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We return in our study of God's Word to the third chapter of Luke, this marvelous gospel. Luke is such a great historian, such a great theologian. And, of course, on top of that he was inspired by God to write every word that he wrote. Luke gives us the record of the life and ministry of Jesus; but he gives us such a rich, rich look at it because he loads up all the background material. We're right in the middle of that in chapter 3 of Luke.
Luke has given us the flow of history from the birth of John, the great prophet, the greatest man who ever lived up until his time, so said Jesus as recorded in Matthew 11:11; followed by the birth of Jesus and all the great events that surrounded both the birth of John and particularly the birth of Jesus.
As you come into chapter 3, thirty years passed by; John is now launching his ministry. John, this great prophet, known as John the Baptist because of his baptizing ministry, he is the forerunner of Messiah. He is the herald who announces the Messiah is coming. He has two responsibilities really: One, to prepare the people for Messiah's arrival; two, to identify the Messiah to the people.
When John begins his ministry it is about six months before Jesus appears publicly. John is preaching. He's preaching a message, according to verse 3 of chapter 3, a message of repentance for the forgiveness of sins. If one is to have a relationship with God, if one is to receive the blessings the Messiah brings, sin must be forgiven. If one is to receive forgiveness, there must be repentance. The note of John's great preaching was repentance. That's how he prepared people for Messiah and His arrival. Simply stated, John's message is this, God will forgive your sins if you repent and then embrace the Messiah.
That is exactly what we preach today. It isn't any different. We preach that God will forgive all your sins if you will repent and embrace the Messiah, the Savior, Jesus Christ. But John has been concerned, as all true prophets are concerned, not only to preach the true gospel, not only to preach repentance and acknowledgement of Jesus Christ as Lord and Savior, but John has been very, very aware of the fact that there is much shallow repentance. He's very used to it because it's standard stuff in Israel. Really, hypocrisy was a way of life. They had mastered the art of intricate hypocrisy from the top down, from the religious leaders, the scribes and Pharisees, Sadducees, they...they had crafted hypocrisy into a fine art that filtered right down through the people. The whole nation was predominantly hypocritical. They were used to shallow repentance, superficial repentance. John, as are all other true prophets, is very much aware of the fact that that is the work of Satan; that Satan is primarily a religionist. He devotes his time and his effort to deceiving people about their spiritual condition through false religion. He is disguised, says Paul, by very, very clever, clever disguises. He appears himself... as himself an angel of light when in fact he is a demon of darkness. His ministers also disguise themselves as angels of light and they go about to do the work of shallow repentance and conversion. They are counterfeiters.
And that's how it was in Israel at the time of John. There was much shallow, superficial religion. And consequently John preached what I call hard truth, harsh, confrontive, unrelenting, penetrating, convicting because he understood how predominant this shallowness was. I'm convinced that all preachers should see that, particularly in an environment where Christianity has some kind of nominal influence. We should follow the pattern of John. He is really the proto-typical preacher for us, preaching the gospel in all its strength and all its glory and wonder but all its hardness as well, trying to penetrate through the shallowness and reach the depth of the real issues.
John was very aware of what the Bible is continually telling us, that many, many people repent on a shallow, non-saving level. For example, Jesus said there are people who say, "Lord, Lord, didn't we do this and didn't we do that in Your name?" And He says, "Depart from me you workers of iniquity, I never knew you," Matthew 7. Jesus described these kinds of people also in His sermon on the Second Coming in Matthew 25 as having the lamp of profession but without the oil of salvation. Titus chapter 1 and verse 16, they are described as those who profess to know God but in works they deny Him. In 2 Timothy 2:19 they name the name of Christ but they do not depart from iniquity. That's common. They name the name of Christ, they don't depart from iniquity. They say they know Him but they deny Him by what they do.
It's like the church at Sardis in Revelation 3, they have a name that they live, but in fact they are dead. They're like Simon Magus. Simon Magus, you remember, in the eighth chapter of Acts, came and followed the apostles and ostensibly, superficially repented and was baptized. It was so superficial that Peter said to him, "You're going to perish." Shallow repenters are very common. The scribes and Pharisees were very good at it. They sort of led the parade, they defined it.
Well John knew all of this. He knew what the apostle Paul experienced. Remember now, Paul was a Pharisee. Paul was a Hebrew of the Hebrews. That is, he was a traditionalist. He was an orthodox, hyper-orthodox. He was of the tribe of Benjamin. He was a Jew, which meant that he was in the framework of Abrahamic heritage. He was zealous concerning his religion to the point where he wanted to execute heretics. As far as externals were concerned, he could not be held guilty of any outward violation of the law of God. He fulfilled all of that and he came to the conclusion when he saw Christ that it was all manure; just another illustration of the intricacies of shallowness. Jesus said in Matthew 5:20 that if your righteousness doesn't exceed the righteousness of the scribes and Pharisees, you'll never enter the kingdom.
So, you see, there are many people like the Pharisees. They pray; they fast, they attend religious services. They attend religious ceremonies. And they're not converted. They talk about penitence but it's very shallow. They give alms to the poor. In some cases they might even give their bodies as martyrs, but they're not regenerate. It may be that on the surface and it's true today that there are people who are good at sort of binding up their visible corruption by...by refinement, by education, by self-discipline, by original, personal sort of convictions, or even by some level of religious illumination or partial reformation. They might even shake a little bit under the threat of judgment, like Felix, who trembled when the gospel was preached to him. But they're still shallow.
That is very common, and is particularly common in our environment today when the gospel has been reduced to such a minimalistic level, and much of the time is preached utterly without a call to repentance.
Well, in the words of Jesus all those kinds of people are building on sand and when judgment comes it's going to wash their religious house away. All these well-intentioned religious people are no better off than the most irreligious. Did you hear that? All these well-intentioned religious people are no better off than the irreligious and no better off than the profane who relish in all their iniquities to the max and flaunt their sin. These would-be religious people, these shallow repenters, are no better off. In fact they are worse off, they are worse off for the fiercest judgments of God, the fieriest elements of hell, the severest levels of punishment in eternal damnation are reserved for those who profess to believe in the true God and have been actually impenitent hypocrites.
John knew that. And any preacher who is faithful must realize that. And I told you a few weeks ago that even though all Judea and all Jerusalem was going out to hear John, huge crowds of people going out there, no doubt by the thousands to hear his message and be baptized and get ready for the Messiah, when all was said and done and Jesus came and lived for three years and taught and died on the cross and rose from the dead and went back to heaven, and all the believers were gathered in Jerusalem in an upper room, there were only 120 of them. So even with the strong preaching of John, even with every effort made possible to avoid shallow repentance and to shatter the illusions of superficiality, in the end it is still a major problem. And how much more severe a problem it is when we don't preach the strong gospel as John preached it.
He knew all the falsities of Jewish religion. He knew all of the tricks of the human heart, all of its hypocrisies, all of its self-righteousness. So he confronted shallow repentance and called for the real thing. And as we started in verse 4 and have moved on through all the way down to verse 17 in this section, we've been looking at the essence of true repentance. John wasn't going to be guilty of not preaching the true message of repentance. And we've already given you the points that define that.
First of all, true repentance is marked by a reflection on personal sin. We saw that in verse 5. "Every ravine has to be filled up, every mountain and hill be brought down, the crooked become straight and the rough roads smooth." That's a...an analogy of what has to happen in the human heart. If God is going to come to the human heart, a highway is going to be made, a highway of forgiveness into your heart, it is a highway of repentance. And that means the deep and secret, dark and base things of the life have to be brought up; and the high and lofty elements of pride and self-righteousness brought down; and the devious, deceitful and crooked and perverse patterns of life straightened out, and all the other sinful clutter taken off the road so that a smooth highway is made for God to bring His forgiveness. One has to deal with the breadth and length and height and depth of sin in his own life, even to the degree where he's willing to confess himself as these Jews had to as no better than a Gentile, needing what essentially was a Gentile, proselyte baptism. Here they were as Jews having to confess they were no better off than an uncircumcised Gentile as far as God was concerned because they were still in a condition of unforgiveness. So there had to be a reflection of personal sin.
Secondly, there needed to be a...a recognition of divine wrath. John at the end of verse 7 preached the wrath to come. And that is absolutely critical. Any faithful preacher preaches on hell. He preaches on fiery, eternal judgment because why bother to come to Christ for the forgiveness of sin if you're not going to, by that coming, escape eternal wrath? There must be a recognition of divine wrath to elicit a true repentance.
Thirdly, there must be a rejection of religious ritual. Remember I told you John says to them, "You know, you're scrambling down here like snakes, you haven't changed your nature, you're still snakes. You're still subtle and devious snakes. All you're doing is scrambling like vipers in front of a prairie fire. You're trying to get to the water." It's a very, very clear analogy. Like snakes would run before a brush fire to get to the water to save their lives, he sees the Pharisees and the scribes, in particular, but the rest of the crowd as well, not wanting their nature changed but in their vile identification with the ultimate serpent, Satan, they're just scrambling to avoid wrath through John's baptism. Very shallow and superficial and he says to them, "I didn't tell you to do that. I didn't tell you you could escape the eternal judgment of God simply by getting dunked in the Jordan River." You have to reject any religious ritual. That's not what's going to save you, that is only an outward symbol of a heart work.
Fourthly, true repenters reflect on personal sin, recognize divine wrath, reject religious ritual and, fourthly, there is a renunciation of ancestry. A lot of people think they're going to get into God's kingdom because of their parents or grandparents, and certainly the Jews felt that way down in verse 8. He says, "Don't begin saying to yourselves we have Abraham for our father, because I'm telling you God can make children of Abraham out of rocks." That's nothing special. That's not going to save you. What you got from Abraham was a sin nature. Yes, you got covenant promise. Yes, you got some wonderful promises and blessings. You'll never know any of the fulfilment of those unless your sin is dealt with. And being a child of Abraham doesn't save you from your sin. You have to reject that ancestral view. Just because you were a part of a family that had religious heritage has nothing to do with your personal salvation.
And then fifthly, not only a reflection of personal sin and divine wrath and rejection of religious ritual and ancestry, but fifthly, true repenters demonstrate a revelation of spiritual transformation. He says in verse 8, "Bring forth fruits in keeping with repentance." In other words, if this is real repentance, I'm going to look at your life and see the evidence. If it's the real thing then God is changing you and you're going to be a new creation, you're going to be a different person."
Listen, the new creation isn't reserved for the New Testament; that was always the case. When anybody was a true repenter, when anybody came to God and confessed sin, anybody in the Old Testament era or any time comes to God, truly repents, truly is forgiven, they are changed. They are transformed and it is manifest in their lives by how they live. And we discussed the details of that in verses 9 through 14, how that practically works out.
That's the essence of repentance. That's what true repenters do. They deal with their personal sin in a...in a full sense. They understand divine wrath. They reject religious ritual and ancestry. And they give evidence of the genuineness of the work of God in that true repentance by the fruit of their life. That leads us to the final point here. I started into it last week. We'll finish it this morning.
Where there is true repentance there is also a reception of the true Messiah, that's number six, a reception of the true Messiah. You know you could go through all of that repentance and fall short if you didn't embrace the true Messiah. Acts 4:12: "Neither is there salvation in any other name. There is no other name given among men whereby we must be saved." Heaven has given no other name. John 1:12 says, "As many as received Him, He gave the right to be called the children of God."
I went back this week again just to check in my mind was I right, that article in Christianity Today, where there was a statement on salvation made. And the person who wrote the statement, an excellent statement, was asked by the editors of the magazine, "Don't you think you're being too narrow when you say that in order for someone to be saved they have to have an intellectual knowledge of Jesus Christ?" I thought, "Maybe I missed that." But that's what it said. The idea that somehow you could be saved apart from the knowledge of Jesus Christ is heresy. It's a sad lie. John says in verses 15 to 17, there's one coming, He's mightier than I, He's the one you've got to look to. Don't look to me, verse 15, "The people were in a state of expectation, they were wondering in their hearts about John as to whether he might be the Christ." Remember, he never claimed that, never. He never claimed that. His followers never claimed that. They never claimed that he was the Messiah. He never claimed that he was the Messiah.
That's indicated in chapter 19 of Acts. It tells us Paul was passing through the upper country and he came to Ephesus and he found some disciples. Interesting, he's in Gentile area, he finds some disciples and he says to them, "Did you receive the Holy Spirit when you believed?" They said to him, "No, we have not even heard whether the Holy Spirit has come." They had heard of the Holy Spirit, all Jews knew of the Holy Spirit, of course. But they hadn't heard whether the Holy Spirit had come in the way that had been promised. And he said to them, Paul did, "Well then in what...what baptism were you baptized?" And they said, "Oh, into John's baptism." These were disciples of John from way back who had never yet heard about the Messiah. They had been baptized down there in the Jordan River at the time that John was doing his baptism. Wandered back off into the Gentile world, they never knew about the Messiah. And he said then, "John baptized with the baptism of repentance," Paul said, "telling the people to believe in Him who was coming after him, that is in Jesus." Just point that out to you because I want you to know that's exactly what John said. He never told anybody to believe in him as Messiah. Paul says he told people to believe in the One that was coming after him, even Jesus.
And that's the way it was from the beginning. When Gabriel told Zacharias, the father of John, he was going to have a son he said his son would announce the coming of Messiah. That's what John knew from the very time the angel gave the message. That's always what he knew and that's always what he preached. He was not that light, John 1 says, but was sent to bear witness of that light. He knew that. He knew that. And he makes that very clear because he knows that question is in people's mind. In verse 16 he answered and said to them all: "As for me, I baptize you with water but One is coming who is mightier than I and I am not fit to untie the thong of His sandals. He will baptize you with the Holy Spirit and fire." John says, don't get us confused, folks, we are worlds apart. We are worlds apart. I can baptize you with water, that's all I can do. I can take you down here into the Jordan River and I can dunk you, and that is not very special, anybody can do that, you could do that, I could do that, anybody could do that. That is not a supernatural act. That is not some kind of act of great power. That is just a plain old human act. You can take somebody in water and baptize them. John says I can do that. But literally in the Greek with a definite article, "The coming One," and again I say that is a technical title for Messiah, "The coming One, the coming One," that's how the Jews knew Him as the coming One, "who is mightier than I." In the 11th chapter of Luke and verses 21 and 22 He is called the stronger One, the coming One, the stronger One, the Messiah. "I'm not even fit," John says, "to untie the thong of His sandals." And I told you last time that task of taking somebody's sandals off and washing their feet was so low on the service ladder that you couldn't get lower than having to do that job and it was a job usually assigned to a Gentile because it was beneath the dignity of a Jew to do it. John says I'm not even fit to climb up to the point where I could tie...untie His sandals. I don't even belong with Him. I'm not even near Him. I'm not even fit to go up and do the lowliest, most despised duty. We're so far apart. We are in two different worlds. We are so far apart.
The reason we're so far apart is clear. "I baptize with water," end of verse 16, "He will baptize you with the Holy Spirit and fire." That is a great statement filled with tremendous profound truth. John says, look, I can immerse you in this Jordan River, I can do that. Anybody can do that. What I can't do is immerse you in the Holy Spirit or immerse you in fire. I can do a human thing but I can't do a divine thing.
What he's saying here is the One who is coming, the coming One, the stronger One, the mightier One, the One I'm not even worthy to untie His sandals, that One will do things that only God can do. Only God can immerse you in the Holy Spirit. Only God can immerse you in fire. John is pointing out the deity of the Messiah. John is saying, I don't have the power to save you and I don't have the power to damn you. I don't have the power to immerse you in the Holy Spirit. And I don't have the power to immerse you in hell. That's not my power.
The Jews understood this. You notice there's not a big explanation about this because the Jews knew that when Messiah came He was going to be a dividing line. They knew that because the prophets said that over and over in the Old Testament. The coming of the Messiah was a two-edged sword, believe me. When the Messiah came there would be blessing. And when the Messiah came there would be salvation. And when the Messiah came there would be the kingdom. But when the Messiah came there would be judgment and there would be death and there would be burning.
You see, the Jews knew about the New Covenant. And I'll just give you the quick little summary. When God was giving covenants to Israel, He gave them promises in those covenants. The ones that are important for us to know are the promises He gave to Abraham. They understood that God promised to Abraham that He would bless this people if they were faithful, if they would be His witness nation. It wasn't that He wanted only to bless them. He wanted to bless the whole world through them. But if they would be faithful He would bless them. And all that blessing is laid out to Abraham and to Isaac and Jacob. And then He made promises to David that He would bless them with a kingdom that would stretch over the whole earth. And they wanted those blessings. The Jewish people wanted those blessings.
But God gave them another covenant called the Sinaitic Covenant, the one made on Mount Sinai, or the Mosaic Covenant made with Moses. That was the covenant of law. In order for you to be blessed you've got to keep the law. Well they couldn't keep the law and so all the law did was damn them and cut off the promises of Abraham and the promises of David from them. So here they were caught in that situation. God made promises. They couldn't attain to those promises because they couldn't attain to the standard of holiness God required which was perfection and they were crushed under the Mosaic Law, they were crushed under the inability to keep God's law. So God had to introduce another covenant, that other covenant was called the New Covenant. It was the covenant they needed. It was the covenant of forgiveness. And when you read New Covenant passages, whether you're reading Ezekiel 36:25 to 27, or whether you're reading Jeremiah 31:31 to 34 you find in the New Covenant, God says I'm going to give you a New Covenant and in there is the forgiveness of sins. God's going to forgive your sins. If you'll come to Him and ask and repent, He'll forgive your sins and He'll make a New Covenant and once you come through the New Covenant, then you can have the promises to Abraham and you can have the promises to David fulfilled.
So they knew the New Covenant. They knew it because the prophets wrote about it. But they also knew this: That in the New Covenant was the giving of the Holy Spirit. You see, in the New Covenant it says in Ezekiel 36:25 that God's going to put His Spirit within you. And they knew that when a person was really converted, when a person was genuinely forgiven, even in Old Testament times, God's Holy Spirit took up residence in that person. They knew that. Did you think that only people in the church age received the Holy Spirit? Not so. Why do you think I read this morning in Psalm 51:11, David said, "Don't take Your Holy Spirit from me." He had sinned so greatly that he was fearful that he had gone too far and God would reject him. Don't take Your Holy Spirit from me.
They understood the role of the Holy Spirit. They understood the Holy Spirit's role in creation. They understood the Holy Spirit's role in the life of a believer to take up residence, that God in the New Covenant would plant His Spirit. Now remember, folks, the New Covenant wasn't ratified officially until Jesus died, but was in place and operative through all of redemptive history. God forgave those people who repented and asked Him to forgive them on the basis of what Christ would do because in the mind of God it was already done because God lives in one eternal present and that's why God calls Jesus the Lamb slain from before the foundation of the world. So they were... all people who were ever saved were saved by the New Covenant terms. And in the New Covenant, according to Ezekiel 36, God's Spirit is planted in believers. So they were knowing that when the Messiah comes, He's going to come, He's going to bring the blessing of the New Covenant, and He's going to bring the Holy Spirit. The Holy Spirit is going to be not only planted in us, but the prophet Joel said when the Messiah comes and sets up His kingdom, the Holy Spirit is going to do some amazing things. There's going to be a mighty explosion of the work of the Holy Spirit. So they associated the coming of Messiah with the Holy Spirit.
Isaiah 37:14: "I'll put my Spirit within you and then you will come to life." So, they understood that. When the Messiah comes the Holy Spirit is going to come and He's going to pour out the Holy Spirit. Joel says He's going to pour out His Holy Spirit. They also knew that the Messiah would have the Holy Spirit in a unique way on Him. Isaiah 11 associates the Messiah with the seven-fold Holy Spirit. Isaiah 42:1 associates the Messiah with the Holy Spirit. Isaiah 61:1 associates the Holy Spirit with the Messiah. So when the Messiah comes He's going to come with the attendant power of the Holy Spirit, He's going to bring the Holy Spirit and He's going to grant the Holy Spirit to those who believe. He's going to pour out His Spirit, Joel 2:28 and 29, in fact He's going to pour out His Spirit beyond Israel on all flesh.
So they associated the coming of the Messiah with salvation and salvation in New Covenant terminology meant the granting of the Holy Spirit. So John says, look, when He comes He's going to come and immerse you in the Holy Spirit. They would understand that. Oh, New Covenant blessing, this means that the Messiah is going to come, bring the Holy Spirit. He's going to give us that New Covenant salvation. And we're going to be immersed into the Holy Spirit. They understood that. And that's why on the day of Pentecost when Peter stood up to preach, Acts 2:38, he said, "Repent, repent, receive the forgiveness of sins and you shall also receive the Holy Spirit." You see, nobody is converted, nobody is saved, nobody is forgiven, nobody is transformed by some human act. When a sinner is truly repentant and comes to God in a broken and contrite spirit and asks for forgiveness and God forgives and transforms, it is the working of the Holy Spirit. So in the Old Testament and the New Testament alike it was the Holy Spirit that brought about that wonderful work of regeneration.
Now you say, "What's the difference now and then?" The only difference is in some...some degree, there's some quantitative work of the Holy Spirit in the church that's in some sense different or some qualitative work of the Spirit that's in some sense different than it was in the Old Testament, but it's the same Holy Spirit. He has been with you, Jesus said, all along. In the future, in the time after the church He shall be in you. I don't know the details of what that means. It's a new dimension of the Holy Spirit which we enjoy. But they were not at all without the Holy Spirit since He is essential in the New Covenant. "I'll plant My Spirit within you."
So, what John is offering them is this, the Messiah is way beyond me because He dispenses the Holy Spirit. I can't do that. I can't do that. No man can do that. Secondly, He's greater than me because He's going to bring fire.
Now if the Jews heard the word "fire" in connection with Messiah, they had plenty of Old Testament scriptures to pop into their minds. Many, many times in the Old Testament "fire" is associated with judgment. And I'm not going to take the time this morning to give you all those scriptures. But, for example, and there are many, many of them, Isaiah 29:6, "From the Lord of hosts you will be punished with thunder and earthquake and loud noise, with whirlwind and tempest and the flame of a consuming fire." That's just one of many. That's Isaiah 29:6. You can see it in Isaiah 31:9, Ezekiel 38:22, Amos 7:4, Zephaniah 1:18, Zephaniah 3:8, Daniel 7:10, God's final judgment is associated with fire.
But for a moment, look at the last book again of the Old Testament, Malachi. Malachi 3, and here we're in the context of John's ministry because Malachi 3:1 is a prophecy about John. "I'm going to send My messenger, he'll clear the way before Me." God says I'm coming. Again this indicates that the Messiah was in fact God incarnate. I'm going to come and I'm going to send My messenger to clear the way. That was what John did, he was the voice of one crying in the wilderness, clearing the way for the coming of Messiah. I'm going to send John before Me and then "the Lord whom you seek will suddenly come to His temple. And the messenger of the covenant in whom you delight, behold, he is coming." So, He's coming, He's coming, the coming One, that's where they got that term for Messiah, the coming One, but before the coming One is going to be the messenger who announces His coming, so that's John. And when He comes, verse 2, "Who can endure the day of His coming? Who can stand when He appears, for He is like a refiner's fire?" When He comes He's going to come to bring the Holy Spirit. But He's also going to come to bring fire.
Go over to chapter 4 verse 1, "Behold the day is coming," it's that same day when He comes, "burning like a furnace and all the arrogant and every evil doer will be chaff and the day that is coming will set them ablaze," says the Lord of hosts, "so that it will leave them neither root nor branch." So when the Messiah comes, the coming One arrives, it's going to be a day like a furnace that's going to consume everything. "But," verse 2, "for those who fear My name, the Sun of Righteousness will rise with healing in His beams." You're not going to be burned, you're going to go forth and skip about like calves from the stall and you're going to tread down the wicked and they're going to be ashes unto the souls of your feet on the day which I am preparing, says the Lord of hosts. Boy, what a frightening thing.
So when the Messiah comes there's going to be a forerunner, according to Malachi 3. Then the Messiah is going to come and He's going to come in fiery, blazing judgment that's going to consume the ungodly and turn them into ashes. And He's going to save those who belong to Him and that's all John is saying. When the Messiah comes, He's going to do the supernatural work. He's going to immerse some with the Holy Spirit. He's going to immerse the rest in fire. Fire is in Luke's gospel frequently a metaphor for judgment. For example, in Luke 9:54, His disciples James and John come to Jesus and said, "Lord, do you want us to command fire to come down from heaven and consume them?" Well at that point Jesus rebuked them for saying that but they understood that associated with Messiah was the consuming fire of judgment on those who dishonored God. In Luke 12:49 Jesus said, "I have come to cast fire upon the earth." Wow. "And how I wish it were already kindled." What a statement. Jesus came to burn people up.
In the 17th chapter of Luke and verse 29 we're reminded that fire went out from God, fell on Sodom and Gomorrah and destroyed everybody.
So Luke touches on the fire of judgment in his gospel. Obviously the book of Revelation, chapter 19 verse 11, describes fire when Christ comes. But maybe the strongest word comes from 2 Thessalonians 1:7 when the Lord Jesus shall be revealed from heaven with His mighty angels in flaming fire, dealing out retribution to those who do not know God, those who do not obey the gospel of our Lord Jesus.
See, when Messiah comes He comes to separate. John had a work of separation. His baptism separated, but it only separated visually, or superficially. There were the baptized and the non-baptized. But when Messiah comes, His separation it is a...it is at a supernatural level. He will separate those who are immersed in the Holy Spirit, who received promises made to Abraham and David, who receive all the blessings of salvation, who receive the Holy Spirit and eternal life; and on the other hand, those who are going to be burned eternally in everlasting hell. Messiah is a divider.
Now the principle given at the end of verse 16 is illustrated in verse 17 by just a simple but graphic illustration that is reminiscent of the language of Malachi 4 that I just read you. Verse 17, here John and his preaching illustrated the principle of baptism with the Holy Spirit and with fire. It's like a...a winnowing process. "And His winnowing fork is in His hand to thoroughly clear His threshing floor, and to gather the wheat into His barn, so He will burn up the chaff with unquenchable fire."
Now here's the imagery, very interesting. This separation the Messiah is going to do can be illustrated by an agrarian illustration very familiar to the Jewish people because grain was grown in all the lowlands of Israel, and is still in many places there today. When all the grain was gathered, it was brought into a flat, hard floor and there were winnowing shovels, really, a winnowing shovel, a large, flat shovel that was thrust under a pile of this grain and then thrown in the air. And the breeze would then blow the lighter chaff, or straw, away from the grain and the grain being heavy would fall straight down. So it depended upon the way the wind was blowing. At the end of that process when the entire floor had been picked up and thrown into the air, all the grain would be piled in the middle and the chaff would be lying on the perimeter. Therefore the separation was complete. And when the separation was done, the wheat would be taken to the barn, and the chaff would be burned with fire.
This is not a new illustration, by the way. Psalm 1 verse 4. "The wicked are like the chaff which the wind drives away." Jeremiah 15 verses 5 to 7, exactly the same illustration. The ungodly again are like chaff. So here you have the picture. When Messiah comes everybody will be dealt with.
And I want to point something out to you in verse 17. You see that verb "to thoroughly clear, "to thoroughly clear," that's very interesting in the Greek. That is a verb diakathair. That's what we call a hapax legomena in the Greek, which means it's the only time in the New Testament this word is used. It's a very...it's a very unusual word, and it is a rare word, this being its only usage. What it means is no traces are left, nothing is left. Everything is dealt with. The separation is complete. That is to say nobody is left out. The separation will take place completely. You either fall in the pile of grain, or the pile of chaff. You are either barned with the grain, which means you go into the glories of heaven, or burned with the chaff which means you go into the terrors of hell.
This is strong preaching, isn't it, by John. I wish you'd all pray that God would raise up more preachers like John. You don't want to be without love or without compassion, but you need to preach the truth with boldness, courage and conviction because the sinners need to know what they're dealing with. Everybody will be dealt with. Thoroughly that threshing floor will be cleared. Everyone will be dealt with. And there are only two piles, the barned and the burned.
Would you notice an interesting word in verse 17, "unquenchable." With the word "unquenchable" you move from the analogy to the reality. The fact is that the fire that burned the chaff eventually went out. When all the chaff was consumed and there was nothing left to fuel it, the fire went out. But the fire that John is talking about and the fire that Messiah brings is a fire that never goes out. That introduces to us for the first time eternal hell. Oh, I mean the first time in Luke, not the first time, because even the Old Testament talks about it. Job chapter 20 verse 26; you can read for yourself Isaiah 34 verses 8 to 10, talks about God's judgment and a fire that never goes out. Isaiah 66 and verse 24, the last statement in Isaiah, "Those who have transgressed against Me, their worm shall not die, their fire shall not be quenched." And Jesus quotes that in the New Testament, the unquenchable fire. Isaiah talked about, the Jews knew, Messiah would judge with an eternal fire. Hell is an eternal time of punishment, really an eternal and timeless experience of punishment. Jesus picked up this message. Jesus said more about hell than He did about heaven. The apostles preached it in the epistles. The book of Revelation speaks of it.
So John's preaching was very straightforward. He called people to true repentance and he called them to turn and acknowledge the true Messiah. And the One who was greater than John, so much greater because all John could do was a human, physical ceremony, but the Messiah could immerse people in the Holy Spirit. Or on the other hand, he would immerse them in eternal fire. You have to acknowledge Him as God, therefore. This is a statement of the deity of Christ. This is a monumental statement of the deity of Christ. Jesus is going to do what only God can do, save people and damn people, glorify people and punish people. This is the standard, beloved, for all gospel preaching. It's a call to repentance and an acknowledgement that Jesus is the great divider who either saves or damns.
So, repentance means you come to an honest understanding of your own personal sin. You recognize divine wrath. You reject ritual and ancestry. You demonstrate transformation in the fruit of true repentance. And you receive the true Messiah, the Lord Jesus Christ.
And, you know, it does weigh heavy on my heart that there are so many people who call themselves Christians today who have no understanding of this and they're engaged in a false repentance, shallow, non-saving repentance. Let me give you a final warning about that regarding false repentance. False repentance is grounded in selfishness, rather than the honor of God, because it has nothing to do with the honor of God, and only has to do with the regret that a person has because of the consequence of sin. It's not built on the fear of hell, or the fear of dishonoring God. False repentance also leaves the feelings unchanged. The love of sin is not subdued and the passion for holiness is not initiated. False repentance leads men to hypocritical concealment. Once you've falsely repented, now you've got to keep it up. And so you just lay on one more level of hypocrisy after another to keep up the deception. That leads eventually to self-deception and to a deadly false security where you begin to believe the lie you're living that you wanted originally others to believe and now you've come to believe it, and that is that you really are God's when in fact you're not. And that hardens your heart. Each time shallow sorrow washes over the emotions of the heart, and doesn't truly break that heart, the fountains of feeling are more and more dried up. And then the conscience is seared and then you're irretrievable.
John understood this. We need to understand this and call people as we would call you today to a true repentance.
Father, we thank You again for the clarity of Your Word. We would pray, first of all, that You would raise up many faithful preachers. We think of these 300 plus young men at the Master's Seminary. First of all, Lord, would you raise up a mighty force of men from that place who preach with the boldness, the power, the conviction, the clarity of John. May he rise even in our generation to become the model of a real, true preacher, not the surfeited, self-centered and shallow examples that so many follow today. And, Father, would You as well work by the mighty work of the Spirit of God in the hearts of those who are caught up on shallow repentance, who to some degree have followed a certain regret grounded in their own selfishness because of the consequence of sin, who have not had their feelings changed, not had the love of sin subdued, who are to one degree or another hypocrites piling on more cover-up, more sin, leading to deadly false security and actually hardening the heart, searing the conscience. Lord, before it gets that far, break through that false repentance and work a true work that will produce the fruit of repentance in changed life to Your glory. And we thank You, Father, for this forgiveness which is ours when the repentance is genuine and the faith is real and placed in the one and only Savior, our Lord Jesus Christ, in whose name we pray. Amen.
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text:
Website Detail Page
published by
the Exploratorium
written by Ron Hipschman
Visit this Exploratorium for directions to make a scale model of the Solar System and gain a sense of the relative sizes of the sun and planets. You choose the diameter of the sun, and the site calculates the diameters of the planets and their distances. Also, you'll find links to many solar-system-related sites.
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Title = {Build a Solar System},
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Grey Bottle Tee (Crew-Neck / Unisex)
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The Third Place Cocktail Co. makes all of its products on a magically little island in the north Atlantic called Newfoundland. We love it here but sometimes it takes a little while longer for things to get to and from this little place so please be patient. We are committed to not making money on shipping costs so here is what we have decided to do. We will charge a flat rate shipping of $15 dollars on orders of up to 4 bottles shipping within Canada. Orders of more than that and orders outside Canada will be charged based on what the actual shipping costs are.


text:
At a Glance
- Consumers and industries are adopting innovations at a much faster pace than years ago.
- Anticipating important innovations ahead of the competition can significantly increase growth and shareholder value.
- Four forecasting tools used in combination are more effective than any one alone at predicting the tipping point for new technologies.
- Leading companies have started using this approach to win first-mover advantage.
It's not easy to peer into the future and spot emerging technologies or innovations that could reshape an entire industry. But what if some companies could see around the corner better than others? For executive teams and boards of directors, the ability to predict if, and how fast, new technologies will take off would be invaluable.
A handful of utilities and oil and gas companies, for example, realized that fracking technology would disrupt the industry long before analysts and the rest of the world started talking about that shift. They were watching for a critical signal that fracking would become financially viable, and it came in 2007, three years ahead of the shale gas boom. Anticipating a pivotal shift in the market, these companies positioned themselves to take advantage of the shale revolution.
New technologies often prompt a vision of sweeping change long before we know if they are viable, or how many years it will take to bring them to market. Scientists, economists and other experts foresee robots taking over jobs in service industries; genetic engineering revolutionizing agriculture; lab-grown meat supplanting the animal protein industry; autonomous vehicles becoming the new mode of transportation, with fleets of driverless cars replacing individual vehicle ownership and eliminating millions of truck driving jobs; and the Internet of Things revolutionizing manufacturing. Each of these innovations looks capable of dramatically altering whole industries. And some technologies, such as those that create platforms, can disrupt markets far beyond traditional industry boundaries.
So it's a rare executive or board that hasn't struggled with the question of when to bet on new technologies. Consumers and industries adopt innovations at a much faster pace today than years ago, and expert forecasts often fall short. In 2017, the price of battery packs for electric vehicles, for example, fell under the level analysts had previously forecast for 2020 (see Figure 1).
Electric vehicle battery pack costs are declining so rapidly that analysts' forecasts cannot keep up
Companies that fail to anticipate or adapt to new technologies risk being blindsided by a sudden shift in market perceptions and falling valuations. The reason: Investors react faster than consumers to potential disruption. In the four years following Apple's release of the iPhone in 2007, BlackBerry producer Research in Motion lost 90% of its market valuation, even though revenues more than tripled over the same period.
By contrast, leadership teams that take a more analytical approach to what's coming around the tech bend gain a first-mover advantage. The ability to react even a few months ahead of the competition can be worth millions or billions of dollars. In the shared mobility sector, Uber secured a strong lead by being first to market and three years ahead of No. 2 Lyft. In 2018 Uber had $50 billion in bookings compared with $8 billion for Lyft. As of this writing, Uber's valuation of around $70 billion is nearly three times higher than Lyft's IPO value.
Netflix won a similar first-mover advantage when it launched video-on-demand service in 2007. By rapidly anticipating consumer demand for Internet-based streaming of movies, Netflix not only precipitated the demise of Blockbuster, which at that point had a market capitalization of $1.5 billion, but also beat rival Hulu to the market by a year. Today Netflix has a valuation roughly 10 times greater than Hulu's, demonstrating just how valuable it can be to be first to market when responding to disruptive trends.
Predicting tipping points: A new approach
For decades, company leaders, heads of strategy, technology development groups and other industry experts have deployed different forecasting tools and economic models to gain an edge in predicting change. Each tool is useful in specific settings, providing companies with insights that helped guide strategic actions or investments—and each has its limitations. What's been interesting over the years is the way successive tools filled in some of the gaps. There is no crystal ball, but we've seen some patterns recently that point to an intriguing and provocative question: Could combining some of these tools result in a sum that is greater than the parts? Would an artful blending of insights give leadership teams a jump on the competition in adjusting strategy?
In our experience, four forecasting tools, used together, can help predict whether a new technology will take off, when the tipping point will arrive and what the speed of market adoption will be. The four are: experience curves (e-curves), which show how unit costs decline relative to increased production volume; Elements of Value® analysis, to identify attributes customers value most in a product, such as reduced cost or saving time; adoption curves (s-curves), which forecast the likely pace of adoption and saturation point; and analysis of barriers and accelerators, such as government policy, technology or consumer attitudes that could slow or speed the arrival and penetration of an innovation.
It may sound complex, but tipping points analysis is a logical set of steps that can build a fuller picture of the future, much like putting together the pieces of a puzzle. The leadership teams that have used this combination of lenses know that it won't produce an algorithm to predict the exact timing or speed of the next disruption. What it does provide is a set of insights around which executive teams can construct the most likely scenarios, understand the variables that matter most, and monitor them to help decide when to act. Leading companies have used these tools to anticipate important innovations as much as three years ahead of widespread market adoption, significantly increasing growth and shareholder value.
Let's walk through the sequence of events that convinced us to combine these four tools into the tipping points model instead of using them in isolation.
The experience curve
Historically, industries have used experience curves (e-curves), to understand the pace at which production costs will fall. Specifically, e-curves plot the learning rate for bringing down the cost of production. The slope of the curve shows how unit cost declines as production experience grows.
Leadership teams rely on e-curves to set targets for cost reduction over time—and to predict when the cost of new technologies is likely to decline to a level that unleashes consumer demand. For example, Moore's Law is an approximation of the experience curve for computer processing power and cost. Using it, companies have set targets for what their products will have to cost to compete in the future.
Over the years, we have found the e-curve to be a powerful tool. Rational consumers are likely to adopt a new innovation when the price matches their perception of value. So companies track the declining cost of production to anticipate the moment when market demand will take off. The tipping point is the threshold price at which people decide to switch to an innovative new product.
The alternative approach—classic cost-modeling methodology—takes a more simplistic view of cost movements. As a result, it often fails to predict accurately the speed at which costs decline. E-curves, which include the effect of accumulated production experience, economies of scale and technological advancements, are a more useful tool in forecasting when a new innovation will reach cost parity with an existing product.
Take the case of electric vehicles. At present, the price of electric vehicles is prohibitive for most consumers largely because of the high cost of lithium-ion battery packs. So the battery pack e-curve offers valuable insights about when the market could reach a tipping point for mass consumer adoption of electric vehicles.
Experts believe demand will take off when the cost to produce an electric car and an internal combustion vehicle are the same. That would require the price of battery packs to fall to about $100 per kWh or less. Our e-curve analysis, which correctly forecasts the current battery pack price, shows the cost of production should reach that tipping point by 2020–23, two to five years earlier than the projections of analysts relying on traditional cost modeling (see Figure 2). As we noted above, analysts' forecasts based on traditional cost models have not kept pace with declining prices because they tend to calculate costs from a bottom-up perspective.
Battery cost reduction will create the tipping point for mass adoption of electric vehicles
E-curve analysis can provide companies with valuable insights about declining prices and anticipate when breakthroughs may occur. But they do not predict which specific technological innovations will push costs down. There are thousands of engineers trying to bring those costs down, and no analyst can capture all of that innovation. Consequently, by 2017, battery pack costs already had dropped below the level of analysts' forecast for 2020.
The experience curve has its origins in manufacturing and is an effective tool for predicting tipping points in industries where cost-per-unit typically is the main cause of disruption. But with some products, cost is not the primary factor determining a customer's decision. Instead, it's increased value. The price of new car models tends to rise from year to year because they incorporate the latest technologies and offer improved quality, fuel efficiency and safety.
Cloud computing is another example where improved capabilities, not price, propel consumer demand. Between 2014 and 2017, the headline price of cloud services did not decline much, but the amount of storage capacity, price per gigabit of RAM, average utilization per hour and the overall network performance all increased at an accelerating pace. As a result, the total price of the service declined significantly. The downward slope of the e-curve on a capability-adjusted price persuaded many companies to shift to cloud-based services. Cloud technologies also enabled and accelerated the initial growth of new services such as the messaging app Snapchat, which in turn spurred the growth of the cloud.
Companies that understand what consumers value most can use e-curves in a more sophisticated manner. Take the evolution of music players from vinyl records to streaming services. The price didn't drop much from one generation of technology to the next, but functionality improved significantly. Cassette players gave consumers the ability to record music at home and provided greater portability. The Walkman offered music on the go in any location. Compact disc players improved listening quality and gave consumers the freedom to skip tracks of music. MP3 players reduced the size of music systems and increased capacity to store music while introducing the ability to create individual playlists. Finally, music streaming services delivered unlimited music at reduced cost (see Figure 3).
New technologies continually improved the value that music players offered consumers
The companies that bet on the winning technologies in the evolution of music players did not try to bring prices down. Instead, they added features or convenience that customers valued, prompting them to switch.
As we worked with e-curves over the years, it became increasingly clear that to more accurately anticipate technological change, we needed to better understand the value that features and qualities bring to consumers, as in the music player example.
The Elements of Value
Consumers may switch to an innovative new product—even when the price is higher than the original—if they perceive that the new product offers greater value. The added value may be a quantum leap in quality or features that improve ease of use.
As part of his research on factors affecting customer choices, our colleague Eric Almquist in 2016 identified 30 Elements of Value and developed an analytical model around them. These elements address four types of value that consumers experience in a product: functional, emotional, life changing and social impact. Our model traces its conceptual roots to Abraham Maslow's hierarchy of needs. Maslow argued that human actions arise from an innate desire to fulfill needs ranging from the very basic (security, warmth, food) to the complex (self-esteem, altruism). Bain's Elements of Value pyramid expands on Maslow's insights by focusing on people as consumers and describing how they experience the value offered by products and services.
The elements that matter most to consumers help explain why they prefer one product over another. Functional elements such as reducing cost, improving quality, saving time and simplifying a product make up the base of the value pyramid. The next level involves emotional elements, including design and aesthetics, wellness, fun and entertainment. Above that are life-changing elements, such as affiliation and belonging, motivation and self-actualization. The top of the pyramid is self-transcendence.
The B2C Elements of Value
Knowing what consumers value can help companies improve performance—and even unlock new markets.
The introduction of the Apple iPhone in 2007 highlights how these Elements of Value can turn an industry on its head. Compared with its feature phone predecessors from BlackBerry and Nokia, Apple's first iPhone was more expensive, but it offered customers an entirely new combination of values by integrating the features of a cell phone, browser and music player all in one. The iPhone interface was simpler and more integrated than that of feature phones, and its design was more user-friendly. It ushered in the era of the smartphone, rapidly winning over consumers and dooming products that did not offer the same set of values. Within four years of the iPhone's introduction, smartphones dominated the market, and within six years feature phones had nearly disappeared.
Similarly, Amazon's e-commerce model disrupted the retail landscape by addressing consumers' unmet basic needs. Customers saw value, for example, in online purchases as faster, easier and lower cost than in a physical store. They also appreciated the variety of offerings, quality and saving time. Amazon then created Amazon Prime and has increased the value of that service on multiple dimensions every year since (see Figure 4). The value that is created differs by type of product and has therefore led to different rates of penetration for different types of products.
Amazon's Prime service continually offers consumers new Elements of Value®, a key force behind rapidly increasing membership
An analysis of the elements that customers value most can help companies more accurately predict when new technologies will take off.
Specifically, companies can use conjoint analysis to place an effective dollar value on each element of value for specific new technologies.
For example, in research conducted with Dynata, we found that electric vehicle owners significantly value complex factors such as ongoing cost savings, design and aesthetics, as well as the sense of belonging that consumers get from an electric vehicle. Together these higher-level factors contributed to an increased willingness to adopt electric vehicles even when they cost on average roughly $4,000 more than a combustion engine vehicle. Additionally, when consumers received information about lesser-known electric-vehicle advantages, including low maintenance requirements, the number of respondents choosing an electric vehicle over an equivalent gasoline car jumped nearly 10%.
Bain & Company research shows electric vehicles score higher than traditional internal combustion engine vehicles on all Elements of Value. Electric vehicle owners, in fact, value four intangible and higher-order attributes, including hope, affiliation and belonging. Since consumers attribute higher-level values to electric vehicles beyond reducing cost, the tipping point could come sooner than our e-curve forecast for battery pack prices reaching $100 per kWh (see Figure 5).
Electric vehicles outperform traditional vehicles on all Elements of Value®, especially those relating to social impact and life change
B2B Elements of Value
The Elements of Value pyramid is different for companies serving B2B markets, because the basic conditions for selling to business often are different than those for consumers. B2B markets leave less room for error and force competitors to perform at a minimum threshold level. Customer purchase experiences are more complex and less consistent. Reaching decision makers in a B2B business is also more complicated.
The common thread between B2C and B2B analysis is understanding what customers value. The speed at which companies adopt cloud services, for example, depends on the benefits of flexibility and scalability that the cloud offers over legacy hardware. For Netflix, switching to cloud services offered significant advantages, including a quick and easy ramp-up of computing resources on Amazon Web Services in peak periods. That process would have been more expensive if the company had invested in dedicated computer system resources. It also would have created excess capacity during periods of low demand.
The B2B Elements of Value
What matters to business customers? Subjective concerns often play a surprisingly large role.
Cloud computing already represents about 17% of the total IT market, based on public cloud revenues and spending on enabling infrastructure. Bain's analysis indicates that market growth will continue at the current rate until cloud services reach the limit of the addressable market (saturation point) or a new IT paradigm, such as edge computing, disrupts the market.
As we started to understand the elements that consumers and businesses value most, we realized these insights were a powerful complement to e-curve analysis. They told us whether the product had value and whether consumers were likely to buy it. What they didn't tell us, however, is the likely speed and extent of adoption. The tool that addresses these factors is the adoption curve (s-curve).
The adoption curve
Traditional straight-line, bottom-up forecasts often underestimate how quickly consumers will adopt innovative new products, a rate that continues to accelerate. The average time from tipping point when sales take off to 80% of maximum adoption has decreased from about 18 years in the mid-20th century to about 8 years since 2000.
The adoption curve is a tool that predicts how rapidly consumers will switch to a new product by forecasting sales over time. That calculation is based on three assumptions: when the tipping point will occur, how fast different segments of the market will adopt a given technology, and the theoretical maximum level of adoption (see Figure 6).
The adoption curve predicts the tipping point and the pace and extent of adoption
The tipping point for adoption occurs when a rational customer chooses the innovation over the existing product based on an assessment of three criteria: how well it meets functional needs, what additional value the new technology provides and whether the price is more attractive. In other words, customers will switch to a new product if its capabilities and price are more attractive than the original—insights which the e-curve and Elements of Value analysis provide.
However, the speed of adoption is likely to vary from one customer segment to another, based on the new product's breadth of appeal to each group. So to forecast the rate of adoption, it's important to define the key market segments and each group's respective needs. An Elements of Value analysis can help companies identify different tipping points for each customer subgroup, creating a better overall forecast for the pace of adoption.
The tipping point and penetration rate of new services also depend on the value they provide. In e-commerce, for instance, the adoption curves vary for different products since some are better suited to e-commerce than others. Historically, consumers have adopted online offers for media such as film services significantly faster than personal care and beauty, because of price competition, wider selections, improved convenience and product trust, all of which are less important for categories like food and drink or personal care (see Figure 7).
Category penetration for online shopping varies greatly, driven largely by price, selection, convenience and trust
The first step in understanding how quickly consumers will embrace new technologies is plotting a curve based on historic penetration rates for comparable technologies. However, since many elements can affect the pace of adoption, it's critical to adjust the curve based on accelerators and barriers. Without them, the risk increases that the forecast will be wrong.
The pace of adoption is also determined by how large a segment of the market is drawn to the Elements of Value the product provides. As we looked at the adoption curve for electric vehicles, for instance, we identified two main subgroups of consumers: individual vehicle owners and commercial drivers. Each group has different needs and uses for a car and, therefore, different perceptions of the value of an electric vehicle. As a result, the tipping point differs for each group.
Defining these subgroups allows us to create two distinct tipping points: one based on the economics for individuals and one for commercial drivers. Commercial enterprises such as taxi drivers and fleet owners are likely to switch to electric vehicles when the total cost of ownership is the same as for internal combustion engine vehicles—even if the purchase price is higher. Individuals are likely to buy electric vehicles when they become equally or less expensive to purchase than combustion engine vehicles (see Figure 8).
The adoption curve for electric vehicles is based on two distinct consumer groups and their tipping points
We have also used adoption curves in combination with survey data to increase the level of confidence in key assumptions. The resulting analysis provides a detailed view of how a technology is likely to take off under given circumstances. Returning to our previous example of battery pack prices, adoption curve analysis suggests electric vehicle sales could grow much faster than current forecasts (see Figure 9).
A top-down analysis based on historical adoption suggest that electric vehicles sales could grow much faster than current forecasts
The adoption curve predicts how fast adoption is likely to occur, based on historical trends and assumptions about what consumers value. It adds valuable insights and perspective to our forecasting toolkit. But as we worked with adoption curves over time, it was clear that the tipping points model we were building still wasn't complete. We needed to take into account external factors that can speed or slow technology adoption, such as government regulation or consumer attitudes toward a product.
Barriers and accelerators
In the fourth phase of our tipping points journey, we looked beyond economic models to other factors that could influence demand. By identifying industry-specific barriers or accelerators to new technologies, we were able to refine our projections and track developing scenarios with greater precision.
In particular, four structural elements—regulation, technology, economics and consumer behavior—can slow or speed adoption of innovative new products, altering the fundamental shape of the adoption curve, including the tipping point and the pace of adoption. Once we have a good understanding of these external factors, we use them as signposts to monitor the evolving pace of adoption. Identifying signposts is particularly useful when the timing of a technological tipping point is far from certain, and when a company is contemplating when to enter the market.
China's 2007 decision to build large solar energy power plants and to purchase solar panels from low-cost producers was a key accelerator for the fledgling solar industry. The government's investments pushed solar panels rapidly down the e-curve and sped market adoption. Importantly, China financed projects as opposed to inputs: It announced the volume of solar panels it planned to buy, creating a market, but purchased from low-cost manufacturers, creating a powerful incentive to reduce production costs. By contrast, the US government subsidized all solar-panel manufacturers, a policy that didn't encourage companies to reduce costs. As a result, US subsidies failed to stimulate the industry's takeoff.
On the other hand, government policy can also act as a barrier. Data privacy law, for example, may hinder the use of cloud computing in healthcare. Barriers and accelerators give companies a more robust and realistic perspective on the speed at which new technologies are likely to take off. Barriers to adoption of electric vehicles, for example, include infrastructure, limited battery manufacturing capacity, commodity bottlenecks, government regulations and battery pack costs. Each of these barriers is a valuable signpost for monitoring the pace of change.
With cloud computing, technology limitations remain a barrier to shifting additional work cases or workloads to the cloud, but innovation could enable faster adoption. Next-generation technologies such as containers and serverless computing also could accelerate adoption of cloud services by making it easier to develop cloud-native apps. And growth in artificial intelligence and machine learning may speed adoption with a new range of specialized solutions.
On the other side of the equation, the rise of edge computing could compete with cloud services. While cloud processing is centralized, edge computing pushes computing applications, data and services away from centralized nodes to the edge of a network to enable real-time analytics—a computing model particularly well suited to the Internet of Things.
Seeing around the corner
Leadership teams building a strategy in periods of uncertainty can fall into two traps. One is to decide on a likely future scenario and bet on it. Given the number of variables affecting the evolution of new technologies, that's a rifle shot in the dark. The second most common mistake is betting on every square to manage risk.
Tipping points analysis helps companies avoid both those pitfalls by providing clearer visibility into likely future scenarios as well as the variables that could speed or slow change. That gives leadership teams more time to consider options and trade-offs and a head start on implementing and adjusting strategy.
What does that advantage look like? Utility CMS Energy used tipping points analysis to understand if and when fracking technology would become viable and push down natural gas prices. By tracking key signposts, the leadership team spotted the 2012 collapse in the price of natural gas three years ahead of time.
The company's original long-term strategy had anticipated gas prices growing by 70% between 2010 and 2015. Fracking was a little-known technology at the time, but industry experts realized it had the potential to bring new sources of natural gas to market. In 2007, the technology looked promising, but the cost of fracking and government regulation made its viability and adoption highly uncertain.
Amid that uncertainty, the utility identified early indicators that fracking would take off, supply would grow and natural gas prices would drop. These signposts included e-curves on the cost of recovering gas, as well as substitution barriers and accelerators linked to regulatory and safety issues. Within months of setting up these indicators, the number of permits for fracking wells signaled that the new technology would take off. The increasing likelihood of a boom in shale gas production pointed to a collapse in gas prices.
Based on its tipping points analysis, the utility shut down all subscale coal units and announced plans to retire the rest. It bought a natural gas power plant at a fraction of the cost of building a new plant and restructured its gas supply contracts. Natural gas prices subsequently plunged 85%. The company's strategy helped generate a compound shareholder return of 19% from 2011 to 2015, far above the industry average, and doubled the company's market capitalization.
Tipping points analysis is not a perfect science. That's why signposts are such a critical component in forecasting change, as the CMS Energy case shows. The forecasting tools we've highlighted are most effective when combined with a dynamic strategy and decision making.
A growing number of companies have figured that out, and are using tipping points analysis to anticipate technological change that could threaten their business models or create new opportunities. For these leaders, important signposts can deliver more powerful insights than months of detailed analysis. It also gives senior managers critical lead time to react first and adjust their strategies. In a heated race, every advantage matters. Companies that can see around the tech bend before their competition have the inside track.
Elements of Value® is a registered trademark of Bain & Company, Inc.
Mark Gottfredson is a partner with Bain & Company's Performance Improvement and Advanced Manufacturing & Services practices, and he leads the firm's Automotive and Transportation Vehicles practice in the Americas. He is based in Bain's Dallas office. Dunigan O'Keeffe is a partner and leads Bain's Strategy practice in the Americas. He is based in the firm's San Francisco office.
About Dynata
Dynata is one of the world's leading single providers of first-party data contributed by people who opt in to member-based panels that the company manages and maintains. With a reach that encompasses more than 60 million people globally and an extensive library of individual profile attributes collected through surveys, Dynata provides precise, trustworthy quality data. The company has built innovative data services and solutions around this core asset to bring the voice of the individual to the entire marketing spectrum, from market research to marketing and advertising. Dynata serves nearly 6,000 market research agencies, media and advertising agencies, consulting and investment firms, and healthcare and corporate customers in North America, South America, Europe and Asia-Pacific. For more information, go to www.dynata.com.


text:
Before you can log into cPanel, you must open your Internet browser. This will work in whatever browser you are using.
Click on your browser's address bar and enter the http address of your cPanel. The address of your cPanel would have been given to you in your welcome email from Eqservers. There are two ways to login to cPanel:
1)Using an IP Address
The only way to access cPanel if your domain hasn't propagated yet
It would look something like this- http://xx.xx.xx.123/cpanel
2) Using your Domain Name
Can only do this once your domain name is working
This would be http://yourdomain.(com or net or whatever it is)/cpanel
Enter either cPanel address in the address bar of your browser (either the IP Address, or the Domain Name). The next pop-up screen will be a login, calling for your user name and password. They should have been given to you in your welcome email also. Fill in those two fields, and click ok.
That's all there is to it! You are now logged it to your cPanel and can begin to set up email accounts, parked domains, databases, shopping carts, and many, many more feature!
To exit cPanel, simply click on the Logout icon in the right hand corner, or simply close your browser window. However, if you are using a public computer, always remember to logout instead of just closing the browser because of security concerns.


text:
Using the Places SDK for iOS, you can discover the place where the device is currently located. That is, the place at the device's currently-reported location. Examples of places include local businesses, points of interest, and geographic locations.
- Request location authorization
- Usage limits
- Get the current location
- Display attributions in your app
Requesting location authorization
If your app uses
GMSPlacesClient findPlaceLikelihoodsFromCurrentLocationWithPlaceFields:
your app must request permission to use location services. Add the
key to your Info.plist
file, to define the string informing the user why you need the location
services. For example:
<key>NSLocationWhenInUseUsageDescription</key> <string>Show your location on the map</string>
If you want to call
the app is in the background, without triggering a confirmation dialog, take
the following steps prior to making the call:
- Add the
key to yourInfo.plist
file. - Call
on any instance ofCLLocationManager
before calling the method.
Request authorization from CLLocationManager
as follows:
[self.locationManager requestAlwaysAuthorization];
Getting the current location
To find the local business or other place where the device is currently
located, call
. Include
the following parameters:
- One or more
s, specifying which data types to return. If you omit this parameter, ALL possible fields will be returned, and you will be billed accordingly. This applies only to Place Details requests. - A callback method to handle the results.
Fields correspond to Place Search results, and are divided into three billing categories: Basic, Contact, and Atmosphere. Basic fields are billed at base rate, and incur no additional charges. Contact and Atmosphere fields are billed at a higher rate. For more information about how Place data requests are billed, see Usage and Billing.
The API invokes the specified callback method, returning an array of
object represents a place. For each place, the result includes an
indication of the likelihood that the place is the right one. A higher value
means a greater probability that the place is the best match. The buffer may
be empty, if there is no known place corresponding to the device location.
The following code sample retrieves the list of places where the device is most likely to be located, and logs the name and likelihood for each place.
// Specify the place data types to return. let fields: GMSPlaceField = GMSPlaceField(rawValue: UInt(GMSPlaceField.name.rawValue) | UInt(GMSPlaceField.placeID.rawValue))! placesClient?.findPlaceLikelihoodsFromCurrentLocation(withPlaceFields: fields, callback: { (placeLikelihoodList: Array<GMSPlaceLikelihood>?, error: Error?) in if let error = error { print("An error occurred: \(error.localizedDescription)") return } if let placeLikelihoodList = placeLikelihoodList { for likelihood in placeLikelihoodList { let place = likelihood.place print("Current Place name \(String(describing: place.name)) at likelihood \(likelihood.likelihood)") print("Current PlaceID \(String(describing: place.placeID))") } } })
// Specify the place data types to return. GMSPlaceField fields = (GMSPlaceFieldName | GMSPlaceFieldPlaceID); [_placesClient findPlaceLikelihoodsFromCurrentLocationWithPlaceFields:fields callback:^(NSArray<GMSPlaceLikelihood *> * _Nullable likelihoods, NSError * _Nullable error) { if (error != nil) { NSLog(@"An error occurred %@", [error localizedDescription]); return; } if (likelihoods != nil) { for (GMSPlaceLikelihood *likelihood in likelihoods) { GMSPlace *place = likelihood.place; NSLog(@"Current place name: %@", place.name); NSLog(@"Place ID: %@", place.placeID); } } }];
Notes about the likelihood values:
- The likelihood provides a relative probability of the place being the best match within the list of returned places for a single request. You can't compare likelihoods across different requests.
- The value of the likelihood will be between 0 and 1.0.
- The sum of the likelihoods in a returned array of
objects is always less than or equal to 1.0. Note that the sum isn't necessarily 1.0.
For example, to represent a 55% likelihood that the correct place is Place A, and a 35% likelihood that it's Place B, the likelihood array has two members: Place A with a likelihood of 0.55 and Place B with a likelihood of 0.35.
Displaying attributions in your app
When your app displays information obtained from
, the app
must also display attributions. Read more about


text:
"We've Come So Far," original collage, 14" x 11"
The transformation from a rigid life to one that flows.
This heart collage is a one-of-a-kind piece created by layering images and text cut from discarded magazines. I use the cut pieces to make abstract designs that document my observations and feelings about the world.
Each collage begins with a central image that evokes a feeling I want to depict. I build the background around this image to fill out the theme of the piece. Some of the pieces are sanded down to reveal imagery underneath, and other pieces use lace or tulle to partially obscure part of the collage.
The heart collages are a voice of compassion and understanding in a world that sometimes doesn't hear. They're offered as a way to comfort and soothe difficult emotions.
Sustainability is an important part of my artistic practice, and each one-of-a-kind collage is created using images and text cut from discarded magazines. I also incorporate other mediums including lace, tulle netting, colored pencil and graphite.
- 14" x 11" original collage
- collage on cradled wood panel
- coated with UV varnish for durability and to protect against fading
- 3/4 inches deep with natural wood sides
- signed by the artist on the back
- wired and ready to hang, with or without a frame
- USPS Priority shipping within the US
- contact me for an international shipping quote
- artwork guarantee - if you don't love it, return it


text: This is a small corpus, comprising some 40 texts, written in a new script and on a different support than the inscriptions in monumental writing engraved on stone, bronze or rocks. The first two wooden sticks texts were discovered at the beginning of the 1970's, during clandestine excavations in as-Sawdāʾ. The scholar Mahmoud al-Ghul was the first to partially decipher these new documents.


text:
Privacy Policy
This Privacy Policy sets forth how RSUPPORT gains access to and uses your personal information in the context of RemoteVS service. Please read it carefully before using RemoteVS service.
RSUPPORT Co., Ltd. ("RSUPPORT", "we", or "our") is committed to protecting the information of those individuals and organizations who use RemoteVS service contained herein.
This Privacy Policy sets forth how we collect, use, and share information we obtain as a result of your use of RemoteVS service and, in particular, sets forth:- What information we obtain from RemoteVS service;
- How we use the information that we obtain;
- When we share information with others; and
- How you control our use and sharing of your information
Your RemoteVS service may provide access to software application and links to other services owned and operated by third parties including operating system providers and other contents and application providers. These third party services are outside the scope of this Privacy Policy and have their own policies that apply to the collection, use and sharing of information in connection with their services. We encourage you to read those policies. RSUPPORT is not responsible or liable for the privacy practices of such third parties. -
Information Obtained by RemoteVS Service
The information we may collect when you use the RemoteVS service is as follows:- When signing up as a member: ID, email address, name, country, mobile phone number, fixed-line telephone number (optional), company name (optional)
- When using the service: operating system information, access IP (public, private) information, service records, device information, cookies
- When paying for services: credit card information, bank account information, payment records
- For technical support and other inquiries: e-mail, name, company name, phone number, ID
The above information is collected for the purposes of providing or improving RemoteVS service. -
Why RSUPPORT Uses Cookies and Other Similar Technologies and How to Reject
What is Cookie?
- A cookie is a small text-only file sent to your browser by a server used in operating a website which you visit and saved in your computer's hard drive. When you visit the website again, the server of that site will read the cookie saved in your hard drive and uses it to maintain your preferences and provide customized services. The cookie does not automatically/actively collect personally identifiable information, and you may refuse to save or delete such cookie.
Purpose of Using Cookies and Information Obtained
- We use the cookies for target marketing and provide you with personally customized services by analyzing frequency, number and time of your visit and understanding your preferences, field of interest, and level of your participation in various events.
- We only collect anonymous information generated by the cookies (such as demographic data) through the cookies and other similar technologies, and do not collect personally identifiable information. We do not combine such anonymous information with any personally identifiable information obtained through other ways.
Use of Other Similar Technologies
- We use the web analytics service named Google Analytics provided by Google, Inc. ("Google") to analyze and evaluate how our you use our services and to understand our users' demand in order to provide better and more efficient services to our users by improving and personalizing our services and products. Google's Privacy Policy(https://policies.google.com/privacy) and Google Analytics Terms of Service(https://www.google.com/analytics/terms) apply to the handling of all information collected by Google Analytics.
How to Reject the Collection of Cookies
You have the right to election in respect of the installation of cookies. You may reject (opt-out) the automated collection of cookies by using one of the following methods; however, please note that if you elect to reject the collection of cookies, you may experience difficulties in using the services.
[ How to Reject the Collection of Cookies in the Internet Explorer Browser ]
- ① Select [Internet Options] from the [Tools] menu.
- ② On the [Privacy] tab, select [Advanced].
- ③ In [How to process cookies], click [Block].
- ① Select [Settings] from the More menu in the upper right corner.
- ② Select [Advanced] at the bottom.
- ③ In [Privacy & Security], select [Content Settings].
- ④ Select [Cookies] and turn [Allow sites to save and read cookie data] off.
Install Browser Add-on: https://tools.google.com/dlpage/gaoptout - Google Analytics 차단 브라우저 부가 기능(add-on) 설치
You have the right to election in respect of the installation of cookies. You may reject (opt-out) the automated collection of cookies by using one of the following methods; however, please note that if you elect to reject the collection of cookies, you may experience difficulties in using the services.
What is Cookie?
How RSUPPORT Uses the Personal Information It Obtains
We use information obtained from your use of RemoteVS service for various purposes, including:- To provide RemoteVS service you requested;
- To analyze, review and improve RemoteVS service we offer;
- To protect and defend our rights and property, including by way of legal proceedings;
- To comply with regulatory requirements; and
- For internal record keeping.
The legal basis on which we will rely on to process your personal information will typically be one of the following:- Contract: where it is necessary to perform a contract with you
- Legitimate interests: where it is necessary to pursue our or a third party's legitimate interests (this includes where it is necessary for our business with public interest purposes or to exercise public authority granted to us, and where it is necessary to protect our or a third party's material interests)
- Consent: where you have consented to provide it. You have the right to withdraw your consent at any time
- Legal obligation: where the processing is necessary for compliance with our legal obligations
Sharing of Personal Information
While we generally do not share personal information with third parties, please note that in the following circumstances, we may share personal information with the third parties:- Third parties when required by law: As required by court order or other government or law enforcement authorities in order to comply with legal process or law;
- Third parties in connection with corporate transactions: In connection with a corporate event, such as a merger or sale of all or part of our business (including that of a division or subsidiary), where we may need to disclose information to a potential buyer and its professional advisors.
- Third parties when it is necessary to protect our services: In order to protect and defend our rights and assets, including by way of legal action
- Third parties when it is to protect any of our users' personal safety or assets: In order to protect the safety or
- We store all data collected during the use of RemoteVS service in the system provided by Amazon Web Services, Inc. ("AWS"). AWS may have access to your data, and AWS's data privacy policy (https://aws.amazon.com/compliance/data-privacy-faq/?nc1=f_ls) applies to the handling of all data stored in AWS's system.
Transfer of Personal Information
We may use information (including your personal information) in countries other than where your device is located in connection with providing you with our RemoteVS service and any other purposes outlined in this Privacy Policy. The data protection laws in many of these countries may not offer the same level of protection as those in the country where you are located. However, before transferring your personal information, we will take all technical measures under our guidelines that such information is managed in accordance with EU General Data Protection Regulation and consistently maintained in a secure manner to ensure that such information will be afforded the same level of protection. For further information on how we handle and protect your personally identifiable information, please contact us at firstname.lastname@example.com. -
Period of Retention of Users' Personal Information
We will take reasonable measures to ensure that we only keep your personal information for as long as is necessary for us to provide you with RemoteVS service or for the purpose for which it was collected or as required by applicable law. We apply criteria to determine the appropriate retention period for different categories of personal information you provide us with. For instance, we will keep information necessary to protect us in a legal claim, such as information relating to a contract, for the term of the contract and up to one year thereafter. After the expiration of such period, the relevant information will be deleted or anonymized. Where we have collected the personal information based on your consent and we have no other legal basis to continue with that processing, if you subsequently withdraw your consent, then we will delete your personal information.
If you request for deletion of your personal information because it is no longer needed, or based on an objection to the processing or a claim that the processing is illegal, you have the right to request a restriction on the processing while we verify your request for deletion. -
We are using the following efforts to protect the secrecy and maintain the security of your personal information.-
Operation of Security Management System
- We take security measures in accordance with the date protection regulations.
- We have established and are implementing our internal management system designed to prevent data loss, ensure data integrity and regulate access to data.
- When our employee accesses any personal data he/she must use his/her ID and password to authenticate such access, and we have established and are in compliance with the regulations on password setting requirements (such as combination of characters and numbers and length of password), frequency of password change, and other management matters.
Internal Regulations for Information Security
- We have enacted and are implementing the information security policies and detailed guidelines for the protection of data assets
- We are carrying out security campaigns together with our annual information security training in order to improve knowledge of our officers and employees on information security.
- We are operating a separate division for managing information security and personal information, and annually amend our information protection policies and guidelines and carry them out in accordance with the annual plan, and have enacted and are implementing internal rules regarding information security.
Compliance with Security Standard Technology
- We have established and are implementing our internal management system based on the international/domestic information protection management system standards in order to protect our information assets.
- Sensitive personal information such as passwords are safely stored by using SHA-2 based SHA-256 cryptographic hash algorithm.
- We develop and review in compliance with safe development security guidelines, and have established and are applying countermeasures and precautionary measures with respect to relevant cyber security threats.
Full Maintenance of Information Security Audit System
- Security settings through account management, access control, system security settings, service & log management, and patch management to prepare the system against any outside security breach is compulsory.
- We comply with the laws and regulations relating to information security, and our internal information security policies and guidelines, and carry out internal security audit and verification activity once a year in order to confirm that effective functions are maintained.
- We also periodically detect and promptly resolve any potential security vulnerability issues through utilizing simulation hacking service of a third party security agency.
- In response to the annually released top 10 list of web vulnerabilities (OWASP TOP10), we eliminate related vulnerabilities and pay full attention to inspections through various inspection tools.
Operation of Security Management System
Protection of Children's Personal Information
Protecting the personal information of children is important to us. For that reason, none of our services are directed at or designed to attract anyone under the age of 16 or the age of majority in the relevant jurisdiction. We also do not knowingly collect or maintain personal information from users who are under the age of 16 or the age of majority in the relevant jurisdiction. Should we learn or be notified that we have collected information from users under the age of 16 or the age of majority in the relevant jurisdiction, we will promptly delete such personal information. -
Changes to RSUPPORT's Privacy Policy
This Privacy Policy may be amended or updated by us from time to time. If we make a material change to our Privacy Policy, we will inform you through our website or other means, and will publish it on our website for review by the users. Please refer to our last updated Privacy Policy. You may be required to agree to the amended/updated Privacy Policy in order to continue using the relevant service. -
Accessing Your Information and Your Rights
Under the laws of each jurisdiction, you may have the right to request access to, rectification or deletion of, the personal information we hold about you or the right to object to or restrict certain types of processing of your personal information (or to withdraw your consent to our personal information processing), or to receive a machine-readable copy of your personal information. If permitted by law, a small fee for providing you with such service may be charged. Please note that we may decline to process your requests to the extent permitted by law if they are unreasonable or malicious, jeopardize the privacy of others, or are extremely impractical. For further information or to exercise any of these rights, please contact us at firstname.lastname@example.com. -
Contact Information
RSUPPORT's Data Protection Officer's contact information is as follow:
RSUPPORT Co., Ltd.
Address: S-Tower, 10 Wiryeseong-daero, Songpa-gu, Seoul, Republic of Korea
Phone: +82-70-7011-3900
E-mail: firstname.lastname@example.com
If you have any questions or comments about this Privacy Policy or RSUPPORT's processing of your personal information, please reach out to us at the address, phone number or email address written above. You also have the right to lodge a complaint with a data protection authority; however, we would encourage you to first contact us directly to resolve any concerns.
Last updated Date: Auguest 12, 2020