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There's a long history of describing an individual that you find unpleasant by using some variation on the great catalog of terms that are used to denote the male genitalia. As you may have heard, MSNBC commenter, Time Magazine editor and all-around MSM Bigfoot Mark Halperin got himself in some trouble for using one of these terms today in describing the Leader of the Free World. Politico offers a synopsis:
MSNBC senior political analyst Mark Halperin was suspended on Thursday by the cable network after he called President Obama "a dick" on a popular morning show and then quickly apologized.While that's a pungent way of describing the matter, it brought on some truly kick-ass Victorian fainting couch posturing and effusive apologetics:
"I thought he was a kind of a dick yesterday," Halperin, who also is an editor at large for Time, said on "Morning Joe," referring to the president's conduct during his press conference.
A couple of hours later, MSNBC issued a statement, saying, "Mark Halperin's comments this morning were completely inappropriate and unacceptable. We apologize to the president, the White House and all of our viewers. We strive for a high level of discourse, and comments like these have no place on our air. Therefore, Mark will be suspended indefinitely from his role as an analyst."Now that's some impressive self-abasement. I don't think Nikolai Bukharin could have done any better, although I give Halperin credit for leaving Hegel out of it.
The cable outlet also put out a statement from Halperin at the same time, saying, "I completely agree with everything in MSNBC's statement about my remark. I believe that the step they are taking in response is totally appropriate. Again, I want to offer a heartfelt and profound apology to the president, to my MSNBC colleagues and to the viewers. My remark was unacceptable, and I deeply regret it."
Time issued a statement later Thursday, calling Halperin's comments "inappropriate and in no way reflective of Time's views."
Now, I'm the first to stipulate that calling someone a dick isn't very nice. As it happens, I used a variation of such language myself this morning, right here on this blog. I wrote:
Man, that Walker is a shmuck.
Shmuck is a Yiddish term that generally means either "a penis" or "an unpleasant person." It's one of several similar words of Germanic origin that work quite well for such descriptions, a list that includes such pungent terms as "putz," "schmeckel" or "schwanz." It's my understanding that it's worse to call someone a "putz" than a "shmuck," while calling someone a "schmeckel" is perhaps somewhere in between. Growing up in Wisconsin, I'd hear the term "schwanz" fairly often, especially among people who were less removed from the old country.
So how should we approach the use of such words? I'll admit that my standard tends to be that I don't use those words, unless I do, and usually I use such words when I'm engaging in mockery. For example, I don't think Scott Walker is a shmuck at all. In fact, I admire much of what he's done, which has taken both courage and resolve, especially in not rising to the baiting of those on the Left who have described him in all manner of terms. I'm guessing this discussion of my, ahem, diction is hardly news to anyone who reads this feature regularly.
Vulgarity is not something we should aspire to, of course, but at the same time words exist and are used for specific reasons. And in the case of Mr. Halperin, I think he chose le mot juste. President Obama's performance at his Wednesday press conference was risible at best and disgraceful most of the time. He engaged in some astonishing demagoguery, especially in the context of his own behavior. Consider this comment:
Look, I think that what we've seen in negotiations here in Washington is a lot of people say a lot of things to satisfy their base or to get on cable news, but that hopefully, leaders at a certain point rise to the occasion and they do the right thing for the American people. And that's what I expect to happen this time. Call me naïve, but my expectation is that leaders are going to lead.Or this comment:
So the question is, if everybody else is willing to take on their sacred cows and do tough things in order to achieve the goal of real deficit reduction, then I think it would be hard for the Republicans to stand there and say that the tax break for corporate jets is sufficiently important that we're not willing to come to the table and get a deal done.
Just a guess -- eliminating a tax break on corporate jets wouldn't mean much in terms of eliminating trillion dollar deficits. But that's not the problem. Today Mitch McConnell and the rest of the Republicans in the Senate offered to meet with the President. The response?
White House press secretary Jay Carney, while not directly saying the invitation had been rejected, said Obama did not need to hear Republicans tell him what they would not support.I think we can safely assume that Jay Carney, as the president's press secretary, speaks for the president. So, would you describe that response, in the context of Obama's hectoring of Republicans a day previous, as the handiwork of a statesman? Or of a
That, Carney said, was "not a conversation worth having."


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He's the Top
The Paintings and Sketches of Louis I. Kahn
Louis I. Kahn: Writings, Lectures, Interviews
Louis I. Kahn: In the Realm of Architecture 1991–January 5, 1992), Centre Georges Pompidou, Paris (March 5–May 4, 1992), the Museum of Modern Art, New York (June 14–August 18, 1992), the Museum of Modern Art, Gunma, Japan (September 26–November 3, 1992),
Louis I. Kahn: In the Realm of Architecture
The Art Museums of Louis I. Kahn University Museum of Art by
The great misfortune of Louis Kahn's long-thwarted but ultimately triumphant career was in his being born in 1901, a poor year for modern architects. Too young during the first flood of modernism after World War I, Kahn was out of phase with cycles of economics and politics that largely determine when, what, how, and how much an architect builds. This leviathan was often marooned by circumstances that destroyed lesser figures, as poverty in the 1930s and war in the 1940s took their toll on his contemporaries. Thus one of the wonders of Louis Kahn's professional life is that this most slowly developing of modern masters was able to persevere against immense odds and to be considered—after a mature phase of just twenty years, from the early Fifties to the early Seventies—by most historians as the leading mid-century American architect.
Only Frank Lloyd Wright made as great a challenge to business-as-usual in the twentieth-century architecture of this country. Philip Johnson, an acute judge of other architects' talents, once cunningly called Wright "the greatest architect of the nineteenth century." Similarly, Johnson has justified his friendships with much younger colleagues by claiming that the architects of his own generation—including the Rockefeller courtier Wallace Harrison and the corporate favorite Gordon Bunshaft—held little interest for him. But Johnson conveniently forgot his towering contemporary Louis Kahn, whose brave quest, amid the institutional platitudes of postwar American modernism, for an architecture that would have a deeper meaning served as a strong reproach to the clever careerism and accommodating strategies of Johnson and his peers.
Born in Estonia in the first year of this century, Kahn was a full generation younger than the International Style architects of the first wave, including the two greatest, Le Corbusier and Ludwig Mies van der Rohe. Kahn possessed neither the inventiveness of Le Corbusier nor the elegance of Mies. Architecture—both its conception and its execution—always remained a struggle for Kahn. He lacked extensive practical experience until well into middle age and never mastered the appearance of effortlessness that many creators use to conceal their labors, just as his inability to mask his personal awkwardness made potential clients believe they were dealing with an unreliable eccentric.
For the two decades of his life before his death in 1974, Kahn was unusually dependent on the advice of his chief consultant, the structural engineer August E. Komendant, who helped to compensate for Kahn's lack of technical expertise. Kahn himself made up for this deficiency with his extraordinary persistence (misinterpreted by impatient clients as dilatoriness). His tenacity can still be felt in the obdurate strength he gave to his best designs.
Kahn's peak achievements include this century's most successful art gallery, the Kimbell Art Museum of 1966–1972 in Fort Worth, as well as the most inspiring capitol building, the National Assembly Building of 1962–1983 in Dacca. They stand with Le Corbusier's and Mies's finest works as monuments to the belief that modern architecture could attain a presence commensurate with that of the noblest architecture…
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subset: commoncrawl


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ADDISON – State Sen. Tom Cullerton, D-Villa Park, is displaying an Addison Trail High School student's artwork in his office.
A senior at Addison Trail, Aime Zuniga's artwork was chosen to display for the month of October after Cullerton's staff called Addison Trail art teacher Tim Hockensmith looking for student work. Cullerton's staff wanted to feature work from students in the 23rd District, which the senator represents.
This is Zuniga's first display, which features 12 pieces.
Zuniga's artwork can be viewed at Cullerton's office, 338 S. Ardmore Ave., Villa Park.


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Tagged: Conventions
Service Profit Centers at Convention Centers – Electric Services – How to Evaluate Current Business and Improve Revenues and Profit
In today's convention centers designers have specified electrical capacity and distribution to service any event in the market with respect to electrical demand per square foot. They have truly "built the church Easter Sunday". The distribution network is uniformly distributed in floor boxes across exhibit halls for 110/208V applications and there is usually a high voltage (460V) bus or connection panel overhead to handle discrete heavy electrical loads or to supplement floor box capacity. In my experience I have only seen a capacity problem a few times and that was just for an exhibit hall, not the full facility. Normally for events, convention centers experience a high diversity factor. Diversity factor is defined as: Total Connected Load/Actual Maximum Load and it demonstrates the degree in which surplus electric capacity was designed and built. The investment in the electrical infrastructure; floor boxes, distribution cabling (embedded in exhibit hall floors), distribution panels, transformers, switchgear, and high voltage feeders (with capacity redundancy) is substantial and rarely fully utilized. The recurring costs of cleaning, maintenance and periodic testing is significant also.
How Are Electric Services Rendered for an Event?
A team of electricians normally begins connecting, labeling and laying out cable for each exhibitor ordered service, directly following exhibit booth mark-out. Cables are coiled and labeled at the back end of each booth or laid out, taped down and positioned in accordance with exhibitor plans. The usual service is one plug-in point and services are sold in that fashion. High voltage service requiring an overhead cable drop is normally supplied at the same time. Other services; connecting exhibitor equipment, installing rented lights, and dressing wires are completed during construction of the exhibit booth. For a well organized team, the fulfillment of advance orders before the event commences move in can be done efficiently, before freight move in is well underway and detailed exhibit building begins. Fulfillment of electrical orders received on site is of course more difficult and time consuming. Labor is by far the largest cost element in rendering electric service, other cost elements, materials, supervision, electrical consumption and administration are relatively minor.
Electric Services as a Convention Center Profit Center
Electric service ranks in the top three or four profit centers for convention centers along with rent, food & beverage sales and internet/telecommunications. It's a reliable source of revenue and necessary to reduce dependence on subsidies to cover operating expenses. If your center has the opportunity and drive to reach a position of needing no subsidy – where earned revenue will cover expenses and then some, your team will need electric services to achieve that goal.
There are three typical business arrangements:
- Self Operation (also referred to as "in-house") – The convention center provides this service through their own utilities division. The division is responsible for all aspects of the business; management and floor supervision, administrative of service orders, obtaining a labor force with all the HR functions included (hiring, firing, training, payroll, etc.) , material purchasing and inventory control, planning and implementing event installation, customer service, and probably a great deal more.
- Exclusive Electrical Contractor – Convention centers may choose to have an exclusive contract with an electrical contractor. The choice of contractor is normally the result of a competitive process. The process is characterized by rigorous due diligence which examines all the aspects of operating a service business. Final selection often requires approval of the board of directors. Commission rates range from as low as 12% to as high as 35%. Occupancy and the nature of booked events clearly influence commission value.
- Open (Show Manager's Choice) – This choice is not as open as the phrase implies. Convention centers normally must approve the contractor and many already have a list. Los Angeles Convention Center for example has three approved contractors. Sometimes the center will issue a "preferred" list of contractors. The review or vetting process for approval usually covers items like a financial review, a safety record review and adherence to required union collective bargaining agreements. Most convention centers require a fee or commission on gross revenue be paid by the contractor to the convention center for use of the facility.
Pricing of Electric Services
Most convention centers and/or their exclusive electrical contractors price their services on a market basis. Convention center management recognizes that cost- plus pricing, while simple and easy to justify, is not an effective pricing strategy. Cost- plus ignores competition. A convention center could decide on service prices based on the cost- plus formula and then be surprised when it finds competitors charging substantially different prices. This can unfavorably impact on the profits a center can expect to achieve or put their market share at risk due to high prices. The center either ends up pricing too low and giving away profits, or pricing too high and experiencing an erosion of revenues.
A typical price schedule sets prices in accordance with different operating voltages and electrical demand (watts) for 110/120 Volt service and in current (Amps) for 208 and 460 Volt service. For the later there is a premium placed on three phase service. The prices of course vary from city to city and it's evident that consideration is given to the pricing of regional and national competitors. Rental items such as plug-in strips or display lighting are also priced on a market basis. At first glance of an electric service form these prices appear as a flat fee. It's the application of labor charges to these flat prices which make things confusing and questionable; often a source of resentment from exhibitors. Hourly labor prices (which are wages, benefits, taxes plus a mark-up) are high considering the rudimentary level of skill and training required. Some convention centers, Boston Convention and Exhibition Center, the Javits Center, the Orange County Convention Center, the Austin Convention Center, the Indiana Convention Center include labor in the price of all 110/120V, 208V and 460V service. From a customer service view this is a wise and politic pricing strategy. There is predictability for exhibitors and there is no uncertainty or distrust of labor productivity. The margin risk is all on the convention center.
Which Business Arrangement Fits Your Business Model and Financial Goals?
There is a tipping point where self operation of electric services makes the most business sense. It would require a favorable history of occupancy and electrical revenue per net square foot with reliable forecasts of consistency and growth. As a rough estimate, I believe the tipping point would be an occupancy rate of about 50% where the majority of the events are trade and consumer shows or conventions with exhibits. Otherwise, the sensible course is to retain an exclusive electrical contractor, large enough to sustain business due to work elsewhere. The contractor must be able absorb the overhead required to keep the convention center arm active and to reliably organize a capable work force for events.
Convention centers contemplating a transition from an Open arrangement to an Exclusive Contractor or Self Operation will find a more challenging situation. The Open arrangement typically exists in convention centers which are large with excellent occupancy, and well booked with trade and consumer shows and conventions with exhibit floors. It exists in Las Vegas, San Diego, Los Angeles, Anaheim and San Francisco. It also exists in Miami Beach and Chicago at McCormick Place. The Open arrangement is an attractive bonus for tradeshow managers as most contractors working directly for the show pay show management a commission on revenues received from exhibitors. Convention centers too often demand a user fee from whatever electrical contractor the show manager selects, dividing the contractor's revenue further.
There will be controversy surrounding the decision if a center elects to change certain businesses from Open to Exclusive or Self Operation. There has been one recent controversy that became very public. The example often cited is the dispute between the San Diego Convention Center and United National Maintenance. It involved transitioning from an Open business arrangement for event cleaning services to Self Operation. The dispute carried on for years through the courts and then to an Appeals court before the ruling came supporting the convention center. Negative publicity was aggressive and shrill. Tradeshow advocacy organizations (SISO, ESCA, IAEE) all offered support warning the San Diego Convention Center's actions would "….. most likely will cause organizers to look for more user-friendly venues " and "create an open door policy that will allow the center to institute new practices of exclusivity that can reduce service and increase costs to all parties." The outcome has been that the San Diego Convention Center is still a venue in great demand and has just finished their most successful year. The irony is that none of the assertions about service quality and high prices are true. Convention centers which have an Open arrangement for electric services are by far the highest prices nationwide (see table below). We researched several price schedules for each Open arrangement and it was rare that we found service and labor prices set at a value to help exhibitors (see table below). Additionally, it was evident that certain business practices such as piling on high priced labor to 110/208 or 460V service, charging absurd labor prices for service ordered while on site, insisting that all electrical work, no matter how rudimentary, is the jurisdiction of their electricians, are the norm. A review of current service order forms nationwide showed these practices slowly disappearing from convention centers which are handled by Exclusives or are Self Operation.
In the table below note that the 110V prices are composite prices based on historical service order proportions at the Javits Center; 500W – 52%, 1000W – 24%, 1500W – 16.5%, 2000W – 7.5%.
Considering the business volume in trade and consumer shows at some of the convention centers the prospect of changing from Open to Self Operation is very attractive. The pricing could be moderated and stabilized somewhat, service prices could become flat rates, the time and material charges could be eliminated, center management would have another fee that could be used during negotiations to attract new business and of course profits in excess of the fees already received are a certainty. The legacy of current pricing and the fact that revenues are not divided up for commission and fees to others make it so. Self operation would give the center better control over staffing, better negotiating leverage over the union work rules and better control over circumstances where there is a series of events with compressed move in time. I acknowledge that this would be a tough decision. Perhaps it is in your best interest to leave things alone, allow the shows another opportunity to profit. I personally have seen shows which were having great success at the Javits Center, take the risk and choose another city and venue where rent concessions were offered that Javits would not match. Above all the advantages New York had, more attendees, more exhibitors, more media attention, profit mattered most. My advice if you are considering such a move is to be impeccably well prepared, prepare your board leadership for the criticism and over-the-top claims from the trade show industry and trade show press, prepare your legal team for some form of legal action, be strong and assertive when the dialogue gets out-of-bounds both in fact and tone and conjure up a little intestinal fortitude.
Ways to Increase Electric Service Revenues and Profit
Understanding, Evaluating and Acting on Your Pricing Power
For those unfamiliar with the term "pricing power", Investopedia explains it like this,
Pricing power is an economic term referring to the effect that a change in a firm's product price has on the quantity demanded. Pricing of that product power ties in with the Price Elasticity of Demand. Generally speaking, if a company doesn't have much pricing power then an increase in their prices would lessen the demand for their products." In this circumstance, demand elasticity may be seen in certain exhibitors choosing not to exhibit, or a reduction in the size and complexity of exhibit booths, or worse – an event manager re-locating to another city and venue because of high prices.
Comparing Base Pricing – Shown below are two examples (Orange County Convention Center and Austin Convention Center) which were chosen because they were clearly underpriced compared to regional and national competitors. The examples also demonstrate how pricing power can be evaluated.
- Orange County Convention Center – The Orange County Convention Center has a 9.6% market share of "Top 250" trade shows and conventions, ranking 2nd in this highly competitive market. The facility is a formidable competitor nationwide for many economic sectors. The analysis below shows how the center ranks with respect to electric service pricing when compared to direct competitors for Top 250 events and major medical events that rotate annually from city to city. It's important to note that in both examples market share and the price of electric services had no statistical correlation, i.e., high electric prices did not lower market share nor did low electric service prices increase it.
Given the above, what is the pricing power available to the Orange County Convention Center? For Medical events, the center ranks at about the median and below the average of $145.19 by 2.7%. For Top 250 events the center ranks below the average of $155.30 by 10%. A comparison of single phase 208V service prices shows an even greater split between Orange County and the other market share leaders of over 75%. While the proportion of high voltage service for trade shows is low compared to 110V, the span of difference only adds to the pricing power that Orange County possesses.
From Orange County's annual reports it was learned that revenues derived from electric services are about $11 million annually. The price adjustment of 10% would yield an additional $1.1million and would not pose a business risk. It would have to be rolled out gradually and with some forethought and finesse. For example, would the price increase affect the convention center brand element of affordable pricing? Based on the analysis above, I do not think it would.
- Austin Convention Center – The Austin Convention Center is enjoying a lift in reputation driven by such popular events as South by Southwest (SXSW) which has become a national music and cultural event. It is also a venue in demand for IT sector events and annual meetings for state professional associations. The state association business is a sector that it must compete for against other Texas cities and venues. The analysis below compares electric service prices to other state venues.
The Austin Convention Center is nearly 40% less than the average price for 110V services (the most ordered services). From the City of Austin's annual reports it was learned that revenues derived from electric services are about $2.5 million annually. The price adjustment of 10% would yield an additional $250,000 and would not pose a business risk; 20% would yield $500,000.
Both Orange County and Austin are good examples of how a relatively simple analysis can expose some revenue opportunities which don't require investment and on the surface pose little business risk. Cautious convention center management may need better assurances of how an underpriced revenue situation could be solved using pricing power while not adversely affecting the normal exhibitor service requirements or their intentions to increase service. In this instance I would recommend a survey of exhibitor attitudes be done independently.
Another Method to Use Pricing Power – Make All Exclusive and Self Operation Electric Service Order Forms Access Controlled – There are other methods related to the service pricing and the presentation of the pricing schedule which can be used, especially with a self operation arrangement, to increase revenue. These methods are practiced mostly by the electrical contractors who work in the Open arrangement previously described. There appears to be a real "tradecraft" in their practice. There are many reasons related to security for making all on-line service orders access controlled. Access control also all permits convention centers to make price changes based on the type of event or prior history of the event; certain industry sectors are less price sensitive than others, prior event history may show that certain service or rental items are ordered more than others, certain type of events may have more late or floor orders than others, etc. In all cases the pricing adjustments should go up, not down and most importantly – don't overreach.
Increasing Profit through Productivity Gains
Structural Changes to Electric Service Work Jurisdiction – There is a silent conflict that exists between two trade groups and their work jurisdictions which impedes the ability to increase productivity and profit for electric services. The conflict is between electricians and carpenters or stage hands (who assemble exhibit booths). In most exhibits there is some placement, dressing or connection of electric cables to devices which are integral to exhibits or attached such as a video screen or exhibitor owned display lighting. The connections referred to are simply devices using a straight stab plug to a power source supplied or an extension cord. Electricians generally win the argument. That means that electricians normally have to re-visit the exhibit booth sometime after the base power is supplied. At this point the aisles are crowded with freight, other tradesmen and exhibitors. It's time consuming, so the time to fulfill an electric order is increased and productivity declines
Two convention centers have recognized this and wisely changed these rules, the Boston Convention and Exhibition Center and the Orange County Convention Center. In both cases the service order forms state that electricians are not required to be used for electric distribution within the exhibit booth; General Service Contractors or EACs (carpenters) or exhibitors may do that work themselves.
The Javits Center Experience in Boosting Productivity – 1997 to 2008 – By the end of 2000 Javits management reckoned that their electric service pricing power had run out; that increasing service prices may result in a decline in service order growth, exhibitor complaints and possibly recurring shows looking for other venues. Our national competitors had begun to moderate their prices but more disquieting was that some competitors had started to offer heavily discounted rent or no rent in order to gain market share. We had been casually tracking key performance indicators (KPIs) such as labor hours per billable item, electric revenues per net square foot per show and per exhibit hall and order fulfillment percentage per move in day. Now the KPIs had become much more meaningful and we acted on what the KPIs showed. We set productivity goals, labor hours per billable item and electric revenue per net square foot per exhibit hall worked best. We held labor supervision accountable for improvements in labor productivity and surprisingly did not have to make many personnel changes. Productivity climbed. Profit margins climbed concurrently to about 30%. Once the work habits and routines and the necessary levels of productivity were understood and accepted, price increases became modest, keeping us competitive. Labor rates did not have to be applied to service rates because we had confidence in including labor costs in flat rates.
Adding New Products and Services
Here are a few examples of things that have worked:
- Sale of extension cords of differing lengths
- Sale of spare light bulbs. Carry a ready inventory of common retail display lighting
- Rental of high wattage light fixtures with a high color rendition index (above 80). If your center hosts fashion, textile, gift, automobile or art shows, then an investment in this type of lighting may be a worthwhile expenditure. The lighting is normally suspended from overhead lighting truss or catwalks. The price point for rental units is high ($ 325 at the Sands in Las Vegas and $341 at the Javits Center). Sales volume is also very high. At Javits this lighting comprised 8% of total annual electric revenue.
- Is your current business arrangement in your center's best interests? Consider self operation of electric services. It may be the best method to increase revenues
- Do a cursory comparison of base pricing, labor pricing and time and material pricing of your regional and national competition .Make judgments about your pricing power. If you find opportunities drill down further
- If results are favorable, create a new pricing schedule and simulate a new year using previous years business volume and service order proportions. Review forecasted revenue results.
- Share results with board members. Persuade them to buy in to a change
- Review all your internal procedures; planning, labor assignments, KPI tracking, material control, etc. for the purpose of increasing productivity. Plan on changes and forecast results.
- Revisit pricing schedule and simulation and factor in predicted productivity gains. Review forecasted profit results.
- Make a decision to launch new electric service pricing
- Invest in software to create on line access control for electric forms for each show
- Launch new pricing. Do so gradually and let show managers know. Don't overreach.
For convention centers interested in improving service revenue and profit, consider the services that MTMConsult, LLC can provide. Our team of experienced practitioners with real field experience will drill down to the important details and provide actionable results.
Email us at firstname.lastname@example.com or call – 203-273-6999
The Math and Logic behind Sales Forecasts in Convention Center Expansion Feasibility Studies
In my time at the Javits Center, I was personally involved in three expansion feasibility studies with two different consulting firms. My intention in this piece to explore the sales and marketing forecasts which are considered and are integral to economic impact estimates and ultimately convention center financing and construction.
The acquisition of investment financing, especially at the scale of a convention center expansion, requires a feasibility study prior to launching the project. Traditionally expansion feasibility studies consist of several phases that fall under these categories:
- A review of history of event activity (# of shows by type, by season or month)
- A review of history of occupancy (the whole convention center, by month, by space – exhibit halls, meeting rooms and ballrooms)
- A review of history of attendance (for all events, by event type, by season or month, with out of town attendees broken out)
- Competitive analysis of the same performance statistics above
- Competitive analysis of the size for the whole facility and by exhibit space (incl. # and size of subdivisions), meeting rooms (sizes and #) and ballrooms
- Destination comparisons and rankings for competitive cities such as reputation as an event city (all and certain sectors) and other city attributes such as hotel inventory and brand mix and distance from the center, airport service and passengers per year, etc.
- Forecast of new events if certain actions/investments are taken. Presumably facility re-fit and renovation and/or expansion.
- Estimate project costs
- Estimate new income
- Estimate ROI
- Estimate incremental quantitative economic value/benefits ( event attendee spending, direct and indirect employment) and qualitative benefits
There are some impediments and challenges to accomplishing the above:
- Firstly, few convention centers keep disciplined records of performance indicators that neatly fit a feasibility analysis (occupancies, net square footages, event attendees, profit/loss per event and per event type or profit/loss per net square foot). Occupancy especially is troublesome because some convention centers measure differently from the prescribed method.
- Secondly, many industries are well covered by academic research and scholarly articles citing statistics and making thoughtful rational explanations. For the convention and trade show industry there are few, especially in regards to convention center expansion. Occasionally there is an insightful article in newspapers or business magazines, but not the scientific or rigorous statistical analysis you might expect to see.
- Thirdly, attendee numbers are mostly self reported by the event managers, very few are audited results. Most experienced convention center management teams regard them as probably exaggerated and unreliable. Conversely hotel room nights are reliably reported and most CVBs track these statistics. However, these statistics are many times under reported. For mature shows that consistently have returning attendees each year, there is anecdotal evidence that many book their own hotel accommodations and are not reported in the "room block" (where the hotel room night statistic is derived).
- Lastly, many feasibility studies were strongly influenced by the intensity and drive of local hospitality businesses, all with the enthusiastic support of political leadership. For consultants it is and was difficult to stay objective. That seems to be changing over the last few years.
Where Things Stand Now
Trade and Consumer Shows and Conventions with Exhibits
Tradeshow and convention directories list over 5,000 trade and consumer shows and association meetings or annual conventions. Generally not listed are private corporate events like annual sales meetings, IT developer conferences, or product roll outs and demonstrations. The very information rich table shown below is taken from CEIR's forecast of industry growth from 2014 through 2017. You can download it at https://www.ceir.org/sites/default/files/CEIR%202015%20Index_Infographic_0.pdf. As shown, the growth rate is 3%, which puts the industry back at pre-recession levels. The only industries in decline are education and government services. Note that the statistics measured which make up the CEIR Index are net square feet, attendees and # of exhibitors, some of the same statistics which are important when judging convention center performance.
Convention Centers
For convention centers there is no CEIR to act as a clearinghouse of data collection and analysis… The industry used to rely on Tradeshow Week (TSW) to periodically publish information in directory style about the amount of exhibit space available nationwide and then apply a percentage growth and make a forecast for the next year. TSW ceased publication in 2007 and the easy to follow directory was not available. It is instructive to look at the rate of growth through the years that TSW was published:
There is no way to statistically tie the scale of total exhibit space and the rate of growth to the scale of shows (expressed in net square footage) and their rate of growth without an extensive research project. Other consultants have tried to make adaptations to the facts they could find supplemented with many assumptions. Their attempts to show the relationship and bring clarity to the subject were noble efforts but they just won't fit into a feasibility document reviewed by bankers, political leaders and of course the public. If you're not convinced there's an oversupply problem which has a material effect on your center's performance, consider these facts:
- The event industry is growing and only a small fraction of convention centers can consistently boast above 50% occupancy, so there's lots of vacant space.
- Falling prices is a marker for oversupply. Oversupply is not uncommon. It extends beyond commodities like wheat, corn or oil. It extends to finished goods like LED lighting where prices have fallen 40%. It extends to convention centers too. Convention centers are still deeply discounting or dropping rent charges to keep market share. You might expect that revenues at convention centers would rise in concert to the revenue increases seen and forecasted in shows. They have not. Most are declining.
How Did This Happen? Why Is There Such a Surplus of Convention Center Space?
Most of us felt there was an oversupply problem 10 years ago. Still from 2005 t0 2015 exhibit space increased over 30%. A vocal critic of new and expanded convention centers emerged in the 1990's, Professor Heywood Sanders (University of Texas-San Antonio). He focused his attention on the obvious – most of the forecasts from feasibility studies did not happen as predicted. In fact they were highly inaccurate. He also focused on the methods in which public officials managed to finance convention center projects. His conclusion was that the events such as the 9/11 attack, while material, would not have stopped the poor performance of expanded convention centers even if the attack had not occurred. His premise was that the studies relied on survey data of expectations (opinions of prospective show managers who were interviewed) and not on actual data. Professional statisticians would agree. They would recognize this common tendency to ignore prior history when making important decisions. Statisticians have given this tendency a name, base rate neglect. Base rate neglect can occur in any field; engineering, science and business. In business, case studies find most managers depend more on new and highly relevant information, favoring it over the base rate Sanders characterized the studies as "faulty analysis, erroneous conclusions". Professor Sanders had and still has powerful disciples. Business writers from well known publications weighed in. Business writer Victoria Murphy wrote an article in the Forbes February 2005 issue "The Answer Is Always Yes". In it she took aim at the Oregon Convention Center:
Today, $116 million in bricks, mortar and carpeting later, Portland's trade hall is struggling. It lost $5.5 million last year on $15.3 million in revenue. Occupancy since the expansion has fallen from 71% to 43%. The Wood Technology Showcase, a Portland event for 34 years and one that expansion boosters cited as needing the enlarged venue, has been postponed because of lagging attendance. The same run-down buildings and third-rate restaurants that always surrounded the center, like Burgerville and a deli that sells sushi and Beanie Babies, are still there.
"We haven't set our sights on being profitable," says Oregon Convention Center's executive director, Jeffrey Blosser. "These are challenging times in our industry."
Challenging? The business is a mess, plagued by a taxpayer-funded burst of expansion and a continuing dearth of customers. Over the last decade cities' annual capital spending on centers has doubled to $2.4 billion, according to a study by the Brookings Institution. The projects are frequently backed by expensive feasibility studies from consultants that rarely give a thumbs-down. Forty-four new or expanded halls are in the works, in hot spots such as Las Vegas and not-so-hot spots like Albany, N.Y. Seven million square feet will be built in the next few years, adding to the 64 million square feet now standing.
Unmentioned at ribbon-cutting ceremonies is that the space will be impossible to fill. The biggest 200 shows, a rolling list measured by Tradeshow Week, are using the same amount of space they did in 1992. Attendance has fallen at most centers, even those with new space such as in Indianapolis, Chicago and Atlanta. The thriving destinations, Orlando, Fla. and Las Vegas (which just announced a $400 million expansion), are stealing smaller shows away from other cities, stuffing in several at a time. The smaller trade halls are discounting, even giving space away.
….. By the end of 2004 the center's finances were in bad shape. To get 34 decent-size shows, the center had to indirectly waive rental fees for the organizers of 10 of them. The building would have lost $15,000 a day if not for $6 million in tax subsidies. Hotels are 60% occupied, as fewer than 30% of convention-goers last year came from outside Portland.
The fix, says center director Blosser, is a new 600-room convention hotel, backed by the city. "We lose a lot of shows because we don't have a big hotel. But it doesn't pencil out for a private company; a hotel here would need help," he says. Blosser commissioned Strategic Advisory Group, an Atlanta consultancy that specializes in convention center and hotel studies, to assess the idea. SAG says the new hotel will bring in annual spending of $116,000 per room.
Maybe Blosser should run those numbers past the folks in St. Louis. In 2003 St. Louis followed a $270 million convention expansion with a 1,081-room, $265 million adjacent hotel, paid for with public and private money. Hospitality Consulting Services projected 800,000 room-nights per year citywide with the addition of the Renaissance hotel. Instead St. Louis is getting only 400,000. A nearby McDonald's closed shop. The neighborhood remains lackluster, punctuated by a store peddling gold chains and a discount sneaker outlet.
In August Moody's downgraded the city's $50 million hotel bonds even deeper into junk. The development group will likely have to drain the $5.7 million left in its reserve fund to service the debt and come up with additional money from stakeholders like Kimberly-Clark. "The assumptions that go into feasibility studies are the problem," says Anne Van Praagh of Moody's. "The outside firms have no financial stake in the business."
There simply was not enough accurate data to clarify and validate demand and what data there was too often interpreted poorly. Professor Sanders believes that the consultants should have known better and expanded their scope to include more historical research. He strongly implies that a group of consultants played the game fast and loose. However as I have experienced, what little they presented was enough for the clients. Clients were more inclined to accept positive interpretations of data and research and readily used it as validation to pursue financing and expanding. There were also many other strategic judgments which had to be made beyond the feasibility studies; competing for tourists and business tourists among cities, creating a means to better distribute the tourism dollar to include seasons which are not traditionally vacation time, bolstering the tourism physical infrastructure, creating steady service industry jobs to working class and immigrant citizens, etc. Enlightened city leadership sees the role of government to invest in those things that are going to support an economic and social strategy for the future. Building the kind of facility that will enable a city to attract and accommodate the kinds of business, academic, professional and investment-related activities that support such a strategy is more of an obligation than an indulgence.
Other Observations, Inferences and Theories
Yes, in hindsight there were some poor decisions made in the 1990's and early 2000's regarding expansion. We know that now. However, some extraordinary world and national events took place during this time which seriously impacted the performance of new and expanded convention centers:
- The internet/IT boom and bust cycle – Certainly everyone took notice when COMDEX was sold in 1995 for $800 million. Many, including convention centers in Las Vegas, New York, San Francisco and other cities profited also. The boom cycle lased for about 5 years. New concepts in technology meant new shows. Large horizontal IT events would spawn vertical shows which would often play at smaller venues. When the market bubble burst in 1999/2000 it was a shock to all venues that had relied on technology trade shows. Some consultants advised their convention center clients that the downturn would be short-lived based on the recent short recession in the early 1990's. Things didn't turn out that way. Then:
- The 9/11 attack – A general malaise settled over the industry, business travel slowed to a crawl, attendance dropped, shows cancelled and other marketing channels were emerged
- Structural changes in marketing communications – Certainly the rise of on-line advertising, shopping and buying had an affect on trade shows and conventions.
- The on- set of the Great Recession 2008 – The pace, the acceleration of business and banking failures, and the loss of market value hit worldwide. Of course this would affect the convention and tradeshow industry profoundly.
- The expansions that took place in the last 10-15 years were either under construction or were in some way committed to proceed. They faced enormous impediments given the events listed above.
Critics and doomsayers of convention center expansions apparently believe that growth industries should be buttoned up and tidy. They are not; they are disorderly and at times chaotic. They have conservatives influences and risk takers. In a highly competitive industry risk takers usually come out on top. Critics should stop and take a top down long view of the convention center business and consider the normal risk factors and business cycles that can and do occur in nearly all growing business sectors. . The consulting firm HVS, explained it best:
As an established industry, continued growth in demand will come not from latent sources, as occurred during the last few decades. Rather, industry growth will depend on new demand, which is affected by numerous factors such as the cost of travel, the importance of face-to-face interaction in certain industries, improvements in facility design, resources available to promote events, trend in how firms allocate their marketing budgets, and overall growth trends in the national economy. In most industries that go through periods of overbuilding (e.g. hotels, residential, shopping malls, and office space), the ability to generate private return on investment eventually limits the expansion of supply. Since most convention facilities are publicly financed, this market discipline is not necessarily present. Instead limited resources of governments and the public decision making processes that consider the merits of capital investment place limits on supply growth. In our experience, most municipalities are not "willing to try almost any investment in their quest for more convention visitors." Concern over the proper allocation of limited resources and historical experiences of success and failure play very important roles in the decision making process. Which brings us to a point of agreement with Sanders' overall conclusions: careful and realistic consideration of the chances of success should inform the public decision making process about investment in convention centers" Concern over the proper allocation of limited resources and historical experiences of success and failure play very important roles in the decision making process.
Expansion project costs are normally quite high but sometimes a good fraction of the financing is not related to expansion of sellable space. Rather, the financing is used to pay for deferred maintenance. Deferred maintenance can be extensive preventive maintenance, corrective maintenance, system upgrades, or repairs that are deferred to a future budget cycle or postponed until funding becomes available. Civic pride, competition among cities for event market share, the city planning practice of creating an anchor or destination spot within cities have caused the construction of massive structures with expensive architectural features and finishes. Many of these building elements and systems are expensive to replace, repair and renovate. They are generally of high quality and durable, reducing the risk of failure. They become easy to defer, repairs are expensive and they can wait. An extreme example is the Javits Center's recent $453million expansion only saw a very modest increase in exhibit space and virtually none in meeting rooms. Rather, 70% of the funds were used for completing deferred maintenance projects for the roof ( which had legendary leaks since the center was built), the curtain wall and roof glass which had gone beyond its useful life and the HVAC mechanical plant ( 8,000 tons of air conditioning capacity supplied by roof top package units). I believe other convention centers face similar problems. Deferred maintenance costs build and compound year to year, while municipal or public authority budgets typically drop these line items year after year. They don't go away and eventually expose themselves with building problems which can affect business. How big can they get? As an example, there is a benchmark for US universities on deferred maintenance – about $3.50 per square foot. Apply that to the square footage of your convention center. Convention centers should know before they build how deferred maintenance costs will affect them in the future. Designers should do a life cycle costing of major systems before construction. Often the most reasonable solution is to attach the deferred items in a bond issue to finance expansion.
Our industry is beginning to sober up regarding expansion feasibility studies. From the few I've read which were written since 2013, I've been most impressed with The Strategic Advisory Group's Colorado Convention Center Feasibility Study (released in 2014). The presentation is crisp with plausible explanations. The study adheres to the principle of measurement validity, i.e., how well the results of a study measure what they are intended to measure. The measures are relevant and are not lost in statistics which are only material if the study was on a national scale, not just Denver. While surveys of existing and prospective clients were done, the report defers to statistics, principally occupancy and occupancy's sub-sets. There's a certain elegance to that. It speaks unvarnished truth and it is all encompassing; all other performance measurements are derived from occupancy. Further it discusses vertical industries and their events which might have a connection to Denver and the Rocky Mountain region. The report examines "city –wides" and effectively explains them in occupancy terms. Lastly it takes the time to discuss the cities brand and tourism attributes and compares them to competitors. The convention center's venue characteristics are important but the foundation of a favorable brand, a place that people emotionally connect with comes first. For convention centers about to launch a feasibility study read this one first.
If I were a convention center manager about to contract with a consulting firm for an expansion feasibility study, here's the scope of services I'd ask for when composing the sales and marketing section:
- A narrative including tables and graphs of convention centers' current position with respect to size and growth and the event industry's size and growth. If information can be obtained about the #, size and growth of corporate events include that also.
- Obtain the following statistics:
- A history of my center's occupancy for at least ten years.
- Breakdown the occupancy by month, exhibit hall, meeting room suite and ballroom, and by type event (tradeshow, consumer show, entertainment, banquet, social gathering, corporate meeting, product roll out, film and photo shoots, etc), by industry sector (medical, financial, consumer goods…..)
- A history of the net to gross square footage percentage for exhibit halls
- A history of occupancy for regional and national competitors
- A history of event attendance (note attendance figures that are audited) by type event and by industry sector)
- A comparison of physical plant characteristics with competitors ( size and number of exhibit halls, meeting rooms, ballrooms) , age, configuration (facility map)
- A history of annual revenue and expenses broken down
- A history of revenue earned per square foot (electric/plumbing, telecommunications, cleaning, F&B, etc.) earned annually and by event type and industrial sector
- A history of competitors' annual revenue and expenses broken down
- A description of hotel inventory – #, rooms, committable rooms, brand mix, distance from center
- A description of restaurants, nightclubs, concert venues in and around the hotels and convention center
- A description of the airport ( # of direct flights to certain cities, annual passengers, etc.)
- A comparison of city brand and reputation with competitors from an economic or social research organization such as Bloomberg Business, the Miliken Institute, The Reputation Institute, and others. Develop a composite rating
- Describe the verticals that occupy the center and include verticals that have events at other city venues. Characterize whether the verticals are or are not a reliable prospect.
- Closely examine the Lost Business reports for the past 5 years. If you consider them unreliable then insist that they be re-visited. Differentiate between turn-aways because of lack of space and /or time of year or days of week and lack of certain services, from service quality, from pricing issues and from destination issues ( such as the quality of hotels, the city crime rate, the city's overall reputation, etc.
- Develop a list of new prospects and assign priorities based on probabilities of a booking. Do not simply make generalizations about the size and growth of the market and through a judgment call contrive a number of new events
- Construct an Occupancy Model for 3 years forward. Put it in a calendar form and footnote each event with a probability.
I would consider the above phase 1. of the study. There is no need to go further with an economic impact evaluation if the above is unfavorable.
Perhaps you just received a feasibility study for a sizable expansion. Need a second opinion from a team that's been there and done that? We can conduct a peer review of your feasibility study and point out strengths and weaknesses. These decisions are matters of trust. Consider MTMConsult, LLC .
Email us at email@example.com or call – 203-273-6999


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Diddy Not Feeling The Way Whitney Houston Threw Bobby Brown Under The Bus! "If We Gonna Be Smoking Crack Together Than.. Thats What We Did" [Audio]
Shout out to Mr. Exclusive
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This shows the abandoned slate cutting benches in the Dinorwic quarry. The slate was cut and split on the mountains. Then the slate tiles were paced into the waggons and lowered via in incline system down to the railway tracks from where it went to the nearest port in Y Felinheli.
A web site with a lot of information on the Dinorwic quarry (and other welsh quarries) can be found at http://www.penmorfa.com/Slate/dinorwic.html
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What are the most important differences between the ACSI Club ID and CampingCard ACSI?
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Goat's cheese chicken with warm lentils & sweet beets
Nutrition and extra info
- Egg-free
Nutrition: per serving
- kcal661
- fat28g
- saturates8g
- carbs43g
- sugars14g
- fibre0g
- protein62g
- salt2.52g
- 500g raw beetroot, peeled and cut into wedges
A favourite in 1970s British salads (cooked and pickled in vinegar), beetroot is a root…
- 12 shallots, halved if large
Related to the onion (as opposed to being a younger version of it), shallots grow in clusters at…
- 3 tbsp clear honey
- 6 tbsp mild olive oil
Olive oilol-iv oyl
Probably the most widely-used oil in cooking, olive oil is pressed from fresh olives. It's…
- 1 lemon, zest and juice
Oval in shape with a pronouced bulge on one end, lemons are one of the most versatile…
- 350g Puy lentil
The lentil plant (Lens Culinaris) originates from Asia and North Africa and is one of our oldest…
- 1 big garlic clove, roughly chopped
- 2 tbsp capers
Capers are the small flower buds of the Capparis shrub that grows in the Mediterranean. As they…
- 1 tbsp Dijon mustard
- 100g bag mixed green leaves
For the chicken
- 6 large boneless skinless chicken breasts
- 150g tub Chavroux soft goat's cheese
- 20g pack flat-leaf parsley, chopped
- 18 rashers thin-cut smoked streaky bacon
Heat oven to 220C/fan 200C/gas 7. Put the beetroot and shallots into a roasting tin, drizzle with honey and 1 tbsp oil, season, then toss well. Cover with foil, then roast for 1 hr, turning after 30 mins and leaving the foil off. Splash half the lemon juice over the veg when they're ready, then set aside. Can be made up to 1 day ahead.
Meanwhile, boil the lentils, then drain and rinse well. Make a dressing by whizzing the garlic, capers, remaining oil, lemon juice and mustard together with seasoning. Add a couple tbsp water to loosen. Set aside.
Turn the chicken breasts upside down, then pull each mini fillet to the side, without detaching it. Cut a pocket into the thickest part of the fillet. Repeat with the rest. Mix the lemon zest with the goat's cheese, half the parsley and seasoning, then stuff about 1 tsp cheese into each pocket. Fold the mini fillets back over to seal. Wrap each breast in 3 rashers of bacon, then sit on a baking tray. Can be prepared up to a day ahead. Roast with the veg for 20 mins until the bacon is crisp and cooked through.
To serve, warm the lentils in the pan, stir the remaining parsley into most of the dressing, then tip in the warm lentils. Spoon onto plates with some of the roast beets and shallots, scatter over the salad leaves, top with the chicken, sliced in half, then drizzle over remaining dressing.


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Barron's Bounce: Shares of Ryder on the Move
Jack Hough and Sam Mamudi discuss Barron's magazine picks that are moving higher today, including truck-leasing company Ryder and three telecom companies.
This transcript has been automatically generated and may not be 100% accurate.
I ... one of the on balance all of the stocks are moving ever mention in Barron's on this past week and I'm just how ... Whitney CMO moody ... looking nice with a blue blazer good thing we have a different color Times tells a part ... I saw brighter ... the truck rental companies was ... was up a bit today after a positive mention the magazine on what's out well ... yet Ryder's up about two percent ... us underwater to read a story about to ... it's a great story ... they've been beaten expectations for the last four quarters ... I'm stoked up about twenty five percent in both the ship but we think and up another twenty percent in the next twelve months and still still looks cheap after that the drugs ... did does will do them ... the central issues in to chart a synergistic ... and the feeling is that a lot of companies ... new regulations and has generated a complex here right now the economy is that ... they can be looking to outsource as functions mall and ... ask where I they can benefit and incur further ... from the new heroes regulation scientist or is this ... a lot of our regulations with European telecoms right now ... Tom Lydon dogs for awhile ... the problem in Europe are now as they're falling behind the U S when it comes to high speed broadband fiber optic connections going homes also high-speed ... cellphone networks ... and plentiful connections ... among the latest generation supper on time because no one wants to build ... an access to regulations that forced the big European telecoms ... to sell access to the networks cheaply ... to these upstart rivals ... the thinking was will bring a lot of competition I will drive down prices ... masterworks ... no one's making any money no one wants to build ... the euro because he knew that now I think it pours for some regulatory shifts ... over the next ... year in two months ... aam and I can be good news for some of the old school telecom players ... who wanted to get the biggest boosts are companies like a aam ... Telekom France Telecom Italia ... the prom is ... that in those are troubled businesses they'll remember the slow growth market so I pointed ... to Deutsche Telekom ... and Telefonica in Amenas ones are a little bit stronger can also stand to benefit from ... this for positive regulatory change right now in you mention goes to Deutsche Telekom has interest from the U S because of the team about connections well ... absolutely and have a new listing for that stock ... up about twenty percent suspicions Getting was in the U S and the dinner menu think what's changed is just knew was going on ... sometimes I can just get investors' attention and ... give them reason to to to get a second look Deutsche Telekom so ... I think the stock has has room to rise right now ... aam ... big five sports ... is down about fifty five percent while price on another negative mention them in a magazine is what's happening that they did it and it is openness and stock up ... today spending it all down it's something that has recommended a couple times low-cost in September and December ... I'm a heehee joint bid for appealing the turnaround story but now I think he fails ... to hunt and thirty three cents in September ... accent since December ... David is saying is trading seventeen times this is an inch maybe now's the time to craft corner gotten me thinking like that ... the sporting goods chain we ... think that the that that growth can continue or just a matter of the stock and too expensive ... it's a bit of others one of one of David's concerns also visited ... the sales numbers recently but some of the Caribbean gun is buying guns and ammunition learn about new rules coming in and ... that may not be sustainable


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The following was written by Lizzi Hollanders in response to a question about where to find information on evidence of the dangers of vaccines. It's such good information that I am putting it here for all of us for future reference:
I encourage people to conduct your own research and not base choices on other people's opinions. There is a great deal of information and misinformation out there. If people want to have an opinion on the vaccination dialogue then please back up statements with facts and citations to reliable and valid sources. Spreading fear and anxiety only magnifies the anxiety and does not create a supportive environment in which to really assess the facts and make a choice based on what is best suited to you and your family.
As for ourselves this is how we came to our decision and I offer it as an example of how to make an informed choice, but in no way suggest it is the "right" or the "only" choice.
After extensive research we have decided that there is no rational basis upon which to vaccinate. the entire premise of vaccinations is deeply flawed, the risks far outweigh the benefits and the dearth of reliable, valid and consistent scientific data in tandem with the incredible profiteering conducted by the Pharmaceutical corporations makes the entire vaccine industry (and it is an industry as it it the greatest source of profit to these companies http://centerforvaccineethicsandpolicy.wordpress.com/2010/01/17/global-vaccines-revenues-projected-to-more-than-double-by-2016/) deeply suspect and guilty of extreme skulduggery.
A robust immune system can handle almost all disease and process it so that the body recovers and the results in life long immunity—far superior to potential partial immunity and/or destroyed immunity which wanes over time in tandem with the endless negative sequalae of auto-immune disorders that can result from the over injection of toxins into children's bodies.
Below are some links i find helpful in helping me elucidate the facts as they pertain to vaccination. the fact is this is a very heated debate filled with extreme ideological differences such that i believe it is often an unbridgeable divide and thus not worth engaging. it is simply up to each individual to make a choice, to use informed consent and exorcise fear from the decision making process. any choice made in fear will result in doubt and uncertainty. the only path through this mire is to gain, gather and process knowledge. information is power and that is how this battle is being waged.. i have spent the better part of three years researching the tropic and for me I am satisfied, based on the current condition of our life, where we live and our health that any benefits from vaccinations do not outweigh the risks.
here are some links to resource I have found most helpful. First though a book called "Childhood Vaccination: Answers to your questions, by Katia Bailetti" was an excellent resource to starting out on this journey of becoming informed and getting out of the dogma and ideology. the books break down each vaccine, it's ingredient, the pros and the cons of having the disease, the pros and the cons of getting vaccinated and the degree of partial immunity and the time it lasts. it is well worth the read, it is neutral in its standpoint and accessible in that it is written in average english – not academic.
anyway, here are links i find great.
here is a link that gives a graphic of the increase of vaccines introduced to the vaccine schedule from 1983 to 2010 – it makes me shudder when i look at it. Canada follows an almost identical schedule. http://img641.imageshack.us/img641/7033/vaccinek.jpg
Here is a link to a table that shows a variety of vaccine schedules around the world http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3170075/table/table2-0960327111407644/
This is a great one for people who want to engage with pro-vax people. http://www.thehealthyhomeeconomist.com/2010/01/if-you-are-in-support-of-vaccinations/
Here is a link of a parent who says these questions need to be answered before she will even consider vaccinating her children. http://lifeonthefrancofarm.blogspot.com/2011/06/6-points-i-would-have-to-believe-before.html
here is a link to an interview given by an ex-vaccine developer who discusses the series of deceptions used by Pharamceutical companies to sell vaccines to the public http://healthimpactnews.com/2011/ex-vaccine-developer-reveals-lies-the-vaccine-industry-is-built-upon-in-interview/
here are some links on the Hep B vaccine. it's one i consider one of the nmost dangerous and insane of all vaccines http://www.neurology.org/content/72/10/873.abstract
And this is a fantastic article that explains how the human immune system works prior to vaccination and what happens to the immune system after vaccination… a must read for anyone http://www.vaccinationcouncil.org/2011/06/10/basics-of-the-human-immune-system-prior-to-introduction-of-vaccines-are-vaccines-turning-our-children%E2%80%99s-immune-systems-inside-out/
and this article recently came out which i think is fantastic – discusses why children don't regress before age of 1 and examines how vaccination toxicity impacts the immune system http://www.vaccinationnews.com/20110110AutisticRegressionYazbakFE
as for the whole whooping cough thing. First of all, as was seen in California, 1 in 3 people had been fully vaccinated for whooping cough but caught it anyway… this is a severe vaccine failure, plus when considering the serious risks associated with the vaccine the cons completely outweigh any pros http://www.nafwa.org/general-nutrition/alternative-nutrition/29005-whats-really-to-blame-for-californias-whooping-cough-epidemic.html
here is a link to a resource examining the connection between SIDS and the whooping cough vaccine http://www.vaccinationnews.com/sids-vaccines-and-vaers-follow
and here is a link to some information examinig the connection between whooping cough vaccine and childhood allergies like asthma, eczema, hay fever…etc http://www.whale.to/v/asthma3.html & http://vran.org/about-vaccines/specific-vaccines/diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis-hib-vaccine/whooping-cough-the-disease-and-the-vaccine/
Here is another article that helps tease apart the myth that vaccination equals immunity
And for those who really want to get into the nitty gritty here is a link of all the vaccines currently manufactured and their ingredients. It's a worth a read and educating yourself about what exactly is being injected into your and your children's bodies. http://www.novaccine.com/vaccine-ingredients/
Finally along with the known neurotoxic effect of mercury is an even more deadlier adjuvant agent. Aluminum.
Aluminum is a positively charged bio-conductive element, 64 times more positive than colloidal blood products (ie. anything suspended in your blood) are negative; with the properties of a coagulant. It literally draws in all other metals & toxins in its path. When injected into deep muscle tissue or subcutaneously, this neurotoxin gets redistributed via the bloodstream (consisting of 90% water) to areas of fatty tissue (highly electrical tissues – negatively charged) throughout the body, builds up over time in these delicate centers; primarily in the Brain, Spinal cord, Myelin sheath, Meninges, cardiac cells, breasts & ovaries (in women), prostate (in men), kidneys, liver, gut & bowels.
This "sludging" is activated when Aluminum interacts with Hemoglobin in flow, in the negatively charged environment. This causes the negatively charged blood products to "attract" towards the larger, more massive positively charged Aluminum, causing clumping or "sludging". This restricts blood flow, and it changes the Zeta Potential to change from -15mv (minus 15 milivolts) towards -10 mv (minus 10 milivolts), or possibly closer to zero. This is an increase in Zeta Potential, from a negatively charge towards neutral. (This is somewhat analogous to a change in state of water as it turns to ice – it's a change in viscosity, affecting blood flow).
I sincerely hope this helps. I make no bones about the fact that I advocate for non-vaccination because I have come to know that vaccines are mostly bunk science riding on the coattails of some good science, and disseminating it's veracity through a heavily indoctrinated culture of blind faith in public health policy and pharmaceutical companies… and that is why it is such a difficult terrain to navigate… when lies disguise themselves behind truth, it take a sharp mind and a clear heart to see the way through. good luck to everyone in making the choice that is right for you and your family.


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Lesson 8
August 12 - 18
Approaches to Witnessing
A NEWLY BAPTIZED MEMBER was in the habit of bombarding each of his friends all in one session with his new-found beliefs about the Sabbath, unclean meats, and the importance of paying tithe! It wasn't long before most of them began avoiding him as much as they could. It is true that when we have good news we are excited and want to tell everyone everything. But how effective e is such an approach when it comes to witnessing for Christ?
Soul winning is a science. And if teachers, plumbers, doctors, mechanics, etc. train for their profession, why shouldn't we, whom God calls to witness for Him?
The objective of a Christian witness is to lead a nonbeliever to accept Jesus and His truth. Effective evangelism, therefore, should include a careful process that will lead the nonbeliever through progressive decisions to the acceptance of the whole truth. This week's lesson presents such a process. As you study, compare or contrast that process to how you presently witness. What are you doing correctly? What things should you change?
I. First Things First (Acts 18:5; 1 Cor. 2:2).
II. Appeals and Invitations (Acts 2:38; 3:19).
III. Progressive Decisions (Acts 16:30, 31; 22:16).
IV. Confessions of Faith (Acts 8:37; Matt. 10:32, 33; Rom. 10:9).
V. Baptism (Acts 2:38; Mark 16:15, 16).
MEMORY TEXT: "For I have not shunned d to declare unto all the counsel of God" (Acts 20: 27).
What was the content of Paul's witnessing in Corinth? Acts 18:5; 1 Cor. 2:2.
Leading people to Jesus Christ should be our first concern. Securing a decision for Jesus will assist the presentation of all other biblical doctrines and will help the person realize that Christ is the center of all of them. "If those who today are teaching the word of God, would uplift the cross of Christ higher and still higher, their ministry would be far more successful. If sinners can be led to give one earnest look at the cross, . . . they will realize the depth of God's compassion and the sinfulness of sin."The Acts of the Apostles, p. 209.
The witness who presents a personal testimony to a nonbeliever should not focus on doctrinal matters such as the Sabbath or stewardship. A personal testimony should transmit the joy found in accepting the salvation offered through Jesus.
Likewise, people who do evangelism should secure a decision to accept Jesus as Savior before teaching doctrines. Once this is done, they can begin to teach the whole truth. In Matthew 28:20, Jesus instructed His followers to make disciples by teaching people "to observe all things" He had commanded them. But even so, such teaching should be done in a logical sequence.
How did Paul express his confidence that he had done what he should? Acts 20:27.
Anyone using any one of the tools of evangelism we studied last week "must not feel that the whole truth is to be spoken to unbelievers on any and every occasion. He should study carefully when to speak, what to say, and what to leave unsaid. This is not practicing deception; it is working as Paul worked. 'Though I be free from all men,' he wrote to the Corinthians, 'yet have I made myself servant unto all, that I might gain the more [1 Cor. 9:19-22].' "Gospel Workers, p. 117.
"Much careful thought and fervent prayer are required to know how to approach men and women upon the great subject of truth."Testimonies for the Church, vol. 4, p. 67. Are you acquainted with someone who needs to know Jesus? Pray that God will give you an opportunity to introduce Him to that person this week. Also pray for wisdom (James 1:5), boldness (Acts 4:29), and power (Acts 1:8) when witnessing to her or him.
|DEFINITION: Appeals invite listeners to use their will to make a decision based on what they already know about the gospel. The most important decision sinners can make is to accept Jesus as Savior. All other decisions depend on this one.
Analyze below the appeal Peter made in Acts 2:38. (Compare Acts 3:19.)
What did he ask the people to do? _____________________________________________________________
Why were they to do as Peter instructed? _____________________________________________________________
What would they receive as a result? _____________________________________________________________
Why are these three elements essential in an appeal? _____________________________________________________________
We are all "ambassadors for Christ" and, as such, we are to appeal to others for a decision "as though God were pleading" through us (2 Cor. 5:20, NKJV). It is a solemn thing to realize that a person's answer to an appeal has eternal consequences. How important, then, to make an appeal correctly.
Most evangelists know that very few people will make a decision unless they are asked to do so. This is why "in every discourse fervent appeals should be made to the people to forsake their sins and turn to Christ."Testimonies for the Church, vol. 4, p. 396.
Is it difficult for you to make appeals? If so, how might the following appeals direct from the Bible, help you? Deut. 30:19; Isa. 1:18; 55:6, 7; Matt. 7:13, 14; 16:24; Acts 16:30, 31; 22:16.
What appeal did Ananias make to Saul? Acts 22:16.
The key to helping people decide for baptism is to help them make progressive decisions. Make an appeal at the end of every Bible study and sermon. If the person or people respond positively every night, then responding for baptism will be easier. If you make no invitations during the series, the appeal for baptism or an altar call at the end will be a surprise, and many will not respond.
The following are some basic guidelines.
1. Lead the people to decide for Christ before presenting doctrines. Soften the person's heart first by presenting the cross. "More people than we think are longing to find the way to Christ. Those who preach the last message of mercy should bear in mind that Christ is to be exalted as the sinner's refuge.... [M]any people are sadly ignorant in regard to the plan of salvation; they need more instruction upon this all-important subject than upon any other.... Christ and Him crucified" is "the foundation of the gospel."Gospel Workers, p. 158.
2. Do not present doctrines until you are reasonably sure that the person desires to follow Jesus. "When they surrender heart and mind and will to God, they are then prepared candidly to weigh evidence in regard to these solemn, testing truths."Evangelism, p. 485.
3. When the people understand the truth, urge them to decide to obey it with the Lord's help. "Bring the people to the point to decide. Show them the importance of the truth-it is life or death."Testimonies for the Church, vol. l, p. 152.
For what decision did Paul and Silas appeal to the Philippian jailer? Acts 16:30, 31.
"As the meeting progresses the appeals should include not only accepting Christ but also following Him in loving obedience. When a person makes a decision of this nature it will generally indicate a willingness to accept all of the truths they have learned in the meeting. Specific calls to keep the Sabbath and to join the true church will not often be necessary. To accept Christ is to accept what Christ taught and what Christ is doing, which is the primary focus of all the prophetic teachings of Scriptures and all the doctrines found in the Bible."John W. Fowler, Evangelism 2000: Proclaiming Christ in the 21st Century (Nampa, Idaho: Pacific Press, 1994), p. 55.
|How does Proverbs 4:18 apply to making "progressive decisions"?
|DEFINITION: A confession of faith is a statement of faith in Jesus. Even though an oral confession is not necessary for baptism, a public testimony always affirms a private decision. Therefore, it is also useful in evangelism.
Use different versions of the Bible to study Acts 8:37. What did the eunuch confess before being baptized?
Not all versions include verse 37, because some manuscripts of the Bible do not have it. It should be noted, however, that the Bible expresses this truth elsewhere. In Matthew 10:32, 33 Jesus says, "Whoever confesses Me before men, him I will also confess before My Father who is in heaven" (NKJV). Paul added: "If you confess with your mouth the Lord Jesus and believe in your heart that God has raised Him from the dead, you will be saved" (Rom. 10:9, NKJV).
What reason for witnessing and sharing your testimony does Revelation 12:11 give?
The following is an idea for preachers, Sabbath School teachers, Bible instructors, lay evangelists, pastors, and all others doing evangelism. After presenting salvation and forgiveness, ask for various individuals to express a short confession of faith. Ask them to use the name of Jesus, because "whosoever shall call upon the name of the Lord shall be saved" (Rom. 10:13) and because "there is no other name under heaven given among men by which we must be saved" (Acts 4:12, NKJV).
The following list offers examples of short confessions of faith:
1. "Jesus is my Savior."
2. "I accept Jesus as my personal Savior."
3. "Jesus is the king of my heart."
4. "I want to follow Jesus."
5. "I give my heart to Jesus."
6. "I renew my commitment to Jesus."
Assure your hearers that heaven rejoices when someone confesses Jesus; that those who believe in the name of the Lord have "the right to become children of God" (John 1:12, NKJV); and that those "who believe in the name of the Son of God... have eternal life" (1 John 5:13, NKJV).
|Write your own confession of faith.
Review Acts 8:36-38; 16:29-33; and 22:6-16.
After Philip preached Jesus to the Ethiopian ruler, the ruler requested baptism. Philip baptized him immediately, thus illustrating that no one who believes in Jesus Christ is to be excluded from the people of God.
Another dramatic baptism is that of the first Christian baptism in Europe. The Philippian jailer must have come from a heathen background. However, he was baptized somewhere between midnight and sunrise, the same night of his conversion. Notice, though, that he was not baptized immediately after accepting the invitation to "believe on the Lord Jesus Christ" (Acts 16:31) but after the apostles "spake unto him the word of the Lord, and to all that were in his house" (v. 32).
Ananias asked Saul a question that soul winners know very well:
"And now why are you waiting? Arise and be baptized, and wash away your sins, calling on the name of the Lord" (Acts 22:16, NKJV). The man who later would be known as "the apostle Paul" did not eat or drink from the time he met Jesus until the time he was baptized (Acts 9:18, 19).
What requirements for baptism does the book of Acts mention? Acts 2:38 (compare Mark 16:16).
To repent means literally " 'to think differently after,' hence, 'to change one's mind,' 'to change one's purpose.' It includes far more than confession of sin. . . . Theologically the word includes not only a change of mind but a new direction of the will, an altered purpose and attitude."SDA Bible Commentary, vol. 5, p. 295.
Based on the following texts, what does baptism symbolize?
Rom. 6:3-5 ___________________________________________________
Col. 2:11, 12 _________________________________________________
Titus 3:5-7 ___________________________________________________
|Consider this symbolism in relationship to your own life.
FURTHER STUDY: Read Luke 9:18-20; 22:54-62; and John 21:15-17. Compare Peter's first confession of Christ with his second confession. Was Peter serious about his first confession? Explain your answer. Why was his second confession necessary? What does Peter's story tell us about the seriousness of confessing Christ before others?
Read any or all of the following chapters or sections from Evangelism: "Christ the Center of the Message" pp. 184-193; "Appeals and Altar Calls" pp. 283-285; "Methods of Clinching Decisions" pp. 295-301; "Establishing and Holding New Converts" pp. 334-383.
"Do not at the outset press before the people the most objectionable features of our faith, lest you close their ears to which these things come as a new revelation."Evangelism, p. 201.
SUMMARIZE in your own words the concept of "progressive decisions." Why is this concept so important? Based on what you have learned about this concept, what will you do differently in presenting the gospel to family members and friends who are not Christians?
Samithy needed help-fast. A Global Mission pioneer in Cambodia, he had prepared 42 people for baptism and needed a pastor to come and baptize them. But it was too dangerous for outsiders to travel the roads around Samrong, where Samithy lived. Many unwary travelers had been killed by bandits or renegade soldiers. In addition, it was the height of the rainy season, and the road was often flooded, making travel nearly impossible.
But the urgent plea for help came after Samithy encountered a number of orphans as he visited people. Three young children told him that their father was killed by soldiers and their mother had just died of malaria. They had no one care for them. Samithy located 20 orphans in all who desperately needed care. The children had nothing to eat or to wear. With no other alternative, he took them home until he could find help for them.
Samithy notified the mission of the urgent need, and the mission director arranged to charter a small plane and fly to Samrong with representatives of an international relief group. But the rains intensified, washing out bridges, flooding the dirt airstrip, and leaving doubt whether anyone could get to Samrong. Samithy did the only thing he could do: he prayed, asking God to work it out. Then he notified his baptismal candidates to meet at the river at the specified time.
Two days before the plane was to arrive, the rain stopped, and a strong north wind began to blow, drying out the dirt airstrip. Occasionally, threatening storm clouds gathered, but it did not rain. Samithy notified the pastor that the airstrip was dry enough to land.
The pastor and relief workers endured a 13-hour trip across nearly impassable roads and through rivers to reach the nearest airport some 40 miles away. They boarded the small airplane and flew through blue skies to Samrong. The pilot examined the airstrip to be sure it was dry enough to land, then he set the plane down. Friendly soldiers quickly surrounded the plane to protect it as Samithy greeted his guests. He hurried them to the river for the baptism then took the relief workers to survey the needs of the orphans and arrange for their care.
Their work done, the group boarded the airplane and soon disappeared into the distance. Less than an hour after the plane had taken off, the rain had returned, flooding the dirt airstrip.
Khut Chouen works in the Cambodian Mission.
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Cano, Wells Power Yankees to Win Over Royals
KANSAS CITY (AP) - After enduring the embarrassment of failing to go deep in the Home Run Derby, and the near-constant jeering from fans of the Kansas City Royals, Robinson Cano finally hit one into the seats at Kauffman Stadium on Sunday.
It proved to be important, too.
The two-run shot by the Yankees second baseman gave his team the lead in the third inning, and that was just about all the offense Hiroki Kuroda needed on the mound. He pitched into the eighth inning as New York beat Kansas City 4-2 to finish off a three-game sweep.
"This ballpark is big," Cano said. "I mean, this is a tough place to hit home runs."
Cano, of course, was captain of the AL squad for last year's derby in Kansas City, and had said he would choose the Royals' Billy Butler for his team. But he went back on his word, and was booed lustily by the home crowd while failing to hit a single home run himself.
The jeers continued during the All-Star game, and didn't let up when the Yankees returned to town for their only visit this season - at least, until Cano finally went deep.
"He's just a really good hitter," Yankees manager Joe Girardi said. "That's probably the best way to say it. He's just a really good hitter."
Lest he need any advice on going deep in Kansas City, he might try asking Vernon Wells.
The Yankees outfielder homered for the second straight game on Sunday, helping to pace a New York offense that scored just enough for Kuroda (5-2) to win for the fifth time in six decisions.
He allowed only a sacrifice fly by the Royals' Alex Gordon and an RBI groundout by Alcides Escobar over 7 2-3 innings. The right-hander at one point went 15 batters without allowing a hit, and was so fired up that he argued with plate umpire Laz Diaz over a call in the eighth inning.
"I guess it was the heat of the moment," Kuroda said through a translator, without relaying exactly what he said to Diaz. "I was fired up. It's not something I would normally do."
David Robertson retired Billy Butler to end the Royals' eighth-inning rally, and Mariano Rivera worked around a leadoff single in the ninth to remain perfect in 15 save opportunities.
Rivera has converted his last 29 chances against the Royals dating to Aug. 18, 1998, his longest active streak against any team. His only other blown save against them happened in 1996.
"It's amazing. He just continues to do it," Girardi said. "Anyone who wants to argue he's not the greatest closer of all time, I don't know who it is."
Ervin Santana (3-2) gave up Cano's two-run shot in the third inning, Wells' solo homer two pitches later and an RBI single by Wells in the fifth. He departed with one out in the sixth and with the Royals well on their way to their sixth loss in their last seven games.
"I didn't have my best stuff today, but I just tried to keep my team in the ballgame," he said. "Just a couple of pitches. That's how it is against the Yankees."
Santana, who hadn't lost since his season debut April 3 at the White Sox, began his career 5-1 against the boys in pinstripes. He's now 0-6 in his last nine starts against them.
The Royals struck first when Jarrod Dyson doubled leading off the game. He advanced to third on a bunt by Escobar and then scored on Gordon's sacrifice fly.
That was all they'd get off Kuroda until the eighth inning.
New York pulled ahead in the third when Chris Stewart singled and Cano pounded the first pitch he saw over the bullpen in right field. It was his sixth career homer off Santana, two more than the All-Star second baseman has had against any other pitcher.
It was especially gratifying given his history at the K.
Cano was the captain of the AL squad for last year's Home Run Derby in Kansas City, and had said he would choose Butler for his team. But he went back on his word, and was booed lustily by the Royals' home crowd while failing to hit a single home run himself.
The jeers continued during the All-Star game, and didn't let up when the Yankees returned to town for their only visit this season - at least, until Cano finally went deep.
Wells, who hit the go-ahead two-run homer on Saturday, followed with a solo shot, and then drove in Brett Gardner with a single down the third-base line in the fifth inning.
That was enough to ensure the Royals would be swept for the first time this season.
"I don't know the reasoning behind it," Royals manager Ned Yost said, "but you're just one hit away from opening up the flood gates. Sometimes that one hit in a crucial situation just relaxes everybody and all of a sudden you go on an offensive tear for a weak or 10 days. So we just wait for that to happen."
NOTES: The Yankees put INF Eduardo Nunez on the 15-day DL, selected SS Alberto Gonzalez from Triple-A Scranton-Wilkes Barre and put 1B Mark Teixeira on the 60-day DL. ... Royals GM Dayton Moore and Hall of Famer George Brett honored Rivera prior to the game with a donation to the church where his wife, Clara, is the pastor. Rivera intends to retire after the season. ... RHP Luis Mendoza will start Monday for the Royals at the Angels. The Yankees head to Cleveland for a doubleheader with RHP David Phelps on the mound in Game 1 and LHP Vidal Nuno starting Game 2.