text:
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text:
New demands on the type of work you do require new types of drawings. Depending on what your goals are, you could benefit from a new type of drawing software.
Although software use is increasing throughout the electrical industry, many of us still don't use software for design, data visualization, or collaboration. This is unfortunate, because much of this software can contribute dramatically to the bottom line.
Technical drawing software is one of the software categories you should take a serious look at. Those who use technical drawing software to create, maintain, and update electrical drawings benefit from increased accuracy, decreased design time, lower costs of design and construction, increased profits, and a competitive edge over those who don't use it.
What is technical drawing? Technical drawing (or diagramming) is a relatively new variation of conventional CAD, and it fits squarely between traditional 2-D and 3-D. When CAD arrived on the scene, it promised and delivered increased accuracy and efficiency for visually depicting physical objects in two dimensions. Since then, CAD has gone beyond the physical display of objects to include automation of non-CAD-related processes through integration with compatible software.
Technical drawing fills the gap between traditional 2-D and 3-D. While technical drawing software displays physical representations in 2-D, it foregoes traditional 2-D geometry to produce a drawing. Instead, it uses objects with context sensitive behavior and other intelligence that rivals even the most sophisticated 3-D CAD applications (see sidebar below).
Several software applications are now available for functional design, physical design, and asset tracking. However, few affordable software applications integrate all of these capabilities. The most effective available technology combines an interactive graphical interface with links to pertinent data for a comprehensive, yet easy-to-learn-and-use technical drawing environment. Of the technical drawing packages available today, the most widely known are Actrix Technical 2000, from Autodesk, and Visio 2000 Technical Edition, from Microsoft.
Sample scenarios. Let's walk through scenarios suited for today's technical drawing applications.
• You are designing the power distribution system for manufacturing equipment. Another team already designed the mechanical components, using a popular 3-D CAD solid modeling application. Your primary challenge is to create a 2-D electrical drawing to represent the components (bus, transformers, panels, conduit, and wiring) each piece of equipment needs. Traditionally, we identified components by description, size, and part number, but now you can easily add a customer-pleasing value-added twist to this process. You provide links to maintenance procedures, installation instructions, photographs of the final installation, and even suppliers' Web pages.
You insert a 2-D view of the 3-D CAD model into the technical drawing session for reference. Using the drag and drop method, you select intelligent, industry-specific content to represent each component. Intelligent connectors automatically snap, orient, and align in accordance with established conventions. You add hyperlinks to the 2-D electrical drawing to create that extra value-added content mentioned earlier.
• You're doing a turnkey design on a new instrumentation system for monitoring the performance of an existing plant. Another team laid out the main and secondary plant processes. This information is available as 2-D CAD-generated Piping and Instrumentation Diagrams (P&IDs). Your goal is to use the existing P&IDs to represent the process piping, add the instrumentation, and create a material take-off for procuring the required instrumentation components.
You insert the P&ID into the technical drawing session as an interactive background. You drag intelligent objects representing instrumentation system components (such as piping, tubing, instruments, and electrical controls) into position. They automatically snap, align, and orient correctly with respect to the background P&ID. Next, you generate a report including pertinent information such as description, manufacturer, and cost. You export this to a spreadsheet to automate the procurement process.
• You're laying out and wiring the light fixtures, lighting controls, receptacles, data jacks, and other electrical devices in an office complex. Your task is to display the electrical system components with respect to the floor plan so your client can review the configuration to ensure the arrangement satisfies their needs. Traditionally, this is one of the most irritating tasks in office construction because the client can't visualize the changes.
As in the previous examples, you insert the floor plan into the technical drawing session as an interactive background. Then, you insert electrical symbols representing receptacles and other devices into the drawing by merely dragging content from the content catalog. Symbols snap, orient, and align automatically to the CAD background. Within a single drawing session, you and your client evaluate multiple electrical system configurations for convenience and consistency with customers' needs. You even compare the costs of alternative designs by placing alternative layouts on different layers. You incorporate client-requested changes immediately, by dragging the symbol to the new location while associated components remain connected.
• You're managing a technician crew routing cable for a new voice and data telecommunications system. Your goal is to show the completed network so the IT department may subsequently use the network diagram when diagnosing problems.
You use combinations of drawings, layers, and hyperlinks to group portions of the network into logical groups for convenience when diagnosing network problems. You automate the work order process, using the available customization tools. To make the system even more functional, you set up a context-sensitive command to display a standard form. This form automatically populates selected fields with properties - such as component ID and location - obtained from the selected object. Now an operator can add instructions or other information, then submit the form directly to the appropriate department for corrective action.
Because "faster, cheaper, better" is what more customers expect, they turn increasingly to the contractors who can deliver the best mix of these factors. To compete, you can't just work harder - most of us are working about as hard as we can now. You must leverage your existing strengths, and software is one way to do that. You don't need every software package out there, but you do need the right mix.
Sidebar: Notable Features, Capabilities, and Benefits
Here are some of the features, capabilities, and benefits of today's "Best of Breed" technical drawing and data visualization applications.
• Drag and drop drawing creation is much more efficient than conventional CAD options, and enables those with no prior CAD exposure to immediately become productive.
• Logically groups thousands of industry-specific intelligent objects.
• Intelligent connectors remain connected and aligned. This allows you to maintain relationships between objects when you edit the drawing.
• Publishing drawings to the Web allows collaboration with suppliers and clients - not just those typically involved in the design process.
• Hyperlinks allow you to associate objects with technical drawings, other documents, photographs, and Web pages.
• The ability to insert CAD files into a technical drawing session enables you to extend CAD data throughout the design process.
• Built-in property reporting automates generation of material take-offs, work orders, purchase orders, and similar documents.
• Interactive shape authoring allows you to convert graphics to intelligent objects.
• A powerful Application Programming Interface (API), an effective event handler, and built-in VBA combine to maximize the ease of satisfying requirements unique to a particular project.

subset: commoncrawl


text:
Avg. Saving £19.48
Number claimed: 9
* Average saving based on two adults and two childrenStart trial for £1 Already a member? Login to claim Share offer with friends
"Bake a better pizza and the world will beat a path to your door." That maxim has been at the heart of our thinking at Papa John's since our founder, John Schnatter, baked his first pizzas back in 1972 for the customers in his father's tavern in Indiana.
What's the secret of Papa John's success? Is it preparing a better dough? Using better ingredients? Employing better people? Being committed to delivering 'a better pizza experience'? Truth is, it's all of those elements. And together, they help us continue to make Papa John's a consistently and reliably 'Better Pizza'.
We want the whole world to love our pizzas as much as we do. That's why we're all about the attention to detail, the focus on quality, the refusal to compromise on delivering the best pizza (and the best pizza experience) that we possibly can. And all around the world, the tens of thousands of great people who work with Papa John's share that same vision.
After all, there's an awful lot of hungry Papa John's lovers out there, counting on us to get it right, every time!
Offer entitles the customer to buy any pizza and get one pizza up to the same size and value free. Excludes small pizzas. Available 21 May - 30 Nov 2018.This offer is not available in conjunction with any other offers. Valid in participating stores only. Offer available at participating stores only and excludes Butlins, Haven Holiday Parks, Ribby Hall Village, Welcome Break, Planet Ice, on campus stores and Ireland. Offer ends 30 Nov 2018


text: Though many of us appreciate that there's been little snow shoveling this year and we've yet to step into a puddle and get frigid street slush in our boot, some people aren't so happy about the bizarre lack of snow. Currently only 19% of the country is covered in snow, which is less than half of the average snow cover we've had in the past five years. The AP reports that the dearth of icy precipitation has "turned life upside down," for businesses that rely on winter tourism and is costing tens of millions of dollars. For a brief overview of the problem, watch the 1954 film White Christmas. In fact, someone should try rallying the old gang and singing a song about how much fun it was to fight in World War II, because that seems to make snow magically appear.


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Sega has quietly launched the beta version of their online gaming portal / social networking site PlaySega.com. The site features a handful of casual games to poke at, including Sonic at the Olympic Games, which seems to be a port of the mobile phone version of the Official Beijing Olympics tie-in. Visitors to the site will be able to create their own personalised escape using items purchased through the website's ring currency, which you must play games to earn. I've already created my own escape, which is apparently a Swiss Chalet containing a small naked boy. Alrighty.
According to Casualgaming.biz, Sega plans to add over 30 new games to the site, many of which dip into the company's classic IP for inspiration. Hit the link below to check out the site. Registration is completely free, but the naked boy in Swiss Chalet feature will set you back 2,000 rings.
PlaySega.com [Official Site via Casualgaming.biz]


text:
This designer 14 karat yellow gold wave design band is definitely a masterpiece. Measuring 5mm wide, this comfort fit band is made with the ultimate in craftmanship and quality.
NOTE: This designer wedding band is custom made to order. Therefore please allow up to 2 weeks to manufacture before shipment. For rush shipments please contact customer service. This ring is also available in a variation of metals, colors & widths. Available metals include all gold types, platinum, palladium, titanium and steel. Please contact customer service with any questions, for a free ring sizer or any special order requests.
Metal Type: 14 Karat Yellow Gold
Ring Width: 5mm
Fit: Comfort Fit
This product hasn't received any reviews yet. Be the first to review this product!


text:
.....be defined by the Left/Liberals/Democrats/Progressives/Socialists/Communists as a "War on Women" or a "War on Minorities" or that would not be deemed to "have a greater impact on women and minorities"?
The only one I can think of is "the Millitary". So other than that?
For example:
By the way, what happened to the (D) led request for civility and an end to "millitaristic" langauge in politics? Describing their opponenst as "Generals in a War"? Is that supposed to be less aggressive that designative a political opponent as "targeted for defeat"?California Senator Barbara Boxer claimed yesterday that Republicans have a "sickness" when it comes to women, and decried the party's efforts to defund women's healthcare.
In a speech to Planned Parenthood in San Jose, Boxer told those in attendance that the mainstream of the GOP is "extreme on women's health." She suggested that Missouri Senator Todd Akin's recent comments reflect views that are well represented in the party at large, and are distressingly in evidence on the Romney-Ryan ticket.
"There is a war against women, and Romney and Ryan if they are elected would become its top generals," said Boxer, "and it's not going to end until we all say at the polls, 'That's not the country we want.'"
So really, what can we cut in Govt. that we could guarantee wouldn't be described as part of a War of Women and Minorities (and Kids)? What could we reduce the rate of increae from +7% to only +6.8% and not be described as hateful, racist, homophobic, sexists for?
And the reverse, at what point does adding new women and minorities to public aid programs become inappropriate and hence denail not a "war on Women and Minroities"? Is it 50% of them? 75%? 100%?
If so, it would be nice to have that honest conevrsatiom about it.
Roll back spending to 2008 levels in ALL departments.
Eliminate ALL education loan subsidies and loans.
If a person wants to go to college, let daddy put up his house as collateral. Or perhaps people could consider saving. Or go into the military and get assistance for school. I hear that the bonuses for infantrymen are pretty good.
As for everything else - accross the board reductions. salary freezes in government for everybody. No more GSA boondoggles. No fancy meetings - teleconferences.
More recently the law was expanded to cover cell phone service because of course every person in America had the RIGHT to a free cell phone. Well if the programs mere existince isn't absurd enough a recent report showed that the cost of the law had grown from around 1/2 billion per year to 4 billion since adding the cell phone component. Further investigation showed that people were using the credit to purchase prepaid cell phones and resell them. Apparently the law allows for the purchase of a new prepaid phone each month. Basically wellfare recipients are abusing the system to profit for themselves. A bill was brought up in the senate to elliminate the cell phone portion of the entitlement and it was shelved by the Democrats. Even the most blatant of wasteful and fraudulent programs could not be adjusted when the Democrats run the show.
As an interesting side note the yearly savings from cutting off the free cell phones is equal to the yearly revenue of Obamas revolutionary Buffet rule.
Just imagine Boxer's mother didn't want children? What a wonderful world!
Increase the SS collection age.
Replace welfare, except for single mothers, with a public works program.
Lengthen the school day and year without giving teacher's raises.
ethanol subsidies
Department of Homeland Security - redundant with FBI/NSA/Law Enforcement
US postal service
This is just off the top of my head. And of course, I would love to cut that military budget...
Top of my head I would say get rid of the post office.What is it an 8 billion dollar a year loss?You can get your bills by e-mail.The only mail I get anymore is junk mail.
Are there any deductions in the tax code that Republicans can actually name to get rid of in order to reduce rates? Complaining about politicians building their majorities around different constituencies that they in turn take care of seems to ignore our actually Constitutional system.
Last edited by Winstonbiggs; 08-24-2012 at 06:48 AM.
They already do some of this stuff now. Child credits and such in the tax code phase out with families making over a certain amount. Expand it to all the deductions. The system is cleaner when the code is simplified.
How about eliminating the tax exempt status for religious institutions as well?
EPA? Lol, no chance that isn;t described as hurting women , children and minorities more.
Agriculture? Same.
Interior? If it's only parks, maybe, depends on what parks. If any women, child or minority lives within 50 mins, sorry, no, the usual argument will in fact be used.
I'll go one further, all institutions, including so-called advocacy groups and the like.


text:
Peabody-Burns First grade
I want Mario Gold and Call of Duty: Black Ops. Can Rudolph fly? I hope you have a merry Christmas!
Your friend,
Jace Newman
I want a saddle for Christmas. Santa, does Rudolph show the way when it is foggy? My elf named Walk ripped my TV when he fell.
Your friend,
Logan Esau
I want the Xbox game and Call of Duty. Santa, how do you get in my house? Does Rudolph have a red nose?
Your friend,
Tavin Monares
I want a Baby Alive doll. Santa, is it true that Rudolph has a red nose? Santa, Elfis the elf wrapped toilet paper around my Christmas tree.
Your friend,
Alyssa Holt
How are your elves? May I have a fishing pole? I like to fish at the big lake. Thanks, Santa.
Your friend,
Preston Hiebert
I want a Xbox 360. I want a zombie game. How do your elves make toys? I like Rudolph the reindeer.
Your friend,
Trevor Johnson
I would like the Cinderella movie, princess dresses, and Legos. I like your reindeer. What is your favorite milk, white or chocolate?
Your friend,
Stacy Sattler
I want a 3DS. I want a Bratzillaz Doll. How does the reindeer's nose glow?
Your friend,
Bella Bedell
I want a RC remote control car for Christmas. How do the reindeer fly? I also want a DS.
Your friend,
Ashton Percival
I want Barbie, and a dream house, and a new note pad. How bright does Rudolph's nose glow? What do reindeer eat?
Your friend,
Symphony King
I would like a kitchen set, Barbie set, and a reindeer. I like your clothes very much. What is your favorite type of cookies and milk, white or chocolate?
Your friend,
Audrey Bowlin
I hope I get a lot of presents. I hope I get a lot of toy horses. Does Rudolph's nose glow?
Your friend,
Roselynn Moore
Last modified Dec. 21, 2012


text:
The future of Earth is long since here and nothing's...
Shadows of the Mind
- by Megites Nightshade
- Rating:
- Published: 8 Feb 2014
- Updated: 8 Oct 2014
- Status: In Progress
An insight into the mind of Sherlock Holmes. Post-Reinchenbach but pre-series 3. Not quite sure where it is going yet. :) Rated yellow for reference to childhood abuse and misuse of drugs.
Join MovellasFind out what all the buzz is about. Join now to start sharing your creativity and passion
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text:
Hexham Silver Mirror (36" x 26") By Spires Studio
Product Type: Framed bevelled mirror which is manufactured complete with fittings to enable them to be hung either portrait or landscape style.
Outer Frame Size: 36" x 26"
Mirror Size: 30" x 20"
Artist: Spires Studio
Spires Studio is a collaboration of artists, crafts people & designers who have always worked in the creative industry. Born in county Tyrone on the 8th of Feb 1988, we started life in humble surroundings on the outskirts of Omagh town.
We have always worked in the fields of art, design, sculpture, painting, fused glass, framing and graphics throughout Ireland, the UK and internationally from Ethiopia to America and even Switzerland, not to mention Cruise Liners on the Med.
Based in a truly unique wagon topped building with a brook running below our artisans create lots of wild, weird & wonderful things many sold on a totally exclusive bases. Lead by Colm, Damien & Leona for almost 30 years, the business has gone from strength to strength and Spires artworks can be seen in many locations around the globe.
Our vision has always been to create 'art for all'
More from this collection
© 2018 Spires Art Group.All rights reserved.


text:
About multisiteinfo.pl perl script
multisiteinfo; multisite; multisiteinfo.pl; multisite info; 1125539; 1450991; what is it used for
Technote (FAQ)
What is the IBM® Rational® ClearCase MultiSite® diagnostic script multisiteinfo.pl, how does it work and what is its purpose?
The multisiteinfo.pl script is used to collect MultiSite related information to assist in diagnosing MultiSite issues.
perl multisiteinfo.pl -site=<site designation> -vobtag=<vob tag>
[-showdeleted] [-help] [-force_os={win32,unix}]
Note: This is the usage for the most current version of multisiteinfo.pl
This perl script is intended to be given to customers by Rational support. It collects general information that we need for all MultiSite support calls. It will print a banner containing the site string followed by output from the following commands.
- cleartool -verall
- multitool -verall
- cleartool lsvob <vob_tag>
- cleartool describe <vob_tag>
- cleartool dump <vob_tag>
- cleartool lsreplica -long
- multitool lsepoch
- For each replica found in step 6
- cleartool describe -long replica:<replica_name>
- cleartool dump -long replica:<replica_name>
- uname on UNIX & ver on Windows
- Will also include information about the Sync Manager such as a multitool syncserver -inquire -vob $vob_tag if running the script on a host with ClearCase 2003.06.14 (Service Release 4 on Windows or MultiSite patch 6 on UNIX) or later.
- You must supply a string identifying the "site".
Note: You may choose any string name. The script expects to be run in a view in the VOB tag for the replica at the site given as an argument.
perl multisiteinfo.pl -site=<site designation> -vobtag=<vob tag>
- site = The site from which you are running the script
- vobtag = The local VOB tag for the replica family
Windows Example:
Z:\Testvob>ccperl "c:\program files\rational\clearcase\etc\utils\multisiteinfo.pl" -site=Boston_Hub -vobtag=\Testvob >Boston_Hub_Testvob_msinfo.txt
UNIX/Linux Example:
/view/vobs/Testvob>Perl /usr/atria/etc/utils/multisiteinfo.pl -site=Boston_Hub -vobtag=/Testvob >Boston_Hub_Testvob_msinfo.txt
- The script is automatically shipped with ClearCase MultiSite 2003.06.00 or later in the %CCHOME%\etc\utils directory on Microsoft Windows, Linux and UNIX.
- Attached to this technote
- Use multisiteinfo.pl if you wish to run the script without the requirement for a view/vob context
- Use multisiteinfo_old.pl if you are running the script on a ClearCase MultiSite version prior to 2003.06.00 to collect the data.
Note: If using multisiteinfo_old.pl, the usage of the script is slightly different as follows:
perl <path-to-multisiteinfo_old.pl> <site name> <vob tag> <redirect output>
You must be in a view/VOB context to run this version.
- Choose which version of the script to use (installed or attached version).
Note: Copy the attached script to the %CCHOME%\etc\utils directory and rename the original copy if it exists.
- Use ccperl on Windows and Perl on UNIX and Linux.
- Run the script at all the sites of the replicated VOB for a given family and send the output Rational Customer Support.
Related information
Unable to determine OS error running multisiteinfo.pl
Japanese technote
Document information
More support for:
Rational ClearCase
Utilities and Tools
Software version: 7.0, 7.0.1, 7.1, 7.1.1, 7.1.2, 8.0
Operating system(s): AIX, HP-UX, Linux, Solaris, Windows
Reference #: 1125539
Modified date: 06 March 2012


text:
Kings of New York 6...November 1st, 2009... save the date
this an announcement for our upcoming Event on November...please take your time reading short details and ...Check out the Preview trailer..let us know what you think....Thank you.
Time: 2pm to 1am
Location: St. Mark's Church
in the corner of E 10th and 2nd Ave.
This year we will have 16 teams for 8 on 8 Breakin'
16 people for 1 on 1 Poppin'
We've added a new category of 32 people for 1 on 1 House
Registration starts at 2:00pm and battle starts at 4:30pm sharp! So come early and come prepared to give your best!
We are also celebrating women at this Kings of New York. We'll honor Evelyn Santos, Miss Twist, Violet (Kr3t), Peaches, and Marjorie for their contributions to the community.
You can e-mail us at firstname.lastname@example.com for press inquiries or if you have any questions! Thank you for your time. We hope to see you in November! Until then, practice, practice and practice!
Kings of New York Team
*Kings of New York is a community based organization which formed in 2003. Our mission is to preserve, as well as to educate the world about the culture that New York style of dance brings.
Monday, September 7, 2009
Kings of New York 6
Kings of New York 6...November 1st, 2009... save the date
Posted by Full-Time at 5:21 PM 3 comments Links to this post
Labels: bboy, Bboying, bgirl, crew bboy battle, dance community, dance competition, House battle, House dance, Kings of New York, kny 2009, Kny team, Kwikstep, New York events, NYC, Popping battle


text:
List all publications or search for a specific publication. Select publications are available to order through the National Criminal Justice Reference Service OJP Publications page.
OJJDP produces numerous publications and products each year. Here
are some of our recent releases:
Several OJJDP publications are now available in e-book format.
Access a complete list of
OJJDP publications, where you can link to HTML and PDF formats,
or narrow your search using the Publications
Search page.
The Types of Publications page
describes OJJDP's publications. To expand your search to include
both criminal and juvenile justice, visit the online library of
the National Criminal Justice Reference Service.
USA.gov | Privacy | Policies & Disclaimers | FOIA | Site Map | Contact Us | Stay Connected
A component of the Office of Justice Programs, U.S. Department of Justice


text:
The Knicks struggled to get by the Wizards in Washington earlier this season. Tonight, the Bockers will go to battle without their two superstars, Carmelo Anthony and Amar'e Stoudemire. Enter the Jeremy Lin show. The Knicks whirling dervish of a point guard has been simply unbelievable the past two games, averaging 26.5 points per game and 7.5 assists per game. Also a key contributor as of late, Jared Jeffries has been nothing short of fantastic the past couple of games. The Knicks will need both players to step up if they are going to beat the floundering Wizards tonight.
Here's what to watch for:
- Tyson Chandler's foul trouble. With the Knicks having both Stoudemire and Anthony out, the Knicks will once again lean upon their big money center. Chandler has had a fantastic season this year, averaging 11.4 ppg and 9.9 rebounds per game. Obviously the Knicks won't post up Chandler, as his post moves are worse than Charles Barkley's golf swing, but they can get him easy points on alley oop dunks and the pick and roll. Chandler must stay out of foul trouble tonight in order to make an impact. The Knicks were able to get by Utah on Monday with Chandler playing 22 minutes but I don't like their chances if their center can't stay on the court.
- How will Lin fare on the road? Obviously Lin has been phenomenal the past two games but both games have been played at Madison Square Garden. Lin admitted to feeding off the garden crowd. That is all well and good and I love that the home crowd fires him up but I am interested to see what happens on the road. Now having to root for a pathetic Wizards team may drive the poor DC crowd to actually root FOR Lin but regardless he will not get nearly the same support on the road. I want to see what happens if he struggles a bit and doesn't have the home backing to fire him up. I'm not saying Lin will struggle but this is a new page in his book. The emergence at the garden has passed and now Lin must perform on the road. There isn't a better matchup for Lin to prove himself against then the 5-20 Wizards. Obviously John Wall will be a formidable opponent but Lin didn't seem to have any problem staying in front of Deron Williams. I don't expect him to have a problem against the wildly overrated John Wall.
- How will New York's energy be tonight? The Knicks always seem to play up or down to the competition. They'll beat a good team like Boston in the opener and then they'll go to Golden State and lose. They've lost to Phoenix and Charlotte and Toronto at home but they can beat the Jazz without Anthony and Stoudemire. How will the Knicks effort be tonight against arguably the worst team in basketball. The Wizards haven't been good since the days of Gilbert Arenas bussin guns in the locker room. The Wizards are the epitome of disfunction. They don't play smart basketball. They have guys (yes, I'm talking about you Andray Blatche) who couldn't spell defense much less play any of it. Rashard Lewis collects his fat contract money and then gives preschool level effort. The Wizards are a joke and they suck. Even without STAT and Melo the Knicks should win tonight. If not, I'll go join Gilbert Arenas in a halfway house:
- Don't sleep on Jared Jeffries, yes I said it, DO NOT SLEEP ON JARED JEFFRIES. Against the rumbling, stumbling, bumbling Gandolfs, Jeffries could draw 15 charges tonight. He has been absolutely fantastic defensively the past two games, drawing 8 charges. The much maligned Knick should be winning fans over with his effort and heart. I love his impact defensively on this team and I think he's a key part of this team. Jeffries has even scored 22 points the past two games. I love what JJ is doing and I expect for him to keep it up.
- For more preview on tonights game, check out Chris Delgado and I talking Knicks tonight on spreecast at 5:30 eastern time. Here is the link.


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Windows - Security
BitDefender Total Security 2008
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text:
How long would it take you to do these binaural mixes?
I like Binaural recordings but why not do the same of the original mix also ? it works in speakers too the effect..even though not in the same way.
What software do you use ?
I've found using a binaural recording of something like rain or a storm for example, gives a great spatial element to a track. Binaural recordings I'd say are perhaps more suited to field recordings.


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H20 Church
Apr 30, 2017 - 10:30 AM
H20 Church meets Sunday at 11:00 am at The Abbey.
Come EARLY to the H2O Cafe at 10:30 am for some breakfast treats, and some delicious Alaskan coffee in the homestyle mug of your choosing!
You can expect to find:
– A friendly, comfortable atmosphere
– Biblical teachings that are challenging, vulnerable, respectful and honest
– A safe environment to be authentic and real and not pretend you have it together…a place where you can get help and healing.
– Worship music in a variety of styles
– Coffee that tastes like its from Alaska…cuz it is
– A kids ministry that rocks
– Low lighting so we all look better
– Smaller life groups that meet throughout the city during the week
– Imperfect people who are struggling
For more information, click here.


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Premier League: Kevin De Bruyne will fight for first-team place at Chelsea next term
Belgium forward Kevin De Bruyne is determined to force his way into the Chelsea first team this season.
Last Updated: 21/06/13 1:49pm
The Belgium forward signed for the Blues in January 2012 in a £6.7m move from Genk before being loaned out to Werder Bremen last season.
The 21-year-old impressed during his spell in the Bundesliga and was being linked with a possible move to UEFA Champions League runners-up Borussia Dortmund.
But his agent, Patrick De Koster, has revealed that Mourinho called his client after Belgium's 2-1 win over Serbia earlier this month in which De Bruyne scored the opener, and assured him he had a future at Stamford Bridge.
De Koster said: "Mr Mourinho gave a phone call to Kevin, explaining a little bit the situation for next season.
"We didn't receive any guarantees, but it's normal in a team like Chelsea. It's up to him to prove like he did in the last 18 months.
"A year and a half ago when he signed a contract at Chelsea, it was like a dream which became reality. Afterwards it was important for Kevin to put the right steps at the right moments.
"Kevin wants to play. Playing football, he became a better football player. I think he proved it staying six months more in Genk and last season in Bremen.
"He did very well. Now it's up to him to prove the same thing at Chelsea."


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WASHINGTON TWP. - The risk of dry fire hydrants in the Meadowbrook housing development has diminished in the wake of a proposal to have the township take over the payment of the fees and the collection of the payments.
Township Manager Jason Ganster told a crowd of about 30 people Thursday night that he would propose to the elected township supervisors that the township step into the long-simmering dispute and at least ensure that fire protection continues to be provided.
'We're talking about $1,600 per year and six fire hydrants,' Ganster said.
'At the supervisors meeting on Feb. 28, I will bring this before the supervisors and ask them if we can take this on,' Ganster said as the meeting wound down.
Superior Water Co., the utility that provides water to the hydrants and had threatened to shut them off because the bill had not been paid since July, would accept that as a way to move forward, said CEO Louise Knight, who helped organize the meeting to explain the problems to residents.
Most in the room agreed that the source of the problem rests with developer Richard Mingey, who did not attend, has not returned phone messages seeking comment, and is the principal in the company that built the single homes in the development.
'It's a shame Mr. Mingey isn't here,' said Knight, who company is already in long-delayed litigation with Mingey's. 'It's hard to talk to someone who isn't here.'
Knight is not the only person in the meeting who complained about the difficulties of communicating with Mingey. Several speakers said he did not return their calls or emails.
The problem lies with the fact that the hydrants are not public, and are not owned by the municipality.
As private hydrants, Knight explained, it is the owner, not the municipality responsible for paying the 'availability fee' for the hydrants.
Mingey had previously instructed Knight in an email, she said, to send the bills to him because, as the developer, he is currently the head of the homeowners association there.
After paying one bill the checks, and the return phone calls and return e-mails, stopped, she said.
On Jan. 30, residents of Meadowbrook received a letter from Knight, explaining the problem with the hydrants and indicating the company may have to shut off service to the fire hydrants.
With the township potentially taking over responsibility for making the payments, the threat of dry hydrants has abated, much the relief of the local fire company, and Knight said that leaves the back payments.
'But that's my problem,' she said. 'That's between us and Mr. Mingey.'
Pivotal in reaching this tentative accord was the perspective of Jeff Bevan, the president of Kimberton-based Hershey's Hill Management Co.
Bevan's company manages the homeowners association for the townhouse portion of the development, which is completed.
He collects the dues from the homeowners and pays the bills for which the association is responsible.
Residents in the single home portion of the development are part of the homeowners association still controlled by Mingey. They said they pay $800 a year in dues, but have no idea where the money goes and have never received a statement.
'If I were you, I would try to get some kind of accounting for that money,' Bevan advised.
Follow Evan Brandt on Twitter @PottstownNews


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Have you ever just felt like nothing is in order, like you just need to make lists and then when you go back to look at the lists you made it doesn't make sense or calm you down?
I feel like my head is spinning. I am comfort eating. I think I gained 10 pounds this weekend.
I feel out of control!
Currently at this very moment I am freaking out because I have to come up with a fabulous St. Patrick's day craft for my Kinders to complete and hang in the hallway and I don't have a clue. Sounds silly but everything has to be spectacular.
I also have to come up with at least 1 week of math and language arts lessons that have data I can collect for my masters. BUT WHEN!!! Data collection freaks me out. Kindergarteners and data collection is a huge time drainer when you have half day kindergarten. My AM/PM Kinders are only with me for about 3 hours each. Every minute is precious learning time! There is so much to learn and I feel like I am really struggling to pull everything together without being super literal. And then there is that resume I should be working on. Oh... but I'm not. My mind is spinning in a million directions. Which was why I made some lists. Which didn't seem to help.
Where has my weekend gone! I literally have not left my bedroom, but to go to the bathroom and grab unhealthy food. My back hurts...its dark again. School tomorrow. Ugggh!
I could just cry.
Anyways.... I'm off to have a nice pity party. In attendance?
|some HD-PB ice cream
|Some OC Housewives(see Vicki is already crying!)
If anyone is local, feel free to join me. Trust me, I have PLENTY of HD ice cream. Lots of spoons.


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Right now in the crime-ridden, gang-infested section of Newport News, Va. someone who perpetuates that violence is getting a free haircut. Terry Riddick is giving the haircut, but his goal is to cut down on gun and street violence by building relationships to draw offenders to the Unity March where they will hand in their guns, get counseling, and rejoin their community.
For the past eight years, Mr. Riddick and his brothers, Wilson and Randy, all barbers, have held Unity Walks in cities where the amount of violence make it necessary. The walks are held in memory of Riddick's cousin, Eric E. Ralph. According to Riddick, his cousin chose a life of violence and crime and died at age 28 when he pulled a gun on someone at a 7-11 who he didn't realize was armed. "He was one of those people who didn't listen," Riddick told the Monitor. "He spent his time prior to that in and out of jail and gang violence."
"We set up a campsite with counselors, FBI, mentors, and we walk from a point about four miles away through the neighborhoods and to the site," Riddick said. "People come out and they join us. Gang members come out and hand in their guns. We collected 25 guns over the last couple walks. If they want a free haircut at the end, they have to get a stamp or wrist band from each and every table to show they got the help."
Lorenzo Sheppard, Newport News' assistant chief of police, said, "We have worked with Terry Riddick before. We all know about the free haircuts he gives and the mentoring he is able to do as well while those haircuts are happening. He does a lot of good in the community and we will be there for whatever they need with this event."
Why would hardened gang members come out and hand over their guns, don a "Stop the violence" T-shirt, and walk to a campsite full of help?
Riddick laughed when I asked him and said, "Oh yeah! They really do. But it's not that easy. We are building trust. They do because we are there for them in time of need. We give them the haircut they have no money for, give Christmas presents, or show up at a door with a turkey."
Since starting in 2005 the group that calls itself Best Kept Secret has performed more than 4,000 free haircuts and given away approximately 2,000 holiday gifts per year, all purchased via donations from a struggling community.
Terrell Wiggins, 25, a former felon who spent his entire childhood since age 10 incarcerated for violence, is now a motivational speaker who supports the walk and the method.
"I hit a teacher in the head with a desk when I was 10," Mr. Wiggins said. "It was what I knew as a means of getting notoriety. You see you can teach a child in school or rec center and they understand what's right and wrong but the place they go back to at home in the neighborhood hasn't changed. The parents aren't changed. To deal with youth [is] you have to change the people at home in the neighborhood who are influencing them. I been that. I know this to be true."
What shocked me was when I asked Riddick if he could put me in touch with someone who had been directly influenced as a result of this Unity Walk process to change their life, he said, "You already met one."
At first I thought he meant Wiggins, but he was referring to a local gospel radio show I had been invited to appear on two months ago to speak about the inner-city chess program I run here. He was also talking about the person who I would have never, ever imagined was a reformed product of the streets and a violence headline-maker I'd once read about.
Kimberly Adams, a mom with two little girls, was in her Sunday-go-to-meeting clothes, sensible shoes, and bordering on prim, pastor's daughter mojo when we met. I remember remarking on the purple chiffon skirt and how beautifully turned-out her kids looked. Meanwhile, my boys looked like ragamuffin fugitives from a Tide commercial.
"She ran the streets as a woman, hung with the wrong crowd before she found the Walk," Riddick said.
So I called Ms. Adams and asked her to tell me her story, and it turned out to be one of a child growing up with little parenting. What there was, wasn't positive.
"I was honest and loving and what I got back was not; so I got hard on the inside," Adams, 27, biological mom of one girl, 7, and step-mom to another, age 6. "I was what you'd call gang-affiliated, but not a gang member. I shut myself off. If you did me wrong or I thought you were against me, I didn't care about you or how much I hurt you."
"Being loving and having a moral compass wasn't getting me what I felt I deserved from my family and that was love and honesty," she explained. "I was in trouble with the law. I was a fighter. But at the same time I was a defender in school. I was the one the bullies were afraid of, but then I was more like Iron Man, self-involved and destroying, than Captain America doing the right things."
Adams had been arrested for a brutal knife attack and escaped incarceration due to lack of evidence, she said. "Instead of being afraid, I was excited, like 'Wow this is cool,' the arrest didn't affect me to change my ways."
It was seeing numerous Facebook posts about Riddick by others in her community that eventually led her to seek him out and learn about the Unity Walk.
"So I decided to go see what this Walk was about and, before I knew it, they threw a 'Stop the Violence' T-shirt on me, and I was walking with all these people who looked at me like I was a great person. They were not looking at me like I was going to do them harm."
In that moment, Adams said, "I just suddenly saw myself as a woman. That sounds strange, right? But I was with my daughter, and they had me hold this disabled woman's hand, and we walked together. I was a woman and a mother and not who everybody saw me as before that moment."
At that time her biological daughter was age 4 and is now seven with a mommy who works for Norfolk State University's Community Foundation and is helping Riddick obtain sponsors for this year's walk.
"That walk was the highlight of my life," Adams said. "Walking it gave me peace and a sense of pride I'd lost. I want that as a parent for my children."
Her advice to other moms and dads currently living a life of crime and violence is simple, "It's not about you anymore. Once you become a parent, it's about your offspring and making things better for them than what you had."
As a parent who has written many blogs trying to find some solution to the violence and loss of children's lives as a result of hate, guns, and bullying, I never would have thought to reach peace with a barber's chair and a T-shirt. However, that method is clearly building a community while deconstructing the destruction of our communities, so I say: It's time to give violence the chair.


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Scrabbe on Family Tree Circles
view: full | list
Journals and Posts
Looking for William West Mitchell -- possibly born Virginia, USA
My great-grandfather, William West MITCHELL, is officially recorded as dying on 26th February 1897 in Adelaide, South Australia. The registration gives his age at death as 44 years.
The problem is that we can find no other "hard" data about him. Living in Port Pirie, South Australia, he produced four children with Elizabeth who took his surname, but no marriage is found in official records. His children's birth registrations give his occupation variously as seaman and labourer. One unsubstantiated family memory is that he came from Ayrshire, Scotland. Another memory, equally unsubstantiated, is that he lived in Pittsburgh, USA, before arriving in Australia.
As many family history buffs would know, "Mitchell" is a very common surname. In the nineteenth century "William" was even more common as a forename. So the number of males by the name of "William Mitchell" is practically endless! Insert that middle name "West", however, and you find it belongs to almost nobody.
After some years though I did find a couple of men by that name, but only one was born close enough to my great-grandfather's year to be worth considering. The following details came from FamilySearch.org
Name: William West Mitchell
Gender: Male
Birth Date: 26 Jan 1856
Birthplace: Hanover Co., Virginia
Race: White
Father (or Slave Owner): Edward A. Mitchell
Mother's Name: Elizabeth
Indexing Project (Batch) Number: C00788-6
System Origin: Virginia-EASy
Source Film Number: 31945
Reference Number: p 52
I've found him in the US Census for 1870 and 1880. He married Alice M. Pumphrey in 1879 and had a son (William E. Mitchell) in 1880.
Was this William West Mitchell of Virginia the man who later became my great-grandfather while living in Port Pirie,South Australia? I need to discover what became of the Virginian WWM after the birth of his son. Did he leave the US, perhaps as a seaman, and then find his way to Australia? Or did he stay and die in USA?
I would be deeply grateful for any help.
Stephen Crabbe
Western Australia
- Displaying 1-1 of 1 Journals
- 1
- of1


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|Community Outreach & Engagement Coordinator
|UMass Boston
Oderra Jones became the new Community Outreach and Engagement Coordinator at the University of Massachusetts Boston in January.
Jones came to UMass Boston from the MetroWest YMCA in Framingham, Massachusetts, where he was the director of sports and teen programming.
At UMass Boston, Jones will be responsible for developing and sustaining a strong community outreach program for the Athletics Division. His major focus will be to plan and design programs and to cultivate community partnerships that will both help the local community and promote the mission and goals of UMass Boston. Among his other responsibilities will be the management of the Clark Athletic Center Community Membership program, and the scheduling of the facility for use by youth groups, neighborhood organizations, and other external entities.
During his time at the MetroWest YMCA, Jones assisted with the marketing of the sports and teen programs. He was also responsible for the development of teen social and leadership programs and instructed a variety of preschool and youth instructional sport classes. Prior to his work at the YMCA, Jones was the recruiting coordinator at Pfeiffer University in Misenheimer, North Carolina, as well as the assistant men's basketball coach.
Jones holds a master's degree in sports and recreation management from Sam Houston State University and a bachelor's of science in communications from Eastern Connecticut State University.


text:
Science Friday® is produced by the Science Friday Initiative, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization.
Science Friday® and SciFri® are registered service marks of Science Friday, Inc. Site design by Pentagram; engineering by Mediapolis.
|In a new book, surgeon Paul Ruggieri reveals the "good, the bad, and the complicated" about being a surgeon, and operating on patients. From cutting into a man who just killed his wife, to the headaches of running a small business, Ruggieri candidly discusses his career.


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John Boehner's endgame
As he tries to navigate the politics of a government shutdown that he never wanted, leading a Republican Conference with little interest in being led, House Speaker John Boehner in recent days has scored an unlikely victory of sorts.
Interviews with tea party-aligned House members and other hard-line conservatives reveal a modest if unmistakable rise in support for Boehner — a politician they have previously disdained and tried unsuccessfully to evict from power.
Story Continued Below
The hard line Boehner has drawn against President Barack Obama — in the face of polls and media coverage indicating the government shutdown is a political debacle for the GOP — has won the Ohio Republican credibility that he previously lacked with conservatives.
( QUIZ: How well do you know John Boehner?)
In an odd turnabout, the grumbling about Boehner's speakership now is rising from the establishment, old-school Republicans who traditionally have been his base of support. These legislators privately wonder whether Boehner is strong enough to both effectively steer the party and avoid a right-wing revolt.
The interviews reveal unanimity on one point: Boehner's speakership now hinges on whether he can somehow emerge from the showdowns over funding the government and raising the debt limit with some victory in hand and without a capitulation to Obama and Hill Democrats.
On Tuesday, Boehner and Obama held dueling news conferences to bash each other. Boehner and House Republicans — who have passed a dozen "targeted" spending bills to reopen parts of the government that immediately stalled in the Senate — offered a bicameral, bipartisan "working group" to discuss government spending and entitlement reform. Obama then said he'd be happy to talk as long as the Republicans reopened the government and passed a debt-ceiling increase. Boehner countered by calling such a move an "unconditional surrender" by House Republicans. And the stalemate over the government shutdown ground on into its ninth day, with a default on U.S. debt looming on Oct. 17.
( PHOTOS: 12 lawmakers who didn't back John Boehner)
Until this week, there was a widespread assumption — even among many Boehner allies in the House — that there was little chance he could win a third term as speaker, even if the GOP keeps its House majority in the 2014 elections. He barely won a second term last January in the face of tea party opposition.
Now, the chain-smoking, low-key Boehner seems to have bought himself some margin — a slim one that could easily disintegrate under the pressure of upcoming events.
"I think this has been his best two weeks ever as speaker of the House because he's doing the things that we have been trying to get him to do since … 2011 when we actually were sworn in," said Rep. John Fleming (R-La.), a strong conservative. Less than a year ago, Fleming was publicly rebuking Boehner for his handling of the "fiscal cliff" talks with Obama.
Boehner's performance "is much better than it was," added Rep. Tim Huelskamp (R-Kan.). "He's identified our key principles that goes back to what we agreed on in" a January Republican retreat.
( POLITICO's full coverage of the government shutdown)
"Right now, he could be elected," said a top House Republican, speaking on the condition of anonymity. "Two weeks ago, no. And talk to me when this is all over, I may have something new for you."
The question some have is why the speaker would even want the job under his current circumstances, in which Boehner must practice a brand of confrontation and scorched-earth politics that so obviously runs counter to his own deal-making instincts.
"Boehner could win, but I don't know why he would want to," said another Boehner ally.
The intense speculation about his future is a reflection of how much the current standoff, in the eyes of some Republicans, is now fundamentally about John Boehner.
The issue is not, as it was in 2011 and 2012, about any behind-the-scenes rivalry with House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-Va.), a dynamic that has largely receded in 2013. It is not even, any longer, solely about conservative animus toward Obamacare. It is a power conflict in which Boehner is trying to do what he loves most — play the role of deal-maker — while his moves and motives are being watched with as much wariness among Republicans as they are among the Democratic opposition.
( WATCH: President Barack Obama: 'I'm ready to head up to the Hill')
This dynamic is why the question consuming Washington and the country during the federal government shutdown — "How does this end?" — is inextricably linked to a more personal question, "How does this end for Boehner?"
Capitol Hill has become consumed in recent days with what can be summarized as three distinct scenarios for answering that question:
• The magic trick scenario
This is the one that the 63-year-old Boehner has been hoping for during the past 30 months. The belief is that by hanging in there long enough, buying time with his own party and letting the showdown with Obama play out long enough that he gains credibility with conservatives, the conditions will be ripe for what Boehner really wants. That is a long-term budget deal with the White House that would tackle long-term spending in entitlement programs and advance tax reform — both long-sought goals among many Republicans.
( POLITICO's full coverage of the debt ceiling)
The rising chatter among some House Republicans about the possibility of using the showdown over opening the government and raising the $16.7 trillion federal debt limit in exchange for a "down payment" on the national debt and deficit reflects that viewpoint. Under this thinking, Boehner will finally be acknowledged as a legislative master — ensuring a substantial legacy for the speaker and a worthy reward for the numerous setbacks and humiliations he has endured at the hands of his own party.
The problem with this scenario is the same one that thwarted such efforts previously over the past few years. It does not account for the degree to which hard-core conservatives in Republican ranks will balk at anything that Boehner is also for — despite his growing credibility on the right. The conflict is not simply ideological but also emotional.


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In the last few weeks, we have gathered for funerals for several of the members of St. John's. Several times a phrase was used to describe where our hope rested: "he/she is resting in peace." They departed into a peace that surpasses human understanding as their souls were now with the Lord in the heavens. But what about those still here, what about our peace?
It is a great delight to celebrate Holy Communion and then hear, or remember, the beautiful song of Simeon that celebrates an absolute peace that has been received. Simeon had been promised that he would not die until he had seen the promised Messiah. Upon Jesus naming and circumcision, Simeon sings the words of praise for the gift God has sent to fulfill all of His promises to the world and especially, to His Church who trusts His promises. The "Nunc Dimittis" gives all believers the great joy of remembering that God is faithful and He has sent His Son to save mankind from sin.
"29. Lord, as you have promised, you now dismiss your servant in peace. 30. For my eyes have seen your salvation, 31. which you have prepared in the sight of all people, 2. a light for revelation to the Gentiles and for glory to your people Israel." (Luke 2:29-32) These words do not deal with a wish, or an earthly hope, that God has forgiven our sins. It declares God's action and fulfillment of salvation in the One who is the Christ, the Son of the Living God. Our confidence is not based on a 'sense' of emotional peace, but on the declared peace that comes by God's pure grace that is gripped by faith the faith God has accomplished in us. Our peace rests in God's faithfulness to His promises, in spite of our unfaithfulness as sinners in a fallen world.
When the pastor, as the Lord's spokesman, dismisses the people "in peace," our attention and hope is not looking inward to our determination to be faithful, for our self-examination will always lead to the realization of our sinfulness. By God's undeserved love, out attention is focused outwardly to the Word and Promises of God that proclaim to us forgiveness and peace. It looks squarely into the Bread and the Wine received, along with the promises of God which empower this sacrament, and rejoices in the promise proclaimed forgiveness of sins. The hope that is within us is not self-generated; our hope is born of God and received in the words and promises of Jesus who says to us, "26. While they were eating, Jesus took bread, gave thanks and broke it, and gave it to his disciples, saying, "Take and eat; this is my body." 27. Then he took the cup, gave thanks and offered it to them, saying, "Drink from it, all of you. 28. This is my blood of the covenant, which is poured out for many for the forgiveness of sins." (Matthew 26:26-28)
When the pastor dismisses those who have received the true body and blood of Christ in Holy Communion, he sends them out in the peace of the Lord, a peace accomplished on the Cross of Calvary when Christ paid the punishment for all sin for all time. With great joy we actually "Go in peace", and in the Good News is that this isn't because we now have a peaceful feeling within us, but we have received the declaration from God that our sins are forgiven, which is life and salvation. Our peace rests in the almighty and infallible words and promises of our Lord, by the grace of God.
So we sing the song of peace received by God's grace through the Easter victory we constantly celebrate in our worship life. We look to the cross and understand that God paid the price for sin through Jesus Christ, and we have peace because He has accepted this great sacrifice of Christ's death for our sin. The only faithful Son of God paid what we cannot, and then delights to send us out singing with Simeon, "Lord, now let your servant depart in peace." We depart the sacrament and the divine service in peace to live under God's free grace and favor. We live in peace for all the days that we live in Christ, or better understood as "He lives in Us!" "20. I have been crucified with Christ and I no longer live, but Christ lives in me. The life I live in the body, I live by faith in the Son of God, who loved me and gave himself for me. 21. I do not set aside the grace of God, for if righteousness could be gained through the law, Christ died for nothing!" (Galatians 2:20-21) These words don't indicate a foolish God who sends His Son to die for sins that can be paid for by us in some special way! No! Christ paid for the forgiveness of sins that no one could work out for themselves. God's grace in the death and resurrection of Jesus Christ is the great gift of forgiveness of sins that leaves us singing: "Mine eyes have seen Your salvation which you have prepared in the sight of all people."
A former member called to say she had gone here for five years, post cancer visit, and was told she is free of cancer. How beautiful is the faith of all Believers (Christ's Church) to hear by the grace of God: your sins are forgiven, depart in peace!
"The Lord bless you and keep you, the Lord make His face shine upon you and be gracious unto you; the Lord look upon you with His favor and grant you peace.


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Tuesday, November 25, 2008
Equities are so undervalued it's hard to believe
What jumps out at you is the unprecedented degree to which stocks are undervalued today. The gap between these two lines has never been so huge. It's enough to make you question whether the model makes any sense at all, or whether there is something horribly wrong with the data. Or whether the stock market is just simply in the grips of a massive deleveraging panic that has driven valuations to absurd levels. Or maybe the 10-year Treasury yield is so artificially low due to panic conditions that it is inflating capitalized profits? To test whether the latter explanation is reasonable, it would take a 10-year Treasury yield of 10.4% to make the model say that stocks were fairly valued today. That's a big stretch.
I'll stick with the conclusion that stocks are incredibly undervalued today for a variety of reasons, but even the sum of those reasons fails to fully explain what is going on. The financial market is still in the grips of panic, deleveraging selling; liquidity in the bond market is dismal; the ability of anyone to reliably quantify the risk of subprime-backed, asset-backed, and commercial real estate-backed securities is highly questionable; our government is in a state of flux; the threat of higher taxes on capital is real; the threat of protectionist policies is real. But even if Obama makes a series of blunders, one big thing distinguishes the current period from the Depression, and that is monetary policy. The Fed today is simply not going to allow the monetary contraction that crippled the economy in the 1930s. And although I dislike Obama because of his socialist instincts, I seriously doubt he is going to blindly make every mistake in the books.
So I'm left with the conclusion that stocks are cheap.
15 comments:
- Tom said...
Two things, Scott. One is that your valuation model showed stocks being undervalued for most of this decade. Other models, such as John Hussman's, seem to be more useful -his showed the market overvalued until the recent plunge, but now undervalued.
Secondly, this idea that avoiding monetary contraction avoids the damage doesn't make sense to me. The Austrian School thinking shows that the damage happens during the credit expansion boom -- an abnormal number of people make investments that turn out to be in error and liquidation of those investments is both inevitable and necessary once they are made.
How will it help the economy to have the Fed and the Treasury preventing bad businesses from failing? All of these insane liquidity moves are aimed at preventing price corrections in the economy. How is it that a market-oriented economist can accept these developments as appropriate and helpful?
We've talked about the 1930s before. The depression didn't continue because of a monetary contraction. It continued because FDR tried to control prices, production, wages -- everything. It continued because of higher taxes, higher tariffs, and escalating threats to private property.
The extreme liquidity "operations" today amount to a theft of trillions of dollars for the purpose of fighting price changes in the economy and propping up failed institutions. These actions strike me as coming directly from FDR's play book.
Tom Burger
- November 26, 2008 at 5:02 AM
- CDLIC said...
Scott wrote:
"And although I dislike Obama because of his socialist instincts, I seriously doubt he is going to blindly make every mistake in the books."
But then again he is a socialistic; spread-the-wealth; tax-the-rich; free-markets don't work; Government is the savior of society; give the less fortunate their fail share; universal "voluntary" civilian service; regulate the producers; universal healthcare for all kind of guy. Other than that, I'm comfortable.
- November 26, 2008 at 5:20 AM
- Mark Gerber said...
It seems to me that right now it is all about whether the central banks can and will fill the black hole of debt (perhaps better described as dollar amount of lost leverage) created by dropping asset prices and the collapse of the shadow banking system. If they can and will fill that hole, I think stocks can recover substantially in the next few months. If we can't or won't, deflation will take hold, more deleveraging will occur, unemployment will go much higher, and earnings (stocks) will drop much further.
We all seem to have a reasonable handle on the current mortgage backed security losses, but as housing continues to drop, projections of future losses will keep going up. Even though the shadow banking system has collapased, and the losses have moved onto the real banking system, it is still not clear how big of a hole was created for the banks. I've heard estimates of $10T, but it seems nobody really knows. It sure would be nice to know the size of the existing hole so we can get certainty on whether they CAN do it.
I have generally believed the Fed/Treasury CAN fill the hole, especially with creative emergency Fed creativity, but I've been unsure whether they WILL. They have been behind the curve, and it has felt like they don't get it so they won't step up in time. Paulson's speech last week about abandoning the asset purchase part of the TARP felt as though they were trying to convince the market they had already done enough and nothing more would be needed until the new administration took over.
Now, it seems that Paulson's "we've done enough and the system is stable" statments were a bluff, and the subsequent selloff in banks, especially CITI, and the new stock/corporate bond market lows late last week was a call on Paulson's bluff. Now, with the aggressive action over the weekend with CITI, and aggressive $800B action over the past couple of days, especially the Fannie/Freddie mortgage purchase program by the Fed which should help stop the housing decline, it finally feels like they are ready to play catch up. It finally feels like they are finally willing to do what it takes and fast. Based on these qualitative observations, I think the odds have now shifted away from continued deflation and toward a more probably stock/corporate bond market bottom being behind us for now -- at least a few months as long as the Treasury/Fed continue to at least indicate they will keep filling the hole. Gold also seems to be confirming this shift in likely outcomes.
Now, if someone could just show me the figures on how big the hole really is so I could know with certainty when we have done enough to fill it. Looks liek the Fed has shoveled about $3T so far, has programs in place to shovel another $2T, and is willing to do more.
- November 26, 2008 at 9:38 AM
- t said...
Tom, Would like to take a look at the Hussman model, would appreciate if you could post web address. Not much of a top down mkt analyst, look more at individual companies but even old dogs can learn new tricks. Have been buying aggressively since Oct 10th, BRK,JNJ,KO, BNI, CB,GE,UPS.
Have been watching CVX and COP, thinking crude may drift into the low 40s this winter.
- November 26, 2008 at 10:00 AM
- Scott Grannis said...
Mark: excellent comments. I don't know how big the hole is but I have a high degree of confidence in the Fed's ability to fill it. I've always believed that you can never underestimate the Fed's ability to get what it wants.
- November 26, 2008 at 10:03 AM
- Scott Grannis said...
CDLIC: ;-). But he's also a politician, and you can never trust politicians to do what they say.
- November 26, 2008 at 10:05 AM
- Scott Grannis said...
Tom: isn't Hussman now bullish? I have to believe that all model valuations are showing stocks to be some degree of cheap. I admit my model has been wrong for years, and questioning its validity is entirely reasonable.
The Depression was caused by monetary contraction AND FDR's stupidity: a lethal combination that we don't have today.
- November 26, 2008 at 10:08 AM
- SpeakToMe said...
Stocks are cheap at the moment, no doubt about it. Looking forward, I'd expect those lines to come together more from the earnings dropping and rates rising (intrinsic value lower) rather than stocks going up.
In the past, where there have been large discrepancies, I note that the market has proven to be more right than the model -- the intrinsic value moved to the stock price rather than the other way around.
- November 26, 2008 at 1:00 PM
- Scott Grannis said...
Speak: Those are valid points. But to close the gap on the earnings side alone would require a decline in profits of two thirds. On the rate side, it would require Treasury yields of 10%. Or some combination of the two, leaving you with a scenario very difficult to describe.
I can believe that profits will decline some more and that rates will rise. But that still leaves me with cheap stocks unless prices rise meaningfully.
- November 26, 2008 at 1:10 PM
- Tom said...
"t" is looking for John Hussman.
Here is the link address: http://www.hussmanfunds.com
A google search on John Hussman brings his site right to the top.
Hussman is a data-driven analyst. His valuation model is based on Price to Peak Earnings ratios with what he calls normalized profit margins. He looks at long-term data history and calculates the average expected 10 year rate of return for existing parameters. Hussman is also a stock picker, and his team hopes to pick stocks that do better than the market.
Read many of his weekly commentaries; he does an excellent job of defending his methodology. Incidentally, the projected ten year return as of now was right on the money -- just about zero percent. He has also posted several commentaries over the years showing what he believes is the problem with the so-called Fed Model of stock valuations -- well worth taking a look at.
Before this market crash, his model had him hedging his fund 100%. Now Hussman says that for the first time in this decade stocks are priced to deliver good 10 year returns. He says he is most emphatically "not bullish" and is "not calling a bottom" -- his argument is more subtle than that. He says it is time to start slowly and carefully building a portfolio on days of market weakness. I like what he has to say.
By Hussman's model, valuations are attractive but well within historical experience. My only concern is that the impending recession could, in my opinion, become an outlier relative to Hussman's data -- and thereby fail to deliver expected returns. But, it is clearly a probability game and I too am buying selectively.
Tom Burger
- November 26, 2008 at 1:47 PM
- LetUsHavePeace said...
From Peter Fisher at the New York Fed: "Stress testing alone, however, -- if it is only a theoretical, number-crunching exercise divorced from the messy reality of trading and settlements -- may create its own problems. I am sure most portfolio managers know the potential impact of one- or two-standard-deviation moves in their asset values and of simultaneous one- or two-standard-deviation moves in previously-uncorrelated assets. Some portfolio managers may have contemplated the potential impact of three- and four-standard-deviation moves on their assets. But even if one had run stress tests of the impact of three-, four-, or five-standard-deviation moves, what assumptions were made about the bid-ask spreads that would exist in markets after they have experienced such outsized shocks? We know that the bid-ask spreads will not be "normal" and in the last few weeks we have some experience that the thinning out of markets will lead to further movements in the asset prices themselves.
This is really just a fancy way of saying that we are learning again the lesson that markets are subject to liquidity illusions; that each trader may be able to exit a position when he or she wants, but that all traders cannot exit their positions at the same time.
As a practical matter, no one can be expected to manage a portfolio on the assumption that a Russia will default once a month. As Chairman Greenspan recently noted, returning to the 30-percent-plus capital ratios of the 19th century might make financial institutions stronger, but it would also have consequences on rates of growth and standards of living that we might find less agreeable.
But we all probably need to study the distribution of outcomes a little more carefully to understand the structure of the tails--whether fat or thin. A common assumption is that thin tails should not worry us; but perhaps, for example, a thin tail may tell us that a six-standard deviation move is as likely as a three-standard deviation move. This is something that should give us pause.
My main point, however, is that the discipline of stress testing needs to encompass both the outlandish and the practical: outlandish in pushing the bounds of the unexpected and practical in relating "what if" scenarios back into the real world of trading and bid-ask spreads."
- November 26, 2008 at 7:58 PM
- Tom said...
When it comes to markets and the economy, it seems to me that we are making unwarranted assumptions about underlying probabability distributions. You can't even talk about "standard deviations" without assuming a particular mathematical form -- and that is quite likely wrong.
The Austrian School economists have argued all along that mathematical models in that field are a fools game. They say that not because they don't like or understand mathematics, but because they understand the nature of Human Action. In his book, Human Action, Mises has a discourse on the different meanings of "probability" -- it's well worth reading if you haven't seen it.
Tom Burger
- November 27, 2008 at 4:37 AM
- Scott Grannis said...
Peace: your comments are very insightful. You can't manage a portfolio if you assume that markets like we have today will happen every so often--the risks would leave you frozen in cash, and even cash can be risky as some holders of MMFs found out. How to avoid another disaster like this? I don't know, but I suspect that risk spreads will be higher than normal for quite some time.
- November 27, 2008 at 9:18 AM
- LetUsHavePeace said...
Tom: I think Mr. Fisher was making a comment about standard deviations from the historical record of volatility, not about the shape of future uncertainties. I think we Austrians overreach when we absolutely reject the efforts of professional managers like Scott to develop norms and rules for the design of prudent portfolios. The existence of rogue waves that can swamp any vessel does not "prove" that naval architecture is an exercise in pure folly. I think Mises is right to argue that, because of human action, we can never know what is the shape of the roller coaster of risk we are riding on, but that does not mean that we can't take measures that reduce the chances of our fatally crashing. Measured against the educated guesses about future earnings by owners and managers with real stakes in their businesses, current equity prices are at an extreme low in the range of historical forward P/Es. That provides no certainty that prices will not go lower, but it does suggest that the risk curve (whatever its exact shape) is offering far greater potential rewards to owners of property than to owners of government IOUs.
Your comparison with the Depression is an appropriate one, but I think China is the country that is now in the position the U.S. was then. In 1932 the U.S. had the current account surplus. That is why Keynes was right when he urged the U.S. to increase domestic consumption through the use of deficit spending; the rest of the world could not pick up the slack. That is the dilemma the Chinese face right now. The U.S. by contrast needs to adjust to a slightly lower rate of consumption and an increased level of domestic savings. To the extent that the TARP operations represent assets swaps rather than outright Keynesian spending, they are a bumbling step in the right direction.
- November 27, 2008 at 4:19 PM
- Tom said...
I agree there is nothing wrong in using mathematical models to better understand history and therefore gain a little insight into likely future conditions. It's when you take it too seriously that problems emerge: LTCM and our recently failed "quant" funds, for example.
These guys had models that said a certain event would happen only once in (what?) a thousand years, so they put on 50-1 leverage. That is using the mathematics inappropriately, I would say.
Tom Burger
- November 28, 2008 at 6:37 AM


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Phoenix, AZ (Wednesday, October 9, 2013) -- Attorney General Horne announces the execution of 71-year-old, Edward Harold Schad Jr, ADC #040496. The execution commenced today at 10:03 a.m. at the Arizona State Prison Complex (ASPC) in Florence. The time of death was pronounced at 10:12 a.m.
On August 1, 1978, Lorimer Graves, a 74-year-old Bisbee Resident, left Bisbee in a new Cadillac. Graves was on his way to Everett, Washington to visit his sister. However, he never made it there. On August 9, 1978, Graves' badly decomposed body was found hidden in the brush just off of U.S. Highway 89 south of Prescott. Crime scene officials discovered Graves was strangled to death due to the rope still knotted around Graves' neck. After strangling Graves, Schad stole Graves' Cadillac. About a month later he was stopped in New York for speeding. Police then found many of Mr. Graves' belongings in the car and arrested him.
Schad had a prior conviction punishable by life imprisonment, and another involving violence. On September 9th, 1979, Schad was sentenced to death. After a second trial, Schad was resentenced to death on August 29, 1985.