text:
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Shoe Shine Pro is a hand-held, battery operated shoe polishing device that'll enable you to quickly polish your shoes without making a mess. You can use this device on heels, loafers, and even boots in order to make your footwear look professional at work or classy while you're out and about. Each device comes with two polishing brushes, two buffing attachments, two containers of shoe polish ( black and brown ), and a storage case that'll hold all of these parts.
The cost of Shoe Shine Pro is $14.95 plus $5.95 shipping. The special TV offer allows you to receive a second Shoe Shine Pro by paying an extra fee of $5.95 for a total price of $26.85.
This price was obtained from the As Seen on TV commercial page which was taken offline due to Shoe Shine Pro being discontinued. Shoe Shine Pro may still be found for sale on Amazon or Ebay.
This price was obtained from the As Seen on TV commercial page which was taken offline due to Shoe Shine Pro being discontinued. Shoe Shine Pro may still be found for sale on Amazon or Ebay.
Ensure that a polishing brush is attached to the end of your Shoe Shine Pro. Apply polish to the brush, and use the brush to transfer the polish to the appropriate shoe. To do so, you'll first need to use the power button, which you can find on your device's handle, to turn it on.
Once you're done applying polish to a shoe or pair of shoes, you'll need to buff each shoe by using one of the buffing attachments. You can manually remove your polishing brush from the end of your device or use the slot on your storage case to help you. Following that, you must simply slide a buffing attachment into its place, and you'll be ready to carry out the buffing process. For maximum shine, buff your shoes for several minutes.
After you've buffed your shoes, they'll be ready to wear. At this point, you may wish to take your device apart and put the pieces in your storage case, but this isn't necessary.
Each Shoe Shine Pro is cordless, so you won't have to drag a cord around with you when you use it. This also means it will take up less space in a bag or suitcase if you take it outside your home.
All of these devices run by battery, making it unnecessary for you to find an available electrical outlet when you want to use yours. Plus, using one won't add to the electrical bill for your home or workplace.
The Shoe Shine Pro has been designed with ergonomics in mind, so it's unlikely that its handle will slip out of your hand or cause you any pain and strain as you hold onto it.
If you don't polish your shoes regularly, they'll start looking dull, which will also make them appear old and worn. Fortunately, using Shoe Shine Pro will make maintaining the attractive, store-fresh appearance of your valued footwear a much quicker, tidier task.
Whether you're meeting with other professionals at an existing job or going on a job interview, individuals in the business world will appreciate the look of polished shoes. Hence, frequently using Shoe Shine Pro for polishing purposes just may boost your professional image and bring more career opportunities your way.
You'll need batteries to run your Shoe Shine Pro, but these aren't included with each device, so you'll need to go out and find those on your own.
Each device comes with both brown and black shoe polish, but these shades aren't suitable for very light-coloured shoes, so you'll also have to find your own clear polish to use to shine up those.
You can shine your shoes with a cloth or rag and some shoe polish, but to do so, you'll need to invest energy by sliding the rag or cloth back and forth over each shoe. With the Shoe Shine Pro, all you'll need to do is turn the device on and hold your hand steady, and it'll do that part of the job for you. Without a great deal of hand movement, it'll be less likely that polish will end up on you or the floor instead of on your shoes.
Professionals will shine your shoes for you for a fee, but you'll have to find the time and financial resources necessary to attend appointments regularly.
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In this photo the five stalked fruits or achenes of Geranium incanum have split away from each other, now as ripe seeds ready to use their twisting stalks to position themselves as well they can for germination.
The splitting of the surface covering of the style provides every seed with its own water responsive mechanical device, a tail for settling independently. Removal of these five thin, curling parts from the style results in only the central column remaining straight, erect to keep all of it together for a while.
There is rarely a photo shoot before each seed departs, fully self-sufficient to find fortune, i.e. to become a new plant somewhere on the land. The five break-aways are ready to absorb water and curl, now in seed dispersal, self-planting and germination mode (Bean and Johns, 2005; Wikipedia).

subset: commoncrawl


text:
commons's examples
- House of Commons Popularly elected lower house of the bicameral British Parliament . Passage of legislation is its primary function. — "House of Commons of the United Kingdom: Definition from",
- (Canadian, politics) The House of Commons, part of the parliament of (Wiktionary and WMF jargon) The Wikimedia Commons, a repository of free images, sound and other multimedia files, which may be used in other projects on the Wikimedia. — "Commons - Wiktionary",
- Commons definition, belonging equally to, or shared alike by, two or more or all in question: See more. — "Commons | Define Commons at ",
- The Commons: an institute of the whole. Site Navigation[Skip] The Commons Home. Background The Commons Home. Maximize use of the available wisdom [Back To Top]. — "The Commons Home | The Commons: an institute of the whole",
- The commons were traditionally defined as the elements of the environment - forests, atmosphere, rivers, fisheries or grazing land - that are shared, used and enjoyed by all. The commons can also include public goods' such as public space,. — "The commons - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia",
- Each entering class lives together in the ten Houses of The Commons. Together in The Commons, they create a first-year experience that enriches the first of four transformative Vanderbilt years, where university. — "Welcome to The Commons", commons.vanderbilt.edu
- Collection of open source reusable Java components from the Apache/Jakarta community. herecfor .Commons < hg" class="esec => < Where dc I getconents. ink">ApacTheaing" idu> ac he=" pe stconentsApacfor slie c may be available only rough the mirror. syst m.ink">ApacSlie onentsApacavailable rough. — "Apache Commons - Apache Commons",
- Definition of commons from Webster's New World College Dictionary. Meaning of commons. Pronunciation of commons. Definition of the word commons. Origin of the word commons. — "commons - Definition of commons at ",
- DIV id="gallery">. — "Information Technology Division - Information Technology", commons.lbl.gov
- Supported by and developed with its members, the Internet2 Commons has deployed an H.323 Videoconferencing Service for multi-site connections. The Internet2 Commons encourages the large-scale deployment of tools. — "Internet2 Commons", commons.internet2.edu
- Provides a central repository for free images, music, sound and video clips, and possibly, texts and spoken texts, used in pages of any Wikimedia project. The IUCN Red List has agreed to license distribution maps derived from the data present on their website with a Creative Commons By-SA 2.0. — "Wikimedia Commons",
- Definition of Commons in the Online Dictionary. Meaning of Commons. Pronunciation of Commons. Translations of Commons. Commons synonyms, Commons antonyms. Information about Commons in the free online English dictionary and encyclopedia. tragedy. — "Commons - definition of Commons by the Free Online Dictionary",
- Encyclopedia article about commons. Information about commons in the Columbia Encyclopedia, Computer Desktop Encyclopedia, computing dictionary. tragedy of the commons, house of commons. — "commons definition of commons in the Free Online Encyclopedia", encyclopedia2
- The Commons is a general term for shared resources in which each stakeholder has an equal interest. Studies on the commons include the Information Commons with issues about Public Knowledge, the Public Domain, Open Science, and the free exchange. — "Commons - P2P Foundation", p2
- University Commons offers one-, two- and three-bedroom lofts in Chicago starting at $170,000. — "University Commons -- The Next Generation In Loft Living",
- The Commons schemas get preferential treatment in the Freebase client UI. There is now a focus on improving the commons and maintaining a high standard. — "Commons - Freebase",
- Scheduled Commons Maintenance: For maintenance information, see the eRA Scheduled Maintenance Calendar. More Recent Features of Commons include: ***NEW*** Training and related appointments and terminations must be submitted via xTrain after January 1,. — "Commons", commons.era.nih.gov
- Creative Commons licenses provide a flexible range of protections and freedoms for authors, artists, and educators. — "Creative Commons",
- Flickr is almost certainly the best online photo management and sharing application in the world. Show off your favorite photos and videos to the The key goals of The Commons on Flickr are to firstly show you hidden treasures in the world's public photography archives, and secondly to show how. — "Flickr: The Commons",
- What is the commons, and how is it valued? The atmosphere and oceans, languages and cultures, the stores of human knowledge and wisdom, the informal support systems of community, the peace and quiet that we crave, the genetic building blocks of life — these are all aspects of the commons. — "The Hidden Commons -- Jonathan Rowe, endangered common areas",
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- Entire Box Of Commons (Cyber Dragons, Chaos Sorcerer, And More!) Part 2 These videos are showing my entire box of commons that i have had for over eight years. Message me if you need anything and enjoy.
- Thom Hartmann: America's commons for sale to the highest bidder Utah Governor Gary Herbert wants to sell his state off to the highest corporate bidder with Zaid Jilani,
- The Light 2008 (It's Love) - Common BRAND NEW TRACK!!! The Light 2008 (It's Love) - Common From the Smirnoff Vodka's Signature Mix Series. The track is produced by Just Blaze.
- The Commons a short introduction into the idea of the commons, as well as a critical review of the so called "tragedy of the commons", You're invited to use the video for whatever purpose: It has a free licence: Creative Commons: BY, SA
- Entire Box Of Commons (Cyber Dragons, Chaos Sorcerer, And More!) Part 1 These videos are showing my entire box of commons that i have had for over eight years. Message me if you need anything and enjoy.
- Common ft. Pharrell "Universal Mind Control"
- Commons of House Due to popular demand, I have decided to upload this song from Spitting Image (I know I've missed it since it was taken off YouTube). I own nothing here! Just wanted to share this bit of brilliance with other fans. :) Spitting Image is copyright NetworkDVD. Season 7 is out now! [/shameless and free plug]
- David Rovics - The Commons Animation by set to the song The Commons by protest folksinger David Rovics. For information on Reclaim the Commons issues visit , or these other websites on biotech issues: , , , , , sunshine-, biojustice2007.org, . Released in conjunction with BioJustice 2007: a week long celebration of sustainable food and alternatives to corporate healthcare. It is being developed by a wide coalition of public interest groups, activists, farmers, scientists, and concerned citizens, working together in response to the biotechnology industry's international convention scheduled for the new Boston Convention and Exhibition Center during May 6-9, 2007.
- LA Commons Youth Artists - Support LA Commons LA Commons Youth Artist edited this video in support of the Community Arts Program and their efforts to win the Pepsi Refresh Grant that will help to fund more neighborhood arts residencies throughout Los Angeles.
- What are Commons? (english) What are Commons? - An explaination of the idea.
- Sustainable development and the tragedy of commons Stockholm whiteboard seminars: Elinor Ostrom explains how people can use natural resources in a sustainable way based on the diversity that exists in the world.
- I Love Commons (Davidson's I Love College Remix ft. Stephen Curry) Download the MP3 here: (for lyrics click more info) The Davidson Show's remix of I Love College, a tribute to the eating facility at Davidson College, premiered at the Davidson Awards Show May 4th. For more videos, check out: LYRICS I'm...
- Kris Commons 1st Goal Celtic v Hamilton 05/03/2011
- Common, Kanye West - They Say Music video by Common, Kanye West performing They Say. (C) 2005 Geffen Records
- Common-Reminding Me (Of Sef) (Instrumental)" Not one of his best ever but still cool.....insturmental from commons "Reminding Me (Of Sef)" CD Maxi Single.
- 5 May referendum explained On Thursday May 5 2011, there will be a referendum on the voting system you use to elect MPs. Our resident expert Victor is here to tell you all you need to know about the two voting systems, and to explain what to do on referendum day. --- If you require an audio version of the information in this film, an audio booklet is available at /booklet This film has closed captions, which aren't viewable on some mobile devices. To view them, please visit on your computer.
- Common - The Light "The Light" is the Grammy-nominated second single off Common's 2000 album Like Water for Chocolate. It is produced by Jay Dee and features keyboards performed by James Poyser. It samples "Open Your Eyes" as performed by Bobby Caldwell and the drums from "You're Getting a Little too Smart" by the The Detroit Emeralds. Framed as a love letter, it is a confession of Common's love for a woman whom many believe to have been his girlfriend at the time, Erykah Badu. Cythia Fuchs of PopMatters describes it as a "charming, tender, and undeniably soulful declaration of affection and respect." A music video directed by Nzingha Stewart features Common, Erykah Badu and "recognizable sensual delights" including "a homemade Minnie Ripperton cassette, a mango, a pink lava lamp and a deeply green water-beaded leaf.
- Mary Idema Pew Library Learning and Information Commons Construction
- 2.7 Deconversion: Losing God I explain the torturous emotional roller-coaster and eventual desolate hopelessness and terror that resulted from losing my theistic God. For progress updates on the next video, subscribe to: All excerpts used in this video are either copyright-free or covered under "fair use" in Title 17 § 107 of the USC. Music (in order of appearance): "Swamp" by Télépopmusik "Bloodstone" by Amon Tobin "Welcome to the Real World" by Don Davis Image Attributions: .
- Emory History Minute: Coca-Cola Commons To celebrate Emory's 175th anniversary, Emory Report brings you a look at little-known facts about the university. In 1984, Emory University wanted to expand upon the Alumni Memorial University Center, or AMUC, without defacing the classic Emory marble exterior wall of the building. Renowned Atlanta architect John Portman rose to the challenge building a new atrium around the wall. The result was the Coca-Cola Commons. To see the entire collection of Emory History Minutes, log on to Emory Report's website at bit.ly And for more information about Emory's 175th Anniversary, log on to www.emory.edu
- Idol Night at The Commons - Week 6 Recap video produced by: http
- The Commons at Vanderbilt Learn more about The Commons at Vanderbilt University.
- The Commons In a just world, the idea of wealth--be it money derived from the work of human hands, the resources and natural splendor of the planet itself--and the knowledge handed down through generations belongs to all of us. But in our decidedly unjust and imperfect world, our collective wealth is increasingly concentrated in the hands of a few. There is be a better way--the notion of the commons--common land, resources, knowledge--is a common-sense way to share our natural, cultural, intellectual riches. In this innovative animation, filmmaker Laura Hanna, writer Gavin Browning and video artists/animators Dana Schechter and Molly Schwartz examine the concept of "The Commons" as a means to achieve a society of justice and equality. Video licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 license, visit to view the license. Inspiration from the film came from four provocative books: Unjust Desserts: How the Rich Are Taking Our Common Inheritance and Why We Should Take it Back by Gar Alperovitz and Lew Daly ( ) Blue Covenant: The Global Water Crisis and the Coming Battle for the Right to Water, by Maude Barlow ( ) Viral Spiral: How the Commoners Built a Digital Republic of Their Own, by David Bollier ( ) The Magna Carta Manifesto: Liberties and Commons for All, by Peter Linebaugh ( www.ucpress.edu ) In cyberspace, the "viral spiral" is a way ideas and innovations grow and be shared with ever-larger ...
- Keepon dancing to Spoon's "Don't You Evah" The robot Keepon (developed by Hideki Kozima and programmed by Marek Michalowski) dancing to the Spoon song, "Don't You Evah." Keepon and Spoon will reunite at WIRED NextFest in LA September 10, 2007 for Creative Commons. This video is available to the public under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 3.0 license. For information about what uses this license permits, visit See http http
- Marine iguanas of the Galapagos islands - BBC wildlife In order to survive, iguanas have adapted to tackle the rough tropical seas. The sea lions however can't help teasing them in their death defying hunt for red and green algae. From the BBC
- President Obama speech British Parliament House of Commons 5-25-2011 Complete speech of President Obama addressing the British Paliament.
- The Commons David Rovics in concert
- Nine Network - Living St. Louis - Media Commons - Living St. Louis producer Patrick Murphy tells the story of the groundbreaking for the new UMSL building housing St. Louis Public Radio and media commons.
- Idol Night at The Commons - Week 5 Recap video produced by: http
- Giggs Named In Commons As Footballer Identified On Twitter In Context Of Injunctions Ryan Giggs has been named by an MP in the House of Commons as the person identified on Twitter in the context of injunctions. Birmingham MP John Hemming gave the footballer's name when speaking about injunctions in Parliament. He spoke after a group of newspapers failed in its bid to lift an injunction which banned the naming of the Premier League footballer who had a "***ual relationship" with a reality TV star.
- Fox News Attacks Common, Defends Ted Nugent Rapper Common is slated to perform at the White House for poetry night which has sparked criticism from Fox host Sean Hannity. Ana Kasparian and Cenk Uygur discuss. Subscribe: bit.ly TYT Mobile: bit.ly On Facebook: On Twitter: FREE Movies(!): Read Ana's blog and subscribe at: Read Cenk's Blog:
- A Common Sense Campaign for America. Not endorsed by or affiliated with Jon Huntsman or anyone from his campaign. Produced by . Music by Diego Massanti, Argentina - Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike 3.0 License.
- NYC DAY 3 : Woodbury Common Outlet My trip to the woodbury common premium outlet in upstate new york.
- Cameron shred Brown into Pieces In one of the spectacular moments of the questioning in the house of commons on issues of election and inheritance tax
- Funny House of Commons Moments A collection of funny House of Commons moments showing British politics at its best.
- Starbucks Presents: Sarah McLachlan, Live from the Commons Sarah McLachlan stopped by the Starbucks headquarters in Seattle, WA to play some songs for us. We streamed it live through an internet broadcast on June 25th, 2010. Starting July 1st, enjoy a HD version of her performance exclusively through the Starbucks Digital Network.
- KRIS COMMONS TRIBUTE Kris Commons what can I say what a legend!!!
- Topping Off the Brody Learning Commons On May 9, 2011, members of the Hopkins community gathered on the south patio of the Milton S. Eisenhower Library to celebrate a milestone in the construction of the Brody Learning Commons.
- Commons re-elects Bercow as speaker (18May10) The still dis-respectable commons re-elected expenses fiddler John Bercow as Commons speaker, thus showing that the MP's have NO morals whatsoever. Recorded from BBC Parliament Channel, 18 May 2010.
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- Garrett Hardin on the Tragedy of the Commons Garrett Hardin on human nature and the Tragedy of the Commons. We can't bring all other nations up to the US standard of living. "What I meant by writing The Tragedy of the Commons is to call people's attention to the fact that the problem of dividing the resources has to be done in a way that fits in with human nature. We shouldn't expect too much of it." We evolved to handle immediate dangers, not long-term crises. Discussion of Marxism, religion, and sustainability. Marketing versus indifference to the future. What can we do? Reward for correct behavior on terms of tax incentives and family planning. Read more about Garrett Hardin at View more short videos at http Video copyright 1990 Educational Communications, Inc. PO Box 351419, Los Angeles, CA 90035. 310.559.9160. Permission required for other than personal viewing.
Blogs & Forum
blogs and forums about commons
"This blog tracks technical developments on the CUNY Academic Commons. Commons code for the common good. You can find our work on this blog"
— blog – CUNY Academic Commons Development Blog, mons.gc.cuny.edu
"The World Commons Forum. Dear World Citizens, "Civis Mundus sum" – I am a world citizen. I am looking forward to advancing this common vision and understanding at the World Commons Forum 2009 in Salzburg"
— World Commons Forum 2009 | Salzburg, world-commons-
"BBC Blog. Common Ground Foundation. Common on MySpace. Common on Twitter Blog. Killahbeez. N*E*R*D. Nah Right. Real Hip-Hop Since79. Tony Williams'"
— Think Common,
"Our highlights of what's happening in the world of fair use, and new developments in Critical Commons. Creative Commons. Featured Projects. Deleuze and Cinema. A graduate seminar on Deleuze and Culture taught by Kara Keeling at USC. The"
— Critical Commons Blog — Critical Commons,
"News about software and social media for nonprofits. Using Bit.ly to Your Advantage | Social Source Commons Blog on Building a Social Media Dashboard with Netvibes"
— Social Source Commons Blog,
"Blog. Congress. Partners. CCSB. WPP. Supporters. Home " Commons " Forum. Sage Forum. Sage discussion forum to distribute periodic updates on Sage activities"
— Sage Bionetworks Seattle | Sage Forum,
"Posted in Transportation | Common Sense's blog | Delicious | Digg | Facebook | Technorati Ralph Meima's blog | Delicious | Digg | Facebook | Technorati | 1 attachment"
— Blog - Vermont Commons,
"Scalable mobile marketing campaign management from web based user interface. Combines SMS mobile messaging with voice, ***ytics, reporting, APIs, CRM, web, twitter, facebook, widgets and geo-location. Used for list building, fundraising, mobile"
— Blog | Mobile Commons,
"Forum Romanum. From Wikimedia Commons, the free media repository. Jump to: navigation, Retrieved from "http:///wiki/Forum_Romanum""
— Forum Romanum - Wikimedia Commons,
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Published on February 11, 2014
Author: magnific1
Source: slideshare.net
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text:
Ducks change wintering patterns due to changing climate in the important wintering waters of the Odra River Estuary
- Published
- Accepted
- Received
- Academic Editor
- James Roper
- Subject Areas
- Climate Change Biology, Conservation Biology, Ecology, Ecosystem Science, Zoology
- Keywords
- Winter range shift, Ice coverage sensitivity, Greater Scaup, Common Pochard, Tufted Duck, Eurasian coot, Smew, Important Bird Areas, Behavior, Baltic Sea
- Copyright
- © 2017 Marchowski et al.
- Licence
- This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, reproduction and adaptation in any medium and for any purpose provided that it is properly attributed. For attribution, the original author(s), title, publication source (PeerJ) and either DOI or URL of the article must be cited.
- Cite this article
- 2017. Ducks change wintering patterns due to changing climate in the important wintering waters of the Odra River Estuary. PeerJ 5:e3604 https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.3604
Some species of birds react to climate change by reducing the distance they travel during migration. The Odra River Estuary in the Baltic Sea is important for wintering waterfowl and is where we investigated how waterbirds respond to freezing surface waters. The most abundant birds here comprise two ecological groups: bottom-feeders and piscivores. Numbers of all bottom-feeders, but not piscivores, were negatively correlated with the presence of ice. With ongoing global warming, this area is increasing in importance for bottom-feeders and decreasing for piscivores. The maximum range of ice cover in the Baltic Sea has a weak and negative effect on both groups of birds. Five of the seven target species are bottom-feeders (Greater Scaup Aythya marila, Tufted Duck A. fuligula, Common Pochard A. ferina, Common Goldeneye Bucephala clangula and Eurasian Coot Fulica atra), and two are piscivores (Smew Mergellus albellus and Goosander Mergus merganser). Local changes at the level of particular species vary for different reasons. A local decline of the Common Pochard may simply be a consequence of its global decline. Climate change is responsible for some of the local changes in the study area, disproportionately favoring some duck species while being detrimental to others.
Migration distance has declined in several species of aquatic (and other) birds as a result of climate change (Musil et al., 2011; Lehikoinen et al., 2013; Meller, 2016). The distances that birds migrate from their breeding areas in northern and eastern Europe to their central European wintering areas are shorter during mild winters (Lehikoinen et al., 2013; Pavón-Jordan et al., 2015); conversely, birds may change their wintering sites to warmer regions during colder periods because they may perceive local manifestations of larger scale weather (Newton, 2008). Reducing migration distance can provide several benefits associated with earlier arrival at the breeding grounds and greater survival (Coppack & Both, 2002; Jankowiak et al., 2015a; Jankowiak et al., 2015b). Food resources of wintering sites may also influence migration decisions (Cresswell, 2014; Aharon-Rotman et al., 2016). Although winter site fidelity is usually very strong among waterfowl (Newton, 2008), this can change in response to weather, habitat, and competition (Cresswell, 2014). Changing winter sites may often be a trade-off between the costs of finding a new site and the benefits it offers (Aharon-Rotman et al., 2016). At sub-zero temperatures, shallow waters freeze over; forcing birds to expend more time and energy searching for food in deeper, open waters. Three functional groups of waterbirds forage in the shallow waters of offshore lagoons: piscivores, herbivores and bottom-feeders, for example, large numbers of waterbirds gather to forage in the Odra River Estuary (hereafter ORE) (Marchowski et al., 2015; Marchowski, Jankowiak & Wysocki, 2016). Two groups of waterbirds—bottom-feeders and piscivores—are among those most commonly wintering here. During winter, the study area is subject to wide variation in temperatures, often making surface waters subject to freezing (Van Erden & De Leeuw, 2010). Yet even relatively small variations in temperature, causing ice cover to form or disappear, can lead to the displacement of waterbirds. Changes in abundance and community structure of birds in the ORE may reflect the impact of climate change. Analysis of the dates of the appearance of ice-related phenomena in the Szczecin Lagoon and of their frequency over time reveals a distinct pattern illustrating recently observed trends in climate warming (Girjatowicz, 2011). In this paper, we are looking for how the abundance of some species in the ORE changes due to climate warming. We are investigating whether climate change will differentially influence foraging patterns, and consequently overwintering patterns, of these two groups of birds. Thus, increasing temperatures due to climate change, and the shorter time interval with ice cover will result in increasing numbers of bottom-feeders because they will then migrate shorter distances. Frosts in the study area are never so severe that the water freezes completely to the bottom even in the shallows. But even if ice does cover the surface of shallow water bottom-feeders have no access to food and have to move to warmer areas because feeding areas where sedentary mussels are abundant tend to be in shallow waters (Marchowski et al., 2015). Piscivores, on the other hand, can still feed in such conditions (frozen surface of shallows, unfrozen deeper areas - further from the shore, where there are no mussels but there are fish) and remain in the area, e.g., observation of large aggregations of piscivores during harsh winters (Smew Mergellus albellus and Goosander Mergus merganser) (Kaliciuk, Oleksiak & Czeraszkiewicz, 2003; Czeraszkiewicz, Haferl & Oleksiak, 2004; Marchowski & Ławicki, 2011; Guentzel et al., 2012; Marchowski & Ławicki, 2012; Marchowski, Ławicki & Guentzel, 2013). This has consequences for conservation management plans in protected areas. Two different groups of birds react differently to climate warming, showing different patterns of moving closer to their breeding grounds, as a consequence in our area should be more bottom-feeders. Thus, changes in the importance of wintering ground due to changing surface-water freezing patterns expected under global warming regimes are likely to have important consequences for very large numbers of these birds.
Study area
The study area in the south-western Baltic Sea forms the Polish part of the Odra River Estuary system, which includes the Great Lagoon (the Polish part of the Szczecin Lagoon), Świna Backward Delta, Kamień Lagoon, Dziwna Strait and Lake Dąbie (522.58 km2, Fig. 1). The area comprises four interconnected Important Bird Areas (IBA) and also a Natura 2000 area (Wilk et al., 2010). The average and maximum depths of the estuary are 3.8 and 8.5 m, respectively; the dredged shipping lane passing through the estuary from the Baltic Sea to the port of Szczecin is 10.5 m deep (Radziejewska & Schernewski, 2008). Waters of the Szczecin Lagoon, Kamień Lagoon, and Lake Dąbie are brackish. Salinity in the central part of the estuary varies from 0.3 psu to 4.5 psu (mean = 1.4 psu) and declines with increasing distance from the sea (Radziejewska & Schernewski, 2008). Average winter temperature is 0.3°C (Weatherbase, 2016). The ORE is subject to high levels of eutrophication (Radziejewska & Schernewski, 2008). Communities of benthic organisms are typical of freshwater bodies, and the fauna includes large populations of zebra mussels Dreissena polymorpha, which was introduced in the mid-19th century. By the 1960s, the biomass of zebra mussels in the Szczecin (Great) Lagoon was estimated at 110,000 metric tons (Wiktor, 1969; Wolnomiejski & Woźniczka, 2008). The distribution of the zebra mussel is extremely uneven (see the map in Marchowski et al., 2015). The average density of the zebra mussel in the ORE is 0.18 kg /m2, but the vast majority occupies around 10% of the area, where the mean density is 2.05 kg/m2 (Stańczykowska, Lewandowski & Czarnoleski, 2010). Fish are mainly freshwater species such as roach Rutilus rutilus, bream Abramis brama, pike Esox lucius, perch Perca fluviatilis and ruff Gymnocephalus cernua; there are also anadromous fish including smelt Osmerus eperlanus and occasionally herring Clupea harengus among others (Wolnomiejski & Witek, 2013).
Bird censusing
The study covers two functional groups of waterbirds: bottom-feeders (diving birds, feeding on motionless type of food—mussels)—Greater Scaup (Aythya marila—hereafter Scaup), Tufted Duck (A. fuligula), Common Pochard (A. ferina— hereafter Pochard), Common Goldeneye (Bucephala clangula—hereafter Goldeneye) and Eurasian Coot (Fulica atra—hereafter Coot); piscivores (diving birds, feeding on mobile type of food—fish)—Smew and Goosander (Stempniewicz, 1974; Cramp & Simmons, 1977; Johansgard, 1978). Six of our target species belong to the order: Anseriformes, family: Anatidae, subfamily: Anatinae and Tribe: Mergini (Goldeneye, Smew and Goosander), Tribe: Aythyini (Scaup, Pochard and Tufted Duck); one species—Coot belongs to the order: Gruiformes, family: Rallidae (Del Hoyo & Collar, 2014). Although Coot is not closely related to the rest of our species, we included it into a common group of waterbirds and, due to its behavior and ecology, to the bottom-feeders group (Stempniewicz, 1974; Taylor & Kirwan, 2016). These seven species are usually very abundant in the study area (Kaliciuk, Oleksiak & Czeraszkiewicz, 2003; Czeraszkiewicz, Haferland & Oleksiak, 2004; Wilk et al., 2010; Marchowski & Ławicki, 2011; Guentzel et al., 2012; Marchowski & Ławicki, 2012; Marchowski, Ławicki & Guentzel, 2013). These are important gathering areas for populations of these birds associated with regional migration flyways. These subpopulations (hereafter regional or flyway populations) are: Pochard—north-east Europe / north-west Europe; Tufted Duck—north-west Europe (wintering); Scaup—northern Europe / western Europe; Goldeneye—north-west and central Europe; Smew—north-west and central Europe (wintering); Goosander—north-west and central Europe (wintering); Coot—north-west Europe (wintering) (Wetlands International, 2016).
Censuses were conducted using standard methods for non-breeding season waterbirds counts (Komdeur, Bertelsen & Cracknell, 1992; Wetlands International, 2010). Birds were counted during 17 seasons (1991/1992 to 1993/1994 and 2001/2002 to 2015/2016) during the migration and wintering periods between November and April. Three censuses were carried out per season in November, January, and March or April; there was one midwinter count in January in 2001/2002. Altogether we analyzed the results of 44 counts. Most counts were done on foot. Each observer was equipped with 10x binoculars and tripod-mounted spotting scopes. Observers walked along the same routes, and the same counting method was used during every census every year. Additionally, fourteen aerial counts were made at an average speed of about 100 km/h and an altitude of about 80 m above the water (see Table S1 for the method of data collection: aerial or ground). In the early 1990s, counts were aerial, whereas in 2009–2015 parallel aerial and ground counts were carried out (to compare methods). In ice-free conditions, the species covered in this study can be assigned to a group with just a small error between methods (<6%), one species—Coot had a moderate error (16%), the ground method estimated greater numbers than the aerial one. During periods with more than 70% ice cover, abundance estimated from the air was greater than that estimated from the ground (Dominik Marchowski, pers. comm., 2016). Count method was treated as a random effect in the model. The detailed methodology and results of the counts are given elsewhere (Meissner & Kozakiewicz, 1992; Meissner, Kozakiewicz & Skakuj, 1994; Kaliciuk, Oleksiak & Czeraszkiewicz, 2003; Czeraszkiewicz, Haferland & Oleksiak, 2004; Marchowski & Ławicki, 2011; Guentzel et al., 2012; Marchowski & Ławicki, 2012; Marchowski, Ławicki & Guentzel, 2013). Where large numbers of unidentified Aythya species were counted—26,000 ducks in November 2009, 13,000 in November 2010, 6,000 in January 2012, 3,300 in March 2012 and 13,500 in November 2015—they were estimated to be in the ratio of 1:0.8 (scaup:tufted) based on observations in other studies. Observations were always at a distance that does not disturb the birds in any way, and in Poland, this research required no ethical or scientific permits.
|Functional groupb
|Number of individuals (1992)c
|Number of individuals (2012)d
|Population trend % p.a.e
|Significance of changesf
|Greater Scaup
|Large decline
|Common Pochard
|Large decline
|Tufted Duck
|Large decline
|Eurasian Coot
|Moderate increase
|Common Goldeneye
|Moderate increase
|Large increase
Statistical analysis
Absolute numbers of birds can vary widely and independently, and so the proportion of the local population size (in our study area) in relation to flyway population for each species was used as our dependent variable (Nagy, Flink & Langendoen, 2014; Wetlands International, 2016). Thus, if we used the trend of absolute numbers in our area, the resulting error would be the larger, the greater the changes in the size of the flyway population. Therefore, we indicate the numbers of a species by means of a coefficient calculated as the percentage of the flyway population present in the study area during a particular count. We obtained the regional population size estimates from 1992 to 2012 from Nagy, Flink & Langendoen (2014); for the period 2013–2016, we used the flat trend calculated by Nagy, Flink & Langendoen (2014) (Table 1). Initially, we placed the different species in ecological groups. The bottom-feeders (denoted by B) included Scaup, Tufted Duck, Pochard, Goldeneye and Coot, and the piscivores (P) contained Smew and Goosander. We used the minimum temperatures averaged over the 15 days leading up to the count day. The climate data were obtained from the Szczecin weather station (53.395N, 14.6225E, http://tutiempo.net). Another climate covariate was ice cover in the study area; data relating to this were published by the Polish Institute of Meteorology and Water Management. These data are from the observation point at Miroszewo on the shore of the Szczecin Lagoon (53.734N, 14.331E, http://www.imgw.pl/). We compared the number of days with 100% ice cover in the period from 0 to 15 days prior to the bird counts. The ice cover of 100% refers specifically to the Miroszewo observation point. This estimate is a good approximation for the region. In practice, however, the ORE is never completely covered by ice (Girjatowicz, 1990; Girjatowicz, 2005; see the Discussion for an explanation) and birds are still present in such conditions. We also utilized the maximum ice extent in the Baltic Sea (max ice; data obtained from the website of The European Environment Agency; EEA-The European Environment Agency, 2017). Apart from climatic variables, we also tested the changes in species occurrence during the survey years, so we used the season as a covariate. Prior to the final analysis, we checked multicollinearity between the above variables using the variation inflation factor (VIF). VIFs of all variables were in acceptable limits, minimum temperatures (V IF = 2.1), max ice (V IF = 1.03), ice cover (V IF = 2.07) and season (V IF = 1.04). However, we found a moderate linear significant relationship between minimum temperature and ice cover (r = 0.52, p < 0.001) and after exclusion of minimal temperature VIF showed no multicollinearity issue between variables—ice cover (V IF = 1.04), max ice (V IF = 1.03), season (V IF = 1.03)—and these were used in the subsequent analyses. Frozen water by definition impedes bottom-feeding duck foraging, we are testing whether that pattern is changing in association with climate change. We used a general linear mixed model (GLMM) to test above-described relationship. The percentage of the flyway population present in the study area, estimated by species, was used as a target variable using the normal distribution response distribution and identity link function. Mixed models permitted repetition across survey months, methods (aerial and ground counts) and species (random intercept). Thus, to test our assumptions we included the following interactions: feeding group*season, feeding group*ice cover and feeding group*max ice. Selection of the best model structure for the dependent variable was based on the Akaike information criterion (AIC) (Zuur et al., 2009). All possible models were carried out (they are listed in Table S2 in Supplementary material). As the final models, we assumed those in which ΔAIC <2 (Burnham & Anderson, 2002) and in our case, it was only a general model with all the tested variables. To test the relationship between explanatory variables and particular species abundance we performed for each species GLMM model, where random effects were month and method. We checked also the relationship between winter year and ice cover using a generalized linear model with negative binomial error distribution. We used IBM SPSS Statistic version 20 software for the statistical analysis. P < 0.05 was considered statistically significant.
Below, we present the results of our analyzes, the main one jointly examines two whole groups: piscivores and bottom-feeders and the second one where each species was analyzed. Bird numbers by feeding group were different in their relationships with ice cover; bottom-feeding species in the study area were more sensitive to lower temperatures and left sooner when colder weather increased ice cover, whereas a number of piscivorous species had a higher tolerance to the extent of ice cover (Table 2). Interactions between feeding group and season, feeding group and ice cover, and feeding group and maximum ice extent on the Baltic sea were all important (Table 2). However, the strongest effects were interactions with ice cover, then interaction with the season; this translates into increases in the importance of the site for bottom-feeders. The effect of maximum ice extent was very small (Table 2). Population indices in the ORE changed over the last 25 years, increased in the case of bottom-feeding species but decreased for piscivorous species (Table 2). Ice cover across the whole Baltic Sea had the same, though weak, impact on both functional groups of birds, numbers of birds in the ORE declined with expanding ice cover in the Baltic (Table 2).
|Model Term
|Std. Error
|Ice cover
|Max ice
|Ice cover*Feed[B]
|Max ice*Feed[B]
|Species (r)
|Method (r)
|Month (r)
Where particular species are concerned, the situation is more complex. The population indices of Scaup and Tufted Duck in the ORE exhibited an increasing trend (βScaup = 0.026 ± 0.010s.e., p = 0.011; however for Tufted Duck it was marginally insignificant β = 0.008 ± 0.004 s.e., p = 0.058), despite the general decline in their entire northern and western European populations; numbers of both species in the ORE were adversely affected by ice cover in that region (βScaup = − 0.065 ± 0.011s.e., p < 0.001; βTufted = 0.032 ± 0.005s.e., p < 0.001) but not by ice cover in the whole Baltic (βScaup = − 0.099 ± 0.074s.e., p = 0.186; βTufted = 0.010 ± 0.029s.e., p = 0.735). Relative numbers of Pochard in the ORE have declined (β = − 0.009 ± 0.003s.e., p = 0.005), but so has the whole northern European population, abundance was negatively impacted by ice cover in both the study area (β = − 0.015 ± 0.003s.e., p < 0.001); and in the entire Baltic (β = − 0.053 ± 0.023s.e., p = 0.023). For Goldeneye, the index for the ORE population was unchanged (β = − 0.004 ± 0.004s.e., p = 0.275), despite the increase in the European population, abundance was negatively impacted by ice cover in the study area (β = − 0.016 ± 0.004s.e., p < 0.001), but not by ice cover in the entire Baltic (β = − 0.044 ± 0.027s.e., p = 0.107). Relative numbers of Coot in the ORE remained unchanged (β < 0.001 ± 0.002s.e., p = 0.915), despite the slight increase in the European population, abundance was negatively impacted by ice cover in both the study area (β = − 0.014 ± 0.003s.e., p < 0.001), and in the entire Baltic (β = − 0.038 ± 0.016s.e., p = 0.019). The ORE population index for Smew decreased (β = − 0.020 ± 0.008s.e., p = 0.024), despite the increase in its flyway population, abundance in the ORE was unaffected by ice cover either in the study area (β = − 0.013 ± 0.010s.e., p = 0.183), or in the Baltic as a whole (β = − 0.079 ± 0.061s.e., p = 0.204). Finally, relative numbers of Goosander in the ORE remained unchanged (β = − 0.005 ± 0.008s.e., p = 0.572), like those of the whole population wintering in north-western and central Europe; abundance in the ORE was unaffected by ice cover either in the study area (β = 0.018 ± 0.009s.e., p = 0.063) or in the Baltic as a whole (β = − 0.111 ± 0.057s.e., p = 0.057). The details relating to all these species are listed in Table 1, presented in Fig. 2A and Table S3. Table 3 summarizes the changes in the importance of the ORE for wintering populations of diving waterbirds in the last 25 years. There was a negative relationship between year and winter ice (βintercept = 82.011, s.e. = 28.49, βwinter = − 00.40, s.e. = 0.0142, Chi-square = 8.001, df = 1, p = 0.005; Fig. 2B).
|Mean1992–2016 ± SE
|Trend in ORE
|Greater Scaup
|14.17 ± 2.84
|Tufted Duck
|2.61 ± 0.25
|Common Goldeneye
|1.21 ± 0.14
|Eurasian Coot
|0.61 ± 0.07
|6.85 ± 1.01
|7.01 ± 1.27
|Common Pochard
|0.62 ± 0.09
The phenomenon of freezing in our study area has decreased over time (Girjatowicz, 2011, Fig. 2B), so that target birds species should tend to feed more recently more often than in the past. However, two functional groups of waterbirds—bottom-feeders and piscivores—react differently to ice cover, a factor that is directly connected to climate change; this has consequences for the wintering patterns of these species. Bottom-feeding birds (Scaup, Tufted Duck, Pochard, Goldeneye, and Coot) tend to be more sensitive to ice cover in the study area than piscivores (Smew and Goosander). Piscivores can survive in colder areas, closer to their breeding ranges, but bottom-feeders have to move further south and west. This phenomenon indicates that piscivores are declining in our study site because they are shifting further north and east in order to stay closer to their breeding areas. Bottom-feeders are increasing their number for the same reason—they, too, are moving further north and east—but in their case, the result is a greater number in our study area and a smaller one in areas further west and south. Bottom-feeding birds forage in the ORE mainly on mussels of the genus Dreissena (Marchowski et al., 2015; Marchowski, Jankowiak & Wysocki, 2016); the highest quality of this food resource is found in water 1–2 m deep (Wolnomiejski & Witek, 2013). Shallow water freezes over faster, displacing birds to deeper unfrozen areas where food is accessible only with difficulty. In addition, when ice cover is present, the abundance of food in unfrozen areas declines owing to its greater exploitation, because the birds congregate on a limited area. In the case of piscivorous birds, increasing ice cover does not affect their numbers negatively. The ORE is never completely covered by ice: the shipping lane between Świnoujście and Szczecin is kept free of ice (Girjatowicz, 1990; Girjatowicz, 2005), and there are always other areas free of ice, especially at the mouths of the small rivers flowing into the estuary. These ice-free areas may still abound in fish and provide food for piscivores. In general, there is growing importance of the study area for the bottom-feeders. The main analysis jointly examines two whole groups—piscivores and bottom-feeders; the results of it are the positive effect of not freezing for bottom-feeders and negative effect for piscivores, and also a positive effect of the season for bottom-feeders, and negative effect for piscivores (see Table 2). In the other analysis, which examined each species separately, there are differences between them (see Fig. 2A). As far as the most numerous species—Scaup and Tufted Duck—are concerned, the results tally with those of the first analysis, i.e., their numbers are increasing (correlation with season). For the less abundant species, the result of the second analysis is different: Pochard numbers, for example, are decreasing (negative effect). In the first analysis, abundance and season were negatively correlated in piscivores. In the second analysis, in which we examined species separately, abundance and season were independent in the Goosander, while abundance and season were negatively correlated in the Smew. In fact, the strongest effect of the first years of the study relates to the piscivores, especially Smew. If we take the entire period (1992–2016), the Smew declines in numbers (confer with model results), which was due to their being very abundant in the early 1990s. From 2002–2016, Smew numbers are stable.
An interesting result is the negative effect of maximum ice cover in the entire Baltic Sea on the numbers of all species in our study. This is unexpected since our study area is in the warmer south-western Baltic, where one would anticipate an increase in the number of waterbirds in such circumstances (Alerstam, 1990). The explanation for this relationship is not easy and certainly goes far beyond the scope of this work, but we can speculate on possible scenarios. On maps with the maximum range of ice cover in the Baltic Sea we can see clearly that when the northern Baltic, i.e., the Gulf of Bothnia and the Gulf of Finland, is completely frozen over, the entire Pomeranian Bay (SW Baltic) (see the map—Fig. 1) together with the ORE is also covered with ice (Finnish Meteorological Institute, 2017). These areas freeze over quickly because of their shallowness and low salinity, the latter being due to the considerable influence of fresh water from the Odra river basin. Consequently, during harsh winters, birds from northern Baltic move to the south and west, but they by-pass our study area as it is covered by ice. Under such circumstances, there may sometimes be better conditions for waterbirds in areas farther north, e.g., the southern coast of Sweden, where there is no ice cover (Finnish Meteorological Institute, 2017). Worth noting here, however, is that such cold weather causing the entire Pomeranian Bay and Odra River Estuary to freeze over is rare and becoming rarer (EEA-The European Environment Agency, 2017).
The global temperature has risen about 1°C over the last 130 years, and Northern Hemisphere temperatures of the last 30 years have been the highest in over 800 years (Stocker et al., 2013). The extent and duration of ice cover in the Baltic have decreased on average by 50% over the last 36 years (Schröder, 2015). There is evidence that the range and occurrence of migratory birds have changed in response to climate change and that some species have shortened their migratory movements by wintering closer to their breeding areas (Musil et al., 2011; Lehikoinen et al., 2013; Pavón-Jordan et al., 2015; Meller, 2016). Assuming continued climate warming, the negative correlation between numbers of bottom-feeding birds and the number of days with ice cover indicates that the ORE is becoming more important for this group of birds. Climate change seems to be the primary reason for increases (in the study area) in numbers of Scaup and Tufted Duck and decreases in numbers of Smew; this corresponds with the findings of Lehikoinen et al. (2013) in the case of Tufted Duck and of Pavón-Jordan et al. (2015) in the case of Smew. Our results are important for conservation planning. Declines in the flyway populations of species such as Scaup and Tufted Duck, even though the importance of our study area to these species is increasing, but at the same time, there is an increase in exposure to locally emerging threats. The biggest threats to these species in the area include fishery bycatches (Žydelis et al., 2009; Bellebaum et al., 2012). The ecology of diving birds makes this type of threat responsible for the extra mortality of all species covered by this study. Comparison of a species' estimated total population numbers (Nagy, Flink & Langendoen, 2014) with numbers for the ORE is interesting, since local trends and European trends do not always concur. The different responses of particular species to the factors investigated are also worth examining. We grouped the species by trends in the study area and discuss these for each species below.
Species with increasing population index in the study area
Between the late 1980s and 2012, the population of Scaup wintering in northern and western Europe declined at an annual rate of 3.57%/year (Nagy, Flink & Langendoen, 2014). Around 41% of the Scaup from this population spent the winter in the Baltic Sea region (Skov et al., 2011), and this, in turn, declined by 60% from 1991 to 2010 (Aunins et al., 2013). At the same time, we found that the importance of the ORE for this species was increasing. Scaup numbers increased by 300% in the Szczecin Lagoon (the biggest part of Odra River Estuary—see the map—Fig. 1) and the eastern coastal areas of Germany, as opposed to declines further west along the German coast, where some areas (Wismar Bay and Traveförde) had fewer birds than 15 years earlier (Skov et al., 2011). A similar trend was found in Sweden, where the number of wintering Scaup increased between 1971 and 2015 (Nilsson & Haas, 2016). But farther west, in the Netherlands, Hornman et al. (2012) recorded decreases at the most important wintering sites since 1980/1981. All of these studies confirm that Scaup is shifting its wintering range northwards and eastwards, closer to its breeding areas: this is the reason for the heightened importance to this species of the ORE, even as its overall population wintering in northern and western Europe is declining.
Tufted Duck populations wintering in north-western Europe have recently been decreasing by 0.98%/year (Nagy, Flink & Langendoen, 2014). The population estimated for the North-West Europe flyway remained relatively stable between 1987 and 2009 (Lehikoinen et al., 2013), a situation confirmed by Wetlands International (2016). In the Baltic Sea region, too, there were no significant changes in numbers between 1991 and 2010 (Aunins et al., 2013). We have found that our study area has increased in importance for this species, although not to the same extent as for Scaup. Swedish populations, by comparison, have increased between 1971 and 2015 (Nilsson & Haas, 2016), and Lehikoinen et al. (2013) reported a rapid increase in the last three decades for Finland. Tufted Ducks in the ORE behave in the same way as Scaup in that they form mixed flocks consuming the same type of food (Marchowski, Jankowiak & Wysocki, 2016). At a larger scale, Tufted Ducks have a different migration and wintering strategy: Scaup concentrate in a few hot spots, moving jump-wise between them, whereas the distribution of Tufted Ducks is more diffuse (Van Erden & De Leeuw, 2010; Skov et al., 2011; Neubauer et al., 2015; Carboneras & Kirwan, 2016a; Carboneras & Kirwan, 2016b). This could cause Tufted Ducks to disperse to smaller water bodies outside our study area, e.g., the numerous lakes in the Pomeranian Lake District in northern Poland (∼34,000 km2), whereas Scaup remains almost exclusively in the ORE (e.g., Marchowski & Ławicki, 2011; Marchowski, Ławicki & Guentzel, 2013). Scaup is known to concentrate in big flocks during migration and wintering, and the whole flyway population may be concentrated in a few hot-spots such the ORE (De Leeuw, 1999; Marchowski et al., 2015): this is important in the context of species conservation planning. There is an increase in the importance of the ORE for Scaup, but at the same time, there is an increase in exposure to locally emerging threats such as bycatches in fishing nets (Bellebaum et al., 2012). Taking into account the above pattern of Scaup behavior and our results, there is a justified fear that locally operating threats in the ORE may affect the entire flyway population of the species. This is one of the most important messages of our work.
Species with decreasing population index in the study area
Pochard populations from north-east/north-west Europe have declined rapidly at an annual rate of 3.35%/year (Nagy, Flink & Langendoen, 2014). Pochard numbers in the Baltic Sea region also declined by 70% between 1991 and 2010 (Aunins et al., 2013). In 1995 there were an estimated 300,000 Pochard in the north-east/north-west European population (Delany et al., 1999). With a constant decline of 3.35%/year, the total population should now be less than 150,000 (Nagy, Flink & Langendoen, 2014). Numbers of Pochard were expected to be higher in the ORE because of the reduced ice cover. However, we found a reduction in the importance of the estuary to this species (Table 3), corresponding with its global decline (Aunins et al., 2013; Nagy, Flink & Langendoen, 2014; BirdLife International, 2015a; BirdLife International, 2015b; Wetlands International, 2016). Pochard behaves more like Tufted Duck than Scaup over winter in being more dispersed and occurring on smaller bodies of water (e.g., Marchowski & Ławicki, 2011; Marchowski, Ławicki & Guentzel, 2013; Neubauer et al., 2015). This implies that individuals may also be wintering outside the study area, e.g., on the numerous water bodies of the Pomeranian Lake District, like Tufted Duck. This local decline, however, seems to be driven by the species' global decline, despite the emergence of better conditions for wintering that might favor population growth.
Smew populations wintering in northern, western and central Europe increased at 1.97%/year between the late 1980s and 2012 (Nagy, Flink & Langendoen, 2014); in the Baltic Sea region, numbers increased by 30% between 1991 and 2010 (Aunins et al., 2013). Although Smew cannot be classified as a piscivore in the same way as Goosander (and Red-breasted Merganser M. serrator), it does feed on very small fish and on small invertebrates (Carboneras & Kirwan, 2016c). Though more dependent on shallow water than Goosander, Smew generally forages on mobile types of food. So even if shallow waters freeze over, it may remain on site and search for food in deeper water, which is what we have observed. We found that today, the ORE is of less importance to Smew (Table 3) as illustrated by the northward and eastward shift in wintering area boundaries due to climate warming (Pavón-Jordan et al., 2015; Nilsson & Haas, 2016).
Species with no changes in the population index in the study area
Coot populations wintering in north-west Europe increased by 0.19%/year between the late 1980s and 2012 (Nagy, Flink & Langendoen, 2014), but in the Baltic region, there was a 60% decline between 1991 and 2010 (Aunins et al., 2013). We have found no changes in Coot numbers in the ORE over the last 25 years (Table 3). Likewise, no changes in numbers were recorded between 1975 and 2010 at wintering sites in warmer areas to the south-west (the Netherlands) (Hornman et al., 2012). Long-term figures for Sweden (1971–2015), while not revealing any distinct increase, do show that Coot populations fluctuated, rising during mild periods and falling during cold periods (Nilsson & Haas, 2016). The expected increase in numbers due to improvements in habitat quality did not happen. Factors such as pressure from American mink Neovison vison, which is responsible for the decline of Coot in many places (e.g., Ferreras & Macdonald, 1999), may have held back potential increases. Moreover, compared to the bottom-diving Ducks, Coot is more sensitive to cold weather: a study by Fredrickson (1969) demonstrated high mortality after periods of severe weather (also reflected in the results of Swedish breeding bird surveys—Leif Nilsson, pers. comm., 2017) but that the population recovered during mild winters. This factor may also be the reason for the different reactions of Coot and diving ducks to the cold.
Goldeneye populations wintering in north-west and central Europe increased at 0.26%/year between the late 1980s and 2012 (Nagy, Flink & Langendoen, 2014) and increased in the Baltic Sea region by 50% between 1991 and 2010 (Aunins et al., 2013). This corresponds to the data provided by Lehikoinen et al. (2013), an increase in numbers in the northern Baltic wintering area (Finland and N Sweden), but a decline in the southern part of its wintering range (Switzerland, France). In our work, we found the relative number of Goldeneye in the ORE to be stable in the period 1992–2016 (Table 3). This again tallies with the findings of Lehikoinen et al. (2013) that duck abundances are independent of temperature in the central part of the flyway. This is probably why the shift in wintering range is not perceptible in our study area but is more pronounced at other, e.g., Swedish wintering sites, where numbers have increased (Nilsson & Haas, 2016) but not in the Netherlands, where they have declined (Hornman et al., 2012).
Goosander populations wintering in north-west and central Europe have been stable since the early 1990s (Nagy, Flink & Langendoen, 2014); moreover, numbers in the Baltic Sea between 1991 and 2010 did not change significantly (Aunins et al., 2013); we also found non-significant changes in the ORE.(Table 3). As in the case of Goldeneye, the explanation is that in the central part of the flyway, species abundances are independent of temperature. In other areas, observations indicate a shift farther to the north and east in the wintering range as a result of climate warming (Hornman et al., 2012; Lehikoinen et al., 2013; Nilsson & Haas, 2016).
Climate change can influence the distribution of overwintering waterbirds. Apart from climate changes, however, feeding ecology, interspecific competition, fishery and other human-related disturbance may be also important and should be taken into consideration (Quan, Wen & Yang, 2002; Žydelis et al., 2009; Clavero, Villero & Brotons, 2011; Eglington & Pearce-Higgins, 2012). Protected areas covered by our study will be more important for some species (Scaup and Tufted Duck) but less so for others (Smew). Taking into account the large abundance of the target species regularly present in the ORE, conservation measures applied here will have a large impact on entire populations and will be particularly important for Scaup. Shifts in species distributions should be accounted for in future management plans for Special Protection Areas of the European Natura 2000 network. Our results add new insight to the problem of wintering waterbirds protection and can help to shape conservation policy in the southern Baltic.
Supplemental Information
Raw data
A, date of count; B, season of count; C, species; D, month of count; E, number of days with 100% ice cover 15 days prior to count; F, mean daily temp. 15 days prior to count; G, mean max. temp. 15 days prior to count; H, mean min.temp.15 days prior to count; I, feeding group: B-bottom-feeders, P-piscivorous; J, count method: A - aerial, L - terrrestrial; K, maximum ice cover in the Baltic in thousand km2; L, [ =(Mx/Nx)*100]; M, Count results; N, Size of population in a given season.
Ranking of general linear mixed models showing the influence of ice cover, maximum ice extent [kmtsup2] in the Baltic Sea (max ice) and season on the percentages of the population of the target species in the Odra River Estuary
The models were ranked using the Akaike information criterion (AIC). Δ AIC represents the difference between each model and the best-fit model. wi –Akaike weight (indicating model probabilities); df, –degrees of freedom. The terms in the models are represented by numbers: 1 –feed, 2 –ice cover, 3 –max ice, 4 –season, 5 –ice cover*feed, 6 –max ice*feed, 7 –season*feed.
Results of general linear mixed models showing the influence of ice cover, maximum ice extent [km2] in the Baltic Sea (max ice) and season on the percentages of the population of the target species in the Odra River Estuary
The parameters show the interaction between season and species, ice cover and species, max ice and species. The interaction parameters species*season, species*ice cover, species*max ice were used to predict the values presented in Fig. 2.
Trend of flyway population (2) and impact of covariates (3-5) on the dependent variable –the ratio of the percentage of the numbers of a given species in the study area to the estimated total flyway population in a given year
(1) Target species, (2) trend of flyway population after Nagy, Flink & Langendoen, 2014; (3) direction of population index change in the ORE; (4) impact of ice cover in the ORE on the dependent variable; (5) impact of ice cover in the whole Baltic on the dependent variable.


text: Wow it is happening! We are finally getting our website together. It has been a long process. I know many have missed our wonderful teas. Now is your time to stock up. I will blog health ideas with tea and recipes, new ideas on the market, and of course keep you up-to-date on what is happening in the tea world. Please e-mail me if you have questions or would like a topic covered. Thanks for being here!


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11am - 11:30am
Source : Today Newspaper
Page 4
'China Building second aircraft carrier : Reports'
What I learned :
I learned that China is building
their own aircraft carrier.
Usually Aircraft carrier's are bought, but China is trying to build one on its own. Soon, China would have at least 4 carriers defending their growing economy and enlarge their blue-water navy. This was all because over the past few years China's military budget has increased.
China's first aircraft carrier is called 'Liaoning'.
American aircraft carriers can desalinate 400,000 gallons of water per day.
The command center structure that rises above the flight deck on an aircraft carrier is called "the island".
Source : 20 Interesting facts about Aircraft Carriers
Source : 20 Interesting facts about Aircraft Carriers
Summary :
China building their own aircraft carrier is a new approach to increase a country's military strength. Since it not only saves the cost but also it doesn't need to be transported all around after its finished. Soon I believe most countries will take up this technique and soon build their own military force.


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About us/Objectives
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SERUG Structure, Committee and Stakeholders
West of England route map
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Blackmore Vale Community Rail Partnership
Campaign For Better Transport
Yeovil to London – Return ticket tops £200 !
Yeovil to London – Return ticket tops £200 !
Nick Hurrell
Dec 9, 2016
Jan 22, 2018
The recent problems with signalling and defective stock have led to a number of lengthy delays/cancellations to services on the Waterloo to Exeter line.
An increasing number of people now commute regularly (ie at peak times) to London. Those who leave before 6.30am may be aware that there is an alternative service from Yeovil Pen Mill to London at 06.20 (Arriving Paddington via Castle Cary at 08.38). What many people will not be aware of is the astronomical fare charged by GWR for this route. From January 2017 the Anytime return fare will rise to a whopping £204. That's almost double the fare on South West Trains!
At times of disruption, the SWT tickets are normally valid from Pen Mill but we strongly advise you to check the SWT website first. We hear tales of guards on the GWR service trying to charge travellers the excess fare – because they had not been advised of the arangmement to accept SWT tickets. If you do choose to use the 6.20 service when SWT trains are disrupted, ensure you buy your tickets at Yeovil Junction and then drive to Pen Mill. If you buy your ticket at Pen Mill – you are likely to be charged the GWR fare!
Commendation for SERUG
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Never Look Down
Mother and Son Author Book to Empower Children with Dystonia
It takes a pretty special kid to view being diagnosed with a neurological disorder as an opportunity to contribute something positive to the world. But that's how then 12-year-old Zachary Weinstein responded to developing dystonia. Zachary and his mother Alyssa Dver wrote a new book entitled Never Look Down in partnership with the Dystonia Medical Research Foundation (DMRF) so that other children like Zachary feel empowered, not diminished, by this illness. The title is taken from Zachary's personal motto for overcoming obstacles.
"Dystonia is a hurdle," says Zachary. "I'll continue to be confronted with it many times, but each and every time I'll have to overcome it. My advice for other kids is--as I like to say--'never look down.' Keep going and you'll find a way to do anything you want."
Click here to view interview with Zachary and Alyssa about Never Look Down.
Never Look Down provides newly diagnosed children and their families a simple way to understand dystonia - what the symptoms may be and how it can affect everyday life. The book also provides a variety of resources that can help people with dystonia, their friends, and family members to be better informed and cope with this chronic disorder.
There are several forms of dystonia that typically begin in childhood, including primary and secondary forms. Zachary's parents consulted a string of doctors before their son was correctly diagnosed. "Looking back," recalls Alyssa, "we were so numb. We didn't know what was happening with Zak, and it was scary. Ironically, now we feel gifted. Even though we have to go through this, we are able to help other families because we know where they have been."
If a child in your family is impacted by dystonia, you may be eligible to receive a copy of Never Look Down at no charge. Supplies are limited so please contact the DMRF at 312-755-0198 or email@example.com
Accelerating Research & Inspiring Hope
The Dystonia Medical Research Foundation (DMRF) has served the dystonia community since 1976. Join us in our global effort to find a cure.


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01 - 05 April
Amohr Technische Textilien
AMOHR Technische Textilien GmbH is beyond just theory and entered into practice since more than 20 years with conductive textiles. They work on combining textile and conductive materials in their narrow fabrics. Whilst heat-resistance, textile grip, elasticity and colour are mainly defined by the textile component, mostly metallic strands are used as conductors. Theymay be insulated or not and will be chosen according to their conductivity for each individual project.In conductive textiles AMOHR offers narrow fabrics of up to 600mm width i.e. in following fields:- elastic and non-elastic, insulated and non-insulated flat-conductors- Textile Stretch-Sensors- Textile Pressure-Sensors- Self-adhesive Humidity-Sensors- spread electrodes with textile grip- textile heaters- antistatic-tapes
Key Technologies and New Materials
This textile sensor offers a nice signal of elongation when combined with the relevant elelctronic.
Our sophisticated AMOTAPES®-wrapping-tapes used in vulcanization of rubber are made from high tenacity, heat-resistant Nylon 6.6, Cotton, Meta-Aramid or PPS. We ...
Woven tapes for insulation of electric motors and generators, made of Polyester, Nylon, NOMEX and Glass. Heat resistant according to class H.
Stored items


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The Book Art Collective were delighted to have an opportunity of seeing the Book Art Exhibits last night at their meeting. Although many of us had seen them before, there is so much to see in the show that it was great to have another look. Jane, Carolina and Dorry gave us a talk each about their pieces of work and we had some discussion about making books, working collaboratively on book projects, the features of book arts that are special and much more ....
This is some us being treated to a lovely talk about book-y things last night.
After a good look round and many remarks of delight, we retired to do some practical things. Suzanne provided us with some great resources and there was much folding, glue-ing, cutting and lots of other messy stuff which finished off the evening very well!
Our next meeting will be held at INK SPOT PRESS on Tuesday 21 May, 2013. See you there!


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REPLACE: You'll probably fly Air Transat, as a result of Skyservice went out of enterprise (think about that eh). You would possibly need to think about reserving Air Transat's Club Class for extra seating room.
Then again, there have been a lot more nice people who had been all the time willing to lend a hand or hold a door. I really appreciated their kindness. One girl almost missed the present whereas attempting to assist me get the scooter in a decent spot. She didn't though and I was glad for that, but it surely exhibits how helpful individuals can be as well. In case you are in the principle area of Hollywood Studios, close to the Chinese language Theater, attempt the bathrooms to your left, behind the American Idol theater. They're kind of hidden in a recess (you have to take stairs all the way down to get to them) and so many individuals miss them.
Each the native and tourists love spending their activities in there. Having siesta in certainly one of these is especially the favorite for the tourists. With recent winds breezing by the cottages and mild waves are heard beneath you'd be capable to sleep in no time. Shortly after the net began, Leonard Nimoy was horrified to discover he had did not destroy all evidence of this music video. He bought the website shut down, nevertheless it was too late. The cat was out of the bag and the video started popping up in all places.
I also remember the moaning of the foghounds of the ships that have been anchored ready to be called into the docks! This fast-service, cafeteria type restaurant appears like a movie-studio prop store. They have choices that are a bit more healthy than among the other locations within the park. This lake got its identify from William H. Murray who was lively in politics even earlier than Oklahoma took on the mantle of statehood. The Boardwalk is unique in that it has a number of outlets, cafes, and nightlife associated with the resort.
A lot of the blacks are in direction of Col del Pam as well and they have been quite steep in locations with some short narrow sections, but not overly challenging and therefore my assertion that superior levels might not find sufficient right here to keep them occupied for any severe length of time. The main danger in driving some of these autos is a placental abruption which signifies that the placenta either partially or utterly separates from the uterus. This could happen after 20 weeks of being pregnant and may cause demise to both the fetus and the mother.


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I am writing in regards to the "Farbar Recovery Scan Tool", which seems to be distributed primarily through your website, as I cannot seem to find direct contact details for the program's author. Your program appears to contains code from the AutoIt-WinHTTP library at https://github.com/dragana-r/autoit-winhttp and you have not complied with the terms of the library's Apache Licence which requires that
"4. You may reproduce and distribute copies of the Work or Derivative Works thereof in any medium, with or without modifications, and in Source or Object form, provided that You meet the following conditions:
- You must give any other recipients of the Work or Derivative Works a copy of this License; and
- You must cause any modified files to carry prominent notices stating that You changed the files; and
- You must retain, in the Source form of any Derivative Works that You distribute, all copyright, patent, trademark, and attribution notices from the Source form of the Work, excluding those notices that do not pertain to any part of the Derivative Works."
In your case, I do not see anywhere where you provide a copy of the Apache Licence on the download page for the "Farbar Recovery Scan Tool", so you are breaching condition 4(a). Therefore please could you take steps to remedy the matter as soon as possible.


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Convert and transfer Blu-ray movies to Asus ZenPad S 8.0
Can I play Blu-ray movis on my new Asus ZenPad S 8.0? I can't copy the purchased Blu-ray disc to this tablet. How to deal this problem?
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Once a year, we get together with hundreds of teenagers from across Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine! Youth Convention is a gathering of young people coming together once per year to seek God to renew us, revive us and lead us to change our communities for Christ. Every year we focus on the teen as an individual and do our best to equip them with the tools they need to be the best they can!
This year, we are blessed to have Nate Clarke, nationwide speaker, speaking with us as well as the Restoration Church Band with special guest Rachel Lord, 2-time National Fine Arts Winner, leading us in worship!


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I smile everytime I see Drake shut the haters up.
Who knew?! Who knew?! Who knew the dude from a hit Canadian teen series would be ruling the airwaves?!
Remixes have been popping up all over the place to Marvin's Room but for me the original is still the only one I feel has the most passion and hurt.
This song exemplifies the struggles of wanting a pure unconditional love in your life but not being able to say no the endless amount of women throwing themselves upon you.
Every girl who listens to this song shouldn't just be hearing Drake swoon in her ear but instead hear her current bf or ex bf reveal his soul to her.
"I need you right now are you down to listen to me……I'm lucky that you stayed home, I need someone to put this weight on".


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I would just like to congratulate all the people who took part in the Mixed Media Challenge over the past week. Your work i am sure has inspired lots of scrappers to have a go with the 'no holds barred' approach with Mixed Media artwork and how to incorporate it into your scrapbooking.
Leading on from my set challenge i thought we would look at the clear embellishment that i created for the album. The thought behind this was to create a pocket to hold my creation.
With my creation I created an ATC sized card that I stamped, colored in the birds with watercolors and used a rub-on the enhance. I then created a pocket by folding a piece of clear acetate in half and taping the card inside beside stitching all the way around.
On the opposite side ( the green basic grey paper with the believe sticker) i enhanced the card by leaving the patterned paper and adding the sticker and the buttons to the outside of the acetate - this helped hide my tape to adhere the page to the acetate and enhanced the patterned side.
thanks for running through the process... have a great creative week


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|Crenel is a Crypter word. Crypter point value for crenel: 8 points.
|Crenel is a Words with Friends word. Words with Friends point value for crenel: 8 points.
Above are the results of unscrambling crenel. Using the word generator and word Decrypter for the letters C R E N E L, we Decrypt d the letters to create a list of all the words found in Crypter, Words with Friends, and Text Twist. We found a total of 20 words by unscrambling the letters in crenel. Click these words to find out how many points they are worth, their definitions, and all the other words that can be made by unscrambling the letters from these words. If one or more words can be Decrypt d with all the letters entered plus one new letter, then they will also be displayed.
1. a notch or open space between two merlons in a crenelated battlement
|Words that start with crenel
|Words that end with crenel
|Words that contain crenel


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Wednesday, December 5, 2012
John 10:7, 9-10
"Therefore Jesus said again, "Very truly I tell you, I am the gate for the sheep. I am the gate; whoever enters through me will be saved. They will come in and go out, and find pasture. The thief comes only to steal and kill and destroy; I have come that they may have life, and have it to the full." John 10:7, 9-10 from BibleGateway.com
Posted by EM MAJ_COM at 6:00:00 AM
Labels: Acknowledgement, Bible, Jesus, Jesus Christ, John, Verse of the Day
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Discussion in 'Application Software' started by greenmachine, Nov 19, 2010.
Has anyone else had this happen? It was up and running for a couple weeks.
I think freestyler forbids CS5 stuff and troubleshooting. There is already thread here but it's closed
C:\Program Files\Common Files\Adobe\Adobe PCD\
Delete cache.db file
then re-enter your serialnumber


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Free dirty chat sites south africa
21-Jul-2017 20:47
I came across comments body-shaming many of the women who appear in the photographs and video clips.
Just scrolling through Kingtblak's Instagram page reveals comments like: "That fat girl looks dirty", "As her life don spoil finish, so wetin her real husband gangan go do," and "Please is it that this ladies dem be bastard or orphans... am not understanding hoo." Many more commentators seem to be insulting the actresses rather than Kingtblak himself.
Therefore porn production in Nigeria is very, very underground.
I have heard suggestions from sources in the Nollywood industry that production thrives in small cities outside Lagos, such as Enugu in the South-East and Taraba and Zamfara in the North of the country, to avoid suspicion from authorities.
With the profit from his business, he provides for his daughter.
As a young Nigerian man who wants to 'live people's dreams while making money from it', Kingtblak is the sole actor in his videos.
Indeed, it has been suggested that Nigerians search for more pornographic content online than Americans.
Yet, the general attitude is that porn is toxic and harmful.
Homemade in Naija Technically speaking, making porn is illegal in Nigeria. Online forums have mentioned a proposed law to ban porn websites but there is nothing concrete.
He also shoots, edits, markets and runs the website on his own.
Along with his Twitter and Instagram accounts, where he posts 'behind the scenes' shots of his amateur porn videos, Kingtblak runs Hoc Hub, a website in the style of Porn Hub, where users can pay to watch his videos.
And if sex sells, it also definitely draws a crowd.
Followers of these Twitter sites range from the thousands to the tens of thousands.
Three years ago, when Nigerian actress Afrocandy released her sexually explicit film Destructive Instinct, she was quick to insist that her movie was not pornographic.


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From Bugzilla Helper:
User-Agent: Mozilla/5.0 (X11; U; Linux i686; en-US; rv:1.0.1) Gecko/20020809
Description of problem:
Dont know if it is a problem of gcc or kernel. When try to do make bzimage i got
an error (something about va_list).
Version-Release number of selected component (if applicable):
How reproducible:
Steps to Reproduce:
2.make clean; make dep
3.make bzimage
Additional info:
1) what kernel
2) what gcc
3) where
4) did you do a make mrproper
kernel 2.4.18-11
gcc 3.2
i didnt do a make mrproper
after trying again and making mrproper i got the same error. Also i noticed that
make dep complains about a file not found (stdarg.h), but the file is in an
include dir from gcc.
I can compile the kernel-source stuff just fine here.....
(and it better, since the binary kernels we ship are compiled from that ;)
Thanks for the bug report. However, Red Hat no longer maintains this version of
the product. Please upgrade to the latest version and open a new bug if the problem
The Fedora Legacy project (http://fedoralegacy.org/) maintains some older releases,
and if you believe this bug is interesting to them, please report the problem in
the bug tracker at: http://bugzilla.fedora.us/