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It rarely happens. While NetGalley is a goto place now for reviewers and others to get advanced looks at forthcoming books, it's also expensive and thus, dominated primarily by bigger publishers and authors who have the cash to spend on it. Color me surprised when, in July, I was given a special one time opportunity to get my debut novel, The Worker Prince, listed there. While the listing is for around a month only, it's a great chance to have a book named Honorable Mention by Barnes & Noble Book Club's reviewer Paul Goat Allen on his Barnes & Noble Book Clubs Year's Best SF Releases of 2011 out to more reviewers and, thus, more readers.
Within five minutes of the listing going live, we had five requests already. The listing can be found at http://netgalley.com/PopupHandler.php?module=catalog&func=galleyTitleDetails&projectid=19576 and is available in various ebook formats from .mobi and .epub to pdf and palm. Members of NetGalley simply need to search for it by name, click the More Info or Read Now links and then request their copy. It's that simple. And as soon as my publicist sees it, she'll approve it and you'll be allowed to download it and read it. Of course, we're hoping you love it, but regardless, please review it. Not just at NetGalley but at Amazon, Barnes & Noble, Goodreads and Library Thing. Why? Not just because I'm asking or out of guilt for a free copy, but because without reviews, authors and books like me and mine won't survive. The number of reviews increases the number of people who find the book in searches, and also let's them know a lot of people are reading it, giving them some idea of outside perspective on what it's about and whether it's worth their time, and that word of mouth, above all, is what sells books.
So, if you enjoy reading and free books, won't you please consider taking advantage of this unique opportunity? The Worker Prince has been frequently compared to Star Wars: A New Hope. People say it captures the feel of the original Star Wars. It's been compared to pulp and classic old fashioned space operas like Heinlein's Starship Troopers or the Jason January tales. And it's garnered praise from authors like Brenda Cooper, Maurice Broaddus, Mike Resnick, David Lee Summers and more.
Here's the teaser:
What if everything you thought you knew about yourself and the world turned out to be wrong?
For Davi Rhii, Prince of the Boralian people, that nightmare has become a reality. Freshly graduated from the prestigious Borali Military Academy, now he's discovered a secret that calls into question everything he knew about himself. His quest to rediscover himself brings him into conflict with his friends and family, calling into question his cultural values and assumptions, and putting in jeopardy all he's worked for his whole life. One thing's for sure: he's going to have to make decisions that will change his life forever…
It's a space western fantasy, epic space opera with great action, space battles, family drama, political scheming, and a bit of romance. Based in part on the Moses story, but also original and takes off from that story into different directions. It's family friendly and has been enjoyed by 8 year olds and readers in their 70s. It's 326 pages, trade paperback at $14.95. Released October 4, 2011 from Diminished Media.
I think this is an exciting opportunity for us both. I hope you'll agree. And if you like it, book 2 is out, too.
Bryan Thomas Schmidt is the author of the space opera novels The Worker Prince, a Barnes & Noble Book Clubs Year's Best SF Releases of 2011 Honorable Mention, andThe Returning, the collection The North Star Serial, Part 1, and several short stories featured in anthologies and magazines. He edited the anthology Space Battles: Full Throttle Space Tales #6 for Flying Pen Press, headlined by Mike Resnick. As a freelance editor, he's edited novels and nonfiction. He's also the host of Science Fiction and Fantasy Writer's Chat every Wednesday at 9 pm EST on Twitter under the hashtag #sffwrtcht. A frequent contributor to Adventures In SF Publishing, Grasping For The Wind and SFSignal, he can be found online as @BryanThomasS on Twitter or via his website. Bryan is an affiliate member of the SFWA.


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We are studying iptables for a Computer Systems Security course. We are confused as to what happens when the -s
and -d
arguments are both used in the same rule, such as:
iptables -A OUTPUT -s 10.7.53.2 -d 10.7.53.5 -j REJECT
We know how to block ports coming in and going out as well as ip addresses. However, we are unsure as to what the line above does.
At first we thought it blocks output from one ip address to another, but when we tested this theory we found the assumption was invalid.

subset: commoncrawl


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The IT Infrastructure Library (ITIL) is all the rage these days. Whether it's a data center in rural Denmark, downtown Columbus, Ohio, or one belonging to a federal agency in Washington, D.C., you see the same thing — announcements on the notice board about the latest ITIL meetings and process refinements.
While ITIL is seemingly all-pervasive in IT in general, it hasn't achieved nearly the same level of penetration in storage circles.
"You don't hear much about ITIL in storage, yet they are an excellent mix," said Andrew Reichman, an analyst at Forrester Research. "Storage represents the crown jewels of the enterprise, yet it is plagued by inconsistencies and is not well documented."
He said the ire directed at vendors for their apparent failures may not be entirely justified. These vendors may have produced an excellent piece of equipment, yet they are still plagued by trouble. The reason, he believes, lies in a failure to organize things correctly due to the lack of consistent processes — and that's what ITIL delivers.
"Storage administrators are not able to configure their environments consistently," said Reichman. "ITIL nudges everyone onto the same page and documents it for consistency."
ITIL is a widely accepted approach to IT service management. It is a common misconception that ITIL is a standard. It is not. Organizations don't become "ITIL Certified." Instead, it is a framework of best practices and guidelines. What it provides is a systematic approach to the management of IT service provisioning.
ITIL can be divided into two main aspects:
- Service Support for day-to-day operations. This includes service desk, incident management, problem management, configuration management, change management and release management.
- Service Delivery provides a strategic look at future events so the organization is prepared for potential changes. This encompasses service level management, financial management, capacity management, continuity management and availability management.
While this is all very nice, what does it really have to do with storage? ITIL is all about the delivery of business services in an efficient manner. It's impossible to achieve that without affecting storage.
"ITIL provides us with the guidance and structure to manage the data in a structured process, allowing us to manage exceptions in the environment," says Robert Stroud, CA's IT Service Management and IT Governance Evangelist. "These requirements are identified in service levels and underpinning contracts that link into the overall structure of the business services delivered."
Putting that in more practical terms, he explained that business continuity requirements, for example, can be related more closely to storage elements such as the backup timetable, archiving timeframes and replication. By doing so, the services provided can be measured better, automated and monitored according to specific service levels.
Ronald Potter, a best practices manager at TeamQuest Corp., a capacity/performance management software vendor based in Clear Lake, Iowa, also sees value in the marriage of ITIL and storage. But he says that the problem with storage management today is that it tends to be a standalone process.
"The difficulty ITIL proponents have is the fact that most storage management vendors are marketing their products as storage management silos with touch points to ITIL structure," said Potter. "However, the overarching principles of ITIL would tend to dictate that storage management would be integrated into the Service Delivery and Service Support processes."
Standalone processes, he said, are susceptible to duplication of effort and reduced service quality due to miscommunication or lack of communication. Take the case of ITIL-based capacity management. The capacity folks are responsible for obtaining business requirements, translating them into technology requirements and estimating what will be required in the future across the enterprise. A standalone storage management process, though, would tend to duplicate a number of the steps that the capacity planners perform. Therefore, it would be efficient and less risky if those storage management duties were part of the overall capacity management process.
"Most storage managers are consumed with the day-to-day tasks that are keeping the trains running," said Potter. "ITIL would change that by driving a more efficient use of resources."
Forrester's Reichman concurs. He feels that ITIL-based capacity management would go a long way to lift storage out of one of its time-honored failings — low utilization rates. Similarly, he thinks ITIL's service level management discipline would add value.
"Every manager thinks their systems are mission critical," said Reichman. "ITIL would define the criteria that dictate what data is placed in which tier within the storage hierarchy and how well that data is protected."
Vendors On Board
While CA doesn't specifically sell an "ITIL" product as such, it is integrating this framework into all elements of its software. The goal is to make it easy to link CA storage, security and management software into the ITIL camp and make it easier for organizations to embrace it. In fact, CA has a whole unit that deals directly with ITIL-related matters. It even conducts seminars inside companies to show them the value of ITIL.
Jeanette Cook, service level manager at Idaho National Laboratories (INL) in Idaho Falls, Idaho, attended one of CA's Apollo 13 ITIL simulation role-playing games. These are designed to help organizations drive ITIL awareness by providing real-world scenarios. Teams learn about managing processes more effectively. Cook was so impressed that she brought CA onsite to deliver another such event to 20 staffers. She relates how processes such as incident management tend to become dispersed across multiple divisions and facilities. That makes it hard to see how well, or badly, that process is actually performing. By breaking the members into the various groups responsible for each aspect of incident management and then simulating an incident, they could clearly see where things were breaking down — and the value of having an agreed-upon process to accomplish incident resolution.
"We had an epiphany — we could observe the bottlenecks and take the right actions to tweak the processes to eliminate them," said Cook. "That enabled everyone to see the value of ITIL and buy into the concept of a common language around ITIL."
EMC is another major storage player that appears to be leveraging ITIL as a means of extending its reach. The cornerstones of this strategy are being built around its Smarts and nLayers acquisitions.
EMC Smarts was originally a network discovery, monitoring, and analysis software. It performs sophisticated analysis without the need for any rules because the model reflects the actual environment, so the analysis adapts to changes in the network. Continued development of the technology since its acquisition by EMC has extended this analysis capability beyond networks into storage, servers and applications.
nLayers, on the other hand, is an application dependency mapping product that is now marketed as EMC Smarts Application Discovery Manager (ADM). The most recent version of the software introduced deeper discovery of custom applications and a feature known as the Configuration Management Database (CMDB), which is central to long-term ITIL success.
"The plan for bringing these two technologies together is to lay the foundation for the resource management software business for EMC," said Glenn O'Donnell, EMC principle product marketing manager for Resource Management Software. "The grander vision of EMC is far more than storage hardware, and resource management is key to executing on this vision."
EMC Smarts ADM offers the ability to automatically identify how storage and other technology domains fit into the overall IT picture. It maps the interrelationships, so administrators in all corners of the organization can understand their role in the bigger picture. It automatically discovers the complex labyrinth of application relationships that bind the many infrastructure elements into business services.
Not a Magic Bullet
It would be nice if ITIL required a quick meeting, a couple of definitions and voila, sanity reigned throughout the storage world. But it isn't that simple.
"Far from being a magic bullet, ITIL brings a context for conversation between disparate parties," said Reichman. "Its biggest impact would probably be in change management. The simple fact of having a weekly change board would have instant benefits — stakeholders sitting together and discussing changes and their impacts."
EMC's O'Donnell admits that some in storage are resisting ITIL, though that resistance is dwindling. To his mind, anyone getting in the way of the ITIL juggernaut could be making a serious career goof.
"Deep expertise in storage or any domain will always be necessary, but that expertise must be augmented with a strong awareness of ITIL and IT Service Management," he said. "Without this extra dimension to their skill sets, these experts will be automated into oblivion."


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My friend Jerry Brito is one of the best-connected and most insightful observers of the Internet I know, so when he starts talking up an Internet trend, I pay attention. But after reading his case for Bitcoin, a new digital currency, I remain a skeptic.
The article is worth reading in full, but here's an important part of his case for Bitcoin:
The web has also seen all-purpose digital currencies, from defunct dot-com bubble start-ups Flooz and Beenz, to the slightly more successful e-gold. Unlike cash, however, digital currencies to date have had a third party intermediary monitoring transactions. That's because digital cash is different from physical cash in one very important way: If I hand you a 100 euro bill, I no longer have it. You can't be as sure of that, however, when the cash is just 1's and 0's. So it's been necessary to have a trusted intermediary deduct the amount from the payer's account, and add it to the payee's.
Bitcoin is the first online currency to solve the so-called "double spending" problem without resorting to a third-party intermediary. The key is distributing the database of transactions across a peer-to-peer network. This allows a record to be kept of all transfers, so the same cash can't be spent twice–because it's distributed (a lot like BitTorrent), there's no central authority. This makes digital Bitcoins like cash dollars or euros: Hand them over directly to a payee, and you don't have them anymore, all without the help of a third party.
It's an intriguing concept, but the fundamental question about any currency is whether its value will be stable over time. I'll discuss why this seems dubious in a series of two posts. Today I'll focus on the demand side; tomorrow I'll consider claims that the supply of Bitcoins will be more stable than traditional currencies.
The fundamental demand-side problem is that it's not clear why anyone would want Bitcoins—which are, after all, just entries in a database—in the first place. The obvious retort is that the same objection could be made of any fiat money system. The value of a fiat currency like the dollar is a matter of social convention: it's valuable to me because other people will accept it as payment for stuff I want to buy. Theoretically, if you persuaded everyone that dollars were worthless, this would become a self-fulfilling prophesy. Conversely (the argument goes) all we have to do to make Bitcoins a "real" currency is to persuade some people that it's valuable. And apparently, the creators of Bitoin have already succeeded in this task.
But dollars have at least two advantages over Bitcoins. The obvious difference is that the United States government requires taxes to be paid in US dollars. Since federal taxes represent a significant fraction of most peoples' income, they will continue to demand dollars even if they prefer another currency for day-to-day transactions.
The more subtle difference has to do with network effects and transaction costs. Dollars underpin the American economy in essentially the same way that the TCP/IP protocol underpins the Internet. The original choice of a medium of exchange was arbitrary, but people needed to pick something and once the dollar was chosen it acquired tremendous momentum. Convincing Americans to switch to a currency other than the dollar is roughly as futile as convincing the Internet to switch to a protocol other than TCP/IP, and for the same reasons.
First, people have made tremendous investment—emotional, financial, and technological—in dollars. Millions of vending machines and cash registers are designed to work with dollar-denominated coins and bills. People expect to see dollar-denominated prices in stores, and they have an intuitive sense for what's a reasonable dollar-denominated price for a gallon of gas or a dozen eggs. They have dollar-denominated bank accounts, get dollar-denominated paychecks, and expect to retire on dollar-denominated pensions. It's really hard to persuade Americans to use something else.
Second, currencies are subject to massive network effects. It's much more convenient to carry a currency that 99.9 percent of people accept than the currency that 0.1 percent will take. People who hold obscure currencies have to waste time and money converting it to a more popular currency before they can perform everyday transactions. And people who conduct business in multiple currencies not only have to perform a lot of extra math, they also have to worry about exchange rate risk—the risk that a change in exchange rate will suddenly make a previously profitable business model suddenly unprofitable.
Together these factors make the demand for dollars "sticky." It's hard to see any analogous stickiness in the demand for Bitcoins. As far as I can tell, there are few, if any, markets where Bitcoin transactions are more convenient than traditional fiat currency transactions. I've read some claims that Bitcoin is popular in the drug trade and other illicit markets, where the lack of intermediaries has obvious advantages. It's hard to judge whether these claims are true, or whether such markets are substantial enough to support a new global currency, but I have my doubts.
Illicit uses aside, the demand for Bitcoins seems to be driven by a combination of speculation and ideological enthusiasm. And we have a word for an asset whose value is driven by irrational exuberance: a bubble. I predict this one will pop once the novelty wears off.


text:
We have found, Snickers
Snickers's Microchip # 900164000043515 is registered on SaveThisLife.com
Pet Name: Snickers
Pet Breed: Dachshund/Poodle Mix
Birthday: 0000-00-00 00:00:00
Pet Microchip #: 900164000043515
If you've found Snickers
For the safe return of Snickers, please click on the "Contact Pet Parent" button and fill out the brief form. Once done, we'll notify Snickers's owner through automated calls, emails, and texts. Kindly be prepared to connect, as the owner - holding the microchip ID 900164000043515 - will be in touch to coordinate the reunion with their beloved pet.


text:
Cookie Policy
The website www.brandtap.io uses cookies.
The information presented below aims at providing users with more details on the placing, the use and the management of the cookies used by www.brandtap.io website.
This website uses cookies in order to offer the visitors a better experience when browsing the website, as well as to provide services adapted to the needs and the interests of the visitors.
Cookies offer website owners important feedback on the way visitors browse the websites, so that such websites may be more efficient and more accessible.
What is a "cookie"?
An "internet cookie" (also known as "browser cookie", "HTTP cookie" or simply "cookie") is a file of small dimensions, consisting of letters and numbers which will be stored on the user's computer, mobile device or other equipment from which internet is accessed.
A cookie consists of two parts: name and content (or value). Moreover, the lifetime of a cookie is determined. Technically, only the webserver which sent the cookie may access it again when the user returns to the website associated with such webserver.
The cookies by themselves do not require personal data in order to be used and, in most cases, do not identify internet users.
There are two main categories of cookies. Session cookies are created temporarily in your browser's subfolder while you are visiting a website. Once you leave the website, the session cookie is deleted. Persistent cookie files remain in your browser's subfolder and are activated again once you visit the website that created that particular cookie. A persistent cookie remains in the browser's subfolder for the period set within the cookie's file.
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The lifetime of a cookie may significantly vary, depending on the purpose for which it is placed. As mentioned above, some cookies are used exclusively for a single session (session cookies) and are not kept once the user leaves the website, while other cookies are kept and reused each time the user comes back to the respective website (persistent cookies). However, the cookies may be deleted by a user at any time by means of browser settings.
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Just in time for Heart Health Month (February), Auntie Anne's Pretzels is responding to Americans' craving for more whole grains by introducing a new hand-rolled soft pretzel to its already deep rotation of gourmet freshly-baked favorites. Today, the 1,325-unit chain will launch the Honey Whole Grain Pretzel at its stores nationwide.
The Honey Whole Grain Pretzel, which packs a hint of honey sweetness and real whole grain dough, boasts one daily serving of whole grains, six grams of fiber, and just 300 calories. It has also been labeled with the Whole Grains Council stamp of approval because it contains 67 grams or more of whole grains per serving. Like all pretzels at Auntie Anne's, the Honey Whole Grain Pretzel is hand-rolled and freshly baked all day long. The average price point will be $2.79.
"The research and development teams at Auntie Anne's have worked endlessly to create this pretzel flavor that not only meets the lifestyle needs of consumers desiring a freshly-baked, better-for-you snack option, but one that also has the signature, indulgent taste our guests have come to expect from Auntie Anne's," says Heather Neary, Auntie Anne's chief marketing officer.
To introduce the Honey Whole Grain Pretzel to hungry guests, Auntie Anne's will host four Sampling Saturdays events at its stores nationwide. Not only will guests have an opportunity to get a taste of the new Honey Whole Grain Pretzel through a free bite-sized sample, but they'll also be given several ways to enter a sweepstakes for a chance to win a $25,000 cash prize and instant prizes.
During the Sampling Saturdays taking place on January 19, February 2, February 16, and March 9, guests can scan a QR code, text a designated keyword, or get an eDecoder card that reveals an instant in-store offer. Until March 31, guests can also enter the sweepstakes online and play a pretzel rolling and twisting game for a chance to win the all-new Apple iPad mini, Coca‑Cola beverages for a year, or a $25 Visa gift card. Entering the sweepstakes can also be accomplished by viewing digital banner ads or blog posts as part of a robust online advertising plan Auntie Anne's is launching in conjunction with its partner, ePrize, a digital engagement agency specializing in mobile, social, and web campaigns.
From January through April 2012, Auntie Anne's tested the Honey Whole Grain Pretzel at 32 franchised store locations in Seattle, Washington, Indianapolis, Indiana and in select Texas, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Maryland, and Delaware locations. The product test was met with strong customer reviews and consumer sales.
In recent years, the American palate has become much more receptive to the consumption of whole grains, and Auntie Anne's is proactive in responding to the shift. Auntie Anne's fulltime core pretzel lineup includes flavors ranging from Original and Cinnamon Sugar to Almond, Sour Cream and Onion, and Garlic. For shoppers and travelers on the go, the product line also features Stix, Nuggets, Pretzel Dogs, and signature frozen drinks, as well as numerous sauces for dipping.
In addition to the new product launch, 2013 will prove special for Lancaster, Pennsylvania-based Auntie Anne's as the brand celebrates its 25-year birthday. Since the company's humble inception in 1988, Auntie Anne's has experienced 23 years of positive sales, thus proving that the soft economy is no problem for the soft pretzel giant.


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At every stage of life, there are circumstances that can negatively affect your mental health. But you can help ward off depression by understanding how these common experiences contribute to it. Here's what to know about preventing depression, depending on your age:
Young adulthood is a time of tremendous change. So it might not be a surprise that this age group frequently struggles with symptoms of depression. Living away from home for the first time can be a major stressor. For those in college, there are constant social and academic pressures.
To handle all that change:
Use mindfulness-based stress reduction techniques, like a body scan (pay attention to your body's sensations from head to toe).
Watch your intake of caffeine, which can harm your sleep and mental health.
Attend group cognitive behavioral therapy to help you boost your confidence, manage stress, and face your fears.
From your mid-20s through your 30s, you're often building a career, navigating the dating world, deciding whether to start a family, and taking care of young children. This can make you feel like your time is spread thin.
To stay energized:
Eat nutritious meals, making sure to get enough fiber and water, which helps keep your mood stable.
Don't smoke, and if you drink, practice moderation—the chemicals in tobacco and alcohol can contribute to depression.
Once you reach middle age, you may find yourself with a lot of emotional and financial responsibility. You might need to care for aging parents and growing children. Women in this age group are dealing with menopause, while men often struggle to create strong social networks.
To keep your stress levels down:
Practice mind-body techniques, such as meditation, massage, and journaling.
Accept help from others.
Add exercise to your to-do list and schedule a time for it.
Risk factors for depression in older adults include losing a loved one, being diagnosed with a medical condition like cancer, and not getting good sleep. The stress of caregiving can also take a toll. As you age, you're more likely to struggle with social isolation, especially if you outlive many in your peer group.
To feel as good as possible:
Nurture bonds with friends and family.
Stay physically active.
Get enough sleep per night (aim for 7 to 9 hours).
Find activities you enjoy and stick with them.


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The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. reported net sales for its third quarter ended March 31, 2014 of $2.55 billion, an 11% increase compared with $2.29 billion in the prior-year quarter. Excluding the impact of foreign currency translation, net sales increased 12%. The company reported a 270 basis-point increase in operating margin, and net earnings for the quarter rose 19% to $213.2 million, compared with $178.8 million last year. Diluted net earnings per common share rose 20% to $.54, compared with $.45 reported in the prior year.
Fabrizio Freda, The Estée Lauder Companies' president and CEO, said, "Our excellent results this quarter reflect our multiple engines of growth across product categories, countries and channels, enabling us to achieve strong local currency sales growth in every geographic region. Sales came in higher than our expectations and we again exceeded our earnings per share forecast. These results were driven by the broad global demand for our diverse prestige beauty brands, the strength of our emerging markets, accelerated growth in certain developed markets and solid progress in skin care."
"Our outlook for the balance of the year remains positive and we expect to achieve our financial objectives," Freda also noted. "We continue to forecast local currency sales growth of 6–7%, and we are raising our earnings per share guidance to $2.86–2.90, before charges and the effect of potential accelerated sales orders relating to our SMI go-live in July 2014. Driving this performance will be new and recent product offerings across categories, particularly in skin care and makeup. For the remainder of the fiscal year we also expect our growth will continue to be fueled by our success in high-growth channels and emerging markets, while enhancing our local relevance. Importantly, our mid-size brands continue to grow faster than the average, increasing their contribution to the company's sales and profitability, while strengthening our portfolio. We are flexible in our investment spending, targeting opportunities that provide the highest returns, promote demand for our brands and foster global growth. At the same time, we are improving operating leverage and eliminating non-value added costs to further improve operating margins and profitability."
In the skin care category, which is a strategic priority for The Estée Lauder Companies and is well positioned to capitalize on its strong pipeline of innovative products, the company saw net sales of $1.13 billion for the quarter, a 12% reported basis increase and 13% local currency increase over the same time period in 2013. The company gained share during the quarter in this category in certain countries where its products are sold, and operating income increased sharply, including the shift, primarily reflecting higher-margin product launches from certain of the company's heritage brands, as well as increased results from higher-end prestige skin care products.
Net sales in makeup for the quarter were $1.01 billion, up 10% on a reported basis and up 11% in local currency. Higher makeup sales primarily reflected strong growth from the company's makeup artist brands and from recent launches, such as Pure Color Envy Sculpting Lipstick from Estée Lauder and All About Shadow from Clinique. Sales from makeup artist brands benefited from new product offerings, as well as expanded distribution in line with the company's retail store strategy. The increase in makeup operating income primarily reflected improved performance from the company's makeup artist brands due to the higher sales, and certain heritage brands.
In fragrance, strong sales growth (up 16% reported and in local currency, to $270.5 million for the quarter) came from luxury brands Tom Ford and Jo Malone. Sales gains were also generated from the recent launches of Estée Lauder Modern Muse, Tory Burch and the Michael Kors Fragrance Collection. Fragrance operating loss increased, due to the Venezuela remeasurement charge. Operating results also reflected higher net sales from recent launches, partially offset by higher investment spending.
Net sales for hair care were $120.8 million, up 4% reported and 5% in local currency. Hair care net sales growth was primarily driven by Aveda, reflecting gains in the salon channel and the continued success of its Dry Remedy and Damage Remedy franchises. Sales increased at Bumble and bumble, primarily due to higher sales to specialty multi-brand retailers. Ojon sales decreased, primarily due to its exit from the direct response television channel. The category growth also benefited from expanded global distribution, in particular to specialty-multi brand retailers for Bumble and bumble and to salons and travel retail for Aveda. Hair care operating income increased more than 100%, primarily reflecting higher net sales driven by expanded global distribution and new product launches, as well as lower investment spending.
In the Americas, net sales for the quarter were $1.07 billion, up 8% on a reported basis and up 10% in local currency. Net sales in the U.S. increased, reflecting growth from the company's makeup artist and luxury brands and certain heritage brands. Sales also increased in Latin America and Canada, and sales of the company's online business grew double digits. Operating income in the Americas rose, reflecting the increased sales and a more measured approach to spending. Additionally, operating income in the region reflects the charge of $38.3 million in the current-year period to remeasure net monetary assets in Venezuela.
Net sales were $959.4 million in the Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) region, up 13% reported and 12% local currency. In constant currency, net sales increased in each major product category and in virtually all countries in the region, and the company estimates that it continued to outperform prestige beauty in many markets. The net sales increase was led by double-digit growth in a number of areas, including the United Kingdom, Germany, Switzerland, Turkey, France and Russia. Net sales growth in Switzerland and France were due, in part, to the accelerated retailer orders, as previously discussed. Certain European countries continued to experience soft retail environments. In travel retail, sales increased high-single digits, primarily reflecting higher sales from the company's luxury brands, an increase in global airline passenger traffic and expanded distribution.Operating income increased, as higher results from the United Kingdom, Switzerland, France and Russia were partially offset by lower operating results in Spain and certain Eastern European countries.
The Asia/Pacific region saw the quarter's net sales rise 14% reported and 18% in local currency to $518.4 million. Constant currency net sales increased in the majority of countries in the region. The strongest growth was generated in China, Japan, Hong Kong, Taiwan and Australia. The sales increase in China, Hong Kong and Taiwan reflect the shift in retailer orders, as previously discussed. Sales were lower in Thailand, Korea and the Philippines, but the company estimates that it gained share in certain countries within its points of distribution during the quarter. In Asia/Pacific, operating income increased, led by China, Japan, Korea and Taiwan. Results in China and Taiwan primarily reflect the impact from the accelerated retailer orders. Lower operating results were posted in Hong Kong and the Philippines.
For its outlook for the full fiscal 2014 year, the Estée Lauder Companies expects global prestige beauty to grow approximately 3–4%, tempered by continued softness in certain European countries and Korea, and slower near-term growth in China and the United States. The company also expects to further improve its gross and operating margins by leveraging its strong sales growth and continuing to reduce non-value-added costs. Additionally, net sales are forecasted to grow between 6–7% in constant currency, and foreign currency translation is expected to negatively impact sales by approximately 1% versus the prior-year period.
View more details on the Q3 2014 fiscal report from The Estée Lauder Companies here.


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Remembering Diplomats on Memorial Day
"Remembering the Diplomats on Memorial Day," a piece I wrote last year. This is dedicated to the Foreign Service officers we lost in the past year – Ambassador Chris Stevens, Sean Smith, and Anne Smedinghoff. This year, please remember the diplomats and all civilians who serve their country on the front lines of freedom.


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Ford dropped out of the battle once they proved their point at Le Mans, and Porsche was very ready to take up the battle.
As they developed their racing technologies, they looked into ways they could be adapted to the competition versions of the 911.
With the great success of their Porsche Carrera RSR in 1973, they saw that the next logical step was to turbo-charge it.
Prismacolor pencils and Varsol on gray archival stock
19"x 16" (48.3cm x 40.6cm) © Paul Chenard 2013
Born from this approach, the 1974 Carrera RSR Turbo was a formidable monster. Turbo-charging made it powerful, but turbo-lag made it scary.
Drivers like Herbert Müller and Gijs van Lennep managed to tame it and it achieved measured success, but it became a major development tool to Porsche's successful 934 and it's all-conquering 935.


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- One-off Impairments Impact Bottom Line While Passenger Revenues Remain Stable
The core airline business achieved steady passenger revenues of US$ 4.9 billion and 79% load factors while carrying a record 18.5 million passengers. Available seat kilometres (ASKs) increased by 9% to 113.9 billion. Yields fell 8% amid market capacity pressures and the tough global economic climate, but this was partially offset by an 11% reduction in unit costs.
Total impairments of US$ 1.9 billion included a US$ 1.06 billion charge on aircraft, reflecting lower market values and the early phase out of certain aircraft types. There was also a US$ 808 million charge on certain assets and financial exposures to equity partners, mainly related to Alitalia and airberlin.
Legacy fuel hedging contracts also had a negative bearing on performance in 2016, though this exposure is expected to have less of a financial impact during 2017.
A slowdown in the cargo market put increased pressure on cargo revenues and yields, and the airline saw a slight improvement in freight carried at 595,519 tonnes for the 12-month period.
H.E. Mohamed Mubarak Fadhel Al Mazrouei, Chairman of the Board of the Etihad Aviation Group, said: "A culmination of factors contributed to the disappointing results for 2016. The Board and executive team have been working since last year to address the issues and challenges through a comprehensive strategic review aimed at driving improved performance across the group, which includes a full review of our airline equity partnership strategy.
"The record passenger numbers in 2016 affirm Etihad's role as a significant economic enabler for Abu Dhabi, and our airline business continues to support Abu Dhabi's vision to develop tourism, grow commerce and strengthen links to key regional and international markets."
Ray Gammell, Interim Group Chief Executive Officer, explained: "We are focused on maintaining the solid performance of our core airline business – operationally and financially – even amid difficult market headwinds. At the same time, we continue to implement changes across the group as part of the comprehensive strategic review, with a focus on improving revenues and reducing costs.
"During 2016, the airline commenced a Right Size & Shape programme that generated total overhead savings of 4% through headcount reductions and other measures by the end of the year, even as capacity and total passenger number increased.
"This year is just as challenging for the global aviation industry and the ever-evolving competitive environment is likely to impact overall performance in 2017. However, our airline business remains strong and class-leading, and as an aviation group, we are in a stronger position."
Peter Baumgartner, Chief Executive Officer of Etihad Airways, added: "We are in an industry characterised by overcapacity, declining market sizes on key routes, and changing customer behaviour as a weak global economy affects spending appetite.
"Our answer to these challenges is innovation and reinvention, and this gives Etihad Airways a competitive edge as we seek to leverage opportunities offered to us by a changing environment.
"Operationally, we performed well in 2016. We maintained load factor levels even as we increased capacity. Yields were under pressure in all cabins, with Business Class impacted particularly as corporate travel policies continued to encourage flyers to downgrade to Economy.
"Our fuel hedging positions, which helped manage fuel spend during the oil price boom, yet significantly impacted our cost base last year, will taper during 2017. We are also seeing promising improvements in the contribution made by our ancillary revenue strategies, and we expect those to offset some of the yield declines."


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About Kivlin Eye Clinic
Welcome to Kivlin Eye Clinic
The Kivlin Eye Clinic team strives to provide the best in optometry services. We invite you to browse our website to learn more about our optometry services and join our patient family by scheduling an eye exam appointment at our Menomonie office. Kivlin Eye Clinic is a full service eye and vision care provider, accepting eye emergencies and scheduled appointments.
Patients throughout the Menomonie area come to Kivlin Eye Clinic because they know they will receive the personal attention and professional care that is our foundation.
Our team is dedicated to keeping our patients comfortable and knowledgeable. We will explain every exam and procedure and answer our patients' questions. We also offer vision financing options and will work with vision insurance providers to ensure good eye health and vision care for all our patients.
Our Eye Care Services
Comprehensive Eye Exams
From updating your eyeglasses prescription to detection and treatment of eye diseases, comprehensive eye exams are important for continued visual health.
Contact Lens Exams
During a contact lens exam, your eye doctor will check if you are a good candidate for contacts and find the best type of contacts for your needs..
Dry Eyes
Do you have dry, itchy, gritty-feeling eyes? Dry eye syndrome is a very common condition. We offer dry eye treatments at our eye care clinic.
Eye emergencies such as severe pain in the eye, or foreign objects puncturing the eye require immediate attention. Contact us immediately.
Eye diseases such as glaucoma and macular degeneration can cause severe loss of vision if not diagnosed and treated early. Our eye care team can help.
LASIK and refractive surgery are great ways to say goodbye to contacts and glasses for good. Find out if you're a good candidate.
If cataracts go untreated, they can cause total blindness in the affected eye. We can help with co-management of your cataract removal surgery.
Over 50% of people living with glaucoma don't know they have the disease as it shows no symptoms. Early detection and treatment can prevent blindness.
Macular degeneration can cause severe central vision loss if not detected and treated early on. We can help preserve your vision.
Astigmatism can cause vision problems such as blurred or double vision at all distances. Find out what you can do to correct astigmatism and see your best.
The ups and downs of diabetes can be difficult to navigate. How can diabetes affect your eyes? How can you and your eye doctor keep them healthy?
Presbyopia is a normal part of aging. If you're past 40 and notice you can't read up close, our eye doctors may be able to help.
While vision can change drastically in the senior years, these changes shouldn't have to impair one's quality of life. The earlier these problems are detected and treated, the more likely proper eye care can help you retain good vision.
Scleral lenses are a great option for those with severe dry eye or abnormally-shaped corneas. Is this comfortable alternative to traditional contacts right for you?
InfantSEE is a program that provides free comprehensive eye exams to infants 6-12 months old, regardless of a family's financial status.
Retinal imaging stands as a beacon of preventive eye care, illuminating the path to early detection of various eye conditions long before they pose a significant threat to your vision.
Eyeglasses & Frames
Designer Frames
Our extensive optical section offers a wide variety of eyeglass frames in every style, material & design. Come visit us today to see for yourself!
Our expert optical team can find just the right pair of glasses for you to be confident and look your best.
Lens coatings improve visual comfort, make it easier to clean your glasses and ensure your lenses last longer. Coatings include anti-scratch, anti-reflective, photochromatic and UV / blue light filters.
Contact Lenses
Contact Lens Fitting
We offer a wide range of contact lens options from dailies, monthly to multifocal contact lenses for crystal clear vision and superior comfort.
During a contact lens exam, your eye doctor will check if you are a good candidate for contacts and find the best type of contacts for your needs.
50% Off Kids Frames + Adults BOGO 50% Off
*Offer eligible for children 18 years old and younger. Requires purchase of a complete prescription pair, including frame and lenses. **Requires purchase of a complete prescription pair, including frame and lenses. Discount applied to complete pair of equal or lesser value.
Does not include sunglass frames, Barton Perreira, Cartier, Cazal, Chanel, Cutler and Gross, Dior, Dita Lancier, Fendi, Gucci, ic!Berlin, l.a. Eyeworks, Maui Jim, Mykita, Nifties, Oakley, Oliver Peoples, Persol, Ray-Ban, Robert Marc, Salt, Salvatore Ferragamo, Skaga, Silhouette, Tom Ford, WOOW, accessories, contact lenses, or medical procedures. Cannot be combined with any other discounts, promotions, or insurance plans. Not valid on previous orders. Other restrictions may apply. See practice for full details. Offer valid 7/1/24-9/15/24. 24AEG-777930


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Always start with a lip scrub to remove dry skin. This prevents your lipstick from looking patchy or flaky later on. You can even make your own scrub. Just mix sugar and honey in a bowl, then rub it into your lips. Finish by wiping it off with a dry cloth.
The dead skin is gone! Now, it's time to add some moisture. Our long-time favourite, Tender Care, is great to get your lips back in tip top shape. Many beauty experts also swear by facial oil – so you can always try the organically sourced EcoBeauty Facial Oil for naturally soft lips.
Once your lips are prepped to perfection, you'll want to lay the groundwork for your colour. A lip primer is great to prevent fading and bleeding, and to make your lipstick last longer.
The final step is to apply the lip colour itself. Whether it be a lipstick, a lip tint or lip gloss, it's always a good idea to start with a lip liner in the same shade. This will give you a more even and long-lasting colour. The result? Smashing lips that look great all day long!
Not sure which colour to choose? Read Find the Perfect Lipstick Shade For You.


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very pleasant hygienist!
We are welcoming New Patients. We want to take care of your smile!COVID19
protocols are in place.
Visit our blog to find out about the changes we
have made for your safety and ours.
Please let us know if you have any questions.
New Protocol For Appointments


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Local Texas GOP rejects outing vice chair over his faith
FORT WORTH, Texas (AP) - Republicans in one of the most populous counties in Texas voted Thursday to keep a Muslim doctor as their party vice chairman following infighting over some members' claims about his beliefs.
The executive committee of the Tarrant County Republican Party voted 139-49 to reject the effort to purge Shahid Shafi, a surgeon and City Council member in suburban Fort Worth.
"This vote reaffirms the commitment by a majority of Tarrant County Republicans to our core values and moral compass, a demonstration of our allegiance to the Texas Republican Party Platform and the Constitutions of the United States and Texas, which strictly prohibit religious and racial discrimination of any kind," Tarrant County Republican Party Chair Darl Easton said in a written statement.
"While tonight's vote brings an end to this unfortunate episode, it also demonstrates we are a party that respects the right of those who disagree on an issue to have a seat at the table and their voices heard," according to the statement. "Religious liberty won tonight and while that makes a great day for the Republican Party of Tarrant County, that victory also serves notice that we have much work to do unifying our party."
The Fort Worth Star-Telegram reported at least one precinct chair, Arlington Republican Dale Attebery, was said have to tossed his ID at the lecturn after the vote. Easton said he accepted that as Attebery's resignation.
Shafi told reporters that his faith in Tarrant County Republicans had been reaffirmed.
"As we struggled through the last few months, it would have been easy for me to quit. But I stayed on to fight," he said. "We were fighting for religious freedom ... and today we have come out victorious."
The Thursday vote result took a stand "against bigotry of all kinds," he said. "Our union is a little more perfect today."
A party precinct chairwoman, Dorrie O'Brien, had led the call to oust Shafi on claims that he may be more loyal to Islamic law or connected to a terrorist group. Shafi denied both claims and other Republicans have called them bigoted.
"Religious freedom is at the core of who we are as a nation and state," Gov. Greg Abbott said in a statement Wednesday, "and attacks on Dr. Shafi because of his faith are contrary to this guiding principle."
Other top Republicans, such as U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz and Land Commissioner George P. Bush, also had condemned the effort to oust him.
Cruz tweeted at one point that discriminating against Shafi because of his religion was "wrong." The First Amendment protects religious liberty for every faith, Cruz said on Twitter.
Former Tarrant County GOP leader William Busby earlier told the Fort Worth Star-Telegram that some large corporate donors "don't want to be associated with a party that's going in the direction of excluding people based upon their religious beliefs."
Shafi is one of two party vice chairmen and has worked for the party for about 10 years, including as a delegate to the state party convention. He's serving a two-year term as vice chairman and his election in July drew one lone dissenting vote among the approximately 250 precinct chairmen who voted that day. That lone dissenter was O'Brien.
A handful of others have joined her in opposing Shafi. O'Brien did not respond to a request for comment by The Associated Press.
Her call to reconsider Shafi's appointment gained traction with some party members after Tarrant County turned blue in the U.S. Senate race in November.
The State Republican Executive Committee in Austin responded to the move by passing a resolution recently that stressed Republican members across Texas have the "freedom to practice all faiths."
"I heard from a few people that if Shafi is removed they'll resign," said Brian Bledsoe, a Tarrant County GOP precinct chairman. "I don't know how serious they were about it, though. Regardless of the outcome, hopefully this Thursday will be the end of all of this."


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Advanced Search
Special Needs | Feature
Visual and sonic aids can help students with language disorders improve their reading, writing and speaking.
A video from VizZle walks educators through the process of creating an activity that teaches phonics.
Mobile devices can help students who have trouble communicating orally by allowing them to converse using pictures and the written word (what's known as augmentative and alternative communication, or AAC). Any number of apps can facilitate AAC, but some of them are particularly well-suited for helping students with language disorders learn how to read and how to effectively express themselves in writing. Below, we review some exciting new features in six apps that teach these skills.
VizZle's portal called Teach lets you organize, customize and launch interactive instructional academic lessons on the VizZle Player (free in the App Store). Lessons can then be used on PCs, Macs, touchscreens, interactive whiteboards and within Player apps for Android tablets and iPads. Families, school staff and therapists who subscribe can share lessons and data regarding student progress. (Yearly rates start at less than $500.) An extensive shared library contains educator-approved audio, video, photos and line drawings that you can customize with appropriate behavioral supports to make it fun for students. These resources cover social skills lessons in addition to an array of academic subjects, many of which are aligned with the Common Core. The app has a visual schedule built in, with a timer in the corner to show how much time is left. Students can track their progress with game boards that list their scores.
A new set of materials for teaching reading includes activities that break words down into letter and sound pairings, while also showing how to combine those sounds to form words. Additional activities reinforce word comprehension. Teachers can add a quiz to check that the student understands; VizZle allows you to layer phonics, pop-ups and quizzes in whatever way works best for the child. The Phonics+ template is also great for teaching spelling or vocabulary words. You can use any list, from basic CVC words to SAT vocabulary, and set the lessons up to emphasize meaning, spelling or both.
Other new features include switch accessibility, with either automatic or two-step switch scanning; a redesign of the Build-a-Book application that allows you to record yourself reading a book so your student can listen and read at any time; and bigger audio and video buttons.
Crack the Books
Crack the Books is a standards-based, core curriculum-aligned digital book series, with both interactive elements and universal design accessibility features. Designed for students at all ability levels, the interactive books in the series can be adjusted for reading level, from first grade to eighth grade, so students in a class can experience the same content while reading at their ability level. These books include beautiful photographs; video footage; interesting facts; animations and images; and interactive charts, tables and globes. Comprehension supports are built into the text, along with pop-up definitions for associated vocabulary. Users can adjust print size and customize voice-over options within the app to accommodate students with print disabilities or other limitations.
Currently, three books in the series include teacher resources with lesson plans, worksheets, activities and study guides. These titles, which cost $9.99 each, are Pines to Vines (about forests), Sea Shores to Sea Floors (about oceans) and Blades (about grasslands). Other books (available without the teacher resources) include Aquatic Earth, Cycles of Earth and Parched Planet (about deserts).
Designed as an AAC for students who have trouble with oral language, AutisMate ($149.99 in the App Store) is an iPad app that offers a variety of visual supports, including visual scenes, visual schedules, video modeling, visual social stories and grid-based AAC. The app supports vocabularies ranging from simple to complex. While the visual schedules, video modeling and visual stories are all wonderful, we focus on communication skills, which are best improved using the Smart Scenes and Sentence Builder functions.
Sentence Builder uses grid displays that organize items by topics or by categories (such as people, places or animals); events and activities (such as birthday party, opening presents or cooking dinner) or speech categories (such as nouns, verbs and locations). Users can build sentences using these grids; switching back and forth between different grids is easy. For younger kids, or those who find the grid displays confusing, AutisMate has Smart Scenes (visual scenes) where teachers or parents can take pictures of a child's environment and place labels within those scenes. Scenes can be shared via iTunes and e-mail. AutisMate is in the process of building an extensive crowdsourced content library with premade scenes that will be stored in the cloud so users will be able to sync data across multiple devices.
In addition, AutisMate now offers a predictive keyboard and text-to-speech capabilities; new symbols are easy to learn because the app pairs the symbols used in Sentence Builder with the predicted word.
Avaz ($99.99 in the App Store) is an iPad app for students who struggle to speak. It comes with 15,000 Symbolstix picture symbols and high-quality voice synthesis to help users create messages that can be read aloud or sent to others via e-mail, Facebook or Twitter. The picture symbols are color-coded and organized into linguistic categories. A user can choose from more than 80 topics sets, and a Core Words set is also available. Avaz has some attention-grabbing features to help the user understand what they are doing, including icons that grow and then shrink in size when you tap on them. The app can also be set to say the selected word aloud before you move into the communication space.
Users can back up or synchronize vocabulary content on Dropbox. A search feature makes it easy to explore vocabulary words. By surrounding words with "conversation starters," users can quickly construct natural-sounding sentences; this also helps them learn how to effectively use such constructions.
Parents, teachers and clinicians can customize the app in a variety of ways by adding their own pictures to the picture symbol library, removing distracting content, controlling the picture grid size, controlling the speech output and using a high-contrast mode for students with poor vision. It comes with seven voices from Acapela, or you can record your own voice; you can even customize the pronunciation of unusual words. Avaz tracks therapy sessions automatically, and can be set to send the data to a clinician or teacher for later review.
An integrated picture and keyboard mode allows students who are ready to transition to text to alternate between the two modes seamlessly. Avaz's keyboard has support for saving and loading words and phrases, a Quick Response bar for frequently used messages and a picture-assisted text prediction capability for sight readers.
Clicker Sentences and Clicker Docs
When students are ready to move from learning vocabulary to writing sentences, Clicker Sentences ($28.99 in the App Store) and Clicker Docs ($30.99 in the App Store) can enable them to produce work they can be proud of while learning the key skills necessary for independent writing.
Clicker Sentences allows clinicians, parents or teachers to create sentence-building activities using grids that contain the words required to build a sentence. Students tap words in the grid (a customized keyboard) to build sentences in the simple word processor, then hear each sentence automatically spoken aloud as they complete it, helping them identify any mistakes and make corrections. As the app reads the sentence, it highlights the currently spoken words by changing fonts, background color or text colors, depending on the user's preference. Learners can hear words before they write them to help them find the word they want.
The app provides support for students at a range of levels. For example, in the early phases of learning to write sentences, students can see a completed sentence as a model that they can then copy. Later, the model sentence can be displayed in a pop-up that must be closed before they can continue. Other options include an auditory model that requires the student to listen before writing and a guided-order activity for reinforcing left-to-right sentence construction in English. Users can add a picture to each sentence from a photo library or straight from the iPad camera.
The final product can be e-mailed or sent to any AirPrint compatible printer. A professionally curated learning resource bank offers a wide range of topic-specific Sentence Sets created by the curriculum team at the LearningGrids site.
Clicker Docs has many of the same features, but it is completely text-based. It includes a word predictor that suggests age-appropriate vocabulary based on the already-written part of the sentence, as well as a spell-checking functionality. Word Banks provide tabbed vocabulary support for a variety of topics. All of these features are completely speech supported. Teachers, clinicians and parents can customize the speed and voice of the text-to-speech, the word predictor level and the contrast color schemes. Clicker Docs allows users to share Word Banks and documents across using Dropbox.
Abilipad ($19.99 in the App Store) is an iPad app for taking notes, creating lesson plans, importing photos and designing customized keyboards. An integrated filing system allows user to create folders to manage their notepads and keyboards. You can create customized keyboard layouts by assigning a letter, word, sentence or picture to each key, as well as an audio recording that plays when the key is pressed. The user can select the font and letter size displayed on the keyboard and can color-code each key. The keyboards are switch accessible.
The Adaptive Notepad provides a distraction-free writing space where you can compose messages. You can also add stock images or your own pictures into your notes. The app also includes a spell-checker and word prediction capabilities to help users with word-retrieval challenges. Users can set the font, size and color of the text as well as the background color of their notes. The Adaptive Notepad allows users to use any keyboard they wish.
Abilipad gives students the ability to read letters, words or sentences in their messages with text-to-speech as they compose using one of the 20 Acapela voices. The speaking rate is adjustable, and the words are highlighted as they are spoken.
The Adaptive Notepad lets you add or duplicate pages, reorder them, and organize them into folders. You can e-mail text and images from a note share Abilipad. An extensive library lets you share keyboards, lessons and activities from others, so you don't have to reinvent the wheel.
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NASA's Robonaut 2 (R2) began operations on the International Space Station (ISS) by greeting Commander Dan Burbank with the first "man-robot" handshake in space.
R2 is a telepresence droid and can be controlled either from Earth or from the ISS. R2 boasts 38 PowerPC processors and over 350 sensors.
Here is a video:
Posted under research, technology, telepresence
This post was written by admin on February 22, 2012


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Thursday, February 24, 2011
A small hedge fund manager's lament
There is only one exception to this - and this exception proves the rule: there are a few small companies that have a dominant (often family) shareholder where the (family) shareholder won't or can't sell for personal/legal/structural reasons. Some of these companies might be reasonable value because the PE firms have not had a look in. Indeed, we have about 10 percent of the fund invested in companies in France that fit this exception. One of our most profitable positions has been a German company with a dominant (and immobile) family shareholder.
Private equity funds are also the biggest competitors to other private equity funds. All this competition means that private equity shops are doing worse and worse deals. Its got to the point where PE funds buy fake companies (see Carlyle with China Forestry and I suspect others).
Running a small hedge fund, I would usually want to buy small caps on which I had done superior analysis. Alas, when I look at small caps - even medium caps I keep finding expensive, dodgy and well promoted stocks. Small caps are a land of shorts. The good stuff - and then the less good stuff left behind - has been picked over by numerous PE shops.
I do serious research. I will pay someone to stake out a factory in China and count the trucks going in and out. I talk to suppliers and customers. And by and large almost all of that research is no good for finding longs. You see the PE shops have more resources than me - and when they find something even half way good they issue low yield debt and buy it. The low yield debt that is everywhere is my competition - and I hate competing with someone whose capital costs less than a third of the returns I target. The low yields that PE funds can issue debt have now resulted in low ex-ante returns for small cap investors.
Large caps by contrast are surprisingly inexpensive (however most of them have warts).
For instance Google - and I am just picking Google - has a PE ratio below 20 when you net the cash out - and has an enormous tailwind. At the moment there are 3.4 billion cell phones in the world and only about 100 million connect intensely to the internet. Most of those are iPhones. In five years time Android phones with the capabilities of a current iPhone 4 will retail below $100 - possibly far below $100. The dumb phone will cease to exist - and almost all phones will connect to the internet. Google will dominate that ecosystem. The tailwind is enormous. Sure Google faces headwinds too (their search quality is being eroded by spam and Facebook is stealing internet time and even search loyalty). But in a different environment you might say Google was cheap.
Microsoft is under 12 times historic earnings - and far less than that if you net out cash. And sure it is problematic (I am writing this on a linux computer and in a few years the dominant computing device will be a phone - probably an Android phone). But the cash flows look stable enough for now. And the biggest mobile phone company in the world has just agreed to distribute their operating system.
Vodafone is at a PE well under 10 times - but it has a history where it has never failed to disappoint. When I told a UK fund manager that my biggest position is Vodafone he looked at me with pity. (It was of course their biggest position a decade ago - and what they were really feeling was self-pity.)
Now these are not historically stretched valuations - but they are not outright bargains either. They are however a bargain compared to long term government bonds and they are absolutely a bargain compared to the average small cap.
I don't particularly want to express a view on inflation or deflation. Suffice to say we have seen a movie which had an unbelievably brutal deflation. That was Japan. Ben Bernanke has also seen that movie - and he has determined that it will not happen in America. He will expand money supply to stop it. A deliberate money supply expansion on this scale in response to a huge deflationary threat is an experiment and we do not know the outcome. It could fail (you know the saying - you can lead a horse to water but you can't make him drink). It could succeed beautifully producing 4 percent inflation and getting the economy out of the rut. Ben Bernanke said on 60 Minutes that he was "100 percent" sure that he could control inflation at the end of it. I need to stand outside a factory and count trucks before I am 100 percent sure the trucks are not coming - but unless I have a method of direct verification I am not 100 percent sure of anything much. Bernanke is a little too certain. Whatever: put a weighted probability on inflation or deflation and you would conclude that long-dated government debt - or a deflation bet - is a very risky bet. (It may wind up ex-post being a good bet - it may wind up being a terrible bet. Whatever - right now it is a risky bet.)
Large cap equities scare me far less. At least the starting valuation is lower.
Warren Buffett wrote an editorial in the New York Times on 16 October 2008 suggesting that people buy American equities. He had already spent all of his non-Berkshire personal account - so most of his purchases were made with the S&P above 1000. Warren is not stupid and his return expectations were at least 7 percent per annum. (He is after all Warren Buffett and he is rather good at this stuff. Better than me or any of my readers.)
Two years have passed - dividends have been a couple of percent per annum - so the current equivalent level S&P level (allowing Buffett's 7 percent in the form of capital appreciation) is about 1100. The S&P is currently about 1300. Today you are buying 20 percent more expensive than Buffett suggested. (That does not sound like a bubble to me.)
For most of Buffett's purchases buying 20 percent more expensive than Warren turned out just fine. And I suspect it would turn out just fine now too.
So here we are in a strange world where large caps are not bargains - but they are, by and large, not frighteningly expensive. If you were to buy a diversified pile of American large caps and sit back in a decade you would probably be OK - indeed better than OK. But small caps - the area on which my expertise would normally be most productively targeted - are frighteningly expensive - and the market is riddled with stock-promotes and outright frauds.
So - with exceptions such as my French and German "family stocks" we are mostly long large caps (eg Vodafone, Google) and short small caps (about 50 names, mostly frauds).
Alas I cannot analyse Google with any degree of precision. A five year earnings estimate made by anyone at Bronte would be worthless. I have no idea how many smart phones will be Android tied into Google and how many will be Nokia/Microsoft tied into Bing. I have no idea how much damage Facebook or even Blekko will do to Google's franchise. The world is too big and too complex to pretend we know this stuff. If you can predict this five years out then you are way smarter than me.
The same is true of most of the large caps in our portfolio. I think on the balance of probabilities any one of them will be alright. They are almost certainly going to be alright on average. Predictions beyond that run the risk of pretending I know more about the future than I do about the past or present.
Still - having the overwhelming feeling that large caps are OK - and small caps disastrous I figured I could focus my attention on finding and shorting really dodgy small caps (which we have done to considerable success) and buying a diversified pool of large caps (where our success has been more limited). That figures - I can add value on the small caps - it just happens that value has been on the short side.
Picking fund managers
If I figure large caps are on average OK - but that I have no expertise in picking them - then maybe I should buy the listed fund managers. I understand them - indeed I used to work for a listed equity manager. Equity managers are levered plays off large caps in general. If the large cap equities perform well the managers will get flows - and they will perform doubly well. Fund flows to domestic large cap managers have been terrible for some time - and a possible turn around in them is the source of the double leverage to the upside.
Flows however are not inspiring. One of the better articles of late has been by Derek Pilecki of the very small firm Gator Capital. He compares the flows of the majors and suggests buying Franklin Resources (NYSE:BEN). The flows last year were almost 70 billion - the best in BEN's considerable history.
We are impressed - but we are not exactly thrilled. The flows - even at a mutual fund group with way-better-than-average flow data - is dominated by fixed income flows. That capital going into fixed income is going to yield the intermediate bond rate (a couple of percent) minus fees (low but not trivial relative to a two percent yield) plus something for the extra risk the fixed income fund takes on. There is no double leverage for us there!
And just to add insult to injury all those flows want to earn a little more than 2 percent - and the easiest way to juice your yield is a buy a few covenant-lite bonds from our friends in the PE shops. Franklin's fund flow increases - rather than decreases - my lament about this market.
And thus this dumb-and-annoying market goes on. We don't want to fight: fighting the tape can be awfully expensive. But whilst we won't fight it we also don't want to dance just because the music is still playing.
And hence we focus on diversified fraud shorts because we can add real value. And the rest is invested very conservatively (meaning large cap equities). We are adding little to no value there - but at least it is "better than bonds". Combined we are doing alright (indeed quite well) - but it is a day to day struggle. Moreover whilst the frauds can be interesting - its a niche concern - and, besides, most of them I can't or won't write about. So, for my readers, it results in less interesting blog posts.
Yours in lament.
26 comments:
John, thanks for your lament and for sharing your thoughts.
You state 'Moreover whilst the frauds can be interesting - its a niche concern - and, besides, most of them I can't or won't write about.'
1. China Agritech is a 'fraud' you wirte about - what prevents you from sharing the others?
2. How do you generate leads on potential frauds - you are short 50 (from a much greater pool of candidates?) so you must have a systematic approach to how you id these targets. What advice can you give to others wanting to follow your approach? thanks - February 24, 2011 at 6:44 PM
RE: Diversified fraud shorts.
You have to get short and get loud. See what Kerrisdale did : they put out a report so convincing that even the longs have to say, " Yeah, the emperor has no clothes."
Sure made the fraud fold overnight too.
Another example is David Einhorn with Lehman Brothers: build a case so tight that the longs have to say, "Yeah, at best, Lehman is fudging the accounts. But more likely that there is acounting fraud going on."
Soldier on. And stop pussyfooting--kock out the frauds with one punch already. - February 24, 2011 at 7:21 PM
- John Hempton said...
Generating shorts has become a project...
There are tips that I am not going to share. For instance I know lawyers where every time their name has appeared in the SEC database within 4 years the stock has traded below 10c.
Every single time.
I guess these lawyers attract loser clients - every client - every one - goes out of business.
Do I want to tell you who they are?
Firstly that is a tool of trade.
Secondly - in the time I have written this blog 5 people have threatened to sue me.
I have no desire to make it six.
John - February 24, 2011 at 8:00 PM
- t said...
Hi John,
I appreciate your general point, but despite the relative performance of small caps vs large caps, still find plenty of value in the smaller co's.
My starting point is that growth is value. Fund managers are GENERALLY quite lazy, especially in long-only land, and take what brokers say at face value. However, analysts always (i) factor in mean reversion into growth, so fade it very quickly (if they don't do this, DCF's look 'stupid') and (ii) always underestimate margin expansion.
So if growth is value, where is the growth? Banks? Pharma? Telco's? Utilities? Those are all large-cap dominated sectors.
Of course, I generalise to make a point, but I'm still happy to look for longs in the mid- and small-cap space. - February 24, 2011 at 8:39 PM
- John Hempton said...
Well Mr T - always interested in names...
But you got to make it look better than say Walmart at 13 times or Target at a similar ratio or plenty below 10 times.
Best value is often loss making companies because nobody does the valuation correctly. I guess Sprint stands out as a possible...
J - February 24, 2011 at 8:53 PM
FMG dec puts were cheap before and are a steal now after the asic ruling.... one lonely guy in the middle of nowhere, with one product and one customer who's ready to blowup any time, loading on debt. what could go wrong?
- February 24, 2011 at 9:24 PM
- John Hempton said...
Oh, nothing could go wrong with FMG. Like nothing could possibly go wrong with Anaconda.
J - February 24, 2011 at 9:42 PM
"in a few years the dominant computing device will be a phone - probably an Android phone" - That's a bold, if not pretty exaggerated forecast, don't ya think? reminds me of the countless number of "the death of the pc" ads that the MFool keeps sending out - year in, year out. And yet, the number of laptops and desktops combined continues to grow...
A phone will always simply be too small and uncomfortable for most stuff that is being done on laptops. the same holds for the grossly overhyped iPad - a nice toy and of great use for SOME - but for most it's just another nice-to-have but effectively unnecessary gadget.
regarding the subject of your lament, your observations regarding the low borrowing costs for PE shops are absolutely true. But is more than that: the helicopters of the bernanke Fed have effectively made any stock selection based on fundamentals a futile exercise - at least when it comes to outperofrm the overall market. not for ever, of course, as quality stocks will perform superior over time. As long as the fed keeps printing gazillions of fresh $ every day, though, the riskiest, most levered and most cyclical stocks will go up the most.
What to do? stick to cheaply priced quality stocks, precious metals and lots of cash. opportunities will come once the house of card comes crashing down - as it ALWAYS does. It will not be different this time. - February 25, 2011 at 12:40 AM
- NotATeabagger said...
Nice comments, dont read your blog too often, usually get directed here via Naked Capitalism when Yves finds a good link. I will def check it out more often.
Re Sprint...I'd say stay away. I was a hardcore long, dumped it around Q3. If you check out market folly you can find my reason for dumping it. Einhorn is long but i think he gets "BSX-d" on it (BSX was a prior losing long for GL).
think the competitive dynamics are just awful now for S.
I do think US micro/small caps over some serious value though. Old media stocks in the micro/small have been sold off because of long term business risk but circs have stabilized, cash flow is solid and you have 2012 with olympics and elections. so if u do your homework, fine broadcasters with good NBC coverage and have broadcasting and newspapers in battleground states like VA, OH, FL and then have rationalized their cost basis to the point where you get sick op leverage in 2012, u can get a 2-3 bagger.
I am also long an auto supplier that is at <4x ev/ebitda, very modest capex so cheap on p/cf basis. 40% insider ownership, <$100MM market cap, <$50MM EV.
Sells to the big 3 which are undergoing a resurgence of sorts. Plus when u are coming off 12MM annualized autos, u dont need to get to 15MM for these guys at this valuation to move up. nice little bump to 12.5MM would be nice.
In the US i think some may overlook that small/micro companies didn't benefit from the largesse the big boys did. HOG and HD converted into bank holding cos during the crisis. These small cos really had to make it on their own. This co restructured things in a way that their gross margins now are higher (50%) than they were pre crisis, dumping bad segment, etc and really turning things around.
For me anything <1 tang bv or even <1 book value (when intangibles = ip, licensing, tech that can be analyzed to have more than 0 write down val), and/or <5 ev/ebitda (provided low capex) is worth a quick look.
I will say I have lost the most on China stocks. just written them off entirely in the small cap area. - February 25, 2011 at 1:58 AM
Ah, yes. We entered this business assuming we would focus heavily on small caps, yet our long book is currently dominated by large caps. I spent years consulting to and analyzing telcos and generally think they are poor investments, yet we have owned three big telcos in size for over a year.
We are still finding some value in small caps, including one area relevant to your posts: We are net flat China small-caps, but get there by being short a number of them and long others. After digging into that group and following it for three years, we are fairly confident we have identified a few of them that are honest. If we're right, the valuations on the honest ones are ridiculously low. - February 25, 2011 at 3:03 AM
- John Hempton said...
By number I think the phone being the dominant computing device is kinda obvious.
3.4 billion handsets in the world - most of which are NOT computing devices. A billion computers.
In five years the handsets will have rolled over - and they will all be smart phones.
So there will be 3.4 billion computing devices called phones.
Whether they are the dominant computing device by computing power used - well that I doubt.
But as for ways people use the internet by number rather that in total - no doubt on that.
J - February 25, 2011 at 5:16 AM
Great post John. I had wondered for a while why there seemed to be relatively better bargains in large caps than small, and PE explains it. (I don't know if it was, or should've been, obvious to people, but as a hobbyist speculator I didn't put those two and two together.)
It also explains why certain China stocks are trading cheap for their growth (I'm thinking of some of the solar shares in particular.) If they can't easily be bought out they aren't going to fetch this sort of PE premium that US small caps will have. (And I suppose there's a fraud premium too.) - February 25, 2011 at 5:48 AM
John I agree with you on small caps. Two I follow that have had silly moves are CRDN (up 67% since July from a somewhat cheap valuation, with no real signs of business turnaround, for a company whose main business, armor, has dried up severely, and whose secondary business, solar, has huge overcapacity concerns) and RAVN (up 60% since July from a reasonable valuation for a well-run supplier of niche industrial/ag goods to silly territory of 23x peak earnings).
NotATeabagger: I understand retail investors overlook these stocks, but its hard to believe that cash-rich competitors and PE shops overlook them at the same time. If they're that cheap in this environment they are probably pretty low quality and would blow up in a further recession.
I think one way out of the trap is some of the mid-caps that could be buyouts if PE shops start upsizing their deals again or could just get re-rated if management can gain market trust - stuff like WHR, ITT before they announced their split-up (getting close to fair value now), ENR, etc. The larger, more clearly high quality companies in those spaces are pricing in further growth from current historical peak margins/earnings, but some of the midcaps have been left behind because no one wanted to borrow $10b to buy them out and it's easier to get fired for buying ENR than PG. - February 25, 2011 at 6:20 AM
- Caque said...
As a french (very) small individual investor in small-micro caps, I'm surprised and interested that you do your shopping here.
Would you care to mention a few names (just out of curiosity) or your selection criteria ?
Anyway I'm starting a (modest) blog on this subject and would appreciate feedback on my own good / bad investing ideas.
http://valueinvestingfrance.blogspot.com/ - February 25, 2011 at 7:51 AM
Hi John, thanks for that post.
You may have to deal with this for a while. I added a little bit to the small vs large cap view at my global macro blog here:
Cheers. - February 25, 2011 at 8:25 AM
- Keith Hemstreet said...
I have enjoyed your posts for years now, and contrary to what you might think, the fraud shorts are great fun. You should seriously consider writing a book about them. - February 25, 2011 at 2:13 PM
- Unknown said...
John, for your first correspondent's benefit I would add the Asia Aluminium Group (now called Zaoquing Asia Aluminium), which left investors more than US700 million out of pocket, including some interesting names. Dodgy stuff.
- February 25, 2011 at 2:44 PM
- Frank Canneto said...
this is a theme I have kept in my mind, with interest rates at zero bound, the world is awash in cheap money and this is causing distortions, it is likely causing a mis-alocation of capital, such as flowing into housing which was obvious but also into all the securitized products which was less publicised.
So as an small individual investor, I want to know where are the bloated sectors and what are those specific instruments.
THANK YOU for finding one for me, this is very important.
frank canneto - February 25, 2011 at 2:44 PM
- Rich said...
I share the perception that very little in small cap is cheap, yet I had several PE takeout bids from my portfolio in 2007, and none in 2010-11. The point you're making has been echoed by Grantham, but I still see some "sort-of cheap" small cap merchandise out there, and I expect that some of the PE use it or lose it money may become less discriminating before this round is over.
To add to the hopper of concerns, what has been troubling me is that there is such rapid technological change in every industry, that business has become competitive than ever. How does this change impact the risk premium that is supposedly required to invest in equities?
An answer might be to find those firms who are creating the disruptive technological change, but whenever I look in depth at an industry it seems that it's more than one firm doing the disrupting. That simple path, at least for me, hasn't provided acceptable investment opportunities.
To add complexity to the investment problem, demographics argue for a consistent period of dissaving as the baby-boom generation funds retirement expenses from savings withdrawals. Common sense would seem to require higher rates of return to compensate for the risk, yet the opposite seems to hold in markets for now.
And what IS the risk-free rate of return when short term interest rates have their price administered by the Fed, longer term rates are jimmied by QE2 and Chinese and Japanese government buying, and the key Asian- USD exchange rate prices bear no relation to a free market?
Quite lamentable! - February 25, 2011 at 2:49 PM
- GTT said...
John, your comparison with Buffett leads people astray. You neglect to mention the terms WB got on his massive equity injections into various companies in Oct 08 time frame of his famous "buy american" article. This is very sloppy analysis bordering on disinformation.
- February 25, 2011 at 3:56 PM
Looks like a robust recovery here--and American companies have plenty of cash to spend on more capital improvements, which should lead to more increases in output per worker.
The only potholes I see are these events we have nothing to do with--a Libya, some European debt problems, hurricanes etc.
Yes, long-term I would like less debt in the USA, but I think mild inflation will accomplish the same thing.
And if you can't find some seriously profitable, good quality companies to own shares of for the next several years, four, five, ten baggers, well what can I say. Short away, mate. Short away. - February 25, 2011 at 4:19 PM
- Nihoncassandra said...
indeed that may be half of it. The other half is the drag on large caps of cap-weighted ETF and market indices as the hedge of choice. This eliminates tail risk (on the short side) and allows guys (and they are guys) to get maximum bang for buck in using their weight of money to directly impact performance. A double- buggering awaits this trade during the next bout of risk-off deleveraging. - February 25, 2011 at 6:47 PM
- Alaric Investments said...
It is always tough investing at a top, even an interim top.
The question for you down there is how long it will be until the AUD breaks down; something must adjust to the serious purchasing power parity discrepancy down in OZ......
I cannot comprehend how ordinary people in OZ are coping with the high prices, particularly for property, but also for food and energy... - February 26, 2011 at 1:33 AM
- Philo said...
"The low yields that PE funds can issue debt have now resulted in low ex-ante returns for small cap investors." The same must be true for large-cap investors. Small cap and large cap are not two different worlds--short term rates are low for both. If rates are low, so is the expected return necessary to make a proposed business venture worth pursuing. Investors must accept relatively low expected returns on their equity investments when debt investments offer even lower returns. This is what the low-interest world looks like.
In short, you don't succeed in making plausible your claim that large caps are relatively cheap. (Given the greater number and greater obscurity of small caps, there will always be more small cap frauds than large-cap frauds. By the way, your work in ferreting them out is obviously socially very useful; and your posts on the frauds are quite interesting.)
"[I]t is a day to day struggle." C'est la vie! - February 26, 2011 at 3:45 AM
After all of these fraud allegations over the last few months, how many do you think will fail an audit and/or get delisted in the coming weeks?
W/ the SEC investigation, it seems like this is finally going to be the breaking point when those "emperors with no clothes" companies get nailed. - February 26, 2011 at 7:45 AM
I am curious whether you have looked into Benford's law and its applications in accounting forensics as a means of identifying fraud in companies you review.
- February 26, 2011 at 9:01 AM
General disclaimer
The content contained in this blog represents the opinions of Mr. Hempton. You should assume Mr. Hempton and his affiliates have positions in the securities discussed in this blog, and such beneficial ownership can create a conflict of interest regarding the objectivity of this blog. Statements in the blog are not guarantees of future performance and are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and other factors. Certain information in this blog concerning economic trends and performance is based on or derived from information provided by third-party sources. Mr. Hempton does not guarantee the accuracy of such information and has not independently verified the accuracy or completeness of such information or the assumptions on which such information is based. Such information may change after it is posted and Mr. Hempton is not obligated to, and may not, update it. The commentary in this blog in no way constitutes a solicitation of business, an offer of a security or a solicitation to purchase a security, or investment advice. In fact, it should not be relied upon in making investment decisions, ever. It is intended solely for the entertainment of the reader, and the author. In particular this blog is not directed for investment purposes at US Persons.


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