text:
- 2014 hurricane season
- crude oil prices
- DeepWater Wind
- Dr. Scott Tinker
- Dr. Ted Patzek
- global warming
- Heartland Institute
- Herbert E. Stevens
- LNG exports
- Musings From the Oil Patch
- natural gas
- Nature magazine
- oil demand
- oil supply
- sea levels
- Senator Sheldon Whitehouse
- solar power
- Texas Bureau of Economic Geology
- U.S. petrochemicals
- Debate Grows Over Illusion of 100-Year Gas Supply Scenari
- 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season Was Least Active In 30 Years
- Crude Oil: $58; Next Stop $40 Or $100?
- Questioning Environmental Claims Dangerous To Reputation
- Renewables Battle For Opportunities And NE Is Ground Zero
Musings From the Oil Patch
December 16, 2014
Allen Brooks
Managing Director
Note: Musings from the Oil Patch reflects an eclectic collection of stories and analyses dealing with issues and developments within the energy industry that I feel have potentially significant implications for executives operating oilfield service companies. The newsletter currently anticipates a semi-monthly publishing schedule, but periodically the event and news flow may dictate a more frequent schedule. As always, I welcome your comments and observations. Allen Brooks
Debate Grows Over Illusion of 100-Year Gas Supply Scenario (Top)
In our November 18th issue of the Musings, our lead article questioned whether the liquefied natural gas (LNG) export market in the United States might be derailed almost before it gets underway due to there being less natural gas supply around, especially at low prices, than commonly assumed. Our article was based on a presentation given in Houston a few weeks prior by Dr. Scott Tinker, a professor of geology at the Jackson School of Geology, at the University of Texas at Austin and the director of the Texas Bureau of Economic Geology (BEG), which is leading an assessment of shale oil and gas plays across the country. We had attended the breakfast meeting where Dr. Tinker made his presentation, during which he showed a slide comparing the BEG's assessment of future natural gas output utilizing the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) gas price forecast to the EIA's gas production forecast and a very optimistic production outlook from the Rice University world gas model.
The BEG forecast was prepared by examining all the producing wells in each of the four major natural gas shale plays and developing a model to forecast the number of additional wells that could be drilled and the incremental reserves and associated production those wells would deliver. The resulting picture showed the BEG forecast being less than that of the EIA and substantially below the optimistic forecast of Rice University. (See Exhibit 1, next page.)
By implication, the BEG forecast suggests that either the other two projections are based on unrealistic reserve and/or well productivity assumptions, or natural gas prices will need to rise substantially higher than currently forecast in order to elicit the supply/drilling response required from the exploration and production companies if those optimistic projections are to be attained. In either case, there will be an impact on the availability and/or cost of natural gas in the United States. That could be a serious problem for our nescient LNG export business that is counting on a voluminous supply of natural gas at very low prices in order to capture the arbitrage that currently exists between high-priced LNG in Asian and European markets and low-priced natural gas in the United States.
Exhibit 1. BEG Production Outlook Questions Gas Optimism
Source: BEG
The interesting aspect of Dr. Tinker's presentation, as we duly commented on in our article, was that when it was posted on the web site of the company hosting the meeting, all the data Dr. Tinker presented regarding the BEG's recent, yet unpublished assessment of the Marcellus/Utica formation and the slide comparing the BEG forecast to the EIA's and Rice University's forecasts was absent. He had told the meeting sponsors that he needed to do a final edit of the presentation before he could provide them with the final slides for posting online. We spent considerable time investigating why the final edit cut such important information, especially since it had been shown to the breakfast audience. We also began an effort to find the missing, or similar, slides from other presentations made by Dr. Tinker. We were fairly successful in the latter effort, but we could never answer the question about why the slides were deleted from the posted presentation as we found similar ones from some of his other recent presentations. We speculated at that time that quite possibly politics had entered into the equation because the more optimistic production forecasts support the claims that the U.S. can not only satisfy growing domestic gas supply needs but also can become a leading LNG exporter. Both goals can be attained while at the same time not significantly increasing natural gas prices in the future. The implications of the BEG forecast would certainly undercut those optimistic projections.
The mystery of why the Marcellus and the overall gas market assessment slides were eliminated from the posted presentation may have been answered. The December 4th edition of the magazine Nature contains an article by freelance writer Mason Inman entitled, "The Fracking Fallacy." The article's byline says: "The United States is banking on decades of abundant natural gas to power its economic resurgence. That may be wishful thinking."
Mr. Inman focuses on the differences between the BEG and EIA gas production forecasts and how much industry activity is being based on the optimistic assumption that the U.S. has a huge, and potentially growing, volume of cheap natural gas. This view is uniformly accepted by influential energy consulting and investment firms as demonstrated by one chart that accompanied the article (Exhibit 2). What stands out from this chart is that at the time the BEG forecast calls for a peak in gas output (about 2020) essentially all the other forecasts show output continuing to grow.
Exhibit 2. BEG Has Most Conservative Outlook For Shale Gas
Source: Nature
In the article, the point is made that both the EIA and BEG studies employ similar methodologies – assess the well production and reservoir dynamics of each shale basin, estimate the number of additional wells that would be drilled and their future production and model all the wells' decline rates. However, there are some critically different assumptions that may help explain the discrepancy in outcomes. A crucial difference is the granularity underlying the analyses. The BEG study analyzes the wells and geology within one square mile blocks. In contrast, the EIA separates its shale play analysis into a county by county examination, which in some states can be up to 20 times larger in areal extent than BEG's preferred study area. Why is this difference important? One lesson learned from the short history of the shale revolution is that although shale formations blanket large areas, the quality of shale may differ significantly over the entire area. This is why we now understand that shales have "sweet spots" that yield significantly greater production than other surrounding areas. As a result, wells within the sweet spot have much greater outcomes than those located outside. If producers have followed a traditional exploration plan then they have likely drilled and produced their best acreage first, meaning that future wells will likely not to be as productive as the earlier ones in the basin.
The BEG analysis embraces this understanding, which means that as it developed its production model, future wells were assumed to not be as productive as the earlier wells despite technological improvements in drilling and completing them. This is a significant difference as the EIA assumes that all future wells drilled in a shale formation will be equally as productive as the most recent wells drilled. Another important difference between BEG and the EIA is that the latter forecasts the number of its future wells irrespective of the topography of the area. That means they will be counting on future wells being drilled under lakes and cities, while the BEG study looks at the topography and adjusts its well forecasts for the physical realities of the area. These differences in approach caused one of the co-directors of the BEG study to suggest that the EIA's model leads to a more optimistic conclusion, which might explain why the BEG study projects less gas output.
Even within the BEG group of scientists who conducted the study there are differences as pointed out by Mr. Inman. In interviewing the two leaders of the BEG study – Dr. Tinker and Dr. Ted Patzek, head of the University of Texas at Austin's department of petroleum engineering and geosystems engineering - he uncovered this difference. Dr. Tinker believes the BEG team's estimates are "conservative" and that actual production could be higher than projected. He believes, as he has said at the two conferences we have seen him present, that the industry's shale gas success is providing the nation and the planet with the time necessary to allow a transition to the next primary energy source to power the world, whatever that source may be. In contrast, as quoted in the Nature article, Dr. Patzek believes that actual production could be lower than the BEG's forecast, meaning that production will peak sooner than expected with a steep decline on the other side. When that decline begins, Dr. Patzek says, "that's when there's going to be a rude awakening for the United States."
The essence of Dr. Patzek's concern is what was behind our reaction to Dr. Tinker's slide shown during his presentation at Decision Strategies' Oilfield Breakfast Forum. Unless he believes that actual production will not only exceed the BEG forecast but also outdo that of the EIA, then this nation will experience much higher
Exhibit 3. Optimistic Gas Outlook Built On Shale Success
Source: EIA, Nature
natural gas prices than currently being forecast by the industry and consultant optimists. It is why we raised the question about the viability of the billions of dollars planned to be invested in new LNG export terminals. We are less concerned about high gas prices derailing the petrochemical industry expansion in this country because the health and growth of the U.S. economy should be able to absorb those raw material price increases for the outputs from these new plants. Remember that most of the new plants are expansions to existing facilities so companies are adding new, more efficient capacity to their already depreciated plants resulting in financial returns that may be reduced only marginally by higher gas prices. In other words, bet on growth.
2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season Was Least Active In 30 Years (Top)
The 2014 Atlantic hurricane season officially ended on November 30; most people missed it as the season was so quiet this year. In fact, it was so quiet that no newsperson was able to bolster his or her career by standing out in the wind and rain of an approaching storm as CBS television's Dan Rather, then a young unknown reporter working for the local Houston CBS affiliate KHOU-TV, did in 1961 as he reported from the Galveston weather bureau on the impending arrival of Hurricane Carla, one of the largest and strongest storms to hit the Texas Gulf Coast. That coverage, along with Mr. Rather's ability to use the television medium to educate and fascinate the American public about hurricanes, led to his hiring as a national reporter for the network that ultimately led to his rise to replace iconic Walter Cronkite as the nightly news anchor and hosting the news show Sixty Minutes.
The lack of storms was not a total surprise as virtually every forecaster anticipated the season to be a relatively inactive, based on the typical storm signals and precursors. The season ended with the fewest named storms in 17 years. On average, based on the record of 1981-2010, the Atlantic basin experiences 12 named tropical storms with 6-7 of them becoming hurricanes and two that reach major hurricane status. This year, the basin experienced only eight named storms, although six became hurricanes and two were major, but they were all in the Atlantic. Only one storm brushed the Outer Banks of North Carolina before heading out to sea.
This year marked the ninth without a major hurricane making landfall in the U.S. The last major storm to hit the U.S. coast was Hurricane Wilma in October of 2005. Hurricane Arthur, a category 2 storm when it hit the U.S., was the strongest hurricane to make landfall since Hurricane Ike devastated Galveston island and the upper Texas Gulf Coast in September 2008. Amazingly, of the last 25 major hurricanes to develop in the Atlantic basin, none have hit the United States.
Exhibit 4 shows the paths of all eight hurricanes in 2014. The purple color marks the days when the storms were major hurricanes. As shown, only two hurricanes achieved major status with storm 5, Edouard, marking only one day as a major storm, while storm 7, Gonzalo, was a major storm for three days.
Exhibit 4. Most 2014 Hurricane Action Was In Atlantic Ocean
Source: CSU
Our favorite hurricane forecasters, the scientific team of Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. William Gray, both of the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University (CSU), issued their initial forecast in early April calling for nine named storms, three hurricanes and one major hurricane. The CSU team was also looking for the measure of accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) to reach 55% of an average season, which compares with the long-term ACE average of 92%. Actual ACE reached 66% with more ACE accrued in October than during August and September combined, something that hasn't happened since 1963. We are sure the two scientists were wondering about their forecast when the first three tropical storms of the season all grew into hurricanes, albeit without causing any damage. But from that point forward, the season quieted down.
To appreciate the significance of the low ACE accumulation this year, one only needs to examine the chart in Exhibit 5 showing all the ACE records from 1950 through 2014. The black line on the chart reflects the median ACE value for that period while the red line is 2014's results. The green lines below the red one represent years with less ACE accumulation than experienced in 2014.
Exhibit 5. 2014 Hurricane Season Was Extremely Mild
Source: CSU
For those who are interested, we have presented below the record of the number of named storms, named storm days, hurricanes, hurricane days, major hurricanes and major hurricane days experienced every year since 2003, along with both the CSU team's initial forecast for 2014 and the actual results of this year. As we approach the New Year, we have one wish, which is that the upcoming 2015 season is a repeat of this year's hurricane season. While we were sorry to see the island of Bermuda suffer two hurricane strikes, we were pleased that only one relatively minor hurricane made U.S. landfall. Living in Houston and summering on the Rhode Island coast, we are highly sensitive to hurricane activity and their paths. We understand that the steering conditions for hurricanes in the Atlantic basin are now predicted to take most of the storms up the Atlantic Coast, a pattern that hasn't existed for many years. Just as the people in the New York-New Jersey metropolitan area were not prepared for the nor'easter Sandy, we worry about all those in the Carolinas and New England who have grown complacent about storm preparation given the long absence of major hurricanes. Hopefully, we will not see the devastating hurricanes we experienced growing up in New England in the 1950s.
Exhibit 6. The Record of Hurricane Activity 2003-2014
Source: CSU, PPHB
Crude Oil: $58; Next Stop $40 Or $100? (Top)
As we write this article, the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) has fallen below $60 a barrel; a level few people anticipated would be reached in the current oil price correction. The speed with which oil prices have fallen in recent weeks has shocked virtually everyone from oil company CEOs to stock market strategists; from commodity traders to the average Joe at the gas pump. The speed of the price collapse caused the dean of Wall Street investment analysts, Laszlo Birinyi, to term it a "black swan," picking up on Nassim Taleb's famous book about unforeseen financial events, or how these unanticipated events alter not only financial markets but the world in general. But as CNBC's Joe Kernen, one of the hosts of the channel's morning show Squawk Box questioned, how can it be a black swan when there actually were people who forecast the price collapse?
There is an expression on Wall Street that you don't want to try to "catch a falling knife." The implication is that the outcome will be bloody. In answering the question of whether people should be truly surprised by the collapse in oil prices, or that they just ignored the warning signs of crude's demise, we are left with trying to understand their investment thinking. Were investors merely content to ride the wave of a rising stock market, seemingly entrenched in a never-ending bull market that carried everything higher due to expectations for stellar corporate earnings growth driven by an improving global economy, especially in the U.S.? Or were investors just hoping to exit energy stocks at the first signs of oil price weakness? The problem with the latter scenario is that energy experts couldn't explain why oil prices were so high for so long given weak global demand, so why would they expect a sharp decline?
Those who questioned the level of global oil prices for most of this year were often told that markets are always focused on the future so don't be concerned about current trends. The world is expanding; there are and will be more people in the world; people's living standards are increasing around the world; existing production is declining rapidly; therefore, energy demand has to grow faster in the future than it has in the recent past. These were the arguments supporting the sustainability of high oil prices.
Don't forget that the American shale revolution ushered in the realization that the world was scratching the bottom of the proverbial barrel. Shale formations are the source rock for oil and gas reserves. The challenges in tapping these hydrocarbon resources are significant: they require mastering the techniques of drilling wells horizontally and then using massive amounts of pressure to break open the shale rock with a mixture of water, sand and chemicals, which allows the hydrocarbon molecules trapped in the shale to be released. The costs of these efforts are high, meaning oil and gas producers need lots of money. Because shale exploitation is so expensive, tapping shale formations requires that oil prices be high and remain so for the foreseeable future if the producers and their investors are going to be rewarded for their work.
In recognition of the oil demand outlook and the cost to develop this new and expensive supply source, oil prices rose to the century mark in the early 2000's, and have maintained that level other than during the financial crisis of 2008-2009. This level seemed not to dampen the oil demand growth of the western world, or in those countries where it did, the drop-off was explained away as an anomaly. The member countries of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) were happy to endorse $100 a barrel as the "new normal" for oil prices – a level supposedly sufficient to allow economies to grow while producing the incremental oil supplies to meet this demand. Why not, they were getting lots of money that allowed them to buy social peace. Everyone was happy!
For the first half of 2014, oil prices remained at the $100 a barrel mark. Unrest in the Middle East and North Africa had taken meaningful oil volumes off the market further contributing to the impression that global oil supply/demand was precariously balanced. Any further decrease in supply due to geopolitical events would surely send oil prices higher. Likewise, the acceleration of global growth, regardless of whether it came from the United States, Europe or Asia would send oil prices higher.
The problem was that every geopolitical event this year failed to move the oil price needle. By the middle of 2014, oil prices began weakening, but the decline was modest so few people were concerned. But after Labor Day, oil prices began to fall faster – driven by the fear that supply was growing much faster than markets could absorb it – primarily in the United States. The American shale revolution had driven domestic oil production to nine million barrels a day - a level not experienced since the early 1970's. Full-throated cheers from oil industry executives, industry consultants and investment analysts about the success of the shale revolution led to claims the U.S. was on the road to self-sufficiency. "Saudi America" became a popular term to describe America's energy future.
The explosion in natural gas output due to rapid growth in gas produced in association with the increasing volume of crude oil began to swamp the domestic market for liquid condensate. This natural gas liquids surplus led to efforts to export this near-oil after minimal treatment under existing federal government rules allowing for "refined" petroleum product exports. The debate about overturning the 40-year ban on exporting domestic crude oil intensified, especially as the petroleum industry began showing how the growing surplus of light oil was overwhelming the nation's refining capacity and leading to this highly-desirable crude oil being discounted in price. Politicians, concerned about this surplus contributing to a slowing of petroleum activity within their states with negative impacts on employment growth and tax revenue generation, began lobbying to overhaul the export ban. As the intensity of the export debate grew, the oil price slide accelerated.
Falling oil prices finally landed on the radar screens of investors in the past 60 days. Investors were shocked that oil prices could fall so fast and so low. Wasn't $100 a barrel the price everyone had agreed was acceptable for both consumers and producers? Hadn't oil prices been steady at that level for years, except during the financial crisis? As concern about falling oil prices grew, investors and oil analysts became convinced OPEC would act at its Thanksgiving Day meeting in Vienna to reduce supply and end the oil price fall. The odds of this outcome were questioned when Saudi Arabia – the dominant producer within OPEC, and the supplier who traditionally has played the role of market balancer – said it was cutting its oil price for American and Asian customers. Concern morphed into fear when Saudi Arabia said it was willing to live with oil prices between $70 and $80 a barrel for up to two years. The flood gates were opened and crude oil futures collapsed. The analyst game of guessing Saudi Arabia's motivation began.
With oil prices in a free-fall after the Thanksgiving Day meeting, we remember Dennis Gartman, a recognized commodity trader (he publishes a well-known commodity newsletter), commenting during a CNBC interview that oil prices were "heading sharply lower, and the decline would take the price much lower than anyone anticipates." How right he was! His comment, however, begs the question of where oil prices are heading next.
For most of the past month, the oil price narrative has focused on the oversupply of oil, primarily due to the growth in U.S. shale production. Investors and analysts have been convinced that Saudi Arabia was targeting shutting down U.S. shale producers. We have written in recent Musings about the wide range of estimates of the actual cost of shale production – with experts and industry players often suggesting widely different costs for the various oil shale basins. Is shale cheap or is it expensive? Who knows; it seems to depend on where producers are drilling in the formations and how one does the cost calculation.
In the past week, the oil price commentary on financial broadcasts has shifted from too much supply to the absence of demand. We were heartened to see this shift as it fits with our long-standing argument that the global oil market's problems result from too little demand and too much supply and are not caused by it. Although recent economic statistics suggest the U.S. economy is starting to grow faster, data from most European countries suggests their growth remains anemic and numerous countries are slipping into recessions. Latin and South America appear to be a mixed bag of moderately healthy economies and very sick ones. Despite heroic stimulation efforts by its government, Japan has fallen into recession. But the true global wildcard is China, where the latest economic data raises serious questions about its underlying growth. Concern over China's growth is tied directly to questions about the health of the country's financial system.
Problems confronting many of these countries are their demographic profile along with social policies that drain income from both citizens and companies. Almost all the countries and regions have embarked on easy money policies designed to stimulate economic growth, but the flood of newly created bank deposits is finding its way to the United States since we have ended our easy money experiment and are preparing to boost interest rates making America the only major financial market where investors can earn positive returns. With foreign money flooding into America, the value of the U.S. dollar is rising, which acts to drive oil prices down.
Exhibit 7. Consumers Big Winners In Crude Oil Price Drop
Source: Globe and Mail
We think it is interesting to examine long-term trends relating oil demand to global economic growth and oil prices. Exhibits 8 and 9 show these relationships. We have used the historical world economic growth data series published by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which allows us to use the organization's forecasts out to 2019. The point of that chart is to show that in the early years (1960's and 1970's) economic growth was generally greater than in later years (1990's and 2000's) and annual oil demand changes mirrored those levels of economic growth. The economic forecasts through 2019 assume that all the current economic problems are resolved and world economies perform at their maximum capabilities. However, global growth is only projected to be moderate, at best. This means we are likely looking at a continuation of modest global oil demand increases. This is especially true as the new IMF projection for 2015 is lower than the estimate used in the chart, which came from an earlier forecast.
Exhibit 8. Modest Global Growth Limits Oil Demand Growth
Source: BP, IMF, PPHB
The impact of the slowing global economic growth despite the recent fall in oil prices is reflected in the most recent 2015 oil demand and price forecasts of OPEC, the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The IEA reduced its demand estimate for the fourth time in the past five months. It cut 2015 demand by 230,000 barrels a day to an increase of 900,000 barrels a day. OPEC cut its demand forecast for both 2014 and 2015, with the latter being reduced by approximately 100,000 barrels a day. The EIA is now forecasting an average price for world crude oil next year of $68 a barrel; down from last month's forecast of nearly $84. The domestic oil price is now forecasted to be $63 a barrel, compared to November's projection of $78. Given the dynamics of the global economy and world oil markets, many people wonder whether even these estimates will prove to be too high.
Exhibit 9. Oil Prices Track Global Oil Demand Changes
Source: BP, EIA, PPHB
What concerns many analysts and industry executives is the inability of the petroleum industry to reign in supply growth in the face of rapidly falling oil prices. For example, the EIA is now forecasting that U.S. oil output for 2015, which was previously projected to reach 9.4 million barrels a day, will now fall 0.1 million barrels a day short of that target due to the fall in oil prices. More oil supply on the market, especially in the first half of 2015, means oil prices will be under greater downward pressure during that time. This phenomenon is shown in the EIA chart in Exhibit 10. In the chart, the blue line reflects the agency's estimate for world oil production, which for most of the year is above the agency's estimate for global consumption. That means there will be downward pressure on oil prices. The big question is whether the EIA's estimates for this year's fourth quarter production and consumption are right because they become the starting point for the agency's growth projections.
Exhibit 10. EIA Sees Supply/Demand Imbalance To End 2015
Source: EIA
While it appears that global oil demand will be weak next year, an interesting development in the U.S. that has not received much attention is the pickup in gasoline demand largely in response to an up-tick in vehicle miles traveled (VMT) as shown in Exhibit 11. In a previous Musings, we had pointed out that the 12-month moving average of VMT had begun to rise. Even with an improvement in the fuel-efficiency of new vehicles sold in this country, gasoline consumption is growing (Exhibit 12). The fact that the VMT trend started rising before gasoline prices began falling, although they were lower in the first half of 2014 than in the first half of 2013, one has to wonder whether the dour outlook previously ascribed to the attitude of Millennials toward driving might have been over-done. Or, is it possible that improvement in the U.S. labor market, as reflected in a falling unemployment rate even though most of the jobs created are part-time, has more to do with the VMT increase than a change in Millennials' attitudes? If unemployment has been the demand driver, then we should worry that the VMT rise may be temporary as there is a limit to what improvement in the unemployment rate we can expect. Mitigating that scenario is the fact that falling gasoline prices has contributed to a sharp increase in the sale of less fuel-efficient pickup trucks and sport utility vehicles, meaning overall fleet gas consumption improvement may slow or possibly even decline. In the near-term, the improvement in a "below the radar" driver of oil consumption should be viewed as a positive in the petroleum industry's outlook. This will be especially true if gasoline prices drop in sync with falling oil prices.
Exhibit 11. 12 Month Rolling Average Vehicle Miles Traveled
Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank
As oil supply continues to grow, at least through the first half of 2015, barring a significant event, the weak demand outlook suggests crude oil prices will remain under pressure for much of next year. What we know from past industry cycles and are witnessing
Exhibit 12. Gasoline Sales Are Starting To Rise
Source: EIA, PPHB
currently is that producers are reassessing their capital spending plans for 2015 in light of the low oil price. Not all companies are cutting their spending, but most are. Not all the cuts are price driven. Estimates are that the industry will likely cut about 20% of its planned record $700 billion of spending in 2014 from 2015's budgets. A cut of this magnitude will have an impact on the path of future oil supply growth. Lower oil prices will, over time, work their traditional magic on economic growth. The new factors shaping the amount of oil consumed in the future are demographics, renewables, regulations and reservoirs. Each of them will impact the trajectory of demand growth and oil prices. One cannot lose sight of the fact that the petroleum industry is cyclical and what cures periods of weak demand and low prices are low prices, while periods of high demand and high prices are stopped by extended periods of high oil prices.
There is a school of thought developing that, much like what happened in 2009, the faster oil prices fall the faster they will rebound. Those ascribing to that view believe that low prices will rapidly cut shale oil development and we will see a quick supply response in the United States. We are already seeing many offshore oil projects being delayed or cancelled. Lastly, we know that the low oil price being paid for heavy oil in Canada, around $43 a barrel early last week, is already leading to in-situ developments being postponed. So will oil prices be on the rise by the second half of 2015 as oil supply forecasts show lower output in 2016?
The future of Canada's oil industry is its heavy oil and oil sands developments as shown in Exhibit 13 (next page). The chart shows the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers' (CAPP) 2014 forecast with its 2013 outlook superimposed. The new forecast shows slightly higher output in the early years with reduced output
Exhibit 13. Canada's Oil Output Forecasts Already Falling
Source: CAPP
later due to delays in new projects. We suspect that when CAPP produces its 2015 forecast, the trajectory of future output will be down from the 2014 estimate due to low oil prices delaying new projects – both mining and in-situ ones. Importantly, the output changes between the 2013 and 2014 forecasts do not reflect lower oil prices but rather the impact of rising development and operating costs on project economics. Less work should lead to lower cost increases in future projects.
Cutbacks in oil sands developments are important for OPEC and Saudi Arabia. Since Saudi Arabia has little else to sell to the world than crude oil, it needs assurance that it will have a robust global oil market to sell into. Stopping these long-lived oil sands and heavy oil projects is important. As we have pointed out previously, Saudi Arabia disclosed to the media it was cutting its oil price shortly after the European Union ruled that Canada's oil sands bitumen was not "dirty" oil. That decision insured that Canadian oil could be sold in Western Europe, potentially restricting how large that market could be for Saudi oil. As oil sands output lasts for upwards of 40 to 50 years, the loss of Western Europe's oil market would be devastating for Saudi Arabia's long-term future.
Saudi Arabia has also been watching the performance of the shale revolution with its potential impact on global oil supply. A chart from the EIA shows average oil production per well during the first 48 months of operation on a yearly basis between 2009 and 2014. What Exhibit 14 on the next page demonstrates is that initial well production has increased significantly over the period, but the rate of well decline has also accelerated. This performance improvement helps explain the rapid growth in shale output, but it begs the question of whether the newer shale wells will actually produce more oil than earlier wells or whether the new wells will just recover the same volume sooner. The difference in the production profile has an impact on well profitability, but it also impacts overall future market supply. We will have more oil sooner but a quicker decline than if the wells were to produce like those with production profiles similar to 2010 or 2011. The new well production profile has encouraged some geologists to suggest that the success of the shale revolution merely provides us with more years of oil supply, thus giving us more time to find our next source of energy to power the world. That scenario argues that we will be back to high oil prices, but maybe not $100 a barrel, sooner than some suspect.
Exhibit 14. Are We Getting More Shale Oil Or Just Sooner?
Source: EIA
Another phenomenon beginning to generate speculation is whether the stress, both operationally and financially, results in a restructuring of the oil and gas industry. The history of low oil prices is associated with periods of major industry restructuring. The chart in Exhibit 15 tracks the timing of a number of energy deals by year and transaction value. While the chart was prepared to highlight the recently announced Halliburton (HAL-NYSE) and Baker Hughes (BHI-NYSE) deal, the history is primarily of integrated oil company (IOC) deals. Speculation has already begun about a number of the large IOCs that may be involved in deals. We won't rule them out, but then again we won't engage in speculation.
Exhibit 15. Will Oil Market Turmoil Drive Consolidation?
Source: The Wall Street Journal
The dynamics of the energy business have revved up with the dramatic decline in crude oil prices. This will bring to the forefront underlying trends already at work to change the nature of energy subsectors. We will be following and writing about these trends and how they may help alter the future of the energy business and the companies participating in it.
Questioning Environmental Claims Dangerous To Reputation (Top)
Long-time climate scientist and meteorologist Herbert E. Stevens of Rhode Island is being bashed by local supporters of the state's junior senator, Sheldon Whitehouse, over his challenge to the senator's claims about climate change. Sen. Whitehouse offered his views in a rebuttal to an op-ed authored by Tom Harris and Bob Carter who are associated with the Heartland Institute, a think-tank known to question climate science. The op-ed by the two Heartland Institute-affiliated scientists was in response to an even earlier Sen. Whitehouse diatribe about global warming and its impact on sea levels and how devastating that may be for the state of Rhode Island. Mr. Stevens didn't weigh into the battle until after Sen. Whitehouse authored his op-ed published by The Providence Journal on October 30th.
Sen. Whitehouse, who is nearing the end of his tenure as chairman of the Senate's Environment and Public Works Subcommittee on Clean Air and Nuclear Safety and who delivers a weekly speech on the Senate floor about the dangers of global warming and climate change, is incensed that The Providence Journal would carry op-eds and articles that refute the gospel of climate change. He is especially incensed that they would print op-eds authored by people associated with the Heartland Institute, an organization he calls "a polluter-funded front group most notorious for billboard advertising linking climate scientists to the Unabomber." Maybe Sen. Whitehouse should listen to the rhetoric of his buddies James Hansen, retired National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) scientist, and Professor Bill McKibben of 350.org.
In his op-ed, Sen. Whitehouse claimed there was plenty of reason to fear a rise in the sea level in Rhode Island. He says that the sea level is up 10 inches at the tide gauge at Naval Station Newport since the 1930s. He then goes on to claim, "Look at old pictures of the Hurricane of 1938, and visualize 10 extra inches of sea, times an X factor for storm surge, and tell me that increase isn't already dangerous." The problem with this point, as Dr. Stevens points out, is that any increase in sea level would be on top of the storm surge and would not be multiplied by the surge.
Sen. Whitehouse goes on to state that the rate of sea level increase in Rhode Island is "measurably accelerating…consistent with published conclusions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change." But Dr. Stevens points out that relying on IPCC conclusions is "risky business" since its predictions of sea level rise published in 1990 have been wrong on the high side by a multiple of five! He further points out, in refuting Sen. Whitehouse's claims about global warming, that the planet has not warmed in 18 years and that even the head of the IPCC has admitted to this pause and the fact that scientists cannot explain it.
One of the environmental claims is that the heat is being absorbed by the oceans, especially the deep ocean regions where it is particularly hard to measure. But Mr. Stevens points to a study published in October by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and the Jet Propulsion Laboratory that concluded that the deep oceans have not warmed measurably since 2005. Furthermore, the data collected from the ARGO network of ocean buoys around the world indicates that sea surface temperatures of the world's oceans have warmed at a rate of only .02o C (0.04o F) per decade. As he goes on to point out, consistent with the laws of thermodynamics, that degree of warming would be the limit to which the oceans can warm the atmosphere.
Mr. Stevens pointed to a paper published this fall in Ocean Science showing that satellite records indicate that the rate of rise of sea levels has greatly decelerated since 2002 and is now at a rate of less than seven inches per century. While Sen. Whitehouse referenced the sea level at Newport, other attackers of Mr. Stevens referenced the sharp rise in the sea level at Norfolk, Virginia. What we know is that at least two-thirds of that rise is due to subsidence of the surrounding land, something that is happening in numerous areas around the U.S. and the world that makes the sea level rise seem more dramatic.
Amidst all the debate about this year being the warmest, the temperature data shows on average only a tenth or two of difference compared to the average for 1998, an insignificant measurement. Importantly, the Remote Sensing Systems satellite data confirms the heating pause as well as the data from the Hadley Center for Climate Prediction and Research and the University of East Anglia's Climate Research Unit. The temperature data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) would be more comparable had the scientists there not removed the urban heat island adjustment impacting all its temperature data for the past century. As Mr. Stevens highlighted, in NOAA's "State of the Climate" issued in 2008, the agency said that "15 years or more without warming would indicate a discrepancy between models and measured reality." Therein lays the major problem for climate science. Much of it is based on the expected outcomes projected well into the future from computer models that attempt to explain how our climate works, yet because so much is not known about the climate many assumptions are made that often produce the scary results the scientists want and need in order to secure more funding for further research. Fear is a great financial motivator.
The problem with most climate models is their sensitivity to an increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. According to Mr. Stevens, a recent paper by Herman Hard in the Open Journal of Atmospheric and Climate Change concludes that a doubling of carbon dioxide would result in a change of 0.43o C (0.77o F), seven times less than the IPCC claims.
One of the points Sen. Whitehouse raised was the impact of Sandy and how it is really a precursor of future climate disasters from the combination of a warmer planet and higher sea levels. Mr. Stevens, as a well-trained meteorologist (in fact, he was one of the first on-air meteorologists at The Weather Channel), leaned on his training to seek analog storms as a guide for the future. Mr. Stevens runs his own weather forecasting service and he commented that eight days before Sandy landed in New York City he had alerted his clients to the storm's dangerous potential. He pointed to the fact that three times in the past a hurricane had turned northwest and slammed into the city. To find them he had to do his research, which uncovered the storms of 1816, 1821 and 1893 – all of which had made northwest turns before hitting the New York metropolitan region. According to Mr. Stevens, the 1821 storm would have produced a storm surge several feet higher than Sandy's, had it arrived at a full moon and high tide, as Sandy did.
Mr. Stevens, to his credit, acknowledged that the criticism of the Heartland Institute's billboard ad was appropriate. On the other hand, he feels that the climate change proponents who describe those questioning the climate change science as "deniers" are only thinly masking their desire to brand them as similar to those disgraced people who deny the existence of the Holocaust. Civility in the debate over climate change science would be welcome. However, climate change has become more of a religion than a science among its most passionate supporters. Therefore, those supporters have no problem relying on inquisition-type tactics to challenge those on the other side of the issue.
Renewables Battle For Opportunities And NE Is Ground Zero (Top)
A new battle is brewing in New York over which renewable energy source should be favored for new electricity power projects. Newsday, a Long Island newspaper, recently broke a story about the competition between solar and wind electricity projects to supply power to the region. The article focused on how much a now-favored offshore wind project has relied on lobbyists and political connections to move from the least- to the most-favored new electricity supply project being considered.
Deepwater Wind, an offshore wind developer that is majority-owned and funded by the D.E. Shaw Group, a $34 billion New York hedge fund with several of its managers sitting on the wind-farm company's board of advisers, has proposed a $1.5 billion wind farm to be located 30 miles east of Montauk on the tip of Long Island. Deepwater ONE would be a 150-200 wind turbine farm located on two ocean parcels consisting of 256 square miles of federal offshore acreage leased by Deepwater Wind in the federal lease sale in July 2013. Deepwater Wind anticipates this wind farm would, over time, supply power to multiple New York and New England energy projects. The wind project's distance from the tip of Long Island puts it "over the horizon" so it would not be visible from any point on the island.
Exhibit 16. Site Of Deepwater Wind's Super Wind Farm
Source: Deepwater Wind
According to Newsday, the staff of the Long Island Power Authority (LIPA) had been leaning against the proposed 35-turbine wind farm due to its cost. On November 17th, Deepwater Wind was notified by LIPA that is was one of the finalists for the project and that it had until December 5th to submit a final proposal.
The head of one of the non-finalists, Bill Moore, who is president of Hudson Energy, which worked with another firm to propose a 103-megawatt solar array on the island, commented, "certainly it's disturbing as a bidder into the LIPA process to see the lowest-cost bids set aside for the highest cost bid for reasons that are unclear." He went on to say, "offshore wind is still 50 percent more expensive on a levelized cost basis" than the cheapest solar project offered to LIPA. Mr. Moore is a former chief executive officer of Deepwater Wind, so clearly he is someone with deep knowledge of both wind and solar technologies and the economics of renewable energy projects.
The politics and impact of the lobbying effort cannot be underestimated. Deepwater Wind has spent $120,000 a year on lobbyists to advocate for the project with legislators in Albany, New York, capitol of the state. The company also has many former government officials on its payroll and its founder has been a major donor to the election campaigns of New York Governor Andrew Cuomo and President Barack Obama. He also has ties to many local politicians. In November, Suffolk County (NY) Executive Steve Bellone, who had opposed a LIPA-endorsed wind farm project while he served as the supervisor [mayor] of Babylon, N.Y., appeared at a press conference with labor officials to promote the estimated 300 construction jobs that would be created by the Deepwater Wind project.
Exhibit 17. Rally In Support Of LI Offshore Wind
Source: Long Island Press
On October 30th, a Rally for Renewables was held outside the LIPA offices. Gordian Raacke of Renewable Energy Long Island spoke in favor of the Deepwater Wind project. During the event, his organization turned over to LIPA a petition with 20,000 signatures supporting the wind project. A News12 Long Island television station poll found that Long Islanders favored the Deepwater Wind project by 83% to 17%.
Under the Deepwater Wind proposal, LIPA is required to purchase all the power the wind farm would produce at a first-year cost of just over 18-cents per kilowatt-hour (kWh), which would be 6.4-cents/kWh below the price negotiated for the company's 5-turbine wind farm offshore Block Island, Rhode Island. More importantly, the first-year power price would escalate over the 20-year life of the contract. If we assume that Deepwater Wind seeks the same escalation structure as in its Rhode Island contract, the LIPA price would increase by 3.5% per year for the term of the contract. At the time Deepwater Wind negotiated its power purchase agreement (PPA) with National Grid (NGG-NYSE) in Rhode Island, the cost of power in that state was 14.5-cents/kWh. Since then, natural gas, which powers close to 90% of the power supplied to Rhode Island customers has declined in priced Estimates are that the Deepwater Wind/LIPA contract, assuming it is selected, would add, at a minimum, $4 per month to the electricity price of a typical residential customer.
While it looks like offshore wind may overwhelm solar for renewable energy on Long Island, the battle between the two renewables continues throughout New England. According to the New England Independent System Operator (ISO-NE), the region produced nearly 2%, or approximately 1,800 gigawatt-hours, of its energy, from wind capacity in 2013. There is currently approximately 720 megawatts (MW) of installed capacity with Maine accounting for 53%. Maine also has 84% of the region's 3,645 MW of proposed wind capacity.
A challenge for wind farms in Maine is the high costs associated with the transmission lines to bring the power to other New England states. There is also the difficulty in siting large wind farms and transmission projects across multiple jurisdictions, meaning that offshore wind projects that are closer to the power needs of customers become more attractive, despite their higher cost. After 15 years of planning and permitting, the Massachusetts Cape Wind project in Nantucket Sound may be getting close to moving forward to construction. Likewise, the 5-turbine project offshore Block Island, Rhode Island has received all its permits and expects to begin construction during 2015, making it potentially the first U.S. offshore wind farm to become reality. Add to those two projects, the Deepwater ONE offshore wind farm that could supply meet New York and New England renewable power needs, and the area offshore Massachusetts and Rhode Island could become an active wind energy center.
Exhibit 18. The Growing New England Renewable Market
Source: Enerknol Research
As the New England region may be exhausting its potential onshore wind farm locations, the states are hoping to meet some of their mandatory renewable portfolio standards (RPS), which vary from a low of 10% by 2017 for Maine to a high of 27% by 2020 for Connecticut, with solar power. Most of the state RPS requirements are between the mid-teens to low 20's percent for the other four states by no later than 2025. At the present time, Massachusetts leads the region with nearly 700 MW of installed solar capacity and is poised to see that grow with the recently-enacted RPS solar carve-out of 1,600 MW by 2020. If Massachusetts meets its requirement and the other New England states meet ISO-NE projections, the region could exceed 3,000 MW of installed solar photovoltaic capacity by 2023, nearly five times the amount currently installed in California.
At the present time, the wind and solar project economics rely on the renewable energy certificate (REC) markets and federal investment tax credits (ITC) and production tax credits (PTC). State RPS compliance is mostly completed through REC purchases. One REC equates to one megawatt-hour of produced renewable energy from RPS-qualified sources and represents the environmental attributes of the produced electricity, separate from the physical electricity. RECs are tradable and provide a second revenue stream for renewable energy project owners and thus help support the development of these projects. RECs may become more important for renewable energy developers if the federal ITC and PTC are not extended. Based on the latest information we have learned, it looks like the PTC will be extended through 2015, and we expect the ITC for renewable projects will also be extended.
As we watch the New England, and now Long Island, regions move aggressively forward with wind, offshore wind and solar energy projects at substantially higher costs for power customers, the state utilities are moving to build more gas-fired power plants both to supply base-load power as aging coal- and nuclear-fired plants are shuttered and to provide back-up power for when renewable power is not available. The battles over expanding natural gas pipelines to bring more supply into New England will make it tougher for utilities to meet the region's future power needs. As a result, electricity customers will be facing escalating power bills and potential power brownouts and blackouts. That will further challenge the health of the economies of the New England states. The huge electricity rate increases just enacted for the upcoming winter months in Massachusetts and Rhode Island are being challenged by politicians and customers, but the increases are only the tip of the financial iceberg for residents going forward.
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Very well presented 2 bedroom/1 bathroom apartment with swimming pool. Comprising of an entrance hall leading into the lounge and good size terrace. The kitchen has an open archway into the lounge. 2 average sized bedrooms with one having a rear terrace overlooking pool area. This property is in exceptional condition having previously been sold to its present owners 23 yrs ago by ourselves. Sold fully furnished and equipped as a walk in package.
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subset: commoncrawl


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First Platoon Finished!
It's been a while!
Well, that's a milestone - first unit finished! The gliders I'm going to do in a batch of airbrush maddness.
Taking my good friend (and amazing painter) Paul 'Tuffskull' Townsends (www.hobbybrush.com) advice, I covered the whole model and base with flat brown. This gives a great shading layer, especially for the skin.
Although the splinter camo was issued to the Fallschirmjager before the invasion of Crete, I decided to do a mix of grey/green and Splinter issued kit, to cover the mix, so these can be used as either early or mid war lists.
The 'Bridge by Bridge' book has a great FJ painting guide in the book, with three colour (shade, Main and highlight) Vallejo colours. The basing foliage is a mix of Army painter Field grass with mininatur 726-33 S 'Tufts with blossoms early fall'.
Whilst painting these guys, I also managed to get objective 1 painted.
Not long to go now, but I'm working through the next platoon!


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How to be ready When An Appointment Is Made.
Once your home is listed with Byrd Realty, agents from many real estate firms will want to show your home. So to be ready When An Appointment Is Made consider these tips to help insure a quicker sale and a better first offer.
If at all possible, When An Appointment Is Made do everything in your power to allow access to any agent who calls to show your home, and at the time that is most convenient for the buyer. The most motivated home buyers come in from out of town and typically only have a small window of time to find a home. So working within their schedule will be beneficial to you. Making it difficult for them to see your home may cause them to bypass your home altogether. If you are not frequently available, it is suggested that you allow a lockbox to be installed on your door. Today's modern lockbox systems are safer than ever before and you will increase your odds for a sale by allowing more qualified buyers to easily see your home. You do not want to miss even one showing…each one could be the one! It is well know in real estate marketing and sales that the best way to get top dollar for any home has always been by exposing it and showing it to the most number of qualified buyers as possible.
Tip: Often buyer agents assume that a seller who restricts showing times, is less motivated and may be more difficult to negotiate with. Consequently the showing agent may not be as eager to either show or sell a home of what they may feel is a "difficult seller."
Before and prior to a showing:
- When an appointment is made open all drapes and window blinds in the daylight hours. Let the light in so the home does not show "dark."
- Remove extra furniture. The idea is to create as much open floor space as possible. The home will feel much larger.
- Remove the center leaf from any table. Again the idea is to create space.
- Do not block natural pathways through the home with furniture, plants of other decorations. Disrupting floor plan flow patterns will make a home feel small.
- The kitchen & bathroom should shine and sparkle. Remove rarely used items from the tops of all counters. Create as much open work space as possible so the buyer will feel like the kitchen or bath has plenty of counter space.
- When an appointment is made circulate fresh air by opening windows one half hour before a showing. Make sure all unpleasant odors are gone.
- Create an inviting feeling by opening all the doors between rooms. A homes flow pattern and feel is one of the most important aspects of selling a home today.
- Fresh flowers always make a great first impression adding color and life to any room.
- When an appointment is made, if it is convenient, baking cookies or bread will add to the ambiance and make the buyers feel right at home.
- When an appointment is made, turn on every light and replace bulbs with high wattage bulbs where needed. We want the home to be a bright as possible.
- Pets can be problematic when a home is shown. Some pet owners find it hard to believe but not everyone may share their love of animals and some people may actually allergic to them. If at all possible you should create an environment where your pets do not come in contact with the home buyers and showing agent. Pets can be very distracting to someone attempting to discover the features and feel of your home. And…most importantly…eliminate all pet odors.
- Think safety first when it comes to your valuables. All jewelry, small valuables, any important collectables, guns or other weapons should be stored in a locked closet or at the bank in a safety deposit box.
- If you have fixtures or important items that you do not wish to convey with the home you may want to replace them prior to putting your home on the market or at the very least tag them appropriately with "to be replaced with…" or "does not convey" signs.
- Bathrooms should be spotless and smell fresh, with towels folded, toilet clean and lid down. Beds should be neatly made, room organized & clothes picked up and put away.
- When you leave the house, plan to leave it as if you know it is going to be shown. You never know when the right person is going to look at it!
Keep in mind when your home is on the market you are trying to "sell it"! When An Appointment Is Made you are now"the doggy in the window" and you want someone to take you home!


text: I would like to thank dml2912 on the Dell Community forums. I don't know who you are, but your post solved a problem for me on my Dell D830 laptop that has nagged me since I got it over a year ago – stuttering audio. It was a simple fix, but one that a dozen calls to Dell couldn't solve.


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We are called into compassionate community by the Holy Spirit through the confession of the Gospel of Jesus Christ to publicly confess the faith of the Triune God in, under, and with our daily callings in the community of God's world.
The building renovation fund has a goal of $400,000. You can make a donation here and get the latest updates by clicking the button below.Latest Renovation Fund Numbers
Normal Sunday worship times are 8:20 a.m. and 10:30 a.m. with Wednesday evening worship at 6:20 p.m. Check the calendar for exceptions.
The 2017-2018 Adult Forum schedule is out. The first session is September 17th. Join us most Sundays between services (9:30 a.m.) in the Fellowship Hall.
If your child/ren would like to participate in any activities, please fill out the registration form and return it to the church office or call the church office.
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Good quality
Reviewed By Kevin J (Cleveland, OH) Reviewed for a 2013 Toyota Corolla —6/13/2017 8:39 PM
Nice sound not too quiet not too loud. I love it
Reviewed By Michael M (Alvin, TX) Reviewed for a 2001 Toyota Corolla —2/5/2012 2:55 PM
I purchased the Injen Muffler to install in my toyota corolla S. It cost very litte to get installed in place of the OEM muffler at our local shop. It gave the deep smooth sound I wanted. Could have spent half the amount on another muffler, but probably would not have worked out as well or last as long.


text: Toronto police are seeking a downtown mail thief who recently struck at an apartment building near Dundas Street West and University Avenue. He allegedly stole mail belonging to residents in the building, and then fled the scene. The man has brown hair that is longer on top of his head and shorter on the sides. He is clean shaven. At the time, he was wearing a black jacket over a tan jacket with a hood, grey pants with black patches on the knees, and black shoes.


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450 S Maple Rd, Ann Arbor, MI 48103Request info Add to list
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Robert O. A.
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Building Details:
450 S Maple Rd is an office property for lease in Ann Arbor, MI.
This is a corporate sales office space with many private offices, conference rooms, and professional work areas. The layout provides for the ability to have different types of work areas and still allow natural light to access the entire office. In addition to the layout, the quality of the work areas is superb with high quality hardwood finishes. There is parking on site for employees, clients, and customers.
Lease Cost: The rent for this suite is $ 23.00 per square foot per year payable monthly and includes property taxes, building insurance, maintenance and management. The only additional costs would be for gas and electric that will be billed to the Lessee by the Lessor.
The monthly rent for leasing this 6,800 square feet is estimated to be $ 13,000 per month plus utilities. Office current configuration provides for 26 offices plus conference rooms.
There are 2 conference rooms
Kitchen Area: There is a small kitchen area.
Restrooms: There are 2 restrooms.
Parking: There is ample parking.
Link to Photos and Floor Plan:
Request Property Information
Please describe your commercial real estate requirements. We'll create a list of matching properties that meet your criteria.
- Kelly Higgs, agent and Rofo Pro


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Surroundings and what to do: Appartamenti in Agriturismo near Isernia in Molise, Agnone
Surroundings and what to do
Surroundings: the farm is surrounded by the bright green hills of the Molise region, in an area rich in history and tradition. Masseria Santa Lucia is only 30 minutes away from both the beaches of the Adriatic coast and some of the highest and most spectacular mountains of central Italy (Majella National Park, Abruzzo, Lazio and Molise National Park).
Nature enthusiasts will be able to ride horses, mountain bikes or go for a hike along the "Tratturi" (ancient routes used by shepherds to drive their flocks from Puglia to Abruzzo, passing through Molise) or also in the WWF Natural Oases (Colle Meluccio and Colle di Mezzo).
Perched high at the top of the hill, Agnone dominates the landscape around Masseria Santa Lucia. Agnone, City of Art, was awarded by the Orange Flag of the Italian Touring Club (certification towards the environment and culture). In the historical downtown you will be admiring the dazzling streets with marble portals and balconies with magnificent railings, outstanding churches that spell out history and craftsmanship. Least but not last, the ancient Marinellis' Bell Foundry, the real symbol of the town.
What to do: - Horses riding: in the surrounding area. - Tennis and football: courts and pitches are available in Agnone and Poggio Sannita. - Mountain bike: available for our guests. - Farm products: you can take part of sightseeing in the farm tasteful fruit and vegetables, wine, olive oil and jams. - Swimming pool: available for our guests. - Barbecue: available for our guests. - Tennis table: available for our guests. - Other services: hospital, banks, bus links, shops, pubs, hair dresser, etc in Agnone.
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text: The Skinner Family grows their wines at the highest elevation in California that still allows for the full expression of their varietals. This stylish Rhône-style blend of mostly Syrah with a dash of Viognier is big, at 15.5% alcohol–it can be a difficult wine to bear without food. Decant this wine for some time and use the biggest glasses you can. Because of its size, it needs all the room to spread out and soften up, plus it allows for some of the alcohol to come off of the nose. Along with that advice, this wine deserves big food: red meat, rich pastas, aromatic cheeses, chocolate. Its inky black and blue fruit components are complemented by black licorice and a certain iron minerality, reminescent of animal and leather. It has the memory of a gently hand-rolled cigar infused with vanilla and clove. Delicious and elegant.


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10 signs you are getting older
One minute you're drinking two bottles of JP Chenet and bouncing out of bed the next morning and then one year later, a glass of pinot grigio at a family barbecue is enough to tie you to the toilet the next day.
Ah, getting older.
1. Drinking equals dying
Everything hurts.
2. Sleep is the most important thing
A nightclub? Zzz…
3. You're so fat
When you were sixteen you survived on nothing but ham rolls and Hunky Dories and there was never a pick on you. Now you eat salad for lunch and occasionally use low fat milk and you're pretty sure nothing is changing.
4. D.M.R. (Deep Meaningful Relationships)
Single life is great. Then suddenly you're 23 and the only relationship you've ever had has been with your fridge. Crap.
5. Weddings. Why? WHY?
One of your friends has just messaged you to inform you that another girl in your year has just got engaged. Seriously?!
6. Baby talk
Please stop. Cats, not babies. Cats.
7. Avoiding awkward questions
Those family reunions where all you hear is "hows the love life?" or "any talent?" Gah!
8. Home sweet home
You find yourself feeling a sense of pride in an organised wardrobe and a gleaming bath. It's the little things.
9. Dressed to impress
You finally realise what suits you and what doesn't. Short skirts with your arse hanging out? No.
10. Parental guidance
You are officially old when you realise your parents were right all along. Damn it!
via our content partner CT


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Clayton State University add drop deadline
Think about what career is best suited for you, and where you want to study. Request more information now.
Think about what career is best suited for you, and where you want to study. Request more information now.
Think about what career is best suited for you, and where you want to study. Request more information now.
Find information about Clayton State University add drop deadline, and registering for elective discussion sections and seminars. As a student, your first stop should be the registrar's office, where you can pick up a free copy of both the academic calendar and course catalog, in order to find available credit classes that you may be interested in taking. It may surprise you that it's possible to enroll for a full-time course load, without having any 8am classes at all. Finally, check with the admissions office for assistance with prerequisites, tuition payment deadlines, and Clayton State University class registration information. Please use the form above to request admissions info for Clayton State University.
To keep your GPA as high as possible, study the schedule of classes carefully, and note the add/drop deadlines, as well as the requirements for changing a grade. If you get an incomplete, or worse a low grade, you can still retake the class, as some schools allow you to average the two grades on your final transcript. Challenge yourself by taking some courses outside your major to fulfill breadth requirements.
By purchasing lecture notes from a reputable source such as the student union, you can save time by not taking notes in class, and concentrate on paying better attention. You also can audit courses that you're interested in, but would prefer to skip exams and just listen in. Beyond degree requirements such as Clayton State University class registration, you may consider Northwestern Michigan College ACT scores for complementary electives to your primary course of study.
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November 8 came and went and it's the morning after, and many of us seem to be in the grips of a surreal nightmare from which there is no waking.
Donald Trump is the new president-elect of America, and the world is undergoing shock waves and trying to understand what really happened.
Here from around the web are some of the most detailed stories about the many individual scenarios that made this possible, and the way ahead in a Trumpian America.
From the New York Times:
'Strange New Land': America in a Time of Trump
"A Trump presidency will plunge the United States into an era of unknowns that has little parallel in the nation's 240-year history.
While Donald J. Trump has been vague about his position on many issues, he has been explicit about several that would fundamentally change America's direction."
Donald Trump's Victory Is Met With Shock Across a Wide Political Divide
"The American political establishment reeled on Wednesday as leaders in both parties began coming to grips with four years of President Donald J. Trump in the White House, a once-unimaginable scenario that has now plunged the United States and its allies and adversaries into a period of deep uncertainty about the policies and impact of his administration.
Democrats, who will be out of power in both the White House and Congress for the first time since 2006, were particularly crestfallen that Hillary Clinton had a slender lead in the popular vote but lost in the Electoral College, a fate similar to Al Gore's in 2000."
From Salon:
"Not my president!" President-elect Donald Trump inspires walkouts, protests in major cities
"Donald Trump's election Tuesday night is inspiring a wave of protests around the country from Americans — the majority of whom voted for Hillary Clinton — angry about the future of the country.
Flames lit up the night sky in California cities Wednesday as thousands of protesters burned a giant papier-mache Trump head in Los Angeles and started fires in Oakland intersections.
A piñata of Donald Trump's face being burnt at the LA City Hall protest 💀 pic.twitter.com/bEb7EYyCMy
— unsatisfied ant 🐜 (@MrDelGrant) November 10, 2016


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Super-Rare Prototype Porsche 959 To Be Auctioned By Barrett-Jackson
January 10, 2013 by Admin
Filed under Latest News
One of the original factory cars used by engineers to develop the 1980s supercar to be auctioned off
Barrett-Jackson is offering one of the rarest and most desirable of all road-going Porsches at its Scottsdale auction, a factory prototype for the groundbreaking 959 super sports car (Lot #5011). Imagine owning one of the few remaining prototype 959s? This car is one of two running prototypes and one of only four survivors.
In October of 1983, Porsche A.G. announced they would produce 200 Street Version 959s and would sell them to the lucky 200 new owners who are on the Porsche's VIP list. For three years Porsche engineers studied and worked on the 959s prototypes and designs.
The street version of the 959 debuted at the 1985 Frankfurt Motor Show as a 1986 model, these were pre-production model carrying the Porsche 930 Turbo chassis numbers. In 1985, Helmut Bott, head of the 959 development, had taken 29 of 1986 model 930 Turbo chassis from the Porsche factory to turn them into the 959 pre-production prototypes and these were called Code F, N and V. These 29 prototypes were the latest prototypes and they were used for various final tests, media coverage, crush tests and road tests.
This car is one of the 7 V-series prototypes and it was used as the chassis, ABS development car which was seen at the famous high speed testing facilities like Nardo, Italy and Minerva, France. Sadly most of the 29 prototype 959s were destroyed and scrapped by the Porsche factory after the 959 project had ended, this particular prototype became one of only four surviving and also one of only two running prototypes in existence still wearing its original pre-production Dunlops with its original prototype light weight wheels. All
production 959s were delivered with Bridgestone RE71s with production type wheels.
We will have to wait and see if this Prototype 959 continues the trend of record breaking auction prices for vintage Porsche vehicles. Our guess is that it will, and will start 2013 off with another unbelieveable price paid. The 42nd annual Barrett-Jackson Scottsdale auction takes place Jan 13-20 at WestWorld, with 39 hours of live coverage on SPEED. For more information about the January event, see Barrett-Jackson.com.
Source/Photos: Barrett-Jackson


text: Kareena Kapoor and Saif Ali Khan are reported to tie the knot in February 2012. Though neither Kareena or Saif has made a public statement about their wedding, going by the reports, it seems that the couple will take the wedding vows soon. #13;If sources are to be believed, veteran designer Ritu Kumar has already begun designing Kareenas dress for D-day. #13;According to Mumbai Mirror, Saif Ali Khan has reportedly asked for a selection of diamond rings from a jeweller based out of Mumbai. He liked the princess cut diamonds apart from few other shapes. The jewellers in turn have sent the actor various rings of different cuts and carats. #13;In a recent interview, Kareena admitted that she wanted to marry Saif, the love of her life. She had said, ldquo;Of course, I want to marry Saif. Doesnt every woman want to take her relationship to the next level? Saif and I are definitely going to marry. #13;


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Altriset Termiticide
Buy Now
Gaston from Ga writes,
Drilling driveway, patio, and front porch for Altriset
I have a garage attached to the house. I have to drill in the driveway around the house I believe. How can I know I will not hit water or sewage. I also have to drill front porch, back patio. My slab is 4 in in back and 8 in front of the house.
Normally, the water and sewage lines are a lot lower than than 18in. because they are laid in the ground before the land is graded to build on. If you are still unsure, we recommend contacting your city or county for the blue prints.
Answer last updated on: 04/23/2013
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At The Motley Fool, we poke plenty of fun at Wall Street analysts and their endless cycle of upgrades, downgrades, and "initiating coverage at neutral." Today, we'll show you whether those bigwigs actually know what they're talking about. To help, we've enlisted Motley Fool CAPS to track the long-term performance of Wall Street's best and worst.
Jumpin' Jack Flash (it's all gas, gas, gas)
With natural gas prices near record lows, and far off from their recent highs of 2008, you wouldn't expect to see many smiles on gas investors' faces. But they sure are grinning today.
The reason, as we're about to discuss, is a pair of upgrades for the industry. This morning, news that No. 2 American gas producer Chesapeake Energy
Meanwhile, just downstream from Chesapeake on the nat-gas supply chain, Clean Energy Fuels
Curb your enthusiasm
So, good news all around, right? Well, yes, actually. I have to say that, given how Chesapeake Energy has dismissed worries about its debt problems in the past, seeing management actually take concrete steps to shore up its balance sheet does warm the cockles of my heart just a bit. Likewise, getting a vote of support from Caterpillar, and presumably a paycheck as well, is good news for Westport, and perhaps for Clean Energy as well.
But let's not break out the Champagne bottles just yet, Fools. There are still pretty significant issues with these stocks. Both Clean Energy and Westport, for example, remain both GAAP-unprofitable and free cash flow negative. On the plus side, Westport managed to eke out a (small) operating cash flow balance in Q4 of last year, but then it plunged right back into the red in Q1 of this year. Meanwhile, Clean Energy hasn't seen positive operating cash flow in more than a year.
I don't mean to sound all doom and gloom. Clean Energy isn't too deeply in hock considering the scale of the infrastructure project it's embarked upon, and Westport even has a bit of cash left in its bank account. But time is running out -- if these firms don't figure out how to make a buck off their businesses, and soon, it could be curtains for both.
As for Chesapeake, the last time this company booked a positive free cash flow year, there was still a Republican in the White House ... with two years left in office. While it's true that record-low nat-gas prices haven't done Chesapeake any favors lately, the plain fact of the matter is that Chesapeake has been burning cash for about as long as anyone can remember, regardless of how much it cost. Yes, $4 billion in asset sales can make a debt in Chessie's debt load. But there will be another $9 billion in debt to contend with, even after this job is done.
Foolish takeaway
There's no doubt that natural gas has a future in American energy policy. Here at the Fool, however, as natural gas prices are unusually low, we've got several stock ideas that we think will do well if oil goes back over $100 a barrel. (Click through and we'll tell you all about them). But if cheap natural gas turns out to be the future, then "story stocks" like Westport, Clean Energy, and Chesapeake certainly have roles to play. Just make sure that you don't get so sucked into the "story," and so intent on trying to get in on the ground floor, that you forget to keep an eye on the financials.
When the time is right to buy, the numbers will tell you -- plain as day.
Fool contributor Rich Smith does not own shares of, or short, any company named above. You can find him on CAPS, publicly pontificating under the handle TMFDitty, where he's currently ranked No. 325 out of more than 180,000 members. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The Motley Fool owns shares of Chesapeake Energy and Westport Innovations. Motley Fool newsletter services have recommended buying shares of Clean Energy Fuels, Westport Innovations, and Chesapeake Energy.
We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.
More from The Motley Fool
Why Clean Energy Fuels Corp's Shares Plunged 29% in 2017
The natural gas revolution may be over before it ever got started.
Have Investors Been Overlooking Clean Energy Fuels Corp.?
All the hype around electric cars (and now heavy trucks) could have the market missing out on the natural gas seller's transformation and growth prospects.
The Simple Reason Why I Won't Buy Clean Energy Fuels Corp. Stock
The days of natural gas as a potential transportation fuel may be over.


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Sound Oracle Speaks at Ableton Loop Summit for Music Makers
On Sunday, November 6, at 17:30 – 18:45 at Hall 2, Sound Oracle will be discussing "Don't Be A Music Snob" and "Studio Session with Sound Oracle" at the "Loop Summit for Music Makers by Ableton" in Funkhaus Berlin. Sound Oracle is best known as the producer and chief sound designer for multi-platinum producer Timbaland. Sound Oracle's work has appeared in productions for the likes of Beyoncé, Jay-Z, Justin Timberlake, Chris Brown and Christina Aguilera.
Don't be a Music Snob is a discussion about listening and learning from different genres. This will include a selection of Loop artists and sound engineers. They will share some of their favorite bits of insights. Share different perspectives on how to listen led by a panel of music makers. They will dissect examples of great songwriting. Give insights on sound design. Explain musical theory, and top-notch audio engineering in some of the most unexpected places.The Studio Session is an opportunity to get a close-up insight. Into the production processes and creative thinking of Sound Oracle. This session will be a free-form session allowing Sound Oracle to show his music. Deconstruct his processes. And walk you through some of the creative steps. That he takes in making his music.
The Loop by Ableton is a three-day summit for Music Makers.
That aims to exchange ideas about cutting edge music, technology, and creative practices. This summit is a collective effort of how making music is today, and what its future holds. The most thrilling advances in music were collaborative collections of many talents.This summit will hold discussions, performances, presentations, studio sessions, and interactive workshops. Get inspired by watching how other artists work and give insights. Then, you get to meet music creators from all over the world.
Visit here: http://soundoracle.net/blogs/soundoracle-net-blog/sound-oracle-speaks-at-ableton-loop-summit-for-music-makers


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The first law of holes is to know when to stop digging. We therefore urge Gov. Terry McAuliffe to reject The Post editorial board's Medicaid expansion shovel.
In the April 25 editorial "Virginia's game of chicken," The Post suggested that McAuliffe start "describing to Virginians the paralysis and hardships that are likely to befall the state if Republicans continue to refuse any semblance of compromise and the government shuts down." With all due respect, the strategy of digging up fears of a state-government shutdown has not worked and will not work, as indicated by recent polling on Medicaid expansion and the state budget from Christopher Newport University.
Even Wes Craven couldn't make this scare tactic work.
As a legal matter, the current state budget expires July 1. Without new spending authority, there would be no legal authority to expend state money.
As a governing matter, McAuliffe possesses emergency powers to keep key state programs operating, although the mechanics are neither state-worker nor vendor friendly.
But more important, on the common-sense level, the story line urged by The Post would get a big yawn from Alfred Hitchcock. This isn't "Psycho." Rather, it's becoming bizzaro.
Right now, Virginians know they face, at best, a pseudo crisis, fanned by the political elite for partisan reasons.
As we have written several times, the Medicaid expansion debate remains far too politically obvious to convince the public the sky is falling. The reality is that nearly all Republicans and most swing voters in the state don't believe that failing to expand Medicaid is cruel to the poor, much less a top priority. Why?
In our view, it is because the Democrats have pursued a strategy of demonizing GOP politicians. We have urged them to focus instead on the real issue: some 400,000 Virginians without health insurance whose health-care bills end up being paid by Virginia taxpayers. Is there a fiscally responsible way to provide them with health care that also reduces the burden on taxpayers?
We believe there is. But the current debate won't get us there. The governor has felt more comfortable discussing Medicaid as a jobs-and-economy issue. This is logical given his having run for office on his business background. But if you check the campaign polls, independents never gave him superior grades on economic issues. In fact, the governor ran on his "I'm the jobs guy" mantra in the 2009 Democratic primary and was beaten by Sen. Creigh Deeds.
It's time for some tough love: The governor doesn't have the credibility to sell Medicaid expansion as a jobs or economic growth program. This is a health-care issue, an area where he has never been seen as major policy wonk. Talking about jobs, or a government shutdown, only avoids facing the true issue.
Republicans have the upper hand — unless they lose their nerve.
Indeed, framing the debate as a "game of chicken" actually would hurt the governor's cause.
Bottom line: The Medicaid debate is about the people who need care. Republicans know they can't simply pretend these Virginians don't exist. But as long as Democrats try the fear strategy, then the winning approach — an appeal to compassion and fiscal responsibility — once again never gets heard by the voters.
We know Virginians: They aren't going to be bullied by anyone. But they are tired of being hung in effigy as uncaring, too.
They will do the right thing. But not for the wrong reason.
Norman Leahy is an editor of the conservative Web site BearingDrift.com and producer of the political radio show "The Score." Paul Goldman is a former chairman of the Democratic Party of Virginia. They are blogging together on All Opinions Are Local during Virginia's 2014 General Assembly session.


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News Peach-Pit Ends Zombie-Loan Supernatural Manga in Japan
posted on 2011-02-28 09:35 EST
13th & last volume to ship in Japan this spring
The manga artist duo Peach-Pit ended their Zombie-Loan manga in the March issue of Square Enix's G Fantasy magazine on February 18. The story revolves around three high school students — a girl who can see rings around the necks of those who are about to die, and two boys in her class who have defied death — who hunt zombies for the "Zombie Loan" office.
The 13th and final book volume of the manga will ship in Japan "in April or May." To mark the ending of the manga, the current G Fantasy issue bundled a memorial poster. Yen Press will publish the 11th volume of the manga in North America in June. The manga inspired a television anime series in 2007.
Thanks to Dustin for the news tip.
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This Week in Anime - The Fantastic Final Days of Girls' Last Tour
Now that it's no longer behind a double-paywall, there's no better time to catch up on this post-apocalyptic adventure while settling in for the winter. We share our favorite things about this surprisingly impactful series. ― Now that Girls' Last Tour is no longer behind a double-paywall, there's no better time to catch up on all the post-apocalyptic adventure while settling in for the winter. This w...
The Winter 2018 Anime Preview Guide
The Winter 2018 anime season has begun, and we're reviewing ALL of this season's new anime as they air!
Available Now: Winter 2018 Short Anime - Beatless - Touken Ranbu Hanamaru 2 - DARLING in the FRANXX - HAKYU HOSHIN ENGI - Hakata Tonkotsu Ramens - Hakumei and Mikochi - and MUCH more! ― Welcome to Anime News Network's Winter 2018 Preview Guide! Here's how it goes: our team of critics write up thei...
Available Now: Winter 2018 Short Anime - Beatless - Touken Ranbu Hanamaru 2 - DARLING in the FRANXX - HAKYU HOSHIN ENGI - Hakata Tonkotsu Ramens - Hakumei and Mikochi - and MUCH more! ― Welcome to Anime News Network's Winter 2018 Preview Guide! Here's how it goes: our team of critics write up thei...
Orange Limited Edition BD/DVD
This teen melodrama takes a surprisingly mature look at clinical depression and how it affects the lives of loved ones. Theron Martin explores the series' highs and lows. ― How do you save a person who's wallowing in depression but won't let anyone know about it, especially without making it obvious that you're trying to do so? That question lies at the heart of this adaptation of Ichigo Takano's man...
Vice & Luna - Invasion of the Old-Timers, Part I
just for fun
It's anime night, and Luna has a surprise guest and some classic anime to watch - but Vice gets stuck on that last point. ―
ANN Reader / Subscriber Give-Away Winners
Did you win? ― Anime News Network is giving away a copy of Cowboy Bebop" The Complete Series on DVD from Funimation as well as Sword Art Online volumes 1 and 2 on DVD from Aniplex of America. The Sword Art Online give-away is open to all readers. Just enter your details below. The Cowboy Bebop give-away is open to all ANN subscribers, including Basic Subscription. Just enter your details below and yo...
Mary and The Witch's Flower Ticket Winners
Find out if you won tickets to see this week's screenings of Studio Ghibli's Mary and the Witch's Flower. ― To kick-off the one-night premiere event of Mary and The Witch's Flower, GKIDS and Fathom Events are giving away FREE tickets and cool merchandise! Based on the 1971 young adult novel The Little Broomstick, Mary and The Witch's Flower is an all-ages action fantasy adventure that hearkens back t...
Your Daily Streaming Reviews Schedule: Winter 2018
The results are in and we have your Daily Streaming Reviews schedule for Winter 2018! ― This season's poll results have been tallied and we've put together the schedule for the Winter 2018 Daily Streaming Reviews! We may add coverage of more winter anime based on future reader interest, so let us know what you'd like to see as the season progresses! (Please note that The Seven Deadly Sins and Fate/Ex...
Answerman - Why Did Anime Take So Long To Take Off In America?
Anime took a long time to gain popularity and pop cultural awareness in America, much longer than it took in other countries - why is that? Justin considers the angles. ― Edgar asked: I grew up in South America back in the 80s. Back then kids' anime was nothing short of mainstream in our country. We had several hours of anime in TV each day (such as the World Masterpiece Theater franchise) and some ...
Shelf Life - Haikyu!!
Gabriella takes to the court with this first season of the hit sports anime, and Paul breaks down all this week's new Blu-ray and DVD releases! ― I replaced my nine-year-old laptop recently, and I'm still in that magical honeymoon period with the new one. Everything about it is shiny and new, and I haven't yet felt the need to swear profusely at it or beg it to keep working for just one more day. I ...
REVIEW: Magical Girl Lyrical Nanoha Reflection
The first original theatrical film in the Nanoha franchise reaches for the stars, but steps out on the wrong foot. Kim Morrissy has the details on this movie straight from Japan. ― Before I dive into this review, I should give a bit of context about this movie and where it fits into the Nanoha timeline. Magical Girl Lyrical Nanoha Reflection is the third Nanoha film, but it's the first to feature an ...
Kitaro: The Great Tanuki War GN
As both the least episodic and the most intense of Kitaro's adventures so far, this piece of manga history leaves a strong impression. Rebecca Silverman has the details. ― Most of us are familiar with the Japanese monsters known as tanuki, and to a lesser degree their real-life animal counterpart, as the friendly raccoon dogs who shapeshift and play tricks, or maybe as the statues with giant testicle...
ANN 2018 Reader Survey
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The List - 8 Works by Masaaki Yuasa & Where to Find Them
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The Saga of Tanya the Evil Novel 1
This highly technical and thoroughly detailed first volume is far less light and action-packed than its anime adaptation might suggest. Theron Martin examines how this novel expands on Tanya's story. ― Saga of Tanya the Evil started off as a webnovel on the Japanese site Arcadia before being acquired and published by Enterbrain. A 12-episode anime adaptation aired one year ago, and a follow-up movie ...


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30 Jul 2013, by Suzanvan Borkum
starts on 4 Sep 2013,
ends on 4 Sep 2013
Sam Bond's
407 Blair Blvd, Eugene, OR 97402
0 Comments on this event
Mozes and the Firstborn announced its first US tour this summer.
The band dropped their debut album 'I got skills' with much bravado. With terms like 'the messiah is here' and 'resistance is futile' that left nothing to the imagination. The average band member is 18, but nevertheless these youngsters are following their Ten Commandments. Result is a skittish and youthful bunch who delivers a surprisingly aged and skilled rock sound.
August 27 - Larimer Lounge, Denver, CO
August 28 - Kilby Court, Salt Lake City, UT
August 29 - The Shredder, Boise, ID
September 3 - Sunset Tavern, Seattle, WA
September 4 - Sam Bond's, Eugene, OR
September 6 - Hemlock Tavern, San Francisco, CA
September 7 - The Echo, Los Angeles, CA
September 8 - Constellation Room, Santa Ana, CA
September 10 - The Casbah, San Diego, CA
September 11 - Last Exit, Phoenix, AZ
September 13 - Lola's Saloon, Forth Worth, TX
September 14 - Stubb's BBQ, Austin, TX
September 15 - Fitzgerald, Houston, TX
September 17 - Club Downunder, Tallahassee, FL
September 20 - Kung Fu Necktie, Philadelphia, PA
September 21 - Cameo, Brooklyn, NY
Moses and the Firstborn at Sam Bond's upcoming events:
in the spotlight
May 15, 2018
From 15 to 18 May the Iconic Houses Conference will take place in Norwalk, CT.
read more
Feb 2, 2018
On February 3 "The Red Turtle" will be screened at FIAF with an introduction by the maker.
read more
Nov 7, 2017
Li Edelkoort will give several Trend Seminars in 2018
read more
Jan 23, 2018
On January 23, the film "Riphagen: The Untouchable" will be screened at the Jewish Cinema Mississippi Film Festival in Madison, MS.
read more


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Traveller's typewriters or portable typewriters were smaller, lighter typewriters that began to be produced towards the end of the 19th century. Blickensderfer's portable typewriters were some of the first to be made. Blickensderfer also developed the first electric typewriter, with a type wheel. It is believed that Mina may be using a Columbia portable typewriter, which came onto the market in 1885 and weighed only 6 pounds, and may also have been used by Bram Stoker to type up Dracula.
Click here to read an article from 1913 on portable typewriters
Images of Columbia typewriters.
Image of one type of Columbia portable typewriter.
Image of a Blickensderfer portable typewriter.