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The bacteria found in some fermented dairy products, such as yogurt, may alter gene expression in human gut microbes, and resultant tweaks to metabolic processes could be behind gastrointestinal benefits often observed in people consuming such probiotic products, according to a study published today (26 October) in Science Translational Medicine. The work was funded by several grants from the National Institutes of Health and from Danone Research, the scientific research arm of Groupe Danone, a Paris-based multinational food products corporation that specializes in dairy products.
Since the 1990s, clinical trials have shown that probiotic bacteria can aid digestion in humans, but the molecular mechanisms involved in conferring those health benefits have proved difficult to pin down. "Nobody really understands how probiotics affect human health," said University of California, Davis, food microbiologist David Mills, who was not involved with the study. "What [this study] has shown...
Jeffrey Gordon, a microbiologist at Washington University in St. Louis, and his team gave a commercially-available probiotic yogurt containing five strains of bacteria to healthy adult volunteers and administered the same five strains to mice that harbored a subset of genetically-characterized human gut microbes. The yogurt bacteria did not significantly alter population structure in any of the entrenched gut microbes, in humans or mice—a result that is not surprising, according to Mills. "To assume that you could eat a yogurt and numerically challenge what's in your gut is kind of like dumping a gallon of Kool-Aid in your swimming pool and expecting it to change color," he said.
But RNA sequencing of the human gut microbes in the mice revealed that the probiotic bacteria changed the expression of gut microbe genes encoding key metabolic enzymes, such as those involved in the catabolism of sugars called xylooligosaccharides, which are found in many fruits and vegetables. Mass spectrometry of metabolites in urine, which result from the ramped up metabolic processes in the probiotic-fed mice, confirmed the alterations, and when the researchers ran similar analyses on gut microbes from the human yogurt eaters, they found upregulation of the same genes.
"The results show that in this particular set of conditions [probiotic] organisms are capable of altering the metabolic properties of a human microbial community," said Gordon.
The fact that Gordon's team could detect a signal of altered gene expression in the mice, which harbored only 15 species of human gut microbe, and that same signal was also apparent in the vastly more complex human gastrointestinal milieu is the start of something big, according to Gregor Reid, a nutritional researcher at the Lawson Health Research Institute in Canada who wasn't involved with the study. "Even with a very simplified model, they could replicate the effects they found in humans," said Reid, who wrote an accompanying opinion piece that was published in the same issue of Science Translational Medicine.
Gordon noted that the mouse model he used in the current study points a way forward to further probe the interactions between entrenched gut microbial communities and probiotic products, which could allow researchers to develop new hypotheses, identify novel biomarkers, and apply findings in preclinical models and eventually clinical uses for such products.
Continued research may also help to elucidate the precise interactions between probiotic bacteria or other dietary inputs and resident gut microbes that lead to alterations in gene expression and metabolism. "We don't know the nature of the molecular communications between these yogurt strains and the entrenched microbial community," Gordon said. "Each member of the [gut] community was able to adjust its metabolism presumably in a way that benefitted itself and the rest of the community as well. These organisms constantly try to find a niche or profession that allows them to survive in these complicated communities."
McNulty et al., "The Impact of a Consortium of Fermented Milk Strains on the Gut Microbiome of Gnotobiotic Mice and Monozygotic Twins," Science Translational Medicine, DOI: 10.1126/scitranslmed.3002701, 2011.


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Today's Names to Know: Jeff Francis, Justin Upton, CC Sabathia, Josh Beckett, BCS, Chase Daniel, Glenn Dorsey, Vinny Testaverde, Tom Brady, Tony Romo, Grant Hill, John Schuerholz, Dennis Franchione,
MLB Playoffs: NLCS. Rockies take Game 1 in
Stud: Jeff Francis, who out-pitched Brandon Webb. The Dud was either Justin Upton, for that iffy slide ruled interference that triggered a double-play and the ire of previously flaccid
MLB Playoffs: ALCS. Sabathia vs. Beckett in
Yankees' decision on Torre pushed back to next week: So much for speculation that they would let him go immediately after the playoffs ended for the Yankees. (That's all I have to say about that; let's try something different and not talk about the Yankees today.)
CFB Top 25 Preview and Picks: After the last two weeks, I think fans need/deserve a break. Some sort of low-upset weekend where the top teams simply win – and we all wait for the insanity of the first BCS poll to come out after the weekend.
Presuming no upsets (iffy), the question is this: Which team will join LSU in the uber-coveted first two spots in the BCS poll? It's either going to be
(Two other teams deserve consideration for that No. 2 spot: South Florida and Mizzou. If Mizzou can beat Oklahoma on the road, that would be as impressive as Cal beating Oregon on the road, which -- so far -- is the most impressive win of the year. Unfortunately for BC, beating Notre Dame – even in
Of other particular interest: Does LSU suffer any kind of let-down after the huge
4 BC over at Notre Dame
5 South
10 USC over
Here's a fun preview from EDSBS' Orson Swindle, now writing weekly for the Sporting News.
Meanwhile, Glenn Dorsey for Heisman? It's not a crazy thought, with even the most talented offensive player (Darren McFadden), most valuable offensive player (Tim Tebow), most NFL-prized offensive player (Brian Brohm) and the standard whoever-is-playing-QB-for-USC all having their own flaws. The NYT's influential Pete Thamel makes the case. If it was ever going to happen, this would be the year.
Last night:
(Remember when FSU losing to
NFL Week 6 Preview and Picks
Everything else on Sunday and Monday is a distant second to the huge battle of unbeatens: Patriots at Cowboys. But here's the thing: The Pats are going to wax them, just like they've waxed everyone else. Even more so, I'll bet, because thumping the next-best team in the league sends an even clearer message that we're witnessing 19-0.
At Browns over Dolphins
At Packers over Redskins
Bengals over at Chiefs
Eagles over at Jets
Titans over at Bucs
Jaguars over Texans
Ravens over Rams
Cardinals over Panthers
Pats over at Cowboys (GOTW)
Chargers over Raiders
Seahawks over Saints (SNF)
Giants over Falcons (MNF)
Oh, wait, there IS an intriguing storyline beyond Pats-Cowboys: Will Vinny Testaverde start for the Panthers on Sunday, just days after the 43-year-old joined the team? That is awesome, and infinitely more interesting than seeing David Carr start with that sore back.
John Schuerholz resigns as GM of Braves: I didn't particularly like his philosophy when I read about it during his book tour earlier this year, but I certainly respect the way he put together all those titles. (Sorry: Division titles. Wouldn't want to confuse him with a guy who won multiple World Series championships.) He will remain the No. 2 guy in the franchise, which should make his replacement, Assistant GM Frank Wren, a little uneasy. Can't imagine Schuerholz will let it go.
Texas A&M doesn't like Dennis Franchione's secret email newsletter to boosters: I give him points for creativity (with points docked for sheer stupidity – either he was stupid to think he wouldn't get caught or stupid to think it wasn't a big deal). Apparently, he has violated his contract; if A&M wants to oust him, this is their opportunity. It also makes me wonder if I could make any money with my little online "newsletter"...
NBA Preseason: Grant Hill made his preseason debut with the Suns, and he finished with 17 and 8 as a starter playing 24 minutes. He's in for a Renaissance... Al Horford led all rebounders in
Trade-Kobe Watch: Meanwhile, off of yesterday's news that Jerry Buss would (or is that "will?") trade
(Maybe not better enough to contend in the West, but they weren't going to contend in the West with
Today's Must-Read: Whenever The Big Picture comes out with another blogger interview, it's a must-read. Today: Brian from Awful Announcing, one of the most popular and talented bloggers out there.
College Hoops: Midnight Madness! Is it me, or is Midnight Madness not the "event" it used to be. It used to be a lot more "underground" and fun. I loved the live look-ins on TV, the weird dunk contests, the novelty of students and fans going crazy at such a weird hour. (Hat-tip: Lefty Dreisell.) It's a little bit more of a slick production now, with a lot of teams dropping the whole "midnight" part, which consequently guts the "madness" part.)
Anyway, is it too early for Final Four predictions? (No, I'm not taking
Without their Final Four nemesis of the past two years blocking the way, this year's national champion will be...
Basketball Prospectus launches: Congrats to Ken "KenPom" Pomeroy and John "Wonk" Gasaway on the launch of Basketball Prospectus this week. (I guess their own version of "Midnight Madness.")
Here's the link, and it should immediately go into your daily rotation. Here's their tip-off link and a link to their ACC overview.

subset: commoncrawl


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i don't know when, precisely, so takyah tanya i bila k?
anyway, selaku bekas pelajar UTP, my advice to you potential candidates is to chill.
i don't know how the system works now because i never went to educamp and if i did went, it's different now.
i got my scholarship when i was in matrix lagi. i went for the interview on my 2nd semester in matrix.
matrix best kot.
especially matrix gambang, pahang.
i know, i know, a lot of people think gam*ang. so what? it's still the coolest matrix evah! dah la lagu pahang best! hahaha!
ok back to UTP yadda yadda yadda.
so what i'm sure of, the interview will be in stages. i don't remember the sequence or what they asked, coz face it babes, it was like 5 years ago kot. my memory isn't that great. so i'm sorry for the lack of details.
but what i do remember, the interview was very very much like Muet. there's like a group interview, and solo interviews.
serious i tak ingat details.
now my advice.
you have to be prepared. i mean, everywhere and anywhere pun you have to be prepared. but at least, try to brush up on your social skills. why? simple. if you're not open minded, you're not willing to take criticism, you're can't share opinions or accept others, you rather just sit at the corner buat muka cute, memang takde orang nak kisah la.
being social doesn't mean you have to go to every person and ask for their facebook so you can add them up or whatever you think being social means. i meant when you're open, you can talk confidently, you can share ideas and listen to others as well, insyallah orang lain pun have confidence in you and respect you.
you respect others, others will respect you. insyallah.
just don't be overconfident.
majooooorrrr turn off.
oh, and UTP now doesn't offer scholarships as much now. it wasn't like this during my time. i sound old there.
so what. hehe!
alhamdulillah i was sponsored but yeah, i didn't get to work in the big P eventhough i graduated in 2nd class upper (i know takde la gempak mana, but it's an achievement to me). it's not always happy ending you know. this is reality. sometimes Tuhan nak challenge kita to make us push ourselves. to strive harder. takkan semua nak smooth sailing right? alhamdulillah i got on by fine! i bersyukur sangat with what i have now. =)
ok, you have to really know the terms and conditions to getting scholarships, if you're looking for it. not just petronas's scholarship, jpa ke mara ke, whatever la. know their terms. jangan main amik je sume nak belasah tapi bila dapat course yang doesn't suit u, you tak dapat perform. rugi.
rezeki memang di tangan Tuhan, tapi usaha tu datang dari diri sendiri dong.
i sedar itu, and you should too.
in the end, what's so great about UTP sampai you nak takut takut? chill la. it's just a university. if you don't get a placement there, there're loads of other universities.
it's not as if you tak dapat means you takde future. rezeki comes in many ways. you lose some, you gain some. but like i said, usaha comes from yourself.
jangan pemalas boleh tak?
this is your future, so why are you depending on others to lay it out for you?
i bukan malas nak share, but seriously, i'm working already.
means my time and yours are different.
so many new universities have opened up and the levels have changed.
don't just go for famous universities. you nak education ke nak glamour?
loads of people tak kenal kot UTP. there was a lady who asked me where i studied, and when i answered UTP, she said "ohhh buat pertanian ke?" i was like whaaat? and she said "ye lah, universiti teknologi pertanian?".
chill la k?
education is important. very very important. so know your interests at least, if you don't know your strengths.
i didn't know mine until i masuk matrix.
i got sains fizikal, pastu bajet nak buat medic, so i changed to sains hayat, tapi bila buat biology, i slept like a baby.
so i went back to sains fizikal and fell in love with maths, physics and chemistry. that's why i pursued engineering.
tadaaaa~ my love story~~
ok dah banyaaaaaaak sangat bebel.
i know my advices aren't so useful to you yang nak gi educamp and go through the interviews, but what i'm trying to convey here is that you should not be so scared of interviews!
ingat la, ada banyakkkkkk options lagi kot!
oh, preparations for interviews?
practise talking in english. you all yang hate english, ha memang cari pasal la. i takleh nak tolong in that matter.
you realise that i mix english and malay?
well it's because i wasn't so good in english when i was studying in school. but i started mixing up english and malay, and semakin lama, semakin senang nak cakap in english without feeling embarrassed about it. yeah yeah my grammar and vocab may not be awesome like Harry Potter's but hey, chill la. it won't kill anyone.
betul tak?
at least i tried. at least i can speak and write confidently now.
so i wish you all the best! your future is bright kot! look for options and prepare yourself.
remember, this is your future.
don't depend on others to make it for you.
you make your own way.
insyallah things will work out for you. =)


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For Rock Grabber Tires/Comes with Bead Lock Rings/2.2in
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Each ring is made from stainless steel, making them extra heavy to keep them firmly planted on steep terrain. These wheels are available in white, black, chrome and black chrome so you can customize your vehicle to match the body paint scheme. Sold in pairs. Bead lock rings, screws and aluminum washers are included. Because of the special bead lock construction, these tires must be used with HPI Rock Grabber Tires. #3211 ROCK 8 BEAD LOCK WHEEL WHITE (55x36mm/2pcs) #3212 ROCK 8 BEAD LOCK WHEEL BLACK (55x36mm/2pcs) #3213 ROCK 8 BEAD LOCK WHEEL CHROME (55x36mm/2pcs) #3214 ROCK 8 BEAD LOCK WHEEL BLACK CHROME (55x36mm/2pcs) #4896 ROCK GRABBER TIRE S COMPOUND (130x55mm/2.2in/2pcs) Replacement parts: #3230 BEAD LOCK RING 6 HOLE (SILVER/47x62x2.0mm/2pcs) (enough for 2 wheels) #88083 ALUMINUM WASHER 4x14x1.5mm (BLACK/4pcs)


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Linda Durham, owner of Linda Durham Contemporary Art (1101 Paseo de Peralta, 466-6600), traveled to the Gaza Strip in March to celebrate International Women's Day (March 8, 2009) with Code Pink, an international organization of women for peace.
SFR: How did you get involved with Code Pink?
LD: I've been on Code Pink's email list and one morning, in late February, I turned on my computer and [an email] said, 'Come with us to Gaza.' By 9 am I had signed up. That very day I got my tickets. The stated goal was to celebrate International Women's Day with the women of Gaza and also to be a delegation that would encourage—I use the word encourage instead of force—the Egyptians to open the borders to Gaza.
What was International Women's Day like there?
I found that day particularly emotional. I wrote in my journal that if the trip ended after that one day, it would all have been worth it. There was a sisterhood that we felt for one another. Every single woman kissed me in the Palestinian way. They all thanked me. I was crying—thanking me? For what? They were thanking me for just coming to hear their stories, just being there.
What happened during the rest of your stay?
We went to hospitals; we went to schools; we went to the bombed areas in the north; we went to relocation camps; we met women who had been imprisoned in Israel and had been tortured there. They spoke to us—that was another time of just crying, crying, crying. Even the translator was crying. One night we had an opportunity to meet with a doctor whose daughters had been killed, including a girl who had come [to Santa Fe] for Creativity for Peace. His apartment was quite nice. And then from a darkened hallway, I saw one of the members of our delegation was being held up by the doctor's brother, like she had collapsed. A minute later we went into that room. It was the room where the girls died. Where the bomb came in. The horror of that room is that there's a giant hole in the wall, and there's debris and bomb parts everywhere, but on the ceiling and on the books and all around—blood and pieces of flesh. To be in that room, with the father who lost his daughters and his niece…
Did the trip change your impressions of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict?
[In the US] we get a very one-sided picture. And I may be giving you a very one-sided picture on the other side. Before I went there, I had a view that was a little more centrist and balanced—like, 'They're all nuts. An eye for an eye.' But when you're actually there and see what has happened to one group of people against what has happened to another group of people, something has to be done.
What are you going to do? What can you do?
I can give talks. I can write. I can speak out. I can join another delegation. I can continue to stand on the corner of Cerrillos and St. Francis on Fridays. I can write to my congressman; I can go to Washington. I can do all those things, for sure. But can I get other people to join me? Can I form a New Mexico delegation and go back again? Because that's what's needed. I also want to know the other side; I'd like to go back to Israel…to talk to some Israelis and see what their feelings are.
Was it weird to spend this time in Gaza and then to come back here to your gallery every day?
Yes. I was once in Bolivia in a very small town. Someone asked me, 'What do you do?' And I thought…I can't say that I sell big pieces of cloth for $5,000. So I said I was a teacher. It was at that time that I thought a teacher is a righteous job.
How, then, do you justify your profession?
Because I really think that the gallery is, for me, a vehicle for communication. It is a place where everybody is welcome and where there is always some kind of interesting dialogue going on, and that we are exhibiting the product of creative, authentic, deep, honest, smart minds—and that makes this gallery fine. That's how I rationalize it.
Santa Fe Reporter


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How do I clean enamelware?
Our enamelware is dishwasher safe. Of course, it can be cleaned by hand as well with warm, soapy water. If washing by hand, we recommend that you towel dry the enamelware quickly and thoroughly. Please note that soaking enamelware may cause slight rusting to occur from under the rim. If this does occur, the rust can be removed with a very light abrasive cleaner, like ceramic stovetop cleaner.
What do I do if the enamel surface chips?
While enamelware is extremely durable, the surface can chip if an item is dropped or gets hit with great force. If a chip occurs, simply clean the chipped area and rub the exposed metal with cooking oil to help prevent rusting. Please note that the metal is not toxic, so your enamelware is still completely functional.
What oven temperatures can enamelware tolerate?
Golden Rabbit enamelware is made in a kiln at 1600 degrees and can withstand temperatures above 550 degrees. It is well-suited for use in the oven, on the stovetop and under the broiler.
What are the little flecks in the finish of the enamel?
Sometimes during the kiln firing of the enamel, specks get into the finish of the surface and result in little flecks that are fused into the enamelware. These naturally occurring flecks are part of the process and do not adversely affect the finished piece.
Why does the swirl pattern vary slightly from piece to piece?
Each piece of Golden Rabbit enamelware is handmade. The enamel surface begins as a liquid that is splashed on to a piece by hand prior to being fired in the kiln. The design of the swirling colors takes shape during that process. It is the uniqueness of the swirl pattern that creates the charm and authenticity of our enamelware.
What should I do if rust appears on my enamelware?
It is possible for spots of rust to occur if the enamel surface becomes chipped or cracked and the metal core or rim is exposed, but rusting does not compromise the functionality of your enamelware. If this does occur, the rust can be removed with a very light abrasive cleaner, like ceramic stovetop cleaner. Once the surface is clean, simply rub it with a small amount of cooking or olive oil.
Can I use enamelware on my grill?
Yes. Our enamelware is made to withstand high temperatures and direct heat.
Does enamelware get hot to the touch?
Enamelware does get hot, so pot holders should be used when removing enamelware from the oven or other heat sources. The handles of our mugs are designed to stay cool, but caution should be used when removing them from the oven. Please note that hot enamelware should not be submerged in cold water or placed directly into the refrigerator or freezer.
Will enamelware scratch if cut with a knife?
The enamelware surface is very hard and durable and does not scratch easily. Over years of use it will experience normal wear and tear, just as china and ceramics do.
Can I put the enamelware in the freezer?
Yes. Our enamelware is extremely durable and can withstand freezing temperatures. Please note that hot enamelware should not be placed directly into the freezer.
Does your enamelware contain lead or cadmium? Is it toxic?
Your health and safety is very important to Golden Rabbit. Our enamelware is absolutely food safe and non toxic. All of our products tested to ensure they pass FDA and CPSIA requirements.
Is enamelware okay for the microwave?
Because enamelware has a metal core and rim, it is not suitable for microwave use and may cause damage to your microwave.


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SAN JOSE, Calif. (AP) — A high-tech startup is wading into the gun control debate with a wireless controller that would allow gun owners to know when their weapon is being moved — and disable it remotely.
The technology, but not an actual gun, was slated to be demonstrated Tuesday at a wireless technology conference in Las Vegas and was shown to The Associated Press in advance. It comes at a time when lawmakers around the U.S. are considering contentious smart gun laws that would require new guns to include high-tech devices that limit who can fire them.
The new Yardarm Technologies LLC system would trigger an alarm on an owner's cellphone if a gun is moved, and the owner could then hit a button to activate the safety and disable the weapon. New guns would come with a microchip on the body and antennas winding around the grip. It would add about $50 to the cost of a gun, and about $12 a year for the service.
"The idea is to connect gun owners more directly with their guns, no matter what the circumstance," said Yardarm CEO Robert Stewart.
The Yardarm system is one of several recently introduced high-tech offerings: the iGun only fires if it recognizes a ring on a finger, the Intelligun uses a fingerprint locking system and TriggerSmart uses radio frequency identification.
The first smart guns were proposed more than 20 years ago, but they failed to take off for several reasons: questionable technology, added costs and concerns from some gun rights about limitations on Second Amendment rights.
Recent high-profile shootings, combined with new technologies, have revived interest. Sandy Hook Promise, a nonprofit created by Newtown, Conn., community members, is offering venture capital for new gun safety technologies, and President Barack Obama included smart guns as part of his plan to reduce gun violence.
Stewart said his company has addressed privacy concerns about its system, which would not only include live tracking but also a history of where a gun has been. Yardarm has an exclusive telephony network to avoid hackers and spotty wireless systems, and gun owners could "self-destruct" the technology on the guns themselves if they wish, he said.
National Rifle Association spokesman Andrew Arulanandam said his organization is concerned about added costs and the reliability of smart guns in general.
"We believe that the technology does not exist today where a so-called smart gun can operate with 100 percent or close to it reliability," he said, "and a firearm that does not function when it is required to is not a smart gun."
The added costs are "a luxury tax on self-defense," Arulanandam said.
At this point, there are no guns that can be wirelessly tracked or disabled, but there are systems that can locate and disable stolen cars. In 2011, one such company, OnStar LLC, came under fire for continuing to track customers' locations even after they discontinued their service. The company reversed the policy after a barrage of privacy complaints.
Last week, lawmakers in California and Massachusetts considered proposals to require gun makers to add high tech safety devices that allow only their owners to fire them. New Jersey has adopted a similar law.
Josh Sugarmann, executive director of the nonprofit Violence Policy Center, said his organization has no position on smart guns. However, he said he does oppose federal tax dollars for their research because they wouldn't impact the 310 million firearms already circulating in the U.S. today.


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Friday, May 4, 2012
5 million new private sector jobs and counting
The April gain in employment was less than expected, but with substantial upward revisions to prior months, net employment gains were actually slightly higher than expected. So there's no reason the news should be viewed as negative or disappointing. In fact, when you dig into the numbers and include the household survey in your dataset, the news continues to be mildly encouraging. The chart above focuses on gains in private sector employment, and what stands out is that the household survey continues to pick up more jobs than the establishment survey. This is fairly typical in the early years of a recovery, since the household survey is better at finding new startup companies and people who have gone to work for themselves. The establishment survey only surveys companies that have been in existence for awhile. According to the household survey, things have really improved over the past year.
According to the household survey, the private sector has added about 5 million jobs since the low in employment at the end of 2009; that works out to an annualized gain of 1.9%. But over the past year, the household survey shows a gain of 3 million jobs, which is a gain of 2.5%. The chart above shows the 6-mo. annualized gain in private sector jobs according to each survey, and here we see how the pace of jobs growth has picked up of late, especially in the household survey. If you just split the difference between the two, private sector jobs growth now equals or exceeds the best years of the prior business cycle (which doesn't say all that much, since it wasn't a very robust growth cycle). Jobs growth is going to have to pick up a lot more, of course, before the economy can begin to get back on track, but at least we continue to make progress towards that goal.
As an aside, here's an updated version of the chart from yesterday's post. With the upward revisions to the BLS numbers released today, it now looks like ADP's jobs number has been pretty close to the BLS. In fact, ADP has consistently underestimated private sector jobs growth, but not by much: year to date, the ADP total is +730K, while the BLS reports 827K., for a monthly difference of only 24K. That's a mere rounding error for this data. Same goes for the past year, with ADP reporting +1.85 million, and the BLS +2.03 million, for a monthly difference of only 16K.
Other than the fact that this recovery has been fairly tepid given the depths of the prior recession, this recovery stands out as being the first during which public sector jobs have taken a serious hit. This is painful for those involved, of course, but it is very encouraging from a macro perspective, because the public sector has enjoyed disproportionate gains over the past decade. As the chart above shows, the private sector has experienced only a very small gain since early 2000, while the public sector, after losing about 700K workers since the 2009 peak, is still 7% larger than it was at the beginning of 2000. If our fiscal house is going to be put in order, the public sector is going to have to slim down even more in the years to come. And that is especially true for compensation (including pension benefits), since numerous surveys now show that public sector employees enjoy substantially higher pay than their private sector counterparts.
Overall, I'd say that the news today was mildly encouraging. So far, however, the market seems to be disagreeing with me, with stocks down and bond yields down. But with the economic fundamentals continuing to improve, albeit only modestly, the market should eventually reconsider and reverse today's action.
61 comments:
- Junkyard_hawg1985 said...
I agree that the household survey is better and that over the past year, it has shown more strength than the establishment survey. I put more trust in the Household survey as it better reflects small business. My concern is that the seasonally adjusted household survey has shown a drop in total employment for the past two months:
February: 142,065,000
March: 142,034,000
April: 141,865,000
While this is not a big drop, it is heading in the wrong direction and may be an artifact of the seasonal adjustments after a warm February.
The good news is that I had been concerned about a drop in profits for the Dow 30 in 1Q12 after a drop in 4Q11. While there are still a few companies to report, ttm EPS is up slightly for the companies hat have already reported. - May 4, 2012 at 7:53 AM
- Scott Grannis said...
The household survey can be very volatile from month to month, so you have to be careful when drawing conclusions from it. I think the declines in the total number in recent months are in a sense payback for the gigantic increases in previous months.
Abstracting from the monthly volatility and the recent declines in the total, the private sector continues to grow and the public sector continues to shrink. Those are both healthy trends. - May 4, 2012 at 8:05 AM
- Richard said...
Hi Scott: I love your blog but am really confused by your interpretation of the Household Survey. It appears to me that we lost jobs in the Household Survey. Would you consider giving a primer of how to read that Survey in a future blog as I am obviously confused?
- May 4, 2012 at 8:35 AM
- Benjamin Cole said...
Still, at this rate of employment growth, the USA will never truly recover from the Great Bush jr. Recession and Financial Collapse.
Untold trillions of dollars of output are lost forever, and millions of Americans lost jobs for lengthy periods of time, and, in the case of guys in their 50s, perhaps forever.
Eyeballing the chart, do we get to 2020 before previous employment highs are reached?
Massive amounts of capacity are idle.
Dr. Perry just ran a chart (from Cleveland Fed) showing inflation expectations at all-time lows.
Gee, do you think the Fed could step up to the plate? - May 4, 2012 at 8:37 AM
- Benjamin Cole said...
The market says inflation is deader than Whitney Houston. - May 4, 2012 at 8:56 AM
- Donny Baseball said...
All the data that Dr. Perry and others point to to indicate a lack of inflation, are inconsistent with what I experience in reality. My food costs, transportation costs, taxes, fees, household maintenance costs, and business costs are ALL going UP at astonishing rates. I want to know what actual items are not inflating. There are almost none in my view, except maybe consumer electronics. - May 4, 2012 at 9:00 AM
- brodero said...
I have 7 markers which are a combination of various mathematical
calculations....they are taken from the establishment survey,household survey and the non seasonally adjusted jobless claims...only 1 is
flashing negative... - May 4, 2012 at 9:11 AM
- brodero said...
Here is one... follow the temporary
help services versus its 12 month
moving average.... - May 4, 2012 at 9:13 AM
- 4katzz said...
Why are there always revisions, twice or three times? This is just fuel for speculation, is it not?
Job gains where again sub-par; and trust me they will be again and again, until the Soc/Com government is removed from power.
Thank you, Mr Baseball, as we now shun the supermarket and shop daily at our local recycle center.
Those nightly dinners with electronic consumables are not tasty but sure are affordable.. - May 4, 2012 at 10:00 AM
- Benjamin Cole said...
Of course, no consumer or business has the exact same rate as reported by any price survey.
If you are a younger person buying a house today, especially in the Midwest, you are enjoying the lowest cost housing ever. If you are driving a fuel efficient car, and eating at home, your living costs are well under control.
If you are an older person, you probably find health insurance is a killer and getting worse every year, and your home or rents are not getting cheaper. Your larger car is eating gas.
Unit labor costs for businesses have been falling. Commercial rents of all kinds are very soft. Businesses are not facing inflation.
The three is too-soft demand and deflation. - May 4, 2012 at 10:04 AM
- Squire said...
You know we're in trouble when everyone defines the problem of a slow growth economy as slow growth. As in, the economy isn't growing enough because there isn't enough aggregate demand.
Seriously, there must be an actual problem behind slow growth. - May 4, 2012 at 12:09 PM
- Scott Grannis said...
Richard: re the Household Survey. The total # of nonagricultural jobs fell by 235K in April, but public sector jobs fell by even more (-442K), so that means private sector jobs rose by 207K. You can see the data here:
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t08.htm - May 4, 2012 at 12:17 PM
- 4katzz said...
The job reports shows a gain of 116,ooo short of the 160,000 needed just to keep up population growth.
The stock market is showing its displeasure with a loss of 1.75%.
This is not good news whatsoever! - May 4, 2012 at 12:24 PM
- Scott Grannis said...
Squire: the problem (from my supply side perspective is never "not enough aggregate demand." Demand is not what drives the economy. Supply (work, investment, risk-taking, production, innovation) is what delivers growth. Supply creates its own demand. We have a problem on the supply side of the economy. Probably because people worry that taxes and regulatory burdens will rise, among other worries. We need to shrink the public sector, broaden the tax base, and reduces marginal tax rates, especially on business.
- May 4, 2012 at 12:32 PM
- McKibbinUSA said...
The US employment to population ratio was up in April 2012 -- more at:
http://wjmc.blogspot.com/2012/05/us-employment-to-population-ratio.html - May 4, 2012 at 12:36 PM
- Benjamin Cole said...
Then why did Milton Friedman advise Japan to print more money, when in similar situation?
Was Milton Friedman mistaken?
Why did the Reagan White try to shift authority for monetary policy to the Oval Office in 1984, and away from Volcker, who they called "penurious"?
Friedman was pretty clear: When you have abundant unused capacity, and low inflation or deflation, then prating money is a great idea.
That said, I agree that we need to lower tax rates on productive individuals, and cut federal outlays to 18 percent of GDP, and balance the budget. Good luck with that, btw.
Japan actually removed many structural impediments in their economy--thought they still generally forbid immigration.
No dice---they are shrinking relative to the USA, even in manufacturing. - May 4, 2012 at 12:50 PM
- Scott Grannis said...
Re the parallels between US and Japan in re monetary policy. Japan has had demonstrably tight monetary policy for decades. The proof of this can be found in 1) the fact that Japan's consumer prices have not increased at all in the past 18 years, and 2) the yen has risen against every currency in the world.
US monetary policy is not tight because 1) all measures of inflation continue to rise, and 2) the dollar has been quite weak against most major currencies for the past 10 years.
If US monetary policy were too tight, we should be seeing a stronger dollar, higher swap spreads (because very tight monetary policy increases default risk), a much flatter or inverted yield curve, very low or negative inflation expectations (e.g., TIPS spreads), and very low or negative inflation. Yet we see none of these classic indicators of overly tight monetary policy. With money growth high by most measures, with the dollar very near its all-time lows, with 5-yr 5-yr forward inflation expectations at 2.7%, with 10-yr TIPS spreads at 2.2%, and with the 10-30 spread at historically steep levels, I see numerous reasons to conclude that the problem with the US economy has nothing to do with money being in scarce supply.
Benjamin: you are a broken record on this, and it would be nice if you came up with facts to back up your assertions that the Fed is starving the economy with tight money. - May 4, 2012 at 1:03 PM
- Mark said...
At 3,271,000 S.A continuing claims are their lowest in four years. The employment situation by any assessment the worst for a long time, but progressively improving.
- May 4, 2012 at 2:00 PM
- McKibbinUSA said...
Benjamin, I tend to empathize with your views, however the opportunity to create wealth is not likely to be monetary expansion/inflation driven in the coming years -- and yes, tight monetary policies will make it impossible for government to continue deficit spending, which means that government spending may have to be cut by upwards of 40% in order for austerity to achieve its goals -- enforcement of austerity in the US may have to occur at gunpoint in some regions and localities -- nevertheless, recent events around the world have convinced me to abandon hopes for monetary expansion and to instead, invest into the austerity environment for current earnings -- my plan is working by the way -- big picture, inflation will return down the road, it always does -- in the meantime, the first US stop of the global austerity rampage will be in California later this year and next...
- May 4, 2012 at 3:04 PM
- Benjamin Cole said...
Well, I am old enough to remember vinyl, and what a "broken record" means.
Is the Fed too tight?
Consider this: The Cleveland Fed reports the inflation expectations are for 1.47 percent for the next 10 years.
The ECB says it's only responsibility is price stability. Europe is imploding. The Bank of Japan has targeted zero inflation---Japan is imploding.
China's central bank is said to have a "revealed preference" for growth. China is booming.
Obviously, when central bankers target low inflation rates, they implode their economies, and for generations. When they target growth, you get growth.
I would rather have too much money than not enough.
With huge unused capacity and the lowest labor participation rates since 1949, the Fed is too tight. - May 4, 2012 at 8:52 PM
- Benjamin Cole said...
China has just eclipsed the USA as the largest market for BMWs (cars).
A bullish monetary policy works, as evidenced by China.
Japan and Europe are nearly imploding---tight money, is the reason.
It may not be what theory tells us, but the empirical results are what they are.
BMW sales peak fuelled by Chinese demand.
By Chris Bryant in Frankfurt
Sales of German-made premium vehicles set new records during the first quarter, defying weakness in the broader European car market and fears of a slowdown in fast-growing China.
BMW said it had sold more vehicles in March than in any month in its history, as strong Chinese sales, new models and demand for sports utility vehicles steered it to one of its best quarters yet.
BMW's Chinese sales increased by 37 per cent during that time, while Mercedes-Benz brand sales in China rose by 20 per cent.
As a result China overtook the US as BMW's largest single market in the first quarter, mirroring the experience of Audi which saw China become its largest single market last year. - May 4, 2012 at 9:17 PM
I think I've discovered Benjamin's ideal economic years: 1977-78.
Here's monthly job growth in 1977-78. The number after it is the inflation rate for that month (y-o-y I think):
Jan77: 244,000 5.22%
Feb77: 295,000 5.91%
Mar77: 404,000 6.44%
Apr77: 339,000 6.95%
May77: 359,000 6.73%
Jun77: 399,000 6.87%
Jul77: 348,000 6.83%
Aug77: 238,000 6.62%
Sep77: 458,000 6.60%
Oct77: 262,000 6.39%
Nov77: 379,000 6.72%
Dec77: 235,000 6.70%
Jan78: 187,000 6.84%
Feb78: 353,000 6.43%
Mar78: 513,000 6.55%
Apr78: 702,000(!!!) 6.50%
May78: 346,000 6.97%
Jun78: 442,000 7.41%
Jul78: 254,000 7.70%
Aug78: 276,000 7.84%
Sep78: 137,000 8.31%
Oct78: 336,000 8.93%
Nov78: 437,000 8.89%
Dec78: 283,000 9.02%
And here's real GDP growth. Had one down quarter (barely), the rest were good or even great.
At least they were coming out with some good music then. - May 4, 2012 at 10:13 PM
- McKibbinUSA said...
Hi Benjamin, I regret that the Federal Reserve is prepared to enforce the Main Street drought of capital at gunpoint (assuming the the Federal government continues to go along with austerity measures in the future) -- once the riots begin (as in Europe), the government will have no choice but to enforce law and order -- keep your eyes on California -- austerity in the US begins in California -- US austerity without California's lead is meaningless -- the indicators to watch for will be double digit percentage cuts in California state spending and/or double digit percentage increases in taxes -- austerity must be forced upon California for tight monetary policies to work -- looking forward, I would invest into the austerity trek -- as I said above, the global austerity rampage will hit California later this year or next -- thank you for the opportunity to comment.
- May 5, 2012 at 4:57 AM
- McKibbinUSA said...
@unknown, your data fits into to Scott would describe as the "horror years" of inflation between 1973 and 1982 -- chart here:
In truth, these were tough years for the US economy (I graduated from high school in 1973 and "lived" through these years and have first hand experiences with inflation that still trouble me) -- nevertheless, inflation did have some positive side effects that accompanied the negative -- still, the 1970's were difficult times, and the US was still "licking its wounds" from the Vietnam debacle and civil rights movement, which including episodes of serious political instability in cities and on college campuses across the US -- said another way, Washington feared political instability in the 1970's and chose to throw money at the problem.
Today, Washington does not yet fear political instability and economic scholasticism is now ruling the political stage -- once the riots begin however, society may force "real politik" back into Washington -- in the meantime, the central bankers have won the day and economic austerity measures are expanding across the southern flank of Europe, and will soon hit the US west coast -- how austerity will unfold in the US is still unknown -- however, watch for governors to call out their National Guards to enforce law and order in cities and on college campuses.
The arguments in favor of monetary expansion are irrelevant at this point -- the Main Street economic austerity is only just beginning in the US -- those without means should take cover... - May 5, 2012 at 5:21 AM
- 4katzz said...
KJAP, playing all your favorite hits oldies from the last twenty years, on Tight FM your only memorable monetary station - fighting recessions and deflation one hit at a time.
Hear this another OP on the recent job figures and what they really mean.
On the plus side of the report, is government job levels declined by 15,000.
Hans is now Jamin to the music. - May 5, 2012 at 6:11 AM
- 4katzz said...
Hat tip to, Mr Grannis, on his masterly call on retail gasoline!
I have been following an ETF (UGA) which tracks retail pricing...On 1.16.12, it stood a $50 and peeked at $59 several weeks ago; now it trades in the low $52.
Frankly, I was calling for much higher prices, until Independence Day. No one is ringing me anymore. - May 5, 2012 at 6:24 AM
- Benjamin Cole said...
Those numbers are amazing. We certainly could do with some real growth quarters like that.
Yes, I would tolerate higher rates of inflation to get there---though much as changed from the 1970s (but not some economists who still think we are in the 1970s).
We get much more growth per inflation unit than back then.
1. The US domestic labor has deunionized.
2. International trade has made for global markets in services, goods, and capital.
3. The Internet wipes out a lot of pricing power that existed pre-Internet.
4. We use much less of our capacity than back then.
When the Chicken Inflation Littles belatedly recognize just how uninflation-prone we are---well, they never will. Sanctimonius sermonettes about inflation are deep in the DNA of some gold-nut types.
And yes, the 1970s had terrific music, and the ugliest cars ever made. And fortran computer cards.
Yes, I had bell-bottom pants and a globe of hair on top of my head. I drove a flammable Ford Pinto. And even by the standards of the era, I managed to be a bad dresser. I think I had one tie that approached six inches in width. - May 5, 2012 at 12:35 PM
- Mark Holder said...
Why is it that most economists ignore the revisions each month? By the time the April report gets revised, the actual private sector jobs sill be in the 175K range or some 50% higher than originally reported.
For whatever reason, the market consistently sees the jobs report as weaker than reality b/c those revisions get ignored. Heck, the jobless claims report on Thu should've ruled the markets and much more than a backwards looking jobs report. - May 5, 2012 at 12:49 PM
- 4katzz said...
Mr Holder, I would rather bet on the market, than a group of economists..
We exited the market yesterday and are 100% cash...
Euroland is entering recessionland, which will slow world growth rates, as well as the developing zone.. - May 5, 2012 at 7:34 PM
- William said...
4katzz said...
"We exited the market yesterday (May 4th) and are 100% cash..."
Note: May 4, 2012 S&P 500 close 1369.10
We'll keep track of your comment 4katzz and bring it up for further discussion at a later date. - May 5, 2012 at 8:34 PM
- 4katzz said...
Mr Williams, thank you for your due considerations.
We are now waiting for the decision from the Supremes, regarding CommieCare and its effect on the job market and the health and wealth of his great nation.
Then our lonely eyes turns back to the crude oil market for direction, as well as the Central bank.
We believe the most salient date will be November the 6th, whether America has finally chosen to come to it's collective senses or if the gangrene continues to advance.
In the meanwhile, we suspect the country will remain suspended in limbo, as so often is the case when there is a lack of leadership or policy...
Hans - May 6, 2012 at 8:03 AM
- Benjamin Cole said...
If what the lefties and righties in the USA say now is true—that the Fed cannot sustain growth and inflation, even through QE—then I say 'Great!"
Then the Fed has license to buy Treasuries by the hundreds of billions of dollars, or even a few trillion.
We will deleverage the USA for our children.
And there will be no downside—perhaps no more growth than otherwise, but no more inflation either.
So, a steady program of $100 billion month in QE, mainly Treasury buying, is a win-win. Either it works, and we get a robust recovery, or it doesn't, and we deleverage the USA.
Of course, QE has to work, or we might as well say we have no idea how people and economics work. If the Fed every month buys $100 billion of Treasuries, the sellers will either have to buy other assets, or spend the money. So equities or property will go up (good) or spending (good). And government debt will go down (good).
The worst case scenario is not a sustainable scenario: That "loose money" will boost commodities prices. This may in fact happen—but only for a while. Unlike equities or property, there are live functioning commercial markets for commodities. If oil goes up, demand goes down. New alternatives and supplies come to market—especially if we have a growing economy, and there is money to invest, and profits to be found.
There is a huge self-contradition, btw, of many in the tight-money crowd. They say oil pieces cannot be manipulated, or go too high on the basis of speculation. Okay, good.
Then they say that sustained QE will cause oil prices to go up? How? Demand will not be that much greater. Supply will be the same.
In short they are saying speculation cannot push oil prices, unless speculators think loose money will pour into oil futures. So then we have to say speculators can boost oil prices.
Or not. - May 6, 2012 at 5:36 PM
- 4katzz said...
Benjamin said...
If what the lefties and righties in the USA say now is true—that the Fed cannot sustain growth and inflation, even through QE—then I say 'Great!"
Since when was the Leftocrats ever opposed to any intervention of the Central bank?
Hans - May 6, 2012 at 7:03 PM
- Benjamin Cole said...
Check your history--it was the Reagan White House that suggested power over the Fed be moved into the Oval Office. They called Volcker penurious.
When Romney wins, you will see a lot of righties call for the "country to get moving again," and that the Fed "should accommodate growth." They want Obama to lose (and I don't blame them).
The lefties today are saying the Fed is powerless, ergo we need huge federal deficits. The righties will say "deficits don't matter" when they get control of the White House again.
Happens every time.
You can vote for the socialists (Dems) or the national-socialists (GOP). - May 6, 2012 at 7:38 PM
- McKibbinUSA said...
Benjamin, you said, "You can vote for the socialists (Dems) or the national-socialists (GOP)." Exactly...
- May 7, 2012 at 6:09 AM
- 4katzz said...
Ben Jamin - "The lefties today are saying the Fed is powerless, ergo we need huge federal deficits. The righties will say "deficits don't matter" when they get control of the White House again."
Frankly, no one whats deficits, but for the Leftocrats, deficits come at the expense of their need to spend.
Most rightwingers, seek to reduce spending and in the process lower or eliminate deficits. The Raygun era is over and David Stockman is no longer in the White House.
The vast majority of conservative blogs and bloggers what to deal with out of control federal spending and the resulting aftermath of ongoing deficits and the ever growing burden of debt.
Those that do not, are not rigthwingers nor conservatives.!
Hans - May 7, 2012 at 8:22 AM
- McKibbinUSA said...
Hi Hans, I wish what you say were true -- I have little faith any either Democrats or Republicans -- honestly, neither does most of the nation at this point -- the party system is a legacy from the past, and the party system is not working today -- far from it -- I hope you are right, and that the Republicans bring some solution to the table after they return to power -- however, that's too much of a risk for my portfolio -- I plan to make money no matter who is in power...
- May 7, 2012 at 9:14 AM
- McKibbinUSA said...
PS: I have been watching US presidents first hand now for over 60 years -- none of the presidents over that period ever did much for me -- everything I've earned in my life has been despite the political system, not because of it -- by the way, I have lived half of my adult life overseas, and the situation is the same outside the US -- the world is a dangerous place, and we should all keep that thought front of mind...
- May 7, 2012 at 9:18 AM
- Benjamin Cole said...
I plan to vote for Romney. Why?
The Fed will ease up, and maybe we will see marginal traction on the federal deficit (unless Romney gets us into another war).
I did not expect Bush Jr. to get us into not one but two very long and expensive wars. He ridiculed "nation building" when first elected. Except for $4 trillion worth, I guess. Medicare Part B is more expensive the the entire Social Security program.
Bush jr., who favored military uniforms, also started the practice (embraced by Obama) of assassinating US citizens without trial or even detention. No wonder the Argentines say they think we are turning into another Banana Republic.
So now comes Romney....
PS Yes, conservative bloggers talk about cutting the budget---though they do not really know where to cut. Our rural economy is flooded with federal subsidies, and below is a list of the largest federal agencies, by employment.
Defense 3,200,000
Veterans Affairs 240,000
Homeland Security 200,000
Treasury 162,119
Justice 124,870
Health and Human Services 62,999
Interior 57,232
Commerce 41,711
State 18,000
Labor 16,818
Energy 14,000
And remember, it is Solyndra that is socialist energy policy, not ethanol. - May 7, 2012 at 10:10 AM
Friday's employment report was in fact on the side of poor. The key weakness was the decline in the labor force participation rate. As workers drop out there is less disposable income, that is, less aggregate demand. The payroll employment gain of 115K was poor as well. If labor force participation were not dropping so precipitously on trend, 115K new jobs each month would not be enough to keep up with population-driven labor force growth. In other words, the unemployment rate would be rising. Another weakness was the poor wage print, hourly earnings of non-supervisory personnel up only 3 cents. Wage gains are only a smidgen off their historic all-time low of 1.4% year over year set a few months ago. Another crucial aspect of weak aggregate demand.
As for the ADP report, the average miss over a given time period more than a few months is not what's important for many purposes. It's the absolute value of the monthly misses. If a number is big enough to move the bond market, it is important. The 6-month average absolute error of the unrevised date (the first prints) is 59K at present. Marginally enough to move the bond market. But as recently as October 2010 and for months before that, it was 162K and larger. Misses like this rock the market when the BLS releases the new month's data.
As for revisions to the data, these are not really problematic in the big picture. The most useful aspect of the monthly revisions is in comparing the latest monthly gain with revisions and net of revisions. The usefulness has to do with markets and the sense of where the economy is going. If there is no revision to prior months, a gain in the current month of 100K would cause the bond market to rally and the stock market to sink (as on Friday). Implication of such a low number being economic weakness. If however all else is the same, but the prior month is revised up by 300K, the reaction of the markets would be just the opposite. Markets always look at the overall impact of the new data including revisions, benchmarking against the prior data point of what was known 30 days ago.
As for Say's Law, I am supply-side as well. Everything possible policy-wise should be done to enhance the supply of goods and services. But demand matters equally, that is, aggregate demand is important. Aggregate demand was augmented by credit over the past few decades. That's why the economy grew faster than income gains. The reverse is happening now and it bodes very poor GDP growth going forward (max annual rate of around 2%). The economy would have collapsed in late-2008 without TARP. TARP prevented a bank run and permitted the flow of credit to be greater than otherwise. Credit essentially is a component of aggregate demand (though not as the textbooks, which don't capture true reality, define it). Even the otherwise abominable fiscal stimulus package was salubrious to aggregate demand for the short-run of perhaps the first couple years. Now it is payback time. Small businesses say poor sales are their biggest problem. They are surely willing to supply the product, but the demand isn't there. This is not to say that if the anti-business sentiment were lifted businesses would not start new projects they are currently holding off on because of the bad sentiment and uncertainty. They would borrow (credit), hire (thus add to aggregate income), and sales for other firms would improve. Is this supply-side or demand-side? Well it is both. But think hard. Could it have happened without the flow of new credit augmenting the income/sales revenue stream? No, other than in the trivial case of businesses having all the cash in the bank they need to start projects whenever they want to start them. But this is not the real world which is always credit constrained. - May 7, 2012 at 10:32 AM
- Benjamin Cole said...
You are right.
The Fed should go so sustained QE, buying Treasuries with a vengeance.
We have plenty of potential supply--indeed, supply lines are now global. There is no end of supply. (In this, we are very different from the 1970s).
Capital, services, goods easily cross borders. Labor did, until we closed the border (a huge structural impediment, btw). But we have no shortage of labor.
So the supply is there, and in spades---we just need way, way more demand.
I never thought i would have to convince GOP'ers to accept prosperity. - May 7, 2012 at 1:09 PM
- McKibbinUSA said...
Bejamin, the US Federal Reserve will not embark on QE until austerity is tested in California -- that will take at least another year or so -- watch for double-digit percentage California spending cuts, or double-digit percentage California tax increases -- either course of action will test California's mettle fpr austerity...
- May 7, 2012 at 1:48 PM
- Benjamin Cole said...
Dr. William:
Hard to say on the Fed. I hold out hope they will rev their engines after a Romney victory. If they tighten after Romney wins, look for the right-wing to talk about revamping the Fed and putting it into the Treasury Department.
It may be that QE will have to become a regular tool in monetary policy. - May 7, 2012 at 4:29 PM
- McKibbinUSA said...
Benjamin, time will tell, but California will come before additional quantitative easing -- neither Republicans nor Democrats in Washington have any desire to tackle California's deficit issues -- California is essentially, on her own -- the US Fed will not allow quantiative easing to be used to "bailout states," either directly or indirectly...
- May 7, 2012 at 7:16 PM
- 4katzz said...
Dr, McKibban, I am in agreement with your thoughts and that is why I never mention the word GOP and or Repubcos..
Over the past two or three years, I have taken a very dim view of the GOP...
We stopped our limited financial support of the national and state party..BTW, the state GOP is 15 months behind in rent!!
The moderate Whig party is only marginally better than the oppressive progressives...
I strongly suspect little will be done even with Mr. in office...
I have more confidence that the markets will act accordingly, than WDC...After all, they have everything they want and will by God not be deprived... - May 7, 2012 at 9:44 PM
- Benjamin Cole said...
Dr McK: Worth noting is that California sends about $50 billion a year more to DC than it gets back, every year.
CA subsidizes rinky-dink rural states/ Ir is socialism, but the kind the GOP likes. - May 8, 2012 at 8:14 AM
- Benjamin Cole said...
Market going down again.
The BoJ never relented, despite 20 years of failure.
The Fed? - May 8, 2012 at 9:35 AM
Somebody needs to be warned of this before people start going bonkers in July and August ...
Both Ford and Chrysler, so far, have announced they will suspend some of the usual early July shutdowns for model-year changes due to increased demand and need to crank out more cars. This happened last year and 2010 also.
What this means is ... initial jobless claims will take a dive in early July ... and then spike up in late July as a counter-reaction in the seasonal adjustments.
Since this will be the 3rd year in a row of this, hopefully the Labor Dept's seasonal adjustments will have incorporated this new phenomenon into their algorithm, but I suspect that will only be partially the case.
Ford joins Chrysler, cuts summer shutdown due to sales
Since two weeks includes the week of the 12th - which is the BLS survey week - this also means July's jobs number will probably be better than expected, but then August's will be worse than expected. - May 8, 2012 at 3:57 PM
- Bob said...
Benjamin, I enjoy your comments for the most part, but I think you show your prejudice with your wongful accusations about G. Bush Jr. Don't get me wrong, not a big fan of his, but there was no "Great Bush J. Recession and Financial Collapse."
The fact is that GDP grew, unemployment went down, the deficit shrank, and the Federal government enjoyed the largest tax receipts for an extenced period, in the history of the nation.
The financial collapse happened in his final year and was due to bad policy and a lack of Congressional regulatory oversight. Or some would say, outright corruption.
Bob - May 8, 2012 at 8:16 PM
- Rob said...
Where's Scott gone ?
I see that, once again, he has been horribly over-optimistic: this time with the supposed reversion to any kind of a norm in the US Treasuries to equities correllation. You noted, Scott, how there appeared to be the beginning of a correction about six weeks or two months ago ... perhaps you'd care to note that following that blip the yield on Treasuries has come crashing down to equal or possibly surpass its lowpoing of last December ?!
Sometimes these mean reversions just don't go according to plan, do they ? Sometimes there is a fundamental shift that effectively breaks the correlation ... investors are happy to buy US equities but they are equally happy to keep the rest of the money in the "safe haven" of treasuries, earning effectively nothing or less than nothing after inflation.
It's all about timing, Scott, when it comes to investing. And once again your timing has been woefully off. Damn that stuck-record of Pollyanna optimism, even if it is "relative" optimism as you keep saying. - May 9, 2012 at 5:35 AM
- Benjamin Cole said...
Well, I guess we disagree.
Bush jr. like all GOP presidents since Eisenhower, ran huge deficits, even when the GOP controlled both houses of Congress, and the economy was growing. Bush (Sr. or Jr.) never even submitted a balanced budget.
Bush committed us to not one but two lengthy and extremely expensive wars.
The financial system collapsed while he was President---and after he had nearly eight years on the watch.
Bush jr. has to take responsibility for that collapse. If he does not, then we cannot hold any US President responsible for anything.
If the economy tanks now, why blame Obama? If Vietnam was a mess, why blame LBJ? If inflation was horrible in the 1980s, why blame Carter, Or Reagan?
We had great times in the 1990s (and balanced budgets) but Clinton had nothing to do with it. He submitted balanced budgets to Congress, and worked with leaders there to get them passed, but obviously he was not responsible?
Look, a President has to take responsibility for what happens on his watch. The Bush jr. Presidency was a train wreck into a sewage treatment plant.
Obama may be little better, and I am sick of the anti-business rhetoric of the D-Party.
But don't tell me about Bush jr/ He was an abysmal failure.
L - May 9, 2012 at 8:00 AM
- 4katzz said...
Rob, just step up to the plate and swing at the ball...
Arguing with the umpire will only get you to the bench... - May 9, 2012 at 8:17 AM
- Rob said...
Ive "swung at the ball" which is precisely why im unhappy with the "umpire" who is in fact not an umpire. Im just venting because i put too much credence on his enthusiastic words. Have done so before and come unstuck. As he told me then, dont trust anything too much if its "free" advice. And i might add, never trust an economist to help you trade.
- May 9, 2012 at 9:40 AM
- 4katzz said...
Despite , Mr Grannis, legendary status within the ranks of the American Soothsayer Society, my reading hear, since I have joined, are that the preponderance of his prose are guard. (think Brinks)
Whether free or pay per view, the majority will likely have but an average result...
Even thou, Mr Grannis, is our shepherd, we as lames are allowed to stray...
Rob, we would value your opinions hear, as I assume you are above average in brain matter simply because you tune in the Calafia Beach Pundit.
Besides, if Mr Grannis, was correct 100% of the time, people would treat him as a God and he would no longer post.
Rob, all I can tell you, than I am not among one of this peers. - May 9, 2012 at 11:01 AM
- Scott Grannis said...
Having worked for many years as an economic consultant and forecaster, I learned long ago that being a forecaster is a miserable job. If your forecasts are correct and your clients make money by betting on them, then your clients are geniuses for having hired the right forecaster and having made the right decision. But if your forecasts are wrong and your clients lose money by betting on them, then you are a worthless pile of sh*t. It's a no-win situation, and that is why I feel free to make forecasts here because I am not charging for them.
I use this blog as good discipline for my own investment decisions, which I know will not always be correct. I can never expect to be right about everything, and so I never put all my chips on any one forecast. Deciding how much risk to take on any one bet is an art, and it depends very much on one's particular situation. Successful investors will draw on my knowledge and that of many others and come to their own conclusions about how and how much to bet on the future. - May 9, 2012 at 12:34 PM
- Bob said...
Well said Scott. Just know that I for one appreciate the time you take to mantain your blog. And am glad you are not affected by "nabobs of negativity".
As a retired MS broker I know full well the no win situation of forecasting and recommending. :)
Bob - May 9, 2012 at 1:26 PM
- Bob said...
Of course we can disagree. Obviously you don't like GWB. That's fine, that's your right. I'm not that fond of his presidency either, even though I think he is a decent man. But you mix facts and blend different situations together in order to come up with your reasons for disliking him.
For one the budget deficit decreased down to close to 200mil before the financial crisis. He did not run expanding deficits. He inherited an almost zero GDP economy from Clnton and managed to expand GDP by 2 trillion durng his presidency. The wars in Iraq and Afgan. did not break the economy and whether a supporter of those wars or not is an issue of policy and/or morality not a reason for economic failure.
I cannot for the life of me see how you can blame GWB for the financial collapse. It was a problem that started many years before with the Community Reinvestment Act and bullied through by Congress (Frank and Dodd) and Clinton. Bush, representing the executive branch warned on several occassions to Congress about the lack of oversight of Fannie and Freddie.
The GWB administration is guilty of missing some great opportunities to advance conservative causes, That is the failure of his presidency. GWB was a RINO.
Bob - May 9, 2012 at 1:43 PM
- 4katzz said...
I am honored to be a member of The Scott Grannis Fan Club.
I too, am grateful for all of your kind labors...For me, it is quite a challenge to absorb all of your information...
Moreover, I am hear to learn and expand my rather feeble mind.
Since we can not give any offerings, let me say, I love your work and in those immortal words of Nelson Mandela, "I love you."
May the Lord bless and keep you!
Hans - May 9, 2012 at 2:05 PM
- Rob said...
Unless i am a masochist, and perhaps I am, i too must value Scott's bloggy musings or I wouldnt keep reading him ! But i feel u are a little disingenuous Scott when u now distance yourself from being a forecaster. At other times u like to show us how u made X predictions and how a nig percentage were on the money. U have a healthy ego and like to state your case in pretty forceful terms. Not exactly a wallflower. Are u a leader or a follower ?
- May 9, 2012 at 4:54 PM
- Scott Grannis said...
Rob: making a living selling forecasts is what I don't like. Besides, if I were a flawless forecaster I would be a zillionaire and I wouldn't need to go through all the work necessary to make intelligent posts.
Plus, you don't necessarily need good forecasts to make money in the market. My London colleagues taught me the wisdom of "value over view." Sometimes, paying attention to value is much more rewarding than having a forecast or view about what is going to happen, because value can make up for bad forecasts.
But in any event, I do sometimes have very strong beliefs and views about what will happen. Many times I've suffered because my timing was off (I'm usually way too early), and sometimes I've just been careless and lost a lot of money (but I hope to avoid those mistakes in the future).
More often than not, I've found that sticking with what I really believe to be right does eventually pay off. Another colleague once called me a "high conviction investor," and I suppose that is an appropriate description of my investing style. I rarely try to trade the market, as I don't feel I have any special knowledge of all its ups and downs. If I can call the long term trend and stick with it through thick and then, then I end up being rewarded. - May 9, 2012 at 7:55 PM
- Rob said...
Fantastic reply Scott ! I may have my "issues" with you now and again but I really appreciate your responsiveness and effort to communicate where you're coming from. Keep up the good work and I'll keep trying to be less of a trader !!
- May 10, 2012 at 7:17 AM


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Hyun-Jin Ryu (0-1, 1.42) vs. Jeff Locke (0-0, -.--).
The Dodgers have held the Bucs scoreless over two games. Of course you gotta beat the bad teams, but let's not pretend we can trot out Greinke and Kershaw every series. So we turn to Ryu, who was steady but not overly impressive in his debut in blue. The Pirates are the only homerless team in the majors, so here's hoping the Dodgers pitching staff keeps it that way.
As for Locke, who was promoted to Pittsburgh's rotation after two years of spot-starting? The Dodgers are tied with the lowly Marlins for the second-lowest run total in the majors, so the (Jimmy) Key is: Start hitting with runners in scoring position already. Let's do this!
UPDATE: Sax just found out he's going to the game. He won't be too mobile during the game, but if you're going, leave a comment in this thread...


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Chad Billingsley (0-0, -.--) vs. Eric Stults (1-0, 0.00).
After yesterday's calamitous debut at Petco — "Wasteful at bat and sloppy on the mound," per Ken Gurnick — the Dodgers look to tone down the DPs and tone up the pitching.
Billingsley, who has a 2.62 career ERA against the Pads, somehow avoided Tommy John surgery due in part to an off-season regimen of platelet-rich plasma injections. He comes off the DL (displacing Tim Federowicz) to face old friend Stults, who threw five scoreless innings against the Mets last week.
The Dodgers went 11-7 against the Padres last season. If they want a winning record against them again, now would be a good time to start, don't you think?
UPDATE: Looking for the game on TV? Click here.
photo by Mark J. Terrill/AP


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Upon graduation from dental school, a dentist is awarded either a DDS or a DMD degree:
DDS - doctor of dental surgery
DMD - doctor of dental medicine
There is no difference between the two degrees. Both dentists have the same education and have completed the same curriculum requirements set by the American Dental Association's Commission on Dental Accreditation. The difference is wording. Some institutions award a DMD degree, while others award a DDS degree. Generally, three or more years of undergraduate college education plus four years of dental school is required to graduate and become a general dentist. State licensing boards accept either degree as equivalent, and both degrees allow licensed individuals to practice the same scope of general dentistry.
Additional postgraduate training is required to become a dental specialist. A patient often consults with a dental specialist after referral from his or her general dentist. Dental and oral health specialists include the following:
Pediatric dentist. A pediatric dentist specializes in oral healthcare for children from infancy through the teen years. In guiding children and teens through their dental growth and development, pediatric dentists often work closely with pediatricians, family healthcare providers, and other dental specialists in comprehensive medical and dental care.
Endodontist. Also called pulp specialists, endodontists have specialized training in root canal therapy. This branch of dentistry is concerned with the morphology, physiology, and pathology of the soft tissue on the interior of the tooth under both the enamel and the dentin (dental pulp) and periradicular tissues. This includes the prevention and treatment of diseases and injuries of the pulp and associated periradicular conditions.
Oral and maxillofacial surgeon. Oral and maxillofacial surgeons are orthopedic facial surgeons who treat a wide variety of dental problems. This includes the removal of impacted teeth and reconstructive facial surgery. This dental specialty also diagnoses and treats diseases, injuries, and defects involving both functional and esthetic aspects of the hard and soft tissues of the mouth and jaw. Many oral surgery training programs offer both an oral surgery certificate and a medical degree in the 6- to 7-year dual training program.
Oral pathologist. Oral pathologists diagnose and manage diseases of the mouth and jaw using clinical, microscopic, radiographic and other means.
Public health dentist. Public health dentists help prevent and control dental diseases on a community-wide basis. They give community-based dental health programs and provide dental health education.
Oral radiologist. Oral radiologists produce and interpret images produced by radiant energy used for the diagnosis and management of diseases of the mouth and jaw.
Orthodontist. Orthodontists specialize in the development, prevention, and correction of irregularities of the teeth, bite, and jaws. Orthodontists also have specialized training in facial abnormalities and disorders of the jaw.
Periodontist. Periodontists are responsible for the care and prevention of gum-related diseases, guided bone regeneration, and dental implants. It is the specialty of dentistry that includes the prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of diseases of the supporting and surrounding tissues of the teeth or their substitutes, and the maintenance of the health, function, and esthetics of these structures and tissues.
Prosthodontist. Prosthodontists have additional training and certification in the restoration and replacement of broken teeth or missing teeth with crowns, bridges, implants, or removable prosthetics (dentures). It is the branch of dentistry that also specializes in understanding the dynamics of the smile, preserving a healthy mouth, and creating tooth replacements. Prosthodontists often work closely with other members of the oral healthcare team in restoring natural teeth, replacing missing teeth, or developing artificial substitutes for damaged mouth and jaw tissues. In addition, prosthodontists also have specialized training in the following:
Post oral cancer reconstruction
Jaw joint problems (such as temporomandibular joint disorder)
Traumatic injuries of the mouth
Snoring and sleeping disorders


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Statement of Accreditation Status
as of May 25, 2024
Goshen College
1700 S. Main St.
Goshen, IN 46526
(574) 535-7000
The information on this page describes the accreditation relationship between this institution and the Higher Learning Commission. General information about the Commission and the accreditation process is provided at the end of this document. In addition, links to definitions are provided for many of the terms used.
Accreditation Information
Current status: Accredited
• Action Letter - Reaffirmation of Accreditation
Accreditation granted: |
Most recent reaffirmation of accreditation: 2014 - 2015
Next reaffirmation of accreditation: 2024 - 2025
Upcoming or In-Progress Reviews
Date | Event | Description |
11/18/2024: | Comprehensive Evaluation | |
Most Recent History With HLC
Date | Event | Description |
09/23/2019: | Assurance Review | Review Completed |
07/27/2015: | Comprehensive Evaluation | Reaffirm Accreditation |
General Institutional Information
This section provides brief, general information about the institution's organization and scope as self-reported by the institution through its annual Institutional Update to HLC.
The U.S. Department of Education publishes a College Scorecard (available at https://collegescorecard.ed.gov/), which allows students to search and compare colleges: their fields of study, costs, admissions, results, and more. Additional information can also be found at nces.ed.gov/collegenavigator/.
Please note: All institutions are required to represent themselves accurately and consistently to multiple agencies. However, some information about institutions may appear differently among agencies depending on the timing of the institution's updates to those agencies or those agencies' definitions or standards. Such agencies should be consulted directly for further information. For example, an institution's "Control" (or "Type") may be categorized differently by the U.S. Department of Education for other purposes under its standards.
Control: Private NFP
Degree programs (number in each category): Bachelors (49), Masters (4), Doctoral (1)
Certificate programs (number offered): 7
Off-Campus Activities (This listing was last updated: 06/06/2022.) The institution's accreditation includes courses and programs at these approved sites. (This includes sites that are active and inactive (meaning approved but currently without students):
In-State: | Campuses: | None. |
Additional Locations: | Elkhart General Hospital - Elkhart, Indiana Merry Lea Environmental Learning Center of Goshen College - Wolf Lake, Indiana |
Out-of-State: | Campuses: | None. | ||
Additional Locations: | Glen Oaks Community College - Centreville, Michigan |
Out-of-U.S.: | Campuses: | None. | ||
Additional Locations: | None. | |||
Location | Campuses | Additional Locations |
In-State: | None. | Elkhart General Hospital - Elkhart, Indiana Merry Lea Environmental Learning Center of Goshen College - Wolf Lake, Indiana |
Out-of-State: | None. | Glen Oaks Community College - Centreville, Michigan |
Out-of-U.S.: | None. | None. |
About HLC and Accreditation
The Higher Learning Commission (HLC) is an institutional accreditation agency that accredits degree-granting colleges and universities that are based in the United States.
Institutional accreditation validates the quality of an institution as a whole and evaluates multiple aspects of an institution, including its academic offerings, governance and administration, mission, finances, and resources. HLC's accreditation includes all degree levels as well as onsite and online course delivery. Institutions of higher education in the United States may also seek accreditation through specialized or programmatic accreditation agencies, which accredit programs, departments or schools within a college or university.
Institutions that HLC accredits are evaluated against its Criteria for Accreditation, a set of standards that institutions must meet to receive and/or maintain accredited status. HLC's Criteria for Accreditation reflect a set of Guiding Values.
The accreditation process is based on a system of peer review. Approximately 2,000 educators from institutions of higher education serve as HLC peer reviewers conducting accreditation evaluations for other institutions. They make recommendations to HLC's decision-making bodies, which take final action on institutional evaluations and are made up of both peer reviewers and public members.
Evaluation Process
HLC accreditation assures quality by verifying that an institution (1) meets threshold requirements and (2) is engaged in continuous improvement. In addition, all institutions are required to data annually in the Institutional Update, undergo annual monitoring of financial and non-financial indicators, and adhere to HLC policies and practices, including Assumed Practices and Obligations of Membership.
Decision Making
HLC's decision-making bodies evaluate and make decisions, called actions, on recommendations from peer review teams that review institutions for their compliance with HLC's Criteria for Accreditation and other requirements. The decision-making bodies are comprised of institutional representatives and public members. See Decision-Making Bodies and Processes for more information.
Public Information
HLC is committed to providing information to the public regarding accreditation decisions made regarding individual institutions.
Actions that are taken by HLC regarding an institution's accreditation status are disclosed to the public. In cases of reaffirming continued accreditation, placing an institution on or reviewing a sanction, or withdrawing accreditation, the Action Letter issued to the institution is made available for viewing on the institution's Statement of Accreditation Status, found by searching the institution's name through HLC's online directory. Public Disclosure Notices are also issued and posted in the directory in cases of sanction, assigning or removing an institutional designation, resignation of accreditation or candidacy, institutional closing or withdrawal of accreditation by HLC. The PDN provides the public with the most applicable information from the posted Action Letter. HLC decision-making outcomes also are summarized on the HLC Institutional Actions page.
Complaints Against Institutions
HLC has a formal complaint process, consisting of an online complaint form on the HLC website, for faculty, students and other parties to submit information regarding a member institution's potential non-compliance with HLC requirements. HLC does not accept complaints through mail, email or over the phone. As stated in HLC policy, the complaints process is designed to enable HLC to review, in a timely and fair manner, information that suggests potential substantive non-compliance with an institution's ability to meet HLC requirements.