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In a few hours, and after a week of wait, we will finally get the presidential results. There are two presidential candidates that are so close in terms of votes that it makes half of the country hostile to whomever is coming. The two dueling camps both now have their own spots for massive protests, after having the Shafiq supporters move their protest spot to Nasr City. The imagery on TV, presenting the dueling protests, were something that occupied the entire night capturing in live video imagery how divided this country is at the moment. The situation in Egypt has turned hilariously complex, to the point that if you detach yourself completely from the fight, You will be able to see the fascinating design that's taking shape, and what the very near future holds for us.
First of all, we should admit that this is a very strange elections in terms of the reasoning behind the opposing camps, especially that they seem to be fueled by hate more than any other emotion: The Shafiq supporters hate the MB whom they believe are co-opting and using the "naively idealistic revolutionaries" for their own gains, and the Revolutionaries hate the Shafiq-Supporters or the fellol amongst them, to the point that they are willing to sacrifise anything to ensure they don't reach power again, with the MB to gain from this. Their motivations are different: The Shafiqistas truly believe that they are actively trying to save Egypt, or their civil vision of it, from the almost totally ruining change in the country and society that will befall it if Mb wins, while the Revolutionaries truly believe that they are actively trying to save their revolution, whom they believe is what's going to be in Egypt's best interest on the long term. Their motivations are based on the concept of "Save what can be saved", since the revolutionaries are trying to save the revolution's and the country's fig leaf with ensuring that the old regime candidate doesn't win, while the Shafiqista are trying to save what's remaining of their Egypt after the "security failure" and "economic ruin" have completely messed up their way of life, and they are not willing to have their society changing against them permanently as well, hence the Shafiq Slogan "Egypt is for all Egyptians". They want to ensure and secure their place legitimately in the country, and they should also have a say in what's going on, or else it's not really a democracy. The Shafiqista's are playing democracy, ladies and gentlemen. They are even protesting now in massive numbers. How things have changed. 🙂
But the interesting thing in all of this, with Tahrir being mainly MB, and Nasr City being mainly Shafiq supporters (Fellol, kanaba and general anti-MB individuals), the supreme majority of the revolutionaries sat home, for the first time, on their couches, and watched protesters protesting in the streets, and the country being divided in a fight that they are not uniformly invested in. It's our turn to watch and freak out and analyze, and have the time to actually see what insanity gets spewed over our fantastic Media. The Media's coverage of the elections is such a circus, that they are, in my opinion, hands down the only real winner in this election. And the worst part, they never actually tell you anything. You are simply watching verbal duels, and may the best-spoken win. Political entertainment and Theatre, in a surprisingly advanced way. It's excellent. But all for nothing: It's clearly obvious that Morsy will win the presidency. It's the easiest route to resolve the situation, as long as they negotiate their deal's arrangement with the MB, which they have been doing this whole past week. Feels awesome that our presidential election results are being negotiated. YAY democracy. YAY Voting.
But the crowning of Morsy for President will lead to the appearance that the MB have won the Game, and SCAF made the rules of the game, so how could they lose it by Morsy winning? Why would they do that?
Well, because whomever the next President is, his first term will only last 6 -9 months, by law. You see, SCAF will write the constitution, and will do one that will be appealing to most people, and then call a referendum on it, and the moment that happens, they will hold the parliamentary elections and then redo the presidential elections as well, which Morsy is not going to win it. Why? Well, because we have a very impatient population that wants quick improvements and Morsy will be screwed because of the horrifyingly bad economic situation that will take place in Egypt in those few coming months, and not only because of the world economic situation or Egypt's economy, but mainly thanks to the Ganzoury budget. This is the Budget that Kamal Ganzoury made for the coming government and will be approved by SCAF, as the legislative e branch of the government before Morsy takes power and swears the oath on the 30th. Before that ceremony, he is not the president, and SCAF still is. What will that Budget entail? Well, after spending his year as PM spending like a drunken sailor up to 130% of the budget (and depleted many reserves), Ganzoury has probably assembled what appears to be an excellent budget, with all the figures balancing and a lesser deficit, but mainly due to cutting off a good chunk of fuel subsidies. Rumors are that it's estimated to jump at least 50% in price the moment Morsy steps into office in July. Can you imagine what will happen? The protests? The precious and stingy way people will treat their gas? The less traffic due to the notion that no one wants to go anywhere unless they will really have to, and thus less social life? The increased price of transportation for people without cars? The increased price of goods due to the increased price of transportation? Fun Times ahead, folks. A fun year certainly.
Morsy knows that all of the unrest and unhappiness that such a budget would have a serious influence on his chances of re-elections or the Muslim Brotherhood in parliamentary elections, which is why he is trying to appoint a Prime Minister that is not Muslim Brotherhood, but rather a non-MB civilian accepted by most to take the blame for the government's future economic failure. And, quite naturally, they offered it to Baradei , because he is our #1 choice for replacement leaders in times of crisis. Amazingly, he is the almost always available option when someone in the revolution's camp gets stuck with the question of "who should we bring for this most unpleasant situation? Baradei, of course. Call him". Well, if you love Baradei, you should hope he doesn't accept that post, or else he would be set-up to take the blame for the bad economy set-up taking place. The problem for us as revolutionaries would be that given that Morsy is the revolution's candidate, then he would be the second time that the choice presented by the revolutionaries to lead was "a failure for the economy", the first being Essam Sharaf. We will never get taken seriously after that,, and we will be blamed for all of Morsy's messes. He is the revolution's candidate, according to some people. Also, please anticipate the emergence of the new Elite, made up for very rich MB families, and how they will start flaunting it now. Their business aristocracy will start showing immediately, with magazines wanting us to get to know the Morsy offspring and the Shater Kids. The Shater Family on Enigma's cover. Imagine.
If Shafiq ends up winning, then the SCAF truly is playing with fire, since the MB will start causing unrest, and with them many revolutionaries and the bad economic situation will raise the heat on both SCAF and Shafiq, and makes it impossible for him to get re-elections, and it would revitalize the MB in popularity. Why would they do that? Already they have proven that the Islamists aren't the majority of the country, and that Morsy can't do it without the revolutionaries voting for him. If you noticed, Morsy rhetoric stopped being religious or islamist, and more revolutionary. Sharia is no longer selling politically, with the population. If it did, they would've used it, but they are also aware that the way they used to get votes or support will not work for a while. Political Islam is changing, and its practitioners no longer have their Halo's in the eyes of the public. The next parliamentary elections will not have Islamists winning the majority, at all, either way. The Game has changed.
This next phase is going to be a doozy. Save your money, people. You are going to need it.
49 Comments on The Game
The SCAF might just be willing to play with fire and bring in Shafeek. The military presence and early going home time for the whole country is not a good sign. They are so pissed off at the MB that they might cut their nose to spite their face. The SCAF. Has proven to be cunning And stupid, which is a dangerous combo. The day is still young, they might even redo some of the elections causing more tension and opening the door for more chances to make SHAFEEK win. The day is young and the magicians hat is still full of crap!Reply
I think you have a degree of understanding of events but they are so clouded by your arrogance that your analysis is incorrect.
You would like us to accept that "the supreme majority of the revolutionaries sat home". And that the results were "so close in terms of votes that it makes half of the country hostile to whomever is coming"
However in reality Shafik never really garnered 50% of the votes. We all know that is forged and to the last minute Scaf could have declared the result whatever way they wanted. He could probably count on 25-30% on a good day!!! Similarly they obviously tampered with the Morsi figure. Giving 50% to him would imply it was much higher in reality (maybe 60%).
We are all being forced to accept the results flawed as they are because the alternative is worse. The MB quite rightly will negotiate and back down and look to the long term. Even if Shafik represent 25% only theu are an imortant minority and include many christians. There must be an olive branch offered. That is for their good (the MB) and the good of the country I believe. God won't change our condition until we change the petty hatreds in our own souls.
However you appear to be accepting the results to make your next point that the real revolutionaries are sitting this out.
In a stroke you can dismiss all the votes for Mursi from salafis, MB's, AF, Middle of the road Muslims, liberals who see it as preferable to Shafik and moderate muslims and christians. Whatever way you look at it they form the largest single bloc of those supporting change in Egypt. And even by SCAFs fake presidential election figures they are 50%. What arrogance allows you to then claim the majority of egypptians supporting change are against a morsi presidency. It is simply not true statistically.
So then we get your conclusion, not analysis but prediction.Reply
"Sharia is no longer selling politically, with the population.The next parliamentary elections will not have Islamists winning the majority, at all, either way."
But the facts haven't really indicated that at all….
This analysis has one major flaw. The MB are not stupid and understand what is going on exactly as Sandmonkey does. They will force SCAF to share power with them by holding up the specter of internal unrest. They will insist on the right of parliament to decide on a new budget and they of course will oppose the disbanding of parliament. They could easily also disrupt any referendum on a new constitution.
There are many weapons in the MB arsenal now that they have the legitimacy of the presidency, and they will play hardball with the SCAF unless the latter agrees to share power. The first indication of where the wind is blowing will be the fight over the disbanding of parliament. To think that the MB will emerge from this ordeal weaker is naive.Reply
And by the way, Morsi did not "win himself a trap", he won a bully pulpit. He will use the presidency to point out regularly how the SCAF are setting him up for failure, if the SCAF do not compromise.
Imagine what the MB were able to achieve and the base they built under military rule. You really think they will be less successful in strengthening their base when they actually hold the presidency and the parliament? That is wishful thinking.Reply
Enjoy the moment. The first and last presidential election in Egypt.Reply
… in how far a plausible and self-critical analysis and calculation [i.e. the one presented here by Sandmonkey]
– of the different forces and motivations involved in the run-off, as well as
– of some highly relevant consequences following from the resulting present state of affairs
is supposed to reveal misleading arrogance
that is and will remain forever a mystery to me.Reply
sore losers. yawn.
Brothers have proven to be most competent and by far best organized political players in Egypt. will stay that way for years to come.Reply
I've problems in understanding the strategy of the liberals in Egypt. If the MB take all institutions, then they are accused of being greedy for power. But when they offer to share responsibilities, the answer is "no thanks, too big challenge, we might fail with you". Isn't there a strategy beyond the anti-everything ? In my view, civil forces will win or loose together.Reply
The MB are Islamicists. I don't believe for a second they won't impose sharia. The Egyptians said they wanted democracy and ended up voting for Islamic radicals who will end democracy. The irony.Reply
Egypt's President-elect Mohammed Morsi said in an interview with Iran's Fars news agency on Monday that he was looking to expand ties with Tehran to create a strategic "balance" in the region.
Fars quoted him as saying he was interested in better relations with Tehran. "This will create a balance of pressure in the region, and this is part of my program".
Egypt is toast.Reply
Hopefully the implementation of Sharia Law will straighten your country out.Reply
Like it did in Afghanistan, Somalia, Saudi Arabia and Sudan? Those who want to bring Sharia only bring violence and despair. With Sharia you can say good by to any semblance of democracy that was hoped for in Egypt.
@ Latifa However in reality Shafik never really garnered 50% of the votes. We all know that is forged and to the last minute Scaf could have declared the result whatever way they wanted. – No, that's definitely not true!
1 – "the Muslim Brotherhood electoral results are trustworthy. It may, in fact, be the most trustworthy part of the entire organization and its most positive contribution to the ongoing Egyptian revolution."
2 – "the MB benefited from the PEC rule that candidate agents got to observe the tallying, had to sign the final result sheet to show they agreed and got to keep a copy of the results"
Are you serious? You don't think there was fraud? I mean this only worked one way in any major degree. That is Shafik got more than his voters. Do you not think the machine of the soft state is capable of that? 48% 52% is better than 95% for Mubarak…But we are still a long way from free and fair elections.
Let's watch and see the level of unofficial support for hamas and cross border raids into israel increase.
Let's watch as the sinai goes to even more of a wild west persona….
How long til un-named bands of "resistance" fighters go into israel and kill 6 month old "settlers"? Then of course complain to the UN when the "zionist entity" crosses egyptian national borders in illegal pursuit…
Just how many more grad rockets will be fired into israel from egypt with egypt decrying it's lack of knowledge and responsibility?
Egypt new leader is also looking to closer ties with iran…
Yep things will be heating up soon…
My real question is: How will Egypt FEED itself? How will it EARN a living for it's population?
I guess those things will not matter if Egypt can rise to confront the only issue that matters… Jerusalem being the capital of EgyptReply
Everytime we get a new boss at work my colleagues always say … it can't be any worse than the last one.
My answer is always … yes it can.Reply
In my opinion, the analysis provided by Sand Monkey is quite logical in terms of its theory and mentioned repercussions. Now after the announcement of the results with Morsi winning almost 52% of the votes over Shafik, one cannot guarantee that MB would continue to hold on power using their well-known 'religious' rhetoric. Even if their religious approach had supported their appointment in the parliamentary and presidential elections; the situation now can be quite different given the following:
– Winning the presidency with a 52% ratio is a 'winning' indicator but it is not an indication of the dominant Egyptian support to MB – given the fact that a percentage of those who voted for Morsi, actually did so out of their objection to shafik'. I.e. The excessive voting support targeting MB figures in specific, during the parliamentary elections has been downsized to constitute slightly more than half of the voting population.
In other words, statistics show that MB support amongst voters have shown a considerable decline.
– Various legal and political challenges are facing Morsi and MB: to swear in in front of the Supreme Constitutional Court which can be an implicit indication of his general acceptance to its verdicts; to alternatively swear in in front of the legally 'dissolved' parliament and put himself in a judicial and legal trap with the 'Law' that actually acknowledged him to power; to negotiate a political settlement with the SCAF to change the constitutional declaration in favor of providing him with more legislative authority; to appeal to the Supreme Constitutional Court's decision of dissolving the parliament. All such issues require primarily political and legal approaches; i.e. the 'religious rhetoric is not of use at this phase'
This is why i do agree that the rules of the game has changed; and that the room is now open for massive negotiations over holding on to power by both SCAF and Morsi or MB.
Provided the above, I have the following upcoming questions:
-what would be the upcoming political and economic consequences of the current scene.
– if Morsi reaches a satisfying political and legal settlement with the SCAF; what are the sacrifices presented by his side? if so are they ideological in any sense? what be his ruling strategy? Will he come back to the religious rhetoric? will it actually appeal to the masses; will he try to apply sharia 'as understood by MB perspective' given that he guaranteed his stay in power and would this card prove effective in backing his public support and political presence?
A lot of Ifs which i cannot find an answer to other than time….. the only fact I'm sure of is that whether conservative or liberal; religious or secular; democratic or autocratic, the coming system of governance will have to provide food, security and justice to the Egyptian people; who are as much critical as they can be emotional; very enthusiastic in their objection as they are in their support; who can push so hard to end what has been worked really hard to get started .Reply
So Good luck our President, the game is just starting and your role can soon be over.!!!!
"Will he come back to the religious rhetoric? will he try to apply sharia 'as understood by MB perspective' "
here is the answer to these questions
Egypt presidential candidate seeks Constitution based on Sharia Law
Egypt's Constitution should be based on the Koran and Sharia law, presidential candidate from the Muslim Brotherhood Islamist movement Mohamed Morsi said.
"The Koran is our constitution, the Prophet is our leader, jihad is our path and death in the name of Allah is our goal," Morsi said in his election speech before Cairo University students on Saturday night.
Today Egypt is close as never before to the triumph of Islam at all the state levels, he said.
"Today we can establish Sharia law because our nation will acquire well-being only with Islam and Sharia. The Muslim Brothers and the Freedom and Justice Party will be the conductors of these goals," he said.
Leciat, Thanks for your reply, I can understand your point and reference to the MB declarations. However, in my opinion such announcements are not sufficient to actually know how the MB will react should they indulge in power. The notions of Islam are clear and well defined to the Muslim world at least, but the 'implementation' of those notions is what counts and differs. Not all who claim to be 'islamists' necessarily implement the sharia and the sayings of Prophet Muhammad PBUH radically. When religion is politicized, conflict of interests take place, and justice and freedom can become very subjective. The MB reference to implementing sharia can be counted as a backfire itself when it is used to attract a country who's majority of it's population are Muslims; where the second constitutional article acknowledges Islam as the main source of legislation; and where lies the most powerful and historical moderate Sunni islamic institution, namely al Azhar. Egyptian people are in no need for someone to recall the notions of the sharia, they already have legislative and institutional support for that, yet they felt that the sharia was not implemented in their country. So no matter how much the MB claim to do so, this doesn't imply they will actually know how ( if truly intended by them) to implement this correctly to satisfy Egyptians both Muslims and Christians ( who represent a coherent demographic, economic and civil sect of the society).
christians who represent a coherent demographic, economic and civil sect of the society? in case you havent noticed, christians are persecuted and murdered in egypt (and the wider "muslim wolrd") with impunity. i don't think the mb or the muslim majority will give a thought to what might "satisfy" them.
Muslims as well as Christians in Egypt have been subject to injustice. The 25th of Jan revolution has witnesses the killings of both Christian and Muslim protestors. MB members themselves have suffered decades of political imprisonment and persecution by the previous regimes prior to the revolution. On another note, you have mentioned Christians being murdered in the 'wider Muslim world', I would rather not get in to this argument because if we come to global figures, you will find millions of Muslims being killed by non Muslim regimes ever since Western Imperialism was in place up till the present as in Palestine, Iraq, and even in the most democratic countries such as the US (
Muslims as well as Christians in Egypt have been subject to injustice. The 25th of Jan revolution has witnesses the killings of both Christian and Muslim protestors. MB members themselves have suffered decades of political imprisonment and persecution by the previous regimes prior to the revolution. On another note, you have mentioned Christians being murdered in the 'wider Muslim world', I would rather not get in to this argument because if we come to global figures, you will find millions of Muslims being killed by non Muslim regimes ever since Western Imperialism was in place up till the present as in Palestine, Iraq, and even in the most democratic countries such as the US (Guantanamo Detention Camp where capital punishment trial and application are widely questioned and violated). Anyways, in both cases no human being should be killed out of racist or unjust practices, regardless of his/her religion, race or ethnic differences. Back to Egypt, those who actually live in Egypt and experience the day to day events, will know that the majority of the population who had suffered most of poor economic, health and social conditions contributed to the Muslim sect of the population. Ironically enough those masses were not the ones who initiated the strikes that triggered the revolution, but it was the effective Christain and Muslim middle and upper class that this radical political change in Egypt has set up it's basis.
Millions of muslims have only been killed by other muslims. Sunnis and Shia are killing each other daily. Funny how muslims never seem to notice that. Non muslims have never killed as many of the umma as their brothers have (not anywhere near). Maybe having so many illiterate people is a reason for not understanding why you have the worst countries and why so many muslims immigrate to the west as opposed to other muslim countries.
@ Karen – Absolutely correct!
I really don't understand why many of the readers insist to switch the argument over a religious conflict between Muslims and Christians, in Islam we have no offense against any human being unless they start with aggression. Anyhow your judgement on Muslims and the Muslim world is your call and i'm quite surprized that despite your ' knowledge' and our 'ignorance' you fail to prove your point objectively and without offending others, and on subjective stereotyping of a certain sect or race. As for the historical comparison of the level of Muslim aggression against Muslims, or Christian aggression against Christains this can be proved through studies and historical records, and goes back to several political, economic and social reasons, far apart from the true callings of all the holy religions which all call for peace, justice and faith in God.
"in Islam we have no offense against any human being unless they start with aggression"
A question to muslims do you …lost for words… actually believe this shite you try to peddle?
Because no one else does, excepting the generally defective.
Quite interesting, deep and to-the-point piece ,and i do agree with the "hate" part expressed in these elections from two opponents.Reply
Well, it's a fact now, Morsi is the president:thus All Egyptians (the President of all Egyptians) need to know how truly the president is affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood now after claiming resignation from FJP party (nonsense). while i highly doubt he'll quit the MB,he's a president because of the MB.
As for the "trap" (if certified), SCAF has made to the first "elected" president: from bad economic situation to consequences , protests, et cetera, the next 3-4-5-6 days will unfold a clear image of what's really going on.i think MB are not that "Naïve" to fall for such tricks.the name of the next PM and his cabinet ministers will assert such theory. but if proven otherwise, MB have certainly dug their own grave:"a trap for fools" flawlessly conceived by SCAF (parliament dissolved, endorsing state budget for 2012/2013–and its fallout, crummy MB image through the last 14 months,constitutional assembly which is hanging in balance, the Hamas-Hezbollah-Iran saga—>KSA and Khalij relations hazed …….) when Constitution is in position and elections are revamped: ball would certainly bounce back in SCAF's arms…. :))
Egypt, be ashamed for Natasha Smith.Reply
Rename Tahrir Raper's Square!
Wow! what a comment…
"Sharia is no longer selling politically, with the population."
There is a term Allah uses to describe this 'population' – Munafiqeen (Hippocrates), and has the 'lowest' depths of hell fire allocated for this 'population'.
That's right, even below the 'kuffars' or Non-believers.
So, my friend the real revolutionary 'population' of Egypt who claim to be 90% Muslims needs to rethink what their revolution is for?Reply
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The wife of the president will alienate the egyptian women who are not covered and the christians? So i guess Mubarak's wife alienated almost all the women in egypt? Also, arent the liberals always so wary of other people(islamists) focusing on dress? Is this a case of those same people(liberals) not following their own principal? I think we should grow up. Just like liberals dont like it when islamists make an issue of women's dress, i think they should suck it up and realize that in a true democracy if that is what you all believe in, people have the right to dress as they wish within some limits ofcourse.Reply
For those of you who are enlightened to the real meaning of freedom, who know that sharia is not the way, you have a hell of a road ahead of you.
Looking forward to your next post.Reply
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Hello my friend, long time since we last talked. Happy to see you are still kicking and growing in your excellent analysis.
What have we learned?
1) Unity: a word people use to force you to comply even when it's obvious that it is against your best interests. I believe that it was used by Mubarek et al on numerous occasions in order to justify their more egregious acts in the name of protecting Egypt. Now "unity" is the word used by the MB and their co-oped leftists in the April 6th Movement to put down any opposition. That and the word "traitor". So it goes in every revolution.
Anyone in Egypt who still gives a damn about being free should tell the Unity people to stick that word up their assess.
2) Cairo is the seat of power, but Cairo is not Egypt. Cairo was always the prize and the MB has finally taken it in their long campaign. They laid the ground work by working outside of Cairo and establishing themselves in the rural provinces and other towns/cities. Even to the point where they were in public life long before February 25th in these outlying areas. In exile as they were, but slowly building their organization with the continued belief that someday Mubarek would fall from power and they would be ready and able to simply step in.
Liberal Revolutionaries in Tahrir failed to comprehend that reality. They believed themselves to be Egypt when they were really only Cairenes. Liberals have barely scratched the surface of organization. Not unity, but organization, clear message and results driven activism.
3) The Mob, Bread and Circuses: You have failed to take lessons from history. People can be easily mollified by providing bread and circuses. They will allow whomever to do whatever so long as they eat and are marginally entertained. Mostly by other people's pain. It is a sad reality of the human race, but true none the less.
The MB have been providing bread for a very long time and now they have given the people a circus. Including, most notably (and SCAF as co-conspirators), the trial of Mubarek and various others from the old regime along with the spectacle of elections and the build up to the presidential inauguration.
While SCAF tries to hold on to the national "bread" operations by controlling the budget, the MB has a new powerful tool to provide their state government with resources, seperate from SCAF, required to give even more bread: extortion. They will be able to extort all kinds of non-military related donations, loans, etc from western governments on the premise of holding Egypt to the dreaded Isreali Egyptian treaty and protecting the free use of passage through the Suez.
Regardless of the military control of budget, arms and foreign policy, the MBs in power will now only have to speak unfavorably about Israel, shaking their sabers, arousing the masses, to bring extorted funds into their coffers, into Egypt. They will be nothing more than the new version of the Barbary Pirates because trade still has to go through the Suez Canal, military vessels go through the Suez Canal. The west will be willing to give, as they gave to Mubarek, because, in the end, they will do what is politically and economically expedient.
What will the MB do with their chests of extorted gold? They will not give Egypt and Egyptians what they need, but what they want. More bread and circuses.
That only ends if the West gets tired of paying extortion or the MB overplays its hand re: Israel and the Suez Canal.
The good news:
You're still alive and you have learned some very powerful lessons about politics.
1) There are no such things as friends in politics only temporary alliances. Sometimes you are the loser. As long as you can still walk around free and speak, you are not completely lost.
2) Political defeat is not the destruction of an idea. As long as an idea exists in one mind, it can be revived, refined and become a leading idea.
3) Learn from the MB. They did not come out of no where to win, they only made it seem that way. You cannot win politically or socially without being able to spread your ideas beyond the confines of your own coffee houses or twitter accounts. You will have to travel to the desert, both politically and geographically, if you are going to compete in the politics of Egypt. Cairo was not Egypt. Egypt is "out there". Go find it.
4) Liberal Political Base: you need one. You need to establish one. It can be in Cairo, but it needs to be the singular bastion of liberal thought, politics and education. Draw people to it. Have regular lectures. Publish writers. Give lectures. In Egypt. The money will come to you soon enough. You will desperately need to refine your ideas and messages, form them to Egypt.
5) The Message: Freedom of thought and expression is a great idea and desire of all free people, but it does not put bread on the table. You need a message centered around the economy. You need to be able to decipher and point out the failures of the MB regime on the economy. Yes, they give bread, but they do not give Egyptians an opportunity to crawl out of the bread line and earn their own bread. Their policies will not provide opportunities for people to create businesses or jobs that will give them more than the subsistence bread people are living on.
Don't worry over much about their religious views, only those views, social, political or economical that directly impact people's abilities to earn a living and feed their families.
That "unity" of message will be the only thing you should be unified on. The economy most remain on top. Liberal ideas on freedom are simply the ideas that underpin a better economic plan. They are the things that you talk about after you talk about the economy.
The MB had you all so scared about the impending doom of your barely existent rights, you were running around like chickens with your heads cut off, screaming that the sky was falling when, to most Egyptians, the sky had fallen on them long ago.
The MB had the bully pulpits of the mosques and the bread. Now they have the presidency, the mosques and the bread. What do you have? You need to be pointing out the bread is moldy, comes with a deep price and can barely keep a starving bird alive, much less an Egyptian family. You will need to find your own voice, your own megaphone and you will have to work very hard to maintain your reputations unless you want to go the way of the Wafd party.
Just a few points. Oh, by the way, you will not win this war tomorrow or next year. The military won't help you. The west will only give you crumbs unless you have something to offer us. If you want your freedom, you are going to have to go out and earn it the hard way.
That's going to be years. Are you ready to fight the long war?Reply
There is a fox in Tahrir Square … And this is what he says:
• that 50.7 per cent of Egyptian voters cast their ballot for Mubarak's former Prime Minister, Ahmed Shafiq, in last month's elections;
• that only 49.3 per cent voted for Mohamed Morsi of the Muslim Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice party;
• but that the military were so fearful of the hundreds of thousands of Brotherhood supporters who would gather in Tahrir Square they gave the victory to Morsi.
Now foxes can be deceitful. But this is a well-connected fox and he claims
• that Morsi actually met four leading members of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (Scaf) in Egypt four days before the election results were proclaimed and
• that he agreed to accept his presidency before the constitutional court rather than the newly dissolved parliament – which is exactly what he did on Saturday.
• He says there will be another election in a year's time, although I have my doubts.
Now behind this piece of Reynard-gossip is a further piece of information … that the Egyptian army's intelligence service
• is outraged by the behaviour of some members of the Scaf (in particular, the four who supposedly met Morsi) and
• wants a mini-revolution to get rid of officers whom it believes to be corrupt.
• These young soldiers call themselves the New Liberal Officers …
• Many of the present young intelligence officers were very sympathetic to the Egyptian revolution last year – and
• several of them were shot dead by government snipers long after Mubarak's departure during a Tahrir Square demonstration.
• They admire the current head of military intelligence, soon to retire …
• the fox … says, for example, that the military intelligence services – like some of the Scaf officers – want a thorough clean out of generals …
One man who was not present at the Morsi-Scaf meeting, says the fox, is Mohamed el-Baradei, but he may well be asked to be Morsi's Prime Minister … Baradei's appointment would help Morsi keep the streets calm and allow Egypt to come up with an economic plan to persuade the International Monetary Fund to loan the country the money it needs to survive.
There is also talk of great tensions between the military intelligence and the staff of the interior ministry, some of whom are fearful that another mini-revolution will have them in court for committing crimes against Egyptian civilians during the anti-Mubarak revolution.
There are persistent rumours that the plain-clothes "baltagi" thugs who were used to beat protesters last year were employed to prevent Christians voting in some Egyptian villages. Interestingly, when Sultan Faruq ran through election irregularities before announcing the presidential winner eight days ago, he said he didn't know who prevented the village voters getting to the polling station.
… Egypt is not a country which lends itself to hard facts … But one fact cannot be denied.
When he wanted to show that he was a revolutionary animal,
the fox held out his back paw.
And there was a very severe year-old bullet wound in it.
The Independent – Monday, 2 July 2012Reply
I am always an optimist. I hope this election leads to good things. I was in Egypt a couple years ago and used sounds I recorded there in my music. You can hear some of it here – http://www.muteelation.com/ancientinc.htmlReply
How the Ex-Pats voted in the Presidential elections (categorized according to places/ countries of residence) – see Eric Schewe's blog:Reply
Analysis of the presidential election results Lower Egypt (by election districts) – see Eric Schewe's Blog:Reply
El Sevilla FC, a través de su vicepresidente, José María Cruz, ha lamentado este jueves que la Liga de Fútbol Profesional (LFP), como institución camisetas de fútbol , no esté respondiendo "al interés general sino al interés de una "mayoría artificial".
"La sensación que tiene el Sevilla FC es que desgraciadamente hemos llegado a una situación en la institución que no está respondiendo al interés general sino al interés de una mayoría artificial", señaló el vicepresidente a la salida de la reunión http://www.ventacamiseta.com/ de la Liga de Fútbol Profesional, donde no hubo grandes avances sobre el reparto de los ingresos por los derechos televisivos.Reply


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What does SORM mean in Russian?
This page is about the meanings of the acronym/abbreviation/shorthand SORM in the International field in general and in the Russian terminology in particular.
Sistema Operativno-Razysknyh Meropriyatiy (System for Operative Investigative Activities)
Find a translation for SORM in other languages:
Select another language:
Discuss this SORM abbreviation with the community:
Use the citation below to add this abbreviation to your bibliography:
"SORM." Abbreviations.com. STANDS4 LLC, 2018. Web. 21 Feb. 2018. <https://www.abbreviations.com/term/555221>.

subset: commoncrawl


text:
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When I was a member of my local twins group, the September meeting was always festive for that was the month that we would announce which twins and triplets had headed off to preschool for the first time. As the names of the lucky moms and her children were read aloud, shouts of joy and applause erupted from the audience.
Indeed, the first day of preschool is an important rite of passage for many harried moms of multiples but the experience is even more valuable for their young twins and triplets by allowing them to engage with other children. "Some multiples cling to their sibling, not knowing how to branch off into new relationships," explains Melissa Mullin, Ph.D., blogger and director of the K&M Center in Santa Monica, Calif., a learning center which specializes in remediating learning differences in children. "Preschool gives both twins the opportunity to make new relationships while still staying close to each other."
April Adams of Taylor, Mich. can relate. "My three-year-old fraternal twin girls, Brooke and Hailey, are super shy," she says. Eager for her daughters to learn how to socialize with others as well as become more independent of each other before they hit kindergarten, Adams enrolled them in preschool. During the first two weeks of school they wouldn't even talk to the teachers or the other children! But lately, Adams has seen a marked improvement in their social skills, playing and talking it up with their classmates. "They have grown so much in the past two months," she says.
While many parents of multiples believe they can provide a rich learning environment at home, they shouldn't dismiss the benefits of preschool. "When twins play together at home, they tend to instinctively know each other's needs, likes and dislikes," says Eve-Marie Arce, Ed.D., past president of California Association for the Education of Young Children (CAEYC) and author of Twins and Supertwins: A Handbook for Early Childhood Professionals. But enrolling them in preschool, she explains, expands their opportunity to learn about other children. "In today's world, problem solving through peer interaction is very important in succeeding in kindergarten, first and second grades."
Learning the Basics
Not only is preschool the perfect environment for multiples to make new friends outside of the twinship but a quality classroom setting also helps facilitate future learning. "It's important not to confuse preschool academics with reading, writing, and math skills," adds Dr. Mullin. "Rather, preschool gives children the opportunity to develop the underlying skills needed for future academics." For instance, coloring or playing in the sandbox helps to build fine motor skills, perfect for the art of writing. Learning to sit quietly and following directions is a precursor to reading. Building with blocks and climbing on play equipment promotes spatial skills, a forerunner to mastering math, while free play activities and negotiating with others is important for organization or executive functioning skills.
Preschool's Role in Speech Development
Since multiples experience speech delay more often than singleton children of the same age with boys at an even greater risk than girls, the preschool experience takes on added importance for twins and triplets as it gives them ample opportunity to practice language.
"Multiples acquire language together," explains Dr. Arce. "Because of it, they often imitate each other's immature speech." Plus, multiples have to share parental attention. "They just have less direct communication with Mom and Dad." When one twin asks for a glass of milk, for example, Mom or Dad usually gives it to both children rather than allowing the second child to request her own. Their comprehension—their ability to understand—may be advanced but multiples are a crafty bunch and may work efficiently by completing each other's sentences thereby cutting down on each individual's verbal practice. All of these factors—imitating immature speech, less parental attention and speaking for the other—can compound speech problems, impacting their ability to learn to read further down the road.
Jenna Pruner enrolled her identical twins daughters, Rae and Joy, in preschool at age three due to their severe language delay. "They were not saying any words at all, and had a primitive twin language that was a series of grunts and gestures," says the mom from Calgary, Canada. It paid off. By the time they got to kindergarten two years later the girls were on target in both vocabulary and expressive language. "Our preschool experience was important for my girls' language and social interaction and for my development as their advocate."
The Importance of Early Intervention
Preschool removes many of the language and social obstacles that multiples experience at home but it can also bring to light other potential problems allowing for early intervention. For instance, after Melisa Miner enrolled her fraternal twin boys, Aaron and Brandon, in a local preschool for socialization and introduction to academics, the Morgan Hill, Calif. mom noticed that one of her sons couldn't easily adapt to the school environment. "His social behavior was very different from the other children," she says. It was this observation that led to having her son tested. The diagnoses came back as high-functioning autism. Aggressive intervention followed, and now in third grade, Miner's son is doing very well. Without preschool, she says, kindergarten would have been a much more challenging experience.
Kellie Asaro had a similar situation with her identical twin sons, Salvatore and Santino, when at age 30 months she noticed that their speech wasn't on target for their age. "They were using some single syllable words, counting, and saying ABC's, but strangely, still no 'mama' or 'dada' or full sentences," says the Carmel, Calif. mom and owner of Trends in Twos, an online boutique for families of multiples. Furthermore, though her boys were happy kids who loved to play with the family, they never interacted with each other in a meaningful way. "They just seemed a bit off, like they weren't where they should be socially as well as verbally."
On advice from her pediatrician, Asaro enrolled her twins in a special preschool program through her local school district where they were diagnosed with a mild form of autism. After three years of special education classes, the boys' progress has been enormous and they're on target to attend a regular first-grade classroom next year. "They're speaking pretty much like other kids in their age group, and have a much easier time transitioning into new schedules and situations," says Asaro. "The best part has been their interaction with each other. I think as a parent, you dream of your twins being the best of friends, sharing a special bond. My boys didn't seem to express that until just recently. Now they're constant playmates."
Peace and Quiet
Even if your multiples have no special issues, if you're an overworked stay-at-home Mom, you can still reap the benefits of preschool. Just ask Courtney Ballinger. The Los Angeles, Calif. mom enrolled her fraternal twin daughters in school, Sophie and Emily, for a variety of reasons. "I believe that a good preschool helps any child with social, emotion, cognitive and physical abilities," she explains. Yet her biggest consideration was something else. "I just needed a break!"
You won't get an argument here.


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WASHINGTON — President Barack Obama served notice Monday that his administration will forge ahead with a plan to overhaul the nation's health care system despite what he described as mounting criticism, and he introduced his nominee for surgeon general, Dr. Regina Benjamin, as someone who "understands the urgency" of health care reform.
In a ceremony in the White House Rose Garden to present Benjamin as his choice to become the top U.S. public health official, Obama delivered a forceful defense of his health care plan and derided the "small thinking" that he said has sidetracked such efforts in the past. He attempted to answer critics by arguing that the plan "will not add to our deficit over the next decade and eventually will help lower our deficit by slowing the skyrocketing costs of Medicare and Medicaid."
Saying that "health care reform must be done," Obama denounced critics of the plan as representing the "same Washington thinking that has ignored big challenges and put off tough decisions for decades," adding that it was "precisely that kind of small thinking" that has led to the nation's current health care predicament.
"The status quo on health care is no longer an option for the United States of America," Obama said. He warned that doing nothing would "leave our children a legacy of debt" that ultimately would bankrupt families and businesses and would "crush our government."
Referring to his trip last week to Russia, Italy and Ghana, Obama said, "So I just want to put everybody on notice, because there was a lot of chatter during the week that I was gone: We are going to get this done. Inaction is not an option."
He added: "And for those naysayers and cynics who think that this is not going to happen, don't bet against us. We are going to make this thing happen because the American people desperately need it."
He acknowledged that Americans are "a little nervous and a little scared" about overhauling the health care system. "You know, the muscles in this town to bring about big changes are a little atrophied, but we're whipping folks back into shape," he said. "We are going to get this done."
Benjamin, a family physician from Alabama, "understands the urgency of meeting this challenge in a personal and powerful way," Obama said. If confirmed by the Senate as surgeon general, she would fill a key public health post ahead of an expected surge this fall in the swine-flu strain known as H1N1.
Benjamin, 52, told the gathering that "public health issues are very personal to me," because her immediate family died of what she described as "preventable diseases": her father of diabetes and hypertension, her mother of lung cancer, and her older brother and only sibling of "HIV-related illness" at age 44.
"While I cannot change my family's past, I can be a voice in the movement to improve our nation's health care," Benjamin said. "My hope, if confirmed as surgeon general, is to be America's doctor, America's family physician. I want to ensure that no one — no one — falls through the cracks as we improve our health care system."
Benjamin gained renown for founding the Bayou La Batre Rural Health Clinic in Alabama in 1990 and rebuilding it after it was repeatedly destroyed in a series of disasters, including Hurricane George in 1998, Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and a fire after that. She also was the first black woman to head the State of Alabama Medical Association and was associate dean for rural health at the University of South Alabama's College of Medicine.
The president's first choice to be surgeon general, CNN chief medical correspondent Sanjay Gupta, pulled out of the running in March, saying he did not want to give up his practice as a neurosurgeon or spend long periods away from his family. Gupta had initially said he was attracted to the position because of the ability to use his high-profile reputation to increase awareness of public health and to push health care reform through Congress.
Steven K. Galson has served as acting surgeon general since October 2007. There has been no permanent surgeon general since Richard Carmona's term expired at the end of July 2006.


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Anegan is an upcoming 2014 action film directed by K. V. Anand, written By K. V. Anand and starring Dhanush, Karthik, Amyra Dastur, jagan, Atul Kulkarni, Ashish Vidyarthi and Shankar Krishnamurthy in the lead roles. The film produced by Kalpathi S Aghoram, Kalpathi S Ganesh and Kalpathi S Suresh. In ...Read More »
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Aeolian Landscape
Aeolian Landscape is an art exhibit in which a miniature wind-swept desert landscape is recreated by an electric fan and finely ground sand. The motion mimics the process of wind picking up and depositing small particles. Geologists use the term "aeolian" to refer to land formations that are caused by wind. Sand dunes and snow drifts are two common examples. The visitor can change the direction of the fan and notice how the shape of the miniature dunes influences the pattern of the wind, which in turn influences the shape of the dunes.
Confused Sea
Air blowing over the surface of water inside a large plastic hemisphere mimics the action of the wind over the ocean by generating waves. The waves slowly change and build until the entire volume of water is circling as one wave. Visitors can adjust the speed and direction of the air blower and influence the building of the waves.
Tornado uses a large mist generator, fans and a care fully-shaped structure to produce a large tornado. Since the Exploratorium first produced this crowd-pleasing exhibit, it has been duplicated in many museums. Our fourth generation version is intentionally de-tuned so that random air currents can cause both the creation of a tornado and its temporary cessation. This latest Tornado is chaotic and unpredictable much of the time; it wanders off the source of the mist, slips out of the grasp of the shearing winds and presents a delightful and ever-changing image.
Sea of Clouds
A large pool of slowly undulating fog is evocative of the cloud tops of Jupiter and Venus as well as of fog forming in the valleys of Mars. Generated by an ultrasonic fog machine, the cool, dense water mist flows like dry ice fog. The top surface is alive with waves and complex convection currents. Side lighting accentuates the patterns. Viewers will be able to run their hands through the fog and alter the currents. When left undisturbed, the fog will slowly churn, constantly changing due to its own internal dynamics.
Dust Storm
A vortex forming in a 12 inch diameter cylinder filled with fluid sweeps fine particles of sand into a swirling dust devil. Visitors turn a knob to activate the vortex and watch it travel across the landscape.
Convection Cells
A shallow circular tray, covered with glass and filled with a pearlescent fluid, is heated from within its base. Instead of becoming more disorderly, as most things do when you heat them, the fluid organizes itself into an intricate pattern of lozenges not unlike the whorls of a fingerprint. Visitors may interrupt the pattern by spinning the disc, and observe the process as it reforms.
Giant Slinky
Most wave motion takes place at frequencies too high to follow easily with the eye. The spring wire transmits energy from end to the other. Because of the high moment of inertia of the spring wire, a disturbance takes several seconds to travel from one end of the array to the other. The transverse motion of the spring can clearly show wave reflection, standing waves, resonance, partial reflection, and impedance matching.
Lariat Chain
This whirling loop of chain responds to touch with eerily lifelike waves that seem to hover in midair. The motion of the chain itself causes the unusual effect: When waves travel in the direction opposite the direction of the moving chain, they seem to move very slowly, or even stand still.
Pendulum Snake
Ten brass weights hang from strings of different lengths. Visitors activate the array of pendulums, which swing back and forth. The timing of each pendulum's motion depends upon its length. Although the weights swing independently, they appear to move together, first in a line, then as a snake. After several periods, the motion becomes seemingly random, and then gradually organizes itself again as the snake pattern returns and the cycle repeats.
Stress Analyzer
Guests are able to witness the most stressed areas of beams of bridges, human femurs, and even wrenches while tightening a bolt. The exhibit demonstrates how stress is distributed throughout different items that support weight and or/do work.
Dew Point
Guests can explore condensation and evaporation and the effects of the two stages in the water cycle taking place in certain sequences. Guests can control the temperature of the metal plate in the dewpoint chamber and analyze their results.
Seasons Lab
The Seasons Lab allows guest to explore all seasons from any point on the globe. Guests can examine the amount of light received by certain geographical location any point during the year. Guests can also evaluate the affect of location and the seasons on regional temperatures and consequentially ecosystems.
AC/DC Bench
Alternate and direct currents of electricity are explained and differentiated between as guests explore the necessity of both. Visitors can determine when direct current sources such as batteries are more or less effective than electricity in homes and buildings through alternating currents. Guests use tools such as oscillinderscope, and speakers to visualize the differences in the transmission of the energy.
Orrey Table
Named after the Earl of Orrey, the Orrey table in the Math and Science Discovery Center examines phenomena such as eclipses, the rotation and revolution of the Earth, and the changing of the seasons. Guests interact with the exhibit by rotating the table and observing the motion of the celestial bodies.
Human Kaleidoscope
The series of three large mirrors, lights, and a disco ball create an undending image of the guest inside the human kaleidoscope. Visitors explore the science of mirrors and reflection.
Earthquake Simulator
Created by students from the Louisiana Tech University College of Engineering and Sciences, the Earthquake Simulator dubbed The Bulldog Shake Shack, simulates the effects of tectonic plate movement. Inside vocabulary related to the phenomena adorns the wall. Students can learn about the Richter scale and more.
Bernoulli Blower
A staple of any Math and Science Center, the Bernoulli Blower utilizes a column of air to suspend a balloon or ball in the air seemingly by magic. Guests can interact with the exhibit by removing and replacing the suspend object and adjusting the rate of air being released by the blower.
Somebody Turn on the Lights
Guests differentiate between incandescent and fluorescent light but utilizing mechanical energy as they use a crank generator. Guests observe the amount of energy necessary to light each bulb and can deduce which item is more energy efficient and would be financially beneficial in homes or offices.
Lissajous Figures
By plucking a metal rod, guests can determine the ration of the rods by the speed and pattern of vibration. Each item makes a unique path indicating its variation in ratio.


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|All the tales of the Valar and the Elves are so knit together that one may scarce expound any one without needing to set forth the whole of their great history.
|Reply To Journal Entry
| Journal Main Read Journal Entry
The Best-Loved Son cycle
February, 23 2006
Anything dealing with this cycle of stories can be discussed here: Andra and Boromir as a couple, the Denethor/Imrahil/Andrahar rivalry, the politics of Gondor in the last days of the Third Age.
Nargil said:
The amount of foder required to support a large number of horses through a siege is incredible, a horse eats two hay nets full of hay a day (a hay-net is about the size of a beanbag) so that means you need a thousand beanbags of hay for every day you want all the Swan knights in Minas Tirith, it takes up a lot of room, plus all the hard feed like oats.
That's why I suggested that MT itself has only a little troop of cavalry because the food produced on the Pelennor Fields is required to feed the big city, and can't be easily spared for horses.
I'm supprised they didn't have more archers, the Ithilien company is small but highly effectiveand very usefull to shoot people who try and get over the walls, also in the books the Gondorian's didn't have any good catapults, there where none that could reach as far as the ones the ORCS built.
Archers and catapults were well within Denethor's skill to provide. It's not hard to teach a mant to shoot well enough to hit targets in the quantity that Sauron provoded and Amrothos could have created catapults, I bet Dol-Amroth is better fortified.
Especially as the Númenóreans were famous and feared for their great steel bows. One has to assume that the art of shooting with them has fallen into decline, or is at least not kept up to par to cope with the current threat.
Because we have been getting a lot of spam, we now have a security number which you have to enter in order to post a journal reply. In the field marked validation number, enter eight two eight eight as a four place number.
Tolkien Characters, Locations, & Artifacts © Tolkien Estate & Designated Licensees - All Rights Reserved
Stories & Other Content © The Respective Authors - All Rights Reserved
Software & Design © 2003 - 2018 Michael G Kellner All Rights Reserved
Hosted by:Raven Studioz


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How adorable is this newborn baby smiles video?! Artsy Mama Bear is my other blog if you haven't checked it out yet, do it! You'll find lots of creative crafts, pregnancy & parenting topics! … [Read more...]
No Sew Crib Skirt
How adorable is this no sew crib skirt?! I was so shocked when I realized how it was made, so simple - anyone could pull this off! Chelsea said she's just a "cheapo"...more like genius! All the … [Read more...]
Weekly Pregnancy Progression Video
I am so excited to share with you my weekly pregnancy progression video! Before I even got pregnant I knew I wanted to do weekly pictures and a video at the end to show my growth. The process of … [Read more...]
The Secret Danger of Window Blinds
I was shocked when I learned The Secret Danger of Window Blinds. I hope you'll share this with others to spread the word, because I have spent a massive amount of time with children and this thought … [Read more...]


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I only became aware of the Alt-Right movement less than a year ago. I was very skeptical at first, mostly because of the name. I have never identified myself as someone on the right (although that is slowly changing) and the 'alt', as in 'alternative' seemed a weird juxtaposition with 'right.' Nevertheless, I listened to a wide variety of speakers who claimed to be either directly or tangentially related to the movement and a lot of what I heard made sense to me. The majority of the speakers I listened to were interviewed on 'Red Ice Creations.' These interviewees included people like Jason Reza Jorjani and Richard Spencer.
I quickly noticed that the people who were opposed to the alt-right were more or less the same demographic who were opposed to Donald Trump and supported Hillary Clinton. These people used the same epithets that they used against Trump to criticize the alt-right. In other words, they called the alt-right 'fascists.' When they weren't using the 'f' word, they called them 'racists', 'nationalists' , 'white supremacists', and yes, 'Nazis.'
I find all this name-calling and fearmongering to be somewhat humorous. It shows just how extreme the influence of cultural marxism, political correctness, and multiculturalism is in our culture when white-skinned people are not even allowed to express any pride in their culture, let alone solidarity.
However, this short paper is not meant to be an explanation of the alt-right nor a treatise detailing my reasons for supporting it. Rather, I wish to simply point out how easily otherwise intelligent people can be suckered into playing the political (democracy) game. I'm referring specifically to the alt-right's support of Donald Trump, Marine Le Pen, and other political figures who purport to 'speak for us.'
As soon as Trump ordered the recent Tomahawk missile attack on Syria, one could almost hear a collective 'whoosh' as though the alt-right had been punched in the gut by 'our' man in the White House. Within 24 hours of the attack, dozens of people appeared on various YouTube channels who were self-proclaimed alt-righters condemning the attack and Trump. A common refrain heard was 'Trump betrayed us.' Another one was, 'I'm officially off the Trump Train.'
Just as the Left felt betrayed by Obama in 2009, the alt-right is now feeling that same sting. But why had they placed any faith in this clown in the first place? Of course Trump told them everything they wanted to hear during the campaign. That's what politicians do- tell the people what they want to hear. Sadly, the alt-right's support of Trump shows an inexcusable naivete. The people supporting the alt-right were naive about Trump and, more generally, naive about electoral politics and 'democracy.' It wasn't a matter of 'if' Trump was going to betray us, it was only a matter of 'when.' In that context, it's something of a blessing that this betrayal came so quickly into his term. Now that Trump has ripped off his mask to show the world the ugly visage underneath, we can get on with our lives, and with business. Did anybody on the alt-right seriously think that Trump wasn't going to support Israel and do its bidding? He's surrounded himself with Jews and Zionists for goodness sake.
If the alt-right hopes to gain any real traction as a movement, it's going to need to do it from the grassroots level. Forget about Trump, Le Pen and any other 'leader' who is playing the democracy game.


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Demo FaceTime With An Apple Representative
Posted on June 25, 2010 by eli courey
If you have any questions about FaceTime, or just want to try it out, call 1-888-FACETIME and an Apple representative will show you the basics and give you some tips. The service is available between 8AM to 8PM CDT. Make sure you are on Wi-Fi before you place the call.


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The Business Case for Enterprise Disaster Recovery Planning: Calculating the Cost of Downtime
The Business Case for Enterprise Disaster Recovery Planning: Calculating the Cost of Downtime
Once you've identified those systems, you need to analyze your hardware and software configurations to understand their interdependence and find possible failure points. Next, track your outages, identify their causes, and correlate them to possible points of failure that you've identified.
Then determine the frequency and duration of these outages and identify which points of failure cost your business the most. You need to assign costs to these points of failure and manage these costs to maximize the ROI and minimize the losses felt by the entire organization.
Finally, disaster preparedness and recovery planning are iterative processes -- not a discrete, one-time event. Enterprises should take care to continually revisit their disaster-recovery plans to ensure they remain aligned with current business realities and goals and to test those plans regularly to ensure that they perform as planned.


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Oat Beta Glucan, CAS# 9008-22-4, is a Plant extracts manufactured through plant extraction, available as White or Off White Fine Powder. Oat Beta Glucan is widely used as nutrition supplements. It is widely accepted as safe food additive in many countries.
No significant side effects reported.
As Oat Beta Glucan is widely known as safe, there is no limit on dosage of intake. However, we still recommend consumers to consult professionals before using large quantity of Oat Beta Glucan for long period.
Special groups refer to newborns, children, pregnant and any other applicable vulnerable groups.
There is no evidence that Oat Beta Glucan could have any negative effects on these vulnerable groups. It should be safe to use Oat Beta Glucan in food for newborns and pregnant. However, we still recommend consumers to consult professionals before using large quantity of Oat Beta Glucan for long period in food for newborns or pregnant.
Though Oat Beta Glucan is not on FDA's GRAS exemption list, it's still widely accepted as safe food additive in many countries including USA with specific limit on dosage.
No health issues about Oat Beta Glucan reported up to now.
1. Synthesis and Characterization of Fatty Acid Oat β-Glucan Ester and Its Structure-Curcumin Loading Capacity Relationship. [J Agric Food Chem. 2014 Dec 17]
Author: Chen F, Liu J, Ye F, Zhao G.
2. Cholesterol-lowering effects of oat β-glucan: a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials. [Am J Clin Nutr. 2014 Dec]
Author: Whitehead A, Beck EJ, Tosh S, Wolever TM.
3. Oat β-glucan: physico-chemical characteristics in relation to its blood-glucose and cholesterol-lowering properties. [Br J Nutr. 2014 Oct]
Author: Wang Q, Ellis PR.
4. Optimization and characterization of curcumin loaded in octenylsuccinate oat β-glucan micelles with an emphasis on degree of substitution and molecular weight. [J Agric Food Chem. 2014 Jul 30]
Author: Liu J, Chen F, Tian W, Ma Y, Li J, Zhao G.
5. The role of meal viscosity and oat β-glucan characteristics in human appetite control: a randomized crossover trial.
[Nutr J. 2014 May 28]
Author: Rebello CJ, Chu YF, Johnson WD, Martin CK, Han H, Bordenave N, Shi Y, O'Shea M, Greenway FL.


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Women Who Are Turned Off By Nice Guys
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Drives: 2009
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: NJ
iTrader: (
This little article has me thinking and not paying attention in my meeting.
It reminds me of the phrase that use to perplex me "Become the change you wish to see."
I never truly understood what that meant? I just assumed it meant that if I behaved in a civil gracious manner the universe in some strange way would be civil and gracious to me.
However I was wrong, it's not that the universe is conscious rather it's my subliminal messages that I broadcast about who I am.
The trigger to this thought was the notion of cognitive dissonance which is discussed in this article.
Cognitive dissonance is where our internalized views of who and what we are and who and what the world is do not match with what is going on around us. This dissonance makes us uncomfortable for it questions our internalized models of ourselves and this comfort can be either good or bad. But it's mostly bad.
We are amazed and pleased and put in a state of wonder when we see a magician cut a woman in half.
Our internalized model of the would dictates that said woman should be dead and not smiling and there should be blood….
However the woman is smiling and there is no blood and by god she is split and all is well….and life is good because we are entertained by this momentary disruption of continuity between the internalized model vs the external reality we experience.
However say this dissonance was life, death, mating or career rather than entertainment. In this case let's assume the ugly duckling model of dissonance. The subject was belittled as a child and told he or she lacked the moral fiber and fortitude to be an effective leader by those he or she admired or looked up to. However later in his or her life due to circumstances beyond his or her control this person in now given the opportunity of a life time to become a leader with the full support of his or her cohort.
This causes great dissonance where the persons internalized self image does not match with how other view them. And the subject pulls back and or fails at the task.
A more subtle analogy would be where a subject was belittled nonstop or in key times of their lives and their internalized model of who they are is one of low worth….and that becomes their comfort zone. As such when said person is complimented on a job well done rather than feeling good about their work the subject will feel anxious and very uncomfortable. The person who bestowed the compliment will subconsciously pick up on this agitation and may in time stop providing continued compliments so as to not cause any unusual "vibes" from the one who is complimented. Which then alleviates the subjects anxiety associated with reality not matching up with their internalized view.
The phrase "Become the change you wish to see." As such indicates that if you wish for something to happen you must not only be open to such an event but you must also be available and comfortable when said event occurs.
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Click here to print the obituary below
In Memory of
Catherine M.P. Carroll
October 23, 1931 - November 8, 2012
Passed away peacefully on Thursday, November 8, 2012 at Scarborough General Hospital in her 82nd year. Loving wife of Peter for 56 years. Cherished mother of James (Annette) and Michael (Lori). Proud Granny of Michael, Patrick, Samantha and Matthew. Catherine will be fondly remembered as "Granny" by many at Hockey Arenas and Soccer Fields across the GTA. Friends may call the JERRETT FUNERAL HOME, 660 Kennedy Rd., Scarborough on Saturday from 7-9 pm and Sunday from 2-4 pm. A service will be held in the chapel on Monday at 10 am. Interment will be held at Resurrection Cemetery, Whitby. If desired, donations may be made to Heart and Stroke Foundation or Canadian Diabetes Association.
Saturday, November 10, 2012 | 7:00pm - 9:00pm
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Sunday, November 11, 2012 | 2:00pm - 4:00pm
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Funeral Service
Monday, November 12, 2012 | 10:00am
Jerrett Funeral Home Chapel
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Hello lovelies!
I hope everyone had a fantastic Thanksgiving! I did a round-up of some of my favorite things from blog that are on sale right now for Cyber Monday (while I lay and digest my turkey and pies) and some new items below.
Bustier is on sale right now
Ring on sale and free shipping
I love these flats for summer – I have them in this color combo.
Pink top (also comes in black and white and I love the sleeves)
Jeans on sale (last day)
And here are a few of my current favorite things on sale:
Velvet cutout dress (I love the burgundy and hunter green)
Metallic pleated dress (code THANKFUL30)
cross body bag (code THANKFUL 30)
Happy shopping!


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From Terri: I have been practicing adoption law since 1989 and have extensive experience to share with you. Please call my office at 318-387-8811 or email me at email@example.com and we will be happy to put together an adoption plan for you! We pledge to serve you with excellence, compassion and integrity as we help you through this blessed yet challenging process!
1.)I'm pregnant and I don't know what I want to do. I'm considering adoption but I don't know much about the process.
Adoption is an amazing alternative when a surprise pregnancy occurs. You know, there are so many families 'out there' who can't have children, and for them to even be able to seek out someone like me, an adoption lawyer, is a challenge for some; to come to see an attorney and say, "we can't make a baby on our own"….sharing personal hardship, crisis, and often hopelessness. Interesting how a woman facing an unplanned pregnancy is in a similar place, expecting a baby, knowing the timing, finances, lifestyle is just all wrong….for now. She faces a similar personal hardship, crisis and often hopelessness. It's pretty neat to imagine how the process of adoption can bring together hurting and troubled people and turn the whole thing into a blessing!
When you decide that adoption may be the route for you, you need to seek out an adoption attorney or perhaps an adoption agency. As a private attorney, I meet with birth moms and I assist them in putting together what we call, an adoption plan. Part of the adoption plan is selecting a family, determining what level of contact is appropriate, considering what type of medical and financial help might be needed by the birth mom. At my office, we have available numerous resources to help a woman put together just the right plan. I have many prospective adoptive couples who are ready to establish a relationship with a birth mom and help her through her pregnancy. I help couples who want to adopt to prepare a 'scrapbook' or 'profile' which is a neat way for a birth mom to meet a couple, on paper…at first. You get to get to know your couple through their pictures and information about them, to get a preliminary feel for whether they might be just the right fit. My goal in working with couples in this process is for their heart to shine through their scrapbook so that my birth mom can begin to get a sense of comfort and safety as she considers entrusting her soon to be born baby to a family. I work, offering legal information and counseling so that the relationship between birth mom and couple grows to a place of unity, with all having the same outcome. I stay involved throughout the pregnancy, delivery and placement of the child, and then continue to finalize the adoption for most couples.
2.)I want to place my baby for adoption but my family wants me to parent. I'm not ready to be a parent but I feel pressure from my family.
Making the decision to entrust your baby to a wonderful family through adoption is not an easy decision to make. It is not uncommon for family to pressure a birth mom through guilt and other manipulative tactics in an attempt to force a woman to keep her baby. However, in my practice, most times when the family becomes involved in the process, this pressure is relieved. Most times it is the uncertainty the family has in not knowing about the couple, or being fearful because they don't understand the process of adoption. I'm always happy to meet with family to give support to encourage adoption. At the end of the day, birth mom, it's YOUR decision to make. There are legal ways you can place your child for adoption without any family support or consent, even when the birth mom is a minor.
3.)I'm the father of the baby. What rights do I have?
Birth father's rights are well protected in Louisiana. A man who may have fathered a child should be contacted so that his consent can be given the adoption as well; I always enjoy including a birth father in the adoption plan and to have him get to know the prospective adoptive family as well. Many times the relationship between the birth mom and the birth father may have ended, and counseling is needed to bring them to a place to be able to work together to secure a wonderful family for the child. Men in Louisiana who may have fathered a child can file with the Louisiana Putative Father's Registry to ensure that they will be contacted if an adoption plan is formed.
4.) I'm scared and not sure I'm making the right decision about adoption. What if I change my mind?
A birth mom may change her mind many times during the adoption plan. The emotional impact in making the decision to entrust your baby to another family is big! That, coupled with increased hormones due to pregnancy can all affect a pregnant woman's mood and mindset. I always tell an expectant mom: "Your emotions change all the time, but the facts that made you consider and decide on adoption,typically do not change." If you want to be successful in completing your adoption plan, it is important to focus on the adoptive family and the wonderful and exciting life your child will have with them. You must remind yourself that adoption is truly a 'self-less' act, thinking of the best interest of your child, more than your current emotional feelings. A birth mom receives counseling from licensed professionals during the process to help her keep her mind-set on track. A consent to the adoption is signed in Louisiana on the fifth day after the child is born, so legally, a birth mom can choose not to complete the adoption at anytime prior to her executing her consent.
5.) We are interested in adopting a child. Where do we begin?
To begin the process you need to contact a lawyer who specializes in adoption, or contact an adoption agency. Each has it's own policies and procedures of how they match a family with a birth mom. There are facilitators and advertisers available in the phone book and through internet searches, but do be careful here. Many may seem to be adoption agencies, based on the way their name sounds. It is important to ask if they are a licensed adoption agency, and of course I recommend that Louisiana families select a Louisiana agency. So many of these groups are based in California, and have no physical presence in our home state. These groups often charge a couple thousands and thousands of dollars to simply run ads in papers and online to locate a birth mom. Couples aren't always advised that these large fees often do not cover birth mom expenses, attorney fees or court costs. Also, because many advertising groups do so nationwide, the advertisers don't always know the law in the state in which they are advertising, and are not proficient to provide the kind of legal guidance a couple needs. Also, because these fees are so high, a birth mom's needed expenses are often set very low, making the adoption plan difficult to complete. Remember, for birth moms and couples alike it is best to meet in person with a lawyer or licensed adoption agency before making a serious adoption plan.
Terri Hoover Odom, LLC
The Adoption Attorney
500 North 7th street, West Monroe, LA 71291
Tel. 318-387-8811 Fax 318-323-1122
firstname.lastname@example.com www.centerforadoption.com
Member, American Academy of Adoption Attorneys


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While many of the most popular behaviors were consumers seeking information, they also engaged in transactional behavior. 21 percent of smartphone consumers checked in for a flight on their device, while 18 percent booked a flight on their smartphone and 10 percent cancelled a flight.
To view the full report, please visit: Majority of Smartphone Owners Now Access Travel Information on their Devices.


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Friends: 16
Member Since: February 2, 2010Add to Friends
Kiera is a German Shepherd Husky Mix (best guess) that we adopted from the Westside German Shepherd Rescue, June 2009. She was 8 months old, 57 lbs when we brought her home. I love training dogs and I'm glad to have such a fun puppy to work with. She works for everything and enjoys doing it. She is proof that if you open your heart and rescue a dog, you may just find what you've been looking for.View Profile
This was my first dog. She passed away a few years ago but I'm sure she would appreciate a profile too. I think of her all the time!View Profile


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Part of National Museums Liverpool
Also in this section…?
'Self Portrait Drawing', circa 1768-70, Derby Museums and Art Gallery
Wright, along with his friends and pupils in Liverpool, saw study as key to his practice as an artist. Study refers to the practice of drawing or sketching before beginning work on the final painting.
Wright's usual sources were prints and drawing-books by earlier artists and casts from classical sculptures. However, he also drew from life and in response to the works of his contemporaries. Large monochrome portraits were an important strand of his work and were much imitated by his Liverpool circle.
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G7 and G20
The G7 and G20 summits are annual forums for heads of state to discuss global foreign policy issues. Global health issues—including neglected tropical disease (NTD) control and elimination—are often a topic of discussion among member countries, particularly those of the G7, also known as the Group of Seven. The Global Network, along with its partners, is working to increase awareness of NTDs among G7 and G20 leaders by participating in several advocacy forums, including G7 and G20 civil society working groups and various global health conferences, and publishing policy papers that highlight the impact of NTDs on the global agenda.
G7/8 Summits
The G7 Summit is an annual forum, where the leaders of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan the United Kingdom and the United States gather together to weigh in on global, economic, political and social issues of mutual interest. From 1998 through 2014, Russia was also included in the annual forum, making it the G8 or Group of Eight.
The most recent G7 Summit, held in 2015 at Schloss Elmau in Bavaria, Germany, included neglected tropical diseases as one of the group's top development agenda items. The global NTD community rallied together to write the first-ever Open Letter to G7 Heads of State on Neglected Tropical Diseases, calling for urgent and concrete action to fight NTDs. The Leaders' Declaration included the clear commitment to "invest in the prevention and control of NTDs in order to achieve 2020 elimination goals" through research and development, disease mapping, and community-based health systems strengthening. To read more about the 2015 G7 Declaration, please see the Global Network's statement, "Celebrating a Victory: The G7 Commitment to Fight against NTDs."
The G7 has a history of commitments to end NTDs. You can find the full list of commitments from 1998 to 2016 listed here. During the 1997 Denver Summit, former Prime Minister of Japan Ryutaro Hashimoto introduced the Global Parasite Control Initiative. The landmark Hashimoto Initiative was formally established the following year during the 1998 Birmingham Summit, elevating the importance of parasitic disease control as a vital component of improving global health.
Russia hosted the 2006 St. Petersburg G8 Summit, and was the first to make infectious diseases, including NTDs, a priority agenda item of the G8. In 2008, the Hokkaido-Toyako Summit in Japan marked another milestone, when G8 leaders committed to reach at least 75 percent of people affected by certain major NTDs with sustained action for three to five years through mass drug administration and through integrated measures that enhance access to safe water and proper sanitation.
While G8 leaders did not discuss NTDs at the 2013 G8 summit, the 2013 G8 Accountability Report outlined previous commitments to increase funding for NTD research and development and the efforts made to date. Additionally, the UK government and other partners held the 'Nutrition for Growth' event on the sidelines of the Summit, which resulted in the mobilization of $4.15 billion to improve nutrition. At the event, GlaxoSmithKline highlighted the important link between NTDs and malnutrition in the 2013 Global Nutrition for Growth Compact.
The 2016 G7 Summit will be held in Mie Prefecture, Japan. Japan has a laudable history of addressing NTDs, particularly at G7 and G8 summits. Following World War II, the Japanese government led a campaign to control five NTDs, eliminating them as a domestic public health threat within one decade. The country then applied its experience to global health. The Japanese Prime Minister introduced the Hashimoto Initiative for Global Parasite Control at the 1997 G7 summit, the first initiative of its kind. Japan also led the way for the 2000 Okinawa Infectious Disease Initiative and the 2008 Tokyo Framework for Action on Global Health while hosting the 2000 and 2008 G8 summits.
G20 Summits
Since 1999, the G20 has brought together heads of state and finance ministers of the world's leading 20 economies, and as such, preparatory discussions and annual summits have historically focused on economic and financial topics. While G20 leaders have not directly addressed global health challenges or NTDs, the 2009 G20 Framework for Strong, Sustainable and Balanced Growth recognized the links between development and global economic challenges, with a commitment to "promote balanced and sustainable economic development in order to narrow development imbalances and reduce poverty." Leaders also recognized their responsibility to invest in people by providing healthcare, education and fighting poverty.
G20 leaders advanced discussions further at the June 2010 G20 Toronto Summit, resulting in an agreement to establish a Development Working Group with the recognition that "Narrowing the development gap and reducing poverty are integral to our broader objective of achieving strong, sustainable and balanced growth and ensuring a more robust and resilient global economy for all."
Later that year, leaders agreed to 2010 Seoul Development Consensus for Shared Growth along with the accompanying Multi-Year Action Plan on Development. Nine key principles were identified that can act as barriers to inclusive and sustainable growth in developing countries, including: infrastructure, human resource development, trade, private investment and job creation, food security, resilient growth, financial inclusion, domestic resource mobilization and knowledge sharing. Since then, the G20 has issued regular accountability and progress reports from the G20 Development Working Group.
In advance of the 2013 G20 St. Petersburg Summit, the Global Network published its 2013 G20 Call to Action, calling attention to how NTDs serve as a barrier to the G20's efforts to realize sustainable development outcomes.
Although no concrete actions were taken to tackle global health and NTDs, the resulting St. Petersburg Development Outlook does highlight the importance of achieving food security, financial inclusion and human resource development, all of which are directly impacted by NTDs. The St. Petersburg Accountability Report on G20 Development Commitments called attention to the unique value that the G20 can collectively play in improving development outcomes, with the convening power of 19 leading economies and the EU and accounting for about 90 percent of global GDP.
In response, the Global Network published a blog, "2013 Summit: Das Vi Danya to NTDs?" and issued a statement "Global Network for Neglected Tropical Diseases Reacts to the G20 St. Petersburg Development Outlook."
Click here to read our 2014 G20 Call to Action. Dr. Mirta Roses, NTD Special Envoy, weighed in on International Day for the Eradication of Poverty, urging G20 leaders to tackle NTDs as a way to stimulate economic growth among the world's most vulnerable populations. Her blog "How to Ensure We Leave No One Behind on the International Day for the Eradication of Poverty" can be found here.
The 2014 G20 Summit in Brisbane, Australia, included discussions of broader development topics including climate change and the Ebola outbreak, as well as food security and nutrition. To read more about the Summit outcomes, please see here.
Turkey assumed the G20 Presidency in December 2014, making development one of the topics of its 2015 agenda. The Global Network encourages Turkish policymakers and other G20 leaders to include global health and NTDs in their development discussions in 2015.
By investing in NTD control and elimination, the G20 has an opportunity to unlock the social and economic potential of the world's most marginalized communities and mobilize new drivers of growth across the globe.
Key Resources
- List of G7/8 commitments to fighting NTDs (2016)
- Global Network Statement on 2015 G7 Leaders' Declaration
- 2015: Open Letter on NTDs to G7 Heads of State
- G7 Science Academies' Statement 2015: Neglected Tropical Diseases
- 2015 G7 Summit Recommendations (InterAction)
- 2015: Call to Action to the G7: Investing in healthy outcomes
- 2014: G20 Call to Action
- 2013: Huffington Post: An Example To Follow: Japan's Historic Commitment To Infectious Disease Control
- 2013 G20 Summit: Das Vi Danya to NTDs?
- 2013: Travel Report: Global Network Addresses Opportunity to Include NTDs in Global Economic Agenda
- 2013: Statement by the Global Network for Neglected Tropical Diseases on the G20 Summit


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A STAR of an American reality TV series inspired young dancers when she dropped in to share some of her secrets.
Twelve-year-old Mia Diaz, who appears in the show Dance Moms: Miami, showed members of Seaton Carew Academy of Dance some of her routines during a visit.
She was joined by her choreographer Tanner Wilson who passed on some top tips top the young dancers in the class at Brierton Sports Centre.
Denise Hair, one of the principals of Seaton Carew Academy of Dance, said: "The girls were really excited because they watch Dance Moms on TV and they've watched her routines on YouTube so they were absolutely thrilled to be given the chance to do it.
"We knew she was going to a couple of other schools in Hartlepool so we contacted her manager and arranged it for her to come."
Dance Moms: Miami is a behind the scenes look at Miami-based Stars Dance Studio and follows the ups and downs and its young wannabes.


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Madonna NOT "Obsessed" With Zac Efron, Despite Report
Madonna is NOT "obsessed" with Zac Efron, despite a ridiculous tabloid report. Gossip Cop can exclusively correct this claim. We're told it's "not true."
According to the National Enquirer, Madonna has allegedly become infatuated with Efron after sitting ringside with him at a recent UFC fight in New York City. A so-called "source" tells the outlet, "She is obsessed with him and has been texting him constantly. The pair took a lot of selfies together, but neither Madonna or Zac posted any of them on their social media accounts." "She thinks she's being super secretive," contends the magazine's dubious insider, adding, "but everyone at Madison Square Garden saw them flirting!"
Let Gossip Cop set the record straight. While it's true Madonna and Efron hung out at the UFC fight, a source close to the singer exclusively assures us that the story is "not true," and that she was really there with her manager, Guy Oseary. She and Efron were simply seated in the same area by coincidence, and it has in no way led to an "obsession" with the actor.
Sadly, we're not surprised by the Enquirer's seemingly made-up report. In July, Gossip Cop debunked the supermarket tabloid for falsely alleging Madonna was rejected for James Corden's "Carpool Karaoke." And shortly before that tall tale, we called out the magazine for wrongly claiming the singer was getting back together with Sean Penn. Much like those bogus stories, this latest claim is equally untrue.