text:
Moderate exercises like walking and strength coaching once done thrice per week will facilitate corpulent ladies to cut back the risks related to physiological condition polygenic disorder — a kind of high blood glucose poignant pregnant ladies, a study says.
Obese ladies ar at increased risk of complications throughout gestation, the foremost common of that ar physiological condition polygenic disorder, high pressure level, an outsized increase in weight likewise as pre-eclampsia.
"It's vital to cut back obesity-related gestation complications as a result of they'll have long-run consequences for each the mother and her kid," same lead scientist digit Moholdt from the Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU) in urban center, Norway.
Obese mothers also are at Associate in Nursing increased risk of needing a caesarean and parturition to massive babies. These complications will have a good impact on the health of each mother and kid, not simply throughout gestation, however additionally later in life, the researchers same.
The findings showed that the quantity of exercise required to cut back the danger of physiological condition polygenic disorder isn't terribly high.
"That meant that even a touch coaching throughout gestation are often useful," same Kirsti Krohn Garnæs, student candidate at NTNU.
Further, ladies United Nations agency followed the exercise program additionally showed lower pressure level towards the top of their gestation.
"We advise all ladies to exercise throughout gestation, as long as there are no medical reasons that forestall them from workout," Moholdt prompt.
In a massive study researchers studied the result of normal exercise throughout gestation in ninety one corpulent and pregnant ladies.
Women within the exercise cluster were invited to 3 weekly supervised sessions of hour throughout the course of their gestation.
The coaching consisted of thirty five minutes of moderate intensity treadmill walking and twenty five minutes of strength coaching. The management cluster was given commonplace prenatal care.
Of these, solely 2 within the exercise cluster versus 9 within the management cluster developed physiological condition polygenic disorder.
The results were printed within the journal PLOS medication.
Exercise could cut physiological condition polygenic disorder risk in corpulent ladies
Moderate exercises like walking and strength coaching once done thrice per week will facilitate corpulent ladies to cut back the risks related to physiological condition polygenic disorder — a kind of high blood glucose poignant pregnant ladies, a study says.


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Tuesday, April 22, 2014
The Metropolitan Police Department is seeking the public's assistance in locating 13 year-old Derren Richardson who was last seen in the 300 block of Webster Street, NW, on Monday, April 21, 2014.
Derren is described as a black male with a medium complexion, 5'0" tall, weighing approximately 110 pounds, black hair, and brown eyes. He was last seen wearing a long sleeve blue and white checkered shirt, a green army camouflage jacket, blue jeans, and black tennis shoes.
Anyone with information regarding the whereabouts of Derren Richardson is asked to call the Metropolitan Police Department at 202-727-9099, Youth Investigations Division at 202-576-6768, or 911.

subset: commoncrawl


text:
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text:
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College of Staten Island coach Mike Mauro and his Dolphins baseball team were on hand early last Saturday morning.
It was an all-hands at 7 a.m. sharp for the pre-Thanksgiving Dr. Theodore Atlas Foundation annual turkey giveaway event at Atlas Foundation headquarters in West Brighton.
That early call, if you don't remember, is not an easy hour to rally a bunch of college-age kids on a weekend.
But Mauro, in his ninth year with the Dolphins, uses the direct approach.
"I tell all the kids before they join the program that part of playing ball here is doing some community service," says the 47-year-old one-time Detroit Tigers farmhand and NYC cop. "If you can't commit to that, then you can't play ball for us."
And so it is that nearly 30 college ballplayers show up every Saturday before Thanksgiving to dispense turkeys and all the trimmings to folks who can use it.
Island church groups and help organizations show up, and the Dolphins players and other goodhearted volunteers load vans and cars and small trucks with food to be dispensed across the island.
This year there were more than 1,300 turkey dinners passed along to people who now won't have to worry about where the holiday meal is coming from or how they'll pay for it.
"That's a lot of heavy lifting," the coach laughs. "We let the players take care of that part of the operation."
Why does Mauro get involved?
The short answer is the one-time minor league roommate of MLB Players Association president Tony Clark is big on community outreach.
His team helps to raise money each year for cancer research and in support of efforts to learn more about autism.
And the connection with the Atlas Foundation has become personal.
Mauro is a big fan of the organization.
"They do tremendous work," he says.
And he believes this one day might be the best learning tool at a coach's disposal: More so than all the batting cages and pitching gurus and hitting instructors, for a guy trying to teach young people what the real world is all about.
"Most of my players come from Staten Island or close by," says Mauro. "But every year at least one of them comes here and afterward says, 'Coach, I had no idea there will people who needed help like this.' Having them begin to understand that is as important as anything we do."
There's another great teaching moment every year that foundation head Teddy Atlas is not off on assignment for ESPN.
"Teddy speaks to the kids, and he is great at getting to the core of what the day is all about," says Mauro.
He tells the healthy, young ballplayers to to take in their surroundings. He remarks that from the looks on the player's faces, the interaction with some of the Island's needy cases has clearly affected the Dolphins team.
That part of the conversation is always the same for the simple reason that is so obviously the case each and every year.
"You guys have seen how some other people live," Atlas tells them. "And you have sympathy and want to help them. That's good.
"But here's the important part of today," he continues. "The way you feel today about these neighbors of yours - always feel that way."
That, he says, is what Thanksgiving is all about.


text:
Updates with comment from pilot
Two people suffered minor injuries during the forced landing of a small airplane on the Soboba Band of Luiseño Indians Reservation near Hemet on Thursday morning, Nov. 10.
The red and white, single-engine Grumman AA1 lost power about 10:30 a.m., landed in a field and flipped, said Ian Gregor, a spokesman for the Federal Aviation Administration.
The pilot, David F. Pelham, of Idyllwild, said by phone from Riverside University Health System Medical Center in Moreno Valley that the engine cut out when it stopped receiving fuel. Why that happened, he said, is under investigation.
"I'm fine," he said. "They're poking and prodding and testing."
Pelham said his passenger will be OK as well.
Both had to be cut out of the plane, said Deputy Armando Muñoz, a Riverside County sheriff's spokesman. The plane was found in a rocky field to the east of a dry riverbed off Cedar Avenue.
Pelham said his plane is based at Hemet-Ryan Airport. He has been a pilot for 23 years.
Firefighters from the Soboba Department of Public Safety and Cal Fire/Riverside County Fire Department responded to the incident.
The FAA and National Transportation Safety Board will investigate.


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Maybe Spirit's Carry-On Fees are a Good Idea5
When I first saw the tweet from Forrester's Henry Harteveldt (who got my vote for most trusted person in travel) this morning that Spirit Airlines will be charging fees for carry-on items I had the same reaction that many probably did when they saw the headline: "Enough is enough, stop trying to shake me down every time I get on an airplane in the endless pursuit of ancillary revenue!" (I'm sure the guys at Southwest did handstands when they saw the news). And from a purely non-analytical sentiment analysis of reactions on Twitter, it seemed that plenty of people felt the same way.
But then I read the press release and I completely turned around my point of view. I love it. I applaud it. What we have here is more of a "failure to communicate" rather than a bad idea.
Here's the Good
The important part in evaluating the new fees are the following graphic:
Yes, they're charging for carry-ons, but note they are charging LESS for checked baggage than carry-ons (and there is a long list of excluded items + you get one free that fits under the seat). What they're encouraging — although not marketing — is to change passengers behaviors to make it easier to load/unload the plane. One of my pet peeves is when people bring on big rollerboards that don't fit in the overhead bins which both takes room away from other passengers (sometimes forcing others to stow their bags far from their actual seat) and takes longer to stow. So now all those people who are trying to cut a few minutes from their travel plans by not checking their luggage (and yes it is their luggage) will have to pay for that privilege…or check the damn bag.
The second good move for Spirit is that they're discounting for people who are members of their $9 Club (promoting loyalty) and also rewarding those who plan ahead — which in turn allows Spirit to better plan ahead and increase the efficiency of their operations.
And now for the bad…
The only real problem I have with the move as you can tell is the way they communicated it. First of all they combined the announcement of their PENNY PLUS fares which seems to deliver lower fares and deliver a tremendous level of cost transparency to their passengers to show why the fares cost the amount they do. But then they muck up this great message (did you see any headlines about this or just the carry-on baggage fees?) by merging it with the new bag fee structure. Which leads me to my second point.
Now I recognize that Spirit is a low cost carrier and wants to continue to position every move they make as one that enables them to provide the lowest fares to their passengers. But I argue that they should have positioned the baggage fee move to highlight the improvement to the majority of their customers' travel experiences (faster boarding, better on time performance) as the primary benefit and then show that it also supports their position as the low cost leader. Spirit's Chief Operating Officer Ken McKenzie said "Bring less; pay less. It's simple." and the release does acknowledge the improvement to the customer experience. I just think they put the emphasis on the wrong syl-lable (as my high-school Spanish teacher used to say)…and it showed up in the headlines that were written.
So what do you think about Spirit's move? Does this post make you feel any different than you did before you read it? Let me know.


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SU in the News: Thursday, May 19
The Central New York Business Journal reported that Richard L. Thompson G'67 officially assumed the role of chairman of the University's Board of Trustees.
CNN Money reported on the convocation address by Syracuse University iSchool alumnus Dennis Crowley '98, founder of Foursquare.
SU's Green Data Center is featured in an article in Progressive Engineer, an online magazine that promotes sustainability in engineering.
The Eagle featured a report the awarding of the first loan through the new Near Westside Initiative (NWSI) microloan program developed by NWSI deputy director Michael Short in partnership with the Community Foundation and Cooperative Federal Credit Union.
Robert Thompson, director of the Bleier Center for Television and Popular Culture in the S.I. Newhouse School of Public Communications, is quoted in a USA Today story on a Starbucks promotion featuring celebrity Lady Gaga.
Rick Burton, David B. Falk Professor of Sport Management in the College of Human Ecology, was interviewed in Sports Business Daily about publication of his novel "The Darkest Mission" through the print-on-demand publisher Lulu.
Donald Saleh, vice president for enrollment management, is quoted in a YNN story on college preparation and how to improve graduation rates for Syracuse City School District high school students. Say Yes and SU Project Advance are also mentioned.
To subscribe to SU in the News by daily e-mail, send a message to firstname.lastname@example.com with the following in the message body: subscribe SUINTHENEWS


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GMO's Jeremy Grantham warns about Short Termism
reprinted from GMO Newsletter. Jeremy Grantham, Chief Investment Strategist & Co-Founder, GMO speaking about the challenges of humanity
You and I, and our government must avoid the impulse to live only for today, plundering, for our own ease and convenience, the precious resources of tomorrow.1
- Dwight D. Eisenhower, 19611
[They] would have us believe that there is no cause for anxiety, that reserves [of oil] will last thousands of years, and that before they run out science will have produced miracles. Our past history and security have given us the sentimental belief that the things we fear will never really happen – that everything turns out right in the end. But prudent men will reject these tranquilizers and prefer to face the facts so that they can plan intelligently…2
- Admiral Hyman Rickover, 19572
The nation that destroys its soil destroys itself.3
- Franklin Delano Roosevelt, 1937
Last quarter I tried to make the case that the inevitable mismatch between finite resources and exponential population growth had finally shown its true face after many false alarms. This was made manifest through a remarkably bubble-like explosion of prices for raw materials. Importantly, prices surged twice in four years, which is a most unbubble-like event in our history book. The data suggested to us that rarest of rare birds; a new paradigm. And a very uncomfortable one at that. (In general, though, I have tried here not to repeat arguments or data used last quarter.)
This quarter, I would like to focus on the most dangerous parts of the coming shortages. I will try to separate those that, for us rich countries, are merely going to slow down the growth rate of our wealth through rising prices, and those that will do not only that, but will actually be a threat to the long-term viability of our species when we reach a population level of 10 billion. In all cases, poorer countries will be the most threatened. Situations that will irritate some of us with higher prices will cause others to starve. Situations that will cause some of us to go hungry will be for others a real disaster, and I believe this, unfortunately, will not be in the dim and distant future.
Obviously, experts have written books on subtopics that I reduce to one sentence. I might add that these books and a myriad of articles by these experts – who have decades of experience – absolutely do not agree with each other. In fact, they differ probably as widely as any scientific topic around, often by a literal order of magnitude and often with heat. Unlike many scientific differences, some of those concerning our resources in the long run may actually be a matter of life and death. I have tried to start from a weighted-average position and then have allowed for a safety margin tilted in favor of protecting our long-term well-being. By definition, plenty of experts will disagree with each statement made here. My hope is that "our" experts are those that are more rigorous, intelligent, and protective.
Capitalism does not address these very long-term issues easily or well. It seems to me that capitalism's effectiveness moves along the spectrum of time horizons, brilliant at the short end but lost, irrelevant, and even plain dangerous at the very long end.
- We humans have the brains and the means to reach real planetary sustainability. The problem is with us and our focus on short-term growth and profits, which is likely to cause suffering on a vast scale. With foresight and thoughtful planning, this suffering is completely avoidable.
- Although we will have energy problems with peak oil, this is probably an area where human ingenuity will
- indeed eventually triumph and in 50 years we will have muddled through well enough, despite price problems along the way.
- Shortages of metals and fresh water will each cause severe problems, but in the end we will adjust our behavior enough to be merely irritated rather than threatened, although in the case of metals, the pressure from shortages and higher prices will slowly increase forever.
- Running out completely of potassium (potash) and phosphorus (phosphates) and eroding our soils are the real long-term problems we face. Their total or nearly total depletion would make it impossible to feed the 10 billion people expected 50 years from now.
- Potassium and phosphorus are necessary for all life; they cannot be manufactured and cannot be substituted for. We depend on finite mined resources that are very unevenly scattered around the world.
- Globally, soil is eroding at a rate that is several times that of the natural replacement rate. It is probable, although not certain, that the U.S. is still losing ground. The world as a whole certainly is.
- The one piece of unequivocal good news can be found in the growth of no-till farming. In no-till, the residue of the previous crop is left on the ground and new seeds are planted without plowing. This technique reduces erosion by around 80%, reduces fertilizer run-off, preserves moisture, improves the soil (and, quite possibly, the quality of the food), and reduces the emissions of heat trapping gasses.
- The growth of no-till has been very rapid in South America, rapid in the U.S. (which is now at 35%), and moderate in many other developed countries. But it is used on only about 5% of farms globally.
- Overall, the best farms will have no erosion problems but, on average, soil will continue to be lost across the globe. Together with increased weather extremes and higher input prices (perhaps much higher), there will be increasing problems in feeding the world's growing population.
- In particular, a signifi cant number of poor countries found mostly in Africa and Asia will almost certainly suffer from increasing malnutrition and starvation. The possibility of foreign assistance on the scale required seems remote.
- The many stresses on agriculture will be exacerbated at least slightly by increasing temperatures, and severely by increased weather instability, especially more frequent and severe droughts and fl oods.
- These types of slow-burning problems that creep up on us over decades and are surrounded by a lack of scientific precision hit both our capitalist system and our human nature where it hurts.
Capitalism, despite its magnificent virtues in the short term – above all, its ability to adjust to changing conditions– has several weaknesses that affect this issue:
- It cannot deal with the tragedy of the commons, e.g., overfishing, collective soil erosion, and air contamination.
- The finiteness of natural resources is simply ignored, and pricing is based entirely on short-term supply and demand.
- More generally, because of the use of very high discount rates, modern capitalism attributes no material cost to damage that occurs far into the future. Our grandchildren and the problems they will face because of a warming planet with increasing weather instability and, particularly, with resource shortages, have, to the standard capitalist approach, no material present value. 4
With hindsight, there are a few additions and qualifications I would like to make regarding my letter on resources of last quarter. I will start with an overview of the prospects for our collective well-being: there is nothing about the resource limitation problem that we cannot resolve. We have the brain power and, especially, the inventiveness.
We have some nearly infinite resources: the sun's energy and the water in the oceans. We have some critically finite resources, but they can be rationed and stretched by sensible, far-sighted behavior to fill the gap between today, when we live far beyond a sustainable level, and, say, 200 years from now, when we may have achieved true long-term sustainability. Such sustainability would require improved energy and agricultural technologies and, probably, a substantially reduced population. With intelligent planning, all of this could be reasonably expected. A population reduction could be arrived at by a slow and voluntary decline (perhaps with some encouragement of smaller family size achieved, for example, through greater education). Such a reduction might leave us with a world population of anywhere from 1.5 billion to 5 billion, depending on the subtleties and interactions of many complicated variables. We would then be in long-term balance with our resources, including what will remain by then of our current biodiversity, which will hopefully be as much as one-half to three-quarters of what we have today.
The problem is not what we are capable of, but how we will actually behave. The wasteful status quo has powerful allies in the present corporate and political system. We do not easily accept bad news, nor do we easily deal with longhorizon problems. As mentioned last quarter, we are not particularly good with numbers, especially when it comes to probabilities, compound growth, and discount rates. We have a capitalist system that reflects our weaknesses; one that is fine-tuned only for the present and immediate future. Because of these factors, we will probably wait to deal with the obvious problems of living well beyond our means until the signs are powerful and clear that we must change; until, that is, it is basically too late. Too late in the sense of failing to protect much of what we enjoy and value today.
Too late to have avoided plundering our grandchildren's resources. It's a shame, but it's the bet a well-informed gambler, observing from another planet, would probably make. It's why, in the environmental business, which shares many of the same problems with resource management, it can be honestly said that there are old environmentalists and optimistic environmentalists, but no old, optimistic environmentalists. I'm probably as close as you're going to get. The following argument looks at the resource problems we face in order of declining optimism. I think what follows is reasonable rather than apocalyptic. And, there is one remarkable piece of good news – the steady rise of no-till farming. In this, the developed world at least seems to have truly lucked out! However, with the pressures of short-term profi t maximizing, there is some chance that we will not capitalize on our good luck.
A Possible Hierarchy of Problems
1. Energy
The transition from oil will give us serious and sustained problems. We passed peak oil per capita long ago and we are within 30 years, possibly within 10, of peak oil itself. The price will be volatile beyond our wildest dreams (or nightmares), and the price trend will rise, although at times this will be difficult to discern through the volatility.
Transportation will be difficult in general and air transportation in particular. But behind oil, there is a relative plenty of natural gas and coal, which can, although with cost and difficulty, be substituted for oil. Even with coal and gas, however, we are dealing with only many decades of supply, not centuries. But beyond hydrocarbons there really is good news. Within 50 years or so, I believe we will have made spectacular progress in the science and engineering of solar, wind, tidal, and other energy sources, together with storage. One simple storage management idea for the nearer term, for example, is that every electric car would have two easily-exchangeable battery packs, with one in the garage, storing solar from your roof while you drive to work. Whenever possible, all such batteries would be attached to an intelligent grid that would be able to raid batteries or deposit into them, giving massive fl exibility by today's standards. It is also possible (although, unfortunately, I believe improbable) that we will have a new, large-scale burst of activity in nuclear fission, perhaps stimulated by some technological improvements. Further out, completely new forms of commercial energy are likely, perhaps from nuclear fusion of some kind, or perhaps from something completely off of our current radar screen. This is where my optimism comes in, for I believe that in 50 or so years – after many and severe economic and, possibly, social problems – we will emerge with sufficient, reasonably-priced energy for everyone to live a decent life (if we assume other non-energy problems away for a moment) even if we don't radically improve our behavior and make true sustainability our number one goal. In other words, current capitalist responses to higher prices should get the job done. We should realize, though, that reasonably-priced does not mean the nearly give-away prices of oil in the post war period, which serves as a real testimonial to the failure of standard free-market practices to recognize that a vital resource being finite changes everything in the long run. "Reasonably-priced" fuel would be where prices rise steadily faster than the CPI rather than ruinously so.
2. Metals
Metals are, of course, a bigger long-term problem than energy. They are entropy at work … from wonderful metal ores to scattered waste. Even the best recycling will have slippage. Entropy is impressive; everything really does run downhill, iron really does rust. So our future will undoubtedly be increasingly constrained, particularly if our population and its wealth both grow steadily. Eventually, the growth of both population and wealth will be limited and possibly even stopped by a lack of metals, but that should, with luck, be a long time away. If we respond to increasing price pressures, as I'm sure we will, with a greater emphasis on quality and small scale along with an increasingly sensible and non-wasteful lifestyle, then we can push these serious constraints out for well over a hundred years. This is assuming, once again, no radical shift in attitudes and behavior other than those elicited by higher prices.
3. Agriculture
The trouble really begins with agriculture. This is the factor that I believe almost guarantees that we end up with a world population between 1.5 and 5 billion. The only question for me is whether we get there in a genteel, planned manner with mild, phased-in restraints, or whether we run head down and at considerable speed into a brick wall.
There are three particular aspects of agriculture where the shoe pinches the most: water, fertilizer, and soil. All three must be seen in the context of a rapidly growing population. To set the scene, Exhibit 1 shows arable land per person.
Unlike us, suitable land for agriculture has not increased since farming started some 10,000 years ago. In fact, with our help it has declined considerably, perhaps by as much as half or more!
Exhibit 1
World Hectares of Arable Land per Capita
Source: United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, U.S. Census Bureau As of 12/31/10
A. Water
There is no doubt that water shortages will be a source of economic and social trouble forever. Countries will rattle sabers or, worse, go to war over access to river waters. That is certain. But viewed as a problem for the U.S. or for the planet as a whole, it does not seem to be a game stopper. The surface of our planet is, after all, mostly water. For our direct use and for our crops, we need a derisorily small fraction of Earth's supply of water. The entire planet's current wasteful use of fresh water is equal to only 80% of the fl ow of the Amazon. We also use our existing supplies of renewable fresh water with desperate ineffi ciency and wastefulness. As prices rise, we can save not just a few percent but a great majority of our water by growing the right things in the right places and by sensibly sharing and recycling the resource. Further out, with likely sources of reasonably cheap energy, we could supplement our supply with desalinated ocean water for coastal populations. Other than shifting crops, the main effect on agriculture will be a steady increase in the cost of water as we move slowly to recognizing the real costs of supplying water to farming.
However, come back in 50 or 100 years and we will, I believe, have been persistently irritated by water problems but never seriously threatened as a species. For farming productivity, one of the greatest irritants for the next 50 years will be the depletion of fossil water: the great underground lakes of fresh water that receive little or no replenishment by rainfall. By bad luck, such vast deposits underlie and make possible some of the planet's great bread baskets, including parts of the U.S. plains, parts of the Northwest of the Indian subcontinent, and parts of Northeastern China. If these very large areas are to stay in production, and they will certainly be needed, then major water transfer systems – canals of 500 to 2,000 miles in length – will have to be developed and the water taken from elsewhere. But even this, although it spells investment and environmental troubles in a big way, sounds ultimately doable, at a price. (The nastiest near-term problem of this kind will be in Yemen, where there is almost total dependence on underground fossil water, which is beginning to run out as I write!)
B. Fertilizers
Fertilizers are, I believe, less tractable. The three major macro nutrient fertilizers are the well-known N-P-K of lawn fertilizer: nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium. Nitrogen, the most urgently needed of the three every year, is found in the greatest quantity so is happily the least problematical. Many crops, such as soya and alfalfa, supply or "fix" nitrogen for our main cereal production. Bioengineering is likely to increase this ability as well as broaden the range of plants that are able to do this. Electrical storms provide large quantities of nitrogen fertilizer out of the very air itself. (This provides about 5% of all nitrogen fi xation, while modern agriculture accounts for about 50%). More dependable man-made, or rather man-processed, nitrogen fertilizer is very effi ciently made with natural gas, which is being found, fortunately, in increased quantities in many different regions of the world. Several of these regions –notably the U.S. and China – are major grain producers. Therefore, if we don't go out of our way to waste our natural gas on less important products, we should be fi ne at least through this century. Nitrogen is the largest component of air and just needs energy to be converted into fertilizer. So, longer-term availability of nitrogen-based fertilizer is, as with water, about cost, not availability. But, starting with today's almost ridiculously low prices for natural gas (20% BTU equivalency of oil – just about the lowest in history), farmers should count on seeing increasing multiples of the price for nitrogen fertilizer in the next 10 to 15 years.
Potassium (potash)
Potassium is in a less favorable situation. Today's known resources are shown in Exhibit 2. Although it is found widely, very large and high grade (i.e., cheap) deposits are concentrated to quite a remarkable degree in two areas: one in Russia and Belarus and the other, happily for North America if we all stay friendly, in Canada. Unless there is considerable cartel-like behavior, which is certainly not unheard of these days with some commodities, then we have plenty of time to study the very long-term shortage problem. Luckily for us, potassium is a generously supplied element in the Earth's crust.
Nevertheless, it is worth pointing out that both potassium and phosphorus (phosphates) have some characteristics that we are not accustomed to dealing with in our neat and short-term-oriented investment world. They are characteristics that make energy problems seem trivial because energy can be extracted in so many different ways.
Potassium and phosphorus cannot be made. They are basic elements. No substitutes will do. Both potassium and phosphorus are required for all living matter, animal and vegetable. Most notably, us. We humans are, for example, approximately 1% phosphorus by body weight.
Modern high-production, single-crop agriculture today is very dependent on fi nite mined resources, which, if used wastefully, could easily cause a severe problem within 50 years and, if used sensibility and sparsely, could last for perhaps 200 years. And then what? You must recycle and farm super intelligently, as if your life depended on it. And it will.
Phosphorus (phosphates)
The reserve situation for phosphorus is shown in Exhibit 3. Admittedly, there are big arguments over reserves of both potash and phosphates because neither has been explored as comprehensively as have oil reserves. Here, too, we are quite lucky because the reserve life gives us time to plan sensibly for the rest of our lives (as a species, that is). But here again, the reserves are not evenly distributed and this time the skew is more, shall we say, interesting. It is thought that between 50% and 75% of the reserves are in Morocco and "associated" Western Sahara. Morocco's share of phosphates makes Saudi Arabia's share of oil look like small potatoes and, in the end, who values heating more than eating?
The existing high quality reserves shown in Exhibit 3 look, superficially, very satisfactory. There are reserves equal to 369 years of current production. Even allowing for 2% growth to help maintain productivity, these reserves would not run out for about 200 years. But, without Morocco and at 2% growth, reserves would be totally depleted in under 50 years. So with or without new reserves being located, some substantial gamesmanship should be expected within a few decades. Or, put it this way: if the phosphates were in my kingdom, I would try to make some hay.
The long-term phosphorus supply is probably the trickiest and most threatening issue to date. There may be a lot of lower-grade reserves that have not been listed or even looked for. (Why pay money to do that when there are decades' worth of low-cost, very high-quality reserves?) But there may not be. We are currently ferreting out as much of the limited data there is available. (Data on this and the many other conundrums raised in several of the topics discussed in this letter will be relayed from time to time as we can dig them out.) Serious scientifi c experts at this point are mostly "supposing" that, as is the case with many other resources, there are more, often much more, lower-quality reserves that are currently unrecorded than there are known high-quality reserves. But this is not always the case.
The U.K., for example, had a lot of high-quality anthracite and bituminous coal reserves, which propelled them into the Industrial Revolution, but today all of its anthracite is gone, most of its bituminous is gone, and there are no very large reserves of brown coal or lignite as there are, for example, in Germany.
Most, if not all, of the potash and phosphate deposits are associated with former oceans or salty seas, or that is believed by many to be the case. Well, if you wanted to be pessimistic, you could argue that you either have a dried up former ocean due to the ground rising over aeons, or you don't. Perhaps you don't have masses of smaller dried up bodies of water, which normally would be salt-free. In any case, we are all speculating at this point. Despite its potential importance, reliable data is just not available.
Let us imagine for a minute what might happen in 50 or 150 years when the last affordable phosphorus is delivered and Morocco is, quite sensibly, charging thousands of dollars a ton for the last one-third of its resources. We might be developing offshore recovery from the continental shelf at a little less than Morocco's price, but still a gaspingly high price that would not be even remotely affordable by poorer countries. But mostly we would be recycling, a word with which our grandchildren will get awfully bored. It's how crops were grown in the pre-commercial fertilizer age, at least wherever farmers could not engage in slash and burn and move on. Chinese farmers in particular successfully maintained the productivity of their fi elds for thousands of years by almost religiously recycling: off to the town market with two buckets of beans and back with two buckets of "night soil." Human and animal waste, as well as vegetable waste, was scrupulously reused. Countries that pushed their production or were not so careful in recycling depleted their soils. Eastern Europe in particular had recurrent crop failures and starvation as late as the 1880s. And, we could do it better now than the Chinese did in the old days, for science has marched on. We have learned to reduce nutrient loss considerably in the last 50 years. There is also much more that we could do, and we had better get moving: the last time the world depended mainly on recycling, the global population was a mere one billion. The next time it may be 10 billion – cross your fingers it's not more. Could a world based on recycling nutrients, even one supplemented by very high-priced remnants of our mined fertilizer resources, really feed 10 billion? Or even 5 billion? I think the answer is certainly no if we do not get our act together in the next very few decades. Even then, it is more likely that true sustainability will be a much lower number than 10 billion.
C. Soil Erosion
Finally, there is the real bugbear: soil erosion. The Earth is a wonderful place that obligingly creates new soil from bedrock, using the wear and tear of weather plus bacterial and microbial action. Perhaps even more remarkably, this new soil arrives with a good complement of phosphorus and potassium. This is pretty good treatment from a very generous planet. Before humans appeared, the rains would dissolve and wash away the soil and its associated nutrients just as fast as it was produced, but no faster. That's a pretty neat balancing trick too. We can record the steady, modest rate of erosion in ancient lake beds. Humans, alas, with their tree lust, initially for heat and shelter and later for arable space and fertilizer (burning the forest sheds its store of fertilizer and other nutrients), began to cut forests down so fast that the erosion rate increased. Nothing increases erosion and net nutrient loss faster than deforestation. (And, ironically, nothing encourages deforestation like erosion, because erosion decreases productivity and, hence, increases the pressure to bring on new land to fi ll the gap in a rather vicious feedback loop.) As our population grew, the forests were thus diminished in size, and the arable land increased. Even plowing savannahs, where trees had seldom or never grown, increased erosion by a large multiple. Sometimes these factors would accumulate with predictable results. In Panama, for example, it is common to see very hilly land that was once totally forested being used for cattle grazing. The cattle create paths that form gullies that funnel the tropical rains, which in turn denude whole hillsides in a few decades.
What the precise situation is today is hard to tell: First, erosion varies widely from region to region by type of soil and agricultural practice. Second, its measurement must also be diffi cult, for scientists have widely different views as to the best methodology. At one extreme, the reports are almost terrifying. A group of scientists from Cornell University writing in Science magazine5 summarized their fi ndings as follows: "Soil erosion is a major environmental threat to the sustainability and productive capacity of agriculture. During the last 40 years, nearly one-third of the world's arable land has been lost by erosion and continues to be lost at a rate of more than 10 million hectares per year … In the U.S. an estimated 40 billion tons of soil … are lost each year." Unfortunately, Cornell's Agricultural School has high standing in its fi eld – reading their summary, one's instinct is to say, "Well that's it then. In a hundred years, everyone starves." Fortunately, there are also those at the other extreme who think we'll muddle through just fi ne, at least in the U.S. And, as we will see, the rise of no-till farming has the potential to help a lot.
The brief nitty-gritty on erosion and replacement is that somewhere between 50 and 1,000 years is needed to naturally replace one inch (25mm) of subsoil, depending on local conditions and who is doing the research. Different soil has different weights, but averages about 5 tons per acre per millimeter or 125 tons per acre per inch. Therefore, the natural replacement rate is equal to 2.5 to 0.125 tons per acre per year, rather than the 5 tons per acre per year that the U.S.D.A. has been using as an acceptable erosion rate. To state this very conservatively, current U.S. soil losses are very probably higher than natural replacement and possibly considerably higher. In Australia too, where records go back into the nineteenth century, it is also clear that more than 70% of arable land has been degraded to some considerable degree. For the planet as a whole, soil losses are certainly higher than replacement, and for some areas, notably in Africa, they are disastrously higher.
Further offsetting any of the more favorable data in the U.S. is a recent report from Iowa State University.6 The report, which claims new accuracy levels, holds that typical erosion is not the issue, but that the rare extreme storm can cause one to several years' erosion in a single night as new gullies form in a way totally unlike those that form during regular rain storms. These outlier storms have unfortunately become much more common globally in recent years, with formerly rare weather events having become more frequent as a consequence of a warming climate.
History of Erosion
We now know that population density in the Fertile Crescent and some of the other centers of early civilization often dropped precipitously as their soils, due mainly to plowing, eroded. By the time they were finally disposed of by invaders, they were often shells of their former might with tiny fractions of their original populations left. North Africa was home to empires such as Carthage, which were powerful enough to challenge Rome and, in other cases, fertile enough to help feed Rome, which was the case of ancient Libya and Tunisia. Most of this territory has lost the great majority of its former agricultural capacity. Ancient Greece, Central Italy under the Romans, Syria, Iraq, and many others all suffered from the effects of subsoil erosion over a period of one thousand or more years, thus limiting their populations and reducing their economic and military power. In its later years, Rome, once at the center of fertile plains, abandoned farms everywhere and was totally dependent on imports from Egypt and Syria. Syria's history is one in which whole cities, with their dozens of surrounding villages, were later completely abandoned to the desert as their soil disappeared due to unsustainable agricultural practices. Fifteen hundred years ago in the Americas, civilizations such as the Mayans overtaxed their soils and provably lost enough soil to make it impossible to reliably feed their peak populations. (Two readable books for the summer that cover this topic in detail are: Dirt: The Erosion of Civilizations, by David R. Montgomery and Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed by Jared Diamond.) The academic study previously cited,7 claims the loss of one-third of our soil globally in just a few decades. It is easy to believe that since the beginning of human history it might be fully one-half, or even more.
The history of soil erosion bringing ancient empires down might have served as a powerful warning, but it does not seem to have done so. Since Colonial times, the U.S. is thought to have lost one-third to one-half of its topsoil, and today is still losing at a rate faster than replacement, although at a recently much-reduced rate. Yet, as recently as the 1920s, the 1930s of Dust Bowl fame, and the 1940s, U.S. farms were eroding at disastrous rates – well over 10 times replacement, despite the historical warnings.
Globally, the situation has been, and remains, much worse than in the U.S. It is not clear what it will take to drive home the message that erosion is perhaps the single largest threat to our long-term well-being. It is certainly one of them. But erosion is insidious in that it has always crept up very slowly on both ancient and modern civilizations alike. Syrian farmers in 100 A.D. were concerned with supplying Rome in a year when prices were high. We can be sure that slow (even if steady) losses of productivity seemed to them to be academic abstractions in contrast. Today, what we might call the tyranny of the discount rate guarantees the same behavior. Damage far out has little value, and there is no adjustment factor for damage to all of us collectively. Only the gain of the individual or the corporation appears in the spreadsheet. This is a severe, perhaps even fatal, fl aw in traditional free-market capitalism, and there are others that relate to this general topic: capitalism has not easily handled the fi niteness of our resources. This topic – deficiencies in capitalism – is a big one and I will try to do it justice next quarter. For now, to link the current topic of erosion with that of next quarter's on capitalism, I offer a brief story of the Devil and the Farmer.
The Devil and the Farmer
The Devil, disguised as an innocent agent of a large agricultural company, arrives at a typical Midwestern farm. He has come to suggest to the farmer that he engage in more aggressive farming, and he comes, as usual, with a contract. The contract, if signed, pledges the farmer to farm aggressively and pledges the Devil to guarantee that the farmer's profits will be multiplied fi ve-fold. But, as always, there is a catch:
that squeezing out maximum short-term output will result in the loss of just 1% per year of his soil. The Devil's deal is dangerously reasonable, and therefore I would guess that 90% of farmers would feel that their families' well-being requires that they accept it. The Devil has included a spreadsheet that accurately lays out the profi ts and also lays out the steady decline in the soil's productivity and, fi endishly, does it honestly. By the end of the 40-year contract, the farm's productivity is down by barely 5%, and the farmer's net fi nancial gains are enormous.
So successful has this period been that the farmer re-ups for another 40 years. Once again, the Devil does not cheat. By the 80-year mark, the soil depth after some natural replacement is almost precisely half of its year 1 level (and, remember, it also lost one-third to one-half of its soil on average in the fi rst 150 years of farming), but the farm has prospered enormously. And, even after the soil loss, it is still by no means particularly sub-average because it turns out that all of the local farmers have made the same deal. All of their productivities have dropped by 20% to 25% but, because of global pressures on grain prices, the deal still looks attractive. The spreadsheets, which have not lied in the past, still accurately and honestly show how profi table it will be for great-grandson and all of his neighbors to re-up yet again. In this way, by always adopting the plan with the optimal present value and by following strict capitalist principles, the Midwest and the planet marches off the edge of the cliff, as farmers, prosperous almost to the very end, are finally overwhelmed by armies of starving city dwellers!
(Note: Appendix 2 shows the back-up material. It is not even close. Normal farmers, using any reasonable discount, would sign and re-sign until soil and productivity go to zero!)
Finally, the Good News
So as not to end too gloomily, I have saved the best news for the end; news so good that Cornucopians can jump for joy and gloomy Malthusians can think "What undeserved luck!" Most huge improvements in anything take equally huge investments of time, energy, and capital. This one, which reduces erosion rates from way over sustainability to acceptable levels, requires very little except a willingness to change one's ways, a characteristic not always in great supply in any group, including farmers. No-till farming, developed in recent decades has, after a slow start, been spreading very rapidly in South America. It is now used in more than 50% of all arable land there, which, given the heavy rains in much of the area, is just as well. In the U.S., the adoption of no-till has very recently accelerated and it now accounts for more than 35% of farmland according to the U.S.D.A. In general, it is growing elsewhere, albeit slowly, and hardly at all in Africa. The bad news is that globally, despite its advantages, it makes up only a 5% share of grain production. Just as it sounds, no-till leaves the crop residue on the fi eld and the following year, instead of plowing up the ground, a rotating wheel pierces the ground every few inches and plants a seed, sometimes together with a precisely measured dose of fertilizer. After a few years, the mat of ground cover massively reduces the erosion caused by heavy rains: the average academic study reports more than an 80% reduction, with the highest being 98% and the lowest 50%. In one fell swoop, the erosion problem can be effectively resolved.
Protecting the soil may be the biggest single advantage of no-till, but there are several other important ones. When soil is washed or blown away, it is the very top soil that goes, and this is the soil that carries much of the nutrients that have been added at no small cost. About one-third of the fertilizer is wasted. This was an irritant when potash was $175 a ton fi ve years ago. At the more recent price of $420 a ton, it is a serious saving – enough to get farmers' attention. With no-till, there are incremental nutrients in the accumulated stubble, which further reduces costs and, more importantly, reduces the load on critical limited fertilizer resources.
Water retention in the soil also greatly increases because the effects from full-scale plowing, which exposes the moist soil to the sun, are mitigated by no-till. When rain is plentiful and evenly spaced, there is little difference between the two systems in this respect, but when rains are scarce or there is full-scale drought, the extra moisture protected by the ground cover can make a big difference to productivity. So life is easier for the soil, whether it is a flood or a drought; a particularly compelling case in these days of increased weather instability.
Finally, the quality of the relatively undisturbed soil improves as the number of microbes, bacteria, fungi, and other living critters steadily multiplies. This in turn arguably increases the carbon density of the soil and definitely further increases the water retention capacity and the amount of micronutrients, which, under full plowing, basically fall to zero. It is widely believed that micronutrients make food healthier and that their chronic absence in modern food has not been healthy for us, molded as we are by tens of thousands of years of eating more complicated foods. All in all, no-till is like a gift from Ceres and single-handedly would remove or long postpone most of our longterm productivity problems. With no-till, productivity typically drops slightly in the fi rst few years, but then slowly increases. Conversely, with high-erosion plowing, it slowly decreases, with potentially severe consequences over very long periods. Another disadvantage of no-till is that it requires more insecticide, especially in the first few years, which has environmental and fi nancial costs. Researchers, though, increasingly believe that most of this increase can be removed by fine-tuning crop rotation, cover crops, and other "engineering" tricks. The bottom line seems to be that if we adopted no-till globally for a great majority of our grain crops, the only serious threat to agricultural productivity would be from the very long-term shortage of mined fertilizers, with even that threat much postponed. Additional efforts with soil enhancement and full-scale organic farming could further improve fertility and lower the need for "outside" fertilizer, but that is a topic too complicated and controversial to be covered here.
None of this changes the ultimate equation that we have a fi nite carrying capacity. As the population continues to grow, we will be stressed by recurrent shortages of hydrocarbons, metals, water, and, especially, fertilizer. Our global agriculture, though, will clearly bear the greatest stresses. It may have the responsibility for feeding an extra two to three billion mouths, an increase of 30% to 40% in just 40 years. The availability of the highest quality land will almost certainly continue to shrink slowly, and the quality of typical arable soil will continue to slowly decline globally due to erosion despite increased efforts to prevent it. This puts a huge burden on increasing productivity. Such increases have to contend not only with thinner soils, but also with increasing climate instability, rising costs of all inputs, and long-term availability limitations of fertilizer. In a way that has not applied to the last one or two hundred years but certainly did to many ancient civilizations, we will need to protect and nurture our resources –particularly our farms – if we do not intend to follow them into sand and rocks and depopulation. Encouraged by higher prices, we will become more frugal and more sensible and stretch out our resources, buying us more time for a natural decline in population to eventually bring us into balance. (Leading candidates for greater frugality in grain consumption, for example, would be reduced meat consumption and the banning of the use of quality farmland to produce gasoline substitutes. The U.S. ethanol program is, on a global level, a callous trade-off between unnecessary help to U.S. farmers on the one hand and increasing malnutrition and outright starvation in some of the poorest countries on the other hand.)
Here, the discussion is about the pain and time involved in getting to long-term sustainability as well as trying to separate the merely irritating from the real, often surreptitious, threats to the long-term viability of our current affluent but reckless society. The moral however, is clear. As Jim Rogers likes to say: be a farmer not a banker – the world needs good farmers! I might add: or become a resource efficiency expert and help the world save some of them for our grandchildren. Farming will be a satisfying and enriching experience if, on a global basis, we rise to the longterm agricultural challenges. And, if good old short-term profi t maximizing continues as it did for the Syrian, Greek, and Roman farmers before us, then at least today's farm owners will go down with the ship, travelling in first class.
Appendix 1: Malthusians and Cornucopians: the Ehrlich-Simon Bet
While still on the topic of resources, there are a few points I'd like to make on the subject of the famous bet made between Paul Ehrlich and Julian Simon in 1980, which is so often mentioned by opponents of any ideas regarding resource limits. They have been called Cornucopians, which I think is a great term for them. Ehrlich believed that we were beginning to run out of resources; we might call him a Malthusian. He refl ected the Club of Rome's thinking and the famous book entitled The Limits to Growth.8 Simon on the other hand, who worked at the Cato Institute for many years, was a classic super-Cornucopian: everything will always be fi ne because of our species' boundless resourcefulness; population increases are to be welcomed because they cause growth, which in turn stimulates invention so that there will always be plenty. The Cato Institute generally supports any theory that will result in less government and fewer restraints on corporations. (They were grubstaked by the Koch family, they of the hydrocarbon empire, who, not surprisingly, profoundly agree with those beliefs.) The argument that mankind might seriously endanger the long-term productivity of the planet by wasteful overconsumption or by unnecessarily large emissions of carbon dioxide is a dangerous "idea" for libertarians and Cornucopians (we might, I think, reasonably call such things "facts") that might open the door to regulation. Ergo, the facts must be disputed. And every argument along the way, large or small, must be grimly defended, especially the ideal of limitless growth. And defend it Mr. Simon did, and very effectively. He engaged Ehrlich in a bet on this topic, which he famously won, and the Cornucopians have never let anyone in this fi eld forget it. The essence of the bet was that Ehrlich believed that compound growth could not be sustained in a world of fi nite resources, and therefore the real price of raw materials would rise. Simon argued that, regardless of the rate of growth, real prices would fall. Of course, the spirit of this bet has no time limit – 40 years is better than 10, and 100 is better than 40. But a bet like this between humans of middle age is one that both would like to collect on. So, the bet was set at 10 years and fi ve commodities9 were chosen by mutual agreement. Here again, all commodities would have represented the spirit of the bet better than five, but five was easier to monitor. Simon won all fi ve separate bets fair and square at the 10-year horizon. But let's admit that this is a very unsatisfactory time period for the rest of us who are really interested in this contest of ideas. So, let's take an equally arbitrary but much more satisfactory bet: from then, 1980, until now, and include all of the most important commodities. Simon would have lost posthumously, and by a lot! (Even of the original fi ve, he is only one for fi ve, having won the least signifi cant of the fi ve: tin.) So, please "Cornucopians," let's not hear any more of the Ehrlich-Simon bet, which proves, in fact, both that man is mortal and must make short-term bets, and, more importantly, that Ehrlich's argument was right (so far).[Jeremy Grantham is a British investor and Co-founder and Chief Investment Strategist of Grantham Mayo Van Otterloo (GMO), a Boston-based assest management firm. GMO is one of the largest managers of such funds in the world, having more than US $107 billion in assets under management as of December 2010. Grantham is regarded as a highly knowledgeable investor in various stock, bond, and commodity markets, and is particularly noted for his prediction of various bubbles]
1 Dwight D. Eisenhower, Farewell Address, January 17, 1961. (Also see, Jeremy Grantham's "I Like Ike: A Powerful Warning Ignored," January 14, 2011;
located in the Library of GMO's website, registration required.)
2 Admiral Hyman Rickover, "Energy Resources and our Future," remarks delivered in 1957.
3 Franklin Delano Roosevelt, Letter to all State Governors on a Uniform Soil Conservation Law, February 26, 1937.
4 An expanded discussion on the failings of capitalism will be in next quarter's letter. In addition, a discussion on the current market, including any investment implications from this piece, will be posted in two weeks.
5 David Pimentel, et al., "Environment and Economic Costs of Soil Erosion and Conservation Benefits," Science, New Series, Volume 267
Footnote 23 is a clause that informs the farmer 6 Craig Cox, Andrew Hug, and Nils Bruzelius, "Losing Ground," April 2011; http://static.ewg.org/reports/2010/losingground/pdf/losingground_report.pdf
7 Ibid.


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a VirtualTourist member from Three Rivers
We will be traveling to Nashville next week. Staying at a motel by the airport and plan to do all the traditional tourist stuff. I have reviewed this site but have a few specific questions.
What is better to traveling to the downtown area: I40 or other connecting roads.
What is the current construction areas to avoid?
Where are just regular places to eat that are not just touristy? We will be having to take lunch downtown a few days for touring.
I have read about downtown parking. We have to make a stop at the Visitor's center to get discount tickets before some tours. Can one person go in and the other drive around? How strict are they on ticketing if someone stays in the car?
Any places to avoid due to flood damage?
Any other info you can let me know about?
Go to NEW Nashville questions, or browse older Nashville travel answers


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Rachael's Story Part 2: My Way Back
Rachael's Story Part 2: My Way Back
A year ago, Rachael Keogh's heroin addiction had left her broke, homeless and desperate for help. Now clean, she is writing a book, studying at university and preparing for pregnancy. Sky News Documentary. Follow up to the previous documentary, "My Heroin Hell". Some may find the images disturbing.
I really dont no what 2 say but well done Racheal, im a recovering addict mysekf I was 2trs clean july gone and it was so hard, things have happened me terrible things that i will never 4get and friends of mine I am delighted you have done this especally going to tat school because kids growing up these days havn't a chance the way the world is. Luckly for me im only 23 but i have a 5yr old daughter that is my life. Its great to hear storys like yours. WELL DONE!!!


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The Frederick Amateur Radio Club would love to help you get started on an exciting new adventure. Using the buttons below use the More Info button to learn what the process is to get licensed. For resources on learning how to study to get your license click on the Resources button.Once you are ready to take the test, you can take the test during one of our quarterly free testing sessions or there are typically a few testing locations within 50 miles every weekend, we can help you find a location to take your test.More InfoResources
Our monthly club meeting is Monday August 21 at 1900. We meet in the social hall in the Independent Hose Company on Baughmans Ln. All VEs please show up 15 minutes early for a brief discussion on testing.


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Frank Sinatra slept here
Tired of all the modern city hotels and ready for some island time with Jimmy Buffet music and one of the grandest hotels anywhere. Hotel Galvez is less than a tank away and harks back to much simpler yet grander times.Hotel Galvez named after an 18th century governor of the Louisiana Territory Count Bernardo de Galvez has recently gone through an 11 million dollar face lift restoring the hotel to its' early 20th century splendor.
The hotel features 231 rooms many with spectacular ocean views a tropical veranda marble bathrooms and a historical charm that may feel more like Cuba or Puerto Rico than Texas.
Developed by St.Louis architectural firm Mauna and Russell and funded by local businessmen committed to repairing Galveston's commerce after the United States worst natural disaster the Great Storm in 1900. In the 20's and 30' s the hotel flourished and hosted presidents Roosevelt, Eisenhower, and of course Texan Lyndon Johnson.General Douglas MacArthur, Frank Sinatra , and Jimmy Stewart split the sheets at the Galvez. In 1995 preservationists George and Cynthia Mitchell turned this fair lady into one of the finest places you will visit. The millennium celebration awaits you.


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The biggest illusion sold to Western populations is that the current stage of human development in the West represents the "End of History", which means there is no way history would make any progress beyond western standards, therefore the rest of the world should adopt western ways of life and values, and definitely give up any idea of alternative civilization.
That belief system is epitomized by the famous and best seller book of the American intellectual juggler Francis Fukuyama titled "The End of History and the Last Man", published in 1989.
This book had helped create the doctrine of "Bombing for Democracy" (if they won't accept western value, bring it to them there with bombs", and "humanitarian intervention" (spread diseases, famines, or create terror in order to get in, and make the west export its best product "democracy").
The worst consequence of that ideology is however the rise of extreme right and conservative groups in the West which would be impossible to stop. The underlying trigger is "We need to preserve the present order. This current order is at our advantage and the emergence of the brown people is not good for us".
The world would pay a high price for an illusion sold to White people by their elite: "We will keep the world as it's now, with the white man and woman at the top of the food chain. We promise that to you, and we will deliver that to you".
Unfortunately for Europeans, no one can stop history. Now or later change is inevitable, and the brown people won't stay forever under the current predatory system.
The end of history theory has done so much damage already, and will continue to do more, unless the West would concede that the world is diverse, and change in rank and status is natural.
Trying to Stop history would create more violence.
Right wing parties and conservative groups in Europe and America would become more popular and more influential and would shape the near future of those regions, and probably the world, if that illusion is not debunked by the same elite.
The unstopped rise of Conservatism in the west is currently the highest danger to world peace and the stability.
About Mawuna KOUTONIN
Mawuna Koutonin is a world peace activist who relentlessly works to empower people to express their full potential and pursue their dreams, regardless of their background. He is the Editior of SiliconAfrica.com, Founder of Goodbuzz.net, and Social activist for Africa Renaissance. Koutonin's ultimate dream is to open a world-class human potential development school in Africa in 2017. If you are interested in learning more about this venture or Koutonin's other projects, you can reach him directly by emailing at firstname.lastname@example.com.


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PRIVACY and PEACE is what can be found at this Country like setting yet minutes from schools and shopping. Beautifully UPGRADED and well maintained, this home boasts 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, large den and spacious screen in porch. CUSTOM KITCHEN with stainless steel appliances. Vaulted ceilings add to the openness and airy feeling this home offers. The master bedroom is sure to please with its tray ceiling and over sized walk in closet! Master bath has a garden tub and shower. Tiled flooring throughout the main living area and top of the line laminate in the bedrooms. STEEL CONSTRUCTION built to withstand 165 mph winds and a state of the art water treatment system add to the value of this home. Make your appointment today and see for yourself! This will not last!
Melissa Senise ReMax Solutions
Mobile-: 3215066418
Email-: email@example.com
Office-: 321-766-5674


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The following statement has been issued by four former presidents of the Constitutional Court of Poland. It has been published widely in Polish media, here is a translation:
When the new Acts on the Constitutional Tribunal enter into force, the period of activity of the Constitutional Tribunal of the Republic of Poland will come to an end. It will be the end of activity by which a system of constitutionality control guaranteed the efficient defence of the rule of law and a control which systematically strengthened the guarantee of our fundamental rights.
We note with the highest degree of concern and with the highest care for the future of democratic system of the Republic, that the ongoing actions aimed at undermining the role of the Constitutional Tribunal, at lowering its authority in the eyes of society and at limiting or indeed paralysing its functioning – have resulted in a dramatic situation where the most fundamental mechanism for the protection of the rule of law will be annihilated.This will happen first and foremost as by virtue of the new Acts, persons who do not possess a judicial mandate to perform judicial functions will be allowed to hear cases in the Constitutional Tribunal. Their appointment, as it results from the Tribunal's jurisprudence, occurred in violation of the Constitution. At the same time, the judges who were constitutionally appointed, and who have remained outside the composition of the Tribunal, will not be able to assume their office as they have not been invited by the President of the Republic to take the oath of office ...Zum vollständigen Artikel


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BFI Film Festival is officially here! The program has been announced for a whole flurry of film-lovers, filmmakers, and absolute obsessives to get their filthy film soaked mitts on the juicy and brilliant films they have in store. We've already been obsessed with the announcements that have come before with Opening Gala A United Kingdom, Closing Gala Free Fire, and American Express Gala Lion. Now we can finally enjoy the plethora of movies that'll illuminate the heart of London on October!
Here is the list of phenomenal events. Seriously, it's like all the most exciting films:
– Damien Chazelle's La La Land is a Headline Gala.
– Nate Park's The Birth of a Nation too features in a Headline Gala.
– Spike Lee's Chi-Raq will helm the Sonic Gala.
– Boxing drama Bleed for This will take prime place at the Thrill Gala.
– The Informer features as part of the BFI National Archive Restoration.
– Queen of Katwe screens as part of the Virgin Atlantic Gala and stars David Oyelowo and Lupita Nyong'o.
– British Comedy Their Finest screens as part of the Mayor of London Gala and features Gemma Arterton and Bill Nighy.
– Denis Villeneuve's space romp Arrival features as part of the RBC Gala
– Debate Gala will feature Nocturama.
– Andrea Arnold's American Honey is BFI's Festival Special Presentation.
– The Mayfair Hotel Gala will be Liam Neeson helmed A Monster Calls.
– Check out the Dare Gala which'll show Park Chan-Wooks' The Handmaiden.
– Mirzya will have prime place at the Love Gala.
– Olivier Stone's biopic thriller starring Joseph Gordan-Levitt – Snowden – takes a Headline Gala.
– Another Headline Gala is Jake Gyllenhaal and Amy Adams drama Nocturnal Animals.
– Ava DuVarney's The 13th has a Documentary Special Presentation in association with Time Out London.
– Xavier Dolan's It's Only the End of the World is the BFI Flare Special Presentation.
– Manchester by the Sea will light up screens as a Headline Gala.
On top of this, a new venue has been erected for London Film Festival and is nestled in the heart of Victoria Embankment Gardens.
In official competiton: Brimstone, Certain Women, Clash, Elle, Frantz, Goldstone, Layla M., Moonlight, Neruda, A Quiet Passion, Una, and Your Name.
First Feature Competition: Chameleon, A Date for Mad Mary, Lady Macbeth, The Levelling, My Life as a Courgette, Playground, Port, Raw, What's in the Darkness, Wulu.
BFI LONDON FILM FESTIVAL SCREENS 5th to 12th OCTOBER


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By Anonymous - / Tuesday 11 August 2009 15:33 / United States
Add a comment - Reply to : #
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Top comments
By BadLuckTuck | 0
If it was 10 ft. away, wouldn't your house catch on fire? Obvious YDI is obvious, by the way.
metalguitardv8 | 0
K i'm new to this whole fml stuff. what does YDI mean?
BadLuckTuck | 0
You Deserve It.
crazy_cat_lady24 | 0
Why the fuck do so many people vote YDI on this? How could he have known this? And also, it's not like you've never been lazy in your life. How does someone who's a bit too lazy to pick up his clothes that day deserve to have them all burned?
BadLuckTuck | 0
#41--It's called "Fire spreads quickly"...douche.
Sca24 | 0
Well I got one for you.. I posted the story and there's a driveway between my house and the apartment complex / dry cleaner.. So unless you thought my house was dowsed in gasoline it would have been impossible for the fire to spread while firemen were spraying it down. What do have for me now smart ass?
logieebearr | 0
karmas a bitch lol
UnluckyDom | 0
12, FML - Fuck my life FYL - Fuck your life YDI - You deserved/did it
By ananamoose | 0
Haha bro, was it worth it? bet not, now your sitting there thinking, if i had moved three minutes ago i could have saved my clothes, i bet you set it on fire just so you could post it on fml. didn't you? DIDNT YOU!!!!!
By donkey_hang_down | 2
At least you dont have to pay for them since you pay when you pick up. YDI you lazy fuck
By americayay | 0
You are really lucky your house wasn't included. I've suffered a housefire, and I promise it's a worse day. Hopefully, though, you'll get some kind of compensation.
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Build an Online Store
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These pages are a resource for members of the media looking to learn more about Salford Group and our products and services. Through the "Ag News" link we also provide interesting articles related to agriculture and/or Salford products. Access current and archived news releases, background information about the organization, photos of some of our products and more. Please feel free to follow-up with our media contact.
Anson Boak
Salford Group Inc.
519-485-3977 ext. 175
Company News
(Salford, Ontario) –Salford Group, a global leader in the manufacturing of tillage, seeding, and fertilizer application equipment, is bringing a whole new level of choice to the fertilizer application market through its acquisition of Valmar Airflo, Inc., a leading manufacturer of seeding and granular application equipment for the agricultural industry.
Recent press releases
February 10, 2016 (Salford, ON) Salford Group, an emerging global power in the farm equipment sector, announces the launch of its new website and unified subsidiary branding in time for the 2016 National Farm Machinery Show.
December 11, 2015 (Salford, Ontario) –Salford Group, a global leader in the manufacturing of tillage, seeding, and fertilizer application equipment, is expanding its tillage product line through the acquisition of AerWay advanced aeration products, manufactured by SAF-HOLLAND Canada Ltd.
Product News
Salford's Valmar 55 series line of seeders excel at cover crop application. The 55 series tools quickly and
accurately meter a variety of seed and granular product sizes at a range of rates suited for cover crop
seeding. The 55 Series seeders are best known for their value, versatility, and adaptability.
Salford's new Valmar 246 Pull-Type Granular Applicator for herbicides and seeds takes all the best features of the original 245 and marries it with more capacity and finer sectional control to increase efficiency and reduce input costs, making farmers' lives easier along the way.
The new Valmar 246 hopper size increases the capacity of the machine by 50% over the Valmar 245 to a total capacity of 60 cu. ft. This means farmers can cover even more acres between fills. Four meters on the 246 enables finer sectional control, allowing farmers to manually shut the machine down to ¼ the 60 ft. boom which saves both input costs and the environment.
February 10, 2016 (Salford, ON) – Salford Group, a leading manufacturer of fertilizer application equipment, is unveiling its three point mount for its Valmar 55 series granular applicators for herbicides and cover crops at the 2016 National Farm Machinery Show.
February 10, 2016 (Salford, ON) – Salford Group is proud to announce an addition to the Salford Valmar 8600 Series, the largest pull-type pneumatic applicators on the market.
The BBI section control option will be making its debut at the 2016 National Farm Machinery Show in Louisville, KY. The section control option is able to turn off either side of the spreader in areas where fertilizer has already been applied. In Louisville, the section control option will be on display with Salford BBI's newest model, the BBI Javelin.
(Osceola, IA) – Salford continues to expand its product offering, making the most of its new equipment divisions, BBI Spreaders and Valmar Application. The new PathFinder, available for fall 2015 and displayed for the first time last week at the Midwest Ag Industries Exposition, is formally launching at Farm Progress Show 2015.
The winter ag show season comes to a conclusion as Salford territory managers Scott Ousdahl and Glenn Herperger team up with service manager Mitch Miller to make their way to beautiful Grande Prairie, Alberta for the Peace Country Classic Agri-Show.
There's no rest for the Salford Group team, as Henk Klyn and Fraser Hetherington say goodbye to London and hello to Ottawa for the 89th Ottawa Valley Farm Show.
Held annually at Ottawa's EY Centre, this year's event runs from March 8-10.
March is here, and the winter trade show season sees the Salford Group head to Ontario for eastern Canada's largest indoor spring event in agriculture, the London Farm Show.
Held annually in London's Western Fair District, the 2016 London Farm Show will run from March 2-4. Thousands of producers from across eastern Canada will enjoy seeing the benefits of equipment, technology, and services from more than 370 exhibitors over 290,000 square feet.
The 55th annual edition of the Western Farm Show, running from February 26-28, features more than 500 exhibitors in 400,000 square feet of exhibit space.
After a blockbuster National Farm Machinery Show in Louisville, the Salford team is keeping the ag show momentum going. This week, Phill Doty, the company's territory manager for the northeastern United States, heads to Syracuse for the New York Farm Show (NYFS).
Look out, Louisville—the Salford team is on its way to the National Farm Machinery Show!
Held annually at the Kentucky Exposition Center, this year's National Farm Machinery Show will run from February 10-13. Visitors will have access to the most innovative new products and technology available to agribusiness professionals today.
Salford Group territory sales manager Brian Rawson and U.S. Sales Director Lee Kilpatrick have Carolina in their minds as they head to Raleigh for the annual Southern Farm Show.
Held annually at the North Carolina State Fairgrounds, this year's event runs from February 3-5. The Southern Farm Show is the largest agricultural exposition in the Carolinas and Virginia.
February is an important time in the winter trade show season, and the Salford Group team is kicking off the month in style as they roll to the Hawkeye State. Territory managers Greg Mueller, Jason Hinners, and David Shearer are heading to the third largest indoor ag show in the U.S., the Iowa Power Farming Show.
Held annually at the Iowa Events Center in Des Moines, the Iowa Power Farming Show will run from February 2-4.
Southwest territory manager Brian Hobson is back in the saddle, taking multiple Salford Group machines to January's North Louisiana Ag Expo.
Held annually at West Monroe's Ike Hamilton Expo Center, this year's expo runs from January 15-16.
It's very early in the New Year, and the Salford Group crew is already taking its efforts into high gear on the agriculture show circuit. Next week sees the team make key stops in the southeastern United States and Western Canada.
Ag News
Salford Group, a leading manufacturer of innovative tillage, seeding and fertilizer equipment is launching a series of application tools aimed specifically at ag retailers in North America.
February is an important time in the winter trade show season, and the Salford Group team is kicking off the month in style as they roll to the Hawkeye State. Territory managers Greg Mueller, Jason Hinners, and David Shearer are heading to the third largest indoor ag show in the U.S., the Iowa Power Farming Show.
Held annually at the Iowa Events Center in Des Moines, the Iowa Power Farming Show will run from February 2-4.
The Salford Group is expanding again. This time the Ontario-based tillage, seeding and fertilizer application company has purchased AerWay, well known to farmers for its soil aeration products.
Salford Chief Executive Officer Geof Gray says the AerWay acquisition from SAF-HOLLAND Canada Ltd allows the company to "expand our niche tillage product line-up to offer more vertical tillage and pastureland management tools that appeal to our livestock and mixed farming customers." Both companies focus on innovative designs and create tools with multi-use capabilities, emphasize soil productivity and management as well as vertical tillage, Gray notes.
REGINA — At 70 feet wide, the new Salford independent, double disc drill mixes what the company thinks is the best of planter and seeder technology.
"Disc drills have some real advantages in western conditions," said Mark Van Veen of Salford.
"They let you keep your stubble, but if you want that black line for quick warming of the soil in the northern grain belt, you can have that too."
The new model 525 drill was an evolution of the company's line of disc tillage and seeding equipment said Van Veen.
Photo Gallery
For high resolution images please contact Salford marketing at 1-866-442-1293 or email@example.com


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This is a 'working' document, and will be constantly updated.
The Versus Apps utilize advanced 3D graphics and Bluetooth LE streaming capabilities that push the limits of what iOS devices are capable of.
Due to the advanced nature of the apps, only the devices listed below running iOS 10 and up with 1gb of free memory are supported.
We currently Do Not support the Original iPad, the iPad2, or the 1st generation iPad Mini.
Supported iOS Devices:
- Use the list below, and check on the Back of your iOS device to see if it is a supported model.
iPad Mini:
- iPad Mini 2: Models include A1489(Wi-Fi), A1490(4G)
- iPad Mini 3: Models include A1599(Wi-Fi), A1600(4G)
- iPad 3rd Generation: Models include A1416(Wi-Fi), A1430(4G), A1403(4G VZ)
- iPad 4th Generation: Models include A1458(Wi-Fi), A1459(4G), A1460(4GMM)
iPad Air:
- iPad Air 5th generation: Models include A1474(Wi-Fi), A1475(4G)
- iPad Air2 6th Generation: Models include A1566(Wi-Fi), A1667(4G)
- iPhone 4S
- iPhone 5
- iPhone 5C
- iPhone 5S
- iPhone 6
- iPhone 6 Plus
iPod Touch:
- iPod Touch 5th Generation: Models A1509, A1421
- iPod Touch 6th Generation: Models A1574
You can find a full listing of iPad models and specifications here: https://www.apple.com/ipad/compare/#comparison-chart
You can find a full listing of iPhone models and specifications here: https://www.apple.com/iphone/compare/#comparison-chart
You can find a full listing of iPod Touch models and specifications
here: https://support.apple.com/en-us/HT204217


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Font Awesome icon usage statistics
Font Awesome information of CHUCKANDERSON.US in detail
- 0 types of Font Awesome iconic font are used and found 0 times in total.
- CHUCKANDERSON.US used 0 Font Awesome classes per each class in average.
- Font Awesome usage statistics of CHUCKANDERSON.US are based on first landing page and within top 1M websites only. Click the font icon to see all websites using it.
- CHUCKANDERSON.US includes "http://netdna.bootstrapcdn.com/font-awesome/4.2.0/css/font-awesome.min.css?2&ver=4.2.0" to use Font Awesome and information from CSS is like below.
/*! * Font Awesome 4.2.0 by @davegandy - http://fontawesome.io - @fontawesome * License - http://fontawesome.io/license (Font: SIL OFL 1.1, CSS: MIT License) */


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Trend Forecaster Sues Google Over Blogs' Use Of IP
Celente claims that co-defendant David Chekroun, who operates http://geraldcelentechannel.blogspot.com, and other bloggers who use his name in their domains do so without his authorization. The blogs contain inaccurate, malicious and sometimes offensive content, which viewers confuse as Celente's content due to the fact that his...
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This song kind-of sums up what this project is about —
And many of those whose bodies lie dead and buried will rise up, some to everlasting life and some to shame and everlasting contempt.
— Daniel !2:2
Had a dream
Stars would shine
Forever bright
Devil's zombies
Rule the night
Evil spell?
Well, Daniel?
The dead
Stand upright
The head
Forever bright
It's the devil
In you
It's the devil in me
It's the D evil
I tell you
Me, too
Daniel's dream
Shine like a beam
Daniel's dream
Now it's seen
Here is a lo-fi demo of the song. It is one of my favorite cuts for this album. As with most of the songs, it is an extemporaneous recording.


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I'm absolutely obsessed with my chef knife. Not only has it been recommended by many people, it is a professional chef knife anyone would never regret to own. The chef knife that I'm talking about is the Wusthof Classic 8-Inch. I would be really happy if you give this knife a try as I have not look for another chef knife in almost 5 years already.
What I Like
What I really like about the knife is that it has a razor sharp edge that can last for a long time without honing or sharpening it. In the past five years, I've only sharpened them about three times at the local sharpening service. It also rust resistant. Sometimes, I forget to dry my knife after washing. Thankfully, the knife's blade is still in perfect condition and there is no presence of rust at all.
The handles on this knife is also very comfortable to hold on. Imagine peeling through a sack of potatoes without suffering from wrist tension after. I also like the fact that the blade is attached to the handle. It's much more hygienic. My grandmother loves using my chef knife as she said it gets the job done faster and it doesn't take much moves to get what she wants. The knife feels well balanced and I think the full bolster helps it achieve this. The knife also won't feel like it's going to fly out of your hands.
The Features Of The Wusthof Classic Knife
Wusthof Classic knives are just that, a classic. They are known among professional chefs as the Cadillac of kitchen knives. That's right, the best knife of the best knives. They have the right amount of heft, a blade that can't be beaten, a bolster for excellent balance, and a very comfortable handle. Let us dive into this line of knives a little deeper.
The blade of a Wusthof Classic knife is forged from a single blade of stainless steel. Immediately out of the box, the blade may be duller than what you may have thought, but expect this with Wusthof knives. Sharpen the knife to your liking and you will be amazed at not only how sharp the knife can get, but also how long the blade stays sharp.
Perfectly Designed Knife
The bolster allows professional chefs and home cooks alike to get a firm grip on the knife with your thumb and index finger in front of the bolster. This grip allows precise chopping, dicing, and slicing. The handle is ergonomically triple-riveted and slip resistant. Most people find this handle extremely comfortable in their hands.
High Recommendation
I'm really thankful that this chef knife also comes with a lifetime warranty that is great because for the price that I paid, I would be devastated if I had to buy another. This knife is sharp, handle-friendly as well as easy to maintain. What more could you ask for? As I have mentioned above, check out the Wusthof Classic 8-Inch Chef Knife.