text:
|Preview panel
|September, 2007
|Vaca et al.
|July, 2009
|System and Method for Cyber-Expo Operating Multi-Exhibition and Managing Cumulative Data
|July, 2009
|Kim et al.
|April, 2008
|Lee et al.
|Information searching method, information search system, and search server
|October, 2004
|Nishioka et al.
|Automatic use of a functional index as a primary filter
|November, 2005
|Jenkins Jr. et al.
|Apparatus and method for blocking phishing web page access
|May, 2007
|Choi et al.
|Process control system and process control method
|February, 2007
|Mochizuki et al.
|Syncronization facility for information domains employing dissimilar protective transformations
|June, 2004
|Lavender et al.
|May, 2009
|Bhalotia et al.
|December, 2009
|Takata et al.
[0001] This application claims the benefit of U.S. Provisional Application No. 60/434,863, filed on Dec. 20, 2002. The disclosure of the above application is incorporated herein by reference in its entirety.
[0002] The present invention generally relates to index and retrieval systems, and particularly relates to linked knowledge and information and media content distribution systems between remote communication sites.
[0003] The development of computer systems in general, and the development and expansion of the Internet in particular, has led to many developments in information index and retrieval systems and media content distribution systems. The phrase media content is defined as third party sources that exist independently of this invention, including television, radio, Internet information, print information, print media, professional Journals, expert seminars/presentations, and research. For example, Internet web browsers typically accept user input, perform a search of all media content on the Internet based on a comparison between keywords extracted from the user input and identifying tags associated with the media content, and return hyperlinks to the media content in an order of relevance determined based on a number of successful matches between the user input and the identifying tags. Also, index and retrieval systems of databases and/or cataloging systems typically accept user input, and perform a search of user-specified database(s) or sections thereof based on a comparison between keywords extracted from the user input and text of user-specified sections of media content and/or user-specified sections of media content identification information. These index and retrieval systems typically return hyperlinks to media content and/or identification information directing a user to the media content and/or a source of the media content. The aforementioned and related index and retrieval systems and media content distribution systems, however, have limitations that burden the user.
[0004] Chief among the limitations of the aforementioned and related index and retrieval systems is the vast amount of the media content addressed by these systems and consequent difficulty with focusing a search. This limitation leads to information overload. For example, a user browsing the Internet for information on a particular topic relating to a complex field of study encounters difficulty in eliminating media content unrelated to the topic and/or field of study without also eliminating some media content related to the topic and/or field of study. Also, the user browsing the Internet has difficulty eliminating media content of low relevance to the topic or field of study respective to other media content relevant to the topic or field of study. Further, the user browsing the Internet has no option available for eliminating media content of low quality from the search. Finally, even a searcher of a more narrowly focused database encounters these same difficulties due to the fact that portions of the media content are, with few exceptions, generally treated as of equal value within the more narrow focus of the database. The aforementioned difficulties are further exacerbated by additional limitations.
[0005] An additional limitation of primary concern is the general lack of identified relationships between media content, and deficiency among a few notable exceptions to both maintain quality of media content and indicate a degree of relevance of media content to a topic of interest and/or other media content. This lack of identified relationships is true for print and electronic media. Among proprietary legal databases, for example, Westlaw's Key Cite/Key Number and Lexis/Nexis's Shepherd's Citations features succeed in indicating relevance and irrelevance of case law to a predefined legal issue and/or other case law. These features fail, however, to select media content based on both quality and relevance, and the result is inclusion of case law cited to other case law that is of low quality and/or entirely irrelevant. Also, the indicated relevance and irrelevance are primarily applied to differentiate cites that are relevant from those that are irrelevant. Further, even where relative degrees of relevance are employed, such as Westlaw's depth of treatment stars, these degrees of relevance merely indicate how one case was treated in another case (mentioned, cited, discussed, or upheld). Thus, these and similar relative degrees of relevance indicators fail to operate to accurately indicate importance of one case to another. Still further, these and similar relative degree of relevance indicators are significantly based on preexisting citation of one case to another, and do not generally incorporate a correlation between related portions of media content based on a logical analysis of the media content that identifies underlying dynamics even where preexisting citations do not exist. Finally, previous linked information systems fail to continuously receive new media content, add it to the system, and use a real time analysis to identify internal dynamics of the information and reevaluate, reselect, and reorganize previously selected information of the system in real time. Internal dynamics is defined as the underlying dynamics of intelligent streams of information that carry meaning at many levels, and which are continuously changing, evolving, and being shaped by the flow of events and/or new insights/discoveries.
[0006] The need remains for a media content distribution system that ensures quality and relevance of media content while facilitating user access to desired media content. A solution is required that accurately identifies relevance of media content to topics of interest and to other media content based on a real time analysis of continuously received media content, and organizes the currently relevant information in a manner accessible to users by providing links to information based on the relevance and internal dynamics identified in real time. The present invention provides such a solution.
[0007] According to the present invention, a linked information system employing evolutionary media content links is provided. In another aspect of the present invention, a media content distribution system includes selected media content accessible to remotely located users in an electronic format over a computer network. A further aspect of the present invention selects media content during the course of a human analysis based on relevance to tracked topics. In still another aspect of the present invention, linking of information is operable to identify selected media content according to an organization reflecting relevance of contained information to the tracked topics and to other media content as determined during the course of the human analysis. Yet a further aspect of the present invention employs a distribution module receptive of a topic selection by a user over the computer network and operable to distribute the linking of information to the user over the computer network based on the topic selection. Another aspect of the present invention provides a human analysis that continuously takes place over time to incorporate newly received information and determine change in meaning of previously selected information, and the selected media content and organization information are adjusted based on results of the human analysis.
[0008] The present invention is advantageous over previous media content distribution systems because it works with information in real time, at a point in time, to help decision makers. It also provides a footprint trail (how particular information has developed up to a current point in time) for clues to future development. It further works with information, constantly improving and updating, and provides multiple enriched pieces of information with first, second, and additional level linkages for depth and to assist in identifying trends as pieced together from many, varied sources of information. It still further provides linkages with experts and dissemination of the information, thus providing a seamless link of experts with detailed information. It still further allows a user to get the big picture quickly and explore in depth using first, second, and additional level linkages. Thus, a user can go back and forth between the big picture and an in depth view with a few clicks or keystrokes. Still further, it provides information in an order of importance based on groups of users (not individuals) polled. It is market driven for business and government decision making and automatically reprioritizes information presented for expert comments and initial presentation. It still further has applications in many subject areas, including economics, business, finance, general law, medicine, and technical research. Finally, it aptly couples an artificial agent with a human agent for superior information analysis and handling capability capitalizing on strengths of each agent. It does not rely on artificial agents (computer and software based) to do the work where they are weak, as with detecting internal dynamics and identifying trends within many varied sources of information.
[0009] The preferred embodiment of the present invention is particularly designed to be useful in the filed of business and economics. The field of business and economics is defined broadly as both domestic and international, and relating to business, politics, law, economics, political economy, and all other related fields and information to assist business decision makers in seeing the totality of the picture of events. Further areas of applicability of the present invention will become apparent from the detailed description and appended claims provided hereinafter. It should be understood that the detailed description and specific examples, while indicating the preferred embodiment of the invention, are intended for purposes of illustration only and are not intended to limit the scope of the invention.
[0010] The present invention will become more fully understood from the detailed description and the accompanying drawings, wherein:
[0056] At this time information sourced through a search word or phrase is the primary way of accessing information from such sources as the New York Times and the Wall Street Journal, and this has problems of turning up a huge number of items with some of the material even unrelated to the search word. For instance a search for "U.S. Budget Deficits" on Nov. 20, 2003, turned up 996 entries on the New York Times site all presented without any order of importance and including many unrelated items on Bolivia, China trade, Colombia, Italy etc. This puts a heavy tax on a educated user's or decisionmaker's time as well as expense. In addition to this searches for media content such as Wall Street Journal's Factiva search employ 8,000 sources many of which may be redundant or of relatively low quality, and only clutter and muddy up the results.
[0057] With the present invention as shown in
[0060] The invention is further described below in the form of a media content distribution system that provides organized (linked) cites to users for retrieving media content in electronic form over a remotely located user communications network, preferably the Internet. In particular, the preferred embodiment is engineered to function in view of current Internet protocols, with a novel implementation of existing object code, and with electronic files in the well known Hyper Text Markup Language (HTML) format. The following description of the preferred embodiment is merely exemplary in nature and is in no way intended to limit the invention, its application, or uses.
[0061] According to the present invention and as detailed in
[0062] As an example of organization of media content according to the present invention, consider organization of three articles of similar publishing date, wherein the first article points out the relative impact of trucking prices on particular areas of industry, the second article points out dependency of trucking fees on oil prices, and the third article pertains to rising oil prices. In this case, organization according to the present invention of the three articles includes a link between the first article and the second article, wherein the link points out relevance of the second article to the first article. Further, organization according to the present invention of the three articles includes a link between the second article and the third article, wherein the link points out relevance of the third article to the second article. If the above case is extended to an example wherein a tracked topic relates to investment prospects in a particular area of industry, and the particular area of industry is mentioned in the first article, then organization of the media content according to the present invention includes a link between the tracked topic and the first article, wherein the link indicates relevance of the first article to the tracked topic. As a result of this linking, a footprint trail is developed that leads users interested in the tracked topic to the first second, and third articles. In other cases where the logical reasoning behind relevance of articles to one another is not so readily apparent, the organization includes markup of relevant portions of article contents and, preferably, links directly to the marked-up portions of the articles. Comments can also be added, if necessary, to assist users in understanding relationships between selected and linked information within a particular context.
[0063] Further according to the present invention, users and, optionally, experts review the media content using the organizational information and supplement the media content
[0064] The feedback-based, organization and reorganization of media content in real time according to the present invention is explored in greater detail with reference to
[0065] A media content distribution system according to the present invention facilitates the real time organization and distribution of information to users. As a result, an editor is able to use a logical and intuitive analysis to organize information to make it readily understandable and accessible to users, to track changes in information and in the meaning of information over time, and to adjust the information content and organization in real time to reflect the tracked changes. More details on this logical and intuitive analysis, along with techniques of expert supplementation, trend spotting, and skew adjustment are discussed below with reference to study in the field of economics. It should be readily understood that the present invention is useful with other fields of study.
[0066] Referring to
[0067] In step
[0068] The process by which the information is developed proceeds from step
[0069] Secondary and additional links are also established in step
[0070] Step
[0071] From step
[0072] The real time organizational and reorganizational process embodied in steps
[0073] The organization of information developed according to this promiscuous process is capable of relating information of greatest importance to issues, questions, and decisions of the day. Of great importance, the organized information is not diluted by the presence of relatively insignificant information or information that is out of date. Of equal importance, the linked information conveyed by the bibliographic list consistently has an organization developed by a logical and intuitive analysis in view of the latest available information.
[0074] Information development continues with reference to
[0075] The method proceeds from step
[0076] A method of distributing the developed information according to the present invention is discussed in greater detail with reference to
[0077] Referring to
[0078] Other ways of providing information to users are also included in the method. For example, from step
[0079] The preferred method of providing users access to media content has a synergistic effect as related by step
[0080] The present invention also includes a method for forcing discussion on issues by overcoming organizational issues relating to expert opinions expressed in the media. Without the aid of the present invention, users cannot keep track of all well-informed experts' opinions on critical questions. Also, experts cannot recall or are not aware of all others who expressed opinion on that question. With the present invention, users and experts can see expert opinion expressed on a critical issue at a glance. This capability facilitates and even forces further discussion.
[0081] Referring to
[0082] Referring to
[0083] The reverse of this skew occurs as pessimism clouds perception on the negative side. Negative news events are viewed with a skew in the opposite direction. Both when the skew is negative
[0084] The linked information system
[0085] An issue emerges at
[0086] Verification of the data and information occurs at
[0087] Referring to
[0088] The information is grouped into categories based on a detailed index with subcategories at
[0089] Second level linkages are made for content of information pieces at
[0092] The process by which user feedback is used in selection of questions, issues, and decisions for tracking is explored in greater detail with reference to
[0093] According to the present invention, the premise is rejected that informed streams of information in any subject matter can be tackled successfully by software or computer-based agents acting on their own. Instead, software or computer agents act as enabling elements when coupled with the lead role of human agents. This is because of the internal dynamics of informed streams as more fully explained below.
[0094] First, it is necessary to discover the nature of the information and create some new definitions to create a new understanding of information streams. Streams of information are defined as streams covering a flow of information over a period of time. Informed streams of information are defined as streams that carry meaning at many levels, an underlying dynamic. Like a river flows and has different appearance at different times of the day, or at different points on different stretches of the river, these streams are constantly changing (metamorphosing). Metamorphosing dynamics refers to these transformational changes. The concealed dynamics, like the ground under the river, are not readily apparent. Concealed dynamics are defined as what is not said but must be inferred.
[0095] The process of identifying these internal dynamics is explored in greater detail with reference to
[0096] Examples of linkages and internal dynamics are given below with reference to the field of study of economics. Therein, an information stream is followed with respect to a tracked objective theme corresponding to the U.S. Budget Deficit.
[0097] Example: U.S. Budget Deficit
[0098] 1st Level Linkage (Information Stream October 2001-May 2002)
[0099] 1) Tax cuts and deficit.
[0100] 2) New 2002 budget and deficit.
[0101] a. defense allocation
[0102] b. farm subsidy
[0103] 2nd Level Linkage (Information Stream January.-May 2002)
[0104] 1) Dollar-Euro exchange rate and deficit.
[0105] 2) Foreign capital inflows to finance budget and current account deficits—$2 billion a day.
[0106] Additional Linkages (Information Stream May 2002)
[0107] 1) tax revenues collected lower than expected.
[0108] Delineated Underlying Dynamics (Information Stream October 2001-May 2002)
[0109] 1) Behavioral perceptions: from attitude of deficits are bad (balanced budget) to deficits are OK.
[0110] 2) Politics of Democratic versus Republican political parties
[0111] a. corporate welfare (refunds of alternative minimum tax to corporations) versus extending unemployment insurance payments to laid off employees.
[0112] b. payoff government debt or more tax cuts.
[0113] Metamorphosing Dynamics (Information Stream January-May 2002)
[0114] 1) Bigger government is OK.
[0115] 2) Markets need help.
[0116] Concealed Dynamics (Information Stream May 2002)
[0117] 1) deficits for many years to come.
[0118] 2) uncertain future for economy.
[0119] Following an information stream is further similar to traveling a river in that one finds that at some stretches of the river there are major changes in land surface (big shifts). Big shifts are a result of some series of events that radically change key parameters of the situation, and require redefinition of approach and strategy to successfully accommodate the new dynamics and the big shift. Only human agents can identify such shifts.
[0120] An example of a series of changing events and a big shift, with radical change in key parameters of the situation is given below with references to the field of business and economics. Therein, an information stream is followed with respect to a tracked objective theme corresponding to oil supplies and oil prices.
[0121] Example: Oil Supplies and Oil Prices
[0122] Information stream (October 2001-October 2002) increasingly volatile situation in the Middle East.
[0123] Changing Events
[0124] 1. Suicide bombings and Israeli retaliation.
[0125] 2. Post 9/11 tensions between U.S. and Middle East oil suppliers.
[0126] 3. Proposed regime change and planned U.S.-British invasion of Iraq.
[0127] 4. Increasing U.S. rapport with Russia and modernization of Russian oil industry with increased production.
[0128] 5. Conflicting Russian vs. Saudi Arabian goals as oil suppliers.
[0129] Big Shift
[0130] 1. Shift to greater reliance on sources outside of volatile Middle East region, such as Russia.
[0131] 2. Potential for a return of Iraqi crude oil to the market after regime change and modernization of Iraqi production.
[0132] Changes in Key Parameters and Corresponding Strategy
[0133] 1. Seeking to diversify sources of oil for stable supply, and reduce dependence on volatile Muslin nations like Saudi Arabia.
[0134] 2. Political strategies to establish or promote friendly democratic governments in Middle East such as Iraq and Iran as short and medium term policy.
[0135] 3. By so doing to ensure stable sources of supply of oil at favorable prices to support economic growth for the medium to long term for the world economy.
[0136] A process of identifying and reacting to big shifts in an information stream is explored in greater detail with reference to
[0139] With reference to
[0140] Examples of XML tags for terms which are related are given below:
[0141] [budget deficit]
[0142] [current account deficit]
[0143] [currency exchange rate]
[0144] [country ID].
[0145] According to the XML implementation of the present invention, the name tags can have links to relevant sections of online literature also coded with XML and interaction can point to other linkages. So if budget deficit and current account deficit figures deteriorate, other economic information (interest on debt and capital inflows) can be pulled in and the effect on currency exchange rates tracked to see if it's out of line.
[0147] The contrasting method of the present invention is shown in
[0148] The method of the present invention has several advantages over the previous method of
[0150] Pricing and billing arrangements according to the present invention are discussed in further detail with reference to
[0152] The specific information as viewed by the user is shown in
[0154] The preferred embodiment of a economic index of the present invention is now disclosed in detail. In general, the term Behavioral Aspect Index refers to the indexes and/or sub-indexes as a whole, whether alone or in various combinations. Thus, there may be four or even more sub-indexes, including an initial index (media index), respondent index, such as the user index and/or expert index, and an overall index (composite index). The initial index may have a behavioral part, which may be one of three or more parts of the initial index. The other two parts may be an economic part and an external part. These parts of the index serve as super-categories organizing categories and/or subcategories as further explained below.
[0156] This process is repeated for Experts, in Feedback and response Loop 2 as at
[0159] The index of present invention attempts to capture the market "thinking" and "mood", the "market" is defined herein as both financial and general business activities including the stock exchanges, brokerage and financial firms, pension funds, mutual fund companies, large investors, small investors, firms and corporations themselves.
[0160] The following examples impact the "thinking" of "markets", what is swaying the "market" thinking, what makes it behave in a certain way, and what influences the "moods" and tendencies?
[0161] 1. What are informed people reading to arrive at their own individual understanding of business events?
[0162] 2. What is being said? What are the different opinions being expressed about actions and events taking place. What and where is weight given to and where is skepticism expressed, where disdain and what is being questioned. Together these constitute perceptions about the market.
[0163] 3. There are statistics about the economy, confidence indexes from consumers and business surveys and these are interpreted positively or negatively.
[0164] 4. There is also a sense of mood or feeling, of optimism or pessimism on an index of 1 to 10 when speaking of the economy. Interpreatation of statistics or which statistics are chosen can depend on the mood index of optimism or pessismism. It is a question of how much confidence there is that things will work out as expected.
[0165] 5. Then there is the allowance for surprise. What surprises to anticipate, what surprises to expect, and an assessment of the possibilities of that occurring and the probabilities attached to them. The subjective probabilities are derived from the mood of whether optimistic or pessimistic thinking prevails.
[0166] 6. And then outside the orbit of expected or anticipated possible events, are events that are outside the realm of imagination. How well can these be controlled to limit damage is the question to be asked here, or what opportunities does this open up in the future that can be capitalized upon. Or what suggests temporary setback now but opens up opportunities later on, a kind of mixed situation. Examples are the fall of the Berlin Wall, the collapse of the communist system and the entry of many developing countries into the western economic system. Another is the collapse of long term capital management hedge fund and the rescue effort launched by the Federal Reserve to limit repercussions and shocks in the financial system.
[0167] The Index of the present invention advantageously provides a reasonably reliable tool fashioned out of this material of behaviors, information expert opinion which is easily communicated to decision makers in business, the government, and the financial markets, to supplement or replace the conventional indexes based on Better/Worse responses and government statistics. The vagueness of the conventional Ifo and ZEW indexes have been criticized in a New York Times article on Oct. 5, 2003, written by Mark Landler.
[0168] Traditional Better/Worse response indexes have many detrimental constraints. The amount of information that can be gleaned is mostly directional since the respondent can only respond as better or worse, and neutral responses do not count significantly or not at all. The question of "are things looking better or worse or are they looking much better or much worse?" remains unanswered. Why things are getting better or worse has to be gleaned from outside of the respondent's information by using one's judgment about events at the time.
[0169] In general, market behavior as it unfolds has particular characteristics, the higher the uncertainty level the greater the tendency of businesses to postpone major expenditures in plant and equipment and large investments, until the future is seen as more stable and promising. International crises and volatility in inputs (such as oil both price and availability) provide exemplary elements of uncertainty. Confidence breaking corporate revelations act as a similar brake by introducing the element of uncertainty as to future government regulation and its implications for business and management. To a lesser degree, deficit spending, cost of war and reconstruction, and the lack of pricing power add to uncertainty.
[0170] In addition to uncertainty, other critical characteristics of the unfolding market behaviors which influence business activity are confidence, a sense of basic fairness and equity. These characteristics are critical in influencing the level and vigor of business activity and can itself be calculated as part of the overall Index and as a separate sub-index in itself which becomes a component of the overall Index. For instance, compensation is an equity issue, behavior of corporate board of director members is a confidence issue, behavior of management is a confidence issue, and all ethics issues also translate into confidence issues. Currently nowhere is a conventional index taking into account these characteristics of business processes that are everyday at work in our society and enterprise system and determine their health, vigor and pace.
[0171] An example of a hypothetical behavioral Media sub-Index module constructed in this manner is as follows. The weighting is one-half for a first category, and one-fourth for each of two additional categories: the first is based on the economic aspects in the USA; the second is based on four behavioral aspects specified as uncertainty, confidence, corporate governance, fairness and equity; and the third is based on the external picture.
[0172] The User and Expert sub-Indexes are similarly constructed as the Media Index using user and expert opinion on the same topics as the Media Index. These three sub-indexes, Media Index, User Index and Expert Index can be weighted in various ways and combined to produce a composite index reflecting media, User and Expert views, and sentiment. One weighting scheme places equal weight on each sub-index. Another weighting scheme places fifty percent of the weight on the media index, and fifty percent on the respondent index made up of the two classes of respondents, selected users and selected experts. Thus, the user index and expert index may each be weighted at twenty-five percent. It is envisioned that other classes of respondents and other sub-indexes may be included, and that various weighting schemes can be employed accordingly.
[0173] Sub-Indexes for major European economies can be constructed in the same manner for Germany, France and the UK. and a sub-index can be constructed in the same way for Japan and China. This can thus cover the 6 major world economies. Based on the same structure they can provide a consistent comparison on how each is performing and future expectations, as well as provide a consistent period to period comparison. This gives a consistent integrated view of the world economy for decision makers in business and government.
[0174] A preferred embodiment example of the Index of the present invention uses news clips from the period around September 2003. The + mark next to a topic notes that this topic was given most attention in the media during this period. Two ++ marks notes that this topic got special attention.
[0175] Economic Part of Index:
[0176] 1. Inflation, corporate pricing power
[0177] 2. Budget deficits +
[0178] 3. Dollar and the Current account deficit ++
[0179] 4. Unemployment/Incomes and Purchasing power/Housing Markets ++
[0180] 5. Business Inventories +
[0181] 6. Corporate profits +
[0182] 7. Corporate Debt
[0183] 8. Corporate Investment
[0184] 9. Financial markets—Credit markets
[0185] 10. Financial markets—Stock and Bond markets +
[0186] 11. Systemic Risks—A Range of Risks on Financial system Radar +
[0187] Behavioral Aspect Part of Index:
[0188] 1. Confidence in Business—Corporate governance, corporate behaviors
[0189] 2. Confidence
[0190] 2.1—in financial markets +
[0191] 2.2—in the economy for employment ++
[0192] 3. Fairness and Equity
[0193] 3.1—Management Compensation +
[0194] 3.2—Health Insurance
[0195] 3.3—Incomes
[0196] 3.4—Unemployment
[0197] 4. Uncertainty about domestic political and economic factors
[0198] 4.1—about interest rates
[0199] 4.2—about deficits
[0200] 4.3—about unemployment ++
[0201] 4.4—about the economy in general
[0202] 5. Uncertainty about International political and economic factors
[0203] 5.1—Wars
[0204] 5.2—Reconstruction ++
[0205] 5.3—Alliances
[0206] 5.4—Free Trade
[0207] 5.5—Terrorism
[0208] External or International Part of Index:
[0209] 1. Asia—Japan
[0210] 1.1 Bank Debt
[0211] 1.2 Deflation
[0212] 1.3 Deficits
[0213] 1.4 Yen Dollar exchange rate ++
[0214] 1.5 Government and Political factors
[0215] 1.6 Reforms—Corporate Sector
[0216] 2. Asia—China, S. Korea
[0217] 2.1 Bank Debt
[0218] 2.2 Yuan-Dollar exchange rate ++
[0219] 2.3 Government and Political factors
[0220] 2.4 Economy
[0221] 3. W. Europe—Germany, France, U.K.
[0222] 3.1 Reforms—Taxes, Labor, Pension, Health Care etc. ++
[0223] 3.2 Economic Growth, Deflation, Interest rates and Deficits +
[0224] 3.3 Euro—Dollar exchange rates ++
[0225] 3.4 Government and Political factors +
[0226] 3.5 Reforms—Corporate Sector
[0227] 4. Middle East
[0228] 4.1 Iraq Reconstruction ++
[0229] 4.2 Oil prices and Supplies +
[0230] 4.3 Government and Political factors
[0231] 5. Free Trade Issues
[0233] 5.2 U.S. Trade deficits
[0234] Rolling Topics are used in the Index. Because topics change in importance given from one period to the next and some topics lose significance and can be omitted or hibernated, topics are rolled in to the next period accounting for these changes by editing of the topics. Examples can be given from the the Rolling Topics or subjects for International. The Yuan/Dollar and Euro/Dollar exchange rates became an issue in September 2003. So this is added. The North Korean bomb threat issue was defused after the U.S. success in Iraq and this is omitted or hibernated. Also deflation was not as much of an issue in U.S. or Japan, though still more so in Japan, so this does not get a + mark though it is retained.
[0235] The Index is still stable and solidly anchored as all of the basic categories are included and do not change, all key categories for the U.S. economy and the behavioral aspects and country/region aspects do not change, making for constructive period to period comparison. The Rolling Topic edit and the overall structure of the Index enhance the comparison.
[0236] The following is an example of the Index calculation for a sample component-unemployment under part of the Index. A news clip sample is provided from September/October 2003. Note that WSJ refers to the Wall Street Journal, NYT refers to the New York Times, BW refers to Business Week. Clips refers to clippings of articles and reports from these and other information sources.
[0237] WSJ links:
[0238] 1. A Jobless Recovery?, Allan Meltzer Sep. 26, 2003.
[0239] 2. There's No Such Thing as a Jobless Recovery, Martin Feldstein, Oct. 13, 2003.
[0240] 3. Clues to the Cure for Unemployment Begin to Emerge, David Wessel, Oct. 13, 2003.
[0241] 4. Long a Drag on the Economy, Capacity Glut Begins to Ebb, Greg Ip, Sep. 8, 2003.
[0242] Economist:
[0243] 1. Flying on One Engine, Zanny Beddoes, The Economist, Sep. 20, 2003.
[0244] 2. The Misery of Manufacturing, The Economist, Sep. 27, 2003.
[0245] NYT Links:
[0246] 1. Slowing Stream of New Jobs Helps to Explain Slump, David Leonhardt, Oct. 1, 2003.
[0247] 2. Rhetoric vies with Reality on a Hot Topic: Jobs, David Leonhardt, Oct. 12, 2003.
[0248] 3. Overcapacity Stall New Jobs, Louis Uchitelle, Oct. 19, 2003.
[0249] Business Week Links:
[0250] 1. Jobs: The Turning Point Is Here, P40, Coy,Hof and Arndt, Oct. 27, 2003.
[0251] 2. A Jobs Recovery, Yes. A Hiring Boom, No, Cooper and Madigan, Oct. 20, 2003.
[0252] Insight Links
[0253] WSJ Links:
[0254] 1. False Hopes for the Economy and False Fears, Edmund S. Phelps, Jun. 3, 2003.
[0255] 2. Why U.S. Manufacturing Won't Die, Clare Ansberry, July 3, 2003.
[0256] 3. If Current Recovery Loses Steam, Economy May Face Real Trouble, Greg Ip, Aug. 19, 2003.
[0257] 4. Wall Street Journal Left Behind Series and Less Sweat More Tech series of articles and reports including the following:
[0258] a. A New Blue Collar World, Ansberry, Jun. 30, 2003.
[0259] b. Laid Off Factory Workers are Finding Many Jobs are Drying Up for Good, Ansberry, Jul. 21, 2003.
[0260] Insight Links
[0261] WSJ Links:
[0262] 1. False Hopes for the Economy and False Fears, Edmund S. Phelps, Jun. 3, 2003.
[0263] 2. Why U.S. Manufacturing Won't Die, Clare Ansberry, Jul. 3, 2003.
[0264] 3. If Current Recovery Loses Steam, Economy May Face Real Trouble, Greg Ip, Aug. 19, 2003.
[0265] 4. Wall Street Journal Left Behind Series and Less Sweat More Tech series of articles and reports including the following:
[0266] a. A New Blue Collar World, Ansberry, Jun. 30, 2003.
[0267] b. Laid Off Factory Workers are Finding Many Jobs are Drying Up for Good, Ansberry, Jul. 21, 2003.
[0268] Insight Links, balancing information and skew correction are further as follows. Insight Links are clips that bring a well respected author's view to a difficult issue for example, Insight Link I above. They can also bring an insightful view of the issue from a reporter's angle. Because they take a longer view they may not be precisely from the period considered, in this case September-October 2003. As with the author's view, Insight Links 1 above, can bring a balanced view of things, not tending to biases in either direction, and correct skews and imbalances in reported thinking, also pointing out the reason for these skews or imbalances. Insight Links provide a broad perspective.
[0269] Content Links are also now discussed. Content Links are links contained in the article or report. For instance, they include Experts or well informed appropriate sources whose views the writer has obtained and quotes. For example, Uchitelle in the New York Times article extensively quotes the views of Procter and Gamble executives who describe their costcutting efforts to tackle the manufacturing overcapacity they are facing. It shows how this impacts unemployment and wages, possibly a microcosm of what may be unfolding across a range of companies and industries in economy as of that time period.
[0270] A calculation framework for the Index is also discussed. The views expressed can be considered as Strongly Favorable with a +2 (100 points), Favorable with +1 (80 points), Neutral with a 0 (60 points), Unfavorable with a −1 (40 points), Strongly Unfavorable with a −2 (20 points). Each of the news clips can be considered for the view expressed favorable or unfavorable and the strength of the view expressed as strongly favorable or strongly unfavorable. If the view was not favorable or unfavorable or saw both a balanced upside and downside to the situation this can be considered as neutral.
[0271] An exemplary points index for the Unemployment component for the Economy portion of the Index for September/October 2003 is as follows.
1. Meltzer +1 80 points 2. Feldstein +1 80 points 3. Wessel +1 80 points 4. Greg Ip +1 80 points
[0273] Economist:
5. Beddoes −1 40 points 6. Bureaus around the world 0 60 points
7. Leonhardt 1 −1 40 points 8. Leonhardt 2 −1 40 points 9. Uchitelle −1 40 points
10. Coy, Hof, and Arndt +1 80 points 11. Cooper and Madigan −1 40 points
[0277] The total points for the 11 source clips is 660 points, with an average of 60 for all 11 source clips. This reflects an overall neutral view with upside and downside fairly balanced. Manufacturing faces structural changes which increase unemployment. Companies serious cost cutting efforts also increase unemployment and put downward pressure on wages. But as the economy improves there is cautious optimism for improvement in jobs in the future. However, there is considerable uncertainty as to the duration and resilience of the recovery. A longer term Insight view casts doubt on the frames for the discussion of a recession and recovery, when the current situation may be a return to more normal times.
[0278] A resilience test for Index points is further discussed. The following are ways the resilience of the points index can be tested.
[0279] 1. Excluding a clip as in this case No. 5 Beddoes. This gives an index of 62 points. Beddoes gives an overall perspective of the economy which is critical but not directly related to employment.
[0280] 2. Review the Wall Street Journal and New York Times clips on unemployment throughout this period for a second look. For the WSJ this showed the 2 series on unemployment through the "Less Sweat, More Tech and Left Behind" article which give a detailed picture of the real world of employment at different companies in different geographic regions and in different industries. The New York Times also showed some of this real life and real world situation beyond the statistics. Browsing revealed 2 clips worth mention.
[0281] As Factory Jobs Vanish, Sweet Talk Could Turn Tough, Lydia Polgren, Oct. 12, 2003. This NYT clip is about the closure of the Carrier Coporation plant in Syracuse causing a loss of 1200 jobs.
[0282] In Business: A Corner Transformed and Jobs Created, Carin Rubenstein, Sep. 21, 2003. This clip is about a Westchester, N.Y. company Fortunoff that received 9000 applications for 700 new jobs at its new store there.
[0283] 3. Add a 12
[0284] Spotted: Evidence that Tax Cut Worked, Edmund Andrews, Oct. 19, 2003.
[0285] And the following most recent WSJ clip.
[0286] Leading Indicators Index Falls 0.2%, Greg Ip, Oct. 21, 2003.
[0287] New Clips:
12. Andrews NYT 0 60 13. Greg Ip WSJ 0 60
[0288] This leaves the points index at 60 where it was before this addition. With the new clips added, the evidence still shows at best a cautious optimism with a real awareness that some of the structural changes now underway in manufacturing are here to stay and unemployment is unlikely to go back to what it was in the boom years.
[0289] The points component for the other components of the economic part of the Index are calculated in a similar way. The clips are show below by component.
[0290] 1. Deflation, corporate pricing power clips:
[0291] All Links:
[0292] 1. Cloud over Sun Microsystems: Plummeting Computer Prices, Tam, WSJ, Oct. 16, 2003.
[0293] 2. Consumer Price Index Up 0.3%, Mostly Because of Gasoline, NYT, Oct. 17, 2003 (A 2.3% increase for 12 months ending September 2003, core prices excluding food and energy up only 1.2% September 2003 over September 2002).
[0294] 3. What Happened To Deflation, Miller, Arndt and Berner, BW, Nov. 3, 2003.
[0295] 2. Budget Deficits:
[0296] All Links:
[0297] 1. Deficit May Pass $500 Billion Mark, McKinnon and Ip, Sep. 9, 2003.
[0298] 2. Sound Biting the Deficit, Editorial, NYT, Oct. 4, 2003.
[0299] 3. Deficit Doubles But Falls Far Short of Forecast, Edmund Andrews, NYT, Oct. 21, 2003.
[0300] 4. Washington's Fiscal Fantasies, Editorial, Business Week, Oct. 13, 2003.
[0301] 3 The US Dollar and Exchange Rates with Yuan, Yen and the Euro:
[0302] WSJ Links:
[0303] 1. Leave the Yuan Alone, Chen Zhao, Aug. 14, 2003.
[0304] 2. China Won't Let Currency Rise Quickly Rebuffing US Request, Wonacott and Phillips, Sep. 3, 2003.
[0305] 3. Snowed in Beijing, Editorial, Sep. 3, 2003.
[0306] 4. Don't Blame the Yuan, Glenn Hubbard, Sep. 9, 2003.
[0307] 5. Snow's Currency Job, Sep. 23, 2003.
[0308] 6. Currency Kabuki, Oct. 15, 2003.
[0309] 7. Bush's Bad Currency, Editorial, Oct. 17, 2003.
[0311] BW Links:
[0312] 1. Drowning in Dollars, BW, Balfour, Webb, Coy and Engardio, Aug. 25, 2003.
[0313] NYT Links:
[0314] Doubts Expressed as Bush Presses Asia On Currency, Andrews, Sep. 25, 2003.
[0315] Economist Links:
[0316] Tilting at Dragons, Oct. 25, 2003.
[0317] 4. Unemployment:
[0318] Shown Previously:
[0319] 5. Inventories/Capacity:
[0320] WSJ and NYT Links:
[0321] 1. Long a Drag on the Economy, Capacity Begins to Ebb, Greg Ip, WSJ, Sep. 8, 2003.*
[0322] 2. Overcapacity Stalls New Jobs, Uchitelle, Oct. 19, 2003.*
[0323] 3. Inventories Fall to A Low Point in Sales Terms, NYT, Oct. 9, 2003.
[0324] 6. Corporate Profits:
[0325] NYT Clips:
[0326] 1. G.E. Earnings Decline 11%, Key Product Lines Are Sluggish, Deutsch, Oct. 11, 2003.
[0327] 2. Intel Says Net Doubles, With Sales Up Overseas, Flynn, Oct. 15, 2003.
[0328] 3. Market Place; IBM Earnings Don't Impress Wall Street, Lohr, Oct. 16, 2003.
[0329] 4. G.M. Profit Beats Estimates, With Aid of Finance Unit, Hakim, Oct. 16, 2003.
[0330] 5. Du Pont Posts Loss, Cautious on Outlook, Reuters, Oct. 22, 2003.
[0331] 6. American Airlines Earns Slight Profit, Associated Press, Oct. 22, 2003.
[0332] 7. Daimler Has Slim Profit at Chrysler in Quarter, Landler, Oct. 22, 2003.
[0333] 8. Improvement In Bottom Lines Pumping Up Investor's Hopes, Fuerbringer, Oct. 21, 2003.
[0334] 7. Stock Markets:
[0335] Clips Similar to Profits for Calculation Index.
[0336] 8. Systemic Risks—Risks To The Financial System on the Radar:
[0337] All Clips:
[0338] 1. U.S. Is Said To Be Open To Ending Credit Lines Of Loan Giants, Labaton, NYT, Oct. 23, 2003.
[0339] 2. Woes at Financier of Mortgages Spurs Concerns, Barta Sapsford, WSJ, Sep., 26, 2003.
[0340] 3. Flubbing It, WSJ, Editorial, Oct. 7, 2003.
[0341] Insight Links for Economic Portion of Index:
[0342] Firms Had a Hand In Pension Plight They Now Bemoan, WSJ, Jul. 10, 2003.
[0343] A China Trade Primer, WSJ Editorial, Aug. 17, 2003.*
[0344] China's Economy Is A Paper Tiger, Hugo Restall, Op-Ed, WSJ, Aug. 5, 2003.
[0345] Don't Look Down, NYT, Paul Krugman, Oct. 14, 2003.*
[0346] The Productivity Boom Is Just Warming Up, Business Week, Gary Becker, Oct. 20, 2003.*
[0347] Flying On One Engine, Economist, Sep. 18, 2003.
[0348] 7. The Technology Deflator, Robert Shiller, WSJ, Jun. 12, 2003.
[0349] 8. How To Deflate Overblown Fears of Deflation, Glenn Hubbard, Op-Ed, WSJ, Jun. 9, 2003.
[0350] Calculation of Index Points for Economy Portion of Index:
[0351] 1. Deflation:
Based on factual information of CPI Index 0 60
[0352] 2. Budget Deficits:
McKinnon and Ip −1 40 NYT Editorial −1 40 Andrews 0 60 BW Editorial −1 40 Total of 180 points for an average of 45
[0353] 3. U.S. Dollar and Exchange Rates:
[0354] Chen Zhao
[0355] Wonnacott and Phillips
[0356] WSJ Snow Editorial 1
[0357] WSJ Snow Editorial 2
[0358] Hubbard 1—Don't Blame the Yuan
[0359] Hubbard 2—Currency Kabuki
[0360] WSJ Bad Currency Editorial
[0361] BW Balfour, Webb and Coy
[0362] NYT Andrews
[0363] Economist Tilting At Dragons
[0364] Favorable or Unfavorable based on proposition—Considering the global economic growth picture is the best option for USA at present to make constructive changes but no abrupt devaluing of currencies that might lead to difficulties. Consistently all clips above point out the dangers of abruptly devaluing the Chinese Yuan which could cause deflation and wreck one of the few engines of growth in the global economy while at the same time to push for other constructive changes in trade and in stabilizing Chinese banks. The calculation of this index component gives a +2 for all the above clips and a corresponding score of 80. This issue's other ramifications are also taken up in the external or international portion of the Index.
[0365] 4. Unemployment. Shown previously. Calculated point index of 60.
[0366] 5. Business Inventories/Production Capacity:
Greg Ip 0 60 Uchitelle 0 60 NYT Inventories Fall 0 60
[0367] Average of 60.
[0368] 6. Corporate Profits:
Deutsch, G. E. −1 40 Flynn, Intel +1 80 Lohr, IBM 0 60 Hakim, GM 0 60 Reuters, Du Pont −1 40 AP, American Airlines 0 60 Daimler Chrysler −1 40 Fuerbringer +1 80
[0369] Total of 460 points for an average of 57 points.
[0370] 7. Stock Markets:
[0371] Use calculated points for Corporate Profits of 57.
[0372] 8. Systemic Risks—Risks to Financial System on Radar:
Labaton, NYT +1 80 Barta, Sapsford, FHLB's, WSJ −1 40 Flubbing It, Editorial WSJ −1 40
[0373] Total of 160 points for an average of 53 points.
[0374] Based on the above calculation the points index for the economic portion is calculated. A total of 472 points for all of the components for an average of 59 points.
[0375] Summary of Points for Economic Part of Index:
Deflation 60 Deficits 45 US Dollar/Exchange Rates 80 Unemployment 60 Business Inventories/ 60 Production Capacity Corporate Profits 57 Stock Markets 57 Systemic Risks 53
[0376] A Total of 472 Points for all Components of the economic part of Index for an average of 59 points.
[0377] Economic Average: 59 Points.
[0378] The points Index for the confidence in business component of the behavioral part of the Index is now described. The following are the clips for confidence in business for September/October 2003. This covers corporate governance and corporate behaviors and is the first of five components in the behavioral part of the Index. This period saw a series of revelations much like the Enron affair and daily reporting covering the new events of that day. It covers the Grasso pay package affair, the Spitzer Mutual Fund Probe, the SEC Inquiry into Trading by Specialist firms of the New York Stock Exchange ("NYSE
[0379] On the Grasso Affair:
[0380] WSJ Links:
[0381] 1. SEC Head Demands Details on Pay Deal for NYSE's Grasso, Solomon and Kelly, Sep. 3, 2003.
[0382] 2. Grasso Forgoes Extra $48 million Raising New Questions for NYSE, Kelly and Craig, Sep. 10, 2003.
[0383] 3. Grasso May Have Influenced Details of NYSE Pay Package, Craig, Francis and Dugan, Sep. 11, 2003.*
[0384] 4. More Disclosures, Uncertainty at the NYSE, Kelly and Craig, Sep. 12, 2003.
[0385] 5. SEC Is To Seek More NYSE Details, Cohen and Solomon, Sep. 15, 2003.
[0386] 6. Grasso Quits NYSE Amid Pay Furor, Kelly, Craig and Dugan, Sep. 18, 2003.*
[0387] 7. Grasso a Can-Be Cop, Decides to Surrender, Kelly and Craig, Sep. 18, 2003.
[0388] 8. Weakened NYSE Must Face Challenges, Craig and Kelly, Sep. 18, 2003.
[0389] 9. Heat Shifts to Board of Leaderless NYSE, Craig and Kelly, Sep. 19, 2003.*
[0390] 10. NYSE Will Delay Its Game Plan For Change, Craig, Pacelle and Kelly, Sep. 23, 2003.
[0391] 11. As End Neared Grasso Held On In Hopes Pay Furor Can Ebb, Sep. 26, 2003.*
[0392] 12. NYSE's Reed Scraps Report, Plans New One, Sep. 26, 2003.*
[0393] 13. Reed To Alter the Way NYSE Governs Itself, Kelly and Craig, Sep. 29, 2003.
[0394] NYT Links Grasso Affair:
[0395] 14. Consultant to Grasso on Pay Is Also Adviser To Exchange, Landon Thomas, Jr., Sep. 24, 2003.
[0396] 15. McCall To Quit Stock Exchange After Pay Furor, Landon Thomas Jr., Sep. 26, 2003.*
[0397] 16. Big Board Ponders Pay Disclosures, Landon Thomas Jr., Oct. 10, 2003.
[0398] Business Week Link Grasso Affair:
[0399] 17. The 140 Million Dollar Man, Gary Weiss, Business Week Cover, Sep. 15, 2003.*
[0400] On the Spitzer Mutual Fund Probe and SEC Inquiry into NYSE Trading Firms and Other inquiries:
[0401] WSJ Links:
[0402] 1. Spitzer Kicks off Fund Probe with a $40 million Settlement, Smith and Lauricella, Sep. 4, 2003.
[0403] 2. With Mutual Funds, Is the Investor No. 1?, Karen Damato, Sep. 5, 2003.*
[0404] 3. Scrutiny of Mutual Funds Grows as SEC Probes Deal with Brokers, Lauricella and Solomon, Oct. 23, 2003.
[0405] 4. Revenge of the Investor Class, Editorial, Oct. 23, 2003.*
[0406] 5. NYSE to Punish Five Specialists in Trading Inquiry, Cohen, Craig, and Kelly,Oct. 16, 2003.
[0407] 6. NYSE Trading Probe Took Late Sharp Turn(SEC Nudge Provided Impetus Prompting Questions Concerning Efficacy of Self-Regulatory System), Oct. 17, 2003.*
[0408] 7. AIG Is Charged By SEC with Fraud, Smith and Francis, Sep. 12, 2003.
[0409] 8. Bank of America Sought Assets, Got Troubles, Mollenkamp, Sep. 12, 2003.
[0410] NYT Links:
[0411] 9. SEC Steps In as Fines Are Planned on 5 Firms, Landon Thomas Jr., Oct. 17, 2003.
[0412] Insight Links:
[0413] WSJ Links:
[0414] 1. Enron's Getaway Drivers, editorial on the $300 million penalty on Enron bankers.
[0415] 2. JP Morgan Chase and Citigroup, Jul. 29 2003.*
[0416] 3. The Big Board's Barrel (The NYSE's Chairman Got $140 Million. For What?!), Susan Lee, Sep. 10, 2003.*
[0417] 4. Wide SEC Review May Revamp Structure of U.S. Stock Markets, Solomon and Kelly, Sep. 19, 2003.
[0418] 5. Where Was the NYSE Board?, Lublin, Sep. 11, 2003.*
[0419] 6. The Market's Most Valuable Stock is Trust, Shiller, Sep. 25, 2003.*
[0420] BW Links:
[0421] 7. Lessons from the Grasso Affair, Sep. 29, 2003.*
[0422] 8. Restoring Trust in Mutual Funds, Sep. 22, 2003.*
[0423] NYT Links: 9. Can Exchanges Regulate Themselves as Rivalry Grows?, Norris, Oct. 17, 2003.*
[0424] Calculation for the Behavioral Aspect Portion of the Index:
1. Confidence in Business −2 20 2. Confidence in Financial Markets −2 20 1. Mutual Fund Inquiry 2. Chase Citigroup $300 million Enron Penalty 3. SEC's NYSE Trading Inquiry 3. Confidence in the Economy 0 60 for Employment-Job Security Using Employment component of Economy portion of Index 4. Fairness and Equity 1. Management Compensation −2 20 Using Confidence in Business component Grasso affair 2. Health Insurance −1 40
[0425] Links:
[0426] 1. Census Sees Surge in Americans Without Insurance, Schaefer and McGinley,WSJ, Sep. 30, 2003.
[0427] 2. Walmart Cost-Cutting Finds a Big Target in Health Benefits, Wysocki and Zimmerman, WSJ, Sep. 30, 2003.
5. Incomes/Depression of wages 0 60
[0428] Use unemployment component links Uchitelle etc. on wage influence.
[0429] Other Links:
[0430] 1. Is Wal-Mart Too Powerful, Bianco and Zellner, BW, Oct. 6, 2003.
[0431] 2. The High Cost of Low Prices, BW Editorial on Wal-mart, Oct. 6, 2003.
[0432] 3. Inside Southwest Airlines, Storied Culture Feels Strains, Trottman, WSJ, Jul. 11, 2003 (Insight Link).
5. Unemployment Blue collar 0 60 White Collar Link below 0 60
[0433] Link:
[0434] Skilled Workers Mount Opposition to Free Trade, Swaying Politicians, Schroeder and Aeppel, WSJ, Oct. 10, 2003.
[0435] Total of 180 points for Fairness and Equity with an average of 45.
6. Uncertainty a. Interest Rates (hibernate) — — b. Deficits (Input from Economy) 45 c. Unemployment 0 60 (Input from Economy) d. Economy in General 61 (Input from overall Economy)
[0436] Total of 166 points points for an average of 55.
7. International Political and Economy a. Wars - Daily human toll of Iraq bomb attacks. 0 60 b. Reconstruction $87 billion funding for Iraq-Congressional approval; +1 87 Passage of USA favored UN Resolution; Madrid Conference for Donors to Iraq Reconstruction, A Success.
[0437] All Clips for a. and b. Above
[0438] 1. The Billions Needed for Iraq Could exact a Toll on Fragile Economy, BW, Sep. 22, 2003.
[0439] 2. The Struggle for Iraq: The Reconstruction; Unanimous Vote By UN's Council Adopts Iraq Plan, Felicity Barringer, NYT, Oct. 17, 2003.
[0440] 3. Lawmakers Back Request By Bush on Funds for Iraq, Firestone, NYT Oct. 18, 2003 (House vote 303 to 125, Senate 87 to 12, Senate requires Iraq to repay $10 billion).
[0441] 4. About $13.4 billion is pledged for the Reconstruction of Iraq, Phillips, Oct. 27, 2003.
[0442] 5. Indebted to Saddam, WSJ Editorial, Oct. 27, 2003.
[0443] 6. The Rebirth of a Nation, Ana Palacio, WSJ, Oct. 27, 2003.
[0444] 7. Bombings Plunge Iraqi Capital into Chaos at Start of Ramadan, Filkins and Berenson, NYT, Oct. 27, 2003.
Nussbaum 0 60 Barringer +2 100 Firestone +2 100 Philips +2 100 WSJ Editorial 0 60 Palacio +2 100
[0445] Total of 520 points for an average of 87.
Berenson 0 60 c. Alliances +1 80
[0446] Shift in German Position Supporting US for Reconstruction of Iraq.
[0447] UK's Blair and Spain's Aznar both Retain Popularity after Iraq Stance.
[0448] All Clips:
[0449] 1. In a Shift Schroeder Says Germany Is Ready To Help Rebuild Iraq, Kempe and Champion,WSJ, Sep. 18, 2003, (An hour long interview with WSJ's Kempe and Champion in Schroeder's Berlin office).
[0450] 2. Bush and Schroeder Look To Move Past Differences on Iraq, Bumiller, NYT, Sep. 24, 2003.
[0451] 3. Blair's Popularity Survives Criticism Over Iraq Stance, Champion, WSJ, Sep. 26, 2003.
[0452] 4. NATO To Consider Expansion Of Afghan Force, Shishkin, WSJ, Sep. 19, 2003.
[0453] 5. As Long As It Takes, Colin Powell, WSJ, Sep. 19, 2003.
[0454] 6. Premier's Party Regains Power In Madrid Vote, Ousting Leftists, Fuchs, NYT Oct. 27, 2003.
Kempe, Champion +1 80 Bumiller +1 80 Champion +1 80 Shishkin +1 80 Powell +1 80 Fuchs +1 80 d. Free Trade +1 80
[0455] Inputting US Dollar-Yuan exchange rate points index component. Free Trade aspects of issues in China-US trade reflected by Senate proposal of high tariffs on Chinese imports.
e. Terrorism 0 60
[0456] Absence of any significant incident to disrupt economy.
[0457] Total points for uncertainty for international political and economic factors is 360 points for an average of 72 points.
[0458] Summary of Behavioral Aspect of Index
Confidence in Business −2 20 Confidence in Financial Markets −2 20 Confidence in Economy for 60 Employment Fairness and Equity 45 Uncertainty 55 International Politics and Economics 73
[0459] Average for the behavioral portion of the Index is a total of 273 points with an average of 45 points.
[0460] Behavioral Average: 45 Points.
[0461] Calculation of External or International Part of the Index:
[0462] 1. Asia—Japan
[0463] 1.1 Bank Debt:
[0464] Japan's Takenaka is reappointed Banking and Economic Policy Minister and reaffirms intention to continue to pursue banking reforms. Prime Minister Koizumi pushes for Banking Reform after strong victory in LDP election.
[0465] All Clips:
[0466] 1. Takenaka Sets Strict Goals To Improve Japan's Banks, Fackler, WSJ, Sep. 26, 2003 (Takenaka's first interview with foreign press since his reappointment as Banking and Economic Policy Minister.)
[0467] 2. Unlikely Team Sets Japanese Banking On Road to Reform, Fackler, WSJ, Aug. 6, 2003.
[0468] 3. Japan Still in Dreamland about the Bank Crisis, Brian Bremner, BW, Jun. 2, 2003.
[0469] 4. Persistence Pays: Japan's Bank Regulator Makes Gains, Ken Belson, NYT, Sep. 30, 2003.
Fackler 1 +2 100 Fackler 2 +2 100 Bremner −1 40 Belson +1 80
[0470] Total of 320 points for an average of 80 points.
[0471] 1.2 Deflation:
[0472] Bank of Japan chief conveys firm intent to pursue easy money policy to fight deflation.
[0473] All Clips:
[0474] 1. In Tokyo, More Steps Toward Fixing the Economy, Belson, NYT, Oct. 11, 2003.
[0475] 2. Bank of Japan Chief Vows To Continue Easy Policy, Belson, NYT, Sep. 4, 2003.
Belson 1 +1 80 Belson 2 +1 80
[0476] 1.3 Deficits (hibernate)
[0478] All Clips:
[0479] 1. Japan's Economy Grows at 3.9% Pace, Belson, NYT, Sep. 11, 2003.
[0480] 2. Bank of Japan Chief Vows To Continue Easy Policy, Belson, NYT, Sep. 4, 2003.
[0481] 3. Currency Quid Pro Quo, Bremner, BW, Oct. 20, 2003.
Belson 1 +2 100 Belson 2 +1 80 Bremner +1 80
[0482] Total of 260 points for an average of 87 points for yen-dollar exchange Rate.
[0483] 1.5 Government and Politics:
[0484] Events:
[0485] 1. Premier Koizumi wins LDP election with 60% of vote.
[0486] 2. Koizumi forms Cabinet that strongly supports Reform efforts.
[0487] 3. Reappoints Takenaka as Banking and Economic Policy Minister.
[0488] All Clips:
[0489] 1. With a Big Victory, Japanese Premier Gains Momentum, Onishi, Sep. 21, 2003.
[0490] 2. A Reform Cabinet in Japan, Bremner, BW, Oct. 6, 2003.
[0491] 3. New Cabinet in Japan Emphasizes Fiscal Reform, Onishi and Belson, NYT Sep. 23, 2003.
[0492] Insight Link:
[0493] 1. Why Koizumi Is Still Riding High, Bremner, BW, Jun. 16, 2003.
Onishi 1 +2 100 Onishi 2 +2 100 Bremner +2 100
[0494] 1.6 Reforms—Corporate Sector:
[0495] About a four-fold improvement in Return on Equity to 7% since 1998. Corporate Governance Reforms Make Progress.
[0496] Clips:
[0497] 1. Wal-Mart's Foray Into Japan Spurs A Retail Upheaval, Zimmerman and Fackler, Sep. 19, 2003.
[0498] 2. Corporate Japan's Stealth Makeover, Bremner, BW, Sep. 29, 2003.
[0499] 3. Japan: Learning the Hard Way, Bremner, BW, May 19, 2003.
Zimmerman and Fackler +2 100 Bremner 1 +2 100 Bremner 2 +1 80
[0500] Average for Reforms-Corporate Sector of 93 points.
[0501] Points Summary for Japan
Bank Debt 80 Deflation 80 Yen-Dollar Rate 87 Government and Politics 100 Reforms-Corporate Sector 93
[0502] Average for Japan is 88 Points.
[0503] Calculation of External or International Part of Index
[0504] 2. Asia—China:
[0505] 2.1 Bank Debt:
[0506] All clips:
[0507] 1. China's Banks Face Growing Threat From Major Fraud, Leggett, WSJ, Aug. 4, 2003.
[0508] 2. Speed and Courage: Banks in China Must Get Lending Right, Wessel, WSJ, Oct. 16, 2003.
[0509] 3. China's Bank Regulator Promises Sector Cleanup, Kathy Chen, WSJ, Oct. 16, 2003 ( First interview with a foreign newspaper since taking office in March).
[0510] 4. Surge in Lending in China Stokes Economic Worries, Chen and Leggett, WSJ, Oct. 3, 2003.
Leggett −2 20 Wessel −2 20 Chen −1 40 Chen and Leggett −2 20
[0511] Average of 25 for China Bank Debt.
[0512] 2.2 Yuan-Dollar Exchange Rate:
[0513] All clips:
[0514] 1. As Fight Heats Up Over China Trade, Business Is Split, Wonacott and Chang, WSJ, Sep. 4, 2003.
[0515] 2. Tilting At Dragons, Finance and Economics, Economist, Oct. 25, 2003.
[0516] 3. Is It China's Fault? Miller Engardio, Roberts, BW, Oct. 13, 2003.
[0517] 4. Don't Blame Job Woes on China, Editorial BW, Oct. 13, 2003.
[0518] 5. Another Big Reason China Won't Devalue, Balfour, BW, Oct. 6, 2003.
Wonacott and Chang 0 60 Economist +1 80 Engardio, Roberts +2 100 BW Editorial +2 100 Balfour +2 100
[0519] Average for China Yuan Dollar Exchange rate of 88 points
[0520] An international aspect is determined-good for the USA or good for country X (Japan, China or some other Country). When there are apparently conflicting goals, as in the Dollar-Yen or Dollar-Yuan exchange rates, is "favorable" seen as favorable to the USA or favorable to Japan or China in the external or international part of the Index? When viewed against the backdrop of USA job losses this becomes a politicized issue.
[0521] The response is that though countries have apparently conflicting goals there is a solution that is mutually beneficial to all. There is no solution in a globalized economy benefiting and largely built on free trade for win-lose solutions as win-lose solutions quickly become lose-lose solutions as countries do a tit for tat policy action. This is the crucial point. Engines for growth in any part of the global economy are beneficial to keeping the global economy from stalling in the current situation so efforts are made not to destabilize and upset this. This is true in the USA-China debate that the Yuan is undervalued and in the Dollar-Yen exchange rate. The present invention system and programmed calculations, however, advantageously account for this issue unlike conventional and overly simplistic methods.
[0522] 2.3 Government and Political Factors:
[0523] Events:
[0524] China's decision to backdown after street protests against a new internal security measure.
[0525] Clips:
[0526] 1. Chinese Reversal In Hong Kong Reveals Dilemma on Democracy, Pottinger and Hutzler, Sep. 8, 2003.
[0527] 2. A Shining Example for Asia, WSJ, Editorial, Jul. 15, 2003.
[0528] 3. Why the Tung Administration Lacks Legitimacy, Yeung Wai-Hong, Op-Ed, WSJ, Jul. 15, 2003.
Pottinger +1 80 WSJ Editorial +2 100 Wai-Hong +1 80
[0529] Average of 87 points for China Government and Political factors.
[0530] 2.4 China Economy:
[0531] Clips:
[0532] 1. Is This Boom In Danger, Roberts and Balfour, BW, Nov. 3, 2003.
[0533] 2. Surge in Lending In China Stokes Economic Worries, Chen and Leggett, WSJ, Oct. 3, 2003.
[0534] 3. Living on Borrowed Growth, Weijian Shan, WSJ OpEd, Oct. 7, 2003.
Balfour −2 20 Chen and Leggett −2 20 Shan −2 20
[0535] Average of 20 for China Economic Growth.
[0536] Summary of Points Index Component for China:
Bank Debt 25 Dollar-Yuan Exchange Rate 88 Government and Political factors 87 Economy 20
[0537] Average for China in External portion of Index of 55 points.
[0538] 3. Western Europe—Germany, France, U.K.:
[0539] 3.1 Reforms—Taxes, Labor, Pension, Health Care etc.:
[0540] All clips:
[0541] 1. A Long Hard Climb, German and French Economic reforms, World Europe, Economist, Oct. 16, 2003.
[0542] 2. From Third Way to Thatcherism, Global Agenda, Economist, Oct. 17, 2003.
[0543] 3. In Deep Crisis, Germany Starts To Revamp Vast Welfare State, Rhoads, Jul. 10, 2003.
[0544] 4. France's Economic Reforms: Fizzling Out?, Matlack, BW Oct. 13, 2003.
[0545] 5. Give This Employment Policy The Guillotine, Rossant, BW, Oct. 27, 2003 (The 35 hour week).
Economist 1 +1 80 Economist 2 +1 80 Rhoads, WSJ +1 80 Matlack, BW 0 60 Rossant, BW −1 40
[0546] Average of 68 for Germany/France reforms.
[0547] 3.2 Economic Growth, Deflation, Interest Rates, Deficits:
[0548] All clips:
[0549] 1. German Think Tanks Offer Glum Budget Picture, WSJ, Oct. 22, 2003.
[0550] 2. Sunny Skies for Europe? Grab That Umbrella, Landler, NYT, Oct. 5, 2003.
[0551] 3. As U.S. Shows Signs of Strength, Global Economies Look Up, Too, Hilsenrath, Rhoads, Buckman, WSJ, Aug. 12, 2003.
[0552] 4. German Survey Adds To Hopes for EU Rebound, Rhoads, WSJ, Jul. 29, 2003.
[0553] 5. A Big Bet on Land In the East Haunts Germany's Banks, Walker, WSJ, Aug. 5, 2003.
[0554] 6. Spain's Housing Prices Prompt Fears of a Bust, House and Vitzthum, WSJ, Aug. 5, 2003.
Think Tanks, WSJ −1 40 Landler, NYT −1 40 Hilsenrath +1 80 Walker, WSJ −1 40 House and −1 40 Vitzthum
[0555] Average of 48 for Economic Growth for Germany, Spain
[0556] 3.3 Euro-Dollar Exchange Rates (hibernate)
[0557] 3.4 Government and Political Factors:
[0558] Clips:
[0559] 1. Blair's popularity survives criticism over Iraq stance, Champion, WSJ, Sep. 26, 2003.
[0560] 2. France's Economic Reforms: Fizzling Out?, Matlack, BW, Oct. 13, 2003.
Champion 0 60 Matlack 0 60
[0561] Average for Government and Political factors of 60 points.
[0562] 3.5 Reforms—Corporate Sector:
[0563] All clips:
[0564] 1. For Siemens, Move Into USA Causes Waves Back Home, Karnitschnig, WSJ, Sep. 8, 2003.
[0565] 2. Peugeot's Formula for Success: Steering Clear of Megamergers, Boudette, WSJ, Aug. 4, 2003.
Karnitschnig, WSJ +1 80 Boudette, WSJ +1 80
[0566] Average for Europe Reforms—Corporate Sector of 80.
[0567] Insight Links:
[0568] 1. Scrap the Pact, WSJ Review and Outlook, Jul. 16, 2003.
[0569] 2. Old Europe's Choice, Gordon Brown, WSJ OpEd, Oct. 16, 2003.
[0570] 3. Britain's Trumpet, WSJ Editorial, Oct. 16, 2003.
[0571] 4. The ECB's New Boss, Fairlamb and Rossant, BW, Sep. 22, 2003.
[0572] Summary for Europe:
Reforms 68 Economic Growth 48 Government and Political factors 60 Reforms Corporate Sector 80
[0573] Average for Europe component of External part of Index of 64 points.
[0574] 4. Calculation for Middle East:
[0575] 4.1 Iraq Reconstruction:
[0576] Use calculation from 5.2 of behavioral aspect of Index titled reconstruction which was 87 points.
[0577] 4.2 Oil Prices and Supplies:
[0578] All clips:
[0579] 1. Hidden Pipeline. Inside OPEC's Backroom Deal To Keep Oil Supplies Flowing. Consumer Nation's Watchdog In Return Makes Tapping Its Stockpile A last Resort. Bhushan Bahree, WSJ, Jul. 29, 2003.
[0580] 2. Saudis Woo Russia With Oil Accord. Moscow Agrees To Curb Output Surge If Prices Fall. Jeanne Whalen, WSJ, Sep. 3, 2003.
Bahree +1 80 Whalen +1 80
[0581] 4.3 Government and Political Factors:
[0582] Events:
[0583] Iran nuclear oversight settlement of European foreign ministers Iraq governing council plan.
[0584] Points assigned of 80 points.
[0585] Total Middle East of 247 points (87+80+80) for an average of 82 points.
[0586] 5.0 Free Trade Issues (hibernate)
[0587] Calculation of External or International Part of Index
[0588] External Index Summary:
Japan 88 China 55 Germany 64 Middle East 82
[0589] Total of 289 points for an average of 72 points for external part of Index.
[0590] External Average: 72 Points
[0591] Summary of Index for the USA Combining 3 Parts:
Economy Part 59 Points Behavioral Aspect Part 45 Points External or International Part 72 Points
[0592] Weighting System for the 3 Parts:
Economy Part 50% or ½ Behavioral Aspect Part 25% or ¼ External Part 25% or ¼ USA INDEX 58.7 POINTS
[0593] Resilience test of Index for new events:
[0594] The points sub-Index is tested for impact of any new events or most recent events.
[0595] 1. Event—The Commerce Department announced a 7.2% annualized growth rate for the third quarter of 2004.
[0596] New Clips:
[0597] 1. Economy Turned In Its Best Growth Rate In Nearly Two Decades, Schlesinger and Hilsenrath, WSJ, Oct. 31, 2003.
[0598] 2. Prestigious Party Poopers Persist, Browning and Lucchetti, WSJ, Nov. 2, 2003.
[0599] 3. Say Goodbye To Refi Madness, Palmieri, Coy, Miller, BW, Nov. 10, 2003.
[0600] 4. The Fed: Another Failure To Communicate, Cooper and Madigan, BW Nov. 10, 2003.
[0601] 5. Mobile Home Loans Hang Over Fannie Mae, Barta and Zuckerman, BW, Nov. 2, 2003.
[0602] Palmieri, Coy, Miller Clip for 1.4 Unemployment/Incomes and Purchasing Power/Housing Markets points to Refi Boom as a big factor in the growth spurt in 2003 and this will not continue. Tax Cuts will also not be a big factor in 2004 as they were in 2003 for consumer purchasing power. The score for 1.4 is not likely to change from 60 points. Other components 1.1 Deflation at 60 points, 1.2 Budget Deficits at 45 points,1.3 Dollar and Exchange Rates and 1.5 Business Inventories and Production Capacity of 60 points are not likely to change. 1.8 Systemic Risks continues at 53 points as evidenced by Clip 5 Barta and Zuckerman. Clip 2 Browning and Lucchetti shows that the evidence of expert opininon is mixed about whether the strong results for third quarter 2003 will continue into 2004. The net impact is that the Economy Index of 59 Points can not be changed by the event.
[0603] 2. The External Index component for Japan and China is tested for resilience with the most recent information. This includes papers by experts presented at conferences.
[0604] New Paper:
[0605] 1. Weakening Market and Regulatory Discipline in Japanese Financial System, Mitsuhiro Fukao, Keio University, paper submitted at Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Conference on Market Discipline: The Evidence Across Countries and Industries, Oct. 31, 2003.
[0606] 2. Interview with Mitsuhiro Fukao, Shailen Banker, Intelilinks, Conference on Market Discipline, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Oct. 31, 2003.
[0607] The paper and the interview points out the hurdles facing the Japanese regulatory efforts to cleanup the bad loans in the banking sector as long as deflationary trends make bank profits nonexistent. Because of Japanese banks large stock portfolio Japanese bank asset position is extremely sensitive to rise or fall of the Nikkei index. All this suggest progress may be slower than expected and require greater discipline. If Japan bank debt is lowered from 80 favourable to 40 unfavorable what can be the impact? The impact is to lower the external or international points sub-Index to 70 points from 72 points. The impact of this on the USA Index which combines the 3 parts economy, behavioral and external is to lower it by ½ point from 58.7 points to 58.2 points. Considering the renewed resolve and new mandate for Koizumi to pursue bank and other reforms the Japan bank debt in the light of Fukao's paper can be lowered to 60 (neutral) in which case the impact on the USA Index can be small. The external sub-Index can be 71 points and the USA sub-index can be 58.5 points.
[0608] 2. China—Economy:
[0609] All Clips:
[0610] 1. Inflation Returns To China, Though Modest, A Sustained Rise in Prices Is the First In Years, Leggett and Areddy, WSJ, Oct. 29, 2003.
[0611] 2. Mitsuhiro Fukao Interview referred to above.
[0612] In the case of China a low score for the economy of 20 was because of misallocations of capital, poor quality of bank lending, and risks in an overheating economy. Fukao in the interview indicates that though China has a bad loan problem with its banks similar to Japan's, the expansion in China is so large that the momentum can sustain continued growth for some time. Leggett and Areddy point to the effects of the expansion in curbing deflation. If this is given a score of 60 given the effects on employment, demand and inflation of economic expansion this can raise the China component to 65 points from 55 points. The external index points can be 75 Points up from 72 points and the USA Index can be 59.5 points up from 58.7 points.
[0613] 2. The behavioral sub-Index part of the USA sub-Index remains unchanged as business confidence continues to see the impact of new revelations in mutual funds (for example, Putnam Funds) and inquiry into trading specialists at NYSE. No new events for business uncertainty.
[0614] Initial Index, User Index and Expert Index Structure for Each Country:
[0615] The Index just discussed is the Initial sub-Index for the USA which provides a framework of topics, structure, events, clips, content links, insight links, and accompanying commentary. It also provides a methodology for calculating the Initial sub-Index, weighting and averaging, hibernation principle for topics not prominent for the particular period, and rolling topics principle for the Index to include new topics that are prominent in the particular period or periods. The term Initial is used for this sub-Index as this sub-Index gets developed further with the addition of the information collected from the User which is the basis for the User sub-Index, and it also gets developed a second time with the addition of information collected from experts which is the basis for the Expert sub-index.
[0616] The User sub-Index is based on the information that is collected from Users using the framework of the Initial sub-Index. The Expert sub-Index is based on information collected from Experts using the framework of the Initial sub-Index. Users and Experts are selected by the originator and are selected with responsibility for objectivity. In addition to information collected on the basis of the Index framework, other information is collected as feedback from Users and Experts and this is fed in an information loop back to the Initial sub-Index for improvement.
[0617] The User sub-Index is now further disclosed. The User is asked to provide his input on the clips or events or statement about the event as appropriate. He can use the similar framework of topics as the Initial sub-index and indicate for the clips or events or statement about the event whether it was −2 strongly unfavorable, −1 unfavorable, 0 neutral, +1 favorable, or +2 strongly favorable. Using the example of the unemployment component of the economic portion of the Index this can be as follows. For reference we bring up the clip sample from September/October 2003 that was used earlier in the Initial sub-Index for the unemployment component of the economic portion of the Index.
[0618] Clip Sample from September/October 2003:
[0619] WSJ links:
[0620] 1. A Jobless Recovery?, Allan Meltzer Sep. 26, 2003.
[0621] 2. There's No Such Thing as a Jobless Recovery, Martin Feldstein, Oct. 13, 2003.
[0622] 3. Clues to the Cure for Unemployment Begin to Emerge, David Wessel, Oct. 13, 2003.
[0623] 4. Long a Drag on the Economy, Capacity Glut Begins to Ebb, Greg Ip, Sep. 8, 2003.
[0624] Economist:
[0625] 5. Flying on One Engine, Zanny Beddoes, The Economist, Sep. 20 2003.
[0626] 6. The Misery of Manufacturing, The Economist, Sep. 27, 2003.
[0627] NYT Links:
[0628] 7. Slowing Stream of New Jobs Helps to Explain Slump, David Leonhardt, Oct. 1, 2003.
[0629] 8. Rhetoric vies with Reality on a Hot Topic: Jobs, David Leonhardt, Oct. 12, 2003.
[0630] 9. Overcapacity Stall New Jobs, Louis Uchitelle, Oct. 19, 2003.
[0631] Business Week Links:
[0632] 10. Jobs: The Turning Point Is Here, P40, Coy,Hof and Arndt, Oct. 27, 2003.
[0633] 11. A Jobs Recovery, Yes. A Hiring Boom, No, Cooper and Madigan, Oct. 20, 2003.
[0634] Insight Links:
[0635] WSJ Links:
[0636] 1. False Hopes for the Economy and False Fears, Edmund S. Phelps, Jun. 3, 2003.
[0637] 2. Why U.S. Manufacturing Won't Die, Clare Ansberry, Jul. 3, 2003.
[0638] 3. If Current Recovery Loses Steam, Economy May Face Real Trouble, Greg Ip, Aug. 19, 2003.
[0639] 4. Wall Street Journal Left Behind Series and Less Sweat More Tech series of articles and reports including the following:
[0640] a. A New Blue Collar World, Ansberry, Jun. 30, 2003.
[0641] b. Laid Off Factory Workers are Finding Many Jobs are Drying Up for Good, Ansberry, Jul. 21, 2003.
[0642] For the first clip in WSJ clips by Allan Meltzer the selected User can give his input From Strongly Unfavorable −2 to Strongly Favorable +2. For example the statement the User can respond to can be: "The Department of Labor's Establishment Survey showing a job loss of 2.7 million jobs since President G. W. Bush took office is misleading and incorrect. The Department of Labor's Household Survey showing a much smaller job loss of 220,000 jobs is closer to reality, and far more typical for a period with recession and slow recovery. As the speed of recovery picks up the latter loss will disappear by next year."
[0643] Under NYT links, the statement can be worded for example as follows: "David Leonhardt provides examples of Democratic exaggeration of huge job losses (3 million) and Republican exaggeration of fairly small job loss based on the Labor Department's Household Survey. But the reality he argues is that it is nowhere near this political rhetoric. Yet he says we have experienced the worst job loss in 20 years." The User can respond from Strongly Favourable +2 to Strongly Unfavorable −2.
[0644] The results can be a collection of points for the selected sample of Users. This can be averaged to get an average point score for that question.
[0645] Similiarly the separate links for Greg Ip and Louis Uchitelle on Capacity Glut Ebbing, and Overcapacity Stalling New Jobs can be worded for User response. Users can also have access to these clips and can be expected to have read them before responding.
[0646] The Expert sub-Index is now discussed. For Experts, a more sophisticated insight link such as Edmund Phelps (False Hopes for the Economy and False fears, WSJ, Jun. 3, 2003) can be used in addition to these clips and the article made accessible to Experts. Another link for Experts is Weijan Shan's Living on Borrowed Growth, WSJ, Oct. 7, 2003. Other aspects and calculation can be similar to the User sub-Index and Initial sub-Index.
[0647] The Overall Index is now discussed in greater detail. The Overall Index can be a combination of the Initial sub-index, the User sub-Index and the Expert sub-index by averaging for all three sub-Indexes, giving equal weight to each. A separate commentary can accompany the Overall Index.
[0648] Commentary for the index is included as follows. The value of this calculation of the Index is that it brings out several critical insights that otherwise get buried in the vast daily flow of information. First with the U.S., the score of 45 for the behavioral aspect portion of the Index reflects the state of corporate governance, transparency, ethics in business that translate into confidence of investors and create a dynamic environment for business. A continuous flow of revelations in the media since the Enron affair, occurs almost daily, the latest being the Grasso compensation affair and the lawsuits (for example, Quattrone, Tyco). This has created a real barrier to sustaining the recovery supposedly underway through the undermining of confidence in business leaders. Surprisingly what appeared to be the greater danger has come out better than expected. The Iraq reconstruction has moved forward after the unanimous passage of the U.S. sponsored UN resolution, the Congress mandate for $87 billion for Iraq, and the Madrid conference with donor pledges for Iraq.
[0649] The profit recovery itself is cost cutting that translates directly into the bottom line. So as with P&G its better performance by elimination of some jobs, cost cutting and vigorous competition with competitors such as Kimberly Clark and Colgate who have as consequence shown poorer results. Pricing power is still limited. Deflation continues to be a threat even though it received less mention this quarter with core inflation up only 1.3% (excluding food and energy costs for 12 months ending September 2003).
[0650] Better results for Intel were partly due to increased demand in Asia—if Chinese growth slows will this be a temporary factor. The strategic move to higher margin Centrino chips will continue to help, so results can be mixed. Overall low confidence in business, lack of pricing power, continued overcapacity( though mitigated somewhat) especially in industries such as auto, the political environment of deficits boosting, create a drag on sustained recovery. This is reflected in the overall U.S. points Index level of 58.7 points combining all three parts.
[0651] On the external aspect, the surprise is the score for China visavis Japan. The points Index for Japan, 88 points (or 80 points with resilience test), compared to the points Index for China of 55 points (or 65 points with resilience test). Because China's growth has been extraordinary for the last decade and Japan's mediocre it becomes intuitive to expect this to continue. But the point Index shows the real dangers as China accelerates rates of growth even further. Chinese banks have a large percentage of bad or non-performing loans. Its banking system is fragile and can suffer if a currency revaluation is not properly handled, pulling the U.S. into the picture in terms of continued forbearance with a undervalued Yuan. Weijian Shan, a partner at Newbridge Capital, (Living on Borrowed Growth, WSJ, Oct. 7, 2003) quotes Standard and Poor's estimate of $518 billion, or more than 40% of China's GDP to clean up China's banking system. It only goes to show the weak underpinnings of China's growth—overly dependent on foreign investment, tendency to industry overcapacity and deflation, and a fragile banking system. Japan's corporate sector is in the process of being revitalized, Bank's forced to cleanup bad loans by the government with a new mandate in recent elections, and Bank of Japan pouring liquidity into the financial system to check deflation. Japan appears to be moving in a positive direction compared to China.
[0652] With the detailed consideration of information in the Index and its structure such turning points and its early warning signs are detected early. With this Index the tendency to overoptimism or overpessimism skews one way or the other are also limited by referring to basic factual information. Much of the best reports and best media commentary are based on factual information, and these facts organized in a certain structure bring out a picture that is closer to what is really happening. The structure of the Index forces information to be considered systematically in its entirety as far as possible and with the detailed consideration of critical information it gives a more complete picture than a selective consideration of certain facts and omission of others inherent in competing approaches without this discipline of topic structure and detailed information and approach.
[0653] The Index according to the present invention has many unique features.
[0654] 1. The Index shown here provides a consistent organized framework with topic structure, selected information sources for quality and reliability, selected clips of reports and of opinion and events, detailed information, and Index calculation, so that Users and Experts have a place to work in. Before Users and Experts operate in disparate frameworks, bias and assumptions are not spelled out, and in scattered locations. No "apples to apples" organization for discussion and information collection is in place so that communication is chaotic as if in different languages. The Index shown here forces a level playing field on all players.
[0655] 2. Feedback loops operate to improve capture of information from Users and Experts, so that Index product gets better with more use of the information transmitted in the feedback loops, iterations and practice, and improves level playing field for all players.
[0656] 3. The international aspect is captured here in detail. The international aspect is blended into the Index calculation for the USA. In a global economy with trade flows back and forth between USA, Europe and Asia, and with globalized manufacturing, design and development of corporations, this integration is better reflected in the USA sub-Index by incorporating this through the external portion of the USA sub-Index, with components for China, Japan, Germany, France and UK. Oil prices and supplies is incorporated through the Middle East component of the external sub-index. Wars, reconstruction, alliances, and terrorism are incorporated in the behavioral aspect portion of the Index under uncertainty of international political and economic factors. In the economic portion of the Index, this international aspect is brought in under 1.3 heading of Dollar and current account deficit. This methodology of blending in of the international aspect into the domestic USA Index at different and appropriate locations is a unique feature of this Index.
[0657] 4. Specific Behavioral Aspects are captured in the Initial sub-index. Media sentiment in specific areas with clips covering:
[0658] 1. Confidence in business—corporate governance, corporate behaviors;
[0659] 2 Confidence in financial markets, in economy for employment;
[0660] 3. Fairness and equity in management compensation, health insurance for employees, incomes and unemployment;
[0661] 4. Uncertainty about domestic political and economic factors, about interest rates, about deficits, unemployment, and the economy in general;
[0662] 5. Uncertainty about international political and economic factors, wars, reconstruction, alliances, free trade, terrorism.
[0663] 5. The Index provides specific information from a clip, or report of an event, or a specifically worded statement about an event or article, before inviting a response from the User or Expert. The responses are not made vaguely about better or worse conditions in business or the economy as in existing Indexes (for example, IFO, Tankan, Conference Board, Institute of Supply Management).
[0664] 6. Another feature is the Rolling Topic where new topics that have assumed prominence can be brought into the Index, some topics that are not prominent for a particular period or periods can be retained but hibernated (ie not scored), and some topics can be omitted once they have declined in significance. Example: In the Index calculation here corporate debt and corporate investment were hibernated.
[0665] 7. Making results and the source detail such as the clips and other information, etc, accessible. Clips selected are accessible, Experts information accessible and User information accessible. Content links and insight links from clips accessible to Users. This provides extensive information and detail to understand the results and be able to make changes where appropriate and conduct simulations by the User that can provide a customized perspective to the User. This is not currently possible with any of the Indexes, and has the potential to become a very important feature of this product.
[0666] 8. A critical difference is the linked information system invention described earlier herein that supports the Index product. The linked information system and the Index are designed for electronic use and internet use unlike the other traditional Index products.
[0667] 9. There is no User sub-Index and Expert sub-Index in the manner set out here at this time with traditional methods. The invention Initial sub-Index for the USA as calculated here with use of clips and points assignment follows an entirely new concept, structure, methodology and implementation.
[0668] User and Expert response sheet, and User and Expert simulation sheet are now further discussed. The selected User or selected Expert uses a response sheet on the internet provided by the creator or originator of the Index to indicate his responses to the clips, event described in clip or worded description inviting response. The response sheet can make it possible for the User or Expert to indicate his response in a convenient manner in a short time, and concentrate his time and attention to reviewing the clips, accessible linkages or other information on the event and providing feedback or questions to the creator of the Index. A response sheet is also used for the risk/opportunity boxes to obtain User feedback in a convenient manner requiring minimal user time.
[0669] A simulation sheet for Users and for Experts can also be provided with the Initial sub-Index, User sub-Index, and Expert sub-Index when they are released so that Users and Experts can make changes where appropriate and conduct simulations to provide a customized perspective to the User and the Expert in a minimal amount of time. A Simulation Sheet is also provided with the risk/opportunity boxes so that Users and Experts can make changes to the assumptions, wording of the hypotheses, and conduct simulations to provide a customized perspective to the User and the Expert in a minimal amount of time. User and Expert feedback can be used to improve the simulation sheets to make it easy to change at appropriate locations and to quickly see the results of the simulation.
[0670] The following is an example of the commentary that precedes the Initial sub-Index that can be accessible to users as events unfold and which tie into the Initial sub-Index when it is put out on the internet website. In this case it relates to category 5 entitled international political and economic factors in the behavioral aspect of the Index. It can help Users follow these developments and later the Initial Index when it is put out. For example: "Today's report on Blair shows that Blair is still popular in UK and could win the next election leading at this time by 5 points in polls. Mr. Chirac has 51% of respondents expressing lack of confidence in him and German polls show Mr. Schroeder trailing the Christian Democrats by 12 points, 49 to 37 points. Mr. Schroeder also suffered defeat in state elections in Bavaria last week. Mr Schroeder indicated a change in policy towards supporting U.S. efforts for reconstruction of Iraq in an interview with the Wall Street Journal. The interview with the WSJ lasted an hour and indicated a shift in German policy to U.S. led Iraq efforts. Maybe the German polls and election results had something to do with Schroeder's comments to the WSJ (Kempe and Champion, Sep. 18, 2003)."
[0672] A hypothetical point system index constructed in this way is shown in
[0673] Sentiment on each of the topics is shown in
[0674] (1) Negative sentiment with $100-200 billion estimated cost of war in Iraq exacerbating deficits, and continuing deflationary signs, and early signs of a housing bubble.
[0675] (2) Negative sentiment for industry with a focus on Ford debt, Lucent layoffs, and Intel outlook.
[0676] (3) Negative sentiment on governance with SEC's Pitt blundering on the Bigg's nomination.
[0677] (4) Negative for investor sentiment with continuously declining stock markets.
[0678] (5) Externally somewhat positive sentiment with expert opinion positive about a change of government in Brazil, and signs of serious action on Japan's bank debt with appointment of Takenaka to tackle this by Prime Minister Koizumi.
[0680] When a User opens his email at
[0682] a. USA Hypothesis: Big shift in economy as cracks appear in workings of capitalism, in transparency, governance, and ethics.
[0683] Evidence: "Worldcom investigation focus shifts to ousted CEO Ebbers," Wall Street Journal, Jul. 1, 2002, page 1.
[0684] b. South American Hypothesis: Will contagion affect the region or is Argentine collapse a self-contained event?
[0685] Evidence: "Winning world cup will not help Brazilian economic prospects," New York Times, Jul. 1, 2002.
[0686] c. Russian Hypothesis: Is it becoming more like the West? Is it working to Integrate into the West?
[0687] Evidence: "Russia glances at West for its new Legal Code," New York Times, Jul. 1, 2002.
[0688] d. Chinese Hypothesis: Are old avenues of growth sputtering (ex. town and village enterprises, agriculture)? Are no new paths to growth in sight?
[0689] Is democracy (political participation) a major unmet challenge?
[0690] Evidence: "Hong Kong's lack of political progress," Wall Street Journal, Jul. 1, 2002.
[0691] e. European Hypothesis: Are cracks appearing in capitalism's workings?
[0692] Evidence: "Vivendi CEO forced to resign," New York Times, Jul. 1, 2002. "Failures of privatization in Europe," Economist, Jul. 5, 2002.
[0693] Further according to the present invention, additional evidence is collected over a period time, and relevant sentences within each article are analyzed and marked if relevant to one or more topics. The question is asked and answered as to whether the hypothesis holds at
[0694] The media content distribution system according to the present invention is further discussed below with respect to a web-based implementation. Therein, editor and user interfaces combine with an index and retrieval system to accomplish organization and distribution of media content according to the present invention. It should be understood that the media content distribution system according to the present invention, although discussed in terms of automated access and distribution systems, is not intended to limit the use of the method of present invention to automation of any sort. Similarly, description of the present invention in terms of a web-based environment is not intended to limit the system of the present invention to an Internet application.
[0695] Referring to
[0696] On the editor side, the editor GUI
[0697] On the user side, user GUI
[0698] The editor GUI
[0699] For each new source of media content, the editor can choose to use source definition function
[0700] Once the media content is located or stored in electronic form, the editor is able to view it in browser window
[0701] The editor is also able to use markup palette
[0702] The editor can choose to use topic/category definition function
[0703] The titles of all existing topics table objects
[0704] A first way the editor can indicate relevance of the displayed media content to a selected topic is to specify a degree of relevance (importance) in the form of a relevance score via topic selection window
[0705] A second way the editor can indicate relevance of the displayed media content to a selected topic is to add markup to the displayed media content respective of its relevance to the selected topic. For example, clicking on an add button next to a selected topic in topic selection window
[0706] The editor can also specify existing cites
[0707] The editor GUI
[0708] Referring to
[0709] Search and retrieval module
[0710] The user GUI
[0711] Topic access window
[0712] Referring to
[0713] The actual form of the markup information and the indexing information in the markup file
[0714] As discussed above, relevance scores of cites can be adjusted in response to user feedback
[0715] It may be that some cites included in the media distribution system according to the present invention do not serve as hyperlinks to electronic media content owing to varying degrees of availability of media content. Venn diagram
[0716] A method according to the present invention of selectively distributing media content based on availability of the media content is discussed with reference to
[0717] The selective media content distribution system of the present invention proceeds differently if the media content is not already available online as at
[0718] The server side information flow of a media content distribution system according to the present invention is discussed in greater detail with reference to
[0719] The topic selection
[0720] Operation of email generator
[0721] According to one embodiment, the present invention makes use of a graphic user interface implementing a progressive, organizational framework for viewing subtopics relating to a topic in the form of hypotheses relating to potential outcomes. These subtopics are preferably visually configured to convey a risk/opportunity relationship, such that a bivalent spectrum is defined with low risk and high opportunity at one end, and high risk and low opportunity at the other end. These subtopics serve as active windows to expert opinion, a bibliographic list of the most relevant citations, and further, related, selectable subtopics, such as underlying assumptions and/or an additional progressive, organizational framework of subtopics to the selected subtopic. In a preferred embodiment, selectable arrows communicating a present shift in probable outcomes are displayed on the screen. Also, frameworks for multiple, related topics and/or subtopics conveying critical information are preferably layered in a three dimensional fashion to quickly convey the information in a readily understandable manner.
[0723] Boxes A, B, C, D and F,
[0724] Clicking on each box shows the bibliographic information pertaining to that box, and the set of assumptions behind the hypothesis. The hypothesis is tested by users using news reports, new information, peer and expert opinion.
[0725] In
[0726] An example of the kind of recent bibliographic information that can show up when user clicks on boxes C or D,
[0727] Inside Box C.
[0728] 1. The Unfinished Recession, a Survey of the World Economy, Sep. 28, 2002, The Economist, cover story.
[0729] 2. After a Long Boom Weaknesses Appear in Housing Market Barta, Wall Street Journal, Oct. 3, 2002, page 1.
[0730] 3. The Housing Boom's Dark Side, Business Week, Oct. 7, 2002, Vickers and Timmons, page 122.
[0731] 4. Fiscal Crises Force Status to Endure Painful Choices, Gold and Gavin, Wall Street Journal, page 1, Oct. 7, 2002.
[0732] Inside Box D.
[0733] 1. Dealing with W, Paul Krugman, New York Times, Oct. 1, 2002.
[0734] 2. Japan and U.S.: Bubble, Bubble, Toil and Trouble, David Leonhardt, New York Times, Oct. 2, 2002.
[0735] An example of an assumption set for box D at
[0736] 1. Housing market is becoming a bubble. But the bubble will come down gradually.
[0737] 2. Consumer spending will slow down.
[0738] 3. Budget deficits will continue for the next 3-5 years.
[0739] 4. Economic growth will be sluggish for the next 3-5 years, but a Japanese style scenario of deflation and anemic growth will be avoided.
[0740] 5. Corporate governance, ethics, transparency crises will continue.
[0741] A second version of the visual feature for electronic screen is with the risk/opportunity L shaped framework based on growth or decline.
[0742] Clicking on "auto" at
[0744] This progressively organizational framework is continued on
[0745] A click on economy at
[0747] Detailed information, critical articles and expert opinion can also be accessed by clicking inside the boxes. The risk/opportunity framework of the boxes, gives an indication of where the situation lies. Arrows from one box to an adjacent box shows direction of a situation in real time. Finally, an assumption test for each box provides underlying assumptions and some idea of the strength of each assumption, so that the user can test the assumptions with the help of peer and expert opinion and arrive at better decision.
[0748] The present invention succeeds in providing users with easy access to information of high quality and relevance compared to previous technology. It should be understood that the presently preferred embodiment is a product of current technology and prevailing market forces. Thus, variations that do not depart from the gist of the invention are intended to be within the scope of the invention.