity, capabilities, requirements, funding, system maturity, and scheduling limitations. This includes experiments, early technical testing, and even follow-on user testing that might consist of:
- A distributed system-to-system event consists of connecting two systems or sub-systems together to test their interaction. In a distributed system-to-system event, test planners have the maximum ability to inject their test requirements into the event and to control test conditions and execution. These generally small, inexpensive events can be an excellent venue for "test-fix-test" and early risk reduction for the system/product, in order to assess the interaction and data exchange between systems or components. It allows the test planners to schedule and execute the event as often as needed, with minimal costs and without having to move the systems or sub-systems to the same place. This can be done using HWIL or a SIL to represent the system under test.
- A distributed network-centric event is a T&E event that uses an environment of LVC models and simulations. The size and complexity of the T&E event and the capabilities provided will naturally depend on the T&E requirements. Test planners could use a relatively small event to provide the most realistic environment possible, from concept exploration through follow-on T&E when it is too costly to bring all the player systems together at a single place. This would inject a real-world influence early in the product's design and development stage. A larger distributed LVC event could be an excellent venue to provide an assessment of system-of-systems interoperability issues early in the acquisition process. That is especially true when there are not adequate numbers of systems under test or support assets required for live testing. An even more complex network-centric distributed T&E environment would provide interactions between systems in a realistic system-of-systems environment. An important advantage of such an event is the ability to provide a realistic operating environment. This could include such factors as weather, rough terrain, heat, cold, adverse air quality (such as smoke and haze), and poor lighting conditions. In this case, virtual and constructive capabilities could supplement live systems to assess interoperability and reduce risk at a fraction of the time and cost of a live on-site test event. These larger events could naturally include various HWIL facilities and even multiple SILs.3
Are There Disadvantages to Distributed Live, Virtual, and Constructive T&E?
As with every aspect of T&E, not all solutions will be appropriate for every situation. Distributed LVC simulation would certainly not be appropriate for testing the pizzas or permanent wave machines that were discussed in the lesson "What Is Test and Evaluation?" Using distributed LVC T&E is certainly not free. The various systems and components must be brought on line, which may be difficult with differing communication systems. Distributed testing requires detailed test planning, so all the factors affecting the test must be understood and addressed before the test execution. For many distributed LVC T&E events, there may not be a completed product or real system, and in some cases no actual users. This may complicate the problems the developer may have testing the product or system in use by actual customers. But these same limitations apply to conventional testing. While not a panacea, and not appropriate for all situations, distributed LVC T&E has proven in many situations to help developers build a better product quicker and cheaper.
What Is the Bottom Line?
Conducting T&E using distributed LVC simulations can save the product developers time and money, reduce risk, and ultimately produce a better product! It is not appropriate for every situation, but given that a product developer does not want to sell the customer a product that does not work, they will need to test the product to ensure that the product works as intended in the conditions the customer will actually use it. Conducting T&E with live-only systems will become increasingly more difficult in the ever-changing network-centric, system-of-systems world we live in. Using LVC simulations in a distributed test environment can enable developers to test early and often in a product's development cycle and so identify and fix problems when they are much easier and cheaper to correct. A distributed LVC test environment presents a unique capability for testing net-centric systems-of-systems.
Lesson Summary
- There are limitations to testing with actual live, complete systems.
- Advantages of using distributed live, virtual, and constructive simulations in test and evaluation include being able to more easily customize individual events based on requirements and capabilities.
- Risk in developing a new product can be mitigated by:
- Testing much earlier and more often in a product's development. This idea is called "test early–test often."
- Providing a realistic environment for the product or system under test and all interrelated systems.
- T&E using distributed live, virtual, and constructive simulations improves the T&E process and enables early and continuous testing across the developmental life cycle.
- "Test-fix-test" refers to an iterative process in which the new system is subjected to a test, deficiencies are immediately corrected, and then the system continues on to another test cycle.
- Distributed test events can be scalable and planned to support varying degrees of complexity, capabilities, requirements, funding, system maturity, and scheduling limitations.
- The bottom line is that T&E using distributed LVC simulations can save the product developer time and money, reduce risk, and ultimately produce a better product!
Review Questions
1. List two limitations in conducting T&E with actual live systems.
2. How does distributed LVC T&E mitigate risk?
3. How does distributed LVC T&E improve testing capabilities?
4. What is "test-fix-test"?
5. Why is scalability important in distributed LVC T&E?
6. What is the bottom line in using distributed LVC simulations in T&E?
Further Reading/Supplemental Links
http://www.benmeadowcroft.com/reports/systemfailure/ Go to this link to view a report on the major causes of system failure. The continued testing of systems already in use by the customer is also important in being prepared for potential system failures.
Points to Consider
For this lesson, points to consider are provided as an aid to the instructor to stimulate critical thinking among the students. These questions have no right or wrong answers, but may help further the student's understanding of the material. Suggested responses are provided to help the instructor guide the discussion.
- A study conducted by the National Institute of Standards and Technology in 2002 reported that software bugs cost the U.S. economy $59.5 billion annually. More than a third of this cost could be avoided if better software testing was performed.4 Why is it that some companies don't embed T&E early into their product's development? (Suggested response: An aggressive T&E program can appear to be expensive and time-consuming. There is no doubt that some test events, even distributed LVC events, can have a large "up-front" cost. While developers will ultimately reap time and cost savings, the "up-front" cost of T&E can be intimidating. Also, there can be an attitude with some developers that T&E only brings bad news. While that may be true in the short term, as T&E discovers faults and problems in a product, T&E should actually be considered a money maker. Discovering those faults and problems early in a product's development can only reduce the cost to the developer and customer. T&E doesn't cost, T&E pays!
- We have shown how early distributed testing provides for a testing capability without having to bring all the required test assets to one place. This will save developers time and money and reduce risk, especially for a system-of-systems in a net-centric environment. However, can a distributed LVC test capability provide for a more thorough evaluation? That is, can distributed methodologies improve the evaluation part of the test and evaluation process? (Suggested response: Most test planners will focus on the distributed aspect of data collection during a test. That is, distributed LVC methodologies allow for the tester to move data and not necessarily the people needed to collect and analyze the data. While not immediately obvious, the same potential holds true for the evaluation of the test data. When the data is available on a distributed network, the evaluators are able to access the data while not having to be co-located. This ability for distributed evaluation and even reporting is yet another advantage of using distributed LVC simulations for T&E.
- Distributed testing is gaining recognition and acceptance from developers and testers. However, while the concept has proven its worth, work remains to improve distributed test capabilities and to educate product developers and testers to use it appropriately. This chapter in the Modeling & Simulation Flexbook® digital resource is intended to address this very subject. In completing these four lessons, you now have a very good foundation in T&E and how distributed LVC simulations can be used.
1 André B. Bondi, 'Characteristics of scalability and their impact on performance', Proceedings of the 2nd international workshop on Software and performance, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, 2000, ISBN 1-58113-195-X, pages 195 – 203. As cited in Wikipedia article, Scalability, Jan 2012, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scalability.
2 McConnell, Steve (2004). Code Complete (2nd ed.). Microsoft Press. pp. 29. As cited in Wikipedia article, Software Testing, Jan 2012, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Software_testing, Jan 2012.
3 Ferguson, Chip, Making the Case for Distributed Testing, ITEA Journal, Sept 2010
4 NIST. Economic Impacts of Inadequate Infrastructure for Software Testing, May 2002
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text: Yesterday we re-introduced you to Elizabeth Olsen, the 21-year-old sister of MK&A who's stealing the show over at Sundance. Turns out that in addition to a famous last name and a set of acting chops, Lizzie's also got a killer sense of style (the Olsen twins' line Elizabeth and James is even named after her). Check out our latest and future style crush.


text:
What is a muxy?
I though it was about time that I posted a blog entry, but what was I going to blog about? Instead of blogging I should be working on muxy so I though that would be a good thing to describe.
Basicly muxy is a transport stream demultiplexor. That means you can use it for recording digital TV programs. You can actuall read more about it at MUXY the Muxer
Muxy forms part of the Digital ORB which will be a TV watching program like MythTV but without feature creep and targeted at Australian DTV.


text:
Deeplinks Blog posts about CALEA
The New York Times reported this morning on a Federal government plan to put government-mandated back doors in all communications systems, including all encryption software. The Times said the Obama administration is drafting a law that would impose a new "mandate" that all communications services be "able to intercept and unscramble encrypted messages" — including ordering "[d]evelopers of software that enables peer-to-peer communication [to] redesign their service to allow interception".
Recent news reports have presented somewhat contradictory analysis of government plans in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Saudi Arabia, and other countries to block the use of BlackBerry smart phones as a form of pressure on Research in Motion, BlackBerry's Canadian manufacturer. All the reports agree that these governments feel RIM has made at least some BlackBerry messages too private and secure, but reports disagree about how private they actually are and exactly what RIM is being asked to do.
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's announcement of a new U.S. policy on global Internet Freedom included a bold new statement about the responsibilities of American technology companies:
...We are urging U.S. media companies to take a proactive role in challenging foreign governments' demands for censorship and surveillance. The private sector has a shared responsibility to help safeguard free expression. And when their business dealings threaten to undermine this freedom, they need to consider what's right, not simply what's a quick profit.
We couldn't agree more.
After a petition from the FBI and other federal law enforcement agencies, the FCC ruled last year that companies like Vonage and private institutions that provide Net access must redesign their networks to facilitate wiretaps. By forcing broadband Internet and interconnected voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP) services to abide by the controversial Communications Assistance for Law Enforcement Act (CALEA), the FCC ignored the statute's plain language and threatened privacy, security, and innovation.
Today, the DC Circuit Court of Appeals heard oral arguments in a suit brought by EFF and a coalition of public interest, industry, and academic groups challenging the FCC's unjustified expansion of the Communications Assistance for Law Enforcement Act (CALEA). The suit argues that the FCC ignored the plain language of CALEA by forcing broadband and VoIP providers to become wiretap-friendly.
According to News.com, the court is also skeptical of the FCC's power over Internet services:
"'This is wholly ridiculous,' [Judge Harry] Edwards said, saying that Congress' meaning was clear. The FCC's argument 'is such gobbedlygook, it's really funny.... It's utter nonsense.'"
AP also reported on the hearing.
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text:
Click on the headline (link) for the full text.
Many more articles are available through the Energy Bulletin homepage
'Wave snakes' switch on to harness ocean's power
Alok Jha, The Guardian
From a distance, they look like nothing more than thin red lines on the horizon, easily lost amid the tumbling blue of the Atlantic Ocean. But get closer and the significance of the 140m-long tubes, 10 years in the making by a British company and now floating in the sea off the coast of Portugal, becomes apparent: they are the beginning of an entirely new industry in the hunt for clean power.
Yesterday, the red snake-like devices were inaugurated as part of the world's first commercial-scale wave-power station, three miles from the coast of the northern Portuguese town of Aguçadoura. The project, which will generate clean electricity for more than 1,000 family homes in its first phase, marks the latest step in Portugal's moves to become a leader in developing renewable energy sources.
At the heart of the Aguçadoura power station are three cylindrical wave energy converters, designed and built by the Edinburgh-based company Pelamis Wave Power. Moving up and down on the endless supply of waves in the open sea, they convert the motion into electricity, without emitting any of the carbon dioxide responsible for warming the planet...
...At peak output, the Pelamis wave machines near Aguçadoura will generate 2.25MW, enough for the annual needs of about 1,500 family homes. Eventually, the station will be expanded with a further 25 Pelamis machines so that it can generate up to 21MW of power. That will save 60,000 tonnes of CO2 per year compared with a conventional fossil fuel plant...
...Greenpeace UK's chief scientist, Doug Parr, said the UK government's energy secretary, John Hutton, should take urgent note of the developments in Portugal. "Wave technology invented in Scotland is powering Portuguese homes and making money for Portuguese suppliers, because our government has consistently neglected the renewables industry here in the UK."...
(24 September 2008)
Electricity From What Cows Leave Behind
Katie Zezima, New York Times
FOR years, the cows at Green Mountain Dairy here produced only milk and manure. But recently they have generated something else: electricity.
The farm is part of a growing alternative energy program that converts the methane gas from cow manure into electricity that is sold to the power utility's grid.
Central Vermont Public Service, which supplies electricity to 158,000 customers around the state, was among the first utilities in the country to draw electricity from cow manure on dairy farms. About 4,000 utility customers participate by agreeing to pay a premium for the electricity.
"We realized we could help meet a customer demand for renewables, help solve a manure management problem and make these farmers more financially secure," said Steve Costello, a spokesman for Central Vermont Public Service.
Four Vermont dairy farms are producing electricity for the utility, and two more are expected to be online by year's end, Mr. Costello said. The utility hopes to add six more farms by 2010...
(23 September 2008)
UK's renewable energy efforts 'ineffective'
Terry Macalister, The Guardian
The government's renewable power strategy is "ineffective and very expensive", according to a damning review by the International Energy Agency.
A study of 35 countries, including all the major industrial nations such as the US, Germany and China, puts the UK near the bottom of the class on green energy.
While ministers like to boast that the Britain leads the field, Paolo Frankl, author of the IEA report and head of renewables, believes its overall record is poor.
"We estimate that, in 2005 terms, it [British green power] costs around 13.5 US cents per kilowatt hour over 20 years and registers 3% on our effectiveness indicator. This compares with costs below 10 cents and effectiveness of almost 12% in Germany," said Frankl, author of Deploying Renewables: Principles for Effective Policies.
Frankl said the UK had not improved in relative terms since then. "Things may have changed but I would not say drastically, especially compared with countries which have changed and become very efficient such as Spain and Portugal."...
(30 September 2008)
[1] http://energybulletin.net
[2] http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/sep/24/renewable.wave.energy.portugal
[3] http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/24/business/businessspecial2/24farmers.html?hp
[4] http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/sep/30/energy.renewableenergy