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Does anyones baby watch television?
My 6 month old son loves to watch the television, especially shows on PlayHouse Disney and it is amazing but he actually pays attention. I was just wondering does anyone elses...
Started by Alisha on 05/10/2009 in Welcome To Circle Of Moms!!
Last update on 05/14/2009 by Nicola


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Louisiana anglers show clear affinity for redfish
Once upon a time, whenever one would ask a Louisiana saltwater fisherman if the fish were biting, the answer would be about redfish. Many of those really all-year-around fishermen were not really interested in speckled trout. In fact, there was little interest in flounder. Redfish were the prey, and not only in Louisiana but also in our great state. Unlike most of us do now, when these folks were afloat and saw feeding seagulls over speckled trout, the redfish anglers would simply ignore them and keep on doing their thing. If you have ever gone fishing for reds back in the inland lakes, marshes and bays, the appeal is obvious. Redfish are really great battlers, and if they are within the slot size, they are great table fare.
When heading out after primarily redfish, other than the surf bull reds, there are a good number of fishing techniques that have been tried and proven fruitful over the years. Probably the most fun chasing redfish is to look for them in the shallow marsh or along the shorelines of other waterways. The trick is to move around in the shallows as quietly as possible watching for the reds that are moving around feeding. For this, a shallow-draft boat is needed. Sometimes the fish will be feeding in water so shallow that you wonder how they remain covered with water. When you see what appears to be a torpedo making a swell or wake in the shallow water, that is likely feeding redfish.
The reds might also be located by seeing their dorsal and tail fins moving on the surface. I've always thought that those exposed fins moving around looked like a butterfly going along and getting a drink. Whenever you see either the torpedo-like movement or the fins, those redfish are likely feeding.
Whether to use lures or natural bait when going shallow is always the angler's choice. However, our marshes and those over in Louisiana are laden with vegetation. That makes the use of natural or live bait less attractive than lures. There are several lure types that will entice strikes by the golden-side reds. Most of the larger spinner lures or buzz baits will take the marsh reds. By using a larger blade, it is possible to retrieve the lure across the top of the vegetation with little problem. When fishing for redfish, my choice of lure color will be chartreuse with a gold or copper blade. Casting the lure out across the vegetation and retrieving it, making the blade slap the surface water — that's when the fish will strike. They might strike right up through the grass or when the lure is in an open area. Many times the battlers will merely grab the lure, and you had better be ready. I've never caught a redfish, no matter what size, that was not a super fighter.
My very favorite redfish lure in grassy marshes is gold weedless Johnson Silver Mirror. They come in various sizes and weights. I prefer either the 3/4 or 3/8 ounce, according to where they are being used.
For a topwater lures, use the shallow divers such as the Rogue, Redfin, etc. Whether colors matter or not, only the fish know for sure. My experience has been that orange or red bottom lures in the longer sizes will take reds whenever they are willing to hit them. Redfish are not constructed to feed on the surface, but they will at times. Their mouths are more for bottom feeding on shellfish. No matter what, they will test you when you use a shallow diving lure. Usually the outer edges of the grass or shallow shorelines are where the topwaters are more effective.
The use of live or cut bait is another way to take redfish. Most of the bait anglers will locate a deeper spot around a shallow slough or point, anchor out, and cast their baited hook into that likely looking spot. Live or cut mullet or shad will take redfish from these places. Some anglers will set out more than one rod and reel. Should you choose to do this, be sure that your drag is super loose, the gears are disengaged with the clicker engaged and be sure you have the rod secured in the boat. Redfish have been known to take a bait from an unsecured rod, and they can also take the rod and reel.
The redfish that are within the 20 to 28 inch slot will be welcome on the table. When filleted, be sure to remove any red meat. When baked, broiled or grilled whole, just rake the white meat from the bone and skin.
Billy Halfin can be reached at bhalfinoutdoors [at] aol [dot] com.

subset: commoncrawl


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- 1 Graphiti - a Graphical Tooling Infrastructure
- 1.1 Central Build
- 1.2 Coding
- 1.3 Installation for Graphiti Framework Developers
- 1.4 Mailing List
Graphiti - a Graphical Tooling Infrastructure
This page contains useful information for developers working on the Graphiti framework itself. Users of the framework (building Graphiti-based tools) should rather have a look onto our Eclipse page at http://www.eclipse.org/graphiti.
Central Build
Build Job
Our central Hudson build job can be found here. Graphiti uses Buckminster for its automated build and test run. See here for a detailed description of the Graphiti build process.
Providing the Build for a Milestone
These steps need to be done in order to provide a new delivery for an Eclipse milestone:
- The week before the milestone (see below)
- Update reference to Orbit in rmap file in the Graphiti releng project (latest S-build gets released in the week before the milestone or during the weekend). Orbit dowloads sites are listed here: http://download.eclipse.org/tools/orbit/downloads/
- Register at cross-project issues mailing list (https://dev.eclipse.org/mailman/listinfo/cross-project-issues-dev) and bugzilla component ([1])
- Add email adress to Graphiti part of aggregation build to get notified in case Graphiti causes the aggregation to fail. The wiki page wiki.eclipse.org/Indigo/Contributing_to_Indigo_Build describes what you need to do.
- Do at least one test build on Friday
- Update reference to Orbit in rmap file in the Graphiti releng project (latest S-build gets released in the week before the milestone or during the weekend). Orbit dowloads sites are listed here: http://download.eclipse.org/tools/orbit/downloads/
- The week of the milestone(see below)
- Do a milestone candidate build every day in the week of the milestone
- Update News&Noteworthy document (on Graphiti site and copy into doc plugin) before building last milestone
- Provide the final milestone build on +3 day
- Update the downloads page on our web site with the newest ZIP file link and update site content
- Do some more testing after +3 day using the EPP packages
- Check that everything gets installed correctly from the staging update site (sent around on cross-project issues mailing list as soon as it is ready)
How to do a build for Graphiti on Hudson and provide it as a Milestone
- Open https://hudson.eclipse.org/hudson and log on using your Eclipse dev user
- Go to the Graphiti build job (https://hudson.eclipse.org/hudson) and select build
- Set the build properties
- build_type "S"
- build_alias should be meaningfull, e.g. 0.9.0M1
- site_signing should be enabled
- Use shell access to build.eclipse.org to copy build result (ZIP and signed P2 site for 0.8 and before, ZIP and packed P2 site for versions 0.9 and beyond; both are stored after a successful build in the last_success folder of the build job at /opt/public/jobs/gmp-graphiti-nightly/workspace) to the Eclipse download area under graphiti/updates/milestones/<build name and ID> and graphiti/archives/milestones/<build name and ID>.
- Add the new update site to the composite milestones update site
- Use SFTP to access the build server and download the JARs describing the content of the composite update site
- Extract the XML files from them and add links to the new site
- Update the number of children and the date
- Create new JARs and upload them
- There's also some ANT tasks out there that should do the job...
- Do the testing on +2 day based on the daily milestone candidate
API Tooling
We use the Eclipse API tooling to fulfill Eclipse version number and API stability requirements. You have to define an API baseline if you are working on the Graphiti releases 0.8.x (service releases only) and beyond. For service releases use the same version as baseline (e.g. 0.8.0 for Indigo SR1) otherwise the last major release (e.g. 0.8.0 for Juno developement).
Coding Conventions
We use the standard Eclipse formatter for our coding with just one exceptional setting: the maximum line width is changed to 120. This setting can be found in the Eclipse preferences under 'Java -> Code Style -> Formatter' by editing the 'Eclipse [built-in]' profile on tab 'Line Wrapping': set the 'Maximum Line Width' in Section 'General settings' to 120.
To be sure that the formatter is really used for all your changes define your save actions (Eclipe preferences under 'Java -> Editor -> Save Actions') to include 'Format source code' with 'Format edited lines' only. Also enable the 'Organize imports' action on this page to get an automated clean-up of the import statements.
The source code of Graphiti is publicly available from the Eclipse Git repository. A general page on Git at Eclipse.org can be found here. If you just want to browse the source code without checking out all the projects, you can use this link for the web access to the Eclipse Git repository for Graphiti.
Git Anonymous Access
Please set up the following Eclipse Git repository location: <protocol>://git.eclipse.org/gitroot/gmp/org.eclipse.gmp.graphiti.git, where <protocol> is one of git, ssh or http dependending on what your your network infrastructure allows.
Committer Git Access
Same details as anonymous access, using git, ssh or https as protocol and specific username/password as assigned by Eclipse. Eclipse Git repository location is <protocol>://<Eclipse dev user name>@git.eclipse.org/gitroot/gmp/org.eclipse.gmp.graphiti.git
Here are the steps to set up EGit in Eclipse:
- Set environment variable HOME to define the folder where Git will clone repositories to, e.g. "C:\Users\<windows user name>\.git"
- Import Git repository:
- Supported protocols for cloning are git, ssh, http and https
- From behind a firewall http and https will work
- Recommendation is to use ssh (no firewall) or https (in case of a firewall)
- Open Windows --> Preferences --> Team --> Git --> Configuration and set the following user setting in the .gitconfig file in your HOME directory
- user.name <Eclipse dev user name>
- user.email <Email adress registered for Eclipse dev user>
Plugin Structure
In the Git repository you will find the following projects:
|Graphiti tutorial in Eclipse help
|Common parts for samples and test tools for Graphiti; helper UIs, e.g. repository explorer and wizard(for Graphiti internal use; must not be used by the Graphiti customers)
|Implementation of Graphiti tutorial in final stage
|Small example showing how the Eclipse capabilities mechanism can be used for Graphiti
|The feature containing purely the Graphiti framework without any additional functionality like SVG export
|The feature containing purely the Graphiti examples and documentation
|The feature containing the Graphiti framework, the examples and the documentation
|The feature containing the Graphiti framework, additional framework funktionality (currently only the SVG export), the examples and the documentation
|The feature defining the Graphiti update site content, needed for release engineering
|The feature containing the Graphiti tests
|Graphiti framework: UI platform independent part
|Graphiti framework: Export functionality (e.g. save as SVG) using Batik functionality
|Graphiti framework: EMF pictogram model
|Graphiti framework: an alternative generic approach to combine all implementation aspects in one pattern
|Graphiti framework: UI platform independent part
|Release engineering stuff needed for the Buckminster based build
|Graphiti internal UI and SWT Bot tests
|Graphiti internal tests for UI independent part
|Graphiti internal test tool Ecore editing
|Graphiti internal test tool Sketch editing
|Graphiti internal tests for UI dependent part
Working on Bugzillas (Contributions and Commiting)
This is what you should do to fully complete a Bugzilla:
- Of course, fix the bug or provide the enhancement
- Create a JUnit test testing the change and add it to one of the Graphiti test suites
- Prefered tests are the pure JUnit tests, if not possible also adding to the SWTBot test suite (as JUnit Plugin or real SWTBot test) is ok as well
- It should be green, of course ;-)
- All other tests contained in all the test suites should still pass
- Check for any warnings in your coding and fix them if possible
- Provide some kind of raw documentation for your change, this may be directly in the Bugzilla, in the JavaDoc, on this Wiki page or in the online help (e.g. in the tutorial)
- Bugs will need very little documentation, while functional enhancements will need more attention
Installation for Graphiti Framework Developers
As development IDE you should use the newest Eclipse installation of your choice, at the time this was written the newest Eclipse version was 3.7 (Indigo). You will need SWTBot in your developement IDE to be able to run the Graphiti SWTBot-based UI tests. Also you will need to add Buckminster (version 3.7 at the time this was written) to your installation. For more details see the Getting Started Guide.
Basically you will need the same installation for your target platform as well, but it needs to contain EMF SDK, EMF Transactions SDK and GEF SDK (see getting started guide). Buckminster is not needed here, but SWTBot is. Additionally you will need to install GMF runtime (it hosts some vector support functionality we use from export.batik plugin that you have to collect individually otherwise).
Workspace Settings
Most settings for the workspace you need to set for Graphiti framework development are maintained as project precific settings and are checked-in to our repository. So you will not need to care about things like the correct code formatters, compiler settings, API tooling settings, etc.
What you need to set additioanlly are these things:
- You need to define an API baseline to let the API Tooling check against. This can be done in the preferences under Plug-in Development -> API Baselines. Just add a new baseline here; the easiest way to do this is to point to an existing Eclipse installation containing the lastest major release of Graphiti. At the time of writing this (Development for Eclipse Juno), this was Graphiti 0.8.0.
- You need to install the supported environments into your Eclipse IDE; these are e.g. J2SE-1.5 and J2SE-1.6. They are needed to let the API Tooling check if any forbidden references to Java functionality is made. Rational behind is that Graphiti uses (for project historical reasons) Java 1.6 and has lots of @override tags defined for interface method overloading, but on the other hand needs to integrate with other Eclipse projects using Java 1.5. In order to achieve this the class file output is set to Java 1.5 while the source can be 1.6 compatible. The environment definitions allow the API tooling to check if what is referenced is really allowed for the final runtime environment Java 1.5. Details on this are explained here: eclipseandjazz.blogspot.com/2011/10/of-invalid-references-to-system.html
The supported environments can simply be installed from the Eclipse projects update site (download.eclipse.org/eclipse/updates/3.7 for Indigo); browse for "description" there and simply install all found environment descriptions.
Note: Missing environment descriptions will lead to strange compile errors in your workspace! Some errors like "project cannot be build until org.eclipse.graphiti has been build" while org.eclipse.graphiti appearently has build without any errors.
See bug 361932 for the reason why this has been introduced.
Mailing List
The Graphiti developer mailing list allows to follow and participate in discussions on the Graphiti framework. You can subscribe here.


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Great news! African Shark Eco-Charters has earned a 2013 Certificate of Excellence from TripAdvisor. Been on a shark cage diving or breaching trip with us recently? Please write your review on trip advisor so guests can see what your experience was like with the amazing great white sharks.
Join us on one of our "Airjaws" shark breaching trips to witness this spectacular breaching behaviour of the Great White Sharks. This is certainly something that you do not want to miss!
Here is some further information on our Great White Shark breaching trips.
We would consider our high season to be from May to end of August and the best months for the predation and breaching activity is during June, July and August. September is in between high and intermediate season. February and March is too early for breaching. Here our trips focus on the shark cage diving and surface viewing.
Transfers: Optional: Return transfers from designated pickup points in Cape Town
Duration: Approx 5.5 hours. The trip departs from Simon's town at 7am sharp and returns at 12h30.
Here are some very important questions to ask when choosing a great white shark operator. Sadly many people don't ask and then regret it later.
How many passengers on your boat? 12. We focus on smaller groups to ensure that everyone has a personal experience with the great white sharks.
How many divers in the shark cage? 2 maximum. Many operators take 5-8 guests at a time.
Do you offer scuba? Yes. All diving equipment is supplied. No diving experience is necessary however you are welcome to snorkel as well. Most operators only allow you to hold your breath, seriously!
Does using scuba affect the sharks coming to the boat? No. If it did we would not do it! Working in False Bay since 1996, we have found that the bubbles or scuba noise have no effect on the great white sharks. Most operators don't like to work with scuba as re-filling tanks is a bother and they don't want to do it.
Do you use shark liver to attract sharks? No
What to bring on your shark breaching AIRJAWS trip
- Rain/wind jacket
- Sun block and Hat
- Camera (we sell disposable underwater camera's)
- Take sea sick tablets
Please Note: We have a very high success rate, however with all wild animals, shark sightings, activity, predation events and shark breaching can vary from day to day. Even during peak season there may be days when we do not see any great white shark breaching or predatory events.
Please be aware of this, so you do not arrive with unrealistic expectations. Rather come hoping to see these natural events, than expecting. No refunds will be made for non-sightings. We will however offer you a voucher for another trip.
We hope to see you join one of our spectacular AIRJAWS trips!


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LOS ANGELES, Jan. 27 (UPI) -- Kathy Bates, George Clooney, Jessica Chastain and Ben Kingsley are to be presenters at this weekend's Screen Actors Guild Awards show in Los Angeles.
Also expected to hand out statuettes are Melissa McCarthy, Brad Pitt, Zoe Saldana, Owen Wilson and Kristen Wiig, telecast executive producer Jeff Margolis announced Wednesday.
They join a roster of previously announced presenters that includes Kevin Bacon, Kenneth Branagh, Kyle Chandler, Matt Czuchry, Patrick Duffy, Jean Dujardin, Tina Fey, Linda Gray, Judy Greer, Larry Hagman, Armie Hammer, Ed Helms, Regina King, John Krasinski, Julianna Margulies, Natalie Portman, Maya Rudolph, Kyra Sedgwick, Octavia Spencer, Meryl Streep and Michelle Williams.
Dick Van Dyke will present the guild's 48th Life Achievement Award to Mary Tyler Moore, his co-star on "The Dick Van Dyke Show," and the star of the long-running "Mary Tyler Moore Show."
The ceremony is to be simulcast live on TNT and TBS Sunday.


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Founded in 1982, Oasis is a non-profit educational organization that is active in over 250 communities and reaches more than 50,000 individuals each year.
Our mission is to promote healthy aging through lifelong learning, active lifestyles and volunteer engagement.
Our vision is to see that adults age 50 and older across the country have opportunities to pursue vibrant, healthy, productive and meaningful lives.
We seek to positively impact their lives through partnerships to share knowledge, offer evidence- and research-based programs, conduct evaluations and adapt to meet the needs of diverse audiences.
The Oasis Institute in St. Louis is the national headquarters. The Institute develops national programs and provides training and support for Oasis education centers and partners. Oasis education centers are located in community sites,
Our network of hundreds of partners includes health providers, corporations, senior centers, community organizations, libraries, universities and colleges, senior living organizations and more. Meet our Partners.
Oasis puts into practice the landmark MacArthur Foundation study of successful aging. Researchers Rowe and Kahn found that the key ingredients for a high quality of life are maintaining a low risk for disease, a high level of engagement with the community and high physical and cognitive function, and "it is the combination of all three that represents the concept of successful aging fully."
See a map of Oasis Cities
The Oasis Institute - National Office
11780 Borman Drive
St. Louis, MO 63146
(314) 862-2933
Contact your Local Oasis
Staff Directory
Subscribe to eNewsletter
Connections Surveys
Tutoring Surveys
Privacy Policy
Site Map


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When you're out on the water, you need a dependable way to keep in touch with others and stay tuned into the weather forecast. These VHF and CB radios help ensure you can dial in the right frequency for NOAA weather channels and other useful radio channels, as well as contact others when you need to. Choose from a variety of handheld and fixed-mount VHF marine radios in this selection, and look through the rest of our boating and marine assortment to find other important tools to have out on the open water.
Marine electronics have come a long way in recent years, allowing these boat radios to provide features that can help maximize safety out on the water and ensure you're coming through clear. Weather alerts let you know the moment there's inclement weather on the horizon, while rechargeable batteries help ensure you have the power to keep your radio going for the entire trip. Noise-canceling technology helps eliminate background noise when speaking over the radio, and some radios even have technology to vibrate water out of the speaker for clear audio on your end. Whatever your needs may be, you can find a powerful radio in this selection to accommodate them.


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Patty Hendrickson necesitaba un nuevo diseño de impreso o envases y lanzó un concurso de diseño en 99designs.
Un ganador ha sido elegido entre 45 diseños de 9 diseñadores freelance.
Patty Hendrickson, CSP
Established professional speaker, speaking since 1987. Usually speaks to youth audiences (15 - 24 year olds) who are involved in leadership roles. These students get involved in their communities and make a difference. My speaking programs are very interactive and high-energy. I have a very youthful approach to get people moving, listening and learning.
These booklets are purchased by student leaders (15 - 24 year olds) who are involved in leadership roles. They are savvy, yet usually professional in their approach.
These two booklet covers will be printed full/multi color on 8 pt gloss stock. The inside text is printed on white stock and saddlestitched. The two covers need to be complementary.
Booklet #1 is titled
"Activity Energizer Resource Booklet
Over 101 Ideas to Liven-Up Your Organization"
This booklet is full of fun ideas and interactive games for students to use with their organizations. It's a resource guide.
Booklet #2 is titled
"So What Now? Keeping It Real
Your Little Book For Your Big Adventure"
This booklet is used by students after experiencing an intense leadership conference. Students are encouraged to make plans to continue their leadership adventure growing their leadership skills. This is extremely motivational.
http://www.pattyhendrickson.com/pro…hp?pid=100 shows the cover of my existing book that I like. It also shows the general light blue and yellow colors we use on everything. My website is a good resource.
Please include/incorporate the light blue and yellow colors. I like the cloud look in the background, but it isn't a must to include. No cartoons or comics. Clip art is okay. Hip, yet professional is key.
You are the expert!
The backside of both booklets should carry the front cover design onto the back. I'd also like include the price of $5.00 US; my website http://www.pattyhendrickson.com; a small image of my picture (file attached); and my name with logo.


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Renowned for a super-cool masculine appeal, famous British brand Joseph has unveiled their new spring/summer 2013 pre-collection. And boy oh boy, one can discover some seriously stylish pieces that guarantee to give a mega-boost to your wardrobes. Well, what can be more fashionable and hip than an array of effortlessly chic goodies and military-inspired combos? The Joseph pre-collection for spring/summer 2013 mixes different and often opposing stories to create a unique, special image. The Joseph girl seems to be strong and sexy with... Read More


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Community survival during the coming energy decline
From MediaWiki
By Jan Steinman and Diana Leafe Christian
Imagine community life in a world with increasingly scarce and expensive fossil fuel -- oil, coal, and natural gas.
"Well, we've got off-grid power from solar panels and wind power," a community might say, "and we've got wood stoves, too. No matter how high the price of gas goes, we'll be fine."
Perhaps, but does the community buy any food items they don't grow themselves? While its members can certainly bicycle, car-pool, or use biodiesel to get to the local food co-op, are any of these food items grown, processed, or packaged in other regions? If so, they'll pay for the ever-increasing cost of transporting these items into their area. The same is true if the community uses local suppliers for seeds, soil amendments, fencing, hand tools, or other gardening supplies that originate elsewhere, or building supplies from other regions -- from lumber to cement blocks to electrical supplies and PVC pipe.
But this is only considering the rising price of gasoline. It's harder to grasp, but equally true, that the cost of all manufactured goods themselves will steadily increase in price -- because manufactured goods are tied to the price of oil. Why? First there's the electricity used in factories to manufacture things: the electric power in most regions of the world is generated in power plants fueled by non-renewable fossil fuel. Second, there's the use of metal in manufactured items, which must be mined, smelted, and formed into parts -- all of which requires electrical power. The same is true of rubber, machine oil, glass, and other materials used in manufactured goods -- not to mention the silicon used in items from solar panels to computer chips. Third, there's the plastic used in manufactured items themselves, and the plastic used in the packaging and shipping of such items -- since plastic itself is made from oil.
What happens when a community's wind turbine or inverter needs a new part? Most likely its members are used to picking up a mouse or a phone, finding the part hundreds or thousands of miles away, performing an electronic transaction that depends on the fossil-fuel-powered infrastructures of electricity, telecommunications, and banking, and then a large brown truck -- powered by fossil fuel -- brings the part in a week or so. But with the coming energy decline it, won't be so easy.
And even if the community did happen to have an "Off-Grid Power Parts 'R Us" franchise nearby, does that store actually mine the copper, aluminum, iron, tin, cobalt, antimony, beryllium, niobium, and various other metals that they smelt, forge, and extrude into wind turbine or inverter parts -- and have equally basic methods for obtaining any rubber, plastic, glass, or silicon required for these parts? And if they do happen to have such parts on hand, their seeming availability just masks the dependence on fossil fuel driven infrastructure that goes to the very core of our civilization.
Well, you get the picture. But there's more. Many rural communities are already growing at least some of their own food, but outside of the tiny percentage of food that's organically grown, the entire food industry (and thus, the world's burgeoning population) is totally dependent on fossil fuel. That's because most non-organic fertilizer is either made from the byproducts of refining oil, or from natural gas. As a civilization, we are literally eating fossil fuel, from the natural gas that produces virtually all commercial fertilizer; to the diesel farm machinery that prepares the land, weeds the crops, and harvests and distributes the yield; to the energy-intensive processing, packaging, and distribution networks that get the food to us. And this doesn't even include the fuel used in home preparation and cooking.
All told, about 10 calories of fossil fuel goes into each single calorie of food we eat (not counting fuel used for cooking). And make that ratio at least 100:1 for heavily processed foods.
So agribiz-grown food (even though we communitarians don't eat it), heating oil for home furnaces (even though we choose renewable heating sources), manufactured goods (even though we eschew most of them), and transportation fuel (even though we car-pool or bicycle), all affect the greater economy. And most ecovillages and intentional communities are embedded to some degree in the greater economy -- whether we intend it or not -- and the greater economy is completely driven by fossil fuel. And it's not just the economy -- it's almost everything we take for granted as a given in our lives: modern medicine (antibiotics, anesthetics, insulin, glasses, hearing aids); holistic medicine (nutritional supplements, Chinese herbs); communications (telephone lines, electronic switching equipment, satellite dishes, satellites themselves, computers, networks, modems, servers); law and order (police cars, police communication systems, police officers' salaries), the ability to govern -- these a but a few examples of non-obvious things we take for granted that are totally dependent on fossil fuel.
This means, of course, that as the supplies of fossil fuel become more scarce, and the price of oil and natural gas goes up, everything will become more expensive. As the economy worsens many businesses will severely downsize or even shut down because they can no longer afford parts, repairs, or needed services. Thousands of people, then tens of thousands, then hundreds of thousands, may lose their jobs. Thus while living in an ecovillage or other kind of intentional community or a sustainably organized neighborhood may make us less reliant on the typical energy sources and commercial products of mainstream life, it is not automatic protection from the coming energy decline. The Great Depression of the 1930s and the gasoline shortages of the 1970s were just the warm-up act for what is coming -- the permanent, irrevocable decline of fossil fuel.
And it will impact those of us living in intentional communities -- whether or not we grow our own food or are off the grid.
What is "Peak Oil"?
"But I heard that there is at least as much more oil available as we've used already -- we've only used about half," you might say. "Things can't be so dire."
You're right -- we aren't "running out of oil" just yet. But it is not so simple as that. People think of petroleum like they think of their car's gas tank, with an "E" on the left, an "F" on the right, and a pointer that is currently somewhere near the middle. But the way fossil energy really works is that it follows a classic bell-shaped curve: a small amount of available energy starts out being fairly cheap, then we figure out how to make use of the most easily available, cheapest sources, and quickly use them up. Then at the mid-point, all the cheap energy is gone, and the "second half" takes increasingly more effort to produce, even as the total amount produced declines year after year.
We are very near -- if not already past -- that crucial mid-point for petroleum. We are at Peak Oil.
The concept of peak resource depletion means that energy will continue to get increasingly expensive, at a fairly rapid rate. Post-peak oil shortage estimates, at current consumption levels, range from four percent to eight percent annually -- this means that the available fossil fuel will be reduced by half every 10 to 20 years. Thus the cost of oil will continue increasing at about the same a rate that is much greater than the rate of decline, since there are so many more of us living now than there were on the front-side of the bell-curve. When demand out-paces supply for something so essential, chaotic swings in prices will make simple price prediction impossible. These huge swings will bankrupt many people -- and make a very few, very rich.
Plus, demand is rising. Not only are people in the Western world demanding more oil, but China and India are developing voracious appetites for energy -- they want the lifestyle that cheap energy has given so-called developed nations for the past 50 or so years. Modern civilization's existence is predicated upon ever-increasing economic growth -- and such growth simply cannot continue indefinitely in a system with finite fossil fuel and timber resources, like Planet Earth.
"But there's a 200-year supply of coal, at today's consumption levels!" There's that bugbear: at today's consumption level. We need to look at the rate of total energy recovered over the amount of energy used up to make reasonable predictions. For example, it originally took 1 barrel of oil to create the equivalent of 100 barrels of oil worth of energy, but currently it takes about 20 barrels of oil to create the same amount of energy -- and the ratio is steadily getting worse. When petroleum and natural gas go into decline, there will be pressure to make up for their missing energy, and there's talk of coal gasification and liquefaction to replace the gas and oil, so coal will be consumed much faster than it is today. So even if using coal gets us over the crisis of Peak Oil and Peak Gas, a child born today will still have to endure "Peak Coal" in her lifetime (not to mention the ghastly environmental impacts of burning coal on a large scale). Humanity will eventually have to learn to live within the planet's energy budget: the energy falling on the Earth's surface from the sun.
Likewise, none of the renewable sources available can continue our energy gluttony at today's consumption level. You can't just pave the entire desert Southwest with solar cells, or turn several Midwest states and provinces into biofuel farms, or clutter every inch of our coastlines with huge wind turbines -- the energy input to do so is too great. Remember, we're measuring the ratio of the total energy recovered to the total energy we're using up -- you have to get more out of it than you put into it. For example, Cornell University has studied current ethanol production, and determined that each unit of ethanol energy requires 117 percent of fossil fuel energy to produce. So using ethanol fuel doesn't really help anything!
This is not to say that we should not try to use any and all renewable energy sources in a responsible way; it's simply that nothing can maintain our current energy gluttony, and the future is one of increasingly expensive and precious energy -- no matter the source.
"But at least we've got our wood heat," a community might say. "At least that's renewable!" Yes, but for how long, and at what cost? Throughout history, civilizations have gotten into deep trouble by "timber mining" at unsustainable levels. The Greeks, for example, once lived on fertile forested mountains and islands. After centuries of logging their forests for homes, ship building, and firewood, they used up their timber resources, and the forests did not grow back and Greece became the relatively arid landscape it is today. It is only since the availability of fossil fuel in the mid-1850s that the population on every inhabited continent has been able to increase without disastrous timber harvests.
If the price of the natural gas that heats many of the homes in North America goes up by a factor of 10, how many trees are going to be left standing when people start burning every tree in sight just to stay warm? (And in such a case, who will be able to breathe the air?) Keep in mind that there are about 10 times the number of people on the planet now as there were when humanity last depended entirely on wood for energy!
Although things look bleak for current generations, Peak Oil offers humanity an opportunity to learn and prepare for the inevitable Peak Coal that will impact generations to come. It's too late to hope for a pleasant decline from Peak Oil, but if we pay attention, humanity may choose to plan for a long and orderly Peak Coal.
Is Intentional Community the Answer?
Julian Darley, author of High Noon for Natural Gas and founder of the Post Carbon Institute, believes civilization is necessarily headed down the path of "re-localization"; that is, reversing the energy-fed globalization trend that has wracked the Earth for the past century or so. Those who already enjoy a measure of self-sufficiency, such as ecovillages and other kinds of sustainable intentional communities as well as sustainably organized neighborhoods, will already have the skills and experience needed for re-localization.
"This is a time of tremendous challenge," says Richard Heinberg, author of The Party's Over and Powerdown, "but also a time of great opportunity." In Powerdown, Heinberg notes that small, self-sustaining communities may become cultural lifeboats in times to come. "Our society is going to change profoundly -- those of us who understand this are in a position to steward that change. We are going to become popular, needed people in our communities." When asked at a Peak Oil conference in 2005 about what can be done, one of the things Heinberg replied was, "Start an ecovillage!"
These changes are not going to happen overnight. James Howard Kunstler, author of The Long Emergency, calls the coming energy decline "the long emergency" because it is occurring almost too gradually for most of us to register. The energy decline is often compared to the metaphor about boiling frog: if you want to cook frogs and you put them in boiling water, they will immediately hop out, but if you put frogs in room-temperature water and only gradually turn up the heat, the frogs will stay in the water -- not noticing it's gradually getting warmer -- and slowly cook to death.
We could say this is happening to our civilization at large. Most of us have a vague feeling that things in general are getting worse, but from minute-to-minute, day-to-day, and even year-to-year, the worsening is not enough to get us to change our energy-consuming ways.
The Trends Research Institute, a network of interdisciplinary experts who forecast developing trends, echoes Darley's prediction for "re-localization." One of the hottest trends they see is a "rapidly growing desire of more people to be self-empowered, non-reliant, and 'off the grid'" -- in the broadest possible sense, as in "off the grid" of mainstream society. Such as, for example, ecovillages, sustainable intentional communities, and organized neighborhoods.
"It's time to return to the community," says Pat Murphy, executive director of Community Service, Inc., ";to clean up the mess and get back on the right path." Murphy ended his organization's second annual conference on Peak Oil and Community Solution by noting that the survivors of this crisis will be those who seek out a "low-energy, caring community way of living."
Humanity faces its biggest challenge since at least World Wars I and II, or perhaps even since the great plagues of the Middle Ages, or perhaps ever. No matter how prepared an intentional community or organized neighborhood may be, it will be adversely impacted in some way.
Is Intentional Community Enough?
Experts suggest several possible numerous scenarios for the coming energy decline. These range from a "magical elixir" scenario -- a totally unexpected technological fix, to a "power-down soft landing" scenario of everyone cooperating to reduce energy use by perhaps 90 percent or more, to a "Mad Max" scenario of anarchy and insurrection. Some even whisper the possibility of human extinction, since by most measures, we have overshot our resource base, which ecologists believe is often a cause of extinction. But the point is, any of these scenarios will present significant challenges for intentional communities.
In the "soft landing" scenario, there will still be massive structural changes in society, with winners and losers. In this and other scenarios, being in debt may be the undoing of many.
Let's say a community is deeply in debt, for example, and is still paying off its property purchase or one or more construction loans. Let's say the community loses its financial resource base -- if many members lose their jobs, for example, or if a weak economy reduces the market for the goods and services the community produces -- the group could default on its loan payments, and may have its property seized by the bank or other creditors. Common advice among Peak Oil experts is to get out of debt! (Although a vocal minority say you should take on as much fixed-interest debt as possible, in the hope that escalating energy prices will inflate the debt away.)
A property-value crash may worsen the debt situation for intentional communities. During the last oil crisis, the market value of prime farmland fell by 30 percent or more. If a community's property value falls below their equity in the property, they won't be able to save themselves from defaulting on loans by selling off their land, which is typically the last resort of farmers in debt. (Again, a vocal minority claims that as energy prices escalate, fertile farmland will also increase in value.)
All the shortages and systems failures that can affect mainstream culture can affect intentional communities and organized neighborhoods as well. But just "living in community" will not confer any kind of immunity from this gradual but drastic change. A community in a mountain forest setting may have plenty of water and firewood, for example, but little flat, arable land for growing food. A community on the prairie may have plenty of water and fertile, arable land, but little firewood. A community in the Great Plains may have plenty of sunshine for passive solar heating and off-grid power from solar-panels, but not enough water for growing food or firewood. A rural community may have enough space to grow food but little help from the outside; an urban community or organized neighborhood may have little place to grow vegetables, but proximity to food distribution networks and local government assistance. But any community may not have enough foresight, labor, tools, or funds to create alternatives to whatever their members use now for heating, lighting, cooking, refrigeration, water collection, water pumping, and disposal utilization of gray water and human waste.
Then there's the tenuous matter of community security -- a subject many find "politically incorrect" to even consider. Many communities that embrace nonviolence may find it difficult to nonviolently defend their community in the face of anarchy or insurrection in the society around them. If the local government fails; if a local law and order system falls apart, there can be various kinds of dangerous consequences. Desperate, hungry people can loot and steal and take what they want from others. Vigilante groups can form to either deal with the lawlessness, and/or take what they want themselves. State or national government can declare martial law, rescind constitutional liberties, send in troops, and restore order and/or take what they want from others. Having supportive neighbors and good networking in the greater community may help. But in the worst-case, "Mad Max" scenario, it may not help much.
Embracing weaponry for self-defense may not be useful, either, as the presence of weapons and ammunition may simply make one a more attractive target of people who want to get their hands on the community's weapons.
Another, much more basic and subtle challenge to preparing for the coming energy decline is even being able to start or "join an ecovillage" in the first place! It's really hard to start a new community in today's political, cultural, and financial environment. Land prices are exorbitant and getting more so every day. Zoning restrictions, designed to protect homeowners' property values, can severely limit a group's ability to create the community they want with the numbers of people they need. Building codes, designed to protect a county from lawsuits from approving unsafe buildings, and county and state health codes, designed to keep people safe from biological and other health hazards, can stop a community's sustainability plans faster than you can say, "That's illegal!" And the all-too-human tendency to bring habitual reactive and destructive behaviors to community settings -- making it hard to get along well and resolve inevitable conflicts -- can make cooperating with friends or neighbors, especially in frightening and desperate times, even more challenging than it normally is.
It is also difficult to radically change one's energy-consuming lifestyle. It may be easy to think, "I'd like to join an ecovillage some day" or "I'll stop depending so much on fossil fuels and live a more sustainable lifestyle soon," yet it's easy to become inexorably distracted from that goal by the demands of jobs, family, and other responsibilities. Tearing oneself away from the status quo may be the most difficult thing we can ever do. Once we make the break, resisting the allure of today's cheap-energy lifestyle can be a constant effort.
Yet we must. The experts agree: the future will have more in common with the 18th century than it does with the 20th. Societal upheavals will favor those who have prepared over those who come to realization late, without building community and sustainability skills.
In just a century and a half humanity has spent down about half of its "bank account" of formerly cheap energy that has taken millions of years to accumulate. This may be our species' greatest crisis ever, and there will be a very few winners, and possibly billions of losers over the rest of our lives and longer. The winners will be either those with the power to hoard much of the remaining fossil energy, or those with the foresight, knowledge, resources, and will to live within the Earth's sustainable energy budget.
We certainly have no answers, solutions, or "magic bullets" for this dilemma. We both believe it's better to live cooperatively and sustainably with others, but we don't know what else is needed to truly be prepared for the inevitable energy decline. Is it better to be widely connected with one's neighbors and bioregion, or isolated and inaccessible? Is it better to grow all of one's own food and generate all of one's own energy, or to create a tight web of trade and barter relationships with one's friends and neighbors, supplying some of what they need and vice-versa? Our contributors to this issue offer various perspectives, and we hope you find them thought-provoking. We are sure of one thing though: people who understand what is happening, and act with others of like mind to build sustainable agriculture, culture, and energy systems -- in right relationship with the Earth's finite energy resources -- will have at least a chance to live fulfilling lives in these challenging times.
Jan Steinman has been a ski instructor, electrical design engineer, software engineer, and fine-art photographer, among many other pursuits. He drives with biofuels, strives to be an alternative lifestyle pioneer, and is a founding member of EcoReality.
Diana Leafe Christian is editor of Communities magazine and author of Creating Life Together: Practical Tools to Grow Ecovillages and Intentional Communities, and was a speaker at Community Service, Inc.'s "Peak Oil and Community Solutions" conference in 2005. She lives at Earthaven Ecovillage in North Carolina.
Resources for Learning More About Peak Oil
The End of Suburbia. This 78-minute video (on VHS or DVD), describes, with humor and fact, the energy crisis and how it happened, with testimony by leading petroleum engineers and Peak Oil researchers, including Julian Darley, Richard Heinberg, James Howard Kunstler, and others. www.EndOfSuburbia.com.
The Power of Community: How Cuba Survived Peak Oil, Meagan Quinn and The Community Solution. Inspiring, hopeful 60-minute documentary of Cuba's crisis and recovery when they ran out of oil 12 years ago, from permaculture design and solar energy, to city gardening on rooftops and balconies, to organic farming with oxen. (Info on how to get it goes here.)
The Party's Over and Powerdown, Richard Heinberg. Two of the most popular books that present this information in a readable way to lay people. New Society Publishers, 2003 and 2004, respectively.
High Noon for Natural Gas, Julian Darley. A hard-hitting look at an energy source that rapidly went from nuisance to crutch, and the implications of our increased dependence on a resource that will soon be in rapid decline. Chelsea Green Publishing Company, 2004.
Relocalize Now!: Getting Ready for Climate Change and the End of Cheap Oil, Julian Darley. Timely advice for re-creating local communities that can begin to build "parallel public infrastructures" for survival during the coming energy decline. New Society Publishers, 2006.
The Long Emergency, James Howard Kunstler. Kunstler's view of what life in the near future will be like, post Peak Oil. Grove Press, 2006.
The Oil Age is Over: What to Expect as the World Runs Out of Cheap Oil: 2005-2050, Matt Savinar. With a question and answer format, one of the easiest resources to understand what's happening and why; also one of the least optimistic (some would say "most realistic") perspectives of what's going to happen. Available mail-order or paid download from the author's website: www.LifeAfterTheOilCrash.net.
- http://www.CommunitySolution.org. Website of Community Service, Inc., sponsors of the annual conference: "Peak Oil And Community Solutions." "Dedicated to the development, growth, and enhancement of small local communities... that are sustainable, diverse, and culturally sophisticated."
- http://www.EnergyBulletin.net. "A clearinghouse for current information regarding the peak in global energy supply."
- http://www.PostCarbon.org. Julian Darley's website. "Our mission is to assist societies in their efforts to re-localize communities and adapt to an energy-constrained world."
- http://www.MuseLetter.com. Richard Heinberg's website. "A monthly exploration of cultural renewal."
- http://www.Dieoff.com. A massive collection of articles, assembled by Jay Hanson, regarding the relationship between resource depletion and population, including full text of many seminal scientific papers and published works.
- http://www.TheLeadershipSchool.com. "Committed to training the next generation in the sustainable skills of the 21st century."
- http://www.TrendsResearch.com. "Discover the future, see tomorrow's trends today," Trends Research Institute
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Export 4 results:Title Type [ Year]
Filters: Author is M Wilson [Clear All Filters]
"Domain-independent heuristics for goal formulation", Proceedings of the Twenty-Sixth Florida Artificial Intelligence Research Society Conference. AAAI Press, St. Pete Beach, FL, pp. 160-165, 2013. Download PDF (1.18 MB),
"Towards applying goal autonomy for vehicle control", in Goal Reasoning: Papers from the ACS Workshop, College Park MD, 2013. Download PDF (343.76 KB),
"Bounded expectations for discrepancy detection in goal-driven autonomy", AAAI, Quebec City, Canada, WS-01-14, 2014. Download PDF (680.04 KB),
" Iterative goal refinement for robotics", Planning and Robotics: Papers from the ICAPS Workshop. AAAI Press, Portsmouth, NH, 2014. Download PDF (704.64 KB),


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Outaouais is a region of western Quebec, Canada. It includes the cities of Gatineau (Hull, Aylmer), the Pontiac region, and the town of Maniwaki, and is located on the north side of the Ottawa River opposite Canada's capital, Ottawa. It has a land area of 30,760.05 km² (11,876.52 sq mi) and a 2006 census population of 341,096 inhabitants.
It is currently known as one of the most bilingual regions in the province of Quebec.
No matter what the season, there are many special events, activities and sites to see in the Outaouais. To keep up to date with what is going on in this exciting region, visit www.tourismeoutaouais.com.


text: 2019 Toyota C-HR XLE XLEPearl Toyota C-HR 2.0L I4 DOHC 16V CVT FWD27/31 City/Highway MPG 27/31 City/Highway MPGNo Dealer Fees at Earl Stewart! Dealer fees increase the total price of the car you're buying. You'll find them hidden alongside state fees, such as the registration and title. Dealer fees are included to profit the dealership, and they can range from a couple hundred dollars to a couple thousand. At Earl Stewart Toyota, we believe in upfront fair pricing with no haggling, and you'll never see a dealer fee from us. We promise no funny business – just a simple, honest car-buying experience.


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Hyongho Park-Savior's Hand Free Firefighter's Hands
At Design Interviews
Interview with Hyongho Park : Frank Scott: What is the main principle, idea and inspiration behind your design?. Hyongho Park : Ergonomic. Always main principle of my design is human and it is where my every idea and inspiration begin. .Frank Scott: What has been your main focus in designing this work? Especially what did you want to achieve?. Hyongho Park : I focused on efficiency of how it works and comfort for people who will be rescued. .Frank Scott: What are your future plans for this award winning design?. Hyongho Park : Nothing has been decided yet, but soon or later I will do re-plan. .Frank Scott: How long did it take you to design this particular concept?. Hyongho Park : First it's inspiration comes up 2 years ago but I did not have enough knowledge or skill to make the idea real. .Frank Scott: Why did you design this particular concept? Was this design commissioned or did you decide to pursuit an inspiration?. Hyongho Park : I decided to pursuit on my inspiration by myself. .Frank Scott: Is your design being produced or used by another company, or do you plan to sell or lease the production rights or do you intent to produce your work yourself?. Hyongho Park : This work is only for my team, not for other companies. .Frank Scott: What made you design this particular type of work?. Hyongho Park : It has very long story but mainly I was interested in safety for human since I was very young and I guess this interest made me design this type of work. .Frank Scott: Who is the target customer for his design?. Hyongho Park : Fire fighters; Real heroes/heroins among us. .Frank Scott: What sets this design apart from other similar or resembling concepts?. Hyongho Park : There was nothing similar with this concept because not many people think items for firefighters. .
Hyongho Park-Savior's Hand Free Firefighter's Hands Images:
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Concrete Anchors & Fasteners is Our Specialty Questions? Contact Mike
The CONFAST® 5/16" Lag
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ApplicationsThe anchor is made from Zamac Alloy. This anchor is designed for use in Concrete, Block, and Brick.
EnvironmentThe anchor is designed for use in a Wet environment.
Hole Diameter/Bit DiameterThe anchor requires a 1/2" hole to be drilled in the base material (Concrete, Block, and Brick). The hole should be drilled with carbide tipped bit that meets ANSI standards and used in a hammer drill.
Designated Size The designated size of the anchor refers to the inside diameter 5/16" of the anchor or the diameter of the threaded rod or bolt that can be inserted into it.
Diameter of Anchor The diameter of the anchor is 5/16".
Length Anchor The length of the anchor is 1-1/4"
Thread Type The threads on the anchor are internal threads that measures 5/16" with 9 threads per inch, commonly referred to as 5/16"-9 .
PackagingThe anchor is packaged with 100 pieces per box .
Minimum EmbedmentThe minimum anchor embedment into the concrete is 1-1/4". Therefore, the anchor must be installed so that a minimum of 1-1/4" of the anchor is embedded into the concrete.
Depth of HoleThe depth of the hole that is required for the anchor should be a minimum of 1/2" deeper than the anchor will penetrate the concrete. This will allow space for dust created during the installation process to fall, which will prevent the anchor from bottoming out in the hole before full penetration into the concrete.
Fixture Hole DiameterThe hole in the fixture or material being fastened must be larger than the designated diameter of the anchor. The 5/16" diameter anchor requires the hole in the fixture to be 5/8".
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Anchor Size
Minimum Embedment
Pull-Out (lbs.)
Shear (lbs.)
5/16" x 1-1/4"
* The figures above indicate average ultimate tension and shear failure values. A safety factor of 4:1 or 25% of ultimate value is generally accepted as a safe working load. Reference should always be made to applicable codes.
* The bits are recommended by diameter and may not necessarily be the length needed for your application. Please make sure the usable length will work for your application. *


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Henri de Toulouse-Lautrec
Henri de Toulouse-Lautrec (äNrē´ də tōōlōōz´ lōtrĕk´), 1864–1901, French painter and lithographer, b. Albi. Son of a wealthy nobleman, Lautrec fell and broke both legs when he was a child. His permanently stunted growth has traditionally been seen as the result of this accident, but more recently doctors have theorized that it may have been the result of a rare genetic abnormality. Showing an early gift for drawing, he studied with Bonnat and Cormon and set up a studio of his own when he was 21. As a youth he was attracted by sporting subjects and admired and was influenced by the work of Degas.
His own work is, above all, graphic in nature, the paint never obscuring the strong, original draftsmanship. He detailed the music halls, circuses, brothels, and cabaret life of Paris with a remarkable objectivity born, perhaps, of his own isolation. His garish and artificial colors, the orange hair and electric green light of his striking posters, caught the atmosphere of the life they advertised. Lautrec's technical innovations in color lithography created a greater freedom and a new immediacy in poster design. His posters of the dancers and personalities at the Moulin Rouge cabaret are world renowned and have inspired countless imitations.
After a life of enormous productivity (more than 1,000 paintings, 5,000 drawings, and 350 prints and posters), debauchery, and alcoholism, Lautrec suffered a mental and physical collapse and died at the age of 37. His life has inspired numerous biographies, of varying accuracy. Although exhibitions of his work were not well received in his lifetime, he is now one of the world's most popular artists and is represented in most of the major museums of France and the United States. Many of his sketches and some paintings are in the Musée Lautrec of his native Albi. His painting At the Moulin de la Galette (1892) is in the Art Institute, Chicago; the lithograph Seated Female Clown (1896) is at the Philadelphia Museum of Art.
See his correspondence, ed. by L. Goldschmidt and H. Schimmel (1969); complete lithographs and drypoints, ed. by J. Adémar (1965) and posters, intr. by E. Julien (1966); biographies by H. Perruchot (1960), P. Huisman (1964, repr. 1968), and J. B. Frey (1994); studies by D. Cooper (1969), F. Novotny (1969), J.-B. Naudin, G. Diego-Dortignac, and A. Daguin (1993), and D. Sweetman (2000).


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Propensity Score Matching with SEM in...
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Structural Equation Modeling
Maria Clara Barata
posted on Monday, September 06, 2010 - 12:36 pm
Is there a good example (reference, chapter, article) of how to use propensity score matching (PSM) or propensity score estimation (PSE) with structural equation modeling in MPLUS?
Thank you so much, Clara
Bengt O. Muthen
posted on Monday, September 06, 2010 - 3:54 pm
I am not aware of that, but I am asking colleagues.
Maria Clara Barata
posted on Tuesday, September 07, 2010 - 8:19 am
Thank you so much!
I look forward to that reference and/or any advice you may have on how to use those two techniques together in Mplus.
Bengt O. Muthen
posted on Tuesday, September 07, 2010 - 8:26 am
Here is an answer from a colleague in the causal inference field:
The short answer is that no, I don�t know of a good reference for propensity scores with SEM.
The longer answer is that I think in part I don�t know of a good reference for this because the goals of the two methods are somewhat different, at least from what I understand about SEM. From my understanding SEM is designed for looking at relationships between a large number of variables (and not necessarily always in a causal way). Propensity scores are designed when you really just have one variable of interest (the �treatment�) and you want to look at the treatment�s effects on some outcome(s), basically treating all of the other variables as nuisance confounders. So the methods don�t necessarily generally fit together very well. As one specific example, there has been very limited work using propensity scores in the context of post-treatment variables and mediation, but that is still basically a very simple type of SEM (if one even wants to think about it in that way at all).
Bengt O. Muthen
posted on Wednesday, September 08, 2010 - 4:44 pm
I should add that there is at least one example of research that uses propensity scores as an explanatory variable in an SEM setting. You can email me if you want me to give you more information on that.
Maria Clara Barata
posted on Tuesday, August 07, 2012 - 9:32 am
Hi! I hadn't noticed this reply. I'll email you immediately. Thanks.
Maria Clara Barata
posted on Wednesday, August 08, 2012 - 3:31 am
Can you send it to me? Your email is not available.
Thanks so much
Emil Coman
posted on Wednesday, August 08, 2012 - 7:06 am
Don't want to boast, but I will: I presented recently this:
Coman E., Yanovitzky I., Coman M., Weeks M. R. (2012). Understanding propensity score matching through a more flexible causal modeling alternative. Mixture and multilevel causal modeling of true effects. 2012 Modern Modeling Methods (M3) Conference.
They have not posted my PPT yet, so I can email it.
Maria Clara Barata
posted on Wednesday, August 08, 2012 - 7:11 am
Thanks so much Emil. Thanks for boasting about it too
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Here is how Monday's debate tracked on Twitter. The peak moment was President Obama's zinger about "bayonets." At 6.5 million Tweets, it was the least-tweeted about debate….which means there are a LOT of Giants fans in the Twitterverse.
For some fact-checking on the Lies, Half-truths and Contradictions told Monday, see our breakdown here.


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Learn more about the Ford F-350: Ford F-350 Reviews, Pricing, Specs and more »
A used Ford F-350 can make a great work truck. The F-350's were designed to run hard for a long time, so finding a used truck won't be a problem if you know what you're looking for.
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I got into a 'debate' with a friend again, and she linked me an article. I'm getting better in the apologetics field, but this article kind of stumped me.
What Jesus Meant When He Said "You Must Eat My Flesh"
By Jon Bloom
The day before, Jesus had fed 5,000 people with a few loaves and fish. Then that night he walked miles across the Sea of Galilee before catching up with his disciples in their boat. The crowd had seen him send his disciples away in the only boat available. So the next day, when they found him in Capernaum, they knew he could have only got there miraculously. They wanted him to be their king.
Then he went and ruined everything. To his adoring fans Jesus said,
Truly, truly, I say to you, you are seeking me not because you saw signs, but because you ate your fill of the loaves. Do not labor for the food that perishes, but for the food that endures to eternal life, which the Son of Man will give to you. For on him God the Father has set his seal (John 6:26-27).
Confused, they asked him how they could work to please God. He replied, "This is the work of God, that you believe in him whom he has sent" (John 6:29). (God isn't looking for workers. He's looking for believers.)
Jesus was a hero to the crowd because he had fed them. But Jesus discerned something very wrong about their enthusiasm. They wanted more "bread from heaven."
But wanting the blessings Jesus provides is not the same thing as believing in him. Indeed, Jesus had come to give them bread from heaven. But not that kind of bread.
So to test them he began to make statements that sounded very strange. He told them that he was the true bread from heaven that gives life to the world and whoever eats this bread would live forever.
Then he said, "And the bread that I will give for the life of the world is my flesh" (v. 51). This sounded like cannibalism. His listeners balked. He pressed it even further:
Truly, truly, I say to you, unless you eat the flesh of the Son of Man and drink his blood, you have no life in you. Whoever feeds on my flesh and drinks my blood has eternal life, and I will raise him up on the last day. For my flesh is true food and my blood is true drink (John 6:53-55).
The "Jesus for King" campaign evaporated. The people walked away shaking their heads. The crazy man wants us to eat his flesh! They completely misunderstood what Jesus was saying.
So what did he mean? Here are the clues:
How do you labor for the food that endures to eternal life? Believe in me! (v. 27, 29)
"I am the bread of life; whoever comes to me [in faith] shall not hunger, and whoever believes in me shall never thirst." (v. 35)
"For this is the will of my Father, that everyone who looks on the Son and believes in him should have eternal life, and I will raise him up on the last day." (v. 40)
"Truly, truly, I say to you, whoever believes has eternal life." (v. 47)
For Jesus eating is believing; drinking is believing. He promises eternal life to those who believe in him. Believe what?
Believe that his death—the breaking of his body and spilling of his blood—pays in full the penalty for our sin and that his perfect righteousness is freely given to us in exchange for our unrighteousness.
Believing this is how we "eat" Jesus' flesh and "drink" his blood. This is why he instituted the Lord's Supper: he did not want us to forget the very core of what we believe.
When the crowd took offense at his gruesome talk, Jesus exposed their unbelief: "The words that I have spoken to you are spirit and life. But there are some of you who do not believe" (vv. 63-64).
Let's you and I be like Peter. He didn't walk away, but instead said to Jesus, "Lord, to whom shall we go? You have the words of eternal life, and we have believed, and have come to know that you are the Holy One of God" (vv. 68-69).
Homework's been stressing me out lately, and my mind's not all there, so if I could get some other people's thoughts on this I would be so thankful
Thank you all, pax Christi


text: It's called the Walden Pt Road and runs 14 miles between the Tsimshean Indian community of Metlakatla to the north end of Annette Island, Alaska's only Indian Reserve. 15yrs in the making and it just got paved last year: http://www.sitnews.us/0307news/033007/033007_road_building.html 14mi long with 75 curves through the hills and mountains along the ocean at the southernmost tip of Alaska's Panhandle. I'm half Tsimshean Indian and have many relatives around there and it's long been one of my favorite places to vacation. Mid 80 degree temperatures, no glaciers so lots of clear blue-green ocean water, sandy beaches, and a lot of very friendly fun-filled friends and relatives. Ocean kayaking was my passion before becoming Ducatisti over a dozen years ago and Southeast Alaska has long been my favorite place to paddle. This year along with a kayak I also took a couple standup paddleboards. The place I stay, my grandma Lucy Rainman's house, is only about 100' from the ocean. Good times. It's a fun but very lengthy and expensive journey to get to Annette from my home in Anchorage. It's a 750mi drive to Haines where I get on a ferry for a day and a half, then a smaller ferry over to the island. Each way! No wonder most Alaskans never make it to Southeast Alaska. It also costs more to fly here than to Seattle, WA even tho it's only 2/3's the distance and on the way! Because it's an area of Alaska that few ever experience I like to share it through my ride reports. Here's what dogbrother Comet and I looked like upon departure from Anchorage. I was pleased all the stuff on top didn't lessen my mileage too much costing me less than a mile per gallon. Okay, so what's all this have to do with motorcycling? Well, I also had my Triumph Daytona 955 onboard ready to run the new road. I'd chosen to take my Triumph because I wanted to ride the new road on a sportbike. The Ketchikan Kruzers were also going to be holding drag races on the old mile long runway on Annette and I thought about maybe making some runs. I ended up not doing any racing but did a speed run just for fun. In the photo below we're on the State Ferry Lituya for the hour and half trip between Ketchikan and Metlakatla. The F-body Camaro had a brand new 502 crate motor in it. Not sure what the Hotrod had. The black car in the foreground was the weekend's fastest with its new 800hp motor. The primer grey Camaro is owned by a State Trooper with whom I corresponded about the races. I told him how I ride motorcycles with Troopers and Anchorage Police up north, some of whom he knew. Alright, enough leading up to the riding of Walden Pt road. Here it is: Many a rider's favorite kind of road sign. I'll have to go back and get a sharper shot of these lovely twisties. And here it is, a little sharper shot of some mighty fine twisties. Annette Is is renowned for it's geologic diversity, including marble. Some geologist friends have called it an amazing area. Oh yeah, a few dotted centerline straight stretches thrown in for good measure. The road south of Ketchikan can be seen across the water and above the road in this shot. Oh, that and one of the many grade % signs. The north end of the road where a ferry terminal will be built. Headed back the other way. Through the Narrows on the right in the distance is the town of Ketchikan, 16mi north of Metlakatla. Coming back up on the big cut near the beginning of the road. Me and my lovely Trumpet. And finally, the end of the road with the AMHS Ferry Lituya moored down below. It's a 15% grade in the road from here to there! And on the far right is Yellow Hill where I ran some other twisties on the Ducati in years past. Here's a link to that ride report from a few years ago with more photos of the area if interested: http://www.advrider.com/forums/showthread.php?t=258739 Having fun in paradise, Mark H. The Wild Halfbreed


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A successful and exciting day on the KPWT Dakhla Kiteboard Pro World Tour 2009!
The morning started with an early skippers meeting and the riders were prepped for the sliders competition.
Dakhla Attitude have built 2 sliders and one high kicker for the new discipline introduced onto the world circuit this year. The race director ran 2 heats and the 2 riders with the highest score progress to the final heat.
The riders tried their best to hit the sliders as fast as possible, with their kites and bars low and rotations after the slide. This is a definite discipline for the spectators and the riders were launching themselves at the sliders and kicker as hard and high as possible! There was not enough time to finish the final as the news arrived that the wave spot was working. The riders prepped their gear and quickly made their way to the beach to continue with the single elimination.
Lets remember the World Class Superstars on the KPWT and competing at the KPWT DAKHLA KITEBOARD PRO 2009):
Abel Lago (SPA, RRD), Mitu Monteiro (CV- F-ONE), Jan Marcos Riveras (DOM REP, STARKITES), Jesse Richman (HAW, CABRINHA) and Cameron Dietrich (HAW, CABRINHA).
For the ladies: Kirsty Jones (UK, FLEXIFOIL), Kari Schibevaag (NOR, OZONE) and Kriss Kinn (US, BEST)
The second round began at 15h00 with 1 meter swells and 15 knots. The waves again ran right to left, with good shape on low tide. A great heat was the semi-final between Abel Lago and Mitu Monteiro who both looked in great shape, selecting good waves, turning smoothly and strong cut backs. Mitu edged himself into the final in a VERY closely contested semi final! Well done to both riders for this enjoyable heat!
The second semi final was between Jan Marcos and Jesse. They have had some great battles this year and this heat definitely didn't disappoint. The sun was setting and provided a beautiful backdrop to this thrilling semi, with Jan Marcos progressing.
Unfortunately there was not enough light to finish the Wave Masters Single Elimination today. Lets hope there are some waves tomorrow and we can continue with the finals for men and women.
This evening Dakhla Attitude will play host to a chill-out party and invited all riders and organizers to enjoy the wonders of Morocco!


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Home > Outdoor Fabric > Warwick Atrium Outdoor Fabric > Mauritius Collection > Warwick Outdoor Furniture Fabric - Mombasa Melon
140cm wide
MOMBASA MELON - Atrium Outdoor fabrics feature excellent ultra violet resistance; anti-microbial, mildew and stain resistance; exceptional durability; easy cleanability with bleach though a less harsh solution is all that's required; and an environmentally-friendly manufacturing process. Price is per metre and minimum order is 1 metre. .


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Egyptian Public Business Sector Minister, Mukhtar Khatab, stated that the Egyptian government has no intention of privatizing either the Suez Canal Authority, universities or railways, reports Al-Ahram newspaper. He maintained that the government would not privatize these sectors due to concern for repercussions of such an act on limited income families in Egypt.
Despite the wide-ranging set of economic reforms being implemented by the Egyptian government, there are no plans afoot to privatize the Suez Canal, said the president of the Suez Canal Authority. Still, work is underway to improving the canal's facilities
Speaking to Gulf News, Ahmad Fadel, the authority's president said that his organization is working on deepening the canal to allow heavier ships to pass through it. The canal, which is 58 feet deep, will be deepened to 62 feet to allow ships carrying more than 200,000 tons to pass.
Revenues from the Suez Canal rose during the July 2000-February 2001 period, from $1.24 billion, during the corresponding period a year earlier, to $1.30 billion, reported the Suez Canal Authority.
Egypt has been experiencing a slowdown in its privatisation program. Of the 314 companies targeted, only 156 have been privatised, bringing total sales to EP 15.417 billion as of the end of 2000. — (MENA Report)
© 2001 Mena Report (www.menareport.com)
© 2000 - 2019 Al Bawaba (www.albawaba.com)


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A charming barn adventure for toddlers and families with vibrant colors and playful animations…
Inside a little bouncing barn, friendly farm animals are waiting to pop out and surprise your little one. Try and guess who they are; tap the doors to find out!
Work with your child to learn the names of animals and hear the sounds they make. Younger children will love opening the barn doors to find a new animal animation, as they learn about cause and effect and become familiar with animal names and sounds. Older children will enjoy guessing animals by sound, then seeing the animal names, which helps develop early literacy skills.
The app includes twelve different language options with purchase as well as a Record Your Own Voice Record feature [iOS only]. We added this option so parents, children, and visiting relatives and friends can capture their own voices and star in Peekaboo Barn. Now you can record the animal names in your native language—or grandma's voice, or grandpa's—and, if you're recording a new language, you can save the appropriate written version too, and both will show up the next time you play. (Please note, we can only support the writing systems that are supported by your device.)
One of the first apps to be released for toddlers, since 2008 Peekaboo Barn has been played over 80 million times worldwide. It has been a top 25 educational game on the iTunes App Store for over seven years, and has been featured by Apple many times. It won The Best Toddler App Ever award in 2009, and was named one of the top 50 iPhone apps for kids by Babble.com in 2010 and 2011. It is recommended by The New York Times, MSNBC, USA Today, Wired, Telegraph UK, Ireland's The Independent, Parents Magazine, and the Washington Post.
Peekaboo Barn was made for you and your toddler by artists and educators, not marketers, robots, or companies repackaging clip art. Our team has backgrounds in cognitive science and child development, and we've worked in educational media everywhere from Sesame Workshop to the Smithsonian Institution. When you could really use a safe distraction—in airports, restaurants, and waiting rooms—or you'd like to try something new with your little genius, Peekaboo Barn is the educational, artful solution. Enjoy!
If you are looking for more Peekaboo Barn, check out our awesome sequels: Peekaboo Fridge, Peekaboo Sesame Street, Peekaboo Forest and more!
For licensing inquiries contact:
peep [at] peekaboobarn.com
One of our Top 50 iPhone Apps for Kids
-- Babble.com
The Peekaboo series from Night and Day Studios has helped to set the standard early for expectations around producing quality applications for young children. I have seen this app used in a wide range of contexts and every toddler I see play with it lights up at the images and sounds.
--Top 12 Apps for Your Family iPad,
Daniel Donahoo, Wired.com
Peekaboo Barn stands out for its high-quality illustrations, clever touches, and clean, thoughtful design.
-- Jason Parker, Cnet.com
A total recommendation, both from my snotty son and me!
-- Esther, Babyccinokids.com
The graphics in this app feel like a really well made children's book. The voice over and animal sounds are high quality as well.
— AppVee.com
I have yet to find many preschool games that are educational and appropriate to offer in a Preschool environment, this one is a WINNER. All the teachers, parents and students LOVE Peek-A-Boo barn!
— Whatsoniphone.com


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Comments (2)
(Photo credit: David G. Curran/ SatelliteNewsService.com)
CHATHAM, Mass. (AP) — Rescue workers say the pilot and a passenger were not hurt when their small plane that was flying over Cape Cod suffered mechanical failure and made an emergency landing into a small lake.
Chatham Fire Capt. Kate Hansen says the plane sunk into Lover's Lake after landing there Saturday afternoon.
Emergency responders checked the pilot and a passenger at the scene and released them.
There was no immediate information on the identities of the pilot and passenger, the origin of their flight and their destination.
Authorities are investigating the incident.
The incident was first reported by the Cape Cod Times.
Copyright 2012 The Associated Press.
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Ryan Seacrest Buys Ellen DeGeneres' Estate
It looks like Ryan Seacrest is moving in with Ellen Degeneres… well, into her old house at least. TMZ reports that the 'American Idol' host and radio personality bought Degeneres' estate, where she resided with wife and actress Portia de Rossi, in Beverly Hills for a cool $39 million.
That's definitely not chump change, even for a media mogul like Seacrest. According to Forbes, Seacrest made around $59 million last year — but the luxurious pad seems to be worth every penny. And in some ways, it was a steal, since Degeneres had listed the pad for $49 million.
The main house, which is roughly 9,200 square feet, sits on nearly three acres of sprawling property that boasts a koi fish pond, an outdoor swimming pool and three other (presumably guest) houses. The house itself is as gorgeous as the landscape, with an extremely large gym (the size of a "large health club," according to TMZ), an outdoor patio, three bedrooms, and windows all around. It's like a tranquil oasis in the middle of the bustling city of Los Angeles.
This posh estate is really making its rounds amongst the stars. Before Degeneres and de Rossi moved in, the house belonged to 'Will and Grace' producer Max Mutchnick. Degeneres and de Rossi bought the surrounding land, but ended up losing money on improving the estate's beauty and vastness.
We wonder if Seacrest is making room for his sweetie Julianne Hough. The two have been hot and heavy since spring 2010, so we wouldn't be surprised! Check out some photos of Seacrest's new home below.


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Twenty-four Lebanese appeared before the Beirut military court Wednesday for trial on charges of collaborating with Israel, court sources in Beirut said.
The verdicts were due to be announced the same evening, they added.
The trials of another 44 were postponed to enable the accused to find a lawyer, or for their cases to be examined in greater detail.
The accused face charges of having joined Israel's proxy South Lebanon Army, (SLA), of "making contact with the Israeli enemy" or entering Israel.
Three of them are also accused of having "passed on information to the enemy," court sources said.
The accused are among 1,700 people, many of them former SLA members, who handed themselves over to the authorities after Israel withdrew its forces on May 24th after 22 years of occupation of southern Lebanon.
The military court is holding group trials three times a week.
They started Monday, when the court imposed jail sentences of up to five years on 100 detainees. Most received lesser terms of between 12 and 18 months.
Four minors who had been recruited by the SLA were referred to a juvenile court.
The trials have aroused controversy in Lebanon, with opinions divided between those who, like the Hizbullah movement, which spearheaded the anti-Israeli resistance, are demanding stiffer penalties, and others, like the Maronite Cardinal Nasrallah Sfeir, the spiritual head of the largest Christian community in Lebanon, are calling for mercy.
The leader of the National Liberal Party, Dory Chamoun, has even called for a general amnesty for SLA members, under threat of demanding that the files of all those amnestied at the end of Lebanon's 1975-80 civil war be reopened - BEIRUT (AFP)
© 2000 Al Bawaba (www.albawaba.com)


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What rustles your jimmies?
|AnimeGalleries [dot] Net
|AnimeWallpapers [dot] Com
|AnimeLyrics [dot] Com
|AnimePedia [dot] Com
|AnimeGlobe [dot] Com
What rustles your jimmies?
Hey look, Japan made a movie about me!
People that don't like VOCALOID.
人類は調和したのか?VY2V3 = Me | Kagamine Len Act 1 = You
That meme does.
My sister telling me she bought a BRAND NEW car, then 1/2 hour later crying cos she's broke and stressed about money...
No words could describe how much mine were badly rustled. :o(
Last edited by nrL; 12-24-2012 at 09:06 PM.
Cold weather.
I really rustle in me jimmies cuz it's so cold.
This damn itch!!!!!!
Check out my YouTube Channel and give me some feedback!
Also come join my RP, Discordia, and let your music grant you power.
significant others who don't know my brand preference. If I ask for salt and vinegar chips, I want the damn Lays brand!
Screaming children at theme parks, seriously.
People who are richer than me.
females who are completely inconsistent, and think it's okay to take their bad moods out on everybody else.
Being so sick I have to go to the hospital even though I don't have health insurance.
Siblings who date complete jerks -_-
Anyways, sibling-boyfriend-hating aside, the thing that flusters my florffle the most are people whom say things without learning anything about it, easiest example I can think of off the top of my head are people who oppose all nuclear power on the basis of nuclear weaponry; a group of people I keep filed in my mental filing cabinet in the same place as terrorist groups such as Al Qaeda and Greenpeace...and the anti-nukers might deserve less quarter than those guys anyways....
for the record...we aren't exactly dating anymore.
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