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Thursday, April 17, 2014
Trudeau: One Year Later
I also suggest you consider checking out Tapping into the Pulse, my ebook on polling from 2013. It covers the last months of the Liberal leadership race and the first eight months with Trudeau at the helm of the party. The book also covers the wider federal scene, as well as each province individually. You can order it here from Gumroad, Amazon, and Kobo.
For those who want another trip down memory lane, I looked at the polls one year after Thomas Mulcair became leader of the New Democrats for The Hill Times here.
The chart below shows federal support in polls conducted one year since and one year before Trudeau became the Liberal leader. I've used a five-poll rolling average to smooth out the lines as much as possible. I've also added a linear trendline (the dotted, darker lines) to give an idea of how things have moved over the last 24 months.
Stretching the chart back to April 2012 also allows us to take a look at Mulcair's honeymoon, when the NDP was polling in a tied or ahead of the Conservatives. It also lets us look at where his numbers have gone after two years as leader.
In late 2012, the Liberals were making gains as the leadership campaign rolled on, but you can see that in the months before Trudeau's victory became inevitable the polls were all over the map. This was, in part, because some voters' intentions included Trudeau as leader and others didn't. And Trudeau's quality as a potential leader was still murky at the time.
Since his victory the polls have been less varied, particularly over the last few months. You can see that since the beginning of 2014 the support levels of the three major parties have been relatively tight. Are the numbers stabilizing?
The chart also starkly shows how the Conservatives have not held a clear lead in the polls since over a year ago, and are trailing by a larger margin than they did when the New Democrats were doing so well in the spring and early summer of 2012. Never in the minority years of 2006 to 2011 did the Conservatives trail by such a large margin for such a long time. That the New Democrats have been solidly in third for the last year masks the fact that they have also been solidly over 20% - a level of support that was their ceiling prior to the 2011 breakthrough. Mulcair says it often, and he is right: the party's old ceiling is now their floor.
But the Liberals may be near their ceiling, particularly in this three-way race era. Only a couple of times has the party done better than 40%, the level of support they probably need to be comfortably in majority territory.
So that is the last 24 months in polls. Only 18 months remain before the next election is scheduled to take place. What will this chart look like by then?
59 comments:
Justin Trudeau is popular because he comes with an established name brand.ReplyDelete
I have friends and family members, who don't really follow politics closely, but vote. They see it as Stephen Harper vs Justin Trudeau in the next election.
Traditionally, it has been Liberal vs Conservative. I'm sure many people forgot the Liberals are a 3rd party rump in the House of Commons.
They see the Harper government getting into too much trouble, Justin Trudeau is the alternative. They may recognize Thomas Mulcair as the beareded NDP guy, but won't recall his name.
These so called "gaffes" Trudeau made are nothing. I doubt much of it will stick come election time.
I could see the CPC and NDP support increase come election time. Voters may like the Liberal leader and want him to become PM, but they may not want to toss out their incumbent MP, whose been doing good things according to pamphlets and the local paper.Replies
At the moment people are parking their vote. In the hustle and bustle of a campaign gaffes can become deadly. If Trudeau does not hold up to the scrutiny of the campaign the Liberal polling numbers will plummet and the Tories will be the beneficiary. Unfortunately for Mulcair Canadians have already passed judgement and they'd rather have Trudeau as the alternative to Harper.Delete
For what it is worth I think Harper gave a very good eulogy on Wednesday. I do not know if it will win him votes buy it made the PM look more human which probably helps.
Wasn't it the kitty that was supposed to make him look human? I think we're past that point, now...Delete
Why are Dippers always so negative chirumenga?Delete
Somebody makes a moving and personal eulogy and all you can do is criticise?
This is why the NDP will never form government again provincially or federally in Canada; the NDP is against many things but, for nothing!
The point was straight forward. Harper's been around for too long to be able to convince anyone of his humanity at this stage.Delete
Your comments come across as mean spirited-that is the point! Your comment above is written so as to deny Mr. Harper his humanity.
Are Nerw democrats only capable of leveling personal attacks?
While I hardly think it's a great tragedy or outrage to deny that Harper has any sense of human connection, that's not what I said. I was referring to the perception of his humanity, and noting that anyone who wasn't convinced by the kitten that he is humane, would not - at this late date - come round to the idea now. Is there anyone out there who wouldn't expect Harper to deliver a passable eulogy for a longtime colleague and friend?Delete
As for the NDP references. I only support the party in the absence of something more groundbreaking, so you can't really have me stand for them. Regrdless, it's disingenuous to claim that the NDP hasn't put forth positive policies and proposals or that they are only about negativity. No one here actua
chirumenga you have done it again therefore The answer is "Yes". Once again you hurl insults and deny Harper's humanity.Delete
"While I hardly think it's a great tragedy or outrage to deny that Harper has any sense of human connection"
I find writing like this rather disgusting. It is reminiscent of how tyrants describe their enemies. For a party that portrays itself as the compassionate conscience of Canada it certainly demonstrates their inconsistency and double standard!
I don't speak for the NDP, so get over it. And if you think my comment about Harper is a terrible insult, you must have very thin skin. But I'll say this, if Harper had a meaningful connection with humanity, then he wouldn't implement the bulk of the policies he has. His priorities are not humane. And that's not an insult, that's a straightforward observation.Delete
Insults are the last refuge of the out argued.
If you can not produce commentary without insults it does not say much about your writing skills. Nor does it say much about the NDP who without meaningful or well thought out policy use their minions to insult others instead of engage in polite debate.
It amazes me that you continue to call Harper less than human. Publish some of your hateful comments under your real name! At least if you do so those you insult have recourse to the Courts.
So increasing employment in Canada is not humane? Sending soldiers to stabilise a war-ravaged Afghanistan is not human? Cutting the GST thereby giving the poorest Canadians a small tax break is not humane? What is not humane chirumenga is denying another person's humanity!
You've been in a particularly argumentative mood, it seems. I have no need to reply any further when you insist on putting words in my mouth and misrepresenting me.Delete
One has no business in politics whether as a politicians or commentator if they disrespect others' points of view or deny them either their humanity or right to disagree.Delete
Frankly, your writing regarding Mr. Harper is beyond the Pale. I would hope in the future you will treat your opponents with a greater deal of respect even if you disagree with their politics.
I'll take a run at the last question.ReplyDelete
It will come down to the next campaign. I think that in Quebec and Ontario, voters are willing to vote for whoever can turf Harper, and if it looks like it will be Trudeau or Mulcair, so be it.
I think if it's Mulcair, that might spook enough small-c conservative voters (as opposed to big-C Conservatives) to go over to the Liberals to stop it and cause a complete Conservative meltdown. You'll see the Liberals as Official opposition
If it's Trudeau, I think the Conservative vote will stay intact and the NDP vote will wither to third party status.
The question will be if these shifts will be large enough to produce a majority.Replies
I find it difficult to imagine a scenario where the Conservatives end up in third place. There are about 100 seats in the West and Ontario that will go Conservative no matter what.Delete
The Conservatives are sitting on a lot of cash. They play dirty too. This should be enough for them to defend their core base.
The only one possibility I see if the seat count is split almost evenly in 3 ways and all three parties get around 100-120 seats. This could happen if the NDP hold most of the seats they have now, plus they expand in BC, Saskatchewan and Southwestern Ontario. The Conservatives hold to their rural base in the West and Ontario. While the Liberals make gains primarily at the expensive of Conservatives in Atlantic Canada, suburban Ontario, the Greater Vancouver Area and Winnipeg.
What I think is a reasonable and logical vision is a minority govt with the Liberals having more seats than the CPC with the NDP drastically reduced.Delete
It is probable that the NDP will have enough seats to support the Liberals into majority territory on most bills and would abstain on anything that the Harper Cons want and look like winning . I suspect Que will move back to the Trudeau name and thus the Libs approach majority. If the Harper Cons manage to fubar much more then this view will change to their detriment !!
Given the party polls as distinct from the leader polls we've seen in the past few months we're looking right now at a Liberal resurgence and a CPC collapse. That's also not counting the mounting troubles within the CPC between the extreme right and the progressive right. We won't get a clear answer until the actual vote.ReplyDelete
Michael den Tandt story in today's (Saturdays) National Post brings out the fact that the CPC actually has less than 30% solid support and apparently even that is starting to show signs of slippage.ReplyDelete
Anybody for a Liberal majority ??Replies
Not unless the Liberals can knock the NDP into the mid-teens. Otherwise the NDP/Liberal "vote split" will likely deny a majority.Delete
I believe we will see the Liberals win a minority (and plurality) in 2015.Delete
I think Mulcair will probably do better than Trudeau in Quebec, despite gains from the latter.
Even in Ontario, I don't see the Liberals winning a majority of the seats. The NDP is holding steady. They may lose some seats, but they have the ability to win some seats too. The Tories also have many entrenched incumbents that may be able to hold on with a narrow margin.
I think the Whitby-Oshawa and Trinity-Spadina by elections will be a test for the Liberal strength in Ontario. The Liberals lost both seats in 2006 when they lost power.
bede does it really matter?? As long as the Cons no longer rule a Lib-NDP arrangement or a Lib majority will yield the same thing. Good Govt !!Delete
I've said it before and I will repeat myself. The Liberals or NDP will walk into political suicide if they cooperate with one another. If the Liberals must depend on the NDP then they give away the title as "Canada's natural governing party". If the NDP co-habitate with the Liberals they no longer are able to call themselves the party of the working man-they become the establishment.
Do not expect a coalition, co-habitation, or any other Liberal-NDP arrangement should the Tories win a plurality of seats in 2015. it is in neither party's interest which is why with the exception of Saskatchewan and Ontario it has never happened.
As for good government I would not look to either the Liberals or NDP to provide it. The sponsorhip scandal, siphoning off EI premiums to manufacture surpluses, over taxing Canadians, giving away Canada's interest in the oil sands to Alberta and Saskatchewan, introducing an unamendable constitution, provoking Quebec separatism with a constitution meant to quell such thoughts, all these are the results of poor Liberal governing. As for the NDP their ineptitude at governing is well known from Fudgit budgets to Rae days.
Yeah, that doomed stench of appeasement sure crushed the Liberals and NDP in 1974, didn't it? Oh, one party did suffer severe burns there, and the other one took its win too literally, but i dont think a minority gov't will be shunned by the plurality -- by that time the Burgermeister-Meisterburger's clothes will be tattered and worn, and all the kids will be enjoying life again!Delete
You do realise the Conservatives won the next election right?
You have used the term "appeasement" incorrectly.
Secondly, the NDP lost half their caucus in the 1974 election.
Bede Dunelm,Delete
I have not allowed your comment that you have tried to post again and again in reply to the one by Rockfish because you have made an error and I don't want to have to post your comment to correct you.
Burgermeister Meisterburger is a reference to the character in Santa Claus is Comin' to Town, and nothing more sinister. I suggest you look at the following Wikipedia page:
That character symbolises German military aggression in the 20th century.Delete
Rockfish's statement that "by that time the Burgermeister-Meisterburger's clothes will be tattered and worn, and all the kids will be enjoying life again" makes it clear he was referring to the story in the children's TV show.Delete
No more on this.
Haroon Siddiqui in today's (Sunday) Toronto Star has a really interesting piece which shows the parallels between Marois's collapse and Harper's slow fall. Worth the read.ReplyDelete
Ah, but there are certain issues that are going to force voters to decide. Take the Keystone XL and other pipelines. Anyone against further pipeline construction, or tar sands development won't be able to vote Conservative or Liberal.ReplyDelete
There are a bunch of other 'Key' issues, and the big question is how will these play out?
Take the Long Gun Registry. It cost the Liberals a lot of votes. Now it is out of play, a lot of those votes will come back.
What Key issues will arise between now and the election that we haven't spotted yet?
This could be a really exciting election.
From what I've seen in a variety of US media Keystone is dead. Everybody get used to it.Delete
Same applies to Northern Gateway I think after the Kitimat vote !!
Keystone is dead, Northern Gateway is dead, Alberta is seriously ill!Delete
Northern gateway continues to be a pot on the stove, although Harper is standing as far back from the power switch as humanly, or chickenly, possible. Have to laugh when he continues to toss bon mots at Obama for letting politics interfere with the wants of Big Oil... since he doesnt have the political balls to do his own dirty work here. Maybe he can take another trip to Switzerland and tell the press there where he stands (ala pension reforms)...Delete
That's too bad Peter. Trudeau supports Keystone XL.Delete
As someone who works with the Aboriginal community in BC let me assure you Northern Gateway has 0% support.
The good people of Kitimat have rejected Northern Gateway in a referendum and the Haisla nation, whose territory the pipeline must cross are strongly opposed.
The courts have been clear; Aboriginal consultation must be meaningful and Aboriginal title is a form of ownership. If the Haisla were the only First Nation impacted a new route may be possible but, Keystone must cross 49 First Nations most if not all of whom have no interest in the pipeline except as a means to demonstrate their Aboriginal title and sovereignty.
At the moment the application is before the National Energy Board. Why you want political interference in this regulatory process is beyond me but, you insults against Mr. Harper only demonstrate your lack of knowledge in this realm and demonstrate the pettiness of the left in this country, who, unable to develop policy British Columbians support produce ad hominem attacks ad nauseum.
Everyone except Barack Obama supports Keystone XL. A bunch of Democrat Senators recently sent him a letter asking him to approve Keystone.Delete
Northern Gateway will be tougher to get done, but the expansion of the Kinder Morgan pipeline shouldn't be easy, and the reversal of the eastern link to Ontario is a complete no-brainer. There's no reason for anyone to oppose that.
Daniel - Why would anyone want Alberta to be ill? And why would anyone think it was true? Look at their GDP per capita. Alberta continues to generate vastly more wealth than the other provinces do.Delete
I am moving to Alberta next month. The money there is staggering.
I do not wish illness or poverty or plague upon Alberta.You have misconstrued my comments, I say without those two projects Alberta (economy) is ill. How will they export oil without them?
The fact is 90% of Alberta's economy is based on oil sands without the ability to export this resource there is no economy!
Alberta has failed to diversify its economy and failed to save money. At $100 per barrel Alberta still runs a deficit. Fracking has increased oil reserves dramatically for Alberta's biggest market-America. In a year or two the USA may no longer need to import Alberta crude.
I strongly recommend against moving to Alberta. The weather is awful unless you like 6 months of Winter. I really do not have anything good to say about the people especially when behind the wheel and the quality of life one can expect is significantly lower than other places in Canada. Food and rent are less expensive in Vancouver, Toronto or Montreal. fresh vegetables and fruit are particularly problematic and of poor quality.
Then there are the moral questions; is it right Alberta extracts a resource through the depletion of scarce water in the Province? Is it morally acceptable to mine bitumen causing a host of environmental pollutants? Is it right these things occur when the owner HMTQ in Right of Alberta do so without setting aside adequate resources for remediation of the environmental impacts?
If one must go it is infinitely better to live in Calgary than Edmonton. Much nicer city, better weather, much more to see and do and cheaper flights to get out of there!
The elephant in the room is that the refineries fed by Keystone are owned by the Koch brothers. So approval of Keystone means more money donated to Republicans to defeat Democrats. Meanwhile our economy is held hostage.Delete
And Warren Buffet who endorses Obama and hosted several fundraisers for him got a presidential medal of freedom.... makes millions moving oil on railcars and so opposes the pipeline. ... more money donated to democrats to defeat Republicans.Delete
The oil is getting to those refinery's anyway. Koch's don't care if it gets built.
If you are going to run around screaming about evil conservative capitalist boogeymen you could atleast understand the subject material instead of just spewing fear and smear talking points.
I'm pretty much resigned to the likely reality of having young Trudeau as PM someday. I hope that he matures into the job quickly, for the sake of my country. I fear he may not be ready yet, and hope it can be postponed a few years, for the man to gain some seasoning.ReplyDelete
The NDP's ceiling is now it's floor and Mulcair is right about that. The main reason the NDP has been able to stay well above 20% is because of its support in Quebec. As long as it stays 1st or 2nd there, that level of support in the 2nd-biggest province will serve it well in the national numbers.ReplyDelete
The downside for the NDP is that it means they would not grow from the level of support they had under Layton. So the polls also mask the fact that once you take Quebec out of the picture, the NDP is less competitive in the rest of the country.Replies
What the NDP national numbers conceal is not simply they are losing competitiveness in the RoC but, they are down significantly from the last election in the West (with the exception of BC where they are even) and Atlantic Canada. T this point they will only lose 10 seats or so but, the numbers deny the NDP any chance of forming government and hence the cache of being a "national party". If the next election is viewed as a fight between Trudeau and Harper the NDP will be the loser and I suspect they will dipped below their "floor".Delete
Ah, but they are set to gain ten seats too.
The problem is that the polls aren't able to pick out the patterns for individual ridings. Yes, there are ten ridings going Orange next election. Neither the Conservatives nor the Liberals have a hope in them.
There are also ridings going Liberal. The NDP has no hope in them.
And there may be a riding or two going Green, and possibly a couple going Conservative.
While there are National Trends, there are also individual riding trends, and those tend to be more important in the long run.
With all due respect the NDP is set to lose seats. At present the NDP is not set to gain seats in any province with the exception of maybe BC (after the last BC election I think one needs to take NDP numbers with a grain of salt. My feeling is a lot of NDP supporters in BC do not turn up to vote but are captured by polling firms).
Lawrence Martin has an excellent piece in today's Globe and Mail about why the Cons can't beat Trudeau !ReplyDelete
And then the tide shifts AR poll has the Cons 34 Libs 27 and NDP at 27.ReplyDelete
A poll like that , at this point in time, before the Cons balance the budget points to a Cons Majority and the Liberals close to extinction.
The Liberals gambled huge on Trudeau and other than a few short-term gains in the 2 year out polls will pay dearly for that mistake.
I don't know if Martha Ann Findlay will be able to re-build the Liberal party but it would have made more sense to have her on the job now rather than in 2016Replies
Angus Reed had those numbers? I must say I'm a bit surprised. They have been the best pollster at the federal level for years.Delete
Much as I wouldn't mind the extinction of the LPC I very much doubt Trudeau will lead them to a worse result than the last election.
He may not be the savior they think he is, but he certainly has given them some enthusiasm. Much more than MHF or Garneau would have been able to generate.
We will see how Canadians react if JT gaffes his way through a campaign, but for the moment they seem OK with putting him in the PMs chair. It's kinda depressing IMO.
Martha Hall Findlay as the leader of the Liberals? That's a good joke. Findlay is a weak politician, and a small-C Conservative that will cause left-leaning Liberals to go to the NDP.Delete
Like him or not, Trudeau brought in millions into the Liberal Party. Something his predecessors couldn't. The Liberal Party is in better shape now then it has been in a decade.
The Angus Reid poll, is likely a result of good press the Conservatives are getting after the death of the likeable and competent Jim Flaherty. Remember the NDP was polling at 33% after the death of Jack Layton, only to plummet months later.
Angus Reid's numbers aren't quite that dramatic. BCVoR is quoting their "likely voter" numbers, rather than their "eligible voter" numbers.Delete
Without the likelihood adjustment, AR reports:
Still a very strong poll for the Tories, but not so different from other recent polls as to be shocking.
AR also reports that 56% of Canadians say it's time for a change in government, which is actually lower than I expected.
BCVoR doesn't even relay the likely voter numbers faithfully. They're actually 34 CPC 29 LPC 27 NDP.Delete
We'll see if this trend persists or not.
Canadians like to claim that we value substance over style politically. Why then does Trudeau generate so much excitement?ReplyDelete
I think the truth is that while we like to laugh at the Americans for voting in a man much less intelligent than his father, based on little more than a last name, we still seemed poised to do the same thing.
Electing people based on family name recognition is best left to countries like India and Italy. I certainly don't want to see it here.
We may be starting to see an erosion of Trudeau's support. Today's Angus Reid poll is showing the Conservatives ahead with the Liberals barely beating out the NDP.ReplyDelete
AR, Nanos and Ekos have recentlt found similar numbers indicating a softening of support for both Trudeau and his party.
Tom Mulcair has emerged in the AR poll as the most popular leader with his numbers growing while Trudeau's are falling His approval is 46 to 35, Trudeau's is barely even - 45 to 44.
Quebec is emerging as a major problem for the Liberals . AR shows the NDP with a growing lead. Mulcair is favoured over Trudeau as best PM by 30 to 16.
EKOS recently had similar results and also showed the NDP and Mulcair were favoured by Bloq voters b ya ratio of 5 to 1 . Given that the Bloq is still polling about 1/5th of the vote this may result in a windfall for the NDP if the Quebec vote polarizes.
Quebec will likely decide which of the NDP or the Liberals comes ahead in the next election. The cards are starting to line up in the NDP's favour.
Trudeau's support throughout the country is slowly declining. Mulcair's is slowly rising. I suspect Mulcair's support is more solid because he has earned it. Trudeau's is softer because it is largely based on name recognition.Replies
Well CPC 32 LPC 30 NDP 26 is still pretty bad news for the governing party. Any CPC lead which does not yield a majority for them is not a good result. There is no way the NDP, LPC, BQ or GPC would want to be seen propping up a government which is widely loathed by their base. (And all Canadians except staunch CPC partisans).Delete
I agree with your point that the cards in Quebec are lining up in favour with the NDP. Mulcair has somewhat positioned himself as the defender of Quebec. He took risky policy positions that would risk party support in the RoC, just to curry favour in Quebec. The NDP has been playing their cards right in the provinces. They may some seats to the Liberals, but I could see them holding 40+ seats.
I feel Trudeau can win a minority (and plurality) in 2015, despite Mulcair winning the majority of seats in Quebec. Liberals can sweep Atlantic Canada, take back their former strongholds in Ontario (which is a lot), along with a handful of ridings around Vancouver, Winnipeg and Montreal. They could also win a few in Calgary and Edmonton.
And nobody here is allowing for the "Flaherty flip" !!Delete
But other polls have shown it. Wait a week and poll again !!
Big Jay,Delete
If you look at the regional breakdown of the Angus Reid poll with likely voters the Tories are close to a majority-43% in Ontario for example.
I agree Quebec polls of late are looking more favourable for the NDP but, they are still down 7 points from the last election and the Liberals are up 16. I think 40 seats would represent about their maximum.
With the exception of the Calgary-Skyview I do not think the Liberals can win a seat in Alberta. With AR putting the Tories at 60% in that province the chances they can usurp Deepak Obhrai are slim to non-existent. The North-east Calgary community love Deepak, he is quite frankly the Conservative's biggest asset in that riding.
In Edmonton they may have a chance in Edmonton-Centre but, once again with the Tories at 60% and Liberals at 20% the chances are very slim.
The AR poll should be a wake up call for young Trudeau- only 20% of eligible voters pick him as best PM-that is anemic. It means he is a drag on the Liberal party since 29% of Canadian would vote Liberal. Trudeau must begin to attack Mulcair because the continued Liberal-NDP vote split will only lead to another strong, stable, majority Conservative Government.
The "Flaherty flip" ?ReplyDelete
You think that the realization and admission that Flarhety , in the Harper cabinet, was the Best Finance Minister ever will not have a lasting impact on the rational preference for a strong stable Conservative majority .....
Especially when contrasted with the budget somehow being able to balance itself under JT.
According to the flat numbers, yes. But according to individual ridings, things change.
After all, according to the flat numbers, the NDP should never have had more than five or six seats, but they consistently got close to twenty because of their popularity in certain parts of Canada.
That's what I'm talking about here.
The flat numbers are a summary of local ridings. Today the NDP is below their 2011 support in every province-they are set to lose seats. The reason they get more than 5 or 6 seats is because their votes are concentrated in certain localities but, with their vote share down across the country they are down in all these local areas.
But you are talking about today, and I'm talking about Election 2015. That's an eighteen month difference.
I may be wrong, if my guesses about which issues are important are off, but I think I'll be fairly close.
To the best of my knowledge, I was the first person to call the NDP as winning over a hundred seats in the last election. I had people laugh at that. Until the election.
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text:
Astro::Coord::ECI Overview Documentation
This package was created in order to be able to forecast satellite visibility. This is not quite rocket science, but like many endeavors the devil is in the details, which in part accounts for the complexity of the package.
Any system to forecast the visibility of an object in the sky needs to be told a few things: where you are, where the object in the sky is, and (maybe) what source of illumination is being used. This package provides classes for all these. Some of the objects (e.g. Astro::Coord::ECI::Sun) are pretty much self-sufficient. Others (e.g. Astro::Coord::ECI::TLE) need to be initialized before they can be used.
Typically a calculation is done by initializing an object representing the station (i.e. you), another representing the orbiting body (i.e. the satellite), then calling a method on one of them and passing it the other one.
For example, to calculate visibility of the International Space Station from your front yard you would initialize an Astro::Coord::ECI object with the latitude (in radians), longitude (in radians), and height above sea level (in kilometers). You would also initialize an Astro::Coord::ECI::TLE object with TLE data for the space station. Then you would call method pass() on the space station object, giving it the object that represents your location, and the times (as Perl times) you are interested in. The result would be an array of hashes with the visibility data.
This is actually a worst case. The position of a satellite is not dependent on you, so if all you need to know is it's position over the globe, all you need to do is set its object's time. This will cause the model to run. Then you call the method that gives the position in the coordinates you want. For absolute coordinates (e.g. geodetic latitude and longitude) no other objects are involved. For relative coordinates (e.g. azimuth and elevation) you need to make use of the object the coordinates are relative to.
This documentation assumes that you are interested in satellites, but there are a couple supporting classes which can equally well be used in their own right: Astro::Coord::ECI::Sun, which represents the Sun, and Astro::Coord::ECI::Moon.
So far this explanation has been in terms of a single Astro::Coord::ECI::TLE object. But there are cases (e.g. a Space Shuttle launch) where a single Astro::Coord::ECI::TLE object can not represent a single physical object over a conveniently-long period of time (say, a week, starting some time before the launch). In this case, the multiple Astro::Coord::ECI::TLE objects can be aggregated into a single Astro::Coord::ECI::TLE::Set object, using that class' aggregate() method. This method will assort its arguments into the appropriate number of containers, and return one object per OID. By default this will be an Astro::Coord::ECI::TLE object if there is only one instance of the given OID in the input, or an Astro::Coord::ECI::TLE::Set object if there is more than one.
The Astro::Coord::ECI::TLE::Set object can be used anywhere an Astro::Coord::ECI::TLE object can. There is a slight performance penalty, but on the other hand you get better results, or in extreme cases you actually get results where you would not with a single TLE.
The example code in the SYNOPSIS sections of the various modules is (or at least should be) working Perl. If you find that it is not working perl, please submit a bug report.
Other examples are available in the eg directory of the distribution.
Both the module documentation and the eg directory are available online at http://search.cpan.org/dist/Astro-satpass/. For the eg directory you will need to follow the [browse] link near the top of the page.
Bugs should be reported to queue Astro-satpass at http://rt.cpan.org/, or to the author via electronic mail at wyant at cpan dot org.
Different units of measure are usual in different applications. Since these modules span the disciplines of geodesy, aeronautics, and astronomy, a somewhat Procrustean approach has been necessary to provide consistency of interface and try to preserve the sanity of the author.
All angles, both input and output, are in radians. The Astro::Coord::ECI::Utils module exports functions deg2rad and rad2deg to convert degrees to and from radians. The user is on his or her own for degrees, minutes and seconds, or for hours, minutes and seconds of right ascension.
The expected range of an angle depends on what is customary for the quantity being measured. Values outside the customary range will generate warnings.
All distances, both input and output, are in kilometers.
Forecasting satellite visibility is an activity on the border between aeronautics and astronomy. It needs technical words, and borrows from both these disciplines, tending to prefer the aeronautical term when there is conflict. There is a fairly exhaustive TERMINOLOGY AND CONVENTIONS section in the documentation for Astro::Coord::ECI, but a few key terms will be covered here:
Short for 'orbiting body', this is the satellite, spent booster, dropped hammer, or other orbiting item that you are trying to observe. Bodies of all sorts are identified by an OID. Several models have been published to predict the position of such an item at a given body.
Orbiting bodies are represented in this package by an Astro::Coord::ECI::TLE object. Before this object can be used, it needs to be initialized with data for the specific satellite of interest. The standard representation of this data is called TLE, and is explained below.
In general and in astronomical calculations, the epoch is a date and time to which time-dependent calculations are referred. For example, the position of a star or planet may be given in epoch J2000, meaning the coordinates for Julian year 2000.
But in orbital calculations it refers to the 'as-of' date of the orbital data, and that is the meaning used most often in this documentation.
The epoch is important for TLE data because this data has a limited 'shelf life', and the farther from the epoch you are the worse the predictions are. In extreme cases the model itself fails because it cannot handle the type of orbit predicted.
Typically the 'shelf life' of a TLE is a couple weeks for casual use, though data for satellites in near-Earth orbits (defined as a period of less than two and a half hours) are usually updated every couple days. In extreme cases (e.g. the first arc of a Space Shuttle flight) the model may fail within a couple days of the epoch.
Short for 'Object ID', this is a unique number assigned to an object by NORAD or its successors when the orbiting body is detected. The OID may also be called the 'Satellite ID', the 'Satellite Number', or simply the 'ID'.
Short for 'observing station', this is the location of the observer. This package only supports observers on the surface of the Earth, so the observer will be represented by an Astro::Coord::ECI object.
This object will need to be initialized by calling its geodetic() method, passing the observer's latitude and longitude in radians and height above sea level in kilometers. Latitude is negative south of the Equator, and longitude negative west of Greenwich, England. The Astro::Coord::ECI::Utils packages exports deg2rad() to do the angle conversion.
Short for 'Two line elements', this is the standard representation of the data used to initialize any of the usual models for the positions of orbiting bodies. It is basically two lines of text, and owes a lot to the days when computers were fed data by making holes in pieces of cardboard.
A common variant of this format is sometimes called 'NASA TLE'. The format is the same, but the two lines of model data are preceded by a line containing the common name of the body being modeled.
The TLE data has a 'shelf-life', measured from its epoch. For casual use week-old data are usually fine, but in extreme cases (e.g. a Space Shuttle launch) the orbit models can fail completely within a couple days of the epoch.
Given a chunk of TLE data, the Astro::Coord::ECI::TLE parse() method can be used to turn it into Astro::Coord::ECI::TLE or Astro::Coord::ECI::TLE::Iridium objects.
This package does not deal with the acquisition of TLE data. See "WHERE TO GET TLE DATA", below, for that.
The modules in this package are organized functionally for the most part, with utility functions separate. The following list names the modules, and briefly states their function.
The Astro::Coord::ECI module is the base for the inheritance tree. It provides position and time transformations, and doubles as the object used to represent a location fixed to the surface of the Earth.
For the latter use you probably would construct the object by calling Astro::Coord::ECI->geodetic() method, passing it the latitude and longitude in radians, and the height above sea level in meters. The Astro::Coord::ECI::Utils module exports a deg2rad function to convert degrees to radians. Remember that latitude is negative south of the equator, and longitude is negative west of the Prime Meridian in Greenwich, England. Other prime meridians are not supported.
The Astro::Coord::ECI::Moon module is a subclass of Astro::Coord::ECI which represents the Moon. All you have to do to use it is to instantiate it (say, with
my $moon = Astro::Coord::ECI::Moon->new()), and then set the time with something like
$moon->universal($time), where the $time is a Perl time, such as is returned by the time() built-in. Then you can retrieve the position using one of the methods inherited from Astro::Coord::ECI.
You can pass an Astro::Coord::ECI::Moon object to the Astro::Coord::ECI::TLE pass() method, and it will report on close approaches to the Moon. How close depends on the setting of the Astro::Coord::ECI::TLE object's 'appulse' attribute. This defaults to 0, which means no appulse calculations are done.
The Astro::Coord::ECI::Star module is a subclass of Astro::Coord::ECI which represents a star. It is initialized by calling the position() method to set the star's position in right ascension and declination in radians, and optionally its distance and proper motion. After this, simply setting the time of the object (e.g. by
$star->universal($time), $time being a Perl time) will cause its position to be calculated. The position can be retrieved using one of the methods inherited from Astro::Coord::ECI.
You can pass an Astro::Coord::ECI::Star object to the and it will report on close approaches to the star. How close depends on the setting of the Astro::Coord::ECI::TLE object's 'appulse' attribute. This defaults to 0, which means no appulse calculations are done.
The Astro::Coord::ECI::Sun module is a subclass of Astro::Coord::ECI which represents the Sun. All you have to do to use it is to instantiate it (say, with
my $moon = Astro::Coord::ECI::Sun->new()), and then set the time with something like
$moon->universal($time), where the $time is a Perl time, such as is returned by the time() built-in. Then you can retrieve the position using one of the methods inherited from Astro::Coord::ECI.
This object is implicitly used by the Astro::Coord::ECI::TLE pass() method to calculate whether the satellite is illuminated, and whether it is day, dusk, or night at the observing station.
You can pass an Astro::Coord::ECI::Sun object to the Astro::Coord::ECI::TLE pass() method, and it will report on close approaches to the Sun. How close depends on the setting of the Astro::Coord::ECI::TLE object's 'appulse' attribute. This defaults to 0, which means no appulse calculations are done.
The Astro::Coord::ECI::TLE module is a subclass of Astro::Coord::ECI which represents a satellite or other body in orbit around the Earth. This representation is in terms of one of a number of related computational models, defined in Space Track Report Number 3 and Revisiting Spacetrack Report #3, both of which are available at http://celestrak.com/NORAD/documentation/.
It is possible to construct an Astro::Coord::ECI::TLE object by setting the requisite attributes directly, but it is probably more convenient to do so using the Astro::Coord::ECI::TLE->parse() method. This method accepts TLE data, and returns an array of Astro::Coord::ECI::TLE objects parsed from the data.
The position of a satellite is computed by setting the time represented by the object. This is typically done using the universal() method (inherited from Astro::Coord::ECI), by passing it a Perl time (i.e. the kind returned by the time() built-in. Once the position is computed, it can be retrieved by using any of the positional methods defined on Astro::Coord::ECI.
This module also offers the pass() method, which calculates visible passes over an observer's location during a given time interval.
One of the complications of using this module is that the TLE data are only good for a limited amount of time around the epoch of the data. In most cases this just results in a loss of precision, but in extreme cases (such as the first predicted element of a Space Shuttle launch) use of the data by as little as a day or so before its epoch can cause the model computations to fail. For cases like this there is a 'backdate' attribute, which tells the pass method whether it should consider times before the epoch of the data. It defaults to true because that represents the general case. But you may wish to set it false (e.g. by something like
$tle->set(backdate => 0);) if you are using the predicted data downloaded from the "NASA Human Space Flight" web site.
This module is a subclass of Astro::Coord::ECI::TLE representing an Iridium satellite. The Astro::Coord::ECI::TLE parse() method produces these automatically when fed TLE data representing Iridium satellites.
This module adds to the Astro::Coord::ECI::TLE functionality the ability to calculate Iridium flares. The flare() method is passed the observers' location and the desired time range for the prediction. It returns a list of hashes representing the predicted flares. This prediction is modified by attributes giving limiting magnitudes for daytime and nighttime flares, and whether you want predictions for am (between midnight and sunrise), day (between sunrise and sunset), and/or pm (between sunset and midnight) flares.
This module is not a member of the Astro::Coord::ECI inheritance tree. It is a container for one or more Astro::Coord::ECI::TLE objects representing the same OID, and is usable pretty much anywhere an Astro::Coord::ECI::TLE object is.
The Astro::Coord::ECI::TLE::Set object exposes all the methods of its contained objects, but overrides some of them to work its magic. Astro::Coord::ECI::TLE::Set works on the principle that one of its contained objects is the current object, which is used to satisfy data requests. So the most important override is of the universal() method, which selects as the current object the one best representing the given time. In this context, 'best' means the object having the most recent epoch before the given time. If there is no such object, the object having the earliest epoch is used.
There are a couple other small magics involved in Astro::Coord::ECI::TLE::Set:
* The can() method is overridden, so that an Astro::Coord::ECI::TLE::Set object appears to implement the methods of whatever class it was populated with.
* The set() method is overridden so that attributes characteristic of the OID (such as 'name', 'backdate', and so on) being represented are set on all contained objects, but attributes characteristic of a specific TLE data set are set only on the selected object.
* For select methods, such as pass() and flare, the Astro::Coord::ECI::TLE::Set object passes itself to to the method in the role of $self, rather than passing the current object. This way such methods transparently switch TLE data sets whenever appropriate.
The Astro::Coord::ECI::Utils module is not a member of the Astro::Coord::ECI inheritance hierarchy, but is a container for all those utility subroutines that are not intrinsically object-oriented. These are generally conversion routines of some sort, such as the previously-mentioned deg2rad() and its inverse rad2deg, and conversions among the various time representations used in the various models.
There are a number of places to get the TLE data on line. Some of these are accessible through the Astro::SpaceTrack Perl module (not included in this package, but available from CPAN), but you can always simply download the data and then read the file and pass its contents to Astro::Coord::ECI::TLE->parse().
Please note that anything specific said here about the functionality of Astro::SpaceTrack is not definitive. You should consult Astro::SpaceTrack for the latest.
Space Track
The 'most official' source of TLE data is http://www.space-track.org/, which requires you to register and use a username and password. Other sources may get their data from here, which means their data are hours to days older. Astro::SpaceTrack will retrieve data from this site, but of course you have to give it a username and password before it will do so.
Dr. T. S. Kelso's http://celestrak.com/ is a good source for the more popular satellites. It redistributes data from "Space Track", but you can get Dr. Kelso's data without registering. Astro::SpaceTrack will retrieve data from this site, but by default is simply gets the OID from Dr. Kelso, and then retrieves the data from Space Track, so you will need a username and password. If you don't have them, you can configure Astro::SpaceTrack to work for this site without them.
NASA Human Space Flight
NASA makes International Space Station and space shuttle data available at http://spaceflight.nasa.gov/realdata/elements/, but the TLEs have to be dug out of the data. Unlike the other sources, these data include predictions of future data, so that you can (for example) get data for a Space Shuttle flight that has not yet launched. If you're more than a day or so before the lunch, at least some of this data will be too far from its 'as-of' date to be useful. Astro::SpaceTrack will dig out the data for you, and you do not need a username or password.
Amateur Radio Satellite Corporation
The Amateur Radio Satellite Corporation (AMSAT) keeps orbital elements at http://www.amsat.org/amsat-new/tools/keps.php. They appear to get the data from Dr. Kelso. Astro::SpaceTrack will get this data for you, and you need no username or password.
Heavens Above
Heavens Above at http://www.heavens-above.com/ does visibility predictions, and will give you TLE data if you drill down far enough on an individual satellite. I do not know where they get their data. I have observed it to be a day or so behind Space Track, but they also carry data from classified satellites (which Space Track does not), so I don't know where they get their data. You can create an account for yourself, but this is not necessary to use the site. Astro::SpaceTrack does not retrieve data from this site.

subset: commoncrawl


text:
Not necessarily in order:
– The leveling order is Howling Fjord / Borean Tundra – Dragonblight – Grizzly Hills – Zul'Drak – Sholazar Basin – Storm Peaks – Icecrown. As a rule of thumb, try to do as many quests as possible in a given region before proceeding to the next.
– The instance order is Utgarde Keep – The Nexus – Azjol-Nerub – Ahn Kahet (The Old Kingdom) – Drak'Tharon Keep – Violet Hold – Gun'Drak – Halls of Stone. The remaining four instances (Oculus, Halls of Lightning, Culling of Stratholme, Utgarde Pinnacle) are level 80 instances.
Utgarde, Azjol-Nerub, Ahn Kahet, Violet Hold and Halls of Stone do not require prequesting. Nexus and Gun'Drak require partial prequesting so that you can get all the quests out of it (for Nexus, just do all the quests on Coldarra if you're interested. For Gun'Drak, I don't know, I didn't do the quest myself). As far as Drak'Tharon is concerned.. I don't remember. I know that I did at least one quest inside that was the result of a LONG chain of quests (offered by some troll, Drakuru I believe, who is in a cage in a camp formed by the same people involved in the Zul'Aman timed runs (the prisoners) as well as Budd (who has become a quite interesting NPC. Remember when you do the quest that involves taking him for a stroll that you have to activate your pet bar, in case it doesn't activate by itself). I don't remember exactly where the camp was, but you're definitely going to get there while you're questing in Grizzly Hills.
– Zul'Drak contains an arena which can be done at level 75. Get the prequest in the sewers of Dalaran, get his quest, get a 5 man group together, and do it. It gives a HUGE EP boost, just like the Nagrand arena back then. The bosses don't hit hard, with the final one (the guy that comes charging in with his rhino), be sure to tank him with your back against the wall while he's mounted. As soon as he dismounts, someone who is not the tank or the healer needs to mount the rhino (yes, you can hijack his mount) and bash him with it.
– Probably a very obvious hint, but as soon as you turn 77, immediately grab Cold Weather flying, either in Sholazar Basin (Pilot *I forgot his name* in a camp a ways east of Nesingwary's camp), or in Dalaran, near the flight master. It's 1000 gold, but it's definitely worth it. Most quests in Storm Peaks after a while cannot be done without a flying mount. Same goes for Icecrown. Sholazar can be done entirely on land, but it's definitely handy to have an (epic) flying mount on hand.
– Remember that most of Dalaran as well as Wintergrasp are no-flying zones. If you're one of those people that like to turn on autowalk and go AFK while travelling from one location to the other, either plan your routes so you don't fly over those two locations, or consider using the flight paths.
– Speaking of Dalaran, you can enter the city via a crystal just below the city. Look for a dome (a shield you might say) slight west of the central point of the city. Click on the crystal, and up you go! Another way to get there is to talk to some archmage in Wintergarde (eastern Dragonblight) as soon as you're… 74, I believe. He will teleport you *directly* to Dalaran, where you can then proceed to assign your hearthstone to. Dalaran is a beautiful city (I never get tired of the soundtrack). You'll know what I mean the first time you fly off of the flight platform and turn around.
– A few more notes about Dalaran. If you went very early and you don't have any flight connections, or you're just extremely cheap like I am sometimes, you can exit the city by entering the building on the other side of the road of the building that leads to the flight platform. Click the crystal inside and you're back down in Crystalsong Forest. There are profession teachers scattered throughout the city. Remember also that there are two banks. And, for future reference, know that you do not turn in your emblems at a single location as you did in BC; rather, you go to the weapons store, the cloth armor store, etc etc, and the person (or one of the people) inside will offer those items for sale.
– As soon as you get to the point where you can quest in Storm Peaks (level 77-78, 78 is better, 77 if you got tired of Zul'Drak way early like I did and went to Sholazar too early), do *everything*, every single quest. This is crucial, because the main quest in Storm Peaks eventually opens up the Sons of Hodir fraction. I cannot emphasize how important this faction is: they are your source for your shoulder enchants, just like turning in holy dust (or whatever that was, what you got in exchange for fel armaments from the aldor) was in BC. It's a LONG questline, but it also opens up two quests for Halls of Lightning in the end, which is very good.
– When you start questing in Storm Peaks, don't be surprised when you die. You'll be at the graveyard mounting a gryphon. This I believe has been included to allow you to retrieve your corpse from certain completely unreachable locations. The same happens inside Icecrown.
– Daily quests: do them. From the beginning on. You *need* that reputation. Wyrmrest Accord offers a very easy quest as soon as you start questing in their temple (in central Dragonblight). It involves mounting on a dragon and going around shooting down other dragons. Not only is a nice break from the endless mob killing, it allows you to build up reputation, which allows you to get some pretty nice reputation rewards. Wyrmrest in particular offers some nice plate for warriors (can't remember exactly what, I think it was a pair of boots).
If you're a fisherman (or fisherwoman), Kalu'Ak offers a very easy quest in their village in southern Dragonblight. You run around and gather some wolvar offspring. You can either kill the Den Mothers, or just run into the camp, pick them up, and then run away and laugh at their pitiful damage (that is, if you're still specced as prot and wearing your tanking gear!)
The aforementioned Sons of Hodir offer a few daily quests, which are absolutely vital, since questing alone will get you somewhere between friendly and honored, whereas your goal is to eventually become exalted. As soon as you finish their quest line, start doing those daily quests… well, daily! You need that reputation because you need that shoulder enchant. The sooner you start doing them, the better off you'll be, because eventually (as soon as everyone learns about it) those quest areas will be absolutely overfarmed, you only have about three quests that you can do and they are your only source for getting to exalted!
A few Knights of the Ebon Blade daily quests open up eventually in northern Icecrown. They are quite fun quests (one of them involves hijacking a harpoon gun and shooting down dragions that fly in front of you); this faction however did not interest me as much as the others.
I haven't quested much for the Argent Crusade (they're up in southeastern Icecrown). I might give an update sometime in the future when I take a break from the endless instance rushing that is going to commence… well, as soon as the servers are back up (we have maintenance right now). Argent Crusade is another incredibly important faction because at revered they offer the head enchant (just like the CoT guys offered it in BC).
– Tabard. You can buy a tabard from four different factions (Kirin Tor, Wyrmrest, Ebon Blade, Argent Crusade) from their respective quartermasters. The effect (increases your standing with that faction) only works in level 80 instances, however it does *not* require *you* to be 80. Feel free to tank through Halls of Lightning or Utgarde Pinnacle while you're 78-79; if your gear is decent (or was great pre-WotLK), it won't be a problem.
The instances that allow this are: Halls of Lightning, Utgarde Pinnacle, The Oculus, The Culling of Stratholme. I'm guessing that heroics will work similarly, however I have not entered one as of yet (I think it may be better for me to become crit immune before trying to tackle them, 3,20% crit reduction is not quite enough IMHO).
– As soon as you can start taking daily non-heroic instance quests, do them. The reward is one of four commendations of some sort (one for each of the four factions listed above under the tabard section), which you can turn in for reputation for that respective faction. Reputation grinding is very important in WotLK, and I'm glad Blizzard did not make it as monotonous as it was early on, because, now that you can actually choose which reputation that instance gives you based on the tabard you're wearing, it now goes hand in hand with the arduous quest for better gear. You're no longer limited to doing Auchindon instances for pushing up your Lower City reputation, for example


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FORT MILL – The Anne Springs Close Greenway recognized its first completed capital project from the "Nature Needs You" capital campaign Thursday, April 9, with the ribbon cutting on the new Comporium Amphitheater.
COLUMBIA – As part of the annual Industry Appreciation Week, the S.C. Department of Commerce recently announced is 2015 Ambassadors for Economic Development.
Lancaster resident Larry Duncan recently received two free hearing aids from the Beltone Hearing Care Foundation which he called unexpected and shocking.
Duncan was recommended for these hearing devices by local hearing care practitioner Amanda Bonner of Carolina Beltone.
Bonner said Duncan, who first came to her office in March for a hearing evaluation, was a "worthy" recipient of this Beltone gift.
"He was recommended because he needed the help," she said. "Everyone deserves to hear better."
All the world's problems could be solved in the small back room tucked away behind the counter at Sambo's 903 Diner and Drive-In on Flat Creek Road. Steeped in the sound of crackling grease, nobody is a stranger here for long.
For 45 years, local residents have celebrated anniversaries, proposals and birthdays – one woman even went into labor – over roast pork sandwiches and hand-cut french fries with Sambo Faile behind the cash register.
IL business hosts family fun day
PRO Martial Arts, 8390 Charlotte Highway, Suite 104 in the Cross Creek Shopping Center, Indian Land, will host a free family fun day from 2 to 7 p.m. Friday, Aug. 8.
Families are encouraged to take a mini class, learn a self defense move from the ARMOR program, enjoy local food and walk away with a party favor bag. Spin the prize wheel for a new backpack, pizza party, T-shirts, gift cards and a reusable string bag. For details, call (803) 403-9693.
Mackey offers health programs
Denyse Clark
The tri-county region – Lancaster, Chester and York – as well as the state, continues to experience a drastic drop in unemployment. That's really good news, officials say.
Denyse Clark
KERSHAW – The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and the S.C. Department of Health and Environmental Control held a public hearing Thursday, April 24 at the Kershaw Recreation Center to hear discussion for and against open pit mining for Haile Gold Mine.
United Way of Lancaster County
United Way of Lancaster County's Volunteer Income Tax Assistance (VITA) program has exceeded its 2014 goal of preparing 318 tax returns and refunding $405,550 back into the pockets of local residents who need it most.
The average cost of professional tax preparation is $120. Taking this into account, the VITA program helped to save clients approximately $38,160. That's a grand total of $443,710 in economic impact in Lancaster County.
Brian Garner
Landmark News Services
FORT LAWN – A job fair, co-sponsored by SC JUMMP (Jobs Upfront Mean More Pay) and DMSI Staffing, is 10 a.m. to 2 p.m. Friday, April 4, at the Fort Lawn Community Center (FLCC).
A representative from DMSI Staffing says there are about 200 positions to be filled and prospective job seekers can expect to go to work almost immediately.
The Catawba Regional Council of Governments (COG) recently released information about building permit trends in the tri-county region (Chester, Lancaster and York counties).
Copyright © 2019
The Lancaster News is your source for local news, sports, events, and information in Lancaster County and Lancaster, South Carolina, and the surrounding area..


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Director Roger Michell's Roger Michell stars Jim Broadbent and Lindsay Duncan as Nick and Meg, a British couple celebrating their 30th wedding anniversary with a weekend getaway in Paris. As they travel around the city, they revisit the highs and lows...more
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Kids Rule the Stage in ANNIE, JR. at EPAC, Now thru 2/10
Wanna escape your "Hard Knock Life"? Wanna restore your faith in a brighter "Tomorrow"? You can! All it takes is a ticket to Ephrata Performing Arts Center's annual Kids4Kids production of "Annie Jr.This special production of the megahit Broadway musical "Annie" (professionally tailored for young performers by Music Theatre International) features 67 kids, ages 6 to 15 - and, of course, an irresistible dog - all under the direction of Irving Gonzalez, director of last season's magical "Beauty & the Beast Jr.""Annie Jr." allows these budding theater talents of tomorrow to spread their wings beyond portraying the show's adorable orphans to take on all the "adult" roles: ranging from billionaire Daddy Warbucks to the nasty Miss Hannigan and even President Franklin Delano Roosevelt.
Show times are 7:30 p.m. Fridays, Feb. 1 and 8; 2 and 7:30 p.m. Saturdays, Feb. 2 and 9; and 2 p.m. Sundays, Feb. 3 and 10. Tickets are $10 ages 12 and under, $15 for adults. To reserve seats, visit ephrataperformingartscenter.com or call (717) 733-7966, Ext. 1.Ephrata Performing Arts Center at the Sharadin Bigler Theatre is located at 320 Cocalico St., Ephrata, Penn.


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Rifles augmented with chainsaws designed to cut through zombie hordes are old hat, so when Guns & Gardens set about making theirs, they wanted it to be different. Cuter, more adorable, and more appealing to your stereotypical tweenaged girl.
With their £65 budget (not including the rifle) they built the OMG-AR15 Unicorn from a Smith & Wesson M&P15 Sport with an inverted electric chainsaw hanging off the front. It does make the whole setup a little front heavy, but that's easy to ignore when you step back and behold the bright paint job adorned with stickers of everything from butterflies, to rainbows, to unicorns.
Hanging off the back you'll even find stylish shades, a small carry-all, and other precious adornments. It looks like the perfect accessory to hang over the headboard in a little girl's bedroom, and because it still fires and saws, you'll have the peace of mind knowing your daughter's protected at night. [BoingBoing via Geekosystem]


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Aye, Sgt. Hummer
Sgt. Maj. Dwayne Farr, Headquarters and Service Battalion sergeant major, reads aloud during the promotion ceremony for Sgt. Archibald Hummer, the Depot mascot, while Hummer's handler, Cpl. Russell Midori, stands at attention. Also present was Col. Brian Palmer, Headquarters and Service Battalion commanding officer. The promotion ceremony was on July 22 at the Public Affairs Office aboard Marine Corps Recruit Depot Parris Island.
Photo by Lance Cpl. Erin Ross/Special to Bluffton Today


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Archive for March, 2011
Ballet Room theme
A while back I did a post on ideas for a ballet room theme. I've updated it with some new mural ideas that we have available at the Magic Mural Factory and Wallstory Murals.
Ballet fans click here to read the full post
How to create a tree themed children's bedroom
Spring is on it's way and I've been thinking about tree murals and decorating children's rooms and nurseries with a tree theme.
I've found some lovely ideas that might inspire you to do the same for your child room.
The theme is gentle and timeless. Depending on the style you choose, the look could be equally at home in a baby nursery as a child's room.
Firstly the wall decor and of course murals in partcular
Your choices are to hire a mural artist to paint a mural for you
Stick on tree themed decals or wall stickers
Paint one yourself using a paint by number kit or tree stencil kit
and then there's ideas for other tree themed elements that you could incorporate around the room to tie the theme together.
The murals
Tree of Life Wall paper mural (Muralunique.com)
Birds and Tree (Cutting edge stencils)
The Bunny Tree Vinyl Wall Decal (WowWall)
Room Mates Scroll Tree Decal Megapac (Amazon)
Summer Tree Wall Decal (WowWall)
Love Bird Tree Paint By Number Mural (Wallstory Murals)(Magic Mural Factory)
Love Bird Tree Paint By Number Mural (Wallstory Murals)(Magic Mural Factory)
Willow tree and moon bunny sihouette mural (Paint by number Wallstory Murals)(Magic Mural Factory)
Feathery Friends paint by number mural (Magic Mural Factory)
The Magic Mural Factory has a selection of various paint by number tree murals to choose from
Other tree themed rooms accessories
Rustic Twig Headboard
Rustic Wooden Head board (Hearthwoods)
Tree Bench
Imagine this this rustic tree bench in your tree themed room.
A few brightly coloured cushions on it and it would make a wonderful feature in the room
(Natural Tree Furniture)
Tree themed Baby nursery
This nature-themed nursery was created for a client in Southern California, and features floor-to-ceiling custom items. The real tree branches, mingled with the tree and bird decals, are truly a spectacle!
Over the changing table, tree branch hooks carry cute little buckets to put all those bits and pieces needed for changing nappies (wipes, diapers, etc…).
Tree decals combined with real branches suspended from the ceiling create a place to hang little pictures and toys above the crib.
See the whole article on Little Crown Interiors
Make a rustic tree curtain pole
I found this image on In Home Design
There doesn't seem to be any instructions on how to make this so here are my suggestions.
How to Do it
Go for a walk in the country side and find yourself a lovely stick.
Make sure it is the correct width for your window plus some extra either side of the window.
Try and find a stick that is quite dry.
Paint the stick with an undercoat and then spray or paint it any colour you wish.
Use an acrylic paint intended for woodwork.
Purchase two curtain pole brackets that come in various shapes and forms.
Like this one below for example.
Attach the brackets to the wall add your painted branch and all that's left to do it attach your curtain.
Please note that because the branch may be twisted and 'branchy' you will might find that tie on curtains like the one in the picture above will be easier to install.
These curtains are better left open as a decorative feature rather than a functional curtain.
A blind on the actual window would be advisable to use in conjunction with the curtains.
Et Voila!
Tree Themed Shelves
I think this is charming and simple. I found it at Live Wire Farm .
If you are a bit handy I don't think it would be difficult to recreate the same idea.
How to Do it
Find two appropriately shaped branches.
Cut the back of each one flat so that they can be screwed flat against a wall.
Make sure that the tops are cut flat too so that your shelf can rest flat on the top.
Buy or find, or cut a shelf the length and depth you require
Mark where the supports touch the shelf and screw a couple of screws downwards into the branch brackets to keep it in place
Et voila!
Some more rustic shelf ideas to compliment the tree theme. I spotted this one on Design Sponge.
There are some instructions there too.
Tree themed coat hanging rack
I found this coat rack idea on The little things we do
Hang pretty flowery bags on the hooks to store toys or other bits and pieces, or simply hang coats on it!
Rustic Log shelves
Rachel's Rustic Log shelves. See how to make these on Design Sponge
Tree themed Beds
Slightly out of most of our budgets 😉 but it's so lovely I couldn't resist it You can find this at Atilladesign on Etsy
This is fun I found it at Raphael D'Amato
This is from Style of design
DIY Tree themed Beds
When I look at these beds, I think that with a little bit of thought you could make something similar.
What's to stop you screwing some lovely branches like the ones above to an existing bed to turn it into a tree themed four poster bed?
Or how about a canopy above the bed substituting the pole for a tree branch?
This post is becoming too long!!
The more I research the more ideas I find, so I'll stop here and do some separate posts on tree themed bedding, rugs and soft furnishings ideas.


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Tharold Sylvester Overseer
Tharold Sylvester was an WORKER in the 2x2 religion and worked in the state of Washington. This photo was cropped from a photo taken of him in Lakewood CA in 1985
Tharold Sylvester OVERSEER Washington
Tharold Sylvester was the OVERSEER in Washington and disliked by many. Here is another picture of him earlier in his business career.
Overseers - Home
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Start a Religion
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Wayne Dean
|To open their eyes, and to turn them from darkness to light, and from the power of Satan unto God, that they may receive forgiveness of sins, and inheritance among them which are sanctified by faith that is in me. - Jesus Christ speaking to Saul, see Act 26:18, see Salvation through Jesus Christ.


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Guru Naanak's Japji Sahib relates to the element of ether and helps us recognize ourselves as part of the One. How can we understand Japji better?
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Discover Rotorua & Taupo
Discover the wealth of activities and scenery in the heart of North Island with Discover The World and be inspired by some of our favourite "Must Dos"...
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The immensely varied landscapes of this acclaimed North Island region take in fertile farmlands, snow-capped volcanoes, steaming geothermal fields and crystal-clear trout-filled lakes. The region's hot spots, Rotorua and Lake Taupo, are peppered with fascinating geothermal areas.
- Experience a Maori concert & hangi
- Visit the incredible glow worm caves of Waitomo
- Discover Waimangu Volcanic Valley
- Take a jet boat ride to the stunning Huka Falls
- Walk the one-day Tongariro Crossing with a guide
- Bathe in the geothermal mineral pools
- Ride the gondola to the top of Mt Ngongotaha
Start planning your own New Zealand adventure today! At Discover The World we pride ourselves on our ability to tailor make a holiday to suit you. Simply contact us, give one of our accredited Tourism New Zealand Kiwi specialists an idea of your travel dates, interests and budget, and we will do the rest.
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Freelance Moms
Freelance Moms
Moms who work freelance or do independent consulting
Group founder: dancer | 202 members | 54 discussions
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This is a hip magazine that highlights WOMEN only! Female artists, female writers, female leaders, entrepreneurs, moms, families -- they profile five women each month in their print version, and they feature bloggers and a Muse of the Month online! Very fun, insightful, poignant, excellent writing and creative art. I blog for them, too, but I love everyone's writing and insight! Let me know what you think: I'm Ginger's Blog! at http://www.skirt.com/blog/1390/7by GR8TFUL MOM on 7th April 2008


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The awful things that could have happened had the United States intervened in Syria are now happening anyway. The insurrection has become a civil war. Neighboring countries are being dragged in. A refugee crisis has been created. Jihadists have entered the fray, and the death toll has passed 20,000. The worst has happened — maybe because the best did nothing.
Had Barack Obama committed the United States to get involved in a muscular fashion, the civil war in Syria might now be over. This, of course, is just a guess, open to the usual criticism and derision by foreign policy realists. But it is not all that unrealistic to presume that had the United States hit Syria's command and control centers, the defection of generals and other officials would have become a stampede. Nothing so illuminates an exit sign as the certainty of defeat.
That certainty, predicted by just about everyone in the Obama administration for more than a year now, has somehow yet to come to pass. This is because the Syrian army has stayed with the regime of Bashar al-Assad not out of any love for him but because it fears the alternative. By letting the situation fester, the United States and its anti-Assad allies (Saudi Arabia, Turkey, etc.) have allowed the fight to become a sectarian one. The major rift in the Middle East is not between Israelis and Arabs but between Sunnis and Shiites. In this fight, Syria is becoming the latest battleground.
At the moment, planes are flying over Syria and dropping bombs. Unfortunately, they are Syrian military aircraft bombing their own people. This could be stopped. The United States, NATO and others under the rubric of Friends of Syria have the capacity to implement a no-fly zone — and to do it fast. Grounding Syria's air force and helicopter gunships would not only aid the opposition but also send a strong message to the regime and its supporters that their days are numbered. As things stand, those days are not numbered, and the end is in doubt. For example, Aleppo has apparently been retaken by Syrian forces loyal to Assad.
It is true enough that the outcome of the civil war may not benefit the United States or, for that matter, Israel — even if it represents a black eye for Assad's backer, Iran. If the mostly Sunni insurgents win, they may well impose an Islamist regime and turn, with ferocity, on the Shiites (and their allies, the Alawites) as well as the Christians, 10 percent of the population. And an Islamist Syria would be a more implacable foe of Israel's than the secular Assad regime. The chances of this happening only improve the longer the war goes on and jihadists from all over the Islamic world join the fight. Time is not on our side.
The reluctance of the Obama administration to apply some muscle to its (mostly) rhetorical support of the Syrian opposition has only worsened matters. At first, the administration seemed to hope that the dreamy plan advanced by former U.N. secretary general Kofi Annan would work. Now, it is supplying communications equipment and, one would hope, some military and civilian advisers, but it has shied from imposing a no-fly zone or using air power to hit some strategic military and governmental targets.
The thinking is that Syria is a mess, a stew of mutually hostile ethnic groups. Moreover, its Russian-provided air defense system must be taken into account. As I have noted before, Israel took that system into account when it bombed a Syrian nuclear facility in 2007 — and got away with no loss of aircraft. If Obama had the will, the Pentagon could find the way.
Opponents of U.S. intervention say that the United States has no urgent reason to get involved in Syria. For the moment, they have a point. But the spread of the fighting will threaten neighboring countries — Jordan and Lebanon, in particular — and further destabilize the Middle East. In addition, the opportunity to end what amounts to slaughter ought to be seized. Someone has to tell thugs that they cannot save their skins by the wholesale murder of their own people. Exile is a better choice.
Already, the bad things that were predicted had the United States done something bold in Syria are coming to pass. More than 130,000 refugees have fled into neighboring countries, and civilians continue to die. Residential areas have been leveled by artillery and now by bombs. The opposition is calling for a no-fly zone. If anyone is calling the White House, that phone will ring and ring. When it comes to Syria, there's no one home.


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WASHINGTON, Oct. 26 (UPI) -- Americans will eat an estimated 25 pounds of candy per-capita this year, while pumpkin growers will produce more than 1 billion pounds of the holiday gourds.
Illinois produced an estimated 427 billion pounds of pumpkins in 2010, with California, New York and Ohio each cultivating more than 100 million pounds of the Halloween porch staple, the U.S. Census Bureau said in a release Wednesday, citing Department of Agriculture figures.
Ninety-two percent of respondents to a 2005 survey said their neighborhoods are safe, and 78 percent said they had no fear of walking anywhere within a mile of their homes -- good news for the potential 41 million trick-or-treaters ages 5 to 14 who choose to walk door to door in search of sweets.
More than 1,100 manufacturing establishments employing more than 34,000 people made chocolate and cocoa products in 2009, led by California and Pennsylvania, and per-capita consumption of candy in 2010 was 24.7 pounds, the bureau said.
Also in 2009, more than 1,700 costume rental companies offered Halloween enthusiasts the opportunity to disguise themselves in style. The Census Bureau suggested Transylvania County, N.C., Tombstone, Ariz., and Skull Creek, Neb., as great places to enjoy the holiday.


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One of the most facinating cathedrals in Italy. With its white and black stribed marbel facade it is a wide seen eye-catching building. On the surronding Piazza del Duomo it is always crowdy with people from all over the world admireing the cathedral.
The Tuscany, one of the most beautiful Italian regions, is known throughout the world for its Landscapes and for the Works of Art that it houses (It is the birthplace of the Italian Renaissance). Six localities have been designated World Heritage Sites: the Historical Center of Florence, Siena, San Gimignano and Pienza, the Square of the Cathedral of Pisa with the Leaning Tower and the Val d'Orcia. It is in the central Italy and borders with Emilia Romagna (north), Marche and Umbria (east) and Lazio (South). The West coast is bathed from the Ligurian and Tyrrhenian Sea; here we can find the islands of the Tuscan archipelago including the island of Elba. The regional capital is Florence and the other provinces are: Arezzo, Grosseto, Livorno, Lucca, Massa, Pisa, Pistoia, Prato and Siena.


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"Gobs of cornmeal are fed into an extruder , which rubs the meal between two metal plates. The friction melts the starch in the corn and causes the moisture to heat up...
...When it passes its boiling point, the meal "pops," creating the Cheetos shape. The craggy bits are then spit out of the extruder, flying 3 feet at high velocity before hitting a safety cage and dropping onto a conveyor belt."
This, my friends, is poetry. This, my friends, is a miracle. This, my friends, is how Cheetos are made. [Wired]
And this, my friends, is how Cheetos are consumed.


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MIAMI GARDENS, Fla. -- Let's go ahead get this straight. The two things that were true about Northern Illinois before Tuesday's Orange Bowl beatdown were true after: They absolutely deserved to be here, and they absolutely didn't belong.
For all the complaints about Northern Illinois getting a BCS bid out of the Mid-American Conference despite a season-opening loss to a bad Iowa team, the debate was fraudulent. Northern Illinois was one of the six highest-rated conference champions in the BCS formula, and thus its trip here was earned just as fairly as Florida State's.
Having said that, Florida State was better – much better – and the 31-10 final score could have been far more lopsided had the Seminoles not indulged their decade-long habit of squandering opportunities against lesser competition.
BOX SCORE: Florida State 31, Northern Illinois 10
The Seminoles out-gained Northern Illinois 534-259 and generally made quarterback Jordan Lynch look foolish, holding him to 44 rushing yards and 15-of-41 passing after he proclaimed last week that the Seminoles' defense "hadn't seen anything like our offense" in an interview with The Sporting News. For what it's worth, Northern Illinois coach Rod Carey commandeered a question about that directed at Lynch, coming off as a condescending grump while accusing the writer of that article of "both" taking the quotes out of context and reporting them inaccurately.
So that's how this Orange Bowl will be remembered, to the extent it's remembered at all: As the game where the MAC quarterback shot his mouth off and the game where the MAC school got beaten on pretty much every front.
BOWL SCHEDULE: Dates, times and results for every matchup
But it didn't have to turn out that way. Indeed, for a tiny sliver of the third quarter, it seemed like Northern Illinois had a chance to deliver a Cinderella performance just like Boise State over Oklahoma in 2007 and Utah over Alabama in 2009. For about a 10-minute stretch of real time, Northern Illinois didn't just belong, it was on the verge of something incredible.
"I feel like if we would have capitalized on the onside kick, the game would have went a different way," receiver Martel Moore said. "But it didn't."
At the moment Northern Illinois scored to pull within 17-10, it had no business being in the game. The Seminoles had dominated time of possession, out-gained Northern Illinois 328-110 in the first half and came close on several occasions to delivering a knockout blow. But with one touchdown drive, the entire momentum of the game changed. And when Northern Illinois had the temerity to not only try but successfully execute an onsides kick, it was a double-whammy to a Florida State team with a history of being fragile under pressure.
"Play to win, you know, that's what you've got to do," Carey said. "I think it fits. "We're playing to win, and we saw some things, we knew we had it, and gosh darn it kids executed it, and we were right there to do it."
For a team like Northern Illinois, though, the moment is fleeting. You take advantage of it and you're the next Boise. You don't, and you're forgotten like the Hawaii team that got overwhelmed by Georgia in the 2008 Sugar Bowl.
What would have happened over the game's final 20 minutes if Northern Illinois had tied it? Nobody will ever know. But a series of plays almost allowed us to find out. Lynch actually drove Northern Illinois to a pair of first downs, throwing a scrambling pass to Tommylee Lewis on third-and-6 down to Florida State's 25-yard line.
But the dream basically ended there. Two plays later, on third-and-8, Lynch danced in the pocket looking for a receiver, took off to his right and then threw a pass down the sideline. Florida State safety Terrence Brooks stepped in front of it for an interception, and that was pretty much that.
"I was like, 'Did he really just throw that?' " Brooks said. "I couldn't believe it."
Florida State was pretty much done messing around after that play, and the score seemed to balloon from 17-10 to 31-10 in short order. Though Carey said that "wasn't the defining moment," it was clear to Northern Illinois' players that their best chance – and perhaps only chance – to win an almost unwinnable game had passed.
"You definitely want to get points when you get that onside kick," linebacker Victor Jacques said. "Not being able to do it was a little letdown."
As a result, history will forever show that the MAC school came to South Florida and lost by three touchdowns to a much better team. That's the right story, the accurate story. But just like the notion that Northern Illinois didn't deserve to be here, it's not the complete story, either.
PHOTOS: All the action from the 2012-13 bowl games


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The eastern part of San Diego County is a mix of urban and rural communities and a diverse wilderness of mountains, lakes and canyons that provide for endless outdoor activities. Both the 600,000-acre Anza-Borrego Desert State Park and Cleveland National...View all details about East County
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Every day is a denim day
Dr. Denim is your family. Your friend. Your every day companion. Someone you can turn to in every situation. Just like a perfect pair of jeans. Dr. Denim creates affordable staples to live your lifein, whether heading for a casual lunch, a wedding, the meeting or even to bed. Denim is always there with you. Extend yourself with a fashionably functional wardrobe that never lets you down, that breaks borders and makes room for life. Every day is a denim day.
This written statement is a promise about innovation, knowledge and valuable quality. It's a promise about the future and all those who share it with Dr. Denim. This framework states the parameters which ensure that Dr. Denim delivers on this promise and creates denim for every day - pieces to live your life in. Street-smart product development and perfectly fitted jeans is the way forward. Every day is a denim day. This is where our heart is, this is our belief and this is Dr. Denim.
And we've actually done it many times."
And so it began.
In a basement outside the port city of Gothenburg, Sweden, two brothers dreamt of creating denim rooted in the present while stretching beyond seasons and traditional design. With an aim at the unknown and an ambition to cross borders by adding new values to a piece of fabric, the mission was set. Inspired by their grandpa who always saw beyond obstacles and further, they started to solve the impossible equation. From this courage and dedication Dr. Denim was raised — a brand to trust whether you need elegance or function. With a character where persistence, smart choices and humility have been passed down for generations, Dr. Denim has taken form as an uncompromised denim brand where perfect fit, price and total experience reach far beyond seams and buttons.
The brothers Alexander and Johannes Graah and their father Morten founded Dr. Denim 2004 in Gothenburg. The company has since then been run as a linear family business without hierarchies where blood is not thicker than water. Every individual's engagement and well-being is of greatest importance and run as a core through the organization. The familiar and permissive climate creates a dynamic and personal atmosphere where the collective skills are highly recognized. Dr. Denims values are found in the company's corners where community, innovation and development are leading lights.


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Discovered in the late 1960s in Tanzania, and found exclusively in this tiny area of the world, tanzanite exhibits a rich violet-blue color for which the gemstone is treasured; often it is heat-treated to achieve this color. Colors range from blue to purple. Tanzanite gems that are medium dark in tone, vivid in saturation, with slightly violet blue hues command premium prices. As tanzanite can be less expensive than sapphire, it has often been purchased as an alternative. However, it has increased in popularity and now is valued more for its own beauty and brilliance than as a sapphire substitute.
Caring for your tanzanite jewelry is a simple process that will ensure that your gemstone maintains its beautiful sparkle. The best way to keep your gem clean is to bring it to your local Helzberg Diamonds store for a complimentary cleaning and inspection. At home, you can brighten your tanzanite jewelry by gentling wiping the gemstone with a jewelry polishing cloth and warm water.