text:
For all the talk of austerity, we haven't seen much
The only reason the IMF can forecast global growth of 3.9 per cent next year is that deleveraging hasn't actually begun yet, and, it hopes, won't start soon.
It's a little bit ironic that the IMF, scourge of deficits and public debt, is urging the world to go easy on the rectitude. "Conditionality", as the IMF calls what it wants in return for emergency loans instead of collateral, has been reversed. The condition for global growth now is for everyone to not do what the IMF usually wants.
Not that anyone except Germany is arguing for conditionality these days, but the idea that American politicians would actually allow the deficit reduction laws they have already passed to come into effect at the end of this year, or that Spain, Italy, France, Japan, UK, Ireland et al would do something decisive about their own debt levels scares the pants off everyone, including the pursed lips at the IMF.
So while most reports of yesterday's revision by the IMF of its world economic outlook focus on the warnings, as well as its relatively benign forecast for Australia, the fact is that at 3.9 per cent global growth is pretty good, and is higher than the long-term average ... as long as the US doesn't tighten fiscal policy, Europe's banks don't go broke, and monetary policy in China actually works.
The IMF notes with some satisfaction that advanced economy budget deficits are forecast to decline by 0.75 per cent of GDP this year. First, we'll believe that when we see it, and second, that still leaves them with deficits at 6 per cent of GDP and public debt of 110 per cent of GDP in total.
Total global debt, according to The Economist's scary global public debt clock is now $45,837,020,184,877. Whoops, now it's $45,837,024,005,392. Oh, whoops, there we go again, now it's $45,837,029,049,471. Anyway, it's 65.5 per cent of global GDP, rising steadily.
That's just government debt. Global debt per country - including governments, households, corporations and banks - is now a weighted average of 417 per cent of GDP, according to Jamil Baz, an investment strategist with a firm called GLG Partners. I haven't been able to check that number, but he sources Goldman Sachs and the Federal Reserve's Z Report.
The point is that it hasn't come down one bit since the crisis of 2007-08. There has been a lot of talk of austerity, and passionate argument from economists like Paul Krugman that it shouldn't happen, but there hasn't been much of it yet, and certainly not enough to reduce debt.
I'm not suggesting there should have been - far from it - but if and when it does happen, watch out.
Maybe the world's savers will be prepared to forgive the debt, or do a debt for equity swap. No, they won't do that. Or maybe the debtors could print enough money to create inflation and reduce the value of the debt that way. That won't work either because the creditors would simply demand higher and higher interest rates via the bond market so that the debtors wouldn't be able to service the loans.
But cutting debt the old-fashioned way (spending less than you bring in for a while) risks setting up a feedback loop. The "paradox of thrift" applies, which, as John Maynard Keynes explained, states that if everyone tries to save then aggregate demand will fall, which will result in total savings actually falling because of lower consumption and economic growth.
Alan Kohler is Editor in Chief of Business Spectator and Eureka Report, as well as host of Inside Business and finance presenter on ABC News. View his full profile here.
Topics: economic-trends, business-economics-and-finance, international-financial-crisis
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Comments (126)
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18 Jul 2012 1:07:00pm
So Alan, loosely speaking, "we broke it".
Time for another fictional construct to replace money. Start printing IOUs, perhaps?
18 Jul 2012 2:05:01pm
er, that's what, in effect, banknotes are
18 Jul 2012 2:10:42pm
"Start printing IOUs, perhaps?"
What do you mean start? We have been doing it for years.
The whole world economy is built on IOUs, and that is the fundamental problem.
18 Jul 2012 3:09:45pm
This 'debt' can never be paid off. I'm with you, lets work out a new system.
Lewis of The Hills:
18 Jul 2012 3:38:48pm
Gold? You can't just print more of the stuff whenever you please.
Mr Q:
18 Jul 2012 4:55:14pm
I've never understood this fascination with fixing the worlds finances by basing them on gold standards. Gold's value is pretty much artificial anyway. After all, a gold bar sitting in a vault has no real value to anyone - it doesn't provide anything useful, it just sits there using up space and requiring expensive security.
It's value is based mostly on the fact that it's quite pretty. It would be quite useful in electronics - but rarely do you need something better than copper, and gold is way too expensive to use except in specialist applications.
18 Jul 2012 8:38:56pm
Golds value is based on its geological rarity, it has intrinsic value and cannot be abused like paper money is.
19 Jul 2012 9:10:04am
Gold may be rare but it has almost no objective utility. That means gold is not very useful and hence has little intrinsic value. Furthermore just as many financial crises happened under the gold standard as under fiat currency.
Coal, rum or apples *do* have intrinsic value (utility) because you can *use* them. The primary utility of gold is that it is perceived as desirable. Perhaps we should switch to a coal, rum or apple based currency?
Another example: a Holden car may have the same specifications as a BMW or a Mercedes. Thus objectively all cars have the same practical utility. However due to the status of the BMW and Mercedes brands they have a higher utility because they are perceived as desirable.
Scotty A:
19 Jul 2012 12:09:58pm
Although if I live in Europe I can buy a Merc or a BMW for the same price as a Holden.
19 Jul 2012 1:36:59pm
Gold has been used as money for over 5000 years. The problems with using the other commodities you mentioned is that they either have a shelf life or they are produced in various grades, ie Light Sweet Crude versus Heavy tar sand crude, they have the same use but production cost differences are huge therefore opening up a pandoras box if you tried using this to back the currency, not to mention limited shelf life, so they all fail the store of wealth test. Endgame Gold.
19 Jul 2012 3:28:05am
i'm with u Q.
the best thing about gold, imo, is its resistance to corrosion. best used in spacecraft and as u said, various electronics.
i reckon silver is prettier, but it conducts better than copper, so would rather see some use out of it than as the thing holding my watch together.
we truly are a shallow, unvisionary species, valuing these metals for their 'looks' and making such useless items from them.
19 Jul 2012 12:15:15pm
The Gold price is already being manipulated by gold derivatives traders - there is more electronic gold than real gold, just like there is (much) more electronic money than cash printed.
The whole system is a house of cards.
19 Jul 2012 1:42:22pm
Thats right, both Gold and silver are incredibly manipulated to the downside by the corrupt bankers acting on behalf of the US Federal Reserve using paprer derivatives as their tool. The good news is it can't go on forever, experts are predicting a physical Silver default on the Comex within the next few years, there is simply not enough above ground silver to satisfy industrial and investor demand. This will blow their paper ponzi scheme to the four winds and force a revaluation of silver to the upside.
18 Jul 2012 6:45:07pm
Maybe we could go back a few hundred years and trade with SPICES like they did in the old days,at least we will still have tasty food,provided you grow it yourself.
18 Jul 2012 5:47:41pm
Save money on ink.
Don't print the IOU's, just distribute e-receipts.
As db said above - "that's what, in effect, (electronic) banknotes are."
Of course when the banks have another computer glitch like last year, your account just disappears, but hey, it wasn't real money anyway.
18 Jul 2012 1:11:02pm
So, if they stop doing what's got them well and truly b*ggered, they're well and truly b*ggered. Fine mess they've got themselves into this time, Stanley.
About that $45,837,029,049,471 debt (as was): to whom is it actually owed? Surely the world can't be in hock to China for that much? (Why do I suspect that the answer will involve a lot of mirrors, and some smoke.)
hairy nosed wombat:
18 Jul 2012 2:05:03pm
The money has been borrowed from our children. And worse, we are in the process of leaving them with the tab for our debts.
18 Jul 2012 3:11:31pm
for all the bagging on what the baby boomers did to gen X&Y, they're in the process of doing it to the next Gen
18 Jul 2012 3:34:14pm
The BB's started this debt drive, and passed on their "wisdom" to the next generations. There has never been such a selfish or self-absorbed generation than the BB's, and that includes the allegedly self-centred GenX/Y. Essentially they changed Western economies forever, and little of it benefited anyone but them.
19 Jul 2012 3:42:15am
was it the BB's at fault, who really were mostly just ordinary people? the problem may have started then, but is happening now. what's the common thread?
the bankers, the corporates, the politicians, the powerful.
the only thing the everyday person was/is guilty of was going along with the credit binge, wanting more than necessary, using up whatever we got with no thought to how long it would/could last. whether it was monetary or relying on once in a planets lifetimes resources.
i think things will be worse when said resources run out. kinda glad i won't be around to see that. sorry kids!
19 Jul 2012 11:49:48am
The problem is demographics and democracy.
There is this huge population bulge - the baby boomers - who have been brought up in good times, where there were plenty of easy opportunity as a result of the positive demographic forces on the economy.
These good times allowed governments to spend up. In particular, governments ramped up their old tricks of bribing votes with increasingly large handouts and incentives. Voters responded. So the cycle started, and has been increasing ever since.
If governments had the guts to put a stop to this gravy train, then a lot of the economic problems we see today would be pretty quickly shaken out of the system. The problem is, anyone who attempts this knows that the baby boomers will turf them out of office at the next election (if not before!).
18 Jul 2012 3:46:59pm
Wombat, I know you love that line, but it won't do. Thing this is global public debt, so it ain't our kids, and you can't blame Julia or Kevin. Our debt is a drop in the bucket. Their children maybe, but still that's rhetoric, stuff for the soapbox. I'd like a more specific answer: who's actually holding the chit for all these IOUs? Or is it bankers' monopoly money?
hairy nosed wombat:
18 Jul 2012 6:44:56pm
No, i really mean it. It has been taken from our children. When you kick the can down the road with public debt this is exactly what happens. Much of Europe and the States have been running continuous public debts for decade. What this enabled was for the generations that enjoyed the government spending to leave it to their kids to pay back the debt. Worse than that, just as their kids have strated to cop the bill in Europe they have also cut the priveleges the previous generations enjoyed. And then just to compound the problem, there are no jobs to earn the money to pay back the debt.
Much of the growth over the last few decades has been driven entirely by cheap credit. This cheap credit doesn't really have a home address - not since gold standards went the way of the dodo. Nobody "had" the money in the first place. But in the end it will have to be paid back. Our kids will be paying this back - even our kids here in Australia. They already are. They pay for it when they buy a house - because our particular manifestation of the bubble in Australia has been a massive housing boom. This has been supported by government policy aimed at shoring up the retirement savings of our baby boomers through policies such as negative gearing. It has also kept state treasuries liquid. Our kids will also pay for it in reduced global growth - which is going to last at least another decade at least. We had this decades economic growth last decade, and we achieved that transfer through massive debts. But it means there is now now money left to fund much growth this decade. This is the decade we "deleverage".
18 Jul 2012 4:03:31pm
Poor bloody kids!
We will also leave them with the future tab for our market failure in not dealing with unfetted CO2 emissions. We do not seem to be serious about tackling that problem as well. Not as many digits as the global debt, but impressive none the less .... 29,888,121,000 metric tonnes of CO2 emitted in 2008, an estimated 33,508,901,000 tonnes in 2010 and so it grows.
Will a posthumous sorry do for both problems?
In the meantime we will just continue to feed the kids heaps of sugar in an effort to help the medicine go down.
Alan, as usual, an interesting, easy and thought-provoking read.
Val Doxan:
18 Jul 2012 8:23:07pm
At least when the planet implodes from climate change, and all those that have not been killed by starvation, disease and so called "natural" disasters, and when the entire money system has broken down to the point that the only items of value are food and clean water, at least then we will have a semblance of equality.
Reformed Messiah :
18 Jul 2012 2:11:48pm
The whole reason we broke it was based in the 1970's when oil imports into the US left them broke. Before that there was a gold standard meaning that every US dollar printed was backed by a piece of gold. That was abandoned which lead to an ever increasing amount of paper (read debt) floating around in the world.
When you look back to this root cause and then think about who owes all the money to whom it's pretty easy to guess that most is owed to the oil rich gulf states. And if you wan't to know who owes most of it consider this, every man woman and child in Greece owes approximately 40 000 US dollars and every man, woman and child in the US owes approximately 44 000 US dollars. There are 7 million Greeks but there are 312 million yanks. Austerity? Will the yanks put up with that? I'm glad they don't have a military base here ... oh wait ..
18 Jul 2012 2:21:58pm
What you are missing is that there is no requirement for the money to exist before it is loaned.
B asks A for loan. A *creates* $100 (using authority granted by C) and gives it to B saying "you now owe me $100 plus interest". B then loans the $100 to C saying "you now owe me $100 plus interest". B then uses the bond given by C as leverage (under rules made by C) to loan the $100 to D through to M, plus interest.
C through to M now owe B $1100 plus interest. B owes A $100. Sounds crazy right? A has a charter written by C which says that it can only do the first step occasionally, to keep things ticking over. We vote for C.
18 Jul 2012 4:02:05pm
Yes, I missed that. This is like Stephen Hawking. So, if the money did not exist before it was loaned, and only loaning and endless reborrowing have parlayed it into existence (with interest), are you saying that "the world" owes 46 trillion which is mostly interest on money that never existed? So what actually is "there" (wherever that is) to pay it back with? How will anyone know when it's paid back? My head hurts ...
18 Jul 2012 5:29:23pm
To borrow from the Stephen Hawking/cosmology comparison, this seems to infer that 'steady state economics' (read: continual matter/energy/money creation in order to account for expansion/growth) must not be a feasible solution.
Instead it seems to infer (through the twisted logic of cosmology meets economics analogies) that unlike the Universe, the global economy did not indeed come from a "Big Bang" (apologies to Fred Hoyle).
Of course, it does seem that the global economy is instead heading towards such a bang.
18 Jul 2012 5:32:46pm
Companies, people and governments owe it to banks. Banks owe it to central banks, who created it in the first place. When a central bank gets money back it loans it out again, they don't always create it out of thin air, only some of the time.
Governments tell central banks to create as much money as is neccecary to prevent price deflation, but not so much that they produce massive price inflation. They do this because economists decided that price deflation is a "Bad Thing" because people stop spending money if the same dollar will buy more tomorrow. If you don't constantly create money out of thin air, sooner or later you get price deflation. Conversely a little bit of inflation encourages people to spend money because the money they have will be worth less tomorrow. Economists think that this is better for maximising the wealth of a society. It dosen't matter if you agree with this or not, because it is what 99% of people involved in buisiness and politics had drummed into them in the first year at university. They drive the system according to this principle and that is what it is important to understand.
On the whole, the system should not be problematic if everybody acts rationally. If a few private individuals or small companies run into trouble and cannot pay the debts they go bankrupt and the debt evaporates. The problem we are in now has come about because in 2007 some banks got into trouble (due to them doing dumb things) and because they were so big (and had political connections) the governments bailed them out by taking out loans with other banks to pay the debts of the banks in trouble. Fast forward to now and those debts have put governments in the position of impending bankruptcy, i.e. they may not be able to pay the interest on thier loans with either thier incoming revenue or new loans. These governments were, by the way, already sailing close to the wind on the amount of debt they had loaded up on.
When it looks like governments may go bankrupt, or may have to stop spending, everyone gets worried. It is not only bad for the country in question, because that country owes money to banks in other countries, which are too big to fall from those countries points of view.
SG Warren:
19 Jul 2012 8:54:06am
The whole problem is we let banks lend out ridiculous percentages of the cash currently save in them. In the USA I believe they can lend out 90% of their collateral.
But it ends up being much more than that because the first thing people do upon being lent money is put some of it in the bank and the bank then lends out 90% of the money that someone borrowed then saved as well.
Eventually this spirals down and down until 90% or more of the money we have is completely abstract and only really exist so long as people aren't defaulting on their loans.
If we started reducing the amount of money banks could lend out we'd drastically reduce the volatility of the currency markets but that's not what the banks want, they want a highly volatile market because it leads to potentially massive profits and they all rest assured that if they screw up they will get bailed out by the taxpayer.
Actually that's the other thing we should all start doing. Get rid of government bailouts as a concept completely. If an industry goes belly up and is considered to be important to the taxpayers in terms of job creation - or what ever excuse they have for socialising their loses - and the industry needs a handout have the government buy the company instead at current market value, send in administrators, then sell the company once it's making a profit again.
After all if we are going to socialise the costs of a business we might as well socialise the profits of that business too.
18 Jul 2012 8:59:56pm
Yeah, its called Fractional Reserve Lending and it is the biggest ponzi scheme man has ever created. If you or I tried it we would go straight to jail for a very long time its called counterfeiting, the banks do it and that is called prudent lending by upstanding corporate citizens.
The scam is comming to an end both at an international level and at a local level as more and more nations and people wake up and realise how they have been fleeced and are now walking away from the $USD system into gold and other currencies.
18 Jul 2012 2:31:25pm
You pretty much sum it up for me Greg.
Whoever is owed that money is collecting a vast sum in interest.
They may be like credit card providers, they don't want the loaned amount back, they just want you to keep paying interest for ever.
18 Jul 2012 3:13:47pm
i'm pretty sure the buyers of bonds are keen to have them cashed
thats when they're paid
Citizen Keynes:
18 Jul 2012 1:23:04pm
Alan, can we please empower Interpol to repatriate every Euro from tax shelters such that we will then know the full extent of liquidity and funds in the aggregate economy.
Otherwise, the austerity will be borne by the people who can least afford to do so. Again.
18 Jul 2012 1:25:56pm
Back in my adolescence, some of my more stupid peers argued, with a straight face, that the best way of avoiding a hangover from a heavy night of binge drinking was to get back on the turps again the next day and the earlier in the morning the better. I guess they are all now economists advising governments in Spain, Greece, Italy etc etc.
Since when was living within one's means "austerity" ? If the Europeans and the US want public spending to be maintained at or near current levels, they need to pay more tax. If they are not prepared to pay the tax needed to fund the current level of public services, they need to lower their expectations. Whichever way they go, for goodness sake, please stop whingeing. As the IMF Chief said, there are people in Africa who are really poor.
John Stot:
18 Jul 2012 1:52:15pm
417% of GDP & thrift doesn't work. Got it!
Alan, you could have at least concluded with a graph?
18 Jul 2012 4:06:04pm
Al is not being contradictory or even trying to frighten you and the horses.
Actually, John Maynard Keynes was not the first to point out the downside of thrift.
The good Rev Tom Malthus pointed out the risks way back in the 18th century when criticising thrift was more heretical than worshiping graven images.
The actual problem is the economic stifling consequences which occur when the practice of hoarding money becomes too widespread,
According to information released earlier today Australians are stashing it away like squirrels enjoying a nut glut; to the extent that our banks are becoming less reliant upon overseas funding by the day.
There is probably some upside to this, however it does somewhat explain why the current BOOM lacks resonance.
By the way: Al doesn't do graphs; he does charts,
Al is to charts what Euclid is to geometry.
favela fella:
18 Jul 2012 6:23:55pm
Please forgive me for my ignorance, but can you please explain the difference between a graph and a chart?
19 Jul 2012 10:45:29am
How can I wxplain this?
You know how people who neeed a reason to hate say; Manly or Collingwood, hate them for the wrong reason well...............,; actually:
It is not really like that.
Say you are in a shout at the pub and someone asks; "whose shout is it?"
Well it is a common held observation that; "if you have to ask; it must be yours!"
I would say it is probably something like that in that "if you have to ask it is unlikely you will understand."
David Nicholas:
18 Jul 2012 1:52:21pm
Alan, I have to agree with you.
I can remember during the pre-budget back and forth that I was not in favor of bringing the budget to surplus because of all the other social concerns within Australia that needed attention.
But like you when I scan the world economic scene on a daily basis, I have to say, that the Gillard government being publicly resolute to just put their head down and go forth and aim for surplus and not kick the can down the road to make it somebody else's problem was a really smart decision. Whether that practically happens remains to be seen.
However, given the modern nation states who are drowning in a sea of debt with little hope of getting in the black within five or ten years, even with good financial administrators, the amount of pain and suffering promises to be unimaginable. I thank our lucky stars we did something to avoid the blight. Mea culpa, mea culpa.
We maybe loath to credit Treasurer Wayne Swan with making responsible decisions, but with the benefit of hindsight so far, he and the government were right. Better to balance when you can than go through hell trying to keep up.
18 Jul 2012 3:13:22pm
You must be kidding, Gillard and Swan are the two most fiscally incompetent politicians we have ever seen in this country.
When the LNP Howard/Costello government came to office in 1996, after the Labour Keating government, the Australian government was $96billion in debt.
In 2007 when Howard/Costello handed over to Rudd/Gillard there was $0 debt.
Since 2007 Rudd and then Gillard have increased debt to $250billion!!!
Spending is easy, spending prudently is clearly impossible for Gillard and Swan.
18 Jul 2012 3:39:46pm
Same old, same old Rusty waiting to get in his daily bagging. Unless you are arguing that "do nothing" was the best response to the GFC, in the teeth of Ken Henry's advice, then you really need to mention ALL the factors. Which you never do.
18 Jul 2012 4:28:27pm
have a look what noddy Newman is doing in Queensland. The state has a $2.8B budget deficit so he cuts CHILD PROTECTION by 25%, cuts the AMBOS by 30% and cuts FIRE and RESCUE by 30% also in the firung line is aged care, disabilty care, education and health. What about the electricity fiasco that left egg all over the face of "can do". He insists that there are 20,000 too many public servants when in actual fact there 77 too many LNP government politicians.
18 Jul 2012 5:52:49pm
No Newman is only cutting the middle management and backoffice chair warmers - he has maintained front line services...If you have ever worked in the Qld public service ("service" is a misnomer) you would applaud his actions in removing expensive dead wood remnants from the Beattie/Bligh financially incompetent Labor government...
18 Jul 2012 9:09:00pm
Thats correct but I don't think he's going hard enough, he needs to do more than just cut jobs he needs to abolish entire departments, gone for good. Because if they are downsized they will always grow back again in the future just like a cancer that has not been completly removed.
18 Jul 2012 9:06:27pm
Yeah well 'Noddy Newman' as you call him also had to deal with the reality of over 200 000 public servants on the Queensland payroll as opposed to the 160 000 public servants on the Commonwealth payroll. These parasites are a blight on society with their do nothing cushy jobs and I'm not talking about firies and ambos here I'm talking about the 1000's of junk jobs created by Anna Bligh to appease her Public Sector Union pals, jobs like Outreach Coordinators on 100K thats the sort of garbage that Newman is cleaning up.
18 Jul 2012 4:30:03pm
Get your facts right - the Labor GFC expenditure, whether it impacted or not (which I and many others believe did not), was about $50billion....on TOP of that there was expenditure by the wasteful Gillard government of around $150billion...
And what about the FACTS fella ?
18 Jul 2012 6:19:21pm
Here's a fact for you - we have the lowest public sector debt in the OECD and servicing that debt has never been cheaper or easier.
In fact a bit more debt to fund vitally needed infrastructure like public transport and renewable energy would be a very good idea.
18 Jul 2012 7:04:05pm
Rusty you are also rusty on facts,the Howard Govt. sold the farm to get the books balanced and now we have no production coming from the farm it is all privatised so Howards wealthy mates make the money instead of the Govt. treasury.
18 Jul 2012 9:11:19pm
Its since become apparent that the stimulus was a misalocation of public funds. What Rudd/Gillard/Swan and Ken Henry failed to appreciate was that China was Australias stimulus.
18 Jul 2012 3:57:43pm
Australia did not go into recession, as a direct result of that spending, so maybe now we can achieve a surplus.
If the spending had not occurred, it is likely we would have dropped into a more severe budget deficit as a result of the recession and falling tax revenues. We would not be looking at growth now that can underpin a surplus.
When Howard left government, there was still government debt and that was a good thing. There was no net federal government debt. Getting to a position of zero net debt is not simply a matter of saving until there is no debt left.
luke warm:
18 Jul 2012 4:07:33pm
Telling half the story again Rusty? Remember the GFC, which reduced government income, causing most of that debt. Remember the other legacy of the Howard government - the 'entitlement mentality' of 'aspirational' middle income earners who felt they had a right to government welfare handouts?
Of course, Labor had a choice when the GFC hit. They could have cut expenditure (starting with middle class welfare) to match their reduced income. That would have sent the country into recession, lifted unemployment to 10% and reduced GDP. We could have has a generation of people walking the streets looking for work - like the 1930s.
18 Jul 2012 4:11:18pm
Sorry David, not sure if you know this but the outgoing Howard/Costello budget was actually in structural deficit according to Treasury. Thanks to reduced tax rates and vastly increased middle class welfare during their tenure, the Coalition were paying out unsustainable amounts of money based on projected 'normal' revenues, which was only covered up by higher than anticipated collection as the result of the mining boom. So, any surplus was down to a happy accident and one-off sales of taxpayer funded infrastructure to artificially boost the bottom line. To use a personal analogy, I could win a modest amount on the Lotto or sell my house, but the increase in bank balance wouldn't be sustained, repeatable or reflect any increase in budgeting skills or earning potential on my part.
You'll also find that the minimal deficit we're now running is largely due to decreased tax revenues from the global financial crisis, rather than any government spending to reduce the impact of the GFC. Given that the vast majority of economists have praised the ALP for their financial management and agree that the strategy of fiddling while Rome burns would have had an even greater negative effect on Australians and our economy, you might have your assessment on responsible economic management a little backwards there.
Funny thing is, I don't even tend to vote Labor but it really does amaze me that the narrative of "Hurr, ALP BAD MONEY" is so persistent in spite of the facts.
18 Jul 2012 4:14:31pm
Rusty, I'll be the cracked record. Howard & Costello handed over a a budget surplus, they also handed over a muli billion dollar national debt. There is a difference. Also the BUDGET surplus was for a rainy day and when it came it was used and used responsibly in such away that Australia avoided recession (I'm not going too fast for you). What did you do with your $900. Did you give it back? Did you service household debt (which wasn't its intention)? Did you like me, go out and spend it in a local small business to keep employment in thoses busineeses viable?
18 Jul 2012 7:23:30pm
Wait, no they didn't.
We had no federal net debt in 2006. We were in the black. See page 10 of the treasury's report on Australia's debt history.
We had state debts in 2006, household debts and a federal gross debt (before you take into account their holdings), but the Howard government left this country in the black.
If you want to say it cost us too much (ie Telstra), or he didn't save enough (the mining boom being used to fund middle class welfare), that's fair enough, but you can't deny he paid off our national debt.
18 Jul 2012 6:01:40pm
It seems that you would have preferred Aus to go into recession.
Did you want Rudd/Gillard to follow the Thatcher Model: Budget surplus(rejoice!) with just a few minor side affects(poverty doubling and unemployment going from 1 million to 3 million).
I also note that you don;t mention the economic disaster Howard/Fraser left Hawke and Keating.
David Nicholas:
18 Jul 2012 7:30:30pm
Rusty, wasn't here in 2007.
I was documenting the derivative business as it was beginning to tank when BNP Parabas hit the delete button and wiped $3 bn in subprime mortgage bundles from their portfolios because they could no longer verify the asset's value. Bankers couldn't jump out of windows as their banks were collapsing because they were sealed and bulletproof. You had to be there, dude.
There's a lot to be said for caution and responsibility. Ask the Greeks.
18 Jul 2012 4:21:51pm
David, in Queensland we have an LNP premier who left a budget deficit of $1.8B to the ratepayers of Brisbane, who sreams, huffs and puff, because Anna Bligh left him a $2.8B state budget deficit and when you consider that more people live outside of Brisbane than in it in Queensland, that makes his financial bona fides sloppier than Bligh's.
18 Jul 2012 6:27:44pm
Anna Bligh, according to Costello, left a nett debt of $90 Billion. It's that mortgage that's the problem, not the $2.8 Billion credit card debt.
Newman can clear the credit card in a couple of years. To pay down the $90 Billion will require selling the Barrier Reef to China, or something along those lines.
18 Jul 2012 6:42:51pm
It's not the 2.8billion that offended people, it's the 90 odd billion of state debt, over 100 percent of GDP, from about 14 percent sin 2004, and don't forget the sale of every thing not bolted down in the last term, otherwise the defecate would have been a bit bigger, but you can only sell assets once. It also included the sale of a very big income stream, q Rail, which is absolute insanity. Makes 1.8 look puny.
19 Jul 2012 11:31:52am
Actually it is only approx 62 Billion in debt, but ifn you take the previous 5yrs of conditions, it is likely to get to 90-100 billion.If we have 5 relatively peaceful yrs without major floods and cyclones, it will be signifigantly less. At least much of the debt was used for infrastructure. But hey, why not get in one of your mates for some serious doom and gloom and have an excuse to break your election promisesS
18 Jul 2012 1:56:52pm
I'm no economist, but in a world where some people have surpluses - i.e. this one since the agricultural revolution - isn't debt inevitable? The people with the surpluses *want* to lend them to others to make more money.
18 Jul 2012 6:22:35pm
Surpluses normally would be traded for things the producer did not have. Surpluses created trade and merchandise - through barter. Money was a medium of exchange to facilitate this trade before money was corrupted.
Banksters and the elites they served/rorted created the concept of debt many centuries ago, but debt is not inevitable. Pay off your debts and see what happens.
18 Jul 2012 1:58:46pm
Deleveraging has begun, however you haven't seen anything yet. A small amount of deleveraging has occurred in Australia and will probably continue for the rest of the decade, particularly as the mining boom is ending fast now. So much for the MRRT. As for Austerity, even modest cuts in spending have seen Greeks and Spaniards spilling blood. They have just become so addicted to Government handouts, which of course never last forever. I think the Germans are just buying time for their own orderly exit from the Euro. There is little in interest in hanging around to deal with French and Italian bailouts within Germany. Scandinavian countries are quietly continuing their long retreat from being the large taxing socialist welfare states they had become as well.
luke warm:
18 Jul 2012 4:08:56pm
"They have just become so addicted to Government handouts, which of course never last forever."
A bit like Howard's 'aspirational' middle income earners
18 Jul 2012 9:14:28pm
Yes but Howards aspirational middle income earners were actual taxpayers as opposed to the non productive welfare dependant class that this government loves to hand the cash out too.
Tumburrumba :
18 Jul 2012 11:22:53pm
So why has Gillard increased all of those bribes? Or are they okay from the Left? School rebates and carbon tax payments what a pathetic joke.
18 Jul 2012 6:52:05pm
And just what is the US retreating from? Who will the Germans sell to if the EU goes under?
18 Jul 2012 2:03:54pm
Why can't all those countries that act as tax havens be invaded by China and the USA? Start with Switzerland. Its easy to surround. Send in the armed forces, catch all the bankers, interrogate them (oops, interview them), then hunt down all the tax cheats.
18 Jul 2012 3:39:18pm
So.....you support tyranny and the alleged right of super-powers to turn Switzerland inside out?
Good thing neither the US or China would do that: too much to lose themselves! Besides the majority of accounts rifled "for the pubic good" would be entirely legal, and the true crooks would be quite safe.
It is not illegal to be a tax haven, though it may require care to domicile one's affairs in one as tax departments the world over are notoriously paranoid about tax havens and banking privacy.
18 Jul 2012 4:30:09pm
Wouldn't they? It would only a slightly more whacko republican than George Dubya and that's on the cards.
18 Jul 2012 3:56:29pm
Good idea. You could step on Liechtenstein if you can find it, and San Marino. Is Andorra a tax haven? Must be, now nobody uses stamps. Clean 'em all out.
18 Jul 2012 2:35:51pm
When will the purveyors of the dismal science (economics) realize that you can't grow forever. At this rate, I estimate there to be more dollars than atoms in the universe within my lifetime...
Marrow Master:
18 Jul 2012 4:01:55pm
Atoms in the Universe:
I understand that the Number of Close-packed neutrons that could exist in this universe is 10 to the power 87.
This is teh alrgest physically possible number - electrically charged particles would fly apart.
This is assuming the current observable univers - who knows what we may find later.
19 Jul 2012 12:31:20pm
I think this illustrates why the limits to growth theory is wrong. Despite a (supposed) limit on the physical number of "things" we can have in the universe, I can think of a number bigger.
If the economy were composed simply of tangible things then limits to growth would exist. But it is not. Much of economic value is based on the value of creativity and ideas. Unless you propose that there is a limit to the number of ideas that can be created or the value a person might place on them, there is no theoretical limit to economic growth.
There may be practical limits to growth imposed by the tangible universe but theoretically there are none.
18 Jul 2012 6:15:33pm
Ben Bernanke should be able to create 10 to the power of 87 dollars within the next couple of weeks.
He has "a printing press (its electronic version)" and so can create that much money in the time it takes to hit the zero key 87 times after hitting 1. That will get rid of those pesky trillions. Sound economic fun-da-mentals!
19 Jul 2012 11:30:41am
Yes, we have run out of planet. Population reduction is inevitable.
Old Codger:
18 Jul 2012 2:38:00pm
I am amused by the clear trend by the MSM 'experts' from a "she'll be right" stance, to a "fasten your seat belts" warning over the past few months.
Must have washed the crystal ball. Mine never needed it.
18 Jul 2012 2:48:47pm
Yes it is a good question to WHO is all this so called money owed to ?
tell em bugger off - and just write it off and start again - why what difference will it make - so a few international banks go bust --booo hooo - who cares if the eoro falls apart it only a construct of socialist technocrates and the people that finance them - there probably are not more than a few thousand of them, so they go broke big deal . They deserve it the reckless idelogical clowns : write it off the whole lot anywhere and everywhere and start again . Bring back the gold standard and ban these creepy international money lenders .
18 Jul 2012 3:48:58pm
In short this money is owed by all and sundry to either a bank or series of banks, even if you have no actual debt/credit in your own name. The fiat currency you pay for your lunch with is essentially manufactured and accepted at it's worth. It has little wealth to back it up. A run on a modern Australian bank would likely see us fighting for AUD that will be worth little to nothing within a day or two anyway.
The main reason we weathered the GFT was our banks: bollocked by everyone, but ours had very limited exposure to the US Sub-Prime mortgage markets due to our laws. Now one can argue that, had our laws been as tattered as the American banking laws, we would likely be as they are now. Our Reserve Bank operates differently too, and that also undermined the US economy for decades.
You cannot simply tell the people owed to "bugger off", if you owe them money! Try that with a debt collector and see how far it gets you! Simply declaring bankruptcy (at record levels in the past two years) does not help the economy because people have still lost out. these banks are huge, and them going bust will affect you, and millions of others.
As for the Gold Standard: there is not enough gold in existence, even at today's prices, to account for the USD in circulation, let alone all the other currencies.
18 Jul 2012 6:32:15pm
So if all this money is owed to banks, who owe it to other banks, and so on and on up to at least M (see Geoff above), does that mean that the global 46 trillion is not 46T at all, but a much smaller amount that has appeared to expand by being owed over and over again, with every "debt" in the sequence counted as a separate amount? If so, is there an end point from which one mighty payment could begin a kind of reverse erasure of indebtedness, or would that well and truly b*gger everything as well? (At least I'm trying to understand.)
18 Jul 2012 6:48:43pm
'Them going bust (meaning the banks) will affect you and millions of others"
So true Shebs-therin lies the problem- we are deamned if we do and damned if we don't UNLESS -and it a big unless- we make them use the 80 trillions or so they use every day to play the derivatives casino on things that are made-grown or fixed. And not pay the sods a cent until that is done and economies are growing (albeit slowly) again.
18 Jul 2012 4:01:15pm
Some of it is owed to you if you have superannuation or certain bank deposits.
19 Jul 2012 11:32:10am
Oil junkies are not going to tell their dealers to "bugger off".
jak jones:
18 Jul 2012 2:54:27pm
What an unholy mess. Total debt 417 per cent of GDP! Incredible. If 'The paradox of thrift' is the best option then watchout. What about a good old war! Or one world currency. Is that the plan? Is there a plan or is this just rampant greed and foolishness. What is going on?
18 Jul 2012 6:09:59pm
One world currency is the plan for the New World Order, and in fact they already have it with SDR's at the IMF and World Bank.
Debt will not be eliminated though. That never happens even with war. Just ask (or google) the Germans and the UK how many billions they each paid off for WWI and WWII.
Inflation (Hyper or otherwise) makes it smaller and manageable.
19 Jul 2012 11:34:53am
Ultimately, currencies are units of energy which, are diminishing rapidly.
18 Jul 2012 2:55:54pm
The "paradox of thrift" applies, which, as John Maynard Keynes explained, states that if everyone tries to save then aggregate demand will fall, which will result in total savings actually falling because of lower consumption and economic growth....
But what if Keynes is wrong? Ever heard of Says Law or classical economic theory? Bothered to look at what Sweden (of all places) has achieved? J S Mill directly contradicts Keynes. Roosevelt, by government intervention and regulation, extended and made worse the Great Depression in the USA. The thing that brought Australia out of the Great Depression much earlier than the USA was the Premiers' Plan, essentially old-fashioned thrift. Our own recent stimulous did not save us, China and the resources boom did. All the stimulous did was leave us with debt and a bloated Public Service. Cutting debt the old-fashioned way (spending less than you bring in for a while) is the only viable long-term solution. As so many people have said, you can't borrow your way out of debt. Socialist governments try but they always, inevitably, run out of other people's money.
18 Jul 2012 3:27:54pm
Here's a thought, Roger: There's no such thing as "my money" and "other people's money."
It's all "other people's money!"
18 Jul 2012 4:34:02pm
You could say it's tainted money. It 'taint yours and it 'taint mine.
18 Jul 2012 4:03:21pm
Keynes was and is broadly right. You need to review the economic history of the great depression without revisionist blinkers.
M goes Viral:
19 Jul 2012 1:40:26pm
Roger, you could well be right. So few predicted the GFC. Can any-one really predict the future?
John in Brisbane:
18 Jul 2012 3:00:24pm
It seems a bit like a climber who's inched out onto a sloping rock shelf with a drop-off on the lower side and they've realised that they might have just enough friction to stop sliding but not enough to lift one hand off to grab a hand-hold. Ok that's far from perfect but just like that climber, while it's sensible to pause to take stock and make a plan, if we wait too long before acting we'll be getting weaker and more panicked and slowly the efficacy of any plan will drop.
To mangle the old Keating comment on self-interest, I am slowly coming to the view that a fair bit of the solution to all this is must involve scaring the bejesus out of the people at the top of the financial tree. I know there's plenty of fear around but for the most part, I don't think it's the nausea-inducing existential fear that comes from the thought of losing your house, life's savings etc, and especially not among those who've been successful for multiple generations. It's a good time to buy big boats but they're only accoutrements. The "Occupy X" movement might have lost credibility due to attracting the usual anti-everything protesting-types but to be frank, there is a serious problem at "the top" and I'll try try to give my take on it briefly:
There has been a decoupling of personal consequence from strategic influence. The captains of industry have always (and often rightly) had a fair influence on public policy. Greed and/or narrow interests often play a part but these people need to be in the thick of it, balanced by a strong sovereign and societal groups and norms. The merits and ethics of the blow-out in executive salaries can be argued but the critical factor is that, unlike in previous eras, these people don't have their kids on the front line and they'll almost certainly never be lined up against a wall. Maybe an abiding love of humanity is too much to expect but there is a lack of the (I am arguing) essential fear-that-everything-youve-ever-done-will-be-lost self-interest to motivate these people to prevent things getting out of hand or to then fix the mess expeditiously. Sure, thats the kind of motherhood statement we can all nod our heads over, but then inevitably shrug our shoulders, think briefly of the impossibility of unscrambling *that* egg and move on. Instead though, quite simply, something radical must happen. Whatever the process, the outcome must be a world-wide agreement to work out the full causes of the current malaise and then, depending on the consequences experienced by the average person in the final wash-out, commensurately ruin those responsible.
jak jones:
18 Jul 2012 3:28:07pm
John, not a criticisim but this line of yours here "something radical must happen. Whatever the process, the outcome must be a world-wide agreement ". That line is exactly what some people say you, others, me, is the conclusion we are 'supposed' to come to. And the radical solution to be offered after the current model collapses, is a one world currency. But we are not there yet, more bad news would have to happen. But the ingredients are there, now, for it to really blow up. Watch this story
19 Jul 2012 11:02:42am
People - mainly conspiracy theorists with the odd lefty idealist and/or economist thrown in - have been talking about "one world currency" for many years now.
I would have thought that the US dollar would have been a prime candidate as it was so widely adopted (and it was the de facto and, in some cases, the de jure currency of some countries besides the US) but now it's in the crapper so that doesn't seem likely.
I would also have thought that the current travails that the Euro is experiencing would put anyone off the idea of a common currency. Surely anyone looking at that would be driven away from the concept of a common currency, rather than thinking, "Sure, that looks like a good idea"?
So, in short, it seems even less likely now that the world will adopt a global currency and, had the secretive, Machiavellian, "powers-that-be" genuinely wished to impose a one world currency, it would have been better for them to do it years ago and the opportunity would seem to have passed.
19 Jul 2012 11:40:54am
Compound interest and 7% is a doubling in ten years. What will the world look like in ten years if China's GDP doubles? Those resources have to come from somewhere and it is out of the pockets of the West as we have seen coz, there ain't that much.
That is what is scaring the top of the financial tree.
18 Jul 2012 3:03:07pm
Alan, all of us either as individuals, businesses or governments operate on debt. If we didn't our economies would be a fraction of the size that they are now. Growth would be a fraction of what it is now, that is, if there was growth. Those are the basic facts of our economic system.
That does not say that all growth is good growth, or that all debt is good debt. Much of the debt of the latter 1990s and 2000s up to the GFC was not good debt because of the flawed building blocks that it was built on. That is what the global economy is paying for now.
Most of that debt is and was not actually government debt. Most of what is now government debt has come from two sources. Government debt used to underpin financial and other industries considered to big to fail. And government debt accrued because of a failure of their tax revenue to meet their budget outlays.
Most of the debt accrued by private industry and or individuals was accrued in two main ways. One was through paying overinflated prices on property, the takeover of other businesses, or on shares and debentures, with the expectation that they would simply keep increasing in value. The other way was through pure un-adulated speculation on high risk financial products. Why? Simply because of greed and the belief that risk was dead and if you did not get in you would be left behind.
As for debt, as far as I am concerned the debt you are talking about is only one part of the debt picture. There is also the ever mounting debt of underspending on infrastructure (including maintenance of) and services (education, health, etc. etc. etc). No modern economy can continue to remain competitive without investing in the infrastructure and services that underpin that economy. And no modern economic can continue to remain competitive without a government that understands this fact, taxes appropriately and invests appropriately.
18 Jul 2012 6:03:59pm
I agree with a slight embellishment.
Debt = money
Money = debt
All modern money is created through the creation of debt.
If governments created the money (without debt attached) via their treasury, it would not be so pernicious. It has been done correctly before. Since they agreed to allowing central banks to create money to buy government debt (bonds) we voters are all on the hook.
Our favourite words for this decade all start with D:
Debt Default
The sooner it all breaks apart, the sooner we can get back to work without the banksters stuffing it up, IF we learn from history.
I note HSBC are now in the news along with Barclays and JP Morgan. That covers three of the biggest 10 banks in the world. Wobbles!!
18 Jul 2012 6:40:53pm
Well put John- its not rocket science but try to get extreme right LNP -who was party to the global asset and credit bubble to show some common sense and agree.
18 Jul 2012 3:09:29pm
So, to me this article underlines that we live in a finite world. Never ending growth is not possible.
On a global front, population is out of control, with all of the flow on effects this creates. Spoiling our environment, vast differences in wealth distribution, perpetual states of war.
Something will eventually have to change, whether it's through mutual obligation or simply necessity. I suspect it will be the latter, and it won't be pretty. It may not be in our lifetimes, but eventually there will be a breaking point.
18 Jul 2012 3:14:35pm
Paper currency side at 52 and like the many I get paid less per hour now than I ever did going back to 1978 when first I joined the workforce. Like the many we have gathered competence in a variety skills and become more collaborative yet we are deemed worthless on paper.
Meanwhile activity in the Persian Gulf bumps off a nobody fisherman which then bumps oil prices upward all over the planet as expected. Just long enough to sell all that cheap oil you new was going to price spike.
Speculation industry needs a new name.
P of Adelaide:
18 Jul 2012 3:24:31pm
Excuse my ignorance, but why can't everyone just default on the debt ? What really happens in the real world if it doesn't get paid back ? Some banks and rich people will go broke, credit will be hard to find, but what else really changes ?? People who have cash will still want to lend money to those who don't, so I don't get what all the fuss is about.
18 Jul 2012 4:13:56pm
if you have super then you are the faceless lender it is you and me who will suffer , so the greedy borrowers get off scott free . i dont have an answer , but defaulting is certainly not it
18 Jul 2012 4:17:42pm
We don't know who is owed this money, it is an electronic transaction at best. Defaulting is fraud and it is unethical, but that doesn't stop right winged despots.
Edge Hillbilly:
18 Jul 2012 3:33:11pm
One of the principles of wealth creation is to borrow to buy appreciating assets.
To complete the picture in the article, what is the value of the assets which secure the debts and are the assets appreciating or depreciating in value?
18 Jul 2012 6:34:44pm
Most share portfolios are down 35-605 from 2007 values; houses in the US, UK,Ireland and parts of Europe have lost up to 98%/ Does that answer your question?
18 Jul 2012 4:46:56pm
If the global debt is 417% of global GDP, then of piddling little debt of 5% of national GDP doesn't look too bad.
18 Jul 2012 5:08:25pm
why not do debt equity swaps? It'll cancel out the debts that net borrowers have to each other and show the net debt that countries actually have- which I suspect to be somewhat lower than numbers shown
18 Jul 2012 5:21:28pm
if I understood Alan correctly in that the total global debt including Government private, banks etc is 417% of GDP while the total global Government debt is 65% of GDP then it seems the non Government debt is a bigger problem than the Government debt-which presumably includes private debts that became public debts-like the bank bailouts.
Either way- the masters of the universe- the free marketers -have put us between a rock and a hard place.
Surely not even the LNP can blame the mess they helped create while in Government on the Carbon Tax.
Donald O'Halloran:
18 Jul 2012 5:25:43pm
Assume the decisions of 2008, to be the most critical in the breackdown of the world economy, due to the resistence to face the real problem supply-side monetaristism, and the thirty-two years of guilt, that is compounding all decision making straight into history's notebook of war, disaster, and high intrigue, then history's actual statement says, that those decison all of which were wrong by law, economics and actual balance, must be recinded before any, and all remdeies known, and published, can ever redirect the world economy away from consumption, leisure, and the inbalance of professional sport. Corruption in Uni, and tafe by supply-side purchase, dominance, and illicit rule, has corruptted all education, to exclude the actual proper solution, and all its' historical references, which proverbaly will be edited out of all educational material, by supply-side economics illegal rule, and power dominance.
18 Jul 2012 9:53:31pm
Don, I read your piece a couple of times 'cos it initially seemed a liddle bit deep to me. Help me out here... exactly how do professional sport and TAFE corruption affect any of these issues? I guessed I'm still missing something...
Donald O'Halloran:
19 Jul 2012 8:35:26am
If interested, I have over the last week published short references, and sums to the proper solution by academic history, to all the credit, debt, banking, financial, and economic crisisies, on facebook. My solutions are factual, and run according, to the accepted efficiency, of theory in practice. I have 79% of the Administrator's case published, and a proven full solution referred to in the Tiebetian Banking case. While holding also the Crown Case, the Sovereign's case, and the returned Commonwealth bank case.
19 Jul 2012 11:08:19am
IncGarg, this is an example of someone under immense pressure in their personal life, likely due to very real stress, where the self has fragmented somewhat.
If the emotion was managed first, if Donald was listened to in a physical face-to-face (somatic) way, then it would be possible to wade through the molassis of his words, and understand the content beneath.
You never know, it might be profound. It might even be so profound that the content itself is partly the cause of the fragmentation.
Alas this can't be achieved online, and unfortunately, such as he is usually deprecated more widely by society in general. Care and respect needs to be taken.
It is also an example of how emotional work, when left unmanaged, can become a problem. Unfortunately when I see people debate in politics, there seems to be an awefull lot of unmanged emotional work.
Of course I suspect this won't be posted, but the censors might get something from it.
R. Ambrose Raven:
18 Jul 2012 6:06:49pm
It will be a decade before the Eurozone, the United States, Japan and developed nations in total can constructively escape from their straitjacket of high debt and low growth. Global growth will therefore remain stunted, interest rates artificially low, and the investor class continually disenchanted with returns that fail to match expectations. Yet as an aggregate, the wealthiest quintile of the global population enjoys more than 70 percent of total income compared to two percent for the poorest quintile (83 versus one percent under market exchange rates).
In borrowing to drive "growth" and failing, Japan racked up the biggest public debt in the world, thus demonstrating the enormous and futile cost of attempting to use profit-seeker ideology to find a remedy for profit-seeker shortcomings.
Nothing better demonstrates the class nature of Western society than that coverage regarding the Eurozone crisis focusses almost entirely on the protection of the wealth and privileges of the filthy rich. Interest in the impact on ordinary people is as minimal as mention of it.
We need a fundamentally more anti-capitalist way of life. Our lifestyles have changed an awful lot since the cave-dwelling days, or since feudalism for that matter, so we can and should adjust to a much shorter working week and of necessity a fairer sharing of society's wealth. Note, in that context, that Japan - the most stagnant - is a warning of attempting to maintain inequality without regard to social need or even the future.
19 Jul 2012 9:19:48am
Another good piece Raven-thanks. I could not help but notice you get few responses from neo cons to your comments- is that because they make so much sense?
Remember how with computerisation and automation we were told we would be enjoying shorter working weeks?
We sure do need a less, I would say, extreme- capitalstic way of life-one when we can enjoy it more- share the wealth-share the prosperity -which is not about money.
R. Ambrose Raven:
19 Jul 2012 11:18:15am
I'd like to think so. Wrecking is much more interesting, even if it damages the wrecker as well as the wreckee. Reith might pursue a viciously anti-worker total pro-moneybags line, but his articles get plenty of contributions, even if many of them are unflattering.
19 Jul 2012 11:49:28am
It will never happen. The era of economic growth is over and debts are not going to be repaid. Only a total rethink will solve our problems.
I think that we should start implementing global population reduction strategies as a priority. If we don't, wars or famine will.
18 Jul 2012 6:45:25pm
Once debt is over is large enough, say 100% of GDP, then every cent of growth in GDP will go to pay the interest on the debt. In the case of US, Japan, Greece, Italy and Spain their growth in GDP is less than their interest payments on the debt, so they are all in a viscous spiral to depression and default. The sooner it is started the better.
The choices are all nasty - hyperinflation or default or austerity (impossible).
18 Jul 2012 8:50:47pm
Alan, while its possible for individuals and corporations to deleverage its matematically impossible for nations to deleverage or pay of their debt under a fiat money debt system.
When you consider that all new money brought into existence by central banks is created as intrest bearing debt, all that can be done is to pay off old debt with new debt plus interest, therefore making it impossible to deleverage under a debt money system and the constant expansion and debasment of the money supply only adds inflation and reduces purchasing power of each unit of currency wiping out savers.
The worlds Fiat currencies have a lifespan of about 40 years before they implode, the current $USD system is 41 years old in August marking the day when Nixon took us off the Gold Standard back in 71 and the credit bubble began.
JR Cy:
19 Jul 2012 1:06:11am
First, on the medium : unavailable before the 21st Century. ("Talking" to this unknown audience, enjoying the insights and commentary of mostly Australians on our public broadcaster funded information superhighway, including Mr Kohler, one presumes!)
Second, Whether or not you agree with economic arcana, allegories, absolutions, or abstract theories, money has some connection to real wealth defined in terms of survival. If you've travelled OS to countries without social security nets a sense of the respect for money that other countries have is but one of the gifts you may be given. Cultures without money have obligations eg Yuendumu. Beaut place, but not money oriented as seems to be the case ".here" .Aside aside,future claims on wealth 417%??!? seem dangerous - super pools need lifetime wealth replenishment true, but wealth growth might well be 0.25% for decades and closer to OK if sustainable low impact middle class ( ie comfortable, just ask most people you don't know) world numbers grew and were replicated in the advanced economies. Greed might be said to be good, but having enough can be said to be better.
Third, the sphere's surface we call Earth is finite and old. Precious. Unfixable. Limited. Exponential growth doesn't work unless constrained to taper off growth eg a forest.
Fourth, A sense of gormless snake-entranced paralyzed wonder and confusion is permeating economic reporting - I believe due to the reality principle striking a note of "How, with peak purchasing power some time in the past, and unmistakeable 7 billionish mothers and fathers now alive , do we share without moral remoteness?" We must share, is the answer.
19 Jul 2012 8:21:19am
"Or maybe the debtors could print enough money to create inflation and reduce the value of the debt that way."
Governments (via their central banks) have been emitting trillions of new money via QE and other means for years and there's been zero inflationary consequences. In fact, they've not emitted nearly enough to match the massive deflationary impact of private debt deleveraging since 2008 and they've been doing it the wrong way (adding to bank reserves instead of spending it into the economy directly).
The real problem is that we acquese to a system that allow such huge levels of PRIVATE debt to arise in the first place because we allow private banks to effectively create money by issuing loans (which create matching deposits, no pre-existing savings are required). We did this so aggregate demand was maintained to keep the economy going in the face of falling wages share of income (from which to spend) but this game ended in 2008.
Since then, rising PUBLIC debt is inevitable if the economic collapse is to be avoided but this is NOT a problem as it's always payable on demand IF it is issued in the national currency of a sovereign nation like the US or here. It IS a problem if a nation divests itself of its currency soveriegnty to an institution over which it has no control (e.g. Europe and the ECB) or ties its currency to gold or something else.
It's a crazy system we have created in light of the alternatives available to us. Collectively we'll be commiting (unecessary) economic suicide if we really do pursue austerity when we actually have the power to fix the problem because we (are supposed to) decide the rules of the game (via Government) and we can control the (non-debt based state) money supply (via our Government controlled central bank).
9.89 m per sec sq:
19 Jul 2012 10:55:28am
But our currency has been privatised by stealth.
This is what Banks as well as Visa, Mastercard, Amex, Paypall etc are doing.
We have allowed the core function of the state to be outsourced.
19 Jul 2012 10:37:26am
Those who have counted on economic growth to get themselves out of debt have missed out. The era of economic growth is over.
Peak oil mate, peak oil. You're living it.
9.89 m per sec sq:
19 Jul 2012 10:51:26am
You can not have infinite growth (economy) in a finite system (earth).
At some point we must accept an end point to growth. Sure there can be "improovement" and "advancement" within an economy, but the scattergun thinking of just "growth" will eventually get us into trouble.
Some people can not, or will not, see this boundary called gravity. Others can, but don't know how we transit to a better way of doing things.
Now, if there was such a thing as anti-gravity, then sure, all bets are off, but until that time I withdrawal my permission to let you gamble with our planet.
19 Jul 2012 12:39:44pm
The wealthy taxpayer is only one being affected by the Austerity drive. Not surprising he or she is liquidating businesses and assets (oops- there goes another 1000 jobs) and moving them to countries where money can be made ....or lending the money to the government because the interest rates are so good!
Simple really - in 10 to 20 years time the desirable places to live will have moved, the government and banks will still be wealthy and the rest of us will be poor or have moved.
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Rose Gold Sizzles
Rose gold is hot! It's sizzling! While this colored gold has been around a very long time, it's never been so trendy. It's turning up on the runway, the red carpet and in fine jewelry stores. And we couldn't be happier, because we love creating pieces in rose gold. It's just so darn pretty
So, what's so special about rose gold?
- It's unique and different. While white and yellow metals are abundant, rose is seen much less and adds a real uniqueness to your look.
- It combines with white and yellow gold for a wonderful tri-color look. A great fit for today's "mix-and-match" fashion trends.
- It's so wonderfully feminine.
Wondering how gold, which is naturally a yellow metal, becomes rose? In a similar fashion to how it becomes white.
Gold in its pure state, which is 24 karat, is a yellow metal. But 24k gold is too soft to create jewelry from. So, additional metal alloys are added to the metal to create a stronger material.
To create white gold, white alloys such as palladium or ruthium are added. To create rose gold, copper is the metal alloy added to the gold. Rose gold is available in a variety of karats with 14k the most popular.
Almost all Sorella jewelry is available in rose gold. Aren't you ready for a little rose?Posted by Sorella

subset: commoncrawl


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Naidu assured the Chief Minister of maximum possible assistance to the state under various schemes, which he said, would be launched soon. Latest News from India News Desk
Both the leaders discussed broad contours of central government's initiatives like building Smart Cities, developing basic infrastructure in 500 identified cities, Housing for All, Development of Cities of Cultural Heritage, etc.
Rao has expressed keen interest in augmenting transport and other infrastructure in cities and towns of Telangana, water supply and sanitation and developing some of the existing cities as smart cities.
Naidu gave a detailed account of various schemes to be launched and said that it was for the state government to prioritise project proposals after assessing the infrastructure status in different cities and towns.
He told Rao that the central government firmly believed in collaborative effort between the Centre and states to address challenges of growing urbanisation.
Naidu and Rao expressed concern over the state of affairs with respect to urban governance in the country and the need to transform urban governance through necessary reforms to make urban local bodies rise to the challenges of rapid urbanisation and convert the same into opportunities.
Naidu said the cities and towns of Telangana performed better than others under JNNURM.
Naidu explained to the Chief Minister that further to the experience of implementation of Jawaharlal Nehru Urban Renewable Mission (JNNURM) which fell short of targets, the central government is keen about selecting cities and towns for inclusion under Smart Cities project based on the reforms so far implemented and the ability of urban local bodies to mobilise resources and take forward required reforms.
Regarding release of funds for Rs 1,600-crore water supply schemes, Naidu clarified that the previous UPA government has wound up JNNURM on March 31, 2014 and did not release any fund for these schemes.
Naidu assured the Chief Minister of maximum possible assistance to the state under various schemes, which he said, would be launched soon.
Latest News from India News Desk


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My new running buddy and I headed to the track on Saturday morning for a workout of uncertain length and intensity. The weather was breezy and delightful. Since I had no idea how far she would run, the track was ideal; regardless of when we stopped we'd be no farther than 200 meters from the car.
We arrived at noon.
Back at the house, Little Bacon spent several minutes carefully selecting her running clothes and insisted on approving my own outfit before we got into the car. Her hair was well thought out. Mine was recently slept upon.
"Which lane do you want to run in?"
"You run in six, I'll run in seven. GO!"
Remember the last time you had this much fun on the track?
Sorry, that was a trick question. Nobody has ever had this much fun on the track.
The first time around, I pointed out and explained what the different lines meant. The second time around, naturally, we raced.
Lining up for a 200:
Taking the lead in a 200, which is easy to do when you start in Lane 5 and finish in Lane 4:
Her perfect form is equal parts preternatural talent and hysterical bliss. It works.
"What's this one for, Dad?"
"A 300. That's three quarters the way around the track. … Because the whole thing is 400, so if the whole way around is 400 then what's three quarters of…"
"Okay, GO!"
She had migrated in to Lane 2 by the time we got around to the finish. I finished in Lane 4, as directed.
We lined up again.
"Baby, wait. That's the finish line. You wouldn't line up there like that. If you want to run a 400 you have to – do you see the next line up there around the curve? That would be for a 400, which, like I said is one time all the way around. Well, it's one time around if you're in Lane 1. That's why the line is up there, because it's longer if you run on the outside of a curve. But you're not in Lane 1 so…"
When I run myself to exhaustion on the track, which happens just about every time I'm there, I still have a mile and a half run back to the house. When five year-old Bacon gets exhausted on the track, she gets picked up and carried to the car.
At the beginning I was keeping count of how many laps we did but started to lose track with all the racing (I think we did 6 or 7). Even though I lost every race, I still had more in the tank at the end. Plus, she cheated a little. So there.


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Once Christmas is over I like to decorate with Winter White.
Yes I love Winter White. So when it comes to decorating my favorite spot in the family room, that's my inspiration. Winter White, it's my little bit of snow that I rarely ever get to see here in the desert. I love a clean but warm look after everything from Christmas is put away. I kept up my wreath, garland and golden twigs from Christmas and just took away that Christmas clutter that always seems to find it's way to my fireplace mantle every year. Now's the perfect time to add a Winter White cover on the throw pillow on the couch and enjoy the season.
How do you usually change your decor after Christmas is put away?


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Illegal Aliens and the Liberal Animal Farm
In the unlikely event that anyone doesn't understand why Obama's Injustice Department has spent the past few years fighting voter ID requirements, this should help answer the question:
Just hours before voters go to the polls in the battleground state of Nevada, a national group has announced it plans to file a complaint regarding illegal immigrants purportedly being allowed to vote.
Allowed to vote? More like strong-armed into voting.
ALIPAC, Americans for Legal Immigration PAC, based in Raleigh, N.C., sent the Nevada secretary of state an email outlining its intention.
"We want to stop the felonious thefts of American elections," says William Gheen, ALIPAC's president.
Gheen points to a commentary published in Sunday's Las Vegas Review Journal. In it, editorial writer Glenn Cook accuses the Culinary Union 226 of knowingly registering illegal immigrants and then pressured them to vote.
Cook quotes an unidentified illegal immigrant who is on the Clark County voter rolls. The person claims a union representative told them they were "in so much trouble" for refusing to vote.
The exploitation of the illegal aliens liberals have been importing to supplant the population of the Southwest shines a spotlight on their attitude toward all of us. Like farm animals, socialist subjects are to subsist in a state of dependence. We are provided with food and shelter, as well as fences. Instead of meat or eggs or milk, the human population is raised for votes. Those who do not vote correctly are replaced by others who will produce the intended yield.
For now these votes are needed to validate the statist power structure. But when our dependence becomes absolute, so will the government's power, so our rulers will be able to dispense with them.
On tips from Bo-Jangles and Wiggins.


text: Candy Washington is a young and talented film and television starlet. Having studied at the prestigious School of Film & Television, located in the heart of New York City, she has acted in nearly a dozen short films and various television guest spots. Candy is also a fashionista in her own right. She publishes a popular fashion blog and attends designer shows.


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#PokemonUltraMoon #PokemonVGC2017
| Professor Plum @ Pokemon showdown |KIK: Puzzle009| Tahlato@Ifunny|
I still can't get over this service event I did with my key club yesterday, it was fun! We went to this family shelter and cleaned it for several hours, and I met so much people. I even met some UC students who helped me and told me the do's and don't's of high school. I really hope I can become even more active next year with key club, and I hope to attend the same event next year.
Wow, I'm surprised I actually managed to convince myself to work on AP homework today that's due on Friday. What's going on with me? This rarely happens! I guess it's because I felt really sleep deprived last week, in fact during school once I felt so tired and I had such a huge migraine that I felt like I was going to pass out.
Well, after four agonising months of waiting, I finally have responses from all five of my uni choices.
Amazingly, all my applications were successful except for Nottingham, on account of me screwing up the interview somewhat (the uni itself was really nice, but the city seemed like a horrible place to live to be honest, so that was kind of a mixed blessing). Falmouth and Royal Holloway, while incredibly desirable places to study, want an A and a B in English and Psychology and at least a Merit 2 (about a B also) in Art, which, frankly speaking, just ain't gonna happen. I'll most likely make my firm and insurance choices Bath Spa and Winchester since they only want 320-340 UCAS points - which equates to me getting a BCC this year. I'll regret not being able to study at Holloway's amazing campus, but their (and my) standards are just too low. Yay for half-arsery.
Was that really it? Will wondered. Was that what they were all doing, looking for someone less different? Was that what he was doing? Rachel was dynamic and thoughtful and focused and caring and different in more ways than he could count, but the whole point of Rachel, as far as Will was concerned, was that she wasn't him. There was a flaw in Katrina's logic, then. This thing about looking for someone less different ... It only really worked, he realised, if you were convinced that being you wasn't so bad in the first place.
- Nick Hornby
#PokemonUltraMoon #PokemonVGC2017
| Professor Plum @ Pokemon showdown |KIK: Puzzle009| Tahlato@Ifunny|
Most of my teachers insist on never setting the due date for Fridays, so I've got a French test, another physics test, a geography test, and a health project due Thursday. And then a math test on Friday... the teachers've been kind of slow going through the curriculum, so now they cram everything. It took 7 months to finish half of the curriculum for science, I can't wait to see how I'll learn all the rest in just 3 months...
Wow, I should've done so much homework today but I just did the homework that's due tomorrow. So much for me bragging about being productive yesterday, haha. Oh well. I have late-start on Wednesday (school starts an hour late! Woohoo!) so I'm thinking of staying up late tomorrow studying and working on AP homework.
Sleep is generally a good thing, especially when facing a 6 hour school day immediately followed by a 5 hour work shift... but I have a research paper that's due in, oh... *looks at watch* about 11 hours and I haven't even started yet! Yaaaaaaaaaay...
First term is nearly over, the perfect to end it is to have a chemistry test -_-
I have claimed
I really need to stop second guessing myself. I took a quiz today, and it turns out I got this one question right the first time, but I erased it and put something else.
Sitting here in class waiting for the guitar model to render out so I can turn it in. I didn't bevel it like I should've so its edges aren't as round as they should be, but I'm just all "F*** it" because it was a bit of a pain trying to figure out how to model the stupid thing. Meanwhile, the textures aren't showing up correctly (but it's not glitchy), so I don't know what the problem is there, whether it's the size or not, I don't know. Class is almost over anyway, so I'm just going to turn it in the way it is.
I honestly find it ironic how I'm doing much better in Visual FX II (in which I struggled with last term with Visual FX I), and yet for some reason I'm pretty much at a "C" in 3D Modelling, and I'd like to get into animation. I'm not sure if it's because Cinema 4D has just thrown me off or what.
And I just realized the camera angle is a little wonky, but I'm not rendering it out again. I'm done with this project, I'm going onto the chessboard project.
Winner of Best Non-Pokémon Fic of 2016 in the Shipping OscarsForsaken: Chapter 20 - 11/17/14 / Encryption: Chapter 9 - 11/26/17 / Handle with Care: Chapter 11 - 1/10/18
It's finally our summer break here!
Things turn out different this sem. and worst!. But still I don't feel like I am taking a break out of the University.
✿If I have any worth, it is to live my LIFE for GOD✿
Semi Art Site:
Pixiv✿ PS Discord✿Join our Pokemon Discord:PokeToku!
I am a Christian, and not ashamed to admit it! Copy and paste this if you are too.
"For God so loveth the world, that he hath given his only son, that none that believe in him, should perish: but should have everlasting life." (John 3:16)
My Animelist
There's this group of persons (not an error) who purposely act unintelligent and annoying.
This is a signature.
Just took my programing mid term today. Easy. On an even happier note, my two week spring vacation starts today. Envy me.
I've been on away from Pokemon for a while since the termination of the Nintendo Wifi Connection. In the mean time, I'll be replaying Yellow, Crystal and Emerald. Hit me up if you're a classics junky, or if you need some help within these games
finally,after an easter egg hunt,turning in an essay,wataching the wave movie(don't ask),i'm on my spring break,just finally
do the shuckle sweep
white 2 champion/ white champion/second white 2 game champion/3rd white 2 champion/4th planned white 2 champion
/ /
credit to froststorm
The other day I got really annoyed and stressed over the computer network assignment. I passed one of the criteria's ages ago, but then I was told to add more to it, even though I'd already passed it. Meaning I couldn't get the help I needed on the criteria I was actually stuck on. I got very lucky, however, teacher helped me out a bit later on. Not too sure if this means I will fall behind a little bit on E-Commerce, but I'm doing well on that one so it shouldn't be too hard I guess.
Easter break has started for me now. Stress free from college for two weeks. I think I need it.
Has anyone ever taken the AP Bio exam? It's only a month away and I don't feel prepared because my teacher is basically teaching it as a review of regular biology instead of as an AP class
Hey folks,
I'm an instructor at a university. I teach on a weekly basis as a graduate student while I write my thesis. I figured I'd give you some advice for college. (If you're still in high school, then some of this applies).
First, always give the instructor a heads up if you're going to be absent on a more-important-than-usual day (every day should be considered important, but obviously they're not). This counts for tests or a critical lecture. Sending an email 3 hours or days after the fact is really rude. I like my students to give me a heads up far in advance if the absence is planned and then a reminder right before the date. It helps us plan for the class and to give you better instruction if needed. I plan room in my syllabus for one absence so it's not necessary for you to message us every time you're sick, but if there's some ongoing issue, then let us know (you don't have to go into detail about it).
Second, sending emails at 1 in the morning is not acceptable. You have to respect our time because we do have lives outside of the classroom, too. This fares similarly to emailing us an hour before a planned meeting saying you can't be there... or not showing up for a meeting at all.
Lastly, we are willing to work with you. This goes for almost every instructor; if they don't stay to talk with you after class or give you clear advice and guidance, then they're probably not a good teacher. I will sit down with my students and walk them through what they don't understand until they get it. This doesn't mean we will hold your hands, but it does mean that we care about your success.
I hope that helps for those that are in college, plan to go to college, or possibly in high school.
3DS Name: Elliott
Check out my trade shop with hundreds of Shinies and Events!
I'm worried because I looked at some practice tests and I don't know the specific names for enzymes and amino acids and things like that. I was confused on the extended responses too because our labs aren't as organized as they should be.


text: Can anyone see Ben Lomond? Home › Forum › Bike Forum › Can anyone see Ben Lomond? Viewing 11 posts - 1 through 11 (of 11 total) Can anyone see Ben Lomond? devsMember I'm supposed to be riding it this weekend and wondered if the snow has gone that far south? Does it look possible? Posted 6 years ago StirlingCrispinSubscriber Snow on Dumyat and small flakes lying down at sea level in Stirling. Posted 6 years ago TandemJeremyMember Nearest traffic camera I can see is the rest and be thankful which is not that far away – lots of snow http://trafficscotland.org/lev/# Posted 6 years ago StirlingCrispinSubscriber And if no one has posted up a definitive answer by 10am I'll wander to the end of the road for a look. Working from home today so can only see Dumyat, Stirling Castle and the Wally Monny from the window 8) Posted 6 years ago 2tyredMember Campsies were covered in snow this morning – too overcast to see Ben Lomond, but its a safe bet it'll be white from the top to fairly far down at the moment! Posted 6 years ago devsMember Hmmm. We may be denied. I suspected this winter had a sting in its tail after we rode 44kms in the hills the other day in shorts and T-shirts and catching the sun on my arms and legs! Posted 6 years ago fergalMember forcast for more snow thursday. Posted 6 years ago StirlingCrispinSubscriber Popped out at lunchtime. Ben Ledi has a good covering. Ben Lomond wasn't visible. Dumyat is snow free again. Posted 6 years ago franciscobegbieMember Snow on the Kilpatrick hills this morning, so I reckon you might need your skis up on Ben Lomond this weekend. I get a good view of it on the way home, visibility permitting. Posted 6 years ago lucienMember What does he look like? Posted 6 years ago gariMember Drove past it this morning, quite a bit of snow into the treeline, well below the saddle etc. I was up it on Sun and there is still a few patches of snow high up. I imagine it would be unridable to be honest and its raining/sleeting outside now(inveraray) so imagine it's snow above the treeline. Gari Posted 6 years ago Viewing 11 posts - 1 through 11 (of 11 total) The topic 'Can anyone see Ben Lomond?' is closed to new replies.


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Launched over 50 years ago, the Fendi Baguette remains a style icon that's just as coveted as ever. The purse has been reworked time and time again with different materials, colors, embellishments and now Fendi's myBaguette app gives you the chance to create a Baguette of your own design.
With the app, you're able to apply brushstrokes, mix colors and create a masterpiece that's right out of your own imagination. For the launch of the app, Fendi invited artists like Sylvie Fleury, Francesco Vezzoli and André Saraiva to create their own takes on the Baguette, which can be viewed in the myBaguette Art Gallery along with other user-made designs. Fendi will also dole out a 'Baguette of the month' award for the best bag designs in the community.
Iconic Purse Painter Apps
More Stats +/-
Neo-Tribal Editorials
Expressive Accessory Editorials
Domestic Horror Movie Editorials
Geometric Charity Handbags
Iconic Handbag Illustrations
The myBaguette App Lets You Digitally Design Your Own Fendi Baguette
- By: Laura McQuarrieJun 10, 2014
References: itunes.apple & style
References: itunes.apple & style


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gemgossip | 2 Comments |
Triple V Knuckle Ring by Julia Cohen
Wednesday, August 3, 2011 at 7:06AM
I think I may have just canceled the house I just bought in the likes of this. The outrageous Triple V Knuckle ring by Julia Cohen, available at Broken English. Price: $10k Comes in any metal.


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Who's wearing short shorts? | USA NOW video
Shannon Rae Green hosts USA NOW for March 20th, covering people wearing shorts in the cold, President Obama's pick for the Final Four, and Lady Liberty opening for the 4th of July. USA TODAY, USA NOW, Kaveh Rezaei,


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Masco Corporation delivered a robust first quarter earnings report, with sales and income both demonstrating strong forward momentum.
Net sales for the three months ended March 31 were $1.97 billion, up from $1.88 billion in the first quarter of 2013.
The company attributed its top-line growth mainly to Plumbing Products, Installation and Other Services, as well as Other Specialty Products. International sales were also up in Europe.
Meanwhile, net income came in at $74 million, compared to $53 million in the same year-ago period.
"It is our belief that new home construction will show continued growth in 2014, repair and remodel activity will grow modestly, and big ticket items will continue to show improvement," said president and CEO Keith Allman. "As we move through the year, we will continue to focus on the customer and execute against our priorities by improving our enterprise leverage, driving a high performance culture and focusing on continuous improvement in all we do."


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We are happy to announce that Richard Hacker, a long time Algonkian Author Salon member, has been signed by AEI Films and Books/Story Merchant in October 2014 for representation to major publishers and possible film production. This was made possible through diligent work with AAS editors and peers. Congrats to all involved!
Eighteen year old Ethan Adlar inherits a fountain pen and a destiny from
his father, Thomas. Unknown to Ethan, Thomas led a secret alchemist
league fighting an ancient war across the centuries to protect history
from the future.
- THE FIVE PENS OF JOHANNES by Richard Hacker
A Dialogue With Fantasy Writer Richard Hacker
holds an MA and a Certificate in Genre Fiction from the University of
Washington. His novel won top awards in the Science Fiction category at
the 2011 Writer's League of Texas (WLT) literary contest, and he is a
member of the Pacific Northwest Writers Association.
1. What inspired you to write your story? What do you love about the genre?
I woke up at three in the morning thinking about a pen that enables you
to write down the name of someone from the past, and by doing so, enter
into that
person's consciousness. What inspired the idea? I'm not altogether sure.
I do love fountain pens. In our high tech world a fountain pen offers a
visceral connection to the written word. The ritual of pulling ink into
a chamber, stains on the fingers, the flow of fluid onto a page feel
elemental to me. Not that I'd write a novel with a fountain pen. I'm
definitely a digital guy, but fountain pens do have a romance about
them. With a pen as a core idea, I did some research in alchemy,
fabricating a believable fantasy of an ink, when matched to a specific
alloy nib, moves a user's consciousness into the name being written. I
love the notion that an Inker uses a person's name to enter their
consciousness. Names have always been very powerful. In some religions,
believers may not say the name of their god because the very act of
naming assumes a power over that which has been named.
My love of the fantasy genre informs how I have conceived THE FIVE PENS
OF JOHANNES. I tend to gravitate toward a form of fantasy that holds
reality very close. For example, In ONE HUNDRED YEARS OF SOLITUDE,
Gabriel Garcia Marquez weaves in the dead as if they are living in the
story's present, creating a magical context to his storytelling. I love
stories like THE SIXTH SENSE, JACOB'S LADDER, INCEPTION, because they
play with our sense of what is real and what is imagined, what is
conscious awareness and what is a dream state. My characters shift from
present to past, but also from one time matrix reality to another in a
mix of past oriented historical fiction and future focused speculative
fiction. Where those worlds intersect and collide provide fertile ground
for conflict.
2. Prior to being included in the Author Salon Literary Showcase, how
did your project and your writing evolve here at Author Salon? What did
you learn?
I came to Author Salon with a completed first draft of my novel and a
sense that I had a solid concept providing a foundation for my
storytelling. At first, I admit to some apprehension about getting
online with a group of strangers and entrusting my work with them. To my
great delight, I found a group of skilled, professional writers as
committed to their art as I am to mine. We initially had to work through
"being nice" which didn't get us anywhere. I think we all recognize the
power of colleagues speaking their truth and the professionalism of
opening ourselves up to hear that truth. Now I'm confident my peers tell
it like it is and I know I do the same for them. We are committed to
the success of each other and not willing to let anything slide.
So what did I learn? Compliments are nice, but truth challenges you to
reach beyond yourself. Before I joined Author Salon I wanted to write
novels and be read. Now I want to write best best damn novel on the
planet and be read by everyone. I feel the challenge to push myself
beyond average, beyond good, reaching for a level of excellence in what
I'm creating. The critique process provides huge amounts of valuable,
usable feedback to refine the manuscript. And I've found critiquing the
work of others has heightened my own ability to evaluate plot,
structure and all of the many components making up a work of fiction.
Finally, I have found some kindred spirits in my peer group. People
whose opinions I highly value and who I sense want as much success for
me as I do for them.
THE FIVE PENS OF JOHANNES by Richard Hacker Sought by Publishers and Agents
Congrats again, Richard. What a great story you have here. Your patience to keep improving on what was already something special really helped slow me down with my own work and realize the intensity needed for each and every scene, paragraph, sentence, word, etc.


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Jeremy Renner Says Hawkeye Might Be in 'Captain America 3'
- By
- 92 Comments
Jeremy Renner's Hawkeye has been something of a underutilized quantity in Marvel's Avengers cinematic universe. A tease appearance in Thor; a supporting hero/villain role in Avengers… Marvel's' iconic archer has been treated as second tier while virtually every one of his co-stars have been given an expanded spotlight.
After Renner himself lamented the lack of onscreen time for Hawkeye, it was revealed that the character will get more to do in The Avengers: Age of Ultron. Yet and still, even if Hawkeye does play a bigger role in Avengers 2, that won't likely amount to a whole lot, overall; Age of Ultron is still a team ensemble film – and one with more new characters to service than the first film had. Compared to such demands, how much Hawkeye do you really expect to get?
No, it seems that solo and spinoff projects are where Hawkeye could realistically get more time to shine – but don't hope for a Hawkeye solo film, because that isn't happening. However, like his fellow (former) S.H.I.E.L.D. agents – Black Widow (Scarlett Johansson), Maria Hill (Cobie Smulders) and Nick Fury (Samuel L. Jackson) – Hawkeye could conceivably be a strong supporting character in another Marvel solo film – and it sounds like that could very well be the plan.
While in an interview with Collider, Jeremy Renner let the following tidbit of information drop in regards to Hawkeye's future in the MCU:
"There are rumblings of Captain America 3. I don't know what's going to happen there. I've got to find the time, man (laughs). I'm trying to stay home and I can't."
Considering his prominence in both Marvel Comics, Marvel animation, and his long time as a player in the cinematic universe, it really is crazy that we've seen so little of Hawkeye. Even when present, we've seen so little of the character's trademark sarcasm and badassery; he's been more of a ballistics tool than an actual character, all things being honest.
Captain America: The Winter Soldier took some underutilized players from Avengers (Cap, Fury, Hill) and fleshed them out into more dynamic and downright cool characters by way of a more grounded espionage thriller. If Renner is right about Hawkeye's future, then Captain America 3 could very well do the same for his character; after all, Hawkeye looks more sensible fighting alongside enhanced humans and elite agents than he does Gamma monsters, Thunder Gods and killer Robots.
The bottom line is: Hawkeye needs something of a meaty story arc – in whichever film we get him in. Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. already snagged Mockingbird (a character who has major connections to Hawkeye), so there's little chance of that storyline playing out onscreen; that is, unless Renner is planning a trip to TV. Even Black Widow is rumored to have a full date card in Avengers 2 – and her and Hawkeye's connection is about the only development the purple archer has had to this point. The Loki mind-control stuff could still be a factor, but how enticing would that be?
It's literally a question mark when it comes to where this character can go – or if he can still fit into an increasingly super-powered MCU – or if the character even has enough lure on his own to compete with likes of RDJ or Rocket Raccoon. Then again, maybe that's the hook right there: Hawkeye, a former top-of-the-food-chain elite agent, learning how to find his place in a world of Marvels.
Whatever the case, we know Captain America 3's story will take place years after Winter Soldier, and will still be focused on the "complex" relationship between Steve Rogers (Chris Evans) and Bucky Barnes (Sebastian Stan). With the fate of Chris Evans' Cap still uncertain, Hawkeye could be onboard for one of the bumpiest rides in MCU history if he's in Cap 3; not to mention, a lot of fans would probably get a kick out of watching The Hawk go bullet-to-arrow with Frank Grillo's Crossbones. Fingers crossed.
The Avengers: Age of Ultron will be in theaters on May 1, 2015.
Captain America 3 will be in theaters May 6, 2016.
Source: Collider
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