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Latest News
West Kendall returning to normal after shootout
When Doris Corveas' husband called to say he was stuck in a road block near their West Kendall home, she could barely hear him over the sound of circling helicopters.
She stepped outside to take a look.
What she saw was the aftermath of a violent shootout between police and suspected marijuana growers in the Westwind Lakes development, which had left a burning home, a body inside and a neighborhood in chaos.
Within 18 hours, police had arrested a suspect who fled the home, and said a body found hanging some 10 blocks away was a third man involved in the shootout.
Police identified the man arrested as Brian Kelly Howell, 29. The body found hanging in an apparent suicide was Dell Peter DiGiovanni, 50.
Police said they were still looking for a third suspect, Michael Steven DiGiovanni, 27. As of Wednesday evening, they had not identified the body found in the charred home.
Investigators offered few details of the narcotics investigation that drew them to the West Kendall neighborhood of pink and yellow stucco homes with neatly manicured front lawns.
The three suspected marijuana growers didn't appear to have a major criminal background – just a few traffic infractions in Virginia and Florida.
The men had lived in the rented, red-roofed house at Southwest 57th Street and 154th Court, for several years. They mainly kept to themselves, and didn't try to fit in, neighbors said.
"It was little things you notice that were off," said one resident who said she lived in the area for more than 20 years and did not want to be identified.
One of the men who lived there once crashed his car into a tree and split it in half. Neighbors attributed small acts of vandalism to them, including mailboxes knocked over.
Still, the shootout that started the all-night manhunt was not something they expected.
It all started at about 7 p.m. Tuesday, when Miami-Dade narcotics detectives arrived at 15415 Southwest 57th Street to check on a tip about a possible marijuana grow house.
As police approached, the shooting started. Officers returned fire and said three men escaped on foot. For reasons yet unknown, the house caught fire.
Police units from around the county responded, engaging in a manhunt that kept the neighborhood locked down all night.
One of the officers involved in the shootout was Edwin Diaz, who was wounded in a similar shooting outside a Naranja grow house in 2008.
"He certainly seems to have nine lives," police union president John Rivera said Wednesday. "It's commendable."
If indeed the property was a hydroponic grow house, it was part of a lucrative national trend of indoor marijuana farms that has "been going on for quite some time, at least a decade, in South Florida," said James N. Hall, an epidemiologist at Nova Southeastern University.
Hall described these grow houses as up to $1 million annual, mom-and-pop type operations inside three- or four-bedroom houses using the guise of suburbia to cover up their criminal activities producing "a very high grade, very expensive grade of marijuana" in four crops a year.
"It's quite often the case that neighbors are surprised," Hall said.
But as this week's carnage in Kendall illustrated, it can have a sinister side. Raids by police or rival gangs can turn violent because these houses laden with cash crops and sophisticated equipment are typically protected by firearms.
More typically, Hall said, a SWAT team can move in without gunfire by detecting a grow house through high electrical usage or infrared light sensors that allow authorities the element of surprise.
While rarely violent, grow-house raids are increasingly part of the rhythm of life in Florida.
In June 2009, the authorities announced a one-day crackdown called Operation Eagle Claw shut down 120 residential hydroponic pot labs, seized 6,800 plants and saw 142 people arrested across all 67 of Florida's counties.
Miami Herald reporter David Ovalle contributed to this report.
A previous version of this article misstated the name of the neighborhood where the shootout took place.


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MetroKitchen will price match the TOTAL current price of any in-stock item from an authorized retail site. Black Friday and Cyber Monday special deals are EXCLUDED. Price match applies to the TOTAL price, including shipping/handling, gift with purchase and sales taxes.
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KZ 650 CSR Billet Triple
Bullit Custom Cycles new beautifully designed 6061 billet aluminum upper triple machined your '81-'83 Kawasaki KZ 650 with a 36mm fork! The billet triples have 2- 6mm mounting bosses 50mm apart on the underside of the top triple to accommodate various aftermarket and Bullit designed instrument mounts for 1.9" and 2.25" aftermarket gauges. The new overall design is a result of working together with Old School Speed so the top triple has rounded top edge with a stylish inset and make an excellent replacement for the stock cast item when using clip-on bars! The piece was designed to make it very easy for the average Cafe racer builder to modify his or her motorcycle.
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Billet Upper Triples


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Mandisa Volunteers - Phoenix, AZ
Loop Volunteers
Saturday, October 19, 2019 from 5:00 PM to 10:15 PM (MST)
Thank you for your willingness to volunteer with Loop! Please join us in making Mandisa's Girls Night Out Tour a success.
Q: Where can I contact the organizer with any questions?
A: Please email: email@example.com
Q: Will we get a free ticket into the concert?
A: When you sign up to volunteer you will not recieve a ticket (seat) into the concert. We will let you take shifts to go in a watch, but cannot promise a seat. You may end up standing in the back. Please note, you will stay busy! It is our best intention to let you see some of the show and we will try our best to allow you time for a break. So plan on working the begining, intermission, and end of the concert.
Q: How important is it that I arrive from 5:00PM?
A: Very important! Volunteers will be checked in and escorted to merchandise promtly at 5:00PM. There is a mandatory training soon after. Please allow time for parking and getting to the entrance.
Q: How late will I need to stay?
A: We will need you until approximately 30 minutes after the concert finishes, this may be as late as 10:30PM. So be prepared to stay and help load out.
Q: Why is it important that I stay up to 30 minutes after the concert?
A: It's very important that you stay up to 30 minutes after the concert is over. When the concert finishes people tend to stop by the booths with questions or last minute purchases. The road reps also need help packing out and it's much harder if they are left alone to do all of this. We understand it gets late, however, we really need you to stay the whole time.
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A: Once you sign up, we will be sending you a couple confirmation emails with all the information you need. And if you ever have any questions you can always contact us at: email@example.com
Stay completely in the loop with concert updates, fun challenges,
& more by following our social media!
We are a company built to inspire and empower, by creating a platform for people to serve and use their God- given gifts and abilities. Our vision is to build a community of people who love the Lord and selflessly serve others out of the overflow of their relationship with Christ. We work with artists & non- profits to provide the best volunteers for their tours and events. We know without incredible volunteers these events wouldn't happen.
If you aren't in our community you are missing out on concert updates, opportunities to serve, encouragement, & more! Go to: www.loopevents.org
Join millions of people on Eventbrite.
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Congratulations to:
Margaret Jasinska - This Christmas I'm looking forward to making a pavlova topped with lots of cream, nectarines, blueberries and passionfruit. So nice because it's already gluten free and lovely and cool on a hot summer day.
Ellie Rose - This year i am looking forward to baking mince pie bomb Alaska's: a gluten free mince pie topped with homemade coconut milk ice cream and baked in a meringue shell, literally heaven on a plate!
Your numbers were pulled out of the magical random.org and you have each won a copy of the 'Irresistible for the Irritable' Cookbook by Sue Shepherd! You should have received an email from me earlier today, if you haven't please check your junk mail and email me at jas [@] glutenfreescallywag.com if it hasn't come through.
Now, onto my announcement - serious happy dances happening here people!
Last week my man surprised me with a lovely bottle of champagne to celebrate, because, you see, my kitchen, recipes and business plan has been approved by my local council to be able to bake my gluten free goods for you to gobble up. Yes - that's right everyone!
The Gluten Free Scallywag Bakery is now open for business!
It's taken me a while (as those select friends that knew about my plans would know!) but it's here and I can't wait to be able to help those of you in Perth, Western Australia, with your gluten free celebrations! You'll see a new page at the top of this site which has information about the Gluten Free Scallywag Bakery; what's available - gluten free cakes, cookies and slices are on the menu, plus important information about my kitchen and where these gluten free goodies are available!!
So, if you have a friend that's gluten free and you need some gluten free cupcakes or cookies for them or you are gluten free and simply aren't in the mood to bake that next morning tea for work then, please, check out The Gluten Free Scallywag Bakery and contact me about an order of scrumptious gluten free cakes, brownies or cookies!
After all this excitement (and more than a few happy dances and a bottle of bubbly) I haven't had a chance to complete my usual recipe post for you, so I'll leave you with one of my favourite gluten free salads from this time last year - Gluten & Lactose Free Creamy Mustard Chicken Salad.


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NDIM Tughlakabad, New Delhi Institute of Management
NDIM Plot No. B 60, C 50 , Behind Batra Hospital, Tughlakabad Institutional Area, New Delhi, DL 110062 | Helpline NDIM Delhi 011-26344275 , 9811004275 | www.ndimdelhi.org NDIM Tughlakabad has been consistently ranked among the top MBA schools of India by the AIMA, IMRB, Business World, Business Standard, Business India, DNA Group of Newspapers and the KPMG. NDIM Tughlakabad and… Read More »


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Oh whot, I didn't think I was catching any attention here, so I stopped updating this thread lmaoBut yeah! I've been posting new strips weekly~In today's new strip of PP&P, Joshua and Darius finally went into Payon Dungeon!https://tapastic.com/episode/514399
This is where I found it when only the first 3 strips were up. Still coming back every week.
Just read through and shared it with a few friends; it's actually a lot different than I had imagined it would be, but I think that's a good thing. I think the earlier strips were definitely my favorite and they have a slightly different feel than the later ones, which seem to foreshadow potential plot development, as opposed to simply stand-alone pieces. Are you aiming to introduce more characters and flesh out a story to go along with it, or do you intend to continue with strips that primarily stand on their own? It'll be interesting to see where you take it. Will check back for more, later.~☆
I visit this every week to see updates. I bet some lurkers do too. Keep it up
That moose's face will now give me nightmares for life. -Lucifer
rofl...you, sir, are now a true hero to me. never seen any RO-crelated comic that amused me this much.
Because of your webcomic, I started playing RO again...... I don't know if I'll thank you or what --------------GMs are stalkers, they know what, where and how you do things... Lol


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Preliminary geology and petrography of Swat Kohistan
No 1 December
The geology of the Gandghar Range Distt Hazara N W F
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abundant acid amphibolites associated Bajaur bands beds biotite brines Bull calcite carbonates chloride complexes chlorite coarse-grained colour concentration correlated crystals dark deposits Deshai developed Dewangar diorites dolerite dolomite dykes east eastern epidote exposed extend feet thick feldspar fluid inclusions folded foliation fractures Gabral Gandghar Range garnet Geol geology glauconite gneisses gneissose grades grains granites graphite grey Hazara hornblende hornblendites hydrothermal solutions hypersthene igneous ilmenite Indus intrusions Kalam Group Khan Khussak Formation Kohistan layers limestone locally magma magnetite marble Matiltan Matsushita metals metamorphism miles mineralizing solutions Misri Banda Quartzite norites Nowshera occur outcrop Pakistan pegmatite pegmatite veins peridotite Peshawar phenocrysts phyllites plagioclase plutonic porphyritic pyrite pyroxene pyroxenites quartz quartzite region samples sandstone schists sediments sericite shale sheared Sirikot Sirikot Slates solubility sphalerite sphene sulphide sulphur Surv Swat Kohistan Tahirkheli temperature Tertiary thin transport Univ Upper Swat Ushu usually Utror valley volcanic rocks waters well-developed zone


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According to the Behavior Analytics Device Market survey report, the market is expected to witness a relatively higher growth rate during the forecast period 2018-2023.
Houston, TX -- (SBWIRE) -- 01/23/2018 -- This research report on Behavior Analytics Device Market provides detailed analysis on the main growth prospects and challenges in the market. This research study is expected to guide the new and existing key players in the market in making current business decisions in order to sustain in the rigid competition of this Global Market. The report sheds light on the main product portfolios, geographical segments, key applications, and the competitive landscape of the Global Market that have been mentioned in the study.
Top Key Players:
Splunk Inc. (U.S.), Securonix (U.S.), Varonis Systems, Inc. (U.S.), Bay Dynamics (U.S.), Exabeam, Inc. (U.S.), Gurucul (U.S.), Niara Inc. (U.S.), Sqrrl Data, Inc. (U.S.), Rapid7 (U.S.), Dtex Systems (U.S.)
Get Sample Copy of this Report now @
According to the research report, The Global Behavior Analytics Device Industry is undergoing a lot of advancements since past few years. The application industry and its usage have also increased with time. This has become a major factor stimulating the growth of Global Behavior Analytics Device Market. The industry has been growing significantly over time, providing new advancements.
A major chunk of the report talks about the technologies that are and will influence the growth of the Behavior Analytics Device Market. Forecasts for these technology sectors are presented in the report. Integration is the key to advancement in technology in the Global Behavior Analytics Device Market. Companies that offers the latest integrated technologies at an affordable cost are expected to thrive in the Behavior Analytics Device Market. The dominating technologies in the Behavior Analytics Device Market along with the upcoming technologies that are expected to revolutionize the market are explained in the report.
This study provides an evaluation of aspects that are expected to impact growth of market in an undesired or constructive method. This Market has been consistently examined with respect to the corresponding market segments. Each year within the mentioned forecast period is concisely considered in terms of produce and worth in the regional as well as the global markets respectively.
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The regions North America, Europe, Asia Pacific, Middle East & Africa and Latin America have been studied in depth to gain better market penetration and assure exact analysis. Top manufacturers have been given prime importance to make sure their strategies are understood and their position in this particular Behavior Analytics Device Market can be elucidated.
To conclude, the report has delivered a basic outline of all these geographies. The report has been compiled using primary and secondary research methodologies. The information has been collected from reliable sources such as interviews with market leaders, journals, publications, conferences, and white papers. The report analyzes the historical data along with the current developments in the market to map a fair trajectory of the Global Behavior Analytics Device Market for the coming few years.
Table of Content:
Global Behavior Analytics Device Market Research Report 2018-2023
Chapter 1 Behavior Analytics Device Market Overview
Chapter 2 Global Economic Impact
Chapter 3 Competition by Manufacturer
Chapter 4 Production, Revenue (Value) by Region (2018-2023)
Chapter 5 Supply (Production), Consumption, Export, Import by Regions (2018-2023)
Chapter 6 Production, Revenue (Value), Price Trend by Type
Chapter 7 Analysis by Application
Chapter 8 Manufacturing Cost Analysis
Chapter 9 Industrial Chain, Sourcing Strategy and Downstream Buyers
Chapter 10 Marketing Strategy Analysis, Distributors/Traders
Chapter 11 Market Effect Factors Analysis
Chapter 12 Market Forecast (2018-2023)
Chapter 13 Conclusion


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Can Nate Silver do no wrong? Between elections and baseball statistics, Silver has become America's secular god of predictions. And now he has a best-seller, "The Signal and the Noise," in which he discusses the challenges and science of prediction in a wide range of domains, covering politics, sports, earthquakes, epidemics, economics, and climate change. How does a predictor go about making accurate predictions? Why are certain types of predictions, like when earthquakes will hit, so difficult? For any lay reader wanting to know more about the statistics and the art of prediction, the book should be essential reading. Just about the only thing seriously wrong with the book lies in its core technical claim.
Broadly speaking, prediction consists of three parts: dynamic modelling, data analysis, and human judgments. One of the most valuable parts of the book is the way Silver describes the interactions between these different elements of predictions, including cases in which mathematical modelling can't fully replace human judgment. Weather predictions, for example, that combine judgment with computation are between ten and twenty-five per cent more accurate than those that rely on computer programs alone. In Major League Baseball, most teams ultimately rely on a combination of hard-nosed stats and old-school human scouts. Silver also does a great job of rejecting the notorious (but ridiculous) prediction made by Chris Anderson, in Wired, in 2008, that Big Data would make the development of scientific theories and models "obsolete"; as Silver notes, raw data, no matter how extensive, are useless without a model: "Numbers have no way of speaking for themselves…. Data-driven predictions can succeed—and they can fail. It is when we deny our role in the process that the odds of failure rise."
Silver's one misstep comes in his advocacy of an approach known as Bayesian inference. According to Silver's excited introduction,
Bayes' theorem is nominally a mathematical formula. But it is really much more than that. It implies that we must think differently about our ideas.
Lost until Chapter 8 is the fact that the approach Silver lobbies for is hardly an innovation; instead (as he ultimately acknowledges), it is built around a two-hundred-fifty-year-old theorem that is usually taught in the first weeks of college probability courses. More than that, as valuable as the approach is, most statisticians see it is as only a partial solution to a very large problem.
A Bayesian approach is particularly useful when predicting outcome probabilities in cases where one has strong prior knowledge of a situation. Suppose, for instance (borrowing an old example that Silver revives), that a woman in her forties goes for a mammogram and receives bad news: a "positive" mammogram. However, since not every positive result is real, what is the probability that she actually has breast cancer? To calculate this, we need to know four numbers. The fraction of women in their forties who have breast cancer is 0.014, which is about one in seventy. The fraction who do not have breast cancer is therefore 1 - 0.014 = 0.986. These fractions are known as the prior probabilities. The probability that a woman who has breast cancer will get a positive result on a mammogram is 0.75. The probability that a woman who does not have breast cancer will get a false positive on a mammogram is 0.1. These are known as the conditional probabilities. Applying Bayes's theorem, we can conclude that, among women who get a positive result, the fraction who actually have breast cancer is (0.014 x 0.75) / ((0.014 x 0.75) + (0.986 x 0.1)) = 0.1, approximately. That is, once we have seen the test result, the chance is about ninety per cent that it is a false positive. In this instance, Bayes's theorem is the perfect tool for the job.
This technique can be extended to all kinds of other applications. In one of the best chapters in the book, Silver gives a step-by-step description of the use of probabilistic reasoning in placing bets while playing a hand of Texas Hold 'em, taking into account the probabilities on the cards that have been dealt and that will be dealt; the information about opponents' hands that you can glean from the bets they have placed; and your general judgment of what kind of players they are (aggressive, cautious, stupid, etc.).
But the Bayesian approach is much less helpful when there is no consensus about what the prior probabilities should be. For example, in a notorious series of experiments, Stanley Milgram showed that many people would torture a victim if they were told that it was for the good of science. Before these experiments were carried out, should these results have been assigned a low prior (because no one would suppose that they themselves would do this) or a high prior (because we know that people accept authority)? In actual practice, the method of evaluation most scientists use most of the time is a variant of a technique proposed by the statistician Ronald Fisher in the early 1900s. Roughly speaking, in this approach, a hypothesis is considered validated by data only if the data pass a test that would be failed ninety-five or ninety-nine per cent of the time if the data were generated randomly. The advantage of Fisher's approach (which is by no means perfect) is that to some degree it sidesteps the problem of estimating priors where no sufficient advance information exists. In the vast majority of scientific papers, Fisher's statistics (and more sophisticated statistics in that tradition) are used.
Unfortunately, Silver's discussion of alternatives to the Bayesian approach is dismissive, incomplete, and misleading. In some cases, Silver tends to attribute successful reasoning to the use of Bayesian methods without any evidence that those particular analyses were actually performed in Bayesian fashion. For instance, he writes about Bob Voulgaris, a basketball gambler,
Bob's money is on Bayes too. He does not literally apply Bayes' theorem every time he makes a prediction. But his practice of testing statistical data in the context of hypotheses and beliefs derived from his basketball knowledge is very Bayesian, as is his comfort with accepting probabilistic answers to his questions.
But, judging from the description in the previous thirty pages, Voulgaris follows instinct, not fancy Bayesian math. Here, Silver seems to be using "Bayesian" not to mean the use of Bayes's theorem but, rather, the general strategy of combining many different kinds of information.
To take another example, Silver discusses at length an important and troubling paper by John Ioannidis, "Why Most Published Research Findings Are False," and leaves the reader with the impression that the problems that Ioannidis raises can be solved if statisticians use Bayesian approach rather than following Fisher. Silver writes:
[Fisher's classical] methods discourage the researcher from considering the underlying context or plausibility of his hypothesis, something that the Bayesian method demands in the form of a prior probability. Thus, you will see apparently serious papers published on how toads can predict earthquakes… which apply frequentist tests to produce "statistically significant" but manifestly ridiculous findings.
But NASA's 2011 study of toads was actually important and useful, not some "manifestly ridiculous" finding plucked from thin air. It was a thoughtful analysis of groundwater chemistry that began with a combination of naturalistic observation (a group of toads had abandoned a lake in Italy near the epicenter of an earthquake that happened a few days later) and theory (about ionospheric disturbance and water composition).
The real reason that too many published studies are false is not because lots of people are testing ridiculous things, which rarely happens in the top scientific journals; it's because in any given year, drug companies and medical schools perform thousands of experiments. In any study, there is some small chance of a false positive; if you do a lot of experiments, you will eventually get a lot of false positive results (even putting aside self-deception, biases toward reporting positive results, and outright fraud)—as Silver himself actually explains two pages earlier. Switching to a Bayesian method of evaluating statistics will not fix the underlying problems; cleaning up science requires changes to the way in which scientific research is done and evaluated, not just a new formula.
It is perfectly reasonable for Silver to prefer the Bayesian approach—the field has remained split for nearly a century, with each side having its own arguments, innovations, and work-arounds—but the case for preferring Bayes to Fisher is far weaker than Silver lets on, and there is no reason whatsoever to think that a Bayesian approach is a "think differently" revolution. "The Signal and the Noise" is a terrific book, with much to admire. But it will take a lot more than Bayes's very useful theorem to solve the many challenges in the world of applied statistics.
Gary Marcus and Ernest Davis are professors at New York University. Marcus has also written for newyorker.com about the facts and fictions of neuroscience, moral machines, the future of Web search and what needs to be done to clean up science.
Photograph by Beth Rooney/The New York Times/Redux.


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Coupling PVC Fitting, Female Ends (4325)
Coupling PVC Fitting, Female Ends (4325)
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Douglas Rothman PhD
Professor of Radiology and Biomedical Imaging and of Biomedical Engineering; Director Yale MR Research Center
Research & Publications
Dr. Rothman is director of the Magnetic Resonance Research Center (MRRC) at the Yale School of Medicine. The MRRC presently supports the NIH- funded work of more than 70 Principal Investigators, as well as 13 program project grants and center grants. Dr. Rothman has an international reputation as a leader in the development of novel MR methods for the study of brain, liver, and muscle metabolism and function. Among the many MR 'firsts' of his team of bioimaging scientists have been the development of MR methods for imaging glutamate and GABA neurotransmission, brain energy metabolism, and liver and muscle glycogen and glucose metabolism and metabolic control. He is presently supported by two R01 grants, and has served as the primary mentor of six postdoctoral fellows and two students. His postdoctoral fellows have all gone on to faculty positions at major research institutions in the US and abroad. He is a named mentor on five K awards at different levels and is an informal mentor to many other junior and mid-level faculty members in the use of MR technology in their research.
Education & Training
- PhDYale University (1987)


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The Jelly Case is a vibrant, flexible, light-weight polypropylene case for your iPhone SE. The smooth texture gives you a sure and lasting grip on your smartphone and minimizes sliding on flat surfaces. The Jelly Case provides a colorful second skin and is a must have accessory.
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text: To our amazing customers & fans, T H A N K Y O U ! We have made the incredibly tough call to throw in the towel for all custom invitations. Our intentions are to expand on our letterpress greeting card collection, and eventually branch out into more gifts & products. We are forever grateful for all of your kind words and support. That being said, our wedding invitations will be available for a limited time through Soiree San Francisco, so please don't hesitate to contact them for all your dreamy wedding desires. Wishing you a very H A P P Y N E W Y E A R !


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This device is designed to have an ultra-low quiescent current and be stable with a 4.7-uF capacitor. This combination provides high performance at a reasonable cost.
Because the PMOS device behaves as a low-value resistor, the dropout voltage is very low (typically 85 mV at an output current of 150 mA for the TPS76550) and is directly proportional to the output current. Additionally, since the PMOS pass element is a voltage-driven device, the quiescent current is very low and independent of output loading (typically 35 uA over the full range of output current, 0 mA to 150 mA). These two key specifications yield a significant improvement in operating life for battery-powered systems. This LDO family also features a sleep mode; applying a TTL high signal to EN\ (enable) shuts down the regulator, reducing the quiescent current to less than 1 uA (typ).
Power good (PG) is an active high output, which can be used to implement a power-on reset or a low-battery indicator.
The TPS765xx is offered in 1.5-V, 1.8-V, 2.5-V, 2.7-V, 2.8-V, 3.0-V, 3.3-V and 5.0-V fixed-voltage versions and in an adjustable version (programmable over the range of 1.25 V to 5.5 V). Output voltage tolerance is specified as a maximum of 3% over line, load, and temperature ranges. The TPS765xx family is available in 8 pin SOIC package.
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I'll give you one guess as to who I am? Come on!! I know, you know! ...give up? Yeah I don't really know either. I just went to work in my most fall appropriate 50s dress while wearing a crinoline to up the ante as far as 50s era fashion goes. I was also sporting a cute little apron, but I accidentally took it off before the photos. Doh!! So I guess you could say I was dressed up Laura Petrie from the Dick Van Dyke show. Either way I liked my outfit.
So I hope your Halloween weekend was a monster mash of fantasticness!! If you checked out my Facebook page then you saw all the happenings going on in Richmond for a mini blogger meetup. It was a blast getting to know some Virginian bloggers and eating tons of fondue. Our hostess, Marleigh, was fabulous scary looking housewife.
I hope you had a Happy Halloween!!! I'll be buying my sh*t ton of discount candy from the drugstore tomorrow. It's fun that way:)
Dress, Gloves & Hat, Vintage
Shoes, Cato


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The Natural Opening Act of Spring
April 01, 2014
Spring marks the seasonal migration of the Canadian geese all across North America and Canada. The familiar and melodic honking from up in the sky reminds us that winter is drawing to a close, and it is time to shed the wool sweater to prepare for spring. Personally, this year, we are ready!


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via Lion's Den Trail
via Lion's Den Trail
Tales of humour, whimsy and courgettes
Your Health and Wealth Upgrade
Life in the Everyday Santiago de Chile
Living, Laughing, and Learning with Depression
Seeker of the way, fair of heart and mind, sojourning with a will, the living truth to find.
Newfoundland Bird & Nature Tours
Inspiring Big Dreams and Big Goals through Exploration and Physical Activity
Wonderings (and wanderings) from a windy isle and what I knit along the way.
Finding New Energy To Experience Life More Fully
Celebrating gardens, nature, photography and a creative life
Life, Books and Wanderings
inspiring personal growth through poetry and writing
"Our inner hankering is for satisfaction, happiness, sweetness, love, beauty and mercy." Swami B.R.Sridhar maharaja.


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text:
Economic Inequality: The Wall Street Journal is Just Wrong
For anyone with even a passing familiarity with issues associated with economic inequality, The Wall Street Journal front page story last week was shocking. Its use of bad data was a misuse of this important forum. In effect, the article says that economic inequality was never really a problem, and even if it is we no longer have to worry about it. These conclusions are just plain wrong.
The Journal article effectively leads the reader to two conclusions: First, any issues that may exist around economic inequality are disappearing, because of the likely decline in the outsize incomes of the top 1% of Americans, those with a minimum income of $400,000. Second, the problem was never really that bad in the first place. Using Census Bureau data, which has been widely discredited for this type of analysis, the article asserts that growth at the top of our society was only slightly higher than for the nation as a whole, saying
The gains at the top didn't necessarily come at the expense of others, because the economy expanded greatly after 1980, letting incomes grow across the spectrum. But those at the top end rose more rapidly. In 1980, for instance, the income of the top 5% of households was 2.86 times median incomes; by 2007, it was 3.52 times the median. In other words, the gap widened by 23%, Census data show.
Unfortunately, few conclusions could be further off the mark.
In some eras, when America did well everyone did well. However, this has been far from true for the past thirty years. Moreover, as a result of the Great Recession we may have to worry more about economic inequality rather than less.
First, let's start with what we know about economic inequality. Scholars have, with few exceptions, reached a consensus that Census Data is not appropriate for measuring high incomes. To ensure the privacy of individuals, the census assumes a maximum individual income of $999,000 or less. So, it does not capture the true income of oil traders or anyone else earning $100 million, $50 million or five million per year. Second, the Census data does not include capital gains, a central source of the wealth created in private equity and hedge funds. Finally, the Census is based on samples, and the small proportion of wealthy Americans, as compared to the total proportion, further limits the accuracy of its projections.
In response to these limitations, two economists, Professor Emanuel Saez at Berkeley and Professor Thomas Pickety at the Paris School of Economic developed a highly regarded technique for measuring the distribution of income, including capital gains, by using IRS data. So, the Saez-Pickety data goes back to 1913, when the modern income tax was introduced. Saez updates the data each year, and the analysis of the most recent data, for 2007, was released in early August of this year.
The validity of Census Data for measuring economic inequality was the subject of intense discussion several years ago, when Alan Reynolds. of the Cato Institute, wrote an article in The Wall Street Journal, titled The Top 1%… of What? in December, 2006 similarly asserting that economic inequality had been overstated. In response, Saez posted a detailed open letter on his Web site, explaining why Census Data was entirely inadequate for measuring income inequality and refuting Reynold's claims. In the open from Saez and Pickety, they state:
"The … Census Bureau estimates are based on survey data which are not suitable to study high incomes… In contrast, tax return data provide a very accurate picture… Our key contribution was precisely to use those tax data to construct better inequality estimates."
"In sum, our work has shown the top 1% income share has increased dramatically in recent decades… [C]onservatives like Alan Reynolds … prefer to dismiss the facts about growing income inequality rather than face the debate on income tax progressivity at a time of growing economic disparity."
Before joining the Obama Administration, an independent study by Larry Summers based on Congressional Budget Office data, similarly concluded that economic inequality had increased massively in past decades. In a June 2007 article in the Financial Times Summers wrote:
Indeed, in a recent paper on tax policy prepared for the Hamilton project, my collaborators and I concluded from Congressional Budget Office data that, since 1979, changes in income distribution had raised the pre-tax incomes of the top 1 per cent of the population by $664bn or $600,000 per family – an increase of 43 per cent.By definition what one group gains from changes in the distribution of income another group must lose. The lower 80 per cent of families are $664bn poorer than they would be with a static income distribution, which works out to $7,000 less in income per family or a 14 per cent loss.
To put this in some perspective, the total gain in median family incomes adjusted for inflation between 1979 and 2004 was only 14 per cent. If middle income families had shared fully in the economy's income growth over the past generation their incomes would have risen twice as rapidly!
With few exceptions, scholars have concluded the Saez-Pickety data is correct. The basic conclusion of this data, that the nation suffers from extreme and growing income inequality is essentially irrefutable. Moreover, when the latest data was released a few weeks ago, Paul Krugman called the findings of growing income inequality "truly amazing" in a blog post titled Even More Guilded.
So, the Journal based it's claims on data that is, with very few exceptions, considered essentially worthless for measuring income inequality.
Now, where do we really stand: The data released in August showed that, by some measures, the nation was at its highest level of income inequality in its history.
In 2007, the percent of total income received by the top 10% of families was 49.74%, or effectively one-half of the nation's total. This compares to 1980, when the top 10% received 34.63%, or about one-third of all income.
By looking at Census data, the Journal article finds that "the gap" in median income between the top 5% of households and all U.S. households "widened by 23%" since 1980. Such a finding may not be good, but it does not seem so extreme. This supports the unconscionable conclusion that "The gains at the top didn't necessarily come at the expense of others, because the economy expanded greatly after 1980, letting incomes grow across the spectrum." Of course, as already noted, the Census Data is completely unreliable for measuring these types of changes.
The Pickety-Saez data paints a very different picture. It shows that the average income in 2007 dollars (which adjusts for inflation) for the top 5% of households grew from $134,800 in 1980 to $220,100 in 2007; an increase of 63%. In contrast, over this 27 year period, the average real household income of the bottom 90% of families increased from $29,800 to $32,400; less than 9%.
So, real income among the top 5% grew at seven times the rate of income of the bottom 90% (63% as compared to less than 9%), an extraordinary difference of 600%. Second, these percentage increases reflect much higher absolute numbers. The average income growth of the top 5% in a single year between 1980 and 2007 was almost $3,200, which is more than the $2,600 average income growth of the bottom 90% for the entire 27 years. As others such as Joseph Stiglitz have noted, the vast majority of Americans have been waiting three decades for a decent raise.
It is also impossible to understand how The Journal could seriously assert that the income gains at the top occurred because of a widely shared growing pie, as opposed to one group taking a far larger piece of the growth.
Once again this is at odds with the Saez-Pickety data, whose conclusions are far more consistent with the real life experience of today's struggling middle income households. The data released by Saez in August shows that between 1993 and 2007, the top 1% of Americans received 50% of the entire income gains in the nation. In the shorter period between 2002 and 2007, the top 1% received an even more concentrated 65% of the entire income gains in the nation. In fact, on September 9th, the day before the Wall Street Journal article ran, the Council on Budget Priorities and Policies, released a detailed analysis of this data, titled, Top 1 Percent of Americans Reaped Two-Thirds of Income Gains in Last Economic Expansion. This analysis, or its implications, was nowhere to be found in the Journal story.
In addition, I am forced to wonder about what interviews the reporters conducted before releasing the story. The central argument in the article, that the percentage of total income received by the top 1% will decline, gains enormous legitimacy by stating near the start of the piece that "Mr. Saez and other economists expect income going to the top 1% of taxpayers…will drop..by 2010." I cannot speak for Professor Saez, and I don't know whether he was interviewed for the Journal article, but any reading of his work suggests that the article provides a skewed representation of his views.
In a short paper accompanying the updated August data, Professor Saez concludes that "the most likely outcome is that income concentration will fall in 2008 and 2009." But, he follows this conclusion by stating that in the absence of significant policy actions such declines will be temporary:
"Based on the US historical record, falls in income concentration due to recessions are temporary unless drastic policy changes, such as financial regulation or significantly more progressive taxation, are implemented and prevent income concentration from bouncing back. Such policy changes took place after the Great Depression during the New Deal and permanently reduced income concentration till the 1970s. In contrast, recent downturns, such as the 2001 recession, lead to only very temporary drops in income concentration." (references to charts omitted).
My intense study of past history, which will soon be released in It Could Happen Here is in line with Professor Saez's conclusion. Once income concentration becomes a reinforcing cycle of the kind we are witnessing, it is never stopped by pure market forces. Only extensive government intervention, of the kind that will inevitably create high controversy, reverses this trend. Indeed, the policies of the New Deal, which led to the rapid decline of inequality, reflected bitter and hard fights. Time magazine reported in April 1936, that:
Certainly no President in recent times has so bitterly aroused the enmity of a whole class as Franklin Roosevelt has aroused the economically substantial element of the U. S. Regardless of party and regardless of region, today, with few exceptions, members of the so-called Upper Class frankly hate Franklin Roosevelt.
It's possible that the growth in income concentration may take a brief respite, but without substantial intervention the long-term trend toward ever greater concentration will march forward.
When the historians Will and Ariel Durant completed their massive multi-volume study of history, encompassing the broad sweep of time from ancient Greece to the modern United States, they subsequently wrote a short book of 102 pages titled The Lessons of History, in which they sought to identify the broad trends that are common to civilizations. The chapter economics and history is all of six pages, and the bulk of it addresses the inevitable concentration of income that occurs in societies over time. The Durant's bluntly conclude that such concentration ultimately leads to redistribution of some type, by "violent or peaceable" means.
We conclude that the concentration of wealth is natural and inevitable and is periodically alleviated by violent or peacable partial redistribution. In this view, all economic history is the slow heartbeat of the social organism, a vast systolic and diastole of concentrating wealth and compulsive recirculation.
The Journal article give us the false impression that, counter to all historical evidence, we no longer need to worry about economic inequality. It will take care of itself.
Finally, it is not even clear that the central point of the article is correct. Yes, the rich are suffering relative to the past. However, the middle class and underclass are suffering as well. Jobs continue to disappear and housing could still decline substantially. With each job loss or foreclosure, another family joins the ranks of the former middle class. Simon Johnston, in a New York Times blog post, The Two-Track Economy: Inequality Emerging From Today's Recession, among others, has pointed out that the Great Recession may be creating an even less economically equal society:
The overall numbers on outcomes by groups can get complicated (here's a partial guide), but the simple version is: The top 10 percent of people are going to do fine, those in the middle of the income distribution have been hard hit by overborrowing, and poorer people will continue to struggle with unstable jobs and low wages.
Can the richest people spend enough to power a recovery in overall G.D.P.? Perhaps, but is that really the kind of economy you want to live in?
The United States has, over the past two decades, started to take on characteristics more traditionally associated with Latin America: extreme income inequality, rising poverty levels and worsening health conditions for many. The elite live well and seem not to mind repeated cycles of economic-financial crisis. In fact, if you want to be cynical, you might start to think that the most powerful of the well-to-do actually don't lose much from a banking sector run amok — providing the government can afford to provide repeated bailouts (paid for presumably through various impositions on people outside the uppermost elite strata).
All of this suggests that we have a lot to worry about. On its front page, The Wall Street Journal may say that it never happened, and even if it did it is fixing itself. Everything we know suggest that this reading of the past is wrong, and such a future –without determined government action — is unlikely. The larger worry is that we will emerge from the Great Recession as a society sharply divided between a small privileged upper class, and an underclass that lacks basic economic security. What happens then?
Francois permalink
The scarcity of comments on this blog is proof positive that an immense majority of Americans are still in deep denial that income inequality is a fundamental component of their actual economic misery.
Excellent refutation of the WSJ BTW. I feel compel to comment on one point you alluded to:
"It is also impossible to understand how the WSJ…"
On the contrary, it is very possible to explain how…and why. They did it because their conclusions were pre-ordained. If one look back at the WSJ treatment of the topic of income inequality, it is not possible to find an inequality they didn't like.
So, all they need to do is ignore any data that won't fit this belief. They'll acknowledge it the day they believe it.
Greg permalink
Rising inequality is a function of a two-tiered education system. Becker and Murphy show that increasing educational attainment in the population is responsible for the rapid rise in incomes among collge/professionally educated population.
You have two education systems in America – One in the suburbs/private schools. The other a terrible, broken public school system in the inner cities that traps students and offers them no choice but to attend the worst.
If you're looking for drivers of this inequality – start there. Otherwise, I see no way to stop increasing inequality unless you want to stunt the education of those who are, at least, receiving it now.
Stelios Theoharidis permalink
1. I am in agreement the general direction of the article. I'm actually curious whether you are familiar with any scholarship on a possible relationship between the concentration of wealth, social, and political power and speculative bubbles like the last five (Savings & Loan, Telecom, Internet, Crude Oil, Housing) and the sixth in 1929. Excess capital is just looking for somewhere to go, but there is an imbalance between this investment and the ability of consumer markets to absorb the excess capacity created. Extending credit to consumers absorbed this excess capacity for quite a bit of time, but it eventually collapsed as we see now. Concentrated wealth and therefore power also lead to the dismantling of the financial regulatory framework and in many cases regulatory capture, allowing large companies to speculate as they pleased to the detriment of the public at large.
2. So the haphazard collection of safety nets constructed to appease certain groups within American society (social security, medicare, medicaid, minimum wage) were constructed to cushion against the possibility of a revolution which was a real concern as communism was emerging and labor activism was at its peak. Some groups now cling onto many of these concessions and have interest in maintaining them. Medicare recipients for example often oppose reform fearful that universal healthcare will cause considerable strain their access to service. A boiling point may come but it may pit certain 'former middle class' groups against each other.
Greg. That terrible education system is also abundantly present in the rural areas of the USA.
Goldilocksisableachblond permalink
The WSJ says:
"The gains at the top didn't necessarily come at the expense of others, because the economy expanded greatly after 1980, letting incomes grow across the spectrum."
I encourage readers to prove to themselves the fallacy in this statement , by doing a few simple compound interest calculations using different hypothetical scenarios. Here's one example :
Assume long-term real , per-capita GDP (i.e.income) growth is 2.4% annually ( pretty close , if not too high , for advanced economies like the U.S.) Now assume that the top 1% garners 10% of the income at TimeZero ( about what their share was in 1980 or so). Then , assume that the top 1% achieves real income growth of 6% annually , on average , over the long haul ( 6% ain't that much of an increase , right ? They're the best and the brightest , after all ! )
What happens ? Around 68-69 years after TimeZero , they are getting 100% of income. Nothing , nada , zilch , is left for the other 99%.
Crunch the numbers and see for yourselves. Then show your daffy rightwing supply-side friends. It might take some time , and a few beers , before it penetrates their thick skulls , but keep at it. It's important.
Of course , you could never reach the point where the top 1% received 100% of the income , because that would be slavery , right ? Something would happen to change the course of events in the interim. In 1933 it was FDR. Today , or tomorrow , it could be Obama , but that won't happen unless people become educated about the current situation and how we got here. This blog , and I'm guessing , Mr. Judson's book , is as good a place as any to get started.
NEIL PASSAGE permalink
Great article on income inequality and Wall Street Journal reporting.
Alex permalink
Being concerned about income inequality in the abstract makes sense, given John Rawls and distributive justice. However, in works quite differently in practice. The are several reasons why income inequality has increased in the past few decades:
1) Immigration. The number of immigrants has increased multiple fold, from under 3-4% in the 1970s to over 10% of the population today. Most of our immigrants are either very poor and don't have high school degrees, or they are from families that would be considered upper middle class in their countries, and have college and advanced degrees. The poor immigrants compete at the bottom for jobs, reducing wages there. Those at the higher end make it easier for higher end business sectors to operate well.
2) Education. Our education system is horrible, the worst in the OECD by far. When it comes to tetriary education, the only reason it works is nearly all the students at the top schools are from the upper middle classes or abroad. Lots of people are for allowing poor and middle class students into our top universities. Do that, and our colleges will look like our high schools, unacceptable and incompetent.
Because education is so poor here, those who are somewhat educated (have a college degree, even though the quality of over 90% of US colleges and universities is seriously in queation) make way more money than they would in other OECD countries, and the best educated (top colleges for undergraduate, advanced degrees, etc.) are being very well compensated for work that can't be done abroad as well, and for which only a few people here can do.
3) Effeciency. Yeah, I'm sorry, but when the economy is based on rational things, like pay based on performance, weakening unions so they can't distort economic efficiency (although we've failed to stop them in public education, and we know the state of that), as well as having companies that seek to be competitive, many people will be paid less than they would otherwise if the economy was much less efficient, and the state put in more regulations. Check out other countries. Japan's service sector is very inefficient, and hey, they've got life time employment and way more employees than necessary. Could there be a connection? Could there also be a connection that Japanese and German exporters are successful because workers in those industries have not been getting wage increases for nearly a decade, because the government didn't force them to? Just maybe.
4) Societal Incentives. If you see that income inequality is pretty large, then you have a clear incentive to work your ass off to get ahead in education, employment, performance, etc, since if you don't, you will suffer far more than you would otherwise. Its the stick, not the carrot at work. And if you look at the US, people here do work harder, are more competitive, and more entreprenuerial than in other OECD countries. So, it seems to have the right effect on society.
These all seem like positive things to me, but who knows. I could just be some crazy right winger because I think that 1+1=2, the sun rises in the east, the earth does exert the force of gravity, and other absurd and insane things.
AlanDownunder permalink
What Stelios said in point 1.
Inequality means more debt and a larger financial sector – more and more excess wealth employing more and more intermediaries to find more and more borrowers who are less and less creditworthy.
Our recent inequality spike presaged the GFC just like the gilded age presaged the GD.
Jeff J permalink
Any comments about this, Mr. Judson?
Mogens permalink
Mistrust and inequality is not very productive in any society.
The way we measure economic performance is far too primitive to give any usefull information about the quality of life.
Consider the following example. In the USA the amount of lawyers pr 1000 inhabitants are far greather than in Denmark, because we generally trust each other. Does those extra misstrust costs allthough they boost the US GNP actually makes anyone (exept the lawyers) any richer or more happy? I doubt.
Another example. The health system in the USA costs 16% of GNP, and the danish costs about the half. Their performance are almost similar, and the coverage in Denmark is 100%.
Does that mean, that the addidional costs, increasing the GNP of the USA with about 8% actually makes anyone having a better life?
We have to find other ways to measure economic performance.
Ffred permalink
My impression of some opinion columns I have read, by members of the Ayn Rand Institute, is that so-called Objectivists can blind themselves to inconvenient portions of John Galt's teachings just as so-called Christians can blind themselves to inconvenient portions of Jesus' teachings.
This comment was originally posted on Curious Capitalist – TIME.com
bryanfromhouston permalink
Hu Jintao was interviewed by Fareed Zakaria on his show.
He noted that all too many people don't appreciate the full works of Adam Smith.
The Wealth of Nations gets all the press while The Theory of Moral Sentiments, arguably the more prescient writing, is ignored.
In his interview, he makes a compelling argument that Americans are too much into the former without understanding the need for balance with the latter. Capitalism on its merit without more cannot be compassionate. Compassion is only manifest from the human spirit and not the invisible hand.
This comment was originally posted on Curious Capitalist – TIME.com
donthelibertariandemocrat permalink
I agree with Judson, so I'll get his book. My solution is a Guaranteed Income. I suppose that I'm different in one respect: I would like a robust Social Safety Net for the poor, and policies that will grow the economy such that fewer and fewer people need the social safety net. In order for that to work, we need a middle class that feels middle class, and not one mishap from penury. That's the only way to have a smaller govt. Namely, make our citizens wealthier. All our citizens.
This comment was originally posted on Curious Capitalist – TIME.com
I don't know if this a plug for a former colleague-boss-friend, or a link borne out of authentic interest. In the latter case, my consideration for Fox is diminished. The claims in the Amazon product description are rather tall. For example, the statement "The last time inequality rivaled current levels was in 1928" is based on a single paper, by Picketty [not Pickety, as Judson writes in his blog] and Saez, based on admittedly censored data. It is not true that the precursors of collapses are "extreme economic inequality and an increasingly impoverished middle class". Most definitely this was not the case of several modern-era collapses; more importantly, it was not the case of Russia in 1991 and many european countries in 1989. Even if we believe in this statement, inequality in the US is not extreme (i.e., max or min over a set), unless you define the set to suit your needs. And, is the middle class in the US vanishing? By which measure? I have heard this claim in at least three OECD countries during the past 20 years. I'll keep an eye on the blog to decide whether to buy the book, but so far it seems an advocacy affair, not quite a research work.
To those interested in the issue of inequality, this book will provide food for thought from a variety of viewpoints: "Should Differences in Income and Wealth Matter?" (Cambridge U Press). http://www.amazon.com/Should-Differences-Income-Wealth-Matter/dp/0521005353
This comment was originally posted on Curious Capitalist – TIME.com
Ffred permalink
OK, at this late hour I couldn't resist adding my favorite quote:
John Galt, "An error of knowledge is not a moral flaw, provided you are willing to correct it… but that which you refuse to know, is an account of infamy growing in your soul."
This comment was originally posted on Curious Capitalist – TIME.com
jfwells permalink
Four Beats Three : GM's Chevy Volt has 4 wheels, a battery and nearly unlimited government funding, therefore anything with fewer wheels and a battery that wants some government funding is obviously not a car and doesn't qualify for any of the funding that GM wants all for itself. Clear?
I didn't click through, but if they are referring to the Aptera, it actually isn't a "car". By having three wheels, it is classified as a motorcycle and is exempt from many of the safety regulations that end up causing cars to be much bigger and heavier.
That doesn't mean Aptera shouldn't get some Government love, though…
This comment was originally posted on Some Assembly Required
brucejudson permalink
From Bruce Judson:
Gappy thanks for taking the time to write about my ideas. Whether we agree or not, what I think is most important is that we have a fair and open debate. One key to a sustainable democracy is lots of discussion and often messy arguments ensuring that everyone feels their voice has been heard.
A few points related to your post:
First, to my knowledge I have never met Justin Fox. I left Time Inc. in 1999, now over a decade ago. I suspect Justin was simply making a comment about my varied background, which is somewhat uncommon.
Next, the full blog post which Justin references provides an extensive analysis of the several economists who have studied economic inequality and the validity of the available data. In fact, the first two-thirds of the article is a fairly extensive discussion of how the Saez-Pickety data has been confirmed over time, and Census Data has been shown (for reasons described in the post) to be inappropriate for measuring inequality.
As the post notes, before Larry Summers joined the Obama Administration he led a separate independent study that also concluded economic inequality has increased massively over the past thirty years.
Moreover, the general conclusion, with a very few exceptions, among economists is that the findings of Saez and Pickety are correct. As you may know, Professor Saez received the 2009 John Bates Clark Medal, awarded to the "American economist under the age of forty who is judged to have made the most significant contribution to economic thought and knowledge," in part, for his work in developing a technique for measuring income inequality. So, the validity of this work has been recognized by the profession, with one of its highest awards.
Yes, we are now at the highest levels of income inequality in the history of the nation. By some measures, it's higher than 1928. I can understand why you may feel this is a "tall claim" since this truth is hard to accept.
My book, "It Could Happen Here", which will be released in the first week of October, discusses, in depth both the issue you raised relative to the middle class and the collapse of the Soviet Union.
The middle class is notoriously hard to define (as noted by the Executive Director of the Vice President's Task Force) but it's also almost irrefutable that typical American families are suffering today and in danger of becoming the "former" middle class. By one measure over 75% of middle class families lack the means to survive for even three months in the event of a job loss. In today's economy that's a scary thought.
There are also serious projections that during this Great Recession there will be 13 million foreclosures, that's one in every four mortgages. There are few things more devastating than the loss of a home. Will we still be the America we value if we foreclose on this many homeowners? It's something I hope we don't have to contemplate.
It's your right to question everyone's motives. So, you can certainly question why I wrote yesterday's article. However, as a nation, I do believe we have become way too cynical. I have spent several years studying and writing about these questions. Isn't it possible that I wrote yesterday's article and the book because I thought they related to important issues we should all be discussing?
This comment was originally posted on Curious Capitalist – TIME.com
thanks for your comment, and of course thanks to Time and J.Fox for hosting this blog. I'll add a few comments to make my statements more precise.
First off, as I said, there would have been nothing wrong if Fox had mentioned the book because it was written by an acquaintance. What concerns and interests me is the message. To set the record straight, let me also remark that I never questioned your motives (which are irrelevant) in my comment. Now, onto the subject matter.
I would summarize your argument as follows:
1. the middle class is essential to the stability of a society;
2. excessive inequality threatens the middle class;
3. in the US, inequality is extreme;
4. if we do not do something, we run the risk of experiencing a societal collapse.
I am unconvinced each one of these claims. This does not mean that I think they are false, but that to prove them true, one should muster strong evidence in their favor.
Regarding the first claim: as you mention, the "middle class" is hard to define. It definitely is wrong to define it as a quantile interval, since this ignores income changes within a cohort of individuals (I was in the last decile only 10 years ago, and now I am in the top decile), conflates different cohorts (the households earning a median income thirty years ago are not the same earning a median income this year), and ignores the effects of immigration, which were strong in the past two decades. It is especially hard to define now, since even the top earners are "working rich" and not rentiers anymore. Defining the working class in terms of absolute income or purchasing power (without considering distribution) is possible, but then we are moving further away from a shared, commonsense definition of middle class. I suspect that the economic concept of class is mostly a rethorical device. I am ready to be proven wrong, but I am not ready to use vague concepts.
You may argue that it's not the middle class that is essential to the welfare of a society, but the economic status of its members. In this case I don't believe that the actual household income statistics bear out the hypothesis of shrinking incomes per individual. We can discuss this ad nauseam, and I am sure that Jared Bernstein would have a different view from Marty Feldstein. I just want to make the point that the subject is far from settled, but changes are a) for the better; b) not dramatic. Here are a few links available links.
Janet Yellen (Governor, San Francisco Fed): Economic Inequality in the United States, http://www.frbsf.org/news/speeches/2006/1106.html
Terry Fitzgerald (Sr. Economist, Minneapolis Fed): Just what is the middle class, and other stuff, http://www.minneapolisfed.org/research/economists/staff_display_pubs_papers.cfm?id=365
Russ Roberts (Professor, George Mason University): Half Full, http://www.invisibleheart.com/Iheart/HalfFull0108.pdf
You then may argue that it's not individual welfare level that matters, but its distribution. I disagree. I don't believe that inequality is the primary cause of collapses or revolutions. Rather inequality AND revolutions are caused by other factors, such as dictatorships, absence of rule of law, physical coercion, etc.
I would not confuse cause and effect.
Finally, when I mentioned extreme inequality, you interpreted it as "extreme within US history". I instead intended "extreme across countries". Across all countries, the US does not exhibit extreme inequality, and this inequality (say, as measured by Gini index) is not paired with the overall low economic development of countries with similar inequality levels.
-Giuseppe Paleologo
P.S.: Incidentally, I believe that Picketty-Saez is vastly correct, although I would like to see their 1913-1944 results replicated by other researchers. They have fewer available data for these years, and rely on more assumptions. It is very difficult to estimate high quantiles (say, top 1% or 0.1%) from a sample, especially when the underlying income distribution is Pareto (as the authors state in their paper). These are delicate statistical issues and need to be verified. The study by L.Summers you cite doesn't cover this period.
This comment was originally posted on Curious Capitalist – TIME.com
Re: Excellent Question…
The answer, Part A, apparently, is that banks, unlike Detroit automakers, don't have powerful unions representing bank employees, which directed huge amounts of campaign cash toward electing the current White House occupant, and quid pro quo, expected a century of corporate bankruptcy law to be overlooked while the automakers were overhauled at taxpayer expense.
Part B, the big banks and investment companies and insurance companies, unlike the automakers, have hundreds of grossly overpaid, well-bonused executives and traders who contributed wheelbarrows full of campaign cash to both presidential candidates last year, knowing one of them likely would win.
This comment was originally posted on Some Assembly Required
Bill permalink
Three out of Five Doctors: Here's another poll that indicates the exact opposite.
"Two of every three practicing physicians oppose the medical overhaul plan under consideration in Washington, and hundreds of thousands would think about shutting down their practices or retiring early if it were adopted, a new IBD/TIPP Poll has found.
The poll contradicts the claims of not only the White House, but also doctors' own lobby — the powerful American Medical Association — both of which suggest the medical profession is behind the proposed overhaul.
It also calls into question whether an overhaul is even doable; 72% of the doctors polled disagree with the administration's claim that the government can cover 47 million more people with better-quality care at lower cost.
The IBD/TIPP Poll was conducted by mail the past two weeks, with 1,376 practicing physicians chosen randomly throughout the country taking part. Responses are still coming in, and doctors' positions on related topics — including the impact of an overhaul on senior care, medical school applications and drug development — will be covered later in this series.
Major findings included:
Two-thirds, or 65%, of doctors say they oppose the proposed government expansion plan. This contradicts the administration's claims that doctors are part of an "unprecedented coalition" supporting a medical overhaul."
This comment was originally posted on Some Assembly Required
Bill – Hmmm, a poll by a well known independent foundation published in the New England Journal of Medicine comes to different conclusions than a poll run by a marketing firm for a financial newspaper. Will wonders never cease.
This comment was originally posted on Some Assembly Required
tc125231 permalink
"Rather inequality AND revolutions are caused by other factors, such as dictatorships, absence of rule of law, physical coercion, etc.
Is this a religious belief, or do you actuallyb have a data set? I looked at your LinkedIn profile, and, although you appear to have fair quantitative skills, there is no experience that would allow you to make an informed personal judgement on the matter.
Consequently, I think it is fair to ask for the data set underlying that statement, particularly the level of scrutiny you feel is necessary in other matters.
This comment was originally posted on Curious Capitalist – TIME.com
It is not a religious belief, but this does not mean that I *must* have a data set (interesting inference, though). I also wonder what qualification would "allow" me (another interesting choice of words) to make an informed personal judgement on the matter. Historian? Right-hand man in a small-country revolution? Now I know that, in absence of such qualifications, I must have a data set. As a personal aside, I would LOVE to have a data set for every belief I have.
I base this belief on what I know about history, which still qualifies as empirical knowledge not religion. I don't believe inequality is the primary cause of social collapse, and I don't think a strong case for reducing inequality has been made yet, that is based on the causal connection between inequality and collapse, so Judson's book fills a gap. As I said, I am skeptical. This doesn't mean I won't read the book and change my mind.
This comment was originally posted on Curious Capitalist – TIME.com
brucejudson permalink
From Bruce Judson:
I am excited by all of the serious discussion taking palce here. I want to repeatedly note that what is most important is that we have this discussion, learn from each other, and attempt to learn from each other. It's my experience that thoughtful questions about your ideas may not change your mind, but they force you to reexamine your beliefs and to get a better understanding of other perspective.
This discussion is a true example of the virtues of respectful debate.
Gappy, first, I want to say that I really appreciate your including your real name at the end of your last post. One of my biases is that I believe we should all be openly willing to stand behind what we say. I know that online culture encourages people to maintain anonymity –but I actually think this encourages less thoughtful debate. Of course, there may be employment of other valid reasons why specific individuals are better served by using online "handles." With this belief, I am always BruceJudson in any discussions or comments.
It seems to me there are times where reasonable people can agree to disagree and we may have reached that point. I would just add three short ideas:
1.) I am not asserting, and never would, that economic inequality is the only cause of political instability or revolutions. Although rare events, revolutions can be caused by many unfortunate events. I am asserting that economic inequality can be a primary cause and has been in many cases. It Could Happen Here provides the full discussion of the chain of events that economic inequality often unleashes. One of these is typically an economic shock followed by a period of reform. We are in this now, and it similarly occurred after the very high economic inequality in 1928. It's when this period of reform, if accompanied by dashed expectations about a large segment of the population fails, that nations can encounter serious issues of political stability.
Unfortunately, it seems to me that, to date, we are far along in this cycle. Hopefully, we will have a successful period of reform. So, an important message of my book is that successful reform is even more important than most people recognize.
Second, you are correct when you ask what is "extreme inequality?" By U.S. standards we are at an extreme moment. As compared to the rest of the world, we are far less extreme. However, I think that the changes which have occurred over the past 30 years are sufficient to warrant concern.
Finally, as you know we can view our Gini index ranking as a cup half empty or half full. A few years ago the Harvad Magazine ran an article called "Unequal America" that included explaine dthe inde and our relative position:
"One widely used measure of inequality is the Gini coefficient, named for Italian statistician Corrado Gini, who first articulated the concept in 1912. The coefficient measures income distribution on a scale from zero (where income is perfectly equally distributed among all members of a society) to one (where a single person possesses all the income). For the United States, the Gini coefficient has risen from .35 in 1965 to .44 today. On the per-capita GDP scale, our neighbors are Sweden, Switzerland, and the U.K.; on the Gini scale, our neighbors include Sri Lanka, Mali, and Russia." (emphasis added) http://harvardmagazine.com/2008/07/unequal-america.html?page=0,1
So, we have the highest economic inequality of any industrialized nation. We are not yet at the level of Latin America, but we rank near the bottom of the OECD. It seems to me this should be a cause for concern.
This comment was originally posted on Curious Capitalist – TIME.com
I agree with you: a civil conversation about ideas help us to better understand our own positions, and occasional to change them. If I have to isolate the single biggest source of kepticism I have with the book, it is the thesis that economic inequality is a primary cause of revolutions and political disruption. It is an intensely researched subject. At this point, I think this conversation has achieved the best possible outcome: it clarified the issue and has interested me in the book. I'll read it when it comes out. If you read the comments in your blog, I'll drop you a note there.
This comment was originally posted on Curious Capitalist – TIME.com
Trackbacks & Pingbacks
- Links 9/15/09 « naked capitalism
- Bruce Judson says the Wall Street Journal is wrong and income inequality isn't going away - The Curious Capitalist - TIME.com
- BEEZERNOTES » Blog Archive » Wall Street Journal No Longer Trustworthy.
- Economic Inequality: The Wall Street Journal is Just Wrong | It Could Happen Here, Bruce Judson's Blog « EconProph
- Simoleon Sense » Blog Archive » Economic Inequality: The Wall Street Journal is Just Wrong
- Economic Inequality: The Wall Street Journal is Just Wrong « Economics Info
- New Income Inequality Data: Surprising and Frightening » New Deal 2.0
- Links: September 2009 « Consider the Evidence
- Income Inequality: No Such Thing – Good Thing – Necessary Evil – Gone Thing? « P.A.P. Blog – Politics, Art and Philosophy
- Glass-Steagall 2.0: The American People Deserve An Explanation » New Deal 2.0
- Citigroup's A-for-effort doesn't cut it: too big to fail institutions are too dangerous to exist » New Deal 2.0
- U.S. Income Inequality Is Frightening–And Much Worse Than We Thought « SF Gray Panthers
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ABC's "Nashville," NBC's "Chicago Fire" Premiere Wednesday Night
(NEW YORK) -- The highly-anticipated ABC series Nashville premieres Wednesday night.
Connie Britton, best known for her roles on Friday Night Lights and American Horror Story, plays country singer Rayna Jaymes. Rayna has had a long and successful career, but her relevance in the music industry is slowly beginning to fade.
Complicating matters for Rayna is the emergence of a young and attractive musician, Juliette Barnes, who's struggling with personal problems. Juliette is played by Hayden Panettiere.
Nashville airs at 10 p.m. Eastern time, opposite an NBC drama also making its debut Wednesday night: Chicago Fire. The series, from Law & Order creator Dick Wolf, follows the lives of firefighters, a rescue squad and paramedics in the Windy City.
If you're a comic fan, you may want to check out the new CW show Arrow at 8 p.m. Eastern time. It's an adaptation of the DC Comics character Green Arrow.
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There was nothing especially attractive about the old town of Bethlehem. But, as its stone walls and mud brick buildings appeared, far ahead, on the road, they made a welcome sight to Mary and Joseph. The trip there, though short, had been terribly wearing on Mary, several months pregnant. Now, the couple hoped, lodging and rest could be found.
There was nothing especially attractive about the old town of Bethlehem. But, as its stone walls and mud brick buildings appeared, far ahead, on the road, they made a welcome sight to Mary and Joseph. The trip there, though short, had been terribly wearing on Mary, several months pregnant. Now, the couple hoped, lodging and rest could be found.
It wasn't a trip they wanted. Joseph had a carpentry trade in the nearby town of Nazareth, where they lived. Time from work was costly. Mary would have willingly stayed back. But government decrees overruled business and personal comfort. The Roman emperor had issued an order for a mass census. In Israel, every person was to go to the town of his or her ancestry, and there enroll for the census list.
This meant a brief Bethlehem visit. Both Mary and Joseph, though not closely related, had records showing they were distant descendents of King David, who had ruled Israel about one thousand years earlier. The family of King David lived in Bethlehem.
Modern artists often picture the trip to Bethlehem showing Mary seated rather precariously on a donkey, led by Joseph. Very possibly, she rode in a small wagon. Whatever the transportation, it was hardly comfortable.
Trip hardships could not push back, for both, a few recent memories. An angel had told Mary, shortly before her marriage, that her future child would be the Son of God. Joseph received a similar message from an angel. The news was joyous, but carried some serious overtones. Still, with faith, and surely true love, Joseph made ready to take Mary as his wife in good standing.
The couple arrived in Bethlehem, with others who came for the census. No quarters at the local inn were available.
But the lodging shortage worked to their advantage. Near the inn was a stable. This actually offered more quiet privacy than the crowded inn. There the promised son was born.
Perhaps it seemed an ordinary birth, though Joseph and Mary knew better. And, soon enough, others would know world history was made.
Outside town, a group of shepherds were keeping night watch on the flocks. The hours wore on. Suddenly, there appeared out of the darkness a magnificent angel of the Lord. The air around the heavenly form shone with the radiance of the Lord's glory. As the shepherds stared in terror, the angel spoke: "Be not afraid. ..." Then the angel told them that a savior, Christ the Lord, had been born in Bethlehem. The angel said the baby would be found in a manger, that is, an animal feeding trough often used in a stable. Now a throng of other angels joined the messenger, and celebrated the news: "Glory to God in the Highest, And on earth peace among men in whom He is well pleased. " (Quotes: From Luke 2; American Standard Version -- 1901)
The angels, with the first dazzling Christmas light, went away. Eagerly, then, the shepherds hurried to town to see this special child. The angel's manger clue guided them to the stable. There the shepherds found the child, of this good news.
It was now news to share. After leaving the stable, these livestock business men became missionaries, telling others of the Savior they had seen. From Bethlehem, the message of Christ, who came to save souls, would go out to a needy world.
Today, that world includes you, and me. The message tells us that the newborn Christ would later remove the penalty for our sins. Everyone who believes in Christ will receive free forgiveness of sins and life forever in heaven.
What a gift -- at Christmas, or any time!
Through the Bible message, Christ still calls to the world, offering this gift of forgiven sins and life. If you haven't yet, put faith in Christ. Make today your Christmas. Then, in this faith, you can look forward to the joys of heaven, your home forever.
Art Maier is a semi-retired teacher, environmental science specialist and calligrapher. He is a regular columnist for the Boonville Daily News in Boonville, Mo. He can be contacted at email@example.com.


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By Jerry Harter, KF13 Indonesia
During my three months in Bali, I gained an appreciation of people's resourcefulness here. I encountered many ways that people make a living. Typically, families have multiple streams of income, although 'trickles of income' is a perhaps a more apt description.
Various small enterprises are cobbled together, depending on the resources and demand in the area. Often some money can be made from the land – crops, bee keeping, pig farming, a little more can be made from manufacturing – handicrafts, wood carving, brick making, and perhaps some income is derived from providing services – kiosks, transport, spa services.
For one reason or another, the following are some of my favorites.
Ice Vendor – My favorite small business during my time as a Kiva Fellow was the Ice Lady of Singaraja. I met her during my first week in Bali. She was one of the businesses that got its start with a loan from Koperasi Mitra Usaha Kecil (MUK), Kiva's microfinance partner in Bali. Aside from her bright smile, I was surprised that she was only 52 and the single mother of an eleven year old daughter.
They live in a shanty of a house with a rutted dirt floor. Little light enters her home and the furnishings are spare – a bed, a table, a couple of chairs, and most importantly her business equipment – two small freezers that she purchased with her loan. She runs her business from her home. It is quite simple. She fills plastic bags with water, freezes them, and sells them to fishermen – that's it. But as simple as this is, she makes an adequate living that allows her to send her daughter to school. With an education, her daughter's economic future will likely be brighter.
Soy Bean Soup Cart – One day while in the field with Pak Alit, the founder of MUK, we stopped in Singaraja on the north coast of Bali. We did a little shopping in town and then noticed a man pushing a food cart along the street. He was selling a concoction of cold soybeans in sweetened coconut milk.
As we hadn't eaten for a while, this seemed like a good way to get some fast-food before continuing our journey. Pak Alit ordered us a couple of servings and then struck up a conversation with the guy. I later learned that the man made a pretty good business.
Every day, he cooked up the beans at home, loaded his cart and hit the road. In four hours he was sold out and had made enough to live on for the day. However, although I really like the man's business model, I guess the main reason this hit my favorites list is that soybeans with sweetened coconut milk tastes really good!
Kiosks – The kiosk is ubiquitous throughout Bali. In fact, I've seen them in just about every country I've traveled. I love them. I love their simplicity, I love their potential, and I love all the little necessities and treasures they offer.
At the kiosk, I can expect to find packets of instant coffee, laundry detergent, batteries, and most importantly, exotic little packets of sweet or savory treats.
The store front is simple and colorful – sometimes consisting of no more than a two meter square wooden shack with colorful strings of packets dangling around the front window like Christmas ornaments. Other kiosks are larger, with room to walk and explore.
I often poke my head into a kiosk and look around. The shopkeeper asks what I want. However, I don't know how to say 'hidden treasures' or 'special treats.' So I look until I discover something and say 'saya mau tiga' – I want three of those.
It takes very little to start a kiosk, yet it has the potential of growing into a significant mini-market or more. Microloans are often provided for kiosks to enable owners to build the quantity and variety of their inventory. With a bit of luck and hard work, a small kiosk can grow into a significant business.
Honey Production – When I arrived in Blimbingsari, I noticed many small boxes hanging from trees by wires. I soon learned that many people around Blimbingsari keep bees for honey production.
It's a natural process, where a small box, perhaps a cubic foot in volume, is hung from a tree by wires (to keep ants away). The bees arrive from the surrounding forests and are naturally attracted to the boxes. They are not managed and maintained as is often done for honey production.
As there are many types of flowering plants in the area, the flavor of the honey will vary depending on what's currently blooming. Coconut and coffee flowers are considered to be particularly good sources.
People might keep about 50 boxes and produce about 30 liters of honey in two months which can sell for about $10 per liter. Microcredit loans have been used to grow honey production businesses by allowing entrepreneurs to build the boxes and process the honey.
Coconut Palm Sugar – Coconut palm sugar has gained a reputation as being more healthful than its cousin cane sugar. In Blimbingsari, palm sugar production is an important small business. An entrepreneur may have about 40 trees and be able to harvest and process 15kg of sugar in two days.
But it is not easy work. Twice a day, someone has to climb the trees, cut away a slice of the flower to allow the juices to flow, collect the flowing sweet juice, and then cook and process it for about 6 hours. The palm sugar is then poured into small containers, perhaps into half of a coconut shell.
The finished palm sugar will sell for about one dollar per kilo at the production level. The production workers will get about 90% of this and the owner of the trees about 10%.
And Many More… – There are many more types of small businesses in Bali – spas, woodcarving, brick making, motor bike taxis (ojeks), and of course pig farming to provide food for all the Balinese ceremonies. To support a small business that interests you, whether in Indonesia or elsewhere in the world, search for Kiva entrepreneurs at www.kiva.org/lend. Small loans really do make a difference in people's lives.Click to view slideshow.
Jerry Harter volunteered as a Kiva Fellow with Koperasi Mitra Usaha Kecil (MUK) in Bali, Indonesia from November 2010 through January 2011. Interested in alleviating poverty by supporting small entrepreneurs? Visit Kiva today and make a loan. And while you're there, check out the Kiva Fellows program.