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+91-11-45679615Post Your Requirement
Singapore Malaysia Super Saver Tour
Description :
Arrival at Singapore Airport , Meet an Greet by Pack N Go representative, check in to your hotel and spend the day at leisure. Singapore is a model city, quite unlike any other in the world. It is dynamic, colorful and offers a harmonious blend of culture, cuisine, arts and architecture. Brimming with unbridled energy, this little South-East Asian dynamo embodies the finest of both the East and the West. In the evening you can opt for the Night Safari (optional tour with pick-up and drop from the hotel) where you will be taken to the world's first wildlife park built for visits at night. Nestled amidst 40 hectares of lush green forests, it makes use of subtle lighting techniques, thereby letting visitors view over 1,000 nocturnal animals belonging to more than 100 different species in their natural habitats. Later, return to your hotel for a comfortable overnight stay.
Description :
After enjoying breakfast at the hotel, gear up for an exciting half-day city tour of Singapore. The tour will commence with a drive around the Civic District and cover Padang Cricket Club, Parliament House, Supreme Court and City Hall. Stop at the Merlion Park for incredibly stunning views of Marina Bay. Don't forget to click pictures with the Merlion, a mythological creature, part lion and part fish! In the afternoon, embark on a tour of Sentosa Island. A visit to Singapore will be incomplete without a tour of Sentosa Island, which has something for everyone and is known as Asia's Favorite Playground! The world-class attractions here are easily accessible and well-connected for endless fun! Sentosa tour highlights include: Images of Singapore, Dolphin Lagoon, Underwater World, Songs of the Sea, Sky ride, Butterfly Park & Insect Kingdom, 4D Magic, Jewel Cable Car Ride. The Images of Singapore in Sentosa is a museum that will take you back in time and will give you insights about the transformation of Singapore from a small fishing village to a vibrant multicultural society. It's a showcase not to be missed.
Description :
After breakfast, enjoy the day at leisure or visit Universal Studios, (optional tour with transfers) Asia's only Hollywood movie theme park featuring rides and attractions based on famous Hollywood animation movies such as Shrek, Battlestar Galactica and Madagascar. Experience death-defying stunts, explosions and an ocean of thrills at the Water World. Thereafter, take a walk into pre-history at the Jurassic Park Rapids Adventure. Also, visit the Hollywood Boulevard for a stroll down the famous Walk of Fame. Enjoy a comfortable overnight stay at hotel.
Description :
After enjoying breakfast, check out from hotel and transfers to coach stand/Airport where you will go to Kuala Lumpur.Arrival at Kuala Lumpur, Meet and Greet by our Representative at airport and transfer to hotel. Check in to hotel and day free for enjoying local market and malls. Overnight stay at hotel.
Description :
After breakfast at Hotel, you will go for Genting Highland Day trip. Today you will cover 01 way cable car, Batu cave, Snow world. Evening return to hotel. Overnight Stay at Hotel.
Description :
After breakfast at hotel, You will be taken for city tour of Kuala Lumpur. City Tour is a panoramic Tour for a maximum 3 hours and will cover Merdeka Square, National Mosque, Twin Tower Photo Stop, National Monument, Kings Palace (from outside only) and CHINESE TEMPLE & Chocolate FACTORY Outlet. Later on you will enjoy KL tower. Evening you will be free for Shopping. Overnight at Kuala Lumpur hotel.
Description :
After breakfast at hotel, you can complete the Check out formality before 11:00 am. Explore the city by own till evening or as per flight schedule and later transfer to Airport to catch your flight back home.
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Need a book? Engineering books recommendations...
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Re: More "Responsible Charge" Stuff[Subject Prev][Subject Next][Thread Prev][Thread Next]
- To: <seaint(--nospam--at)seaint.org>
- Subject: Re: More "Responsible Charge" Stuff
- From: Christopher Wright <chrisw(--nospam--at)skypoint.com>
- Date: Sat, 28 Aug 2004 22:28:25 -0500
On Aug 28, 2004, at 6:30 PM, Scott Maxwell wrote:
They're not as much aimed at manufacturers as purchased by them. Those provisions saved manufacturers a lot of money, and they still are. Engineering laws are loaded with exemptions put in by industries who didn't want to pay engineers for doing (as they apparently still think) the work of 'draughtsmen.' Most mechanical design at the time wasn't all that sophisticated anyway. Minnesota excepts most farm-related mechanical engineering from the law and as another example Arizona still exempts mining from most of its engineering registration provisions. Of course that could be that agriculture and mining are such inherently safe occupations, but that isn't how I'd bet.I believe that many, if not most, states have such exceptions, but those exceptions are aimed more at the Ford Motor Companies of the world.
My own practice flat out offers engineering services, so I need a license. I know of people who make a great thing of referring themselves with euphemisms, but the guts of the law is that engineering is defined in the law by the character and type of services provided, not by the name used.
Christopher Wright P.E. |"They couldn't hit an elephant at chrisw(--nospam--at)skypoint.com | this distance" (last words of Gen..............................................| John Sedgwick, Spotsylvania 1864)
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- RE: More "Responsible Charge" Stuff
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The weather has been absolutely foul over the past week and late-autumn in Scotland means that the days are incredibly dark at the moment. At the moment I've been wanting to eat comfort food all the time, and Toad-in-the-Hole seemed an obvious choice after I purchased some delicious pork sausages.
Gluten-Free Toad-in-the-Hole
Wednesday, 18 November 2015
Food: Gluten-Free Toad-in-the-Hole
Posted by Clementine Buttercup No comments:
Tuesday, 17 November 2015
Beauty: My Budget Bath Time Favourites
Bath time is a bit of a luxury for me as I often lack the time to wallow in the bath. I used to spend a bit more on bath time products to indulge myself a bit more, but have realised recently that a higher product price tag doesn't really affect the enjoyment of the act of bathing and for the past few months I've been discovering a few budget bath time options which all work really well for me.
Posted by Clementine Buttercup No comments:
Labels: beauty
Friday, 13 November 2015
Travel: Bodnant Gardens, North Wales
We visited North Wales a few weeks ago during the October mid-term break and stayed in a lovely cottage on the Bodnant Estate in Conwy. We'd booked this through an agency and had no idea about the beauty of the Bodnant Estate but were in for a treat. After a particularly wet morning on our first day we decided to take a trip to the nearby Bodnant Garden which we realised latterly was world famous.
Posted by Clementine Buttercup No comments:
Labels: Travel
Wednesday, 11 November 2015
Food: Aubergine Rarebit
On a recent visit to North Wales, I picked up some delicious Welsh Ale mustard and chutney at a delicatessen and couldn't get enough of the stuff. The ale imparts a lovely sweetness which really enhanced the flavour. Upon my return I was happy to find an online stockist which pleased me greatly. I've been eating a version of Welsh Rarebit since I was tiny and decided to experiment on the theme for a more substantial lunch-time meal, though my Aubergine Rarebit would be great for brunch too.
Aubergine Rarebit
Aubergine Rarebit
Posted by Clementine Buttercup No comments:
Friday, 6 November 2015
Life: A Healthy and Happy 2015 - Update 10
October was a month devoted to family and as a result the focus was less on me and more on others, which is usually the way, but I felt it even more so this month. The kids were off school for the half-term break which was a bit tiring, but we also managed a wee trip to Wales, which we all enjoyed. This was our first family holiday with the dog and she had a whale of a time chasing after pheasants. After the success of car-trip with the dog, we're definitely planning some more trips with her.
Posted by Clementine Buttercup No comments:
Labels: life
Wednesday, 4 November 2015
Food: Baked Apples with Maple Syrup and Pecans
Our week day desserts are normally pretty simple, with the kids generally opting for fromage frais and fruit. As the nights start drawing in, though, our dinners have generally comprised of comfort food and I've had a fair few requests for warming puddings. My latest offering was a baked apple dessert with maple syrup and pecans, which I served with custard. Empty plates all round and lots of suggestions for variations on the theme.
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Now that you're grown up, sugary cereal is a no-no. Sugary face cleanser, on the other hand, gets a resounding yes. Infused with lemongrass and chamomile, this cleanser gets rid of dirt and oil while gently exfoliating layers of skin with nonabrasive sugar. (The alpha hydroxy acids in raw sugar gently buff away dead layers and excess oils without stripping your skin of its natural moisture.) You'll immediately notice how refreshed your skin feels, not to mention how good the clean, subtle scent of zesty lemon smells. Unlike Lucky Charms, this sweet stuff is good for you.
This puts "two in one" on a whole different level. When you first use the product, it scrubs like an exfoliating product, and as you're washing your face the rough exfoliating beads turn to a gentle cleanser. The product was amazing and I will definitely consider buying it. The smell was great and the product left my skin feeling amazing.5


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Template For Submission Of Manuscripts English Language Essay
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|Reviews for Shuttereye
| AlyssPotter chapter 1 . 3/18/2016
Ok, so this is honestly the forth time I'm reading this-randomly over like the past year-and just realized I hadn't reviewed! I LOVE THIS STORY SO MUCH! You did a fantastic job with the characterization and your writing was amazing! Brilliant!
| Clouddreams chapter 1 . 5/20/2013
Oh all the 3, I love how those glasses work, and Tim's reaction.
| CreeepyFangirl chapter 1 . 3/22/2013
This fic was honestly the fic that got me into TimKon. I thank you for that. I've read this fic like 5 times already and I only found it last night. Just shows how much I love it! I especially love the last line!
| Hakumei-chan chapter 1 . 6/1/2012
Why aren't people leaving reviews? Yours stories are awesome!


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Gil Ferrer Super Treat is a thermo heat conditioner that is rich with anti-oxidant properties. It is formulated to heal very damaged and distressed hair that has been parched by chemicals or the environment. These anti-oxidants and botanicals will leave hair with a healthy glow.
Gil Ferrer Super Treat is a super conditioner for hair balancing, can be used with or without heat source.
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Haddon Hall lecture & cocktails 2017
Arne Maynard, international garden designer best-known for his romantic gardens, each with a unique 'sense of place', will give an evening lecture at Haddon Hall, near Bakewell in Derbyshire, on Thursday 8 June 2017. Arne has been involved with the estate for over 15 years and the redesign of the terraced gardens surrounding the Hall is a continually evolving process. He will speak to guests about 'Evoking the spirit of place in the gardens at Haddon' before joining them for cocktails in the garden.
The talk coincides with the inaugural RHS Chatsworth Flower Show, at which Arne will help to judge the show gardens, and to celebrate Haddon Hall will put on regular garden tours from 7 - 10 June 2017.
Lord and Lady Edward Manners, owners of Haddon Hall, say:
"We are thrilled that Arne will be joining us for this very special event in June. The RHS Chatsworth Flower Show is on our doorstep and we hope visitors travelling to our unique corner of England will be inspired to stay a little longer to explore. Arne's talk will give guests a unique insight into his approach to redesigning the gardens here, bringing his design philosophy to life."
Tickets to Arne's talk are £45 including cocktails and admission to the gardens.
Garden tours throughout the weekend are included in the usual admission fee.
For information and to book tickets click here


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7 thoughts on "LMFF Melbourne."
Ohh, I thought I saw you there last night!!!
How fantastic was the show though! Amazing stuff
Guh, you look amazing, no wonder you were jumped on by street style photographers!!
Girl you are freakin beautiful! I had to come check out your blog after your tweet! You look amazing in that tweed jacket and gold accessories! That red lipstick is WOW! I am your new follower! Can't wait to see more! Kiah
you girls must have rocked the fashion show 🙂
I am dying over that belt. It doesn't look like it's elastic. perfection.
I love your dress! What size is it and can you give me a direct link to the exact dress?
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We have been reviewing Logitech's multi-device wireless input peripherals for a few years now. The Logitech K480 was launched in 2014, and the Logitech K780 and M720 keyboard and mouse were launched last year. The K780 and M720 Triathlon were separate products. The success of these input peripherals has prompted Logitech to introduce the MK850 Performance combo - a full-length multi-device wireless keyboard along with the wireless M720 Triathlon mouse. The combo is made more powerful by the DuoLink feature - using the keyboard to alter the functionality of the mouse buttons and gestures. The Logitech MK850 Performance combo comes with a single Unifying USB receiver. Logitech also bundles a USB extender for use-cases where the placement of the spare USB port in the PC...
Razer Updates The BlackWidow Chroma Keyboard: New Ergonomics And Switch Choices
The Razer BlackWidow keyboard has been around since 2010, and it is one of Razer's most popular gaming keyboards. Today Razer is announcing an updated version of this keyboard...14 by Brett Howse on 1/24/2017
The Das Keyboard 'Prime 13' & '4 Professional' Mechanical Keyboard Review
In this review we are taking a look at two mechanical keyboards from Das Keyboard, the 4 Professional and the Prime 13. The 4 Professional is a very popular...58 by E. Fylladitakis on 1/10/2017
Nanoxia Ncore Retro: Mechanical, Water Resistant, 'Warehouse 13' Style Keyboard
Despite the mark on mechanical keyboards, not a lot of PC users have actually tried a classic mechanical typewriter, with round keys as well as the distinctive look, feel...30 by Anton Shilov on 12/9/2016
Best Mechanical Keyboards: Holiday 2016
Mechanical keyboards have become highly popular during the past few years, with almost every advanced PC user wanting one on his/her desk. There are many arguments regarding the advantages...35 by E. Fylladitakis on 12/9/2016
Capsule Review: The Zalman ZM-K650WP Gaming Keyboard: Waterproof at $30
A number of manufacturers have been trying to fill in the gap between electronic and mechanical keyboards. In this review we are having a look at the Zalman ZM-K650WP...14 by E. Fylladitakis on 11/17/2016
The Cooler Master Master Keys Pro L White Mechanical Keyboard Review
Cooler Master is a very familiar brand name amongst enthusiasts, with a virtually endless lineup of products ranging from PC cases and coolers to peripherals and accessories. In this...23 by E. Fylladitakis on 10/21/2016
Logitech Multi-Device K780 Keyboard and M720 Triathlon Mouse Review
Logitech introduced an innovative multi-device Bluetooth keyboard, the Multi-Device K480, back in 2014. The K480 could be configured for use with up to three different devices, and definitely stood...27 by Ganesh T S on 9/14/2016
The Tesoro Gram Spectrum Low Profile Mechanical Keyboard Review
Today we are taking our first look at a "low-profile" mechanical keyboard, the Tesoro Gram Spectrum. The Gram Spectrum features RGB lighting and full programmability, but its highlight are...27 by E. Fylladitakis on 8/22/2016
The Nixeus Moda Pro Review: A Professional Mechanical Keyboard for $55
In this review we are having a look at a low-cost mechanical keyboard, the Nixeus Moda Pro. The Moda Pro is a no-frills product that is mainly targeted to...40 by E. Fylladitakis on 8/3/2016
Zalman ZM-K650WP: Because You Need a Soda-proof, Chip-proof $30 Membrane Keyboard
In the land of gaming keyboards and enthusiasts, mechanical keys are easily becoming the norm with every keyboard company coming out with a new feature, doodad, or eSports team...28 by Ian Cutress on 7/15/2016
Razer Announces Mechanical Switch Keyboard For The Apple iPad Pro
When Apple announced the iPad Pro, they also announced a new accessory which was meant to be paired with the large form factor tablet in the Smart Keyboard. To...16 by Brett Howse on 7/14/2016
The Corsair Gaming K70 RGB RAPIDFIRE Mechanical Keyboard Review
There already are dozens of companies offering literally hundreds of mechanical keyboards, covering nearly all shapes and sizes. Designers try to innovate and differentiate but this becomes exceedingly difficult...36 by E. Fylladitakis on 7/1/2016
Capsule Review: SteelSeries Apex M500 Gaming Mechanical Keyboard
SteelSeries is a well-known manufacturer of gaming peripherals. Despite that, until recently they offered only a handful of mechanical keyboards, and those were using proprietary switches. Today we are...60 by E. Fylladitakis on 6/10/2016
The Patriot Viper V760 Mechanical Gaming Keyboard Review
Today we are having a look at the Viper V760, a mechanical keyboard from Patriot's new gaming peripheral line. The Viper V760 is boasting full programmability, RGB lighting and...9 by E. Fylladitakis on 5/5/2016
The Cougar Attack X3 Mechanical Keyboard & 450M Gaming Mouse Review
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Logitech Announces G610 Orion Brown And G610 Orion Red Mechanical Keyboards
Today Logitech unveiled two new mechanical keyboards under their G branding, with the G610 Orion Brown and G610 Orion Red. As I'm sure many of you have already guessed...21 by Brett Howse on 3/17/2016
The Corsair Strafe RGB Mechanical Keyboard Review with MX Silent (Red) Switches
Cherry's MX Silent switches are making their debut on the Corsair Strafe RGB gaming mechanical keyboard. Corsair has the exclusive on the MX Silent for the first year, and...58 by E. Fylladitakis on 3/15/2016
The Zalman ZM-K700M Mechanical Gaming Keyboard Review
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The Benefits of Education
Girls and boys who learn to read, write and count will provide a better future for their families and countries. With improved education, so many other areas are positively affected. In short, education has the power to make the world a better place.
Education ...
Reduces poverty
If all students in low-income countries left school with basic reading skills, 171 million people could be lifted out of poverty. This is equal to a 12% cut in global poverty.1
Increases income
One extra year of schooling increases an individual's earnings by up to 10%.2
Makes people healthier
Children of educated mothers are more likely to be vaccinated and less likely to be stunted because of malnourishment.3
Boosts economic growth
Each additional year of schooling raises average annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth by 0.37%.4
Saves children's lives
In sub-Saharan Africa, approximately 1.8 million children's lives could be saved if their mothers had at least secondary education.5
Fosters peace
If the enrollment rate for secondary schooling is 10 percentage points higher than the average, the risk of war is reduced by about 3 percentage points6
Reduces fertility rates
One additional year of school reduces the probability of becoming a mother by 7.3 % for women who have completed at least primary education.7
Raises crop yields
Wages, agricultural income and productivity are higher where women involved in agriculture receive a better education.8
Reduces child marriage
If all girls had secondary education, child marriage would drop by 64%.9
Reduces maternal deaths
If all mothers completed primary education, maternal deaths would be reduced by two-thirds, saving 189,000 lives.10
Promotes gender equality
One additional school year can increase a woman's earnings by 10% to 20%.11
Combats HIV and AIDS
Women with post-primary education are five times more likely than illiterate women to be educated on the topic of HIV and AIDS.12
- GEM Report, p. 8
- GEM Report, p. 7
- GEM Report, p. 19
- GEM Report, p. 6
- GEM Report, p. 35
- World Bank, Understanding Civil War, p. 34
- World Bank, p. 3
- GEM Report p. 4
- Education Transforms, p. 17
- Education Transforms, p. 7
- World Bank
- UNICEF, The Education Vaccine Against HIV, p. 9


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Exciting Last Minute May Special - Book 6 Nights Receive the 7th Night Free!(40 Reviews)
The owner has been emailed.
This owner doesn't offer online booking through VRBO's checkout. You won't be eligible for our Book with Confidence Guarantee.
Never use instant money transfer services such as Western Union and MoneyGram. Learn more
- Minimum stay:6 nights
- Sleeps:5
- Bedrooms:2
- Bathrooms:2
- Property type:Condo
- Internet:Yes
- Pets considered:No
- Wheel chair accessible:N/A
About the Property
Quiet top floor, end unit with courtyard and ocean views - remodeled in 2015
Location: Kamaole Sands, Kihei South, Kihei, South Maui, Hawaii .U.S.A.
Accommodations: Condominium – 2 bedrooms, 2 baths, sleeps 5.
Our unit is owner operated. We accept VISA and Mastercard
Kristina said... Feb 17, 2015
The best in Kamaole Sands!!!! (32154)
Absolutely perfect vacation! This unit is stocked with absolutely anything you would need on vacation. It is very clean and comfortable and Rich was a pleasure to deal with. This unit far exceeds any other unit we have stayed in at kamaole Sands. This was, hands down, the best vacation home we have ever rented. It is incredible value for a 5 star stay!!!!
Edmonton Family said... Feb 9, 2015
We have had the pleasure of recently staying at this amazing condo! We have stayed in 4 different condos on the same property, this condo is by far the very best. The owners have put their time and effort into making sure it is clean, updated, equipped, and everything a guest could ever need! After a day in the sun, this condo is the perfect place to retreat to. We have already booked our next trip to Maui to stay at this incredible condo.
We are a Canadian family from Victoria, B.C. and Edmonton, Alberta. We are incredibly proud of our Home Away from Home and invite you to experience all that our previous guests have and to share our home.
We are on the top floor, end unit, often referred to as a "Penthouse" that guarantees quiet. Sit on the lanai and enjoy the beautiful manicured gardens, pool and peek-at the ocean view, a full view of the ocean can be seen from the front door or take a five minute stroll to the fabulous Kamaole III Beach across the street and watch the breathtaking sunsets.
Go up the spiral staircase to the King size bed in the Master Bedroom, knowing that your family has two full size beds in the second bedroom.
A complete major main floor renovation was completed in February 2015. We refuse to compromise when it comes to housekeeping.
After a day in the sun our ultra quiet air conditioning system throughout the unit provides exactly what you need – "Cool Air".
Located in Building "7"considered to be on of the more desirable buildings facing the inner court yard a short stroll through the gorgeous gardens to ocean but far enough from the street to guarantee quiet.
Kamaole Sands, long known as a premier property is nestled in the middle of 15 acres of manicured lawn, gardens, fountains and fish pond. Kamaole Sands offers several sparkling clean barbecue areas, tennis courts, pools (adult pool and 1 toddler pool), 2 hot tubs, exercise room and on-site Expedia Experts to help you plan tours on the island.
You owe it to yourself to experience what all previous guests rave about!
Keywords: Luxury Condo
Before making a payment, always call the owner at the number listed on our website to make sure your payment instructions are accurate.
Never use instant money transfer services such as Western Union and MoneyGram.Learn more
Member since: 2003
Property Type
- Condo
- On floor 4
- 1166 sq. ft.
House Rules
- Max. occupancy 5
- Non Smoking Only
- Pets Not Allowed
Accommodation Type
- Vacation Rental
- Guests Provide Their Own Meals
- Long-Term Renters Welcome
Bedrooms: 2 Bedrooms, Sleeps 5, Beds for 2-5
Other Amenities
- High Speed Internet Available, "No Smoking"
- CD Player
- DVD Player
- Stereo
- Television
- Restaurants
Local Services & Businesses
- Fitness Center
Leisure Activities
- Boating
- Horseback Riding
- Luaus
- Scenic Drives
- Shelling
- Shopping
- Sight Seeing
- Walking
- Whale Watching
Location Type
- Beach View
- Mountain View
- Ocean View
- Resort
Sports & Adventure Activities
- Cycling
- Deepsea Fishing
- Fishing
- Golf
- Hiking
- Jet Skiing
- Sailing
- Snorkeling
- Snorkeling/Diving
- Surfing
- Swimming
- Tennis
- Wind-Surfing
- Dining Area
Air Conditioning:
New Air Conditioning installed 2010. All rooms separately controlled...moreless
- Broadband Access
- Clothes Dryer
- Elevator
- Fitness Room / Equipment:
- Hair Dryer
- Internet:
- Linens Provided
- Living Room
- Parking
- Telephone
- Towels Provided
- Washing Machine
- Coffee Maker
- Cooking Utensils
- Dishes & Utensils
- Dishwasher
- Ice Maker
- Kitchen
- Microwave
- Pantry Items
- Refrigerator
- Toaster
- Deck / Patio
- Lanai / Gazebo
- Outdoor Grill
Pool / Spa
- Communal Pool
- Shared Hot Tub
Building Type
- Building
RatesCurrency Conversion
|Weekend Night
|Monthly *
My Standard Rate
6 night min stay
Additional information about rental rates
- Refundable Damage Deposit $500
- Resort Fee $37
- Exit Cleaning Fee $175
- Tax Rate 14.3%
Minimum 6 night stay.
Initial deposit of $500 due on booking date
Remaining balance due 60 days from arrival
Owner's cancellation policy:
100% refund if canceled at least 30 days before arrival date.
Don't forget your vacation protection! Get protected now
Adding our Vacation Protection services can make sure your getaway goes smoothly, no matter what. We offer Cancellation Protection and Damage Protection so you can truly relax.
Car: Recommended
Tennis (on site)
Owner info
Year Purchased: 2009
About the owner: We are a Canadian family from BC and Alberta with an undying love for Maui
Why the Owner Chose Kihei, HI, USA:
We continuously found ourselves returning to Maui to celebrate any and all momentous occasions in our lives. The last time we returned we knew that we needed a permanent place to come back to!Kamaole Sands building 7 was the perfect place to call our Hawaiian Home!
The Unique Benefits at this Condo:
You will find upon your arrival that our property is equipped with everything you will need for your Maui vacation. It will have something for everyone in your family to enjoy; for the chef in your family you will find a fully stocked kitchen with granite counter tops and stainless steel appliances, for the suntanner in your family, they will be pleased to know you can see the pool from our lanai and can scope out your lounge chair early. For the shopping enthusiast you will be delighted to know that we are less than a 4 minute drive from the Wailea shopping centre (quite possibly the best shops in all of Maui), for the water lover you are right across the street from Kamaole Beach Park III and a 2 minute walk from the boat launch for your deep sea snorkel trip. Our condo has a unique layout with 2 bedrooms - 1 king bed located in the 2nd story loft and 2 double beds on the main floor. Sit on the lanai and enjoy your afternoon puu puus and happy hour. To keep in touch with your loved ones on the mainland we have full access to internet, cable, netflix and phone. The condo is located on the inner part of the complex, over looking the fully groomed, beautifully landscaped gardens of Kamaole Sands - it is one of the most quiet buildings in 'The Sands'.
Contact us
Send email
- Primary: (250) 733-2601 (British Columbia, Canada)
- Secondary: +1 5873359089
Links to more information:
- Click Here to see All My Rental Listings
Dining Area
Main floor bedroom - 2 Double Beds, Large closet, Air conditioning
Master Bedroom Upstairs
Main floor bathroom, walk in shower
Master bathroom
Living Room View
View of the ocean from the front door
BBQ Area
Beach within walking distance from the condo
Gourmet, fully equipped kitchen
Main floor bedroom. 2 Double beds.
Master Bedroom
Main floor bathroom
Living Room
View from the lanai
Pool Area
Fountain on grounds
This listing was first published here in 2003.
Date last modified - Saturday, April 22, 2017
Partner Offers
Enter dates to see accurate pricing
This owner doesn't offer online booking through VRBO's checkout. You won't be eligible for our Book with Confidence Guarantee.
Never use instant money transfer services such as Western Union and MoneyGram.
Send a Message
Contact the owner or see rate notes on this listing for additional information and fees
By clicking 'Send Request' you are agreeing to our Terms and Conditions
Send a message to owner
Anonymously report this listing
Thank you
We appreciate your participation and assistance with our efforts to operate the most secure and trusted vacation rental marketplace in the industry
If you have any questions, please visit our Help Center.


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A packed Court Central at Roland Garros gave a standing ovation to Marat Safin, and his clay-spattered opponent Juan Carlos Ferrero, at the culmination of the finest match of the tournament so far, a 7-6 7-5 1-6 7-6 third-round victory carved out in a gruelling three hours 45 minutes.
A packed Court Central at Roland Garros gave a standing ovation to Marat Safin, and his clay-spattered opponent Juan Carlos Ferrero, at the culmination of the finest match of the tournament so far, a 7-6 7-5 1-6 7-6 third-round victory carved out in a gruelling three hours 45 minutes.
Safin, so often a disappointment since capturing the US Open in 2000, has again suffered torment since winning his second Grand Slam, the Australian Open, in January. But here he was on top form to confound the recent statistics between these two former world No 1s. Ferrero had won four of their previous five matches, including three on clay, but here he was eventually battered into submission by Safin's flat-out assault in the second tiebreak.
Ferrero, handicapped by a badly blistered left foot, was never able to match that sort of power but stayed in contention for a title he won two years ago with his variations of angle and pace. This was only Safin's 10th singles win, against eight defeats, since capturing the Australian Open The opening-set tiebreak was won comfortably by Safin and he broke for a 6-5 lead in the second set, claiming a two sets to love lead with his seventh ace. Ferrero perhaps surprised himself with the ease of his winning margin in the third set, but it was back to the hard grind in the fourth, in which Safin gradually gained the upper hand.
The Russian held one break point for what would have given him a 5-3 lead, but the Spaniard escaped, watched by his new romantic interest, Maria Sharapova. However, the options were narrowing and when the second tiebreak arrived every avenue was rapidly closed. Safin opened with an ace, gained a minibreak with a smash and rounded out an overdue victory with another smash.
Having stifled French expectations by ousting their young hope Richard Gasquet, Rafael Nadal will again risk the ire of the French Open audience when he takes on the country's No 1, Sébastien Grosjean, in the fourth round this afternoon.
Nadal's reduction of Gasquet, a fellow 18-year-old who had given him a tough time in the Monte Carlo semi-finals, was executed with a professionalism bordering on the breathtaking for one so young. On his Roland Garros debut, the fourth-seeded Nadal has yet to drop a set. Gasquet, on the verge of physical collapse by the end of the second set, was reduced to lamenting that he had been made to look like a junior by someone stronger, fitter and better at the game.
Like his ability to converse in English, Nadal's game is also coming along at a healthy lick. Though his coach and uncle, Toni Nadal, is keen not to let the praise become too much and said of his nephew the other day: "For the moment I consider him a good player, not a great player," Uncle Toni is in a minority with that opinion.
The young Nadal's eye-opening maturity on things such as shot selection and strategy have attracted more and more admirers. Gasquet was undermined, and eventually overwhelmed, by Nadal's high-bouncing, topspin ground strokes to the deepest corners. As ever, Nadal walked off looking as fresh as when he sprinted on to the court.
The fact that Nadal is a left-hander, albeit a manufactured one, is what is troubling so many of his top opponents, since there has not been a lefty in the top 10 for five seasons. Roger Federer, ever the man for a challenge, says, "I think it's good [Rafael] is a lefty because it changes the dimension of the rallies, the way you play. It puts a totally different game plan in place."
Federer's new coach, Tony Roche, the second-best left-hander of his era after Rod Laver, agrees: "So many of the guys are programmed to play a certain way, so that goes right into Nadal's strength." Today will tell whether Grosjean, who possesses no big weapon but has much durability, can come up with an answer to prevent Nadal moving one step closer to the Roland Garros dream match - a Friday semi-final between Federer and Nadal on the youngster's 19th birthday.Reuse content


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Beef Liver Yucatan
|2 , sliced
|Green pepper
|1 , thinly sliced
|2 , chopped
|Beef liver
|1 Pound, cut into thin strips (450 Gram)
|Chili powder
|15 Milliliter (1 Tablespoon)
|Cumin powder
|1 Teaspoon
|1⁄2 Teaspoon
Place onion rings and green pepper slices in a large skillet, and steam-stir in enough water to prevent sticking until onion begins to turn transparent.
Add tomatoes and stir over medium heat until onion and pepper are tender.
Place liver strips over the onion mixture, add spices, and cover.
Steam liver just until tender; pink juices should remain in slices.
Add tamari, stirring liver and vegetables to combine, and serve with rice or boiled potatoes.
Recipe Summary
Rate It
Nutrition Rank
Nutrition Facts
Serving size
Calories 428 Calories from Fat 92
% Daily Value*
Total Fat 10 g15.8%
Saturated Fat 3.2 g15.8%
Trans Fat 0.4 g
Cholesterol 623.7 mg207.9%
Sodium 318.5 mg13.3%
Total Carbohydrates 35 g11.6%
Dietary Fiber 7.7 g30.6%
Sugars 11.4 g
Protein 50 g100.9%
Vitamin A 837.1% Vitamin C 156.4%
Calcium 9.6% Iron 76.2%
*Based on a 2000 Calorie diet


text:
Fossil® Travel Wallet
$71.99 Original Price $128.00
Savings: $56.01 (43%)
Wherever your adventures take you, don't leave home without Fossil's best-dressed travel wallet. Crafted in embellished neon coral leather, this ideal organizer contains a handful of pockets to carry your passport, cards, cash and coins with ease.
- 8.4-in. L x 0.8-in. W x 4.8-in. H
- Foldover closure
- Interior: 1 ID window, 1 zipper pocket, 3 slide pockets, 9 credit card slots
- Cotton, polyurethane
- Clean with a soft cloth.
Shipping & Returns
Shipping your purchase is easy on belk.com. Depending on the destination of your package, you can expect it to arrive within 4-7 business days. Shipping Information
Returns are easy on belk.com. Easy returns


text:
Tuesday, 14 March 2017 07:39
The inaudible voice of Buhari: Are Nigerians important?
The return of President Muhammadu Buhari (PMB) after a 50 day medical vacation in the UK have doused the tension and speculations about his health status. Nonetheless, public comments signals that many thinks he is neither incapacitated nor medically fit. Being mortal, it is not anomalous for PMB to be ill, but the inaudibility of his
Published in Opinion
Thursday, 02 March 2017 08:34
South Africa: Xenophobia or 'Afro-Asiaphobia'?
The recent upsurge in anti-immigrant attacks in South Africa has renewed concerns about the episodic wave of what some people call xenophobic attacks in that country. It is estimated that between 2008 and 2015, about 350 people lost their lives in such 'xenophobic' attacks in the country. But is it really right to call the
Published in Opinion
Tuesday, 21 February 2017 11:31
Nothing to worry about my health - Buhari
President Muhammadu Buhari on Tuesday assured Nigerians there was no reason to panic over his state of health. Buhari, who, however, noted that results of the series of medical checkups he carried out in the cause of his medical vacation had shown that he needed longer period of rest, added it was the reason for his staying back in London
Published in News Update
Saturday, 18 February 2017 20:52
Come back home, Mr. President
Come back home, come back homeCome back home, come back homeCome back home; Nigerians are missing you Come back home; Nigerians are waiting for you Mr. President, your health and wellbeing are important to us. Nigerians want to see and feel you. We are like a family whose breadwinner has been away for sometimes. We know that you feel
Thursday, 09 February 2017 09:25
Of citizenship, protests and responsibility
"Protests are good. They keep government on its toes. They help the populace participate and ideally should lead to accountability and good governance. That is the ideal. But protests must have a theme. They must also have a goal and clearly defined outcomes. A protest is not a tea party nor is it playing house. When a protest doesn't
Tuesday, 24 January 2017 15:27
How President Buhari is dealing with Nigerians
President Muhammad Buhari is such a lucky president who came at the time of need. Though he had seen, he is attempting to conquer. He has come on a rescue mission. But not lucky in the Nigerian context because no contemporary Nigerian leader has suffered the humiliation and betrayal he underwent in his quest to lead and cleanse the country. He


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Just Fitness 4U - Multiple Locations
Summer Shape Up or Get FIT ATL Weight-Loss Packages at Just Fitness 4U (Up to 89% Off)
The Fine Print
- Expires 180 days after purchase.
- Valid only at listed locations. Limit 1 per person, may buy 2 additional as gifts. Valid only for option purchased. All goods or services must be used by the same person. Must use all services at same location. Must sign waiver.


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Need some extra space storage for your motorcycle? Enter the city or zip code of your choice into the search bar to find the best motorcycle storage for rent nearby. Once you locate a Raleigh vehicle storage facility, rent car storage, rv storage, motorcycle storage, boat storage or trailer storage in Raleigh, IL, compare unit sizes, prices, amenities, discounts, reviews and photos. Once you select the public storage unit in Raleigh that best fits your needs, simply reserve online for free and lock in your auto storage unit price and discount. If you choose, you can call and speak to a friendly and professional customer service representative, who could answer all your questions and who could take a reservation over the phone for free. No credit card is required to reserve Raleigh vehicle storage units online or by phone. An e-mail will be automatically forwarded to your inbox. Your vehicle storage unit will be available for you when you arrive at the Raleigh self-storage facility on your selected move in date. Finding cheap car storage units, cheap rv storage units, cheap motorcycle storage units and cheap boat storage units in Raleigh, is fast and easy.
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Motorcycle Storage unit prices in Raleigh start as low as $18.00 per month. Typically outside storage space is less expensive and is typically located around the outside area of the storage facilities. You will find that an enclosed vehicle storage unit will cost more than an uncovered parking space. The most common enclosed vehicle storage units in Raleigh are 10' X 15' and 10' X 20' and standard ceiling storage unit heights are 8 feet high. Enclosed motorcycle storage units, jet ski storage units, wave runner storage units and ATV storage units sizes are normally 5' X 10' and 10' X 10'. Uncovered or outside storage space sizes in Raleigh are normally 10' X 20', 10' X 25' or 10' X 30' and these parking spaces can be used for rv storage, boat storage or even trailer storage.
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Filter Results:
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This study reports on the mechanothermal synthesis of multiwalled carbon nanotube (MWCNTs) from elemental graphite powder. Initially, high ultra-active graphite powder can be obtained by mechanical milling under argon atmosphere. Finally, the mechanical activation product is heat-treated at 1350°C for 2–4 h under argon gas flow. After heat-treatment, active… (More)
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Shri M Nagaraj, Chairman-cum-Managing Director of PEC Limited is a qualified Cost Accountant & Company Secretary and is also a certified Banker having qualification of CAIIB. He holds Post Graduate degree in Management i.e., MBA with Specialisation in Finance.
He has varied experience of around 26 years in multitude of sectors such as Housing, Infrastructure, Skill Development and Micro Finance in Social Sector, and has strong fundamentals in Managerial Capabilities and e-governance for corporate sector.
Prior to joining PEC Limited he was Managing Director in National Safai Karmacharis Finance and Development Corporation (NSKFDC) under the aegis of Ministry of Social Justice and Empowerment. Prior to that he was Director in IIFCL Projects Limited and also General Manager in IIFCL, handling the Portfolios of Project Finance especially Take-out Finance Scheme of IIFCL, Board Secretariat, Vigilance Activities, Business Development etc.
Before joining IIFCL, he had worked with Housing and Urban Development Corporation Limited (HUDCO) and was holding the position of Deputy General Manager.
Shri J. Ravi Shanker, Director (Marketing) of PEC Limited, did his graduation in engineering from the Indian Institute of Technology, New Delhi. He has more than 30 years of experience in international trading and has headed various divisions in the company including Finance and Personnel.
Shri Anupam Misra, Director (Marketing) of PEC Limited, did his graduation in engineering from the Indian Institute of Technology, Kharagpur and Post Graduation in Management from IIM , Lucknow, Noida Campus. He has more than 23 years of experience in international trading.
International Trading, Global business interest, Multi-product scenario.
Responsible for Profit and Loss, Extensive experience at Senior Management position in International Business, Sales and Marketing, Competitive Bidding, Commodities Business, Relationship Management, Operations Management, Developing new businesses across geographies.
Specialties: Understanding of International Trade Transactions (UCPDC, Incoterms), Structuring Business Deals, Negotiations, Contract Management, Procurement, Key Account Management
Ms. Rupa Dutta, Economic Advisor, Department of Commerce, Ministry of Commerce and Industry, Government of India, is a Government Nominee on the Board of PEC Limited. She is an IES Officer from the 1986 Batch. She has previously worked in the Planning Commission and the Ministry of Women and Child Development.
Shri Udesinh Baria, Director, PEC Limited is an Independent Director on the Board of PEC Limited. He is a law Graduate and Ex- Law Minister, Gujarat. Shri Baria is also on the Board of Baroda Gujarat Gramin Bank as a Director.
Shri Shobhit Jain, Director, Department of Commerce, Ministry of Commerce and Industry, Government of India, is a Government Nominee on the Board of PEC Limited. He is from Indian Revenue Services.


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community impact
Since its inception in 2004, the Reebok Canton Road Race has raised over $300,000 for the Canton Association of Business and Industry Charitable Foundation, a registered 501(c)(3) organization working to make Canton a better community for everyone. CABI distributes 100% of race proceeds to support local charities, civic organizations and scholarships, Recipients have included the Massachusetts Hospital School, the Canton Police and Fire Departments, and the Canton Food Pantry. Proceeds also fund scholarships for students at Canton High School and Blue Hills Regional Technical School who are actively involved in the community.
"Thank you for choosing me as a 2014 scholarship recipient. It helped me cover the cost of my books this semester!"
-Canton High School scholarship recipient
"With CABI's support, we were able to purchase essential safety equipment."
-Canton Police Chief
thank you to our 2014 sponsors!
Reebok - Boston Mutual Insurance - Homewood Suites - Computershare - Dunkin Brands - Bank of Canton - Humboldt Moving & Storage - Amphastar Pharmaceuticals - HarborOne Credit Union - Wilder Companies - FM Generator - Armstrong Pharmaceuticals - FIS - Harbar - Canton Citizen - Elite Fitness - DXL - Absolute - Galvin - Coldwell Banker


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Our next events
Pub Meetup: March 29
From 7:00pm
The Old Thameside Inn
near London Bridge
More about our pub meetups
Pub Meetup: April 26
From 7:00pm
Venue TBC
More about our pub meetups
Talk: May 31
Topic TBC
ustwo, Shoreditch
More about our Talks
Pub Meetup: May 31
Following our Talks
Venue TBC
More about our pub meetups
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We've been running our meetups since January 2011, inviting illustration professionals and students to meet in a friendly environment to chat about the industry.
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Managerial Statistics
Why are we all here? In a classroom, near the beginning of an executive M.B.A. program in management, getting ready to start a course on …
The job of a manager is to make …
decisions. What's so hard about that?
Fundamental Fact of Life
causal relationships the things we really care about the things we directly control are typically NOT So, why don't we just give up? What makes life worth living? FAITH!
This Course … is focused on a single statistical tool for studying relationships: Regression Analysis That said, we won't use this tool until we reach the second section of the course. First, we need to be comfortable with the two "languages" of statistics The language of estimation ("trust") The language of hypothesis testing ("evidence")
Our Four Sessions Together
The ideas underlying statistics, and the two languages of statistics The "science" of regression analysis (how to use the tool) The "art" of regression analysis (regression modeling – how to use the tool wisely and well) More modeling
First Part of Class An overview of statistics
What is statistics? Why is it done? How is it done? What is the fundamental idea behind all of it? The language of estimation Who cares? Two technical issues, one of which can't be avoided
What is "Statistics"? Statistics is focused on making inferences about a group of individuals (the population of interest) using only data collected from a subgroup (the sample). Why might we do this? Perhaps … the population is large, and looking at all individuals would be too costly or too time-consuming taking individual measurements is destructive some members of the population aren't available for direct observation
Managers aren't Paid to be Historians
Their concern is how their decisions will play out in the future. Still, if the near-term future can be expected to be similar to the recent past, then the past can be viewed as a sample from a larger population consisting of both the recent past and the soon-to-come future. The sample gives us insight into the population as a whole, and therefore into whatever the future holds in store. Indeed, even if you stand in the middle of turbulent times, data from past similarly turbulent times may help you find the best path forward.
How is Statistics Done? Any statistical study consists of three specifications: How will the data be collected? How much data will be collected in this way? What will be computed from the data? Running example: Estimating the average age across a population, in preparation for a sales pitch.
1. How Will the Data be Collected?
Primary Goals: No bias High precision Low cost Simple random sampling with replacement Typically implemented via systematic sampling Simple random sampling without replacement Typically done if a population list is available Covered in marketing research Stratified sampling Done if the population consists of subgroups with substantial within-group homogeneity Cluster sampling Done if the population consists of (typically geographic) subgroups with substantial within-group heterogeneity Specialized approaches
2. How is the Sample Size Chosen?
In order to yield the desired (target) precision (to be made clearer in a while) simple random sampling with replacement sample size of 5
3. What Will be Done with the Data?
Some possible estimates of the population mean from the five observations: median (third largest) average of extremes ( [largest + smallest] / 2) sample mean ( x = (x1+x2+x3+x4+x5)/5) smallest (probably not a very good idea)
We've Finally Chosen an Estimation Procedure!
simple random sampling with replacement sample size of 5 our estimate of the population mean will be the sample mean, x = (x1+x2+x3+x4+x5)/5 This will certainly give us an estimate. But how much can we trust that estimate???
The Fundamental Idea underlying All of Statistics
At the moment I decide how I'm going to make an estimate, if I look into the future, the (not yet determined) end result of my chosen estimation procedure looks like a random variable. Using the tools of probability, I can analyze this random variable to see how precise my ultimate (after the procedure is carried out) estimate is likely to be.
Some Notation population size, N mean, standard deviation, , where 2=∑(xi-)2 / N sample size, n sample mean, x sample standard deviation, s, where s2=∑(xi- x )2 / (n-1)
For Our Estimation Procedure, with X Representing the End Result
E[ X ] = our procedure is right, on average StDev( X ) = /n if this is small, our procedure typically gives an estimate close to X is approximately normally distributed (from the Central Limit Theorem)
Pulling This All Together, Here's the "Language" of Estimation
"I conducted a study to estimate {something} about {some population}. My estimate is {some value}. The way I went about making this estimate, I had {a large chance} of ending up with an estimate within {some small amount} of the truth." For example, "I conducted a study to estimate the mean amount spent on furniture over the past year by current subscribers to our magazine. My estimate is $530. The way I went about making this estimate, I had a 95% chance of ending up with an estimate within $36 of the truth."
For Simple Random Sampling with Replacement
"I conducted a study to estimate , the mean value of something that varies from one individual to the next across the given population. "My estimate is x . The way I went about making this estimate, I had a 95% chance of ending up with an estimate within 1.96·/n of the truth. "(And the other 5% of the time, I'd typically be off by only slightly more than this.)"
There's Only One Problem …
We don't know ! So we cheat a bit, and use s (an estimate of based on the sample data) instead. And so … Our estimate of is x , and the margin of error (at the 95%-confidence level) is 1.96·s/n .
And That's It! We can afford to standardize our language of "trust" around the notion of 95% confidence, because translations to other levels of confidence are simple. The following statements are totally synonymous: I'm 90%-confident that my estimate is wrong by no more than $ (~1.64)·s/√n I'm 95%-confident that my estimate is wrong by no more than $ (~1.96)·s/√n I'm 99%-confident that my estimate is wrong by no more than $ (~2.58)·s/√n
Next Why should a manager want to know the margin of error in an estimate? Some necessary technical details Polling (estimating the proportion of the population with some qualitative property) The language of hypothesis testing (evaluating evidence: to what extent does data support or contradict a statement?)
The Language of Estimation (for Simple Random Sampling with Replacement)
the standard error of the mean (one standard-deviation's-worth of exposure to error when estimating the population mean) the margin of error (implied, unless otherwise explicitly stated: at the 95%-confidence level) when the sample mean is used as an estimate of the population mean a 95%-confidence interval for the population mean μ
To whom, and where, is the $36 margin of error of relevance?
Advertising Sales A magazine publishing house wishes to estimate (for purposes of advertising sales) the average annual expenditure on furniture among its subscribers. A sample of 100 subscribers is chosen at random from the 100,000-person subscription list, and each sampled subscriber is questioned about their furniture purchases over the last year. The sample mean response is $530, with a sample standard deviation of $180. To whom, and where, is the $36 margin of error of relevance?
Put Yourself in the Shoes of the Marketing Manager at a Furniture Company
Part of your job is to track the performance of current ad placements. Each month … You apportion sales across all the placements. You divide sales by placement costs. You rank the placements by "bang per buck." The lowest ranked placement is at the top of your replacement list, and its ratio determines the hurdle a new opportunity must clear to replace it.
Keep Yourself in the Shoes of the Marketing Manager at the Furniture Company
Another part of your job is to learn the relationship between properties of specific ad placements, and the performance of those placements. You do this using regression analysis, with the characteristics of, and return on, previous placements as your sample data. Given the characteristics of a new opportunity (e.g., number of subscribers to a magazine, and how much the average subscriber spends on furniture in a year), you can predict the likely return on your advertising dollar if you take advantage of this opportunity.
One Day, the Advertising Sales Representative for a Magazine Drops By
S/he wants you to buy space in this magazine. You ask (among other things), "What's the average amount your subscribers spend on furniture per year?" S/he says, " $530 ± $36 " You put $530 (and other relevant information) into your regression model … and it predicts a return greater than your current hurdle rate! Do you jump onboard?
What If the $530 is an Over-Estimate or an Under-Estimate?
The predicted bang-per-buck could actually be worse than your hurdle rate! There are many ways to do a risk analysis, and you'll discuss them throughout the program. They all require that you know something about the uncertainty in numbers you're using. At the very least, you can put $494 and $566 into your prediction model, and see what you would predict in those cases. [More generally, (margin-of-error/1.96) is one standard-deviation's-worth of "noise" in the estimate. This can be used in more sophisticated analyses.]
Sometimes It's Right to Say "Maybe"
If the prediction looks good at both extremes, you can be relatively confident that this is a good opportunity. If it looks meaningfully bad at either extreme, you delay your decision: "Gee! This sounds interesting, but your numbers are a bit too fuzzy for me to make a decision. Please go back and collect some more data. If the estimate stands up, and the margin of error can be brought down, I might be able to say "Yes.""
Practical Issues If it looks good, either now or on a second visit, be sure to get details on the estimation study in writing as part of your deal. (Then you can sue for fraud if you learn the rep was lying.) The risk analysis I've described is quite simplistic. You can (and will learn to) do better. But you'll need the margin of error for any approach.
General Discussion How would our answer ($530 ± $36) change, if there were 400,000 subscribers (instead of 100,000)? It wouldn't change at all! "N" doesn't appear in our formulas. The precision of our estimate depends on the sample size, but NOT on the size of the population being studied. This is WONDERFUL!!!
(Continued) What if there had been only 4,000 subscribers?
Still no change. What if there had been only 100 subscribers? But wait! Ahhh!! … Everything we've said so far, and the formulas we've derived, are for an estimation procedure involving simple random sampling with replacement.
Technical Detail #1 If we'd used simple random sampling without replacement: E[ X wo] = , the procedure is still right on average StDev( X wo) = (/n)· : this is somewhat different! X wo is still approximately normally distributed (from the Central Limit Theorem)
For Simple Random Sampling without Replacement
But for typical managerial settings, this extra factor is just a hair less than 1. For example, if N = 100,000 and n = 100, the factor is So in managerial settings the factor is usually ignored, and we'll use for both types of simple random sampling.
Technical Detail #2 twice! In coming up with , we cheated …
We invoked the Central Limit Theorem to get the 1.96, even though the CLT only says, "The bigger the bunch of things being aggregated, the closer the aggregate will come to having a normal distribution." As long as the sample size is a couple of dozen or more, OR even smaller when drawn from an approximately normal population distribution, this cheat turns out to be relatively innocuous. We used s instead of . This cheat is a bit more severe when the sample size is small. So we cover for it by raising the 1.96 factor a bit. twice!
Very Technical Detail #2
By how much do we lift the 1.96 multiplier? To a number that comes from the t-distribution with n-1 "degrees of freedom." This adjusts for using estimates of variability (such as s) instead of the actual variability (such as ), and for deriving these estimates from the same data already used to estimate other things (such as x for ).
Correcting for Using s Instead of
t-distribution degrees of freedom 95% central probability 1 12.706 11 2.201 21 2.080 2 4.303 12 2.179 22 2.074 3 3.182 13 2.160 23 2.069 4 2.776 14 2.145 24 2.064 5 2.571 15 2.131 25 2.060 6 2.447 16 2.120 30 2.042 7 2.365 17 2.110 40 2.021 8 2.306 18 2.101 60 2.000 9 2.262 19 2.093 120 1.980 10 2.228 20 2.086 ∞ 1.960 Note that, as the sample size grows, the correct "approximately 2" multiplier becomes closer and closer to 1.96.
And How Do We Do This? Fortunately, any decent statistical software these days will count degrees of freedom, look in the appropriate t-distribution tables, and give us the slightly-larger-than-1.96 number we should use. In general, just think (one standard deviation's worth of uncertainty in the way the estimate was made) (your estimate) ± (~2) · as in where the (~2) is determined by the computer
Imagine 100 teams, each trying to estimate the population mean (of a population which happens to actually have a true mean, unknown to the teams, of 75) using a sample size of 100. Some will overestimate, and others will underestimate. But considering the margin of error in each estimate at the 95%-confidence level, we would expect only 5 of the 95 to be wrong by more than that margin of error. (Here, just by chance, only 4 were unlucky enough to miss by more than the margin of error.)
Here, with the same sample data, each makes the same estimate as before. But the margin of error at the 90%-confidence level is smaller. Here, we'd expect about 10 to be off by that margin of error or more: Required to specify a smaller margin of error based on the same data, they must express less confidence that their actual error is below that smaller threshold.
Here, with the same sample data, each makes the same estimate as before. But the margin of error at the 99%-confidence level is larger. Here, we'd expect about 1 to be off by that margin of error or more: Allowed to express a larger margin of error based on the same data, they can express more confidence that their actual error is below that larger threshold.
With a larger sample size (500), the margins of error at every level of confidence are smaller than before.
A Last Bit of Language ( the standard error of the
As we move forward, we'll be making a variety of estimates and predictions. In each case, we'll use the following terminology: the standard error of the estimate or prediction = one standard-deviation's-worth of potential error in our estimate or prediction due to random "noise" in the estimation or prediction process We'll be running into the standard error of the mean, proportion, prediction, estimated mean, and coefficient at various times. The bottom line will always be that a 95%-confidence interval for our estimate or prediction is ( the standard error of the estimate or prediction ) (your estimate or prediction) ± (~2) ·
Polling If the individuals in the population differ in some qualitative way, we often wish to estimate the proportion / fraction / percentage of the population with some given property. For example: We track the sex of purchasers of our product, and find that, across 400 recent purchasers, 240 were female. What do we estimate to be the proportion of all purchasers who are female, and how much do we trust our estimate?
First, the Estimate Let Obviously, this will be our estimate for the population proportion. But how much can this estimate be trusted?
And Now, the Trick Imagine that each woman is represented by a "1", and each man by a "0". Then the proportion (of the sample or population) which is female is just the mean of these numeric values, and so estimating a proportion is just a special case of what we've already done!
The Result Estimating a mean: Estimating a proportion: The example:
[When all of the numeric values are either 0 or 1, s takes the special form shown above.] The example:
Multiple-Choice Questions
If the Republican Party's candidate were to be chosen today, which one would you most prefer? Romney, Cain, Bachman, Perry, Gingrich, Santorum, Paul, Huntsman, none The results are reported as if 9 separate "yes/no" questions had been asked. If the Republican Party's candidate were to be chosen today, which of these would have your approval? The same reporting method is used.
Choice of Sample Size Set a "target" margin of error for your estimate, based on your judgment as to how small will be small enough for those who will be using the estimate to make decisions. There's no magic formula here, even though this is a very important choice: Too large, and your study is useless; too small, and you're wasting money.
Estimating a Proportion: Polling
Pick the target margin of error. Why do news organizations always use 3% or 4% during the election season? Because that's the largest they can get away with. So, for example, n=400 (resp., 625, or 1112) assures a margin of error of no more than 5% (resp., 4%, or 3%).
Estimating a Mean: Choice of Sample Size
Set the target margin of error. Solve From whence comes s? From historical data (previous studies) or from a pilot study (small initial survey). target = $25. s $180. Set n = 207.
The "Square-Root" Effect : Choice of Sample Size after an Initial Study
Given the results of a study, to cut the margin of error in half requires roughly 4 times the original sample size. And generally, the sample size required to achieve a desired margin of error =
How to Read Presidential-Race Polls
When reading political polls, remember that the margin of error in an estimate of the "gap" between the two leading candidates is roughly twice as large as the poll's reported margin of error. The margin of error in the estimated "change in the gap" from one poll to the next is nearly three times as large as the poll's reported margin of error.
Summary Whenever you give an estimate or prediction to someone, or accept an estimate or prediction from someone, in order to facilitate risk analysis be sure the estimate is accompanied by its margin of error: A95%-confidence interval is If you're estimating a mean using simple random sampling: If you're estimating a proportion using simple random sampling: (one standard-deviation's-worth of uncertainty inherent in the way the estimate was made) (your estimate) ± (~2) ·
Hypothesis Testing A statement has been made. We must decide whether to believe it (or not). Our belief decision must ultimately stand on three legs: What does our general background knowledge and experience tell us (for example, what is the reputation of the speaker)? What is the cost of being wrong (believing a false statement, or disbelieving a true statement)? What does the relevant data tell us?
Making the "Belief" Decision
What does our general background knowledge and experience tell us (for example, what is the reputation of the speaker)? – The answer is typically already in the manager's head. What is the cost of being wrong (believing a false statement, or disbelieving a true statement)? – Again, the answer is typically already in the manager's head. What does the relevant data tell us? – The answer is typically not originally in the manager's head. The goal of hypothesis testing is to put it there, in the simplest possible terms. Then, the job of the manager is to pull these three answers together, and make the "belief" decision. The statistical analysis contributes to this decision, but doesn't make it.
Our Goal is Simple: To put into the manager's head a single phrase which summarizes all that the data says with respect to the original statement. "The data, all by itself, makes me ________ suspicious, because the data, all by itself, contradicts the statement ________ strongly." {not at all, a little bit, moderately, quite, very, overwhelmingly} We wish to choose the phrase which best fills the blanks.
What We Won't Do What We Will Do
Compute Pr(statement is true | we see this data). (This depends on our prior beliefs, instead of just on the data. It requires that we pull those beliefs out of the manager's head.) Compute Pr(we see this data | statement is true). This depends just on the data. Since we don't expect to see improbable things on a regular basis, a small value makes us very suspicious. What We Will Do
This is Analogous to the British System of Criminal Justice
The statement on trial – the so-called "null hypothesis" – is that "the accused is innocent." The prosecution presents evidence. The jury asks itself: "How likely is it that this evidence would have turned up, just by chance, if the accused really is innocent?" If this probability is close to 0, then the evidence strongly contradicts the initial presumption of innocence … and the jury finds the accused "Guilty!"
Example: Processing a Loan Application
You're the commercial loan officer at a bank, in the process of reviewing a loan application recently filed by a local firm. Examining the firm's list of assets, you notice that the largest single item is $3 million in accounts receivable. You've heard enough scare stories, about loan applicants "manufacturing" receivables out of thin air, that it seems appropriate to check whether these receivables actually exist. You send a junior associate, Mary, out to meet with the firm's credit manager. Whatever report Mary brings back, your final decision of whether to believe that the claimed receivables exist will be influenced by the firm's general reputation, and by any personal knowledge you may have concerning the credit manager. As well, the consequences of being wrong – possibly approving an overly-risky loan if you decide to believe the receivables are there and they're not, or alienating a commercial client by disbelieving the claim and requiring an outside credit audit of the firm before continuing to process the application, when indeed the receivables are as claimed – will play a role in your eventual decision.
Processing a Loan Application
Later in the day, Mary returns from her meeting. She reports that the credit manager told her there were 10,000 customers holding credit accounts with the firm. He justified the claimed value of receivables by telling her that the average amount due to be paid per account was at least $300. With his permission, she confirmed (by physical measurement) the existence of about 10,000 customer folders. (You decide to accept this part of the credit manager's claim.) She selected a random sample of 64 accounts at random, and contacted the account-holders. They all acknowledged soon-to-be-paid debts to the firm. The sample mean amount due was $280, with a sample standard deviation of $120. What do we make of this data? It contradicts the claim to some extent, but how strongly? It could be that the claim is true, and Mary simply came up with an underestimate due to the randomness of her sampling (her "exposure to sampling error").
Compute, then Interpret
What do we make of Mary's data? We answer this question in two steps. First, we compute Pr(we see this data | statement is true). More precisely: This number is called the significance level of the data, with respect to the statement under investigation (i.e., with respect to the null hypothesis). (Some authors/software call this significance level the "p-value" of the data.) Then, we interpret the number: A small value forces us to say, "Either the statement is true, and we've been very unlucky (i.e., we've drawn a very misrepresentative sample), or the statement is false. We don't typically expect to be very unlucky, so the data, all by itself, makes us quite suspicious." Pr ( conducting a study such as we just did, we'd see data at least as contradictory to the statement as the data we are, in fact, seeing | the statement is true, in a way that fits the observed data as well as possible )
Null Hypothesis: "≥$300"
Mary's sample mean is $280. Giving the original statement every possible chance of being found "innocent," we'll assume that Mary did her study in a world where the true mean is actually $300. Let be the estimate Mary might have gotten, had she done her study in this assumed world.
the t-distribution with 63 degrees of freedom
The significance level of Mary's data, with respect to the null hypothesis: " ≥ $300", is The probability that Mary's study would have yielded a sample mean of $280 or less, given that her study was actually done in a world where the true mean is $300. = $300 s/n = $120/64 = $15 the t-distribution with 63 degrees of freedom 9.36%
The "Hypothesis Testing Tool"
The spreadsheet "Hypothesis_Testing_Tool.xls," in the "Session 1" folder, does the required calculations automatically.
And now, how do we interpret "9.36%"?
Coin_Tossing.htm numeric significance level of the data interpretation: the data, all by itself, makes us the data supports the alternative hypothesis above 20% not at all suspicious not at all between 10% and 20% a little bit suspicious a little bit between 5% and 10% moderately suspicious moderately between 2% and 5% very suspicious strongly between 1% and 2% extremely suspicious very strongly below 1% overwhelmingly suspicious incredibly strongly
Processing a Loan Application
So the data, all by itself, makes us "a bit suspicious." What do we do? It depends. If the credit manager is a trusted lifelong friend … If the credit manager is already under suspicion … What if Mary's sample mean were $260? With a significance level of 0.49%, the data, all by itself, makes us "overwhelmingly suspicious" …
The One-Sided Complication
A jury never finds the accused "innocent." For example, if the prosecution presents no evidence at all, the jury simply finds the accused "not proven to be guilty." Just so, we never conclude that data supports the null hypothesis. However, if data contradicts the null hypothesis, we can conclude that it supports the alternative.
So, If We Wish to Say that Data Supports a Claim …
We take the opposite of the claim as our null hypothesis, and see if the data contradicts that opposite. If so, then we can say that the data supports the original claim. Examples: A clinical test of a new drug will take as the null hypothesis that patients who take the drug are equally or less healthy than those who don't. An evaluation of a new marketing campaign will take as the null hypothesis that the campaign is not effective.
And That's It! With the languages of estimation and hypothesis testing in place, it's time to learn REGRESSION ANALYSIS!
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