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S&P Downgrades U.S. Credit Rating: What's Happening Right Now With Your Money
Aired August 6, 2011 - 13:00 ET
ALI VELSHI, HOST: S&P has downgraded America's AAA credit rating. No matter where you turn in this economy - your job, your savings - only one thing seems to be clear - America is facing an uncertain economic future. Welcome to a special live edition of YOUR MONEY. I'm Ali Velshi. This next hour is dedicated to setting aside the panic and giving you a straightforward look at what is happening right now with your money. Let's start with Ken Rogoff. He's a former chief economist for the International Monetary Fund. He's a professor at Harvard University. Christine Romans is the host of "YOUR BOTTOM LINE." And Chrystia Freeland, joining us momentarily, is an editor at Thomson Reuters Digital. Ken (INAUDIBLE) Ken, let's start with you. Tell us what this means. S&P said it may downgrade the United States, and it did it. It took us from AAA to AA-plus. What does that mean? KEN ROGOFF, FMR. CHIEF ECONOMIST, IMF: Well, it's a huge thing. This hasn't happened in the history of the United States. We've defaulted maybe in 1933, but you know, since they started having the rating agencies, this hasn't happened. And it's pretty shocking. So my concern is not so much the professional investors, but what about the man on the street? Are they going to panic about this? Is there going to be some broader effect that we don't expect? VELSHI: And what do you think about that? What do you think? Because it's hard to make that connection. It's hard to tell people who are watching us right now that your credit card rates are definitely going up or your mortgage rates are definitely going up. We're not entirely certain what's going to happen, are we. ROGOFF: No. No, no. Absolutely not. Right now, with what's happening with the stock market, AA-plus looks pretty good. I mean, people still want to be in Treasuries. I don't think they're going to necessarily be rushing into the stock market and out of Treasuries because of this. But it definitely -- as (ph) this thing plays out, the U.S. government has been the line in the sand. They've been the one who put their foot down and say, We're going to back the banks, you can be sure of your bank account, you can be sure of our credit. And look, this isn't the end of the world. It's AA-plus. That's still a really high grade. But it's disconcerting in the middle of the crisis as it's deepening. VELSHI: The full faith and credit, Christine, of the U.S. government -- it's an expression that's been used forever. It's not that this was entirely unexpected. I almost think what was unexpected was the reaction out of Washington from all sides last night. Everybody was looking for someone to blame. And no one looked inward and said, What do we do to fix this to get back on top. CHRISTINE ROMANS, HOST, CNN'S "YOUR BOTTOM LINE": You know, I think you could have had a big rally in the stock market on Monday if you had had the president and you had leaders of both parties in Congress and all of the presidential candidates from the GOP all come out and say, We hear you. We're going to get our problems under control. We have now -- we are now looking beyond politics and our individual ideologies and we're going to get this fixed. We're going to cut more in a very strategic and thoughtful way. America is still the economic superpower. We're going to act like it. Now, that's obviously pretty Pollyanna, right, of me to think that. But I'm telling you that they all reverted back to what S&P was complaining about in the first place, acrimony that leads global investors and people like S&P to think the U.S. doesn't have its act together enough politically to be able to deserve a AA and to be able to get some pretty significant fiscal problems in order. So you have really, I think, Ali, an extension of the behavior that got us here. It's continuing right now. I'm worried about treacherous markets and politics until December 23rd, when that super- committee has to agree on another $1.5 trillion in cuts, Ali. VELSHI: Chrystia, let's talk about this for a second. We really have two things that could have gotten us here. One is real budgetary problems, which we've got in the United States, and frankly, we've got in much of the developing (SIC) world. And then we've got this concern that S&P outlined, and that is that a AAA-rated country, the best-rated countries in the world should be separating their budget process, which is very important, from their debt authorization process, the actual discussion about paying their bills. And S&P seemed concerned with that very behavior that Christine is talking about. CHRYSTIA FREELAND, EDITOR, THOMSON REUTERS DIGITAL: Yes. You're absolutely right, Ali. I mean, S&P pointed to two things. One of them was this really unusual structural element of how the U.S. works -- I think that Denmark is the only other Western industrialized country that works this way -- where the people who -- the process whereby you decide your budget, how much you're going to spend, and therefore how much you're going to tax and how much you will borrow, is separate from the process where you authorize how much the country is allowed to borrow. And that's why we had these debt ceiling antics over the summer, which were really actually structurally institutionally separate from the actual decisions about the budget. I think the S&P quite rightly said, You know, this is no way to run a country. And this means that the United States is set up for repetitions of the battle that we just had, which was really -- you know, it was a political "own goal." We didn't have a situation in the United States, which countries often face when they're running into fiscal problems, that it's the market saying, Come on, guys, get your act together, otherwise you're in trouble. The problems of this summer were a political own goal. They were structurally created. And that's something, Ali, that I think the S&P pointed to as saying, you know, this is a weakness going forward. VELSHI: I want to ask you, Ken -- we're going to speak to Mohamed El- Erian of PIMCO a little later on in the show. One of the issues here is that there are other AAA-rated countries in the world. There are countries where you can get more money -- more higher interest for lending that country money than you can the United States. But frankly, they don't have enough debt lying around there to really replace the United States as this safe bet. Do you think the United States today is a riskier bet than it was yesterday? And by the way, that's that list of countries that are rated AAA by Moody's and S&P. You can see the United States no longer on that list. What do you think, Ken? ROGOFF: Well, I think what happened over the summer was pretty frightening. And our Constitution -- we look like the Italian parliament. I mean, that's how countries get into trouble because they can't govern themselves properly. So we look riskier from that. But also, Ali, the data's gotten worse. We're slipping back into slower growth. People were counting on fast growth to just sort of get our way out of this. And then, well, your political system doesn't work perfectly, it doesn't matter. So it is riskier because difficult decisions need to be made. We are not going to get out of this quickly. The stock market's fallen dramatically. The economy's slowed. There are some tough decisions, and it could affect inflation, for example, which is something S&P takes into account. If there's going to be high inflation that makes your bonds worth less, that counts, too. So it does feel riskier. There's no doubt about that. VELSHI: All right, we have two very specific issues that we have to deal with, growth in this country, getting it back on track, and getting this AAA rating back. How are we going to do that? How do we get growth in this country? We've got some solutions. I want to take a quick break. We're going to come back with this fantastic panel and we're going to discuss how we actually get solutions, how we get back on track economically and how we get our AAA rating back. You're watching a special live edition of YOUR MONEY right here on CNN. (COMMERCIAL BREAK) VELSHI: OK, late yesterday, we had a downgrade by the S&P of the U.S. credit rating, the sovereign debt of the United States, which has been AAA since 1917, since it was first rated by Moody's. Now, Moody's and Fitch, the other two big rating agencies, are keeping the U.S. at its AAA rating. S&P has downgraded it. Now, here's something to consider. There are four companies in the United States that have a AAA rating. Those four companies are -- where are they? -- ADP -- Automated Data Processing -- Johnson & Johnson, ExxonMobil and Microsoft. And some have wondered what happens to those companies. Can a company have a higher credit rating than the country in which it exists? I asked S&P's John Branch (SIC) -- he's the head of sovereign debt rating for S&P -- about how this affects those companies and your mutual funds or your pension funds, if they invest in those companies. Here's what he told me. (BEGIN VIDEOTAPE) JOHN CHAMBERS, STANDARD & POOR'S MANAGING DIRECTOR: The U.S. corporations, I think there are four of them -- VELSHI: Yes. CHAMBERS: -- they are not affected by this directly. In terms of other people who might be -- have portfolios that have AAA restrictions, and the U.S. being downgraded, will that have an impact on them -- we've spoken to a number of investors about that. They think that the impact will be pretty minimal. They don't think that there'll be massive forced selling because of this. (END VIDEOTAPE) VELSHI: Christine Romans joins me now. Christine, markets will open again, Asian markets will open 8:00 PM Eastern time on Sunday night, and we'll have our markets on Monday. What a week we've had. A lot of people, a lot of our viewers out there would like to know what this means for investors when markets open on Sunday night and Monday. What do you think? ROMANS: It's absolutely impossible to know, to be really honest with you, because you might ironically have huge safe haven buying into the Treasury market, pushing yields even lower. So you're hearing a lot of people talk about how higher interest rates are coming, it is inevitable. That could be a long time off if, indeed, you still have the U.S., the biggest, most liquid debt market in the world -- that's where everybody wants to go. You know, I've learned a long time ago, Ali, 15 years of covering crises, that you do not predict how the stock market's going to react. Remember, the stock market is half the size of the bond market. Currency markets are huge, as well. We'll be looking for all -- commodities markets -- all of these interact. And we won't know until Sunday night. Now, one thing I can tell you is that our biggest investor is out there scorning and chastising us, our biggest foreign investor, I should say, China, a commentary on Xinhua -- it's a news agency -- saying that the United States -- scorning it for its debt addiction, for short-sighted political wrangling and warning us that the good old days of borrowing in America are over, using it as a new reason to call for a global reserve currency that is not the U.S. dollar, Ali. So a little bit of political tension there, not necessarily that surprising. But remember, China is the biggest foreign investor of U.S. Treasuries, Ali. VELSHI: You know, Ken, Christine makes a very interesting point here, and that is the U.S. Treasuries continue to be a safe haven. In other words, for all the turmoil that's going on out there and for all the risky markets in the world, whether you want to buy their bonds or stocks, U.S. Treasuries, even downgraded, might still be a better bet, and you might actually see yields or interest rates going down, as opposed to up. Do you think that's possible? ROGOFF: That's absolutely possible, Ali. I mean, where are you going to go? It's not easy to know right now where to put your money. The stock market is very volatile. Are you going to go to Europe with your money? That's very volatile. There's only so much gold, and that's very -- has lots of its own risk. You certainly -- the Chinese going to put their money in China all of a sudden, instead of the United States? I don't think there'll be a dramatic effect. But this is a very fragile moment. There's a lot of emotion. There's a lot of tension. And the biggest crisis right now, the biggest crisis is in the leadership in Europe, in the United States, and the public is losing confidence. This underscores it. And that's going to make it harder to do the right things and to contain the problems, which we're going to have one way or the other. VELSHI: Chrystia, Christine had said earlier, you know, the only way you might get rally, a really clear rally on Monday, is if everybody involved in the political bickering were to come together and say, Wow, this is serious, this is a real message, let's get it together and let's figure out how we get our AAA credit rating back. And she's actually getting a lot of tweets. Christine is getting tweets. Chrystia, I want to ask you, what do you think about that? I think Christine and Ken are both agreeing leadership is as much of a problem here as budget deficits are. FREELAND: I think that's absolutely right. And what was really interesting about the S&P rationale is, actually, they pointed much more to political issues, really, than underlying economic ones. I think at heart, this decision by them was really a political -- a verdict on dysfunctional politics as much as it was on a fiscal situation which needs to be resolved. What I think, though, is worrying and the reason why the scenario that Christine painted very eloquently, alas, I think is highly unlikely, is that we are already seeing in the reaction this morning and on Friday night that the really big ideological divide remains. So you've had Democrats pointing very strongly to S&P's point about revenue and the S&P saying, You know what? If you'd just let those Bush tax cuts lapse, that would be a very big step towards a solution. Meanwhile, you've had the Republicans pointing to the idea that, Look, the S&P is saying that the budget deficit is the core problem. That's what we've been saying. We've been right. All those Democrats who are talking about job creation, maybe more stimulus, focusing on growth, they're wrong. So it seems to me that the ideological divide -- and I think this is really about ideology, it's not just about rhetoric -- remains, and it's a very deep one in America today. VELSHI: All right, Ken, stick around. We're going to be listening to Mohamed El-Erian from PIMCO a little later on. They're very involved in bonds. We'll come back to Ken Rogoff. Chrystia, thanks so much for that great analysis. Christine, I think you should start a campaign for people to get their elected officials to come together on this one and try and fix it up. One of the biggest concerns out there is jobs. There are actually sectors that are hiring. We're going to tell you which employers are looking to hire next on YOUR MONEY. (COMMERCIAL BREAK) VELSHI: The U.S. economy added a better-than-expected 117,000 jobs in July. We're going to give you some sectors that are hiring and tell you where those jobs are. Ted Gilliam is the CEO of Adecco. If anybody knows what jobs are in demand, it is this man. He heads the world's biggest temporary placement firm and -- and recruiting firm. Tig (ph), who is hiring right now? TED GILLIAM, CEO ADECCO: We got hiring in manufacturing, in retail. The retail one, frankly, is a bit of a surprise, given the level of consumer confidence. So I think that's a very good sign. And then, of course, in health care. Health care has carried us through the recession, and we saw another month of strong job growth in health care. VELSHI: This is an industry, health care, we've seen an average of 24,000 jobs a month created in this. Do you -- do you work in that part of the business, your company place people in health care? Where are you seeing the jobs? GILLIAM: We absolutely do. Our Soliance (ph) business places doctors, nurses and bilingual speech therapists -- VELSHI: Wow. GILLIAM: -- pharmacists, all kinds of skills categories in the health care sector. It's been a very turbulent sector, but it's been a growing sector over the course of this recession. VELSHI: Help me out understanding the role of temporary job hiring in a recovery. Typically, in past recessions, we used to see the recession end and you'd see temporary job hiring until companies decided what to do and what kind of staffing levels they want, and then they would translate into permanent jobs. Is that still the case? GILLIAM: Well, there is this normal recessionary and recovery process that occurs in temp, where employers come back in the marketplace, they need resources, but they want flexibility. And they do that by employing temp and contract workers first. I think that's part of the recovery. But also, we're seeing more of a fundamental change. This recession was so tough, companies are very much more focused on flexibility going forward. And I think they're going to look increasingly for flexible working environments in the economy as we get this recovery going. VELSHI: Tig, you get paid by companies that want you to find workers for them. So you talk to the CEOs of companies that are hiring or potentially hiring. We keep discussing endlessly what companies need to hear or see or experience from the government in order to hire. What is it? GILLIAM: Well, first and foremost, companies that are hiring are those that see good prospects for their business in the near term and have already reached the level of capacity that they have with their current workforce. The best place to be from a skill set perspective is in IT, engineering and finance. Those are by far the strongest skill sets, and it's the area where the labor supply is the thinnest. VELSHI: OK. GILLIAM: So we're really looking at more like a 4 percent unemployment rate in those skill sets, as opposed to the 9.1 average. VELSHI: Let's talk about the skills that workers come in with, the workers that you place in these jobs. What do you see -- if somebody's watching this saying, I'm ready to make a switch into something, what would you tell them they should do? GILLIAM: Well, I'd go back to those professional skill categories as the best sectors to focus on if you're looking at building your education. In terms of the job search, most of the permanent jobs that are being added today are coming from temporary and contract assignments. So what I'd say is, in your search process, don't be afraid to step out and engage on a temporary contract basis. Use that as an opportunity to prove your skills and prove the value you can bring to the organization. And that can very well be the best path to a new permanent job. VELSHI: Explain that to me a little bit more. If I'm coming to CNN and there's a staff job there, or maybe there isn't, and I'm applying for it, they maybe are not sure they want to hire me or the work's not fully there. How do I then become a contract worker? GILLIAM: Well, in many cases, you can just make the offer. A candidate is say, Look, I know you're looking for a permanent position, and that's great. If there's a permanent position, I'd like that. However, if you're uncertain about making that decision today, I'm happy to work with you on a contract basis for the next six months, and we'll get to know each other and get a chance to work together. And we're finding that's a good strategy to use. And in fact, we have many of our clients coming to us and say, Look, I need some resources, but I don't want to go the permanent route yet. Can you get me someone that can work with me for the next six months, and let's see how it goes? And that's a great avenue to pursue. VELSHI: Let's talk a little bit about the difference between the behavior of large companies and small businesses in the U.S. with respect to hiring right now. GILLIAM: This is a great point, Ali. What happens in the U.S., we have about 2 percent of the companies that are large companies that hire half the workforce. Ninety-eight percent of the companies in the U.S. have less than 1,000 employees, and they hire the other half of the U.S. workforce. The job growth we've seen so far in this recovery has been with the large companies. And this is where I think we come back to public policy and some incentives to really help those small and mid-sized companies get back in hiring mode and to hire here locally in the U.S. VELSHI: Tig, all we hear about and read about is people saying what we have to do about the jobs and where the jobs are. You actually know it. Such a pleasure to get all this granular information from you. Tig Gilliam is the CEO of Adecco. All right, we've got a debt ceiling deal, now we can deal with our real economic problems. Can Congress and the president still be part of the solution? (COMMERCIAL BREAK) VELSHI: The future of our economic recovery is clearly uncertain. One day we see the Dow down more than 500 points. The next day, we get a better-than-expected jobs report. What does this all mean? Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman wrote in an op-ed in "The New York Times," quote, "Those plunging interest rates and stock prices say that the markets aren't worried about either U.S. solvency or inflation, they're worried about U.S. lack of growth." When Krugman refers to a lack of growth, let me show you what he is talking about. GDP growth -- that's how we measure. It's the biggest measure of the economy. Well, we found out just over a week ago that GDP growth -- look over on the side of your screen, on the right side -- for this quarter -- for the second quarter of the year was 1.3 percent. That's lower than we expected. Look at the first quarter, 0.4 percent. Those bar graphs should be getting bigger every quarter, not getting smaller and not dodging around. That's the problem. Diane Swonk is the chief economist at Mesirow Financial. Diane, let's talk about what has to happen to spur meaningful economic growth in the United States. Can you create economic growth with policies, for instance? DIANE SWONK, CHIEF ECONOMIST, MESIROW FINANCIAL: Well, we've certainly seen if there was any silver bullet to shoot on that front, it would have been shot already. And so there is no silver bullet. In the wake of the financial crisis, we shot a lot of bullets, and we've stemmed the hemorrhaging that the economy went through during the recession, but we've been unable to really get momentum going. That's very characteristic of a post-crisis kind of recovery, and that's what we're in. It's one thing to know that that's coming, it's another thing to live it because living it has been absolutely miserable. VELSHI: No kidding. And then this last week, Diane, we started to feel things that we had felt three years ago, and I don't think any of us needed to relive that. We don't need these -- these big shocks. Stephen Moore is the editorial writer for "The Wall Street Journal." Stephen, we saw the Bush tax cuts extended in December of 2010. Generally speaking, taxes remain low. But this recovery is not taking hold. Why do some argue that lowering taxes, thereby reducing government revenue, would actually boost the economy? STEPHEN MOORE, EDITORIAL WRITER, "WALL STREET JOURNAL": Well, first of all, Ali, the reason that tax revenues are so low right now -- and you're right, you know, we are only getting about 15 percent of GDP in taxes and we're spending 24 percent of GDP. So that's the big deficit gap. The main reason that we're seeing that drought in revenues is because the economy is not growing. And it's strange, Ali, because I find myself in some agreement with Paul Krugman. The problem right now is growth. The economy isn't growing. We're not generating jobs. And Ali, if people aren't working, they don't pay taxes, right? And so we do need to get to a growth program. It's just that Paul Krugman and I probably couldn't disagree more about what to do about it. VELSHI: About how you get there. MOORE: Let me just say one last thing. VELSHI: Yes. MOORE: If you read my column in Friday's "Wall Street Journal," what I talk about is, you know, the time might be right for a grand deal to do a tax reform that lowers tax rates, broadens the base, gets rid of all the pollution in the tax system. I think that's something that could generate -- VELSHI: I'll tell you, I did read it. I read it very early on Friday morning. And I thought to myself, I'm not really going to bring up the topic of Congress getting a grand deal on tax reform on this show, because my viewer will click the remote. And say, that knucklehead is a knucklehead. Do you think it's possible? MOORE: I really do. You know, what because if you read the column you'll see, in 1986, everybody said it couldn't be done. You can't take on the special interest groups. One of the points I make, Ali, that you'll like is this is the way for Barack Obama to save his presidency. VELSHI: It's possible. MOORE: I really believe so. VELSHI: I think the left and the right both agree on the fact that -- I don't know what reform we all want, but that reform in taxes is necessary. The debt ceiling deal meant that a potential crisis was averted. But there was optimism that it could mean a lot more than that. Listen. (BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) BARACK OBAMA, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: The sooner we get this done, the sooner that the markets know that the debt limit ceiling will have been raised and that we have a serious plan to deal with our debt and deficit, the sooner that we give our businesses the certainty they will need in order to make additional investments to grow and to hire. (END VIDEO CLIP) VELSHI: Interesting. So the president back on July 8th, by the way, a month ago, was arguing that closing this deal will give more certainty to businesses and allow them to start hiring. Norm Ornstein is a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute. Norm, the celebration over the debt ceiling was remarkably short- lived, at least as far as markets were concerned. What policy tools do Congress and the president have left to spur this economy notwithstanding what Peter suggested, a grand deal on tax reform. What else do they have? NORM ORNSTEIN, RESIDENT SCHOLAR, AEI: It was more like a wake. I'm afraid one part of the disappointment in the deal was that some of the tools that were there, pitifully weak ones. But, for example extending the payroll tax cuts, or maybe including an infrastructure bank, that could be funded without necessarily using many federal dollars, simply weren't a part of this deal. I continue to be worried that even though the spending cuts are going to be relatively limited in this next year, this is just not a time to be doing that. So you hope that when we get beyond this phase in August and Congress comes back, they'll start to focus more on some of the limited things that government can do. And that does include moving towards, in this super committee, possibly a grand bargain that includes tax reform. But you'd have to be a super optimist to believe that we'll move rapidly in that direction. VELSHI: Let's ask Diane. You started by saying if there were a silver bullet, it would have been shot at this point. There are two things that come up constantly. Norm just mentioned-well, it is three. Let's take tax cuts. Norm just mentioned payroll tax cut. And the third one is this QE2 that sometimes gets talked about, the idea of more quantitative easing. The Federal Reserve putting lots and lots of money into the economy to stimulate it. Give me your evaluation as an economist. DIANE SWONK, CHIEF ECONOMIST, MESIROW FINANCIAL: Well, all those issues that we've just talked about are valid issues. I do think we probably will get an extension in the payroll tax cut in 2012. It's just a very bad time not to do that. But that's on the margin, as Norm mentioned. I mean, these are all marginal tools. I do agree with Steve that tax reform, fundamental tax reform, in the longer haul could get us to a better, more competitive plain in terms of dealing with both our deficit and our competiveness globally. That said, I am not the super optimist. I listen to Norm a lot. And I believe him and think highly of him. And I'm disappointed, more than disappointed, with our ability to come up with these. I do also think it is really important to think about-you know, in terms of the Federal Reserve, this is putting a lot of weight on the shoulders of central banks around the world. VELSHI: Sure. SWONK: The European Central Bank, disappointed this week by buying- VELSHI: And look what happened. SWONK: Italian bonds. And look what happened, exactly. That helped to trigger the major losses we saw in the market this week. And the reality is that we're running out of tool kits. I think the Fed can do more. And I think they're going to be considering it. Certainly the employment report we saw on Friday helps take some of the burden off the Fed for doing something immediately and a too knee-jerk reaction. But any way you cut it, the Fed, if the European Central Bank, the Fed will likely be pulled into the picture in one way or the other, maybe not QE3. But they will be pulled into the picture because what happens in Europe matters to us in the U.S. And they have to also keep those swap lines open and all these different things we used during the crisis. The weight is still on the shoulders of the central bank to carry this economy. And it's a heavy burden to carry. MOORE: You know what, I'll say this, Diane, if we have a QE3-and I think now there's a real chance of that, given the possibility -- SWONK: There is a chance, yes. MOORE: --how they doubled debt. Ali, this is a money show. I'm buying gold if that's going to happen because, look, you don't create prosperity by printing money. VELSHI: Right. MOORE: We've seen the gold price go from $900 an ounce in January of 2009 to what is it, $1,650 or so, today? We could easily see a $2,000 gold price because people around the world are losing confidence in paper currency, whether it's the euro or the dollar. These politicians thinking they can create growth by printing money. VELSHI: You saw it at the end of the week, gold had even lost a bit of ground. (CROSS TALK) VELSHI: Diane hold that thought for a second. We need to pay our bills here at CNN. We'll take a quick break. We'll be right back. (COMMERCIAL BREAK) VELSHI: We're covering live here on YOUR MONEY the downgrade by S&P of the U.S. sovereign debt. I'm joined now by David Beers. He is the global head of sovereign ratings with S&P. Christine Romans is with me as well. David, good to see you. Thank you for joining us. Tell us, please, for our audience, with a little bit of time between when this happened and now, why Standard & Poor's made the decision to downgrade the United States from its AAA credit rating? DAVID BEERS, GLOBAL HEAD OF SOVEREIGN RATINGS, STANDARD & POOR'S: Sure. Two key reasons, the first is around the uncertainty that we think the political process, as it's playing out, on fiscal policy is creating in the U.S., and the uncertainties about the future direction of fiscal policy. And that's about the difficulty of creating a consensus across the political spectrum about making fiscal policy choices. And the second factor, of course, relates to the agreement that Congress and the administration signed into law earlier this week. We think that the-uh, that package which will either be between $2.1 trillion and $2.4 trillion, on its own, will not do enough to stabilize the rising debt burden of the U.S. government. VELSHI: David, tell me about this discussion that's been going on where the administration says that it pointed out what it calls an error to Standard & Poor's in some calculations. And that S&P said it would go back and look at it and ultimately still made the decision to downgrade the United States. Can you give us some context around that? BEERS: Sure. This is about technical assumptions that the CBO, the Congressional Budget Office, uses in looking at, in its own nonpartisan way, medium-term and long-term fiscal trends in the United States. And they have two sort of baseline sets of assumptions. We were looking at one set of assumptions. We talked to Treasury. And agreed with Treasury that another technical approach of looking at it made sense and we adjusted our projections on that basis, ran it by our rating committee, and concluded that the rating should be cut on the basis of those revised assumptions. VELSHI: So you take issue with the fact that it's an error? BEERS: Well, these are assumptions, these are projections going long into the future. And there are different ways that reasonable people can look at them. And so this was a set of technical issues. It's not a question of who's right or wrong here. VELSHI: All right. My colleague, Christine Romans, I know, wants to ask you something. Christine. CHRISTINE ROMANS, CNN ANCHOR, YOUR BOTTOM LINE: The issue here -- and thanks for joining us this afternoon-the issue here really for you, then, is that even though in the United States we see this big, huge debt ceiling deal, and many people feel like, OK, now finally they've put this behind us. It is not behind us. The national debt continues to grow. Deficits are too big, too big as a size of the American economy, and with the slow growth that we're seeing taken together, that makes the U.S. a slightly riskier investment than it was six months ago. Is that a correct assumption? BEERS: Yes. And I just want to highlight again the fact that by our lights, the political process, as it comes to grips with the fiscal policy issues, we think in and of itself creates a bit of -- a lot of uncertainty, which we think itself is an issue in terms of the rating of the U.S. government. VELSHI: David, I want to ask you this one last thing. When do you think-or what would the U.S. have to do to regain its AAA credit rating? Do you have any guidance on that? BEERS: Well, remember where we are right now. We've lowered the rating one notch to AA-plus. Still a quite high rating, of course, but we have a negative outlook on that rating, which means that in our opinion, the rating could fall again at some time over the next two years depending upon whether there are additional fiscal measures, and how actually the package agreed to this week actually plays out. So at the moment, we uh, our best case scenario doesn't foresee over the next couple of years the U.S. getting back to AAA. But we suppose that if it did -- ROMANS: Do we need (CROSS TALK) BEERS: Sorry? ROMANS: Do we need see- BEERS: Can I just finish? ROMANS: -tax increases or taxes on the table -- Sure, sure, go ahead. BEERS: Can I respond to you question. We think there are two issues here. One is bridging the political divide, whether it's -- and whatever that looks like in terms of the mix of revenues and expenditures, that's where Congress and the administration need to decide. But if we thought, it we had more confidence than we have now that there was going to be a durable political consensus about the choices around fiscal policy, that would give us more confidence about the ability of the government to stabilize the debt burden over the medium term. If those two things happen, yeah, there's a chance sometime in the future the U.S. can go back to AAA. VELSHI: David, thanks for joining me. Appreciate it. We'll continue to follow this story. David Beers is the global head of sovereign ratings for Standard & Poor's. And my colleague Christine Romans. When we come back, we're going to talk to Ken Rogoff, former head of the International Monetary Fund-former chief economist for the International Monetary fund, and Mohamed El-Erian, probably one of the most important bond men in the world. You are watching a special live edition of YOUR MONEY. (COMMERCIAL BREAK) VELSHI: Back with a special live edition of YOUR MONEY, covering the S&P downgrade of U.S. sovereign debt. Ken Rogoff is back with me again. He's a professor at Harvard University and former chief economist for the International Monetary Fund. On the phone is Mohamed El-Erian, he is the CEO of PIMCO, one of the biggest bond dealers in the entire world. They run the biggest bond fund in the entire world. Mohamed, thanks for being with us. I just spoke to David Beers of S&P. I want to get a sense from you, because it is a question a lot of our viewers who may not be involved in the world of bonds and bond ratings, ask me, after what happened in the financial crisis in 2008 and the errors that the major bond rating agencies made, do serious bond buyers and sellers and traders listen to what S&P says? Does this matter? MOHAMED EL-ERIAN, CEO, PIMCO: It does matter, Ali, but not because we invest on the basis of what the rating agencies say. Here at PIMCO, we have our own sovereign credit assessment. We have our own internal ratings. And we make investment decisions based on our own work. However, the rating agencies, who are a record ratings monopoly, are wired into the system. And they are wired into such a way as it gives them enormous influence. So they are reflected in investment guidelines. They are reflected in the way certain people think about risk. And, therefore, we have to pay attention to what other people are going to do based on this downgrade. So strictly speaking, it will not impact how we invest our money, but it does impact how the system responds. VELSHI: It may impact how other people invest. And that will be important to you. Let's take a look. I want to put up a list on our screen of the 15 countries -- used to be 16 by the way, until yesterday -- the 15 countries that enjoy a AAA credit rating from both Moody's and S&P. The United States is no longer on that list. But Australia is, Canada is. Mohamed, these countries pay better yields. Is there some reason why they wouldn't benefit dramatically from this downgrade in U.S. bonds? EL-ERIAN: They will benefit. But it's not going to be dramatic. The U.S. had two thing going for it in addition to being the AAA. It is the reserve currency, so other countries use the dollar. And secondly, it has the deepest and most liquid financial markets, which means other countries outsource their hard-earned savings to be intermediated through the U.S. system. Now none of these other countries on your list is either able or willing to step in for the U.S. They can do something at the margin, but they cannot replace the U.S. That's both the good news and the bad news. It is the good news which means the system will not change radically overnight. Because you cannot replace something with nothing. But it is also bad news because there is an uncertain element to how a global system operates with the AA as a score. VELSHI: So given how plugged in you are to the system, and I just want to remind our viewers who may not be familiar with this, but the international bond market is substantially bigger than the capitalization of the value of the international stock markets. After being whip-sawed this week, Mohamed, many of our viewers were wondering, oh, my god, what happens next week? In the broadest economic sense-I know you are not a stock market prognosticator-but in the broader economic sense, will we wake up Monday with some massive response and reaction to what S&P did on Friday? Or was this, in some quarters, expected enough that the response will be muted? EL-ERIAN: It was expected in some quarters, but it will also come as a shock in others. We're looking at an uncertain and volatile outlook. Certain things I think we know. We know that this is bad news for the U.S. economy. It is a further headwind to growth and job creation. We know that this is going to accelerate lots of questions about the rating agencies themselves. You'll hear the question, who rates the rating agencies? We know that it will put a question mark on other AAA countries, which means there will be concern about Europe. So which ever way you look it a, the risk premium in the market is going to go up. And this was unthinkable, Ali, not so long ago. VELSHI: David Beers said it could take-if everything is done the right way and in fact if these budget discussions get a little more aggressive about either raising revenue, raising taxes or cutting spending, the U.S. could regain its AAA credit rating in about two years. You know, the credit rating is not the same as lowering or raising interest rates themselves, Mohamed. And what we saw is that U.S. bonds got more expensive and their yields got lower. Their return got lower. That's counter intuitive to some people. You could expect that this kind of thing would cause U.S. bonds to-would cause the U.S. to have to pay more interest to borrow money. Why is that not happening? EL-ERIAN: Two issues: First on the S&P, they added insult to injury because they didn't just downgrade the U.S. from AAA to AA plus. They put the new rating on negative outlook, which means they're still worried about the possibility, not the probability, but the possibility of a further downgrade. In terms of the impact on U.S. Treasuries, remember U.S. Treasuries reflect a whole host of factors. What has dominated in recent times are two things. First, a recognition that the U.S. and the global economy are slowing down significantly. And that tends to push bond prices up, yields down. And second, we've had a fight to quality out of Europe because of the crisis there. And out of the stock market because of nine sharp days of decline. So the bond market is trying to reflect so many moving pieces. And net-net these two that I've just cited have dominated over the credit risk which was associated with the AAA downgrade. VELSHI: And Mohamed, finally, I want to ask you, do you think there is going to be, maybe not on Monday, maybe not in the short term, but what's the overall effect, both psychologically and financially on the delicate economy here in the U.S. of not only this, which happened on Friday, but of the things we've seen unfold over the course of the last nine days. The debt deal, the new numbers on GDP which shows our growth is slower than expected, that manufacturing is slowing a little bit. That demand, the consumer demand had slowed a little bit and our job growth is actually a little better than we expected. When you put all of this into a bowl, what kind of bake do you bake out this? EL-ERIAN: Let me tell you my expectation and then my hope. My expectation is when you put thought in a bowl, the analysts will be revising down again the growth estimates for the U.S. and for the rest of the world. And that is not good news for a country that already has an unemployment crisis, and has a housing market that is not functioning properly. This is bad news for Americans, because it means lower growth and fewer jobs. My hope, Ali, and it is a hope, is that this will be a wake-up call for the politicians and the policy makers. This could be our Sputnik moment. The moment in which our psyche, as a country, is shaken so much, that we recognize collectively the need for common vision and common purpose to put this country back on the road to faster growth and more jobs. VELSHI: Mohamed El-Erian, very clear, I appreciate you coming here and making some sense for us. Mohamed El-Erian is the CEO and co- chief investment officer at PIMCO. I'm standing by with Ken Rogoff, he is the former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund. He is a Harvard professor and one of the smartest guys I know. He will help make sense of this, right after our commercial break. You're watching a live special edition of YOUR MONEY. Stay with us. (COMMERCIAL BREAK) VELSHI: You're watching a special five edition of YOUR MONEY where we're digging into why Standard & Poors downgraded the United States. I'm joined again by Ken Rogoff, he is a Harvard economist and professor, and he is the former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund. Even my head is spinning after this last week, Ken. A week ago we were talking about this debt deal. We were talking about GDP numbers and a manufacturing numbers and consumer demand, a market that dropped several percent and jobless numbers and now this downgrade. About eight months worth of news in one week. Tell me what my viewers are supposed to think about thing that has happened, culminating in this down grade. KEN ROGOFF, FMR. CHIEF ECONOMIST, IMF: The downgrade is certainly a kick in the seat of the pants for the United States. We're out there trying to market $15 trillion in debt and somebody says, well, it's good, but it's not great. It's not helpful. Certainly the U.S. economy has been slowing. Europe is in trouble. And I just, I'm afraid there is no other way to put it, this is certainly a little bit of a scary moment. And we need leadership. We need our policy makers to come forward. Our monetary policy, especially, and do something. The market, the investors are looking for some leadership that has been absent. We saw the debate in Washington. That wasn't very encouraging. The Europeans don't seem to know what they're doing. They really have to pull it together. It is a critical moment. It is not a cheery message, but I'm afraid that's where we are. VELSHI: That's the message. It is time for leadership. Ken Rogoff, thanks for helping make that clear for us. Ken Rogoff is a professor at Harvard University. You are watching a special live edition of YOUR MONEY. Thanks for joining us.


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The Gift of Gaudí
Honeymooners from Nevada get an inside look at Antoni Gaudí's Casa Batlló in Barcelona.
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"Our honeymoon in Barcelona will also be Josh's first trip to Europe, so I want it to be very special. Our plans are to do whatever we desire--but we'll definitely be wandering around and admiring the architecture." Noelle McMullen, Reno, Nev.
Using our powers for the good of the people
Noelle McMullen and Josh Matthews chose to honeymoon in Barcelona because Josh had never been to Europe and Noelle had always wanted to return to see more buildings by Catalan architect Antoni Gaudí. "I could've taken 800 pictures and spent the whole day at Sagrada Família cathedral and still not have gotten enough of it," she says. Malú Piedrabuena, the director of Casa Batlló, a residence considered to be one of the finest examples of Gaudí's mature style, agreed to give the newlyweds an exclusive tour. Noelle and Josh walked up off-limits staircases and opened windows so large that they have their own pulley system--and when Josh leaned out and waved, passersby stopped and pointed. "Other visitors asked if they could do what we were doing, and Malú said no! It felt awesome," Noelle confesses. The tour ended with a snack of cava and Spanish ham--during which Malú sneaked down to the gift shop to surprise the couple with a model of a Gaudí chair that Noelle had admired. "I have it on my nightstand, so every time I turn off the light, I see it and think, Good night, Gaudí!"
Many thanks to...
Casa Batlló, a private home that architect Antoni Gaudí transformed in 1904-1906. The building is now open to the public for audio-guide tours (011-34/93-216-03-66, casabatllo.cat, $24).


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Duke Da God Clowns On Frenyc (One Of Dipset's Beat Makers) + Frenyc Says Hes The Original TV Starter [Frenyc TV Is Back - WSHH Edition]
Frenyc TV is finally back. He does alot of beats for Dipset. This is his WSHH edition
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Hubert W. "Buck" Hutchins, 86, of Newfoundland, died Monday morning, March 4, 2013, at his home. He was the husband of Joan Shaffer, at home.
Born in Waymart, he was the son of the late Burton and Minnie (Bucklish) Hutchins. He had resided in Newfoundland since 1949.
Buck owned and operated Buck's Leathercraft from 1949 until the day of his death. He opened his first shop in Waymart in 1946, following in his father's footsteps in a business established in 1911. A master craftsman in leather, he made special leather goods for General Motors, Ford Motor Co., Ronson Corp., the New York City Police Department and made hatbands, chin straps and badge cases for the Pennsylvania State Police.
A 10th-generation family that came to Plymouth Plantation in 1638 aboard the Friendship, he was a direct descendant of John Church Hutchins, a minuteman at the battle of Lexington Alarm.
A graduate of Waymart High School, class of 1944, he entered the U.S. Army in April 1945 and served with the 88th Blue Devils Infantry Division in Italy. He was a member of Post 509 Veterans of Foreign Wars, Tobyhanna.
Buck was a baseball legend in Wayne County, playing for more than 20 years in the Wayne County Amateur League with his identical twin, Hobe. It was difficult to tell which one was pitching and which one was catching. Buck was inducted into the Wayne County Sports Hall of Fame in 1994.
In addition to his wife, Joan, he is survived by two sons: Robert (Colleen) Hutchins of Lafayette, La., and James (Lisa) Hutchins of Blakeslee; four stepchildren: Grace Krzan of Dunmore, Chris Shell of Scranton, Geraldine McGraw of Lakewood, and Frank Karwoski of Scranton; his twin brother, Hobart "Hobe" (Mary Lu) Hutchins of Franklin, Tenn.; his sister-in-law, Margery Hutchins of Grand Rapids, Mich.; and several nieces and nephews.
He was preceded in death by a grandson, Jared; a sister, Alice Allen; and his brothers, Wilson, Merlyn and Burton Jr.
Friends may call from 4 to 7 p.m. Thursday, March 7, at Arthur J. Frey Funeral Home, 201 LaAnna Road, Village of LaAnna, South Sterling. Funeral services with military honors will be held at 10:30 a.m. Friday, March 8, at Indiantown Gap National Cemetery, Annville.
Arthur J. Frey Funeral Home
201 LaAnna Road
Village of LaAnna, South Sterling
Hubert W. "Buck" Hutchins
Hubert W. "Buck" Hutchins, 86, of Newfoundland, died Monday morning, March 4, 2013, at his home. He was the husband of Joan Shaffer, at home.


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The blogging, it's been sparse. The knitting has also been sparse. It's just too damn hot to knit. I have been knitting a felted bag, but (of course) I keep forgetting to take a picture of it.
So, what have I been doing?
I've been uploading my whole stash to Ravelry.
I've been finding dog toys posed in weird positions:
This past Saturday I was barbecuing with the Warm The World folks.
When I arrived home from the barbecue, my date, Harry, was waiting for me:
I finished the book in about 24 hours (with a couple breaks for sleeping) and I think it was just perfect. It was worth the wait and it lived up to the hype (which I did not expect it to do).
This afternoon, I did something I've never done before:
I bought the beading supplies at a 50% off sale last year and just got around to using them. I'm not really interested in beading, but I wear a medic alert bracelet and I'm
cheap frugal. The batch of bracelets I bought years ago are showing their age and are not holding up very well. So, I decided to make them myself.
I have to say, I'm very happy with the results. I had no clue what I was doing. I just kind of operated on instinct and before I knew it, I had finished eleven bracelets. I didn't enjoy the beading enough to do it on a regular basis (I also don't wear jewelry), but I'm glad I can make my own medic alert bracelets now.


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Editor's note: Paul Begala, a Democratic strategist and CNN political contributor, was a political consultant for Bill Clinton's presidential campaign in 1992 and was counselor to Clinton in the White House.
Paul Begala says Obama embodies the American dream, and our fate is now tied to his fate.
WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Sometimes pictures tell a story better than words. On Inauguration Day, we saw Barack Obama, strong and certain, striding purposefully into the presidency.
And we saw Dick Cheney, once one of the most powerful people on Earth, reduced to being wheeled out of the White House.
Of course, we all wish good health for the former vice president, but the contrasting images were stark.
Barack Obama's inaugural address was a bracing, brave break with the past.
"On this day," he said, "we come to proclaim an end to the petty grievances and false promises, the recriminations and worn-out dogmas that for far too long have strangled our politics." He sternly scolded the "greed and irresponsibility" of our current era, and called for "action, bold and swift."
Take that, George W. Bush, whose false promises and worn-out dogmas have turned so much of the nation against him.
Barack Obama's story is unique in its particulars, but it is universal in its appeal. One grandfather a Kenyan goat herder who opposed colonial rule, the other a Kansas farm boy who joined Patton's army to fight the Nazis.
His parents' marriage was illegal in 16 states, and his mother struggled, turning to food stamps to keep body and soul together, and waking young Barry up at 4:30 in the morning to nourish his brain.
He understands and appreciates the American Dream because he is its living embodiment. His story is our story. And now his fate and ours are inextricably intertwined.
As a speechwriter, I know you say a lot in the quotations you choose. President Barack Obama chose two and he chose wisely. First, St. Paul's letter to the Corinthians in which he exhorts the people of Corinth to, in effect, grow up.
"When I was a child," Paul wrote, "I spoke like a child, I thought like a child, and reasoned like a child. But when I became a man I put aside childish things."
The new president used that ancient letter to deliver a badly needed message after eight years of anything goes: Put your big-boy pants on, America.
The president closed by quoting the words from Tom Paine that Gen. Washington ordered read aloud at Valley Forge. "Let it be told to the future world," Washington said, "that in the depth of winter, when nothing but hope and virtue could survive... that the city and the country, alarmed at one common danger, came forth to meet [it]."
The quote shows Obama's belief in unflinching courage, unblinking realism and an unrelenting faith that by coming together we Americans can bend history to our will.
Of course, even as Washington words echoed, other ghosts of American history were milling about. Abe Lincoln prowled the Mall. FDR, his ever-present cigarette holder clenched in his smiling teeth, cheered zestily. Dr. King called out from the steps of the Lincoln Memorial, and John F. Kennedy called back to him from the steps of the Capitol.
When Martin Luther King Jr. delivered his "I Have a Dream" speech in 1963, President Kennedy watched it on TV from the White House. As King concluded, Kennedy said, "He's good. He's damn good." I like to think that as Barack Obama concluded his inaugural address, Dr. King turned to President Kennedy and said, "This young man's pretty damn good, too."
The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Paul Begala.
All About Barack Obama • George Washington • Martin Luther King Jr.


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Celebrating illustration, design, cartoon and comic art of the mid-20th century.
Friday, February 04, 2011
Ward Brackett: How Far is Far (in an Artist's Evolution)?
Brackett's mid-'60s style is gorgeously sophisticated and sensitive in its observation and execution.
Some comments to yesterday's post suggested a similarity to Austin Briggs' work and here it seems even more apparent, doesn't it?
Some of what Brackett is doing at this point I would almost describe as being "exhilaratingly crude." I look at the piece below and I'm reminded of the work of Chicago artist, Carl Kock
Was this development the further influence of Reuben Tam?
During that same mid-'60s period Brackett illustrated several children's books in a style that reflects this same 'sophisticated crudeness'.
From 1964
From 1966
And from 1967
This sort of thing won't appeal to everyone - but I think its noteworthy that Brackett was effectively using this experimental technique in work directed at both child and adult audiences.
Lest you think Brackett completed his career cutting and pasting construction paper, take a look at this book, published in 1974 by McGraw-Hill.
Here is the work of matured artist who, after years as a student...
... now feels confident in his ability to become a teacher.
Finally, perhaps my favourite of all the Ward Brackett art we've looked at this week, three pieces sent to me long ago by our own Charlie Allen. No date on these, but they must surely be from the '60s or even the early '70s.
When he sent these, Charlie, never one to waste words, enclosed a note that simply said, "Ward Brackett, one of my many favorite illustrators."
I like that! Hope you've enjoyed this week's look at the work of Ward Brackett...
... one of my many favourite illustrators, too!
* My Ward Brackett Flickr set.
* Ward Brackett's obituary
* Many thanks to my pal Drazen Kozjan for sharing some of his scans today from "You Will Live Under the Sea". You can find several more from the book at Drazen's blog.
13 comments:
Great stuff. Thanks for sharing.ReplyDelete
Thank you again for another beautiful artist feature Leif! I went right out and snatched up Ward's painting book off of Amazon for 10 dollars! and that was the collectible version. The used versions were going for as little as 35 cents! Even if I don't learn anything(I'm sure I will though!) it would be worth it to see more of his incredible art.ReplyDelete
- Remo2:31 PM
This Ward Brackett work is great.Funny thing,I was disappointed by his painting book when i bought it,there seemed so little evidence of this originality of execution, just a rather formal,predictable even, approach to composition ,color etc.I also found Prohaska's book disappointing, I was probably hoping for something as stimulating as the FA school courses.ReplyDelete
Very inspirational:)! Especially love the black white art with the spot of color. Thanks Leif.ReplyDelete
Very nice tribute to Ward Brackett. I was not familar with him, but will certainly notice now if I see his work.ReplyDelete
When I was in school and taking drawing classes, our teacher would tell us that we needed to loosen up our drawings. I think Ward did a beautiful job with that when he changed his style and approach.
When producing his book, Brackett may have been targeting beginners or lower level wannabes that are still learning the basics. One lesson in his book that I know of, had intelligent information that even seasoned veterans can and have overlooked or strayed from. I know a lot of illustrators that were striving for the cutting edge for years and even decades, and then later in their careers, would rewind and focus on high-end traditional picture making, that some might consider predictable or lacked originality. Even Fuchs returned to a more realistic, traditional, even photographic technique, but employed his strong personal use of design and an eye for simplifying less important areas. His later work was much less avant-garde or experimental. In the late 70s', he developed that oil on canvas technique that he would stick with the rest of his life.
Over time, I learned to appreciate most techniques that are done in good taste and mature skills, but not because they were or were not cutting edge.
Tom Watson
Once again,good stuff.ReplyDelete
The two unidentified pictures looked familiar,so I looked them up in my clip file.The beach one is from McCalls,April 1960,for a story titled Romantic Names,Exotic Places.The couples walking on the log is McCalls,July 1960,for a story titled Wedding Day.
If the reclining nude or the seated woman in the how-to-paint book pages are an indication of his predictable style,he probably did some fine portrait painting.
- Remo2:45 PM
His book probably is aimed at the beginner level artist and I do understand that.I think I was just disappointed that there seemed to be no evidence of his stylistic versatility.And I don't mean that as a gimmicky approach to expressing an idea but choosing from a variety of styles media etc to suit the subject matter.ReplyDelete
Prohaska's book seemed to be a series of exercises, that while interesting, ultimately fell short of a satisying explanation of his picture making.
I think Leiff could be a good artist's agent... Thanks to you I've acquired those classic books (Pitz, Watson) and now Brackett! (already from Amazon) You show us so much inspiration from those legendary illustrators...ReplyDelete
Have you seen the book Forty Illustrators And How They Work(1946)?It has an article on Prohaska,and shows"the creation of a Prohaska iIllustration"with step by step photos,and a description of his casein tempera underpainting with oil painting on top.
I should add that the 'step by step" photos are black and white.They show four steps:the thumbnail drawing,close-up of a brown ink drawing on tinted canvas,close-up of the tempera underpainting,and final oil painting.But the written description of his methods are fairly detailed.
Leif, my mother really enjoyed your piece on Ward Brakett.He and his wife were her great friends for many years. They were the reason my mother wanted to move to Westport from NYC but she ended up in Westchester NY with other friends Coby Whitmore,and Joe DemersReplyDelete


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Even as stress testing matures, gaps in technology and coordination remain
By Tom Kimner, Head of Global Operations for Risk Management, SAS
As we all know, during the recent financial crisis historical stress testing programs proved to be inadequate at ensuring that banks were well capitalized in widespread, severely adverse economic scenarios. Because of this, regulators and lawmakers – trying to guard against a collapse of the financial system – almost immediately targeted the largest banks, requiring them to provide more transparency on how they determine their capital levels and protect themselves from financial failure.
Not only have banks had to revamp and enhance their quantitative risk management programs by strengthening their stress-testing capabilities, they've also had to demonstrate that their qualitative programs – policies and procedures, capital planning, and oversight – are all sound, demonstrable and well documented.
But even with significant investments in people and a number of process improvements over the last few years, banks still recognize that they are not as robust and mature as they need to be in terms of their technology. They also are not fully satisfied with the level of information reporting and coordination across the enterprise.
These gaps were identified in a recent survey conducted by the Global Association of Risk Professionals (GARP) and SAS. The survey, conducted in the spring of 2015, reflects the state of stress testing from the perspective of risk professionals, with participation from nearly 400 global executives and practitioners directly or closely involved in the stress-testing process.
Technology gaps in bank stress testing
Practitioner and executive perceptions universally identified gaps across technology, especially when compared to the relative strengths of people and expertise. Gaps in information reporting and coordination were also identified by practitioners and executives but were more pronounced in less mature financial institutions.
These two areas are critical gaps for organizations to overcome as they try and improve their stress testing programs. The increasing demands of regulators, including the current emphasis on iterative and responsive follow-up with further detail and more complex scenarios, cannot be addressed simply by adding more people to the equation. Investments in technology – computation power, implementation platforms, aggregation and reporting systems – must be made to not only keep up with the demands of compliance but also to help inform ongoing business decisions.
In addition, reporting and communication improvements – especially in ensuring consistency and transparency – can be addressed to a large extent with technology as well. For example, new software solutions from SAS can help with the overall orchestration of a stress testing program, ensuring that individual processes are run properly and that an overall level of governance guides the program from beginning to end.
Stress testing can be a highly complex endeavor requiring a systematic and repeatable process. Banks are finding that they better understand how to address regulatory needs today than they did even a few years ago. They also recognize that even though they have made investments in people and are building up their levels of expertise, they still need to make additional investments in technology to help them:
- Manage large amounts of granular data
- Implement models
- Aggregate and share results
- Govern the overall process, and
- Communicate across various parts of the organization.
Tom Kimner leads Risk Operations and Pre-sales for SAS Risk Research and Quantitative Solutions. He is responsible for executing the overall risk management strategy by leading and coordinating the division's marketing and communications functions. Prior to joining SAS, Mr. Kimner spent the bulk of his career at Fannie Mae in various senior management roles spearheading corporate initiatives to more effectively manage credit and financial risk. Mr. Kimner has testified before the Financial Services Committee of the U.S. House of Representatives and regularly speaks at Risk Conferences and other SAS hosted events.
Read More
- Read the GARP report: Stress Testing: A View from the Trenches.
- Learn about SAS® Stress Testing.
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Israel News - Stay Informed, Pray Informed
Former Prime Minister Ariel Sharon died on Saturday after eight years in a coma following a brain hemorrhage in January 2006. His coffin was to lie in state at the Knesset on Sunday, and his funeral was scheduled for Monday at Sharon's Sycamore Ranch in the southern Negev region. He was 85.
Sharon was the last of a generation of Israeli leaders and warriors that knew how to get the job done. Often controversial, Sharon was not afraid to bend and even break the rules in order to accomplish his and what he felt were the nation's goals. And more than once, that approach is believed to have saved the State of Israel from disaster.
David Ben Gurion, Israel's first prime minister, famously labeled Sharon as the Jewish state's "greatest field commander" for his uncanny ability to remain calm and turn the tide of battle. Sharon carried that level of composure and confidence into his political career where, again often contentious, he managed to get things done that others viewed as being out of reach.
From daring and defiant military maneuvers that brought Israel some of its greatest wartime victories, to brutal anti-terror campaigns that taught Israel's enemies that Jewish blood is not cheap, to bulldozing through some of Israel's toughest political issues, Sharon demonstrated a decisiveness that is sorely lacking in most of the nation's leaders today.
The reaction of former left-wing opposition leader Yossi Sarid to Sharon's death perhaps best relates the impact he had on this nation:
"[Ariel Sharon] was the most present and influential person in the country in the past two generations. Lots of people wanted to influence and leave their mark, but nobody, for better or for worse, left such a deep mark on our history in the past few decades."
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Visit our main website at www.StDavids.com
Amy Scholten, MPH
Depression is a mental illness marked by feelings of profound sadness and lack of interest in activities. It is a persistent low mood that interferes with the ability to function and appreciate things in life. It may cause a wide range of symptoms, both physical and emotional. It can last for weeks, months, or years. People with depression rarely recover without treatment.
The exact cause of depression is not known. It may be due to a certain type of brain chemistry. While the exact cause is not clearly established, factors that may play a role in depression include:
Copyright © Nucleus Medical Media, Inc.
Depression is more common in females. There are a range of factors that may increase your risk of depression. Examples include:
Depression can differ from person to person. Some people have only a few symptoms, while others have many.
Symptoms can change over time and may include:
There is no blood test or diagnostic test for depression. You will be asked about your symptoms and medical history, giving special attention to:
Specific mental health exams may be done. This will help the doctor get detailed information about your speech, thoughts, memory, and mood. A physical exam and other tests can help rule out other causes.
Treatment may involve the use of medication and/or psychotherapy.
Severe depression can require hospital care, especially if you are at risk of hurting yourself or others.
Antidepressant medications may be most effective in people with severe depression. These medications can take 2-6 weeks to reach their maximum effectiveness. There are many different types of medications to treat depression. You will work with your doctor to find the medication that benefits you the most and has the least side effects.
for depression consists of various types of counseling. These include
cognitive-behavior therapy (CBT), interpersonal therapy, psychodynamic therapy, or a combination of these. Therapy is designed to help you cope with difficulties in relationships, change negative thinking and behavior patterns, and resolve difficult feelings.
Research suggests that diets high in tryptophan and certain
B vitamins
may be helpful. There is also mixed evidence that
omega-3 fatty acids
may reduce symptoms.
If you want to take supplements or change your diet, talk to your doctor first.
The herb
St. John's wort
may be an effective alternative to standard medications with fewer side effects. However, St. John's wort may reduce the effectiveness of many drugs, such as antidepressants, birth control pills, blood thinners, and other medications. It is important that you talk to your doctor before trying any herb.
There is also some evidence that
dehydroepiandrosterone (DHEA), a hormone that is available as a dietary supplement, may help some people.
A regular
exercise program
has been shown to relieve some of the symptoms. It should play a large role in the overall management of depression.
is the use of an electric stimulus to produce a generalized seizure. It may be used in people with severe or life-threatening depression. ECT is also used for people who cannot take or do not respond to medication. It is considered a safe and effective procedure.
VNS is used as therapy for depression when multiple trials of medication do not work. A pacemaker-like device stimulates the vagus nerve in the neck.
Stimulation of the vagus nerve (yellow) at the neck is a depression therapy option.
TMS involves the application of low-frequency magnetic pulses to the brain. The change in electrical field stimulates nerves. There are a number of studies that show the benefits of TMS for the treatment of depression. It may be used if you have not gotten better with medications and psychotherapy.
Your doctor may recommend bright light therapy. This involves being exposed to high levels of light from a special light box that has a screen on it.
Meditation may help to improve the symptoms of depression.
Strategies to reduce your chances of becoming depressed include:
Please be aware that this information is provided to supplement the care provided by your physician. It is neither intended nor implied to be a substitute for professional medical advice. CALL YOUR HEALTHCARE PROVIDER IMMEDIATELY IF YOU THINK YOU MAY HAVE A MEDICAL EMERGENCY. Always seek the advice of your physician or other qualified health provider prior to starting any new treatment or with any questions you may have regarding a medical condition.
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After her at-times harsh criticism of President Obama's foreign policy, Hillary Clinton is trying to mend bridges with her former boss by "hugging it out." But Jimmy Fallon has found new footage that shows just how real the divide between Hillary and Obama has become.
Plus: The U.S. Post Office continues to struggle. And Obama enjoys a day at the beach during his vacation at Martha's Vineyard.


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Haskell is fine for people with the Hacker Nature, but there is no way that the average Code Monkey is ever going to grok recursion, let alone monads. Therefore Haskell is doomed for use in the Real World, and will forever remain a plaything of academics and over-enthusiastic start-up companies.Lets call the people who can define new monads "Alphas" and the rest of the developers "Betas". First of all, its worth noting that most, if not all the people who make this assertion are in fact Alphas, and they might be surprised at how much some other people can understand. But I can accept that there are people out there who generate software, but for whom software is not a primary skill. For example a physicist who writes a numerical simulation of particle interaction in Fortran, or a financial trader who's understanding of how to price a swaption is embedded in Excel. And of course the favourite example: people who's primary job is the design of dynamic web applications and who know just enough to query a SQL database and convert the results into HTML. Some of these people are capable of groking the monad laws, but they are not interested in theoretical computer science. So how will they do in Haskell?
I think a clue comes from an experience report on Eiffel. The application was for financial derivatives back in the 90s. The developers used Eiffel to create a library of classes (which would now be called an embedded domain specific language) for derivative construction. It sounds not unlike the one proposed by Simon Peyton Jones in Haskell. Once the developers had generated a library of Eiffel classes, the people who understood derivatives could use the existing library to describe esoteric financial contracts and define the pricing algorithms associated with them.
This is the way that Haskell should go in the future. The Alphas can formalise the problem domain in a way that saves the Betas from having to understand any advanced stuff like GUIs, database access, and all the other stuff that makes our lives so interesting.
Excel is very much a case in point here. It has been called "the most popular functional programming language in the world", although of course it is not Turing Complete. But it shows that many people can get their heads around a system of linked equations, and even simple recursion where necessary.
But the real beauty of Haskell is that it doesn't have any built-in concept of flow of control. This may sound like an odd advantage, but it allows an embedded DSL to have a monad embodying its own domain-specific notion of control flow in which the cause-and-effect model follows the model of the domain experts rather than the rest of the language. Parsec (the recursive descent parser library for Haskell) is a good example: a parsing action can have side effects, but anything that happened in a failed parse is guaranteed to be invisible. Coming up with Parsec took some Alpha brains, but now any Beta can write a parser in Haskell without worrying about the interaction of side effects and backtracking.
Environments such as Vital may help to push this even further by providing an intuitive spreadsheet-like front end, but many of the Betas don't actually need it: they are happy with expressing their knowledge in source code; they just want a language that thinks the same way they do.
So I really don't think that Haskell has to be a closed world to the Betas. The Alphas will interpret the domain as a library of monad combinators, and the Betas can just use the library without worrying about details like the exact flow of control. Over time some of the Betas will come to understand and be promoted to Alphas, and the rest will continue to code unabated.


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There's never been a better time
to apply to Otterbein University.
Apply online today!
The guidelines apply only to non-profit educational institutions.
A program may be recorded off-air and retained by the school for forty-five (45) consecutive days. However, the program may be used for instructional activities only during the first ten (10) consecutive school days following the recording. During these ten (10) days, the program may be used once in the course of teaching, and repeated once only when reinforcement is necessary. The rest of the retention period, up to the end of the forty-five (45) days, is to be used for teacher evaluation purposes only, i.e., to determine whether or not to include the program in the teaching curriculum. During this time permission to retain the program for a longer period of time must be sought. Upon conclusion of the forty-five (45) days, the recording must be erased.
Off-air recordings may be made only at the request of individual teachers, and may not be recorded in anticipation of requests. A given teacher cannot request the same program be recorded more than once.
A limited number of copies of the recording may be made. These copies are subject to the same provisions as the original recording.
Off-air recordings need not be used in their entirety, but they may not be altered from their original content. They may not be combined to create teaching anthologies.
Film to Video Transfers
The Digital Millenium Copyright Act goes much further in allowing such duplication. The term "phono record" has been extended to include the terms "copy" and "work" in addition to "phono record". In some cases, the law allows duplication of up to 3 copies.
BUT there are limitations.
1. The law applies ONLY to libraries and/or archives. (One argument for wrapping the media collection into the institution's library holdings).
2. The duplication is non-commercial (NO, you cannot duplication your copies of "El Norte" or "Race for the Double Helix" to sell to others).
3. Your collection is open to the public. (That does NOT mean available for LOAN... only that others may, at least, use your collection on site).
4. The duplicated copy includes a copyright notice, either from the original, or a new notice that it may be protected by copyright.
5. The institution already owns a copy. (No borrowing from another institution to make a copy for your institution).
6. Good faith effort has been conducted to obtain an UNUSED copy at a REASONABLE price. (Strong encouragement to document your efforts.)
7. This last point is one of the most hotly contested issues (it was in the older version of the copyright law as well) "New old stock" of media is rare. And "reasonable" is not defined.
For purposes of this subsection, a format shall be considered obsolete if the machine or device necessary to render perceptible a work stored in that format is no longer manufactured or is no longer reasonably available in the commercial marketplace.
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Reads right to left
I'm just gonna. go ahead and dedicate this to Arthur himself. Since it was something of his that inspired me to make it. (( ; - ; i'm sorry if it's a bit upsetting somehow ))
I actually like how this turned out though... I think it's a bit of a cute little story with it's ending C:


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The United Arab Emirates is close to purchasing Predator drones from a San Diego County defense contractor, sparking concern among arms control advocates.
Under the proposed sale, revealed this week at a defense conference in Abu Dhabi and confirmed Friday, General Atomics Aeronautical Systems Inc. of Poway will sell an undisclosed number of the robotic aircraft to the UAE armed forces for $197 million.
The agreement would mark the first time a non-NATO country has obtained the American-made technology, which has reshaped modern warfare. The deal has drawn scrutiny from critics who worry about the technology falling into terrorists' hands or being used by governments against their own citizens.
The UAE, notably the city-state of Dubai, has been a crossroads for banking, finance and technology as the nation emerged as an economic hub for the Arab world. It has only recently begun to tighten regulations to limit money laundering and other shady financial endeavors that attracted Islamic militants, drug smugglers and other traffickers.


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Maybe you should consider other options. I think your ability to serve as a functioning lawyer is minimal. To be a lawyer, one needs 1) top notch logical reasoning skills, 2) to be self-motivated, and 3) resourceful. If you may have noticed there are *plenty* of helpful internet resources which allow you to paint an accurate picture of which schools you have a good shot of being admitted. You simply plug in your GPA and LSAT and presto. Sooo... If you're unable to simply look at the medians at many schools, assess how you fit with this, and then make a determination - you have no logical reasoning skills. If you want other people to simply analyze your GPA and LSAT, what more can anyone tell you than those computer programs. Thus you are neither self-motivated nor resourceful. So ummmmmm, I would tell you some websites but it'd probably be a good first step for you to find them yourself.
Hi everyone, any thoughts on chances for 173 and 3.84 from Columbia?Double-Major in political science and east asian studies
You guys are being way to hard on this gentleman. Sir, all you said was chances, what schools were you considering? With your stellar numbers you should be able to sweep the T14 no problem. Personally if I were you I'd take a full ride at the best school that offers you one, it's widely known that career prospects for all of the top 25 schools are excellent and you should be able to get into any field of practice from any school in that range. Good luck sir, you obviously have bright future ahead of you!


text: During World War II, some 350,000 women served in the U.S. Armed Forces, both at home and abroad. They included the Women's Airforce Service Pilots, who on March 10, 2010, were awarded the prestigious Congressional Gold Medal. Meanwhile, widespread male enlistment left gaping holes in the industrial labor force. Between 1940 and 1945, the female percentage of the U.S. workforce increased from 27 percent to nearly 37 percent, and by 1945 nearly one out of every four married women worked outside the home.


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Tuition refunds are not automatic except when the College cancels courses.
Students may be eligible for a tuition refund or forgiveness of debt under some very special circumstances. To request a refund or forgiveness of tuition debt, students should contact the staff of a campus Business Office to determine the correct procedures to follow. Complete information about tuition refunds and forgiveness of debt can be found online.


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Bunchballers run fast, think creatively, question the status quo, and are masters of their craft. We believe in working together to achieve great things and in having a little fun along the way.
We have an incredibly talented team, drawn from places like Philips, IBM Research, salesforce.com, LinkedIn, Microsoft, Oracle, CMP Media and IDEO. And we're looking for our next rockstar. You'll have lots of responsibility and interesting challenges, you'll have a significant impact, and you'll learn a lot. We offer competitive salary, equity, benefits and a dynamic work environment. Send resumes, portfolios and online profile links to firstname.lastname@example.com.


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About This Organizer
Brebeuf Jesuit Preparatory School seeks to prepare the next generation of leaders with the intellectual competence, loving and open hearts, religious fervor and social sensitivity to bring about a more just, humane and loving world. Students from all backgrounds, faiths, and ethnicities are welcome at Brebeuf Jesuit, where all are called to discover and cultivate the fullness of their God-given talents as a responsibility and as an act of worship. Each student is therefore challenged and inspired to strive for academic excellence; to engage whole-heartedly in co-curricular activities, including more than 50 student clubs and 17 IHSAA competitive sports; to develop confidence in leadership abilities in the classroom and through student-led initiatives; and to discover God's presence in everyday life by serving others in more than 60 service agencies in the Indianapolis community and through participation in assistance programs in countries in the developing world abroad.
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Brebeuf Jesuit Preparatory School