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Appointments 1.800.543.7362
Care at 8 locations
Lurie Children's Division of Pulmonary and Sleep Medicine treats more children for lung and breathing-related (respiratory) diseases than any other hospital in Illinois. We are ranked 18th in the nation by U.S.News & World Report for pediatric pulmonary care, including asthma care.
We believe in family-centered care, which means we care for the whole family along with the patient and involve the whole family in a patient's treatment plan. From bringing family members into care plan meetings, to providing support and distraction to a patient's siblings, we do our best to help fit our care into your lifestyle. We offer many helpful family services.
A multidisciplinary team of experienced healthcare providers will care for your child. This team approach makes it easier for you to see every specialist your child needs under one roof and often in the same visit.
Our clinical care includes a full-service pulmonary physiology laboratory with state-of-the-art diagnostic testing. We are the only regional pulmonary service offering infant pulmonary function tests. The division offers many opportunities for patients to take part in clinical trials studying new treatments. We are a Therapeutics Development Network Center for the Cystic Fibrosis Foundation and a site for the Asthma Clinical Research Network and Asthmanet. Our physicians and scientists conduct many types of research that are improving the diagnosis and treatment of respiratory diseases.
In partnership with the Feinberg School, our division offers a pediatric pulmonology fellowship, one of only two accredited training programs for pediatric pulmonology in Chicago. This program teaches physicians the most effective ways of treating children with lung and breathing-related disorders.
Our team has developed specialized programs to treat certain conditions in the most comprehensive way possible.Browse our programs
We take specialized and evidence-based approaches to diagnosing and treating children's lung-related conditions.View a List of conditions
Our entire staff is dedicated to evaluating and treating infants, children and teenagers. The team includes:
Pulmonologists also work with other experts at Lurie Children's, including:
Division Head, Terri Laguna, MD, MSCS, is a board-certified pediatric pulmonologist with more than 15 years of experience in her field. She is also Director of the Cystic Fibrosis Center at Lurie Children's and is an Associate Professor of Pediatrics at Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine.
Learn more about our specialists
Our multidisciplinary approach to care means that we consult with specialists from multiple hospital divisions — as many as it takes to get a complete and comprehensive treatment plan for your child.
If you'd like to schedule an appointment with one of our specialists, call 1.800.543.7362 (1.800.KIDS.DOC®) or visit our Appointments page for more information.
The Division of Pulmonary Medicine actively engages in several research projects.
Keeping with our belief that quality education is inseparable from our quality patient care, we partner with Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine to train tomorrow's leading pediatric physicians. As the pediatric teaching hospital for the Feinberg School, we offer a fellowship for residents to further their education in a pediatric specialty.
Your support is vital in helping us continue to make a difference in the lives of patients and families. Lurie Children's relies on philanthropic funding to enhance its programs, services and research for children. To learn more, please e-mail the Ann & Robert H. Lurie Children's Hospital of Chicago Foundation at firstname.lastname@example.com or call 312.227.7500.


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KDCF Society was established to represent the voices of the community and groups interested in nature conservation and the preservation of forest recreational spaces. We work closely with the Selangor Forestry Department in seeking to develop our unique model of collaborative management of urban forest. We are only as strong as our member base. We believe that there may come a time when we need to stand together against potential threats in the form of pressure to degazette the Reserve for 'development'. By joining as a KDCF member you are adding to the numbers of others, who like you, care about this forest and will not hesitate to advocate for its protection and wise use. KDCF … [READ ON] about Membership
Main Content
Kota Damansara Community Forest Society
Kota Damansara Community Forest Society was established in 2011 to represent the community of concerned citizens and organizations that campaigned for its protection. Today, we remain deeply committed to protecting this precious forest and are closely involved in programmes to encourage people to connect to nature through recreation, nature appreciation, and voluntarism.
A precious refuge for nature in the city
Kota Damansara Community Forest is a remnant of the lowland dipterocarp forest that once cloaked Selangor. It covers just over 800 acres and is a precious refuge for flora and fauna and a much needed green lung for the urban population of Greater KL.
The forest trails of Kota Damansara forest are our pride and joy. They have been carefully designed and painstakingly constructed over many years by volunteers and Temuan Orang Asli in close consultation with the Selangor Forestry Department. So far, a total of 14 km of trails have been constructed in phases beginning with the Petaling Trail and Scouts Trail, followed by the Temuan Trail, Harmoni Trail, Sahabat Trail, and the Unity Trail which joined the access trails from the Section 9 forest entrance to the trails from Section 10. In 2017, the Serenity Trail and Salleh Trail were added to the network. The abovementioned trails are all built according to International Mountain Biking Association standards. The 3.5 km hiking loop (the Unity Peak and Denai Tiga Puteri trails) allows visitors to enjoy a panoramic view from the highest part of the Forest … [READ ON] about Trail network
Komoot Maps
Komoot is an amazing helpful hiking app which you can use to navigate the KDCF forest trails. There are many intersections and you can get confused. Track your location to ensure you are using the official trails and to avoid going off on phantom trails. And it is also great for sharing your experience with images and highlights!
Kota Damansara Community Forest Reserve offers some of the best hiking and trail running in the Greater KL area. The trails are well-maintained and quite well marked. The arrangement of the forest trails in a series of stacked loops, allows visitors … [READ ON] about Hiking and trail running
The majority of the forest trails of Kota Damansara Community Forest are built for multiple use by hikers as well as mountain bikers. This means the trails are built according to International Mountain Biking Association (IMBA) specifications for … [READ ON] about Mountain biking
There are numerous opportunities for individuals and groups to contribute their time and energy to supporting the Kota Damansara forest in ways that are fun, rewarding and do not require special skills and tools. Those interested in volunteering at … [READ ON] about Volunteering
"I'm an American expat, and this forest is my favourite place to be - I try to get there at least once a week. The reason I love KDCF more than any other place to hike in Klang Valley is because the trails are so well marked and they aren't too steep. I love spending time in the forest and know it wouldn't be possible without the hard work of several dedicated people. I'm truly grateful!"
Shari Wiemer
Essential items to bring with you to make your trip safe and enjoyable: Good pair of walking shoes. Water - at least 1 litre of water. More, if you want to spend more time in the forest Torch light - for those who start their hikes later … [READ ON] about What to bring
On any trip into the forest it is good to bear in mind that you are entering a space with its own fully functioning ecosystem of flora and fauna. As responsible hikers or cyclists please endeavour to limit your impact and help keep this natural … [READ ON] about Responsible trail use
This is a natural forest, not a park. Anyone planning to go into the forest should always be mindful that safety is their responsibility and this is something that should be thought about. Here are some useful guidelines organized in alphabetical … [READ ON] about Safety

subset: commoncrawl


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1 cup chickpeas (canned or cooked—if using canned, just use the whole can).
1/4 cup Siggi's plain 0% or 4% yogurt
1/2 cup loosely packed kale leaves, torn into small pieces
Juice of 1/2 lemon
1-2 cloves garlic
1/8 cup extra virgin olive oil
Salt & pepper to taste
DirectionsRecipe courtesy: Siggi's
In a food processor, combine the chickpeas, yogurt, kale and garlic.
On low speed, slowly pour in the olive oil about 1 Tablespoon at a time, adding more as needed to reach a smooth consistency. Add the lemon juice and salt & pepper to taste, giving the hummus a final whirl in the food processor.
Delicious with fresh veggies or as a chip dip!
Yield: 6 servings
Nutrient Breakdown: Calories 80, Total Fat 5g (saturated fat 0.5g), Cholesterol 0mg, Sodium 250mg, Total Carbohydrates 7g, Fiber 3g, Protein 2.5g.


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Long strips of 100% natural, air-dried Fish Skin Jerky. Chewy and Abrasive so they make excellent toothbrushes and they're packed with all the healthy goodness and essential omega oils your dog needs.
Approx 23cm long.
Because this is a natural product, colour and size may vary.
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No memorial for Easton to mourn 9/11 losses
EASTON -- Jason Curtis wanted to take time Friday to remember the victims of the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. He'd grown up with Peter Hanson, an Easton native who perished with his wife and daughter on one of the planes that was flown by terrorists into the World Trade Center.
But eight years after the attacks, Curtis, who lives in Shelton now but whose parents still live in Easton, said he can't believe that Easton has not yet resolved its plans for an official memorial to the 9/11 victims.
"It's time for Easton to step up and honor the Hanson family," he said after nearly 20 Hanson friends, town residents and employees gathered at the Easton Library for a brief memorial ceremony. "Not only the Hanson family, but all the families," he said, referring to the thousands who lost their lives that day at the Twin Towers in New York City, the Pentagon outside Washington, D.C., and a field in Pennsylvania.
Members of the 9/11 Memorial Committee organized Friday's event, hoping that a display of the planned Easton memorial would help persuade the Planning and Zoning Commission to approve its recommended site in front of the library.
Although heavy rain -- so unlike the cloudless beauty of Sept. 11, 2001 -- forced the ceremony inside, scores of small flags outlined the spot on the library green where the memorial would be located under plans backed by the committee.
Though Friday's event was not the town's official 9/11 commemoration, which was held at Hanson's alma mater of Joel Barlow High School in Redding, Dr. Sal Santella, the committee chairman, said it was important for his panel and other supporters to make their case for their preferred memorial site by demonstrating that the design wouldn't intrude on the open feeling of the green.
"I hope that people see it's very low key," said Mark Halstead, the architect who designed the memorial.
The design includes a flagpole, which Halstead said he couldn't believe was absent from the site in front of a public building, as well as two low stone walls to symbolize the Twin Towers; three benches bearing the names of Peter Hanson, his wife Sue Kim, and daughter Christine; a pergola opening to the sky, and a plaque with an inscription from the late Easton resident Helen Keller.
Halstead said he specifically designed the memorial to be open to the sky, recalling the beauty of the day. He recalled driving over the George Washington Bridge from New Jersey that day when he saw a black cloud and wondered what was happening. "It was horrible," he said. "We could see it from Yonkers."
Santella and Halstead said the memorial would take only 37 feet of the library green's 150-foot length and 12.5 feet of its 45-foot width.
The proposed location, however, has encountered resistance, with some locals calling for the memorial be built on other sites. The PZC, which turned down an earlier plan last year, is expected to address the matter again Sept. 21.
In a brief message, the Rev. Thomas Driscoll of Notre Dame of Easton Church paid tribute not only to the more than 3,000 people killed eight years ago, but the emergency service workers who lost their lives responding to the attacks and those who have suffered residual effects.
Anne Fiyalka, an Easton resident who knows the Hansons, said she was home listening to a recitation of all the victims' names before she came to the local ceremony. "I just feel sorry for all the people who lost their dear ones," she said.


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Know your History Part 3 by Saptashree: Tipu Sultan is being hailed as the tiger of Mysore, the foremost of the freedom fighters and Tipu Jayanthi is being celebrated in the state government to commemorate his birth anniversary. But the question here is, does he really worth all the hype. Let's walk down the lanes of history to see why exactly he doesn't deserve all the heroism bestowed on him.
Tipu Sultan was a tyrant, earning the epithet of 'Aurangzeb of South' during his reign. He deliberately asked the French to colonise India to fight off the English. He was ok if India would be colonised by French. The most authentic accounts of his tyranny were the handwritten journals of Francois Fidele Ripaud de Montaudevert, who was sent by Napoleon Bonaparte to assist Tipu in fighting against the British.
It starts with these words (in old French): "I, Francois Ripaud, am old today, but I want to tell you the true story of Tipu Sultan." Another diary entry in which Ripaud is appalled at what he witnessed in Calicut (Kozhikode): "Most of the Hindu men and women were hanged, first mothers were hanged with their children tied to their necks. That barbarian Tipu Sultan tied the naked Christians and Hindus to the legs of elephants and made the elephants move around till the bodies of the helpless victims were torn to pieces. Temples and churches were ordered to be burned down, desecrated and destroyed.
Christian and Hindu women were forced to marry Mohammedans, and similarly, their men (after conversion to Islam) were forced to marry Mohammedan women. Christians who refused to be honoured with Islam were ordered to be killed by hanging immediately." These events were corroborated by Father Bartholomew, a famous Portuguese traveller, in his memoir, Voyage to East Indies.
Writes Sandeep Balakrishan in his book 'The Tyrant of Mysore'. The intensity of Tipu's raid was so terrifying that hundreds of temple priests fled to Mangalore along with their families. Worship came to a permanent halt in several temples. Some temples were covered with leaves in order to conceal their presence. The Maletirike Bhagavati temple at Virajpet is a good example of this.
Equally, the renowned Omkareshwara temple in Madikeri was about to meet the same fate — the then ruler at Madikeri panicked at the approach of Tipu, removed its tower and replaced it with a dome so that it looked like a mosque from afar. The temple continues to retain this appearance till date. In his raid of Napoklu near Madikeri, Tipu destroyed the temples in the surrounding villages of Betu and Kolakeri.
(Picture Source: ShankhNaad)
The fact that Tipu is being hailed as a pioneer of the Indian movement of independence is like rubbing salt to the wounds of the Kodavas, Coorg and Mysorean Brahmins. Since it is done for political gains where are we heading as a nation?


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Dainty mixed cut stone silver ring with garnet, peridot and amethyst.
Cut red garnet, green peridot and purple amethyst stones set in silver make this a dainty silver ring. Small and light and therefore easy to wear. Handmade in India. Soild silver and nickel free. 1.4 cm in height.
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Amethyst and Rainbow moonstone silver ring
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A dainty garnet and seed pearl hanging earring
A red cut garnet silver bracelet.


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graphic novel
At the convention last weekend one of the venders had 1 of the graphic novels. Which I have been wanting for years. It was 75 dollars for the one, (the seller said there was only one.). I considered getting, but decided it was not worth 75 dollars.
A couple of days later I saw the whole set of 3 on ebey for 20 dollar plus 4 dollars shipping. I am now waiting very patiently for them to get here. They said they were in excellent condition.
Will post pics. once they get here. Maybe Mon. or Tues.
Re: graphic novel
Oh yes! Please share the pictures!
Re: graphic novel
I'm glad you didn't overpay Mawra! Unless that first seller had had the 3-in-1 hardcover limited edition of the Dragonflight graphic novel, it certainly wasn't worth that price!
Re: graphic novel
That is what I thought. They also wanted 100 dollars for the cookbook Anne edited. I did not even think about buying that one.
Re: graphic novel
I wonder if those items sold? How exciting for you Maw, to find those graphic novels on ebay! And $100 for the cook book Anne edited!!!!! Well, I've got that. Forgotten where it came from but certainly not expensive
Re: graphic novel
Which cook book? "Cookery Out of This World" or "Serve it Forth"?
Re: graphic novel
"Cookery Out of This World," I wanted it, but I am not going to pay that much for a book, even if I had it.
Re: graphic novel
Mawra, again, on eBay you can get a double signed copy (Anne and John Betancourt) for less than $100! So a good thing you didn't buy it. You did right. always check in here before buying collectibles!
Re: graphic novel
I think they are at the post office, just waiting be picked up, and I could not get there today. If I did not already hate snow this would give me a reason to start.
Re: graphic novel
I've had the three graphics for years. They're right he.......... now where did I put those comics? *Walks away muttering about not being able to find things anymore.*
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Category Archives: KS3
In which I worry about differentiation in music education
I've seen a number of posts on twitter recently, and read some blog posts too, that argue that differentiation is a bad thing. I've been doing some head-scratching about this, as I've always maintained, and say to PGCE students, that … Continue reading
Posted in Curriculum, KS3, Music Education Tagged Differentiation 3 Comments
Bullseye! Target setting and target missing.
Or, a blog in which I get to say "Errr?" rather a lot! Target setting is currently back at number one as the biggest cause of concern that I am hearing about from music teachers. Now, I am going to … Continue reading
Posted in Assessment, GCSE, Grading, KS3, Music Education, Uncategorized Tagged assessment, Curriculum, progress, Teaching 3 Comments
Is curriculum music safe?
At the recent Music Mark conference, I had a slot to talk about current issues in music education. This blog entry is based on that presentation. For me, one of the big issues that's facing us is the reduction of … Continue reading
Posted in A level music exam, GCSE, KS3, Music Education Tagged Curriculum, Teaching 7 Comments
Tracking thoughts inspired by railway tracks on a train journey
I'm always concerned by how much duplication of effort there has been in music education from teachers up and down the land over the years. What is worrying me at the moment is that there seems to be a move … Continue reading
Posted in Assessment, Grading, KS3, Music Education Tagged assessment, attainment, flightpaths, Linear, Music Education, progress, tracking Leave a comment
Poster at ISME
I've been a bit on the busy side recently, which is, in many ways, an understatement! Anyway, last week I was up in Glasgow for the International Society of Music Education (ISME) conference. Whilst there I gave four spoken presentations, and … Continue reading
Posted in Assessment, KS3, Music Education, Uncategorized Tagged assessment, Curriculum, Music Education, Poster, progress Leave a comment
Assessment and Coffee
Those nice people over at MusicMark have made available a piece I wrote for secondary school music teachers wherein I reflect on one of the common issues with assessment I am asked about, that of progression. In it I respond … Continue reading
Posted in Assessment, KS3, Progression, Uncategorized Tagged assessment, progress 1 Comment
Video on assessment in music education
This is another 'instead of a blog entry' post! The nice people at 'Teach Through Music' have made a really interesting video about assessment in music education. It features London music teachers talking about this, as well as some talking … Continue reading
Posted in Assessment, KS3 Tagged assessment, Classroom Music, KS3, Music Education Leave a comment
In which I get really ratty about linear attainment assessment. Again.
….or when is KS3 assessment not assessment. It will come as no surprise to regular readers to know that I am actually in favour of assessment. I think it can help pupils and teachers, and, properly done, can provide useful … Continue reading
Posted in Assessment, KS3 Tagged assessment, Campbell's law, Linear, Music Education, Summative assessment 3 Comments
On linear progress and spiral curricula
This blog should be referenced in part to a conversation I had with one of my doctoral students, Anthony Anderson, in a supervision recently. Something he said made me have one of those random, wild, thoughts concerning the difficulties of … Continue reading
Posted in Assessment, KS3, Progression Tagged assessment, Linear, planning, progress 4 Comments
"I have a cunning plan…"
I vaguely remember a lesson plan I wrote some years ago, whilst I was teaching classroom music in school. It involved activity, composing, and all sorts of exciting stuff. The lesson it was due to be delivered we had some … Continue reading
Posted in KS3, Music Education Tagged Classroom Music, NPME 3 Comments


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Photo by Jesus Solana/Getty Images
One of the problems with Christendom and the divisions within is that we want to circle the wagons when someone speaks against our brand instead of listening to our critics to see if there is value in what they have to say. We want to defend our own, and if sometimes our own is indefensible, we prefer to ignore them, pretend they don't exist, aren't a problem. This is foolishness, you can't ignore a cancer in your body. We must be our own greatest critics, removing the planks out of our own eyes before we remove the specks from others. That is one reason why, as a Reformed, Calvinistic Christian I am critical of Douglas Wilson and his teachings. It's why I'm thankful for the protectors of orthodoxy in the URC and OPC denominations who have written at length and in detail against the errors of Federal Vision.
But there is a stink in the Reformed body, we're not the sole host but I believe we're the the largest one in the Christian world. It's the odious theology of kinism and I've discovered, sadly, that it's far more prevalent than I previously thought.
A quick disclaimer, which I'm only making since previously I've only written about Doug Wilson: I do not believe that Doug Wilson is a kinist. To the contrary, he has actually made himself an enemy of them and pointed his barbs in a good direction with them. I believe Doug Wilson has a problem with understanding racism, but I think it has more to do with trying to justify his nostalgic views of the South, needing to shape it in his mind and others as an almost ideal Christian society. There are many problems with this, but none nearly as grave as what is espoused by avowed kinists.
Kinism is virulent racism dressed up in supposed equality. Their cry is "Africa for Africans, Europe for Europeans and Asia for Asians" (Somehow, America for Native Americans didn't make the cut). claiming that while they believe in the equality of all races, that they need to be kept separate, segregated in order to protect their respective cultures and distinctions. A byproduct of keeping the cultures separate is, of course, being anti-interracial marriage, or as they prefer to call it, miscegenation. Of course, anyone who has studied a lick of American history understands what this separate but equal policy really hides and it is odd that they try to hide it at all since nearly everything else they say is drenched with out and out racism.
Kinism in the Reformed world primarily shows up in Reconstructionist theonomy circles who heed the works of RJ Rushdoony. If you find a kinist group on Facebook or look at a kinist's page, there will doubtlessly be fans of nearly countless Reconstructionist and RJ Rushdoony groups and pages. Now, I believe the vast majority of theonomists in the Reconstructionist camp would deny their interpretations, but it's very easy to see where they got their ideas from:
The answer is, there is not a law against it, but there is basically a principle that militates against such marriages, so that you might say they are just barely legal, but in principle Scripture is opposed to them. Because the whole point of marriage is that the wife be a helpmeet to her husband, and the term "helpmeet" means in effect a mirror, an image, one who reflects him spiritually; that is, in terms of faith, in terms of a common background, in terms of a common purpose. Now, marriage between persons of very different races generally doesn't fulfill that requirement, you see. So that it can be technically a marriage, but it isn't one in which the wife can be a helpmeet. So that while it can legally qualify, theologically you could say there are factors which normally, in almost 99 cases out of 100, would militate against it.
And another quick one:
Moreover, if she is to be "a help as before him," a mirror, there must be a common cultural background. This militates against marriages across cultures and across races where there is no common culture or association possible. The new unit is a continuation of the old unit but an independent one; and there has to be a unity or else it is not a marriage. Thus, the attempt of many today to say there is nothing in the Bible against mixed marriages whether religiously or culturally is altogether unfounded. We do not have to go to the Mosaic law (Exodus and Deuteronomy) to demonstrate that, because here in the very beginning (Genesis) we are told that she must be a help meet "bone of his bone, flesh of his flesh" sharing his faith, sharing a common background, a common culture, a common desire to fulfill his calling under God. This, then, is the meaning of marriage in the Biblical sense.
So essentially what we have here is what qualifies a woman to be a "helpmeet" for a man, as God established Eve. Rushdoony viewed racial and cultural divides as being nearly insurmountable, and that thus they would also be "unequally yoked" as 2nd Corinthians 6 warns against. Unfortunately, Rushdoony and the kinists ignore the clear examples set in the Bible to the preference of their extrapolations to justify their sinful, racist hearts. When Miriam criticized Moses for taking a Cushite (Kushite/Nubian) wife, God afflicted her with a skin disease (Numbers 12). Perhaps the most famous love story in the Bible is anathema to kinists, that between the Moabite Ruth, and the Hebrew Boaz.
I don't think you'll find a kinist denomination, or a kinist church, but the error of kinism is insidious. It's not always as easy to sniff out as someone saying that the curse of Ham was the creation of the black race and thus, the chattel slavery the South practiced is justifiable. Today it can be as simple as something like, "Keep France safe for the ethnic French people" which might seem understandable, especially in the light of recent events, until you take a second look and wonder what they mean about keeping France for the "ethnic" French people.
Two of the largest organized proponents of kinism in America today are the League of the South (Which Steve Wilkins, Wilson's co-author of Southern Slavery As It Was, was once a board member of. I do not know if he is still a member, but as he is no longer on the board I hope he has left it entirely and repented of his involvement) and the Council of Conservative Citizens. These organizations are baldly racist on their face, just look up the League of the Souths president's twitter page for quick confirmation of that, but I have seen members of these societies pop up too frequently for comfort in broad online Reformed groups.
To have a legitimate voice, in order to preach the Gospel faithfully in our world, we must not shy away from policing ourselves. We need to recognize that our theology, no matter how pure, can be corrupted and put to evil use. We must call those who subscribe to these fellowship-hating doctrines to repentance if we're to be the salt of the earth. Jesus told his disciples to go, baptize and make believers of all nations, let us honor the great commission and not mar it by tolerating those who would make a mockery of it.


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MASTERCLASS: Global Diversification
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- 53 mins 14 secs
In this Asset Allocation Viewpoints video, three experts in the Multi-Asset Division of T. Rowe Price discuss global diversification in an uncertain world. They will give you an overview of asset allocation profiles and secular risk, and will also dive into perspectives on fixed income and multi-asset investing.
- Chris Dillon, Investment Specialist, Multi-Asset Division
- Sebastien Page, Head of Global Multi-Asset
- Mark Vaselkiv, Chief Investment Officer, Fixed Income
PeopleChris Dillon, Sebastien Page, Mark Vaselkiv
CompaniesT. Rowe Price
TopicsMASTERCLASS, Global Diversification, Credit, Secular Risk, Bonds, Feds, Fixed Income, Central Banks, Economy, 30mins
Chris Dillon: Hello, welcome to the first of what will be a series of quarterly webcasts provided by the T. Rowe Price, The Multi-Asset Division. Today's presentation is titled Global Diversification in an Uncertain World, and I am pleased to have two members of the asset allocation team in the Multi-Asset Division of T. Rowe Price. First of all, Sebastien Page, thank you for joining today. 20 years investment experience, joining to T. Rowe Price in 2015. Experience at Pimco, leading a team, researching Multi-Asset solutions for institutional clients, managing director at State Street, and also an author in terms of awards, various white papers written in a financial analyst Journal, Journal of Portfolio Management. Great to have you here today.
Sebastien Page: Thank you.
Chris Dillon: Mr. Vaselkiv, Mark Vaselkiv, chief investment officer for the Fixed Income come at T. Rowe Price, but joining T. Rowe Price in 1988 as a credit analyst. So, you've seen security selection from the bottom up, taking the reins for our high yield investment efforts, leading them since 1996, so still in that role leading the high yield team, CIO, fixed income, a lot of perspective here. Great to have you here as well, Mark.
Mark Vaselkiv: Thank you, Chris.
Chris Dillon: And I didn't introduce myself. I'm Chris Dillon, a member of the Multi-Asset Team, and I'm a moderator day and great to be part of this conversation. So again, quarterly series of presentations. We will be rotating members of the asset allocation committee through here on a quarterly basis and let's get started.
Chris Dillon: And we move to slide two. It's just a simple outline of what we will be discussing today. There will be just a brief introduction or review for some of you who are familiar with Multi-Asset, but just an update on the Multi-Asset business at T. Rowe Price. We will then spend some time talking about Secular Risk. This is a term being very much covered financial press. Many firms like T. Rowe Price out talking about it. We will spend time on that. Many of these conversations are focused on equity, but this certainly, Secular Risk, applies to fixed income. It applies to Multi-Asset. We're going to spend some time talking about secular risk, and then we've got specific expertise here. We're going to talk about how fixed income markets are looking from Mark Vaselkiv's perspective, and then how all of those viewpoints rep into things that we're thinking about on the Multi-Asset side of T. Rowe Price. So much to cover here today.
Chris Dillon: Let's get started with our agenda. Again, just a quick uptake with T. Rowe Price's Multi-Asset business here on slide four, so as for those of you following along with the slides, you'll see 25 years plus experience for T. Rowe Price on the Multi-Asset side. You'll see over on the far right-hand side, along strong track record of delivering risk-adjusted performance in our Multi-Asset investment strategies that go back a long way as we just said, 285 plus billion in assets of our trillion dollars in assets, in assets under management at T. Rowe Price overall. And then a dedicated team of professionals that seems to be growing pretty quickly, Sebastien, in terms of growth in the business, so 60 plus dedicated professionals here on the Multi-Asset side. Very quickly on slide five, and we're going to come back to this slide because we're going to move by this pretty quickly, but I think we've got Sebastien Page here leading Multi-Asset that we'd be remiss not to get your thoughts in terms of what we're featuring in our portfolios at this moment in time, so we'll come back here.
Chris Dillon: But this is a grid. And for those of you plugged into the webcast today, this is available on a monthly basis and this is a framework for how we're thinking about the world. It gives our view on stocks versus bonds, whether we're overweight, underweight, it looks at different regions, and how we're invested. There's a strategic underpinning here based off of a 50 year plus asset allocation committee. That will be our neutral. Then we are getting inputs from our equity team, our fixed income team, and we're also getting viewpoints from the street. We're evaluating all of that on a monthly basis, and that will lead to a tactical overlay versus that strategic underpinning.
Chris Dillon: All of that is summarized on this grid here. We will come back to what's here on slide number five. We're going to spend a lot of time here on slide number six, but when I think of Multi-Asset, and myself being a member of the team and as I'm observing it as an investment professional who's at engaging with clients, I think of this slide and I think of the strategic underpinning of the approach on the left-hand side, where it's strategic portfolio design, complemented with a tactical overlay. At the end of the day, all of this is reinforced the security selection fundamentally driven by T. Rowe Price's fundamental global research effort, and then a risk management overlay. Sebastien and I know you'll be spending time on the risk management overlay. And just in terms of our monthly strategy meeting on the right-hand side, the center of it is the asset allocation committee, members of which come from the equity side of T. Rowe Price, Fixed-Income side of T. Rowe Price, and then dedicated Multi-Asset professionals balancing these different viewpoints that come into us on a monthly basis from our global investment platform.
Chris Dillon: Let's dive deeper into this presentation and discuss secular risk, the emergence of a new competitive force, technological advance, changing customer habit, and/or regulatory change that is structural and long-term that results in a slower top-line growth rate, margin compression, and/or multiple compression. This feels very equity. And we've got Mark here from Fixed-Income, and we got Sebastien from Multi-Asset. But this is not just an equity story. This is also a fixed income story here. And I think, Mark, you had some interesting perspective on this in terms of a different lens on fixed income against this backdrop.
Mark Vaselkiv: Absolutely. If you spend a lot of time walking the halls of our offices in Baltimore, London, and Hong Kong, you'll often hear a major theme of investing on the right side of change because over the last 15 years, we've seen the advent of major new technologies that have disrupted traditional industries. Examples would include retailing, transportation, publishing, consumer behavior in a lot of areas, energy utilities. And what we've seen is that some of these dominant new technologies have led to outstanding performance for the underlying stocks clearly names like Amazon, Google, Apple, Netflix, we hope Tesla someday, but we also have to recognize that for many value investors, and I would include high yield as a value-driven strategy, many companies find themselves on the wrong side of change. And we debate and we struggle with how to invest in those companies that are more value oriented.
Mark Vaselkiv: When you look at the performance of equity strategies over the past 10 years, growth has dominated value. And historically, value investors would say, "Well, we can wait for mean reversion because ultimately the playing fields will level out," but that may no longer be the case for many value companies. They may face long-term secular declines, existential crises, if you will. So, the key for fixed income investors like ourselves is to try to avoid many of those companies on the wrong side of change, but also to participate where we can in some of the disruptive forces in our world.
Mark Vaselkiv: I would use Netflix as an example. While that company is known as being a large-cap growth stock, many people don't know that Netflix typically borrows about $2 billion of long-term debt every year because they're spending about $10 billion to develop new content in the United States as well as in other parts of the world. So as Netflix has issued new 10 year and 15 years securities, we have had the opportunity to participate. Tesla would be a second example. Tesla is a fixed income credit in our portfolios. We like Uber as well, company that may be coming public soon. So even for credit investors like ourselves, it's very critical to try to begin to add significant allocation to the companies that are on the right side of change.
Chris Dillon: Having had a chance to work with you a little bit in December in a venue for our sales team, it struck me when the idea of electric, not the idea, or the phenomenon of electric vehicles came up and it's point of inflection doesn't have to be precise, but 2025 the year of, sounded like a year to think about. So, owning longer maturity internal combustion auto manufacturer beyond 2025.
Mark Vaselkiv: Chris, the firm has spent a lot of time discussing what we will see as an autonomous electric vehicle tipping point. And you hit the nail on the head by saying that could happen somewhere around 2025. That will have profound implications for traditional auto manufacturers, some of the incumbents in Europe and the United States, but it's very different for a fixed income investor. On the equity side, the valuation of a common stock is largely dependent on its ultimate terminal value. And I cannot make a case beyond 2025, what the terminal value of a company like Ford might be on the equity side. However, if I own a 2023 Ford Credit fixed income security, knowing my maturity is four to five years into the future, the terminal value of a bond is certain, assuming the company doesn't default, and we can actually participate on some of these disrupted credit situations because our investment horizon is shorter than a traditional equity investor who might look out 10, 15, or 20 years.
Chris Dillon: As I toggle between fixed income and equities, struggle for myself is remembering bad news on the equity side like Kraft Heinz, what stock is down 60% from a trailing one-year perspective, but that bad news means that the spread is going to increase. You're going to get extra yield if you're going to own that paper. And I think of vice versa, general mills gets thrown into that conversation. That's a stock that's actually up 27% year to date. So, something that you would want to be owning from a tactical perspective, maybe even a strategic perspective. But that good news for general mills brings the spread in. So, it's sort of counter-intuitive, and I've been reading the research notes on fixed income, so Kraft Heinz Opportunity, general mills, these are both triple B credits, so just it's just interesting to me that it works in reverse a bit here in fixed income.
Mark Vaselkiv: Absolutely. There are many issuers who are bad equity stories and probably good bond stories. Again, as fixed income investors, we get to choose our investment horizon. Some of those companies, I wouldn't lend money to them for 10, 15, or 30 years. Keep in mind in the investment grade world, there are a lot of 30-year bonds, so you're taking three decades of credit risk inherent in that security. Whereas in the high yield market, where I've spent the bulk of my career, majority of securities are from five to eight years. Sometimes they're even shorter. So again, we like the shorter duration characteristics of some of the below investment grade strategies and that gives us a little bit more flexibility to remain in some of these sectors that will ultimately face disruptive challenges.
Chris Dillon: This is probably something that's going to come up later, and I may save this for you, Sebastien, but I heard some phraseology risky, fixed income may look attractive versus risky equities, but why don't we leave that for viewpoints. But we were on slide nine. Let's move over to slide 10, and then we're going to get Sebastien, get you much more involved with this conversation. But I think just from the perspective, and we're on slide 10, and four different things to think about in terms of managing around secular risk from an equity perspective, and we're not going to get through this because the expertise here is different than the, the deep equity dive we've done here. But mark, we did talk about sustainable energy companies. This is utilities being part of investing around secular risks that will bring much more of a consideration around security selection.
Chris Dillon: Let's remind investors that since March of 2009 to September 20th, 2019 you had just had to own the index to get 19% annualized returns. We can thank the Fed for quantitative easing and just to see of liquidity pouring into markets. But since 2015 it's been quantitative tightening and this brings in the idea of if you combine quantitative tightening along with this secular risk concept, stocks, election's going matter, picking bonds is going to matter and then sectors are going to be impacted as well. But mark, I just thought it was interesting like a Sempra energy or a next era energy and a part of this conversation.
Mark Vaselkiv: Yeah, we see in the utility sector a win, win, win situation in that historically this has been considered a sleepy industry sector where valuations have been less expensive than some of growth industries. But now, with the advent of alternative energy, renewable energy alternatives, we can invest in companies like NextEra that are a combination of traditional regulated utility. Florida Power and Light, considered one of the best run regulated utilities in the states and another business side that's the leader in solar and wind and hydro energy. And so, it's an industry where we do not expect to see negative pressure from regulations or governments. Ultimately consumers like utilities moving more towards alternatives. It's a win from a political perspective and hopefully, all of those constituencies align in what has historically been a defensive industry to turn it into more of a growth strategy.
Chris Dillon: Interesting. So here on slide 10, I'm looking at the top header and it's a reference to sectors and if we're making the point that picking stocks matter, sector weights within indices and index composition are going to matter, things that we've been talking about in Multi-Asset. Sebastien, I'd be interested to get some of your perspectives here as think about index composition at this stage of the investment cycle.
Sebastien Page: It matters a lot because it changes over time, but in that context, one of the debates we have at every single asset allocation committee meeting, and Mark will know this, is should we overweight growth stocks relative to value. We talk about disruption and there are many more disruptors in the growth stock portfolios than in the value stock portfolios which are more likely to be disrupted. However, as you mentioned, growth stocks have had a fantastic 10-year run relative to value, so they look expensive. However, we're late in the cycle. So, who wants to own value when you're that late in the cycle? Who wants to be long cyclical when you're that late in the cycle and round and round, we go in the debate in Q4 of 2018, we saw an opportunity to lean into growth stocks. So, we're slightly overweight right now. We liked them from a secular perspective.
Sebastien Page: The way I think about the disruption question is one of our portfolio managers has had that great analogy where he said, "if you look at a company and you ask, is it secularly challenged or not?" And by the way, our CIO has said very precisely, 30.92% of the SNP 500 represents secularly challenged companies. How do you answer that question, whether that company is secularly challenged or not? One of our portfolio managers said, "Well, just think about the future. Project yourself in a star trek world and to ask yourself, Chris, do they still have that product or service there? Do they still have cable TV? Do they still have gasoline cars?" And you begin to think of the framework when you apply that framework to sectors within the value style or the growth style, you quickly find that the secular forces favor growth stocks.
Chris Dillon: Interesting. And I think when we get back to that framework, we'll see that tilt towards growth and maybe revisit part of that conversation. And we're going to wrap up here on the secular risk side, but before we do, repeating the same thing, things that you just said, but often in my travels meeting with various clients, I hear the argument for value from a mean reversion standpoint. It's been growth over value for a decade and of course, because it's run for a decade, value is going to have its day in the sun. I think from our perspective and interested to get your take here, that's not a good enough argument.
Sebastien Page: Yes, and I should clarify, we have a secular long-term bias towards growth stocks, but our portfolio is also allocate to value stocks in our portfolio managers in the value space find companies that they like that aren't secularly challenged. So, there is balance in our portfolios despite that bias. And if you zoom out, Chris, instead of looking at the last 10 years, if you say, "I'm going to go back to 1930," okay, the world was very different back then and I always hesitate to use that long range of data. But nonetheless, before this 10-year period post-crisis, which has been a low growth environment, and therefore, has favored cyclical growth stocks, value outperform for that 80-year stretched. So perhaps there's maybe not an 80 year stretch for growth, but if you put that in the context of secular challenges and disruption, perhaps there's more room to grow for growth stocks in the US. We can talk about growth stocks outside the US as well, but you have to always put it in the context of valuation, short terms as well as long-term perspective.
Mark Vaselkiv: And Chris, we may be saying that ultimately value-driven fixed income strategies like emerging markets debt and high yield might make more sense in the future and value-driven equity strategies. Getting back to this idea of mean reversion. In mean reversion and fixed income, that means maturity part. Getting your money back. Mean reversion inequities in a secularly challenged company is much more problematic.
Sebastien Page: Mark makes a very good point here, and we've had that conversation several times. Fixed income markets mean revert more than equity markets. All else being equal. If your time horizon is say six to 18 months, the starting valuation for Fixed Income Markets, the spreads, and the yield levels are more predictive of forward 12 month returns than pes for stocks, for example. So, when we look at relative value between stocks and bonds and within fixed income sectors, one of the key signals is the relative yields and spreads between those sectors.
Mark Vaselkiv: How about this first statistic, Chris? The high yield market in its entire 40-year history has never lost money two years in a row. That's the ultimate in mean reversion. More importantly than that, some of the best years in the history of the high yield market have come right after a year of negative performance. It happened after the financial crisis. It happened in 2016, how you market lost money in 2018, and it's off to a strong start again, the first quarter of '19. To us, that makes for a sustainable long-term fixed income strategy.
Chris Dillon: Slide 13, or just three points around secular risk. It's growing from our perspective, number of attractive industries, companies shrinking, navigating secular, crucial to investing success in fixed income, in Multi-Asset, inequities, to wrap up that secular risk portion of our presentation. But there's a lot going on in fixed income. It's been performing well. You're saying risky, fixed income better. You just touched on emerging market debt and high yield and it's an interesting slide here on slide 15, Mark, taking the world fixed income markets, interest rates sensitivity across the horizontal bottom access yield to maturity across the left vertical access, and then we've got those bubbles, let's not forget that. And we're thinking about this and multitask at all the time. That's the correlation back to the Equity Side of the ledger. So, some thoughts from you here, Mark.
Mark Vaselkiv: Chris, what a difference, a couple of fed meetings can make. Think back to the fourth quarter of 2018. Perceptions over tighter central bank policy, particularly from Mr. Powell and his colleagues. Slowing economies globally, Europe and China, Pete corporate earnings potentially in the United States, and then almost a 180-degree pivot at the end of the year and now into the first quarter of 2019. I would say that the investment climate has gone from the polar vortex to 72 and sunny, and it's been pretty amazing recovery and in the first three months of 2019 with that fed pivot, literally almost all fixed income strategies have performed very well, especially a recovery in the plus sectors like emerging market debt, as well as high yield and bank loans. And sadly, many clients sold a lot of their positions in these strategies in the fourth quarter because they did not perceive that pivot from the Fed. They thought it was quantitative tightening, and more of that menu for the remainder of this year.
Mark Vaselkiv: And so don't fight the Fed when we have quantitative easing, certainly you don't want to fight the Fed during QT or quantitative tightening. Well, that quantitative tightening lasted less than a year. And what kind of back to QE, and we think we have some positive runway in some of these plus sectors as well. Let's not forget that interest rates have fallen sharply, particularly in March of this year. Treasuries, 10-year treasuries have come back down about 2.4. Everybody's worried about a flat yield curve, but the reality is absolute level of rates in the United States are currently low enough to help sustain this economic recovery in this cycle. Probably through the end of this year to at least into 2020 so a lot of favorable tailwinds for fixed income. Everybody's talking about what a great quarter it was for equities Q1. Well, fixed income delivered some pretty outstanding results as well.
Chris Dillon: You talked about the Fed, and I think we should give some credit to our fixed income colleagues cause yields were rising in early September 2018. And I travel a fair amount in my line of work and I'm on panel discussions with other firms that will remain nameless for the purpose of this webcast, but there were certain high-level firms that we're seeing. The Fed was going to go 25 basis points in December, and we're going to go four times 25 basis points in 2019, not a good prescription for fixed income, not a good prescription for equities either.
Mark Vaselkiv: Or the economy.
Chris Dillon: Or just everything out of the window so to speak. All of the above. But I think give our fixed income colleagues credit where they were leaning against that thought process. And I think if that, and I think a Multi-Asset where we started wading into emerging market debt, I'm going to say August, September of last year on the hard currency side, the dollar-denominated then until the local than emerging market equity, was there progression? But I think we differentiated ourselves with that, with that call, and it ties in.
Sebastien Page: Chris, I was having a discussion with a colleague from the asset allocation committee when markets were selling off, and we were talking about what you're talking at the moment, this view that rates could continue to rise despite softening economic data. And my colleague, he shall remain nameless, but I'm going to say he's on this panel, and his last name rhymes with El Kev. He looks at me from his 35 years of experience investing phenomenal track record as an investor. And he said something to me that has stuck with me and that speaks to the current investing environment. He said, "Sebastien, every time the Feds slams the breaks, someone's head goes through the windshield." That was the sentiment around Q4. You can't underestimate this Fed pivot, and the effect it has had, and the effect it will have.
Chris Dillon: And a 20% bounce plus in the S&P 500 since Christmas Eve in terms of the power of the Fed, and also applying to plus sectors on the fixed income side. Mark, we've got a couple other slides in your section here that are topical. One is, if we've had a good run in risky fixed income spreads, how do we look?
Mark Vaselkiv: Spreads actually have improved a little bit since the beginning of the year, January and February, a lot of tightening, but with rates falling in March, spreads in high yield, widened a little bit for 50 over may not be the most compelling spreads. But remember, that translates to about a six to six and a half percent carry today, relative to Treasuries at two to two and a half percent. So, 6% and a low-interest rate environment in the context of the United States looks good. It looks even better globally when you think of the fact that something like $11 trillion of fixed-income securities around the world still carry negative yields. We're back to negative yields on German bonds all the way out to nine years in maturity. And that makes the case for higher income strategies in emerging as well as high yield on a relative basis somewhat compelling today.
Chris Dillon: One of our global equity portfolio managers running a global equity portfolio talks about the guard rails around inflation. That being demographics and technology, part of that secular risk story. You've got technological advancement, inflation, not an issue. You do have some, signs of wage pressure, but inflation, not an issue. I think it sort of feeds into comments you were just making.
Mark Vaselkiv: Well, getting back to this idea of disruptive technology and secular change, a significant impact from many of these companies has been to reduce the overall level of inflation in the economy. It's keeping wages down. And that trend will probably continue on into the future. Thinking about autonomous driving for example, and what that will mean for people today who move their products by rail or truck. Truck drivers may go away. You look at it in areas like, energy where horizontal drilling has uncovered and unlocked substantially new stores of oil and gas reserves keeping the cost of energy relatively low. So, it's happening over and over again. And with inflation largely at bay today, I think that makes another case for lower interest rates for longer, and it preserves the economic cycle for a little bit into the future.
Chris Dillon: It's the fixed income section. But Sebastien, we made a move and Multi-Asset, September 2017. We went a lot more global. And I think there's going to be perspective from both of you here about cycles. I don't know, some thoughts in terms of the move we made. It was a lot less Bloomberg, Barclay's Ag and then some global dynamic, absolute return, fixed income, some international hedged fixed income. Those were moves that we made. It was a substantial move, I thought, from our perspective.
Sebastien Page: We like international hedged bonds at the moment, and we've been adding to the asset class. The interest rate differential, some of the things Mark is talking about with zero or negative yielding rates outside the US, and then rates at say 2.5% in the US. That differential makes the hedging interesting. It makes the hedging back to US dollar a positive carry. You earn excess return on that. If you look at our international bond hedge portfolio actively managed, at the moment in yields about 4.2%. Compare that to 3.2 for the Barclays Aggregate. That spread is quite interesting. It's in the top 90th percentile of the last 15 years, so we see an opportunity to lean against those valuations playing mean reversion in what you could call relatively safe carry because you get extra carry, but it's US dollar carry.
Chris Dillon: And some diversification of monetary policy cycle as well as economic cycle, Mark?
Mark Vaselkiv: Absolutely. When you look at this current slide here, that highlights the four different phases of a credit cycle, and I think you can also apply this to an economic cycle or even an interest rate cycle. It's been proven that investing in the repair, and the recovery phases at attractive valuations typically leads to much better outcome in terms of overall investment performance. So, let's use China as an example today. Clearly, a country that's faced some challenges as their growth has slowed dramatically in the last year, but now some positive stimulus is beginning to gain traction and the economy is showing some green shoots, signs of life again, and people feel a lot better about the second largest economy in the world. Obviously, that has significant spillover effects for other regions, not just around Asia, might actually help Europe because Europe is a significant exporting boarding region of the world. So, will this give a little bit of a tailwind for Europe to get back on its feet?
Mark Vaselkiv: Conversely, if you're over weighted region or a country like the US, that might be on the inflection point between expansion in downturn, there's significant risk there. We would, for example, be very concerned about a country like Mexico because of its close correlation and tie to the US economy. If the US economy where to catch the flu, then the Mexicans would probably catch pneumonia. It's an old adage, but it's true. So, where you invest along the credit in the economic cycle really can affect your long-term investment performance. So, given the fact that we might be very late in the US today, and that's an important assumption, you might want to now engage in broader diversification globally in the event that that transpires in the next year or two.
Sebastien Page: May I just had Chris, we sound like we're cheering for fixed income a lot so far, and I want to clarify that stocks are a crucial part of investor's portfolios from a strategic perspective. And if you take a longer time horizon and you're saving for retirement, it is the engine of growth in investor's portfolios. Ultimately, we ended up currently tactically roughly neutral between stocks and bonds. It's not the most exciting position. You're kind of waiting for opportunities to move in one direction or the other. But let's not forget the role of stocks. Stocks are awesome. I say that often. Stocks are awesome.
Chris Dillon: It's a huge point, and we are neutral between stocks and bonds right now, which to your point, 60% of your portfolio of global equities at lot to think about. You mentioned ...
Mark Vaselkiv: Could I make one more editorial?
Chris Dillon: Sure. I think we can get flexibility here.
Mark Vaselkiv: One of the most important lessons I've learned in my 30 years at T. Rowe came from our former CIO, Brian Rogers, who said that a lot of investors engage in destructive inconsistency. And this slide is a perfect example ...
Chris Dillon: Slide 19.
Mark Vaselkiv: ... Of that. What you have here, a lot of short term market timers, investors who panicked in the fourth quarter of 2018 sold their positions in high yield, and bank loans and as a result missed a tremendous rally in the early part of 2019 forgot about the fact that it's a resilient asset class, mean reversion always works in your favor after a year of negative performance. Again, to us, this speaks of the importance of taking a long-term structural position allocation in these plus sectors in fixed income rather than trying to navigate tactically. Credit markets timing, fixed income is very challenging even for the most sophisticated institutional clients.
Chris Dillon: And we're going to get to it with market viewpoints, but interesting in Multi-Asset we were underweight equity Beta off of our 60/40 and it looked bad on Christmas Eve. But to Mark's point with that strategic underpinning. And thinking of a US recession, not at the beginning of 2020 potentially farther back, we absolutely leaned in and as you said, we're neutral stocks and bonds. Getting part of that balance that's occurred from the year to date, or the time period since Christmas Eve. Let's go ahead and transition over to Multi-Asset. And Sebastien, I don't want to steal a punchline for your section of the presentation here, but I heard Mark say late cycle. And I wasn't counting, but I heard it at least twice. And a portfolio can look diversified when the sun is out, and it can be behaving differently when the sun is not out. And I've seen presentation on your thoughts from that perspective. But it'd be great to get your viewpoints here from a Multi-Asset standpoint in an uncertain world.
Sebastien Page: So if you look at what we do in Multi-Asset, ultimately, we package all of the firm's capabilities into one vehicle. And that includes tactical asset allocation, the discussions we're having. It includes risk overlays, it includes the security selection in actively managed building blocks. It also includes a lot of thinking around strategic asset allocation. One of the key questions for strategic asset allocation is how you diversify a portfolio. Let's think about it tactically first. When you're late in the cycle, and you have a PE ratio on US stocks of say 17 where we are right now. Does it mean the same thing as when you're early in the cycle? It doesn't. Early in the cycle, a PE ratio of 17 on stocks has a very different distribution of forward 12 months returns.
Sebastien Page: You go back in history, and you look at when valuations were in that range, you look forward 12 months. If you're early in the cycle, the average returns around 17% and most of the outcomes historically had been positive for stocks. Take the same valuation range and position yourself late in the cycle, but then look 12 month forwards historically, you get a very different picture. The average return is five or 6% and you get much more exposure to large losses. So, the risks are different. And what happens when you get those large losses? Often diversification will leave you. And that is exactly when you need diversification. The unfortunate thing, Chris, I've been working on this for years from a strategic asset allocation research perspective is that diversification, it works quite well when you don't need it. When markets go well, you get good diversification and we all know this and by intuition that when you get a negative outcome, which are more likely when you're late in the cycle, asset classes start to move together. Credit starts to move with equities and other risk-on strategies all fall together.
Sebastien Page: I started researching this before the global financial crisis. We looked at a bunch of asset classes, and we simply parse the data between down markets and up markets, and we published a paper in the Journal of Portfolio Management titled, very aggressive title, The Myth of Diversification that showed this asymmetry between downside correlations being so high on the downside, and so low on the upside, even negative on the upside. This was before the crisis. And we were using pre-crisis data. It was interesting in the crisis to see that occur more than ever before even commodities went down with everything else. And the paper was published right after the crisis because you get a lag when you publish these papers. It won an award. I don't think the paper was particularly good. I think it was a combination of the title, The Myth of Diversification, and the timing post-crisis.
Sebastien Page: Well, recently, I asked my colleague Rob Pan Relo to look at the question again with a broader set of asset classes and with 10 more years of data, nothing really new for investors, but how bad is this problem between downside and upside correlation differences or diversification differences? It's very pervasive. It's persistent, so our new paper, which is out in the financial analyst's journal, this title, When Diversification Fails. It's not as broad or strongest statement as the Myth of Diversification. We do believe in robust diversification that focuses on the downside events, but it makes the case quite clearly. We can look at a slide ...
Chris Dillon: Let's do that.
Sebastien Page: ... That shows correlations between pairs of asset classes in two very different environments.
Chris Dillon: Slide 23.
Sebastien Page: In the first environment on the left, we're looking at correlations when equity markets are in their bottom 5%. And the correlations on the right, we're looking at the same measures, how do these asset classes diversify each other, but when equity markets are rallying in their top 5%, look at the difference. Investors know this. It's intuitive, but investors might not know the extent to which this problem applies to different pairs of asset classes. Take US and non-US stocks. When us stocks are rallying, the correlation between US and non-US stocks is minus 16%. You can spot it there on the right.
Chris Dillon: I see it.
Sebastien Page: What happens to that correlation when US stocks are in their bottom 5%? It goes up to 87% the point I want to make here on strategic portfolio diversification is that investors must avoid using averages. The average correlation between asset classes, which is often used by advisors and investors to optimize or diversify portfolios is meaningless. It's worse than meaningless. It's dangerous. It's kind of like saying, "I have my head in the freezer, my feet in the oven, but my average body temperature is awesome. Perfect. I'm very comfortable." You're suboptimal if you diversify using average diversification properties in down markets and you're also suboptimal in up markets because quite frankly, we don't want diversification in up markets. These problems become more pronounced when you're late in the cycle because the risks that you shift to the left as we've seen in Q418 increase.
Sebastien Page: So, Chris, in slide 24, if risk asset classes don't diversify each other in times of extreme market stress, how do we construct robust diversification into our portfolios? The diversification of last resort, if you will, is going to be the risk on risk off diversification between stocks and treasuries. Here's a correlation profile. The bottom axis shows the percentiles in US stock returns. So, if you go all the way to the left where it shows zero, those would be the worst selloffs in stock returns they're around minus 40% as you move to the right, you go all the way to more positive and more positive outcomes all the way to the best strongest stock rallies of 20, 30 plus percent. That profile, unlike the ones we just saw, is a desirable diversification profile because the correlation goes way down when stocks sell off on the left and it goes up when they do well on the right, so the stock-bond correlation becomes a key component of your portfolio diversification decision. The problem with it is that it's actually hard to model itself. If you go back 80 years and you look at the 12-month stock-bond correlation over time it shifts sign from positive to negative 29 times. It ranges between minus 80% and plus 80%.
Sebastien Page: It is hard to model and predict the stock-bond correlation, although it isn't an important part of how you diversify your portfolio. You also see, if you plot the 12-month stock-bond correlation over time that we tend to go through regimes, periods of time during which it is mainly positive, and periods of time during which it is mainly negative. And we've been in a mainly negative stock-bond correlation regime. The question is what explains those regimes? If you're looking to calibrate, diversify a portfolio to a certain risk level, and you're assuming in negative stock-bond correlation. If you're assuming that stocks and bonds will diversify each other, what happens if they actually don't, and you get a taper tantrum type environment and both asset classes go down? You've underestimated your risk. We found that what drives positive stock-bond correlations are shocks and interest rates and shocks and inflation. What drives a negative stock-bond correlation are shocks to the business cycle, risk on, risk off, flight to safety effects. All these considerations argue for thoughtful portfolio construction that accounts for [inaudible 00:44:44].
Sebastien Page: Now, with Chris, we've left the realm of tactical asset allocation. We're talking about how you structure a portfolio for the long run, what we call strategic asset allocation, but those questions matter. What are the solutions? How do you address this? Stock bond diversification remains crucial, but you can also begin to look at more absolute return-oriented strategies or more dynamic strategies when you can change your risk level over time to stabilize your volatility. And by stabilizing your risk over time, by being more dynamic, you can protect your portfolio in times of stress. So, the takeaway I want to give on this is that there are investment methodologies and solutions that can be applied to build better diversified strategic asset allocations. It is of most importance when you're that late in the cycle and your equity Taylorist increases.
Chris Dillon: Great perspective in terms of the move we made, September 2017 a lot less Bloomberg, Barclays. Absolute return fixed income international hedge which we talked about. I also think we still use long treasuries as part of this dynamic. The tactical overlay relative to what could be changing dynamics late in the cycle. All of this comes into play. That's an ending perspective.
Sebastien Page: Chris, you like to talk about the moves we get right. We rarely talked about the moves we get wrong. We don't get all of them right. The good news is that we get more right than we get wrong, just to clarify.
Chris Dillon: A hall of fame economist is right 51% of the time. I think we do a little better than that. Slide 25 and there's any additional considerations you wanted to highlight here in all Sebastien?
Sebastien Page: Just be aware of averages and be very thoughtful on how you diversify your portfolio. Focus on times of stress. What would the portfolio have looked like if we entered stressful markets? Bring scenario analysis from a back-office function to a front office function, where it drives your portfolio allocation decisions. I'm not arguing for everyone to de-risked their portfolios. I'm arguing for the risk models to be more focused on exposure to loss as opposed to volatility or average correlations or sharp ratios.
Chris Dillon: We have you here, you're leading our Multi-Asset investment efforts. We're coming up on time and we talked about revisiting that frameworks slide, as I'm scrolling through here. It's going to take me a bit to scroll to it, so why don't we just speak to our viewpoints. Neutral between stocks and bonds and I'm going to stop there and I'm going to let you talk about how we're positioned in our Multi-Asset strategies right now
Sebastien Page: Playing offense in some areas. We had been overweight small-cap stocks. We have taken in profits to a certain extent in those positions, but we're still overweight. We like emerging markets, equities. Overall non-US equities have been a challenge for us because they've been so cheap, so extremely cheap relative to the US from a long-term valuation perspective, but also challenged, especially from the perspective of financials in Europe and structural issues. So, we've actually been taking some money back from international value in particular, which we've added to high yield. I'm talking about recent changes on the margin. If you look at those charts, you see a dot in front of every asset class. If the dot points to the right, it means we're overweight on that side. If it points to the left, it means we're overweight on that side. And then in the middle means neutral.
Chris Dillon: And I always think of our international equity positioning and I think if we're spending 100 cents, 70 those cents are US equities, 30 of those cents are international equities. And we have stayed the course and I think our 30 cents on the dollar international equities is underway relative to many peers but does provide diversification, cheaper valuation. Investors on the international side were disappointed last year with a strong dollar environment. We're talking about, we haven't specifically said it, but it doesn't look like the Fed's moving this year and it also looks like a pause from the balance sheet perspective. If there were expectations around the Fed 4 times, 25 basis points, that seems to take significant error out of the idea of a strong dollar. So, staying the course on international equities, emerging market equities, it could be a better runway here.
Sebastien Page: You make a good point Chris. We have to think of emerging market equities separately. They are cheap by historical standards. Just the last 12 months, the MSEI emerging markets is down 15% relative to the US stock market. So, there is some value there if you get a meaningful trade deal. The issue is that a lot of the trade deal enthusiasm as somewhat been priced in and you have different layers of this, easy or relatively easy, hard and very hard. Relatively easy, the US comes to an agreement with China to sell more US products to China. Hard, agreement on IP, intellectual property, protection in the whole technology area. Extremely hard, enforcement of that agreement. So, the whole trade situation influences the view on emerging markets. But when you look on balance at a more dovish Fed, potentially weaker US dollar, attractive valuations starting point where EM has underperformed, US stabilizing global growth, pretty good PMI print in China in February, you see an opportunity to overweight that asset class, perhaps more than European value stocks.
Chris Dillon: It's potentially muddling along here, neutral between stocks and bonds. Before we leave here, Mark, any final thoughts from your perspective?
Mark Vaselkiv: I would just highlight that in the emerging world there is great opportunity to add value through active management because clearly, China is a major story in EM. Most of the world focuses on developments there, but there are plenty of other countries where we have fascinating reforms beginning to take place in countries that were historically very challenged. Brazil would be a great illustration today, South Africa, these are areas where our research analysts and our portfolio managers working around the globe can find opportunities for significant absolute performance. So, this whole notion of casting a wider net both in fixed income as well as inequities, not easy to execute, but firms with the deep resources like we have. The boots on the ground all over the world, I think that gives us a formidable edge competitively to take advantage of those potentials.
Sebastien Page:Chris, if I can add.
Mark Vaselkiv: Please.
Sebastien Page: We've had 20 trillion in liquidity injections roughly by central banks globally since the global financial crisis. Investors are worried about where we are in the current environment and the dovish fed position is helping, but there's a tremendous amount of uncertainty and it's going to be a tough environment to invest. Security selection, in my opinion, is going to matter a lot. Sector Selection, dynamic valuation, driven asset allocation is going to help but it's not going to be easy. And to advisers discussing these situations with clients and their portfolios. I would say something that my mentor told me years ago and I'll always remember it, he told me that the secret to happiness in life is to lower your expectations. And that I think is a good way to summarize the current investing environment, to end on a positive note out.
Chris Dillon: I want to thank you both for the time we spent today. Sebastien, thank you for your perspective. Mark, great perspective on Fixed-Income. And with that, that concludes our webcast today, Diversification in an Uncertain World. And before we leave you, there's a continuing education credits for tuning in to the webcast today. There's additional continuing education credits for the white paper that Sebastien mentioned along the way titled, When Diversification Fails in The Financial Analyst Journal, go ahead and do a Google search out for that. And if you read it, there is additional CE credit for consuming that white paper. A lot of work went into that. So, thank you for that content as well, Sebastien. Thank you most so much for joining. Look forward to seeing you on our next quarterly webcast.


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Where are you from?
Double Snake C48 Turbo Yeast 40 pcs
Availability: More than 500
Dispatched within: 24 hours
Price:add to wish list
Rating: 0
Vendor: Alcotec
Product code: 0258-982F6_20191029152102
The C48 is a "dual" turbo yeast. Dual means that you can choose whether to make a moderate level of alcohol fast (48 hours max), or a high level of alcohol (5 days). You control the choice by adding different levels of sugar at start. If you add 6 kgs (25L total volume), you will do the fast fermentation up to 14% alcohol. If you add instead 8 kgs of sugar (still into 25L total volume), you will automatically target 19% alcohol instead in 5 days.
- efficent
- up to 21%
- 40 pcs
The set includes 40 pcs of Double Snake C48.


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flowers getting smaller and paler
I have a braided hibiscus tree that has been repotted since purchase in a 15" pot. It bloomed fine for the first couple of weeks. Now it has smaller flowers in diameter and the color is lighter and paler than before. I fertilized the plant when I first repotted it and don't let it dry out. I mist it daily and lightly water to keep the top soil somewhat moist and not dry out. Any suggestions for small flowers and pale color? Thanks
Heat and direct sunlight can fade the flower color and reduce the size of the flowers.
Your plant may be needing more water. You need to water so that the entire pot receives water. Make sure the pot is draining properly.
Here is a link with more care information.
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A Chinese language acquisition program for Howard County - enhanced with fitness, academics and the arts.
with private bus transportation at dismissal from select public elementary schools during the school year.
Our online record keeping system provides 24/7 access to member's account and billing information. Parents may easily track payments and expiration dates by simply logging onto our online system.
Our "Forums" menu option provides access to an online discussion capability where members may ask questions or read previous questions and answers. (And - of course - we are also available via email, firstname.lastname@example.com , and by phone at the numbers listed on the home page.)
CURRENT MEMBERS: To access your online account information - first log in (upper right corner of the web page.)
Enter your USER ID and your secret PASSWORD, then click on "PROFILE" (upper right corner of the web page.)
From your PROFILE PAGE you may review all aspects of your Academic After School account.
If you don't know your USER ID please see a staff member at the desk or call us at 443-546-3460 during normal
weekday business hours (M-F: 2:30-6:30pm). If you don't know your PASSWORD, we can reset it upon request.


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Immatics at the J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference (Jan 7-10) in San Francisco, CA
Immatics will be part of the J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference (Jan 7-10) in San Francisco. The annual J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference is the largest healthcare investment symposium in the industry, bringing together industry leaders, emerging fast-growth companies, innovative technology creators, and members of the investment community.
Join Peter Chambré's presentation on Jan 8 at 5pm about Immatics delivering the power of T-cell redirecting immunotherapies to cancer patients.
Take the chance to meet us:
- Peter Chambré, Chairman of Immatics
- Rainer Kramer, Managing Director and Chief Business Officer
- Harpreet Singh, Managing Director and Chief Scientific Officer, President and CEO Immatics US, Inc.
- Steffen Walter, Chief Scientific Officer, Immatics US, Inc.
- Thomas Ulmer, Managing Director and Chief Financial Officer
- Carsten Reinhardt, Managing Director and Chief Medical Officer
We're looking forward to interesting and exciting discussions.
Further information about the 37th Annual J.P. Morgan healthcare conference here.


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It goes against everything people are told to do in the Northern Territory: swimming with crocodiles.
But in ten days, Darwin's Michael Wells will be doing exactly that, when he attempts to swim across Darwin Harbour in the name of charity.
"This is all about losing my sister last year from breast cancer and me thinking I'd like to do something for women who suffer breast cancer," he told 9NEWS.
"I came up with the idea of swimming across Darwin Harbour breast stroke to raise money for breast cancer research."
Today he tested his stinger suit in the water for the first time, but it's a much larger marine creature that's the biggest concern.
Darwin Harbour is known for crocodiles, and in April, a 4.7-metre saltie was trapped and removed by wildlife rangers.
Mr Wells said some people had asked if he was insane, but others who know the harbour, were quick to recommend how to pull the swim off.
"I've got a professional croc spotter," Mr Wells said.
"I didn't now such a profession existed."
He plans to swim on a neap tide, when the tidal flow is at its lowest, and if a croc is spotted during the swim, he'll be pulled out of the water and into his escort boat.
Despite the inherent dangers, world renowned crocodile expert Professor Grahame Webb gave Mr Wells his blessing.
"I think he'll be fine with the precautions he's taking," Mr Webb said.
"Slack low tide and go off into deep water.
"If he went in somewhere like Cullen Bay you go straight into the deep water. It's a bold move and I wish him every success."
Sixty people have pledged more than $7000 in donations, and if Mr Wells makes it the 6km across Darwin Harbour, the money will be donated to the National Breast Cancer Foundation.
The swim will take place on June 24, which also happens to be his sister Susan's birthday.
If weather conditions on the day are unfavourable, Mr Wells plans to reschedule.


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Recapping the horrendous loss to the Cowboys out of the bye week. The Tyler's have differing outlooks on the rest of the season. Week 11 predictions and a breakdown of what to expect in New Orleans.
The Birds Informer Podcast is recorded at Momentous Voice Production Studios, a local and affordable podcasting studio located in the Philadelphia Suburbs. If you are in need of recording space, editing services, or advice on podcast production, contact Daniel Quinn at firstname.lastname@example.com. You can also follow the studio and their work on Facebook at fb.com/MomentousVP and on Twitter and Instagram @MomentousVP.
Sponsors: Gunnar Financial, Philly TIX, and Momentous Voice Production Studios


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The 2018 Report 'The Situation of the Human Rights Defenders of Lyme and Relapsing Fever Borreliosis Patients was submitted to Special Rapporteur Michel Forst and to Special Rapporteur Dr. Dainius Pūras of the United Nations in March 2018. This resulted in a meeting between United Nations Human Rights Council Special Rapporteur Forst and medical professionals, scientists, human rights experts and advocates on June 5, 2018 in Geneva, Switzerland.
Two years ago the story of the young ill girl who was blessed by the Pope got international attention. She was dropped on a concrete floor as 'treatment', test results were hidden and the family was repeatedly told that she could NOT have Lyme Disease in the New York area. After the blessing indeed miracles started to happen: her Lyme blood test suddenly showed up positive, a specialist offered her free treatment and her health improved.
Then the insurance company declined coverage of her treatment costs and gave a fake address to file a complaint. To make matters even more bizarre, the CDC called to warn her father to not continue with her Lyme treatments. The story about the CDC, the games the insurance company played and the abuse with regard to the hospitals and doctors was never told before - out of fear of retaliation. As the proof of the pudding is always in the eating, we asked her father Enrico how Julia is doing now.
The following is largely excerpted from the June 27, 2017 article Human Rights Violations of Relapsing Fever and Lyme Disease Patients Under International Investigation, by Jenna Luche-Thayer. The link can be found below.


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An undergraduate certificate in computer networking can supplement a bachelor's degree or help you build knowledge and experience in this in-demand field.
Perfect for those who want to work as network administrators for business, government, or nonprofit organizations, the undergraduate certificate program in computer networking at UMGC can provide you with hands-on training in state-of-the-art computer technology.
These program requirements are for students who enroll in the 2019–2020 academic year. For prior year academic requirements, visit the catalog archive in the Current Students section.
About the Computer Networking Undergraduate Certificate
Through the computer networking certificate program, you'll learn about the fundamental aspects of computer troubleshooting, networking, network security, interconnected Cisco devices, and Windows server installation and configuration. Plus, you'll get a chance to choose from upper-level courses so you can tailor your degree to your career goals.
What You'll Learn
Through your coursework, you will learn how to
- Evaluate, install, configure, and maintain computer hardware components and operating systems
- Select an appropriate network design
- Assess and mitigate risk, evaluate and select technologies, and apply network security safeguards
- Configure and manage Cisco switches within multiprotocol internetworks
- Install, configure, and troubleshoot Windows Server operating systems, including domain and network services
- Resolve IT system problems and meet the needs of users by applying troubleshooting methods
Coursework Examples
In past projects, students have had the opportunity to
- Configure and manage Cisco switches within multiprotocol internetworks, including VoIP, wireless network protocols, and routing protocols
- Manage and troubleshoot features of Windows Server operating systems, including Active Directory, DNS, Group Policy, Desktop Security, Remote Access, Windows Deployment, and User Accounts
- Design, develop, and write effective technical documents
Industry Certification
This program can help prepare you for the following certification exam(s):
- Cisco Certified Network Associate (CCNA)
- CompTIA A+
- CompTIA Linux+
- CompTIA Network+
- CompTIA Security+
- Installing and Configuring Windows Server exam, part of MCSE Server Infrastructure Certification
- Other exams, depending on which upper-level electives you choose
Computer Networking Undergraduate Certificate Requirements
Our curriculum is designed with input from employers, industry experts, and scholars. You'll learn theories combined with real-world applications and practical skills you can apply on the job right away.
Required Courses
- A supporting elective chosen from any upper-level CMIT courses
Overall Certificate Requirements
- To pursue a certificate program, you must be admitted as a UMGC student.
- You are responsible for notifying UMGC of your intention to complete certificate work before completion of your last course.
- You can pursue a degree and certificate simultaneously or pursue a degree after completing the certificate, but you must apply for a certificate before you are awarded the degree.
- If you apply for your certificate after your degree has been awarded, you may be required to complete additional coursework for the certificate. Contact your academic advisor for more information.
- You may not use the same course toward completion of more than one certificate. In cases where the same course is required for two certificates, you must replace that course with an approved substitute for the second certificate.
- No more than half of the total credits for any certificate can be earned through credit by examination, Prior Learning portfolio credit, internship/Workplace Learning credit, or transfer credit from other schools.
- Certificates consisting primarily of upper-level coursework may assume prior study in that area. Check prerequisites for certificate courses. Prerequisites for certificate courses can be satisfied by coursework, credit by examination, or Prior Learning portfolio credit, under current policies for such credit.
- At least half of the total credits for any certificate must be earned through graded coursework.
- You must complete all required coursework for the certificate with a minimum grade of C (2.0) in all courses for an undergraduate certificate. Certificate courses cannot be taken pass/fail.
Career Preparation
This program is designed to help prepare you for work in network administration for corporate, government, or nonprofit organizations.
Student Clubs and Organizations
Type: Student organization
Available To: Undergraduate and Graduate
The Computing Club aims to create a dynamic environment where members can work collaboratively, share innovative ideas, enhance their career-readiness, and gain marketable experience in their respective fields.
About the Faculty
Our world-class faculty members combine academic credentials with a wealth of experience in the field.
Faculty members in this program hold or have recently held positions including
- Chief information officer
- Chief technology officer
- Network administrator
- System administrator
Our faculty work or have worked at organizations including
- Anne Arundel County Public Schools
- Defense Cyber Crime Center
- State and federal agencies