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From NWChem
Hybrid Calculations with ONIOM
ONIOM is the hybrid method of Morokuma and co-workers that enables different levels of theory to be applied to different parts of a molecule/system and combined to produce a consistent energy expression. The objective is to perform a high-level calculation on just a small part of the system and to include the effects of the remainder at lower levels of theory, with the end result being of similar accuracy to a high-level calculation on the full system.
- M. Svensson, S. Humbel, R.D.J. Froese, T. Mastubara, S. Sieber, and K. Morokuma, J. Phys. Chem., 100, 19357 (1996).
- S. Dapprich, I. Komaromi, K.S. Byun, K. Morokuma, and M.J. Frisch, J. Mol. Struct. (Theochem), 461-462, 1 (1999).
- R.D.J. Froese and K. Morokuma in ``Encylopedia of Computational Chemistry, volume 2, pp.1244-1257, (ed. P. von Rague Schleyer, John Wiley and Sons, Chichester, Sussex, 1998).
The NWChem ONIOM module implements two- and three-layer ONIOM models for use in energy, gradient, geometry optimization, and vibrational frequency calculations with any of the pure quantum mechanical methods within NWChem. At the present time, it is not possible to perform ONIOM calculations with either solvation models or classical force fields. Nor is it yet possible to compute properties except as derivatives of the total energy.
Using the terminology of Morokuma et al., the full molecular geometry including all atoms is referred to as the "real" geometry and it is treated using a "low"-level of theory. A subset of these atoms (referred to as the "model" geometry) are treated using both the "low"-level and a "high"-level of theory. A three-layer model also introduces an "intermediate" model geometry and a "medium" level of theory.
The two-layer model requires a high and low level of theory and a real and model molecular geometry. The energy at the high-level of theory for the real geometry is estimated as
E(High,Real) = E(Low,Real) + [E(High,Model) - E(Low,Model)].
The three-layer model requires high, medium and low levels of theory, and real, intermediate and model geometries and the corresponding energy estimate is
E(High,Real) = E(Low,Real) + [E(High,Model) - E(Medium,Model)] + [E(Medium,Inter) - E(Low,Inter)].
When does ONIOM work well? The approximation for a two-layer model will be good if
- the model system includes the interactions that dominate the energy difference being computed and the high-level of theory describes these to the required precision, and
- the interactions between the model and the rest of the real system (substitution effects) are described to sufficient accuracy at the lower level of theory.
ONIOM is used to compute energy differences and the absolute energies are not all that meaningful even though they are well defined. Due to cancellation of errors, ONIOM actually works better than you might expect, but a poorly designed calculation can yield very bad results. Please read and heed the caution at the end of the article by Dapprich et al.
The input options are as follows
ONIOM HIGH <string theory> [basis <string basis default "ao basis">] \ [ecp <string ecp>] [input <string input>] [MEDIUM <string theory> [basis <string basis default "ao basis">] \ [ecp <string ecp>] [input <string input>]] LOW <string theory> [basis <string basis default "ao basis">] \ [ecp <string ecp>] [input <string input>] MODEL <integer natoms> [charge <double charge>] \ [<integer i1 j1> <real g1> [<string tag1>] ...] [INTER <integer natoms> [charge <double charge>] \ [<integer i1 j1> <real g1> [<string tag1>] ...]] [VECTORS [low-real <string mofile>] [low-model <string mofile>] \ [high-model <string mofile>] [medium-model <string mofile]\ [medium-inter <string mofile>] [low-inter <string mofile>]] [PRINT ...] [NOPRINT ...] END
which are described in detail below.
For better validation of user input, the HIGH, LOW and MODEL directives must always be specified. If the one of the MEDIUM or INTER directives are specified, then so must the other.
Real, model and intermediate geometries
The geometry and total charge of the full or real system should be specified as normal using the geometry directive. If Nmodel of the atoms are to be included in the model system, then these should be specified first in the geometry. Similarly, in a three-layer calculation, if there are Ninter atoms to be included in the intermediate system, then these should also be arranged together at the beginning of the geometry. The implict assumption is that the model system is a subset of the intermediate system which is a subset of the real system. The number of atoms to be included in the model and intemediate systems are specified using the MODEL and INTER directives. Optionally, the total charge of the model and intermediate systems may be adjusted. The default is that all three systems have the same total charge.
Example 1. A two-layer calculation on K + (H2O) taking the potassium ion as the model system. Note that no bonds are broken so no link atoms are introduced. The real geometry would be specified with potassium (the model) first.
geometry autosym K 0 0.00 1.37 O 0 0.00 -1.07 H 0 -0.76 -1.68 H 0 0.76 -1.68 end
and the following directive in the ONIOM input block indicates that one atom (implicitly the first in the geometry) is in the model system
model 1
Link atoms
Link atoms for bonds spanning two regions are automatically generated from the bond information. The additional parameters on the MODEL and INTER directives describe the broken bonds including scale factors for placement of the link atom and, optionally, the type of link atom. The type of link atom defaults to hydrogen, but any type may be specified (actually here you are specifying a geometry tag which is used to associate a geometrical center with an atom type and basis sets, etc. For each broken bond specify the numbers of the two atoms (i and j), the scale factor (g) and optionally the tag of the link atom. Link atoms are placed along the vector connecting the the first to the second atom of the bond according to the equation
where g is the scale factor. If the scale factor is one, then the link atom is placed where the second atom was. More usually, the scale factor is less than one, in which case the link atom is placed between the original two atoms. The scale factor should be chosen so that the link atom (usually hydrogen) is placed near its equilibrium bond length from the model atom. E.g., when breaking a single carbon-carbon bond (typical length 1.528 Angstrøms) using a hydrogen link atom we will want a carbon-hydrogen bond length of about 1.084 Angstrøms, so the scale factor should be chosen as 1.084/1.528 ~ 0.709.
Example 2. A calculation on acetaldehyde (H3C − CHO) using aldehyde (H − CHO) as the model system. The covalent bond between the two carbon atoms is broken and a link atom must be introduced to replace the methyl group. The link atom is automatically generated -- all you need to do is specify the atoms in the model system that are also in the real system (here CHO) and the broken bonds. Here is the geometry of acetaldehyde with the CHO of aldehyde first
geometry C -0.383 0.288 0.021 H -1.425 0.381 0.376 O 0.259 1.263 -0.321 H 0.115 -1.570 1.007 H -0.465 -1.768 -0.642 H 1.176 -1.171 -0.352 C 0.152 -1.150 0.005 end
There are three atoms (the first three) of the real geometry included in the model geometry, and we are breaking the bond between atoms 1 and 7, replacing atom 7 with a hydrogen link atom. This is all accomplished by the directive
model 3 1 7 0.709 H
Since the default link atom is hydrogen there is actually no need to specify the ``H.
See also the three-layer example for a more complex example.
Numbering of the link atoms
The link atoms are appended to the atoms of the model or intermediate systems in the order that the broken bonds are specified in the input. This is of importance only if manually constructing an initial guess.
High, medium and low theories
The two-layer model requires both the high-level and low-level theories be specified. The three-layer model also requires the medium-level theory. Each of these includes a theory (such as SCF, MP2, DFT, CCSD, CCSD(T), etc.), an optional basis set, an optional ECP, and an optional string containing general NWChem input.
Basis specification
The basis name on the theory directive (high, medium, or low) is that specified on a basis set directive (see Section 7) and not the name of a standard basis in the library. If not specified, the basis set for the high-level theory defaults to the standard "ao basis". That for the medium level defaults to the high-level basis, and the low-level basis defaults to the medium-level basis. Other wavefunction parameters are obtained from the standard wavefunction input blocks. See Effective core potential for an example.
Effective core potentials
If an effective core potential is specified in the usual fashion outside of the ONIOM input then this will be used in all calculations. If an alternative ECP name (the name specified on the ECP directive in the same manner as done for basis sets) is specified on one of the theory directives, then this ECP will be used in preference for that level of theory. See teh three-layer example for sample input.
General input strings
For many purposes, the ability to specify the theory, basis and effective core potential is adequate. All of the options for each theory are determined from their independent input blocks. However, if the same theory (e.g., DFT) is to be used with different options for the ONIOM theoretical models, then the general input strings must be used. These strings are processed as NWChem input each time the theoretical model is invoked. The strings may contain any NWChem input, except for options pertaining to ONIOM and the task directive. The intent that the strings be used just to control the options pertaining to the theory being used.
A word of caution. Be sure to check that the options are producing the desired results. Since the NWChem database is persistent and the ONIOM calculations happen in an undefined order, the input strings should fully define the calculation you wish to have happen.
For instance, if the high model is DFT/B3LYP/6-311g** and the low model is DFT/LDA/3-21g, the ONIOM input might look like this
oniom model 3 low dft basis 3-21g input "dft\; xc\; end" high dft basis 6-311g** input "dft\; xc b3lyp\; end" end
The empty XC directive restores the default LDA exchange-correlation option (see Section 11.3). Note that semi-colons and other quotation marks inside the input string must be preceded by a backslash to avoid special interpretation.
See |DFT with and without charge fitting for another example.
Use of symmetry
Symmetry should work just fine as long as the model and intermediate regions respect the symmetry -- i.e., symmetry equivalent atoms need to be treated equivalently. If symmetry equivalent atoms must be treated in separate regions then the symmetry must be lowered (or completely switched off).
Molecular orbital files
The VECTORS directive in the ONIOM block is different to that elsewhere in NWChem. For each of the necessary combinations of theory and geometry you can specify a different file for the molecular orbitals. By default each combination will store the MO vectors in the permanent directory using a file name created by appending to the name of the calculation the following string
- low-real -- ".lrmos"
- low-inter -- ".limos"
- low-model -- ".lmmos"
- medium-inter -- ".mimos"
- medium-model -- ".mmmos"
- high-model -- ".hmmos"
Each calculation will utilize the appropriate vectors which is more efficient during geometry optimizations and frequency calculations, and is also useful for the initial calculation. In the absence of existing MO vectors files, the default atomic guess is used (see |Input/output of MO vectors).
If special measures must be taken to converge the initial SCF, DFT or MCSCF calculation for one or more of the systems, then initial vectors may be saved in a file with the default name, or another name may be specified using the VECTORS directive. Note that subsequent vectors (e.g., from a geometry optimization) will be written back to this file, so take a copy if you wish to preserve it. To generate the initial guess for the model or intermediate systems it is necessary to generate the geometries which is most readily done, if there are link atoms, by just running NWChem on the input for the ONIOM calculation on your workstation. It will print these geometries before starting any calculations which you can then terminate.
E.g., in a calculation on Fe(III) surrounded by some ligands, it is hard to converge the full (real) system from the atomic guess so as to obtain a d5 configuration for the iron atom since the d orbitals are often nominally lower in energy than some of the ligand orbitals. The most effective mechanism is to converge the isolated Fe(III) and then to use the fragment guess as a starting guess for the real system. The resulting converged molecular orbitals can be saved either with the default name (as described above in this section), in which case no additional input is necessary. If an alternative name is desired, then the VECTORS directive may be used as follows
vectors low-real /u/rjh/jobs/fe_ether_water.mos
Restart of ONIOM calculations does not currently work as smoothly as we would like. For geometry optimizations that terminated gracefully by running out of iterations, the restart will work as normal. Otherwise, specify in the input of the restart job the last geometry of the optimization. The Hessian information will be reused and the calculation should proceed losing at most the cost of one ONIOM gradient evaluation. For energy or frequency calculations, restart may not currently be possible.
Hydrocarbon bond energy
A simple two-layer model changing just the wavefunction with one link atom.
This reproduces the two-layer ONIOM (MP2:HF) result from Dapprich et al. for the reaction R − CH3 = R − CH2 + H with R = CH3 using CH4 as the model. The geometries of R − CH3 and R − CH2 are optimized at the DFT-B3LYP/6-311++G** level of theory, and then ONIOM is used to compute the binding energy using UMP2 for the model system and HF for the real system. The results, including MP2 calculations on the full system for comparison, are as given in the table below.
The following input first performs a calculation on CH3 − CH2, and then on CH3 − CH3. Note that in the second calculation we cannot use the full symmetry since we are breaking the C-C bond in forming the model system (the non-equivalence of the methyl groups is perhaps more apparent if we write R − CH3).
start basis spherical H library 6-311++G**; C library 6-311++G** end title "ONIOM Me-CH2" geometry autosym H -0.23429328 1.32498565 0.92634814 H -0.23429328 1.32498565 -0.92634814 C -0.13064265 0.77330370 0.00000000 H -1.01618703 -1.19260361 0.00000000 H 0.49856072 -1.08196901 -0.88665533 H 0.49856072 -1.08196901 0.88665533 C -0.02434414 -0.71063687 0.00000000 end scf; uhf; doublet; thresh 1e-6; end mp2; freeze atomic; end oniom high mp2 low scf model 3 3 7 0.724 end task oniom title "ONIOM Me-Me" geometry # Note cannot use full D3D symmetry here, either specify noautosym, or change an atom tag (here C -> C1) H -0.72023641 0.72023641 -1.16373235 H 0.98386124 0.26362482 -1.16373235 H -0.26362482 -0.98386124 -1.16373235 C 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.76537515 H 0.72023641 -0.72023641 1.16373235 H -0.98386124 -0.26362482 1.16373235 H 0.26362482 0.98386124 1.16373235 C1 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.76537515 end scf; rhf; singlet; end oniom high mp2 low scf model 4 4 8 0.724 end task oniom
Optimization and frequencies
A two-layer model including modification of theory, basis, ECP and total charge and no link atoms.
This input reproduces the ONIOM optimization and vibrational frequency calculation of Rh(CO)2Cp of Dapprich et al. The model system is . The low theory is the Gaussian LANL2MB model (Hay-Wadt n+1 ECP with minimal basis on Rh, STO-3G on others) with SCF. The high theory is the Gaussian LANL2DZ model (another Hay-Wadt ECP with a DZ basis set on Rh, Dunning split valence on the other atoms) with DFT/B3LYP. Note that different names should be used for the basis set and ECP since the same mechanism is used to store them in the database.
start ecp LANL2DZ_ECP rh library LANL2DZ_ECP end basis LANL2DZ spherical rh library LANL2DZ_ECP o library SV_(Dunning-Hay); c library SV_(Dunning-Hay); h library SV_(Dunning-Hay) end ecp Hay-Wadt_MB_(n+1)_ECP rh library Hay-Wadt_MB_(n+1)_ECP end # This is the minimal basis used by Gaussian. It is not the same # as the one in the EMSL basis set library for this ECP. basis Hay-Wadt_MB_(n+1) spherical Rh s; .264600D+01 -.135541D+01; .175100D+01 .161122D+01; .571300D+00 .589381D+00 Rh s; .264600D+01 .456934D+00; .175100D+01 -.595199D+00; .571300D+00 -.342127D+00 .143800D+00 .410138D+00; .428000D-01 .780486D+00 Rh p; .544000D+01 -.987699D-01; .132900D+01 .743359D+00; .484500D+00 .366846D+00 Rh p; .659500D+00 -.370046D-01; .869000D-01 .452364D+00; .257000D-01 .653822D+00 Rh d; .366900D+01 .670480D-01; .142300D+01 .455084D+00; .509100D+00 .479584D+00 .161000D+00 .233826D+00 o library sto-3g; c library sto-3g; h library sto-3g end charge 0 geometry autosym rh 0.00445705 -0.15119674 0.00000000 c -0.01380554 -1.45254070 1.35171818 c -0.01380554 -1.45254070 -1.35171818 o -0.01805883 -2.26420212 2.20818932 o -0.01805883 -2.26420212 -2.20818932 c 1.23209566 1.89314720 0.00000000 c 0.37739392 1.84262319 -1.15286640 c -1.01479160 1.93086461 -0.70666350 c -1.01479160 1.93086461 0.70666350 c 0.37739392 1.84262319 1.15286640 h 2.31251453 1.89903673 0.00000000 h 0.70378132 1.86131979 -2.18414218 h -1.88154273 1.96919306 -1.35203550 h -1.88154273 1.96919306 1.35203550 h 0.70378132 1.86131979 2.18414218 end dft; grid fine; convergence gradient 1e-6 density 1e-6; xc b3lyp; end scf; thresh 1e-6; end oniom low scf basis Hay-Wadt_MB_(n+1) ecp Hay-Wadt_MB_(n+1)_ECP high dft basis LANL2DZ ecp LANL2DZ_ECP model 5 charge 1 print low end task oniom optimize task oniom freq
A three-layer example
A three layer example combining CCSD(T), and MP2 with two different quality basis sets, and using multiple link atoms.
The full system is tetra-dimethyl-amino-ethylene (TAME) or (N(Me)2)2-C=C-(N(Me)2)2. The intermediate system is (NH2)2-C=C-(NH2)2 and H2C=CH2 is the model system. CCSD(T)+aug-cc-pvtz is used for the model region, MP2+aug-cc-pvtz for the intermediate region, and MP2+aug-cc-pvdz for everything.
In the real geometry the first two atoms (C, C) are the model system (link atoms will be added automatically). The first six atoms (C, C, N, N, N, N) describe the intermediate system (again with link atoms to be added automatically). The atoms have been numbered using comments to make the bonding input easier to generate.
To make the model system, four C-N bonds are broken between the ethylene fragment and the dimethyl-amino groups and replaced with C-H bonds. To make the intermediate system, eight C-N bonds are broken between the nitrogens and the methyl groups and replaced with N-H bonds. The scaling factor could be chosen differently for each of the bonds.
start geometry C 0.40337795 -0.17516305 -0.51505208 # 1 C -0.40328664 0.17555927 0.51466084 # 2 N 1.87154979 -0.17516305 -0.51505208 # 3 N -0.18694782 -0.60488524 -1.79258692 # 4 N 0.18692927 0.60488318 1.79247594 # 5 N -1.87148219 0.17564718 0.51496494 # 6 C 2.46636552 1.18039452 -0.51505208 # 7 C 2.48067731 -1.10425355 0.46161675 # 8 C -2.46642715 -1.17982091 0.51473105 # 9 C -2.48054940 1.10495864 -0.46156202 # 10 C 0.30027136 0.14582197 -2.97072148 # 11 C -0.14245927 -2.07576980 -1.96730852 # 12 C -0.29948109 -0.14689874 2.97021079 # 13 C 0.14140463 2.07558249 1.96815181 # 14 H 0.78955302 2.52533887 1.19760764 H -0.86543435 2.50958894 1.88075113 ... and 22 other hydrogen atoms on the methyl groups end basis aug-cc-pvtz spherical C library aug-cc-pvtz; H library aug-cc-pvtz end basis aug-cc-pvdz spherical C library aug-cc-pvtz; H library aug-cc-pvtz end oniom high ccsd(t) basis aug-cc-pvtz medium mp2 basis aug-cc-pvtz low mp2 basis aug-cc-pvdz model 2 1 3 0.87 1 4 0.87 2 5 0.87 2 6 0.87 inter 6 3 7 0.69 3 8 0.69 4 11 0.69 4 12 0.69 \ 5 13 0.69 5 14 0.69 6 9 0.69 6 10 0.69 end task oniom
DFT with and without charge fitting
Demonstrates use of general input strings.
A two-layer model for anthracene (a linear chain of three fused benzene rings) using benzene as the model system. The high-level theory is DFT/B3LYP/TZVP with exact Coulomb. The low level is DFT/LDA/DZVP2 with charge fitting.
Note the following.
- The semi-colons and quotation marks inside the input string must be quoted with backslash.
- The low level of theory sets the fitting basis set and the high level of theory unsets it.
start geometry symmetry d2h C 0.71237329 -1.21458940 0.0 C -0.71237329 -1.21458940 0.0 C 0.71237329 1.21458940 0.0 C -0.71237329 1.21458940 0.0 C -1.39414269 0.00000000 0.0 C 1.39414269 0.00000000 0.0 H -2.47680865 0.00000000 0.0 H 2.47680865 0.00000000 0.0 C 1.40340535 -2.48997027 0.0 C -1.40340535 -2.48997027 0.0 C 1.40340535 2.48997027 0.0 C -1.40340535 2.48997027 0.0 C 0.72211503 3.64518615 0.0 C -0.72211503 3.64518615 0.0 C 0.72211503 -3.64518615 0.0 C -0.72211503 -3.64518615 0.0 H 2.48612947 2.48094825 0.0 H 1.24157357 4.59507342 0.0 H -1.24157357 4.59507342 0.0 H -2.48612947 2.48094825 0.0 H 2.48612947 -2.48094825 0.0 H 1.24157357 -4.59507342 0.0 H -1.24157357 -4.59507342 0.0 H -2.48612947 -2.48094825 0.0 end basis small h library DZVP_(DFT_Orbital) c library DZVP_(DFT_Orbital) end basis fitting h library DGauss_A1_DFT_Coulomb_Fitting c library DGauss_A1_DFT_Coulomb_Fitting end basis big h library TZVP_(DFT_Orbital) c library TZVP_(DFT_Orbital) end oniom model 8 1 9 0.75 2 10 0.75 3 11 0.75 4 12 0.75 high dft basis big input "unset \"cd basis\"\; dft\; xc b3lyp\; end" low dft basis small input "set \"cd basis\" fitting\; dft\; xc\; end" end task oniom


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Anthony's 2013 NFL Preview
Predicted records in parentheses
1. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (11-5): Receiving corps took two huge hits over the spring with Wes Welker's departure and Aaron Hernandez's arrest for murder, as Rob Gronkowski struggles to get healthy again. But most of their key conference rivals didn't exactly have trouble-free off-seasons either, and they're one of two AFC teams who could be compelled to play the entire season with 10 men on the field on every down and they'd still win their division.
2. MIAMI DOLPHINS (8-8): What if Ryan Tannehill underachieves this season to the same extent that he overachieved last season? In that case, free-agent wide receiver acquiree Mike Wallace will wither on the vine, and don't expect Reggie Bush-bereft RB contingent to bail them out. The hype machine is cranked up in South Florida once again, but this team has teased too many times over the past decade or so to be trusted.
3. BUFFALO BILLS (5-11): The selection of E.J. Manuel in the first round has been widely castigated as a colossal reach, while Kevin Kolb continues to do a totally awesome Gary Hogeboom impression. And is local product Doug Marrone (late of Syracuse) the man to lead this team where they want and need to go? Far from convinced of that.
4. NEW YORK JETS (4-12): Goodbye, cruel world - the Rex Ryan/Mark Sanchez circus comes to its long-overdue and merciful end. Look for them to think big in their search for Ryan's successor - and if they're lucky, Sanchez's will prove to already be in place (Geno Smith).
1. PITTSBURGH STEELERS (11-5): They are no more a "team in transition" than any of the other AFC teams that count - and if the injury bug will only give them a break this year, who knows? And even in this offense-happy day and age, the best defense in the league - although a drop-off is certainly possible with James Harrison having defected to division foe Cincinnati - is not a bad thing to have.
2. CINCINNATI BENGALS (9-7): Finally broke their no-two-winning-seasons-in-a-row jinx last year, and did it with a repeat playoff appearance into the bargain. But until proven to the contrary, one has to assume that they're good enough to make the playoffs - especially in what is now clearly the weaker conference - but not good enough to do any damage once there.
3. BALTIMORE RAVENS (8-8): Eight starters from the team that won Super Bowl XLVII are gone, six of them from a defense that wasn't exactly its customarily dominating self to begin with (17th in yards allowed and tied for 12th in points given up). Can't see them not taking major step back.
4. CLEVELAND BROWNS (6-10): They may have changed head coaches, again (this time handing the reins to Rob Chudzinski), but no changes in quarterbacking and receiving situations which both leave, to be charitable about it, much to be desired, free opposing defenses to focus on Trent Richardson. And defense can't even give the appearance of playing well because no one has to gain too many yards or score too many points to beat them (they ranked 23rd in the league in 2012). Still, this will be their best season since 2007!
1. HOUSTON TEXANS (11-5): Two years ago late-season injuries on offense cost them a high playoff seed. Last year it was late-season injuries on defense. But even if it's neither this time around, they must find a way to get it done on artificial turf, upon which they're an atrocious 6-27 since 2004.
2. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (9-7): Rode easy schedule from 2-14 in 2011 to playoff-making shocker last year, and did it despite -12 turnover differential. But this year's slate isn't a whole lot more demanding, so a cut-down on miscues can limit how much ground they give back - always a concern the year following a surprise season.
3. TENNESSEE TITANS (7-9): Kyle Boller's 14-26 record as a starter in college turned out to be a red flag worth heeding. Well Jake Locker was 10-21 as a college starter - and is it just me, or has Chris Johnson fallen completely off the radar? Add a defense that doesn't even deserve to be on the radar, and not much changes from last year's 6-10 jaunt.
4. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (3-13): You mean to tell me that even Tim Tebow wouldn't have represented a massive improvement over last year's - and now this year's - Blaine Gabbert/Chad Henne-led debacle? I'd love to get Dave Caldwell in a poker game. He'd stand part with 7-5-4-3-2.
1. DENVER BRONCOS (12-4): They're unproven at running back, and don't seem to be in a hurry to do anything about it. But even that, plus the defensive losses of Elvis Dumervil in comical fax-machine mix-up and Von Miller to a six-game suspension, will only serve to delay division clinching from about Halloween to about Thanksgiving. But once in the playoffs, then what?
2. SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (6-10): Eschewed the "Big Four" - Bill Cowher, Jon Gruden, Tony Dungy and Brian Billick - and opted for low-budget Mike McCoy as successor to the ill-fated Norv Turner. McCoy and incoming GM Tom Telesco have a lot to prove, and won't do it this year - although if Philip Rivers revives the echoes and Manti Te'o turns out not to be a weapon of mass distraction, they're the least of three evils to complete division exacta behind Broncs for third straight year, and fourth all told.
3. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (6-10): What has Alex Smith ever done without a running game? And he may be confronting that issue again this year with Jamaal Charles' return to pre-ACL tear form no slam dunk. Andy Reid engineered a two-game improvement in his first season with the Eagles, by the way. Reid doubling his pleasure here sounds about right.
4. OAKLAND RAIDERS (5-11): Matt Flynn would have to pick this team for his new start after Russell Wilson came out of nowhere to steal his opportunity in Seattle. Dennis Allen is sadly out of his depth. It was a surprise that he held onto his job at the end of last season. It will be an absolute shock if he's still there after this one.
1. DALLAS COWBOYS (10-6): Have key angle in their favor - and that is that they take the league's biggest drop in strength of schedule from 2012 to 2013 using the former's final records, although the actual drop (48 percentage points) is modest by the standards of these things. But if Tony Romo gets more than modest help from his running game (next to last in the NFL in '12) and defense (19th), he should at least get the chance to fall flat on his face in the postseason again.
2. WASHINGTON REDSKINS (9-7): Robert Griffin III's knee gets all the ink but what about the two-year, $18 million salary-cap "fine" that pretty much kept them out of the free-agent market again this spring? The RG3 trade also kept them out of the first round of the '13 draft, and one of last season's two notable defensive injury casualties, DE Adam Carriker, has already been shelved for at least the first six weeks, and maybe the entire season. So it's hard to see where any further improvement will come from, and they won't sneak up on anybody this year.
3. NEW YORK GIANTS (9-7): They do have one thing going for them, in that they didn't win the division last year (they haven't won back-to-back division titles since 1989 and '90). But line play on both sides of the ball remains a major headache. Yes, they do have a 10-6 Super Bowl championship team (from 2007) and even a 9-7 Super Bowl championship team (from 2011), but those kind of regular-season records might not be enough to so much as get them in the playoffs now that the balance of power between the conferences has shifted firmly to the NFC.
4. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (2-14): Replace Andy Reid with Chip Kelly when everything Reid was supposedly bad at, Kelly is even worse at? But Kelly figures to wear out his welcome very quickly, quite possibly even after one season - a season keynoted by lopsided defeats, destabilizing injuries (especially at quarterback), and a few laughs where none were intended.
1. GREEN BAY PACKERS (13-3): Maybe the wake-up call they received last year - an 11-5 regular-season finish following 2011's 15-1 - was just what they needed (and since they exited the playoffs in the same round both years, how much did it really cost them?). Aaron Rodgers has proven that he can win without a running game (and he will probably have to do it again), and defense comes off 21-spot jump in yards-allowed rankings (from last in 2011 to 11th in 2012).
2. DETROIT LIONS (8-8): Arrival of Reggie Bush via free-agency breaks long-time talent drought at running back, but defense must step up when it matters (13th in yards allowed but 27th scoring-wise a year ago). This division is nowhere near as tough as advertised, so there is room for them to move up - but they better; otherwise, Jim Schwartz could be in trouble.
3. MINNESOTA VIKINGS (7-9): They can sign away all the receivers they want from division rivals (Greg Jennings), but it will do them no good so long as their quarterbacking remains among the worst in the NFL. And there really isn't much here on defense once you get past front four headed by outspoken (to say the least) defensive end Jared Allen. They might literally need 3,000 yards from Adrian Peterson to get back in the playoffs.
4. CHICAGO BEARS (6-10): Firing Lovie Smith after a 10-6 season was, to understate it, a bit cheeky, and Marc Trestman was the Susan Lucci of NFL head-coaching candidates until he finally struck paydirt with this assignment. What did all those other teams know? Defense won't be the same now that Brian Urlacher has been forced into retirement by suddenly penurious front office.
1. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (13-3): Just get out that blue pencil and line-item-veto their 2012 season, marred as it was not only by the bounty-related suspensions (including that of head coach Sean Payton) but also the league's sharpest rise in schedule difficulty from 2011 - a fate which befalls their arch-division rivals this year. Look for more balance all the way around, with not only the defense carrying its fair share of the load again, but a breakout season from RB Mark Ingram - which will form the basis of what, if analyzing things statically, would appear to be a stunning turnaround. Who dat gonna beat dem Saints in 2013? Just maybe nobody at all.
2. ATLANTA FALCONS (10-6): As alluded to above, they take the biggest strength-of-schedule jump in the league, an imposing 82 percentage points - a scenario that has produced an average drop in record of four games and change the following season since 2004, and of at least three games all but once over that span. And how many times has free-agent pickup Steven Jackson gotten through an entire season without missing at least some games due to injury - and they expect him to suddenly start now, at age 30? Finally, we're still looking for our first repeat winner of this division in its now 11-year history.
3. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (6-10): Will the real Josh Freeman please stand up? Greg Schiano has more than a little of Buddy Ryan in him - and not in a good way.
4. CAROLINA PANTHERS (5-11): If Cam Newton wants to take up mixed martial arts during the off-season, I've got the perfect walk-out song for him: Eric Carmen's All By Myself. Please, get this dude some help! But it won't happen soon enough to save Ron Rivera from the axe.
1. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (13-3): They're the favorites to go all the way in most of the sports books. But when the Patriots got to the conference title game last year, they became the first defending Super Bowl runner-up in 19 years to do so. That means none of them have still gotten back to the big dance the following year since then - and remember that it's been almost as long since an NFC champion has repeated, regardless of how they fared in the Super Bowl: The Packers of 1996 and '97. The pick to stay atop the division, but will take a stand against beyond that.
2. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (12-4): Colin Kaepernick may have the larger body but Russell Wilson has the larger body of work, with an entire NFL season as a starter under his belt. If Percy Harvin can liven up a passing game that was actually 27th in net yards gained in 2012, they can be right there for all the marbles - or should I say all the Skittles?
3. ARIZONA CARDINALS (7-9): Maybe the third sticker on Carson Palmer's luggage will be his last - and some excuse has to be found for not picking the complete order of finish in this division to repeat itself, having already predicted that in the AFC South. You see, it's only happened seven times in 80 chances since the 2002 realignment.
4. ST. LOUIS RAMS (5-11): The last time they tantalized us with a seven-win season (in 2010), they followed it up with a two-win stinker (in 2011). And Bernie Kosar could have been onto something with his preseason rant about this offense. The fall-off won't be as bad this time around - but Jeff Fisher's first playoff choke in his new surroundings will nonetheless have to wait.
PLAYOFFS (Home teams in CAPS)
AFC Wild Card: HOUSTON over Indianapolis
............................NEW ENGLAND over Cincinnati
NFC Wild Card:: SAN FRANCISCO over Atlanta
.............................Seattle over DALLAS
AFC Semifinals: DENVER over New England
.............................PITTSBURGH over Houston
NFC Semifinals: NEW ORLEANS over Seattle
.............................GREEN BAY over San Francisco
AFC Championship: Pittsburgh over DENVER
NFC Championship: NEW ORLEANS over Green Bay
Super Bowl XLVIII: New Orleans over Pittsburgh
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Entries in career in Pilates (2)
Featured Teacher: Erin Haag
Just a Pilates Instructor?
By Kristen Matthews
I made the decision to become a Pilates instructor because I wanted to help people. I fell in love with Pilates the moment I was introduced to it, and felt like I'd found the most ideal job when I made the decision to teach. I never could picture myself sitting behind a desk at a corporate job. With movement-based activities being a big part of my childhood, Pilates seemed to fit perfectly into my life. I truly felt that I had found my calling. What I didn't expect were the thoughts that surfaced one day of "I'm only just a Pilates instructor."
After eight years of teaching I found myself wanting more. I kept thinking to myself, "Am I doing enough?" "Am I making a difference?" After 20 sessions with a client who still was not able to set up for footwork, I would wonder, "Am I getting through?" "Are they learning anything from me?"


text:
Foresight Archives
|Precursor science and technologies
Sounding rockets
|Theoretical chemistry
Chemical synthesis
|Crucial advance
|Teams combine and improve technologies
|Teams combine and improve technologies
|Teams combine and improve technologies
|Threshold capability
|First satellite
|First computer
|First assembler
|Early practical applications
|Weather, spy and communication satellites
|Scientific calculations
Payroll calculations
|Molecular sensors
Molecular computing
|Breakthrough capability
|Routine, inexpensive spaceflight
|Powerful mass-market desktop computers
|Powerful inexpensive molecular manufacturing
|Further projected developments
|Lunar base,
Mars exploration
|Widespread electronic publishing
|New medical abilities
New, inexpensive products
|More advanced developments
|Mining, development, settlement of solar system
|Major automation of engineering design
|Help with computer goals
Environmental cleanup
|Yet more advanced developments
|Interstellar flight and settlement feasible
|Trillionfold computer power
|Help with computer goals
General tissue repair
This does not mean immediately, and it does not apply to all imaginable nanotechnologies. Some technologies are imaginable and clearly feasible, yet dauntingly complex. Still, the above considerations suggest that a wide range of advances could happen at a brisk pace. The main bottleneck might seem to be a shortage of knowledgeable designershardly anyone knows both chemistry and mechanical designbut improving computer simulations will help. These simulations will let engineers tinker with molecular-machinery designs, absorbing knowledge of chemical rules without learning chemistry in the usual sense.
Making familiar products from improved materials will increase their safety, performance, and usefulness. It will also present the simplest engineering task. A greater change, though, will result from unfamiliar products made possible by new manufacturing methods. In talking about unfamiliar products, a hard-to-answer question arises: What will people want?
Products are typically made because their recipients want them. In our discussions here, if we describe something that people won't want, then it probably won't get built, and if it does get built, it will soon disappear. (The exceptionsfraud, coercion, persistent mistakesare important, but in other contexts.) To anchor our discussion, it makes sense to look not at totally new products, but instead at new features for old products, or new ways to provide old services. This approach won't cover more than a fraction of what is possible, but will start from something sensible and provide a springboard for the imagination.
As usual, we are describing possibilities, not making predictions. The possibilities focused on here arise from more complex applications of molecular manufacturingnanotechnological products that contain nanomachines when they are finished. Earlier, we discussed strong materials. Now, we discuss some smart materials.
The goal of making materials and objects smart isn't new: researchers are already struggling to build structures that can sense internal and environmental conditions and adapt themselves appropriately. There is even a Journal of Intelligent Material Systems and Structures. By using materials that can adapt their shapes, sometimes hooked up to sensors and computers, engineers are starting to make objects they call "smart." These are the early ancestors of the smart materials that molecular manufacturing will make possible.
Today, we are used to having machines with a few visible moving parts. In cars, the wheels go around, the windshield wipers go back and forth, the antenna may go up and down, the seat belts, mirrors, and steering wheel may be motor-driven. Electric motors are fairly small, fairly inexpensive, and fairly reliable, so they are fairly common. The result is machines that are fairly smart and flexible, in a clumsy, expensive way.
In the Desert Rose scenario, we saw "tents" being assembled from trillions of submicroscopically small parts, including motors, computers, fibers, and struts. To the naked eye, materials made from these parts could seem as smooth and uniform as a piece of plastic, or as richly textured as wood or clothit is all a matter of the arrangement and appearance of the submicroscopic parts. These motors and other parts cost less than a trillionth of a dollar apiece. They can be quite reliable, and good design can make systems work smoothly even if 10 percent of a trillion motors burn out. Likewise for motor-controlling computers and the rest. The resulting machines can be very smart and flexible, compared to those of today, and inexpensive, too.
When materials can be full of motors and controllers, whole chunks of material can be made flexible and controllable. The applications should be broad.
Surfaces surround us, and human-made surfaceswalls, roofs, and pavementcover huge areas that matter to people. How can smart materials make a difference here?
The revolution in technology has come and gone, and you want to repaint your walls. Breathing toxic solvents and polluting water by washing brushes have passed into history, because paint has been replaced with smarter stuff. The mid-twentieth century had seen considerable progress in paints, especially the development of liquids that weren't quite liquidthey would spread with a brush, but didn't (stupidly) run and drip under their own weight. This was an improvement, but the new material, "paperpaint," is even more cooperative.
Paperpaint comes in a box with a special trowel and pen. The paperpaint itself is a dry block that feels a lot like a block of wood. Following the instructions, you use the pen to draw a line around the edge of the area you want to paint, putting an X in the middle to show where you want the paint to go on; the line is made of nontoxic disappearing ink, so you can slop it around without staining anything. Using the trowel, you slice off a hunk of paperpaintwhich is easy, because it parts like soft butter to the trowel, even though it behaves like a solid to everything else. Very high IQ stuff, that.
Next, you press the hunk against the X and start smoothing it out with the trowel. Each stroke spreads a wide swath of paperpaint, much wider than the trowel, but always staying within the inked line. A few swipes spreads it precisely to the edges, whereupon it smooths out into a uniform layer. Why doesn't it just spread itself? Experience showed that customers didn't mind the effort of making a few swipes and preferred the added control.
The paperpaint consists of a huge number of nanomachines with little wheels for rolling over one another and little sticky pads for clinging to surfaces. Each has a simple, stupid computer on board. Each can signal its neighbors. The whole mass of them clings together like an ordinary solid, but they can slip and slide in a controlled way when signaled. When you smooth the trowel over them, this contact tells them to get moving and spread out. When they hit the line, this tells them to stop. If they don't hit a line, they go a few handbreadths, then stop anyway until you trowel them again. When they encounter a line on all sides, word gets around, and they jostle around to form a smooth, uniform layer. Any that get scraped off are just so much loose dust, but they stick together quite well.
This paint-stuff doesn't get anything wet, doesn't stain, and clings to surfaces just tightly enough to keep it from peeling off accidentally. If some experimentally minded child starts digging with a stick, makes a tear, and peels some off, it can be smoothed back again and will rejoin as good as new. The child may eat a piece, but careful regulation and testing has ensured that this is no worse than eating plain paper, and safer than eating a colorful Sunday newspaper page.
Many refinements are possible. Swipes and pats of the trowel could make areas thicken or thin, or bridge small holes (no more Spackling!). With sufficiently smart paperpaint, and some way to indicate what it should do, you can have your choice of textures. Any good design will be washable, and a better design would shed dirt automatically using microscopic brushes.
Removal, of course, is easy: either you rip and peel (no scraping needed), or find that trowel, set the dial on the handle to "strip," and poke the surface a few times. Either way, you end up with a lump ready to pitch into the recycling bin and the same old wall you started with, bared to sight again.
Perhaps no product will ever be made exactly like the smart paint just described. It would be disappointing if something better couldn't be made by the time smart paint is technologically possible. Still, paperpaint gives a feel for some of the features to expect in the new smart products, features such as increased flexibility and better control. Without loading yet more capability into our paint (though there is no reason why one couldn't), let's take a look at some other smart properties one might want in a surface.
External walls, roofs, and paving surfaces are exposed to sunlight, and sunlight carries energy. A proven ability of molecular machinery is the conversion of sunlight to stored energy: plants do it every day. Even now, we can make solar cells that convert sunlight into electricity at efficiencies of 30 percent or so. Molecular manufacturing could not only make solar cells much cheaper, but could also make them tiny enough to be incorporated into the mobile building blocks of a smart paint.
To be efficient, this paint would have to be darkthat is, would have to absorb a lot of light. Black would be best, but even light colors could generate some power, and efficiency isn't everything. Once the paint was applied, its building blocks would plug together to pool their electrical power and deliver it through some standard plug. A thicker, tougher form of this sort of material could be used to resurface pavement, generate power, and transmit it over large distances. Since smart solar-cell pavement could be designed for improved traction and a similar roofing material could be designed for amazing leak-resistance, the stuff should be popular.
On a sunny day, an area just a few paces on a side would generate a kilowatt of electrical power. With good batteries (and enough repaved roads and solar-cell roofing), present demands for electrical power could be met with no coal burning, no oil imports, no nuclear power, no hydroelectric dams, and no land taken over for solar power generation plants.
The glow of fireflies and deep sea fish shows that molecular devices can convert stored chemical energy into light. All sorts of common devices show that electricity can be converted to light. With molecular manufacturing, this conversion can be done in thin films, with control over the brightness and color of each microscopic spot. This could be used for diffuse lightingceiling paperpaint that glows. With more elaborate control, this would yield the marvel (horror?) of video wallpaper.
With today's technology, we are used to displays that glow. With molecular manufacturing, it will be equally easy to make displays that just change color, like a printed page with mobile ink. Chameleons and flatfish change color by moving colored particles around, and nanomachines could do likewise. On a more molecular level, they could use tunable dyes. Live lobsters are a dark grayish green, but when cooked turn bright red. Much of this change results from the "retuning" of a dye molecule that is bound in a protein in the live lobster but released by heat. This basically mechanical change alters its color; the same principle can be used in nanomachines, but reversibly.
How a surface appears depends on how it reflects or emits light. Nanomachines and nanoelectronics will be able to control this within wide limits. They will be able to do likewise for sound, by controlling how a surface moves. In a stereo system, a speaker is a movable surface, and nanomachines are great for making things move as desired. Making a surface emit high-quality sound will be easy. Almost as easy will be surfaces that actively flex to absorb sound, so that the barking dog across the street seems to fade away.
Looking further at the human environment we find a lot of cloth and related materials, such as carpeting and shoes. The textile industry was at the cutting edge of the first industrial revolution, and the next industrial revolution will have its effects on textiles.
With nanotechnology, even the finest textile fibers could have sensors, computers, and motors in their core at little extra cost. Fabrics could include sensors able to detect light, heat, pressure, moisture, stress, and wear, networks of simple computers to integrate this data, and motors and other nanomechanisms to respond to it. Ordinary, everyday things like fabric and padding could be made responsive to a person's needschanging shape, color, texture, fit, and so forthwith the weather and a person's posture or situation. This process could be slow, or it could be fast enough to respond to a gesture. One result would be genuine one-size-fits-all clothing (give or take child sizes), perfectly tailored off the rack, warm in winter, cool and dry in summer; in short, nanotechnology could provide what advertisers have only promised. Even bogus advertising gives a clue to human desires.
Throughout history, the human race has pursued the quest for comfortable shoes. With fully adjustable materials, the seemingly impossible goal of having shoes that both look good and feel good should finally be achieved. Shoes could keep your feet dry, and warm except in the Arctic, cool except in the tropics, and as comfortable as they can be with a person stepping on them.
Adaptive structures will be useful in furniture. Today, we have furniture that adapts to the human body, but it does so in an awkward and incomplete manner. It adapts because people grab cushions and move them around. Or a chair adapts because it is a hinged contraption that grudgingly bends and extends in a few places to suit a small range of preferred positions. Occasionally, one sees furniture that allegedly gives a massage, but in fact only vibrates.
These limitations are consequences of the expense, bulkiness, clumsiness, and unreliability of such things as moving parts, motors, sensors, and computers today. With molecular manufacturing, it will be easy to make furniture from smart materials that can adapt to an individual human body, and to a person's changing position, to consistently give comfortable support. Smart cushions could also do a better job of responding to hints in the form of pats, tugs, and punches. As for massagea piece of furniture, no matter how advanced, is not the same as a masseuse. Still, a typical massage setting on a smart chair would not mean today's "vibrate medium vigorously," but something closer to "five minutes of shiatsu."
This tour through of the potential of smart matter has shown how we could get walls that look and sound as we wish, clothing, shoes, and furniture of greater comfort, and clean solar power. As one might expect, this just scratches the surface.
If you care to think of further applications, here are some ground rules: Components made by molecular manufacturing can be many tens of times stronger than steel, but materials made by plugging many components together will be weaker. For these, strengths in the range of cotton candy to steel seem achievable. The components will be sensitive to heat, and at high temperatures they will break down or burn. Many materials will be able to survive the temperature of boiling water, but only specialized designs would be oven-safe. Color, texture, and (usually) sound should be controllable. Surfaces can be smooth and tightly sealed (this takes some cleverness). Motions can be fairly fast. Power has to come from somewhere; good sources include electricity, stored chemical energy, and light. If nanomachines or smart materials are dunked in liquids, chemical energy can come from dissolved molecules; if they are in the open, energy can come from light; if they are sitting in one place, they can be plugged into a socket; if they are moving around in the dark, they can run on batteries for a while, then run down and quit. Within these limits, much can be accomplished.
"Smart" is a relative term. Unless you want to assume that people learn a lot more about intelligence and programming, it is best to assume that these materials will follow simple rules, like those followed by parts of drawings on computer screens. In these drawings, a picture of a rectangle can be commanded to sprout handles at its corners; pulling a handle stretches or shrinks the rectangle without distorting its right-angle corners. An object made of smart matter could do likewise in the real world: a box could be stretched to a different size, then made rigid again; a door in a smart-material wall could have its position unlocked, its frame moved a pace to the left, and then be returned to normal use.
There seems little reason to make bits of smart matter independent, self-replicating, or toxic. With care, smart matter should be safer than what it replaces because it will be better controlled. Spray paint gets all over things and contains noxious solvents; the paperpaint described above doesn't. This will be a characteristic difference, if we exercise our usual vigilance to encourage the production of things that are safe and environmentally sound.
It may be fun to discuss wondrous new products, but they won't make much difference in the world if they are too expensive. Besides, many people today don't have decent food, clothes, and a roof over their heads, to say nothing of fancy "nanostuff."
Costs matter. There is more to life than material goods, but without material goods life is miserable and narrow. If goods are expensive, people strive for them; if goods are abundant, people can turn their attention elsewhere. Some of us like to think that we are above a concern for material goods, but this seems more common in the wealthy countries. Lowering manufacturing costs is a mundane concern, but so are feeding people, housing them, and building sewage systems to keep them from dying of cholera and hepatitis. For all these reasons, finding ways to bring down production costs is a worthy goal.
For the poor, for the environment, and for the freeing of human potential, costs matter deeply. Let's take a closer look at the costs of molecular manufacturing.
Inflation produces the illusion that costs rise, when the real story is that the value of money is falling. In the short term, real costs usually don't change very quickly, and this can produce the illusion that costs are stable facts of nature, like the law of gravity or the laws of thermodynamics.
In the real world, though, most costs have been falling by a crucial measure: the amount of human labor needed to make things. People can afford more and more, because their labor, supplemented by machines, can produce more and more. This change is dramatic measured on a scale of centuries, and equally dramatic across the gulf between Third World and developed countries. The rise from Third World to First World standards of living has raised income (dropped the cost of labor time) by more than a factor of ten. What can molecular manufacturing do?
Larger cost reductions have happened, most dramatically in computers. The cost of a computer of a given ability has fallen by roughly a factor of 10 every seven years since the 1940s. In total, this is a factor of a million. If automotive technologies had done likewise, a luxury car would now cost less than one cent. (Personal computer systems still cost hundreds of dollars both because they are far more powerful than the giant machines of the 1940s and because the cost of buying any useful computer system includes much more than just the cost of a bare computer chip.)
Some costs apply to a kind of product, regardless of how many copies of it are made: these include design costs, technology licensing costs, regulatory approval costs, and the like. Other costs apply to each unit of a product: these include the costs of labor, energy, raw materials, production equipment, production sites, insurance, and waste disposal. The per-kind costs can become very low if production runs are large. If these costs stay high, it will be because people prefer new products for their new benefits, despite the costhardly cause for complaint.
The more basic and easier to analyze costs are per-unit costs. A picture to keep in mind here is of Desert Rose Industries, where molecular machinery does most of the work, and where products are made from parts that are ultimately made from simple chemical substances. Let's consider some cost components.
Energy: Manufacturing at the molecular scale need not use a lot of energy. Plants build billions of tons of highly patterned material every year using available solar energy. Molecular manufacturing can be efficient, in the sense that the energy needed to build a block of product should be comparable to the energy released in burning an equivalent mass of wood or coal. If this energy were supplied as electricity at today's costs, the energy cost of manufacturing would be something like a dollar per kilogram. We'll return to the cost of energy later.
Raw Materials: Molecular manufacturing won't need exotic materials as inputs. Plain bulk chemicals will suffice, and this means materials no more exotic than the fuels and feedstocks that are, for now, derived from petroleum and biomassgasoline, methanol, ammonia, and hydrogen. These typically cost tens of cents per kilogram. If bizarre compounds are used, they can be made internally. Rare elements could be avoided, but might be useful in trace amounts. The total quantity of raw materials consumed will be smaller than in conventional manufacturing processes because less will be wasted.
Capital Equipment and Maintenance: As we saw in the Desert Rose scenario, molecular manufacturing can be used to build all of the equipment needed for molecular manufacturing. It seems that this equipmenteverything from large vats to submicroscopic special-purpose assemblerscan be reasonably durable, lasting for months or years before being recycled and replaced. If the equipment were to cost dollars per kilogram, and produce many thousands of kilograms of product in its life, the cost of the equipment would add little to the cost of the product.
Waste Disposal: Today's manufacturing waste is dumped into the air, water, and landfills. There need be no such waste with molecular manufacturing. Excess materials of the kind now spewed into the environment could instead be completely recycled internally, or could emerge from the manufacturing process in pure form, ready for use in some other process. In an advanced process, the only wastes would be leftover atoms resulting from a bad mix of raw materials. Most of these leftover atoms would be ordinary minerals and simple gases like oxygen, the main "waste" from the molecular machinery of plants. Molecular manufacturing produces no new elementsif arsenic comes out, arsenic must have gone in, and the process isn't to blame for its existence. Any intrinsically toxic materials of this sort can at least be put in the safest form we can devise for disposal. One option would be to chemically bond it into a stable mineral and put it back where it came from.
Labor: Once a plant is operating, it should require little human labor (what people do with their time will change, unless factories are kept running as bizarre hobbies). Desert Rose Industries was run by two people, yet was described as producing large quantities of varied goods. The basic molecular-scale operations of manufacturing have to be automated, since they are too small for people to work on. The other operations are fairly simple and can be aided by equipment for handling materials and information.
Space: Even a manufacturing plant based on nanotechnology takes up room. It would, however, be more compact than familiar manufacturing plants, and could be built in some out-of-the-way place with inexpensive land. These costs should be small by today's standards.
Insurance: This cost will depend on the state of the law, but some comparisons can be made. Improved sensors and alarms could be made integral parts of products; these should lower fire and theft premiums. Product liability costs should be reduced by safer, more reliable products (we'll discuss the question of product safety further in Chapter 12). Employee injury rates will be reduced by having less labor input. Still, the legal system in the United States has shown a disturbing tendency to block every new risk, however small, even when this forces people to keep suffering old risks, which are sometimes huge. (The supply of lifesaving vaccines has been threatened in just this way.) When this happens, we kill anonymous people in the name of safety. If this behavior raises insurance premiums in a perverse way, it could discourage a shift to safer manufacturing technologies. Since such costs can grow or shrink independent of the real world of engineering and human welfare, they are beyond our ability to estimate.
Sales, Distribution, Training . . .: These costs will depend on the product: Is it as common as potatoes, and as simple to use? Or is it rare and complex, so that determining what you need, where to get it, and how to use it are the main problems? These service costs are real but can be distinguished from costs of the thing itself.
To summarize, molecular manufacturing should eventually lead to lower costs. The initial expense of developing the technology and specific products will be substantial, but the cost of production can be low. Energy costs (at present prices) and materials costs (ditto) would be significant, but not enormous. They were quoted on a per-kilogram basis, but nanotechnological products, being made of superior materials, will often weigh only a fraction of what familiar products do. (Ballast, were it needed, will be dirt-cheap.) Equipment costs, land costs, waste-disposal costs, and labor costs can be low by the very nature of the technology.
Costs of design, regulation, and insurance will depend strongly on human tastes and are beyond predicting. Basic products, like clothing and housing, can become inexpensive unless we do something to keep them costly. As the cost of improved safety falls, there will be less reason to accept unsafe products. Molecular manufacturing uses processes as controlled and efficient as the molecular processes in plants. Its products could be as inexpensive as potatoes. This may sound to good to be true (and there are downsides, as we'll discuss), but why shouldn't it be true? Shouldn't we expect large changes to come with the replacement of modern technology?
The above estimate made a conservative assumption about future costs: that energy and materials will cost then what they do now, before molecular manufacturing has become available. They won't, because lower costs lead to lower costs.
Let's say that making one kilogram of product by molecular manufacturing requires one dollar for a kilogram of raw materials and four dollars for a generous forty kilowatt-hours of energy. These are typical present-day prices for materials and electrical energy. Assume, for the moment, that other costs are small. One of the resulting five-dollar-per-kilogram products can be solar cell paint suitable for applying to paved roads. A layer of paint a few millionths of a meter thick would cost about five cents per square meter to produce, and would generate enough energy to make another square meter of paint in less than a week, even allowing for nighttime and moderate cloud cover. The so-called energy payback time would thus be short.
Let's assume that this smart paint costs as much to spread and hook up as it does to make, and that we demand that it pay for itself in a single month, so we charge ten cents per square meter per month. At that rate, the cost of solar energy from resurfaced roads would be roughly $0.004 per kilowatt hourless than a twentieth the energy cost assumed in the initial production-cost estimate. By itself, this makes the cost of production fall to a fraction of what it was before. Most of that remaining fraction consists of the cost of materials.
But the products of nanotechnology will mostly be made of carbon (if present expectations are any guide), and carbon dioxide is too abundant in the atmosphere these days. With energy so cheap, the atmosphere can be used as source of carbon (and of hydrogen, nitrogen, and oxygen). The price of carbon would be a few cents per kilogramroughly a twentieth the original price assumed for raw materials.
But now, both energy and raw materials are a twentieth the original price, and so the products become cheaper, including the energy-producing products and the raw-materialproducing (atmosphere-cleaning) products....
The above scenario is simple, but it seems realistic in its basic outlines: lower costs can lead to lower costs. How far this process can go is hard to estimate precisely, but it could go far indeed.
This argument will remind some readers of an old claimthat nuclear energy would lead to "power too cheap to meter." This assertion, attributed to the early nuclear era, has passed into folklore as a warning to be skeptical of technologists promising free goodies. Does the warning apply here?
Anyone claiming that something is free doesn't really understand economics. Using something always has a cost equal to the most valuable alternative use for the thing. Choosing one alternative sacrifices another, and that sacrifice is the cost. As economist Phillip K. Salin says, "There's no such thing as a free opportunity," since opportunities always cost (at least) time and attention. Nanotechnology will not mean free goodies.
But, one might argue, nuclear power hasn't even been inexpensive. If technologists could be so wrong back then, why believe a similar argument today? We are happy to report that the arguments aren't similar: any argument for "nuclear power too cheap to meter" had to be absurd even given the knowledge at the time, and our argument isn't.
Nuclear reactors boil water to make steam to turn turbines to turn generators to drive electrical power through power lines to transformers to local power lines to houses, factories, and so forth. The wildest optimist could never have claimed that nuclear power was a free source of anything more than heat, and a realist would have added in the cost of the reactor equipment, fuel, waste disposal, hazards, and the rest. Even our wild optimist would have had to include the cost of building the boiler, the turbines, the generators, the power lines, and the transformers, and the cost of maintenance on all these. These costs were known to be a major part of the cost of power, so free heat wouldn't have meant free power. Thus, the claim was absurd the day it was madenot merely in hindsight.
In the early 1960s, Alvin Weinberg, head of the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, was a strong advocate of nuclear power, and argued that it would provide "cheap energy." He was optimistic, but did his sums. First, he assumed that nuclear-power plants could be built a little more cheaply than coal-fired power plants of the same size. Then he assumed that the cost of fuel, waste disposal, operations, and maintenance for nuclear plants would be not much more than the cost of operations and maintenance alone for coal plants. Then he assumed that they might last for more than thirty years. Finally, he assumed that they would be publicly operated, tax free at low interest (which merely moves costs elsewhere) and that after thirty years the cost of the equipment would be written off (which is an accounting fiction). With all of that, he derived a power cost that "might be" as low as one half the cost of the cheapest coal-fired plant he mentions. He was clearly an optimist, but he didn't come close to arguing for power too cheap to meter.
People have cried "Wolf!" before about new technologies leading to overwhelming abundance. It was said of nuclear power, and of steam power before it, and perhaps of water wheels, the horse, the plough, and the chipped rock. Molecular manufacturing is different because it is a new way to make almost anything, including more of the equipment needed to do the manufacturing. There has never been anything quite like this before.
The basic argument for low cost production is this: Molecular manufacturing will be able to make almost anything with little labor, land, or maintenance, with high productivity, and with modest requirements for materials and energy. Its products will themselves be extremely productive, as energy producers, as materials collectors, and as manufacturing equipment. There has never been a technology with this combination of characteristics, so historical analogies must be used with care. Perhaps the best analogy is this: Molecular manufacturing will do for matter processing what the computer has done for information processing.
There will always be limiting costs, because
resourceswhether energy, matter, or design
skillalways have some alternative use. Costs will not fall
to zero, but it seems that they could fall very low indeed.
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Spelling words week 1
Sight words week 1
Brykyile Holden
Some of the puzzles that people list for the public get indexed by the search engines (like Google). Some people find those puzzles and cannot figure out how to make a puzzle of their own. So this page now has the navigation sidebar.
There are now buttons on the puzzle so that you can get a clean page, in either HTML or PDF, that you can use your browser's print button to print. The PDF format allows the web site to know how large a printer page is, and the fonts are scaled to fill the page. The PDF takes awhile to generate. Don't panic!


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1960 El Camino
How Gene Kendrick Fell Into a Burning Ring of Fire
If '59-'60 Chevy El Caminos aren't on your list of swoopiest pickups of all time, then you're sniffin' glue. After all, bed-ridden rides rarely sport such an excess of fins, chrome, and panache. And few tolerate the hot-rod treatment as well--which is why this '60 made a big impression on Gene Kendrick of Burbank, California.
As a veteran car nut and a longtime member of Burbank's historic Road Kings, Gene has owned over 200 cars--including '55-'57 Chevys and every good year of Corvette--and trucks such as a 392 Hemi-powered F-100 and a Willys with a blown Olds. But this Elco is something Gene describes simply as "a very special car"...not only for its innate Chevy-supplied lines, but for its 348-with-a-four-speed drivetrain. And not just for a unique engine/trans combo, but for the right look. Even from blocks away, it was the stance, the Americans, and the flames that caught our eyes and screamed, "Hey, this is a perfect car for the paint-'n'-body issue!" Gene's the first to admit that this is one car he bought instead of built, but we'll argue that he sure knows how to buy 'em.
Gene's not real big on flames, but even he has to admit that the vintage-looking blaze graphics add big-time flare to an already-standout El Camino. The bright blue pinstriping really makes them pop--too bad we have no idea who did the work. The impossible-to-replace stainless trim has been refurbished for added sparkle.
Inside you'll find a pristine resto dash with the ever-cool stock-type Impala steering wheel and Auto Meter's Monster Tach and oil pressure and temp gauges. The shifter is a Hurst unit, the upholstery is period-perfect tuck 'n'roll, and tunes shriek through Blaupunkt speakers mounted in the ample room behind the seat. The interior window frames have also been chromed.
Sorry, not a 409, but close--its little brother 348 with a rare '61 409 factory aluminum intake under a fresh Edelbrock carb. The remainder of the engine upgrades are dress-up items that gleam in the original paint on the firewall. We dig the stock generator.
The '59s had the cateye taillights, rounder fins, and a different grille treatment, and they are considered more desirable that the twin-taillight '60s. Still, this is a look we can get used to in a hurry. It there anything Gene would like to change about the car? "If I had built the car myself I probably wouldn't have added the flames, and I would have used red steelies and stock hubcaps. But it looks so good now, I wouldn't change a thing." CC


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Here's a chance to meet the Plus team and some fascinating maths at the same time!
Our cities are filled with buildings, roads, cars, buses, trains, bikes, parks and gardens. They are crisscrossed with power, water, sewage and transport systems. They are built by engineers, architects, planners, technologists, doctors, designers and artists. Our cities are shaped by our environment, our society and our culture. And each and every part is built on mathematics.
Join Rachel Thomas, co-editor of Plus, in a public lecture exploring the maths in our cities. Rachel is also the Public Engagement Officer for Maths in the City. She is working with Marcus du Sautoy and Marcus' Marvellous Mathemagicians (M3), a group of volunteer maths students, to create walking tours of Oxford and London that will highlight the maths hiding in our urban environments.
The lecture will take place on the 31st of January between 5:30pm and 6:30pm at the Centre for Mathematical Sciences (CMS), Clarkson Road, Cambridge, UK. Admission to the lecture is free but pre-booking is essential — see here for more information.


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PART ONE: This week Megan is back at the Skirted Roundtable! Please join us as we first discuss Interior Design: where we get our inspiration for a new job and how we come up with ideas for a room's design. The three of us weigh in on what steps we take when we start with a new client.
Wednesday, July 15, 2009
Interior Design Inspirations AND Blog Rankings!
PART ONE: This week Megan is back at the Skirted Roundtable! Please join us as we first discuss Interior Design: where we get our inspiration for a new job and how we come up with ideas for a room's design. The three of us weigh in on what steps we take when we start with a new client.
27 comments:
- Lauren said...
I'm undecided about Blogrankings right now... At first I was feeling a lot of pressure to post more because it is NOT FUN to watch your ranking drop. hahah And really, with all that's going on, the last thing I wanted was more pressure to post!!
But, (I think it's been a week or 2) now I'm a little more comfortable with it & it's not really on my mind as much. I'm still undecided though as it does take my focus a bit off of just blogging to blog to more of a competitive thing (more competitive with myself because I realize that the more I post, the more readers I have.) ... so we'll see
Also I do really like google analytics & just started it about a month ago. It was an eye-opener because I honestly thought I had like only 50-75 people reading a day (thinking of readers in relation to comments) and it's nice to know more people are reading something you put so much time into.
ok, sorry for the book!!
- July 15, 2009 at 11:50 AM
- Lauren said...
ok and now on the design inspiration post- really enjoyed this one. I'm totally with you on the fabric as a starting point. I usually know in my head just from initial research- roughly "sofa here, 2 chairs there, bench here, etc" and then I create a fabric plan from there. It usually starts with one inspiration fabric (which like Joni said might end up on a pillow because of cost or because I tend to use lots of solid linens for larger pieces) and from there I build it all out in 1 sitting. I have every pillow, chair, sofa fabric picked out and create a plan from it. Then I go home & pick out the actual pieces for the fabrics to go on. (If I think a client might be the type to want 2 options to choose from, I'll create 2 separate fabric plans & I usually have some choices in each plan because I've found people like to make choices.)
And if there's an item in the room that's staying/ it's not a blank slate, then I take a photo of the item to the fabric store with me & work it from there just as if it were the inspiration fabric.
ok, another book- sorry for the long comments but I just get so chatty after these things- ha!
- July 15, 2009 at 12:33 PM
- Julia @ Hooked on Houses said...
What an interesting discussion! I know some people complained about some being too long, but I listen while I'm uploading photos and it passes the time wonderfully for me. Thanks!
I think the Blogrankings thing is kind of fun because we're all friends (I know most of the bloggers on there so far, anyway). You can't take it too seriously. We all have good and bad traffic days and weeks. It's great to see how much traffic everyone's getting in general, tho. Makes me think design blogs are really growing.
I was planning to take a blogcation next week while we're out of town, so I'll probably plunge down to the bottom. Oh, well! :-)
I'm really confused about Google pagerank. Mine was at 6 for a long time. Then suddenly it plunged to 3, even though my traffic was better than ever. I started a new blog (Beach Cottage Love) in May, on a lark, and only update it a few times a week. It gets only 300 or so visitors a day. But guess what pagerank Google gives it? A 3. The same as my main blog. So it's hard for me to take PR seriously if it's saying both are equal in any way.
Thanks again for the conversation!
- July 15, 2009 at 12:40 PM
- Unknown said...
Hi Julia - thanks for your comment and for your positive encouragement about the length of the podcasts!
Regarding Google Page rank, my understanding is that it's not based on hits but on the quality of the links to the site. So, while who knows why HoH dropped down - could have been something that their algorithm picked up as suspect even if it's not - but I would suspect that your Beach blog ranks high is it's connection to your main blog plus any others links in. A smaller secondary blog can ride on the coattails of the main blog, in a way. Our skirted rountable blog has a PR of 4 already, even though it's new. But, between our 3 main blogs linking in, and linking frequently, plus all the readers who have so kindly linked to us, it's moved up quickly. My own blog just went from 4 to 5, and was 4 forever, but it could drop back, as it did once before. And you might see HoH pop back up overnight. I think the key is that none of these ranking/tracking systems are perfect. But overall, they give an idea of where things stand.
- July 15, 2009 at 12:57 PM
- Unknown said...
Lauren - thanks for listening! Interesting to note that you also start with the fabric. Sounds like a decorator trend!
And, if you're not using a hit counter or tracker, check into Statcounter.com or Sitemeter.com. Both will give you hit by hit info like search terms, etc. On a detail level, it can be very interesting info.
- July 15, 2009 at 12:59 PM
- Things That Inspire said...
I have found blogranking to be absolutely fascinating. I do not accept any advertising on my blog, and write my blog as a creative outlet and as a way to share ideas and bounce ideas off like minded people. To me, it was really gratifying to learn that I actually had a decent volume of readers; I historically just looked at my numbers through sitemeter, which is interesting but does not track unique viewers.
Also, I see it as friendly competition, and it is fascinating to see what impacts the numbers. Posting more often seems to help a lot. I went on vacation for the past week, with no internet access, and when I came back my unique visitor number was about half of what it has been over the past few weeks.
I was wondering whether blogranking might be a scary thing for a blog that is advertising, but does not pull in the numbers of some of the other blogs. Even if those numbers are relatively good, how many blogs can pull in the kind of numbers that the top 5 are pulling in? Yes, it is probably the bloggers who are paying attention, but any curious advertiser can see the link on any of the blogs participating, and see what is going on.
Also, wanted to let you know that I asked blogrankings to create a new category for home and design, given that so many of the 'lifestyle' bloggers are home and decor related. They said they will do it, but it hasn't happened yet!
- July 15, 2009 at 5:20 PM
- Cristin // Simplified Bee said...
Great discussions! I am new to the blogging world, so the ranking site is a little intimidating. I try not to focus on the stats, but sometimes they get distracting.
- July 15, 2009 at 7:11 PM
- Terry said...
It's really nice that y'all explained "the secret of the inspiration fabric." Knowing the secret will not make me a designer. But we're better clients because we know what is going on.
For us as design consumers working with a pro, it was an "inspiration fabric" about color rather than style. Dark reds, blues, greens, oranges on a black background. We took the fabric everywhere, just everywhere. It was the constant in everything we did.
It wasn't what we expected; but we used the inspiration fabric for a bed skirt that continues to make us happy.
- July 15, 2009 at 9:22 PM
- CarolAnne - camdesign said...
Time span of each talking blog should be the time it takes to get each of your points of view explained, I listen while doing floor plans on my laptop, two birds with one stone...
How do I begin designing projects, with my questionnaire for both clients if it is man and woman, it has every question I can think of on it and then some. Then I measure the room, measure pieces that are going to stay, work out the paint color if it is going to stay, take pictures of everything and everywall and then over all pictures for the before pictures, pictures of all the rooms off the room I am working on. Take paint, carpet, flooring, tile and counter top or ganite samples back to my office... I then go back to the design studio or my home office and do the floor plan (while listening to the skirted round table)...lol...then working with the softseating and casegoods they have picked or have discribled work on the space planning, once the space planning is done, I will go through the fabrics picking the base fabrics and area rug, then pull out all the fabrics I would like to use for pillows and maybe a accent chair, ottoman etc. Now I will by scale work on casegoods and what they should look like by the clients questionnaire and the other rooms in the home, the fireplace etc...
Once this is all worked out I will pull in the lamps, artwork and accessories that work...
Now I am ready to do a presentation of the whole room from A to Z...the average time for all of this to happen is 3 to 7 days...
I just think I wrote a book, lol
Oh well, to late, I'm done...
Regards, CAM
PS I do not have a good enough blog to be rated...I do it for fun not a way to get clients so I must admit I do not care to be rated...to much pressure, I am to busy with clients...
- July 15, 2009 at 10:37 PM
- Angela at Giannetti Home: Design Online said...
Once again a fab post. I too start with fabric! I love fabric and can't imagine not it being an inspiration. I feel like it helps the room take shape. And it is such a relief to hear that all clients are the same expecting you to be a miracle worker with quick answers, and as Linda said come in with a flurry of feathers. I love that visual, it is so true!
- July 16, 2009 at 7:19 AM
- Mrs. Blandings said...
A great discussion. Completely agree that Analytics is a terrific resource for all the reasons you mentioned. Blogrankings? I can see the advantage if you are really evaluating the success of your posts, but I fear it would make one focus on gaining numbers instead of pursuing an interest.
- July 16, 2009 at 9:37 AM
- Velvet and Linen said...
As a designer, I loved hearing about your design process. I tend to start with pictures. Once I understand the look my client is going for I either start with fabrics or a carpet. Starting with a carpet can be a great way to create a whole color scheme.
It was nice to hear that I'm not the only one who has walked in a home and not known what to do.
I'm actually working on a post about that feeling of anxiety I get when that happens.
Thank you again for your honesty.
- July 16, 2009 at 12:57 PM
- La Maison Fou said...
Well girls,
Another show down! This one was particularly interesting to me as I like to start with color, then fabrics, accessories, case goods and special pieces. Thanks for the post!
- July 16, 2009 at 1:34 PM
- Cindy said...
Haha, I enjoyed my spot at #1 on blogrankings for more than a month until all of you top bloggers joined and knocked me down to #10! Then I wanted to leave but decided to stay for now. I have really weird things happening with Technorati lately. I was in the top 10K and now I'm down to 22,000. I have no idea how I could drop that much in a day!
I think all these ranking can drive you crazy! I'm just going to keep on blogging on not get so wrapped up in how many people are reading my blog! I think it will drive me insane if I don't.
- July 16, 2009 at 9:50 PM
- Unknown said...
Cindy - thanks for corroborating my opinion about Technorati. The way people fluctuate to widely is incredible. I once went from 44,000 to 90,000 within a one week period. No idea why... Oh well.
- July 17, 2009 at 8:51 AM
- vicki archer said...
Thank you girls - a great discussion. I am a fan of Google Analytics for all the reasons that you voiced. Blogger Rankings I have not had time to investigate and probably won't for the simple reason that I am finding it hard enough to keep up with what I am posting now let alone if I started to feel the need to post more! xv
- July 17, 2009 at 10:09 AM
- katiedid said...
TIme to check out google analytics! Sounds like some good info there. I have only been able to post a couple of times a week lately...so blogrankings is a bit depressing...but I will hang in for awhile! Especially if they add a new design section.
Thanks for another great podcast! Both of them!
- July 17, 2009 at 1:25 PM
- Jeannine | The Small and Chic Home said...
Well, I just joined Blogrankings after listening to you chat about it. I don't need to be highly ranked. My motivations are purely selfish...to get more advice about the projects on my blog!
Now, I should say that I have been blogging for many years for my job and have been a diehard Google Analytics user. The day we realized my blog was getting more traffic than my office's website was a great one - for both my confidence and my reputation in the office (people went from thinking it was a fad to trying to take advantage of the opportunity I had created to interact with our audience).
I have one suggestion about the average time on site. A lot of people randomly hop around Blogger using the "random" button. Those visits might not be long.
On top of that, I have never bothered to track down how readers using the RSS feed might affect that average time on site stat. Perhaps the few seconds my blog reader spends retrieving your post is tracked.
- July 17, 2009 at 7:36 PM
- Unknown said...
Hi Joni, Megan and Linda
I listened in to your 'Blogrankings' podcast. I agree with Joni that Google Analytics is very comprehensive and I find it like a game of Suduko trying to figure it all out. I find now that I have been blogging for several years that I am getting an equal amount of hits from people searching me through keywords as I am getting from referring sites. I also experimented in seeing if the number of times I post in a week had any reflection on the traffic I got to my Blog and was surprised to find that whether I posted 4 times per week or once every 2 weeks it didn't make a difference to the amount of traffic to my Blog. I was surprised by that and can only put it down to the fact that readers are coming to me by keyword searches??? But in the end I have found that the most important thing for me in Blogging is to enjoy writing my posts and connecting with my readers.
You all are doing a great job...keep it up.
Kindest Regards
PS I find that Technorati sucks big time....and maybe that is because I use Windows Live Writer to compose my posts?? Technorati does not show the links that Google Alert shows for my Blog and it has been stuck for the last several months. I found the change in their reporting when Blogger switched to Google.
- July 18, 2009 at 10:37 AM
- Susan (Between Naps On The Porch.net) said...
Hi Joni, Megan and Linda,
Another great Roundtable...loved hearing where you guys start when designing a room for a client. :-)
- July 18, 2009 at 1:57 PM
- Terry said...
I didn't mean (see my post above) that telling folks about the use of inspiration fabric is like a magician explaining his tricks.
But very few folks have worked with pro's. Most folks don't know how valuable a tool the inspiration fabric is; how it simplifies the process; how it's a trick (but not a trick) of the trade. (Checking to make sure you can get the furniture through the door is another non-secret trick.)
So, it's great that y'all talk about it.
The more your clients know about the process, the better clients they well be and the more fun they'll have.
- July 18, 2009 at 6:11 PM
- Bargain Decorating with Laurie said...
Oh My! I guess there are advantages to being on the bottom! I know I couldn't handle the pressure of trying to stay on top or even in the top 50, and I sure couldn't handle being in the bottom 1,000, so I think I'll just continue to live in ignorant bliss! Enjoyed listening to both pod casts. Thanks. laurie
- July 18, 2009 at 6:19 PM
- Room Service ~ Decorating 101 said...
Great post ! I always start with the floor plan and then I want to know how the client wants the room to feel...then I go into the fabrics. As for the blog ranking...I think that was the down fall of rms so I am staying clear of it, for now anyway. Thanks
- July 19, 2009 at 6:07 AM
- Material Girls said...
I loved this roundtable discussion-I can certainly identify! It's so true about clients expecting you to walk in and tell them every single thing you envision for the space. It makes me so nervous! So nice to hear that you all (being the more experienced designers) feel this way too. I always compare a consultation to a pop quiz- you never know what you will be asked on the spot! I have had clients who want as much design advice in an hour that they can get- what they don't realize though is that an entire room can't be designed in an hour no matter how good of a designer you are!! Real design takes time and it's a whole thought process- Oy, please forward this roundtable discussion on to all of my clients!
- July 19, 2009 at 6:33 PM
- LIBERTY POST EDITOR said...
I'm sleeping over in Joni's camp on the universe of rankings. I would love, love, love, love to hit #1 on blogrankings...even if it was just 1 time...not to knock my blog friends down and 'steal their blogebrity crown' (as I joke about), but rather to validate my own self and the effort and passion I do put into Liberty Post. I'd also love to rub some noses in it...namely some male family members who say...'how much money are you making?' I know this does now convert into dollars...but it is a powerful kind of recognition I can use at the dinner table.
- July 25, 2009 at 5:58 PM
- LIBERTY POST EDITOR said...
Oh..and I forgot to mention: Your radio show is so informative that I never listen without my notebook and pen in hand. Taking notes...learning....love it!
- July 25, 2009 at 6:00 PM
- City Living Girl said...
LOVE your discussion on blog ratings etc & statistics for the design field. My question is about feedblitz vs. email subscribers etc. Is there a certain reader that you prefer to offer your readers and do they interfere with each other?
- July 31, 2009 at 11:38 AM


text:
CHOKING HAZARD. Small parts; Not for children under 3 years.
- Please handle with care and store out of the reach of children younger than 15 years old.
- This product may contain small parts. May be harmful if swallowed.
- This product may contain parts that have sharp points and edges. Please handle it carefully to avoid getting injured.
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