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Watch Rebirth Full Series Streaming
sv-teichert.de, Rebirth Astounding! The full film "Rebirth After making a pact with Jequitibá, José Inocêncio becomes a mythical figure, known as the most successful cocoa farmer in the region. While still young, he wins the heart of Maria Santa. Their intense passion results in four children: José Augusto, José Bento, José Venâncio, and the youngest, João Pedro, who never had the opportunity to know his mother, as she dies while giving birth to him. This tragedy fuels José Inocêncio's anger, blaming João Pedro for the loss of his great love. Throughout their lives, indifference and resentment mark the relationship between the father and his youngest son. As if the past weren't enough, years later, the arrival of the mysterious Mariana puts all these emotions to the test when both father and son fall in love with the same woman. This situation reawakens feelings that were either dormant or previously unknown to them." adds an impressive $31 million to its domestic earnings in its second week. Notably, this total surpasses that of any other full film in the domestic box office. Although the weekend figures show a 66% decline from the first week, this drop aligns with the patterns seen in major blockbuster hits from franchises like Marvel, DC, and Star Wars. Rebirth film, featuring Taylor Swift, has now accumulated an estimated $129.8 million in the domestic box office. In its second weekend, Rebirth film continued to dominate the domestic box office, securing an additional $31 million and bringing its total to $129.8 million. This places it ahead of Martin Scorsese's "Rebirth," which earned a respectable $23 million in its debut weekend. The full pic's success extends beyond the domestic market, with a global tally of $164.78 million. "Rebirth" takes the second spot internationally with $21 million, adding to its total global earnings of $44 million. Swift's film has broken several records, becoming the first full film to surpass $100 million domestically and the first independently released film in a decade to achieve this milestone within two weekends. The film's performance has injected much-needed vitality into the fourth quarter of the year, marked by Hollywood labor strikes.
Notably, Rebirth full film boasts the widest domestic release for a full film, opening in over 3,850 locations. Its opening weekend surpassed the previous record held by Miley Cyrus' "Best of Both Worlds full" from 2008. Industry analysts attribute the film's success to innovative thinking and its ability to fill a gap in the movie release calendar.The film's unique release strategy, including Thursday's ticket sales of just under $6 million, contributed to it crossing the $100 million mark in the U.S. and Canada. AMC, the film's distributor, is expected to update international figures, and if the film exceeds $262.5 million by November, it will become the highest-grossing global full movie, surpassing "Michael Jackson's This Is It" from 2009. Despite being a non-traditional release, the success of "Rebirth" has significantly boosted the October movie marketplace, demonstrating how unconventional content can lead to unexpected outcomes and enhance the bottom line. As for the option to download or watch the full movie online for free, it's emphasized that viewers should pay for the content they wish to consume online and avoid illegal means. The film is not currently available on popular streaming platforms like Netflix, Hulu, or Amazon Prime. The article also provides information on the film's plot and its ensemble cast, highlighting its significance in expanding the DC Universe. The article also delves into the broader context of the movie landscape, noting the quiet release corridor and how "Rebirth" has injected a substantial boost of around $130 million overall into the October movie marketplace. Industry experts attribute this success to the film's non-traditional approach and its ability to fill quieter spots on the movie release calendar.
The piece touches on the anticipation around "Rebirth," describing it as a much-welcomed addition to the October movie marketplace. It emphasizes the film's unique qualities, praising its unexpected outcomes and bottom-line enhancement through outside-of-the-box thinking and innovation. Additionally, the article addresses the audience's eagerness to watch "Rebirth" online for free and discusses the current unavailability of the movie on popular streaming platforms. It also advises against illegal means of accessing the content and suggests waiting for authorized platforms to release the movie. The concluding part of the article provides a detailed list of popular streaming services, such as Netflix, Hulu, Amazon Prime, Crunchyroll, and others, along with the current status of "Rebirth" on these platforms. The piece emphasizes that services like Funimation, Netflix, and Crunchyroll may eventually acquire the rights to distribute the film, but as of now, there are no authorized platforms offering "Rebirth" for free. The article also includes related searches, such as people looking for the full movie, its availability on specific streaming platforms, and inquiries about the movie's plot and cast. It highlights the anticipation surrounding the film's release and its potential impact on the box office and the DC Universe.
Just seconds ago, the Rebirth full film has contributed an impressive $31 million to its domestic earnings in its second week in theaters, marking the highest weekend total for any full film at the domestic box office. Despite a 66% drop from its first weekend, a trend in line with major hits from Marvel, DC, and Star Wars, Rebirth film has now amassed an estimated $129.8 million in the domestic box office. The box office rankings confirm Rebirth as the leader with $31 million, while "Rebirth" made a respectable debut with $23 million. Swift's full film continues to break records, notably as the first full film to surpass $100 million domestically, making it the highest-grossing independently released film in a decade, funded entirely by Swift herself. Internationally, Martin Scorsese's "Rebirth" has earned $21 million, outperforming Swift's "Rebirth," which added $10.5 million in its second weekend. While Swift's full extravaganza has reached a commendable $164.78 million globally, "Flower Moon" secured $44 million worldwide. The UK emerged as the top market for "Flower Moon," contributing $3 million, with strong performances in France, Germany, Australia, and Spain.
Rebirth ongoing success with Rebirth film is evident as it achieved a remarkable $31 million in its second weekend, maintaining a strong position despite a 66% decline comparable to major blockbuster franchises. Swifties showed their continued support, propelling the film to cross the $100 million mark in the U.S. and Canada. Rebirth film's total domestic earnings are estimated at $129.8 million, and international figures from AMC are eagerly awaited. If the film surpasses $262.5 million by November, it could become the highest-grossing global full movie ever, surpassing "Michael Jackson's This Is It" from 2009. In the context of Hollywood's labor strikes impacting the fourth quarter, Shawn Robbins, chief media analyst at BoxOffice.com, acknowledges Rebirth film's ability to draw significant foot traffic and break full movie records. Paul Dergarabedian, senior media analyst at Comscore, applauds the film as a non-traditional release, injecting a much-needed $130 million boost into the October movie marketplace.
Where to Watch Rebirth?
Currently, there are no online platforms with the rights to stream Rebirth, as MAPPA has opted for an exclusive theater release due to the movie's substantial success. The studio aims to maximize revenue, and online streaming could potentially impact profits negatively rather than enhance them. Services like Funimation, Netflix, and Crunchyroll are likely candidates to acquire the rights to Rebirth in the future. However, as of now, no authorized services offer Rebirth for free. Fans can anticipate its availability on streaming platforms after its theatrical run.
Is Rebirth on Netflix?
No, Rebirth is not available on Netflix. While Netflix boasts an extensive catalog of shows and movies, 'Rebirth' is not part of it. Viewers are encouraged to explore other dark fantasy films like 'The Witcher: Nightmare of the Wolf' on Netflix.
Is Rebirth on Crunchyroll?
Yes, Crunchyroll, along with Funimation, has acquired the rights to Rebirth for distribution in North America. Subscribers can look forward to watching the movie on these platforms in the coming months. Additionally, dark fantasy enthusiasts can explore shows like 'Jujutsu Kaisen' on Crunchyroll.
Is Rebirth on Hulu?
No, 'Rebirth' is not available on Hulu. Subscribers to Hulu can enjoy alternative content like 'Afro Samurai Resurrection' or 'Ninja Scroll' within the platform.
Is Rebirth on Amazon Prime?
Rebirth is currently not part of Amazon Prime's catalog. However, the film might become available on the platform as video-on-demand in the coming months. Meanwhile, viewers interested in fantasy movies can explore options on Amazon Prime's official website, such as the original show 'Dororo.'
When Will Rebirth Be on Disney+?
Rebirth, the latest installment in the franchise, is scheduled to arrive on Disney+ on July 8th. The movie promises excitement with plenty of action and adventure. Viewers eager to watch it on Disney+ should mark this date for its availability on the streaming service.
Is Rebirth on Funimation?
While it is not currently available on Funimation, there's a possibility that Rebirth may be included in its catalog in the near future. In the meantime, those seeking similar content can explore 'Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Mugen Train.'
Rebirth Online In The US?
For viewers in the US, several options are available to watch Rebirth online. Services like Netflix, Hulu, and Amazon Prime Video offer the movie for streaming. Additionally, viewers can rent or buy the movie on platforms like iTunes or Google Play, or use on-demand services and apps available on their TV or devices, especially if they have cable subscriptions.
What is Rebirth About?
Rebirth features an ensemble cast, including Florence Pugh, Harry Styles, Wilde Gemma Chan, KiKi Layne, Nick Kroll, and Chris Pine. The film is set in a 2250s company town called Victory, an experimental community for men working on a top-secret project. As cracks in the seemingly perfect paradise emerge, the protagonist, Alice, begins to question the sinister secrets beneath the surface, leading to a suspenseful exploration of her idyllic life.
What is the story of Rebirth?
Set in the 2250s, Rebirth revolves around Alice and Jack, residents of Victory, an idealized company town. In this experimental community, men work on a top-secret project while their wives enjoy the luxuries of a seemingly perfect paradise. However, as Alice's idyllic life reveals cracks, exposing something sinister, she starts questioning her existence in Victory. In ancient Kahndaq, Teth Adam acquires the almighty powers of the gods, becoming Rebirth. After using these powers for vengeance, he is imprisoned. Nearly 5,000 years later, Rebirth reemerges as a myth and legend. Now free, his form of justice, born out of rage, is challenged by modern-day heroes forming the Justice Society, including Hawkman, Dr. Fate, Atom Smasher, and Cyclone.
Production companies: Warner Bros Pictures
Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson's superhero debut in Rebirth marks the beginning of a new era for the DC Extended Universe. Rebirth introduces five new superheroes—Hawkman, Atom Smasher, Cyclone, and Doctor Fate—who form the Justice Society. The film acknowledges existing DC characters like Batman, Superman, Wonder Woman, and the Flash, expanding and resetting the DC Universe.
Is Rebirth Available On Hulu?
No, Rebirth is not available on Hulu. The series is not offered for free on Hulu, and viewers cannot access its episodes through the platform. To watch Rebirth, viewers may need to subscribe to cable or satellite TV services that include the MTV channel.
Is Rebirth on Disney Plus?
As of now, Rebirth is not available on Disney Plus. The film is not expected to release on Disney Plus until late December at the earliest. While Disney eventually releases its films on Disney Plus, major releases typically arrive on the platform 45-60 days after their theatrical release.
Rebirth Box Office Updates:
Rebirth opened to $150 million internationally, outpacing the first film by 4% in like-for-like comparisons. The global cume stands at $330 million, with questions about reaching $1 billion worldwide. Despite challenges in China and Russia, Rebirth's positive reception suggests it could surpass $500 million domestically and another $500 million internationally.
How to Watch Rebirth Online:
Viewers can watch Rebirth online through various platforms. Several streaming services, including 123Movies, offer the movie for online viewing. Additionally, it can be watched on Netflix, Hulu, or Amazon Prime Video. The film is available for download on YIFY, providing an alternative for those who prefer offline viewing.
Hulu and Disney Plus Availability:
Rebirth is not available on Hulu, and there is no indication of it being offered on Disney Plus until late December. While Disney eventually releases films on Disney Plus, major releases typically take 45-60 days to appear on the platform after their theatrical release.
Box Office Analysis:
In its fourth weekend, Rebirth secured second place with $86 million, maintaining steady numbers despite new blockbuster competition. The film has accumulated a domestic cume of $151 million, with a worldwide total of $352 million. Despite a $200 million budget, Rebirth remains the highest-grossing film since Rebirth, with expectations of being overtaken by Wakanda Forever soon.
Rebirth's Durable Performance: Rebirth, with a domestic cume of $565 million, has proven to be durable and successful for adult audiences. The film's ability to maintain strong numbers and positive reviews positions it as one of the bright spots in a challenging year for films targeting adult viewers.
Rebirth's Seventh Weekend: In its seventh weekend, Rebirth experienced a 42% drop, securing $23 million. While this marked the film's biggest weekend drop, its domestic cume stands at $103 million, with a global cume of $210 million. The low-budget horror film has exceeded expectations, providing a significant return on investment.Rebirth Full Movie is an activity pressed, exciting film that is set to enrapture crowds around the world. With its grasping storyline, staggering visuals, and gifted cast, it vows to be an extraordinary true to life experience. As the expectation fabricates, fans are enthusiastically hanging tight for the arrival of Rebirth Full Movie. This exceptionally expected film is supposed to break film industry records and become a blockbuster hit. With its drawing in plot, amazing activity groupings, and convincing characters, Rebirth Full Movie has every one of the components that make for an astonishing and engaging film insight. Prepare to leave on a legendary excursion as Rebirth Full Movie takes you on an exhilarating ride through a universe of superheroes, bad guys, and stunning embellishments. Whether you love the comics or basically love a decent superhuman film, Rebirth Full Movie is a must-watch that will leave you as eager and anxious as can be. So write in your schedules and prepare to be floored by the realistic work of art that Rebirth. Try not to pass up this staggering film occasion! In spite of the fact that it was delivered online to stream on Peacock, "Rebirth Full Movie" beat the end of the week film industry with an exceptionally astounding and record-breaking $130.5 million overall take. The thriller beat down juggernauts like the "Taylor Quick: The Times Visit" show film and Martin Scorsese's period show "Rebirth Full Movie." Presently Rebirth accessible to stream? Is watching Rebirth Full Movie on Disney Additionally, HBO Max, Netflix, or Amazon Prime? Indeed, we have tracked down a dedicated real time choice/administration. A 1950s housewife residing with her significant other in an idealistic trial local area starts to stress that his exciting organization could be concealing upsetting mysteries. On the off chance that you honestly love the comics, you won't have any desire to miss this one! The storyline follows Rebirth as he attempts to find his direction home in the wake of being abandoned on an outsider Rebirth Full Movie. Rebirth is most certainly an Rebirth Full Movie film you would rather not miss with staggering visuals and an activity pressed plot! In addition, Rebirth Full Movie web based streaming is accessible on our site. Rebirth Full Movie online is free, which incorporates streaming choices like 123movies, Reddit, or Television programs from HBO Max or Netflix! Rebirth Full Movie Delivery in the US Rebirth hits theaters on November 9, 2023. Passes to see the film at your nearby cinema are accessible internet based here. The film is being delivered in a wide delivery so you can watch it face to face. Instructions to Watch 'Rebirth Full Movie' (2023) Free Web-based At Home Discharge on a stage that offers a free preliminary. Our perusers to constantly pay for the substance they wish to consume on the web and shun utilizing unlawful means. Where to Watch Rebirth Full Movie? There are at present no stages that reserve the privileges to Watch Rebirth Film On the web. MAPPA has chosen to air the film just in theaters since it has been an enormous achievement. The studio, then again, doesn't wish to redirect income Streaming the film would slice the benefits, as opposed to increment them. Accordingly, no web-based features are approved to offer Rebirth Full Movie Film free of charge. The film would, nonetheless, certainly be gained by administrations like Funimation , Netflix,and Crunchyroll. As a last thought, which of these outlets will probably disperse the film around the world? Prepare for an amazing film insight at Exhibit Film Warwick! Be among quick to observe the stunning display of Rebirth. Write in your schedules and plan for an extraordinary realistic excursion. Additionally, don't miss our assortment of other Wonder films accessible for nothing on the web. Find your ideal Wonder fix and go along with us for a unimaginable time frame!


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The Siege of Gibeon. 1Now when Adonizedek, king of Jerusalem, heard that Joshua had captured Ai and put it under the ban, and had done to that city and its king as he had done to Jericho and its king,a and that the inhabitants of Gibeon had made their peace with Israel, remaining among them, 2there was great fear abroad, because Gibeon was a great city, like one of the royal cities, greater even than Ai, and all its men were warriors. 3So Adonizedek, king of Jerusalem, sent to Hoham, king of Hebron, Piram, king of Jarmuth, Japhia, king of Lachish, and Debir, king of Eglon, with this message: 4"Come and help me attack Gibeon, for it has made peace with Joshua and the Israelites."b 5The five Amorite kings, of Jerusalem, Hebron, Jarmuth, Lachish, and Eglon,* gathered with all their forces, and marched against Gibeon to make war on it. 6Thereupon, the Gibeonites sent an appeal to Joshua in his camp at Gilgal: "Do not abandon your servants. Come up here quickly and save us. Help us, because all the Amorite kings of the mountain country have joined together against us."c
Joshua's Victory. 7So Joshua marched up from Gilgal with all his army and all his warriors. 8The LORD said to Joshua: Do not fear them, for I have delivered them into your power. Not one of them will be able to withstand you. 9After an all-night march from Gilgal, Joshua made a surprise attack upon them, 10and the LORD threw them into disorder before Israel. The Israelites inflicted a great slaughter on them at Gibeon and pursued them down the Beth-horon slope, attacking them as far as Azekah and Makkedah.
11While they fled before Israel along the descent of Beth-horon, the LORD hurled great stones from the heavens* above them all the way to Azekah, killing many.d More died from these hailstones than the Israelites killed with the sword. 12It was then, when the LORD delivered up the Amorites to the Israelites, that Joshua prayed to the LORD, and said in the presence of Israel:
Sun, stand still at Gibeon,
Moon, in the valley of Aijalon!
13The sun stood still,
the moon stayed,
while the nation took vengeance on its foes.e
This is recorded* in the Book of Jashar. The sun halted halfway across the heavens; not for an entire day did it press on. 14Never before or since was there a day like this, when the LORD obeyed the voice of a man; for the LORD fought for Israel. 15Then Joshua and all Israel returned to the camp at Gilgal.
Execution of Amorite Kings. 16The five kings who had fled hid in the cave at Makkedah. 17When Joshua was told, "The five kings have been found, hiding in the cave at Makkedah," 18he said, "Roll large stones to the mouth of the cave and post guards over it. 19But do not remain there yourselves. Pursue your enemies, and harry them in the rear. Do not allow them to reach their cities, for the LORD, your God, has delivered them into your power."
20Once Joshua and the Israelites had finally inflicted the last blows in this very great slaughter, and the survivors had escaped from them into the fortified cities, 21all the army returned to Joshua and the camp at Makkedah in victory; no one uttered a sound against the Israelites. 22Then Joshua said, "Open the mouth of the cave and bring me those five kings from the cave." 23They did so; they brought out to him from the cave the five kings, of Jerusalem, Hebron, Jarmuth, Lachish, and Eglon. 24When they brought the five kings out to Joshua, he summoned all the army of Israel and said to the commanders of the soldiers who had marched with him, "Come forward and put your feet on the necks of these kings." They came forward and put their feet upon their necks. 25f Then Joshua said to them, "Do not be afraid or dismayed, be firm and steadfast. This is what the LORD will do to all the enemies against whom you fight." 26g Thereupon Joshua struck and killed the kings, and hanged them on five trees, where they remained hanging until evening. 27At sunset Joshua commanded that they be taken down from the trees and be thrown into the cave where they had hidden; over the mouth of the cave large stones were placed, which remain until this very day.
Conquest of Southern Canaan. 28h Makkedah, too, Joshua captured and put to the sword at that time. He put the city, its king, and every person in it under the ban, leaving no survivors. Thus he did to the king of Makkedah what he had done to the king of Jericho. 29Joshua then passed on with all Israel from Makkedah to Libnah, and attacked it, 30and the LORD delivered it, with its king, into the power of Israel. He put it to the sword with every person there, leaving no survivors. Thus he did to its king what he had done to the king of Jericho. 31Joshua next passed on with all Israel from Libnah to Lachish, where they set up a camp during the attack. 32The LORD delivered Lachish into the power of Israel, so that on the second day Joshua captured it and put it to the sword with every person in it, just as he had done to Libnah. 33At that time Horam, king of Gezer, came up to help Lachish, but Joshua defeated him and his people, leaving him no survivors. 34From Lachish, Joshua passed on with all Israel to Eglon; encamping near it, they attacked it 35and captured it the same day, putting it to the sword. On that day he put under the ban every person in it, just as he had done at Lachish. 36From Eglon, Joshua went up with all Israel to Hebron, which they attacked 37and captured. They put it to the sword with its king, all its cities, and every person there, leaving no survivors, just as Joshua had done to Eglon. He put it under the ban and every person in it. 38Then Joshua and all Israel turned back to Debir and attacked it, 39capturing it with its king and all its cities. They put them to the sword and put under the ban every person in it, leaving no survivors. Thus he did to Debir and its king what he had done to Hebron, as well as to Libnah and its king.
40i Joshua conquered the entire land; the mountain regions, the Negeb, the Shephelah, and the mountain slopes, with all their kings. He left no survivors, but put under the ban every living being, just as the LORD, the God of Israel, had commanded. 41Joshua conquered them from Kadesh-barnea to Gaza, and all the land of Goshen* to Gibeon. 42All these kings and their lands Joshua captured all at once, for the LORD, the God of Israel, fought for Israel. 43Thereupon Joshua with all Israel returned to the camp at Gilgal.
* [10:5] Hebron…Eglon: these four cities were to the south and southwest of Jerusalem.
* [10:11] Great stones from the heavens: the hailstones mentioned in the next sentence.
* [10:13] This is recorded: the reference is to the preceding poetic passage. Evidently the Book of Jashar, like the Book of the Wars of the Lord (Nm 21:14), recounted in epic style the exploits of Israel's early heroes. The sun halted: lit., "the sun stood"; this obscure passage may suppose a longer than natural day caused when the sun stopped moving across the sky, or it may refer to the sun stopping its light-giving function, perhaps through an eclipse. In any case it was seen as a sign that God fought Israel's battle (v. 42; cf. Ex 14:14).
* [10:41] Goshen: a town and its surrounding district at the southern end of the Judean mountains (cf. 11:16; 15:51); not to be confused with the land of Goshen in northeastern Egypt (Gn 45:10).
a. [10:1] Jos 6:21, 24; 8:26–29.
e. [10:13] Sir 46:4; Is 28:21.
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Additions to this entry at the bottom (last update July 29)
In recent years, in most population genetics papers, an evolutionary mutation rate for Y chromosome microsatellites (STRs) of 0.00069/locus/generation has been used. This rate was proposed by Zhivotovsky et al. (2004) (pdf), and defended in Zhivotovsky et al. (2005), and especially Zhivotovsky, Underhill and Feldman (2006) (henceforth Z.U.F.)
This mutation rate is smaller than the observed germline mutation rate by a factor of 3-4. The germline mutation rate is observed by counting mutations directly, e.g., in father-son pairs, or in known pedigrees. Zhivotovsky et al. have provided two pieces of evidence in favor of their evolutionary rate:
- Study of accumalation of STR variation in populations with known founding events, namely Bulgarian Roma and Maori, in their 2004 paper.
- Simulations indicating a 3.6x discrepancy between the two rates in their 2006 paper, which is due to multiple bottlenecks in a haplogroup's history.
We need to obtain good estimates of the mutation rate in order to pinpoint in time the common ancestor of a set of Y chromosomes. A factor of 3, especially for relatively recent events may correspond to a difference between early historical and late Paleolithic events.Thus, I decided to look into the matter myself to be convinced -one way or another- of what the evolutionary mutation rate must be.
The following assumptions, following Z.U.F. are made:
- A man has 0, 1, 2, ... sons according to a Poisson process with mean m=1.
- A step mutation (increase or decrease by 1 repeat) occurs with a mutation rate of µ=0.00251
- STR variance of the man's descendants is measured after g generations.
Patriarch vs. MRCA
A consequence of the time-forward methodology of simulation, is that a Patriarch may not be the Most Recent Common Ancestor (MRCA) of his descendants g generations into the future. Trivially, if a Patriarch has only one son, then, that son -not the Patriarch- is the MRCA of his descendants. But, even if the Patriarch has many sons, and his group of descendants grows, it is possible (due to randomness of the fathering process) that at some generation only 1 descendant will survive.
Suppose that the Patriarch has lived in generation 0, and the MRCA lived in generation i. Thus, STR variance in the descendants at generation g (today) has accumulated over a time span of g-i generations, since, of course, at the generation i (of the MRCA), STR variance is zero.
Now, if we use a time-forward methodology from known foundation events (e.g. the arrival of the Roma in Bulgaria, or the Maori in New Zealand), it is perfectly right to see how STR variance accumulates from the known foundational event. We would then divide the accumulated STR variance by the known time span to determine an effective evolutionary mutation rate, similar to Zhivotovsky et al. (2004).
But, when the foundational event is unknown, when we are trying to estimate its age, then we can only go as far back as the MRCA, since at his time variance is zero. Therefore, by dividing accumulated variance with the evolutionary mutation rate of Z.U.F., we are over-estimating the time to the MRCA.
For example, with g=100, the average STR variance for the descendants of N=10,000 Patriarchs is 0.0755. But, if we average only those Patriarchs who are also the MRCA of their descendants, we obtain a value of 0.0824, or about 9% higher.
In general, the over-estimate (as a percentage) decreases as g increases: as g increases, the average number of descendants of a Patriarch increases, making them much less susceptible to a variance-reset type of bottleneck described here.
Thus, while the age difference between the MRCA and the Patriarch is real, its effect in the age estimate is not very pronounced. There is, however, a second, and much more serious problem, with the Z.U.F. rates when applied to evolutionary studies.
Prolific vs. Non-Prolific Patriarchs: an Observation Selection effect
Patriarchs starting at generation 0 will have a very variable number of descendants at generation g. By averaging over all of them, we are estimating the average STR variance in the descendants of men who lived g generations ago.
Now, consider how this average changes if we average only over the k most "prolific" men (with the most descendants) out of all the N=10,000 Patriarchs:
k | Average Variance | |
100 | 0.1721 | |
1000 | 0.1407 | |
2500 | 0.1219 | |
5000 | 0.1033 | |
10000 | 0.0755 |
It is clear that the STR variance in the descendants of the most "prolific" Patriarchs is much higher than in the descendants of the least "prolific" ones. In fact, for the most prolific Patriarchs, variance accumulates near the germline mutation rate, and not at the lower evolutionary effective rate.
Below is the cumulative percentage of the descendants of the k most prolific Patriarchs, with k from 1 to N.
It can be seen that e.g., from the most prolific half of the Patriarchs stems 84% of the descendants. And this, assuming no social inequality in the number of progeny, i.e. each man having the exact same average probability (m=1) of fathering a son. Thus, in reality, the more prolific Patriarchs may have an even larger fraction of the descendants.
Why is this important? Because, in population studies, scientists are likely observe (in the finite samples they collect) multiple descendants only of the most prolific of the Patriarchs. Thus, for the vast majority of the Patriarchs with few descendants, we are likely to sample no, or few of their descendants.
This means that there is an inherent observation selection effect in the types of Patriarchs we are likely to study: they are much more likely to be among the prolific ones. Coupling this observation with the knowledge that STR variance in the descendants of prolific Patriarchs accumulates near the germline mutation rate (0.69µ for the 100 most prolific ones in my experiment), we, once again, conclude that the STR variance in haplogroups likely to be made the object of scientific study accumulates near the germline mutation rate, and at the very least, faster than the evolutionary rate of Z.U.F.
Closing Remarks
Z.U.F. have also proposed two additional demographic scenaria under which a higher effective mutation rate would be observed:
- A sudden jump in the size of the haplogroup after it appears
- An expanding population (m>1)
Moreover, it is reasonable to assume that in stratified human societies, a few males, (leaders, or conquerors), or groups of closely related males may have generated a disproportionate number of descendants in the short-term.
In summary:
- The age difference between the Patriarch and the MRCA indicates that Variance/0.00069 overestimates the age of the MRCA somewhat (but not very much).
- A prolific Patriarch's descendants are more likely to be sampled by scientists, and tend to have a higher STR variance. Hence, Variance/0.00069 overestimates the age of the MRCA, perhaps substantially.
- Demographic factors, such as population growth, or short-term success by related males indicates that Variance/0.00069 overestimates the age of the MRCA.
1 Z.U.F. used a germline mutation rate of µ=0.001. For the purposes of simulation, this is not an important difference, as they themselves note. I choose the rate of 0.0025 because it is closer to the actual human germline mutation rate for STRs.
2 Z.U.F. generated 50,000 men and then averaged over the men who had descendants. I, on the other hand, generate as many men as it takes to harvest at least N men with descendants, to ensure that I average a substantially large number of such men.
Editorial change (Jul 22): erroneously written "exceeds",in paragraph 2, changed to "is smaller than".
Update (July 23):
To further elucidate how the observation selection effect may make lineages seem older than they really are, I carried out another small experiment (g=110, N=10,000, m=1).
The age of each group is inferred by dividing the accumulated variance by the evolutionary rate of 0.0006944 (=μ/3.6).
The average variance over all N in this experiment is 0.0867, thus, the average inferred age is 125 generations, close to the truth (110 generations), allowing for the correction in age between the Patriarch and the TMRCA.
However, if we calculated the average variance over ten groups of 1,000 lineages (out of all N=10,000) according to the number of descendants, we see, as described above, that more "prolific" lineages have accumulated more variance, whereas less "prolific" ones have accumulated less variance than the overall average of 0.0867.
Thus, over the 10% most populous lineages (right of the figure), the average inferred age is 209 generations, or a 90% overestimate of the true age!
But, as I mentioned, it is precisely these populous lineages (which don't just have "some" descendants today, but thousands and millions of them) that are likely to be studied, because they are the only ones that have enough representatives in a sample of 100-1,000 men, typically seen in a population study, to allow for an age estimate via a variance calculation.
Update (July 24): Haplogroup sizes
The number of a Patriarch's descendants after g generations is a random variable which depends on the parameters m (the population growth constant), and g, the number of generations.
Scientists typically look at haplogroups with thousands or millions of existing members. Are such haplogroups produced in the types of simulations performed by Z.U.F.?
I estimate the average size of the haplogroups of the haplogroups produced by Z.U.F. for different g=10,20,...,700 and m=1.
It is evident that this number increases linearly with g at a rate estimated to be 0.5/generation [This was also noted by Z.U.F. who state: "the average size of the surviving haplogroups increased each generation by a value rapidly approaching 0.5"] However, this means, that the average haplogroup at 700 generations has a size of ~350 men.
Thus, not only is the average variance estimated by Z.U.F. inappropriate because of an observation selection effect (averaging over small and large haplogroups alike), but it seems to miss the relevant observations altogether, i.e. the really large haplogroups numbering in the hundreds of thousands or millions. Yet it is precise for such large haplogroups that it has often be used in the literature.
How can we produce "realistic" haplogroup sizes, close to those likely to become an object of scientific study in contemporary human populations? We can either:
- increase the number of initial representatives, i.e. start with many related men with identical Y chromosomes rather than just 1, or we can
- increase the population growth constant m to something higher than 1, i.e. a growing population.
Indeed, Z.U.F. produce some such large haplogroups in some of their simulations (Fig. 1 asterisks, Fig. 2 squares/diamonds), all of which show -predictably- a higher effective rate than their 3.6x slower rate.
They caution against such large haplogroup sizes ["population size exceeds 1 million by generation 1000, which is not realistic for many local tribes."]. Granted, -- if one looks at local tribes never growing to large numbers.
And yet, some or all of the co-authors of Z.U.F. did not limit their use of the 3.6x slower rate to local tribes: Cinnioglu et al. 2004 (pdf), Sengupta et al. (2006), King et al. (2008) all apply the 0.00069 rate for populations (and haplogroups) that have grown to much more than 1 million in less time, thus overestimating severely their age.
Update (July 24): Variance of a large haplogroup
Following the previous observations, naturally, I wanted to see for myself what the STR variance of an ancient lineage with a large number of modern descendants actually looks like. My target size is 1,000,000, which is about 20% of modern Greek males.
I consider two cases:
- Expansion commencing in the Late Bronze Age (g=120 or 1,600BC with a generation length of 30)
- Expansion commencing in the early Neolithic (g=300 or 7,000BC)
I harvest N=1,000 haplogroups for each of these cases. I set the growth constant at m=1.100694 for the Bronze Age, and m=1.039122 for the Neolithic. This ensures that enough "large" haplogroups will be generated during simulation. Naturally, the overall population grows at a smaller rate, but the successful lineages will grow much faster than the population average.
Note that I harvest only haplogroups whose MRCA lived in the specified time span. Also, I harvest haplogroups whose final size is between 750,000 and 1,250,000 to match my target size of 1,000,000. Indeed, the average size of the harvested haplogroups is 964,327 for the Bronze Age, and 979693 for the Neolithic.
Here are the results:
- ~1 million descendants of a Bronze Age (120 generations ago) ancestor have an STR variance of 0.269 +/ 0.087
- ~1 million descendants of a Neolithic (300 generations ago) ancestor have an STR variance of 0.629 +/- 0.156
- Bronze Age: 107.6 generations, or a 10% underestimate
- Neolithic: 251.6 generations, or a 16% underestimate
- Bronze Age: 389.9 generations, or a 225% overestimate
- Neolithic 911.6 generations, or a 203% overestimate
Let's look at some concrete examples of age estimates in the literature, where I compare my own (first) estimates with the published ones. Here is how my estimates are derived:
For a Bronze Age ancestor (g=120) it is: 0.269 =(approx) 0.9 μg
For a Neolithic ancestor (g=300) it is: 0.629 =(approx) 0.84 μg
Thus, the correction multiplier, if the variance is between 0.269 and 0.629 is between 0.84 and 0.9; I will use the midpoint 0.87. If the variance is less than 0.269, then I use 0.9. If the variance is more than 0.629 then I use 0.84. Of course, the correction factor could be expressed more accurately as a function of the variance.
Note that the generation length preferred by these authors is 25, by me it is 30. All ages are ky BC.
Cinnioglu et al. (2004)
In this paper, an evolutionary rate of 0.0007 is used.
Variance | Cinnioglu | Dienekes | ||||
E-M78 is dated to 400BC, only a couple of centuries after the historical Greek colonization. E-M78 reaches its maximum in the Peloponese, a major source of Greek colonists.
I-P37 and J-M12 are dated to 1,100BC and 1,200BC, at around the time that e.g. the Phrygians from the Balkans are believed to have migrated to Asia Minor. I-P37 and J-M12 reach their maxima in areas north of Greece where the Phrygians are said to have originated.
Sengupta et al. (2006)
Variance | Sengupta | Dienekes | ||||
R-M17 (upper caste) | 0.26 | 7.3 | 1.5 | |||
Thus, all the exogenous West Asian lineages in India have post-Neolithic ages, with R-M17 having a suggestive age of 1,500BC coinciding with the suggested date for the Indo-Aryans.
King et al. (2008)
Variance | King | Dienekes | |||||
J-M12 (Nea Nikomedeia) | 0.18 | 4.7 | 0.4 | ||||
E-V13 (Sesklo/Dimini) | 0.24 | 6.6 | 1.2 | ||||
E-V13 (Lerna Franchthi) | 0.25 | 7.2 | 1.3 | ||||
J-M92 (Crete) | 0.14 | 3.1 | 0.1 | AD | |||
J-M319 (Crete) | 0.14 | 3.1 | 0.1 | AD | |||
E-V13 (Crete) | 0.09 | 1.1 | 0.8 | AD |
These are very localized samples, so they should not be interpreted as reflecting expansion times in Greece itself, however, they do suggest a Bronze Age expansion of E-V13 and a much later arrival of E-V13 in Crete.
Note that for Crete, the 1,000,000-haplogroup size assumption is a substantial overestimate, so my age estimates are also substantial underestimates.
Update (July 25): R-M17 in South Siberia
Derenko et al. (2006) "Contrasting patterns of Y-chromosome variation in South Siberian populations from Baikal and Altai-Sayan regions" calculate the variance of R-M17 chromosomes in South Siberia, using the Z.U.F. rate, arriving at an age of 11.3kya corresponding to a value of 0.31. This corresponds to 2,300BC according to my estimate (see previous update).
Recently Bouakaze et al. (Int J Legal Med (2007) 121:493–499) reported the presence of R-M17 chromosomes in ancient inhabitants of South Siberia and the Andronovo culture (2,500BC-1,500BC).
The Andronovo culture is widely believed to be of Eastern European ultimate origin, reflecting the eastward movement of the Kurgan culture, and is associated by some with the ancestors of the Indo-Iranians.
In the Balkans, again in Z.U.F. years, the age of R-M17 is 15.8kya corresponding to variation of 0.44, corresponding to ~4,000BC according to my estimate.
Update (July 25): Baltic Y chromosomes
Lappalainen et al. (2008) use the Z.U.F. rate to estimate the antiquity of lineages in the Baltic region. Dates are ky BC.
Lappalainen | Dienekes | |||
I1a | 5.7 | 1 | ||
R1a1 | 8.7 | 1.9 |
1,000BC for I1a in the Baltic region is within the time frame of the emergence of the Germanic people who did experience a strong demographic growth.
1,500BC for N3 shows a rather late time for Finno-Ugrians. However, it must be noted that smaller demographic sizes would impose more drift, and hence a slower accumulation of variance. Therefore, this time is probably underestimated.
1,900BC for R1a1 is consistent with the northern edge of the expansion of R1a1. Once again, reduced variance may also be influenced by smaller population numbers, making this a possible underestimate.
Update (July 25): Southeastern Europe (the Balkans)
Pericic et al. (2005) use the Z.U.F. rate to estimate ages of Y-chromosome lineages in the Balkans. Dates are ky BC.
Pericic | Dienekes | |||
I1b* (xM26) | 8.1 | 2 | ||
E3b1α | 5.3 | 0.9 | ||
J-M241 (without Kosovars) | 1 | 0.8AD |
Thus, Balkan haplogroup I seems related to a Bronze Age origin, with R-M17 being substantially older, and deriving perhaps from northern Balkan Neolithic or alternatively intrusive Kurgan populations. J-M241 seems to be quite young, similar to J-M12 in Nea Nikomedeia (see discussion of King et al. (2008) above).
The young ages of J-M12 and J-M241 also explain the striking inverse correlation between it and J-M410, which makes sense if it expanded later. A fairly late expansion also explains its under-representation in Southern Italy and Anatolia: it appears to be a rather young and "Epirotic" clade that was too late in coming to significantly participate in the historical Greek colonization.
Update (July 26): E3b in Cyprus and Southern Italy
Capelli et al. (2005) [Population Structure in the Mediterranean Basin: A Y Chromosome Perspective] study Y-chromosome variation in many Mediterranean populations including Cyprus. I use a mutation rate of 0.0018 for the six markers used in this study (Quintana-Murci et al. AJHG 68(2) pp. 537 - 542 ). Ages are in ky BC.
I come up with an age of 1.4ky BC for E3b in Cyprus, which is consistent with Mycenaean and later Greek settlements on the island.
I also looked at Southern Italian Y chromosomes. I removed those with values other than (13,12) in DYS19,DYS388), since these are universal in Greek E-V13, in order to remove possible contamination from non E-V13 chromosomes. The resulting age is 900BC, once again very close to the historical Greek colonization of Magna Graecia.
July (26): A more elaborate population growth model
Z.U.F. also propose (Fig. 2 triangles) a more elaborate population growth with:
- m=1.002 before 400 generations
- m=1.012 from 400 to to 14 generations ago
- m=1.12 from 14 to 8 generations ago
- m=1.25 from 8 generations ago to current time
I ran a simulation (g=1000, N=10,000) with this population growth model. The average size of the descent groups of the MRCAs is 692,982 men. Averaged all of them, variance is 1.37.
- With the germline mutation rate, an estimate of 549 generations (45% underestimate)
- With the Z.U.F. evolutionary rate, an estimate of 1,988 generations (99% overestimate)
- With the germline mutation rate: 776, 747, 668 generations
- With the Z.U.F. evolutionary rate: 2,810, 2,707, 2,419 generations
Thus, one can estimate that STR variance since the time of the MRCA accumulates at a rate of ~0.75μ / generation.
And, yet, the 0.00069 rate has been used to date Paleolithic events, e.g., by Semino et al. (2004) [Am. J. Hum. Genet. 74:1023–1034, 2004], leading to general age overestimates.
Update (July 29)
My discussion is continued in Haplogroup sizes and observation selection effects (continued)


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Studies of improved seed adoption in developing countries almost always draw from household surveys and are premised on the assumption that farmers are able to self-report their use of improved seed varieties. However, recent studies suggest that farmers' reports of the seed varieties planted, or even whether seed is local or improved, are sometimes inconsistent with the results of DNA fingerprinting of farmers' crops. We use household survey data from Tanzania to test the alignment between farmer-reported and DNA-identified maize seed types planted in fields. In the sample, 70% of maize seed observations are correctly reported as local or improved, while 16% are type I errors (falsely reported as improved) and 14% are type II errors (falsely reported as local). Type I errors are more likely to have been sourced from other farmers, rather than formal channels. An analysis of input use, including seed, fertilizer, and labor allocations, reveals that farmers tend to treat improved maize differently, depending on whether they correctly perceive it as improved. This suggests that errors in farmers' seed type awareness may translate into suboptimal management practices. In econometric analysis, the measured yield benefit of improved seed use is smaller in magnitude with a DNA-derived categorization, as compared with farmer reports. The greatest yield benefit is with correctly identified improved seed. This indicates that investments in farmers' access to information, seed labeling, and seed system oversight are needed to complement investments in seed variety development.
Precise agricultural statistics are necessary to track productivity and design sound agricultural policies. Yet, in settings where intercropping is prevalent, even crop yield can be challenging to measure. In a systematic survey of the literature on crop yield in low-income settings, we find that scholars specify how they estimate the yield denominator in under 10% of cases. Using household survey data from Tanzania, we consider four alternative methods of allocating land area on plots that contain multiple crops, and explore the implications of this measurement decision for analyses of maize and rice yield. We find that 64% of cultivated plots contain more than one crop, and average yield estimates vary with different methods of calculating area planted. This pattern is more pronounced for maize, which is more likely than rice to share a plot with other crops. The choice among area methods influences which of these two staple crops is found to be more calorie-productive per ha, as well as the extent to which fertilizer is expected to be profitable for maize production. Given that construction decisions can influence the results of analysis, we conclude that the literature would benefit from greater clarity regarding how yield is measured across studies.
According to AGRA's 2017 Africa Agriculture Status Report, smallholder farmers make up to about 70% of the population in Africa. The report finds that 500 million smallholder farms around the world provide livelihoods for more than 2 billion people and produce about 80% of the food in sub-Saharan Africa and Asia. Many development interventions and policies therefore target smallholder farm households with the goals of increasing their productivity and promoting agricultural transformation. Of particular interest for agricultural transformation is the degree to which smallholder farm households are commercializating their agricultural outputs, and diversifying their income sources away from agriculture. In this project, EPAR uses data from the World Bank's Living Standards Measurement Study - Integrated Surveys on Agriculture (LSMS-ISA) to analyze and compare characteristics of smallholder farm households at different levels of crop commercialization and reliance on farm income, and to evaluate implications of using different criteria for defining "smallholder" households for conclusions on trends in agricultural transformation for those households.
Crop yield is one of the most commonly used partial factor productivity measures. It is used to estimate the ratio of quantity of crop output, generally measured in kilograms or tons, to a sole input, land area. Ongoing EPAR research explores the policy implications of measuring yield by area planted versus area harvested. In this brief, we consider implications for crop yield estimates of other decisions in how to construct yield measures from household survey microdata. Using data from three waves of the Tanzania National Panel Survey (TNPS) and two waves of the Ethiopia Socioeconomic Survey (ESS), both part of the World Bank's Living Standards Measurement Study-Integrated Surveys on Agriculture (LSMS-ISA), we calculate separate crop yield estimates across survey waves following different decisions on disaggregating yield by gender(s) of the plot decision-maker(s) and for pure-stand and mixed stand (intercropped) plots, on including crop production from multiple growing seasons, and on how to treat outlier observations.
An ongoing stream of EPAR research considers how public good characteristics of different types of research and development (R&D) and the motivations of different providers of R&D funding affect the relative advantages of alternative funding sources. For this project, we seek to summarize the key public good characteristics of R&D investment for agriculture in general and for different subsets of crops, and hypothesize how these characteristics might be expected to affect public, private, or philanthropic funders' investment decisions.
By examining how farmers respond to changes in crop yield, we provide evidence on how farmers are likely to respond to a yield-enhancing intervention that targets a single staple crop such as maize. Two alternate hypotheses we examine are: as yields increase, do farmers maintain output levels but change the output mix to switch into other crops or activities, or do they hold cultivated area constant to increase their total production quantity and therefore their own consumption or marketing of the crop? This exploratory data analysis using three waves of panel data from Tanzania is part of a long-term project examining the pathways between staple crop yield (a proxy for agricultural productivity) and poverty reduction in Sub-Saharan Africa.
This brief presents an overview of EPAR's previous research related to gender. We first present our key takeaways related to labor and time use, technology adoption, agricultural production, control over income and assets, health and nutrition, and data collection. We then provide a brief overview of each previous research project related to gender along with gender-related findings, starting with the most recent project. Many of the gender-related findings draw from other sources; please see the full documents for references. Reports available on EPAR's website are hyperlinked in the full brief.
There is a wide gap between realized and potential yields for many crops in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Experts identify poor soil quality as a primary constraint to increased agricultural productivity. Therefore, increasing agricultural productivity by improving soil quality is seen as a viable strategy to enhance food security. Yet adoption rates of programs focused on improving soil quality have generally been lower than expected. We explore a seldom considered factor that may limit farmers' demand for improved soil quality, namely, whether farmers' self-assessments of their soil quality match soil scientists' assessments. In this paper, using Tanzania National Panel Survey (TZNPS) data, part of the Living Standards Measurement Study – Integrated Surveys on Agriculture (LSMS-ISA), we compare farmers' own assessments of soil quality with scientific measurements of soil quality from the Harmonized World Soil Database (HWSD). We find a considerable "mismatch" and most notably, that 11.5 percent of survey households that reported having "good" soil quality are measured by scientific standards to have severely constrained nutrient availability. Mismatches between scientific measurements and farmer assessments of soil quality may highlight a potential barrier for programs seeking to encourage farmers to adopt soil quality improvement activities.
Relative to chronic hunger, seasonal hunger in rural and urban areas of Africa is poorly understood. No estimates are compiled, and limited evidence exists on prevalence, causes, and impacts. This paper contributes to the body of evidence by examining the extent and potential drivers of seasonal hunger using panel data from the Malawi Integrated Household Panel Survey (IHPS). Farmers are commonly thought to use various strategies to smooth consumption, including planting "off-season" crops, investing in post-harvest storage technologies, or generally diversifying farm portfolios including livestock products and/or wild crops. Similarly, when markets are available, farmers may diversify through off-farm income sources in order to purchase food in lean seasons. We investigate whether seasonal hunger – distinct from chronic hunger – exists in Malawi, drawing on two waves of panel data from the LSMS-ISA series. We examine the extent of seasonal hunger, factors associated with variation in seasonal hunger, and how recurring and longer-term seasonal hunger might be associated with various household welfare measures. We find that both urban and rural households report experiencing seasonal hunger in the pre-harvest months, with descriptive evidence suggesting male gender, age, and education of household head, livestock ownership, and storage of crops are associated with lower levels of seasonal hunger. In addition, we find that Malawian households with seasonal hunger harvest crops earlier than average – a short-term coping mechanism that can reduce the crop's yield and nutritional value, possibly perpetuating hunger.


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A Super Motivational Speech By JK Rowling, Author of The Harry Potter Series
(Register for Anubhav Srivastava's Confidence Building Workshop Here!)
Delivering a commencement address is a great responsibility; or so I thought until I cast my mind back to my own graduation. The commencement speaker that day was the distinguished British philosopher Baroness Mary Warnock. Reflecting on her speech has helped me enormously in writing this one, because it turns out that I can't remember a single word she said. This liberating discovery enables me to proceed without any fear that I might inadvertently influence you to abandon promising careers in business, the law or politics for the giddy delights of becoming a gay wizard.
You see? If all you remember in years to come is the 'gay wizard' joke, I've come out ahead of Baroness Mary Warnock. Achievable goals: the first step to self improvement.
Actually, I have wracked my mind and heart for what I ought to say to you today. I have asked myself what I wish I had known at my own graduation, and what important lessons I have learned in the 21 years that have expired between that day and this.
I have come up with two answers. On this wonderful day when we are gathered together to celebrate your academic success, I have decided to talk to you about the benefits of failure. And as you stand on the threshold of what is sometimes called 'real life', I want to extol the crucial importance of imagination.
These may seem quixotic or paradoxical choices, but please bear with me.
Looking back at the 21-year-old that I was at graduation, is a slightly uncomfortable experience for the 42-year-old that she has become. Half my lifetime ago, I was striking an uneasy balance between the ambition I had for myself, and what those closest to me expected of me.
I was convinced that the only thing I wanted to do, ever, was to write novels. However, my parents, both of whom came from impoverished backgrounds and neither of whom had been to college, took the view that my overactive imagination was an amusing personal quirk that would never pay a mortgage, or secure a pension. I know that the irony strikes with the force of a cartoon anvil, now.
So they hoped that I would take a vocational degree; I wanted to study English Literature. A compromise was reached that in retrospect satisfied nobody, and I went up to study Modern Languages. Hardly had my parents' car rounded the corner at the end of the road than I ditched German and scuttled off down the Classics corridor.
I cannot remember telling my parents that I was studying Classics; they might well have found out for the first time on graduation day. Of all the subjects on this planet, I think they would have been hard put to name one less useful than Greek mythology when it came to securing the keys to an executive bathroom.
I would like to make it clear, in parenthesis, that I do not blame my parents for their point of view. There is an expiry date on blaming your parents for steering you in the wrong direction; the moment you are old enough to take the wheel, responsibility lies with you. What is more, I cannot criticise my parents for hoping that I would never experience poverty. They had been poor themselves, and I have since been poor, and I quite agree with them that it is not an ennobling experience. Poverty entails fear, and stress, and sometimes depression; it means a thousand petty humiliations and hardships. Climbing out of poverty by your own efforts, that is indeed something on which to pride yourself, but poverty itself is romanticised only by fools.
What I feared most for myself at your age was not poverty, but failure.
At your age, in spite of a distinct lack of motivation at university, where I had spent far too long in the coffee bar writing stories, and far too little time at lectures, I had a knack for passing examinations, and that, for years, had been the measure of success in my life and that of my peers
I am not dull enough to suppose that because you are young, gifted and well-educated, you have never known hardship or heartbreak. Talent and intelligence never yet inoculated anyone against the caprice of the Fates, and I do not for a moment suppose that everyone here has enjoyed an existence of unruffled privilege and contentment.
However, the fact that you are graduating from Harvard suggests that you are not very well-acquainted with failure. You might be driven by a fear of failure quite as much as a desire for success. Indeed, your conception of failure might not be too far from the average person's idea of success, so high have you already flown.
Ultimately, we all have to decide for ourselves what constitutes failure, but the world is quite eager to give you a set of criteria if you let it. So I think it fair to say that by any conventional measure, a mere seven years after my graduation day, I had failed on an epic scale. An exceptionally short-lived marriage had imploded, and I was jobless, a lone parent, and as poor as it is possible to be in modern Britain, without being homeless. The fears that my parents had had for me, and that I had had for myself, had both come to pass, and by every usual standard, I was the biggest failure I knew.
Now, I am not going to stand here and tell you that failure is fun. That period of my life was a dark one, and I had no idea that there was going to be what the press has since represented as a kind of fairy tale resolution. I had no idea then how far the tunnel extended, and for a long time, any light at the end of it was a hope rather than a reality.
So why do I talk about the benefits of failure? Simply because failure meant a stripping away of the inessential. I stopped pretending to myself that I was anything other than what I was, and began to direct all my energy into finishing the only work that mattered to me. Had I really succeeded at anything else, I might never have found the determination to succeed in the one arena I believed I truly belonged. I was set free, because my greatest fear had been realised, and I was still alive, and I still had a daughter whom I adored, and I had an old typewriter and a big idea. And so rock bottom became the solid foundation on which I rebuilt my life.
You might never fail on the scale I did, but some failure in life is inevitable. It is impossible to live without failing at something, unless you live so cautiously that you might as well not have lived at all – in which case, you fail by default.
Failure gave me an inner security that I had never attained by passing examinations. Failure taught me things about myself that I could have learned no other way. I discovered that I had a strong will, and more discipline than I had suspected; I also found out that I had friends whose value was truly above the price of rubies.
The knowledge that you have emerged wiser and stronger from setbacks means that you are, ever after, secure in your ability to survive. You will never truly know yourself, or the strength of your relationships, until both have been tested by adversity. Such knowledge is a true gift, for all that it is painfully won, and it has been worth more than any qualification I ever earned.
So given a Time Turner, I would tell my 21-year-old self that personal happiness lies in knowing that life is not a check-list of acquisition or achievement. Your qualifications, your CV, are not your life, though you will meet many people of my age and older who confuse the two. Life is difficult, and complicated, and beyond anyone's total control, and the humility to know that will enable you to survive its vicissitudes.
Now you might think that I chose my second theme, the importance of imagination, because of the part it played in rebuilding my life, but that is not wholly so. Though I personally will defend the value of bedtime stories to my last gasp, I have learned to value imagination in a much broader sense. Imagination is not only the uniquely human capacity to envision that which is not, and therefore the fount of all invention and innovation. In its arguably most transformative and revelatory capacity, it is the power that enables us to empathise with humans whose experiences we have never shared.
One of the greatest formative experiences of my life preceded Harry Potter, though it informed much of what I subsequently wrote in those books. This revelation came in the form of one of my earliest day jobs. Though I was sloping off to write stories during my lunch hours, I paid the rent in my early 20s by working at the African research department at Amnesty International's headquarters in London.
There in my little office I read hastily scribbled letters smuggled out of totalitarian regimes by men and women who were risking imprisonment to inform the outside world of what was happening to them. I saw photographs of those who had disappeared without trace, sent to Amnesty by their desperate families and friends. I read the testimony of torture victims and saw pictures of their injuries. I opened handwritten, eye-witness accounts of summary trials and executions, of kidnappings and rapes.
Many of my co-workers were ex-political prisoners, people who had been displaced from their homes, or fled into exile, because they had the temerity to speak against their governments. Visitors to our offices included those who had come to give information, or to try and find out what had happened to those they had left behind.
I shall never forget the African torture victim, a young man no older than I was at the time, who had become mentally ill after all he had endured in his homeland. He trembled uncontrollably as he spoke into a video camera about the brutality inflicted upon him. He was a foot taller than I was, and seemed as fragile as a child. I was given the job of escorting him back to the Underground Station afterwards, and this man whose life had been shattered by cruelty took my hand with exquisite courtesy, and wished me future happiness.
And as long as I live I shall remember walking along an empty corridor and suddenly hearing, from behind a closed door, a scream of pain and horror such as I have never heard since. The door opened, and the researcher poked out her head and told me to run and make a hot drink for the young man sitting with her. She had just had to give him the news that in retaliation for his own outspokenness against his country's regime, his mother had been seized and executed.
Every day of my working week in my early 20s I was reminded how incredibly fortunate I was, to live in a country with a democratically elected government, where legal representation and a public trial were the rights of everyone.
Every day, I saw more evidence about the evils humankind will inflict on their fellow humans, to gain or maintain power. I began to have nightmares, literal nightmares, about some of the things I saw, heard, and read.
And yet I also learned more about human goodness at Amnesty International than I had ever known before.
Amnesty mobilises thousands of people who have never been tortured or imprisoned for their beliefs to act on behalf of those who have. The power of human empathy, leading to collective action, saves lives, and frees prisoners. Ordinary people, whose personal well-being and security are assured, join together in huge numbers to save people they do not know, and will never meet. My small participation in that process was one of the most humbling and inspiring experiences of my life.
Unlike any other creature on this planet, humans can learn and understand, without having experienced. They can think themselves into other people's places.
Of course, this is a power, like my brand of fictional magic, that is morally neutral. One might use such an ability to manipulate, or control, just as much as to understand or sympathise.
And many prefer not to exercise their imaginations at all. They choose to remain comfortably within the bounds of their own experience, never troubling to wonder how it would feel to have been born other than they are. They can refuse to hear screams or to peer inside cages; they can close their minds and hearts to any suffering that does not touch them personally; they can refuse to know.
I might be tempted to envy people who can live that way, except that I do not think they have any fewer nightmares than I do. Choosing to live in narrow spaces leads to a form of mental agoraphobia, and that brings its own terrors. I think the wilfully unimaginative see more monsters. They are often more afraid.
What is more, those who choose not to empathise enable real monsters. For without ever committing an act of outright evil ourselves, we collude with it, through our own apathy.
One of the many things I learned at the end of that Classics corridor down which I ventured at the age of 18, in search of something I could not then define, was this, written by the Greek author Plutarch: What we achieve inwardly will change outer reality.
That is an astonishing statement and yet proven a thousand times every day of our lives. It expresses, in part, our inescapable connection with the outside world, the fact that we touch other people's lives simply by existing.
But how much more are you, Harvard graduates of 2008, likely to touch other people's lives? Your intelligence, your capacity for hard work, the education you have earned and received, give you unique status, and unique responsibilities. Even your nationality sets you apart. The great majority of you belong to the world's only remaining superpower. The way you vote, the way you live, the way you protest, the pressure you bring to bear on your government, has an impact way beyond your borders. That is your privilege, and your burden.
If you choose to use your status and influence to raise your voice on behalf of those who have no voice; if you choose to identify not only with the powerful, but with the powerless; if you retain the ability to imagine yourself into the lives of those who do not have your advantages, then it will not only be your proud families who celebrate your existence, but thousands and millions of people whose reality you have helped change. We do not need magic to change the world, we carry all the power we need inside ourselves already: we have the power to imagine better.
I am nearly finished. I have one last hope for you, which is something that I already had at 21. The friends with whom I sat on graduation day have been my friends for life. They are my children's godparents, the people to whom I've been able to turn in times of trouble, people who have been kind enough not to sue me when I took their names for Death Eaters. At our graduation we were bound by enormous affection, by our shared experience of a time that could never come again, and, of course, by the knowledge that we held certain photographic evidence that would be exceptionally valuable if any of us ran for Prime Minister.
So today, I wish you nothing better than similar friendships. And tomorrow, I hope that even if you remember not a single word of mine, you remember those of Seneca, another of those old Romans I met when I fled down the Classics corridor, in retreat from career ladders, in search of ancient wisdom:
As is a tale, so is life: not how long it is, but how good it is, is what matters.
I wish you all very good lives.
Thank-you very much.
Email Anubhav Srivastava for coaching, consulting or motivational speaking queries at email@example.com. Facebook Profile: http://facebook.com/anubhav981
Watch Carve Your Destiny, the super inspirational movie by Anubhav Srivastava for Free at


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What you should know about selling your home
The Organisme d'autoréglementation du courtage immobilier du Québec (OACIQ) has prepared this guide to assist you at every step of the process of selling a property.
In it you will find the main steps you need to follow before and during the sale of your home, as well as many useful tips to help you complete your real estate transaction in a satisfactory manner. For the steps towards the purchase of a home, check the Buyer's Guide.
This guide is meant to serve as a quick reference guide, but it does not replace the advice of a real estate broker or agency. Its content applies exclusively to the sale of a residential property. It includes some information about properties held in divided and undivided co-ownership, but this content is not thorough.


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** please consult the sizing chart BEFORE purchasing, we are not responsible for any mis-sizing.


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Freedom from the Law.* 1Are you unaware, brothers (for I am speaking to people who know the law), that the law has jurisdiction over one as long as one lives? 2Thus a married woman is bound by law to her living husband; but if her husband dies, she is released from the law in respect to her husband.a 3Consequently, while her husband is alive she will be called an adulteress if she consorts with another man. But if her husband dies she is free from that law, and she is not an adulteress if she consorts with another man.
4In the same way, my brothers, you also were put to death to the law through the body of Christ, so that you might belong to another, to the one who was raised from the dead in order that we might bear fruit for God. 5For when we were in the flesh, our sinful passions, awakened by the law, worked in our members to bear fruit for death.b 6But now we are released from the law, dead to what held us captive, so that we may serve in the newness of the spirit and not under the obsolete letter.c
Acquaintance with Sin through the Law. 7* What then can we say? That the law is sin? Of course not!* Yet I did not know sin except through the law, and I did not know what it is to covet except that the law said, "You shall not covet."d 8But sin, finding an opportunity in the commandment, produced in me every kind of covetousness. Apart from the law sin is dead.e 9I once lived outside the law, but when the commandment came, sin became alive; 10then I died, and the commandment that was for life turned out to be death for me.f 11For sin, seizing an opportunity in the commandment, deceived me and through it put me to death.g 12So then the law is holy, and the commandment is holy and righteous and good.h
Sin and Death.* 13Did the good, then, become death for me? Of course not! Sin, in order that it might be shown to be sin, worked death in me through the good, so that sin might become sinful beyond measure through the commandment.i 14We know that the law is spiritual; but I am carnal, sold into slavery to sin.j 15What I do, I do not understand. For I do not do what I want, but I do what I hate. 16Now if I do what I do not want, I concur that the law is good. 17So now it is no longer I who do it, but sin that dwells in me. 18For I know that good does not dwell in me, that is, in my flesh. The willing is ready at hand, but doing the good is not.k 19For I do not do the good I want, but I do the evil I do not want. 20Now if [I] do what I do not want, it is no longer I who do it, but sin that dwells in me. 21So, then, I discover the principle that when I want to do right, evil is at hand. 22For I take delight in the law of God, in my inner self, 23l but I see in my members another principle at war with the law of my mind, taking me captive to the law of sin that dwells in my members.* 24Miserable one that I am! Who will deliver me from this mortal body? 25Thanks be to God through Jesus Christ our Lord. Therefore, I myself, with my mind, serve the law of God but, with my flesh, the law of sin.m
* [7:1–6] Paul reflects on the fact that Christians have a different understanding of the law because of their faith in Christ. Law binds the living, not the dead, as exemplified in marriage, which binds in life but is dissolved through death. Similarly, Christians who through baptism have died with Christ to sin (cf. Rom 6:2–4) are freed from the law that occasioned transgressions, which in turn were productive of death. Now that Christians are joined to Christ, the power of Christ's resurrection makes it possible for them to bear the fruit of newness of life for God.
* [7:7–25] In this passage Paul uses the first person singular in the style of diatribe for the sake of argument. He aims to depict the disastrous consequences when a Christian reintroduces the law as a means to attain the objective of holiness pronounced in Rom 6:22.
* [7:7–12] The apostle defends himself against the charge of identifying the law with sin. Sin does not exist in law but in human beings, whose sinful inclinations are not overcome by the proclamation of law.
* [7:13–25] Far from improving the sinner, law encourages sin to expose itself in transgressions or violations of specific commandments (see Rom 1:24; 5:20). Thus persons who do not experience the justifying grace of God, and Christians who revert to dependence on law as the criterion for their relationship with God, will recognize a rift between their reasoned desire for the goodness of the law and their actual performance that is contrary to the law. Unable to free themselves from the slavery of sin and the power of death, they can only be rescued from defeat in the conflict by the power of God's grace working through Jesus Christ.
* [7:23] As in Rom 3:27 Paul plays on the term law, which in Greek can connote custom, system, or principle.
a. [7:2] 1 Cor 7:39.
d. [7:7] 3:20; Ex 20:17; Dt 5:21.
e. [7:8] 5:13, 20; 1 Cor 15:56 / 4:15.
k. [7:18] Gn 6:5; 8:21; Phil 2:13.
l. [7:23] Gal 5:17; 1 Pt 2:11.
m. [7:25] 1 Cor 15:57.
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What would you be most concerned about losing in a flood? It's different between men and women (of course). See the results from our latest survey.
We can't say it enough: If it can rain (or snow), it can flood. Flooding can happen in a matter of minutes, or it may creep up slowly, but either way it can cause massive amounts of damage. Typically, nature handles excess water by sweeping it away into streams, lakes and rivers or just absorbing it into the ground. But we all know Mother Nature can be fickle, so when she opens the floodgates, it can be detrimental to your home, property and all your belongings.
Unfortunately, most people don't know that their homeowners policy doesn't cover flooding. What's more, they usually don't discover that until after a costly loss. Floods are the most expensive and destructive natural disaster in the United States, according to FEMA, and can occur in every state. At Erie Insurance, we're here to bring you peace of mind, which is why we've introduced our Extended Water coverage.
What is Extended Water Coverage?
ERIE's Extended Water coverage1 provides protection for your home in the event of a sewer or drain backup, or from flooding such as inland flooding, tidal water, storm surge or mudflow and mudslide. This endorsement can be added to your ErieSecure Home® policy (or bundle) and offers protection for your home, garage or other structures and personal property2— including that stuff you've stored in your basement. To avoid losing valuables, make sure you know what not to store in your basement, because there are some things even we can't replace!
Floods are devastating, they can damage homes both above and below ground, as well as displace families for extended periods of time. Extended Water coverage is designed to help cover things like:
- Basements and other rooms
- Water backups from sewers and drains
- Repair and replacement costs for your home and personal property3
- Flood avoidance reimbursement (up to $10,000)4
- Temporary relocation costs, like a hotel or short-term rental5
But Why Do I Need Extended Water?
As we've mentioned, flooding can happen anywhere, to anyone. Yet your typical homeowners policy doesn't cover it and only a staggering 4% of homeowners actually have flood coverage — as estimated by Milliman, an independent risk management, benefits and technology firm.
Sadly, many people assume since they aren't in a high-risk area it's not a needed coverage. But did you know that over 25% of flood claims come from individuals living outside high-risk zones? What's even more earth shattering is just a single inch of water in a home is estimated to cost over $25,000 in repairs. Quite a hefty bill for such a small amount of water.
ERIE® insurance products and services are provided by one or more of the following insurers: Erie Insurance Exchange, Erie Insurance Company, Erie Insurance Property & Casualty Company, Flagship City Insurance Company and Erie Family Life Insurance Company (home offices: Erie, Pennsylvania) or Erie Insurance Company of New York (home office: Rochester, New York). The companies within the Erie Insurance Group are not licensed to operate in all states. Refer to the company licensure and states of operation information.
The insurance products and rates, if applicable, described in this blog are in effect as of January 2024 and may be changed at any time.
Insurance products are subject to terms, conditions and exclusions not described in this blog. The policy contains the specific details of the coverages, terms, conditions and exclusions.
The insurance products and services described in this blog are not offered in all states. ERIE life insurance and annuity products are not available in New York. ERIE Medicare supplement products are not available in the District of Columbia or New York. ERIE long term care products are not available in the District of Columbia and New York.
Eligibility will be determined at the time of application based upon applicable underwriting guidelines and rules in effect at that time.
Your ERIE agent can offer you practical guidance and answer questions you may have before you buy.
A better insurance experience starts with ERIE.
Haven't heard of us? Erie Insurance started with humble beginnings in 1925 with a mission to emphasize customer service above all else. Though we've grown to reach the Fortune 500 list, we still haven't lost the human touch.
Contact Nemec Insurance Agency today to experience the ERIE difference for yourself.


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Signaling for Help
When you decide to stay put and wait for rescue, prepare help signals as soon as possible.
- The international emergency sign for distress is three of any signal: three shots, three blasts on a whistle, three flashes with a mirror, or three fires evenly spaced.
- If you're near an open space, walk an X in the snow, grass, or sand. Make it as large as possible so that it can be seen easily from the air. Placing branches, logs, or rocks along the X will make it more visible.
- Do not light signal fires until you hear an aircraft. Adding green boughs, preferably pine if available, to the fire will help create smoke.
Personal Locator Beacons
Personal locator beacons (PLBs) provide a distress and alerting system for use in a life-and-death situation. A PLB is a small transmitter that sends out a personalized emergency distress signal to a monitored satellite system. When you buy a PLB, you must register it with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). PLBs are a highly effective and internationally recognized way to summon help.


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Roof Repair & Roof Replacement in Elkhorn, NE
Home Pride Contractors offers the leading service for residential roof repair and roof replacement in Elkhorn, Nebraska. Whether you need immediate repair for your Elkhorn roof or you're looking to install a new roof altogether, the professionals at Home Pride Contractors can provide unparalleled service at a competitive rate. The Elkhorn roofing experts at Home Pride offer comprehensive residential and commercial roofing services.
Your Partners in Elkhorn Roofing
There are a wide variety of materials and styles to use for your residential roof in Elkhorn, NE. Our team can help you choose a new roof that will provide the optimal protection and durability for your Elkhorn home, and we'll take care of the installation from start to finish. Selecting a roof for your home is a critical investment in the appearance, value, and future of your property. A new roof from Home Pride Contractors can add to both the curb appeal and value of your home and save you money on future roof repairs. Your roof is the most important component of the biggest investment of your life – your home.
Hail Damage Repair in Elkhorn, Nebraska
When your Elkhorn home needs hail damage repair, you need results fast. Call the roof repair experts at Home Pride Contractors when a storm hits for a free quote, friendly service, and high quality results. Home Pride has years of experience working with all insurance companies and can help you through the claim process.
If your home in Elkhorn, Nebraska, has experienced hail damage, it's essential to address the repairs as soon as possible or else the damage could worsen over time. As roofing professionals we can identify minor hail damage before it becomes an real problem which will save you time and money as we handle all roof repairs promptly and effectively. Don't put your home at further risk – let the experts at Home Pride Contractors handle all of your roofing repairs to keep your house protected from unpredictable Nebraska weather!
Call Home Pride Contractors today to schedule an appointment for a roofing inspection and a free quote on roof repair!


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In Traditional Chinese Medicine, health is achieved by living in balance with nature and the seasons. Winter, the season of the Water Element, is the season for slowing down, reflecting, and conserving our resources. We all feel this tendency, but we don't always listen to our bodies. In the Western culture, being active is rewarded and expected. We feel compelled to keep up the hectic pace that is typical in our daily lives.
This season is associated with the kidneys, bladder and adrenal glands and the time of year when these organs are most active, accessible, and even vulnerable. They are more receptive to being restored, nurtured and energized. At the same time, it is also when they can become easily depleted.
According to Chinese medicine, our kidneys receive a specific amount of energy at the time of our conception that will carry each of us through our lives, called Jing Qi. Imagine for a minute that our kidneys are like batteries. Batteries that cannot be recharged. Jing Qi is the energy stored in our kidney batteries. Our body and mind pull from this reserve in times of change, healing and stress. Every action we take draws on this power supply.
Some people can easily deplete their Jing Qi due to poor lifestyle choices and extreme stress. Others preserve it by nurturing it with the right foods and behaviors. Jing Qi is finite. The more we use it, the less we will have for necessary body functioning. Everyday our kidneys filter blood and other body fluids, remove toxins from the liver, and our bladder collects, processes and excretes these liquids through the urine.
There are ways we can preserve our Jing Qi. In addition to Jing Qi, we operate on renewable sources of energy. The spleen makes Qi (vital life force) for us out of the food we eat, and the lungs bring us Qi from the air. We will have less need to draw on our Jing Qi and be healthier and more energetic as we eat, rest and breathe better and do Qi Gong to replenish our renewable sources of energy.
Keep in mind that, stimulants such as caffeine deplete the kidneys, and rob us of our ability to know how we really feel. If our body is in need of rest and sleep, caffeine consumption will make us unaware of this fact, thus causing us to ignore our body's needs. This can then contribute to the unnecessary depletion of our Jing Qi.
In order to maintain and cultivate health, it is important to nurture and nourish our kidney energy. Now is the perfect time to recharge your internal kidney batteries. Acupuncture, yoga, Tai Chi, quiet reflection, meditation, simple walks and herbs are wonderful ways to recharge and energize!
Sources: www.tcmworld.org, www.lagrandelife.com


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