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Michael Lynton at D: Dive Into Media
Sony CEO Michael Lynton talks about how the Internet and social media are changing the movie business.
This transcript has been automatically generated and may not be 100% accurate.
... all the little bridge ... Michael and Sony ... I ... nor is ... it ... sorry idea ... thank you ... and they said the carrier runs the big magazine company now so does the magazine business and a concern as is the question as the movie and music business ... two thousand thirteen is the situation ... in twenty ten ... and the television business all people are buying stuff ... that they're buy movie tickets are still buying music and they're still watching TV ... all the above to the internet is not what the stuff that I get ... I get as much as it may try ... serving it for a one-time even running a Sandy's blow for a wine running Sony's ... movie studio they've added music two years ... he ranked in the last years so ... Bolsa will talk about both of you guys ... are pretty good year after it ... sold a billion dollar Skyfall tickets yes no work ... you do that every year now ... now now I know is that ... it was a good year ... it ended well with Skyfall is to stay in zero Dark thirty and then ... a couple of the movies were partners with the Weinstein Company tango ... so aam and we learned alot about ... serve with the audience is this ... this ... was was a man ... ALM ... same old same old works less and less well you actually now have to surprise the audience and provide them with something ... they hadn't expected to see before I think you see a lot of know what's in the movie of the marketing of ... what's in the movie I think more and more what you see in terms of whether successful or at least in this last ... for five months or movies that otherwise the audience would never expect to see on screen with in the past ... few years I think Hollywood has made a ... Ms Slade out of certain doing a little bit more of what's expected ... the Avengers came out this summer it ... it came out in the spring and less a ... comic book movie and has lots of movies and some do well some don't and that and you guys and Spiderman it seems like ... they're still lot of repetition in some of the worst of it does he have to look inside of the movies I think there's ... there's some things that are relatively new ... so I you know it's it's ... it's that it holds true to Skyfall James Bond it's the different areas Bond movie what's what's different about a diversity of the rented Al and I want it away but it's a very different James Bond it's you know it's the ... it's not ... radically different than that on that that Daniel Craig played before ... but he's more pruning he starts during these ... aam ... he's a ... very different bond then for example the bomb was planted there's awesome for him it and so was the conference about what happens to existing media companies like yourself a nice run up against technology new movie still the movie but it still basically using the same equipment years of restructuring at the same way ... but one of things that changes ... is what happens to me after I leave the movie theater ... yes I know I hated that movie so ... for that was really great ... against LPL lawyer and ... a bright bright ... and unsupported as adapting to that tradition of ... open trade ... I know ... well I think that in in that big is the biggest issue for us it so it's been ... a lot of the movie to make good a lot of these for me ... so ... and ... on ... the marketing with the nose was to smooth that out ... and ... we can no longer ... really hide it when we don't have tickets ... and that comes at a to point out really really quickly so ... aam there isn't that much you can do if you don't have the goods you can ... if not show the movie in advance which we've been known to eBay's to bed to read sometimes is a whitish on the wealthy plantation on the and and they speculate and sometimes we don't have a movie because ... we won a surprise something good and often times we do it ... the reason that just ... yet ... of all people it was so people this audience tend to get excited about things like social media and we sometimes and oversubscribed ... the power of Facebook or Twitter to effect change ... um but there's a conventional wisdom now that ... because ... I can tweet or Facebook or text about I can actually be what we can change the way reforms ... um ... after receiving a weakened yen make a movie died faster or or or you can extend its life at the history of bad ideas ... yes as much of its death because I can be about some stuff that has helped to sell on the positive side is there a way to serve up augment ... the positive word of mouth that you're using via the internet ... yes for sure I mean you can make certain for example if you do have a good movie that some that ... the right people see it early and they make sure that they ... put it out there and say this thing is fantastic ... aam ... and you can work with as you point out all the social media platforms that make certain that that ... it's it's it's tolerated so people hear about more quickly it's good that it's difficult to muffled the noise and they say it stinks ... so that's the score on a Monday or rather on a Saturday morning it's it is what is in UK it is what is an extended and it really is determined and ... in many respects of them all we can to get off the opening really so if you get a C minus sentiment sport you've grown and you just ... take the law Minister pre screening testing getting better you there's a there's a lot about what know what's up here later in there to talk a bit about what data ... they have access to but you guys untested movies for every time you have a pretty good has gotten worse yet yet I think it's gotten worse if anything and it's not it's not a function is gone what you've got less than that ... well ... I'd I don't ... I I don't know that we've got less good at it I think the the the information that we got from it and then ... how will ... it be how predicted that it is of how well the movie is on has become less dependable ... and whether that's because there are outside events that come into play or whether that's because ... as you say we must but added I'm not quite sure ... so it was like opens you have less of a new less of a sense that you would of two years ago or five years ago out ... correct said the man opening weekends to her ... it's like lineup and with that instrument ... that you will ... well that that that that they they don't pay in how they should pay pilots that well ... Raul by say seven or for a moment ... of ... um one thing I did also hasn't changed a lot yet ... we use these between doing of these is still so forget about the same way it is now on iTunes window in Netflix window ... but what I can do what I wanted to do this one are ... of was watched zero Dark thirty at my house is that with the New York kids too expensive to consider its very messy movie ... and I did go see it ... it's good to see if incentives ... but the tides we spent twenty bucks in twenty four Boxing you guys get some of that I would spend fifty forty bucks to watch it home anytime up to that I presume we would have warned that ... Purcell ... and I know you guys have talked about this in the news or the pullback community of changing a sketch or ... well we never talk about action showing the movie in your house when it's ... in total we do talk about which makes a lot of senses ... we have is dead period of about three or four months between the time the movie comes out of the movie theater in the time it's available in all and ... that frankly doesn't make ... sense and you can become a cart friends that that results in piracy you can make art has lost money to make arguments that was a lot of money and ... branding movie and then the next thing you know ... we ... go quiet and then we have to relaunch the branding effort ... three or four months later and that this mechanism so ... there has been conversations about how to ... put a window in between air between the ... home entertainment when the the the the the window or the yes the window of a theatrical he knew what ... I do like that idea lot there a lot of people in our business to war ... on both sets ice that we know we're concerned about doing it in theaters right with it and keep a lid and that people in the that the retell ... right ... right so you get people on both sides saying be careful when you do that but the retailers are saying goodbye to them in every year ... and fell far from acting bizarrely ... not so bizarrely but ... but but ... the DVD business held up this fourth quarter ... it's not going away now now well not now not for the moment you still need to see with the runners too because they are your first marketing ... they're not only our first marking day or the day are the only ones who are truly going to have with us ... so than any of the other distribution partners were not enough to fill my desire to what he sees their there they're e at my house for a bunch of money when it still looks ... now ... now now now ... I never is a long time that I can imagine that ... I really can't ... plus ... a movie ... the way I see a movie is only a movie with it if it really sees its first ... form a movie theater but I see it on the edges the red I'd I'd go home to my time were cable box and there's the on demand finances in theaters now there's movie they are small movies that I can watch now not so they're extra and yes um I'd I couldn't read Skyfall until today but ... I was at the hotel this weekend and I could watch it on watch at ... and I can't write so I mean that there is a bit they haven't are they haven't in theaters write to their bits and pieces were where the window ... it does ... raise a phrase that the edges euro ... it traces the apps that use but I'd I think everybody for everybody say I mean I we believe that it had ... at the at our place that ... you really wanna make sure that the Act ... states ... saw that that's the ... business can't move that fast watched ... well I think there's as I say there's that there's that white space in between ... where we've done nothing today ... we did one thing we did really badly ... you know we had that one experiment that we did last year the pencil roving Nano is like all of us all of us when out and member that was then still unknown movie middle of it but it was six or seven movies that would offer early ... and that ... dividends only wanted one and all that that that that gets one of the studio's one was a storm of all the humans did this and it was sixty or ninety day playing with it like a forty five for sixty days it didn't work to theater owners got very upset about it understandably focus we mishandled it and ... we said okay fine it's pencils down the street that if you think you will return to that some for ... next time around I hope we do it in a more quart needed by the quart needed I mean that we have a real marketing ... message to the consumer credit ... that it did it ... that it's ... evident to the theater owners that it's not hurt the business I don't think it is ... this was really sort of miss ... were talk on Facebook and Twitter earlier ... on us and a ton of money ... which are marketing budget for Sony's movies ... millions ... millions millions and many hundreds of millions or gas ... well not on an individual numbers and that absolutely lot of automaton got ... Watson Pharmaceuticals that ... right ... we spent on TV yet ... he still Spamalot on unconventional websites how much what percentage of marketing budget is ... to Facebook and Twitter the new fangled social so ... on I don't know exactly what it is it's a percentage of the overall Internet budget for them to resume is immaterial gas ... now to mature ... I mean that that ... all of the web based advertising action yet obviously it's gotten way out right ... newspapers come way down ... and this social stuff has come a whale as a percentage of Opel Lapid's back I don't know exactly ... if you ... use Facebook and Twitter are they are they ... to remove the news that yet ... they they can help get over because that is hearing people will say will hurt small movie the mind that for ... it doesn't I think they matter a lot I think it's a function of the next ... I think ... people ... misunderstand sometimes they think it's ... you know it's ... only the thing that will it's you know you can just do it that way but it's like any complicated recipe if you don't ... if you don't have all the various ingredients right ... the thing falls flat ... so ... the right amount of TV ... and in certain genres the right amount of outdoor even ... in one of the oldest things around that still this is very very ... viable and obviously now this is that I've been hearing by the Talking upright lifting the point is a good piece on this awhile ago about ... studio folks saying it were were really think Facebook is workforce were were asked to pull back from ... you like ... we like it ... we'd like it ... I think I think the issue is ... and it's like a lot of things I'm ... that that that the studios are ... and that I just said a moment ago that the tracking system doesn't work very well the moment but ... the studio system is setup to look at tracking and understand how that advertising is that the tracking ... and that's married up much work closely with television advertising images but some of these other so that's ... why ... my suspicion is some people to look at this and they say ... it's not working as well as the day when you work so I guess that's Poste was correct and I and I think what's really happening underneath this were not properly mantra all the time ... how effective it is this what it is accustomed to hearing that other mention to spend more on Facebook ... then you are but this year due to last ... no exact because it's a function of the slate that aam and which and how it works better for some kinds of movies and others but we will certainly stand ... no ... probably Facebook is ... what some things are typically good for a social media can ... of what something that particular did something that has a core audience for example that you know ... there's a specific audience for it ... har movie for example or movies that specifically geared toward specific demo ... it's a pedophile you can find them ... you can find them they find each other more importantly when you're dealing with a movie that really brought in really big ... aam ... that ... probably works better sitting on a ... big broadcast TV show for the time being ... so Scott Oever goes on TV yes we did a lot ... um and that's going to work with every spending on its debt and the sheer thing that Facebook site and that it is the sheriff shows that it's more ... than that you know that there's a specific audience out there that didn't go for now that maybe other audiences in addition to the one that that you can be skipped that one ... so ... in ... the ... US to TV ... doubt and and and you guys latest it's it's a reason to use this announcing real starts we did ... of that that that there's lot of speculation that Netflix connected on a ... new deal to how aggressive was Netflix ... I ... we're all sworn to confidentiality sat on a greater cause ... yea I wanna add on that any confidence that they were they they ... they they were very much ... um they wanted to be a part of it ... you know they they still wanted ... to get more studios on their service ... and in ideologically are you ok with Netflix there's a period where people ignored Netflix and they dislike of actively in this are taking the Texan is that we should hold off and walks keep them out of our movie business it's like they're now ready to take the money ... yes I'm it's never thought I'd ... give the ideology and ... and that was that of a mismatch for me but ... I never really had a strong feeling one way or the other they were ... they or have always been a really good customer ... in the land and they continue to be a better and better it did not just for the movie picks ... for the options ... and now they're doing their own production ... now they are doing their own productions ... for your business is ... now on the contrary we are that we are ... a partner in the production ... so receivers yes where we can be funded a significant part of that ... to take international species so for us it's just ... it's another customer ... I think Netflix and ... and and along with PBR as the deer's head ... actually ... that that is one of those rare instances where they have fundamentally changed the creative nature ... of the product ... in a good with that with a sex act that way ... not a good way or that way in East that have to play ... some ... tunes o' the woods and so does ... well the Netflix and in combination with the PBR who is ... in in in in the past ... you had a really difficult time whether for cable or for for certain Opera broadcast ... in creating long form open ended ... trauma ... so you had to at the end of every episode for ... me he put it in a bundle and say ... if you never saw anything else in the series know exactly what went on ... and part of that was because that's when people watch TV car that was because of this indications of things ... and also when people did ... open up and they missed the show along the way ... aam they said they said she I'm not sure this is worth all my time and effort because if I missed two or three episodes ... so all the sudden PBR shows up and Netflix shows up and what happens is people say I like to miss the couple and catch up ... and I personally believe that one of the reasons you're seeing this explosion in creativity going on right now ... whether it's ... everything from mad men to breaking bad to house of cards to ... justify two sons of anarchy to the list goes on on on and on to your ... summer than ours ... is the fact that ... you now can create these ... thirty Napa so ... long for Meredith's where characters can get developed over thirteen hours ... better writers come to this because they say gee I can get it done in two hours of the movie ... better directors are coming to an always predecessor gold's rise of cable TV we are saying this is in part because of technology this is something completely different now ... the broadcasters have gotten on board with the bike to the extent to which the The cable guys ... for different reasons but ... I think this is a direct effect of ... direct coming a direct becoming a ... technology which is you know the difference I've seen ... so is the talk about how technology can affect ... the actual creative ... elements of this ... this is the first one on says if you like to have many would bring the lessons of ... the thank you DVR and Netflix ... yes ... generally people think that that that ... a lot which was an all absorbing the present ... um present Adel so that's good ... yes those lower our current events ... overall seems like a business to be optimistic has bottomed out and is is coming back you get a ... leg break ... and why do you think that's a was a decade plus of the declining sales when you think its stock ... boy I knew this business OMN ABC Jimmy IV later ... and probably answer the question of the night ... so ... that it's going up and deceptive it's going up but I you know I think overall people were always listen to music ... and I think it was a prom about how you were ... going to get music to them and you've heard this a hundred times I'm sure you get the stuff to them in a way that was ... that it is legal ... and I think there are so many different ways to do it and are so many different ... streaming and downloading an all in all of which are legal but I think on the people is paying off debt and preferred to it this way than the other way ... are you seeing sales go up significantly um for all of our downloads in places like iTunes and Amazon ... yes but there's two elements there's two ways that's going up the first way that's going up is aam ... device ... so it's typically ... the more devices that are sold them or down it's again a device that ... by some songs of assets on the other thing that they become expert at which actually coincides with the whole politicians and businessmen think that ... when you talk to the iTunes guys they would tell you that they ... they got learning from each other is that they are now selling more more how it's because they figured out a way ... to up sell off the track to the album ... in the same way that the bundle that ... but the bottle back and part of that I think ... if you talk to them ... came out of ... the experience of television as they were selling those ... individual episodes ... and now people are being whatever they call it ... the union you were recouping some of what the last week and write books is complain about the fact that that going on a Saturday morning to watch one thing may come out on Sunday night ... first writing ... to it's it's a little weird I gotta admit it's a little we hear the whole thing but it people and the fact that people admit to is even weirder but nonetheless it comes to public records their bosses weaned customers are times right ... bridging ... um in in in in but here we can ... subscription services that one is that music slump has been going on in hearing about ... these expressions to take off the industry the park for a long time now they seem okay with that yet he see meaningful revenue from to a spot of fire right now yes ... and I guess Bhutani Wasserman yes it's it's it's coming along pretty nicely mostly outside the United States more than inside in the States but it is coming on ... in in white and and there been there than services in the US for a long time they don't seem to have caught on write what you think it's caught on outside the U S ... I ... my suspicion is that I think a big part of this is that the service gets bundled into ... a pre existing subscription service so you know ... it the best possible ... thing you could do it with is a service operator in a ... phone operator ... aam I think that that that ... whether it's riser eighteen T in this country are reluctant to do that it's ... whereas I think the folks in ... the Nordics or elsewhere in Europe or walk more willing to do and you think youth spots are urgently IBM's thing or whatever are on able to put themselves up with Verizon Comcast or whoever ... t think it stays as is the bubble ... now I think there's other ways to do a venomous enough ButScott to ... twenty plus ... some without ... funnily ... enough ... to get the thing people assume that puts a surging eight bucks a month for home movies you can the bright spot by those guys all charge about ten bucks a month ... to see people value music and movies you for your thing one is more valuable ... I really don't know the answer that question I don't I don't ... you know I haven't seen any research on it's a good question ... identity by my cousin value video or sweaters not as much court ... maybe accepts ... you know you see a movie once you see TV show once that said the plant piece of music you played over and over and over and over again ... so I started doing the calculation my head I don't know which is more ... a year but I don't think they make the cut I think they're ... willing to spend money on TV and are not going to spend nearly as much money does ... I again I just don't know ... if I don't get ... to ... find out the freezer to put the research out there copies or even damage the scene ... so we service in the ... business of making movies hasn't really fundamentally changed in the marketing is changing into why change now in the sense that people use more digital camera right Hostess change the law to all that but the fundamental ... aspect of putting actress traffic at all ... do you think the way that people are consuming media we talked a bit about with the DVR and Netflix and that's created more serialized dramas to think of when people are watching stuff on laptops and small screens ... in bite size chunks t think that will change the way movies are made to the stomach of ... yes I do in the same way that aam ... in my opinion music videos in the early eighties dramatically change the way the movies at that so priests Apple if you look at movies in the seventies for leading up to that period in ... the early eighties ... you'll notice has seen its plays itself out for six or seven minutes it seems interminable ... they ... are great ... but the movie has some of the fifth really worth while another movie since age at which they ... cut that piece out ... now ... the that the director is always ... wants to be slightly ahead of the audience and you'll never see are rarely see a scene that plays out ... for that link ... speeding though has ... been going on for awhile that you know that the direct result of ... music videos and all that other ... stuff ... so my suspicion is ... that ... all these different versions of seeing the unseen in the movies will actually have an effect on the creative side ... by ... the ... the thing that is impossible and I need to Jace is how any of this technology ... will affect either how people walk stopped ... for how the creative community will adapt to it ... you would never guess ... that the VRC DVR and Netflix would lead to the phenomenon that I that I think that's the aam inducing we've heard me say in the past I think that ... you know when the quartz watch came out everybody thought we'd all be reading digital off our phone call from her boxes ... the truth is most people in the audience probably as to why I haven't had a long face ... which of the I watched ... maybe I will say it will surprise us ... since you think it did people know care what size for him there watching something on it it could be distinguished for younger people that between watching and on the phone or watching tonight after watching the big TV ... I think it really depends on ... the snow ... the ... survey on TV ... and Nic and I am house live in eighteen sixty four to go ... they don't care whether it's a giant TV said Portsea little laptop ... makes a difference ... but it on a movie you're going to balance the hard and takes a life of Pi network James Bond ... which are not seen ... a sea of their plan or right ... I think most there are many people would say I wanna see that ... if ... I wanted to that ... it's free and they actually make that choice it would do all things being equal the power will lead to yet more more ... I'm going to be watching them on my laptop absolutely and a certain point convenience Windsor whenever you can see it wins them that ... if you ask for ... do people make distinctions I think that's where they make that ... choice but not an option and not on a lot of movies ... a lot of movies they just don't care they say ok that ... I can see there ... and have a good night out is the real reason I'm going for the Movies have a night out not necessarily to see the movie ... and if I'd miss it it's just it's time for me to see it on you know something the stock ... at an ... earlier question was in discussions with the audience ... regions that are listed here ... the offer to return to that which is good ... as the lockup ... five ... I noticed ... by Westerners Michael Montgomery ... Michael we worked together years ago ... hotel Transylvania the very successful mobile game but we haven't been any discussion about games here in relationship to up ... to marketing did you think it was important element of what to do or ... and when you think ... is the importance of ... deeming along with only the same time ... yes I did was ... went on to add to that question so we did the first time we really had good success with that with all Smurfs will be a ... couple summers ago ... and we ... and and that they put the game out early that the top for free and it got taken up ... aam in a big way and we discovered and was a way to introduce kids ... to the property ... and so we did it again with hotel TN that also works really well so ... from the promotional aspect completely so I don't ... pretend we don't make any money off it ... aam but that is even though for ... exactly right ... exactly right ... so that worked really well for us ... to prevent ... aam ... he mentioned the idea that the DVD sales were more strongly this seems like ... the moment ... for the moment but ... you know it's it's difficult to get that isn't present in a Christmas tree for example additional don't know yet ... but you should check your different ... I've that I think you get the awesome words I believe that but they're here physical or is there ... one reason also seemed to be that you actually own the film you can do something that that you know that holding your began anew by the Blu ray gutters ... I tried it wrote down the from from Sony or something like that from buying it from iTunes Adobe has been to Goa Duncan Amazon ... and ... I don't necessarily even know ... what quality and again so are we ever Guinea get to play where I can just buy that movie and have whatever platform I want to know that its mining is always to be in the Basque wanted to I'd have to keep buying ... the VHS in the DVD and then the Alessi tract he obviously gone but that the polluter in in whatever format you have ... yet they set to offer this day ... while in Russia ... now ... I so I could just backtrack for a moment the reason why I think DVD in addition many other reasons ... what's so successful for the studios was because ... in this country alone we had thirty to forty thousand outlets to sell and so they were ... widely available in a matter where you bought it ... aam you knew you could play it on whatever device with a DVD so it didn't matter whether it was a DVD play error or a laptop or in your car somewhere else and The Pauly level was a was this ... so ... that sort of ... ubiquity ... Telefónica gave rise to an enormous market ... you're absolutely right when you make this when you make the point about ... electronic sell through and the fact that ... a you don't necessarily know what the quality level is and b that ... there there's the problem in ... YouTube I hear you can't necessarily like it there so I think the next step in the service ultra violet is ... is a step in that in that direction ... is ... their house to be like an ATM ... where I can do now ... admittedly there there's a fee I wouldn't suggest we see where you I can put my card inning get my money from anywhere ... you have to have a service where ... you it doesn't matter when you buy it from Walmart was part of ultraviolet or another retailer ... ALM ... that once you put that movie up in the cloud with your name on it you can get in on any device on an access from any point and I think that battle comforting ... was that the worst of people who want to go to the Speed consortium yes um it's amazing that everybody got together in the boat everyone is neither another and another man and I was there that are not really do anything at correct me all those guiding ... isn't really working people or service advocates of it's it's it's ... you know it's I when it outlined its early days and are the issue is when you look at attacking interfaces ... so it can use all this problem about Apple German without this new journey yet technically veteran and works against ... the technical part it's easy and I think actually once he at once that was all I think parity at ... ten million plus people signed up the promise of not using ... backing are the reason you know it's it's not easy to use ... write ... to Ryan Lowe TechCrunch psychoanalysis question and ... a few minutes ago when Ted Sarandos was in the audience but I don't think he's here anymore ... can you explain what happened was like the euro to have two years ago you told your digital content from stars and then they pulled it from Netflix ... Mr. disappeared for awhile but ... now the news just on a new ... deal with Starz how you avoid that same type of situation especially when you look out on the Streisand eight to ten years when ... new technologies new platforms and distribution methods ... um making sure that your content can still ... you know ... reach all the consumers of like Gannett ... aam without bumping up into an as ... yet that well that was very specific what happened there was we had in our existing contract with Starz which is public ... a cap on the number of Internet subscribers that could be axed so when a data set distribution deal with Netflix Netflix suddenly ... grew astronomically ... aam and we all know ... that various reasons why people say grew ... they bumped into that's obstruct subscriber ... you are helping the euro will take your stuff up right you thought that that that deal with Apple was you your movies were devalued by Netflix's only me yet ... so aam ... so ... going fall word ... I think you'll see that those subscriber caps come off because now we feel that we're going to be able to get ... paid for ... Internet subscribers where is the past ... that was part of the underlying deal that was heard on the landscape so we're putting that it needs protection because we know exactly what the world looks like going forward ... it'll be easier for us in sight to see it happening again ... one last question re read them ... um Michael earlier you talked a little marketing mix and within the advertising community planning most most folks to see a spectrum of ... really are a lot are alike focused advertisers like and packaged goods or the retail and probably the ad for coal is perceived as ... any one of the less rational or ... our allies focused ... TDTT Tyson mortgage when you're makes that ... those kinds of approaches that seem more like me the package that might become more part of how ... the new wall spend ... towards um the actor me that we knew we we would use our alliance or get new format that it seems the more historically case and other things maybe that's unfair I don't know what I know I think it's I think it's it's cracked up ... opening a movie is and people sat before me as a lot like ... running a political campaign you basically have one shot to get it right ... so ... that inherently makes the whole thing slightly chaotic and that apparently makes the whole thing ... slightly inefficient because you either get that thing open on that weekend where you're done for ... aam and as a result I would predict were always going to be on the wrong side of that span ... that being said I'm ... metrics in general not just because of Web based out but also having to do with television ... is getting are getting better and better ... aam ... and were being able to match or better better the effectiveness of advertising ... that that the that bizarre thing that's going on at the moment and this is that which I was mentioning earlier is where having a tremendous ... problem right now in my opinion Another people might disagree with me what tracking ... where you know those for five weeks leading up to a movie which is where we sort of ... figure out whether we're spending enough against this demo that demo ... based upon where the movie is tracking ... the plane is landing ... aam on a consistent basis we we where we think it's gonna land based on track and ... I think the next big step in the evolution one of the steps is going to be working with the research companies to figure out how to get a tracking mechanism to work better ... it's never gonna be a euro wiping because ... remember the big difference for us purses the packaged goods company as ... they are selling the same thing over and over and over and over and over again so they are looking at the long term value to the brand sales ... we've got this ... three or four weeks of the movies in the movie theater ... ominous is that that's out the catwalk Skyfall and more so the are like calculation becomes a little bit difficult ... great ... thank the much ...


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Critics of the Republican-led General Assembly allege that the teacher-pay raise included in this year�s state budget could have been implemented in a much simpler fashion: by giving across-the-board hikes to all rather than giving large raises to early-career teachers and relatively small raises to some experienced ones.
The critics are correct. Across-the-board raises would have been simpler. But that doesn�t mean they would have been the best policy. You see, North Carolina�s system for compensating teachers didn�t just need an influx of money. It needed wholesale restructuring.
Until last year, North Carolina used an archaic and counterproductive system for compensating teachers. The pay scale had 37 steps. Teachers began at a relatively low salary ($30,800 in 2013-14) and then, after receiving tenure, received small but steady annual bumps. For most teachers, it took 15 years for their salaries to reach $40,000. There were a couple of ways to speed up the process, however. One was to obtain a graduate degree, typically in education. The other was to achieve national board certification.
The pay scale was, in other words, weighted heavily towards years of experience and credentials. Unfortunately, experience and credentials do not strongly correlate with teacher effectiveness. Among 132 studies on the subject, published in peer-reviewed journals over the past 25 years, 59 percent found no consistent relationship between teacher experience and student performance (teachers tend to get a lot better during their first few years but then the rate of improvement declines or disappears). The research on graduate degrees was clearer still. More than 80 percent of 114 studies found that teachers with advanced degrees were no better at teaching students than those without them. Board certification fared better. Slightly more than half of studies on the subject found positive effects.
Given these insights, derived from the work of scholars across the ideological spectrum, North Carolina lawmakers decided to change the pay scale. Junking the 37 post-tenure steps, they created a flatter schedule consisting of six broad bands. The starting salary jumps by more than 7 percent, to $33,000, and will rise another 7 percent in 2015-16. The next band, for those with five to nine years of experience, offers a base pay of $36,500. Teachers in this category will receive double-digit hikes this year. The third band starts at year 10 and offers a base salary of $40,000. (Remember that it previously took 15 years to get to that point.)
While retaining the bonus for board certification, lawmakers allowed the graduate-degree bonus to lapse, except for teachers who were already in the process of earning one. What will replace it? Legislative leaders and the McCrory administration envision a system in which teachers will receive pay bumps for taking on tough jobs � such as working in high-poverty schools or teaching difficult courses � and for performance in the classroom as identified by principal evaluations, value-added test scores, or both.
This strategy for reforming teacher compensation is based on empirical evidence and focused squarely on the goal of maximizing student success. In their 2012 study for the journal Educational Policy , Jason Grissom of Vanderbilt and Katharine Strunk of UCLA found that school systems with �front-loaded� pay scales like North Carolina just adopted tend to achieve superior student outcomes. �Relative to a back-loaded salary structure,� they write, �a front-loaded schedule should allow for a more efficient allocation of district budgets by saving funds that might otherwise yield little return when allocated to veteran teachers� salaries and putting those dollars to more productive, student achievement-enhancing uses.�
But the strategy does have adversaries. Teacher unions detest pay differentials based on subject matter or individual performance. Schools of education thrived on the artificial demand for graduate degrees created by the previous teacher bonuses.
Until these reform opponents can come up with more persuasive arguments than �we�ve always done it this way� or �shut up and do what we want,� my sense is that most members of the General Assembly are committed to the teacher-pay reforms begun in 2014 and welcome the chance to explain them to voters this fall.
Hood is president of the John Locke Foundation.


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OCEAN CITY – The frequency of public comment periods at city government meetings was questioned this week with one councilman wanting to create a consistent policy for all government meetings.
During a discussion on the expansion of a bus stop located on Somerset St. between Baltimore and Philadelphia avenues, a citizen asked to speak on the topic and was turned down.
Once the vote was taken on the subject, Councilman Brent Ashley interjected that the Town of Ocean City's code states that during public meetings the public is allowed to comment.
City Solicitor Guy Ayres responded the public is allowed to speak during a reserved time at the conclusion of Mayor and City Council legislative meetings traditionally held on Monday evenings every other week. Ayres said that was sufficient enough to meet the code requirements.
There is not a reserved time for public comments during Mayor and City Council work sessions held on Tuesday afternoons every other week, although Ayres said that would also be sufficient under the charter.
"A work session is actually a council meeting so the public should have an opportunity to comment if they so desire," Ashley said. "I would like the council to consider setting aside time at the end of a work session for the public to comment similar to Monday night meetings."
Councilwoman Margaret Pillas asserted she didn't feel public comments should have to be put off to the end of a meeting. She said the city should allow five minutes of speaking time per citizen during the agenda item they wish to comment on.
"Your department heads could be leaving. We are going to hold them in here until the end of the meeting, and then maybe change the vote … we would be adding hours for our department heads to sit here," she said.
Council President Lloyd Martin acknowledged concerns over allowing adequate speaking time for the public at work sessions and asked to give him time to talk it over with City Manager David Recor before a final decision is made.
Pillas disagreed and urged Ashley to make a motion to move the thought forward, promising a second. Ashley made a motion to allow members of public to speak for five minutes on specific agenda items during work sessions.
Councilwoman Mary Knight suggested including in the motion that the request go to Recor first with his recommendation to return to the council for a final vote. Pillas refused to allow the motion to be amended and pushed for it to go to vote without the city manager's input. Ashley agreed.
Martin and Recor have already discussed the matter, and Recor has a couple of ideas to bring before the council, including allowing citizen comments at the beginning of the meeting so that their thoughts have already been in place as the agenda items approach.
"You want to have this discussion now?," Recor asked as the discussion was pushed upon him.
Recor reminded the council an upcoming strategic planning session was approaching on Feb. 1 and topics such as this are scheduled to be discussed. He added that there are a number of different ways to handle public comments.
"The regularly scheduled meetings of the Mayor and Council are your meetings and the agenda items aside from matters that are scheduled for public hearing are your discussion items," he said. "When the public gets up and is allowed to interact with the council during the presentation outside of a public hearing, it can sometimes become disruptive … at the end of the meeting then there are the general comments from the public."
Recor emphasized the word "comment", not questions, not debate, and not dialogue. If there are questions asked, Recor takes them down and follows up, as he has done in the past.
"The whole idea of that is not to limit public participation but to ensure the smooth conduct of the government's process," he said.
Councilman Dennis Dare agreed there should be room for public participation during work sessions but would not support the motion on the floor.
"We need to go through the strategic planning process and then allow the council president and city manager to bring forth some suggestions," he said.
Dare proposed allowing members of the public to sign up ahead of time to speak on an agenda item at the time it is presented, which is practiced by other municipalities.
The council voted down the motion in a 4-2-1 vote with Pillas and Ashley opposed and Joe Mitrecic abstaining.
Mayor Rick Meehan believed the intention of the motion was good but believed in Recor's recommendation to follow through the strategic planning process to come up with a public comment concept that all seven members of the council can agree on.
Dare made a motion to have the city manager work with the council president with the input from the strategic planning meetings to enhance citizen participation during council meetings. The council voted 5-2 to approve the motion with Ashley and Pillas in opposition.


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NASA / GSFC / LaRC / JPL / MISR
A stereo picture from the Multi-angle Imaging Spectroradiometer aboard NASA's Terra shows an ash plume rising from Sicily's Mount Etna Volcano on Oct. 29, 2002. Wear red-blue glasses to see the 3-D effect.
A plume of volcanic ash pops off the page in a classic 3-D picture documenting the eruption of Sicily's Mount Etna. The image, captured by an instrument on NASA's Terra satellite on Oct. 29, 2002, illustrates how adding the third dimension comes in handy for scientific observations as well as multimillion-dollar movies.
You need standard red-blue glasses to experience the stereo effect, but once you put on your specs, you're in for a treat: The 3-D view makes it easier to judge the relative heights of the ash plume and the surrounding clouds.
If you don't have special glasses, you can still get a sense of the volcano's power by checking out the 2-D, natural-color view from Terra's Multi-angle Imaging Spectroradiometer. There's even a 3-second QuickTime animation that puts together a series of snaps from the satellite flyover.
Satellites play a key role in tracking potentially dangerous natural phenomena around the world, including volcanoes. You can bet that Earth-observing satellites are keeping watch on three volcanoes that have recently started acting up: Mount Tungurahua in Ecuador, Mount Lokon in Indonesia and Mount Tolbachik in Russia. For the latest on all three, check out volcanologist Erik Klemetti's update on the Eruptions blog.
This picture of Etna was the focus of today's "Where in the Cosmos" contest on the Cosmic Log Facebook page. It took a few minutes for Hong Yaw Lim, Ryan Posey and Krystyn Allison-In Oneness to identify the mystery volcano, but to reward their efforts, I'm sending them pairs of cardboard 3-D glasses, provided courtesy of Microsoft Research's WorldWide Telescope project. Press the "like" button for the Facebook page and get ready for the next 3-D glasses giveaway after the first of the year.
This is also today's offering from the Cosmic Log Space Advent Calendar, which features a different view of Earth from space every day from now until Christmas. For more visual treats, check out the links below:
- 2012 Cosmic Log Space Advent Calendar
- Day 1: A fantastic Chinese fan
- Day 2: Satellite shows a Grander Canyon
- Day 3: Typhoon stirs awe — and alarm
- Day 4: Glittering nighttime view of Riyadh
- Day 5: Night lights shine on 'Black Marble'
- Day 6: Holy sites seen at night
- Day 7: Blue Marble still leaves its mark
- Day 8: Satellites look into a volcano's hell
- Day 9: Jack Frost nipping at Alaska's nose
- Day 10: Cosmonaut looks down on peaks
- Day 11: Earth looms above moonwalker
- Day 12: Skytree casts shadow on Tokyo
- Day 13: Aurora sets stage for meteor show
- Day 14: Apollo's last look at Earthrise
- Day 15: A sobering moment from space
- Day 16: Middle Earth spotted from orbit
- 2011 Cosmic Log Space Advent Calendar
- 2010 Cosmic Log Space Advent Calendar
- The Atlantic: Hubble Advent Calendar
- Zooniverse Advent Calendar
Alan Boyle is NBCNews.com's science editor. Connect with the Cosmic Log community by "liking" the log's Facebook page, following @b0yle on Twitter and adding the Cosmic Log page to your Google+ presence. To keep up with Cosmic Log as well as NBCNews.com's other science and space news coverage, sign up for the Tech & Science newsletter, delivered via email. You can also check out "The Case for Pluto," my book about dwarf planets and the search for new worlds.


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This thread is dedicated to the history and geography of the Sauric Isles campaign. This is meant to give other homebrewers who want to contribute to the project an idea of what is going on. Other things that will eventually be included in this thread are ways of adapting this into a subcampaign setting in a normal world (similar to the Hollow World setting taking part in Mystara), how the Isles interact with the rest of the campaign world, and who it reacts with the planes.
This is reserved for the History of the Sauric Isles.


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UNCW Names Aswani Volety as Dean of UNCW's College of Arts and Sciences
Tuesday, February 18, 2014
Aswani Volety has been selected as the next Dean of UNCW's College of Arts and Sciences, the University announced today. Volety, who currently serves as Interim Dean of Florida Gulf Coast University's (FGCU) College of Arts and Sciences, and as the Director of Vester Marine and Environmental Sciences Field Station, will step into his new role on July 1, 2014.
"We look forward to having Aswani join us as the Dean of UNCW's largest college," said Chancellor Gary L. Miller. "His distinguished career and research background align well with the needs of the College of Arts and Sciences. Aswani's strong leadership skills are a vital asset and will greatly contribute to the continued growth and success of the college and the university as a whole."
Volety was named Interim Dean at FGCU in January 2013 and serves as the chief academic, fiscal and administrative officer of that institution's College of Arts and Sciences. He completed the re-organization of the College to provide strategic focus to departments and facilitated faculty research, while working with the Office of Research and Graduate studies to provide funding for arts, humanities and social science for special projects, and seed money for grant and professional development for faculty across the college.
"I am honored to join UNCW's academic leadership team to advance the university's vision for its students, staff and faculty," said Volety. "I look forward to working closely with faculty, staff and students from across the College of Arts and Sciences to foster an innovative culture and engage in applied learning as we grow and strengthen the many programs that teach our students to be responsible global citizens."
In his new role, Volety will provide leadership and vision for the College, working with faculty and staff to advance UNCW's standing as an institution recognized regionally and nationally for the quality of its teaching, research and service programs. He will be responsible for overseeing curriculum and program development, accreditation and assessment, faculty and staff matters, budget administration, academic facilities planning and use, strategic planning for the College, and fundraising and resource development initiatives.
Prior to being named Interim Dean, Volety was a professor and the Chair of FGCU's Department of Marine and Ecological Sciences. His research expertise includes shellfish diseases, physiology, immunopathology, toxicology, and management and restoration of shellfish habitat. He is an accomplished scholar and has been funded by various federal, state and private agencies such as the National Research Council, National Science Foundation, Environmental Protection agency, Sea Grant, National Fish and Wildlife Foundation, and National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration.
Volety is also a proposal reviewer for various state and federal agencies and of manuscripts for journals including Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry, Comparative Biochemistry and Physiology, Journal of Shellfish Research, Marine Environmental Research, and Estuaries.
Volety graduated from the College of William & Mary with a Doctorate in Marine Science. He received his Master's degree in Zoology with a Specialization in Marine Biology and his Bachelor of Science degree from Andhra University in India. Volety also earned a Graduate Certificate in Management Development from the Graduate School of Education at Harvard University.
Volety was named after an extensive nationwide search and will inherit the role from Sociology and Criminology professor Stephen McNamee. McNamee, who will return to his faculty role, has been serving as the Interim Dean since June 1, 2013, following the departure of David Cordle, who was appointed Provost and Vice President for Academic Affairs at Emporia State University in Emporia, Kansas.


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The Forex world is constantly evolving and during its weekly trading hours there is a wealth of news a trader must keep on top of if they want to make the most money possible. Indeed, because the market can be affected by a number of dynamics, it is essential they know exactly what's happening at all times in order to avoid any unprofitable deals.
For example, let's assume the US Dollar is trading well against the Great British Pound during the first half of the week. This would be a good time to invest some money and reap the benefits of a positive market condition. However, by Wednesday a series of negative news stories emerge from the UK and affect the country's economic performance. These dynamics then adversely affects how well the two currencies are trading. At this point it's important to know what's just happened because it will influence whether or not someone should cease trading this currency pair for a while or continue.
Knowing the value of each currency based on various internal and external factors is crucial and the reason why FXBrokerSearch.com's Forex news centre is a vital resource. Drawing on a number of resources, our information section provides the latest information and data from which users can refine their trading activity.
Beyond shifts in the currency market itself, FXBrokerSearch.com's new section has been designed to give traders an insight into the best offers and promotions. By monitoring each of our 200+ Forex brokers we're able to quickly tell users about the latest updates and bonuses.
By compiling all this current data into one portal we believe investors will be able to make even more money in the Forex market. Indeed, thanks to our dedicated team of analysts and experts, users can find out the latest market developments as well as the best deals in the industry. Putting all this together should help everyone gain a better understanding of the market, which in turn should give them the ability to make even more money.
Russia claims that the ground-based missile system is capable of intercepting hypersonic missiles, drones, aircraft as well as stealth warplanes like the F-22 and the F-35. ..
A Portland, Oregon family has claimed that their Amazon Echo recorded a ..
President Trump speaks at the White House about his decision to cancel his highly anticipated meeting with North Korean dictator Kim Jong-Un. ..
Tesla CEO Elon Musk has been on an extended Twitter rant against critics of the company. Tesla CEO Elon Musk now appears to think the media is his enemy. The whole thing spe ..
Former CIA Analyst Sue Mi Terry and Sung-Yoon Lee of Tufts University discuss factors contributing to President Trump canceling the summit in June with Kim Jong Un. ..
Pretty much everything is going right for the memory maker, but at its analyst day, key executives outlined how things can get even better. ..
Wednesday was the 16th anniversary of Netflix's initial public offering. Wednesday was the 16th anniversary of Netflix's initial public offering, and an investor buying in th ..
Boeing's new 777X aircraft will have an expanded 235-foot wingspan and the ability to fold it up. The new 777s are positioned to compete with Airbuses' larger A380 aircraft, w ..
Look at your TV right now, if you can. If it's on, turn it off. Gaze upon that ..
In September, the federal government will mail a handbook on Medicare enrollment to 43 million households. "Medicare & You" is an important, authoritative source on a wide ..
Risk Disclosure: fxBrokerSearch.com will not be held liable for any financial loss or damage caused by users acting upon any information contained within this website, not limited to and including: all numerical data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals. Moreover, please be advised that Forex trading is one of the most volatile investment forms in the world and all trades should be placed with full consideration of the risks and costs.
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While every effort has been made to ensure all our data is as accurate as possible, fxBrokerSearch.com cannot be held responsible for any prices that are not in line with real-time data. Indeed, the currency exchange market is constantly changing and all CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are set by market makers.
This means advertised prices may not be accurate and could differ from the actual market conditions. For this reason it is not appropriate to rely on any data presented by fxBrokerSearch.com for the purposes of trading.
Based on these conditions, fxBrokerSearch.com will not be held responsible for any losses incurred through trades conducted in light of data presented on this site.


text:
Michael Jordan skipping Tahoe celeb golf in July
Jordan has played in 17 celeb tournaments on shores of Lake Tahoe
Michael Jordan is skipping the celebrity golf tournament at Lake Tahoe next month for the first time in seven years.
Tournament officials announced in a statement Monday a scheduling appearance will prevent the NBA hall of famer from playing in the 24th annual American Century Championship at Edgewood Tahoe Golf Course July 19-21. No other details were released.
Jordan has played in 17 previous celebrity tournaments on the shores of Lake Tahoe. His best finish was ninth when he debuted in 1990. That was the summer before he consecutively won two of his career five NBA MVP awards.
Other regulars committed this year include Charles Barkley, Jerry Rice, John Elway and Ray Romano.
Michael Phelps, the 18-time Olympic swimming gold medal winner, plans to play for the first time.


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System Builder: 2006 Dodge Ram 1500 ST Quad Cab
Americans love trucks. Whether they're for carrying stuff, commuting, or just cruising, pickups are so popular that they've been the best-selling vehicles in the US for almost 30 years. For this installment of System Builder, we picked the '06 Dodge Ram 1500 ST Quad Cab (sticker price: $22,050) for an audio-system makeover. The base model comes with a stock CD radio and four speakers, so we asked two shops - one in the big city of Chicago and another in the bayou country of Louisiana - to come up with $1,500 and $5,000 sound-system upgrades. One thing's for sure: Each Ram overhaul sure packs plenty of jam per dollar.
$1,500 Upgrade
The Setup
|$160 Eclipse SE8495 6x9-inch four-way speakers (front doors) $100 Eclipse SE8355 5.25-inch three-way speakers (rear doors) $40 PowerAcoustik NB-1 1-inch tweeters $300 Two Rockford Fosgate P210D4 10-inch subwoofers $200 Custom subwoofer box $280 Planet Audio VX2004 amplifier $40 Two PAC SNI-15 line-output converters $90 Hooker Audio amplifier installation kit $20 Stinger Bass Blocker capacitors $270 Installation labor and materials
For low bass, Bienvenu would build a custom box that fits underneath the back seat to house two 10-inch subwoofers. "All you'd see is a little bit of carpeting," he explains. "It integrates into the truck very nicely." A four-channel amplifier that powers all of the speakers (and takes the signal from the Ram's stock CD radio after it passes through a line-output converter) would be hidden under the driver's seat. "That leaves the passenger's side open if the owner ever wants to add another amplifier," Bienvenu observes. "It also has more room than the passenger's side, and it's easier to work on, especially when you're trying to dial in the setting on the built-in crossover."
Bienvenu would also add passive filters to fine-tune as well as protect the speakers. "I'll put a capacitor on the 6x9s, the 5.25s, and the tweeters to filter out any unwanted low frequencies," he says. "Plus, if the customers play with the crossover on the amp, they won't destroy the speakers."
As for future upgrades, Bienvenu says that adding a good aftermarket head unit (read: receiver) would bump up the price another $200 to $300. "Then," he adds, "you can add satellite radio and, depending on which radio you choose, an iPod." But of course.


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The Festival of Britain opened on 3 May 1951, 60 years ago this month. The summer-long, nationwide festival was held to demonstrate the contribution made by the British to civilisation in the arts, science and industrial design. It aimed to show a modern Britain, bouncing back after the hardships of the Second World War.
The National Archives is marking the anniversary of the festival in a variety of ways. Records in WORK 25 detail the planning and organisation of the festival and include some vibrant artwork. Our Festival of Britain podcast uses these records to explore the festival's key themes. If you plan to visit The National Archives at Kew, drop into our on site museum to see some of the records, which will be on display until 1 July. You can also see a selection of images from WORK 25 in our image library.
Finally, we are holding a Festival of Britain promotion in our online bookshop. Discounted items include 'Beacon for Change', released this month to commemorate the anniversary, and 'London in Festival Year 1951', a DVD of films celebrating the festival.


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Brandy is sick of her stepdaughter Darcie always sneaking in past curfew and wearing slutty clothes that show off her big tits and round ass. But Brandy was once Darcie's age and knows exactly what Darcie is chasing after: a nice hard fucking. Who better to give it to her than her own loving stepmom? Collapse
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Fiji Flooding - Outstanding Contribution from Volunteers
Projects Abroad's volunteers in Fiji have made an exceptional effort with their Flood Relief Donation Campaign in aiding local Fijians who have been affected by the recent flooding. Volunteers had a brilliant idea of setting up a camp at Nadi International Airport where they had a very successful day collecting money, clothes, food, water, as well as a number of other donations.
The volunteers attracted the attention of many hundreds of people passing through the airport by singing and dancing and have received enormous support from everyone involved.
Later in the week volunteers delivered the goods to families in the Waqadra area; all their donations were gratefully received by the local community. Additional items were bought by Projects Abroad staff and volunteers in order to make sure there was plenty to go around and to show their support.
Projects Abroad's Social Manager in Fiji is delighted with the work of the volunteers and states, 'we applaud each one of them for their tireless efforts in making such outstanding contributions toward Fiji in the time when help is needed the most'.


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Final filtering of water for distribution is efficiently assisted by the Grundfos ranges of high-capacity pumps offering any pressure for any flow. Filtering processes range from a simple physical barrier to chemical or biological processes.
Grundfos can supply pumping solutions to cope with the hugely varying flow requirements of water to be filtered, ranging from huge split-case and mixed-flow pumps, where the focus is on moving water rather than added pressure, to our highly successful vertical multistage centrifugal pump (CR) – and covering all performance requirements in between.
Grundfos can supply the specialist expertise to help meet your performance objectives, from the initial identification of needs, to the selection, installation, operation, and maintenance of the pumping solution. Grundfos commissioning agreements ensure correct installation and service agreements cover all eventualities, from routine maintenance to spare parts and pump audits.
Water Treatment Applications
Water Treatment Applications
Pumps in Water Treatment
Water treatment with the pump as a central element.
Take a step back...
And see the bigger picture. Grundfos Water Utility profile brochure.


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|Pin It
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Pink Polka Dots with Cross Stickers
This fun baptism sticker features a pink polka dotted background with a white scalloped cross in the center. These round stickers work great as return address labels or envelope seals.
Ideal For:Baptism Stickers, Baptism Return Address Labels
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AURORA, Colo. — Hundreds of mourners gathered at vigils for the victims of the shootings at a suburban Denver theater showing the latest Batman movie.
At the Queen of Peace Roman Catholic church in Aurora, a few miles from the shooting, more than 1,000 mourners gathered Friday evening for a memorial Mass. Newly installed Denver Archbishop Samuel Aquila told mourners dabbing their eyes: "Blessed are those who mourn, for they will be comforted."
He says "the heart of our Father is stronger than the bullets that killed 12 people."
Near the entrance to the theater's parking lot, a makeshift memorial of 12 candles sat in a row near piles of flowers. Up the hill, about 20 pastors led an emotional vigil for about 350 people, some hugging and crying.


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The open wire design of these carbon- steel shelves minimizes dust accumulation and allows a free circulation of air, greater visibility of stored items and greater light penetration. Wire shelving can change as quickly as your needs. Posts have grooves at 1" intervals. A tapered split sleeve snaps together around each post. Tapered openings in the shelf corners slide over the tapered split sleeves providing a positive lock. Shelf is assembled in minutes without the use of any special tools. Shelf wires run front to back, allowing you to slide items on and off shelves smoothly. Unit comes complete with 4 shelves. Shelves are accessible from all sides making maximum use of storage space. Bolt levelers compensate for uneven surfaces on stationary posts. Posts also available for mobile shelving. Call for details. Choose from Chrome, Green Epoxy or Powder Coat Black finish. FOB Shipping Point.
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Hmm, interesting. Enemy ships jumping about spoiling your aim. Enemy missile ships jumping in and releasing a broadside then jumping out again. Nasty. But also drones or autons jumping in and out. Good. Filed for future consideration. Thanks.gunship256 wrote:Salvager Nomads will install intact weapons and shields they find if the items are higher-level than what they already have installed. It would be pretty funny and possibly annoying if they could instantly jump from one place to another. It would definitely be broken if a Salvager jumped in the direction the playership was facing instead of the direction its own ship was facing.
Using the capacitor code is a great idea. Be aware that the graphic it uses is annoying rather than useful if the recharge time is less than about a second.
Go for it, Peter. This is one of the best original ideas I've seen.


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We originally published an article by this title in the Fall 1996 issue of Sawtooth Solutions. Interest in that paper along with a steady flow of new developments in the conjoint analysis field have led us to update this piece now six times.
For an excellent six-minute video introduction to conjoint analysis, see:
There are multiple conjoint analysis approaches. Depending on your project, one method might work better than another. Among other things, sample size, complexity of the attribute list, length of the survey, and mode of interviewing (device-based or paper-based) lead researchers to select one flavor of conjoint analysis in favor of another.
An interactive adviser on our website helps guide the decision of conjoint method is found here: Interactive Advisor. This article provides greater depth for understanding the issues involved with choosing a conjoint analysis approach.
Conjoint analysis has become one of the most widely used quantitative tools in marketing research. According to recent Sawtooth Software customer surveys, we estimate that from 10,000 to 13,000 conjoint studies are conducted each year by our customers. When used properly, it provides reliable and useful results. There are multiple conjoint methods. Just as the golfer doesn't rely on a single club, the conjoint researcher should weigh each research situation and pick the appropriate tool.
We at Sawtooth Software have been producing a variety of conjoint analysis systems since 1985. The older systems involve rating product concepts on sliding scales (such as 1 to 9) or on a 100-point scale. Our newer systems ask respondents to choose products from a choice scenario or menu. Although many still use older ratings-based approaches and there is evidence they can work well when designed and executed correctly, the vast majority of researchers today favor the choice-based approaches.
The Classic Ratings-Based Systems
Paul Green and colleagues introduced the first method of conjoint analysis to the market research community in the early 1970s. It involved asking respondents to rate (or rank) a series of concept cards (where each card displayed a product concept consisting of multiple attributes). Respondents typically rated between a dozen to thirty cards described on up to somewhere around six attributes.
Watch (the late) Paul Green describe a very early conjoint analysis project for the Bissel company (carpet sweepers & cleaners).
At the time, Paul Green and colleagues felt respondents couldn't deal with more than about six attributes without resorting to problematic simplification strategies. But, perhaps the greater limitation was that increasing the number of attributes meant that even more cards had to be presented to respondents to obtain good results. At some point, respondents would burn out and not give good responses to increasingly deeper decks of cards. This first conjoint technique was called "card-sort conjoint." Sawtooth Software's CVA system does this flavor of conjoint analysis, as well as an extension involving paired comparison judgments, where respondents compare two cards at a time. The traditional ratings-based conjoint method still is used today, albeit infrequently. Our annual tracking survey of our customers found that CVA-type studies accounted for 3% of the conjoint analysis studies conducted last year.
In 1985, Sawtooth Software released an adaptive ratings-based conjoint analysis software system called ACA (Adaptive Conjoint Analysis). ACA went on to become the most popular conjoint software tool and method throughout the 1990s. ACA's main advantage was its ability to measure more attributes than was advisable with the earlier card-sort conjoint approach. With ACA, it was possible to study a dozen to two-dozen attributes, while still keeping the respondent engaged and providing good data. ACA accomplished this by having varying sections of the interview that adapted to respondents' previous answers. Each section presented only one or a few attributes at a time so as not to overwhelm the respondent with too much information at once. The software led the respondent through a systematic investigation over all attributes, resulting in a full set of preference scores for the levels of interest (part-worth utilities) by the end of the interview.
In terms of limitations, the foremost was that ACA needed to be computer-administered. The interview adapts to respondents' previous answers, which cannot be done via paper-and-pencil. Like most traditional conjoint approaches, ACA is a main-effects model. This means that part-worth utilities for attributes are measured in an "all else equal" context, without the inclusion of attribute interactions. This can be limiting for some pricing studies where it is sometimes important to estimate price sensitivity for each brand in the study. ACA also exhibited another limitation with respect to pricing studies: when price was included as just one of many variables, its importance was likely to be understated, and the degree of understatement increased as the number of attributes studied increased.
Some researchers continue to use ACA today: our recent tracking survey shows that ACA accounted for 2% of all conjoint studies conducted by our customers last year. But, these researchers tend to avoid pricing applications and also take care to implement the latest best practices for ACA research. For example, the self-explicated importance questions near the beginning of the interview have been problematic if not administered well. The ACA documentation and recent white papers from Sawtooth Software discuss methods to improve this potentially troublesome area. Despite the historical importance of ACA, newer techniques have generally proven to work better and be more popular in practice: CBC and ACBC (Adaptive CBC).
Choice-Based Conjoint (CBC)
Choice-Based Conjoint analysis started to become popular in the early 1990s and since about 2000 became the most widely used conjoint technique in the world (accounting for 79% of conjoint analysis studies conducted by our customers last year). CBC questions closely mimic the purchase process for products in competitive contexts. Instead of rating or ranking product concepts, respondents are shown a set of products on the screen and asked to indicate which one they would purchase:
If you were shopping for a credit card, and these were your only options, which would you choose?
NONE: I wouldn't choose any of these.
This example shows just three product concepts and a "None." As in the real world, respondents can decline to purchase in a CBC interview by choosing "None."
We have posted an excellent interactive example of CBC for introducing the technique at: http://www.sawtoothsoftware.com/surveys/baseball/login.html . This example includes a 9-question CBC survey and displays counting scores for your choices (or for a group of people if you provide a groupID at the start of the survey).
If the aim of conjoint research is to predict product or service choices, it seems natural to use data resulting from choices. Many CBC projects (especially packaged goods research) will involve showing a dozen or more products on the screen, often graphically displayed as if they were on physical shelves of a store. We generally recommend, whenever it is possible and realistic, that researchers show more rather than fewer product concepts per choice task.
Despite the benefits of choice data, they contain less information than ratings per unit of respondent effort. After evaluating multiple product concepts, the respondent tells us which one is preferred. We do not learn whether it was strongly or just barely preferred to the others; nor do we learn the relative preference among the rejected alternatives.
Our CBC system can include up to 10 attributes with 15 levels each (unless using the Advanced Design Module, where up to 250 attributes with 254 levels per attribute are permitted), though we'd never recommend you challenge these limits. CBC can be administered via CAPI or Internet surveys, or via paper‑and‑pencil. CBC can be analyzed by pooling (aggregating) the choices across respondents via counting or aggregate logit. This is often a valuable place to begin as you start to analyze a CBC survey. For their final models, most CBC researchers estimate individual-level part-worth utility scores using hierarchical Bayes, which is a built-in feature of our CBC software. Some researchers also investigate underlying market segments with relatively homogeneous preferences via the available latent class analysis option.
Partial-Profile CBC
Many researchers that favor choice-based conjoint rather than ratings-based approaches have looked for ways to increase the number of attributes that can be measured effectively using CBC. One solution that gained some following over the last two decades is partial-profile CBC (an option within our CBC software). With partial-profile CBC, each choice question includes a subset of the total number of attributes being studied. These attributes are randomly rotated into the tasks, so across all tasks in the survey each respondent typically considers all attributes and levels.
The problem with partial-profile CBC is that the data are spread quite thin, because each task has many attribute omissions, and the response is still the less informative (though more natural) 0/1 choice. As a result, partial-profile CBC often requires larger sample sizes to stabilize results, and individual-level estimation under HB doesn't always produce stable individual-level part-worths. Despite these shortcomings, some researchers who used to use ACA for studying many attributes shifted to partial-profile choice. The individual-level parameters have less stability than with ACA, but if the main goal is achieving accurate market simulations (and large enough samples are used), some researchers are willing to give up the individual-level stability.
Lately, we've come to realize that partial-profile CBC studies may be subject to a similar price bias as ACA (though not as pronounced). Recent split-sample studies presented at the Sawtooth Software conferences have shown that price tends to carry less weight, relative to the other attributes, when estimated under partial-profile CBC rather than full-profile. Furthermore, partial-profile methods assume that respondents can ignore omitted attributes and base their choice solely on the partial information presented in each task. If respondents cannot, then this biases the final part-worth utilities. For this and other reasons, most researchers and academics favor full-profile conjoint techniques that display all attributes being studied within each choice task.
Adaptive CBC (ACBC)
Choice-based rather than ratings-based conjoint methods have become dominant in our industry. Yet, standard CBC questionnaires can seem tedious to respondents, repetitive, and to lack relevance. The same-looking choice tasks repeat and repeat. Products shown to respondents seem all "over the board" and not very often near what the respondent actually wants.
Recently, Sawtooth Software developed a new approach called Adaptive CBC (ACBC), leveraging aspects of adaptive conjoint analysis (ACA) and CBC. According to our tracking survey, 13% of conjoint analysis studies conducted by our customers employed ACBC. ACBC first asks respondents to identify the product closest to their ideal using a configurator (Build Your Own—BYO) question. The BYO task also serves as an excellent training exercise, to acquaint respondents with the attributes and levels being studied. Next, we build typically a couple dozen product concepts for the respondent to consider, all quite similar (near neighbors) to the BYO product. Respondents indicate which of those they would consider. Considered products are taken forward to a choice tournament to identify the overall best concept, where the choice tournament tasks look very much like standard CBC tasks.
Recent evidence suggests that respondents find the ACBC interview more engaging and realistic, even though the interview generally takes longer than CBC to complete. But, sample size requirements are smaller than standard CBC, because more information is captured from each individual. More information at the individual level also leads to better segmentation work. Early evidence also suggests validity (accuracy of predicting actual sales) on par or slightly better than CBC. Furthermore, ACBC interviews directly capture what percent of respondents find each attribute level to be "must have" or "unacceptable."
ACBC is generally useful when your project involves about five or more attributes. Projects involving fewer attributes, especially brand + package + price probably work better using the standard CBC method.
Menu-Based Choice (MBC)
There are many things that are bought today from menus, where buyers select from one to many options to assemble the final product to purchase. Restaurant menus are a classic example. Computers, cars, insurance policies, cable/internet/phone service are others. Such menus can investigate complex issues such as mixed bundling, where buyers can purchase pre-configured bundles at a discount or buy individual components a la carte.
If you face a situation where buyers typically face a menu instead of a single choice among pre-defined product configurations, then your conjoint questionnaire should also mimic that buying process. Trying to force the study into the discrete choice format of CBC would probably be counterproductive. The context of menu choice is different from CBC, leading to different utility effects and predictions of buyer behavior.
Sawtooth Software offers an MBC (Menu-Based Choice) analysis package. It is the most flexible and advanced conjoint analysis software we've produced. MBC studies accounted for 3% of the conjoint analysis studies conducted by our customers last year. MBC studies can be quite complex to design, program, and analyze properly. They also often require larger sample sizes than typical CBC studies. This is the realm of the expert conjoint analysis researcher who has significant depth in design of experiments and econometric modeling. Budget much more time for the analysis phase than the other conjoint methods.
|Relative Conjoint Method Usage
(Sawtooth Software 2014 Customer Survey)
|CBC (Choice-Based Conjoint)
|ACBC (Adaptive Choice-Based Conjoint)
|MBC (Menu-Based Choice)
|CVA (Traditional Ratings-Based Conjoint)
|ACA (Adaptive Conjoint Analysis)
So Which Should I Use?
You should choose a method that adequately reflects how buyers make decisions in the actual marketplace. This includes not only the competitive context, but the way in which products are described (text), displayed (multi-media or physical prototypes), and purchased (single choice or menu). Although ratings-based methods (CVA and ACA) were popular prior to 2000, the vast majority of research conducted today uses choice-based methods. It is difficult to imagine situations today where we would use a ratings-based conjoint method rather than choice-based methods.
Key decision areas and how they affect choice of conjoint method are as follows:
- Number of Attributes. If you need to study many attributes (especially eight or more), ACA historically was considered a solid approach. More recently, ACBC seems more effective—especially for projects involving price as an attribute. Three or fewer attributes would favor CBC.
- Mode of Interviewing. In many cases, survey populations don't have access to computers. If your study must be administered paper‑and‑pencil, first consider using CBC, with CVA also being a option under conditions of very small sample size (see below). Many respondents today elect to take surveys via small devices—even 4-inch display smartphones. Although it would seem that results for complex conjoint surveys would be poor for respondents who use their smartphones to complete them, recent results from two independent research organizations (See the 2013 Sawtooth Software Conference Proceedings: Diener et al. (pp 55-68) and White (pp 69-82). Download from: http://www.sawtoothsoftware.com/downloadPDF.php?file=2013Proceedings.pdf) show that the quality of conjoint surveys completed on the smartphone is just as good as with large monitors (desktops and laptops). We should emphasize, that these tests looked as results for respondents who self-selected to complete the surveys on smartphones (presumably because they were comfortable using their smartphone as a web browser), not those who were assigned to complete the survey on a smartphone. The researchers also implemented best practices for displaying conjoint tasks on the small devices.
- Sample Size. If you are dealing with relatively small sample sizes (especially less than 100), you should be cautious about using CBC, unless respondents are able to answer more than the usual number of choice tasks. ACBC and the older ratings-based approaches (such as ACA and CVA) are able to stabilize estimates using relatively smaller samples than CBC. If interviewing must be done on paper, and very small sample sizes are the norm (such as 30 or fewer), you should consider CVA.
- Interview Time. If you only have a few minutes to use in conjoint questions, CBC is a good alternative, though you may need to compensate for the limited information from each individual by sharply increasing the sample size. With about eight or more minutes available, ACBC is feasible.
- Pricing Research. If studying price, CBC and ACBC are generally preferred.
- Menus. If the product you are studying is purchased via a multi-select menu, then MBC is the appropriate technique (assuming large sample sizes, larger budget for analysis, and the experienced conjoint researcher).
Contact Us
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