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Subscribe to Cases that cite 155 U. S. 597U.S. Supreme Court
Potts v. Creager, 155 U.S. 597 (1895)
Potts v. Creager
No. 94
Argued November 23, 1894
Decided January 7, 1895
The machine patented to Clayton Potts and Albert Potts by letters patent No. 322,393, issued July 14, 1885, for a new and useful improvement in clay disintegrators, and the machine patented to them by letters patent No. 368,898, issued August 23, 1887, for an improvement upon the prior patent, contained new and useful inventions, and the letters patent therefor are valid, and are infringed by the machines manufactured and sold by the defendants in error.
The cases treating of letters patent for new applications of old devices considered, and as a result of the authorities, it is held that if the new use be so nearly analogous to the former one that the applicability of the device to its new use would occur to a person of ordinary mechanical skill, it is only a case of double use; but if the relations between them be remote, and especially if the use of the old device produce a new result, it may involve an exercise of the inventive faculty -- much depending upon the nature of the changes required to adapt the device to its new use.
This was a bill in equity by C. & A. Potts & Co., an Indiana corporation, against the firm of Jonathan Creager's Sons of Cincinnati, for the infringement of patent No. 322,393, issued July 14, 1885, to Clayton Potts and Albert Potts, for a clay disintegrator, and also of patent No. 368,898, issued August 23, 1887, to the same inventors, for an improvement upon the prior patent. A third patent to George Potts, No. 384,278, was originally included in the bill, but, by stipulation between the parties, all reference to this patent was cancelled, and the bill treated as if formally amended by alleging infringement of the first two patents only.
In the first patent, No. 322,393, the patentees stated the object of their invention to be
"to disintegrate the clay by means of a revolving cylinder, which shall remove successive portions from a mass of clay which is automatically pressed against the cylinder."
This was accomplished by a cylinder containing a series of steel bars, fitted into longitudinal grooves in the periphery of chanrobles.com-red
the cylinder, where they were secured by flush screws at each end, by means of which they were adjusted, so as to present a sharp corner, projecting above the surface of the cylinder. Opposite the cylinder was a strong vibratory plate mounted on a shaft, so as to swing in its bearings, by the aid of an eccentric wheel. The opposed sides of the cylinder and the upper and central portions of the plate formed a trough, one side of which approached and receded from the other at intervals, and which had at the bottom a narrow opening of constant width. In the operation of the machine, the plate was swung back so as to leave as large an opening as possible, and the moist untempered clay was thrown into the trough between the cylinder and the upper portion of the plate. By a rapid revolution of the cylinder, successive portions of the clay were removed from the mass, carried through the narrow opening by means of the scraping bars, and at the same time the upper portion of the plate moved slowly towards the cylinder, thus keeping the mass of clay in close contact with the cylinder, as successive portions were removed.
The only claim alleged to be infringed was the sixth, which reads as follows:
"6. In a clay disintegrator, the combination with cylinder, A, having a series of longitudinal grooves, of the scraping bar, c, and adjustably secured in said grooves for the purpose specified."
In the second patent, No. 368,898, which was for an improvement upon the first, there was substituted in lieu of the swinging plate, shown by the first patent, as cooperating with the revolving cylinder, a plain cylinder set opposite the cutting cylinder, and revolving therewith in close proximity, so that the raw clay might be fed, shredded, and discharged in an even and continuous manner, in readiness to be taken directly to the pug or other mill. The patentees further stated in their specification:
"The machine shown in our letters patent No. 322,393 was provided with a swinging or vibrating plate, to coact with the cutting cylinder in effecting the shredding of the clay which was fed between them. In such machine, the abutting surface
of the vibrating plate furnished a rest or bearing for the clay in presenting the same to the action of the cutter knives. This abutting surface was limited in extent and unchanging in position, so that it became rapidly worn. By substituting the revolving roll for the vibrating plate, this objection is greatly lessened. The roll constantly presents new surfaces to the cutters, so that the wear is even and regular throughout its circuit. If any inequalities exist in the roll at the outset, these become rapidly reduced, so that, by use, the cylinder wears more and more true, and acts thus with constantly better effect. Aside from cheapness in construction, the revolving roller or cylinder machine will work wet or sticky clays with perhaps one-third of the power necessary in treating such clays in the vibratory plate machine. Such plate tends constantly to crowd or squeeze the passing clays, whereas the revolving roll yields continuously, so that clogging is less apt to occur at the same time that the clay is finely and evenly shredded, the cutter cylinder moving, by preference, more rapidly than the companion feed roll in order to accomplish this effect."
"Prior to our invention, it has been very common to employ in clay mills, sugar mills, and the like a set of rolls between which the material passed as the rolls were revolved, but in such machines the operation of the rolls was merely to break up the clogs of clay, and squeeze or crush the same, whereas by our invention, the clay is positively cut into fine shreds or clippings in much better condition to be tempered and molded than by the old forms of disintegrating machines."
The following drawing illustrates the main features of the machine, so far as the same are material to the present case:
Defendants were charged with infringing the first and second claims of this patent, which read as follows:
"1, In the supporting frame of a clay disintegrator, a rotating cylinder longitudinally grooved, and carrying cutting bars in and projecting beyond the grooves, in combination with a smooth-faced rotating cylinder adapted to carry and hold the clay against the cylinder having the cutting bars thereon, which latter cut or shred the clay, and pass the same between the cylinders, substantially as set forth."
"2. In clay disintegrators, the combination with the main supporting frame and with a rotating cylinder fixed therein, and having longitudinal cutting bars projecting beyond the face thereof, of a positively revolving companion cylinder fixed opposite thereto in said frame, and having a smooth face or surface, with which said cutting bars directly cooperate to shred or clip the clay as the same is fed by and passed between said cylinders, substantially as described."
The answer denied any patentable novelty in these patents in view of the prior art as shown by numerous earlier patents, to which reference was made, and also denied infringement, alleging that defendants were manufacturing clay pulverizers, under authority of patents granted to Jonathan and Harry M. Creager in 1888.
The case came on for hearing upon pleadings and proofs, and the court directed a decree dismissing the bill. 44 F.6d 0. From this decree, plaintiff appealed to this Court.
MR. JUSTICE BROWN, after stating the facts in the foregoing language, delivered the opinion of the Court.
Beds of clay are composed of different strata, and the first step necessary to be taken in the manufacture of such clay is a thorough mixing of the strata, and the reduction of the chanrobles.com-red
clay to a suitable condition; otherwise, the product will contain laminations, will shrink unevenly, and check in burning, scale or peel off in use, and be less valuable than products made of clays which are first thoroughly mixed and tempered, and reduced to a homogeneous mass before being manufactured into the product. Prior to the Potts invention, various methods seem to have been employed to secure this result. The clay had been sometimes spaded up in the autumn, subjected to the action of the frost during the winter, and then to the operation of the old-fashioned grinding pit. A mud wheel had also been used. The "soak pit" was another means used to accomplish the same result; the clay being deposited in a pit of water, and allowed to remain until the soaking process had reduced it to the desired condition. These methods were slow and expensive. Both grinding machines and crushing rolls had been adopted in comparatively recent years. Their action was simply to crush the clay, the different strata being pressed together and made more compact, and the clay discharged from the rolls in cakes or sheets, a condition that made the tempering very difficult, as the clay thus treated would not readily receive or absorb the water.
The object of the Potts inventions was not to crush the clay, as had been previously done, but to disintegrate and pulverize it, leaving it in a loose condition, fitted to absorb the water readily. Their machines consisted substantially of a cylinder moving at a high speed, having longitudinal bars fixed in its periphery, with sharp projecting corners, and a fixed abutment in close proximity thereto -- in the first patent, a swinging plate, in the second, a smooth cylinder -- and a positive feeding device by which the clay was forced between the main cylinder and the abutment. The longitudinal bars thus operated to strike the mass of clay quick, sharp blows in rapid succession, and cut or shred small portions therefrom, which were deposited beneath the machine, thoroughly mixed in their different strata, and with rough, torn, or ruptured edges -- a condition best adapted to receive or absorb water, and be easily and thoroughly tempered.
The only feature of the first patent material to be considered chanrobles.com-red
is the cylinder described in the sixth claim as a cylinder "having a series of longitudinal grooves, of the scraping bars, c, adjustably secured in said grooves, for the purpose specified."
This cylinder is alleged to have been anticipated in devices shown in eight prior patents, each of which will be briefly mentioned:
1. A patent of 1865 to Robert Butterworth, for an improvement in machines for grinding apples, exhibits a cylinder with cutting knives or blades on its periphery. These knives have serrated or toothed edges, which form chisel-shaped cutting projections, and are provided with means for adjustment so as to protrude more or less beyond the periphery of the cylinder. When the cylinder is rotated, the apples are cut or ground by the knives between the cylinder and a plate somewhat similar to the swinging plate of the first Potts patent, provided with springs adapted to throw the plate back whenever any stones or hard foreign substances have passed through the machine. While these knives are set upon the periphery of the cylinder in much the same way as the scraping bars of the Potts patents, it is really the only point of resemblance between the two devices. The Butterworth patent could not possibly have been used as a clay disintegrator without changes which would involve more or less invention.
2. A patent granted in 1880, to one Ennis, exhibits a machine for preparing paper pulp, and consists of a revolving cylinder, armed with longitudinal knives, and a stationary plate, also armed with knives, mounted beneath it in close proximity thereto. Rags fed between the revolving and stationary knives are thus cut in pieces. The reasons given why the Butterworth patent does not anticipate the Potts inventions apply with equal force to this.
3. A patent granted in 1866 to one Frost exhibits another grinding cylinder for paper engines, and consists of a skeleton cylinder, armed with sharp cutting blades, secured adjustably, so as to be moved out from the axis of the cylinder, as they wear. The cylinder is manifestly inapplicable to the disintegration of clay, and nothing besides the cylinder is shown. chanrobles.com-red
4. A patent to one Van Name, granted in 1884, shows a roller for grinding mills, provided with blades arranged in longitudinal grooves around the surface paralelled with the axis. These blades are made of hardened steel, and of soft iron, hardened paper, or wood, placed alternately with the steel blades. The surface of the roller is practically smooth, except that, in use, the soft material will wear more rapidly than the hard. This results in maintaining a corrugated roller until the strips are worn out. It can be of no possible service to the defendant in this connection.
5. The patent issued in 1869, to one Peabody, for a cotton-seed huller, also exhibits a rotary cylinder, armed with knives set in grooves, each having a chisel-shaped cutting edge, and adjustable for the purpose of increasing or diminishing the cut. It is evidently not adapted to the working of clay.
6. The same remark may be made of the patent to Mayfield, of 1871, for a grinding mill, such as are adapted for general use among farmers. It also consists of a cylinder provided with knives or plane bits set in longitudinal grooves. These knives are also adjustable.
7. A patent to J. W. Smith, granted in 1881, is for an apparatus for preparing wheat for grinding, in which a cylinder is employed similar to that of the Mayfield patent, with a series of plane bits projecting from the periphery. The plane bits are adjustably bolted by screws and slots within the cylinder, while their cutting edges protrude from slots outwardly from the rim of the cylinder. They do not differ in principle from the knives of Peabody and Mayfield.
8. A patent to one Rudy, granted in 1875, for an improvement in clay pulverizers, is the only one which is used in connection with the preparation or manufacture of clay, and consists of a pulverizing roller in combination with separate concave springs, or an elastic bed for supporting the clay while the roller revolves therein, after which it falls through a sieve, and descends to a second cylinder, and then to a third. The patent does not describe distinctly how the rollers are made, but they would seem to be fluted, and cast in a series of sections. The process employed seems to have been rather chanrobles.com-red
a grinding than a disintegrating process, and it would seem that such a machine would be inoperative except, perhaps, where the clay was dry and of light consistency. The cylinder evidently operates upon a wholly different principle from that of the Potts patents.
Other patents are shown bearing a greater or less resemblance to these, but generally used for wholly different purposes, such as for straw cutters, machines for pressing tobacco, pulp engines, peat machines, feed boxes for roller mills, and machines for removing hair from hides. So far as they are used for working clay, they would appear to differ radically in principle from the Potts patent. An exhibit much relied upon, known as the "Creager wood-polishing machine," shows a cylinder, provided on its periphery with a series of projecting strips or bars of glass, not differing materially in form from plaintiff's scrapers, and like them fitted into longitudinal grooves. The machine was used for polishing boards, which were run between the cylinder and a support and pressure roller journaled underneath, and connected with an automatic adjustable contrivance. Had this machine been used for an analogous purpose, it would evidently have been an anticipation of the Potts cylinder, since the substitution of steel for glass strips would not of itself have involved invention. This device was constructed in 1874, was used for only half an hour, when, by an accident, several of the scrapers or polishers were broken, and, before others could be molded, the building took fire and burned down. That it was not considered a success is evident from the fact that the machine was never reconstructed, but in 1878, Creager took out a patent for a similar machine, in which a smooth or corrugated roller of wood, glass, bone, ivory, or metal was the distinctive feature. In short, the machine of 1874 appears to have been merely an abandoned experiment.
As already stated, the second Potts patent is for the combination of the cylinder described in the first patent with another smooth-faced rotating cylinder, adapted to carry and hold the clay against the first cylinder, which cuts and shreds it as it passes between them. It seems that the swinging plate, chanrobles.com-red
described in the first patent as coacting with the cutting cylinder in shredding the clay, was limited in the extent of its cutting surface, and was unchangeable in position, so that it became rapidly worn. To obviate this difficulty, a revolving roller was substituted for the plate. As this roller constantly presented a new surface to the cutter, the wear was even and regular over its entire circumference. If any inequalities existed in the roller at the outset, they became rapidly reduced, so that, by use, the cylinder constantly wears truer, and thus cuts with better effect. There was also an advantage in greater cheapness of construction and in the ability of the roller to work in wet and sticky clays with much less power than was necessary in treating such clays with the vibratory plate.
The employment of two parallel cylinders to cooperate in the performance of a certain task is so common and well known that the court may take judicial notice of such examples as are found in the ordinary clothes wringer, fluting rollers, straw cutters, printing presses, paper manufacturing machines, and grinding mills of various kinds. Indeed, this combination of two rollers had been before used for the purpose of grinding and crushing clay, as shown in a patent to Alexander, granted in 1872, wherein the clay was passed between double spiral-toothed grinding and crushing rollers, and then between plain, cylindrical rollers, and in the patent to Alsip and Drake of June 30, 1885, which exhibits a fluted or corrugated cylinder in combination with a smooth-faced companion cylinder, between which the clay is passed and crushed, though not disintegrated. In view of these devices, it is too clear for argument that the Pottses would not be entitled to a patent simply for passing the clay between two grinding or crushing cylinders, and it is at least open to doubt whether, in view of the first patent, there is any novelty in substituting a smooth-faced roller for the swinging plate of the first patent. But as the sixth claim of the first patent covers only the cylinder, the second patent may be read in connection with it, to show what the machine was as completed. The question whether the second patent was anticipated by the first is not presented by this record. chanrobles.com-red
What, then, did the patentees do? They took the cylinder shown in the Creager wood-polishing exhibit, removed the glass bars, and substituted bars of steel, provided it with an abutting surface in the form of a revolving roller, and used it for a totally distinct and different purpose. Putting aside, for the purposes of this discussion, the fact that the Creager cylinder was an abandoned experiment, did this involve invention? Certainly if this exhibit does not anticipate, none of the others do. The answer to this requires the consideration of the often-recurring question, which has taxed the ingenuity of courts ever since the passage of the patent acts, as to what invention really is. When a patented device is a mere improvement upon an existing machine, and the case is not complicated by other anticipating devices, the solution is ordinarily free from difficulty. But where the alleged novelty consists in transferring a device from one branch of industry to another, the answer depends upon a variety of considerations. In such cases, we are bound to inquire into the remoteness of relationship of the two industries, what alternations were necessary to adapt the device to its new use, and what the value of such adaptation has been to the new industry. If the new use be analogous to the former one, the court will undoubtedly be disposed to construe the patent more strictly, and to require clearer proof of the exercise of the inventive faculty in adapting it to the new use, particularly if the device be one of minor importance in its new field of usefulness. On the other hand, if the transfer be to a branch of industry but remotely allied to the other, and the effect of such transfer has been to supersede other methods of doing the same work, the court will look with a less critical eye upon the means employed in making the transfer. Doubtless a patentee is entitled to every use of which his invention is susceptible, whether such use be known or unknown to him; but the person who has taken his device, and, by improvements thereon, has adapted it to a different industry, may also draw to himself the quality of inventor. If, for instance, a person were to take a coffee mill and patent it as a mill for grinding spices, the double use would be too manifest for serious chanrobles.com-red
argument. So too this Court has denied invention to one who applied the principle of an ice-cream freezer to the preservation of fish, Brown v. Piper, 91 U. S. 37; to another who changed the proportions of a refrigerator in such manner as to utilize the descending instead of the ascending current of cold air, Roberts v. Ryer, 91 U. S. 150; to another who employed an old and well known method of attaching car trucks to the forward truck of a locomotive engine, Pennsylvania Railroad v. Locomotive Truck Co., 110 U. S. 490, and to still another who placed a dredging screw at the stem instead of the stern of a steamboat, Atlantic Works v. Brady, 107 U. S. 192. In Tucker v. Spalding, 13 Wall. 453, the patent covered the use of movable teeth in saws and saw plates. A prior patent exhibited cutters of the same general form as the saw teeth of the other patent, attachable to a circular disk, and removable as in the other, the purpose of which patent was for the cutting of tongues and grooves, mortises, etc. The Court held that if what it actually did was in its nature the same as sawing, and its structure and action suggested to the mind of an ordinarily skillful mechanic this double use, to which it could be adapted without material change, then such adaptation to a new use was not new invention, and was not patentable.
Upon the other hand, we have recently upheld a patent to one who took a torsional spring, such as had been previously used in clocks, doors, and other articles of domestic furniture, and applied it to telegraph instruments, the application being shown to be wholly new. Western Electric Co. v. La Rue, 139 U. S. 601. So also, in Crane v. Price, Webster's Pat.Cas. 409, the use of anthracite coal in smelting iron ore was held to be a good invention inasmuch as it produced a better article of iron at a less expense, although bituminous coal had been previously used for the same purpose. See also Steiner v. Heald, 6 Exch. 607.
Indeed, it often requires as acute a perception of the relations between cause and effect, and as much of the peculiar intuitive genius which is a characteristic of great inventors, to grasp the idea that a device used in one art may be made chanrobles.com-red
available in another as would be necessary to create the device de novo. And this is not the less true if, after the thing has been done, it appears to the ordinary mind so simple as to excite wonder that it was not thought of before. The apparent simplicity of a new device often leads an inexperienced person to think that it would have occurred to anyone familiar with the subject, but the decisive answer is that, with dozens and perhaps hundreds of others laboring in the same field, it had never occurred to anyone before. The practiced eye of an ordinary mechanic may be safely trusted to see what ought to be apparent to everyone. As was said by Mr. Justice Bradley in Loom Company v. Higgins, 105 U. S. 580, 105 U. S. 591:
"Now that it has succeeded, it may seem very plain to anyone that he could have done it as well. This is often the case with inventions of the greatest merit. It may be laid down as a general rule, though perhaps not an invariable one, that if a new combination and arrangement of known elements produce a new and beneficial result, never attained before, it is evidence of invention."
As a result of the authorities upon this subject, it may be said that if the new use be so nearly analogous to the former one that the applicability of the device to its new use would occur to a person of ordinary mechanical skill, it is only a case of double use; but if the relations between them be remote, and especially if the use of the old device produce a new result, it may at least involve an exercise of the inventive faculty. Much, however, must still depend upon the nature of the changes required to adapt the device to its new use.
Applying this test to the case under consideration, it is manifest that if the change from the glass bars of the Creager wood exhibit to the steel bars of the Potts cylinder was a mere change of material for the more perfect accomplishment of the same work, it would, within the familiar cases of @ 52 U. S. 343, where the question of novelty is in doubt, the fact that the device has gone into general use and displaced other devices employed for a similar purpose is sufficient to turn the scale in favor of the invention. Our conclusion is that the patents in question are valid.
The question of infringement presents less difficulty. Defendants' machine, in its construction and operation, is substantially the same as plaintiff's. Instead, however, of casting the shredding roller with a solid face, forming longitudinal grooves therein, and fixing the steel bars in the grooves, defendants cast the cylinder in the form of a skeleton or spider; the knives being respectively fastened to the several arms projecting from the hub, one knife to each arm, and forming the periphery by filling in metal plates between the knives. The cylinder, when its numerous parts are bolted together, is a perfect roll with a solid face, having cutting bars projecting from the slots or grooves thus formed, and adjustably secured therein by means of bolts passing through them. The operation is the same as that of the Potts machine, and it accomplishes practically the same result by practically the same means. chanrobles.com-red
Defendants, in their trade circular advertising their own machine, state:
"Unlike the ordinary roller process, the action of the disintegrator is to remove small portions, by cutting from the clay fed into the hopper on the same principle as shaving and whittling, and does not roll the clay into sheets, thus making it unfit for proper manipulation. The past season we have put out many of these machines in difficult clays, and made it an obligation to work the clay both wet and dry, and each machine has done its work well and to the entire satisfaction of the purchasers."
This is a frank and apparently a just tribute to the merits of the plaintiff's invention, as well as a distinct admission that their own machine accomplishes the same result.
The decree of the court below is therefore
Reversed, and the case remanded for further proceedings in conformity with this opinion.


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subset: commoncrawl


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Previous Lesson
Complete and Continue
Actionable Discovery Guide
Into To This Guide
How to use this guide (1:53)
One more thing (2:03)
Structure Of Your First Call (How To)
Context for this section (0:24)
How exactly it should start (2:48)
What we're NOT offering (optional) (0:55)
What happens after you start? (4:02)
If the prospect shares problems (3:38)
Raise more Issues (part 1) (2:57)
Raise more issues (part 2) (1:13)
Transition to HOW we can help (5:58)
The "I don't know what I don't know" prospect (Beginning of call) (2:32)
The "I don't know what I don't know" prospect (End of call) (3:03)
Structure Of Your First Call (Up Front Contract Insights)
Context for this section (0:37)
How we sell (2:12)
Who we ultimately work with
Section summary
Have a Hypothesis (Reminder)
Hypothesis (0:30)
Raising Problems
Asking your first problem question (3:12)
To What Extent (2:05)
The power of recapping (2:44)
The Problem Tree (2:31)
Next Steps Insights
We've found (1:02)
C-Level Executive
Discovery with C level Execs (1:34)
How To Ask The Most Difficult Discovery Questions
Asking for permission (2:08)
The tough question formula (1:38)
Use Humbling Disclaimers
If you're afraid to bombard your prospect with questions (3:11)
If you're afraid to bring up certain topics (1:49)
Clarification questions
Stumbling on your questions? Just say so (0:57)
Bring the Past to the Present (2:09)
Use a Negative Disposition (2:06)
Problem Questions
Context for this session (0:58)
How widely known? (1:02)
The Scale
The Two Camps (2:27)
What have you tried? (1:33)
What makes you say that?
Why is that important?
Why no tool?
Was there a time when?.. (0:56)
Why do you feel that way? (1:15)
Why now? (0:54)
Have you ever wondered why that is?
Alternative options?
Ideal solution
Platform aside (1:35)
Pretending we can (Metrics question) (1:59)
Asking prospects WHY
From "WHY" to "WHAT" (1:29)
Listening Triggers
The Four Triggers (4:08)
Keeping the thread (1:10)
Calling Out The Prospect
Context for this section (0:39)
You don't have a problem [Updated] (2:50)
You don't believe we can help you (0:45)
You'll be ok without us
Lost opportunity (1 of 2) (0:57)
Lost opportunity (2 of 2) (1:07)
Mutual skepticism (2:37)
Empathetic statements
If you're not going to use the platform
Questions on Questions
Great phrases to use (1:36)
Everything About Your DEMO
BEFORE Your Demo (4:56)
DURING your demo (Discovery questions) (1:23)
DURING your demo (Clarification questions)
Open ended type questions (1:01)
When More People Are Joining (1:58)
Point out BOTH Gains and Loss Prevention
What stood out?
Worst Solution Ever?
Buying Process Questions (2:23)
Teasing pricing (Version 1)
Teasing pricing (Version 2)
How do you feel about the Pricing?
Fixing a bad habit (1:22)
The Mysterious Discovery/Demo
Context for this section (0:37)
Demo on your first call (2:03)
The classic Intro/Demo call
The End Of Your Calls (How to)
The TWO Outcomes
End of Call Clarification Questions
What do you anticipate?
Effective Impact Questions
Context for this section (1:43)
Can I ask?
Have you thought about...?
What's that costing?
Stories and Metrics
Looking for a story (1:54)
Financial impact questions
Prospect Objections (Negotiation)
Context for this section (1:32)
Isolating the objection (0:59)
"Can we get a lower price?" [Updated]
"The price is quite high"
"That price is quite high for this tool"
"Can we get more seats?" (0:24)
"Can we get a discount?"
"This is more expensive than I thought"
"Can we get a discount?" 4 Levers
"I can't get budget from other groups"
"We realized we don't have the budget for this" (0:55)
"That's more than we were looking to spend"
"We're really happy with what we have now"
"What's the ROI from clients that work with you?"
Once an agreement is sent - Make the call!
"Your competitor is cheaper"
"What's the best price we can get?"
Prospect Objections (Losing Control)
Context for this section (0:47)
"We don't know what we don't know"
"Can we just see a demo?" / "We only have 20 minutes"
"Send us the pricing and we'll get back to you"
"We left the other vendor because they were too expensive"
"I am the decision maker"
"My boss does not need a demo"
"Let's discuss with our team & get back to you"
"Let's discuss with our team & get back to you" (Version II) (2:00)
"None of that resonates with us"
"Just email us the pricing"
What is the Pricing? (Aggressive Prospect) (3:34)
Looking For Trouble
Context on this section (0:43)
Reasons not to work together (1:07)
Timing or something else? (0:59)
Price aside
Getting Ahead of Procurement
Dealing with procurement (0:51)
The PROSPECT'S Competition
Bringing up your competition
Poor economic environment (1:05)
Poor economic environment II (2:17)
Poor economic environment III
Trigger opportunities (1:26)
Pricing Phraseology
The range
I don't suppose
Most often
Helpful 'Conversation Twisters'
Context for this session (0:40)
"Just so I.."
"Just curious"
Twister Master Summary
FUN ways to get your contract back via email
Context for this section (1:03)
More accurate than optimistic (phone) (1:12)
More accurate than optimistic (emails) (1:54)
Going Golfing
We haven't reviewed the contract yet
Making sure you're on the same page
When you WANT to walk away from a deal
When your late stage prospect keeps ghosting you
Teasing Pricing
Teasing pricing flexibility (Email)
Ingredients To Ask Better Questions
Bringing the Future To The Present (1:25)
Reasons for your questions
My Discovery Advice
Context for this section (0:25)
Be A Sloth (2:31)
Fire yourself from your job (2:46)
The THREE Things (2:08)
Hang this next to your laptop
Mindset Advice (2:25)
Not necessary
My biggest regret in discovery
Don't be so giving (1:29)
How To Not Die Alone
Biggest Sales Mistake I Made
A Very Embarrassing Story (1:00)
What Helped Me Hit My Quota (2:15)
Negative Impact questions are AWKWARD
Stay in control (2:26)
Express your assumptions
If you only had two choices (0:40)
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Time To Be Contrarian About U.S. Stock Holdings
I recently wrote about U.S. stocks recovering their valuations after this year's sell-off. However, that doesn't mean the market's rise is over. There is another source of gains that is potentially very large. However, to view it, we need to take a contrarian stance. This article is posted on SeekingAlpha.com »
Stock Market's Health: Recovered, But Not Yet Normal
The stock market has fully recovered its lost ground from this year's sell-off. Analysts and investors have now incorporated lower economic growth forecasts, information from company earnings reports/outlooks, and mega-trend fears. Evaluating the earnings adjustments and the stock market's valuation show a stock market that has recovered from its oversold position. Moreover, future growth... »
Low Consumer Confidence: A Nice Contrarian Indicator
Throughout the summer, we've heard about declining consumer confidence (AKA, sentiment). The conclusion typically drawn is that low consumer confidence now likely means low consumer spending ahead. Until recently, warnings have been sounded about weak winter holiday sales. Now, however, consumer confidence readings are creeping back, and retail sales are actually looking good. How... »
Wall Street Signals A Bull Market In U.S. Stocks
It's been slow coming. After a rare quadruple bottom, the U.S. stock market has risen this month (October, no less!) amidst continuing angst and warnings. The whisper economic reports ("psst… they're actually looking better") remained out of the spotlight as Europe, politics and other negative "stuff" was tossed about as proof that we were... »
Alcoa's Outlook Implies Large Market Gains Ahead; Will JP Morgan Follow?
This earnings season just kicked off with a major surprise from Alcoa. It wasn't what Alcoa (AA) did – it's what it said. Although last quarter's earnings came in under analysts' already reduced estimates, management kept its sales growth forecasts virtually unchanged. "Kept" implies a passive, do-nothing attitude. Actually, it's an active statement founded... »
Last Week Set The Stage For A Bull Market
Smokey the Bear just flipped his sign to "Safe" and headed toward his cave to hibernate. Just when the match touched the kindling, a drenching rainstorm put out the fire. We can now confidently walk in the forest (AKA, the stock market) once again. After last Monday's high volume sell-off drove the market to... »
Beware And Prepare For A Mini Market Flash Crash
Smokey the Bear's fire indicator is pointing to "Danger!" To me, the stock market's conditions are like a tinder-dry forest. While we cannot know if a spark will ignite a fire, we can beware and prepare for the possibility. Article posted on SeekingAlpha.com »
Stock Market Battle Near Resolution: Time To Be A Schizophrenic Opportunist
October's first two weeks could provide stock investors with a good opportunity to make money — by being simultaneously bullish and bearish. However, this schizophrenic attitude doesn't necessarily mean hedging is the best approach. I believe there is another strategy that could produce better gains in the end. Article posted on SeekingAlpha.com »
Stock Market's 3rd Quarter Drop Means 80% Chance Of Rise
Stock market quarters can have unique personalities. Usually, a quarter has a controlled range of volatility with different industries and stocks producing a diversified movement for the market as a whole. However, occasionally things come unglued and a strong trend affecting most stocks takes hold (either positive or negative). Of the past 200 quarters... »
Market Signals A Bottom: Time To Own Stocks
The headlines would have us believe the stock market plummeted – again. The explanation is that everything is going wrong, capped by those frightening words: "Global Recession." However, last week's stock market message isn't what it did, it's what it didn't do. This article is posted on SeekingAlpha.com »
Dig In To The Dow For 20% To 30% Potential Return
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Double Bottom — UPDATE
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Double Bottom? This Powerful, Positive Indicator Could Be Forming
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The 3 C's Needed for Investment Success – Now More Than Ever
News reports, pundit predictions, radio talk shows and reader comments have reached loud, negative levels. Unbridled pessimism has sprung up regarding just about everything. Like last year at this time, events and facts have been blown out of proportion and only negative indicators are taken as the "truth" with which to forecast a trend.... »
Why Dunkin' Donuts' IPO Success Is Good News for KKR
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About Bart Van LeeuwenModern RomanticsA fashion photographer who completely rewrote the rules of his trade, he used the city streets as expressive backdrops, which offered an almost casual perspective on cutting-edge fashion designs, and favoured coincidence…BACKGROUND INFORMATION
Modern Romantics
A fashion photographer who completely rewrote the rules of his trade, he used the city streets as expressive backdrops, which offered an almost casual perspective on cutting-edge fashion designs, and favoured coincidence over carefully crafted poses, Bart van Leeuwen was a master of his profession. His body of work is an intoxicating journey into sensual metropolises like Naples and through fashion capitals such as New York and Paris. The Dutch artist captured the poetic stories of everyday life with cinematographic elegance, drawing inspiration from the contrast-rich style of Film Noir and from Italian neorealism.
Van Leeuwen's life seems almost too remarkable to capture in just a few words. As a young fashion photographer, he made his way to the epicentres of haute couture; Paris and New York became his home during one of the most legendary eras in the history of fashion and art. The centre of his life was the fabled Chelsea Hotel. Andy Warhol filmed parts of "The Chelsea Girl" there, which enhanced the already mythical nature of the red brick building. Van Leeuwen's works reflect the atmosphere of these bizarre, brilliant times at "the factory" and the fluctuation between avant-garde and underground. His work was intimately intertwined with his life; the artist's first wife, Apollonia von Ravenstein, was both his model and his muse. He also photographed his second wife in a seductive pose, one of the rare occasions in which his model looks directly at the viewer. According to Van Leeuwen, "eye contact makes a spectator present in a mise-en-scène. Without it, an observer remains just that, observer of another reality which is actually an ancient principle from the art of painting." Instead, he used an intensely narrative approach, and the images from his "Modern Romantics" series seem like scenes from a film.
Van Leeuwen's photographic oeuvre is characterised by chance and spontaneity. Whether shooting Andy Warhol during a workout in the factory or capturing Freddy Mercury, Jean-Michel Basquiat, and Grace Jones as they happened to stand opposite him: "I always tried to be open to coincidences, not restricting myself to a pre-defined concept, to find things I wasn't even looking for but that were actually better than I could have imagined." The glamorous world of years gone by, captured in Van Leeuwen's photographs, can be found in the private collections of fashion designers such as Theirry Mugler or Christian Lacroix, as well as in the Andy Warhol museum in Pittsburgh.
The majority of the photographs in this series stems from the late 80s and early 90s. Due to a neuromuscular disease, Van Leeuwen stepped out of the public eye in 2005.
Hannah Hör
Bart van Leeuwen ( Amsterdam,1950 ), born in an artistic family of musicians and painters, published his first pictures in Dutch underground magazine Hitweek in 1967, graduated from the School for Professional Photography in The Hague in 1969 and started to work as a freelance photographer in 1971. Inspired by film noir, Italian neorealism and photographers like Avedon, Brassaï, Frank, Kertész, Lartigue, Newton and Penn he developed a narrative, cinematographic style, linking facts and fiction.
He travelled the world for magazines like Avenue, Cosmopolitan, Elle, Elegance, Esquire, Harpers Bazaar, i-D, Kult, Marie-Claire, Oor, Playboy, Sunday Times, Viva and Wallpaper and companies such as ABN, Agnès B, Barclays, Bilderberg, Bijenkorf, CBS, Harrods, ING, Levi's, Matinique, Philips, RCA, René Lezard, Sara Lee, Woolmark and Volvo, shooting fashion stories, advertising campaigns and portraits.
Andy Warhol, Bob Geldof, Candy Dulfer, Carice van Houten, Dizzy Gillespie, Freddy Mercury, Giorgio Armani, Grace Jones, Herman Brood, Jean-Michel Basquiat, Jerry Hall, John Cale, Nina Hagen and Sylvia Kristel are among the celebrities he photographed.
He has won several awards ( ADCN i.a.) and gave lectures on photography at academies in Amsterdam ( Rietveld ), Rotterdam ( WdKA ) and Bruxelles ( St. Lukas ).VITA
1950 Born in Amsterdam (NL) 1969 Royal Academy of Art, The Haugue, Den Haag (NL) Lived and worked in Amsterdam (NL), Paris (FR), New York (USA), due to a neuromuscular disorder he retired in 2005 and lives outside of Amsterdam (NL) Died 2017 Exhibitions
Solo Exhibitions
2008 BlowUp Gallery, Bart van Leeuwen – 40 Years of Fashion, Amsterdam NL 2004 BlowUp Gallery, Bart van Leeuwen, Amsterdam NL Group Exhibitions
2013 Foam, Framed in Print, Amsterdam NL 2010 DFF Gallery, Zoom, Eyes on Dutch Fashion, The Hague NL 2009 BlowUp Gallery, Uppercuts, Amsterdam NL 2008 BlowUp Gallery, Dutch Nudes, Amsterdam NL 2007 Wouter van Leeuwen Gallery, Andy Warhol, Amsterdam NL 2006 Nederlands Fotomuseum, Avenue A – Z, Rotterdam NL 2004 Downtown Gallery, BlowUp Photographers, Amsterdam NL 2003 Kunsthal, Playboy Photography, Rotterdam NL BlowUp Gallery, 11 Photographers, Amsterdam NL Naarden Photo, 50 Years Nieuwe Revu, Naarden NL Naarden Photo, Style of Life, Naarden NL Breda Photo, Breda NL Christies, Aids Fund, Amsterdam NL 2002 VNU, 30 x 30, 30 Years Viva, Amsterdam NL Downtown Gallery, Pim Thomassen, Amsterdam NL Scheringa Museum, 50 Years of Fashion, Spanbroek NL Reflections, Urban Perceptions, Amsterdam NL 2000 Historic Museum, Young, Rotterdam NL Museum of Drenthe, Young, Assen NL 1999 Kring, War Child, Amsterdam NL Scheringa Museum, Fong Leng 'Diva', Spanbroek NL Lumiere, SVFN, Durgerdam NL 1998 PanL, Amsterdam NL Jablonka Gallery, Andy Warhol, Köln DE Westergasfabriek, PanL, Amsterdam NL Bijenkorf, Doors to India, Amsterdam NL 1995 Naarden Photo, Ego Document, Naarden NL Dejeuner sur l'Herbe, Paris FR 1994 European Photography, Yokohama JP 1993 Naarden Photo, Naarden NL 1992 St. Lucas Institute, Bruxelles BE Kleurgamma, Amsterdam NL 1991 Naarden Photo, Naarden NL 1990 Dunhill Dutch Photography, Amstelveen NL 1989 Dunhill Dutch Photography, Arnhem NL Sonesta Gallery, Avenue, Amsterdam NL Dunhill Dutch Photography, Assen NL Naarden Photo, Naarden NL Focus Gallery, Nudes, Amsterdam NL 1988 Dunhill Dutch Photography, Utrecht NL Dunhill Dutch Photography, St. Petersburg RU
Dunhill Dutch Photography, Moscow RUModam, Amsterdam NL 1987 Month of Photography, Athens GR Dunhill Dutch Photography, Amsterdam NL Dunhill Dutch Photography, Amstelveen NL Institut Néerlandais, Le Vent du Nord, Paris FR 1986 Dunhill Dutch Photography, Lelystad NL 1985 Canon Gallery, 20 Years Avenue, Amsterdam NL Aemstelle, Dunhill Dutch Photography, Amstelveen NL 1984 Kodak Gallery, Odijk NL KLM Gallery, Tokio JP 1983 Mazzo, Amsterdam NL 1982 KLM Gallery, New York US 1975 Gallery Fiolet, Amsterdam NL


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Dr. Thomas Reeves is at the pinnacle of his career. The Department of Defense has awarded him a lucrative contract for his new research into superior autobiographical memory, which promises the ability to create combat troops able to quickly learn complex battle plans and enact them perfectly under the most demanding battlefield scenarios.
An elite unit has received neural grafts from fetal cadavers of genetically altered brain cells with enhanced NMDA receptors. The results are remarkable . . . until the recipients begin suffering hallucinations, nightmares, paralysis, . . . and death. Dr. Reeves searches for answers, but DOD insiders want him to stop the search.
The situation becomes public when pediatric ICU nurse Morgan Adams, Dr. Reeves's daughter, is taken hostage by three research subjects in an attempt to force Dr. Reeves into disclosing why they are sick. If answers aren't revealed within twenty-four hours, patients in the pediatric ICU will be killed.
This spine-tingling conclusion to the Bloodline Trilogy raises spiritual and ethical dilemmas torn directly out of today's headlines. When does life begin? How far does commitment to family go? And can the sins of the father ever be forgiven?


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tLZ devices are taking shape
Under development
Landis+Gyr is developing instruments for the tLZ project according to a contract with the utilities RWE, EnBW and E.ON Energy. First important project milestones have already been reached.
The project, which is partly financed by the German Ministry for Science and Technology, sets new standards for energy measurement at industrial and at small and medium-sized commercial sites.
Demonstrating ability
The tLZ group will be at the E-World Energy and Water exhibition in Essen, Germany, between 19 and 21 February 2008. A first sample meter will be on show at the stand.


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I was asked by the organisers of the Mortimer Society Conference if I would give a paper loosely on the subject of matters or personalities concerned with Magna Carta for their annual day of lectures at Hereford Academy.
Slightly daunted to be in the august company of lecturers and academics who know the period inside out at degree level, I nevertheless decided nothing ventured nothing gained and agreed to do so. The result was this - a piece on the relationship between the Marshal and King John. Other than a few photos to break up the narrative, this is the article verbatim.
I am so glad I agreed to lecture at Hereford. I met some old friends and readers, and said hello again to the lovely indie bookseller from Ludlow. The lecturers were absolutely charming and not at all 'ivory' tower and were as interested in what I had to say, as I was in their work. So, all in all a great exchange, and enjoyable at all levels!


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Special Comics Vol 1: (1942-1942) (published by Archie Comics) This page contains a list of all comics in the series including items such as trade paperback books, magazines, and other items of interest. If you have found a comic or item that is not seen on this page, please add it to this list. |
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- Comics from Special Comics Vol 1
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Back to Comics Contents : Comics S : Special Comics Vol 1
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History Section Needed! The history section for this article is either absent or contains very little information. You can improve this article by adding as much relevant historical information as possible. Articles should be written from an "in-universe" perspective as if they were written by a historian living in the Template:Archie Universe. |


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Saturday, March 11, 2006
Neo-Classical Growth?
Is there, or isn't there an ageing impact on our economies? Well one way of addressing this issue is to look at the recent economic performance of some of those who are most directly affected. Now one of the key postulates of neo-classical growth theory is that each economy has its own long run steady state growth rate. This is in many ways a highly questionable assumption and is one which, with the notable exception of the US, is very hard to sustain empirically over the longer term. Economic performance tends to fluctuate, the big question is: does it fluctuate following any kind of identifiable pattern?
Well, lets take a look at the Japanese case. Here's a convenient graph of Japanese economic growth 1955 to 2003 prepared by US economist Michael Smitka from Japanese data available here.
What is obvious from looking at this profile is that Japanese growth has been far from uniform over the last 50 years or so. This really shouldn't be so surprising when we think about economic theory a little. Key components of economic growth are the proportions of the total population working, and the kinds of activities they are engaged in. Now if we look at the early part of the graph we can see very high growth rates (which we can also find in eg China now). These are due in part to an ever greater part of the total population becoming involved in economically productive activity, and to a technological 'catching up' process. As developing countries tend to start at some distance from the existing technological frontier then growth can be proportionately more rapid as they close the distance (again this can be seen now in the Eastern European EU accession economies).
With time this growth spurt eventually slows, but the loss is to some extent offset as a society moves up the median age brackets by a growing importance of what have come to be known as 'prime age workers'. The prime age wage/productivity effect can be seen in the chart below which shows how the age related earnings structure has altered in Japan over the years between 1970 and 1997.
The most important point to note is that wages generally peak somewhere in the 50-54 range (even though many workers in Japan currently continue to work to 75) and this wage profile may be assumed to be some sort of proxy for what actually happens to productivity. One very revealing detail is that while the shape of the hump has changed somewhat over the years there has been little noticeable drift to the right, which should give some indication of the age-related productivity problem.
Going back to the upper chart, post-bubble Japan has grown significantly more slowly, although thanks to the strong export position (and China related demand) the economy has still managed an average of 2.5% a year since the end of 2001.
The same cannot be said of Italy, which due to its much weaker product profile cannot expect the export vibrance that a Germany or a Japan can attain, but as can be seen from the accompanying graph, trend growth in Italy has been steadily declining since the end of the 1960s:
Indeed since 1990 Italian GDP growth has only managed an average of something like 1.4% growth per annum, as can be seen is the next chart.
As the Economist (from whom the accompanying chart is drawn) points out Italy's average economic growth over the past 15 years has been the slowest in the European Union, and all the years of low growth take a toll, since it's economy is now only about 80% the size of the UK one.
The German case, whilst it is significantly better than the Italian one, still shows some similar characteristics. According to the Federal Statistics Office:
Measured in terms of gross domestic product changes at 1995 prices, the rates of economic growth in the former territory of the Federal Republic of Germany and - since 1991 - in Germany have continuously declined since 1970. While the average annual change was 2.8% between 1970 and 1980, it amounted to 2.6% between 1980 and 1991 and to 1.5% between 1991 and 2001.
Recent years have been worse rather than better, and the German economy shrank (0.2%) in 2003, and grew by 1.1% in both 2004 and 2005.
So there we have it. Japan, Germany and Italy are the three oldest societies on the planet (median ages 42.64,42.16 and 41.77 respectively), and the economic growth record seems to bear out the suggestion that ageing does have a noteable impact on economic performance.
14 comments:
- CV said...
Excellent post Edward ... Especially this;
"Key components of economic growth are the proportions of the total population working, and the kinds of activities they are engaged in."
This epitomizes that economics and demograhics go hand in hand and crucially that the potential output on an economy is fixed with the population as an anchor. So simple, yet so important.
More elaborated comments will follow later :). - 1:14 AM
- CV said...
Time for some more elaborated comments I think ...
What are we seeing here?
Apart from the obvious point (stated in my comment above) I think we can draw out another important point which for example relates to all the current flurry on Japan's recovery. The main reason why I think Japan's recovery is anything but sustainble is because I simply do not see the domestic "climate" to support a recovery. This do not mean that Japan is going to go bankrupt but it means that the potential output of the economy will most likely decline which means that the recovery of Japan most likely won't bring them back amongst the growth tigers of the world.
I know that I am perhaps just re-capping Edward's arguments but to state my main point (also Edward's I suspect?) this is important in an economics theory/research perspective because demographics become an important underlying variable for macro-economists to consider. Is this news ? Perhaps not and demographics might not be the only determinant factor but surely an important one especially to balance and differentiate all those claims of recovery in Germany and Japan. - 2:04 PM
- Celal Birader said...
It would be good to know if there were any countries (among the OECD for instance) for which the "Age Earning Profile" showed a different pattern and how that correlated to growth.
The pattern you have highlighted may simply be due to structural ageism : everybody wants to employ young fresh blood to whom they can pay low wages and mould the way they like. That doesn't make them more "productive" or older employees less so.
Does experience of life and work count for nothing ? In that case all our CEOs should be under 30, right ? - 3:26 PM
- Celal Birader said...
i realise i need to clarify my earlier post further. it may be misleading as it stands. i stand by my point re structural ageism but the pattern may be due to labour supply and demand - you are willing to pay more for a younger person or alternatively let go an older person because you can work the younger person harder but not necessarily smarter which is what you need for real productivity in a knowledge economy.
- Edward Hugh said...
Hi Celal,
"The pattern you have highlighted may simply be due to structural ageism : everybody wants to employ young fresh blood to whom they can pay low wages and mould the way they like."
Well it isn't as simple as that. Young people are in fact not very productive, that is why the curve is lower in the younger ages ranges and rises to a peak around 50 to 55.
There are two factors which tend to work in opposing dircetions: speed (including cognitive processing speed) and experience.
Young people score high on the former, older people higher on the latter. Thus 'productivity' may vary widely across occupations (and these curves only reveal aggregates). Young mathematicians or athletes on the one hand, and judges or Chairmen of the Federal Reserve on the other.
But I am also saying more. For 'ageing' to be manageable these curves need to shift to the right, we need to enlarge our productive years to balance the increase in life expectancy, if we don't we can't expect to sustain our pensions systems. This is known as proportional life rescaling and I will be writing much more on this topic.
"It would be good to know if there were any countries (among the OECD for instance) for which the "Age Earning Profile" showed a different pattern"
I'm afraid not. These curves are the nearest thing we have to a 'universal', they go across countries and across time, though the shape of the curve and the ages ranges vary.
The Tsimane project (see sidebar) have even identified these in a hunter gatherer context among native Indians in Peru and Bolivia. Berkeley demographer Ronald Lee has also made great use of all this.
Again more, nuch more, on all this in the not too distant future.
"because you can work the younger person harder but not necessarily smarter"
Yes, this is really the trade off. - 7:15 AM
I would like to add some results of quantitative analysis to your post. Actually, real economic growth is driven by the change in the inflow of young people (from 9 years of age in the USA to 18 - in Japan and Euroipean countries) not the ageing.
The fluctuations of this specific- (young)-age population just add to some potential growth, which rate is inversely proportional to the attained level of real GDP per capita. Only growing over time inflow of the youngsters (as in the USA since 1960) can slightly increase the potential growth.
In European countries, usually the inflow has been constant (or decreasing) over the last 50 years and they have been developing at the potential rate.
Interesting, Ireland is a country with a very strange population pyramide, which is very similar to that in Japan 30 years ago. I would bet that dark ( underpotential performance and deflation) years are coming.
Here ae some links to the quantitative analysis :
http://ikitov.blogspot.com/2006/05/japanese-economy-ivan-o.html - 2:42 PM
- Edward Hugh said...
Hi Ivan,
I've just left a comment on one of your posts. Nothing special, but I do think you are barking up the RIGHT tree.
The way you talk sometimes seems a little determinist, but, OTOH, I am convinced, as evidently you are, that all of this may be much more simple than many people imagine.
You are coming up with correlates, I think Claus and I can offer reasons for why these correlates might be there. Maybe we should talk.
Also, try this one from Robert Martin, my guess is that you will like it.
Edward - 3:13 PM
Hi everybody,
very interesting ideas throughout this blog. Ivan's analysis ( I just read the abstract not the whole paper) is very interesting. I have a reservation in that (as it happens very much in medicine/biology) you can find corelations between different things but that in itself does not prove a causal relationship.
on topic: it will be very interesting to see how Japan, Germany and Italy will navigate the near future. The question is if the slow economic growth that these countries are facing due to demographic constraints is going to affect them as much as we may think. They are wealthy countries ( GDP is important but wealth is probably even more important), they are also well educated ones and they are also quite scientifically and technologically savvy places. even though their global economic clout may diminish they still can hope in increase in the GDP per capita.
as we enter the "knowledge based economy" demography may play a different role than in the industrial society. of course reforms will be needed ( social security systems created for industrial world may not work in the new situation).
even though I have a dose of scepticism about the degree of anthropologic impact on climatic change ( not quite sure that rising CO2 concentration in atmosphere will necesarily have such a big impact as a lot of people are now concerned will have) I do agree that we should be careful about it. from this perspective plateauing of the world population would be absolutely a positive development.
I am also not sure if the slow population decline in developed countries (and estimated in the developing countries) is such a bad thing for them and for the world. this in and by itself does not preclude that the mankind will not be able to achieve a golden age when most of its people will live long, healthy and prosperous lives on a beautiful planet. - 4:31 PM
- Edward Hugh said...
Hello Hoosier,
Sorry I have been so long getting back, but I have been really busy the last ten days or so, and since you make points I need to think about I have found it hard to grap a sufficiently large space of time.
"you can find corelations between different things but that in itself does not prove a causal relationship."
I totally agree, you need correlations and a theoretical explanation, and then you need predictions, and testing and more correlations and so on. Still getting some sort of correlation or another is always a good start. If you begin to dig and then the data don't fit at all you are obviously completely wasting your time, but this doesn't seem to be the case here.
I am currently working on a new version of this post (that you can find here) and I am coming up with even more correlates. Basically you also need to take into account existing theory, since we never work in a vacuum.
Basically there may well be no absolutes here, and maybe we are simply looking for the theoretical explanation which does the best job of work, and this is why I put Neo-classical theory on the test-bed, not because I have an axe to grind, but because it is the best we have, and yet in this case our best just doesn't seem to be good enough.
"The question is if the slow economic growth that these countries are facing due to demographic constraints is going to affect them as much as we may think."
Exactly, and this is a question of being out there, and examining, and scrutinising every day. Since we haven't been here before, we simply don't know. But if you look carefully enough you can find cracks appearing in the structural walls that don't look at all promising.
The main question I think is how to carry the burden of an ever increasing elderly dependent population. To find the resources to achieve this you need economic growth, and to get economic growth in ageing societies it needs to be exports driven, since internal demand is not strong, and this appears to generate a certain fragility about the whole situation. Certainly I don't think it is a mere coincidence that two of the oldest three - Japan and Italy - also have the highest Debt to GDP ratios of any country. This raises serious sustainability issues should their economies actually start to shrink at some point as population declines.
"They are wealthy countries ( GDP is important but wealth is probably even more important), they are also well educated ones and they are also quite scientifically and technologically savvy places. even though their global economic clout may diminish they still can hope in increase in the GDP per capita."
Certainly they can hope to get an increase in GDP per capita, but if you look at the charts I present in the new version of this post, the rate of increase is slowing notably when compared with their younger counterparts. At this point we simply don't know how far this can go. On the wealthy issue, I think you need to bear in mind that wealth is always relative, and in this case relative currency values are important.
As I try to argue in this post (and again in this one) large chages in currency values are taking place which over time will significantly change the global ranking in this sense.
Also, it isn't clear how much some of these countries are raising the human capital level of their young generations in comparison with the natural wear and tear that occurs as large cohorts age. Basically people who were quite well educated 30 to 40 years ago may not have the appropriate skill-knowledge set to have a lot of value in today's knowledge economy, as I try to point out in this very long piece on the German labour market.The evidence seems to suggest that the countries in question are having success in boosing employment participation rates among older workers, but that the economic value of this is very low indeed. I wouldn't say exactly like child labour in India or Brazil, but if you let yourself think about the possible symmetries in this situation, then you wouldn't be too far from the right ballpark. The similarity comes from having in both cases very large cohorts in precisely the wrong age groups.
"from this perspective plateauing of the world population would be absolutely a positive development."
I think this is right. Stabilising global population is an important objective. The tricky part are the transitional dynamics.
"I am also not sure if the slow population decline in developed countries (and estimated in the developing countries) is such a bad thing for them and for the world."
No, I am sure it isn't. We need to distinguish between the excessively high population growth rates in the very high fertility societies, and the excessively low (and even negative rates) in the lowest low fertility societies. BOTH situations are undesireable. There ought to be a level which is "just right", and we ought to be trying to target that. This means applying some of the things we have learnt in the already developed societies to the now developing ones, and in particular getting across to them the importance of not letting fertility drop as low as it has done in some parts of Europe and Asia. At present this is simply not being done. - 8:05 AM
- ethan said...
- This comment has been removed by the author.
- infusion art said...
Woops well that came out wrong, thanks for the great comments guys really interesting read!
- Roger said...
Some wonderful comments, thanks a lot for the insights!
http://www.simplycanvasart.co.uk/ - 1:54 PM
- Mohka said...
You make some very salient points Edward, great read.
- Commercial Coffee Machines said...
Woops well that came out wrong, thanks for the great comments guys really interesting read!


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A new line of beverages containing "active hemp extract" debuts in stores this week, which may push the FDA closer to establishing a regulatory framework
In 2017, no one knew what CBD oil was. In 2018, folks stumbled saying "cannabidiol" (that's CBD oil) out loud. In 2019, it's everywhere, and everyone wants in on it.
In flavors like "cucumber mint refresh" and "watermelon renew," a new line of CBD-infused waters and teas is hitting major grocery stores in California and Colorado on Monday, each 16-ounce bottle containing 20 milligrams, or trace amounts, of "active hemp extract."
These beverages by the Oki company are among the first wave of large-production, mainstream products that are taking CBD out of the neighborhood head shop, dispensary or hippie health food store and into mainstream commerce.
It fits into a new conception of health, wellness and functional foods that includes the nonintoxicating benefits of this chemical compound without the psychoactive THC found in marijuana.
But at the federal level, CBD in food and drink is still illegal. The Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act prohibits adding even approved drugs to human or animal food in interstate commerce.
The 2018 Farm Bill legalized hemp, but the legal status of hemp-derived cannabidiol remains in limbo. This is largely because CBD can be derived from hemp or cannabis, but if a hemp plant contains more than 0.3 percent THC (the active "high" ingredient in marijuana) it is then technically a "marijuana" plant. It's confusing. Experts say drafting and implementing regulations could take years.
Amy Abernethy, the FDA's principal deputy commissioner, has taken the lead on clarifying the agency's position on regulation of CBD-infused products, using Twitter as a primary mechanism for conveying the agency's thought process.
On June 16, the FDA released a document called "What You Need to Know (And What We're Working to Find Out)" that states: "We are aware that there may be some products on the market that add CBD to a food or label CBD as a dietary supplement. Under federal law, it is currently illegal to market CBD this way."
When asked which instances of CBD sale might prompt legal action, the FDA said it had no additional comments but that the agency had opened a docket for the public to submit comments through July 2. There are 2,554 comments thus far, and that date has been extended to July 16.
Brands as diverse as Ben & Jerry's and Coca-Cola are chomping at the bit to launch CBD-infused products, and stores like Walgreens, Kroger and CVS have vowed to sell them. More than 1,000 CBD-infused products are now available online.
Why the rush?
Oki beverages have a suggested retail price of $5 per 16-ounce a bottle; a 16.9-ounce bottle of Nestlé water, by comparison, is about 54 cents. Boris Savransky's Beezy Beez, which produces honey from a network of more than 200 bee farms in New York and New Jersey, started producing Hempme CBD-infused honey a year ago. Twelve ounces of his regular honey costs $5.99 to $6.99; six ounces of CBD-infused honey is $55. For honey, that's a sweet markup.
Until now CBD products have been mostly tinctures, lotions and capsules, local or regional mom-and-pop items sold at dispensaries and often offshoots of the marijuana industry. Oki, with 360,000 bottles produced so far, aims bigger.
"Many of these companies stay intrastate because of bandwidth and financial resources," said Garrett Graff, managing attorney at Hoban Law Group in Denver, which calls itself the nation's premier "cannabusiness" law firm and represents more than 200 cannabis and hemp companies, including Oki.
Very few of the companies Graff's firm works with have the ability to scale up to meet the ongoing supply needs of a major grocery chain or big-box store, yet market research firm Brightfield Group predicts the CBD oil business could balloon to a $22 billion market by 2022. Being among the first "marquee" national brands has the potential to be very lucrative.
In 33 states and D.C., medical marijuana is legal. In 10 of those states (plus D.C.) recreational marijuana is legal.
Amid that legal patchwork, each state is adopting its own strategies for dealing with CBD in food and beverages. Indiana, Utah, Texas and Florida require a QR code that allows consumers to look up batch numbers, potency and other ingredients. In May, Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt (R) approved a bill to establish labeling requirements for CBD and hemp extracts. In Florida, a state hemp program goes into effect July 1 establishing licensing requirements and a framework for dealing with violations, corrective measures and enforcement in the sale of CBD products.
So far, the FDA has looked the other way for intrastate commerce in CBD foods (Carls Jr. rolling out a CBD-infused "special sauce" burger in Denver for "4/20 Day," say).
But interstate sales are thornier. Many banks, insurance companies and merchant service companies are leery of providing services for national CBD companies and of the FDA stepping in to see whether the claimed CBD levels are present in the products (spoiler: they frequently aren't) and issuing warnings to companies making "egregious and unfounded claims that are aimed at vulnerable populations," claims that it cures Alzheimer's, cervical cancer, fibromyalgia and more.
Jim Bailey, the chief executive of Oki's parent company Phivida, said there's enormous potential in CBD — even though Oki labels make no mention of CBD, preferring to advertise "active hemp extract" to satisfy skittish retailers.
"Define what luxury means to you today. It's health and wellness, and there's a movement back toward plant-based foods and functional foods. We started looking at CBD uses for anxiety and insomnia," Bailey said.
Oki water labels and marketing materials make no claims beyond, ""feel calm, feel balanced."
But the sheer scale of Oki's launch might arouse the FDA's ire. Produced and bottled outside of Dallas, waters from the Vancouver-based company are likely trucked through states like New Mexico, where marijuana remains illegal, before reaching their final retail outlet — the very definition of interstate commerce.
Industry experts predict the launch of scalable commercial CBD products will force the FDA to expedite a federal regulatory framework.
"States are confused and lost and seeking guidance," Graff said. "Even bullet points like 'comply with good manufacturing practices' and 'don't make impermissible health claims.' If you had that interim guidance, you'd see huge relief among states."
Graff and other experts are confident the FDA will soften its stance that CBD is not "safe as a food additive," perhaps taking cues from Canada, where new rules governing the production and sale of edibles go into effect Oct. 17. But questions remain about what CBD does, how safe it is and whether companies and even consumers open themselves up to legal action in partaking before a regulatory framework has been hashed out.
Because hemp has historically been coupled with marijuana, there has been little scientific research into safe dosages, drug interactions and the long-term effects of CBD use.
The University of Mississippi is the only federally authorized researcher of marijuana. Otherwise researchers must obtain materials through the National Institute on Drug Abuse. Graff said many companies have sought to do research with universities but have been stymied by red tape.
Graff said that many companies embrace third-party testing of products and "sensible" inspection.
"We all want the same thing in terms of consumer safety. That's the same for any other product out there. Hemp should be treated equally under the law."


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From D&D Wiki
This material is published under the OGL 1.0a. |
Wingover [General]
Fly speed.
A flying creature with this feat can change direction quickly once each round as a free action. This feat allows it to turn up to 180 degrees regardless of its maneuverability, in addition to any other turns it is normally allowed. A creature cannot gain altitude during a round when it executes a wingover, but it can dive.
The change of direction consumes 10 feet of flying movement.
Back to Main Page → 3.5e Open Game Content → System Reference Document→ Feats


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Venkatesa Mangala Stotram
Sri Venkatesa Mangala Stotram
Translated by P. R. Ramachander
[Mangala stotras are normally recited at the end of reciting several stotras or the end of singing several songs or at the end of an auspicious function. The devotee wishes auspiciousness to the Lord. Mangalam may also mean good wishes, or wishes for a happy ending. This Mangala stotra is about Lord Venkatesa of Thirupathi. He is also known as Balaji in the north, Ezhu Malayan (lord of seven mountains in Tamil Nadu). This temple one of holiest temples of Vishnu in South India, attracts millions of devotees. Tirupati means holy city.]
Sriya kanthaya devaya,
Kalyana nidhaye arthinaam,
Sri Venkata nivasaya,
Srinivasaya mangalam 1
Mangalam to that abode of Lakshmi
Who lives in Sri Venkata*,
Who is the consort of Lakshmi
And who is the treasure to those who ask.
* Venkatachala is the last of the seven mountains on which the lord lives.
Lakshmisa vibhramaloka
Sad ma vibhrama chakshshe,
Chakshushe sarva lokanam,
Venkatesaya mangalam. 2
Mangalam to the lord of Venkata,
Who is the eye of the world,
Who is the world watched with anxiety by Lakshmi,
And who has eyes that move by her seeing.
Sri Venkatadri srungaya,
Mangala baranangraye,
Mangalaanaam nivasaya,
Venkatesaya mangalam. 3
Mangalam to the lord of Venkata,
Who is the store house of all that is good,
Who lives in the peak of Mount Venkata,
And who has the feet that does good to every one.
Sarva avayava soundarya,
Sampada sarva chethasaam,
Sada samohanayasthu,
Venkatesaya mangalam. 4
Mangalam to the lord of Venkata,
Who is always attractive,
Whose every limb is pretty,
And who has earned all powers.
Nithyaya niravadhyaya,
Sathyananda chidathmane,
Sarva antharathmane,
Srimad Venkatesaya mangalam. 5
Mangalam to the lord of Venkata,
Who exists inside every one,
Who is perennial and varied,
And who is the holy self with true happiness.
Swatha sarva vidhe,
Sarva shakthaye, sarva seshine,
Sulabhaya susheelaya,
Venkatesaya mangalam. 6
Mangalam to the lord of Venkata,
Who is easy to get and of good nature,
Who by himself knows everything,
And who is all powerful and that which remains.
Parasmai brahmane,
Poorna kaamaya paramathmane,
Prapanna para thathwaaya,
Venkatesaya mangalam. 7
Mangalam to the lord of Venkata,
Who is the real and ultimate truth,
Who is the form of Brahman,
Who is the ultimate who has fulfilled all his own wishes.
Omkara tathwa manthrantha,
Mathmanamanu pasyathaam,
Athrupthamrutha roopaya,
Venkatesaya mangalam. 8
Mangalam to the lord of Venkata,
Who has the form of salvation to those not satisfied,
Who is the ultimate meaning of the chant of "Om",
To those who realize the form of the soul.
Praya swcharanou pumsam,
Saranathwena panina,
Krupaya darsayithe,
Venkatesaya mangalam. 9
Mangalam to the lord of Venkata,
Who points out by his own hand, his own feet,
As the source of salvation.
Dayamrutha tharanginya,
Stharangai athi seethlai,
Apangai sinchathe viswam,
Venkatesaya mangalam. 10
Mangalam to the lord of Venkata,
Who waters the whole world,
By the very cold waves,
Of the river of nectar ,
Which is his mercy.
Srag bhooshambara hetheenaam,
Sushamavaha moorthaye,
Sarvarthi samanayasthu,
Venkatesaya mangalam. 11
Mangalam to the lord of Venkata,
Who destroys all sorrows and pains,
And whose body carries the glitter,
Of the ornaments and cloths that he wears.
Sri Vaikunta virakthaya,
Swami pushkaranee thate,
Remaaya rama maanaya,
Venkatesaya mangalam. 12
Mangalam to the lord of Venkata,
Who lives playing with his consort,
In the shores of Swami Pushkarani*,
After getting bored of Vaikunta.
* Swami Pushkarani is the temple tank attached to the Thirupathi temple.
Srimath Sundara jamathru,
Muni manasa vaasine,
Sarva loka nivasaya,
Srinivasaya mangalam. 13
Mangalam to that abode of Lakshmi,
Who lives all over the world,
And who lives in the mind of the sage,
Who is the son in law of Sundara*.
* The father of Padmavathi-his consort.
Nama sri venkatesaya ,
Shudha jnana swaroopine,
Vasudevavaya shanthaya,
Srinivasaya Mangalam. 14
Mangalam to that abode of Lakshmi,
Who is peaceful and son of Vasudeva,
Who is personification of pure knowledge,
And salutations to the Lord of Venkata.
Mangalasamsana parair
madacharya purogamai,
Sarvaischa poorvair acharyair,
Samsthuthayasthu Mangalam. 15
Mangalam to that Good,
Who was the object of prayer,
Of my teacher and all teachers,
Who came before him.


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Mitt Romney on Monday endorsed the idea of extending a law that curbs interest rates paid by some recipients of federal student loans, a cause that President Obama has made a campaign issue.
"Particularly with the number of college grads that can't find work or that can only find work well beneath their skill level, I fully support the effort to extend the low interest rate on student loans," Romney told reporters before a campaign event in Aston, Pa., NPR's Ari Shapiro reports.
"I support extending the temporary relief on interest rates for students as a result of student loans in part because of the extraordinarily poor conditions in the job market," Romney said.
Obama is scheduled to talk about student loan interest rates Tuesday during visits to the University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill and the University of Colorado, Boulder, and Wednesday during a visit to the University of Iowa in Iowa City. North Carolina, Colorado and Iowa are all important swing states in the general election.
"This is a question of values," Obama said in his weekly radio address on Saturday. "We cannot let America become a country where a shrinking number of people do really well, while a growing number of people struggle to get by."
Without congressional action, interest rates on subsidized federal Stafford loans for undergraduates would double on July 1, from 3.4 percent to 6.8 percent. In 2007, Congress voted to temporarily cut the rate, and that cut expires in July.
Copyright 2020 NPR. To see more, visit https://www.npr.org.


text:
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NGC 1232 is a wonderful example of a spiral galaxy with a companion at the end of one arm. It is also a wonderful example of obviously discordant redshifts that have either been covered up or are simply ignored by mainstream astronomy. NGC 1232 and its companion, NGC 1232A, were first listed as Arp 41 in Dr. Halton Arp's Atlas of Peculiar Galaxies published by Caltech in 1966. They are also discussed in Dr. Arp's book Quasars, Redshifts and Controversies (Interstellar Media, 1987) and are mentioned in several papers published by him in The Astrophysical Journal. The following image is from the European Southern Observatory's (ESO) 1.5m Danish telescope in Chile. I have cropped the original image in order to fit it on this page but it is otherwise unaltered.
From the color and morphology of NGC 1232A alone it is very apparent that it is a part of its parent galaxy NGC 1232. But if one traces the spiral arm to which NGC 1232A appears faintly connected back to the core of NGC 1232 a great disturbance and split in the arm is clearly visible. Perhaps, as Dr. Arp suggests, this is the path taken by the companion object after it was ejected from the core of the parent galaxy? Regardless of how the companion object reached its current location, I noticed during my research that its existence is either entirely ignored in the scientific literature describing NGC 1232 or it is described as being at the same or similar distance as NGC 1232. However a quick look at the NASA/IPAC Extragalactic Database (NED) reveals that not only does the companion object exist, based on its listed redshift it is supposedly located much, much further away.
According to its listing on NED the redshift of NGC 1232 is 0.005347 z which places it at a supposed distance of approximately 95 million light years from Earth using a so-called Hubble Constant value of 55 (km/s)/Mpc. However, NED lists the redshift of NGC 1232A as 0.022012 z which supposedly places the companion object at a much greater distance of approximately 390 million light years from Earth using a so-called Hubble Constant value of 55 (km/s)/Mpc. It is no surprise then that these numbers have been suppressed by the scientific community. Otherwise astronomers and cosmologist would have to face the fact that extragalactic redshifts do not represent distance or expansion of the universe for that matter. And if that were true where would that leave the Big Bang Theory and their jobs?
Another interesting feature of NGC 1232 is a small but bright object that appears right next to the aforementioned split and disturbance in the spiral arm leading out to NGC 1232A. Dr. Arp measured the redshift of this object at 28,000 km/s or 0.0934 z which places it at an astonishing 1.63 billion light years from Earth! It has been argued that this object is a distant background galaxy shining through NGC 1232 but there is no possible way a background object's light could make it through the stars and dust of a galaxy's spiral arm. Dr. Arp explains in his book Quasars, Redshifts and Controversies that even if a background object were to show through a thin area of a spiral arm its color would be deeply reddened.
There are several examples of this reddening effect visible between the arms of NGC 1232. The image on the left is a vertical slice of a larger ESO photograph showing a couple of these examples. In this image the bright high redshift object is at the top, embedded or even possibly slightly in front of the disturbed spiral arm of NGC 1232. In the middle of the image slice is a small spiral shaped object just showing through the end of a gap between the disturbed spiral arm and another large arm to the right. Notice how red the object is compared to the one at the top. Toward the bottom of the image slice is another object of the same size and morphology peeking through the edge of a small band of stars and dust between the base of the arm on the right and another arm just out of view at the very bottom of the image. This object is also the same red color as the object in the middle and both look nothing like the object at the top which is actually quite blue in comparison.
So once again we have a clear and unmistakable example of visibly associated objects that display greatly discordant redshifts thereby negating redshifts as a measure of distance and universal expansion. And yet once again the observations are completely ignored and once again I find it my duty to bring them out into the light for all to see. Eventually if enough observations are revealed their existence will no longer be able to be ignored and their implications will finally have to be faced and discussed. So as always I will keep posting to this site and thanking you for reading and encouraging everyone to pursue their own observations and to share any interesting ones!