text:
For months, the Bush administration has pressured the government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki to take steps toward bringing the warring groups together and tackle Iraq's violent militias and corruption. But the Iraq Study Group recommends withdrawing U.S. support if the Iraqis fail to show advances....
For some Iraqis, the statement suggested that the report's authors did not grasp, or refused to acknowledge, the diverse ambitions, rivalries and weaknesses that plague the government. The Kurds have dreams of creating an independent state. The Sunnis appear leaderless, yet seek a political voice. The Shiites are riven by feuds. There are disagreements over partitioning Iraq, over whether to restore members of Saddam Hussein's Baath Party to their old jobs, over whether amnesty should be given to opponents of the government and the U.S. occupation....
Sammarai, the Sunni lawmaker, said the Bush administration has a responsibility to fulfill its pledge to bring democracy to Iraq, in which minorities will have a voice. "Because of their mistakes, it is so complicated now," Sammarai said. "Now, they say, 'We're going to leave the Iraqis to solve their problems.' "
December 7, 2006
"It is a report to solve American problems, and not to solve Iraq's problems."
45 comments:
- goesh said...
Whatever will all those terrorists do if our boys and girls come home? Millions of terrorists instantly sprung to life when the first American boot was placed on Iraqi sand. Will they now return home to herd goats and sell Western knock-offs and cloth, after their victory-over-the-infidel parades that is? Will they find easier pickings elsewhere, like car bombs at resorts where infidels flock to wallow in decadence and sin? If you can blow up armed American troops, you sure ought to be able to shred some fat tourists in hotels. It would be like some well earned R&R for the lads. You know...take a month off Abdul, go to an infidel beach, feed the seagulls with their body parts, relax, get some sun, listen to the waves. We are entitled to this worrisome consideration, after all, we wrung our collective hands when women's panties were placed on the heads of prisoners.
- AllenS said...
What will they do? Well, they'll kill each other for a while, until some top Islamic leader will remind the ones that are left, that Israel is just over the hill. They will be assured that Americans will not intervene in that battle, except for Bill Clinton ("I'll grab a rifle...").
- Derve said...
We destabilized their country.
Bombed their homes and infrastructure, killed families in bombing, took away the leaders they tolerated and the polical system they had that was keeping tribes from slaughtering each other. It worked. It was a system working for the majority.
Now, typical American arrogance, we run away from a problem we had a hand in creating. Corporational type warfare in other lands. Just NIMBY.
Lots of evil leaders and regimes out there: where should we "help" next, do-gooders?
This action didn't help America. Didn't help Israel. Didn't help the Iraqis (spare me the sob "before" and torture-room stories). Some day, some of you will catch up and recognize that. In the meantime, beat your chests and denigrate the Iraqi people.
Nevermind Darfur or working first to clean up abuses in say, America's prison programs. We are American saviours, policemen to the world. We are winners, not losers. And if we can't win, we call off the game. 21st Century America. It's not backward-looking: what our father did in the fight, who they were -- it's who our brothers and sons are, what they have invested in their country today.
- Derve said...
And remember, worldwide we're competing against more brothers and sons, sisters and daughters too, than ever before. And they're hungry and smarter than we may know.
Underestimating our enemies and fellow competitors -- not taking this war game seriously from the very beginning, infighting amongst ourselves making other political parties the enemy instead of concentrating criticism on improving performance right away, correcting course, doesn't work well in reality. Are we all there, at least? Or will the rhetoric dominate, like we still haven't realized the stake at hand, the scope of things unleashed from the Pandora's box we have opened...
- monkeyboy said...
"It was a system working for the majority."
See: Slavery, Southern
See also: Burdern, White Man's
- Derve said...
Who worked out that problem of American slavery? America.
Not outside intervention.
- monkeyboy said...
Slavery was a problem?
It was a stable area of the country, no problem to anyone outside the area, and a system working for the majority.
My G-G-Uncle was promised he was going to be greeted with flowers, he was promised he would be home by Christmas (he was, six years later.)
All we did was create the KKK and get thousands of African Americans lynched that would have been alive if not for a bloody war.
- Ron said...
Thank goodness Southerners didn't consider Grant and Sherman "outside intervention!" "See? They're Americans just like me!"
- Simon said...
- This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
- Derve said...
Thanks Simon. Beat your chest a little harder and pony up your plan for winning over there? Oh yeah. Blame others.
Your type never did care much about actually winning and fulfilling all those promises, eh? It the appearance that matters, the arrogance of thinking you can just pay not to be a loser.
"I'm not a real cowboy; I just play one on tv." Yippikieyay and ride on away... leave yer stinkin mess for another day! :) Mission accomplished.
- AllenS said...
Derve, I've read your comments to this post a couple of times, and for the life of me, I can't figure out the point you're trying to make. Is it just aimless anger.
- Alexander Wolfe said...
Yeah, "we". As in America. I for one would love to place all the blame entirely on the idiots who created this war and mismanaged the occupation, but since it was my country that invaded, I get a share of the blame. So do you. So does Derve.
Incidentailly, Derve is lamenting that we're going to bail on the Iraqis. Maybe you didn't understand that part.
- Simon said...
Xanthippas said...
"Incidentailly, Derve is lamenting that we're going to bail on the Iraqis. Maybe you didn't understand that part."
How is that incidental, and how can you seriously suggest I didn't understand that part? That was the whole point I was making: Derve is "lamenting that we're going to bail on the Iraqis," ("bail[ing] on the Iraqis" being a coy euphemism for "cutting and running") despite the fact that "bail[ing] on the Iraqis" is the policy and the platform of the party she supports. If Derve is so cut up about cutting and running, maybe she shouldn't have supported a Democratic Congress!
- Cedarford said...
The Sunni reaction by folks like Samarrai are amusing: You Americans can't leave! You owe us! Sure, we Sunnis are responsible for 98% of American casualties, 40,000 dead Iraqi civilians, sabotage of the whole reconstruction thing,,,,but if you leave, you'll screw us! Saying we must meet milestones or you stop protecting us from the Kurd and Shia militias is offensive to our tribal honor! All we have are snipers, IEDs, and car bomb factories! Our blood will be on your hands!
And equally amusing is a Leftie like Derve.
* - It's ALL America's fault! We destabilized their happy desert paradise and put panties on their heads!
* - Moooooooaaaaaannn! Oh, the lives of those too stupid for college, terroristic war criminal, torturing Bible-thumping Red Staters being lost is just too much for us San Franciscans to bear....*Sob. sob.* That is why we are running on our heroes Pelosi and Murtha's banner. Out now! Prosecute the War criminals! No more Vietnams!
* - You mean people are actually thinking seriously of "cutting and running"?? From a little election and change of Congress? Gutless Red State cowards! "Now, typical American arrogance, we run away from a problem we had a hand in creating."
* - And what about Darfur?? What about our supreme moral obligation to intervene and die so Muslim doesn't butcher Muslim? How can we just sit back and fail to send the troops in to save them?
Lordy, lordy, it's just precious. The American and EuroLeft get the fruits of their labor - governments determined sit on their asses, sacrifice nothing, not to intervene in Muslim civil wars or genocides and determined to watch their sacred UN and Kofi-God be ineffectual.
Secular progressive Jews at the ACLU and other places get what they wanted in working so hard to defeat the evil Bush-Hitler torturers and civil liberties takers....Precious enemy rights placed as paramount over US citizen's rights....And a Congress willing to cut Israel loose.
How sweet it must be for Derve!
A PS Historical footnote: Who worked out that problem of American slavery? America.
Not outside intervention. Derve.
Actually, the British Royal Navy, after *spit* British Christians made their government agree that slavery was unacceptable...ended the practice of slavery in their colonies (except Muslim areas where resistance to ending slavery triggered Jihad) and more importantly - stopped all global shipment of slaves on the High Seas long before our Civil War.
- vegetius said...
I gotta' wonder why no one ever tries to get the story from someone who's been there
The ISG never wandered outside the Beltway.
- Balfegor said...
Or will the rhetoric dominate, like we still haven't realized the stake at hand, the scope of things unleashed from the Pandora's box we have opened.
I'm rather surprised hearing this kind of thing from you. Usually, the punch-line, after this kind of buildup, is "Let's nuke Mecca!" Or possibly some other invitation to genocide.
In all honesty, though, I think that what you have said is really applicable to the populations in the Middle East -- or rather, the dictators who have led them, and the criminal gangs (e.g. Hizbullah) who control them from the margins, had no idea what they were preparing when they spent the past 50 years cultivating their hatred of the US. It bubbled over in 2001, and they're getting massive blowback. Sow, reap whirlwind, sleeping dragons lie, etc. The blowback is comparatively mild, at the moment, even if it's toppled two governments already, but I think, before this is finished with, that there is far greater suffering in store for them and their peoples.
All that aside--
"It is a report to solve American problems, and not to solve Iraq's problems."
Uh, James Baker headed the group. Can anyone be even remotely surprised that this is the case?
- Harry Eagar said...
I suggest they hold that conference in Munich.
- Bruce Hayden said...
I esp. appreciated Cedarford's comments here. The Sunni Arabs are beleagured now because they have been murdering innocent civilians with increasing abandon and brutality. They are trying to use this brutality to regain control, or at a minimum, gain much greater power in the country than can be justified given their 15-20% of the population.
- Simon said...
This critique of Baker-Hamilton by Robert Tracinski is great: Captain Obvious to the rescue. It reveals Baker-Hamilton's basic tautology:
"The problem in Iraq is that we can't withdraw US troops because the Iraqi military is not adequately trained to maintain security on its own? Well then, the ISG tells us, all we need to do is to train the Iraqi military so that they can maintain security on their own, and then we can withdraw our troops.
The problem in Iraq is that the Iraqi government won't approve a crackdown to dismantle the Shiite militias? Well then, all we have to do is to convince the Iraqi government to approve a crackdown to dismantle the Shiite militias."
More at the link.
- Bart Hall (Kansas, USA) said...
Average daily American military fatalities, 1775 to 2001: 14. Since 2001: two.
The ISG report (and I've read a fair chunk of it) is the last gasp of a fading generation -- straight out of 1978, and about as relevant as the Wang Programmable Calculator of that same era.
It will eventually be seen as the addle-brained relic of consistently unsuccessful multi-lateralists, but for now it's got its 15 minutes of fame.
Like the drunk who finally understands (s)he had to have every single drink to get to the point of deciding to deal with the problem, we must (as we did in 1938) go through this phase in order to be so fed up with the approach that we'll finally sweep it out of the way and do what we have to do to end the threat.
The current problems were caused by the 1925 - '43 generation's naive hope that "if only we talk to each other we can prevent war." We won't solve these problems by further applications of the same mentality that created them.
- garage mahal said...
Just because you couldn't talk to our adversaries, or work out a deal, it doesn't mean that someone else can't. If we're afraid we might get a bad deal, then we're sending the wrong people to negotiate.
The model we should follow is Libya 2003. Remember them? They had all kinds of nasty chem/bio weapons, much more advanced than Saddam ever had. But the U.S. and Brits worked out a great deal with back-door diplomacy, behind the scenes. No more WMD, and routine inspections. I know this doesn't give you, or neocons a big boner, but really, it seems to me the best end result.
- Simon said...
"The model we should follow is Libya 2003. Remember them? They had all kinds of nasty chem/bio weapons, much more advanced than Saddam ever had. But the U.S. and Brits worked out a great deal with back-door diplomacy, behind the scenes."
The reason that the Libyans gave up their weapons in 2003 wasn't just because we cut them a deal, it was precisely because, in 2003, it looked like the United States were both willing and able to get tough with regimes like Iraq and Libya! They gave up those weapons because we'd just flattened Saddam, and they were terrified that they were next!
- The Jerk said...
They gave up those weapons because we'd just flattened Saddam, and they were terrified that they were next!
That isn't true. Read the Suskind book for an account of what actually happened. Libya's capitulation was primarily caused by a long-standing diplomatic effort. The Iraq invasion played a small role, if any.
- monkeyboy said...
How long will "a long standing diplomatic effort" take with Iran and Syria? and what happens to the Iraqi people during all this?
Not that I'm against talking, buts its not a bloodless choice, and unless we put some serious pressure on those two it may all end up costing a lot.
- garage mahal said...
The reason that the Libyans gave up their weapons in 2003 wasn't just because we cut them a deal, it was precisely because, in 2003, it looked like the United States were both willing and able to get tough with regimes like Iraq and Libya! They gave up those weapons because we'd just flattened Saddam, and they were terrified that they were next!
I'm sure your're is at least partially correct. But if you're totally correct, we should be able to pack up and go home, and not worry about the ME again. There are some decent articles in the WSJ Opinion Journal, (if you can stay away from Judy Miller) on the Libya deal.
But really, the internet is raining idiots saying we can't talk to any country, under any circumstances, and cite some bullshit WWII analogy. The fact is, alot of our "enemies" have cooperated with us fighting terrorism.
- Balfegor said...
The model we should follow is Libya 2003. Remember them? They had all kinds of nasty chem/bio weapons, much more advanced than Saddam ever had.
Oh, forget Libya. The model we should follow is South Africa<, which actually succeeded in developing nuclear weapons, and had one of the most advanced chemical and biological weapons programs in the world. And then gave it up.
Of course, our failure to contain South African weapons development back in the 70s is probably one of the reasons we ultimately decided to invade Iraq. They told us (and the Soviets) they'd terminated their weapons program, after the Soviets detected what they thought was a nuclear test. They lied (shockingly enough). It just went underground.
Anyhow, given that South Africa is, I think, our one successful experience with putting the genie back in its bottle, that ought to be among our guiding cases.
- garage mahal said...
Of course, our failure to contain South African weapons development back in the 70s is probably one of the reasons we ultimately decided to invade Iraq...
We invaded because they didn't have WMDs, not because they did. They were warned not to invade by several Arab countries who knew better, but truth be damned. Israel reduced a country to rubble over a few kidnapped soldiers, but wouldn't take action against Saddam's weapons stockpiles, or a nuke program?
We would have just bombed sites, instead of sending tens of thousands of Americans into a hellfire of chem/bio weapons, IMO.
- Simon said...
The Jerk said...
"That isn't true. Read the Suskind book for an account of what actually happened."
You mean the Suskind book that cites absolutely no sources, and that everyone denies contributing to? I'm sure it makes for great reading, but I'm not sure we should resort to borderline fiction to understand history. You might as well tell someone that they can understand what was really going on in the Soviet Union in the 1980s by reading a Tom Clancy novel, although at least then they'll know they're being swindled.
- Cedarford said...
The Garage Mahal revisionism is wrong. While several countries urged us not to invade for other reasons, all were convinced that Saddam had WMD. That was Jordan, Syria, Egypt, KSA security, the Turks. On top of Germany, UK, Russia, Israel, and China believing that Saddam was cheating on chem and bio weapons and "mixed" on what they believed about nukes and missile development. The disagreement on the war was over containment vs. invasion..which many feared would destabilize the region. Many took the WMD as a given - but said the UN, inspections, and sanctions could still do the job....
Many, inc Jordan and Russia, had specific HUMINT, multiple-sourced within Iraq that TOLD them they had heard it straight from Saddam.
What had happened was Saddam had done the same ruse with his own Generals and Muqubarat and ministers...who leaked out that some Saddam Feyadeen and some Republican Guard units had the stuff. At the beginning of the war, Iraq's generals were all convinced that some other generals were waiting on orders to launch and in interviews said they were scared the Americans would show no mercy once hit with special weapons.
It never happened.
Only a few in an inner circle of Saddam's most loyal followers knew it was a lie Saddam had devised to intimidate his neighbors - a lie he could not take back without suffering great humiliation.
Vegetius - gotta' wonder why no one ever tries to get the story from someone who's been there
The ISG never wandered outside the Beltway.
The ISG was organized to serve as a macro perspective team - not to do man in a bunker interviews or man in the seething Arab street interviews.
If they had, they could have issued a good report that said what the soldiers want is more 1st-run movies, call-home cards, and bug spray and that we were winning in Iraq and the soldiers were kicking ass and meeting all sorts of "great Iraqis". Conversely, if they spent time with the seething, angry Arab street they would have reported the "Real Problems" were Israel, lack of devotion to Islam, hereic Shiites, Western pornography and cartoons needing to be censored, and lack of US money sent to the angriest Arabs.
Groups like the ISG, 9/11 Commission, the Welfare Reform and Social Security Commissions of the 80s are set up to maintain a certain distance from those directly involved but of limited insight or perspective - but which might affect the commission's objectivity if they were listened to, too closely.
You typically wait and get those "stakeholder's opinions" when the report is issued or in a review and comments phase.
In the ISG group, comments upon issuance...where global, regional and USA leaders are weighing their own opinions on it and those of their GI or Jihadi or Sally Sixpack or Ahmed the bazaar merchant constituencies...and powerful wealthy lobbies like Israel's and KSA's and Hezbollah.
Actions follow comments, which are assimilated along with the ISG Report recommendations by key people like Bush II, Pelosi, Warner, Ayatollah Kameini, Omert, Prince Abdullah, Sistani, Gen Abizaid..in charting actions..
- knox said...
It was a system working for the majority.
I'm pretty sure the Sunnis comprise only about 20% of the Iraq population. Not sure how you figure that to be a majority.
We destabilized their country.
Iraq was "stable" under Saddam?
- knox said...
If we leave before things are stabilized, they have every right to be pissed at us. However, that's what the democrats have been pushing for since day 1, so not sure where a lot of the complaints from that end are coming from...
- vegetius said...
"macro perspective" = blithering generalities..
As I understand it:
None of the ISG is under 67 years of age, none served in the military, none did recent extensive travel or service in the region...not exactly my dream team for fresh alternatives. Geriatric wonks gone wild.
- Balfegor said...
We invaded because they didn't have WMDs, not because they did.
What I mean is that in the past, we'd been told by other powers that "yes, our nuclear program is over and done with," and we were lied to. So when the Iraqis came up and told us that they'd terminated their nuclear program, we knew not to take them at their word. They wouldn't show the all remnants of the program, establish chain of custody, etc. -- the stuff necessary to verify. They were playing games with us, the UN, and the inspectors, so we came down on them.
You are correct, though, that if they had nuclear weapons already, we wouldn't have risked invading.
- Derve said...
"If we leave before things are stabilized, they have every right to be pissed at us."
We've got you on record with that one, knoxgirl. Let's all just keep watching, shall we?
- Derve said...
With tears in our eyes, as necessary.
But whatever happens, don't you dare avert your eyes and look away. You can watch and remember, if that's the least you do.
And then show me how much chest thumping the US does. (That's us you're referring to, right? the United States?)
- Balfegor said...
But whatever happens, don't you dare avert your eyes and look away. You can watch and remember, if that's the least you do.
This is good advice for the wreck we (or rather, we and our European allies) made of the entire Middle East after WWII. Saddam, Assad, Sadat, Mubarak, the Shah, Khomeini, the Saudis -- they are all of them emblematic of our failure in the Middle East. We were, and in some cases, still are the enablers for their crimes. They could not have come to power without us, or without the Soviets, or the French, or the British, and so on down the line. We looked away before, and were content with the annual sacrifice of innocents, with the rape rooms and the electrodes, with the mass executions and the occasional slaughter, so long as the oil continued to flow. That was, in retrospect, a mistake. And it will be the same mistake again, if we choose that solution for Iraq.
- The Jerk said...
You mean the Suskind book that cites absolutely no sources, and that everyone denies contributing to? I'm sure it makes for great reading, but I'm not sure we should resort to borderline fiction to understand history.
Wow, people deny contributing to a book that makes their boss look bad? You're right, it must be fiction! I've come around to your view. We should ignore an actual account of the events and instead go with the explanation that comports with your ideological predisposition. Because, of course, we see how George's big stick scared the Iranians and North Koreans into abandoning their nuclear programs.
- knox said...
With tears in our eyes, as necessary.
But whatever happens, don't you dare avert your eyes and look away. You can watch and remember, if that's the least you do.
And then show me how much chest thumping the US does. (That's us you're referring to, right? the United States?)
What the hell
- Cedarford said...
vegitius - As I understand it:
None of the ISG is under 67 years of age, none served in the military, none did recent extensive travel or service in the region...not exactly my dream team for fresh alternatives
You don't appear to "understand it". If you had looked up the group you would see 6 of 10 members had military service. Hamilton, O'Connor, possibly Jordan, and Simpson did not - though I believe if I dug deeper, I would find Simpson had some reservist military status...and Hamilton is a foreign intelligence expert of high bipartisan admiration.
All members visited Iraq for around a week in July-August. Perry, Eagleburger, Baker have extensive ME backgrounds and countless visits and consults with the key regional players. They met with over 30 major Iraqi figures here or in Iraq. Their staff met with Israelis, Turks, Saudis, Syrians, and Iranians.
The 10 members had 44 staff with extensive military and diplomatic backgrounds working up the report and interviewing.
Derve, sorry, but I say "what the hell??" too. You've lost us in your incoherence.
Balfegor - all of them emblematic of our failure in the Middle East. We were, and in some cases, still are the enablers for their crimes. They could not have come to power without us, or without the Soviets, or the French, or the British, and so on down the line. We looked away before, and were content with the annual sacrifice of innocents, with the rape rooms and the electrodes
No, all you do by blaming America and other nations is cast Muslims as helpless little children not responsible for their own messes. The same transnation forces are at work globally and no other region save Africa is as dysfunctional as the bulk of the Muslims are.
- Bruce Hayden said...
Actually, the problem goes back before WWII, to the aftermath of WWI, when the victors were splitting up the remains of the Ottoman Empire. Some have placed the blame on Churhill, but others on Gertrude Bell. She conceived of Iraq and groomed its first monarch, Emir Faysal of Mecca. She loved the Sunni Arabs, but apparently had a deep distrust for the Shia. She blamed them for the revolt against the British at the end of the war, and they didn't fit her picture of the romantic Arab. And the Shia recipricated her dislike. So, she made sure that her type of Arabs ran the country. And the rest is history. Except for a brief period of time between when Faysal's grandson, Faysal II, was overthrown in 1958 and another coup in 1963, the Sunni Arabs ran Iraq for the intervening 80 years. As the Sunni Arabs became ever more beleagered, esp. after the First Gulf War, they became ever more brutal in their subjection of the Shia and Kurds.
So, after we overthrew Saddam Hussein, the Shia and the Kurds effectively took control of their country, in keeping with their now approximately 85% of the population. But violence and brutality worked before, so it should work again, and that is what the foreign born terrorist, notably those under Zarqawi, and the Ba'thists tried to do, upping the ante as their power disappeared.
But this time, they didn't have the guns or the army to back them up. Rather, they were now in the hands of their enemies, the Shia and the Kurds, thanks to our intervention. So, they got ever more brutal in their indiscriminate mass murder of innocent civilians. And finally, after years of cautioned restraint by their clerics, the Shiites finally started striking back (though mostly in a much more highly targetted manner against those who have participated in the murder of Shiites and their families). And that is why many think that there is a civil war going on now.
- Bruce Hayden said...
I suspect part of the commission's problem is that they listened a lot to some of our traditional allies in the Middle East - esp. the Saudis. But the Saudis are also the ones who talked the former President Bush into abandoning the Marsh (Shiite) Arabs and the Kurds in the aftermath of Gulf War I, after he had pushed them to rebel.
The Saudis are grossly compromised here as far as their objectivity. As noted above, they see this as a war between Sunni Islam, led by themselves, and Shia Islam, led by Iran. And after 80+ years of brutality by their type of Arabs keeping the Shia and the Kurds under their thumb, it is now payback time. And the Saudis would love an excuse to jump in and protect the remaining Sunni Arabs in Iraq. This would accomplish a couple of things. First, and probably least important, it might save some of the ever more beleagured Sunni Arabs in Iraq. More importantly, it would split the forming Shiite crescent in the heart of Islam, running from parts of Pakistan and Afganistan, through Iran, Iraq, and into Lebanon and Syria. It would also contain Iran, completing its encirclement of that country.
But because of this, if the Saudis themselves, or some surrogate of theirs, intervenes, the Iranians will most likely feel compelled to do the same. And blood will flow. A lot of it.
Nevertheless, they would still love for us to give them the excuse and the cover to do so.
- Cedarford said...
Hayden, the only problem with your "it's all Sunni Arabs" doing scenario is that before Gertrude Bell & Co ever arrived, the Sunni Ottomans ruled with Jewish and Sunni Arab agents doing most the scutwork and tax collections and with the Shia and Kurd oppressed. Before the Ottomans, you had Sunni Mamlukes, before them, the Mongol equal opportunity killers, and before that a Sunni Arab Caliphate ruled over the ME.
The matter of Shiite and Kurds being second fiddles to the Sunnis goes back over 1,100 years to the defeat of Ali and the subjugation of Kurds to Sunni conquerers and then the Kurds having sporadic off and on periods of limited autonomy, starting 900 years ago.
Blaming the schisms of Islam's sects and ethnicities on Europeans is like Koreans blaming America for the division and the 2 millenia of problems the Koreans had with China and Japan.
- Balfegor said...
Re: Cedarford:
No, all you do by blaming America and other nations is cast Muslims as helpless little children not responsible for their own messes. The same transnation forces are at work globally and no other region save Africa is as dysfunctional as the bulk of the Muslims are.
They are, of course, responsible for throwing up tyrants and dictators and the like. And no one ever told them to set up rape rooms or to torture dissidents or whatever (I think -- frankly, I wouldn't put it past Carter, because as has come out in the past few years, his government actually gave the go-ahead on the Kwangju Massacre in Korea).
But we are responsible too, because we actively intervened by picking and choosing among the forces at work then, and choosing the forces we thought would work best for us. Given our wealth, when we decided to put our influence, weaponry, and knowhow at the disposal of the people who emerged as the middle east's new rulers, after the collapse of the earlier (saner) Ottoman empire, we made it very difficult for rival powers to establish themselves. Not impossible -- the revolution in Iran demonstrated that. And many of the Arab states played us and the USSR off against each other. But difficult.
Infantilising the people Middle East is, obviously, an asinine thing to do, whether it's the old "Wogs can't do democracy" thing, or the more modern "Whites ruined everything" thing. But while they're all their own peoples, screwing up catastrophically as people tend to do, we shouldn't shy away from the fact that we have proven, in the past, a decisive influence in Middle Eastern affairs, and that we're dealing with a system that emerged out of the choices we made in the postwar period, both after the Great War, when the European powers divided the Middle East up, and after WWII, when we and the USSR divided the world up. And in retrospect, many of those were bad choices. Understandable at the time, but if we could go back and make them all over again, I don't think we'd do it quite the same.
- Harry Eagar said...
I agree with most of what Bruce says, but it can be boiled down quite a bit. If America is a nation of principle rather than realpolitik (and it used to be, sometimes), then there is a principle at stake here.
Any statement about revised policy has to begin with words like these:
'Because the American commitment to democracy and peace is based on self-determination of the peoples, the United States supports and will defend the existence of a free and independent Great Kurdistan.'
Full stop, as the Brits say.
Of course, if we did that, the Turks, Russians, Persions and Arabs would be pissed at us. There's no downside, is there?
My position before this idiot war was started was that if you wanted to bring down Saddam, all you had to do was arm the Kurds.
- hdhouse said...
I thought our pledge was to rid Iraq of WMDs not bring democracy to Iraq. Or was it to topple Saddam? Or was it to fight the Taliban over there so we wouldn't have to fight them over here? Or was it to bring democracy to the region? Or was it to build a democratic and independent Iraq? Or was it WMDs again?
I dunno. What? me worry?
No wonder there is no way out. Damned if we stay, damned if we leave. This is a fine mess you've gotten us into Ollie.


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2003. National Ocean Service Hydrographic Surveys, Richardson, Andy, Coastal and Marine Geology Program (Geological Survey), Wong-Coppin, Virginia, and California. Department of Fish and Game. Marine Resources Region. This raster dataset is a mosaic resampled to 200 meter horizontal resolution for areas of sparse data occurrence. Vertical units are fathoms (integ... California. Department of Fish and Game. Marine Resources Region.

subset: commoncrawl


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Luke 18: 9-14
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Luke 18: 9-14
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…at least not all the way. Some ministries of the church are in action, others are not.
Ministry is Continuing!
To date we have shared around $7,000 with our local community to help relieve those affected by coronavirus, and we have another $2,000 we will be distributing now. This has gone toward food, diapers for families in need, rent & mortgage relief, and other purposes.
Thank you for continuing to worship with us—our YouTube videos get around a hundred views each week, and in some cases, there are multiple people watching one screen. Thank you for listening. And thank you for your continued financial support.
We are going to be doing some new things in the interest of our own spiritual health, fellowship, and the ministry of the church. The first is drive-through communion (or drive-thru, as it is frequently written).
Drive-Through Communion — Sept 6th, 9:15-9:45am
If you wish, you're invited to drive through our parking lot on Sunday, September 6th from 9:15-9:45am and I will serve communion to you. You are just as welcome to partake of communion from home, as we've done the last few months.
Fellowship Bike Ride — Sept 13th, beginning at 1pm
On Sunday, September 13th we will have an FPC Bike Ride. We will meet at FPC and go on a 10-mile bike ride led by John and Jean Stewart. Maps of the route will be provided, and a shorter route will be available if needed. Some of the route will be on streets and some on dedicated bike paths. Meet us in the parking lot at 1pm, and we will depart by 1:15.
Zoom Bible Study — every Tuesday morning from 8-9am
If you'd like to join us for Bible Study we will begin on Tuesday, Sept 8th, from 8-9am. We will meet via Zoom so you can enjoy breakfast and coffee from home. The zoom link will be available on our First Pres Logan Facebook page each Tuesday morning.
My role as pastor is to be a spiritual guide, someone who helps each of you on your faith journey (and as you might imagine, you help me just as much). I confess to you that feeling like we are connected and in touch these months has been a struggle. Continuing to not meet in person remains one of the more challenging decisions of my career in ministry. I want to see all of you each week. Worshiping at home via YouTube is certainly just as pleasing to God as when we gather and sing, but it doesn't feel the same to me, and I'm sure it doesn't feel the same to you. Hopefully, some of the above activities will help us with that.
In the Presbyterian system the pastor does not make decisions about all of the activities and happenings around a church. The pastor leads worship, teaches through Bible Study and similar endeavors, provides pastoral care, and participates in many other diverse activities around the church and community. We have Elders and Deacons who take on other responsibilities, including making decisions about church activities (reserved for Elders, who serve on Session). Who does what around a church (and how we do it) is outlined in the Book of Order, which covers all kinds of things. But as you can imagine, there isn't a chapter titled What To Do in Case of Worldwide Pandemic.
The Elders that we elect as a congregation (you elect them, Pastor Meg and I do not vote) make many important decisions for each congregation, although pastors frequently share their thoughts and offer guidance for any vote that is taken. The Session of FPC Logan met on Wednesday, August 19 and voted unanimously to continue with online worship for at least the next month (until the next Session meeting, on September 16th). At that meeting we will reassess the situation and take another vote for the coming month (or months). Session made this decision because we don't feel it is safe for us to be in the same room for an hour together. Some people may be willing to take the risk. I am not, and neither are your FPC Elders. Of particular interest is the effect that the return to school will have on coronavirus numbers. Public schools and the Utah State University are back in class now, with both online and in-person classes. Also, of great interest is progress in vaccine trials. We are praying that one (or several) of these vaccine trials provides good news in the next few months.
May the grace and peace of Jesus Christ be with you all,


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ATI Radeon HD 4870 X2 - AMD Back On Top
Intro, Specifications and Related Info
The Radeon HD 4800 series didn't overwhelm NVIDIA's GTX 200 series with raw performance. In fact, the GeForce GTX 280 and 9800 GX2 were more powerful than the Radeon HD 4870. The Radeon HD 4800 series cards, however, were still excellent cards and they were offered at extremely competitive prices, which put significant pressure on NVIDA. At the time of their launch, the Radeon HD 4850 and Radeon HD 4870 were both less expensive and more powerful than the GeForce 9800 GTX and GeForce GTX 260, respectively. Since then, NVIDIA has reacted with a quick round of price cuts.
While enthusiasts were contemplating the purchase of a new Radeon or GeForce, AMD then planted another seed and released some concrete details regarding the Radeon HD 4870 X2, as if to say, "Yeah, we've got you covered at the $300 price point and a new, ultra powerful behemoth is coming real soon too. Maybe you should hold onto your upgrade money for a bit?"
That behemoth is the Radeon HD 4870 X2. As its name suggests, the card features two RV770 GPUs running in tandem, for what is effectively a Radeon HD 4870 CrossFire configuration on a single PCB. Other than its pair of GPUs, however, the Radeon HD 4870 X2 has a few more differentiating factors we'll need to tell you about. Read on for the full scoop...
ATI Radeon HD 4870 X2 Cards (Codename R700)
ATI PowerPlay
ATI Avivo HD Video and Display Platform
As the above list of specifications and features show, the new Radeon HD 4870 X2 has the exact same features as the Radeon HD 4870; it just has two GPUs. Like the other members of the Radeon HD 4800 series, the Radeon HD 4870 X2 offers DX10.1 and Shader Model 4.1 support, the GPUs are manufactured on TSMC's 55nm process node, and both support ATI's CrossFireX multi-GPU technology.
Because we've covered essentially all of the shared features of the Radeon HD 4800 and 3800 series cards before, we won't be going into them in depth again here. However, we would recommend taking a look at a few recent articles to brush up on the tech if you're so inclined.
AMD acheived this feat by increasing the population of the architecture's SP count from 320 on the older RV670 to a 800 on the RV770. AA and Z/Stencil performance were enhanced as well, and the number of texture units was increased from 16 to 40. The 800 stream processing units are grouped in a new SIMD core layout, and the texture units, ROPs, and cache have been restructured to minimize transistor count, while also increasing performance. With the RV770, AMD claims that the SPs in the GPU offer 40% more performance per square millimeter that the previous generation, and that more aggressive clock gating offers improved performance per watt as well. Likewise, the newly streamlined design of the RV770 texture units reportedly offer 70% more performance per square mm with double the texture cache bandwidth and large increases in 32- and 64-bit filter rates.


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Listings in Certified U.S. Coins, Bullion, Dollars, Germany and Appraisals in Arizona
Empire Coin & Valuables
Business Contact: Mauricio Romero
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Business Contact: Russell Calkins
in Bullion
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(520) 335-0007
Fax: 5205590810
Republic Monetary Exchange
Business Contact: Jim Clark
in Bullion
4040 E Camelback Rd
Phoenix, Arizona 85018
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Spot On Precious Metals
Business Contact: Andrea Finkelstein
in Bullion
8777 E Via De Ventura
Ste 390
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- News
- Business
- Sports
- Entertainment
- Lifestyle
- Health
- Travel
- Technology
Countries in Europe and Asia promote an alternate form of transportation to the four-wheeled, polluting vehicles we most often drive in Canada. Many of these places are far friendlier to cyclists and motorcyclists than Canada, and they're more accustomed to sharing their roadways with two-wheeled vehicles.
Due to Canada's climate we have only six months in a year in which choosing a motorized two-wheeler is possible, but is this all that is stopping Canadians from leaving their cars in the garage and choosing a more environmentally friendly option?
In a society that puts so much emphasis on the reduction and offset of personal carbon footprints, it's still difficult for many Canadians to find the motivation to make changes. Other than the obvious benefit to the environment, Canadians need better reasons to change.
Should our government incentivize the use of motorized cycles? Cities such as Toronto, Edmonton and Halifax already have regulations in place to provide free parking for motorcycles and scooters because they produce fewer emissions and use less parking space than cars, but what about the rest of Canada?
Urban centres are moving to encourage the use of bicycles by providing easy, safe storage of bikes, and the benefit is twofold. Not only is it better for the environment, but studies show that a workforce who regularly cycles to work will be more fit and healthy and take less time away from work for illness.
Vancouver and Calgary offer a parking fee break and designated parking spaces for motorcyclists and scooterists; while this is a start, why is it taking so long for the federal government to get on board?
Although bicycle and roadway laws are generally governed provincially, the federal government could assume a mandate to have a greater influence. If it would move to providing a tax relief to bike commuters, electric scooter riders and motorcyclists and provide a free-parking incentive to daily travelers, we would see a shift it the way our society commutes. We would benefit from less congested city centres, less carbon emissions and a healthier society in general.
Kelly Connor is the creator, designer and author of City Mom, a blog that follows her adventures raising a daughter in the heart of downtown London, Ont.


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venue: Samoset Resort, Rockport, Maine
planner: Kate Parker, Kate Parker Weddings
florist: Kate Parker, Kate Parker Flowers
officiant: family friend
ceremony musicians: Krysia Tripp
reception band: Flipside, Murray Hill Talent
dessert: Market Basket Rockport, Maine
videographer: Morgan, emilie inc. photography
photo booth: Maine Snapshot Studio
hair: Kim Doll, Exquisite Hair Design, Rockland
make-up: Beauty Mark Spa, Camden
gown: Rivini, Nitsa's Apparel, Charlotte
honeymoon: Kenya and Tanzania
The first thing I noticed when I met Blair and Andrew and started listening to their families and guests was everyone's warm southern drawl. Out of place, but so welcome in Maine, the sweet accents shared stories of how nearly all of their 200 guests traveled to Rockport and their adventures along the way, as well as toasts (and roasts!) about the couple at the rehearsal dinner the night before. It was the perfect introduction to a most fun wedding day.
After the ceremony they scrapped some of the formalities (no dinner toasts or cake cutting) and got right to the fun stuff, including a custom curtained-off section of the ballroom to house our photo booth (this group is known for getting a bit rowdy in photo booths we hear!) with props that many donned throughout the night on the dance floor, right through the "lobster claw" send-off at the end of the evening.
A healthy handful of the day's highlights below!
Andrew and his father, the best man.
Stunning modern decor by Kate Parker.
Powering up for the reception. Ha!
Andrew takes his love of Maine very seriously.


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Stephen A. Smith & Skip Bayless Sound Off On Ryan Clark For Trying To Clown Stephen!
Stephen A. Smith & Skip Bayless react to Ryan Clark comments
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You are currently browsing the tag archive for the 'anime' tag.
A few weeks ago, I visited the bukatsu "club" scene at the public middle school that my son is attending. We checked out the art club because my son who has won awards at art exhibitions and often has its works exhibited on a regular basis wanted lessons on oils and other mediums to further his skills. But when we arrived at the club in session, we saw an all-girls' class with each of them working on manga illustrations. Even though the art teacher was a truly experienced art teacher and professional, she told us that the club would not be doing anything BUT manga illustrations … apparently, that's all students are interested in these days.
However, if we have a kid inclined in that way, maybe we should acquaint our kids with the hard facts or figures regarding career prospects. Today's edition of the Daily Yomiuri, "SOFT POWER HARD TRUTHS/Anime ills" reports that:
"Anime employees in their 20s earn an average annual salary of 1.1 million yen, and those in their 30s earn an average annual salary of 2.14 million yen. Worse, veteran artists in their 40s and 50s survive on roughly 3 million yen per year. And most of them live and work in Tokyo–one of the most expensive cities in the world…Nearly 50 percent of the respondents are working on spec (without contracts), and nearly 40 percent have no healthcare coverage whatsoever." Those are the figures given by Anime News Network, the largest English-language anime news Web site from its survey received responses from at least 700 anime producers and directors.
1 million yen is likely less than what an average sarari / salaried man earns on his bonus in the course of a year's earnings. Those salary figures are pretty shocking and smack of a poverty line really. I have a friend who graduated from an art university but mostly freelances for book cover illustrations and such. As we visited the Ghibili Museum together, she explained to me that a talent for drawing is not enough to work in the manga/anime industry. You need to not only be really really gifted at drawing, but you must really like to be constantly drawing at a hectic pace. My sister-in-law worked for over ten years in Tokyo as a design artist, she spent years designing company products and souvenirs, but in all those years, she could not afford the rent in her tiny one-room apartment in Shibuya.
The article also tells us that "that anime and manga are no longer selling as hard commercial products to Japan's next generation. They may be downloaded for free…so there's no profit in that" … and that "[t]he industry is focusing its efforts on the dwindling and ever more effete demographic of fortysomething (or arafo, "around forty") otaku–mostly single males who are seeking a kind of sexual-romantic therapy via so-called moe, or soft-core porn, titles…By producing erotic anime, the industry is abandoning titles for children and sophisticated adult consumers."
On the other hand, there is one field related to the industry that is currently potentially lucrative – that of the skill of creating digital content. Digital Hollywood University is a place that turns out "professionals who can create "digital content" or transform it into many different forms." According to the university's website, "Manga" and "anime," are highly profitable digital content that Japan has long brought forth and that "Manga" and "anime" are now in the process of being digitalized, gradually spreading to overseas countries" and the school at the same time focuses on English skills, because it is the international lingua franca of "digital content". The website explains that until recently "different industries dealing with broadcasting, newspapers, publishing, music, movies, or video games have developed independently. However, because of the rapid increase in the use of computers and the Internet in the past few years, all these industries are now integrating into a single industry, under the name of "digital content." The total sales in the digital content industry now is estimated to be tens of trillions of yen. It is believed that the digital industry will grow to be one of the biggest industries in Japan."
Prospective anime/manga students should be encouraged to visit the annual Tokyo International Anime Fair and Digital Content Expo to feel the buzz on the industry. And do lots of research on the field first, one place to start is Digital Animation School.
Hardcore kids deadset on manga/anime careers are advised to truly evaluate their abilities/talent … lest they end up drawing anime/manga erotica … in a few years' time!
Read the entire article here (link will expire in a couple of weeks' time).
Anime schools:
The Tokyo National University of Fine Arts and Music: http://www.geidai.ac.jp/
See article Tokyo Art University Establishes Anime Art School
The Tokyo National University of Fine Arts and Music has established a Masters degree graduate school intended to instruct would-be anime filmmakers and movie directors. While Tokyo University and Keio University have included anime as a part of the curriculum, this is the first time it a Japanese university has gone so far as to establish a graduate school with such a major emphasis on anime creation.
The establishment of the school is being hailed as academic recognition of the global popularity of Japanese anime. The new graduate program will feature major fields of study including movies, animation, and media video. Based in Yokohama, the 70-student program is set to begin during the 2005 academic year.
In related news, Tokyo University has announced plans to establish a program intended to raise students able to compete in the global animation and videogame industries. Anime directors Mamoru Oshii and Katsuhiro Otomo, Studio Ghibli Producer Toshio Suzuki, and manga artist Takehiko Inoue have reportedly all been invited to participate as instructors.
Until now, individuals hoping to learn about animation had little choice but to attend minor vocational schools. The rush by Tokyo's prestigious universities to incorporate animation-related curricula is being seen by many as strong evidence of anime's rising position in Japanese culture.
Source: Animaxis.com
Yoyogi Animation School
(Yoyogi Animeshon Gakuin)
1-20-3-CS-4 Yoyogi
Shibuya-ku, Tokyo 150-0001
Fax: 0120-210-595
e-mail: email@example.com
Courses Years
Animation 2
CG Animation/ Games 2
Voice Acting 1
Digital Animation Artist (Digital Ink & Paint) 1
Manga/Comics 1
Animation Production Management 1
Background Artist 1
Animation AV Operator 2
Animation Camera 2
Illustration 2
Junior Novels 1
Music Artist 2
Music Business 2
Multimedia Creator 1
Tokyo Designer School
(Toukyou Dezaina Gakuin)
2-11 Suragadai
Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 101
Courses Years
Animation 2
Game Creator 2
Character Design 1
Computer Graphics 1
Manga/Comics 1
Illustration 2
Toho Gakuen Professional Training College of Film
Courses: Movie・Music Video・Animation・Novel・Comics
1-18-25 Takadanobaba, Sinjuku-ku, Tokyo,169-0075
College of International Design
(Kokusai Dezainkarejji)
2-22 Asahi-cho
Kouchi-shi, 780
Courses Years
Graphic Design 2
Interior Design 2
Architecture 1
Manga/Comics 1
Amusement Media School
(Amyu-zumentomedia Soukou Gakuin)
2-29-8 Higashi
Shibuya-ku, Tokyo 150-0011
Fax: 03-3406-5070
Courses Years
Voice Acting 2
Game Creator 2
CG Animation Creator 1
Multimedia Creator 2
Manga/Comics 1
Computer Game Creator 2
Novels 2
Comics 2
Animator 2
They also have night courses for other areas of interest.
Toei Animation Institute
(Toei Animeshyon Kenkyuujyou)
Surugadai Bldg.
1-2-5 Surugadai Kanda
Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 101
http://www.toei-anim.co.jp (Japanese)
Toei has just built their own school.
Courses Years
Digital Animation Artist (Digital Ink & Paint)
Background Artist
Tokyo Animation School
(Toukyou Animeta Gakuin)
3-4-9 Mizakicho
Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 101-0061
Fax: 03-3234-2469
CG Games
Voice Acting
Animation Character Designer
Background Artist
Airbrush Illustration
Junior Novels
Japan Manga Institute
(Nihon Manga Gakuin)
1-3-98 Nishinakanobe
Shinagawa-ku, Tokyo 142
Fax: 03-3785-0298
Career School Fare
(Kyariasuku-ru Fa-re)
Part of Tokyo Designer School
4-16 Sakurahamachou
Shibuy-ku, Tokyo 150
Various Manga/Comics
Kodansha Culture Center
(Kodansha Karucha Senta-)
1-15-12 Toranomon
Minato-ku, Tokyo 105
Fax: 03-3501-3674
Comic Illustartion
Illustration 24
Multimedia Art School
(a-to gakuen)
3-8-7 Nishi Azabu
Minato-ku, Tokyo 106-0031
Courses Years
Special Animator 1
Animation Content (?) 1
Technical Art 1
Story Comics 1
Digital Comics 1
Tokyo Game Designer Institute
(Toukyou ge-mudezaina-gakuin)
1-47-3 Yoyogi
Shibuya-ku, Tokyo 151-0053
Animation Creative
Digital Animation
CG Animation & Game Character Design
CG Animation & Games
Voice Acting Talent
Game Creator
Here are links suggesting other animation schools:
Animation/cartoon related colleges and university listing (pdf)
Best Animation Schools – including After Effects, Premiere, Flipbook, Flash and Dreamweaver; Autodesk Maya; Anime Studio; Apple Shake; and Pixar RenderMan. School of Film and Digital Media resources also include a Vicon motion capture system.
Computer Animation School Review – online resource for finding the right animation school, program or degree. You can find training courses in graphic design, drafting, digital media, television or film editing.
Anime Gakuin (Japanese only)
Students who are interested in anime/manga careers should also visit the annual Tokyo International Anime Fair and Digital Content Expo.
You might also like to view this more general listing of universities and colleges focusing on arts & culture: http://www.bunka.go.jp/culture-online/jp/relation/university_list.html
— By Aileen Kawagoe


text: So I read with interest today this distribution-related tidbit from NTS MediaOnline: Cumulus Media-owned Westwood One has announced an agreement with NextRadio that will enable all U.S. radio stations to use advertising inventory to fund the industry's payments to Sprint. Over the past year, broadcasters have been asked to commit dollars and/or inventory to fund the Sprint NextRadio Initiative, which plans to sell at least 30 million FM receiver-enabled smartphones in the next three years. Broadcasters can now meet their commitment by providing two minutes per station per day (Mon-Sun/ … [Read more...]


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(PhysOrg.com) -- University of Arizona family studies professor Bruce J. Ellis has developed a theoretical framework for understanding how elements of change and stress often guide the behavior of young people.
Researchers at the University of Arizona are trying to understand how childhood experiences, especially stress, affect young peoples' development, in particular their sexual development.
Bruce J. Ellis, a professor of family studies and human development at the UA, is engaged in ongoing research, trying to separate out the effects of noxious, harsh environments, such as those associated with poverty and depressed neighborhoods, from unpredictable events such as moving, changing schools and changing parental arrangements.
The findings may have implications for reducing hazards associated with youth, drug and alcohol abuse and early pregnancy.
Ellis, who studies pubertal timing and sexual behavior, is the John and Doris Norton Endowed Chair in Fathers, Parenting and Families in the Norton School of Family and Consumer Resources at the UA. His work centers around how evolution has shaped the brains of children to detect and encode information from their environment, information that guides their development.
"One of the most striking things about human sexual development is simply its variation," Ellis said. "If you visit a fifth grade class you'll see that some kids haven't started puberty yet, and some look like small adults. In high school tenth and eleventh grade some, particularly boys, still look like children. Some of the girls look like they could be 21 years old. There's tremendous variation."
There also is variation when young people start forming relationships. Ellis said some of them will form long-term, committed relationships that last a lifetime. Others end up with many different sexual partners and engage in behaviors that are much more problematic. Likewise, some will become pregnant or father children in their teens, and others will wait several years before they have children or may not at all.
Traditionally, Ellis said, the thought has been that stress is cumulative. Growing up in poverty and sketchy neighborhoods, living with abusive parents or other adults, poor child care and other forms of adversity all add up to induce "disregulated behavior and malfunctioning."
Ellis's body of theoretical work and experimentation contrasts with standing theory. His most recent published article, "Fundamental Dimensions of Environmental Risk: The Impact of Harsh versus Unpredictable Environments on the Evolution and Development of Life history Strategies," appeared in the journal Human Nature. The journal's editors described Ellis's paper as "... a seminal contribution to life history science."
At its annual meeting in August, the American Psychological Association gave Ellis the 2010 George A. Miller Award, which recognizes the best recent theoretical paper in general psychology. It was the second time in five years that Ellis has received the award, the only scientist to win it twice.
In the article, Ellis and contributing authors Aurelio Jose Figueredo in the UA psychology department, Barbara H. Brumbach in the psychology department at Northern Arizona University, and UA research scientist Gabriel L. Schlomer synthesized theory and data from the field of life history evolution to advance a new theory of variation in human development. They examine how harshness (externally caused levels of death and disability) and unpredictability (variation in harshness over time and space) influence the rates at which individuals physically develop and reproduce.
"What I'm arguing is that harsh environments are important, as is cumulative exposure to stress. But above and beyond that there is something critically important about the level of change in unpredictability in the child's environment," Ellis said. "The developing brain appears to be especially attuned to environmental change and ready to accelerate development go to seed early when those changes indicate that the future is uncertain.
"We measure how many times a child has moved, how often a child has changed schools, how many times have the parents changed jobs. And perhaps most important of all, how many parental changes has the child experienced?"
Those parental changes may result from divorce, remarriage, living in foster homes or with other relatives. Ellis said changes in the care-giving environment can be added to form a measurement of the level of unpredictability or change in a child's life that goes beyond poor neighborhood environments or a lack of resources in the household. Unpredictability also impacts parents.
"It's very predictive of the growth of depression in mothers, for instance. And in turn it is predictive of the quality of parenting that the mother and father provide the child. That in turn predicts things about the child, such as how early they go through puberty and how much sexual risk-taking is there." he said.
"In a nutshell, what we find is that children who experience more changes in and around the family environment and have more unpredictable lives tend to engage in earlier, more risky sexual behavior."
Data for Ellis's work comes from the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development that in 1991 began to follow at birth children from 1,359 families across the nation and in every socio-economic background. Information on parenting came from direct observations of parent-child interactions rather than interviews. Socio-economic background was determined by census data.
Gathering information about sexual activity was another story. "The place where it is most challenging is trying to measure sexual behavior because there is only one way to ethically obtain that information: directly ask the teenagers."
Nonetheless, he said, teenagers tend to provide good information when they are teens. Asking the same questions 10 years later and getting essentially the same answers provides good evidence of reliability, Ellis said.
He added that experimental evidence elsewhere has shown that for instance, in a study aimed at young girls involved in the juvenile justice system those who were assigned to an alternative program designed to reduce unpredictability began to shift their behavior toward longer-term goals, control of their own behavior and developing patters of success, productivity and stability. The teenage pregnancy rate in this group also fell by 50 percent.
Said Ellis: "The implications are that when designing programs, youth activities and interventions to help kids, taking into consideration the fundamental importance of having a predictable contingent environment is going to make a large difference."
Explore further


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838 William St, Cape Girardeau, MO 63703
Toll Free: 877-256-6642 Local: 573-334-3029
- 838 William St, Cape Girardeau, MO 63703
Birthday Flowers in Cape Girardeau
Look no further than Knaup Floral Inc in Cape Girardeau, MO for birthday flowers and happy birthday gifts! Liven up any birthday party with a festive bouquet of birthday flowers or surprise them with a cheerful "Happy Birthday" bouquet! Or give them a long-lasting plant or romantic roses. Everyone loves flowers for birthdays!
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Bringing Modern Style To Your Outdoor Space
Posted by
Becky |
View all posts by Becky
1 Comment » | Published in Landscape Design | 1 Comment
I know some of you poor readers were recently blanketed with even more snow, but it is time to start planning for spring and summer and perking up your outdoor spaces. Since so many of you prefer modern and contemporary styles, here are some easy ways to bring a more modern aesthetic to your outdoor rooms.
Box it in. Square and rectangular planters and benches area an easy way to add clean lines to your patio or porch. Mixing in plants clipped plants with those in their natural forms helps emphasize them as well.
Shop modern outdoor accessories
Add bright bold modern furniture. You can mix more contemporary pieces with traditional outdoor spaces, like farmhouses or log cabin porches. These rockers are a modern take on the traditional Adirondack chair.
Go vertical. Is space tight? Look into planting a vertical garden. While this one is a beautiful professional job that looks like art, it's easy to add hanging containers like the ones from Wallter. You can even plant edibles in hanging containers.
Light things up with a jolt of neon. Think about what will make your outdoor space an inviting space at night.
Give the birds a mod little house.
Add squares. Simple pavers are an inexpensive and easy way to add a modern touch to a path, and help organize the space.
Add a groovy retro fireplace. What I love about Modfire is that it's portable and much less expensive than hiring a mason. It adds a bold pop of color and will keep you toasty when you want to hang outside on cool nights.
Do you have any plans to modern up your outdoor rooms this spring? Please share them with us in the Comments section. We'd love to see pictures too! We'll also be adding some of our favorites via Instagram as we come across them on spring house and garden tours.
Hi, I'm Becky. I live in Atlanta. Besides acting as the Editorial Director here on Hatch, you can find me talking design over at Houzz. Make me happy — leave a comment!


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Obama can learn from Madison and craft a deal | Deseret News
This article was originally published by the Deseret News.
Today, with a divided nation, many pundits fear that President Obama will prove incapable of keeping us from falling over the economic cliff. Such challenges are not new, and the past may provide prologue for our future.
During the summer of 1788, with the fate of the Constitution and nation hanging in the balance, delegates gathered in Virginia to determine whether the largest state in a divided nation would ratify the Constitution. Without Virginia, the Constitution was doomed.
Throughout the divisive debates in the Virginia ratifying convention, the formation of regional confederacies seemed as likely as the formation of a more perfect union, under the Constitution.
Anti-federalists, opponents of the Constitution, had the upper-hand. They were led by Patrick Henry, whose charisma filled the room. Henry was a respected former governor, one of the great orators of the revolutionary era.
Federalists, proponents of the Constitution, in turn, were led by James Madison, a man of ideas, who spoke so quietly that all present had to strain to hear. Madison appeared ill-suited to the task at hand, but he had ideas, was willing to compromise, and capable of building coalitions.
On a hot and humid day, with tempers on edge, Patrick Henry rose, looked heavenward and declared, "[Madison] tells you of important blessings, which he imagines will result to us and mankind in general from the adoption of this system. I see the awful immensity of the dangers with which it is pregnant. I see it! I feel it!"
As Henry spoke, lightning struck. Federalist delegate, Archibald Stuart, feared that, "The spirits [Henry] had called seemed to come at his bidding." The elements seemed to conspire against the Federalists and the Constitution and there was little hope that Virginia would ratify the Constitution.
Unmoved by the thunder of words and element, Madison quietly responded by compromising and pledging his support for a Bill of Rights, thereby addressing a major concern of the Anti-federalists. Madison had feared adding a Bill of Rights, because he believed that the wording of such rights would be read constrictively. Nevertheless, he compromised.
Henry warned that Madison would not keep his promise. The delegates, Anti-federalists and Federalists alike, trusted Madison and voted 89-79 to support the Constitution.
With his capacity for bringing people of differing views together for a common purpose – a United States – Madison introduced the Bill of Rights in the First Congress. Despite opposition and intransigence, Madison worked across the aisle building coalitions, believing sound ideas in a time of need could bring people of good will together. Compromise resulted in the adoption and ratification of the Constitution and Bill of Rights.
In his acceptance speech, filled with Madison-like hope, and delivered with Patrick Henry-like eloquence, President Obama pledged to work with Governor Romney and others to unite America. Tempered by the campaign, our president recognizes that our nation's future hinges not on his eloquence but on his capacity to build coalitions and forge a grand compromise equal to the challenges that beset us.
Working with Romney makes sense. Pundits, on the right and the left, have declared an end to Romney's service on the national stage. President Obama, however, might wisely use Romney's talents and courageously evidence his willingness to reach across the divide.
Romney was the Republican nominee because his business background seemed well-suited to solving pressing economic problems. He also garnered early endorsements from Congressional leaders he previously helped get elected. He can call on those he helped and his ability as a problem-solver to assist the President.
Romney working alone will be insufficient. He should co-chair a powerful bi-partisan committee. Hillary Clinton, who is resigning as Secretary of State, would be a superb co-chair. She has experience in working across the aisle and a strong intellect.
The committee could be made up of respected former Senators such as Olympia Snow, Richard Lugar, and Gordon Smith, on the Republican side. Joseph Lieberman, an independent, might be a good choice. On the Democratic side, Senators like Blanche Lincoln, Evan Bayh, and Bill Bradley might serve.
President Obama, Hillary Clinton and Mitt Romney know far better than I who might serve. If the president assured Clinton and Romney, and others, that their ideas will be taken seriously, they will serve, given their commitment to America.
Madison compromised, built a coalition, providing a solid foundation for our nation. President Obama can do likewise and save us from falling off a financial cliff, by drawing hope from the ideas of a powerful bi-partisan committee of his making.


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Public campaign, lead donors and Spirit of Nebraska Pathway program announced
State and local leaders today celebrated Statehood Day today by kicking off the public fundraising campaign for the renovation of Nebraska's Centennial Mall. The seven-block connection between the State Capitol and the University of Nebraska campus was built in 1967 to commemorate Nebraska's 100th birthday. A statewide fundraising team consisting of five former Governors and other volunteers has raised $5.7 million of the project's $9.6 million cost.
"In 2009, the City of Lincoln committed $3 million as seed money to start this process," said Lincoln Mayor Chris Beutler. "We are very excited about the partnerships that have been formed, the support from groups across the State and the generosity of the initial lead donors who have committed funding to help restore this historic Mall to a place of pride for all Nebraskans."
The ceremony at the State Capitol Rotunda also featured the recognition of lead donors and the announcement of the Spirit of Nebraska Pathway program. Other speakers included Lieutenant Governor Rick Sheehy; Campaign Leader Patty Pansing Brooks; Larry Hudkins, Lancaster County Board of Commissioners; Barbara Bartle, Lincoln Community Foundation; Liz Ring-Carlson, State Farm; Parks and Recreation Director Lynn Johnson; and Jeff Searcy, Capitol Environs Commission.
The Mall, from "K" to "R" streets in downtown Lincoln, is an attraction for residents, tourists and the 35,000 fourth graders from across the State who visit the Capitol and Mall as part of their field trip focusing on Nebraska history. Over the years, the condition of the Mall has deteriorated, and it is no longer accessible for all. A master plan has been developed by a team including The Clark Enersen Partners, Bahr Vermeer Haecker Architects, Olsson Associates and Tom Laging. The plan has been approved by the Capitol Environs Commission and the Nebraska Capitol Commission chaired by Governor Dave Heineman.
Construction on the middle three blocks from "M" to "P" streets will begin by early summer 2012. Depending on fundraising, the outer four blocks are expected to be completed by 2014 in time for Nebraska's 150th birthday in 2017.
The redesign will celebrate Nebraska's legacy of stewardship, create durable accessible walkways and provide for optimal flexibility to accommodate a wide variety of activities and uses. Features include:
– The Capitol Fountain and Plaza featuring the Great Seal of the State of Nebraska
– The Nebraska Plaza and Missouri River Fountain
– The Platte River and Ogallala Aquifer plaza areas
– The "Sparking the Good Life" Fountain and Plaza.
The $9.6 million total cost of the project includes a $1.5 million endowment for maintenance. The $5.7 million raised so far includes $3 million from the City of Lincoln; $550,000 from Windstream; $500,000 from the Lincoln Community Foundation on behalf of the Sheila Dickinson Dinsmore Graf Fund; $500,000 from the Lancaster County Visitor's Improvement Fund; and about $1.15 million from other donors. Other funding partners include the Nebraska Environmental Trust, State Farm, the Cope Foundation of Kearney, the Junior League of Lincoln and private donors. The project is sponsored by the Lincoln Parks Foundation.
"Our fundraising team feels a tremendous obligation to reach out across the State and invite everyone to participate in this amazing project," said Pansing Brooks. "Just a few weeks ago, we visited leaders and donors in Kearney, Lexington, North Platte and Scottsbluff. Everyone was supportive and expressed excitement about the vision and plans for Nebraska's Centennial Mall."
"We believe we have a strong obligation to restore this Mall so it can be educational and accessible, not only to the 35,000 school children who visit it every year, but to visitors from across the State and those who visit Nebraska," said Hudkins. "We are thankful for this opportunity to be part of this historic project and look forward to celebrating its completion in a few years,"
"The Lincoln Community Foundation on behalf of the Sheila Dickinson Dinsmore Graf Fund, is very pleased to be part of the Nebraska Centennial Mall project, which is so important to our community and to the entire state," said Bartle. "After 45 years, the need for improvements is long overdue and necessary to make this area safe and beautiful again."
"Nebraska's Centennial Mall has a wonderful location in vibrant downtown Lincoln at the front door of our beautiful Capitol building," said Ring-Carlson. "State Farm is proud to support transforming the space into an exciting destination for all Nebraskans."
The Spirit of Nebraska Pathway is a series of granite and bronze tiles placed along the twin walkways that frame all seven blocks of the Mall. The pathway program provides opportunities to sponsor tiles about famous Nebraskans or to recognize individuals, organizations and businesses. All 93 Nebraska counties will be recognized. It is envisioned that these blocks will become a "mosaic of Nebraskans" and their stories. Tiles range from $1,000 to $25,000.
More information on the project and donor options is available at NECentennialMall.org.
3 Mar


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Activists protest outside #Syria's embassy in #Mauritania
A young female activists addresses the crowd, voicing their demands for an end to the killing in Syria and that Assad and his brutal regime should step down.
A cultural festival in Mauritania was marred by sandstorms
Aziz lack of fashion flair spoiled it for me. What a mess he looks in his robe
Emil Boc resigns after austerity protests, had no idea why Romania signed ACTA
Romania's Prime Minister Emil Boc has stepped down to "defuse political and social tension" after a series of protests against austerity measures. Speaking after a cabinet meeting, he said he had given up the government's mandate as "it is the moment for important political decisions".
Although Romania's economy grew last year, the government has been hit by three weeks of demonstrations.
Mr Boc has imposed a 25% cut in public sector wages and a freeze on pensions. Sales tax was also increased to 24%, in a country seen as Europe's second poorest. Romania said it needed to implement the measures to qualify for the next instalment of a 20bn-euro ($25bn; £17bn) bailout loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Poland put ACTA ratification on hold, and Slovenia apparently regrets its signature, and Emil Boc admitted that he doesn't understand why the country signed ACTA. It appears that opposing politicians are criticizing the government and promising that they will suspend enforcement under ACTA until there are actual public hearings held on the matter. It really is quite amazing that the folks in the entertainment industry, who thought they could ram this through are now discovering how much they've awakened internet users across the globe ever since they shot for the moon with SOPA. ACTA has been on the table for years, and only a few of us "copyright geeks" were paying attention to it. But SOPA really made it clear to huge populations of people just how the entertainment industry seeks to restrict the internet through copyright law… and they're simply not going to take that any more.
Iran arrests several on alleged links to BBC Farsi-language service
Iranian authorities have arrested several people over alleged links to the British Broadcasting Corporation's Farsi-language service, Iran's semiofficial Mehr news agency reported. The report said they produced content and reported to the BBC. It said they facilitated training and hiring of some Iranian journalists and arranged trips abroad for them. It quoted an unnamed official as saying they were active since 2009. It did not name them or say how many were arrested.
In London, the BBC said in a statement that the report "should be of deep concern to all those who believe in a free and independent media." The British broadcaster said it has "no BBC Persian staff members or stringers working inside Iran."
In October, Iran released two filmmakers who were in jail on similar charges. Tehran has accused the BBC of operating as a cover for British intelligence and of hosting Iranian dissidents. Last week the BBC accused Iran of intimidating staff members of its Persian service by slandering them and arresting relatives.
Crime rate soars in Brazilian state of Bahia on fifth day of police strike
The murder rate in Brazil's northeastern state of Bahia has soared during a state police strike that on Saturday entered its fourth day. The state's Public Safety Department says on its website that 51 people have been murdered in and near the capital city of Salvador since the strike began on Wednesday.
The government news service Agencia Brasil says that the murder rate has ballooned 117% increase over the same period last year.
Some 2,000 Brazilian army soldiers and a contingent of 650 elite federal police troops are patrolling the nation's third-largest city while officials and strike leaders negotiate an end to the strike.
State officials have said that about 10,000 of the state's 30,000 police are on strike. They are demanding better pay and bonuses.
The city of Salvador registered a total of 29 homicides over a 30-hour span, amid a crime wave caused by a police strike and despite the reinforcements provided by the federal government.
The city has been plunged in a wave of violent crime since late Tuesday, when the 30.000 members of the Bahia state police force went on strike demanding a 50% pay raise.
Though on Thursday a court declared the walkout "illegal" and ordered police to resume their work immediately, the strike continued until Saturday with spokespersons for the police union announcing that it would not be called off until their demands were met.
The Brazilian government after ordering 2.600 soldiers from Army barracks in Salvador sent to other cities of Bahia, announced it was preparing another 4,000 if the situation gets worse.
The troops went on patrol this Friday in the chief tourism centres of Salvador, a city set to welcome thousands of tourists to celebrate Carnival, one of the most spectacular, massively attended in all Brazil.
Brasilia said that Justice Minister Jose Eduardo Cardozo will travel to Salvador this weekend to personally appraise the situation and decide whether a greater military presence is needed.
Speaking Friday night on regional television, Bahia Gov. Jacques Wagner attributed the crime wave to groups with ties to the police on strike.
via Crime rate soars in Brazilian state of Bahia on fifth day of police strike — MercoPress.


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Hi everyone.
I've been on a long vacation from peak oil because it's so boring and irrelevant to daily life, but today I'd like to pop back in for an update on the situation.
Has anything happened? Not really, if by "happened" you mean any of the things the doomers predicted.
I first began writing on peak oil 6 years ago, in the summer of 2004. Matt Savinar was predicting imminent TEOTWAWKI, and telling folks to run for the hills. Now, 6 years later, I can go out on the street, and nothing whatsoever has changed since 2004. The streets are still clogged with cars going on mindless journeys. People are sleeping in their cars with the engine running to power the air-conditioning. Oil is at $75 and it's not going anywhere. Food prices and availability are completely normal. Plastic Hello Kitty paraphernalia is as plentiful and cheap as ever. Peak oil continues to be a ridiculously over-hyped non-event, just like I always predicted. I thumb my nose at it with impunity. LOL.
The Oil Drum doesn't even bother with new posts anymore. Just recycled versions of the same old "oil spill" post, flopping over and over like a flat tire, wump wump wump. Quite a comedown from the heady days of A Nosedive Toward the Desert in 2007.
Yup, peak oil is yesterday's party. The IEA is yawning and predicting oversupply of oil until 2015. Lucky us. Five more years of "topics for discussion" from Gail the Actuary
Matt Simmons' ongoing nervous breakdown continues to blossom in fascinating ways. Last week he predicted a mass evacuation of gulf states:
"We're going to have to evacuate the gulf states," said Matt Simmons, founder of Simmons and Co., an oil investment firm and, since the April 20 blowout, the unflagging source of end-of-the-world predictions. "Can you imagine evacuating 20 million people? ... This story is 80 times worse than I thought."Source Yah, that's some funny stuff. I think Matt Simmons is about 80 times more mentally unstable than I thought.
More hysterical bullshit from Matt Simmons:
"Mexico's ability to export oil will be over by the end of 2009."
(Spoken prediction made at 35:50 of the interview available here)
The reality:
Mexico exported 1.59 million barrels of crude per day in May 2010.
Speaking of the mentally ill, Mike Ruppert predicted that a nuke would be used on the gulf oil spill in a week to 10 days. That was a month ago. LOL.
"I predict that US Continuity of Government provisions will be activated and that FEMA will, before end of summer, be placed in complete control of the Southeast United States… limited martial law." Source
Colin Campbell, the pope of peak oil, recently caved and became a peak demand believer.
Good job Colin, you ridiculous dumbass. You would have figured that out a long time ago if you had the sense to read Peak Oil Debunked.
"I have changed my point of view about future prices," said Campbell, who used to think the peak in conventional oil production, which he believes happened in 2005, would lead to a relentless price surge.
Instead, the record rally led to a peak in demand in the developed world.
"Peak oil drives prices up in the first place. It has its own mechanism. We're sort of at peak demand right now," Campbell told Reuters from his home in the village of Ballydehob, West Cork. "I think presently the price limit is about $100."Source
Hey, and whatever happened to the much-ballyhooed Export Land Model (insert scary organ chords)? And Jeffrey Brown's 2005 prediction:
"As I said last year, I expect that by the end of 2006 we will be in the teeth of a ferocious net oil export crisis."Source
Stay tuned folks. I've got a few more doomers to scalp before I'm finished.
by JD


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Nintendo has finally unveiled their next console, WiiU. This is an entirely new hi-def console with a tablet controller that allows streaming game content. Read the highlights and our entire liveblog of Nintendo's E3 2011 press conference below. If you missed the press conference, you can watch it now on Gamespot.
Continue reading 'Nintendo E3 2011 conference recap: Wii U unveiled'


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Lesson 32
Signs in America of Jesus Christ's Birth
- Items needed: scriptures for every child, tape or magnets, chalk and eraser, and pens.
- Print the scripture story pictures. Trim the first four pages. Cut each of the remaining pages in half so there is one picture on each half. Number the back of these pictures in the order they were printed.
- Print and cut out the activity visual aids.
- Print or copy one page of "I will prepare for the Second Coming" for each child.
Attention Activity
Show the picture of the fall leaves, the lightening, and the spring buds. Point out that when we see these signs in nature they tell us certain events will soon occur. Ask the children what event each item is a sign of (fall leaves – winter is approaching, lightning – a storm is approaching, spring buds – summer is approaching).
Ask the children what we do to prepare when we see these signs indicating environment changes are coming. (Example: We get the cold weather clothes out. We seek shelter from storms. We prepare our gardens to be planted.)
Show the picture of the star. Remind the children that Samuel the Lamanite prophesied many signs would occur before and at the time of two very important events.
• According to the prophet Samuel what event was the new star a sign of? (Jesus Christ's birth)
Ask the children if they can remember what the other prophesied signs were of Jesus' birth. (If needed, show them the drawings from last week's lesson to help remind them.)
• Why did the Lord reveal these signs to the Nephites? (Helaman 14:12–13, 28) So they might know of His coming, so they might believe in Christ and repent, and so they would have no excuse for not believing.
For the faithful, the appearance of these signs confirmed and strengthened their faith. For those who were not as valiant in their faith as they should have been, or for the wicked, these signs gave them warning and an opportunity to change their ways. They were left without excuse for their nonbelief and would be held accountable for their subsequent actions.
Scripture Story
Tell the following story using the scripture story pictures as visual aids.
1) Many great miracles and signs occurred before the birth of Jesus, but many people still refused to believe. When it came time for the main signs of His birth to occur (a night to be as day and a new star to appear) some said the time had passed for the words of Samuel to be fulfilled. The unbelievers began to make an uproar throughout the land, rejoicing over their brethren who believed saying their joy and faith had been in vain. The unbelievers set apart a day where all those who believed would be put to death except the sign should come to pass.
• Why would the unbelievers wish to persecute and kill the believers? The wicked hearken to Satan's influence. Satan promotes hate, intolerance, and anger, and he uses those who are under his influence to try and destroy righteousness and belief.
• In spite of the challenges to their faith, what did the believers do? (See 3 Nephi 1:8) They did watch steadfastly for the sign of Christ's birth that they might know their faith had not been in vain.
2) Nephi was sorrowful for the wickedness of the people. He bowed himself down and cried mightily to God all day in behalf of his people. (3 Nephi 1:12.) (Note: The Nephi in this account is the son of the Nephi who has been discussed in the past few lessons. Nephi had given his son charge of all the records and had then departed out of the land (and was probably translated).
3) The voice of the Lord came unto Nephi as he prayed saying: "Lift up your head and be of good cheer; for behold, the time is at hand, and on this night shall the sign be given, and on the morrow come I into the world." (3 Nephi 1:13–14.)
4) The words spoken to Nephi were fulfilled. The sun went down that evening, but it was still light as mi-day. There was no darkness in all the night. The sun did rise again in the morning according to its proper order. (3 Nephi 1:15, 19, 21) The sign of a new star did also appear.
• How would you feel if the sun went down but it was still light outside? How do you think the righteous felt when the night did not get dark? (Great joy) The birth of Jesus was something the people had looked forward to for many years. The occurrence of the prophesied signs of Jesus' birth also confirmed their faith.
• How do you think the unbelievers felt when the sign occurred? (Fear)
5) There were many, who had not believed the words of the prophets, that fell to the earth in astonishment and became as if they were dead. They knew it was the day the Lord should be born. They began to fear because of their iniquity and their unbelief. (3 Nephi 1:18)
• Did Satan give up his efforts to destroy people's beliefs in Christ once the signs had been given? No. Satan continued in his efforts by sending forth lies among the people to harden their hearts so they might not believe in the signs and wonders they had seen. (3 Nephi 1:22.)
• How did the people respond to Satan's initial efforts to destroy their belief? For the most part the people did believe in the Lord and there was peace in the land. But after a few years Satan did gain possession of the hearts of the people again.
• What does it mean to "gain possession of the hearts of the people"? Hearts of the people refers to their desires. The people once again desired wickedness
6) The people forgot the signs and wonders and were less astonished when a sign or wonder occurred. They imagined up vain things in their hearts that the signs were wrought by men or by the power of the devil to deceive them. They began to harden their hearts and blind their minds and disbelieve all they had seen and heard. (3 Nephi 2:1–2)
• Why did they wish to rationalize away the signs they had seen? Because their hearts desired wickedness.
• What can we learn about the strength of testimonies that are based solely on signs? As time passes, the importance and value of the signs diminishes in people's thoughts and priorities, and they are easily influenced by Satan to return to their original sinful ways.
• How does someone develop a strong testimony? By living the teachings of the gospel, and by experiencing the powerful witness of the Holy Ghost testifying to their heart of the truth of those teachings.
• Is building a strong testimony something that happens quickly and effortlessly? A testimony grows gradually through a person's efforts to learn and know the truth. No one receives a complete testimony all at once.
7) After several years the Nephite people began to again wax strong in wickedness and abominations, and they chose to believe there would be no more signs or wonders given. (3 Nephi 2:3)
• What other signs and wonders were still to come? (The signs of Jesus' death.) Ask the children if they remember what the signs of Jesus' death were. (Show them the drawings from last week's lesson to help remind them.)
• What did Samuel say would happen to the people if they did not change their ways and repent? Great destructions would come upon them. (Helaman13:6)
Explain to the children that another great event concerning the Savior is prophesied to occur in the latter days. It is also to be preceded by great signs and wonders. Ask the children if they know what this great event is. Give clues if needed. After the children have guessed correctly, put the sign "Jesus Second Coming" on the right side of the board.
Explain that many of the prophesied signs of Jesus' Second Coming are similar to the signs and happenings that occurred at Jesus' birth and death. (Put the sign on the left side of the board that says "Jesus Christ's birth and death.")
Put the scripture references in random order on the board under the sign that says "Jesus' Second Coming." Explain that these scriptures are all prophesied things that will occur before Jesus Christ's second coming. Put the list of items on the board that occurred before or during the time of Jesus' birth under the sign that says "Jesus Christ's birth and death." (Explain that many of these things also occured before Jesus' death.) Have the children look up the first scripture. Have one of the children read it out loud and then draw a chalk line from the scripture to a similar event that occurred before or during Jesus' birth.
Activity Answers
Wickedness among the people increased. (D&C 45:27)
There were many nonbelievers. (2 Peter 3:3-4)
Many of the Lamanites became righteous (D&C 49:24)
There were signs and wonders in the heavens. (D&C 45:40)
The faithful looked forward to the coming of the Lord. (D&C 45:39)
• Why do the faithful look forward to the coming of the Lord? The faithful Nephites looked forward to the coming of the Lord because they knew that through Him and His atonement they could receive forgiveness of their sins. When the Savior comes again upon the earth, he will bring peace for the nations. He will bring safety and joy for all the righteous. The earth will live in peace. Many look forward to that time. They also look forward to the joy of seeing their Savior Jesus Christ.
After all the answers have been made, put the drawings of the signs of Jesus' death on the board and explain that similar destructions and happenings to the signs depicted in the pictures are also prophesied to occur before the Second Coming of Jesus Christ. But we are told that if we are prepared, the righteous need not fear the second coming or the signs that precede it.
Picture Discussion
Once again show the children the pictures of the fall leaves, the lightening, and the spring buds, and ask the children why it is important to prepare for changes in the weather when we see these signs in nature. Our health, safety, and protection may depend on the preparations we make.
Explain that just as we would need to be prepared for upcoming changes in the weather, we also need to be prepared for the Second Coming of the Lord. Only those with strong testimonies will remain steadfast and faithful in the challenging environment of the latter days, and only the righteous will abide the day of the coming of the Lord and be able to live lives of peace and love during the Lord's millennial reign. (Read D&C 45:57)
Give each child one of the papers labeled "I will prepare for the Second Coming." Have them write in each point on the star something they can do to prepare for the second coming. Explain that the signs of light that occurred at Jesus' birth reminds us that Jesus is the light of the world. He is our shining example. Remind the children of the teachings of Jesus and the examples he set as they think of things they need to do to prepare for his Second Coming. Ideas might include the following: keep the Sabbath day holy, pray, read the scriptures, serve others, forgive others, be humble and meek, share the gospel with others, love one another, etc.
• What is the danger of putting off the day of our preparation? Remind the children that building a strong testimony does not happen instantly overnight; it takes time and effort. If we put off the day of our preparation, the coming of the Lord may come upon us and our time for preparing will be past. (Read Helaman 13:38)
Explain that just as righteous Nephites watched and were prepared for the Savior's birth, we need to watch and prepare for Jesus' Second Coming.
Weekly Reading Assignments
Remind the children to do their scripture reading assignment for this week: 3 Nephi 1:1-23 & 3 Nephi 2:1-3