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Background Designers Unlimited
If you want a nice-looking, what do you do blog header image? What should you do if you want to have an info-graphic? What do you do if you if you want: Designers Unlimited
- A new logo
- A physical product layout
- Graphics for your child's birthday celebration
- A PDF to look professional designed
- An advertisement designed
- Sales page images
- T-shirt layouts
Well, all Of much more and those things are occupations that Design Pickle has done over the past couple of months for me. So, you may post and out a job for a designer each time you've got a tiny graphic design work to perform.
Or you could get it all done in One place. Oh, and it is"infinite" (more on this later) designs for one flat monthly fee.
Inside This Design Pickle Review Strategy to share what I like, what I do not like, and what I have learned over the past year as I've employed Design Pickle for my design needs.
I highly recommend that you check out Design Pickle Right Here.
What's DESIGN PICKLE?
In Case You Haven't heard, Design Pickle is an all-in-one graphic design support for one monthly fee. It is possible to get infinite designs.
Alright, However, what does"unlimited" really mean? About the design pickle site it says,"boundless requests","unlimited revisions","unlimited brands". All of those things are true. I want you to go in with a transparent understanding of what that really means.
Sure, you may submit infinite Requests and have boundless brands, but it doesn't mean you will acquire unlimited real designs each month done. I should not expect to get 1 million unique design jobs accomplished in a month for just $370 if I submit 1 million project requests in a month. That's crazy talk.
The way it works is that you've got Essentially one designer assigned to your accounts. The exact same graphic designer also functions on a few different accounts (you aren't the only client they work with).
Basically, a Number of your jobs will Get finished faster or slower depending on how active they are. However, what I've found is that I can usually expect 2 or 3 graphic design tasks to be completed a day.
This depends on the complexity. Simple jobs will get more done, more complicated jobs will take. Designers Unlimited
My experience with Design Pickle
I have been a client for over 3 decades and filed 1800+ design asks.
When I subscribed, we Had a start but that was my fault.
I soon learned the Designs I have back were just like the design brief they had to work with.
Thus, I knuckled down and composed Out a template brief that included as much information as possible.
This made it mad fast for Me to fill but still gave my designer sufficient information to use.
And I have had Exactly the exact same dedicated designer, John (he's awesome). We've worked together for so long he knows exactly what sort of images I am searching for.
You have to scroll Through our blog archives to see lots of illustrations.
And according to examples I've Seen for other clients, Design Pickle is capable of a whole lot more!
7 items I seriously adore about Design Pickle
Committed designer — Working with one designer (unless they are on vacation ) means they know what type of pictures I like. Perfect for consistency. My devoted designer, John, is incredible.
No contracts — I will cancel my strategy anytime. However, I get as much value out of this service that I do not think I'll actually cancel.
The service is rock solid — Design Pickle have been moving for a while now. I've been a client for over 3 years. The processes and support team they have in place is outstanding. I have signed up for services from other providers that offer comparable"unlimited" style offerings and one specifically just wasted my cash because they didn't have the kinks worked out within their own service. This isn't the case with Design Pickle — they know what they're doing and they provide.
Huge number of design resources — Working for so many customers means access to design assets. This saves time for everybody and the upside for the client is more high-tech vision.
Option of which document types you get delivered — You have to pick which file types have been delivered. If you'd like editable files like PSD's, AI files, etc you can select which you desire. You'll also receive the"ready to use" type files like PNG, JPG etc.. And you also can specify which file types when submitting your request.
Unlimited jobs — that I run a bunch of different sites, which list is only likely to increase. But that's not likely to be an issue
My branding resources are stored on file to save everybody time Whenever I launch a new website, I send the branding resources (logo documents, etc) to encourage and they receive them saved. So I just have to specify the project in the subject line of my email and they do the rest. How I use Design Pickle right now
Since I am asked about my Graphics so much, I wanted to discuss a little more on exactly how I utilize Design Pickle right now.
When a brand new blog post is Completed I'll decide whether we need an picture that was in-content to backup any of the content. If it does, I'll write up a short and submit it to Design Pickle through email.
I'll talk about this Briefs at a moment, but it will generally include a description of what I need, required picture dimensions and hyperlinks to picture examples for inspiration. Designers Unlimited
Then I have three templates For three distinct layout briefs:
Featured images
Each pair of featured images Are focused on a single design concept, with"flat" styled pictures. They're cartoony, but not 3D.
I ask for the image Delivered in many different sizes:
700 x 300 pixels — This comes with a flat/cartoon-like graphic overlayed onto a backdrop. The image dimensions are what I use for my featured picture in WordPress
1200 x 628 pixels — This image is the same as above. And is sized for when content is shared with networks such as LinkedIn and Facebook. We use a plugin named Social Warfare for our discuss buttonsthat makes it possible for us to upload picture sizes.
1080 x 1080 pixels — Here is the image we use for discussing on Instagram.
What is About ordering these measurements great is that I have an entire set of images that are constant I can use for the blog and networks that are popular.
Extra Pinterest images
While images are Perfect for branding, they do not always work too on Pinterest.
I submit a petition for Images that I'll share to Pinterest. They will look different, although these be the 735 x 1102 dimensions and can still have our logo on.
In my request, I will send 3 Various titles for the post and example graphics.
This gives me the ability to Experiment with various designs, and schedule pins throughout the year for exposure. And because a pin's lifespan is longer than another kind of networking that is social content, the outcomes could be great.
Thorough Pinterest images
Pinterest is a traffic Powerhouse I've been working on upping my Pinterest game.
Infographics typically do They may be expensive which makes tricky.
Here's what I do instead:
I produce snappy and a short Headline dependent on the article title. Then I look over the post to find some information that might be utilised in a standalone graphic.
Based on the size of the Article, this may just be a listing of each of the tips in a single post or it might be that the sub-headings within a section of this site article.
The Wonderful thing about these Kinds of images is they add instant value and also can promote sharing more. Designers Unlimited
Now, each of those brief's Counts as a petition. So for each post I'm submitting 3+ requests, based on how many in-content images we desire.
And any — I won't be needed by some Like imagery to be purposeful as possible.
It's also worth noting that We'll occasionally use blog images to market the post.
As I build our Instagram plan , I'll be making changes. I will probably expand my design requests for each post from blog posts to add suggestions and quotes.
I highly recommend that you check out Design Pickle Right Here.
A few other ways I utilize Design Pickle
I mainly use Design Pickle For design work on new articles, but there are a few ways I leverage their solutions.
As an Example, I had a logo for 1 project that was not enough resolution that is large — they delivered a higher resolution picture and converted into a vector picture.
Then there's the editing of Pictures on the blog infographics.
Outside of editing Pictures, they produce some graphics that I use when updating older content .
In my article on SEO Tactics, I discuss the significance of going over old articles and updating them.
This can help you get a nice Bump of traffic especially from search engines.
The Majority of the time folks Upgrade the material but what can help push things much further is imagery. Notably vision which other individuals are going to want to mention in their articles (that means backlinks + more visitors for you).
Lately, I did a whole Rewrite of my article. I wrote it years ago and it was in extreme need of an upgrade.
To follow the rewrite, I Had Design Pickle create some in-content images as well as a pair of images that are featured .
This included a custom graphic To back up among the points in my article:
In the End of this post I included a listing of niche thoughts. So instead of displaying this we exhibited the data as an image instead.
It's a image so I won't Include it here, but if you'd like to take a look, it's at the bottom of this article.
The upside?
These custom post Both Images are linkable assets. This means they can be leveraged for connection building functions! And used in media campaigns.
It will require a subscription to to get images like these Getty Images. This is managed by Design Pickle so you simply pay an extra $25/month. Well worth it, in my opinion.
IS THE DESIGN PICKLE PRICE WORTH THE Price?
If you Are like me, you truly want to know what the line is. Will you be spending more or less using Design Pickle? Would it make sense to simply hire a graphic designer for tasks that are one-off or utilize their service? Designers Unlimited
You Will Need to think through The calculation to your business since you may have less complex or more tasks that you will request.
Here's my thought process:
To get a very site Header image done, it would cost me anywhere from $10 to $100. Only crazy people would spend over $50 though.
I think $10 to $30 is a secure For how much a normal graphic designer would charge for first blog header picture, Suppose. In the event that you should hire a freelancer graphic designer for a symbol, it is possible to get something from the $30 to $50 range, and that is considered really cheap.
A US based graphic design firm Would charge more or $800. Except for throwing you under the bus US people…
I guess I will get at least 2 Tasks done daily. So, 2 jobs x 20 (and this may be on the low end) is $40 per day, or $1200 per month.
So, yes…my calculations show that In the event you utilize Design Pickle enough, it's certainly worth the cost.
Another huge benefit is The ease of use. My designer is becoming used to my personality and therefore it quick to order jobs.
That Would be it. If I went to Upwork, I would have to explain the job in detail, wade through candidates, expect they know my brand, etc.. It would be a time consuming than simply using Design Pickle.
I think it's also worth Mentioning that design pickle has access to stock images or other inventory images that they can utilize. What this signifies is that you don't need to pay for or provide any stock pictures.
For example, let's say I wanted a Professional picture with text layover of a couple sitting on a seat. I would tell them to add these specific words and to go find a stock image of a happy couple.
I really don't pay for the stock photo, Design Pickle already has it.
I have been using, as Previously Mentioned Design Pickle currently for about a year. Throughout this time, I've had them create graphics for several of my businesses. I'd like to provide a few examples below.
I've used Design Pickle to create a couple logos for me. For instance, below is the logo for the new AMZ Image plugin, thanks to Design Pickle.
Item Design and Graphics
I've used Design Pickle a number Of occasions to take my uncooked Amazon product images and make them look fine. This might be added images and descriptions to callout attributes. Or it may be to improve the photographs in some manner.
You can also use Design Pickle to Do ebook covers, software boxes and more.
Facebook Ads
We use design pickle all the time To design nice looking Facebook ads. Designers Unlimited
Printables with Graphics
Yes, this Is for my Mom blog. The options are endless with printables. If you can dream it up, Design Pickle can help design it.
Blog Header Pictures
The professional services are used by me at Design Pickle all the time for blog header pictures. This is a good way to spruce up a post to make it look professional, which in turn helps readers stick around. And most of us know that time on site can actually help your site rank in Google. Does Design Pickle help your website rank better in Google?
PowerPoint or Google Slide Presentations
I have used their support Make my presentations look professional.
Revenue PDFs, Videos, and more
I've used a ton of images within my Revenue movies and PDFs. If you wished to write an ebook and sell it online, you can really boost the value of the PDF publication by having Design Pickle go through and make it look good for you.
I have done this a few times.
I had Design Pickle perform a Few merchandise designs for me. Physical product layouts, yep. Fundamentally, I'll have the concept of the product and they'll whip up a visual prototype for me personally that I can send to a manufacturer.
How to get the most out of Design Pickle
The designs that are Delivered are only as good as the short you submit.
And to save you As you can, you should produce a template for every type of image request that you want to submit.
Here are some things to Include in your short:
A detailed description of what you need
Links to illustrations for inspiration
Your target audience
Colour's to utilize, or not to utilize
Image sizes (you can request multiple sizes if you like)
Any other notes you think will help your designer
The more info you Include on your brief, the less likely you will need revisions. And that is a fantastic thing because your designer can be working on designs instead of fine-tuning present designs.
I also recommend submitting requests in batches. This means is gathering your requests and submitting them back to back.
Batching, in general, is a Productivity to enhance.
And even though I Didn't, sure, images would work out a bit more expensive. But the truth is they'll still be much better price and better quality than if I had been to purchase them from elsewhere.
Who's Design Pickle for?
If Your blog reaches a place and you're looking at ways to scale — Design Pickle is a great way to offload simple layout tasks.
This means you can claw back Some of your time and invest it.
You need to be Able to justify the price tag, like with any purchase. But you have to be able to submit enough layout asks for it to be rewarding.
And I'm getting requests Because my layout queue fills completed for under $10 each is — there's always something for my designer to work with. And if my layout queue was only half full, it'd still be worthwhile. Designers Unlimited
I bootstrapped the launch of Before it made more than sufficient cash to cover costs My website and did all of the design work. It's purely a case of waiting till the time was appropriate to get a service like this.
It's also worth noting that in case you can not communicate what You need in an email, Design Pickle probably isn't for you.
For example, they don't offer Logobranding and's and for good reason — all these are specialized services that are costly. They're able to do infographics since they to create but you'll need to supply data/stats and provide them.
I offset Design Pickle Services with several different services. By way of instance, I hire a designer on Fiverr for my trademarks known as Obus.
And for infographics, I Use PeoplePerHour because I can get content repurposed at the exact same time to a few formats.
The chances are much More than I could cover in this one blog article. For any job that you might be doing that may need design, you may use Design Pickle for that.
You Need to determine if Design Pickle is right for your company. Can you manage to invest $370 per month? Will using more specialist graphics help increase new value or your income by greater than the cost of the service.
The answer is definitely yes. Designers Unlimited
I highly recommend that you check out Design Pickle Right Here.


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Weather started out as nice with the sun out. Didn't even seem cold going to work. At outdoor recess, though, it was really cold. The sun disappeared. The weathermen said it was 52 degrees F. but I don't know where!
I didn't feel like messing around with the fencing tonight. Hubby is at a meeting so I decided to clean out some of the craft drawers. They needed it.
Then I thought I would begin the furniture from that kit. I decided on doing one thing at a time. At least that is what I say until I start another one. However, the small counter is first.
As you can see, I glued on the sides after a light sanding. They seemed to adhere well. I then placed them securely in the gluing jig. Honestly, I don't know how I ever managed without one of these jigs. They are so great. If you glue things, they are worth the money.
I thought that Friday evening, after our dinner out for date night, that I would be able to work on some village things. Not. Seems hubby's boss has invited us to his place for a dinner and small party for hubby's 77th birthday. There goes Friday and our date night.
And there is a dinner-dance for the firemen on Saturday night. There goes Saturday, too. LOL
So I might get some things done during the day on Saturday and Sunday.
I'm done for tonight. I'll add some pieces tomorrow. I'm going to paint these pieces instead of staining them.
Until then....

subset: commoncrawl


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The Difference Between Fallen Arches And Flat Feet
Fallen arches represent a condition that happens when the entire bottom of the foot contacts the ground when a person is standing. An ordinary foot presents an arch between the ball of the foot and the heel. Fallen arches are an acquired condition, but flat feet may be present from childhood, in the case where the arch never developed in the first place.
Fallen arches do not represent a form of concern in most cases, although fallen arches should always be checked by a doctor or podiatrist. In the case where fallen arches develop during adulthood leading to a flat and rigid foot, it tends to be more serious than flat feet present from childhood, and the feet and muscles and tendons in the lower legs can be more prone to premature foot fatigue, and may in some cases result in serious health problems.
If you cannot distinguish rigid fallen arches from the flexible variety, there is a test that is simple to perform: while standing on the toes, observe if the arch appears by looking in a mirror. If there is a slight arch, then you're probably got nothing to worry about.
Even some Olympic runners have fallen arches. But if your foot stays flat on the bottom, then you have rigid fallen arches. The first thing to do is to consult a podiatrist. Foot pain can be one of the symptoms that can assure you that you have this condition and that it needs to be corrected.
There are numerous causes of fallen arches, such as arthritis, foot injuries, fused bones in the foot, too much stress on the feet, or even extra bone growth. Pain in the feet is not the only symptom of fallen arches. There can also be pain in the knees, back and legs and some loss of mobility.
The most common treatment method for fallen arches is the use of orthotics, which are devices that are placed inside footwear to support the feet. However, severe cases of fallen arches demand some more advanced treatment techniques. You can also do some workouts to strengthen the tendons and muscles in the feet. This will not cure fallen arches, but it will help to prevent any further foot problems from being an issue.
It can also help to prevent foot fatigue, and the pain from fallen arches. The best technique for the permanent correction of fallen arches is foot surgery, since this is the only way that the arches can be properly corrected. Surgery has lasting results; however it is quite expensive and may not be effective in all cases.
The difference between fallen arches and flat feet is that arches have never been present in people with flat feet; the soles of their feet resting firmly on the ground, while those with fallen arches may have feet that appear normal when laying down or sitting. However, when they stand up, the arch collapses, as the foot bears the weight of the body.
Patients who have fallen arches are prone to overpronate, as their ankles roll inwards to an unusual extent when walking or running, leading to amplified occurrences of soft medial and knee injuries. Athletes who suffer from injuries caused by fallen arches may be able to get help with motion control footwear or stability athletic shoes.
People who suffer from flat feet are also prone to develop the injuries mentioned above. However, adults with flat feet have less chances than children to recover their arches, giving the fact that the tissues and muscles have stopped developing. There is no physical therapy or exercise regimen that can re generate the arch once it has fallen.


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Nonresponsiveness Due to iaStor Error Solved
Two days ago, my Media Center Extenders became extremely non-responsive when I tried to play recorded TV. Perhaps playing TV would have been impossible, but I did not wait that long before restarting the Media Center PC.
That restart failed, with the Windows logo staying on the screen indefinitely. Attempts to fix the boot process from the Windows boot menu proved useless as that diagnostic revealed no error. Running a similar diagnostic from the Windows 7 install DVD provided me with a boot issue to fix and Windows restarted, but was sluggish when accessing my recorded TV.
A diagnostic run on that drive revealed nothing.
A look in the Windows Event log revealed a series of the following errors that began several hours before the nonresponsiveness:
Source: iaStor
Event ID: 9
The device, DeviceIdeiaStor0, did not respond within the timeout period.
Some web searches revealed substantial frustration with this problem dating back to the introduction of Windows Vista, but also suggested that updating Intel's disk drivers might solve the problem. At least sometimes the problem is related to hard drives and LPM (link power management):
A change was made by Microsoft* in the Windows Vista setup process. The result of this change is that the Intel® Matrix Storage Manager LPM registry settings that were intended for mobile installations are added for desktop installations as well. These LPM registry settings are added for both the Intel® Matrix Storage Manager RAID driver on the Windows Vista installation disk, as well as for any drivers added during the installation process.
Various desktop Serial ATA devices such as hard drives and CD/DVD drives have been reported that do not comply with the Serial ATA LPM device specification and display erratic behavior when LPM is enabled.
Given that the hard drive in question was a new "green" drive. I suspect this may have been part of the problem. A new set of Intel drivers addresses the problem by disabling LPM. I installed these drivers (for the Intel Matrix Storage Manager (my system is RAID capable, although I do not use RAID)) and the problem has not recurred in the last 48 hours.


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Oferta dla przedsiębiorstw
Oferta dla klientów indywidualnych
As China's mobile payment market is getting continuous boost from the country's economic restructuring towards a consumption-and-Internet-driven growth, the premier event will be convening 200+ top professionals from across the value chain including MNOs, payment platforms, banks & non-bank payment card issuers, retailers, e-Commerce players, chip solution & smart card vendors, payment terminal vendors, security components & services providers, smartphone manufacturers, ICT solution suppliers, app & software developers, advisory firms and policymakers, etc.
Now at its 5th anniversary, the conference will highlight the emerging changes, challenges and trends in Chinese and global mobile payment industry and the implications for partnership opportunities as well as key drivers of the market growth going forward, with market players continuing to innovate in payment services, user-friendliness, payment security and business models.
Conference Spotlights
Identifying new trends, new changes and new innovations triggered by China's "Internet Plus" plan and the impact on the country's mobile payment market
Analyzing the payment and O2O ecosystem initiated by leading payment platforms on the back of growing recognition of mobile payments and the implications for future business models
Uncovering the outlook for the development of NFC payment in China and across the world and its existing and potential benefits to user experience, payment security and the profitability
Investigating the emerging challenges, problems and disruptions the mobile payment security is facing and the response strategy that minimizes the negative impact on user experience
Identifying banks' mobile payment service innovations starting with delivering brand new payment experience by integrating existing resources and new thinking as a response to shrinking market share
Assessing the innovative payment products presented by leading smartphone manufacturers and the impact on the whole mobile payments world
Unveiling the traditional retail industry's offline-to-online transformation by means of mobile payments and the implications for future operation, service and marketing strategies
Observing the move to set up a payment system by e-Commerce players for an O2O ecosystem that aims to convene merchants, consumers, app developers and service providers
Analyzing the new challenges and requirements to mobile payments from various aspects of our daily life such as shopping, public transit, hospitality, tourism and cross-border e-Commerce
Understanding how payment terminal and wearable devices adhere to the higher level of payment security and user-friendliness required by the further development of mobile payment
Previous Eminent Speaker Panel Includes:
Previous Sponsors
Previous Event Partners
The official website of
The 5th Mobile Payment China 2016
. Copyright © 2009-2011 IGVision, All Rights Reserved.
IGVision reserves the right to change the venue and content of the event should circumstances require
Contact us:Tel:+86 21 5161 5300 Fax:+86 21 5180 9518 E-mail:


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- Price$409,900
- Beds5
- Baths4
- Sq. Ft.4,400-4,599
- Acres0.58
23 Ridgewater Court, Fountain Inn SC, 29644 MLS® #1396559
Home in Ridge Water Fountain Inn SC
New Meritage home under construction in beautiful, gated Ridgewater Subdivision! The spacious Parkside plan offers space for a growing family! The spacious greatroom with stone, gas log fireplace opens to a gourmet kitchen. The kitchen has granite counter-tops, stainless appliances, pantry, and detailed cabinetry. The five bedrooms will offer a guest room on the main level. Upstairs, you'll find the master suite with a sitting room, large closet space, and a luxury bath. The guest rooms are also spacious and share two baths upstairs. The gated Ridgewater community has a pool, lake, clubhouse, and more! The energy efficient features include Low E glass, Energy Star appliances, CF/LED lighting, PEX plumbing, 14 SEER HVAC, and more. Offer should be written on Meritage Docs. Contact listing agent for details.
Essential Information
- Price$409,900
- Bedrooms5
- Bathrooms4.00
- Full Baths4
- Square Footage4,400-4,599
- Acres0.58
- TypeResidential
- Sub-TypeSingle Family-Detached
- StyleTraditional
- StatusActive
- AmenitiesGated Community, Lights, Pool, Water Access, Dock, Boat Ramp
- ParkingSide/Rear Entry, Attached Garage 2 Cars
- GaragesSide/Rear Entry, Attached Garage 2 Cars
- ExteriorBrick Veneer-Partial, Hardboard Siding, Stone
- Exterior FeaturesPatio, Porch-Front, Porch-Other, Tilt Out Windows, Vinyl/Aluminum Trim, Windows-Thermal
- Lot DescriptionLevel, Underground Utilities
- RoofArchitectural
- FoundationSlab
Listing Details
- Listing AgentMitzi Kirsch
- Listing OfficeCentury 21 Blackwell & Co
Community Information
- Address23 Ridgewater Court
- SubdivisionRidge Water
- CityFountain Inn
- CountyGreenville
- StateSC
- Zip Code29644
- InteriorCarpet, Ceramic Tile, Hardwood, Vinyl
- Interior Features2 Story Foyer, Attic Stairs Disappearing, Ceiling 9ft+, Ceiling Fan, Ceiling Smooth, Ceiling Trey, Countertops Granite, Open Floor Plan, Smoke Detector, Tub Garden, Walk In Closet, Wet Bar, Countertops-Other
- AppliancesCook Top-Gas, Dishwasher, Disposal, Oven-Electric, Double Oven, Microwave-Built In
- HeatingElectric, Forced Air, Multi-Units
- CoolingCentral Forced, Electric, Multi-Units
- FireplaceYes
- # of Fireplaces1
- FireplacesGas Logs
- StoriesTwo
School Information
- ElementaryBryson
- MiddleRalph Chandler
- HighWoodmont
Listings provided courtesy of the Greater Greenville Association of REALTORS®, Copyright 2020.
IDX information is provided exclusively for consumers' personal, non-commercial use and may not be used for any purpose other than to identify prospective properties consumers may be interested in purchasing.
Listing information last updated on January 23rd, 2020 at 5:46pm EST.


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White Angel Wings & HaloProduct # LE2065WH
Product Includes
- Wings
- Halo
Purchase Product
Product Description
Give your angel costume a heavenly touch with this wing and halo set! The soft realistic feathers are worn around your shoulders with a comfortable white elastic band. They measure 21" tall and 19" wide. The marabou halo floats over your head and is attached to a white headband with flexible thin wires. Be sure to also check out our harp accessories for a complete angelic look!
Attention Customer
This product has restrictions that limit the countries that we can ship to. This product cannot be shipped to Australia


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Signature Events Start Here.
Connect with us at one of our signature events.
The Center's 14th annual Simply diVine returns to iconic Hollywood Forever on Saturday, April 27, from 6–9 p.m. Guests of the premier food and wine event for LGBT people and their allies will sample extraordinary food and drinks from L.A.'s most popular restaurants, wineries, distilleries, breweries, and more. Click here for more information.
Hosted at the historic Greek Theatre, the Center's 50th Anniversary Gala & Concert starts with a gala for 1,000 VIP guests followed by a not-to-be-missed live concert for 5,000 guests. Click here for more information.
Don't miss a moment of the Center's 50th anniversary year! Throughout 2019 the Center's signature events and other community-focused occasions will hallmark the organization's half-century milestone. Click here for information.
For event information: firstname.lastname@example.com
For sponsorship information: email@example.com


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Just short of nine years after its 11 December 2009 first flight, the A400M has completed 10,000 hours of development flight testing. More than planned, but critical to developing the extraordinary combination of tactical and strategic capabilities that will see it define military transport for decades to come.
Not only has it been exhaustively tested to satisfy the demands of its eight launch nations, but in a world-first it was simultaneously certified as a civil aircraft.
#A400M completes 10,000 flight test hours.— Airbus Defence (@AirbusDefence) November 6, 2018
See how the team developed key capabilities like rough-field landings, self-defence flares, air-to-air refuelling & paratrooping...
read the full story: https://t.co/0r03Rk7iYV pic.twitter.com/GPOJeuMIBE
Head of A400M flight test Eric Isorce, and Head of Military Aircraft Fernando Alonso, who was Head of Airbus Flight Operations at the time of the maiden flight, discuss the challenges of qualifying and certifying Airbus' first large military transport.
These tests confirmed the A400M's ability to take off and land on sand, grass and gravel runways or strips; they successfully airdropped multiple containers typically used in military and humanitarian operations; deployed paratroopers through fuselage side doors and from the rear cargo ramp; and simultaneously refuel two fighters or a large receiver aircraft such as another A400M.
For the in-flight refueling duties, testing also validated the ability to refuel six F-18 fighters during a typical deployment mission, transferring a total of 11.4 tonnes of fuel.


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Nearly every winning stock is overvalued at some point; riding out the rough times takes discipline.
Mobileye deal shows the semiconductor company is back in the game.
With semiconductor stocks, you must get them while they're hot.
Down in the comments section, there was some chatter about autonomous driving. From my perspective, there are a number of tailwinds behind this, and the implications that will cut across industries are likely to be staggering. Before we get there, ...
Industrials try to fit through narrow openings.
Almost by stealth, this company dominates the future.
Worries are increasing around the industry, though Visteon remains a stock to watch.
In addition to the tech giants' results and guidance, it's worth keeping an eye on the performance of certain business units, as well as commentary on key trends.
As the Trump rally gets dinged, I have started to accumulate a new position.
Intel's $15.3 billion purchase of Mobileye could just be the beginning
Wall Street rises in anticipation of an interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve later in the day.
Anyone who can get a piece of this market is going to do incredibly well.
TheStreet's Action Alerts PLUS Portfolio Manager Jim Cramer discusses Monday's most talked about stocks.
Wall Street ends mixed with stocks given little reason to pull in any one direction until the Federal Reserve makes its announcement Wednesday.
TheStreet's Action Alerts PLUS Portfolio Manager Jim Cramer said Intel's acquisition of Mobileye makes a huge amount of sense.
Intel agrees to buy Israeli technology company Mobileye for $15.3 billion.
The Federal Reserve begins a 2 day meeting this week, where most expect it will raise interest rates.
This portfolio of stocks is early out the starting gate on the drive to autonomous vehicles.
During an interview, a Mobileye executive discusses his company's autonomous driving alliances and what makes its processors and software unique.
Self-driving cars are quickly becoming the future of the auto industry.
Automakers used to spending billions on R&D want to develop their own self-driving systems. Tech giants will have to work hard to convince them to change their minds.
The market is expecting another in a series of big moves from Alarm.com Holdings.


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Alison Burgos & Michelle Gaber
Co-Founders and Co-Owners, Seed Food and Wine Festival
Alison Burgos and wife Michelle Gaber got the idea for their business while attending the South Beach Wine & Food Festival and realizing the food there did not fit in with their conscious, sustainable, plant-based lifestyle. Today, the Seed Food and Wine Festival is a huge hit, though Burgos and Gaber weren′t always the experts they are today. "When we started to create the festival, we were the first to admit we were just ′baby vegans.′ We didn′t know everything there was to know about plant-based living, sustainability, animal welfare or building a food and wine festival with so many moving parts," says Burgos. "So we reached out to local and national experts who we admired and asked them for their advice and, in many cases, also invited them to sit on our advisory committee. I don′t think our first year would have been a success without all of these mentors who we now call friends guiding us, teaching us and challenging us." She believes that if you want to start a business you need to "surround yourself with like-minded people you can learn from, as well as teach and share ideas with" and that you have to "believe in your dream even if it scares you, because if you′re not scared, it′s probably too late."


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Accession Number : ADA391588
Title : The Archaeology and Paleoecology of the Aubrey Clovis Site (41DN479) Denton County, Texas
Descriptive Note : Final rept. 1989-1999
Corporate Author : UNIVERSITY OF NORTH TEXAS DENTON CENTER FOR ENVIRONMENTAL ARCHAEOLOGY
Personal Author(s) : Ferring, C R
Full Text : https://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a391588.pdf
Report Date : Jan 2001
Pagination or Media Count : 287
Abstract : This report describes interdisciplinary investigations at the Aubrey Clovis Site. Dated to 11,550 BP, it is the oldest Clovis site in North America. It contains a rich record of past environments and Clovis activities. A record of dynamic changes in environment, coupled an apparently broad, flexible tecno-economic adaptive strategy by the Clovis folk, resulted in a rare and detailed illustration of Late Pleistocene lifeways.
Descriptors : *ARCHEOLOGY , *PALEONTOLOGY , ARTIFACTS , TEXAS , GEOLOGIC AGE DETERMINATION , RADIOCARBON DATING
Subject Categories : Humanities and History
Geology, Geochemistry and Mineralogy
Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE


text: Composer: Marion BauerPrint Edition Price: pdf only availablePDF-Download File OptionsLicense and download digital files Title: [BauerM] Dance Sonata - CFE manuscript score Price: $6.50 Year Authored (or revised): 1932Scoring: pianoDuration (min): 15Recording: Virginia Eskin, piano"Performed at several concerts during the course of Bauer's lifetime, including a WPA Federal Music Project concert in 1936 in New York and a program devoted to her music held at New York's Town Hall in 1951, this three-movement work is Bauer at her best. The first movement, Allegro appasionata, develops its striking opening theme through a lushly impassioned harmonic landscape; the more restrained second movement, Sarabande and Variations, projects a quiet dignity and overarching sense of precise compositional control; and the evocative third movement, Scherzo—Allegretto giocoso, is alternately humorous and poignant, propelled by Bauer's vivid rhythmic imagination." Composers Facsimile Edition manuscriptEnsemble Type: solo keyboard Place a print order or inquire about this work


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See You In My Dreams
Last night I went to see See You In My Dreams, a small, sweet movie about widowhood. I left the theater thinking it could have been so much more. Then it snuck up on me. It wasn't so much about widowhood as it was about loneliness and the decisions, good and not so good, widows make to avoid being alone.
You work at looking busy. You work at looking happy. You work on seeming "fine."
I remember those days, and both the good and bad decisions. Dating too soon. Spending too much. Giving away both precious time and money. I'd never want to go through the loss again; but, I'd love to have another go at making better, more conscious decisions.


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Goldman Sachs Group is one of the latest firms to hop onto the "360-degree" feedback bandwagon.
Joining the likes of Accenture, Adobe Systems and Microsoft, the investment bank will no longer rate staff on a scale of one to nine in employee reviews.
Starting next month, the firm will appraise its staff via an online system which allows professionals to give and receive continuous feedback on their performance.
"Last year's people survey results show that you want more real-time feedback to support your ongoing development and that such feedback is critical to your experience and tenure at the firm," chief operating officer Gary Cohn told the bank's employees via a video about the changes.
Cohn and CEO Lloyd Blankfein also announced the changes in a memo to staff last week.
"Over the course of the next year, we will adopt new feedback practices to focus further on growth and development," chief executive officer Lloyd Blankfein and President Gary Cohn wrote in the memo, which was sent to employees last Wednesday.
"Providing high-quality and ongoing feedback is at the heart of our culture, and is an important investment we make in our people and the future of our firm."
A separate memo from head of human capital management, Edith Cooper, described the changes in more detail.
The new system will be rolled out in June, and will emphasise on qualitative feedback – what people do well and how they can improve – rather than numerical scores.
In addition to a written summary, managers will provide an overall rating on a scale of outstanding, good and needs improvement to vice presidents, associates, analysts and administrative assistants.
To incorporate the new system, the company had urged managers to carry out review conversations with their team over the summer rather than in the fall, giving employees additional time to improve their performance ahead of bonus decisions and annual cuts.
ALSO READ: After Accenture, IBM ditches traditional annual performance reviews
In addition, Goldman will try out a web-based tool for some employees to give and receive performance feedback at any time.
The hope is that the additional inputs will lead to more frequent one-on-one conversations with employees and managers, she said. The bank hasn't determined which departments will try out the system.
Cooper said performance reviews play a role in determining employee bonuses and promotions at Goldman, and will continue to do so. She declined to say how much weight those evaluations carry.
Along with J.P. Morgan Chase and Citigroup, Goldman has enacted several management changes focused on retaining junior bankers.
It is believed that new appraisal system is part of effort in retaining the Millennials who are looking for lots of attention from leaders and managers who will spend time with them and help them develop.
Last fall, it announced an initiative to fast-track junior bankers as well as provide them with more mobility and lessen their workloads with the increased use of technology.
Colleagues at Goldman frequently have informal conversations about performance, said Elizabeth Reed, a vice president in the investment-banking division.
The new guidelines help set expectations for how often managers should be checking in with their staff members, she said, adding the new tool is a "medium to express that more regularly." she told the Wall Street Journal.
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"The Asia Recruitment Award is the oscars of the recruitment industry. A display of the best of the best!"
Start your entries preparation early.
Open to both in-house recruitment & talent acquisition teams and recruitment solution providers.


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The cost of a business trip for those in the UK and Ireland dropped by 7.2 per cent in the first quarter of 2015.
According to Carlson Wagonlit Travel (CWT) the average cost of a two-and-a-half day trip – including hotel, car hire and flight – was £428.26.
CWT's Quarterly Barometer showed average prices paid for hotel rooms fell 2 per cent, air tickets dropped 6.1 per cent, daily rates for car hire were down 3 per cent and rail fares were 1.8 per cent lower.
The report said UK business travellers were "getting more savvy" by shifting towards standard and economy hotel rooms, booking air tickets more than 14 days in advance and moving away from business class tickets.
Economy class air tickets made up 83 per cent of the market, up 1.6 per cent, while business class made up 14.3 per cent, down 7.3 per cent. Continental flights were the most common, making up 52.8 per cent of trips, followed by domestic flights (26.7 per cent) and inter-continental (20.5 per cent).
CWT said the drop in the UK average trip cost was mainly influenced by domestic travel, which made up 52.8 per cent of journeys.


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My latest column for Reuters has been published. I argue that the venture capital industry in the US will be forced to shrink as institutional investors pull back from all except the most successful funds:
Everyone believes they are investing in the children of Lake Wobegon, who are all above average. But institutional investors won't play the fool for long and the response from potential LPs is bound to get stonier for all but the most accomplished funds. So what, if anything, will save venture capital?
There will need to be fewer, smaller funds, making smaller bets with their investors' money. Fewer exits won't be such a problem, because fewer exits will be needed. It will be something that looks, in fact, a lot like the VC world pre-dotcom. That will be a wholly good thing, for venture capital, for investors and for entrepreneurs.
A smaller industry will have fewer hangers on who invest with the latest trend, and there will be less dumb money buoying poorly formed, unrealistic dreams.


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Rob at The Notorious R.O.B. (Rob works at OnBoard, a data aggregation company) wrote an excellent post about the damage that can be done to brokers and agents by using Trulia, Realtor.com, Zillow, and other third-party listing aggregation websites.
From Rob's post;
"[The] consumer then has a relationship (or at least an experience) with Trulia or whoever; it's how they found the house, and found the real estate agent…
…But the brokerage? Or the brand? Just like I couldn't remember the name of the contractor that did my windows, would any consumer remember RE/Max or Coldwell Banker or whatever?
Would said consumer, upon resurfacing seven years later (on average), remember the agent who took such good care of him the first time around? Or would he remember the really useful website where he found a house and someone to "install" the house for him?"
Instead of building the brand of these companies, build your own brand.
It's a great post and a good story, and it has a good message that every broker might want to think about.


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Posts filed under 'dating'
I've always wanted to be a princess. What girl doesn't? I was kidding around with N a few weeks ago and mentioned it. I'd had a rough time, and he was MIA for several days, but when things came together he called me Princess. It was out of the blue, and I really hadn't thought that he'd listened. I told him about the book The Five Love Languages. I've not read the entire book, but it is pretty neat. So basically I told him that my love language is words of affirmation, and we figured out that his is touch. So after that really bad week, and he called me Princess and told me that he missed me, I cried.
Today I've been listening to the Fly Show. There is a lot of talk about loving yourself. One thing that Leanne said that really stuck with me today, is that I am the daughter of a King!!!! I am a princess!!!! I am not in my castle yet, but my home awaits me. I will serve my King until it is time for me to go home. Why shouldn't I love myself as much as my King does? If I am worthy of being loved by my King, why can't I love myself? I'm not saying I hate myself, but sometimes I just really need that extra hug, or pick me up.
Now I just need to find ways to love myself. I'm a princess, so who doesn't love being a princess. Maybe I should make my own tiara so that I can pretend while I'm at home. I think that I'm mostly worried now about if other's love me. If I don't change my "stinkin thinkin" I will never be able to show my kids how to love themselves.
Mission: I'm going to remember to do something special for me every single day! I will put a sticker, or something to mark it on my calendar and report back here about my progress.
It is one week later, and I've already gotten 4 phone calls from the same guy this morning. The decision not to chase, and sticking with it may have paid off. I'm sure he'll read this now, and think I'm crazy, but I'm not sure that I care. If you do read this, please don't be offended.
A little history about this guy and myself. We met a few months back online, and talked on yahoo a time or two. I got the impression that he wasn't interested in the slightest, and work was his main objective. He seemed mostly elusive. So I get an email from him a few days ago. I told him basically that I didn't think he was interested before, and why email me again. Not sure if he forgot about me or what. This time he has assured me that he is interested, and from the phone calls I think that may be true. I guess I was a bit elusive at first this time, because of past events, but I eventually had the time to return one of many missed calls yesterday afternoon. I'm glad that I did.
My warning of the day is not to rush into anything yet. He's out of town until the end of the month, so I do have some time to get to know him, and get my thoughts straight before a first date. I didn't sleep a lot last night, and apparently he can't sleep today. I'm trying not to read a lot into this yet, but he's a cutie, and very sweet and seems like a nice respectable man.
That's all for now, maybe I'll have an update later on.


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During the Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time press conference at WonderCon this weekend, it was evident that all major players delighted in each other's company and thoroughly enjoyed bringing the swashbuckling action adventure to life (especially Jake Gyllenhaal, who appears to have developed a fondness for stuntwork). During the course of the interviews, Jerry Bruckheimer (Producer), Mike Newell (Director), Jordan Mechner (Writer / Creator, POP Franchise) and Jake Gyllenhaal (Prince Dastan) all talked about the challenges and joys of bringing the popular gaming franchise to the big screen, and whether or not Prince of Persia will become a franchise.
In preparation for his role as Prince Dastan, Gyllanhaal revealed that he stepped outside his "normal" process for getting into character. "I've never done research playing video games. I've never played video games as research before. Sometimes I've read books, or I've hung out with Marines, but you know, playing video games is great fun." Gyllanhaal also related that he has been a fan of the game since it was first released in 1989, when sidescrolling play was a prominent feature.
"I played the original when I was a kid, and then I only started playing the game pretty intensely when we were doing research, particularly for stunts. I'd be in the middle of shooting and I'd see a move and then I'd call the stunt guys and say 'check out this move, can we try that?!' I continue to play it to this day."
Although the gaming franchise provided a jumping off point (literally) for the live-action flick, Newell was quick to point out that they weren't interested in retelling and rehashing what has already been visualized in the game, or elsewhere in movie lore.
"What we wanted to do was based on a storyline, but we wanted to make it emotionally real," Newell explains. "We did a huge amount of work at the script stage and at the rehearsal stage to make it absolutely real. Even the fights have an emotional reality. The big pressure was to take it to an area where a game couldn't go, while not destroying the game side of it. I believe that we went very carefully back to 6th Century Persia. We looked at the style, we looked at the behavior, how cities were made and so on, and I hope that we were faithful to it and didn't come in and jump all over it without a certain sensitivity."
Continue Reading →


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Perfect for a narrow lot, Eagle Springs offers an open floor plan, rear and front porches and three private suites.
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If a plan has the layout you have been looking for but you would like some changes, we can customize a plan to meet your needs. Learn more.


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Welcome to the TMJ Pain Clinic UK
Your online resource for treatment, advice and support for people suffering with Temporomandibular Joint Disorder and Pain Syndromes.
The World Health Organisation estimates that 1 in 4 people suffer with TMJ. However many people have this condition without knowing it. Symptoms are wide and varied. Sufferers often struggle with receiving a definitive diagnosis. Some suffer for many years without hope. Medical intervention is often expensive and invasive with low success rates.
Tracey Kiernan is a qualified Dental Nurse turned degree level Clinical Massage therapist and teacher. In 2000 with the encouragement of her dentist she developed a powerful proven protocol for the treatment of TMJ.
Over the last 16 years Tracey's TMJ Therapy has been taught to hundreds of practitioners across the UK and Ireland who are getting people out of pain and restriction in 1-6 treatments. This website is aimed at helping TMJ suffered everywhere to find advice, support, and treatment for this debilitating condition.
We now have a Find a Therapist page to help you find a TMJ Therapy practitioner trained in Tracey's protocol near you.
Please note the register is being updated on a regular basis. Please check back often, or call Tracey for more help and advice.
Contact Tracey on 0773 969 4056 or email on firstname.lastname@example.com to arrange a consultation or book an appointment.
Please check out our facebook page for more advice, interesting articles and support here.
If you are a therapist interested in training with Tracey please visit her school Blend Therapy Training. We offer a wide range of courses in the treatment of pain. Advanced sports and clinical massage, fascial release and Hot Stone courses are available. We have locations in Liverpool and Wigan. We run courses in other locations where there is a demand. Just call Tracey to discuss.


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Korean automaker Kia Motors is reportedly planning to launch a hatchback and a mid-size sedan for the Indian markets. The expected offering by the company will challenge the dominance established by Maruti Suzuki and Hyundai in the auto market here, says a report by the Livemint. The two cars are in pipeline and will be launched one year after Kia Motors launches the SUV based on its SP concept, its first product in India, according to the report.
Kia Motors has received approval for its development plans from its headquarters in South Korea and discussed the same with its vendors in India, the report said while quoting sources privy to the information. Kia Motors is reportedly planning to launch the SP Concept-based SUV in India sometime around Diwali next year, which puts the probable launch date of its upcoming hatchback and mid-size sedan - codenamed K1 and K2 - around the festive season in 2020.
"The hatchback that Kia is planning to bring into the Indian market will compete directly with Hyundai Elite i20 and Maruti Suzuki Baleno. This (strategy) makes sense since these are the segments that are doing well and will continue to attract customers in the future as well," the report quoted a source.
"In the midsize sedan segment also, the company will throw a challenge to the Maruti Suzuki Ciaz facelift and Hyundai Verna as the quality of the products will be good and the management of Kia both in India and Korea know the India market well enough," the report further added.
Kia Motors has not confirmed the reports of any such launches yet. However, the Korean carmaker is set to open its manufacturing facility in Anantpur district of Andhra Pradesh in 2019 with an initial production capacity of 300,000 units per year.
The entire portfolio of Kia Motors was showcased at the Auto Expo earlier this year, along with the SP Concept for SUV. Coming to India, Kia Motors will have to focus on hatchback, mid-size sedan and compact SUV segments where bulk of the demand comes from. Apart from vehicles falling in these categories, Kia also has a range of luxury sedans, MPV, hybrid cars and commercial vehicles in its portfolio.


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A worker onboard a Bass Strait passenger ferry has died, sparking a police investigation.
The man died on Monday morning after the Spirit of Tasmania made it to Devonport and acting Inspector Tony Stewart said that while detectives will investigate, the death is not considered suspicious.
"As a result of this incident, the day sailing to Melbourne was delayed approximately two hours," Insp Stewart said.


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La lecture à portée de main
Notre catalogue
Álvaro [alvaroe] Escribano, Santiago Mira
Working Paper 96-54 Departamento de Estadística y Econometría Statistics and Econometrics Series 23 Universidad Carlos III de Madrid July 1996 Calle Madrid, 126 28903 Getafe (Spain) Fax (341) 624-9849 NONLINEAR COINTEGRATION AND NONLINEAR ERROR CORRECTION. Alvaro Escribano and Santiago Mira· Abstract
The relationships between stochastic trending variables given by the concepts of cointegration and
error correction (EC) are well characterized in a linear context, but the extension to a nonlinear
context is still a challenge. Few extensions of the linear framework were developed in the context
of linear cointegration but nonlinear error correction (NEC) models, and even in this context,
there are still many open questions. The theoretical framework is not well developed at this
moment and only particular cases have been discussed empirically. In this paper we propose a
statistical framework that allow us to address those issues. First, we generalize the notion of
integration to the nonlinear case. As a result a generalization of cointegration is feasible, and also
a formal definition of NEC models. Within this framework we analyze the nonlinear least squares
(NLS) estimation of nonlinear cointegration relations and the extension of the two-step estimation
procedures od Engle and Granger (1987) for NEC models. Finally, we discuss a generalization
of Granger Representation Theorem to the nonlinear case and discuss the properties of the one
step (NLS) procedure to estimate NEC models.
Nonlinear cointegration; nonlinear error correction; mixing; near epoch dependence; long
memory; granger representatíon theorem.
-Escribano and Mira, Department of Statistics and Econometrics, Universidad Carlos III de
Madrid; We gratefully acknowledge the cornments of C.W.J. Granger, M.R. Pesaran, and J.
Romo. ~~ --~-----~------------------r-------------------------..
". Introduction 1 Granger (1981) introduced the concept of cointegration but it was not until Engle and (1987) and Johansen (1988) that this concept got an inmense popularity among econometricians and applied economists. The great impact those papers had in the profession was due to the fact that they showed, how to empirically work with economic variables that have unit roots to avoid the problem of spurious regressions. Furthermore, most of the modelling, estimation and inference procedures change dramatically from the classical statistical frameworks when dealing with variables that have unit roots and are cointegrated, see Phillips (1991). That forced a large part of the profession to work within this framework. It is clear how to deal with integrated and cointegrated data within a linear context, but almost no research has been dedicated to the simultaneous consideration of nonstationarity, 1(1), and nonlinearity, even though many macroeconomist agree with the fact that those are realistic and dominant properties of economic data. How can it be possible that almost no research have been dedicated to this topic? The answer is clear, it is difficult to work with nonlinear time series models in a stationary and ergodic framework and even more difficult in a nonstationary contexto Nevertheless there are already empirical examples of non linear error correction models with linear cointegration and with nonlinear cointegration. See Hendry and Ericsson (1991) and Granger and Swanson (1995) for sorne examples. An introduction to the state of the art in econometrics relating nonlinearity and nonstationarity can be found in a recent papel' by Granger (1995). There he discusses the concepts of long-range dependence and extended memory which generalize the linear concept of integration, I( 1), to a nonlinear framework. The main disadvantages of those definitions are that there are no Laws of Large Numbers, nor Central Limit Theorems associated to them and therefore there are no easy ways to obtain estimation and inference results. This paper starts filling this mayor gap. structure of the papel' is the following. In section 2, \Ve propose a definition of nonlinThe eal' integration, NI(l), which also allows us to define the concept of nonlinear cointegration. Section 3 deals with the estimation of cointegrating relationships, and presents sorne Monte Carlo results. Section 4 studies the problem of the two-step estimation procedure in the context of nonlinear error correction models and presents sorne Monte Carlo results. Section 5 analyzes an extension via the near epoch dependence (NED) concepto Finally, in section 6 we present the main conclusions. 1 ..
2 Cointegration and Error Corretion: The Non Linear Case As we have discussed previously if we do not assume that the series follow ARMA models, then the classical definitions of stochastic trends and extended memory are not appropiate. Granger and Terasvista (1993) and Granger (1995) propose a natural generalization of the concepts to the nonlinear case as foHows. Let us take Fh(X) = P(Xt+h S xl1t) which provides the conditional distribution of Xt+h glven the information set lt = {Xt-j : j ~ O}. It will be said that the series is "short memory in distribution" (SMD) if limFh(x) = F(x)h i.e. the conditional distribution does not depends on lt. Therefore, for aH subsets Gl! G E lt such that P(Xt-j E G ) =/:- O. Vle will consider that the concept of 2 2ll1ixing encapsulates the concept of S?\ID. Since ¡p-mixing implies o:-mixing we will cOl1sider the concept of o:-mixing. Definition 2.0 (o:-l\lixing) Let {vd a sequen ce of random variables. Let F! = 0"(V , ••• , Vt) s and define the o:-mixing coefficients as O:m == sup sup IP(G n F) - P(G)P(F)I . t FEF:'oo,GEF+t m It will be said that the sequence {Vt} is o:-mixing (or strol1g mixing) if and only if O'm -+ O as 17Z -+ oo. The coefficient O:m measures the dependence between events that depend on Vt 's separeted by at least m time periods. The o:-mixing property allo\v simultaneously temporal dependence and heterogeneity in the process. If O'm = O(m'\) for all A < -<Po, then it will be said that O:m is of size -'Po. Since the concept of o:-mixing is based on the O"-algebras generated by the sequence of variables, then the concept is invadant under Borel measurable transformations of a finite number of those variables. See, for instance, \Vhite (1984). 2.1 Non Linear Cointegration U nder general conditions there exists a LLN, as the following theorem states. 2 '11_-------- 1------........... -----Theorem 2.1 (McLeish) Let {vd a scalar a-mixing sequence with a of size r/(r - 1), m r> 1, and with finite means E(vt) =¡tt. If for sorne 6, O< 6 :::; r, we have Proof: See Theorem 3.47 of White (1984). The condition of Theorem 2.1 is essentially a condition of existence of moments of order (r+6). See vVhite (1984). Also under general condítions there exists a FCLT which gives the convergence of partíal sums of the a-mixing sequences, as establishes the following theorem. Theorem 2.2 (Herrndorf) Let {v } be a sequence of random variables and define ST = s2:f=l Vt, and lIT(r) = 2:~~;1 Vt, \vhere [T1*1 is the greater integrer smaller than Tr. Then under assumptions (i) E(Vt) = O, for aH t; (ii) SUPt E(lvtl¡3) < 00, for sorne fJ > 2; 2 1 2(iii) u = limT--+oo E(T- (ST)2), verifies that O< u < 00; and (iv) {Vt} is a-mixing with a-mixing coefficients a satisfaying m 00 2l"" a /i3 < oo'L.J m ,t;:::l 21we have that T- / 11TO ~ O"t,V(·), as T -¡. 00, where t'VO is the SBM in [0,1]. O Proof: See Herrndorf (1984). Condition (ii) controls the existence of moments. Condition (iv) controls the temporal dependen ce of the process. Since fJ is the same in (ii) and (iv) there exists a trade off between both, see Phillips (1987). Condition (iii) avoids cases such as the foHowing. Let Vt a Gaussian random walk such that ÓVt (ÓVt == (1 - L)Vt == Vt - Vt-d is a non-invertible :MA(l). In that case ÓVt and Vt are a-mixing sequences, but Vt does not satisfy (iii). The following definition of strong nonlinear I( 1) (SNI( 1)) takes this case into account. Defillitioll 2.3 (SNI(O) y SNI(I)) A sequen ce {Vt} is strongly non linear 1(0), SNI(O), if it is a-mixing hut the sequence {yd given by Yt = 2:!;:::1 Vt, is not a-mixing. \Ve will say that Yt is SNI(l). 3 Note that if Yt is SNI(1) then LlYt is SNI(O). An important property of the aboye definition is that the o:-mixing condition can be tested. There exists sorne papers that deal with this problem. Sorne of the more important are Lo (1991), Kwiatowski, Phillips, Schmidt and Shin (1992) (KPSS), and Stock (1994). In what follows we will consider only sequen ces without deterministic components, i.e., Xt = Xt - Jlh where Jlt is the mean of Xt, such that E(xt) = O. Note that the aboye definition of SNI(O) the size of the sequence is not specified. It will be understood that a vector X :=: [XIt, ...,Xnt]' (n x 1) is SNI(l) (SNI(O)) if each component Xit is SNI(l) (SNI(O)). t Definition 2.4 (Non-Linear Cointegration) Let {yt} and {xtl two SNI(l) sequences. \Ve will say that Yt and Xt are strongly non linear cointegrated (SNCI) with cointegration functíon g(',-,,;), if g(Yt,Xt"n is o:-mixing and g(Yt,Xt,,¡) is not o:-mixing for,1 -¡: ,;. Sorne comments are appropiate. First, note that we define g(yt, Xt"d as "not o:-mixing" for '1 -¡: ,;, but \Ve do not specify if g(Yt, Xt"r) is SNI(l). That definition would be inaccurate in the linear case because in that case g(Yt, Xt,,1) could be 1(-1). In this case, however, if g(yt, Xtl,d is not o:-mixing, then the dependence has to be stronger, and not weaker. Second, note that the restriction imposed by the o:-mixing condition on the sequence {gt} = {g(Yt, Zt, ,i)} implies the existence of restrictions on the mean of {gt}, but also on every other moment of the sequence. Third, note that the cointegration functíon is not unique since any measurable function of an O:-l11ixing sequence is o:-mixing. Therefore we will consider the functions f :~2 -t ~ divided into equivalence classes such that two functions ft y 12 are in the same class if there exists a functíon 9 : ~ -t ~ such that f¡ = 9 012. The study will be restricted to one function of each class. Fourth, note that with this definition new linear cointegration re1ations appear that were not allo\\'ed within the classÍcal cointegration definition, because the dynamics of the variables are not necessarily represented as ARIVlA models. Finally, we suppose that the cointegration functions are measurable functions wíth respect to the appropíate O"-field. Sorne extra conditions are implicitly impossed on the cointegration relation in order to avoid non-sense cointegration. The following examples specify the relations that are not considered as cointegration relations. (1) g(Yt,Xt"d = h(Yt,,¡), Le., in fact it is a function of only one variable; (2) 9 is such that for any two variables Yt, Xt of sorne fal11ily of SNI(l) variables, g(Yh xt"n it is always o:-mixing, Le. 9 gives always cointegration. The second example tries to avoid "too restrictive" functions. Granger and Ha1ll11an (1991) give the following case. If Xt is a Gaussian random walk, then sin(xt) has properties of "short memory". Functions such as g(Yt, xt"d = cos(Yt +'1 Xt), or g(Yt, Xtl,d = sin('1 (YtXt)), are therefore "too restrictive" if they always produce cointegration. Consider the following example. Let Xt and Yt be scalar variables such that Xt :=: ¿:~=l es and 4 -"1 I I Yt = E!=I1]s, where é and 1]11 are a-mixing variables which verify a LLN, and converge in s probability to non null values ex and e respectively. If \Ve take the ratio y t t ft = (xt/Yt) = (2: é )/(2: 1]s) [2.1] ss=l 8=1 then Jt converges to ex/evo The sequence ft converges in probabilidad to some constant then, under certain conditions, it is a-mixing. Notice that even if the limit of the sequence is a constant it does not imply that the sequence is a-mixing as the following example illustrates. Let {rt} be a sequence given by rl rv U(-l, 1) and rt rv U(-rt_l,O) if rt-l is positive and rt rv U(O, -rt_¡) if rt-l is negative. The sequen ce systematically changes the signo Take the outcomes H = {r2 > O} and G = {r2(t+m) < a} then P(H) = ~ = P(G) and P(H n G) = O. Therefore for every t and then, although the sequence {r¡} converges in probability to O it is not a-mixing. Note that hardly a ratio as [2.1] presents a behaviour as systematic as that in rt, specially if ét and 1]t are " good enough". It ís of interest to consider the "stability" of the definition SNI(O) fol' instantaneous transformations. This is due to the fact that the a-mixing property is preserved for such transfomations. The following Lernrna forrnalizes the resulto Lemma 2.6 Let llS suppose four SNI(l) series given by {vd, ül't}, {:r¡}, and {xd, which are related Yt = fy(Vt), and Xt = fAXt) for invertible transformations fy(') and Jx(')' If there exists a cointegrating fUl1ction 9R(',') for the Xt and Vt series then exists a cointegrating fundíon 9T(-,') for the fx(xt) and fy(Yt) series. Com'ersely, if there a 9T(., ' ) fol' the transforrned series Yt and xt, then there exists a cointegrating fundíon 9Rh·) for the series Yt and Xt. O Proof: See Appendix A. The invertibility condition of fx and fy is not necessary if we impose other restridions. For instance if we kno\V that Xt > athen we rnay consider that x; = Xt is invertible. FinalIy, we present so me possible generalizations of the definitions given aboye. An extension of the idea of nonlinear integration can include the notion of the nonlinear trend. For exarnple \Ve can say that the Xt series has a Non-linear Trend (NT) if Xt = Fx(Tt) for some Tt series which is SNI( 1) and Fx(') is in sorne subset of the set of functions F : ~ -+ ~ (which \':¡e will not specify). Therefore, \Ve will say that two NT series Xt and Yt have a nonlinear co-trend (NCT) if there exists a funtion C (-, ',1) such that Cxy(Xt'Yhl) is a-mixing xy 5 for 1 = 1* and it is not for 1 =/: 1*' Consider the following example. Let Wt be an SNI(l) series and let us take Yt - exp(-1;Wt + 'Ut) Xt = Wt +Vt where et is an a-mixing sequence. Then F(Xt, Yt) = Yt exp(liXt) is a NCT relation. Different appoximations to these issues can be found in Escribano (1986 and 1987) and Gl'anger (1988). 2.2 N on Linear Error Correction Mechanism A non linear error col'l'ection (NEC) mechanism fol' the (n x 1) X vector is an autoregressive t lineal model for the differences .ó.X plus a nonlinear term fol' the lag of the levels Xt-l' If t we take the case n = 2 and X = [Xt, yd', the NEC with only one lag is .ó.X = \jj*.ó.Xt_l + t t F(X - r*) +ét, whose first equation can be wrÍtten in the form t b X.ó.Xt 7/';l.ó. t-l +7/'~2.ó.Yt-l + f( Xt-l 1 Yt-l, 1*) +élt ~~l.ó.Xt-l + 7/';2.ó.Yt-l + f(g(Xt-hYt-lll;),I;) +élt [2.2] where .ó.Yt and .ó.Xt are a-mixing, and the pal'ametel' 1* may be split into 1* = bi', 12']" The subvector li is the cointegl'ation vector and the subvector 12 is the vector of parameters of the error corretion mechanism. Note the distinction made in [2.2] between the cointegration functíon g(Yt, .L¡, Ii) and the error correction functíon f(', 12)' The functíon g(',., li) = O gives the lung run equilibrium relationship and the devíations from thís equilibrium g(Yt-h Xt-I, 1;) are the errol's corrected hy the l110del. A nonlineal' error correction mechanism \vith only one lag is given by where H(Xt-d = H(X - , r) fol' sorne vector of parameters r. The following definition t 1 allO\.... us to give a necessary condition on the NEC formulation. q P Definition 2.7 Given a funtion F : 3t -t 3t such that F(X) = y for vectol's X = [Xl, ..., X ] pand Y = [YI, ..., Yq], \Ve will say that F is pal'tially invertible if there exists at least one i E {l, ...,p} and one gi : 3{q -t 3{ such that Xi = gi(Y)' 6 The function H(.) is not necessarily a transformation of a finite number of other cointegrating relations, i.e. not H(X - ) = J(P(X - )) for other cointegration function t 1 t 1P(·). See Mira (1996) for a longer discussion. As a consequence we do not have a generalization of the Granger Representatíon Theorem given in Engle and Granger (1987) (in the sense that the existente of cointegration implies an error correction representation where the error correction is a function of the base of the space of cointegration relations) nor the converse formulation given in Johansen (1991). Nevertheless we can give a necessary condition for the NEC representation which will be extended in the last section to a partíal generalization of the Granger Representation Theorem to the nonlinear case. Proposition 2.8 Let us suppose a model of nonlinear time series for the sequence of random vectors (n x 1) {Xt} given by where we have taken on1y two lags for símplicity. We have the following assumptions (1) ~Xt and ét are SNI(O); (2) the function F( X - , X - ) is non linear on1y in the first lag, i.e. 1 t 2t(3) the function H(Xt-d given by H(Xt-d = -(1 - <1>2)X - + G(Xt-d is not partíally t 1 inverti ble. Then: (i) undel' assumptions (1) and (2) we have the follo\Ying l'epresentation ~Xt = W 6.X - +H(Xt-d + ét [2.3] I t 1 where W1 -<1>2 and H(X ) : ~n ---+ ~n is given by H(Xt-d = -(1 - IP2)Xt-1 + tG(Xt-d; and (ii) the repl'esentation given in [2.3] is a NEC if and only if assumption (3) holds. O Proof: See Appendix A. Sorne remarks deserve to be mentioned. First, note that condition (2) is intuitively clear, because we do not expect that any nonlinear function of the lags can be transformed into an error correction model, even if there exists a cointegrating function. Second, note that the condition of not partially invertible discardes the case of an SNI(O) variable which 7 I ' enters into the cointegration relation. Third, note that in the linear case the proof of the representation theorern relies in the fact that A(l) is of rank r (the cointegration rank) and then it is not invertible; if that not were the case X - can be inverted and we obtain X as an t 1 t ARMA model, which would be a contradiction. See Mira (1996) for a detailled discussion. Fourth, note that the cointegration function depends on the AR representation for X as t can logically be expected. As a consequence not any cointegration function can appear in the error correction representation, only those related with the AR for the levels of Xt. Finally, note that we cannot fuUy characterize the fundíon H(·) to obtain a Representation Theorern. This question will be solved in Section 5. If the error correction function depends on say two lags X - and X - , an extension of t 1 t 2Proposition 2.8 can be given. Let us write X X t - G(Xt- 1,Xt- 2 ) + <P2 t-2 + ét D..X = G(Xt-l, X - ) - X - + <P X - +ét t t 2 t 1 2 t 2 = (-<P2)(X - - X - ) - (1 - <P )X - +G(X - X - ) + ét t 1 t 2 2 t 1 t t 2h 1l1 D..X - +H(X - X - ) + ét [2.5] 1 t 1 t h t 2where 111 = -<P and H(X - X - ) = -(1 - <P )X - + G(Xt-l, X - ). In this case the 1 2 t t 2 2 t 1 b t 2condition of not partíaUy invertible has to be impossed on the fundion H : ~2n _ ~n. An example of this type of rnodels is the Smooth Transition Regression function (STR) given in Granger y Terasvirta (1993), where the transition depends on sorne equilibriurn errors of the long range relationship specified by the cointegration relation. If we have X = [Yt, ztJ', t then the first equation of [2.5J may be written as D..Yt = {3l1'~·Yt-l + {312L:::..Zt-l Z+(ÓnD..Yt-l + Ó D..z _ )(1 +exp(-ll(Yt-1 12 t-l)) + Elt 12 t 1 In this case the dynamics of D..Yt is given as an autoregressive model with exogenous variables, whose parameters change depending on some equilibriurn errors of the long range relationshi p. 2.3 Linear Cointegration and Non Linear Error Correction It is of special interest the case where the error correction is non linear but the cointegration is linear. The rnodel is 8
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text:
By Fred Fleitz
As Kentucky senator and presidential candidate Rand Paul prepares to filibuster a House bill to extend a controversial NSA counterterrorism program, one of his prospective campaign opponents, New Jersey governor Chris Christie, slammed Paul this week (without naming him) in a major speech on national security.
Christie said in his typical blunt style:
"When Edward Snowden revealed our intelligence secrets to the world in 2013, civil-liberties extremists seized that moment to advance their own narrow agenda. They want you to think that there's a government spook listening in every time you pick up the phone or Skype with your grandkids. They want you to think of our intelligence community as the bad guys, straight out of The Bourne Identity or a Hollywood thriller, and they want you to think that if we weakened our capabilities, the rest of the world would love us more. Let me be clear: All these fears are baloney. "Let's be clear," Christie added. "All these fears are exaggerated and ridiculous. When it comes to fighting terrorism, our government is not the enemy, and we should not be listening to people like Edward Snowden."
Click HERE to read more.


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Now that you're filled up with information, fill up those
bellies with
John's Incredible Pizza that is, not ironically, pretty
incredible. Here's how this symposium of fun works, because it's not
just pizza after all.
First, hit the all-you-can-eat buffet of
pizza, salads, sides, and desserts and then pick one of the themed rooms
to eat to your heart's content. We choose the Toon Time room where
various televisions and screens played all the kid's favorites while we
ate but next time we'll check out Cabin Fever (a lodge experience) and
the Hall of Fame (for the sports fanatics).
Next? Get ready to
play! This indoor play space has it all. From arcade games to laser
maze, bumper cars to a special Kiddie Land reserved just for the little
ones, be prepared to spend hours here riding and playing your way
around. And of course, hit up the prize counter before you leave to cash
in all those tickets.
Pro Tip: If you are there on a weekend
or a holiday, get there as early as possible to avoid long lines. And
while it's not obvious at first, John's Incredible Pizza Co. is located
in the mall on the lower level.
Medieval Times transports everyone to a Spanish kingdom
where Knights battle it out for honor and prestige in front of the
Queen, horses dance and troupe their way across the arena, a falcon
swoops high above your head in a fearless flight of showmanship all
while you get to eat a four-course meal with your hands.
The pomp
and circumstance is seriously impressive and for anyone who appreciates
the skill and mastery that comes with Classical Dressage, you'll be awed
by the talent of the horses and their masters.
When the jousting
action gets underway, the crowd, broken up into teams, goes wild routing
for their color Knight. While I eschew violence of any kind (even the
play-kind and was a bit dismayed when the crowd called for one of the
knight's deaths when they had a choice to let him live or die), my kids
really enjoyed it (see photo above).
Oh and you can pretty much eat as much garlic bread as you want. #score
Both local attraction and world-class thrill provider,
Knott's Berry Farm is literally, fun for all ages. If you have a little
one under the age of five, head to Camp Snoopy where rides on trains,
airplanes, and hot air balloons are all the rage. Snoopy and friends
hang out here too so getting photos with the cuddly pals is super easy.
into Grizzly Creek Lodge for lunch and then after, make sure to find
the bouncy bridge under the waterfalls that the preschool set (and let's
be honest, big kids too) love to walk across.
Make your way over
to the Calico Railroad (stop at the carousel in Fiesta Village on the
way) for a ride around the park that may involve an in-progress robbery
and then saddle up for a ride on the Butterfield Stagecoach where a team
of horses take you on a ride you won't forget (did people
really use to travel this way?).
In need of a break? Grab a seat at Calico Mine Stage, where performances are held daily.
Pro Tip: Don't forget to pack the sunscreen!
What makes Knott's extra special is they have seasonal
festivals that are totally worth planning your trip for — from the
Boysenberry festival (a celebration of the berry that made the area
famous and now gets incorporated into various foods like quesadillas,
street corn and of course, ice cream), to
Knott's Spooky Farm where the
whole place gets in the mood for Halloween.
And thrill-seekers rejoice! HangTime, the first and only dive coaster in California, will have its grand opening on May 18 at Knott's Berry Farm! Just make sure to hit all the eats and treats afterward.
Ahoy Matey! ARG'nt you glad you came to the pirate
adventure? We sure were! With an actual boat that sits in a pool of
water, get ready for splashtastic shenanigans and good, fun for all at
Pirate's Dinner Adventure.
loved the show from start to finish, there was so much action to keep
us all engaged the entire time. So much so, my youngest never took her
eyes off the action and forgot to eat her meal. Of course she remembered
to eat when the cake came out.
A more intimate experience than
Medieval Times, this performance kept up the jolly good spirits with an
impressive aerial show to boot. If you have antsy kids, skip the preshow
and also prepare the little ones for some loud cannon blasts that come
with a generous warning from the cast.
Get breakfast to-go at the hotel (save it for lunch later) and make your way over to Porto's Bakery (yes, that Porto's) and get ready to dive into the freshest baked goods
by just driving down the street from the hotel. Get there early (you're
up anyway right?) and enjoy the richest coffee, yummiest donuts,
stuffed potato balls, cheese rolls, and famous guava pastries all
without having to drive to Burbank, Glendale or Downey.
Did I mention get there early? By 11 a.m., lines form out the door.
Turns out, not all trampoline parks are made the same and
while this one has the pre-requisite jumping squares, what we loved
Big Air Trampoline Park are things we hadn't seen in other places.
Get in a
bull ride, take a stab at their climbing wall and best of all, now that
you're kids have been inspired by Medieval Times and all that jousting,
they can try their hand at Big Air's very own jousting competition
called the Battlebeam.
Walk along the balance beam, over a ball of
foam cubes, with a very large, foam jousting stick and battle your
competition until they fall. Don't worry about it getting too out of
hand — there's a staff person watching all the action to make sure it
stays fun for everyone.


text:
The Burial of Christ (Luke 23:47-56)
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Robb Brunansky - April 14, 2019
The Burial of Christ (Luke 23:47-56)
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The burial of Christ is central to the gospel message; yet, it is probably the least talked about part of the gospel doctrine. We celebrate the birth of Christ. We worship His death of the Cross. We exalt His Resurrection. But, we don't seem to think much about Jesus' burial. At times, we see it as a mere blip or an afterthought in the gospel narrative. However, there is an importance to this part of Jesus' three days. To appreciate the significance of Jesus' burial, please listen to this morning's sermon by Pastor Robb. This is just the beginning of the Messiah's story.


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Spinning class is just like Hollywood.
We are surrounded by beautiful people.
Some are new and don't have the right shoes.
Some have been here for years and we'll never keep up.
We open our eyes and realize we are the only ones standing while everyone else is sitting.
We don't think we can make it, so we slow down, sit down, put our heads down, and tell ourselves, "all that matters is to keep pedaling."
We're sure everyone sees we're off rhythm, overweight and out of practice.
But look around.
Everyone is concentrated only on themselves.
Making it through their own workout.
There are moments when everything clicks, we're on pace, sweating and smiling.
There are moments when we hear a lyric from a familiar song as if for the first time.
There are moments where it suddenly feels effortless.
From the outside we look like people on stationary bikes,
Spinning our wheels.
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text:
Later Constituent Assembly of India,( Vol.XII, 24-1-1950) opined:
"The composition consisting of words and music known as Janaganamana is the National Anthem of India, subject to such alterations as the Government may authorize as occasion arises ..."
Only the first of the five stanzas was designated as the anthem.
The anthem goes like this:
Jaana Gaana Maana Adhinayaka Jayehe
Bharata bhagya vidhata;
Punjaba Sindhu Gujarata Maratha,
Dravida Utkala Banga,
Vindhya, Himachala, Jamuna, Ganga,
Ucchhala Jaladhitaranga;
Taba Shubha Naame Jaage
Taba Shubha Ashish Maage
Gaye taba jaya gaatha.
Jana gana mangala dayaka jaya he
Bharata bhagya vidhata.
Jaya he, jaya he, jaya he,
Jaya jaya jaya, jaya he!
The English translation of the song goes like this:
Thou art the ruler of the minds of all people,
Dispenser of India's destiny.
Thy name rouses the hearts of the Punjab,
Sind, Gujarat, and Maratha,
Of the Dravid, and Orissa and Bengal.
It echoes in the hills of Vindhyas and,
Himalayas, mingles in the music of the
Jamuna and the Ganges and is chanted by
the waves of the Indian sea.
The pray for the blessings,
and sing by the praise,
The saving of all people
waits in thy hand.
Thou dispenser of India's destiny,
Victory, victory, victory to thee.


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So what we are talking about here, essentially, is a lie told by a 14 year old? New kid shows up in a new place, at a new school, and concocts a story that helps him fit in, helps him move forward from the past and into the present. Not the coolest, but pretty understandable. Fourteen is fourteen.
And, yeah, it kind of stuck and expanded, as happens with lies. Didn't want to tell his new fiends because he didn't want to lose them. Wasn't quite mature enough yet. He probably came to "believe" that lie, in ways, or at least find comfort in itsince, while not technically true, it was born from truth: a traumatic chapter in his life. So he was being honest about something (bad times) but expressing it through a dishonest story (dead friend).
This is all pretty understandable, forgivable, if you can harness some deeper empathy. This lie is not about you, not something he concocted to "get you," but something that predated you, had nothing to do with you. Yeah, it sucks that your initial bonding point was mutual trauma, and that's now a bit fuzzy, but it sounds like he was relating from a real place, a genuine place, just using different "facts" to express that. Also, hopefully by this state you guys have a lot more in common than just having traumatic pasts, a lot more to lean on and into.
If he's a good guy, if aside from this you haven't had reason to doubt him, I don't see this as a dealbreaker. More like a thorn from his past, his long ago past, that stayed in there a bit too long. Best part? He has removed it, owned it. That is admirable stuff, right there. Zoom out just a hair and what he just displayed, in telling you and his friends, is solid characterthe best of stuff, the stuff we want from partners.