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Low-risk strategy delivers top-level returns
Bank Leumi uses SAS to achieve for superior shareholder returns
Achieving strong performance in both a stressful and a business-as-usual economic environment is a universal objective in banking. Yet many underestimate the role that effective credit risk management can play in getting them there. Bank Leumi of Israel has progressed further and faster in this positive direction than most other financial institutions.
Many states help to build banks, but Bank Leumi helped to build a state. Israel's leading bank, with a domestic market share of 30 percent, was established in 1902 in London, 46 years before the state of Israel was declared, and has always been central to the project to create a homeland for the Jewish people. Today it is a multinational operation with five major subsidiaries in the United Kingdom, the US, Switzerland, Luxembourg and Romania, 13,000 employees worldwide and approximately ILS 331 billion (US$90 billion) in total assets.
SAS gives us the power to analyze a variety of concentration risks from many different perspectives, enabling us to take decisions to bring the portfolio into balance.
Boaz Galinson
Head of Credit Risk Modeling and Measurement Group
Bank Leumi uses SAS® Credit Risk Management to execute its strategy of focusing on low-risk, high-return segments. Its target is to maintain an overall capital ratio of 14-14.5 percent – the highest in Israel. At the same time, it delivers superior shareholder returns. Over a five-year period to August 2010 these were 16 percent higher than the Tel Aviv banking index and significantly higher than those of global developed-market indices such as Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI, which Israel belongs to following a developed market status in May 2010). Evolving an effective approach to credit risk management combined with portfolio management are among the critical success factors.
Integrating risk management
"We do not take a passive regulation-centric view of credit risk management," says Boaz Galinson, Head of the Credit Risk Modeling and Measurement Group at Bank Leumi, "because that does not necessarily add real value to the business. Rather, we see our role as providing information that will help the business to make the right decisions."
According to Galinson, risk management analysis must be integrated into the business. A key lesson that should be learned from the credit crisis is that risk management should be able to answer questions raised by senior trade officers and should not be left on the sidelines. Bringing added value to the business is part of the philosophy of Bank Leumi's Chief Risk Officer, Dr. Hedva Ber, who focuses on real-time risk management.
Bank Leumi has developed a clear competitive advantage in managing the risk profile of its commercial and corporate credit portfolio. This is a far more complex challenge than in retail banking, where the methodologies are better established and the metrics more widely understood. Corporate portfolios are less homogenous because they reflect a wide variety of business needs. Moreover – and this is one of the key differences in practice – concentrations of credit risk (i.e., the risk profile of a group of connected obligors, a sector, a geography or a significant obligor) can have a big impact on the bank's total portfolio. The situation is particularly challenging for a bank whose commercial and corporate portfolio mainly consists of untraded companies that have no external credit rating.
Developing a credit risk methodology
Bank Leumi therefore decided to develop its own commercial and corporate credit risk methodology and an advanced risk architecture specifically designed to support it.
"There is no system on the market that can meet all of the generic business requirements for both credit rating and portfolio management, let alone those that are specific to an institution such as Leumi," says Galinson. This being the case, the planning stage was crucially important for setting out requirements to ensure that nothing would be overlooked during the implementation. Leumi therefore needed a vendor that was not simply a software provider, but rather a partner with deep experience of building best-fit solutions for credit risk management. Another equally important requirement was to build a single credit risk database that would support all of the functionalities of the credit risk management system. "These two criteria clearly pointed to SAS as the partner of choice," says Galinson.
To meet the need for a robust single risk management database the bank deployed the SAS Detail Data Store (a data model), which ensures consistency in the flow of data. Data that is updated or refreshed by one function is immediately ready for use by all the others; information is optimized on a continuous basis.
Following the ratings process in a structured way
Bank Leumi developed a lab for building statistical models that would generate risk parameters, such as probability of default (PD), loss given default (LGD) and exposure at default (EAD). These parameters feed into the credit rating module, which is based on 20 types of credit rating questionnaires and three workflows, enabling credit officers to follow the ratings process in a structured way, entering rates such as the risk of the sector based on forecasts from Bank Leumi's Economic Unit. Each completed questionnaire reflects the PD for an individual obligor. One of the beauties of the SAS solution is that Leumi can rerun all of the credit risk questionnaires to get the new PDs should the sector risk, financial ratios or any other forecasts then change.
"The real power of this solution lies in its integration across all the modules," says Galinson. "Sector risk simulation is very complex, with multiple factors at play. The strong modeling and scenario analysis and stress-testing capabilities available in SAS allow us to evaluate the credit risk of the obligor/portfolio, while the SAS Detail Data Store enables us to feed the results of one analysis to the next. Consequently, SAS gives us the power to analyze a variety of concentration risks from many different perspectives, enabling us to identify weak points in the portfolio and to make decisions on how to bring it back into balance."
The next big step for Bank Leumi is to optimize its risk-adjusted return on capital (RAROC) modeling. "This integrated solution enables Bank Leumi to manage on the basis of RAROC, which brings much greater discipline to lending decisions, ensuring that reward is consistently and accurately linked to risk, thereby maximizing real returns," says Galinson.
An evolving credit risk management strategy combined with effective portfolio management were critical success factors if Leumi was to achieve its objectives of superior shareholder returns in a competitive environment and with high capital reserves.
Greater discipline in lending decisions based on Risk-Adjusted Return on Capital (RAROC) and enhanced ability to manage concentrations, helping to reduce the bank's risk while ensuring higher than average returns.


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My Work Week
31 comments:
- Rachel said...
I was introduced to your podcast, book, and blog through the knitmore girls. My copy of Coastal Knits came this weekend, and it is a beautiful book. Please tell me you are already working on a second book!
- October 23, 2011 at 9:06 PM
- acornarts said...
Yea! Congrats! I love my copy & thank you to you & your helpers for working so hard so I received mine so quickly!
- October 23, 2011 at 10:29 PM
- Sue said...
I just ordered my copy at the end of last week and cant wait for it to arrive. Hopefully mail from your country to mine doesnt take too long. The patterns look wonderful everytime I see them.
- October 23, 2011 at 11:56 PM
- Unknown said...
I have been meaning to write and thank you... for Nevernotknitting podcasting, for interviewing Hannah, and for co-authoring Coastal Knits! It is such a stupendously gorgeous book!!! I hope you are going to set a standard for others to follow!
Mostly though, I want to thank you and the team that packed and mailed the book to me. In your wisdom, you did a double envelope pack which saved my book from water damage. It arrived on a very wet and windy day, and the postman left it on my steps, vulnerable to the elements. Luckily, no damage was done, but I did open the package holding my breath!
Good luck and get some rest big momma! - October 24, 2011 at 3:32 AM
- Ms. Kimba said...
I got my book and it's lovely!!!! Thank you so much. I was delighted to see it in my mailbox and even more excited to see it opened up.
I don't know which project to start first,, but i think I picked the rocky coast cardigan - October 24, 2011 at 4:02 AM
- Jenn said...
Wow! That is just wonderful! I too want to say thank you to you and Hannah, and all your volunteers. I love the book, and am enjoying poring over it and planning my next projects.
- October 24, 2011 at 5:18 AM
- Monica said...
Mine is on the way, and I am thrilled! Thanks to you and your friends and family for pitching in...
Hope you get to rest a little! - October 24, 2011 at 5:42 AM
- Kristina said...
It is beautiful! I am so excited to try several of the patterns. Thanks to all your hard work, and your helpers, for getting it out so quickly!
- October 24, 2011 at 5:51 AM
- Unknown said...
Congratulations! Now get some rest and get ready for your nest big delivery!
- October 24, 2011 at 5:54 AM
- Silvia M. said...
I got mine already and I love it. Thanks!
- October 24, 2011 at 6:22 AM
- Lisa said...
I got my copy last week and it is beautiful! Now I just have to find some time to knit for myself. Stupid Christmas knitting. lol
- October 24, 2011 at 10:08 AM
- Kate said...
No wonder my book arrived so quickly! (And I'd also like to thank you for the double-packaging; even with the Fragile: Do Not Bend or Crush Corners stickers on front and back, mine was folded in half, and all four corners crushed. I can't think what it would look like without the extra packaging!) It's absolutely beautiful. I'm also a CA native, and had been trying to guess on the locales from which you derived your inspiration - I was pretty close on a couple of them, and others are so reminiscent of places that I visit regularly that it will be a joy to knit them all!
- October 24, 2011 at 10:26 AM
- knittybarb said...
Alana - the book is completely beautiful. When you look through it, the care that you and Hannah put into producing it is very obvious. I hope there will be another book from the two of you!
- October 24, 2011 at 11:09 AM
- Unknown said...
Oh my Goodness! That is so good, I'm really happy for you of how well this is going!
- October 24, 2011 at 12:52 PM
- Amy Olsen said...
Got my book and have big plans in store. Waiting for my yarn to arrive though! Great work!
- October 24, 2011 at 2:08 PM
- Keppy Girl Knits said...
Congratulations on your wonderful book and the second printing! It truly is a beautiful book!
I hope you can enjoy your family time now!
Charlene - October 24, 2011 at 4:59 PM
- Nuttygal said...
2nd print that is so wonderful. I L-O-V-E my book.
- October 24, 2011 at 6:47 PM
- annmarie said...
I love how this whole project shows from beginning to end the personal involvement of both you and Hannah, as well as your families and friends.
- October 24, 2011 at 7:00 PM
- Unknown said...
Congratulations!! I'm glad that they are printing more, because I need to order mine.
- October 24, 2011 at 7:35 PM
- Kerry McArthur, MPH, RD, CDN said...
I got my copy last week, too, and can't wait to finish all my WIPs and cast on for something in your gorgeous book. Congratulations on such a beautiful product!
- October 24, 2011 at 7:43 PM
- Tully Family said...
CONGRATS & thank you for sending my copy so quickly! I'm itching to get started! :)
- October 24, 2011 at 7:45 PM
Congratulations on your beautiful new book! Good luck on your projects for the next 2 weeks - they are gorgeous!
- October 25, 2011 at 2:39 AM
- Regina said...
Well, thanks for getting the books in the mail. I love mine! You both did a wonderful job - everything about them. Congrats on the second printing.
- October 25, 2011 at 4:00 PM
- Betsy said...
I got mine and I love it. Hoping there will be a part 2....After the baby comes of course. :-)
- October 25, 2011 at 5:39 PM
- VTwin said...
Wow, and one of those was mine! Thankful it was put inside a second mailer that was rain proof.
- October 27, 2011 at 9:38 AM
- Marit said...
Thank you for a wonderful book! I ca'nt stop looking at all the beautiful pictures of project to knit and nature! Love it!
- October 28, 2011 at 12:42 AM
- nicole said...
I got my copy today. And I hate to tell you this but even though you put the FRAGILE sticker on the flat mailing envelope on both sides, the mailman folded it in two and stuffed in my po box. Doesn't look like any permanent damage has been done...it's just aggravating that they did it. I'll put it under some heavy books to flatten it out. And then I'm off to knit some wonderful designs...ty!
- October 28, 2011 at 1:18 PM
- autumngeisha said...
Congratulations! It is a gorgeous and inspiring book and my absolute favorite knitting book so far. That is saying a lot, since I own hundreds! I intend to knit every single project...they are all beautiful!
- October 31, 2011 at 6:49 AM
- Penny said...
Oh my!
- November 6, 2011 at 1:47 PM
listening to your pod ! nice so far !!! im inspired !
- November 14, 2011 at 10:01 PM
just started listening to your pod, ventured to your blog ...love it so far ! congrats on the podcast and book...
- November 14, 2011 at 10:02 PM

subset: commoncrawl


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Latin Quarters
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Product Group |
Dress |
Sub Group |
Shirt |
Body Fit |
Classic Fit |
Body Length |
Long |
Sleeve Length | Half Sleeve |
Fabric Type | Denim |
Fabric Category | Woven |
Fabric Composition | 100% Cotton |
Ocassion | Casual |
Wasing Care | Machine Wash |
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Winter Beige and Aqua Blue Newborn Tassels Hat
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Every year presents a new apocalypse for the film industry and every year sees movies and theaters evolving to match the increasingly strange age that we live in. However, Hollywood's evolution may not be happening fast enough to win back certain audiences. A new Harris Poll asked Americans about their moviegoing habits and the results are a fascinating combination of the surprising and the not-so-surprising.
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Products bearing the AP seal of the Art & Creative Materials Institute, Inc. (ACMI) are certified non-toxic. A product can be certified non-toxic only if it contains no materials in sufficient quantities to be toxic or injurious to humans, or to cause acute or chronic health problems.
PBk11-Mars Black
PW6-Titanium White
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iron oxides
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Titanium White has excellent permanence and lightfastness.
Titanium dioxide is highly stable and is regarded as non-toxic.
Titanium is the ninth most abundant element in the Earth's crust, however mineral deposits that are economical to mine are less common. Titanium dioxide was first discovered in 1821, although it could not be mass produced until 1919. Widespread use of the pigment began in the 1940s. Since that time, it has become the most commonly used white pigment. The name comes from the Latin word Titan, the name for the elder brother of Kronos and ancestor of the Titans, and from the Greek word tito, meaning day or sun.
PG17-Chromium Oxide Green
chromium oxide
Chromium Oxide Green is a dull, dense, willow or pale green color that is completely opaque. It has an average drying time and a low tinting strength. It is fairly flexible in oil form and is suitable for all purposes and mediums. This pigment is less versatile in mixtures than Viridian and Phthalocyanine Green, but mixes well with other colors without overpowering them.
Chromium Oxide Green has excellent permanence, even at high temperatures.
Chromium Oxide Green is slightly toxic. Evidence of Chromium(III) carcinogenicity is inconclusive. Chromium(III) salts appear in greenish pigments such as PG17. Chromium(VI) salts, which appear in yellowish pigments, have been proven to cause cancer.
Louis-Nicolas Vauquelin discovered the element chromium in lead chromate in 1797. It began to be used as an enamel and ceramic color in 1809, but it had limited use as a pigment until 1862, because of its cost. It is the most commonly used green for military camouflage because it appears the same shade as living foliage under infrared light.
PY42-Yellow Iron Oxide
iron(III)-oxide, hydrated
Fe2O3 • H2O
Yellow Ochre provides artists with earthtones from cream to brown. It has good hiding power, produces a quick drying paint, and can be safely mixed with other pigments. Its transparency varies widely from opaque shades to more transparent ones, which are valued for their use as glazes. If gypsum is present, Yellow Ochre is not suitable for frescoing. (See Brown Ochre, PY43.) PY42 is made from synthetic iron oxides. PY43 is made from natural iron oxide.
Yellow Ochre has excellent permanence because ochres are some of the most permanent pigments available.
Yellow Ochre is non-toxic unless it contains manganese.
Ochre comes from the Greek word ochros, meaning pale yellow. It was one of the first pigments to be used by human beings, and evidence of its use has been found at 300,000 year old sites in France and the former Czechoslovakia.
PR101-Red Iron Oxide
earth, synthetic
iron oxides (synthetic), iron oxide, silica, alumina, lime, and magnesia or hydrated iron oxide
Fe2O2 or Fe2O3 x H2O
Red iron oxide varies in hue and transparency, depending on hydration and slight impurities. Indian Red is a slightly duller, deep brick hue with a bluish undertone. It is very dense and opaque, with excellent tinting strength and covering power. It is dependable when mixing with all other permanent pigments and yields good flesh tints when mixed with Zinc White. It is the synthetic version of PR102, which is a pigment made from earth reds, or natural red iron oxides, and the names applied to PR101 and PR102 often overlap. The synthetic red iron oxides have mostly replaced natural red iron oxides and are brighter, stronger, finer, and more permanent. Indian Red is the highest grade bluish shade. Light Red, English Red, and Venetian Red are yellowish shades. Mars Violet is a dull and subdued bluish or purplish oxide.
Red iron oxide is very lightfast with excellent permanence.
Red iron oxide has no significant hazards.
Natural red iron oxide comes from the mineral ore hematite, called bloodstone by the ancient Greeks from the word hema, meaning blood. It is one of the oldest pigments, has been used by every major civilization, and was an important mineral for medieval alchemists. It was not widely used in artists' materials until the 17th century and was not produced in large quantities until the 18th century.
UPC Code: 9323926008433


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Detractors of Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi breached the security perimeter of the presidential palace in Cairo today.
The Associated Press' Sarah El Deeb reports via Twitter that protesters reached the palace and some of them scrawled graffiti on its walls.
"Have some shame," one of the scrawls read.
Entering its third week, the rift between Morsi's Islamist government and the secular and young opposition has deepened. As we reported, during a national, televised address on Thursday, Morsi asked to meet with opposition leaders on Saturday, but his call was rejected.
At issue here are two things: A presidential decree that gives Morsi near-absolute power and a draft constitution that critics say is no improvement from the one the country had while Hosni Mubarak was in power.
Today, we're seeing dueling protests from supporters and detractors. The New York Times reports:
"Thousands of pro-government Islamists attended the funeral of two men killed in clashes on Wednesday outside the presidential palace, the site of continuing demonstrations by the opposition. "With blood and soul, we redeem Islam," they chanted, while calling opposition leaders "murderers" the Associated Press reported.
"Simultaneously, thousands of opposition protesters streamed in separate marches toward the presidential palace, gathering there to shout "Leave!, Leave," even though Mr. Morsi does not make his residence in the building. Speakers accused the Muslim Brotherhood, which Mr. Morsi once helped lead, of sparking the violence by sending 'hired thugs' to destroy a tent camp set up by the president's opponents, the news agency reported."
The Guardian gets at the big picture, here, by saying that both sides seem to be accusing each other of wanting to destroy Egypt.
On its live blog, The Guardian reports:
"Picking up on Morsi's black-and-white depiction of the clashes as 'the people' versus 'thugs,' the Muslim Brotherhood caricatures the opposition as a ragtag band of monkey-wrenchers out to undermine democracy.
"There seems to be little room, in the current rhetoric from the Brotherhood or the president, for the possibility that the opposition demands are legitimate, or that the opposition voice is an Egyptian voice, one that is out for something greater or subtler than the destruction of the state."
By late evening in Egypt, there was a sign that perhaps Morsi was trying to appease his opposition: The AP reports that his government announced it would delay the expatriate vote on the draft constitution, which was supposed to start tomorrow. The opposition had pointed to the vote as a reason why meeting with Morsi Saturday wouldn't accomplish anything.
Copyright 2020 NPR. To see more, visit https://www.npr.org.


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In this week's Current Climate, Big Oil strikes back, AI companies look to the nuclear option and the impact of decarbonizing cement.
Big Oil Strikes Back
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The Preaching of John the Baptist.* 1In the fifteenth year of the reign of Tiberius Caesar,* when Pontius Pilate was governor of Judea,a and Herod was tetrarch of Galilee, and his brother Philip tetrarch of the region of Ituraea and Trachonitis, and Lysanias was tetrarch of Abilene, 2during the high priesthood of Annas and Caiaphas,* the word of God came to Johnb the son of Zechariah in the desert. 3* He went throughout [the] whole region of the Jordan, proclaiming a baptism of repentance for the forgiveness of sins,c 4* as it is written in the book of the words of the prophet Isaiah:d
"A voice of one crying out in the desert:
'Prepare the way of the Lord,e
make straight his paths.
5Every valley shall be filled
and every mountain and hill shall be made low.
The winding roads shall be made straight,
and the rough ways made smooth,
6and all flesh shall see the salvation of God.'"f
7He said to the crowds who came out to be baptized by him, "You brood of vipers! Who warned you to flee from the coming wrath?g 8Produce good fruits as evidence of your repentance; and do not begin to say to yourselves, 'We have Abraham as our father,' for I tell you, God can raise up children to Abraham from these stones.h 9Even now the ax lies at the root of the trees. Therefore every tree that does not produce good fruit will be cut down and thrown into the fire."i
10And the crowds asked him, "What then should we do?" 11He said to them in reply, "Whoever has two tunics should share with the person who has none. And whoever has food should do likewise." 12Even tax collectors came to be baptized and they said to him, "Teacher, what should we do?"j 13He answered them, "Stop collecting more than what is prescribed." 14Soldiers also asked him, "And what is it that we should do?" He told them, "Do not practice extortion, do not falsely accuse anyone, and be satisfied with your wages."
15k Now the people were filled with expectation, and all were asking in their hearts whether John might be the Messiah. 16* John answered them all, saying,l "I am baptizing you with water, but one mightier than I is coming. I am not worthy to loosen the thongs of his sandals. He will baptize you with the holy Spirit and fire. 17His winnowing fan* is in his hand to clear his threshing floor and to gather the wheat into his barn, but the chaff he will burn with unquenchable fire."m 18Exhorting them in many other ways, he preached good news to the people. 19* Now Herod the tetrarch,n who had been censured by him because of Herodias, his brother's wife, and because of all the evil deeds Herod had committed, 20added still another to these by [also] putting John in prison.
The Baptism of Jesus.* 21o After all the people had been baptized and Jesus also had been baptized and was praying,* heaven was opened 22* p and the holy Spirit descended upon him in bodily form like a dove. And a voice came from heaven, "You are my beloved Son; with you I am well pleased."
The Genealogy of Jesus.* 23q When Jesus began his ministry he was about thirty years of age. He was the son, as was thought, of Joseph, the son of Heli,r 24the son of Matthat, the son of Levi, the son of Melchi, the son of Jannai, the son of Joseph, 25the son of Mattathias, the son of Amos, the son of Nahum, the son of Esli, the son of Naggai, 26the son of Maath, the son of Mattathias, the son of Semein, the son of Josech, the son of Joda, 27the son of Joanan, the son of Rhesa, the son of Zerubbabel, the son of Shealtiel, the son of Neri,s 28the son of Melchi, the son of Addi, the son of Cosam, the son of Elmadam, the son of Er, 29the son of Joshua, the son of Eliezer, the son of Jorim, the son of Matthat, the son of Levi, 30the son of Simeon, the son of Judah, the son of Joseph, the son of Jonam, the son of Eliakim, 31t the son of Melea, the son of Menna, the son of Mattatha, the son of Nathan, the son of David,* 32the son of Jesse,u the son of Obed, the son of Boaz, the son of Sala, the son of Nahshon, 33the son of Amminadab, the son of Admin, the son of Arni, the son of Hezron, the son of Perez,v the son of Judah,w 34the son of Jacob, the son of Isaac, the son of Abraham,x the son of Terah, the son of Nahor, 35the son of Serug, the son of Reu, the son of Peleg, the son of Eber, the son of Shelah, 36the son of Cainan, the son of Arphaxad, the son of Shem,y the son of Noah, the son of Lamech, 37the son of Methuselah, the son of Enoch, the son of Jared, the son of Mahalaleel, the son of Cainan, 38the son of Enos, the son of Seth, the son of Adam,z the son of God.
* [3:1–20] Although Luke is indebted in this section to his sources, the Gospel of Mark and a collection of sayings of John the Baptist, he has clearly marked this introduction to the ministry of Jesus with his own individual style. Just as the gospel began with a long periodic sentence (Lk 1:1–4), so too this section (Lk 3:1–2). He casts the call of John the Baptist in the form of an Old Testament prophetic call (Lk 3:2) and extends the quotation from Isaiah found in Mk 1:3 (Is 40:3) by the addition of Is 40:4–5 in Lk 3:5–6. In doing so, he presents his theme of the universality of salvation, which he has announced earlier in the words of Simeon (Lk 2:30–32). Moreover, in describing the expectation of the people (Lk 3:15), Luke is characterizing the time of John's preaching in the same way as he had earlier described the situation of other devout Israelites in the infancy narrative (Lk 2:25–26, 37–38). In Lk 3:7–18 Luke presents the preaching of John the Baptist who urges the crowds to reform in view of the coming wrath (Lk 3:7, 9: eschatological preaching), and who offers the crowds certain standards for reforming social conduct (Lk 3:10–14: ethical preaching), and who announces to the crowds the coming of one mightier than he (Lk 3:15–18: messianic preaching).
* [3:1] Tiberius Caesar: Tiberius succeeded Augustus as emperor in A.D. 14 and reigned until A.D. 37. The fifteenth year of his reign, depending on the method of calculating his first regnal year, would have fallen between A.D. 27 and 29. Pontius Pilate: prefect of Judea from A.D. 26 to 36. The Jewish historian Josephus describes him as a greedy and ruthless prefect who had little regard for the local Jewish population and their religious practices (see Lk 13:1). Herod: i.e., Herod Antipas, the son of Herod the Great. He ruled over Galilee and Perea from 4 B.C. to A.D. 39. His official title tetrarch means literally, "ruler of a quarter," but came to designate any subordinate prince. Philip: also a son of Herod the Great, tetrarch of the territory to the north and east of the Sea of Galilee from 4 B.C. to A.D. 34. Only two small areas of this territory are mentioned by Luke. Lysanias: nothing is known about this Lysanias who is said here to have been tetrarch of Abilene, a territory northwest of Damascus.
* [3:2] During the high priesthood of Annas and Caiaphas: after situating the call of John the Baptist in terms of the civil rulers of the period, Luke now mentions the religious leadership of Palestine (see note on Lk 1:5). Annas had been high priest A.D. 6–15. After being deposed by the Romans in A.D. 15 he was succeeded by various members of his family and eventually by his son-in-law, Caiaphas, who was high priest A.D. 18–36. Luke refers to Annas as high priest at this time (but see Jn 18:13, 19), possibly because of the continuing influence of Annas or because the title continued to be used for the ex-high priest. The word of God came to John: Luke is alone among the New Testament writers in associating the preaching of John with a call from God. Luke is thereby identifying John with the prophets whose ministries began with similar calls. In Lk 7:26 John will be described as "more than a prophet"; he is also the precursor of Jesus (Lk 7:27), a transitional figure inaugurating the period of the fulfillment of prophecy and promise.
* [3:4] The Essenes from Qumran used the same passage to explain why their community was in the desert studying and observing the law and the prophets (1QS 8:12–15).
* [3:16] He will baptize you with the holy Spirit and fire: in contrast to John's baptism with water, Jesus is said to baptize with the holy Spirit and with fire. From the point of view of the early Christian community, the Spirit and fire must have been understood in the light of the fire symbolism of the pouring out of the Spirit at Pentecost (Acts 2:1–4); but as part of John's preaching, the Spirit and fire should be related to their purifying and refining characteristics (Ez 36:25–27; Mal 3:2–3). See note on Mt 3:11.
* [3:17] Winnowing fan: see note on Mt 3:12.
* [3:19–20] Luke separates the ministry of John the Baptist from that of Jesus by reporting the imprisonment of John before the baptism of Jesus (Lk 3:21–22). Luke uses this literary device to serve his understanding of the periods of salvation history. With John the Baptist, the time of promise, the period of Israel, comes to an end; with the baptism of Jesus and the descent of the Spirit upon him, the time of fulfillment, the period of Jesus, begins. In his second volume, the Acts of the Apostles, Luke will introduce the third epoch in salvation history, the period of the church.
* [3:21–22] This episode in Luke focuses on the heavenly message identifying Jesus as Son and, through the allusion to Is 42:1, as Servant of Yahweh. The relationship of Jesus to the Father has already been announced in the infancy narrative (Lk 1:32, 35; 2:49); it occurs here at the beginning of Jesus' Galilean ministry and will reappear in Lk 9:35 before another major section of Luke's gospel, the travel narrative (Lk 9:51–19:27). Elsewhere in Luke's writings (Lk 4:18; Acts 10:38), this incident will be interpreted as a type of anointing of Jesus.
* [3:21] Was praying: Luke regularly presents Jesus at prayer at important points in his ministry: here at his baptism; at the choice of the Twelve (Lk 6:12); before Peter's confession (Lk 9:18); at the transfiguration (Lk 9:28); when he teaches his disciples to pray (Lk 11:1); at the Last Supper (Lk 22:32); on the Mount of Olives (Lk 22:41); on the cross (Lk 23:46).
* [3:22] You are my beloved Son; with you I am well pleased: this is the best attested reading in the Greek manuscripts. The Western reading, "You are my Son, this day I have begotten you," is derived from Ps 2:7.
* [3:23–38] Whereas Mt 1:2 begins the genealogy of Jesus with Abraham to emphasize Jesus' bonds with the people of Israel, Luke's universalism leads him to trace the descent of Jesus beyond Israel to Adam and beyond that to God (Lk 3:38) to stress again Jesus' divine sonship.
* [3:31] The son of Nathan, the son of David: in keeping with Jesus' prophetic role in Luke and Acts (e.g., Lk 7:16, 39; 9:8; 13:33; 24:19; Acts 3:22–23; 7:37) Luke traces Jesus' Davidic ancestry through the prophet Nathan (see 2 Sm 7:2) rather than through King Solomon, as Mt 1:6–7.
a. [3:1–20] Mt 3:1–12; Mk 1:1–8; Jn 1:19–28.
c. [3:3] Acts 13:24; 19:4.
k. [3:15–16] Acts 13:25.
l. [3:16] 7:19–20; Jn 1:27; Acts 1:5; 11:16.
n. [3:19–20] Mt 14:3–4; Mk 6:17–18.
o. [3:21–22] Mt 3:13–17; Mk 1:9–11.
p. [3:22] 9:35; Ps 2:7; Is 42:1; Mt 12:18; 17:5; Mk 9:7; Jn 1:32; 2 Pt 1:17.
s. [3:27] 1 Chr 3:17; Ez 3:2.
v. [3:31–33] Ru 4:17–22; 1 Chr 2:1–15.
x. [3:34] Gn 21:3; 25:26; 1 Chr 1:34; 28:34.
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Gutter Cleaning Profs provide high-quality and affordable gutter cleaning and repair services in Lytham St Anne's, Lancashire. No matter how big or small the job is, our team can help.
Gutter Cleaning Specialists in Lytham St Anne's
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text:
Galaxy Dust Matte Purple Bronze Vinyl Wrap
Item Specification:
Thickness of film (C=10 micron): 15C±0.5C
Thickness of film with release liner: 31C±0.5C
Type of film: Hybrid vinyl film with air channels (Designed for vehicle exterior with prefect paint condition)
Glue: Solvent based adhesive, odor: solvent odor (Medium Tack)
Release liner: White silicone-coated paper with double-sided polyethylene coating, small square air release channels, origin Germany
Storing period: 2 years if stored in +10°С to +20°С for optimal quality, relative humidity 50%, in original package, away from direct sun light, clean and dry place
Indoor life: 4 years when followed rules of application and use
Outdoor life: 3 years when followed rules of application and use
Application: from +10°С to +20°С, usage from -30°С to +30°С
Dimensional stability: shrinkage less than 5%
Plastification: between 27%-35%
Breaking Strength: 22.7 N/10mm (Average)
Test Method: ASTM D3759/D3759M-057.4 N/10mm (Average)
Test Method: ASTM D3330/D3330-04
Light Ageing in UV Exposure:
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Lamp type: UVA-3408h UV at (60±2.5)€žƒ BPT, 0.89 W/ (m2'¬¢nm)@340nm, 5h condensation at (50±2.5)€žƒ BPT, Exposure duration: 52h
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David "Deacon" Jones, a hall of fame defensive lineman credited with coining the term "sack" for how he would tackle opposing teams' quarterbacks, has died.
He was 74.
According to the NFL's Washington Redskins, the last team Jones played for, he "passed away [Monday] from natural causes at his home in Southern California."
The Pro Football Hall of Fame says of Jones that, "blessed with speed, agility, and quickness, the 'Deacon' became one of the finest pass rushers in the business." In the 1960s, he "teamed with tackle Merlin Olsen to give Los Angeles a perennial All-Pro left side of the defensive line." They were joined on the Rams' line by Rosey Grier and Lamar Lundy to form what became known as the "fearsome foursome." (Olsen died in March 2010; our post about him is here. Lundy died in 2007.)
Over the course of his NFL career, the hall of fame says, Jones:
"Won unanimous all-league honors six straight years from 1965 through 1970. He also played in seven straight Pro Bowls, 1965-1971, and was selected to an eighth in 1973. In both 1967 and 1968, he was chosen the top defensive player in the NFL by one major news service."
He retired after the 1974 season.
Although he's the father of the sack — or at least the word used for the tackling of a quarterback behind the line of scrimmage — Jones isn't among the all-team leaders in that statistic. But NFL.com says that's only because:
"Sacks weren't kept as an official NFL statistic until 1982. Had they been kept far earlier, few doubt Jones would have been among the NFL's all-time leaders. According to the Rams' media guide, Jones recorded a team-best 159.5 sacks with the franchise and 173.5 in his career. He recorded double-digit sacks seven times with the Rams and became the first defensive lineman to post 100 solo tackles in a season (1967)."
The Associated Press adds that "Jones also had several small acting roles both during and after his playing career. He was a guest star on a handful of television shows — including episodes of Bewitched, The Brady Bunch and The Odd Couple — and appeared in the 1978 Warren Beatty film Heaven Can Wait."
Copyright 2021 NPR. To see more, visit https://www.npr.org.


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As companies attempt to cope with an economic downturn and the United States fights a war on terrorism, many wonder whether the long-term health of the US economy will be undermined. The answer depends on what happens to the productivity growth rate—the main determinant of how fast the economy can grow. At issue is whether the near doubling of US productivity growth rates during the late 1990s, from 1.4 percent (1972–95) to 2.5 percent (1995–2000), can continue.
Our yearlong research1 indicates that many of the product, service, and process innovations underlying the productivity acceleration of the late 1990s will continue to generate productivity growth rates above the 1972–95 trend for the next several years, although probably not as high as those of 1995 to 1999. Higher productivity, in turn, will boost economic growth.
Surprisingly, the primary source of the productivity gains of 1995 to 1999 was not increased demand resulting from the stock market bubble, as some economists have claimed. Nor was information technology the source, though companies accelerated the pace of their IT investments during those years.2 Rather, managerial and technological innovations in only six highly competitive industries—wholesale trade, retail trade, securities, semiconductors, computer manufacturing, and telecommunications—were the most important causes (Exhibit 1).3 The other 70 percent of the economy contributed a mix of small productivity gains and losses that offset each other. In addition, cyclical demand factors were important in some parts of the economy.
It is not unusual, we found, for only a small number of sectors to experience a productivity jump during any four-year period. But in the late 1990s, these six sectors, departing from the norm, either enjoyed extremely large leaps in productivity (for instance, semiconductors and computer manufacturing) or accounted for a large share of employment (retail and wholesale).
At the national level, the relationship between IT spending and productivity is unclear. Many sectors other than the six jumping ones increased their pace of IT investment but experienced stagnant or even slower productivity growth (Exhibit 2). We found an inconclusive correlation between the acceleration of IT investments and changes in productivity growth. In fact, taken as a group, the other 53 economic sectors had almost no productivity growth.
The challenge, then, was to understand what caused the productivity acceleration in the six key sectors. We did a detailed study of these sectors, as well as three others that invested heavily in IT but failed to boost productivity—hotels, long-distance data telephony, and retail banking.
Explaining the 1995 productivity acceleration
Within the six jumping sectors, the most important cause of the productivity acceleration after 1995 was fundamental changes in the way companies deliver products and services. Sometimes these innovations were aided by technology (whether new or old), sometimes not. In all six sectors, high or increasing competitive intensity was essential to the spread of innovation, and in two sectors, regulatory changes played an important role in raising that intensity. Cyclical demand factors and a shift in consumer purchasing patterns toward higher-value goods were important in explaining the acceleration of productivity in retail, wholesale, and securities.
Structural factors: Competition and innovation
The bulk of the acceleration in productivity after 1995 can be traced to managerial and technological innovations that improved the basic operations of companies. These innovations were structural and are likely to persist. Sometimes, the catalyst was a dominant player with a superior business model; other times, it was managers using new technology to redesign core operations.
In general-merchandise retailing, productivity growth more than tripled after 1995 because competitors started more rapidly adopting Wal-Mart's innovations—including the large-scale ("big-box") format, "everyday low prices," economies of scale in warehouse logistics and purchasing, and electronic data interchange (EDI) with suppliers (see "Retail: The Wal-Mart effect"). As a result, Wal-Mart's competitors increased their productivity by 28 percent from 1995 to 1999, while Wal-Mart itself raised the bar further by increasing its own productivity by an additional 22 percent. Although e-commerce grew rapidly during this period, its penetration (0.9 percent of retail sales in 2000) was too low to make a difference in overall retail productivity. We estimate that Internet commerce contributed less than 0.01 percentage points to the 1.33 percent jump in economy-wide productivity growth.
The operations of wholesalers underwent similarly dramatic changes during the middle of the 1990s as new warehouse-management systems were adopted (Exhibit 3). Pharmaceuticals wholesalers, for instance, responded to increasing price pressure from large retailers by automating distribution centers. Because each center keeps an inventory of tens of thousands of different items, stocking, picking, and shipping have traditionally been highly labor-intensive. The combination of pre-1995 hardware (bar codes, scanners, picking machines) and software for tracking and controlling inventory allowed wholesalers to automate their flow of goods partially and to increase their labor productivity greatly.
In computer manufacturing, nearly all of the productivity acceleration was due to innovations outside the sector itself (see "Computers: Why the party's over"). Technological improvements in microprocessors and other components (memory, storage devices), as well as the integration of new components (CD-ROMs, DVDs), caused an acceleration in the value of computers produced. At the same time, the popularization of the Internet and the accelerating processing requirements of Microsoft's Windows operating systems (Exhibit 4) caused a spike in demand for more powerful personal computers. These two factors further contributed to the high productivity growth in the manufacture of computers and semiconductors.
Productivity growth in the semiconductor industry accelerated mainly because the performance of the average chip did. Largely in response to competitive pressure from Advanced Micro Devices, Intel took less time to bring out new and better chips than it had done previously. The securities industry was the only sector we studied in which the Internet materially boosted productivity. At the end of 1999, roughly 40 percent of retail securities trades were being conducted on-line, up from virtually zero in 1995, and a given number of frontline employees can now broker ten times as many trades as they could then. Competition from on-line discount brokers, such as E*Trade and Charles Schwab, was critical to the rapid diffusion of these innovations in the traditional brokerage houses.
Regulatory changes increased competition and had a significant effect on productivity in some cases. In the securities industry, the US Securities and Exchange Commission's order-handling and 16th rules4 sharply reduced transaction costs, allowing institutional investors to take advantage of increasingly small price anomalies and boosting trading volumes. In the telecom sector, the licensing of new spectrum for mobile telephony heightened competition and sparked faster price decreases, lifting both penetration and usage. In both the securities industry and the telecom sector, larger volumes allowed industry players to leverage fixed costs.
Cyclical demand factors
Some of the acceleration in productivity after 1995 was due to demand factors that may not be sustainable. In the securities industry, the soaring stock market led to productivity advances in three different ways (Exhibit 5). First, lofty index values (particularly Nasdaq's) fueled a surge in on-line retail trading. Second, they also increased the value of assets under management, boosting the productivity of money managers. Finally, they increased the number and value of initial public offerings and of mergers. These factors explain half of the productivity jump observed in the securities industry.
In general-merchandise retailing, and most likely in the rest of retail and in wholesale, almost half of the measurable productivity jump reflected the higher value of the goods that consumers increasingly favored. Retailing experts believe that the shift was mainly the result of growing confidence, income, and wealth rather than a marked improvement in the retailers' techniques of enticement.
The role of information technology
Contrary to conventional wisdom, the widespread adoption of information and communications technology was not the most important cause of the acceleration in productivity after 1995. Our nine sector case studies clearly show that the relationship between IT and labor productivity is extremely variable.
In rare cases, IT can deliver truly extraordinary productivity improvements, expanding labor capacity by an order of magnitude. As mentioned above, on-line securities trading requires only a fraction of the frontline labor employed in traditional channels. In mobile telecommunications, cellular equipment employing new digital standards made better use of the available spectrum, spurring rapid price declines and a spike in usage. In both cases, the product or service itself, being intangible information that could easily be digitized, was highly susceptible to such improvements.
In most cases, however, IT was just one of many tools that creative managers used to redesign core business processes, products, or services. A significant portion of Wal-Mart's business innovations (such as the big-box format) was independent of IT. Where IT did play a role, it was a necessary but not a sufficient enabler of productivity gains. To reap the full productivity benefits of inventory-management systems or EDI, for instance, a business must implement operational-process changes. The same is true of the automation of warehouse and distribution centers in the wholesale sector.
To understand why IT is not a panacea, we looked at three sectors that invested heavily in IT but experienced no improvement in productivity growth: hotels, the long-distance data portion of the telecom sector, and retail banking (see "Banking: The IT paradox"). Some spending on IT in these sectors and elsewhere in the economy was designed to maintain capabilities, such as investments in Y2K compliance and more rapid upgrades of personal computers to ensure compatibility with emerging Windows standards. Other IT expenditures, on things such as Internet and corporate-networking equipment, were made to generate future rather than immediate productivity benefits. The confluence of these unusual demand factors explains most of the acceleration in IT spending from 1995 to 1999.
It is also possible that IT increases the consumer's convenience in ways that are not fully captured by government productivity measures. Even so, this would not be sufficient to explain the "IT paradox." Hotels invested heavily in creating central reservation systems that provided customers with some unquantifiable value (for instance, immediate, centralized information on the availability of rooms), but the increase in convenience was probably modest. The added convenience of on-line banking also doesn't appear in government productivity measures. But even if it were possible to correct for this measurement problem, the small number of on-line transactions would not have been enough to reverse the deceleration of productivity growth in retail banking.
Some IT investments do not appear to be delivering the intended results, and whether they ever will remains to be seen. Retail banks and hotels, for instance, have collected significant amounts of customer data that they have yet to use productively. Companies in the retail-banking industry bought an average of two PCs per employee from 1995 to 1999. Some of this computing power was not fully utilized and some, it is likely, never will be.5 Long-distance telephone players made enormous investments in metropolitan and long-haul networks that are currently underutilized and will probably remain so for several years to come.
Our conclusion about the effect of IT on productivity is straightforward. IT can be quite valuable when deployed as part of a management plan to reorganize specific core activities of a business. In this respect, it is not different from other forms of capital—new building designs, new materials-handling systems, new semiconductor production tools. But when generic IT solutions are applied to support functions, or when IT represents no more than a "me-too" investment, it is unlikely to move the needle on a company's productivity. A robust explanation of the recent acceleration in productivity must therefore go well beyond IT.
The future of US productivity
If the pattern of the two most recent recessions (1981–82 and 1991–92) holds, the impact of a recession on labor productivity over the next four years will be minimal. Even if the tragic attacks of September 11 cause a sharp decline in productivity growth, we would expect an economic recovery, and thus an uptick, prior to 2005.
The more important question for the longer term is whether the acceleration in productivity from 1995 to 1999 is sustainable. We estimate that at least half of what occurred in the six jumping sectors can be sustained over the next five years. Wal-Mart still enjoys a sizable productivity advantage over its competitors and will continue to force efficiency improvements in the industry. The limited penetration of warehouse automation (now at just 25 percent), and, to a lesser degree, of mobile telephony and on-line trading, leaves room for further growth, and thus productivity gains, in those sectors. Both the computer-manufacturing and semiconductor industries should benefit from a continuation of the current rate of improvement in the performance of microprocessors.
Clearly, however, some of this acceleration will be unsustainable. The burst in demand for personal computers is behind us, and the effects of the stock market bubble on asset valuations, M&A, and securities trading have already largely evaporated. We cannot judge whether consumers will continue to shift their purchasing patterns in favor of higher-value goods at the 1995–99 rate or know what will happen in the portions of the retail and wholesale sectors that we did not study.
A larger source of uncertainty about future productivity growth is the behavior of the rest of the economy. A review of the performance of the other 53 sectors over the past two decades reveals that both their contribution to national productivity growth and their average annual productivity growth rate have been quite small. Those figures, however, show considerable volatility—some of it caused by business cycles and some by changes in industry dynamics and structure. If historical precedents hold, this kind of noncyclical volatility could reduce the national rate of productivity growth over the next four years by 0.1 percentage points annually or increase it by as much as 0.4 percentage points annually.
It is possible that other sectors of the economy will defy the historical trend and experience extraordinary productivity jumps. The key contributor to such jumps would be innovations, such as Wal-Mart's improvements in its business system or on-line securities-trading technology, that streamlined labor-intensive activities or leveraged fixed labor costs. Competition, which could be triggered by regulatory changes, is required to diffuse innovation. A quick scan of the economy revealed several sectors showing the first signs of emerging innovators (such as software; media, including motion pictures; insurance carriers; and depository and nondepository institutions) and of promising regulatory changes (electric, gas, and sanitary services as well as pharmaceuticals). However, the number of these sectors, their share of total employment, and the potential magnitude of their jumps are not impressive. Therefore, we believe, continuing volatility in the rest of the economy's productivity growth rate is likely to encompass the effect of these innovations and regulatory changes.
Although uncertainty about the performance of all these factors makes precise predictions impossible, our analysis indicates that overall productivity growth could be as low as 1.6 percent or as high as 2.5 percent.
Even our low estimate offers ample reason for optimism about the US economy, regardless of what happens in the short term. The six key sectors will continue to generate above-trend productivity growth for at least several more years. No one can predict when and where the next entrepreneurial initiative will strike outside of these sectors. But healthy levels of competition, 20 years of deregulation, and a long tradition of US ingenuity will allow the country's economy to continue to define the productivity frontier.


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If you're looking for a dash of optimism about the future — and who isn't, these days? — you can find it in a rosy new prediction about the planet's ability to produce food for the next half-century.
It comes to us from a trio of researchers at Rockefeller University. Their bottom line: We have more than enough land to grow all the food that the world's increasing population will desire. In fact, farmers' ability to grow more food on less land will even outrun demand for that food, and farmers will abandon land once used to grow crops.
As the researchers put it, "we are confident that we stand on the peak of cropland use, gazing at a wide expanse of land that will be spared for Nature." Globally, they predict that farmers will release an area bigger than Egypt, or the equivalent of ten Iowas.
Now, before you go and cross off "food supply" from your list of things to worry about, I must tell you that some other crystal balls show a darker vision of the future. The United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization, for instance, thinks that feeding humanity in 2050 will require farmers to grow crops on an additional quarter of a million square miles, or five Iowas. There are even scenarios that show agriculture gobbling up natural ecosystems equal in size to the entire U.S.
What produces such wildly different visions of the future? Basically, it comes down to a few key assumptions about supply and demand for food.
The Rockefeller group, for instance, says that demand for meat, and in particular, beef, is not increasing as quickly as some have predicted. Chinese are eating more meat as they get richer, but they are not duplicating the meat-heavy diets of many other countries.
The single most important assumption, however, concerns farmers' ability to increase the amount of food they can grow from each acre of land. The Rockefeller University group assumes that farmers will continue to increase their crop yields at roughly the same pace as they have since 1961 — some 1.7 percent per year. Others, like the FAO and the International Food Policy Research Institute, don't believe that's likely. Yield increases have been much lower — about 1.2 percent per year — over the past 20 years. And that's before one even considers the impact of the climate change, which could be devastating for some regions.
Jesse Ausubel, who led the Rockefeller group, says that it's "arrogant" and "peculiar" to assume that the world's farmers cannot increase their productivity rapidly, if needed. Large gains in crop yields haven't been needed over the past two decades, he says, because food has been relatively abundant.
In fact, Ausubel says, the expansion of crop lands strictly for food production ended twenty years ago; additional land was taken, however, to satisfy the demand for biofuels. But Ausubel expects that expansion to end, too.
Copyright 2021 NPR. To see more, visit https://www.npr.org.


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This placemat is a one-of-a-kind, unique artwork. Even though the design is repeated within the collection, our embroiderers interpret each design individually, combining colours and stitches to create perfectly crafted items. the individual embroiderer will complete 12 Placemats in Matching colours. The artwork features African animals framed in the characteristic Kaross Signature geometric borders.
This placemat is 100% hand-embroidered with acrylic yarn on cotton fabric, and has 100% fade free washability.
The placemat is unlined.


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The PlayStation 2 (PS2) is a home video game console that was developed by Sony Computer Entertainment. It is the successor to the original PlayStation console and is the second installment in the PlayStation lineup of consoles. It was released in 2000 and competed with Sega's Dreamcast, Nintendo's GameCube and Microsoft's Xbox in the sixth generation of video game consoles.
Announced in 1999, the PlayStation 2 offered backwards compatibility for its predecessor's DualShock controller, as well as for its games. The PlayStation 2 is the best-selling video game console of all time, selling over 155 million units, with 150 million confirmed by Sony in 2011. More than 3,874 game titles have been released for the PS2 since launch, and more than 1.5 billion copies have been sold. Sony later manufactured several smaller, lighter revisions of the console known as Slimline models in 2004. In 2006, Sony announced and launched its successor, the PlayStation 3
Tony Hawk is one of the best games of PS2 console.
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