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- Home
- Doll Making
- Joy's Waldorf Dolls Kits
- Washing Instructions for a Joy's Waldorf Doll
Washing instructions courtesy of Joy's Waldorf Dolls
To spot clean your doll you can:
- Rub soiled area with a luke-warm wet cloth and mild soap.
- Rinse with a clean wet cloth and then blot out the moisture.
- Air dry OR if washing a small area blow dry with a cool hair dryer to avoid leaving a spot.
To wash your doll:
- You can wash your doll as you would a wool sweater with a good soak in mild soap and cool water and then spot rubbing.
- Rinse all soap out.
- Take care to reshape the doll with your hands after water is squeezed out.
- Wrap it in a towel for a bit and follow directions for drying.
Drying -depending on how wet it is:
- You may leave it to air dry or
- Use the cool setting on the hair dryer for spot drying.
- I have a sweater/sneaker rack for my clothes dryer and I place it in the dryer for as long as needed on low to no heat setting.
Product Reviews
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In recent years, the Tablet PCs has earned popularity pretty fast, partially thanks to Apple's iPad and its accompanying promotional campaign. Seeing this product's success, almost every, self-respecting IT company began developing their own versions of the Tablet PC. As a result, quite a wide variety of mixed quality tablet PCs emerged, most of them powered by the Android operating system. There are also some exceptions, such as the BlackBerry Playbook that runs their own BlackBerry Tablet OS, HP TouchPad with webOS, and even ExoPC Slate running Windows 7. Admittedly, only few of those tablets set up serious competition to the niche pioneer Apple iPad - the best examples are Samsung Galaxy Tab, Motorola Xoom and Asus Eee Pad Transformer.
If you use your Tablet PC for business needs such as various presentations or meetings, you certainly need a nice briefcase or purse for it. If you carry your laptop with you as well, certainly you can carry both in one big briefcase, which provides space for both - computer and tablet. Otherwise, using briefcases, designed especially for tablet PCs, certainly would be more convenient not only because of their compactness, but as they also may provide a variety of additional options - such as stand, a physical keyboard, additional speakers and even an extra built-in battery.
There are so many tablets available in market for now, that it is hard to even orientate in them. It is the same situation with the accessories purses, cases and briefcases. They are offered by a wide variety of manufacturers, such as Mulberry, iLuv, Saddleback Leather and many others. There is wide variety of cases offered especially for Apple iPad tablets and it is quite easy to find one that suits best for your needs.
If you own a bit more exotic tablet PC with a non-standard dimensions and/or different saliencies (e.g. for camera) placed differently, then finding something more than the standard manufacturer offered cases can be quite difficult. But do not immediately give up - you can search by your device's model name and you will definitely find something suitable. If, however, your device is not sufficiently well represented, you can search by the device's dimensions (width, length, depth) - often briefcases made for a specific tablet model will fit on other devices as well, if dimensions are the same. One must be careful though with different connectors for keyboards and other peripherals. If you are looking for a case by the dimensions, you should pay attention to its internal dimensions, rather than external, as often the external dimensions can be much larger than the internal.

subset: commoncrawl


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lowest rate guarantee!
The Betsy Blog
Give Mom more than flowers.
Whether Mom needs an escape for an afternoon, a day, or a little longer, The Betsy has just the thing.Read more >
"Perfect romantic getaway in our favorite beach town! The rooms were very cute, very clean, and perfect for our beach needs."- Melliet
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"I can't say enough nice things about the The Betsy Hotel. The service was excellent and very friendly."- Joe M
"Amazing restoration of a beautiful property within walking distance of the beach and Del South Beach for dinner."- Mike R - Juno Beach


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Beware the wolves. The world is burdened with problems, disasters, woes, wars and weary hearts burdened by anxieties and fears, and it is only waxing worse. So it is no wonder people en masse are starting to ask, "When is the end of the world?"
I can assure you that the Bible is clear in teaching that no man knows the year, month, day or the hour. Yet throughout the generations, many foolish people have followed after false prophets who claim to have heard from God, who has revealed to them a specific date of his return or the end of the world. These false prophets will be judged by God for leading people astray.
The most recent doomsayer is Harold Camping and his May 21, 2011, end of the world prediction.
Many other church leaders charm and persuade their congregants to believe that they have a special hotline to God which puts them above everyone else. My friends, God himself will reveal all things to you personally if you personally seek him.


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4. Tropical Staycation
Lonny fave Eskayel has wowed me again with their newest collection of ethereal prints—this time, inspired by the tropics. No Beverly Hills Hotel palms here—this foliage is done in designer Shanan Campanero's signature style with dusty tones viewed through a dreamy, hazy lens.
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Use bias in a sentence
- For a hundred years the South was developed on its own lines, with astonishingly little exterior bias. [4]
- The place of which Bias had told him was situated on a lofty portion of the shore. [10]
- You met her when Bias gave her the bridal dowry which was to purchase my release from my husband. [10]
- All these articles were arranged haphazard, and showed that Bias possessed more wisdom than care in the use of duster and broom. [10]
- Then she tried to raise herself and, as she constantly sank back again, Bias aided her. [10]
- To work by this rule in literary criticism is to substitute something definite for the individual tastes, moods, and local bias of the critic. [4]
- Bias pointed to the poop, where the commander Eumedes was standing directing the course of the fleet. [10]
- Bias, on his part, was very willing to go to rest. [10]
- After the recovery of the prisoners, she became their protectress, and placed Bias in the service of the Greek artist. [10]
- Neither mental bias nor interest gained by any searching examination of the science to which I wished to devote myself, turned the scale. [10]
- As a rule, I think it better that Congress should originate as well as perfect its measures without external bias. [7]
- Nevertheless they were human, and it were wise to take account, in the conduct of the case, of the probable bias of each individual. [9]
- Bias supported her, for she had risen to her full height, and he felt how she tottered and trembled. [10]
- He had not entered the studios for several months, unless Bias had granted him admittance without informing his master. [10]
- The bias which decides his choice between two or more motives may come from some unsuspected ancestral source, of which he knows nothing at all. [6]
- In this statue Bias recognised his countrywoman Ledscha, and often gazed long at it with devout ecstasy. [10]
- The next morning Bias delivered to the astonished priest of Nemesis the large gifts intended for the avenging goddess. [10]
- How had Myrtilus and Bias escaped the flames and death on that night of horror? [10]
- But Bias had also quitted his post of observation, and after she had taken a few steps forward, barred her way. [10]
- But he had already returned when Bias reached Pitane with the two talents intended for him. [10]
This page helps answer: how do I use the word bias in a sentence? How do you use bias in a sentence? Can you give me a sentence for the word bias? It may also be related to school part-time education and training, children education tutors, and elementary.
Example sentences with the word bias, a sentence example for bias, and bias in sample sentence.


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For those of you who still think eco-fashion means beige hippy skirts and cream-colored organic t-shirts, we would like to introduce you to Popomomo. This line of smart, unique and provocative-yet-totally-wearable garments highlights the chic edge of modern eco-fashion. For her Fall 2010 collection, designer Lizz Wasserman took inspiration from quartz crystals and melting polar ice caps, and in a marriage of precise geometric lines with swirly prints in icy hues, came stunning, innovative and gorgeous garments.
We were fortunate enough to get a peek at her collection as part of the Green Shows at New York Fashion Week, and boy were we blown away! Read on for our in-depth coverage and exclusive pictures of the Popomomo fashion show!


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Who knew Dutchsinse had so many talents…
Be a Champion — by 'Just Bryn' / produced by Dutchsinse & Jud Mahoney (uk)
Uploaded by dutchsinse on Jun 17, 2011
If you want to help support my cause…. THIS is what I worked on these past several months.. download and share it! hope you all like it :^)
Just Bryn singing "Be a champion"
download the song for free @ my blog:
If you want to help support my work.. you can try to get this song "on the air"… i.e.. radio!
If this song/album sells.. I will be able to do my video work full time with no worries!!!! please help share this song ANY way you can.
Free for distribution and re-download.
This is just ONE of the several awesome songs I co-produced with Jud Mahoney over in the UK. Download and share it — and again, please.. request this song by Just Bryn to be played by your local radio station!!!!
Im serious!
These video shots are from the Radiation measurement road trip , june 2011
much love
Everyone who has been helped by Dutchsinse's work remember while you listen to this beautiful rendition.


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A great holiday tradition ends
It seems we'll no longer be getting packages of tax forms in the mail from the IRS right after Christmas. There once was a time (not 20 years ago) when every taxpayer would get a tax form in their mailbox sometime around the holidays -- exactly which day depended on how warped a sense of humor one's mail carrier had. But over the years, folks who used professional preparers and computer programs the previous year stopped getting the form packages. Now the mailings are being phased out entirely. Ya can't stop progress.


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Even novice PC users have created flourishing businesses, and you could be next. These tips will show you the way to success.
Signature Block
Add your website as a link in each signature block you use. If you are active on a message board, include a link within your signature block. Every email you send out should have a link to your site within your signature. This is a nearly subliminal way to advertise your website to the people you come across on the Internet. It could boost your search rankings as well. The link should include some interesting text that prompts the viewer to visit your site.
Always look for ways to garner feedback from your site's visitors. This is often critical in determining your success, as how you perceive things is not always the same as how others see them. Get feedback from customers, relatives and even your competition. Take their advice seriously and make any changes you need.
You need to take this whole endeavor seriously and do your research. Choose a trusted mentor that you admire online. Experts in the subject of affiliate marketing often provide advice that is either free or available for a low cost. Also, pick a system you want to follow, and stick with it. It may not take off immediately, but it will be worth the time you put into it.
A website can have several sections, each with a different type of product. Do not stray too far from the category in which your product lies. Functionality is key here.
You already have all of the tools that you need in order to be successful with web marketing. There is no need for expensive software or fancy equipment. Just use yourself. With plenty of thought and effort, you will work through your decisions and strategies when it comes to marketing.
It will take practice to master your particular area, but with some effort and persistence you greatly improve your odds of success. If you apply this knowledge whenever possible, you will be able to meet your goals in time.


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Do you miss your favorite foods? Kris Henderson can help!
Do you hate dieting? If you think the hardest part of losing weight is saying "no" to your favorite foods, you're in for a treat ... literally.
In this video, therapist, wellness coach and YourTango Expert Kris Henderson explains how you can strike the perfect balance between eating what you love and losing weight. Body Image: Help! My Skinny Friend Thinks She's Fat
"Research consistently points out," says Kris, "that when you make a specific food group off-limits, it's almost like you're revving up that craving engine." So, if you want to lose weight, don't deprive yourself!
Want to learn more? Check out the video above.


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"My hair was like..
the lost treasure of the Apollo,
God of the golden Sun.
A symbol of change and revolution.
I felt wild and free."
Dear Diary,
Today is Thursday
the 1st of April 2010,
1.40am in the morning and I just got out of the shower.
I couldn't remember.. I think I was having nice a dream. While sleeping cozily under a 3-inch thick nylon blanket. Then a fucking cat kept moaning right outside my window like 50 times, and the moans gradually started to grow into shrieks until my eyes were blood-shot wide open. I couldn't remember the dream I had at all.
I swung my window wide open looking for the fucking thing in the dark, I would've thrown my laptop at it or something, fucking cat.
Diary, the past few days I feel like I've lost a friend, mypride was dented, it feels like I've lost a family member, my partner in crime, the day I dyed away my darling sparkly hair.
Why hello there mr. sexy asian, too bad youre the same as every other
Now it reminds me, my black hair had a tinge of natural brown in it.
The Grueling Process
Eventually I the roots just grew out ugly and I just had to fix it.
So after much thought I decided to go pitch black.
- Hair bleached 8 times, dyed with platinum last.
- It smelled funny, my eyes hurt.
- Bleaching my black hair away took 8 hours for the right colour to come out
- Each time felt like acid and fire ants poured all over my head
- But it was all worth it in the end.
No one and nothing could stop me.
Eventually I the roots just grew out ugly and I just had to fix it.
So after much thought I decided to go pitch black.
It rained so heavily when I got home, the skies were telling me not to do it :(
The black fighting with the blonde.
Ma trimming away the damaged ends
Waiting and waiting and..
Oh hurry up already!
Dyeing starts
Waited for 45 min, wanna see my Black hair?
To be continued...


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- Strengthening tonic, 8.45 oz.
- Triamine Complex repairs damaged hair with Amino Acids that protect and nourish
- Low molecular weights and sized proteins (MWS 150-2500) penetrate and protect hair
- Detangles
- Styles and conditions
- Adds strength and shine
- Protects against heat and environmental damage
- Adds manageability
- Light hold
Directions on Usage:
Spray on damp hair, style with brush comb or heated tools.
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Additional Info


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A Bridge Too Far
January 9, 2014
As a proud New Jersey resident, I have never liked the epithet used by New Yorkers to describe my tribe–bridge and tunnel people. However, now that Governor Christie has decided to use our bridges for guerilla warfare, I am happy to be on the side of Fort Lee. Let us use our bridges for travel, not political retribution.
I am hoping that people outside the Garden State realize what a true political bully is capable of, and write off Mr. Christie as a presidential candidate. The man is an embarrassment to every citizen on this side of the Hudson.


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|Project by Isra
|posted 12-23-2015 08:44 PM
|2248 views
|7 times favorited
|4 comments
Hello, first of all Merry Christmas for everyone. I´ve been working on a mitre jack, made of quarter sawn beech with a quarter sawn maple screw. I also made the brass hardware to attach the screw to the moving part. I have tryed it and it works great. If you usually make a lot of mitres it is worth the time you spend making it. I hope you like it.
I made a description of the process in my blog, it is in spanish, but there are a lot of pictures, if somone is interested, here is the link: mitre jack process
-- Isra, Salcedillo (Cantabria), http://www.lacabraenlaescalera.com
4 comments so far
#1 posted 12-23-2015 10:30 PM
Nicely done. Looks as if it would be handy for frame making.
-- Gary D. Stoughton, WI
#2 posted 12-23-2015 11:04 PM
Thanks Gary, I made to make secret mitre dovetails better, I think it will work.
-- Isra, Salcedillo (Cantabria), http://www.lacabraenlaescalera.com
#3 posted 12-24-2015 02:32 AM
Very nice Isra. I too made mine to do full blind dovetails but now I find I use it for many other things.
-- Paul M ..............the early bird may get the worm but it's the second mouse that gets the cheese! http://thecanadianschooloffrenchmarquetry.com/
#4 posted 12-24-2015 07:50 AM
Thanks Paul, I use it for almost every mitre that I make.
-- Isra, Salcedillo (Cantabria), http://www.lacabraenlaescalera.com
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Tuesday, April 12, 2011
Tuesday Is Recycling Day
I've been obsessing quite a bit lately over the notion of the truth. For me personally, the internal debate over what's real and honest and what's complete fabrication is ancient history; it's not something I need to concern myself with anymore, even though at one time it was an all-consuming, paranoia-inducing proposition in my life. But a few things have happened recently to cause me to revisit a question that I once pondered endlessly and feverishly: If the entire life you know is an elegantly spun, nearly impenetrable lie, is it better to simply take the blue pill and go about your business, or is it a moral and intellectual imperative that you know the truth -- even if that truth will devastate you? I'm not sure I know the answer at this point in my life, but at one time I furiously staked out a position of absolute certainty on the pages of this site. Over the next couple of weeks, you'll probably see a number of reposts of pieces that touched on this subject, as well as a few new ruminations.
I was once so sure. Now I'm learning that, as William Goldman famously said, "Nobody knows nothin'."
"Where the Truth Lies" (Originally Published, 11.11.07)
"There will be time, to prepare a face to meet the faces that you meet."
-- T.S. Eliot
-- Poster for Michael Clayton
In the pantheon of exceptional lies ever told, it probably doesn't even merit a seat. The Great Teacher's Note Cover-up is initially noteworthy insofar as it was the first time I attempted to put one over on anyone -- in this case, my mother and father -- in such a grand fashion. It obviously wouldn't be the last.
When I was a first-grader at Miami Lakes Elementary, my teacher Miss Feingold made a hobby out of issuing lengthy written diatribes decrying my lack of attention, lack of respect for authority and general lack of interest in anything she had to say. I remember she would give me a look which I now know to be the bitter snarl of the miserably undersexed, then tuck the official teacher-parent document into my backpack and send me on my way -- safe in the misguided knowledge that, perhaps because she was an adult and in a position of some power relative to my own standing, her silly little rant would reach its intended target unscathed. Believe it or not, her missives actually did find their way into my parents' hands most of the time. This had almost nothing to do with a desire to do right by Miss Feingold and everything to do with the fact that, as a child, I fully believed that my father could read minds, see through walls, be in seven or eight places at the same time -- invisibly -- and make me disappear from the face of the planet as if I'd never existed, should the mood strike him. I never wanted to run the risk of not giving his omniscience its due, and wind up paying dearly for it.
Well, almost never.
The timing of one specific note was such that even the threat of filicide wasn't enough to keep me from ensuring that my parents would never lay eyes on it. It was opening day of the big Miami Lakes carnival -- an annual event that I awaited with the same kind of desperation that a death row inmate waits for that last minute call from the governor -- that Miss Feingold apparently realized it had been some time since she'd pointed her resentment for a 20-something-year tradition of failure in my direction. She penned a nasty note detailing my supposed unwillingness to complete my assignments as instructed -- what she called "lazy" I called "unchallenged" -- and as usual sent me home, this time with what amounted to a ticking time bomb sure to destroy my hopes of going to the carnival once it reached the hands of my father. (In hindsight, I'm almost certain she picked that particular day deliberately.)
Needless to say, I had to take decisive, deceptive action to save my dream of ferris wheels and cotton candy -- so I torched the thing.
It's really a testament to my belief in the investigative abilities of my father, who at that time was a Miami-Dade cop, that I felt the need not only to hide the offending letter but to literally obliterate it. I figured wherever I hid the note, he would find it. Whether I dumped it in a 7-11 trash bin or buried it in the next door neighbor's backyard or mailed it to Alaska, one way or the other he'd sniff it out, track it down and pull it out of his ass one night at the dining room table, just to see the look on my face. It was with these superhuman powers in mind that, later that afternoon, I grabbed a book of matches from the aforementioned 7-11, then ran to an alley near my house, set Miss Feingold's words on fire and -- just to be absolutely sure -- buried the ashes in a field a few blocks away.
Later that night, I went to the carnival; I had a great time.
By the way, I fully expect a phone call from my father at any moment informing me that I'm grounded.
As I said, The Great Teacher's Note Cover-up was not by any means the most impressive lie I ever told nor was it the most creative instance of my burning and burying the facts; what was significant about it though was that it marked the first time I realized that lying, despite the admittedly considerable risk involved, had the potential to yield immeasurable benefits. Even more significant was that I suddenly understood that it was indeed possible to do it and not get caught and, most edifying or troubling depending on your point of view, that I could do it without so much as a word of protest from that underdeveloped thing supposedly known as my conscience.
So do it I did -- over and over for a period of my life that I can now say, in retrospect, lasted far too long for me to be able to consider myself a decent and worthwhile person when the totality of my existence is taken into account.
There were times that I simply bullshitted. There were times that I outright lied to people's faces. There were times that I rationalized what I knew to be insincere behavior: I told myself that the truth would hurt too much, so really why bother with it? (In the end, you're doing someone a favor by not telling the truth; it would only cause unnecessary trauma, right?) Providing the ultimate irony was the fact that I worked as a journalist; my job was to tell the truth, and yet in my personal life I told lie after lie after lie. Even when the lies occasionally unraveled, I told more -- at times forgetting what was real and what was nothing more than my own personal pageantry.
I lost track of who I was; I damn well became something I never wanted to be.
Here's the thing, though: In spite of the lies I told myself about why I was lying in the first place -- the things I said in the hopes of calming my conscience once it finally did begin putting up a fight -- I somehow always understood that the truth mattered, and that I had no excuse for what I was doing.
I'll say it again -- the truth matters.
It matters, despite what we've come to believe.
At the risk of sounding grandiose, we for some reason now accept that the truth is like anything else in our society: fleeting, malleable, up for debate, at the whim of democracy or subject to adjustment by whoever shouts the loudest. We're expected to believe that all supposed "truths" are equal and are therefore deserving of equal consideration. This is a lie in and of itself.
Not only do we seem to not mind being lied to, we've come to expect it. Bill Clinton can take you for an idiot by forcefully declaring his lack of sexual contact with a chunky White House intern; Dick Cheney can insult your intelligence by literally trying to make you believe that your eyes, ears and gut are, ironically, lying to you about what's going on in Iraq; Paris Hilton can claim, with a completely straight face, that she doesn't do drugs. The fact that they each have the ability to do it isn't a surprise; the fact that they think no one will care enough to call them on it -- their firm belief that they can get away with it -- is just fucking deplorable.
We're willing to seriously debate the concept of "intelligent design," despite there not being a shred of proof to back it up; we give it creedence simply because there are enough morons out there who believe it, as if reality is subject to the whims of whomever. The problem with this kind of debate is that if we consider all so-called facts to be equal, if pick and choose what we hold up to evidentiary standards, we render the truth worthless.
One more time -- the truth matters.
It matters, because it's a standard by which we measure a lie.
Chuck Klosterman's written a lot over the years about his fascination with questions of reality -- what's real and what isn't, and how can we tell the difference. He makes no apologies for his populist references, and I won't either in this case. In one of his better essays, Klosterman waxes philosophical on the movie The Matrix. One of the underlying questions posed by the movie -- one of the more subtle aspects of the film that's tough to spot in between crap being blown up and Keanu Reeves turning in yet another mannequin-like performance -- is whether it's preferable to live a comfortable lie or a harsh reality. His argument, and it's a damn good one, is that if nothing about your life is real -- if it's all a lie -- then that lie becomes the truth. Once again, there's no standard by which to measure the fakery, so it makes no difference either way.
But what if only one part of your life isn't real? Is it better then to be comfortable, despite not being aware of what's really happening? Is there genuine bliss to be found in ignorance? Better yet, is a lie that hasn't been discovered really a lie? The answers to these questions of course are no, no and yes. Bullshit is bullshit regardless of whether you personally can smell it.
The truth matters.
It matters because any decision made without all the facts can never be the right decision.
If my father had received that letter from Miss Feingold all those years ago, he likely wouldn't have allowed me to go to the Miami Lakes carnival -- or maybe he would have.
I'll never know, because I never gave him the chance.
5 comments:
- brite said...
I must have missed this one first time around, so I'm glad that you reposted it.It gets me to thinking, and you know womans be thinking to much can be a dangerous thing.
- Geek Girl Diva said...
Here's what occurred to me.
Maybe your dad would have grounded you. But in a perfect world you would have told your dad that you being "lazy" was you feeling bored and unchallenged and maybe it would have opened up a conversation.
Your mind said if your dad found out you were a dead man. In that time, int hat place, the fear was real enough for you to burn the note.
Truth does matter. Consequences are a bitch.
To this day, I still believe that if Clinton had flat out said that he did mess around with Monica Lewinsky, the people would have ultimately forgiven him. Clinton was just that charming.
But he was afraid of the consequences.
Then again, there are "consequences" either way, if you think about it.
I guess is just depends on which ones you think will suck less and if you're going to deal with the harder or easier option.
I do know one thing. Integrity counts. And if your dad grounds you after reading this, I'll be it won't be for burning the note. But for lying to him.
And I bet you'd feel better about yourself during your incarceration ;-)
I tell the truth to an annoying extent (sometimes even to myself) and I lived for many years with a man who lied constantly.
Your description of the internal processes fascinates me, though we did manage to have some fairly authentic conversations about lying on rare occasions.
It's an interesting point that the truth is important because it measures lies. Another reason is that it doesn't really care if we believe it or not - it will be what it will be.
Now I wait to see if the power of the brain and collective human will can revert a universe of indifferent truths into one of lies. I'm guessing no. I'm guessing that if somehow we did pull it off, we would not like that world at all...even, if not especially, the most talented liars amongst us.
- The Bacon said...
First, I think you should have that conversation with Donald Sutherland in a cloud of bong smoke.
Second...remember (Chez) it's not a lie....if you believe it.
I know it's a tough day brother. You're in my thoughts.
Truth's nature, its 'stuff': fact.
Lies' nature: fiction.
Therein lies the difference: one is real, the other, made up.
Big diff in my books.


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SEATTLE (AP) – Surveillance video from a Metro bus in Seattle shows the dramatic takedown of an armed man who was robbing passengers of their phones.
The video from Nov. 25 is evidence in the case against 19-year-old Trevonnte Brown of Seattle. He pleaded not guilty on Monday to robbery charges and is jailed with bail set at $350,000.
The video shows the robber taking phones before pointing his gun in the face of one man who pushes it away and fights back. Other passengers jump in and subdue the man.
One of the passengers who was robbed, Chris Briggs, told KOMO (
http://bit.ly/JLxCy9) he initially said no but handed over his phone when he was jabbed with the gun.
After another passenger scuffled with the robber, Briggs jumped in to help hold him.
(Copyright 2013 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.)


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Steve Grand: The All-American Man
Behold the power of the Internet in 2013. In a matter of 48 hours over the past Fourth of July holiday, Steve Grand went from being an unknown Chicago twentysomething to a bona fide viral Web star. If you haven't heard the song "All-American Boy" or seen the accompanying music video, you must have been completely disconnected from pop culture this summer. All the budding singer-songwriter did was become the talk of the gay community, music industry and country scene.
The quick recap: Grand uploads the video for his self-penned first single on July 2nd. The song and video tell the story of Grand's pining for and boyishly chasing after his best buddy. A kiss happens, followed by rejection, as we see said friend is straight. No fight. No drama. Life goes on.
Before the Independence Day fireworks even lit up the sky, the video had racked up nearly a million views (and today boasts more than 2 million). Blogs both LGBT-oriented and otherwise shared the clip, and social media was abuzz with the 23-year-old's name. Grand may not have been the first openly gay country singer (as some in the media incorrectly labeled him), but there's no doubting the impact Steve Grand has made on our year.
"It's been the most amazing, most hectic thing, a real whirlwind," Grand says just two months after the song's debut. "I was terrified leading up to it. I knew I had to do this, that I had this in me. This video and song have had a much greater impact, a much deeper impact than I could have ever hoped for. I really wasn't expecting for it to resonate with people on such a deep level. It's been a huge, huge gift."
In today's superconnected social-media age, discovering a promising singer online isn't exactly breaking news, but it was obvious that Grand's same-sex love story (and open sexuality) had people talking. As one veteran music publicist tells Instinct, for an artist to essentially make their introduction to the world with an openly gay message is, in terms of industry standards, nearly unheard of and certainly wouldn't be recommended by a major label. (It should be noted that Grand's music and video were self-produced, self-financed and self-released.) "Sure, it helped that he's good-looking," the exec continues. "But at the core, you need a good song, and he had that. He impressively got people's attention."
It's attention that hasn't been all smooth sailing and acclaim. With such buzz comes intense, at times invasive, interest, and suddenly Grand found himself thrust into the media spotlight. Within a week of becoming the talk of the Web, Grand was profiled on Good Morning America, where it was reported that as a teen his parents put him in "straight therapy," which other outlets began reporting as "conversion therapy." Questions and speculation followed, and Grand soon found himself having to defend statements he's made in support of his parents. Now he wants to clear the air once and for all.
"This is such a touchy subject to talk about. I don't want to misrepresent what happened, but I also don't want to endorse anything or take away from others' experiences," Grand says. "I was not in conversion therapy. I was seeing a Christian therapist, who, among many beliefs, believed I would be happier if I didn't live life as a gay man. He did not shame me. He did not make me feel bad for what I felt. But he did believe I would be happier in life if I lived as a heterosexual, and that part is indeed harmful. If you're doing anything but affirming someone's sexuality, you're harming them. Especially a child.
For more on Steve Grand, pick up the new issue of Instinct, out now!


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Middleborough High School Project Moves ForwardCategory: Company Updates
Article posted on August 25, 2016 in South Coast Today | By Matthew Ferreira
MIDDLEBORO — While still a ways off from talking addition/renovation vs. new construction, or any type of design plans relative to a Middleborough High School building project, steady progress has been made toward that end since the Mass. School Building Authority (MSBA) in Boston accepted the district's application to consider Middleborough High School for a major building project — Compass Project Management has been hired as the owner's project manager, Drummy Rosane Anderson, Inc. (DRA) was later brought on as the project's architectural firm, and members of the Middleborough School Building Committee have stuck to a consistent meeting schedule since its formation last year.
Compass, DRA and building committee representatives say they would like to drive public attention to an upcoming date — Wednesday, Sept. 14 — when the first of a series of informational/public inform forums will take place. To establish a level of public awareness of where the project is currently, and what type of input would be helpful to the parties involved as the project rolls on, The Gazette recently spoke with individuals representing Compass, DRA, and the School Committee/School Building Committee.
Compass Project Management President Tim Bonfatti explained the role his firm has in Middleboro's process.
"As the owner's project manager (OPM) on this project, our role is to work solely in the interest of Middleboro. We're not the architect, not the builder — we work with them on behalf of Middleboro. We're also the liaisons between Middleboro and the MSBA. Essentially, we're tasked with making sure the town gets the best results for its tax dollars," Bonfatti said. "OPMs came into existence about 20 years ago because people were finding, especially with public projects, that a lot of building projects were going off track, off schedule, over budget, and sometimes resulting in disastrous construction projects. That's where the need came in."
Bonfatti says his firm has been working over the summer on forming an assessment of Middleboro's current situation with the existing high school building on East Grove Street, and says MSBA's choice to bring Middleborough High School into their process alone would indicate a dire need to improve its current situation.
"There's studies that have been done that we've had access to and we've been in and out through the summer looking at systems, looking at ground conditions around the building and things like that," he said. "There's a reason why the MSBA has selected Middleboro — the building is defected. Quite frankly, it has to be a pretty dire circumstance for MSBA to accept a school into its program, so this high school obviously has to be completely renovated and likely added onto, or it needs to be replaced with a new building."Read the Complete Article


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Market Statistics
San Francisco Real Estate Market Update – September 2017
Single Family Homes:
August's median sales price continued its predictable seasonal backing off from its Spring peak, dropping 6.4% to $1,380,000 from May's $1,475,000. However, in the same time frame last year prices dipped 7.4%. Prices are still up 10.4% above August, 2016.
Since August, 2012, the median sold price in San Francisco is up 81%.
Inventory continues to be at its lowest level, 1.6 months, since last December. This is the ongoing result of fewer homes coming on the market while sales stay fairly constant. The number of new listings on the market year-to-date is down 7% from 2016 while the number of sales is up 3.3%.
The incredibly tight supply coupled with strong demand kept the level of overbids high as well, down a bit from July but still at 114%, and 79% of single family homes sold above the list price, up from 75.9% last August.
Median sold prices are up 10.8%, to $1,175,000, compared to August 2016. And, while not as great a rise as with single family homes, the median sold price is up 62.5% compared to August 2012's $723,000.
In August, 63.4% sold above list price and the median bid was 3.2% above list price.
The number of Condo/Loft/TIC listings are also down year-to-date compared to 2016, by 10.7%. And, like single family homes, sales are up, by 2.6%. Current inventory stands at a 2 months supply.
San Francisco Real Estate Market Update – August 2017
July's median sales price for single family in San Francisco followed its seasonal backing off of its May peak, dropping to $1,431,000 from May's $1,500,838.
Single family home inventory continues to be at its lowest level, 1.6 months, since last December, and its lowest July level in a decade. This continues to be caused by fewer homes coming on the market, while sales stay fairly constant. The number of new listings on the market in 2017 is down 10% from 2016 while the number of sales is up 1.4%.
The incredibly tight supply coupled with strong demand pushed overbids up as well, to 117%, the highest since September, 2015.
Condo listings are also down year-to-date compared to 2016, by 12.7%. And, like homes, sales are up, by 4.3%, leading to a 2 months supply. And, like single family homes, condos were bid up above list price to a median overbid of 107%.
San Francisco Real Estate Market Update – July 2017
June's median sales price for single family in San Francisco backed off a bit from its all-time high in May, dropping from $1,502,675 to $1,465,989. At the same time, single family home inventory was at the lowest level, 1.6 months, for June in 10 years. This is largely due to the fact that the number of new listings on the market in 2017 is down 8.8% from 2016 while the number of sales is up 1.3%.
The incredibly tight supply coupled with strong demand pushed overbids up as well, to 115%, the highest since October, 2015.
Condo listings are also down from 2016, by 13.3%. And, like homes, sales are up, by 6.6%, leading to a 2.2 months supply. So, like single family homes, condos sold at a median overbid of 102.5%, off just slightly from May's 102.7%.
The exceptionally strong San Francisco economy continues to be behind these numbers. Unemployment stands at just 3.0%, down from 2016's 3.4%. There are more jobs filled in every category tracked by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in June, 2017 than there were in June, 2016. And while the increase in the number of new jobs is slowing, jobs are still being added.
San Francisco Real Estate Market Update – June 2017
The median sales price hit an all-time high for both single family houses and condo/loft/TIC's in May. The incredibly tight supply coupled with strong demand pushed the prices up and the overbids as well. Single family homes sold at a median overbid of 114.7%, the highest since October, 2015. Condos sold at a median of 103% of list price, the highest overbid percentage since May 2016.
As we discussed last month, the number of new single family home listings coming on the market was down sharply in April, 25.5%, and we saw that repeated again in May with a 12% year-on-year drop.
Likewise, the precipitous decline, 33.5%, in new condo/loft/TIC listings coming on the market in April, was followed by a 23% drop year-on-year for May. This is the third double-digit monthly year-on-year decline for new condo/loft/TIC listings this year.
The total number of single family homes sold was up 5.5% in May while condo/loft/TIC sales were unchanged.
Inventory stands at 1.8 months for single family homes, down 25% year-on-year, and 2.3 months for condo/loft/TICs, also down 25%.
December 2016 – Ho Ho Hum
Entering the heart of the holiday season, the number of sales and sales prices were mixed in the single family home and condominium/loft/TIC markets.
Single family home median sales prices dipped in November to $1,372,500 from October's all time high of $1,407,500, but are still up $110,000, or 8.7%, from November, 2015.
In condominium/loft/TIC sales, median sold prices have been bobbing up and down between $1,000,000 and $1,150,000 for the past two years, and closed November at $1,044,500, just above the $1,023,500 where they started in January. Year-on-year, there is a 6.9%, or $78,000, decrease in the median sold price.
Inventory levels in November took their typical seasonal nosedive, dropping to just 1.7 months of inventory for single family homes and 2.1 months for condo/loft/TICs.
Finally, the median percent of list price received for single family homes was the lowest it's been since January 2015: 106.8%. This could indicate that prices are peaking in the single family home market.
The information contained in this report is taken from a variety of sources including SFARMLS, SPUR, the City of San Francisco Planning Department, the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and others. The data may have errors, omissions and be subject to revisions and is not warranted. It is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed. Questions may be directed to Keller Williams San Francisco | 415.483.9285 | CalBRE 01995149 | © Keller Williams San Francisco 2016 read more →
November 2016 – After the Election
The local election brought two significant changes that will affect the San Francisco real estate market. First, Measure W passed, significantly raising the transfer tax on residential and commercial properties of $5,000,000 or more, from an additional 12.5% at the low end to 20% at $25,000,000 and above. Second, measure X now requires developers who convert Production, Design & Repair Use, Institutional Community Use, and Arts Activities Use to not only replace the space on a 1:1 basis but also get a conditional use permit from the Planning Department to do so. What this means is that developers can no longer purchase buildings and convert the use to office or residential, even if those uses are allowed for that area, unless they also build back the use they've displaced.
An unanticipated negative result of the presidential election is that interest rates jumped .25%-.375% higher in just two days. This is only the second time that significant a rise has happened in two days. The immediate effect of this on housing sales is that buyers borrowing capacity just dropped.
For example, let's say someone qualified last week for a $1,000,000 loan at 3.75%.
This week, with the higher interest rate, they only qualify for a $956,000 loan. So, buyers can afford less so offers go down, and then sales prices go down.
In looking backwards at the sales data, October brought its seasonal home sales boomlet, with the second highest number of single family home sales this year. The median price of $1,407,000, 11% higher than last October, and just above May' 2015's previous peak of $1,400,000.
The number of Condos/TIC's sold was down but the median price popped up to $1,164,000, just above June's peak of $1,162,500. That's up 6.3% from October 2015.
The information contained in this report is taken from a variety of sources including SFARMLS, SPUR, the City of San Francisco Planning Department, the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and others. The data may have errors, omissions and be subject to revisions and is not warranted. It is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed. Questions may be directed to Keller Williams San Francisco | 415.483.9285 | CalBRE 01995149 | © Keller Williams San Francisco 2016 read more →
August 2016 – The Shift Has Started
At last week's Keller Williams Mega Camp in Austin, Texas, Co-Founder and Chairman Gary Keller focused heavily on the Shift that is beginning in the real estate market and how sellers, buyers and agents must be preparing for it.
What's the Shift? It's the inevitable cyclicality of the real estate sales market. It is the constant tide flowing from a sellers market to a balanced market to a buyers market to a balanced market and back to a sellers market.
In San Francisco and the Bay Area, we have been in a strong sellers market for the past three years. This year in San Francisco, single family home median prices peaked in February at $1,390,000 and have been trending down since then, currently at $1,335,000 in July. In a normal buying season, median price peaks in June or July (as it did in the past three years).
198 single family homes sold in July, down sharply from June's 245, and also the lowest number of July sales in four years.
In the Condo/Loft market, median price has been bouncing around $1.1M for the past 16 months. This June's $1,162,500 was the top so far (a fraction above last June's $1,150,000), but it dropped sharply ($100,000!) in July to $1,062,500. Count on June being the top of the market for this cycle.
Mimicking the falling number of single family home sales, the 220 condo/lofts sold in July was also the lowest number of July sales for the past four years.
How to prepare? When pricing property, sellers and agents should be looking at three sets of data:
- Past Sales
- Current Competition
- Forecasted Trending
Once the market has started shifting, the critical action is to get out ahead of a falling curve. A great question to ask is "How much of the gain from the last three years do you want to give up? Because in a down-trending market, that's the cost of incorrect pricing – the longer the property is on the market, the more of that gain is lost.
As in June, year-on-year Median Days on Market are up considerably for Resale Condos-Lofts clocking in this month at a 50% increase over July 2015. Likewise, Single Family Homes also continued the upwards trend , at 37% ahead of last July's number. We still have a strong sellers market, but buyers are shopping more and standing on the sidelines more.
Months Supply of Inventory dropped slightly from June to July for Resale Condos-Lofts and was level for Single Family Homes. It is up, however, year-on-year (see next page for details)
Single Family Homes New Listings dropped by 18 from June to July, 2016 and is also down 124 year-to-date from 2015.
Resale Condos/Lofts is also down year-to-date, with 76, or 4.4%, fewer new listings in 2016 than 2015.
Why Months of Inventory is Rising:
Single Family homes have had 115 fewer sales in 2016 than 2015, while the number of new homes on the market has also fallen, but only by 124. Likewise, Resale Condo/Lofts have had 92 fewer sales year-to-date than 2015, while the number of new listings has also fallen, but only by 76.
So, we have a less active sales market, coupled with a slight inventory build up, which leads to a larger months-of-inventory calculation. read more →
Recessions, Recoveries & Bubbles
Below is a look at the past 30+ years of San Francisco Bay Area real estate boom and bust cycles. Financial-market cycles have been around for hundreds of years, all the way back to the Dutch tulip mania of the 1600's. While future cycles will vary in their details, the causes, effects and trend lines are often quite similar. Looking at cycles gives us more context to how the market works over time and where it may be going — much more than dwelling in the immediacy of the present with excitable pronouncements of "The market's crashing and won't recover in our lifetimes!" or "The market's crazy hot and the only place it can go is up!" Note: Most of these charts generally apply to higher-priced Bay Area housing markets, such as those found in much of San Francisco, Marin, Central Contra Costa and San Mateo Counties. (Different market price segments had bubbles, crashes and recoveries of differing magnitudes in the last cycle, which is addressed at the end of this report.)
Market Cycles: Simplified Overviews
Up, Down, Flat, Up, Down, Flat…(Repeat)
The first chart below charts changes in dollar values, according to the Case-Shiller Index method (January 2000 = a home value of 100). The second chart graphs ups and downs by percentage changes at each turning point.
Smoothing out the bumps delivers the simplified overviews above for the past 30 years. Whatever the phase of the cycle, up or down, while it's going on people think it will last forever: Every time the market crashes, the consensus becomes that real estate won't recover for decades. But the economy mends, the population grows, people start families, inflation builds up over the years, and repressed demand of those who want to own their own homes builds up. In the early eighties, mid-nineties and in 2012, after about 4 years of a recessionary housing market, this repressed demand jumps back in (or "explodes" might be a good description) and prices start to rise again. It's not unusual for a big surge in values to occur in the first couple of years after a recovery begins.
All bubbles are ultimately based on irrational and/or criminal behavior, whether exemplified by junk bonds, Savings & Loan frauds, dotcom stock hysteria, "Dow 30,000" exuberance, "the end of the business cycle" nonsense, gorging on unsustainable debt, runaway greed (without any corresponding desire to produce anything of value) or dishonest financial engineering, but the most recent subprime-financing/ loan-fraud bubble was even more abnormal than usual, because it was fueled by large numbers of buyers purchasing homes that they clearly couldn't afford (liar loans, deceptive teaser rates and the abysmal decline in underwriting standards) with no actual investment in the properties being bought (no down payment, 100%+ loans).
This Recovery vs. Previous Recoveries
The light blue columns in the above chart graph the home-value appreciation that occurred in the first three years of each recovery – our latest rebound has been somewhat quicker than other recoveries, probably due to 1) the depth of the previous market decline, and 2) the huge, high-tech employment, population and wealth boom that has played out in San Francisco and nearby counties. The gray columns chart the appreciation of past recoveries from the beginning to peak value for each cycle (except for the latest cycle, for which the peak has not yet been defined), and the red bars delineate the percentage declines from those peaks, pursuant to the market adjustments that occurred. As always, note that market appreciation and depreciation rates can vary widely by county, community and neighborhood.
Surprisingly consistent: Over the past 30+ years, the period between a recovery beginning and a bubble popping has run 5 to 7 years. We are currently about 4 years into the current recovery, which started in early 2012. Periods of market recession/doldrums following the popping of a bubble have typically lasted about 4 years. (The 2001 dotcom bubble and 9-11 crisis drop being the exception.) Generally speaking, within about 2 years of a new recovery commencing, previous peak values (i.e. those at the height of the previous bubble) are re-attained — among other reasons, there is the recapture of inflation during the doldrums years. In this current recovery, those homes hit hardest by the subprime loan crisis — typically housing at the lowest end of the price scale in the less affluent neighborhoods, which experienced by far the biggest bubble and biggest crash — are taking longer to re-attain peak values. However, higher priced homes — which predominate in San Francisco, Marin and San Mateo Counties — have already surged well past their previous peaks.
This does not mean that these recently recurring time periods necessarily reflect some natural law in housing market cycles, or that they can be relied upon to predict the future. Real estate markets can be affected by a bewildering number of economic, political and even natural-event factors that are exceedingly difficult to predict.
In the 2 charts below tracking the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index for the 5-County San Francisco Metro Area, the data points refer to home values as a percentage of those in January 2000. January 2000 equals 100 on the trend line: 66 means prices were 66% of those in January 2000; 175 signifies prices 75% higher.
1983 through 1995
(After Recession) Boom, Decline, Doldrums
In the above chart, the country is just coming out of the late seventies, early eighties recession – huge inflation, stagnant economy ("stagflation") and incredibly high interest rates (hitting 18%). As the economy recovered, the housing market started to appreciate and this surge in values began to accelerate deeper into the decade. Over 6 years, the market appreciated about 100%. Finally, the late eighties "Greed is good!" version of irrational exuberance — junk bonds, stock market swindles, the Savings & Loan implosion, as well as the late 1989 earthquake here in the Bay Area — ended the party.
Recession arrived, home prices sank, sales activity plunged and the market stayed basically flat for 4 to 5 years. Still, even after the decline, home values were 70% higher than when the boom began in 1984.
1996 to Present
(After Recession) Boom, Bubble, Crash, Doldrums, Recovery
This next cycle looks similar but elongated. In 1996, after years of recession, the market suddenly took off and continued to accelerate til 2001. The dotcom bubble pop and September 2001 attacks created a market hiccup, but then the subprime and refinance insanity, degraded loan underwriting standards, mortgage securitization, and claims that real estate never declines, super-charged a housing bubble. Overall, from 1996 to 2006/2008, the market went through an astounding period of appreciation. (Different areas hit peak values at times from 2006 to early 2008.) The air started to go out of some markets in 2007, and in September 2008 came the financial market crash.
Across the country, home values fell 15% to 60%, peak to bottom, depending on the area and how badly it was affected by foreclosures — most of San Francisco got off comparatively lightly with declines in the 15% to 25% range. The least affluent areas got hammered hardest by distressed sales and price declines; the most affluent were typically least affected. Then the market stayed flat for about 4 years, albeit with a few short-term fluctuations. Supply and demand dynamics began to change in mid-2011, leading to the market recovery of 2012.
The Recovery since 2012 (Case-Shiller)
This chart above looks specifically at home price appreciation since 2012 when the current market recovery began. Generally speaking, the spring selling seasons have seen the most dramatic surges in appreciation. It's not unusual for appreciation to slow or flatten in the second half of the year. This chart below illustrates the connection between seasonality and appreciation over the past 4 years.
The Panorama: From the late 1980's to Present
San Francisco Median Sales Price Appreciation
The charts below look at median sales price movements in San Francisco County itself over the shorter and longer terms. These do not correlate exactly with Case-Shiller – firstly because C-S tracks a "metro area" of 5 Bay Area counties, and secondly, because median sales prices are often affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value (such as significant changes in the distressed, luxury and new-construction market segments; in interest rates; seasonality; buyer profile; and so on).
The Current Recovery: 2012 – Present
In 2011, San Francisco began to show signs of perking up. An improving economy, soaring rents, low interest rates and growing buyer demand coupled with a low inventory of listings began to put upward pressure on prices. In 2012, as in 1996, the market abruptly grew frenzied with competitive bidding. The city's affluent neighborhoods led the recovery, and those considered particularly desirable by newly wealthy, high-tech workers showed the largest gains. However, virtually the entire city soon followed to experience similar rapid price appreciation.
San Francisco median home sales prices increased dramatically in 2012, 2013, 2014, and then again in the first half of 2015. In the second half of 2014, after the spring frenzy had cooled off, home prices flattened out, which is what occurred in 2015 as well. At this point in early 2016, we are waiting to see what the new spring market brings.
Longer-Term: 1993 – Present
Comparing San Francisco, California & National
Median Price Appreciation
San Francisco has been out-performing the overall state and national markets.
San Francisco Rents
Besides, home prices, home rental rates are major indicators of what is occurring with housing costs and the local economy. If anything, rents have appreciated even more extremely than home prices in San Francisco (and other areas of the Bay Area) – and, of course, renters get no advantages from low interest rates, multiple tax deductions and advantages, or home-price appreciation over time. One classic indicator of an overpriced home market is when prices outpace rents. So far, this has not happened in San Francisco: Both types of housing costs have soared in recent years.
It's interesting to note that SF rents actually dropped much further after the dotcom bubble burst than after the 2008 financial markets crash, though the latter was a much more destructive economic event. It suggests that local rents may be more affected by the simple ebb and flow of high-tech hiring and employment than by other macro-economic issues, such as stock market changes. If one loses one's job and the likelihood of finding another in the area plunges, it may be an immediate imperative to move to a less expensive rental area (pressuring rents lower); if one's net worth plunges with a stock market crash, one may no longer afford to buy a home (pressuring home prices lower). This is an oversimplification, but may still go some ways to explaining the different scale of reaction by purchase and rental markets to different macro-economic events.
Mortgage Interest Rates since 1981
It's much harder to decipher any cycles in 30-year mortgage rates, but rates remain astonishingly low by any historical measure, and this, of course, plays a huge role in the ongoing cost of homeownership and the real estate market.
More information regarding underlying demographic and economic conditions of the current real estate market can be found here: 10 Factors behind the SF Market
Housing Affordability Index (HAI) Cycles, 1991 – Present
Unsurprisingly, there is a reverse correlation between the trend lines for housing affordability rates and those of real estate price cycles (above). HAI rates jump higher in market recessions, peaking at the bottom of the market, and then decline as the market recovers, bottoming out when peak prices are hit. The lowest Bay Area housing affordability housing index rates (probably in history) were hit in 2007 right before the 2008 market crash. The Bay Area overall is still above those lows in its current recovery.
The 2008 San Francisco Bay Area real estate crash was not caused just by a local affordability crisis: It was triggered by macro-economic events in financial markets which affected real estate markets across the country. It's important to note that in the past (certainly going back at least 50 years), major corrections to Bay Area home prices did not occur in isolation, but parallel to national economic events (though the 1989 earthquake, which occurred just before the national recession began, certainly exacerbated the local downturn). Ongoing speculation on local "bubbles" often neglect to remember this.
Still, dwindling affordability is certainly a symptom of overheating, of a market being pushed perhaps too high. Looking at the chart above, it's interesting to note that the markets of all Bay Area counties hit similar and historic lows at previous market peaks in 2006-2007, i.e. the pressure that began in the San Francisco market spread out to pressurize surrounding markets until all the areas bottomed out in affordability. This suggests that one factor or symptom of a correction, is not just a feverish San Francisco market, but that buyers can't find affordable options anywhere in the area. We are certainly seeing that radiating pressure on home prices occurring now, starting in San Francisco and San Mateo (Silicon Valley) and surging out to all points of the compass.
San Francisco, with a Housing Affordability Index (HAI) reading of 11% is about 3% above its all-time historic low in Q3 2007, but affordability in most other Bay Area counties, while generally declining, still remain significantly above their previous lows. By this measure, the situation we saw in 2007-2008 has not yet been replicated.
Significant increases in mortgage interest rates would affect affordability quickly and dramatically, as interest rates along with, of course, housing prices and household incomes, play the dominant roles in this calculation.
Bay Area Housing Affordability Report
Housing Affordability Rate Calculation Methodology
Inflation & Interested Rate-Adjusted Housing Cost (since 1993)
The Home Cost Trends chart below reflects a very approximate calculation of monthly home payment costs (principal, interest, property tax and insurance) adjusted for inflation– i.e. in 1993 dollars – using annual median house sales prices, average annual 30-year interest rates, and assuming a 20% downpayment. The average annual compounding CPI inflation rate fluctuated, but averaged approximately 2.4% over the period, and average annual mortgage rates fluctuated from 8.4% to 3.7% (see mortgage interest rate charts earlier in this report), which, as mentioned before, had a huge impact on financing costs.
Adjusting for inflation and interest rate changes means that though the median sales price is now far above that of 2007, the monthly housing cost is still a little bit below then. This isn't a perfect apples-to-apples comparison because it doesn't take into account that the amount of the 20% downpayment increased significantly over the time period. Still, since ongoing cost is typically an important factor for homebuyers (at least those getting financing), this affords another angle on our market.
Different Bay Area Market Segments:
Different Bubbles, Crashes & Recoveries
The comparison composite chart dramatically illustrates the radically different market movements of different Bay Area housing price segments since 2000. Farther below areupdated individual price charts for each price segment.
Again, all numbers in the Case-Shiller chart relate to a January 2000 value of 100: A reading of 220 signifies a home value 120% above that of January 2000. The chart above illustrate how different market segments in the 5-county SF metro area had bubbles, crashes and now recoveries of enormously different magnitudes, mostly depending on the impact of subprime lending. The lower the price range, the bigger the bubble and crash. In the city itself, where many of our home sales would constitute an ultra-high price segment, if Case-Shiller broke it out, many of our neighborhoods have risen to new peak values. The lowest price segment, more prevalent in other counties, may not recover peak values for years. Updated C-S charts for each price segment are below.
If one disregarded the different bubbles and crashes, home price appreciation for all three segments since January 2000 is now in the 120% – 124% range. Just recently the low-price tier has begun taking the lead in home price appreciation (though, again, it remains far below its previous peak value).
Updated Case-Shiller Price-Tier Charts
Low-Price Tier Homes: Under $560,000 as of 2/16
Huge subprime bubble (170% appreciation, 2000 – 2006) & huge crash
(60% decline, 2008 – 2011). Strong recovery but well below 2006-07 peak values.
Mid-Price Tier Homes: $560,00 to $900,000 as of 2/16
Smaller bubble (119% appreciation, 2000 – 2006) and crash (42% decline)
than low-price tier. Strong recovery has put it back to its 2006 peak.
High-Price Tier Homes: Over $900,000 as of 2/16
84% appreciation, 2000 – 2007, and 25% decline, peak to bottom.
Now climbing well above previous 2007 peak values.
San Francisco Neighborhood Values
San Francisco New-Housing Pipeline Update
These analyses were made in good faith with data from sources deemed reliable, but they may contain errors and are subject to revision. All numbers are approximate and percentage changes will vary slightly depending on the exact begin and end dates used for recoveries, peak prices and bottom-of-market values.
Copyright 2016 Paragon Real Estate Group.
San Francisco House & Condo Markets Diverge
In the first quarter of 2016, various market segments in the city began to trend in significantly different directions. Houses, especially those below $2 million, are still often selling in a frenzy of bidding: Recent reports of houses selling with 5, 10 or more competing offers are not uncommon, especially in neighborhoods considered more affordable (by San Francisco standards). Demand remains very high, supply remains extremely low, and new house construction is virtually nil.
However, thousands of new-construction condos have hit the market in recent years or are arriving shortly, with many thousands more in the 5-year pipeline. In recent years, the new supply added to the usual resale-condo inventory still did not keep up with demand, but that seems to be shifting, especially at the more expensive end of the condo market. As of early April, the number of condo listings actively for sale in MLS is up over 40% year over year, and that does not include most of the new-construction condo units hitting the market (not listed in MLS).
This does not mean that condos are not selling, because many are at top prices. But the demand-per-listing ratio is declining, multiple offers are less common, and more listings are expiring without being sold. This particularly appears to be the case in those neighborhoods where most of the new construction projects are concentrated, and, again, the luxury-condo segment appears to be most affected. Apparently, the developer rush to build large projects of very expensive condos, possibly outpacing long-term demand for such units, is also playing out in Manhattan (where admittedly luxury condos are much more expensive).
It is unclear at this point whether new condo projects themselves are being affected in their rate of sales or sales prices. These condos often go into contract during the construction phase, long before sales actually close, and access to information during that period is very limited. There can be no doubt that they comprise serious competition to resale condos in the areas they're being built.
Please note: The data of one quarter is not definitive and Q1 was a very volatile period for the financial markets, which may have had a short-term effect that might now shift. SF is also a city of micro-markets, so what applies in one district may not apply in another. Q2, just beginning, is typically the busiest of the year, and market trends will become much clearer in coming months. Last but not least, in real estate, what we see today generally reflects the market 4 to 8 weeks ago due to the gap between listings coming on market, offers being negotiated, and sales finally closing escrow.
Market Supply & Demand Trends
by Property Type and Price Segment
It should be noted that some of the Q1 2016 MLS statistics shown below, which appear to illustrate a cooling of certain market segments in San Francisco, would in most other areas of the country often be considered signs of crazy-hot markets.
An astonishing 84% of Q1 2016 SF house sales under $2 million sold for over asking price, a very small decline from the most active quarters of last year. The percentage for more expensive houses is 16 percentage points lower than less expensive houses, but still above Q1 2015. Condos, also shown in two price segments, have lower percentages than any time in the past 4 quarters. We shall see if those percentages rebound in Q2, as usually occurs once the spring season warms up, or whether increased inventory dampens overbidding going forward.
The same trends seen in the first chart above apply to this illustration of the median percentage of sales price over list price over the past 5 quarters. For houses under $2 million, the median percentage over asking price remains incredibly high at 12%, a clear sign of feverish competition between buyers. In contrast, luxury condos overall sold just a tiny bit above list price (less than one half of one percent), and in those districts seeing the most high-rise, luxury condo construction, the median sales price to list price percentage fell well below list price (not shown on chart). More supply means less competition and less sense of urgency in buyers; overbidding becomes rarer and buyers negotiate more aggressively.
Perhaps nothing is more indicative of a cooling market than increasing numbers of listings expiring and being withdrawn from the market without selling. Q1 2016 saw big jumps in expired/withdrawn condo listings over the first quarters of the previous 3 years. Many such listings end up coming back on the market at lower prices.
Again, houses under $2 million have maintained a very high level of listings going into contract on a monthly basis. High percentages of this statistic keep inventory low even when increased inventory starts coming on market, analogous to putting food in front of a very fast, hungry eater. However, if a low percentage of listings accepting offers is coupled with increasing numbers of new listings, inventory starts mounting quickly, because more unsold listings from previous months get added on top of the additional new listings streaming onto the market. The slow-eating diner is outpaced by the delivery of new courses, and the table fills up with uneaten food.
San Francisco Median Home Sales Prices
House & Condo, by Quarter
Chart: Median Price Trends since 1993
So far, any market cooling that has occurred is not showing up in Q1 median sales prices: Median prices for both houses and condos remain close to the high points hit in spring 2015. However, for the first time in 4 years, condo median prices did notjump in the first quarter of the year, though neither was there any significant decline.2012 to 2015, overheated spring selling seasons of very high demand and deeply inadequate supplies of homes for sale have fueled most of the home-price appreciation occurring each year in San Francisco. We shall soon know whether this trend will continue this spring, or whether the median prices of some market segments will finally plateau, or even adjust downward with changing supply and demand dynamics.
Employment Statistics
Perhaps nothing underpins an appreciating real estate market more than increasing numbers of people moving into an area to take new jobs, especially well paid ones. These charts illustrate the recent explosion of employment in San Francisco and the Bay Area. Of course, employment trends can slow or even reverse directions as occurred after the dotcom bubble burst. It is interesting to note that SF employment (and rents) fell much more after the dotcom adjustment than after the 2008 financial markets crash. On the other hand, SF home prices only temporarily dipped in 2002, while dropping rapidly in late 2008/early 2009 and then remaining depressed until the recovery began in 2012.
Chart: SF High-Tech Employment Trends
Stock Markets & Interest Rates
After all the travail regarding the stock market volatility since last summer, it is now, as of early April, pretty much back to where it began. And interest rates have actually fallen since the Fed raised the benchmark rate in mid-December. These conditions are typically considered very positive for real estate markets, though both can be subject to sudden and significant change.
Chart: Short-term Interest Rate Trends
Other recent reports you might find interesting:
San Francisco New-Housing Pipeline
San Francisco Neighborhood Affordability
Seasonality & Real Estate Markets
Bay Area Housing Affordability
S&P Case-Shiller Index for SF Metro Area
These analyses were made in good faith with data from sources deemed reliable, but they may contain errors and are subject to revision. Statistics are generalities and all numbers should be considered approximate. New construction condos not listed or sold on MLS are not counted in these statistics, though they often affect market dynamics. Sales statistics of one month generally reflect offers negotiated 4 to 6 weeks earlier, thus a fair number of YTD 2016 sales reflect market activity in late 2015.
© 2016 Paragon Real Estate Group read more →
San Francisco Real Estate Market Report (including 13 custom charts)
Monthly and seasonal fluctuations in median sales prices are quite normal and do not necessarily say much about changes in fair market values. For that one must look at longer-term trends. However, for what it is worth, the median price in February was the highest since it peaked in May of 2015. If this spring is like the past 4 springs in which a very-high-demand/ very-low-supply dynamic prevailed, then sustained home-price appreciation may start showing up in the statistics during the next few months.
Chart: Median Price Trends since 1993
Chart: Case-Shiller Metro Area Home Price Index
We say this very preliminarily since the 2016 market has just gotten started after the holiday doldrums, but it appears that San Francisco homebuyers are generally shrugging off the recent volatility in the stock market. That doesn't necessarily mean there will be a repeat of the overheated markets of the past few years. Much more will be known once the spring selling season really gets into full swing.
San Francisco Construction Boom Continues
Developers continue to add projects with thousands of new units to the San Francisco new-housing pipeline. If they are built as currently planned (as of Q4 2015), the city should add over 60,000 new housing units (market-rate condos and apartments, and affordable and social-project housing) over the next 5 to 6 years, with another 25,000 in 3 huge projects that may take decades to complete. However, new developments are being constantly added to the pipeline, and existing plans are regularly altered. They may even be abandoned if economic or political conditions dramatically change.
So far, increased supply due to completed new construction has not created significant downward pressure on prices. This may change as construction completion accelerates in coming years, however almost all of the market-rate development is directed toward the more (or most) expensive end of the condo and apartment market. House sales will continue to become a smaller and smaller percentage of the SF market, which may play a role in enhancing their values.
Our full article: San Francisco Housing Pipeline
Where to Buy a Home in San Francisco for the Money You Want to Spend
The charts above are 3 of 8 in our updated report: San Francisco Neighborhood Affordability
Seasonality & the Spring Market
Overbidding by Month
Luxury Home Listings Accepting Offers by Month
The San Francisco real estate market is deeply affected by seasonality, which shows up in the rise and fall of inventory, buyer demand, overbidding and median prices. For the past 4 years, spring has experienced the most feverish buyer competition for new listings, which led to the highest overbidding percentages, as seen in the first chart above. (111% signifies an average sales price 11% over the asking price.) In February 2016, the percentage over list price started climbing again after the usual slowdown of the winter holidays.
The luxury home segment is even more dramatically affected by seasonality than the general market. As seen in the second chart above tracking accepted offers, expensive home sales typically soar to their high point in spring, drop during the summer holidays, rebound for the relatively short autumn season, and then plunge deeply in mid-winter. This ebb and flow of high-end sales is one of the factors behind short-term, seasonal ups and downs in median sales price. So far in 2016, luxury home closings have been comparable to early 2015, but we are just entering the main selling season now.
Our full overview: Seasonality & the SF Real Estate Market
Mortgage Interest Rate Trends
Short-Term Changes since the Fed Raised Rates
Chart: Long-Term Interest Rate Trends
Since the Federal Reserve Bank raised the benchmark interest rate in mid-December, interest rates have actually dropped by about 8% (as of March 3), which makes a significant difference in monthly mortgage costs and loan underwriting qualification. This downward pressure on rates is generally ascribed to the dramatic volatility in the stock market since the year began. (Investors often pour money into bonds in times of stock market volatility, which then lowers the interest rate.) It is famously difficult to predict interest rate movements, which can be sudden and dramatic, but for the time being, they are getting closer to the all-time low in 2013. That is good news for the real estate market, while it lasts.
Bay Area Housing Affordability by County
Chart: Long-Term Trends in Housing Affordability
Housing affordability is one of the biggest political issues in the city and the Bay Area. The California Association of Realtors recently released its Housing Affordability Index (HAI) for the 4th quarter of 2015, and above are 3 of 10 charts in our updated analysis. San Francisco is now 3 percentage points above its all-time low of 8%, last reached in Q3 2007, however there has not yet occurred the convergence in extreme low affordability across Bay Area counties seen in 2007. Interest rates play a big role in affordability calculations and, as noted earlier, they have been falling in 2016.
Our full report: Bay Area Housing Affordability
San Francisco & U.S. Rents
Chart: Long-Term SF Rent Trends
Despite ticking down a tiny bit at the end of 2015, San Francisco rents remain the highest in the nation. Since rents are not ameliorated by low interest rates and the numerous tax advantages pertaining to homeownership, new renters in the city bear the worst brunt of the housing affordability crisis, even more so than new homebuyers. A number of large, new rental apartment buildings have recently been coming on the market and many more are planned. This new inventory may eventually help provide significant rental-rate relief, however almost all the market-rate projects being built feature luxury apartments priced at the very high end: New studio units can rent for $3500 per month and more. read more →


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Mentors help transition middle, high school students in McKeesport schools
As part of their transition from middle to high school, McKeesport Area eighth-graders talked with upperclassmen and community mentors on Monday.
Volunteers visited Founders' Hall Middle School classrooms to explain the differences in expectations as students progress from middle to high school, from high school to higher education, and then into the working world.
"Ninth grade is such an important year," school director Trisha Gadson said. "It's a decision point for whether students succeed or end up dropping out of school. We want students to understand the significance of high school and encourage them to do their best."
Founders' Hall principal Karen Chapman said students should recognize that their methods of handling a transition will impact their success.
"The way they learn to focus and stay on track today will affect them for years to come," Chapman said.
By having McKeesport Area graduates and upperclassmen speak directly to students, the kids are hearing from folks to whom they can relate, Chapman explained.
"These are former students who sat right where our eighth-graders are sitting today," she said. "They can talk about what it took for them to become successful, what they did after graduation and what they did through four years of high school to get there."
Mentor Aaron Johnson, who leads McKeesport's YouthCAST teens through community programming, said students must understand the academic and social aspects of the high school transition.
"When we have the opportunity to explain the difference between middle school and high school, we get to dispel anxiety," Johnson told fellow mentors. "Tell them what's different about going to high school — what issues you may have had and what they can look forward to."
Sophomore Jessica Washowich said high school is an opportunity for students to be involved in a variety of clubs and sports and gain new experiences.
"This is one of the times when you find out who you are and what you want to be in life," she said.
Mentors encouraged students to stay focused on their school work, take part in school activities, and grow with confidence.
"It helped me a lot to know what I need to do throughout high school," eighth-grader Connor Shields said. "The mentors showed me what is more and less important, how to focus and to be prepared."
Jennifer R. Vertullo is a staff writer for Trib Total Media.


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How The Holy Spirit Gives Us Greater Authority
Contributed by Paul Fritz on Oct 18, 2000 (message contributor)
Summary: The Holy Spirit gives you the authority to be lifted from your sorrow, depression or feelings of hopelessness. Paul prays, "May the God of hope fill you with all joy and peace as you trust in him, so that you may overflow with hope by the power of the Hol
Where Can We Find Greater Authority?
Ills. [Everyone] born of God overcomes the world. --1 John 5:4
Most celebrations of national independence mark the day of final victory in the struggle for freedom. Perhaps it's a mark of our American brashness that we celebrate the adoption of our Declaration of Independence, which occurred 7 years before the final treaty ending the Revolutionary War (September 3, 1783). The Declaration's adoption on July 4, 1776, burned the final bridges of Britain's authority over America. It was a bold and risky start. We still celebrate the beginning.
Christians often ask each other, "When did you accept Christ as your Savior?" That bold beginning of faith, which may have seemed at the time like the greatest risk in the world, is worth noting and celebrating. With spiritual battles looming ahead, we still salute the birth.
The apostle John said that eveyone "born of God overcomes the world. And this is the victory that has overcome the world--our faith" (1 Jn. 5:4).
"Born of God." Commencement, debut, unveiling. A step of faith. A new beginning. A break with the past. A humble confidence in the grace and power of a forgiving God. The start of true freedom. (Our Daily B Bread)
1. The Holy Spirit, as Lord, gives great authority to those who are involved with completing His great commission of Matthew 28:18-20. Jesus said, "You will receive power when the Holy Spirit comes on you; and you will be my witnesses in Jerusalem, and in all Judea and Samaria, and to the ends of the earth." (Acts 1:8) Ask the Lord to help you appropriate the power given to you for the fulfilling of the Lord's purpose of enlarging His kingdom and righteousness in every one of the 18,800 ethnic groups of the world.
2. The Holy Spirit gives authority to a plurality of Godly leaders for each church fellowship. Dr. Luke wrote, "They devoted themselves to the apostles' teaching and to the fellowship.... and many wonders and miraculous signs were done by the apostles." (Acts 2:42,43) Ask the Lord to help you assembly a group of Godly elders that can lead many new church fellowships to higher levels of quantitative and qualitative growth in their communities. A fellowship can only grow as mature as their leaders.
Ills. Joshua had just won two astounding victories, destroying both Jericho and Ai through the power of the Lord. The Gibeonites knew they would be next, so in fear they resorted to trickery to save their lives. They put on old clothes, took moldy bread with them, and made their way to the camp of Israel.
Joshua and the elders were completely taken in by the ruse. Without consulting the Lord, they entered into a covenant with the enemies of Israel whom God had told them to destroy.
I see several spiritual lessons in this account. If we put human reasoning before divine guidance, walking by sight rather than by faith, we are sure to err! We should dread the "moldy bread" of Satan's deceptive strategies much more than the "lion's roar" of his frontal attacks. Even though we have met the more obvious assaults of the enemy with victories like those of Jericho and Ai, overconfidence can lead us into a trap. If we are governed by the authority of the Word and put our total dependence in the power of the Spirit, we will not be easily caught in Satan's web. (Our Daily Bread)
3. The Holy Spirit identifies the root causes of peoples' rebellion and troubles. The Spirit authoritatively spoke through Paul in pointing out the reasons for Israel's problems. Dr. Luke wrote, "They disagreed among themselves and began to leave after Paul had made this final statement, "The Holy Spirit when he said through Isaiah the prophet: 'Go to this people and say, 'You will be ever hearing but never understanding; you will be ever seeing but never perceiving.' For this people's heart has become calloused; they hardly hear with their ears, and they have closed their eyes... Otherwise, they might see and understand with their hearts and turn, and I would heal them." (Isaiah 6:9-10) Ask the Lord to give you greater discernment to authoritatively identify the root causes of peoples' resistance to the will of God.
4. The Holy Spirit makes us authoritatively competent to minister to His people. Paul wrote, "He has made us competent as ministers of a new covenant - not of the letter but of the Spirit; for the letter kills, but the Spirit gives life." (2 Cor. 3:6) Ask the Lord to help you utilize the authority you have to minister through teaching, preaching, and evangelizing for His purposes and results. Do not doubt God's ability to make you competent to do what He has called you to accomplish.
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text: Talking Union Basics (TUB): Introduces members to the PSAC and prepares them for more advanced union education. It provides an historical and structural overview of the union, introduces participants to the collective agreement and gives them a chance for hands-on practice in problem-solving. WHEN: Saturday-February 11th & Sunday-February 12th, 2017 TIME: 9:00 A.M. - 5:00 P.M. WHERE: FORT ALBANY (VENUE TO BE DETERMINED)