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Journal of the South African Institution of Civil Engineering
versión On-line ISSN 2309-8775
versión impresa ISSN 1021-2019
J. S. Afr. Inst. Civ. Eng. vol.53 no.2 Midrand oct. 2011
Climate change and urban road transport a South African case study of vulnerability due to sea level rise
E Friedrich; S Timol
The focus of this investigation was the impact of predicted sea level rise on the road transportation network of the eThekwini Municipality, South Africa. The main objective was to identify the areas within the municipality which are most vulnerable to sea level rise and to develop adaptive responses and interventions in order to maintain road functionality. For the identification of the most vulnerable areas a multi-criteria analysis supported by geographical information system modelling was used. Three areas were identified, namely, the Isipingo, Bayhead and the Umgeni mouth areas. Adaptive road responses have been researched by employing a network analysis of each of the areas identified. Parameters modelled were traffic volume changes, travel time and volume to capacity ratio - for the main roads in the areas identified. The adaptive responses required for each area were found to be different, varying from the addition of a lane to changes in signal settings. Overall this study presents a model of how vulnerability and the development of adaptive strategies to sea level rise could be addressed by municipalities.
Key words: road vulnerability, network analysis, transportation planning, climate change
Background information
Urban transportation systems are important contributors to greenhouse gas emissions and climate change, but they are also some of the systems most exposed to changes in weather and climatic conditions. Infrastructure like bridges, roads and railway lines, can be affected by sea level rise, flooding and increased storm events, and adaptation plans should be developed to cater for these events. However, most of the research and regulatory efforts on the issue of transportation and climate change are directed towards quantifying, reducing and limiting carbon emissions. These efforts became particularly relevant in the context of the Kyoto protocol where developing countries committed themselves to reducing overall carbon emissions. This resulted in many countries producing guidelines, inventories and even laws and bills in order to measure and target carbon emissions from all sectors, including transportation. However, "to date the consequences of climate change and changing weather conditions for the transport sector have not received much attention in the literature" (Koetse & Rietveld 2009). Internationally, there is a recognised need to integrate climate change in the transportation planning process (Suarez et al 2005; Schmidt 2008; Koetse & Rietveld 2009) in order to cater for, and plan adaptive responses at local and regional level.
This paper explores such adaptive responses for roads, with regard to sea level rise in the local context of the eThekwini Municipality, South Africa. It presents a model on planning adaptive responses in small-scale road networks in the event of major roads being flooded and becoming un-operational.
The eThekwini Municipality has a population of approximately 3,1 million and covers an area of about 2 300 km2 (eThekwini Municipality IDP 2005). The core city of the municipality is Durban, which is the largest South African port city on the Indian Ocean. Inland it is surrounded by other urban nodes, as well as other more sparsely populated peri-urban areas. These areas are linked through a network of roads. The expected changes in the climate of the eThekwini Municipality area have been researched (CSIR 2006) and the predicted consequences are summarised as follows:
Increases in the maximum and minimum temperatures by about 2-3ºC are predicted, with an increase in the number of hot days experiencing temperatures exceeding 30ºC.
Rainfall will increase slightly. However, the distribution of this rainfall will change, with longer periods of no rainfall and shorter periods of intense rainfall.
The sea level rise and increased extreme weather events will result in damage of infrastructure and coastal vegetation. Increased flooding is also predicted. Flooding will result in an increase in the high-level tide and coastal erosion.
Water availability in the local catchment is predicted to decrease by 157,8 million m3 for the period 2070-2100, thus resulting in less water being available for human and industrial consumption.
Loss of biodiversity due to temperature and precipitation changes.
International studies (Dasgupta et al 2007) agree with the local study (CSIR 2006) that an increase in the projected frequency of natural hazards (extreme weather events, flooding and sea level rise) is expected at regional level. Therefore, it is necessary to critically assess existing transportation infrastructure and operational systems, and their ability to withstand such changes. This research aims to identify some of the most vulnerable areas within the eThekwini Municipality with regard to sea level rise, and to assess the impacts of projected changes on the surrounding road transportation network.
Defining road vulnerability
One of the most important terms that had to be defined for this study was 'vulnerability'. This is a relatively new notion used in transport network studies, and in the literature the definition is still debated (Lam 1999; Bell & Cassir 2000; Bredica 2002; Iida & Bell 2003; Taylor & D'Este 2004; Jenelius 2008). The concept is linked to reliability, serviceability, incidents and risk. A definition proposed by Bredica (2002) is: "Vulnerability in the road transportation system is a susceptibility to incidents that can result in considerable reductions in road network serviceability. These incidents may be more or less predictable, caused voluntarily or involuntarily, by man or nature". The same author states that "road vulnerability analysis regards the network as a whole and involves identifying a spectrum of incidents, collecting data on probabilities and consequences to estimate risk, performing various studies and experiments to set values for desirable/acceptable serviceability, as well as investigating and assessing the effects of possible mitigation measures and improvement strategies". A review of the studies on this topic shows that vulnerability assessments in road transport networks have been performed at national, regional and international level. Very little work has been done on impacts and vulnerability at local, micro-level, with only a few studies from developed countries (e.g. Suarez et al 2005; Jacob et al 2007).
The application of road vulnerability used in this study was narrowed down from the definition presented above. Most of the studies reviewed did not take into consideration sea level rise, although extreme weather events (as predicted in climate change) and their consequences were enumerated as risks by some authors. Sea level rise does not fall into this category because it is not seen as a sudden event, as it is predictable to a certain degree through modelling and affects the network at local level, i.e. roads near to coastlines. Therefore, road vulnerability for this study was aimed at the local context and was defined as fulfilling certain specified criteria, as presented further on in this paper in the vulnerability assessment section of the methodology under the headings "The multicriteria decision analysis model and the use of ArcMap" and "Road vulnerability assessment".
In conducting this study, four distinct steps were delimited. These were: defining the boundaries of the study and collection of data, development of the multi-criteria and vulnerability assessment models and the application of the ArcMap and Emme/2 models, followed by an analysis of the limitations and uncertainties. Through the multicriteria assessment (supported by the use of ArcMap) three geographical areas were identified. Roads in these areas would have the potential to be affected by sea level rise. The road transport network within these three areas was subsequently investigated by using the Emme/2 transportation network model. Worst case scenarios, in which affected major roads were considered unusable, were modelled and the consequences of changed traffic patterns were measured using specific traffic criteria, i.e. volume, travel time and volume to capacity ratio.
Study boundaries and data collection
In the first step of the study the boundaries were defined, and the components of the transportation system and the choices around natural hazards were narrowed down. With regard to infrastructure, it was decided that the study would focus on roads only. With regard to vehicle type, all vehicles that made use of the road network were considered. Both public and private transportation were considered. Operations were the focus of the Emme/2 modelling and vulnerability assessment. A significant proportion of the analysis and discussion is based on operational performance of the road network. Performance measures mentioned by the National Department of Transport (2005a and 2005b) are mobility, accessibility, liveability and sustainability. Mobility measures were linked to three performance characteristics (volume, travel time and volume to capacity ratio) used by Emme/2. This is also supported by the literature on road vulnerability analyses, as these performance characteristics are used in reliability studies (Bredica 2002 & Jenelius et al 2006) and accepted as measurements for the performance of road networks.
From the climatic changes predicted for the eThekwini Municipality (as mentioned above) it is obvious that the two factors that have a major influence on the road network are flooding and sea level rise. This study focused on sea level rise and associated flooding. Such flooding was included in the analysis of one of the case studies (the Umgeni River mouth area), as in this specific case it proved to be very relevant. The projected rise in sea level for this study was based on calculations done by the CSIR (2006). An initial proposed 100-year sea level rise of +0,5 to +0,9 m formed the starting point. The CSIR (2006) study then considered the added effects of severe wind set-up, maximum hydrostatic set-up and wave set-up, as well as the likelihood of the mean high-water spring tide or high astronomical tide occurring simultaneously, and proposed two probable scenarios. This paper used a 100year sea level rise of 2,8 m (assuming a 0,9 m initial sea level rise and taking into account the added effects), as recommended both by a local specialist (Mather 2008) and the CSIR (2006) report. Although it is unlikely that all factors considered would occur simultaneously, it nevertheless represents a 'worst-case' scenario. During March 2007, exceptional waves reaching the 8 m contour line were recorded in Durban at a few locations for several days (Gordon-McKenzie 2008).
The multi-criteria decision analysis model and the use of ArcMap
A series of vulnerability selection criteria were identified through a process of multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA). The procedure generally followed was that presented by Belton and Stewart (2002), but in a more simplified form, as a comprehensive MCDA approach was beyond the scope of this study. A model for assessment was built by using the following criteria (presented in decreasing order of preference): within eThekwini, affecting major roads, within the 2 m contour and within the 4 m contour following the coast and river mouths.
Initially it was hoped that the 100 year sea level rise projection of 2,8 m could be used as the only contour criterion. However, contours were only available at 2 m intervals at the time of modelling. Thus the 2 m contour was considered as 'extremely vulnerable' and the 4 m contour was created as a 'safety net' since it represented the next contour interval.
The vulnerability selection criteria established through the MCDA were plotted onto a spatial map by using ArcMap. ArcMap is part of the ArcView software, which is a GIS software developed by ESRI (ESRI 2008). This software allows users to view and edit GIS data held in flat files, known as shape files which form different layers of features. In this case, each layer represented a criterion (or feature used in the value-added judgement process) from the MCDA. ArcMap modelling therefore served as a useful tool to summarise the MCDA process in one step. The outcome was a map showing the areas fulfilling the four criteria (within the municipality, affecting major roads, within the 2 m or 4 m contour), and therefore considered the most vulnerable. This lead to the identification of three geographical areas within the eThekwini Municipality, which became the case studies on which Emme/2 modelling was performed. These areas are: Isipingo, Bayhead and the vicinity of Umgeni River mouth.
In addition to the MCDA analysis and the use of ArcMap, visual inspection was undertaken, and with the help of maps, the location of basic or essential services in the three study areas was further investigated. The essential services considered were: hospitals, fixed clinics, South African Police Services, fire stations, educational institutions, railway lines, landfill sites and gas lines. These were listed in decreasing order of preference.
Vulnerability assessment
To assess the specific vulnerability within each of the three areas (Isipingo, Bayhead and Umgeni mouth) identified through the MCDA analysis, the process outlined in Table 1 was adopted.
In the first stage, decision-makers and stakeholders were engaged in a scoping exercise, in order to gauge an initial assessment of the vulnerability of each area. This was done in a limited way and only a few key players at municipal level (from the departments of transport, environment and coastal management), academics and scientists were consulted through a series of open-ended, partially structured discussions. A wider consultation process was beyond the scope of this study.
In the second stage, current traffic conditions were assessed. The Emme/2 model was used to calculate present traffic volumes, travel times and volume to capacity ratios (V/C), based on existing transportation input data. This was done for each of the three areas identified as vulnerable.
In the third stage, future conditions were estimated. This step involved establishing projected scenarios of future environmental, social and economic conditions that were likely to affect the transportation system. Projections were made by experts in four institutions (CSIR, eThekwini Municipality and the provincial and national Departments of Transport).
In the fourth stage, future road vulnerability was estimated and adaptive strategies were proposed (see "Results and Discussions" further on). Practically, this was done by using the Emme/2 model to calculate traffic changes for the three road networks in the areas predicted to be flooded (Isipingo, Bayhead and Umgeni River mouth) and by investigating different adaptive measures in order to maintain the current functionality of the surrounding transportation network.
Stage five, in which decisions should be taken and measures implemented in order to decrease road vulnerability by applying the adaptive strategies proposed, was beyond the scope of this study. Therefore, although some of the steps (i.e. steps 1 and 5) were performed partially or not at all, the vulnerability assessment framework from the literature was nevertheless followed.
Data analysis and simulation application of Emme/2
Emme/2 is a spatial analysis software package commercialised by INRO (INRO 2009) that models how people move in and over a transportation network under a given set of conditions. It is based on the Travel Demand Forecasting (TDF) process. In this study Emme/2 was used to analyse the traffic networks of areas identified as vulnerable.
These networks (i.e. the three case studies) were analysed first under current conditions, and then in a second scenario where portions of major roads situated below the 2 m contour line would be rendered unusable due to flooding from sea level rise.
Three mobility performance characteristics were measured in order to assess the impact of flooding on the surrounding transportation network. These were: traffic volume, travel time and volume to capacity ratio.
Volume "is the number of vehicles counted (at a given point on the roadway) in a specified time interval" (Banks 1998). The number of vehicles is measured in p.c.u. (passenger car units). This is a unit of measure whereby larger vehicles are converted to passenger cars using multiplication factors. This allows mixed traffic streams to be converted into one unit of measurement. In the two scenarios modelled (before and after sea level rise) current traffic volumes were used and no growth was factored in.
Time referred to travel time, which is "the time required (for a vehicle) to cover a fixed distance" (Banks 1998), in this case from one point to another over a specified route under prevailing conditions. Travel time may also be related to accessibility which measures "the ease with which a desired destination can be reached from a given location" (Banks 1998).
Volume to capacity (V/C) ratio is the ratio between the actual, measured volume and the maximum designed volume. A V/C ratio of 1 would indicate severe congestion, i.e. a low level of service, and a V/C close to zero would indicate an under-utilisation of the road link. V/C can be related to mobility, with a high V/C indicating low mobility and a low V/C indicating high mobility.
Assumptions, limitations and uncertainties
The main assumption in the study was that future road-based travel demand would be similar to the existing scenario. This was done to isolate the impact of sea level rise on traffic patterns and to discount the effects of traffic growth. Considering that only portions of the identified roads would be affected by flooding and the remainder would be operational, the second assumption was that the surrounding development would still exist and traffic would need to re-route to reach the desired destinations.
The limitations and uncertainties in this study were linked to the assumption that the projections used were correct. These included the projections used to calculate predicted sea levels and traffic projections used in the Emme/2 modelling. To overcome the uncertainty of sea level rise projections, both the 2 m contour and the 4 m contours were considered. The Emme/2 model can factor in proposed or recent property developments, but specific data (which might not be available in the initial stages) on these developments are needed in order to calculate the impacts in the future, with regard to road traffic. Therefore, uncertainties due to these unknown future developments could not be quantified.
Another limitation of the study was the use of methodologies (MCDA and vulnerability assessment) in which a larger public participation process was envisaged. However, since this was an academic study and not a municipal planning exercise, it did not warrant such large public engagement. This could, however, be done in a future follow-up study. In addition, the authors do not have any control over the implementation of the recommendations emerging from this study and the way they will be incorporated into further planning. In spite of these shortcomings, the MCDA and the vulnerability assessment provided a good framework for including various unrelated factors in a formal scientific analysis.
Following the methodology presented in the previous section, the three most vulnerable areas in the eThekwini Municipality road network, with regard to sea level rise, were identified as: Isipingo, Bayhead and the vicinity of Umgeni River mouth areas. They are presented in Figure 1.
The three areas identified have different characteristics, as presented in Table 2 and these characteristics were considered in the MCDA analysis.
Road network vulnerability assessment for the Isipingo area
For the Isipingo area (see Figure 2) two road links were broken in the Emme/2 model, namely Prospecton Road and Joyner Road. It should be noted that only sections of these two roads are expected to be flooded. Therefore, these roads would still have operational sections carrying traffic. In this network analysis twelve roads were investigated in detail, as well as the N2 Highway, which in this area has two access interchanges (resulting in eight on- and offramps included).
The N2 Highway and the major roads were modelled in sections as they extended over multiple Emme/2 zones. For example, the length of the N2 Highway included in this area was subdivided into four sections (in both directions resulting in eight segments) and Prospecton Road was subdivided into three sections (including the flooded section and two operational ones). As shown in Table 2 there are a significant number of essential services in the vicinity of the area, which biased this case study towards a social vulnerability analysis. The performance indicators modelled in Emme/2 under current conditions, and in a future scenario in which parts of the two roads are flooded, were traffic volume, travel time and volume capacity (V/C) ratio. These three performance indicators were calculated for the before and after flooding scenarios. Table 3 summarises major changes and highlights problematic sections (e.g. where the current V/C ratio is high).
Data in Table 3 shows that volume changes are most significant on the N2 north between the Joyner Road and Prospecton Road offramps, the N2 North Prospecton Road offramp, the portion of Prospecton Road that leads off the N2 heading southwards (Section 2 and 3), and the sections of Joyner Road and Prospecton Road that were flooded. The greatest volume change occurs on Prospecton Road (Section 3), with an increase of 1 264 p.c.u. This is a substantial figure, suggesting that widening of the road is necessary to accommodate high turning volumes in separate lanes.
With regard to travel time, the two functional portions of Prospecton Road on either side of the inundated areas, and The Avenue, which would have previously linked Prospecton Road with Joyner Road, are the roads with the most significant increases in travel time. The increase in travel times corresponding to these links are ten minutes, six minutes and nine minutes respectively. While this may not be considered significant in the average case, it is considered significant in the context of an ambulance transporting a patient to the Isipingo Hospital (shown on Figure 2) and which has to use these roads.
Current V/C values are already above 1 for Prospecton Road and parts of Old Main Road (recently renamed as Phila Ndwandwe Road) and Clark Road. These figures highlight the pre-existing problem of limited capacity prior to the impact of sea level rising. In a future scenario, the impact of a break in Prospecton and Joyner Road is realised on the remainder of Prospecton Road, The Avenue and the N2, which all exhibit V/C greater than 1. A combination of transport systems management (in the form of revised signal phasing and timing, and the promotion of public transport usage) and infrastructural improvements (via maintenance and repair, and widening of intersections to allow for channelisation of turning movement lanes) needs to be investigated to avoid volumes reaching the capacity of the roads. Of particular concern is the N2. The V/C ratio exceeds 1 after the impact of sea level rise. This, coupled with a volume increase of 962 p.c.u., suggests that the addition of a lane on the N2, at least between the Joyner and Prospecton Bridges, may be necessary to ensure that the highway is not extensively affected.
Note that decreases in volumes, times and V/C ratios in the network were not considered, as these amount to positive impacts on the system. For this case study, a combination of effective transportation systems management and long-term infrastructural upgrades are required to adequately cater for the projected scenario in which Prospecton Road and Joyner Road become partially unusable. These measures would ensure that the functionality of the network is maintained and disruptions are minimal.
Road network vulnerability assessment for the Bayhead area
Figure 3 presents an aerial photograph of the Bayhead area, and similar transportation network modelling was done as for Isipingo. For this case study 18 roads were investigated in detail in the Emme/2 transport network. This included one road (called Test Road) which is under planning, as well as the M7 (Edwin Swales Drive - renamed recently as Solomon Mahlangu Drive). Some large roads, as well as the M7, were modelled in sections (i.e. Bayhead Road has four sections, Bluff Road has eight sections and the M7 included has three sections). The Bayhead Road link was broken in the Emme/2 analysis as it falls within the 2 m contour.
Table 4 summarises the major changes for the three performance indicators considered.
Data in Table 4 shows that the most significant changes in volume occur on six out of the eight sections of Bluff Road. There is a 599 average p.c.u. increase on the southbound section of this road, representing a 118% increase. While this is a very substantial increase, V/C ratios generally remain below 1, even in the future scenario. These indicators suggest that there is no great need for infrastructural changes. This conclusion was strengthened by investigating travel times. The highest travel time changes also occurred on Bluff Road, but the actual time differences were small (i.e. 0,46 and 0,76 minutes) and considered not significant enough to cause concern.
Current V/C ratios (see Table 4) for the entire area are generally under 1, and are therefore acceptable. In the future scenario, only one segment of the Bluff Road exceeds a V/C ratio of 1 (at the approach to the intersection with the M7). Some improvements are possible using revised signal phasing and timings.
The above analysis suggests that socioeconomic impacts are not significant in this case. The focus should rather be on the construction of Test Road (as it has been identified as a realistic option) to obtain acceptable levels of service in the future, even with a rise in sea level.
Road network vulnerability assessment for the Umgeni River mouth area
In this area a number of bridges crossing the Umgeni River were intersecting the 2 m and the 4 m contour lines. This does not mean that the bridges themselves intersect the 2 m or the 4 m contours, but if extensive areas around the bridges become flooded, the bridges will also be affected. It was decided that the M4 (Ruth First Highway), shown in Figure 4, would be the focus of this case study and a 'worst case' scenario would be considered. It was also decided that the approach in this study would be different, and the investigation would consider the possibility that sea level rise, combined with a flood scenario would increase the risk of scouring around the bridge piers, as well as damage to the piers themselves. This could result in severe damage to the bridge, with collapse occurring in the worst case. The M4 bridge was the closest to the beach, had the most land inundation in the surrounding area, and had the highest current traffic volumes.
It was assumed that the M4 bridge becomes unusable and this link was therefore broken in the Emme/2 transportation network analysis for the area. The results from the modelling showed that the impacts of a break in the M4 bridge link were felt over a much wider region, reaching the N2 Highway, and further. The detailed network analysed in Emme/2 included 53 roads and three highways (N2, N3 and M4). Because of the large scale, the analysis was conducted differently to the previous two cases, and changes in the overall network, as opposed to changes for individual links and sections, were emphasised.
The most significant volume changes occurred on the M4 and N2 and are shown in Figure 5. Roads with projected increases in traffic volume have been highlighted in red and those with projected decreases in green. On the remaining functional sections of the M4, volumes decreased dramatically as a result of the assumed bridge failure. As shown in Figure 5, the link traffic north and south of the M4 bridge decreased in volumes ranging between 1 272 and 2 051 p.c.u for the northbound carriageway, and between 3 380 and 4 099 p.c.u. for the southbound carriageway. More important is the corresponding increase in traffic volume on the N2. Volumes increased by between 225 p.c.u and 1 694 p.c.u., and V/C ratios increased from values of between 0,47 and 0,76 (acceptable) to values of between 0,51 and 1,02. This means that a major upgrade would be needed along portions of the N2, where at least another lane (assuming capacity of 1 800 p.c.u. per lane) would need to be constructed to maintain the same level of service after the re-routing due to the M4 bridge becoming un-operational.
Travel time analyses between the different Emme/2 zones included in the modelling of this network indicated that the largest increase in travel time occurs for a trip from Umhlanga to the Durban CBD. This increase is also the worst one, relative to original times. A trip from Umhlanga to the Durban CBD would take 1 757 seconds or 30 minutes longer. The second worst case is from KwaMashu / Inanda / Ntuzuma to the Durban CBD, with an increase of 1 232 seconds or 21 minutes. Seeing that a substantial proportion of the population from KwaMashu / Inanda / Ntuzuma use public transport, this could have significant implications for taxis and buses, in terms of travelling time.
Current V/C ratios, as presented in Figure 6A, show that two road links on North Coast Road (renamed Chris Hani Road) have a V/C greater than 1. This is not considered serious, as it is likely that those circumstances would be short-lived, and as the gridlock situation could be absorbed by the surrounding network. In the event of the Umgeni M4 bridge becoming unusable, however, the results show that most of North Coast Road experiences V/C ratios close to or exceeding 1. The assumed bridge closure also results in significant proportions of Northway Road (renamed Kenneth Kaunda Road), Riverside Road and the N2 experiencing V/C ratios greater than 1 (see Figure 6B).
On the whole, the results suggest that closure of the M4 bridge over the Umgeni River is unacceptable from a transportation network view. The functioning of the network analysed would be severely compromised, with many roads being gridlocked, and resilience in this case is minimal. Therefore, the results of this case study indicate that all efforts should be focused on preserving the functionality of the M4 bridge.
The purpose of this investigation was to identify areas within the eThekwini Municipality that are most vulnerable to the impacts of sea level rise and to assess the impacts of projected changes on the surrounding transportation network. This study also intended to present a model of vulnerability analysis and the development of adaptive strategies for municipalities. These are needed for transportation network planning. Identification of the most vulnerable areas was done by applying a simplified MCDA model with the help of GIS software. The three most vulnerable areas in the municipal road network were: Isipingo, followed by Bayhead and then the Umgeni River mouth.
Impacts of sea level rise on roads were measured by initially considering breaks in road links identified as most vulnerable. In this way, the vulnerability of transportation infrastructure to projected sea level rise (via inundation of road links) was assessed. Performance indicators were used during the vulnerability assessment phase to measure the efficiency of the road network before and after inundation. The 'before' and 'after' scenarios formed the basis of vulnerability comparison.
Since major roads with current high volumes and volume to capacity ratios were considered, results indicated that the impact of breaks in these road links was significant. Traffic volumes and delays increased on the remainder of the network, with network capacity severely compromised. This was especially valid for the Isipingo and Umgeni River mouth areas. The Bayhead case was less severe, due to the inclusion of an additional road which is currently under planning. Adverse values of performance indicators suggest severe implications, particularly with regard to the provision of basic services such as emergency ambulance services, police and fire response, etc.
In the case studies investigated, adaptation required upgrade of roads, such as the addition of a lane to maintain acceptable levels of service. Changes in signal timing and phasing may be required at intersections with high V/C ratios. To ensure that public infrastructure can safely provide essential services, continual adaptation is deemed necessary and the proposed adaptive measures should be seen in the wider context.
The results show that full-scale research is viable and necessary. There is a strong need to conduct a comprehensive investigation on this subject in the eThekwini context. Improvement may be realised by:
Involving key stakeholders in the initial stages of vulnerability assessment
Ensuring that Emme/2 input data adequately caters for recent development and changing traffic patterns, by conducting surveys and updating data regularly
Developing a wider vulnerability methodology for transportation in the eThekwini context, which includes other factors like river flooding, increase in temperature, increase in intense precipitation events and storm intensity
Conducting more case studies so that each may be compared to the other.
Studies such as this one are important for long-term transportation network planning and the preparedness to respond locally to climate change. However, adaptation will be achieved only if sound and coordinated longterm planning takes place, and appropriate programmes are developed. For this to occur, multi-disciplinary collaboration regarding transportation planning is essential. The National Department of Transport (2005a) acknowledges that there has been a lack of long-term planning for the road network. They note that "a comprehensive road needs study is considered necessary". It is suggested that such a study should include climate change impacts. This paper is a first step in that direction.
The help of all the personnel from the eThekwini Municipality is gratefully acknowledged, and in particular that of Mr Mather, Mr Aucamp and Ms GordonMcKenzie. We also thank Mr McFarlane for his help with Emme/2.
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Taylor, M A P & D'Este, G M 2004. Critical infrastructure and transport network vulnerability: Developing a method for diagnosis and assessment. In: Nicholson, A & Dantas, A (Eds), Proceedings, Second International Symposium on Transportation Network Reliability (INSTR), Christchurch, New Zealand, 20-24 August, pp 96-102. [ Links ]
Contact details:
School of Civil Engineering, Surveying and Construction Centre for Research in Environmental, Coastal and Hydrological Engineering University of KwaZulu-Natal
Durban 4001 South Africa
E: email@example.com
Current contact details:
Goba (Pty) Ltd Consulting Engineers and Project Managers
PO Box 25401
Gateway 4321 South Africa
E: firstname.lastname@example.com
ELENA FRIEDRICH is a lecturer in the School of Civil Engineering, Surveying and Construction at the University of KwaZulu-Natal. She teaches environmental management at undergraduate and postgraduate level. She graduated from the University of Natal with a BSc (Honours) in environmental management (1999) and an MScEng (2001) In chemical/environmental engineering. Currently she is finalising her PhD in the area of waste management and greenhouse gases. Her other research interests are vulnerability of infrastructure to environmental factors and the application of life cycle assessments in the water and waste sectors.
SHAM IMA TIMOL graduated surnrna cum laude with a BSc Eng (Civil) at the University of KwaZulu-Natal in 2008. She joined Goba (Pty) Ltd in Durban during the same year and spent 18 months in their Traffic and Transportation department. She then moved on-site as an assistant resident engineer, and later resident engineer, for a civil and roads construction project. The remainder of her experience has been in the Roads and Urban Infrastructure department, as a design engineer. Her current research interest lies in the area of sustainable urban drainage systems. She is registered as a Candidate Engineer with ECSA and is a member of SAICE. (The work for this paper was undertaken while at the University of KwaZulu-Natal.)


text: The General Levin Winder Chapter of the Daughters of the American Revolution recently visited with veterans at The Arbor at Ocean Pines in observance of Veterans Day. Seated, from left, are Veterans EP Chmielewski, Bob Massey, William Harris, John Spurrier and Will Russell. Standing, from left, are DAR members Pat Arata, Sue Mallory, Jacqueline Spurrier, Carol Morrison, Linda Busick and Kathy Muncy.

subset: commoncrawl


text:
Farmers in the Mid-South and Southeast have shown they can produce high corn yields. (Arkansas and Georgia had some of the highest yields in the nation last year.)
Southern corn growers are at a disadvantage, however, when it comes to their northern brethren, and they will be as long as USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service continues to release its first survey-based projections of crop planting intentions at the end of March.
By the end of March (This year's Planting Intentions report was released March 28), many southern growers have already planted their corn crop or are just days away from putting planters in the field. Thus, when USDA announced near-record corn plantings of 97.3 million acres, the die was already cast for many southern producers.
Corn prices started falling almost before the ink had dried (or the electrons settled) on the March 28 forecast. Southern growers who had not priced their new crop corn with futures or forward contracts were looking at futures prices in the $5.60 range for September delivery after they went limit down.
If Southern farmers are serious about growing corn, and it appears they are, they may want to begin talking with USDA about adjusting the release date for the end-of-march planting intentions report.


text:
Dragon's Jewel 2
Updated Aug 24, 2006 by Artur Berk
Comment #1 Thursday, August 24, 2006 1:20 PM
Comment #3 Saturday, August 26, 2006 8:43 AM
Comment #4 Saturday, November 10, 2007 8:45 AM
this is much better than previous versions
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text:
While many event videographers still outsource their DVD authoring, the numbers that choose to create DVDs in-house has risen significantly in the last three years. Videographers, new and old, have begun to realize just how easy (and potentially profitable) it is to throw together a simple, menu-less DVD and/or how much fun it can be to take full advantage of the creative possibilities that DVD offers.
In the Beginning…Bahn didn't get into the event videography racket until the digital media deluge at the turn of the millennium. Even though he had a background in video editing and graphic design, Bahn had written off a career in video production until the advent of DV and affordable computers capable of editing video. bluecore media "officially started in the fall of 2000," Bahn says, "to capitalize on the advertising window for the upcoming wedding season, with full-time business thereafter." In the four years since, bluecore media has worked exclusively in wedding videography.
"I began DVD production in 2001 at the same time Apple introduced their groundbreaking line of Quicksilver G4s with Superdrives," Bahn continues. This machine has proven reliable enough that he still uses it as his main DVD production workstation, with DVD Studio Pro for authoring, Adobe Photoshop for initial menu design and layout, and Adobe After Effects for motion menus, text, and layer composites
Extras, Extrasbluecore's general service contract includes two DVDs with chapters-which Bahn recommends as a part of any DVD-but without menus or any special features. Each additional copy officially costs $75. "Mostly I give away extra DVDs at no cost, as it is advertising right there," Bahn says. "The $75 fee is just a contingency for the possible bridezillas."
Menus and other special features also are available at a premium. "Unless a client is willing to pay extra," says Bahn, "I make the DVD as simple as possible." (For particularly simple projects, DVD Studio Pro is often overkill; Bahn heartily recommends iDVD 4 to "those looking for fast and easy DVD creation.")
For clients wanting to tap bluecore's proven DVD authoring abilities, Bahn says, "Our deluxe DVDs start at $300 and up, depending on the complexity and amount of bonus material." This bonus material can include motion menus, subtitles, additional audio mixes, 5.1 surround, outtakes, vignettes, slideshows, highlights, and more. "The DVDs employ some very advanced features in the DVD spec, such as scripting and the use of variables to control how the client interacts with the DVD," Bahn says. "I'll create a script that remembers where the viewer is on a particular menu, so as they select submenus, they can always return to the correct main menu." He learned this skill simply by reading through a handful of tutorials he found on the Web and in print. Bahn credits this reasonably low learning curve as a key factor in his winning the two Creative Excellence awards. These awards "show that anyone with creativity and some skill can put together a low-cost DVD that rivals what Hollywood can produce," he says.
Taking advantage of the low cost of DVD media, Bahn's next DVD project involves creating a studio demo DVD of bluecore's recent weddings, which will be mailed to prospective clients. "This promotional DVD will undoubtedly employ many of the techniques currently in use for our client DVDs," says Bahn. "It will make extensive use of scripting and additional audio tracks in the form of a commentary from brides and the video producers, plus it will include loads of DVD-ROM content including QuickTime movies, PDF brochures, other literature, etc."
Entering the Third Dimensionbluecore's technological expertise isn't relegated to the realm of DVD authoring; Bahn has experience with 3D modeling as well. "The company name 'bluecore media' came from the name of a superhero I conceived and modeled in 3D while in high school," Bahn says, back in the days when computer animated 3D animation was revolutionizing the way Hollywood movies were being made. Unfortunately, he hasn't had much of an opportunity to take advantage of this skill in his video productions. "Generally, you'd want to stay away from 3D graphics in wedding videos because the effect can look extremely cheesy," he says.
Because of the time-consuming nature of designing 3D titles or effects, he hasn't found their inclusion particularly cost-effective either. "The only time I've used a 3D model was in adding a digital butterfly into a real garden setting," Bahn says. Even then, Bahn says he used it only because he thought the effect would work and look somewhat believable. "Had the butterfly not looked real enough, I would have scrapped the whole garden scene and re-edited that segment."
While Bahn doesn't plan on 3D becoming a large part of his work, Bahn says the butterfly may be gaining a stablemate in the future. "Dragonflies are really big right now," he says, "so I might look into adding a digital dragonfly into my productions."
Give me the Big PictureAnother thing that Bahn thinks separates him from his competition is the use of a 2/3-inch CCD broadcast digital camera "when most of my competitors are using 1/3," he says. "The side-by-side comparison in image quality is striking."
This cinematic perspective extends beyond aspect ratio, as Bahn tries to distinguish his work by giving his videos a movie-like feel. "I think it is uncommon to find the disciplines of filmmaking applied towards wedding videos," he explains. "By disciplines of filmmaking, I mean things like using the tripod whenever possible, even when it would be easier and quicker going handheld; fully manual operation of camera and audio gear; and constantly looking at capturing the action from a different perspective and from a viewpoint that re-inforces either an idea or an emotion that helps carry the movie along."
He applies this approach to his editing as well: taking 60 hours to edit down an entire day's events into a 30-minute non-linear video. "My videos do not always start at the bridal prep, but could, for instance, start at the first dance and work backwards as the story of the couple is slowly peeled back, detail by detail."


text:
0 42:50
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text:
Lottie Top
- Chiffon Bardot Top with Frill Sleeve
- Available in Black and PeachPuff ( see thru)
- 95% Polyester 5 % Elastane
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We reserve the right to cancel any order if shipping becomes too difficult. In this case we will issue a full refund.


text:
Caroline sent me this quilt for long arm quilting...her other quilt which was called "oceanica" is listed here:
On this quilt I outlined all of the main designs in the fabric as well...and just kept all other designs very whimsy and simple. The fabric and piecing speaks for itself. It is a beautiful quilt. Perfect for her DGD. I quilted in black thread except for the big flower blocks. She had appliqued those circles in the middle of the black square and I had to go in there with a brightly colored variegated thread and do different flower design to go with the quilt. I just love them.
* The pictures don't show the colored thread very well..but it is actually very bright against the black fabric.**
The pictures aren't very good...sorry.
Caroline sent quilters dream cotton batting for this quilt.
I also quilted this freehand on my INNOVA. No pantograph or computer quilting.
Thanks for looking!


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text:
My headline is not as catchy as Bridge Over Troubled Waters, but that about described the situation at San Tomas Aquino Creek trail last week when we had heavy rains.
Thanks to the city of Santa Clara and the Santa Clara Valley Water District, we have a creek-side trail that stays open year-round with the exception of the gully washers we see occasionally in the Bay Area.
If you think they're being unreasonable closing the trail, you would be wrong. Yesterday I captured a photo of some debris jammed between guard rails and left-over mud at the low spot just north of Monroe Avenue. Had that trail been open, you would not be safe there. Even if the water had receded, the trail would be coated with a thin lay of mud slicker than snot.
Now there's an invitation for a fall by anyone using the trail. This is not the only low spot that floods. The other location is next to a fire station at Agnew Road.
I don't know who does the clean-up, the city of Santa Clara or Santa Clara Valley Water District, but they deserve some high praise. I use the trail on my commute and it makes my day.
That leads me to a similar situation on Coyote Creek at Highway 237. This underpass could be a through trail, but it is not and according to my reliable source, there is no plan to make it accessible by bike or on foot. I have long wondered why. The reason given is that the underpass, which is lined with concrete and passable by a vehicle, is a box culvert subject to flooding. No disagreement there.
There is a way to fix that and we see it on San Tomas Aquino Creek Trail. Gates placed at strategic locations keep people out during heavy rains. (At minimum open it during the dry season.) It's an excellent system and one that could be applied at Coyote Creek.


text:
Guarding Against the Dangers of Vitamin D DeficiencyMay 2007
By Tiesha D. Johnson, BSN, RN
The long, dark days of another winter have come and gone. Tens of millions of Americans would be surprised to learn that winter has left them deficient in vitamin D. Your chances of being one of them are probably much greater than you imagine.
Vitamin D is synthesized in the skin in response to sunlight exposure, but few people achieve optimal levels this way, in part due to the limited ultraviolet light available during the winter months. This seasonal deficit is compounded by the fact that many people avoid sun exposure during the spring and summer months because of concern about premature skin aging and cancers like melanoma. Alarming new research suggests that these factors are contributing to a year-round epidemic of vitamin D deficiency, particularly in elderly adults.
Vitamin D does far more than promote healthy teeth and bones. Its role in supporting immunity, modulating inflammation, and preventing cancer make the consequences of vitamin D deficiency potentially devastating. A growing number of scientists who study vitamin D levels in human populations now recommend annual blood tests to check vitamin D status.
In this article, we examine the factors that contribute to the widespread prevalence of vitamin D deficiency, the latest studies supporting vitamin D's critical role in preventing disease, and how much supplemental vitamin D you need to achieve optimal blood levels.
Vitamin D Deficiency: An Overlooked Epidemic
Vitamin D is a fat-soluble prohormone—that is, it has no hormone activity itself, but is converted to a molecule that does, through a tightly regulated synthesis mechanism. Its two major forms are vitamin D2 (or ergocalciferol) and vitamin D3 (or cholecalciferol). Vitamin D also refers to metabolites and other analogues of these substances. Vitamin D3 is produced in skin exposed to sunlight, specifically ultraviolet B radiation.
While vitamin D is best known for promoting calcium absorption and bone health, researchers have recently discovered important new roles for this versatile vitamin.1 As an active hormone,2 vitamin D is now seen as playing a central role in controlling immunity and inflammation,1,3,4 two vital processes that are tied to a host of age-related disease conditions.5-10
Just as scientists are discovering critical new roles for vitamin D, they are also finding that shockingly few people have blood levels of vitamin D adequate to support their daily needs.5,6 One leading researcher has referred to this deficit as a "vitamin D epidemic."7 Estimates of the percentage of US adolescents and adults who are vitamin D deficient range from 21% to 58%,11 while as many as 54% of homebound older adults are believed to be vitamin D deficient.12
Because vitamin D3 is obtained in humans primarily as a result of exposure to sunlight,8 this puts people living outside the tropics at particular risk for vitamin D deficiency, especially from late fall to early spring.9 Further compounding the problem, many public health officials are concerned that their warnings about avoiding the sun because of skin cancer risk may in fact be causing people to limit their sun exposure to an unhealthy extent.10,13
Because sun exposure does pose significant health risks, and most Americans live outside of the regions where they can get adequate sun in winter, perhaps the best way to address this dilemma is by paying close attention to your blood levels of vitamin D and optimizing them through appropriate supplementation. Life Extension recommends that adults check their blood levels and supplement with enough vitamin D3 to achieve optimal blood levels.6-8
To meet all of the body's needs for proper vitamin D activity, many scientists now advocate supplementing with doses that are considerably higher than the minimums currently recommended by the Institute of Medicine.14 While vitamin D can be obtained through a few dietary sources such as fish, eggs, and dairy products, these foods fail to provide the daily levels required by most individuals, thus necessitating vitamin D supplementation.
Applications for Preventing and Treating Cancer
Strong epidemiological data now implicate low vitamin D levels in at least 16 different malignancies.47 Powerful clinical evidence indicates that vitamin D may be useful in preventing and even treating colon and prostate cancers, while suggestive evidence points to its effects in countering lung, breast, skin, and other cancers.16,47
Colon Cancer
Twenty-five years of research suggests that detecting and correcting vitamin D deficiency may be especially important in averting colon cancer, a disease that claims approximately 56,000 lives each year in the United States.48
An early study of 1,954 men found that those with the lowest vitamin D intake had more than double the risk of colon cancer compared to men with the highest intake.49 Colon cells reproduce very quickly, placing them at risk for becoming malignant. When active vitamin D was applied to colon cells in culture, reproduction rates fell by 57% in normal colon tissue and by 52% in patients with familial adenomatous polyposis, an inherited syndrome characterized by many pre-cancerous polyps.50 In a laboratory study, pretreatment with vitamin D made colon cancer cells easier to kill with hydrogen peroxide and other natural oxidants present in the bowel.51
A large randomized trial from 2003 helped to establish a clinical role for vitamin D in preventing colon cancer.52 Eight hundred three subjects with previous colorectal adenomas (which can lead to cancer if they recur) were given calcium supplements or placebo, and their rates of adenoma recurrence were measured. Calcium supplements reduced the risk of adenoma recurrence by 29% in subjects with normal D levels. This study demonstrated that both calcium and adequate vitamin D levels are needed to reduce colon cancer risk.
In a 2006 study,53 researchers surgically divided individual adenomatous (potentially precancerous) polyps, removing approximately 50% from 19 patients. They marked the remnants of the polyps in the intestine so they could identify them later, and studied cell proliferation in the polyp tissue before and after six months of treatment with oral vitamin D3 (400 IU) and calcium carbonate (1500 mg, three times daily) or placebo. Adenomas from patients treated with calcium and vitamin D3 showed marked declines in cell proliferation and other signs of cancerous change, while there was no change in tissue taken from the control patients.
Cancer prevention specialists at the University of California recently conducted an extensive review of scientific papers published worldwide between 1966 and 2004. Their analysis suggested that taking 1000 international units (IU) of vitamin D3 daily lowers an individual's risk of developing colorectal cancer by 50%. The researchers recommended increased intake of vitamin D3 as an inexpensive, non-toxic preventive therapy for colon cancer. Specifically, they hope to see the federal government officially recommend intake of 1000 IU per day of vitamin D3 for cancer prevention.48


text:
But I guess that would indicate a good weekend, huh? Robbie and I had another lovely couple of days, very laid back and relaxed. Just our style. Let's have a little recap.
Saturday morning Robbie had to go into work for a few hours [it's busy season, remember?], so I hopped off [not literally] to the gym to meet Hollyann for a little workout. That afternoon, I met up with Robbie at Starbucks to work for a few more hours, and then we were off to the Creighton Men's Basketball game vs. Bradley. All in all, the game wasn't too crazy, there didn't seem to be much energy from the players or fans. It was one of those games where you knew the 'good' team would pull it out, so regardless of a close score no one got overly excited. But Creighton did 'pull it out', marking their 20th win of the season.
On Sunday, Robbie and I got our hair[s] cut together and then hung out with the pups at home for the rest of the day. And don't worry, I definitely got some baking in on Sunday with our free time, but I'm saving that kitchen adventure for later this week. So stay tuned.
Anywho, what do these Banana Bread Bars have to do with anything? Well, nothing. I'm having a hard time correlating anything significant from our weekend to these bars. Dang it. But one thing is for sure, they are outrageously addicting and will become one of my go-to banana recipes from here on out. They are that scrumptious.
You may recall the Banana Cake I made just a bit ago and say to yourself "what's the diff?". And you'll say 'diff', too. Now don't get me wrong, the Banana Cake was fantastic, as every recipe has been from Bake or Break, and much more of a classic rendition. But what we have here is anything but classic. However, I still can't seem to fathom why I haven't seen more recipes with bananas and brown butter, because this, ladies and gents, should be illegal. In all 50 states.
These bars? OooOOo, these bars. So stinkin' good! The banana bars themselves are, yes, reminiscent of banana bread, yet a touch more dense. They actually kind of remind me of the texture of my favorite Pumpkin Bars, ridiculously moist and full. And the banana flavor is extrememly prominent but absolutely wonderful. But what takes these bars to the next level and beyond is the brown butter frosting. I can't really explain it, but this combination just works. More than works, actually. It's like peanut butter and jelly, simply made for each other. Got me?
Please note, my description did, in no way, do these bars justice. You'll just have to make them to see for yourself. Waistline, be warned .
My Notes:
- When browning the butter, make sure to pay close attention. The 'turn' happens quickly and before you know it, you'll have extra burnt butter, which is not good...
Banana Bread Bars:
1-1/2 c. sugar
1 c. sour cream
1/2 c. butter, softened
2 eggs
1-3/4 c. (3 or 4) ripe bananas, mashed
2 tsp. vanilla extract
2 c. all purpose flour
1 tsp. baking soda
3/4 tsp. salt
1/2 c. chopped walnuts (optional)
Brown Butter Frosting:
1/2 c. butter
4 c. powdered sugar
1-1/2 tsp. vanilla extract
3 tbsp. milk
1. Heat oven to 375F. Grease and flour 15x10-inch jelly roll pan. For the bars, in a large bowl, beat together sugar, sour cream, butter, and eggs until creamy. Blend in bananas and vanilla extract. Add flour, baking soda, salt, and blend for 1 minute. Stir in walnuts.
2. Spread batter evenly into pan. Bake 20 to 25 minutes or until golden brown.
3. Meanwhile, for frosting, heat butter in a large saucepan over medium heat until boiling. Let the butter turn a delicate brown and remove from heat immediately.
4. Add powdered sugar, vanilla extract and milk. Whisk together until smooth (it should be thicker than a glaze but thinner than frosting). Using a spatula, spread the brown butter frosting over the warm bars (the frosting will be easier to spread while the bars are still warm).


text:
Korean BBQ Beef (Bulgogi)
2 pounds sirloin, sliced across the grain on the diagonal bias 3 cloves garlic, minced 3 scallions, chopped 1 onion, chopped 1/3 cup soy sauce 2 tablespoons sesame oil 2 teaspoons honey Freshly ground black pepper 1/2 teaspoon sugar 1 tablespoon kochujang (Korean red pepper paste) 1/2 teaspoon sesame oil 1 head green leaf lettuce
InstructionsWith the back of a knife, pound each slice of beef lightly to tenderize it. In a bowl combine the remaining ingredients. The mixture should have thick consistency. Add the marinade to the meat and mix well with your hands, making sure each piece is coated. Cover with plastic and let sit for at least 1 hour. Cook the beef in one layer on a tabletop hibachi. The meat should be well done, and the outside caramelized. In a bowl, combine sugar and kochujang. Pour sesame oil over the mixture. Serve the beef with green leaf lettuce and the kochujang mixture. Servings: 4 servings


text:
Artukka wrote:Source of the post And it's not just that McNulty defied the chain of command, he was fucking with the program by getting himself detailed and Santangelo detailed so there were two fewer detectives available to work the Homicide rotation. The rotation may not be a perfect system*, but it's a system and even good systems can start to break down when there's a rogue element hell bent on rocking the boat. Notice that nobody (not even the cops who so far have been portrayed as being more competent/sympathetic) seems particularly happy about what McNulty did. Nobody's reaction is "well it's about damned time!" Instead they range from annoyed to astonished to mildly amused.
Good insight! How many times have you seen this pilot episode? You seem so wise!
CrckrJack wrote:Source of the postTyler wrote:Source of the postI still can't name a single member of the narcotics team.
There is the black lady and two white guys, duh.
Will something come of the 2 male officers missing a gun and mishandling the paperwork? I am guessing this was just to show them as incompetent compared to their female counterpart


text:
June 2004
Female silkworm moth on a cocoon. Some transgenic silkworms spin industrial-strength fibers. Photo: Fastily, Creative Commons.
A transgenic organism is any living creature, such as a bacterium, plant, or animal that has received a foreign gene by means of genetic engineering. There are many applications for transgenic organisms in the health and food industries. Scientists have developed a variety of transgenic silkworms that spin industrial-strength or glow-in-the-dark fibers, for example, or make silk with human proteins. A mosquito may soon be engineered to be unable to carry one type of malaria parasite. Field tests are underway to determine the safety of using transgenic pink bollworms, designed to spread sterility to wild bollworms, to protect agricultural crops. Most transgenic research is still in the development phase, and now is the time to address the impact of transgenics on the environment, crop production, and animal and human health.
What are transgenic insects?
Insects are made transgenic when one or more DNA sequences from other organisms are inserted into their genome. The accepted method for making transgenic insects is to splice the DNA intended for insertion into a mobile element, also known as a "jumping gene." A jumping gene is a segment of DNA that can be integrated at many different sites along a chromosome. In our lab we use a mobile element, called piggyBac, that was discovered by Malcolm Fraser at the University of Notre Dame.1
Interestingly, when the human genome was finally sequenced, many copies of an inactive mobile element from bacteria, calledmariner, were found. Several copies of a piggyBac homolog named looper were also identified. How many other similar genes might be present is not known because they are not easy to identify and characterize; however, one current theory suggests these jumping genes play a role in human evolution.2
Agricultural uses for designer insects
The first application of the new transgenic insect technology is likely to be improvements in the sterile insect technique (SIT). SIT was developed by Edward F. Knipling from peaceful uses of atomic energy. The method employs
- mass rearing of pest insects
- exposing them to damaging radiation at levels that cause sterility
- releasing them over infested areas so that they swamp out reproduction in wild populations
SIT programs have been used for a variety of insects, including Medfly, codling moth, and pink bollworm.3-5 However, some obstacles must be overcome:
- Some insects can't be mass reared.
- Mass rearing sometimes adds to improved population numbers but at the expense of fitness. (Fitness is the ability of an organism to adapt to its environment.)
- Currently the technique involves sterilization of insects with radiation, which further reduces their fitness.
To make pink bollworms sterile using SIT, the pupal stage is exposed to gamma rays, causing massive chromosome breakage that the cells then attempt to repair by natural mechanisms. The result is the main functions of the cells are retained and the resulting adults are sterile. A side effect of the process is lower competitive mating behavior in the transgenic insects as compared to non-irradiated ones. To compensate for this, very large numbers of SIT insects are released in an attempt to counteract the mating vigor of the wild populations; in pink bollworm SIT, the ratio of sterile to wild insects is 60:1 (by contrast, the ratio is 100:1 in Medfly SIT). The pink bollworm SIT program is ongoing in California (Figure 1).
Figure 1.
Map of California and its counties shows the main cotton growing areas (green) and the pink bollworm quarantine zone (red). Pink bollworm is established in the two counties shown in red but not in the large green area in the Central Valey. An SIT program aimed at preventing the spread of pink bollworm from the infested areas into the Central Valley has been in operation since 1969. SIT pink bollworms are shipped daily from mass-rearing facilities in Phoenix, AZ, for release in central California's uninfested areas.
The next step in controlling pink bollworms is to create a transgenic insect that can breed with, and transfer sterility to, wild insects. How do you breed sterile transgenics? Insertion of a single "conditional" lethal gene into pink bollworms eliminates their susceptibility to radiation's side effects under certain conditions. Notch is the first conditional lethal gene to be discovered that allows mass rearing of insects. Our lab found the Notch gene in Drosophila melanogaster, the vinegar (fruit) fly, in 1994.6 For an unknown reason the Notch protein works above room temperature to help the embryo develop, but it interferes with embryonic development below room temperature and is therefore conditionally lethal. By mixing a strain of Drosophila melanogaster having two copies of the Notch mutation with an equal number of wild types, we caused the population to collapse in three generations. When we attempted to insert Notch into pink bollworms, however, we ran into the first major problem. Genetic elements that work perfectly well in Drosophila, a fly, do not necessary work the same way or work at all in distantly related insects such as the pink bollworm, a moth. This process is still in development.
The second lethal gene, nipper, also from the vinegar fly and also a developmental gene, was discovered by Luke Alphey of Oxford University, UK. Alphey and his company, Oxitec, UK, made a more elaborate lethal construct that they hope will be used for a number of pest control cases. In transgenic pink bollworms, the lethal effects of nipper are switched off in the presence of the antibiotic, tetracycline, which is used in mass rearing to suppress bacterial infections. When released in the wild, where no tetracycline is available, adult pink bollworms mate and pass on the lethal effect to the next generation of the field population, making them perfect candidates for the new SIT. Alphey and his colleagues at Oxitec are also working to solve the problem of making genes from the vinegar fly work in other insects.7
The problem of transgenic insect fitness
Laboratory rearing of insects naturally selects for traits and behaviors that are not compatible with competitive behavior in the wild, which is one of the dilemmas of the SIT approach. Occasionally lab strains are outcrossed with wild strains to counteract the effects of inbreeding and lack of competition.
The process of making transgenic organisms introduces another form of fitness loss. The act of introducing a new gene, even when inserted by the "natural" mechanism using mobile elements, always leaves the recipient weak, in most cases fatally weak. Of the hundreds of trial insertion events only a few transgenic individuals are able to survive. Fitness is improved by breeding with healthy stocks and then selecting pure strains.
Any attempts to release transgenic insects into the wild would encounter these same issues, that is, reduced fitness compared to wild types because of lab rearing and gene insertion. The first experiment in which transgenic mosquitoes (with fluorescent protein gene markers) were allowed to mix with wild populations in a confined cage study showed the transgenes to naturally decline quickly over time. This is exactly what happens with transgenic pink bollworms. And yet, surprisingly, it took from 4 to 16 generations for any vestiges of the transgenes to finally disappear. I expected reversion to wild type to occur more quickly, and perhaps in the wild it would.8
Designing symbionts for control of plant diseases
Paratransgenesis, another use of transgenic technology in crop protection, is the technique of inserting genes into symbionts that live in host organisms. A symbiont is an organism that depends on another organism (the host) to survive; an example is a clownfish that finds shelter and food in the tentacles of the sea anemone.
Figure 2.
In the Chagas disease model, used here to illustrate symbiotic control, the insect vector is a 'kissing' or blood-sucking bug that transmits the blood-borne disease from wild and domestic animals to humans; a protozoan is the pathogen and a bacterium is the symbiont (colored circles in the insect's gut). The first step in symbiotic control is to pick a symbiont that is already present in the vector insect (red circles, step 1 on the drawing). Next, genetically alter the symbiont (purple circles, step 2) to carry a gene product that is lethal to the pathogenic agent. Then insert the altered symbiont back onto the vector insect (step 3) to spread the lethal gene to any protozoans encountered when the inset ingests a blood meal.
Paratransgenesis was pioneered by Frank Richards at Yale University, and our lab borrowed its principles to develop a method to counteract the threat of Pierce's disease in California.
- The key feature of symbiotic control, which uses symbionts to control pests or disease, is identifying a symbiont that has both an intimate relationship (called mutualism) with a diseased host and access to the pest or pathogen attacking it.
The difference between symbiotic control and biological control, which uses organisms such as parasites or predators to control pests or disease, is the transgenic pest organism acts as a symbiotic control agent itself rather than parasites or predators acting to control the pest.
Symbiotic control is different from ordinary microbial pesticides, which are used the same as commercial insecticides, in having greater selectivity and fewer side effects. The symbiotic agent can be designed to affect only the pathogen causing the given disease (Fig. 2).
Chardonnay grape leaves in a commercial vineyard in Temecula, CA, show signs of Pierce's disease. This grapevine is near a field plot where a method to control Pierce's disease is being tested. Note that grapes are still being produced in the presence of the disease. Photo: © 2004, Blake Bextine.
Pierce's disease is caused by a strain of a bacterium called Xylella fastidiosa (XF). XF originated on the Gulf of Mexico 150 years ago and came to California probably in infected grapevines. Historically, Pierce's disease occurred on rare occasions in California and disappeared equally quickly because the native leafhoppers are poor at spreading the pathogen.
More recently, in the mid 1980s, the glassy-winged sharpshooter (GWSS), a leafhopper native to southeastern United States where Pierce's disease is endemic, arrived in California. The new arrival changed everything because it is very efficient at spreading the pathogen that causes Pierce's disease. Other strains of XF bacterium were also spread such that southern California is now suffering from an epidemic of oleander leaf scorch and similar diseases in ornamental trees.
Symbiotic control is one biotechnology choice for controlling Pierce's disease. So far in our experiments:
- Carol Lauzon found a symbiont, tentatively identified as Alcaligenes xylosoxidans var. denitrificans (Axd), from the foregut of the glassy-winged sharpshooter10
- David Lampe inserted fluorescent marker genes into the chromosome of Axd (RAxd)11
- Blake Bextine worked out methods of following the movement of symbionts from sharpshooters to host plants12
Confined field trials in commercial vineyards, supported by a permit from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), have shown that RAxd:
- does not move into the berries or stems of the developing grapevines
- does not survive in the soil
- is replaced rapidly by non-transgenic wild populations of Axd and other symbionts that are a natural part of the ecosystem
More recently, Lampe produced Axd with a marker gene and a gene product that tested lethal to the pathogen. We've called it S1RAxd. Bextine is busy testing the new organism for its ability to cure grapevines of Pierce's disease and prevent transmission of the pathogen. So far these are all strictly laboratory experiments. We have not received the necessary approval to conduct open field trials. The confined field trials mentioned above were conducted in commercial vineyards with the plants bagged to prevent access by wild insects, and the plants were destroyed at the end of the experiments.
State and federal programs have kept Pierce's disease muted in southern California so far by quarantine restrictions and by insecticide treatments of GWSS in over-wintering host citrus orchards. The grape and wine industry has signaled that they will not accept a transgenic grapevine solution to this threat, thus taking a major biotechnology tool away. A transgenic insect approach is not practical because GWSS cannot be cultured in large numbers in the laboratory, and classical biological control with parasites and predators can suppress the GWSS but not below the economically tolerable disease threshold of one GWSS per plant. And the grape and wine industry has not yet indicated its position on symbiotic control.
Regulation of transgenic and paratransgenic insects
The Pew Initiative on Food and Biotechnology has called for adoption of strict regulations of genetically modified insects in its January 2004 report.13 The EPA calls the new S1RAxd organism a "microbial pesticide," and while this application of symbionts is new, there are laws already in place for regulating it.
The major concern with Axd is it is related to a bacterium, if not the same bacterium, that causes nosocomial infections, meaning infections contracted in hospitals, especially, in this case, in the lungs of cystic fibrosis patients. Thus, before any registration would be permitted for a microbial pesticide to be used to control Pierce's disease in vineyards, this issue would have to be dealt with.
The regulatory process involves science-based risk assessment and uses the public forum as a sounding board and to uncover potential issues the public might have with registration and use. The genetically modified pink bollworm project uncovered an attitude in some individuals and groups that we "should not be doing this," and this view was officially adopted by the California Fish and Game Commission.
Regulatory officials have to respond to objections to the application of new technologies. They cannot respond to vague misgivings; the law does not allow them to do that. But they can measure and deal with safety issues, such as Axd's alleged nosocomial property. The use of transgenic insects to improve SIT is seen by many as the least risky test of this new technology because the aim is population collapse rather than the spreading of genes through a population.14
Is man in control of nature or the other way around?
The two agriculture pest problems outlined above, pink bollworm and Pierce's disease, were both caused by human activities. Initially, pink bollworms, which originated in India, were unknowingly dispersed globally as contaminating larvae in cotton seed shipments. Cotton growers thought it would improve their yields; instead they got a major crop pest. The pathogen causing Pierce's disease and later the glassy-winged sharpshooter were carried to California inadvertently and now threaten crops and ornamentals alike.
Accidental introduction of the pink bollworm illustrates the fallacy in the common notion that humans are in control of nature. However, recombinant DNA technologies are considered by some to be dabbling with creation.
Certainly, inserting genes into insects or their symbionts raises the issue that genes may move horizontally between species, as well as human safety and ethics concerns. However, the transgenic insects are not fully competitive with the wild type, although they are competitive enough to decrease reproduction of pests. In addition, they lose in competition with wild types and self-destruct in a few weeks. Given that reality, it is hard to understand why these laboratory creations are going to be a problem. You don't get more vigorous organisms unless you allow selection to occur in nature. Nothing coming out of a laboratory is going to be able to compete with the natural process because an artificial environment lacks full selection criteria.
The fact that transgene fragments can survive as long as they do is somewhat puzzling, but it makes sense if nature has a method of saving spare DNA parts for possible later use. When pest insects develop resistance to insecticides, or when microbes develop resistance to antibiotics, and the pesticides or antibiotics are withdrawn, the organisms revert back to susceptibility. But upon reintroducing the same products later, we find resistance occurs much faster the second time around. This is a form of a population saving "remnants" for later use (in this case insecticide resistance to the first compound) at the DNA level. It is a glimpse of the powerful drive for successful DNA replication, but it suggests we may never be able to completely control a population.
© 2004, American Institute of Biological Sciences. Educators have permission to reprint articles for classroom use; other users, please contact firstname.lastname@example.com for reprint permission. See reprint policy.


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Celebrating illustration, design, cartoon and comic art of the mid-20th century.
Monday, March 02, 2009
The Artists of Blue Book: John Fulton
That got me thinking about the small handful of issues of Blue Book I've accumulated, and how I've often thought I'd like to spend a week showcasing some of the artists who regularly appeared in those pages. First up then, is John Fulton.
From Walt Reed's book, The Illustrator in America, I learned that John Russell Fulton was born in Valley Center, Kansas in 1896, and that he grew up in the Oklahoma Indian Territory "with all the youthful adventures of frontier life."
He began his career illustrating for various Mid-West newspapers before switching to advertising illustration, with Redbook and Blue Book as his chief clients.
For Redbook, Reed tells us, Fulton did oil paintings in the manner of Harvey Dunn. But for Blue Book, he developed the drybrush inking style you see here. I think you'll agree, its a gutsy and effective technique.
Fulton often added a second colour, also done in drybrush ink, to give his work greater depth. Blue Book was printed on very rough, cheap newsprint, so Fulton was, I think, trying to find a way to get the most out of his work to offset the poor reproduction quality of the magazine.
Blue Book was very much a man's magazine. Its pages are filled with tough-guy fiction in a wide variety of settings and time periods.
When I acquired my small collection of Blue Books, I had the good fortune to get issues that bridged a transition period in the 'look' of the magazine's visual content. Fulton's work (and the work of the other artists we'll focus on this week) is very much from the old look of Blue Book.
When I look at these illustrations, I could imagine that they might be from the 1930's - or even earlier. In fact, they are from the October 1944 issue. From previous posts showing work by many other illustrators during that period, you'll know that the general look of magazine illustration was far more modern than what you see here!
That makes Blue Book kind of a fascinating oddity. An island of really old school styles in an industry that was fast forwarding into the space age. I doubt John Fulton and his fellow Blue Book-ers could have hoped for many assignments from any other mainstream magazines. Fulton was still working in this style for Blue Book right up to and including 1951 - when Don Kennicot moved up the ladder to Associate Publisher and Len Romagna took over as Art Director.
Considering everything you've seen in previous posts, can you imagine John Fulton's work still finding a home in print in the early 50's? It hardly seems possible. What this reinforces once again is the fickle nature of the illustration business. Styles come in and go out of fashion and - no matter how good you are - if you can't adapt, you get left behind.
My John Fulton Flickr set.
6 comments:
I was barely familiar with Fulton's illos. and only within the past 5 years. The cover painting for Blue Book by Fulton, seems more contemporary than the dry brush illos. At one time Blue book was a training ground for up and coming illustrators. It gave them a chance to develop their talent before moving on to the slick publications.ReplyDelete
An interesting thought: What was the engine that drove style and taste in illustration... the public, social conditions, the fine art world, fashions, or perhaps Hollywood?
Tom Watson
An interesting question, Tom. One I would probably answer with "all of the above" ;^) -- more accurately I would venture that illustration was such an integral part of this milieu that they were all influencing each other.ReplyDelete
We already know, for instance, that Al Parker's 'Mother/Daughter' covers for LHJ launched a nation-wide fashion movement of mother/daughter outfits. And with Hollywood celebrities hobknobbing at the Stork Club with Albert Dorne and Jon Whitcomb (and then appearing in their illustrations) the interconnectedness of the various popular cultural elements of the period is again demonstrated.
Regarding Fulton and Blue Book: I think the magazine was something of a training ground (for the likes of Austin Briggs, as we now know) and a sort of retirement home (for artists like Fulton and some others I'll be showcasing this week). The cover painting is among the last pieces Fulton may have done for BB (dating from 1951). In 1952, the magazine underwent a complete visual makeover and artists like W. David Shaw and Howard Willard became mainstays. All the Fultons were shown the door.
I didn't know Fulton at all, thanks for sharing Leif.ReplyDelete
Thanks for highlighting the work of my grandfather, John Fulton. I've looked at his work all my life, but you have put it into context magnificently. This was a fascinating post.
Steve Fulton
- Christine sadel5:19 PM
I own that oil painting and I'm trying to get a value on it, any suggestions who would know?ReplyDelete


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Our fourth apothecary will open June 2013 in Carnegie Hill. Here is a history of our marvelous new digs:
Carnegie Hill is a neighborhood within the Upper East Side, in the borough of Manhattan in New York City. Its boundaries extend from 86th Street on the south to 96th Street and Spanish Harlem to the north, between Fifth Avenue (Central Park) on the west and Third Avenue on the east. Carnegie Hill is widely considered one of the most prestigious residential areas of New York City.
The neighborhood is named for the mansion that Andrew Carnegie built at Fifth Avenue and 91st Street in 1901. Today the mansion houses the Cooper-Hewitt, National Design Museum, a branch of the Smithsonian Institution. Facing it on 91st Street is the Otto Kahn House, a Florentine palazzo, now housing the private school, Convent of the Sacred Heart. A number of other townhouses in the area have been converted to schools, including the Spence School and the Lycée Français, a former Vanderbilt House on 93rd.
The architecture of the neighborhood includes apartment buildings along Park Avenue and Fifth Avenue, brownstones (with stoops) and townhouses on the side streets, condos, co-ops and a handful of mansions now used by organizations including the The Jewish Museum, the National Academy of Design and the Dalton School. Frank Lloyd Wright's celebrated Guggenheim Museum is on Fifth Avenue and the New York Road Runners occupies a townhouse around the corner at 9 East 89th Street. The famous 92nd Street Y calls Carnegie Hill its home as well.
We are excited to soon be included in the historical account of Carnegie Hill!
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When I was asked to produce a video about the Chiang Mai Sustainable Urban Transport Project, I thought it would be really interesting for me to see how Thailand's second largest city had changed. The last time I visited Chiang Mai before this was 15 years ago, in the 1990s.
Chiang Mai is now very vibrant and full of potential. There is an energetic, creative buzz about it and yet it still manages to hold on to its unique heritage and identity.
It is also attracting people. Migrant workers from the Greater Mekong Subregion, expatriates, and tourists around the world are visiting. I know several business owners from Bangkok and overseas who choose to be based here. There are also many foreign tourists. China's biggest box-office movie, Lost in Thailand, was filmed in the city and boosted tourism significantly.
Consider Chiang Mai's infrastructure, which has to accommodate everyone. The basics are there- water supply, electricity, and telecommunication coverage. But one issue that jumps out at me is transportation. It is almost the same as it was 15 years ago. The 700-year-old city center is surrounded by a square-shape moat, with and the Ping River to its east and Doi Sutep Mountain to the west. Streets in this old city center cannot be expanded any more.
For a visitor like me, the main options to get around are mainly through songtheaws (red trucks that serve as public transportation) and tuk-tuks. I used both the last time I was there. Hiring a rental car is also an option. For the locals, the solution is to use a car or a motorcycle.
There's a price that comes with a city's growth. Since there are more cars on the street the traffic is getting worse. The vibration that comes from the noise emanating from large vehicles can damage the walls of precious religious and historical sites. Car fumes and exhaust can cause a deterioration of health and contribute to the green-house effect.
Are there solutions? I look at the city center's square-shape moat and realize that people could easily walk if they want to. I notice that bicycle rental shops are everywhere.
I try riding a bicycle. It's thrilling but not in a good way- anxiety kicks in when I'm surrounded by speeding vehicles. I've mastered the stationary bike at the gym but nothing more. The ride would also have been more pleasant if there were more greenery around to absorb the heat.
Some Chiang Mai residents are of the same opinion as me. Please have a look at the video above.
An iconic image representing Chiang Mai in the minds of Thais is that of a lady in a traditional dress, riding a bicycle while holding up an umbrella. I'd like to imagine that this old image of Chiang Mai can once again be revived in the consciousness of its people. People can ride a bicycle to work or school instead of taking cars or motorcycles that emit fumes.
One can say that Chiang Mai's progress is typical of what happens in secondary cities in Thailand and in the developing world. Motor vehicles flood the streets as these cities grow. But they can also go for green alternatives. As I produced my video and interviewed people, I clearly saw that people cared about Chiang Mai and their communities. That's a good place to start.
What are the modes of transport in your city? What are good, green alternative ways to get around?
Join the Conversation
- No first buy car scheme.
- Ban cars from the inner city
- Charge a fee for people who want to drive to the inner area of the super highway
- Build parking houses on the outside of city and link them a convenient public transportation mode to travel into the city center
- Have secure driveways for bicycles
Please visit to get some information related to non-motorize transport promotion in Chiang Mai Municipality
Electric scooters/motorcycles
I am currently in Bangkok, Thailand conducting an environmental life cycle assessment and financial analysis of implementing electric motorcycles in Thailand's major cities as a strategy to reduce energy consumption in Thailand's transportation sector while reducing urban air pollution. My work is very much related to the goals of this project tin Chiang Mai. Is there someone I could contact in order to discuss my work? Please let me know.
Please visit this website to get contact persons name in Southeast Asian cities including Chiang Mai city