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Reduction of uncertainties through Data Model Integration (DMI)
This article describes how data and models can be combined in a structured way, in order to reduce uncertainties. This process is also called Data Model Integration (DMI). This article describes the criteria which can be used to evaluate models, how to reduce uncertainties, and two DMI-approaches: model calibration and data assimilation.
Application of techniques for data model integration (DMI) are increasingly used in many fields of science, finance, economics, etc. Every day examples are improvement of geophysical model descriptions (flows, water levels, waves), improvements and optimization of daily weather forecasts, detection of errors in data series, on-line identification of stolen credit card use, detection of malfunctioning components in manufacturing processes. How DMI can be used to support monitoring and assessment of marine systems is also schematized in Figure 1.
The one common element is the prior knowledge of the behaviour of a process in the form of an explicit model description, or a set of characteristic data. The second common element is a set of independent or new data. Neither the description of the behaviour and the data are 100% certain – they have uncertainties associated with them. If one has information on the (statistical) nature of the uncertainties, smart mathematical techniques can be used to combine these two information sources and generate new or improved information. Two possible DMI-approaches are:
- Model calibration and calibration or parameter estimation techniques: This approach aims to improve the model and may result in an improved model description (less uncertain).
- (Sequential) data assimilation and data assimilation techniques: This may results in an improved forecast, detection of significant deviation from established patterns (faulty component, credit card use,…).
Error criteria and Goodness of Fit
In geophysical science, DMI is commonly used for model improvement (model calibration) and optimization of operational forecasts (data assimilation). Application of DMI essentially starts with choosing the model quantities of interest that need to be evaluated and compared with data. A quantitative measure needs to be chosen or defined that expresses the agreement between these quantities and the field data. Instead of agreement, we often also use the words "difference", "disagreement", "mismatch", "misfit" or "error". Least squares criteria are commonly used measures for this, since they are symmetric and have favourable properties from a theoretical point of view. Another name for a least squares criterion is "Cost Function (CF)". This should be minimal to have the best agreement. Another formulation is a "Goodness-of-Fit (GoF)" criterion (most commonly also defined as a quadratic term). The GoF needs to be maximized to obtain maximum agreement. The relation is: GoF = - log (CF). The key issue of using such quantitative measures is that they are compact, quantitative, objective, reproducible, transferable, and are easy to use in automated evaluation procedures and software.
Role and reduction of uncertainties
Uncertainties in models and data
Models are never "true". Even the very best models provide schematised representations of the real world. Examples are flow models, models for transport and spreading, models for wave propagation, rainfall run-off models and morphological models. They are limited to the representation of those real world phenomena that are of specific practical interest, characterised by associated temporal and spatial scales of interest. In the derivation of these models all kind of simplifications and approximations have been applied. These are often formulated as "errors" or "uncertainties" in the model. These uncertainties occur in:
- the model concept as such,
- in the various model parameters,
- the driving forces,
- in the modelling result.
- Moreover, a model uncertainty of general nature is associated with the representativity of model results for observed entities.
Equally, field measurements or observations also suffer from errors or uncertainties. These may be the result of:
- equipment accuracy,
- instrument drift,
- equipment fouling or malfunctioning,
- temporal and spatial sampling frequency,
- data processing and interpretation,
- spatial and temporal representativeness, and other.
As a result of all this, mismatches of model results and observations are virtually unavoidable. Moreover, both sources of information involve errors in their estimate for the true state of the system. The errors in the model at one hand, and measurements on the other, can be of very different type, origin, and magnitude.
Stochastic models
By adding terms for the model uncertainties on the deterministic equations for the model the model is converted into a so-called "stochastic model". Similarly, terms for the observation uncertainties are added to the equation that can formally be written for the measurements. The data assimilation procedures use these new stochastic equations in order to derive the desired optimal result by suitable combination.
Formulation of uncertainty
An important first step to reduce uncertainty is prescribing known (or assumed) uncertainties in the models and data. When dealing with dynamic and spatially distributed models the temporal and spatial (statistical) properties must be considered carefully. In fact, the time and length scales of the uncertainties should be consistent with the process(es) being modelled. Therefore, as for the actual (deterministic) numerical model, process and system knowledge should be used as much as possible in the formulation of the so-called "uncertainty model". The better the uncertainty characteristics of the model and its various parameters, and data series, etc. are known, the more accurate and effective the DMI-technique can be in estimating the desired result and optimising the estimate of a system state and reduction of the uncertainty in that estimate.
Reduction of uncertainty through DMI
Depending on the DMI algorithms that are used, and/or correctness of assumptions, a combination of data and model with known uncertainty (in statistical sense) can lead to (statistically) optimal estimate for the system's state. Such optimal estimates are achieved when the weights in the combination of model outcomes and measurements are based on the uncertainties in both. This is illustrated by a simple example, in which [math]\xi_M[/math] is a model result for some system state variable at some spatial position and time, and the spread [math]\sigma_M[/math] is its uncertainty. Similarly, [math]\xi_0[/math] and [math]\sigma_0[/math] are the corresponding measured value and the uncertainty in the measurement. A (statistically) optimal combination of these two estimates leads to the estimate
[math]\hat\xi = \Large\frac{\xi_M \, {\sigma_0}^2 + \xi_0 \, {\sigma_M}^2}{ {\sigma_0}^2 + {\sigma_M}^2} , [/math]
with a spread [math]\hat\sigma[/math] that satisfies
[math]{\hat\sigma}^{-2} = {\sigma_0}^{-2} + {\sigma_M}^{-2}[/math].
Clearly the uncertainty in the combined estimate is less that the uncertainty in the individual estimates. This example reflects the essence of DMI and in applications of structured DMI techniques to real life numerical models (dealing with many grid points and state variables, complex and non-linear dynamics, high model computation times, etc.) the above principle is 'merely' generalised in an appropriate way.
Calibration of models
The main goal of a model calibration is the identification of uncertain model parameters. The model is assumed to be perfect, except for a number of not well known parameters or "control variables". These control variables may originate from parameterisations of uncertain coefficients in the model, initial or boundary conditions, and/or the external forcing. Measurements are used to obtain estimates for these parameters. These estimates are the values of these parameters for which, in some sense, the model outcomes agree best with the measurements. Therefore calibration is often also called "model fitting" or "parameter estimation". Uncertainties in the measurements can be taken into account, and be used in the definition of the calibration criterion (see below) and the assessment of the uncertainties in the identified model parameters. Model calibration should not be confused with model validation, for which a set of independent data is used and model forcing and parameters are fixed.
Calibration is usually translated into an optimisation problem where some Goodness of Fit (GOF) or Cost Function (CF) must be maximised or minimised. A GOF or CF provides a formalised and quantitative description of the agreement between measurements and the corresponding model outcomes. In this way the (main) features or targets that the model must reproduce can be specified. In the formulation of the GOF or CF the uncertainties in the data can explicitly be taken into account. For example, data points with the highest accuracy will have the largest "weight" in – or contribution to - the CF, and thus have the largest impact on the final estimate for the model parameters.
Statistical interpretation
Although calibration is often formulated and carried out in a deterministic sense, a close relation to statistics can be recognised. In fact, a statistical interpretation can be assigned to the comparison of the model outcomes on one hand, and the measurements and (the statistical description of) their uncertainties on the other. On this basis a GOF or CF can be derived, rather than "independently" prescribed. For example, when the estimation is based on Maximum Likelihood (MLH), cost functions of type least squares will be found. The MLH formalism will then automatically also provide a recipe for computing the uncertainties in the parameters' estimates.
Calibration Techniques
When a model calibration is formulated as an optimisation of a GOF or CF, the parameter estimation is virtually a minimisation problem. For special cases, as for example linear models, this minimisation can be done analytically. In the other case it must be relied on numerical techniques. Because of their efficiency (in the sense of the number of model evaluations that is required to find the minimum) gradient descent techniques as for example conjugate gradient or quasi-Newton methods are by far most efficient. A main problem is often the evaluation of the derivatives of the CF, however. For many data driven models (analytical regression models, empirical formulae, Neural Networks, etc.) the derivatives can usually straightforwardly and analytically be computed. For large scale dynamical numerical (flow, wave, transport, morphological, meteorological) models, with often a large number of uncertain parameters, this is certainly not the case and for the computation of gradients the so called adjoint model can be used. The adjoint model is derived from the original model by means of a variational analysis. For descriptions and applications of adjoint modelling see e.g. Chavent (1980[1]), Panchang and O'Brien (1990[2]), Van den Boogaard et al. (1993[3]), Lardner et al. (1993[4]), Mouthaan et al. (1994[5]). A main practical disadvantage of the adjoint is the time and cost of its implementation, however. For computationally less demanding models gradient free (local or global search) minimisation techniques may serve as a reasonable alternative for gradient based methods as long as the number of uncertain parameters is sufficiently low (less than 10, say). An example is the DUD (Doesn't Use Derivatives) technique (Ralston and Jennrich, 1978[6]).
Sequential data assimilation in dynamic (time-stepping) models
Even a well calibrated model may not perform perfectly in forecast mode. Prediction errors can be due to several sources of uncertainties as for example unresolved inaccuracies in the model and/or its parameters, non-stationarities, uncertainties in the elements forming the model's external forcing, etc. To improve a model's skill for operational and/or real time predictions, on-line or sequential DMI or data assimilation techniques are often used.
The usual approach is to construct a statistical description for all model and measurement uncertainties. In this way the uncertainties are modelled in a statistical way rather than strictly physical. The original deterministic model is thus embedded in a stochastic environment. The actual data assimilation then involves a consistent (spatial and temporal) integration of all sources of information, i.e. the model and all observations so far available. Within this combination of model and data the statistics of their uncertainties must carefully be taken into account. After this integration for the period that measurements are available, an optimal initialisation of the model is obtained for a subsequent forecast simulation (in prediction mode). This integration of data and model can be repeated every time when new observations become available – the time window of assimilation and forecasts proceeds stepwise forward in time. In this way the model can adapt to changing system conditions.
Simple techniques
The simplest technique for this is "data insertion". The model is propagated forward in time until a time is reached at which measurements are available. The model values are simply overwritten with measurement values. This overwriting leaves the model unbalanced and typically injects bursts of gravity noise (spurious modes propagating with the speed of gravity) into the model solution. This therefore is generally not a satisfactory method. A further method is Optimal Interpolation. This method modifies model results whenever observations are encountered by adding some fraction of the difference between modelled and measured quantities to the modelled fields, the fraction being determined by the presumably known error covariance structure of the model solution. To the extent that the error covariances are correctly modelled, this method is statistically optimal. It still results in some gravity wave insertion, and extensive efforts have been made to develop so-called "non-linear normal mode initialisation" procedures to remove the effect of this inserted noise from the subsequent analysis.
Kalman filtering
Kalman filtering (Kalman, 1960[7]; Kalman and Bucy, 1961[8]) is nowadays a commonly applied procedure for this form of sequential data assimilation, see e.g. Jazwinsky (1970[9]), Gelb (1974[10]) or Maybeck (1979[11]) for the theoretical background. This approach resembles optimal interpolation, except that it explicitly treats uncertainties in the numerical model dynamics, as well as in the observations and computes the solution error covariances as the model propagates forward in time, rather than assuming that they are known a priori. Originally the Kalman Filter was designed for linear systems. For non-linear systems the algorithm must appropriately be adapted or approximated, e.g. by a repeated linearisation of the model at its current state leading to the Extended Kalman Filter (see e.g. Maybeck, 1979[11]). For applications in tidal flow models with emphasis on storm surge forecasting, see Heemink and Kloosterhuis (1990[12]) or Heemink et al. (1997[13]). Recently new algorithms have been developed that do not require or use a model dependent implementation in the form of a tangent linear model. Important examples include the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) introduced by Evensen (1994[14]; 1997[15]; 2003[16]), and so called reduced-rank approaches (Heemink et al., 1997[13]; Verlaan and Heemink, 1997[17]). Heemink et al. (2001[18]) propose to combine such algorithms. Numerically these generic filter algorithms tend to be more robust for non-linearities in the model than the conventional model dependent approaches such as EKF. Therefore EnKF and reduced rank algorithms may in particular be suited for data assimilation in highly non-linear models. Recent examples of applications in surface hydrology and coastal hydrodynamics are given by El Serafy et al., 2005[19]; El Serafy and Mynett, 2004[20]; Weerts and El Serafy, 2006[21]. Other simplified or related methods are the so-called particle filters, e.g. the Residual Resampling Filter (Isard and Blake, 1998[22]; El Serafy and Weerts, 2006[21]).
Combination with data driven modelling techniques
While filtering techniques have so far been practically applied for conceptual dynamic models, they also provide important new opportunities for combination with data driven models. Given the computational efficiency of data driven models, their combination with on-line sequential data assimilation facilities has a promising potential for operational and real time modelling and forecasting. For hydrology, real time flood forecasting, prediction of water loads in drainage systems, forecasting and control of hydraulic structures such as sluices, weirs or barriers, can be mentioned as relevant applications. For a further discussion on data assimilation in dynamic neural networks, see (Van den Boogaard et al., 2000[23]; Van den Boogaard and Mynett, 2004[24]).
Related articles
See also
A good example of the application of data assimilation techniques can be found in:
- ↑ Chavent, G. 1980.Identification of distributed parameter systems: about the output least square method, its implementation, and identifiability. In Iserman R. (ed), Proc. 5th IFAC Symposium on Identification and System Parameter Estimation. I: 85-97. New York: Pergamon Press.
- ↑ Panchang, V.G., O'Brien, J.J. 1990. On the determination of hydraulic model parameters using the adjoint state formulation. In Davies A.M. (ed.), Modelling Marine Systems, Volume I, Chapter 2: 5-18. Boca Raton, Florida, CRC Press, Inc.
- ↑ Van den Boogaard, H.F.P., Hoogkamer, M.J.J. Heemink, A.W. 1993. Parameter identification in particle models. Stochastic Hydrology and Hydraulics 9(2): 109-130.
- ↑ Lardner, R.W., Al-Rabeh, A.H., Gunay, N. 1993. Optimal estimation of parameters for a two-dimensional model of the Arabian Gulf. Journal of Geophysical Research. 98(C10): 229-242.
- ↑ Mouthaan, E.E.A., A.W. Heemink and K.B. Robaczeswka, 1994.Assimilation of ERS-1 altimeter data in a tidal model of the Continental Shelf, Deutsche Hydrographische Zeitschrift, 285-329.
- ↑ Ralston, M.L. and R.I. Jennrich, 1978. Dud, a derivative-free algorithm for nonlinear least squares. Technometrics, 20, 7-14.
- ↑ Kalman R. E. (1960)."A new approach to linear filtering and prediction problems," Basic Engineering, pp. 35-45.
- ↑ Kalman R. E. and Bucy R. S. (1961). "New Results in linear filtering and prediction theory," Basic Engineering, 83D, pp. 95-108.
- ↑ Jazwinsky A. H. (1970).Stochastic Processes and Filtering Theory. Academic Press.
- ↑ Gelb, A. 1974. Applied Optimal Estimation. Cambridge, Massachusetts: The MIT Press.
- ↑ 11.0 11.1 Maybeck, P.S. 1979.Stochastic Models, Estimation, and Control. Volume 141-1 of Mathematics in Science and Engineering. London: Academic Press, Inc. Ltd.
- ↑ Heemink, A.W., Kloosterhuis, H. 1990. Data assimilation for non-linear tidal models. International Journal for Numerical Methods in Fluids 11(12): 1097-1112.
- ↑ 13.0 13.1 Heemink, A.W., Bolding, K., Verlaan, M. 1997. Storm surge forecasting using Kalman Filtering. Journal Meteorological Society Japn, 75(1B): 305-318.
- ↑ Evensen, G. (1994), Sequential data assimilation with a non-linear quasi-geostrophic model using Monte Carlo methods to forecast error statistics, J. Geophys. Res., 97(17), 905-924.
- ↑ Evensen G. (1997). "Advanced Data Assimilation for strongly non-linear dynamics," Monthly weather review, 125(6), pp. 1342-1345.
- ↑ Evensen, G. (2003).The Ensemble Kalman Filter: theoretical formulation and practical implementation. Ocean Dynamics, 53, 343 – 367.
- ↑ Verlaan, M., Heemink, A.W., 1997. Tidal flow forecasting using reduced-rank square root filters. Stochastic Hydrology and Hydraulics, 11(5): 349-368.
- ↑ Heemink, A.W., Verlaan, M., Segers, A.J. 2001. Variance Reduced Ensemble Kalman Filtering. Monthly Weather Review, 129: 1718-1728.
- ↑ El Serafy, G.Y., Gerritsen H., Mynett, A.E. and Tanaka M.(2005), "Improvement of stratified flow forecasts in the Osaka Bay using the steady state Kalman filter", Proc. 31st IAHR Congress, Seoul, Eds. Byong-Ho Jun, Sang-Il Lee, Il Won Seo, Gye-Woon Choi, 795-804.
- ↑ El Serafy, G.Y. and Mynett, A.E. (2004). Comparison of EKF and EnKF in SOBEK RIVER:Case study Maxau – IJssel, Proc. 6th Int. Conf. on HydroInformatics, Eds. Liong, Phoon & Babovic. World Scientific Publishing Company, ISBN 981-238-787-0,513-520.
- ↑ 21.0 21.1 Weerts, A. and G. Y. El Serafy, 2006. Particle Filtering and Ensemble Kalman Filtering for runoff nowcasting using conceptual rainfall runoff models, Water Resources Research, Vol. 42, No. 9, W09403, doi:10.1029/2005WR004093.
- ↑ Isard M. and Blake A. (1998), CONDENSATION -- conditional density propagation for visual tracking, Int. J. Computer Vision, 29, 1, 5-28.
- ↑ Van den Boogaard, H.F.P., Ten Brummelhuis, P.G.J. Mynett, A.E. 2000. On-Line Data Assimilation in Auto-Regressive Neural Networks. Hydroinformatics 2000 Conference, The University of Engineering, IOWA City, USA, July 23-27, 2000.
- ↑ Van den Boogaard, H.F.P. and A.E. Mynett, 2004. Dynamic neural networks with data assimilation. Hydrological Processes, 18, 1959-1966.
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Elisha and Jehu of Israel.* 1a Elisha the prophet called one of the guild prophets and said to him: "Get ready for a journey. Take this flask of oil with you, and go to Ramoth-gilead. 2When you get there, look for Jehu, son of Jehoshaphat, son of Nimshi. Enter and take him away from his companions and bring him into an inner chamber. 3From the flask you have, pour oil on his head, and say, 'Thus says the LORD: I anoint you king over Israel.' Then open the door and flee without delay."
4The aide (the prophet's aide) went to Ramoth-gilead. 5When he arrived, the commanders of the army were in session. He said, "I have a message for you, commander." Jehu asked, "For which one of us?" "For you, commander," he answered. 6Jehu got up and went into the house. Then the prophet's aide poured the oil on his head and said, "Thus says the LORD, the God of Israel: I anoint you king over the people of the LORD, over Israel. 7* You shall destroy the house of Ahab your master; thus will I avenge the blood of my servants the prophets, and the blood of all the other servants of the LORD shed by Jezebel. 8b The whole house of Ahab shall perish:
I will cut off from Ahab's line every male,
whether bond or free in Israel.
9I will make the house of Ahab like that of Jeroboam, son of Nebat, and like that of Baasha, son of Ahijah. 10In the confines of Jezreel, the dogs shall devour Jezebel so that no one can bury her." Then he opened the door and fled.
11When Jehu rejoined his master's servants, they asked him, "Is all well? Why did that madman come to you?" He replied, "You know that kind of man and his talk." 12But they said, "Tell us another lie!" So he told them, "This is what the prophet's aide said to me, 'Thus says the LORD: I anoint you king over Israel.'" 13At once each took his garment, spread it under Jehu on the bare steps, blew the horn, and cried out, "Jehu is king!"
Death of Joram of Israel. 14c Jehu, son of Jehoshaphat, son of Nimshi, formed a conspiracy against Joram. (Joram, with all Israel, had been besieging Ramoth-gilead against Hazael, king of Aram, 15but had returned to Jezreel to be healed of the wounds the Arameans had inflicted on him in the battle against Hazael, king of Aram.)
Jehu said to them, "If this is what you really want, see that no one escapes from the city to report in Jezreel."
16Then Jehu mounted his chariot and drove to Jezreel, where Joram lay ill and Ahaziah, king of Judah, had come to visit him. 17The watchman standing on the tower in Jezreel saw the troop of Jehu coming and reported, "I see chariots." Joram said, "Get a driver and send him to meet them and to ask whether all is well." 18So a horseman went out to meet him and said, "The king asks, 'Is everything all right?'" Jehu said, "What does it matter to you how things are? Get behind me." The watchman reported to the king, "The messenger has reached them, but is not returning." 19Joram sent a second horseman, who went to them and said, "The king asks, 'Is everything all right?'" "What does it matter to you how things are?" Jehu replied. "Get behind me." 20The watchman reported, "He has reached them, but is not returning. The driving is like that of Jehu, son of Nimshi; he drives like a madman." 21d "Hitch up my chariot," said Joram, and they hitched up his chariot. Then Joram, king of Israel, and Ahaziah, king of Judah, set out, each in his own chariot, to meet Jehu. They reached him near the plot of ground of Naboth the Jezreelite.
22When Joram recognized Jehu, he asked, "Is everything all right, Jehu?" Jehu replied, "How could everything be all right as long as all the harlotry and sorcery* of your mother Jezebel continues?" 23Joram reined about and fled, crying to Ahaziah, "Treason, Ahaziah!" 24But Jehu had drawn his bow and he shot Joram between the shoulders, so that the arrow went through his heart and he collapsed in his chariot. 25Then Jehu said to his adjutant Bidkar, "Take him and throw him into the plot of ground in the field of Naboth the Jezreelite. For remember when you and I were driving teams behind Ahab his father, the LORD delivered this oracle against him: 26As surely as I saw yesterday the blood of Naboth and the blood of his sons—oracle of the LORD—I will repay you for it in that very plot of ground—oracle of the LORD. So now take him and throw him into this plot of ground, in keeping with the word of the LORD."
Death of Ahaziah of Judah. 27e Seeing what was happening, Ahaziah, king of Judah, fled toward Beth-haggan. Jehu pursued him, shouting, "Him too!" They struck him as he rode through the pass of Gur near Ibleam, but he continued his flight as far as Megiddo and died there. 28His servants brought him in a chariot to Jerusalem and they buried him in his grave with his ancestors in the City of David. 29In the eleventh year of Joram, son of Ahab, Ahaziah became king over Judah.
Death of Jezebel. 30Jehu came to Jezreel, and when Jezebel heard of it, she shadowed her eyes, adorned her hair, and looked down from her window. 31As Jehu came through the gate, she cried out, "Is all well, you Zimri, murderer of your master?"f 32Jehu looked up to the window and shouted, "Who is on my side? Who?" At this, two or three eunuchs looked down toward him. 33"Throw her down," he ordered. They threw her down, and some of her blood spurted against the wall and against the horses. Jehu trod over her body 34and, after eating and drinking, he said: "Attend to that accursed woman and bury her; for she was the daughter of a king." 35But when they went to bury her, they found nothing of her but the skull, the feet, and the hands. 36They returned to Jehu, and when they told him, he said, "This is the word the LORD spoke through his servant Elijah the Tishbite: In the confines of Jezreel the dogs shall devour the flesh of Jezebel.g 37The corpse of Jezebel shall be like dung in the field in the confines of Jezreel, so that no one can say: This was Jezebel."
* [9:1–13] Elisha carries out the commission the Lord gave Elijah in 1 Kgs 19:16. See note on 2 Kgs 3:1–9:13.
* [9:7–10] The author has Elisha's emissary expand considerably the speech Elisha told him to deliver by adding the same type of prophetic indictments and sanctions as were invoked on previous occasions against the dynasties of Jeroboam (1 Kgs 14:10–11), of Baasha (1 Kgs 16:3–4), and of Ahab himself (1 Kgs 21:21–24).
* [9:14–11:20] Death pervades this section. The dynasty founded by Omri (1 Kgs 16:23) drowns in a bloodbath, taking numberless others along with it. The scenes are in three parallel sets of three: death comes (1) to Joram of Israel, Ahab's son; to Ahaziah of Judah, his son-in-law; and to Jezebel, the Baalist queen mother of Israel; (2) then to seventy descendants of Ahab; to forty-two relatives of Ahaziah of Judah; and to numerous Baal worshipers; (3) finally to Jehu of Israel; to the blood royal of Judah; and to Athaliah, the Baalist queen mother of Judah and last of the Omrids.
* [9:22] Harlotry and sorcery: both terms are metaphors referring to Jezebel's worship of the foreign god Baal.
a. [9:1–13] 1 Kgs 19:16.
b. [9:8–10] 1 Kgs 14:10–11; 16:3–4; 21:21–24.
c. [9:14–15] 2 Kgs 8:28–29.
d. [9:21–26] 1 Kgs 21:1–24.
e. [9:27–28] 2 Chr 22:7–9.
f. [9:31] 1 Kgs 16:8–13.
g. [9:36] 1 Kgs 21:23.
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What Features Does the New iPhone 5 Have? LTE, Larger Screen, iOS 6 and More
At a press conference this morning in San Francisco, Apple introduced the iPhone 5.
The latest version of the best-selling smartphone has been highly anticipated ever since the somewhat disappointing release of the previous iteration, the iPhone 4s.
The iPhone 5 will be the thinnest smartphone on the market. Made entirely of glass and aluminum, the phone was also designed by Apple to fit right into your hand, according to Apple CEO Tim Cook, who led the product demonstration.
Other features include:
- a new, larger 4-inch display
- all software has been updated
- screen is bigger—taller but not wider (it now has five rows of apps per page)
- all apps updated to fit the screen; they'll be centered until resized by the developer
- faster wireless
- the touch has been integrated with display with ... drumroll, please ... LTE
- better speakers and microphones
- 1080p HD video
- the 8-megapixel camera now has a panorama feature built in
- wide-band audio makes voices sound much more natural
- a new A6 chip
- longer battery life
- a new connector and dock
- a new, native maps app; i.e., no more Google Maps
- new mail features include VIPs
- passbook, which allows you to put passes, tickets and coupons on one app, with push notifications—basically, it's a digital wallet
- photo streaming updates to share photos directly with friends
- Siri updates: sports scores, movie recommendations, direct posting to Facebook, coordination with Open Table, less delay
- comes in white (an aluminum finish called silver) or black (aluminum finish called slate)
The iPhone 5 will be available for pre-order from Apple this Friday, September 14, and ships on September 21. Pricing is $199 for 16 GB, $299 for 32 GB, and $399 for 64 GB (all on contract).


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Ermine White - LOW VOC Urethane Basecoat with Premium Clearcoat Auto Paint (Complete Slow Gallon Paint Kit) Professional High Gloss Automotive Coating
Ermine White - LOW VOC Urethane Basecoat with Premium Clearcoat Auto Paint (Complete Slow Gallon Paint Kit) Professional High Gloss Automotive Coating
Since 1974
- Complete 1 Gallon Restoration Shop - Low 3.5 VOC Urethane Basecoat with Premium Clearcoat Auto Paint Kit with Slow Drying Reducer (Used during hot weather conditions when the temperatures are 85Á F and above). The kit provides 1-1/2 gallons (6 Quarts) of sprayable basecoat color material and 1-1/4 gallons (5 Quarts) of Premium Clearcoat.
- UBLV Paint Kit includes 1 Gallon of UBLV Low VOC Urethane Basecoat Paint Color, 1 Gallon of XR85 Exempt Slow Urethane Reducer, 1 Gallon of HS3010 Premium High Solids Ultra Clear, 1 Quart of HS3030 Premium High Solids Hardener, 5 Pack of 190 Micron Nylon Automotive Strainers and a 5 Pack of Wood Paint Mixing Sticks.
- The Restoration Shop (UBLV) Low VOC Urethane Basecoat and Premium Clearcoat System is a State-of-the-Art High-Performance Professional Easy-To-Use Paint Coating System that is Designed to Reproduce the Hi-Tech O.E.M. Automotive Finishes Found on Today's Vehicles.
- UBLV is an easy to spray fast-drying basecoat/clearcoat system that provides a long-lasting and very high gloss topcoat finish result. UBLV is an extremely durable, chemical and solvent resistant coating that also resists chipping, cracking, and UV ray fading.
- Restoration Shop's (UBLV) is a Low 3.5 VOC compliant basecoat/clearcoat paint system that may be used in National Rule or Low 3.5 VOC limit States when using it with the proper XR series reducers.
- Note: Monitors vary - onscreen colors are for general color reference only.


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Part Box
Co-ordSport Ltd
Unit 1, Cleton Business Park
Cleton Street, Tipton
West Midlands, DY4 7TR, UK
0121 557 2707
0121 557 2707
Inc VAT£113.26
Exc VAT£94.38
Founded in 2004, DeatschWerks, LLC is a company dedicated to providing high-performance fuel system solutions. Located in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, DW operates out of its own 36,000 sq. ft. facility that houses all of the company's functions including design, end-manufacturing, quality assurance, sales, marketing, and administration. DeatschWerks' roots were established by offering high flow drop-in fitment fuel injectors. In 2009 DW expanded into fuel pumps with the DW300 the first in-tank fuel pump to outflow the standard 255 LPH pump.
Since then, DW has developed innovative fuel system components such as the in-line 250iL and 350iL pumps, modular surge tanks, conversion fuel rails, dual-stage fuel filters, and ethanol compatible fuel pressure regulators. Today, the DeatschWerks line-up of fuel system components includes over 500 SKU?s covering Sport Compact, Modern Muscle, and Euro applications.
Select up to 5 vehicles below.


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Notice: This Wiki is now read only and edits are no longer possible. Please see: https://gitlab.eclipse.org/eclipsefdn/helpdesk/-/wikis/Wiki-shutdown-plan for the plan.
EclipseLink Incubator
The Incubator component of EclipseLink allows new functionality to be developed in isolation of the shipped components. The purpose is to allow consumers to optionally try out the incubation functionality and provide feedback so that it can evolve to meet the needs of the community.
What should incubate? In deciding when a new incubation sub-component should be created the committers should consider the opportunity incubation allows to gather feedback and evolve the solution without effecting the existing product or imposing any backwards compatibility requirements.
Current Incubation Sub-Components
Name | Committer(s) | Wiki | SVN Location |
bug 253682 Platform | tware | EclipseLink/Development/Incubator/Platform | /svnroot/rt/org.eclipse.persistence/incubator/extensions/trunk |
bug 280949 Partitioning | dclarke | EclipseLink/Development/Incubator/Partitioning | proposed |
bug 304370 EclipseLink-Gemini JPA | mkeith | EclipseLink/Development/Incubator/GeminiJPA | proposed |
Incubation Process Guidelines
The development of incubation sub-components is intended to allow rapid innovation of ideas independent of the main development while still conforming to the Eclipse development and IP rules.
Creating a new Incubator Feature
In order to create a new incubation feature the following steps should be followed:
- Open a bug or enhancement request for the proposed incubation feature and assign it to the Incubator component
- Send an email to the email@example.com mailing list proposing the bug for development in the EclipseLink Incubator
- After approval at the weekly meeting assign it to yourself in status Assigned
The creation and development of the sub-component should include the following:
- Create a WIKI for the work under: wiki.eclipse.org/Development/...
- Explain the feature being developed
- Functional requirements and design
- How to download use and provide feedback
- What version does it work with and which version the work is being developed in
- Any build/test/package instructions
- Any usage documentations
- Any other useful information to facilitate use and feedback
- Create a folder in the incubation component for the work /trunk/incubation/...
- Folder should contain a project and ANT build/package scripts (Note: These will only be executed manually)
- During development ensure all commits clearly indicate the incubator feature and bug #
- EXAMPLE: Incubation-Dynamic-200045: Added support for JPA eclipselink-orm.xml metadata processing
Promoting an Incubation Sub-Component
After the incubation work has reached maturity and the owning committer(s) wish to promote it into the product. This should be done under standard project development with other committers reviewing the requirements, design, implementation, and tests prior to committing.
Upon completion of moving an incubation sub-component into the main project components the incubation folders should be deleted in an SVN transaction and the wiki pages involved should be updated to reflect the completed state of the work.
Common Incubation Header
* Copyright (c) 1998, 2008 Oracle. All rights reserved.
* This program and the accompanying materials are made available under the
* terms of the Eclipse Public License v1.0 and Eclipse Distribution License v. 1.0
* which accompanies this distribution.
* The Eclipse Public License is available at http://www.eclipse.org/legal/epl-v10.html
* and the Eclipse Distribution License is available at
* http://www.eclipse.org/org/documents/edl-v10.php.
* Contributors:
* dclarke - Dynamic Persistence INCUBATION - Enhancement 200045
* http://wiki.eclipse.org/EclipseLink/Development/JPA/Dynamic
* This code is being developed under INCUBATION and is not currently included
* in the automated EclipseLink build. The API in this code may change, or
* may never be included in the product. Please provide feedback through mailing
* lists or the bug database.
SVN Structure
Incubation work will developed in SVN in a peer folder to the main component's trunk folder.
Each incubation effort will create a sub-folder in here with its own structure for branching and maintaining the IDE projects used.
- /incubator
- /dynamic
- /trunk
- /org.eclipse.persistence.core.dynamic - Project containing the extensions to core
- /org.eclipse.persistence.jpa.dynamic - Project containing the extensions to JPA
- /eclispelink.core.test.dynamic - Project containing the extensions to core's testing
- /eclispelink.jpa.test.dynamic - Project containing the extensions to JPA's testing
- /trunk
- /dynamic


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2350 E Legrande Avenue, Indianapolis, IN 46203
725 Sq.Ft. LIVING AREA
6,970 Sq.Ft. lot
Cara holds esteemed certifications as a negotiation expert and a Luxury Home Marketing Specialist, showcasing her mastery in the art of deal-making and her profound understanding of the high-end property market. With a strategic approach, she harnesses the power of cutting-edge digital technology, employing an array of sophisticated tactics in real estate sales and marketing. This enables her to effectively showcase properties, engage potential buyers, and secure optimal outcomes in the dynamic real estate landscape.


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Whooping cough is getting a foothold once again in the U.S., and it seems to be getting stronger. More than 20,000 cases have been reported so far this year, compared with only about 8,500 last year, and Washington State has already declared a whooping cough epidemic.
Now there's fresh evidence that the current vaccine against whooping cough may be less reliable than an older version. Scientists report this week that children in Australia were about four times more likely to catch whooping in 2011 when given only the vaccine, called DTap, instead of an older vaccine, known as DTwP.
The same trend is emerging with the same vaccine on the West Coast, Wired's Maryn McKenna explained on her blog this week. This could be contributing to the epidemic in the U.S., especially when vaccinations are spotty.
To pinpoint the source of Australia's whooping cough epidemic, doctors in Queensland examined the medical records for about 40,500 children who received the new DTap vaccine, the older version, or a combination of the two during the three-shot series.
The results were clear cut: The older vaccine was more effective at preventing whooping cough 10 to 12 years after vaccination. The findings are published in the current issue of the Journal of the American Medical Association.
Even though the study took place in Australia, it "absolutely corroborates very well with what we're seeing and learning in Washington state," says Maxine Hayes, a pediatrician at the University of Washington's School of Public Health, tells Shots. "There is waning protection from the DTap vaccine."
Whooping cough, also known as pertussis, is caused by the bacterium Bordetella pertussis. It hospitalizes about 50 percent of infants who get it and can lead to pneumonia in adults.
The first vaccine for whooping cough was introduced in the 1940s, and it cut infections from about 200,000 cases each year to only a few thousand cases annually in the 1970s.
But the vaccine wasn't perfect. Mild side effects were common, such as pain and swelling, and in rare cases, serious neurological problems.
So scientists developed safer vaccines, such as DTap, which is currently the main line of defense in the U.S.
The first children to receive DTap are now teenagers, and, they are catching whooping cough more often than they should, Hayes says.
Some 77 percent of children and adolescents who got whooping cough in Washington State last year were up to date on their required shots, she notes.
This is consistent with another study in California last year, which found new booster shots lost their potency after three years.
So what's next? Hayes says that the Centers of Disease Control and Prevention is going to examine more immunization records and figure out exactly how long the DTap vaccine works. Then they can decide if more frequent booster shots are required.
In the mean time, the vaccine is still the most powerful weapon there is for slowing down the whooping cough epidemic, Hayes says. It still provides better coverage than no vaccine. If you've been vaccinated and get sick, the disease is not as severe, doesn't last as long, and isn't as infectious.
Copyright 2022 NPR. To see more, visit https://www.npr.org.


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Oh Hey! Wax Seal Stamp
It is never too late to reconnect with an old friend. Send a letter or an old photo, or just say "hey"!
How to use our wax seal stamp: We've imprinted divots on the bottom of our round Wax + Seal stamps so you can easily orient the stamps any way you wish!
- The stamp head measures approximately 1" or 2.5cm in diameter.
- Price
- $32
Pickup available at Anemoia Mercantile
Usually ready in 24 hours
Shipping Information
Our on-line store is open 24/7 and we ship Tuesday through Friday, excluding some holidays. Orders received for products without shipping restrictions on its product page will ship within 48 hours on business days. Orders in high demand will have an estimated production time listed on its product page and will ship according to the date listed.
Shipping Timeframe
We do our best to ship all in-stock orders within 24-48 hours (with the exception of Sunday and Monday, as we are closed). That being said, we are a very small operation and sometimes fulfillment may be slightly delayed. If you need your order by a specific date, please be sure to choose the fastest available shipping speed, and add a note in the "Special Instructions" box at the bottom of your cart (or contact us directly).
Large items, such as E+E Wall Mounts, are often stocked at our warehouse and require a lot of extra time and attention to package safely. Please allow an extra 48 hours to get these items out to you.
Shipping Costs
Our goal is to provide you awesome products and fantastic service - not to profit from shipping charges. Our system automatically calculates shipping based solely on the weight of the item. In some cases, you may be overcharged for shipping. When this happens, we will either refund the shipping overage (in the event of a large discrepancy) or upgrade your shipping (in the event of a small discrepancy). In the event that you're undercharged for shipping, we will cover the difference at no additional cost to you.
Shipping Discounts
As with all discount codes from all stores, shipping discounts do have limitations and exceptions. For example, they typically do not cover large items or shipping rates over a certain dollar amount.
Shipping-Related Damages
We inspect every product when it comes in and when it ships out, and use excessive care in packaging all orders, in hopes of avoiding any potential issues on the customer's end. Please inspect your order upon reception and contact us immediately in the unlikely event that the item is defective, damaged or if you receive the wrong item, so that we can evaluate the issue and make it right.
For UPS Shipments - We handle the claim.
If damage occurs in transit, your cooperation will be required to facilitate a damage claim in order to issue a refund. To expedite the process, please send, along with your refund request, clear, well-lit photos of the following:
- all sides of the box, especially any damage to the box
- the label
- inner packaging
- the item and damage to the item
- in some cases, the carrier will request an onsite inspection, so please retain all packaging until the claims process has been completed
For USPS Shipments - You handle the claim.
USPS requires the physical item and original packaging, so the quickest way to file the claim is to take the item and all of the original packaging to the nearest post office and file the claim.
We do not accept back damaged merchandise, so complying with the above instructions is the only way to receive a refund for damaged products. Refunds/replacements for damaged products will be issued once the shipping claim has been completed.
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Customer Love
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Orange Park, FL
Beautiful store, you can find anything for anyone. Unique and very special gifts for men, women, and children… and the Owner and her staff are so sweet and helpful.
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Alexandria, VA
...When my shipment arrived, I was blown away by the quality of the products, the detail attended to in the packaging, and the thoughtful note and little extras that were included....
Ann S.
Orange Park, FL
Can't resist this shop. The most interesting and unique gifts that I have seen anywhere... you think of something and Anemoia has it... You have to go to see this place. Shopping has never been so much fun.
Kory C.
Orange Park, FL
This is THE local place to shop for gifts... Jess will answer an questions about the products and offer solutions for your shopping needs. I love shopping for my special friends and family members here!
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Orange Park, FL
I LOVE this shop! It has so many unique items, I could look all day... The staff was amazingly helpful and you just feel welcome. I already have many ideas for gifts to give AND receive for Christmas!
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Middleburg, FL
This is by far the coolest shop I've ever been in! So many cool things to buy and look at! I could've stayed in there for hours! Owner was super helpful and inviting. Will definitely shop here again!
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Orange Park, FL
Such an amazing store! You will be happy you went. Until you go, you have no idea the cool items she has. If your a person who has everything, this store will show you things you didn't know you needed. Highly recommended!!!!!
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Orange Park, FL
Love, love, love, LLOOVVEE this store!! It's one of those kinds of stores where you can spend hours browsing and still not see everything... Old school, new school, antique and unique.... SSOO much cool stuff to see and enjoy!!
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Great website, easy to find exactly what I was looking for. Love these headbands! And you shipped quickly!
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Ponte Vedra Beach, FL
Beautiful shop with so many unique and fun items. Especially for gifts and special events. I attend a calligraphy event during my visit. Great girls night!


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The way you travel describes a lot about your mannerisms, and one amongst them is of course your love for convenience and comfort. Air travel comes with wide range of benefits like time saving, comfort, safety and pleasure of imagining yourself as you are gliding through the thin air. However, amidst all that gliding, comfort and pleasure, there are intricacies attached to booking flight tickets. In case these somehow happen to be the last minute deals from El Al Airlines flights, the situation turns out startling and the fiasco can be called up anytime. Nothing comes as a guarantee for sure in flight bookings, but your preparedness and planning is always accountable.
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A fully refundable ticket is usually quite a bit more expensive than a nonrefundable ticket, which is why most people don't end up buying them if they're looking for flights on a budget. El Al Airlines flight cancellation policy vary drastically, and in the recent COVID Economy, flight cancellations have become a gruesome problem altogether.
You can avail this benefit after reading the fine print. Cancel for Any Reason (CFAR) is a non-compulsory benefit. But, there is supernumerary fee attached to it. CFAR is again the optional benefit and is available during the first 21 days of your first trip or maybe less, and for this to happen, it is always necessary that you must have our travel completely insured. You need to check with your El Al Airlines flight cancellation policy.
It is unfortunate that the basic economy ticket cannot be canceled or changed after 24 hours of time has elapsed. If 24 hours are over, you are not going to receive the complete price value of your El Al Airlines ticket, and this is going to be a completely despicable position.
Not every and not many flights flying out there offer you flyer miles. At times, you are not going to earn any rewards on frequent flyer miles. Make sure you check out with the El Al Airlines booking system and double check you have got precise date and time available on your flight. Maybe you have the lucky chance where you are offered the frequent flyer miles plus everything else.
There are instances where the aircraft does not have a El Al Airlines flight plan, but it is listed on the flight system out there. The potential traveler may still track it, without actually knowing the end destination of the flight. If you are perplexed, it is good idea that you confirm such flights with the respective airliner.
Look out at the authentic flight search engines, which offering the best deals and authentic prices on the airlines. You may come across the search engines that have excessively inflated the flights. In addition, check out El Al Airlines cheap flights on the website, and after comparing the flights against your destination, you get to know the best options.
Flights are usually updated on regular basis, but this might not happen all the time. There are times when your flight does not turn up at the gate, even when it shows that the flight is on time. It is always a good idea to check the El Al Airlines flight booking status and ensure that the airline has published correct flight status.
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Common Roof Leak locations and how to fix them safely
Fussing to try and find a leak as soon as it happens is something that could put you in the hospital. Meddling on a roof while it's raining or covered with ice and snow isn't the ideal way to find a leak. Trying to temporarily fix a leak could be highly dangerous. If you want to do... Read More »


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Dickson Insurance Inc.
(480) 804-0400(480) 804-0400
About Our Insurance Agents
We are an authorized, independent Mercury Insurance Agency offering low rates and dedicated service for car insurance in MESA, Arizona. We want to make sure you get every discount possible and can help walk you through any questions you may have on Arizona Insurance.
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Privacy & Terms
I'm a paragraph. Click here to add your own text and edit me. It's easy. Just click "Edit Text" or double click me to add your own content and make changes to the font.
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Book Your Journey With Our App
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BFS Clean Hoodie
- Free UK shipping on orders £75+
- Pay later with Klarna
- Secure online payment
Introducing the ultimate BFS Clean Hoodie! Crafted with precision and designed to perfection, this men's hoodie is a must-have for every wardrobe.
Made in Europe from 100% cotton, it guarantees exceptional quality and unbeatable comfort. With its anthracite hue and branded trims, this hoodie exudes style while ensuring durability that lasts. The lined hood with drawstring cords add an extra touch of versatility.
Featuring stretchy trims for the perfect fit and a convenient front pouch pocket, this BFS Clean Hoodie effortlessly combines fashion with functionality. It's time to elevate your casual attire game with confidence – grab yours now!
- Regular fit
- Anthracite
- Men's hoodie
- Lined hood
- Front pouch pocket
- Drawstring hood
- 100% Cotton
For reference, John wears size L. Other male model is 6'1 and wears size M.
Machine wash according to instructions on care label.
Returns information
Is it possible to return an item?
We want to make sure you are happy with your purchase. However, you may find it necessary to return items to us in the unlikely event that the goods are damaged, you received something in error or if you've simply changed your mind. Please return any items for a refund within 28 days of receipt of your order.
The returned item(s) must be in a re-saleable condition and include the original packaging and tags. We reserve the right to refuse your refund/exchange if the returned item(s):
- Show signs of unreasonable wear
- Are deemed to have been laundered
- Are not returned in their packaging and/or tags removed
In the event we refuse your return, we will contact you and send the item(s) to the original shipping address.
If your returned item was part of a promotional deal (e.g. 3 for 2), and the returned item is not the free item, you will be refunded the difference between the full price of the free item and the full price of the returned item.
How do I return an item?
Simply click the button below to access our Returns portal and enter the details on each page. Depending on the reason for your return, you will be sent a return shipping label once you have submitted your return request.
The cost of a return request for UK orders is £2.00, or £5.00 for international orders. This will be deducted from your refund. We will waive this fee if you opt for store credit.
We also offer Eco returns, where we suggest you might keep the item and give it to a friend or family member, and we will give you up to 20% of the value of the item in store credit towards your next purchase.
This returns policy does not affect your statutory rights.
Access our Returns Portal
No printer? No problem. CLICK HERE for access to our Royal Mail returns portal where you will receive a QR code instead.
Multiple items to return? CLICK HERE
Contact information
The best way to contact us is to use the green 'Help' tab at the bottom right-hand side of this website. By doing this, you open a ticket, which we're notified about straight away. If we can help you quickly, we will. If however, your query is more complicated, please feel free to call us on 0141 891 8504. If you are calling from outside the UK, the international version of the number is 0044 141 891 8504.
We will be happy to chat Monday to Friday: 9:30am to 4:30pm [GMT]
Or email us using firstname.lastname@example.com
If you would prefer to write to us, or have something you would like to return, please use the following address:
V Twin Brands Ltd
31 Gordon Avenue
Hillington Park
United Kingdom (GB)
You can also follow us on Facebook , Twitter and various other social networks, check out the icons at the bottom of this page.


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The Northscaping NetPS Plant Search Engine has determined that the NetPS Account you have tried to access is inactive at this time. You may wish to contact the nursery or garden center to inquire about the status of their plant finder tool. Or, there may be a technical problem with the account.
If the problem persists, please click Contact the NetPS Webmaster.
Return to the previous page and try your request again.
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The Web Site
Images and Copyright
New York, Metropolitan Museum of Art
Images on the Gothic Ivories web site come from two main sources:
Images from the Conway Library collection The Conway Library holds a collection of nearly 2,000 images of Gothic ivory objects. These images come from a wide variety of sources, and were assembled for research and study purposes and put at the disposal of the academic staff and students. In order to serve a wider community, these images (mostly black and white and of uneven quality) have been scanned and are now available online as part the Gothic Ivories Project.
Images provided by repository institutions and private collectors The Project has been actively collaborating with repository institutions, photographic institutions, and, to a lesser extent, with private collectors, in order to offer a comprehensive and satisfactory coverage of their collections. The aim is to include at least one image per object, but wherever possible, new photography campaigns have been launched. Therefore, many of the photographs you will see on this web site provide hitherto unpublished views and angles, thus yielding precious information about the objects and their function.
All photographs are copyright protected. Any reproduction or representation is strictly limited to private use. Any other use requires the prior authorisation of the copyright holder.
To purchase an image of an object The Gothic Ivories web site is not a commercial web site: one cannot therefore purchase images of the objects directly from us. However, should you wish to purchase an image of an object, you can click on the link provided under To purchase an image in the entry for that particular object. This will direct you to the photographic services of the repository institution where you can then place an order.
Copyright Disclaimer The Gothic Ivories Project team at the Courtauld Institute of Art has done its utmost to ensure that we have not infringed anyone's copyright by publishing images on this web site. We fully support the understanding enshrined in copyright law that the creators of imaginative works have a right to be identified as such and to benefit from all commercial exploitation of their works; and we further understand that those rights are extended for a period to their families and estates. However, with ultimately several thousands of images on display, we cannot absolutely guarantee that we have not unwittingly and despite our best endeavours infringed someone's copyright. In the event that such an infringement is brought to our notice, we will:
Copyright Statement No image published on the Gothic Ivories web site may be reproduced in any form or by any means, whether print or digital, without the prior written consent of the copyright owners.
Images acquired via the Gothic Ivories web site are for non-commercial private or educational use only. Republication or redistribution of images, including by framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited. Any infringement risks prosecution to the full extent of the law.
Last updated: 22 June 2015.
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