text:
The theta function is the analytic function $\theta:U\to\mathbb{C}$ defined on the (open) right half-plane $U\subset\mathbb{C}$ by $\theta(\tau)=\sum_{n\in\mathbb{Z}}e^{-\pi n^2 \tau}$. It has the following important transformation property.
Theta reciprocity: $\theta(\tau)=\frac{1}{\sqrt{\tau}}\theta\left(\frac{1}{\tau}\right)$.
This theorem, while fundamentally analytic—the proof is just Poisson summation coupled with the fact that a Gaussian is its own Fourier transform—has serious arithmetic significance.
It is the key ingredient in the proof of the functional equation of the Riemann zeta function.
It expresses the automorphy of the theta function.
Theta reciprocity also provides an analytic proof (actually, the only proof, as far as I know) of the Landsberg-Schaar relation
$$\frac{1}{\sqrt{p}}\sum_{n=0}^{p-1}\exp\left(\frac{2\pi i n^2 q}{p}\right)=\frac{e^{\pi i/4}}{\sqrt{2q}}\sum_{n=0}^{2q-1}\exp\left(-\frac{\pi i n^2 p}{2q}\right)$$
where $p$ and $q$ are arbitrary positive integers. To prove it, apply theta reciprocity to $\tau=2iq/p+\epsilon$, $\epsilon>0$, and then let $\epsilon\to 0$.
This reduces to the formula for the quadratic Gauss sum when $q=1$:
$$\sum_{n=0}^{p-1} e^{2 \pi i n^2 / p} = \begin{cases} \sqrt{p} & \textrm{if } \; p\equiv 1\mod 4 \\\ i\sqrt{p} & \textrm{if } \; p\equiv 3\mod 4 \end{cases}$$
(where $p$ is an odd prime). From this, it's not hard to deduce Gauss's "golden theorem".
Quadratic reciprocity: $\left(\frac{p}{q}\right)\left(\frac{q}{p}\right)=(-1)^{(p-1)(q-1)/4}$ for odd primes $p$ and $q$.
For reference, this is worked out in detail in the paper "Applications of heat kernels on abelian groups: $\zeta(2n)$, quadratic reciprocity, Bessel integrals" by Anders Karlsson.
I feel like there is some deep mathematics going on behind the scenes here, but I don't know what.
Why should we expect theta reciprocity to be related to quadratic reciprocity? Is there a high-concept explanation of this phenomenon? If there is, can it be generalized to other reciprocity laws (like Artin reciprocity)?
Hopefully some wise number theorist can shed some light on this!


text:
See also:
– Director of National Intelligence Says US May Kill Americans Abroad
– Rep. Ron Paul on Obama seeking to assassinate 'US citizens' he labels as terrorist
– CIA Director Reveals Spec Ops Report: US Needs Hit Squads, 'Manhunting Agency'
WASHINGTON — The Obama administration has taken the extraordinary step of authorizing the targeted killing of an American citizen, the radical Muslim cleric Anwar al-Awlaki, who is believed to have shifted from encouraging attacks on the United States to directly participating in them, intelligence and counterterrorism officials said Tuesday.
Mr. Awlaki, who was born in New Mexico and spent years in the United States as an imam, is in hiding in Yemen. He has been the focus of intense scrutiny since he was linked to Maj. Nidal Malik Hasan, the Army psychiatrist accused of killing 13 people at Fort Hood, Tex., in November, and then to Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab, the Nigerian man charged with trying to blow up a Detroit-bound airliner on Dec. 25.
American counterterrorism officials say Mr. Awlaki is an operative of Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, the affiliate of the terror network in Yemen and Saudi Arabia. They say they believe that he has become a recruiter for the terrorist network, feeding prospects into plots aimed at the United States and at Americans abroad, the officials said.
It is extremely rare, if not unprecedented, for an American to be approved for targeted killing, officials said. A former senior legal official in the administration of George W. Bush said he did not know of any American who was approved for targeted killing under the former president.
But the director of national intelligence, Dennis C. Blair, told a House hearing in February that such a step was possible. "We take direct actions against terrorists in the intelligence community," he said. "If we think that direct action will involve killing an American, we get specific permission to do that." He did not name Mr. Awlaki as a target.
The step taken against Mr. Awlaki, which occurred earlier this year, is a vivid illustration of his rise to prominence in the constellation of terrorist leaders. But his popularity as a cleric, whose lectures on Islamic scripture have a large following among English-speaking Muslims, means any action against him could rebound against the United States in the larger ideological campaign against Al Qaeda.
The possibility that Mr. Awlaki might be added to the target list was reported by The Los Angeles Times in January, and Reuters reported on Tuesday that he was approved for capture or killing.
"The danger Awlaki poses to this country is no longer confined to words," said an American official, who like other current and former officials interviewed for this article spoke of the classified counterterrorism measures on the condition of anonymity. "He's gotten involved in plots."
The official added: "The United States works, exactly as the American people expect, to overcome threats to their security, and this individual — through his own actions — has become one. Awlaki knows what he's done, and he knows he won't be met with handshakes and flowers. None of this should surprise anyone."
As a general principle, international law permits the use of lethal force against individuals and groups that pose an imminent threat to a country, and officials said that was the standard used in adding names to the list of targets. In addition, Congress approved the use of military force against Al Qaeda after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. People on the target list are considered to be military enemies of the United States and therefore not subject to the ban on political assassination first approved by President Gerald R. Ford.
Both the C.I.A. and the military maintain lists of terrorists linked to Al Qaeda and its affiliates who are approved for capture or killing, former officials said. But because Mr. Awlaki is an American, his inclusion on those lists had to be approved by the National Security Council, the officials said.
At a panel discussion in Washington on Tuesday, Representative Jane Harman, Democrat of California and chairwoman of a House subcommittee on homeland security, called Mr. Awlaki "probably the person, the terrorist, who would be terrorist No. 1 in terms of threat against us."
By SCOTT SHANE
Published: April 6, 2010
Source: The New York Times

subset: commoncrawl


text:
WINSTON-SALEM, N.C. – More communities will be able to build their capacity to reduce and prevent substance abuse with funding from the North Carolina Coalition Initiative (NCCI).
The NCCI Coordinating Center of Wake Forest University Baptist Medical Center has announced the second cohort of communities that will receive funding. Eight local coalitions across the state will each receive community grants of up to $30,000 and participate in a year-long, nationally renowned training program to strengthen their ability to tackle this critical public health problem.
The NCCI is funded by a N.C. General Assembly appropriation through the N.C. Department of Health and Human Services, Division of Mental Health, Developmental Disabilities and Substance Abuse Services to support local substance abuse coalitions. The coordinating center provides direction and technical assistance.
The 2010-11 awardees are: Durham Together for Resilient Youth, Partnership for Substance Free Students in Buncombe County, Robeson County Substance Abuse Coalition, Washington County Substance Abuse Coalition, Northern Orange Partnership for Alcohol and Drug Free Youth, Community Engagement Team (Rutherford County), Watauga County Substance Abuse Prevention Collaboration, and Drug Free Moore County.
"NCCI coalitions will receive extensive training and technical assistance from expert trainers to help them determine the issues relevant to their community and the best strategies to use," said Mark Wolfson, Ph.D., NCCI's executive director. Wolfson is a professor of social sciences and health policy at Wake Forest Baptist with extensive experience conducting research on substance use, with a particular focus on the role of community and organizational factors in understanding alcohol and tobacco use by youth.
Community Anti-Drug Coalitions of America (CADCA), based in Washington, D.C., is a national partner in this effort and will provide a total of three weeks of intensive training over the next 12 months to help prepare the coalitions for the work ahead.
This is the second round of funding provided to local coalitions by NCCI since its inception in 2008. The first eight coalitions funded under this state initiative are now nearing completion of the program, and by all accounts have benefited greatly. "The training and technical assistance we received through the NCCI grant gave us the tools we needed to move beyond talking about preventing underage drinking to actually doing something about it in our community," said Louise Ackerman, coordinator of Alcohol & Substance Abuse Prevention of Catawba County, a coalition funded during the first round.
Wolfson said that "the NCCI evaluation shows that the first group of coalitions substantially strengthened their ability to implement evidence-based strategies designed to reduce substance abuse." This included work to promote law enforcement and institutional and public policies related to drinking and driving and youth access to alcohol in local communities.
"Another measure of NCCI's success is the degree to which community capacity building has been achieved. Local communities are now engaging with each other to pool resources to address local conditions involving substance abuse. There is a great momentum that has started across the state to recognize community mobilization efforts and build great partnerships," said Janice Petersen, Ph.D., the state's project administrator for the NCCI.
The NCCI's mission is to reduce substance abuse in communities by building the capacity of community coalitions to implement evidence-based, population-level prevention strategies. More information can be found on its web site at www.nc-coalition.com.
Media Relations
Bonnie Davis: email@example.com, 336-713-1597


text:
Dualband 17m/20m Moxon |
[Home][Shack][Projects][Tech Topics] |
When BS7H came up in May 2007, I knew I would need a better antenna to have a chance at working them from the East Coast. I had a 20m Moxon Rectangle stowed away in the shack that I had built very carefully and never put up. This article is not about the original construction of that antenna. There is plenty of good information on the mechanical construction of HF Moxon Rectangles using fiberglass fishing pole spreaders at the Moxon Antenna Project website. My spreader bracket is made of a plate of 6061 aluminum with four pieces of angle bolted to it that hold the 16 foot crappie poles from B'n'M. The finished antenna on a rotating mast.It's a nice looking antenna, light, and works very well on 20m. I put it up temporarily for the BS7H operation, but it worked so much better than my delta loop that I wanted to put it up permanently. The delta loop, though, had a matching network to put it on 17m, and I neither wanted to give up 17 nor put up a separate antenna for it, so I decided to design a matching network. The first step was to take the 14MHz Moxon model and run it on 18.1MHz to get the feed impedance. Well, I looked at the model and noticed there was no significant current in the reflector on 17m. I decided to stick a load in the middle of the reflector and see if I could get some current and to see what the pattern was when I did so. Element current distributionThis is the current distribution on the antenna without a load in the reflector compared to that with a -j490Ω load mid-reflector. I selected this load for optimum F/B at 18.1MHz over ground. A free space model shows a slightly different load to be optimum, maybe -j460Ω or so. Free space pattern comparison on 17m.These patterns are free space patterns for an antenna designed for 14.050MHz with AC6LA's Moxgen. Wire gauge is #18AWG (1mm). Free space gain of the antenna at 18.1MHz without the load in the reflector is about 3dBi, with just a few dB of F/B. With the load, the gain is a little over 6dBi and optimum 180 degree F/B is about 16-17dB. Not too shabby for adding a single capacitor. The impedance of the antenna is about 140+j500 Ω on 17m. Add a matching network to match that to 50 ohms, add some relays to switch between 17m and 20m, and we're done. A schematic of the antenna with dimensions.The schematic is also available as mox_schematic.pdf. There we have it, no fuss, no rats nest of wires, just a beam on an extra band with the addition of a few components. I'd recommend using a variable capacitor for the load and tweaking it if you want the best 17m performance. It's important to note that the voltages across the capacitors on 17m are high. At 100W, we're looking at 350V across the 18pF reflector load capacitor and 475V across the 44pF L-network capacitor. At full legal power on 17m, these voltages are about 1400V and 1800V respectively! Also note that the relay in the reflector will need to stand off the same voltage as the capacitor. I think if you were going to build this antenna to take full legal limit, you probably want to use a vacuum relay there. Many relays would stand off 350V at 18.1MHz, so you can use all sorts of things at 100W. I used some tiny 3A rated telco relays I had laying around. For the reflector load I used a small ceramic trimmer. The L-network consists of a hand-wound coil and a small air variable. The reflector load is very light and so I just let the reflector support it. The reflector load and homebrew housing.The relay and capacitor for the reflector are housed in a taped-together pair of black plastic caps from iced tea bottles. I wanted to be absolutely sure to decouple the DC power wire for the relay, so I used a good choke on the wire right at the reflector. I have some 3C8 material Ferroxcube pot cores and they have a big resistive component at 18MHz and work great for this. Lots of impedance and you don't have to worry about resonances as much. I didn't want to spend a lot of time tuning and tweaking this antenna, so I tried to eliminate as many confounding factors as I could. I didn't want a wire running from near the high-voltage feedpoint to near the high-voltage-at-a-different-phase reflector without some good chokes on it. Feedpoint L-network and balun.The L-network and the choke balun (eight turns of small diameter coax on a Fair-Rite suppression core) require an extra fiberglass support. Fortunately (?) I broke another fishing pole when I was putting up my rotatable flag antenna, so I had a couple of sections available as a support. Interior view of L-network unit with relays.Through careful pre-tuning of the matching network into a lumped element RL load of 140+j500, I managed to get SWR under 2:1 across 17m with no further adjustment. SWR is a worse than usual indicator that the antenna is working, of course... it would actually have a similar SWR if it weren't operating as a beam, so I set up my MFJ-259B with a little whip antenna about 1.5 wavelengths away and checked the F/B with a step attenuator. The antenna is certainly directional and the 180 degree F/B is about 14dB; not as good as it could be, but this antenna is a little hard to get up and down in my small backyard, so I'm going to live with it for now. This one is a pretty worthwhile modification. If you run 100W and have already built a 20m Moxon, it's a simple and cheap way to get on 17m as well. It eliminates the adjacent band problem that Cebik mentions in his Moxon pages. It would probably work for a 17/15m Moxon as well with suitable component changes. In fact, you could build a 20m/17m/15m tribander with equivalent performance on 17m and 15m if you used a -j950Ω (8pF) load for 15m. The issue there would be trying to match and load within reason... the feed impedance of the 20m Moxon used on 15m is 330+j1000Ω and the capacitor voltages for feedpoint/reflector are about 1000V/600V at **100W**!! 20m performance is totally unaffected by the additions with the exception of a small reliability hit due to the relays. I had some dirty-relay issues, I think, with some attendant signal dropouts, but I think that may have just been due to relay age and disuse. Cycling the relays a dozen times rapidly seems to have fixed it. I had originally designed an LC network for the reflector to automatically provide both a resonant short on 20m and a -j490Ω load on 17m, but the 20m performance took a hit over the width of the band, so I scrapped that idea before I got around to designing an auto-magical matching network as well... might be a possibility for a pair of narrow bands, though... 17m/12m might work out. Anyway, this antenna is at 30 feet providing a far superior replacement for my 20m/17m delta loop and I didn't have to lose 17m to get beam performance. |
over here? |


text:
strength which in turn affects your coordination. As part of the natural aging process, this disease, sarcopenia, is most commonly seen in inactive people but it also affects those who remain physically active throughout their lives.
Now UC Berkeley researchers have discovered that oxytocin – the "trust hormone" associated with maternal nurturing, social attachments, childbirth and sex – may combat this age-related muscle wasting. Their new study was recently published in Nature Communications.
Role in Muscle Regeneration
Led by associate professor of bioengineering Irina Conboy, the researchers found in mice that oxytocin is required to maintain healthy muscles, but the level of oxytocin in the blood and the number of oxytocin receptors in muscle stem cells naturally reduce with age. For instance, old (18 to 24 months) mice were found to have 3 times lower circulating levels of oxytocin than young (2 to 4 months) mice.
'Extra oxytocin boosts aged tissue stem cells without making muscle stem cells divide uncontrollably.' –Wendy Cousin, Scientist
The research team performed a series of experiments using young and old mice to better understand oxytocin's role in muscle repair. They injected the mice daily with oxytocin (or a control solution) under the skin for nine consecutive days, while causing a muscle injury midway on day 4. The researchers found that the old mice that received the oxytocin were able to repair their muscle injury at a level comparable to the young mice – far better than the old control group that didn't get oxytocin. Systemic administration of oxytocin appears to rapidly improve muscle regeneration by enhancing aged muscle stem cell proliferation.
In contrast, the young mice already had sufficient levels of oxytocin and efficient muscle regeneration, so the oxytocin injections had no significant effect. This is important since most molecules that boost tissue repair are also associated with an increased risk of cancer.
"This is good because it demonstrates that extra oxytocin boosts aged tissue stem cells without making muscle stem cells divide uncontrollably," explained Wendy Cousin, a senior scientist in Conboy's lab, in a press release.
The researchers also performed similar experiments using mice with an inactivated gene for oxytocin and control mice. At the young age of 3 months, the two groups of mice appeared to have comparable muscle mass and repair efficiency after a muscle injury. However, muscle atrophy and a significant decline in muscle regeneration were observed for the 1-year old adult mice with the disabled oxytocin gene, signifying premature aging due to a lack of oxytocin.
It is unclear how long it will take the researchers to move beyond mice studies to human use. However, oxytocin is already approved by the FDA for clinical use in humans for other applications. For instance, oxytocin is commonly used to help increase contractions and control bleeding during childbirth. So getting approval for human studies should be straightforward once the reseachers are ready.
Conboy's research team is ultimately interested in applications beyond just maintaining healthy muscles. For instance, they are also investigating whether oxytocin could become a viable alternative to hormone replacement therapy to impede the symptoms of male and female aging. They believe that aging is the underlying cause of a number of chronic diseases, including Parkinson's and Type 2 diabetes.
Oxytocin Hype
In fact, researchers around the world are studying the use of oxytocin for seemingly every condition imaginable, including using oxytocin nasal spray to alleviate symptoms associated with mental disorders such as autism, schizophrenia and dementia. However, this research currently demonstrates mixed and inconsistent results, particularly regarding oxytocin's influence on social skills.
The current excitement about oxytocin, particularly as a remedy for autism, could lead to a dangerous situation given the widespread availability of oxytocin supplements – as an accelerator spray, sublingual liquid that is absorbed under the tongue, pills and mouth lozenges. It is important to consult your doctor before taking oxytocin.


text:
Try, for a moment, to envisage a world without countries. Imagine a map not divided into neat, coloured patches, each with clear borders, governments, laws. Try to describe anything our society does – trade, travel, science, sport, maintaining peace and security – without mentioning countries. Try to describe yourself: you have a right to at least one nationality, and the right to change it, but not the right to have none.
Those coloured patches on the map may be democracies, dictatorships or too chaotic to be either, but virtually all claim to be one thing: a nation state, the sovereign territory of a "people" or nation who are entitled to self-determination within a self-governing state. So says the United Nations, which now numbers 193 of them.
And more and more peoples want their own state, from Scots voting for independence to jihadis declaring a new state in the Middle East. Many of the big news stories of the day, from conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine to rows over immigration and membership of the European Union, are linked to nation states in some way.
Even as our economies globalise, nation states remain the planet's premier political institution. Large votes for nationalist parties in this year's EU elections prove nationalism remains alive – even as the EU tries to transcend it.
Yet there is a growing feeling among economists, political scientists and even national governments that the nation state is not necessarily the best scale on which to run our affairs. We must manage vital matters like food supply and climate on a global scale, yet national agendas repeatedly trump the global good. At a smaller scale, city and regional administrations often seem to serve people better than national governments.
How, then, should we organise ourselves? Is the nation state a natural, inevitable institution? Or is it a dangerous anachronism in a globalised world?
These are not normally scientific questions – but that is changing. Complexity theorists, social scientists and historians are addressing them using new techniques, and the answers are not always what you might expect. Far from timeless, the nation state is a recent phenomenon. And as complexity keeps rising, it is already mutating into novel political structures. Get set for neo-medievalism.
Before the late 18th century there were no real nation states, says John Breuilly of the London School of Economics. If you travelled across Europe, no one asked for your passport at borders; neither passports nor borders as we know them existed. People had ethnic and cultural identities, but these didn't really define the political entity they lived in.
That goes back to the anthropology, and psychology, of humanity's earliest politics. We started as wandering, extended families, then formed larger bands of hunter-gatherers, and then, around 10,000 years ago, settled in farming villages. Such alliances had adaptive advantages, as people cooperated to feed and defend themselves.
But they also had limits. Robin Dunbar of the University of Oxford has shown that one individual can keep track of social interactions linking no more than around 150 people. Evidence for that includes studies of villages and army units through history, and the average tally of Facebook friends.
But there was one important reason to have more friends than that: war. "In small-scale societies, between 10 and 60 per cent of male deaths are attributable to warfare," says Peter Turchin of the University of Connecticut at Storrs. More allies meant a higher chance of survival.
Turchin has found that ancient Eurasian empires grew largest where fighting was fiercest, suggesting war was a major factor in political enlargement. Archaeologist Ian Morris of Stanford University in California reasons that as populations grew, people could no longer find empty lands where they could escape foes. The losers of battles were simply absorbed into the enemy's domain – so domains grew bigger.
How did they get past Dunbar's number? Humanity's universal answer was the invention of hierarchy. Several villages allied themselves under a chief; several chiefdoms banded together under a higher chief. To grow, these alliances added more villages, and if necessary more layers of hierarchy.
Hierarchies meant leaders could coordinate large groups without anyone having to keep personal track of more than 150 people. In addition to their immediate circle, an individual interacted with one person from a higher level in the hierarchy, and typically eight people from lower levels, says Turchin.
These alliances continued to enlarge and increase in complexity in order to perform more kinds of collective actions, says Yaneer Bar-Yam of the New England Complex Systems Institute in Cambridge, Massachusetts. For a society to survive, its collective behaviour must be as complex as the challenges it faces – including competition from neighbours. If one group adopted a hierarchical society, its competitors also had to. Hierarchies spread and social complexity grew.
Larger hierarchies not only won more wars but also fed more people through economies of scale, which enabled technical and social innovations such as irrigation, food storage, record-keeping and a unifying religion. Cities, kingdoms and empires followed.
But these were not nation states. A conquered city or region could be subsumed into an empire regardless of its inhabitants' "national" identity. "The view of the state as a necessary framework for politics, as old as civilisation itself, does not stand up to scrutiny," says historian Andreas Osiander of the University of Leipzig in Germany.
One key point is that agrarian societies required little actual governing. Nine people in 10 were peasants who had to farm or starve, so were largely self-organising. Government intervened to take its cut, enforce basic criminal law and keep the peace within its undisputed territories. Otherwise its main role was to fight to keep those territories, or acquire more.
Even quite late on, rulers spent little time governing, says Osiander. In the 17th century Louis XIV of France had half a million troops fighting foreign wars but only 2000 keeping order at home. In the 18th century, the Dutch and Swiss needed no central government at all. Many eastern European immigrants arriving in the US in the 19th century could say what village they came from, but not what country: it didn't matter to them.
Before the modern era, says Breuilly, people defined themselves "vertically" by who their rulers were. There was little horizontal interaction between peasants beyond local markets. Whoever else the king ruled over, and whether those people were anything like oneself, was largely irrelevant.
Such systems are very different from today's states, which have well-defined boundaries filled with citizens. In a system of vertical loyalties, says Breuilly, power peaks where the overlord lives and peters out in frontier territories that shade into neighbouring regions. Ancient empires are coloured on modern maps as if they had firm borders, but they didn't. Moreover, people and territories often came under different jurisdictions for different purposes.
Such loose control, says Bar-Yam, meant pre-modern political units were only capable of scaling up a few simple actions such as growing food, fighting battles, collecting tribute and keeping order. Some, like the Roman Empire, did this on a very large scale. But complexity – the different actions society could collectively perform – was relatively low.
Complexity was limited by the energy a society could harness. For most of history that essentially meant human and animal labour. In the late Middle Ages, Europe harnessed more, especially water power. This boosted social complexity – trade increased, for example– requiring more government. A decentralised feudal system gave way to centralised monarchies with more power.
But these were still not nation states. Monarchies were defined by who ruled them, and rulers were defined by mutual recognition – or its converse, near-constant warfare. In Europe, however, as trade grew, monarchs discovered they could get more power from wealth than war.
In 1648, Europe's Peace of Westphalia ended centuries of war by declaring existing kingdoms, empires and other polities "sovereign": none was to interfere in the internal affairs of others. This was a step towards modern states – but these sovereign entities were still not defined by their peoples' national identities. International law is said to date from the Westphalia treaty, yet the word "international" was not coined until 132 years later.
By then Europe had hit the tipping point of the industrial revolution. Harnessing vastly more energy from coal meant that complex behaviours performed by individuals, such as weaving, could be amplified, says Bar-Yam, producing much more complex collective behaviours.
This demanded a different kind of government. In 1776 and 1789, revolutions in the US and France created the first nation states, defined by the national identity of their citizens rather than the bloodlines of their rulers. According to one landmark history of the period, says Breuilly, "in 1800 almost nobody in France thought of themselves as French. By 1900 they all did." For various reasons, people in England had an earlier sense of "Englishness", he says, but it was not expressed as a nationalist ideology.
By 1918, with the dismemberment of Europe's last multinational empires such as the Habsburgs in the first world war, European state boundaries had been redrawn largely along cultural and linguistic lines. In Europe at least, the nation state was the new norm.
Part of the reason was a pragmatic adaptation of the scale of political control required to run an industrial economy. Unlike farming, industry needs steel, coal and other resources which are not uniformly distributed, so many micro-states were no longer viable. Meanwhile, empires became unwieldy as they industrialised and needed more actual governing. So in 19th-century Europe, micro-states fused and empires split.
These new nation states were justified not merely as economically efficient, but as the fulfilment of their inhabitants' national destiny. A succession of historians has nonetheless concluded that it was the states that defined their respective nations, and not the other way around.
France, for example, was not the natural expression of a pre-existing French nation. At the revolution in 1789, half its residents did not speak French. In 1860, when Italy unified, only 2.5 per cent of residents regularly spoke standard Italian. Its leaders spoke French to each other. One famously said that, having created Italy, they now had to create Italians – a process many feel is still taking place.
Sociologist Siniša Maleševic of University College Dublin in Ireland believes that this "nation building" was a key step in the evolution of modern nation states. It required the creation of an ideology of nationalism that emotionally equated the nation with people's Dunbar circle of family and friends.
That in turn relied heavily on mass communication technologies. In an influential analysis, Benedict Anderson of Cornell University in New York described nations as "imagined" communities: they far outnumber our immediate circle and we will never meet them all, yet people will die for their nation as they would for their family.
Such nationalist feelings, he argued, arose after mass-market books standardised vernaculars and created linguistic communities. Newspapers allowed people to learn about events of common concern, creating a large "horizontal" community that was previously impossible. National identity was also deliberately fostered by state-funded mass education.
The key factor driving this ideological process, Maleševic says, was an underlying structural one: the development of far-reaching bureaucracies needed to run complex industrialised societies. For example, says Breuilly, in the 1880s Prussia became the first government to pay unemployment benefits. At first they were paid only in a worker's native village, where identification was not a problem. As people migrated for work, benefits were made available anywhere in Prussia. "It wasn't until then that they had to establish who a Prussian was," he says, and they needed bureaucracy to do it. Citizenship papers, censuses and policed borders followed.
That meant hierarchical control structures ballooned, with more layers of middle management. Such bureaucracy was what really brought people together in nation-sized units, argues Maleševic. But not by design: it emerged out of the behaviour of complex hierarchical systems. As people do more kinds of activities, says Bar-Yam, the control structure of their society inevitably becomes denser.
In the emerging nation state, that translates into more bureaucrats per head of population. Being tied into such close bureaucratic control also encouraged people to feel personal ties with the state, especially as ties to church and village declined. As governments exerted greater control, people got more rights, such as voting, in return. For the first time, people felt the state was theirs.
Once Europe had established the nation state model and prospered, says Breuilly, everyone wanted to follow suit. In fact it's hard now to imagine that there could be another way. But is a structure that grew spontaneously out of the complexity of the industrial revolution really the best way to manage our affairs?
According to Brian Slattery of York University in Toronto, Canada, nation states still thrive on a widely held belief that "the world is naturally made of distinct, homogeneous national or tribal groups which occupy separate portions of the globe, and claim most people's primary allegiance". But anthropological research does not bear that out, he says. Even in tribal societies, ethnic and cultural pluralism has always been widespread. Multilingualism is common, cultures shade into each other, and language and cultural groups are not congruent.
Moreover, people always have a sense of belonging to numerous different groups based on region, culture, background and more. "The claim that a person's identity and well-being is tied in a central way to the well-being of the national group is wrong as a simple matter of historical fact," says Slattery.
Perhaps it is no wonder, then, that the nation-state model fails so often: since 1960 there have been more than 180 civil wars worldwide.
Such conflicts are often blamed on ethnic or sectarian tensions. Failed states, such as Syria right now, are typically riven by violence along such lines. According to the idea that nation states should contain only one nation, such failures have often been blamed on the colonial legacy of bundling together many peoples within unnatural boundaries.
But for every Syria or Iraq there is a Singapore, Malaysia or Tanzania, getting along okay despite having several "national" groups. Immigrant states in Australia and the Americas, meanwhile, forged single nations out of massive initial diversity.
What makes the difference? It turns out that while ethnicity and language are important, what really matters is bureaucracy. This is clear in the varying fates of the independent states that emerged as Europe's overseas empires fell apart after the second world war.
According to the mythology of nationalism, all they needed was a territory, a flag, a national government and UN recognition. In fact what they really needed was complex bureaucracy.
Some former colonies that had one became stable democracies, notably India. Others did not, especially those such as the former Belgian Congo, whose colonial rulers had merely extracted resources. Many of these became dictatorships, which require a much simpler bureaucracy than democracies.
Dictatorships exacerbate ethnic strife because their institutions do not promote citizens' identification with the nation. In such situations, people fall back on trusted alliances based on kinship, which readily elicit Dunbar-like loyalties. Insecure governments allied to ethnic groups favour their own, while grievances among the disfavoured groups grow – and the resulting conflict can be fierce.
Recent research confirms that the problem is not ethnic diversity itself, but not enough official inclusiveness. Countries with little historic ethnic diversity are now having to learn that on the fly, as people migrate to find jobs within a globalised economy.
How that pans out may depend on whether people self-segregate. Humans like being around people like themselves, and ethnic enclaves can be the result. Jennifer Neal of Michigan State University in East Lansing has used agent-based modelling to look at the effect of this in city neighbourhoods. Her work suggests that enclaves promote social cohesion, but at the cost of decreasing tolerance between groups. Small enclaves in close proximity may be the solution.
But at what scale? Bar-Yam says communities where people are well mixed – such as in peaceable Singapore, where enclaves are actively discouraged – tend not to have ethnic strife. Larger enclaves can also foster stability. Using mathematical models to correlate the size of enclaves with the incidences of ethnic strife in India, Switzerland and the former Yugoslavia, he found that enclaves 56 kilometres or more wide make for peaceful coexistence – especially if they are separated by natural geographical barriers,
Switzerland's 26 cantons, for example, which have different languages and religions, meet Bar-Yam's spatial stability test – except one. A French-speaking enclave in German-speaking Berne experienced the only major unrest in recent Swiss history. It was resolved by making it a separate canton, Jura, which meets the criteria.
Again, though, ethnicity and language are only part of the story. Lars-Erik Cederman of the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich argues that Swiss cantons have achieved peace not by geographical adjustment of frontiers, but by political arrangements giving cantons considerable autonomy and a part in collective decisions.
Similarly, using a recently compiled database to analyse civil wars since 1960, Cederman finds that strife is indeed more likely in countries that are more ethnically diverse. But careful analysis confirms that trouble arises not from diversity alone, but when certain groups are systematically excluded from power.
Governments with ethnicity-based politics were especially vulnerable. The US set up just such a government in Iraq after the 2003 invasion. Exclusion of Sunni by Shiites led to insurgents declaring a Sunni state in occupied territory in Iraq and Syria. True to nation-state mythology, it rejects the colonial boundaries of Iraq and Syria, as they force dissimilar "nations" together.
Yet the solution cannot be imposing ethnic uniformity. Historically, so-called ethnic cleansing has been uniquely bloody, and "national" uniformity is no guarantee of harmony. In any case, there is no good definition of an ethnic group. Many people's ethnicities are mixed and change with the political weather: the numbers who claimed to be German in the Czech Sudetenland territory annexed by Hitler changed dramatically before and after the war. Russian claims to Russian-speakers in eastern Ukraine now may be equally flimsy.
Both Bar-Yam's and Cederman's research suggests one answer to diversity within nation states: devolve power to local communities, as multicultural states such as Belgium and Canada have done.
"We need a conception of the state as a place where multiple affiliations and languages and religions may be safe and flourish," says Slattery. "That is the ideal Tanzania has embraced and it seems to be working reasonably well." Tanzania has more than 120 ethnic groups and about 100 languages.
In the end, what may matter more than ethnicity, language or religion is economic scale. The scale needed to prosper may have changed with technology – tiny Estonia is a high-tech winner – but a small state may still not pack enough economic power to compete.
That is one reason why Estonia is such an enthusiastic member of the European Union. After the devastating wars in the 20th century, European countries tried to prevent further war by integrating their basic industries. That project, which became the European Union, now primarily offers member states profitable economies of scale, through manufacturing and selling in the world's largest single market.
What the EU fails to inspire is nationalist-style allegiance – which Maleševic thinks nowadays relies on the "banal" nationalism of sport, anthems, TV news programmes, even song contests. That means Europeans' allegiances are no longer identified with the political unit that handles much of their government.
Ironically, says Jan Zielonka of the University of Oxford, the EU has saved Europe's nation states, which are now too small to compete individually. The call by nationalist parties to "take back power from Brussels", he argues, would lead to weaker countries, not stronger ones.
He sees a different problem. Nation states grew out of the complex hierarchies of the industrial revolution. The EU adds another layer of hierarchy – but without enough underlying integration to wield decisive power. It lacks both of Maleševic's necessary conditions: nationalist ideology and pervasive integrating bureaucracy.
Even so, the EU may point the way to what a post-nation-state world will look like.
Zielonka agrees that further integration of Europe's governing systems is needed as economies become more interdependent. But he says Europe's often-paralysed hierarchy cannot achieve this. Instead he sees the replacement of hierarchy by networks of cities, regions and even non-governmental organisations. Sound familiar? Proponents call it neo-medievalism.
"The future structure and exercise of political power will resemble the medieval model more than the Westphalian one," Zielonka says. "The latter is about concentration of power, sovereignty and clear-cut identity." Neo-medievalism, on the other hand, means overlapping authorities, divided sovereignty, multiple identities and governing institutions, and fuzzy borders.
Anne-Marie Slaughter of Princeton University, a former US assistant secretary of state, also sees hierarchies giving way to global networks primarily of experts and bureaucrats from nation states. For example, governments now work more through flexible networks such as the G7 (or 8, or 20) to manage global problems than through the UN hierarchy.
Ian Goldin, head of the Oxford Martin School at the University of Oxford, which analyses global problems, thinks such networks must emerge. He believes existing institutions such as UN agencies and the World Bank are structurally unable to deal with problems that emerge from global interrelatedness, such as economic instability, pandemics, climate change and cybersecurity – partly because they are hierarchies of member states which themselves cannot deal with these global problems. He quotes Slaughter: "Networked problems require a networked response."
Again, the underlying behaviour of systems and the limits of the human brain explain why. Bar-Yam notes that in any hierarchy, the person at the top has to be able to get their head around the whole system. When systems are too complex for one human mind to grasp, he argues that they must evolve from hierarchies into networks where no one person is in charge.
Where does this leave nation states? "They remain the main containers of power in the world," says Breuilly. And we need their power to maintain the personal security that has permitted human violence to decline to all-time lows.
Moreover, says Dani Rodrik of Princeton's Institute for Advanced Study, the very globalised economy that is allowing these networks to emerge needs something or somebody to write and enforce the rules. Nation states are currently the only entities powerful enough to do this.
Yet their limitations are clear, both in solving global problems and resolving local conflicts. One solution may be to pay more attention to the scale of government. Known as subsidiarity, this is a basic principle of the EU: the idea that government should act at the level where it is most effective, with local government for local problems and higher powers at higher scales. There is empirical evidence that it works: social and ecological systems can be better governed when their users self-organise than when they are run by outside leaders.
However, it is hard to see how our political system can evolve coherently in that direction. Nation states could get in the way of both devolution to local control and networking to achieve global goals. With climate change, it is arguable that they already have.
There is an alternative to evolving towards a globalised world of interlocking networks, neo-medieval or not, and that is collapse. "Most hierarchical systems tend to become top-heavy, expensive and incapable of responding to change," says Marten Scheffer of Wageningen University in the Netherlands. "The resulting tension may be released through partial collapse." For nation states, that could mean anything from the renewed pre-eminence of cities to Iraq-style anarchy. An uncertain prospect, but there is an upside. Collapse, say some, is the creative destruction that allows new structures to emerge.
Like it or not, our societies may already be undergoing this transition. We cannot yet imagine there are no countries. But recognising that they were temporary solutions to specific historical situations can only help us manage a transition to whatever we need next. Whether or not our nations endure, the structures through which we govern our affairs are due for a change. Time to start imagining.


text:
Now that the excellent a7s Mark III video recording mirrorless camera has been out for over six months, it is time to revisit the slow motion component and see what quality we can expect from the Sony a7s III Slow Motion Samples. Many have praised the 4k 120fps mode which is heavily detailed, low noise and suffers from only a very small crop factor that is hardly a problem.
We looked at the Full HD 1080p 240fps mode on the camera and it was clear it did not match the 120fps 4k mode as it was not only less detailed but full of aliasing and moire if you looked for it. It was clear the camera was not up to professional standards when in this mode which is to be expected from a full-frame sensor cropping to 1080p. That said, this camera is a powerhouse that easily takes the mantle as Sony's best mirrorless compact video camera.


text:
JOS, Nigeria (Morning Star News) – Muslim herdsmen killed 15 Christians in Nigeria's Kaduna state Saturday morning (Sept. 28), two days after suspected Islamic extremists in Yobe state killed an Anglican pastor and his son, sources said.
The ethnic Fulani Muslims in Kaduna state in central Nigeria, where attacks against Christians have increased markedly in the past year with the aid of outside Muslim extremists, invaded predominantly Christian Zangang village in the Kaura Local Government Area from the east and south, "killing the villagers and burning down houses," said the Rev. Yakubu Gandu Nkut.
"The Fulani Muslim herdsmen lay siege to the village, while at the same time attacking Christians there using guns to kill and burn down their houses," Nkut told Morning Star News. "They attacked the village between the hours of 6 and 8 a.m."
Nkut, pastor of an Evangelical Church Winning All (ECWA) congregation in Zankan, about five kilometers (three miles) from Zangang, said the gunmen also had machetes and knives. While a Kaduna state police spokesman said 11 were killed, Nkut gave the names of 15 Christians slain: Christopher Bakwap, Benjamen Ganda, Ladi Madugu, Adam Yakubu, Julius Barnabas, Garba Kushuwah, Martha Musa, Michael Aboi, Gaje Lufuwai, Kefas Yusfu, Dauda Yusu, Joshua Bikau, Andrew Bikai, Sheying Immanuel and Gideon Adamu.
Kumai Badu, chairman of Kaura Local Government Council, told Morning Star News by phone that 15 Christians were killed, several others were wounded and hundreds were displaced. Those who have fled have taken refuge in Manchok, he said.
The attack was the third this year by Muslim herdsmen on Zangang village, sources said. In those assaults, Muslim Fulani herdsmen killed "several" Christians and also destroyed homes, they said.
Anglicans Killed
In Yobe state in northeast Nigeria, Islamic extremists killed an Anglican priest, his son and the village head in the wee hours of Thursday morning (Sept. 26) and used explosives to set church building and homes on fire, sources said.
Ibrahim Yohanna, son of the slain Rev. Yohanna Agom, told Morning Star News by phone that the assailants who attacked his family in Dorowa village were members of the Islamic extremist group Boko Haram, which has reportedly killed more than 1,700 people since 2010 in its campaign to destabilize the Nigerian government and establish a strict version or sharia (Islamic law) in the country.
"The Boko Haram gunmen woke us up, asked us to lie down in front of the church, and tied our hands with rope," Yohanna said. "They then set fire on the church and our house and killed my father" and Dauda Yohanna, his brother.
Phone service to Yobe state was cut in the military response to Islamic extremist attacks before Yohanna, who said he was able to flee into the darkness while the gunmen's attention was on focused on the burning church building, could give the name of the third slain Christian. Today police reportedly said the third man killed was a village head, though previously a military spokesman, Capt. Eli Lazarus of the Third Division Special Operation Battalion in Damaturu, released a statement saying two sons of the priest had been killed.
The Rev. Garba Idi, chairman of the Yobe state chapter of the Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN), told Morning Star News by phone that about 50 Muslim gunmen invaded the village at about 3 a.m., setting the Anglican priest's home ablaze among the other gutted houses. Agom was priest at St. Joseph's Anglican Church.
Dorowa is 110 kilometers (68 miles) west of Damaturu, the Yobe state capital. A village in the Nangere Local Government Area, it is about 60 kilometers (42 miles) from Mamudo village, where gunmen believed to be members of Boko Haram reportedly massacred 29 students and a teacher on July 6.
In Gujba, 25 miles south of Damaturu, suspected Islamic extremists at about 1 a.m. today attacked dormitories of the Yobe State College of Agriculture, reportedly killing dozens of Muslim students, school officials said.
Christians make up 51.3 percent of Nigeria's population of 158.2 million and live primarily in the south, while Muslims account for 45 percent and live mainly in the north, according to Operation World. Plateau state, in the central part of the country, is home to both Muslims and Christians.
© 2013 Morning Star News. Articles/photos may be reprinted with credit to Morning Star News.
Morning Star News is a 501(c)(3) non-profit corporation that relies solely on contributions to offer original news reports of persecuted Christians. Our mission is to inform those in the free world and in countries violating religious freedom about Christians worldwide who are persecuted for their faith. For free subscription or to make tax-deductible donations, contact [email protected], or send check to Morning Star News, 24310 Moulton Parkway, Suite O # 157, Laguna Hills, CA 92637, USA.


text:
Book Now
Easter Weekend 2025
Bookings are open for Easter 2025 at The Watermill Kidderminster.
Join us for delicious food, drinks on tap and great times spent with family and friends.
Easter Sunday Lunch
Easter calls for a feast and our Sunday roast delivers! Tender, slow-roasted meats, fluffy potatoes, vibrant seasonal veggies, and rich gravy - it's comfort food perfection. Don't worry, we haven't forgotten about dietary needs – we offer delicious vegetarian, vegan, and gluten-free alternatives. And what's Easter without dessert? Top off your celebration with one of our tempting sweet treats. See the full Sunday menu below and book your table for an unforgettable Easter gathering!


text:
EPIC Entertainment
Website: http://www.EpicEntertainment.com
Phone: 512-619-4345
Serving areas: Austin, TX, Texas, San Antonio, Houston, Dallas, Fort Worth, San Marcos, Temple, Bastrop, Lakeway, Cedar Park, Round Rock, Georgetown, Buda, Kyle
EPIC Entertainment's amazing juggler and magician Taylor Griswold is the best children's entertainer in Austin, TX. His high-energy, interactive show includes magic, juggling, plate spinning, and kids comedy. Having performed over 2,300 shows nationwide for the last 21 years, Taylor is the perfect choice for your next event in Texas. EPIC Entertainment offers magic shows for birthday parties, motivational school assemblies, Gospel presentations for churches, summer camps, library reading programs, boy scout Blue & Gold banquets, and corporate events too. You can receive exciting illusions like floating the birthday child in mid-air, sawing someone in half, and much more! For show info, call or go to the website link above.
Tags: Austin Magician, Austin Texas Magic Shows, best magician for kids tx, Cedar Park Magician, Central Texas Magician, Childrens Magician Texas, Closeup Magician Austin, Comedy Magic Show Texas, Find a Magician in Texas, Hire a Magician in Texas, Houston Magician, Juggler, Juggling, Kids Entertainer Texas, Kids Party Magician Texas, Magicians in Austin TX, Plate Spinning, Round Rock Magician, San Antonio Magician, San Marcos Magician, Strolling Magic Austin, Taylor Griswold, Texas Magician, Texas Magicians, Texas Magicians for Hire, TX Magician
Posted in Texas Magicians |


text:
Showing Properties for sale in La Heredia .
Browse through some of the best property opportunities on our portfolio and through a selection of villas, apartments and houses in and around Benahavis. Frontline golf properties ranging from luxury golf front villas to beautiful apartments and townhouses overlooking some of the best golf courses in Benahavis and the Costa del Sol.
You may filter by:
Showing 7 properties for sale.


text:
Whether you're looking for a relaxed meal or a night of fun and excitement, you'll want to come to O'Toole's. We've got the best food, drinks and entertainment in the area! Come on in and experience dining at it's best. We look forward to seeing you.
Grab a couple of cold drinks as you watch the game at our fully stocked bar, or enjoy a sandwich out on our spacious back deck. Our friendly servers and bartenders make sure you are well attended to, and that your experience here is fun and pleasant. There's no question, you'll be back again next time! Visit one of our two convenient locations in Queensbury or Colonie.
Features Include:
The Best Happy Hour in Town, ATM, Quick Draw, NTN Trivia, Soundogs
35 Televisions, March Madness, NFL, NCAA Football, & MLB Tickets, Live Entertainment every Friday, Green Points Frequent Dining Club, Four-sided fireplace and outside deck.
Join O'Toole's Green Points Club for Free and receive 50 points just for signing up!!! O'toole's is a privately owned restaurant which prides itself on giving back to the community in a number of ways. What better way to say, "We appreciate your business", than to give our customers coupons worth up to $100!! Please take a look at the Green Points form on the back of this pamphlet and join the 2000+ customers already taking advantage of their Green Card. Just fill out the form, tear off this section and bring it with you to join…that's it!!!
Planning a party? Whether it's a birthday, anniversary, retirement, engagement, rehearsal, shower, reunion, sports or office party, we tailor our menu to accommodate buffet style events.
Check us out at our website: otoolesrestaurants.com or look us up on Facebook: www.facebook.com/.../Queensbury-NY/OTooles-Restaurant-Pub


text:
[QUOTE=Konja7;5207166]Zatanna was Bruce's love interest at some point. I don't think she would be the best option.[/QUOTE]
I agree completely. Ideally, two members of the same family should not date the same person. And I do ship him with Barbara, and wouldn't want magic to be a major part of his story, anyway. And I think it'd be better for Zee not to be mired in Bats.
Though, was she ever Batman's love interest in main-universe in continuity in the comics? I know she was in animated verse.


text:
San Francisco Real Estate Professional
So far in 2018, the market seems to have brushed aside any concerns about increasing home prices, rising interest rates, and new federal tax law changes. It is still very early in the year to come to definitive conclusions about where the year is going, but right now, in most market segments, buyer demand is competing ferociously for a limited supply of listings. This is especially true in the more affordable home segments, and particularly for house listings. The situation is somewhat more complicated in the highest price ranges, especially in the luxury condo segment where supply has been rapidly increasing. Of course, whatever the property type or price segment, it all ultimately depends on the specific property, and its location, appeal, preparation, marketing and pricing.
As an example of what is going on so far in 2018, our dollar volume SF home sales here at Paragon is up 38% for January and February as compared to last year, though admittedly we are outperforming the general market, which is still up by 8% (per Broker Metrics for MLS sales).
San Francisco Median Home Price Appreciation
Year-over-Year Comparisons since 2005
San Francisco Price per Sq.Ft. Appreciation
Year-over-Year Comparisons since 2005
These first two charts above compare year-over-year median and average home values for the same 3-month period, December through February, since 2005. For the past 3 years, appreciation for houses has dramatically outpaced that for condos. This is mostly a factor of supply as new-construction condos have poured onto the market, while the supply of house listings has continued to dwindle in the face of high demand.
We are not enthusiastic about monthly median price movements since they tend to bounce around without great meaningfulness due to a number of factors, and sales volumes are very low in the first 2 months of the year, but, for what it is worth, the SF median house price soared to a new high in February 2018 to $1,715,000 (100 sales across 70-odd neighborhoods, reported to MLS by 3/7/18 – late reported sales may affect this price). Monthly median condo prices have generally been jogging up and down within a relatively narrow range since 2015. Chart: Chart: SF Monthly House & Condo Median Sales Prices
Appreciation by San Francisco District
by Year since 2004
The next 2 charts glance at house value appreciation in a few major districts around the city, from most affordable to more expensive to most expensive. As mentioned before, houses in more affordable neighborhoods have seen the most competitive market dynamic, and most consistent appreciation, in recent years.
It can be challenging to measure appreciation in the most expensive price segments, because, firstly, there are not that many sales, and secondly, because of the huge range of sales prices within those segments ($3m to $30m for luxury houses in SF; $2m to $22m for condos and co-ops), but it may well be that their values have mostly plateaued since 2015, or in some instances, ticked down. This can be seen in the second chart below with average dollar per square foot values declining a little in the most expensive house district in the city, Pacific Heights-Marina. But, again, it all depends on the specific property, its location and circumstances.
Median House Sales Prices by District
Average Price per Square Foot House Values
We have hundreds of other analyses on San Francisco neighborhood house and condo prices and appreciation trends: SF Neighborhood Values & SF Neighborhood Appreciation Trends.
Or simply contact us regarding the neighborhoods you are specifically interested in.
San Francisco Luxury Home Market
Luxury home sales started off very strong in 2018, but the supply and demand dynamics are softer than in the general market. In the ultra-luxury condo market, in those neighborhoods where new, high-price condo construction is concentrated, supply is now outpacing demand. We just did a massive update of our luxury home analysis and it can be found in its entirety here: Paragon Luxury Market Report.
Below are a few samples of charts in the complete report.
Year-over-Year Sales Comparisons
First 6 Weeks of the Year
Active Luxury House Listings by District
SF Luxury House Sales by Era of Construction
Active Luxury Condo & Co-op Listings by District
Supply & Demand: Ultra-Luxury Condos & Co-ops
Long-Term Trends in Inventory
Only about 2% of house owners are putting their homes on the market each year, which is incredibly low by historical measures. About 5% of condo owners sell their homes each year, plus the new-construction condos that come on the market. This dynamic has made houses into the scarce commodity, and has fueled dramatic house price appreciation.
New Listings Coming on Market
Long-Term Trends
Active Listings on Market at End of Month
Long-Term Trends
Short-Term Trends: Seasonality
We are just heading now into the biggest sales season of the year, running from March through mid-June. The real estate market in the city is significantly affected by seasonality, and the luxury segment is even more fiercely affected. We shall also see if rising interest rates (if they continue to rise) or the changes in the federal tax law start to have any significant dampening effects on demand.
Listings Accepting Offers (Going into Contract)
General Market
New Listings Coming on Market
Luxury Home Market
Selected Supply & Demand Statistics
The following charts illustrate 3 of the classic indicators of market heat, and all of them speak to the feverish real estate market we have seen so far in 2018. However, the market is clearly hottest in the non-luxury price segment, and cooler in the highest price ranges, which is illustrated in the fourth chart below.
Average Days on Market
Year-over-Year Comparisons
Percentage of Listings Accepting Offers
by Month
Months Supply of Inventory (MSI)
Year-over-Year Comparisons
Months Supply of Inventory (MSI)
by Property Type & Price Segment
The market is softer in the highest price ranges especially for the most expensive condos
Average $/Sq.Ft. Value by House Size
All things being equal, house size and price per square foot go in opposite directions, i.e. a smaller house will sell for a lower sales price but a higher dollar per square foot value. This has to do with land value and the cost of systems, kitchens and baths. This is why, comparing two periods of time, it is possible that median sales prices can go up while dollar per square foot values go down, or there is a significant mismatch in the appreciation rates – the average size of the houses sold significantly changed between the periods, which happens sometimes. The charts below are of 2 districts with both a good number of sales and relatively homogenous values within the district.
In both the cases below, the difference in price per square foot between smaller houses and the largest houses runs about $200, or about a 15% to 20% difference.
The above effect does not always apply: For example, in Pacific Heights, the biggest houses are also often in the most prestigious locations with the best views, and so command a premium in price per square foot despite their size. And this often does not apply to condo sales, because bigger units are often built higher up in the building, with more expensive finishes, delivering better (or staggering) views, and thus selling for higher $/sq.ft. values.
Rising Mortgage Interest Rates
Short-Term Trends
Long-Term Trends
Debt in America
One of the macro-economic factors of concern is that debt levels, of virtually every kind, are hitting new highs in the country (and in the world). This has been heavily subsidized by the historically low interest rates prevailing in recent years, but rates appear to be headed upward, and increasing debt often plays a big role in market cycles.
Debt Taken On to Invest in Financial Markets
(Often a Sign of Investor Over-Exuberance)
Household Non-Housing Debt
Credit Cards, Student Loans, Car Financing
Household Mortgage Debt Service Ratio
The amount of total mortgage debt in the country is now about the same as at its last peak in 2008 (not illustrated on this chart), but because of the plunge in interest rates since then, the ratio of mortgage debt service to disposable income was close to an all-time low in mid-2017. Interest rates have been rising since then, but are still about 30% lower than in 2007. The good news is that so much of mortgage debt in America is now in fixed-rate loans at very low interest rates, which adds much stability to economic conditions, a stability grievously lacking at the time of the 2008 financial markets crash.
Link to additional charts on debt
Additional reading for those interested:
Paragon Main Real Estate Reports Page
Positive & Negative Factors in Bay Area Markets
Survey of Bay Area Real Estate Markets
San Francisco & Bay Area Demographics
Please let us know if you have questions or we can be of assistance in any other way.
Information on neighborhoods not included in this report is readily available.
It is impossible to know how median and average value statistics apply to any particular home without a specific, tailored, comparative market analysis. In real estate, the devil is always in the details.
These analyses were made in good faith with data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and are subject to revision. It is not our intent to convince you of a particular position, but to attempt to provide straightforward data and analysis, so you can make your own informed decisions. Median and average statistics are enormous generalities: There are hundreds of different markets in San Francisco and the Bay Area, each with its own unique dynamics. Median prices and average dollar per square foot values can be and often are affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Longer term trends are much more meaningful than short-term. Late-reported MLS activity may change certain statistics to some small degree.
© 2018 Paragon Real Estate Group


text:
Screen Print & Embroidery
Wight's professionally screen prints and embroiders on t-shirts, sweatshirts, jackets, hats, uniforms and hundreds of different promotional products in their Hampden, Maine facility. Detailed logo design and custom art creation is also an in house service Wight's provides. Utilize Wight's trained artists in their screen print and embroidery departments to promote and brand your business name and message. Create custom logos with six color options in printing and 12 color options in embroidery to make your brand or image become recognized. Whether it is the corporate world or the sporting goods team market Wight's has the ability to help you and your organization be successful and looking professional!
Our Screen Printing & Embroidery ServicesBranded Apparel
Wight's has availability of an endless quantity of polo shirts, t-shirts, sweatshirts, jackets, hats and beyond to help you look and feel professional. Inexpensive to top quality name brand products are available in an array of designs, colors and size cuts. Whether you are outfitting your corporate office staff or sprucing up your travel program, Wight's has an apparel item that fits your needs and your price range. Vendors like Nike, Adidas, Russell Athletic, Holloway, Charles River and SanMar are all part of Wight's offerings. Help your employees or athletes feel great which allows them to perform exceptionally well with their responsibilities. Cutting Edge products as well as traditional looks are enhanced with Wight's decoration center to separate you from your competition!
Our Branded ApparelAthletic Uniforms
Wight's has established a quality reputation for designing, building and servicing the State of Maine's athletic uniform market. With a full line up of brand name uniforms, Wight's has the ability to provide excellent quality and options in all lines of team sports uniforms. Men's, Women's and youth styles are available at many different price ranges to meet your team's needs and budget. Wight's can offer virtually every uniform style in all Team Sports with multiple price points to fit your needs! Let Wight's help outfit your athletes to make them feel great so they can play great!
Our UniformsSporting Goods
Wight's has been selling sporting goods since 1914. Wight's has a rich tradition of providing a diverse product mix for all team sports as well as most individual sports. From a simple whistle to a complete athletic department's budget, Wight's can meet all of your needs. Game balls, Hard Goods, training devices and more allow Wight's to fill any sporting goods order. Wight's provides all the Sporting Goods equipment you and your teams will need to be successful. Wight's has products for Every Sport, Every Season and Every Player!
Our Sporting GoodsFacility Equipment
Wight's has the ability to sell and install all aspects of athletic facility improvements. Ceiling hung, wall-braced or portable backboards are all available. Let Wight's provide you divider curtains, custom wall-padding, sideline chairs or designed scorers tables to enhance your school's interior image. Wight's can also create new locker room lay-outs with lockers and team benches. Modern day weight room upgrades are available to help your athletes gain an edge over their competition. Wight's can also provide all of your outdoor field equipment needs. Goals, bleachers, player benches, netting, weather protection field tarps, foul poles, backstops, fence caps, padding, batting cages, blocking and tackle sleds, bases and all maintenance tools to take care of all your fields is available at Wight's. Wight's will sell and Install all the items you will need to make your athletic facilities stand out from all the others. Wight's can help separate you from your competition with State of the Art Facility improvements!
Our Facility Equipment & Upgrades


text:
Thunderbolt 3 doubles throughput to 40Gbps, and adopts the USB Type-C port to become a truly universal connector.
One of the huge announcements out of this week's Computex show is Intel's introduction of Thunderbolt 3.
While the first two iterations of Thunderbolt used the mini DisplayPort, the new version uses the USB Type-C (aka USB-C) connector instead. This is huge, since the Type-C connector is compact, reversible, and has the potential to become the ubiquitous connector on desktops, hard drives, laptops, phones, tablets, and a number of other electronic devices.
This is a win for Thunderbolt 3, because you won't have to buy a new set of cables and connectors for each standard, as you have to do today. Thunderbolt 3 cables will work with USB Type-C and vice versa.
Thunderbolt has been a moderately successful interconnect technology, particularly in Macs and in Windows workstations. Professional users' large data transfers take advantage of Thunderbolt's 10-20Gbps maximum throughput. Thunderbolt 3 boosts that to 40Gbps, well above the 10Gbps for USB 3.1 and the 5Gbps maximum throughput of USB 3.0.
In addition to prodigious throughput, however, the Thunderbolt 3 also transmits DisplayPort 1.2, PCI Express Gen 3, power (100W), and USB 3.1 signals natively. This means that you can drive up to two 4K displays or one 5K display, charge your laptop, connect to a PCI Express expansion cage, and connect to USB devices all from the same port.
USB Type-C power adapters will work with Thunderbolt 3 devices as well. You'll have to use an adapter or docking station for simultaneous connections, but this is a great solution for ultra-thin laptops that don't have the same amount of space for multiple connectors that older laptops had.
Because of the unified connector, Thunderbolt 3 has the potential to become as ubiquitous as USB Type-A is now. It may never get to all laptops, particularly at the cheapest price points, but it will be nice to be able to use the same power adapters and USB Type-C interconnect cables instead of ordering yet another incompatible cable overnight because you forgot yours in the office.


text:
This website is not affiliated with or endorsed by the Wikimedia Foundation, the nonprofit that maintains Wikipedia and manages the Wikipedia trademark.
Views until June 2015 for desktop come from stats.grok.se and include bot pageviews, while those from July 2015 are from the Wikimedia REST API and exclude identifiable bots and spiders (but may still end up counting many views by bots and spiders as legitimate human views). Views for mobile web, mobile app, desktop spider, and mobile web spider are from the Wikimedia REST API and available starting July 2015. Mobile web and mobile app views from July 2015 onward exclude identifiable bots, and "desktop spider" and "mobile web spider" are basically all the bots/spiders (excluding Wikipedia's own, which get identified as bots).


text:
Celebs Quiz – Who is That? Answers. Celebs Quiz Walkthrough is a Trivia game by symblCrowd GmbH. This walkthrough contains solutions to all the questions asked in the App. This guide contains hints, tips and spoilers for the questions. Celebs Quiz cheats are also contained on this page.
Celebs Quiz – Who is that? Answers. Celebs Quiz Level 1 Answers.
Megan Fox
Stefan Raab
Paris Hilton
Justin Bieber
Brad Pitt
Johnny Depp
Barack Obama
Will Smith
Dirk Nowitzki
Elton John
Steve Jobs
Sebastian Vettel
Muhammed Ali
Emma Watson
Albert Einstein
Michael Schumacher
Angelina Jolie
Jackie Chan
Celebs Quiz – Who is that? Cheats. Celeb Quiz Level 2 Answers.
Fernando Alonso
David Guetta
Mike Tyson
Jessica Alba
Ludwig Van Beethoven
Miley Cyrus
Angela Merkel
Oliver Kahn
Daniel Radcliffe. From the Harry Potter series of books.
George Clooney. Famous for looking good.
Benjamin Franklin
Vladimir Putin. George Bush called him Pooty Po.
50 Cent. Soon to retire, feels he is too old for rap now.
Britney Spears
Tiger Woods
David Beckham
Elvis Presley
Katy Perry
Bruce Willis


text:
Elephant seal travels 18,000 miles
The Wildlife Conservation Society tracked a southern elephant seal for an astonishing 18,000 miles – the equivalent of New York to Sydney and back again.
WCS tracked the male seal from December, 2010, to November, 2011. The animal – nicknamed Jackson – was tagged on the beach in Admiralty Sound in Tierra del Fuego in southern Chile. WCS conservationists fitted Jackson with a small satellite transmitter that recorded his exact location when he surfaced to breathe.
Jackson swam 1,000 miles north, 400 miles west, and 100 miles south from the original tagging location, meandering through fjords and venturing past the continental shelf as he foraged for fish and squid.
During this tracking, the WCS team analyzed the data to better understand elephant seal migratory routes.
Elephant seals are potential indicators of the health of marine ecosystems and may show how climate change influences the distribution of prey species that serve as the basis of Patagonia's rich marine ecosystem. To protect this vast region, conservationists need to know how wildlife uses it throughout the year.
"Jackson's travels provide a roadmap of how elephant seals use the Patagonian Coast and its associated seas," said Caleb McClennen, WCS Director for Global Marine Programs. "This information is vital to improving ocean management in the region, helping establish protected areas in the right places, and ensuring fisheries are managed sustainably without harming vulnerable marine species like the southern elephant seal."
The information WCS gathers will serve as a foundation for a new model of private-public, terrestrial-marine conservation of the Admiralty Sound, Karukinka Natural Park (a WCS private protected area), and Alberto de Agostini National Park. It will help build a broader vision for bolstering conservation efforts across the Patagonian Sea and coast.
"The Wildlife Conservation Society has a long history of working in the spectacular Patagonia region to establish protected areas and advance conservation of its rich wildlife," said Julie Kunen, WCS Director of Latin America and Caribbean. "Individual stories like Jackson's are awe-inspiring, and also inform the science that will ultimately help protect this region."
WCS reports that Jackson has returned to Admiralty Sound, the site of the original tagging. Each year, elephant seals haul ashore in colonies to molt and find mates. The satellite transmitter is expected to work until early next year, when it will eventually fall off.
WCS has tracked more than 60 southern elephant seals via satellite on the Atlantic side of the Southern Cone since the early 1990s. Jackson represented the first southern elephant seal tagged from the Pacific side of the Southern Cone.
Elephant seals are among the largest pinnipeds in the world, reaching weights of up to 7,500 pounds and lengths of 20 feet.
Provided by Wildlife Conservation Society