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Random guy who works for TFL( the short tee shirt is the give away here) sort of ambles back into the rear of the bus in which I'm sitting. He asks me if I am single. He asks if I am seeing anyone. I lie and say yes because I am not attracted to him but I really don't wish to hurt his self- esteem. He inquires if I live with the guy or should I live. This creeps me out so I begin to get out my phone so I can dial to get emergency services if necessary. I have a fantastic day and say thanks. He asks me to call him if I ever want to go out for a coffee and offers me his number.
Cases of statement of compassion: " I know that is weird but. . . " " I know this may be embarrassing but. . . " " I know this is odd but. . . " " Do not worry I'm not a creep. . . " " I guarantee I'm not a Brown MB casual sex? cast" I learnt this technique through a few of the best dating coaches I know, RSDMax.
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This scam cannot last forever. Mistakes will be made. He forgets to put his cell phone while he is in the restroom it rings, and it is answered by his wife. Both the girlfriend and the wife may wish to know who" other woman" was.
The majority of the women you talk to or go out with, won't be in any way within a year in your life. The turnover rate with is way too high, to get too emotionally invested in this thing. Yes, you will have some dates which you hit if off with date and one her long- term, but the majority won't get to there.
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Always purchasing her things really, and paying for a woman on dates reduces your chances of succeeding with her long- term and short. It sets you up as beinga'Provider'! And there are lots of reasons for this which you want to get your mind around.
Onceyou're recovery from abuse grounding yourself is also important. They reside in a land of dream, and it's probable that you have been attracted into this planet. Your thought patterns might not be totally rational, and your sense of reality is very likely to be skewed from the experience that you have had with the narcissist.
Decide on There does have to be a individual that was appropriate and wrong because a fight or an argument can draw out. So, if it appears that it's drawn out so long without a forthcoming solution then set a ground and you both have to come back in your high horses. For instance in the event of these calls, you could opt to send if you don't pick your calls they do not stress. They subsequently can request a time when you will be less busy in order that they can predict. And like this, everything is well in the domain again.
You need to: Be aware that if you are ignored by her she would like to marry you? Seriously, avoid women who talk nonstop about rubbish, but if she fails to have a conversation, cut her loose.
Before you can adopt the individual values and principles of a woman eliciting her values and principles, you have to understand them. How do you evoke the lady's principles and values? By asking them. Keep in mind you need to make her comfortable with you. You can do so by performing the attachment methods I have mentioned above.
Before arranging any contact or any off- site communication some of the dating sites require that the recipient and sender( equally) of the messages should be subscribers, and will even filter out the messages to exclude the phone numbers, email addresses, surnames and internet addresses. Subscribers who attempt to bypass these limitations may get limited from the website and may also lose their membership.
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People finally get sick of waiting, somebody is given the opportunity, and with the craft of commitment they become soul mates, who need a life to perfect them. " - Criss Jami, Venus in Hookers at the pointe How to write a successful profile for a dating site Starting in the consequences of a scientific research conducted on profiles, a list of errors as well as the handbook to ensure success in dating.
Stopping a woman, for any range of motives, is not too hard to perform. Muslim dating apps The Points West Bay NS any kind of question may do the trick. However, in utilizing this process the brilliance is that from here you can literally do a thousand other things, taking the discussion in whatever direction you'd like. This is why so many guys prefer this approach. It has low risk is simple to accomplish, and contains an unlimited number of instructions you may head into following the first minute or so.
Soldier Scam The scammer assume their identity online and will swipe at an backpage escorts Cliffside of a soldier from a web site or social networking website and in their correspondence. They ask you for money to buy exceptional newspapers they state are expected to return stateside or communicate with family. They might also ask for backpage escorts for a plane ticket home once they've secured their" official" documents.
Weighing the advantages and Liabilities One of the attributes of dating is thatyou're not confined to your borders if you don't would like to be. Your options have expanded exponentially. It is backpage escorts scam Hebron NS to literally search the world for someone with similar interests and likes. You're no longer restricted to a circle. You can meet with individuals; upping your probability of finding romantic relationship, that date or traveling companion.
And so, I will say it again, what could MAW's be doing with their time? It is a trap designed to lock them into a lifestyle that harms their chances in achieving happiness that is attainable and real. Does this not say something about MAW psychology, when MAW's return from their escapist dream, anxious and wishing that they were anywhere else but home? The tug of war energetic supporting this tension- relief dyad is a endless and treacherous cycle which does not lead to anything constructive. In reality, what you get will be rather the opposite. I am reminded of this old hippie saying, " Wherever you go, there you are. " Modifying your environment will not solve the problems of life, and it never will. So, my advice to MAW's is as follows: Do something which matters. Invest in yourself. Learn to play with that guitar. Or find out how to do your own taxes. Enrich yourself that dating, and meeting people is about something more than finding newer and more exotic ways to dating apps for relationsgips Brown time and resent each other.
" So, " Santa said. " What do you want for Christmas, casual sex affairs Brown woman? " " Um, " I stared at his necklace. " I like your. . . jacket? " " Well, I'm sure I can have the elves create up one for you. " After we'd had our photograph taken, said Paul and the ordeal was over. " I was doing a escorts backpage Brown job of best of backpage escorts Brown up him than you. " " Let's just pick up the lame photos and go home" Note: because it turns out that I have a case of appendicitis This story does not have a proper ending. It feels as though I have toxin for blood. I guess after all and a fucked appendix is exactly what I got, I was good this season. Moan into my pillow, roll back into lawton oklahoma hookers Brown and I'm going to leave this today. You win this round you dick.
God's getting ready to sit backpage escorts snapchat Brown with you and say, " What are you reading? Are you really reading something lewd? You can not read this. Yes, I gave you a penis or a vagina, but that I didn't Brown MB eliot spitzer prostitutes you to enjoy using it. I want you multiply and to breed, but with all the lights off in position. Oh, and definitely do not have fun doing it" Fuck buddy anal public Brown MB this old phrase, " Do not play it or you will go blind. " I have yet to find a horde of blind people blaming self pleasure for their handicap, but I suppose it could be possible. I do my very best to figure out what's wrong with those images and will go into man mode. Yes, I've been around a lot of girls. I have experienced relationship more than my share, and my personal Shades of Grey. Yes, I've been on Santa's naughty list more than once. Am I proud of it? No. Definitely not.
Head activation mantras Let's discuss a couple of mantras that it is possible to start to recite that will help you to help yourself trigger the mind. Why trigger the mind? It's because your head is where the magic is set to excite you into this way of thinking, and also to discover your soul mate. That term sparked, does this scare you? Aroused. And I am not simply talking sexually, but I am talking about a level of spirituality that is linked to sensitivity intimacy, and that equilibrium of the Masculine and Feminine. We all have that indoors that is characteristic.
Friendships and household relationships where you experience credibility and allegiance are the ones that feel most loving. Do not settle for anything less than this as a baseline to your spouse. Remember Mediocrity's Casual sex statistics increase Brown MB Hole: do not live there.

subset: commoncrawl


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Re: Coloring the whole channel strip in the mix console
Posted: Sat Apr 01, 2017 11:20 pm
Here are some mock ups I've made earlier (for Cubase 9, lol).
Or just move the labels higher
Or just move the labels higher
I too enjoy blocking my labels and names and losing navigation to Transport Panel.Raphie wrote:All 3 look awfull compared to what it is now.
It's a matter of taste. There are DAWs in which it is implemented that way, so there are many users who want to have a possibility to find or recognize channels in easier way, using colors.Raphie wrote:The full screen colors are just a plain eyesore.


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Maharashtra IPS officer quits over 'communal, unconstitutional' CAB
A Special Inspector General of Police (IGP) in Mumbai resigned from his position against the Citizenship (Amendment) Bill 2019. "Citizenship (Amendment) Bill 2019 is against the spirit of Constitution. As Civil Disobedience Movement, I have decided to not attend office. Either my application for VRS should be accepted or my letter should be accepted as my letter of resignation," said Abdur Rahman while speaking to ANI. The Bill was passed in both of the Houses in the Parliament.


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Kanye West Vs. Fame
We Had an iPhone's Predictive Text Review Kanye West's Albums
Because honestly, who cares enough to write about him anymore?
Kanye West Has Kinda Announced A New Album Called… 'YANDHI'
It'll be out at the end of this month, probably. Honestly, it's hard to tell whether he's trolling or if this will actually be the third Kanye West record of 2018.
Kanye West Finally Answers That Trump Question
In a new interview, the Chicago rapper responds to Jimmy Kimmel's question about whether he thinks Donald Trump cares about black people.
Kanye West Brings His Galaxy Brain to 'Kimmel' for a Troubling Interview
Kimmel briefly challenged West on his pro-Trump comments, but the rapper mostly hit all of his old marks.
Acid On Me Like the Rain: Mapping Psychedelia's Big Pop Culture Moment
Frank Ocean, Kacey Musgraves and Kanye's tripped-out experiences suggest hallucinogens are infiltrating an anxious generation as the Xanax era ends.
Kanye West Still Thinks the TMZ Interview Was "Beautiful"
In a lengthy New York Times piece, published this morning, West is candid about his mental health, his writing process, and last month's infamous TMZ studio appearance.
Five Years Later, 'Yeezus' Feels Like Kanye West Made a Deal with the Devil
Kanye's antagonistic sixth studio album pushed hip-hop in bold new directions but began his descent into contrarian shock tactics.
Kanye West Had a Nice Time on 'Celebrity Family Feud'
The Team West vs. Team Kardashian episode aired last night, but was filmed back in February, before the latest West-driven news cycle started whirring.
Kanye West and Kid Cudi Have Revealed the Cover of Their New Album
The 'Kids See Ghosts' album is out this Friday (!!) only a week after Kanye's new album 'Ye'.
J. Prince Says Drake's Response to PUSHA-T Would've Damaged Careers
The Houston record executive is still standing by the fact that another Drake response exists.
Kanye's iPhone Album Art and the Rise of 'Good Enough' Media
The album art for Kanye West's 'ye' was shot and edited on an iPhone, just like tons of other media that millions of people love.


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DJKAYOTIK.com —–> NEW VIDEO: JHENE AIKO FT. H.E.R. "B.S."
Jhene Aiko is back on her bullshit in her Chilombo's new video featuring H.E.R.
In the animated clip, the two R&B singers ride through Hawaii where they vent on their toxic relationships. They park by the mountain side, cruise through the exotic island, and rest on top of an erupting volcano on a stormy night.
The visual follows the preceding visuals "Lotus" and last week's "Magic Hour". Jhené Aiko's Chilombo (Deluxe) drops later this month.


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Hydraulic Fluid
- Recommended Fluid is LHM or LHM+
- In North America a suitable substitute is Lubriplate Minus 70 hydraulic oil, which has nearly identical fluid properties. A comparison of various alternative hydraulic fluids is shown for comparison. (Data compiled by Tony Jackson and Mark Bardenwerper, with contributions by John Titus and Steve Hammond.)


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Gene order on the short arm of human chromosome 11: regional assignment of the LDH A gene distal to catalase in two translocations.
Journal Article
Leukemic cells with reciprocal translocations involving 11p13 and 14q13 were obtained from two patients with T-cell acute lymphoblastic leukemia and fused with mouse Ltk- cells. DNA from independent hybrid clones was screened by Southern blot and hybridization to molecular probes for the human catalase and Ha-ras-1 genes. Several clones showed segregation of these two genes, indicating the presence of either the der11 or der14 human chromosomes. When DNA from these hybrid clones was examined for the presence of the human genes for calcitonin and gamma-globin, both genes were found to segregate with the Ha-ras-1 gene and the der14 chromosome indicating that they lie distal to catalase. When the hybrid clones were examined for the presence of human lactate dehydrogenase A (LDH A) activity, only those clones containing the der14 chromosome expressed activity indicating that the LDH A gene is also distal to catalase on the short arm of chromosome 11.
Full Text
Cited Authors
- Lewis, WH; Goguen, JM; Powers, VE; Willard, HF; Michalopoulos, EE
Published Date
- January 1, 1985
Published In
Volume / Issue
- 71 / 3
Start / End Page
- 249 - 253
PubMed ID
- 3877676
Pubmed Central ID
- 3877676
Electronic International Standard Serial Number (EISSN)
- 1432-1203
International Standard Serial Number (ISSN)
- 0340-6717
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
- 10.1007/bf00284584
- eng


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Cat food in a variety of formats, such as wet, dry and canned, will let you know the amount of cat food that your pet eats daily. By learning the nutritional value of these types of food you can ensure your feline friend is getting all the vitamins, minerals and nutrients necessary to keep him healthy.
Here are some cat-care tips to help you with this important task. It is imperative that you understand that nutrition is very important to both you and your cat. The better educated you are about your pet, the more informed you will be when it comes to feeding him or her well.
Cats are naturally diabetics, so they have a difficult time absorbing carbohydrates. They need the right diet to meet their nutritional needs. Make sure that when you buy food for your cat, you research the ingredients so you can get the most nutritional food possible. Canned food is readily available at most pet stores but if you prefer to prepare your own cat food, here are some tips for feeding your feline friend with the right diet.
First, it is important to consider that cat food should be cooked at high temperatures. Boiling and microwave cooking are the two most common methods used in preparing cat food, but they are both poor sources of protein and vitamins A and C. The only way to prepare cat food for your cat is to remove the bones and all other starches.
Roughage: Roughage is the water and solids that remain after all the meat has been removed from the food. It is usually combined with flaked wheat germ to provide added nutrients.
The first step in cat care is to purchase a good quality canned food. You may decide to use commercial dry food, which is highly processed, but you should check the ingredients to make sure that the manufacturers have followed the recommended guidelines. It is best to avoid commercially packaged dry cat food and use homemade cat food as this can be both healthier and more cost-effective.
Cats are omnivores. They will eat whatever they find appealing. Cats also need to drink plenty of water so it is important to have clean water available for them at all times.
Do not use any kind of chemical on your kitty litter tray. This includes those marketed under the name of B-B-Q or Posh Pooch. A crumb tray is commonplace for many cats to hide, so we recommend removing it from the environment, once your cat begins eating canned food.
For cat care tips, we recommend mixing some finely ground grains with his drinking water to create a high fiber food. Also add some dried peas, rice, or pellets to the crumb tray and you will soon notice an improvement in his stool consistency.
Cats love to sleep in their bed, especially during the warmer summer months. We recommend providing several extra towels or pillows that are easily washed.
Cats are known to have problems with excessive scratching. Our cat care tips for his bedding include not placing paper towels anywhere near him and instead prefer pillows or mattresses to cover him.
If you're having trouble with keeping the cat's diet balanced, you may also want to consider adding a few treats to the mix. In most cases, the treats you feed your cat are going to be good treats for humans, so you won't have any problems with allergies!


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Women in the Informal Sector and Poverty Reduction in Morocco
The City of Fez as a Case Study
Souad Belhorma
It is established that the informal sector plays an important role in the creation of job opportunities for many rural and urban people. However, there is a scarcity of academic research on the relationship between gender, informality of employment and poverty reduction in Morocco with particular reference to the city of Fez. This book focuses on investigating the contribution of women's self-employed work in the informal sector in reducing household poverty in the city of Fez. This is done through the medium of specific framework objectives. First, the book sets out the types of women engaged in informal sector activities in the city of Fez. Secondly, it makes a situational analysis of the contribution of women's work in the informal sector to reduce poverty in their households in this region of Morocco. Thirdly, it identifies the linkages between working as self-employed persons and emancipation of women through their participation in political and social activism in Fez and lastly, it uncovers the main difficulties impeding the development of women in self-employed activities in the informal sector and identifies the various challenges for the development of their businesses in Fez.
Series index
Africa in Development
Series Editor: Jeggan C. Senghor
Institute of Commonwealth Studies, University of London
While African development remains a preoccupation, policy craftsmen and a multiplicity of domestic and international actors have been engaged in the quest for solutions to the myriad problems associated with poverty and underdevelopment. Academic and scholarly responses have built on traditional and non-traditional analytical frameworks and promoted a multidimensional discourse on, for example, conflict management, peace and security systems, HIV/AIDS, democratic governance, and the implications of globalization.
This series is designed to encourage innovative thinking on a broad range of development issues. Thus its remit extends to all fields of intellectual inquiry with the aim of highlighting the advantages of a synergistic interdisciplinary perspective on the challenges of and opportunities for development in the continent. Of particular interest are studies with a heavy empirical content which also have a bearing on policy debates and those that question theoretical orthodoxies while being grounded on concrete developmental concerns.
The series welcomes proposals for collected papers as well as monographs from recent PhDs no less than from established scholars.
Book proposals should be sent to email@example.com.
Volume 1 Jeggan C. Senghor: The Politics of Senegambian Integration, 1958–1994. 335 pages. 2008.
Volume 2 Finex Ndhlovu: The Politics of Language and Nation Building in Zimbabwe. 243 pages. 2009.
Volume 3 Sabelo J. Ndlovu-Gatsheni: Do 'Zimbabweans' Exist? Trajectories of Nationalism, National...
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text:
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Current refinement(s):
The implications of ignoring smallholder agriculture in climate-financed forestry projects: empirical evidence from two REDD+ pilot projects
Duker, A.E.C. ; Tadesse, T.M. ; Soentoro, T. ; Fraiture, C. de; Kemerink-Seyoum, J.S. - \ 2019
Climate Policy 19 (2019)sup1. - ISSN 1469-3062 - p. S36 - S46.
deforestation - Ethiopia - Indonesia - livelihoods - REDD+ - smallholder agriculture
Changes in agricultural practices can play a pivotal role in climate change mitigation by reducing the need for land use change as one of the biggest sources of GHG emissions, and by enabling carbon sequestration in farmers' fields. Expansion of smallholder and commercial agriculture is often one of the main driving forces behind deforestation and forest degradation. However, mitigation programmes such as REDD+ are geared towards conservation efforts in the forestry sector without prominently taking into account smallholder agricultural interests in project design and implementation. REDD+ projects often build on existing re- and afforestation projects without major changes in their principles, interests and assumptions. Informed by case study research and interviews with national and international experts, we illustrate with examples from Ethiopia and Indonesia how REDD+ projects are implemented, how they fail to adequately incorporate the demands of smallholder farmers and how this leads to a loss of livelihoods and diminishing interest in participating in REDD+ by local farming communities. The study shows how the conservation-based benefits and insecure funding base in REDD+ projects do not compensate for the contraction in livelihoods from agriculture. Combined with exclusive benefit-sharing mechanisms, this results in an increased pressure on forest resources, diverging from the principal objective of REDD+. We note a gap between the REDD+ narratives at international level (i.e. coupling development with a climate agenda) and the livelihood interests of farming communities on the ground. We argue that without incorporating agricultural interests and a review of financial incentives in the design of future climate finance mechanisms, objectives of both livelihood improvements and GHG emission reductions will be missed. Key policy insights REDD+ is positioned as a promising tool to meet climate, conservation and development targets. However, these expectations are not being met in practice as the interests of smallholder farmers are poorly addressed. REDD+ policy developers and implementers need more focus on understanding the interests and dynamics of smallholder agriculturalists to enable inclusive, realistic and long-lasting projects. For REDD+ to succeed, funders need to consider how to better ensure long-term livelihood security for farming communities.
Changes in soil organic carbon stocks after conversion from forest to oil palm plantations in Malaysian Borneo
Rahman, Niharika ; Neergaard, Andreas de; Magid, Jakob ; Ven, Gerrie W.J. van de; Giller, Ken E. ; Bruun, Thilde Bech - \ 2018
Environmental Research Letters 13 (2018)10. - ISSN 1748-9318
deforestation - land use change - oil palm - organic residue management - SOC stocks - tropics
The continuous rise in the global demand for palm oil has resulted in large-scale expansion of industrial oil palm plantations - largely at the expense of primary and secondary forests. The potentially negative environmental impacts of these conversions have given rise to closer scrutiny. However, empirical data on the effects of conversion of forests to industrial oil palm plantations on soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks is scarce and patchy. We evaluated the changes in SOC stocks after conversion of tropical forest into oil palm plantations over the first and second rotation period in Sarawak, Malaysian Borneo. Soil samples were collected from three age classes of oil palm plantations converted from forest (49, 39 and 29 years ago respectively) with three replicate sites and four adjacent primary forest sites as reference. In each site under oil palm, the three management zones, namely weeded circle (WC), frond stacks (FS), and between palm (BP), were sampled separately. All soil samples were collected from five soil layers (0-5, 5-15, 15-30, 30-50 and 50-70 cm). Samples were analysed for SOC concentration, soil bulk density, pH and soil texture. Results showed SOC stocks declined by 42%, 24% and 18% after 29, 39 and 49 years of conversion respectively. Significant differences in SOC stocks were found among different management zones in the oil palm plantations, and the trend was similar for all age classes: FS > WC > BP, demonstrating the necessity of considering within-plantation variability when assessing soil C stocks. The largest differences between SOC stocks of the reference forest and converted plantations were found in the topsoil (0-15 cm depth) but differences were also found in the subsoil (>30 cm). Our results will contribute towards future modelling and life cycle accounting to calculate the carbon debt from the conversion of forest to oil palm plantations.
Space-time monitoring of tropical forest changes using observations from multiple satellites
Hamunyela, Eliakim - \ 2017
Wageningen University. Promotor(en): M. Herold, co-promotor(en): J.P. Verbesselt. - Wageningen : Wageningen University - ISBN 9789463436403 - 188
tropical forests - monitoring - satellites - deforestation - ecological disturbance - tropische bossen - monitoring - satellieten - ontbossing - ecologische verstoring
Forests provide essential goods and services to humanity, but human-induced forest disturbances have been on ongoing at alarming rates, undermining the capacity for forests to continue providing essential goods and services. In recent years, the understanding of the short-term and long-term impacts of deforesting and degrading forest ecosystems has improved, and global efforts to reduce forest loss are ongoing. However, in many parts of the globe, significant forest areas continue to be lost. To fully protect forest ecosystems efficiently, timely, reliable and location-specific information on new forest disturbances is needed. Frequent and large-area forest mapping and monitoring using satellite observations can provide timely and cost-effective information about new forest disturbances. However, there are still key weaknesses associated with existing forest monitoring systems. For example, the capacity for forest monitoring systems to detect new disturbances accurately and timely is often limited by persistent cloud cover and strong seasonal dynamics. Persistent cloud can be addressed by using observations from multiple satellite sensors, but satellite sensors often have inter-sensor differences which make integration of observations from multiple sensors challenging. Seasonality can be accounted for using a seasonal model, but image time series are often acquired at irregular intervals, making it difficult to properly account for seasonality. Furthermore, with existing forest monitoring systems, detecting subtle, low-magnitude disturbances remains challenging, and timely detection of forest disturbances is often accompanied by many false detections. The overall objective of this thesis is to improve forest change monitoring by addressing the key challenges which hinders accurate and timely detection of forest disturbances from satellite data. In the next paragraphs, I summarise how this thesis tackled some of the key challenges which hamper effective monitoring of forest disturbances using satellite observations.
Chapter 2 addresses the challenge of seasonality by developing a spatial normalisation approach that allows us to account for seasonality in irregular image time series when monitoring forest disturbances. In this chapter, I showed that reducing seasonality in image time series using spatial normalisation leads to timely detection of forest disturbances when compared to a seasonal model approach. With spatial normalisation, near real-time forest monitoring in dry forests, which has been challenging for many years, is now possible. Applying spatial normalisation in areas where evergreen and deciduous forests co-exist is however challenging. Therefore, further research is needed to improve the spatial normalisation approach to ensure that it is applicable to areas with a combination of different forest types. In particular, a spatial normalisation approach which is forest type-specifics is desirable. In this chapter, forest disturbances were detected by analysing single pixel-time series. Spatial information was only used to reduce seasonality.
Taking in account the fact that forest disturbances are spatio-temporal events, I investigated whether there is an added-value of combining both spatial and temporal information when monitoring forest disturbances from satellite image time series. To do this, I first developed a space-time change detection method that detects forest disturbances as extreme events in satellite data cubes (Chapter 3). I showed that, by combining spatial and temporal information, forest disturbances can still be detected reliably even with limited historical observations. Therefore, unlike approaches which detect forest disturbances by analysing single pixel- time series, the space-time approach does not require huge amount of historical images to be pre-processed when monitoring forest disturbances. I then evaluated the added-value of using space-time features when confirming forest disturbances (Chapter 4). I showed that using a set of space-time features to confirm forest disturbances enhance forest monitoring significantly by reducing false detections without compromising temporal accuracy. With space-time features, the discrimination of forest disturbances from false detections is no longer based on temporal information only, hence providing opportunity to also detect low-magnitude disturbances with high confidence. Based on the analysis for conditional variable importance, I showed that features which are computed using both spatial and temporal information were the most important predictors of forest disturbances, thus enforcing the view that forest disturbances should be treated as spatio-temporal in order to improve forest change monitoring.
In Chapter 2 – 4, forest disturbances where detected from medium resolution Landsat time series. Yet, recent studies showed that small-scale forest disturbances are often omitted when using Landsat time series. In Chapter 5, I investigated whether detection of small-scale forest disturbances can be improved by using the 10m resolution time series from recently launched Sentinel-2 sensor. I also investigated whether the spatial normalisation approach developed in Chapter 2 can be used to reduce inter-sensor differences in multi-sensor optical time series. I showed that the 10m resolution Sentinel-2 time series improves the detection of small-scale forest disturbances when compared to 30m resolution. However, the 10m resolution does not supersede the importance of frequent satellite observations when monitoring forest disturbances. I also showed that spatial normalisation approach developed in Chapter 2 can reduce inter-sensor differences in multi-sensor optical time series significantly to generate temporally consistent time series suitable for forest change detection. Spatial normalisation does not completely remove inter-sensor differences, but the differences are significantly reduced.
Monitoring of forest disturbances is increasingly done using a combination of Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) and optical time series. Therefore, Chapter 6 investigated whether the spatial normalisation approach developed in Chapter 2 can also reduce seasonal variations in SAR time series to facilitate the integration of SAR-optical time series for forest monitoring in dry tropical forests. This Chapter demonstrated that seasonal variations in SAR time series can also be reduced through spatial normalisation. As a result, observations from SAR and optical time series were combined to improve near real-time forest change detection in dry tropical forest. In Chapter 7, it is demonstrated that spatial normalisation has potential to also reduce inter-sensor differences in SAR-optical time series, resulting into temporally consistent SAR-optical time series.
In conclusion, this thesis developed a space-time forest monitoring framework that addresses some key challenges affecting satellite-based forest monitoring. In particular, new methods that allow for timely and accurate detection of forest disturbances using observations from multiple satellites were developed. Overall, the methods developed in this research contribute to our capacity to accurately and timely detect forest disturbances in both dry and humid forests.
The role of forests in climate change mitigation : a discursive-institutional analysis of REDD+ MRV
Ochieng, Robert M. - \ 2017
Wageningen University. Promotor(en): B.J.M. Arts; M. Herold, co-promotor(en): I.J. Visseren-Hamakers; M. Brockhaus. - Wageningen : Wageningen University - ISBN 9789463431712 - 172
forests - climatic change - mitigation - forest monitoring - developing countries - deforestation - forestry - bossen - klimaatverandering - mitigatie - bosmonitoring - ontwikkelingslanden - ontbossing - bosbouw
Since the advent of professional forestry in the 17th century, forest monitoring has been part and parcel of forest management, and has been implemented in different forms in many European countries. The practice of forest monitoring was later exported to the European colonies, and has since been taken over and conducted by post-colonial governments in many developing countries. From an earlier focus on assessment of timber stocks, the practice has evolved to include assessments of other forest variables than timber. Despite this evolution, national forest monitoring has remained largely timber-oriented, and a closed system with little participation of actors outside the state forestry bureaucracy. However, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) decision on reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation, and the role of conservation, sustainable management of forests and enhancement of forest carbon stocks in developing countries (REDD+) has opened up new discussions on forest monitoring in developing countries. Specifically, the global discourse on monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV) of REDD+ outcomes has introduced new ideas and demands on the scope and objectives of forest monitoring, the actors to be involved, and resources to be used. Taken together, the emergence of the REDD+ MRV discourse and associated ideas calls for change in the institutional arrangements for forest monitoring in developing countries. Furthermore, while these ideas and demands are determined and agreed upon in an international negotiation process, they need to be translated and implemented in highly diverse country-specific contexts, with country-specific actors, ideas, interests, and institutions. Translating the REDD+ MRV discourse and ideas into national institutional arrangements thus involves negotiation and contestation among national stakeholders.
This dissertation examines the performance of REDD+ MRV in terms of its implementation and institutionalization in developing countries, and the political processes by which such institutionalization occurs. Specifically, it examines (1) the institutional effectiveness of REDD+ MRV; (2) how the concept of REDD+ MRV and associated ideas have materialized in new institutional arrangements for forest monitoring in developing countries; and (3) how discursive processes of policymaking and the argumentation and contestation inherent in such processes enable or constrain institutionalization. With this, the dissertation contributes to the literature on REDD+ MRV by examining forest monitoring from a social science perspective. While current research on REDD+ MRV remains highly technical, since it is assumed that forest monitoring is a neutral, apolitical activity, this study argues that monitoring deforestation is also political, and contributes by highlighting the political contestation involved in implementing REDD+ MRV at the national level. The dissertation also contributes to scientific debates on the performance of international environment agreements at the national level, and how contestation and negotiation among domestic stakeholders enable or constrain their institutionalization at the national level.
Chapter 1 introduces the research presented in this dissertation. It provides an overview of the emergence of reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation in developing countries (REDD+) within the United Nations Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) as a climate mitigation strategy, and argues that the UNFCCC's decisions on monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV) for REDD+ pose new ideas and demands for forest monitoring in developing countries. It elucidates the research that has been done on REDD+ MRV so far, identifies gaps in the existing literature on forest monitoring for REDD+, and delineates the objectives of the study. It discusses the theoretical basis and framework for the study, explaining how the main theoretical concept – discursive institutionalism – is combined with the Policy Arrangement Approach (PAA) to examine how REDD+ MRV has been shaped and institutionalized in new or reformed institutional arrangements for forest monitoring in developing countries, and discursive processes by which such institutionalization occurs. After presenting the conceptual framework, four research questions are outlined, namely:
1. What is the institutional effectiveness of REDD+ MRV in terms of its implementation in developing countries?
2. How have institutional arrangements for forest monitoring in Peru evolved, and how and to what extent has their evolution been shaped by international discourses on forests, especially REDD+ MRV?
3. How and to what extent has the concept of MRV become institutionalized in new or reformed institutional arrangements for forest monitoring in Indonesia, Peru and Tanzania, and how can differences in this extent of institutionalization across the countries be explained?
4. How has discursive politics enabled or constrained institutionalization of MRV in Indonesia, Peru and Tanzania?
The chapter then describes the study's overall research design and methodology, and ends by outlining the structure of the dissertation.
Chapter 2 examines the institutional effectiveness of REDD+ MRV. The chapter draws on regime literature to conceptualize UNFCCC and its decisions on REDD+ MRV as an international institution or regime, and outlines the technical and good governance requirements for MRV. Drawing on Young and Levy's (1999) framework for assessing effectiveness of international institutions, and building on UNFCCC and IPCC methodological guidelines for Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF), and good governance literature, it develops criteria and indicators for assessing progress in implementing the identified technical and governance requirements for MRV. Three dimensions on which effectiveness of REDD+ MRV can be evaluated are developed: 'owning technical methods for MRV', 'developing administrative competence' and 'integrating good governance' in MRV. The framework is applied to assess and compare institutional effectiveness of REDD+ MRV in 13 REDD+ countries, based on a review of national and international documents. The Chapter shows that REDD+ countries have high to very high ownership of technical methods. However, the majority of the countries rank only low to moderate on administrative capacity and good governance. This means that although countries have started developing technical methods for MRV, they are yet to develop the competence necessary to administer MRV and to incorporate aspects of good governance in MRV. The chapter explains the scores and suggest ways of improving implementation of REDD+ MRV.
Chapter 3 examines how and to what extent global discourses and ideas on forests, especially the concept of REDD+ MRV, have shaped institutional arrangements for forest monitoring in developing countries, using the case of Peru. It draws on discursive institutionalism to conceptualize REDD+ MRV as a discourse and identify the ideas represented in the discourse. It then combines discursive institutionalism with the policy arrangement approach to craft a framework for examining the extent to which REDD+ MRV, and other global discourses, have shaped national institutional arrangements for forest monitoring in Peru. An analytical distinction is made between 'shallow' and 'deep' institutional change. The chapter identifies three distinct discourses – productivist forest philosophy, multiple-use and sustainable forest management philosophies and REDD+ MRV – that have shaped forest monitoring in Peru. The chapter shows that while all the three discourses have shaped the scope and objectives of forest monitoring, the actors involved, resources used, and rules governing forest assessments, none of them has led to 'deep' institutionalization of forest monitoring. On REDD+ MRV specifically, the chapter shows that it has expanded the scope and objectives of forest assessments in Peru, inspired the mobilization of new actors and resources, and spawned the development of new rules to govern forest monitoring. However, these institutional changes are not yet 'deep', since the new rules for forest inventories have not yet been formally adopted, and the agencies envisioned to implement forest monitoring have not been established. The chapter concludes that forest monitoring in general, and REDD+ MRV in particular, is only shallowly institutionalized in Peru.
Chapter 4 compares how and to what extent the concept of REDD+ MRV has institutionalized in Indonesia, Peru and Tanzania. To do so, the chapter draws on insights from discursive institutionalism operationalized by means of the policy arrangement approach to develop the analytical categories of 'shallow', 'shallow-intermediate', 'deep-intermediate' and 'deep' institutionalization, and uses these categories to examine the extent of institutionalization across the countries. The chapter shows that in all three countries, REDD+ MRV has institutionalized in new or revised aims, scope and strategies for forest monitoring, and the development of new agencies and mobilization of new actors and resources. New legislation to anchor forest monitoring in law, and procedures to institutionalize the roles of the various agencies, are also being developed. Nevertheless, the extent of institutionalization of MRV varies across the countries, with Indonesia experiencing 'deep' institutionalization, Peru 'shallow-intermediate', and Tanzania 'intermediate-deep' institutionalization. To explain the differences in institutionalization, the chapter examines the theoretical factors for discourse institutionalization and their manifestation in each country. It shows that the relatively 'deep' institutionalization of REDD+ MRV in Indonesia and Tanzania is due to the presence of all five factors for discourse institutionalization. Only one factor is found to be present in Peru, and the 'shallow- intermediate' institutionalization of REDD+ is largely due to the absence of other factors. Based on the findings and conclusions, the chapter draws lessons to inform institutionalization of MRV in other countries.
Chapter 5 examines how the discursive politics of MRV policymaking has enabled or constrained institutionalization of REDD+ MRV in Indonesia, Peru and Tanzania. To do this, it draws on the concept of discourse – understood as ideas and the interactive process of policymaking and public deliberation – to examine the actors involved in MRV policy development in the respective countries, and how the deliberation, argumentation and contestation among them (discursive politics) have enabled or constrained institutionalization. The chapter shows that in all countries, the methodologies to be used for MRV, the actors to be involved and their roles were contentious. However, it shows that in Indonesia and Tanzania, where there was a broad-based national discourse on MRV, and where policy actors agreed on the strategies to implement MRV and the role of different actors in forest monitoring, there is relatively 'deep' institutionalization compared to Peru, where such discourse and agreement were lacking. The chapter discusses how the discursive process facilitated institutionalization of REDD+ MRV in Indonesia and Tanzania and constrained the same in Peru. It concludes that how discursive politics is played matters in institutionalization.
Chapter 6 presents the conclusions on the study. It draws on the empirical chapters to answer the research questions, concluding that majority (60%) of the analysed countries has achieved at least a 'moderate' institutional effectiveness for MRV. Further, it concludes that the concept of REDD+ MRV has materialized in reformed institutional arrangements for forest monitoring in Indonesia, Peru and Tanzania, albeit to varying degrees. The chapter also concludes that forest monitoring for REDD+ is not only a technical activity, but is also political. Specifically, it concludes that decisions on what exactly is to be monitored and reported, by whom and using what methods are determined through political negotiations, and that how this political process is managed has a significant influence on how, and the extent to which, MRV is institutionalized. After drawing the conclusions, the chapter reflects on the key theoretical concepts used in the study by outlining how discursive institutionalism and the policy arrangement approach can be used to enrich one another. The chapter ends by outlining several policy recommendations. First, it recommends that while the development of new agencies to implement REDD+ MRV is necessary in some countries, care should be taken to avoid establishment of many agencies. Where possible, policy makers and donors should consider working with and strengthening existing agencies before deciding to establish new agencies. Second, it recommends that more investments be directed to organizing inclusive MRV policy coordination processes, since the politics involved in these processes determine the extent to which REDD+ MRV is institutionalized. Lastly, investments in policy coordination should be accompanied with investments in broader communicative political discourse to enlighten all REDD+ stakeholders on MRV policy processes and the strategies being proposed, while seeking the views and feedback these strategies. This is necessary if the proposed strategies are to be legitimate in the eyes of key REDD+ stakeholders.
Integrated-lts-cbm v1.0.0
DeVries, B.R. - \ 2016
landsat - time series - community-based forestry - tropical forest - deforestation - forest degradation
REDD+ and Climate Smart Agriculture in landscapes : from national design to local implementation
Salvini, G. - \ 2016
Wageningen University. Promotor(en): Arnold Bregt; Martin Herold, co-promotor(en): Arend Ligtenberg. - Wageningen : Wageningen University - ISBN 9789462578371 - 143
climate adaptation - environmental policy - governance - un - landscape management - deforestation - klimaatadaptatie - milieubeleid - governance - vn - landschapsbeheer - ontbossing
Global challenges posed by an increasing food demand and climate change call for innovative mechanisms that consider both agriculture and forests. Agriculture and forests are deeply interconnected in mosaic landscapes, just as multiple pieces of the same puzzle. These pieces are handled by numerous stakeholders with different and often contrasting goals. Hence landscape management is steered by power, access to scarce resources, but also vulnerability and hazards. In this thesis I analyze the roles each stakeholder plays on these dynamics, including policy makers, agribusiness actors and subsistence farmers. I explore landscapes as interconnected tiles of a game, in which players are real stakeholders and their goals determine land use dynamics on the game board just as in reality. Sometimes agreements made in the game translate to real-life actions influencing policy and management decisions. Other times the game is just fun and eventually contributes to social learning and trust.
Optimising land use in Central Kalimantan Province, Indonesia : modelling ecosystem benefits and land use dynamics
Suwarno, Aritta - \ 2016
Wageningen University. Promotor(en): Rik Leemans; Lars Hein, co-promotor(en): Hans-Peter Weikard. - Wageningen : Wageningen University - ISBN 9789462578739 - 156
land use - deforestation - decentralization - ecosystem services - ecosystems - forest policy - forests - modeling - kalimantan - indonesia - landgebruik - ontbossing - decentralisatie - ecosysteemdiensten - ecosystemen - bosbeleid - bossen - modelleren - kalimantan - indonesië
The rising global population has increased the demand for food, renewable energy and other materials. Yet at the same time to meet this demand requires land and the amount of available land is finite. Considering the importance of land and ecosystems in providing benefits for human, I conducted four independent research on the socio-economic and biophysical aspects of ecosystem service, in Central Kalimantan Province, Indonesia. The first three independent studies were used to understand ecosystem management under decentralised forest governance in Indonesia and its influence on ecosystems, ESs and the benefits that different beneficiaries receive. The fourth study combines the outcomes from the previous three studies to assess and select the most appropriate areas for conservation and community development. As the results, I show the applicability of the ecosystem services concept and land-use modelling in optimising land-use under certain decentralised forest governance systems. My thesis' results were obtained through the application of methods and steps that integrated a comprehensive set of qualitative and quantitative analyses to support land-use optimisation in the Kapuas Protected Forest Management Unit. My results can inform decision makers on the options of land-use optimisation and the consequences of their management decisions regarding land-use intensification, nature conservation and local economic conditions. I show how land-use optimisation provides an important step in preventing further land degradation and ecosystem loss.
Landscapes in transition : an analysis of sustainable policy initiatives and emerging corporate commitments in the palm oil industry
Padfield, Rory ; Drew, Simon ; Syayuti, Khadijah ; Page, Susan ; Evers, Stephanie ; Campos-Arceiz, Ahimsa ; Kangayatkarasu, Nagulendran ; Sayok, Alex ; Hansen, Sune ; Schouten, Greetje ; Maulidia, Martha ; Papargyropoulou, Effie ; Tham, Mun Hou - \ 2016
Landscape Research 41 (2016)7. - ISSN 0142-6397 - p. 744 - 756.
corporations - deforestation - diffusion of innovation theory - environmental policy - Indonesia - Malaysia - Palm oil - peatlands
The recent Southeast Asian haze crisis has generated intense public scrutiny over the rate, methods and types of landscape change in the tropics. Debate has centred on the environmental impacts of large-scale agricultural expansion, particularly the associated loss of high carbon stock forest and forests of high conservation value. Focusing on palm oil—a versatile food crop and source of bioenergy—this paper analyses national, international and corporate policy initiatives in order to clarify the current and future direction of oil palm expansion in Malaysia and Indonesia. The policies of 'zero burn', 'no deforestation' and 'no planting on peatlands' are given particular emphasis in the paper. The landscape implications of corporate commitments are analysed to determine the amount of land, land types and geographies that could be affected in the future. The paper concludes by identifying key questions related to the further study of sustainable land use policy and practice.
Carbonizing forest governance: analyzing the consequences of REDD+ for multilevel forest governance
Vijge, M.J. - \ 2016
Wageningen University. Promotor(en): Arthur Mol, co-promotor(en): Aarti Gupta. - Wageningen : Wageningen University - ISBN 9789462576445 - 178
forest policy - governance - deforestation - environmental degradation - forests - carbon - bosbeleid - governance - ontbossing - milieuafbraak - bossen - koolstof
Carbonizing forest governance:
Analyzing the consequences of REDD+ for multilevel forest governance
Marjanneke J. Vijge
Despite the fifty years of global action to combat deforestation and forest degradation, the world is still losing its forests at great scale. A recent governance initiative that has raised high expectations to address global deforestation is Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD+), negotiated under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The idea of REDD+ is to compensate developing countries for their forest-related carbon emission reductions. Through REDD+, forests are governed for their carbon content. I therefore see REDD+ as the embodiment of what I call a "carbonization" of forest governance. This thesis analyzes the consequences of carbonization for multilevel forest governance. It studies whether carbonization leads to 1) a simplification of forest governance through a prime focus on carbon, or a focus on multiple carbon and non-carbon benefits; 2) a centralization or dispersion of authority; 3) a privileging of scientific knowledge—what I call a technicalization—or a diversity in the production and use of knowledge; and 4) a primary reliance on market instruments—what I refer to as marketization—or reliance on a mix of market and non-market instruments. I discuss whether REDD+ can be seen as a case of increased homogenization of environmental governance through simplification, centralization, technicalization, and/or marketization.
The research questions are as follows:
1. How does the carbonization of forest governance manifest itself at different levels, and with what consequences for multilevel forest governance?
2. What does this analysis of the consequences of carbonization reveal about the prospects of a homogenization of environmental governance?
This thesis uses discourses as proxies for how and with what consequences the carbonization of forest governance manifests itself. The thesis analyzes how REDD+ is being framed by policy actors and practitioners, and operationalized in policy, institutional and project developments and design. Triangulation of data is established through reliance on qualitative and quantitative research methods, including semi-structured interviews, surveys, reviews of primary and secondary literature, and direct and participant observation during field visits, project meetings and conferences.
Chapter 2 analyzes how carbonization manifests itself in UNFCCC policy debates and developments surrounding measuring, reporting and verification (MRV) systems that are centrally implicated in REDD+. This chapter shows that at the global level, REDD+ is framed as a mechanism to facilitate results-based compensation for carbon emission reductions, to be measured through national, state-based, expert-led MRV systems. The chapter argues that this may well induce a simplified focus on carbon, a technicalization of forest governance, and a centralization of authority in national state agencies responsible for measuring and accounting for forest carbon units. This might marginalize non-carbon forest services and empower certain groups of actors such as technical experts at the cost of, for example, local communities. Who will be empowered through REDD+, however, ultimately depends on the context-specific operationalization and implementation of REDD+ at the national and local level.
Chapter 3 contains an in-depth case study of how carbonization manifests itself in the Green India Mission (GIM), the cornerstone of India's national REDD+ strategy. The chapter shows that the GIM frames REDD+ as an opportunity to synergistically generate carbon and non-carbon benefits, and promote a further devolution of authority in Indian forest governance to local communities. Chapter 3 nevertheless concludes that this is not likely to be realized without significant investments in benefit-sharing mechanisms and biodiversity and community-based monitoring systems in India.
Chapter 4 presents the in-depth case study of the first REDD+ pilot project in India. The chapter analyzes the prominence of REDD+-related discourses among stakeholders and in project design. The chapter shows that the manifestation of carbonization at project level can be very different from the dominant framing of REDD+ at the global level as a carbon-centric, centralized and technocratic mechanism. The project case study shows how the carbonization of forest governance might become a vehicle to generate multiple carbon and non-carbon benefits, diversify the production and use of knowledge and the types of actors involved therein, disperse authority among actors involved in forest governance, and diversify reliance on both market- and fund-based finances.
Chapter 5 contains a cross-country comparative analysis of the prominence of REDD+-related discourses among national policy actors and in national REDD+ policy documents of seven countries: Cameroon, Indonesia, Nepal, Papua New Guinea, Vietnam, Peru and Tanzania. The chapter shows that though REDD+ is mostly framed as a mechanism to generate carbon and non-carbon benefits, most countries pay very little attention to non-carbon monitoring. Almost all countries lay out detailed plans to diversify the production and use of knowledge through the involvement of local communities in REDD+ MRV systems, but currently lack the institutional capacity to implement such plans. Almost all REDD+ policy documents plan for a national state agency to account for and distribute REDD+ payments. There is, however, strikingly little discussion of how to finance REDD+. The chapter argues that a simplification, a centralization and, to a lesser extent, a technicalization of national forest governance are possible consequences of carbonization.
The concluding chapter shows that carbonization of forest governance manifests itself differently at different levels of governance, with varying consequences for multilevel forest governance. Though homogenization does not yet occur, it may happen in the long run due to the centralization of authority that countries envision in accounting for and distributing REDD+ payments, as well as countries' capacity gaps in non-carbon and community-based monitoring, which make a simplification and technicalization of national forest governance possible consequences of REDD+. In answering the second research question regarding the prospects of a homogenization of environmental governance, the case of REDD+ shows that developing countries retain authority to design policies, but in diversified ways. I argue that though diversity in policies and practices exist, this goes hand in hand with—and sometimes even flows from—efforts to homogenize in order to measure and regulate environmental outcomes at central (global and/or national) levels. As such, the challenges facing global environmental governance lie not only in measuring and controlling environmental outcomes, but also in managing the diversity and fragmentation that arise from these efforts.
Land use patterns and related carbon losses following deforestation in South America
Sy, V. De; Herold, M. ; Achard, F. ; Beuchle, R. ; Clevers, J.G.P.W. ; Lindquist, E. ; Verchot, L. - \ 2015
Environmental Research Letters 10 (2015)12. - ISSN 1748-9326
deforestation - forest carbon loss - land use - proximate causes - REDD+ - remote sensing - South America
Land use change in South America, mainly deforestation, is a large source of anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Identifying and addressing the causes or drivers of anthropogenic forest change is considered crucial for global climate change mitigation. Few countries however, monitor deforestation drivers in a systematic manner. National-level quantitative spatially explicit information on drivers is often lacking. This study quantifies proximate drivers of deforestation and related carbon losses in South America based on remote sensing time series in a systematic, spatially explicit manner. Deforestation areas were derived from the 2010 global remote sensing survey of the Food and Agricultural Organisation Forest Resource Assessment. To assess proximate drivers, land use following deforestation was assigned by visual interpretation of high-resolution satellite imagery. To estimate gross carbon losses from deforestation, default Tier 1 biomass levels per country and eco-zone were used. Pasture was the dominant driver of forest area (71.2%) and related carbon loss (71.6%) in South America, followed by commercial cropland (14% and 12.1% respectively). Hotspots of deforestation due to pasture occurred in Northern Argentina, Western Paraguay, and along the arc of deforestation in Brazil where they gradually moved into higher biomass forests causing additional carbon losses. Deforestation driven by commercial cropland increased in time, with hotspots occurring in Brazil (Mato Grosso State), Northern Argentina, Eastern Paraguay and Central Bolivia. Infrastructure, such as urban expansion and roads, contributed little as proximate drivers of forest area loss (1.7%). Our findings contribute to the understanding of drivers of deforestation and related carbon losses in South America, and are comparable at the national, regional and continental level. In addition, they support the development of national REDD+ interventions and forest monitoring systems, and provide valuable input for statistical analysis and modelling of underlying drivers of deforestation.
Spatial modelling and ecosystem accounting for land use planning: addressing deforestation and oil palm expansion in Central Kalimantan, Indonesia
Sumarga, E. - \ 2015
Wageningen University. Promotor(en): Lars Hein. - Wageningen : Wageningen University - ISBN 9789462574854 - 156
landgebruiksplanning - landgebruik - modelleren - ontbossing - oliepalmen - ecosysteemdiensten - ecosystemen - kalimantan - indonesië - land use planning - land use - modeling - deforestation - oil palms - ecosystem services - ecosystems - kalimantan - indonesia
Ecosystem accounting is a new area of environmental economic accounting that aims to measure ecosystem services in a way that is in line with national accounts. The key characteristics of ecosystem accounting include the extension of the valuation boundary of the System of National Accounts, allowing the inclusion of a broader set of ecosystem services types such regulating services and cultural services. Consistent with the principles of national account, ecosystem accounting focuses on assessment of the contribution of ecosystem in generating benefits for human well-being. Those valuation characteristics allow ecosystem accounting to explicitly visualize the comprehensive values of ecosystem contribution, and integrate them in a standardized national account.
There is a wide range of potential application of ecosystem accounting in natural resource management and environmental preservation. This includes the provision of basic data on the values of multiple ecosystem services (both in terms of physical quantities and monetary values), monitoring ecosystem services dynamics, analyzing impacts of land-use change and land management on the trade-offs of ecosystem services, and development of ecosystem services based land-use planning. Ecosystem accounting approach has also been widely involved in addressing critical environmental issues such as deforestation, GHG emissions, and biodiversity conservation.
Considering the spatial heterogeneity of ecosystem services distribution, spatial analysis is a key element in ecosystem accounting. The availability of spatial information of the values of ecosystem services creates opportunity for a broad range of applications required for land-use planning and management, such as identification of areas with high variability of ecosystem services (often called as ecosystem services hotspots) and areas with high aggregate values of ecosystem services, identification of ecosystem services supply and ecosystem services demand interaction, and analysing the impacts of land-use change on the trade-offs of ecosystem services. Most importantly, spatial information of a comprehensive set of ecosystem services values allows land-use planners to analyse the relationship between any options of land management and the existence of a combination of ecosystem services, hence the best management type which optimize the provision of ecosystem services can be formulated.
The objective of this thesis is to develop an ecosystem services approach to land-use planning through integration of ecosystem accounting and spatial modelling, with a specific case study on deforestation and oil palm expansion in Central Kalimantan Indonesia. The main motivations of this study includes the high rate of deforestation and oil palm expansion in Central Kalimantan, the environmental degradation related to the deforestation such as greenhouse gas emissions and biodiversity loss, the uncertainty of provincial land-use planning, and the lack of experiences on the integration of ecosystem accounting in land-use planning.
In chapter 2 of this thesis, seven key ecosystem services (timber production, rattan production, oil palm production, paddy rice production, carbon storage, carbon sequestration, and wildlife habitat) are assessed and mapped at a provincial scale. The ecosystem services are assessed in term of physical quantities. Three mapping techniques are applied: spatial interpolation, lookup tables, and Maximum Entropy (Maxent) modelling. An ecosystem services based land-use planning is tested using the seven ecosystem services maps to identify areas for oil palm expansion. This study shows that selection of the best spatial modelling technique for ecosystem services mapping highly depends on the availability of input data and the characteristics of spatial distribution of ecosystem services. This study also demonstrates the significant support of spatial information of ecosystem services in provincial land-use planning.
In chapter 3, six ecosystem services mapped in chapter 2 (timber production, rattan production, oil palm production, paddy rice production, carbon sequestration, and wildlife habitat) are valued in monetary terms. The valuation also includes additional cultural service, i.e. nature recreation. Two valuation methods consistent with the principles of ecosystem accounts are applied: resource rent valuation and costs based approach. The monetary values of ecosystem services are then mapped, allowing analysis on the aggregate values of the seven ecosystem services in different land-use types. This study shows the capability of resource rent valuation in filtering and visualizing the value of ecosystem contribution in providing benefits that have market values, and the applicability of a costs based approach for carbon sequestration valuation. However, application of the cost based approach is considered inappropriate in monetary valuation of biodiversity habitat, and further improvement is required. This study also shows how the trade-offs of ecosystem services from the past and the potential land-use change can be analyzed based on the spatial information of monetary values of ecosystem services.
Chapter 4 of this thesis presents land-use change modelling, with a specific case of modelling oil palm expansion in Central Kalimantan. An integrated deductive inductive modelling is developed, using logistic regression and scenario based modelling. The scenarios used in the modelling consist of two scenarios reflecting the past and the current policies on oil palm expansion, i.e. a business as usual scenario and a moratorium scenario, and one alternative scenario, i.e. the sustainable production scenario, developed based on stakeholder workshop and ecosystem services approach studied in chapter 2. Based on the monetary values of ecosystem services valued and mapped in chapter 3, the societal costs and benefits of oil palm expansion based on the three policy scenarios are then analyzed. The model forecasts the continuation of strong oil palm expansion in the period 2015 – 2020, in particular in case of the business as usual scenario, and forecasts that oil palm expansion would level off in the period 2020 – 2025 in all three scenarios. In the business as usual scenario, this expansion would lead to substantial net costs to society resulting from a loss of ecosystem services, particularly from carbon emission emissions. The sustainable production scenario provides the highest net benefits to society, however, implementation of this scenario requires fundamental change of current land-use policy.
Chapter 5 presents hydrological and economic impacts of oil palm development on peat, with a case study in the ex mega rice project area, Central Kalimantan. Hydrological aspect of oil palm development have not been studied in the previous chapters, and this chapter addresses this aspect through modelling three types of flooding on drained peatland for oil palm: impaired drainability, frequent flooding, and near permanent inundation. The model integrates current knowledge on subsidence rates and drinage limits, and uses a high resolution LiDAR DEM. The results of the model are presented up to 2136. The economic impacts are analysed through two land-use scenarios: the oil palm scenario assuming all peatlands in the study area will be converted into oil palm, and the mix scenario combining natural forest preservation, jelutung forest development and oil palm plantation. This study shows that in 100 years' time only around 10% of the area would still be suitable for oil palm. This study also shows that under the first scenario, the social costs of carbon emissions considerably outweigh the benefits of oil palm production. In term of private benefits, the mixed land-use option scores better even at the first plantation cycle. The mix land-use scenario also potentially preserve about 84,000 ha habitat for orangutan. This study provides useful inputs for a comprehensive analysis on the sustainability of oil palm development on peatland.
In general this thesis demonstrates the significant contribution of ecosystem accounting and spatial modelling for land-use planning. Valuation methods and spatial modelling techniques developed in this study provide basis for completing ecosystem accounting in Central Kalimantan, with potential applicability in other regions. By addressing the critical environmental issues in Central Kalimantan, i.e. deforestation and oil palm expansion and their environmental and economic impacts, this study contributes to formulate a better land-use management, which facilitates the need for oil palm development while maintaining the provision of important ecosystem services.
Inauguratie Pieter Zuidema
Zuidema, P.A. - \ 2015
Wageningen UR
tropische bossen - ontbossing - ecosysteemdiensten - bosfragmentatie - klimaatverandering - bosbouweconomie - bosexploitatie - tropical forests - deforestation - ecosystem services - forest fragmentation - climatic change - forest economics - forest exploitation
Hoogleraar Pieter Zuidema vertelt over zijn onderzoek naar invloed van global change op tropische bossen.
Mitigation of agricultural emissions in the tropics: comparing forest land-sparing options at the national level
Carter, S.L. ; Herold, M. ; Rufino, M.C. ; Neumann, K. ; Kooistra, L. ; Verchot, L. - \ 2015
Biogeosciences 12 (2015). - ISSN 1726-4170 - p. 4809 - 4825.
greenhouse-gas mitigation - carbon stocks - deforestation - intensification - food - 21st-century - cropland - policies - regions - maps
Emissions from agriculture-driven deforestation are of global concern, but forest land-sparing interventions such as agricultural intensification and utilization of available non-forest land offer opportunities for mitigation. In many tropical countries, where agriculture is the major driver of deforestation, interventions in the agriculture sector could reduce deforestation emissions as well as reduce emissions in the agriculture sector. Our study uses a novel approach to quantify agriculture-driven deforestation and associated emissions in the tropics between 2000 and 2010. Emissions from agriculture-driven deforestation in the tropics (97 countries) are 4.3 GtCO2e yr-1. We investigate the national potential to mitigate these emissions through forest land-sparing interventions, which can potentially be implemented under REDD+. We consider intensification and utilization of available non-forested land as forest land-sparing opportunities since they avoid the expansion of agriculture into forested land. In addition, we assess the potential to reduce agricultural emissions on existing agriculture land. The use of a systematic framework demonstrates the selection of mitigation interventions by considering sequentially the level of emissions, mitigation potential of various interventions, enabling environment and associated risks to livelihoods at the national level. Our results show that considering only countries with high emissions from agriculture-driven deforestation, with potential for forest-sparing interventions and a good enabling environment (e.g. effective governance or engagement in REDD+), there is a potential to mitigate 1.3 GtCO2e yr-1 (20 countries of 78 with sufficient data). For countries where we identify agricultural emissions as a priority for mitigation, up to 1 GtCO2e yr-1 could be reduced from the agriculture sector including livestock. Risks to livelihoods from implementing interventions based on national level data call for detailed investigation at the local level to inform decisions on mitigation interventions. Three case studies demonstrate the use of the analytical framework. The inherent link between the agriculture and forestry sectors due to competition for land suggests that these sectors cannot be considered independently. Our findings highlight the need to include the forest and the agricultural sectors in the decision-making process to mitigate deforestation.
Mapping future changes in livelihood security and environmental sustainability based on perceptions of small farmers in the Brazilian Amazon.
Diniz, F.H. ; Kok, K. ; Hoogstra-Klein, M.A. ; Arts, B.J.M. - \ 2015
Ecology and Society 20 (2015)2. - ISSN 1708-3087 - 15 p.
fuzzy cognitive maps - mental models - settlement projects - climate-change - land-use - deforestation - conservation - cattle - cows
ABSTRACT Deforestation is a widely recognized problem in the Brazilian Amazon. Small farmers play a key role in this process in that they earn their livelihood by ranching and farming. Many studies have addressed the link between deforestation and livelihood strategies adopted by small farmers. Most have focused on advanced monitoring systems, simulation models, and GIS approaches to analyze the interaction of both dimensions, i.e., livelihoods and forest cover change. Although the current toolbox of methods has proved successful in increasing our understanding of these interactions, the models and approaches employed do not consider small farmers' perspectives. On the assumption that local small farmers are agents of land-cover change, understanding how they perceive their own situation is essential to elucidate their actions. Our objective is to explore future changes in livelihood security and environmental sustainability as envisaged by local small farmers in the Brazilian Amazon. Previous livelihood cluster analysis of small farmers located in southeast Pará was integrated with fuzzy cognitive mapping to determine present perceptions and to explore future changes, using global scenarios downscaled to the local situation. Overall, system description differs only on details; all results indicate a strong trade-off between livelihood security and environmental sustainability in all livelihood systems, as identified by the small farmers. However, fundamentally different outcomes are obtained from the future analysis, depending on the livelihood strategy cluster. Achieving win-win outcomes does not necessarily imply a positive scenario, especially if small farmers are dependent on income transfers from the government to provide their livelihood.
Robust monitoring of small-scale forest disturbances in a tropical montane forest using Landsat time series
DeVries, B.R. ; Verbesselt, J. ; Kooistra, L. ; Herold, M. - \ 2015
Remote Sensing of Environment 161 (2015). - ISSN 0034-4257 - p. 107 - 121.
etm plus data - geostatistical approach - afromontane forests - southwest ethiopia - detecting trends - central-africa - satellite data - cover change - deforestation - imagery
Remote sensing data play an important role in the monitoring of forest changes. Methods are needed to provide objective estimates of forest loss to support monitoring efforts at various scales, and with increasing public availability of remote sensing data, accurate deforestation measurements at high temporal resolution are becoming more realistic. While several time series based methods have recently been described in the literature, there are few studies focusing on tropical forest areas, where low data availability and complex change processes present challenges to forest disturbance monitoring. Here, we present a robust data-driven method to track tropical deforestation and degradation based on Landsat time series data. Based on the previously reported Breaks For Additive Season and Trend Monitor (BFAST Monitor) method (Verbesselt etal., 2012), we show that BFAST Monitor, when applied to Landsat NDVI time series data using sequentially defined monitoring periods, can be used to track small-scale forest disturbances annually in an Afromontane forest system in southern Ethiopia. Using an ordinal logistic regression (OLR) approach, change magnitude, calculated based on differences between observed and expected values in a monitoring period, was found to be an essential predictor variable for disturbances. After applying a NDVI change magnitude threshold of - 0.065, overall accuracy was estimated to be 78%, and both producer's and user's accuracy of the disturbance class were estimated to be 73%. The method and results presented here are relevant to tropical countries engaged in REDD + for whom data availability and complex forest change dynamics limit the ability to reliably track forest disturbances over time.
Competing discourses on REDD+: Global debates versus the first Indian REDD+ project
Vijge, M.J. - \ 2015
Forest Policy and Economics 56 (2015). - ISSN 1389-9341 - p. 38 - 47.
ecosystem services - forest governance - costa-rica - social safeguards - carbon offsets - climate-change - co-benefits - trade-offs - deforestation - interests
This article analyzes three of themost contentious scholarly and political debates regarding REDD+, focusing on 1) what REDD+ should achieve; 2) who should monitor REDD+ outcomes; and 3) how REDD+ should be financed. In analyzing these, the article conceptualizes three sets of storylines and assesseswhich of the identified storylines resonate in the first Indian REDD+ project, focusing on both stakeholders' views and project design. The three identified questions do not give rise to contentious debates among stakeholders of the REDD+project. Contrasting views on REDD+found in scholarly and political debates – such as carbon versus non-carbon objectives, authority of technical experts versus local communities, and market versus fund-based approaches – are not prevalent among project stakeholders, who believe that different approaches to REDD+ can be combined and can even reinforce each other. Project stakeholders prefer non-carbon benefits as the project's main objective to be monitored jointly by experts and local communities, and favor a mix of fund- and market-based approaches. This is also reflected in the project design. The conclusion reflects on the insights that the multi-level discourse analysis in this article generated, including for REDD+ in general.
Creating a safe operating space for iconic ecosystems
Scheffer, M. ; Barrett, S. ; Carpenter, S.R. ; Folke, C. ; Green, A.J. ; Holmgren, M. ; Hughes, T.P. ; Kosten, S. ; Leemput, I.A. van de; Nepstad, D.C. ; Nes, E.H. van; Peeters, E.T.H.M. ; Walker, B. - \ 2015
Science 347 (2015)6228. - ISSN 0036-8075 - p. 1317 - 1319.
climate-change - coral-reefs - deforestation - resilience - impacts - amazon - shifts - fire
Although some ecosystem responses to climate change are gradual, many ecosystems react in highly nonlinear ways. They show little response until a threshold or tipping point is reached where even a small perturbation may trigger collapse into a state from which recovery is difficult (1). Increasing evidence shows that the critical climate level for such collapse may be altered by conditions that can be managed locally. These synergies between local stressors and climate change provide potential opportunities for proactive management. Although their clarity and scale make such local approaches more conducive to action than global greenhouse gas management, crises in iconic UNESCO World Heritage sites illustrate that such stewardship is at risk of failing.
Forest Carbon Offsets Revisited: Shedding Light on Darkwoods
Kooten, G.C. van; Bogle, T. ; Vries, F.P. de - \ 2015
Forest Science 61 (2015)2. - ISSN 0015-749X - p. 370 - 380.
land management - policy design - sequestration - emissions - redd - implementation - deforestation - framework - prospects - programs
This paper investigates the viability of carbon offset credits created through forest conservation and preservation. A detailed forest management model based on a case study of a forest estate in southeastern British Columbia, owned by The Nature Conservancy of Canada (NCC) is used to demonstrate the challenging nature of estimating forest carbon offsets. For example, the NCC management plan creates substantial carbon offset credits because the counterfactual is that of a private forest liquidator, but when sustainable management of the site is assumed, the commercial operator would sequester much more carbon than under the NCC plan. The broader message is that the creation of carbon offsets is highly sensitive to ex ante assumptions and whether physical carbon is discounted. We demonstrate that more carbon gets stored in wood products as the discount rate on carbon rises (addressing climate change is more urgent). A high discount rate on carbon favors greater harvests and processing of biomass into products, while a low rate favors reduced harvest intensity. Further, since carbon credits earned by protecting forests may find their way onto world carbon markets, they lower the costs of emitting CO2 while contributing little to mitigating climate change.
Mapping Ecosystem Services for Land Use Planning, the Case of Central Kalimantan
Sumarga, E. ; Hein, L.G. - \ 2014
Environmental Management 54 (2014)1. - ISSN 0364-152X - p. 84 - 97.
tropical forests - west kalimantan - southeast-asia - united-states - east-asia - indonesia - conservation - emissions - peat - deforestation
Indonesia is subject to rapid land use change. One of the main causes for the conversion of land is the rapid expansion of the oil palm sector. Land use change involves a progressive loss of forest cover, with major impacts on biodiversity and global CO2 emissions. Ecosystem services have been proposed as a concept that would facilitate the identification of sustainable land management options, however, the scale of land conversion and its spatial diversity pose particular challenges in Indonesia. The objective of this paper is to analyze how ecosystem services can be mapped at the provincial scale, focusing on Central Kalimantan, and to examine how ecosystem services maps can be used for a land use planning. Central Kalimantan is subject to rapid deforestation including the loss of peatland forests and the provincial still lacks a comprehensive land use plan. We examine how seven key ecosystem services can be mapped and modeled at the provincial scale, using a variety of models, and how large scale ecosystem services maps can support the identification of options for sustainable expansion of palm oil production.
Interacting Regional-Scale Regime Shifts for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services
Leadley, P. ; Proenca, V. ; Fernandez-Manjarres, J. ; Pereira, H.M. ; Alkemade, J.R.M. ; Biggs, R. ; Bruley, E. ; Cheung, W. ; Cooper, D. ; Figueiredo, J. ; Gilman, E. ; Guenette, S. ; Hurtt, G. ; Mbow, C. ; Oberdorff, T. ; Revenga, C. ; Scharlemann, J.P.W. ; Scholes, R. ; Smith, M.S. ; Sumaila, U.R. ; Walpole, M. - \ 2014
Bioscience 64 (2014)8. - ISSN 0006-3568 - p. 665 - 679.
climate-change - marine biodiversity - ocean acidification - global fisheries - tipping points - amazon basin - land-use - impacts - deforestation - forests
Current trajectories of global change may lead to regime shifts at regional scales, driving coupled human-environment systems to highly degraded states in terms of biodiversity, ecosystem services, and human well-being. For business-as-usual socioeconomic development pathways, regime shifts are projected to occur within the next several decades, to be difficult to reverse, and to have regional- to global-scale impacts on human society. We provide an overview of ecosystem, socioeconomic, and biophysical mechanisms mediating regime shifts and illustrate how these interact at regional scales by aggregation, synergy, and spreading processes. We give detailed examples of interactions for terrestrial ecosystems of central South America and for marine and coastal ecosystems of Southeast Asia. This analysis suggests that degradation of biodiversity and, ecosystem services over the twenty-first century could be far greater than was previously predicted. We identify key policy and management opportunities at regional to global scales to avoid these shifts.


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