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How facts backfire
Researchers discover a surprising threat to democracy: our brains
It's one of the great assumptions underlying modern democracy that an informed citizenry is preferable to an uninformed one. "Whenever the people are well-informed, they can be trusted with their own government," Thomas Jefferson wrote in 1789. This notion, carried down through the years, underlies everything from humble political pamphlets to presidential debates to the very notion of a free press. Mankind may be crooked timber, as Kant put it, uniquely susceptible to ignorance and misinformation, but it's an article of faith that knowledge is the best remedy. If people are furnished with the facts, they will be clearer thinkers and better citizens. If they are ignorant, facts will enlighten them. If they are mistaken, facts will set them straight.
In the end, truth will out. Won't it?
Maybe not. Recently, a few political scientists have begun to discover a human tendency deeply discouraging to anyone with faith in the power of information. It's this: Facts don't necessarily have the power to change our minds. In fact, quite the opposite. In a series of studies in 2005 and 2006, researchers at the University of Michigan found that when misinformed people, particularly political partisans, were exposed to corrected facts in news stories, they rarely changed their minds. In fact, they often became even more strongly set in their beliefs. Facts, they found, were not curing misinformation. Like an underpowered antibiotic, facts could actually make misinformation even stronger. This bodes ill for a democracy, because most voters — the people making decisions about how the country runs — aren't blank slates. They already have beliefs, and a set of facts lodged in their minds. The problem is that sometimes the things they think they know are objectively, provably false. And in the presence of the correct information, such people react very, very differently than the merely uninformed. Instead of changing their minds to reflect the correct information, they can entrench themselves even deeper. "The general idea is that it's absolutely threatening to admit you're wrong," says political scientist Brendan Nyhan, the lead researcher on the Michigan study. The phenomenon — known as "backfire" — is "a natural defense mechanism to avoid that cognitive dissonance." These findings open a long-running argument about the political ignorance of American citizens to broader questions about the interplay between the nature of human intelligence and our democratic ideals. Most of us like to believe that our opinions have been formed over time by careful, rational consideration of facts and ideas, and that the decisions based on those opinions, therefore, have the ring of soundness and intelligence. In reality, we often base our opinions on our beliefs, which can have an uneasy relationship with facts. And rather than facts driving beliefs, our beliefs can dictate the facts we chose to accept. They can cause us to twist facts so they fit better with our preconceived notions. Worst of all, they can lead us to uncritically accept bad information just because it reinforces our beliefs. This reinforcement makes us more confident we're right, and even less likely to listen to any new information. And then we vote. This effect is only heightened by the information glut, which offers — alongside an unprecedented amount of good information — endless rumors, misinformation, and questionable variations on the truth. In other words, it's never been easier for people to be wrong, and at the same time feel more certain that they're right. "Area Man Passionate Defender Of What He Imagines Constitution To Be," read a recent Onion headline. Like the best satire, this nasty little gem elicits a laugh, which is then promptly muffled by the queasy feeling of recognition. The last five decades of political science have definitively established that most modern-day Americans lack even a basic understanding of how their country works. In 1996, Princeton University's Larry M. Bartels argued, "the political ignorance of the American voter is one of the best documented data in political science." On its own, this might not be a problem: People ignorant of the facts could simply choose not to vote. But instead, it appears that misinformed people often have some of the strongest political opinions. A striking recent example was a study done in the year 2000, led by James Kuklinski of the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. He led an influential experiment in which more than 1,000 Illinois residents were asked questions about welfare — the percentage of the federal budget spent on welfare, the number of people enrolled in the program, the percentage of enrollees who are black, and the average payout. More than half indicated that they were confident that their answers were correct — but in fact only 3 percent of the people got more than half of the questions right. Perhaps more disturbingly, the ones who were the most confident they were right were by and large the ones who knew the least about the topic. (Most of these participants expressed views that suggested a strong antiwelfare bias.) Studies by other researchers have observed similar phenomena when addressing education, health care reform, immigration, affirmative action, gun control, and other issues that tend to attract strong partisan opinion. Kuklinski calls this sort of response the "I know I'm right" syndrome, and considers it a "potentially formidable problem" in a democratic system. "It implies not only that most people will resist correcting their factual beliefs," he wrote, "but also that the very people who most need to correct them will be least likely to do so." What's going on? How can we have things so wrong, and be so sure that we're right? Part of the answer lies in the way our brains are wired. Generally, people tend to seek consistency. There is a substantial body of psychological research showing that people tend to interpret information with an eye toward reinforcing their preexisting views. If we believe something about the world, we are more likely to passively accept as truth any information that confirms our beliefs, and actively dismiss information that doesn't. This is known as "motivated reasoning." Whether or not the consistent information is accurate, we might accept it as fact, as confirmation of our beliefs. This makes us more confident in said beliefs, and even less likely to entertain facts that contradict them. New research, published in the journal Political Behavior last month, suggests that once those facts — or "facts" — are internalized, they are very difficult to budge. In 2005, amid the strident calls for better media fact-checking in the wake of the Iraq war, Michigan's Nyhan and a colleague devised an experiment in which participants were given mock news stories, each of which contained a provably false, though nonetheless widespread, claim made by a political figure: that there were WMDs found in Iraq (there weren't), that the Bush tax cuts increased government revenues (revenues actually fell), and that the Bush administration imposed a total ban on stem cell research (only certain federal funding was restricted). Nyhan inserted a clear, direct correction after each piece of misinformation, and then measured the study participants to see if the correction took. For the most part, it didn't. The participants who self-identified as conservative believed the misinformation on WMD and taxes even more strongly after being given the correction. With those two issues, the more strongly the participant cared about the topic — a factor known as salience — the stronger the backfire. The effect was slightly different on self-identified liberals: When they read corrected stories about stem cells, the corrections didn't backfire, but the readers did still ignore the inconvenient fact that the Bush administration's restrictions weren't total. It's unclear what is driving the behavior — it could range from simple defensiveness, to people working harder to defend their initial beliefs — but as Nyhan dryly put it, "It's hard to be optimistic about the effectiveness of fact-checking." It would be reassuring to think that political scientists and psychologists have come up with a way to counter this problem, but that would be getting ahead of ourselves. The persistence of political misperceptions remains a young field of inquiry. "It's very much up in the air," says Nyhan. But researchers are working on it. One avenue may involve self-esteem. Nyhan worked on one study in which he showed that people who were given a self-affirmation exercise were more likely to consider new information than people who had not. In other words, if you feel good about yourself, you'll listen — and if you feel insecure or threatened, you won't. This would also explain why demagogues benefit from keeping people agitated. The more threatened people feel, the less likely they are to listen to dissenting opinions, and the more easily controlled they are. There are also some cases where directness works. Kuklinski's welfare study suggested that people will actually update their beliefs if you hit them "between the eyes" with bluntly presented, objective facts that contradict their preconceived ideas. He asked one group of participants what percentage of its budget they believed the federal government spent on welfare, and what percentage they believed the government should spend. Another group was given the same questions, but the second group was immediately told the correct percentage the government spends on welfare (1 percent). They were then asked, with that in mind, what the government should spend. Regardless of how wrong they had been before receiving the information, the second group indeed adjusted their answer to reflect the correct fact. Kuklinski's study, however, involved people getting information directly from researchers in a highly interactive way. When Nyhan attempted to deliver the correction in a more real-world fashion, via a news article, it backfired. Even if people do accept the new information, it might not stick over the long term, or it may just have no effect on their opinions. In 2007 John Sides of George Washington University and Jack Citrin of the University of California at Berkeley studied whether providing misled people with correct information about the proportion of immigrants in the US population would affect their views on immigration. It did not. And if you harbor the notion — popular on both sides of the aisle — that the solution is more education and a higher level of political sophistication in voters overall, well, that's a start, but not the solution. A 2006 study by Charles Taber and Milton Lodge at Stony Brook University showed that politically sophisticated thinkers were even less open to new information than less sophisticated types. These people may be factually right about 90 percent of things, but their confidence makes it nearly impossible to correct the 10 percent on which they're totally wrong. Taber and Lodge found this alarming, because engaged, sophisticated thinkers are "the very folks on whom democratic theory relies most heavily." In an ideal world, citizens would be able to maintain constant vigilance, monitoring both the information they receive and the way their brains are processing it. But keeping atop the news takes time and effort. And relentless self-questioning, as centuries of philosophers have shown, can be exhausting. Our brains are designed to create cognitive shortcuts — inference, intuition, and so forth — to avoid precisely that sort of discomfort while coping with the rush of information we receive on a daily basis. Without those shortcuts, few things would ever get done. Unfortunately, with them, we're easily suckered by political falsehoods. Nyhan ultimately recommends a supply-side approach. Instead of focusing on citizens and consumers of misinformation, he suggests looking at the sources. If you increase the "reputational costs" of peddling bad info, he suggests, you might discourage people from doing it so often. "So if you go on 'Meet the Press' and you get hammered for saying something misleading," he says, "you'd think twice before you go and do it again." Unfortunately, this shame-based solution may be as implausible as it is sensible. Fast-talking political pundits have ascended to the realm of highly lucrative popular entertainment, while professional fact-checking operations languish in the dungeons of wonkery. Getting a politician or pundit to argue straight-faced that George W. Bush ordered 9/11, or that Barack Obama is the culmination of a five-decade plot by the government of Kenya to destroy the United States — that's easy. Getting him to register shame? That isn't. Joe Keohane is a writer in New York. |


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"Some people just aren't meant to be together." -KeamyOkay, we have lots of things to discuss about "The Package." First, though, allow me a paragraph or three to be pissed off. Really, really, really pissed off that ABC saw fit to clutter the bottom corner of the screen with a "V" logo and a ticking count-down clock to point people towards tonight's return of that show.
On-screen clutter has been one of the scourges of television over the past decade, as networks think nothing of putting annoying flashing billboards all over their shows, sometimes for other shows, sometimes to remind you of the name of the show you're already watching. I remember writing a column way back in 2001 bitching about how NBC interrupted an episode of, I think, "West Wing" in order to use a bug to promote a new show called "First Years." I wrote that I was so irritated that I hoped "First Years" would fail just to prove the gimmick wrong. "First Years" did fail, quickly, but clutter has only gotten worse. I manage to avoid a lot of it because I watch so many shows on screeners (had I been forced to watch "Men of a Certain Age" on TNT, rather than on DVDs, I likely would have felt much more harshly about that show, knowing how much TNT loves its clutter). I, like the TV executives who approve crap like this, don't always watch TV the way regular people do (which is no doubt why said executives don't think it's a bit deal to approve it), so I manage to avoid the worst of the worst. (Matt Groening once said that he imagines a good chunk of people who buy "Simpsons" DVDs are doing it so they can see the episodes without all the clutter Fox inserts into the broadcasts.)
But because I watch "Lost" live like the rest of you, there was no way to avoid it, and it was ridiculous: between the large red "V" logo, and the ticking clock, it was impossible to not notice it, virtually ever moment it was on screen (which was everywhere except right before or after a commercial break), and in at least one case the stupid clock obscured the note Sun was writing to Jack. Well-done, ABC. Really freaking well-done.
Again, I accept that I've lost the clutter fight, but there are some shows and moments that should be above this junk. As Mike Schneider wrote, "this is "Lost." The final season of "Lost." It's sacred ground. You don't clutter the screen during one of the show's final, pivotal episodes. Or you piss people off."
Count me in among the pissed, and the only thing keeping me from going full-on ballistic is the fact that "The Package" was middle-of-the-pack "Lost" - an episode that's necessary because it moves a lot of story points along but isn't that thrilling in and of itself. Had they pulled a stunt like this during "Ab Aeterno," a shoe might well have gone through my flatscreen.
After last week's extended Richard flashback, the sideways universe returns, and once again we find out that things are different but in many ways better for two of the characters who have declined to take Smokey's side. Alt-Jin and Alt-Sun aren't married, but she's still carrying his child, and their relationship is much warmer without the stress that Jin carried as Mr. Paik's son-in-law. Of course, Keamy does try to kill Jin on Paik's orders, and Sun winds up getting shot during the battle with Bakhunin(*), but until that point, they're happier than they were in the real 2004, which certainly goes along with my epilogue-in-advance theory, where the people who go against Smokey get a happier ending than those who follow him. (Though at the moment, the only sideways we've gotten that qualifies as the latter is Sayid's.)
(*) And Bakhunin, of course, gets shot in the right eye, because some things have to remain the same from timeline to timeline. By the way, think we'll ever get any Patchy backstory from the real timeline - i.e., was he really a Dharma guy who flipped to Ben's side, or something more complciated? - or is that one of those questions Darlton don't want to/have time to answer?
Still, good as Daniel Dae Kim and Yunjin Kim are together - and this is the first episode where they've shared extended screentime together since the end of season four - this wasn't one of the more compelling sideways stories. Maybe, like the others, it plays better in a few months after the secret of this universe has been unlocked, but here it was a charming love scene and then a lot of Keamy hamminess. (I really liked Keamy's return in the Sayid-ways, but seeing him in so much of this episode made me realize the less-is-more nature of Kevin Durand's performance, you know?)
As for the island material, we at least got that great moment where Widmore shows Jin the pictures of Ji Yeon(**), and we got a bunch of questions answered: Widmore says he's working to stop Smokey (when there was some ambiguity in his reaction to Sawyer's belief that this was his goal in "Recon") and has a plan that involves the island's electromagnetic anomalies (as mapped by Jin and the rest of LaFleur's crew back in the '70s), Desmond is revealed (as many of you guessed) as the "package" inside the locked room on the sub, and Smokey needs Jacob's remaining candidates to get off the island(**). And we got a reminder of what a good duo Jack and Sun were back in the day. (Seriously, that final scene was the most likable the real version of Jack has been in many, many seasons.)
(**) Daniel Dae Kim absolutely killed that scene, and between that scene and Jack's promise to Sun at episode's end, I think I may be just as invested in seeing the Kwon family get their happy ending as I am on guard that Desmond, Penny and baby Charlie sail off into the sunset.
(***) And because the list on the cave wall differs from the list in the lighthouse - specifically, in that Kate's name is not crossed out in the lighthouse - Smokey appears to be making a big mistake in giving Claire permission to kill Kate once she helps them reassemble the remaining candidates.
It wasn't all thrilling, but there was at least a sense of the story moving forward, my man Desmond is back in play, Sayid's soul is gone (but he looks really cool coming out of the water at night), and Richard finally has a plan for Team Jacob, even if Jack seems determined to not let it happen. There are a lot of agendas at play now, a lot of weird moving pieces, and if "The Package" didn't get my blood racing (though the stupid "V" clock got it boiling in spots), it at least has me interested to see how what happened tonight plays into the bigger picture.
Some other thoughts:
• I wonder if there's going to be a larger plot point to Sun's temporary loss of her English, or if it's there to create a parallel to season one, where when the Kwons finally reunite, Jin will speak English and she won't.
• It occurs to me that Jack and Sawyer now seem to be occupying the same moral space on their respective sides; seeming to play along but really only concerned with getting their friends the hell off Craphole Island; imagine what they could accomplish were those two crazy kids to join forces!
• So part of the "cork" properties of the island seems to prevent Smokey from using his powers to get off it, but doesn't keep him from hopping on an outrigger to row over to Alcatraz. Hmmm... Seems an odd loophole. (And, once again, someone with a gun takes an outrigger but does not shoot at Sawyer's season five group. Sigh...)
• Nice to see the return of the weird indoctrination/rave room that Karl was locked in during Kate and Sawyer's escape from Alcatraz in season three. If that place was just another Dharma experiment, as Zoe claimed, why exactly would Ben stick Karl in there? Just as punishment for annoying him?
Finally, a programming note: I'm due to take a couple of weeks family time starting either next week or the week after (a couple of pieces are still being moved around), which means I may either skip over two of the next three episodes, come to them very late, and/or touch on them very briefly and then open up the conversation to you. Sorry for the inconvenience, but the timeframe only has so much wiggle room, and can't wait until after this season. I promise that as soon as I see each episode during the time I'm off, I'll get up some kind of quick post; I just might not see each one right away.
Ticking clock-related rants aside, what did everybody else think?

subset: commoncrawl


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I don't like new year's resolutions because they usually amount to more pressure and disappointment. I try to look at life as progress – are every few years getting better than the last? Are we happy? Over the past two months I've been focusing on living simply, eliminating stress and organizing life. Along with drinking lemon water, buying a juicer, there are 10 things the family has undertaken to ensure we are living simply with as little stress as possible.
1. Unsubscribe from as many email lists as possible. Keep the ones that you covet, but recognize that your time – even that 5 second glance to your phone when it dings – is worth gold.
2. Do a closet overhaul. (It doesn't have to be a What Not to Wear episode where you feel guilty and depressed.) Put anything that doesn't quite fit in a suitcase labelled with the size and date. Check for stained items, holes, pills and shoes beyond repair. Invest in new, thin felt hangers (Homesense is a great place for these) and take metal hangers back to the drycleaner.
3. Place all of your jewelry on the bed. Separate any broken pieces that need repair, and start a collection of unwanted or broken costume pieces for a little girl in your life. When I was a little girl, a friend's grandmother did this for me and I was thrilled by my treasures. Polish the silver and clean gold, pearls and gems with a soft cloth. I hung chunky necklaces on scarf hangars and places bangles in shoeboxes.
4. Pull out your makeup and toss anything that is too old. Wash brushes with Dawn and water and dry flat on a cloth. 97.9 % of us, according to a study on the use of cosmetics, are guilty of using make-up after the expiration date, with mascara being the most frequently mentioned product. Products with a higher water content have a shorter lifespan after opening due to the ability for bacteria and microbes to breed in moisture.
Expiration Dates for Makeup:
Mascara (regular or waterproof), liquid, pencil or gel eyeliners: 4 to 6 months
Cream, Liquid or Stick Foundations or Concealers: 6 months to 1 year
Powder-based products (including mineral makeup): 2-3 years
Lipsticks, Lip Gloss, & Lip Pencils: 2-3 years
Cleansers: 1 year
Toners: 6 months to 1 year
BHA or AHA Exfoliants: 1 year
Facial or Body Moisturizers and Serums: 6 months to 1 year
Lip Balms: 1 year
5. Eliminate undue travel stress. Note passport expiry dates in your calendar and apply for a Nexus/Global Entry pass to skip long airport security lines. Keep travel chargers and ziplocks sorted with different currencies from past trips in your go-to suitcase, and have a few key seasonal clothing items at the ready in case you take a trip to a different climate. Check balances on hotel points cards and ensure you are using them to your advantage.
6. Be ready for sick days. Check first aid kits for expiration dates on medicines. Have homemade chicken soup in the freezer. We use the homemade chicken stock recipe from Kitchen Stewardship, which provides incredible healing benefits, including boosting the immune system, aiding digestion, increasing efficiency of protein use and providing easily digestible minerals, including calcium. You also get none of the 'fake' foods and preservatives when you make it yourself. Get rid of the dust. Give your kids an extendible duster once a week and give them a quarter if they can cover it with dust from the tops of frames and chandeliers.
7. Grab all of your gift cards and see if some can be amalgamated. If you have a stack of cards you will never use, use Cardswap.ca to exchange them for cards you will use.
8. Are your computer and mobile phone systems working well? I hadn't backed up files, and my phone and computer contacts were duplicated or not being saved properly. Not being able to find a number for a mom during a playdate or losing precious photos to power surges can be devastating or just stressful. Calling Geek Squad or heading to the nearest Apple or Microsoft store could sort out all of your tech woes. Oh, and write your printer toner numbers in your wallet along with your license plate number. (Or am I the only one who always forgets these?) You can also photograph it all, along with membership cards and parking passes and store the photos in a special account in the cloud.
9. Evaluate the entertainment options. Our family is a bit over the top. We have a huge cable package, a Netflix subscription, Next Issue, and regularly make purchases on iTunes and Google Play. I sat down with the family and we discussed our needs. There isn't enough time in the week to watch, play and read everything. We decided what is most important (English football and Netflix) and eliminated a few unnecessary distractions from there. It can be worth a call to your providers to check the options. Amazon Prime can cut down on entertainment costs. For film buffs in the US, Fandango is your best friend.
10. Do you and your kids do a weekly activity? We were always searching for shin guards, cleats and ski helmets, so we now have a system. Monogrammed bags for each activity (ours are from Land's End) are packed and in the mudroom. We take them to the activity and then right to the laundry room afterwards. When the clothes are clean and dry they go right back into the bag and to their permanent home. Ditto for library book bags.
We'd love to hear your tips and tricks for living simply! Write them below and we will choose our favourite at random for a special gift card!


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How about an exotic carpet ride through Arabian Nights? This week Kelly has a new kit called A Whole New World that celebrates Princess Jasmine and her adventures. It's perfect for Agrabah meet and greets, The Magic Carpets of Aladdin ride pictures and scenes from around World Showcase's Morocco. You will want to have the whole collection, so make sure you also pick up the Page Starters, Word Art, and Journal Cards. Kelly has also made some beautiful Quick Pages so that you can pull your layouts together in no time at all!
The kit contains 15 patterned papers of royal purple, blue, orange and gold. There is a full shining, shimmering gold alpha. Inside you will also find unique elements including a bazaar, castle, camel, carpets, crown, gems, genie lamp and smoke, lantern, Jasmine doll, palm fronds, stars, medallions, magic dust, word art and more!
These new releases can be found inside the Kellybell Designs Store priced at 25% off this weekend only. You can view all the CT layouts at Kelly's Blog or Kelly's Facebook Page.
Now how about some freebies to coordinate with this new kit? You can find one on Julie's blog, and another by Debbie on the I 💗 Kellybell Designs Facebook Page. Make sure you join the group if you have not already. Have a great weekend and happy scrapping!


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A couple of weeks ago I wrote about the first episode of a series of controls targeting cyclists who ride through red light. The controls are still going on around Stockholm and it's for the best: cyclists are a real threat to pedestrians and car drivers and must be treated like the criminals they all are!
Handcuffs look good on casually dressed bike commuters.
Of course there are a few sloppy motorists too but the situation on the roads is not as critical as the anarchy it's on the bike paths. A police check in the city once in a while should be enough to remind drivers of the rules and make sure they stay safe in their rolling coffins. An operation like the one carried out in the evening of Thursday, April 26th and which definitely proves cyclists are the real threat… oh wait…
Between 23:00 and 06:00, Stockholm Police carried out an operation on "The Central Bridge" (Centralbron) & in "South Way Tunnel" (Söderledstunneln). Around 90 cars were stopped. Fines amounted to 50,000 SEK.
- highest speed was 125 kph (instead of 50 kph)
- 12 driving licenses were confiscated as a result of speeding and drink-driving
- 15 drivers were caught driving without a license, 6 showed fakes
- 1 driver commited environmental crime with "illegal waste transport" (whatever that means)
- 2 people were taken to the police station on suspicion of drug-impaired driving
- 1 person was arrested for illegal weapon possession and drink-driving
- 2 people were reported for breaching knife law
- 1 person was taken into custody for being in Sweden illegally
This is the result of just one single police check carried out on a regular weekday. I don't know about you but as far as I'm concerned I have a pretty good idea who the real threat to Stockholmers is.
The report is available (in Swedish) here – http://www.polisen.se/Stockholms_lan/…/Flera-fast-for-rattfylleri-fortkorning-och-olovlig-korning/


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Joe Jonas, Sophie Turner + More Slam Article Claiming Priyanka + Nick's Wedding Was a Sham
Sophie Turner, Joe Jonas and more are furious after The Cut published and later retracted and article suggesting Priyanka Chopra and Nick Jonas' relationship is fake.
In the piece, author Mariah Smith suggested the Quantico star's marriage to Jonas, 26, was purely strategic. In a particularly viral snippet from the now-deleted article, Smith wrote: "All Nick [Jonas] wanted was a possible fling with Hollywood's latest It Woman, but instead he wound up staring straight at a life sentence with a global scam artist."
Readers were incensed by the opinion piece, slamming it as xenophobic, racist and baseless. Before long, the story caught the eye of celebrities, including some close to Chopra, 36, and Jonas.
Turner, 22, took to Twitter to address the piece, writing that it was "wildly inappropriate and totally disgusting." She went on to say she was, "Very disappointed that The Cut would give anyone a platform to spew such bulls---."
The Game of Thrones star's fiancé, who also happens to be Jonas' older brother, also had something to say about The Cut's story. Joe Jonas tweeted that the outlet should "be ashamed to have someone write such evil words."
Outrage over the article has been widespread, with several Bollywood stars and other Indian public figures speaking out about how appalled they were by its publication. Sonam Kapoor said the piece "reeks of envy and bitterness." Sona Mohapatra called the article "deeply disgusting" and "sick."
She tweeted, "For a publication that 'shows women's [SIC] what they are made of " @TheCut has a lot to answer for . The article on @PriyankaChopra was sexist , racist and disgusting. Also it's written by a woman which is so sad. It reeks of envy and bitterness. @mRih shame on you!"
The Cut removed the piece from their site. The writer has not issued an apology or statement of any kind.


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Executive Director - Euthanasia Prevention Coalition
Euthanasia supporter and researcher, Margaret Battin, wrote an article that was published in the Journal of Medical Ethics in 2007 that suggested that there was no evidence that vulnerable groups were negatively affected by the legalization of euthanasia and/or assisted suicide. The article also suggested that there was no proof that a slippery slope exists.
The Battin article is important because the suicide lobby claims that this article definitively proves that we have nothing to fear by the legalization of euthanasia or assisted suicide.
Battin examines the data from the Dutch (5 year) euthanasia reports and the annual assisted suicide reports from Oregon and concludes that people who are members of vulnerable groups are not adversely affected by the legalization of euthanasia or assisted suicide.
Euthanasia without request or consent.
The concern that people are dying by euthanasia without request or consent is ignored by Battin. The 2005 Netherlands report shows that there were approximately 550 deaths without explicit request or consent. These deaths are not part of the euthanasia statistics which showed that there were approximately 2297 euthanasia deaths and 113 deaths by assisted suicide in the Netherlands in 2005.
Since the time of the Battin article new research concerning the practice of euthanasia in the Flanders region of Belgium that was published in the CMAJ in May 2010 concluded that up to 32% of all euthanasia deaths are being done without explicit request or consent.
A similar study concerning the role of nurses in the practice of euthanasia in the Flanders region of Belgium that was also published in the CMAJ in May 2010 concluded that 45% of all euthanasia deaths, by nurses, were done without explicit request or consent.
It is important to note that the researchers indicated that the time the decision to lethally inject the person, without request or consent, was made by the doctor 70.1% because the person was comatose, 21.1% the person had dementia, and 8.2% the doctor deemed the discussion to be harmful.
How can people who do not want to die by euthanasia be protected when it is done without request or consent? Choice is an illusion.
Depression people dying by euthanasia or assisted suicide.
Battin refered to the study by van der Lee, et al, that found that people who were depressed or had "feelings of hopelessness" were 4.1 times more likely to request euthanasia. This study is significant because van der Lee, who supports euthanasia, stated in her hypothesis: "their clinical impression was that requests for euthanasia were based on well-considered decisions and not depression in the Netherlands."
In other words, van der Lee is trying to prove that there was no connection between euthanasia and depression.
Battin concludes that since the van der Lee study does not indicate whether requests for euthanasia by depressed people actually resulted in death by euthanasia, that she draws no conclusion from this data.
A study by Linda Ganzini, a co-author of the Battin article, and published in the British Medical Journal (2008) examined the prevalence of depressed people asking for assisted suicide in Oregon. Ganzini had 58 participants who had requested assisted suicide. She found that 26% of the participants were depressed or had "feelings of hopelessness".
The Ganzini study proves that depressed people are dying by assisted suicide in Oregon. The study links the fact that depressed people who request assisted suicide in Oregon are not being referred for a psychiatric or psychological assessment. In 2007, 49 people who were reported to have died by assisted suicide in Oregon, none of them were referred for a psychiatric or psychological assessment.
Euthanasia and assisted suicide is under-reported
The 2005 Netherlands report concludes that 80.2% of all euthanasia or assisted suicide deaths are reported.
A recent study that was published in the British Medical Journal (Oct 2010) on reporting of euthanasia in the Flanders region of Belgium found that only 52.8% of the euthanasia deaths were reported.
The study indicated that euthanasia deaths that were not reported were often "unconventional." For instance, a written request was not present, a palliative care consultation was not done, euthanasia was more often done by opioids or sedatives or both and the act was more often done by a nurse.
The most recent Belgium report indicates that the number of reported euthanasia deaths continues to increase and that concerns exist concerning the under-reporting of euthanasia deaths in the French region of Belgium.
The Slippery Slope
Battin claims that there is no evidence for a "slippery slope" effect in the Netherlands or Oregon. Battin seems to have redefined the term slippery slope.
Stephen Drake, the research analyst for the disability rights group Not Dead Yet made an excellent response to the "slippery slope" claim by Battin by stating:
"The term "slippery slope" has always included the idea that the practices of assisted suicide and euthanasia will expand beyond the original "target population." This has happened in the Netherlands, which has given the green light to both infanticide of disabled infants and facilitation of the suicides of some people with psychiatric labels."My conclusions concerning the Battin article, that is upheld by the suicide lobby as "proof" that euthanasia and assisted suicide is a "safe practice" have not only not changed but have been strengthened by recent studies that prove that Battin was wrong.
I stated when the Battin study was released and I re-iterate now:
"The way in which the study by Margaret Battin of the University of Utah, who is a strong supporter of legalizing assisted suicide was completed would leave one to question whether or not her research was done to simply prove her hypothesis. This is a study that, at best, can be referred to as propaganda."


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Submitted by Tom Miles on
Since 2007, when this page was first sketched into place, we've made dramatic improvements in our understanding of what terra preta is, what biochar is, and what it's function is in the soil. Some of the better references and resources are given below.
Biochar Testing Labs
- EPRIDA Marietta, Georgia
Online Resourced Dedicated to Characterizing Biochars
UC Davis Online Biochar Database
Soil and Materials Science Centers
For the latest articles from Scientific Journals go to Science Direct and search for Biochar Characteristics.
The International Biochar Initiative http://www.biochar-international.org/ has a great FAQ and set of characteristics information about Biochar.
Characteristics and Function of Charcoal
From: Makoto Ogawa, Effects of Soil Microbial Fertility by Charcoal in Soil
- Porous substance with high water and air holding capacity; Suitable habitat for some microbes and plant growth, good material for soil amendment, absorption of chemicals and humidity control
- Alkaline; Neutralization of acidic soil and improvement of chemical components of soil and selection of microorganisms
- Non organic matter ; Exclusion of saprophytes and propagation of autotrophic and symbiotic microorganisms, free living nitrogen fixing bacteria, root nodule bacteria, Frankia and some mycorrhizal fungi
- Low mineral content ;
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Folkeg replied on Permalink
Nutrient adsorption by fresh charcoal
As I understand it, adding fresh charcoal to the soil would have an initial effect of removing nutrients from the soil. After the sites are fillded up, the typical 'Terra Preta' effect would add on.
Adding nutrients to the char previous to the addition to soil would reduce/reverse this initial effect.
For example, adding urine.
Does anybody have any idea of the specific adsorption capacity for charcoal on nutrients?
Folke G
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ursted48 replied on Permalink
Nutrient absorbtion by fresh charcoal
I have run several experiments to see how much nurtients hardwood and softwood charcoal can absorb.
I have been able to store upto 10% w/w of a water soluble fertilizer solution on dry weight of charcoal.
At this level it could burn the root hairs on young plants if it were to be immediately released.
Fortunately the charcoal slowly releases these nutrients on an as needed basis to the plants.
Urine is rich in Nitrogen ( Ammonia, Urea ) and Phosphorus and binds well with charcoal. In some places charcoal urinals are used to reduce pollution and odor. The contents are then added to the compost heap.
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Rip Winkel replied on Permalink
Nutrient absorption
I am still learning a ton of stuff about biochar. But I do know that yes, you are right about raw or fresh biochar extracting the elements out of the surrounding soil initially. This takes a while to turn around, say 2 to 3 years. Each feedstock, however, and correct me if I am wrong, has a different chemical make up, even though the final product of pyrolysis is mostly carbon. Ergo it will have a different level of requirement in attracting elements. I am currently involved with an experiment using biochar that was treated (soaked) in Worm Biol, and biochar that was untreated. It has been in the soil one year, and in three weeks I will be taking soil samples for analysis. I will take samples again in one year's time. My hypothesis is that I will find the nutrients (elements) in the soil with treated biochar showing higher rates of availability than with the soil with untreated biochar. But I need to know if it is the Biol influencing this availability or if it is that the biochar was "satisfied" and that a change in nutrient availability is actually the result of the biochar additions.
Your comment was posted in 2007, so I am sure that there is a whole lot of information on this very subject that you can find.
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lorien replied on Permalink
Is Biochar a compost accelerator?
I live in the South of France near Toulouse. Around 4 years ago I stocked around 36 cubic metres of Plane Tree wood-chips about 2 to 3 finger size in the ruins of a building which had less than 2 centimetres of charcoal and a small quantity of broken tiles on the ground (bare earth) remaining from a fire that gutted the building around 10 years earlier. The wood-chips had been exposed to rainfall for around 2 years since the polythene covering had started to degrade with the sunlight. I noticed at that time that it was infested with wood-eating beetles, dark red in colour, around 5 centimetres long with a rhinoceros horn structure on the front of the head. I found a large number of them together with their larvae, around 3 centimetres long and about 1 centimetre thick. I ignored this for a couple of years but last October I decided to clear the area which had a generous growth of nettles and blackberries. I discovered that the wood-chips had been transformed into around 6 cubic metres of black compost, such as is sold around here as 'terreau', of a very high quality. I noticed particles of charcoal on the surface and throughout the mass and occasional beetle carcasses.
My experience with wood-chips suggests that this degree of decomposition is unusual without adding manure, urine, soil and other 'lighter' organic matter; and without turning the mass. I suspect that, with the help of the beetles to distribute the charcoal, the charcoal acted as a compost accelerator.
I find no reference to such an effect but my understanding of Biochar gives me the idea that this could be the case. I intend to repeat the experience with and without the application of more conventional compost accelerators. I will keep you informed.
Does anyone else report such an effect?
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ursted48 replied on Permalink
Biochar in compost
I have been using "campfire charcoal" in my wood chip pile, compost pile and the cow manure pile.
In all cases composting was grealty improved and speeded up. What was notable that the earthworms in the manure pile only lived in a narrow 10 to 15 cm band. However when ~5% screened ( < 1cm ) charcoal was mixed in,...the whole pile ~1/2 meter thick was infested with worms throughout. This happened within 4 weeks.
WOO's worms has been usiing 25% charcoal in vermicomposting with very good results. Just check th pH of the charcoal.
Earthworms don't like alkaline environments.
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Visitor replied on Permalink
tile in biochar may augment effect
I noticed that in the Amazonian terra preta there was reportedly large ammounts of pottery shards as well as charcoal. The intact pottery in the region was very advanced. I think the car came from these kilns AND I THINK THE POTTERY SHARDS ACTED IN A WAY SIMILAR TO THE BIOCHAR! A POROUS PLACE FOR MICROORGANISMS, WATER HOLDING, but maybe no sequestering of gasses or maybe so.
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Carmelo replied on Permalink
Ways tp avoid the alkalinity effect?
I read in the gardening with biochar section that using wood from bamboo, pine needles or Acacia will give biochar with negligible liming capacity. Is there a list of organic materials that will give biochar with little liming capacity? Are there ways to threat biochar to avoid this effect?
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I would like to express how deeply saddened and angered I am by the tragedy that occurred in my city, on September 11, 2001. She'll never be the same. I miss her. I miss the fact that I can no longer stand in the most beautiful buildings in the world and gaze down upon the Statue of Liberty and the Hudson River, that I can no longer look up and see the sleek brushed steel sides of the twin towers ablaze with the sun's reflection, that I no longer consider moving across the river just so I could look out the windows to see the most beautiful skyline ever built. I miss the faces of those nameless thousands that I met on the walkways and breezeways of the WTC -- the true heroes -- the creators who were the best and brightest the world had seen -- the ones who who were literally making much of the good that exists in the world, possible. I miss them most of all. But, now I am becoming angry -- not so much at the creatures that caused this, they are despicable -- like roaches, just step on them and be done with it. No, I am much more angry at the those who have disarmed our great nation and left it susceptible to vermin like these. They are the "intellectuals" in this country who dare to insinuate that we need to be tolerant of these murderers and their ideas, sensitive to their differences (differences like the fact that they want to murder all Americans!) and who hint that the US deserved this murderous act because of its productivity and hard earned wealth. I say to these creatures that when you cannot tell the difference between freedom and tyranny, justice and murder, peace and war -- you are refusing to see the difference between life and death. And since you cannot distinguish these things -- go live among Muslim extremists who wish to see the west destroyed and see if you can tell the difference. But don't stay here and enjoy the fruits of our ideals while you gnaw away at the roots of our great country. These "intellectuals" long have been inviting the death and destruction of war to come to the soil of the US. And now that it is here, they would have you focus on their evil guests. But don't be fooled by this. They, the hosts, are much more evil and dangerous. They are the ones from whom we need protection. And we need much different weapons to fight them than the savages who accepted their invitations. I implore you all to support The Ayn Rand Institute in this war. They are the manufacturer of moral arms -- the ones that we so desperately need to win this battle for life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. Their web site is http://www.aynrand.org. I would like to send a special thank you to Dr. Leonard Peikoff. Thank you for fighting for my world. Please see his excellent editorials and articles on the war at: http://www.aynrand.org/medialink/actofwar.html Kathryn Daley |
Contact email@example.com for any suggestions, questions or comments. The owners of NationWeb, Inc. are advocates of Objectivism and supporters of ARI. However, NationWeb is not an official representative of the philosophy of Objectivism. |


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Alternative real estate sectors luring investors in Asia Pacific
Investors in Asia Pacific are looking beyond offices and shopping malls for the next big thing.
Demand is shifting toward historically less-trodden areas of the property market that offer superior returns, something that has become increasingly important to property investors facing record-low yields around the world.
These alternative sectors include properties like data centres, student housing, self-storage, education and senior housing.
While investing in these properties can come with hurdles, robust returns and long-term stability are drawing interest across the region.
Last year, U.S. private equity firm TPG invested US$140 million in the Vietnam Australia International School, which has campuses in Ho Chi Minh City. Singapore's sovereign wealth fund GIC bought student housing blocks in Sydney from Frasers Property Australia and Sekisui House Australia for A$400 million.
"Although Asia Pacific's alternative real estate market is still relatively immature compared to Europe and the United States, interest is growing fast," says Rohit Hemnani, COO and Head of Alternatives, Capital Markets, JLL Asia Pacific.
A key driver of the demand: the region's broader fundamentals such as urban growth, the broad adoption of the Internet and an ageing population, where those aged 65 and above are projected to increase by 40,000 people per day over the next 10 years, according to a JLL report on the alternatives sectors.
Lure of strong returns
Alternatives sectors typically offer stronger returns than more traditional real estate. While the range can vary, estimated yields on alternatives, such as data centers, sit anywhere from five to eight percent in Tokyo, Sydney and Singapore, representing a healthy spread compared to traditional asset classes.
Regional demand drivers
It's not just returns. Stability is a factor.
Operating leases of aged care homes, schools, and data centers often extend over 20 years, providing a stable income stream that lessens the impact of market volatility.
Clearly, different countries present different opportunities. Education and student accommodation sectors are well-positioned to grow in Australia, China, India and Southeast Asia, Hemnani at JLL says.
The rise in ageing population means that the senior housing market will fare well in Japan and China, he says.
Despite the potential, Hemnani highlights that there are high barriers to entry.
"Typically, aged care and data centers are highly regulated by governments so managing them in accordance with local laws can be demanding," Hemnani says.
"In Asia Pacific, the various alternative sectors sit across different levels of maturity, so understanding market fundamentals and operational capabilities can also pose as a challenge," he says.


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Once there was a presidente who was very unjust to his people, and one day he became so angry that he wished he had horns so that he might frighten them. No sooner had he made this rash wish, than horns began to grow on his head.
He sent for a barber who came to his house to cut his hair, and as he worked the presidente asked:
"What do you see on my head?"
"I see nothing," answered the barber; for although he could see the horns plainly, he was afraid to say so.
Soon, however, the presidente put up his hands and felt the horns, and then when he inquired again the barber told him that he had two horns.
"If you tell anyone what you have seen, you shall be hanged," said the presidente as the barber started away, and he was greatly frightened.
When he reached home, the barber did not intend to tell anyone, for he was afraid; but as he thought of his secret more and more, the desire to tell someone became so strong that he knew he could not keep it. Finally he went to the field and dug a hole under some bamboo, and when the hole was large enough he crawled in and whispered that the presidente had horns. He then climbed out, filled up the hole, and went home.
By and by some people came along the road on their way to market, and as they passed the bamboo they stopped in amazement, for surely a voice came from the trees, and it said that the presidente had horns. These people hastened to market and told what they had heard, and the people there went to the bamboo to listen to the strange voice. They informed others, and soon the news had spread all over the town. The councilmen were told, and they, too, went to the bamboo. When they had heard the voice, they ran to the house of the presidente. But his wife said that he was ill and they could not see him.
By this time the horns had grown until they were one foot in length, and the presidente was so ashamed that he bade his wife tell the people that he could not talk. She told this to the councilmen when they came on the following day, but they replied that they must see him, for they had heard that he had horns, and if this were true he had no right to govern the people.
She refused to let them in, so they broke down the door. They saw the horns on the head of the presidente and killed him. For, they said, he was no better than an animal.


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10 Years Ago: Florida Georgia Line Sign With Republic Nashville
Ten years ago today, on July 16, 2012, one of Florida Georgia Line's biggest dreams came true. It was on that date that the duo, made up of Tyler Hubbard and Brian Kelley, inked their first major-label record deal, signing with Republic Nashville.
Hubbard and Kelley began as church musicians, before realizing that they wanted a career in country music instead -- and so, after they both graduated from Belmont University, they released their first EP, Anything Like Me, independently, in 2010. It'z Just What We Do, FGL's second EP, came out in 2012, after producer Joey Moi heard the pair performing at a county fair, realized their potential and offered to record a session with them.
When one of It'z Just What We Do's tracks, "Cruise," began receiving airplay on satellite radio and selling on iTunes, labels took interest, and it was a division of Big Machine Label Group, Republic Nashville, that ultimately signed Florida Georgia Line. Hubbard and Kelley officially released "Cruise" as a single in August of 2012 -- and the tune sold more than 7 million copies, making it the best-selling digital single of all time.
"Cruise" also helped FGL's major-label debut album, Here's to the Good Times, sell more than 2 million copies and sealed their fate as country music superstars.
"It's a surreal feeling to be a part of something so special and literally see our dreams coming true," Kelley tells The Boot of their success.
"Cruise" was just the starting point for Kelley and Hubbard, however: The pair went on to release seven more consecutive chart-topping singles and another platinum-selling album, Anything Goes. Their third project, Dig Your Roots, was released in August of 2016, followed by Can't Say I Ain't Country and an acoustic project in 2019, an EP in 2020 and an album, Life Rolls On, in 2021. To date, FGL have earned more than dozen No. 1 singles and platinum-selling songs.
Although the Florida Georgia Line guys are some of the hardest-working artists in country music — and now are working as solo artists, too — they give plenty of credit to their record label, which helped launch their success: "A lot of people can look around and tell everybody they built something or did something," Hubbard tells The Boot. "At the end of the day, we've got a huge team around us that's helping us out, and we pretty much know where it comes from.
"This is really something that's really beyond our wildest imagination and beyond our capability of creating on our own," he adds. "It's a beautiful thing."
WATCH: How Well Do You REALLY Know Florida Georgia Line?
LOOK: Florida Georgia Line's Best Live Shots


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Growing seedlings indoors has many advantages. It is possible to try plant varieties that are rare or have only recently been introduced. Many annually flowering plants such as petunias, begonias and celosias must be sown indoors.
The most important factors in successful growing are:
- adequate lighting,
- appropriate temperature,
- high humidity
- light and sound subsoil.
Even with the best seeds, results can be disappointing if these basic criteria are not met.
Consult the Horticultural leaflet on indoor seedlings.


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Highway by Dan Cassaro
As users of an ever-changing internet, it's amazing to see large project come together by someone that we've been following for years. In this case, I was lucky enough to get a sneak preview of a really great new typeface by Dan Cassaro, called Highway. Easily manipulated to create the look of lettering, but tight enough to use as ready-to-go typography, Highway fills the gap of versatility that many will find just perfect for their next project.
To get a bit more insight into the process and how the idea began to come together, I asked Dan a couple of questions.
I know that you took a fairly epic road trip around the country during the summer last year. How did you translate that into returning home to work on such a labor-intensive project?
I was really ready to get back to work full time when I got back to Brooklyn. Traveling every day is harder work than I thought it would be but most of the initial work on the typeface was actually done on the road. When I finally got home, it was actually really nice to zone out on a computer screen for hours on end. The back of a camper in a RV park in Arizona is a charming, but probably a less than ideal place to get work done. I'm not complaining though, I'll probably do it again this summer.
Your work speaks to an era of rustic, hand-made lettering and typographic styles. How did you let that influence your type designing process?
I have always been charmed by imperfect typography and lettering that is just a little bit off. We aren't robots and design isn't an assembly line and I find it much harder to relate to letters that look like a they came out of a machine.
There was a time before digital reproduction and desktop publishing when most advertising and signage had to be done by hand. Not just sign painters making show cards, but unskilled Joes just trying to draw a knock-off Futura in there shop window. That stuff is painted all over the guts of America and I got to see all of it this summer. I don't mean to be hokey but that stuff feels alive to me and inspires me more than any single designer ever has.
You know what kills me about all of this "unskilled" lettering? It's always PERFECTLY SPACED. I went to school for 4 years to learn how to kern a headline and Farmer Brown crushes it on his first try.
How did you find the process of creating a full typeface with swashes and ligatures? (as in, was it tedious, fun, annoying, the most amazing thing ever, etc?)
It was definitely a new thing for me, both the technical aspects and the whole "patience" thing. I am, by nature, a very fast worker and that isn't the best approach for making a system of letters. I thought it was going to feel like math class or something, but I ended up enjoying it; teaching my left and right brain to get along. I didn't make myself crazy over it for fear that I would suck all the personality out of the letters; nobody is going to be setting the Bible in this typeface. I was also lucky to have some help from James Edmondson with FontLab which made the whole process a lot easier.
Thanks to Dan for the sneak peek. If you'd like to get a copy of Highway for yourself, head on over to his website.
Also worth viewing:
Alicia typeface by Alexander Wright
Telegramme Studio
Jaime Van Wart
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TagsDan Cassaro, graphic-design, Typography, USA
03.22.12 in Found design, Typography by Liz Meyer
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Statement of Task
The Space Studies Board will organize a study, "Earth Observations from Space: A Community Assessment and Strategy for the Future." The study will generate consensus recommendations from the Earth and environmental science and applications community regarding science priorities, opportunities afforded by new measurement types and new vantage points, and a systems approach to space-based and ancillary observations that encompasses the research programs of NASA and the related operational programs of NOAA.
During this study, the committee will conduct the following tasks.
Review the status of the field to assess recent progress in resolving major scientific questions outlined in relevant prior NRC, NASA, and other relevant studies and in realizing desired predictive and applications capabilities via space-based Earth observations;
Develop a consensus of the top-level scientific questions that should provide the focus for Earth and environmental observations in the period 2005-2015;
Take into account the principal federal- and state-level users of these observations and identify opportunities and challenges to the exploitation of the data generated by Earth observations from space.
Recommend a prioritized list of measurements, and identify potential new space-based capabilities and supporting activities within NASA [Earth Science Enterprise] and NOAA [National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service] to support national needs for research and monitoring of the dynamic Earth system during the decade 2005-2015. In addition to elucidating the fundamental physical processes that underlie the interconnected issues of climate and global change, these needs include: weather forecasting, seasonal climate prediction, aviation safety, natural resources management, agricultural assessment, homeland security, and infrastructure planning.
Identify important directions that should influence planning for the decade beyond 2015. For example, the committee will consider what ground-based and in-situ capabilities are anticipated over the next 10-20 years and how future space-based observing systems might leverage these capabilities. The committee will also give particular attention to strategies for NOAA to evolve current capabilities while
meeting operational needs to collect, archive, and disseminate high quality data products related to weather, atmosphere, oceans, land, and the near-space environment.
The committee will address critical technology development requirements and opportunities; needs and opportunities for establishing and capitalizing on partnerships between NASA and NOAA and other public and private entities; and the human resource aspects of the field involving education, career opportunities, and public outreach. A minor but important part of the study will be the review of complementary initiatives of other nations in order to identify potential cooperative programs.


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Garvin Jabusch
About three weeks ago, I posted a piece called "RGS Energy, Tempered, Opportunistic Growth," an optimistic bit of coverage on one of our holdings, (RGSE), that included an 18-month price target of $10.00 per share. Since then, several developments and pieces of information have come to light that have caused us to revise our assessment of the company.
Thursday, July 3, a quiet half-market day, RGS Energy released a statement announcing plans to monetize its previously filed potential shelf offering; "RGS Energy (NASDAQ: RGSE) has entered into a definitive agreement to raise approximately $7.0 million in a private placement financing transaction. Under the terms of the agreement, RGS Energy will issue units consisting of an aggregate of 2,919,351 shares of its Class A common stock and warrants to purchase up to 1,313,708 additional shares of Class A common stock, at a price of $2.40 per unit." This deal has been offered to and accepted by as yet undisclosed buyers at well below RGSE's market price in the $2.90s on July 3. The market reacted unfavorably to this low self-valuation from RGSE, driving the share price down approximately 16 ½ percent in the two market days that have followed the announcement, but even so, the private placement valuation remains below market as of this writing.
It gets more interesting. Not only do participants receive this fire-sale valuation, but also, "[e]ach unit consists of one share of Class A common stock and a warrant to purchase 0.45 shares of Class A common stock at an exercise price of $3.19 per share. The warrants are exercisable beginning six months after issuance and for a period of five years thereafter." So participants are buying already in-the-money shares, and also getting up to 5 ½ more years to watch the company grow, risk free, before deciding whether to buy more shares at $3.19. Frankly, I'm surprised that management thinks little enough of their firm that they felt the need to offer such a cheap price and also such a fantastic sweetener to raise equity capital. Not knowing all the deal details, I may be missing something, but if this was the best valuation RGSE could get for equity, why didn't they use low-interest debt instead? As of last report, the company had zero long-term debt, a perfect position for a cash-flow positive business to fund operations on the cheap with some kind of note offering.
All in then, up to 6,137,936 dilutive RGSE shares may be sold at $2.40 and $3.19 per share, representing up to 13.65 percent dilution to the existing shareholders of the previously outstanding 44.97 million shares. This is in exchange for $6.4 million (net: of the $7mm raise, close to 8.6 percent, or $600,000, is going to fees and expenses) in "operating capital," and "debt repayment," and not necessarily so much for expansion, except a vague statement about proceeds "to support the launch of its residential leasing platform."
When we met with RGSE's CEO Kam Mofid on May 22, 2014, we asked him about the shelf filing that made this transaction a possibility. That day, he told us that a "shelf offering is filed, but it is to be used only opportunistically for tactical expansion." We understand that business needs can change even in just a six-week period but the terms of the execution of the shelf offering and the uses of capital as represented in the press release don't seem to agree with Mofid's in-person confidence in opportunistic growth via smart use of his war chest. And Mofid represented to us that RGSE has no debt except for a revolving credit line with Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), which in late May he told us they pay off in full every quarter. So in what sense can their press release be accurate about using proceeds to pay down debt? Only in the sense that they will pay off the SVB line something they were already doing with cash flow with the new capital. On the contrary, now would have been the time to take on debt rather than issue new equity, thus providing the opportunity to grow the firm to the point where they could get a much better valuation for its shares upon exercising the shelf offing in another year or two.
In the end, we can't help but feel that RGSE's newly announced sources and uses of capital conflict with the business approach as articulated to us by the firm's CEO less than two months before.
In the last post, I wrote that RGSE had every chance of hitting $10 per share by the end of 2015. That was based partially on the rapid growth of the solar installation industry, on our confidence in management ability to execute, and also partly on my assessment of RGSE's value relative to the total market capitalization of SolarCity (SCTY). Since that post, SCTY has announced plans for massive vertical integration of PV panel manufacturing of the most technologically advanced panels and at prices competitive with any panels out there. This has changed the fundamental nature of SCTY and renders moot my comparison of two installation-only firms.
Where SCTY has added a high-tech manufacturing firm to its business, RGSE has signed a supply agreement with SolarWorld to source panels for installation. We can't help but notice that it was SolarWorld that persuaded the Commerce Department to levy tariffs on Chinese solar panels imported into the U.S., thus doing more to slow the growth of RGSE's core business than has any other single entity. According to Forbes, SolarWorld has been called "a crazed agent provocateur" and "[a]t a recent dinner in San Francisco, Suntech chief technology officer Stuart Wenham, an Australian, was just as blunt. 'SolarWorld is a pariah…No one wants to deal with them.'" SolarWorld's continuing efforts to undermine the economic competitiveness of solar PV in the United States would seem to fly in the face of RGSE's long-term business interests.
Finally, then, we have to revise our price target. To external appearances, it seems RGSE may not be acting entirely within the best interests of the firm or its existing shareholders. Eschewing presumably cheap debt in favor of expensive, dilutive equity fundraising, and offering a sweetheart deal to get it done, seems to show an internal lack of confidence in the firm's valuation and near-term prospects. Nevertheless, the simple fact that RGSE finds itself in one of America's fastest-growing industries still bodes well for growth, and with the low current valuation, for the possibility of a takeover. We're lowering RGSE from "buy" to a "hold" rating, and lowering our 2015 price target to U.S. $5.00. While we're disappointed with current events, and we don't presently intend to accumulate more shares, we are not planning to immediately exit our position in RGSE, since, as our price target indicates, we do think there's upside potential from the current $2.53.
Disclosure: Green Alpha Advisors presently holds both RGSE and SCTY.
Garvin Jabusch is cofounder and chief investment officer of Green Alpha ® Advisors, LLC. He is co-manager of the Shelton Green Alpha Fund (NEXTX), of the Green Alpha ® Next Economy Index,
and of the Sierra Club Green Alpha Portfolio. He also authors the Sierra Club's green economics blog, "Green Alpha's Next Economy."


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If you've ever used the plugins packaged with Computer Music magazine, you may already be familiar with the guitar amp emulations of Kuassa, thanks to Amplifikation CM. Amplifikation Vermilion is, in fact, an evolution of CM's own free combo amp modeller, expanding on each of its elements to give you much more tone-shaping power.
The design and layout couldn't be more intuitive - it puts you standing in front of the amp, and what you'd do to a real amp is more or less exactly what you do to this virtual one. Being able to switch the cabs and mics via a drop-down menu, of course, makes things easier than they would be in real life.
Vermilion's general combo amp sound is tighter and punchier than those of Kuassa's other two plugins, those being Crème (aimed at catering to the big rock sound) and One (which includes foot pedal effects and delivers a more 'cover-all' sound).
Vermilion is built to suit the bluesy 'British' and clean country sounds, and its three amps aren't modelled on any specific hardware, being more generic in their approach, with a choice of Tube, Solid State and Clean.
The Tube amp has the warmth and fatness you'd expect from such a thing, as well as the bite, although it could deliver a bit more grunt when driven. The Solid State amp is tighter and punchier, with a great attack. The Clean amp comes third in the table, and it doesn't really keep up with the other two - you can actually get a much better clean sound from either of its bedfellows.
There are four tone controls on the amp: Low, Mid, High and Presence. These are joined by Gain and master Volume knobs, with which you can dial in your desired amount of drive. On top of that, you're given a choice of cabinets and mics along with control over their relative positions. Of the five cabs, three are really good. You can run two cabs in tandem, either in mono or stereo; in the latter mode, each can be panned, and they can also be put out of phase.
The four mics comprise dynamic (emulations of the Shure SM57 and Sennheiser 441), condenser (Studio Project C1) and ribbon (Crowley Tripp Naked Eye) types. The dynamic mics are pretty good, but the condenser is a bit on the thin side. The ribbon, however, is ace.
As with real amps, a lot of Vermilion's sound- shaping potential is down to mic positioning, and here you can drag the mics forward and back and from side to side, as well as putting them on and off axis, shaping the tone to great effect. Ideal additions would be a more distant ambient mic with a choice of rooms, and perhaps a phase-inverted mic on the rear of the combo for extra 'oomph'.
Colour me bad
What really makes Vermilion stand out is the breadth of subtle tones you can coax out of it. Its ranges aren't so extreme, so you can be quite precise with the controls without the amp suddenly going from soft to harsh. While such subtlety could be taken as a lack of sensitivity in other plugins, it works well for Vermilion because it's basic tone is so good.
So many amp sims try to cover too much guitar ground and end up being jacks of all trades. Amplifikation Vermilion sticks to the straight-up combo concept and thoroughly represents its nuances. Both the Brit and Country sounds equally embrace this style, and Kuassa have done well to create something that really delivers for both - and bang on budget.


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This article is more than 1 year old
Last major VHS supplier ejects from tape biz
It's been reel
Although closing credits for VHS finished rolling years ago, the once-standard home movie format is just now reaching the very end of its tape. The last major American VHS supplier is ditching the tape biz completely at the end of this year - just over a week away.
For most mainstream retailers, the gig was up shortly after A History of Violence, the last major Hollywood movie to be released on VHS, came out in 2006. Retail space was needed to punt more DVDs, which had steadily been cannibalizing the VHS market once the players became affordable.
But as shops unloaded their unwanted VHS inventory, Florida-based Distribution Video Audio was there to scoop up the refuse and make a tidy profit. Distribution told The LA Times it sold more than four million VHS videotapes during the last two years.
Its clients are mostly bargain stores, outlet malls, truck stops, and mom-and-pop operations - places that don't exactly cater to the bleeding edge of technology. Public libraries, military bases, and cruise ships were also buying VHS tapes, although nowadays are mostly only interested in DVDs.
"It's dead, this is it, this is the last Christmas, without a doubt," Distribution co-owner Ryan Kugler reportedly said. "I was the last one buying VHS and the last one selling it, and I'm done. Anything left in [the] warehouse we'll just give away or throw away."
Goodbye VHS. You outlasted Beta, Laserdisc and RCA's Capacitance Electronic Disc, but it was only a matter of time. Last one to watch that ALF Christmas Special tape, don't forget to rewind on your way out.
Presently, Distribution is biding it's time for the vultures to start circling the DVD format.
"The DVD will be obsolete in three or four years, no doubt about it. Everything will be Blu-ray," said Kugler. "The days of the DVD are numbered. And that is good news to me."
It's good news for big retailers too. Not only because folks will buy fancy new movie players - but because they'll need loads of expensive equipment to see and hear the benefits of newer digital formats.
According to research by LG Electronics the average person in the UK will spend £350 ($516) on home cinema equipment this Christmas.
It's not a push over for the forces of Blu-ray now the Microsoft-backed HD-DVD opposition has crumbled, though. Seventy four per cent of people are confused about the term Blu-ray. The format's punters obviously still have some work to do in pushing the "importance" of high(er)-definition gear on the masses. LG's polled 1,000 people over the age of 16 from England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. ®


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ISH started
According to Branding Director, Kim Klastrup, this symbol is a clear sign of the fact that this is the location of the world's leading manufacturer of pumps for the next five days.
- ISH is definitely the most important fair for us, offering us a unique opportunity to present our innovative products and establish contact to our customers, he said.
15 staff members have worked hard for about a week to make the exhibition stand ready for the opening. They have made a "water carpet" with running water and the trickling sound fills most of the stand, which is divided into three main areas, focusing on energy efficient and intelligent pumps, motors and wastewater treatment. In addition there is a coffee bar and a restaurant in which the guests may fortify themselves for a tour of the blue Grundfos country.
In one of the corners of the stand there is a small stage on which guests are invited to compete for being the quickest in installing an ALPHA2 pump with the patented AUTOADAPT feature.