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Report summaryThe Guyana Basin is a well-developed half-graben, passive margin basin. It spans French Guiana, Guyana and Suriname, extending from the coastal plain to ultra-deep waters. The basin shares many geological similarities with emerging hydrocarbon plays on the Atlantic Margin of West Africa, including offshore Ghana, where the giant Jubilee discovery was made. The Liza discovery offshore Guyana is drawing explorers to neighbouring countries to the west of French Guiana. However, the poor appraisal results of the deepwater Zaedyus discovery, coupled with other exploration disappointments here, throws doubt on the prospectivity of this portion of the basin. There are no announced exploration plans and future drilling in the basin appears bleak at least in the near term.
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This report includes 2 file(s)
- French Guiana Guyana exploration basin PDF - 3.97 MB 27 Pages, 21 Tables, 28 Figures
- French Guiana Guyana.zip ZIP - 2.61 MB


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About Upcoming Events
What You Don't Know About Marketing Your Business Online Is Costing You a Fortune
An effective online marketing strategy is essential today. Who's in control of yours? Most business owners are in control of every aspect of their business. They have at least a baseline level of knowledge of how to do all tasks and manage their people and processes necessary for the business to run…EXCEPT the online marketing.
You Can't Manage What You Don't Understand…But You CAN Understand…It's Easier Than You Think!
Marketing your business effectively online is essential today. But if you don't have a basic understanding of it, can you really expect a profitable outcome?Andrew Mazer of Mazer Marketing delivers a powerful seminar and consultation in plain language any business owner can understand. Watch the video below. Then, below the video, you can read all the details about the 1/2-day seminar/workshop/consultation.
The Business Owner's Guide To Marketing Online Seminar-Workshop-Consultation
Getting new customers and keeping them coming back for more is the heart and soul of a strong business. The internet makes it easier and cheaper than ever before. You're going to leave my seminar with specific plans which will make your website, social media AND your traditional advertising more effective. You will be amazed and how simple and easy this stuff really is.This is NOT your average seminar where you go back to your business and forget what you've learned. Here's what you get:
A Pre-Seminar Consultation
After you register for the event, Andrew will set up a 10-15 minute consultation call. In this call, you will discuss what's working, what's not working, and where you think you need the most help. Andrew will then visit your website, your social media activity and the current state of your online presence to be sure you get the most possible benefit from the seminar.
A 3-Hour Seminar
In this seminar, Andrew will cover the techniques he's been using to market his own businesses online since year 2000 plus those of his clients. "There's nothing fancy or cutting-edge about what I do. These are fundamentals of marketing applied to the online platform. They're easy to understand, they're easy to implement, and they work." The content will cover all the points discussed in the pre-seminar consultation with specific what-to-do and how-to-do-it instructions.
A 30-Minute Follow Up Coaching Call
Life and business tend to get in the way of implementation. The inspiration of what we've learned and were excited about in seminars sometimes fades. That's why we have a 30-minute coaching call included in the tuition 30-60 days after the seminar.Each of the 7 Fundamentals Work Independently of One Another. Combined, Expect Explosive ResultsSome of the things I'll be teaching are:
Some of the things I'll be teaching are:
My course comes with a 100% Money-Back Satisfaction Guarantee. If you're not completely satisfied you got significantly more value than the tuition price your money will be fully refunded. Go home and request your refund by email…no awkwardness! No embarrassment. No questions asked!
For details about a private consultation, call 1-866-799-2825

subset: commoncrawl


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Series: Naturalist's Guides - World
By: Laurence G Kirton(Author)
176 pages, ~300 colour photos, 2 b/w line drawings, 1 colour map
This easy-to-use identification guide to the 280 butterfly species most commonly seen in Peninsular Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand is perfect for residents and visitors alike. High quality photographs from the area's top nature photographers are accompanied by detailed species descriptions that include nomenclature, size, distribution, habits and habitat. The user-friendly introduction covers geography and climate, vegetation, taxonomy and the main sites for viewing the listed species. Also included is an all-important classification of all of the butterflies of the region.
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Hungry Girl's Veg-Meatball Stuffed Pita
Be the first to review
READY IN: 20mins
Recipe by Iloveyummychums
pita stuffed with veggie meatballs. saucy meatball stuffed pita bread, you may swear off the real ones for good (and so guilt-free)
See Discussion:
Ingredients Nutrition
- 2 ounces Boca meatless ground burger (or 2 oz. of another cooked ground beef substitute)
- 2 tablespoons Egg Beaters egg substitute, Original
- 2 tablespoons minced onions
- 1⁄8 teaspoon salt
- 1⁄4 teaspoon garlic powder
- 1 tablespoon ketchup
- 1 western bagel alternative pita bread (or another low-calorie pita*)
- 1⁄4 cup canned fat-free tomato sauce
- pepper (optional)
- additional salt (optional)
- garlic powder (optional)
Directions See How It's Made
- Directions:.
- Begin by preheating oven to 400 degrees. Slice the pita across 2 inches from the top to create a pocket. Take this extra piece of pita, open it up, and cut into very tiny pieces. Place pita crumbs in a dish and cover with Egg Beaters; allow crumbs to soak up liquid for a few minutes. Defrost Boca crumbles (about 30 seconds in the microwave should do it; you don't want to heat them) and blot away any excess moisture with a paper towel. Next add onion, salt, garlic, ketchup and Boca crumbles to the egg/pita-crumb mixture. Thoroughly mix the ingredients. Set out a small baking pan lined with wax paper and/or sprayed generously with nonstick spray. Using your hands, form "meat" mixture tightly into 3 balls (it's okay if they appear liquid-y; they will solidify upon cooking). Place balls on the baking dish and cook in the oven for 15 minutes. Meanwhile, heat tomato sauce and (if desired) season to taste with salt, pepper, and garlic powder. Gently open pita pocket and toast to your preference (toasting it at least slightly will help keep it from getting soggy from all that hot sauciness!). When meatballs are ready, remove from oven and carefully coat them in the tomato sauce. Gently fill pita pocket with meatballs and sauce. Dig in!


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Shameless US S07E08 HDTV x264-LOL
Season: 07
Episode: 08
Episode Name: You Sold Me the Laundromat, Remember?
Plot: Fiona takes a DIY approach to renovating the laundromat. Lip agrees to go before the school board in hopes of getting reinstated. Meanwhile, Kev's trust in Svetlana wanes even further when the titty van goes missing.
Links: IMDB – RottenTomatoes – TRAiLER
Video : x264
Audio : AAC 2ch 48khz
Aspect Ratio : 16:9
Frame Rate : 23.976024 fps
Watch Online:
Direct Download Links:
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I met this guy at work, Sam. He came up to me with his friends and family. We joked and flirted and he gave me is number.
We texted all night and he invited me rafting. I went, it was him and his friend. We all talked and joked and midday he asked me to put sunscreen on his back and then said I needed some too and put it on me. His friend said 'he's been waiting for that all day'. Sam hugged me bye and I hugged his friend too to be nice. They said they would text me to hang later
BUT I get a text from his friend (Matt), and HE keeps texting me the plans. I found it weird but I went anyway. I get there and they're with some girl, their high school friend, real nice and pretty. At the table the seat they left me was next to Sam and a pole (so I couldn't see Matt well).
But Sam kept talking to the girl and kinda flirting. He'd talk to me too but so would Matt (n Matt rarely talked to the girl). Sam did bring up rafting and the sunscreen thing in front of the girl. But everything seemed so wrong so I was staying quiet. Sam asked if I was tired, I said yeah.
I ran into a friend so I left to say hi. I was gone 10 minutes, to avoid Matt and try to make Sam jealous. When I came back Sam talked to me more, but it died down. Then he said they were going home, and I said I'd stay. Sam hugged me and said 'thanks for showing us around today'. 15 min later I leave and on my way out I see their car, so they never actually left.
So what happened? I thought Sam liked me? Didn't it seem good in the beginning? What did I do?
Does He Not Like Me Anymore? What Happened?
I met this guy at work, Sam. He came up to me with his friends and family. We joked and flirted and he gave me is number.
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Talk to Sam and ask him what's up with him and that girl, he could of been trying to make you jelouse00|00|0
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text: The Information Lab is excited about the next version of Tableau version 9. With the release of the beta, they have already started playing with it and putting it through it's paces. Keep an eye on their blog and social media for updates along the way. Their team can't wait to start telling people about it! Join them on the 13th February to find out more about Tableau 9.0.


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White Orchid Luxurious Body Lotion
With Dictamelia*, grape* and Jojoba Oil*
200 ml, 6.7 fl oz
- Description
- Additional information
- Reviews (0)
- Certification
- Ingredients
Luxurious body lotion, with an exquisite combination of calendula*, grape* and St. John's wort extracts along with jojoba oil* and shea butter*, which nourish, sooth and protect skin from oxidative damage. Enriched with an exotic, delicate scent of white orchids, that awakens your senses and offers to your skin a velvety sensation.
Apply morning and/or evening, ideally after shower or bath, on towel dried skin. Massage gently until fully absorbed.
Organic Content:89.59% of total
Additional information
|0.51 lbs
There are no reviews yet.
AIAB-ICEA / IT 055 BC No 055
Salvia Officinalis (Sage) Flower/Leaf/ Stem Water*, Olea europaea (olive) fruit oil, Glycine soya (soybean) oil, Glycerin*, Sodium stearoyl lactylate, Polyglyceryl-3 Stearate, Helianthus annus (Sunflower) Seed oil*, Parfum (Fragrance)**, Glyceryl Stearate, Butyrospermum parkii butter/Shea butter*, Aloe balbadensis Leaf Juice*, Cetearyl Alcohol, Benzyl Alcohol, Glyceryl stearate citrate, Aqua (Water), Origanum Dictamnus Flower/Leaf/ Stem Extract*, Xanthan Gum, Hypericum Perforatum (St' Johns Wort) Extract*, Potassium Sorbate, Vitis vinifera (Grape) Fruit Extract*, Dehydroacetic acid, Rosmarinus Officinalis (Rosemary) Leaf Extract*, Calendula Officinalis Flower Extract*, Limonene***,
* Ingredients from certified organic cultivation, ** Natural Essential Oils


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What is JotForm?
JotForm is a free online form builder which helps you create online forms without writing a single line of code. No sign-up required.
At JotForm, we want to make sure that you're getting the online form builder help that you need. Our friendly customer support team is available 24/7.
We believe that if one user has a question, there could be more users who may have the same question. This is why many of our support forum threads are public and available to be searched and viewed. If you'd like help immediately, feel free to search for a similar question, or submit your question or concern.
Based on what you have mentioned, I do believe that you mean the options in the dropdown fields.
If that is true, then it would not be possible to set up the options.
Basically the dropdown is there to either specify if you are checking the specific value (yes) or leaving it unchecked (nothing selected or No selected).
There is no way to change the Yes and No in the same.
Do of course let us know if that is not what you meant.


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Pineapple Upside Down Bundt Cake
READY IN: 55mins
Recipe by Nanita
I love bundt cakes because they are so easy to serve. I found this recipe on a camping website and adapted it for use in the home kitchen instead of on the camp fire! It comes out great and it will be the easiest pineapple upside down cake you'll ever serve!
Top Review by ocean princess
I made this cake with a can of sliced peaches and maraschino cherries.
I followed the same recipe but first line with peaches and a cherry in between.
Gave away as a present!
See Discussion:65 Reviews 5 Tweaks 1 Q&A
Ingredients Nutrition
- 1 (20 ounce) can crushed pineapple, drained (reserve juice)
- 1⁄2 cup brown sugar
- 2 tablespoons butter
- maraschino cherry, halves
- 1 (18 ounce) box pineapple cake mix (I used Betty Crocker Pineapple Cake Mix) or 1 (18 ounce) box yellow cake mix (I used Betty Crocker Pineapple Cake Mix)
- 3 eggs
- 1 1⁄4 cups water (use part reserved pineapple juice)
- 1⁄3 cup oil
Directions See How It's Made
- Preheat oven to 350°F.
- Melt butter in bundt pan in oven.
- Spray cooking spray on the parts of the pan that aren't covered by the melted butter.
- Sprinkle brown sugar over melted butter.
- Place maraschino cherries on top of sugar.
- Spread crushed pineapple over all.
- Mix cake ingredients according to the package directions regarding time and mixer speeds.
- Pour cake mix over topping ingredients in pan.
- Bake for 40 minutes, until golden brown.
- Test for doneness, knife or toothpick inserted should come out clean.
- Immediately invert onto serving platter and remove pan carefully so none of the topping stays in the pan.
- Cool completely before serving.


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based in Nilüfer / Bursa, TURKEY.
Wanshida is a metal hydraulic baler manufacturer in China, we offer a line of the metal packaging machines such as loose material baler, horizontal metal baler, jaw metal shearing machine, vertical metal hydraulic baler, metal scrap briquetting press, metal crusher, and the metal mill. we have manufactured the metal packaging machines and metal scrap bundle machines for ...
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UNTHA shredding technology is a mechanical engineering company based in Salzburg that specializes in the development and manufacture of industrial shredders, MSW shredders, RDF/SRF shredders, shear shredders and wood shredders for a wide range of applications. UNTHA has many years of experience and a comprehensive knowledge of shredding technology. Thanks to our ...
based in Kuchl, AUSTRIA.
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based in Kippenheim, GERMANY.
ANDRITZ Separation, trusted partner for process solutions for waste water treatment. There is a wide range of challenges in municipal drinking water and waste water treatment: whereas in developing countries the focus is often on setting up a base structure for drinking water and wastewater, in industrialized countries water quality, efficiency and recycling of residual ...
based in Graz, AUSTRIA.
Established for over 40 years, Express Service Engineering Limited (ESEL) specialise in the sale, service and repair of new and used waste and scrap recycling equipment to some of the largest companies throughout the UK and Worldwide. We supply and provide service and spare parts for all makes of recycling equipment including; conveyors, cardboard compactors, ...
based in Brynmenyn, UNITED KINGDOM.
ATM stands for Arnold Technology for Metalrecycling - based on more than 80 years of experience and is a leading company of ASCO Group. Our company engineers, plans, produces and services metal-recycling-systems for the treatment of secondary raw materials. The basis of our integrated solutions is our market leading engineering knowledge, our in-house-production of ...
based in Fohnsdorf, AUSTRIA.
Since 1994, REI has been an industry leader, providing customers with cutting edge technology to meet their waste and recycling challenges and helping them turn their commercial waste into revenue. REI goes to great lengths to produce equipment that drives a measurable difference in safety, economics, the environment and energy consumption while continuing to offer ...
based in Newton, NORTH CAROLINA (USA).
Bionomic Industries' recently redesigned website. We appreciate your interest in our company and hope you find our new site user-friendly, most informative and helpful in solving your present or future air pollution, emission control, product or waste heat recovery application. As the dominant worldwide leader in providing conventional and advanced gas absorption, ...
based in Mahwah, NEW JERSEY (USA).
PRAB, Inc. is a leading engineer and manufacturer of industrial wastewater filtration and distillation systems. Our broad spectrum of equipment ranges from metal particle separation and filtration, to ultrafiltration, to distillation and evaporation. Industrial wastewater applications include parts washing, surface treatment, industrial cleaning, exhausted oil emulsions, ...
based in Kalamazoo, MICHIGAN (USA).
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I really need to get a new rolling pin. I have heard that heavy rolling pins are the best for fondant. Can anyone recommend their favorite brand of rolling pin? As well as what kind...silicone, marble, ?
3 replies
For fondant I prefer the Wilton rolling pin, both the small and large ones. I use others for various work but prefer the Wilton ones for my fondant work especially because they have the rolling guides that fit on them.
For me WILTON is the best.
Thanks! I appreciate the info!!


text:
What is JotForm?
JotForm is a free online form builder which helps you create online forms without writing a single line of code. No sign-up required.
At JotForm, we want to make sure that you're getting the online form builder help that you need. Our friendly customer support team is available 24/7.
We believe that if one user has a question, there could be more users who may have the same question. This is why many of our support forum threads are public and available to be searched and viewed. If you'd like help immediately, feel free to search for a similar question, or submit your question or concern.
Increase of submission limit problem.Asked by rubelrana77 on March 21, 2014 at 09:56 AM
To increase of submission limit I follow jotform in twitter. As their commetment they should increase my submission limit to 110/month. But it is still 100/month.
Thank you for contacting us.
Can you please try it again I just did some test using my other account and I was able to follow on Twitter withouth any problem. Try clearing your browsers cache before logging in to Jotform and Twitter.


text:
Homeland Insecurity?
Homeland Insecurity?...To ourselves, the single most important issue for the real US economy and financial markets in 2007 is the fate of US residential real estate and the credit markets that support this asset class. Despite all the claims by the Fed that current weakness in housing is "isolated", without sounding too simplistic, we know that historically the character of the housing cycle has indeed had a direct impact on US payroll employment and consumer spending behavior. In other words, at least according to the message of historical experience, housing is anything but isolated. It's an integral part of the ongoing rhythm of the real economy. So as we look into 2007, we suggest that the changing nature of the housing cycle will be very important to real world economic outcomes as well as financial market outcomes. But at least within the context of the current cycle, we believe it's also very important to keep in mind that the changing character of the housing cycle will impact monetary action in perhaps a very big way. In fact, we think this has already started in terms of the Fed being incredibly accepting of ongoing systemic liquidity creation, especially since the summer of last year. Despite the fact that the Fed/Treasury/Administration talks a good game in terms of theoretically being vigilant regarding ongoing inflationary pressures, they are anything but monetary policemen as they are indeed the key provocateurs in monetary expansion (otherwise know as monetary inflation). And given that less and less current financial liquidity is finding its way into the real estate markets, that brings up the possibility that once again monetary excess will find its expression in the financial markets. Can we make the case that the worse it gets for the real world housing cycle, the greater the possibility that liquidity excess allowed to be generated as a counterpoint to the deterioration in housing may impact the financial markets? Moving into 2007, we believe these are the very simple macro dynamics perhaps most important to investment survival.
In the spirit of trying to keep our finger on the reality of the housing cycle and anticipate monetary actions to come, we thought we'd very briefly review current housing cycle dynamics relative to historical experience in an attempt to get a sense for where we are and what may be to come. For anyone who has tuned into the ongoing infomercial that is CNBC as of late, and actually allowed the volume to be turned up, you already know that the favorite pastime of so many of the current commentators spewing "information" on this media platform has now become calling the bottom for the housing cycle. Without question, we fully expect this to continue throughout the year to come and perhaps well beyond. For as you know, we witnessed exactly the same experience six short years ago in yet another asset class when headline and mainstream commentators repeatedly attempted to call the bottom for the tech cycle and its related stocks. But we all know, or should know, how and when asset class cycles truly bottom, right? They bottom when no one is any longer calling for the bottom. They bottom in silence. In terms of housing? At least according to the relatively important cacophonous CNBC chorus of the moment, we're not even close to a bottom. But, as always, that's our opinion. Let's look at the facts, shall we?
Bottoms Up?...So where do we start? With starts, of course. To try to maintain our bearings, we want to have a quick run through the history of residential real estate cycles of the past 45+ years by having a look at housing starts and permits. We ask you, what could be more fundamental and crucial data points for the industry as a whole? (Answer: Not much.) Okay, this is what we've put together. We've gone back and looked at both depth and duration as applied to the history of housing permits and starts data. We're documenting duration (monthly) of peak to trough cycles in terms of starts and permits. And lastly, we've calculated percentage declines in starts and permits over all down cycles. For each we start off with a long term chart followed by a quantitative table that's essentially documenting what you see in the charts. First at bat is the historical cycle of housing starts:
You already know that in the most recent residential real estate cycle we lived through the longest duration in the up cycle for starts on record. It's more than clear above. It just so happens that the recent peak in housing starts was seen in January of 2006, as you'll see in the table below. We're maybe eleven months into the decline. What does history tell us to expect? Just have a look.
|Historical Housing Starts Cycles
|% Decline
|30 mos.
|28 mos.
|43 mos.
|83 mos.
|46 mos.
|11 mos. so far
|29.9% so far
The average cyclical peak to trough decline in starts historically spanned a 46-month time frame. The shortest contraction on record over the past 45 years was twenty-eight months. Can it really be that the current down cycle is done after only eleven months? We think not. Moreover, the average percentage decline in starts from cycle top to bottom historically has been just shy of 62%. So far our current experience has been 30.0%. There's no question that the recent cycle has seen a very steep drop over a compressed period of time, but common sense tells us this is nothing unusual given the prior unprecedented up cycle length. In the past we've pointed out to you the literal unblemished consistency in cycle bottoms at or below 900 thousand in every cycle since 1960. Do we now really bottom at almost twice that level? Moreover, IF we again reach historical cycle bottom experience so clearly visible in the chart on starts, we're set to drop another maybe 45% from here. Has the market already priced that in? Again, we think not. If the bulls are correct and stabilization/bottoming has occurred, as we are increasingly hearing, then this will be the shortest and most shallow down cycle for housing starts on record in a half century at least. Just ask yourself, set against the context of historical experience, are you willing to bet the bottom in starts has already arrived? (Hint: The deck is stacked heavily against you if you called a bottom. Want to try again?)
We'll make this quick. We've gone through the same conceptual process with housing permits as in the case of starts. As you'll see in the chart and in the data, the results are strikingly similar to the starts data and historical message.
|Historical Housing Permits Cycles
|% Decline
|33 mos.
|28 mos.
|40 mos.
|83 mos.
|46 mos.
|11 mos. so far
|31.4% so far
For now, history is very strongly suggesting to us that the bottom calling game in the residential real estate cycle is still in the early innings. As with most asset cycles, we fully expect the real bottom in residential real estate to come when everyone stops the headline media bottom calling. Exactly how it played out with tech stocks over the 2000-2002 period. The pattern of human behavior surrounding cycles of asset class price movements never changes. As Jesse Livermore once said about the financial markets, "only the wallets do (change)". Remember, the real bottom comes when no one is any longer calling for it. We've got a ways to go yet. But the story clearly does not end with starts and permits by any means.
At least for now, and remember we're currently in the midst of the slow calendar period for real estate sales, inventory remains an issue. A big issue. In terms of new homes under construction, isn't it clear that we are simply barely off of major cycle highs at this point? It sure as heck appears so. And this is what Bob Toll calls "dancing on the bottom of the cycle"? With all due respect, we beg to differ. In our view of life, THE issue for both public and private builders at this point is stranded capital, plain and simple. It just so happens that our home state of California is a poster child for this issue. For many a home builder in the wonderful golden state, per lot sunk costs prior to sticking a backhoe in the ground to dig a T-footing foundation can run into six figures without even breathing hard. Entitlement, permit, environmental, utility hook-up, infrastructure costs, etc. have been and continue to be huge. Municipalities have clearly partaken in the current real estate cycle largesse in a big way vis-à-vis fees and costs assessed builders. So when the cycle music stops, many a builder may find itself with huge sunk costs in what are literally buildable lots of the moment, and that's about it. What do builders faced with significant stranded capital do at the top of a cycle? Build faster and move the inventory. It's simply economics 101. If you saw the recent housing starts report, you know exactly what we're talking about. Starts up above expectations, but permits clearly down. In terms of stranded capital in the homebuilding business, it's start'em, build'em and sell'em at this point. It's no wonder the following chart looks as it does. Although we're not industry experts by any means, it sure appears to the untrained eye that we are nowhere near "stabilization", let alone any type of definitive bottom.
In addition to the current level of new homes under construction, the character of housing inventory is further illuminated by the sheer nominal number of homes for sale in the US, again remembering that the current is the slow period for sales. Interestingly, but certainly not surprising by any means, is the fact that the percentage of homes put up for sale in 2006 with either expired listings or taken off the market were at a level not seen in many a moon. Will these folks give selling a second shot in 2007? If so, it's a pretty darn good bet that we've not yet seen the top for this indicator in the current cycle. As is clear, current levels of US homes for sale is really light years above prior historical peaks. And against this context, mainstream commentators are calling for a bottom in housing? C'mon, do you think we're complete idiots?
As a final corollary to residential housing inventory and just where we are in the current cycle is the following historical view of months supply of houses on the market at current sales rates. A few comments if you don't mind. First, looking back over history, we're at a relatively important juncture here. Every single time over the last forty years at least that months supply of homes for sale has been at eight months or above, we've either been entering or in an official recession. No exceptions. We're in the low six month range right now, but it sure seems a good bet this goes higher given the extent and magnitude of the prior up cycle. For now this remains to be seen. Moreover, please be aware that quite importantly, cancellations are not counted in this measure. You already know that it's not uncommon for cancellation rates at the moment among many of the large public homebuilders to run in the 40%+ range. That's one big number.
Secondly, at least in terms of historical experience, spikes in this measure have preceded price softness or declines. After all it's only human nature in action. The first behavioral stage of every asset class cycle decline is denial. And the denial of the moment is over price. Sellers are reluctant to drop prices and buyers reluctant to pay current prices. The character of this data series moving into 2007 should be quite the "tell" as to how the housing cycle plays out.
Finally, notice in the chart above that at prior cycle peaks in the number of homes for sale in the mid-1970's, early 1980's and late 1980's, months supply of homes for sale was well above current cycle experience so far. The explosion in current cycle number of homes for sale suggests months supply at present is nowhere near a peak. We'll just have to see how it all unfolds.
We'll stop here. As you know, we could continue on for pages with charts and commentary pointing out the very meaningful differences in current cycle dynamics relative to historical cycle bottoms. The simple message is that unless we are about to very meaningfully depart from what has been very consistent historical experience, the housing cycle isn't even close to a bottom right here. And yes, these facts certainly will not stop the CNBC carnival barkers from attempting to attract "takers" based on one-off sound bites moving forward. But in terms of the real world, at the end of 3Q 2006, household real estate holdings totaled just shy of $20.5 trillion. Household holdings of common stocks in the same period registered $8.3 trillion. Bottom line? The housing cycle is the key to the real US economy in 2007 as transmitted through US consumer behavior. So far, US consumers have weathered the increasingly darkening skies for domestic real estate quite well. As of 3Q 2006, our friends at Freddie Mac tell us that 89% of refis done were cash out refis. Households clearly continue "to believe". But cycle dynamics sure seem to suggest that "belief" in residential real estate as an ever producing fountain of wealth creation will be more than tested in 2007. Can US households and ultimately investors in US financial markets handle the truth? We're about to find out dead ahead.
Action And Reaction...As is very important to remember at all points in time, what happens in the real economy and what happens in the financial markets, that are ultimately a reflection of economic reality, can be two different things over very short periods of time. As investors, we need to constantly distinguish between the personal need to be right in terms of fundamental outlook and yet putting into actual practice what it takes to make money. In the financial markets, as is true in many physical laws of nature, for every action there is a reaction. And set against the reality of the housing cycle we indeed expect reaction.
Again, although it's a very simplistic comment, the Fed will not sit still and watch housing deteriorate to any meaningful degree in 2007. Why? Because at least historically, the correlation between the US housing cycle and US consumer spending dynamics is about as tight as anything we've ever seen. You can see it clearly in the relationship between the NAHB housing index (National Association of Homebuilders) and the year over year rate of change in real personal consumption expenditures (consumer spending) below.
As has been the case for so long now, liquidity will be the order of the day in terms of counter cyclical artillery to hold back the fallout influence of any further housing cycle deterioration. As we mentioned, it's already well under way. The following chart is again the historical months supply of homes for sale now set against the historical movement of the Fed Funds rate. Highly correlated directionally? You bet.
But what seems quite the differentiating factor in the current period is that during this cycle housing price acceleration was not choked off in large part by restrictive credit. Short rates have clearly influenced the cost of adjustable financing, but the cost of conventional financing is up maybe 100 basis points at present from its current cycle lows. And it's really only in the past month or so that very questionable subprime activities have begun to become problems as witnessed by shifting credit spread activity. Question. Is it really a 100 basis point increase in the cost of conventional financing that is responsible for bringing the greatest residential real estate cycle in history to its knees? We know at this point that current cycle excess has been in both mortgage credit availability and physical supply. So as the current housing cycle continues to play out, we anticipate the Fed will fight any type of continued deterioration every step of the way, as was exactly the case with the tech/greater equity bust early in this decade. Given the leverage both in residential real estate and the US economy as a whole, they really have no other alternative at this point except monetary inflation. Remember, these are not the policemen, but the provocateurs of price inflation. So from a practical standpoint, we need to monitor Fed artillery supply (monetary/liquidity expansion) as well as direction of rounds being fired (to where does the liquidity flow?). And this can and will have a direct impact on financial market outcomes. The more the Fed/Treasury/Administration/Wall Street attempts to fight what we believe will be continued deterioration in the real world of US residential real estate with monetary inflation, the more excess liquidity driven financial speculation may unfold. This has been our immediate history, so why not our immediate future?
We'll leave you with an excerpt from a recent (November '06) Fortune interview with Treasury Secy. Paulson. And we'll also leave you with a question to ponder. Is this personal conjecture on the part of Paulson, or is this simply implicit policy at this point?
Aren't you concerned that GDP growth dropped to 1.6% in the latest quarter? That's kind of anemic, and we've seen a downturn in the housing market. Convince us we're not going to have a recession next year.
"I can't convince you. But as I looked at the third quarter, I felt good because I saw a major correction in the housing market, and I knew that was going to take more than one percentage point off GDP. And then I'm looking at the rest of the economy - strong corporate profits and investment, good growth outside the U.S., strength in the construction sector away from housing, and then an equity market that has gone up and added $1 trillion in value.
I know how much people care about housing. But I would be quite hopeful that through 401(k) plans, pension plans, and elsewhere that the average American is feeling an uplift from the appreciation of the equity market that would be very offsetting to any potential decline in housing."
Please remember, the reality of the US economy and how that reality is mirrored over the short term in financial markets can be two very different things. Being right and making money as investors can be two different things. Especially in today's world of interest rate and credit derivatives mushroom clouds. We know exactly how the Fed/Treasury/Administration/Wall Street reacted to the tech stock bust. Should be really expect anything different conceptually in terms of a reaction to a housing downturn? We think not. Listen to what Paulson said above. Listen. The decline in housing is not going to occur without one big "reaction". Capiche?
Although we are far from being in possession of a crystal ball, given the immediate US circumstances we have just described, what does this portend thematically looking ahead? Personally, we expect sector and overall financial market volatility to increase looking forward. Regardless of the US residential real estate cycle outcomes near term, the clear theme of meaningful long term economic growth in emerging markets (China, India, Brazil, Russia, etc.) remains fully intact. Any type of meaningful softness in these markets driven by US consumer behavior/credit cycle dynamics over the short term should be seen as long term opportunities. If the Fed accelerates its monetary reflation efforts from here, non-dollar investment vehicles as well as investments negatively correlated with the US dollar are deserving of consideration. Global labor arbitrage opportunities remain intact. Any pressure on US corporate profits will only increase labor arbitrage activities. Hence, cash rich global blue chips truly focused on enhancing shareholder value (as opposed to simply supporting stock options programs) remain of interest. Total rate of return, yield tilt, and a defensive sector focus in US markets appears the appropriate stance at this point. Set against historical context, the length of the current economic expansion and equity market up cycle are long in the tooth. Finally, and this is always the case, well defined and executed risk management disciplines are paramount. Long term investment survival is not about hitting home runs. It's all about consistently not striking out.
We wish you and your families a healthy, peaceful and prosperous New Year ahead.


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Ok, this is going to sound pretty dumb but, I have read a lot of things about kissing on this site and I was wondering. The word kissing, what does that mean? Is it a light peck on the cheek or lips? On the hand? Or french? Which kiss would you consider it to be your first kiss? With or without tongue? Or other.?
What do you call 'kissing'?
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What Guys Said 1
Well "a kiss" is just that, one single peck on the lips. "kissing" is more than likely French kissing. None of that hand or cheek crap, wake up girl, this isn't kindergarten. Your first kiss is just a "kiss". Come on girlie I know you've got friends, use them.11|00|0
What Girls Said 1
Ha! A site about kissing? Id like to read this site, what's the link? Lol Well I guess a kiss is when your lips touch, or when someones lips touch someone else anywhere on their body in general. Kissing means the act of many kisses, whether its just closed mouth kisses, open mouth kisses, necking, or Frenching as you said. Lol Uh my first kiss was not romantic at all, I was 13 and it was in a laundry room.00|00|0
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Question: Central banks occasionally engage in liquidity swaps with each other
Central banks occasionally engage in "liquidity swaps" with each other. Plot and interpret the Fed's provision of dollar liquidity swaps (FRED code: SWPT) to other central banks since 2007. To facilitate your interpretation, view the FRED "Notes" about this data series.
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Answer to relevant QuestionsDefine the swap rate and then plot the five-year swap rate (FRED code: MSWP5). Describe a transaction involving the swap rate and the actions of the participating parties.If a computer game costs $30 in the United States and £26 in United Kingdom, what is the real "computer game" exchange rate? Look up the current dollar-pound exchange rate in a newspaper or an online source, and ...Using the model of demand and supply for U.S. dollars, what would you expect to happen to the U.S. dollar exchange rate if, in light of a worsening geopolitical situation, Americans viewed foreign bonds as more risky than ...What does the theory of purchasing power parity predict in the long run regarding the inflation rate of a country that fixes its exchange rate to the U.S. dollar?The Internet can have a significant influence on asymmetric information problems.a. How can the Internet help to solve information problems?b. Can the Internet compound some information problems?c. On which problem would the ...
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Just got word from badass artist and all around cool guy Gary Pullin (the man responsible for our sexy-ass logo) that he's got a brand-new shirt design, which he calls "a tribute to the classic horror films of the early '70s and skate graphics of the '80s". That was a damn fine time for skate graphics! Just click on the graphic below to see the whole thing, then click here to hit Gary's site to pre-order one. While you're there, be sure to look around; Gary's got himself a very sexy home on the Web!
Wish to God you could draw as good as this man in our forums!


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Both Greenlight Bookstore locations are open today in spite of the snow! Our hours may be adjusted to allow our staff to get home safely; we'll post updates here and on social media.
Tonight's event in Fort Greene with Katie Kitamura has been postponed because of the winter storm. The new date is Thursday, March 2, when Katie will discuss her new novel A Separation with Rivka Galchen (RSVP here).
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I found myself listening to songs my girl liked amd I liked a few of them. Not so much the words but the vocal range gave me a rush sometimes. Does that sound normal?
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I listen to male vocalists all the time. As long as the person rocks I don't see why you should be ashamed.00|00|0


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| Southern Az Smokin Eagles Chapter Meetings:2nd Sunday of every month.Tracy Contact Email: email@example.com
or 5202342362 1/4 Horse RV790 W.Green Lane #34 Benson AZ 85602
|HIGH COUNTRY AREA Meeting: Second Sunday of each month. location and time varies. Contact Director for info.. Contact Bill Magby
@ 928-442-6310 for more info.
|Superstition Area Chapter
We meet every third Sunday of the month at the following location:
Linda's Hoosier Cafe 2 located 1535 E. Old West Highway Apache Junction, AZ (ph) 480-982-1231.
Join us for breakfast at 9:00am, meeting starts at 10:00am. This location will continue throughout the winter months.
Point of Contact: Ben Vega Chapter Director (602) 826-9380 (cell) or email: firstname.lastname@example.com
Thank You
Ben Vega
Superstition Chapter, BTW
BTW Central AZ Sidewinders : The meeting will be held this month on 06/05/2016 at Rock N Ronnie's located at 10262 East Main St
in Apache Junction, AZ between Crismon & Signal Butte on the north side of Main. Time of Day: 1:00pm Contact Flo Southworth
Email email@example.com Phone: 480-250-6952
ARKANSAS STATE MEETING state meeting,ar. state meeting for all members,and any new contacts,everyone is encouraged to attend. bring any new contacts,topics will be old news and new news,all public & btw members are welcome to attend. Western Sizzlin Steak House Hyw. 65 Clinton AR. noon eat---1:00 pm meeting for more info: contact Jim Anderson, email@example.com 501-388-1680
Freedom Riders" Harrison, AR. Monthly Meeting: The "Freedom Riders of Northwest Arkansas" Chapter meetings are held the 1st (first) Monday of every month, usually at 6 PM. Meetings are held at different locations around the Harrison, Arkansas area. Contact the Chapter Director, Cathy "Cat" Schoubroeck (870) 715-9507, for meeting location and time (if different
|San Diego Chapter Meeting
Every second sunday of the Month, 11:30 am. We meet for lunch at local restaurants the location varies. Information can be found on our website at http://scotties-world.com/sdbtw/ or contact Scottie at firstname.lastname@example.com or 619-426-1884
Central Valley Chapter BTW Second Saturday of each month 9AM 4020 N Cedar North of Cedar & Dakota Ride after meeting with Chapter members! We are once again doing a lot of rides now that the valley is cooling off. Last weekend we rode to Hume Lake up in the Sierra Mountains. The High Sierras are wonderful this time of year and we will have many more rides ! Come join us when you can !! The great Northeast-Wind Rider Trikers hosted 10 members of our group up in Live Oak, Ca. and it was lots of fun ! A wonderful weekend with fun rides and a great dinner !! BTW members from a couple other chapters joined the rides ,we was an impressive group totaling 20 trikes going down the highway !! Don't forget the California Madera Oct. Trike-In 10/20 thru 10/23/16 Our Road Captains are planning two great rides for the weekend- Friday at Noon and Saturday Morning Poker run !! Hope to see you all there, bright eyed and ready to ride !!
|California's Long Beach Cruisers We meet every other month on the first Sunday of the month. The opposite months are on Saturdays witch we try to have a run planned for that day. Meetings are held at various locations On August the 29th we had our 4th annual picnic and we had a great turn out. We had several members from San Diego, High Dessert, and San Gabriel chapters along with several members of the San Diego Spyder Ryders come out to join us. We would like to thank everybody who came as it was a great day. On September 19th Eugene, Michele, Don, Andrea, Fran, Cowboy (Roy), Chris took part in the Bellflower, CA car show and we would like to congratulate Fran Grove for bringing home the award for "Best motorcycle." On September 20th Eugene, Michele, Don, Andrea, Cowboy (Roy), and Chris were great full to be invited by the San Diego Spyder Ryders to participate in the Ride for Kids (Pediatric Brain Tumor Foundation). We had a great time unfortunately Cowboy (Roy Rodgers) ended up with a broken ankle. All in all the day was good and we had a great time. On September 26th Robert (San Garbriel), Don, Andrea, Chris, Eugene, and Michele participated in the Historical Route 66 Parade and Car show in Duarte, CA. Eugene brought home the "Peoples -choice award for Best Bike" On the 16th a couple of us will make that drive North for the California State Trike to Madera. Please contact Andrea Kimes @ 310-993-6329 with any questions.
|The Pikes Peak Trikers meet the first Thursday of every month at International House of Pancakes (IHOP) at 6005 Constitution Ave, Colorado Springs, CO at 6:30 pm
|Brothers Ocala Chapter, meets at Cal`s Place Diner, Belleview rt. 25, 1/4
mile east the railroad tracks on the right. 9am for breakfast 10am
meeting.For more info call J.B (352)216-9704 or Carol Ann at 352-286-4276
|Long Beach Cruisers Meeting: Every other month on the 1st Sunday of the month & the alternating months to be first Saturday of month. Saturday meetings, we are trying to plan runs to be that day when suitable for everybody. Time is at 10:00 am unless a run is planned and the location is currently at Glory Days in Seal Beach until further notice. August 29th is the Long Beach Cruisers 4th Annual Picnic at Miles Square Park in Fountain Valley. So far we have quite a few people who have RSVP'd. We are hoping to have a very nice turn out. The Long Beach Cruisers are paying for a taco truck for food and there are numerous games that are planned. We will like to welcome Michele Serre and Christian Ezar to the Long Beach Chapter of BTW. Please contact Andrea Kimes 310-993-6329 or email@example.com for any questions.
|Northeast Georgia Trikers Northeast Georgia Trikers July 9th 2017 at 11am 3651 Dawson Forest Rd.E. Dawsonville, Ga. 30534
|EAGLE ROCK RIDERS MEETING: 3rd. Saturday of the month 11:00 AM Winter - 10:00 Summer Location to be determined at each meeting For more info contact Jim Fiser, email@example.com or 815-281- 0278
| Too Much Fun Bunch Monthly Chapter Meeting: At 9am on 03/08/2015 Meeting at Momma Rosa's in Michigan City at 9am. All Meetings are the second sunday of the month at Momma Rosa's until Spring (or warmer weather.) Planning events trike-in and places that we would like to go. Contact Ed Cooney firstname.lastname@example.com or 219-214-5672 Location: Momma Rosa's resturant, 402 US 20 Michigan City IN 46360 Food available to purchase. All BTW Members invited and anyone interested in seeing what we do. Discuss and start planning for the year.
|City of Firsts Trikers Meeting: 2pm on the 2nd Sat of the month, locations vary. We are riding when weather permits which is more often. The entire chapter is looking forward to the Central States Regional in Kentucky. We have some local rides scheduled to the Indiana Dunes and various other locations in the state. Call our director for details Jim Langsdorf
765-481-8859. email@example.com
Iowa State Meeting: Next State Meeting August 19 2017 at Holmdahl Park at 4:00 Kellogg Iowa call Dave 641 -792-8127 or email firstname.lastname@example.com 641-831-0637 http://www.
IOWA HEARTLAND TRIKERS meeting: on 4th Sunday at 2:00 4th Sunday of Month 2:OO PM Max's Hiway Diner - Flying J truck stop I 80 & Exit 142 Altoona Iowa For more info call Dave 641 -792-8127 or email email@example.com JOIN OUR FACEBOOK GROUP BTW TRIKERS IOWA BROTHERS OF THE THIRD WHEEL http://www.iowastatebtwchapter.com http://www.iowaheartlandtrikers.com
NW Lake Tripods Chapter Meeting. Last Sunday of the month 2p.m. Los Pueblos Mexican Grill Arnolds Park, IA Contact Bob Kepler for more info at 612-209-2330 0r email@example.com
link http://iowatripodstrikers.com
|SiouxLand Trikers, SiouxLand Trikers meeting March 2, 2017, 6pm, Correctionville, Iowa at the Driftwood Pizza. For mor info contact Fred firstname.lastname@example.com
|SouthEast Kansas Chapter Meeting:SEK Trikers meet every 3rd Sunday at 2:30. Location moves around so please contact Ray Scales At 620-238-1844 or E-mail firstname.lastname@example.com
Kentucky State BTW Meeting
|OZARK MOUNTAIN Trikers, meeting: 3rd Saturday each month, meet and greet at 11:00. Each month meet at different places. This month July 18th, at Twin Bridges, East on Hwy 14 from A.v.a. Missouri. for more info contact Mr. Al. firstname.lastname@example.com
|Heart of America Trikers Meeting: Kansas City, Missouri Chapter,Meets the second, Sunday of the month, At 230 pm, At Perkins on Boldger Rd. for more info contact David Rapson email@example.com
| Michigan State Meeting: On Saturday April 9th, at the same place as last year. Great Lakes Family Restaurant 963 Grand Ave, Fowlerville Mi. By that time we will have decided where to hold the Trike-In. Judy Bowker 248-889-2278
|SO NV ROADRUNNERS Meeting: 1 ST Tuesday of Each Month, 6 PM Dinner and 7 PM Meeting, MAESTROS PIZZA 3230 E FLAMINGO Las Vegas NV 89120 Call Bonnie Morris @ 702-265-4768 or firstname.lastname@example.com for more info.
|Pahrump Trikers: Meetings
1st Thursday of the month. Call Debbie.Director for location.702-286-6662
|New Hampshire
|New Mexico
|Albuquerque Chapter Meetings: 3rd Sunday of month. Please check our Facebook page at: https://www.facebook.com/groups/btw.albuquerque/ for time and location information. Contact Don 'Geek' Shirah @ 505.239.1536 or email@example.com for more info.Shirah @ 505.239.1536 or firstname.lastname@example.com for more info.
|New York
|Ohio State Meeting:
The First State Meeting of the Riding Season Will be Sunday March 19 2017 at Rooster Rest. 375 S. Hamilton Rd. Whitehall 43213 Eat at 1:00Pm Meet at 2:00p.m for more info contact Marc Tyler firstname.lastname@example.com 614 593 5702?
|Northwest Ohio BTW November Meeting: East Central Ohio Trike Riders the March 2 meeting will be at 5:30pm at Hog Heaven 2730 Cleveland Ave NW Canton,Oh Hope you can make it Be Safe.
The next Cleveland, Ohio BTW meeting will be held at Henry & Michele's, 3308 Kildare Road, Cleveland Heights, OH 44118 (off Cedar, across from Heights High School) on Saturday, September 12, 2015. Food served at 2-3 pm. Meeting starts at 3-4 pm. HWALEXANDER, Asst. Director 216-408-4893 email@example.com
|T-Town Travelers Meetings: Second Sunday each Month, Cafe USA 725 South Mission St Sapulpa, Oklahoma To eat be there by 1:00 pm Meeting starts a 2:00, for more info contact Mark Duensing at email@example.com
|The Willamette Valley Chapter hold meetings on the 1st Saturday of the
month in Jan, March, July, Sept and Nov. Meeting will take place at
Yaquina Bay Restaurant, 325 Airport Rd SE, Albany. 10:00-10:30 AM for
brunch, meeting will start at 11:00 AM. The 1st Saturday of Feb, Apr,
May, Jun, Aug and Dec are social/activities, location tba. Contact:
|BRIDGE CITY TRIKERS Bridge City Trikers 2nd Saturday each Month 10:00 AM Parkrose Elmer's 10001 NE Sandy Blvd Portland, OR 97220 for more info contact David Hancock at firstname.lastname@example.com
|Capital City Trikers meet at 9:30am on the third Saturday of the
month, except for December. There is no meeting in December. Contact
Norm DeRoux at 971-218-5616 for meeting location.
|South Carolina
|South Dakota
|MTWR - Mid TN Wind Riders Meetings: Bi-Monthly meeting, Even months, second Sat. 1 pm. Ponderosa Steakhouse, Hwy 70 Bypass, Dickson, TN.. contact: Mark, 931-721-2260 or firstname.lastname@example.com
|Tennessee Travelin Trikes Meeting: 11/7/15, 1pm at the Egg and I, 1970 Medical Center Parkway #A Murfreesboro, TN 37129, We will be having lunch and have our meeting to elect Officers for the Chapter Everyone welcome. For more info contact Curtis Crawford at 865-258-8173 or email at firstname.lastname@example.com
|DFW Chapter Meeting: on the second of each month at the American Legion Hall on Manhattan St in Ft. Worth TX, and would like to extend an invitation to all trike and bike enthusiasts to stop by and say "HI"
|Coastal Cruisers Chapter Meeting Dates: Every Thursday @ 6PM
Contact Name & Email firstname.lastname@example.com Phone Number 360-923-0133
Location Name Homestead Restaurant 7837 South Tacoma Way,Tacoma, WA
Additional Notes: Enjoy dinner, conversation and ride updates
We are a very friendly group. Come and join us
| "North Sound Threedom Riders" Our next "meeting//social" is Saturday Sept. 9th, @ 9:00am in the Earth year 2017. We are to meet [This Month] at the "Corner Bar & Grill" - Located at 7601 State Route 20, Anacortes Wa. 98221 Phone# (360) 293-8411 "Here is a link to their Facebook Page" https://www.facebook.com/Corner-Bar-Grill-313504678760008/ We begin with Breakfast at 9:00am with the meeting following at 10:00am. Bring your friend's, family, and all interested in food, camaraderie, and trikes, or bikes if that's what your into. All are welcome! Bring one bring all. For more info contact Russ Lamb 360-678-1551 email@example.com
Eastern Washington BTW Saturday, Sept 24th 2016, 12 noon, Sandy's Drive In, 1045 US-395, Kettle Falls, WA 99141 Ride following the meeting! For more information, call: 509-675-6981
SAGEBRUSH TRIKERS - The 2nd Wed of the month, Dinner at 5:00pm and meeting at 6:00pm
The Creek 108 S Iler St Moxee, WA 98936 Contact Gloria French firstname.lastname@example.com
|The New Wisconsin West Central chapter of BTW Meeting: Any questions or comments please feel free to contact me. Ride on... feel the threedom! Jimmy Intrim Wisconsin State director Norwalk, Wisconsin. Home: 608 823 7863 Cell: 989 254 2636 E-mail: email@example.com
|United Kingdom


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Plantable Memorial Favors
While time is the only true healer of grief, planting wildflowers in memory of a loved one after a memorial service can offer some comfort and can even help those grieving heal. With unique and eco-friendly plantable memorial favors like the Wildflower Seed Packets and the Forever in Our Hearts Memorial Favors, those grieving will be able to grow a beautiful garden of wildflowers in honor of the person who has passed. Learn more about seed paper and how plantable paper works.
Forever In Our Hearts Memorial FavorsA plantable seed paper heart in a glassine envelope with a note that includes planting instructions
Wildflower Seed Packet Memorial FavorsWildflower seeds to plant in memory
Forget-me-not Seed Packet Memorial FavorsForget-me-not seeds to plant in memory


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Question: Generate a table analogous to Table 15 2 for power equal
Generate a table analogous to Table 15.2 for power equal to 0.60, with a = .05, two-tailed.
View Solution:
View Solution:
Answer to relevant QuestionsWhat is your subjective probability that the New York Yankees will win next year's World Series? What does that have to do with power? Diagram the situation described in Exercise 15.3 along the lines of Figure 15.2. Use protected t tests for the data in Exercise 16.7 to clarify the meaning of the significant F. In Exercise 16.7 Use the Bonferroni test for the data in Exercise 16.7 to compare the WL group with each of the other three groups. What would you conclude? How does this compare to the answer for Exercise 16.10? In Exercise 16.7 Use MYSTAT or LazStats to reproduce the analysis in Exercise 16.23. The data follow.
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Some actors were born to play a role. With stunning performances, these stars captivate us, move us, and leave us with an enormous impression, even after the end of a film.These photos were taken for Empire Magazine's 20th birthday issue. They gathered some of Hollywood's biggest movie stars and photographed them in a role that brought out the very best in them. Here are some of my favorite shots.
Movie Stars Revisit Their Famous Role
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Cress arugula peanut tigernut wattle seed kombu parsnip. Lotus root mung bean arugula tigernut horseradish endive yarrow gourd. Radicchio cress avocado garlic quandong collard greens.
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The journalists asked Suren Karayan whether there is news about involving the foreign investors into the Armenian market, what sectors and which countries are the investors from. The minister said that the investment programs were submitted but he was reluctant to specify the organizations, "There are numerous offers in the framework of our last visit to France. 2-3 companies have already expressed interest and soon they will visit Armenia to make investments. It is mainly related to the sector of pharmaceutical and food production."
To the question of Aravot.am whether the foreign investors are not concerned about Armenia's closed borders, the blockade and the war, Karayan replied, "On the contrary, Armenia is attractive to foreign investors by the fact that not the borders are closed but Armenia is the platform with which the foreign investors have the chance to have an access to bigger markets, it is the market of the Eurasian Economic Union, whose member is Armenia, it is the privileged mode which we benefit, we benefit from the European Union, it is the GSP+ liberalized regime." To our question of whether these investors are aware of the unreliability of the Upper Lars road, the minister replied, "Yes, all of them are aware of."


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Picture: Michelle Branch Global Green USA's 5th Pre-Oscar Party held at Avalon Hollywood Hollywood, California - 20.02.08 Photo Credit: Adriana M. Barraza / WENN
Michelle Branch had such a difficult time giving birth to her daughter OWEN ISABELLE, she promised a pain-relieving anaesthesiologist she'd name her child after her.
On 3 August (05), the EVERYWHERE singer welcomed her and husband TEDDY LANDAU's first child into the world, but not before enduring 19 hours of labour and an emergency Caesarian section because her infant daughter's heart rate was slowing down.
Branch says, "Once the anaesthesiologist came in, I was like a different person. I said, 'I'm going to name the baby after you.'
"To have her come into the world and already have something scare you, I was just so relieved that she was okay."
After the birth, Branch reneged on her promise to the anaesthesiologist, opting for a more "tomboyish" name for her offspring.
Rob Schneider's new low-brow body-swap romp "The Hot Chick" is such an insipidly sexist so-called...


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I couldn't believe my eyes when Seth returned to the bedroom. Following behind him was none other than Dylan, the sexy daddy who I had met at the bar a few weeks ago. He looked very pleased to see me in this predicament, spread eagled and gagged on Seth's bed with my ultra-sensitive cock being mercilessly tortured by the milker. Dylan smiled "I was hoping I would get to see you again, boy." Seth looked between the two of us. "You two know each other?" "Oh, yes." Dylan answered. "We've... met before..." He crossed to the bed and rested his hand on my cum-strewn belly.
I had a hard time processing the rest of the conversation between Seth and Dylan since my freshly cummed cock was being mercilessly milked by the evil machine. I strained to get my dick close to Dylan as he was sitting on the bed so he would take the milker off of me. He took notice of me in my sorry predicament. "Does slave want me to take off the milker?" I whimpered and nodded my head desperately. I noticed that Dylan did not seem to have shaved much since our last encounter, his face was showing signs of a thick beard and dark, curly chest hair was peaking from his shirt. "I think I will leave it on for now, boy." Dylan stood as he was speaking. "I feel... overdressed for the occasion." And with that, he left the room in the direction of Seth's master bath.
Seth, naked and still hard, came and sat next to me on the bed. "See, boy. We are far from finished tonight." He took off the milker and took out my gag. "Thank you, sir!!" I cried out. Seth grabbed my chin and made me look directly into his eyes. "You're welcome boy. I'm going to give your slave cock a little break while Master Dylan gets ready... I don't want you to pass out... yet." Seth took me out of the restraints and shifted us so that I was leaning against his chest and we were both resting on his headboard. He circled his strong arms around my chest and played with my sensitive cock, causing me to shiver.
Dylan walked back into the room wearing nothing but two studded leather armbands and a black leather cockring wrapped around his large, stiff cock. He was as muscular and sexy as I remembered with dark fur covering his chest, trailing down to his bush and spreading over his beefy legs. I could feel Seth's cock stir at the small of my back as his grip around me tightened. Dylan got on the bed and straddled my legs, his hot cock resting against mine. He leaned up against me, holding himself up against the headboard behind me and Seth. On my back I could feel Seth's muscular and sweaty chest pressing into me, and my chest was brushing against Dylan's hairy chest. My cock was rock hard and dripping again.
As I was straining in Seth's strong grip, Dylan got closer to me, his mouth right by my ear, tickling me with his beard. "Master Seth tells me you left him with... unfinished business the last time you served him." How many people had Seth told about me passing out? "Do you know why he called me over today?" Dylan continued to growl in my ear. "No." I said, my voice weak. Dylan suddenly shifted, drew back his arm and swatted my throbbing cock, causing me to wince. "No, WHAT- boy?" He asked sternly. "No, master!" I corrected myself as he shifted back into position. The hot, hairy hunk on top of me chuckled as he leaned into me and pressed his lips against mine. His tongue took over my mouth as I began to squirm in Seth's strong arms, shivers running down my whole body. Dylan broke the kiss and looked into my eyes. "I'm here to punish you, boy." I whimpered, causing both of my masters to laugh to themselves. Dylan lowered one arm from the headboard and set it in my lap, circling my cock with his fist. He began to stroke, slowly, making my head spin. "Do you like to cum, slave?" He asked. I was to weak to speak, so I nodded my head. "Good..."
Dylan got off the bed and went toward the dresser as Seth got me in a headlock with one arm and pinning my arms against his body with the other, still pressed hard against his chest, he was humming to himself, content. Dylan came back with two dice in his hand. "We are going to play a game, boy." Dylan explained. "I will roll these two die and the number that comes up is how many times Seth and I will make you cum before you are done." Oh, god... my heart started to beat heavy in my chest... I didn't think I would be able to be milked as many as twelve times. If you've never been milked like that before, believe me it's no treat! Your cock is so sensitive it is painful when someone keeps stroking. "Please, sirs, please..." Dylan smacked me across the cheek. "Quiet boy." He said. Behind me, Seth whispered in my ear. "Every time that you talk during your punishment we will start from the beginning again boy..." I started to wriggle in Seth's monster grip as Dylan rolled the die. They landed on the bed and I looked at them, wearily... "Seven."
My body stiffened as Dylan crawled toward me on the bed. "Lube's on the nightstand." I heard Seth say. Dylan poured a healthy amount of it on my dick and wrapped his hand around it. He started to pump up and down as my body started to shiver. "Slave's cock is still sensitive from the treatment I gave it earlier." Seth said behind me. "Good," was Dylan's only response. Dylan changed his tactic and would now run his palm over the head of my dick every time he reached the top. I had to choke back a scream, not wanting to have them start over again milking my cock. My penis was so sensitive it felt like it was about to burst. I did all I could from screaming, I writhed in Seth's grip pressing myself deeper into his hot body. Taking his free hand, Dylan started to finger my ass. My body started to spasm as a hot rope of cum came shooting out of my dick. I couldn't hold it in any longer and I screamed out loud. "That's it boy," Seth grunted from behind me. "Shoot your load."
As I came down from my high, Dylan kept rubbing my aching cock sending shockwaves through my body. I was groaning and moaning, trying to keep myself from howling and begging them to stop. Dylan lowered his head and circled my cock with his mouth, he sucked me like a straw sending my body into overdrive. I couldn't keep it in me anymore, I let out an ear piercing shriek. Just as suddenly as I had started, Seth clamped one of his hands over my mouth. "Remember boy," he said. "Make a sound and we start all over." Dylan continued to suck me, swirling his tongue around my dick until I finally delivered another painful load down his throat. I screamed again, crying out in agony for the torture my cock was being subjected to. "I think we are going to have to do something about this screaming." Seth said. "Hang on to him." He tossed me to Dylan, like I was a piece of meat and got up and left the room.
Dylan lunged on top of me and pinned me to the bed under his hulking body. He grabbed both my wrists and stretched my arms out above my head as he attacked my face with his mouth. He spoke in mixed up, lust-filled sentences as he kissed my mouth, face and neck scraping and biting with his teeth. "Such a good boy... hot scene... love making you cum... make you my slave..." I was moaning as he raped my face and dominated me with his body. I could feel his gut contract and his chest heave as he let loose a guttural moan and cum came shooting up between our chests. "God, fuuuuck!" Right on cue, Seth entered the room with what appeared to be a leather hood and a chair.
"Sorry, I missed all the fun." Seth said as he set the chair down at the foot of the bed. Dylan rolled off of me, his cum sticking between us. He lay on his back, trying to catch his breath. Seth came over and roughly grabbed me by the arm, dragging me across the room to the chair as if I were merely a sex toy. I now saw the chair had straps on all parts of it and was clearly meant to keep a cum slave like me contained. I was weary as we approached. Dylan had followed us and took my other arm as my sex masters tied me securely to the chair. My arms were strapped to the arms of the chair, my feet to its legs and my chest was securely attached to the back of the chair. I could only move my head. As Seth started to play with my cock, Dylan came up from behind and placed the hood over my head and secured the attached gag. "There," he said. "Now you can't even try to beg for forgiveness, slave." Boy was I in trouble...
As Seth worked over my cock, Dylan crossed to the front of the chair and went to town on my nipples. For those of you who don't know, my tits are hardwired to my cock. Just a few strokes of my chest and my dick is standing at attention. The double onslaught was too much for me to bare. I struggled with all my might against the bonds of the chair, screaming bloody murder into my gag. The fact that I couldn't see what my tormentors were doing to me sent me to another level. My cock was deceiving me, hard as rock almost begging for more, whereas the rest of my body was howling for it to stop. I was in such agony and couldn't imagine how it could be any worse... I soon found out.
After a few minutes (or was it hours? days?) of this torment, I felt the devilish tube of the milking machine being reattached to my cock. I shook the chair so hard with my body- anything I could do to keep that infernal machine from torturing my already defeated cock. Seth and Dylan only laughed at my struggle and continued to work me over. The milking machine was switched on and started to pump my screaming cock as Seth and Dylan touched, pinched, smacked and sucked various parts of my body. I was on heightened alert, not being able to see what was being done to me.
Just as Dylan was chewing on my left nipple like a crazed dog and Seth treating my balls as a punching bag, I felt that feeling deep in my gut. The feeling I was so regretting. I knew that with all the treatment my cock was already getting and how sensitive it was after having cum three times already in the past half hour, I knew this one was going to beat me up. And the fact that the torment wasn't going to stop afterwards had my heart beating like there was no tomorrow. As the sensation creeped its way from my crotch it built and built and built in intensity until it felt like a racing locomotive was readying itself to blast from my cock. When I did cum, my body writhed in utter agony as if I was having a full blown seizure. I involuntarily bucked, screamed and squealed as the relentless milker took me for all I was worth- and more. I had overbalanced on the chair as I had cum and the only thing that kept me from tipping backwards was Seth's grip on my balls. Having my whole body weight bounce on the flesh of my scrotum was too much to handle, combined with the agony of another forced cum, I began to sob hysterically into my hood. As I felt the tears and saliva fill my hood and smear across my face, I could only think of the four more times I was going to have to cum. I felt completely and utterly hopeless...
As my head was lost in a fog of hopelessness and agony, cock being rubbed raw, everything suddenly stopped. The hands and mouths left my body and the milker was taken off my slobbering meat. I was so spent and overdriven that I continued to sob in hysteria. I could only lightly make out what Seth and Dylan were saint to each other.
"Poor bitch... seems to have learned...?" "Still... cum four more times...." "Afraid... pass out again."
As I was drifting in and out of consciousness, I felt my restraints being released and my hood was taken off. I felt (and half saw) Dylan take me up in his arms, cradling me almost like a baby. "You did good, boy." He whispered into my ear. "Real good. Your punishment is over." I was so relieved started to cry again. I buried my face into Dylan's shoulder, taking in the smell of his manly musk and sweat as he carried me to the bed.
Spent, Seth turned out the lights and we all curled up in his California King, Seth on one side of me and Dylan on the other. The whole night I was facing Dylan, face planted in his hairy chest and his arm wrapped around my body.


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I got a call from a western state about a job interview. One of the things that always goes through my mind when I consider a move is "do I really want to live there?" This is a great city, just the kind of place I would fit in. I started thinking about my garden then, maybe because the first flowers are beginning to bloom now. Could I have a garden like this one? It is the west, and water is a problem. Later, I read an article on Glen Canyon in Backpacker Magazine and soon I was starting to wonder if the Smart Growth or Sustainable Development movements have failed to look at a much bigger issue than sprawl. Should we even be in some places to begin with?
Denver, Phoenix, Los Angeles, Las Vegas and many of the other large, rapidly growing cities of the west do not have the water to meet their needs, and in the prosecc of taking what they can find, are destroying whole ecosystems. Glen Canyon is but one example of this. You could easily add Hetch Hetchy, the Salton Sea, the Gulf of California, the Snake River, and countless others to the list. Promote Smart Growth as much as you like. You could have cities ten times as dense as now, but you still need the water to sustain human life, along with industry and agriculture (and to wash the mud off our SUV's after a weekend of tearing up the backcountry).
The western drought is, I think, going to bring this issue to the forefront. We have had four years of low rain, and some scientists think we are cycling into an extended drought such as the one thought to have led to the collapse of the Anasazi civilization. Will this lead to a disaster for out desert cities? Are we failing to plan, when we allow them to grow beyond the means of the land to sustain them? Or are we going to further compound the problem, causing new environmental catastrophe by diverting water from the north and east over the Continental Divide? Is no growth the smartest growth for these cities?


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My school... Probably too much strictness ( we weren't allowed to wear our hair down for goodness' sake!) and the way some students acted like prima donnas yet sat like truck drivers :(
Most Helpful Guy
Nothing really. My college doesn't have anything that bad about it. Thankfully.11|00|0
Most Helpful Girl
Mine is generally known for our agriculture stuff. There's a lot of farmers in my town.11|00|0


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Se7ern Soul Nite
Se7ern Soul Nite on
Event Information
- ..Ok.. so it ain't Saturday.. but thats never been a problem... The Anstice.. Friday 26th July.. 7.30pm until late.. Joc's that nite... Adie,, Squeak,, Crossy,, Moxey,, Don,, ..Guests that nite are..Jelly Bean & Martin Preston.. from the Stables Soul Club, Cannock... playing across the board Soulful music.. great floor.. great venue.. great balcony.. great crowd... always a queue.. even with tickets..!!!!! ... don't lose out on yours.. 07796 957 993 for information.. facebook.. Soul Source.. usual outlets... COME ON !!!!!!!!!
- Tickets now on sale and limited numbers... call or text.. 07796 957 993...
Anstice Square, Madeley, TF7 5BD Telford
Venue Details
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Kitley House Hotel
Luxury Country House Hotel & Restaurant, Trout Lake and Extensive Woodland Walks. Access to the sea 400 yards. Kitley House is an oasis of quiet luxury, providing the highest standards in comfort, cuisine and personal service. A sweeping staircase leads up to 19 spacious bedrooms and suites. Each has panoramic views over the estate and is richly appointed with furnishings designed to reflect the traditional elegance of the house while incorporating all modern facilities.
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Like choosing a prom date, choosing a favorite wine necessitates sampling a variety to determine which one will produce the nicest bouquet. Enjoy the fruits of competitive courting with today's Groupon: for $12, you get a wine-tasting package for two at Vaso de Vino Wine Market in Arden (up to a $24 value). The package includes:
- Samples of 10 wines and a cheese plate for two (a $10 value)
- A bottle of one of the tasting wines to take home (up to a $14 value; customers may use the $14 value toward a more expensive bottle)<p>
Vaso de Vino's buyers work hand-in-hand with wine suppliers to stock the gleaming wooden shelves with top-shelf sippables from more than 1,000 labels. The tasting brings two guests together to discover the complex flavor profiles of a selection of cheese and up to 10 wines, boosting abilities to pair menu items and find new companions for a listless Bacchus. Patrons then choose their favorite bottle from among a swirling kaleidoscope of vinos, including merlot, cabernet, and chardonnay that sparkles playfully across palates, cloaking tongues in a refined coolness without the risks of melting down a king's ice sculpture.


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Quote Of The Day has a different level of form to these rivals having easily won a maiden at Navan as a juvenile and competed at Listed level subsequently. However, there has to be a reason for his drop into claiming company and he hasn't been seen since finishing last of five at the Curragh in May. Strait Of Zanzibar is another with strong form in his first season but he's been very disappointing this campaign. SPIRITUALITY has been running well at Dundalk and his overall form is progressive. He'll need to find a bit more on official ratings but comes up against rivals with question marks and is handed the vote. Lord Jim won a handicap at Bellewstown on heavy ground in July but has run well in similar conditions to those he will find here and looks a threat along with Dream Scape, the only C&D winner in the line-up, and the lightly-raced Empresario, who has more scope than most.
Empresario (IRE) 9-4fav (9-5) Tracked leaders in 5th, 4th and effort early straight, no impression from 1 1/2f out, one pace, 5th of 9, 7l behind Crystal Kangaroo (9-5) at Killarney 1m mdn stks in Sep.
Strait Of Zanzibar (USA) 14-1 (9-7) Led, joined halfway, led and strongly pressed 2f out, headed 1 1/2f out, no extra, 4th of 14, 3 1/2l behind Russian Soul (9-3) at Dundalk 1m hcp pol in Sep.
Quote Of The Day (IRE) 16-1 (9-3) Led, strongly pressed and joined over 1f out, headed under pressure final furlong and no extra, last of 5, 7l behind Takar (9-3) at Curragh 7f 3yo lst stk (1) sft in May.
Spirituality (IRE) 7-2 (9-5) Chased leaders, 5th halfway, headway into 2nd 2f out, soon led, ridden and headed 1f out, no extra and kept on same pace, 2nd of 14, 2 1/4l behind Rigoletta (9-0) at Dundalk 1m mdn stks pol in Sep.
Lord Jim (IRE) 9-2 (9-9) Chased leader early, soon 3rd, ridden into 2nd 2f out, no extra in 3rd over 1f out, kept on one pace, 3rd of 7, 10l behind Rominintheglomin (9-9) at Listowel 7f 3yo hcp hvy in Sep.
Gumption (IRE) 13-2 (9-1) Settled 2nd, ridden and weakened approaching straight, 7th of 9, 22l behind Shifting (9-4) at Listowel 1m 1f hcp 50-80 hvy in Sep.
Celticnama (IRE) 50-1 (9-2) Towards rear, some late headway in 11th 1f out, kept on one pace, 9th of 18, 5l behind Love Is The Key (9-0) at Fairyhouse 6f mdn stks hvy in Sep.
Dream Scape 9-1 (9-8) Soon mid-division, headway 2f out, soon no impression under pressure, eased when beaten inside final furlong, 8th of 10, 14l behind Maude Adams (8-13) at Roscommon 1m 2f fll hcp in Sep.
Coco Bella (IRE) 10-1 (9-0) Towards rear early, mid-division in 8th halfway, ridden and no impression 2f out, 9th of 12, 13l behind Precious Stone (9-0) at Dundalk 1m mdn fll stks pol in Sep.
Gun Shoot (IRE) 8-1 (9-0) Chased leaders, ridden in 3rd 2f out, soon no impression, 7th of 16, 10l behind Fastidious (9-5) at Gowran Park 7f 3yo & 4yo mdn gd in Sep.
Sailrfly (IRE) 10-1 (9-7) Led, raced wide back straight, headed and weakened quickly under 3f out, 6th of 8, 45l behind Daigreen (9-5) at Ballinrobe 1m 1f 3yo hcp 47-65 hvy in Aug.