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The assassination of leftist leader Chokri Belaid on February 6, apparently by Islamists, has brought into the open the long-simmering conflict that has pitted the ruling Islamist Ennahda Party against leftists, trade unionists, and secularists, who have staged the first general strike in 40 years and the largest street demonstrations since the 2011 revolution – Editors
February 6, a Day of Infamy
The cowardly assassination of Chokri Belaid has thrown Tunisia into its biggest crisis since the overthrow of the Ben Ali regime in 2011. Gunned down as he left his home on the morning of February 6, apparently by Islamist militants, Belaid was one of the country's most famous labor lawyers and leftist leaders. Known for having defended the Gafsa phosphate miners against state repression after their 2008 strike under the old regime, Belaid had been a prominent member of the secular left for decades. He was a lifelong Marxist who was a leading figure in the Popular Front, founded last summer as a potentially large grouping of leftist and secular forces. Having already served time under the old regime, Belaid was not intimidated by the death threats he constantly received from Islamists, with some imams openly calling for his assassination in their sermons.
Within hours of Belaid's death, crowds of youths gathered to protest in the center of Tunis outside the Interior (Police) Ministry, calling for the government to resign. The response was less verbal but more direct among the working classes. Demonstrators burned down the offices of the ruling Ennahda Party in working-class towns like Gafsa, Kef, and Sidi Bouzid. The latter was where the 2011 revolution began, after street vendor Mohamed Bouazizi burned himself to death to protest police harassment and economic oppression.
Ennahda's top leadership professes a moderate Islamism based upon tolerance and democracy, albeit in in overall conservative direction, in terms of both economics and culture. But leftists and secularists accuse it of playing a double game by tacitly supporting physical attacks on them by radical Islamists. According to the regime, these violent attacks stem from radical Salafists outside Ennahda, but leftists and secularists point out that arrests almost never follow these attacks, suggesting, at the very least, that Ennahda may be using the Salafists to do its dirty work, in an effort to marginalize its opponents. (One exception to this atmosphere of impunity occurred in the wake of the Salafist attack on the U.S. Embassy in September, when huge pressure came down on the government from imperial Washington, and about a hundred Salafists were arrested.) Belaid and some leftists have gone further, however, accusing the "Leagues for the Protection of the Revolution," a group associated with Ennahda, of actually perpetuating many of the attacks on and threats against secularists and leftists.
Ennahda itself seems to have undergone internal schisms in response Belaid's assassination, with Prime Minister Hamadi Jebali calling for all government ministers to resign and be replaced by politically neutral technocrats until the new constitution, still in progress, can be completed and ratified. Jebali seemed to be in a minority within Ennahda, however, most of whose leaders rejected his proposals. But with Ennahda controlling a plurality but not a majority of seats in the parliament, the outcome remains unclear.
February 8: Mourning and Commemorating the Life of Chokri Belaid
The protests and mourning over Belaid's assassination reached their peak on Friday, February 8, with a nationwide general strike and massive participation in the funeral procession in Tunis.
Tunisian workers, who knew Belaid as an old friend and supporter, turned out in huge numbers for the one-day general strike called by the General Union of Tunisian Workers (UGTT). The UGTT also announced that its general secretary, Hocine Abassi, had been receiving very specific death threats by telephone ever since the assassination of Belaid.
The strike shut down airports, schools, shops, trams, buses, and government offices. It constituted the greatest labor outpouring since the 1978 anti-austerity demonstrations, far more significant than the two-hour general strike called by the UGTT during the 2011 revolution.
On the streets of Tunis, over 50,000 people braved cold and rain to mourn Belaid. Chants included "Bread, water, but not Ennahda," or "Ghannouchi, assassin," a reference to Ennahda Secretary General Rachid Ghannouchi, and even, "The people want another revolution."
Crowds began to gather early in the morning at the funeral march's point of origin, the house of culture in Djebel Jelloud, the impoverished neighborhood in which Belaid grew up. The cortège was accompanied all along the way by mournful ululating chants by women, who attended in very large numbers. (The march also had an immense level of security protection from the military, with helicopters flying overhead. This was no small gesture on the part of a military command that, as in Egypt, is not very enamored of the Islamist movement. At the very least, it was a form of pressure on Ennahda to cede some of its control in favor of Jebali's proposal of a government of technocrats.) At the cemetery, youths from the nearby slums could not restrain themselves, and they began to throw stones at the police, who teargassed the entire crowd. Unwavering, the vast crowd stood its ground until the end of the ceremony.
In his funeral oration, Belaid's political comrade Hamma Hemmami issued a watchword for the future: "Tunisians, come together. The revolution continues."
Smaller but significant demonstrations also took place in Gafsa and Sidi Bouzid, where hundreds of marchers chanted "Assassins" and "Chokri you can rest, we will continue your struggle."
The next day, Ennahda members and Salafists held their own demonstration in Tunis, targeting France as the force behind the secularists and leftists who had marched the day before. "We do not accept this alliance of the left, of the old regime, and of France," declared one demonstrator. But their demonstration only attracted a few thousand.
Growing Tensions between Islamists and the Left
Two years after the 2011 Tunisian revolution, the economic crisis has deepened, with unemployment estimated at 18%, up from 13% in 2011, with the youth unemployment rate much higher. A deep class division has arisen between the Islamist leadership and the working classes and rural poor. As U.S. Middle East scholar Juan Cole wrote, "One reason the UGTT called the general strike is that the religious right ruling party, Ennahda, has since the revolution made a strong partnership with the private Tunisian business sector, and has been unsympathetic toward, and sometimes has repressed, workers' strikes and movements" ("Why Tunisia's Arab Spring Is in Turmoil," Informed Comment, Feb. 9, 2013 http://www.juancole.com/2013/02/tunisias-spring-turmoil.html
On the positive side, the developments since the revolution have begun to create new relationships between working people and intellectuals, both of which oppose the Islamist agenda.
In October 18, at Tatouine, demonstrators supporting Ennahda launched an attack on a meeting of the secular liberal Nida Tounès Party, resulting in the beating to death of Nida Tounès leader Lofti Naugedh. Afterwards, some Ennahda parliamentarians called for the release of those arrested from among the mob that attacked Naugedh. While Ennahda Secretary General Rachid Ghannouchi has adopted a relatively tolerant, democratic stance, at least in public, many were disturbed by a video of his private meeting with Salafists in October, in which he seemed to show them a surprising degree of sympathy. For his part, the old, more hardline former head of Ennahda, Sadok Chourou, did not mince words, calling for the corporal punishment of the secularists who clashed with the Islamists in Tatouine.
In November, riots sparked by poverty and despair broke out in Siliana, an agricultural town. Among the demands was the dismissal of the Ennahda provincial governor, with the powerful UGTT union federation taking the side of the protestors against the Ennahda government. Eventually the governor was dismissed after five days of clashes in which more than 300 people were injured.
In December, police had to separate Islamist and secularists as they staged separate demonstrations in Tunis to commemorate the 1952 assassination by forces linked to the French military of the prominent trade unionist and anti-colonialist leader Farhat Hached.
Over the past year, secular political figures, intellectuals, and cultural figures have faced mounting physical threats and attacks, including death threats, from Islamists.
One very recent example concerned Belaid himself. February 2, a meeting he organized in Kef was disrupted by Islamists, whom he publicly accused of being members of the Ennahda-linked Leagues for the Protection of the Revolution. This was Belaid's last public utterance before his assassination.
Chokri Belaid: A Revolutionary Son of Tunisia
Chokri Belaid's personal history exemplifies that of a whole generation of Tunisian revolutionaries. Born in 1964 in Tunis's impoverished Djebel Jelloud neighborhood, by the 1980s Belaid had garnered attention as a student leader and orator, with Marxist and Pan-Arabist leanings. In 1987, he was imprisoned for six months. For many years, he was associated with an underground Marxist-Leninist party, the Tunisian Communist Workers Party, which attained legal status only after the 2011 revolution. The group has since gone through some major changes.
In 2008, when the mass strikes broke out in the Gafsa phosphate mines, a struggle given little attention by the semi-official UGTT, Belaid was there, leading the group of lawyers who defended the workers against the terrible repression from the Ben Ali regime that followed. Today, these strikes are widely considered to have been the harbinger of the 2011 revolution.
During the 2011 revolution itself, Belaid was in the midst of everything, alongside his political comrade Hamma Hemmami, today the best-known surviving leader of the Popular Front. Critical of both the liberal democrats and the Islamists, Belaid gained many enemies, but also a great deal of popular respect for his eloquence and his courage. A frequent guest on various television programs, Belaid was unsparing in his attacks on the reactionary wing of Ennahda, which he blamed for the atmosphere of violence and intimidation experienced by secularists and leftists. This earned him outright threats from militant Islamist preachers and on dozens of Facebook pages, as well as veiled threats from Minister of the Interior Ali Areed, an Ennahda member, who publicly blamed Belaid for the violence at Siliana. Videos in which radical Islamists called for Belaid to be killed have also been circulating for many months.
Hope for the Future
As in Egypt in recent months, if not more so, the split between the secular and leftist forces and the Islamists in Tunisia is by now irrevocable. As in Egypt as well, it is the secular and leftist forces that seem to be gaining strength of late, as the Islamists in power since the 2011 revolution have disillusioned many of those who supported them or who at least saw them as better than the old regime and thought they should be given a chance at state power. In Tunisia, however, labor and the organized left are much stronger than in Egypt, as are secular trends among the population as a whole. This suggests that the tragedy of Belaid's assassination could in the end lead to some new openings for the kind of politics for which he gave his life. If that is the case, will Tunisia again, as in 2011, be the bellwether of the Arab revolutions as a whole?
Kevin Anderson is the author of Marx at the Margins: On Nationalism, Ethnicity, and Non-Western Societies.


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Calling all race fans: Don't miss the live chat, "Andretti Live & Global" on Ortsbo, powered by Windows Azure, with three generations of the legendary Andretti racing family – Mario, Michael and Marco – Saturday, August 27, 2011 at 9:00 am PT. During the live chat, fueled by Ortsbo's Live & Global platform, the Andretti racing family will chat live with racing fans and media around the world in up to 53 languages.
A division of Intertainment Media, Ortsbo allows users around the world to communicate with family, friends and colleagues by enabling them to break down language and cultural barriers through an easy to use, language-centric interface.
Ortsbo's new HTML alpha platform offers users the ability to connect to Facebook, MSN and Google Talk; other social networks will be added quickly. The HTML version of Ortsbo, combined with the power of Windows Azure, allows both commercial and consumer use of Ortsbo without the need to download a plug-in, facilitating real time translated chat for virtually all worldwide browser-enabled devices.
Presented by Andretti Autosport, together with INDYCAR and Ortsbo, the chat will be broadcast live to fans around the world from Infineon Raceway in Sonoma, Calif., which was the site of Marco Andretti's first win.
Learn more and register.

subset: commoncrawl


text: America Forward, a network of over 70 of America's most innovative and results-oriented organizations, today released Moving America Forward: Innovators Lead the Way to Unlocking America's Potential, a new Presidential briefing book. Moving America Forward contains fresh and disruptive ideas for policymakers and the current slate of presidential candidates who aspire to unlock the potential of all Americans. The announcement


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Info: This plug-in is part of a set of sample plug-ins that is shipped with Elvis Server. For more information, see Elvis 5 sample plug-ins.
The FTP import plug-in imports files into Elvis from an FTP server. It checks for new files in a configured remote folder, imports them and then deletes the imported files from the remote folder. Any subfolder structure within the remote folder is mirrored within Elvis.
Note: This bundled plug-in is a sample. It only supports a limited set of FTP servers. For production use, we advise other solutions like Enfocus PowerSwitch which also supports importing files into Elvis using FTP.
The FTP import plug-in can be almost completely configured inside the plug-in configuration file, all configuration properties are described in detail in this file.
Automatically fill metadata fields on import
It's optionally possible to automatically assign standard metadata values to imported files. You can define these values in the <ftp_import>/field-mappings.xml file.
How it works
Once you have set up the FTP server in the configuration, Elvis will periodically scan the remote folder for new content. Every time new items are found in the folder the importer will start processing all items found in that folder.


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"The Rising" and "Custodia Mortis"
by Peter aka Baphomet
Just wanted to show you my new miniatures :) I finished them during the MassiveVoodoo-Bootcamp at Raffa´s place the last two weeks. I entered them at the Duke of Bavaria-Contest and won Gold in Fantasy Standard Painting. I Hope you like them. I want to thank the whole monkey crew for the advises and support, but especially Roman and Raffa for their efforts and paintence ;)
Well, there have been two days without painting and I get crazy by this situation. So I will start a beautiful miniature made by JMD tonight. My next posting will be a "Minature unpacked" and some WiP-pictures ;)
Best wishes,


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Our team keeps track of the latest trends in the industry, ensuring compliance with Google.
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Austin Carpet Cleaning is a dedicated carpet cleaning service provider serving Austin Texas. We offer expert carpet and upholstery cleaning services, as well as air duct cleaning. Our technicians are trained to give our customers the cleanest, most courteous cleaning service in town. Your carpets and rugs are in good hands with us.
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Welcome to Blow: where the most important person in the world is you.
At Blow we have over 20 years experience of hair styling and use only the highest quality products.
Whether you want a new style and colour or a simple cut, we will tailor your hair cut to suit you and your lifestyle. With our studios extensive range of Paul Mitchell products, we will show you how to keep your hair looking good once you've left the salon.
We know you'll leave Blow feeling fabulous. So, why not book an appointment at our Hebden Bridge studio today and discover for yourself why our clients keep on returning?
Hope to see you soon


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Pediatric dentistry
Home > Dental Services > Pediatric Dentistry
Our experienced doctor and staff can accommodate the unique needs of every patient, regardless of age or dental care needs. To our nitrous oxide sedation services for particularly anxious patients, we are thoroughly equipped and experienced in creating a relaxing, fear-free visit for your child.
Children's dentistry
The American Academy of Pediatric Dentistry recommends that children have their first dental visit by their first birthday or their first tooth, whichever comes first!
Baby teeth are very important in a child's early physical, social, and psychological development; they help your baby chew, speak and smile! And though they eventually fall out, baby teeth are very important place-holders for a child's developing and permanent adult teeth.
It is also important to establish a dental home for children early on so that they do not foster dental anxiety and, most importantly, so that they learn to develop good oral habits for decades to come.


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It can happen to anyone, anytime. The washer overflows, the dryer doesn't dry or -gasp- the fridge stops cooling. Many common household appliance problems can be avoided by following some basic maintenance routines. Regular maintenance will prevent prevent breakdowns, saving you money on costly repairs, or even higher insurance costs if you have water damage.
Here are some common household appliance maintenance tips and the cost comparisons for maintenance, use and damage :
1. Clothes dryer
Even if you clean your clothes dryer's lint trap with each load, a surprising amount of lint makes it past the trap. Clogged air vents and ductwork not only lead to dryer inefficiency, and an estimated $300 additional to operate yearly, but could also spark a fire. Each year dryers cause some 12,700 residential fires, 15 deaths and 300 injuries, according to a 2007 report by the U.S. Fire Administration. In 70 percent of the cases, "failure to clean" was the leading cause. Second-floor laundry facilities pose another risk: The USFA calls these locations "hazardous" because they often require longer ductwork, with bends that could trap lint, rather than immediate outside venting. Improper ducting made of light foil or plastic can also ignite more readily and should be replaced by semi-rigid or rigid aluminum, or galvanized steel ducting.
Top tips:
* Once a month use your vacuum cleaner's fine nozzle to suction the lint slot.
* Once a year unplug the dryer, disconnect the vent tube and vacuum it out.
* If your dryer doesn't vent directly outside, consider hiring a professional duct cleaner.
Maintenance cost:
* Dryer vent cleaning kits: $20
* Professional duct cleaner: $75 to $200
* New ducting: $15
Average cost of home dryer fires:
* $9,176
2. Washing machine
Today's high-efficiency front-loading washing machines are gentler on clothes, but complex mechanical and electrical components make them tougher on your wallet when something goes wrong. With estimates from $450 to $600 to repair a broken drum, it may be more cost-effective to buy a new washer.
But the biggest disaster with any washing machine is flooding from a burst water hose, which can release 650 gallons of water per hour. Burst hoses top PEMCO's list of homeowner's insurance claims, resulting in an average $4,000 to $6,000 in damages. "If the owner is home and they catch the leak within an hour, it's usually on the low end," says PEMCO spokesman Jon Osterberg. "The bad-case scenario is if they're on vacation. In some of the higher end homes with second-floor laundry facilities, you can reach $100,000 in damages."
Top tips:
* To keep the drum spinning smoothly for years to come, for starters, use only high-efficiency, or HE, detergent. "The suds that are created by nonhigh-efficiency detergents will get in and wreak havoc on the drum and drive system," says Dave Chowanec, Sears product category engineer for laundry products.
* Once a month, run an empty hot water wash to break down any built up residue.
* Excessive vibration can also damage the drum. If you hear or see the machine shake, it's unbalanced. Check for level, but more importantly, check the machine's stability by rocking it from corner to corner. "All four legs should be firmly touching the ground and locked according to the use manual," says Chowanec.
* Once a month, check your washing machine hoses for bulges or tears, especially at connection points where kinks can form and crack. Manufacturers suggest replacing hoses every three to five years, regardless of wear. It's no more complicated than attaching a garden hose. Steel braided "no-burst" hoses can also fail, and because of the meshing, tiny tears may be more difficult to catch. When not in use, turn off the water valves leading to your machine. For ultimate peace of mind, install an automatic water valve shut off system activated when it senses an excessive surge in water pressure.
Maintenance cost:
* Carpenter's level: $15
* New hoses: $10 to $20
* Automatic shut off system: $130 to $200
Cost of Energy Star-rated front-end loader:
* $620 to $1,850
3. Sump pumps
Sump pumps usually protect your basement from flooding, but they can fail unexpectedly. Homeowners insurance usually doesn't cover damages from sump-pump overflow. Sump pumps often vibrate when they run, so the float mechanism can get stuck.
"This will either make it run all the time or it won't run at all," says Ray VinZant, the expert behind Roto-Rooter's "Ask the Plumber."
"The float has to be able to rise up when the water level rises. If it doesn't, the pump won't come on."
Because sump pumps drain ground water and sediment, clogged intake screens and discharge pipes also contribute to their failure. While battery backups offer a measure of protection if your primary pump fails or if there's a power outage, they aren't foolproof. Most backups last five to seven years. An old battery might only run three hours in an outage, instead of the stated six.
Top tips:
* Once a year, pour a gallon of distilled white vinegar into the basin to break down calcium deposits on the expeller and pump.
* Unplug the pump and remove any material clogging the intake screen.
* Check the float switch operation: Pour enough water to turn the pump on and make sure it drains. "If you hear a grinding noise, the pump may be on its last legs," says VinZant.
Maintenance cost:
* Gallon of vinegar: $2
* For a six-hour battery backup: $100 to $150
* For a high-end 7.5 hour sump pump system that includes a low-battery alarm: $475
4. Water heater
An old or corroded water heater can cause substantial damage. "Don't forget you have a water heater," says Randy Schuyler, who operates WaterHeaterRescue.com.
"Some day you'll hear the water running when you know nobody is using any and you'll find a major flood in some part of your house that wasn't meant to be a wading pool."
Sold with six- or 12-year warranties, PEMCO Insurance suggests replacing your tank every 10 years. Roto-Rooter caps the useful life at 15 years. Look at the first four digits on the heater's serial number to find the month and year of manufacture.
Several factors lead to tank corrosion. Water sediment at the bottom of the tank builds up if not drained properly. Tanks also have something called a sacrificial anode rod, or rods, made of aluminum or magnesium-coated steel, that water eats away first instead of your tank's inner walls. When these rods wear out, water begins to corrode your tank from the inside out.
Top tips:
* Because natural gas, water and electrical components are involved, be sure to take necessary safety precautions in maintaining your hot water heater.
* To extend a tank's longevity keep the floor around the heater clean. "Some newer models are especially prone to dust, and may just stop working if their filters get clogged," says Schuyler.
* Once a year check your water pressure. "Anything over 80 psi can wreck water heaters, other appliances and piping," he says.
* Test the temperature/pressure relief valve by pulling up on the handle. "Replace it if it does nothing, or runs, dribbles or drips when the handle closes," says Schuyler. "Under rare conditions, water heaters blow up. When they do, they may take walls, the roof and their owners with them."
* "If there's clearance above your tank, every few years, check the tank's anode rod." Schuyler says the single most important factor in whether a water heater lives or dies is the condition of its sacrificial anode. "For more than 60 years, it has been used as a key part of the rust protection of a tank, although few people know it's there," he says. The rod is made of magnesium or aluminum and screws into the top of your tank. Look for a hexagonal head — often covered by a plastic cap. "Replace it when six inches of core wire shows," says Schuyler. If you have a water softener, check the rod annually. "Softeners can eat anodes in as little as six months."
* To effectively remove sediment, Schuyler suggests expelling it under pressure by using a ball valve drain assembly and curved dip tube.
Maintenance cost:
* New anode and sediment removal kit: $80
Cost of an Energy Star-rated water tank:
* $500 to $600, not including installation
5. Air conditioning
Often a major expense, heating, ventilation and air conditioning, or HVAC, systems require yearly professional inspections and adjustments to ensure proper operation. Just a 10 percent leak in refrigerant could result in a 20 percent decrease in efficiency. Homeowners may save up to 50 percent in energy costs with proper HVAC maintenance, according to the Air Conditioning Contractors of America.
Top tips:
* Between spring and fall servicing, homeowners should replace their HVAC filters once a month. Change "three-month" filters just as frequently if your home is excessively dusty or you have shedding pets. Clean filters result in a 5 percent to 15 percent reduction in energy consumption, according to the U.S. Department of Energy.
* To ensure the outside condenser unit has necessary airflow, keep it clear of debris and cut back foliage by at least two feet. Because evaporator and condenser coil fins can easily bend, forcing your system to work harder, comb them back into shape using a special fin comb, available through parts wholesalers.
Maintenance cost:
* Filters: $10 to $20 per filter
* Fin comb: $12
* Routine HVAC servicing: as low as $25
Cost of a high-efficiency HVAC system:
* Prices vary greatly depending on size, location of the unit, added ductwork and air handler, but can range from a few thousand to well over $15,000.
6. Refrigerator
Several factors can lead to refrigerator poor performance: Excessive dust and dirt can clog the condenser coils forcing the coolant to work harder; an unleveled refrigerator can knock the doors out of alignment, causing cold air and energy to escape, and a dirty door gasket can break the tight seal necessary to maintain your refrigerator's efficiency. In refrigerators with water dispensers, a clogged filter can stop the automatic icemaker from working and produce discolored water.
Top tips:
* Twice a year pull out your refrigerator, unplug it and vacuum the coils located either in the front or back, more often if you have shedding pets. If possible, allow a 2-inch space around the top and sides to let the coils breathe.
* Make sure to check for level after maintenance.
* Clean the door gaskets with soap and water and check the seal. "The gasket should last the life of the refrigerator, but if it becomes warped or damaged replace it," says Neil Pellicci, Sears engineering manager for refrigeration products.
* Replace the water filter every six months, (more often if you have hard water) or when the indicator light comes on.
Maintenance cost:
* New door gasket: $45 to $55, not including installation
* Water filter: $17 to $45, depending on make and model
Cost of an Energy Star-rated refrigerator:
* $500 for basic top-freezer to $3,000 for high-end side-by-side, not including installation
Routine recap
To help you keep track of these maintenance items, cut and save this schedule:
* Vacuum clothes dryer lint slot.
* Check washing machine hoses for wear and tear.
* Run an empty hot water cycle in front-end loader.
* Replace HVAC filters.
* Clean the floor around your water heater.
* Have HVAC system professionally serviced (in spring for air conditioner, fall for furnace).
* Replace refrigerator water filters.
* Clean refrigerator door gaskets.
* Vacuum refrigerator condenser coils (more frequently if you have shedding pets).
* Clean out clothes dryer vent and ductwork.
* Check washing machine for level and stability.
* Clean sump pump basin and intake screen.
* Flush deposit build up in sump pump basin with white vinegar.
* Check sump pump float and operation.
* Check water heater anode rod and temperature/pressure valve.
* Check your home's water pressure.
* Drain sediment from water heater.


text:
In my last post for 2010, I want not only to send my very warmest wishes to my readers for the year ahead, but also to express my thanks for the way in which your kindness and encouragement, manifested in a variety of forms, has helped to carry me through twelve months that have sometimes been more than usually challenging. I am truly grateful.
I also wanted to reflect on some of the good things that have happened this past year. On the writing front, I was thrilled by the response to and reviews of The Serpent Pool, and to have two launches in Hawarden and London, the latter a joint event with Ann Cleeves, was very gratifying. I enjoyed putting together the anthology Original Sins and an excellent press lunch organised by the publishers at a posh restaurant in London. And I'm really pleased about The Hanging Wood – I like to think it is the best Lake District Mystery so far. My trip to the Lakes on my birthday was a real highlight of 2010 - the wonderful weather of July seems a very distant memory now!
Crimefest in Bristol was great fun, including a pub quiz in a team of delightful people and the ordeal that calls itself Criminal Mastermind! I now have two lovely inscribed commemorative pieces of Bristol glassware to remember the last two years' quizzes by; in 2011, I shall be very glad to be in the audience, instead of in the black chair. I met a good many pleasant writers and readers (including readers of this blog) for the first time in 2010, not least at Crimefest, and hope to see at least some of them again next year.
The CWA conference in Abergavenny was great - one of the photos shows my Saturday dinner companion Janet Laurence, and another shows a gathering of crime writers at Abergavenny Castle. For various reasons, I couldn't manage a trip to a US convention this year. However, I paid a fleeting – but very pleasurable – visit to the Harrogate Crime Festival, and missed out on the St Hilda's Conference in Oxford last August for the best of reasons: a cruise in the sun around the magnificent Baltic capitals. But I shall be one of the speakers at St Hilda's next August. I'm looking forward to it already. And next October may – exam results permitting – see both junior Edwardses studying at Oxford, which would be lovely if it happens.
I've given a number of talks, and put on my Victorian murder mystery event a couple of times. And I've read a lot of good books, some old, some new, and most of them (as well as most of the films I've watched) have featured on this blog. Although I've cut down on the number of posts, I'm very glad that the blog continues to be visited very regularly. Above all, I've had the good fortune of much support from friends and family, and many reasons to reflect that the crime writing community really does contain some truly delightful people.
So, all in all, a year with plenty of ups as well as a few downs. But I'm certainly looking forward to 2011 with relish....
Friday 31 December 2010
New Year's Eve
Wednesday 29 December 2010
And Then There Were None - review
I enjoyed Rene Clair's 1945 film version of my favourite Agatha Christie novel, And Then There Were None. The screenplay, by Dudley Nichols – who had previously been the first person to refuse an Oscar – was sound, despite a number of changes from the original.
The set-up is an absolute classic – eight people, along with two staff, are invited to a lonely island by a mysterious stranger. A disembodied gramophone recording accuses those present of having each been guilty of murder. And then, one by one, the guests themselves are murdered...
Apparently, some of the script changes were to fit with the Hays Code of morals on screen that was in force at the time. Christie's story included a child murder committed by one of the guest, and such a crime was deemed beyond the pale. This plot point is an instance, by the way, of Christie's work sometimes being darker than her critics tend to allow.
The big cop-out is the ending, which is much less sinister than the brilliant original (even if the original does require a lengthy written confession, a sign of structural weakness in most detective stories, but not here). However, I thought Clair and his cast did a pretty good job on the film and I was glad to catch up with it at long last. My third 'Christie for Christmas'!
Monday 27 December 2010
Agatha Christie's Marple: The Secret of Chimneys - review
Agatha Christie's Marple this evening gave us The Secret of Chimneys, from a book which dates back to 1925. Jane Marple does not appear in the book, and frankly the story – a cheerfully ludicrous thriller – would be long forgotten if Christie were not the author. I felt compelled to watch, though, to see what the scriptwriter, Paul Rutman – a capable and experienced TV detective drama writer - would make of a very tough challenge.
His approach was to take a few small plot elements and a number of characters (or, at least, their names) from the original but to create an entirely new story, with the scene being set in 1932 before moving into the 1950s, with Miss Marple, in the shape of Julia Mackenzie, improbably invited to Chimneys along with an exotic foreign aristocrat and a woman from 'National Heritage'.
The cast was good, including the reliable Edward Fox, the beautiful Charlotte Salt and the talented Dervla Kirwan. But the story-line was risible and Christie probably turned in her grave at the identity and motive of the culprit. I was certainly amazed, but not in a good way.
I was left wondering what was the object of the exercise. I could see the point of the new TV version of Murder on the Orient Express, even though I've read some comments by purists who disapprove of the changes made to the original, because the focus on justice was – to me – genuinely interesting. But with The Secret of Chimneys, a silly but mildly amusing book from the 1920s just became a silly TV show of 2010. Disappointing, to say the least.
Christmas in Cheshire
Sunday 26 December 2010
New books in 2011
I'm looking forward rather eagerly to a number of publications next year. When I first became a published author, I got a real kick out of seeing my manuscript turned into a 'proper book', and I've not lost the thrill of the experience, thank goodness. It really is exhilarating. The Serpent Pool appears in paperback in the UK early in January, and given the extensive and favourable reviews of the hardback edition, I'm hoping that reaction will again be very positive.
The Hanging Wood will appear, at least in the US, under the Poisoned Press imprint. I'm not yet sure what is likely to happen in the UK. Around the same time, my German publishers will bring out The Serpent Pool. Here is the proposed cover. The title, in translation, is 'To Dust and Ashes'.
Take My Breath Away will be published by Five Star in the US in June, and although the book was written eight years ago, I'm absolutely delighted it's having a fresh life. Of all my novels, it's the one which I think was the most under-rated. Of course, it may be that authors are not the best judges of their own work. But even so...
On the anthology front, there should be a limited collectors' edition of the CWA anthology, Original Sins. And the follow up to that collection, Guilty Consciences, may be out in May. I hope so, as it would mean we could launch it at Crimefest. But there's still some work to be done before we can know for sure....
Agatha Christie's Poirot: Murder on the Orient Express - review
Murder on the Orient Express, starring David Suchet, the latest Agatha Christie's Poirot to hit the TV screen, was my choice for Christmas Day viewing. And I'm glad I watched it, since it was one of the best of all the screen versions of any Christie story. Better, certainly, than the film version of the book starring Albert Finney as Poirot, even though the film is not at all bad.
Why was this version so good? The answer lies in the focus on the precise nature of the motive for the crime and the proper response to it. I guess that most readers of this blog are familiar with the central gimmick, but I'm not going to give it away. However, the key theme of the book – as with And Then There Were None – is the idea of doing justice, and in particular the doing of justice in circumstances where conventional legal systems fail to achieve the 'right' result.
This is a powerful, perhaps eternal, issue, one that is apt to crop up in all societies, at all times. And Christie's willingness to take on such issues, in the context of an elaborately and innovatively plotted classic detective story, is one of the reasons for her enduring success. The screenplay homed in on Poirot's battle with his conscience, and I thought that Suchet's performance was superb.
The supporting cast, including Eileen Atkins and David Morrissey, was very strong without being over-burdened by star names. The script by Stewart Harcourt was first class, creating a consistently sinister atmosphere. Anyone expecting an entirely cosy experience from watching this version will have been surprised. But also, I hope, impressed.
Friday 24 December 2010
As Christmas approaches - and as you can see from the photo, it's a white Christmas here in Lymmm, can I sent my very best wishes to all of you who read this blog. Have a great time!
The TV schedules look promising. But how can I choose at 9 pm between Murder on the Orient Express – the new version with David Suchet – and the classic And Then There Were None, which is my all-time favourite Christie? We'll see!
I do plan to review the new Poirot soon in any event. And maybe the older film too, while I'm at it...
Forgotten Book - A Private Inquiry
My recent Jessica Mann reading binge has continued with A Private Inquiry, first published in 1996. This came twenty years after The Eighth Deadly Sin, which I discussed here recently, and the story is very different – but there are two elements which are similar.
The first is the way Mann shifts viewpoints. In the early stages of the book, she does so to almost bewildering effect. We begin with a planning inquiry, overseen by Barbara Pomeroy, and it seems as though this will be her story. But then the focus shifts to one of the inquiry witnesses, Fidelis, with off-shoots involving her new young assistant Sophie, Barbara's family life, and the dodgy entrepreneur whose planning application is under consideration in the opening pages. It's a clever and unorthodox technique, which has the effect that you don't really know what the book is 'about' in terms of the central mystery, for quite some time.
The second is the focus on women characters and the issue that concern them. We start with Barbara and her career, and before long her family life – which involves an impotent husband who takes a keen interest in a mysterious neighbour, and a child who has recovered from serious illness – becomes significant. Fidelis, who has had a double mastectomy, is a fascinating and complex character, who finds herself strangely attracted to, and envious of, young Sophie. Sophie herself is an intriguing character, a biker with an interest in psychology. And finally there is Buffy, the wife of the entrepreneur, who has gone missing in rather odd circumstances.
All these ingredients are mixed with subtle skill. I guessed some elements of the plot, but by no means all of it, despite the fact that the clues are fairly supplied, and for me, the suspense became truly gripping in the latter part of the story, as I began to realise the nature of the puzzle. An unusual and satisfying book, which unquestionably deserves to be better known.
Wednesday 22 December 2010
Nordic Noir
Nordic Noir was an interesting BBC 4 documentary about Scandinavian crime fiction. As regular readers will know, I have quite a long-standing enthusiasm for a number of Scandinavian crime writers – as well as for their countries, which I've visited occasionally, and this was a worthwhile assessment with the added bonus of shots of fascinating towns, cities and landscapes (the photo is Stockholm, a city I really liked on my first visit this year.)
Inevitably, the main focus was on Stieg Larsson, but there was also discussion of a range of other writers, including Karin Fossum, Jo Nesbo, Henning Mankell, Sjowall and Wahloo – and Arnaldur Indridason, whose native Iceland is one country I haven't visited and which is high on my to-be-travelled-to list.
And there was mention, too, of Miss Smilla's Feeling for Snow, by Peter Hoeg, which some might call a 'literary' crime novel, and certainly a book which is memorable, especially perhaps for its early scenes. No mention,though, of Gunnar Staalesen, whom I discussed here a little while back.
The talking heads included the crime fiction commentator Barry Forshaw, and novelists Val McDermid and Hakan Nesser. The witty and amiable Nesser made the point that there are fashions in crime fiction as in other areas of life, and that one of these days, attention will shift elsewhere. Another interesting comment was that younger writers may be more interested in global issues than in exploring localised societies – I'm not sure whether I agree with this broad generalisation, but it certainly got me thinking.
Monday 20 December 2010
Autobiographical crime fiction
'Write what you know' is a tired – and unnecessarily limiting - cliché of advice for budding writers, but like most clichés, it contains an element of common sense. However, the nature of fiction is that it is an imaginative form, and so to my mind, there is a limit to 'writing what you know' – because it's good to escape from what you know, and to explore things you don't really know at all. To take an obvious example, I'm fascinated by writing about murder, and motivations for murder. But I've never murdered anybody, and I don't plan to. Honest.
Having said all that, it would be silly to deny that sometimes there is an element of autobiography in fiction, and this can sometimes creep in quite unintentionally. This is a point which Jessica Mann made when responding to my enthusiastic post about her book The Eighth Deadly Sin. A writer will often take elements from their own life and use them in fiction – but perhaps subtly, or dramatically, changed.
There is a great temptation, when reading a novel, to seek clues to the author's personal life and thoughts. And sometimes the clues are fascinating. But this kind of amateur detective work is often liable to result in one jumping to the wrong conclusions. It's fun to do, sometimes, but not to be taken too seriously.
With my own books, Harry Devlin shares a number of characteristics with me. He's a lawyer based in Liverpool, who likes soccer, cricket, films and 60s pop music. But I never wanted him to be a portrayal of myself, so I wove in plenty of stuff that he and I do not share. For instance, he gets involved with criminal and divorce work, and I'd hate to do so. He also lives less in his imagination than I do, and as a result, he's a lot braver than me. But I've never seen this as wish fulfilment – I created a life for him that I really would never want to have for myself!
With Daniel Kind, it's different. He and I both come from the north of England, and went to Oxford, but otherwise our lives are dissimilar in countless respects. Sometimes the differences - as well as similarities, are written into the character without pre-planning. I still can't understand why he got hooked up with people like Aimee and Miranda, and judging from emails I receive, nor can many of my readers!
Strangely enough, I've become more fascinated by Hannah Scarlett than by Daniel in recent years. I love exploring her life and psychology. The way women think is something else that fascinates me, even though sometimes it perplexes me. And I've written short stories from the perspective of historical characters, an American, and a gay politician. I'm just intensely curious about other people's lives, and on the whole, fiction appeals to me much more as a means of exploring other lives than of presenting an autobiographical picture of myself.
Saturday 18 December 2010
Forgotten Book - No Friendly Drop
My latest choice for a Forgotten Book is No Friendly Drop, by Henry Wade, which dates back to 1931. When I read the first chapter, I feared the book might be a big disappointment. There was quite a bit of seemingly aimless chit-chat between the landed gentry – Lord and Lady Grayle, of a decaying great house called Tassart, and their son and daughter-in-law. But before long, my interest quickened and it became clear that Wade had planted important clues in that first chapter.
Lord Grayle dies, in mysterious circumstances, of an odd combination of poisons. The local police call in Scotland Yard, and Wade's regular cop, Inspector John Poole, is sent to investigate. Poole is nicely characterised – young, intelligent if sometimes fallible, keen and likeable, a much more rounded figure than, say, Freeman Wills Crofts' Inspector French. Even the minor characters are nicely done – I rather enjoyed the idea of an aged solicitor 'who had never used a telephone in his life'. And I liked Wade's wry reflection, when Poole thinks that a woman of 55 might not be driven by passion, that 'Poole did not yet know everything about life'!
In fact, the story is cunningly designed, and the book held my interest even though it is quite lengthy. Wade (real name Sir Henry Lancelot Aubrey-Fletcher, 6th baronet) was a wealthy man, and you get the feeling that he really did know his way around grand country houses – more so than colleagues who simply used them as a convenient setting for a murder mystery. His instincts were conservative – punitive taxation gets a critical mention here, as in other of his books – but He is very good at dealing with the politics of relations between different branches of the police, and Poole delves much deeper into motive than, say, French. In fact, a puzzle about motive is at the heart of the book. Poole's humanity is such that, at the end, 'though it was impossible not to feel horror at the callous cruelty that had destroyed two human lives, it was also difficult not to feel some sympathetic understanding of the provocation that had led to it.'
All in all, a good book. Not a match for the best of Christie, but readable and intelligent. I am definitely a member of Henry Wade's fan club.
Friday 17 December 2010
Forgotten Book - The Crime at Diana's Pool
Canon Victor Alonzo Whitechurch was a founder member of the Detection Club, and a book he wrote in 1926 is my latest choice as a Forgotten Book. It is The Crime at Diana's Pool, and is one of his six crime novels – he also wrote some good short stories with railway settings, several of which feature Thorpe Hazell, a sleuth who memorably combines vegetarianism with health faddishness and an enthusiasm for rail travel.
This is a book with a classic country house setting. A garden party ends in the murder of the host, Felix Nayland, and the obvious suspect is a mysterious chap – foreign and needless to say, bearded – who cons his way into the band that had been hired to entertain the guests. One of those guests was Harry Westerham, a likeable cleric who does some of the detective work, along with the industrious Sergeant Ringwood.
Whitechurch makes the point in a preface that he had no idea of the solution to his mystery when he wrote the first chapter. I have to say that I figured out the culprit at an early stage, but it's a tribute to the author's light and agreeable style that he kept me interested despite this.
My copy is, in fact, not a musty volume dug out of a second hand stall, but a brand new, nicely produced paperback published by Ostara, a Cambridge-based print-on-demand outfit who have brought back a number of obscure titles – college and clerical crime as well as some good thrillers – and have also reprinted some nice books by splendid modern authors such as Keith Miles and Kate Charles. I am a fan of Ostara, and encourage others to support their enterprise.
Thursday 16 December 2010
Revising a Manuscript
I raised the question a while back as to when you can draw the line with a book, and send it off to a publisher. But of course, there is a question that needs to be dealt with earlier – how much time and effort should I devote to revising?
The short answer, alas, is usually 'a lot, and rather more than you would have hoped'. I readily confess that I need – always – to do a lot of revising. Take My Breath Away remains the book that I revised most heavily – cutting it from 150,000 words to 85,000 in the process. I still feel a bit faint when I remember that agonising process...
How to go about revising? Well, there is no all-encompassing answer – there are various possible approaches. I think it is easier to cut than to expand. If a story is wordy, it can be trimmed. But if it's anorexic, it may require significant additional plotting and development, which is harder to achieve. I don't worry too much if my initial writing is a bit wordy, but I do try to remedy this at re-write time.
There are other things to do, as well. Ensuring consistency of theme and mood is often important. So is eliminating inconsistencies of style, and repetitions. But I don't, personally, find revision too boring (unlike proof checking, which is incredibly tedious). It offers a chance to make a book much better. And I am firmly of the view that a few relatively limited changes can often make a disproportionately significant difference to the quality of a book.
Authors who skimp on revision do so at their peril. Many years ago, I met a writer who announced she never revised. I felt this was a mistake. And it may not be a coincidence that she has more or less disappeared from sight since then. A pity, since she was a nice person and a good writer. But even a good book can be improved by revision.
Monday 13 December 2010
The Eighth Deadly Sin
Jessica Mann is a British writer I've mentioned several times on this blog, and I'm surprised her work is not more widely discussed, as she has produced a number of very well-written novels over a long period. I've just read one that dates back to 1976, The Eighth Deadly Sin.
The set-up is intriguing. A sleazy lawyer (yes, believe it or not, they do exist!) meets an attractive woman at a party and they begin an affair. But she conceals her true identity from him. Gradually, his lust turns to love, but she doesn't reciprocate. When he runs into significant financial trouble, he wants to turn to her for help. Trouble is, she has vanished, and his attempts to trace her run into a brick wall.
Then the viewpoint switches, and we start to see things from the woman's perspective. And it becomes clear that Mann's real preoccupation is not so much to do with the mystery of who the woman is, but the question of how she can escape from what stifles her in her everyday life. The rather unappealing and unfortunate lawyer fades increasingly into the background even though he remains, in a sense, pivotal to the plot.
There are crimes, a mystery, and ultimately a murder and a trial in this story, yet it is far removed from a conventional crime novel. If you are interested in the way women think and behave - and who is not? - I'd say that you are likely to find this unusual book worth tracking down. There aren't too many fireworks, but the story-line does provoke thought.
Friday 10 December 2010
Forgotten Book - Big Business Murder
There is a good deal of period interest in Big Business Murder, by G.D.H. and M. Cole, my latest entry in Patti Abbott's series of Forgotten Books. It was first published in 1935, when the husband and wife co-authors enjoyed a considerable reputation for their detective stories as well as in their capacity as leading socialist thinkers. Three years earlier, George Cole had published a book called The Intelligent Man's Guide Through World Chaos (sadly, I've never seen a copy – perhaps the intelligent men all kept hold of theirs) and he was also a prominent economist, as well as a mentor of the future Prime Minister, Harold Wilson.
The novel begins with a gripping scene, at a board meeting of Arrow Investments. Kingsley Manson, the managing director, reveals to his colleagues that the business is founded on a swindle, which seems likely to unravel unless they all support his attempts to solve the problem. An honest director called Gathorne objects, but the others go along with Manson. After the financial dramas of 2008, some of the Coles' points struck a surprisingly modern note, I felt. There is a timelessness about greedy, vain or naive people who think that business is all boom, and never bust. The scene was set for a great book.
Gathorne, predictably, is murdered, but after this the story rather falls apart. One of the directors, believing that Manson's wife is the killer, tries to clear her by confessing to the crime. The Noble but Misguided Confession was a staple of Golden Age detective fiction and Agatha Christie was among those who used the device to complicate her plots. It can, however, be irksome if over-done, and the Coles over-do it badly, so that half the book is devoted to the ramifications of the false and foolish confession before Superintendent Wilson makes a belated appearance.
There are various references to the Nazis, or economic problems in Germany, and there are nice but all too brief touches of satire. The unlovable Inspector Ebenezer Jones is made to say, 'I don't hold with Socialism' – the sort of in-joke that writers often enjoy introducing into their stories. The snag is that, rather than use the business scam as a context for a probing study of the pressures that may drive people to crime, the Coles came up with a half-hearted plot and Wilson solves the mystery in a very anti-climactic fashion. This is a book that is interesting, but for reasons other than those which the authors intended.
Thursday 9 December 2010
Charles Williams
Charles Williams is a name associated with a hardboiled American writer, but it was also the name of a British man of letters who was a chum of C.S. Lewis and Tolkien and a member of the Inklings who gathered in Oxford in the 30s. He wrote a few books which included elements of the detective story, though he wasn't a crime writer in the conventional sense.
He was, however, a keen reader of Golden Age stories at the time they were being written, and for about five years he reviewed them in a positive and readable way for English newspapers including The Daily Mail. Happily, an American, Jared Lobdell, has compiled a collection of them, in a delightful book called The Detective Fiction Reviews of Charles Williams.
Lobdell sets the reviews in context, writing interestingly about the Golden Age and providing notes about the many authors discussed. They range from Christie and Sayers to totally forgotten names such as Dale Collins and Richard Essex. He is fairly kind even to books that he clearly did not rate highly, but you can always get a clear sense of when he regards a novel as genuinely impressive. And his judgment, to my mind, is consistently sound.
This is not easy to achieve. There are many books that make a splash on publication which do not stand the test of time. But Williams was very good at spotting a class act – as well as at identifying books which rose above the formulaic. There are a good many books that he praises that I haven't encountered, though. Even if some of them aren't as impressive as he suggests, I'm strongly tempted to track them down.
Wednesday 8 December 2010
Last Will
Last Will is a recent movie starring Tatum O'Neill as a newlywed who marries into a very rich family. Her husband, played by Tom Berenger, is a nice guy who is also a surgeon, but it soon becomes apparent that his two younger brothers are much less appealing characters. Tatum is perceived by the brothers as a gold-digger – which she isn't – and things take a nasty turn after she becomes involved in the family business.
The husband, an older man, has a history of health problems and it is soon telegraphed that he is not in great shape. When a rich person in a crime movie makes a fuss about signing a new will, it does not take a Poirot to deduce that he isn't long for this world. And, all too soon, Tatum is widowed. But worse is to follow when evidence points to her having killed her husband in order to inherit.
Fortunately, a likeable cop, played by James Brolin, is on hand, and he has good reason not to like the surviving brothers. But matters go from bad to worse during a court case over the inheritance, when it emerges that the judge is in the brother's pocket. Tatum's brother, who is also her lawyer, does a bit of amateur detective work, and is beaten up for his pains. How can the grieving widow save herself?
This is quite an entertaining thriller, and it isn't formulaic. I really liked Brolin's performance, which was the strongest part of the film. But I did think that the story-line jumped around a lot, and some of it struck me as unconvincing. I know that American law is different from British law, but even so.... I'd rate this as worth watching, but not much above average. If you want a great film with plenty of legal twists and turns, Body Heat remains at the top of the heap.
Sunday 5 December 2010
Mystic River
I haven't read Dennis Lehane's novel, on which it was based, but I've just watched Clint Eastwood's movie, Mystic River. The film garnered several Academy Award nominations, and two Oscars, and I'm not surprised. It is very involving.
Three small boys are playing in a Boston street, years ago, when a pair of paedophiles abduct one of them. The lad escapes, eventually, but is permanently affected. The rest of the story is set in the present day, when the three boys have grown up. But that past event continues to haunt them.
One of the boys (Sean Penn) is an apparently reformed villain, whose beloved daughter goes missing. When she is found murdered, the case is investigated by the father's childhood chum (Kevin Bacon) while sympathy is offered by the man who was abducted in his youth (Tim Robbins.) A series of misunderstandings, rooted in that abduction, lead to terrible consequences.
The performances of Penn, Robbins and Bacon are uniformly excellent. I did not know that there really is a Mystic River – it turns out to be the backdrop for a grim execution. This is a restrained piece of film-making, but all the more powerful for that. I was impressed.
Thursday 2 December 2010
Forgotten Book - The Boat-House Riddle
The very title of The Boat-House Riddle by J.J. Connington gives away the fact that it is not a modern book. You'd never use such a title nowadays. And I think it's a worthy entry in Patti Abbott's series of Forgotten Books, because I'd like to bet that very few even of the knowledgeable readers of this blog have ever come across this particular novel. It was published in 1931, and my copy is a 1969 reprint, published by Lythway, who produced a lot of books for libraries in those days, some of which I read in my teens.
The boat-house in question belongs to Wendover, pal of Connington's usual detective, Chief Constable Sir Clinton Driffield. Driffield comes to stay with Wendover, and soon the body of a gamekeeper is discovered near the boat-house. We are provided with a plan of the scene. And eventually a second body is dredged up from a lake.
This is a soundly constructed story, although the circle of suspects is small and there isn't a great deal of tension or dramatic action. Much of the story is devoted to working out the sequence of events on one particular evening. But I found the book a quick and agreeable read.
An interesting feature of the novel is the observations about social class, which probably tell you a lot about England in 1931 (though I should add that Connington was a Scot who lived in Belfast.) For instance: 'If Ferrers had been one of those foreigners who can be strung up to any pitch by jealousy, there might be something in it. But an Englishman of that class would never turn a casual flirtation into a murder drama.' But my favourite line is: 'In science, an international reputation implies merely that an author's papers are read by a handful of specialists, half of whom probably disagree with the conclusion'. Connington was a scientist, and I suspect he enjoyed writing that line.
Wednesday 1 December 2010
Editing an anthology
I promised to talk about the art of putting together an anthology - so here goes. Of course, I claim no special expertise, but after editing seventeen anthologies, and being invited to contribute to a good many others over the years, at least I do have experience!
My own preference tends to be for anthologies that have a connecting theme or link of some kind. This helps to give a bit of shape to what might otherwise be shapeless. But I don't tend to obsess about the theme. 'Perfect crimes' or 'Identity' are themes that can encompass a remarkably wide range of stories.
Variety does seem to me to be important. The risk is that a reader may like some stories more than others. But that is inevitable. The key is to try to include good stories, so that even if some readers aren't bowled over by one story, others will be. And variety includes variety of length. Sometimes I include pretty short stories, sometimes much longer ones, though never anything above 10,000 words.
It's great fun to receive and read the stories. Crime writers, I've found, are very generous. I like to include stories by overseas writers when I can, and I also like the idea of mixing star names with unfamiliar names, and relative newcomers. The only part of the process that I hate is rejecting stories. None of us likes rejection, and I don't like inflicting it. But it's unavoidable, because every time, I receive more stories than there is space. To reject a story does not imply fault within the story itself, and I do try to make that clear to the authors concerned. I can only hope they understand the dilemma.
I love writing short stories, and I love reading them too. I've been especially thrilled when stories I've selected have gone on to win prizes – CWA Daggers, an Edgar, a Barry, and many nominations over the years. These honours give me a vicarious sense of satisfaction. But even more rewarding is the privilege of having been the first to see some masterly stories by the likes of Ian Rankin, Lawrence Block, Edward D. Hoch, Reginald Hill and so on. For a crime fan, what could be better?


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Jim Manzi has a long post up on epistasis, that is, gene-gene interactions:
We could call this process of competing algorithms struggling to find the best solution as fast as possible "meta-evolution". That is, each potential search method must compete for survival. The fact that the algorithm that has won this (idealized) competition in the real world has the form of a GA seems to indicate that there is some structure to the relationship between gene vectors and physical outcomes, but that it is much more complex that simple linear combinations without interaction terms, otherwise nature never would have evolved the evolutionary algorithm with all of its computational overhead. If epistatic interactions were not central, meta-evoltuion should have killed off evolution as we know it a long, long time ago.
That's a mouthful. Read the whole thing for context. Remember that there are different ways to conceive of epistasis. Molecular biologists naturally think of epistasis as biochemical interactions between genes; e.g., locus A produces a gene product which modulates the activity of gene B. Obviously if you conceptualize the mechanistic processes of genes they are interlaced with a nearly infinite number of epistatic cross-linkages. But from an evolutionary perspective you are thinking about something different, specifically you're interested in interaction effects within traits which exhibit heritable variation. For example, you can conceive of a trait's genetic architecture as being additive and independent; each gene's effect has no relation to any other gene, and the effects are cumulative. This is obviously not true for all traits; changing the state on one locus might modulate a set of other loci. R. A. Fisher and Sewall Wright are generally understood to have disagreed somewhat on the role of epistasis in evolution, with Fisher being more skeptical of its ubiquity than Wright. In particular Wright relied on epistatic effects in his Shifting Balance Theory which imagined populations exploring adaptive landscapes. Here is what James F. Crow, who knew both Fisher and Wright, told me several years ago:
1) In 2002 in "Perspective: Here's to Fisher, additive genetic variance, and the fundamental theorem of natural selection," you conclude, "is there any other quantity that captures so much evolutionary meaning in such a simple way?" in reference to additive genetic variance. And yet, what about other factors like statistical epistasis? Do gene-gene interactions pack enough of an evolutionary punch to be anything more than a footnote in God's Book? Have you seen Loren Rieseberg's work at Indiana which points to the importance of loci of large effect? [my question] The remarkable thing about additive genetic variance is that it predicts the effect of selection, even in the presence of dominance and epistasis. Nature seems to follow least-squares principles. The result is that the additive component of variance pulls out of dominance and epistatic variance those components associated with allele frequency change under selection. Of course the theory is not exact, but it is a very good first approximation. Fisher did not ignore epistasis, as some have said; rather he showed how selection can utilize epistatic (and dominance) components of variance. On a more technical level, Kimura showed that under selection with loose linkage the population rather soon attains a state in which the linkage-disequilibrium variance approximately cancels the epistatic variance. Thus, under this circumstance the effects of selection are better predicted by ignoring additive by additive epistatic variance than by including it. See my book with Kimura (1970, p. 217 ff). I am aware of Rieseberg's work on sunflowers. QTL mapping and various other molecular methods are indeed finding alleles with large effect in many species. It is inevitable that the first genes discovered will be those with largest effect, so I expect alleles with smaller effects to follow. How large a part genes with large effect have played in evolution is still up in the air, as far as I know. But they are getting more emphasis now than in the recent past.
I am wary of saying much more, this is a complex topic. After all, consider that epistatic components of variation may be converted to additive genetic variance. If I had to guess, I would offer that perhaps epistatic dynamics play an essential role in what we would term speciation, while most microevolutionary action is along the dimension of additive genetic variance. But whatever the truth of it, I do not think that the importance of interaction effects negates the fact that as a first approximation a linear model can be highly fruitful. For a full understanding of the shape of reality we must map epistasis, but without it we may still have sight of the major landmarks necessary for our journey. Though I suppose that is conditional upon where we wish to go.... Related:Through the rugged roads of gene land.


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TRADE DEALS: Obama's Freudian Slip: I Want To See Us Export More JOBS, … Ah, More Products
Sometimes hidden truths have a way of boomeranging back at the most inopportune times …
Now Obama claims to have accidentally channeled his opponent on that slip, but what is Obama's true record on crafting the kinds of trade deals that would increase the number of jobs here at home?
Economist Ian Fletcher, in his Huffington Post column, summed up Obama's NAFTA-style 'free trade' agreement with Korea, which passed last year:
You think America has learned its lesson from NAFTA, which the Labor Department has estimated cost us 525,000 jobs? Think again.
Take the Korea agreement, for example. President Obama and the Republican leadership want it despite the fact that the Economic Policy Institute has estimated it will cost us 159,000 more jobs over the next five years.
Yes, you read that correctly. At a time when the president says that his number one economic priority is job creation, and has created an entire commission for that purpose, they're going ahead with it anyway.
Even the official U.S. International Trade Commission has admitted that KORUS-FTA will cause significant job losses. And not just in low-end industries: the ITC foresees the electronic equipment manufacturing industry, with average wages of $30.38 in 2008, as a major victim.
The supposed logic of America swapping junk jobs for high-end jobs simply isn't the way the economics really works out. Pace free-market mythology, there are actually well-understood reasons for this, if you dig a little into what economists already know.
Was this the Obama America voted for in 2008?
No. That Obama is at an undisclosed location somewhere. He campaigned against KORUS-FTA during the 2008 campaign. (It was originally negotiated, but not ratified by Congress, by Bush in 2007.) Among other things, that Obama said:
I strongly support the inclusion of meaningful, enforceable labor and environmental standards in all trade agreements. As president, I will work to ensure that the U.S. again leads the world in ensuring that consumer products produced across the world are done in a manner that supports workers, not undermines them.
Nice words. Unfortunately, none of them are reflected in KORUS-FTA, which contains no serious new provisions on these issues.
This agreement is essentially a NAFTA clone. It is, in fact, the biggest trade agreement since NAFTA, and the first since Canada with a developed country.
This agreement, like NAFTA and the dozen or so other free trade agreements America has signed since NAFTA, is fundamentally an offshoring agreement. That is, it is about making it easier for U.S.-based multinationals to move production overseas with confidence in the security of their investments in overseas plants.


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Strike A Posee
50x70 cm | Colour print Edition of 6. Signed and dated.
Series of 26 colourprint
Made from 4 slit scans of screen images. One for each colour channel.
Series of works - painting, colour prints, video and sound, based on slit scanning images found on public photo sharing sites.


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China's growth prospects
China's diminished growth prospects have figured prominently in recent commentaries about global economic conditions and world stock markets (e.g. Frankel 2016). The general view, with which I concur, is that China will grow in the future at a much slower rate than it has in recent decades. This growth slowdown will reduce international trade and has probably contributed already to the depression in oil prices (Blanchard 2016).
Predicting rates of economic growth is difficult, but the best evidence for China or any other country comes from long-term data on international experience. This evidence happens to have generated a pair of '2s'. First, in the long run, each country's growth rate of real per capita GDP is about 2% per year. Second, a country's per capita GDP tends to converge to its long-run path at around 2% per year (dubbed the 'iron law of convergence'). Finally, the level of each country's long-run path depends on its individual characteristics and policies. For example, there are positive effects from better rule of law (institutional quality), greater international openness, higher life expectancy, lower fertility, higher saving rates, and lower inflation.
When I apply this empirical framework to China (Barro 2016), I find that growth rates were well below model-implied values from 1960 until sometime in the 1980s. Specifically, the average per capita growth rate from 1960 to 1990 was 2.5% per year, whereas the model's prediction was 4.9%. The main reason for the high predicted growth is that China was extremely poor in this period, and the usual convergence process predicts a response of high growth. The likely reason that actual growth was well below forecast is that China really was a Communist country until the 1980s, and the resulting poor incentives for economic activity (not captured within the model) led to low growth. Part of the disincentive for growth was Mao's disastrous Cultural Revolution from the mid-1960s to the mid-1970s.
The Chinese growth results changed dramatically around 1990, with average per capita growth from 1990 to 2014 at an astounding 7.5% per year. This growth miracle compares with a model prediction for growth of 4.6% per year (from 1990 to 2010, the Chinese per capita growth rate seems to be the highest in the world aside from that in Equatorial Guinea). There are suspicions that China's reported growth rates in recent decades have been boosted by manipulation of the national-accounts data. Although this possibility cannot be ruled out, most of the rapid development is real, not a product of creative accounting.
Using information available through 2014, the model's forecast for China's per capita growth for 2015-2020 is 3.5% per year. The predicted slowdown compared to earlier periods comes mainly from China having gotten a lot richer (leading through the convergence process to reduced growth). In contrast, China's most recent official five-year plan projects per capita growth for 2015-2020 at 5-6% per year. Thus, the model says that China's government is overly optimistic on growth by about 2% per year.
Of course, the model I'm using may be wrong, as it was underestimating Chinese growth from 1990 to 2014. But it is highly unlikely that China's growth rate can exceed in the long run the results predicted by international experience within a convergence-type framework. In particular, it is not possible for the per capita growth rate to exceed 5% per year for very much longer.
China can be viewed as a convergence success story, in the sense that the strong economic growth over a sustained period led to a level of real per capita GDP that can be characterised as middle income. To put the Chinese accomplishment into international perspective, I calculated all the convergence success stories in the world based on reasonable criteria. Specifically, I looked first at countries that had at least doubled real per capita GDP since 1990. Within this group, I defined a middle-income success as having achieved a level of real per capita GDP in 2014 of at least $10,000. An upper-income success requires a level of at least $20,000 (the numbers are in 2011 US dollars and factor in international adjustments for changes in purchasing power).
With these criteria, the world's middle-income convergence success stories comprise China, Costa Rica, Indonesia, Peru, Thailand, and Uruguay (Uruguay is a surprise, apparently boosted by dramatic migration of human capital out of Argentina.) The upper-income successes consist of Chile, Hong Kong, Ireland, Malaysia, Poland, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan.
A view that has gained recent popularity is the 'middle-income trap'. According to this idea, the successful transition from low- to middle-income status is typically followed by barriers that impede a further transition to upper income. The data suggest that this trap is a myth. Moving from low- to middle-income status, as achieved recently by China, is difficult. Conditional on achieving middle-income status, the further transition to upper-income status is also difficult. However, there is no evidence that this second transition is harder than the first one.
As mentioned before, China's growth rate of real per capita GDP has been remarkably high since around 1990, well above the rates predicted from international experience. Although I forecast that China's per capita growth rate will decline soon from 7-8% per year to 3-4%, this lower growth rate is sufficient when sustained over two to three decades to transition from low- to middle-income status (which China has already accomplished) and then from middle- to high-income status (which China will probably achieve). Thus, although the likely future growth rates will be well below recent experience, they would actually be a great accomplishment.
Perhaps the biggest challenge is that the prospective per capita growth rates in China are well below the values of 5-6% per year implied by official forecasts. Thus, the future may bring political tensions in reconciling economic dreams with economic realities. Reducing the unrealistically optimistic growth expectations held inside and outside China's government would reduce the risk of this tension and lower the temptation to achieve targets by manipulating the national-accounts data.
Editors' note: This commentary is based on the paper "Economic Growth and Convergence, Applied Especially to China", which was presented at a conference at ADBI in Tokyo on 25-26 November 2015.
Barro, R (2016), "Economic Growth and Convergence, Applied Especially to China", BER Working Paper No. 21872.
Blanchard, O (2016), "The price of oil, China, and stock market herding", VoxEU, 18 January.
Frankel, J (2016), "China's slowdown and the Chinese stock market", VoxEU, 27 January.


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Trogir, Croatia catamaran for rent - a yacht charter for up to 8 guests.
Bali 4.0
8 guests
Available discounts
Private catamaran for rent in Trogir, Croatia - book the 4 YOU & ME yacht charter and discover family vacation for up to 8 guests in 4 cabins. Bali 4.0 was built by Catana in 2018 and with its length of 39ft, it is one of the best models of its range. Book this boat today and enjoy a boat trip like never before.
If ever there was a perfect sailing area, it's the coast and islands of the Croatian Adriatic.
The islands are lively and dotted with picturesque bays, villages, and harbors. There are literally hundreds of spectacular anchorages and hidden rocky coves for you to discover and enjoy. Croatian culture is colorful and varied – a rich blend of history, culture and untouched nature. The people are friendly, warm and outgoing.
There's really no place like the Adriatic, and when you experience the easy, breezy sailing between islands, you'll fall in love with its enchanting coast. It may well be called the ultimate destination for both first-time and returning charterers.
The months of April through October is the best weather with average temperatures between 20 degrees Celsius (68°F) and 25 degrees Celsius (77°F) - just perfect for your ideal sailboating or yacht charter holiday. On average, the warmest month(s) are June, July, and August, with the warmest month being August and the coolest month is January.
Boat owner
Dear visitors, dear sailors, friends of the sea, With 1244 islands along Croatian coastline of 6278 km Croatia offers various challenges and interesting jewels of the Adriatic. Croatian coast hides beautiful caves and bays, pebble and sand beaches, some of them are even considered among the most beautiful locations in the world. In this beauty our company found its place and in 2015 was elected as the best charter company in Croatia. It was a special honor to receive this award. The whole accomplishment would not be possible without the dedication of the team, the trust of our business partners and loyal clients. Angelina was founded in 1995 as a small family business. Nowadays our fleet counts over 170 sailing yachts, catamarans, motor yachts and motor boats in five nautical bases: Sukosan, Biograd, Sibenik, Rogoznica and Trogir. The whole fleet is carefully selected in order to provide you with the best quality vessels for your sailing holidays. Some of the brands of boats are Bali, Bavaria, Beneteau, Dufour, Elan, Fountaine Pajot, Hanse, Lagoon, Jeanneau, SAS Vektor. In order to ensure that your experience is carefree we are keeping the maintenance on the highest level. During the charter season our technical team is available 24/7 for any kind of support, information or even emergency. It is our strong belief that every aspect of this work is of high importance so whether you need department of sales while looking for the best charter vessel, base staff to assist you with technical questions or route suggestions, each conversation will start with a smile to wish you a warm welcome in Angelina! Embrace the beauty of Croatian coast and create your own unforgettable Angelina holiday!
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