text:
100: Introduction to Building Construction. (3-3-0)
An overview of the practice of building construction which incorporates first year experience methodology with an introduction to the college major and future professions. Principles of self-discovery include a self-directed learning plan, strengths assessment, and relation of personal characteristics to career success. A strong hands-on component in critical thinking and a research project for professional ethics are also included.
101: Materials and Methods I and Laboratory. (3-2-3)
Prerequisite: CONS 100 and MATH 102
The properties of most common construction materials are covered along with calculation methods for determining the suitability of materials for given applications. Properties covered include loads and load resistance; thermal; air and water vapor flow; fire-related; acoustical; expansion and contraction; and sustainable construction. A general overview of the construction process is also provided. Lab provides opportunities for hands-on practice of learned methods.
102: Materials and Methods II and Laboratory. (3-2-3)
Prerequisite: CONS 101 and MATH 112
Detailed coverage of common methods of commercial and residential construction is provided including: site layout and preparation, foundation, structural, exterior finishes (walls, openings, and roofs), interior systems (insulation, finishes, and lighting) and engineered systems (mechanical, electrical, plumbing, fire suppression, and sustainability). Special emphasis is placed on safety, modern tools and equipment. Lab provides opportunities for hands-on practice of learned methods.
140: Construction Safety and the OSHA Standards. (3-3-0)
Prerequisite or Corequisite: CONS 100
A presentation of material focusing on the theories and principles of construction safety and health. Special emphasis is placed on the needs of modern construction professionals and on the construction requirement set forth by OSHA and other regulatory agencies. The OSHA 30 Hr. Construction Safety certification exam is required.
150: Construction Contracting and Laws. (3-3-0)
Prerequisite: CONS 100
Contractual obligations for construction project delivery, contract hierarchies, and contract types will be examined. Bid systems will be covered. Common case law holdings and industry customs are reviewed. Regulatory issues--such as codes, code compliance, zoning and inspections--are explained. Red flag issues are explored.
160: Construction Graphics and Specifications and Laboratory. (3-2-3)
Prerequisite or Corequisite: CONS 101
Practice in light commercial and residential construction graphics interpretation is presented. Construction graphics describing common construction materials and methods are covered in detail. Interpretation of topographic, engineering, structural, plumbing, electrical, and mechanical graphics is practice in lab. Emphasis is placed on residential and commercial building code requirements and Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA) requirements.
200: Sustainable Construction Science. (3-3-0)
Prerequisites: CONS 101 and CONS 102
Introduction to the technologies of sustainable construction focusing on energy efficiency, sustainable materials, environmental impact and indoor air quality. Impacts of sustainable construction studied will include changes to the building process, verification and reporting, and meeting the needs of present generations without compromising the abilities of future generations.
201: BPI Energy Analyst Certification Prep Class. (1-1-0)
Prerequisites: CONS 103, CONS 107, CONS 109, CONS 111, and CONS 180
This course covers the material needed to prepare students to take the written and performance test required to be awarded the Building Performance Institutes Building Analyst Certification.
205: Mechanical, Electrical and Plumbing Systems. (3-3-0)
Prerequisites: CONS 101 and CONS 102
An overview of the mechanical, electrical and plumbing systems commonly used in multi-story commercial buildings. Presents the fundamentals of air conditioning, heating, plumbing, and lighting, along with electrical/communications wiring and equipment. Specialty equipment for energy-efficient construction is introduced.
210: Construction Surveying and Laboratory. (3-2-3)
Prerequisite: CONS 102 and CONS 160
The course includes accurate measuring of distance, theory and practice of leveling, angles and theodolites, basic operations of total stations, traverse surveys and computations, branches of geomatics, global positioning systems, and control surveys. Both horizontal and vertical construction elements are discussed.
220: Construction Estimating and Laboratory (4-3-3)
Prerequisite: CIS 105, CONS 102, and CONS 160
Instruction in material quantity calculation techniques based upon contract documents, specifications, and working drawings. Quantity Take-Off (QTO) for labor, materials, and equipment costs are calculated. Profit and overhead are estimated. Manual and computer based estimating are practiced in lab, and a complete estimate is prepared and evaluated.
230: Statics and Strengths of Materials and Lab. (3-2-3)
Prerequisites: CONS 102 and CONS 160
Resolution of forces, equilibrium, application of statics for simple structures, centroids, moments of inertia; materials in tension, compression, bending; shear and moment diagrams; design of simple structures using materials with varying structural properties. Lab provides opportunities for hands-on practice of the learned calculations.
250: Construction Management I and Laboratory. (3-2-3)
Prerequisite: CONS 102, CONS 150, CONS 160, and CONS 220
This course covers the responsibilities and duties of the project manager, field superintendent, and building contractor. Management decisions and documentation related to organization, synchronization, and cost/schedule control of construction activities are practiced.
280: Construction Management Internship. (1-1-0)
Prerequisite or Corequisite: CONS 250
Designed as a shadowing experience, students will work under the direct supervision of a Construction Manager learning first-hand the day-to-day challenges of managing a construction project both in the field and in the office. Students will prepare and annotate a Construction Log of the activities of the project, and success in the course will be based upon the annotated Log and the supervising manager's evaluation.


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GMA-7's Unang Hirit will begin airing their Hiritan 2013: Senatorial Candidates Edition starting today.
The series which is the second cycle of Hiritan 2010 will have Ernesto Maceda of United Nationalist Alliance, Jun Magsaysay of Liberal Party, independent candidate Edward Hagedorn and United Nationalist Alliance's Loren Legarda for the premiere offering today.
The special series will be divided into three rounds, which is expected to run for an hour, coming off at the second block of the GMA-7 morning show. In Round 1, anchor Arnold Clavio will ask each candidate the Question of the Day on a current divisive issue.
eto link: http://www.medianewser.com/2013/01/h...rts-today.html
Go Loren! Alam ko hindi nyo siya gusto pero sya ang pinakamagaling.
Log In

subset: commoncrawl


text:
Palin defends Dr. Laura over N-word rant: 'Be thankful for her voice, America'
Former Republican vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin on Wednesday defended Laura Schlessinger, the radio host whose recent racially-charged remarks to a black caller led her to announce the end of her program.
"Dr. Laura," as she is best-known, created an uproar after using the N-word eleven times during a conversation with a caller. She announced Tuesday that she will end the show this year, lamenting her inability to speak freely without being attacked.
In two separate Twitter postings Wednesday night, a bullish Palin implored Americans to be "thankful" for Dr. Laura's voice and blamed her departure on "Constitutional obstructionists" who trampled her First Amendment rights.
As for Schlessinger, Palin urged her to "reload" and not "retreat," declaring that she'd be "even more powerful" and "effective" without "the shackles."
Palin's first Tweet:
Palin's second Tweet:
Palin's claims reflect, at best, a questionable interpretation of the First Amendment, which was designed to prevent government from restricting free-speech rights — not to provide citizens immunity from public controversy over potentially offensive remarks.
Palin joins numerous conservative activists and commentators, including blogger Michelle Malkin, in defending Schlessinger against fierce criticism over last week's comments.
When confronted by the caller about her use of the N-word, Schlessinger responded: "Black guys use it all the time. Turn on HBO, listen to a black comic, and all you hear is n—-r, n—-r, n—-r."
After controversy erupted with calls for her resignation, including from the liberal watchdog Media Matters for America, Schlessinger admitted the following day she did the "wrong thing." She also lashed back at her critics.
"My First Amendment rights have been usurped by angry, hateful groups who don't want to debate," Schlessinger said. "They want to eliminate."
While she will likely appreciate Palin's defense, Schlessinger hasn't always had kind words for the former half-term governor. "I am extremely disappointed in the choice of Sarah Palin as the Vice Presidential candidate of the Republican Party," she blogged in September of 2008.


text:
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London Viewers and their Certificates, 1508-1558: Certificates of the Sworn Viewers of the City of London
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This weeks DJ Music Chart has Katy Perry on top again with "Dark Horse". Lorde "Team" is right behind with number two, the rest of the top five Bastille "Pompeii", Pharrell Williams "Happy" and Jason Derulo "Talk Dirty". Lorde is close to having back to back number one hits as the first New Zealander to top the DJ Music Charts.
DJ Music Chart – Week of March 10
DJ Music Chart – Week of March 10 Featuring Pharrel Williams "Happy"
"Happy" is a song performed by American singer and producer Pharrell Williams, from the Despicable Me 2 soundtrack album. It also serves as the lead single from Williams' second studio album, G I R L (2014). The song was written and produced by Williams. It was released on November 21, 2013 alongside a long-form music video presented via the website 24hoursofhappy.com. The song was reissued on December 16, 2013 by Back Lot Music, under exclusive license to Columbia Records, a division of Sony Music Entertainment.
"Happy" has been highly successful, topping the US Billboard Hot 100 chart and DJ music charts in 19 other countries. It has sold one million copies in the United Kingdom, and has reached the summit on three separate occasions, both records in their own right.
DJ Music Chart – Featuring Pharrel Williams "Happy" Music Video
To coincide with the single release, the website 24hoursofhappy.com was launched featuring a visual presentation of "Happy" advertised as being "the world's first 24 hour music video". The video consists of the four-minute song repeated with various people dancing around Los Angeles and miming along. Williams himself appears 24 times on the hour, and there are a number of celebrity cameos including Whit Hertford (1:04am), Kelly Osbourne (1:28am), Magic Johnson (5:36am), Urijah Faber (8:36am), Sérgio Mendes(10:32am) and Jimmy Kimmel (11:48am), Odd Future (1:48pm), Steve Carell (5:08pm), Jamie Foxx (5:28pm), Ana Ortiz (5:32pm), Miranda Cosgrove (5:40pm),JoJo (6:16pm). The minions from Despicable Me 2 make several appearances throughout the film, including one scene at 3:00am, in which Pharrell and the minions dance in a movie theatre that is playing the scene from Despicable Me 2 in which "Happy" appears. A lone, one eyed minion also appears dancing to song in its entirety at 4:40pm. The site allows users to navigate to various points in the 24-hour timeframe, including all 360 four-minute segments and each hourly segment with Pharrell. An official four-minute edit of the video was also released on YouTube. The video's creative director was Yoann Lemoine.
The original video spawned many cover videos on YouTube in which people from different cities throughout the world dance along the song. Those videos are usually called "Pharrell Williams – Happy – We Are from [name of the city].
What a great video to feature for this week's DJ Music Cart song! So full of energy and fun!
What is your favorite song on this DJ Music Chart?
DJ Mystical Michael Rhode Island DJ & Boston DJ
Ask about my Rhode Island Wedding DJ & Rhode Island Party DJ Guarantee!


text:
We were so excited to wake up to the news this morning that General Hospital's Kirsten Storms (Maxie) and former GH star Brandon Barash (Ex-Johnny) welcomed into the world late last evening the newest addition to their family … a baby girl!
Brandon tweeted the news by stating: "Our passenger has touched down and arrived. Welcome to our world. There has not been a more fulfilling day.
@teenystweeting #babygirlbarash"
The popular duo revealed they were married last June and Storms was pregnant in an article in PEOPLE this past August.
A flurry of well wishes from Kirsten and Brandon's GH co-stars came in over the last several hours on Twitter including the series head writer Ron Carlivati who expressed:
"@BrandonBarash @teenystweeting Congratulations, Brandon & Kirsten! So happy for you guys! xoxo"
Congratulations to the new Mom and Dad! Please post your well-wishes for the happy couple in our comment section below!


text:
Tennessee Titans running back LenDale White defended his friend and teammate Vince Young regarding recent statements made by the quarterback about the possibility of being traded.
White, speaking on radio station KLAC in Los Angeles Monday, says Young is only a competitor who wants to play in recent remarks made about perhaps seeking a trade from the Titans if he is not the starter.
The quarterback's agent Major Adams later distanced himself and Young from those remarks.
"You know, I was with Vince yesterday and Vince is very competitive," White said Monday. "That's just the competitive side of him. He wants to play and I understand that.
"I want to play and be the starter. I feel like if the Titans didn't want me, there are plenty of other teams that will. That's just the competitive nature of yourself. Vince is a Titan and he loves that. He loves being in the locker room with us, he loves being around us. But it's that itch to play — he loves playing football."
In an ESPN interview that aired over the weekend, Young admitted to not wanting to play football after his injury and being booed by fans in the season opener last year against Jacksonville. White said Young adjusting [1] to a backup role has been a tough one.
"You're talking about a guy who arguably had one of the best games ever coming out of college, then he won Rookie of the Year, going to the playoffs and now sitting on the bench," White said. "You know, it's hard, it's hard. For anybody it'd be hard but you know, he's a strong-minded guy and Vince Young is going to be all right. He'll be better than ever when he does get his chance."
White, whose reporting weight was down to 238 pounds this March, said he hopes to have a 1,000-yard season, whether he starts or continues as a backup to Chris Johnson.
"The way I've been working this offseason, a lot of those runs that went for 1 or 2 yards are going to go for a lot longer this year," White said. "So I feel like I can go for 1,000 yards if I' the starter, the backup, whatever I need to do. I think that's the kind of contribution I'm looking forward to giving my team this year."
[1] http://www.nashvillecitypaper.com/content/sports/analysis-can-young-find-closure-2008


text:
2015 has been a crazy year so far, and it's only the middle of March [insert crazy face emoji here]! Do you ever feel like your life is moving so fast and you can't catch up? That's kind of how we feel the past 2.5 months have been for us: just straight up crazy.
One of the things we (David and myself) have been working on is a kitchen update/remodel! We decided to take on (for the most part) the task ourselves, and I think we bit off a bit more than we could chew. We are working hard on nights and weekends to get things finished, but it's taking what seems like forever. A lot of that is because we are learning much of what we are doing as we go – it is a fun, yet exhausting process. A couple of weeks ago we discovered hardwood floors underneath tile and linoleum flooring, so we hired a crew of guys to come out and unearth them for us. They're GORGEOUS … and might be what I am most excited about! I can't wait to share a kitchen reveal with you guys when it is all finished. Crossing my fingers it's by 2016 haha!
Another thing I've been working on that's been pretty hush hush is that I am now an "established" designer with Art Gallery Fabrics!! I am beyond excited to be working alongside the BEST in the industry and seriously can't wait to share more with you! I have a new (FULL) collection of fabrics that will debut at spring quilt market in Minneapolis (will I see you there?) that I think you all are going to LOVE! It's got a totally different vibe from Gleeful, but is still true to me. I love it and cannot wait to share it with you all!
So, those are my two bits of exciting news for today. I have some more fun news that I can't wait to share with you soon-ish as well… a few details are still being worked out! I hope you have a happy Monday + great week!


text:
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text:
Given a point P in the interior of an angle with vertex O, find points A and B on the sides of the angle so that OA=OB and the sum PA+PB is minimal
We want OA = OB, so
leads to
So the coordinates of A and B are:
Let the coordinates of point P be simply .
Now you want to set up an expression for the the distance
Now you take it from here.
Than you very much Dan.
Could you please prove that angles BPO and APO are equal?
I cannot do it using coordinate system (I like classical geometry solutions , and I am not so good in coordinate system - I just do not like counting) So I thaught about normal solution, maybe using symmetry ? I think this problem is not so hard to do it using coordinate system - but if You want to use it Dan, please show me whole solution with proving that angles BPO and APO are equal. Could you please help me with whole solution ??
Here's a hint for what to do with your distance equation in case it comes in handy:
Solve to get the critical points.
Here's a more geometric approach to the problem, which answers the question about angles.
Rotate the diagram through an angle about the point O (where is the angle AOB), so that A goes to A', B goes to B' and P goes to P'. Superimpose the rotated diagram on the original diagram. Then A' coincides with B (because OA=OB). We want to minimise AP+PB = BP'+PB. But this is easy: the minimum obviously occurs when PBP' is a straight line.
So the construction goes as follows: rotate P through the angle AOB about the point O, to get P'. Then B is the point where PP' crosses the line OB.
The triangle OPP' is isosceles (because OP=OP'). Therefore the angles OP'B and BPO are equal. But OP'B=OPA. So the angles BPO and OPA are equal.
. . . . . . . . .
Ok, I understand - but tell me - You take hypothetical pionts A and B, and then you rotare everything and you say that this sum AP+PB is the smalles when PBP' is a straight line?
I mean the construction is like that:
We have an angle with vertex O and point P inside. We put hypothetical pionts A and B such that OA=OB and THEN we rotate "everything" - and then we say that this sum AP+PB is the smalles when PBP' is a straight line?
And thank You very much


text: Karthi, I live in Southern California, so I just called UVP's toll-free number and left a message on their answering machine to call you. I gave them both your phone numbers as well as your e-mail address. Hope this helps! --Bruce Windoffer Karthi Ramachandran wrote: > > Hello everyone, > > I have been trying to contact this company in California called UV > products. <snip> Could > you please call them and get the price info on the products for me. > <more snip> > Thank you very much for your help. > Please reply to karthi at deakin.edu.au > > Karthi. R > > --------------------------------------------------------------------------- > Karthikeyan Ramachandran Ph.D > Research Fellow, Rm. No. SA136 > School of Biological and Chemical Sciences > Faculty of Science and Technology Phone (Off) (052) 271 406 > Deakin University Phone (Res) (052) 419 806 > Geelong, Victoria Fax (052) 272 022 > Australia 3217 e-mail karthi at deakin.edu.au > Home page http://www.deakin.edu.au/~karthi/


text:
Americans for Job Security Opposes Candidates Who Voted for Job Security
The first clue that the real purpose of "Americans for Job Security" may not match its name is its address: 107 South West Street PMB Alexandria, Virginia. Alexandria, just across the Potomac from Washington DC, is the home base for thousands of political front groups, and 107 South West Street is the address of a joint Mail Boxes, Etc. and UPS Store. This organization runs out of a post office box. It's trying to hide something.
Review official Federal Election Commission records for the two distinct committees officially registered at the same address as the "Americans for Job Security" and it will appear to you as if the group received no contributions from anyone and made no contributions to any candidate. But appearances are deceiving. Tucked away in a separate corner of the FEC website is a listing of "independent expenditures" made in favor of or against the election of candidates by groups whose spending is completely unlimited and who are able to hide the names of their contributors without consequence. According to that database, Americans for Job Security has spent $4,368,528 between September 9 and October 1 of this year, paying for advertisements against the re-election of the following Democratic members of the House of Representatives:
Jason Altmire
Michael Arcuri
Rick Boucher
Bob Etheridge
Larry Kissell
John Salazar
Heath Shuler
Zack Space
"Americans for Job Security's" spending also has gone into advertisements against the election of Trent Van Haaften and Bryan Lentz, two non-incumbent Democratic Party candidates running for two open seats in Indiana's 8th district and Pennsylvania's 7th district.
The 8 Democratic incumbents against which "Americans for Job Security" is spending millions of dollars of mystery money are hardly left-wingers or even liberals. In our scale of voting and cosponsorship of important bills in this term of the House of Representatives, the candidates score an average of only +5.25 in the range of -100 (right wing) to +100 (left wing).
But the 8 congressmen targeted by "American for Job Security" do have one act in common: each of these members of Congress voted against the Mack Amendment. The Mack Amendment, if passed, would have slapped aside the usual rule for federally-funded projects that construction workers be paid at least the prevailing wage of the area in compensation for their labor. That prevailing wage standard is not high to begin with, at poverty-level compensation in many places. But Republican Connie Mack wanted to push government pay for construction workers down, lower than poverty level. A job that won't keep your family fed, clothed and safe in your home isn't a secure job. These eight members of Congress voted against the Mack Amendment and for the preservation of families' economic security.
On top of that, individual members of this set of 8 have acted in ways that show they support job security for Americans. Larry Kissell is a supporter of the 21st Century Buy American Act, a bill to provide incentives for businesses to keep manufacturing jobs in America. Heath Shuler is a member of the Buy American Caucus, a legislative group promoting the same sort of policies. Altmire, Arcuri, Etheridge, Kissell, Salazar, Shuler and Space all voted for the Lilly Ledbetter Act, a bill that made it illegal again to fire women from their jobs just because they're women. That's yet another bill promoting job security for Americans.
If policies that actually promote job security for Americans are not of interest to "Americans for Job Security," what could possibly be motivating those independent expenditures against these pro-job Democrats?
The latest conservative Cook Political Report, relied upon by Republican party consultants for strategy purposes, lists each of these incumbents as locked in a competitive race with a good chance for a Republican Party pickup. Before it delved into newly-legal independent expenditures in this election season, it turns out that Americans for Job Security had made illegal financial contributions to Republican Party candidates for 10 years. And guess who heads up Americans for Job Security? The former head of the New Hampshire Republican Party. That's who.
Does that answer the question for you?


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E.L. James' bestseller Fifty Shades of Grey speaks about women's secret longing to be sexually dominated by a powerful and controlling man. While I appreciate its message and worldwide appeal to women of all ages, I have some deep concerns. Many commentators appear to be assuming that this longing is in conflict with the political, legal and social gender equality that women have courageously achieved.
As a trained sex therapist, clinical psychologist and marriage counselor, I have dealt with intimate sexual connections for over four decades. I concur that the predominant sexual fantasy for many women is to be "taken" by sexy and powerful men who will, of course, ultimately fall deeply in love with them. Those fantasies can take many forms, but they are created within the minds of the women who have created the scripts, therefore they are inherently consensual.
After all, don't we encourage our young would-be princesses to adore their Snow Whites and Cinderellas from the time they are old enough to emulate them? The ultimate goal would naturally be to someday find their prince charming and be carted off to an unknown place, completely safe in the arms of their hero. I don't ever remember thinking that they would be in danger once the prince-rescuer took them over.
I never remember those rescued damsels-in-distress feeling forced to comply. They all seemed perfectly confident that their fate would be nothing but wonderful. More recent fairytale heroines, though still in dire circumstances until their rescuers arrive, are pretty feisty and don't seem in any way concerned that their momentary contract of submission to a male would endanger their power to influence their future relationship. Their heroes have changed somewhat as well; they seem more vulnerable and welcome the egalitarian and shared power that it takes to overcome their common enemy. Think Fiona and Mulan.
There are more and more public examples of shared consensual power between intimate partners as well. The new Duchess of Cambridge was able to get the British Parliament to overturn a three hundred-year-old-rule in England that gave automatic succession to the first boy child regardless if he had older sisters. If her first-born is a girl, she will be first in line for the throne. That's a pretty amazing real-life heroine, despite the fact that her position of power does not seem to in any way conflict with the comfort of being second to her husband in many other ways.
To imply that women's desires to be dominated by their men would be incompatible with the joyful accomplishments of higher education, satisfying careers and gender equality seems presumptuous to me, and I am distressed at how that is being played out in the media.
Consensual dominance/submission in intimate relationships, whichever gender assumes whichever role, has been part of the interaction between the sexes since the beginning of recorded history. In the past, Knighthood of the past often included sacrificing domination and power for the women they served. Princess Bride, the wonderful classic princess-over-servant-relationship and her submissive and agreeable slave's alternate role as the dreadful pirate is a superb example of a contractual dominance/submission role, where both are fully aware of what they are choosing and find comfort in either role.
The assumption that women's deep desire for dominance automatically places their fight for gender equality in question at all can be easily challenged by applying the same standard to male sexual fantasies and what they might imply were we to use the same standards. In my training as a sexual therapist, I was taught -- and later observed in hundreds of men -- that their most predominant sexual fantasy is watching two women making love. I don't believe anyone would immediately assume that men secretly want to be women or a passive observer. I don't believe that anyone would conclude that men are perhaps secretly tired of the responsibilities of hierarchal power and really wanted a more egalitarian, intimate relationship -- or that wanting that would make them seem less masculine.
Why are my female patients the only ones reading Fifty Shades of Grey? My male patients tell me they're really not interested in a woman's romantic sex novel. Why wouldn't more men want to know more about this deep hunger that women have, if their primary sexual fantasy was to play the male dominant role? If they wanted to play the counterpart to the dominance-desiring woman, why wouldn't they be as avid readers of these kinds of novels as women are?
Please understand that I am not taking sides here. My first understanding of the genders was primarily about men. I spent many hours as a child in my father's elite barber shop in Beverly Hills. Waiting for him to complete his workdays as "Barber to the Stars," I was privileged to sit quietly in a corner in the barber shop, seen but not known. I was also taken along when my father practiced his art on movie sets and in the privacy of powerful men's homes. I learned about these high-achieving men and what they found important, yet never formed the biases that many of my female friends had. I understood consensual and non-consensual contracts, and knew which one I wanted when I grew up.
The span of the years I've been married has covered the transition from I love Lucy to Desperate Housewives. The sexual revolution and the woman's movement, fought for elegantly by courageous and forward thinkers, only served to underscore what I already knew in my heart. There is a huge difference between consensual contracts and one-sided dominance, and both men and women often exchange roles in the former and have no say in the latter. True egalitarianism just means that both partners have more options to enjoy life when they help each other. I was never interested in accepting any role definition that had to remain fixed, no matter who it benefited or deprived.
Raising three would-be princesses who became successful and prominent strong women never seemed to be a conflict for me as a mother, or for them as women. They have shared with me that men who are comfortable with strong, self-defined women are harder to find, and that makes them sad at times. But they have also met men who welcome the sharing of power that also allows them to feel vulnerable without a loss of value. They want their men to stay confident and strong in the presence of their partner's own strength. Maybe that's where we should be searching for true answers in our own complex experiences, not accepting automatic assumptions.


text:
2nd Quarter 2003-Vol. 9 No. 2
Recent climate anomalies in Micronesia and in the central Pacific indicate that the moderate El Niño of 2002 has ended. Widespread drought tends to occur in Micronesia during the year after El Niño, and substantial rainfall deficits were expected throughout Micronesia during the first half of 2003. Although some of the atolls of Yap State, Chuuk State and the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI) have been quite dry, many islands have received adequate rainfall. Rainfall at Kosrae State and Pohnpei State, southern Chuuk State, and the Republic of Palau has been heavier and more frequent than expected. Thus, expected moderate drought conditions at these locations will not materialize with this current ENSO event. While we still expect some extended periods of dry weather throughout the region (even in equatorial areas), they will not be extensive enough to cause serious drought conditions before seasonal rains return. Continued conservation measures may still be needed for the northern Marshall Islands into June.
Residual warm ocean surface water in the equatorial region near the international date line has been associated with persistent deep convection in the southern RMI. Areas of deep convection have continued to form in Micronesia from Palau east to the RMI, giving those areas some periods of heavy rain showers. Two tropical cyclones, Tropical Storm Yanyan and Super Typhoon Kujira, affected parts of Micronesia in January and April, respectively. Throughout all of Micronesia, rainfall deficits from October 2002 through March 2003 have been nowhere near as large as in the same period during 1997-98. A suite of international computer forecasts of El Niño are in general consensus that El Niño conditions in the Pacific basin have ended, and the climate will remain El Niño neutral (a climate state that is neither El Niño nor its opposite, La Niña) for the next six to nine months. The following ENSO Forecast Forum was posted on the U.S. Climate Prediction Center web site on April 10, 2003:
Warm episode (El Niño) conditions continued
to weaken during March 2003, as the equatorial easterlies strengthened
and SST anomalies decreased throughout the eastern and central equatorial
Pacific. Since December, SST anomalies have decreased by more than 2°C
in the eastern equatorial Pacific between 130°W and the South American
coast. This decrease has resulted in near normal or slightly below normal
SSTs in the region east of 120°W since February. During the same period
there has also been a steady February. During the same period there has
also been a steady decrease in the magnitude and extent of the positive
subsurface temperature anomalies, indicating a depletion of the excess
warmth in the upper ocean of the equatorial Pacific. This evolution is
typical during the decay phases of warm episodes.
A comparison of the 2002-03 El Niño episode with previous events in the last 50 years indicates that for the equatorial Pacific as a whole the 2002-2003 event was moderate in intensity. The SST departures associated with the event were greatest in the central equatorial Pacific and least in the eastern equatorial Pacific. This pattern of anomalous warming, combined with the rapid weakening of the event, had a generally weaker than expected influence on the atmospheric circulation and hence the precipitation and temperature patterns over North and South America during January - March 2003 [As well as on the rainfall throughout Micronesia].
Consistent with current conditions and recent observed trends, a majority of the coupled model and statistical model forecasts indicate that near-normal conditions will prevail through September 2003.
El Niño conditions continued to weaken during March 2003 as sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies again decreased across the equatorial Pacific. SSTs remained more than 1°C above normal in the central Pacific between 170°E and 140°W, but were slightly cooler than normal east of 120°W. SST anomalies across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific have steadily decreased since reaching maximum values in late 2002. The SST remains near normal throughout most of Micronesia.
Consistent with weakening El Niño conditions,
the depth of the equatorial oceanic thermocline during March remained near
normal across the central Pacific and was slightly below normal in the
eastern Pacific. Ocean temperatures at thermocline depth (50-100 m) were
1-2°C above normal in the central equatorial Pacific and 2-4°C
below normal in the eastern Pacific. The temperature of the subsurface
ocean water is now substantially cooler since its peak warmth in December
2002. At peak warmth the subsurface water was generally at least
2ºC warmer than normal to a depth of about 150 meters in the equatorial
Pacific from 180° east to the coast of South America. Areas between
115°W to 95°W experienced warm anomalies of over 5°C warmer
than normal at depths of 50-100 meters. By March 2003, the area of
subsurface water temperature anomalies in excess of +2°C had contracted.
It was found at 50-100 meter depth at the equator in two small regions:
to the south-southeast of Hawaii, and to the south of Pohnpei. Subsurface
waters have become over 3°C colder than normal at 50-100 meter depth
between 95°W and 120°W. The subsurface water is also over
2°C colder than normal at 50-100 meter depth along the equator to the
south of Pohnpei and Chuuk States. The current distribution of SST
and subsurface water temperature anomalies indicate that El Niño
has ended.
During El Niño, the sea level falls throughout
most of Micronesia. During most El Niño events, the sea level
fall is approximately 0.5 meters below the non-El Niño high stands
of the sea. The sea level drops to its lowest magnitude at the end
of the El Niño year, and then rises quickly to above normal by May
or June of the following year. During the years 1999, 2000, and 2001,
the sea level was above normal in Micronesia. By December 2002, the
sea level throughout most of Micronesia fell to its minimum value.
In some places this was over 40 cm from its 1999 high point. The
greatest lowering of the sea level (20 cm below normal) was observed in
Palau and Yap. The sea level fell to nearly 10 cm below normal values
all the way east to the northern Marshall Islands. By February 2003,
the sea level had recovered to near normal levels throughout much of Micronesia
2). Lowered sea level during El Niño causes the water
level in shallow dug wells on atolls to fall, compounding the effects of
diminished rainfall. The sea level throughout Micronesia should recover
to near normal values by May 2003, and rise slightly above normal during
the second half of 2003.
The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has now averaged near -1.0 since May 2002. During May 2002 through January 2003, the SOI values were: May (-1.2), June (-0.7), July (-0.7), August (-1.6), September (-0.7), October (-0.7), November (-0.6), December (-1.4), January 2003 (-0.4), February (-1.2), and March (-1.0). Nearly all El Niño events are associated with a persistently negative SOI. When El Niño is over the SOI usually rises. The SOI should slowly rise for the next few months, and be near zero by June or July 2003.
During the first three months of 2003, there was one tropical cyclone in the western North Pacific that was numbered by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) in Hawaii. The Japan Meteorology Agency (JMA) named it Yanyan. Tropical Storm Yanyan formed near Pohnpei in mid-January and traveled toward Guam, giving the residents a scare so soon after the devastation wrought by Typhoon Pongsona in December 2002. During April 2003, a very powerful tropical cyclone, Super Typhoon Kujira formed near Pohnpei and tracked to the south of Guam. On Pohnpei, a young man died when high winds toppled a tree onto him. A few days before the passage of the cyclone, a boat capsized in rough seas resulting in a drowning death. Flooding in Kolonia from heavy rains was reported by residents to have been the worst in 60 years. After affecting Pohnpei, this typhoon moved westward passing first to the north of Chuuk and later to the south of Guam; these locations were largely spared any damaging effects.
During late December 2002 through April 2003, nine tropical cyclones affected the South Pacific: Zoe (06P), Ami (10P), Beni (12P), Cilla (13P), Dovi (15P), Erica (22P), Craig (24P), Eseta (25P) and Tropical Cyclone 27P. Zoe, with a peak intensity of 155 kts, was one of the most intense tropical cyclones ever observed in the South Pacific. Zoe struck some of the islands in the Solomons. Many were feared dead, especially on the two remote islands of Anuta and Tikopia. Satellite imagery suggested these islands felt the brunt of this powerful tropical cyclone. Despite massive damage to crops and homes, no one on these islands was badly hurt, having managed to shelter on high ground. In mid-January, Ami battered northern Fiji, bringing huge waves that smashed houses, destroyed crops and left two children missing and feared dead. Cyclone Ami moved across the top of Vanua Levu, the countrys second-biggest island, and the Lau group of 20 islands. In mid-February 2003, Dovi formed east of Samoa, and became one of the most intense tropical cyclones observed east of the international date line in many years. According to the JTWC, Dovi reached a peak intensity of 135 kts. In March three more tropical cyclones formed in the South Pacific Erica, Craig, and Eseta. Erica attained a very high intensity of 140 kts just as it crossed the island of New Caledonia where it caused millions of dollars in damages to infrastructure, killed two, and injured nearly a hundred. At the same time, Eseta formed to the east of Erica and passed to the south of Fiji with a peak intensity of 115 kts. In Nukualofa, Tongas disaster management office said two tourist resorts in the western district of Tongatapu were almost completely destroyed by Cyclone Eseta. Craig formed in the Gulf of Carpentaria and dissipated over land in the far northeast of Australia. In mid-April, another tropical cyclone (27P) moved south to the east of Fiji. A higher than average number of tropical cyclones in the South Pacific is typical from December through June of the year after El Niño. As in the western North Pacific, the effect of El Niño on tropical cyclones in the South Pacific is to allow more tropical cyclones to form farther east than normal.
Since 2000, the Laboratory for Atmospheric Research (LAR) at City University of Hong Kong (Professor Johnny C.L. Chan, Chair and Dean) has been issuing real-time predictions of the annual number of tropical cyclones affecting the western North Pacific and the South China Sea (http://aposf02.cityu.edu.hk/~mcg/staff/staff.htm). For predictions for the entire western North Pacific, different predictors give rather similar forecasts: it is unlikely that 2003 will see above-normal tropical cyclone activity over the entire western North Pacific. The final forecasts call for a normal to below normal number of tropical cyclones (two less than normal), as well as typhoons (one less than normal). Another group (http://Tropicalstormrisk.com), led by Dr. Mark Saunders at the Benfield Greig Hazard Research Centre, University College London has issued a prediction for a slightly more active season than normal in the western North Pacific with one more typhoon and one more intense typhoon than average. These two forecasts are actually in close agreement that the tropical cyclone activity in the western North Pacific during 2003 will be near normal.
State of Hawaii: The
trade winds, largely absent during March, prevailed over the Hawaiian Islands
during most of April. Several upper level lows helped destabilize the airmass
over the island chain during the first 2 weeks of the month with heavy
rains and thunderstorms observed on several islands.
The most significant rain event occurred on 10 April over eastern Maui when an upper level low helped produce thunderstorms over the eastern slopes of Haleakala on the island of Maui. Flash flooding in Kipahulu Gulch, described as a 6 ft surge of water, caused the deaths of 2 tourists as they crossed a stream. No significant damages were reported with this event.
A persistent upper level low also helped trigger heavy showers over Kauai and Oahu from 4 through 7 April. Advisories for minor flooding were issued for Oahu on 4, 6, and 7 April though no damages or injuries were reported.
Fresh to strong trade winds persisted over the state from 12 to 24 April bringing numerous showers to the eastern slopes of the Big Island. The heaviest rains occurred on 20 April with 2 to 4 inches recorded by gages in the Hilo and Puna areas. Flood advisories were issued for minor flooding but no significant damages or injuries were reported.
Kevin Kodama-Senior Service Hydrologist, NWSFO Honolulu, Hawaii
American Samoa: Rainfall at Pago Pago Airport for January, February, and March was 7.41 inches (59%), 9.11 inches (71%), and 10.41 inches (92%), respectively, amounting to 74% of normal for the 3-month period. Above normal rains occurred at American Samoa during October and November 2002. Since then, every month has had below normal rainfall.
Rainfall in American Samoa is not as closely tied to ENSO as it is in other regions of the Pacific. Some prolonged very dry periods at American Samoa have occurred in association with major El Niño events, and some prolonged very wet periods have occurred in years prior to major El Niño events; but on average there is not a consistent ENSO signal in the rainfall. There is a tendency for Samoa to experience prolonged dry periods in the years following intense El Niño events, such as 1997-98. Although December 2002 through March 2003 was persistently drier than normal, a prolonged period of very dry conditions is not expected in 2003. American Samoa has passed through its period of greatest tropical cyclone activity without being affected by any cyclone. For the remainder of 2003, the risk of a damaging tropical cyclone in American Samoa is very low.
Predicted rainfall for American Samoa from May 2003
through April 2004 is:
Guam/CNMI: Due in part to recent typhoons and low rainfall Guam features stubby and/or leafless wind-blasted trees and dry brown hillsides. There are many areas (especially in the south) where wildfires have scorched the terrain. Rainfall at Guam International Airport (GIA) during January, February, and March was 2.45 inches (43%), 3.13 inches (60%), and 5.40 inches (132%), respectively, amounting to 73% of normal for the 3-month period. High spatial variation of rainfall totals occurred across Guam. This was especially true during March when a small-scale convective rain event affected the airport (2.03 inches of rain fell on the 11th), but not other locations (only a trace was recorded at the University of Guam on the 11th). Andersen Air Force Base (AAFB) measured 4.94 inches (87%), 4.05 inches (78%), and 3.47 inches (85%), or 83% of the average rainfall for January-March. The rain gage network at the University of Guam was one of the driest places on the island during the first quarter of 2003 with 2.58 inches (58%), 3.35 inches (90%), and 1.60 inches (54%) during January, February, and March, respectively. On April 15, 2003, powerful Typhoon Kujira passed about 170 miles south of Guam bringing gusty winds and hazardous surf. The typhoon did not cause any significant damage on Guam. Southern sections of the island received some beneficial rains.
The first quarter 2003 rainfall at Saipan and Tinian was higher (in terms of percent of normal) than anywhere else in Micronesia (Figure 1b). The expected post-El Niño drought failed to materialize in the CNMI. Although it is the dry season in the CNMI, Saipan and Tinian boast lush healthy forests, and roadside grasses that are tall, thick, and green. Rainfall at the Saipan International Airport (SIA) for January, February and March was 5.52 inches (172%), 2.93 inches (122%), and 1.82 inches (91%), or 135% of the average for the period. As on Guam during the first quarter of 2003, there was wide variation in the rainfall from place to place. For example, Capitol Hills measured rainfall was much higher than the amount recorded at the airport with 10.86 inches (272%) in January, 4.74 inches (158%) in February, and 5.41 inches (216%) in September.
Rainfall amounts for January, February, and March at the Tinian Airport were 4.01 inches (100%), 5.51 inches (184%), and 6.69 inches (268%), respectively. The 3-month rainfall for Tinian Airport was well above normal at 171%. As on Saipan, Tinian forests and grasslands appear as if well-watered. At Rota Airport, January, February and March rain amounts were 6.29 inches (119%), 5.40 inches (116%), and 1.92 inches (52%), respectively. This gave a 3-month average of 100%. Parts of the western half of Rota still show effects of the wind blasting from Typhoon Pongsona in December 2002.
The very dry conditions that follow an El Niño year tend to start in November and carry 4-7 months into the following year. With an El Niño event in 2002, it was expected that Guam and the CNMI would have a substantial reduction of rainfall from November 2002 through June 2003. This has not materialized. The fall 2002 rainfall on Guam and in the CNMI was drier than normal in October and November, but the rains from Typhoon Pongsona pushed the December totals above normal. Guam has been somewhat dry through March 2003, but the CNMI has been relatively wet. While the rainfall during May-July 2003 could still fall a bit below normal, no major impacts of dry weather (wildfires, desiccation of grasslands, and problematic draw down of surface water supplies) are anticipated. The threat of typhoons for Guam and the CNMI should be normal during 2003. Approximately four tropical cyclones should brush past Guam and Saipan within 200 miles, but a direct hit by an intense typhoon is unlikely.
Predicted rainfall for the Mariana Islands from May
2003 through April 2004 is as follows:
|Guam/Rota Saipan/Tinian
|85% 85%
|95% 95%
|90% 90%
Yap State: Stations on the main island of Yap and on the atolls of Yap State all began to experience persistent dryness from November 2002 through February 2003. Then, many stations were wetter than normal in March. The Weather Service Office near the Yap Airport recorded 5.98 inches (82%) in January, 1.69 inches (28%) in February, and 7.63 inches (128%) in March, or 79% of normal rainfall for the three months. Rainfall amounts on Ulithi were 2.50 inches (40%) in January, 1.02 inches (20%) in February, and 6.36 inches (125%) in March, or 60% for the 3-month period. Farther south at Woleai Atoll (which is normally wetter than Yap and Ulithi year-round), persistent dryness has occurred from October 2002 through March 2003. The rainfall was 3.90 inches (37%) in January, 4.60 inches (61%) in February, and 1.35 inches (16%) in March, for a 3-month average of 37%.
El Niño years at Yap average slightly wetter than normal for the first nine months, then dryness begins in the fall. This has occurred. The very dry conditions that follow an El Niño year tend to start in November and carry into the following year. The persistent dryness that set in late in the El Niño year 2002 continued at most Yap stations through at least February 2003. Wet weather returned to many locations in March. While the rainfall during May-July 2003 could still fall a bit below normal, no major impacts of dry weather (wildfires, desiccation of grasslands, and problematic draw down of surface water supplies) are anticipated. Super Typhoon Kujira passed well to the north of Yap in mid-April. The tropical cyclone threat at Yap should be normal in 2003.
Predicted rainfall for Yap State from March 2003 through
April 2004 is as follows:
Chuuk State: Rainfall at islands and atolls in the southern part of Chuuk State has been heavier and more frequent than expected. However, some of the atolls in the north experienced a prolonged modest reduction of rainfall that began in October 2002 and persisted through March 2003. A moderate and persistent reduction of rainfall may still occur in the northern portions of Chuuk State until July, after which the rainfall at all locations in Chuuk State is expected to return to near normal. During January, February, and March, the Weather Service Office at Weno Island measured 10.06 inches (94%), 4.72 inches (76%), and 7.95 inches (95%). This amounted to 90% of normal rainfall for the 3-month period. At Lukunoch, rainfall for January, February, and March was 5.60 inches (52%), 5.06 inches (82%), and 8.79 inches (105%) for the respective months. This amounted to 77% of normal for the 3-month period. At Polowat in the western atolls, it was slighlty drier than at Weno. The rainfall for January, February, and March at Polowat was 6.36 inches (80%), 5.86 inches (94%), and 4.15 inches (66%), or 80% of normal for the 3-month period.
Two tropical cyclones affected Chuuk State in the first four months of 2003: the tropical disturbance that became Tropical Storm Yanyan in January, and Typhoon Kujira in April. Yanyan was only a tropical disturbance when it passed through Chuuk State and provided some beneficial rains. Typhoon Kujira passed to the north and did not have any major impacts. The threat from tropical cyclones for Chuuk State in 2003 should be near normal.
Predictions for Chuuk State from May 2003 through
April 2004 are as follows:
Pohnpei State: Rainfall at Pohnpei State has been heavier and more frequent than expected. Thus, expected moderate drought conditions did not materialize with this current ENSO event. With the notable exception of Kapingamarangi, the islands and atolls of Pohnpei State experienced slightly drier than normal conditions during most of the months from October 2002 through March 2003. At the Weather Service Office at Kolonia, the January, February, and March rainfall totals were 10.71 inches (82%), 7.90 inches (73%), and 16.25 inches (120%), respectively. This amounted to a 3-month total of 34.86 inches or 93% of average precipitation. At Pingelap, observed rainfall in January, February, and March was 18.52 inches (150%), 6.68 inches (55%), and 8.06 inches (56%), respectively, for a 3-month amount of 85%. At Nukuoro, January through March precipitation amounts were 4.47 inches (38%), 6.07 inches (58%), and 18.89 inches (139%), respectively, for a 3-month amount of 82%. Kapingamarangi picked up a substantial amount of rain during January through March with totals of 14.57 inches (101%), 14.80 inches (144%), and 14.87 inches (107%) for the three months. Convection along the equator and enhanced monsoonal westerlies have kept Kapingamarangi in rainfall surpluses for almost every month since April 2001. During the first quarter of 2003 the highest measured rainfall total at any station in Pohnpei State (and at any recording station in all of Micronesia) was the 44.24 inches measured at Kapingamarangi.
Tropical cyclones and several tropical disturbances that later became named tropical cyclones affected Pohnpei State through most of 2002 and again in January 2003 when an area of disturbed weather associated with the developing Tropical Storm Yanyan affected portions of Pohnpei State. Further, in April 2003 the developing Super Typhoon Kujira passed close to Pohnpei and caused very heavy rainfall (when still a tropical storm). Flooding in Kolonia from heavy rains was reported by residents to have been the worst in 60 years. A young man died when high winds toppled a tree onto him, and a few days before the passage of the cyclone, a boat capsized in rough seas resulting in a drowning death. Despite an early start to tropical cyclone activity in Pohnpei, the threat of tropical cyclones should be normal for the rest of 2003.
Predicted rainfall for Pohnpei State from May 2003 through
April 2004 is as follows:
|Pohnpei Islands and Atolls Kapingamarangi
|85% 80%
|95% 80%
|90% 75%
Kosrae State: Rainfall stations on Kosrae experienced a small decrease in rainfall totals during the first quarter of 2003, but expected moderate drought conditions did not materialize with this current ENSO event. Rainfall at Kosrae (SAWRS) during January, February, and March was 17.78 inches (123%), 9.33 inches (57%), and 15.13 inches (81%) respectively. The 3-month total of 42.24 inches was 85% of the normal total of 49.41 inches. The three other Kosrae stations (Tofol, Tafunsak, and Utwa) were drier than SAWRS, with 3-month totals of 37.69 inches (76%), 33.37 inches (68%), and 33.62 inches (68%), respectively.
Rainfall for Kosrae State is expected to be near normal for the remainder of 2003 with the possibility of some limited periods of dry weather through July that will not be extensive enough to cause any problems. The threat posed by tropical cyclones to Kosrae will be normal during 2003.
Predicted rainfall for Kosrae State from May 2003 through
April 2004 is as follows:
Republic of Palau: Conditions at Palau (which were drier than normal at most locations for most of the second half of 2002), were wetter than anticipated during the first quarter of 2003. Rainfall at the Weather Service Office at Koror during January, February and March was 8.88 inches (83%), 13.48 inches (148%), and 7.65 inches (93%), respectively. The 3-month average was 107% of normal. The monthly rainfall distribution at Nekken Forestry was slightly wetter overall than at the Weather Service Office in Koror with 10.40 inches (97%) in January, 10.67 inches (117%) in February, and 10.68 inches (130%) in March. Farther south at Peleliu, it was drier, and rainfall totals for January-March were 7.18 inches (67%), 10.10 inches (112%), and 7.19 inches (88%) respectively.
Dry conditions associated with El Niño tend to set it in as early as September of the El Niño year and carry into the summer of the following year. In keeping with El Niño in 2002, the first half of 2002 was generally drier than normal. But dry conditions did not persist into 2003. Rainfall for Palau is expected to be near normal for the remainder of 2003 with the possibility of some limited periods of dry weather through July that will not be extensive enough to cause any problems.
Two tropical cyclones formed in Micronesia in the first three months of 2003, and passed well to the northeast of Palau: Tropical Storm Yanyan in January and Super Typhoon Kujira in April. Neither of these tropical cyclones had any major effect on Palau. The threat from tropical cyclones will be normal for 2003.
Predicted rainfall for Palau from May 2003 through April
2004 is as follows:
Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI): Although some of the atolls of the RMI have been quite dry (especially in the north), many islands have received adequate rainfall. After abundant rainfall during most of 2002 in the central and southern RMI, the first quarter of 2003 was near normal. Only in northern atolls, such as Kwajalein, Wotje, and Utirik did dry conditions set in late in 2002, and continue into 2003. The Majuro weather station measured 8.62 inches (102%), 9.95 inches (162%), and 1.47 inches (18%) during January, February and March. The very low March total at the Majuro WSO may be an incomplete record. The March total for Laura on the west side of Majuro Atoll was similar at 1.66 inches (20%). For the 3-month period, the average for Majuro was 88% of normal. Rainfall at Kwajalein (and nearby Ebeye) was 2.75 inches (60%) in January, 2.36 inches (73%) in February, and 2.08 inches (51%) in March, for a three month average of 60%. Other atolls in the northern part of the RMI such as Wotje and Jaluit reported very dry totals of 8.55 inches (37%) and 2.79 inches (25%) for the first quarter of 2003.
After weak or moderate El Niño events (such as 2002), the rainfall at Majuro, Kwajalein and the northern islands of the RMI tends to be below normal, but at atolls south of 6°N it remains near normal. The northern atolls of the RMI are one of the few regions in Micronesia where some extended periods of dry weather are expected. Still, they will not be extensive enough to cause serious drought conditions before seasonal rains return. Continued conservation measures may still be needed for the northern Marshall Islands into June.
During 2002, tropical cyclone activity shifted east of normal in the western North Pacific basin, and westerly winds pushed as far east as the central and southern Marshall Islands. Many tropical disturbances moved through the RMI, some of which later moved west and became named tropical cyclones. During 2003, the monsoon trough should return to its normal location, easterly winds should prevail in the Marshall Islands, and the tropical cyclone threat for the RMI should be low.
Predicted rainfall for the RMI from May 2003 through April
2004 is as follows:
|S. of 6°N 6°N to 8°N N. of 8°N
|75% 75% 50%
|95% 95% 90%
|90% 95% 85%
Long-Lead Outlook for Hawaiian Islands issue dated 17 April 2003, from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC).
ENSO ADVISORY: issued by Climate Prediction Center/NCEP on April 10, 2003
Warm episode (El Niño) conditions continued to weaken during March 2003, as the equatorial easterlies strengthened and SST anomalies decreased throughout the eastern and central equatorial Pacific. Since December, SST anomalies have decreased by more than 2°C in the eastern equatorial Pacific between 130°W and the South American coast. This decrease has resulted in near normal or slightly below normal SSTs in the region east of 120°W since February. During the same period there has also been a steady decrease in the magnitude and extent of the positive subsurface temperature anomalies, indicating a depletion of the excess warmth in the upper ocean of the equatorial Pacific. This evolution is typical during the decay phases of warm episodes.
In spite of these trends, significant positive SST anomalies remained in the central equatorial Pacific during March 2003, with anomalies greater than +1°C extending from 170°E to 140°W. Greater-than-average precipitation and cloudiness were found over the western portion of this region, although the departures from average and the spatial coverage have decreased substantially during the last two months. The Tahiti-Darwin SOI remained negative (-1.0) for the 13th consecutive month, while the equatorial SOI was near zero.
A comparison of the 2002-03 El Niño episode with previous events in the last 50 years indicates that for the equatorial Pacific as a whole the 2002-2003 event was moderate in intensity. The SST departures associated with the event were greatest in the central equatorial Pacific (Niño 4 and Niño 3.4 regions) and least in the eastern equatorial Pacific (e.g., Niño 3 and especially Niño 1+2). This pattern of anomalous warming, combined with the rapid weakening of the event, had a generally weaker than expected influence on the atmospheric circulation and hence the precipitation and temperature patterns over North and South America during January - March 2003.
Consistent with current conditions and recent observed
trends, a majority of the coupled model and statistical model forecasts
indicate that near-normal conditions will prevail through September 2003.
However, there is uncertainty in this forecast as some forecasts indicate
the possibility of continued weak El Niño conditions while others
indicate the development of La Niña conditions during the second
half of 2003.
SPECIAL SECTION-Markov Model for Pacific SST and sea level
These are the latest results of a CPC model being produced by Dr. Yan Xue. Forecasts of the tropical Pacific SST and sea level anomalies are presented here using a linear statistical model (Markov model). The Markov model is constructed in a reduced multivariate EOF space of observed SST and sea level analysis using the methodology of Xue et al 2000. The model is trained for the 1981-1998 period.
The SST is the NCEP SST analysis and the sea level is from the NCEP ocean analysis. All the data are monthly values averaged in grid boxes of 6 degrees in longitude and 2 degrees in latitude, and cover the tropical Pacific region within 19 degrees of the equator.
Forecast SST Anomaly (Degree, 3-Mon. Average)
Forecast Sea Level Anomaly (cm, 3-Mon. Average)
The full suite of Dr. Xue's model results are updated monthly and is
available at:
SPECIAL SECTION-Experimental Forecasts for Pacific Island Rainfall
The latest results from the CPC statistical
model for all predicted locations are shown below. This map-like
presentation applies only to two particular seasons (June - August 2003
and September - November 2003) of the 13 three month periods out to a year
in advance that are available from the model. The full time series
in graphs and tables are updated monthly on the internet at:
Negative numbers are forecasts for less than normal rainfall while positive numbers are forecasts for greater than normal rainfall. The size of the number (not the value of the number) indicates how accurate the forecast is expected to be, on the average, for the station at the given time of year and the forecast lead time. There are three sizes: the smallest size indicates low skill, the medium size indicates moderate skill, and the largest size indicates a relatively high skill. The value of the numbers tell how large a deviation from normal is expected. These values are in standardized units that indicate how typical (or atypical) the rainfall conditions are expected to be relative to the stations normal climatology. For example, numbers from 0 to 25 (or 0 to -25) are small deviations, indicating conditions that would be considered typical of the climate for the station and the time of year. Deviations from 25 to 60 (or -25 to -60) are moderate deviations, indicating somewhat wetter (or drier) conditions than would be expected for the station and the time of year. Deviations of over 60 (or less than -60) are large deviations, indicating much wetter (or drier) conditions than normal for that location and time of year.
Sites Covered:
(list not complete, selected sites only)
1. Hawaii: Hilo, Kahului, Honolulu, Lihue
2. Guam: Anderson AFB, Guam WSFO
3. Johnston Island
4. Koror WSO, Palau
5. Kwajalein Atoll
6. Majuro WSO, Marshall Is.
7. FSM: Pohnpei WSO, Yap WSO, Chuuk WSO
8. Wake Island
9. Henderson, Solomon Islands
10. Luganville, Vanuatu
11. New Caledonia: Koumac, Noumea
12. Funafuti, Tuvalu
13. Fiji: Rotuma, Undu Point, Nadi
14. Hihifo, Wallis & Futuna
15. Tonga: Niuatoputapu, Vavau
16. Rarotonga, Cook Islands
17. French Polynesia: Atnona, Bora Bora, Papeete, Takaroa, Rikitea, Tubai, Rapa
The information contained in the LOCAL VARIABILITY SUMMARIES section and elsewhere in this issue of the Pacific ENSO Update has been drawn from many sources. Further information may be obtained by contacting your local National Weather Service office, or the individuals and institutions listed below:
NOAA National Weather Service-National Centers for Environmental Prediction
World Weather Building, Washington D.C. 20233
Contact CPC at 301-763-8155 for more information on the ENSO Advisory, the Long-Lead Outlook for the Hawaiian Islands, and other publications discussed in this bulletin.
NOAA National Weather Service-Pacific Region
University of Hawaii at Manoa
HIG #225, 2525 Correa Rd.
Honolulu, HI 96822
Contact the WSFO at 808-973-5270 for more information on NWS-PR sources of climate information.
University of GUAM (UOG) WATER AND ENERGY RESEARCH INSTITUE (WERI):
Lower campus, University of Guam
UOG Station, Mangilao, Guam 96923
Contact M. Lander at 671-735-2685 for information on tropical cyclones and climate in the Pacific Islands.
NOAA National Weather Service-Pacific Region
3232 Hueneme Road, Barrigada, Guam, 96913
Contact C. Guard at 641-472-0900 for further information on tropical cyclones and climate in the Pacific Islands.
University of Hawaii at Manoa
School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology (SOEST)
Department of Meteorology
HIG #350, 2525 Correa Rd.
Honolulu, HI 96822
Contact Dr. T. Schroeder at 808-956-7476 for more information on hurricanes and climate in Hawaii.
University of Hawaii at Manoa
School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology (SOEST)
Department of Meteorology
HIG #350, 2525 Correa Rd.
Honolulu, HI 96822
Contact R. Schneider at 808-956-2324 for more information on ENSO-related climate data for the Pacific Islands.
Contact C. Anderson at 808-956-3908 for more information on Pacific ENSO Update and applications.
For further information, please contact:
Rebecca Schneider
Editor, Pacific ENSO Update,
Pacific ENSO Applications Center
c/o Dept. of Meteorology, HIG Room 350
University of Hawaii - Manoa Campus
2525 Correa Road - Honolulu, HI 96822
Tel: 808-956-2324 Fax: 808-956-2877
E-mail: firstname.lastname@example.com
Publication of the Pacific ENSO Update is supported in part by
the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA),
National Weather Service-Pacific Region Headquartersunder contract
no. AB133W-02-SE-056. The views expressed herein are those of the
author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of NOAA,
any of its sub-agencies, or cooperating organizations.
to Pacific ENSO Update - Home Page


text:
Dr. Shreya Kangovi is an internist, pediatrician and health policy researcher who studies patient perspectives on socioeconomic determinants of health and health care utilization, and the efficacy of community health workers in modifying these determinants.
Dr. Kangovi has published numerous studies in peer-reviewed publications, such as Health Affairs, exploring the perspective of patients of low socioeconomic status on health. These studies have elucidated possible mechanisms for patient preference of hospital (rather than primary) care, the effect of unrealistic goal-setting on health outcomes and the unmet need for empathic health care personnel such as community health workers (CHWs).
Dr. Kangovi led the community-engaged research working group that developed IMPaCT (Individualized Management towards Patient-Centered Targets). IMPaCT is a novel intervention in which CHWs provide structured support designed to help patients set and achieve patient driven health goals. She has conducted randomized, controlled trials demonstrating that IMPaCT improves a variety of outcomes including access to primary care, patient activation, mental health, quality of communication and recurrent hospital readmission. Based on Dr. Kangovi's work, the University of Pennsylvania Health System has created the Penn Center for Community Health Workers, a community-academic hospital partnership designed to support CHW implementation and research.


text: I'm trying to install Debian to a SyJet SCSI drive. The SyJet is attached to a APA-1460 A PCMCIA SCSI adapter. I'd like to install from a cdrom attached to the same controller. I'm hopefull that this is possible considering section 5.3 of the PCMCIA HOWTO indicating that it's possible to boot a Linux root partition on a PCMCIA drive. I'm know that I'd have to create a custom installation disk but am unfamilure with the debian installation disk makeup. Any help would be much appreciated. Please respond to me directly as I'm not subscribed to this list. Thanks in advance Dan.............. -- To UNSUBSCRIBE, email to firstname.lastname@example.com with a subject of "unsubscribe". Trouble? Contact email@example.com


text:
In case you haven't noticed it's been a little quiet over here since last year. My facebook, twitter, and instagram accounts have all been updated to reflect the change, but I have moved my blogging over to Lane's Latest Dish. For the time being I plan on keeping Supper for a Steal around because it is packed full of recipes and I love going back and making some dishes that I haven't made in … [Read more...]
Harvest Kale Salad for Friendsgiving
All Photos by Caroline & Evan Photography A few months ago my friend Nichole approached me about participating in a "Friendsgiving" she was organizing. Since I like Thanksgiving as much as the next person, I couldn't resist. I mean just take a look at the menu below. Could anyone say no to those Thanksgiving dishes? So a few of us local Tampa/Orlando bloggers gathered to celebrate the … [Read more...]
Pizza Pasta Salad
Last night, the hubs and I escaped for a little date night at Whole Foods for a blogger exclusive wine tasting. This is the second one our new Whole Foods has put on and they are always so much fun. At the last one I discovered that King Rabbit Malbec in the background of the photo below and from this one, the Squadra Bianco, which would make an amazing wine to take on a picnic with this … [Read more...]
Zucchini Parmesan
I promised this recipe on Instagram (<<go follow me if you aren't already. I made a new account recently) last week and would you look at that, I'm actually delivering. Reading back through my blog posts from earlier this year. I vowed to blog more... well, that didn't happen. I really want to. It seems like a combination of no inspiration and no time. Both of which I'm trying to problem … [Read more...]
Hadley's 1st Birthday
So the last monthly update I posted was 9 months, clearly I'm a little behind, because this weekend we celebrated Hadley's first birthday! The theme was Under the Sea/Little Mermaid with lots of purple and aqua. I had fun crafting during nap time in the weeks leading up to the party. We kept the food simple, Jimmy John's subs, pasta salad, watermelon and goldfish. It … [Read more...]
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text:
Canisius is the only 40-win team in Division I, without an invitation to the NCAA Baseball Tournament this year.
The 64-team field came out this afternoon. Canisius, after losing back-to-back games to Siena in the MAAC Championship Series Sunday, did not get a spot.
The Griffs finish the season with a 40-16 record – the second year in a row they have topped the 40-win mark.


text:
2009 Nissan Sentra - Consumer Review
Build Quality
Reliability Value
Build Quality
Reliability Value
4 of 4 people found this review helpful
Best little car I've ever owned
By Mac88 on
Vehicle2009 Nissan Sentra FE+ 2.0 S 4dr Sedan (2.0L 4cyl CVT)
ReviewBought this car with the idea to save money in the future to counter possible rising gas prices, and I was surprised at the design and overall quality. The CVT tranny is a little weird at first, but it's a great performer. Some may say it's boring, but if you just want to drive and not worry about shifting or rpm's then this is the one. Torque right off the bat is good, you can feel it in the seats, once car is at the speed you want, rpm goes down low, and it's quiet, surprisingly quiet on the freeway for a small car. Small on the outside, roomy on the inside. Big trunk, good styling, and fairly wide. It's comfortable enough for my commute, AC kicks butt, a real quality motor, quiet at idle.
Best FeaturesStrong 2 liter motor, not too hard, comfortable seats, good quality mechanically, good styling, smooth cvt transmission, great MPG I'm getting 30+ combined.
Worst FeaturesBetter radio, tires need to be a bit bigger/wider, can't pop trunk with standard key fob, a bit too much chrome in rear tail lights (I'm replacing with all red LED style anyway)
Recommend (4) (0)
Are you the author of this review?Update Your Review
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text:
The Strangest Secret – Earl Nightingale
Earl Nightingale, known as the "Dean of Personal Development" made a recording in 1950 and talks about the strangest secret in the world; the key to success and the key to failure…
Definition of success – "Success is the progressive realization of a worthy ideal."
"We become what we think about most of the time."
Listening to this recording daily for at least 30 days can be one of the most important things that a person can do if they want to be successful at their chosen field of endeavor or life in general.
The keys mentioned in this recording can change a person's life immediately.
"Every one of us is the sum total of his own thoughts."
"You are guided by your mind."
"…Ask, and it shall be given you; seek, and ye shall find; knock, and it shall be opened." Luke 11:9
Sit back, relax, listen and open your mind.
If you have enjoyed viewing this video on my blog, please let me know what you liked best about it & what true value you have found. Then, please leave a comment & you are encouraged to share this video with as many other people as possible. I thank you so much! Tim Carney
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text:
Puppy: Diesel
Friends: 0
Member Since: March 13, 2015Add to Friends
My name is Diesel I am four months old and full of energy, I love to go on walks,play fetch with my parents and run around the house. I also really love the snow and I act silly in it. My favorite treat is anything you give me. I am very loving and loyal to my parents and I love themView Profile


text: FYI, i've checked in some new code which understands PCI IDE controllers, and knows how to attach 'wdc's to them. (I believe it was 'shipped' in last night's FTP server update, but that croaked towards the end, so i don't know if you can get the bits easily right now.) Right now, the code only works on the i386 (because handling of compatibility IRQ setup requires MD bits), but it should be pretty easy to make it work on other architectures. Depending on how IDE compatibility-mode IRQs are glued into those systems, it may make sense to change the interfaces a bit; i'm flexible. "Somebody implement the right bits for other platforms." 8-) It doesn't do anything particularly interesting (e.g. DMA support) yet, but it's a place for people interested in working on PCI IDE DMA support to start. It does imply support for Native-PCI mode PCI IDE controllers, which weren't previously supported (or were only supported by people doing gross hacks in their kernel config files, to hard-code the addresses of the Native-PCI mode IDE channels). Anyway, if you want to enable support for it in your kernel, add lines like: pciide* at pci? dev ? function ? wdc* at pciide? channel ? (Note that if you've hard-wired your 'wd' units to specific 'wdc' devices in your config file, the wdc unit numbers will change!) If you're using a system that reports a PCI IDE controller at boot time, i'd appreciate it if you could try this out and send me 'dmesg' output. (If you've got a CMD Tech. PCI IDE controller, that appreciation is at least doubled.) Please test this; unless people run into problems, it's going into the GENERIC and INSTALL kernel configs "soon-ish" (where that's probably "the next time I remember to do it, after at least one week has passed" 8-). chris