text:
November 19, 2006
Advice for Giuliani.
Mary Matalin: "[C]arefully evolve, but don't be a phony. Social conservatives are conviction voters. And social moderates will reject political opportunism. Indicate your respect for conservative convictions and try to 'refine' your own. A late-life reversal on late-term abortion is entirely plausible and mandatory. Try to keep focus on constitutionalist judges."
Paul Begala: "You can't switch on everything. So surrender to the far right on one issue: abortion. But the only way to do it is whole hog. Use your trump card: 9/11. Tell them the death you saw that day gave you a greater appreciation for the sanctity of life. You're Saul on the road to Damascus. Praise the Lord and pass the delegates."
Mark Halperin: "Giuliani would seem to have two choices — try to back off of his previously held liberal positions on social issues, or confront the party by arguing that his conservative record on crime, taxes and national security should be sufficient for a party serious about being a big enough tent to win national elections. Giuliani watchers say they have no doubt that if he runs, he would pursue the latter course."
Rich Galen: "As to Rudy's positions on social issues, I would interview the staff who ran Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's re-election campaign. California Republicans are decidedly conservative. Notwithstanding Arnold's very moderate stance on most social and environmental issues, he got (according to one exit poll) 91 percent of the G.O.P. vote. That tells me Republicans want to win much more than they want to lose on the point of an ideological sword."
I'm very interested in this strategic problem, because I want more social liberals to succeed within the Republican Party -- just as I want more national security hawks to make it in the Democratic Party.
73 comments:
- Randy said...
I'm very interested in this strategic problem, because I want more social liberals to succeed within the Republican Party -- just as I want more national security hawks to make it in the Democratic Party.
Me too! FWIW, I think Begala's suggestion would be political suicide and Matalin death by a 1,000 cuts (or million questions raised). No one will believe him. Halperin probably gives the best advice.
The problem using the Arnold model is that he was elected under extraordinary circumstances that allowed him to bypass a GOP primary he would never have won, and the running for re-election against one of the most inept candidates in modern California political history. (BTW, early reports I read indicated that the GOP turnout in California was below normal. Don't know if that ended up being the case. Turnout in GOP hotbed Orange County, for example, was 10% below the state average.)
- The Drill SGT said...
I was struck by how Paul Begala's hypocritical advice so typified the way Bill Clinton campaigned and governed, with of course Paul Begala's advice.
deadly advice for any GOP candidate IMHO. GOP voters want to win, but they won't accept the blatant pandering and flip flopping for interest groups that KOS types would in the Dim party.
Character, courage, and tested leadership under pressure is Rudi's brand (and McCain's as well). Neither can risk damage to the trademark strengths
- jaed said...
I don't see why this is supposed to be a problem. As far as I can tell, the Republican base loves Rudy, liberal positions or no liberal positions. They see in him a person of inner strength (very important perception), he has national security credibility, they still like what he said to that Saudi price (so do I), and they like the way he cleaned up NYC during his tenure as mayor.
(Also, as a practical matter, who else is there? McCain has a little First Amendment problem with the base. Plus it's irritating that he's become the token conservative politician that the MSM likes.)
The straw polls I've seen have Giuliani riding high among conservatives. Is there any actual data that indicates the Republican base won't vote for him? Or is all this "Rudy has a problem" discussion based on sheer speculation? It sounds like a set of solutions panting after a nonexistent problem to me.
- Zeb Quinn said...
The simple truth is that Guliani stands about the same chance of winning the Republican nomination as Lieberman does winning the Democrat nomination.
- knox said...
I'd like to hear what Dick Morris thinks on this.
Plus it's irritating that he's become the token conservative politician that the MSM likes.
Don't forget, as soon as it looked like he was doing great in the primary for the '00 election, the media turned on him, and all you heard was stories about how he was "unbalanced" because of his POW experience. They'll cut him off at the knees when necessary.
- Randy said...
BTW, John McCain will be 72 in 2008.
- The Drill SGT said...
I'd vote for either over the rest of the field, GOP or Dims
72, three years older than Reagan's 69.
- Cedarford said...
Many of the Republicans - the NH delegation, the Indiana delegation, Simmons & Johnson of CT - had voter approval in the 60s and 70s. Same with Chaffee and Talent(barely - and only up to a year before elections) in the Senate.
It didn't help when the election was about Bush's refusal to listen on Iraq and a range of other issues and change course (which he secretly was doing, but decided to keep secret from the voters). The Republicans lost some of their best. (and Chaffee - who joins the Bush and Kennedy families as living testimony to how genetics trump dynasties)
What Arnold did in his landslide was buck Bush early on and both admit to mistakes and make clear he was California's man, not the Party's or Bush's.
Yes he had a bad opponent, but so did many well-regarded moderate & conservative Republicans packing up their offices with the knives of Bush, corrupt peers, and clueless leaders still stuck in their backs.
Which makes what Arnold did, still extraordinary by all measures. A crushing when national Republicans including some of their best - were crushed. Carrying 91% of Republicans and the moderate and Latin vote. Some of that was surely Schwarzenegger being an extraordinarily smart, larger than life person....but I daresay that Republicans can get big lessons out of his campaign. (and Lamont's)
1. Ideological purity is crap. It matters in Party backrooms and to activists, but not the people. Getting candidates more "pure" than Reagan on his most "pure" day ensures they forget Reagan signed the first law relaxing abortion restrictions and ensured that Republicans in California were hosed and out of power. Arnold never sucked up to the Religious Right yet got solid Republican voter support. Best keep your statue of McClintlock in your home shrine and go with electable people. (And on the other side of the spectrum, the Netroots purists got their comeuppance).
2. When you fuck up, as Arnold did with his referandums, admit it! Voters do not want perfection. They do not want politicans who refuse to admit error, change course when it is obvious policy corrections are needed.
3. They want honesty and willingness to fix things from strong, pragmatic leaders.
4. Republicans under Bush and DeLay started a cult of loyalty - where loyalty prevented both change and speaking out against failing policies and corruption. Arnold rejected that cult. The Republicans packing their Congressional office mementos up did not.
All Hail Ahh-nold!! All cheer his continuing to run Colli-Fornya, a state he still can't pronounce. And every Republican should best concern themselves not with what Dear Leader wants or what "Congressional leadership" wants - but what their voters want.
- Unknown said...
I agree with Halperin--run on what you believe, but it might be convenient for Rudy to believe in originalist judges. There's no way that Rudy or anyone else is going to run on actually doing anything about hot button values issues--FMA, etc. He can personally favor a socially liberal position while deferring to the will of the people.
He might also favor a strong national defense, border security, tax cuts, and fiscal responsibility.
- Joe Giles said...
Late shifts in ideology take a lot of explaining.
He might be better off with "I'm pro-choice and pro-gay marriage but would leave it up to the states."
Then just keep repeating like a mantra, "I can beat her."
- Dave said...
I think Giuliani is great.
Forbes had a big cover article about some of his consulting firms' shady dealings.
I don't know if the article was a smear campaign, or factually accurate, but it at least raises some questions about his post-Mayor record and judgment.
- The partisan moderate said...
We have debated this previously on the blog and although he was an excellent Mayor and would probably make an excellent President, Giuliani can't win.
He has way too much personal baggage and too many prominent enemies to do so.
The African-American community in New York disliked him, including many if not most of its prominent leaders. Former Mayor Koch and Dinkins hate him with the former writing a book about it. His first wife was his cousin, which is a little weird and his second wife wouldn't say if she voted for him. One of his deputy mayors was the Liberal party's son who he appointed in order to get their endorsement. His father was allegedly in the mafia. Bernie Kerik and all his scandals was his former driver and the one he appointed head of the Police Department. While he was quite good, his qualifications probably didn't warrant the job.
More research would probably demonstrate more personal problems. He could win the nomination with his positions if voters were willing to forgo his personal baggage which they would not be willing to do.
- Gerry said...
Unsurprisingly, Begala's advice is dead wrong and is the most sure-fire way for Giuliani to be dead in the water, as internet ronin suggested.
It is almost as if Begala did that on purpose.
If Rudy comes out for justices in the mold of Roberts and Alito, and for parental notification/consent laws, and for the ban on the latest of late term abortions, then that will likely be enough. If he tries to go whole-hog, he'll get rejected by both moderate and conservative GOP voters; the former for not being one of them and the latter for being disingenuous.
In other words, exchange a very liberal position on abortion for a moderate (but on the conservative side of moderate) one, and he should do fine in the primaries.
- Brian Doyle said...
Zeb -
The election is over. There's no need to refer to "the Democrat nomination" anymore other than to sound like the president, which no one really wants to do.
Say it: Democratic. It sounds better and is the actual name of the party.
As for Giuliani, I agree he has no chance. Lieberman has a better shot at the Republican nomination than he does.
- Gerry said...
"The African-American community in New York disliked him, including many if not most of its prominent leaders."
And Lord knows, a Republican cannot win without carrying the African-American vote overwhelmingly.
Especially the New York African-American vote.
- Gerry said...
I love how Democrats seem to think they know how conservatives think and how the GOP works.
Not only does Giuliani have a good shot at the nomination, doyle, I think at this point he is the frontrunner.
- Brian Doyle said...
Okay, Gerry. We'll see.
The mind of the Republican primary voter is one of nature's own mysteries, but I think "frontrunner" is a little strong for the former mayor of Sin City. 9/11 is going to be a little harder to play up in 2008, too.
I hope you're right. He'd get demolished.
- Sloanasaurus said...
Most social conservatives know that it is the judges appointed that really matters in the end.
Giuliani should say 1) I believe that there sould be rights to abortion with many restrictions. However, I do not believe that the federal government should be involved in this and that I will not move to change any of the policies currently held in the federal government over abortion.(GWB said essentially the same thing except he said he was pro life)
2) Giuliani should say he will appoint judges on the same order as ScAlito and Roberts and Thomas.
I think this would satisfy social conservatives. Also, many pro-choice republicans may be pro choice but would still rather have Scalito THomas etc... THey would prefer to let the states decide abortion.
- Unknown said...
"The mind of the Republican primary voter is one of nature's own mysteries." Good one.
I might add that this Svengali-like primary voter has successfully nominated the eventual President of the Unites States of America in seven of the last ten elections.
Numbers like that would put a slugger in the hall of fame, let alone an election handicapper.
- Simon said...
I'm more-or-less aboard the Giulliani Express at this point. And for someone who'd rather be electing Newt Gingrich, that ain't nothing. In an ideal world, would Rudy my first choice? No. Is he who I expected to be backing? No way. Am I worried about just how liberal he is? You bet your ass. But there's a bottom line in 2008, and it's this: 270. And I don't know any electoral math that gets 270 votes for Newt. No candidate who can't explain how they're going to carry or obviate Ohio need apply in 2008, and Rudy can do both - he can win Ohio, and he can win New York.
In essence, there are only three Republicans in the game for the Presidency right now - Rudy, Mitt and John McCain. And I think that people underestimate just how willing the right is to commit Hari Kari before they see McCain in the White House.
In any event, regarding Paul Begala's advice, let's first remind ourselves that Paul Begala is devoutly pro-life social liberal, which means that he isn't an entirely disinterested observer in suggesting which social issues Rudy "surrender" to the "far right" on, and it is no surprise that he picks the one issue on which Begala would happily surrender to the far right. I don't say this to disagree with Begala, but to grab some cover for myself (viz., if Begala can do it, so can I) in suggesting that Rudy put forward the view that I'd like a candidate to take, which is, as explained most recently in comments here, that he regards abortion as a matter for the states, and will appoint judges who take the same view.
- Zeb Quinn said...
Saying "Democrat" avoids the implicit equivocation with "democratic" or "democracy," both of which concepts excludes the Democrats bigtime.
And I always know that I'm dealing with a major league Kool-Aid drinker when they get themselves hung up over me calling them Democrats instead of Democratics.
- Simon said...
Internet Ronin said...
"BTW, John McCain will be 72 in 2008."
So will Antonin Scalia. So what? Of all the arguments advanced against McCain, his age is about the most useless.
I agree with Cedarford, and I also think Giuliani potentially could be a great President.
As others have noted, the deal killer is that he has enough skeletons in various closets that all any enterprising opponent has to do is yank on a nearby door. He's not exactly a spring chicken, either, has had health problems, and is visibly aging. My fear is that Giuliani will simply not be a factor when the '08 primaries roll around. And despite being adored by the media, John McCain is just too old and too devious for much Republican love to ever come his way. And Gingrich? Spare me.
No, I'm afraid that the Republicans will nominate a blow-dried nonentity such as Mitt Romney, perhaps as a "compromise" or "fresh face" candidate. Now Romney is nice in public, a good businessman, a solid family man, has a square jaw and more teeth than Bert Parks (anyone old enough to get that reference?) The problem is that he is too closely identified with the Republican social conservatives. He's a Mormon, which is, IMHO, more deadly for a general election than being a Catholic ever was. As a Massachusetts resident, I know more about him than I want, and, believe me, he's no Ahh-nold. He's been a tolerable Governor, but that's about it. He's the most recent Republican Governor trailing in the long shadow of Bill Weld, and it looks like he will be the last for quite a while.
Realistically, who else other than Sen. Clinton is going to be the Democratic nominee? It would be a great Presidential campaign, with two good choices for once, if it indeed were Clinton vs. Giuliani. Being the eternal pessimist, I'm afraid that it will be Sen. Clinton vs. some dork who appeals only to the Republican base. The hopeful thing is that Sen. Clinton will have to be a better President than her husband.
- The partisan moderate said...
Gerry, I once again find it amusing that you describe me as a Democrat. "I love how Democrats seem to think they know how conservatives think and how the GOP works".
Please read my blog before commenting on my political affiliation.
Furthermore, the problem isn't that Giuliani won't get a large percentage of the African-American vote (which he wouldn't in a general election) but that suburban swing voters will be turned off. Furthermore, the media will focus on his poor race relations at the expense of his political platform.
The gun control issue he can chalk up to states' rights as NYC isn't going to have the same gun policy as Nebraska or at least so the logic goes. He is pro civil union and not gay marriage and while the issue will hurt him in the primary it wouldn't destroy him. More Republicans are coming around to this position and as a previous blogger noted it is judges that matter the most, which he will likely emphasize on abortion as well. Furthermore, Giuliani personally is religious and almost became a priest, which will mitigate some of his more liberal stated positions.
That said, he has too much personal backage to win and he is not going to run for President but he will allow for months of speculation which will help upgrade his political capital and help his business interests.
- Gerry said...
Doyle, saying that the mind of a GOP primary voter is a mystery when your Democrats' primary voters thought it would be a swimmingly good idea to nominate John Kerry is quite humorous.
As for your predictions of him being doomed if nominated, I again point to John Forbes Kerry.
- MD said...
Is Guiliani really that unpopular with social conservatives? I mean, so unpopular that any 'breaks' he might get from the other hyphenated-conservatives can't overcome that? Honestly, sometimes I feel like the rank and file Republican establishment (some of the punditocracy included -NRO types, excluding Podhoretz, I am speaking to you!)) is scared to death of a successful Rudy run. Hmmm, I can see myself voting for Romney over McCain though. McCain just really turns me off as a presidential candidate and I can't really put my finger on it. What is it about him that is such a turn off?
As for who can beat Hillary, wasn't that the mental jujitsu the democratic primary voters played with Kerry? In the end, didn't you feel like it was a campaign of gritted teeth for the democrats: at least he's not Bush, at least he's not Bush, at least he's not Bush. I'd hate to have my choices be Hillary (although a woman president would be cool, just not her) and a gritted teeth maybe-vote for McCain. Ugh.
- Brian Doyle said...
That's funny, I always know I'm dealing with a major league semiliterate when they don't know an adjective from a noun.
Old Dad: So you think Giuliani's the frontrunner, too?
- Simon said...
Doyle's right. They're the Democratic Party. And, unfortunately, as we saw last week (Lott, Blunt), we're still the Stupid Party.
- Gerry said...
I stand corrected. Suburban swing voters are notoriously swayed by the ruminations of Al Sharpton.
- The partisan moderate said...
Your sarcasm aside, suburbanites don't like to be considered racist or be associated with candidates who have bad race relations amongst other things. Quite a number of people didn't vote for Bush based on his lobbying against gay marriage who normally would have.
Giuliani's perception in the African-American community (not just Sharpton) could and would hurt him with the exact voters that currently like him. To what extent I don't know, but it would hurt him.
- Simon said...
"Realistically, who else other than Sen. Clinton is going to be the Democratic nominee?"
Obama or Bayh jump to mind as the most likely other contenders. Don't give up on Romney, BTW. He's not my first choice, but he's a serious contender, particularly if the Dems nominate Hillary.
MD said...
"Is Guiliani really that unpopular with social conservatives?"
Well, with the real hard core, yes, he is - but McCain is even less popular, so I suspect they'll swallow hard and support Rudy, because they want to keep the White House, they want to beat McCain, and they know Rudy can do both.
- Zeb Quinn said...
They ARE NOT the "Democratic Party." They are the "Democrat Party." A Republican is a member of the Republican Party. Period. One doesn't refer to them as "Republicanism Party," does one?
Hence, Democrats are members of the Democrat party. Period.
Don't buy into their little word game scam of trying to make it sound like they are somehow connected to democracy through the magic of invoking that word in their name. Oh, yeah, that's what they want to sell, for sure, but that's nothing but the logical fallacy of equivocation. By design.
Democrats are members of the Democrat Party and Republicans are members of the Republican Party. Get it?
- John Kindley said...
I thought Mary Matalin's advice was the soundest -- keep the focus on constitutionalist judges. He would then not have to back off or reverse his current stance on abortion. It is an entirely principled position to hold that as a matter of public policy or as a legislator you would not vote to criminalize abortion, yet at the same time to recognize that the role of a judge is to interpret faithfully the law (especially the Constition) and not to set public policy, and to nominate such judges. This would more than satisfy social conservatives -- it's basically Scalia's position (though I think it's safe to say that if Scalia was a legislator he would vote to criminalize abortion). It would also be very difficult for rabid social liberals to attack in the general election a candidate espousing this principled position who has a long record of supporting abortion "rights." I don't know if Giuliani has a record of statements on his view of the role of the judiciary and whether a right to abortion is found in the Constitution. It would seem that the political offices he has held thus far would not have called for him to express those views.
If he can do this, it would seem he would be extremely electable.
- Simon said...
What is the basis for saying that their formal name is "The Democrat Party" rather than the "The Democratic Party"? What documentation has the authority to resolve that question, as a formal matter? I mean, it's called the "Democratic National Committee" - can we look at their Tax Return? Who has the authority to say?
Besides - playing desultory word games is pointless. What matters is who they are, not how you refer to them. They could call themselves the "really good care-bear love party," but as long as they have the same platform and the same people, their problems would remain.
- Randy said...
Ok Zeb, they are the Democrat party and the other is Republic party. Works for me, in a way.
Simon, I agree that Obama and perhaps Bayh have a chance, but a slim one as seen through my admittedly cloudy crystal ball. The fact that Romney is "serious contender" against Clinton is exactly the problem. Romney is that dork I mentioned who appeals only to the Republican base.
Having seen Romney in action, my fear is that Sen. Clinton will eat him for lunch. He's not fast on his feet. He gets tied to rigid ideological positions and has a tendency to rationalize and get deeper in whatever hole he has dug for himself.
Speaking of holes, and on the plus side, he did go after the head of the Mass Turnpike Authority Board, but it took a ceiling collapse in a Big Dig tunnel to give him the leverage he needed. I'm afraid this may be of too much local interest to effectively use on a national stage, although he could spin it as an example of anti-waste, fraud, and abuse actions he has taken as Governor. The trouble is, like so many things in Massachusetts politics, it's too complex, tangled, and ambiguous to be a clear example of Good Governor Mitt.
- Mortimer Brezny said...
The African-American community in New York disliked him, including many if not most of its prominent leaders.
This is not accurate. Many African-Americans disliked him for very specific reasons:
1. He ousted the city's first black mayor in a very close election (51%-49%) by appealing to Long and Staten Islanders (i.e., the richest areas in NYC);
2. He took credit for some of the previous mayor's crime and punishment efforts;
3. He had a combative style and would always side with cops, even before the evidence was out on police brutality cases. Add to that he badmouthed community policing efforts (hire cops from community in which they serve -- it reduces crime and the instances of cops shooting residents) and civilian review boards (which oversee police brutality complaints).
Reasons 1 and 2 more or less evaporated the longer Rudy was in offce (as he really did improve the quality of life in the city, and Dinkins truly was a mediocre mayor). Certainly after 9/11. I did not hear any black people in NYC badmouthing Guiliani's immediate and heroic response to the crisis.
Reason 3 evaporated before 9/11 when Guiliani softened his image and his approach. This was even before he decided to run for Senator and then dropped out due to prostate cancer. Instead of irking people over police brutality, he began to irk people over freedom of expression by trying to dictate what art pieces museums could exhibit.
As for the "prominent black leaders" part, "prominent black leaders" do not lead anyone or represent anyone. They are media-creations who use their media clout to extort money from the government. And most black people view them that way.
- Simon said...
John Kindley said...
"It is an entirely principled position to hold that as a matter of public policy or as a legislator you would not vote to criminalize abortion, yet at the same time to recognize that the role of a judge is to interpret faithfully the law (especially the Constition) and not to set public policy, and to nominate such judges."
That's precisely right. The "big lie" (and I'm sorry to say that my side contributes to it almost as much as does the other) is that one's position on abortion should have anything to do with one's position on what the Constitution says.
"This would more than satisfy social conservatives -- it's basically Scalia's position (though I think it's safe to say that if Scalia was a legislator he would vote to criminalize abortion)."
If he were a state legislator, yes, I'm sure he would do so without hesitation. His position is that the Constitution says nothing about abortion, which means the matter is almost entirely within the domain of the states. Scalia's view on abortion and the Courts:
"[M]y difficulty with Roe v. Wade is a legal rather than a moral one. I do not believe – and no one believed for 200 years – that the Constitution contains a right to abortion. And if a state were to permit abortion on demand, I would and could in good conscience vote against an attempt to invalidate that law, for the same reason that I vote against invalidation of laws that contradict Roe v. Wade; namely, simply because the Constitution gives the federal government and, hence, me no power over the matter."
(That's one of those cold, legal, arguments that Ann so prefers to the emotional arguments over abortion, right?). Moreover:
"do not think that the anti-abortion people are not willing to use The Constitution the same way. I mean, I've spoken to people who say that The Constitution not only does not require the States to permit abortion, it requires the States to prohibit abortion.
And I read my Constitution, my Bill of Rights, I can't find anything in there about it. It says nothing about it[,] ... [b]ut the anti-abortions say, well nor shall any State deprive any person of life, liberty or property without due process of law. And the fetus is a person and therefore it's covered. The only thing is the very next sentence; you see, I'm a lawyer so I do read the next sentence. I mean, talking about a text here. The next sentence of the Fourteenth Amendment says representatives shall be apportioned among the several States according to their respective numbers counting the whole number of persons in each State. You think they were counting fetuses? I don't think so."
A President's view on abortion shouldn't make any difference. That's why I can live with a Rudy candidacy: as long as he shares Scalia's view (and mine) of who gets to decide, and will act accordingly in appointments to the bench, I'll suck it up and support him enthusiastically.
- Simon said...
Re Bayh, if the Democrats aren't looking seriously at him, they're being idiots. He was a (not entirely unsuccessfull) governor in my state, which is hardly the most liberal place on Earth, he's got plenty of foreign policy experience in the Senate. He could carry Indiana, and if he can carry Ohio as well, that's the election for the Dems.
- The partisan moderate said...
Mortimer Brezny,
(1 "This is not accurate. Many African-Americans disliked him for very specific reasons." It was accurate and you misinterpreted what I did say and didn't say. I stated that many African-Americans didn't like him. I never stated why. So your statement is inaccurate.
(2) You state, "he ousted the city's first black mayor in a very close election (51%-49%) by appealing to Long and Staten Islanders (i.e., the richest areas in NYC);" Obviously, you are not very familiar with New York. Staten Island is a blue-collar area for the most part that Giuliani did very well in but it is not one the richest areas in NYC. He didn't do particularly well the first time he ran in wealthy areas like the Upper West and Park Slope. While some of the wealthy and upper-middle class supported Giuliani initially, it actually took awhile for them to warm up to him, in part because of previous role as US Attorney. His main base of support initially was cops and firemen.
(3) Prominent black leaders hold some sway (how much is a matter of dispute) but as you yourself note the media picks up on it and that is the problem. As we saw with Senator Allen, media perception can matter quite a bit.
- garage mahal said...
Advice for Giuliani.
Flip flop like McCain, and then call yourself a Maverick. The media will lap it all up. I'm sure they'll be talking about an international incident with Kerry's teeth, or hairdo anyways.
- Gerry said...
"suburbanites don't like to be considered racist "
No one does.
That said, suburbanites tend to be repelled by Al Sharpton, not attracted to the arguments he makes. Even when he is calling every Republican under the sun a bigot, which he does pretty much all the time. Ditto Jesse Jackson.
I'll bet you a lot of money that the GOP uses Sharpton to help drive turnout their way in the very suburban areas you think he could poison for Giuliani.
- Unknown said...
As for front runners in '08, that won't be even remotely predictable for a long while, but recent history suggests that he'll have an R after his name.
I'll not challenge your authority on semiliteracy, but given your obvious familiarity with the distinction between nouns and adjectives, you might try to explain the following to a semiliterate. There is a Republic of France but no Democratic of anywhere. Republicans are often elected President, and there are many Republican Senators, but Democratics are never elected to anything. Thomas Jefferson was a Democratic Republican.
English is quirky.
- Cedarford said...
Giuliani has some real "no-gos" in his way, even though he has been a standout fundraiser.
1. The skeletons! The skeletons! The skeletons! Rudy has so many it is called the Giuliani ossuary.
2. Guy is pretty brittle and has a nasty temper like McCain.
3. Is an ardent gun-banner.
4. The guy's old with medical issues. McCain is also old - 72. The Republicans need more than a one-term President - recognizing Reagan is the exception, not the rule...and signs were pretty obvious his age was catching up to him in 1984, beyond obvious by 1986. Better a younger candidate like Romney.
5. The 9/11 cache` is wearing off with time. It's been 5 years. The cache` Bush had as a post 9/11 leader has completely worn off. It will be 7 years in the past if Giuliani runs.
Simon - Internet Ronin said...
"BTW, John McCain will be 72 in 2008."
So will Antonin Scalia. So what? Of all the arguments advanced against McCain, his age is about the most useless
The difference is Scalia was appointed 20 years ago. If he was a 72-year old possible nominee, he would not have even been considered by either Party.
I do agree with you on Bayh, who would be a great candidate to run on the off-chance voters come to really dislike Hillary and reject her as possible Presidential choice, but if she gets the nomination, Bayh from running and showing his stuff in some of HIllary's weak areas (being human, foreign policy, agriculture and land use issues in Red States) would make a superb VP choice by Hillary.
Another candidate tossed around is Rice. Some conservatives believe she is just the most awesome answer. She will get the black vote, is smart, and proved herself creating Bush's foreign policy decisions...oooops, that was true back in 2003. Now we are learning that many of the blunders of Bush originated with her, or that Rumsfeld regularly beat her in arguments. Speaking of skeletons, she is almost in Rudi territory.
I count us lucky that Arnold is not native-born. I like him and think he is great - but the fucking guy's ego, brains, and talent might not just make him run for Prez, but somehow win..then he would be off to become Global Leader.
- Simon said...
"Republicans need more than a one-term President - recognizing Reagan is the exception, not the rule ... Better a younger candidate like Romney."
That's fair, but Romney has plenty of problems of his own. That's the real challenge for Republicans in 2008: every single possible contender has an asterisk after their name, a "but..." argument. Pence? "But he's too young, too conservative." Romney? "But he's a mormon." Rudy? "But he's too liberal to get the nomination." McCain? "But conservatives hate him and he's wobbly on key issues." Santorum, Allen, Frist? "But they're total losers." Newt? "But no-one's forgotten the 1990s." Pawlenty / Huckabee / [insert governor of choice]? "But not enough foreign policy experience." So their aren't any perfect candidates on our side. Every candidate in the game has flaws. The question is which has the least flaws, and who can count to 270. A one-term President is better than a no term President.
"The difference is Scalia was appointed 20 years ago. If he was a 72-year old possible nominee, he would not have even been considered by either Party."
I just don't buy that. I just don't think that, in this day and age, 72 is too old for a Presidential contender.
"Bayh from running and showing his stuff in some of HIllary's weak areas (being human, foreign policy, agriculture and land use issues in Red States) would make a superb VP choice by Hillary."
Right - my bet is that whoever's at the top of the ticket for the Dems, it's going to be Bayh or Warner for Veep.
Cedarford: Great comments! If I were politely complimentary I'd say LOL, but the truth is that put me more in LMAO territory.
- Simon said...
BTW, I also agree with your point about Rice - any nominee closely associated with the Bush Administration is likely to get mauled in 2008, including Rice. At an absolute minimum, candidates will have to repeat the mantra that they supported the war, but they believe that the implementation was seriously messed up. The conventional wisdom is that this helps McCain, who has been arguing for more troops for some time.
That's too bad about Rice, but it's true. She's done for in politics. A nice academic bower awaits her.
As I said about Romney, not only is he a Mormon, but the real problem is that Hillary Clinton will eat him for lunch. If he's the nominee, it's going to be painful. I plan to avert my eyes.
- Unknown said...
Advice for Giulani: do not listen to the advice of all these pros who are telling you how to lie to and trick the electorate. That's how the GOP lost this time.
- Randy said...
Pat: Good advice!
Here are a couple of Republican governors who have prior experience in Washington, D.C.:
Bob Riley of Alabama. Served as vice-chairman of the U.S. House Armed Services Subcommittee on Military Readiness. A rather handy thing to have on his resume.
Mark Sanford of South Carolina. Served on the House Government Reform Committee, the International Relations Committee, and the Joint Economic Committee. (Also refused to accept PAC money while in the House.)
Stranger things have happened!
- Simon said...
Mark Sanford is also Class of '94, and bailed out of the House before the DeLay-era rot really set it. I'm not hostile to him getting into the race, but you know my mantra - show me 270. ;)
- dick said...
Mortimer Brezney,
Why bring Long Island into the issue of who voted for Giuliani. Long island is not even a part of NYC and they can't vote for the mayor. As the other guy stated, Staten Island is almost completely a blue collar borough and has almost always been republican. The wealthy parts of NYC are the Upper East Side, Upper West Side, Greenwich Village, Brooklyn Heights, Park Slope, Forest Hills and Forest Hills Gardens in Queens, a couple of other Queens neighborhoods, Riverdale in The Bronx along with Pelham Park. These areas are almost always democratic in their voting.
What Giuliani did was run a campaign against a mayor who coined the word incompetent and then prove that he could do exactly what he said he would. The city is still basking what Giuliani accomplished. At the time almost all the media called him Hitler, fascist, demagogue, etc, but he went ahead and did what he felt was best for the city to fix the problems. He was right and after 9/11 they finally admitted it. Of course Sharpton and company are still trying to damage him as are the supporters of Hillary but what he did to clean up the city and make it work will trump that. I can still remember working in midtown Manhattan before Giuliani and you had to scurry through the people selling drugs on 42nd Street and the teenage hookers and addicts all around Times Square. After the theatres emptied, Times Square was deserted in those days. Now you go there at 2 or 3 o'clock in the morning and it is still crowded with people enjoying themselves and it is all because of Rudy and his policies. That is what people here remember and that is why Bloomberg won re-election.
- Randy said...
Somehow, I doubt that any of the possible candidates mentioned here are capable of delivering (or would be allowed by their "handlers" to deliver) a message similar to that delivered 143 years ago today:
Four score and seven years ago our fathers brought forth on this continent, a new nation, conceived in Liberty, and dedicated to the proposition that all men are created equal.
Now we are engaged in a great civil war, testing whether that nation, or any nation so conceived and so dedicated, can long endure. We are met on a great battle-field of that war. We have come to dedicate a portion of that field, as a final resting place for those who here gave their lives that that nation might live. It is altogether fitting and proper that we should do this.
But, in a larger sense, we can not dedicate -- we can not consecrate -- we can not hallow -- this ground. The brave men, living and dead, who struggled here, have consecrated it, far above our poor power to add or detract. The world will little note, nor long remember what we say here, but it can never forget what they did here. It is for us the living, rather, to be dedicated here to the unfinished work which they who fought here have thus far so nobly advanced. It is rather for us to be here dedicated to the great task remaining before us -- that from these honored dead we take increased devotion to that cause for which they gave the last full measure of devotion -- that we here highly resolve that these dead shall not have died in vain -- that this nation, under God, shall have a new birth of freedom -- and that government of the people, by the people, for the people, shall not perish from the earth.
- knox said...
I do like Giuliani just for being a hardass in his cleanup of NYC despite all the people who called him "Fascist" and the like for doing so. (My aunt&uncle live in NYC and they *hated* Giuliani, as did all their friends.)
- The Drill SGT said...
These 2 this week are pretty good
- Sloanasaurus said...
Someone here mentioned that Obama could be the dem nominee.
Is it me or am I wrong in thinking that a person with the name "Barack Hussein Obama, jr" will never be elected president.
Imagine Thomas Dewey Tojo Hipler... lets get real here.
- Unknown said...
Sloan, you're too funny!
- ignacio said...
McCain's age in numbers may not be an issue per se -- but he has been looking and sounding very tired and old.
Guiliani's ability to speak well, whether extemporaneously or not, is what separates him from the others.
My guess is that Americans are weary of being spoken to by politicians making use of the cadences and vocabulary of professional politicians. Anyone who can sound like a human being may have a big advantage in this case.
- Randy said...
Thanks Drill SGT. Yes, they are good. I'd already read one but not the other. Believe it or not, it never occurred to me to go to his website for either, though!
- Randy said...
My guess is that Americans are weary of being spoken to by politicians making use of the cadences and vocabulary of professional politicians. Anyone who can sound like a human being may have a big advantage in this case.
I hope so, Ignacio. I really hope so.
- The Drill SGT said...
The GOPAC speach is likely the one you hadn't read. There is a laundry list of topics that goes on a bit too long. Each area is ok as it is, but there are just too many to be crisp, but having said that, the last 7 paragraphs make it worth it.
I don't think there is anyone on either side of the aisle does a better job today in talking about what we face in Iraq.
clear and crisp.
- Randy said...
Yes. Two lines in particular struck me. I emailed them, along with a link to the speech, to my brother:
The situation in Iraq is dire. But I believe victory is still attainable. And I am certain that our defeat there would be a catastrophe, and not only for the United States. But we will not succeed if we no longer have the will to win.
[That is the real question, isn't it: Do we have the will?]
What I cannot do is ask him to return to Iraq, to risk life and limb, so that we might delay our defeat for a few months or a year. That is more to ask than patriotism requires. It would not be in the interest of the country, and it surely would be an intolerable sacrifice for so poor an accomplishment. It would be immoral, and I could not do it.
[He's right, of course: it would be immoral. Which brings us back to the real question, doesn't it.]
- The Drill SGT said...
- This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
- The Drill SGT said...
Unfortunately, I don't think we have the will to win.
we're going to pull out
the bad guys are going to be emboldened.
We're going to fight the GWOT in court rooms, until
we have a WMD attack in the US and then it will get ugly.
I just hope it's on a weekend when my wife is out of central DC. We're not downwind of any likely target.
That does make me think of a humorous anecdote to break up the melancholy
In the early 90's the top General of the Soviet Army was visiting his counterpart, General Powell for the first time at the Pentagon. This is after the wall came down but before the USSR broke up.
Powell was leading the Soviet delegation across the open space in the center of the Pentagon to a meeting on the other side. In case you didn't know, there is a snack bar in the center of the green open space and its nickname is "Ground Zero"
Powell turned the the Soviet General and says, "General, we call this place Ground Zero".
The interpreter translates, and the General smiles and says, "yes, we do also".
- Randy said...
Yep. I think you are right, right down the line. Great story, thanks.
- MDIJim said...
Dick is right about Rudi's impact on NYC. I was a frequent visitor during the 1980s and 1990s, as well as a subscriber to the NYT. Giuliani was totally outside the box and savagely vilified by the media; but he transformed the city. Before Rudi was elected the CW was that NYC's decline is inevitable and the issue was how to manage that decline without too much bloodshed. He understood that public safety was the first requirement of good government. Is that not why we are failing in Iraq? Rudi agreed with liberals about tackling the "root causes" of crime and ordered cops to be agressive against "yoots' who commit even misdemeanors. The results were extraordinary and all pre-9/11. Small business blossomed all over the city, despite crushing taxes and regulations. Immigrants flocked in for a chance to raise their families in peace. Maybe if Rudi could find a way to encapsulate this transformation into a 30-second spot he might have a chance. Our problem now is that the world, including much of the US and even much of Manhattan, feels secure enough to think that 9/11 and the London and Madrid and Bali bombings were one-offs. Before Giluliani that is how New Yorkers though about crime: give the mugger a few dollars and he'll go away; avoid that neighborhood; better yet, avoid the streets and schools altogether. Too bad though about the poor schmucks who have to live there.
- hdhouse said...
of course you are forgetting that 6 billion dollar deficit that rudy pushed off to mayor bloomberg...did you forget that?
did you forget that aside from 9-11, rudy's popularity in the city after these great years of success was in the 40s?
did you forget his mistress and flaunting his affair to the detriment of his child?
do you remember that his social programs morphed into the 3 visit plan....do you fools know what that is???...nyc's foodstamp administration made it a rule for the prospective food stamp recipient to have to show up 3 straight times to appointments...very nice for a mother of 2 living on the edge..3 trips that would take hours each and if you missed an appointment, you started over...he then bragged that he got so many people off food stamps but he didn't tell you that he did it by making it costly and nearly impossible to get them.
he will loose ny in a ny heartbeat and rightly so. and i'm not even up to Kerick as his business partner.
I second what cocaygne says. I, too used to go down to New York from Boston a fair bit during the same time, and had the same experience. I remember two friends who both lived in Soho separately enthusing about how much Mayor Giuliani had improved things. I was completely surprised, as they both were of fairly conventional leftish Manhattan political views. This demonstrated that Mayor Giuliani could appeal across the political spectrum, and I was hopeful he would run for higher office. Unfortunately, his own demons and some bad luck helped create those skeletons Cedarford and others mentioned above.
I must say that what was done in New York compares favorably with the decline of public order in San Francisco during the same time. I go to the Bay Area once or twice a year for family visits, and the contrast between the changes in the two cities was quite noticeable. I'm not sure how things are in San Francisco now, as I just don't go there any more, not wanting to subject my kids to the filthy, aggressive and sometimes dangerous street people.
And BTW, I completely agree with what Internet Ronin says above about Drill Sgt's comment above.
- Kirk Parker said...
ROFL! "He was a (not entirely unsuccessfull) governor in my state." With a recommendation like that, why look any further? I can hear the campaign spots now...
- Simon said...
Kirk Parker said...
"ROFL! 'He was a (not entirely unsuccessful) governor in my state.' With a recommendation like that, why look any further? I can hear the campaign spots now..."
Well, he's a Democrat, you know. I'm not going to give him too much praise, now, am I? A lot of whether you think a Governor is successful or not depends on whether you agree with what they're trying to do. ;)
- John Stodder said...
What if Rudy declared that his position on abortion is irrelevant?
To refuse to elect someone who is otherwise a true conservative, one might argue, is a disqualification with no practical effect. Think of the most conservative possible candidate for president winning. That candidate will have no greater effect on abortion law than Rudy would.
Likewise, gay marriage. Yes, the movement is winning a few victories in the state courts, but voters are generally shooting them down. The proposition is going nowhere federally. The vote for Defense of Marriage was overwhelming and included most liberals. Liberals who have to face voters do not have the courage of their convictions on this matter.
Rudy should therefore say: Abortion and gay marriage are off the table. I will certainly do nothing as president to make abortion or gay marriage easier. None of my opponents can credibly claim they will be able to make abortion or gay marriage more difficult. On judges--I don't believe in litmus tests, but the kinds of judges I would appoint are the same kinds of judges George W. Bush has appointed -- conservatives.
That's the key for social conservatives. None of my judges would find "rights" to gay marriage where none exist in the constitution.
- Revenant said...
I think Rudy can convincingly punt on the issues of gay marriage and abortion by saying they should be left to the states. That would allow him to be anti-Roe and pro-choice at the same time.
- Simon said...
I don't think it's "punt[ing]" to be "anti-Roe and pro-choice at the same time." That seems to be a perfectly reasonable and logical position. Indeed, it would seem to be the default position for anyone who understands that the real question represented by Roe has nothing whatsoever to do with abortion.


text:
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subset: commoncrawl


text:
Crop diseases
Plant diseases are a significant yield and quality constraint for growers of broadacre crops in Western Australia.
Plant pathogens can be fungal, bacterial, viral or nematodes and can damage plant parts above or below the ground. Identifying symptoms and knowing when and how to effectively control diseases is an ongoing challenge for WA growers of cereals (wheat, barley, oats and triticale), pulses (field pea, chickpea, faba bean), canola and lupin crops.
The Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development has a strong research, development and extension focus to assist industry to reduce the impact of crop diseases on all broadacre crops.
Results of extensive field/lab/glass house research and surveys across the WA grainbelt every year contribute to disease management packages and forecasting tools, and identify new incursions of crop pathogens or strains into WA.
The department also gathers and extends industry disease reports (PestFax), provides a disease diagnosis service and a broad range of management information for specific foliar and root diseases and viruses.
See Also
- Crop diseases: forecasts and management
- GRDC Research Updates 2017: Choosing the best yielding wheat and barley variety under high crown rot
- GRDC Research Updates 2017: UAV monitoring of rhizoctonia bare patch
- Research Updates 2017: Fungicides at seeding for management of cereal foliar diseases including spot type net blotch and wheat powdery mildew
- GRDC Research Updates 2017: Sclerotinia in canola - ground infections, effect of row spacing, plant density and fungicide. Is it worth spraying after you see the disease?
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text:
Page One
Sept. 11 Response Calendar
Thursday, Nov. 1
• 7 p.m.
The first Bay Area Appearance of members of the Revolutionary Association of the Women of Afghanistan
Mills College
Campus Chapel
5000 Mac Arthur Blvd.
Sunday, Nov. 4
• 1 p.m.
Islam in the balance
Toward a Better Understanding of Islam and Its Followers
Bill Graham Auditorium
99 Grove St. at Larkin, San Francisco
A one-day symposium that includes: Imam Hamza Yusuf Hanson, Rev. Cecil Williams, Hatem Bazian
The event will include a performance by Hamza El Din.
$5-10 – no one will be turned away for lack of funds.
466-5205 www.islaminthebalance.org
Tuesday, Nov. 6
• 7 p.m.
Dr. Hamid Mavani speaks on "Islam and Its Background" at a free lecture and discussion presented by the Berkeley Public Library. Dr. Mavani is the Religious Director of the Islamic Cultural Center of Northern California, based in Oakland.
The session is the first of a series of three events designed to inform the community about critical world issues.
South Branch of the Berkeley Public Library
1901 Russell St.
Friday, Nov. 9
• noon
2315 Durant Ave.
Ameena Janadali, co-founder of the Islamic Networks Group, will speak on "Women of Islam, at the Berkeley City Club.
Luncheon, $11-$12.25; speaker only, 12:30 p.m., $1
Saturday, Nov. 10
• Community Conversation: Confronting racism, finding common ground
Rosa Parks School
9:30- 3 p.m.
920 Allston Way
The event is sponsored by the local chapter of the League of Women Voters who say: "In the wake of the Sept. 11 tragedies, some of our fellow residents who may look Middle Eastern or Muslim have feared and some have experienced racist remarks or actions. This has strengthened our conviction that Berkeley, Albany and Emeryville need to confront all the different kinds of racism within our communities."
Sunday, Nov. 11
• Understanding Islam
First Unitarian Church
14th and Castro Streets, Oakland
2:30 - 5 p.m.
The events of Sept. 11 and thereafter have added an element of urgency to the need for a concise educational program about Islam. The program will address whether religion itself is part of the cause of the current turmoil or whether, instead, religion is being invoked rhetorically as mythic clothing.
Co-sponsored by the Oakland Coalition of Congregations and the People's Nonviolent Response Coalition.
Pre-registration is required: 433-9667
• Lake Merritt Neighbors Organized for Peace (LMNOP) invites the public on weekly peace walks around Lake Merritt in Oakland every Sunday at 3 p.m.
Meet at the columns at the east end of the lake, between Grand and Lakeshore avenues. Near Grand Avenue exit off 580 freeway. Most well-known nearby landmark: Grand Lake Theater.
Tuesday, Nov. 13
7 p.m.
Dr. Wali Ahmadi, associate professor in UC Berkeley's near Eastern Studies Department, presents "The History of Afghanistan."
South Branch of the Berkeley Public Library
1901 Russell St.
Tuesday, Nov. 20
7 p.m.
Ann Fagan Ginger, executive director of the Meiklejohn Civil Liberties Institute will speak on "Civil Liberties and Conflict Resolution."
South Branch of the Berkeley Public Library
1901 Russell St.


text:
Stevens Alumnus Experiences Wall Street from a World Away
Suresh Gopal had to travel halfway across the world to the fast-paced Wall Street experience he'd always dreamed of, but he finally got it.
Gopal, a native of India with a software engineering background, completed his master's degree in financial engineering at Stevens in December 2013.
His education and connections from the university helped him snag an exciting internship at Spartan Capital Securities, working on the trading floor with brokers and traders as he conducted research on high growth stocks and learned first-hand how markets run and the financial industry works.
"It was a dream to any financial engineering student," Gopal said. "It's a completely different world compared to my past experience as a software engineer. Everything had a tight deadline and everything had to be lightning fast in the beginning."
Finance always fascinated Gopal, especially after the 2008 financial crisis and recession when terms like investment banking, risk management and market crashes became part of the regular lingo.
"For an undergraduate engineering student in electronics and communication, it was like Greek or Latin," said Gopal. "I started exploring these new terms and found them to be interesting. The world of finance seemed to be a challenging environment and it is in this sector I wanted to carve out my career."
So Gopal stepped away from his job as an assistant systems engineer in India and flew to the U.S. and enrolled in Stevens' one-of-a-kind Financial Engineering master's program, where he knew he would receive the high-quality, relevant and cutting-edge instruction needed to succeed in such an ever-changing field.
"Stevens is one of the very few universities which offers a quality Financial Engineering program, plus it has the state-of-the-art Hanlon Financial Lab and some of the best financial engineering professors," Gopal said. "And proximity to New York City, one of the biggest hubs for finance, was a great plus."
Although he had no previous foundation in finance, Gopal had no trouble finding his footing, thanks to the enthusiastic and personal attention from his highly-experienced professors as well as the welcome of the Stevens international graduate student community, who even celebrated traditional Indian holidays together.
"It seemed like a home away from home," Gopal said.
He also enjoyed his courses housed in the Hanlon Lab.
"We had access to Bloomberg terminals and any financial data was available at my fingertips," Gopal said. "It's equipped with the latest hardware and software technologies."
"The Financial Engineering Seminar Series is also a great boon for financial engineering students, helping us to understand current industry trends and research," he added.
Gopal has lofty career goals. He hopes to design structured financial products by incorporating cutting edge methodologies and sophisticated tools to cater to the current and future needs of investment banking domain.
"I want to be part of the movement toward a secure financial recovery resulting in a mature global economy," he said.
Fresh out of graduate school, he feels he is well on his way.
"I can proudly say deciding to pursue my master's degree at Stevens to carve out my finance career was one of my best," Gopal said. "Stevens helped me to build a good foundation in finance and it has one of the best teaching facilities and faculties for financial engineering. I personally felt my tenure as a student here was one of the best phases of my life."


text:
WASHINGTON, Oct. 1 — Deep political ties between top White House aides and Attorney General John Ashcroft have put him into a delicate position as the Justice Department begins a full investigation into whether administration officials illegally disclosed the name of an undercover C.I.A. officer.
Karl Rove, President Bush's top political adviser, whose possible role in the case has raised questions, was a paid consultant to three of Mr. Ashcroft's campaigns in Missouri, twice for governor and for United States senator, in the 1980's and 1990's, an associate of Mr. Rove said on Wednesday.
Jack Oliver, the deputy finance chairman of Mr. Bush's 2004 re-election campaign, was the director of Mr. Ashcroft's 1994 Senate campaign, and later worked as Mr. Ashcroft's deputy chief of staff.
Those connections led Democrats on Wednesday to assert that Mr. Rove's connections to Mr. Ashcroft amounted to a clear conflict of interest and undermined the integrity of the investigation. The disclosures have also emboldened Democrats who have called for the appointment of an outside counsel.
On Wednesday the administration worked to ensure that no Republicans in Congress broke ranks and called for an independent inquiry, and it sought to portray the former diplomat at the center of the case as a partisan Democrat.
Mr. Ashcroft's predicament over whether to bring in a special counsel is reminiscent of the exchanges between President Bill Clinton and his attorney general, Janet Reno. Ms. Reno's appointments of numerous independent counsels to investigate ethics accusations against the Clinton administration fueled tensions between her and the president, and by the end of his second term, associates said, the two were said to be barely on speaking terms.
In contrast, the president has voiced strong public support for Mr. Ashcroft in recent months, the two meet almost daily, and the ties between their political aides go back a decade or more.
At the very least, the relationships have given new grist to the Democrats. "This is not like, `Oh, yeah, they're both Republicans, they've been in the same room together,' " said Roy Temple, the former executive director of the Missouri Democratic Party and the former deputy chief of staff to Gov. Mel Carnahan of Missouri. "Karl Rove was once part of John Ashcroft's political strategic team. You have both the actual conflict, and the appearance of conflict. It doesn't matter what's in the deep, dark recesses of their hearts. It stinks."
Representative Nancy Pelosi of California, the House Democratic leader, said she was particularly concerned about the past campaign work that Mr. Rove did for Mr. Ashcroft. "Given allegations about the involvement of senior White House officials and the past close association between the attorney general and those officials, the investigation should be headed by a person independent of the administration," Ms. Pelosi said.
On Wednesday, Justice Department officials would not rule out the possibility of Mr. Ashcroft's appointing a special counsel, or recusing himself from the inquiry.
"We're leaving all legal options open," said Mark Corallo, a department spokesman.
And the associate of Mr. Rove said of the attorney general, "He's going to have to recuse himself, don't you think?"
Mr. Bush himself salvaged Mr. Ashcroft's political career by selecting him as attorney general after Mr. Ashcroft lost his Senate race in 2000 to Mr. Carnahan, who was killed in a plane crash just before the election.
In 2001, Mr. Ashcroft recused himself from an investigation into accusations against Senator Robert G. Torricelli of New Jersey because Mr. Torricelli had campaigned against him in Missouri. Mr. Torricelli withdrew from his re-election race.
Mr. Bush and Mr. Ashcroft say that the Justice Department will be fair and thorough, and Justice officials say that the investigation will be handled independently by attorneys in the criminal division's counterespionage section. "Career professionals with decades of experience in these kinds of cases are fully capable of conducting a thorough and complete investigation," said a senior Justice Department official.
On Monday, the White House dismissed as "ridiculous" the suggestion that Mr. Rove had illegally disclosed the identity of the Central Intelligence Agency officer to journalists to intimidate the officer's husband, Joseph C. Wilson IV, a former diplomat who has been critical of the administration's use of intelligence to justify the war in Iraq. Mr. Wilson initially charged that Mr. Rove was behind the leak, but he has since backtracked, saying that he only suspects Mr. Rove is the source.
Justice Department officials said that it was too early to say which administration officials would be subjects of their investigation, but they are likely to seek information from many senior advisers at the White House, including Mr. Rove.
An associate said Mr. Rove had been hired by Mr. Ashcroft in 1984, in Mr. Ashcroft's first successful race for governor of Missouri, to handle the campaign's mail solicitations for political contributions. The associate said Mr. Rove also handled Mr. Ashcroft's direct-mail solicitations for his 1988 re-election campaign and his 1994 Senate campaign, both of them successful.
By 1998, Mr. Rove had sold his direct-mail operation, Karl Rove and Company of Austin, Tex., at the request of Mr. Bush, who was considering a run for president and wanted his political aide unencumbered. In 2000, Mr. Rove worked for Mr. Bush and played no official role in Mr. Ashcroft's losing Senate race.
On Wednesday, Mr. Rove referred calls about his work for Mr. Ashcroft to Claire Buchan, a White House spokeswoman. Ms. Buchan said Mr. Rove recalled handling direct mail solicitations for two of Mr. Ashcroft's campaigns, not three.
"That was his recollection," Ms. Buchan said. "He wasn't sure on the dates. He said yes on '94 and maybe another race as well."
Even some Republicans, while united in their belief that there is no need for an outside counsel, say Mr. Ashcroft will be hit hard by his political detractors if the investigation drags on.
"All of these so-called scandals can snowball and every new crumb of information turns into a front-page story above the fold," a Senate Republican aide said. "The Democrats are going to make of this what they will, but the reality is you could have the pope do the investigation and they'd still be screaming bias."
The furor over the case finds Republicans and Democrats reversing their roles from the final years of the Clinton administration. Then, Attorney General Reno was dogged by calls from Republicans to appoint an outside counsel to investigate accusations of campaign finance abuses by Mr. Clinton and Vice President Al Gore.


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Avril Lavigne and rocker Deryck Whibley have finalized their divorce — and the division of their guitars.
Court records show a judge approved terms of the breakup on Tuesday in Los Angeles. The agreement calls for each performer to keep the rights to their song catalogues, awards and guitars.
VIEW THE PHOTOS: Divorce! Break-Ups! Hollywood's Most Famous Former Couples
U.S. & World
Neither side is entitled to spousal support.
Lavigne, a punk-pop singer who burst to fame with her 2002 album "Let's Go," filed for divorce in October 2009. She cited irreconcilable differences for her split from Whibley, a guitarist and vocalist with the band Sum 41.
VIEW THE PHOTOS: Avril Lavigne & Deryck Whibley
The former couple married in July 2006 and have no children together.
The court judgment was first reported by celebrity website TMZ.
Copyright 2010 by Associated Press. All rights reserved.This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
VIEW THE PHOTOS: Top 10 Most Expensive Celebrity Divorces
Related Content from AccessHollywood.com:
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PLAY IT NOW: Avril Lavigne Goes Acoustic
PLAY IT NOW: Eva Longoria & Tony Parker Split: What Happened?
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Proceedings of a conference on parliamentary involvement with military missions organised by the Montesquieu Institute Maastricht.
Op werkdagen voor 21.00 uur besteld volgende dag in huis
On the 23rd of October 2009 the Montesquieu Institute Maastricht hosted a conference on parliamentary involvement with military missions. Even where it does not concern the actual waging of war, sending troops on military missions abroad is never undertaken lightly. No matter how many safeguards are put in place, it remains a decision that potentially risks the lives of men and women in the armed forces.
When lives are so directly influenced by political decision making, the question arises what should be the role of the prime representatives of the people: (members of) parliaments. On the one hand parliamentary involvement seems a logical consequence of the gravity of this kind of decision. On the other hand, the decision making process should not be unnecessarily delayed.
During the conference the pros and cons of parliamentary involvement were addressed by a group of experts, both scholars and (former) politicians, from Germany, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom. Not surprisingly these contributions, evidence of deeply-rooted differences in political and constitutional culture, prompted lively debates.


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2012 has of course yet been another year dominated by Macro, with wild swings in sentiment caused by the European debt crisis and the threat of Middle Eastern conflict. The "risk-on" vs. "risk-off" attitude of the market has been driving driving most hardened stockpickers nuts. In this context, Goldman Sachs published a very interesting piece back in June this year entitled "Bridging macro to micro: GS top-down stock selection" which looked at the interplay between macro and micro factors in relation to stock-picking. It's focused on Asia but a lot of the thinking is of general interest.
Goldman's thoughtful approach is essentially systematising the kind of "trouble in Iran - rising oil prices should drive this stock" anecdotal macro handwaving that you so often see from analysts and market pundits. The aim was to develop a top-down stock picking framework bridging from the macro to the micro by building upon "macro factor mapping, micro-specific comparisons, and business-cycle-based investing".
Bottom-up screening isn't everything...
Unsurprisingly, Goldman Sachs' work found that macro analysis is important to equity returns, even to bottom-up-oriented stock pickers, with factors such as global growth, domestic growth and financial conditions being important return drivers for c. 60% of the market cap of Asian equities. Of course, the problem with macro data is there's so much of it. However, while investors can be overwhelmed by noise, Goldman found certain macro variables to be much more important - said another way, many macroeconomic variables are highly correlated. They found that stock pickers can simplify macro monitoring by focusing on six factors (discussed below) which explain a significant part of an individual stock's return variations.
Essentially their top-down stock-picking process involves three steps:
- What phase of the business cycle are we in and, for that phase, how are the key macro-economic factors positioned?
- In light of this macro environment, which stocks are expected to do best based on stock specific regressions for each macro factor?
- Having determined relative macro rankings across the equity market, how are micro factors (i.e. valuation, fundamentals and technical indicators) likely to impact expected returns?
The Business Cycle amp; Macro Factors
As explained in more detail in their paper "Global Economics Paper No: 214, Acceleration Matters: Asset Returns and the Business Cycle", using their proprietary "Global Leading Indicator" (GLI), the GS team define four distinct phases of the business cycle by looking at the interaction of GLI growth/momentum with GLI acceleration (changes in momentum growth). The GLI looks to be essentially a Goldman Sachs' souped up version of the OECD Leading Indicator. The four phases are: 1) expansion (i.e. positive growth and positive acceleration), 2) slowdown (positive growth and negative acceleration), 3) contraction (negative growth and negative acceleration) and 4) recovery (negative growth and positive acceleration).
Depending on which phase we are in, this will then correspond to a certain range of values for the following six key macro-factors:
- Market risk (i.e. the "beta" versus the local market index)
- Domestic growth - Goldman use something called the Current Activity Index (CAI) to estimate the trend rate of growth in GDP.
- Domestic policy/liquidity - This assesses how accomodative monetary policy is measuring using their Financial Conditions Index (FCI) - discussed in depth here.
- Domestic inflation (as measured by the CPI)
- Oil prices (as measured by the WTI)
- Global growth (as measured by the GLI)
Using regression techniques, Goldman were able to establish linkages between these macro factor and each stock's expected returns. As you'd expected, there were varying degrees of macro explanatory power for each stock (as represented by the R-squared of the regression). For example, Goldman found TATA Consultancy Services has tended to move very closely with GLI momentum (a 1% GLI increase apparently corresponded to a 15% share price increase) which they attributed to TCS's business concentration in global developed markets. In the case of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, they found that 74% of share price variations can be explained by four factors: its high market beta (presumably reflecting given the centrality of China concerns to the market return), inflation changes (because of the knock-on effects for loan pricing), financial conditions (because this impacts loan growth and NPL risks) and, finally, global growth (although, interestingly, this was not as sensitive as one might expect for a Chinese bank).
Not forgetting the Micro — valuation, fundamentals and TA
While this analysis partly explain returns variations, they found that no stock had close to a 100% fit in such a macro-factor regression model. Unsurprisingly, there are other factors at play which drive stock returns. Some stocks are driven more by the macro, others more by the micro (i.e. EPS growth and valuation levels). In the case of a company like Samsung, they found very low correlation with any major macro-factors.
To address this, Goldmans then overlaid micro considerations such as a) valuation, b) micro-fundamentals, and c) technical entry levels to derive a micro Z-score:
A. Valuation Parameters: Interestingly, they chose three main valuation factors: 1) Forward Price Earnings, 2) Trailing Dividend Yield, and 3) Trailing Price to Book. While they found that Price to Cashflow has strong predictive power on forward returns at a market level, they excluded it for stock picking given its short and unstable time series at an individual stock level.
B. Micro-Fundamentals: They then look at the changes in consensus earnings or earnings expectations to assess stock's micro dynamics, specifically 1. Earnings revision (magnitude), 2. Earnings sentiment (breadth) and 3. Consensus target price change. Although there is some signal in broker recommendations, there isn't much and one wonders why they didn't opt for the Piotroski F-Score as a better signal for the trend in fundamental health.
C. Technical Indicators: Finally, their approach looks at technical indicators to form a view on short-term entry levels. They group TA indicators into four categories - momentum, volatility, trend and volume - and choose to focus on the following three indicators as being most commonly used: 1. RSI (for momentum) which we discuss here, 2. Bollinger bands (for volatility), 3. Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (discussed here). Interestingly, they disregarded volume-based indicators on the basis that they require a time-series perspective to form trading signals and an absolute number does not tell much. You can market screen based on RSI and MACD using our new Chart Signals package - we'll be adding top down Bollinger Band screening to this shortly.
Does it Work?
Over ten years of backtesting, Goldman's "macro + micro" portfolio showed an impressive 11.4% average annualized outperformance (326%, versus 165% for the benchmark on a market-cap-weighted basis). One clear concern - acknowledged by the authors - is the extent to which the relationships found were just data-mining (e.g. were they identifying historical patterns as factors, when in fact they may just be coincidence?). Due to limited data availablity for Asian stocks, the backtest was conducted on an in-sample basis, which is less than ideal from a statistical standpoint.
A final issue is that this kind of macro screening relies on having a decent algorithm and a set of macro regression factors for every stock in the market, which is not something you tend to just find lying around! Unlike fundamental factors which are conveniently listed in the annual report (more or less). Still, it's interesting to see it implemented and it wouldn't be beyond the wit of a sufficiently motivated investor to generate something similar given, say, 10 years of stock prices and the corresponding macro-economic data points.
Further Reading
- GS Global Strategy Paper: No. 3: AsiaPac Valuation: What works, and when
- GS Portfolio Strategy: "Corporate Asia" Earning: from Macro to Micro
- GS Portfolio Strategy: What macro indicators matter for Asian markets?
- Global Economics Paper No: 214: Acceleration Matters: Asset Returns and the Business Cycle
Read more posts on Stockopedia »


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GLC 300 trim. Mercedes-Benz Certified, GREAT MILES 50,803! EPA 28 MPG Hwy/21 MPG City! Power Liftgate, Back-Up Camera, Full-Time 4MATIC® All-Wheel, Aluminum Wheels, Turbo Charged Engine. SEE MORE!
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We're Driven to Delight. It is not just a phrase, but it is a path, a promise, and a belief. It is a commitment to creating positive relationships that will make people smile while giving them a sense of complete trust. Driven to Delight is also a reminder that the journey is never done and that there is always a more thoughtful way.
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Dubb - Under Dogg Freestyle / Interview
Dubb End's his BlackFriday Freestyle's with Video's on the Real BlackFriday. Week's 11 & 12 . Dubb Rap's Over the Underdog Track Feat Nate Dogg
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- TypeModern
- BandSteel Bracelet
- Case MaterialSteel
- ConditionMint
- MovementAutomatic
Steinhart GMT Ocean 1 Blue Red – Pre Owned
Used but mint condition Steinhart GMT Ocean 1 Blue Red automatic divers watch originally purchased from us in July 2014. The sporty ruggedness of the Ocean makes it stand out from other diver watches. The design is one based on a classic divers design. Its solid design guarantees highest resilience as well as an outstanding quality. Within the large genre of sports diver watches the GMT Ocean 1 Blue Red is one of the few examples in its price range which demonstrates such an excellent cost-performance ratio. Made by Steinhart, one of Germany's independent up and coming brands. The watch is a large size with a classic looking case and dial design which combines sports/diver styling, high engineering standards and highly competitive price. The case is made from stainless steel which is polished and brushed finished. The dial is matt black with luminous indices luminous filled classic style divers "mercedes" hands. The dial and hands are Super Luminova C1 white. The crown is a large screw down crown and has protective shoulders. It has got a uni directional ratcheted rotating bezel with classic red and black bezel indicating the twenty four time zone split into day and night by the colour scheme. It has a date at the 3 position which has a Cyclops magnifying lens. The crystal is a flat scratch resistant sapphire. It has got a screw on case back which is solid stainless steel, engraved with Steinhart's logo. The movement is a Swiss made ETA 2893-2 automatic winding movement which is the industry standard for Swiss and German made GMT automatic watches. It is a 21 jewel movement with Nivarox spring balance and Inca bloc shock protection. The functions include hours, minutes and seconds displayed by the central sweep hand, and second time zone GMT hand. The second hand is a hack hand which stops when setting the time for accurate time synchronisation. It is 30 ATM which is about 300 metres so is fully water proof. It comes on a good quality steel bracelet with flip lock safety clasp. Steinhart reference number is T0203 blue red. Dimensions are as follows. Width is 42 mm excluding the crown, 46 mm including the crown, lug to lug is 50 mm and thickness is 14.5 mm. The lug width is 22 mm and the weight of the watch is 190 g.


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Priests for Life Takes HHS Mandate to Supreme Court!
Date: March 11, 2014
Contact: Leslie Palma
WASHINGTON, D.C. – Fr. Frank Pavone, National Director of Priests for Life, made the following announcement today:
"Priests for Life has taken the next step in our appeal to the US Supreme Court regarding the HHS mandate. Our response to the government's objection to our appeal has been sent to the Court, and the Justices will decide, likely in a matter of days, whether to hear our case.
"Our lawsuit is still on appeal in the Circuit Court in Washington DC, but in matters of particular public urgency, the law permits an appeal to the Supreme Court, even before the lower courts have finished hearing the case.
"Our reply brief was submitted through the American Freedom Law Center, and we are grateful to our attorneys, Robert Muise and David Yerushalmi, for their expertise and their continued commitment to this cause.
"As our reply brief states,
'To ignore the gravity of the moral dilemma caused by the mandate, which is affecting countless lives (and souls), the uncertainty surrounding its enforcement, and the costs and burdens caused by this uncertainty is to ignore reality.'
"The Supreme Court has already agreed to hear arguments regarding the HHS mandate as applied to businesses, like Hobby Lobby. Inevitably, the court will also have to resolve the problem the mandate presents to religious groups, whose rights under the Religious Freedom Restoration Act are even less disputed. Therefore, we are asking them to resolve that issue now.
"As our brief also points out,
'Moreover, what makes review of this case particularly compelling is the fact that this challenge goes to the very core of Priests for Life's reason for existing as an organization. Consequently, Petitioners are well situated—and perhaps best suited—to challenge the mandate and its application to non-exempt, nonprofit religious organizations.'
"We continue to join in prayer and solidarity with the many other plaintiffs who have lawsuits against the mandate, and with all our supporters, on whose help we continue to rely. We will celebrate the victory together!"
Find out more details about the Priests for Life case at www.priestsforlife.org/HHSMandate.
Priests for Life is the nation's largest Catholic pro-life organization dedicated to ending abortion and euthanasia. For more information, visit www.priestsforlife.org.


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A new trailer for director Christopher McQuarrie's thriller Jack Reacher has been released. Like the teaser trailer, the new trailer is predicated on whether or not you can buy Tom Cruise as a bad-ass. Not an action hero—the character even says he's not a hero—but as a take-no-prisoners, borderline anti-hero. Personally, I'm just not seeing it. I like the premise of an army investigator looking into the framing of a sniper, and I'll show up simply to see Werner Herzog play the villain, but ultimately, Jack Reacher is looking like it will suffer from seriously miscasting its title character.
Hit the jump to watch the trailer. The film also stars Robert Duvall, Rosamund Pike, Richard Jenkins, and David Oyelowo. Jack Reacher opens December 21st.
Click over to Yahoo! to watch in HD.
Here's the official synopsis for Jack Reacher:
When a gunman takes five lives with six shots, all evidence points to the suspect in custody. On interrogation, the suspect offers up a single note: "Get Jack Reacher!" So begins an extraordinary chase for the truth, pitting Jack Reacher against an unexpected enemy, with a skill for violence and a secret to keep.


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Eight year-old Eugene McGillicudy is on a mission to protect the universe from a comical, quirky cast of "bad guys" like Queen StinkyPants, Dr. Spinach and Mister Drools. Luckily, his superhero alter-ego is none other than Captain Awesome!
Wheee! Got a new hamster wheel today. It is awesome! Totally gotta work on my sidekick muscles. You never know when I might have to lift up a car or something. Although, I guess, that'd be kinda hard since my arms don't go over my head. Okay, so maybe I won't be able to lift many cars, but if Captain Awesome ever needs to save the world by running really fast inside a giant wheel, you betcha I'm hamster sidekick for the job!
When STAN KIRBY was six years old, he tied a beach towel around his neck and became Super Commander Beach Boy. He tried his best to protect sand castles from the waves, keep seagulls away from his french fries, and keep the beach clean. When Stan's not creating the awesome adventures of Captain Awesome, he loves reading comic books, eating okra, and hang gliding (but not at the same time).
GEORGE O'CONNOR'S cover - as a mild-mannered clerk in one of Gotham's most beloved children's bookstores - was completely blown when his first picture book, KAPOW!, exploded onto the scene. Forced to leave the bookselling world behind, he now spends even more time in his secret Brooklyn, New York, hideout - where he uses his amazing artistic powers to strike fear in the hearts of bad guys everywhere!


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On the heels of my Android Developer Experience article, Google released a major update to its Android mobile operating system in late April 2009. Version 1.5 corrected a number of shortcomings with the initial launch of the OS along with providing some exciting new enhancements.
A number of additions have been included in the 1.5 release to not only bring it to parity with its closest technical competitor, the Apple iPhone, but also to exceed the iPhone's capabilities in key hardware feature sets. Some of the most notable improvements include:
- Onscreen soft-keyboard that rotates in both portrait and landscape mode, just like the iPhone's touch screen keyboard.
- A2DP support for high quality stereo Bluetooth audio reproduction.
- Camcorder application and API for capturing 15 fps videos with the ability to save, email and directly upload to YouTube.
- AppWidgets and its associated API designed to expose and extend dynamic application functionality to the Android desktop.
- Live Folders provide dynamic shortcuts to application data like contact lists, video file inventory, emails, documents and more.
Additionally, there are a number of other improvements peppered throughout the existing API's as well as the SDK and Eclipse plug-ins. For example, the new SDK allows the easy creation of profiled Android devices, running a particular version of the OS (1.0, 1.1 or 1.5) or allowing for the automatic creation of a virtual SD card up to 64 MB in size. Such an operation in earlier SDK's was an error-prone chore but the 1.5 SDK release via the version 0.9.1.v200905011822-1621 Android Development Tools and Editors add-ons transform this into a simple painless dialog box.
Design-time form rendering is also now available While one can still not 'paint' a form by dragging and dropping controls onto a design surface, the updated Eclipse Android editor plug-ins accurately pre-render the layout XML code. This considerably speeds up development time, though until a robust design-time layout editor is fully baked into the Eclipse plug-ins, an external designer like the free DroidDraw is still quite helpful and sometimes even necessary.
No More Root for You
Android Developer Phone users will have an unfortunate surprise waiting for them after they download the 1.5 radio and system images from HTC. For developers and their unlocked developer phones, Google also chose to bow to the pressures of the mobile telecoms by removing local root access. As such, the section of my original article covering the ability to su to root-level file access no longer applies when running 1.5. The only legitimate way to gain root-level access to the file system in the 1.5 release is to tether the developer phone to a Apple OSX, Linux or Windows desktop running the Android SDK, executing the adb shell command from a terminal window and then su'ing from that connection. While Google claims it removed root access on the phone for security reasons, it seems obvious to me that they did so in response to hacks that were appearing in the Android Marketplace (like the WiFi Tether for Root Users application) that effectively transformed the phone into a WiFi access point. While I can understand the business reasons for Google appeasing the telecomms, this does prevent legitimate uses of root access (i.e., killing hidden and/or unauthorized background application processes). It also backpedals on Google's marketing of Android as a truly open, developer-friendly platform.
If Google wanted to advise secure practices while appeasing the developer community, it could have instead simply added a adb switch (ex: tether the phone to a SDK-enabled PC, open a terminal window and execute something like a adb unlock command) to open the phone's root access back up if the developer required it. Alas, at least for the 1.5 release, the only other way to obtain root access on the phone is to load a recompiled, unsigned and unsupported kernel such as the 'netfilter-enabled' kernel the developers of the WiFi Tether for Root Users compiled, available Stickcam, Ustream, and others come to mind.


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