text: Foreign Policy by Coalition: Deadlock, Compromise, and Anarchy Author(s): Joe D. Hagan, Philip P. Everts, Haruhiro Fukui, John D. Stempel Reviewed work(s): Source: International Studies Review, Vol. 3, No. 2, Leaders, Groups, and Coalitions: Understanding the People and Processes in Foreign Policymaking (Summer, 2001), pp. 169-216 Published by: Blackwell Publishing on behalf of The International Studies Association Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/3186568 . Accessed: 28/02/2012 05:16 Your use of the JSTOR archive indicates your acceptance of the Terms & Conditions of Use, available at . http://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsp JSTOR is a not-for-profit service that helps scholars, researchers, and students discover, use, and build upon a wide range of content in a trusted digital archive. We use information technology and tools to increase productivity and facilitate new forms of scholarship. For more information about JSTOR, please contact [email protected] Blackwell Publishing and The International Studies Association are collaborating with JSTOR to digitize, preserve and extend access to International Studies Review. http://www.jstor.org Foreign Policy by Coalition: Deadlock, Compromise, and Anarchy Joe D. Hagan West VirginiaUniversity Philip P Everts Institutefor InternationalStudies, Leiden University HaruhiroFukui Universityof California,Santa Barbara John D. Stempel PattersonSchool, Universityof Kentucky When ultimateauthorityin foreignpolicymakingis neithera predom- inant leader nor a single group, there is a third alternativedecision unit: a "coalition" of politically autonomous actors. The defining feature of this type of decision unit is the absence of any single group or actor with the political authorityto commit the state in internationalaffairs. Foreign policy decision making in these settings is very fragmentedand centers on the willingness and ability of multiple, politically autonomous actors to achieve agreementto enact policy. One premise of this essay is that, althoughtypically ignored in the study of foreign policy decision making, coalition decision units are actually quite prevalent across a variety of institutional settings. They are prone to occur in parliamentarydemocracies with multipartycabinets, in presidentialdemocracieswith opposinglegislative andexecutive branches,in authoritarianregimes in which power is dispersed across factions and/or institutions, and finally in decentralizedsettings in which bureaucraticactors gain authority in collectively dealing with major policy issues. ? 2001 InternationalStudies Association Published by Blackwell Publishers, 350 Main Street, Malden, MA 02148, USA, and 108 Cowley Road, Oxford OX4 1JF,UK. 170 Hagan, Everts, Fukui, and Stempel This essay's otherpremise is thatcoalition decision units-despite the fragmentation of political authority within them-are in fact able to produce a variety of decision outcomes. Drawingupon theories of coalition formation,we propose a variety of political variablesthat facilitate or inhibit the achievement of agreementin coalition decision units. Key among these variablesis the nature of the decision rules that govern the interaction among coalition members in the policymaking process. Decision rules define three basic coalition configurations and are illustratedin some detail using case studies: 1. A multipartycoalitioncabinetwith an establisheddecisionrulethatrequires unanimousagreementas exemplified in the decision making of the Dutch governmentin the 1980s regardingthe questionof acceptingNATOcruise missiles (Everts). 2. A largely interbureaucraticdecision where the established decision rule requiresonly a majorityvote as exemplified in Japanesedecision making surroundingthe 1971 "Nixon shocks" and, in particular,the pressure to devalue the yen (Fukui). 3. A revolutionarycoalition in an authoritarianregime with no decision rules as exemplifiedin the case of Iraniandecision makingconcerningtheAmerican hostage crisis startingin 1979 (Stempel). These cases illustratethe interplayof variables that predispose coalition decision units to act in a variety of ways, ranging from the immobilism of extreme deadlock to the aggressiveness reflective of near political anarchy.As with the other pieces in this special issue, these cases provide an initial, detailed application of the theoretical logic linking coalition decision structuresand processes to foreign policy. COALITION DECISION UNITS AND FOREIGN POLICY: A THEORETICAL OVERVIEW Coalitiondecision units have two defining traits.One is the sharpfragmentation of political authoritywithin the decision unit. No single actor or group has the authorityto commit on its own the resources of the state; a sustained policy initiative can only be enacted with the support (or acquiescence) of all actors within the decision unit. Any actor in the decision unit is able to block the initiatives of the otheractors.This may occur by (1) executing a veto, (2) threatening to terminate the ruling coalition, and/or (3) withholding the resources necessary for action or the approvalneeded for their use. Furthermore,for a set of multiple autonomousactorsto be the authoritativedecision unit, the decision cannotinvolve any superiorgroupor individualthatacts independentlyto resolve differences among the groups or that can reverse any decision the groups reach collectively. Foreign Policy by Coalition 171 The other defining feature of a coalition decision unit centers around the effects that each actor's constituencies can have on members of the decision unit. Even if representativesof the differentactors within the coalition do meet (say, in a cabinet), these individuals do not have the authorityto commit the decision unit without having first consulted the key members of those they represent.The power of these leaders is, in effect, incomplete since it can be significantly restricted by the views of constituents. Such constraint greatly complicates the ability of a coalition of actors to achieve agreement.For individual decision makers in this type of decision unit, the political process is, itself, a "two-level game" (Putnam, 1988) in which each decision maker must negotiate not only with opposing actors within the decision unit but also with factional leaders in his or her own constituency.As a result, foreign policymaking within coalition decision units reflects the bargainingthat is ongoing within two domestic political arenas.Coalition decision units are, thus, constrainedin what they can do. The fragmentationof authoritycharacteristicof coalition decision units is likely-but not automatic-in a wide varietyof institutionalsettings (see Hagan, 1993). Indeed, such decision units can be found in all types of political systems. They occur in democratic and authoritarian regimes as well as in wellestablished and less institutionalized regimes. Consider the following four settings: Multiparty cabinets in parliamentary democracies. Coalition decision units may occur if no single party-or faction-has sole control of the cabinet due to the fact that none has an absolute majorityin the parliament.At any time, the defection of a party (or faction) can bring down the cabinet which, in some cases, may even requirenew elections. As such, any party or faction may block the actions of the rest of the cabinet by threateningto defect from the coalition. In orderfor a foreign policy initiative to be taken, all members of the coalition must agree.1 'On the prevalenceof coalitioncabinetsin parliamentary democraciesin postwar Europesee Bogdanor(1983) andLijphart(1984);eachmakesthepointthattwo-party rule"hardlyfits the normin Europeor elsewhere(e.g., India,Israel, "majoritarian Uruguay,or, now, Japan).The literatureon Japaneseforeignpolicymakingwithin the factionalizedLiberalDemocraticPartyis particularlyrich(e.g., Hellmann,1969; Destleret al., 1976;Hosoya,1976;Ori,1976;Fukui,1977a).Theworkon otheradvanced democraciesis a bit morescatteredbut some emphasizingpoliticaldecisionmaking includeanalysesof the Netherlands(Everts,1885),the Scandinavian countries(Sundelius, 1982;Goldmann,Berglund,andSjostedt,1986),as well as Germany,France, and/orBritain(e.g., Andrews,1962; Hanrieder,1970; Morse, 1973; Hanriederand theoreticalstudies Auton,1980;Smith,Smith,andWhite,1988).See alsocomparative by Risse-Kappen(1991), Hagan(1993), andKaarbo(1996). 172 Hagan, Everts, Fukui, and Stempel Presidential (and semi-presidential) democracies in which the executive and legislature are controlled by opposing parties. Although separationof powers arrangementsmean that presidents are not dependent on the legislature for retainingoffice, the executive normallysharessignificantpolicymakingauthority with a similarly autonomouslegislative branch.Because the two institutions have the ability to check each other's policy actions (withoutbringingdown the government),a foreign policy initiative involving majorcommitmentnormally requiresthatthe separateinstitutionsmust work togetherif substantivelymeaningful action is to be taken.2 Authoritarian regimes withpower dispersed across separatefactions, groups, or institutions. Like parliamentarycabinets, one-party regimes, militaryjuntas, and traditionalmonarchies may become fragmentedwith the presence of well-established and politically autonomousfactions-each of which is essential to the maintenanceof the regime's authorityor legitimacy. More extreme fragmentationcan occur in periods when such governmentsare in political flux (e.g., duringperiodsinvolving revolutionaryconsolidationor institutionalreform or, even, decay) and power is spreadacross the separateinstitutions typical of authoritarian regimes:the rulingparty,governmentministries,andmilitaryapparatus (Perlmutter,1981). Whateverthe case, foreign policymaking will reflect the interplay among these separateactors and the agreement(or lack thereof) among them.3 20Onthe role of the U.S. Congress as, in effect, a part of a coalition decision unit with the executive branch see Frank and Weisband (1979), Destler, Gelb, and Lake (1984), Destler (1986), and Lindsay (1994), as well as cases in Lepper(1971), Spanier and Nogee (1981), and Snyder (1991: ch. 7). LePrestre(1984) offers a useful analysis of French foreign policymaking during that country's first period of "cohabitation." Foreign policy decision making in Latin American states, many of whom have presidential regimes, is considered in Lincoln and Ferris (1984) and Munoz and Tulchin (1984). 3The literatureon the politics of Soviet foreign policymaking was particularlyrich, althougharguablythe Soviet Union did not decay into coalition decision making until the latterpart of the Gorbachevregime. Worksthat highlight the dispersion of power in Soviet policymaking include those by Aspaturian(1966), Linden (1978), Valenta (1979), and Gelman (1984). Of course, Russian foreign policymaking now approaches that of being semi-presidential.The People's Republic of China is currentlythe key communist case; in the post-Deng era, there is good reason to believe that political authorityhas become quite dispersed in what is otherwise an established regime (e.g., Barnett, 1985). Cases of decaying authoritarianstates are numerous.In additionto the historic cases considered in the first piece in this special issue (particularlySnyder, 1991), detailed studies of extreme decision-making conflict (or anarchy)and foreign policy can be found for revolutionaryFrance(Walt, 1996), Sukarno'sIndonesia(Weinstein, 1976), Syria prior to the 1967 War (Bar-Simon-Tov, 1983), China during the Foreign Policy by Coalition 173 Decentralizedinterbureaucraticdecision making. In all regimetypes with complex political organization,coalition decision units may emerge when the political leadership permits an issue to be handled in a decentralized setting. Power then gravitatesto bureaucraticactorsand even interestgroupswho interact on a more or less equal and autonomous basis. Cooperation among these actors is necessary because their decision must ultimately be sanctionedby the political leadership, and failure to resolve issues on their own risks outside political intervention.4 As the readercan see, because of the ratherwidespreadfragmentationof institutional andpolitical authority,coalition decision units areactuallyquiteprevalent. That is not to say, however, that such fragmentationautomaticallyleads to foreign policymaking by coalition. In settings in which there are norms thatfacilitate policy coordinationamong representativesso thatthey can work as a single group or when leaders are so deadlockedthata single individualor bureaucratic actor can achieve de facto control of an issue, we may not find coalitions as the authoritativedecision unit. But thereare enough instances where coalitions may be presentto warrantexamining their effect on the decision-makingprocess. Factors Affecting Agreement Among Autonomous Actors The basic theoretical task we have in linking coalition decision units to decision outcomes is to understandthe process whereby separateand autonomous political actors can come together to take substantively meaningful actions in foreign affairs that are authoritativeand cannot be reversed.The fragmentation of authority inside a coalition decision unit necessitates that a sequence of questions be asked in developing the explanatory logic for this type of unit. First, what kinds of resources count in shaping who had influence within the coalition, and how much of that resource is adequateto authorize a particular course of action?Second, what conditionslead separate,often contending,actors to achieve agreement on foreign policy? One's initial inclination would be to assume that such fragmenteddecision bodies find themselves internallydeadlocked and unable to act. Although deadlock (in various forms) is an important outcome here, our assumptionis governmentswith coalition decision units can culturalrevolution(Hinton,1972),andArgentinaandtheFalklands(LevyandVakili, 1990)as well as Iranandthe hostagecrisis (Stempel,1981). 4 Theoriginalliterature on "interservice rivalries"withintheU.S. militarydescribes the classic case of this patternof coalitiondecisionmaking.See worksby Schilling, Hammond,andSnyder(1962), Hammond(1963), Caraley(1966), Davis (1967), and Huntington(1968). Destler (1980) and Vernon,Spar,and Tobin(1991) illustratea similarpatternwith respectto foreigneconomicpolicy. 174 Hagan, Everts, Fukui, and Stempel act in significant and meaningful ways. Indeed, as hypothesized with the other two kinds of decision units, the dynamics of the coalition decision unit may strongly amplify existing predispositionsto act as well as diminish them. As with the predominantleader and single-group decision units, we will drawhereupon well-establishedtheoreticalresearchto conceptualizethe dynamics regardinghow coalition decision units can shape what governments do in the foreign policy arena. But, in marked contrast to the other two types of decision units, theredoes not exist a body of literaturethatexplicitly anddirectly addressesthe foreign policy decision making of politically autonomousactors. Even though some theoreticalwork has examined the foreign policy effects of organizedopposition that is relatively proximateto the decision unit (e.g., Snyder and Diesing, 1977; Lamborn, 1991; Snyder, 1991; Hagan, 1993; Rosecrance and Stein, 1993; Peterson, 1996), it is necessary to turn to the field of comparativepolitics and, in particular,to "coalition theory" for a useful systematic body of empirically groundedtheory.Although addressedto the larger question of governmentformation,the core theoretical concerns in this literature parallel ours. Like those involved in the development of theories of coalition formation,we seek to identifythe conditionsthatfacilitateagreementamong autonomous and contentious political actors, none of whom has the resources needed to implement a political decision on their own, be it controlling a cabinet or authorizinga policy decision. Throughoutthe coalition theoryliterature,therearetwo principaltheoretical argumentsaboutwhatmotivatespoliticalpartiesto agreetojoin a multipartycabinet. One of these is the "size principle"(Hinckley, 1981) which asserts thatkey to a player's behavioris its conservationof its own political resources.This principle is best embodiedin the notion of the "minimumwinning coalition"(Riker, 1962), which when appliedto cabinetformationstates thatthe numberof parties in a coalitionwill totalonly enoughto sustaina majorityof seats in the parliament. Inclusion of additionalparties would requirea furtherdistributionof resources (i.e., ministries) without any furthergain to the parties alreadyin the coalition. Similarlogic applies to building supportfor a policy initiative within a coalition decision unit.Namely,agreementwithina coalitiondecisionunitwill includeonly those supportersnecessaryfor its acceptanceby the entirebody accordingto whatever voting or other decision rule may apply. Inclusion of additional actors is avoidedbecause of the costs of (1) incorporatingtheirpreferencesandthus making furthercompromises, (2) expending more resourcesin the form of side paymentsto uncommittedparties,and/or(3) sharingcreditfor a popularpolicy which may have the effect of enhancingthe position of contendersfor power in the regime. In making foreign policy choices, the conservationof political resources by each player rationallyprecludesincluding additionalsupportersin an agreement (e.g., compromise)if their supportis not crucial to authorizingthe state to a particularcourse of action. Foreign Policy by Coalition 175 The second principle in coalition theory is what De Swaan (1973) calls "policy distance."This principle underlies the "minimumrange"theory found in the work of Leiserson (1966) and Axelrod (1970). The focus here is on the policy/ideological preferences of contending actors, with the assumption that rational "players wish to be members of winning coalitions with a minimal diversity" (De Swaan, 1973:75). Policy preferences are not intended to supplant Riker's concern for the weights and numbersof players. Rather,the two are combined as in Axelrod's (1970) conception of the "minimumconnected winning coalition" in which a cabinet is expected to have a minimum number of parties who are also ideologically proximate. This elaboration on Riker's minimumwinningcoalitionpermitsthe propositionthatagreementswithincoalition decision units will involve actors with relatively proximate preferences. For example, drawingupon Snyder and Diesing's (1977) and Vasquez's (1993) depictions of the broadpolicy divisions we often find in considerationsof foreign policy, "accommodationalists"and "soft-liners"would be more likely to band together with each other than with distinctly "hard-line"elements.5 Although the principles of size and policy space form the core of coalition theory, the comparativepolitics literaturehas not stopped with these two concepts. Importantempirical studies of cabinet formation have isolated major exceptions to the "minimumconnected winning coalition" in postwarWestern Europe, Israel, and Japan (see case studies in Browne and Dreijmanis, 1982; Luebbert, 1986; and Pridham, 1986). To account for these anomalies, additional factors have been suggested, including actors' willingness to bargain (Dodd, 1976), the presence/absenceof a "pivotalactor"(De Swaan, 1973), the structureof party preferences(Luebbert, 1984), the level of informationuncertainty (Dodd, 1976), the existence of consensus-makingnorms(Luebbert,1984; Baylis, 1989), and, at the other extreme, the complete absence of institutionalized decision rules (Druckman and Green, 1986). This research provides key insights relevant to understandingthe operation of decision units. They are incorporatedinto the coalition decision unit model in two ways: (1) as additional factors explaining the likelihood of agreementamong coalition actors or (2) as contextual factors that define decision-making rules and thereby condition the interplay among members of the coalition and the precise effects of size, polarization,and the other variables.6 acrossactors'policy positionscharacterizes not only mini5This "connectedness" mumwinningcoalitionsbut also the oversizedandundersizedones thatwe discuss below. 6To the best of ourknowledge,theredoes not appearto be consensusor synthesis concerningthe relativeimportanceof-or interrelationship among-the specificcontingenciesin the coalitiontheoryliterature. 176 Hagan, Everts, Fukui, and Stempel Among those factors affecting the chances of agreement, one particularly importantrefinement of the principles of size and policy space is De Swaan's (1973) notion of the "pivotal actor."A coalition member is pivotal on an issue "when the absolute difference between the combined votes (weights) of members on his right and of memberson his left is not greaterthan his own weight" (De Swaan, 1973:89). Any policy agreementmust thereforeinclude this actor, and because it can play off alternativepartnersits preferenceswill likely dominate an eventual agreement.When such an actor does not have strong preferences on the issue it can shape the decision by mediating conflicts between players on both sides of the issue in exchange for side paymentson other issues includingregimemaintenance.7Eitherway, this conceptof a pivotal actorrefines our notions of a minimum connected winning coalition by identifying more precisely the players necessary for policy agreementas well as anothersource of politicalpressurefor overcomingdeadlockamongotherwisepolarizedgroups. Another factor facilitating agreement is the willingness of one group to accept side paymentsand, more dramatically,political logrolling. The coalition formationliteraturenotes that often small, issue-orientedparties may join (and support) a government in exchange for control of a single ministry or policy issue (see Browne and Frendreis, 1980; Hinckley, 1981). According to Luebbert (1984:241), this kind of bargainingarrangementis possible if groupswithin the coalition have "tangential"preferences,that is, ones "thataddressdifferent issues and are sufficiently unrelatedso that party leaders do not consider them to be incompatible."A modificationof this aspect of coalition theory is directly applicable to coalition decision making because it suggests the possibility of breaking deadlock among politically antagonistic contenders. Advocates of a policy may be able to buy off a strong dissenter with concessions critical to them on anotherissue, somethingthatis especially likely in the case of a smaller, single-issue party with critical votes (e.g., the religious parties in Israel with theirdomestic concerns). The implicationsof side paymentscan also be seen in a largerlight using the theoreticalargumentdeveloped by Snyder (1991). With regard to logrolling, he makes the point that opposing actors may, in effect, offer each other payments that concern foreign policy issues. The implication 7This is especiallyimportantwhenan individualleaderhas an institutionally pivotalpositionin theregime,yet is notcommittedto a particularissue or,moredramatposition.Suchbehaviorcan ically,fails to asserttheauthorityof his orherinstitutional For createa politicalvacuumand lead to a de facto coalitionpolicy arrangement. ineffective leaders were and relativelypassive example,amongpre-WWIgovernments criticalto the emergenceof hard-linersin the governmentsof Germany(WilliamII) and Russia (NicholasII). Interestingly, just the reverseoccurredin France,where PresidentPoincar6was able to imposerelativecoherenceon the normallyweakand fragmentedgovernmentof the ThirdRepublic. Foreign Policy by Coalition 177 of his definition of the concept goes far beyond permitting agreementinstead,both sides implementtheirpolicies to the maximumdegree even though their actions may be contradictoryand/or overextend the state internationally. Such an outcome is the opposite of deadlock-one of overcommitmentrather than failure to act. A further variable-or actually, set of variables-affecting the agreement among coalition actors is their willingness to bargain with each other. "Willingness to bargain" assesses the degree to which there are "serious a priori constraintson parties which make them hesitantto negotiate or strikebargains" (Dodd, 1976:41). Constraintson bargaininginclude extreme distrustbetween parties, immediate competition for control of the government, and opposition to agreementsfrom factions within coalition parties (see Dodd, 1976; Lijphart, 1984; Luebbert, 1984; Pridham, 1986; and Steiner, 1974). Intense distrust or severe political competition between (and within) actors may lead members of the decision unit to define a policy problem as a "zero-sum"political issue. If political fortunes outweigh substantive policy merits, even actors with relatively similar policy positions are not going to be willing to bargainwith each other.At the other extreme, the existence of strong norms of "consensus government"(Lijphart,1984) and "amicableagreement"(Steiner, 1974) can greatly facilitate the coming together of parties with otherwise strong policy differences. Indeed, as illustratedby the Swedish and Israeli cases in the preceding article on single-group decision units, coalition cabinets can function as a single group if there are strongnorms of political trust,strongpartydiscipline, and habits of cooperation across ruling parties.8 Decision Rules Define the Contextfor Coalition Policymaking The other way of incorporatingthese additionalvariables into our exploration of the coalition decision unit is by combining several of them into what the framework calls a "key contingency variable"-in this instance, decisionmaking rules. The premise here is that decision rules define the context in which the propertiesof coalition size, policy space, pivotal actor, and willingness to bargaininteractto produce outcomes ranging from agreementto deadlock. As with the predominantleader and single-group decision units, the idea of decision rules permitsus to identify the "contingencies"that,in turn,point to alternativestates in which coalitions operate. The theoretical primacy given here to decision-making rules requires furtherexplanation.Decision rules are the generalproceduresand normsthatmem8 Fordiscussionsof single-group decisionmakingin coalitioncabinetssee chapters in volumeson theNetherlands editedby Everts(1985)andon NorthernEuropeedited by Sundelius(1982). 178 Hagan, Everts, Fukui, and Stempel bers of the decision unitrecognize as guiding interactionwithinthatauthoritative body. They are the "rules of the game [defining] the set of players, the set of permissible moves, the sequence of these moves, and the informationavailable before each move is made" (Tsebelis, 1990:93). They range from formal constitutional proceduresto more informal norms of behavior dictated by deeply rooted culturalpractices, widely accepted lessons of past political crises, or the like. Whatever their origin, these rules shape political interactionswithin the coalition decision unit and thus define the context within which the process of achieving agreementoccurs. Decision rules help us understandthe possibility of agreementamong autonomous actors in at least two ways. They stipulateprecisely what constitutes an authoritativeconsensus within the decision unit, that is, the number of votes requiredto win a debate and have the government adopt an initiative. Knowledge of this variableenables us to considerthe rangeof votes requiredto achieve a "minimumwinning coalition" among a subset of actors within the coalition. The other insight provided by decision rules stems from the degree to which these political proceduresand norms are well established, or "institutionalized" (Huntington, 1968; see also Hagan, 1993; Mansfield and Snyder, 1995). Wellestablished decision rules (whateverthe precise voting procedures)make clear the decision mechanisms by which separateactors are broughttogether, what kinds of resourcesmatterin weighting influence in the coalition, and how these weights are to be combined in arrivingat an agreement.They provide, in other words, "informationcertainty"concerningthe relative weights of each player's resources and the likely prior moves of each in a bargaining setting (Dodd, 1976:40). Beyond this, and in more subtle ways, knowledge of the extent to which decision rules are established provides clues into the overall political relations among the actors within the coalition (e.g., a history of distrust,views on the natureof political relationships,and habits of cooperation).In these two ways even simple information about rules can tell us much about how the decision-making game is played. The role given to decision rules here is not new. Their importance,as well as the institutions in which they are embedded, is found in several theoretical literatures.They are, of course, inherent in the coalition formation literature discussed above. Not only do they underlieDodd's (1976) conception of "information uncertainty"as a constraint on coalition formation, but some of the starkestempiricalexceptions to "minimumconnected winning coalitions"have been found in highly consensual systems (e.g., Luebbert, 1984) and in very unstable polities (e.g., Druckman and Green, 1986). Decision rules are also prominentin the broadercomparativepolitics literature,much of which accounts for anomalies in electoral and partisanbehavior in different national political settings(e.g., Steiner,1974;Lijphart,1984;ThelenandSteinmo, 1992).Although widely associated with the notion of games in "multiplearenas"(as noted ear- Foreign Policy by Coalition 179 lier), not to be forgotten is that part of Tsebelis's (1990) treatmentof "nested games" that raises the complications in rational behavior that can stem from variationsin institutionalcontext and the fact that such differences may lead to changes in the rules themselves. Rational choice theorists generally acknowledge that the political context is critical to uncovering the logic underlyingthe strategies and preferences of political actors; in other words, that "individuals acting rationally can arrive at different outcomes in different institutional settings" (Lalman, Oppenheimer,and Swistak, 1993).9 In adaptingideas concerning decision rules to coalition decision units, we propose to differentiateamong three general kinds of conditions under which coalitions may operate. Figure 1 diagramsthe questions we seek to answer in deciding which kind of coalition decision unit we are observing at any point in time. The first question simply ascertains whether or not clear decision rules exist; it is followed by a second question that distinguishes between the voting requirementsof non-unanimityand unanimityin those cases in which rules are well established. Although no claim is made here to have capturedthe many nuances extant in the literatureabout institutions,the interactionof these questions points to three general types of coalition decision settings. The middle pathof Figure 1 conformsmost directlyto the dominantthemesin coalitiontheory. This pathdescribes the situationin which the decision unit is governedby established voting rules thatpermitan authoritativedecision if a subset of actors (i.e., majority)achieves agreementon a particularcourse of action. It applies coalition theory'score notionof the "minimumwinningconnectedcoalition."But this path 9 Thecentrality of decisionrulesis suggestedin theinternational relationsliterature in "neoliberalinstitutionalism" (Keohane,1984, 1989;Keohane,Nye, andHoffmann, also Baldwin, 1993). Althougha theorycast to explaininternationalsystem 1993; dynamics(i.e., cooperation),thethrustof neoliberalinstitutionalism parallelsourown As in work of andaddsinsightsto thosein comparative the Keohane andother politics. our coalition model is relations concerned with international theorists, decision-making autonomous without players any supeexplainingcooperation(or agreement)among riorauthorityandin a conditionof potential"anarchy." Keohane's(1984, 1989)analyinconditions sis illustratesthatacrosstimeegoisticactorsnotonlycanlearncooperation of stability,butalsowill developcertain"rules,norms,andconventions"thatfacilitate Hisfunctionalargument is thata self-interested statewill seek(or"demand") agreement. for reasons: institutions(or "regimes") several international theyprovidea clearlegal for frameworkestablishingliability actions,theyprovideinformation,andtheyreduce the costs of the transactionsnecessaryfor coordinatedpolicies(Keohane,1984).The sameis likely trueof actorswithingovernments;well-establisheddecisionrulesin a domesticpoliticalsettingcanfacilitateagreementamongcontendingactors fragmented for these same reasons.Kegley (1987) has, to our knowledge,attemptedthe most detailedandinnovativeapplicationof "regimetheory"to theorizingaboutthedecisionmakingprocess.Ourconceptionof decisionrulesis similarto his notionof "procedural"decisionregimes. 180 Hagan, Everts, Fukui, and Stempel AreThereWellEstablishedRulesof DecisionMaking? No Yes Is Unaminity Required? No Unit Veto Model Minimum Connected Winning CoalitionModel Key Mediating Variables Anarchy Model Key Mediating Variables Key Mediating Variables * PivotalActor Present? * Willingnessto * SharedPolicy Orientation Exists? * Side Payments Possible? Bargainamong Groups? I No YesN No Yes * Predominant Actorwithinthe Regime? * Any Actorwith ExclusiveControlof Implementing Resources? No Forced Agreement Stable Deadlock Broad Compromise Fragmented Symbolic Action Yes FIGURE 1. Summarydecisiontreefor coalitiondecisionunits does not encompass the full range of coalition decision units extant in different political systems, issue areas, and situations.For purposesof systematic, crossnationalcomparisons,it is imperativeto consider two other politically extreme situations.One, which probablydoes not normallyoccur in the formationof governments(except duringnational crises), is where voting rules (or political necessity) requireunanimityamong all participants,in effect creatinga "unitveto" system in which any single actor can block the initiatives of all others. This situationis diagramedon the left side of Figure 1. The other situation,found on the figure's right side, portraysthe other extreme-essentially one of "political Foreign Policy by Coalition 181 anarchy,"in which established decision rules are largely absent and the overall political process is extremely fluid. Thereis maximumuncertaintyaboutthe political game, raising questions aboutnot only the locus and allocation of authority but also the largerpolitical stakes involved in the debate over policy. How DECISION RULES SHAPE POLICY Having sketched the components and the logic behind the coalition decision unit, we now turn to applying the framework to specific episodes of foreign policy decision making by coalitions of autonomous actors. We will use the following cases to illustratethe threetypes of coalition decision units described above: the Netherlandsand the 1979 NATOcruise missile crisis, Japanand the 1971 exchange ratecrisis, andIranandthe 1979 U.S. hostage crisis. These cases are, respectively, examples of the unit veto model, the minimum winning connected coalition model, and the anarchymodel as defined by the natureof their decision rules. The purpose of these cases is to explore the dynamics of coalition decision making in each type of configuration.Each case considers, how, first, decision rules condition the state of key coalition influences (again, coalition size, policy space,pivotalactors,andwillingnessto bargain)and,second,how, the rules shape the ways in which these factorsinteractto lead to a decision. The cases not only offer new insights into several non-U.S. cases but also lend initial supportto our reinterpretationof coalition theory and what it indicates are importantfactorsin determininghow coalitionsoperatein differentkindsof contexts. Unit VetoModel: The Netherlands and NATO Cruise Missiles As envisioned in the unit veto model, coalition decision units have welldefined political rules that require agreement by all members to support any policy initiative or the decision unit cannot act. The imperativeof "unanimity" stems from several factors. Constitutional arrangementsmay require that all parties formally commit to a particularcourse of action, for example, in the U.S. presidential system a declaration of war or implementation of a treaty requiresthe supportof both the presidentand the Congress. Otherimperatives might be less formal, yet equally compelling, in regimes in which executive authorityis sharedby multiple actors, as naturallyoccurs in parliamentarysystems with multipartycabinets. Although coalitions in stable parliamentarysystems often function as single groups, sometimes issues are so politicized that they threaten to bring down the government as a result of party or factional defections from the cabinet (leading to a vote of nonconfidence). If an issue is so important that no actor is willing or politically able to allow itself to be overruled, then the governmentbecomes incapable of action without bringing about its own collapse. Moreover,there are situationsin which well-established 182 Hagan, Everts, Fukui, and Stempel norms requirea consensus among participantsif a decision is to be accepted as legitimate. These normsmay be rooted in nationalpolitical culture,as in Japan, but they may also be the result of institutionalnorms that have evolved among established actors, for example, those rules thatgovern interservicerivalrieson U.S. defense budgetarydecisions. Whateverthe case may be, though, the common situationamong these coalition decision units is that all actors must agree to support a decision if it is to take place. This situation is extremely fragmented because any actor alone can block the actions of all others, while any agreement must incorporatethe full range of preferences within the decision unit. These conditions parallel those portrayedby Kaplan (1957) in his "unit veto" model of the internationalsystem. One example of such a unit veto situationwas the decision(s) by the Dutch governmentregardingNATO'sdeploymentof a new generationof nuclearweapons in WesternEuropein the early 1980s.'0 The issue was forced in December 1979 when the NATOministerialmeeting in Brussels, afterlong drawnout and difficult internationalnegotiations, adoptedthe so-called double trackdecision. This agreemententailed the modernizationof the alliance's nuclearforces with the deploymentof 572 new intermediaterange nuclearweapons, including 108 Pershing II missiles and 464 cruise missiles, from 1983 onwards.At the same time the NATO ministers called on the Soviet Union to begin arms control negotiations that could establish limitations on this category of nuclear weapons. The Netherlands was one of five European members of the alliance to receive the new missiles: 48 of the plannedcruise missiles were to be deployed on its territory.The cruise missile issue would remain a severe policy problem for the succession of Dutch governmentsbetween 1979 and 1986. In preparingits position with respect to the impendingNATOdecisions, the government of the Netherlands was subjected to sharp cross-pressures both from abroad and from inside the country." From abroad, the Dutch government was underparticularlystrongpressureto agree to and cooperate with the intended programof nuclear modernization,not only from the United States but also from the Federal Republic of Germany (the latter did not want to become isolated by being the only country on the continent to have the new missiles on its soil and feared that continuedDutch opposition would boost the o1Thissectionis condensedfromEverts(1991) wherethe substanceof the cruise missile issue and the applicationof the decisionunitsmodelis presentedin greater detail.Themostextensive,althoughsomewhatpartisan,studyof thedecision-making processin the cruise missile case was writtenby one of the participatingofficials (vanEenennaam,1988). '1Accountsof how consecutiveDutchgovernmentsfoughthardanddifficultbattles to obtainconcessionsfromtheirNATOpartnersarefoundin van Staden(1985), van Eenennaam(1988), andSoetendorp(1989). Foreign Policy by Coalition 183 morale of its own domestic opposition). Much of the leadership of the Dutch government were sympatheticto the argumentsof these allies. The leadership sharedthe others' assessment of the need to counterthe increased Soviet threat as well as the need for showing a united front to the Soviet Union in view of the outcome of the earlierdebate on the neutronwarheads.The ministers also worried about the possible effect of a negative deployment decision on the future credibility of the Netherlandswithin the NATO alliance. Refusal to accept the missiles would greatly undercutthe position of the Netherlandswithin NATO, leading to accusations that this relatively small country was a "footnote country"or a "freerider"within the alliance. Should they back down on the deployment issue, ministers feared the Netherlandswould risk losing their influence in future allied consultations about arms control. Yet, domestically, the government'sfreedom to maneuverwas constrained by a climate of antimissile public opinion that included not only parties on the Left but also relatively mainstreamchurch groups opposed to (increased) reliance on nuclearweapons for security.Many sharedthe peace movement'sopposition to all things nuclear (see Everts, 1983). Others, who did not reject all nuclear weapons, arguedthat to deploy new missiles in Europe would, if anything, lead to strategicde-coupling. Some arguedthat the new weapons would be not only superfluous but positively dangerousbecause they would increase the chances of nuclearwar restrictedto Europeand hence make such war more probable.It was also arguedthatdeploymentof the new missiles would fuel the arms race. The cruise missiles were seen as much more than a simple replacement of old weapons ("modernizeyour bicycle, buy a car,"as one of the critics put it). If there was a Soviet threat (and most opponents shared this view), a further arms buildup was seen as a dangerous and ineffective way of dealing with it. The opposition was fanned by what was seen as dangerousloose talk by members of the Reagan administrationon the possibility of a "limited nuclear war in Europe."These and other argumentsof a more emotional naturewould become the common stock of the mounting domestic opposition in the years following NATO's 1979 "double track"decision. This polarized domestic political atmosphere greatly complicated Dutch foreign policymaking. Under normal conditions, foreign policymaking in the Netherlandswas an elite affair in which critical issues were handled by a subgroup of cabinet ministers with responsibilities for foreign affairs.12 However, generalprocedurewas not a smallmatterfor countriesthathad multiparty and systems thusgenerallycoalitiongovernments.Likea numberof Europeandemocracies(Baylis, 1989),well-establishednormsof interpartycooperationandintraparty andpermittedDutchcabinetsto operateas singledisciplinefacilitatedaccommodation decision units. See group Lijphart(1968) for a moregeneraltreatmentof normsof across the divisionsin the Dutchpoliticalsystem. "accommodation" 12This 184 Hagan, Everts, Fukui, and Stempel this "classical"patternof cabinet decision making was erodedto a considerable extent by the politicization of foreign policy issues duringthe period preceding the cruise missile episode. The democratizationprocesses in Dutch society in general, which had takenplace togetherwith an erosion of the nation'spostwar consensus on defense in the 1970s, had increased not only the desire of groups within society to participatein the foreign policy process, but also the wish of Parliamentfor a largersay in both decision making and control over the execution of foreign policy (see Everts, 1983). One result was thatcabinets were now vulnerableto being removed from office as a result of votes of no-confidence supportedby dissidents within ruling parties. In fact, in the years precedingthe 1979 "double track"decision, there were no less than three times that a governmentcrisis was threatenedover an issue of foreign policy. That such events had happenedhardlyever in the past is testimony to the new role of Parliament in the making of foreign policy and the relative weakness of the executive. On controversial issues such as the cruise missile deployment the cabinet could ignore the wishes of the Parliamentonly at its peril.13 The Dutch cabinets handling the cruise missile issue were internally fragmented and thus not in a good position to act decisively on this problem.On the one hand, the institutionalpositions of individual ministers (and therefore the party or faction each represented) are traditionallyvery strong. Dutch prime ministers are not predominant,technically serving merely as the chair of the Council of Ministers and in political practice as not much more than "primus inter pares." They cannot appoint ministers or force their resignation at will; the prime minister's role involves mainly the general coordinationof government policies with respect to "politicallysensitive"issues (even if he has strong views about the issues). And, on the other hand, the ability of the cabinet to act as a single group in making policy (and survive politically) is furthercomplicated by the fact that Dutch governments are almost always multipartycoalitions. Because the electoral system is one of proportionalrepresentationnone of the Dutch political parties has ever been able to win the majorityof parliamentary seats necessary to rule alone, and therefore cabinets are formed by coalitions of two or more parties.Throughoutthe cruise missile crisis the Netherlandshad a succession of coalition cabinets, that is, (1) from 1977 to 1981, a center-rightcoalition between the ChristianDemocrats (CDA) and a smaller Liberal Party (VVD), followed by (2) a center-left cabinet with the CDA, the LabourParty (PvdA), and Democrats '66 (left liberals) which lasted barely a year, and, finally, (3) a renewed center-rightcoalition with the CDA and VVD from 1982 to 1986. On the degreeto whichParliamenthadbecomean independentactorin the foreign policy processat this time see the studiesin Everts(1985). 13 Foreign Policy by Coalition 185 Compoundingthe internalfragmentationof these cabinets was their wider vulnerability to being overthrown by Parliamenton the cruise missile issue. Such was especially true in the case of the CDA-VVD center-rightcoalitions. These two cabinets, which were in power for all but one of the years of the cruise missile episode, had very small majoritiesin the Parliament.Indeed, the 1977-81 coalition had a majority of only two seats in the 150-memberDutch Parliament;the defection of just a few individual members could bring down the entire cabinet (as was threatenedover foreign and defense issues several times in the late 1970s). Given these small majorities, it was highly probable that government positions on the question of the cruise missile deployment would play an importantrole in any parliamentaryelection. Public dissatisfaction with governmentpolicies could easily contributeto electoral defeats. And, in fact, the cruise missile issue played a majorrole in the 1981 general election campaign, the outcomes of which favored the left-leaning parties and resulted in the brief center-left coalition between the CDA and the Labour Party and Democrats '66. (Notably, althoughthis center-leftcoalition had a largerparliamentarymajority,it suffered from greaterpolicy divisions and did not offer a durablealternativeto the center-rightCDA and LiberalParty coalition, despite its relatively large majority.) Grantingthe severe constraintsthat fostered virtual deadlock among members of the Dutch cabinets on the cruise missile issue, are there any factors within coalition theory that, if present, might overcome these pressures for continued disagreementand promote some type of agreementwithin the Dutch government?Several presentthemselves. One is the presence of a pivotal actor in Dutch politics such as the ChristianDemocratic Party.This party was essential for many years to any cabinet, being both the largest of the Dutch parties and the only one able to transcendideological issues.14 But in this instance the CDA's ability to impose coherence on the cabinet was very limited because of its own internalfragmentation.In the period underconsideration,the Christian Democrats were in the process of merging three parties (two Protestant,one Roman Catholic) into one new one-the CDA. At this time the merger was proving to be a difficult process. Markeddivisions between the various groups 14The Dutchpartysystemis characterized not only by a cleavagealongthe (socio- economic)left-rightcontinuum,but also by a cleavagebetweenreligiouspartiesand moresecularones. Whilethe latteris responsiblefor divisionson nonmaterialissues like educationand abortion,the left-rightdimensionis otherwisedominant.Within this structureuntilrecentlythe balancewas maintainedfor all practicalpurposesby the ChristianDemocratswho held the centergroundand as a resultfor a long time playeda pivotalrole in Dutchpolitics,being able to choosemoreor less freelywith whomthey wouldbuilda coalition.Center-right, andless frequentlycenter-leftcoalitions (of variouscomposition),alwaysincludedthe ChristianDemocrats. 186 Hagan, Everts, Fukui, and Stempel along the left-right dimension were much in evidence, especially on foreign and defense policy. When the new cabinet was formed afterthe 1977 elections, eleven CDA members of Parliament(coming mainly from the former Protestant Anti-RevolutionaryParty which would have preferreda center-left coalition) refused to give the new cabinet their formal blessing and reserved the right to judge it on its concrete policies. This group of "dissidents"selected a few issues on which they showed their "leftist"credentials. Probablybecause of their visibility and symbolic nature,these issues included a numberof questions of foreign policy, such as the delivery of enriched uranium to Brazil, sanctions against South Africa, and neutronwarheads.By using their implicit veto power andjoining hands with the parties of the Left, which rejected modernization outright, the dissidents could make it very difficult-if not impossible-for the governmentto secure a parliamentarymajorityon the issue of cruise missiles. The "dissident" faction was, in effect, one of the actors within the Dutch coalition decision unit on this issue. Anotherfactor that might have promotedagreementamong membersof the Dutch cabinets is the possibility of what in coalition theory is called the formation of a diverse "nationalunity coalition" in the face of foreign peril or, in the case of domestic pressures,a common domestic strategyto ensure the government's survival. The cruise missile issue certainly posed severe pressures on the government of the Netherlands.As noted above, NATO and the Reagan administrationwere strongly pressuringthe Dutch government to respond to the Soviet threat.And even if Dutch officials were not quite as alarmedas these other bodies by the Soviet threat,most were worriedthat the credibility of the Netherlandswithin the NATOalliance would be severely damaged.Yet domestic political pressuresworked in exactly the opposite directionfrom what coalition theorypredicts.The traditionallypro-NATOforeign policy elite andparties were underpublic and popularpressurenot to accept the missiles. The leadership could not mobilize supportbehindthe NATOcommitment(e.g., the nationalism cardwas not viable), andapproachingelections increasedpoliticalpressures on the antinuclearopposition to maintain its credibility within the Parliament and the coalition. In short, domestic and internationalpressures were at odds with one another.Workingas "cross-pressures,"internationalanddomesticpressuresreinforced-not diminished-the divisions withinthe alreadydividedcoalition cabinet. One final way suggested by coalition theory to achieve agreementwithin a coalition requiringunanimity is through side payments made by policy advocates to potential dissenters. Such a scenario would seem quite possible in the Dutch case given the key role of the small "dissident"faction within the Christian Democratic Party.However, even if these dissidents were willing to make concessions, they were not in a political position to do so because of their strong ties to the public opposition. These dissidents were under particular Foreign Policy by Coalition 187 pressure from the churches, which could appeal to the fact that the new CDA party wanted explicitly to be a "Christian"party.They were an importantasset for the church-sponsoredpeace organizations,IKV andPax Christi,which played a central role in the societal debate over nuclear weapons in general. And they were centralactorsin the emerging broadcoalition of groups,parties, and organizations opposing the deployment of new nuclear weapons. Having access to the churches,to which most CDA voters were attached,and being able to appeal to commonreligious ground,these peace organizationswere able to makeinroads into the political center. Agreeing to the deployment of cruise missiles at the height of the controversy would have destroyed the dissident faction. In sum, the Dutch cabinets were severely constrained in dealing with the cruise missile crisis. Political elites were polarizedover the cruise missile question and governing authoritywas fragmentedto the extent that any action on the issue would bring down the government. Furthermore,factors that might have overcome these constraints all served to exacerbate-not dilute-them; for example, the pivotal CDA was divided, strong foreign and domestic pressures cut in opposite ways, and the dissidents were unwilling to accept side payments. The culmination of these pressures was largely a deadlock on the cruise missile issue. In subscribingto the communiqueof the 1979 NATOministerial meeting, the Dutch accepted the argumentsfor modernization(but also stated that productionof the missiles was an independentAmerican decision), the idea of deploying 572 missiles in "selected countries,"and their shareof the common costs. At the same time they postponed their own decision on deployment within their borders.The basic reality was that the governmentcould not act consistently in one direction or the other;it could not commit itself fully to either accepting the missiles or rejecting them. A single, coherent course of action was precluded. As a consequence, they engaged in minimalist foreign policy behavior regardingthe cruise missile issue for a numberof years. All this discussion is not meant to suggest that there was complete disarray in Dutch foreign policy decision making. Although deadlocked, the tensions within the government were contained effectively in a way that reflected an orderly and sustained "paperingover of differences," resulting in some diplomatic activity within the NATO context. In the ensuing parliamentarydebate, cabinet ministers from both the CDA and VVD worked hard (and with some difficulty) to picture Dutch participationin the NATO agreement as substantively meaningful and yet satisfactory to all parties at home and abroad.The criticisms of CDA dissidents in Parliamentwere muted. Indeed, they finally recoiled at the prospect of a cabinet crisis, refusing to supporta virtual motion of no confidence proposed by the opposition and merely restatingthat they did not accept responsibility for a deployment decision. The dissidents preferredto remain silent when the chips were down and the unity of their party was at stake. This behaviorpoints to the furtherimportanceof the presence or absence 188 Hagan, Everts, Fukui, and Stempel of decision-making norms. It is striking that none of the parties in the Dutch government-despite their political differences-sought to appeal aggressively to the wider public or challenge the political system itself. This fact significantly enhanced the ability of the Netherlandsto contain NATO alarm and pressures. The existence of strong consensus-making norms (Luebbert, 1984; Baylis, 1989) in Dutch politics enabledthe deeply divided coalition governmentsto function with political restraintat home and abroad. The deadlock over the deploymentof cruise missiles finally came to an end in 1985. Furtherpostponement of the decision was not possible beyond the NATO deadline of November 1, 1985. At that point the Dutch government decided to accept the missiles. Several factors contributedto this positive decision, even though the opposition had demonstratedone last show of strength with a petition drive requesting Parliamentnot to agree to deployment. This action was not sufficient to sway the attitudesof even the wavering CDA members of Parliament.The opposition had run its course and the left wing of the ChristianDemocrats had, for a variety of unrelatedreasons, lost much of its strengthwithin the decision unit. In other words, the pro-missile leadershipof the ChristianDemocraticPartywas now politically able to committo the deployment of the missiles. The change in the decision unit was crucial to breakingthe deadlock over the issue. However, because Dutch cabinets had well-established rules governing decision making, they had been able to handle their five-year deadlock in an orderly mannerso that it remainedcontained and did not escalate into a wider political crisis either at home or within NATO. Minimum Winning Connected Coalition Model: Japan and the Exchange Rate Crisis Not all coalition decision units with established decision rules requireunanimity. Substantivelymeaningfulforeignpolicy actioncan requireagreementamong only a subset of decision unit members.As noted earlier,it is this situationthat is most directly analogous to the parliament-wideprocess of governmentformation in which only some parties enter the cabinet. In our case, established decision rules require that some kind of majority (one half, two thirds, etc.) reach a decision. In contrastto the setting requiringunanimity,it is important here to understandthe relatively proximatepreferencesof the subset of actors that are in agreementand the processes that broughtthem together.Indeed, the outcome of this process presents the very real possibility of one side winning for the most part or, at the least, a compromise among actors with relatively proximatepreferences.Whicheveris the case, though,the decisionwill be defined by the need of participantsto conserve influence over policy by making minimum compromises. In this way the logic of the minimum winning connected coalition underlies the dynamics of coalition decision units with established Foreign Policy by Coalition 189 rules that do not requireunanimity.This overarchingargumentcan be supplementedby additionalconcepts suggested by coalition theorythatfurtherdefine, if not restrict, the evolution of agreement. The case of Japan's 1971 exchange rate crisis illustrates the dynamics of coalition decision units with rules that are well established but do not require unanimity.15As in the Dutch case, this crisis broughtsevere internationalpressure to bear on the Japanese government. It was provoked by the August 15th speech by U.S. president Richard Nixon in which he announced a new and drastic domestic economic policy initiative, soon dubbed the New Economic Policy, which included the suspension of the convertibility of the dollar and the imposition of an across-the-board10 percent import surcharge.The announcement was unambiguously intended to force the United States' major trading partners,especially West Germany and Japan, to help balance the U.S. trade and currentaccounts and to rescue its domestic economy from deepening recession by, above all, revaluingtheir own undervaluedcurrencies.As immediately understood by most governments around the world, the announcement also sounded the death knell for the Bretton Woods monetary system which had supportedthe postwar internationaleconomic system for a quartercentury. This component of the "Nixon shocks" struck at the post-WWII mindset sharedby the Japaneseleadership-that is, the rulingLiberalDemocraticParty, the powerful economic ministries,andthe business community-concerning the existing international economic, especially monetary, system. Throughout the postwar period the Bretton Woods system of internationalmonetary management and coordination had been highly beneficial to Japan as well as to West Europeaneconomies and had helped them recover from the devastating effects of World War II within a remarkablyshort time and then achieve sustained growth at an unprecedentedrate. The yen-dollar exchange rate set in 1949 at 360 yen per dollar (taken as part of the sweeping postwar economic reforms underAmerican direction) increasingly undervaluedthe yen after the mid-1950s and thereby significantly addedto the price competitiveness of Japanese exports in internationalmarkets.The 360 per dollar exchange rate thus served as a key stimulus and incentive for the expansion of Japan'sexport trade and the growth of its export-orientedindustries(Shinohara,1961, 1973:18-34; Yoshitomi, 1977:20-25). The mindset nurturedby this highly favorable experience predisposed the Japanese, both inside and outside government, to resist any suggestion of a significant change in the system, especially a revaluationof the yen. '5This case is explainedin greaterdetailin Fukui(1989); see also Fukui(1979, 1987).Theresearchis basedon thatauthor'sinterviewsof key Japanesepolicymakers as well as accountsin Japanesenewspapersandotherpublications.Due to spacelimitationsthese sourceshavebeentrimmedherebut areavailablein the longerpiece. 190 Hagan, Everts, Fukui, and Stempel When the chronic and worsening tradeimbalanceswith Japanand the European Economic Communitynations led Washingtonto make such a suggestion in the late 1960s and early 1970s, Tokyo resisted and fought it. On the eve of the exchange rate crisis, the Japanese government was firmly set against a revaluationof the yen and, for thatreason, also againsta fundamentalchange in the Bretton Woods monetary system, both out of habit and for specific policy reasons. A departurefrom the Y 360 per dollar exchange rate would have seriously threatened Japan's key industries and devastated many of its exportdependent small businesses. Inasmuch as the key industries were the largest and most reliable contributorsto the political funds of the ruling LiberalDemocraticParty (LDP) and small businessmenwere among its staunchestsupporters at the polls, the anticipatedimpacts of a yen revaluationon their fortunes was a cause for serious concern in the cabinet and among some of the Ministry of Finance (MOF) and Bank of Japan(BOJ) bureaucrats(Sasaki, 1973:34). Moreover,the mindsetandpredispositionscreatedby twenty years of highly profitable experience under the Bretton Woods system was significantly reinforced in 1970 by a downturnin the domestic economy and the Japanese government'sdeterminationto nip the incipient recession in the bud. The governmentin Tokyo respondedto the downturnwith a series of reductionsin the official discountratebeginningin October 1970 and a cabinetdecision in March 1971 to speed up public works spending budgeted for the 1971 fiscal year (Okurasho, 1982:4). As Washington'scall for a yen revaluationbecame more and more audible and insistent, Tokyo announced a programof eight specific defensive measures in early June. Known officially as the Program for the Promotion of ComprehensiveForeign Economic Policy, this eight-point programwas unmistakablyaimed at wardingoff the growing pressurefor a revaluation of the yen by controlling Japanese exports and increasing imports, thus helping Washingtonbalance its own tradeaccountand hopefully get off Japan's back (Watanabe,1981:198). The exchange rate crisis was of paramountsignificance to the Japanese government.As such, it would be expected that the crisis would be handledby the country's senior political leadership, that is, the cabinet controlled by the leadership of the Liberal Democratic Party. And, in some respects, the LDP leadershipwas in a good political position to handlethe crisis. In contrastto the Dutch cabinets above, the LDP was quite secure in its control of the cabinet. The LDP had been in power throughoutthe postwar period and had a sizable majoritywithin the national legislature, the Diet (and at no time had dissident factions in Parliamentengineered the downfall of the cabinet by a vote of no confidence). Yet the LDP was itself significantly fragmentedby its own structural factions which were at this time like mini-partiesthat competed for control of the party's top leadershipposts. Although insulated from parliamentary overthrow,competition among factions was intense and it was not unusual for Foreign Policy by Coalition 191 cabinets to change as a result of policy failures or a shift in the balances among the factions composing the cabinet. As a result, Japaneseforeign policymaking has typically involved great caution and a carefully crafted consensus on controversial issues-precisely the sort of constraintswe might expect in a coalition of multiple autonomousgroups.16 Japanese foreign policymaking in the exchange rate crisis did not involve the full LDP cabinet, even though that same cabinet dominated decision making on two other simultaneous issues-Okinawa reversion (Fukui, 1975; Destler et al., 1976) and recognition of the People's Republic of China (Ogata, 1988). Yes, the Japanese cabinet met immediately after the Nixon announcements, deciding that Japan should resist the U.S. move through multilateral consultations while implementing the eight-point stimulus expeditiously. Furthermore, a subsequent emergency meeting of the cabinet subcommittee, the Council of Economic Ministers, produced consensus decisions that sought to maintainthe currentexchange rate along with engaging in diplomatic consultations and initiating a domestic economic stimulus. But the actual locus of decision making moved to the Ministry of Finance and its various officials, including both of its senior ministers, their advisers, and the semiautonomous Bank of Japan. Despite the paramountpolitical importance of this crisis, the prime minister and other LDP leaders adhered to a well-established rule of decision making within the Japanesegovernmenton issues that do not require legislative action; such issues are normally left to bureaucratsto decide, especially if the problems are highly technical. This tendency was reinforcedby the currentprime minister, Sato Eisaku, who not only was preoccupied with other issues with the United States (Okinawa and the textile dispute), but was an extremely cautious politician who would wait for consensus to form among his subordinatesbefore he would act on any controversial policy issue (Kusuda, 1983). Still, decision making within the Ministry of Finance did not take the form of a single group underthe authorityof Ministerof Finance Mizuta Mikio. The de facto dispersion of power across separate actors (particularly the semiautonomousBank of Japan)was apparentfrom the beginning of the MOF deliberations. In its initial meetings, soon after the August 16th cabinet meeting, on Japaneseforeignpolicydecisionmakinghighlightsthe 16In fact,mostliterature severe constraintsposed by factionalpolitics within the LiberalDemocraticParty cabinet.Along with the overviewscited in footnote 1, see case studiesof security issues by Hellmann(1969), Fukui(1970, 1977b),andWelfield(1976) as well as of economicissuesby Destler,Fukui,andSato(1979) andFukui(1979).This literature, particularlythat dealing with economic issues, challengesthe view that Japan's bureaucratic-dominated governmentacts,as a rule,withunityof purpose,consistency, in and the nation'sbestinterest(Vogel,1979;Johnson,1982;Pempel,1982). foresight, 192 Hagan, Everts, Fukui, and Stempel senior MOF officials and a few BOJ representativesmet to discuss and decide whether or not they should close the Tokyo foreign exchange marketthe next day. The officials were immediately divided over the issue. While the two top MOFofficials, Vice MinisterHatoyamalichiro andDeputyVice MinisterHosomi Takashi,favoredthe closure of the marketin orderto avoid furtherconfusion in the marketplace,the ministry's InternationalFinance Bureau (IFB) officials opposed such action on the groundsthat the marketcould not possibly be kept closed for more than a week without causing serious problems for trade transactions and that, when the marketwas reopened, the governmentwould be put in a position where it would have to permiteither a revaluationof the yen or the introductionof a floating rate system or both (Yamamura,1984:140-141).17 From the IFB officials' point of view, the only sensible thing to do under the circumstances was to keep the market open, implement the eight-point program, and wait for a multilateralsolution to be worked out among the major industrialnations. MOF adviser Kashiwagi Yusuke and BOJ deputy governor Inoue Shiro sided with the IFB officials.'8 Since neither side was willing to change its mind, they agreed to presentboth views to Finance Minister Mizuta and let him decide. Mizuta first postponed the decision until the next morning, then decided to keep the marketopen, in effect supportingthe IFB against the vice minister. The initial decisions taken on August 16thpoint to several featuresof coalition decision making within the Ministry of Finance. First, note that the MOF coalition decision unit did take action and that these decisions did not require unanimity.Minister Mizuta agreed to actions resisting American pressure for devaluationin a way that overruledtwo of the top MOF officials-a vice minister and a deputyvice minister.In essence, the opinionof the "currencyexperts" in the ministryprevailedover the top amateurofficials, as journalistsobserved a few years later.19 Second, Minister Mizuta's decision should not be taken to suggest that he was operating as a predominantleader. As minister of finance, he acted as arbiterbetween the contending groups of MOF and BOJ bureaucratsand ruled 17Also Yomiuri shimbun,August 18, 1971. 8The experts insisted on keeping the marketopen partlybecause of the overwhelming weight (92%) of the dollar in Japaneseforeign transactions(Watanabe,1981:198199) and partly because Japanese banks authorizedto handle foreign exchange had accumulatedhuge dollar reserves, estimated at the time to be worth about Y 1 trillion at the par value, underan export promotionprogramwith the BOJ'sdeliberateencouragement. In light of the uneven distributionof the dollar holdings among the banksand for fear of giving the impressionof unfairnessin its treatmentof them all, the BOJ also opposed the shift to a floating rate system (Yamamura,1984:142-143). 19Asahi shimbunkeizaibu, 1974:240. Foreign Policy by Coalition 193 in favor of the IFB experts' recommendationto keep the marketopen. To be a predominantleader he would have had to be able to make a decision on his own and then impose it on the entire government, including the MOF and BOJ bureaucrats.Mizuta was clearly not in such a position. He could not make a decision unless he was asked to do so by the bureaucratsand, even when he was asked to do so, was restrictedto the options recommendedby the bureaucrats. To have acted on his own would have violated the well-established rule of decision making in the Japanesegovernmenton issues not requiringlegislative action mentioned above. In short, Mizuta acted, as any Japanese minister in a similar position would have, as an arbiterto choose between the two courses of action recommendedby the bureaucrats,not as a predominantleader with freedom to choose any course of action he personally preferred.20 Third, decision-making authorityultimately was centered around autonomous bureaucraticelements withinthe Ministryof Finance.The well-established rules of the game requiredthe involvement of experts in both the MOF and the BOJ as equals in practice, if not in theory.On strictly legal grounds,the cabinet or a subcommittee of it could have acted as a dominant group. If neither did then the MOF bureaucratscould have made most of the key decisions without the concurrence of their BOJ counterparts.Given the force of tradition and custom, however, and the strong consensual norm that pervadesJapanesesociety, it would have been quite extraordinaryfor either the cabinet or the MOF bureaucratsto claim such a role (Richardson and Flanagan, 1984:333-336; cf. Krauss, Rohlen, and Steinhoff, 1984). As it turnedout, neither did, and the MOF and BOJ bureaucratswere jointly responsible for all the key decisions, while a cabinet subcommittee,the Council of Economic Ministers, was nominally involved in the decision-makingprocess. As will be seen below, the power of the Bank of Japan is particularly striking-even in comparison to other experts in the MOF. Although the BOJ is legally subordinateto the MOF, the two groupscooperateclosely and make decisions by consensus. This procedure is partly due to traditionand custom and partly to the fact that the BOJ's contingent of experts, concentratedin its Research and Statistics Department,is both largerand, accordingto several insiders, more capable than its counterpart in the MOF's Research and Planning Division. Japanesepolicy and decision making did not remain stagnant,even though the full cabinet and the Council of Economic Advisors confirmed these deci- 20The sameappliedto Mizuta'sandBOJgovernorSasaki'sactionson the shiftto a floatingratesystemandthe centralissue of a yen revaluation.Onbothof theseissues MizutaandSasakisimplyratifiedthe consensusdecisionspreviouslyreachedamong the bureaucrats. 194 Hagan, Everts, Fukui, and Stempel sions the next day.21 Within a couple of days (by August 19th), some business leaders and academic economists close to the governmenthad begun to call for a revaluationof the yen, not because they preferreda floating rate system but because they believed the exchange rate system to be on the verge of collapse unless the yen was revalued (Takeuchi, 1988:205). While political leadership in the cabinet and the Council of Economic Advisors refused to yield to such a view and stuck to their commitmentto defend the cheap yen, there was important movement elsewhere within the governmentamong bureaucraticofficials. As was the case earlier,key decisions were made by the MOF and BOJ officials and no politicians, except membersof the Council of Economic Advisors, were involved in the process to any significant extent. In fact, it was from within the MOF-BOJcoalition that Japanesepolicy began to change. The change in governmentpolicy began on August 22nd, when senior MOF officials, including MinisterMizuta, met in a secret conference where Director Sagami Takehiroof the Research and Planning Division of the Minister's Secretariatpresenteda policy paperthat outlined in considerabledetail what steps the Japanese governmentcould and should take in coping with the deepening crisis. He began with the argumentthat, should Japancontinue to stick to the eight-point programalone and persist in its insistence on the maintenanceof the existing dollar-yen exchange rate, it would only be isolated from the international community; therefore, Japan had really no choice but to change its policy (Yamamura,1984:149). He then suggested that, theoretically,four policy alternativeswere available: (1) increase the range of exchange rate fluctuation permitted under the existing fixed rate system (1% in either direction), (2) adopt a dual rate-system (as France had done), (3) unilaterallyrevalue the yen by either 10 percent or 15 percent, or (4) adopt a floating rate system. He proceeded to point out that neither alternative(1) nor (2) would help solve the problem at all, but alternative (3) with a 10 percent increase in the value of the yen was worth considering while a 15 percent increase would have too deflationaryan impact on the economy, and, finally, alternative(4) might also 21 On the afternoon of the 17th, the regular cabinet meeting was followed by an emergency meeting of the cabinet subcommittee,the Council of Economic Ministers, where consensus decisions were made on several pressing issues: first, that exchange rate adjustmentsshould be sought througha multilateralconsultationat the forthcoming meeting of the Group of Ten (G-10) finance ministers; second, that the yen's currentpar value (i.e., $1 = Y 360) must be maintainedat all costs; and third,that the eight-pointprogrammustbe fully implemented(Okamoto,1972:324).The ministers to Europeandthe UnitedStateson also decidedto senda governmentrepresentative aninformation-gathering mission.MOFadviserKashiwagiwasappointedas theemissary and left Tokyothe followingday,the 18th,for Paris,fromthereto proceedto Beforehe left Tokyohe toldhis MOFcolleaguesnotto close LondonandWashington. the marketuntilhe returned,probablyon the 23rd. Foreign Policy by Coalition 195 be worth considering. This secret MOF meeting apparentlybegan with the consensus that a yen revaluationwas unavoidable and ended with a new consensus that the adoption of a floating rate system was also unavoidable.22 The new MOF consensus was conveyed to the BOJ leadershipthe next day, Monday, the 23rd. The BOJ's senior officials, mainly from its Foreign and Business Departments,met and reaffirmedtheir supportof the fixed rate system ostensibly on groundsthat a floating rate system would seriously interfere with transactionsbetween Japanese exporters and foreign importers (Yamamura, 1984:150-151). They agreed, however, that it would not be possible to maintainthe fixed rate system indefinitely and that,moreover,the MOF had the right to change the yen's par value in any case with the BOJ having no choice but to accept the MOF's decision. Then, early on the morningof the 24th, BOJ governor Sasaki Tadashi and MOF minister Mizuta met. Sasaki expressed his personal support for the shift to a floating rate system but asked for a few additional days, until the 28th, before a final decision was announced, so that he might bring opponents among BOJ officials around.The two agreed to a five-point memorandumof understanding:(1) adoption of a floating exchange rate system in the spirit of internationalcooperation;(2) implementationof the new system at the earliest possible date, but no later than the end of the week, that is, Saturday,the 28th; (3) issuance of a government statement upon the implementationof the new system; (4) interventionby the BOJ in the foreign exchange marketin orderto preventspeculativetransactions;and (5) BOJ intervention when the yen rose by a certain percentage (about 7-8%).23 This interministerialagreementreflected the recognition by MOF and BOJ officials of the futility of furtherresistance to accepting a floating rate and, as such, reflected the preferencesof key MOF and BOJ officials-ones that overrode opposition by a minority of bureaucratsas well as the Council of Economic Ministers.Yet it was a broadcompromise.Not only was the decision not implemented until August 28th, but the joint announcementby Mizuta and Sasaki stemmed from mutual concessions: it referredto the immediate shift to 22MOFadviserKashiwagi,one of the originaldecisionmakers,returnedto Tokyo on the 23rd and reportedthat same night to the meetingof seniorMOF officials, includingMizuta,thatmostEuropeangovernmentswouldrefrainfromactinghastily on theirown andwouldwaitfora multilateral forumto agreeon a commonaction.He also reiteratedhis view thatJapanshouldnotunilaterallyrevaluetheyen (Asahishimbun,August24, 1971;Uchino, 1976:514).Kashiwagi'sview, however,was clearlya minorityopinionnow andfailedto have mucheffect on the new consensusthathad emergedamongthe ministryofficialsduringhis absence. 23 The TakeuchiMichio spaceforthepercentagewasleftblank,butDirector-General of theMOFMinister'sSecretariat, whoattendedthemeeting,jotteddownthe numbers in his minutesof the meeting. 196 Hagan, Everts, Fukui, and Stempel a floating system in points 1 and 2 in deference to the MOF's new position, while it also referred in points 4 and 5 to the BOJ's intention to continue to intervene in the foreign exchange market when the expected change in the yen-dollarexchange rate reached a certain magnitude.Point 3 aboutthe timing of the official announcementof the MOF/BOJcompromisedecisions was obviously decided by consensus. This compromise was then ratified by the cabinet ex post facto. In their simultaneousbut separatepress conferences, Mizuta and Sasakiboth emphasizedthe provisionalcharacterof the decision andtheirintention to maintaintight controls over the foreign exchange marketand to let the BOJ continue to intervene whenever necessary, that is, not only to practice a dirty float but also to try to returneventually to a fixed rate system. In sum, althoughthe "dirtyfloat" was extremely expensive for the Japanese government, this compromise avoided deadlock and enabled the fragmented Japanese government to adjust relatively quickly to new realities in the internationaleconomy by abandoningits priorconsensus supportingfixed exchange rates. Several factors permittedthis compromise to occur. One was that established decision rules did not require unanimity within the coalition decision unit. Thus opponents within the unit could be overridden (e.g., the BOJ) or were, in fact, overruled (e.g, the minority of bureaucratsled by Kashiwagi). Another was the range of positions on the issue, that is, those officials who recognized the need to adjusthad relatively proximatepositions and were willing to bargainwith one another.Finally, the nation's political leadershipin the cabinet was willing to defer the decisions to the ministerial experts, and as a result the decision did not invoke the factional deadlock that often occurredon other issues. These well-established norms not only narrowedthe range of policy positions but also served to depoliticize the issue so that parties were willing and able to bargain without appealing to supportersin the wider political arena.All this is in sharpcontrastto the deadlocked Dutch governmentwhere U.S. missiles threatenedthe government's survival. However, like its Dutch counterpart,the established decision rules in the Japanese government served to contain the crisis. Such cannot be said of our third case: Iran's handling of the American hostage crisis. Anarchy Model: The Iranian Hostage Crisis with the United States The defining feature of this case is the near total absence of accepted, basic rules for decision making, a situation that is typical of less-institutionalized political systems (see Hagan, 1993: ch. 2). The absence of accepted decision rules greatly complicates the policymaking process, especially when power is dispersed across actors within a coalition decision unit. This complexity is manifest in several basic ways, each of which extends Dodd's (1976) notions Foreign Policy by Coalition 197 regarding information uncertainty to far greater extremes than found in any Westerndemocracy.First, as suggested by Druckmanand Green (1986) in their coalition analysis of post-Marcos regimes in the Philippines, the absence of established proceduressuch as voting creates fundamentaluncertaintiesabout what kinds of political resources (force, legitimacy, economic benefits) are necessary to influence the natureof any decision and in what amounts.Second, this uncertaintysuggests that when an agreementdoes emerge it will reflect a much less precise process than is found in conventional cabinet coalitions. In particular,without voting rules it is unclear how resources are combined to reach a decision. The result could easily be an oversized coalition as advocates of a policy rationally ensure against the political uncertainties on which the decision rests (Dodd, 1976). Third, as Tsebelis (1990) contends, decision conflicts are likely to become fights over the shaping of the rules themselves. Where institutions are weak or absent, the nesting of policy and political strategies can be severe, sharply intensifying and transformingthe nature of the political game. The potential for each coalition actor to use foreign policy as a means of political survival (e.g., aggressively resorting to nationalism) is a viable option in such situations. Iran's handling of the "hostage crisis" with the United States offers a clear example of decision making by a coalition decision unit that has few, if any, established rules or proceduresfor making decisions.24Not unlike other revolutionary regimes (see Walt, 1996), the seizure of the American embassy in November 1979 posed a severe threatto Iran'snew revolutionaryregime right at the time when alternativeconstitutional arrangementswere first being proposed. The seizure of the embassy by radical student militants operating on their own was not, of course, an action of the government.Although viewed in different ways by moderate and hard-line elements within the revolutionary coalition, it was clear to all that the implications of the hostage situation were considerable.A crisis with the United Statesjeopardized tradingrelations with the West and exacerbateddifficulties alreadyapparentin the declining postrevolutionaryeconomy. Furthermore,it increasedthe revolutionaryregime's international isolation and even createdthe possibility of an American intervention. Equally severe were the domestic political implications of the crisis. Not only did the students' actions defy governmentauthority,the symbolism of holding the embassy and confronting the Carter administrationwent straight to the heartof the question of legitimacy raging at the time in a highly volatile Iranian political system. Conciliation on this issue could, quite simply, undercut the 24Analysisof this case draws directly on Stempel (1989) and, in turn, upon Stempel's(1981) book-lengthstudy,Insidethe IranianRevolution,as well as on the varioussourcescitedthroughoutthe descriptionof the case. 198 Hagan, Everts, Fukui, and Stempel revolutionary credentials of the new regime as well as the political position within the government of any proponents of such moderation;that is, those who wanted to release the hostages were "nottruly Islamic" (the clerical right) or "toadying to the Western imperialists"(Marxist left).25 As such, the crisis was intertwinedwith the vulnerabilityof the regime,the fragmentationof authority within it, and the evolution of the revolutionaryregime-including the precise institutions and norms in its still evolving constitution. The absence of any constitutionalordersharplymagnified all of these pressures. At the time of the hostage seizure the situation within the Iranian government-then, the Provisional RevolutionaryGovernment(PRG) headed by moderatenationalistMehdi Bazargan-was one of extreme flux; that is, not only was a constitution yet to be adopted, but the range of legitimate political activity was being progressively narrowed.Originally,the PRG, as the Ayatollah Khomeini's designated government, had had widespread support among almost all of the public and virtually all organized political groups, which had given it the authorityto implementrevolutionarychanges, dismantlethe Shah's political order,and fundamentallyrestructurethe historically close relationship with the United States. However, afterjust a few months in power, the political position of the PRGbegan to deteriorateat all levels with sharpdivisions emerging over various policy issues, including the increasingly politicized issue of relations with the West. In particular,the PRG faced opposition from radical Islamic clerics among the broaderrevolutionaryleadership (but not members of the government itself). Adopting an exclusionary political strategy, these radical clerics began to pick away at both moderate and leftist forces at all levels of the political system, includingthose in the originalrevolutionarycoalition. Firstto leave (in April 1979) the governmentwere the National Democrats and then the National Front, both Western-focused organizations seeking to reshape Iran's government in the Europeansocial-democratic model.26 Similarly, leftist elements of the coalition such as the People's Fedayeen and other radicalMarxistgroups were driven undergroundbecause of their opposition to clerical domination in the shaping of "Islamic socialism" and various other cultural and constitutional issues.27 Not long after the outbreak of the crisis, when it became apparentthat Khomeini would not overrule the students, the 25A brief descriptionof this interplaycan be foundin RichardCottam'sopening in Ramazani(1990). chapter S26 TheNationalFrontwas the partyof formerPrimeMinisterMossadeq.Its leader, KarimSanjabi,wasthe foreignministerin themoderateBazargan'sfirstcabinetwhile the leaderof the NationalDemocratswas Mossadeq'sgrandson. 27 By contrast,the moreIslamic(as opposedto Marxist)FedayeenandMujahidin groupscontinuedto play importantroles, slidingin andout of supportfor the ProvisionalRevolutionary Government. Foreign Policy by Coalition 199 moderate Bazarganresigned and Khomeini transferredauthorityto the newly created RevolutionaryCouncil (Stempel, 1981:226). Chaos and fragmentationwere the hallmarkof decision making within the struggling revolutionarycoalition consisting of the Ayatollah Khomeini, moderates in control of government ministries, and hard-line clerics lodged in the new RevolutionaryCouncil. Despite his prominenceas the unchallengedleader of the Islamic revolution, Khomeini did not act as a predominantleader. His policymaking role was one of disinterestedaloofness. As the Velayat-eh-Fagih, or SupremeJurisprudent,who acts as the guardianof state authorityaccording to his own theory of Islamic government, Khomeini deliberately kept himself insulatedfrom day-to-daypolitics. Although he would interveneon occasion to ratify policy decisions (or "nondecisions"),he was not a decision makerin the sense of a single predominantleader or even an active participantin the policymaking process. His role might best be described as that of a court of last resort. When political conflict became too intense or threateningto the regime (and its legitimacy), Khomeini would decide on a politically acceptable policy line which all then followed-at least until they tried to reverse it the next time. He was, at most, a passive-but never entirely absent-member of a larger decision-making coalition. No single actor-neither individual nor group-within the revolutionary coalition was capable of filling the void created by Khomeini's political style. On the one hand, no institutionalentity existed with the clear authorityto deal with the hostage crisis. In fact, as we have already observed, soon after the hostages were seized, Khomeini replaced the PRG with a new structure-the RevolutionaryCouncil-which was to be the supreme authorityin the Iranian regime. Its own power was, however, never fully established. Not only did Khomeini retain influence, but the RevolutionaryCouncil had to share authority with other governmententities particularlyafter a new constitution created a separate office of the president. Moreover, the Revolutionary Council was broadly split into two increasinglypolarizedpolitical groups:the radicalclerics of the Islamic RevolutionaryParty and the relatively moderategovernmentofficials left over from the ProvisionalRevolutionaryCouncil. Neither groupwas willing or able to dominate the RevolutionaryCouncil. Furthermore,decisionmaking rules such as voting procedureswere not well established; indeed, increasinglytheverymembershipof theRevolutionaryCouncilwas opento question. The largest group representedin the RevolutionaryCouncil was the Islamic Republic Party (IRP), the most consistent and continuing player during the entire crisis. Though composed of many factions, it included most of the revolutionary coalition's religious elements and was led by radical clergy such as AyatollahBehesti, AyatollahMontazari,HojotallahAli AkbarHashemiRafsanjani, and Ayatollah Khomeini. The IRP's strengthcame from its senior clerics who, throughtheir own feudal, quasi-bureaucraticnetworks,graduallyacquired 200 Hagan, Everts, Fukui, and Stempel control of certain government ministries as well as most nonstate organizations. They had the support of Khomeini. Though they could not agree on questions regardingprivate property,the export of the revolution, and the relative evil of the U.S. and USSR, their common interest in holding power was strongenough to give the partypolitical clout. They did, however, have internal consensus concerning commitmentto Islamic government,rejection of Iranian nationalism in favor of pan-Islamic goals, and an intention to adhere to a "no East, no West"foreign policy which seeks economic self-sufficiency and supports Third World liberation movements and terrorismas state policy.28 Furthermore, within the IRP there was a shared distrust of other groups in the revolutionarycoalition;as a result,it becamethe drivingforce behindthe regime's exclusionary political strategy. Despite its power, the IRP was not able to dominatethe revolutionarycoalition and governmentinstitutions,but had to share with moderatesand secular religious nationalists.These individuals were originally groupedaroundPrime Minister Bazargan'sLiberationMovement of Iranand the coalition leadership of the PRG. They wanted an Islamic Republic that would uphold democratic values, in contrastto the radicals' authoritarianideology. They also favored a foreign policy thatput Iran'snational interestfirst, and sought some accommodation with the West. Bani Sadr, who was elected presidentof Iran in January 1980, also fell into the secular wing of the revolutionarycoalition, althoughhe was not a moderatelike Bazarganbut a leftist Islamic academic figure. Though he originally favored releasing the hostages, he did so because he wanted to establish an Islamic Marxist state. The power of these more moderateand secular elements stemmed from several sources. They had well-established reputations as partof the anti-Shahmovement, andthey apparentlywere considered by Khomeinito be essential to the revolutionarymovement (perhapsas a counterweight to the IRP and other radical elements). Furthermore,they were represented in the various institutions of the new revolutionary government, including the governmentcabinet, the RevolutionaryCouncil, and later on the presidency under the new constitution.29 28 Forelaborationon this pointsee, in particular,Zabih(1982) andTaheri(1987). 29The weaknessof thesemoresecularelementslay in thefactthattheyhadno mass like the IRP.TheLiberationMovementof Iran(and,indeed,the politicalorganization NationalFrontandits allies) was little morethanan elite collectionof middle-class left over fromthe Mossadeqperiod.Theyhadjoinedwith the clerics revolutionaries andKhomeini,believingthatstrategyto be the only viablebasisfor generatingmass support,anddependeduponthe leftistfactions,bothsecularandreligious,for discieffortsamongthe youthandlowermiddleclass. Moreso than plinedorganizational the radicalclergy,they were ultimatelyvery dependenton the trustand supportof Khomeini. Foreign Policy by Coalition 201 Hostage crisis politics point to a fourth actor in Iran's coalition decision unit on this issue: the studentmilitants holding the American embassy. Never a unified group, the studentsinvolved in the embassy takeoverranged from leftist religious radicalswho favored a relatively secularconstitutionto otherswith close ties to the radical clerics. Despite divisions on constitutional issues and other matters, the students shared the IRP's fear that the United States was planning to subvert the Iranianrevolution and returnthe Shah to power, as it had allegedly done in 1953 (Roosevelt, 1979).30 Their influence on the hostage issue lay in their immediate physical control over the lives of the Americans as well as the fact that they operatedbeyond the authorityof even their supporters in the Revolutionary Council (Stempel, 1981; Zabih, 1982). Throughoutthe crisis, they successfully resisted efforts by moderate leaders to place the hostages under the control of the government, often with the support of radical leaders and occasionally even Khomeini.31But, at the same time, though, they were unable to carry out their demand that there should be public trials of the hostages if the Carter administrationdid not returnthe Shah and his alleged wealth to Iran.32 The students holding the embassy did not appearwilling to defy Khomeini, even though at the same time they were a wild card in the eyes of the government. Takentogether,then,policymakingwithinthe Iraniangovernmentapproached anarchy.Not only was power fragmentedbetween contendingpolitical groups, but these groups were sharply polarized over basic questions regarding the futurepolitical order(linked to foreign policy) and, indeed, were competing for their very political survival.The nearcomplete lack of any established decision rules compoundedthe situationto the point that it was often unclearjust where power resided and which actors had the authorityto act. The results were twofold. At one level, political infighting provoked a near continuous stream of 300n two occasions,in Februaryand May 1979, membersof the Fedayeenand Mujahidin(theleftistreligiousradicals)hadattemptedunsuccessfullyto takepossession of the Americanembassy,as a meansof undercutting with the rapprochement West. 31Furthercomplicatingthe situationwas the abilityof oppositiongroups(e.g., the FedayeenandMujahidin)outsidethe decisionunitto putpressureon the studentsand the government,usuallythroughIRPcontacts,but occasionallyin the streets,as did the Hesballahi. takenwithouttheknowledgeof 32The decisionto seize theembassywas apparently the government,butcertainlywith at leastthe tacitapprovalof severalof the radical clergy,some of whomcameto the embassythe next day to tacitlyandindirectlyput theAyatollahKhomeini'sseal of approvalon the operation.Withinabouta week the IRPleadershipcameto supportthe students'position,althoughtheydidnot appearto havemuchenthusiasmfor actuallyplacingthe hostageson trial. 202 Hagan, Everts, Fukui, and Stempel anti-Americanand anti-Westerncriticism as various players demonstratedtheir nationalism credentials (and exposed any government attempts at pragmatic diplomacy to ease the crisis). At another level, an underlying deadlock persisted. No side was willing or able to alterthe basic situation-that is, while the moderateswere unable to gain the release (or simply control) of the hostages, the various radical elements were unsuccessful in their attempts to place the hostages on trial and punish them. Despite all this, are there any factors that might have enabled or forced these contending factions to take substantivelymeaningful action to bring the situation to a close? One possibility is that the regime's "predominantactor" finally intervenedto force a solution. In a way analogous to De Swaan's (1973) "pivotalactor,"the predominantactorconcept is not issue-specific but, instead, concerns the overall composition of the regime and the presence of one player who controlsdisproportionateamountsof key political resources(Achen, 1989; also Hagan, 1994). Clearly, Khomeini was predominantin this revolutionary regime. Although, as noted above, he was not actively involved in day-to-day affairs, he was a pivotal actor within a revolutionarycoalition that could not directly challenge him. However, even though Khomeini surely had preferences on this issue, he withheld them at key points and instead saw this and other issues as ways of consolidating his power than as value preferencesto be advocated.As noted above, his conception of leadershiprequiredthat he be an arbiterof last resort,a philosophicalguide ratherthana strongexecutive. Hence, though his basic disposition was not to give the hostages back, he intervened rarelyand only when the conflict among othermembersof the coalition became severe, for example, to reverse the March 1980 RevolutionaryCouncil decision requiringthe studentmilitantsto turnover the hostagesto the Iraniangovernment. Even though there was no politically predominantactor in the regime willing to assert its influence, is there one actor with exclusive control over a critical resource who might exercise power? Druckman and Green's (1986) analysis suggests that such an actor may be able to independentlyimplement certainpolicy options-in effect, operateas an undersizedcoalition. Especially in the situation of political anarchy,such an actor may well be willing to defy some membersof the groupandtakeextremeaction-particularly if they believe they can mobilize wider public supportto overrulethe objections of othercoalition players (who subsequently would not publicly oppose their action). The studentmilitantswere, arguably,in a position to act in this manner.They physically controlled the American hostages as well as the embassy and, as just noted, Khomeini did not permit the government to take over control of the embassy. They could have put the hostages on trial or worse. Of course, such did not occur.The studentmilitantswere apparentlyunwilling to defy the other membersof the revolutionarycoalition-or, more likely, were unwilling to risk defying Khomeini and his apparentwish to avoid more extreme punishmentof Foreign Policy by Coalition 203 the hostages. Whatever the dynamics, there was no member of the coalition able or willing to impose an agreement. If no single actor is willing or able to prevail in such a highly fluid political setting, are there other factors that propel contending actors to cooperate?One possibility is a severe threatto the nation's security and/or the regime's political survival, a situation analogous to those that have led to "national unity cabinets"during wartime (e.g., Britain and Israel) as well as to Iran'sresponse to theforeign threatposed by Iraq'sinvasion. In this type of case, an oversized coalition would appear to be the rational strategy for enforcing agreement, since no actor will want to risk incurring the wrath of other players (whose tolerance levels are not necessarily clear) by attempting to force through its own preferences. The oversized coalition allows members to isolate particular opponents entirely and/or, if necessary, attract uncommitted players to their position with side payments.Although such might have been the initial strategy of Iran'sbroadrevolutionarycoalition, as the hostage crisis proceeded,its membership became more and more restrictive.The hostage crisis issue, ratherthan unifying the country in response to U.S. pressure and internationalisolation, actuallyintensifiedpoliticalcompetitionwithinthe revolutionarycoalition.There was no consensus on the extent of the American threat-while moderatesworried aboutthe cost of internationalisolation, radicalswelcomed it as a means of purifying the revolution and breakingfrom the West. The hostage crisis placed the regime's legitimacy problem in sharprelief and enhanced ratherthan curtailed the domestic tensions within the revolution. In sum, no factors helped overcome the basic deadlock within the Iranian government. None of the groups was willing or able to work together on the issue in a way that moved beyond simply continuingto hold the hostages in the student-controlledembassy. But, unlike the Dutch and Japanese cases previously discussed where rules existed and the situation was carefully contained, in the Iran case the deadlock was visible to all. The hostage crisis was marked by barrages of extreme anti-Americanrhetoric involving repeated threats as well as open criticisms of other members of the regime. Given the fluidity in the Iraniandecision rules and the extreme distrust among the members of the revolutionarycoalition, verbalpronouncementswere often madeby actorsin order to openly undercutopponents. Decisions, in effect, took the form of fragmented symbolic action. Although verbal and contradictory, and in no way resolving the crisis, this ongoing verbalforeign policy was still significant.First, it politically undercutinitiatives with the West to resolve the crisis and, second, it greatly inflamed tensions with the United States as the Carteradministration took such rhetoric as indicative of Iranian intentions. Had rules existed and domestic conflict been contained (or, papered over as in the Dutch case), it is arguablethatthe crisis could have been handledmore effectively-at least with respect to the internationalpressuresIranfaced and the costs it ultimately paid. 204 Hagan, Everts, Fukui, and Stempel The deadlock was broken-and then only gradually-when the political makeup of the regime changed. The period between the decision to keep the hostages and the final decision to release them was marked by intensifying international(including the Iraqiinvasion) and U.S. pressuresas well as major changes in the Iranianpolitical scene. A presidentialelection held in February surprisinglywas won by the moderate candidate, Bani Sadr, who viewed the hostage crisis as undercuttingthe revolution.His attemptin March 1980 to gain the release of the hostages was, however, reversed by a 7-6 vote in the RevolutionaryCouncil when Khomeini, acting at the behest of the studentmilitants and other fundamentalists,blocked a deal that would have transferredcontrol of the hostages from the militant studentsto the Bani Sadr government(Salinger, 1981; Stempel, 1981:11). The radical clerics in the IRP had sided with the studentmilitants because they saw resolution of the crisis as not only favoring the West but also shifting the internalpower balance to Bani Sadrand the more moderaterevolutionaries. Only when the IRP had consolidated considerable power was it willing to tolerate negotiations. That came about as a result of the May election. IRP candidatesacquiredcontrol of over two thirdsof the Majles seats and promptly elected Hashemi-Rafsanjanito be its speaker, forcing Bani Sadr to appoint Mohammed Ali Rajai prime minister. The hard-line clerics were now politically dominant, and Beheshti, Speaker Rafsanjani, and Prime Minister Rajai were becoming a powerful triumvirate.Political infighting between Bani Sadr (who now had supportfrom the leftists, including some revived elements of the People's Fedayeen) and the IRP continued with periodic fragmented verbal pronouncementsin its foreign relations.33Yet emergence of a relatively coher- 33 Althoughthe politicalsituationhadchangedconsiderably, the decisionunitcontinuedto be a coalitionof autonomousactors.Khomeiniremainedas the predominant in leader,buthe still adheredto the role of the Fagihandavoideddirectparticipation not to individHe continued to anysingle delegateauthority, governmental processes. ual, but to the RevolutionaryCouncil,now increasinglyunitedbehindclericsof the IRP.It might be arguedat this point that a single group-the IslamicRepublican Party-had emergedas the single dominantactorwithinthe government,if we grant thatBeheshti,Rafsanjani, andRajaicomposesucha singlegroup.However,thatassumptionwouldignorethepoliticalautonomyof thepresidencyunderBaniSadras well as underBani Sadr,the presithe militantstudentsholdingthe hostages.Furthermore, the had returned to the role PRG and executive branch playedunderBazargan. dency The IRP and the clerics, indeedeveryoneon the Right, fearedthat Bani Sadr,an avowedsecularist,wouldtryto diminishclericalpower.Forthatreasonthe surviving leftist People'sFedayeenandMujahidingroupsralliedaroundhim, hencethe presidencyandthosefavorableto BaniSadr'sviews becamethe oppositepole to the IRP. Both sides lobbiedthe studentmilitantsandtriedto bringthemaroundto theirpreferredpolicy conclusions. Foreign Policy by Coalition 205 ent government dominated by the IRP proved to be an important domestic political preconditionto the eventual release of the hostages. In mid-September, Iran finally put forth an overture throughthe Germanembassy that led to the critical meeting signaling the onset of serious negotiations to end the hostage crisis.34 While the stabilization of the Iranianpolitical scene reduced the domestic constraintssurroundingthe hostage issue, several unexpected events increased internationalpressureon the governmentto act to resolve the crisis. First, Iraq's attack on September22 across a 400-mile front createdintense pressure,especially on the radicals, to end the Westernblockade of Iran and to obtain help. Second, Iran'sisolation was furtherunderlinedin mid-Octoberby Prime Minister Rajai's failure to get the U.N. General Assembly to condemn the Iraqi invasion. Third, the defeat of President Carter in his November 4 reelection bid, coupled with the much harderline taken by President-electReagan, shook the Iraniansbadly. As a result of these pressures, bargainingbegan in earnest, leading to the hostage release on the day of President Carter'sdeparturefrom office.35 Clearly the internationalsituation had changed, but it should not be lost on the reader that the changes within Iran were even greater-the hardliners had finally been able to consolidate their power within relatively stable constitutional arrangements.Put more succinctly and in political terms, while the internationalcosts of keeping the hostages had become more salient, the domestic benefits of keeping them had largely disappeared. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS The purpose of this article has been to sketch out a third type of decision unit-a coalition of multiple autonomous actors. Drawing upon theories of cabinet coalition formation,we have suggested a numberof variables that govern the interactionsof members of a coalition unit, that is, minimal size, policy 34A quiet, behind-the-scenes meetingwas held in Bonn (Sept. 16-18) betweena U.S. teamled by DeputySecretaryof StateWarrenChristopher andan Iraniangroup ledby Khomeini'sson-in-lawandconfidante,SadeghTabatabai, a formerdeputyprime ministerunderBazargan.In addition,on September12, Khomeinifinallyannounced his own conditionsnecessaryfor the returnof the hostages:the U.S. was to pledge in Iranianaffairs,returnthe Shah'smoney,unfreezeIranianassets, noninterference and cancel all U.S. claims againstthe revolutionarygovernment,includingprivate ones. 35 Accountsof the eventsleadingto the releaseof the hostagesare foundin works by Stempel(1981), Zabih(1982), Sick (1985), and Bill (1988). Chaptersby Robert OwenandHaroldSaundersin Christopher (1985) give the best factualdescriptionof the diplomacythattook placeduringthe hostagecrisis. 206 Hagan, Everts, Fukui, and Stempel space, pivotal actors, willingness and ability to bargain, and situationalpressures at home and abroad.Furthermore,we have identified a key contingency variable-decision rules-that indicatescoalitions may take one of threeforms: (1) a "unitveto" model in which the coalition has established rules that require unanimity,(2) a "minimumconnected winning coalition" model in which the coalition has established rules but they do not require unanimity, and (3) an "anarchy"model in which decision rules are largely absent. These three configurations have been explored, respectively, in the cases of the Netherlands and the 1979 cruise missile decision, Japanand the 1971 exchange rate crisis, and Iran and the 1979 hostage crisis. The threecases examined here are by no means comprehensive,but they do suggest the diversity of decision unit structuresand processes when the decision unit is a coalition-and the sharply divergent outcomes that can result. Two of the cases illustrate how extreme fragmentationin coalition decision units can lead to correspondinglyextreme decisions-sustained political deadlock in two variations.The outcome of the Dutch handlingof the cruise missile crisis was a very stable deadlock in which membersof successive cabinets were unable to either accept or refuse the NATO missiles, while at the same time paperingover theirdifferences and arguablypreventingthe situationfrom exacerbatinginternationalanddomestic tensions.The way Iran'srevolutionarycoalition handled the U.S. hostage crisis was much different.Although a deadlock persisted in which the hostages could neither be put on trial nor released, the torrent of verbal infighting targeted toward domestic and foreign audiences served to escalate domestic conflicts and internationaltensions. The Japanese case reminds us that coalitions do not necessarily produce extreme outcomes. One value of this latter case is that it shows how even a fragmentedcoalition governmentcan produce a broad compromise in a reasonableamount of time. It would be a mistake, though, to infer that the three types of coalition decision units portrayedhere always manifest the outcomes evidenced in these three cases. Actually, the cruise missile, exchange rate, and hostage crises are arguablynot "typical"of Dutch, Japanese,and, perhaps,even Iraniandecision making. That is, coalitions in the Netherlands generally operate as a single group,the JapaneseLDP often deadlocks,andthe Iraniangovernmentdid respond to the Iraqiinvasion. A key point, in fact, in all three cases is that the respective decisions were due to interplay between other factors and coalition structure. The concept of the pivotal actor is relevant to all three settings, although not simply in the sense of imposing its own preferences. In the Dutch case, the ChristianDemocrats were pivotal in the sense of projectingtheir own incapacity to decide on the rest of the government, while in the Japanese case, the minister of finance acted cautiously in response to altered opinions. In the Iranian case, Khomeini did not take any position, but in doing so created a political vacuum that prolonged deadlock and prompteda largerpolitical game Foreign Policy by Coalition 207 among other actorsin the coalition to seek legitimacy by asserting anti-Western nationalism. Political beliefs and political relationshipsamong coalition actorsalso interacted with coalition structurein helping to shape decisions. The relative positions (or policy space) among coalition members on the issues involved in the three cases were importantto explaining what happened.The Japanesegovernment was able to act, in part, because the MOF and BOJ were not polarized on the exchange rate issue, whereas the Dutch and Iraniandebates reflected the more strongly held moderate and hard-line mentalities within each ruling circle. The willingness to bargain reinforced these tendencies. In the exchange rate crisis, Japaneseleaders acted to keep the exchange rate issue from becoming politicized, while the Dutch leaders could not insulate their decision from the antimissiledissidentsin the oppositionandcertainIranianleadershad strong political incentives to openly politicize the hostage issue. These well-defined positions seem to have mediatedthe impact of the internationalpressuresfound in each of the cases. Only in the case of Japandid foreign threatsand pressures reduce the level of disagreementin the coalition decision unit. In contrast,the intense NATO and Americanpressuresfaced by the Dutch and Iraniangovernments, respectively, propelled greaterdomestic alarm, intensifying not diminishing internaldebate. In addition to varying ability to achieve agreement (and avoid deadlock), the operationof these coalition decision units can also be examined in terms of "openness" to the environment, as raised in MargaretHermann's theoretical overview in this special issue. The cases highlight differences in the extent to which coalitions are open to informationfrom the political environment.Among the three cases, the Iraniancoalition was clearly the most closed to any environmental pressures. The Iranian hard-liners were able to defy severe international pressure and to block pragmaticadjustmentsby the moderates, while domestically engineering the suppression of other political actors in the promotion of their domestic political agenda.More than in the other two cases, the Iraniandecisions were driven by internal imperatives-namely, the competition for power among contending actors in the revolutionary coalition. The Dutch and Japanesedecision units, in contrast,were relatively open to environmental signals as would be expected from their well-established decision rules. Such rules enabled coalition membersto work together in coping with external pressures, but it does not mean that the two decision units responded in the same way to the pressures. The government of the Netherlands-like the Iranian government-defied severe internationalpressures. But the logic in the two governments was different.The Dutch governmentwas unable to respond because it was severely constrained,not by internaldynamics, but by the wider domestic political environment, for example, Parliamentand public opinion. The actions of the Japanese government reflected sensitivity to international Hagan, Everts, Fukui, and Stempel 208 pressures, mainly because LDP leaders kept the issue from becoming politicized publicly or drawn into internalLDP factional politics. One furtherpoint is highlightedby these cases. Foreign policy episodes are usefully viewed as sequences of occasions for decisions that extend over time. The time frame may be a week or two, as in the Japanexchange rate crisis, or it may be a year or more-the Iranianhostage crisis lasted nearly a year and a half, while the Netherlands endured the cruise missile crisis for close to six years. In each of the cases described here, the governmentsmade a numberof decisions. Even the relatively responsive Japanese government first acted to resist the Nixon shocks and, only after "learning"the futility of protectingthe yen, changedpositions and decided to accept at least a partial(or dirty) float. In the Dutch case, as documentedby Everts (1991), successive governmentsdeadlocked. Withregardto Iran,Stempel (1991) notes thattherewere severalincomplete efforts at the release of the hostages. What is instructive about the latter two cases is not simply that they took longer. Rather,the deadlocks (in whatever form) were primarilythe result of domestic political considerations-and ultimatelyled to the largerrealignmentof domestic actors. Dutch acceptanceof the missiles was possible only afterthe demise of the dissidents with the decline of their public supportand the weakening of their position in Parliament.Similarly, the Iraniangovernmentreleased the hostages after the hard-line clerics had established their dominance in that country's politics. 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