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View Gallery
- Condo
- 3 Bedrooms
- Sleeps 8
- 3 Baths
- Community View
- Super Summer Savings in Steamboat Springs
- Promo Code: SUMMER
- Eligible Stay Dates: 05/21/2020 - 11/26/2020Bookable Dates: 08/29/2019 - 08/31/2020Required stay from 1 to 28 Night
Timber Run 212 is a spacious three bedroom plus loft condo. The unit features a fully-equipped kitchen with breakfast bar and dining area with large table. The living area has comfortable furnishings, vaulted ceilings, a cozy gas fireplace and access to the private balcony, perfect for enjoying the fresh mountain air. The condo has 2 flat screen TVs, a DVD player and free Wi-Fi for your enjoyment.
The master bedroom features a King bed and attached bathroom. The second bedroom has a Queen bed and access to a full bathroom. There is a double bed in the third bedroom and two twin beds in the loft. The unit has a third full bathroom. This unit does not have a sofa sleeper.
Amenities include an outdoor heated pool, three outdoor hot tubs, a sauna, a BBQ area with picnic tables, clubhouse, business center, tennis courts, laundry facilities, ski storage and complimentary shuttle services during the winter to take guests to the ski area, shopping, dining and other area activities.
This condo has parking for 2 vehicles and is unable to accommodate additional vehicles.Read More
Pool/Hot Tub/Sauna
Bedroom Features
Bedding information
Extra Sleeping Area
Bathroom Feature
Interior Feature
Parking Feature
Exterior Features
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Cross Country Skiing
- Dog Sledding
- Downhill/Alpine Skiing
- Fine Dining
- Fishing
- Golf
- Grocery Store
- Hiking
- Horseback Riding
- Hospital
- Hot Air Ballooning
- Hunting
- Ice Skating
- Kayaking
- Mountain Biking
- Museums
- Nature Trails
- Pharmacy
- Pub/Bar
- Rafting
- River Tubing
- Road Biking
- Rock Climbing (outdoor)
- Shopping
- Sledding/Tubing
- Snowboarding
- Snowmobiling
- Spa
- State Park
- Tennis
- Yolo/Paddleboarding
- Check-in Office Name:
- Timber Run Front Desk
- 2015 Walton Creek Road
- Steamboat Springs
- Colorado, 80487
- Check In Time: 04:00 PM
- Check Out Time: 10:00 AM
- Navigate to Check In Office
- Navigate to Home
- Office Phone: 970-879-7000
- Reservation Phone: 800-525-5502
- Check-In Phone: 970-879-7000
- Maintenance Phone: 970-879-7000
- After Hours Phone: 970-879-7000
Read More
- Office Hours: Front Desk Hours: 8am-5pm (Hours may vary by season)
- After Hours Check-In Procedures: Electronic Lock Boxes with check-in packets loaded for after- hours arrivals. If you plan on arriving after-hours please contact us before we close on the day of arrival. Additionally, Wyndham Vacation Rentals employs On-Call, After Hours Maintenance Staff and Security Personnel for check-in Assistance after hours.


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Welcome to the CRG Discussion Forum!Forum registration problems: Make sure you enter your email correctly and you check your spam box first. *Then* email KurtS2@gmail for help.Classified ads are not allowed on the forum.
I thought I had posted here about my 69 Camaro SSRS from France.VIN # is 124379N550140Oct 68 Build in the Norwood (N) OH Plant, shipped to France as Overseas Sales.Timmy
Bentley is right.. that VIN would be very near the end of November '68 production.

subset: commoncrawl


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Yesterday, I only had time to view only one session, and it was entitled "Tweets, Links, Pins, and Posts: Break Down Genealogical Brick Walls with Social Media" by Lisa Alzo.
Lisa was her usual friendly self as she led us through the world of social media, and told us of her life as a writer of genealogy.
I got the impression that sometimes she was harried by all of the things that are out there these days as far as social media is concerned, but she said that if we pick two or three platforms to work with, we will become more comfortable to work with them.
For myself, the three platforms that I use are blogs, Goggle+ Hangouts On Air, and Facebook.
So what do you use?
Today, I will watch two sessions, and they are -
At 3:00 p.m. EST, "Information Overload: Managing Online Searches and Their Results" by Josh Taylor.
At 8:00 p.m. EST, "Five Ways to Do Genealogy in Your Sleep" by Deborah Gamble.
Remember, you can always watch these at a later date because they will be posted on the RootsTech website after the conference ends today at https://rootstech.org.
If you would like to read about the talks given yesterday, there are handouts available online at https://rootstech.org/about/syllabus-materials
And even though I'm not there in person, it's still great to be able to participate from afar!
So, Happy Viewing to all, and thank you, RootsTech, for making this possible!
Elizabeth Lapointe


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3 September 2014
07:59 | Posted by TRACEY O
Every time I use these feather dies I am struck by the detail in them! Embossing after cutting has become a must.
Products Used:
Bazzill Basics Cardstock:
10-1001E Bazzill White
S4-428 Feathers
S5-207 Labels Thirty Three
Other Materials Used:
7 dots patterned paper
Silver trim
Labels: Bazzill, General Cards, Spellbinders | 0 comments
1 September 2014
12:16 | Posted by TRACEY O
With spring just around the corner, here is a lovely floral layout, the perfect theme to mark the coming of warmer weather.
Materials Used:
Bazzill Basics Paper:
10-1001 Bazzill white
5-510E Parakeet
S4-430 Foliage Flourish
S5-211 Romantic Rectangles Two
S4-388 Stately Circles
S5-086 Bitty Blossoms
S4-351 Spiral Blossom One
S4-328 Foliage
Other Materials Used:
ManorHouse Creations papers
Cotton Candy Ranger Liquid Pearls
Vintage lace
Created by Design Team member-ALICIA
Labels: Bazzill, Layouts, Spellbinders | 0 comments
31 August 2014
07:35 | Posted by TRACEY O
Another fabulous layout from Alicia.
Materials Used:
Bazzill Basics Paper:
10-1001 Bazzill white
4-406E Chiffon
S6-011 5x7 Reflective Moment
S4-092 Stars Five
S5-212 Belly Band One
S4-388 Stately Circles
Other Materials Used:
ManorHouse Creations papers
White Opal Ranger Liquid Pearls
May arts twine
chipboard title
Created by Design Team Member ALICIA
chipboard title
Created by Design Team Member ALICIA
Labels: Bazzill, Layouts, Spellbinders | 0 comments
30 August 2014
07:40 | Posted by TRACEY O
I wanted to thank a friend for all the encouragement she has given me over the past couple of years. A card just didn't seem enough, so I applied the idea to a little canvas instead. This canvas can either be hung on a wall or sat on a shelf.
Bazzill Basics Cardstock:
6-673D Lilac Sugar
4-406E Chiffon
LF-006 Wonderful Wings
S5-191 Decorative Labels Twenty Eight
S4-116 Standard Circles Small
Other Materials Used:
Acrylic Paint
Studio 490 Crackled Texture Paste
FabScraps patterned paper
KaiserCraft flowers
Stampers Anonymous stamps
Ranger Stencil - Honeycomb
Labels: Bazzill, Friendship, Off The Page, Spellbinders | 0 comments
29 August 2014
07:26 | Posted by TRACEY O
I wanted to include a little home made something in my daughter's lolly bags for her party and came up with these. They're little books, and probably not much good for writing stories in, but perfect for a couple of phone numbers and small enough to fit in a handbag too.
Products Used:
Bazzill Basics Cardstock:
3-336E Pollen
7-7116E Simon
1-125E Precious
S4-116 Standard Circles Small
S4-125 Classic Scallop Circles Small
Other Materials Used:
Various scraps of patterned paper and cardstock
Ribbon or twine
Labels: Bazzill, Off The Page, Spellbinders | 0 comments
28 August 2014
08:00 | Posted by TRACEY O
Spellbinders dies can be used to create stencils that can be used to mask areas off when working with Jac Paper and glitter.
Products Used:
Bazzill Basics Cardstock:
10-1023E White OP
10-1037E Blackbird
S2-048 Sprigs
S5-172 A2 Curved Matting Basics B
Other Materials Used:
Jac paper
Cosmo Cricket Tiny Text
Step 1
Cut a piece of Jac paper to the correct size and adhere it to a piece of cardstock. Cut out the centre of the backing paper with a Curved Matting Basics B die.
Step 2
Replace the Curved Matting Basics shape in the centre of the exposed Jac paper, and sprinkle yellow glitter onto the edge. Burnish the glitter well to ensure adhesion between each step - this will ensure there are no sticky bits left where subsequent glitter colours will stick.
Step 3
Remove the Curved Matting Basics shape and cut a couple of Sprig shapes from it. Apply these to the exposed centre of the card front, and sprinkle pink glitter onto the Jac paper. Burnish well.
Step 4
Remove the sprig shapes and apply blue/green glitter. Use this to complete a card.
Tutorial created by Design Team member-TERESA
Labels: Bazzill, General Cards, Spellbinders, Tutorials | 0 comments
27 August 2014
08:22 | Posted by TRACEY O
Products Used:
Bazzill Basics Paper:
10-1001 Bazzill White
1-105E Petalsoft
5-510E Parakeet
S5-214 Scalloped borders 3
S4-371 Les Papillions
S5-086 Bitty Blossoms
S2-048 Sprihs
S2-067 Create-a-rose
Other Materials Used:
Bo Bunny papers and ribbon
Step 1
Cut a strip of cardstock to 6x12 inches. Arrange two border dies together at one end, and tape in place before die cutting.
Step 2
From the opposite end mark intervals at 10, 6 and 10cm, then score and fold.
Step 3
Create a box from the remaining strip of cardstock trimmed to 14.5x23cm. Mark and score lines at 4.5cm, then 14cm, then another 4.5 across the long end, and 4.5, 5.5 and 4.5cm along the adjacent side. Cut notches in the corners as shown, then glue to he tabs to the inside of the box. Adhere inside the bag.
Step 6
Cut narrow strips and join together for the handle. Adhere the ends to the sides of the box.
Step 7
Hold bag closed and mark a spot for the notch to hold it closed, using the die cut pattern as the hook.Open bag and cut the notch. (note you may like to wait until you have added patterned paper. Go ahead and decorate with patterned paper and a Spellbinders Create-a-rose.
Created by Design Team Member - ALICIA
Labels: Bazzill, Off The Page, Spellbinders, Tutorials | 0 comments
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Two monkeys clipart
You can get acquainted with the presented collection of Two monkeys clipart to choose suitable ideas for your business or design interface.
Today we have 23 cliparts and vectors for this category.
Advice on how to make a good presentation
Make sure that your text is large enough
People often go wrong as to what a PowerPoint presentation is for. Let's provide you with a few key rules about presentation text, its size and its content.
- Ensure your text is large and legible enough: you can easily test this by standing further from the presentation and check whether you can still clearly see and comprehend to the content
- The slides are rather attention callers than actual content providers therefore their text is meant to be larger than the average text.
- Do not use Caps Lock to further grow your text size unless you really want to call attention to something. Words written with capital letters only are harder and more tiring to read.


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Steven Tyler's Former Girlfriend Tells The Story Of Their Abortion
Date: May 25, 2011
Contact: Andre Kim
Aerosmith singer and "American Idol" judge Steven Tyler has written and spoken about the son he lost to abortion in the 1970s. The baby's mother was Julia Holcomb, a young woman who was 16 years old when she became Tyler's legal ward and went to live with him in Boston.
After Kevin Burke, full-time pastoral associate of Priests for Life and co-founder of Rachel's Vineyard, wrote about Tyler's abortion experience in a piece published May 4 in National Review Online, Julia contacted Burke to say that for years, she has been looking for a way to respond to the many published accounts of their relationship, most recently in Tyler's autobiography, "Does the Noise in My Head Bother You?" The compassion with which Burke wrote about Tyler as a post-abortive father prompted her to entrust her own story to his care.
On May 24, in an essay published on LifeSiteNews.com, the former Julia Holcomb gives a behind-the-scenes look at life with a rock legend, including a harrowing account of a near-fatal apartment fire and the abortion.
"My National Review article on post-abortive father Steven Tyler and his high visibility as an Idol judge, with a new autobiography and song just released, provide a providential opportunity for Julia to share her experience of the dramatic events that took place during her three-year, live-in relationship with Tyler," Burke said. "This is an intense and at times frightening and disturbing journey … but in the end it is an inspirational story of hope and healing. Julia is a woman of great courage and faith and it has truly been a blessing and a privilege to be entrusted with her story."
Father Frank Pavone, National Director of Priests for Life, said "Julia's story of redemption and the incredible turnaround she has seen in her life should serve as a powerful witness to women who are still struggling with their own abortions."
"Forgiveness and healing are available for all women and men who have had their children aborted, for every abortionist, for every abortion clinic worker," Father Pavone said. "Julia's story should serve as an invitation for each one of them to face the truth about abortion, and to seek healing."
Read Julia's incredible story here
Burke's original story on Steven Tyler can be found here
Priests for Life is the nation's largest Catholic pro-life organization dedicated to ending abortion and euthanasia. For more information, visit Priests for Life.


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Fatty dairy linked to early cancer death
People who are diagnosed with breast cancer and then go on to consume a steady diet of high-fat dairy foods increase their chances of dying years earlier than those who consumed low- to nonfat milk products, according to a new study by Kaiser Permanente researchers.
The study, published Thursday in the Journal of the National Cancer Institute, is considered the first to look at the differences in high-fat and low-fat dairy intake following a breast cancer diagnosis on long-term survival.
The results don't suggest that people eliminate dairy from their diet entirely. "But it can't hurt to alter consumption of higher-fat milk to low-fat or nonfat," said Candyce Kroenke, staff scientist with the Kaiser Permanente Division of Research in Oakland and lead author of the study.
For the study, researchers looked at the dietary habits of nearly 1,900 women, mostly Northern California Kaiser patients, who were diagnosed with relatively early-stage, invasive breast cancer between 1997 and 2000.
Those who consumed one or more servings per day of high-fat dairy products - such as whole milk and cream, condensed or evaporated milk, ice cream and custards - had a 49 percent increased risk of dying from breast cancer during the 12-year follow-up than those patients who limited their amount of high-fat products, the study found. They also had a 64 percent higher risk of dying from any cause during that period, most often from cardiovascular diseases.
Estrogen in milk
The study's authors theorized estrogen levels are elevated in milk products produced in Western countries because dairy cows are often pregnant to maximize production, and pregnancy elevates their estrogen levels.
Most breast cancer tumors are sensitive to the estrogen hormone, meaning the estrogen causes the cancer to grow. Researchers believe that the higher the fat content of the milk product, the higher the concentration of estrogen.
"It raises concerns that the way we produce milk should lead people to consider alternatives, especially if they have an elevated risk of breast cancer or if they have breast cancer and are trying to alter their lifestyles," Kroenke said.
Industry disagrees
Officials from the Dairy Council of California agreed that switching from full-fat to low- or nonfat milk products may be a healthful choice for some people, but they questioned and disagreed with the study's conclusions.
"They've showed an association basically between whole milk consumption and deaths from breast cancer. That is very, very far from proving one causes the other," said Lori Hoolihan, nutrition research specialist with the Dairy Council of California.
Hoolihan said the researchers could not have accounted for every lifestyle or environmental factor that could contribute to increased mortality from breast cancer or other causes. She also said the amount of estrogen found in a cup of milk is so much less than in the human that it could not pose a risk.
But she said the variety of milk products allows people to make choices. "You don't want to give them up altogether because you're missing out on a huge nutrient package," she said.
Dr. Susan Kutner, chairwoman of Kaiser Permanente Northern California's Breast Care Task Force, said more research is needed on the potential link between high-fat dairy products and breast cancer. She said dietary studies are difficult to do because they rely on participants to report their food and drink consumption.
Still, Kutner, who was not involved in the research, considered the study to be scientifically rigorous and said she would use it in discussions with her patients.
Eating more vegetables
Kaiser patient Denise Pangelinan did not participate in the study nor was she familiar with the research, but she cut back on dairy products almost immediately after her breast cancer diagnosis in October 2011.
"When I got sick, the only thing I could control at that point was my diet, my attitude and exercise," said Pangelinan, 47, who consulted with a nutritionist who specialized in cancer.
Everything she learned and read encouraged her to greatly reduce the amount of dairy and meat in her diet so the study's conclusions made sense, she said. She now eats more vegetables, often in the form of smoothies.
"It's not to say I don't treat myself to a bowl of Ben & Jerry's now and then," she said. "But having a lot more green veggies in my diet has just given me overall better health."
Victoria Colliver is a San Francisco Chronicle staff writer. E-mail: firstname.lastname@example.com


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A personal quest to promote the use of wind energy and hydrogen technology in the Great Lakes area of the United States. The Great Lakes area is in a unique position to become an energy exporting region through these and other renewable energy technologies. *Update 2014: Just do it everywhere - Dan*
Wednesday, May 20, 2020
Saturday, May 09, 2020
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Diminish C.O.N.F.L.I.C.T.
This article is part of the Bonus Content from the Dairy Today May 2014 article "Farm Journal Legacy Project: Combat Conflict."
Conflict will occur on your dairy. Identify the root of the problem and address it quickly, says Amy Shoemaker, director of people growth strategies with Kennedy and Coe, LLC. She offers this acronym to help you remember key points in solving conflict.
As the manager of your dairy, strive to resolve conflict quickly.
Concerned: Be respectful and empathetic to others.
Options: Consider all solutions before choosing one.
Now: Deal timely with issues.
Follow-up: People slip back into old habits without follow-up.
Listen: Hear both sides of the situation.
Inquire: Clarify what others say to avoid misunderstanding.
Contract: Agree on solution and action steps.
Together: Collaboration and mutual respect is the best approach.


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The purpose of Energy Innovation 2013 – a half-day conference co-hosted by my organization, the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation, and the Breakthrough Institute – was to discuss the possibility of developing and deploying all of the cheap, high-performing zero-carbon technologies necessary to meet 40 terawatts of projected global demand by mid-century. Most importantly, the conference spurred debate on how the need for clean energy innovation should influence the climate and energy policy debate.
Over the course of three stellar panel discussions as well as follow-on debate via twitter (check out #EI13), a number of themes emerged that merit further debate amongst advocates, thinkers, and policymakers:
It's Global Warming, Not American Warming
ITIF President Rob Atkinson set the stage for why energy innovation needs to be a policy priority by presenting a straight-forward logic chain: climate change is real and man-made, it's about developing clean energy technologies that are cheaper than fossil fuel alternatives to drive down carbon emissions, and it's globally pervasive. Clean energy technologies need to be affordable to all nations, and particularly emerging economies with growing populations that will consume more energy in the coming decades than the United States.
From a global carbon emission perspective, our policy choices cannot be made in a vacuum. This is particularly important because many countries are simply trying to provide access to energy in the first place (vs. providing new access to clean energy), so cost and performance are even more acutely important.
Of course, this doesn't mean America shouldn't act. On the contrary, America should act aggressively even if other countries don't. What the global perspective tells us though is that we have to be smart about what aggressive policies we choose to pursue.
For instance, aggressively pursuing an energy innovation strategy would produce cheap technologies that developing countries could deploy on a large scale. Pursuing a regulation-first strategy would not, and other countries would be hesitant to head down this path because of higher energy costs.
Clean Energy Policy Advocacy is Often Only 20% Deep
The first panel debating the state and future of solar and wind technology clearly brought to surface the major disconnect between today's energy policy advocacy and our climate challenges.
Over the last few years, both wind and solar technologies have seen significant growth and with continued subsidies and regulations, solar and wind technologies can potentially reach 20 percent market penetration.
Unfortunately, efforts to increase penetration to more than 20 percent of market share result in significantly higher costs; integration costs resulting from intermittency greatly limit how far existing technologies can carry the world to zero carbon.
Panel 1: The State of Clean Energy Technologies: Solar and Wind
As Jesse Jenkins, writing for The Energy Collective, reported from the conference:
"Tackling this integration challenge will thus be key to taking wind and solar to scale in the longer-term. That will require changes in the way the grid currently operates, including different compensation for providers of flexible backup power and expanded ability to modulate demand as wind and solar output changes. In the long-term, new grid-scale energy storage technologies may be essential to achieving high penetrations of wind energy, although panelists differed on the feasibility of these technologies, 8888888a variety of which are in development."
As conference panelists Minh Le (Director of the DOE SunShot Program), Fort Felker (Director of the NREL National Wind Technology Center), and Armond Cohen (Executive Director of the Clean Air Task Force) agreed by the end of discussion, considerably more innovation is necessary to develop the technologies capable of moving wind and solar past the 20 percent threshold, meaning both industries need alternative policy approaches that emphasize innovation.
And the shift in policy emphasis is significant. Cohen mentioned the disparity between global investments in the two technologies: "Global spending on wind and solar deployment was $250 billion, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance. Global R&D spending is roughly $12 billion. Something is out of whack."
This need to shift to energy innovation policy continued during the second panel. Ambri's Phil Giudice underscored the need for advanced energy storage technologies, which have the power to "separate power demand from supply, eliminate the intermittency challenge, and to stabilize power prices." The panel left the audience with a solid understanding that while we've come a long way towards integrating clean energy technologies into the U.S. economy, we need investment in innovation to drive us the rest of the way there.
We Need Nuclear Energy Innovation to Solve Climate Change
Leading nuclear energy thinkers Venrock venture capitalist Ray Rothrock and author Gwyneth Cravins also spoke during the second panel about the need to remove emotional, regulatory, and technological barriers to advancing safer and cheaper nuclear energy. Nuclear power is not only an available, low-carbon, base load power source, but its current up-front costs and often time burdensome Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) oversight limits the potential for innovation.
To overcome the technical and political barriers to nuclear as a base load power source, Rothrock called for a new institution or entity separate from NRC and DOE to support next-generation nuclear technologies. In addition to more institutional support, additional investment is necessary as well. As it stands today, DOE is investing roughly $450 million in one set of small modular reactor demonstration plants while other countries in the Middle East as well as China and South Korea are quickly accelerating their investments and research to become world leaders in nuclear.
Panel 2: The State of Clean Energy Technologies: Nuclear and Energy Storage
Rejecting Technology Tribalism
As keynote speaker and Breakthrough Institute President Michael Shellenberger noted, "technology tribalism has plagued energy policy since the 1970's." On one hand, many clean energy advocates believe little technological innovation is absolutely required (though it wouldn't hurt) to mitigate climate change because existing technologies are more than enough to power the world. On the other hand, many other advocates with myopic free-market ideologies believe there are no justification for government support of innovation beyond basic science and subsidies for fossil fuels and nuclear energy.
Rhetoric like this holds the country back from leading in energy innovation, competing in the emerging global clean energy marketplace, and implementing a cohesive policy to mitigate climate change.
Universal Agreement "Energy Innovation" is Good, But Not Where it Comes From
The most discussed topic of the conference was how to spur energy innovation. During the last panel, Environmental Defense Fund (EDF) President Fred Krupp argued that carbon pricing and regulation would spur innovation. On the other hand, Breakthrough Institute Chairman Ted Nordhaus argued that the overwhelming evidence from the "induced innovation" literature has found that notion to be false.
As history shows – most recently through the shale gas revolution – innovation comes about from direct investments and public-private partnerships from research through early deployment, and to say otherwise is to assume innovation emerges magically. So in a way, Krupp is right, "There's no silver [policy] bullet. But we need to get emissions down fast. That should be the test of any policy proposed." It's just that when we stack up the dominant policy proposals from the last 20 years, as Nordhaus points out, "we're not going to price, cap, or regulate our way to a low-carbon future." In the near-term, policy options focused on directly innovating the cheap technologies we need potentially guide us to the path of fastest emission reductions.
Panel 3: Debating the Future of U.S. Clean Energy Policy


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Saturday, September 12, 2009
The Failure of Economists to Account for Complexity
Mr. Chairman and members of the committee: I thank you for the opportunity to testify. My name is David Colander. I am the Christian A Johnson Distinguished Professor of Economics at Middlebury College. I have written or edited over forty books, including a top-selling principles of economics textbook, and 150 articles on various aspects of economics. I was invited to speak because I was one of the authors of the Dahlem Report [revised and republished in Critical Review vol. 21, nos. 2-3, Spring-Summer 2009] in which we chided the economics profession for its failure to warn society about the impending financial crisis, and I have been asked to expand on some of the themes that we discussed in that report. (I attach that report as an appendix to this testimony.)
One year ago, almost to the day, the U.S. economy had a financial heart attack, from which it is still recovering. That heart attack, like all heart attacks, was a shock, and it has caused much discussion about who is to blame, and how can we avoid such heart attacks in the future. In my view much of that discussion has been off point. To make an analogy to a physical heart attack, the US had a heart attack because it is the equivalent of a 450-pound man with serious ailments too numerous to list, who is trying to live as if he were still a 20 year old who can party 24-7. It doesn't take a rocket economist to know that that will likely lead to trouble. The questions I address in my testimony are: Why didn't rocket economists recognize that, and warn society about it? And: What changes can be made to see that it doesn't happen in the future?
Some non-economists have blamed the financial heart attack on economist's highly technical models. In my view the problem is not the models; the problem is the way economic models are used. All too often models are used in lieu of educated common sense, when in fact models should be used as an aid to educated common sense. When models replace common sense, they are a hindrance rather than a help.
Modeling the Economy as a Complex System
Using models within economics or within any other social science, is especially treacherous. That's because social science involves a higher degree of complexity than the natural sciences. The reason why social science is so complex is that the basic unit in social science, which economists call agents, are strategic, whereas the basic unit of the natural sciences are not. Economics can be thought of the physics with strategic atoms, who keep trying to foil any efforts to understand them and bring them under control. Strategic agents complicate modeling enormously; they make it impossible to have a perfect model since they increase the number of calculations one would have to make in order to solve the model beyond the calculations the fastest computer one can hypothesize could process in a finite amount of time.
Put simply, the formal study of complex systems is really, really, hard. Inevitably, complex systems exhibit path dependence, nested systems, multiple speed variables, sensitive dependence on initial conditions, and other non-linear dynamical properties. This means that at any moment in time, right when you thought you had a result, all hell can break loose. Formally studying complex systems requires rigorous training in the cutting edge of mathematics and statistics. It's not for neophytes.
This recognition that the economy is complex is not a new discovery. Earlier economists, such as John Stuart Mill, recognized the economy's complexity and were very modest in their claims about the usefulness of their models. They carefully presented their models as aids to a broader informed common sense. They built this modesty into their policy advice and told policy makers that the most we can expect from models is half-truths. To make sure that they did not claim too much for their scientific models, they divided the field of economics into two branches—one a scientific branch, which worked on formal models, and the other political economy, which was the branch of economics that addressed policy. Political economy was seen as an art which did not have the backing of science, but instead relied on the insights from models developed in the scientific branch supplemented by educated common sense to guide policy prescriptions.
In the early 1900s that two-part division broke down, and economists became a bit less modest in their claims for models, and more aggressive in their application of models directly to policy questions. The two branches were merged, and the result was a tragedy for both the science of economics and for the applied policy branch of economics.
It was a tragedy for the science of economics because it led economists away from developing a wide variety of models that would creatively explore the extraordinarily difficult questions that the complexity of the economy raised, questions for which new analytic and computational technology opened up new avenues of investigation.[1] Instead, the economics profession spent much of its time dotting i's and crossing t's on what was called a Walrasian general equilibrium model which was more analytically tractable. As opposed to viewing the supply/demand model and its macroeconomic counterpart, the Walrasian general equilibrium model, as interesting models relevant for a few limited phenomena, but at best a stepping stone for a formal understanding of the economy, it enshrined both models, and acted as if it explained everything. Complexities were just assumed away not because it made sense to assume them away, but for tractability reasons. The result was a set of models that would not even pass a perfunctory common sense smell test being studied ad nauseam.
Initially macroeconomics stayed separate from this broader unitary approach, and relied on a set of rough and ready models that had little scientific foundation. But in the 1980s, macroeconomics and finance fell into this "single model" approach. As that happened it caused economists to lose sight of the larger lesson that complexity conveys —that models in a complex system can be expected to continually break down. This adoption by macroeconomists of a single-model approach is one of the reasons why the economics profession failed to warn society about the financial crisis, and some parts of the profession assured society that such a crisis could not happen. Because they focused on that single model, economists simply did not study and plan for the inevitable breakdown of systems that one would expect in a complex system, because they had become so enamored with their model that they forgot to use it with common sense judgment.
Models and Macroeconomics
Let me be a bit more specific. The dominant model in macroeconomics is the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. This is a model that assumes there is a single globally rational representative agent with complete knowledge who is maximizing over the infinite future. In this model, by definition, there can be no strategic coordination problem—the most likely cause of the recent crisis—such problems are simply assumed away. Yet, this model has been the central focus of macro economists' research for the last thirty years.
Had the DSGE model been seen as an aid to common sense, it could have been a useful model. When early versions of this model first developed back in the early 1980s, it served the useful purpose of getting some intertemporal issues straight that earlier macroeconomic models had screwed up. But then, for a variety of sociological reasons that I don't have time to go into here, a majority of macroeconomists started believing that the DSGE model was useful not just as an aid to our understanding, but as the model of the macroeconomy. That doesn't say much for the common sense of rocket economists. As the DSGE model became dominant, important research on broader non-linear dynamic models of the economy that would have been more helpful in understanding how an economy would be likely to crash, and what government might do when faced with a crash, was not done.[2]
Similar developments occurred with efficient market finance models, which make similar assumptions to DSGE models. When efficient market models first developed, they were useful; they led to technological advances in risk management and financial markets. But, as happened with macro, the users of these financial models forgot that models provide at best half truths; they stopped using models with common sense and judgment. The modelers knew that there was uncertainty and risk in these markets that when far beyond the risk assumed in the models. Simplification is the nature of modeling. But simplification means the models cannot be used directly, but must be used judgment and common sense, with a knowledge of the limitations of use that the simplifications require. Unfortunately, the warning labels on the models that should have been there in bold print—these models are based on assumptions that do not fit the real world, and thus the models should not be relied on too heavily—were not there. They should have been, which is why in the Dahlem Report we suggested that economic researchers who develop these models be subject to a code of ethics that requires them to warn society when economic models are being used for purposes for which they were not designed.
How did something so stupid happen in economics? It did not happen because economists are stupid; they are very bright. It happened because of incentives in the academic profession to advance lead researchers to dot i's and cross t's of existing models, rather than to explore a wide range of alternative models, or to focus their research on interpreting and seeing that models are used in policy with common sense. Common sense does not advance one very far within the economics profession. The over-reliance on a single model used without judgment is a serious problem that is built into the institutional structure of academia that produces economic researchers. That system trains show dogs, when what we need are hunting dogs.
The incorrect training starts in graduate school, where in their core courses students are primarily trained in analytic techniques useful for developing models, but not in how to use models creatively, or in how to use models with judgment to arrive at policy conclusions. For the most part policy issues are not even discussed in the entire core macroeconomics course. As students at a top graduate school said, "Monetary and fiscal policy are not abstract enough to be a question that would be answered in a macro course" and "We never talked about monetary or fiscal policy, although it might have been slipped in as a variable in one particular model." (Colander, 2007, pg 169).
Let me conclude with a brief discussion of two suggestions, which relate to issues under the jurisdiction of this committee, that might decrease the probability of such events happening in the future.
* Include a wider range of peers in peer review
The first is a proposal that might help add a common sense check on models. Such a check is needed because, currently, the nature of internal-to-the-subfield peer review allows for an almost incestuous mutual reinforcement of researcher's views with no common sense filter on those views. The proposal is to include a wider range of peers in the reviewing process of NSF grants in the social sciences. For example, physicists, mathematician, statisticians, and even business and governmental representatives, could serve, along with economists, on reviewing committees for economics proposals. Such a broader peer review process would likely both encourage research on much wider range of models and would also encourage more creative work.
* Increase the number of researchers trained to interpret models
The second is a proposal to increase the number of researchers trained in interpreting models rather than developing models by providing research grants to do that. In a sense, what I am suggesting is an applied science division of the National Science Foundation's social science component. This division would fund work on the usefulness of models, and would be responsible for adding the warning labels that should have been attached to the models.
This applied research would not be highly technical and would involve a quite different set of skills than the standard scientific research would require. It would require researchers who had an intricate consumer's knowledge of theory but not a producer's knowledge. In addition it would require a knowledge of institutions, methodology, previous literature, and a sensibility about how the system works. These are all skills that are currently not taught in graduate economics programs, but they are the skills that underlie judgment and common sense. By providing NSF grants for this work, the NSF would encourage the development of a group of economists who specialized in interpreting models and applying models to the real world. The development of such a group would go a long way toward placing the necessary warning labels on models, and make it less likely that fiascos like a financial crisis would happen again.
Colander, David. 2006. (ed.) Post Walrasian Macroeconomics: Beyond the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model. Cambridge, UK. Cambridge University Press.
Colander, David. 2007. The Making of an Economist Redux. Princeton, New Jersey: Princeton
University Press.
Solow, Robert. 2007. "Reflections on the Survey" in Colander 2007.
[1] Some approaches working outside this Walrasian general equilibrium framework that I see as promising includes approaches using adaptive network analysis, agent based modeling, random graph theory, ultrametrics, combinatorial stochastic processes, cointegrated vector autoregression, and the general study of non-linear dynamic models.
[2] Among well known economists, Robert Solow stands out in having warned about the use of DSGE models for policy. (See Solow, in Colander, 2007, pg 235.) He called them "rhetorical swindles." Other economists, such as Post Keynesians, and economic methodologists also warned about the use of these models. For a discussion of alternative approaches, see Colander, ed. (2007). So alternative approaches were being considered, and concern about the model was aired, but those voices were lost in the enthusiasm most of the macroeconomics community showed for these models.
9 comments:
- Drewfus said...
Good article, but i would ask you,
"...students are primarily trained in analytic techniques useful for developing models, but not in how to use models creatively, or in how to use models with judgment to arrive at policy conclusions."
...in what subjects are students taught creativity or judgement? The teaching of creativity is not generalized throughout the education system, so why would economics be different?
- September 14, 2009 at 5:39 AM
- Dave said...
Kudos for mentioning agent based modeling, although maybe next time this promising method should go into the body of your text and not just the notes.
- September 14, 2009 at 7:34 PM
- SRP said...
If there were a shred of evidence that "educated common sense" existed or could be produced, this might be more interesting. But I have never seen such things; it was precisely the "common-sense" types who said housing prices had never gone down before, etc. It was the "common-sense" people who came up with the monetary and fiscal policies that exacerbated the Great Depression.
More and more, I've come to realize that ideas like "common sense" and "wisdom" (often opposed rhetorically to "cleverness" or "technique") are applied ex post to whomever turns out to have been right but have almost no ex ante usefulness.
- September 15, 2009 at 3:09 AM
- Rafe Furst said...
Fantastic analysis, I'm really glad this was part of the testimony before Congress. For those who missed it, also part of the testimony was Nassim Taleb (of Black Swan fame) as seen here. I see the this testimony as the long-overdue coming of age of complexity economics.
One of the main lessons of complexity economics that I suspect won't be learned this time around by policy makers is that the very act of trusting in incentives and regulation -- no matter how complete and "perfect" they are -- creates the conditions for the boom-bust dynamic to repeat. The particulars are always different and the more perfect the incentive/regulation scheme is (and the more trust we have in it) the bigger the next crisis will be. Noted complexity researcher, Alfred Hubler, draws a strong correlation to forrest fire dynamics.
For this reason, I think Colander's suggestions regarding peer review and model interpretation are wise. I also agree with the promising approaches outlined in the Notes, especially agent-based modeling combined with adaptive network analysis. Closed form analyses of any sort are ipso facto a bad idea: they lead to the misplaced trust referred to above. Moreover, they create the false dichotomy between the endogenous and the exogenous, which is at the heart of why we are always solving the last crisis (instead of avoiding the future one).
The one thing we know for certain is that the next black swan is coming and by definition we can't predict when and what it will look like. But we can stop acting so surprised when it shows up, and we can make the system more resilient to its effects by accepting this basic truth and building in some heterogeneity both in terms of our ability to perceive the black swan and our ability to respond to it.
- September 16, 2009 at 3:45 PM
- Lorenzo said...
I strongly second Steven's comment.
I suspect what David Colander actually means by "common sense" is not common sense at all, but some notion of informed perception.
The reality is that it is very easy for abstract thought to go wrong. Hence the importance of mathematics for ensuring rigour in reasoning, use of evidence to ensure contact with the real world, etc. "Common sense" is "gut abstraction", so a dubious thing to lean on.
- September 20, 2009 at 9:12 PM
- Nick said...
I don't agree that black swans are completely unpredictable. If one keeps the same rule set for the system, they are. But statistical prediction from complex combinatory models can suggest changes in the rule set that would make them less probable in the first place. Kauffman's analysis of NK Boolean Networks in the evolution of Complex Adaptive Systems demonstrates just this parameter effect. If you change the rule set, the probability of such things as Complexity Catastrophe can change. That is where our focus should be with regard to regulation in financial systems, designing the proper rule set. Of course constant vigilance and modeling based on updated data would be necessary to keep up with innovations in market systems, but that isn't a problem. Non-linear models haven't had the chance to prove their salt yet. They should certainly be much better than equilibrium models, especially for creating robust rule sets.
- January 17, 2012 at 3:03 PM
- hou said...
I suspect what David Colander actually means by "common sense" is not common sense at all, but some notion of informed perception.
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- October 12, 2015 at 1:33 AM
- hou said...
I suspect what David Colander actually means by "common sense" is not common sense at all, but some notion of informed perception.
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- October 12, 2015 at 1:33 AM
- Best Betting said...
BREAKING NEWS: USD Currency Collapse
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USD national debt is at an all time high and now financial experts are saying that China is starting to sell their debt holdings to the secondary market.
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>>Watch This Video To Learn More<<
I don't want to be the bringer of bad news, but this is seriously not good for the US since we already have domestic problems of our own, such as immigration and unemployment.
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Make sure you watch it before it's taken offline.
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[Mr Mark Fidelman]
- September 11, 2018 at 8:22 AM


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It's official: the days of Ozzie bin Laden promotional vids featuring the fun-loving al-Qaeda big cheese holding forth at length to some antiquated VHS camcorder while lovingly fingering his AK-47 are well and truly over.
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Of couse, you're not going to find the sort of expertise required to churn out top-notch propaganda in rural Afghanistan, and al-Qaeda is accordingly "recruiting computer-savvy technicians to produce sophisticated web documentaries and multimedia products aimed at Muslim audiences in the United States, Britain and other Western countries".
Afghan Qari Mohammed Yusuf, self-confessed cameraman for Ozzie's video production outfit al-Sahab, declared: "The al-Qaeda men who are coming today are not farmers, illiterate people. They are PhDs, professors who know about this technology. Day by day they are coming. Al-Qaeda has asked them to come."
No kidding. In fact, this recruitment drive has been going on for yonks. Back in 2005, we reported that al-Qaeda had placed internet small ads punting "vacant positions for video production and editing statements, footage and international media coverage about militants in Iraq, the Palestinian territories, Chechnya and other conflict zones where militants are active".
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Next week
Exclusive: Bolivian llama herders supply wool to al-Qaeda mitt-knitting grandmothers. Department of Homeland Security issues stark glove-based terror alert.


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The Word of God on a pen drive . . .
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At a conference in the Vatican, Catholic bishops argued that the written word was not sufficient and have called for the Holy Bible to be spread using the internet, CDs, DVDs and even iPods. According to an official statement from the Vatican, "The voice of the Divine Word must resonate over the radio, on Internet channels with virtual distribution (and by) CDs, DVDs and iPods, and on television and cinema screens."
Watch a short video about listening to the Word of God . . .
(If the video does not load, you can watch it here.)
While the Holy See has always been quick to adopt new technologies like the internet to keep pace with the changing times, it still clings on to some outdated beliefs and practices that have no place in the modern world 😐Read Full Post | Make a Comment ( 10 so far )


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FCC boss Julius Genachowski has invited New Mexico's Media Literacy Project to join a committee that weighs in on consumer issues.
The Federal Communications Commission regulates radio, TV, Internet and telephone service, among other things. The FCC is powerful, and its mission is to make communication channels available to everyone in the United States without discrimination, according to the Telecommunications Act of 1996. Such services should be provided for reasonable fees, too, the act states.
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Washington (CNN) - Beth Myers has long been Mitt Romney's most trusted political adviser, so it's no surprise that he tasked her with the job of helping him find the right running mate
In an exclusive interview with CNN earlier this week, Myers described to CNN what the process entailed.
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"He's very methodical in making his decisions, and what he wants is a couple things. First of all, he wants all the information, and we went about a very thorough process in making sure we had a lot of information about a broad group. He also doesn't like to rule anything out until he has to," she said.
She described the first group of possibilities as "broad."
"We got a good cut of information about a lot of people. He then narrowed it down, and we got even more information. We got personal information from each of the potential candidates. And at that point, again, we had some attorneys go thru and look thru everybody's record to make sure that there was–you know I didn't want to miss anything about them," she told CNN.
Next step was for Romney to look at the information about each candidate and to make his analysis of them.
"Mitt took these candidate dossiers and he thought about them. He read all of them word for word. I had talked with each of the candidates personally. He had obviously been campaigning with a lot of the folks that he was considering. And he read the dossiers, and we narrowed it down once again. And we did, you know an even more deep dive, on them and then gave them the final product," Myers explained.
Asked if he then solicited advice, Myers told CNN Romney would ask a wide range of people their opinion.
"He solicits the advice of a small group of his advisers, but then he asks I think everybody he meets 'what's your thought on this?'" She added "He listens. He asks, you know, sort of people you wouldn't think that he'd ask about it. He talks to, you know, he calls friends from all walks of his life, all across the country, wanting to know what they think. He listens to that."
While she knew the most about all of the candidates and their backgrounds, Myers did not tell Romney who she preferred for the job.
"I haven't told him. I have not shared with him my opinion because I think it's important that I'm objective."
Myers said Romney being comfortable with the choice was very important as well as making sure the person was qualified.
"I mean obviously his first qualification is that the person is qualified to be president and perceived to be qualified to be president."
- CNN Senior Producer Kevin Bohn contributed to this story.
The Ryan plan will privatize medicare just like when they privatized health care. Ryan plan would require future Medicare recipients to use a premium support provided by the federal gov (voucher) to buy a private insurance policy instead of receiving current benefits directly funded by the federal gov. The Path to Prosperity" doesn't contain a specific proposal to privatize Social Security;however, Ryan set out some specifics proposing to privatize a portion of Social Sec. by creating individual accounts for beneficiaries and telling the beneficiaries to invest a part of the money.Beneficiary would pay 68 PERCENT of the cost of currently covered services and the premium support payment would pay 32 percent of the currently covered services. In part, this would be because both administrative costs and profits would be HIGHER in a private plan,and payment rates to providers are higher for private plans than for Medicare. Ryan Plan and Mitt Romney are picking on the seniors who have fixed income to make a buck on health care! Lobby checks r coming the insurance companies looking to make more profits; Can one imagine Blue Cross Blue Shield making more than the 13 billion they already made in the last year on sick people by over charging them? Makes me feel ill. Obama 2012, let's get the word out!
Dem comments are so funny, Ryan is a better person than every Democrat in America in the ways that matter, compassion, fairness, equality, tolerance, integrity, morals, values, and decency. No lib comes close to Ryan in any way that matters. The fact that the Mao lovers like Anita Dunn in the Obama adin. love Mao makes their hate of Ryan admirable.
Paul Ryan is the one man that can return America to Greatness.
All of the rises in costs we seen this year thanks to Obamacare is just the begining. NO Democrat understands like the post above, they don't own a business and they don't work so they have no idea, yeah if you are a leech on society and have no remorse for your taking because you are a Democrat then voting Obama for your freebies off the backs of your neighbors is the way to go for you. Everyone else has a moral obligation to vote Republican.
Its not too hard to see, Romney is over his head and was looking for someone to stand in front of him just like Bush did with Cheney.
Romney will become Ryan's shadow figure.
I think we will know more about him before the election just the way we knew more about Palin when she was selected.
Congratulations on your second term Mr. Obama.
A Wallstreet ceo & A T-Party extremist ? Not a chance today or anyother day. Ryan to gut Medicare and send Social Security to Wallstreet ? Absolutely not. Gut Education and send it too to Wallstreet ? Never ! Great Pick Romney what disaster next ? Your Leading this country will only push it further in the hole. Get a grip. Just go back to Wallstreet where you belong. Your an imbarrassment and you've displayed it not only here but around the globe.
@ lewy
so why isnt he the repub presidential candidate , you must think that Romney is at best second choice
Good Luck America.... you re so right keep your Guns, God and Money.... forget the middle class..they don't matter the 1% does... I have been following US politics for the last 6 years and this time around it is so unfair and one sided . Voter suppression/voter ID anything and everything is being done to get the GOP back ion the white house..
One point.... the outrage of the GOP calling Harry Reid a liar seems everybody forgot Joe Wilson calling the president of the United States a liar and far larger forum! Mitt Romney is buying this election lock, stock and barrel ... just think how many favours he will have to repay after the election! ......
It is easy. Romney read the FOX News poll that showed he is 9 points behind Obama. He needed someone to excite the conservatives, who still don't trust him. Remember 2008, when McCain needed Sarah Palin to excite the conservatives? Enter Paul Ryan, the author of Republicans' regressive "Path to Prosperity" budget plan. Knowing that most Americans can't add, Romney knows that there is a fighting chance he can sell the "lower tax rates lead to higher revenue" fairy tale to them, and who is better to sell the fairy tale than Ryan, its chief champion?
Paul Ryan's dad died when he was 16. Paul Ryan and his family received Government issued social security checks from the government. This helped his family make it through a difficult time. The social safety net helped to give him the opportunity to become the political leader he is today.
I wonder how often he thinks about this as he works to dismantle programs aimed to help people in need? Does he agree with the President that we are all in this together?
If he is a self made man, why as young, fit 16 year old man, did he allow his family to receive Government welfare? Was there not a construction job available for the young, able bodied Ryan to support his family, and pull himself up by his bootstraps?
Just asking?
"Return America to greatness"? Uh...where have you been living these past four years, Mr. Ryan...with your head up your posterior? Let's look at what President Obama has restored. THE ECONOMY: while Mitt Romney thought everything was just fine under W's economic policies, voters in 2008 disagreed bigtime...so President Obama stopped the biggest downward slide since The Great Depression and has us poised for the rebound...check. THE US AUTO INDUSTRY: while Mitt Romney would've let them fail, President Obama recognized the millions of jobs at stake, and the families who depend on them...check. OUR CREDIBILITY: Osama Bin Laden, dead...check. OUR TROOPS TO THEIR FAMILIES: Stopped the insanity of a two-front war by withdrawing from Iraq and scaling back our involvement in Afghanistan...check. OUR HEALTH: Bent over backwards in the face of ridiculous Republican demands, and still managed to craft a healthcare reform act that gives millions more Americans access to healthcare, and keeps insurance companies honest...check. OUR REPUTATION ABROAD: Once again, the world takes us seriously...thanks largely to President Obama's wise choice for Secretary of State, Hilary Clinton...check. OUR SANITY: The president is not president of the right or the left. He's everyone's president, and President Obama has behaved that way, consistently seeking middle ground and unity with those who take issue with his policies. Everything he does seeks to unite us, not divide us...check. Too bad congress...and the Republicans...haven't figured that out. They're still trying to turn everything into an "us vs. them" battle. Is that what Paul Ryan wants to restore? Division? Narrow-mindedness? No. All Paul Ryan wants to restore is Republican power. So we can go back to doing things the way we did before President Obama...remember that time? The W years? Were those great times for this country? The American people didn't think so in 2008. They don't think so now, either. Mr. Ryan, for such a young and intelligent person, you are an anachronism. Your time has passed.
Good luck people. Equal opportunity but the equal outcome can be different. That to me says alot. Romney is going to make the Rich more wealthy and the poor in the grave.


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I want to manipulate a rectangle so you can rescale, move and rotate it.
I also need this rectangle in my background code because i have to calculate intersections between them.
So i found the RectangleGeometry class:
public RectangleGeometry(Rect rect, double radiusX, double radiusY, Transform transform);
The Rect object includes methods like intersections, union,... so this is exactly what i need.
But it does not work with rotation: when i use the RotateTransform object to rotate the object it does not apply to the rect so when i calculate intersections I do not get the right solution...
I can make a RectangleGeometry and a separate Rect in my underlying code and apply every transformation to both objects .... but is this the only solution?


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The Chaska Community Center in Chaska, Minnesota was alive with quilter activity yesterday and will continue through tomorrow!
What a beautiful facility.
Big wall of windows.
Fabulous lighting!
Plenty of room to spread out and get down to the nitty gritty of making our Scrap Crystals Quilts! (Pattern from my MORE Adventures with Leaders & Enders book.)
We were deep into triangles by 9:30 am and the fun continued all the way up until lunch – a fabulous salad/sandwich bar provided by the guild, and they did a beautiful job:
Fabulous day, everyone!
You'll find the rest of our day in the slide show below:
The day wasn't done when class was done!
I was picked up my my friend Gudrun Erla of GE Designs, taken to her house and got face to face time with Koby, her dog, and a tour of her sewing/quilting/shipping operation which is similar to mine. We all want to know that we are doing things in the best way possible, so it was a great affirmation to see how she has arranged her space, her shipping and storage processes – and we enjoyed a great chat for about an hour before heading back to meet with the guild girls for dinner out at the Crooked Pint at the Chaska Curling Center!


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If you've ever been envious of the lanterns carried around by NYC subway engineers, then you will be happy to hear that you can purchased customized LED lanterns just like those for your own home.
Just $150 is all that it'll take to bring a touch of the subway system to wherever you are. [Voos Furniture via 718 Made in Brooklyn via Inhabitat]


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Export 49 results:Author Title [ Type] Year
Filters: Author is Judy Lai [Clear All Filters]
Conference Proceedings
"Building Scale DC Microgrids." 2012 IEEE Energytech 2012. LBNL-5729E..
"Building Distributed Energy Performance Optimization for China - a Regional Analysis of Building Energy Costs and CO2 Emissions." 2012 ACEEE Summer Study on Energy Efficiency in Buildings, August 12-17, 2012 2012. LBNL-81770..
"Behavioral Aspects in Simulating the Future US Building Energy Demand." 2010 Behavior, Energy and Climate Change Conference 2010. LBNL-4079E..
Conference Paper
"Web-Based Economic and Environmental Optimization of Microgrids." 2012 IEEE PES Innovative Smart Grid Technologies Conference. Washington Marriott Wardman Park, Washington D.C., USA, 2012. LBNL-6354E..
"The Stochastic Building Simulation Tool SLBM and its New Energy Forecasting Approach." Fifth Annual California Climate Change Conference, September 8-10, 2008. Sacramento Convention Center, 2008..
"Smart buildings with electric vehicle interconnection as buffer for local renewables?." Researching the Intelligent City: Key Challenges of Integrating Urban Energy and Mobility Systems Research Symposium. Berlin, Germany : LBNL, 2011. LBNL-4921E..
"Radical Rethinking in Building Energy Forecasting - The Open Source Stochastic Building Simulation Tool SLBM." 2008 Behavior Energy and Climate Change Conference, November 16-19, 2008. Sacramento, California, 2008..
"Plug in Electric Vehicle Interactions with a small office Building: An Economic Analysis Using DER-CAM." IEEE 2010 Power And Energy General Meeting. Minneapolis, MN, 2010. LBNL-3555E..
"Optimal Control of Distributed Energy Resources and Demand Response under Uncertainty." IAEE's Rio 2010 International Conference, June 6-9, 2010. Rio De Janeiro, Brazil : LBNL, 2010. LBNL-3828E..
"Microgrids for Commercial Building Combined Heat and Power and Power and Heterogeneous Power Quality and Reliability." IEEC 2007 Conference on Active Networks and Sustainable Energy Consumption, Nov. 14-15, 2007. Bilbao, Spain : LBNL, 2007. LBNL-63520..
"Microgrid Selection and Operation for Commercial Buildings in California and New York States." 4th European PV-Hybrid and Mini-Grid Conference, May 29-30, 2008 . Glyfada, Athens, Greece: LBNL, 2008. 12. LBNL-313E..
"Integration & Operation of a Microgrid at Santa Rita Jail." Jeju 2011 Symposium on Microgrids, Jeju Island, Korea, May 27 - 28, 2011. Jeju, Korea: LBNL, 2011. LBNL-4850E..
"Integrated building energy systems design considering storage technologies." ECEEE 2009 Summer Study, June 1-6, 2009. La Colle sur Loup, Cote d'Azur, France, 2009. LBNL-1752E..
"Greenhouse Gas Abatement with Distributed Generation in California's Commerical Buildings." 10th IAEE European Conference, Energy, Policies and Technologies for Sustainable Economies. Hofburg, Vienna, Austria, 2009. LBNL-2693E..
"A Green Prison: Santa Rita Jail Creeps Towards Zero Net Energy (ZNE)." ECEEE Summer Study, June 6-11, 2011. Belambra Presqu'île de Giens, France, 2011. LBNL-4497E..
"Future Roles of Milli-, Micro-, and Nano- Grids." CIGRÉ International Symposium The electric power system of the future - Integrating supergrids and microgrids. Bologna, Italy: LBNL, 2011..
"Evaluation of evolving residential electricity tariffs." ECEEE Summer Study, June 6-11, 2011. Belambra Presqu'île de Giens, France: LBNL, 2011. LBNL-4496E..
"Distributed Energy Resources On-Site Optimization for Commercial Buildings with Electric and Thermal Storage Technologies." 2008 ACEEE Summer Study on Energy Efficiency in Buildings, Scaling Up: Building Tomorrow's Solutions, August 17-22, 2008. Pacific Grove, CA: LBNL, 2008. LBNL-293E..
"Applications of Optimal Building Energy System Selection and Operation." Microgen'II: Second International Conference of Microgeneration and Related Technologies, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, Scotland, 4-6 Apr 2011. Glasgow, Scotland 4-6 Apr 2011: LBNL, 2011. LBNL-4764E..
"Application of the Software as a Service Model to the Control of Complex Building Systems." ECEEE Summer Study, June 6-11, 2011. Belambra Presqu'île de Giens, France: LBNL, 2011. LBNL-4860E..
"Analysis of electric vehicle interconnection with commercial building microgrids." UCLA Smart Grid Thought Leadership Forum April 6, 2011. Los Angeles, CA: LBNL, 2011. LBNL-4559E..
"Analysis of electric interconnection with commercial building." Electric Vehicle Integration Into the Smart Grid of the Future - G2V & V2G Forum, April 6, 2011. UCLA, 2011. LBNL-4559E..
"Added Value of Reliability to a Microgrid: Simulations of Three California Buildings." Cigré Integration of Wide-Scale Renewable Resources into the Power Delivery System, July 29-31, 2009. Calgary, Canada, 2009. 9. LBNL-1853E..
"The Added Economic and Environmental Value of Solar Thermal Systems in Microgrids with Combined Heat and Power." 3rd International Conference on Solar Air-Conditioning, September 30 – October 2, 2009. University Palermo, Sicily, Italy, 2009. 11. LBNL-2629E..


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It has been both an immense pleasure and honor to have had great students this semester for my oral exams. I can only hope that when my time comes to be an actual teacher, I'll find students with insights like a good chunks of the students I ran into during my shift at the oral exams. I fully intend to improve the current answers on my weblog for Dr. Ibana's students next schoolyear to find. Let's see if we can push the whole mini-urban legend angle a bit.
In any case, while Jack is more analytic and I am more practical with my line of questioning, the general consensus was Dr. Ibana was "nicer than his teaching assistants", as most of them assumed that the both of us were brutal people. In fact, one evaluation I had about my line of questioning is that g*g* ako magtanong, which, while is not entirely false, ultimately serves a purpose.
During the past couple of days, it became easy to notice who studied and who didn't. The people who really studied for the test wouldn't be fooled by trick questions, such as when I asked someone if emotions as pointers of values were reliable if they actually conflicted on the same value. He then pointed out that if one were to feel both happiness and envy over a best friend who becomes batch Valedictorian, then two different things are being valued: the best friend, and the distinction of being batch Valedictorian. Very perceptive.
On the other hand, I find that when one doesn't study, Dr. Ibana's analogy of playing dentist really fits. When I ask a question, I am merely rephrasing the question in a more practical or digestable form, and they actually answer the things they couldn't answer when it was Dr. Ibana asking them. Moreover, some students try to mask their lack of preparation through blind assertiveness or sheepishness. Doesn't fool the teacher, much less the teaching assistants, who recently graduated, so the tricks of the trade are still fresh in their minds.
When I talked to some students about thesis statement 6 which concerns the conscience, I asked a few of them why they think the conscience is considered one's "true self". After they answer that, I then ask them about Batman's nemesis, Two-Face. It's interesting, really. Is Two Face's coin, the one that he uses to deliberate upon his actions, really him? Or is the coin merely a scapegoat that his true self hides behind? Answers were varied and rather interesting.
One student particularly got a kick about Dr. Ibana's story regarding Max Scheler: it turns out that Scheler's philosophy of emotions being the indicator of value came from his philandering ways.
When I asked some students about thesis statement 8 which concerns justice, I asked a couple of students how justice could've been exercised in the "Digital Pinay" contest, and how they would've handled it to be more just. Carolyn, one of the CS students, had a brilliant way of answering it which really impressed me.
Another key question I asked on thesis statement 8 was the plane crash scenario: what if a plane was crashing and the plane only had three parachutes? Who among the four shouldn't get a parachute: Angel Locsin (Sometimes, I change this to Richard Gutierrez.), Cardinal Rosales (That I sometimes change to Cardinal Sin.), Joseph Estrada, or a boy scout?
Answers to the question were varied and interesting. Two answered the boy scout, citing the fact that a boy scout is "laging handa", and so should find a way out of the fix. One answered Richard Gutierrez, citing how bad an actor he is, anyway, so there's no point keeping him alive. Still another said it should be Estrada, as he asserts the former president has done no good for the country. Some other reasons that were touched upon were Angel Locsin because she's a Mulawin, and Cardinal Sin because his cassock can make him like a flying squirrel, or that he is old and has lived a fulfilled life, and he is most likely willing to sacrifice his life instead of any of the other three.
Some Chinese website has my name in their paper or something. I wonder what it's about, though... oh, well.
.:Welcome Back!:.
Other than an Oscar, Halle Berry has nothing on this girl.
Sacha's back, and it's been really great after six months of not seeing her in person, much less hugging her.
I was at her house last Thursday, as I was supposed to drop off Kathy's poi, and then some. It really made me happy to see her, and our conversations were good, particularly the stories Kathy had to tell that I'm sure are more interesting being told in her own inimitable way.
I sort of thought I saw the lead singer of Sugarfree there last night, but I was apparently mistaken. Oh, well. It was still fun, nonetheless. I also liked the little present I got from Sach…
Whee! My favorite character in Sakura Taisen, Li Saoryan.
Welcome back, Sach! You know you've been missed.
.:Ish Her Birthday:.
Oh, yes I did!
Clair had a scavenger hunt party for her birthday celebration, and it was fairly amusing. Thing is, while we were running all over U.P. campus, I was getting to know my groupmates quite a bit. It was a very amusing run-through, and the pictures, which I'm sure Clair would have links to, ought to make that whole deal clear. Nonetheless, conversations were varied, but all in all, it was a very nice way to bring Clair's friends together. I normally don't hug people I haven't been friends with for a long time, but I figured that given how stressed the poor girl seemed to be, I naturally volunteered.
One of the highlights was that I was supposed to pose like the Oblation in U.P. Closer inspection of the task had in parentheses that it must be done with my clothes on. Oh, come on! :P
As payback, Clair then flicked her super-soft, super-beautiful hair, and started singing Sandara Park's "Walang Sabit". Heh.
Clair is one amazing birthday host. It was really fun, and the candies were old school to the max! :P
Happy birthday, Clair!


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LABELLE, FL. -- Air Force Airman 1st Class Laura A. Reed graduated from basic military training at Lackland Air Force Base, San Antonio, Texas.
The airman completed an intensive, eight-week program that included training in military discipline and studies, Air Force core values, physical fitness, and basic warfare principles and skills.
Airmen who complete basic training earn four credits toward an associate in applied science degree through the Community College of the Air Force.
Reed is the daughter of John Reed of Case Road, LaBelle. She is a 2011 graduate of LaBelle High School. She earned an associate degree in 2011 from Edison State College, LaBelle.


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A White Sox fan in search of the team's future starters need look no deeper than Double-A Birmingham. That rotation features Nestor Molina, Simon Castro, Jose Quintana and Pedro Hernandez, who all took part in big league camp, as well as right-hander Cameron Bayne. If a starting spot opens up during the course of the season, there's a chance the White Sox would look at the Barons as quickly as they would check the rotation for Triple-A Charlotte.
Molina (Sergio Santos, from Toronto), Castro and Hernandez (both Carlos Quentin, from San Diego) all came over during offseason trades. Birmingham's roster also will feature relievers such as Nevin Griffith, Dan Remenowsky and Ryan Kussmaul, as well as position players such as Mitchell, Andy Wilkins and Jose Martinez.
Other White Sox links:
- James previews the 2012 bullpen.
- J.J. looks to see if Brent Morel is falling back into bad habits, says Chris Sale is going to be fine, and with Tony Andracki publish the 1960-2012 All-Chicago team.
- Chris Lamberti looks on the legend that was Rube Foster.
- Fangraphs' Chris Cwik examines the entire White Sox organization.
- SeedlingToStars' Wally Fish compares various Topp-100 prospect lists.