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Outlook report
Economic and industry-specific conditions
In calendar year 2018, the pace of global economic growth is set to remain virtually intact. Current forecasts range from 3.1 percent (World Bank, Global Economic Prospects, January 2018) to 3.9 percent (International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook, January 2018), slightly above the projections for 2017.
The economies of the leading industrial nations will probably grow at a similar rate to 2017, although a slightly lower growth rate is anticipated in Japan in particular. Since the commodities prices stabilized in 2017, the economic output in developing and emerging markets should continue to rise. Following an average increase in economic output in these countries of 4.7 percent in 2017, a growth rate of 4.9 percent is anticipated for 2018. For the members of this group that have suffered crises in recent years, namely Brazil and Russia, positive economic growth is expected to continue following the recovery in 2017.
Since the OPEC states agreed to limit oil production in the second half of 2016, the oil price increased and therefore fluctuated between USD 45 and 67 per barrel during 2017. It is assumed that the crude oil price will stagnate at about USD 58 per barrel in 2018.
Forecast economic growth in selected destinations worldwide
In %
For the eurozone, growth of 2.2 percent is expected in 2018. This increase in economic output is based on the continued strength of private consumption, the positive investment dynamic, and increasing exports. The relatively strong global economy and the falling unemployment rates throughout the eurozone are also bolstering this development. However, the growth in the eurozone is still clouded with a certain degree of uncertainty because the outcome of the Brexit negotiations is still unclear. Even so, the uncertainties regarding 2018 are expected to be relatively low because the formal exit of the United Kingdom is not due until March 2019.
Forecast economic growth in selected destinations throughout Europe
In %
Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook, January 2018
The increase in economic output in the Federal Republic of Germany will, at 2.3 percent, be somewhat lower in 2018 than in the previous year. Nevertheless, the fundamental growth dynamic is unchanged. The early indicators for economic growth in the Federal Republic are currently reaching an extremely high level. For example, the ifo Business Climate Index stands at 117.2 and the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index at 17.4 points.
The upturn in the Federal Republic stems from a broad base and should therefore also continue in 2018. Private consumption (2018: 1.8 percent) will make a crucial contribution to growth as in the previous years. This is also indicated by the GfK Consumer Climate Index which is remaining constant at a high level. It currently stands at 10.8 points. Given the current strong increase in construction investments, growth will probably reach a slightly lower level in 2018 than in the previous year (2018: 2.6 percent). The investments in plant and equipment (2018: 5.1 percent) and exports (2018: 4.5 percent) are expected to gather pace considerably.
The general conditions in Bavaria and the region around the airport mean that further strong growth in transportation demand can be expected at Munich Airport. According to the results of the regionalized population projection by the Bavarian State Office for Statistics, the number of people living in Bavaria, especially around Munich, will grow in the period up to 2035. The population of Upper Bavaria will rise by 11.5 percent. The Prognos Future Atlas also shows optimum future opportunities for the regions mentioned. Driven by growing prosperity and an increasing population, the trend in the volume from Munich Airport's core catchment area was positive in the last two years in particular. This trend is expected to continue in future.
The global aviation market will continue to grow. The Airports Council International (ACI) assumes an average annual growth rate in the global passenger volume of 6.5 percent for the year 2018. The Asia/Pacific market provides the largest contribution to growth, followed by the European market. The annual average growth rate for airfreight for the same period stands at 7.6 percent worldwide. An annual growth of 2.3 percent is forecast for aircraft movements. Again, the majority of the growth will be attributed to the regions of Europe and Asia/Pacific.
The German Airports Association (ADV) is also optimistic about the future. With expected passenger growth of 4.2 percent, an increase in flight movements of 1.0 percent, and an increase in transported freight of 5.1 percent, 2018 looks like another successful fiscal year for German commercial airports.
Forecast course of business
The Executive Board of Munich Airport has positive expectations of traffic volumes in 2018. The number of passengers should increase again by circa 3 percent and therefore reach around 46 million. The aircraft movements are expected to reach roughly the same level as 2017.
It is assumed that it will be possible to compensate to a large extent for the connections lost by the insolvencies of Air Berlin and Niki in 2018 through other airlines. The Executive Board therefore anticipates a neutral development in traffic figures as customer demand will persist and will largely be covered by other airlines. It is assumed that the negative effects from the insolvencies of Air Berlin and Niki will essentially be more than compensated for by 2019, meaning that the medium-term development of Munich Airport should not be impaired.
The reason for the growth in passenger volume is not only the registration of new connections, but also a sustained growth in transfer passengers and the increasing utilization of the seats available. The majority of the growth is contributed by the Lufthansa Group – partly due to the new stationing of several Airbus A380-type wide-bodied aircraft and the additions to the still young Eurowings fleet.
In addition to the forecast positive trend in traffic, the increase in air traffic charges of 2.6 percent implemented on January 1, 2018 in accordance with the master agreement on charges will lead to a rise in Aviation revenue.
Due to the Air Berlin insolvency, it is assumed that the revenue from ground handling services will decline as it is currently expected that the airlines that take over the Air Berlin business will process their ground handling services with service providers from outside the Group.
The forecast growth in passengers for 2018 will also have a positive impact as a rule on non-aviation sales revenue.
With regard to the retail trade, Munich Airport expects additional positive effects from concept changes, conversion measures, and new openings, as well as the traffic-related sales growth. The airport is therefore forecasting an extremely positive performance in this area.
The revenue from the Catering and Hotel division are expected to be slightly above the level of 2017. It will be possible to compensate for reduced demand from major hotel customers and declines caused by conversion work through increased sales arising from the passenger growth.
With regard to revenue from rental and leasing, it is assumed that it will be possible to compensate almost entirely for the loss of proceeds due to the Air Berlin insolvency with positive effects from the passenger growth and the rental of previously vacant premises.
The passenger growth in 2018 is partly due to higher transfer passenger figures and a growing low-cost segment. The Parking division only benefits to a limited extent from both of these effects, so the growth in this division will be relatively moderate.
The revenue from advertising is growing. The persistently challenging market environment in Terminal 1 is being countered by generating additional revenue with new digital advertising spaces and higher sponsorship income. The performance is more positive in Terminal 2.
Other revenue is also developing well. Increasing consulting revenue and the expansion of lounge activities in Terminal 1 are particularly worth mentioning.
Overall, Munich Airport anticipates a moderate increase in revenue of about 2 percent.
The trend toward higher cost of materials due to the increasing need to refurbish, convert, and optimize existing real estate will continue in fiscal year 2018. Munich Airport will also press ahead with its projects to develop real estate. Based on the traffic growth, the cost of materials in the Non-Aviation division will increase in line with revenue. On the other hand, the expenses for subcontractors for ground handling services at Berlin-Tegel – caused by the insolvency of Air Berlin – will fall considerably.
The Executive Board expects a further slight increase in personnel expenses as a consequence of increases in the collective pay rates. The workforce will essentially remain at the same level as in 2017.
The other expenses will increase in 2018, partly due to higher audit, consulting, and project services and increased expenses for advertising and public relations. Various other measures or unpredictable factors are anticipated, in some cases arising from the loss of the Air Berlin business.
In contrast, it is expected that depreciation and amortization will fall in 2018, which should help to improve the overall result. This is due to the fact that a series of fixed assets will be omitted from the depreciation over the whole year for the first time after a 25-year period of use.
A deterioration in the financial results is expected on balance. On the one hand, the interest expenses for loans to shareholders will increase because the Executive Board anticipates a hike in the underlying base rate as a result of further general increases in the market interest rates. On the other hand, Munich Airport assumes that the other financial result (profits/losses from financial instruments) will fall. In contrast, Munich Airport anticipates a reduction in the interest expenses based on the valuation of financial liabilities resulting from interests in partnerships.
In total, the Executive Board expects a change in EBT for the Group ranging from -4.0 through -10.0 percent.
Forecast financial and non-financial key performance indicators
|EBT in T€
|CO2 reductions in tonnes
|Passenger Experience Index
The PCA systems installed at Munich Airport will gradually be phased into normal operation. This will lead to significant reductions in CO2. Additional efficiency measures are designed to reduce energy consumption, especially for lighting, air conditioning, in IT, and in buildings and facilities.
In 2018, Munich Airport will further intensify the continuous improvement measures with regard to passenger satisfaction by strengthening and expanding the Passenger Experience Management. For example, it is planned to overhaul the service training concept and to further strengthen the service and hospitality training. In order to improve passenger satisfaction, the modernization of the toilets in the non-public area of all modules in Terminal 1 and the toilet renovations in Terminal 2 will be completed in 2018. A new lining system with integrated, automatic boarding-card checks should ensure a more convenient lining procedure for passengers on the one hand and, on the other hand, a better utilization of space and an overall improvement in the process.
With regard to the net assets and financial position, the Executive Board expects a positive free cash flow for 2018 despite the high planned outflow for investments in major projects for the expansion of the airport – even though the absolute level will decrease compared to 2017. Examples of these planned major projects are the new construction of an office building and the ground management at AirSite West, the partial renewal of the district heating network, the infrastructural reorganization in the southern development belt, and the S-Bahn railway tunnel for the «Erdinger Ringschluss» project.
On the assets side of the consolidated balance sheet, the planned investments will exceed ongoing depreciation and lead to an increase in non-current assets. Thanks to the extensive presumed retention of net income for 2018, equity will increase on the equity and liabilities side of the balance. It is planned to reduce liabilities through further repayments of the loans. A contrary development and therefore an increase in liabilities will arise due to an increase in investment activities.
Risks and opportunities report
Risk management system
The Executive Board of FMG and all subsidiaries and affiliated companies is responsible for the early detection and prevention of risks that jeopardize the continuity of Munich Airport and the investments. Group Management has overall responsibility for an effective risk management system and lays the essential foundation for it by communicating and defining corporate strategy and targets. It formulates specifications for the risk management process and the organizational structure of the risk management system.
The aim of the risk management system is to identify events and developments that may have a negative impact on the achievement of strategic and operational targets in good time and develop suitable countermeasures. It takes account of all aspects of entrepreneurial activity – economic as well as environmental and social.
The risk management guideline specifies the general principles of risk management in the Group as well as the tasks and responsibilities of the function holders involved in risk management. The guideline is based on the internationally recognized «COSO ERM» (Committee of Sponsoring Organisations of the Treadway Commission – Enterprise Risk Management) framework model.
The Risk Management Committee acts as an additional supporting management, control, and supervisory body within the risk management system. As the highest ranking risk management body, it is directly subordinate to the Executive Board and consists of the Chief Financial and Infrastructure Officer, the heads of the Aviation, Commercial Activities, and Real Estate divisions, the heads of the Legal Affairs, Committees, Compliance and Environment, Corporate Development, Group Controlling and Corporate Investment Management, Group Security, and Corporate Communications corporate divisions, and the risk manager. The head of Compliance is involved in the Risk Management Committee as a guest. The task of the Risk Management Committee is to analyze the risks from a Group perspective and to monitor the effectiveness of countermeasures. It provides support with the development of the risk management system as well as risk identification, assessment, and control. The Risk Management Committee meets quarterly and agrees the risk report, which is subsequently presented to the Executive Board and the shareholders.
The risk management process comprises the following steps. A coordination and communication platform has been established to provide system support for this process.
Identification and communication of risks
All divisional managers and Chief Executive Officers of subsidiaries and affiliated companies are responsible for the identification and assessment of risks. The coordination, administration, documentation, and forwarding of all risk-related information is carried out by the respective risk manager in the respective divisions. The risk manager checks the divisions' risk reports for plausibility and compliance with the Group-wide standards for risk assessment. He or she combines the divisions' individual reports in a risk report, taking account of materiality for the Group, and reports quarterly to the Executive Board and shareholders. Risks that jeopardize the Group's existence that have been identified for the first time must also be reported to the Executive Board on an ad-hoc basis.
As a basis for dealing with risks responsibly, each individual employee is involved in managing risks throughout the company. Each employee is responsible for eliminating risks in his area and reporting indications of existing risks to his manager without delay.
Assessment of risks
Systematic risk assessment allows the company to determine the extent to which individual risks jeopardize the fulfillment of Munich Airport's corporate goals and strategies and which risks may possibly threaten its existence. The factors «expected loss» and «likelihood/frequency of occurrence» are presented in a two-dimensional risk matrix for this purpose. The expected loss describes the impact on profits that can be expected if the loss event occurs. The likelihood of occurrence specifies the level of probability that the loss event will occur. In the case of events that recur over time, the company works with the frequency with which they occur. The assessment first takes place without measures to limit risk being considered (for gross risks, see the section «Risks»). Subsequently, the risks are assessed after risk-minimizing measures are initiated or implemented (for net risks, see the section «Risks»).
Dealing with risk
Starting from the risk analysis, appropriate countermeasures for dealing with risk are specified in line with corporate strategy and economic aspects. The strategies for managing risk include: controlling, insuring, minimizing, eliminating and passing on. The risk officers have the task of specifying and implementing countermeasures to manage risks in the respective affected division.
Risk monitoring
The risk manager monitors the effectiveness of risk management continuously. Risks are also monitored separately by Internal Audit.
Compliance management system
Compliance covers compliance with all airport-related laws, specifications and regulations, national and international rules and standards as well as in-house rules and guidelines. Munich Airport has established a Group-wide compliance management system, which encompasses all organizational provisions ensuring compliance with the aforementioned rules.
The Compliance department submits reports on the current status of the compliance management system to the Executive Board on a regular basis and to the Supervisory Board on an annual basis.
Compliance risks are also communicated as part of the risk reporting to the Executive Board and shareholders if internal thresholds are exceeded. Regular dialog takes place between Risk Management and Compliance.
Identifying and minimizing compliance risks
The Compliance department prepares the compliance risk analysis with input from the divisions and combines it with the subsidiaries' compliance risk analyses every year.
Compliance risks are assessed in the same way as in the risk management process. Once the compliance risk analysis has been carried out, the Executive Board is notified of the results in a report.
The annual Compliance report to the Supervisory Board of FMG also includes the results of the compliance risk report. If there is an elevated loss potential and concomitant high probability of occurrence despite all the countermeasures taken, a detailed description is provided in the report.
In respect of 2017, there were no elevated compliance risks after the countermeasures taken were considered.
Preventing corruption
The compliance guidelines and the guidelines covering gifts and invitations support managers and employees in ensuring legally compliant and ethical behavior at the workplace. They are published on the Intranet and are therefore available to all employees. The guidelines also reference other guidelines with which employees must comply, thus for example ensuring compliance with public procurement law with regard to procurement and contracting processes, data protection, and information security. These ensure that processes and procedures are transparent and traceable, both internally and externally. In contracting and tendering procedures, Munich Airport requires bidders to submit a declaration of commitment stating that they will undertake everything necessary to preclude corruption. Compliance failures are liable to sanctions, such as exclusion from the contracting process.
The position of anti-corruption officer is exercised by the head of the Compliance department. There were no confirmed cases of corruption in 2017.
Communication and training
A key task of the Compliance department is to train and advise employees and managers in compliance matters as a preventative measure to stop compliance breaches from occurring.
Group compliance regularly provides training and publishes information to ensure that all employees and managers are familiar with the guidelines and any updates or amendments to them. Every year they must provide their signature to confirm that they have read the compliance documentation.
In 2017, some 61 managers of the Munich Airport Group took part in the three-hour training module on compliance as part of the Leadership Excellence Program. In addition to the legal fundamentals and the responsibilities of managers, this also covers Munich Airport Group's specific guidelines on compliance and the prevention of corruption. A total of 497 people have received training since the module started at the end of 2013. Participation in compliance training is documented.
The Executive Board and Supervisory Board deal with compliance issues at regular intervals.
Electronic whistle-blower system
Through an electronic whistle-blower system, the Business Keeper Monitoring System (BKMS®), Group employees, business partners, and customers can report behavior potentially damaging to our organization. People inside the Group and outside can also contact the Compliance department by other means of communication (telephone, e-mail, face-to-face discussions) if they wish to draw attention to compliance infringements and need advice. Tender documents inform potential bidders of the possibility of using the BKMS® should compliance infringements be suspected.
Data protection
Munich Airport's data protection officer is also assigned organizationally to the Compliance department but conducts his job independently and reports directly to the Executive Board. Initial training courses provided to new employees and apprentices, along with periodic onward training for employees in data privacy law, have helped raise awareness of statutory data protection requirements. Specialized, individual advice is also available in instances where people are unsure how to comply properly with data protection regulations.
There were no known instances of complaints regarding breaches of customer privacy and losses of customer data.
Risks that could have a material influence on the business activity or on the net assets, financial position and results as well as the reputation of Munich Airport are explained below. The risks are presented in each case before (overview of gross risks) and after taking appropriate countermeasures into account (overview of net risks).
The risk assessment relates to the economic impact in the assessment period quoted. As of December 31, 2017, the following material gross risks were identified for Munich Airport:
Overview of gross risks
Risks resulting from force majeure
|Description and analysis
|Natural disasters
|A breach of the Isar dams near Freising caused by heavy rain could lead to the terminals being flooded.
|Gradual upgrading of the Isar dams by the water authority. They have already been partially renovated. Insurance to cover earthquakes, storms, hail and flooding has been arranged.
|Attack on air traffic
|The risk of terrorist attacks on air traffic remains high. In addition to bodily injury and property damage, this would result, at least temporarily, in a decrease in the number of aircraft movements and passengers.
|In order to prevent a terrorist attack, the Group Security division takes all the necessary strategic, operative, and technical/organizational measures: Provision of adequate and well-trained personnel resources as well as construction measures to guarantee modern and approved security technology and infrastructure, monitoring the quality of service through sustainable quality measures, and constant dialog with the responsible security authorities. Bodily injury and property damage as well as interruptions of operations are insured.
|Terror at the airport
|Acts of terror on the airport campus can result in bodily injury and property damage. A further consequence of such events would be, at least temporarily, a decrease in the number of aircraft movements and passengers.
|In order to prevent a terrorist attack, the Group Security division takes all the necessary strategic, operative, and technical/organizational measures: Provision of adequate and well-trained personnel resources as well as construction measures to guarantee modern and approved security technology and infrastructure, monitoring the quality of service through sustainable quality measures, and constant dialog with the responsible security authorities. Bodily injury and property damage as well as interruptions of operations are insured.
|Fulfillment of security tasks
|The airline companies are responsible for security tasks in transferred areas. In these areas, airline companies fulfill the same task as airport operators but are not subject to the same supervisory authority. For Munich Airport, there is a risk that inspections will reveal defects in transferred areas and the airport as a whole will lose its security status as a result. Defective controls could lead to property damage and bodily injury as well as reputational damage.
|At present, a Group company owned by Munich Airport is tasked with performing operational security tasks in the transferred areas.
|Market slump from epidemics/illness
|Epidemic/sickness outbreaks can result in market downturns with reduced aircraft movements and passenger numbers.
|Due to a relatively high fixed cost ratio, Munich Airport's ability to react to market downturns is limited.
|Large fire
|In the event of damage to or destruction of terminals or infrastructure systems caused by a large fire, property damage and bodily injury, as well as long-term interruptions of operations are to be expected.
|In order to minimize the risk of a major fire, Munich Airport takes all the necessary preventive and defensive measures and maintains its own Airport Rescue and Firefighting service. The risk of a major fire is also minimized by fire insurance cover (cover for property damage and interruptions of operations) and employer's liability insurance (liability claims of third parties). Following assessment of the countermeasures, the net risk is deemed to lie below the risk tolerance limit.
|Aviation accidents
|Aviation accidents or damage to aircraft can result in bodily injury and property damage as well as interruptions of operations and consequential damage.
|To minimize the risk, Munich Airport maintains an Airport Rescue and Firefighting service, a medical service, and a counseling team. The risk of aviation accidents is minimized through liability insurance and fully comprehensive insurance. Following assessment of the countermeasures, the net risk is deemed to lie below the risk tolerance limit.
Market risks
|Description and analysis
|Loss of/adverse impact on hub
|If Deutsche Lufthansa amends its strategy of operating the Airport as a hub, this would result in dramatic falls in the number of passengers and aircraft movements.
|Munich Airport's collaboration with DLH is based on joint investments and long-term cooperation agreements.
|Airlines' economic difficulties
|The European air traffic industry is in a difficult competitive situation. The airlines operating from Munich Airport are also affected by this.
|Steady acquisitions of new customers should be able to compensate for any decreases in existing customers.
Due to the strong demand for German domestic and tourist traffic, it is reasonable to assume that competitors will fill any emerging gaps at extremely short notice. It is planned to respond rapidly to any current developments through continuous market observation and close relations with decision-makers at various airlines.
|Economic cycle
|As a consequence of a weak economy, the growth parameters assumed in the planning process cannot be achieved, which has an adverse impact on profits.
During more significant economic crises, a collapse in loan finance markets may occur.
The exit of the United Kingdom from the European Union (EU) could have a negative economic impact and needs to be observed carefully.
|Reducing expenses through cost monitoring, if necessary reducing staff numbers in a socially responsible manner plus a short-term cut in the investment budget in non-critical divisions aim to mitigate the consequences of economic slowdowns.
There are revolving credit lines to ensure the company is solvent.
Operating risks
|Description and analysis
|EASA certification
|If the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) Certificate is not renewed, then Munich Airport could lose its operating license.
The certification procedure was completed successfully on December 6, 2017 with the formal award of the EASA Certificate. This means that the operating permit of the passenger airport in Munich was secured again as from January 2018. This risk will therefore be omitted from the risk reporting as from January 1, 2018.
|IT failure
|Damage to the IT system can result from fire, water ingress, or sabotage. Failure of IT for traffic operations with the corresponding interruptions of operations would be the consequence.
There is an increasing, abstract risk potential in the area of cybercrime, which needs to be observed and assessed continuously.
|Critical corporate IT systems are fully redundant with systems located in physically separate locations. Property damage and interruptions of operations are insured.
To defend against a cyber attack at Munich Airport, a central information security management system was set up in 2004 that specifies and monitors the strategic, technical, and organizational measures for combating cyber attacks. The risk is also minimized with an insurance policy. Following assessment of the countermeasures, the net risk is deemed to lie below the risk tolerance limit.
|Water damage
|Water damage caused by a break in the main drinking water or fire extinguishing water pipelines could lead to the failure of infrastructure systems important for air traffic.
|Remotely controlled emergency shut-off equipment and additional protective devices in the pipeline connections limit the possible damage. Property damage and interruptions of operations are insured. Following assessment of the countermeasures, the net risk is deemed to lie below the risk tolerance limit.
|Expansion of EU security requirements
|The European regulations on aviation security require the rules governing checks on persons and luggage at airports to be extended in phases. The resultant conversion measures cause costs. Depending on the design, the conversion work causes the loss of leasable space.
|Munich Airport is introducing optimization measures to minimize the loss of space.
|Failure to pass an EU safety inspection
|The EU's aviation authorities are conducting safety inspections at airports. If an inspection results in a high number of complaints, Munich Airport will lose its security status. The consequences would be a heightening of the safety regulations, considerable obstruction with operational processes, competitive disadvantages and a loss of image.
|Munich Airport conducts thorough and strict quality controls to manage the quality of all safety aspects at the airport.
After passing an inspection at the end of 2016 and following requirement-oriented process optimization and employee qualification, the likelihood of occurrence for the net risk is deemed to be extremely low.
|Utilities and waste disposal facilities
|The inadequate availability of substances necessary for operating activities, such as electricity, heat, cooling energy, drinking and extinguishing water, waste water, and waste, may result in property damage and interruptions of operations.
|The service and maintenance programs, network redundancies, and storage reduce the risk of gaps in supply. Property damage and interruptions of operations are insured. Following assessment of the countermeasures, the net risk is deemed to lie below the risk tolerance limit.
|Reorganization of ground handling
|The success of the reorganization of the former Ground Handling business unit could be put at risk by the following uncertain events and circumstances: sustained declines in traffic at existing customers, handling losses due to the cession of partial fleets to airlines that do not belong to the customer portfolio, aggressive price policy of competitors, and an increasing decline in prices at Munich Airport.
|A new contract was concluded at the end of 2016 in the negotiations concerning the extension of a long-term contract with an important customer of AeroGround. As a result, it was possible to extend associated collective restructuring agreements.
Continuous monitoring and reporting on the reorganization progress and/or path. In the event of a loss of ground handling, the capacities and related costs are reduced.
|Personnel procurement/recruitment
|Personnel procurement is proving to be increasingly difficult in the various career groups. The causes for this include the strained labor market in the region, the high costs for accommodation, the increasing age of the workforce, as well as the high level of fluctuation in the area of ground handling services.
|A working group was set up to counteract these issues. Its objective is to develop a Group-wide, coordinated procedure and target group-specific HR marketing and procurement concepts.
Further suitable measures are the intensification of training activities, the promotion of marketing at universities, and appearances at trade fairs and job exchanges.
Projects were also initiated to create affordable housing for Group employees.
Following assessment of the countermeasures, the net risk is deemed to lie below the risk tolerance limit.
Legal risks
|Description and analysis
|Third take-off and landing runway
|In the event of the third runway project being finally shelved or postponed for a significant period of time, all existing planning and land acquisition costs must be checked in respect of their recoverability and depreciated if necessary.
There could be a significant loss of corporate value unless capacity is expanded through the construction of the third take-off and landing runway.
The development project will require further examination and the further procedure will need to be decided.
|The legal ruling in favor of Munich Airport dated February 19, 2014 was an important milestone in limiting the legal risks for project implementation.
Munich Airport is also making a case to politicians for the expansion.
The well-founded work to persuade people of the merits of the third take-off and landing runway is continuing.
|Products used for de-icing
|There is a suspicion that the formates in the products currently used for de-icing paved areas and runways accelerate the oxidation of aircraft brakes. There are discussions about banning these formate de-icing products at the SAE (Society of Automobile Engineers) international standardization committee. As an alternative, there are currently only glycol-based de-icers on the market, and they are not approved for use at Munich Airport by the Ministry of the Environment. If they are banned, Munich Airport would have to invest substantial sums in waste water systems to comply with the requirements of water management legislation.
|The German passenger airports are working together with the ADV (German Airports Association) and the BDL (German Aviation Association) to fight against the ban on formate de-icers. The aim is to continue applying pressure on the SAE through the ACI (Airports Council International) Europe. In discussions with the Bavarian water management authority, ACI Europe, and the responsible SAE working group, it was demonstrated that the smallest possible amount of de-icers is used to minimize the impact on the environment. It is planned to involve manufacturers of the de-icers in resolving the problem in future.
In addition to the risks shown in the risk matrix, there was a risk of quality losses in the previous year in the personnel and goods checks and in alarm tracking due to personnel shortages (CAP staff shortages). Thanks to a successful increase in personnel and the deployment of a renowned security company as a subcontractor, this risk fell below the risk tolerance limit as at December 31, 2017.
Financial risks
|Description and analysis
|Currency risks
|Currency risks arise insofar as planned sales in foreign currencies are not balanced by any corresponding expenses or outgoings in the same currency.
|Munich Airport hedges currency risks using currency forwards.
|Credit and credit rating risks
|Credit and credit rating risks primarily arise from short-term deposits as well as trade receivables.
|In general, deposits are only made with German banks with deposit protection.
The management of credit rating risks includes the constant monitoring of debtors' creditworthiness, overdue invoices, and a stringent debt collections management. Dependent on the credit rating, certain services are only performed against prepayment or provision of collateral in the form of guarantees.
|Interest rate risks
|Interest rate risks essentially arise from floating-rate financial liabilities.
|Munich Airport counters interest-rate risks using interest payer swaps.
As is often the case in ordinary business activities, FMG is facing various legal disputes. They could lead in particular to the payment of compensation for damages or, in the case of construction projects, to changes in the service remuneration. Moreover, further legal disputes may be initiated, or existing ones may be expanded. Apart from the issues that have already been provided for in the balance sheet, FMG does not anticipate any material negative impacts on the net assets, the financial position, and the earnings situation from the other cases that are currently known.
For the gross financial risks listed below, the expected financial liability fell short of the reporting limit as of December 31, 2017. Therefore they were not included in the risk reporting.
After considering countermeasures, the following nets risks remain:
Overview of net risks
The divisions and investments identify, assess, and manage opportunities on a decentralized basis with support from Corporate Development, Group Controlling. and Investment Management.
Below the report shows the developments and events that could lead to a positive deviation from planning. The presentation is based on the risk report with the difference that the horizontal axis shows the occurrence time – that is the time until opportunities are expected to occur – and not the frequency with which they occur. No multiple mentions are made if the influence remains constant over the course of time. However, multiple mentions are made if the economic benefit changes. The economic benefit arises in the short, medium, long, or very long term and it is analyzed periodically.
Overview of opportunities
|Description and analysis
|Overcoming the existing geopolitical and economic crises could lead to an increase in the propensity to consume of passengers from regions outside Europe above the planned level.
|Global economic growth above planned levels could boost revenues further.
|An increase in air traffic growth above the expected level could increase revenues in all corporate divisions.
|Hub development
|The key partner airline DLH might expand the Munich Airport hub because of a further improvement in its market position, and this would lead to growth in passenger numbers above the planned target.
|FMG is working on the strategy to adjust the Airport's business model more closely to the structural change resulting from digitalization. This strategy might give rise to medium- or very long-term growth effects which were not fully taken into account in planning so far.
|Off-campus activities
|The off-campus business of Munich Airport (services and retail) might develop better than expected, with corresponding growth in the consolidated profit.
|Real Estate
|In the long term, activities in the Real Estate business division could be strengthened more than is currently planned, which would lead to revenue in this and possibly other business divisions being increased.
|CO2 strategy
|The continuing increase in efficiency among energy-saving technologies and an associated improvement in the price-performance ratio of low emissions energy generation could lead to the costs of Munich Airport's new CO2 strategy being lower than expected.
|Rail access
|Better than expected improvements to rail access could lead to an expansion in the passenger catchment area and consequently to increased revenue in all business units.
Overall assessment of the opportunities and risk situation
For Munich Airport as the second largest passenger airport in Germany and one of the largest airports in Europe, it is important to actively exploit any opportunities that arise and to improve its position on the market still further through constant growth. However, it is also a key objective of Munich Airport to recognize risks in good time and to counter them systematically.
Accordingly, the currently anticipated impact of possible events and developments is taken into consideration in business planning every year. The reported opportunities and risks are defined as potential deviations going beyond the forecast corporate result. Munich Airport consolidates and aggregates the risks reported by the corporate divisions and Group companies and reports quarterly to the Executive Board and shareholders. Opportunities are identified and managed with the involvement of the corporate divisions, Corporate Development as well as Group Controlling and Corporate Investment Management.
Taking account of the current business plan, the opportunities and risk situation has scarcely changed year on year. No new risks were identified that might potentially have a critical impact on income.
No risks were foreseeable from the Group-wide risk management system or in the assessment of the Executive Board during the current forecast period, which individually or in their entirety could jeopardize the continued existence of Munich Airport.
Munich Airport points out that various known or unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors may lead to actual events, the financial position, the business development or the performance of the company deviating significantly from the estimates provided here.


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A Philadelphia-based expert on gender-variant youth recently released her first book, and will give local audiences an insider's view of her work.
Dr. Michele Angello, author of "On The Couch With Dr. Angello: A Guide to Raising & Supporting Transgender Youth," will read from and speak about her new book from 6:30-8:30 p.m. June 12 at the William Way LGBT Community Center, 1315 Spruce St.
Angello, a clinical sexologist and gender specialist, has 14 years of experience working with transgender and gender non-conforming youth and their families. She is an adjunct professor at Widener University and has appeared on talk shows such as "Larry King Live" and "The Tyra Banks Show" to discuss issues regarding the transgender community.
Angello said she drew inspiration from the clients with whom she has worked.
"The primary inspiration was the families I work with and in particular with the children I have been working with the past 14 years," she said. "They are the most inspirational people I have ever met in my life."
Angello said it is especially satisfying to follow the families and the youth through their journeys of acceptance.
"The most rewarding thing has been seeing the amount of love that the family has for one another even when they struggle to understand and accept their children's challenges as gender variant. Most patients have family that come around," she said. "Beyond that, the most amazing thing is that these kids — as young as 3 years old — are coming in and, oftentimes, declaring who they are and what they need."
There are, however, other situations in which a parent or caregiver refuses to stand by his or her child.
"Families typically come around and show their unconditional love for their children, but watching the parents or caregivers struggle with understanding or accepting their child and, in particular, those times when a parent just can't — they don't have the skills to accept them or they kick them out or emotionally abandon them — are heartbreaking," she said.
Angello said she has been impressed with Philadelphia's transgender and gender-variant movement, noting that the Philadelphia Transgender Health Conference continually offers a diverse and progressive range of topics.
"I think they have an incredible movement. What is most wonderful to see is how the community has organized this movement — it is filled with people who are just so ahead of the curve in Philly," she said.
Angello's book signing will coincide with the PTHC.
She said the conference is something that helps bring both visibility to the community as well as offers a welcoming and affirming environment.
"I think it has brought and continues to bring a safe space for people who are exploring gender identity and it allows for an increased level of visibility among mainstream non-transgender people," she said. "A lot of times people show up to conferences because they heard a lot about it and their minds are just blown. It is powerful."
Angello said her book is largely geared for those individuals who are not familiar with the transgender and gender nonconforming community.
"The goal for my book is to attempt to reach that exact audience. I attempted to write it in a way that anyone can pick it up, but especially a parent who found out yesterday that their child is gender-variant, and how they can support their child. It is not pathological; these kids risk everything to be authentic to themselves. It is my intention to make it accessible and to allow for people to see, even if they don't know someone who has had trans experience, to understand what the experience is about and that it is not unusual."
For more information, visit http://micheleangello.com/.

subset: commoncrawl


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Ashley Marie'S PROFILE
pornstar details
- Date of Birth: 2/12/1985
- Ethnicity: Asian
- Height: 165cm
- Eye Color: Brown
- Hair Color: Black
- Ashley Marie on BabePedia.com
Asian American girl Ashley Marie is a pornstar who comes from Riverside, California. This horny girl is 5 feet 5 inches tall, has straight black hair and pretty brown eyes. Her 34B-28-38 inch body is unmarked by any tattoos or piercings and she loves to suck dick and ride on a hard cock every chance she gets. When she first started to have sexual fantasies, she would always wonder what it would be like to work in XXX movies and she supposedly has said that she's living her dream. Straight out of high school she began hunting around for photographers to take her nude pictures and send them into porn studios. It wasn't long before she was getting calls to come in for casting.
Miss Marie had her first break in 2005 when she was cast for a movie in which she would suck a cock and take a facial cumshot. Her scene partner was impressed with her blowjob skills and said that it was one of the best he's had in a long time. Encouraged by his compliments and happy with the amount of money she made for doing it on film she decided to keep working in porn movies. As the months and years went by she took on several different kinds of movies from hardcore fucking to lesbian pussy licking and interracial cock sucking. There are some nice solo masturbation scenes too where she really shows how she gets off using only her fingers.
This hardcore vixen has performed in about 50 titles during her career and did her last work apparently in 2013. If she has retired it hasn't been announced widely as of yet, so fans of Asian porn can look forward to a comeback anytime. PornHubPremium is your source for all of her featured scenes and you can watch them from your computer right now!


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ABS, GENETICS & the TRUTH
Are abs genetic? Yes. Yes, they are. Everyone has abs (maybe beneath some fat), but not all abs LOOK the same! And this is due to our genetics. Some have a 2 pack, some a 4 or 6 pack.... and the select few actually have an 8 pack. There is even such a thing as uneven abs.
See below for a peek.
Although, not all of us have the genetics to build an 8 pack, abs look pretty good even if just a 2 pack or they're uneven. There are studies done that show certain DNA makes one more athletic, agile, "genetically gifted"; however due to the complexity of the study (having to take into consideration gender, age, ethnicities) there isn't a lot of published scientific information.
I think it is fair to say that we can often times tell when we meet someone with AHH-mazing genetics because their effort level seems quite low for the physique they hold. Why is this?
FACTS of our DNA:
- Everyone carries body fat a little differently. Someone may look really good at 22% body fat, where you might need to be as low as 12% body fat before you see the results you're going for.
- There are different body types:
- Ectomorph: Delicate frame and bone structure, thin, lean muscle mass, hard to gain, fast metabolism.
- Endomorph: Soft body, gain BOTH muscle and fat easily, stocky build, hard to lose fat, slower metabolism, muscles are not so well defined.
- Mesomorph- Athletic build, well defined muscles, gain muscle easier, can lose fat easily, strong shape.
- Most people are some combination of the above
- There are different body builds: Long torso, short torso, long legs, short legs, long arms... broad back, thin waist, large hips, tiny hips, top heavy, bottom heavy....
The LONG and SHORT of it ALL
- Hardwork beats genetics when genetics ain't working hard!
- Everyone has abs! The easiest way to reveal them? Reduce body fat %.
- The #1 way to reduce belly fat is through your daily diet (making changes, awareness & accountability)
**You cannot SPOT train your stomach (aka doing a bunch of sit-ups won't remove belly fat)
Diet for abs?
There is no "one size fits all"
But here are some pointers....
1) Caloric deficit and not just that, but chose healthy foods for your body! DON'T starve yourself either. Your body will store fat; especially in your lower belly)
2) Carbs is the biggest culprit for MOST, but not all. Carbs aren't always cake and pop, but can be over eating rice and sweet potatoes. Begin to measure out your portions to see how much you are consuming of carbs and even track them on a food tracking site like myfitnesspal.
3) Fat isn't bad for you, but are you getting too much or the wrong types?
4) Protein. Most people don't eat enough protein. When we are low in protein our body often craves sugar.... aka carbs. If we get enough protein we will feel more satisfied, indulge in less sweets and it helps build lean muscle!
5) Variety. DON'T eat the same foods for every meal, every day. Add variety into your fruits, veggies, meats, carbs, fats so your body doesn't adapt.
6) Track. Tracking your food, either by hand or on an app, creates awareness for you of where you are over or under eating. Once you do this for a while, you won't need to anymore, as you will learn proper portion sizes and have a general idea off the top of your head as to where you are at!
7) Accountability. Join a challenge, find a trainer or partner with a friend in making changes to your diet to reveal your abs.
Wonder where you should be in your daily eating to reveal your abs?
A SUPER easy way to find out what your daily caloric intake should be and your macros (carb, fat and protein) is with: If It Fits Your Macros. It allows you to input your data and select if you'd like to gain, maintain or lose weight. You can then begin to make changes to your eating and see the results in your abs!
A few AB-solutely good foods to eat for beginners (keep it organic):
- Fats: Avocados, nuts and nut butters, egg yolks, flax seed, chia seed
- Carbs: VEGETABLES, FRUIT, sweet potatoes, oatmeal, brown rice, quinoa, beans, lentils
- Proteins: White fish, chicken, egg whites, vegan protein/grass-fed whey proteins, Greek yogurt


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- Please call us for FREE help:
- (866) 531-0695
Cloverhill Adult Home
355 S Main St, ALBION, NY
- Assisted Living
Payment Options
- Medicare No
- Medicaid No
- Veteran's Benefits No
- Long Term Care Insurance No
- Subsidy Available No
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If you are associated with Cloverhill Adult Home , click the Claim Listing button to contact a representative about a free listing with our referral program.
- Nationwide Network of Care Advisors
- Work with 25,000 families each month
- Market your community with Photos, Videos, FAQ
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Description of Cloverhill Adult Home in ALBION, NY
Number of Beds : 44
Cloverhill Adult Home provides you with the very best in assisted living services through a welcoming, amicable community. For seniors who cherish their independence but still need a helping hand with daily activities, an assisted living program is designed for exactly such a lifestyle. Come experience true freedom, but one with compassionate care always nearby! Assisted living communities have many benefits. Research suggests that seniors who live near their peers and have a variety of social activities feel a greater sense of well-being. With assisted living, you'll enjoy senior-friendly homes and a welcoming staff. Other services you'll find include around-the-clock supervision and security, access to professional nurses, emergency call systems, help with daily living, and nutritious meals prepared by chefs. These communities typically provide housekeeping, laundry, transportation, and a calendar of social events. Reside at Cloverhill Adult Home and enjoy an exciting new chapter of life, where elders can share stories and relish the companionship of peers. With a full range of assisted living services, and with a welcoming, amicable community, seniors feel right at home. The help you'll find at assisted living communities is offered as necessary, with the goal of supplying the support services required to stay as self-sufficient as possible. When you are ready to make the move to Cloverhill Adult Home for assisted living services, call a senior care advisor.
Source: OurParents.com
Demographic Profile for ALBION, NY, 14411
Cost Of Living
Compared to the National Average
Provided By EPA; Closer to 100 is better
Annual Crime
Nearby Drug Stores
Wal Mart Stores East Lp13858 Route 31 West
Distance: 0.6 miles
(585) 589-0761
Rite Aid Of New York Inc175 South Main Street
Distance: 0.6 miles
(585) 589-5685
Eckerd Corporation10 East Avenue
Distance: 0.6 miles
(585) 589-4417
Nearby Churches
Albion Free Methodist Church25 S Platt St
Albion, NY
Distance: 0.8 miles
(585) 589-9115
First United Methodist Church19 N Platt St
Albion, NY
Distance: 0.9 miles
Albion Upright Mission Of Jesus Christ4582 Oak Orchard Rd
Albion, NY
Distance: 3.1 miles
(585) 589-9670


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Dear Future Self –
I'm curious: do you remember this winter? The winter of 2019?
We perhaps have had more snow on the ground than I have ever seen in my life. And with this snow has come lots and lots of ice and cold and wind. So much ice. So much cold. So many days off of school. Six in the last three weeks, to be exact. And let me tell you, it hasn't all been sunshine and playdough. Allow me to refresh your memory:
The days have been long and the hours of sunlight short. There have been times when you were sure if you heard the word "Mom" one more time you'd go sprinting from the house, even if doing so meant running barefoot through the snow. The bickering between the kids has led you to question your attempts at instilling kindness and patience in your offspring. You've calculated the combined total hours of "screen time" each day, wondering if it was a healthy amount and rationalized that just maybe, given the circumstances, a little extra might happen to be okay.
Do you remember the day your youngest got the "Happy Birthday Song" stuck in his head and couldn't stop humming it not matter how hard he tried (or how many times his siblings asked, er...told, him to stop)?
Do you recall enlisting the help of little fingers to tear three layers of old wallpaper from the upstairs hallway, simply because you literally needed a change of scenery?
Do you remember the day you returned from a long weekend up north, desperate for a break from the constant questions and needs to fulfill only to find that school was cancelled the following day?
Do you remember how you tried so hard to be everything to each of them, to entertain and make the day fun and out of the ordinary and then found yourself practically in tears over your afternoon coffee feeling like a complete failure as a mother?
Oh yeah. Those were the days.
Or were they?
So you may be wondering why I feel the need to write these things down for you now. Why remind my future self of the frustrations, the housebound days when everyone's tempers were short and you would've given your right arm for a hot, uninterrupted shower and kids who loved to read quietly in their rooms for hours on end?
Because I know you. And I know that you have read countless blogs and articles about loving the little years, savoring each moment with your children while they are young and resisting the temptation to wish away this season of motherhood. And, even though you may not remember it now, you think about that a lot. You fear that your heart may never recover from having to let these children go and grow up. You wonder how you'll ever watch one of them walk down the aisle without standing up and shouting, "No! I'm not ready."
And as I think about you (future me) now, a mom with grown kids, I wonder what you'll remember. I hope it's all of the good and very little of the bad. I hope it's the sloppy kisses from your sons and the suffocating hugs from your daughters. I hope it's the wonder in their eyes when they see just how much snow fell over night and the ear-to-ear grins as they get their sledding path just right out in the back yard. I pray that you look back on these years I'm living now and smile.
But this is what else that I hope: I hope that you are thankful for your current season, too. I hope that you remember enough of the challenges to appreciate how far you've come, how far they've come and how much you've all grown. And just how perfectly your heavenly Father equipped you for this insurmountable, incredible calling of motherhood, walked beside you on the good days and carried you on the trying ones. I hope that, even though you may miss aspects of the chaos that surrounds me now, you also appreciate the quiet in your house and the still-yet-hot cup of coffee in your hands.
Yes, those were good days. But they weren't perfect.
Those are still yet to come <3
Younger Me


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Board Certified in Family Medicine
Dr. Gadgil is a graduate of St. Mary's University in San Antonio, and earned her master's degree in public health from the University of North Texas Health Science Center in Ft. Worth. She received her medical degree from Touro University College of Osteopathic Medicine in Vallejo, California, and residency training at the University of California- Davis Stanislaus Family Medicine program in Modesto. Dr. Gadgil is board certified in family medicine.
Dr. Gadgil focuses on preventive medicine and women's health issues.
Dr. Gadgil practices at the Memorial City location.


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The clearest picture of the options for the best results possible.
Some of the Earth's greatest landscapes are threatened by increased road construction, oil and gas exploration, and mining. We aim to protect these areas from inappropriate development, but we cannot achieve our goals alone. Find out how you can help.
All photography provided by Jared Chambers
Learn more about Faricy Law, our mission, our areas of practice, the results of our decades of experience, and the things we care about.
Take Action
Our Clients can expect their case to be handled by a dedicated attorney who will take the time to listen to their concerns and answer any questions they may have.


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Post-apocalyptic novel from bestselling author Lauren Dane
New York Times and USA Today Bestselling author Lauren Dane takes you into a brand new world in ALL THAT REMAINS. Summer Killian falls fast and hard when Charlie arrives in Paradise Village. But the heat turns all the way up when she learns Charlie is also with Hatch — the man she loved four years before. While she's not sure she's cut out for a triad, neither man is going to give her up.
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I like hiring undocumented workers to fix my house and mow my lawn, 'cos the Irish were enslaved, starved to death, murdered for their land, and refused employment, and dammit, it's our turn to feel special. Sure, you shouldn't lift yourself up by putting someone down, but nothing else has worked. Except for A.A. A.A. is great, if you wanna be sober. Livin' in your dream world. "I'm sober and I'm happy." See, there's your problem. Denial. Don't be sober. Be yourself.
Or at least act drunk. Do us all a favor. You don't have to do drugs to have a good time. That's why I want to go to schools and teach children how to pretend to be stoned. 'Cos that's most of the joy and you save a lotta money.
Go to work on Monday. Rub the palms of your hands on your eyeballs, so they're all bloodshot, and act baked all day. Eat a huge lunch. You take the piss test on company time, beats workin'. Plus you're a decoy for all the stoners at work. Manager doesn't see them tokin' in the boys' room, 'cos he's watchin' you laughing at your hand opening and closing. Just say no to drugs. And yes to irresponsible behavior. You can do it. (snort) Power of imagination.


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Girl Develop It
Girl Develop It
Girl Develop It is a nonprofit organization that exists to provide affordable and judgment-free opportunities for women interested in learning web and software development. Through in-person classes and community support, Girl Develop It helps women of diverse backgrounds achieve their technology goals and build confidence in their careers and their every day lives.
- Website: https://www.girldevelopit.com/
- Twitter: @girldevelopit


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6 hours
Just as grand rounds in a hospital encompasses the various members of the medical team, this grand rounds supervision group will be led by Sally Valentine, PhD, LCSW, AASECT certified Sex Therapist and Supervisor and Aleece Fosnight, PA, specializing in sexual medicine, AASECT certified Sexuality Counselor and Educator. Bring your sex therapy and counseling cases including all of your sexual medicine questions, issues of erectile difficulties, low sexual desire, sexual trauma, sexual pain, intimacy issues, and more. Don't miss this unique opportunity!
When: Saturday, Dec. 9, 2017, 10am to 5pm
Where: Boca Raton, FL
Who: Anyone working toward certification or needing help with their sexuality cases. If participants want the supervision to be counted toward certification, they will need to have a signed contract approved to participate.
RSVP by Nov. 9, 2017
Group is limited to 8 people
To reserve you space, contact Sally Valentine, email@example.com.
Aleece Fosnight, PA, CSC, CSE, is a sexual medicine, urology and women's health physician assistant in Western North Carolina and is a nationally certified AASECT sexuality counselor and educator. Her interests include pelvic floor dysfunction, urinary incontinence, pelvic organ prolapse, pregnancy/postpartum concerns, pelvic pain, low libido, interstitial cystitis, menopause, female sexual health, low testosterone, and erectile difficulties, providing sexual health education, information and personalized counseling to patients of all ages. www.aleecefosnight.com
Dr. Sally Valentine, LCSW, CST, CSTS, in addition to AASECT certified sex therapist and supervisor is certified in EMDR, Hypnotherapy, and Imago Relationship Therapy. Her extensive training includes trauma resolution, tantric mind-body therapy, difficult sexual issues that affect relationship such as loss of sexual functioning, infidelity, and changes in relationship agreements, as well as exploring and teaching sexual and pleasure enhancing activities that add color to life! She is a national and international presenter and workshop facilitator in areas of tantra sexuality, healing the mind-body connection of trauma, and personal growth transformation. www.drsallyvalentine.com


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music store
Budget $300-1500 USD
I am looking for a person or company what are able to build a piece of software - almost identical in look and feel, as the Itunes software, we are talking very nice design and usability. The player / software, will present products (imported by xml through internet --> we create feed from database) just like Itunes on the splash page after starting the software.
The software must be able to play a various of media files, why it should be based on the windows media player platform. The player will present different items for shopping - again, just like Itunes software.
Electronic download delivery of MP3 audio files, all of the search features, an administrative backend, a system to keep track of sales and royalties owed to labels, an area for lables to log in and keep track of their available albums/royalties, paypal credit card processing. Audio previews, banner advertising, all of the features of downloadpunk.
We only wish contacts from people who can show similar project developement, as this is not for newbees.
Please give link til similar references.
Job Type: C/C++
Visual Basic


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Aside from acting, Jennifer Lawrence is known for not really holding back in interviews – as well as her infamous love of pizza.
You always know when you see her on a chat show, you're going to get great stories, good laughs and some embarrassing moments to boot.
In her latest outing on The Late Show With Stephen Colbert, she didn't disappoint, oh no.
As part of the promotion for her upcoming film Red Sparrow, Lawrence went on the show, which got out of hand pretty quickly.
It only took three minutes of being sat on his chair for Stephen's secret stash of Havana rum to come out – and things took a turn from there.
After knocking back three large glasses of rum in under ten minutes, Lawrence is understandably a bit looser with her anecdotes and she revealed one little titbit of info about who she flirted with at Amy Schumer's wedding.
Now if you're thinking J-Law would be flirting with the hottest, most ripped guy at the entire wedding, you'd be entirely wrong.
I mean, maybe the guy is attractive to you if you're into comic geniuses, but I realise it might be a bit of a niche.
[ooyala autoplay="true" player_id="5df2ff5a35d24237905833bd032cd5d8″ auto="true" width="854″ height="480″ pcode="twa2oyOnjiGwU8-cvdRQbrVTiR2l" code="QzMHZpZTE6RdE1bKLFpKTwtFUjlNeBf7″]
Anyway, here's Jen's story about who she had the hots for at the wedding:
I was flirting with Larry David all night but it was very one sided. I'm obsessed with Larry David but he's not obsessed with me.
So after the ceremony Amy comes up and grabs me and goes 'Let's go upstairs and talk about life, and love' and like this giant decision she just made.
And we go up to the roof and she's talking about everything and I just went 'Amy every minute that I'm here, Larry could be leaving'.
Incredible. The more I think about it, the more I can actually understand why someone could fancy Larry David, imagine the hijinx!
Jen's been in the media a lot recently (when is she not?) for finally speaking up about her alleged role in the split of Anna Faris and Chris Pratt.
There were numerous rumours of Chris and Jennifer hooking up while filming the 2016 sci-fi drama Passengers – mainly because the pair were simply great friends on set and showed sparkling onscreen chemistry, however these rumours were firmly and repeatedly denied.
Anna even invited Jennifer onto her podcast Anna Faris is Unqualified to chat about the hurt the accusations caused.
It was here Anna opened up about feeling vulnerable and insecure when her marriage came under scrutiny.
This show of solidarity hushed the gossipers up for a while, but rumours were in full force in the aftermath of Chris and Anna's heart breaking divorce announcement last year.
However, Lawrence has now spoken about the rumours and how unexpected they were.
Speaking with KISS FM, the actress added:
I mean, they got a divorce like two years later and everybody was like, [shouting] 'Jennifer Lawrence!' And I was like, 'What the … what, I'm in Montreal two years later'.


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Cant a Mil is an independent Welsh bookshop in Cardiff (the Heath area) in South Wales. Our business started in June 2014 and since then we have grown steadily and have attracted a growing number of loyal customers. We have a comprehensive stock for children, adults and Welsh learners in the shop as well as here on our website.
You may have noticed the recent change of name! We are now Cant a Mil to reflect our greater emphasis on books. We have over 3000 titles in stock (and that's just new books) so we felt it was time to give books a greater share of the shop space and show them off properly.
Need a card?
We are regularly complimented on our great choice of contemporary Welsh greetings cards and we are delighted to be able to support card designers from Cardiff and across Wales.
Gifts from Wales
In addition we have a range of gift ideas for friends and family, from personalised name badges to prints to vintage Welsh tapestry coats.
Second-hand books
At the back of the shop we also have a stock of second-hand Welsh language books. If you're searching for a particular title published in the last few months or up to a couple of hundred years ago do please get in touch! You can contact us by email or phone and of course, we are always happy to post books to you.
Come and find us!
You will find our shop on Whitchurch Road in Cardiff, next door to the Post Office. If you're coming by bus (Numbers 8, 9 or 35) ask for 'Companies House' and you will see us directly opposite. We look forward to welcoming you to Cant a Mil, our lovely Welsh bookshop in Cardiff.
Jo, Dai, Ilid, Anna, Laura and Esther


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There's still time to register to become a fundraiser for West Dunbartonshire hospice, St Margaret of Scotland at its ladies only 5k midnight walk this weekend.
Taking place this Saturday, the event has become one of the most popular and sociable fundraising events on the Clydebank hospice's calendar since it was first held in 2013.
The deadline for registration is 5pm this Friday, September 4.
Last year, almost 500 walkers donned colourful outfits and light-up headgear at the walk which raised more than £40,000 for hospice funds and organisers hope even more will take part this weekend.
The walk, measuring exactly 5k starts at Great Western Retail Park with registration starting at 9.45pm at the B&Q car park. There will be entertainment from 10.30pm and children from six years old can take part as long as they are accompanied by a responsible adult.
As the build-up continues, a qualified gym instructor will provide a keep fit session at 11.40pm before the walk officially starts at midnight.
Registration for women is £15 and £5 for children with a deadline of 5pm this Friday.
Commemorative t-shirts will be given to all and each participant is asked to raise £30 in sponsorship which can be collected through the hospice's Just Giving page at www.justgiving.com/smh if preferred.
To obtain a registration form, call the fundraising team on 0141 435 7018 or email firstname.lastname@example.com .
If interested in helping to steward, register participants or cater at the event call the same number of send an email to the address above.
You can also sign up by clicking here .


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La Bergamote
Although located in Chelsea, this Parisian style patisserie has a long glass case filled with sweets ranging from fruit tarts to fluffy almond meringue to triple chocolate mousse cake. Other favorites include the almond croissants and pain au chocolat, but La Bergamote also has house-made chocolates. The brunch menu has both sweet pastries like brioche and fruit danishes and savory options such as quiche Lorrain, croque monsieur, and the Parisienne omelette made with black forest ham, tomatoes and gruyere cheese. Lunch and dinner are served as well.


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Being a game set in ancient Roman times, Titan Quest seems a natural fit for ancient Egypt. And given there's no official Egypt DLC for the Diablo clone, one modder thought he'd make his own.
Charlie Cunningham is the sole developer behind Unearthed Studios, a studio based in New Zealand. And for the last little while, he's been working on a little pet project: marrying ancient Egypt to the dungeon crawling mechanics of Titan Quest.
Called Hamunaptra, the mod is based around what Cunningham says is "an alternate plot line" from The Mummy movie (the good 1999 version with Brendan Fraser, not the recent one that I'm pretending doesn't exist). "Features include more open world environments; horror based themes; new items to discover; huge multi-level dungeons with many secrets; and new and reworked enemies," the New Zealand-based developer said in an email to Kotaku.
According to the official site, the project has been in development since late 2014. Unearthed's Facebook page also has a neat collection of concept art and screenshots:
For more information about the mod, head to the official FAQ on the Hamunaptra website.


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Why the "why" of a painting matters by Re' St. Peter
One of the topics that we spend quite a bit of time on in my "Finding an Approach" class is: Why?
Specifically, why do you want to tell *this* story? What is it about this photo or subject that says "paint me?" Is it the light, or the colors, or something more subtle: a mood, a memory, an appealing shape? Perhaps you just want to capture the cheerful flowers in a market stall, or the patina of a weathered wall.
Spending a few minutes determining the "why" of a subject will be tremendously helpful in creating a successful painting. As you can see from my example, the first time I tackled this subject I said "Oh, I love this photo, I'm going to paint it." And that's basically what I did – painted the photo. It's a nice painting, but not terribly engaging, and I knew there was more in the image than what I'd captured.
The second time around, I spent some time asking myself what I really wanted to convey. What I loved about the scene was the relationship between the girl and the goat. Secondary to that was the girl's posture and the simple beauty of her white clothing. By changing the orientation of the painting and dropping out most of the surroundings, "Love-A-Fair" becomes an image that tells a story, and gets people talking about their own 4H memories.
Re' St. Peter
Don't miss out on Ré St. Peter's workshop FINDING AN APPROACH on Sat 07/21 10-2pm $85
When working from reference photos, it's easy to simply copy what we see. In this class, we'll define the "why" of what draws us to paint a scene or subject. From there, we'll explore ways to turn our reference into a compelling painting that tells the viewer a story.
Suitable for artists of any medium.
To register, please email firstname.lastname@example.com or visit http://www.paintedhillstudio.com/classes/
For more great articles like this one, follow Re's blog here.
#cloud9artschool #restpeterpaintedhillstudio #paintingfromphotos


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University of Pittsburgh School of Law
New Search • All Schools • All Classes • Admin Tool
3900 Forbes Ave.
Pittsburgh, PA, 15269
Courses Offered
- ADR Survey Course
- Culture & Conflict
- International Commercial Arbitration
- International Dispute Resolution
- Negotiation
Primary Contacts
- Pat Chew, firstname.lastname@example.com
Other Directory Information
- Are any ADR courses part of a required curriculum? No
- Participate in ABA ADR Competitions? No
- ADR Certificate available? No
- Advanced Degree in ADR available? No
- Student Groups? Yes
» Edit this School's Information
ABA Section of Dispute Resolution
The material contained herein reflect the views of individual contributors, and do not necessarily represent the position of the American Bar Association, the Section of Dispute Resolution, the editors of this survey, or the University of Oregon School of Law.


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Beach Reads
August 1, 2009 at 9:54 pm Leave a comment
Like many of you, I would rather be on the beach reading a book these hot summer days than spending my days working. (Although, I must add, working in libraries is great!)
So, what should you take to read at the beach? There is no consensus on what characterizes a good beach read, but I would argue a story that keeps you occupied (riveted enough so that you don't fall asleep under the hot sun), is not so emotionally heavy as to dampen the light mood of summer, and small enough to stash in your beach bag are essential qualities.
See the results of what 16,000 National Public Radio audience members had to say.
Books by Barbara Kingsolver are popular, as are writer's of women's fiction or "chick-lit" such as Jennifer Weiner and Helen Fielding. Many of the titles are on the Torrance high school summer reading lists and are located in our 'Must Reads' area upstairs.
Here are the first ten titles on the list as a teaser:
1. The Harry Potter series by J.K. Rowling
2. To Kill a Mockingbird by Harper Lee
3. The Kite Runner by Khaled Hosseini
4. Bridget Jones's Diary by Helen Fielding
5. Pride and Prejudice by Jane Austen
6. Divine Secrets of the Ya-Ya Sisterhood by Rebecca Wells
7. The Great Gatsby by F. Scott Fitzgerald
8. The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy by Douglas Adams
9. Fried Green Tomatoes at the Whistle Stop Cafe by Fannie Flagg
10. The Poisonwood Bible by Barbara Kingsolver
Just in case you don't want to limit yourself to reading "best beach reads" recommended by thousands of NPR listeners, you can also check out NPR's recommended list of books set on beaches!
NPR is not the only publisher of summer reading recommendations. You will not be underwhelmed by this grand summer reading list of lists.
– rs
Entry filed under: Uncategorized. Tags: books, travel.
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48-Port Managed Ethernet Switch with WebView and PoE - SRW248G4P-K9 (SF300-48P)
Mã: TT37
Xuất xứ:
- 48 10/100 PoE, Công suất tối đa mỗi port 15.4W, Công suất tối đa switch 375W; 2 10/100/1000 ports; 2 Combo mini-GBIC ports.
- Performance: Switching capacity 17.6 Gbps, nonblocking, Forwarding rate 13.10 mpps wire-speed performance.
- Layer 2: Port grouping up to 8 ports per group with 16 candidate ports for each (dynamic) 802.3ad link aggregation, Number of VLANs 256 active VLANs (4096 range), Head-of-line (HOL) blocking HOL blocking prevention.
- Layer 3: IPv4 routing Wirespeed routing of IPv4 packets, Up to 32 static routes and up to 32 IP interfaces, Classless Inter-Domain Routing (CIDR) support for CIDR.
- QoS: Priority levels 4 : hardware queues, Scheduling: Priority queuing and weighted round-robin (WRR), Queue assignment based on DSCP and class of service (802.1p/CoS).
Sản phẩm khác


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valentine's show!
Feelin' all warm & fuzzy about Optimus Rhyme's Valentine show at the Supermarket this Tuesday! Music, poetry, comedy and all the love! Be Awesome shoppe in full effect. See you there, lovelies ❤😊
2016 am I right?!
Button Barrage @ the Burdock
Our friends at Wool and Howl asked us to bring our Be Awesome Shoppe to the Burdock.
Here's some fun buttons & magnets that went home with guests from the show!
Shoutouts to Blazeworks for our new sign
Mitch & Brooklyn for helping press new badges at our Holiday Button Party!
vibe these days
Come check us out this weekend at Shopgirls Gallery Boutique ! We'll be on the patio slinging buttons & magnets, listening to live tunes, sippin' on Sunflower Smoothies and having some gooooood times.
#beawesome #together #music #market #popup #shopgirls
new favourite buttons!
Picked up these gems at Kid Icarus in Kensington Market! Gotta give love and support to our fellow buttoneers/sailomoon fans :) #meatballhead #usagichan #sailormoon #spiritbuttons
magnets & boo-tons
flashback friday!
that time we tried to use buttons as currency (okay that's most days, but to be fair- sometimes it works!)
#happyfriday #brianlitrell #brok #bsb #freeparking #buttonparty #buttonoftheday #botd #spiritbutton #toronto #buttons #torontobuttons #beawesome #together
spread the word!
This is our most asked for painting and we couldn't be happier about that! This one is headed to St.Catharines to represent and help spread the word! Take responsibility for your energy, y'all and #beawesome #together ✌
because bismack.
you've had the power all along, my dear. you just had to learn it for yourself - wizard of oz
do it!
hello wedding buttons
Went to a beautiful wedding on the weekend for our friends from Hong Kong!
Been saving these buttons for months just to share with them on their special day :)
That time I lived in Hong Kong and insisted on pressing this sweet Bulls button before going to the market for dim sum, and then fate showed me the Rodman to my Jordan. I love the magic of spirit buttons!
love me or leaf me


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Kenya: Can universal basic income revolutionise development?
Issued on:
Many people have argued for a guaranteed living stipend to keep the most vulnerable from falling into misery, including in France. In Kenya, one NGO has launched an experimental universal basic income programme in an underprivileged village. Each month, it gives cash to all the adults who live there. So is it working? Our colleagues from France 2 report, with FRANCE 24's Bryan Quinn.
A programme prepared by Patrick Lovett and Gaëlle Essoo.


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The opening might be more than six months away, but the new rehabilitation facility for female drug offenders is already being hailed as a major step for Barbados.
The cost of the soon-to-be refurbished facility, formerly a half-way house know as Everton House, in Dash Valley, St. George, is yet unknown as inspections and estimates are to be conducted next week, but Chief Justice Sir Marston Gibson and Minister of Health Donville Inniss declared it a much needed intervention in the drug fight.
The initiative is being headed by the National Organisation of Women, whose President, Marilyn Rice-Bowen, noted that this kind of facility was long in coming.
"We are hoping to start construction, hopefully, in early March and of course I want to say publicly that we will welcome any donations. They know how to contact us, the National Organisation of Women, because people tend to feel that their children are not involved in drugs or whatever, but when we have a situation that currently exists with the females of this island any of us could be affected because the children go to school with your children and grandchildren…
"All the ills affect the society as a whole and the National Organisation of Women hold firmly to the view, our theme is Each Woman Can Make a Difference and we intend to make that difference for the female substance abusers on the island," she said.
Inniss told reporters after the tour that private sector help like this enabled Ministry of Health officials to cast a wider net of care across the island.
"Apart from the Psychiatric Hospital, there really has been no facility to cater to women and the evidence is there that more and more women are getting involved in drugs and substance abuse… This partnership is certainly one that is highly commendable…
"I have always said that the Ministry of Health and the state cannot do it alone… Our approach in the ministry in recent times has not been to issue a blank cheque, but to pay for services. For too long the state has been taking on the bulk of the burden in this community and that has proven never to be a sustainable way of doing business," he said.
The health minister noted that two years ago the ministry took the decision that individuals placed in rehabilitation facilities would be housed at a cost to the state, but under the condition that periodic reports be provided to health to gauge success of such interventions.
"At the end of the day, we want to know that whether you go to a state-funded institution or a private sector institution that the quality of care is the same," he noted.
The Chief Justice in his remarks said the opening of this facility, once all the relevant repairs were done, would provide the court system with alternatives for treatment and sentencing of such individuals. (LB)


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Jackson's Flank Attack, May 2, 1863
American Battlefield Trust's map of the Battle of Chancellorsville - Jackson's Flank Attack
After learning that the Union right flank was "hanging in the air," Robert E. Lee and Stonewall Jackson settled upon a highly aggressive plan to march Jackson's forces around the Union positions and onto that exposed flank. After a hard and dusty march on May 2, Jackson's column reached its jumping off point for their attack upon the unsuspecting Federal right flank. At 5:20 pm, Jackson's line surged forward in an overwhelming attack that crushed the Union Eleventh Corps. However, some Federal troops did rally, resist the advance, and counterattack. Disorganization and darkness ended the fighting. While making a night reconnaissance, Jackson was shot by his own troops in the darkness and fell seriously wounded.
J.E.B. Stuart took temporary command of Jackson's Corps. On May 3, the Confederates attacked with both wings of the army and massed their artillery at Hazel Grove. This finally broke the Federal line at Chancellorsville. Hooker withdrew a mile and entrenched in a defensive "U" with his back to the river at United States Ford. On the night of May 5-6, after Union reverses at Salem Church, Hooker crossed to the north bank of the Rappahannock. This battle is considered by many historians to be Lee's greatest victory.
Learn More: The Battle of Chancellorsville
Donate today to preserve battlefields in America and protect the legacy of our nation's defining conflicts.


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Super easy caramel apple dump cake/0 Comments/in Dessert, Food /by [email protected]
If an apple cobbler and a dutch apple pie got together, they might taste something like this Caramel Apple Dump Cake. I love experimenting with dump cake because it's so quick and easy to make and it always turns out great. If you don't have time to make an apple pie or apple cobbler, you […]
Cake help: Chocolate brownie disaster/0 Comments/in Dessert, Food, Food decorating /by [email protected]
Help! How can I fix these sunken brownies? So here I was, baking chocolate brownies for Christmas gifts. They looked great and smelled great when I took them out of the oven. A few minutes later, my brownies sank in the middle. This wouldn't have been a problem if I'd made them for me. I'd […]
Turkey soup from leftover turkey/0 Comments/in Food, Soup /by [email protected]
Use Thanksgiving leftovers to make turkey soup Thanksgiving's over and you're left with a few turkey scraps and the carcass. You might be tempted to throw it out, but don't! That bird still has one more trick up its wing. Here's an easy soup recipe you can make with your leftover turkey and carcass. If […]
Cream of carrot soup with pie spice/0 Comments/in Food, Soup /by [email protected]
A warm and spicy cream of carrot soup recipe Here's a simple recipe I invented for carrot soup seasoned with pumpkin pie spice. I thought the naturally sweet carrots would go well with the warm blend of cinnamon, ginger and nutmeg in the pumpkin pie spice. And they're perfect together! By itself this cream of […]
My name is Lynda Makara. I'm an artist, DIYer and dancing queen. My love of color, sparkles and shiny things shows in everything I do.
Creating art and beauty all around me is my passion, and that's what this blog is about. It's about art. It's about home. It's about inspiring you.
So come on in to my home of happy art, tutorials and creativity. Let's have fun!
- The enzyme that eats scar tissueSeptember 24, 2019 - 4:37 pm
- Homemade sauerkraut, my flat belly secretAugust 19, 2019 - 6:05 pm
- Keto diet results year 2 | keto after 60June 5, 2019 - 6:02 pm
- Dyeing my silver hair lavender with Arctic Fox girls nightMay 24, 2019 - 3:32 pm
- Is Jeffree Star's magic star concealer good for mature skin?April 25, 2019 - 2:04 pm


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Q: I shopped around to find my new car. Everything went well, but I was confused because each time my credit was pulled I got a different score! Is that normal?
A: It is completely normal for your score to vary. There are three different credit bureaus and not all creditors report to all three. Depending on who is pulling your credit, they may be getting a slightly different picture of your payment history. Also, scores are weighted differently based on who is pulling them. For instance, car dealerships may put more importance on your history of repaying auto loans as opposed to other types of credit.
Q: Follow up: Is it going to hurt my score that I had four credit checks in two days?
A: The credit bureaus have also become more sophisticated when it comes to consumer shopping. If you have a few credit pulls within a quick timeframe for a similar request, they will count them as one inquiry. Hope you are enjoying the new car!
Q: I just got promoted to Sergeant and I'm thinking of treating myself to a new motorcycle. I want to make sure I get the best rate available. How soon will my credit score reflect the raise in my salary?
A: Congratulations on your promotion! Surprisingly, your credit score does not factor in your income. While things like payment history, amounts owed, length of credit and percentage of new credit all contribute to your score, the credit bureaus don't receive salary information. Your lender will still review your income if they calculate your debt to income ratios, but the pay bump will not have an effect on your score.
Q: My brother has been a bit down on his luck and needs some help getting back on his feet. He just got a new job that's a quick walk from his house, and he also found a used car at a reasonable price. He's asking me to co-sign for him, so he'll have a way to run errands and get around. He has promised me that he'll make all the payments, so it won't impact my credit, right?
A: It is admirable that you want to help your brother, but co-signing for a loan will absolutely have an effect on your credit. Even though you and your brother know that the obligation is his, on paper you are equally responsible. The auto loan will show up on your credit report and if his circumstances change and he's unable to pay, you will be on the hook! It sounds like your brother is on solid footing with a new job that's conveniently close. Instead of offering to co-sign, which is a long and substantial commitment, you could offer to give him rides to the grocery store once a week and help with errands until he's able to secure financing on his own.
Q: I signed up for a new credit card because it had a great balance transfer rate. Now, I've been getting a ton of pre-approval notices and offers in the mail? Are all of these card companies pulling my credit, and if so, does that hurt my score?
A: These offers are the result of "soft pulls" that lenders can do without impacting your credit. They don't have any bearing on your score and they don't show up as inquiries on your credit report.
These are just a few of the common credit questions that we hear. If you have personal credit questions, please check with a professional before taking any action. Your credit score is an asset that deserves your attention and protection!
Gwendolyn M. Hawkins is a Certified Credit Union Financial Counselor with over 20 years of experience in the credit union industry. Her services are offered in Chicago Patrolmen's Federal Credit Union's Financial Planning and Education Center. Her services are free to members of CPFCU.
*This article was printed in the Chicago FOP 7 Magazine Q1 2016


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Correlation + Analytics – Causation = Confusion
April 17, 2015 6 Comments
What causes 'something' and what action to take to either prevent or make that 'something' happen has been the curious question that has led to major scientific discoveries and philosophical theories. But these are based on painstaking research in a closed environment and a focused approach for years.
In recent years, the promise to solve this has hit the business world. The promise being that what causes something is hidden in the data (so much of it!), and analyzing that big data will give the solution. Simple idea, but not as simple as it sounds.
Establishing causation in a business environment with multiple, ever-changing factors and now, increasing data sizes is not a trivial problem. And filtering it down to action where 'do this and this will happen' is probably tougher than scientific 'cause and effect' discoveries. Probably because a sure-shot causation does not exist in the business world.
Very often, the clients ask – 'so what should I do? what action should I take?' And my answers have been kind of similar, and probably frustrating. 'Well there are multiple factors, and what action to take depends a lot on what you want to do and where you want to go.'
A bit like the Cat in Alice in Wonderland.
'Would you tell me, please, which way I ought to go from here?'
'That depends a good deal on where you want to get to,' said the Cat.
'I don't much care where —' said Alice.
'Then it doesn't matter which way you go,' said the Cat
The fixation with 'data-driven decision-making' has led to the notion that causal factors for anything can simply be derived based on a few things happening together, and that somehow if one finds something in the data happening together and some kind of model to stitch them, it will be the magic bullet to drive action.
The truth is that what causes something is rarely as simple as that. Observing what happens together is easier, but establishing one leads to another is not.
The belief catching up is that one should track all kinds of data in huge volumes, and derive connections using powerful machines and databases and implement real-time. The presumption being that all the humongous information and processing will reveal correlations and insights so strong that causation or logic is not relevant.
Nothing could be farther from the truth.
Even 'Smoking causes Lung Cancer' is not a sure thing. All smokers will not get lung cancer and all non-smokers will not escape it, so how can one say sure-shot causality exists? So much so that for even something that is so universally accepted, most accomplished researchers now speak in probabilities like 'Smoking is one of the risk factors linked to Lung Cancer'.
In complex production environments where most things can be measured, factors that are scientifically tuned and tracked and known and follow a fixed pattern, it is still tough to say with complete confidence and certainty what exact combination causes a defect or failure.
In more qualitative and customer-centric functions like marketing, it is even tougher to be exact about the factors that cause an increase in sales or better response from customers or higher customer satisfaction or whatever. So it is tougher to link it down to a clear mix of specific causative factors.
In stock markets, technical analysis is entirely based on looking for signals in patterns that repeat themselves. No one has yet found a 100% cause effect that works every time. Besides, even for followers of technical analysis, it is not clear which is the cause and which is the effect. Whenever it works, does it work because everyone follows it, or does everyone follow it because it works?
In most business situations, there is no such thing as a sure-shot correlation – so the question of a sure-shot cause-effect is even farther. Anyone who confidently demonstrates cause and effect, and that too with multiple factors, either doesn't understand it or is in the business of being confident, not right.
That is not to say correlations are useless. Often they could be used as standalone signals – but that is all they are.
Hence, statisticians come up with the language of correlations, factors and probabilities. And because nobody understands them, every one thinks what they are saying is causation and surety. That is the start of problems.
'What do you mean so much probability? What is this statistically significant model? What exactly should I do?' is the question. Or even better 'We wanted to get actionable insights!' Or even better 'We gave you all the data we had!'
Data, correlations and statistical models – without any causation or business logic are like a solution looking for a problem to solve. An insight looking for justification rather than a hypothesis looking for validation. A recipe for disaster even in the best of situations.
As it is, analytics gives you no sure-shot answers and talks in probabilities – even in the best of situations. But in this scenario, the only sure-shot thing that one will end up in is confusion. Even if you don't want to get there.
Like Alice in Wonderland.
'But I don't want to go among mad people,' Alice remarked.
'Oh, you can't help that,' said the Cat: 'we're all mad here. I'm mad. You're mad.'
'How do you know I'm mad?' said Alice.
'You must be,' said the Cat, 'or you wouldn't have come here.'
Alice didn't think that proved it at all; however, she went on 'And how do you know that you're mad?'
'To begin with,' said the Cat, 'a dog's not mad. You grant that?'
'I suppose so,' said Alice.
'Well, then,' the Cat went on, 'you see, a dog growls when it's angry, and wags its tail when it's pleased. Now I growl when I'm pleased, and wag my tail when I'm angry. Therefore I'm mad.'


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As a black gay man, I've always been in search of a historical roadmap of who I am through learning about the lives of those who came before me. Discovering the works of other black gay writers and activists years ago helped me in unimaginable ways.
Earlier this year, I came to learn things about myself which can only be described as transformative. Before June, the name Craig G. Harris had no significance at all but by June 27th, 2017, all of that had changed forever.Read More