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The BabySibs Consortium: Important Findings Ahead
Posted by Alycia Halladay, PhD, director of research for environmental science, Autism Speaks
Last week, Autism Speaks High Risk Baby Siblings Research Consortium made the news with the findings that autism recurs in families much more frequently than had been realized.
Autism's recurrence within families is of tremendous interest to both researchers and families, and our "High Risk Baby Siblings Research Consortium" continues to study this and other important questions regarding the risks, causes, prevention, and early treatment of autism.
So I'd like to take this opportunity to tell you more about this remarkable group of researchers and their ongoing research–made possible in no small part by your volunteer and donor support.
We support this research consortium in collaboration with the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (NICHD). In 2003, Alice Kau, of NICHD, and our own VP of Scientific Affairs Andy Shih organized the consortium. I joined with a leadership role in 2005. Since then, the group has grown to include 25 leading autism researchers across 21 medical centers in the United States, Canada, Israel, and the United Kingdom.
They all share the goal of studying the earliest symptoms of autism spectrum disorders (ASDs). They are able to do so because of the generous participation of families with infants and at least one older child on the autism spectrum. These families are so important to research because of the relatively high likelihood that autism will recur among younger siblings.
By following the development of these young children, our consortium researchers are able to do much more than give us more accurate information on recurrence rates. For example, they are making exciting progress in increasing understanding of how and when autism signs and symptoms first appear. This includes insights into the pattern we call "regression," which involves a loss of skills in an infant or toddler who appeared to be developing normally. As a group, the consortium has published a number of articles to help guide pediatricians and other primary care doctors in how to approach children and families already affected by autism. Their research into early signs and symptoms, for example, has helped clinicians diagnose and provide treatment as early as 12 months of age.
Several of the Baby Sibling Consortium researchers also participate in another important Autism Speaks group, the Toddler Treatment Network. It has a deeper focus on early signs and symptoms, particularly as they relate to developing earlier interventions that may actually prevent the development of some or all autism symptoms.
Families with recurrent autism are crucially needed to help our researchers identify the genes and other influences that increase the risk that children will develop autism. By allowing our researchers to track progress beginning in pregnancy, for example, families provide insights into such risk factors as parental age at conception, and maternal infection and nutrition during pregnancy.
Our researchers are also tracking brain development and identifying so-called biomarkers (such as distinctive brainwave patterns) for earlier and more accurate diagnosis. And, yes, this research can also help us look at whether certain patterns of vaccination make any difference in the risk of autism among children genetically predisposed to the disorder.
Taken together, a better understanding of early signs and symptoms has led to earlier, better accurate diagnoses of ASD along with important knowledge of what causes autism. This research is not possible without the group working together, and without the valuable support of the National Institutes of Health, and most importantly, the families who donate their valuable time to this research.
Interested in learning more—and perhaps participating in the research? Please check out our list of Baby Sibling Research Consortium researchers and contact one in your area.
Increased Risk of Autism in Siblings News Coverage
With the release of the first major report of the Autism Speaks Baby Siblings Research Consortium, the world learned that the autism recurs in families at a much higher rate than previously estimated. For perspective and guidance, the national media turned to our director of research for environmental sciences, Alycia Halladay, PhD.
Vodpod videos no longer available.
Autism Speaks' Alycia Halladay, Ph.D., provides perspective on NPR's All Things Considered. To listen to the segment, visit here.
The CBS Early Show aired, 'Study suggests link between Autism, siblings' that can be viewed here.
For Siblings of Autistic Kids, Risk Is Far Higher Than Thought (TIME)
Autism runs in families to a much greater degree than previously thought, according to new research that has tracked the younger siblings of children with the developmental disorder. Read more.
Chance of having more than one autistic child higher than thought (MSNBC)
Siblings of kids with autism have a higher risk of being diagnosed with the disorder than previously believed, suggests a new study. Read more.
Autism Risk for Siblings Higher Than Expected (The New York Times)
Parents who have a child with autism have about a 1 in 5 chance of having a second child with autism, a far greater risk than previously believed, new research shows. Read more.
Autism Risk 'High' for Kids with Older Sibling on the Spectrum
Autism Speaks' Alycia Halladay, Ph.D., provides perspective on NPR's All Things Considered. To listen to the segment, visit here.
Increased Risk of Autism in Siblings LIVE Chat Transcript
Autism Speaks' Alycia Halladay, Ph.D., hosted a LIVE Facebook Chat on the just released study showing a high risk of autism among the younger siblings of children on the spectrum. Dr. Halladay organized and continues to help lead the High-Risk Baby Siblings Research Consortium that conducted the research and which continues to study the factors that predispose some families to autism recurrence. Please see our news item and a special commentary from Autism Speaks' Chief Science Officer Geri Dawson, Ph.D.
New findings on risk of autism in siblings – What do they mean for parents?
A message from Autism Speaks Chief Science Officer Geri Dawson, PhD
Parents of a child with autism are understandably concerned about the likelihood that their subsequent children will be affected. Autism Speaks and its legacy organization, the National Alliance for Autism Research, have been funding research on younger siblings for nearly 15 years– to help us better understand their development.
In 2003, we began organizing and co-funding a very special collaboration—the High Risk Baby Siblings Research Consortium—in partnership with Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute for Child Health Development.
This week, we announced the results of the consortium's largest ever siblings study. The researchers followed younger brothers and sisters from infancy through the preschool period, when autism diagnosis becomes possible. The study revealed a markedly higher risk among younger siblings than had been previously reported.
As the autism community absorbs the news, let me give you some background on the quality and importance of this research—and what it means for parents.
Our "Baby Sibs" researchers are an international network of clinical researchers who have been pooling information from studies of affected families in 21 sites in the US, Canada, Israel and the UK. Alycia Halladay, Autism Speaks director of research for environmental sciences, and Andy Shih, vice president of scientific affairs, have led the consortium from the start and continue to coordinate its activities.
In the study making headlines this week, the consortium researchers assessed 664 infants. Each had at least one older sibling diagnosed with an autism spectrum disorder (ASD). They found that 1 in 5 babies with an older sibling on the spectrum will likewise be affected—more than double previous estimates. The rate was higher among younger brothers—1 in 4, versus 1 in 9 for younger sisters. And autism affected nearly 1 in 3 infants with more than one older sibling on the spectrum. (Previous estimates came out of much smaller and sometimes less reliably conducted studies.)
So what does this mean for parents?
If you have an older child on the spectrum and you are concerned about your infant, talk to your pediatrician about your baby's risk and your desire for close monitoring. And if you have any concerns about your child's development, don't wait. Speak with your doctor about screening.
Here are links to a number of helpful resources:
* Recent research funded by Autism Speaks shows that a one-page baby-toddler checklist can be used effectively as early as 12 months as an initial screen for autism and other developmental disorders. The screener is available here.
* The American Academy of Pediatrics has long recommended that all children be screened for autism at their 18 month well baby checkups, using the M-CHAT toddler screener, available here.
* As a parent or caregiver, one of the most important things you can do is learn the early signs of autism and understand the developmental milestones your child should be reaching. You can see the Learn the Signs guidelines on our website, here.
* Finally, families with one or more children on the spectrum can contact their nearest "Baby Sibs" consortium researcher if they would like to participate in this important research. The list is on our website, here.
By monitoring your infant closely and promptly beginning intervention if signs of autism appear, you can ensure that your child will have the best possible outcome.
Vodpod videos no longer available.
Autism risk 'high' for kids with older sibling with the disorder. Autism Speaks' Alycia Halladay, Ph.D., provides perspective of NPR's All Things Considered. To listen to the segment, visit here.
'Meta-analysis' Clarifies Birth Conditions Associated with Autism
Posted by Alycia Halladay, PhD, director of research for environmental science, Autism Speaks
For over four decades, autism researchers have been combing through birth records to look for events that might increase the risk that a newborn goes on to develop an autism spectrum disorder (ASD). Many clues have emerged regarding the influence of such factors as prematurity, low birth weight, method of delivery, or even the season in which conception or delivery occurs. But no one study was large enough to provide definitive answers, and inconsistent results between studies have caused confusion among scientists as well as parents trying to follow the science.
Today, the respected journal Pediatrics publishes a study that goes far in cutting through the confusion. Researchers from Harvard and Brown universities reviewed and analyzed the combined results of 40 studies that looked at potential autism risk factors during the birth (perinatal) and newborn (neonatal) period.
Such a "meta-analysis" study is a powerful tool in science, as it allows researchers to combine and compare findings from different sources to get a clearer, more reliable picture of the associations between potential risks and conditions such as autism. Importantly, the study confirmed an association between autism and such conditions as abnormal fetal presentation during delivery (for example, breech), fetal respiratory distress (breathing difficulties), birth injury or trauma, low 5-minute APGAR score (a 1-10 score for assessing newborn health after delivery), newborn seizures, low birth weight, multiple births (twins, triplets, etc.), anemia (low blood iron, and being born in the summer.
Of note, preterm birth was not found to be associated with ASD, of particular interest because there had been considerable differences on this count across earlier studies. Most importantly, perhaps, the researchers concluded that the evidence did not implicate any one perinatal or neonatal factor as causing autism by itself. Rather, the evidence suggests that a combination of these factors—reflecting generally poor conditions during and immediately after birth–may increase the risk that a child with an underlying genetic disposition will develop autism.
One common thread across several of these risk factors is that they result in a lack of adequate blood flow to the brain during the birth process. One hypothesis is that, when combined with a genetic predisposition, oxygen deprivation to the brain worsens abnormal brain development. Studying these and other environmental (versus genetic) risk factors for autism is important to increase our understanding of the biology of ASD and to provide practical guidance for physicians and parents on how to avoid or modify those risk factors that can be changed.
In addition, this meta-analysis strongly suggests that pediatricians and parents should closely monitor the development of babies born in difficult situations so that early intervention can be offered should developmental issues such as autism arise. What this study does not say is that difficult birth means a baby will go on to develop autism. Rather, these conditions and complications may increase the risk of autism among those who have a genetic predisposition for developing it.
As in my last post, I want to invite readers to explore the many environmental risk studies that Autism Speaks is supporting with donor dollars, scientific resources, and the participation of autism families in clinical studies. Please see our Grants Search and Participate gateways at www.autismspeaks.org. Thanks for being a vital part of our mission to improve the lives of all who struggle with autism. For more on the Pediatrics meta-analysis study, also see Autism Speaks news.
Twin Study Suggests Environmental Role in Autism: Now What?
Posted by Alycia Halladay, PhD, director of research for environmental science, Autism Speaks
As reported last week, a large twin study supported by Autism Speaks compared the frequency with which identical and fraternal twins both share a diagnosis of autism. This approach enabled the investigators to use statistical techniques to calculate the degree to which environmental factors shared by twins contribute to their risk of developing autism. Such factors include conditions in the womb and during birth.
The results of the California Autism Twin study were game-changing because they revealed a much larger environmental influence than had previously been estimated—accounting for about 58% of the risk of developing autism. By contrast, much smaller twin studies had previously suggested that genes largely accounted for a child's risk of autism.
The results underscore the need to investigate the role that non-inherited risk factors play in the development of autism spectrum disorders (ASD). So what's being done to help speed this research? And what role are Autism Speaks and its donor dollars playing in this effort?
Autism Speaks has funded over $21 million in the study of environmental risk factors, an initiative we call (obviously enough) the Environmental Factors of Autism Initiative. Already, we have a large body of evidence suggesting that it is not any one environmental factor, but many different factors working together, that elevate the risk and severity of autism in individuals with a genetic predisposition for this condition. In other words, autism is seldom caused by any one thing and neither is it an "all or nothing" condition. Furthermore, different combinations of genetic and environmental risk factors contribute to individual cases of autism.
Within the Environmental Factors of Autism Initiative are ongoing studies focusing on environmental exposures that occur before and during pregnancy and throughout the first year of life—crucial periods for human brain development. These studies look at such possible risk factors as maternal and paternal age, socioeconomic status, season of birth, exposure to chemicals or toxic agents, nutrition and exposure to various pharmaceutical drugs during pregnancy, the difficulty of labor and delivery, and various other forms of prenatal stress. The researchers we support are also investigating the mechanisms by which genes and the environment may interact (so-called epigenetics) and the role of the immune system. We are also supporting large scale epidemiological studies that focus on pregnancy and the first year of life. These include the EARLI study and the IBIS study.
Are you interested in learning more about the studies Autism Speaks is funding with donor dollars? We are proud to debut the new Grant Search function on our website. Please use it to explore past and present research studies by topic or location. And if you or your family is affected by autism, please consider participating in one of our clinical studies.
Epidemiology sheds new light on risk factors for ASD
by Alycia Halladay, Ph.D, Director of Environmental Science
Research using identical and fraternal twins is typically used to identify genetic influences on the development of ASD. This year, researchers studied a large group of twins and examined the concordance of different types of symptoms (1). Using this approach, the researchers found that the concordance of severe autism between identical twins and fraternal twins was about the same, indicating a strong environmental component to ASD severity. But what are those environmental factors? Epidemiological studies are providing clues.
At this year's IMFAR, new data was presented that focused on studying groups of people and their exposures to a number of environmental factors. Each used different designs with their own unique advantages. For example, at UC Davis, the CHARGE study (www.beincharge.ucdavis.edu) examined the risk of developing autism following exposure to a number of factors that were identified through self report or medical records. Those that showed an association were antidepressant SSRI use (2) and metabolic disorders including hypertension and diabetes (3). On the other hand, a previously identified factor, maternal infection, was not associated (4). Why not? The researchers suggested that fever, not infection per se, may be a factor. Using self-report and medical records obtained prior to study entry may not accurately capture all relevant information, and an infection or fever may be missed in some reports. However, other types of information, such as method of birth, is easier to gather accurately. An analysis revealed that non-emergency or elective c-section deliveries did not show a significant association with autism, addressing a concern that many public and community stakeholders have expressed (5).
As an alternative to retrospective reports, the Early Markers of Autism Study in California is obtaining samples of blood from pregnant women by obtaining extra blood taken during the alpha-fetal protein screen that is banked. Not all states bank these samples for research, so this is a unique resource. By examining the levels of mercury in blood taken during pregnancy together with newborn blood spots, the researchers can get a more comprehensive picture of the prenatal environment. They reported no difference in mercury levels compared to those of non-affected children during gestation, and also reported no difference in thyroid hormone levels (6,7). Examination of subgroups of autism with regression did not change the results. While these data are incredibly novel and valuable, these studies were not designed to capture information throughout the entire pregnancy nor capture factors after birth
Another way to study exposures during pregnancy is through birth certificate data. In some states, the birth certificate contains information such as the place of birth and the occupation of the mother and the father. Using this information, scientists found that occupational exposures in mothers to certain chemicals resulted in an increased risk of ASD in offspring (8).
While each approach brings unique strengths, all researchers agree that the most comprehensive way to capture all information accurately, is a prospective design. This means identifying children as soon as possible and following them from that point on to gather every piece of relevant information from medical reports to blood samples. Autism Speaks is proud to co-sponsor such a study: the Early Autism Risk Longitudinal Investigation (EARLI). This groundbreaking project will provide even more answers to what causes autism, and needs the help of the community to do so.
So how can researchers blend or expand their research if they are using only one type of design? Autism Speaks and the National Institutes for Environmental Health Sciences are sponsoring a network of projects called the Environmental Epidemiology of Autism Research Network (EEARN). The goal of this network is to improve communication among researchers in this field, identify opportunities for collaborative projects and improve research tools for both existing, and new projects. Over 20 studies from 8 countries are represented in the network. We will keep you updated on the activity of the network, and we hope you will keep checking in for updates.
1. Understanding Clinical Variability In Autism: Results From a California Twin Study. W. Froehlich*1, S.
Cleveland1, A. Torres1, J. M. Phillips1, B. Cohen2, A. Fedele3, T. Torigoe2, J. Collins4, K. S. Smith5, L. Lotspeich1, L. A. Croen4, S. Ozonoff6, C. Lajonchere7, J. K. Grether5, N. Risch8 and J. Hallmayer1, (1)Stanford University, Stanford, CA, (2)Autism Genetic ResourceExchange, Los Angeles, CA, (3)Autism Speaks, Westmont, NJ,
United States, (4)Kaiser Permanente, Division of Research, Oakland, CA, (5)California Department of Public Health, Richmond , CA, (6)UC Davis MIND Institute, Sacramento, CA, (7)Autism Speaks, Los Angeles, CA, United States, (8)University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA
2. SSRI Use During Pregnancy and Risk of ASD or Developmental Delay In Children. R. A. Harrington*1,L. C. Lee1, C. K. Walker2, R. L. Hansen3, S. Ozonoff3 and I. Hertz-Picciotto4, (1)Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, (2)Department of Public Health Sciences, University of California at Davis, Davis, CA, (3)MIND Institute, University of California at Davis, Sacramento, CA, (4)Department of Public Health Sciences, University of California Davis, Davis, CA
3. The Role of Maternal Diabetes and Related Conditions In Autism and Other Developmental Delays. P. Krakowiak*1,2, A. A. Bremer3, A. S. Baker1, C. K. Walker1,4, R. L. Hansen2,3 and I. Hertz-Picciotto1,2, (1)Public Health Sciences, University of California, Davis, Davis, CA, (2)M.I.N.D. Institute, Sacramento, CA, (3)Pediatrics, University of California, Davis, Sacramento, CA, (4)Obstetrics & Gynecology, University of California, Davis, Sacramento, CA
4. Prenatal Influenza or Fever and Risk of Autism/Autism Spectrum Disorders. O. Zerbo*1, I. Hertz- Picciotto2,3, A. M. Iosif4, R. L. Hansen5,6,7 and C. K. Walker8, (1)Sacramento, CA, (2)University of California, Davis, Davis, CA, (3)Department of Public Health Sciences, University of California Davis, Davis, CA, (4)UC Davis, Davis, CA, (5)University of California, Davis, MIND Institute, Sacramento, CA, (6)MIND Institute, University of California at Davis, Sacramento, CA, (7)MIND Institute and Dept. of Pediatrics, University of California Davis, Davis, CA, (8)Department of Public Health Sciences, University of California at Davis, Davis, CA
5. Cesarean Birth and Autism Spectrum Disorder. C. K. Walker*1, P. Krakiowiak2, A. S. Baker3, R. L. Hansen4, S. Ozonoff5 and I. Hertz-Picciotto6, (1)Obstetrics & Gynecology, UC Davis, Sacramento, CA, (2)Public Health Sciences, UC Davis, Sacramento, CA, (3)Public Health Sciences, UC Davis, Davis, CA, (4)Pediatrics, M.I.N.D. Institute, UC Davis, Sacramento, CA, (5)Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences, M.I.N.D. Institute, UC Davis, Sacramento, CA, (6)Public Health Sciences, M.I.N.D. Institute, UC Davis, Davis, CA
6. Prenatal and Neonatal Peripheral Blood Mercury Levels and Autism Spectrum Disorders. L. A. Croen*1, M. A. Lutsky1, C. Yoshida1, C. P. Alaimo2, M. Kharrazi3, J. K. Grether4 and P. Green2, (1)Kaiser Permanente Division of Research, Oakland, CA, (2)Civil and Environmental Engineering, Univ. of California Davis, Davis, CA, (3)Genetic Disease Screening Program, California Department of Public Health, Richmond, CA, (4)California Department of Public Health, Richmond, CA
7. Prenatal and Neonatal Thyroid Stimulating Hormone Levels and Autism Spectrum Disorder. M. A. Lutsky*1, C. Yoshida1, B. Lasley2, M. Kharrazi3, J. K. Grether4, G. Windham4 and L. A. Croen1, (1)Kaiser Permanente Division of Research, Oakland, CA, (2)Department of Population Health and Reproduction, UC Davis, Davis, CA, (3)Genetic Disease Screening Program, California Department of Public Health, Richmond, CA, (4)California Department of Public Health, Richmond, CA
8. Autism Spectrum Disorders In Relation to Parental Occupational Exposures During Pregnancy. G. Windham*1, J. K. Grether2, A. Sumner3, S. Li4, E. Katz5 and L. A. Croen6, (1)California Department of Public Health, Richmond, CA, (2)California Department of Public Health, Richmond, CA, (3)Vermont Department of Health, Burlington, VT, (4)Kaiser Permanente Divison of Research, Oakland, CA, (5)Occupational Health Branch, CA Department of Public Health, Richmond, CA, (6)Kaiser Permanente Division of Research, Oakland, CA
Is early intervention for ASD actually prevention?
By: Alycia Halladay, Ph.D., Director of Research, Environmental Health Sciences
As the average age at which early signs and symptoms of autism and diagnosis moves becomes younger and younger, methods for intervening at autism at the earliest possible ages are becoming more widely used. At this year's IMFAR meeting, several clinicians and researchers addressed differences in design, methods, and identified challenges and potential solutions for delivering intervention from individuals with ASD as young at 10 months of age. Since this is when very early symptoms of ASD can be detected, but not yet diagnosed, many are considering this as a method of prevention rather than intervention. A feasible and cost-efficient way to provide interventions to infants and toddlers is to engage parents and train them to use behavioral techniques to improve development. What works for adolescents and adults does not apply to infants and toddlers. Instead of spending time working on specific tasks and skillsets, clinicians work with parents and provide ongoing support to engage children in social, communication and motor skills during playtime activities. But does this prevent ASD?
The simple answer is that it is very complicated. As reported in an earlier report, one size does not fit all. There may be a number of variables that affect outcome. In addition, last year, a report out of the UK last year reported that parent-mediated interventions did not result in a change in diagnostic status in young children. This same group showed new data at IMFAR this year showing that the intervention was effective in some ways – infants showed increased attention and gestures as well as improved shared interest. These early improvements are thought to lead to a higher level of functioning later on.
Children with ASD suffer from impoverished social interaction, and parents can be instrumental in providing stimuli to their children to change behavior. Most interventions now focus on encouraging parents to actively engage the child using evidence based strategies, in natural environments. Other types of interventions that were used included promoting behaviors and responsiveness in the context of everyday routines.
Given that published research don't actually prevent ASD, but improve long-term outcomes, is the goal of early interventions to reduce the incidence of ASD? Alice Carter, member of the Autism Speaks Toddler Treatment Network noted that earlier screening and delivery of parent interventions which improve joint attention, and coordinated attention between parent and child – may prevent symptoms down the road, but may not always lead to a change in diagnosis. She stated "working with parents can make a huge difference in many children's lives."
Improved outcome measures which are more sensitive to improvements over time on a number of domains need to be developed to better describe these differences. In addition, working with a young child at home is difficult in any situation, and especially for families affected by ASD. Therefore, methods and techniques to maximize the amount of time parents deliver effective interventions are considered a priority. Autism Speaks is proud to sponsor this network in thinking about these important issues.
Using the well baby checkup to screen for autism
by Autism Speaks' Staff bloggers Alycia Halladay, Ph.D., Director of Environmental Science and Geri Dawson, Ph.D., Chief Science Officer
In 2007, the American Academy of Pediatrics published guidelines recommending that all children be screened for autism at their 18 and 24 month well baby checkups. While these recommendations have not been universally implemented in clinical practice, these guidelines are a positive step forward. New research from the Baby Siblings Research Consortium suggests that signs of autism can be detected as early as 6-12 months. Early detection and subsequent early intervention provide hope of changing the developmental trajectories of children with ASD to improve their outcome.
A recent study published in the Journal of Pediatrics, and supported by Autism Speaks, aims to address each of these challenges by utilizing a checklist called the Communication and Symbolic Behavior Scales Developmental Profile Infant-Toddler Checklist. Lead author Karen Pierce, Ph.D. of UCSD asked pediatricians to use this instrument as part of a well-baby checkup. This checklist was developed by Amy Wetherby, Ph.D., who was instrumental in creating the Autism Video Glossary. The instrument is also available online at www.firstsigns.org.
The researchers took a multi-phase approach. They first provided training to pediatricians on the signs and symptoms of autism. Such an approach has been used successfully before by a group at Vanderbilt University. However, this study screened infants as early as 12 months of age and conducted the 1 year screening in pediatricians' offices, which had not been done before. Next, parents were asked to fill out the questionnaire in the waiting room, and the questionnaire was scored by the time the parent met with the physician. The checklist responses from parents then were reviewed by participating pediatricians, and children who were flagged by the questionnaire were referred to a UCSD clinic for further evaluation. About 12% of children who were screened were referred to the clinic for an evaluation. Of those, about half were followed to 3 years of age and 17% were later diagnosed with an ASD. Other diagnoses included learning disabilities and developmental disabilities.
This study is important for several obvious and some not so obvious reasons. First, and perhaps most importantly, this study shows that it is feasible for pediatricians to become actively engaged in an easy-to-implement early screening program for ASD for children as young as 12 months of age. Also important, all families who were interested were able to obtain the services of a clinician very early in their child's development. For those that were later diagnosed with an ASD, 100% received treatment by 17 months.
Second, a training program that increased awareness about ASD in the medical community among pediatricians produced a long-term impact on their practice. Only 22% of pediatricians involved were screening for autism at 1 year before the program; now all of them report they are maintaining the use of the toddler checklist.
However, this method is not without its limitations. The effectiveness of this program depends on the ability of pediatricians to have access to and a relationship with a clinic they can refer to, which is not the case in every area of the country or the world. Also, not all infants who were referred went on to receive an evaluation, for reasons that are unclear. The results suggest that early screening may enhance, not replace, evaluation at 18 and 24 months to ensure that cases that may not be detected as early as 12 months are not missed.
We applaud the work of Pierce and her colleagues for their efforts to identify autism as early as possible and bring primary medical care staff into that process. Studies such as this highlight the many very important steps, undertaken by the Baby Siblings Research Consortium, the Autism Treatment Network and the Toddler Treatment Network, to ensure that children are screened as early as possible, seen by a clinician as part of a full evaluation, and then treated by trained personnel for medical and behavioral interventions. Additional efforts should be made to ensure that parents have access to a knowledgeable pediatrician and are provided with the resources to follow up on the recommendations.
Karen Pierce, PhD, Cindy Carter, PhD, Melanie Weinfeld, PhD, Jamie Desmond, MPH, Roxana Hazin, BS, Robert Bjork, MD, and Nicole Gallagher, BA. Detecting, Studying, and Treating Autism Early: The One-Year Well-Baby Check-Up Approach, J. Pediatrics, 2011 (published online April 28, 2011).


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Skip to comments.Rush Limbaugh: Gay Marriage Inevitable, Conservatives Lost
Posted on 03/28/2013 2:54:01 PM PDT by drewh
Conservative talk show how Rush Limbaugh said Thursday on his radio show that conservatives have lost the gay marriage debate and that it is now inevitable.
This issue is lost, he said. I dont care what the Supreme Court does. This is inevitable. And its inevitable because we lost the language on this. Limbaugh added that conservatives lost the debate because they allowed the term marriage to be bastardized.
As far as Im concerned, once we started talking about gay marriage, traditional marriage, opposite-sex marriage, same-sex marriage, hetero marriage, we lost, Limbaugh said. It was over.
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...
Conservatives didn't lose, society lost.
I don't think we lost it here (not even sure it is lost, yet.)
We're losing here the same way we are losing many other ways: the media and education.
Until we get strength back in these institutions, we'll continue to lose.
Yep. Generations are being indoctrinated. They view us as dinosaurs. We have to discredit and trash the NEA and expose what is going on
> Were losing here the same way we are losing many other
> ways: the media and education.
You cannot win these. They must be destroyed.
Conservatives must get their children OUT of the government school collectives.
As long as conservatives buy into modern "public education", the largest, most expensive, most destructive of all entitlement programs, they have bought the whole Leftist program.
I predict:
A tiny segment of the gay population will ever get "married." The astronomical rates of promiscuity and disease among active homosexuals will not budge.
The "legal" status of same-sex "marriage" will be used by Democrat activists to persecute Christians in every manner they can devise—which is what this is all about, anyway.
"We have to discredit and trash the NEA"
Those people are so entrenched that anything short of rounding them all up and putting them against a wall is doomed to fail.
Gay marriage will be followed by gay divorce. The ones who benefit the most will be the divorce lawyers, because gays are incapable of fidelity.
Libertarianism introduced a language and a fig leaf for natural born liberals to corrupt conservative/republican conversation, and to blur and confuse the lines dividing conservatives from rinos.
The catch phrase on the road to the gates of hell and to the end of civilization is, Im libertarian on social issues, but conservative on economics.
Get used to it folks, that is the new language of the Romney /Rockefeller wing of the GOP.
I don't agree with Rush on this point.
Ditch the federal designation of marriage and the turd burglars won't want it anymore.
RE: #5, agree 100%. There's a reason Marx endorsed government indoctrination (I mean) education.
No, we view you and your generation as spineless quitters. Failed on abortion, failed on gay marriage.
It is normal in America to believe that your children can spend 12 years in a godless, communal (Communist) institution, and emerge believing in God and liberty.
We lost the fight a long time ago, as demonstrated by the fact that the GOPe is run by guys like Romney or Preibeus who think of Christians as inconveniences who make it harder for them to maintain power.
It's time to dump these fools and continue to fight the good fight.
Good to see all the surrender 'conservatives' come out the woodwork.
As a nation, we've turn away from God. It's time to stop sending missionaries to Africa and start sending to our local neighborhoods.
If you want to win back the culture, start building up the church.
If there is one thing I agree with him on is that language is the problem.
Liberals get away with changing it. They change their names from progressives to liberals back to progressives; they are currently changing Global Warming to Climate Change; they controlled the language with "Main Street vs Wall Street" when it was they that were the problem, they were the ones that created the housing mess.
Led by, none other than the gay POTUS. He's good at leading when it comes to things destructive to our founding principles. As far as 'constructive', he's not interested. Destruction is the mission.
We will never again be the kind of country we once were, "moral" but with religion treated subjectively. When the forces of evil are finally defeated it will be by Theocracy, and religious truth will be universally recognized as objective as any other truth.
Conservatives lament the "rights" the Left has produced in the past few decades, but the Founding Fathers gave us the non-existent "right" to practice idolatry. To condemn lesser sins while treating idolatry as unimportant illustrates an extremely skewed view of things.
IMHO Steve Deace is an excellent alternative.
I believe you are right—we lost the argument when we lost the Morals of the nation—But only a few "Gays" will ever wed. Next battle Polygamy (at least it's in the Bible) and that will be next for the Progressives and their Arab buddies. But, these days will not last forever—each Progressive step takes us to a new America -— a Conservative one. Give em enough rope and...
Vigilantes in Mexico have taken over a corrupt town in Mexico because they've had enough of the ruin. And in America, Rush Limbaugh says we lost and tucks tail. It doesn't have to be that way.
"By allowing decades of Marxist brainwashing to occur in our public schools,"
Nothing more to say.
We are done.
The way marriage could be won back is for the Orthodox religions to band together with any conservative Protestant faiths, to reassert that marriage is "solely" a religious sacrament, and that they will not recognize secular marriage.
This means that they only recognize sacramental marriages that each other conduct. Then different faiths may add to the requirements, but may not subtract from them.
This means that any of their particular faith who are married in other ways must be remarried in their faith, if their faith's rules allow it.
As a group, these religions also must agree to a definition of divorce, and that secular divorce is not recognized, either.
To do this does take some intestinal fortitude on their part, but the alternative is what is being seen in Canada right now, where clergy are forbidden to say things written in the Bible, for fear of being prosecuted.
So it's a simple choice. Stand up for what you believe in, or be swept away by a secular agenda that seeks to destroy you. Doing nothing is not an option.
If this is "lost," then the country is lost.
Let it burn. No country left worth lifting a finger for anymore. Just a pathetic sewer of a country.
And that's just it.
They're far better at messaging. Look at that list you posted, and you can see a logical progression. From a marketing point-of-view, it's brilliant.
...compared to Rush Limbaugh?
Orthodox Christian definition of divorce: Matt 19:6 So they are no longer two but one flesh. What therefore God has joined together, let not man put asunder.
It's that simple.
My mom remembered him from back in the day. She said you wouldn't know it by looking at him, but he was a talented musician once and, evidently, a very handsome young man.
Apparently, he caught syphilis and it ran its course. She let that sink in. Mom was almost a generation older than my friends parents. Medicine was different then, both in her day before and during The War and ours sitting in that 1973 GM car.
Growing up in small towns and seeing real life examples of the various consequences of years earlier behavior, whether missing fingers lost to a saw or some misbehaving farm equipment or a discombobulated brain and nervous system from not wearing a lead-lined prophylactics, or whatever it might have been, seeing them around me was helpful negative feedback for "getting my mind right" and avoiding similar consequences.
Things are different now...or so they seem. We've removed some of the negative feedback. Medicine has made acceptable and convenient what was once taboo and often deadly. I remember when AIDS first appeared and famous people began dying ugly deaths from this new mysterious illness.
I remember being surprised when I would hear that so and so was "gay", only that's not the word most people used. Whether famous people or the not so famous, all died slow, very scary ugly deaths.
Once we figured out that straight people could get it, and not just from a transfusion, real fear set in, and all around, briefly.
I remembered the occasional WWII VD posters when I was growing up. I remembered how things were prior to our guinea pigging those first vaccines against the deadly diseases once common to childhood. There was talk about what to do with this new epidemic. Would we lock "them" up and isolate? What if their blood got on you? If they sneezed on you? We fear what we dont understand, especially if it can kill us.
Medicine has removed the danger and with time, weve lost the fear, discarded the stigmas and moved forward, passing through acceptance, all the way to open armed embrace.
Interesting how far we've come down a once forbidden road, and so fast!
And, interesting that a deadly disease, something that once would have motivated an entirely different set and subsets of behaviors, is now, instead, an unnoticed stepping stone on that road, along the way to that embrace and beyond.
But, beyond to what? On this road weve been taken, what lies ahead? Is this a crossroads or an ambush?
This is a test.
There's not much to disagree with him on this. The issue is lost. Apart from whatever the court does or doesn't do... In the space of about a decade the fickle nature of "public opinion" has done a 180. As an older generation dies off and a fully-indoctrinated younger generation takes over, it is a fait accompli.
It's not a good thing. But it's a done thing.
good video (what I saw...no time for the whole thing)
Exactly, and how does it frame our side? This is the kind of messaging they have been hammering and hammering and hammering. I haven't seen a single good example of a message like this come from our side.
We can't take for granted that because something is right, that the message will naturally be the better one.
We have to start thinking like Democrats in how we market our message. They don't just assume that because they believe their message is right, people will believe it. Instead, they look for any and every opportunity to manipulate the message and the audience to their way of thinking.
We don't have to sacrifice our values but we have to change our approach.
One of big problems is that conservatives can be good at articulating what they believe but not why they believe it. And at some level conservatives are going to have to ask what exactly is it being defended and why? Also conservatives have to ask some basic philosophical questions about modernity. Some difficult ones like why equality is such an overriding goal of modernity? Is there a good argument against equality?
That's what Rush is recognizing, though he didn't say it in so many words.
Bob Dylan said it best....."The Times, They Are A-Changin'."
Come mothers and fathers
Throughout the land
And don't criticize
What you can't understand
Your sons and your daughters
Are beyond your command
Your old road is
Rapidly agin'
Please get out of the new one
If you can't lend your hand
For the times they are a-changin'.
And that pretty eloquently sums it up, whether we like it or not.
I agree. Frankly, I can't think of a good direct way to frame it to most people outside the 'choir'. I have at least gotten several friends away from the liberal position to a libertarian position (I don't even believe in that position but I wanted to at least bleed the libs a bit) by simply making a statement along the lines of 'is there anything we can do any more that doesn't require a government license?'.
I noticed a couple started picking up the 'get government out of it' mantra instead of the 'make it legal' mantra.
I had a comment I made to a gay friend that got him thinking and I've seen him repeat it (he was already libertarian so it fit his thinking.) 'Do you really want the government keeping lists of who is gay?'
For the masses though who aren't die-hard Conservatives, I have trouble thinking of a good manipulative argument to contrast what the left has come up with on this one. They have painted our side into a corner marketing wise.
The only argument against the idea of equality is that nature itself is a hierarchial institution. There will always be the dominant who have the natural right to wield power over the weak.
And we all know who made that argument most fervently in the Twentieth Century. He had a Charlie Chaplin mustache.
Oh yeah, and he led his country to ruin and destruction.
And that explains the problem precisely. It was never about "equality" in the first place. It was about, in the space of just a few years, the most radical change to civilization since the Bronze Age. A younger, dumber generation doesn't have the perspective yet to see that perhaps not everything that happened before they arrived was without value. Keep in mind... The generation that is now running things watches "The Daily Show" as their ONLY news source.
Sad truth is that we've lost the war on homosexuality & transexuality (worse than gays). In 1992, the discussion would be that there is something wrong with gay/lesbian behaviors & that there is something wrong with sex change mutilations-they must make it a crime to do sex changes.
But since 2000, discussion mainly is about marriage. & it's not Democrat/Republican. Too many Republicans are apologists for gay/lesbian behaviors, so not a Democrat/Republican topic. Too many young people (those under 30 years old) see nothing wrong with gayism/lesbianism. When people see nothing wrong with gay/lesbian behaviors, then marriage becomes inevitable as Mr. Rush H. Limbaugh said. All you posters who are my age (born 1969) & older know that when it comes to information war, we have lost this on the gay/lesbian topic because too many young people (again those under 30 years old) see nothing wrong with gayism/lesbianism & transexuality & this isn't 1992 anymore where many to most people would agree with us that there's something wrong with gayism, lesbianism & transexuality.
You're right. Especially when things such as California public schools having a day to honor homosexual statutory rapist Harvey B. Milk along with fairy tales of Laramie Project are done in public schools with taxpayer $s, where opposing views are censored.
While gays/lesbians have filthy sexual behaviors, if gays & lesbians want to privately honor homosexual statutory rapist Harvey B. Milk & not push their views on schoolchildren, then that's 1 thing. But what's sad is that they do it in public schools & kids who tell truth of who Harvey B. Milk was get censored.
Must say that the Laramie Project & the Shepard Foundation which includes Judy Peck Shepard see nothing wrong with Harvey B. Milk committing homosexual statutory rape on a 16 year old boy in 1964. With Laramie Project & Judy Peck Shepard, honestly, Judy Peck Shepard's interest is to profit from her son's death by writing a book & she makes money off of this. These other things are more proof that we have lost information war that too many people see nothing wrong with gayism/lesbianism & transexuality, especially when public schools in California require students to honor homosexual statutory rapist Harvey B. Milk.
I guess it depends on one's perspective. I am not saying there won't be some kind of perversion of the institution of marriage...but as far as I know, no civilization has lasted that has embraced and celebrated sodomy.
The namesake city, for instance—Sodom. Or the Greeks. Or Roman Empire.
And the United States is not immune—as she has continued to murder unborn innocents, enslave millions into dependence, and now seemingly moving toward a celebration of perversion, she will also suffer dire consequences.
Revival is what is needed: a spiritual awakening, and God is capable of saving and redeeming a people out of this wickedness. A remnant, if you will, can stand and be witnesses to His truth.
So "lost" might be accurate in a limited political sense, but not all of life is political. We are creatures beyond political ones.
Rush knows that, deep down, I think...Certainly we should.
One possible solution I have thought about is for the name of the institution to be changed to "Holy Matrimony"....I know that is not a "new" term, but the secular world can embrace "marriage" all they want, perhaps. We who follow Christ ought to take the vows seriously and recognize that Holy Matrimony is only between a man and woman.
By the way, I believe the church as a whole was blind to the slippery slope when easy divorces became available...it didn't really take a stand for keeping couples together, and when marriage became easy to dissolve ("we just don't love each other any more" nonsense) the churches of America should have been stronger in resisting this trend.
Not to mention next on the agenda, constitutional right to have more then one wife or husband...Like one of the SC Judges asked, "where does it end with constitutional rights? Polygamy? Brothers and sisters getting married? Opens the door to what is fair, equal and constitutional right. For many years, homosexuality was thought of as immoral. Fast forward, media, activists have won the battle to make it moral using the "hate" mode of operation. So- next, polygamists will want their rights too....
Screw you and your defeatism, gasbag.
He stopped mentioning the homo agenda 2 decades ago. I started listening to him when he was local in Sacramento and he was pretty good. After a few years he turned gasbag, and a while after that he stopped even mentioning the homo nazi agenda. Or a lot of other vital issues. He keeps it light, acceptable, and self serving.
Maybe if he had told the truth about the "gay" life and the homo nazi agenda more people would know the truth.
He's a defeat, and he assisted the defeat.
Well that's all true, but it has nothing to do with what Rush was talking about. He was merely observing that the battle has been lost.
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text:
Draft and Trade Talk Message Board
Good trade or bad trade
I am in a 10 team roto 5x5 (auction draft) keeper league. I was offered CJ Wilson, Longoria and R Soriano for Shelby Miller and Craig Kimbrel. My current roster looks like this. Posey, C Davis, Kinsler, Rendon, E Cabrera, Beltran, Bruce Gordon, Bourne. Bench P Sandoval, A Cabrera, iglesias, Rizzo and Granderson. Pitching I have Corbin, Gio, Kimbrel, Miller, Perkins, Sanchez. Pitching Bench Cingrani, Medlen, Parker.
Would you make this trade. To me it gives me 1 quality 3b which I think my team is lacking. Is it worth Miller.Sort: Newest | Oldest | Most Replied Expand all replies
Pascal the Gambler Pascal the Gambler Jul 8, 2013 16:16 Flag
I don;t see the point. Kimbrel is better than Soriano (and way younger), and CJ Wilson sucks. You get Longo, but you don't really need him.
I would do the trade. Soriano is not far off from Kimbrel. Miller is better than Wilson, but Longo MORE than makes up for that.
I would do the trade, but it's close because it does hurt your already weak SP. I'd see if you can get a better SP back than CJ, but probably pull the trigger even if you can't. Longo is a nice upgrade for you.
Answer my "I have Reyes/Tulo/Segura" post please.
- 1 Reply to John
For you I would say since Tulo is hurt I play Reyes. I know Segura is having a great year, but I go with the veteran. You think my starting pitching is that weak? 1 pitcher is my starting lineup has an era over 3. Thats Gio and I would consider him an Ace.
Help please


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The Prairie View AM Panthers and Lady Panthers Profile...Team Chat
Conference: SWAC
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Prairie View AM Conference Changes over the years...
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First Game: 1963-12-14, vs. Saint Johns (L, 27 - 33)
Overall Record: 13-35-1 (49 Games)
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- Report: #767091
Report - Rebuttal - Arbitrate
Complaint Review: Highmark Blue Cross Blue Shield
Highmark Blue Cross Blue Shield5th Avenue Place, Pittsburgh, Pa 15222 Internet United States of America
Highmark Blue Cross Blue Shield Terrible working environment Internet
*UPDATE EX-employee responds: I absolutely agree
*UPDATE EX-employee responds: Agreed
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Marmol and Berg Make Pilgrimage to Fitch
Carlos Marmol threw a nine-pitch 1-2-3 1st inning (K, F-9, P-5), Jose Valdez singled, tripled, stole two bases, scored two runs, and drove-in another, and D. J. Fitzgerald clubbed a two-run HR onto 8th Steeet, leading the Daytona Cubs to a 4-1 victory over the Inland Empire 66ers (Angels Advanced Class "A" affiliate) on Field #3, while Justin Berg allowed three runs on two hits and two walks in his one inning of work, as the Cedar Rapids Kernels (Angels Class "A" affiliate) drubbed the Peoria Chiefs 9-1 on Field #2, in Cactus League Minor League action at Fitch Park this afternoon.
Marmol and Berg had their scheduled outings rained-out yesterday, which is why both threw in games at Minor League Camp today.
Cubs 2010 7th round draft pick RHP Ben Wells (Bryant HS – Bryant, AR) was the most impressive pitcher at Fitch Park today, following Berg to the mound on Field #2 and throwing three shutout innings for Peoria, allowing just an infield hit, a bunt single, and a walk, while striking out two, and doing it all on just 29 pitches.
Conversely, RHP Tarlandus Mitchell had a very poor outing for Peoria, getting just one out while allowing a single and walking the bases loaded before getting pulled from the game. Although he throws in the mid-90's, the 5'8 Mitchell has struggled with his control since signing with the Cubs and has yet to pitch in a full-season league.
Pitching for Daytona on Field #2, RHP Justin Bristow (2008 5th round draft pick out of East Carolina) saw his first game action since 2009 (he missed all of last season with an elbow injury), loading the bases on a double and two walks before being relieved without retiring a batter.
Cuban defector Rubi Silva played CF for Peoria today and drew two walks. He also grounded out twice. The 21-year old lefty hitting Silva played for the Cuban Junior National Team prior to defecting, and he is very fast and a Gold Glove caliber CF with a plus-arm. He received a reported $1M bonus when he signed with the Cubs in December.
After a work-out on Field #4, several players from the Extended Spring Training squad (3B Wilson Contreras, OF Reggie Golden, SS Marco Hernandez, and C Brian Inoa) got some late game action with Peoria or Daytona, and two others (OF Xavier Batista and INF Gioskar Amaya) traveled with the Tennessee and Iowa squads to the AA and AAA road games at Tempe Diablo Park. Catcher Hector Suarez, INF Vismeldy Bieneme, and outfielders Dong-Yub Kim, Blair Springfield, and Oliver Zapata were on the bench at Fitch Park but did not play. (Position players from Extended Spring Training are used as late-inning replacements in the minor league games).
Catcher Yaniel Cabeza (another defector from the Cuban Junior National team who signed with the Cubs in December), 1B Richard Jones, 2B Pin-Chieh Chen, ex-Villanova football star Matt Szczur, and OF Kyung-Min Na are assigned to the Peoria squad but did not play today, and catcher Chad Noble is the only position player assigned to Daytona who did not play today. (Cabeza and Noble were the bullpen catchers for their respective squads today).
Here are today's abridged box scores (Cubs players only):
FIELD #2 (CLASS "A" - Peoria vs. Cedar Rapids)
1. Rubi Silva, CF: 0-2 (BB, 4-3, BB, 4-3)
2. Arismendy Alcantara, SS: 1-4 (F-8, 1B, F-7, 5-3, R, SB)
3a. Anthony Giansanti, RF: 1-3 (5-3, 1B, 5-3)
3b. Brian Inoa, PH 0-1 (F-7)
4a. Ryan Cuneo, 1B: 1-3 (F-8, 4-3 FC, 1B, RBI)
4b. Wilson Contreras, PH: 0-1 (6-3)
5a. Chris Huseby, DH-LF: 2-3 (1B, K, 1B)
5b. Reggie Golden, PH: 0-1 (1-3)
6. Max Kwan, C-DH: 1-3 (P-4, 1B, 4-6 FC)
7. Dustin Geiger, 3B: 0-2 (4-3 GIDP, L-9, HBP)
8. Wes Darvill, 2B: 0-3 (F-9, 3-U, 3-1)
9. Cody Shields, LF-DH: 0-3 (5-3, K, F-8)
10. Johan DeJesus, DH-C: 1-3 (1B, 4-3, 6-3)
1. Justin Berg: 1.0 IP, 2 H, 3 R (3 ER), 2 BB, 1 K, 23 pitches (13 strikes), 2/0 GO/FO
2. Ben Wells: 3.0 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 2 K, 29 pitches (18 strikes), 3/3 GO/FO
3. Jeffry Antigua: 2.0 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 PO, 33 pitches (23 strikes), 1/2 GO/FO,
4. Robinson Lopez: 1.0 IP, 2 H, 1 R (1 ER), 2 BB, 0 K, 1 PO, 19 pitches (9 strikes), 1/1 GO/FO)
5. Tarlandus Mitchell: 0.1 IP, 1 H, 4 R ( 2 ER), 3 BB, 0 K, 1 BALK, 25 pitches (9 strikes), 1/0 GO/FO
6. Larry Suarez: 1.2 IP, 2 H, 1 R (0 ER), 1 BB, 1 K, 29 pitches (17strikes), 0/3 GO/FO
1B Ryan Cuneo: E-3 – errant throw to pitcher covering 1st base
2B Wes Darvill: E-4 – dropped pop fly
Max Kwan: 1-3 CS
RF Anthony Giansanti threw out baserunner 9-5 trying to advance from 1st to 3rd on single
FIELD #3 (CLASS "A" ADVANCED - Daytona vs. Inland Empire)
1. Evan Crawford, DH-CF: 1-4 (6-3, 5-3, 3-U, 2B)
2a. Dustin Harrington, 2B: 0-3 (P-4, K, F-9)
2b. Pierre LePage, 2B: 0-1 (P-5)
3. Matt Cerda, 3B-DH: 0-3 (BB, 1-3, 4-3, F-8)
4. Justin Bour, 1B: 0-3 (K, 6-3, F-8, BB)
5. Greg Rohan, DH-3B: 0-4 (K, K, 5-3, F-9)
6a. Francisco Guzman, CF: 0-1 (HBP, 6-3)
6b. Jesus Morelli, RF: 0-2 (F-8, 6-4-3 GIDP)
7a. Sergio Burruel, C: 1-2 (1B, 4-3)
7b. Micah Gibbs, C: 1-1 (1B, R)
8. Jose Valdez, RF-DH: 2-3 (F-7, 1B, 3B, 2 R, RBI, 2 SB)
9a. Elliot Soto, SS: 0-0 (BB, F-8 SF, RBI)
9b. Marco Hernandez, SS: 0-1 (K)
10a. Alvaro Ramirez, LF: 0-2 (F-8, 5-3)
10b. D. J. Fitzgerald, LF: 1-1 (HR, R, 2 RBI)
1. Carlos Marmol: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 K, 9 pitches (6 strikes), 0/2 GO/FO
2. Graham Hicks: 2.0 IP, 3 H, 1 R (1 ER), 1 BB, 2 K, 34 pitches (20 strikes), 1/2 GO/FO
3. Justin Bristow: 0.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 0 K, 16 pitches (7 strikes)
4. Marcus Hatley: 2.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 K, 22 pitches (18 strikes), 2/1 GO/FO)
5. Danny Keefe: 2.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 K, 25 pitches (16 strikes), 2/2 GO/FO
6. Jordan Latham: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 0 K, 11 pitches (6 strikes), 1/2 GO/FO
Sergio Burruel: 1-5 CS
WEATHER: Sunny, with temperatures in the 70's
Re: Marmol and Berg Make Pilgrimage to Fitch
Fwiw, I was at the big club's game from about the second through the top of the seventh. Highlights from the lawn seats? #3 for LA (Paul?) made a couple highlight reel catches in CF, Fuk helicoptered into the ground pretty bad at one point, and a startling turn of Cubbery when DeWitt tripled to lead off an inning and was followed by K, K, BB (Fuk), and K.
That said, I got to shake hands at Sluggo's after Sunday's game with Moreland, Dernier, and Willie Wilson. Class acts all of them. Granted, he's on the payroll, but Bobby D expressed a lot of enthusiasm about the youngsters coming up the next few years, told me to 'Keep the faith.' Made me wanna be able to come back here every year. Bobby Dernier was who you pretended you were stealing bases when I was a kid. Awesome people, Zonk told a great story about a death threat he got in NY in (I believe he said) '84.
Re: Marmol and Berg Make Pilgrimage to Fitch
Cubs should definitely be the team to bring back the golf cart rides from the bullpen to the mound ... but only for those pitchers hand-picked by Gary Hughes.
Re: Marmol and Berg Make Pilgrimage to Fitch
Thanks for these updates.
Some quick questions:
How has Ben Wells velocity been this spring? IIRC, last fall, you mentioned that, since Wells was slowly working his way back, he was working only in the upper 80's/low 90's. Pre-draft reports suggested that he was able to run it up to the mid-90's on occasion. Was wondering if his velocity was better now.
Looks like a poor outing for Bristow, but how has he looked overall? I remember the end of 2009, when he was looking like a really nice prospect with some breakout potential and was running his fastball in the mid-90's. I know Fleita has reportedly said that he's good to go, but curious what your take is.
I know Gioskar Amaya has been said to be a good athlete, but not a quick-twitch type. Do you think he has a shot of sticking at short? Profile sounds loosely similar to some of the recent young Cubs Latin American middle infield talent.
Re: Marmol and Berg Make Pilgrimage to Fitch
Have you seen Simpson throw a pitch yet? I'm anxious to see him finally throw and see if his stuff is as advertised after the draft. Hopefully he won't feel too much pressure after being picked early and then not throwing for the team for a year.
Re: Marmol and Berg Make Pilgrimage to Fitch
Thanks for the response. In terms of downward movement and potential releases, is there anyone in minor league camp that you've seen or heard about that might be at risk, like say a Dan McDaniel last year, who if I recall correctly, was one of the final cuts.
Disappointing to hear Lopez look bad, but not that surprising. If I recall the SAL reports, he was very inconsistent.
Quick query on Antigua - do you think he has the chance to add any velo? He's what, 88-92ish on the fastball?
Re: Marmol and Berg Make Pilgrimage to Fitch
You have no idea how happy I am to see these back. I'm tired of reading about Koyie Hill wasting at bats. I'm happy to hear Rubi Silva is transitioning well. The Cuban Cannon?
Hopefully, this is a sign of things to come for Ben Wells.
Burruel with Daytona's team. Maybe he'll play full season ball this year. Sweet.
Golden looking 'better' yet?
Thanks, as always.
Re: Marmol and Berg Make Pilgrimage to Fitch
I couldn't agree more! I was needing minor league updates something fierce. I love the fact that Rubi Silva took 2 walks. BA said he was a very aggressive hitter that didn't walk much, so this is nice to see.
As always, I greatly appreciate the updates, AZPhil, and please keep them coming!
Re: Marmol and Berg Make Pilgrimage to Fitch
Thanks for the info Phil. On one of the broadcasts over the weekend Kyler Burke pinch hit for the Cubs. Bob Brenly said that he heard from probably his son Michael, that Burke hit in the worst luck ever last year. What group is he with this spring and how does he look?
Re: Marmol and Berg Make Pilgrimage to Fitch
Is Michael the mailman's son?
Re: Marmol and Berg Make Pilgrimage to Fitch
I miss minorleaguesplits.com, but from what you can see at just a quick glance at his stats show that his HR's and walks were cut in half his K's went up about 30%, so even if he hit into bad luck last year, he wasn't good.
Re: Marmol and Berg Make Pilgrimage to Fitch
MILB.com and First Inning have some minor league splits
Re: Marmol and Berg Make Pilgrimage to Fitch
Cool, thanks.
You can see that he had a .271 BABIP last year, on a 19% LD and 38% GB rate, so yeah he was probably unlucky, but add .050 and .075 to his slugging his slash line comes to .262/.329/.403 - still nothing to get excited about, but not totally horrid.
Ironically, luck neutralized, he probably hit about as well as Michael Brenly last year.
I still like Brenly's chances to make it. He just does the same thing ever year - moves a step up and holds his own with the bat.
Down to 36
Maine, Berg, Wellemeyer and Guzman sent down....
From Muskat..
Re: Marmol and Berg Make Pilgrimage to Fitch
...and Max Ramirez getting an MRI on his left wrist. Apparently he's had problems with that wrist before. (per Rotoworld)
Might they be able to sneak Mighty Max to Iowa in a few weeks with a season start on the DL?
Re: Marmol and Berg Make Pilgrimage to Fitch
Snarcasm. I love it.
Re: Marmol and Berg Make Pilgrimage to Fitch
Phil - is there any serious effort or mechanism that MLB uses to try to ensure that teams do not hide healthy young players on the DL rather than lose them? I assume that there is peer pressure against that sort of thing, but does MLB management play any type of police role to try to prevent it.
I am not saying that there is no injury to Ramirez in particular. I am just wondering about the general situation.
Re: Marmol and Berg Make Pilgrimage to Fitch
No Maine? a little surprising
Z, Dempster, Garza, Wells, Silva or Cashner
Marmol, Wood, Marshall, Grabow,
with Samardzija, Coleman, Russell, Stevens, Looper, Mateo and Silva or Cashner as the 3 other possibilities
Re: Marmol and Berg Make Pilgrimage to Fitch
with Samardzija, Coleman, Russell, Stevens, Looper, Mateo and Silva or Cashner as the 3 other possibilities
Re: Marmol and Berg Make Pilgrimage to Fitch
Angel Guzman is my dark horse candidate.
Re: Marmol and Berg Make Pilgrimage to Fitch
Read above... Guzman got sent down.
Re: Marmol and Berg Make Pilgrimage to Fitch
The article at cubs.com says he showed up without a slider ready to go:
I am a little hazy on what he did to get voted off while Coleman and Russell get to sing another song this week, but three lefties is probably sufficient, assuming Russell makes it.
Re: Marmol and Berg Make Pilgrimage to Fitch
Peter Gammons tweet-
pgammo Interesting scouting report on Chris Davis:"He is the next Carlos Pena"
19 minutes ago
Re: Marmol and Berg Make Pilgrimage to Fitch
Roy Oswald hit in back of head by manny Ramirez line drive.
Walked off on own power.
/wait he's not nl central
Re: Marmol and Berg Make Pilgrimage to Fitch
Re: Marmol and Berg Make Pilgrimage to Fitch
On second thought, it looks like it might have hit him below his head, more on the neck. That couldn't have felt good, though... his neck absorbed nearly all of that velocity.
New Forbes Baseball Franchise Valuations
Forbes out with an article online that will appear in the April 11 issue of Forbes Magazine "Inside Baseball's Debt Disaster" ( http://blogs.forbes.com/monteburke/2011/03/23... ) which for some reason doesn't feature the Cubs and their 75% Debt to Value ratio, worst in Major League Baseball, as exhibit "A."
The Cubs' franchise page can be found here ( http://www.forbes.com/lists/2011/33/baseball-... ). They have the Cubs worth $773 million. If they're right and that's questionable since they got other things wrong like the Ricketts' purchase price wrong (Ricketts' paid $845 million not $700 million) then the club is worth $72 million less than it cost them.
What surprised me (besides claiming Ricketts' paid $700 mil):
Forbes' analyst doesn't seem to know that baseball head coaches are called managers.
Cubs rank 24th in tv ratings?? Is that due to CSN having no audience?
Re: Marmol and Berg Make Pilgrimage to Fitch
"Cubs rank 24th in tv ratings?? Is that due to CSN having no audience?"
Did you see that team last year???!??!
Re: Marmol and Berg Make Pilgrimage to Fitch
They have the Cubs worth $773 million.
There's only two "real" ways to properly value a corporation, when a business isn't being sold. The first, which is the quick and dirty, is the market cap, which can only really be used if the business is pubically traded. The second, is by depreciating it's future cash flows.
The Cubs aren't presently pubicaly traded, so you can throw the market cap method out. That means to get a value for them, you're going to have to use the second method, and you're going to have to do it without things which are pretty important to actually know, like say, income.
The "stock market" moves up and down, and stocks move up and down based on what full time analysts think of the dispartiy between market capitlization, and net future cash flows. So every time you see a stock traded, you have someone in the "know" thinking that the company is over or under valued, and again, these are companies that have to release quarterly reports to the public.
The idea that anyone without inside financial information "knows" what the Cubs books look like, is well, naive at best. Even if all the information was available, you would still have full time experts give you divergent values for the team, and I am talking like $200 million differences.
Not to say the Forbes stuff isn't interesting, but take it with a grain of salt. It should not be treated as gospell. It's not like the Ricketts walked in with a copy of Forbes when they went to buy the Cubs.
Re: Marmol and Berg Make Pilgrimage to Fitch
good stuff, TRN.
Re: Kevin Slowey
Twins would move Slowey for relief help.
Marshall for Slowey?
I'd probably do it.
Re: Marmol and Berg Make Pilgrimage to Fitch
or make Marshall a starter?
Re: Marmol and Berg Make Pilgrimage to Fitch
seems that ship has sailed with the Cubs...
never gonna happen, just throwing it out there
Re: Marmol and Berg Make Pilgrimage to Fitch
i hear ya
Re: Marmol and Berg Make Pilgrimage to Fitch
Yeah, this crossed my mind this morning, though I can't say I had thought specifically of Marshall. Slowey certainly seems more attractive than our current 5th starter options...
Re: Marmol and Berg Make Pilgrimage to Fitch
Hell, you'd trade the Jackson twins, Castillo and McNutt for him ; )
Re: Marmol and Berg Make Pilgrimage to Fitch
I would trade J. Jackson and Castillo probably, but I'm a pretty big Slowey fan. I guess his health would be the big issue that I can't answer.
Twins I assume are looking for an impact reliever, so I figured Marshall would be the asking price.
Be great if Grab-Ass would get it done with the Cubs throwing in $2M.
Re: Marmol and Berg Make Pilgrimage to Fitch
Desperate times call for higher socks
tweet-PWSullivan Carlos Silva has pulled his socks up to just below the knee, apparently in his effort to change his luck.
Re: Marmol and Berg Make Pilgrimage to Fitch
working so far
2-1 Cubs right now through 4, retired something like 15 of 16 last hitters
hello 5th starter
wonder if Cashner goes to pen or Iowa
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socks for pitching coach!
silva's lowered his ERA by 4 points...ha.
Re: Marmol and Berg Make Pilgrimage to Fitch
make that 5 points...neat...kinda...sorta...
Re: Marmol and Berg Make Pilgrimage to Fitch
4 innings = 12 outs... Silva must be pitching really well to have retired that many in 4 innings...
Re: Marmol and Berg Make Pilgrimage to Fitch
I messed up the innings of course
only rough spot was the 1st inning where he gave up a leadoff single and a one out double.
6 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 3 K for the day
retired 15 of 16 after the 1st with a lone single to Ryan Sweeney in the 3rd with 2 outs.
Re: Marmol and Berg Make Pilgrimage to Fitch
I don't know what to make of this, aside from, as crunch points out in a lower post, the Oakland Lineup sucks... Maybe this does open some trade doors, though...
Re: Marmol and Berg Make Pilgrimage to Fitch
i'm being a bit hard on oakland...especially since im not even watching the game.
i just can't believe this is year #2 that oakland has cheaped-out on their bats with such good pitching backing up the club.
that said, there's not a lot exciting about who he faced today. at least his 3Ks came vs. regular season starters.
Re: Marmol and Berg Make Pilgrimage to Fitch
well he was 9-2 with a 2.96 ERA as of July 6th last year
Maddux seems to have some faith in him, wouldn't be surprised if he said he still deserves a shot in yesterday's meetings.
Re: Marmol and Berg Make Pilgrimage to Fitch
The guy makes MILLIONS! Can't he at least show up for camp in shape? Especially after having problems with his heart last year?
Re: Marmol and Berg Make Pilgrimage to Fitch
Re: Marmol and Berg Make Pilgrimage to Fitch
I missed a lot of the second half of last season because I lost interest, but the half I did watch, Silva's game appeared to be to keep the ball low, throw strikes, and make the batter earn it. It's not inconceivable that he'd be rusty and leave some pitches up the first few starts of spring training and he's not a guy that can make an occasional mistake. I'm not saying I've pre-ordered my Silva jersey and I definitely don't expect a 9-2 2.96 ERA in July this year, but he's probably good enough for this team's #5 pitcher. Silva isn't going to be the guy preventing a Cubs playoff berth. Sigh.
Re: Marmol and Berg Make Pilgrimage to Fitch
But don't get me wrong... I mean if it were up to me, he'd be a goner. I'd eat the contract and let some AAA douchebag pitch.
Re: Marmol and Berg Make Pilgrimage to Fitch
Hello trade partner, hopefully.
Re: Marmol and Berg Make Pilgrimage to Fitch
I don't know if this available online or not, but is anyone watching or hearing the game that might be able to note what is different about today's start, other than his socks or that he is getting outs...
Re: Marmol and Berg Make Pilgrimage to Fitch
it probably helps when you're pitching to one of the most piss-poor lineups known to man. oakland keeps amazing me with how they refuse to address their hitting. it's all singles, walks, little-speed, and the occasional (but not occasionally enough) homer.
this is year 2 with amazing pitching and "really?" hitting.
Re: Marmol and Berg Make Pilgrimage to Fitch
/joe morgan
Re: Marmol and Berg Make Pilgrimage to Fitch
They added Crisp, Matsui, Willingham and tried to get Beltre.
Re: Marmol and Berg Make Pilgrimage to Fitch
okay, wtf?
intentionally walking s.moore in a f'n spring training game with 2 out?
hope w.castillo makes oak pay for that bush crap.
-edit- and welly walks...loaded. and soriano hbp...loaded.
Re: Marmol and Berg Make Pilgrimage to Fitch
Walking a guy intentionally to get to a guy that is hitting .700 this spring = questionable?
Re: Marmol and Berg Make Pilgrimage to Fitch
For Your Viewing Pleasure: I'm guessing some of you haven't seen this yet. Rare footage of Ruth and Gehrig together
Farm systems
It's a rainy evening here. Has everyone seen this yet---Baseball America's organizational ratings. Cubs' farm system ranks 16th by their reckoning.
Re: BA Organization Rankings
through the years
2011: 16th
2010: 15th
2009: 27th
2008: 20th
2007: 18th
2006: 15th
2005: 10th
2004: 7th
2003: 3rd
2002: 1st
Recent comments
2nd in defensive WAR, NL.
6th in NL in RBI
Go complain about something else, like, "they never play good against the good teams", or some other shit.
Addy really has trouble breaking through .250 BA -- after his hot streak got him to .251, he has gone 1-for-17.
Thank goodness for Jansen's 2 WP on Friday -- otherwise this would have been a sweep.
There seems to be a direct correlation with overconfidence in the Cubs offense against mediocre/young pitchers and really poor offense against mediocre/young pitchers. So, let's fear the Pirate pitchers!
Rizzo due for a power surge -- one HR in August so far. He truly does hit them in bunches.
Sometimes I'm not as supportive of Cahill as maybe I should be. There, I said it.
Rough 8th inning all around -- HBP, Cahill error, Javy's poor decision.
Oh well - given that the Cubs didn't look like they were going to score, it's better to lose in 9 innings, save the bullpen and get changed for the PJ trip home.
Baez still learning
heyward with his 3rd multi-hit game since the all-star break (all in august)...2nd in the past 3 games during his 7 game hitting streak.
he's gone from flirting with a sub-.300 ob% to nearing .310 ob% in 3 games (1 game was just a 1 for 1 pinch hit appearance). all 5 hits in the past 3 games have come in a row...neat.
stewart with 7Ks through 3ip...of course.
that 10-13 mph difference in his fastball/change is working today...and they're swinging at his crappy slider.
brock stewart...steven brault...fun times for the cubs hitters vs allegedly competitive teams...maybe.
Maddon would have started three lefties against the Dodgers, Montgomery, Zastryzny and Lester, except that he doesn't have the juice to do that. No manager does. Maddon has a boss, Epstein (and probably Hoyer, too), who gave him a starting rotation of five guys including Hammel. Maddon was asked yesterday about the starting group for next year and basically said, Not my call, that's why I drive away in my RV in the summer and occasionally check in, etc.
video of Maddon.
always nice that he actually tries to honestly answer questions. Does mention that he wanted to give Zastr? a chance in a meaningful spot rather than a mop-up role.
from Muskat:
#Cubs Maddon: "I'm not going to make up an excuse for why I did what I did. It has nothing to do with lack of confidence" ... "It was the right thing to do today based on what I saw, what their lineup looked like and Rob Z.'s availability." #Cubs
Hammel not particularly understanding of getting pulled out...as he should. Be curious what Maddon had to say. All I can think of is is keeping arms fresh and maybe wanting to see if Zastr? is worth considering for the playoffs and how he'd do against the Dodgers.
great defense
Heyward, Russell, Baez, Bryant, Ross in particular...although Bryant's a bit hard to judge with all the positions.
Fowler and Rizzo in the top half of the NL for their positions as well (per fangraphs)...Zobrist right at the halfway cutoff for 2b in the NL.
I'm sure some luck is involved too, but the Cubs and Maddon knew what they were doing.


text:
Leadership & Governance
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Men were dressed in leotards, wigs, and gold-sequined skirts, swilling alcohol and laughing at jokes about gay people. It sounds like the sort of scene that, if captured on tape, might get a fraternity kicked off a campus. But it was actually an...
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This Devon Energy acquisition argues for owning Cheniere and Chesapeake in U.S. shale boom
The deal that Devon Energy (DVN) announced on Wednesday, November 20, isn't a bad deal, but I think it's big value for investors is what it says about where the profits are or aren't in the U.S. natural gas and oil from shale boom.
Since 2009 Devon has transformed itself from an oil producer with a big presence in deep water and international discoveries into a producer with a major onshore natural gas and oil shale position in the United States and Canada through $9 billion in asset sales—and through acquisitions like that it announced last week. The company will acquire privately held GeoSouthern Energy for $6 billion in cash. GeoSouthern's assets include 82,000 net acres in the very hot Eagle Ford geology. Those acres produce 53,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day and contain an estimated 400 million barrels of oil equivalent in recoverable reserves.
In terms of rounding out Devon's production profile this is a smart deal—Devon has acquired low risk drilling opportunities—an inventory of about 6 years of drilling inventory—that, according to company projections will show a 25% compound annual production growth rate through 2017.
But the take away lesson here for investors is how efficient the market has become at pricing in acquisitions in the U.S. natural gas and oil shale boom. Credit Suisse calculated on November 21, the day after the deal was reported, that the acquisition would add about $3 a share to Devon's market value. By the close on November 22, Devon's shares had tacked on $2.78 from the November 18 closing price.
In other words the market had priced in the deal, according to Credit Suisse's calculations at least, within days of its public announcement.
This doesn't mean that the Devon acquisition doesn't make solid sense or that Devon isn't a good stock—Credit Suisse calculated a one-year target price of $77 a share.
It does say that the U.S. natural gas and shale boom isn't undiscovered territory anymore. Acquirers today aren't getting big steals on their deals that will pop stocks in the short-term. Investor skepticism about oil and natural gas shales is largely a thing of the past and these productive assets are priced so that acquisitions are taking place at something like full value—when they're not taking place at more than full value as international majors that were late to the party overpay to get an invite.
What this suggests to me is that the biggest profits for investors from this boom will, going forward, come from investments in the best operators—those companies that can bring down drilling costs most quickly—from investments in companies with the biggest acreage position—but where there are doubts about a company's ability to exploit all that acreage—and from investments in companies that are providing infrastructure to get more of the oil and natural gas from this boom to market—and in the process to raise prices for the oil and natural gas produced in this boom.
I think the holdings in my Jubak's Picks portfolio http://jubakpicks.com/the-jubak-picks/ of Chesapeake Energy (CHK) and Cheniere Energy (LNG) fit that profile.
The Devon Energy acquisition last week, I'd argue, supports the logic of owning those stocks at this stage of the U.S. shale boom.
Full disclosure: I don't own shares of any of the companies mentioned in this post in my personal portfolio. When in 2010 I started the mutual fund I manage, Jubak Global Equity Fund http://jubakfund.com/, I liquidated all my individual stock holdings and put the money into the fund. The fund may or may not now own positions in any stock mentioned in this post. The fund did own shares of Cheniere Energy and Chesapeake Energy as of the end of June. For a full list of the stocks in the fund as of the end of June see the fund's portfolio at http://jubakfund.com/about-the-fund/holdings/.
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- Report: #1118025
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Complaint Review: T-Mobile
T-Mobile3080 Richmond Road Lexington, Kentucky USA
T-Mobile Returned iPhone 5S, did not refund my $802.00! Lexington Kentucky
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