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Wednesday, October 5, 2011
Final Ontario Projection: McGuinty's Liberals win majority
The projection has changed since the last update, as Angus-Reid and Forum Research released some new data. They made it a consensus - the Liberals lead in every final poll of the campaign, but the size of that lead stands at anywhere from one point to as much as 10. Either way, the Liberals should be re-elected with a majority. Even Forum's numbers point to a slim two-seat majority for them.
UPDATE: EKOS ruined my night by posting their final numbers a little before 11 PM. I've updated everything (again) with these new numbers, but it changes little.
Before the successful projection of the Manitoba election, the volatility and uncertainty indicated by the polls would have left me ill at ease going into the Ontario vote. I don't know how the polls will perform tomorrow, but I am confident that if the polls do well the projection model should also do well. Of course, the 2011 Ontario might be one of those enigmatic elections, like the one in 1990 that left everyone surprised.
The Liberals are projected to win 58 seats, with 29 being won by the Tories and 20 by the New Democrats.
The New Democrats win seven seats in northern Ontario, six in Toronto, four in the Hamilton/Niagara region, and one each in Ottawa, Greater Toronto, and southwestern Ontario.
When the campaign began, there were about 30 races which were projected to be 'close'. That has dropped to about a dozen.
The Liberals lead in seven close races and trail in four, putting their likely seat range at between 51 and 62 seats. In other words, the possibility for a Liberal minority still exists.
The Progressive Conservatives lead in four close races and trail in six, putting their likely seat range at between 25 and 35 seats.
The New Democrats are leading in one close race and trailing in two, putting their likely seat range at between 19 and 22 seats. Note that the NDP won 10 seats in the 2007 election.
A lot of polls were released in this campaign. Twelve were taken in the five first days of October alone. In the 26 polls released since September 1, the gap between the Tories and the Liberals has been three points or less in 12. It has been an amazingly close race, and only in the final week has it really become clearer who is ahead.
Generally speaking, though, the campaign has moved very little. The New Democrats have been steady at around 23% to 26% since Day 1. The Greens have faltered, though, dropping to about 3% or 4% about the same time as the leaders' debate took place. One wonders if the presence of Mike Schreiner in the debate would have changed anything.
As with the PEI and Manitoba elections, though in neither case did the same kind of error repeat itself, let's take a look at some other possible scenarios if the polls are inaccurate in the same ways as they were in the 2007 provincial and 2011 federal elections.
If the polls are wrong in the same way as they were at the national federal level in the May election, the Liberals would win the bare minimum of a majority government.
But what if the polls repeat the same error that happened in the federal election in Ontario? Here, the Conservative vote was greatly underestimated. However, the Liberal vote was about right. So what we have in that situation is the Liberals and Tories tied at a little more than 36% and the NDP below 23%. This results, again, in a Liberal majority. Indeed, the Liberals are the beneficiary of a greater drop in NDP support.
The PEI and Manitoba projection each had very different levels of accuracy. As I called 98.2% of races correctly in Manitoba, that gives the Ontario projection a two seat window - in other words, 56-60 seats for the Liberals, 27-31 seats for the Progressive Conservatives, and 18-22 seats for the New Democrats (and 0 to 2 seats for the Greens, if you wish). But with the 85.2% accuracy rating of PEI, that extends the margin to 16 seats, or 42-74 seats for the Liberals, 13-45 seats for the Tories, and 4-36 seats for the New Democrats. That seems to be a margin too wide to be worth anything, but if the Greens win 16 seats you'll have heard it here first.
More so than probably any other province, Ontario has a great degree of political regionalization. Unfortunately, the model was unable to take that into account due to the lack of uniformity in how the pollsters break down their polls. This could be a problem when the votes are counted, but I don't think it will be. If the polls have this one right, and even if they are off by a little, Ontario will elect a slim Liberal majority government on Thursday night. But if this campaign has taught us anything, it is to expect nothing.
31 comments:
- Anonymous05 October, 2011 23:29
Thank you Eric for your great work! You have been very busy the last couple of weeks, but note your efforts have been greatly appreciated!ReplyDelete
Thank you!
- Andrew Drummond06 October, 2011 06:54
I also agree this is fantastic work. Though for greater accuracy, you should consider some application of the effect of retiring MPPs.ReplyDelete
In particular, from other sites, it seems like Kenora-Rainy River is a close fight because of Hampton's retirement. There needs to be a way for the model to reflect this phenomenon. (Welland will also be an example of this)
Retiring incumbents are factored into the model, they lose a little more than 10% of their support compared to where the swing would expect them to be.ReplyDelete
- Robert06 October, 2011 09:21
Eric another NFLD poll is out.ReplyDelete
And it looks like one of the Anonymous group and myself have been right since day one?ReplyDelete
All I would like to see is the seat numbers for the NDP and PC's reversed. After this campaign it's definitely time to replace the PC leader.
Gee it seems that happened the last election to ??
Thanks. The next Newfoundland update may have to wait until Monday, however, due to scheduling issues.
- John_Northey06 October, 2011 10:08
Since the 1920's in Ontario the lowest a party has been in popular vote and still won a minority is 35.7% by the Conservatives in 1943. For a majority it is the 1990 NDP at 37.6%.ReplyDelete
FYI: 1919 was an oddity with a party getting a minority with just 21.7% of the vote (United Farmers) while the party with the highest vote % (Conservative at 34.9%) came in 3rd for seats. The UF joined with another party that had just over 11% to have a majority of seats despite the two having fewer votes than the Conservatives. Hmm...wonder if a 'Landowners Party' could do the same today, ruling rural Ontario while the NDP/Liberals/PC's split the urban zones - much like the Bloc did in Quebec. It'd be interesting to see.
When you have three competitive parties (or, perhaps more accurately, three uncompetitive parties) this sort of thing is going to happen.ReplyDelete
Yeah, the closer we get to 33.3% for a winner the more it is just a random draw, suggesting there is nothing making people choose one over the other. That is, unless the Greens suddenly climb up to 10%+ in which case 30% or less could start winning elections much like in 1919 where 4 parties had 11%+ plus 4 others won seats, and the 2 (of the big 4) with the lowest vote totals of the 4 were able to gain majority power working together.ReplyDelete
Funny - if a few parties decided to start running in just small areas of the province (say, Northern Party, Eastern, South-West, and Toronto ones) then we could see a royal mess thanks to a system that rewards regional strength over general strength.
With the polls all in, I just wanted to endorse EKOS' new practice of explicitly distinguishing in its headline numbers party support amongst 'eligible voters' from support amongst 'likely voters'. While I know most pollsters make adjustments for likelihood of voting, it is not my impression that most are explicit about the difference it makes. And the more that public opinion continues to diverge from voter opinion, the more difference that difference is going to make!ReplyDelete
- Anonymous06 October, 2011 14:37
Guaranteed that a significant amount of the error in your final projections can be attributed to the "undecided" vote.
There's an implicit assumption in your model that the undecideds will split in proportion to the decided vote.
In reality, the undecided vote is most likely to lean towards what they see as the "least of the evils".
That's vague and hard to quantify, but in the federal election it was probably the Conservatives who benefited. Was it because the Conservatives are the incumbents? Or was it because right-leaning Liberals were trying to stop an orange wave?
In the provincial election, I'm predicting that the undecided vote breaks towards McGuinty as the "least of the evils". He has the advantage of incumbency, and the dynamics make Hudak into a bigger risk. But who knows. Maybe the undecideds will break against McGuinty as a "change" election. Maybe they'll even go NDP
The undecideds are the main source of volatility. If you had data about the undecideds and leaners, you'd probably be able to reduce the last couple percentage points in your Margin of Error.
- Anonymous06 October, 2011 15:00
@John_Northey, I don't know how likely the possibility of a province-wide three-way race really is. Even local "three-way races" are usually oversold and represent a temporary quirk of weak party with strong candidate or vice versa. I have a hard time believing that the ONDP would be into the numbers it is now if Jack Layton hadn't died-- it's a bit of a fluke.ReplyDelete
Regarding the overselling of three-way races, note the CBC's story regarding a "three way race" in Ottawa Centre, based on the allegedly strong showing of a Conservative candidate in the federal election. Ottawa Centre was an absolute steamroller victory for Paul Dewar, who got over 52 per cent. The Conservative candidate did finish second... but with under 22 per cent, and he actually lost almost 2 per cent relative to 2008.
As well, as the Conservatives will probably find out tonight, and as the Manitoba Conservatives can tell you, regional strength isn't all it's cracked up to be--after a certain point it's just wasted votes.
- Anonymous06 October, 2011 17:10
I think it won't be a stretch to say that the final Liberal and PC numbers will be higher than the final NDP and Green numbers. I suspect NDP numbers may be around the 22-23% range while the Green support may drop to 3%.ReplyDelete
What a bland campaign. I forgot what issues were discussed again. There was too much negativity from Tim Hudak, that it left the entire campaign sour. I guess the "Tax Man" will be winning a third straight majority.
I wonder what direction the Ontario PC party will head now. Will Tim Hudak stick even around for another campaign? The party's last two elected premiers Bill Davis and Mike Harris are from different ideological camps. But most party members seem more comfortable with the latter and that makes it unlikely that someone like Christine Elliot will become leader. Then there is the big elephant in the room, Randy Hillier...
- Maple
If Randy Hillier becomes PC leader, they can kiss any chance of government goodbye. He is far too nakedly ideological. As both Bill Davis and Dalton McGuinty have proven (and as Bill Davis said) about Ontario politics, bland works. Bland isn't exciting, but it is, at least in Ontario, effective.ReplyDelete
- hosertohoosier06 October, 2011 18:22
It strikes me as implausible that the PC's will only win 2 seats in the GTA (ie. the suburbs, not in Toronto itself), given that every poll I've seen has them ahead there, and in some cases by a fair margin. I suspect this will be the main source of discrepancy between your prediction, and the actual results.ReplyDelete
Liberals - 61ReplyDelete
@hosertohoosier - a lot of those polls include a far larger area as the "GTA" than Eric does. Abacus' region stretches all the way to Hamilton and Barrie for example.ReplyDelete
"Guaranteed that a significant amount of the error in your final projections can be attributed to the "undecided" vote. There's an implicit assumption in your model that the undecideds will split in proportion to the decided vote. In reality, the undecided vote is most likely to lean towards what they see as the "least of the evils".ReplyDelete
I have to disagree here. I think that the 10% of people who say they are still undecided the day before the election are almost all NON-VOTERS. In reality about 45% of the eligible population will not vote. The undecideds will not vote.
- Anonymous06 October, 2011 22:44
Looks like you've underestimated the Conservatives for the 4th time and overestimated the NDP.ReplyDelete
- Anonymous06 October, 2011 22:55
Eric - there seems to be a lot of growth in advance polls over the last few years - how do you think they are impacting poll results - are people voting before late swings in opinion? If I was called after I voted early, but I had changed my mind, I'm not sure how I'd respond to the pollster. Or are early voters less likely to change their mind? Do you think it's impacting your projections?ReplyDelete
Anonymous 22:44,ReplyDelete
Yes, the polls have under-estimated Conservative support again. I think I need to develop a system for predicting how the vote will be different from the polls.
I'm guessing not being able to properly put regional numbers into your model accounts for a lot of the error? Quick glance looks like the South-West is the only place where your numbers were really off.ReplyDelete
Just a question; Since there are fixed election dates in Ontario, what occurs if the governing minority party can't win over enough support to pass their budget? Essentially is it possible for there to be an election outside the fixed date if the governing minority party can't get enough votes in a vote of non-confidence such as the budget?ReplyDelete
Yes, that was a problem. I think I will need to work on a regional model for Ontario.
The fixed election dates only apply in a majority government. If the Liberals don't pass a budget and neither Hudak nor Horwath can form a government, we'd be back to an election.
- Simon V.06 October, 2011 23:38
What I find remarkable is how close the results are to your prediction adjusted for the 2007 polling error.ReplyDelete
As of now, it's:
Liberals - 37,5% vs 37,4% (adjusted prediction)
Conservatives - 35,0% vs 34,8%
NDP - 23,2% vs 23,0%
Those are extremely close results. Nonetheless, the Conservatives seem to have gained votes in the right place, electing around 37 MLA vs your prediction of 30 for the adjusted results.
well looks like forum research was the closest at the end of the campaign. interesting 1 point over/under lib/green and 2 point over/under for ndp/PC in your projection. very interesting that you under-estimated Lib support but they got 8 less than your projection. did the 2 point PC improvement really make that big a difference in your projection? I look forward to seeing how your model would perform with the actual vote %s.ReplyDelete
- Anonymous07 October, 2011 01:43
After three elections within a twelve month time frame, hope Ontario can be election free till 2014!ReplyDelete
Will be looking forward to the federal NDP and Liberal leadership races though.
- Maple
So, who is the early bet to get a cabinet seat by flipping from PC/NDP to Liberal? :)ReplyDelete
over/under on an NDP floor crossing happening within 2 weeks?ReplyDelete
- Anonymous07 October, 2011 11:11
@Bryan, good question. However, I wouldn't be surprised if one of the few urban Conservatives (coughPeterShurmancough) went first, because the post-Hudak leadership campaign is probably going to drag the party to the wacky rural right.ReplyDelete
And the right floor-crosser (coughPeterShurmancough)is gonna get to retire as a cabinet minister...
Also, can we stop talking about the Greens like they're a real party now?
"Also, can we stop talking about the Greens like they're a real party now?"ReplyDelete
And not a moment too soon either. As a political party/force they NEVER have existed in anything but the media.
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It all seems so unbelievable. How could a big-time college football player such as Manti Te'o have a girlfriend he's never actually met?
Yet experts say what the star Notre Dame linebacker says happened to him happens much more often than people care to admit.
Psychologist Robert Epstein says it's a mistake of human nature known as "confirmation bias." We ignore good advice and miss red flags, so we can continue believing in something we want to be true.
It's a mistake made by people online since mingling began in Internet chat rooms more than 20 years ago.
And while Twitter and Facebook have made such casual contact online easier, they also have allowed impostors to create intricate personas that make it that much easier to delude ourselves.

subset: commoncrawl


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September 2 – November 20, 2011
On view for the first time in the United States, El Muro is a series of ten photographic triptychs by Cuban artist Eduardo Hernández Santos (born 1966). In 2005 Santos discovered that a block of the Malecón, the five-mile sea wall extending from Old to Central Havana, had been claimed as a place where gay and transgendered Cubans congregated on a nightly basis. He photographed at El Muro (the wall) over the next year, engaging in discussions with his subjects, many of whom had no other public social outlet to express this aspect of their identities.
In the words of the artist, this project strives to represent "the inner essence of a people who struggle to define and defend their right to be themselves, to have a space of their own." "These photos are my tribute to these people, to their courage."
Each triptych includes two images of the wall itself flanking a portrait of people at El Muro. On each left-hand image, the artist has spelled out fragments from the "La isla en peso (The Island Burden)" a poem written in 1943 by Virgilio Piñera, a gay Cuban writer (1912-1979). In passionate, poignant and scathing language, the poem charts what Piñera saw as the often repressive, violent, and insular nature of Cuban culture.
SCMA is the first museum to acquire El Muro for its permanent collection. The work was purchased with the Dorius/Spofford Fund, established by Smith College in 2002 to support programs dealing with issues of citizenship, censorship, creativity, and contemporary political and social repression associated with sexual identity and expression. The installation of El Muro at the Museum is supported by the Suzannah J. Fabing Programs Fund for SCMA.
Image credit: Eduardo Hernández Santos. Cuban, born 1966. El Muro (The Wall), 2005 (printed 2008) [detail]. Gelatin silver prints with applied lettraset. Purchased with funds from the Dorius-Spofford Fund for the Study of Civil Liberties and Freedom of Expression. ©2011 Eduardo Hernández Santos.


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Talk:Cub Scout Skateboarding
From MeritBadgeDotOrg
Sports pin requirement 1
Sports Pin requirement #1 - There's a spelling error. "'Figure out your stance.' —Preceding unsigned comment added by Johnknotwell (talk • contribs) May 1, 2010. (Please, sign and date your posts on talk pages.)
- Fixed. Thank you for noting it here. —RWSmith (Bureaucrat), 19:04, May 1, 2010 (EDT)
Minor edit of requirements
In order to be awarded Skateboard Pin, completion of 5 requirements is necessary, NOT 6. Ref: Skateboarding —BigJosh 20:38, August 11, 2010 (EDT)
- Fixed. Thank you for noting it here. —RWSmith (Bureaucrat), 20:46, August 11, 2010 (EDT)
Something to consider
I'm 19 years old, never been a scout, but I've been skateboarding for 6 years now,and teaching kids anywhere from 5-17 how to skate for about 4 years now; and if you don't mind, I'd like to give you some minor adjustments of the requirements to consider, and some tips I would like leaders to consider when teaching these kids.
When I was reading through this article the first time I thought it was cool how the scouts included a sport that isn't in schools, and there are few places to legally practice. The first thing I noticed was that figuring out stance isn't in the belt loop requirements, practicing for 30 minutes is; this makes no sense, as the tricks for the sports pin all require you to roll regular or nollie (which would be rolling the same direction after on figures out their stance). In this case the natural place for finding your stance would be right after safety rules. Ways i use to find stance: have the scout sprint and then jump as high as they can, the foot that leaves the ground first is the lead foot have a scout walk up stairs, the foot he puts on the first step is his lead foot have a scout close his eyes, and shove him just enough to knock him off balance, and the foot he puts out to catch himself is his lead foot (these methods are not 100% gaurenteed, sometimes the kid just isn't comfortable with his dominant foot up front)
I think the difference between frontside and backside should be taught at this stage!!!!! IMPORTANTE!!!! You have frontside as a trick but frontside on it's own means NADA nowadays, it is simply rotating toes-outward. It is part of a lot of tricks, but cannot stand alone.
I also think braking should be taught before pushing, for obvious safety reasons; ergo braking should be in the belt loop too. Braking methods: hang back toe off side of board, tilt down, drag get off board, pick up (doesn't work downhill) Slide the sole of your shoe over the pavement, but keep weight on the foot on the board (the faster you are going, the lighter you want to make the slide) take front foot off, plant, bend down and pick up (i like to call this the boneless stop, never try at speed hang back heel off the back of the board, lean back on it, and drag (you MUST hang your heel, or you're just getting razortail faster)
The sports pin is pretty conprehensive, but I feel it lacks some basic understanding. There are two glaring errors in requirement #10 for the skateboarding pin, firstly, every trick has at least three parts:Board rotation, human rotation, and the core trick, allow me to elaborate, a twisted flip is a b/s 180 popshuvit kickflip, f/s body varial. The board's rotation was backside, human rotation was the opposite, and the core trick was a varial. The problem I run into with this pin is that scouts are required to choose 3:ollie, nollie, frontside, grab, kickturn, carving; the only CORE tricks (or tricks you could tell any skater to do, and they would all look pretty similar) in there are ollie and nollie (maybe the grab, but nowadays grabs don't count off flat ground). The issue comes when you say frontside, ollie and grab are three separate tricks, when there are dozens of tricks that fit all three of those criteria. Base trick:ollie rotation: f/s 180,360,540 grab: judo, melon, indy, roast beef, coffin, nosegrab, tailgrab, bennihanna, judo, madonna, double grab, stalefish etc..... I think you get the point. I could walk in there do one trick, and you would count it as three. But I found a deeper problem with assigning this particular list to every scout. It cramps their style, by saying these are the only tricks that count you're devaluing, every backside trick, anything fakie or switch. You're cutting out more than half of all of the basic tricks like this. My version of requirement 10 would look like this: perfom any grab, perform one backside and one frontside trick, and perform one trick switch and one regular, or just hit a quarter pipe, and hit one street element: box, rail, any number of stairs over 1 and land it.
That way the scouts themselves can develop their own styles unrestricted ,individually as skaters, and better themselves in their own unique way. If you are going to keep #10 the way it is, at least add fakie and switch ollies, and backside, to make it fair for those who might not be as good at nollies ollies and frontside spins
let me know if any of this helped or if you would like some clarification.


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Strength Training Racks & Machines
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amazing facts
"Duff" is the decaying organic matter found on a forest floor.
"Fickleheaded" and "fiddledeedee" are the longest words consisting only of letters in the first half of the alphabet.
"Asthma" and "isthmi" are the only six-letter words that begin and end with a vowel and have no other vowels between.
"Fortnight" is a contraction of "fourteen nights." In the US "two weeks" is more commonly used.
"Forty" is the only number which has its letters in alphabetical order. "One" is the only number with its letters in reverse alphabetical order.
"Four" is the only number whose number of letters in the name equals the number.
"Hang on Sloopy" is the official rock song of Ohio.
"Happy Birthday" was the first song to be performed in outer space, sung by the Apollo IX astronauts on March 8, 1969.
"Kemo Sabe", meaning an all knowing one, is actually a mispronunciation by Native American of the Spanish phrase, Quien lo Sabe, meaning one who knows."
The lunula is the half-moon shaped pale area at the bottom of finger nails.
"Ma is as selfless as I am" can be read the same way backwards. If you take away all the spaces you can see that all the letters can be spelled out both ways.
"Mad About You" star Paul Reiser plays the piano on the show's theme song.
"One thousand" contains the letter A, but none of the words from one to nine hundred ninety-nine has an A.
"Ough" can be pronounced in eight different ways. The following sentence contains them all: "A rough-coated, dough-faced ploughman strode through the streets of Scarborough, coughing and hiccoughing thoughtfully.
"Rhythms" is the longest English word without the normal vowels, a, e, i, o, or u.
"Second string," meaning "replacement or backup," comes from the middle ages. An archer always carried a second string in case the one on his bow broke.
"Speak of the Devil" is short for "Speak of the Devil and he shall come". It was believed that if you spoke about the Devil it would attract his attention. That's why when you're talking about someone and they show up people say "Speak of the Devil."
"Stewardesses" is the longest word that can be typed with only the left hand.
"Tautonyms" are scientific names for which the genus and species are the same.
"Taxi" is spelled exactly the same in English, French, German, Swedish, Portuguese, and Dutch.
"Teh" means "cool" in Thai. (Pronounced "tay").
"The sixth sick sheik's sixth sheep's sick" is said to be the toughest tongue twister in English.
"THEREIN" is a seven-letter word that contains thirteen words spelled using consecutive letters: the, he, her, er, here, I, there, ere, rein, re, in, therein, and herein.
"Underground" is the only word in the English language that begins and ends with the letters "und." $203,000,000 is spent on barbed wire each year in the U.S.
1 and 2 are the only numbers where they are values of the numbers of the factors they have.
1 in 5,000 north Atlantic lobsters are born bright blue.


text:
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[14 Posts]
Joined: 31 May 2007
Posts: 6
Posted: Sat 02 Jun 2007, 21:11
Post subject:
ES-1869f MIDI problem
Subject description: can´t play MIDI
Hello, I´m from Argentina and I´m new to Linux. Puppy Linux is the second distro I´ve tried, after testing Xubuntu.This last one turned out to be really slow on my Compaq Presario 5153: AMD K6-2 350 mhz, 96 mb ram. Puppy linux 2.14 instead, is very fast and I´m pretty amazed on its performance, I can even see mpeg 4 videos! The problem seems to be the sound card(ES 1869f). I´ve done a full hd install of puppy Linux 2.14 and everything seemed fine except the sound, it wouldn´t work.So I ran alsaconfig and chose ES18xx (in Legacy sound card list)to be installed and after a while I finally got sound. The main problem is that MIDI doesn´t work. Alsa recognised my MIDI device as OPL3-fm synth, but to windows I have a MPU-401 synth. Could someone please help me?, I´m stuck in this one and I need to run some MIDI applications under Wine (guitar pro, band in a box).
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Joined: 29 Mar 2006
Posts: 6595
Location: Valåmoen, Norway
Posted: Sun 03 Jun 2007, 04:45
Post subject:
Midi hardware has very limited support in Linux. Instead, softsynths does the midi job. Your problem is that softsynths use much RAM and CPU, but there are some tiny ones. AMsynth is good for its size
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Official Crustacean
Joined: 04 May 2005
Posts: 15520
Location: Paradox Realm
Posted: Sun 03 Jun 2007, 05:12
Post subject:
Go to the package manager under setup (menu)
and install midi support
Frequently Asked Questions
BusterPup CE ... testing ...
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Joined: 26 Feb 2007
Posts: 3367
Location: The Blue Marble
Posted: Sun 03 Jun 2007, 05:44
Post subject:
Step 1.
Open /etc/modprobe.conf (use geany).
Step 2.
Look for those lines generated by alsaconf. They are normally near the end of the file.
You should see something like this:
# --- ALSACONF version xxxx ---
alias snd-card-0 snd-es18xx
alias sound-slot-0 snd-es18xx
# --- END: Generated by ALSACONF, do not edit. ---
Step 3.
Add this line at the end of the alias, before the comment, so that it look like this:
# --- ALSACONF version xxxx ---
alias snd-card-0 snd-es18xx
alias sound-slot-0 snd-es18xx
option snd-es18xx mpu_port=0x330
# --- END: Generated by ALSACONF, do not edit. ---
Then save the file, and reboot.
Step 4.
See if MIDI is working. If not, please follow through.
The line added in step 3 tells ALSA that your es-18xx card is connected to an MPU port at address 0x330. Now how can I know that the address is at 0x330 and not elsewhere? I can't
Just that it is the default setup for many motherboards, so that's why I suggest you to start with that address.
The proper way to know the address is to boot into your BIOS setup, under "Advanced Settings" or "Peripherals" or something like that, and see what is the port specified under MPU port there.
If you find it - use the figures in that BIOS setup. Otherwise you can try 0x300, 0x310, 0x320 and 0x330 - and see which one works for you (reboot each time you make the change).
Step 5.
Working? That's great.
Cannot find the settings in the BIOS setup, and the values given above doesn't help?
You have one last try - to figure out the port number from Windoze. Boot to Windoze, open the device manager, figure out your soundcard device, and see the resources used - especially the ports. I don't have specific directions here, different cards differ, and I don't have ES-18xx card to figure out: you've got to figure out which one.
Note: using the wrong port could make Puppy fail to boot, though, so beware and take appropriate precaution (e.g. backing up your pup_save file) before making the change.
Hope that helps.
For further reference, please see:
Fatdog64, Slacko and Puppeee user. Puppy user since 2.13.
Contributed Fatdog64 packages thread
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Joined: 26 Feb 2007
Posts: 3367
Location: The Blue Marble
Posted: Sun 03 Jun 2007, 05:48
Post subject:
Note: the above helped me to get MIDI working on my old motherboard (K7T) with an onboard sound (snd-via82xx). I could send/receive MIDI data from native MIDI applications (e.g. Rosegarden, etc).
HOWEVER - I just notice - you want to use Wine. I am not sure - even if you can get MIDI working under Puppy - whether it will automagically work under Wine.
Fatdog64, Slacko and Puppeee user. Puppy user since 2.13.
Contributed Fatdog64 packages thread
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Joined: 31 May 2007
Posts: 6
Posted: Sun 03 Jun 2007, 15:29
Post subject:
Thanks for the fast reply.
jamesbond, this is what I see in /etc/modprobe.conf
# --- BEGIN: Generated by ALSACONF, do not edit. ---
# --- ALSACONF verion 1.0.8 ---
alias snd-card-0 snd-es18xx
alias sound-slot-0 snd-es18xx
options snd-es18xx isapnp=0 dma1=1 dma2=0 irq=5
# --- END: Generated by ALSACONF, do not edit. ---
Once I add the line as you told me, should it be something like this?:
# --- BEGIN: Generated by ALSACONF, do not edit. ---
# --- ALSACONF verion 1.0.8 ---
alias snd-card-0 snd-es18xx
alias sound-slot-0 snd-es18xx
options snd-es18xx isapnp=0 dma1=1 dma2=0 irq=5 mpu_port=0x330
# --- END: Generated by ALSACONF, do not edit. ---
I´ve looked in windows and the port should be 330 or 388
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Puppy Master
Joined: 04 May 2005
Posts: 4078
Posted: Sun 03 Jun 2007, 16:43
Post subject:
are there any ports listed if you type:
aplaymidi -l
if there are any ports listed, does a midi file play if you type something like:
aplaymidi -p 17:0 fugue-c-major.mid
(use a midi port from the list)
if it seems to play, but there is no sound, and the port is a WaveTable port, you might need to load a soundfont in memory first using sfxload (not included with Puppy)
this may not apply to your sound card, but it might help someone else reading this thread
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Joined: 24 Aug 2005
Posts: 13647
Location: Karlsruhe, Germany
Posted: Sun 03 Jun 2007, 18:45
Post subject:
just in case you do not get the internal midi-chip working, install "timidity" with pupget.
It is a midi driver and player with software synthesizers.
So the midi-instruments are loaded from your harddisk. Some programs allow to use timidity as midi output device.
The libSDL library (a library for gaming) supports timidity.
If you install my dotpups http://dotpups.de/dotpups/Games/LibSDL1.2-forDoom.pup and http://dotpups.de/dotpups/Games/LibSDL1.2-MIDI-forDoom.pup , then many games with midi support (like Doom) have nice midi-sound.
I think this dotpup installs the instruments to a different folder than the timidity-Pupget.
So if you want to use both, you could save diskspace by creating a symlink pointing to the other folder.
To run the timidity player from Pupget with a grafical interface, I think you must type:
timidity -i -g
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Joined: 26 Feb 2007
Posts: 3367
Location: The Blue Marble
Posted: Sun 03 Jun 2007, 20:53
Post subject:
Yes, the changes you made is correct.
As for the port, I think 0x330 is the correct one. 0x388 should be for the FM synth (that's the default Adlib FM synth port).
After reboot, please see the content of /dev/sndstat
#cat /proc/asound/oss/sndstat
You should see something like this (this is taken from Puppy running under qemu)
Sound Driver:3.8.1a-980706 (ALSA v1.0.12rc1 emulation code)
Kernel: Linux puppypc 18.104.22.168 #1 Thu Feb 1 23:05:39 PUP 2007 i686
Config options: 0
Installed drivers:
Type 10: ALSA emulation
Card config:
Ensoniq AudioPCI ENS1370 at 0xc200, irq 9
Audio devices:
Synth devices: NOT ENABLED IN CONFIG
Midi devices:
7: system timer
0: Asahi Kasei AK4531
Especially note the "Midi devices" above. If you see "NOT ENABLED IN CONFIG", that means somehow the your es-18xx ALSA driver can't detect your MPU-401 port and you still have to tweak with your mpu_port parameter.
Otherwise, you can continue with GuesToo's test (aplaymidi et al) - it should work. I don't have experience with wavetable cards tough - never owned one
And if you want to make your laptop works as a synth, you can follow MU's suggestion as well
Fatdog64, Slacko and Puppeee user. Puppy user since 2.13.
Contributed Fatdog64 packages thread
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Joined: 10 Jun 2005
Posts: 5472
Location: Australia
Posted: Sun 03 Jun 2007, 21:23
Post subject:
I have the same audio chip in my Sony VAIO laptop.
To get your hardware fm synth working GuestToo is almost correct, except that the suitable soundfont loader for ESS is "sbiload" not "sfxload".
I have attached an sbiload package, which includes 2 basic soundfonts.
You need one extra module parameter in your /etc/modprobe.conf - "fm_port="
In my case the value is 0x388. You may need to check yours.
I think that "mpu_port=" is only for softsynths. So -
alias snd-card-0 snd-es18xx
alias sound-slot-0 snd-es18xx
options snd-es18xx isapnp=0 dma1=1 dma2=0 irq=5 fm_port=0x388 mpu_port=0x330
EDIT: Feb 2 2008
Load the snd-seq-midi module -
modprobe snd-seq-midi
"aplaymidi -l" will list available ports. Let's say yours is 17:0
Now we can load the soundfonts -
sbiload -p 17:0 -4 /usr/share/audio/opl3/drums.o3 /usr/share/audio/opl3/std.o3
Add that command to /etc/rc.d/rc.local so it is run at every boot.
Now play a midi file like this -
aplaymidi -p 17:0 /mymidifile.mid
1166 Time(s)
Last edited by tempestuous on Sat 02 Feb 2008, 08:04; edited 1 time in total
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Joined: 31 May 2007
Posts: 6
Posted: Mon 04 Jun 2007, 09:33
Post subject:
Hello again, this is what I´ve tried so far:
adding only mpu_port 0x330 to etc/modprobe options, no luck.
adding fm_port=0x388 mpu_port=0x330, again no luck but if I type
aplaymidi -l
it shows me 2 available midi ports:
sh-3.00# aplaymidi --list
Port Client name Port name
16:0 ESS AudioDrive ES1869 ESS AudioDrive ES1869 MIDI
17:0 OPL3 FM synth OPL3 FM Port
Next step, load soundfont with sfxload, It showed:
no awesynth found
For Jamesbond, contents of :
Sound Driver:3.8.1a-980706 (ALSA v1.0.12rc1 emulation code)
Kernel: Linux puppypc 126.96.36.199 #1 Thu Feb 1 23:05:39 PUP 2007 i586
Config options: 0
Installed drivers:
Type 10: ALSA emulation
Card config:
ESS AudioDrive ES1869 at 0x220, irq 5, dma1 1, dma2 0
Audio devices: NOT ENABLED IN CONFIG
Synth devices:
0: OPL3 FM synth
Midi devices:
0: ESS AudioDrive ES1869 MIDI
7: system timer
0: ESS AudioDrive ES1869
I´ve noticed that audio devices are not enabled in config, but I don´t know what to do.
Last step: As tempestuous said, I added:
fm_port=0x388 to /etc/modprobe.conf
reboot and then installed sbiload and load the soundfonts with:
sbiload -p 17:0 -4 /usr/share/audio/opl3/drums.o3 /usr/share/audio/opl3/std.o3
Then I finally I typed:
aplaymidi -p 17:0 ~/Patricio/Mp3/myfile.mid
and got midi sound.
The problem is that the sound wasn´t ok at all. It plays only the drums and a few other instruments (not the whole song) and if I try to import the same midi file with Audacity then when I try to play it it says:
error while opening sound device, please check the output device settings and the project sample rate
Well, that´s all I´ve done so far. Thank you all again for the replies.
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Joined: 26 Feb 2007
Posts: 3367
Location: The Blue Marble
Posted: Tue 05 Jun 2007, 04:30
Post subject:
You are almost there. To enable the audio, you need to do this:
#modprobe snd-pcm-oss
Check the sndstat again and audio should be enabled
From this point onwards (except the FM synth thingy), you're good to go.
Now - what is it that you actually want to achieve? Perhaps you can tell us in more details. I'm not familiar with either band-in-a-box nor with guitar-pro, but I came with the assumption that you want to:
a) connect your MIDI guitar (if there is such a thing) to record your performance, or
b) use a sequencer software to send MIDI data out to external synthesizers
If a) and b) is what you wish to do, you don't need to do anything else (other than getting Wine to work - which is covered elsewhere in this forum).
If, however, you want to be able play MIDI files in your laptop, then either you use MU's suggestion (use timidity), or perhaps you can use the FM synth (which I absolutely have no idea how to configure - please ask tempestuous nicely).
If you're confused by what I said, perhaps you can tell us what you could do in Windoze. We'll see what we can do in Puppy.
PS: I thought audacity is a sound editor - it edits digital audio files such as WAV files, not MIDI files?
Fatdog64, Slacko and Puppeee user. Puppy user since 2.13.
Contributed Fatdog64 packages thread
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Joined: 31 May 2007
Posts: 6
Posted: Tue 05 Jun 2007, 08:30
Post subject:
jamesbond, I sucessfully managed to enable audio in config with #modprobe snd-pcm-oss.
from this link http://www.linuxjournal.com/article/8802
"Band-in-a-Box is an automatic accompaniment generator. The program creates a virtual backing band that interprets a series of user-defined chord changes according to a selected "style". A Band-in-a-Box style is a set of rules governing quantifiable aspects of a particular music performance style, such as country swing, rhumba, waltz time, blues shuffle and so forth. When the user clicks the Play control, the program processes the chord changes by the style rules, generates a real-time performance stream and plays it with your preferred MIDI synthesizer".
It basically plays a song allowing you to improvise with you instrument (not necessary connected to the pc, not in my case).
From Guitar Pro´s website:
"Guitar Pro is a multitrack tablature editor for guitar, banjo and bass. Besides writing scores, Guitar Pro is a useful resource for guitarists from beginner to experienced levels to progress , compose , or simply accompany themselves".
There´s actually a similar program for linux that is called TuxGuitar , and another called Dguitar, but I can´t find the dotpups (if they exist).
I think the solution would be using Timidity, so here´s my last question: How can I set Timidity as the default midi port?
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Joined: 26 Feb 2007
Posts: 3367
Location: The Blue Marble
Posted: Tue 05 Jun 2007, 12:23
Post subject:
To do that, you need to run timidity in "ALSA server" mode, that is like this:
#timidity -iA
Unfortunately if you try to do that, you will get an error message that "interface A" is not compiled.
You have 3 options:
a) bug someone (=i mean ask nicely
) in this forum to recompile timidity with the proper ALSA server support and provide you with a dotpet that you can use, or
b) recompile timidity yourself, or
c) go and get 3 other sets of packages is already provided.
If you are interested with the 3rd option, these are the packages you need to get:
1) get JACK server from either here:
or here:
(one of them is botched, and I forgot which one - so try either one of them)
2) get QSynth from here:
or here
- again, one of them is botched and I can't remember which one.
3) get one of the available soundfonts
There are many, but for testing I'm recommending this (because of its small size, only 2MB):
Then start QJackCtl, configure it (sample rates etc), when done, start QSynth, configure it - mainly to tell it where to find the soundfonts you downloaded in step3, and you're ready to go. (There are many documentations on how to configure QJackCtl and QSynth in google, if you can't find let me know I'll try to post it here).
If everything works you will be richly rewarded - the sound should be much better than the FM synth. You can use aplaymidi to test it - when configured properly, aplaymidi -l will show additional ports that you can use.
One caveat though:
This particular setup require a pretty muscular CPU, and I am not sure whether your 500 mhz CPU is up to it. Based on my past experiences, however, JACK + QSynth performs better than timidity (ie they eat less CPU time than timidity).
The last alternative is to wait for jcagle. If I'm not mistaken, he's currently building a musician-oriented puplet (called pupbeatz or something) --- I am also eagerly waiting
jcagle, if you read this - any indication of release date or preview?
Good luck !
Fatdog64, Slacko and Puppeee user. Puppy user since 2.13.
Contributed Fatdog64 packages thread
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text:
8"x6" watercolor, ink and yarn on paper. 2016. Original artwork signed by the artist.
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text: The Residences at The Ritz-Carlton, Grand Cayman offer a variety spacious and elegant oceanfront homes that bring a new concept in Caribbean living to the region's most affluent island. Situated on the widest stretch of world famous Seven Mile Beach, these Residences are offered with two to seven bedrooms (2,400-20,000 square feet) and are priced from $3 million. Each Residence features open floorplans, nine to ten foot ceilings, a professionally equipped chef's kitchen and terraces overlooking the Caribbean Sea.


text:
Modern and Surprising Kook Restaurant & Pizzeria Design in Rome
It was difficult for us at first to figure out that this place is not a highly modern condo, but an original looking restaurant. Designed by the creative team at Noses Architects, the KOOK restaurant and pizzeria is located on via Cassia 2040, Rome- again, who would of thought? Glass, iron and concrete were the main materials employed to build the space, which lets out a contemporary feel, a bit unusual for a city with majestic old buildings like Rome.
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text:
China's Students Pushed to Get Graduate Degrees
The majority of China's middle-class parents expect their child to earn a master's degree. The WSJ's Josh Chin explains why some tiger parents are no longer satisfied with just a four-year diploma.
This transcript has been automatically generated and may not be 100% accurate.
I ... the the ... oh and a majority ... and expect their kids to go to graduate school ... I'm Deborah con joining me now is reporter Josh Chin from Bejing ... I'd I sit well with the demand for education is growing in China but had made it a bit premature that were already ... in the demand for graduate school it is is taking on so much ... while you know that it is simply an interesting result ... the the the the the study that were there were talking about ... was conducted by ... research group the Minto and it ... has focused on the middle class so we're not talking about ... all of China ... our party but actually a fairly small group of people whom they can ... do ... to define it is people who were living in Bejing ... the two once it is the kitchen making more than a thousand dollars a month ... I base it is about that because of fifty million of those sorts of households nationwide ... SOEs an attic huge percentage ... but a very very import a group of people that yes they are ... increasingly they feel like their children need to get it into a beast a master's degree ... in order to be in order for them to the status ... nvm it's um masters degrees are becoming more popular and efficiently we saw a lot of people from China going into the math and science is a business ... if it still that way ... we know this this study did really go into that sort of detail but we know ... from our previous reporting that yes engineering ... math science science majors and gratitude to these are still still very very ... popular here this is seen as a kind of of a surefire way to get a job ... especially China now pushing the more innovative you know anything that sort of involved do you get yourself involved in ... research and development that sort of thing that that that the feeling is that that you probably have a pretty good ... good future ... you're the other piece of this is interesting is the isthe civil service ... um exam which ... you know a lot of of more more people are ... sort of forgoing ... of this idea of working for multinationals ... do foreign companies and instead are debating for ... government jobs the because of its PC that is a more stable ... with better benefits ... and that the competition that is to be picked up in those jobs are also increasingly requiring applicants to have master's degrees of some ... you know ten years ago and it if you are a tiny and in you made it to the Univeristy of Bronte Khona hit the jackpot ... is that it was seeing that change a bit and with more ... students opting to stay in China were university out what's the trend for graduate degree ... I'll what he noted that it isn't so difficult that I know ... a ton of where all the movie goes a mean that the US is is getting a large number of units of whom or more people going to the U S from China to to study ... and you know it's a will say without reflects ... a new more interest in signing a broader society maybe the pool ... of people ... who can can afford to go to college ... is just growing sea of more people go to college here and ... abroad ... um you want the trends with the with organ to stick to the US is out to people going there and younger ... now so there's always a strong interest in going to to the US for graduate school ... but now you know ... what is the middle classes for ... the Chinese families who can afford it ... swish of us are deftly sending their ... kids abroad ... for middle class parents who don't have a choice of the that that that which is really high in the US ... from a Chinese dam was perspective there are a lot of starch it's available so that sort of ... you know they have to send the kids to schools in China ... and so they're they're very eager to make sure those with the kids get to go to the top universities here ... again it's also interesting to watch as that a lot of them are seen ... as institutions actually an open up programs in China and and this I've heard are getting quite popular as well ... write a right a lot of universities ... in the photo to make the U ... K banks and that's just an NAV reporter from Beijing for that star am more or you can get to China Real Time I'm Deborah con for The Wall Street Journal ... digital network


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text:
LOS ANGELES � California was lashed Friday by heavy rains that the parched state so desperately needs, though with the soaking came traffic snarls, power outages and the threat of mudslides.
Even with rainfall totals exceeding 6 inches in some places by midday, the powerful Pacific storm did not put a major dent in a drought that is among the worst in recent California history.
The first waves of the storm drenched foothill communities east of Los Angeles that just weeks ago were menaced by a wildfire � and now faced the threat of mudslides. Mandatory evacuation orders were issued for about 1,200 homes in the area. Small debris flows covered one street in Glendora, but no property damage occurred, police said.
Forecasters expected the storm to last through Saturday in California before trundling east into similarly rain-starved neighboring states. Phoenix was expecting its first noticeable precipitation in two months.
The threat of mudslides will last at least through Saturday night. Tornadoes and water spouts were possible as the next wave of the storm came ashore Friday.
Rainfall totals in parts of California were impressive, especially in areas that typically don't receive much, but not nearly enough to offer long-term relief from a long-running drought.
Downtown Los Angeles received 2 inches before a midday reprieve, but remained about 12 inches below normal rainfall totals for the season.
''We need several large storms and we just don't see that on the horizon. This is a rogue storm,'' National Weather Service meteorologist Eric Boldt said. ''We will dry out next week.''
But for this rain, the service said, this would have been the driest December through February on record in Los Angeles.
Rain also fell in the central coast counties, the San Francisco Bay region and the Central Valley. Winter storm warnings were in effect in the Sierra Nevada for heavy snowfall.
Farmer Ray Gene Veldhuis, who grows almonds, walnuts and pistachios and runs a 2,300-cow dairy in the Central Valley's Merced County, welcomed the wet weather but knew it would not rescue California from drought.
''Hopefully, they keep coming,'' Veldhuis said of the storms. ''If not, we'll deal with the hand we're dealt.''
The storm brought familiar problems.
Numerous traffic accidents occurred on slick or flooded roads across California, including one about 60 miles east of Los Angeles involving a big rig whose driver died after falling from a freeway overpass.
Two men and their dogs were rescued from the swift waters of the Los Angeles River. Hundreds of miles north in San Jose, firefighters also pulled a man from swollen Coyote Creek near a homeless encampment. He was treated for hypothermia.
Power outages hit about 24,000 customers, the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power and Southern California Edison said.
In Glendora and Azusa, cities about 25 miles east of Los Angeles that sit beneath nearly 2,000 acres of steep mountain slopes stripped by fire in January, catch basins filled with a muddy soup of debris � though homes were spared. With the vegetation gone, little held the dirt and rock in place.
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''This time there's nothing you can do. You can't stop water,'' said Waldusky.
Meteorologists posted flood watches for many other areas denuded by fires over the past two years.


text:
Prior to last year's NFL Draft, everyone (myself included) said Andrew Luck was the most pro-ready quarterback prospect to enter the NFL since Peyton Manning. However, prior to the 2012 season, nobody (myself included) said he was good enough to carry this Indianapolis Colts team to the playoffs. It's beginning to look like all of us underestimated both Luck and the Colts.
NFL Replay
will re-air the Indianapolis Colts' 23-20 win over the Miami Dolphins in Week 9 on Tuesday, Nov. 6
at 9:30 p.m. ET.
» NFL Network schedule
The Colts are now 5-3 following Sunday's 23-20 win over the Miami Dolphins, which came courtesy of another incredible performance by Luck. He completed 30 of 48 passes for a rookie-record 433 yards and two touchdowns. Those numbers are extraordinary, but I was even more impressed by his play on third downs; Luck helped the Colts convert 13 of 19 third-down opportunities. Six of those conversions occurred with the Colts needing 10 yards or more.
Other Colts players have contributed to this turnaround. Reggie Wayne has played about as well as any wide receiver in the NFL, and linebacker Robert Mathis has keyed an improved defense. However, this team is in playoff contention largely because of its rookie signal-caller.
Luck's combination of physical tools, football instincts and ability to handle pressure make him a very rare player. Good quarterbacks possess two of those traits, but the great ones have all three. Luck has consistently displayed the arm strength and accuracy to make every throw on the field. He's continually exhibited the football instincts to create plays when things break down around him. And he's proven he can handle pressure situations by guiding the Colts on four game-winning drives in the fourth quarter or overtime.
|Colts offense, before and after Luck's drafting
|W-L record
|Points per game
|Yards per game
|Pass yards per game
|Pass plays of 25+ yards
|Third-down conversion percentage
|*Combined stats of Colts' QBs through Week 9
Luck is the definition of a difference-maker. To fully understand the impact he's had on the Colts, check out the statistics from the first nine weeks of the 2011 and 2012 seasons in the box to the right.
The Colts still have eight games to play this season, but they're in a great position to earn a playoff berth. The competition in the AFC is down this year; nine wins will probably be enough to clinch a wild-card spot. Five of the Colts' remaining games are against beatable opponents: the Jacksonville Jaguars, Buffalo Bills, Detroit Lions, Tennessee Titans and Kansas City Chiefs. The Colts also have a Week 17 contest against a Houston Texans team that could be resting some key players, assuming the Texans already have locked up a first-round bye.
The Colts were very fortunate to have Peyton Manning as their starting quarterback for 13 seasons; he made them a consistent playoff team throughout his tenure. Now it looks as though the Colts could be ready to start another playoff run with his replacement.
In fact, if the season ended today, the Colts would be playoff-bound. Who would they play? You guessed it: Manning and the Denver Broncos.
The Packers' version of Percy Harvin
One of the standout players of the first half of the 2012 campaign has been Green Bay Packers wide receiver Randall Cobb. Against the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday, Cobb provided a great sampling of his playmaking abilities. He caught two touchdown passes, rushed for 29 yards on three carries and had a 44-yard kickoff return and a 28-yard punt return. He's currently leading the Packers with 45 catches and has already caught six touchdown passes.
Comparing players is always a helpful way for scouts to put abilities in the proper context. Cobb is incredibly similar to a player inside his own division: Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Percy Harvin. Cobb and Harvin are alike in size, quickness and versatility. They both can impact the return game, create after the catch and carry the football from the backfield.
Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers has continued to gain confidence in Cobb, who, in just his second year, has already established himself as one of the top playmakers in the NFL. The Packers' receiving corps has been banged up this season, but Cobb has more than picked up the slack. If he can continue to play at this level, the Packers' passing game is going to be nearly impossible to slow down.
Three startling statistics
1) The Detroit Lions have yet to record a run of 20 yards or more this season. It's no secret that the Lions rely on their passing attack, but this is still a surprising statistic. To put this in perspective, Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Doug Martin had three touchdown runs of 45 yards or more in Sunday's game against the Oakland Raiders alone. The Lions haven't had a single run of half that distance.
2) The Chicago Bears' pass defense has scored as many touchdowns as it's allowed. This statistic really stunned me. The Bears' pass defense has basically played to a draw so far this season, allowing seven touchdown passes while scoring seven times off of interceptions. That's crazy!
3) Receiver A.J. Green has caught at least one touchdown pass in seven of the Cincinnati Bengals' eight games. As good as he was as a rookie last season, Green accomplished that feat in just seven games all year. Green's debut campaign was phenomenal. He was voted to the Pro Bowl and I personally tabbed him as the third-best receiver in the NFL. He's been even better in 2012: He's tied for the league lead in touchdown receptions with eight and is on pace to finish the year with more than 1,400 receiving yards.
Peyton isn't a one-man band
Along with the rest of the media, I've been effusive in my praise of Peyton Manning's play this season. He is a legitimate MVP candidate and has exceeded the most optimistic expectations with his performance following multiple neck procedures. That being said, he isn't the only reason the Denver Broncos are sitting atop the AFC West. The following Broncos players deserve some attention as well:
» Wide receivers Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker: Thomas is currently fourth in the NFL in receiving yards (756) and has caught more passes of 20 yards or more (17) than anyone in the league. Decker, meanwhile, is currently tied for third in the league with seven touchdown receptions. Both receivers quickly have adapted to their new quarterback and make big plays on a weekly basis.
» Running back Willis McGahee: McGahee is on pace to rush for more than 1,200 yards. Manning needs a strong running game to set up the play-action pass and create windows down the field; McGahee gives him that.
» Offensive line: The Broncos' offensive line has allowed the second-fewest sacks (10) in the NFL. Manning is known for his quick release, but his line has been a great help, keeping him from taking many hits, let alone sacks.
» Pass rushers Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil: Miller is currently tied for second in the NFL with nine sacks, and Dumervil isn't far behind with six. They form one of the NFL's most disruptive pass-rushing duos and have helped close out several Denver victories.
Follow Daniel Jeremiah on Twitter @MoveTheSticks.


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The Iron Saint was the first comic book series I created and wrote. I started in mid 2005 and had written the six books by early 2006. I then set out to find the best artists I could find to bring it to life.
My first call was to Joe Madureira, who I had credited in game magazines with inspiring Jak and Daxter's art style. Luckily for me he remembered the compliments and took the call. A little coercing and I had the designs for the two main characters, Iron and Angel. To flesh out the rest of the crew Joe recommended Jeff Matsuda, whose sense of style really brings the cast to life. I love these guys, and I have collaborated with them many times since. The rest of the style book was created at Blur Studios under the direction of Chuck Wojtkiewicz. If you know comics, you will know that this is far more pre-production then most books go through, but I really wanted to hit it out of the partk. Chuck and his team did so
For actual books I was lucky enough to find Francis Manapul, who was already incredible but had not yet settled on his current style. To assist him with the backgrounds, which I insisted were far more detailed then most comic series, Joel Gomez kicked in. The establishing pages for each book, including a downshot on the city took him 3-5 days a piece! Finally, Danimation and Comicraft donated the colors and lettering respectively.
Finally, Aspen Comics took on the publishing. This introduced me to Michael Turner, a legendary artist and one of the most incredible human beings I have ever met.. Michael contributed some of the best covers for the books, and his advice was instrumental. Sadly, Michael succombed to cancer shortly after completing his work with The Iron Saint. Some of the covers he did were the last pieces of art he worked on.
I had an incredible time creating this series, which took over 3 years from first draft to TPB. I even did a short 3D movie test with Billy Harper and his team at the Dreamhive.


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The walls in my house are made of Bungaroosh which means that attaching anything to them is most likely to hit some issues. Recently I've been trying to fit a floating shelf to the wall, but no matter what I do it ends up coming away.
The steps I've taken so far are:
- Drill hole
- Place vacuum nozzle up against hole to get all the fallen bits out
- Fill hole with filler and put wall plug in
- Wait for this to dry and then attach item with screws
This approach seems to work normally, but this shelf has turned out to be fairly heavy so it's pulling itself off the wall. I also tried some Gripfill but not sure if this is appropriate for this job - it also didn't work.
Can anyone suggest any alternate approaches I could try?


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Straw Mushroom in brine. This straw whole mushroom is ready to add in your soup or dishes. Many popular Thai soups are calling for this mushroom such as Tom Yum or Tom Kha soup, also in stir fried dishes and curry soups. Straw mushroom is plain and little crunchy texture. Ingredients: Straw mushrooms, water, salt. Net Weight: 15.0 oz. Drain weight 7.4 oz. Product of Thailand.
Saving more with Straw Mushroom 6 packs.
Copyright © 2004 - 2019 GroceryThai.com


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Ehlert's Finish Leads Bisons In VU Cross Country Invitational
Weldon Ehlert's 23rd place finish led the way for Lipscomb's Bisons cross country team in the Vanderbilt Invitational Saturday at Edwin Warner Park.
The Bisons finished eighth out of nine teams in the event.
Also completing 8-K course for Lipscomb were Zac Yanis (54th, 28:30.27), Kevin Green (56th, 28:34.04), Eric Brown (59th, 28:38.30), Daniel Pelletier (65th, 29:01.80, Naeem Thompson (90th, 31:01.61) and Matt McWhirter (95th, 33:03.38).


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London Olympics bronze medallist Saina Nehwal retained her third place in the Badminton World Federation (BWF) women's rankings released Friday.
Saina recently lost in the final of the French Open Super Series to Japan's Minatsu Mitani after winning the Denmark Open Super Series Premier in October.
Another Hyderabadi, P.V. Sindhu retained her 25th position on the table.
Among the men, London Olympics quarter-finalist Parupalli Kashyap and Mumbai's Ajay Jayaram also held on to 23rd and 27th positions, respectively. Sourabh Verma, who hails from Dhar, Madhya Pradesh, dropped a place to 33.
In the men's doubles, Kerala shuttlers K.T. Rupesh Kumar and Sanave Thomas gained a place to be 27th.
Jwala Gutta, who is taking a sabbatical from the badminton tour currently, still figures in the women's and mixed doubles rankings.
In women's, Jwala and Ashwini Ponnappa are ranked 21st while in mixed doubles she is 19th with V. Diju.
Assembly elections 2019 | Get the latest news, views and analysis on elections in Haryana and Maharashtra on DeccanHerald.com
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I got to thinking about this problem while sifting through the math puzzles for dinner thread. There's a fun puzzle by rgrig which asks the guests to prove that when they came to dinner two of them shook hands the same amount of times. The solution is to make the handshake graph, and apply the pigeonhole principle on the vertex degrees. The key observation is that if there are $n$ guests, then the degrees 0 and $n-1$ cannot both occur.
Yaakov Baruch made the astute comment that the result is false if the forgetful mathematicians shake hands twice with each other. However, note that mathematicians are probably not so forgetful to shake hands three times with someone. This leads us to the following questions:
Question 1. Is it true that for large $n$, every loopless multigraph on $n$ vertices with at most two parallel edges between any two vertices has two vertices of the same degree? This is false for $n=3,4,5,6,7$.
Question 2. Is there a nice characterization of such degree sequences?
I'll finish with what is known. If we allow loops, then the problem is trivial, because all sequences whose sum is even are degree sequences. To see this, put a matching on the odd degree vertices, and then add loops. For simple graphs, there are many nice characterizations. For example, the Erdos-Gallai theorem says that a decreasing sequence $(d_1, \dots, d_n)$ is a degree sequence of a simple graph if and only if $\sum_i d_i$ is even and for all $k \in [n]$
\[ \sum_{i=1}^k d_i \leq k(k-1)+ \sum_{i=k+1}^n \min (k, d_i). \]
This sort of answers Question 2, since a degree sequence of a multigraph with multiplicity at most 2 is the sum of two degree sequences of simple graphs. However, this is a rather convoluted characterization, and it is unclear how to answer Question 1 from it.
I'll end by mentioning that if we do not bound the multiplicity of edges, then there is a nice characterization of degree sequences of multigraphs by Hakimi (1962).


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The first one made me want to urp.. No one would be my answer!
It was something like who in the BB house would you like to use mouth to mouth resuscitation on you. The first thing that popped in my mind was a lot of the HGs smoke.
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Thank you Paloma for having me as a guest to share my favorite room. It's tricky to pick one part of our studio apartment as my favorite because we essentially live in one room, but I have to say, I am currently loving our living room area. It's the part of our apartment that we don't end up using all too much, but since I now work from home, I find it as the place I want to sit and read at night or cuddle up on to read magazine and drink a cup of tea.
Another reason I love our living room is because it's constantly evolving. I'm always rotating the art above the couch, changing out the coffee table books, even changing the coffee table. It's a fun way to feel refreshed without changing large pieces in my home.
A living room is also the place where family and friends gather when they come over - there are so many memories that have been made around this space.
Lastly, I think it's important to have pieces that have meaning and stories behind them in your living room. We have treasures we've picked up around the world - a cross from Santa Fe, metal hearts that have our vows inside them and then Polaroid's from trips or parties we've hosted (friends love looking through them). It's a fun way for them to get to know us better and a great conversation starter!
I hope you've enjoyed this little peek into our living room, and thank you Paloma for having me! If you want to see more of our space please pop over to Sacramento Street! Photo by Caitlin Flemming


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Nude Webcams and Diet Drugs: the Facebook Ads Teens Aren't Supposed to See
"Who do you like?" asked recent ads on Facebook, featuring young women in alluring poses.
Some of the ads were configured to reach young teens, who were invited to join an app called Ilikeq that let others rate their attractiveness, comment on their photos and say if they would like to date them.
That's how 14-year-old Erica Lowder's...


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Pelosi wants to make a deal
Nancy Pelosi wants to make a deal.
But every time it appears she could deliver the votes for important legislation, the House minority leader is left standing with no one to negotiate with.
Story Continued Below
In the run-up to the shutdown, some observers believed that eventually House Speaker John Boehner would have to turn to Pelosi (D-Calif.) to cobble together a bipartisan coalition to avert government closure. And in doing so, Pelosi would gain leverage to negotiate something for House Democrats.
But just two days before a possible U.S. debt default and more than two weeks into the shutdown, Boehner's request has yet to come.
( PHOTOS: 25 great shutdown quotes)
Instead, Pelosi has reached out to the speaker nearly every day for weeks, according to Democratic aides, either talking to the Republican leader on the floor or calling him to the point of pestering.
But Boehner has yet to solicit her help — despite Pelosi's ability to deliver House Democrats and the fact that most of them would support a government funding bill and debt ceiling hike without controversial policy add-ons. So, as Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) wrangled a deal, with Boehner and McConnell talking, Pelosi has yet to find herself at the negotiating table. But that doesn't mean she's not interjected herself into the discussions, offering almost daily to work with Boehner and keeping herself in the loop with Reid and President Barack Obama.
The Democratic leader could still be central to a deal if Boehner agrees to put on the floor any Senate pact to stop the shutdown and avert default. And her ability to unite House Democrats — a key voting bloc if Boehner upsets conservatives by allowing a vote on a bipartisan measure — is duly noted.
"We will prevail if we see the big picture: Our unity gives the president leverage," Pelosi told her caucus in a closed meeting on Thursday, according to an aide at the meeting.
( Also on POLITICO: White House: House GOP bill demands a 'ransom')
Democratic House members and aides insist Pelosi is playing a key role in the shutdown-debt hike crises. And surprisingly, Democrats aren't clamoring for her to exact concessions from an eventual deal — at this point anyway.
Democrats and observers pointed to Pelosi's iron-clad ability to keep her caucus unified — and in line with Reid — as the negotiations play out as crucial to the endgame.
"Leader Pelosi has an impeccable sense of the time for every season," Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-Va.) said. "Given the fact that there have been absolutely no negotiations among any of the parties up until now — negotiations, not even conversations worthy of the name, she understood quite naturally that her role was to hold the Democrats together. To provide unity, to backstop both the White House and, frankly, Harry Reid."
( PHOTOS: Nancy Pelosi's career)
"She has [had a role] behind the scenes; the president knows exactly what Nancy wants," Rep. Jim Moran (D-Va.) said. "And Nancy has control of the Democratic Caucus and Boehner can't get anything through unless Nancy releases enough Democrats to let it through. Everybody knows the calculations."
But instead of trying to get something in exchange for the possible support of Democrats, Pelosi seems content to give stuff away.
She agreed to accept the Republican budget number of $986 billion annually, a far cry from the $1.058 trillion that Democrats wanted — getting 195 Democrats to put it in writing. She then volunteered to give up one of the only ways the minority can force votes on the House floor during a budget debate, a procedure called "motions to instruct" that are allowed if a budget conference reaches a standoff for more than 20 days.
In the lead-up to the shutdown, House Democrats insisted they wouldn't accept sequester-level budget numbers. But Pelosi made a deal with her members: She would ensure sequester spending stayed in place for only six weeks, giving them time to try to increase the numbers in order to support a bill that kept government open. It was a simple trade-off — Democrats would appear to be the ones accepting compromise and avert blame for the shutdown in exchange for the lower numbers.
Even as the Senate has negotiated a possible end to the shutdown that would keep sequester cuts in place into the new year, Pelosi has made the case that Democrats are better off accepting the deal instead of pushing back.
"That's been very important, not only [for] unity within our caucus but unity with Harry Reid," Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) said. "A lot of our members are not happy about the sequester levels, so that was no easy lift."


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The Kitchen at Atomic [2,] Las Vegas NV
The Kitchen at Atomic Modern Times Cold Brew Not Your Average Joe – Stout Casked Whiskey, Modern Times Cold Brew, Anise, Milk, Coconut Hot Smoked Trout – Chives, Lemon, Toast, Gooseberries English Pea Hash – Mint, Lemon Zest on Grilled … Continue reading
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