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Meg Whitman to speak at San Diego regional chamber event
Former eBay Chief Executive Officer Meg Whitman is scheduled to speak to the San Diego Regional Chamber of Commerce on Thursday, stressing her campaign's themes — creating jobs, cutting government spending and improving education.
Whitman's appearance comes at a time when she is sparring with her rival for the Republican gubernatorial nomination — Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner — over taxes.
Whitman was endorsed Monday by the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association, whose president, Jon Coupal, praised her as "the only reliable fiscal conservative in the race."
He said that "her commitment to cutting spending and eliminating waste, fraud and abuse is the way to restore prosperity to the Golden State."
The Poizner campaign responded with communications director Jarrod Agen saying, "Meg Whitman's sole record on taxes includes supporting Pete Wilson's unprecedented tax increases, which have cost Californians over $112 billion in higher taxes, and opposing across-the-board tax cuts for Californians."
Wilson, California's governor from 1991-99, is chairman of Whitman's campaign.
Poizner has proposed cutting the state's personal income tax rates, the sales tax rate and corporate tax rate — each by 10 percent — and the capital gains tax rate by 50 percent to stimulate the state's economy.
His campaign estimates that the cuts would result in increased economic activity and an inflation-adjusted 1.77 percent increase in state tax revenues the first year after they are enacted and a 4.94 percent increase the second year.
Whitman campaign press secretary Sarah Pompei said, "Poizner will have a hard time hiding behind his new-found fiscal conservatism as more Californians learn about his past support for higher taxes and his refusal to curb spending at the Department of Insurance."
Whitman has proposed cutting taxes to give businesses the incentive to invest, expand and hire more workers.
In Thursday's speech, she is expected to reiterate her goals of creating at least 2 million private sector jobs by 2015 and reducing the state workforce by 40,000, mainly by not replacing workers as they leave.
On education, Whitman would have each school graded from A to F to help parents easily determine how well their children's schools are doing; allow parents to move their children out of failing schools; insist on a "vibrant testing program" to measure student performance; give higher pay to outstanding teachers and those in mathematics and science; and automatically convert schools that fail to improve after three years to charter schools.


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October 15, 2018
Here are the key takeaways from our latest High Yield and Bank Loan Outlook report:
With the Federal Reserve (Fed) now targeting 2.00–2.25 percent on fed funds, tightening monetary policy is putting increasing pressure on corporate borrowers' balance sheets across the leveraged credit landscape. We estimate that about 30–50 percent of the increase in short-term borrowing costs to date has passed through to the cost of debt for leveraged credit, depending on sector, and we expect this passthrough to increase over the next 12 months as the Fed raises rates.
Strong earnings growth is masking this rise in borrowing costs, as interest coverage has improved over the past eight quarters. However, factors that have contributed to strong earnings growth—a favorable base effect from weakness in 2016 and 2017, and fiscal stimulus from tax cuts and government spending—will fade in 2019 and turn into headwinds by 2020. At the same time, the factors compelling the Fed to raise rates are only growing stronger, which will lead to even higher cost of debt. Given existing drivers, the balance of risk is to the downside for credit.
Source: ICE Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Credit Suisse. *Discount Margin to Maturity assumes three-year average life. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Source: ICE Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Data as of 9.30.2018. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Source: Credit Suisse. Data as of 9.30.2018. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
It is difficult to ignore the preponderance of positive economic data in the United States. Financial conditions, as measured by the Chicago Fed's National Financial Conditions index, remain loose. On a net basis, more banks are easing standards on commercial and industrial loans to large- and medium-sized firms, similar to conditions that prevailed in 2013, 2011, and even throughout the last hiking cycle between 2004–2006. Headline and core inflation are both accelerating, with the year-over-year change in the core personal consumption expenditures index now meeting the Fed's 2 percent target. Finally, with third quarter U.S. economic growth tracking another 3 percent or higher, the pace of job creation is above the level needed to keep the unemployment rate steady. In September 2018, the U.S. private sector added 201,000 jobs compared to expectations of 190,000. We estimate that a monthly pace of less than 100,000 jobs created is needed to keep the unemployment rate unchanged. The economy is firing on all cylinders, thanks in part to a temporary fiscal boost, belying the fact that we are in a period of tightening monetary policy. A few weeks after the strong jobs report, the Fed delivered its eighth rate hike in three years to close the third quarter of 2018 with a fed funds target of 2.00–2.25 percent.
The seeds of the next recession are sown during the height of economic prosperity, and this time is no different. For example, lending standards typically loosen late in the cycle, and we have seen high-risk companies take advantage of the opportunity to borrow more. In the leveraged loan market, 70 percent of new-issue institutional loan volume this year has been rated single-B, up from an average of 62 percent over the last five years. Most of that debt is being used to finance acquisitions (which include leveraged buyouts) at cycle-tight spreads. Meanwhile, the investment-grade corporate bond market's seemingly insatiable appetite for BBB-rated debt will have predictable consequences given the history of negative ratings migration during downturns. We estimate that at least 40 percent of BBB-rated companies in the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Corporate index carry debt loads greater than 4x EBITDA, which is above an average BB-rated company debt multiple. Today's easy financial conditions encourage greed even as the data urge caution.
Rumblings of crises resonating in emerging markets only add to risk. Turkey's banking system is suffering from deteriorating asset quality due to the Turkish lira's decline of almost 30 percent against the U.S. dollar since the United States imposed sanctions. To prevent a currency crisis and to control high inflation, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey was forced to raise benchmark rates to 24 percent from 17.75 percent in September. In the same vein, Argentina's central bank was also forced to raise interest rates to 60 percent in August 2018 to stem the collapse of its peso, choking borrowing in a country already facing recession. The pressing question now is what other countries will suffer from a currency collapse prompted by political scandal or protectionist American policies. China, which is engaged in a protracted trade war with the United States, is a likely candidate, as is Indonesia, where the central bank has drained nearly 10 percent from foreign reserves as part of currency intervention exercises. Mirroring the Asian crisis in the late 1990s, issues in emerging markets continue to pose significant tail risks. Emerging markets' problems will only get worse as the Fed raises rates, attracting ever more global capital to invest in dollar-denominated assets. The market is ignoring these risks based on where investors are pricing equities and credit.
We believe the Fed will continue its quarterly hiking path until rates reach 3.50 percent by the end of 2019. In addition to strong economic data, rising inflation, and a tight labor market, the Fed's rising estimate of the real neutral rate of interest (r*)— the level at which monetary policy is neither expansionary nor contractionary for the economy—is the latest such signal. The second quarter r* estimate from the Laubach-Williams model showed a sizable upward revision to the past several years, along with an uptick to 87 basis points in the second quarter of 2018. This revision puts the estimate more in line with the June Federal Open Market Committee projections, which put the neutral rate at 88 basis points. Governor Lael Brainerd, long regarded a policy dove, recently suggested that the near-term neutral rate may be even higher than this revision. Some may view this estimate as abstract, but we believe it sets a relative benchmark for policy rate setting, one which the Fed will feel compelled to exceed next year as it considers taking policy into restrictive territory to forestall further declines in unemployment and a pickup in inflation.
Restrictive monetary policy will have consequences, some of which we explore in this report by diving into leveraged credit borrower income statements and balance sheets. For now, we expect that foreign investors will continue to see the United States as a haven of opportunity, given strong economic growth and attractive rates. We agree that compelling opportunities still exist, but we caution investors not to take on too much risk at this point in the credit cycle and to take advantage of market exuberance to sell into strength and move up in credit quality.
Earnings growth in the leveraged credit market has been significant. Among our coverage universe of approximately 600 issuers, median year-over-year EBITDA growth was 12 percent in the second quarter of 2018, the highest since 2011 (see chart, next page), and some 72 percent of issuers recorded positive growth. While the balance of issuers experiencing negative EBITDA growth appears high at 28 percent, it compares favorably to the past 12-quarter average of 41 percent. The last time 28 percent of issuers experienced negative EBITDA growth was in 2007; since then it has always been higher, according to our universe. The share of leveraged credit issuers that recorded losses, so-called "zombie" companies, is at a decade low. In our universe of issuers, only six had negative 12-month trailing EBITDA as of the second quarter of 2018, five of them in the consumer discretionary sector.
According to our universe of approximately 600 issuers, median year-over-year EBITDA growth was 12 percent in the second quarter of 2018, the highest since 2011. Some 72 percent of issuers recorded positive growth.
Source: ICE BofA Merrill Lynch, Credit Suisse, Factset, Guggenheim Investments. Data as of 6.30.2018. We use median statistics to smooth large swings in earnings growth, particularly in downturn and recovery phases. Data is only available for publicly traded issuers, or approximately 60 percent of the Credit Suisse Leveraged Loan index and 70 percent of the ICE BofA Merrill Lynch High Yield Bond index. Shaded area represents period of recession.
Median interest coverage (12-month trailing EBITDA/rolling four-quarter interest expense) was 4.3x for all issuers in our tracked universe as of the second quarter of 2018. Only 13 percent of issuers have less than 2x interest coverage, a level we consider stressed and consistent with high-default periods (see chart below). This share also reflects the current makeup of the market in which CCC-rated borrowers comprise just 11 percent. In 2016, 20 percent of issuers had interest coverage below 2x, prompting a series of rating downgrades and some defaults.
The percentage of leveraged credit issuers reporting weaker interest coverage (those with coverage of less than 2x) has recovered to precrisis levels.
Source: ICE BofA Merrill Lynch, Credit Suisse, Factset, Guggenheim Investments. Data as of 6.30.2018. Shaded area represents period of recession.
Earnings growth and interest coverage look better for some sectors than others, but all look relatively healthy for now. The energy sector continues to lead growth, with median year-over-year EBITDA growth at 39 percent as of the second quarter 2018 (see chart below), a reflection of the industry's high operating leverage. Median interest coverage for that same universe is 4.4x, with 95 percent of energy issuers reporting higher 12-month trailing EBITDA than one year of interest expense (i.e. interest coverage greater than 1x), although 16 percent of these issuers have less than 2x interest coverage. Nonetheless, this is a marked improvement from mid-2016 when a quarter of the energy market generated lower 12-month EBITDA than interest expense.
Earnings growth and interest coverage look better for some sectors than others, but all look healthy. The energy sector continues to lead growth, with median year-over-year EBITDA growth at 39 percent as of the second quarter 2018.
Source: ICE BofA Merrill Lynch, Credit Suisse, Factset, Guggenheim Investments. Data as of 6.30.2018.
The utilities and communications sectors are the weakest, with 2 percent and 5 percent year-over-year earnings growth, respectively, and interest coverage below other sectors. These are not the only two metrics that our credit analysts review, but we find it concerning that despite weaker growth and lower coverage, the utilities sector trades at the tightest spread compared to other sectors in both high-yield and bank loan markets. Investors are simply not being compensated for risk. Meanwhile, energy looks the cheapest based on spread, and though median interest coverage in financials appears to be below average, it is typically not a ratio that applies to the industry as a measure of fundamental health, and 10 percent earnings growth is healthy.
In general, strong EBITDA growth and improved interest coverage pushed leveraged credit risk premiums to cycle tights as the market took note of strengthening fundamentals. Spreads currently stand at 339 basis points in the high-yield corporate bond market, and discount margins are 381 basis points in the bank loan market (see chart, next page), representing the ninth- and 20th percentile risk premium (0 percentile=historical tights), respectively, based on all available historical data. Given the average maturity in each market is between five and seven years, this suggests that investors have an unrealistically positive credit outlook in the face of the Fed's planned policy tightening. A more balanced view incorporates the positive tailwind of strong earnings growth against the headwind of the rising cost of debt.
Strong EBITDA growth and improved interest coverage pushed leveraged debt risk premiums to cycle tights of 360 basis points in high-yield corporates, and discount margins of 388 basis points in the bank loan market.
Source: ICE BofA Merrill Lynch, Credit Suisse, Guggenheim Investments. Data as of 8.31.2018.
The market is responding more to the rising tide of earnings than it is to tightening monetary policy. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding grew 5.7 percent year over year in July 2018, compared to almost flat growth at the same time last year. Consumer loans issued by commercial banks are up almost 9.0 percent year over year as of August 2018, compared to 4.4 percent growth in August 2017. The cost of borrowing is rising as monetary policy tightens, however, and this is increasingly evident in corporate income statements.
It is easier to see how the Fed raising interest rates leads to higher borrowing costs in the bank loan market. The increase in the London interbank offered rate (Libor) of about 180 basis points since December 2015 has led to a rise in cost of floating-rate loan debt. The median annual cost of debt troughed at 4.9 percent in 2015 but is averaging 5.7 percent as of June 2018, according to a loan-issuer universe we track internally. A back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests that about 58 percent of the rise in short-term interest rates has passed through to loan issuers' cost of debt, and we expect this passthrough to increase in the next 12 months due to the shift from refinancing activity to adding new debt.
Fixed coupons are common in most of the high-yield market, which means the effect of rising short-term interest rates is less obvious for corporate debt issuer borrowing costs unless the issuer is raising new debt or rolling over maturing debt at higher yields. In our universe of issuers, we found that total balance sheet debt has increased by 17 percent among publicly traded high-yield corporate bond issuers. Another passthrough channel has been floating-rate debt that already sits on crossover issuer balance sheets (those that issue in both bond and bank loan markets). For example, of the top 20 issuers in the ICE BofA Merrill Lynch High Yield index, 13 have a mix of first- or second-lien loans outstanding in addition to varying levels of bonds and notes. More broadly, 36 percent of issuers in the ICE BofA Merrill Lynch High-Yield Corporate Bond index have bank loans outstanding, representing 46 percent of debt par value (see chart below).
Of the top 20 issuers in the ICE BofA Merrill Lynch High Yield index, 13 have a mix of first- or secondlien loans outstanding in addition to varying levels of bonds and notes. More broadly, 36 percent of issuers in the ICE BofA Merrill Lynch High-Yield Corporate Bond index have bank loans outstanding, representing 46 percent of debt par value.
Source: ICE BofA Merrill Lynch, Credit Suisse, Bloomberg, Guggenheim Investments. Data as of 9.15.2018. Based on the Credit Suisse Leveraged Loan index and the ICE BofA Merrill Lynch High-Yield index.
The cost of debt has been rising for almost every subset of the leveraged credit market. For bond-only issuers, the median cost of debt troughed at 5.3 percent in 2015 and was 5.8 percent in the second quarter of 2018. For the broader leveraged credit market, including bond-only issuers, loan-only issuers, and crossover issuers, the cost of debt troughed at 5.3 percent in 2015 and was most recently 5.6 percent (see chart, next page). We believe this trend is somewhat overlooked by investors who focus on narrowing spreads over Treasurys or Libor, historically low portfolio yields, and exceptional earnings growth.
For the broader leveraged credit market, including bond-only issuers, loan-only issuers, and crossover issuers, the cost of debt troughed at 5.3 percent in 2015, and was most recently 5.6 percent.
Source: ICE Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Credit Suisse, Factset, Guggenheim Investments. Data as of 6.30.2018. Based on a universe of 607 publicly traded issuers where we could obtain income statement and balance sheet data. Guggenheim estimates assume there is a 50 percent passthrough from the Fed raising interest rates to cost of debt, according to Guggenheim's expectations of Fed hikes over the next five quarters. Guggenheim estimates are intended to be illustrative.
Strong earnings growth, healthy interest coverage, and easy access to financing leads us to expect default volume will remain low over the next 12 months, but the tide will start to turn in 2019. Factors that have contributed to strong earnings growth—a favorable base effect from weakness in 2016 and 2017, and fiscal stimulus from tax cuts and government spending—are expected to fade in 2019 and turn into headwinds by 2020. Earnings growth also faces tail risks from unintended consequences of trade wars, namely lower exports for some and rising import costs for others. Meanwhile, the factors compelling the Fed to raise rates—such as inflationary pressures from strong economic growth and a very low unemployment rate—are only growing stronger.
We expect another rate hike in 2018, and four more rate hikes in 2019, translating into at least another 125 basis-point increase in short-term borrowing costs over the next 12–15 months. If we assume only 50 percent passthrough onto median cost of debt across the 10 major Global Industry Classification Standard industries in leveraged credit, half of those industries would have to generate equal or stronger EBITDA growth in the next 12 months than they did in the second quarter of 2018 in order to maintain interest coverage at current levels (see chart, next page). Given the multitude of headwinds and fading fiscal stimulus, we do not see a catalyst for such strong earnings growth next year. This means that interest coverage and debt multiples are likely to worsen next year. The key will be to identify which credits are outliers in this scenario, and that can only be done using a bottom-up fundamental approach.
Five of the 10 major Global Industry Classification Standard industries in leveraged credit will have to generate equal or higher earnings growth next year to maintain current interest coverage. Given the multitude of headwinds and fading fiscal stimulus, we do not see a catalyst for such strong earnings growth next year.
Source: ICE BofA Merrill Lynch, Credit Suisse, Guggenheim Investments. Data as of 6.30.2018. Assumes 50 percent passthrough impact on median cost of debt from Guggenheim's projection of Fed rate hikes over the next 12 months. Red font indicates sectors that will need to generate equal to or higher earnings growth next year compared to the second quarter 2018 in order to keep interest coverage unchanged, all else equal.
Our interest-rate outlook suggests the balance of risks for credit is skewed to the downside. We expect investors will recognize the negative balance of risks building next year and price it into spreads. This explains why, on average, credit spreads tend to widen a year in advance of a recession, based on our analysis of the past three cycles (see chart below).
On average, credit spreads tend to widen a year in advance of a recession. This presents an opportunity for our Sector teams to continue finding value across the credit universe. We prefer less cyclical, more cash-heavy borrowers because they will be better equipped to survive the coming downturn.
Source: Bloomberg, Guggenheim Investments. Data as of 8.2.2018. *Note: includes recessions beginning in 1990, 2001, and 2007. 1990 cycle data begins at -13 months for AAA, AA, A, and BBB due to data availability.
For Guggenheim, this presents an opportunity for our Sector teams to continue finding value across the credit universe even as they maintain a more defensive approach than earnings trends alone might suggest. We prefer less cyclical, more cash-heavy borrowers because they will be better equipped to survive the coming downturn. Now is not the time to chase yield, but to take advantage of exuberant markets to move up in quality and position for the recession in early 2020, which means positioning for spread widening to begin next year.
Q3 2018 High-Yield and Bank Loan Outlook: Late-Cycle Boost and Boom
Q2 2018 High-Yield and Bank Loan Outlook: Not Too Soon to Think About Defaults and Recovery Rates
Q1 2018 High-Yield and Bank Loan Outlook: Be Wary of Eroding Investor Protections
The referenced indices are unmanaged and not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect transaction costs, fees or expenses.
The Credit Suisse Leveraged Loan index tracks the investable market of the U.S. dollar denominated leveraged loan market. It consists of issues rated "5B" or lower, meaning that the highest rated issues included in this index are Moody's/S&P ratings of Baa1/BB+ or Ba1/ BBB+. All loans are funded term loans with a tenor of at least one year and are made by issuers domiciled in developed countries.
The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Bank of America Merrill Lynch High-Yield index is a commonly used benchmark index for high-yield corporate bonds.
The S&P 500 index is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks, actively traded in the U.S., designed to measure the performance of the broad economy, representing all major industries.
A basis point (bps) is a unit of measure used to describe the percentage change in the value or rate of an instrument. One basis point is equivalent to 0.01%.
The three-year discount margin to maturity (dmm), also referred to as discount margin, is the yield-to-refunding of a loan facility less the current three-month Libor rate, assuming a three-year average life for the loan.
The London interbank offered rate (Libor) is a benchmark rate that a select group of banks charge each other for unsecured short-term funding.
Spread is the difference in yield to a Treasury bond of comparable maturity.
EBITDA, which stands for earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, is a commonly used proxy for the earning potential of a business.
Fixed-income investments are subject to credit, liquidity, interest rate and, depending on the instrument, counter-party risk. These risks may be increased to the extent fixed-income investments are concentrated in any one issuer, industry, region or country. The market value of fixed-income investments generally will fluctuate with, among other things, the financial condition of the obligors on the underlying debt obligations or, with respect to synthetic securities, of the obligors on or issuers of the reference obligations, general economic conditions, the condition of certain financial markets, political events, developments or trends in any particular industry. Fixed-income investments are subject to the possibility that interest rates could rise, causing their values to decline. Bank loans are generally below investment grade and may become nonperforming or impaired for a variety of reasons. Nonperforming or impaired loans may require substantial workout negotiations or restructuring that may entail, among other things, a substantial reduction in the interest rate and/or a substantial write down of the principal of the loan. In addition, certain bank loans are highly customized and, thus, may not be purchased or sold as easily as publicly-traded securities. Any secondary trading market also may be limited, and there can be no assurance that an adequate degree of liquidity will be maintained. The transferability of certain bank loans may be restricted. Risks associated with bank loans include the fact that prepayments may generally occur at any time without premium or penalty. High-yield debt securities have greater credit and liquidity risk than investment grade obligations. High-yield debt securities are generally unsecured and may be subordinated to certain other obligations of the issuer thereof. The lower rating of high-yield debt securities and below investment grade loans reflects a greater possibility that adverse changes in the financial condition of an issuer or in general economic conditions, or both, may impair the ability of the issuer thereof to make payments of principal or interest. Securities rated below investment grade are commonly referred to as "junk bonds." Risks of high-yield debt securities may include (among others): (i) limited liquidity and secondary market support, (ii) substantial market place volatility resulting from changes in prevailing interest rates, (iii) the possibility that earnings of the high-yield debt security issuer may be insufficient to meet its debt service, and (iv) the declining creditworthiness and potential for insolvency of the issuer of such high-yield debt securities during periods of rising interest rates and/ or economic downturn. An economic downturn or an increase in interest rates could severely disrupt the market for high-yield debt securities and adversely affect the value of outstanding high-yield debt securities and the ability of the issuers thereof to repay principal and interest. Issuers of high-yield debt securities may be highly leveraged and may not have available to them more traditional methods of financing. This article is distributed for informational or educational purposes only and should not be considered a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product, or as investing advice of any kind. This article is not provided in a fiduciary capacity, may not be relied upon for or in connection with the making of investment decisions, and does not constitute a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities. The content contained herein is not intended to be and should not be construed as legal or tax advice and/or a legal opinion. Always consult a financial, tax and/or legal professional regarding your specific situation. This article contains opinions of the author but not necessarily those of Guggenheim Partners or its subsidiaries. The author's opinions are subject to change without notice. Forward looking statements, estimates, and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary and non-proprietary research and other sources. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but are not assured as to accuracy. No part of this article may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of Guggenheim Partners, LLC. Past performance is not indicative of future results. There is neither representation nor warranty as to the current accuracy of, nor liability for, decisions based on such information.
The stress in this credit cycle is driven by unforgiving high interest rates.
Market and value updates by sector.
October jobs data suggests a cooling labor market.
Scott Minerd, Guggenheim Partners Global CIO and Chairman of Guggenheim Investments, joins CNBC to discuss markets on CPI day.
Karthik Narayanan, Head of Securitized for Guggenheim Investments, discusses value in the residential mortgage-backed securities market and other ABS sectors. Anne Walsh, Chief Investment Officer for Fixed Income, answers a listener question on liquidity. Jerry Cai, an economist in our Macroeconomic and Investment Research Group, brings the latest on the labor picture and an update on China.
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subset: commoncrawl


text:
Professor Sophy Smith, Director of the Institute of Creative Technologies
De Montfort University Queens Building, Room 3.05 The Gateway Leicester LE1 9BH
T: +44 (0)116 255 1551 E: firstname.lastname@example.com
Sophy Smith develops and leads initiatives to contribute to the development of distinctive knowledge and creative practice in the wider creative technologies sectors, both relating artistic and commercial practice. She is Director of DAPPer (Digital Arts Performance Practice – emerging research), a cross-sector research initiative/network where people working in all areas of digital performance can come together – practitioners, technologists, academics, organisations and all those in-between – to capture, share, discuss, experiment and develop work and ideas relating to digital art and performance.
Both Sophy's research and practice has strong impact and real-world value, directly influencing the practice of the arts, cultural and education sectors, while making a significant contribution to the advancement of knowledge and its application to the subject area and professional practice.
Elsoms Creates, funded through The Creative People and Places (CPP) programme (Arts Council England) developed new ways for arts companies to work in partnership with the business sector and has been identified by ACE as an example of best practice. The project has had strong impact across the arts and business sector, with the project described as "absolutely phenomenal" and "invaluable", in terms of developing sustainable relationships with business.
In 2013 Sophy's monograph Hip Hop Turntablism, Creativity and Collaboration was published by Ashgate, internationally recognised as being the first book on hip hop music to discuss the music on equal terms with its context. In 2017 it was re-issued in paperback.
Sophy is also an internationally renowned composer, creating electronic soundtracks for dance and theatre companies and festivals, including the 2012 Cultural Olympiad and European Capital of Culture 2013 and 2021.
In addition to her practice, Sophy produces high quality and distinctive text-based outputs and is a regular contributor to books, journals and peer reviewed conference proceedings both nationally and internationally.
Ernest Edmonds, Professor of Computational Art
T: +44 (0)116 207 8571 E: firstname.lastname@example.com
Ernest Edmonds is a pioneer computer artist and HCI innovator for whom combing creative arts practice with creative technologies has been a life-long pursuit.
In 2017 he won both the ACM SIGCHI Lifetime Achievement Award for Practice in Human-Computer Interaction and the ACM SIGGRAPH Distinguished Artist Award for Lifetime Achievement in Digital Art. He is Chairman of the Board of ISEA International, whose main activity is the annual International Symposium on Electronic Art that began in 1988. He has been elected to both the SIGGRAPH Academy and the CHI Academy.
His books include The Separable User Interface (Academic Press), Explorations in Art and Technology (Springer), and Interacting: Art, Research and the Creative Practitioner (Libri), the last two co-authored with Linda Candy. A second revised edition of Explorations is in press. His most recent book is "The Art of Interaction: what HCI can learn from Interactive Art" (Morgan & Claypool, 2018).
He is an Honorary Editor of Leonardo and Editor-in-Chief of Springer's Cultural Computing book series. In the last 50 years, Ernest has published over 400 books and papers, exhibited his artwork across the globe and been a keynote speaker in many countries. He has recently exhibited in Venice, Leicester, Denver, Vancouver, Beijing, Shanghai, and Rio de Janeiro.
His work is described in the book by Francesca Franco, "Generative Systems Art: The Work of Ernest Edmonds" (Routledge, 2017).
Tracy Harwood, Professor of Digital Culture
T: +44 (0)116207 8028 E: email@example.com
Tracy Harwood is a transdisciplinary researcher, working across computer science, arts, design, health and marketing subjects. Current projects relate to the application of emerging technologies to business and consumer contexts, including AI, Internet of things, VR and AR.
She has a management background in practice, with a PhD in negotiation behaviour, and is also manager of the university's Usability Lab. She is a specialist in mixed methods research and has taught on postgraduate and research development programmes on this approach, latterly focussing on practice-based research. She has published in leading marketing and digital creativity journals, including Journal of Services Management, Journal of Service Marketing, Journal of Consumer Behaviour, Leonardo, Digital Creativity and Journal of Visual Culture.
She is Area Editor for the European Innovation Alliance's Endorsed Transactions on Creative Technologies and a Programme Committee Member of the IEEE International Conference on Creative Lifestyle Computing.
Fabrizio Poltronieri, Lecturer in Creative Technologies
T: +44 (0)116 257 7444 E: firstname.lastname@example.com
Fabrizio Augusto Poltronieri is an award-winning computer artist, designer, researcher, writer and curator with a special interest in the relationships between art, design, digital media, gamification, and technology, whose expertise lies in the development of creative coding and its exchanges with philosophical questions.
He holds a PhD in Semiotics from the Pontifical Catholic University of São Paulo (PUC/SP), Brazil, with a thesis about the role of chance in computational art. In 2011-2012, he was awarded a fellowship to develop a postdoctoral research project on the early days of computer art at the Royal College of Art in London.
One of the outcomes of this research was a major exhibition with four pioneer computer artists. This exhibition, entitled "Primary Codes", which Dr Poltronieri co-curated and organized, featured artworks and talks by Ernest Edmonds, Frieder Nake, Harold Cohen and Paul Brown and took place in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, in June 2015.
His second postdoctoral research was at Leuphana Universität's Gamification Lab, in Lüneburg, Germany, which reflected on how the video games' universe, the notions of gamification and post-history affect language production mediated by digital apparatuses.
Two of his artworks from the "Visual Theogonies" series (Dionysus and Calliope) are in the V&A's Victoria and Albert Museum collection, in London, UK. Dr Poltronieri is currently researching Creativity and Artificial Intelligence, applying machine and deep learning techniques to the production and design of narratives, moving images and objects.
Craig Vear, Professor of Digital Performance (Music)
T: +44 (0)116 207 8131 E: firstname.lastname@example.com
Craig Vear explores the meeting point of music, creative technology, computational intelligence, mixed reality performance and gaming through practice-based research.
He is currently running two research projects: The Living Score which he investigates the changes in musicianship and creativity afforded by digital technology and its transformation of "the score".
This ranges from images of paper-scores shown on iPads through to robotics and A.I. embedded in software generating scores. And Embodied Intelligence in Music that investigates the meeting point of embodied cognition, artificial intelligence, music composition and performance, game and software philosophy, and R&D for the entertainment industry.


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Telehealth is suddenly a hot property. According to the Global Telemedicine Market Outlook for 2020, the market for telemedicine is projected to grow from $26B in 2018 to over $40B in 2020, although these estimates seem to be at the high end of projections. The investment website Investopedia ranked the firms CareClix, Doctor on Demand, myTelemedicine, Teladoc, and iCliniq as proven industry leaders in telemedicine. All of these sites offer, with varying degrees of access, almost immediate virtual consultation with a healthcare provider via smartphones, specialized apps, or websites. Some connect with billing portals to coordinate covered payments for services.
As usual, the market for psychological services is much smaller than that for medical services, but as you are all aware, telepsychology has captured the interest of mental health professionals and entrepreneurs for some time. Recently, a New York company called TalkSpace announced a partnership with Optum Behavioral Health (a UnitedHealthcare subsidiary, and the subject of recent high-profile lawsuits as discussed in my May 2019 column) to provide covered services to two million Optum insured patients. The company has raised capital of more than $100M to fund expansion, and reportedly contracts with over 5,000 therapists. Patients can text or leave voice/video messages for a flat fee of $49/monthly. Live video interactions cost more.
Predictably, enthusiasm is running ahead of practical realities in this sphere. As I have repeatedly observed in these columns, most cell phone platforms are not HIPAA compliant, and the legal atmosphere surrounding telehealth remains humid with issues relating to privacy, data ownership, and provider malpractice. But the investment community seems to believe that these issues will be satisfactorily resolved in favor of expanded remote healthcare services. They are likely right, if for no other reason that it is a safe bet to presume that most individuals seeking medical or psychological services have a more nuanced view of privacy than regulators do. After all, billions of users of Facebook and other apps share intimate personal details on the internet and have de facto voted with their thumbs to surrender privacy rights to large corporations. While lawsuits over telehealth privacy violations are almost guaranteed, it is reasonable to presume that large corporate sponsors like Optum will view these as the cost of doing business. This is a proven model in the pharmaceutical industry, where manufacturers are willing to risk multimillion dollar lawsuits or regulatory penalties because the profit margins for successful drugs are so high (although recent lawsuits pushing the manufacturers of Oxycontin, Purdue Pharmaceuticals, to the brink of bankruptcy remind us these strategies are not without significant risk).
Psychology is certainly sitting up and paying attention. Our involvement in telehealth has spanned decades, and as most of you know the first documented instance of distance mental health service provision was group therapy via closed-circuit television almost 60 years ago. I was a provider of telepsychology services 20 years ago, and likely still one of the few psychologists to provide combined pharmacological and psychological therapy across the Atlantic Ocean–from the National Naval Medical Center in Bethesda, Maryland to the hospital at Naval Air Station, Keflavik, Iceland. Much has changed, but the basic principles of patient-therapist interaction have not, nor has the complexity of regulatory oversight of distantly provided health services.
Just two months ago, a major milestone for the profession was reached when the Association of State and Provincial Psychology Boards (ASPPB) announced the successful formation of an interstate compact governing provision of telepsychology services between member jurisdictions – PSYPACT. The compact was ratified in April when a total of eight jurisdictions (IL, IA, NE, CO, UT, NM, AZ and GA) passed legislation enabling it (for some obscure reason, at least seven states or territories must be signatories to any interstate compact in order for it to go into effect). Once the signing jurisdictions form a commission and agree on regulations and procedures, it will become operational, likely sometime in 2020 or 2021. Other member states may also join in. PSYPACT will allow unlimited telepractice between member jurisdictions and up to 30 days of face-to-face practice annually for registered psychologists in compact states (read the legislation at https://www.asppb.net/mpage/micrositehp).
In many respects, this is quite an accomplishment. Interstate compacts governing healthcare practice are not common, since most states jealously guard their oversight of licensed professionals. PSYPACT could, in the long run, serve as a steppingstone to a highly desired outcome–uniform nationwide standards for licensing and practice for all psychologists, not just those who engage in telepsychology. At present, however, it seems that the main question is if PSYPACT will make a difference to commercial providers of telebehavioral or even telemedicine services. These companies are already doing multimillion dollar businesses in all states regardless of the existence of interstate compacts. By characterizing their offerings as something other than psychological service provision, or by using providers who have more permissive licensure structures (at least for certain activities), commercial telehealth entities have adopted the "any willing provider" standard that characterizes much of managed behavioral healthcare. Ask yourself: Would you rather your patients see someone whose license and practice has been verified by collaborating state boards, or someone who has signed up with minimal training or scrutiny with a commercial telehealth firm? For us, the answers are clear. But we must continue to work with regulators, legislators, and patients to ensure they share our understanding.
As important as telepsychology standards are, my attention has been consumed by another phenomenon that I believe will have an even more profound influence on how we practice than telepsychology: the patenting of behavioral interventions. Those paying attention will have noticed a significant uptick in marketing such interventions, and the FDA is now exerting regulatory approval over certain Mobile Medical Applications, or MMAs (see https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/digital-health/mobile-medical-applications for information on the MMA process). Briefly, in 2013 the FDA initiated an approval process for MMAs. This process exerts varying degrees of scrutiny over healthcare applications. The highest scrutiny placed on devices that measure or monitor physiological processes such as heart rhythm or serum glucose, because accuracy of measurement is essential to ensure patient safety and to dictate proper therapy. Devices that collect data or impart instructions regarding mental disorders, such as monitoring for symptoms of depression and suggesting interventions, have a lower degree of regulatory scrutiny. Devices that merely provide information or simplify care processes, such as schedulers, are not regulated as MMAs.
I am sure that none of you will be shocked to learn that many of these behavioral interventions are being developed and submitted for approval by pharmaceutical firms. One current app, for example, is aimed at improving patient adherence to medication, and is being marketed to pharmaceutical firms with the explicit goal of improving return on investment (more adherent patients means more pills consumed, after all). MMA approval can also extend patent protection on devices, in the same manner that drug approval extends patent protection on molecules. And an MMA or low-risk approved medical device that must be prescribed, such as the recently released Cervella, a transcranial electrotherapy stimulator in a wearable headset has a much better chance of being covered by insurors (Cervella transmits microelectrical pulses via noise cancelling headphones designed to be wearable during normal activities).
Non-medical device apps blur the line between a traditionally administered therapy and a patented regimen. Pear Therapeutics, for example, in partnership with the pharmaceutical company Novartis, is developing a CBT type intervention for patients with schizophrenia, designed to enhance response to antipsychotic medications (and of course simultaneously improve adherence). Other apps use components of recognized psychological treatments to enhance management of ADHD, major depressive disorder, and Alzheimer's disease.
Such apps have obvious appeal to Big Pharma. The psychotropic drug pipeline has slowed to a trickle, and there is increasing awareness of the limited therapeutic benefits of drug treatment. An all-in-one package that combines behavioral or psychological interventions with some form of outcomes assessment is likely to provide stronger evidence of a drug's effectiveness, and thereby increase sales. This isn't necessarily bad. The implicit acknowledgement that drugs should be combined with psychosocial or behavioral interventions is overall positive – and long overdue. Also, since most patients are treated not by specialists but in primary care, where the chances of receiving drug therapy are high and the chances of receiving psychotherapy low, a mechanism to expose patients to non-drug treatments could, perhaps, expose more patients to efficacious interventions.
But at the same time numerous risks can be envisioned. Here are two very pragmatic ones: Will insurors only pay for an FDA sanctioned treatment, and bypass equivalent treatments that aren't packaged into an approved app? Will they ignore providers who are not authorized to "prescribe" a certain app? Will patients taking certain types of medication be required to also purchase and utilize an app, where they may have little or no control over what data are collected and what patient information is being shared with app developers?
While not downplaying the significance of these pragmatic concerns, again a larger concern looms. At heart, all of these apps are built around algorithms that make fundamental assumptions about all patients and all disorders. Mr X., with a diagnosis of major depression, is anticipated to respond to an intervention in much the same way as is Mrs. Y, who receives the same intervention for the same diagnosis. And, just as we measure response to drug treatment, progress in algorithmic treatment is also likely to be measured in nomothetic ways – I imagine by a reduction in scaled scores on standardized tests of depression. A patient who fails to achieve algorithmically determined treatment goals may quickly be viewed as a treatment failure. Apps, for all their sophisticated technology and the power of their data collection, basically assume that humans behave exactly like the instructions in the user guide say they will. Real world experience repeatedly demonstrates the fallibility of this assumption. We seem to continually forget this lesson: It is less the precision of an intervention than the quality of the relationship between the patient and the provider that makes the most difference.
I'm not sure I can foresee a future where patients form working therapeutic relationships with their apps (in my own experience, Siri and I broke up after a very brief courtship. Alexa may be a nice, if quite intrusive robot, but a psychologist she is definitely not). Patients may profess to love their apps, but I have yet to see one that loves them back.
Copyright © 2019 National Register of Health Service Psychologists. All Rights Reserved.


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ArgonDigital recently held an event in Austin focusing on driving transformation in organizations. It was a terrific event; anyone who follows me or ArgonDigital on Twitter, LinkedIn or Facebook saw various pictures and comments from the event as it was happening. I know I learned a lot!
We did livestream the event for those who were not able to attend in person…which means the recording is available to anyone who would like to see it now! Below is the agenda and an abstract of each of the sessions. Also noted is where in the recording you can pick up that session.
Phil Gilbert, General Manager for Design, IBM – Keynote Speaker
Restless Reinvention: Transforming organizations to become continual disrupters
Phil Gilbert will share his story and insights on helping turn around one of the world's oldest and most respected technology companies through human centered design and a willingness to reinvent itself, and how this applies to any company, of any size.
(Starts at 5:19 in the recording)
Miki Hardisty – Principal, Kahale Technology Consulting
Riding the 'Solar Coaster' to Increased Profitability: How Deploying a BPM Solution Transformed our Infrastructure
Adaptability is critical when riding what the energy industry appropriately refers to as the "Solar Coaster." Miki Hardisty will share her experiences establishing intelligent workflows and introducing a flexible business process management tool resulting in reducing solar construction risk and increasing profits for her company.
(Starts at 1:19:00 in the recording)
Joy Beatty – Vice President, ArgonDigital
It's an Agile World: Deploying BPM Software at the Speed of Thought
Digital transformation and BPM have become a hot topic in many organizations. Agile methodologies also have gained a lot of traction in recent years. Joy will discuss some of the interesting challenges in applying agile approaches to a BPM deployment and how to overcome them so you can deliver value to your customers quickly.
(Starts at 2:20:00 in the recording)
You can find the recording here.


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What we are trying, during all these discussions and talks here, is to see if we cannot radically bring about a transformation of the mind — not accept things as they are. But to understand it, to go into it, to examine it, give your heart and your mind, with everything that you have, to find out a way of living differently.
But, that depends on you, and not on somebody else. Because in this there is no teacher, no pupil; there is no leader; there is no guru; there is no Master, no Saviour. You yourself are the teacher and the pupil; you are the Master; you are the guru; you are the leader; you are everything.
And, to understand is to transform what is. — Jiddu Krishnamurti


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Exam II: Mathematical Foundations of Risk Measurement
Exam II: Mathematical Foundations of Risk Measurement
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UR center makes the photonic match
Going through security at an airport and being checked by a walk-in body scanner could soon become a thing of the past.
Instead, a special camera would be used with a sensor that records images of what's beneath a person's clothes. A silhouette of a concealed weapon would appear in the image.
This technology being developed by Harris Corp., which could potentially take pictures of anyone at an airport, is at least a few years away from being implemented. And it requires researchers with an expertise in optics, photonics and imaging science.
That's where the University of Rochester's Center for Emerging and Innovative Sciences has stepped in.
Serving as a high-tech matchmaker, the center has not only provided about $350,000 over four years for this project but has also lined up scientists with the needed skills from UR and Rochester Institute of Technology to help Harris, which has put in about $750,000.
"The idea is to make a camera and stand back 30 feet and snap a picture," said Mark Bocko, the center's director.
With the center recently being awarded a $9.2 million grant over the next decade from the Empire State Development, the collaborations will continue. The Harris project is one of about 20 that the center nurtures each year.
Designed to bring academia and business together, the center is best known for its work in helping companies in the field of optics, photonics and imaging science — disciplines that UR and RIT have long been at the forefront.
"We try to solve problems companies bring to us and find university researchers to assist them," said Bocko, who also chairs the electrical and computer engineering department.
Another company being helped by the center is Optipro Systems in Ontario, Wayne County. In this match, Jonathan Ellis, an assistant professor of optics and mechanical engineering, and some of his graduate students are developing a probe piece that can correct imperfections in glass used for various lenses.
In still another match, a local startup firm, Clerio Vision, is being helped by the center in developing a laser technology that could correct such eye problems as near-sightedness without surgery.
UR and RIT faculty do not only apply their skills but also give their graduate students needed experience.
"There is a huge value in connecting researchers with real needs," said Wendi Heinzelman, who is dean of graduate studies at UR and a professor of electrical and computer engineering.
Helping Harris
With the camera being developed, Harris is working with university researchers who have an expertise in terahertz waves — electromagnetic waves that can penetrate clothes, luggage, plastics and many other materials that don't conduct electricity.
The terahertz camera is accompanied by a device that creates and aims terahertz waves. Since these waves cannot penetrate metal, a concealed weapon would bounce them back to the camera. Unlike a typical digital camera, the terahertz camera creates an image of the weapon on its sensor in a silicon chip.
Daniel Newman, Harris' manager for this project who is based in Rochester, said it would be much more expensive if the company had to develop this product on its own. The project began with the center helping Exelis, which was bought by Harris in June.
Four UR scientists and one from RIT, along with four graduate students at both colleges, are working with Harris on this project.
Zeljko Ignjatovic, an associate professor of electrical and computer engineering at UR, is working with Zoran Ninkov, professor of imaging science at RIT, to develop a sensor. Assisted by others on the team, they have already made a prototype camera for recording terahertz waves.
"There is a huge market besides just looking for guns," Ninkov said.
The camera could be used for various quality control checks in manufacturing because it could provide a look into what's inside most containers. It could also be used to help detect skin cancer at an early stage because the terahertz waves bounced back by cancer cells would be different from the rest of the reflected waves.
Water in a human body absorbs some of the terahertz waves, but the outlines of genitals and breasts would also appear on the sensor, but could be made into faint images if computer software was used to do so, said Ignjatovic.
"The sensors will see everything, but what the camera will capture you have control over," he said.
Unlike X-rays, terahertz waves do not ionize, which can cause chemical changes in tissue. But more research needs to be done on long-term effects.
"At first glance, it's easy to dismiss any notion that they can be damaging. Terahertz photons are not energetic enough to break chemical bonds or ionize atoms or molecules," said a 2009 MIT Technology Review article.
But the article goes on to say that the "evidence terahertz radiation damages biological systems is mixed."
Center's record
Established in 1993 as the Center for Electronic Imaging Systems, the center underwent a name change in 2008 to better fit its mission.
But all along, the center has connected researchers with the needs of businesses on particular projects. The center usually puts up a third of the funding and the business foots the rest. Most of the funds that the colleges receive go to supporting the graduate students.
Over the past decade, the UR center has provided funding for almost 300 projects, usually helping a company needing high-tech expertise to develop a product.
The economic impact of this spending, according to the center's latest annual report, was about $700 million, much of it being in increased revenues but also including about 200 new jobs.
Companies helped must be located in New York or do a significant amount of business in the state. They are typically part of the emerging photonics, optics and imaging sciences sector.
The center exemplifies the kind of partnership between colleges and businesses that is supposed to advance the local economy in the digital age.
Thomas Bifano, director of the photonics center at Boston University, said UR's matchmaking efforts are happening across the country.
Other universities — including Stanford, Duke, Arizona and Central Florida — have photonics researchers working with local companies, Bifano said, but "Rochester has been at the forefront of that for many, many years."
The director said there's likely more activity at other universities coming soon regarding photonics researchers and companies.
"As long as the university has a good system for promoting the connection and they protect the intellectual property with patents, universities can be a really fertile environment for new discoveries," he said.
Dating to the establishment of its Institute of Optics in 1929, UR has been a major player in producing top-notch talent in optics — the science of using light to perform functions previously done by electrical circuits.
The silicon chips that often carry out the functions of optics and photonics can process and move massive amounts of information much faster than electrical circuits.
Photonics researchers paired with optics and photonics businesses is a setup that'll happen much more often next year. Rochester was designated the operations and manufacturing headquarters for a $600 million federal initiative on photonics.
When the center expects to open in January, top scientists in the field will begin working on projects for the U.S. Department of Defense. New York businesses have pitched in part of a $250 million chunk of this funding. They expect some of the photonics researchers to work with them on new products and services.
Bocko, who has served as the center's director since 2010, and his executive director, Paul Ballentine, helped lay the groundwork for the federal government designating Rochester as the headquarters of the $600 million initiative this past July.
They did so by getting UR or Rochester designations for grants or programs promoting photonics. That happened in three instances, and beginning in 2012 when the center was awarded a $2.6 million federal grant to bring together UR, RIT, Monroe Community College, High Tech Rochester and the Rochester Regional Photonics Cluster.
New applications of technology
Other projects — matches between companies and university researchers — show how the center, which originally worked mostly with large companies such as Eastman Kodak Co., has extended its reach to smaller high-tech firms.
Optipro Systems needed UR expertise in optics and photonics.
The company makes and sells machines that other companies can use to grind, polish and finish glass.
This glass is made into carefully crafted lenses for movie cameras, microscopes, telescopes, satellites and other uses. In order for the lens to work well, Optipro machines must shave off extremely thin layers of glass, down to the micron level.
Mike Bechtold, Optipro president, said manually working with glass that has been shaved will oftentimes damage the piece.
"You can scratch it by having anything touch it," he said. "A piece of tissue can scratch it."
To solve the problem, the company has been paired with UR's Ellis, who has a background in optics and mechanical engineering, to develop a part for Optipro that can examine imperfections on a piece of glass without anyone having to touch it.
Ellis and his team of graduate students have been working on this probe piece for about two years, Bechtold said, adding that he thinks Ellis is close to finishing it.
Optipro is spending $139,000 to fund Ellis' research. UR has contributed $60,000 over two years.
By adding this probe piece, Bechtold said his company can sell machines that will make little to no mistakes when making that perfect sheet of glass.
"When you don't have to touch it, it's a big deal," he said.
In helping Clerio Vision, the center is trying to assist a startup that emerged after Bausch + Lomb was bought by Valeant Pharmaceuticals.
Ballentine, executive director of the center, said that Valeant was pulling back from research and, as a result, UR researchers with the help of investors stepped in.
They are developing a new laser that — without surgery — can change the cornea's ability to bend light and fix vision problems, such as near- and far-sightedness and astigmatism.
Researchers assembled by the center believe the device they are developing has the potential of eliminating the need for eyeglasses and contact lenses.
Sasha Latypova, the company's executive vice president, said she believes patients would opt for this corrective technique because it would offer a safer and easier way to fix their eyesight.
The company is spending $1.4 million over a two-year period and working with three UR researchers: Wayne Knox, Krystel Huxlin and Ellis.
Knox is in charge of determining the wavelength, power and repetition of the laser going into an eye. Huxlin is leading current animal testing and will head the human testing trials in the future. Ellis will work on the actual mechanics and movement of the laser.
Clerio Vision CEO Mikael Totterman said the company is still five to six years away from having the laser approved by the federal Food and Drug Administration. However, once it's finished, he wants to sell the lasers to refractive and cataract surgeons.
"If it works, it'll be a lot of jobs in Rochester," Ballentine said.


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Q: Is it safe to keep a vintage oven and range?
We just bought a house with a vintage stove from the '50s. We plan on doing a pretty extensive remodel. However, we love this stove and it seems to work perfectly. Would it be safe to keep such an old gas oven? Is it unlikely LA would let us keep it?
Answer This Question


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The unit you just dismantled had this inside of its mechanical innards. It looks pretty complicated… certainly someone back at the airstrip would want to take a look at it. Maybe Crafty Wobblesprocket?
- Level: 71
- Requires level 68
- Start: The Ultrasonic Screwdriver
- End: Crafty Wobblesprocket
Deliver the Ultrasonic Screwdriver to Crafty Wobblesprocket at Fizzcrank Airstrip.
- The Ultrasonic Screwdriver (Provided)
Quest Series
Upon completion of this quest you will gain:
- 2,000 experience
- 10 reputation with Valiance Expedition


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Christian County man pleads guilty in gun possession case
A Christian County man has pleaded guilty to federal gun charges, including having an Iraqi machine gun. U.S. District Judge Thomas Russell set sentencing for 45-year-old Lawrence Bussell for October 10th in Paducah. Bussell entered his guilty plea Wednesday to charges of possession of an unregistered firearm and possession of firearms by a person convicted of a misdemeanor crime of violence. In court, Bussell admitted having 13 firearms, including the Iraqi machine gun, which was of an unknown make and model. Bussell had been previously convicted of spouse abuse on two occasions in Christian County District Court. He was convicted of misdemeanor domestic violence in May of 1994, and again in August of that same year.


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Game version 2.26 contains only two changes:
- Exchange ratio on
the market set between 0.5-2 (it means you cant sell 100 pcs of any
resourse for less than 50 gold or more than 200 gold) - was 0.25-4 in
the past
- Exchange ratio on the trader's guild set the same way
We welcome your comments and suggestions! More changes coming soon!
Game version 2.26!
Official announcements from the GoF Team regarding changes, server maintenance, etc.
Post Reply
1 post • Page 1 of 1
Post Reply
1 post • Page 1 of 1


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BWY Handcream
Hand Cream, lavender, Grapefruit, nourishing, moisturizing, Vitamin E,
In stock
What it is:
Enriched with Vitamine E, our Broadway Handcream instantly nourishes and moistruzies dehydrated skin for silky smooth finish. Pleasant scent provides a relaxing experience. Compact size for easy use.
How to use:
- Wash your hands before application
- Apply a pea sized amount of lotion to the back of one hand
- Press the back of your hands together to spread the lotion evenly.


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4 Second FrenzyWebsite: http://www.jmtb02.com
Category: Action
Views: 15140
Size: 4.7 MB
50 microgames, each played in four seconds or less! This 26 member collab was accomplish with the help of amazing artists and programmers, who each pitched in their creativity to create this wonderful compilation of ADD inspired gaming. Similar to Wariowares in genre, the games range from chainsawing a zombie to parking a car perfectly. Enjoy, from all of us.


text: Who has not explored their Grandmother's cedar chest and admired all the special garments kept as treasures and mementoes of when she or her children were young. Special occasion dresses are those garments we love our children to wear on holidays, birthdays, and for photographs. Special Occasion dresses are the garments that get tucked away to admire for a lifetime and possibly pass on to the next generation.


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Chappell, M.A., C. Bech and W.A. Buttemer (1999). The relationship of central and peripheral masses to aerobic performance variation in House Sparrows. J. Exp. Biol. 202: 2269-2279.
We evaluated the relationship between organ mass and the limits to aerobic metabolism in house sparrows, Passer domesticus. The results were used to test three models of performance limitation (the central limits, peripheral limits, and symmorphosis concepts). Basal metabolism (BMR) was determined during the rest phase. The maximum oxygen consumption during exercise (VO2max) was measured in an enclosed wheel that allowed limited hovering flight. Both BMR and VO2max were unaffected by gender, but adults had significantly higher VO2max and lower BMR than juveniles. The masses of most central organs (gut, gizzard, liver, heart, kidney, and reproductive organs) differed significantly between ages. There were no gender differences in organ mass among juveniles, but liver mass differed between male and female adults. In the pooled data, BMR was positively correlated with the mass of three central organs (gut, liver, and kidney) and one peripheral effector (breast muscle); together these explained more than half of the variance in BMR (r2=0.57). In adults, BMR was positively correlated to the mass of reproductive tissue. One peripheral effector (breast muscle) and one central organ (the heart) were positively correlated to VO2max (r2=0.17 for the pooled data set). These results are consistent with a symmorphosis model of aerobic capacity. We found a significant positive relationship between BMR and VO2max in juveniles, but not in adults. Taken together, our data indicate that house sparrows can achieve elevated VO2max without paying a penalty (fitness trade-off) in the form of an increased BMR.


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Life Preservers
Considering safety from everyone's perspective
By Allen F. Weitzel
Webster's defines safety as "the condition of being safe from undergoing or causing hurt, injury or loss."
For employees, park visitors, managers and administrators, the word takes on different dynamics. Every person who works for or visits your facility has a unique perspective on safety. Let's look at these various perspectives, mixed with insight from several recreation industry professionals.
From waterparks and playgrounds to fitness clubs and sports complexes, every facility takes a slightly different approach to safety. Historical safety is practiced by facilities that believe that because a serious incident has not happened before, it never will happen. Reactionary safety appears in organizations that believe safety prevention is not necessary. If and when an event occurs, they handle it and then move on. The "ostrich" safety philosophy is exemplified by facilities that bury their heads in the sand and never even worry about what incidents could occur. Legal safety is practiced by those organizations that only implement safety standards when a regulation requires compliance, under threat of penalty. Preventive safety happens when an organization regularly self-audits the facility, analyzes its strengths and weaknesses, makes corrections before an incident can occur, and implements disaster-response procedures.
To help establish a safety philosophy for your facility, ask some key questions: What areas need the most safety-improvement attention? Are guest-incident trends an issue? Are employee injuries on the rise? Is there a lackluster employee attitude toward safety? Does the safety program have weak support from executives and other management? Are you behind on complying with regulatory programs? Are there obvious safety concerns, such as not enough fire extinguishers, bad lighting, poor housekeeping that has created fire hazards, chemicals incorrectly stored, etc.?
Seek opinions from all staff members when establishing a safety objective. Observe, dissect and analyze the facility, and then establish a safety action plan. Hire an outside consultant if help is needed with the evaluation.


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I'm sipping black tea and listening to classical music while I custom design a customer service workshop for a utility on the east coast. One of my deliverables for this training is to equip employees with the skill of giving lousy news to customers in such a way that the customer accepts the employees' answer as the final word.
You're in for a professional development treat today, because I'm sharing with you what I'll facilitate in Philadelphia next month. You're about to learn how to deliver bad news with confidence and in such a way that you minimize backlash from customers.
You can give a customer bad news easily and without fear of how your customer might respond when you use 4 Keys. When you have to deliver bad news to your customer, you need to:
Say what you have to say Assertively
Acknowledge how hard this is for the customer
Manage Expectations
Offer Options, when it makes sense
Let's look at each key.
Key 1: Say What You Have to Say Assertively
I believe you can say anything to anyone if you say it the right way. My definition of assertive is, say what you mean, mean what you say, without being mean when you say it.
So, give news in a straightforward way that is also gentle. Here are some ways I'm going to help my utility client provide lousy news assertively. Look at these examples and think of how you can adapt the concept to provide your customers with horrible news.
"So, the previous owner has an unpaid balance. What this means is, for you to have your services connected, the balance has to be paid first. We are not able to turn the water on until the balance is paid."
"It's possible to have a second meter placed on the property. But this can only be requested by the property owner. Even if your landlord calls us to make the request, a few things have to happen. A new water line needs to be put in, and a plumber must confirm that the property can indeed support an additional water line. The property owner will take on the expense of installing the new water line, if it can, in fact, be installed."
These are examples of saying what needs to be said, meaning what you say, without being mean when you say it. How might you adapt these statements to fit your interactions with customers?
Key 2: Acknowledge How Hard This Is For the Customer
Another way to look at this is, empathize with the customer's situation. A little empathy from you can make it easier to accept the bad news, and it sets your company up as an entity that cares about its customers. Acknowledge how hard it is, like this.
"I realize this is not what you want to hear."
"I'd be upset, too."
"I understand why you feel that way. We've had other customers in this situation, and here's what we found worked best."
"I realize this whole thing has been frustrating for you."
After statements like these, you'll need to go into advising the customer on any next steps. Here's one way to acknowledge how hard things are and immediately go into next steps, "I realize you're upset. I'll give you guidance on what you can do to get this charge removed."
Key 3: Manage Expectations
Managing expectations is for you to be transparent, fully disclosing everything your customer needs to know. Never hold back on details, like a potential fee to be incurred, because your customer needs all the information so that they can make the right decision. Managing expectations might look like this:
"We can send someone out to inspect the meter. If we find the meter is working properly, you will be charged $195."
Be upfront and disclose everything your customer needs to know.
Key 4: Offer Options
When you can give customers options, they feel like you're on their side, that you're trying to help. Telling a customer, "You might call your landlord to see how they want to handle the past balance." or "You always have the option of hiring your plumber" is what I mean by offering options.
Put the four keys together, and it might sound like this,
"So, the previous owner has an unpaid balance. I realize hearing this must be frustrating for you. For you to have your services connected, the balance has to be paid first. We are not able to turn the water on until the balance is paid."
When you deliver bad news to your customers using these four keys, you come across as concerned and helpful. While your customers still won't like what they're hearing, it will be easier for them to accept what you're saying.
My course, "Delivering Bad News to a Customer" for Lynda.com and LinkedIn Learning is now live! If you struggle with how to deliver bad news to customers, you'll want to take this class.
Here's a description of the course:
Customer service is about providing the best experience to a customer—yet, a lot of the time customer service reps find that their hands are tied and that what the customer wants is not something the rep can deliver. How can CSRs work to keep the relationship with the company strong and intact? This course outlines a simple four-step approach that can be used in a variety of customer service settings. Learn about communication styles, methods, and approaches that can be applied to challenging situations like delivering bad news, handling concerns, and more.
Topics Include:
- Communicating clearly
- Acknowledging the customer's concerns
- Being open to additional questions
- Offering alternatives
- Reviewing customer service policies
- Communicating on the phone or via email
- Interacting with customers in person
Duration: 48m 13s
Watch Delivering Bad News to a Customer on LinkedIn and on Lynda.com Or, bring this training to your company.


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Finding Funding Sources
November 15, 2016
6:00pm - 8:00pm
Repair the World
6022 Broad Street
Pittsburgh, PA 15206
$19.95 / person
(Limited to 30 Participants)
Do you need to obtain funding for your start up business, business expansion,
non profit or community program?
The #ConnectingKing Vernard Alexander has been working hard to develop a comprehensive list of options to help you obtain funding. In addition to going over all the options, Vernard will give suggestions on Best Practices to help you get closer to obtaining funding. This includes finding traditional and nontraditional funding $20,000 or less.
Jason Jones
Jason has a strong background in management of people and systems. He has managed the SBA Micro-loan Program Technical Assistance grant funds and other financial resources effectively to connect current and potential borrowers with education opportunities. He has worked with third-party business education providers to plan and implement specialized workshops and seminars. Managed 13 consultants and 4 employees to help with specialized consulting for borrowers at one time. While project managing for 40 borrowers
simultaneously. He is also proficient with measuring and reporting results needed to make important strategic decisions for organizations to better plan for the future.
Jason has more than 12 years of experience in the banking and community development financial institution (CDFI) industry, most recently at Woodforest National Bank as Community Development Relationship Manager where he over sees 40 branches in Pennsylvania and 16 in New York for their Community Reinvestment Act requirements. He also manages 12 Community Development Relation managers in 6 states (Illinoi, Ohio, New York, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Kentucky) as a Community Development Regional Team Lead. He oversees that each branch has reached the required amount of service and financial literacy hours, while educating the retail team on what is happening in their community for opportunities to partner with community organizations. He is also responsible for meeting the lending goals in each MSA Assessment Area.
Prior to working with Woodforest National Bank, Jason worked at few CDFI's Bridgeway Capital and Christian Evangelistic Economic Development (CEED) at a couple of different capacities. He managed the Urban Entrepreneur program that gave access to working capital in the hands of underserved, underbanked, and smaller businesses to help get them to the next level. He was promoted to the Business Education Director where he was responsible for managing Consultants, employees, and borrowers through the Technical Assistance (TA) process. Jason was responsible for creating a comprehensive plan for Micro-lender (Businesses that borrowed fifty thousand dollars and less) to educate them on marketing, financials, and business and strategic plans.
Jason has also worked in personal banking, customer service, and in the development of bank literacy programs for various organizations. In addition, he has worked with families and children as a Case Manager for Small Seeds, an organization that serves as a liaison between Children, Youth and Families services and families. He also volunteered for Operation Hope, an organization that pairs professionals and youths to be mentored in financial education. He received his B.S. in Organizational Leadership and his Master of Science in Strategic Leadership from Mountain State University. Jason has been to numerous conferences to keep his skills sharp such as Opportunity Finance Network, The San Francisco Federal Conference, and AEO conference in D.C. just to name a few. He is a published writer, most recently in Talk Magazine Winter 2015 issue (Are Predatory Business Loans the Next Credit Crisis?).


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Located in beautiful Alexandria in the heart of North Glengarry
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Marty Smith, host of the Christian Country syndicated radio show, "Today's Cross Country" was honored at this year's Christian Country Music Summer Jam in Glenpool, OK as the 2013 Radio Personality of the Year. His next award came from the International Country Gospel Music Association's Diamond Award show in West Plains, MO and he was honored as the 2013 ICGMA D.J. of the Year. "I was blown away", says Marty "I'm so humbled by the awards and so thankful to the Lord for His many blessings. I love playing the music and sharing the Gospel on the radio".
Southern Gospel News SGNScoops Digital
Gospel Music News and Information & Home of the Diamond Awards