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Coronavirus: The Hammer and the Dance
What the Next 18 Months Can Look Like, if Leaders Buy Us Time
This article follows Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now, with over 40 million views and 30 translations. Translations into 37 languages available at the bottom. Running list of endorsements here. Over 10 million views so far.
Following articles:
- Coronavirus: Out of Many, One: A deep dive in the US
- Coronavirus: Learning How to Dance: How the best countries are fighting the epidemic
- Coronavirus: The Basic Dance Steps Everybody Can Follow
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Summary of the article: Strong coronavirus measures today should only last a few weeks, there shouldn't be a big peak of infections afterwards, and it can all be done for a reasonable cost to society, saving millions of lives along the way. If we don't take these measures, tens of millions will be infected, many will die, along with anybody else that requires intensive care, because the healthcare system will have collapsed.
Within a week, countries around the world have gone from: "This coronavirus thing is not a big deal" to declaring the state of emergency. Yet many countries are still not doing much. Why?
Every country is asking the same question: How should we respond? The answer is not obvious to them.
Some countries, like France, Spain or Philippines, have since ordered heavy lockdowns. Others, like the US, UK, or Switzerland, have dragged their feet, hesitantly venturing into social distancing measures.
Here's what we're going to cover today, again with lots of charts, data and models with plenty of sources:
- What's the current situation?
- What options do we have?
- What's the one thing that matters now: Time
- What does a good coronavirus strategy look like?
- How should we think about the economic and social impacts?
When you're done reading the article, this is what you'll take away:
Our healthcare system is already collapsing.
Countries have two options: either they fight it hard now, or they will suffer a massive epidemic.
If they choose the epidemic, hundreds of thousands will die. In some countries, millions.
And that might not even eliminate further waves of infections.
If we fight hard now, we will curb the deaths.
We will relieve our healthcare system.
We will prepare better.
We will learn.
The world has never learned as fast about anything, ever.
And we need it, because we know so little about this virus.
All of this will achieve something critical: Buy Us Time.
If we choose to fight hard, the fight will be sudden, then gradual.
We will be locked in for weeks, not months.
Then, we will get more and more freedoms back.
It might not be back to normal immediately.
But it will be close, and eventually back to normal.
And we can do all that while considering the rest of the economy too.
Ok, let's do this.
1. What's the situation?
Last week, I showed this curve:
It showed coronavirus cases across the world outside of China. We could only discern Italy, Iran and South Korea. So I had to zoom in on the bottom right corner to see the emerging countries. My entire point is that they would soon be joining these 3 cases.
Let's see what has happened since.
As predicted, the number of cases has exploded in dozens of countries. Here, I was forced to show only countries with over 1,000 cases. A few things to note:
- Spain, Germany, France and the US all have more cases than Italy when it ordered the lockdown
- An additional 16 countries have more cases today than Hubei when it went under lockdown: Japan, Malaysia, Canada, Portugal, Australia, Czechia, Brazil and Qatar have more than Hubei but below 1,000 cases. Switzerland, Sweden, Norway, Austria, Belgium, Netherlands and Denmark all have above 1,000 cases.
Do you notice something weird about this list of countries? Outside of China and Iran, which have suffered massive, undeniable outbreaks, and Brazil and Malaysia, every single country in this list is among the wealthiest in the world.
Do you think this virus targets rich countries? Or is it more likely that rich countries are better able to identify the virus?
It's unlikely that poorer countries aren't touched. Warm and humid weather probably helps, but doesn't prevent an outbreak by itself — otherwise Singapore, Malaysia or Brazil wouldn't be suffering outbreaks.
The most likely interpretations are that the coronavirus either took longer to reach these countries because they're less connected, or it's already there but these countries haven't been able to invest enough on testing to know.
Either way, if this is true, it means that most countries won't escape the coronavirus. It's a matter of time before they see outbreaks and need to take measures.
What measures can different countries take?
2. What Are Our Options?
Since the article last week, the conversation has changed and many countries have taken measures. Here are some of the most illustrative examples:
Measures in Spain and France
In one extreme, we have Spain and France. This is the timeline of measures for Spain:
On Thursday, 3/12, the President dismissed suggestions that the Spanish authorities had been underestimating the health threat.
On Friday, they declared the State of Emergency.
On Saturday, measures were taken:
- People can't leave home except for key reasons: groceries, work, pharmacy, hospital, bank or insurance company (extreme justification)
- Specific ban on taking kids out for a walk or seeing friends or family (except to take care of people who need help, but with hygiene and physical distance measures)
- All bars and restaurants closed. Only take-home acceptable.
- All entertainment closed: sports, movies, museums, municipal celebrations…
- Weddings can't have guests. Funerals can't have more than a handful of people.
- Mass transit remains open
On Monday, land borders were shut.
Some people see this as a great list of measures. Others put their hands up in the air and cry of despair. This difference is what this article will try to reconcile.
France's timeline of measures is similar, except they took more time to apply them, and they are more aggressive now. For example, rent, taxes and utilities are suspended for small businesses.
Measures in the US and UK
The US and UK, like countries such as Switzerland, have dragged their feet in implementing measures. Here's the timeline for the US:
- Wednesday 3/11: travel ban.
- Friday: National Emergency declared. No social distancing measures
- Monday: the government urges the public to avoid restaurants or bars and attend events with more than 10 people. No social distancing measure is actually enforceable. It's just a suggestion.
Lots of states and cities are taking the initiative and mandating much stricter measures.
The UK has seen a similar set of measures: lots of recommendations, but very few mandates.
These two groups of countries illustrate the two extreme approaches to fight the coronavirus: mitigation and suppression. Let's understand what they mean.
Option 1: Do Nothing
Before we do that, let's see what doing nothing would entail for a country like the US:
If we do nothing: Everybody gets infected, the healthcare system gets overwhelmed, the mortality explodes, and ~10 million people die (blue bars). For the back-of-the-envelope numbers: if ~75% of Americans get infected and 4% die, that's 10 million deaths, or around 25 times the number of US deaths in World War II.
You might wonder: "That sounds like a lot. I've heard much less than that!"
So what's the catch? With all these numbers, it's easy to get confused. But there's only two numbers that matter: What share of people will catch the virus and fall sick, and what share of them will die. If only 25% are sick (because the others have the virus but don't have symptoms so aren't counted as cases), and the fatality rate is 0.6% instead of 4%, you end up with 500k deaths in the US.
If we don't do anything, the number of deaths from the coronavirus will probably land between these two numbers. The chasm between these extremes is mostly driven by the fatality rate, so understanding it better is crucial. What really causes the coronavirus deaths?
How Should We Think about the Fatality Rate?
This is the same graph as before, but now looking at hospitalized people instead of infected and dead:
The light blue area is the number of people who would need to go to the hospital, and the darker blue represents those who need to go to the intensive care unit (ICU). You can see that number would peak at above 3 million.
Now compare that to the number of ICU beds we have in the US (50k today, we could double that repurposing other space). That's the red dotted line.
No, that's not an error.
That red dotted line is the capacity we have of ICU beds. Everyone above that line would be in critical condition but wouldn't be able to access the care they need, and would likely die.
Instead of ICU beds you can also look at ventilators, but the result is broadly the same, since there are fewer than 100k ventilators in the US.
This is why people died in droves in Hubei and are now dying in droves in Italy and Iran. The Hubei fatality rate ended up better than it could have been because they built 2 hospitals nearly overnight. Italy and Iran can't do the same; few, if any, other countries can. We'll see what ends up happening there.
So why is the fatality rate close to 4%?
If 5% of your cases require intensive care and you can't provide it, most of those people die. As simple as that.
Additionally, recent data suggests that US cases are more severe than in China.
I wish that was all, but it isn't.
Collateral Damage
These numbers only show people dying from coronavirus. But what happens if all your healthcare system is collapsed by coronavirus patients? Others also die from other ailments.
What happens if you have a heart attack but the ambulance takes 50 minutes to come instead of 8 (too many coronavirus cases) and once you arrive, there's no ICU and no doctor available? You die.
There are 4 million admissions to the ICU in the US every year, and 500k (~13%) of them die. Without ICU beds, that share would likely go much closer to 80%. Even if only 50% died, in a year-long epidemic you go from 500k deaths a year to 2M, so you're adding 1.5M deaths, just with collateral damage.
If the coronavirus is left to spread, the US healthcare system will collapse, and the deaths will be in the millions, maybe more than 10 million.
The same thinking is true for most countries. The number of ICU beds and ventilators and healthcare workers are usually similar to the US or lower in most countries. Unbridled coronavirus means healthcare system collapse, and that means mass death.
Unbridled coronavirus means healthcare systems collapse, and that means mass death.
By now, I hope it's pretty clear we should act. The two options that we have are mitigation and suppression. Both of them propose to "flatten the curve", but they go about it very differently.
Option 2: Mitigation Strategy
Mitigation goes like this: "It's impossible to prevent the coronavirus now, so let's just have it run its course, while trying to reduce the peak of infections. Let's just flatten the curve a little bit to make it more manageable for the healthcare system."
This chart appears in a very important paper published over the weekend from the Imperial College London. Apparently, it pushed the UK and US governments to change course.
It's a very similar graph as the previous one. Not the same, but conceptually equivalent. Here, the "Do Nothing" situation is the black curve. Each one of the other curves are what would happen if we implemented tougher and tougher social distancing measures. The blue one shows the toughest social distancing measures: isolating infected people, quarantining people who might be infected, and secluding old people. This blue line is broadly the current UK coronavirus strategy, although for now they're just suggesting it, not mandating it.
Here, again, the red line is the capacity for ICUs, this time in the UK. Again, that line is very close to the bottom. All that area of the curve on top of that red line represents coronavirus patients who would mostly die because of the lack of ICU resources.
Not only that, but by flattening the curve, the ICUs will collapse for months, increasing collateral damage.
You should be shocked. When you hear: "We're going to do some mitigation" what they're really saying is: "We will knowingly overwhelm the healthcare system, driving the fatality rate up by a factor of 10x at least."
You would imagine this is bad enough. But we're not done yet. Because one of the key assumptions of this strategy is what's called "Herd Immunity".
Herd Immunity and Virus Mutation
The idea is that all the people who are infected and then recover are now immune to the virus. This is at the core of this strategy: "Look, I know it's going to be hard for some time, but once we're done and a few million people die, the rest of us will be immune to it, so this virus will stop spreading and we'll say goodbye to the coronavirus. Better do it at once and be done with it, because our alternative is to do social distancing for up to a year and risk having this peak happen later anyways."
Except this assumes one thing: the virus doesn't change too much. If it doesn't change much, then lots of people do get immunity, and at some point the epidemic dies down
How likely is this virus to mutate?
It seems it already has.
This graph represents the different mutations of the virus. You can see that the initial strains started in purple in China and then spread. Each time you see a branching on the left graph, that is a mutation leading to a slightly different variant of the virus.
This should not be surprising: RNA-based viruses like the coronavirus or the flu tend to mutate around 100 times faster than DNA-based ones—although the coronavirus mutates more slowly than influenza viruses.
Not only that, but the best way for this virus to mutate is to have millions of opportunities to do so, which is exactly what a mitigation strategy would provide: hundreds of millions of people infected.
That's why you have to get a flu shot every year. Because there are so many flu strains, with new ones always evolving, the flu shot can never protect against all strains.
Put in another way: the mitigation strategy not only assumes millions of deaths for a country like the US or the UK. It also gambles on the fact that the virus won't mutate too much — which we know it does. And it will give it the opportunity to mutate. So once we're done with a few million deaths, we could be ready for a few million more — every year. This corona virus could become a recurring fact of life, like the flu, but many times deadlier.
The best way for this virus to mutate is to have millions of opportunities to do so, which is exactly what a mitigation strategy would provide.
So if neither doing nothing nor mitigation will work, what's the alternative? It's called suppression.
Option 3: Suppression Strategy
The Mitigation Strategy doesn't try to contain the epidemic, just flatten the curve a bit. Meanwhile, the Suppression Strategy tries to apply heavy measures to quickly get the epidemic under control. Specifically:
- Go hard right now. Order heavy social distancing. Get this thing under control.
- Then, release the measures, so that people can gradually get back their freedoms and something approaching normal social and economic life can resume.
What does that look like?
Under a suppression strategy, after the first wave is done, the death toll is in the thousands, and not in the millions.
Why? Because not only do we cut the exponential growth of cases, we also cut the fatality rate since the healthcare system is not completely overwhelmed. Here, I used a fatality rate of 0.9%, around what we're seeing in South Korea today, which has been most effective at following Suppression Strategy.
Said like this, it sounds like a no-brainer. Everybody should follow the Suppression Strategy.
So why do some governments hesitate?
They fear three things:
- This first lockdown will last for months, which seems unacceptable for many people.
- A months-long lockdown would destroy the economy.
- It wouldn't even solve the problem, because we would be just postponing the epidemic: later on, once we release the social distancing measures, people will still get infected in the millions and die.
Here is how the Imperial College team modeled suppressions. The green and yellow lines are different scenarios of Suppression. You can see that doesn't look good: We still get huge peaks, so why bother?
We'll get to these questions in a moment, but there's something more important before.
This is completely missing the point.
Presented like these, the two options of Mitigation and Suppression, side by side, don't look very appealing. Either a lot of people die soon and we don't hurt the economy today, or we hurt the economy today, just to postpone the deaths.
This ignores the value of time.
3. The Value of Time
In our previous post, we explained the value of time in saving lives. Every day, every hour we waited to take measures, this exponential threat continued spreading. We saw how a single day could reduce the total cases by 40% and the death toll by even more.
But time is even more valuable than that.
We're about to face the biggest wave of pressure on the healthcare system ever seen in history. We are completely unprepared, facing an enemy we don't know. That is not a good position for war.
What if you were about to face your worst enemy, of which you knew very little, and you had two options: Either you run towards it, or you escape to buy yourself a bit of time to prepare. Which one would you choose?
This is what we need to do today. The world has awakened. Every single day we delay the coronavirus, we can get better prepared. The next sections detail what that time would buy us:
Lower the Number of Cases
With effective suppression, the number of true cases would plummet overnight, as we saw in Hubei last week.
As of today, there are 0 daily new cases of coronavirus in the entire 60 million-big region of Hubei.
The diagnostics would keep going up for a couple of weeks, but then they would start going down. With fewer cases, the fatality rate starts dropping too. And the collateral damage is also reduced: fewer people would die from non-coronavirus-related causes because the healthcare system is simply overwhelmed.
Suppression would get us:
- Fewer total cases of Coronavirus
- Immediate relief for the healthcare system and the humans who run it
- Reduction in fatality rate
- Reduction in collateral damage
- Ability for infected, isolated and quarantined healthcare workers to get better and back to work. In Italy, healthcare workers represent 8% of all contagions.
Understand the True Problem: Testing and Tracing
Right now, the UK and the US have no idea about their true cases. We don't know how many there are. We just know the official number is not right, and the true one is in the tens of thousands of cases. This has happened because we're not testing, and we're not tracing.
- With a few more weeks, we could get our testing situation in order, and start testing everybody. With that information, we would finally know the true extent of the problem, where we need to be more aggressive, and what communities are safe to be released from a lockdown.
- New testing methods could speed up testing and drive costs down substantially.
- We could also set up a tracing operation like the ones they have in China or other East Asia countries, where they can identify all the people that every sick person met, and can put them in quarantine. This would give us a ton of intelligence to release later on our social distancing measures: if we know where the virus is, we can target these places only. This is not rocket science: it's the basics of how East Asia Countries have been able to control this outbreak without the kind of draconian social distancing that is increasingly essential in other countries.
The measures from this section (testing and tracing) single-handedly curbed the growth of the coronavirus in South Korea and got the epidemic under control, without a strong imposition of social distancing measures.
Build Up Capacity
The US (and presumably the UK) are about to go to war without armor.
We have masks for just two weeks, few personal protective equipments ("PPE"), not enough ventilators, not enough ICU beds, not enough ECMOs (blood oxygenation machines)… This is why the fatality rate would be so high in a mitigation strategy.
But if we buy ourselves some time, we can turn this around:
- We have more time to buy equipment we will need for a future wave
- We can quickly build up our production of masks, PPEs, ventilators, ECMOs, and any other critical device to reduce fatality rate.
Put in another way: we don't need years to get our armor, we need weeks. Let's do everything we can to get our production humming now. Countries are mobilized. People are being inventive, such as using 3D printing for ventilator parts. We can do it. We just need more time. Would you wait a few weeks to get yourself some armor before facing a mortal enemy?
This is not the only capacity we need. We will need health workers as soon as possible. Where will we get them? We need to train people to assist nurses, and we need to get medical workers out of retirement. Many countries have already started, but this takes time. We can do this in a few weeks, but not if everything collapses.
Lower Public Contagiousness
The public is scared. The coronavirus is new. There's so much we don't know how to do yet! People haven't learned to stop hand-shaking. They still hug. They don't open doors with their elbow. They don't wash their hands after touching a door knob. They don't disinfect tables before sitting.
Once we have enough masks, we can use them outside of the healthcare system too. Right now, it's better to keep them for healthcare workers. But if they weren't scarce, people should wear them in their daily lives, making it less likely that they infect other people when sick, and with proper training also reducing the likelihood that the wearers get infected. (In the meantime, wearing something is better than nothing.)
All of these are pretty cheap ways to reduce the transmission rate. The less this virus propagates, the fewer measures we'll need in the future to contain it. But we need time to educate people on all these measures and equip them.
Understand the Virus
We know very very little about the virus. But every week, hundreds of new papers are coming.
The world is finally united against a common enemy. Researchers around the globe are mobilizing to understand this virus better.
How does the virus spread?
How can contagion be slowed down?
What is the share of asymptomatic carriers?
Are they contagious? How much?
What are good treatments?
How long does it survive?
On what surfaces?
How do different social distancing measures impact the transmission rate?
What's their cost?
What are tracing best practices?
How reliable are our tests?
Clear answers to these questions will help make our response as targeted as possible while minimizing collateral economic and social damage. And they will come in weeks, not years.
Find Treatments
Not only that, but what if we found a treatment in the next few weeks? Any day we buy gets us closer to that. Right now, there are already several candidates, such as Favipiravir, Chloroquine, or Chloroquine combined with Azithromycin. What if it turned out that in two months we discovered a treatment for the coronavirus? How stupid would we look if we already had millions of deaths following a mitigation strategy?
Understand the Cost-Benefits
All of the factors above can help us save millions of lives. That should be enough. Unfortunately, politicians can't only think about the lives of the infected. They must think about all the population, and heavy social distancing measures have an impact on others.
Right now we have no idea how different social distancing measures reduce transmission. We also have no clue what their economic and social costs are.
Isn't it a bit difficult to decide what measures we need for the long term if we don't know their cost or benefit?
A few weeks would give us enough time to start studying them, understand them, prioritize them, and decide which ones to follow.
Fewer cases, more understanding of the problem, building up assets, understanding the virus, understanding the cost-benefit of different measures, educating the public… These are some core tools to fight the virus, and we just need a few weeks to develop many of them. Wouldn't it be dumb to commit to a strategy that throws us instead, unprepared, into the jaws of our enemy?
4. The Hammer and the Dance
Now we know that the Mitigation Strategy is probably a terrible choice, and that the Suppression Strategy has a massive short-term advantage.
But people have rightful concerns about this strategy:
- How long will it actually last?
- How expensive will it be?
- Will there be a second peak as big as if we didn't do anything?
Here, we're going to look at what a true Suppression Strategy would look like. We can call it the Hammer and the Dance.
The Hammer
First, you act quickly and aggressively. For all the reasons we mentioned above, given the value of time, we want to quench this thing as soon as possible.
One of the most important questions is: How long will this last?
The fear that everybody has is that we will be locked inside our homes for months at a time, with the ensuing economic disaster and mental breakdowns. This idea was unfortunately entertained in the famous Imperial College paper:
Do you remember this chart? The light blue area that goes from end of March to end of August is the period that the paper recommends as the Hammer, the initial suppression that includes heavy social distancing.
If you're a politician and you see that one option is to let hundreds of thousands or millions of people die with a mitigation strategy and the other is to stop the economy for five months before going through the same peak of cases and deaths, these don't sound like compelling options.
But this doesn't need to be so. This paper, driving policy today, has been brutally criticized for core flaws: They ignore contact tracing (at the core of policies in South Korea, China or Singapore among others) or travel restrictions (critical in China), ignore the impact of big crowds…
The time needed for the Hammer is weeks, not months.
This graph shows the new cases in the entire Hubei region (60 million people) every day since 1/23. Within 2 weeks, the country was starting to get back to work. Within ~5 weeks it was completely under control. And within 7 weeks the new diagnostics was just a trickle. Let's remember this was the worst region in China.
Remember again that these are the orange bars. The grey bars, the true cases, had plummeted much earlier (see Chart 9).
The measures they took were pretty similar to the ones taken in Italy, Spain or France: isolations, quarantines, people had to stay at home unless there was an emergency or had to buy food, contact tracing, testing, more hospital beds, travel bans…
Details matter, however.
China's measures were stronger. For example, people were limited to one person per household allowed to leave home every three days to buy food. Also, their enforcement was severe. It is likely that this severity stopped the epidemic faster.
In Italy, France and Spain, measures were not as drastic, and their implementation is not as tough. People still walk on the streets, many without masks. This is likely to result in a slower Hammer: more time to fully control the epidemic.
Some people interpret this as "Democracies will never be able to replicate this reduction in cases". That's wrong.
For several weeks, South Korea had the worst epidemic outside of China. Now, it's largely under control. And they did it without asking people to stay home. They achieved it mostly with very aggressive testing, contact tracing, and enforced quarantines and isolations.
The following table gives a good sense of what measures different countries have followed, and how that has impacted them (this is a work-in-progress. Feedback welcome.)
This shows how countries who were prepared, with stronger epidemiological authority, education on hygiene and social distancing, and early detection and isolation, didn't have to pay with heavier measures afterwards.
Conversely, countries like Italy, Spain or France weren't doing these well, and had to then apply the Hammer with the hard measures at the bottom to catch up.
The lack of measures in the US and UK is in stark contrast, especially in the US. These countries are still not doing what allowed Singapore, South Korea or Taiwan to control the virus, despite their outbreaks growing exponentially. But it's a matter of time. Either they have a massive epidemic, or they realize late their mistake, and have to overcompensate with a heavier Hammer. There is no escape from this.
But it's doable. If an outbreak like South Korea's can be controlled in weeks and without mandated social distancing, Western countries, which are already applying a heavy Hammer with strict social distancing measures, can definitely control the outbreak within weeks. It's a matter of discipline, execution, and how much the population abides by the rules.
Once the Hammer is in place and the outbreak is controlled, the second phase begins: the Dance.
The Dance
If you hammer the coronavirus, within a few weeks you've controlled it and you're in much better shape to address it. Now comes the longer-term effort to keep this virus contained until there's a vaccine.
This is probably the single biggest, most important mistake people make when thinking about this stage: they think it will keep them home for months. This is not the case at all. In fact, it is likely that our lives will go back to close to normal.
The Dance in Successful Countries
How come South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan and Japan have had cases for a long time, in the case of South Korea thousands of them, and yet they're not locked down home?
In this video, the South Korea Foreign Minister explains how her country did it. It was pretty simple: efficient testing, efficient tracing, travel bans, efficient isolating and efficient quarantining.
This paper explains Singapore's approach:
Want to guess their measures? The same ones as in South Korea. In their case, they complemented with economic help to those in quarantine and travel bans and delays.
Is it too late for countries with outbreaks to follow this model? No. By applying the Hammer, they're getting a new chance, a new shot at doing this right. The more they wait, the heavier and longer the hammer, but it can control the epidemics.
But what if all these measures aren't enough?
The Dance of R
I call the months-long period between the Hammer and a vaccine or effective treatment the Dance because it won't be a period during which measures are always the same harsh ones. Some regions will see outbreaks again, others won't for long periods of time. Depending on how cases evolve, we will need to tighten up social distancing measures or we will be able to release them. That is the dance of R: a dance of measures between getting our lives back on track and spreading the disease, one of economy vs. healthcare.
How does this dance work?
It all turns around the R. If you remember, it's the transmission rate. Early on in a standard, unprepared country, it's somewhere between 2 and 3: During the few weeks that somebody is infected, they infect between 2 and 3 other people on average.
If R is above 1, infections grow exponentially into an epidemic. If it's below 1, they die down.
During the Hammer, the goal is to get R as close to zero, as fast as possible, to quench the epidemic. In Wuhan, it is calculated that R was initially 3.9, and after the lockdown and centralized quarantine, it went down to 0.32.
But once you move into the Dance, you don't need to do that anymore. You just need your R to stay below 1: a lot of the social distancing measures have true, hard costs on people. They might lose their job, their business, their healthy habits…
You can remain below R=1 with a few simple measures.
This is an approximation of how different types of patients respond to the virus, as well as their contagiousness. Nobody knows the true shape of this curve, but we've gathered data from different papers to approximate how it looks like.
Every day after they contract the virus, people have some contagion potential. Together, all these days of contagion add up to 2.5 contagions on average.
It is believed that there are some contagions already happening during the "no symptoms" phase. After that, as symptoms grow, usually people go to the doctor, get diagnosed, and their contagiousness diminishes.
For example, early on you have the virus but no symptoms, so you behave as normal. When you speak with people, you spread the virus. When you touch your nose and then open door knob, the next people to open the door and touch their nose get infected.
The more the virus is growing inside you, the more infectious you are. Then, once you start having symptoms, you might slowly stop going to work, stay in bed, wear a mask, or start going to the doctor. The bigger the symptoms, the more you distance yourself socially, reducing the spread of the virus.
Once you're hospitalized, even if you are very contagious you don't tend to spread the virus as much since you're isolated.
This is where you can see the massive impact of policies like those of Singapore or South Korea:
- If people are massively tested, they can be identified even before they have symptoms. Quarantined, they can't spread anything.
- If people are trained to identify their symptoms earlier, they reduce the number of days in blue, and hence their overall contagiousness
- If people are isolated as soon as they have symptoms, the contagions from the orange phase disappear.
- If people are educated about personal distance, mask-wearing, washing hands or disinfecting spaces, they spread less virus throughout the entire period.
Only when all these fail do we need heavier social distancing measures.
The ROI of Social Distancing
If with all these measures we're still way above R=1, we need to reduce the average number of people that each person meets.
There are some very cheap ways to do that, like banning events with more than a certain number of people (eg, 50, 500), or asking people to work from home when they can.
Other are much, much more expensive economically, socially and ethically, such as closing schools and universities, asking everybody to stay home, or closing businesses.
This chart is made up because it doesn't exist today. Nobody has done enough research about this or put together all these measures in a way that can compare them.
It's unfortunate, because it's the single most important chart that politicians would need to make decisions. It illustrates what is really going through their minds.
During the Hammer period, politicians want to lower R as much as possible, through measures that remain tolerable for the population. In Hubei, they went all the way to 0.32. We might not need that: maybe just to 0.5 or 0.6.
But during the Dance of the R period, they want to hover as close to 1 as possible, while staying below it over the long term term. That prevents a new outbreak, while eliminating the most drastic measures.
What this means is that, whether leaders realize it or not, what they're doing is:
- List all the measures they can take to reduce R
- Get a sense of the benefit of applying them: the reduction in R
- Get a sense of their cost: the economic, social, and ethical cost.
- Stack-rank the initiatives based on their cost-benefit
- Pick the ones that give the biggest R reduction up till 1, for the lowest cost.
Initially, their confidence on these numbers will be low. But that's still how they are thinking—and should be thinking about it.
What they need to do is formalize the process: Understand that this is a numbers game in which we need to learn as fast as possible where we are on R, the impact of every measure on reducing R, and their social and economic costs.
Only then will they be able to make a rational decision on what measures they should take.
Conclusion: Buy Us Time
The coronavirus is still spreading nearly everywhere. 152 countries have cases. We are against the clock. But we don't need to be: there's a clear way we can be thinking about this.
Some countries, especially those that haven't been hit heavily yet by the coronavirus, might be wondering: Is this going to happen to me? The answer is: It probably already has. You just haven't noticed. When it really hits, your healthcare system will be in even worse shape than in wealthy countries where the healthcare systems are strong. Better safe than sorry, you should consider taking action now.
For the countries where the coronavirus is already here, the options are clear.
On one side, countries can go the mitigation route: create a massive epidemic, overwhelm the healthcare system, drive the death of millions of people, and release new mutations of this virus in the wild.
On the other, countries can fight. They can lock down for a few weeks to buy us time, create an educated action plan, and control this virus until we have a vaccine.
Governments around the world today, including some such as the US, the UK or Switzerland have so far chosen the mitigation path.
That means they're giving up without a fight. They see other countries having successfully fought this, but they say: "We can't do that!"
What if Churchill had said the same thing? "Nazis are already everywhere in Europe. We can't fight them. Let's just give up." This is what many governments around the world are doing today. They're not giving you a chance to fight this. You have to demand it.
Share the Word
Unfortunately, millions of lives are still at stake. Share this article—or any similar one—if you think it can change people's opinion. Leaders need to understand this to avert a catastrophe. The moment to act is now.
If you want to receive more articles from me, subscribe to my newsletter.
If you are an expert in the field and want to criticize or endorse the article or some of its parts, feel free to leave a private note here or contextually and I will respond or address.
If you want to translate this article, do it on a Medium post and leave me a private note here with your link. Here are the translations currently available:
Spanish (verified by author, full translation inc. charts)(alt. vs. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6)
French (translated by an epidemiologist)
Portuguese (alternative version, Brazilian Portuguese)
Italian (with graphs translated)(Alternative 1, Alternative version on Facebook)
Icelandic (alternative translation)
Czech (alternative translation)
Ukrainian (alternative version)
Romanian (alternative version)
Hungarian (Alternative, with part 1, part 2)
Finnish (alternative)
East & South Asian
Chinese Traditional (full translation including charts, alternative translation)
Chinese Simplified (and version outside of Medium)
Bahasa Indonesia
Bahasa Malaysia
Thai (alternative)
Middle Eastern & Central Asian
Farsi (alternative version outside of Medium)
Hebrew (alternative through external link)
Arabic (alternative)
This article has been the result of a herculean effort by a group of normal citizens working around the clock to find all the relevant research available to structure it into one piece, in case it can help others process all the information that is out there about the coronavirus.
Special thanks to Dr. Carl Juneau (epidemiologist and translator of the French version), Dr. Brandon Fainstad, Pierre Djian, Jorge Peñalva, John Hsu, Genevieve Gee, Elena Baillie, Chris Martinez, Yasemin Denari, Christine Gibson, Matt Bell, Dan Walsh, Jessica Thompson, Karim Ravji, Annie Hazlehurst, and Aishwarya Khanduja. This has been a team effort.
Thank you also to Berin Szoka, Shishir Mehrotra, QVentus, Illumina, Josephine Gavignet, Mike Kidd, and Nils Barth for your advice. Thank you to my company, Course Hero, for giving me the time and freedom to focus on this.


text:
Havana twists have been offering natural girls a fresh take on hair twists, but before you fork over the not-so-tiny amount of cash for new extensions, it's a good idea to know what you're getting.
Havana hair twists are similar to Marley hair twists, but they have a different look, feel, and cost. For an extension expert take, I reached out to Houston-based natural hair stylist Tabitha Lowery to distinguish the features of both and dole out some tress tips so you arrive at the salon prepared. Use this guide to help you decide which one's perfect for you!
Havana Hair Twists
Havana hair twists use Havana hair extensions, available only at FingerComber.com.
Thicker, fuller twists with just two strands. The looser the twist, the fuller it is.
Requires less hair, only 5-6 bags for $12.99 a pop.
Havana twists are much more expensive to purchase than Marley twists. Expect to shell out nearly $100 (after shipping"> for just the hair, not including installation. This tends to be the deal breaker for many who end up opting for Marley hair.
Requires more pre-planning. It's only available online, so you won't be getting your twists installed for another two weeks while you wait for shipping. There is also a limited availability if, say, the website is out of stock in the color you may have wanted.
For those not interested in cerebral weight-lifting, Havana hair twists are much lighter on your head than Marley twists, probably because the hair is fuller and fluffier, not at dense as Marley twists. This unexpectedly comes in handy especially for summer pool parties and water park adventures when your hair becomes heavier when wet! Lowery says: "It feels like 10,000 pounds on your head. I feel like if you're going to pay $100+ for your hair, you want to get something you can actually live with. It's more expensive but worth it."
Havana hair has a rougher texture, lending itself to its trademark full volume. "It's a lot more like our [natural] hair as far as the kink to it." The downside is that it's rougher on your stylist's cuticles, Lowery confides. It's easier to twist with Marley hair.
Thanks to Havana hair's texture, the hair strands "love each other" more, meaning there is no need to boil, tie, or seal the ends. As long as the hair is braided all the way to the last strand, it will seal itself just fine, thank you.
Marley Hair Twists:
Marley hair twists use Marley hair extensions, widely available in a variety of colors at any beauty store carrying extensions. This means you can buy the hair extensions and get your twists installed the same day. Lowery's go-to brand is "Lord & Cliff Hip-Hop Braid Marley Hair."
Thinner, smoother twists when using only two strands. For thicker twists, you have to use more hair. Some fullness can be added by teasing the strands beforehand.
Requires more hair due to the thinner texture, approximately 6-8 bags for about $7 each.
Marley hair extensions will only put a $50-$60 dent in your wallet, so it's a much more budget-friendly option.
Marley hair twists are not as practical and versatile. For example, they become extremely heavy when wet. All of that wet hair ends up weighing you down.
Your stylist will still need to seal the ends of the twists, but the Marley hair overall is smoother on your stylist's cuticles, which means she might grimace less from cuticle cuts.
Both Havana and Marley hair twists typically cost between $100-$160 for installation, depending on the length and thickness of your hair.
Ultimately when selecting the twist type for your tresses, Lowery says to choose the one you can easily live with. While she says Marley hair twists are the most popular due to their affordability and accessibility, she considers Havana hair twists the better investment because of its practicality and overall look. However, in her impatience to wait two weeks for Havana hair, Lowery ended up opting for Marley twists for herself (shown in photo">.
Don't relax your hair before your appointment. If you already have relaxed hair, don't relax it again. This clashes with the texture of the extensions and looks bad.
Use a clarifying shampoo and detangle your hair. The gunk and leftover product needs to go! When your hair is all twisted up, all the debris and gunk can unhygienically build up and even get moldy.
Condition and prepare your hair to make it healthy Assess what your hair needs – protein, humidifier, moisture – and use a deep conditioner or hot oil as needed. Making this at home can help you tailor the mix to your hair's needs. "Because Lord forbid you pay to put all the twists in your hair and then it all breaks off!"
Invisible Twist Installation
Make sure your stylist employs the Invisible Twist method when twisting your hair and does not braid the hair first. This means folding a strand of Havana or Marley hair in half, placing the midpoint on your scalp between two strands of your natural hair, and twisting the two strands together, folding one strand over and pulling the twist taut, all the way until the last of the strands. This makes the natural hair blend into the extension and looks completely natural. It also prevents the twists from looking messy once your hair starts growing out again. This video demonstrates the Invisible Twist method and it's easy to follow.
Maintenance & Care
To protect your 'do while you sleep, wrap your hair in a satin bonnet in a ponytail or sleep on a satin pillowcase.
When caring for your hair, don't worry about the extensions; just focus on the scalp to ensure your natural hair is healthy. Use an apple cider vinegar and water rinse or a dry shampoo (Lowery recommends Taliah Waajid Moisture Clenz"> only when necessary, and apply it by rubbing it on your scalp with a cotton swab or ball.
Rub in hair oils and butters using the same technique as the cleanser to keep your scalp hydrated, strong, and healthy.
Don't keep your twists for six or eight months until it starts looking like dreadlocks as it grows out. "Weave" goodbye to your hair twists after about three months. That is, unless dreadlocks happen to be your next hairstyle.
Photos courtesy of Fingercomber.com and Tabitha Lowery

subset: commoncrawl


text:
Asbestos Removal in Cuyahoga Heights, Ohio
Are you looking for a contractor to remove asbestos from a Cuyahoga Heights Ohio house or commercial property? Because of the well-documented health hazards associated with asbestos exposure, it has been banned from use in construction of buildings and insulation by the EPA. While this material hasn't been used in most materials for decades, it is still found in houses and office buildings that were constructed between 1930 and 1970. It wasn't until 1975 that the EPA prohibited pipe and asbestos block insulation as part of the Clean Air Act*. If suspect that you have asbestos in your home or office and are concerned that is is degrading or has been compromised, trust BBH Restoration, Cuyahoga Heights' asbestos removal professionals. With years of experience, BBH Restoration has successfully removed asbestos from many buildings, resulting in safer living and working environments for residents and employees. Call for a consultation.
Call For FREE Quote
How Asbestos Removal in Cuyahoga Heights Works
Asbestos removal by BBH Restoration is a multi-step process, regulated by EPA best practices and carried out by certified Cuyahoga Heights asbestos abatement teams. Our mission is to quickly and effectively make your home or commercial building safe and improve the indoor air quality. When you partner with us by calling , our asbestos removal process is guaranteed:
- Call and schedule a test for asbestos presence and determine areas affected and integrity of the materials
- If asbestos is detected, we'll create a plan to remove the material safely and quickly
- Receive a comprehensive quote of cost of labor and materials for asbestos abatement in Cuyahoga Heights
- Using commercial abatement equipment, our team will remove the asbestos from the areas of your home without leaving toxic residue behind
- Once removal is complete, we'll double-check the area to ensure there are no additional signs of asbestos throughout the property
Why Choose BBH Restoration for Cuyahoga Heights Asbestos Removal?
Asbestos removal of Cuyahoga Heights buildings is not something you want to tackle by yourself. If requires the work of a skilled and certified asbestos removal contractor, such as BBH Restoration. But it's not just our expertise that make us a valuable asset to your asbestos removal needs:
- Service: We understand the risk involved with asbestos, so our team provides high-quality service to ensure you have a comfortable relationship with both our sales and technical staff
- Experience: Our company has been in business since 2019, and we've had the opportunity to remove asbestos from many homes, commercial structures and offices and continue to expand upon our experience every day
- Affordability: Dealing with asbestos is already a nuisance, and figuring out how to pay for it shouldn't be. We provide all our asbestos removal services at affordable prices to ensure you can have a safe living environment without breaking the bank.
- Safety: Dealing with asbestos is risky, and our team uses our knowledge of best practices and equipment to safely remove the asbestos from your property while leaving you with a safe environment
- Communication: You should never be out of the loop when things are happening in your home or office, and BBH Restoration makes it a point to provide open communication with you every step of the way
*For more information about asbestos-containing products banned by the EPA, see this article: https://www.epa.gov/asbestos/us-federal-bans-asbestos
Call for FREE Asbestos Removal Quote
Reach Us
Call for Fast FREE Quote
1541 W Wallings Rd. Broadview Heights, Ohio 44147


text:
Pettie Belle chillies, as it is called in Africa or Bell Pepper in various other parts of the world, is a necessary addition to various types of cuisine is across the world. It is a great addition to any kind of sauces, main courses as well as salads.
There are various types of new varieties that can be found from the various types of seeds and nurseries, which can include mini-bells and colored bells that you might be hard pressed to find in your grocery store. Even the farmers market would not help you to find such wonderful bell peppers.
However, you can easily grow such papers in your backyard, particularly in very little space. For example, you could grow them in your small container, and start harvesting them in order to create the best Pepper for your meals.
Pettie Belle Chili Cultivation
In case you would like to grow bell pepper of an exotic variety like the Pettie Belle, you have to secure the seed from nurseries of your choice. If it is late winter, then start the seeds indoors. You should choose an area that contains plenty of light and warmth, or you could set up halogen lights and add a heat mat under the seeding tray so as to create a small greenhouse.
You can then choose a large pea pot, or large coir which can be planted directly into the ground. The peppers can then be transplanted from the pots made out of plastic to that secure location without having the roots disturbed.
After that, fill up your pot with good and lose potting soil. Plant your seeds according to the depth recommended in the Internet or given in the plastic packet containing the seeds. Always keep the soil moist, but not filled with water.
After the seedlings emerge, always make sure that you can turn them regularly, do not allow the plant to get bent; keep changing the direction of the light.
When the time comes for you to plant the pepper outdoors, always make sure that you take them outside for an hour or so in order to harden them. After a few days, keep increasing the time of keeping the plant outside in the sun, until you feel that the plant has been acclimatized, and there is no chance of any sunburn happening to the plant.
Make sure that the place is watered uniformly, do not allow the soil to dry out, and make sure that there is no sitting water. If the soil is excessively dry, particularly in the hot and windy days, then there would be no fruits, and the flowers will not bloom.
After the first batch of flower blooms, release some fertilizer. This will help you to get the best possible outcome from the Pettie Belle plant.


text: Network Working Group R.T. Braden Request for Comments #368 UCLA/CCN NIC 11015 July 21, 1972 Categories: Obsoletes: Updates: COMMENTS ON "PROPOSED REMOTE JOB ENTRY PROTOCOL" Chuck Holland's draft proposal (RFC #360) is an excellent document, very complete and consistent. Since the final standard RJE protocol will be widely used on the Network, honing its definition now will save trouble and discontent later. Therefore, I will proceed to make a new suggestions and pick a few nits. 1. In my humble opinion, the command verb "BYE" is overly cute; I would find "QUIT" much less offensive 2. The "(pathname)" syntax (p.5) may need some reworking. It would be very desirable for all protocols or Network access programs to use the same syntax for selecting a host and socket and/or file name. (Note that the FTP documents use the term "pathname" in the more restricted sense of a local file system name.) a. The PORT construction seems very undesirable, since it depends upon a particular bit convention of TIP's. TIP's have bent Network protocols rather badly in the past, but surely we don't want to build their particular socket system into an official protocol. b. For convenience, it may be desirable to allow hex and octal socket numbers. c. There will probably be other hosts besides TIP's which will use the "(host-socket)" pathname, and some of them may want a transmission attribute other than "T". The proposed syntax should be changed to allow (attributes) in (host-socket) d. I see no reason to exclude attribute "TE", since the control characters cr, lf, and ff exist in EBCDIC as well as ASCII. e. There are many EBCDIC codes, and at least 2 ASCII's. The (code) construction needs expansion. [Page 1] 3. The syntax of OUT might reflect the fact that pathname is required only for (disp) of "(S)". 4. It may be desirable to distinguish syntactically (job-id) and job-file-id). For example, this would allow the command ABORT (job-file-id) to abort the job currently being transmitted, regardless of its id (this assumes that multiple jobs for a given user are sent sequentially). 5. The replies presented in the document are very good, but may need some elaboration. For example, the syntax error messages should be more specific. When the user enters: OUT=(H) UCLA91: NE/ARP998.WGW.TEST he would like the error message to indicate explicitly that the hostname is not valid, rather than merely being told there is something wrong with one of the parameters. 6. Experience with remote job entry to CCN via the Network has shown that the user wants a transmission status command, to find out how many records have been sent or received so far. The network bandwidth corresponds in order of magnitude to one page per second. The average output for jobs submitted to CCN from the Network has contained about 30 pages, so significant transmission delays are not unusual. It is important to add a command for this purpose. [ This RFC was put into machine readable form for entry ] [ into the online RFC archives by BBN Corp. under the ] [ direction of Alex McKenzie. 1/97 ] [Page 2]


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What Are Reflexes?
Have you ever wondered why your leg kicks when the doctor taps your knee with that little rubber hammer? It's because of your reflex.
What's a Reflex?
A reflex is an involuntary (say: in-VAHL-un-ter-ee), or automatic, action that your body does in response to something — without you even having to think about it. You don't decide to kick your leg, it just kicks. There are many types of reflexes and every healthy person has them. In fact, we're born with most of them.
Protective Reflexes
Reflexes protect your body from things that can harm it. For example, if you put your hand on a hot stove, a reflex causes you to immediately remove your hand before a "Hey, this is hot!" message even gets to your brain.
Other protective reflexes are blinking when something flies toward your eyes or raising your arm if a ball is thrown your way. Even coughing and sneezing are reflexes. They clear the airways of irritating things.
What's a DTR?
The reflex that the doctor checks by tapping your knee is called the patellar, or knee-jerk, reflex. It is also known as a deep tendon reflex (DTR) because the doctor is actually tapping on a tendon called the patellar (say: puh-TEL-ur) tendon. This tap stretches the tendon and the muscle in the thigh that connects to it. A message then gets sent to the spinal cord that the muscle has been stretched.
The spinal cord very quickly sends a message back to the muscle telling it to contract. The contraction of the muscle causes your lower leg to kick out. You might wonder why such a reflex exists. This type of reflex is important in keeping your balance. When you're standing up, gravity might cause your knee to bend slightly, and this could make you fall if you didn't have the protective DTR to straighten that knee and keep you standing upright.
A doctor often checks for DTRs to make sure that the nervous system is working properly. Aside from the knee, they also can be checked along the outside of the elbows, in the crooks of the arms, and at the wrists and ankles.
So the next time your doctor taps you with that little rubber hammer, say, "Hey doc, how are my DTRs?"


text:
"Page after page of amazement." —Publishers Weekly
Everyone's favorite wooden puppet may not be a real boy…but he just might be a real hero. When bloodthirsty monsters invade Pinocchio's hometown and kill his father Geppetto, Pinocchio discovers a new benefit to his magical nose: telling lies produces a never-ending supply of wooden stakes to combat the vampire hordes! Will Pinocchio be able to defeat these horrors, avenge his father, and save his friends? The critically acclaimed series begins here, as Van Jensen (Green Lantern Corps) and Dusty Higgins (Knights of the Living Dead) craft an addictive twist on the classic fairy tale.
A 128-page Top Shelf digital exclusive!