text:
Grilled Chicken Recipe with Sage, Rosemary, and Garlic Dried Herb Rub
Grilled chicken with Sage, Rosemary, and Garlic Dried Herb Rub
(Makes 4 servings, recipe created by Kalyn using Judy and David's Recipe for Dried Herb Rub.)
4 boneless, skinless chicken breasts
2 T Sage, Rosemary, and Garlic Dried Herb Rub
(or use 1 T dried sage, 1 tsp. dried rosemary, 1 tsp. dried garlic, and 1/2 tsp. sea salt)
Marinade Ingredients:
2 T white wine vinegar
5 T extra-virgin olive oil
1 tsp. Dijon mustard
1 tsp. minced garlic (I used garlic puree in a jar)
Put the 2 T of dried herb rub (or the mixture of dried herbs listed above) into mortar and pestle and grind until crushed and powdered. (If you don't have a mortar and pestle, put the herb rub or herb mixture in a plastic bag and crush with something heavy.) Rub chicken on both sides with the herb mixture, rubbing it in until all the dried herbs are used.
Put chicken in a Ziploc bag or flat plastic container. Whisk together marinade ingredients, then pour over chicken. Seal bag or container and marinate chicken in refrigerator all day. (If you're home, turn it a few times, but it's not essential.)
To cook, spray grill with nonstick spray or olive oil, then remove chicken from refrigerator and let it come to room temperature while gas or charcoal grill preheats to medium-high. (You can only hold your hand there for a few seconds at that temperture.) For grill marks, cook chicken 4-5 minutes on first side, then rotate and cook 4-5 minutes more before turning chicken over. Total cooking time will be 15-20 minutes, but chicken is done when it feels firm to the touch and is lightly browned on both sides. (Don't talk on the phone and overcook the chicken like I did, although it still did taste great.) Serve hot.
This chicken could also be cooked in a stove-top grill pan with ridges or a George Foreman Grill with good results.
South Beach Suggestions:
Lean chicken cooked on the grill like this is perfect for any phase of the South Beach Diet, or any low-glycemic eating plan. This chicken would make a great phase one dinner paired with Grilled Asparagus with Double Lemon and Parmesan and Mashed Cauliflower with Cheese and Dill.
More Tasty Grilled Chicken:
(Recipes from other blogs may not always be South Beach Diet friendly; check ingredients.)
Rosemary Mustard Grilled Chicken or Zucchini
Grilled Chicken with Lemon, Capers, and Oregano
Grilled Fusion Chicken
Grilled Lime and Chile Chicken with Mango and Red Bell Pepper Salsa
Curried Chicken on the Grill with Cilantro Chutney
Red Chile Marinated Grilled Chicken from Simply Recipes
Grilled Chile-Lime-Ponzu Chicken from The Perfect Pantry
Grilled Chicken with Lemon and Oregano from The Recipe Girl
Chicken Schwarma from My Cooking Quest
Asian Style Grilled Chicken from Good Things Catered
Want even more recipes?
I find these recipes from other blogs using Food Blog Search.


text:
Parents and students: You do not need to log in to view any content on this site. Return to the district homepage.
District staff: Log in below using your district username (the first initial of your first name combined with your last name)
and password (same as your computer) to access the staff intranet and to edit any district pages that have been assigned to you.
Please contact the Communications Department at firstname.lastname@example.com or 651-403-7022 with questions.

subset: commoncrawl


text:
Staff writer
The last time Barb and Larry Smith of Marion took a vacation to Branson, Mo., they could only attend one variety show because of high cost.
"Where we used to be able to go to four or five shows, we had to choose only one because the cost per show was so high," Barb Smith said. "I am so excited that we are bringing a Branson quality show and a five-course dinner to Marion for Valentine's Day, and it is less than half of what you would pay there per person."
The Smith's Valentine's Day event will take place at 6:30 p.m. on Feb. 14 at the Marion City Building, where, by reservation, Barb hopes people will enjoy dinner out and three-and-a-half hours of live entertainment.
"We're calling our show the Ballknockers, a play off the Baldknobbers of Branson," she said. "The reason why will become evident once the show begins."
Most of Smith's performers are Tabor College, Butler County Community College, or Marion High School students well-versed in drama and musical performance. Some, like the Sunflower Cloggers from McPherson, and the Petty Cash Band do not have local connections but fit Barb's idea of a good time for her customers.
"It's all going to be family friendly," she said. "We have everything planned down to the minute and our line-up includes everything from singers, cloggers, comedy acts, and a big band finale."
Smith said she already had reservations pouring in from Marion County as well as Newton, Walton, Wichita, and Hutchinson.
"I knew when people started calling the week after Christmas I had to figure out what we were going to do," she said. "In January I was already full-up in the restaurant so that is why we decided to move the whole thing to the city building."
An added benefit of moving to a larger facility with capacity for up to 300 reservations was a big stage for Smith's performers.
"We have the nightly singers at our restaurant," she said. "But for the first time we are taking them onto a stage and giving them a crowd to sing to and interact with. The thing I have learned about these performers is that they love the crowds. You get a packed house and they rise to the occasion."
Smith said her local performers were her "heart" children and some had been with her since they opened the restaurant in 2006.
"These kids fill the gaps for us," she said. "Some of our grandchildren are pretty spread out by now, and we get to know these people who work for us as well or better than our own family. I want them to be successful. Giving them a chance to perform on a big stage in front of crowd — this is so exciting."
Smith said her servers, who also double as singers at the restaurant, were talented enough that they could probably walk on to any Branson show stage and have success.
"I am so fortunate to be in an area where there is such a high level of musical and performance talent," she said. "These kids are just great."
Local talent will serve as emcees of the event and act the parts of characters such as Dolly Parton, Andy Williams, Ray Stevens, and the Judds. Also slated for the evening are actors portraying Confederate Railroad and Shoji Tabuchi, famous violin player.
During the entertainment, waiters will serve customers hors d'oeuvres, Caesar salad, prime roast beef, fresh asparagus, baked potatoes, and a dessert.
"You don't get rich in the restaurant business," Smith said. "You have to enjoy it or you just can't do it. It is a very demanding job, but our reward is our customers and our staff. These people become our friends. We learn to know their families. We know when someone is sick; we feel their joys and sorrows."
Next Thursday, Smith wants to give her customers a special treat.
She has done Valentine's Day specials at her restaurant before, with themed dinners around a cruise ship, Cajun life, the '50s, country songs, Elvis, and others. She said each year she tries to top the previous year with something better, but this Branson-like show might be hard to top.
"We have Gene Winkler doing the professional light and sound. We have a photographer scheduled to take pictures. It's just going to be a lot of fun," she said.
Smith said her husband Larry was responsible for about 50 percent of her Valentine's Day plans, and her restaurant staff helped her brainstorm all other ideas.
"I am very fortunate to live and work with such great people here in Marion," she said. "This is small town life at its finest."


text:
Threat rotations and when to change them:
Hey guys,
Had a pretty good reception from my last post, so I thought I'd write up something a little more rich with paladin detail.
Any tank has two basic jobs.
One is to generate enough threat for the damage-dealers to not have to hold back too much. Eventually, its inevitable that they will be holding back, but, especially on fights with sensitive enrages, its important to put out as much threat as possible.
The other is to survive, obviously. A dead tank generates no threat. Most of the work you have to do to keep yourself alive is done way before the raid, when preparing your gear. Once in the raid, your life is in the hands of the healers. Obviously you have a few things you can do to help them but basically you need to trust your healers.
In this little post, I'll be talking about our first job, and how it relates to paladins.
Most people in here would know a basic threat rotation for paladin tanks.
Seal Righteousness
Avenger's Shield (if possible)
Judge Righteousness on the primary target while dropping a Consecrate
Seal Righteousness
Holy Shield
if on a boss, you do Holy Shield before the Judgement.
Thats pretty easy, right? Right.
The hard part is that all of these abilities cost mana. You get your mana back from being healed, but what if you're not taking enough damage? You're going to get less mana. This is where you have to start looking at doing something. You can basically either, a) get more mana, or b) spend less mana.
Of course, its preferable to get more mana, because then you can continue your threat production. There's a couple of ways to do this. Mana pots are the easiest and quickest. I always carry a healthy supply with me. Seal and Judgement of Wisdom are good also, although I prefer to use them to prevent mana shortages, and not to fix a current one, as they work slowly. Judging Wisdom on a boss at the start of a fight will give you a lot of mana back over the fight.
There is also three "unorthodox" methods to get mana. One is a Demonic Rune. Little known to many players who did not play before The Burning Crusade, Demonic Runes drop in many of the high-level instances in Azeroth, Dire Maul, and the like. They restore 900-1500 mana at the cost of 900-1500 health. So, you get mana, and you also take some damage, which then translates into more mana from Spiritual Attunement when you get healed.
If you're REALLY scraping the barrel for mana, you can use Lay on Hands on yourself. It will give you 900 mana.
Finally, you can mash the X key. This will cause you to "sit" (unless you've changed your key bindings from the default for this key) and automatically take a critical hit on the next hit. The next heal you get will give you more mana back, as it will be healing actual damage and not overhealing. Obviously this is not a good idea if you're tanking a hard-hitting boss, but then again if you're tanking a hard hitting boss you're probably not having mana problems to begin with.
The second option when faced with mana starvation is to spend less of it. This is what you move onto once you've exhausted all avenues of getting more mana.
Personally I don't change my threat rotation all that much, as by the time I've exhausted all avenues for getting mana back, the fight is over and I can drink. However, here's a few tips I use, during combat, that make a small difference.
-If you're AOE tanking a few mobs, but they are not being killed by AOE, you can probably drop Consecrate from the rotation after two-three full Consecrates. It will be plenty to keep ahead of healer aggro, and you can focus your Seals/Judgments on the target being killed first.
-Judge and Seal Wisdom. Energy gains such as mana are AOE threat, and in a huge AOE situation (Hyjal), can actually add up to more overall threat than if you went through and hit mobs with Righteousness up.
-Balance your threat cooldowns. If I look at my actionbar and see that I have 30 seconds left before Avenging Wrath and my Icon of the Silver Crescent are both cooled down, and I look at my mana bar and see that I'm spending mana faster than I'm gaining it, I'll slow down a little. What this achieves is that when its time to blow those cooldowns, you don't want to be running low on mana, because it will lessen their effect. What you ACTUALLY want to do is to maximize the effect of those, by spending as much mana as possible on threat abilities while they are up.
The other half of managing mana is when you have so much incoming damage, and thus, incoming heals, that you simply cannot spend your mana fast enough. Everyone loves to be in this situation. In this situation, what you want to be doing is hurling Judgments every cooldown without fail, Consecrating constantly, if the enemy boss is Undead, using Exorcism, and even, if your latency allows for it, weaving Avenger's Shield and Hammer of Wrath in between the boss swing timer. If you want to go REALLY overboard, you can constantly recast Righteous Fury. It will dump a lot of mana and give you more threat from Spiritual Attunement gains.


text:
7 Unique Natural Phenomena
Here are 7 Unique natural phenomena that you have probably never seen before! From Morocco's tree climing goats to honduras's rain of fishes, Kerala's red rain and many more!
Morocco's Climbing Goats
Goats on trees are found mostly only in Morocco. The goats climb them because they like to eat the fruit of the argan tree, which is similar to an olive. Farmers actually follow the herds of goats as they move from tree to tree. Not because it is so strange to see goats in trees and the farmers like to point and stare, but because the fruit of the tree has a nut inside, which the goats can't digest, so they spit it up or excrete it which the farmers collect. The nut contains 1-3 kernels, which can be ground to make argan oil used in cooking and cosmetics. This oil has been collected by the people of the region for hundreds of years, but like many wild and useful things these days, the argan tree is slowly disappearing due to over-harvesting for the tree's wood and overgrazing by goats.
Venezuela's Everlasting Storm
Venezuela's Everlasting Storm
The mysterious "Relámpago del Catatumbo" (Catatumbo lightning) is a unique natural phenomenon in the world. Located on the mouth of the Catatumbo river at Lake Maracaibo (Venezuela), the phenomenon is a cloud-to-cloud lightning that forms a voltage arc more than five kilometre high during 140 to 160 nights a year, 10 hours a night, and as many as 280 times an hour. This almost permanent storm occurs over the marshlands where the Catatumbo River feeds into Lake Maracaibo and it is considered the greatest single generator of ozone in the planet, judging from the intensity of the cloud-to-cloud discharge and great frequency.
Honduras' Rain of Fishes
Honduras' Rain of Fishes
The Rain of Fish is common in Honduran Folklore. It occurs in the Departamento de Yoro, between the months of May and July. Witnesses of this phenomenon state that it begins with a dark cloud in the sky followed by lightning, thunder, strong winds and heavy rain for 2 to 3 hours. Once the rain has stopped, hundreds of living fish are found on the ground. People take the fish home to cook and eat them. Since 1998 a festival known as "Festival de la Lluvia de Peces" (Rain of Fish Festival) is celebrated every year in the city of Yoro, Departamento de Yoro, Honduras.
Kerala's (extraterrestrial?) Red Rain
Kerala's (extraterrestrial?) Red Rain
From 25 July to 23 September 2001, red rain sporadically fell on the southern Indian state of Kerala. Heavy downpours occurred in which the rain was coloured red, staining clothes with an appearance similar to that of blood. Yellow, green, and black rain was also reported.
Brazilian's longest wave on the Earth
Brazilian's longest wave on the Earth
Twice a year, between the months of February and March, the Atlantic Ocean waters roll up the Amazon river, in Brazil, generating the longest wave on the Earth. The phenomenon, known as the Pororoca, is caused by the tides of the Atlantic Ocean wich meet the mouth of the river. This tidal bore generates waves up to 12 feet high which can last for over half an hour.
The wave has become popular with surfers. Since 1999, an annual championship has been held in São Domingos do Capim. However, surfing the Pororoca is especially dangerous, as the water contains a significant amount of debris from the margins of the river (often, entire trees). The record that we could find for surfing the longest distance on the Pororoca was set by Picuruta Salazar, a brazilian surfer who, in 2003, managed to ride the wave for 37 minutes and travel 12.5 kilometers. A surfer's dream: riding an almost never-ending wave.
Denmark's Black Sun
Denmark's Black Sun
During spring in Denmark, at approximately one half an hour before sunset, flocks of more than a million European starlings (sturnus vulgaris) gather from all corners to join in the incredible formations shown above. This phenomenon is called Black Sun (in Denmark), and can be witnessed in early spring throughout the marshlands of western Denmark, from March through to the middle of April. The starlings migrate from the south and spend the day in the meadows gathering food, sleeping in the reeds during the night.
Idaho's Fire Rainbow
Idaho's Fire Rainbow
The atmospheric phenomenon known as a circumhorizon(tal) arc, or "Fire rainbow", appears when the sun is high in the sky (i.e., higher than 58° above the horizon), and its light passes through diaphanous, high-altitude cirrus clouds made up of hexagonal plate crystals. Sunlight entering the crystals' vertical side faces and leaving through their bottom faces is refracted (as through a prism) and separated into an array of visible colors. When the plate crystals in cirrus clouds are aligned optimally (i.e., with their faces parallel to the ground), the resulting display is a brilliant spectrum of colors reminiscent of a rainbow. The example shown above was captured on camera as it hung for about an hour across a several-hundred square mile area of sky above northern Idaho (near the Washington border) on 3 June 2006.


text:
16 Year Old Australian Girl Gets Tasered By Police!
News Nine reports "Controversial footage of a 16-year–old girl being tasered by a police officer in Queensland has been released, despite a legal bid to suppress the images. The Taser incident, which has prompted scathing criticism from the Crime and Misconduct Commission, took place at South Bank, Brisbane last April".
Please click the "Report" button below if the video on this page is not working properly.
Comments will only be displayed by verified emails. No Spamming or Racism.


text:
AlexNYC wrote:FYI, Fubo.tv added the DVR functionality to the cycling channel
They did I just set up the Giro for today and tomorrow
Moderators: Eshnar, Irondan, King Boonen, Red Rick, Pricey_sky
AlexNYC wrote:FYI, Fubo.tv added the DVR functionality to the cycling channel
AlexNYC wrote:I love Fubo too. And we got Kirby commentating as a bonus! Not everyone on this forum likes him, but I find him extremely entertaining.
Tricycle Rider wrote:Uh-oh, I've done it again. And off into the sin bin I go!
(Dutch is a most peculiar language, I must say. They kept talking about Greipel and Zakarin, and that's about all I could make out of the conversation the Dutch commentators were having.)
CatsNK wrote:THANK YOU to everyone on this thread. I feel like every year the methodto watching Giro changes. I was all set to go to Sling or Bein this year and discovered a big 0. I've followed the advice here and am all set with the DVR feature now so I can record it during the day and watch when I get home from work. Couldn't have done it without the help here and can't imagine a May without the Giro!!! TYVM!
Nacho wrote:Do any of these viewing options/channels, like for instance Fubo, have Closed Captioning? I'm a bit hard of hearing, and I usually have CC on to supplement what I hear. I'd hate to buy any of these services and it not have CC. NBCSN doesn't show too many races here in the USA, but what they do show the commentators are followed by CC.
Nacho wrote:Thanks Carols for checking that out for me. I've been watching after the fact/race the "Last 1/2/3/4/5 kilometer" videos, from Eurosport, off of a Steephill link, and noticed they didn't have CC. So, thought I'd ask about what yall are watching before I do anything to get longer, and kosher, streams.
Tricycle Rider wrote:Oh dear, I've done it again! (And off into the sin bin I go, again.)
This time it was a Polish feed (at least I think it was some sort of Slav language, which I technically should understand), couldn't understand a word of it. But...
Which ever person had commentated this stage seemed very bored with it - don't know if it was the language, or the stage itself.
Was the stage really that boring?
Return to Professional road racing
Users browsing this forum: Alexandre B., AnatoleNovak, Bronstein, burning, Captain Sensible, fantomas, Forever The Best, gambass, Hedebooo, Hugo Koblet, IndianCyclist, King Of The Wolds, Logic-is-your-friend, Mayo from Mayo, Mayomaniac, Midnightfright, MrTea1976, Red Rick, Ruudz0r, search, TourOfSardinia and 164 guestsBack to top


text:
TORONTO - The Cuban men's soccer team came to Canada with 15 players. But it only had 11 when it played Canada in a World Cup qualifier.
Pressed on the issue after the game, Cuban coach Alexander Gonzalez was initially reluctant to discuss anything but soccer, however, he admitted through an interpreter that some players had left the team.
Gonzalez said he had a squad of 15 players when he left Cuba and that four had since left the team. One of those was sick, he added without elaborating.
Gonzalez lamented the departures.
"As with any Cuban sport team that travels around the world, they're all chasing the American dream," he said. "And it's difficult to try to keep the team together ... Obviously it's a difficult situation for the team and it's tough for me to talk about it."
Canada dressed 10 substitutes for the game. Cuba's bench, meanwhile, was empty other than for its coaches.
Canada, ranked 61st in the world, defeated No. 146 Cuba 3-0.


text:
Category 3 Lenses
or 4 payments of $13.99
Own it now, pay later
All eyes will be on you when you're wearing the stunningly, unique Bandwagon sunglasses by Le Specs
Ultra stylish and demanding of attention, Le Specs eyewear produces some of the most distinctive and attention-grabbing styles around. Featuring extremely sophisticated lines and styling, as well as retro inspired looks and fun, free colours, Le Specs produces sunglasses that both rattle many of the modern fashion world's trends, while still holding their own against many designer luxury brands. Gradually taking over the sunglass world, Le Specs is high end design at an extremely affordable price!
Dare to go where no one has gone before and be part of the Le Specs revival, sunglasses for beach bums, city slickers, the wild child and everyone in between!
Shop the biggest range of Le Specs Sunglasses online at Just Sunnies. The iconic Le Specs sunglasses brand is all about sexy styling that sets trends rather than following them, while staying true to the brands values. The Le Specs Eyewear name has always been known as a trendsetter in the sunglasses world, with inspiring new and retro styles reigniting their signature looks.
Le Specs offer a great collection of both men's and women's frames that continue to excite and impress. Polarised sunglasses are also available to shop, providing superior glare protection. Defined by the reinvention of classic shapes, Le Specs Sunglasses have forged a position in the eyewear marketplace as a leading youth driven, fashion forward brand. The inspiration for Le Specs sunglasses comes from the flea markets of Berlin, the music scene in Stockholm and the grunge streets of New York.
Utilizing the label's distinctive red, white and blue logo and jaw dropping sexy advertising, Le Specs commanded a powerful media presence in the 80's, enjoying an unprecedented level of brand recognition.
Le Specs sunglasses come with a soft snap top case and a microfribre cleaning cloth.
*Case may vary with sunglasses
Le Specs sunglasses have a 12-month warranty against manufacturers faults.
* General wear and tear is not covered under warranty
For more information about warranty click here:


text:
Businessweek.com calls attention to some Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland data that should make you feel a little better about the state of the U.S. education system. Cleveland Fed researchers Jonathan James and Christopher Vecchio examined the average freshman graduation rate, which is an estimate of the percentage of high school students who graduate within four years of beginning the ninth grade. And the numbers they found are striking. "During the 2009-10 school year, 78.2 percent of high school students got their diploma on time, up from 73.9 percent in 2002-03," according to the story. All ethnic groups have shown improvement. The performance of Hispanic students stands out, with a nearly 8 percentage point gain from two years earlier. The estimated graduation rate for black students was up nearly 5 percentage points over the same period. "The trend suggests that aggregate efforts such as the school accountability movement, the Bush administration's No Child Left Behind, the Obama administration's Race to the Top, and other initiatives are translating into progress," Businessweek.com notes. "This is positive news," the Cleveland Fed's Mr. James says. "It will establish a better starting point for increasing human capital." The business establishment, the story notes, "loves to complain about a lack of qualified workers. But guess what: Students are making investments in boosting their human capital — from high school to postsecondary education — and this will be a boon to enterprise when the economy gains genuine momentum and the job market tightens."
Editor's Choice
Class acts: More high school students earn their diplomas on time
Much to do: The deal to take American Greetings private is like a full-employment act for lawyers. Bloomberg reports that five law firms — Jones Day; Sullivan & Cromwell LLP; Willkie Farr & Gallagher LLP; Baker & Hostetler LLP and Latham & Watkins LLP — each worked on the $878 million deal. Jones Day is acting as legal counsel to the Weiss family, according to Bloomberg. The Jones Day deal team advising the family is led by Cleveland partner James Dougherty and includes partners Lyle Ganske in Cleveland and Robert Profusek in New York. Baker & Hostetler is legal adviser to American Greetings, with Cleveland/Chicago partner Robert Weible, and Cleveland partners John Gherlein and Kathleen O'Connor. We know how you feel: Speaking of American Greetings, The Wall Street Journal points out that the greeting card business "has seen better days, and American Greetings today is worth almost 65% less than it was at its peak in 1998." Like many media companies, The Journal says, American Greetings "was hit hard by the Internet, with customers finding new ways to share old sentiments like birthday or holiday greetings." Tech companies including Apple and Facebook "launched their own electronic greetings businesses, letting their customers send physical or electronic gifts and greetings on a birthday or anniversary." Taking the media industry comparison further, there's this, from the story: It is also a market that, at least in its paid form, is largely sticking with old-fashioned print products rather than trendy new digital offerings. Much like the newspaper industry, print is still where the money is: American Greetings still generates 89% of its revenue from cards and gift packaging. Its interactive business still accounts for just over 4% of revenue. Gifted: A Wall Street Journal feature looks at many accomplished people — Dr. Toby Cosgrove, head of the Cleveland Clinic among them — deal with dyslexia. The condition "makes reading difficult but has little to do with intelligence," the newspaper says. "Mounting evidence shows that many people with dyslexia are highly creative, out-of-the-box thinkers, and neuroimaging studies demonstrate that their brains really do think differently." Dr. Cosgrove tells The Journal that he relied on memorizing texts in medical school, and reading hasn't gotten easier for him. He says "he has never read a novel and told his staff he'd rather hear about any problems in person than read a report," according to the story. But he notes, "I frankly think dyslexia is a gift. If you are supported in school and your ego remains intact, then you emerge with a strong work ethic and a different view of the world." A whole new world: Advanced statistics are all the rage in baseball front offices and among fantasy league players, but The New York Times says the language of the movement — WAR, VORP and B.A.B.I.P. — is starting to catch on with radio and TV announcers. (The paper points out, helpfully, that the above acronyms stand for wins above replacement, value over replacement player and batting average on balls in play.) Many announcers, The Times notes, now come equipped with reams of data to inject into their broadcasts. But "some old-guard broadcasters have resisted adding obscure percentages and acronyms to their banter and game descriptions," according to the newspaper. Put the Cleveland Indians' Tom Hamilton in this group. Mr. Hamilton, 58, who is entering his 24th year as the radio voice of the Indians, tells The Times that he believes listeners would rather hear stories from the clubhouse than statistics from spreadsheets. "Nobody after a game is going to remember numbers you throw at them, but they might remember a story about a player," Mr. Hamilton says. Star power: It looks like the big-name cast is growing for "Draft Day," a sports comedy/drama that will be shot in Cleveland and feature Kevin Costner as the general manager of the Cleveland Browns. Variety reports that Jennifer Garner is in negotiations to co-star with Mr. Costner in the movie, which will be directed by Ivan Reitman. Ms. Garner would play Mr. Costner's secretary.
You also can follow me on Twitter for more news about business and Northeast Ohio.


text:
German GP 2008
Sunday Team Quotes
Felipe Massa (3rd): "It was a difficult race. Right from the beginning, Hamilton's pace seemed unbeatable and I understood that it would be very hard to beat him. I never had good grip and, in the final stages, I also had brake problems and was not even able to attack Piquet, whom I congratulate on the first podium of his career. We must try and understand why, this weekend, we have not been a match for our rivals. They have definitely improved, but I think this was more a case of us having taken a step backwards. However, we are still confident: we have the ability to get out of this situation, right from the next race."
Kimi Raikkonen (6th): "This was definitely not the kind of race we had been hoping for. We have struggled all weekend and we have to try and understand why. Usually, our race pace is always good, but today that was not the case, because I almost always suffered with a lack of grip: only in the final stages did the situation improve a little bit, but it was never enough to be competitive. We have a test in Jerez, where we will try and improve the car so as to arrive in Budapest in better shape. This is definitely not a crisis, but we have to study carefully the handling of the car to understand if we have taken the right road in terms of development."
Stefano Domenicali, Team Principal: "This was not a good day and there's no point denying it. Our rivals were stronger than us and we have to work out why, without however getting caught up in nebulous and superficial analysis. For the first time this season in a race, we did not have the pace we had expected to run at, with both Kimi and Felipe. We suffered constantly from a lack of grip and, in the final stages, Felipe's brakes were also overheating which complicated still further the management of his car. The Safety Car offered us the opportunity to give it another go and all things considered, I think we made the right choice in terms of strategy, but when your pace is inadequate, it is therefore difficult to get a good result. We have to work well over the coming days to react in the right manner to return to the level we were at just two races ago."
Luca Baldisserri, Head of Trackside Operations: "This weekend, to be honest, we were not competitive enough to fight for the win. Again today, we did not have the speed to go up against our main rivals. When the Safety Car came out, we opted for a double pit stop and I think that was the right decisions. Then in the final stages of the race, Felipe did not have the right grip level and furthermore, he had problems with his brakes which first prevented him from attacking Piquet and then from adequately fighting off a closing Hamilton. We have to carefully study our situation to try and understand how to return to being as quick as we had been up to a short time ago."
BMW Sauber
Nick Heidfeld (4th): "Coming fourth from 12th on the grid is a great result. Not making it into the top ten in qualifying meant we were free to choose our fuel load afterwards, and so we went for a rather long first stint. That's why I was able to stay out during the safety car period when almost everybody else was refuelling. That was certainly crucial as I was able to pull away as soon as the traffic was behind me. Before that I couldn't show my true speed as I never had a clear lap. The car was good and the fact that I set the fastest race lap proves it. In the end I was very close to Felipe, but still had no chance to overtake him. It was a good home race for me and I'm happy I could give something back to the fans who may have been disappointed by my qualifying performance yesterday."
Robert Kubica (7th): "It is difficult to be happy after a race like this. During the first half of the race I was able to match the pace of McLaren-Mercedes and Ferrari. Suddenly my car's pace was miles too slow. My tyres lost lots of grip, and perhaps this was because my tyres cooled down too much. We now have to analyse the data."
Dr. Mario Theissen, BMW Motorsport Director: "If you start from seventh and 12th on the grid and end up collecting seven points you can be very satisfied. Of course the safety car period influenced the race quite a lot. Due to that Robert lost his strong fourth place, whereas Nick profited from this. Neither of our drivers made any mistakes. On top of that Nick set the fastest lap, which makes me very happy for him. However, there is some work for us to do to get back to the front of the grid."
Willy Rampf, Technical Director: "This was an exciting and thrilling race for our team! Robert made a good start and was able to move up to fourth in the first corners. He was able to consolidate this position, but in the safety car period his strategy meant we had to bring him in for a pit stop. Nick was on a higher fuel load and, therefore, could stay out. When the Safety Car came in again, Nick drove several very fast laps and was able to make up time on his direct competitors. In addition, the pit crew did a perfect job which enabled him to also overtake Heikki Kovalainen in the pits. Robert was struggling with the heavy car and warming up the prime tyres properly, so as a result was not in a position to set the best possible lap times anymore. We can be pleased we scored seven championship points today under difficult circumstances."
Nelson Piquet (2nd): "I am obviously very happy! After qualifying yesterday I was thinking that my weekend was over, but we opted for an aggressive strategy in the race and the team made some great decisions when the safety car came out. Then I had to concentrate to keep my pace up and look after my tyres as much as possible towards the end of the race. I knew that Lewis was much faster than me, so I did not want to take any pointless risks. This second place today is a great reward for the whole team."
Fernando Alonso (11th): "That was a difficult race for me. I had a bad start and lost several positions. Then I was on the pace but it was difficult to recover. I think that we were simply out of luck today, but we must now look forward and concentrate on the next Grand Prix."
Pat Symonds, Executive Director of Engineering: "Today we were lucky, but I still believe we made our own luck and our decision to go long with Nelson paid off as the safety car came out at the ideal moment! Nelson's driving after that was impeccable. He was under pressure and did everything we asked of him. I'd like to congratulate him and hope this is the start of a better time for him. While Nelson had some luck today, it totally deserted Fernando. He had a difficult race and none of the breaks went his way, but we know Fernando always gives his best. Today's race will make him even more determined for Hungary."
Flavio Briatore, Managing Director: "Nelson had an amazing race. He proved to be very fast towards the end of the race and was able to remain strong under enormous pressure. He was not able to hold off Hamilton who was much faster, but he was able to defend his second place strongly. I am delighted for him and for the team who really deserve this result."
Nico Rosberg (10th): "Even though it's not great to go home without any points, it was a good race. It was a bit difficult at the beginning as I had a technical problem at the start which cost me a place. From then on I was pretty comfortable, and I was able to push hard when I had free track - the car felt good, but then with the safety car the order was mixed up quite a bit. Regardless, it was great to race here in front of the German fans, and the atmosphere was amazing. We now have a few races ahead of us where I am sure we can do well and our performance will improve."
Kazuki Nakajima (15th): "It was a difficult race for us today with something happening in every stint. First of all I lost a bit of time early on and I was stuck in the traffic for a long time. It would have also helped if the safety car had stayed out a bit longer so I could have made my stop. Then finally, in the last stint, I picked up some debris under the car which was causing bad understeer and I lost a place. Eventually, whatever it was under the car came free and the balance returned but by then it was too late."
Sam Michael, Technical Director: "It was an unrewarding race in terms of the results. With such a tight grid, it is very difficult to make progress once you are back in the pack regardless of strategy and obviously the safety car in the middle of race didn't really help matters, but that's just the way it is. We will now head back to the factory and prepare for the next race in Budapest."
Red Bull-Renault
David Coulthard (13th): "It was a poor start. Heidfeld ran wide in Turn one, which pushed me wide and off the circuit, so a lot of people passed me there. I was stuck behind Jenson (Button) for 13 laps or so, he always seemed to have better traction so it was difficult to have a big dive at the end of braking. I got past him, as well as Rosberg before that. Towards the end of the race, Rubens (Barrichello) got better traction off a Turn and moved over, I came back onto my line to take the corner. I guess he thought I wasn't going to do that, which is why he had his car there, but it didn't work out."
Mark Webber (DNF, Engine): "We knew it would be a tight race with the guys that were around us on the grid. I had a good fight with Vettel on the first lap and, as the race unfolded, there wasn't much between the cars. We know the weaknesses of our car here and we'll work on those before the next race. It was my first mechanical retirement this year; we'll have to check what caused it and make sure it doesn't happen again."
Christian Horner, Sporting Director: "An extremely disappointing race. Both drivers didn't have a fantastic first lap and lost positions. Thereafter, our strategy was looking reasonable. The pace car came at a pretty bad time for us and we had to pit both cars due to Glock's accident. Mark unfortunately collected some debris, which damaged the oil cooler and caused engine oil loss. That resulted in us retiring his car. With David, after problems on the first lap, he was making progress through the field, but was compromised by the pace car and was then was hit by Barrichello, which meant the end of his afternoon."
Fabrice Lom, Renault: "A very disappointing race with both cars out of the points and one retirement due to an oil leak. It was a bad day. Congratulations though to Nelson - it was a very good result for him."
Jarno Trulli (9th): "That was a disappointing race for me because we had high hopes of scoring points today. Everything was looking good early in the race but after our second stop, when we switched our strategy because of the safety car, it became really difficult. I was having problems with the balance. I struggled a lot and in the last 10 laps it was really tough. But I was in eighth place and fighting really hard to get a point. I was holding off Vettel but unfortunately I locked up the front and couldn't recover so I lost the position. After that I lost more pace and wasn't able to push as hard as I wanted."
Timo Glock (DNF, Accident):
Tadashi Yamashina, Team Principal: "For us the priority is that Timo is okay. At the moment it is too early to determine exactly what the cause of the incident was but of course we are investigating. He was doing a strong race and was looking set for another points finish so it was a real pity. Timo's accident brought out the safety car and that was a key point for Jarno, because he pitted and changed to prime tyres. He was not happy with the balance of the car after that and his pace suffered. Here as well we have to analyse more the reasons for this because, after the outstanding pace we showed earlier in the weekend, this was unexpected. It has been a difficult day but we must look forward and fight to have both cars in the points at the next race."
Toro Rosso-Ferrari
Sebastian Vettel (8th): "It was a tough race with a lot of fights but it was big fun. The first lap was hard and close. I tried to pass Kimi, but it didn't work out. I took some time to find a rhythm but I had a wonderful car and could run a great pace. I was disappointed when I saw the Safety Car as I was comfortably holding a points position, but we did the best we could in the situation. I fought to the end and although I was quicker than Jarno I could not pass and then he made a mistake, which brought me back to eighth place. Congratulations to everyone in the team. Eighth with no retirements, means we deserved to finish where we did and I am proud of that."
Sebastien Bourdais (12th): "I am happy with this result in terms of the pace I could run, but I was a bit unlucky with the Safety Car incident, as I knew it would involve me queuing in the pits behind Sebastian. I was able to keep up with Heidfeld in the first stint and the lap times were decent. The car worked better on the Option tyre. Overall, I had a strong race and kept pushing, hanging on to take twelfth. So now, I need to repeat this sort of performance and hopefully have some good luck to see it move me further up the order."
Franz Tost, Team Principal: "Vettel's best race to date. He got a good start passing Webber, running consistent lap times to stay ahead of him. The guys did a fantastic job in the pit stop as it got us ahead of Alonso. He fought very well against Alonso, in an entertaining fight. The Safety Car worked against us, as it meant Piquet got ahead of us, having stopped before it. From then on, Vettel defended his position in a fantastic way and deserved this point in his home race. Bourdais also did a great job. Towards the end, he was closing the gap on Alonso and might even have passed him with a couple more laps. Well done to the whole team for a good day's work."
Jenson Button (17th): "A frustrating race today and it is obviously disappointing to finish in 17th position. We pitted early for my first stop to prevent Rosberg overtaking and I lost a lot of time there to both him and Rubens because we had no performance on the prime tyre after my stop. The traction was really poor and I was losing so much time out of the corners. When the safety car came out, we immediately pitted for tyres to enable us to switch back to the option tyre as soon as possible and unfortunately that meant that although I was a lap down, I was not able to overtake the leader. I'm very disappointed, particularly after a stronger qualifying performance than in recent races, but we'll learn from our mistakes today."
Rubens Barrichello (DNF, Damage): "The race began well today as I gained a couple of positions at the start and our strategy was to run as long as possible. Unfortunately we didn't have the pace to be competitive and we were really struggling with the traction. Our strategy was good but if we had been able to run for just another few laps it would have made my day, just as it did for Piquet Jr. Congratulations to him on his podium. The incident with Coulthard which ended my race was just unlucky. I was trying to force him to take a wider line on the outside through turn nine so that on turn 10 I would be able to come up the inside, but unfortunately he didn't see me on the inside and we touched. The team could see at the stop that there was too much damage to the front bargeboards to continue and that ended my race."
Ross Brawn, Honda Team Principal: "Well unfortunately we weren't very quick today. At Jenson's first stop, when we put on his second set of tyres, we lost all performance, which was unexpected. We lost a lot of grip and started to fall down the field. So when the safety car came out following Glock's accident, we took the opportunity to change the tyres back to the options. We didn't struggle quite so badly with Rubens' car but he needed to push through the field because he had one more pitstop due. Unfortunately he collided with Coulthard and the resulting damage ended his race. So a disappointing outcome this weekend. We have a four-day test in Jerez next week when we will be evaluating our new rear suspension, which we are optimistic about. We also have the latest update to our aero package, so I think those two elements combined should enable us to make a step forward in Hungary."
Force India-Ferrari
Giancarlo Fisichella (14th): "In the first part of the race I was not comfortable with the car as I was struggling with the grip and it was understeering and oversteering with some wheelspin, but then at the end of the run it was getting better. On the soft tyre it was a step forward. The team made a good move for me with the strategy under the safety car and I could make up some places after I pitted and the others went in. I could have finished perhaps one place higher up, but unfortunately I locked up through turn eight and lost a position, but all the same it's nice to get a finish and to be racing again."
Adrian Sutil (16th): "I'm a bit disappointed as I think we had a good race pace but didn't ultimately get anything out of it. We lost some time on the first pit stop and then with the safety car we couldn't pit at the right moment and then couldn't catch up again so I lost 10 seconds or so. In my last stint something didn't feel right in my car, so we will have to investigate what happened, so it was not the best race, but at least we finished it."
Dr. Vijay Mallya, Team Principal: "It was a tough race to call this time out as the safety car period came at a critical moment. For Giancarlo, it worked to his advantage, but unfortunately for Adrian it dropped him down the order. This is - as we always say - racing and sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. What I am however clearly very pleased about is that we were racing other cars and staying with them, plus our reliability was very good. This clearly bodes well for the future, and if we succeed in testing and then introducing our new gearbox then we could finish in front of some people on merit."
Mike Gascoyne, Chief Technical Officer: "After a disappointing qualifying yesterday, once again we had a better race pace and performance. Obviously the strategy was dominated by the safety car and we were able to use it to gain some places. Adrian in the first part of the race had a better pace, but unfortunately the way the safety car period panned out meant he dropped behind Giancarlo but, even so, his pace was excellent throughout and he deserved more. Giancarlo struggled more with the balance but did it well to bring it home, but overall we did the best we could do with our car here today. Unfortunately Giancarlo was handed a 25 second penalty for We now we have to move on and look forward to the test next week where we will use the seamless shift gearbox and can look forward to another step in the races to come."
Lewis Hamilton (1st): "I nailed it this afternoon: when the team told me I had to build a 23-second gap in just seven laps, I knew I had to drive over the limit - and I did. But I knew we had the best car this weekend and felt comfortable pushing hard to make up the gap. In the final stint, I had to work for today's win - when the Safety Car came out, I questioned whether I should pit but I trusted the team to make the best decision on strategy. It didn't quite work out - but I knew we had the pace in the car to keep pushing and want to say a big thank-you to Heikki, who realised I was quicker. I was able to slipstream past Felipe and then thought my work was done; then I had to do it all again to get past Nelson. But I made a couple of textbook moves to get past them both. Everybody in this team has worked so hard to make this victory happen. We mustn't grow complacent but must feel assured that our efforts are being rewarded. We couldn't have asked for more today."
Heikki Kovalainen (5th): "A very difficult race for me. I had a good start and almost managed to pass Felipe but, unfortunately, my speed was not good enough, and I couldn't make the tyres work to their best. The Safety Car period didn't help me either, and I lost positions during my pitstop. Then I lost time behind Kubica. However, I managed to overtake him again two laps later and, from then on, it was a rather uneventful race. Fifth position was not what I had hoped to achieve here, but I am now looking forward to the Hungarian Grand Prix, where I will try my hardest to fight for a podium finish."
Ron Dennis, Team Principal: "Today's victory topped-off another magnificent weekend for the Vodafone McLaren Mercedes team. I stress the word 'team' because our win was very much a team effort. The deployment of the Safety Car presented us with a difficult decision: should we or should we not bring Lewis in for a pitstop? We decided that, since he still had quite a lot of fuel on board, we would leave him out until lap 50. We'd expected the track to be cleared of debris a little faster than it was, which would have allowed the Safety Car to come in a bit earlier. As a result, Lewis was unable to rejoin the race in the lead. He responded majestically, however, and scored another fabulous win. Heikki was troubled by oversteer in his first stint, which we attempted to correct at his first pit stop, but he still struggled a little in his next stint. That being the case, he wasn't able to match Lewis's pace today. But it's the mark of both his professionalism and his sportsmanship that, aware of his situation relative to Lewis's, he made it relatively straightforward for Lewis to pass him. As I've said before, Heikki's time will come. In difficult circumstances he raced tremendously well today - his overtaking manoeuvre on Robert Kubica was just sensational - and once again he showed a winner's grit and determination. It's a joy to have two drivers who are not only super-competitive but also super-cooperative."
Norbert Haug, Mercedes Motorsport Director: "A sensational victory for Lewis with some great overtaking - he was in a class of his own in the team's second consecutive home Grand Prix. His speed was better than I had ever dreamed of. After we let him continue during the Safety Car period we saw two of the most exciting overtaking manoeuvres of the championship. I am really happy about this convincing win - thank-you Lewis. I also want to thank everybody in the team for doing a great job; not only in the garage but also to everybody on the marketing, press and organisational side. Finally, I want to thank all our friends and guests who enjoyed a fantastic day at the Mercedes grandstand where they all saw a lot of action and enjoyed the great atmosphere."


text:
Ian Holstrom
Campus Involvement
- Major: Economics
- Minor: French Language
- Honor Board Chair, Student Government Association 2009-2012
- Study Abroad: American Business School, Paris, France Spring 2011
- Omicron Delta Epsilon (International Honor Society in Economics) President 2011-2012
- Pi Delta Phi (National French Honor Society) President 2010-2011
- Peer Tutor, Office of Academic Skills (French and Economics)
Hometown? New Hope, Pennsylvania
High School? The Solebury School


text:
After all the leader of the main Shiite State nation in the world is visit Al Azhar Mosque , the biggest Sunni institution in the world. Again in any other time it can be great moment to celebrate it and even start a new page to bridge between the two main sects of Islam but it comes in extremely bad time.
Nevertheless the real star of the visit was not Ahmadinejad but rather Ahmed El Tayyib , the grand Sheikh of Al Azhar Mosque. The Upper Egyptian Sheikh began to play a bigger political role week after week !!
Today he hoped that Iran works to stop the war in Syria , to give rights to the Sunnis and Ahwaz in Iran and not to spread the Shiism in the Arab world plus to respect Bahrain and Gulf's sovereignty and to make the Shiites stop their verbal attack against Prophet Mohamed's companions.
Of course there is no word on the rights of Shiites in Egypt !!
Last week the man sponsored an initiative proposed by Pro-revolutionary youth to stop violence in Egypt attended by all political powers and parties and church representatives that boycott the president Morsi's national dialogue.
Anyhow some Egyptians are pissed from Ahmadinejad and the victory signs he kept doing in Al Azhar for some reason I ignore !!
|El Tayyib does not like it either !!
Here is what the man from Tehran said at Al Azhar


text:
Renova currently operates 294MW of wind power. It is building another 386MW of wind projects in the north-eastern state of Bahia, where the new projects it plans to offer at the auction would also be located.
Brazil's total installed capacity is 2.8GW. The total amount of wind projects registered for the 23 August auction is around 16GW.
Renova's first wind farm, the 294MW phase one of the 680MW Alto Sertão project, has been in operation for about a year. The second stage should start operations by the beginning of March in 2014.
Due to problems in transmission connections in the region, Renova requested that power regulator Aneel change the start date from September 2013 to March 2014 to avoid fines and regulatory punishments.
In response to this, Becker said: "We will lose some revenue because of this, but it will be small compared to whole 20-year power supply contract for the project."
Last week, Energetica de Minas Gerais, Brazil's second-biggest power utility, agreed to invest BRL 1.41 billion ($621 million) in Renova.
However, Renova recently announced a loss of BRL 5.8 million for the second quarter of 2013 compared with a loss of BRL 1.9 million a year ago.


text:
Free Vicentas Windows 98/Me/NT/2000/XP/7/8 Version 4.0.620 Full Specs
From Vicentas:
Cretica Invoice is a user-friendly invoicing program for small businesses and organizations. User-friendliness is at the core of Cretica Invoice, without cutting back on features. Cretica Invoice has all the features you expect of an invoicing software. Cretica Invoice separates from similar programs by way of effectiveness, allowing mass-invoicing to many clients in a matter of seconds, while remaining in full control. You will be notified once invoices reach their due date, giving you full oversight og the phases of invoicing. The different reports generated will also help you keep control. Cretica Invoice has a built in backup feature, as well as functions for importing and exporting data.
show reviews


text:
Photo: sxsw via YouTube
Nate Silver has built one of the best models out there. It's accurate, consistent, and totally scientific. One advantage of being totally scientific is that his model can be replicated.
Silver, over the past five years, has explained in depth how his model actually works.
Looking through that, we now have a step-by step-process on how to be Nate Silver.
Here's what you'll need:
- A copy of Microsoft Excel
- A definitive source of campaign finance data and election data
- A vast polling database with 15 years of impeccably accurate information.
So the first of these supplies can be picked up at your local computer store and several online resources.
The last one may be difficult to find — as early as 2010 Silver was working from a database of "4,670 distinct polls from 264 distinct pollsters covering 869 distinct electoral contests" — but once you have it ready to go you're all set to start your FiveThirtyEight model.
Step One: Collect all the recent polls that you can find from within a state. We'll label each of these polls by a variable like P1, P2, P3, or just generally speaking Pi
Step Two: Figure out the poll weights. Now, we need to find the weighting for each of the polls — w1, w2, w3, or more generally wi — and that's not exactly an easy task. Each wi is made up of three different values. The "recency" of the poll (we'll call this Ri), the sample size of the poll (Ni for each Pi) and the Pollster Rating for the company that did the poll (Qi for each Pi).
- Ri is expressed as an exponential decay function. The older the poll gets, the lower this number gets. If the same polling company releases a newer poll, Ri also goes down. We know that in 2008, the Ri was expressed at the "half-life" of the poll.
- Ni has to do with the sample size. The more people that the poll Pi sampled, the higher Ni gets. There are diminishing returns, though, so the rate that Ni grows slows as the sample size gets larger and larger.
- The Pollster rating requires the use of that massive database of polling we mentioned earlier. This analyses the accuracy of the poll in retrospect. Better pollsters have bigger values of Qi.
Step Three: Get Qi. The Pollster rating, Qi, has to be determined for each pollster before we can move forward. The ways Silver does this is rather complex, but the pollster ratings are the signature element of his model so this is important.
The way Sliver goes about developing these ratings is outlined in this blog post from 2010, but here's the gist:
The point is to see how a pollster does compared to the mean. It's much easier to call a presidential contest (avg. error 2.8 points) than a gubernatorial primary (avg. error 7.8 points).
First, Run a regression for races where each pollster has a dummy variable. Other variables should include recency for each poll, sample size, and dummy variables abut the race. The subsequent weight that is found for each pollster dummy value is the measured skill and is called "raw score."
Next, we need to figure out a value called the Reversion parameter. If "n" is the number of previous polls from the pollster in the sample:
reversionparameter = 1 – (0.06 * sqrt(n))
Next, we regress these raw score ratings toward the mean to account for inherent luck and variance and noise. Pollsters in the National Council on Public Polls or the AAPOR Transparency initiative are considered better than non-members
Here are the values of a variable called "groupmean" that we'll need for the final calculation:
- NCPP or the AAPOR Transparency Initiative members: -0.50.
- Polls by telephone: +0.26
- Polling by means of the Internet: +1.04.
Here's how we get the adjusted score:adjscore = (rawscore * (1 – reversionparameter)) + (groupmean * reversionparameter)
Negative numbers are good pollsters, positive ones are bad. Finally, Silver calculates Pollster-induced Error. PIE= 2 + adjscore. The minimum PIE is 0, and for our purposes Qi is PIE.
Step Four: Get the weighted polling average. Silver doesn't say how he combines these values Ri, Ni, and Qi to form Wi, and by now that's most of what remains of his "secret sauce." We'll just multiply them.
Now, we have a weight Wi for each poll Pi. Take the average for each state of all the weighted polls. Each pollster has a "House Effect," or a demonstrable partisan skew as compared to the running poll average. For many, this isn't a major factor, but the House effect for each poll (Hi) has to be factored in.
When n is the number of polls in the average, the Weighted Polling Average is equal to ∑[(Wi•Pi)+Hi)/ n.
Next, do a national trend line adjustment to the weighted polling average. Nationally, if the generic Democrat has lost two points, factor that into the Weighted Polling Average.
Finally, do a likely voter adjustment to the likely-voter adjusted weighted polling average. Nate's version is simple, just add a certain percentage to the party that is usually expected to get more votes by the expected percentage.
This, incidentally, is the Five 30 Eight Weighted Polling average you'll see in each Senate race and state presidential race.
Step Five: The FiveThirtyEight Regression. Silver creates one additional "poll" that gets averaged into the mix.
This "poll" is actually the result of a regression that brings in the major ground effects of the race — candidate experience, partisan tilt of the state, incumbency stats, et cetera.
Silver has already figured out the coefficients based on long time study of prior races, like the marginal quantitative advantage that a Governor has over a House Representative in a Senate election.
You'll have to figure that out on your own by running regressions of historical data, just like Silver presumably did. Once you do figure out those coefficients (A, B, C…), push them into a regression that looks something like this:
LR = Ax1 + Bx2 + Cx3 + Dx4 + Ex5 + Fx6
LR is the result of this poll, and the xi values correspond to these variables:
- x1, the partisan voting index of the state. This is probably taken from Cook Political Report, and is a number describing the average margin of victory for a generic Republican candidate over a generic Democrat. In Virginia, for example, a generic Republican would beat a generic Democrat by 1 point, so the PVI would be 1.
- x2, the Party Identification in the state. This value compares the number of registered Dems to the number of registered GOP members.
- x3, a number (or numbers) describing fundraising data for each candidate
- x4, a binary variable for incumbency.
- x5, a number describing the approval rating of an incumbent, if there is one.
- x6, a series of dummy variables describing "stature." For senators and governors this is 3, for representatives, attorneys general and big-city mayors this is 2, for State-level offices this is 1, for no prior experience this is 0.
LR then goes into the average as a poll. It's weighted as a well-regarded poll, with a weight of 0.6. Once factored into the average, this becomes the FiveThirtyEight State Fundamentals snapshot. This is known hereinafter as the "projected vote split."
Step Six: Error analysis. The error for the snapshot projection is determined from variables based on prior FiveThirtyEight projections. Here are the ones that Silver specifically refers to as important:
- The error is higher in races with fewer polls.
- The error is higher in races where the polls disagree with one another.
- The error is higher when there are a larger number of undecided voters.
- The error is higher when the margin between the two candidates is lopsided.
- The error is higher the further one is from Election Day.
After finishing this, we have two statistics: The projected vote split and the standard error.
Step Seven: Prepare for simulation.
So now, we want to run around 100,000 simulations to figure out what happens next.
We have projected vote split and standard error for each of the 50 states for our model.
We need to split up the error into two types: National Error and Local Error. We know total error from Step Seven when we calculated the standard error.
National error is calculated from a historical analysis of poll changes between the date of the analysis and election day as well as general changes, we'll call this NE.
Here's the relationship between Local, National, and Total error:
Local Error = √ [(Total Error)2 — (National Error)2]
Step Eight: Simulate Once. Do you have Excel ready? Great. We now calculate values for Local and National error based on a normal distribution, using Microsoft Excel's NORMINV(rand(), mu , sigma) function.
For national error, the value of mu is equal to the observed NE and sigma is equal to the standard deviation observed when calculating NE.
In each simulation, NE is the same for each state. But, in east state we calculate local error.
- To calculate Total Error, run NORMINV with mu equal to to the standard error developed in Step Six for each state and the related sigma.
- National Error comes from NE.
Then, plug these values into the Local Error formula to get local error
So now, you have a row in excel with (a) National error and (b) 50 local errors, one for each state. Take the Local Error for each state and combine it with the related projected vote split that you got in step six. This is this simulation's result, state by state
Step Nine: Repeat step eight 100,000 times, and aggregate.
That's the first simulation. Now, do the same thing 100,000 times. In each simulation, you'll find out which party won which states.
You can then use this to figure out the electoral vote count in each simulation. Once you have 100,000 simulated electoral vote counts, average them. This is your FiveThirtyEight projection.
For each state, you can figure out the average margin of victory. This will show you the odds for each state. You can also program a row to figure out which state was the first to push someone over 270, which will allow you to calculate the Tipping Point states.
Now, the key thing to becoming Nate Silver is this: Make sure to do this every day for years on end and add insightful daily commentary responding to different changes in the model that you notice after coding for hours on end. Once you manage that, you can contact Mr. Sulzberger and ask when to pick up your paycheck.
Now see five statistics problems that will change the way you see the world >
Business Insider Emails & Alerts
Site highlights each day to your inbox.
Follow Business Insider Australia on Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn, and Instagram.