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Monday, February 9, 2009
Bag Lady Serves Dinner
Here's what Sandy looked like all loaded up. The trunk was full holding the milk jugs (big black plastic bag and two paper grocery bags) and visual aids (peach plastic bag).
The front passenger seat held the container of the moistened soil mix for the pots, while the floor held a bucket of dry soil mix (for topping the sown seeds), plus some extra soil mix just in case. (As an instructor, you learn to be prepared for contingencies!)
In the back seat you can see my wheeled three-drawer plastic cart which held supplies, another bucket of soil mix...
... and a huge bucket containing the pre-moistened peat pots.
I really wanted to take photos while people were sowing, but my attention ended up being needed to assist here and reassure there, demonstrate techniques, answer questions, engage in friendly banter, and "approve" the duct tape seals around the jugs.
People seemed excited about the idea of winter sowing in general and about their seeds in specific, so that was very gratifying. And on the way home it was so WARM (48F y'all!), I drove with the windows down!!!
And for those of you interested in my own winter-sown flats, I added two more the previous weekend during balmy temps of 42F! I only wore cotton pajamas and a fleece robe outside and I felt overly warm! The snow has melted off the earlier trays, but is still on the ground in the background.
Now, on to VP's meme. As usual, timing is not my strong suit. I believe my dinner should have taken place on February 7, but no matter. My table is set for February 9. And fear not. This slight delay just means reduced traffic congestion and slightly warmer temperatures.
And, I must stress, this shan't be a dinner as I'm not that great a cook. It will be more of an afternoon tea or Kaffee und Kuchen, similar to what I hosted in early December. In case anyone is a bit peckish for non-sweet treats, I'll also make hummus and triangle flatbread chips. (If those were the only food of mine you'd ever tasted, you would swear I were Martha Stewart!)
I would also use retro cool dishes, if I had a complete set, something along the lines of these (which I photographed in an antiques mall)!
Now, guests. Paul James is first and foremost. Not only does he know a lot about gardening, so it would be fun to have a good natter about plants, but he's also funny, practical, and irreverent, and he loves talking about food. (Hey! I said I don't like cooking, not that I don't like food!) I've sung his praises in an earlier post, so I won't babble on again.
Next, Gertrude Jekyll (1843-1932), a pioneer in garden design, and a woman who earned her own living at a time when that was unusual. She was also a writer, painter, and plant aficionado. I just know she would have a blog, if she were alive today. I'd like to find out more about how she grew up, and what compelled her in her work. And, I must pose an admittedly pointed question: what was her beef with the color fuchsia? You see, one of my favorite heirloom annuals, love lies bleeding (Amaranthus caudatus), went out of style in the early 1900s after Jekyll declared her distaste for fuchsia flowers and banned them from her own gardens. She was such a trend-setter, people followed her lead in their own gardens, and love lies bleeding fell out of fashion.
And finally, Georgia O'Keeffe (1887–1986), a painter and lover of the natural world who captured the beauty of the landscape on canvas. Also an avid traveler and independent thinker, with whom I'm proud to share a birthday. I was unfamiliar with most of her work beyond the red poppies until I surreptitiously attended an exhibit at the Milwaukee Art Museum while visiting friends some 10 years ago. I loved her landscapes, especially the abstract. The "From the Lake" series is my favorite, though the scenes of Lake George also speak to me, as do the series of leaves and of cottonwoods. I'd love to talk to her about her travels, especially in the southwest, but also of her time in NYC and Chicago, and most of all, I want to talk to her about her own life journey. She is clearly someone who followed her own muse, and I admire her for it.
So cheers and guten Appetit!
24 comments:
And I would come up from Atlanta if you could resurrect Gertrude! On second thought, why don't you and Gert come here? It's been in the high 60's today and the same forecasted for tomorrow! We definitely don't have Florida or California weather, but it is the perfect weather to light the firepit and eat dinner outside! Would I score any point with Jekyll that I'm not a big fuschia fan, either?
ReplyDeleteWhen I saw your title, Monica, I thought we might be eating out of garbage cans; glad that's not the case, LOL. Coffee and kuchen sounds wonderful to me!
I would love to come to this party, if for no other reason than to meet Paul James! I remember the earlier post you did about meeting him; I'm sure he would make this a lively party. I'm not familiar with Gertrude Jekyll, though I've seen her name on other guest lists, but I'd like to know, too, what's wrong with fuschia!- AnonymousFebruary 9, 2009 at 11:42 PM
Nom, Kaffee and Kuchen!! Haven't had that in some time - I sure do miss my friend Oleg who knows how to set out a spread like you do.
ReplyDelete - AnonymousFebruary 10, 2009 at 1:03 AM
This is a wonderful post and I would love to come to dinner. I couldn't help thinking that the only dirt that is seen in my car is from my shoes..Well..last summer, I tried a few things and at least got some container plants going. I never should have waited till the age of 50 to take an interest in gardening. I could have used a more youthful body to do the work...Michelle
ReplyDelete Monica, wish Rose and I could have taken that class! But I assure you we will pick your brain at SF. I am so impressed with how organized you are.
I can really see your trays now that the snow has melted. Before it was a little difficult and it did look like a grill. :} Can't wait to see those sprouts coming up.Duh! I forgot to say anything about your party. I have always like Paul James and remember your great post about him. I think I have seen a program about Gertrude and I know I have seen her mention in gardening books. She would be interesting to talk to. I have always like Okeefe's work. So simple, yet capturing the beauty of nature. Great choices!
ReplyDelete- AnonymousFebruary 10, 2009 at 9:40 AM
I would love to meet Paul James so count me in for the dinner. Sounds like it will be a fun night and lots of laughs. ;)
ReplyDelete I've come to you from Weaver of Grass, then through another! I, too, am an avid gardener. I have gardened since I was a child. I have gardened the garden of places I rented! It was wonderful when passers by remarked on a colourful show.
Now we are in Ireland and have 5 acres. Difficult to get under control but we're getting there. My husband Jim and I visited Gertrude Jekyll's garden with the horticultural society. It was wonderful and I'd definitely agree to having her as a guest.
Lovely blog.
GinaAnyone who's prepared to feed me Kaffee und Kuchen is a friend for life ....when can I come?!
I have loved Georgia O'Keefe's work for a long time and would adore to meet Gertrude ....it wouldn't take me THAT long to get to you from the UK! - but bear in mind that I'd definately blag a lesson on winter sowing whilst I was with you!Dear Monica.....I am just starting to sow my seeds in the greenhouse. I have a heater in there so it gives them a good start.....
I love the photos of your car full of all the necessary....I am glad I am not the only one who abuses their car....
Jekyll is also one of my longtime favourites....lovely dinner party....I think you will have a lot of people popping over.....Wahhhhh I can't sow any seeds yet and seeing your post has made me want to do so, so much!
So glad you invited Georgia O'Keefe - I'm having problems with my flower painting for my garden course and I'm sure she'd be handy for a few tips. I seem to remember a lot of fuchsia in some of her paintings though - do you think she'd hide that fact from Gertrude Jekyll or would they have a 'discussion' about it? ;)
I don't know your other guest, but will have a bit of a google now you've introduced us.
A great post Monica - I'm still chuckling over your preliminaries even though I can remember an equally stuffed car from when I used to do science days at schools!
Thanks for taking part - now where's that kaffee und kuchen...You're living the life of Riley! ;-) And you must have been a girl scout at one time or other re the prepared thingy. ;-)
Gertrude would be on my list too, I recently bought a book about her.
Kaffee und Kuchen will do me fine and so will the hummus!
BTW K&M museum is truly one of the very best, so glad you had the opportunity to visit it!Tina,
Yes, Paul James rules! unfortunately, those aren't my dishes (though I have some similar casserole bowls), they were photographed in an antiques mall. If you have any questions about WS, let me know.
I have these sneaky suspicions that Gertrude might in fact be a little, um, serious for the likes of me, but I'm taking my chances. Google love lies bleeding and get back to me about not liking fuchsia! :)
I try to make my headings funny or intriguing, so I'll take it I succeeded! ;-) And I have been known to curbside shop (my perfectly fine Weber grill was procured in this manner), but I have yet to dumpster dive!
Germans do know how to relax, which is really handy, frankly!
It doesn't matter when you start gardening (I was in my 20s) old age and extra blubber tend to catch up with you. Sometimes it's hard for me to get up! My car, Sandy, has always been a "working gal" is has never been truly clean since I got her.
Because I don't have any assistants, i *have* to be organized, or most of the stuff in my life wouldn't get done! I do like O'Keeffe's seemingly simple style, which conveys complex ideas and emotions.
I'm definitely going to need to pull out both table extensions and rustle up some extra chairs as Paul sure is popular!
No need to feel stupid--I really didn't explain winter seed sowing in detail because people would get tired of it as I mention it a lot. For details, look here and here.
Thanks for stopping by. I hear Ireland is wonderful! Also, the Lake George in question is in New York state.
Ah, "blag"--a new Britishism, hooray! (It's the same as natter, right?) Feel free to stop by any time.
I've never had a greenhouse, so I envy you. I can see I'm going to have to find a lot more seating for this little party!
You can SO sow seeds already if you winter sow! :) Apparently Gertrude was also a painter, but I suspect Georgia was a little more adventuresome.
I do throw chocolate (Dove squares) when people answer my "quick quiz" questions correctly. I like to make sure people stay awake!
Better than a Girl Scout (I did go to a few meetings as a child but I never officially became one), I'm GERMAN. Ve like to be organized, ja, mit everysing in its place und ve like to be ready fur anysing!
~MonicaYou have obviously packed that car for such journeys before Monica :) It must take
some strategic planning !
Kaffee und Kuchen -now that sounds seriously delicious. I am not at all familiar with your guests with the exception of Gertrude Jekyll, but will have to find out more about the other two who sound most intriguing. I do like that painting - such vivid colours.
I too think that Gertrude would have been a blogger, despite her very poor eyesight. She was a most determined woman !- AnonymousFebruary 12, 2009 at 7:35 PM
Hi Monica, well I am late to your late party, it seems so right! I don't know which sounds like more fun, the winter sowing class or the dinner, oops, lunchey thingey. Like Tina, Paul is a fave of mine too, from my home town of Tulsa, OK even. We would speak the same language.
Frances Hi Anna,
If you haven't found a link to Paul James (it's a common name and a TON of Google hits show up), here are links to his bio and TV show. I'm sure you'll be able to find info on Georgia O'Keeffe as long as you remember both Fs in her last name! :)
Arriving late for a late dinner party seems quite appropriate. I've set an extra place setting for you, but you're going to have to fight Paul for the last piece of Stollen!
I've been in Holland much more recently than I've been in Germany. I loved your country. As I'm from northern Germany, Holland looked very similar. :)Hi Monica, I didn't get invited to any dinners but I'd be happy to be a fly on the wall:;0
I probably don't have a lot of 'info' to share, but I could serve dessert or do some house-cleaning just so I could get a glimpse of Paul James...and, learn anything possible from you, and your distinguised guests.!
Yesterday I read a post that was up, then I guess you took it down. It was about you leaving your job and venturing out with all of your other projects. I hope everything will work out just the way you'd like it to! (Sorry to leave this message, since you deleted the post, but I really thought the post was superb!)


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Prince Louis Hilariously Terrorizes Mom Kate Middleton During Queen's Platinum Jubilee: WATCH
Prince Louis gave birth to several memes while helping his great-grandmother, Queen Elizabeth, celebrate her Platinum Jubilee over the weekend.
The 4-year-old prince — Kate Middleton and Prince William's youngest child — became the king of viral content thanks to his rambunctious behavior during the festivities, which honored the queen's historic 70-year reign.
He first captivated a global audience with his antics during the Trooping the Colour, a parade that took place on the first day of the Jubilee. Photos and videos of the royal family sparked a wild response online as Louis was seen pulling several funny faces.
"Prince Louis is all of us," one Twitter user wrote alongside a photo of him covering his ears and dramatically shouting. Check out the pic below:
Trooping the Colour took place on Thursday (June 2). Thankfully, it was not the end of the young prince's viral reign.
CNN noted that Louis stole the show again during a pageant that took place Sunday (June 5). In a video captured from the event, the young prince was seen terrorizing his mother who tried to calm him down.
Louis' tiny tantrum started when he sat back in his chair with an expression on his face that made it very clear he was over it. Kate tried to ease his temper; however, Louis responded by putting his hand over her mouth.
He then stuck his tongue out at her and pulled several funny faces while Kate calmly continued to mother him.
"Why am I CRYING," one Twitter user wrote alongside footage of the viral moment. A second video shared by the same account showed that Louis continued his antics with a young girl who sat behind him. According to TMZ, the young girl was his relative, Mia Tindall.
Check out both clips below:
The videos took off on social media where they were met with a mixed reaction.
One Twitter user compared Louis to Joffrey Baratheon from Game of Thrones. "No one ever told him no, no one ever taught him respect or boundaries," they wrote.
However, others extended him grace and pointed out that Louis spent the weekend in a stressful situation that he had never experienced before.
All things considered, his response is pretty on par for your average 4 year old, and Kate's graceful mothering makes it clear that Louis is in very good hands.
Check out a photo that Kate and William shared earlier this year to mark their son's fourth birthday below:

subset: commoncrawl


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What is the FAFSA and why do I have to fill it out every year?
The FAFSA is the Free Application for Federal Student Aid. It is required by the Federal Government to determine what types of aid each student is eligible for. We will not be able to award any need-based institutional or government aid, nor government loans without the FAFSA. It has to be completed every year. You can begin filing the FAFSA October 1 of each year. As your taxes are required to complete the FAFSA, you can use the previous year's taxes as an estimate. However, you will need to update your FAFSA once your taxes have been completed which may adjust your aid. Apply online at https://studentaid.gov/.
My parent(s) doesn't want to fill out the FAFSA. Can I still get aid?
If you are under the age of 24, single, and/or childless, you will need your parent's information on the FAFSA to receive aid. We cannot simply treat you as an independent student because your parent does not want to help.
What is my Expected Family Contribution (EFC) and why is it so high?
Your EFC is the amount of money that the government expects you to be able to spend out-of-pocket for college. The EFC amount was determined by the government based on the information on your FAFSA.
Do I need to send the school a copy of my FAFSA?
No. Once the government has finished processing your FAFSA they will send a copy to all schools listed on your FAFSA. Once we have received the FAFSA into our system, you will receive a system generated email letting you know that we have it. If you did not list our school code, you can go back into your FAFSA account and add our code (003767) or contact us and we can add our code to your FAFSA (we will need to know your DRN in order to add our code – your DRN is listed on the SAR that the government emailed to you).
Where do I apply for loans?
The Sub/Unsub loans listed on the student's award letter are already guaranteed to the student as a result of the FAFSA. However, the student will need to complete Entrance Counseling and a Master Promissory Note online at before we can receive the money. If you would like to apply for a DPLUS Loan, you can do that online at . The DPLUS Loan is borrowed in the parent's name and requires a Master Promissory Note. (See page 6 of the Financial Aid Catalog) If you would like the student to be the borrower, you can apply for an Alternative Loan online at www.elmselect.com. The student will need a credit-worthy co-signer.
What if I get denied for the Parent DPLUS Loan?
If a parent is denied, the student will be eligible to borrow an additional unsubsidized loan in his/her name. The additional loan will be $4,000.00 if the student has earned less than 54 credit hours, and $5,000.00 if the student has earned 54 or more credit hours. If the parent wishes, he/she can instead get an endorser for the loan, similar to a co-signer, and the student will not be eligible for the additional unsubsidized loan. If the student still needs to find a loan, he/she can apply for an alternative loan at elmselect.com but will need a credit-worthy co-signer. (See page 10 of the Financial Aid Catalog)
What is the difference between the Sub and Unsub loans?
The Sub loan is subsidized by the government. It is a need-based loan with a 6.8% fixed interest rate; the government will pay the interest while the student is in school. The Unsub loan has a 6.8% fixed interest rate and the government does not pay the interest while the student is in school. Repayment on both loans begins six (6) months after the student graduates or drops below a part-time enrollment status. You can make payments ahead of time without penalty. If the student is a first-time borrower with the government, he/she will need to complete Entrance Counseling and sign a Master Promissory Note at .
What if I cannot afford my loan payment?
Repayment begins on your Subsidized and/or Unsubsidized Loans six (6) months after graduation or if you are enrolled in an accredited institution less than half-time. During the six (6) months, also known as the grace period, you will receive notices from your loan servicer concerning repayment of your loans. You will automatically be enrolled to participate in the Standard Repayment Plan, but you may be eligible to participate in other payment plan options. The plans that are currently available can be found at or contact your loan servicer. To find who your loan servicer is, please visit .
My parent(s) lost his/her job, can you give me more aid?
If you are facing some sort of extenuating circumstance, you may be eligible for additional aid. Please contact the Financial Aid office at 757.455.3345 or email@example.com for further information.¬ÝHowever, depending on the original EFC and individual situation, results will vary.
Will my scholarship increase if my grades improve?
No. The scholarship that you are awarded as an admitted applicant will not increase.
What is the Scholarship of the Week?
Every week we email the student body the Scholarship of the Week. This scholarship will be awarded from an outside source and will be available to all different types of students (depending on grade level, GPA, race, religion, area of study, etc.). You can also view them on our website, under types of financial aid. The requirements and applications for each scholarship will differ, but this is a good starting point to find additional aid.
What is work-study?
Work-study¬Ýis a federal program that allows students to work on campus. Students are paid minimum wage ($7.25 per hour) and can earn up to $1,250 per semester, working an average of 10-12 hours per week. Students do not have to participate in work-study, but can apply for jobs beginning the first Monday in August. If selected for a position, the student will receive a regular paycheck, biweekly. The student can spend the money him/herself, or return the money to the business office to apply toward the next semester's expenses.


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Although a million dollars may seem like a daunting figure, especially if you haven't been diligent about saving, there's good news: You don't have to make $1 million to save $1 million.
Many individuals who are saving for retirement aim to have at least $1 million in their retirement accounts when they exit the workforce. But retirement savings aren't a one-size-fits-all matter. Instead, the amount you'll need depends on a variety of factors, including your lifestyle, specific financial obligations, future plans and health needs.
According to data from Fidelity, the number of 401(k) plans with a balance of $1 million or more hit 406,000 in the first quarter of 2022, marking an 11% increase from the year prior. While the circumstances of these 401(k) participants may have varied on the margins, all were average workers who followed a handful of basic principles that enabled them to help successfully prepare for retirement. Below, we explore five of these principles, including how you can apply them to your financial plan.
Start early
A powerful tool when it comes to saving for retirement, compound interest refers to the interest you gain on a loan or deposit. And the best way to take advantage of compounding is by saving and investing early on. In fact, a recent study showed that the average 401(k) millionaire started saving early and remained invested for at least 30 years.
As you may have read in some of our other pieces, compounding in positive markets – even at a modest rate of return – can allow you to increase an initial investment over a period of time.
Maximize your contributions
In 2023, employees can contribute a maximum of $22,500 to their 401(k) accounts, not counting any potential employer match. Depending on your income, maxing out your contributions may be more challenging earlier in your career. However, studies have found that the average 401(k) millionaire contributed a minimum of 10% to 15% of their income year after year.
Make the most of your employer's match
Many employers offer to match their employees' 401(k) contributions up to a certain percent, and failing to meet this match is like leaving "free money" on the table. Even if you're not in a position to max out your 401(k) contributions, you should consider contributing the minimum amount necessary to earn your employer's match.
Not convinced? According to one study, 28% of contributions in the average account of 401(k) millionaires came from their employers. Each year, employer contributions increased the average 401(k) millionaire's savings by almost $4,600.
Choose the right asset allocation
A 2000 study by economists Roger Ibbotson and Paul Kaplan found that asset allocation accounted for more than 90% of the variation in a portfolio's return over time. If you're a long-term investor, you know that asset allocation has been one of the most important determinants of your investment earnings over time.
Investing in growth-oriented investments can help significantly boost your retirement savings through the years. While this strategy may not be appropriate for everyone, research has shown that the average 401(k) millionaire invested roughly 75% of their portfolio in growth-oriented investments such as equity mutual funds.
Avoid cashing out early
As most 401(k) millionaires know, staying the course and maximizing your earnings are crucial in helping meet your long-term retirement goals. You should resist the urge to cash out early even if you change jobs. Instead, consider rolling your current 401(k) balance into your new employer's 401(k) plan or another option. Early withdrawals come with tax consequences and other penalties. It's also best to avoid abandoning your investment strategy in turbulent market conditions. Many investors who cashed out in a market downturn missed part or all of the subsequent recovery.
- Assess your progress. If you haven't checked your 401(k) balance in a while, now is a good time to do so. Understanding where you are can help you determine a sound strategy to attempt to reach $1 million in savings by retirement.
- Revisit your investment strategy. Is your asset allocation consistent with your retirement savings goals? Your invest¬ment mix should reflect your growth expectations and risk tolerance, as well as your time horizon until retirement.
- Make necessary adjustments. Depending on how far you are from your retirement goals, you may need to increase your monthly contribution rate or adjust your investment mix. Working together, you and your financial advisor can navigate these decisions and help you work toward the retirement you envision.
Sources: cnbc.com; fidelity.com; Ibbotson, Roger G. and Kaplan, Paul D., Does Asset Allocation Policy Explain 40, 90, 100 Percent Of Performance? Financial Analysts Journal, Jan/Feb 2000, Vol. 56, No. 1. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=279096
Investing involves risk, and investors may incur a profit or a loss. Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Withdrawals from tax-deferred accounts may be subject to income taxes, and prior to age 59 1/2 a 10% federal penalty tax may apply. Diversification and asset allocation do not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Holding investments for the long term does not ensure a profitable outcome. The foregoing is not a recommendation to buy or sell any individual security or any combination of securities.


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Despite his family's baffling generations-old ban on music, Miguel dreams of becoming an accomplished musician like his idol, Ernesto de la Cruz. Desperate to prove his talent, Miguel finds himself in the stunning and colorful Land of the Dead following a mysterious chain of events. Along the way, he meets charming trickster Hector, and together, they set off on an extraordinary journey to unlock the real story behind Miguel's family history.
Views: 1073
Genre: Adventure, Animation, Comedy, Family, Fantasy
Director: Adrian Molina(co-director), Lee Unkrich
Actors: Alanna Ubach, Alfonso Aráu, Ana Ofelia Murguía, Anthony Gonzalez, Antonio Sol, Benjamin Bratt, Dyana Ortelli, Edward James Olmos, Gael García Bernal, Herbert Siguenza, Renée Victor, Selene Luna
Country: USA


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Buena Park California
- Major Airports:
- Los Angeles (LAX)
- John Wayne/Santa Ana (SNA)
- Long Beach (LGB)
- States:
- California
A city made for fun in the heart of Southern California
Fun for the Whole Family
No visit to Buena Park would be complete without a day – or two, or three – at Knott's Berry Farm, a 65-hectare theme park set on a one-time berry farm. Make no mistake: Knott's is designed with the entire family in mind, with rides that run the gamut from twisting, turning, heart-pounding roller coasters to bumper cars, carousels and log flumes. Camp Snoopy, a Peanuts Gang-themed area for children houses kid-friendly attractions, live shows and meet-and-greets with Snoopy. In the summer, drop into Knott's Soak City water park with dozens of thrilling slides, relaxing cabanas and one of the world's longest lazy rivers.
Delicious Dining
Most visitors don't know that Buena Park also has a wide selection of popular restaurants including the award-winning Porto's Bakery & Cafe. The authentic Cuban restaurant serves mouth-watering pastries, flavorful sandwiches and unique coffee creations. Mrs. Knott's Chicken Dinner Restaurant has been serving its world-famous fried chicken, buttermilk biscuits and boysenberry pie for more than 75 years. Other top-notch international eateries include Yoshiharu Ramen, Gaucho Grill Argentinian Steakhouse, SUP Noodle Bar, Miss Shabu Restaurant & Sake Bar, and Michelin Bib Gourmand-recipient Ramen & Tsukemen TAO.
Even dinner is entertaining in Buena Park with three interactive dinner shows. Climb aboard an 18th century ship and join a swashbuckling crew at Pirates Dinner Adventure, a show with sword fighting, duels and aerial stunts. Feast like royalty at Medieval Times Dinner & Tournament featuring a joust competition, complete with horses and clashing knights. For adults, there's Beach Boulevard Club, a dueling piano bar with vintage Hollywood allure.
Fun Fact
Buena Park has served as the backdrop for several movies and television shows, including "National Treasure," "The Cable Guy" and "Master Chef" with Gordon Ramsay.
In 1932 on their farm in Buena Park, Walter Knott and Rudolph Boysen created the boysenberry – a cross between a raspberry, loganberry and blackberry.


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Lal Kitab Course in Dwarka Sector 9
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Buy Cleaning Products
Buy our top quality cleaning products to help your floors and upholstery stay protected and looking perfect in between your annual professional cleanings. You can have our high-quality cleaning products in your own home and you will be thrilled with the effectiveness before we come back for a deeper clean. They last a long time and will do the job for all your household accidents. Why not protect your biggest investment? The Pet Enzyme Treatment will work for any pet stains, and even some human accidents when you have little ones running around. The Multi-Surface Maintainer will keep your wood floors and tile looking great and disinfected until we return for your next cleaning. The Spot Remover will take care of any smaller spills to prevent staining. You won't be disappointed!


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As a homeowner, it can be incredibly helpful to have a comprehensive inventory of everything in your home. When disaster strikes, you'll have peace of mind knowing that you've cataloged your possessions and can provide proof to your insurance company if need be. But the thought of actually creating a home inventory can be pretty daunting. Where do you start? Let's take a closer look at how to tackle this important project.
What is a home inventory?
Simply put, a home inventory is a list of every item in your home and its value. It's something that will make your life much easier should you ever need to file a claim with your insurance company. Not only will the process be less stressful, but you'll also have the money in your hands faster. It will also help you determine if you have the right amount of coverage for your home.
What should be included?
Your home inventory should include all the items that would be covered under your homeowners insurance policy. This means the items in your home as well as anything you may have in storage elsewhere. You should record a description of the item and what you paid for it. If the item has a serial number such as a computer, then include that as well. Keep copies of your receipts for all these items and take photographs of them.
What should I use to record it?
There are many different ways that you can record your home inventory, and you should choose the one that is easiest for you. Many people use a simple spreadsheet to keep track of their home inventories. There are also many apps available that can help you with the process. If either of these options seems like too much to handle, then make a walk-through video of your home. While it won't contain as much information as a spreadsheet, it will be a good place to start.
What should I do with it?
Creating a home inventory takes time and effort, so you want to make sure you don't lose it. Obviously, you'll want to have a digital copy of your inventory. Store it in several places, such as emailing it to yourself, saving it in the cloud, and saving it on an external hard drive. You should also make a physical copy that you can keep somewhere else, such as at a relative's home. You may also want to send a copy to your insurance agent so that it is easily accessible to them when needed.
How can I make this easier to do?
Unless you're an extremely detail-oriented person who delights in making lists, creating a home inventory can sound tedious and stressful. Don't feel like you have to tackle this project in one day. Start small. List your most expensive items first, the ones that you know you would want to include in a claim. Then take it room by room. If you're really feeling overwhelmed by the process, then consider hiring a professional. Contact the National Association of Home Inventory Professionals to find out more.
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Lectionary Readings for Sunday, October 9th, 2022
Full Moon
Book of Judgement Chapter 11
1. REMEMBER thy Creator and the comprehension of His kingdoms; and be considerate of the words of thy God:
2. All men profess to desire resurrection; they hope to ascend to exalted heavenly spheres.
3. Yet, many will not even try to exalt themselves.
4. He saith in one breath: To not eat the flesh of anything created alive, is the highest.
5. But, straightway, he filleth his belly with flesh.
6. He saith: To return good for evil is the highest.
7. But he doeth evil even before the sound of his voice is hushed.
8. And yet, he will find fault with his Creator, if holy angels promise him not a high seat in heaven.
9. And there are others who constantly profess to have the higher light; but they go about tattling, and making evil remarks of their neighbors.
10. Yet, many of these do good unto others, giving to the helpless; verily are they both rising and falling, in regard to the resurrection.
11. The measure of the grade of such shall be by weighing the whole behavior as to its result in the community where he abideth. And this rule shall apply, both on earth and in heaven, to all such people.
12. There are men who do great good unto others, and are talented withal, but who are great liars; and much prone to exaggeration. So, that their good works are outbalanced by the shame of their tongues.
13. The grade of resurrection of such shall not be modified or benefited but little by their good works. But they shall be weighed as to such evil habit, whether it be increasing or decreasing; and the grade of such man shall be accordingly, and shall come under the rank of spiritual disease. Because it will be entailed upon them into the es world, and shut them out from the grade which they manifested.
14. When thou searchest for the grade of a city, therefore, all such persons shall stand as grade one.
15. There be some who say: I care not for the spiritual man nor the es worlds. One world at a time is sufficient for me.
16. And they may be good as to the way of the city, contributing alms to the helpless, and visiting the sick. Nevertheless, they utter truthfully their own resurrection, which shall stand grade one.
17. There is no crime in them, but a misfortunate embecility of spirit. When such persons die, their knowledge, for the most part, dieth with them. And the enter the es world even as if they had died in infancy.
18. They shall stand grade one, because owing to their weakness of spirit, they must need be inhabited on the earth for many years.
19. There be others, who are forever talking of heaven, and consulting the spirits of the dead, who are, nevertheless, low as to good works, and low in holiness of heart. These shall be graded the same as liars and hypocrites.
20. For in prophecy, thou shalt estimate the sum of all the virtues and vices of thyself, and of thy neighbor, and of the whole city, or state, or even the world; and accredit the grade in ascension or declension, and thou shalt compare one generation with another, as to the increase or decrease of its spirituality.
21. And thou shalt know of a truth the standing of the whole world.
22. And from this, thou shalt also determine the time, when man came on the earth; how long the race will survive and bring forh; and the time he shall become extinct as to the earth.


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Read my August 1, 2023 op-ed in the Washington Post.
If you believe the 190 acres of RFK's campus could be more than the next NFL stadium, say #HailNo and sign this petition below:
"As a DC resident, I am against a deal that gives away a single square foot of land or a single District tax dollar to build a new stadium.
- I believe the 190 acres alongside the Anacostia River could be so much more than oceans of asphalt for surface parking and a 60,000 seat stadium.
- On average, most NFL stadiums only hold 10 to 20 events annually outside of eight NFL home games, meaning the stadium sits empty more than 300 days a year. An enormous space that sits empty doesn't spur economic growth or create meaingful jobs and doesn't help the surrounding community.
- Make no mistake - people drive to NFL games and they're going to park somewhere, regardless of how much is available. At San Francisco's new stadium, they had to rent out all of the parking lots at a nearby amusement park. Where do you think people will park around RFK if there isn't enough parking for fans?
- Nationwide, since 1997 we've seen the NFL pit communities against each other while collecting more than $6.7 billion dollars from taxpayers to build stadiums for privately-owned teams. Overall, local taxpayers end up footing around half the bill for a new NFL stadium.
- The costs of these projects are always higher than estimated. The five most recent newly-constructed NFL stadiums have surpassed more than $1 billion dollars each!
- As a DC resident, I don't want to see DC hoodwinked into paying for a billionaire's stadium. The District needs our tax dollars to create new housing at all levels, support local DC entrepreneurs who run small and local business, take urgent steps forward to shift to a 100% clean energy environment, build larger and modern schools for our growing city, fund our Metro system, and in general spend money to make life better and easier for DC residents.
- Sitting on the banks of the historic Anacostia River, a new stadium and all of the traffic and trash that would come along, would set the Anacostia River's improvement back. RFK has never had to meet standards set by the National Environmental Policy Act, and I am concerned any deal worked out under the outgoing Congress would try to extend the exemption to holding the site accountable to environmental standards.
Dedicating millions of dollars to bring an NFL stadium to the District is a bad deal and a poor use of an incredible opportunity.
Thank you."


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Table of Contents
My Most Popular Chinese Recipes ❤
Tips, tricks, and recipes for perfect Chinese dishes
My Most Popular Chinese Recipes ❤
Tips, tricks, and recipes for Chinese dishes
Chinese Chicken Noodles
This chicken noodles recipe was inspired by a recipe book that I flipped through at my grocery store.
The timing couldn't be better, as I had some fresh egg noodles in the fridge. Then, I was able to make these mouthwatering chicken noodles for lunch yesterday.
How to Prepare the Chicken
The best part of these noodles was the chicken.
I marinated the chicken with some soy sauce, oyster sauce, Shaoxing wine, sesame oil, white pepper, and a secret ingredient that made all the difference: Worcestershire sauce.
I then pan-fried the chicken, and topped the simple fried egg noodles with the chicken, including the delicious juice from the chicken.
The Best Noodles to Use
This noodle recipe is so easy to make, with ingredients that you can get at regular grocery stores.
If you can't find fresh egg noodles (also labeled as chow mein or steamed chow mein in the United States), you can always use dried egg noodles.
How Many Calories per Serving?
This recipe is only 588 calories per serving.
What Dishes to Serve with This Recipe?
For a wholesome meal and easy weeknight dinner, I recommend the following recipes.
Chicken Stir-fry Noodles
- 6 oz (170g) skinless and boneless chicken thigh or leg meat, cut into small pieces
- 10 oz (280g) fresh egg noodles
- 3 tablespoons cooking oil
- 2 cloves garlic (minced)
- 1/2 cup shredded cabbage
- 1/4 cup shredded carrot
- 1 tablespoon soy sauce
- 1 tablespoon oyster sauce
- 2 tablespoons water
- 1/2 tablespoon soy sauce
- 1 teaspoon oyster sauce
- 1/2 tablespoon Worcestershire sauce
- 1 teaspoon Shaoxing wine
- 3 dashes white pepper
- 1 teaspoon sugar
- 1/2 teaspoon sesame oil
- Sesame seeds
- Scallion (sliced diagonally)
- Rinse the fresh egg noodles with cold water, drain the excess water and set aside.
- In a small mixing bowl, marinate the chicken with all the seasonings in the Marinade, for 15 minutes.
- Heat up a wok with 1 tablespoon of the cooking oil. When the wok is heated, add the chicken into the wok and pan-fry the chicken until slightly charred and blackened on both sides. Remove the chicken from the wok and into a bowl. Set aside.
- Clean the wok and heat it up with the remaining 2 tablespoons of oil. Add in the minced garlic and stir-fry until light brown or aromatic. Add the shredded cabbage and carrot into the wok and do a few quick stirs. Stir in the noodles, soy sauce, oyster sauce, and water.
- Continue to stir fry until the noodles are well blended with the seasonings and completely cooked through. Dish out and transfer into two serving bowls. Top the chicken noodles with the chicken (and its juice), garnish with the sesame seeds and scallion. Serve immediately.


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Prime Minister Olmert Ehud stated yesterday at Annapolis, that the Israeli government alone is the only party that has the right to determine the fate of Jerusalem -- a direct snub at American Jewish groups who stated that Jerusalem is a "Jewish" issue and not an "Israeli" one.
Should Ehud Olmert alone should not have the right to determine Jerusalem's fate? Olmert takes world Jewry's money, takes their support, asks for their support, begs them to visit, asks them to plant trees...yet he alone is allowed to determine the fate of Jerusalem? Perhaps the time has to come where the State of Israel humbly acknowledges that they alone cannot decide the fate of Jerusalem?
One interesting idea I heard from Moshe Feiglin is that if he were Prime Minister of Israel, we would favor a 2 house parliament, where 1 house would be comprised of the residents of Israel (Jews, Muslims, Christians, all residents of the land), which would deal with internal issue of local importance. The second house would be for Jews only -- to deal with issues of national, Jewish importance. After all, as Israel is a Jewish State and national Jewish homeland, this house of parliament should have representation of World Jewry.
When I looked at this website yesterday (what can you do to help save Jerusalem) that opposed Olmert's policy of splitting Jerusalem at Annapolis, I found the following Jewish groups to be aligned with the website -- for Olmert to snub them means he just wants your money, but doesn't really care about you at all. (The OU should take heed before they honor Olmert again).
Supporting Organizations: Coordinating Council on Jerusalem (CCJ), AISH, American Friends of Likud, Americans for a Safe Israel, Amit, Association for Jewish Outreach Programs, Christians Standing for Israel, Chicago Board of Rabbis, Emunah, Flatbush Va'ad, Heartland Institute, Isralight, Jerusalem Reclamation Project, NCSY, National Council of Young Israel, One Israel Fund, Hineni, Poalei Agudath Israel, Project Genesis, Rabbinic Alliance to Save Jerusalem, Rabbinical Alliance of America, Rabbinical Councinl of America (RCA), Reform Students for Israel, Religious Zionists of American, Russian Jewish Community Foundation, Secular Jews for Israel, Students for Israel, The Jerusalem Connection, Union of Orthodox Jewish Congregations (OU), Unity Coalition for Israel, Young Israel Council of Rabbis, Zionist Organization of America (ZOA) (list is not finalized)Another related topic from yesterday is an "alternative" Jewish Congress that met yesterday.
It's becoming more and more obvious that Olmert, and even the State of Israel should not be able to unilaterally decide the crucial issues of Israel's existence -- especially when asking for everything from World Jewry.THE NEW JEWISH CONGRESS, a Preparatory Conference Concerning THE SOVEREIGNTY OF THE JEWISH NATION OVER THE JEWISH STATE IN ERETZ-ISRAEL, is currently (TUESDAY, November 27, 2007, 3:30 PM underway in Ramada-Renaissance Hotel in Jerusalem. The conference will close its doors at 8 PM this evening. The conference evoked considerable interest among Israelis from all walks of life, some of whom found themselves rallying in Jerusalem until late last night against Annapolis and then returning to the city to attend the conference which opened its doors this morning. Jews and Gentiles abroad also expressed interest and support.
Political issues of Jewish sovereignty were discussed by Shlomo Idan, a secular intellectual and Mattot Arim activist residing in Rehovot, an academic town which houses the world-famous Weizmann Institute of Science. Idan discussed the Hebrew concept of "gnevat kolot" (vote stealing) in which a politician elected under a first agenda turns around and operates under a contradictory agenda. Idan noted that this phenomenon when practiced by two reneging rightwing MKs in 1995 had resulted in the Oslo accords passing by a majority of exactly 2. Another example was the forceable deportation from Gush Katif initiated by Premier Ariel Sharon who had been elected on precisely the opposite agenda as evidenced by one of his well known pronouncements promising permanent status to settlements. A third example was the vote of the 300,000-strong Likud membership against the Gush Katif deportation, initiated by Premier Sharon himself but ignored when the result was the opposite of that he anticipated. Finally, Idan focussed on a quote by veteran Israeli MK Micky Eitan in which Eitan asserted that a party platform does not obligate the representatives of that party. Idan warned that a solution, perhaps even legislation, must be found to eradicate this phenomenon which renders the Jewish people powerless to control its own destiny as unscrupulous politicians take the helm again and again.
Aviad Vissoly, Likud activist and attorney hailing from Haifa, spoke about the contentious issue of the eastern border of the Jewish state. Vissoly pointed out that the eastern border of Israel clearly includes the entirety of Judea and Samaria since Israel has applied its sovereignty to this area on at least six separate occasions, namely in its Declaration of Independence (de jure), in the Six Day War (de facto), when Jordan announced its disassociation from Judea and Samaria, in Israel's peace accord with Jordan, brokered by the United States, in which the international border with Israel's eastern neighbor was determined to be the Jordan River, in the Oslo Accords in which the Palestinians agreed to autonomy, as opposed to a state, and that in specific regions termed A and B alone rather than in the entirety of Judea and Samaria, and by virtue of the application of many Israeli laws to Judea and Samaria.
Rabbi Dov Stein, a central rabbinical activist in an attempt, spearheaded by talmudic scholar Rabbi Adin Steinzaltz, to revive the Sanhedrin, described the civil service and warned of the dangers of nepotism in the ranks of the civil servants of the Jewish state. Blatant favoritism toward relatives and friends is not conducive to the Jewish sovereignty that is to be striven for, Stein said.
Dr. Amnon Hever spoke of social justice in the spirit of Israel's prophets, such as Isaiah, Amos and others, and emphasized that this was a prerequisite for rebuilding of the Temple according to various Jewish sources. Hever regretted that Israel's early pioneers, who were committed to social justice, attempted to implement it relying on the principles of communism and socialism as opposed to sterling Jewish principles. Hever suggested that alternative frameworks take upon themselves various social, economic and health functions which Israel's government is failing to provide. Hever's analysis shed new light on the proliferation of just this type of organization in Israel today, effectively replacing the government in many arenas, such as mutual aid philanthropy (thousands of Gamach funds often run by synagogogues or respected individuals, Koach laTet and more), health (Ezer MiZion, Yad Sara, Rabbi Firer's consultation service, Kav laChayim, etc.) emergency care (Hatzala, Zaka), financial consulting (Paamonim), labor relations (Maaglei Zedek), criminal justice (Human Rights in Yesha, Honenu) and more.
Tel-Aviv philosopher Ohad Kamin spoke on the topic of human rights and emphasized that this modern notion is based directly and almost exclusively on classic Jewish values. Kamin said that this should be emphasized, to give the Jewish state a better standing in international politics in which human rights is a very popular and politically inspiring concept at this time, particularly insofar as young voters and activists are concerned. Focusing on this topic would allow Israel to win its existential wars and simultaneously to exercise its traditional role of acting as a "light unto the nations", Kamin said.
And regarding Reform Jewry's patralineal descent and conversions...that's going to be a very difficult issue to reconcile.
Ideas welcome :)
Wherever I am, my blog turns towards Eretz Yisrael


text: /:16 SIP voice-over-internet calling is one of the quiet new features of Android 2.3 a.k.a. "Gingerbread". Without any third-party apps, you can set up any SIP-compatible phone service to make calls over your data network. This video shows the steps, and now we're intrigued as to whether a free SIP client, like the SIPGate we used in our Google Voice setup, works in Android as well. We'll try it out, but have you already given it a go? Tell us in the comments. [via Android and Me]


text: Immediately following the overwhelming popularity of Via Bloor 1, Tridel presents Via Bloor 2. Register to become a part of the city's next great neighbourhood. This vital, new promenade at Bloor and Parliament will be a community that invites you to shop, eat, live, and explore. Living at Via Bloor means access to brand new retail, green space, plus the neighbouring amenities of Rosedale Ravine, the Don Valley, Sherbourne & Castle Frank subway stations, and the Danforth.


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There's No Question, Romney Changed the Game
Obama will need to be both aggressive and presidential in the second debate.
Before the first presidential debate, this column repeatedly pointed out that Mitt Romney needed something to happen -- an event or development that would change the trajectory of this race -- or he would lose. As Jay Leno remarked, the only people who thought President Obama won the debate were the NFL replacement referees. Unquestionably, the Denver debate changed the course of the race enormously. For Romney, it was necessary, but we will have to see if it is sufficient to put him over the finish line first.
That debate was the first of what former Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld might have called "known unknowns," meaning potentially significant events that could alter the landscape. These include the three presidential debates and the vice presidential debate, and two unemployment reports, the one that came out last week and the one on Nov. 2. That, of course, leaves the possibility of "unknown unknowns" shaking things up.
Some conflicting forces are certainly at work. For almost four years, the economy has been a millstone around Obama's neck. As voters hear about the stock market nearing five-year highs and the resurrection of the housing sector, the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence is at a seven-month high while the University of Michigan's national Index of Consumer Sentiment is at a four-month peak. Polls show that right direction is up, wrong track is down, and the public perceives, correctly or not, that the economy is improving. Although in my mind and those of many economists, it's one step forward and one back, in the minds of voters that millstone around the president's neck is at least getting a little lighter.
Looking only at polls using live interviewers calling respondents with landlines as well as those with cell phones, the race has become competitive once again. Romney now leads Obama by 4 points, 49 percent to 45 percent, among likely voters in the Pew Research Center's postdebate polling; he had trailed the president by 8 points last month.
In the daily Gallup tracking, in the three days leading up to the debate, Obama had a 5-point edge among all registered voters, 50 percent to 45 percent. In the three days immediately after the debate, Obama dropped 3 points, to 47 percent, while Romney gained 2 points, to 47 percent, making the race even. But that was among all registered voters. Gallup has now switched to releasing both likely- and registered-voter numbers in its seven-day weekly averages. Through Tuesday night, Romney and Obama were polling even among likely voters, 48 percent to 48 percent, down from the 2-point lead that Romney had over Obama the previous day, while among registered voters, Obama has a 5-point lead, up from the 3-point edge he had the day before. The numbers of interviews through Tuesday night would have included one night of polling on the actual night of the debate, with the remaining six days' data collected after the debate. Most of the interviews were conducted after the Labor Department's report on Oct. 5, which showed unemployment for September dropping below 8 percent, to 7.8 percent.
There is no question that the debate was a game changer; the questions we still don't have the answers to are whether it changed the game enough and whether there will be more game changers benefiting either candidate.
A postdebate Ohio survey for CNN put Obama ahead in that state by 4 points among likely voters, 51 percent to 47 percent. Before the debate, the incumbent had been leading by 5 to 8 points in private polling, so the debate would appear to have had some impact but possibly not enough. Given how bad both Michigan and Pennsylvania look for Romney, he desperately needs a breakthrough in Ohio; for a Republican to win the White House without Ohio (it's never been done), Michigan, or Pennsylvania would be the equivalent of drawing a royal flush in poker.
A WMUR/University of New Hampshire poll showed that the swing state had narrowed from a 15-point spread for Obama, 52 percent to 37 percent last month, to 6 points, 47 percent to 41 percent, postdebate. Few pros on either side gave the slightest credence to Obama having a 15-point lead before; it's difficult to take seriously the suggestion that the president's lead actually dropped 11 points. My guess is that last month's WMUR poll was an outlier; that Obama's lead was probably in the high single digits then; and that the 6-point figure now is probably right, and maybe even a point or two high. A Selzer & Company poll (the same firm also does The Des Moines Register and Bloomberg News surveys) for the University of Denver shows likely Colorado voters giving Obama a 4-point postdebate edge, 47 percent to 43 percent, perhaps a little closer than before but not a collapse.
The problem with state polls is that most are in the extraterrestrial category; robo-polls are often all over the map. Aficionados would be well advised to focus on state-level polling offered by NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist University; CBS/New York Times/Quinnipiac University; and by ABC, CNN, Fox News, and other brand names that specifically use live interviewers calling voters with landlines as well as the 30 to 40 percent of voters (mostly young people and minorities) who have only cell phones. Although poll aggregators have a good technique in averaging data, be advised that a lot of dubious information goes into those averages; it's wiser to focus on the brand names with the more traditional (and very costly) methodology.
Obama's challenge is to recalibrate his strategy for the next debate. He must be more aggressive, but going too far risks not coming across as presidential. It is a very fine line that he will have to walk.


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Martin Hairer talking at the Heidelberg Laureate Forum 2017. Foto: Bernhard Kreutzer for HLFF (c) Pressefoto Kreutzer
Plus is currently in Heidelberg, Germany, visiting the Heidelberg Laureate Forum 2017. The Forum gives young researchers in maths and computer science the chance to meet some of the best minds in their fields — and it gives us the opportunity to meet and interview both the laureates and the next generation. We'll be bringing you some in-depth coverage soon, but in the meantime we leave you with a brain teaser we learnt from Fields medallist Martin Hairer yesterday.
Imagine you have two envelopes. They both contain money, one twice as much as the other. You can pick one and keep the money inside. But just before you open your chosen envelope you are given the chance to change your mind. What should you do?
Write $x$ for the amount that's in your chosen envelope. This means that the amount of money in the other envelope is either $2x$ or $x/2$. The probability that it's $2x$ is $1/2$ and so is the probability that it's $x/2$. So the expected amount you'll get is
$$\frac{1}{2}\left(2x+\frac{x}{2}\right) =x+\frac{x}{4} = \frac{5x}{4}.$$ Since that's bigger than $x$, you should swap envelopes. But what if you are given another chance to swap envelopes after you have changed your mind once? By the same reasoning as above you should swap back again. And then, by the same argument again, you should swap a third time, and so on, forever. You end up in an infinite loop of swapping and never get any money at all. Is there something wrong with the reasoning? If yes, then what? Post your thoughts as a comment below!Comments
Something is wrong!
Your envelope has either x or 2x with equal probability or an expected value of 1.5x. If you have x and switch you get 2x and if you have 2x and switch you get x, each with equal probability --- you still have an expected value of 1.5x. So, no advantage or disadvantage in switching.
I agree - no advantage to
I agree - no advantage to switching. I think this is a variation of the Monty Hall problem - where you have three choices to make, but after you choose he opens one of the remaining curtains to show the prize and asks if you want to switch - which you always should to better your odds from 1/3 to 1/2. In this case there are only two options and no new information - why change!
That's not quite right.
That's not quite right.
If you assume x is the amount in your current envelope, switching will either double your money to 2x, or halve it to x/2, leading to an expected gain when switching as shown in the article.
You need to look a little deeper and think about what the implications are of saying that for any x the envelope has either x or 2x with equal probability.
If x and 2x are the amounts in the envelopes, then the expected value at the beginning of the game is (3/2)x.
You choose an envelope.
If you switch envelopes, the expected value of the money in the envelope you switch to is STILL (3/2)x.
The error is that when you say "switching can double your money to 2x or halve it to x/2", you are making a tacit assumption that you have information about your current choice - that you know what x itself is in some sense. This isn't the Monty Hall problem at all - in the MH problem you've gained information before you are offered the option of changing doors. Here, you've gained NO information in between, so there's no advantage to switching.
Not quite right
I think your last sentence contains a simple but key point Wessen. Here's my take on it:
We're told to call our choice of envelope "x", and presumably nothing else.
And to consider that the other envelope has either twice as much or half as much.
So far so good. But then comes the false step. If we now go back and use the very same original designation "x" in expressing these two possibilities as x and 2x we're caught up in a self-contradiction, since there are now at least two possibilities compared to one at the beginning. And if we add that beginning one to the present two we get three which we inevitably calculate as x, 2x, 1/2x. (And of course if we then continue and use the term x to designate our choice between these three, we're definitely sliding down a long road of confusion.)
Put it another way. It's as if in one envelope instead of cash we have a piece of paper with "x" written on it, and in the other just a piece with "2x" written on it. And if we then we go ahead and call our actual choice of envelope "x" as well, the logical clash (or collapse) appears to allow the possibilities to multiply.
This explanation needs no reference to probabilities or expected values.
So few commenters are
So few commenters are thinking about the distribution - they are all getting hung up on the algebra and what 'x' might be etc. But if you think about the distribution you realise the whole problem is broken. It is not possible for x & 2x (or x/2 for that matter) to have equal probability because for a uniform probability distribution there has to be a maximum amount, after which the probability will be 0.
Indeed, if the amounts in the
Indeed, if the amounts in the two envelopes are x and 2x then your expected payoff is 1.5x, but here x is not the envelope you chose, it is the amount in the smallest envelope. So I agree with everything here, except the last sentence about the advantage of switching - noting that the expected payoff is 1.5x doesn't tell us anything about the advantage of switching.
I disagree
(Just stumbled on this from two years ago.) I disagree with this reply. In your analysis, what is x when you say "your envelope is either x or 2x". Please identify the variable "x" first. i.e. Start with "let x be ....." It seems you are letting the symbol "x" represent two different things here, two different variables.
But if one says "Let x be the value in the envelope chosen", then it IS correct to say the other envelope either has value x/2 or value 2x, and therefore an expected value of 5x/4. So, change!
Baseline for comparison
I think the point is that you should only switch if the expected value is greater than the expected value of not switching. Not switching is 5x/4 (or 3x/2 if the problem description is taken literally) and so is switching. So your return is the same either way. Maybe we get lulled into thinking there's a trick because the expected value is greater than x. But that's not important - there's more than 2x on the table, split between two envelopes, so we should expect an expected value greater than x.
This is different to the Monty Hall problem in that the expected value of switching is *different* to the expected value of sticking with the original choice, and only because the situation has changed (a door is opened). That's what you can't keep applying it.
The trick appears to be about
The trick appears to be about what exactly it is that is denoted by letter "x" in the calculation in question, and what is implicitly assumed about relevant probabilities.
Let e1 and e2 be random variables denoting amounts in the envelopes marked 1 and 2, respectively. Then, obviously:
p(e1 > e2) = p(e2 > e1) = 1/2
However, the probability to find more in envelope 2 than in envelope 1 given amount x in envelope 1 must be conditional on x:
p(e2 > e1 | e1 = x) = p(e2 > x)
It depends on x, and is either 1 or 0 depending on whether x is the minimum or the maximum of its two possible values. It cannot be 1/2 irrespective of x as assumed by the calculation in question.
The Two Envelopes Problem
It is not true that the probabilities of the other amount being 2x and x/2 are both equal to 1/2.
In fact they depend on the size of x relative to whatever probability distribution arises from the process by which the envelopes were filled.
Let us say that the envelopes
Let us say that the envelopes contain Y and 2Y "amounts of money". You can only call it x after you have choosen an envelope already. So there are 2 cases and you have to analyse what you will get if you switch:
you have picked Y and called it x
you have picked 2Y and called it x
and this solves the paradox?
Expected value
I think the description of "expected value" should be clarified into "expected value of other envelope". Because if we are talking about expected value of both envelopes, there would be no paradox because the expected value of the whole game would be similar even whether you switch or not switch the envelope.
But the paradox came when we try to calculate the "expected value of other envelope", which has been calculated correctly above.
Swap and swap again
One weak point seems to me to be formula for the expected amount.
I'd have thought it would be less appropriate for a one off choice between hanging on to an envelope and swapping it for just one other containing either half or double, and more for one in which there were a long series of such envelopes each either doubling or halving the previous, making it more and more likely as you go on that if you were to stop you'd be 25% ahead of that first envelope. If you started by swapping £10 for the chance of getting £5 or £20, and then getting and swapping back £5 for £10 or £2.50; or instead getting and swapping back £20 for £10 or £40, the formula suggests to me the longer you go on doing this the more likely you are to have 5x£10/4 = £12.50 when you arbitrarily stop.
Swapping under these conditions becomes more reasonable as you go on, given you never know what's in the envelope you have now and thus able to retire earlier with bigger winnings. But at least you never come out an overall loser from when you started, at worst just ahead by a ridiculously small fraction of a penny.
the value of x in 2x and x/2 is different
write a and 2a for the amount of money in those two envelope, write x for the amount of money that is in your chosen envelope. The x can be a or 2a in both cases with the probability of 1/2. When the x is a, the amount of another envelope must be 2a, vice versa. If you change your mind to choose another envelope, in fact the expected amount you will get is:
"the expected value when your chosen envelope is a " plus "the expected value when your chosen envelope is 2a", which is 1/2*(2x) (when x equals a ) plus 1/2*x/2 (when x equals 2a).
so the expected amount you will get is 1/2*(2x(x=a)+x/2(x=2a))=1/2(2a+a)=3/2*a.
At the same time, the expected value of the first envelope is 1/2*a+1/2*2a=3/2*a.
In conclusion, you do not have to change your mind if you choose one envelope.
The key point is that the " x " in the chosen envelope is a random variable, the x in 2x or x/2 for the amount of other envelope is two different value .
Never use a $5 Equation....
Presumably twice as much money is heavier...so if you've swapped it once, you can just compare the weights to know whether you should swap it back or not :-)
Expected value
I think the article should more clearly state that (5x/4) is expected amount of "taking other envelope". The expected amount of the whole game has not changed, no matter you swap/not-swap the envelope, but the paradox happens during the moment you consider switching (taking other envelope).
x isn't a constant
Isn't the problem in calling the amount in your first envelope x. Imagine that the quantities are 1 and 2 pounds in the envelope. In one scenario, x = 1 and by swapping you end up with 2 pounds, but in the other scenario x = 2 and by swapping you end up with one pound, x is variable and not a fixed value.
What is described here would be the situation if you had to decide between a guaranteed one pound OR picking one of two envelopes which contain either 2 pounds or 50 pence (either doubling or halving the one pound). In that situation if you looked at expected winnings you would go for the second option.
What is x?
A hint:
there are two amounts, the smaller, S, and the larger, L.
When asked to "write x for the amount that's in your chosen envelope" what does x equal?
Back and forth
I think the basic confusion is a contradiction between two uses of the word "choose", and hence of "swap".
I can dither in winter between Ibiza and Majorca for my summer holidays, choosing Ibiza one day, swapping it for Majorca the next, and swapping back again to Ibiza the day after, and so on endlessly, or at least for a week or two. But although I've used the word "choose" here, it's equally true to say the opposite, namely that I've actually failed to choose as long as I fail to take any action that changes things irreversibly, such as make a booking. And if I haven't made a choice, how can I swap it?
Similarly if my choice of envelope doesn't result in any irreversible change, for example going on to be offered a further choice between a further pair of envelopes, one which is half and the other double that original choice, then to say that I've chosen and swapped anything at all is to say no more than I've dithered, just as in my holiday resort example.
Why swiching?
Nice one!! Similar to the three doors problem. If I am correct, the point is the implication: if the mean value is bigger than one -> switch envelop.
Before choosing any of the envelop, according to how the amount in the envelop is parametrised we can have mean value of 3/4x (envelop1 = x, envelop2 = 0.5 x) or 3/2x (envelop1 = x, envelop2 = 2 x). Using the same implication above, in the first case is not convenient to play the game (pessimistic parametrisation!), in the second it is convenient (optimistic parametrisation!).
This probably makes sense only if x is the quantity that we put in the game from our pocket, and in the game A we can receive x or 0.5x while in the game B we can receive x or 2x.
If, after "normalising", there are two quantities that we can win: 1 dollar or 2 dollars and the probability of winning one or the other is 0.5, then the mean value is always 3/2, either when we start the game choosing an envelop for the first time, or if we are asked to change it during the game, as no new information are acquired from one situation to the other.
So, I would not waste time changing envelop an infinite amount of time; instead I would play as many time as possible :-)
I know what is wrong
The probability that you have the larger amount is indeed 1/2. The probability that you have the smaller amount is also 1/2. But the joint probability that you have the larger amount *AND* that amount is X is undetermined.
Let me explain with an example. Say I prepare six envelopes. I put a $10 bill inside one, and set it aside. I distribute one $20 bill and four $5 bills between the rest, pick one at random, and give it to you along with the one I set aside. I can now truthfully say "They both contain money, one twice as much as the other."
The probability that you have the smaller envelope is 50%. But this is broken down into a 40% chance that you have $5 and the smaller envelope, a 10% chance that you have $10 and the smaller envelope, and a 0% chance that you have $20 and the smaller envelope. Similarly, there is a 0% chance that you have $5 and the larger envelope, a 40% chance that you have $10 and the larger envelope, and a 10% chance that you have $20 and the larger envelope. If we call the amount in your envelope X, then X is clearly either $5, $10, or $20. BUT THERE IS NO VALUE OF X WHERE THE PROBABILITY THAT X IS THE SMALLER AMOUNT IS THE SAME AS THE PROBABILITY THAT X IS THE LARGER AMOUNT.
If I let you look in your envelope, and you see a $10 bill, there is only a (10%)/(10%+40%)=20% chance that it is the smaller amount. This is called a conditional probability; it found by dividing the probability of the outcome you know ($10) and the outcome you are interested in (smaller) happening together, by the total probability of the outcome you know. Similarly, the chance that it is the larger amount is (40%)/(10%+40%)=80%.
The point is that the solution suggested in the article is wrong. When you assign the unknown X to your amount, you can't use the simple probabilities of picking the smaller or larger envelope. You need to use the joint probability of picking the smaller envelope *AND* the pair containing (X, 2X) with the joint probability of picking the larger envelope *AND* the pair containing (X/2, X). If you don't know the relative likelihoods of (X/2, X) and (X, 2X), you can't make this calculation.
But if you call the total amount in both envelopes 3X, then you don't need to know any relative likelihoods. There is a 50% chance that switching will gain X, and a 50% chance that switching will lose X.
log in
There are always the same two envelopes. Whether one of the envelopes is in my hand or on the moon makes no difference to the probabilities involved. A sequence of choices makes no difference to the probabilities involved - there are always the same two envelopes to choose between. The average value of the contents of the envelopes also has no relevance to the probabilities involved. My choice - no matter how many times I do it - always has a 50% chance x and a 50% chance of 2x
There's no probabilistic justification for changing envelopes
This is different to the Monty Hall problem that makes use of Bayes Theorem, where after the initial choice of door information is gained by Monty opening a door to reveal nothing is behind it.
In this envelopes situation, no information is gained after making our initial choice, about the probability of the contents in the other envelope - the expected value is the same as it was at the outset so there is no probabilistic reasoning to employ to justify altering our decision.
Consider different prior
Consider different prior probs: in particular assign to ln(2x) probability 1/2 and to ln(x/2) probability 1/2. Then, the expected value of the other envelop becomes
ln(2x) 1/2 + ln(x/2) 1/2 = ln(x)
which is the same as the logarithm of the value on your envelop.
Impossible to pick a number randomly
This is a good one! The snag is that there's no uniform probability distribution on positve integers (or reals).
Minting money..
If I instead of taking the envelope, (equivalently) toss a coin. And let us say I choose 'Heads'. Question: This situation above is it not akin to then changing my mind to 'Tails' -- and so on?
What is the fundamental reason that one should keep flipping from 'Heads' to 'Tails' and back-n-forth, and assume there is more money being made from (equivalent) future iterations.
This is a Ponzi scheme. :-)
All About Ponzi Scam
The Ponzi scheme is a fraudulent one which is initiated to grab new investors to pay off dues of the old investors. Portfolio Executives manage the flow of funds within the scheme. Furthermore keep a record of new investments and monitor payments. Basically its an age-old customary scheme that continued till date. Its name was coined after Charles Ponzi, the father and originator of the racket. He was known for starting the era of embezzlement in the 1920s.
What if the envelopes contained, say $1 and $100? As far as I understand it, the math above goes out the window, but the decision of whether or not to swap envelopes doesn't change. It's basically 50/50 odds.
Two envelopes
x is the amount in your chosen envelope. Let L = lower amount and H = higher amount. H=2L.
Expected value of x is 1/2*L + 1/2*H = 1/2*L + 1/2*2L = 3/2 * L
Expected value of the other envelope is also 3/2 * L by symmetry, so there's no point in switching.
The (deliberate) flaw in the formula they set out is that they say the amount in the other envelope is either 2x or x/2, but this means that one envelope is worth 4 times the other, which we know isn't the case!
If only it were true!
Very interesting. If I swap twice do I get 5x/4 squared? Maybe I will get someone to swap on my behalf and go on an expensive holiday knowing full well it will be paid for when I get back!
The Great Gatsby Game
I call my choice of envelope x.
Then the other must be 2x or 1/2x.
I like the sound of that, so I swap.
So my first choice is now the other envelope and is 2(2x or 1/2x) or 1/2(2x or 1/2x) = 4x or x or x or 1/4x = 4x or x or 1/4x
I like the sound of that even better, so I swap again
So the other envelope is now 2(4x or x or 1/4x) or 1/2(4x or x or 1/4x) = 8x or 2x or 1/2x or 2x or 1/2x or 1/8x = 8x or 2x or 1/2x or 1/8x.
Yes, you got it, I swap again ... and again till the first term is like (2^100)x or something, then I open the envelope.
That's how I get to be one of those mysterious billionaires.
The "expected value" doesn't matter.
Instead of thinking about the two outcomes of the situation, it is better evaluated by the amount of change that will be experienced by the switch. You can either hold the 2x or the x with equal odds, so if you don't make the switch, it is fifty/fifty either way. If you hold the x and switch to the 2x, that is a net gain of x. However, if you hold the 2x and switch to the x, that is a net loss of x. Averaging these outcomes, you get 0.5(x - x)= 0, which shows that there is no net gain or loss in making the switch.


text:
Parallel Concatenated Convolutional Coding: Turbo Codes
This example characterizes the performance of turbo codes over a noisy channel. It shows the basic structure of turbo codes at the transmitter and receiver. We chose the Long Term Evolution (LTE) specifications [ 4 ] for the constituent component parameters.
The invention of turbo codes [ 1 ], along with the development of iterative decoding principles with near Shannon limit performance, has led to their absorption in a wide variety of applications some of which include deep space communications, third generation wireless standards, and digital video broadcasting [ 3 ].
Available Example Implementations
This example includes both MATLAB® and Simulink® implementations:
MATLAB script using System objects: commTurboCoding.m
Simulink model using System blocks: commpccc.slx
Simulink model using variable-sized code-blocks: commpcccvs.slx
Both the MATLAB and Simulink implementations of the system are set up so you can simulate the system over a range of Eb/No values for user-specified system parameters like code block length and number of decoding iterations. The following sections use the fixed-size code-block Simulink implementation to describe the details of the coding scheme.
Turbo Encoder
A comm.TurboEncoder
is a parallel concatenation scheme with multiple constituent Convolutional encoders. The first encoder operates directly on the input bit sequence, while any others operate on interleaved input sequences, obtained by interleaving the input bits over a block length.
The System block based Turbo Encoder block uses two identical 8-state recursive systematic convolutional encoders. The comm.ConvolutionalEncoder
System object™ uses the "Terminated" setting for the TerminationMethod
property. This restores the encoders to the starting all-zeros state for each frame of data the block processes. The internal block interleaver uses pre-computed permutation indices, based on the user-specified Code block length parameter (see the Model Parameters block
). The bit reordering subsystem removes the extra set of systematic bits from the second encoder output and realizes the trellis termination as per [ 4 ].
Iterative Decoding
For iterative decoding of the parallel concatenated encoding scheme, the comm.TurboDecoder
uses the a posteriori probability (APP) decoder [ 2 ] as the constituent decoder component.
Each comm.APPDecoder
System object corresponds to a constituent encoder which provides an updated sequence of log-likelihood values for the uncoded bits from the received sequence of log-likelihoods for the channel (coded) bits. For each set of received channel sequences, the decoder iteratively updates the log-likelihoods for the uncoded bits until a stopping criterion is met. This example uses a fixed number of decoding iterations, as specified by the Number of decoding iterations parameter in the model's Model Parameters
block. The default number of iterations is six.
The TerminationMethod
property for the APP Decoder System object is set to be "Terminated" to match the encoders. The decoder does not assume knowledge of the tail bits and as a result, these are excluded from the multiple iterations.
The internal interleaver of the decoder is identical to the one the encoder uses. It reorders the sequences so that they are properly aligned at the two decoders.
BER Performance
The following figure shows the bit error rate performance of the parallel concatenated coding scheme in an AWGN channel over a range of Eb/No values for two sets of code block lengths and number of decoding iterations.
As the figure shows, the iterative decoding performance improves with an increase in the number of decoding iterations (at the expense of computational complexity) and larger block lengths (at the expense of decoding latency).
Variable-Sized Turbo Coding
The companion model commpcccvs.slx highlights turbo coding using variable-sized code-blocks within a simulation run.
The model is set up to run two user specified code-block lengths, which vary as per the selected control signal. The interleaver indices per block length and the noise variance are calculated per time step. Using the CRC syndrome detector, the model displays the code-block error rate in addition to the bit error rate, as the former is the more relevant performance metric with variable-sized code blocks.
CBER Performance
The following figure shows the code-block error rate performance of the parallel concatenated coding scheme in an AWGN channel over a range of Eb/No values for a similar set up as used for BER.
We observe similar improvements as before in performance with increase in the number of decoding iterations and/or block lengths.
Further Exploration
The example allows you to explore the effects of different block lengths and number of decoding iterations on the system performance. It supports all of the 188 code block sizes specified in [ 4 ] for a user-specified fixed number of decoding iterations.
Selected References
C. Berrou, A. Glavieux and P. Thitimajshima, "Near Shannon limit error correcting coding and decoding: turbo codes," Proc. IEEE® Int. Conf. on Communications, Geneva, Switzerland, May 1993, pp. 1064-1070.
Benedetto, S., G. Montorsi, D. Divsalar, and F. Pollara, "A Soft-Input Soft-Output Maximum A Posterior (MAP) Module to Decode Parallel and Serial Concatenated Codes," JPL TDA Progress Report, Vol. 42-127, Nov. 1996.
Schlegel, Christian B. and Lance C. Perez, "Trellis and Turbo Coding", IEEE Press, 2004.
3GPP TS 36.212 v10.8.0, "3rd Generation partnership project; Technical specification group radio access network; Evolved Universal Terrestrial Radio Access (E-UTRA); Multiplexing and channel coding (Release 10)", 2013-06.


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Facts About IRS Audits
With all of the chaos out there right now, the division and shouting, it's helpful to try to tune out the shouting and focus on what is actually in our sphere of productivity.
One way that the IRS has decided it can be more productive is by outsourcing their collections efforts.
So you know how you always hear that the IRS won't be contacting you by phone? Well, this year, that is all changing.
Included in a highway bill (of all things) was a little nugget that beginning in the spring of 2017, the IRS would contract with outside debt collection agencies to try to bring in more bacon to the IRS coffers. And they will be calling.
If you owe the IRS significant money, you may receive a letter in the mail that looks like this: https://www.irs.gov/pub/notices/cp40.pdf
Such notices are going out to a little over 300,000 taxpayers, and they include a special "Taxpayer Authentication Number", so that if you DO receive a phone call, you have a way to verify that it is a legit call and not one of the many scammers out there who go after those with tax debt.
[Learn more from the IRS here:
Of course, our job is to make all this baloney go away on your behalf — so if you owe the IRS over $10,000 … please do shoot me an email, and we can get started on fixing that problem for you, if we aren't already.
Or, perhaps you're dealing with an audit situation. Here are some thoughts about that…
David C. Zubler's
"IRS Problems" Strategy Note
Facts About IRS Audits
"Success is nothing more than a few simple disciplines, practiced every day." – Jim Rohn
It is common to feel like you are not getting a fair shake from an IRS auditor.
The auditor might seem unreasonable. It can feel like no matter what you do, the auditor cannot be satisfied. You are told you owe money to the IRS, and you know you don't.
There is good news — IRS auditors are not the end of the road.
Before the IRS can finalize an audit, they are required by law to give you rights to dispute it in federal Tax Court and with an IRS appeals officer.
Before the audit becomes final, the IRS must notify you of your rights to dispute it. This letter is called a "Notice of Deficiency." The Notice of Deficiency gives you a very important legal right – to take the IRS audit to Tax Court and have an independent judge review it.
You will have 90 days to file a "petition" to Tax Court after the IRS sends you the notice of deficiency. If the 90 days has already expired, you may qualify for audit reconsideration instead.
Before the IRS goes to trial, they will send your case to an IRS Appeals Officer for settlement. The IRS Appeals Officer's job is to settle the case based on how a judge would rule, not an auditor. IRS Appeals Officers have flexibility not always shown by IRS auditors. Most IRS examination cases settle this way, with results not available from an auditor's point of view.
Tax Court judges and IRS appeals officers perceive cases differently from IRS auditors. If you are right, you can testify to it – summarize to the appeals officer what you will tell the judge. If the IRS – in preparation for trial – sees that their auditor was being unreasonable, they will most likely make attempts to settle the case on the basis of how an independent judge would rule.
The auditor often has a small view of your case and does not consider how outsiders would decide it; that changes when the final decision is not that of the IRS, but is put in the hands of the Tax Court.
And in this case … well, it's helpful to have a pro on your side.
Give us a call today.
David C. Zubler


text:
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