text: Subscribe to our newsletter This thingy has to be empti pwieshh May 21, 2018 The campaign to break up Facebook Revue Programming note: the premiere episode of my new podcast, Converge, arrives on Wednesday. Find it on May 21 · Issue #141 · View online Programming note: the premiere episode of my new podcast, Converge, arrives on Wednesday. Find it on Apple or Google, or wherever fine podcasts are sold! After an April filled with crises, the heat on Facebook died down substantially this month. The company announced a litany of changes to the service designed to address concerns around data privacy, and the news cycle moved on to more pressing matters. But a campaign announced over the weekend is threatening to drag concerns about Facebook back into the spotlight — this time over antitrust.Most of us use Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, and Messenger. They're important ways for us to communicate and connect with each other.But Facebook and Mark Zuckerberg have amassed a scary amount of power. Facebook unilaterally decides the news that billions of people around the world see every day. It buys up or bankrupts potential competitors to protect its monopoly, killing innovation and choice. It tracks us almost everywhere we go on the web and, through our smartphones, even where we go in the real world. It uses this intimate data hoard to figure out how to addict us and our children to its services. And then Facebook serves up everything about us to its true customers – virtually anyone willing to pay for the ability to convince us to buy, do, or believe something.So says a letter from Freedom from Facebook, a coalition of progressive groups that includes Open Markets Institute, Demand Progress, MoveOn Civic Action, the Content Creators Coalition, Citizens Against Monopoly, Mpower Change, and Jewish Voice for Peace.They've called for Facebook to spin off Instagram, WhatsApp, and Messenger into their own independent companies; let users on competing social networks easily communicate with one another; and implement stronger privacy protections.Why now? At Axios, David McCabe has the context:The push coincides with the start of a new era at the FTC under Chairman Joe Simons, who has expressed some willingness to take on tech but also appointed a lawyer who represented Facebook to a key consumer protection position. The agency is currently investigating whether Facebook violated a previous legal agreement as a result of the Cambridge Analytica data scandal. Antitrust concerns have also been raised about Google and Amazon.Some commissioners are likely sympathetic to taking big action on Big Tech. "FTC orders are not suggestions," new Democratic Commissioner Rohit Chopra said earlier this month, with the questions about Facebook's deal with the FTC looming.On one hand, major antitrust legislation under the current administration feels like the longest of shots. To the extent that Trump is preoccupied with anything tech-related, it's Amazon, and Facebook's service has largely been a boon to his political career. On the other hand, this administration's opinions can change …….. quickly. Consider the interview that Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin gave to CNBC today following a segment about Google on 60 Minutes last night."These issues deserve to be reviewed carefully," Mnuchin said in a CNBC interview early Monday in response to a question about the CBS News report. "These are issues the Justice Department needs to look at seriously, not for any one company, but as these technology companies have a greater and greater impact on the economy."It might not even take official antitrust action to spur Facebook to make major changes. The company wound up adopting most of the principles of the Honest Ads Act — making political ads available online, along with information about their buyers and the size of the campaign — despite the fact that it still has never had a hearing. Facebook is unusually responsive to public pressure compared to its big-tech peers, which is one reason groups like Freedom from Facebook deserve attention. (It's also putting six figures into a marketing campaign to get the word out.)One lesson of the past half-decade in social is that competition has benefited Facebook, rather than hinder it. Instagram's resurgence in the past two years can be attributed largely to the rise of 24-hour ephemeral stories, a feature invented at Snapchat. The flagship app's big bet on video came after the initial success of Periscope, created by Twitter, and YouTube, created by Google.I can't imagine Facebook being forced to spin out Messenger — it feels unthinkable that the US government would block Facebook from building a messaging infrastructure for its own social network. What is a social network, after all, if not a messaging infrastructure? But Instagram and WhatsApp have been independent before, and it's a fun thought experiment to wonder what they might be like if they were independent again. Democracy Antonio Tajani: Tuesday's Zuckerberg meeting will be livestreamed www.politico.eu – Share Just when you thought the spring's hottest tech policy show, Facebook Executives Appearing Before Government Bodies, had gone on hiatus, Mark Zuckerberg agrees to have his company's latest parliamentary dressing-down livestreamed to the world.The decision marks a turnaround from previous plans, with Zuckerberg originally expected to hold closed-door meetings with leaders of Parliament's political groups and selected MEPs. The secrecy of the meeting prompted widespread criticism from MEPs, policymakers and the public."I have personally discussed with Facebook CEO Mr Zuckerberg the possibility of webstreaming meeting with him," Tajani said on Twitter. "I am glad to announce that he has accepted this new request." The Line Between Big Tech and Defense Work www.wired.com – Share Nitasha Tiku looks at the growing tension between big tech companies accepting government contracts and their rank-and-file employees:FOR MONTHS, A growing faction of Google employees has tried to force the company to drop out of a controversial military program called Project Maven. More than 4,000 employees, including dozens of senior engineers, have signed a petition asking Google to cancel the contract. Last week, Gizmodo reported that a dozen employees resigned over the project. "There are a bunch more waiting for job offers (like me) before we do so," one engineer says. On Friday, employees communicating through an internal mailing list discussed refusing to interview job candidates in order to slow the project's progress.Other tech giants have recently secured high-profile contracts to build technology for defense, military, and intelligence agencies. In March, Amazon expanded its newly launched "Secret Region" cloud services supporting top-secret work for the Department of Defense. The same week that news broke of the Google resignations, Bloomberg reported that Microsoft locked down a deal with intelligence agencies. But there's little sign of the same kind of rebellion among Amazon and Microsoft workers. Germany Acts to Tame Facebook, Learning From Its Own History of Hate www.nytimes.com – Share Katrin Bennhold goes inside Germany's "deletion center," where contractors review Facebook posts to determine whether they have violated the country's stringent hate speech laws. "It all boils down to one question," says Gerd Billen, secretary of state in Germany's Ministry of Justice and Consumer Protection, who helped write the new legislation. "Who is sovereign? Parliament or Facebook?"Banned posts, pictures and videos have routinely lingered on Facebook and other social media platforms. Now companies that systematically fail to remove "obviously illegal" content within 24 hours face fines of up to 50 million euros.The deletion center predates the legislation, but its efforts have taken on new urgency. Every day content moderators in Berlin, hired by a third-party firm and working exclusively on Facebook, pore over thousands of posts flagged by users as upsetting or potentially illegal and make a judgment: Ignore, delete or, in particularly tricky cases, "escalate" to a global team of Facebook lawyers with expertise in German regulation. Germany's Attempt to Fix Facebook Is Backfiring www.theatlantic.com – Share Linda Kintsler the deletion policies detailed in the Times article above have "backfired" because, uh, the far right doesn't like them:AfD politicians have called the NetzDG a return of Stasi-era censorship from the days of the German Democratic Republic (DDR), dubbing it "DDR 2.0" and portraying the party as a victim of censorship. Party members also moved quickly to expose perceived weak spots in the law, said Mirko Hohmann, a technology-policy researcher at the Global Public Policy Institute in Berlin. "When they want to be provocative, they write something that was borderline illegal, they take a screen shot, post it, and see if it gets deleted," Hohmann said. The law leaves it up to companies like Facebook and Twitter, with their armies of moderators newly installed in Germany, to decide within 24 hours whether a post is "manifestly" illegal and remove it—a decision that would ordinarily take weeks in a German court, Hohmann explained. "Employees at Facebook and Twitter just can't keep up." North Korea-tied hackers used Google Play and Facebook to infect defectors arstechnica.com – Share North Korean hackers tried to spy on defectors by building Android spyware and promoting it on Facebook, Dan Goodin reports:The three apps first appeared in the official Android marketplace in January and weren't removed until March when Google was privately notified. That's according to a blog post published Thursday by researchers from security company McAfee. Two apps masqueraded as security apps, and a third purported to provide information about food ingredients. Hidden functions caused them to steal device information and allow them to receive additional executable code that stole personal photos, contact lists, and text messages.The apps were spread to selected individuals, in many cases by contacting them over Facebook. The apps had about 100 downloads when Google removed them. Nation-operated espionage campaigns frequently infect a small number of carefully selected targets and keep the number small in an attempt to remain undetected. Thursday's report is the latest to document malicious apps that bypassed Google filters designed to keep bad wares out of the Play market. From the GV Archives: Human Rights in the Facebook Era globalvoices.org – Share Global Voices put together a page with more than 100 stories from the past decade about the intersection of Facebook and government. Read all of them and tell me which one was your favorite! Elsewhere Predatory behavior runs rampant in Facebook's addiction support groups www.theverge.com – Share Cat Ferguson has an important investigation into addiction support groups on Facebook. Many are swarmed with — or even run by — predatory marketers trying to drum up business, she finds:The connection between Windward Way and Affected by Addiction wouldn't have been obvious to people in the group, but the ties weren't particularly hidden, either. Mendoza operated Addiction Unscripted, the company that runs the Facebook group, out of Windward's office. There was an 800 number at the top of the Facebook group that appeared to be a general helpline, but it rang directly to the rehab's admissions department. The first time Mendoza went to Facebook HQ, he brought his boss, Windward's owner.Marketers from the treatment center had to approve every post in the group, which gave them the first opportunity to privately message good candidates for their rehab and try to talk them into going to Windward in California. They needed that edge, Mendoza explained to me a few weeks ago, because they knew a Facebook group that big would be full of other marketers, waiting to swoop in as soon as a juicy message was public. Facebook confirms mega-lease that enables Sunnyvale move www.mercurynews.com – Share Here's another huge lease for Facebook in a year that already saw them sign huge deals in San Francisco and take out nearly $1 billion in construction permits in Menlo Park. (In November it announced office space in Fremont as well.)Facebook's huge lease in Sunnyvale is now officially confirmed and will lead to a million-square-foot expansion by the social media behemoth in a city where it has never had a major operation. […]Menlo Park-based Facebook has signed leases to occupy three Sunnyvale office buildings with the addresses of 1180 Discovery Way, 1190 Discovery Way and 900 Fifth Ave., according to official notices filed by developer Jay Paul with the county Recorder's Office.Each of the five office buildings are in the size range of roughly 335,000 square feet or more. U.K. vs. U.S.: How Much of Your Personal Data Can You Get? www.nytimes.com – Share With the General Data Protection Regulation taking effect later this week, Natasha Singer and Prashant S. Rao test "how easy it soon might be for people in Europe to access their personal data compared with users in the United States."Facebook told Natasha that its self-service data download tool "has been reviewed by our data protection regulator" and would allow her "to access all of your Facebook data." The company told Prashant that the self-service tool would allow him to access only "the Facebook information available to you" and that the company "isn't able to provide additional information."Matt Steinfeld, a Facebook spokesman, said the social network's ad preferences tool reflected information it had received about users from data brokers and advertisers. The company recently said it was building a tool to show users a list of the apps and websites that Facebook receives data from when users visit them. Is Capital or Labor Winning at Your Favorite Company? Introducing the Marx Ratio www.nytimes.com – Share "Thanks to a minor provision in the 2010 Dodd-Frank financial reform law," writes Neil Irwin, "we have a tool for measuring, in rough terms at least, how much any given publicly traded firm rewards its shareholders relative to its rank-and-file employees. Behold, the Marx Ratio." Here's his take on Facebook:Facebook is wildly profitable, generating almost $635,000 in earnings per employee for shareholders. It also pays those employees extremely well, with median compensation of $240,340, for a Marx Ratio of 2.64.More of Facebook's success accrued to capital — to the company's owners — than to labor. Its profits are driven by the network effects that keep both users and advertisers wedded to it, which are owned by shareholders. Rank-and-file software developers and advertising sales workers have less ability to extract a big chunk of the value being created. Launches Instagram says "you're all caught up" in first time well spent feature techcrunch.com – Share Here's a good little Time Well Spent-inspired feature now testing in Instagram:Instagram is showing some users a mid-feed alert after a bunch of browsing that says "You're All Caught Up – You've seen all new post from the past 48 hours." When asked about it, Instagram confirmed to TechCrunch that it's testing this feature. It declined to give details about how it works, including whether the announcement means you've seen literally every post from people you follow from the last two days, or just the best ones that the algorithm has decided are worth showing you. Facebook is teaming up with Qualcomm to work on high-speed wireless internet www.theverge.com – Share One of Facebook's internet connectivity schemes is called Terragraph. It's a wireless technology that, as I mentioned here last week, has had trouble getting off the ground in San Jose. Anyway, the project will now use 60GHz technology from Qualcomm.A Qualcomm spokesperson described it as a solution for both rural areas and urban areas that simply have spotty Wi-Fi in certain regions. Field tests are set to begin in the middle of next year, but there's no word on when the Terragraph Project will actually go live. Takes Screwing Your Vocal Minority 500ish.com – Share MG Siegler rightly tees off on Twitter for abandoning its developer community — and the power users they support:What I think Twitter (and again, others) miss is that it's not so much about the explicit influence, it's far more implicit. And some of it is painfully obvious. It's the fact that such users are often the most devoted, caring, and passionate ones. And sometimes, they're at the forefront of what the rest of the user base will eventually feel because they're so into the product. Other times they offer a power user perspective, which can be useful at times in showing how the product works (and doesn't) in the ultimate "success state" of extreme usage. There are many other simple, subtle things that could be mentioned here. And finally ... Twitter for Android is getting its own emoji because of fragmentation www.theverge.com – Share There are dozens of versions of Android, and no one version ever seems to be in use by more than 20 percent of the user base. As a result, an emoji sent by a Gingerbread user might read totally differently to a Honeycomb user. World wars have started over less. Fortunately, Twitter is now taking action, updating users to one true set of emoji. This is only a funny story because until now, Twitter for desktop users saw custom emoji, and Twitter for Android users saw Android emoji. So you likely read tweets differently based on whether you were on desktop or mobile.It's fragments all the way down, people. Happy Monday! Talk to me Questions? Comments? Suggested slogans for the Freedom from Facebook campaign? email@example.com Did you enjoy this issue? If you don't want these updates anymore, please unsubscribe here If you were forwarded this newsletter and you like it, you can subscribe here Powered by Revue Share Share to Twitter Share to Facebook Subscribe to our newsletter This thingy has to be empti pwieshh


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Roth starts Cutera at buy
Roth Capital Partners launched coverage of Cutera (NASDAQ:CUTR) with a "buy" rating and $32 price target. The stock closed at $24.50 on June 23.
Cutera has built a comprehensive product portfolio, offering multiple technologies, platforms, and applications that address the major segments within the non-surgical aesthetic market, including tattoo, hair removal, resurfacing, pigment, vascular, and body contouring.
"In our opinion, the company is well-positioned to continue to drive increased productivity within its expanding U.S. sales force, accelerate international growth, and push toward more substantial profitability over the coming years, an aspect we believe remains underappreciated," writes analyst Chris Lewis.
Just this year, three of Cutera's primary competitors - Zeltiq, CynoSure, and Syneron - have been acquired. "Given the heightened strategic interest in the sector, and lack of remaining legitimate pure-play independent aesthetic device companies, we suspect Cutera may become an increasingly attractive takeout candidate to a potential suitor," he added.

subset: commoncrawl


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St Columba - Collingtree
High Street, Collingtree, Northampton
Tower Information
The tower contains a ring of five bells rung from the ground floor. Details of the bells, which were rehung in 1960 and refurbished in 2005, are as follows:
The tower contact is Mr Peter Lynton whose address is Barn Corner, Collingtree, Northampton NN4 0NF and telephone number 01604 768394
There are no regular practices but there is an occasional practice when there is a fifth Tuesday in a month. A telephone call to the tower contact is advisable before travelling. There is no ringing on Sundays.


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SOUTH S82V GPS Receiver Features:
- Customized Radio Frequency Options
- The integrated MDS series receiving radio modules include MDA (410-430MHz), MDB (430-450MHz), and MDC (450-470MHz) as alternatives, which allow the receiver to be compatible with many popular radio transmitters on the market.
- Built-in Transmitting Radio Module
- 0.5W, independent of external radio while working within short range,eg. 1-2km (in good condition).
- Huge Internal Memory
- The 4G internal memory capacity of S82V allows mass storage of measured data for long time collection, which brings great convenience to your static work.
- Separated Module Packs
- Advanced data link with both UHF receiving radio and GPRS/GSM modules built in, switchable for radio/network RTK modes. 2 modules are separately installed to reduce interference, yet still a very small receiver.
Package Includes:
- S82V GPS receiver with GSM/GPRS module and internal UHF, 2 each
- Data collector PSION Workabout Pro with Micro Survey FieldGenius GPS or Carlson SurvCE GPS, 1 each
- Data collector holder pole bracket, 1each
- GPS carbon fiber pole 2.45M, 1 each
- 30cm supporting pole, 1 each
- Tribrach with optical plummet and GPS holder, 1 each
- Carrying case, 2 each
- Heavy duty wooden tripod, 1 each
- Optional external UHF (Pacific Crest ADL Vantage Pro radio)


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What can you expect from your first visit to OSPT? What do you need to know and what do you need to bring?
read more
Find new patient forms, insurance forms and other things you may need when coming to OSPT.
Have a question for OSPT? Our FAQ section offers answers to questions we hear often from patients. See if we already have an answer for you.
Find information on participating insurance plans, common insurance terms, payment options and other useful information.
OSPT-SOUTH Office
4470 Regency Place Suite 100
White Plains, MD 20695
(301) 934-5336
American Physical Therapy Association (APTA)
National Athletic Trainers Association (NATA)
National Academy of Sports Medicine (NASM)
Mid-Atlantic Shoulder and Elbow Society (MASES)


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Dedicated foster carers from Bedfordshire were given a big pat on the back at an awards ceremony.
The evening, hosted by Central Bedfordshire Council, recognised the "incredible job" people do in helping give children a start in life they may not otherwise have had.
More than 170 people attended the event, which saw a number of foster carers presented with awards to mark their outstanding achievements and long service.
Among those to be recognised were Jacquie and Pat Albon, who received an award marking 25 years of fostering.
The couple, who foster for Central Bedfordshire Council despite living just over the Bedford border in Sharnbrook, said: "We have cared for more than 100 children in the last 25 years, and it has been a privilege and a joy to be part of these young people's lives."
Councillor Carole Hegley, Executive Member for Social Care and Housing, said: "Our foster carers do a fantastic job providing a safe, stable and nurturing environment so children can flourish and meet their full potential.
"That is not always easy, and our foster carers face many challenges, often on a daily basis. However, they are dedicated, resilient and patient, and stick with our children because the rewards of fostering far outweigh the challenges."
She added: ""The ultimate reward is when you can see a child blossom and you know as a carer that you have been able to have a positive impact on a child's life."
Chief Executive Richard Carr, who helped to present the awards, said: "It was an honour and a pleasure to be able to attend the Celebration of Fostering evening and to meet many of our foster carers and hear about the fantastic work they are doing.
"I was delighted to hear about local recognition which some of our male carers have received for being 'great dads' as well as national recognition for some of the sons and daughters of our foster carers for helping to welcome other children into their homes."
Anyone interested in fostering should call 0300 300 8181, email firstname.lastname@example.com or visit www.centralbedfordshire.gov.uk/fostering
The full list of winners was:
Five years:
Illa Gohil; Kempston
Jane Grimwood; Leighton Buzzard
Abdul Akida and Jessica Kobelo
William and Sharai Ngirandi; Stevenage
Cindy and Mim Taylor-Carter; Kempston
David and Julie Thorne
Simon and Kathryn Ward; Millbrook
Ten years:
Ros and Martin Kennedy
Kay Mills and Tony Wesley
15 years:
Tracey and Graham Watkinson; Flitwick
25 years:
Jacquie and Pat Albon; Sharnbrook
Outstanding contribution to caring for children with disabilities:
Carl and Tina Rowlands; Luton
Brilliant family and friends foster carer:
Nick Waterson and Beverley Kenny; Dunstable
Outstanding contribution to fostering:
Kay Mills and Tony Wesley
Special sons and daughters:
Jorge Canham; Bletchley
Fabulous foster carer:
William and Susan Bagnall; nr Sandy


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UPDATE, 7:30 p.m.: This post was updated to provide more details on the provisions in the bill.
In what advocates describe as an historic first, a trio of senators plan to unveil a federal medical marijuana bill Tuesday.
The bill, to be introduced by Senators Rand Paul (R-Ky.), Cory Booker (D-N.J.), and Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.), would end the federal ban on medical marijuana and implement a series of reforms long sought by advocates. They include downgrading its status with the Drug Enforcement Agency from Schedule 1 to Schedule 2, allowing doctors to recommend its use in some cases to veterans, expanding access to researchers and making it easier for banks to provide services to the industry.
[What's in the historic medical marijuana bill being unveiled on Tuesday]
The Compassionate Access, Research Expansion and Respect States (CARERS) Act would "allow patients, doctors and businesses in states that have already passed medical marijuana laws to participate in those programs without fear of federal prosecution," according to a joint statement from the senators' offices. The bill will also "make overdue reforms to ensure patients – including veterans receiving care from VA facilities in states with medical marijuana programs – access the care they need."
The proposal will be unveiled at a 12:30 p.m. press conference on Tuesday, which will be streamed live here. Patients, their families and advocates will join the senators at the press conference.
The announcement was met with praise by advocates.
"This is a significant step forward when it comes to reforming marijuana laws at the federal level," Dan Riffle, director of federal policies for the Marijuana Policy Project, said in a statement. "It's long past time to end the federal ban," said Michael Collins, policy manager for the Drug Policy Alliance, said in a statement. Both describe the introduction of the bill as a first for the Senate.
[The Republican argument to end marijuana prohibition]
Advocates are riding a wave of success in recent years, with voters in four states — Alaska, Colorado, Oregon and Washington — approving the legalization of the drug for recreational use. The idea has made significant gains in public opinion as well. In December, Congress for the first time in roughly a decade of trying approved an amendment that bars the Justice Department from using its funds to prevent states from implementing their medical marijuana laws — a significant victory for proponents of the practice.
Potential Republican presidential candidates Rand, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (R) have all said they support states' rights to legalize pot, though they themselves disagree with the policy.
In recent years, several national polls have found majority support for legalizing marijuana. Differences are typically highly split by age — the young tend to disproportionately support such policies.
Medical marijuana has been approved to varying degrees in 23 states and D.C.
[A dozen ways to legalize the marijuana supply chain in any state]


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WASHINGTON – Education Secretary Betsy DeVos is preparing new policies on campus sexual misconduct that would bolster the rights of students accused of assault, harassment or rape, lessen liability for institutions of higher education and encourage schools to provide more support for victims.
The proposed rules, obtained by the New York Times, narrow the definition of sexual harassment, holding schools accountable only for formal complaints filed through proper authorities and for conduct said to have occurred on their campuses. They would also establish a higher legal standard to determine whether schools improperly addressed complaints.
The new rules would come at a particularly sensitive time, as major institutions such as Ohio State University, the University of Southern California and Michigan State University deal with explosive charges that members of their faculty and staff have perpetrated serious sexual misconduct. But for several years, higher-education administrators have maintained that sexual-misconduct rules pressed by the Obama administration unnecessarily burdened them with bureaucratic mandates that had little to do with assault or harassment, and men's rights groups have said the accused have had little recourse.
Know Your IX, a national youth-led advocacy group to end sexual violence in schools, blasted the proposed guidelines for what it feared would be a setback to victims' rights.
"The Trump Administration's proposed rules have one clear goal: to let schools off the hook for covering up rape and sexual harassment," Sage Carson, a Know Your IX manager, wrote in a statement. "These draft rules would enable systematic sexual assault at schools like Ohio State and Michigan State … while letting schools avoid liability by deterring reports of sexual assault."
Unlike the Obama administration's guidance documents, the Trump administration's new rules will have the force of law and can go into effect without an act of Congress, after a public comment period.
Liz Hill, an Education Department spokeswoman, said Wednesday that the department was "in the midst of a deliberative process." She said any information obtained by the Times "is premature and speculative, and therefore, we have no comment."
Last fall, DeVos rescinded a 2011 letter prepared by the Obama administration that outlined the responsibilities of schools and colleges that receive federal funding to address incidents of sexual misconduct. Victims-rights groups praised the Obama-era guidelines for aggressively holding schools accountable for complaints of sexual harassment, assault and rape that they said had often been downplayed or ignored. But critics contended that too often they trampled due-process rights for accused students.
DeVos' proposal would preserve much of the law that protects against sex discrimination, called Title IX, which for the past two decades has extended beyond gender-specific discrimination to include sexual misconduct as a form of denying students access to an education. But for the first time, the federal government would go beyond guidance and recommendations to codify how it defines sexual harassment in the nation's schools and the steps institutions are legally required to take to address it.
They could also be revised before they are published.
But in the short term little may change on campus, said Kathryn Nash, a Minneapolis attorney with Gray Plant Mooty who has worked with DeVos' deputies to provide input on new regulations.
"Because these are proposed regulations, institutions will not need to overhaul their systems to come into compliance," said Nash, a leading national expert on campus sexual assault. She noted that 2014's Violence Against Women Act already requires universities to conduct fair and thorough investigations. "Under the proposed regulations schools will still have the right to choose the evidentiary standard [by which they adjudicate cases]."
The University of Minnesota released a statement Wednesday saying that it would review the policy once it is final and "determine whether any changes to our processes are warranted."
Star Tribune staff writer Liz Sawyer contributed to this report.


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Ford Motor Company is an American car manufacturer based in Detroit, and it's one of the top five car makers in the world.
Ford History
It was founded by Henry Ford in 1903 and for more than a century it has remained family owned, growing to become one of the most important names in the car industry.
Arguably Ford's greatest achievement was bringing an affordable car to the market. At the time of the company's inception, cars were made slowly by hand making them expensive and time-consuming to build, but Ford drastically improved the assembly line process.
With employees now able to put cars together faster they could produce more, and with more parts needed, 'economies of scale' meant the cost of the cars plummeted.
Owning a Ford
The company has grown a reputation for building reliable cars with a highly commended dealer network.
In a recent survey, the Fiesta, Kuga, Focus and B-Max were all given an average of more than 90 per cent for reliability by owners.
Typically, Fords avoid being hit too hard by depreciation. Due to the high sales seen by most models, the used market is full of Blue Oval-badged cars. Although this means prices don't hold particularly high, this demand ensures values will never fall off a cliff.
Ford Range Overview
The Ford Fiesta has been the best-selling car in the UK for the last nine years, while the larger Ford Focus is an award-winning family hatchback. There are various shapes and sizes of bigger, family-focused cars too, including the EcoSport crossover, Kuga SUV and B- and C-Max MPVs.
Workers are well catered for, with the Mondeo becoming synonymous with those who work long hours on the road, while the Tourneo, Ranger and Transit target those who need a bit more load space.
Ford has even become the go-to manufacturer for ordinary folk with a need for speed. There are ST variants of the Fiesta and Focus, while the latter also gets a seriously hot RS version. Ford has also brought the Mustang to the worldwide market from America, which offers excellent performance and a throaty V8 engine for a little over £30,000.


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Linking ≠ endorsement.
1) The deflation naysayers | Jérémie Cohen-Setton at Bruegelorg
2) Housing is about 75% back to normal: Report
3) Mortgage applications spike, biggest gain in six years
4) Kicking Dodd-Frank in the Teeth – NYTimescom
5) Storm-chasing home repair contractor sentenced to prison | Norwalk Reflector
6) Montana man gets 25-years for theft, burglary spree
7) Landlord in fatal fire ordered to clean up another building | Local News – WMTW Home
8) Residents reluctantly let go of cherished way of life on Bayou Corne | News | The Advocate — Baton Rouge, Louisiana
9) OXFORD, Miss.: Oxford's new ordinance deflects nature's damage | State | The Sun Herald
10) 9 sent to hospital after carbon monoxide leak in Provo homes
11) Jackson officials want businesses to help pay for landslide
12) Report: Propane leak led to 2014 Victoria house explosion | The Star Telegram
13) Rep. Chris Van Hollen's Bold Attack on Inequality | Jared Bernstein | On the Economy
14) Elites fight back against mismeasure of poverty | Al Jazeera America
15) EconoSpeak: Spend&Spend and Borrow&Borrow
16) Correcting estimates of sea level rise | EurekAlert! Science News
17) A New Ceiling for Oil Prices by Anatole Kaletsky – Project Syndicate
18) FRB: Beige Book – January 14, 2015
19) Beware Of Politicians Bearing Household Analogies – Forbes
20) What if the Public Understood How Money Works? – New Economic Perspectives
21) Hollywood Real Estate Agent Chris Cortazzo Sued Over Missing Square Footage – ABC News
22) Britain's economy is 'leading the way', head of IMF says – Telegraph
23) Eurozone deflation – a good thing? – YouTube
24) [270] Commodities melt down and bonds rally; where is the US headed? – YouTube
25) Rania Antonopoulos – Responding to the Unemployment Crisis in Greece – YouTube
26) Where are Multifamily Building Permits Rising and Falling Most? – YouTube
⇧ The deflation naysayers | Jérémie Cohen-Setton at Bruegel.org
Eurointelligence writes that this is the kind [of] argument that gives a bad name to empirical research. During the industrial revolution, growth rates were structurally larger than they were today. The world economy also had numerous regime shifts during that period. You should not average a 200 yearlong data series, and then arrive at policy conclusions for today.
…at least not without adding huge qualifiers/weights for different headwinds and tailwinds and the like that fit the full context of the given data points/history.
⇧ Housing is about 75% back to normal: Report
The weakest area of recovery is in employment of 25- to 34-year-olds, the millennial generation. It is just 46 percent back to normal levels, although it did see some gains in the latest monthly report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Employment of these young adults was at 76.4 percent in December, up from 75.5 percent a year ago, and the highest in six years, according to the BLS.
⇧ Mortgage applications spike, biggest gain in six years
"Purchase application volume was at its highest level since September 2013…and notably increased across most loan size categories, particularly for the conforming, middle of the market loan segments that had been weak for much of the past year," said Michael Fratantoni, chief economist for the MBA.
⇧ Kicking Dodd-Frank in the Teeth – NYTimescom
"If we return to the precrisis business as usual, where it's routine for people to accommodate Wall Street on these technical changes, they're just going to unravel the postcrisis regulation piece by piece. Then, we'll be right back where we started."
"The truth about Dodd-Frank is it's pretty moderate and pretty compromised already," Mr. Stanley of Americans for Financial Reform said. "Any further compromise and it tends to collapse into nothingness."
Which is exactly what Wall Street seems to be hoping for.
It was lax and no regulation that caused the Great Recession. Returning to lax and little to no regulation is inviting another collapse only worse.
⇧ Storm-chasing home repair contractor sentenced to prison | Norwalk Reflector
Ohio Attorney General Mike DeWine today announced that an Illinois man has been sentenced to prison for operating a traveling home repair scam that cost 35 Ohio victims more than $140,000.
⇧ Montana man gets 25-years for theft, burglary spree
Between 2013 and 2014, Robert Andrew Paliga was involved in a string of thefts and burglaries netting tens of thousands of dollars in stolen tools, hardware and personal items.
⇧ Landlord in fatal fire ordered to clean up another building | Local News – WMTW Home
The owner of a Portland apartment building where six people died in a fire has one week to fix fire safety issues at another building he owns in the same neighborhood.
⇧ Residents reluctantly let go of cherished way of life on Bayou Corne | News | The Advocate — Baton Rouge, Louisiana
The Romeros are among the second wave of families who have accepted property buyouts from Texas Brine Co. and its insurers to settle claims related to the nearby sinkhole.
The now 31-acre swampland hole emerged overnight in early August 2012, the result of a failed salt dome cavern operated by Texas Brine. Since then, the bucolic swampland community known for its fishing and close bonds has been forever changed as residents, under a persistent evacuation order, have left.
⇧ OXFORD, Miss.: Oxford's new ordinance deflects nature's damage | State | The Sun Herald
OXFORD, Miss. — The Oxford Board of Aldermen has approved a new ordinance that allows owners of older homes to rebuild after a natural disaster, even if the house doesn't meet current setback codes and other newer regulations.
Owners should revisit their insurance coverage.
⇧ 9 sent to hospital after carbon monoxide leak in Provo homes
Authorities say nine people were taken to the hospital over the weekend after a carbon monoxide leak in a Provo fourplex.
Provo Deputy Fire Chief Tom Augustus tells the newspaper that two people had such high carbon monoxide levels in their blood that they would probably need to go into a hyperbaric chamber.
⇧ Jackson officials want businesses to help pay for landslide
JACKSON, Wyo. — Jackson town councilors want landowners involved with a huge landslide to help pay to stabilize it. But the landowners are balking, saying it's a problem for the whole town.
⇧ Report: Propane leak led to 2014 Victoria house explosion | The Star Telegram
VICTORIA, Texas —
A state report says a propane leak led to a home explosion last year in Victoria in which a 26-year-old woman was killed but her infant daughter survived.
⇧ Rep. Chris Van Hollen's Bold Attack on Inequality | Jared Bernstein | On the Economy
Jared Bernstein:
Whether you like CVH's approach here in attacking inequality through the tax code or favor ideas that target market outcomes, what's so very notable here is that a senior member of the Democrat's caucus is trying to do something about the relentless inequality that's beset the middle class and poor for decades.
He's demonstrably not saying, "well, now that we've got decent growth in the macro-economy, we're done. Let's go fundraise!" He's saying growth is necessary but it's not sufficient to reach the folks for whom GDP growth is something that shows up in the business press, not in their paychecks.
It's good to keep the conversation going.
⇧ Elites fight back against mismeasure of poverty | Al Jazeera America
The federal government's official poverty measure was developed in 1963 by Mollie Orshansky, a Social Security Administration analyst. The standard was based on three times the minimum food budget required for sufficient healthy calorie intake. Before she died in 2006, Orshansky said her poverty measure was seriously outdated.
The official federal poverty level for a family of four in 2012 was $23,050. The ALICE threshold, by contrast, was $64,689 in Connecticut, $61,200 in New Jersey and $46,495 in Indiana, the least expensive of the six states.
Inadequate wages and high housing costs are the two most significant factors in financial instability, ALICE research shows.
What's important about this new research is that the wealthy elite in six states and one midsize city are now engaged in addressing the financial hardships afflicting far too many Americans. When the elites want change, they can make it happen.
We should encourage our local business leaders and prosperous families everywhere to get to know ALICE not just because it's morally right but also because all Americans will benefit when we rid ourselves of poverty, especially poverty among children.
⇧ EconoSpeak: Spend&Spend and Borrow&Borrow
I bring this up today in light of the fact that Mitt Romney is once again running for President. The last time he did so, he advocated large tax cuts without any serious consideration of how to pay for them. I'm sure Romney will have plenty of supply-side enablers once again.
The idea is always to cut taxes, watch the deficit rise, and then call for spending cuts to hurt the poor and further enrich the rich: a very shortsighted, immoral plan.
⇧ Correcting estimates of sea level rise | EurekAlert! Science News
The acceleration in global sea level from the 20th century to the last two decades has been significantly larger than scientists previously thought, according to a new Harvard study.
The study, co-authored by Carling Hay, a post-doctoral fellow in the Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences (EPS), and Eric Morrow, a recent PhD graduate of EPS, shows that previous estimates of global sea-level rise from 1900-1990 had been over-estimated by as much as 30 percent. The report, however, confirms previous estimates of sea-level change since 1990, suggesting that the rate of sea-level change is increasing more quickly than previously believed. The new work is described in a January 14 paper published in Nature.
⇧ A New Ceiling for Oil Prices by Anatole Kaletsky – Project Syndicate
"Anatole Kaletsky is Chief Economist and Co-Chairman of Gavekal Dragonomics and Chairman of the Institute for New Economic Thinking":
The Middle East's oil potentates are now determined to reverse this loss of status, as their recent behavior in OPEC makes clear. But the only way for OPEC to restore, or even preserve, its market share is by pushing prices down to the point that US producers drastically reduce their output to balance global supply and demand. In short, the Saudis must stop being a "swing producer" and instead force US frackers into this role.
Any economics textbook would recommend exactly this outcome. Shale oil is expensive to extract and should therefore remain in the ground until all of the world's low-cost conventional oilfields are pumping at maximum output. Moreover, shale production can be cheaply turned on and off.
Competitive market conditions would therefore dictate that Saudi Arabia and other low-cost producers always operate at full capacity, while US frackers would experience the boom-bust cycles typical of commodity markets, shutting down when global demand is weak or new low-cost supplies come onstream from Iraq, Libya, Iran, or Russia, and ramping up production only during global booms when oil demand is at a peak.
Under this competitive logic, the marginal cost of US shale oil would become a ceiling for global oil prices, whereas the costs of relatively remote and marginal conventional oilfields in OPEC and Russia would set a floor. As it happens, estimates of shale-oil production costs are mostly around $50, while marginal conventional oilfields generally break even at around $20. Thus, the trading range in the brave new world of competitive oil should be roughly $20 to $50.
Now that's what we call filtering out the noise.
⇧ FRB: Beige Book – January 14, 2015
Real Estate and Construction
Single-family residential real estate sales and construction were largely flat on balance across the Districts. Sales declined somewhat on a year-over-year basis in the Boston, Cleveland, Atlanta, Chicago, Minneapolis, Kansas City, and Dallas Districts. In the Philadelphia District, year-over-year existing home sales finished lower in November, but pending December sales in some areas were up notably over December 2013. However, builders of new homes in the Philadelphia District reported weak traffic for prospective buyers and fewer contract signings. San Francisco reported that overall home sales picked up in December. Richmond reported a modest increase in housing market activity. Home prices increased modestly, on balance, in the Boston, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Atlanta, Chicago, and Dallas Districts. The Cleveland, Atlanta, Chicago, Minneapolis, and Kansas City Districts all reported slightly slower single-family residential construction activity. However, the pace of single-family home construction increased in some areas of the San Francisco District.
Commercial real estate activity expanded in most Districts. The Philadelphia District reported a modest pace of growth for commercial real estate leasing activity, and Boston reported improving conditions in commercial real estate markets overall. Commercial real estate activity in the Chicago and Kansas City Districts expanded at a moderate pace. The Dallas District noted that office leasing activity remained strong, but one contact noted a slight pullback in demand from oil and gas firms. Demand for apartments in the Dallas District also remained strong. New York City's co-op and condo market showed continued strength in the final quarter of 2014; apartment sales volume was down from the exceptionally high levels of the prior year but still fairly brisk, while selling prices were up moderately. Commercial construction activity increased in most Districts. Ac tivity grew modestly in the Philadelphia District and a bit faster in the Atlanta and Chicago Districts. Atlanta cited the multifamily residential segment as a source of growth, while Chicago credited demand for industrial and office buildings. Commercial builders in the Cleveland District reported a moderate to robust increase for projects in the pipeline. Dallas reported that overall commercial construction was strong. San Francisco reported that multifamily residential construction was strong in many areas of that District and that retail, office, industrial, or infrastructure projects were widespread across that District.
⇧ Beware Of Politicians Bearing Household Analogies – Forbes
Steve Keen:
…two fallacies in the political fetish for running government surpluses. The first is to believe that what happens to the private sector is the same as what happens to the government: if the government runs a surplus, then so will the private sector. In fact, one is the mirror-image of the other—as MMT writers like Stephanie Kelton have been pointing out for over a decade now. The second is to make an analogy between households and the government, when the correct analogy is between banks and the government. Both are sources of money. Both may direct this money unwisely—which again I'll cover in future posts—but both have to provide it, otherwise economic contraction and instability will result.
⇧ What if the Public Understood How Money Works? – New Economic Perspectives
William K. Black
Even in response to the Great Recession, when increasing the deficit through increased net government spending would greatly aid the recovery of the economy and reduce future deficits, even when the programs that would be funded would be effective and would reduce suffering, and even when there are no real resource constraints Monetary Myth Theory teaches that we should adopt austerity by slashing helpful government spending and actively makes things worse. That is a nightmare result and Europe shows it isn't hypothetical. Monetary Myth Theory is now law in the Eurozone in the form of the oxymoronic "Stability and Growth Pact," which produces recurrent crises and cripples growth. The European priestly caste chants the "TINA" (there is no alternative to austerity) mantra. Unless Monetary Myth Theory is successfully countered it must corrupt the democratic governance process by not spreading a myth that prevents the alternative of what Worstall concedes is the ready alternative of the economic reality of how money actually functions from even being heard. Worstall wants to produce the same result in the U.S. — excluding reality in favor of myths that he knows cause, gratuitously, epic levels of harm.
⇧ Hollywood Real Estate Agent Chris Cortazzo Sued Over Missing Square Footage – ABC News
A real estate agent to the stars who has worked with the likes of Ellen DeGeneres and Richard Gere, and appeared on the reality show "Million Dollar Listing," is now facing a lawsuit over accusations he overstated the square footage of a multimillion-dollar mansion.
Hong Kong multimillionaire Hiroshi Horiike says when he purchased a $12 million Malibu, California, mansion in 2007, real estate agent Chris Cortazzo told him it was the largest home in Malibu, at 15,000 square feet.
"…it's always buyer beware."
It's always what the highest court says it is if it can get it enforced; and in CA, they have so far. We'll just have to wait.
⇧ Britain's economy is 'leading the way', head of IMF says – Telegraph
Miss Lagarde was last year forced to apologise after the made dire predictions about the fate of Britain's economy under George Osborne, the Chancellor.
Oliver Blanchard, the IMF's chief economist, in 2013 warned Mr Osborne was "playing with fire" with austerity and downgraded Britain's growth forecast to just 0.7 per cent for 2013. Instead, it grew by 1.7 per cent, and is expected to hit 2.7 per cent this year.
As the philosopher said, it ain't over til it's over; and it ain't over. We're speaking here about the longer-term results of the austerity package.
⇧ Eurozone deflation – a good thing? – YouTube
The eurozone has fallen into deflation, raising fears the bloc could be set for prolonged stagnation. FT economics correspondent Ferdinando Giugliano speaks to business editor Sarah Gordon, who says deflation could be a good thing for Europe.
The key term in the video is "core." There is good deflation and bad deflation. Lower gas prices are generally good for oil/gas importing nations.
⇧ [270] Commodities melt down and bonds rally; where is the US headed? – YouTube
At 14:55
…Mark Thoma, professor of economics at University Oregon, columnist at "The Fiscal Times," and author of the blog "Economist's View." Mark tells us if the US economy is headed in the right direction. He also gives us a read on what lower long-term yields are signaling.
⇧ Rania Antonopoulos – Responding to the Unemployment Crisis in Greece – YouTube
Rania Antonopoulos, Senior Scholar at the Levy Economics Institute, describes her proposal for an "Employer of Last Resort" program in Greece. Part of the MMx seminar "The Disparate Impact of Unemployment: Macroeconomic Policy as a Tool for Race, Gender, and Age Discrimination" hosted by the Modern Money Network.
The thing in the video with which we'll take exception is that Greece can't create currency. It can through its banks issuing loans. Those loans would create euros in bank checking accounts. They could be at rates vastly lower than Greece is paying now. The issue would be with getting Greek banks to do it for the Greek government and for the sake of the people. They'd have to watch their backs.
Even though it would be completely legal, we think the banking powers that be would do whatever it would take to thwart it.
⇧ Where are Multifamily Building Permits Rising and Falling Most? – YouTube
Nationally, apartment construction remains at the highest levels since the late 1980s. But at the metro level, the latest multifamily permit numbers tell us which markets could soon see more construction … and which could see development start to wane.


text:
Pass the Popcorn, Mr. PresidentPass the Popcorn, Mr. President
The drama President Donald Trump has generated from his Oval Office stage is almost without precedent in living memory. Still, the U.S. model of the political economy has held up well thus far. No matter how heated the rhetoric or flaming the tweets, backward induction from the November midterm election shapes more tempered policy outcomes now. This is how we got tax reform last year and a budget deal in 2018. Going forward, the key consideration in financial markets is if this model also explains the administration's trade policy.
One way to understand drama is to look to the dramatic arts for inspiration. In fact, a handful of films from the past half-century may explain our current situation better than a subscription to The Hill, Politico, and Roll Call rolled together. This note will build on that explanation in pieces, from (1) our model of the political economy; (2) the most likely scenario of recrimination, rebuff, and recoil; (3) why the base case may not move markets all that much; and (4) how it may go horribly wrong.
What Did You Do in the Trade War, Daddy?
Blake Edwards (of Pink Panther fame) directed a World War II farce in 1966, What Did You Do in the War, Daddy?, that involved bluff and buster and a festival that is mistaken for a battle. The only difference between the movie and the current trade war is that, in the former, no one got hurt. This time around, equity investors were carried off the field of battle.
Part of the markets' surprise is that investors never expect politicians to fulfill campaign promises. Contrary to expectations, the president stuck to script on tax reform, regulatory relief, and trade. Candidate Trump spoke of unfair trade practices and using the threat of high tariffs and ripping up the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) as a lever to open markets. Note the two parts to his statement, suggesting threat and compromise. President Trump sicced U.S. trade negotiators on their Canadian and Mexican counterparts to revise NAFTA. He also stated his intention to impose tariffs on about $50 billion of imported goods from China, with the number possibly going higher. Subsequent chatter was all about negotiations. This is the beginning of talk, not the end of trade.
There are two parts to our view of the political economy under President Trump. For one, politicians work backward from the next election. Hot rhetoric may satisfy the voter base, but compromise is required before the midterm elections in November — only about 200 days away. This dynamic produced the legislation on tax reform and the budget. It also favors conciliation on trade, as resisting trade restrictions is a wedge issue between traditional Republicans and Democrats. (Remember that far more Democrats than Republicans on Capitol Hill voted against the implementation of NAFTA in 1993 contrary to their president's support.)
For another, after two decades of the rapid trade expansion with partners on this continent and along the Pacific Rim, U.S. industry critically relies on a global supply chain. A Republican president cannot intentionally put U.S. industry at risk. However, it takes two to tango (as in Scent of a Woman), raising the issue of why foreign leaders would bend to the Trump wind. Easy, many of our partners have followed an export-led growth strategy for decades. The importance of trade is evident in the chart on the next page. Plotted are the pairs of annual averages from 1991 to 2017 of the growth rates of the export volumes of goods and services (along the horizontal axis) and real GDP (along the vertical axis). For the 50 largest economies in the world, the growth of trade and real GDP move up together — about two for one. The green triangle represents Mexico, which has expanded exports but not done the trick of growing real GDP commensurately. Not so for the lone red dot in the upper right of the chart. China has the fastest real GDP growth over this sample and the second-fastest growth of exports.1 Why might officials on the other side of the table put in jeopardy this ambition (Mexico) or success (China)?
Importantly, there is a coarse logic in the tumult. Despite the attention directed toward China and Mexico during the campaign, the president waited until this year to impose tariffs on the former and has not given notice to the latter of withdrawing from NAFTA.
The White House only stirred the pot on trade arrangements after President Xi Jinping consolidated power at the National Party Congress late last year. Before then, President Xi was not in a position to brook a foreign slight. Having consolidated power, more so than most would have thought possible ex ante, President Xi is a confident and commanding negotiator on the other side of the table. That is, someone who can cut a deal. Meanwhile, President Trump just asked if there was some virtue in the Trans-Pacific Partnership, eight months late to the table. Why? The other name for the arrangement is "us against China," leverage in a discussion hidden to the broader public.
Similarly, the U.S. has not given the required six-month notice of ripping up NAFTA because it would intrude on the ongoing presidential elections in Mexico. This opens up windows, allowing Mexican candidates to rail against their erratic neighbor and the outgoing government to cut a deal in the fall, before the U.S. midterm elections.
Go to the Mattresses
Our best guess is that it will be ugly, with threats and counter-threats. The headlines will concern for a time, but all the threats have a long-burning fuse. The president announces that his trade representative will issue rules on a tariff that, after a comment period, have a holding period before they come into effect. Our trading partners impose countervailing taxes coming into effect when ours do. All this obscures the backroom negotiations to get to yes — a world with a few more restrictions on trade and a little less trade, but not one hurtling toward mutual assured destruction.
President Xi has already walked down the path of conciliation, offering some room for market opening and protecting intellectual property rights. His remarks, however, had a hard edge, explaining that all this must be consistent with a longer-run growth plan. Simply put, do not get in the way of Chinese ambitions. Those ambitions may make Chinese leaders agree even as they plan to undercut the U.S. position on the global stage over time.
When reading the point/counterpoint headlines, remember the fundamental arithmetical imbalance in China-U.S. bilateral trade. In round numbers, the U.S. sends about $125 billion of goods to China and receives about $500 billion of imports in return. The next two tables list the top 25 goods sent to and brought back from China. Exports, not just small in total, are concentrated in a few industries.
Our imports from China are not just big, they are important in our overall trade. Attempting to rein in imports through tariffs invites many diffuse targets but sparks targeted retaliation on exports, as has just been witnessed.
For Mexico, the deal would be NAFTA 2.0, with better protection of intellectual property rights and market access, lifted from the unsigned Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, and a nod to increased domestic content (goals on which the U.S. has already faded). The result is some near-term gain at the expense of longer-run pain. Mexico sees most of the benefits of NAFTA as already locked in, including an improved rule of law and better management practices for its domestic industries. Having demonstrated ourselves as a less reliable partner, Mexico will seek alternative outlets for its exports, which is especially threatening to U.S. agriculture.
As for Chinese accommodation, the U.S. president may get victories on opening markets and reducing subsidies to exporters, but under the radar, Chinese authorities may
- Increase subsidies for those same firms at the state and local level.
- Tighten environmental, health, or other safety requirements on some of those goods.
- Use finance to strengthen third-country trade (read the Belt and Road Initiative), muscling the U.S. out of its new global trading network.
Might those risks be enough for agreement on the protection of intellectual property rights? Perhaps, but perhaps not. To the frustration of outsiders, Chinese firms are an interlocking web of two organizations. There is a domestic management flow chart and a hierarchy of party officials. Any business decision answers to both. The former may satisfy promises about protecting intellectual property rights but the latter view themselves as agents directed to a higher cause.
Meanwhile, all this focus on trade flows forgets that those flows are paid by the capital account. That is, the U.S. current account deficit mirrors its capital account surplus, reflecting the willingness of foreign investors to accumulate obligations of the U.S. When the dust settles, the lasting and most significant imprint might be some denting of the safe-haven status of our obligations. In such circumstances, smaller current account deficits would be more expensive to fund.
All this should sound familiar. When the crime families of The Godfather go to the mattresses, the result is elevated tension for a time, breathless bold-type headlines, and a few less mobsters in the medium term.2 In the aftermath, organized crime remains organized, generally retains its original structure, and the life of New York City moves on.
Follow the Money
The best advice for understanding finance is from "Deep Throat" in All the President's Men: follow the money. If trade friction, as in our base case, is more film than fact, then the net consequences for the economy should be limited, and there is not much money to follow.
Members of the Federal Open Market Committee seem to concur that there was not a lot there, at least for now. The latest minutes only tangentially mentioned a trade dispute as a downside risk to aggregate demand. This is only half the story, and Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Eric Rosengren did a better job explaining the symmetric threat to monetary policy imposed by increased tariffs. Yes, demand takes a hit because retaliation probably reduces exports, but import prices are most likely higher too. Thus, two forces push in opposing directions relative to the Federal Reserve's (Fed's) goals — less demand to achieve full employment and more inflation to achieve price stability. Increased tariffs are similar to an oil price shock in the 1970s and 1980s (when we were net importers of oil by far), which led to the academic recommendation (from Ben Bernanke and coauthors, no less) to keep calm and carry on, holding unchanged the anticipated path of the policy rate. Again, not much there.
The wide swings in equity prices thus far this year seem to predict more significant economic dislocations than suggested by our line of reasoning. No doubt, the process may go off track (discussed later), and a change in investor sentiment might possibly explain the 7.5% decline in the S&P 500® price index from its 2018 high-water mark. However, the same index is about flat on the year. Is that evidence that there is not much to worry about, on net? The truth is there are too many parts turning in Washington, DC to extract a coherent reading about policy direction from market prices, which have to average over the full range of possibilities. Moreover, by our reading, the movements in equity prices over the past few months lack their own coherence. What did equity investors do in the trade war? Panic.
Why do we think investors panicked? The next few charts provide the joint answer. First, as shown by a moving average of the standard deviation of the daily change in components of Russell share price indices, volatility rose considerably at the beginning of this year and in lockstep. The bars give the rolling correlation of the top and middle — the largest 200 firms by capitalization in the Russell indices and firms in the middle rank of capitalization. Initially, the possibility, followed by the reality, of tax reform made their day-to-day movement less correlated. Presumably, the big guys had funds to repatriate and could return more benefits to shareholders. After 2018 opened, the volatilities of the equity values of large and midcap firms rose significantly, in tandem (the left axis), and the correlation between the two slammed to one (on the right axis). This could not have been about trade restrictions, as they have an uneven incidence across the tech-heavy, trade-dependent large firms and mid-cap ones. This was a general retreat from risk taking in equity markets.
Why do we think this was idiosyncratic to equity markets? The chart below shows the intraweek trading range of the S&P 500 equity price index and the 10-year Treasury yield. Importantly, the range between the high and low each week in the equity price index and the Treasury yield disconnected this year. Realized equity volatility this year has been much higher relative to yield volatility (compare the red squares to the blue dots).
This white paper opened with the assertion that the drama from the Trump White House is almost without precedent. On trade policy, we have been here before, and more so, which makes us a little more confident arguing that the rise in equity price volatility is overdone. The academics Baker, Bloom, and Davis have made a cottage industry of measuring uncertainty about economic policy in the U.S. and around the world. They even slice and dice the different types of policy when they count newspaper citations over time. Below is their index for searches keyed to words and phrases about trade policy from 1986 to the present in major U.S. newspapers. As is evident, President Trump got the ink flowing in national newspapers with the imposition of tariffs on steel and aluminum imports (invoking Section 232 of a 1962 trade act on the national security of imports) and Chinese imports (using Section 301 of a 1974 act about unjustified, unreasonable, or discriminatory trading practices).
In the event, the attention is a shadow of the volatility surrounding the election of 1992 and the ratification off the North American Free Trade Agreement a year later. Does anyone recall when candidate Ross Perot heard a "giant sucking sound" on trade? How about the pitched battle between Labor Secretary Robert Reich and Paul Krugman on competitiveness and the benefits from trade? (Senators Brown, Schumer, and Warren might be confused on which side of the field the two were. Krugman was wearing his hat as a trade economist and downplaying the domestic consequences of trade opening.) And what alignment of the political stars led President Clinton to find more Republican than Democratic friends on Capitol Hill to secure passage of NAFTA?
This sizable variation in attention to trade, repeated in the panel below, leaves no obvious imprint on equity prices or the foreign exchange value of the dollar. (The two lines plotted of asset prices are logarithms of the underlying series, detrended over the sample period.) Nor is the word-count on trade systematically related to the implied volatility of equity prices since 1990, not shown.
Rebel Without a Cause
If our view of the political economy is right, the drama offers the opportunity to lean into risk. Fundamentals remain well maintained, anchoring spreads, so headline-related widenings are buying opportunities. But it could go wrong, badly. By our description, trade negotiations are a game of chicken, classically memorialized in Rebel Without a Cause. The 1955 movie follows the sad end of a dare, when Sal Mineo drives off a cliff because his coat gets caught in the car door handle.
What goes wrong will show up in quantities, prices, the financing of trade, or some combination of them all.
One obvious concern is that we are at the beginning of multiple rounds of retaliatory increases in tariffs. A tariff is a tax, and its incidence depends on the rate and the base. If the process spins out of control, the World Trade Organization goes the way of that other Geneva-based international organization, the League of Nations, the effective tax rate goes up, and the base widens as nations pick sides in the dispute. Global trade slows (a distinct problem for the economies following export-led growth strategies), capital spending to support trade dries up, and world wealth declines as future growth prospects are trimmed and discounted at a higher rate because of heightened uncertainty. The indirect effect piles on multiplied losses to income from this adverse hit to aggregate demand.
Central banks presumably provide policy accommodation, with the Fed scaling back expectations of rate increases and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) and the European Central Bank (ECB) shelving their renormalization plans. Except, a higher tax rate puts upward pressure on prices and may serve as a coordinating device for large firms to fold in big price hikes. Thus, the Fed may be slow on the uptake and the net stimulus from the BOJ and ECB, looking at policy rates below zero, seems questionable. China presumably rotates away from the export market to boost domestic demand, but this comes at the cost of worsening the national balance sheet and crimping funding of foreign development projects.
The wild card is the foreign exchange value of the U.S. dollar. It is worth recalling the line of argument by the advocates of a border-adjustment tax. We heard in 2017 that the domestic balance between saving and investment determines the current account. If a higher tax rate does not change that balance, then the exchange rate adjusts one for one with the tax change to keep the dollar price of imports unchanged. That is, the dollar appreciates on the tax hike. This sounded as implausible then as it does now, with a lack of attention paid to stocks of assets and liabilities. More likely, the higher tax rate and changed attitude toward trade makes foreigners less willing to hold dollar assets, weakening the dollar's value, putting more pressure on U.S. inflation, and tightening financial conditions in Europe and Japan.
As for the domestic fallout, the table below lists the shares of total U.S. goods exports for the top 25 states. The concentration of our exports puts at risk those places specializing in agriculture, technology, and autos.
The global dimension requires looking at bilateral trade from two perspectives, which we do by using effective exchange rate indices from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS). The BIS calculates indices for 60 economies using bilateral trade shares (the sum of exports and imports) from 2011 to 2013. At the top of the next page, the chart at the left plots the shares in the U.S. index, or the places important to the U.S. economy. Consistent with the lack of diversification of our trade, only four economies bulk on the horizon (with a share greater than 10%) — China, the euro area, Canada, and Mexico. Note that we have currently picked fights with all four.
As a large economy, the U.S. figures significantly in many more places, as in the right panel plotting the U.S. weight in every other effective exchange rate index. The U.S. has more than a 10% share in the bilateral trade of 24 other economies.
The two panels on the bottom of the next page repeat the exercise for China. Yes, the U.S. has a relatively large footprint on Chinese trade, but the opportunity to switch to the euro area and Japan seems clear. As in the right panel, China matters just about everywhere, implying that a disruption in its economy casts a wide shadow.
The Phantom Menace
Outside of living memory, some presidents have been dramatic and not always dignified. After all, Andrew Jackson fired his pistol from the front porch of the White House, Grover Cleveland was followed by chants of "Ma, ma, where's my pa?" and Theodore Roosevelt routinely swam naked in the Potomac. The resilience of a market economy and a political system governed with checks and balances mostly kept really bad things from happening. That is our forecast. However, all forecasts have good and bad tails. The former is that, while the process is ugly, trade becomes freer and intellectual property rights get safer. The latter is a world in contraction with monetary policymakers hamstrung in providing sufficient new stimulus by having failed to renormalize their positions sooner, fiscal authorities with little space to do much, and the world wobbling on two poles of influence.
Oh, there is also a really bad thing that cannot be ruled out and was previewed in the weakest installment of a remarkable series. Star Wars: Episode I — The Phantom Menace gave us Jar Jar Binks, to be sure, but the movie also showed how a trade dispute between the Trade Federation and the Galactic Republic spiraled into interstellar war. That is, increased tariffs opened the door for Emperor Palpatine a long time ago in a galaxy far, far away.


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