text:
As a
resident expert of NYC NYC blogger, I receive a lot of questions on the site from tourists either planning their trip to the city, or locals looking to make the most out of their weekend. I spend a fair amount of time answering these inquiries via email or social media sites, and thought, "if one person has a pondering, chances are someone else probably has the same question, so why not share via a Q&A on the site?!"
Here's the first installment! I hope you enjoy, and if you have a question feel free to send me a Tweet, comment below, or post the question to UYC's Facebook wall.
Q: Hi Jess. Any suggestions on best rooftop bars/locations for photo opportunities of the Manhattan skyline that the average person has access?
A: Hi! So for the best Manhattan skyline I would point you in the direction of the outer boroughs so that you can capture the most of Manhattan! In Queens you can check out the Penthouse 808 at the Ravel Hotel (pictured above), in Brooklyn the Ides at the Wythe Hotel. However, a few of my favorite rooftops in Manhattan (that still offer amazing views, obviously!) are The Rooftop at The Standard High Line, 230 Fifth, the Empire Hotel, and one we forget about all too often, the rooftop at the Metropolitan Museum of Art, which offers incredible views AND art! Enjoy!:-)
Q: Best frozen yogurt spot in the city?
A: I'll refrain from letting myself answer "Pinkberry!" (although I do have a soft spot for them!), and point you in the direction of Culture in Brooklyn. The yogurt is fresh and the toppings creative: strawberry-basalmic strike your fancy?
Q: Hi Jess, I am looking for the best travel guide to NYC. I want a book that will show me places and spots known by real new yorkers not like those touristic guides found everywhere; the mythical places, the famous places… What would you advise me to get? Thank you so much.
A: Hi there! I would recommend that you pick up a copy of what us locals refer to as our "NYC bible"…Time Out New York magazine. They list all the most current exhibitions, restaurants, and stores that are worth checking out, and also do longer features such as neighborhood profiles in the outer boroughs, with all kinds of ideas of places to check out that are "under the radar", so to speak.
Another great (physical) book you should check out is "Off the Beaten (Subway) Track: New York City's Best Unusual Attractions", which will guide you to some quirky spots and gives excellent directions on how to get there!:-)


text:
I'm always asking my daughter about her homework: does she have a test coming up? What is she studying right now? Usually, I recognize what she's working on, remember learning it myself, help if I'm needed.
But I was quiet a few weeks ago when she told me she was working on a report about some figure from the Islamic Empire for global history. I had never heard the name — or at least didn't remember it. So I was glad when she didn't ask me any questions about him. I just raised a knowing eyebrow and tried to look wise.
It's not the first time I've been baffled by my kid's homework. I fell behind in math somewhere around order of operations. And I'm glad no one's asking me for any Old English translations. How about you?
For this week's True Mom Confessions we want to know the first of your kids' homework assignments that stumped you — and made you feel a little stupid.

subset: commoncrawl


text:
Posted by Mike (WA) on January 13, 2013 at 00:31:25 from (18.104.22.168):
In Reply to: OT: Time to tell Ma Bell goodby? posted by Slowpoke on January 12, 2013 at 20:35:00:
The younger generation figured that out years ago. My kids range in age from 30 to 36, and only one has a landline in his home. Daughter has never had one. Husband and wife each have a phone with a different number.
Does bring up a question- hen their kids get old enough to use the phone, do they get each kid a cell, too?
Optional Link URL:
Link Title:
Optional Image URL:
Optional Video Title:
Optional Video Embed:
Advanced Posting Options
TRADEMARK DISCLAIMER: Tradenames and Trademarks referred to within Yesterday's Tractor Co. products and within the Yesterday's Tractor Co. websites are the property of their respective trademark holders. None of these trademark holders are affiliated with Yesterday's Tractor Co., our products, or our website nor are we sponsored by them. John Deere and its logos are the registered trademarks of the John Deere Corporation. Agco, Agco Allis, White, Massey Ferguson and their logos are the registered trademarks of AGCO Corporation. Case, Case-IH, Farmall, International Harvester, New Holland and their logos are registered trademarks of CNH Global N.V.


text:
Rose Magazine Holder by Home Republic From FabFurnish Rs.782
Rs 782 (was Rs 1699)
You Save Rs 917
Posted 3 years ago
FabFurnish.com, a major online shopping portal is now running an offer where you can get Rose Magazine Holder by Home Republic just at Rs.782.
This items is already at its discounted price. No coupon code is required.
NOTE: Shipping Charges : None
Offer Details:
- Store Name: FabFurnish.com
- Your Savings: Flat 54% off
- Shipping Charges: FREE above Rs.599
- Offer Expires: Limited period only
- Major Brands: Rose
Product description:
Material: Synthetic Leather
Color: Multicolor
Magazine Holder Height: 13.7 inches (34 cm), Length: 15 inches (38 cm), Width: 7.5 inches (19 cm)


text:
A total lunar eclipse will likely draw a lot of people outdoors next week.
The eclipse will take place Apr. 14.
UH astronomers say it will start 6:53 p.m. but you won't be able to see it until 7:58 p.m.
They say the best time to view the eclipse will be between 9:06 – 10:24 p.m.
Astronomers say that's when the moon will be very dark and possibly turn an eerie shade of red.
UH Institute for Astronomy is holding two viewing parties for the lunar eclipse from 7 to 11:30 p.m. one at Kapiolani Park in Waikiki, the other next to the Kahuku Public Library.
The Kapiolani Park event will happen on Soccer Field #5, which is located on Paki Avenue near the corner of Monsarrat Avenue. There is free parking both on the streets and in lots accessible from Monsarrat Avenue.
There will be another total lunar eclipse visible in Hawaii on the night of October 7-8. For more information, click here.


text:
Magnificent Magic Issue 1
Paperback, 69 Pages
Price: $20.27
Prints in 3-5 business days
Welcome to Magnificent Magic, the magazine supplement that brings the adventure of The Grand Realm to you hands. If your a lover of Dungeons and Dragons, Pathfinder, or any other system this magazine is for you. Inside you will find all you need to add to you favorite campaign, or game. Come take a look and share in the knowledge within! Magnificent Magic is waiting for you!
Ratings & ReviewsLog in to review this item
There are no reviews for the current version of this product
There are no reviews for previous versions of this product
Product Details
- Copyright
- R.R.Ryder Guild Runners Publishing (Standard Copyright License)
- Edition
- First Edition
- Publisher
- Guild Runners Publishing
- Published
- May 7, 2013
- Language
- English
- Pages
- 69
- Binding
- Perfect-bound Paperback
- Interior Ink
- Full color
- Weight
- 0.74 lbs.
- Dimensions (inches)
- 8.5 wide x 11 tall
Your notification has been sent
Lulu Staff has been notified of a possible violation of the terms of our Membership Agreement. Our agents will determine if the content reported is inappropriate or not based on the guidelines provided and will then take action where needed.
Thank you for notifying us. We will email you with the results and/or actions taken as a result of the investigation if you chose to receive confirmation.
We were unable to complete your request.
We were unable to complete your request.
- Guild ,
- Runners ,
- Publishing ,
- Games ,
- Grand Realm ,
- R.R.Ryder ,
- Dungeons and Dragons ,
- Pathfinder ,
- Magazines
Listed In
Age Verification
The page you are attempting to access contains content that is not intended for underage readers.
Please verify your birth date to continue.


text:
Taal Volcano: Travel Guide, How to Get There, Where to Stay, Activities & MoreCategories Luzon, Travel Guide
One need not be an experienced mountaineer to trek Taal Volcano, mainly for three reasons: the trail is so easy; the volcano is quite small; and lastly, you can ride a horse from ground zero to the top.
Famous for being the smallest active volcano in the world, Taal Volcano is actually a volcano within a lake (which used to be an old crater) within an island of Luzon, Philippines. Bounded by the provinces of Cavite and Batangas, it is just around 60 kilometers south-southeast of Metropolitan Manila.
Volcanologists described it as a small volcanic island, called as Volcano Island, located within a 20 x 30 kilometer lake-filled complex caldera called Taal Lake (Lake Bonbon), which was tagged as one of the great volcano-tectonic depressions of the world. Due to its proximity to highly populated areas, Taal is one of 16 "Decade Volcanoes" that have been identified by the volcanology community as presenting large potential hazards to population centers.
But despite the dangers it possess, Taal Volcano has its unique charm. A trek to its old crater is an easy adventure worth experiencing.
How to Get to Taal Volcano
To get to Taal Volcano, one needs to hire a banca to cross the Taal Lake from Talisay, Batangas. To go to Talisay, hire a tricycle or a jeepney from Tagaytay City, passing through a narrow zigzag road down to this town. There are regular jeepneys running all day from Tagaytay to Talisay and back (40min). Another option would be to go to Tanauan, Batangas, where you can catch a jeepney at the public market for the thirty-minute bumpy trip to Talisay (~P20.00/~$0.5). But public transport is sometimes difficult especially the return trip, so it is advisable to bring your own car or hire one for a roundtrip.
Most tourists prefer the Tagaytay route which is an hour and 15 minute drive from Manila (2 to 3 if traffic). You can go there via the South Luzon Expressway (SLEX) or via Coastal Road /Aguinaldo Highway. Via SLEX, take the Carmona Exit and drive down to Governor's Drive and Silang up to the entrance of Tagaytay City. You can also take Sta. Rosa exit going to Tagaytay City. Via Coastal Road, drive south to Aguinaldo Highway passing through Bacoor, Imus, Dasmarinas and Silang Cavite.
For commuters, via Tagaytay catch a bus from Buendia/Pasay to Nasugbu or Balayan, these pass through Tagaytay City. Via Tanauan, take a bus from Pasay marked for Lemery, then get off in Tanauan, Batangas.
Where to Stay near Taal Volcano
There is no hotel in Taal Volcano, so if you are planning to spend the night there, you can scout for resosts in Talisay or hotels in Tagaytay.
In Talisay, San Roque Beach Resort has airconditioned rooms for around P1500 (~$38) with breakfast, they also have cottages for as low as P800.00 (~$20).
In Tagaytay, there are numerous hotels to choose from. Some popular hotels here are Days Hotel, Sonya's Garden, Taal Vista Hotel, Discovery Suites, Royal Taal Inn, Tagaytay Country Hotel and Dacha Hotel Villas. For budget travellers, highly recommended is the ViewPoint Inn located in Tagaytay-Batangas Highway, Neogan, Tagaytay City. They have non-aiconditioned rooms for as low as P800 (~$20) for 12 hours stay and P1200 (~$30) for an overnight stay. Air-conditioned rooms are at P1800 (~$45) for overnight stay. They offer free breakfast for all overnight stay, or 10% off on your room rate if you opt not to avail of the meal.
What to Do in Taal Volcano and Nearby
Here is the list of the activities in Taal and surrounding areas.
- Banca ride to Taal for as low as P1,500 (~$38.00) for a boat that fits up to 6 people (expect rough waters/waves so be ready to get wet)
- Swim in Taal Lake
- Ride a horse to the Taal crater (and back) for P500.00 (~$13)
- Trek to Taal crater
- Tour Tagaytay Picnic Grove, People's Park in the Sky, Caleruega Church
- Dine in any restaurants in Tagaytay that offers unobstructed view of Taal


text:
My toms are gradually going red (or orange, as the new trialed variety are), but I have had a few split. I'll take on board the comments about over watering, makes sense. I am grateful to have any tomatoes. This year has been mad, my favourite crunchy mini cucumber (Picolino) is behaving very strangely; when it starts to form a fruit it grows into the shape of a tiny butternut squash and as it matures it fills out to become a perfect 3-4" cue. Crisp and lovely as ever. They didn't do that last year or before, maybe this crazy weather keeps putting the brakes on the growth? It looks like a half inflated long balloon!
This crazy weather has made everything peak at different times! The 5yr old clump of Astrantia (hadspen blood) was my best show a while ago as it flowered at the same time as an enormous yellow Kerria - this is it's second show this year. Now at this moment the best plant is the Hydranga - a bit upset as it was sold to me as a blue flowered variety and has turned out to be a sickly salmon pink! Still, yesterday and last night torrential rain has turned it a beautiful rose pink so it is forgiven. Anyone know when I should prune this Kerria? I was going to do it after it flowered but now it has flowered again!
Hi Daisy Cottage - after having tried all sorts for my front garden on a corner I chose Laurel. Too impatient for bare root so bought pot grown from a reputable local nursery. Had a few problems with an ant nest but now that is sorted it has come on beautifully. Grown about a foot in this wet summer and is easy to maintain. I will keep it at about 4-5 feet and it is like 'deadheading' to prune - just take out wayward stems. Beautiful green colour, nice shaped leaves and very shiny (look like they have been varnished!). I love it.
Hi Alina W, thanks for the advice, I'll try to have a gentle poke around and keep an eye on it. Maybe it is just natural leaf fall, I'm just paranoid, the only other thing that has grown out there is pyracanthea, nice but vicious.
I planted a new Laurel (english) Headge last autumn. It sailed through the winter & snow. Had a few catterpillars to pick off early spring & then it has taken off! Lots of new shoots & leaves putting on growth outwards & upwards. But everytime I leave the house I find yellow leaves on the ground and 1 or 2 lower leaves have turned yellow on each plant & they just fall off when you touch them. No sign of insect damage, they just look as if something has sucked the life out of them. HELP!! I lurve this hedge, it's so green & shiny it just makes me want to smile whenever I leave or enter the front gate! Only thing untoward is a lot of ants all over the place (tried usual methods) but can't find a nest anywhere. Other thing is a very large tree on street outside and I found small roots from that when I dug out to plant hedge. Anyone have any ideas? Tried to attach photo but it said it was too big!? Don't know how to make it smaller.
Grafted plants are supposed to be the best and in flower when you buy but when I got mine I would have needed a second mortgage to buy what I wanted so went for a small potted 'whip'. I had a new garden at the time so there was nothing in it so all plants purchsed where small. That wisteria took over ten years to produce any flowers at all! Sadly, at that time I didn't have any pruning information so just stopped it looking sad & weeping willow like! Once it started flowering it was lovely but not the blue I expected, more of a lilac color. I have now moved house and didn't have the heart to did it up as it had spent so much time 'settling'. I am now trying again with some bare root plants and so far they are still like dead twigs!
Thanks marshmello! I thought we were supposed to get the best of the weather in the 'soft' South!
I am in N.London/Essex border - it has rained everyday (it feels like years!) for the last few weeks. Rain, hail, dark, overcast & windy. The barometer dropped to the lowest point on the dial the other night & I think I might be suffering from RUST! We have a hosepipe ban at the moment but don't care as I've also filled a plastic dustbin as well as my waterbutt and that is just from a shed roof!
I'm in the same boat, Grai. Last year I left everything too late and this year I think I started too early so I have plants that have been potted on with a view to going outside but we are still getting night frosts and have had 10/11 days of non-stop heavy rain. I thought the needle had fallen off my barometer the other night as it went so low it was off the scale! I'm in North London/Essex and I'm too afraid to put my little darlings outside! I might try a few and see how they get on, I have sown far too many so I can afford to lose a few. Wish me luck!
My garden faces north-east so I only get some sun at an angle for part of the day (lots of building around me!). So far last year my biggest triumph was cherry tomatoes and the really tiny 100's & 1000's both grown in pots. Picked the last of them in October! Plum tomatoes were a failure (2- sad) but I think they need a baking. This year I'm going to try some fruit, rhubarb, strawberries, blackcurrents & redcurrents. I have already planted onion sets and garlic cloves so fingers crossed.


text:
Montana weightlifting club helping crossfit athletes on eve of Showdown
Crossfit has become America's favorite fitness program, gaining new athletes and followers daily. But with this new fitness craze, injuries have become prevalent, with new lifters attempting big olympic lifts without learning the proper techniques "The thing is with crossfit, it's generally using a lighter weight, doing a lot of reps," said former U.S. Olympic weightlifter Mike Karchut. "And the focus on olympic lifting is to, of course, lift your maximum for a single attempt and in order to do that your technique has to be perfected." Bridger Crossfit West will host the 5th annual Bridger Crossfit Showdown on Saturday and West's athletes got a treat Friday, working in conjunction with the Team Montana Weight Lifting Club. "It's a really big crossover," said Kathleen Winters, the head of the Team Montana Weightlifting Club. "You see the biggest names in crossfit, they're doing mostly olympic weightlifting and a lot of strength stuff, more squatting, olympic lifting, power lifting. So it's a really valuable thing to have the weight lifting club here." Crossfit workouts typically consist of exercises using moderate weight for a lot of reps, done in a certain amount of time. That will be done tomorrow, with 5 crossfits workouts in the day. Tomorrows showdown however, will also contain one max lift exercise, making form even more crucial "There is going to be a max effort lift tomorrow in the showdown," Winters said. "So we thought we'd give them a little extra help for today." "The idea of just snatching the way most crossfitters do it, they tell them generally just pull it as high as you can and get under it," Karchut said. "Which is not the way you're gonna lift a heavy weight. So what we're focusing here on with these crossfitters is to get them to improve their technique." With a brutal workout ahead of these competitors tomorrow, these coaches hope these athletes will focus on their technique to avoid injury and have a cleaner, better performance. "Generally you see with a light weight, you show the technique and you see that they're doing very well," Karchut said. "But then, all of a sudden, you start adding heavy weight and the mind takes over and it says, 'forget all that technique and let me just get it up any way I can.' If they would just focus on olympic lifting a little longer to perfect that technique, of course they would do much better than the other ones that don't do that." The Showdown begins tomorrow morning at 9 a.m.


text:
I am not likely to do much blogging on this site. I intend to use it to direct my readers to the blogs I write and/or maintain. You will find the "good stuff" as you click on the links under the header. It is on those blogs that I expect to do the most writing – and you will also discover that some blogs will be more active than others as my passions fluctuate. (Did I mention my A.D.D. tendencies?)
I hope you will enjoy browsing through my "stuff" and find something you like.


text:
How to say Set in Malayalam sɛt
Would you like to know how to translate Set to Malayalam? This page provides all possible translations of the word Set in the Malayalam language.
Discuss this Set Malay translation with the community:
Use the citation below to add this definition to your bibliography:
"Set." Definitions.net. STANDS4 LLC, 2018. Web. 25 Feb. 2018. </translate/Set/ML>.


text:
Read Mugen Garan Manga Online
1) Mumyou Bonnou The commander of the British army, Captain Errol, is captured by his enemy, a Hindu ruler called Bimbisara. But instead of killing Errol, Bimbisara decides to give him lessons on the Kama Sutra, in a very hands-on way. 2) Floral Sea Cavern After falling overboard of a boat during his school trip, Kazamatsuri awakens to find himself imprisoned in a strange place by a man who has never heard sound of a beating human heart. He is told that he is in the netherworld, and that he will never be allowed to leave. 3) Taizan Kouroumu A god finds a boy and takes him to his martial arts temple. The boy is mute, and possesses mysterious power. The boy rescues another boy from prostitution and the relationship begins...for immortality. 4) Super Natural In the Public Moral committee, Tatsumi finds Nijou being raped in the gym storage room. The reason is...because Nijou can tell fortunes in the middle of sex? 5) Love Fortune
|Chapter name
|Date added
|Mugen Garan Chapter 2: Floral Cavern
|Oct 18, 2009
|Mugen Garan Chapter 1.2: Mumyou Bonnou
|May 21, 2009
|Mugen Garan Chapter 1.1: Mumyou Bonnou
|May 21, 2009


text:
Tarot Grand Luxe
The Tarot Grand Luxe is my latest tarot deck project. This special edition is self published and geared principally to collectors. I am assuming that anyone reading this is already...>> Click here for more about Tarot Grand Luxe
Tarot of Dreams
Ciro Marchetti reimagines tarot by presenting vivid dream images that map out a fascinating journey of self-discovery. Tarot of Dreams explores the profound web of visual and emoti...>> Click here for more about Tarot of Dreams
Legacy of the Divine Tarot
Step into a lost world from long ago . . . A world veiled in darkness after a cataclysmic collision that stilled the earth. Millennia have passed and only humankind has survived...>> Click here for more about Legacy of the Divine Tarot
Tarot Royale
The Tarot Royale is an completely reworked version of Ciro Marchetti's original tarot deck, The Gilded Tarot, which has sold well over 500,000 copies and has been translated into t...>> Click here for more about Tarot Royale
The Lilith Bible Tarot
The Lilith Bible Tarot Deck illuminates the polytheistic pagan roots of Judeo-Christian religious scripture and ideas. Through Lilith's eyes we take a fresh look at the Bible....>> Click here for more about The Lilith Bible Tarot
Tarot Decoratif
The Tarot Decoratif is a project that combine features from both the Marseilles and Waite Smith systems. It's self published as a special edition and is aimed primarliy at collecto...>> Click here for more about Tarot Decoratif
The BirdQueen Tarot
This lovingly illustrated Tarot Deck features 78 unique drawings depicting the individual meanings of the Major and Minor Arcana. For the most part, human figures are absent fro...>> Click here for more about The BirdQueen Tarot
Tarot of the Apocalypse
This Polish deck of cards presents a new, original approach to the Tarot, based on an non-orthodox, esoteric interpretation of the main Christian symbols and ideas. It heralds t...>> Click here for more about Tarot of the Apocalypse
Badgers Forest Tarot
This Art Deck is based on traditional tarot decks - with a twist. In this tarot, badgers are swords, foxes are cups, rabbits are wands and crows are pentacles. The major arca...>> Click here for more about Badgers Forest Tarot
The Golden Age of Hollywood Tarot
The Golden Age of Hollywood Tarot Deck is a 78 card deck using standard RWS interpretations. The content is inspired by Hollywood's golden age (1920's to 1960's) an acknowled...>> Click here for more about The Golden Age of Hollywood Tarot
BlueDogRose Tarot
The BlueDogRose Tarot, a 78 card deck is made up of 22 major and 56 minor arcana, each with a different image of domestic animals. Instead of Swords there are Cats, Cups are Bir...>> Click here for more about BlueDogRose Tarot
The Riderless Tarot
The Riderless Tarot is and art card tarot deck featuring horses and other animals. This full sized art deck is based on the original Rider Waite tarot deck, and follows the same m...>> Click here for more about The Riderless Tarot
Tarot de Maria Celia
A Modern Re-Rendering of The Marseilles Tarot - A Classic Tarot Style. The deck's line drawings follow the forms of the Tarot de Marseilles, but with looser and bolder interpret...>> Click here for more about Tarot de Maria Celia
Tarocchi Di Marcelo Inciso
A Tribute to the Beauty of Historical Printing Methods and Traditional Tarot Decks. Tarocchi di Marcelo Inciso is a full, 78-card tarot deck inspired by old Tarot decks. The car...>> Click here for more about Tarocchi Di Marcelo Inciso
Waite Smith Tarot, 1909
The original 1st edition published in 1909 by the publisher William Rider & Son of London. Conceived and directed by Arthur E. Waite and created by his artist friend Pamela Coleman...>> Click here for more about Waite Smith Tarot, 1909
The Aquatic Tarot
Andreas Schröter's beautiful water colour interpretation of the classical and original Rider-Waite tarot deck. The images have a soft dreamy appearance which encourages a calm, se...>> Click here for more about The Aquatic Tarot
Tarocco Soprafino
Published around 1835 by the Milanese publisher Ferdinand Gumppenberg and created by Carlo della Rocca this is one of the true classics of Tarot. In the style of the Marseilles ...>> Click here for more about Tarocco Soprafino
CBD Tarot de Marseille
CBD Tarot de Marseille is a faithful reproduction of the traditional Tarot cards. It is based on the standard deck published in Marseille by Nicholas Conver, 1760. Yoav Ben-Dov ...>> Click here for more about CBD Tarot de Marseille
The Short Hand Tarot
The Shorthand Tarot was created to enable readers to write down readings for a client. It abstracts Rider-Waite based Tarot cards to their astrological and elemental symbolism w...>> Click here for more about The Short Hand Tarot
Gilded Reverie Lenormand
Acclaimed artist Ciro Marchetti has transformed the traditional Lenormand cards with a rich, new aesthetic featuring gilded edges and accents. Gilded Reverie Lenormand remains true...>> Click here for more about Gilded Reverie Lenormand
Dondorf Lenormand
This antique Lenormand deck harkens from 1880 and was published by Frankfurt-based Bernhard Dondorf. Dondorf was world-famous for producing high-quality cards using a special litho...>> Click here for more about Dondorf Lenormand
Oracle of Visions
Through lush, Victorian-influenced images, the Oracle of Visions deck offers unique perspectives for insightful and intuitive readings. Rather than relying on a single theme, this ...>> Click here for more about Oracle of Visions
Petit Jeu Lenormand
Geûens-Seaux Lenormand [Petit Jeu de Madame Lenormand] Card number 27 reads: "Déposé en France et en Belgique, Geûens-Seaux, Bruges" Daveluy, Belgium made this deck from 1840 t...>> Click here for more about Petit Jeu Lenormand
© Phuture Me Ltd 2013-2016. All rights reserved.


text:
November 16, 2012
What Will Tomorrow's Microsoft Look Like?
Simon Bisson, ZDNet
AP Photo
It's all change at Redmond, with Julie Larson-Green taking over as Windows chief from Steven Sinofsky. But the underlying shifts at Microsoft run far deeper and will have a profound impact on the next decade of Windows.
TAGGED: Microsoft


text:
Animation College began as part of Freelance Animators Ltd, founded in 1989 by American, John Ewing – a former Disney animator, and design studio owner, Barry Pearce.
Animation College began as part of Freelance Animators Ltd, founded in 1989 by American John Ewing – a former Disney animator – and design studio owner Barry Pearce.
John trained as an animator at Disney Studios in the '50s and '60s, the golden years of the studio, where he helped craft classic features including Sleeping Beauty, Sword in the Stone and The Jungle Book.
In 1967 he moved to New Zealand where he turned his skills to classic commercials including Ches'n'Dale for Chesdale Cheese, Jungle Juice, the Marley Duck and the TV Kiwi.
In the '80s, Freelance Animators were the first dedicated NZ animation studio to carry out contract work for Disney and Warner Bros, including the animated series Tiny Toons for none other than Steven Spielberg.
The next step for John and Barry was to begin teaching others as there was no formal animation training in NZ at this time.
In the decade that followed John trained dozens of animators, many of whom went on to work at Weta in NZ, Blue Sky Studios in New York, Passion Pictures in London and ILM in San Francisco.
Ultimately, the training scheme grew into Freelance Animation School and branched out into modern animation techniques such as 3D animation. In 2012, the school was renamed Animation College.
Animation College is registered as a Private Training Establishment (PTE) with the New Zealand Ministry of Education and was the institute that prepared the first New Zealand unit standards in Character Animation with the Film and Electronic Media (FaEM) Industry Training Organisation.
Animation College is committed to excellent outcomes and operates under systems that meet national and international quality standards. We consult with the animation industry on a regular basis and are governed by the New Zealand Qualifications Authority (NZQA). Our own localised unit standards enable us to make ongoing improvements to courses, meaning that we not only meet NZQA standards but also ensure that the curriculum we deliver is current and meets the changing needs of the industry.
Radio NZ interview with John Ewing
Find out more:


text:
Wherever he is holing up, 'Professor' Pat Hooks is reading, reflecting
Published 6:00 pm, Tuesday, December 9, 2008
Pat Hooks, an old friend who, by now, is squarely in his mid-70s (if at all), once observed: "I can't tell a boom from a bust. My wages stay the same."
In that, he must have found some comfort, as did I, an old newspaperman accustomed to wages worthy of no braggadocio.
Hooks, who found his pathway to Midland via Denver and other adventuresome places more of the mind than scenery, was a painter of the ordinary sort: a house painter. He was not an artistic painter, though his toil was exacting and got him lined up for more work had he chosen to pursue it. Of that, he was quite capable.
And, like a wealthy aristocrat, which he wasn't, he worked when he was so moved.
Rushed he was not.
But Hooks, who became my confidant in helping me to pull out of the wreckage of the past, was fabulously extraordinary and pleasantly nonchalant.
More than merely well-read in classical literature and contemporary works, well-written and thought out, Hooks was a thinker. He could, and did, offer suggestions both straightforward and subtle to others, when asked to do so, toward resolving life's petty and grave trials. Whether he applied counsel to himself was his business and still is, I suppose, wherever he might be.
Back last century before cellular-phone usage became a fad and then a national habit, Hooks set aside his paint brushes and gallons of colors to take up counseling. It suited him well.
Hooks was remarkable and, wherever he is, surely still is whether on Earth or part of it.
He took up counseling society's ne'er-do-wells and miscreants who wound up in the justice system, in jail and in the penitentiary for committing crimes directly or indirectly related to drug abuse and alcoholism, which was his forte as a counselor.
Hooks was a classic: well-mannered, learned, erudite, knowledgeable of the social graces, yet not high-hatted. He appreciated the nuances of a life well-lived and words well-used, such as segue versus shift, one referring to musical themes, the other, to mechanical gears.
Wherever he is - we, his friends, kind of lost track - Hooks from my perspective is a "professor" without a classroom, where he properly belongs. Probably he is not there, but you can never tell.
Still, he has that persona, that temperament of "the ideal" professor beloved by his students, fellow scholars all, who appreciate scholarship, curiosity, skepticism, thought, conscience.
Most likely, he is in a comfortable place with his books in thoughtful reflection rather than taking the effort to lecture.
Hooks was an ordinary wage-earner, nothing spectacular except for his gentle nature and his keen mind devoted to thought and reflection in booms and busts.


text:
Chevron Stripe Print 60" - 7 Colors
Chevron Stripe
100% Polyester 60" wide
Stripes are 15/16" wide.
*Tablecloths over 60" wide are seamed.
Available in seven colors.
Choose a category below to see the sizes, colors, and pricing!
Chevron Rectangle Tablecloths 67.6 USD
Chevron Oval Tablecloths 70.6 USD
Chevron Round Tablecloths 52 USD
Chevron Square Tablecloths 26.7 USD
Chevron Fabric Swatch 0.25 USD
Chevron Table Skirting by the foot 13.4 USD
Chevron Stripe Placemats 104 USD
Chevron Fabric By The Yard 20.1 USD
Chevron Napkins 23 USD
Chevron Runners 29.5 USD
If you are looking for the best custom tablecloths for your event, please browse our collection. We offer a range of designer cloth and vinyl tablecloths in different styles and colors. You can select from various patterns and creative designs. Whether it's a picnic, a barbecue or whether it's an outdoor event, these tablecloths are just perfect for everything.
Your table can get a completely new look & get protection against scratches and spills. Try our elastic covers for a perfect fit and are a secure option.


text:
Posts Tagged 'afl'
CWS Market Review – October 31, 2014
Eddy Elfenbein, October 31st, 2014 at 7:08 am
"Sometimes the hardest thing to do is to do nothing." – David Tepper
I'm happy to report that my favorite investment strategy, doing absolutely nothing, has been very successful of late. The S&P 500 has rallied on nine of the last 11 trading days. On Thursday, the index closed at 1,994.65, which is a dramatic turnaround from the intra-day low of 1,820.66 which we hit just two weeks ago.
The stock market has regained nearly everything it lost during the mini-panic of early October. On Thursday afternoon, the S&P 500 came within 0.6 points of touching 2,000 for the first time in more than a month. Several of our Buy List stocks, like CR Bard, Stryker and Medtronic, recently broke out to new 52-week highs. The sudden reversal clearly upset a lot of market bears. I'm often surprised by how many people are disappointed that the world didn't end.
The big economic news this week was that the Federal Reserve announced that Quantitative Easing will finally come to an end. This has been a hugely misunderstood policy. I'll tell you what this means for the market and our portfolios. We also had some very good Buy List earnings this week. AFLAC not only beat earnings, but it raised its dividend as well. Fiserv beat earnings, raised guidance and broke out to a new 52-week high. Later on, I'll preview our remaining Buy List earnings reports. But first, let's look at what Janet Yellen and her friends at the Fed had to say this week.
QE Finally Comes to an End
The Federal Reserve met earlier this week, and as expected, the central bank announced the end of Quantitative Easing. This was hardly a surprise since the Fed has been gradually tapering its asset purchases for nearly a year.
Let's take a step back and review what QE was all about. Since the economy was in such poor shape, the Fed responded to the financial crisis by lowering interest rates. The problem was that rates were already near 0%, and they couldn't go any lower, yet the economy needed more help. Several models indicated that interest rates need to be negative by a few percentage points.
The Fed then decided that the best way to simulate negative rates would be by buying bonds. Lots and lots of bonds. The Fed had tried bond-buying twice before but had exited both efforts. Then in September 2012, Ben Bernanke embarked on round three, but this one was different. The Fed said it would buy tons of bonds, and it wouldn't stop until things got better. No timeline. That was a strong message the market needed to hear. The Fed's plan was that each month, it would buy $45 billion worth of Treasuries and $40 billion worth of mortgage-backed securities.
The goal of QE was to lower interest rates and thereby help the housing market. Economists are divided on the efficacy of all this bond-buying. Of course, economists are divided on nearly everything. Personally, I'm a pragmatist. I don't know if QE helped, did nothing or even caused more pain, but I can't help noticing that the stock market liked QE a lot. Any pro-QE announcement (or rumor) could send shares soaring, while any hint that it would end would cause a rash of sell orders. That's all the evidence I need.
In addition to helping the stock market, I think QE also gave a boost to riskier assets at the expense of more secure ones. Or at least, those that are perceived as being more secure. Gold, for example, has not done well over the third round of QE. The yellow metal rallied to over $1,920 per ounce three years ago, and it's been a painful ride ever since. On Thursday, gold closed below $1,200 per ounce.
We're in an unusual situation for the market and the economy. For the last few years, the market has done well while the economy has experienced a very tepid recovery. Now it looks as if the economy is poised to do better, but the market probably won't be able to repeat such stellar gains.
On Thursday, the government announced that the economy grew by 3.5% in the third quarter. That's a good number, but some of the details were pretty mediocre. Personal consumption only grew by 1.8%. Frankly, that's kinda blah. Here's what's happening: At first, the economic recovery was held back by the dead weight of the housing market. Then it was held back by austerity by state and local governments. Fortunately, we're now past both those hurdles, so I expect to see better economic growth in the months ahead.
In fact, the economic growth rate of the last two quarters was the best for back-to-back quarters in more than a decade. It doesn't end there. On Tuesday, we learned that Consumer Confidence jumped to a seven-year high. The initial jobless claims reports are still quite good. The only bump this week was a lousy report on Durable Goods.
I'm even going to say something that might be blasphemous on Wall Street, and that's that the monthly jobs reports aren't so important anymore. (GASP!) Of course, they're important in the sense that people are getting more jobs, and we can see that companies are expanding. But don't expect to see any dramatic inflexion points soon. The jobs-growth trend has been established, and that's what the Fed wants to see.
The next question for the market and the Fed is, "When will the central bank finally raise interest rates?" That's a tough one. So far, every forecast (mine included) has been far too premature. Initially, Janet Yellen said that the first rate hike would be about six months after the conclusion of QE. That was a rookie mistake, and she's disavowed those comments ever since.
The futures market currently sees the first rate hike coming in August 2015. I'm a doubter, but I can't say I have a strong conviction either way. The problem is that the Strong Dollar Trade, which I've discussed in recent issues, has held back inflation and economic growth. That gives the Fed a little more breathing room. As a result, that could put off a rate increase for a few more months. I wouldn't be surprised if the first rate hike doesn't come until 2016.
What does this all mean? The overall climate remains the same. As long as rates are low, stocks are the place to be. It's just that simple. This earnings season has been a good one for the market. The latest numbers show that nearly 72% of the stocks in the S&P 500 have topped earnings expectations, while 53.7% have beaten on sales. I should add that these are reduced expectations compared with a few weeks ago. The earnings growth rate is currently tracking at 6.5%. That's not great, but it sure beats anything you'd see in the bond market.
Until interest rates become competitive with stocks, stocks are the best place to be. I encourage investors to keep focusing on high-quality stocks like you see on our Buy List. Now let's turn to our recent earnings reports.
Ford Motor Is Still a Buy
First, though, let me mention Ford Motor ($F) which reported Q3 earnings shortly after I sent you last week's CWS Market Review. The automaker reported earnings of 24 cents per share which topped estimates by five cents per share.
Despite the earnings beat, Wall Street was not pleased with Ford. The company has been plagued by costly recalls and the impact of the strong greenback. For the first time since 2010, Ford had negative quarterly cash flow. The stock dropped 4.3% last Friday. Ford's stock already got beat up a month ago when they said they wouldn't meet their profit goals for this year.
I feel bad for Ford because a lot of this isn't their fault. The automaker has been squeezed by the strong dollar, higher operating costs and weaker economies overseas. I also think investors are nervous that former CEO Alan Mulally is no longer running things.
Still, the big issue facing Ford is the new F-150 with an aluminum body. This is a ballsy move by Ford; the truck is their biggest moneymaker. To get ready for the new production, Ford had to convert some factories and that costs money. Right now, the success of the F-150 is a giant question mark that's weighing on the shares. For its part, Ford has made it clear that they're going ahead with their plans. In fact, they just started with mass production of the truck.
I'm sticking with Ford. The shares currently yield over 3.5%. I admire companies that are trying to change things up.
Strong Earnings from AFLAC, Fiserv and Express Scripts
On Tuesday, AFLAC ($AFL) reported Q3 operating earnings of $1.51 per share. That was eight cents more than estimates. That was even better than the guidance they gave us three months ago, $1.38 to $1.47 per share. Operationally, AFLAC is doing well. The problem has been the weak yen. Fortunately, forex only cost them four cents per share last quarter.
For Q4, AFLAC expects operating earnings to range between $1.28 and $1.37 per share. That assumes the yen stays between 105 and 110 to the dollar. It's currently at 109.29. That brings the full-year earnings estimate to $6.14 to $6.23 per share. For 2015, AFLAC aims to increase their operating earnings by 2% to 7% on a currency-neutral basis.
But the best news was that AFLAC's board decided to raise the quarterly dividend from 37 to 39 cents per share (I had been expecting a one-cent increase). This is the 32nd year in a row that AFLAC has increased its dividend. On Thursday, the shares closed over $60 for the first time in more than seven weeks. AFLAC remains a solid buy up to $63 per share.
Fiserv ($FISV) reported Q3 earnings of 86 cents per share, which was two cents better than expectations. The company also raised expectations. Fiserv now expects 2014 earnings per share between $3.34 and $3.38. The old range was $3.31 to $3.37. For 2013, Fiserv earned $2.99 per share. The new guidance implies Q4 earnings between 86 and 90 cents per share. The Street had been expecting 89 cents per share.
The stock came close to breaking $70 on Wednesday. Fiserv has been on our Buy List all nine years. In the last three years, the stock is up 133%. This week, I'm raising my Buy Below on Fiserv to $72 per share.
Express Scripts ($ESRX) posted earnings of $1.29 per share, which matched expectations. The pharmacy-benefits manager also narrowed their full-year range to $4.86 to $4.90 per share. The previous range was $4.84 to $4.92 per share. The new full-year guidance means that the guidance for Q4 is $1.36 to $1.40 per share. The Street had been expecting $1.38 per share. Basically, the company delivered what was expected, and I'm fine with that. Express Scripts is a buy up to $77 per share.
Moog ($MOG-A) is due to report earnings later this morning. I'll have details on the blog. The consensus on Wall Street is for earnings of $1.08 per share. The stock reached an all-time high on Wednesday.
Earnings Next Week from Qualcomm, Cognizant and DirecTV
Earnings season is almost over, but we have a few more to go. Next Wednesday, November 5, Cognizant Technology Solutions and Qualcomm are due to report.
Cognizant ($CTSH) was our big dud last earnings season. The stock dropped more than 12% after its earnings report. As is often the case, the earnings were quite good: 66 cents per share versus estimates of 62 cents. No, what troubled traders was the guidance. In fact, it wasn't even the earnings guidance, but rather the sales. Cognizant said they see Q3 earnings of at least 63 cents per share, and sales between $2.55 billion and $2.58 billion. Wall Street had been expecting sales of $2.66 billion. Basically, CTSH lowered their full-year sales growth from 16.5% to 14%. That's still very strong growth. Cognizant isn't one to worry about.
Qualcomm ($QCOM) is in an unusual spot. Three months ago, the company crushed earnings. They beat by 22 cents per share. The problem was news out of China. The company is involved in a nasty anti-trust suit with the Chinese government, and they're simply not going to win. Why is the PRC doing this? Because they can.
The company wisely wants to put this dispute behind them, but it's going to be costly. As a result, Qualcomm had rather weak guidance for the September quarter (their fiscal Q4). Qualcomm said it expects earnings between $1.20 and $1.35 per share. That's less than I had been expecting. Time is on Qualcomm's side, and the shares have perked up recently. Look for an earnings beat here.
DirecTV ($DTV) is due to report on Thursday, November 6. The satellite-TV company has been doing just fine lately. The problem hasn't been with them but with their merger partner, AT&T ($T). Shares of T recently fell below the lower bound of $34.90. That, in turns, lowers the merger price for DTV. Fortunately, shares of AT&T have rebounded and may soon go back into the safe range, which would once again value DTV at $95 per share. For the time being, these two stocks are joined at the hip.
That's all for now. The big news next week will be the mid-term elections. Control of the Senate may change hands. On Monday, the ISM report comes out. On Thursday, we'll get a look at the productivity report for Q3. Then on Friday is the big jobs report for September. This is still the biggest economic report, but as I said before, its importance has greatly diminished. We also have many more earnings reports. Be sure to keep checking the blog for daily updates. I'll have more market analysis for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review!
– Eddy
CWS Market Review – September 12, 2014
Eddy Elfenbein, September 12th, 2014 at 7:13 am
"Fate laughs at probabilities." – Edward Bulwer-Lytton
The stock market is continuing with its subdued ways. This past Tuesday, the S&P 500 dropped 0.65%, for its worst day in five weeks. But the arresting part of that stat isn't the drop; rather, it's that the worst day in five weeks was a measly 0.65% loss. By historic standards, that's barely a ripple, and going by what we saw a few years ago, it's next to nothing. Tuesday's plunge snapped the S&P 500's streak of closing up or down by less than 0.5%. That was the longest such streak in 45 years. As I described it last week, this summer has been the Big Chill for Wall Street.
As I expected, the stock market has been a little weak lately. The S&P 500 is down from its all-time high from last Friday. But the interesting action hasn't been in the stock market. Instead, the currency markets have suddenly become very interesting. Over the past few weeks, the U.S. dollar has gotten a lot stronger against many currencies around the world (see the chart of the dollar index below). If you're a traveler, you've probably noticed the effects. Investors need to understand that a strong currency has a large impact on the economy and on our Buy List stocks. In this week's CWS Market Review, I'll review what it all means.
I'll also take a look at the upcoming earnings report from Oracle ($ORCL). Their last report was a dud, but I'm expecting better news this time around. I also want to look at the recent weakness in eBay (EBAY), which is normally a solid stock. But first, let's take a look at last week's sluggish jobs report and what it means for the Federal Reserve's interest-rate plans.
Expect Higher Rates Next Year
Last Friday, shortly after I sent out last week's CWS Market Review, the government reported that the U.S. economy created only 142,000 jobs in August. This was well below Wall Street's forecast, and it snapped the economy's six-month streak of creating more than 200,000 jobs.
The weak jobs report put a wrench into the plans of folks who have been expecting the Fed to raise rates this coming spring. As I've said, I continue to like the stock market as long as interest rates are near the floor (although I expect some minor sluggishness this month). But once the Fed starts to raise interest rates, the game changes.
Think of it this way: It's one thing to like Microsoft ($MSFT) when it's yielding 2.4% and short-term rates are 0% (the one-month Treasury even went negative a few times this week), but it will be quite another if they're both yielding 2%. As always, the game is about risk and reward.
Lately we've been seeing some signs of dissension within the Fed, but that's to be expected as I-Day approaches. (That's my term for the date of the Fed's first rate increase.) Janet Yellen has tried to make it clear that the Fed isn't on a pre-set course, and that they'll change as events change. The Fed meets again next week, and all of Wall Street will be watching. In addition to another $10 billion taper announcement, we'll hear updated interest-rate projections. (I'll warn you, the Fed's track record on predicting the economy is terrible.)
But rather than trying to parse various Fed statements for clues, I think it's better to look at the Fed's arch enemy, which is the bond market. Here I like to follow the one-year Treasury yield as it compares with the two- and three-year yields (see below). Think of this as the "Yellen Chart" because it's mainly focused on the first rate increase. This is an interesting chart to follow because the one-year yield has been remarkably flat, but the two and three-year yields have climbed steadily higher. In fact, the yield on the three-year has tripled since April. Not only that, but the gap between the two- and three-years has widened as well. It's as if the bond market were saying, "higher rates are on the way, but not just yet."
There are also futures contracts that trade on the Fed funds rate. The latest prices indicate that the market expects the Fed funds rate to be at 0.25% by May 2015 and at 0.50% by September. That strikes me as a bit too soon. Right now, I'd place I-Day around the middle of next year.
What's also interesting is that at the same time that the middle part of the yield curve has seen higher interest rates, the long yield of the yield curve has seen lower rates. The yield on the 30-year Treasury is down 69 basis points since the start of the year. Lately, however, long-term rates have started to edge higher, which is what I predicted four weeks ago.
What the Strong Dollar Means for Investors
In last week's issue, I mentioned how the European Central Bank had decided to jump on the bond-buying bandwagon. The economy in Europe has been dreadful, and many euro bonds pay next-to-nothing yields. To quote myself, Mario Draghi is sending a loud message to currency traders: "Please, please, pleeezze bring the euro down!" They're not alone. Japan has embarked on a similar strategy.
As a result, the U.S. dollar has soared. It's not that the greenback is strong in an absolute sense. It's that the dollar is the cleanest of the dirty shirts. Since July, the dollar has rallied from 101 yen to 107 yen today. Meanwhile, the euro has dropped from $1.37 to $1.29.
What's the impact of the strong dollar? This can be confusing, since it seems normal to assume that the conjunction of the words "strong" and "dollar" can only yield positive results, but that's not necessarily the case. Like many things economic, it involves tradeoffs. For example, a strong dollar tends to help imports but hurt our export market. Those of you who do a lot of international travel may have noticed that the stronger dollar helps your purchasing power abroad. The same forces are in play for companies. European stocks look cheaper for American companies, so we can expect to see more international buyouts (like Medtronic/Covidien).
A stronger dollar also takes some of the pressure off the Fed to raise rates so quickly. That's part of the reason I'm skeptical of the futures market on interest rates. People want to invest in the dollar because they see better growth ahead. Goldman Sachs just said that the U.S. economy grew by 4.7% last quarter. If the dollar were weaker, the Fed would have to raise rates to entice people to hold dollars. The dollar rally has taken that potential problem off the table.
Now let's consider the bad effects of the stronger dollar. The dollar's rally against the yen has stung AFLAC ($AFL), which is one of my favorite Buy List stocks. The problem is that AFLAC does about 75% of its business in Japan. As a result, it has to convert that profit from yen into dollars. So a strong yen is good for AFL's bottom line, but a weak one is bad. This is unfortunate, because as far as its business goes, AFLAC is doing quite well. Sadly, a lot of those gains are lost due to currency effects. It's annoying, but to quote Hyman Roth, "this is the business we've chosen."
In July, AFLAC said they expect full-year operating earnings to range between $6.16 and $6.30 per share, but that forecast assumes a yen/dollar exchange rate between 100 and 105. Now it's up to 107, which explains why shares of AFLAC recently slipped below $60.
My view is that the currency effect is mostly transitory. Sometimes it helps you, sometimes it hurts. But if a company is well run, it will most likely stay that way. Unfortunately, AFLAC is getting the short end of this stick lately. I still like the stock a lot, and it's an especially good buy below $60 per share.
A strong dollar also helps keep the lid on inflation, and you can see that in the commodities market. The last few inflation reports have been quite subdued. Last week, I talked about the weakness in gold. This is a direct outcome of the dollar's surge. Commodity prices are staying well behaved. AAA recently said that the average price for gasoline fell to a seven-month low. In turn, that has helped U.S. consumers (remember the strong earnings report from Ross Stores). A lot of energy stocks have not joined in the rally this year. Stocks like Apple, Microsoft and Facebook are all up over 25% this year, but ExxonMobil, one of the largest companies in the world, is down for the year.
I think some of the dollar's strength is due to Russia. In one sense, investors flock to a strong currency in times of stress. But also, any sanctions on Russia will probably hurt Europe as well. A strong dollar tends to correlate with large-cap stocks outperforming small-caps, but it's not a very strong relationship.
The odd part of a rising dollar is that it's usually the result of good news. People are more optimistic about the domestic economy. The problem is that the good news can lead to bad news like weaker imports. Investors should continue to focus on high-quality companies with strong positions in their markets. Don't try to second-guess the forex market. That's a sucker's game. The best companies know how to plan for their markets and they act accordingly. As always, time is on the side of the disciplined investor. Now let's look at Oracle's upcoming earnings report.
Oracle Is a Buy up to $44 per Share
Now that we're in September, we have two Buy List stocks that have quarters ending in August. Bed Bath & Beyond ($BBBY) is due to report its earnings on September 23. Next Thursday, September 18, Oracle ($ORCL) is due to report their fiscal Q1 earnings.
Three months ago, Oracle bombed their last earnings report. For Q4, the House of Ellison earned 92 cents per share, which was three cents below Wall Street's consensus. The company had told us to expect earnings to range between 92 and 99 cents per share. It's unusual to see Oracle hit the low part of their range.
Looking at the numbers, Q4 was surprisingly weak. Quarterly revenue rose only 3.4%, to $11.32 billion, which was $160 million below expectations. One of the keys for Oracle's business is sales of new software licenses. For Q4, that came in at $3.77 billion, which was flat. Their hardware revenue, now finally growing, rose only 2%, to $1.5 billion. One bright spot was that Oracle's cloud revenue jumped 23% to $327 million.
Oracle has said they see Q1 earnings ranging between 62 and 66 cents per share. That's not so bad. Wall Street had been expecting 64 cents per share. Oracle sees quarterly revenue growth between 4% and 6%. Breaking that down, they expect new software-license revenue to be up by 6% to 8%. Hardware will be between -1% and 3%, but cloud revenue is expected to be up by 25% to 35%. If their guidance is accurate, that tells us that last quarter's weakness was temporary. Oracle remains a solid buy up to $44 per share.
Updates on Other Buy List Stocks
Be on the lookout for a dividend increase soon from Microsoft ($MSFT). The software giant isn't normally thought of as a dividend stock, but they've been working to change that. In the last four years, Microsoft has increased its dividend by 115%. The quarterly payout is currently 28 cents per share. I think MSFT will raise it to 31 cents per share. The stock recently broke out to another 14-year high. Microsoft remains a buy up to $48 per share.
In last week's CWS Market Review, I highlighted McDonald's ($MCD) as an especially good buy. Not good timing on my part. This past week, MCD announced their worst monthly sales in ten years. Same-store sales fell 3.7% in August. When it rains, it pours. The company also said that problems with suppliers in China will knock 15 to 20 cents off this quarter's bottom line. The burger joint is also getting bullied in Russia by Colonel Putin's government. A number of McDonald's have been shut down in Russia due to "sanitary" concerns. (Yeah, right.) The stock briefly dropped below $91 per share, which is a very good price. I'm keeping my Buy Below at $101, but if you can pick up shares under $93, that's a good longer-term investment.
Shares of eBay ($EBAY) got beat up this week after Apple announced plans for Apple Pay, which will compete against eBay's PayPal. PayPal is a big money-maker for eBay, and there's been a lot of pressure on the company to sell the division. As I noted a few weeks ago, just a rumor of that news sent shares of eBay higher. Even though eBay has said they're not interested in selling PayPal, I think the market's evident interest will prevail. It usually does. I can't say whether Apple Pay will crush PayPal, but I think it will add more pressure on eBay to move. The board also has "cover" to make an about-face. I'm lowering my Buy Below on eBay to $55 per share.
That's all for now. The Federal Reserve meets again next week, on Tuesday and Wednesday. The Fed will update its economic projections (the blue dots), and Chairwoman Yellen will hold a post-meeting press conference. I expect to hear another $10 billion taper announcement. That will bring their monthly bond purchases down to $15 billion starting in October. Next week, we'll also get the Industrial Production report on Monday and the CPI report on Wednesday. Be sure to keep checking the blog for daily updates. I'll have more market analysis for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review!
– Eddy
Strong Earnings from Fiserv and AFLAC
Eddy Elfenbein, July 30th, 2013 at 9:23 pm
Thanks to a very good earnings report from Harris Corp. ($HRS), our Buy List had another market-beating day. Shares of HRS eventually closed at $56.97 which is a gain of 7.84% for the day. While the broader indexes are just shy of their all-time highs, the Nasdaq closed today at its highest level since September 29, 2000.
The market was also excited that Facebook ($FB) climbed all the way back its IPO price. So IPO investors are back up to…nothing!
After the closing bell, we had two more Buy List earnings reports; Fiserv ($FISV) and AFLAC ($AFL). For the second quarter, Fiserv earned $1.50 per share which was six cents better than Wall Street's consensus. That's a very good number. Quarterly revenues rose 11.8% to $1.14 billion which was a bit short of consensus.
Our strong second quarter results included revenue and earnings acceleration in-line with our full-year expectations," said Jeffery Yabuki, President and Chief Executive Officer of Fiserv. "Performance was led by 7 percent adjusted internal revenue growth in our Payments segment, solid sales and excellent free cash flow.
Fiserv reiterated its full-year guidance of earnings ranging between $5.84 and $6.03 per share. For the first six months of 2013, Fiserv had earned $2.83 per share so I think they're well on their way to hitting that guidance. Earnings are up 16% so far this year, and cash flow is up 22%. This company is clearly doing well. The stock is up 3.55% in the after-hours market.
AFLAC reported Q2 operating earnings of $1.62 per share which was 11 cents better than estimates. Three months ago, the company gave us a range of $1.41 to $1.56 per share, so business is going better-than-expected. Plus, we have to consider that the yen/dollar exchange rate knocked 22 cents off earnings. Without that, operating earnings rose by 14.3%.
For Q3, AFLAC sees operating earnings ranging between $1.41 and $1.51 per share. That's less than the $1.56 per share Wall Street had been expecting. For the full-year guidance, AFLAC lowered the low-end of their range. The previous range was $5.99 to $6.37 per share. Now it's $5.83 to $6.37 per share.
Dan Amos, the CEO, said:
Our objective for 2013 is to increase operating earnings per diluted share 4% to 7%, excluding the impact of the yen. Although we are above that range for the first half of the year, we plan on increasing spending in the second half of 2013. In Japan, we will increase expenditures on advertising and promotion for our new product launch in August. In the United States, we anticipate increased costs associated with initiatives related to health care reform. As such, we expect operating earnings to increase approximately 5% for the full year, before the impact of foreign currency. We will face a difficult comparison in the third quarter due to the tax benefit of $.10 per diluted share recognized in the same period last year. If the yen averages 95 to 105 to the dollar for the third quarter, we would expect earnings in the third quarter to be approximately $1.41 to $1.51 per diluted share. Using that same exchange rate assumption, we would expect full-year reported operating earnings to be about $5.83 to $6.37 per diluted share.
AFLAC Breaks $60
Eddy Elfenbein, July 22nd, 2013 at 12:24 pm
In early 2011, shares of AFLAC ($AFL) got above $59 but were never able to crack $60. Today, they finally did.
AFLAC has been as high as $60.15 today. The last time the stock was over $60 was September 2008.
Six Straight Up Months for the S&P 500
Eddy Elfenbein, April 29th, 2013 at 11:36 am
You'd never know this by reading a lot of financial commentary but the S&P 500 is about to close out its sixth-straight monthly gain. The latest numbers show that 273 of the 500 companies in the S&P 500 have reported earnings so far. Of those, 74% have beaten earnings expectations but 55% have missed sales expectations.
The government reported that personal income rose 0.2% last month. Personal spending was also up 0.2% in March, but that's down from the big 0.7% rise in February. The next big report will be Friday's jobs report. Economists forecast that the U.S. economy created 153,000 jobs last month.
The stock market is doing well this morning. The S&P 500 has been as high as 1,592 which is very close to an all-time high. I should also the note the impressive rally in bonds. On March 15th, the 10-year Treasury yielded 2% exactly. Today it's down to 1.66%.
Shares of AFLAC ($AFL) got as high as $53.95 today. The stock was last above $54 in February.
The Yen Continues to Weigh on AFLAC
Eddy Elfenbein, April 8th, 2013 at 1:58 pm
AFLAC ($AFL) is back below $50 and the culprit isn't hard to spot — the weaker yen. Since October, the yen has gotten hammered by the U.S. dollar.
In March, the yen staged a quick relief rally, but that recently collapsed. It now takes 99 yen to buy one U.S. dollar. In October, it took just 78. I think we're going to break 100 soon.
The reason for the big change is that Japan's new government is aggressively trying to weaken its currency in order to help their economy. The Nikkei Index has responded by shooting up from 9,000 to as high as 13,200. That's a huge move for such a short time period.
AFLAC said in their 10-K that if the yen averages 100 for this year, that will shave 87 cents off their operating earnings-per-share. At 100 yen to the dollar, AFLAC's earnings range would be $5.99 to $6.19 per share for 2013.
Exchange Rate EPS Range Growth Rate Yen Impact 79.81 $6.86 to $7.06 3.9% to 7.0% $0.00 85 $6.60 to $6.80 0% to 3% -$0.26 90 $6.37 to $6.57 (3.5%) to (0.5%) -$0.49 95 $6.17 to $6.37 (6.5%) to (3.5%) -$0.69 100 $5.99 to $6.19 (9.2%) to (6.2%) -$0.87
The Derisking Program at AFLAC
Eddy Elfenbein, March 6th, 2013 at 1:44 pm
One of key aspects in understanding AFLAC ($AFL) is that the company has greatly reduced its exposure to problem areas around the world. I don't believe the market fully sees this. Kriss Cloninger, AFLAC's CFO, recently discussed their investment portfolio at Citi's 2013 U.S. Financial Services Conference.
Now, let me discuss how we've substantially enhanced our investment portfolio over the last few years. From January 2008 to the end of 2012, we dramatically cut our holdings of sovereign and financial instruments in the PIGS countries. We've also lowered our investments in perpetual securities. And the successful derisking program that we completed in mid-2012 has enabled us to focus on enhancing portfolio quality.
The U.S. corporate bond program we initiated in the third quarter of 2012 continues to be an effective means for enhancing our new money yields in the Japan portfolio. You'll recall in the last half of 2012, our objective was to invest roughly two-thirds of our investment cash flow and U.S. dollar denominated publicly traded corporate bonds and then hedged the currency risk on principal back to yen.
This successful investment program enabled us to surpass our budgeted new money yield for 2012. And it has also provided greater liquidity and enhanced the flexibility of our portfolio while increasing the opportunities to diversify our portfolio beyond JGBs.
At December 31, this U.S. corporate bond program represented about 6.2% of our total portfolio. In light of the success of the corporate bond program last year and strong credit fundamentals of the investment grade corporate credits, we intend to continue this program in the first quarter of this year. Consistent with our asset allocation program, we'll balance these investments with some JGBs for diversification and liquidity as well as other investment opportunities as they arise.
Our ability to continue to implement new strategies is based on the evolving capabilities of the AFLAC global investment division. We're going to continue to build this framework to support investments and newer asset classes and then move forward accordingly and we'll update you on our progress with our analyst meeting in May.
We've defined our investment objectives as maximizing risk adjusted performance subject to our liability profile and capital requirements. It's important to note that all of our strategies have been back tested against our capital ratios and the ratios we're trying to achieve.
AFLAC "Is One of the Cheapest Stocks in the S&P 500 Right Now"
Eddy Elfenbein, March 1st, 2013 at 11:23 am
Teresa Rivas at Barron's make the case for AFLAC ($AFL):
The Aflac duck endures many misfortunes in the insurance company's goofy advertisements, from scorched feet to a broken bill. Now the stock is taking a beating as well, following a drop in Japan's currency, and this has created an opportunity for investors.
"This is one of the cheapest stocks in the S&P 500 right now, especially among companies that are going to report earnings, not losses," says Bill Smead, portfolio manager of the Smead Value Fund. "This is a premier financial services and insurance company—a storm doesn't come in and turn a company upside down. If you look at the 2011 tsunami, even though 75% of Aflac's revenue comes from Japan, [the disaster] didn't really have any impact."
"It has low price-to-earnings and price-to-book [ratios], and yet the company is going to be turning in a fairly healthy return on equity in 2013, so there's a disconnect between the price today and the returns the company is providing."
Still, the stock price doesn't reflect Aflac's long-term potential. Its premium brand name is an asset in Japan, where it has long enjoyed a stellar reputation, and, thanks to the duck, it is well known in the U.S.
"If you put 100 people in a room and give them the generic category of supplemental health insurance, I don't think anyone would be able to say any name other than Aflac," says Smead. "If savvy people can't tell you who a company's No. 2 competitor is, they've won the game before it starts."
CWS Market Review – February 8, 2013
Eddy Elfenbein, February 8th, 2013 at 8:12 am
That money talks I'll not deny,
I heard it once: It said, "Goodbye."
-Richard Armour
Last Friday, the Dow pierced 14,000 for the first time in five years. But as I suspected, investors got a case of the jitters, and the Dow hasn't been able to hold 14,000. We even had a small uptick in volatility as the S&P 500 had three straight moves of greater than 1%. One money manager said, "We've moved so far so fast that the market's just looking for any kind of sign to take something off the table." I think that's exactly right.
Wall Street is still focused on earnings. While fourth-quarter earnings season has been good (not great), I'm starting to have concerns that Wall Street's earnings outlook is too optimistic. According to the Street, earnings growth will accelerate, meaning the pace of growth itself will increase, throughout 2013. That's certainly possible, but I see that as a best-case scenario. More likely, earnings growth will flat-line or grow rather modestly.
That's not necessarily awful news. Corporate America has been raking it in lately. The companies in the S&P 500 will probably net a cool $1 trillion this year. But we have to face the fact that the easy money in this bull market has already been made. Stocks have more than doubled in less than four years. The next four years won't be so fortunate.
That's why I urge all investors to focus on high-quality stocks for the long term like the stocks on our Buy List. We had more good news this week, including a 21% dividend increase from Ross Stores ($ROST), and JPMorgan ($JPM) reached yet another 52-week high. Now let's look at some of our earnings reports this week.
AFLAC Is a Buy up to $54 per Share
After the close on Tuesday, AFLAC ($AFL) reported fourth-quarter earnings of $1.48 per share. Make no mistake: this was a solid quarter for the duck stock, and it was squarely in line with what they told us to expect. Three months ago, AFLAC said Q4 EPS should range between $1.46 and $1.51.
But here's the issue for us: Since most of AFLAC's business comes from Japan, their bottom line can be adversely impacted (or helped) by fluctuations in the yen/dollar exchange rate. Lately, the government in Japan has aggressively stated its intention of pursuing a pro-inflation policy. That's caused the yen to tank against the dollar. In response, the Nikkei Index has soared.
As I said, AFLAC as a business is fine and dandy and as strong as it's ever been. I want to make it clear that I'm not overly worried about the exchange rate, but I have to say that it's an issue for investors. AFLAC said the falling yen cost dinged their Q4 by four cents per share. Not fun, but not a disaster either. Bear in mind that AFLAC's full-year earnings for 2012 were actually helped by one penny per share, thanks to the exchange rate. So it works in both directions.
For all of 2012, AFLAC made $6.60 per share in operating earnings. The company said it sees operating earnings growth of 4% to 7% for this year. On a currency-neutral basis, that means operating earnings of $6.86 to $7.06 per share.
Now here's the tricky part (warning: math ahead). Each move in the exchange rate of one yen from 78.5 will cost AFLAC 4.3 cents per share for the year. So if the exchange rate averages 90 for the entire year, that will cost AFLAC 49.45 cents per share (11.5 times 4.3). That stings, but it's roughly 50 cents per share out of $7 of earnings. It's not enough for me to change my opinion that AFLAC is a very solid stock to own. And of course, I have no idea what the exchange rate will do this year. However, I suspect that most of the damage to the yen has already been done.
Shares of AFL pulled back after the earnings report, but the stock is basically where it was three months ago. AFLAC remains an excellent company. Due to the recent pullback, I'm going to lower my Buy Below to $54 per share.
Good News from FISV and CTSH, Bad News from WXS
Also on Tuesday, Fiserv ($FISV) reported Q4 earnings of $1.39 per share, which exactly matched Wall Street's forecast. The company already told us that this was going to be a good quarter. Remarkably, this is Fiserv's 27th-straight year of double-digit earnings growth. There aren't many companies that can boost a record like that.
For 2012, Fiserv earned $5.13 per share, which is a very nice increase over the $4.58 per share they made in 2011. Fiserv said that they expect growth of 15% to 18% for this year, and they specified an earnings range of $5.88 to $6.07 per share. If that's correct, FISV is going for less than 14 times this year's earnings. This is a solid stock. Fiserv is a buy up to $88 per share.
We had a great earnings report from Cognizant Technology Solutions ($CTSH) on Thursday. The company reported Q4 earnings of 99 cents per share, which is up from 84 cents for Q4 of 2011. That's eight cents more than the Street had been expecting. Quarterly revenue rose 17.1% to $1.95 billion. For all of 2012, revenue rose 20% to $7.35 billion, and earnings-per-share increased from $3.07 in 2011 to $3.70 for 2012. This is clearly a rapidly-growing outfit.
Cognizant also offered very impressive guidance for Q1 and all of 2013. The company sees Q1 revenue rising by 20% to "at least" $2 billion and expects earnings-per-share to hit $1.01. Wall Street had been expecting 93 cents per share. For the whole year, CTSH sees revenue climbing to "at least" $8.6 billion. That's an increase of 17%. Cognizant also sees earnings-per-share of at least $4.31. That's a big increase over Wall Street's expectation of $4.00 per share. CTSH is an excellent buy anytime you see it below $81.
Our dud this week came from WEX Inc. ($WXS). The company reported fourth-quarter earnings of $1.07 per share, which was a penny below consensus. Quarterly revenue rose 20.9% to $169 million.
But the earnings weren't the bad part; it was the guidance. For Q1, WXS expects earnings to range between 89 cents and 96 cents per share. The Street had been expecting $1.08 per share. For all of 2013, WXS sees earnings between $4.30 and $4.50 per share. The Street was expecting $4.88 per share. For all of 2012, WXS made $4.06 per share which was a nice increase from $3.64 per share on 2011.
Frankly, this guidance is very disappointing news. I'm not ready to toss in the towel with WXS; the stock has been a huge winner for us over the last eight months. But for now, I'm going to lower the Buy Below price to $72.
Ross Stores Is a Buy up to $62
Ross Stores ($ROST) gave us great news this week. The retailer reported blowout sales for January, and thanks to the rush of business, Ross sees Q4 earnings coming in at $1.06 to $1.07 per share, and $3.52 to $3.53 per share for the entire year. (Note that like a lot of retailers, Ross ends their fiscal year at the end of January.) The earnings report should be out in mid-March.
But the best news is that Ross raised their quarterly dividend from 14 cents to 17 cents per share. That's a 21% hike. Ross pays out a very small amount of their profits as dividends to shareholders (about 20%). Based on Thursday's closing price, Ross yields 1.13%. That's obviously not a very high yield, but the dividend increase and strong sales news are a good omen for Ross Stores. ROST remains a very good buy up to $62.
Before I go, I want to highlight two Buy List stocks that look especially attractive. Again, Microsoft ($MSFT) looks very good here. The pullback in Harris ($HRS) seems about done. Shares of HRS got hit hard for a modest decrease in guidance.
That's all for now. Next week, we get important reports on retail sales and industrial production. Our final earnings report of this cycle will be from DirecTV ($DTV) on Wednesday, February 13th. Wall Street expects $1.13 per share. Be sure to keep checking the blog for daily updates. I'll have more market analysis for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review!
– Eddy
AFLAC's 2013 Outlook
Eddy Elfenbein, February 6th, 2013 at 1:31 pm
From the earnings call, here's AFLAC's ($AFL) outlook for this year (I think Seeking Alpha's transcription is rather muffled, but you can follow what they're saying):
Lastly, let me comment on the earnings outlook for 2013. As you've heard Dan say, we've affirmed our guidance for 2013 of 4% to 7% increase in operating earnings per diluted share, excluding the impact of the yen. To understand the significant our 2013 EPS objective over 2012 actual results winning to this perspective for you.
In 2012, we received tax benefit from our tax exempt for the years 2008 and 2009, and we've made a revision for the full year impact of tax effective tax rate. The unusual benefits received in 2012 totaled approximately $38 or $0.08 per share. We also recovered a previously written-off coupon as part of the sales transaction executed during the year that resulted in a one-time benefit to operating earnings of $23 million, or $0.05 per share. If you exclude the impact of these benefits from the 2012 operating earnings note, operating earnings per diluted share in sale would have been $6.47.
This year we estimate that a one yen move on the average annual exchange rate will equal approximately $4.3 for diluted share. Considering the weakening of the yen in recent months, if we achieve our objective of 4% to 7% increase in operating earnings per diluted share for the year at yen averages 90 for the full year, we would expect operating EPS to be in the range of $6.37 to $6.57 per diluted share.
The yen is currently at 93.345 to the dollar.
- Tweets by @EddyElfenbein
- February 2018
- January 2018
- December 2017
- November 2017
- October 2017
- September 2017
- August 2017
- July 2017
- June 2017
- May 2017
- April 2017
- March 2017
- February 2017
- January 2017
- December 2016
- November 2016
- October 2016
- September 2016
- August 2016
- July 2016
- June 2016
- May 2016
- April 2016
- March 2016
- February 2016
- January 2016
- December 2015
- November 2015
- October 2015
- September 2015
- August 2015
- July 2015
- June 2015
- May 2015
- April 2015
- March 2015
- February 2015
- January 2015
- December 2014
- November 2014
- October 2014
- September 2014
- August 2014
- July 2014
- June 2014
- May 2014
- April 2014
- March 2014
- February 2014
- January 2014
- December 2013
- November 2013
- October 2013
- September 2013
- August 2013
- July 2013
- June 2013
- May 2013
- April 2013
- March 2013
- February 2013
- January 2013
- December 2012
- November 2012
- October 2012
- September 2012
- August 2012
- July 2012
- June 2012
- May 2012
- April 2012
- March 2012
- February 2012
- January 2012
- December 2011
- November 2011
- October 2011
- September 2011
- August 2011
- July 2011
- June 2011
- May 2011
- April 2011
- March 2011
- February 2011
- January 2011
- December 2010
- November 2010
- October 2010
- September 2010
- August 2010
- July 2010
- June 2010
- May 2010
- April 2010
- March 2010
- February 2010
- January 2010
- December 2009
- November 2009
- October 2009
- September 2009
- August 2009
- July 2009
- June 2009
- May 2009
- April 2009
- March 2009
- February 2009
- January 2009
- December 2008
- November 2008
- October 2008
- September 2008
- August 2008
- July 2008
- June 2008
- May 2008
- April 2008
- March 2008
- February 2008
- January 2008
- December 2007
- November 2007
- October 2007
- September 2007
- August 2007
- July 2007
- June 2007
- May 2007
- April 2007
- March 2007
- February 2007
- January 2007
- December 2006
- November 2006
- October 2006
- September 2006
- August 2006
- July 2006
- June 2006
- May 2006
- April 2006
- March 2006
- February 2006
- January 2006
- December 2005
- November 2005
- October 2005
- September 2005
- August 2005
- July 2005