text:
- Original article
- Open Access
Automatic stabilization and discretionary fiscal policy in the financial crisis
- Mathias Dolls1,
- Clemens Fuest2 and
- Andreas Peichl1Email author
© Dolls et al.; licensee Springer. 2012
- Received: 19 July 2012
- Accepted: 14 September 2012
- Published: 6 November 2012
This paper investigates the relationship between the magnitude of automatic stabilizers in the tax and transfer systems of 19 EU countries and the US, and discretionary fiscal stimulus packages passed by these countries during the recent economic crisis. In particular, we ask whether countries with larger automatic stabilizers have enacted smaller discretionary fiscal stimulus programs. Our results support this hypothesis. Our findings also suggest that social transfers, in particular the rather generous systems of unemployment insurance in Europe, play a key role for the stabilization of disposable incomes and explain a large part of the difference in automatic stabilizers between Europe and the US.
- Automatic stabilizer
- Economic crisis
- Taxes and benefits
- Fiscal policy
1 Introduction
In the debate on policy responses to the recent crisis, some countries have been criticized for being reluctant to enact fiscal stimulus programs in order to stabilize demand, in particular Germany. One reaction to this criticism was to point to the fact that automatic stabilizers in Germany are more important than in other countries, so that less discretionary action is required. This raises the general question of whether countries with weaker automatic stabilizers have taken more discretionary fiscal policy action to compensate for this.
The recent recession triggered by the financial crisis has had a severe impact on incomes and employment around the world and especially in Europe (OECD 2012). While it is uncontroversial that both the magnitude of the economic contraction during the crisis and its effects on labor markets were attenuated considerably by the work of automatic and discretionary stabilization, a large part of the resulting policy debate has focused on the size of discretionary fiscal policy plans and on rescue packages for banks. Much less attention has been devoted to the workings of automatic stabilizers. Automatic stabilizers are usually defined as those elements of fiscal policy which reduce tax burdens and increase public spending without discretionary government action. In particular, automatic stabilizers provide income replacement immediately when unemployment starts to rise. During the recent crisis, the tax and benefit system has acted as an automatic stabilizer on both the revenue as well as the expenditure side of the general government budget. Due to differences related to the structure and financing of the tax benefit system, the degree of automatic stabilization was bound to vary across countries.
Automatic stabilizers are widely seen to play a key role in providing income insurance for households and hence in stabilizing demand and output. The automatic action of tax-transfer policies was accompanied in most countries by discretionary action in the field of tax, social and labor market policy. This action included a broad range of measures such as (payroll) tax cuts, employment incentives, activation policies, higher benefits and increased transfers to low-income households. Therefore, especially for the recent crisis, it is important to assess the contribution of automatic stabilizers to the overall fiscal expansion and to compare their magnitude across countries. Understanding the relationship between automatic stabilizers and discretionary fiscal policy is crucial, because countries with larger automatic stabilizers have to rely less on discretionary fiscal stimulus packages, other things being equal. As final data on fiscal stimulus packages during the recent economic crisis are now available, it is possible to shed light on this relationship. This is the purpose of this paper.
We build on former work (see Dolls et al. 2012) which investigates the magnitude of automatic stabilizers inherent in the tax and transfer systems of 19 EU countries plus the US1. We relate these estimates of automatic stabilizers to new information on discretionary fiscal stimuli. Our empirical analysis points to a robust negative relationship between these two pillars of fiscal and social policy. This suggests that policy makers may indeed have taken into consideration the strength of automatic stabilizers when they decided how much to spend on discretionary fiscal policy packages in the crisis. These results are interesting because they shed new light on the factors determining the fiscal policy response of governments to the crisis. Our findings have important implications for the ongoing policy debate about institutional reforms following the sovereign debt crisis. While it is clear that balanced budgets need to be achieved in the medium-run, it is important to take into account the impact of reforms on automatic stabilizers. Also, our results support the argument that countries that have enacted smaller stimulus programs were countries with more automatic stabilizers. Of course, automatic stabilizers should not be the only determinant of discretionary programs. Other factors like the initial budgetary position or the size of the shock in the country under consideration have to be taken into account.
What is the contribution of this paper, relative to the existing literature? To the best of our knowledge, we are the first who analyze this relationship for the recent economic crisis with a direct measure for the magnitude of automatic stabilizers and up-to-date data on fiscal stimulus packages. The (IMF 2009), using the average ratio of revenue to GDP as an indirect measure for automatic stabilization, finds a negative relationship between government size and the size of the discretionary fiscal impulse2. Moreover, as their work was done at an early stage in the recession, they rely on projections for discretionary measures (see IMF (2009)). However, in (Dolls et al. 2012), we show that simple macro measures such as the tax revenue to GDP ratio only partially predict the amount of automatic stabilization. In a similar vein, the (OECD 2009) finds an inverse relationship between the size of fiscal packages and automatic stabilizers, but also uses projections for fiscal stimulus and a measure for automatic stabilization which is conceptually not comparable to ours as it is based on the cyclical sensitivity of the budget to the economic cycle (see Girouard and André 2005).
Two recent contributions investigate the cross-country variation in fiscal stimulus during the crisis ((Bénétrix and Lane 2010) and (Aaizenman and Jinjarak 2010)) and relate it to several explanatory variables (e.g. pre-crisis GDP per capita, trade openness, fiscal space), but do not account for the amount of automatic stabilization. Interestingly and in line with our hypothesis, (Auerbach 2009) points to the fact that automatic stabilizers have been historically low in the pre-crisis years 2003-7 in the U.S. and concludes that this low level of automatic stabilization is one potential explanation for policy decisions with regard to discretionary fiscal policy during the recent economic crisis in the US.
The rest of the paper is organized as follows. In Section 2, we describe the conceptual framework and the empirical approach. Section 3 presents the results for automatic stabilizers and section 4 the relationship with discretionary fiscal policy. Section 5 concludes.
2 Conceptual framework and empirical approach framework
2.1 Theoretical background
Economic stabilization is primarily associated with the ability of taxes and transfers to stabilize income and in consequence consumption automatically in the face of economic downturns. The stabilizing character of the tax and transfer system relies on a simple mechanism: In the presence of a negative shock to income, taxes net of transfers decline, so that the negative shock on disposable income is smaller than it would be in the absence of the tax and transfer system. Several components of government budgets are affected by the macroeconomic situation in ways that operate to smooth the business cycle, with progressive income taxes and out-of-work benefits being the most prominent example. Automatic stabilization might have effects not only on disposable income but also on GDP itself. If in a recession, fewer taxes are collected and more transfers are paid. This should support private incomes and damp adverse movements in aggregate demand. We can expect this stabilizing property to be stronger if the tax system is more progressive (van den Noord 2000).
The extent to which automatic stabilizers mitigate the impact of income shocks on household demand essentially depends on two factors. Firstly, the tax and transfer system determines the way in which a given shock to gross income translates into a change in disposable income. For instance, in the presence of a proportional income tax with a tax rate of 40%, a shock on gross income of one hundred Euros leads to a decline in disposable income of 60 Euros. In this case, the tax absorbs 40% of the shock to gross income. A progressive tax, in turn, would have a stronger stabilizing effect. The second factor is the link between current disposable income and current demand for goods and services. If the income shock is perceived as transitory and current demand depends on some concept of permanent income, and if households can borrow or use accumulated savings, their demand will not change. In this case, the impact of automatic stabilizers on current demand would be equal to zero. Things are different, though, if households were liquidity constrained. In this case, their current expenditures do depend on disposable income so that automatic stabilizers play a role. However, in this paper, we will concentrate on the first factor, the stabilization of disposable income aftershocks on gross income (see Dolls et al. 2012for the stabilization of household demand).
Computations are done according to the tax benefit rules which were in force before 2008 in order to avoid an endogeneity problem resulting from policy responses after the start of the crisis.
2.2 Microsimulation using TAXSIM and EUROMOD
We use microsimulation techniques to simulate taxes, benefits and disposable income under different scenarios for a representative micro-data sample of households. Simulation analysis allows conducting a controlled experiment by changing the parameters of interest while holding everything else constant. In particular, we are able to investigate the causal effects of different types of shocks on household disposable income and to avoid endogeneity problems when identifying the counterfactual effects (see Bourguignon and Spadaro (2006)). We can hence single out the role of automatic stabilization which is not possible in an ex-post evaluation (or with macro data) as it is not possible to disentangle the effects of automatic stabilizers, active fiscal and monetary policy and behavioral responses like changes in labor supply or benefit take-up.
Simulations are carried out using TAXSIM - the NBER's model for calculating liabilities under US Federal and State income tax laws from individual data - and EUROMOD, a static tax-benefit model for 19 EU countries, which was designed for comparative analysis4. The models can simulate most direct taxes and benefits except those based on previous contributions as this information is usually not available from the cross-sectional survey data used as input datasets. Information on these instruments is taken directly from the original data sources. Both models assume full benefit take-up and tax compliance, focusing on the intended effects of tax-benefit systems. These assumptions create an upwards bias on the automatic stabilizer measure – especially in countries where means-tested benefits are important (e.g., Ireland, UK), as take-up rates are typically much lower than for insurance benefits. The main stages of the simulations are the following. First, a representative micro-data sample and the according, pre-crisis tax-benefit rules (as of January 1st, 2008) are read into the model. Then for each tax and benefit instrument, the model constructs corresponding assessment units, ascertains which are eligible for that instrument and determines the amount of benefit or tax liability for each member of the unit. Finally, after all taxes and benefits in question are simulated, disposable income is calculated.
2.3 Scenarios
The existing literature on stabilization so far has concentrated on increases in earnings or gross incomes to examine the stabilizing impact of tax benefit systems. In the light of the recent economic crisis, there is more interest in a downturn scenario. Reinhart and Rogoff (2009) stress that recessions following a financial crisis have particularly severe effects on asset prices, output and unemployment. Therefore, we run two controlled experiments of macro shocks to income and employment. The first is a proportional decline in household gross income by 5% (income shock). This is the usual way of modeling shocks in simulation studies analyzing automatic stabilizers. However, economic downturns typically affect households asymmetrically, with some households losing their jobs and suffering a sharp decline in income and other households being much less affected, as wages are usually rigid in the short term. We therefore consider a second, idiosyncratic macro shock where some households become unemployed and therefore lose all their labor earnings (unemployment shock). In this scenario, the unemployment rate increases such that total household income decreases by 5% as well in order to make both scenarios as comparable as possible5.
Dolls et al. (2012) show that the two types of shocks and the resulting stabilization coefficients can be interpreted along the lines of average effective marginal tax rates (EMTR) for the whole tax benefit system at the intensive (proportional income shock) or extensive (unemployment shock) margin (see, e.g., Immvervoll 2004). Our measures of automatic stabilization differ from conventional EMTRs as we take into account income and payroll taxes as well as social benefits. In addition, instead of averaging individual EMTRs, the measure of automatic stabilization looks at the total change in market and disposable incomes.
The increase of the unemployment rate is modeled through reweighting of our samples6. The weights of the unemployed are increased while those of the employed with similar characteristics are decreased, i.e., in effect, a fraction of employed households is made unemployed. With this reweighting approach we control for several individual and household characteristics that determine the risk of becoming unemployed. The implicit assumption behind this approach is that the socio-demographic characteristics of the unemployed remain constant7.
3 Automatic stabilization
In this section, we report and discuss the most important results from (Dolls et al. 2012) which will be the input for the main analysis in the next section.
In the case of the unemployment shock, the difference between the EU and the US is larger. EU automatic stabilizers now absorb 47% of the shock (49% in the Euro zone) whereas the stabilization effect in the US is only 34%. This difference can be explained with the importance of out-of-work benefits which account for a large part of stabilization in Europe in this scenario. Benefits alone absorb 19% of the shock in Europe compared to just 7% in the US9.
3.1 Cross-country differences
In case of the unemployment shock, the stabilization coefficients are larger for the majority of countries. Again, the highest value emerges for Denmark (82%), followed by Sweden (68%), Germany (62%), Belgium (61%) and Luxembourg (59%). The relatively low value of stabilization from (unemployment) benefits in Finland compared to its neighboring Nordic countries might be surprising at a first glance but can be explained with the fact that Finland has the least generous unemployment benefits of the Nordic countries (see Aaberge et al. (2000)). Hungary (47%) is now at the EU average due to the relatively low level of unemployment benefits. At the other end of the spectrum, there are some countries with values below the US level of 34%. These include Estonia (23%), Italy (31%), and, to a lesser extent, Poland (33%).
When looking only at the personal income tax, it is surprising that the values for the US (federal and state level income tax combined) are higher than the EU average. To some extent, this qualifies the widespread view that tax progressivity is higher in Europe (e.g., Alesina and Glaeser (2004) or Piketty and Saez (2007)). Of course, this can be partly explained by the considerable heterogeneity within Europe. But still, only a few countries like Belgium, Germany and the Nordic countries have higher contributions of stabilization coming from the personal income tax.
It is a striking feature of our results that automatic stabilizers differ significantly within Europe. In particular, automatic stabilizers in Eastern and Southern European countries are much weaker than in the rest of Europe. One factor contributing to this is that government size is often positively correlated with per capita incomes, at least in Europe. The stabilization of disposable incomes will therefore be higher in high income countries, just as a side effect of a larger public sector.
4 Automatic stabilizers and discretionary fiscal policy during the crisis
During the crisis, policy-makers implemented a number of discretionary reforms to social protection systems. In most countries, social protection was increased with a number of measures targeted at families with children and households exposed to poverty risks. Other measures were aimed at maintaining or facilitating (re)employment. Another set of policies was geared at encouraging flexible working time, thus enhancing internal flexibility, and more in general at cutting labor costs.
We use up-to-date data on fiscal stimulus packages from the (IMF 2012) and the (OECD 2010) which slightly differ in terms of measurement of active fiscal policy. Conceptually, fiscal policy can be measured by changes in the actual budget balance which can be split up into a cyclical and a structural component. The total change in the budget balance reflects the effect of both automatic stabilizers and discretionary fiscal policy and does not allow us to compare the two pillars of fiscal policy see e.g. (Fatás and Mihov 2009).
Therefore, in the next step, we look at the structural balance in order to analyze the relationship between automatic and discretionary policies. We calculate the change in the structural balance between the pre-crisis year 2007 and the average for the years 2008-11 in order to focus on the endogenous response of fiscal policy to the economic crisis10. Higher values of this measure of active fiscal policy indicate larger fiscal packages. We also distinguish discretionary fiscal policies in the years 2008-2009 and 2010-2011 given that fiscal policy changed substantially in some countries in the course of the crisis. In (OECD 2010) the size of the fiscal packages is determined as the deviation of fiscal balances compared with a "no-crisis-related-action scenario". Moreover, detailed information on the composition of fiscal packages is provided. It is evident from both data sources that the cross-country variation in the size of fiscal stimulus measures is substantial. According to (OECD 2010) the U.S. have passed the largest fiscal package in our sample of countries amounting to 5.6% of GDP in 2008 with tax and spending measures being comparable in size (3.2% total tax measures vs. 2.4% spending measures)11.
While the negative correlation is visible for both sub-periods, it is much stronger (and hence also stronger than for the 2008-2011 average) for the first part of the crisis. Largest shifts from expansionary to contractionary fiscal policies can be observed for countries such as Greece or Ireland which received financial support from the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) under the condition of severe fiscal adjustment programs. In other countries fiscal policy was not expansionary (Austria, Germany, Italy) or contractionary (Hungary) even in the 2008-2009 period. Austerity measures recently implemented in many EU countries, in particular in Spain, Portugal or the UK, are only partly reflected in Figure 9b as they will persist to 2012 and beyond.
The negative correlation between automatic stabilizers and discretionary fiscal policy in 2008-2009 is confirmed when estimating multivariate regression equations controlling for various pre-determined variables. Controls include net interest payments, the debt/GDP ratio, two measures of fiscal space as suggested by (Aaizenman and Jinjarak 2010)12, the level of trade openness (defined as the ratio of imports and exports relative to GDP) and GDP per capita13. The first four regressors control for the budgetary situation in those countries under consideration before the start of the economic crisis14, trade openness and GDP per capita for other potentially important determinants of discretionary fiscal policy. All these controls are standard in this context (see, e.g. Bénétrix and Lane (2010)). All regressors are pre-determined since they are measured in the pre-crisis year 2007 except the two measures of fiscal space which are based on averages for the years 2000-2006.
Regression on change in structural balance – income stabilization income shock
Dependent variable: Change in str. balance 2007 to 2008-09
Income stabilization coefficient income shock
Net interest payments
Debt / GDP
Fiscal Space 1
Fiscal Space 2
GDP per capita
Regression on change in structural balance – income stabilization unempl shock
Dependent variable: Change in str. balance 2007 to 2008-09
Income stabilization coefficient unempl. shock
Net interest payments
Debt / GDP
Fiscal Space 1
Fiscal Space 2
GDP per capita
A further concern in the policy debate put forward by supporters of large and coordinated discretionary measures was that countries could limit the size of their programs at the expense of countries with more generous fiscal policy responses. The central factor behind this hypothesis is the degree of openness of an economy. The more open an economy is, i.e. the stronger the economic ties with other countries are, the more likely it is that a country gains from other countries' fiscal stimulus packages or, conversely, the more likely it is that own fiscal stimulus measures spill over to other countries. Hence, the idea behind this argument is that some countries might show a free-rider behavior and profit from spill-over effects of discretionary measures15. We find only weak evidence for this hypothesis. While the correlation between discretionary measures passed in 2008-2009 and trade openness is negative which is confirmed when we estimate a univariate regression between these two16 , the coefficient on openness becomes insignificant once our measure for automatic stabilization is included as can be seen in column (6) of Table 1. This is due to the fact that the correlation between openness and automatic stabilization is positive. All in all, our results suggest that policymakers did take into account the forces of automatic stabilizers when designing active fiscal policy measures to tackle the recent economic crisis.
5 Conclusions and policy implications
Fiscal policy has been a central tool for governments to counteract economic stagnation in the recent crisis, both in terms of automatic stabilization as well as discretionary fiscal policy. Many papers have investigated the effectiveness of stabilization policies in the recent recession, but little is known on the relationship between the two components of fiscal policy. The aim of this paper is to fill this gap.
Using up-to-date data on discretionary fiscal policy and two measures of automatic stabilization - income stabilization coefficients resulting from an income and an unemployment shock scenario - we find that countries with larger automatic stabilizers tended to enact smaller fiscal stimulus packages in the recent economic crisis. The US, for example, a country with rather small automatic stabilizers - both in an international perspective as well as in its own historical context - was the country with the largest fiscal stimulus package amounting to 5.6% of GDP. Given the low automatic stabilizers, however, the total effect of fiscal policy in the US has been more moderate than the size of the discretionary program might suggest. Of course, there are other determinants of discretionary fiscal policy. We find that the fiscal position of each country before the start of the crisis was a further important determinant for the size of discretionary fiscal stimulus packages.
Our results suggest that social protection systems, and in particular out-of-work benefits, play a key role for the stabilization of disposable incomes and explain a large part of the difference in automatic stabilizers between Europe and the US. This is confirmed by the decomposition of stabilization effects in our analysis. In the case of the unemployment shocks, benefits alone absorb 19% of the shock in Europe compared to just 7% in the US, whereas the stabilizing effect of income taxes (taking into account state taxes in the US as well) is similar. Note, however, that considerable heterogeneity exists within Europe.
Automatic stabilizers have the major advantage of providing income replacement immediately, i.e. when unemployment starts to rise and incomes fall. While means-tested income support is generally available as a basic social security net in most EU Member States, unemployment insurance systems are more exclusive as they do not protect all types of workers equally. As the extent of unemployment risks and the 'quality' of social protection provided to different socio-economic groups does not coincide, one can argue that in general those most affected are the least protected. Here, a discretionary expansion of benefit generosity or easing access to benefits can play a substantial role in reaction to crises. However, discretionary changes to benefit systems or the creation of new benefits may take some time and may be more difficult to administer and deliver, in particular if new groups are to be integrated or new benefits created – or if fiscal restrictions are considered. Therefore, it might be worth to redesign active and passive labor market policies in such a way that they automatically respond to cyclical variations as for instance the extended unemployment insurance in Canada and the US. How to optimally design such instruments in an automatic way provides an interesting avenue for future research.
A limitation of our analysis is that we only consider a rather small sample of European countries as well as the US. It would be interesting to extend this analysis also to developing countries.
1Previous research on automatic stabilization has mainly relied on macro data (e.g. Girouard and André (2005)). Exceptions based on micro data are (Auerbach and Feenberg 2000) and (Knieser and Ziliak 2002a, b) for the US and (Mabbett and Schelkle 2007) for the EU-15. As it is common in this literature, we have to assume the full take-up of social benefits for our simulations which might overestimate the automatic stabilizer measures in countries where non-take-up is important. In addition, we abstract from any (potential) behavioral responses as we are interested in separating the automatic response from discretionary and general equilibrium effects.
2See (Galí 1994), (Fatás and Mihov 2001) or (Debrun et al. 2008) for the positive association between government size and automatic stabilizers and their dampening effect on GDP volatility.
3We abstract from other taxes, in particular corporate income taxes. For an analysis of automatic stabilizers in the corporate tax system, see (Devereux and Fuest 2009) and (Buettner and Fuest 2010).
4For more information on TAXSIM see (Feenberg and Coutts 1993) or visit http://www.nber.org/taxsim/. For further information on EUROMOD see (Sutherland 2001, 2007). There are also country reports available with detailed information on the input data, the modeling and validation of each tax benefit system and the underlying data, see http://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/research/euromod. The tax-benefit systems included in the model have been validated against aggregated administrative statistics in order to make sure they reflect the initial baseline conditions in each country as well as national tax-benefit models (where available), and the robustness checked through numerous applications (see e.g. Bargain (2006)).
5Our scenarios can be seen as a conservative estimate of the expected impact of the recent crisis (see Reinhart and Rogoff (2009)) for effects of previous crises). The (qualitative) results are robust with respect to different sizes of the shocks. The results for the unemployment shock do not change much when we model it as an increase of the unemployment rate by 5 percentage points for each country. It would be further possible to derive more complicated scenarios with different shocks on different income sources or a combination of income and unemployment shock. However, this would only have an impact on the distribution of changes which are not relevant in the analysis of this paper. Therefore, we focus on these two simple scenarios in order to make our analysis as simple as possible. One should note, though, that our analysis is not a forecasting exercise. We do not aim at quantifying the exact effects of the recent economic crisis but of stylized scenarios in order to explore the build-in automatic stabilizers of existing pre-crisis tax-benefit systems. Conducting an ex-post analysis would include discretionary government reactions and behavioral responses (see, e.g., Aaberge et al. (2000) for an empirical ex-post analysis of a previous crisis in the Nordic countries) and we would not be able to identify the role of automatic stabilization.
6For the reweighting procedure, we follow the approach of Immvervoll et al. (2006), who have also simulated an increase in unemployment through reweighting of the sample. Their analysis focuses on changes in absolute and relative poverty rates after changes in the income distribution and the employment rate. The reweighting approach is the only feasible option for this scenario as EUROMOD does not simulate unemployment benefits for all countries (but takes it from the data).
7Cf. Deville and Särndal (1992) and DiNardo et al. (1996). This approach is equivalent to estimating probabilities of becoming unemployed (Bell and Blanchflower 2009) and then selecting the individuals with the highest probabilities when controlling for the same characteristics in the reweighting estimation (see Herault (2009)). One should note, however, that this leads to a downward bias of the short-run stabilization as unemployment benefits depend strongly on unemployment duration and would be higher for newly unemployed compared to long-term unemployed.
8Note that for the US the value of the stabilization coefficient for the federal income tax only is below 25% which is in line with the results of (Auerbach and Feenberg 2000).
9Note that we do not account for the Extended Benefits (EB) program in the US because it does not kick in automatically in all states. The EB program provides an additional 13 to 20 weeks of unemployment benefits to workers receiving unemployment insurance in states that meet certain thresholds in terms of their unemployment rates. This increased duration of unemployment benefits slightly increases the stabilization coefficient for the US and, thus, reduces the difference to the EU.
10For more detailed descriptions of the structural balance, see (Girouard and André 2005) for the OECD- and (Fedelino et al. 2009) for the IMF-methodology. A discussion of this concept can be found in (Blanchard 1993) and (Mohr and Morris 2007). In short, there are several conceptual difficulties in separating the cyclical component of fiscal policy from structural movements which requires strong assumptions on potential output and cyclical elasticities of different fiscal variables. These methodological problems can lead to sizeable ex-post revisions of structural balances. Note that the results presented in this section do not change if we base our analysis on (IMF 2011).
11Note that a portion of the U.S. stimulus package was devoted to its states which all have some form of balanced budget rules. Hence, the purpose of this policy was to avoid weakening automatic stabilizers at this lower level of government.
12Aaizenman and Jinjarak (2010) define the first measure (fiscal space 1) as the size of public debt relative to tax revenue and the second one (fiscal space 2) as the size of government deficit relative to tax revenue.
13Information on net interest payments, debt/GDP ratio and GDP per capita is from (IMF 2012) and the level of trade openness is taken from (Heston et al. 2006).
14The negative effects of a fiscal expansion for countries with unsustainable fiscal positions have already been emphasized at an early stage in the recession, see Spilimbergo et al. (2008).
15In that sense, a fiscal stimulus program can be seen as a positive externality since potential positive effects are not limited to the country of origin.
16The univariate regression is not shown separately, but available from the authors upon request.
This paper uses EUROMOD D21 and TAXSIM v9. EUROMOD and TAXSIM are continually being improved and updated and the results presented here represent the best available at the time of writing. Our version of TAXSIM is based on the Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF) by the Federal Reserve Board. EUROMOD relies on micro-data from 17 different sources for 19 countries. These are ECHP and EU-SILC (Eurostat), Austrian version of ECHP (Statistik Austria); PSBH (University of Liège and University of Antwerp); Estonian HBS (Statistics Estonia); Income Distribution Survey (Statistics Finland); EBF (INSEE); GSOEP (DIW Berlin); Greek HBS (National Statistical Service of Greece); Living in Ireland Survey (ESRI); SHIW (Bank of Italy); PSELL-2 (CEPS/INSTEAD); SEP (Statistics Netherlands); Polish HBS (Warsaw University); Slovenian HBS and Personal Income Tax database (Statistical Office of Slovenia); Income Distribution Survey (Statistics Sweden); and the FES (UK ONS through the Data Archive). Material from the FES is Crown Copyright and is used by permission. Neither the ONS nor the Data Archive bears any responsibility for the analysis or interpretation of the data reported here. An equivalent disclaimer applies for all other data sources and their respective providers. This paper is partly based on work carried out during Peichl's visit to ECASS at ISER, University of Essex, supported by the EU Improving Human Potential Programme. Peichl is grateful for financial support by Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft DFG (PE1675). Fuest acknowledges financial support from the ESRC (Grant No RES-060-25-0033). We are grateful to Daniel Feenberg for granting us access to NBER's TAXSIM and helping us with our simulations. We are indebted to all past and current members of the EUROMOD consortium for the construction and development of EUROMOD. The usual disclaimer applies.
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This article is published under license to BioMed Central Ltd. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.


text: Only the narrator recognizes Mr. Myers as a wizard; only he can see that the new neighbor is not grilling hot dogs but cooking up a magic potion, that he has huge, fantastic pets, can summon up a tornado to rid himself of unwelcome visitors, and--as substitute teacher--presides over a wonderfully magical day. Finally, it's suggested that the magic is in the books Myers shares with the boy; but kids will be most interested in Kellogg's imaginative rendition of his extravagant fantasies about his neighbor--which run from pirates and the Cheshire Cat to dinosaurs and spacecraft. Lightweight, but fun. (Picture book. 5-9)

subset: commoncrawl


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The Zellers Ghost
In 1956, after the closure of Dufferin Park Racetrack, Dufferin Plaza was born just south of Bloor Street (and in-between three of my alma maters), bringing the suburban strip-mall experience to the west end. By the time it was covered over in 1975, major tenants included Family Fair department store, Bad Boy furniture, Loblaws, Brewers Retail, Dairy Queen (to me anyway), and a bi-level Zellers. The subsequent Dufferin Mall brought Woolco and Horizon department stores to the area, cementing the centre as a major retail force, surprisingly without decimating the adjacent retail landscape on Bloor Street.
Zellers survived until after the 1994 conversion of Woolco to Wal-Mart, but eventually they raised the white flag and left the mall. Nearby locations at the Galleria at Dufferin and Dupont as well as Bloor and Dundas (both former Towers locations) were better able to serve the area, without a monster operation like Wal-Mart a mere 100 paces away.
Despite their departure, and subdivision of the space to a health club in the basement and a clothing store at mall level, the ghost of the old store remains, near the rear entrance to the store, at the end of Cobourg Street, where this photo was taken on January 13, 2011.


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Patterns and Practices Summit - Redmond WA - Nov 3-7, 2008
The next patterns & practices Summit takes place November 3 -7 in the Kodiak Room at the Microsoft Conference Center at Microsoft's main campus in Redmond, Washington.
Keynote presentations by:
Kent Beck, David Treadwell, Scott Guthrie, Jeff Teper,& Pat Helland
Read about the event here: http://www.pnpsummit.com/west2008/west2008.aspx
There's a very nice sounding session on Agile Best Practices listed, sounds like it could be fun..
Agile Development Case Study using Best Practices - Gabe Brown & Adam Meltzer
How would your team double code quality, reduce defects by 80%, reduce our estimation error by 25% (and actually know what it was) and reliability ship working software with only a small increase in development time? Come discover how our team did exactly that by leveraging Microsoft?s Engineering Excellence best practices. We will discuss the best practices used, the pros and cons of each and the empirical data on how they contributed to our product overall.


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Dallas News / SEARCH: 11602 Massive Mt., San Antonio Helotes, TX 78023
- 3 beds
- 2 baths
- $304,450 price
- 1050512 mls id
- Square Feet: 2,459 sqft
- Neighborhood: Sanctuary
Listing Description
Gourmet Island Kitchen
Walk-In Closets in All Bedrooms
Covered Patio
- New Construction Yes
Subdivision: Sanctuary
- Price Range $286.4K - $399.9K
- Sqft Range 2,011 - 3,432
- Subdivision StatusActive
Subdivision Description
Balanced between the city and the country, this Texas Hill Country community may just be the perfect escape. Rolling hills form a picturesque backdrop to quiet community life at the aptly named Sanctuary. It's a neighborhood where everyone has room to breathe, yet the city's restaurants, nightlife and culture are all close enough to enjoy. Here, together, we'll create a home that's a true reflection of your style and your passions. Our design experts collaborate with you to weave your vision into a professional design solution. Whether inspired by the country, the city or anywhere in between, at Sanctuary, you'll love the possibilities.
11602 Massive Mt., San Antonio Helotes, TX
Dallas News Real Estate Powered by Placester


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Timber Sheds
Gallery and Prices at the bottom of the page
Our superb range of timber garden sheds are second to none. We use the highest quality materials and fixings for every timber building we manufacture.
All timber buildings are made to order so you get to choose door and window positioning along with style of roof weather it be an apex or pent style.
Check out the high specifications below:
ex 3″x 1½" Redwood Tanalised, Making a Very Strong More Than Substantiol frame construction.
ex 4"x1½" Framing is used when the buildings get upto 16′ long and over.
All Framing screwed together for extra strength, not gun nailed.
ex 125mm x 19mm Redwood Tanalised TGV Floor Boards onto 3″x 1½" Redwood Tanalised Joists onto 3″x 1½" Redwood Tanalised Floor Bearers Making a Very Strong Rigid Floor.
Option to upgrade to ex 125mm x 25mm Redwood Vac Vac Treated Flooring finished with three coats of Osmo floor oil
Our own pattern ex 100mm x 25mm (planed to 20mm thick) Redwood Log Clad with a 10mm tongue & groove giving extra weather protection to housing spec! All External Timber Nailed with Stainless Steel Nails (meaning nail heads won't go rusty & leave dark stain marks in cladding)
4mm Clear Toughened Safety Glass.
Unsorted (High Grade) Redwood Vac Vac treated Framed Ledged Braced Batten Door (a lot stronger & won't twist or drop like most other shed doors!) Hung on Three 100mm Satin Stainless Steel Ball Bearing Butt Hinges Held Open with a Satin Chrome Cabin Hook, Security: Leading Brand Name Union 5 lever BS Mortice lock Satin Stainless Steel faced, Satin chrome Lever Scroll Handles All In All Making a Very Secure Shed for your Contents.
Standard door width is 2′ 9″. We recommend using a 2′ 6″ door if going in the 5′ side! (also the option of double doors is available)
All timber in Roof Tanalised, boarded same as Floor, Felted with Anderson heavy duty Green Mineral Felt, Sealed with Sealant on all Overlapping Joints! Felt Slates & Cedar Shingles option available but will require a steeper pitched roof! (Felt Slates Standard on the Larger Trussed Roofed Sheds) All Buildings have a roofing Underlay fitted for increased weather protection.
We also increase the pitch of the roof more than standard on the larger sheds.
All timber buildings come with one coat of oil based Sadolin preservative followed by two coats of stain with any colour of your choice using Sikkens Novatech 2 coat system for a semi-gloss finish.
Sikkens Features:
- Highly durable
- Excellent absorption into the surface
- Highly translucent to bring out the beauty of the wood grain
- One coat maintenance.
You can also add a workbench, shelves or fit guttering to your garden shed. A free site visit is recommended.
All Timber Buildings are Made to Order, Built to Customer Spec and are competitively priced too.
Prices Include Delivery and Erected
Timber Garden Shed–6′ x 5′ £820
Timber Garden Shed–7′ x 5′ £850
Timber Garden Shed–8′ x 4′ £940
Timber Garden Shed–8′ x 5′ £990
Timber Garden Shed–8′ x 6′ £1070
Timber Garden Shed–7′ x 7′ £1100
Timber Garden Shed–8′ x 8′ £1240
Timber Garden Shed–9′ x 6′ £1105
Timber Garden Shed–9′ x 7′ £1180
Timber Garden Shed–10′ x 6′ £1145
Timber Garden Shed–14′ x 6′ £1770
Timber Garden Shed–10′ x 7′ £1250
Timber Garden Shed–9′ x 8′ £1300
Timber Garden Shed–10′ x 8′ £1350
Timber Garden Shed–12′ x 8′ £1645
Timber Garden Shed–14′ x 8′ £1900
Timber Garden Shed–14′ x 9′ £2150
Timber Garden Shed–10′ x 10′ £1840
Timber Garden Shed–12′ x 10′ £2130
Timber Garden Shed–14′ x 10′ £2400
For more information, place an order, or to arrange a site visit please get in touch.
Hesket Timber Buildings and Joinery for General & Bespoke Joinery, Garden Offices, Garden Rooms, Gazebos, Greenhouses, Garages,Stables, Summerhouses, Sheds, Driveway Gates. Covering all of Cumbria, Dumfries and Galloway, Northumbria, Lancashire and Nationwide


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Artist in action
June 22, 2010
Though Preston Jackson is known nationwide for his art and has pieces displayed in galleries throughout the Midwest, he could not have found a better home than Bradley University.
"I thought Bradley was a perfect fit and the students that I've worked with so far have been wonderful," says Jackson, an artist-in-residence through the Inland Visual Studies Center. "Bradley is a very relaxed campus, but it has a great atmosphere for learning."
Jackson began working as an artist-in-residence in January at the Inland Visual Studies Center, a program dedicated to studying the Midwestern influences on visual art, culture and music. He continues to serve as a sculpture professor emeritus at the Art Institute in Chicago, where he's taught for more than two decades.
He mentors students, allows them to watch as he creates his pieces and critiques their work. Students learn about working with different materials, conveying different artistic concepts and exploring diverse subject matter as they watch Jackson create his art.
"Bradley is a place to recapture the intimacy and closeness of working with students that come from multiple interests," Jackson says.
Jackson works primarily with sculptures, castings and painting. He currently is creating miniature bronze sculptures and large-scale paintings themed around humans' search for freedom and truth. His contemporary creations draw upon his Midwestern roots, though not intentionally.
"I sort of let it flow," Jackson says. "I let it come out through my history and who I am personally. I guess you paint who you are."
Both Bradley students and faculty members have benefited from Jackson's residency, says Dr. Paul Krainak, chairman of the art department. Students don't often see an artist physically working on pieces because faculty members dedicate their time to teaching and often have off-campus studios.
"He doesn't explicitly teach students but works in the presence of students, collaborates with students and students take him on as a mentor," Krainak says. "It's a way for the students to benefit to see what kind of decisions artists make because they rarely see the faculty work in their studios."
Senior sculpture major Rich Welsh said students appreciate learning from a real-life artist who is personable yet frank about the difficulties with breaking into the industry.
"It's so great to be able to interact with someone who knows what they're doing," Welsh said. "He pushes us to really process what we are trying to get out of our art."
Of course, praise and validation from a renowned artist don't hurt either.
"It's so awesome to hear he likes what we're doing," Welsh said. "And he never really tells you you're wrong, either. He'll suggest things that really help."
Jackson received his undergraduate degree from Southern Illinois University and his Master of Fine Arts from the University of Illinois. He owns the Raven Gallery, home to the Contemporary Art Center of Peoria, on the city's riverfront, and also has a studio in Chicago.
Jackson has created sculptures for the city of Chicago, the city of Peoria, the Peoria Civic Center, Chicago's ESPN Zone, Northwestern University, the Brookgreen Gardens in South Carolina and the Champaign Public Library, among others. He has also been awarded the Rhodell Owens Award, given to a Peoria resident for outstanding achievements in community beautification and enhancement.
Several of his collections are held at Purdue University, the University of Illinois, Lakeview Museum, the Illinois State Museum in Springfield, the African American Museum of Iowa, the University of Wisconsin at Milwaukee and the Harold Washington Public Library in Chicago.


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His first night he lost his arm, but was able to pick up a replacement when attacked some girl for her brain. Yum! Now he was after hers. A month ago, Leona had been dreaming of saying "I do" with her boyfriend Kenny, now she just looked forward to sending him back to the grave.
They were going to have the perfect life, so she thought. Kenny had just landed a job, at the chemical plant after graduation and then proposed. They were going to save up and get married next summer. That was before the accident. Leona didn't know what happened. She had an 'episode' and blacked out. Next thing she remembered was waking up to the car wrapped around a tree and the two of them lying in a ditch.
The friction of shuffling feet approaching could be heard from a mile away, time to get out of town or become lunch. On her way out-of-town, Leona heard an explosion.
"The zombie mob charged into chemical plant!" a weary nurse shouted over the continuing explosions when she met up with Leona at the edge of town. "They must have wiped out that whole side of town."
"What were they doing at the chemical plant?" Leona asked.
"Looking for brains to eat! They had some young-looking guy leading them."
"Come on this way!" Leona encouraged the nurse to join her, wonder if it was Kenny leading the attack on the chemical plant.
"I'm Nell. I'm your nurse."
That was not the way to go. Nell and Leona ran straight into a handful of hungry zombies. Nell was fantastic at zombie combat, she must have taken Krav Maga on her days off. Leona was still struggling with her first zombie as Nell was finishing off her fourth. At the last-minute Leona took off the zombie's head narrowly avoiding becoming his dinner. She made a break for it, landing in his arms.
"It's time we real about this, Kenny. You can't keep telling me you love me and then try to eat my brain."
"You have no idea what you did to me."
"What are you talking about?"
"You did this to me, Leona."
"No…I…" she started, as Nell finished with a well placed kick.
"Run!" Nell urged her. They ran for what seemed like forever. "It is possible some other survivors are hiding out at the old army fort. We should head there, Leona." Nell urged her on. "Here, take your pill."
Leona came to in a cabin surrounded by trees, they had never made it to the fort, but she could hear Nell's humming outside the cabin door as she chopped firewood. Leona's head was fuzzy, she felt like puking as she wandered outside to find Nell. What was going on?! The last time she saw her boyfriend he was leading a zombie mob, "Where was Nell!? What happened to the zombies?" Leona mused in the eerie silence of the woods. "What happened to her boyfriend?"
"We must be close to Berryhill. I've been camping around here on vacation before." Nell said interrupting Leona's thoughts and startling the already fragile girl.
"I'll go out looking for some food tomorrow morning." said as she stroke Leona's arm trying to comfort Leona. Nell led Leona back to the bed in the cabin. "Here, take your pill." Leona was quick to succumb to Nell's medicine.
Nell went out searching for food the next morning, but didn't return that night, nor the next morning, or the morning after that. On the third day, Leona, still fuzzy, but fearing the worse set out on her own to find Nell.
She made her way into Berryhill. It was deserted. The zombies must have been here. She prayed they had moved on to the next town. No such luck. Murmuring and shuffling feet startled Leona into action. Unfamiliar with the town, she just ran and ran, left , left, right , left again. Leona was totally lost now. A silent, sterile building stood before her with a sign reading 'Berryhill Mental Hospital.' She entered hoping to find a place to hide once more. The zombies followed silently. Leona had successfully hid from the zombie mob led by her boyfriend for nearly a week now, only to now find herself surrounded and trapped.
"I'll have your brain for what you did to me, Leona!" the long hallway echoed.
She tried to open the doors as she ran looking for a place to hide, but they were all locked. Exhausted and out of breath, she reached the end of the hall. Only one more door to try as the zombies closed in.
It opened.
"The patient is awake, doctor."
"Good, let's see if she'll cooperate."
—–788 words—–
And our final haunting is inspired by the tried and true zombies. This is a longer piece for you today, something that I've been working on and editing for awhile-a work in progress. I hope you've enjoyed these A to Z haunting as much as I have.


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Well here is our little heartkid Chelsea. FULL to the brim with life, spirit, cheekiness, hungriness, creativeness, feistiness and lots of other 'nesses too!
Its been such a long while since I have updated this Heartkid family blog so I thought I would finish with one last quick post and then formally close it off!
As many of you might recall, Chelsea had her last open heart surgery in Melbourne RCH when she was 9 months old. At that time her cardiac surgeon [the lovely Frenchman Yves] said that he felt it was a good repair. He said there was a small leakage with one of her valves but that she could in fact be good for a little while or even a long while.
I think it was around 12 months that she came off her medications and I can report that to this day she is medication free.
At each new annual cardiac appointment she's been reassessed and an update on the likelihood of surgery for the future has been discussed. At 12 months it looked as though we may not have to worry about surgery until around age 5 or so.
At 2 years we were told that she could actually be fine until her mid to late teens without surgery.
At 3 years we were given the news that in fact she may not ever need any futher surgery! Can you imagine receiving that kind of news? To think when we were first diagnosed - in utero - that all I wanted was to just keep her, no matter what condition, I already loved her so much. Wow, what a road we have travelled!
These days, we still have ongoing appointments for Chelsea in a few areas. I booked her in for a speech assessment as her speeh was different to that of her twin but turns out, it was in fact just different. She was assessed as having completely normal speech development for her age. These days she amazes us with huge words popped into her sentences. She's really quite a character.
As well as cardiology, we have ongoing checkups with an Opthalmologist for her eyes. Cheslea has Duane's Syndrome which means she's either missing or has a damaged optic nerve to the side of one of her eyes. Hers is a mild case, which we are thankful for but they are keeping a close eye [pardon the pun!] on her to make she continues to develop good straight forward vision. She will most likely need glasses at some point and will need to sit front centre in the classroom in the future.
We have also been investigating the outfall from Chelsea's bowel surgery when she was diagnosed with necrotizing enterocolitis at 5 days old, which to be blunt, nearly killed her. She survived obviously but did need a large resection of her intestines, also in the first year of her life. So after being on the cardiologist/ paediatrician / WCH gastroenterology circuit for over 2 years, we have been going through some testing and looking at coeliac disease, short bowel syndrome, lactose intolerance etc etc... not fun! But I'd certainly like to get it all resolved by the time she starts kindy next year. Poor little darling, as if she hasn't enough to deal with.
Anyway, I wanted to mention some of these things for families who may have found my Heartkids blog as often babies with heart complications have other stuff to deal with also. All minor in comparison but nevertheless, issues to work though & deal with on a daily basis.
But as Chelsea will be starting kindy next year and I don't necessarily want to discuss the nitty gritty of all her health details, she deserves her privacy too, I have decided to formally finish & close this blog. I have transferred most of the history so families googling heartkids etc will still find the information on my other blog which is all about:
- family life in general
- my arty stuff, technology, Blythe collecting etc
- heartkid updates should there be further developments on surgery/treatment
You can find my personal blog, "Something for Kate" here.
And to finish off, here's one last fundraiser to share on this blog...
For the month of September 2011, I will be donating $10 from every print sold, to Heartkids for their Cuppa for Heartkids campaign.
Here's my print!
You can also see our tiny Chelsea is one of the faces on Heartkids Australia's page promoting Cuppa For Heartkids right now. See her beaming smile as she proudly shows off her zipper at 9months after her second open heart surgery! She's now 3 and running around like you wouldn't believe. Smiley, cheeky & naughty. Love love love her spirit!
You can read her humble beginnings on Heartkids Australia website, 3rd story down.
The print can be purchased through my online ETSY store here!
Be quick, only 5 days left!!
I want to thank all the families that have supported us & those that found & read this blog because they too have their own heartkid journey.
We are so grateful that all our prayers have been answered and I wish from the bottom of my heart that all those little precious heartkids from here and into the future will have the best possible outcomes.
Love & strength,
Kate xo


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Paper Books Bought (Click for book page)
Kindle Books Bought (Click for Kindle book page)
Browse the items (besides books) others have bought. You can click on links or images below to find out more (not "Shop now," unless you really want to buy it now. 😉 )
Home & Kitchen
Home & Garden
Health and Personal Care
MP3, CD & other Audio Choices
Cell Phones & Accessories
Computers, tablets, etc. & accessories
Other Interesting Things Our Visitors Bought
Grocery & Gourmet Food
Kid stuff stuff
Clothing, Shoes & Jewelry


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Preemie Blog Advice
Interview with Nicole Zimmerman, by Allison Martin
Looking for support? Considering a preemie blog? A preemie parent provides advice and encouragement on starting a preemie blog in this helpful article.
Why blog about your preemie? Was the preemie blog rewarding?
We started blogging for a few reasons. The birth of the twins was overwhelming to us. I was having a normal, uneventful pregnancy and their early birth was a huge shock. They were so early and so small and had so many medical issues that our friends and family wanted to help. However, we just didn't have the strength to field all the phone calls and give updates to everyone every day. The social worker told us about Carepages and it seemed like blogging was a good way to communicate with a lot of people and only have to give potentially painful news one time. I've always been more comfortable with the written word than the spoken word and blogging gave me the opportunity to think about what I was feeling and get it down on paper. It made me feel better and gave me something to look forward to. I think the twins will enjoy reading it when they get older.
How can preemie parents get started with a blog?
Getting started with blogging was not difficult. I knew that I wanted to record what was happening so I could read it again later when the world made more sense. I also knew that I wanted to keep my friends and family up to date on the twins' progress.
As time went on and we had multiple days without progress in their conditions, we would occasionally feel writer's block. We wanted to give some new or different news (or more importantly good news), but the truth was that nothing new or different was happening. There were a lot of days that were the same. Sometimes if I had been writing the blog or a few days (or visa versa), my husband would write on the blog and he would have a new take on what was happening.
Who did you tell about your preemie blog? Did you have concerns about reactions to your blog posts?
Carepages allows you to limit access to your blog page, but we didn't choose to do so. You did need to know the name of the blog page to get there so it was mostly through word of mouth.
I was a little weirded out about my coworkers reading my blog and I didn't want to offend any of the medical team who might be reading the blog, but other than that I was OK with it. It was all a little new to me then, but these days, everyone is sharing a story of some kind on Facebook or through a personal blog. In the end, we never had any negative feedback.
Did you find the responses to your preemie blog helpful?
All of the feedback to the blog was overwhelmingly positive.
I looked forward to three things every day
Some of the most helpful responses came from people that I didn't know very well. It was amazing to me how empathetic people were and how they knew the right things to say. Their support helped me get through some of those long, terrible, scary days.
What advice do you have for preemie parents who are interested in blogging?
Carepages (and the medical staff) formed the backbone of our support system. For some premature babies, it is an excruciatingly long ride on the NICU rollercoaster. No one excepts something like this to happen. Let others help you get through it. A lot of people will surprise you with their empathy and genuine caring. It will make your ride just a little easier. And by the way, no matter how endless your stay seems, it will end at some point. You just have to keep telling yourself that it won't be forever.
Nicole Zimmerman is the co- author of The NICU Rollercoaster, the touching true story of the early arrival of premature twins and the ups and downs of their 160 days in the hospital. Heart-warming personal preemie blog posts are interspersed with helpful information for preemie parents coping with the issues of very early or small preemies.
NICU Care Articles
More Preemie Care
Preemie Parents
Parent Support
Lists & Forums
See Also:
Preemie Shopping
Preemie Books
Preemie Shops
Author Interviews | Preemie Books
| Premature
Birth & Delivery | Surviving
the NICU | Preemie
Parenting | Advocacy
All Contents Copyright
Information and Encouragement for your Preemie Baby and Preemie Child
Premature Baby Premature Child


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Assessment Alternative Seen Honing Teachers' Skills, Observations
When Mary Ann Cockman asks her kindergarten pupils to draw self-portraits at the start of the school year, their portrayals often consist of "a large head, two eyes, and a stick for a body.''
When she asks them to do the same thing later in the year, she says, their renderings become more detailed, acquiring ears, mouths, lips, lipstick, eyebrows, eyelashes, fingers, shoes, rectangular legs--even designs on their clothing.
Ms. Cockman says the student portfolios she collects to document such progress--as well as the detailed checklists and written evaluations she prepares on each child--have helped her become more attuned to the ways young children think and grow.
"You learn to look at children differently--the wheels are kind of turning'' as they process knowledge, solve problems, and resolve conflicts, she says.
Thomson Elementary School in Davison, Mich., where Ms. Cockman teaches, is one of 37 schools in the country where teachers are piloting a system of assessment designed to provide an alternative to standardized tests and traditional report cards in the early grades.
The "Work Sampling System'' was developed by Samuel J. Meisels, a professor of education and an associate dean for research at the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor.
Mr. Meisels' voice has been part of the chorus of experts in recent years who warn against traditional school "readiness'' gauges and standardized tests in the early grades. Such tests, he and others contend, are unreliable for young children and have been used inappropriately to delay school entry, retain large numbers of young children, and justify rote-skill instruction.
The goal of the Work Sampling System, Mr. Meisels says, is not only to "replace group-administered achievement testing with teacher-focused performance assessments,'' but also to improve both teaching practices and children's experiences in the preschool-to-grade 3 period.
Three-Tiered System
About 6,000 children and 250 teachers are involved in the project, which is being piloted in schools in Fort Worth; Brattleboro, Vt.; Washington, D.C.; Massachusetts; several Michigan communities; and three Bureau of Indian Affairs schools in New Mexico and South Dakota.
The system includes separate sets of guidelines for preschool-to-3rd-grade classrooms, with introductory materials for teachers and families. Teachers using the system complete a detailed checklist tracking children's performance three times in the year on seven domains: personal/social development, language and literacy, mathematical thinking, scientific thinking, social and cultural awareness, art and music, and physical development.
Teachers also collect samples of children's work in each of the domains at least three times in the year, including tasks asked of all children and individual items that can vary by child.
Based on the checklists, portfolios, and other observations, the teachers three times a year also complete a "summary report,'' or profile evaluating a child's performance, strengths, and difficulties in each domain. Such reports are designed to serve as a basis for communicating with other teachers, parents, and administrators and for planning instruction.
The system is consistent with a national movement in assessing early-childhood development.
Last year, for example, the High/Scope Educational Research Foundation began marketing an alternative early-childhood assessment system involving anecdotal record-keeping.
In addition, the National Education Goals Panel has proposed the development of an early-childhood assessment system to help monitor progress toward the first national education goal of insuring that all children enter school ready to learn. Some schools and states, moreover, have been exploring portfolios and other assessment tools as they move toward phasing out traditional tests and report cards in the early grades.
Cautions on Uses
Mr. Meisels contends, however, that there is nothing as comprehensive as the Work Sampling System "that has empirical data to support it at that age range.''
Initial studies to determine whether other experts would rate children the same way their classroom teachers do based on the portfolios and checklists have shown "extremely high'' reliability, Mr. Meisels says. A study of the validity of the system as compared to an individually administered norm-referenced standardized test involving a sample of about 100 children also showed promising results, he adds.
Mr. Meisels cautions, however, that the Work Sampling System should not be used as a "gatekeeping device'' for school entry or promotion. And while data derived from the system could be used to compare the performance of classrooms or large groups, he adds, its chief purpose is to assess individual children's progress over time, gauge achievement against curriculum goals, and tailor instruction to children's needs.
Lorrie A. Shepard, a professor of education at the University of Colorado and the author of studies on the adverse effects of retention in the early grades, says the biggest danger in introducing alternative early-childhood assessments occurs "when people take a measure [designed] for one purpose and retrofit it for another.''
Much more experimentation and fieldwork in the higher grades are needed, she maintains, to reliably use such data to rate the quality of teachers and schools.
"The kinds of preliminary data we've seen are sufficient to justify classroom uses of these assessments, but would not be sufficient for external accountability purposes,'' she says.
Teacher Education Tool
One of the most useful functions of such assessments, experts say, is to help teachers learn more about child development.
The Work Sampling System offers "the kinds of tools and resources that it would be important for teachers at that level to have,'' says Edward D. Roeber, the director of student-assessment programs for the Council of Chief State School Officers. The council is working with 11 states to design a primary-level assessment system.
Deploying alternative assessments as a tool to help educate teachers is "absolutely the most important use for them,'' says the Harvard University psychologist Howard Gardner.
"We're doing remedial work for what should be done in teacher education'' to teach observational skills from a developmental perspective, Mr. Gardner says.
JoAnne Lowe, a kindergarten teacher at Copeland Elementary School in Dexter, Mich., says the Work Sampling System has helped her become a better observer of "the whole gamut'' of children's needs--including their physical growth and personal and social development--and has "made me aware of areas I wasn't strong at.''
"One of the best things about it is that children do not fail,'' says Janice Brown, the principal of Kettering Elementary School in Willow Run, Mich. "What you are measuring a child against is themselves, not a false presumption like a grade or test. If no growth is evident, then we can look at it and look at how we are going to change our system.''
Parents like the detailed feedback they get from teachers using the system, backers say, and it buoys children's self-esteem.
"Kids by end of year are able to look at their portfolio and see their own growth,'' says Penny Butler, a kindergarten teacher at Garfield Elementary School in Flint, Mich.
Labor Intensive
Perhaps the biggest drawback about the system is how time consuming it is.
"It takes a tremendous amount of time to do this thoroughly on each child,'' Ms. Lowe says.
"You can't do other kinds of assessment on top of this assessment and not really have an overload,'' Ms. Cockman of Davison adds.
Maurice Sykes, the director of early-childhood programs for the Washington, D.C., schools, also notes that the system is apt to be most effective in schools already committed to revamping the early grades.
"It assumes the user is either implementing developmentally appropriate practice or wants to move in that direction,'' he says.
For teachers in his district, which is implementing a number of reforms in its primary grades and had already been piloting "continuous progress'' report cards, "it gave them a management system for something they are already doing,'' Mr. Sykes says.
While they applaud the level of training and technical assistance provided by Mr. Meisels and his colleagues, some educators still predict it will take a few years for them to become comfortable using the system.
Mr. Gardner also concedes it will take time to "develop canons of looking and listening''--like those established in other art forms to rate performance--that policymakers would consider acceptable for accountability purposes. He also advises teachers be involved fully in efforts to systematize the scoring of such systems.
"One of the hard questions educators have to answer is: Are we
interested in knowing how children compare to one another, or are we
interested in knowing how much children are learning?'' Ms. Brown says.
"If we have decided we are more interested in knowing how much children
are learning, we must do something like this.''
Vol. 12, Issue 17
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image source, photography by Heather Elizabeth Photography
Today on Brides Up North its all about the aesthetics, as we argue the case for keeping things natural or giving the beauty gods a helping hand. We ask: wedding day beauty – what to do? No added effort or bring in the experts?
rachel says: keep it natural
While I do enjoy a good Mac makeover now and again I have to say I'm more a fan of the au natural look than I am an obvious made up look, especially when it comes to weddings.
I've first-hand double-taken brides arriving on the aisle, not because I'm dazzled by their radiance but because I barely recognise them. Who is this Barbie-like bride and what have you done with my friend?
Many ladies can think they have to look a certain way for their big day, often adding false nails, eyelashes and fake tan to their pre-wedding beauty regime that they wouldn't usually entertain. But to me the most important thing is to look like you – a flippin' good version of you, but you all the same.
I'm pretty certain the majority of grooms out there would also much rather lift a veil to find a bride that they actually recognise rather than someone who could give Amy Childs a run for her money at the cosmetics counter.
And that's not the only problem, if you go for an on-trend fashionable look chances are you will regret it when look back on your wedding photos, perhaps within a few months, never mind years.
So I say keep it natural ladies, just like our celebrity bride yesterday, Ms Palermo. This doesn't mean you can't enhance your makeup a little by adding a bolder lip colour or subtle, smoky eyes but just be sure not to go OTT, which should result in a look that's more wowie than it is TOWIE.
julia says: go all-out
Ooh, I love a good makeover.
Girls, hear me! This is your wedding day for crissakes. If there was ever a time to step it up, that time is now.
Yes, he loves you just as you are, and yes, you don't want him to wonder who the make-up caked stranger advancing down the aisle might be, but really – he bought you a diamond – an all-out effort on the most important day of your life really is the least you can do.
First and foremost, when will you get the chance for such unashamed pampering again? Take it from this working mum, not when you're changing nappies at 5am or catching up on emails at midnight. If I were you, I'd revel in the chance for a bit of spa-time and shopping. Full body massages, regular manicures, raiding the Charlotte Tilbury counter of a Saturday afternoon – the wedding budget can cover that!
Secondly, upping the beauty ante prior to the big day shouldn't leave you looking like Franken-bride – just choose carefully. In the weeks pre-wedding, I'd leave the chemical peel and spray tan appointments free, but carefully placed individual eyelashes or pretty highlights and even a light swoosh of airbrush makeup will leave you looking flawless and fresh.
Often, the cheapest changes are the most effective. Prior to my own wedding way back in 2010 (when we barely even knew what a wedding blog was), I upped the ante on my regular runs, pencilled in lots more shut eye, ditched the vino and glugged lots of water instead. I treated myself to lots of lovely beauty products and more regular trims to keep my crowning glory in ship-shape. On the day itself, I brought in the experts: my nails were buffed and polished to perfection, hair casually coiffed and make-up beautifully done. The result: tons of confidence and a set of wedding pictures that I'm really proud of.
Did I still look like myself?
Nope. I looked better.
what you said
Kim: "I definitely plan to go glam on my wedding day, this is my chance to look like a princess and I fully intend to make the most of it!"
Melissa: "I'm keeping things natural. My partner hates heavy make up and I don't want to scare him off!"
Julie: "I've heard horror stories about fake tan going wrong, so I plan to let my natural beauty shine through."
Kate: "Part of my hen party involves a spa day so the bridesmaid and I are going to do lots of pre-wedding pampering!"
We'd love to hear what you're planning for your big day beauty look?


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Heart Singing...Laugh Ringing! Here's a Honey of a Hit!
Director:Harold D. Schuster
Tom Breneman
Bonita Granville
Beulah Bondi
Edward Ryan
Raymond Walburn
Billie Burke
Zasu Pitts
Guest Appearances By:
Hedda Hopper
Andy Russell
Spike Jones
Nat King Cole
I don't think I've ever watched a movie from 1946 that reminded me of a movie that was made in 2010. But, while watching Breakfast in Hollywood, a movie that takes various stars in various sub-plots while joining them together in one central theme, in this case a morning radio program that aired nationally at the time (for those from the Cincinnati area, a kind of pre Ruth Lyon's show for women), the similarities between it and Valentine's Day struck me as deja vu. It made me realize how dismal that latter movie really was. But, I'm not here to write about movies from this century so let's return to the middle of the 20th century and this rather convoluted piece of fluff that, while at points are entertaining, left me most of the time pausing the Amazon Prime streaming to see how much time was left. And then finally, when everything begins to pick up, the movie comes to a fairly quick conclusion.
This film is centered around around a radio program hosted by Tom Breneman which aired in the mornings at a restaurant he owned in Hollywood.
It was located on Vine Street off Sunset Boulevard. Seeing as how this restaurant was built because of the success of his radio show and that a movie was made with his radio show as the central setting, I'm guessing that it was a pretty popular show.
At any rate, the first quarter of the movie takes place for the most part (after introducing us to our main characters as they prepare themselves to see the show), during the Breakfast in Hollywood morning telecast. In many ways the telecast is one of the most interesting things about this film as it shows a sort of time capsule into radio shows of that day and provides some pretty good talent as well as laughs. I've heard the name Spike Jones often, but can't remember having seen him perform before. Another performer on the show, Andy Russell, was someone that I wasn't familiar with, but later learned was quite popular at the time. He would go on to replace Frank Sinatra on Your Hit Parade. And of course, there is no need to explain who Nat King Cole is, although in this movie he is referred to simply as King Cole. Much of the show is an interaction between host Breneman and his audience and it is through this method that we see Hedda Hopper as well as the mothers of Gary Cooper and Joan Crawford. It is also how all of the main characters in the show become aware of one another.
Bonita Granville plays Dorothy Lawson, a young girl who has travelled by bus from Minnesota to meet up with her fiance who is in the Navy and has failed to show up at the depot. A woman that is from the U.S,O. gives her a ticket to the show to pass the time until she can get her on a bus back to Minnesota. She is the main character of the movie and the story between her and another sailor (not her fiance) turns out to be the actual main plot of the movie.
Edward Ryan plays Ken Smith, the other sailor. He is given a ride into Hollywood by Breneman who also gives him a ticket to his show. Until the show begins, Smith has no idea that he is Breneman. It is at the show that he meets Dorothy, and while talking to her when paired together by Breneman, realizes that her fiance is one of his shipmates and that he is already married.
Beulah Bondi, who must have started playing a senior citizen when she was in her twenties, judging from the wide range of films she made in that type of role and the whole gamut of decades in which she played them in, plays one in this film as well. She is 82 year old Mrs. Annie Reed and has been thrown into the mix to assist as a matchmaker to our young couple. Her role is perhaps one of the best of the entire movie as you feel humor, sympathy and compassion for her character. Bondi seems to never disappoint as a supporting character.
Zasu Pitts is Elvira Spriggens and seems to be in the film as nothing more than comic relief. She has spent months working on an ugly hat that will get her chosen to appear on the radio show, almost getting chosen, but who is upstaged by Hedda Hopper, notorious for her collection of outrageous head gear.
Finally, we have Billie Burke, most famous as Glinda, the good witch in The Wizard of Oz, this time cast as Mrs Francis Cartwright, who is married to the seemingly womanizing Richard Cartwright (Raymond Walburn). I have no idea why they are in the picture, but their plot involves Burke winning some beauty products at the show and the transformation that takes place and Walburn once again being attracted to her. Walburn incidentally, runs into Bondi on his way to see his mistress and this sets off an entire comedy of circumstances that go on throughout the movie. Not to worry, Bondi's character is not severely injured.
The rest of this movie is up to you. Maybe it was original at the time, but this is one that somehow seems to stall in the middle, about the time that Smith reveals to Lawson that her fiance is already married. Of course it didn't help matters that he told her right after sneaking a kiss in a photo booth and expressing his feelings for her, which she rejects.
I could reveal more, but if you know how the rest goes it would make this film seem just that much longer. Incidentally, you can watch this film online even if you don't have Amazon Prime. It is free at Archive.Org. Or, you can watch it below:
My recommendation: Watch the beginning of this movie through the radio broadcast and then decide for yourself if you want to see more.