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Towards a listed real estate investment valuation model
Douw GB Boshoff
Department of Construction Economics, University of Pretoria
ABSTRACT]]> This paper presents a Listed Real Estate Investment Valuation Model that was developed to investigate the movement in indirect real estate investment through the consideration of the underlying assets of property loan stock companies. Specific reference is given to information that is made available to shareholders by way of annual financial statements in order to determine the extent to which shareholders can make investment decisions based on this information. The study enhances the knowledge of direct vs. indirect real estate investment behaviour and provides more insight into price discovery in the property sector.
Keywords: valuation models, indirect property, listed property, price discovery
1 Introduction
Stock-market-listed property investment funds bring the two different investment classes, i.e. the stocks and bond market and the property market, together as comparable entities. Previous literature has shown that price discovery takes place in the listed property market, which might be an indication of market activity also in the direct property market. The objective of this paper is to develop a model that can measure the relationship between the share prices of Property Loan Stock (PLS) companies and their underlying assets, by investigating specifically the information provided to shareholders by means of annual financial statements.
In order to develop such a model, the stock exchange listed PLS companies in South Africa are taken as case study, with the aim to formalise the Listed Real Estate Investment Valuation Model (LREIV model).
2 Null hypothesis and alternative hypothesis]]> In order to formalise the LREIV model, it is necessary to consider the null hypothesis, which could be stated as follows:
and the alternative hypothesis as:
If the null hypothesis could be rejected, that the mentioned variables together do not explain the movement in the market capitalisation (share price x number of shares issued), or that any of the individual variables better explains the market capitalisation, then the alternative hypothesis could be accepted that the movement in market capitalisation could be explained by the movement in the mentioned variables. This would imply that shareholders of PLS companies have sufficient information available from financial statements in order to make investment decisions.
3 Data use
Data on the listed property funds was obtained from McGregor BFA, a company specialising in the capturing of financial information of companies listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange in a standard format, and included:
The data for evaluation of the PLS companies comprises panel data; which is structured as a short panel with annual data over a period of 10 years (2001 to 2010) for 19 companies. The panel is balanced for most of the observations, but some of the companies under investigation do not include the whole time frame, causing the panel to be unbalanced. Due to the time series component of the data, the observations were deflated by CPI before testing, in order to ensure that inflationary effect did not distort the findings of the study. For regression purposes the first difference of the company variables were taken.
4 Related literature
Glascock, Lu and So (2000:178) mention that the relationship between real estate investment trusts and unsecuritised real estate is most controversial. On the one hand, some studies suggest that these types of real estate are unrelated (see Gyourko and Linneman, 1988; Scott, 1990; Ross & Zisler, 1991). Newell and Keng (2005:8) also found that property is only a small contributor to the performance of listed property trusts (LPTs) in Australia. They found that LPTs correlated less with stocks over the period of 1985 to 2004 (Newell & Keng, 2005:4), and that LPTs correlated more closely with bonds over this perio (p. 5). The study furthermore noted that unlisted property trusts and property syndicates are more likely to perform like their underlying direct property assets (p. 8). This is an indication that the structure of the vehicle in which the assets are held might have an influence on the performance and the predictability of the underlying assets. A number of other studies also document that direct and indirect real estate are linked by the same common factors (see Chan, Hendershott & Sanders, 1990; Giliberto, 1990; Gyourko & Keim, 1992).
Doppegieter and Rode (2002:2) mention that also in South Africa, property securitisation is still in its infancy and has not yet reached a critical mass.
The literature therefore indicates that securitised real estate investment and direct real estate investment are still relatively unexplored in both their application and the available knowledge of application.]]> Booth and Marcato (2004:147) state that information from the indirect real estate market could be useful in understanding the direct real estate market in two ways:
"Unfortunately, property values cannot be determined by quick reference to the stock market, but have to be determined independently" (Hager & Lord, 1985:23). Although this statement questions the possibilities of this research, a number of studies do find useful information in the listed property market. It is, however, a cautionary note that there are other influences on listed property that are not evident in direct property. If these are not taken into consideration, they could obscure the information on direct property that could be obtained from listed property investment vehicles. It was also mentioned earlier that the different structure of vehicles may also show different results, and therefore special care should be taken when assessing listed property for the purpose of analysing direct property behaviour. Yavas and Yildirim (2011) investigated the price discovery in real estate markets. As in most other literature investigated, they concentrate on the returns in REITs against the returns in the net asset values (NAV). It was found that that REITs are leading, causing changes in the NAV returns to follow. The same was found by Barkham and Geltner (1995) in American as well as British property markets, using asset value indices for both. This confirms the possibility to utilise information from the listed property market for price discovery purposes in the direct property market.
Various studies consider the relationships between direct and indirect property investment behaviour. It was found that listed property shares show various similarities in behaviour to direct property investment. However, listed property shares alsoshare many similarities with other investments, like index-linked gilts (Hager & Lord, 1985:23), the general stock market and bond returns (Giliberto, 1990:259), other securities (Sagalyn, 1990:209) or exchange-traded non-real estate shares (Ling & Naranjo, 1999:483 & 505-506). Peterson and Hsieh (1997:322) on the other hand, found that most of the evidence regarding REIT performance shows that REITs tend to either outperform or perform about the same as common shares. It is evident from these studies that, due to their structure, listed real estate shares have similarities to other types of investments, causing distinct differences to direct real estate. Lizieri and Satchell (1997:12) show that property shares also exhibit a strong "contemporaneous correlation" with overall equity performance. Lee and Stevenson (2007:551) found strong links between REITs and value shares, but they state that there remain sufficient differences in their return behaviour and driving forces for the two sectors to retain a level of distinctiveness, providing portfolio optimisation opportunities for which the one is not substitutable with the other. Boudry, Coulson, Kallberg & Liu (2011: 13-14) found that although REITs have characteristics of stocks and bonds, they also share characteristics with the underlying real estate and REITs and real estate markets adjust to each other in the long term.
There are, therefore, some clear similarities between direct and indirect real estate behaviour, as well as some distinct differences. It is assumed that listed real estate funds are influenced by factors similar to those influencing direct real estate. Yet the correlation between indices of listed funds and direct property investment is questionable (Giliberto, 1990:259). Giliberto (1990:262) showed that stock and bond market movements heavily influence the performance of EREITs, but have a relatively minor effect on direct real estate investment. However, if financial market effects are disregarded, a strong positive correlation becomes evident. This suggests the presence of a common factor, or factors, in both sets of returns. Glascock et al. (2000:178179) indicated that REITs and unsecuritised real estate should be co-integrated. However, co-integration between REITs and stock markets may be absent when the key gains in securitised real estate come from management and risk-sharing rather than the underlying asset of real estate per se. This suggests that company structure may influence the level of co-integration between direct and indirect real estate. Of particular importance in this regard is the difference between the PLS structure used in South Africa and the REIT structure used in various other markets. Further evidence that the structure of the investment vehicle that owns the direct property rights could influence the perceived real estate performance, is found by Glascock et al. (2000:177-178). They indicate that as the REIT market continues to develop, institutional investors are becoming more comfortable in this form of real estate investment, and institutional holdings of REIT IPOs have increased from less than 10 per cent before 1990 to 41,7 per cent after 1990. This increase in institutional investment in the REIT market is partly facilitated by the tax reform act of 1993. The tax reform act allows more institutional investment without jeopardising the trust's tax-favoured status. These structural changes are important to portfolio management, because they may allow REITs to behave more like traditional (small-cap) shares than real estate. The evidence of tax structures influencing indirect real estate, further supports the presumption that REITs and PLSs may perform differently, as their tax treatment is different.
Institutional as well as individual investors often perceive investment in listed property vehicles or real estate funds such as PLSs or PUTs, as equivalent to investment in direct real estate, while retaining a degree of liquidity that is unavailable from other forms of real estate investment (Giliberto, 1990:259).
The studies mentioned above show that there are certain correlations between the behaviour of listed funds and direct real estate, but also indicate that real estate shares have similarities with the stock market in general.
Chan, Leung and Wang (1990:432) showed that three factors consistently drive both real estate and stock market returns: changes in the risk structures, term structures and unexpected inflation.]]> According to Gyourko and Keim (1993:39), real estate shares traded on the New York and American stock exchanges reflect changes in real estate market fundamentals more timeously than a widely used appraisal-based system. They mention two findings that are of particular relevance:
These findings have led many to conclude that share prices are not reliable guides to real estate values. They show, however, that the stock market provides reliable return measures for one of the most important, yet least studied and understood asset categories. They show that decisions based on movements in appraisal-based indexes rely, in large part, on out-dated information. The stock market, however, provides a reliable measure of real estate conditions.
Fisher, Geltner and Webb (1994:137-160) consider the history of commercial property values by comparing different methods of constructing commercial property value indices and return series. Three types of indices were examined:
1) Indices that attempt to reconstruct property market values by "unsmoothing" appraisal-based indices;
2) Indices that trace average ex post transaction prices of commercial properties over time; and
3) An index based on unlevering REIT share prices.
They found that the REIT index shows more volatility than the other indeces, and leads by up to two years, indicating that market changes could be identified much quicker in the listed property sector. In the long term, however, it shows the same pattern of returns.]]> Booth and Marcato (2004:147) found that the two main causes of the difference between the performance of direct real estate and real estate share indices were first the smoothing of valuation based indices and, second, the gearing ratio of property shares or REITs indices. It was found that there was a close relationship between de-geared indirect market indices and unsmoothed direct market indices, and that there was a larger degree of causality running from the indirect to the direct market. Booth and Marcato (2004) mentioned that direct real estate indices do not measure the performance of underlying transaction prices properly because they are based on valuations, and therefore may be subject to valuation smoothing. Indirect real estate indices do not properly measure the value investors put on the underlying assets of real estate companies, because real estate companies are geared. They furthermore note that the analysis of the relationship between annual returns from direct real estate and annual returns from real estate shares suggests that de-geared real estate share returns have useful information content that could help one to understand performance in the direct real estate market. It is shown that when direct real estate data is unsmoothed, measures of dependency between the direct and the de-geared indirect market strengthen considerably, and if it is assumed that unsmoothed direct real estate returns better reflect underlying transaction prices than direct real estate data, the results suggest that data from the market for real estate shares could be useful for filling the gaps in direct market series.
Doppegieter and Rode (2002:2) explain that the dividend yields and capitalisation rates of PUTs, when used for valuation, are not based on the same variables, and differences should be expected. They state that PUT dividend yields provide a better indication of commercial property values in South Africa than capitalisation rates.
The studies mentioned so far mostly consider the relationship between direct real estate investment and investment through listed vehicles by way of the similarities in the return achieved. The factors driving the return are discussed and the effect on share prices is tested and used to construct indices to predict return behaviour rather than value. There is also evidence of similarities between real estate share behaviour and the behaviour of other shares. Again, discussion is largely based on returns rather than actual share prices or value. No evidence of studies conclusively comparing the value of shares directly to the value of the underlying real estate could be found.
Chan et al. (1998:357) indicate that ownership structure (as well as the resulting shareholder activism) has a direct impact on the ability of shareholders to monitor management activities. In addition, this monitoring ability provided by institutional investors could affect a firm's value. According to the authors, several studies further show that the investment strategy of institutional investors has an impact on share returns and their autocorrelation.
Chan et al. (1998:357-358) continue, that fewer institutional investors invest in REIT shares than in the general stock market. In addition, REIT shares with a higher per centage of institutional ownership perform better than other REIT shares with fewer (or no) institutional investors. It therefore appears that the participation of institutional investors increases the control and monitoring ability of shareholders, and hence the value of REIT shares. Furthermore there are some large institutional investors who concentrate their investments in the REIT stock market. Consequently, the monitoring and control aspects of those REITs must be improving, as institutional investors normally have the expertise and are more willing to spend resources to monitor the companies in which they invest (Chan et al., 1998:372).
Downs and Güner (1999:518) stated that problems associated with observing the value of the underlying asset in real estate securities are frequently cited by practitioners and academics. Brennan (1990:727-728) refers to this as a latent-asset problem, i.e., the information acquisition problem of investors when the value of some assets is not observable.
From the above it appears that securitised real estate is a good alternative to direct real estate, from an investment perspective as well as an information supply perspective, but the differences should be understood. This substitution appears to be increasing, indicating the importance of understanding the relationship between securitised and direct real estate, but also that information availability could increase over time. Wilson and Zurbruegg (2003:205206) indicate that, with the emergence of securitised real estate as a viable alternative for institutional investors in the late 1980s and early 1990s, the question whether the direct and indirect property markets are driven by different forces has become an integral part of the research debate. They state that a shortcoming in the literature appears to be a lack of the effective identification of those factors that have a lasting effect on moving property markets (permanent components) and those factors that do not (transitory components). Identifying those factors is important because:
It is apparent from the above that the behaviour of listed property share prices is influenced by the involvement of institutional investors, and also by the amount of information that is available to them when they are making investment decisions. This was also found by Gillan and Starks in two separate studies (Gillian & Starks, 1999; Gillian & Starks, 2000).
5 Multiple regression of identified data
The literature discussed in section 4 indicated that there is information that has similarities in the listed as well as the direct property market. This indicates that there should be similarities in the direct property market's behaviour, as seen in the assets of the companies, as well as the share prices. The difference between direct property and the PLS company is, inter alia, that the PLS consists of a portfolio of properties, opposed to individual properties that are directly measurable when directly invested, and the PLS company is geared through financing activities, which obscures the movement of share prices in relation to the asset holdings, which financing is not taken into consideration with direct property values. Although there are other differences as well, such as the influence of stock market sentiment and irrational behaviour of investors, these do not fall under the scope of this study. The variables mentioned in the hypothesis were selected through the use of artificial intelligence techniques with the aim to achieve the following:
Prime interest rate - Influence expenses at different levels of gearing
Total assets - Provides the total value of the portfolio of assets
Deferred tax - Proxy for capital growth
Turnover - Proxy for the quality of the portfolio, i.e. total income derived
Operating profit - Proxy for effectiveness of company i.t.o. income]]> Total cost shown - Proxy for effectiveness of company i.t.o. expenses
Debenture interest paid - Proxy for cash return by shareholders
Leverage due to long term debt - Proxy for financing activities to explain gearing
Equity - Proxy for the value of the company to shareholders
The results of the multiple regression, where the above variables were used as explanatory variables and the average market capitalisation was used as dependent variable, is shown in Annexure 1. From the model summary, the adjusted R square value is indicated at 0.815. It is however necessary to test the influence of outliers on the model. By excluding all outliers outside two standard deviations, the adjusted R square change to 0.814, with the F-value reducing from 30.862 to 26.353.
From the descriptive statistics the number of observations in the pooled data could be seen to vary between different variables. This is due to information availability and in line with literature on information deficiency which might have an influence on the results. The missing values could be due to the fact that they are indeed zero, or are excluded from the financial statement item due to a different accounting policy in that specific year, or omission for whatever other reason. The regressions done thus far were done by excluding missing variables on a case-by-case basis, i.e. by accepting the other variables in that observation would sufficiently explain the dependent variable. It is, however, necessary to test the effect if the regression is done by excluding an entire observation, whether it has any missing observations for any of the variables in it. Of most concern in doing so, is the number of observations in the variable Interest Paid - Debentures, which has substantially lower observations. By excluding all observations where this variable is missing, the number of observations is significantly affected. For this reason, the effect is tested by excluding 'Interest Paid - Debentures' from the model, thereby having all observations of the balance of the variables available. Alternatively they could be included , reducing the number of observations as mentioned. By excluding Interest Paid - Debentures first from the model where missing values are excluded case-by-case, and outliers outside two standard deviations are excluded, the R square reduces from 0.814 to 0.804, but the F-value increases from 26.353 to 49.666. The critical F-value in this case is 5.01 at the 0.01 level of significance. By including Interest Paid -Debentures, but excluding all observations with missing observations in any variable, the number of observations is reduced to 43, and result in an R square of 0.618 with an F-value of 7.788. The critical F-value for this is 4.25 at the 0.01 level of significance. By excluding the Interest Paid - Debentures variable, the remaining observations for the balance of the variables with no missing data, are 84. In this case the R square is 0.539 with an F-value of 13.143. The critical F-value in this case is 4.99 at the 0.01 level of significance. By excluding Interest Paid - Debenture, it could therefore be accepted that, with the information available on debenture loans of the coefficient of determination reducing slightly, the level of significance increasing substantially, the hypothesis could be accepted that this variable does not belong in the model. The model is also best described by excluding missing values on a case-by-case basis, rather than excluding the entire observation. These results are shown in Annexure 2.
For the purposes of the hypothesis, the null hypothesis is tested that the individual items better explain the average market capitalisation than the items combined in the multiple regression. The individual items are regressed against average market capitalisation and the hypothesis is tested based on the F-values of these individual regressions. The results are shown in Table 1.
One of the variables could be accepted at the 0.05 level of significance and one at the 0.01 level. The R square as well as the F-values in relation to the respective critical F-values suggest that the multiple regression is better at explaining the market capitalisation than the individual regressed variables. Therefore, the null hypothesis that any of the individual simple regressions could equally or better explain the movement in the average market capitalisation could be rejected. The alternative hypothesis is therefore accepted that the multiple regression better explains the movement in the average market capitalisation than any of the individual regressions.
In order to confirm that the alternative hypothesis is not incorrectly accepted, the variables are also tested for multicollinearity, heteroskedasticity and serial- or autocorrelation.
Multicollinearity is tested by first considering the correlation between the independent variables. Total Assets and Equity stand out to be quite highly correlated, with a correlation of 0.84. The variance-inflating factors (VIF) shown in Annexure 1, are indicated at 6.381 and 7.002 for these two variables respectively, which, although start out on the high side, are considered not to be severe. The eigenvalues of the model have minimum and maximum figures of 0.011 and 4.578, indicating a k-value of 416 and a resultant CI-value of 20.274. All these tests indicate that a moderate to high multicollinearity is present, but it is still substantially below a severe level, where the extent to which it affects the model makes the results questionable. The levels of multi-collinearity are therefore considered to be acceptable without needing any transformation.]]> Testing for heteroskedasticity was done by way of a Goldfeld-Quandt test, where it is tested if X is greater than the critical F-value, in which case heteroskedasticity is present. For this purpose, two datasets were established, each with (n - c)/2 number of observations, with c chosen as 30 for the total of 126 observations (n), leaving each dataset for the test with 48 observations. λ is then determined by the equation:
This resulted in the value of λ being 2.502. The critical values of F are 1.91 at the 0.05 level of significance and 2.52 at the 0.01 level of significance. This indicates that the hypothesis of homoscedasticity is rejected at the 0.05 level of significance, but the test failed to reject the hypothesis at the 0.01 level. It is however an indication that some level of heteroskedasticity is suspected. Because it is not confirmed at the 0.01 level, it is sufficed with a note of possible remedial measures, which are left for further research. The data transformation was done by way of taking the first difference for the time-series data, but growth is an exponential pattern, not a straight line. It is therefore expected that the higher difference figures in bigger companies as well as later growth periods, are causing some level of heteroskedasticity. In order to resolve this, it should be considered to take the per centage growth for analysis, rather than the first difference. The level of heteroskedasticity is however not considered to be so severe that the findings of the study are jeopardised.
Serial correlation is tested by way of a Durbin-Watson test. As indicated in Annexure 2, the Durbin-Watson value for the model is 2.121. The significance points of the Durbin-Watson d statistic are dL = 1.552 and dU = 1.849 at the 0.05 of significance and dL = 1.433 and dU = 1.725 at the 0.01 level. This indicates the range for rejecting HO of positive or negative autocorrelation to be between 1.849 and 2.151 at the 0.05 level and 1.725 and 2.275 at the 0.01 level. This indicates that the hypothesis of negative or positive autocorrelation to be present could be rejected at the 0.01 level and it is therefore accepted that autocorrelation is not present. In order to ensure the test is accurate, it is worth mentioning that the data ordered for the variables is in time-series order, i.e. all observations per company grouped together in date order. This is important to test the effect of autocorrelation over time; otherwise the Durbin-Watson d statistic could provide a false output.
As mentioned in section 4, price discovery was found in the listed sector, which could provide information on the non-listed property sector. The regression done thus far proved that there are price discovery possibilities, but it needs to be determined in which direction the price discovery takes place. For this purpose a Granger causality test was performed between Total Assets and Average Market Capitalisation for 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 time lags of one year each. The F-values for this is shown in Table 2.
The green shaded areas in Table 2 show where the F-value exceeds the critical F-value for the various time lags and at different levels of significance. The F-values indicate that there is better evidence for Total Assets to granger cause Average Market Capitalisation than there is for Average Market Capitalisation to cause Total Assets. This suggess that price discovery may take place in the direct property market rather than in the listed property market. This is in contrast to the findings of both Yavas and Yildirim (2011) and Barkham and Geltner (1995) as discussed in section 4. The reason may be the data frequency used for the estimate, keeping in mind that share prices change on a daily basis, while the data used is only the annual weighted average. Because the total assets of the PLS companies are not revalued more frequently, the test cannot be performed on the actual valuations as performed here. It should however be considered to perform the test on index data, similar to the mentioned literature, taking into consideration more frequently observed direct property data. If the findings of Yavas and Yildirim (2011) and Barkham and Geltner (1995) are also applicable here, it would suggest that price discovery takes place in the short term in the listed sector, but over longer periods, prices are corrected by direct property behaviour.
From the above it can be seen that the share prices could be predicted by the changes in different company variables, given the company structure. The value of the market capitalisation, which is the product of the share price and the number of shares, can be written in terms of the LREIV model as:
]]> In conclusion, although the alternative hypothesis stated in section 2 could be accepted, it was shown that market capitalisation could be explained at a higher level of significance if the interest paid on debentures was excluded from the model. This is considered due largely to the limited information that is available in this variable, pointing to some information deficiency in the financial statements.
6 Listed real estate investment valuation model tested
In order to test the model, three transactions that took place in the period 2010/2011 will be considered:
These transactions provide an opportunity to test the LREIV model by comparing the influence of the transactions on the portfolio value, and on the share price movements for the period over which the transactions were concluded.
a Growthpoint acquisition of 50 per cent interest in V&A Waterfront]]> On 13 December 2010, Growthpoint published a cautionary announcement for its shareholders trading with its shares, due to negotiations that were under way and might influence their share price. The cautionary announcement was renewed on 26 January 2011. At that stage the Growthpoint share price started to decline (see Figure 1), but so did the PLS index. So it is difficult to say to what extent this transaction was responsible for the change in share price. Growthpoint represents approx. 31 per cent of the PLS index, so a change in Growthpoint could influence the index as a whole, but the movement in the index seemed more severe than that caused by Growthpoint.
On 14 February 2011 Growthpoint announced that it had entered into an agreement to acquire a 50 per cent interest in the V&A Waterfront with the Government Employees Pension Fund (GEPF) represented by the Public Investment Corporation (PIC), subject to certain suspensive conditions that had to be fulfilled. The information provided to shareholders included some details of the property in terms of its use, size, etc. and its financing, which was said to have been done on credit to cover the equity portion of the sellers, and by preference shares to cover the debt portion of the sellers. For the present purpose, the financing is considered as debt, as both portions basically imply debt.
On 9 June 2011 it was published that the transaction was finalised and all suspensive conditions had been met.
If the share price movement of Growthpoint is compared to the All Share Index (J203), as shown in Figure 1, it can be seen that there is a very close co-movement between Growthpoint and the J203. This confirms the findings of literature in terms of co-movement in the stock market and listed properly. It is however evident that there are short periods where differences could be seen more clearly in the 22 day moving averages of Growthpoint's share price and the J203. If the transaction of Growthpoint is considered in terms of the LREIV model, it may be possible to explain some of the movement. Growthpoint indicated that the transaction would be financed primarily by debt and preference shares, which for the purpose of this exercise is also considered as debt, indicating that there should not be a change in equity. This implies that the market capitalisation, and therefore the share price, has a priori expectation to remain constant. According to the LREIV model, the changed long term leverage ratio does however influence the situation. Taking into consideration the expectations regarding the change in Total Assets, Turnover, Operating Profit and Total Cost Shown, it seems that the market capitalisation should be altered by approximately R77,6 million. This represents approximately 0.27 per cent of the total market capitalisation at the time, based on income and expenses for the property that is assumed to be similar to the average of the portfolio, which implies a turnover increase of approximately 12 per cent of the value of the property. Given the size and type of property, this is considered to be unlikely, and therefore the sensitivity for lower levels of turnover and profit figures is also considered. The model shows a zero change in the market capitalisation with a yield of 11.06 per cent, while at an 8 per cent yield, the indication is that the market capitalisation would reduce by R252 million, or 0.87 per cent. The last mentioned figure is considered more likely and therefore it could be stated that a reduction in the share price is expected.
The above could be an explanation for the underperformance of the Growthpoint share price relative to the J203 during the timeframe in which the transaction took place, as indicated by the blue shaded area in Figure 1. Soon after completion of the transaction, new shares were issued that changed the market capitalisation due to the number of shares issued and influenced the level of leverage. The latter change and a number of subsequent share issues are also marked by negative changes in the share price. The share price either became lateral or downward moving, which was not all explained by the movement in the J203.
In conclusion, although it appears that the purchase price of the property was higher than evident in the share price movement and in the individual property attributes, the details available are limited; and more accurate details would enhance the results of the model. Generally share prices are determined by the perceptions of investors, which may be more or less rational. Therefore, some irrationality in the behaviour of investors may also cause short term differences in the results of the model. For more information on the irrational behaviour of investors it is worthwhile to consider behavioural finance (Shiller, 2003).
b Hyprop acquisition of Attfund portfolio
On 6 December 2010 Hyprop announced that it had in principle reached agreement to purchase the property portfolio of Attfund Retail.
On 21 December 2010, it issued a cautionary announcement regarding the trading of Hyprop units, and provided some financial information on the proposed transaction. On 3 February 2011 the cautionary announcement was renewed.
On 8 April 2011 it was announced that the competition tribunal had approved the transaction. An updated proposal for the transaction with financial effects and forecasts was issued on 13 April 2011, and on 21 April 2011 a circular was posted with full details of the updated transaction, the withdrawal of the cautionary announcement, and a notice of a General Meeting for the shareholders of Hyprop to approve the transaction.]]> The transaction was approved by shareholders of Hyprop on 13 May 2011. The effective date of the transaction was anticipated for either 1 June 2011, or 1 July 2011, conditional to the implementation of the Attfund Retail restructure.
The share price movement of Hyprop for the period September 2010 to 1 July 2011, which was the anticipated effective date of the transaction, is shown in Figure 2. The blue shaded area highlights the period from the first announcement to the one that the transaction was finally approved. From this it seems as if the Hyprop share price underperformed relative to the J203, but if it is similarly compared to the PLS index (J256) as shown in Figure 3, it is obvious that Hyprop may have slightly outperformed the sector in this time period. After the transaction however, the share price falls back to a very similar pattern to the sector.
By testing the effects of the transaction on the share price, using the LREIV model and the details as provided by Hyprop in the cautionary announcements, the value of the 112 000 000 shares to be issued, is calculated at R58-00 per share or combined unit. The transaction, however, takes place at R54-00 per share. This suggests that the share price should increase after the transaction due to the positive effect of these higher valued shares. This is assuming the values given for the assets included in the transaction are accurate.
c Listing of the Investec properties portfolio:
Investec Property Fund Limited (IPF) announced on 6 April 2011 that it would list its portfolio of properties on the JSE, and issued the pre-listing statement containing the financial forecasts for this transaction on the same day.
IPF was listed on 14 April 2011, with no debt other than debenture loans. The 170 000 000 shares were issued at R10-00 for a combined unit, resulting in a total equity position of Rl 700 000 000. The well diversified property portfolio was valued at the time of listing at Rl 696 500 000 (Investec: 2011).
By testing the pre-listing forecast company structure and financials with the LREIV Model, the share price was estimated to be R960. This is assuming that the property values as given by the prelisting announcement are accurate. By comparing the share price performance to the J203 for the period from listing to 1 year after listing, as shown in Figure 4, it seems that IPF performed slightly better than the J203. Figure 5 compares the IPF share price to the J256, where it appears that IPF slightly under-performed against the PLS sector for approximately 6 months, and then started to outperform the sector from approximately October 2011. The LREIV model calculated share price of R9-60 against the IPO amount of Rl 0-00 for the shares might explain the initial underperformance against the sector, but in order to explain the change to an outperformance trend, the history of the company was investigated. On 18 October 2011 a shareholders' meeting was held, approving the purchase of another two properties. By testing the effect of this in the LREIV model, it was calculated that the share price should increase by approximately 27 cents. The trend over the few months after the annual meeting revealed that IPF outperformed the sector (if normalised) by approximately 30 to 40 cents.
7 Conclusion, shortcomings and recommendations
The paper investigated the use of financial statement items to predict the share price movement of PLS companies. It was possible to show that approximately 80 per cent of the long term movement in the market capitalisation, and with the number of shares known, the share price could be explained by the variables as shown as the LREIV model. The results found however, that price discovery takes place in the direct property market when annual data is used, which is in contrast to previous research that found price discovery in the listed property market.]]> In section 6, the LREIV Model was testedon three different examples of recent market transactions. This not only provided some validity to the study, but showed the practical application of the model.
The LREIV model is limited mostly by information availability. It was noted in section 5 that there is evidence of information deficiency, with specific reference to debenture interest paid and to a lesser extent to some observations of other variables. This is similarly the case with the LREIV model as tested, which is based on information available to shareholders only, in the form of annual data. Although this limitation is evident for shareholders or other third parties, it is not necessarily the case for executives of these companies, who have inside information that could be used in the model. The model is however not tested in such an environment and this could therefore not be stated conclusively.
By accepting the alternative hypothesis, the model was formalised in principal form. In order to increase the model's accuracy and credibility it is required to increase the data available for analysis. It is therefore recommended that the model be enlarged with more data, to investigate opportunities of increasing its accuracy.
The study was also limited to PLS companies. It is suggested that further research be performed on the possibilities of applying the model to property unit trust funds as well as real estate investment trusts, as alternative forms of listed property investment.
Furthermore, the study was limited to the South African property market. It is suggested that the applicability of the research be tested on other international markets.
BARKHAM, R. & GELTNER, D. 1995. Price discovery in American and British property markets. Real Estate Economics, 23(1):21-44. [ Links ]
BOOTH, P.M. & MARCATO, G. 2004. The dependency between returns from direct real estate and returns from real estate shares. Journal of Property Investment and Finance, 22(2):147-161. [ Links ]
BOUDRY, W.I., COULSON, N.E., KALLBERG, J.G. & LIU, C.H. 2011. On the hybrid nature of REITs. The Center for Real Estate and Finance: Working Paper, 38 pp. [ Links ]
BRENNAN, M.J. 1990. Latent assets. Journal of Finance, 45(3):709-730. [ Links ]
CHAN, K.C., HENDERSHOTT, P.H. & SANDERS, A.B. 1990. Risk and return on real estate: evidence from equity REITs, AREUEA Journal, 18(4):431-452. [ Links ]]]>
CHAN, S.H., LEUNG, W.K. & WANG, K. 1998. Institutional investment in REITs: evidence and implications. Journal of Real Estate Research, 16(3):357-374. [ Links ]
DOPPEGIETER, J. & RODE, E. 2002. Capitalization rates and property yields: an analysis of the South African commercial property market. Unpublished Working Paper, 17 pp. [ Links ]
DOWNS, D.H. & GUNER, Z.N. 1999. Is the information deficiency in real estate evident in public market trading? Real Estate Economics, 27(3):517-541. [ Links ]
FISHER, J.D., GELTNER, D.M. & WEBB, R.B. 1994. Value indices of commercial real estate: a comparison of index construction methods. Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 9:137-164. [ Links ]
GILIBERTO, S.M. 1990. Equity real estate investment trusts and real estate returns. Journal of Real Estate Research, 5(2):259-263. [ Links ]]]>
GILLAN, S.L. & STARKS, L.T. 1999. Relationship investing and shareholder activism by institutional investors: the wealth effects of corporate governance related proposals. SSRN Working Paper Series. [ Links ]
GILLAN, S.L. & STARKS, L.T. 2000. Corporate governance proposals and shareholder activism: the role of institutional investors. Journal of Financial Economics, 57:275-305. [ Links ]
GLASCOCK, J.L., LU, C. & SO, R.W. 2000. Further evidence on the integration of REIT, bond, and stock returns. Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 20(2):177-194. [ Links ]
GYOURKO, J. & KEIM, D.B. 1992. What does the stock market tell us about real estate returns?, Real Estate Economics, 20(3):457-485. [ Links ]
GYOURKO, J. & KEIM, D.B. 1993. Risk and return in real estate: evidence from a real estate stock index. Financial Analysts Journal, September-October:39-46. [ Links ]]]>
GYOURKO, J. & LINNEMAN, P. 1988. Owner-occupied homes, income-producing properties, and REITs as inflation hedges: empirical findings. Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 1(4):347-372. [ Links ]
HAGER, D.P. & LORD, D.J. 1985. The property market, property valuations and property performance measurement. Conference Paper, JIA (112):19-60. [ Links ]
LEE, S. & STEVENSON, S. 2007. The substitutability of REITs and value stocks. Applied Financial Economics, 17:541-557. [ Links ]
LING, D.C. & NARANJO, A. 1999. The integration of commercial real estate markets and stock markets. Real Estate Economics, 27(3):483-515. [ Links ]
LIZIERI, C. & SATCHELL, S. 1997. Interactions between property and equity markets: an investigation of linkages in the United Kingdom 1972-1992. Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 15(1): 11-26. [ Links ]]]>
MCGREGGOR BFA. 2009-2011. Available at: <http://www.mcgreggorbfa.com> [accessed January 2009-July 2011]. [ Links ]
NEWELL, G. & KENG, T.Y. 2005. Factors influencing the performance of listed property trusts. Paper delivered at the Pacific Rim Real Estate Society Conference 23-27 January 2005, Melbourne, Australia, 22 pp. [ Links ]
PETERSON, J.D. & HSIEH, C. 1997. Do common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds explain returns on REITs? Real Estate Economics, 25(2):321-345. [ Links ]
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SAGALYN, L.B. 1990. Real estate risk and the business cycle: evidence form security markets. Journal of Real Estate Research, 5(2):203-219. [ Links ]]]>
SCOTT, L.O. 1990. Do prices reflect market fundamentals in real estate markets? Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 3:5-23. [ Links ]
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YAVAS, A. & YILDIRIM, Y. 2011. Price discovery in real estate markets: A dynamic analysis. Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 42:1-29. [ Links ]
Accepted: March 2013


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|ツカド Tsukado
|Naruto Shippūden Episode #181
|Appears in
|Voice Actors
Tsukado (ツカド, Tsukado) is a master swordsmen of an unnamed clan who had a vendetta against a man that killed a relative of his, Shikazo.
Tsukado has short spiky black hair and large black eyes.
He is noted to be a very talented swordsman, powerful enough to defeat several enemies at once, shattering their weapons. He is even shown to utilise chakra flow when wielding his sword. While using chakra flow to enhance his sword's strength he was able to carve a gash several inches deep in solid stone.
Part II
Past Arc: The Locus of Konoha
After Shikazo, a member of his clan was killed, Tsukado was chosen with the task of avenging him by the killing the man who killed him, Katazu. He failed 34 times to defeat him. One day, Team 7 meets Tsukado and seeing his poor revenge skills, Naruto decides to train him. Though his lessons were unusual, he managed to get the upper hand in his next fight with the killer. Naruto stops the fight after noticing Katazu's sword wasn't even sharpened, saying he couldn't possibly have killed his relative. Katazu says that it was his twin brother, Kageki who killed Shikazo, but it was an accident. Since then, he has been taking his brother's identity. The Kanabun Gang, who were profiting off their fight, try to get the two to fight again. But with the help of Team 7, the two manage to chase them out of town.

subset: commoncrawl


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Diana Glyer
|Diana Glyer
|Biographical information
|January 1956
|University of Illinois at Chicago
|Professor of English
|California, U.S.A.
|Official website
Dr. Diana Lynne Pavlac Glyer (January 1956) is professor in the Department of English and in the Honors College at Azusa Pacific University. Dr. Glyer received her Ph.D. from the University of Illinois at Chicago and now lives in California.
[edit] Life
Glyer was introduced to the Inklings in high school. She read The Lord of the Rings, and became interested in the friendship of J.R.R. Tolkien and C.S. Lewis. She would spend twenty years researching their relationship, focusing mainly on completeness of primary sources.
In 1997 she received the Clyde S. Kilby Research Grant. This endowed award is presented annually by the Steering Committee of the Marion E. Wade Center to a scholar engaged in a publishable project related to one of the seven authors on which the Center focuses. The intention of the award is both to recognize scholarly contributions and also to assist the work of those who use the resources of the Wade Center.
This grant allowed her to publish the fruits of twenty years of labor. The Company They Keep was released in 2006.
[edit] Bibliography
[edit] Books
- 2006: The Company They Keep
- 2015: Bandersnatch: C.S. Lewis, J.R.R. Tolkien, and the Creative Collaboration of the Inklings
[edit] Articles
- 1995: Proceedings of the J.R.R. Tolkien Centenary Conference
- "More Than a Bandersnatch: The Influence of the Inklings on Tolkien's Middle-Earth"
- 2003: Tollers and Jack: A Comparative Look at the Lives and works of J.R.R. Tolkien and C.S. Lewis
- Foreword
- 2007: Mythlore 99/100
- "The Centre of the Inklings: Lewis? Tolkien? Barfield? Williams?"
- 2007: Mythcon 37
- "Adept at Scholarship: Allies and Obstacles in the Field of Inklings Studies"
[edit] Awards
- 2008 - Mythopoeic Scholarship Award in Inklings Studies - The Company They Keep
- 2007 - Imperishable Flame Award, Tolkien/Inklings Scholarship, The Company They Keep


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South African Rugby
Kaplan prepares to bring down the curtain
Stephen Nell
February 19, 2013
Jonathan Kaplan calls the shots © Getty Images
As Jonathan Kaplan approaches the milestone of becoming the first referee to take charge of 100 Super Rugby matches, the reality is increasingly dawning: The end is near.
The 46-year-old Capetonian last week made an announcement in conjunction with the South African Rugby Union that 2013 will be his last year after over two decades as a referee on their panels.
"I've been refereeing for 30 years and been involved at national level for 21 years. When you have done something for that long, it feels as if something in you is about to die," Kaplan says about his retirement at the end of the year. "But it needed to be done. The incentive of Test rugby has been taken away from me. There comes a time where you have to stop. This is probably as good a time as any."
Kaplan notched numerous milestones over the years. His 68 Tests are a world record, he has refereed five Currie Cup finals, three Super Rugby finals, 150 Currie Cup matches and been at four Rugby World Cup tournaments. And, of course, he will be a centurion in Super Rugby when he runs out for Saturday's match between the Cheetahs and Sharks in Bloemfontein.
Kaplan started refereeing as a hobby and his first match was a club clash between the fourth teams of Wits University and Kempton Park in Johannesburg in 1984. He started refereeing first class rugby with a match between Eastern Province and the SA Barbarians at Ellis Park in Johannesburg in 1993. As the years progressed, Kaplan grew in stature and commanded immense respect worldwide.
"My philosophy is encapsulated by the words - flair, judgement and nerve," he said. "Judgement is the ability to see right from wrong in terms of the black and white of the laws. Flair is the ability to add colour to a picture, in other words your management style, non-verbal cues and game understanding. The importance of adding colour is to have a product that is better for the players first and foremost, and the public thereafter.
"Nerve is the ability to referee under pressure. Sometimes you can't teach that. It's in your character."
Kaplan lists three matches at Test level as career highlights:
Free State's upset victory over the Blue Bulls in the Currie Cup final of 2005 and the Crusaders' remarkable 96-19 Super Rugby win over the Waratahs in 2002 were other favourites. The latter included the best half of rugby he ever witnessed after the Crusaders led 63-0 at the interval.
Of course all referees make mistakes and Kaplan has no hesitation in pointing to the debacle in the Six Nations match between Ireland and Wales in 2011 as the "low point" of his international career. Wales scrumhalf Mike Phillips scored a try that shouldn't have been awarded. The Welsh won 19-13.
"A lapse in concentration had a profound influence on the game. The ball was kicked out and the wrong one was taken. No excuses, it was a poor call," said Kaplan. But you don't referee a record number of Tests without your contribution transcending the inevitable human error along the way.
Ireland's Brian O'Driscoll leads the protests against Mike Phillips' controversial score © Getty Images
Kaplan takes particular pride in matches generally being a pleasure to watch when he's carrying the whistle. He said: "There are many stakeholders who rely on my performance. But like the conductor of an orchestra my primary responsibility is to the people making the noise, which are the players. If I can get their trust and buy-in, the game will inevitably be better.
"I'm very fortunate that I'm involved in Super Rugby and to a lesser degree the Currie Cup. There is a high tempo to Super Rugby games and a lot of razzle dazzle. People are prepared to take chances and I think I am as well sometimes. You get different personalities among referees as well. Sometimes taking risks is part of what we do. There are sometimes grey areas in what we do and then it's how you work with that to create a better product for everyone."
While the pressure is immense and referees are subjected to a lot of uninformed criticism, Kaplan has found his job immensely fulfilling. "What makes it worthwhile for me is when I feel the satisfaction of the players and then to a lesser degree the public," he says. "The response of people after last week's announcement was also a humbling experience. I'm not shy to say that I shed a tear at reading some of the comments on social media because most of those people I've never met and never will.
"What I've found extremely gratifying is that I have put the best years of my life into this hobby and passion. I can't make everyone happy, but by and large what I've done has been noted by the public and that really pleases me."
Kaplan has not got any firm plans for life after professional refereeing just yet, but lists game analysis and a potential media role as a refereeing commentator as options. Irrespective of what he does, he won't hang up the whistle completely.
"I'll still referee club and schools matches as long as there is a need. It started as my hobby and will also end as my hobby."
© ESPN Sports Media Ltd.
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Batteries at the heart of ESA space missions
As a satellite rockets away from Earth, it carries with it one last resource from its homeworld: a precious store of electrical energy, crucial for staying alive and keeping its mission on track.
Most satellites rely on solar panels to feed them electricity once in orbit, but they still need batteries in the first place to kick-start the unfolding of their arrays. Once the solar panels begin to deliver energy, a satellite battery works in the same way as a car battery: charging itself up in order to be ready when the spacecraft experiences peak power demand, passes into shadow, performs a manoeuvre or has an emergency.
For other missions, solar panels remain impractical, and 'primary batteries' are the sole source of power. ESA's Huygens probe, for example, relied on non-rechargeable lithium sulphur dioxide batteries. These were chosen because they could be left inactive during the seven-year trip to Saturn, but still retain sufficient capacity for the landing on Titan. Lithium-sulphuride chloride batteries with high energy density were used for the Foton M3 missions, which allowed for performing experiments in microgravity for more than 10 days before reentering the atmosphere.
Even the Ariane 5 that hauls European spacecraft into space carries high specific-energy batteries to power its autonomous operations during each brief but crucial flight to orbit, including tasks such as inertial navigation and guidance, engine firings and booster separation. And Europe's new Vega launcher is equipped with three different types of Li ion batteries including a high-power lithium-ion battery to power its thrust vector control subsystem and a high energy lithium ion battery to supply the upper stage.
ESA's Energy Storage section at ESTEC works in cooperation with European industry to make a broad range of batteries available for space applications. The battery is among the most mission-critical spacecraft components. Energy storage research and development seeks ways to increase the specific energy to minimise battery mass and volume while maximising reliability, efficiency and cycle life.


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There is a Cedar Rapids connection to the cop watching journalist, Adam Mueller, who will face a jury in a trial next week on a New Hampshire wiretapping case. If convicted, Adam faces up to twenty-one years in prison.
I came into contact with Copblock.org a little more than a year ago when I wasn't getting results from my local police department. I submitted a speech to Copblock.org that I had already delivered in front of my city council on June 14, 2010. My hope was that the national exposure would create positive change in our community and in my opinion it has. http://www.copblock.org/tag/ajai-dittmar/
Adam Mueller aka Ademo Freeman, was the person in which I had exchanged a few emails with before the speech was published on Copblock.org. Adam or Ademo of Copblock.org is dedicated to voluntarism and police accountability.
Adam's charges stem from an incident he reported on that took place in a New Hampshire High School where a sibling spat turned bad when a Police Liaison slung the teen around and then slammed his head into a table at the schools cafeteria.
I don't know whether officials are charging Adam with wiretapping to teach him and people like him a lesson or if they are trying to cover up something bigger at the high school. In my opinion, the school should be looked into along with the police liaison over the school. As a mother I would be appalled if either one of my son's were slammed to the table at lunch over teasing their sister with her handbag. I could see my kids doing exactly what these kids did which in my opinion is perfectly normal.
Of fifty states, twelve of them make publicizing taped interviews a crime punishable by prison New Hampshire, the Live Free or Die state is on that list. One would think that in this day and age with all the technological advances we've made that these types of draconian laws would be thrown out.
Adam's supporters were there in the courtroom with him after standing outside the courthouse in protest. Adam is representing himself pro se (defending himself without an attorney) and his jury was chosen on Monday, August 6, 2012. A camera was allowed into the courtroom.
Stop the State of New Hampshire from convicting Adam, write his lawmakers, make videos asking for his freedom, and spread the word about this case! http://electedlist.com/New_Hampshire.html
I wrote Adam a letter and thanked him for all he has done. The world is not a safer place with Adam behind bars. The trial begins on August 13, 2012. I will keep everyone who's interested posted. http://www.scribd.com/collections/3735171/The-State-of-NH-vs-Adam-Mueller-aka-Ademo-Freeman here is Adam's paperwork from the courts. If you have any ideas that could help Adam please don't hesitate to contact Copblock.org
Meantime use the hashtag #FreeAdemo and help remind people these draconian laws still exist! http://www.copblock.org/18955/ademos-jury-selection-done-trial-in-one-week/
By the way, for my local news agencies, CNN has reported the story and it would be nice if you mentioned it too. http://ireport.cnn.com/docs/DOC-824678


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Several stories this week provide a sobering glimpse at the impact of the American way of life on human health and the environment.
Several stories this week provide a sobering glimpse at the impact of the American way of life on human health and the environment. On Thursday, Fish and Wildlife announced new protections for beluga sturgeon (of caviar fame), and the government proposed the listing of two species of coral as threatened under the Endangered Species Act. Get the details at Government Sets Conditions for Importing Beluga Caviar, Proposes Coral Protections.Real estate agents espouse the importance of location, and indeed it seems that the dream of living by the ocean has been realized by more than half of the U.S. population. Coastal Zone Growth Places Millions in Hazard Areas explains how this "location" of choice has given rise to some complex environmental and safety issues. And more evidence that mercury can be hazardous to fetal health emerged early in the week, with the release of a study examining the costly impact of high mercury levels on IQ. Read the story at Mercury Damage to Babies Costs Billions, Study Says.
In climate-related news, the Kyoto Protocol has created a new market in greenhouse gases, and this week, traders convened in the Netherlands for the first-ever meeting on pollution permits. Get the whole story at Traders Gather for Conference on the World's Newest Trading Commodity: Pollution. Elsewhere, evidence emerged that strong polar winds contribute to ozone depletion, raising new questions about the processes that take place at the ozone layer: Winds Trapping Pollutants, Solar Storms Blamed for Arctic Ozone Loss. But not everyone is convinced that a hole will appear over the Arctic this winter as widely feared. In the articleResearcher Downplays Ozone Hole Risk, Donal Murtagh, a Swedish professor of global environmental measurements, explains what his research reveals.
There are fewer "mysteries of the deep" this week, with the discovery of new life in the Atlantic Ocean (Unusual Life Forms Found at New Hydrothermal Vents in Atlantic) and the capture of images of a never-before-photographed, six-foot squid by an experimental camera (Mystery Squid Helps Prove Ocean Research).
In terrestrial wildlife news, a precipitous butterfly population decline in Mexico raised concerns about logging and pesticide impacts: Biologists Fret as Mexico Butterfly Numbers Dive; activists in New York used graphic tactics to draw attention to the allegedly cruel practices used by some exporters of fur from China: US Animal Rights Activists Protest China Fur; and coyotes continued their march on Washington, causing a host of problems for the area's less wily residents: Washington Wary as New Predator Creeps Closer.
An update to the tragic story of Dorothy Stang, the American nun and dedicated environmentalist killed in Brazil last month: The Brazilian government has given a 22,239-acre patch of the Amazon rainforest to Stang's sustainable development project. Read more at Brazil Awards Disputed Area to Slain Nun's Project.
Going once, going twice.... If you've ever hoped for the opportunity to name a primate after your great-uncle Manfred, be warned that the privilege doesn't come cheap. With a $650,000 bid placed in an online auction, an anonymous individual secured his or her naming rights to a new species of monkey, outbidding comedian Ellen DeGeneres. (See Right to Name New Monkey Sells for $650G.) According to the web site that facilitated the transaction, the funds will go toward protection of the monkey's Bolivian habitat.
As always, ENN is the place to go to keep abreast of the environmental news and information of the day.
Source: ENN


text:
OMEN Nanowire Homework Problems
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Licensed according to this deed.
Published on
OMEN Nanowire homework problems: anyone who has gone through The First-Time User Guide of OMEN Nanowire and done the examples in the guide should be able to run simulations in these homework problems and find the answers to them.
Cite this work
Researchers should cite this work as follows:


text:
'Deep Powder' and the Crazy True Story of International, Drug-Smuggling Teens
It's one thing to make a movie about college and high school students partying too hard and making some very poor decisions, but it's another to do so with a narrative that has roots in a true story, and Mo Ogrodnik's Tribeca Film Festival entry Deep Powder proves it.
The film features Shiloh Fernandez as Danny, a former hockey star who can't hold on to his college scholarship in the wake of his father's passing. Instead of heading off to school and pursuing his dreams, he's living at home with his mother and two young siblings, stuck in a monotonous existence working as a ski lift operator. His routine is rocked when Natasha Tabor (Haley Bennett) and her privileged boarding school friends head up to enjoy a run on Danny's mountain. Danny catches Natasha's eye and the two strike up a relationship, one that's overflowing with honest love and passion, but also one that's bound to destroy them.
Natasha is a member of the secret society, the Deep Powder Alpine Country Club. What appears to be a group dedicated to skiing and the occasional party is actually a vehicle for upholding the annual tradition of sending a member on a trip to Ecuador and returning with a kilo of cocaine. This year it's Natasha's turn to go, but rather than take another member of the club along for the ride, she brings Danny. It's a genius concept for a fictional film, but not only is Deep Powder inspired by true events, Ogrodnik experienced them firsthand.
While talking about the film at the Tribeca Film Festival alongside Fernandez and Bennett, Ogrodnik explained, "I was actually tangentially involved. I was in boarding school at the time and I knew a bunch of those kids." According to an article from the AP News Archive, in April of 1984, U.S. Customs agents at Kennedy Airport nabbed Choate Rosemary Hall students Catherine N. Cowan and Derek Oatis trying to hide 300 grams of cocaine in his shaving kit. Not only did a group of classmates pool the money to pay for the drugs, but they funded the pair's trip to Caracas, Venezuela to purchase them, too. Ultimately 16 students were arrested, most of which were expelled, and the authorities also caught a Venezuelan resident who was responsible for arranging numerous drug-buying trips between Christmas of 1982 and April of 1984.
Oatis wound up with a six-year suspended sentence, five years of probation, and 5,000 hours of community service while Cowan faced a three-year suspended sentence, five years of probation, and 1,000 hours of community service. Over the next few years the other students involved wound up with probation and community service until lastly, in March of 1987, the student who was dubbed "the kingpin" of the operation, was sentenced to a suspended five-year jail term, five years of probation, and 5,000 hours of community service, a generous sentence considering he could have faced up to 15 years in prison for cocaine smuggling.
While Ogrodnik does respect the gravity of the true account, she also enhances its cinematic quality by framing that high concept using a relationship between two very well-developed characters, and one with a somewhat justifiable reason for committing the crime. Fernandez even admitted, "If I put myself in the shoes of my character, I think I would go all the way." Unlike Natasha and her classmates, for Danny, the trip isn't just some thrill ride after which he'll have the luxury of being able to get a quick high. Without a wealthy family, he's making the run to fund his own education. Fernandez noted, "It's not the smartest thing, but I think that it's very relatable that somebody would try to figure this out if something like that dropped in your lap and there's no other options in front of you."
And it's that ability to relate to Danny that makes Deep Powder such a success. When asked about going the sexier and flashier route with the film, Ogrodnik joked, "I wanted to make a really disposable piece of sh*t, but I couldn't; I didn't have enough money!" More seriously, Ogrodnik pointed out, "I really love working with actors," and it shows because she guided both Fernandez and Bennett to deliver two notably well-developed characters, both with very refined personalities, but also two people that can behave impulsively in a very realistic fashion.
Danny's dedicated to his family and very clearly knows right from wrong, but his desperation to succeed and his affection for Natasha understandably rattles his values. Natasha, on the other hand, is much tougher to get a handle on initially, but, as the film progresses, it becomes clear that her free-spirited nature stems from deep-rooted insecurities and emotions that she doesn't know how to handle. As an actress, that was a challenging mind space to access, but Bennett noted that the fact that both she and Ogrodnik are sensitive people made for the ideal collaboration. She explained, "We sort of exposed ourselves and our fears and insecurities and kind of went from there, and she was always so supportive and encouraging."
The duo also needed a little support to handle the psychical requirements of their roles – appearing to be an expert hockey player and skier. Fernandez said that he did take skating lessons and came out with a great respect for the sport, but lamented, "I didn't quite get good enough, I don't think, but it was great." Bennett jumped in and announced, "It was all me skiing," but Ogrodnik's reaction made it abundantly clear that that wasn't the case even before Bennett revealed the movie magic behind her skiing skills. While Bennett did take a lesson, she admitted, "There's people laying on the ground with sticks, with tree branches, and there's a blow dryer and there's a wafter." She continued, "I'm supposed to be very intensely skiing, having a great time, and there's just branches being propelled."
Not only does the team manage to sell Bennett's nonexistent skiing skills, but just about every other element of Deep Powder, too. It's a modest representation of a grand-scale event infused with a remarkable amount of emotion, suspense and heart. Joe Castelo's The Preppie Connection, due to star Evan Peters and Bella Heathcote with the same subject matter at the core, definitely has quite the film to contend with. Check out our full Deep Powder discussion with Bennett, Fernandez and Ogrodnik in the video below and, if you're in the New York area, Deep Powder is highly recommended. You can still catch it at the Tribeca Film Festival on April 26 at 1 p.m.
Movies.com, the ultimate source for everything movies, is your destination for new movie trailers, reviews, photos, times, tickets + more! Stay in the know with the latest movie news and cast interviews at Movies.com.
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How Zachary Adam Chesser, who grew up in suburban Fairfax County, played football and rowed crew at his High School, came to espouse a fundamentalist Islamic ideology is not yet clear, but he was so greatly offended at an episode of South Park that supposedly showed Muhammad in a bear costume ( turns out it's really Santa in the bear costume ) that he issued "warnings" on his website.
Chesser came to the attention of authorities when he attempted to board a flight to Uganda July 10. He admitted that he was on his way to try to join an al-Shabab training camp.
Note to parents : if your teen is offended by South Park, it's time to worry.
WaPo story here.


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"I've worked here for 17 years. We have an awesome leadership program, with lots of opportunity to advance. I became charge nurse in one year."
~Diana, RN, PACU
"The ER is efficient and well-equipped, and waits are not long, which is wonderful for our patients. I like the family-oriented environment; everyone takes care of everyone else."
~Julie, RN, ER Charge Nurse
"I came to the hospital for a 13-week assignment and fell in love with the people here. I extended my contract several times, then decided to stay forever! I do my job in a positive environment, where I feel welcomed and valued."
~Cathy, RN, Labor & Delivery
"Twenty-nine years ago I began working in the NICU. I love working here. The neonatal team is excellent and the nurses are listened to and respected by the physicians on staff. The hospital promotes working together and mentoring young nurses."
~Mary, RN, NICU
"After 11 years, I'm still impressed with the dedicated team of professionals who work with me. The outpatient department is stable and dynamic, and we energize one another. My skills are constantly challenged. In what other profession can you make a difference every day?"
~Chip, RN, Outpatient Services
"After graduating from college I found a great opportunity to learn from experienced therapists here. I've been here for nine years, and I've been able to grow and expand in clinical knowledge and expertise, in the areas I'm most passionate about."
~D'Les, Occupational Therapy
"I wanted the atmosphere of a small hospital. I've been here now for 15 years and there are many of us who have been here that long. We're a good team and we deliver a high standard of care. Best of all, when we have employee forums the management really listens to us and takes action."
~Cindy, RN, Charge Nurse, Med/Surg


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Politics, Humility and Homophobia: The Strangest Bedfellows of All
by: Lita Kurth on October 14th, 2013 | 5 Comments »
I opened my email to the news that Governor Brown had vetoed AB 1229 which would have allowed local governments to require a smidgen of affordable housing along with luxury developments. Immediately, I felt tense and angry, outraged that rent control is illegal in California, and now this further setback. I was despondent and disgusted that a liberal governor would veto one tiny step toward affordable housing.
Then I opened another email about a community college inviting for-profit education companies, at least one of whom had said public education was "broken," to hold a conference on campus.
My stomach tensed. My forehead ached. I felt antagonistic, judgmental, enraged and ready to shout.
Once this state of mind didn't trouble me. I may even have welcomed the adrenaline. Now I distrust it. Would this ferment color the rest of my day, preventing me from being fully present to the people in front of me or from working productively? Fueled by this mood, would an upcoming dialogue with a local politician turn into a bitter, one-way harangue? This mood had a lot of power; it wanted to settle in, rigid, strong, righteous, indeed, self-righteous.
Humility: the virtue nobody wants
We might ask: what's wrong with outrage? Don't we have a right to be outraged? Yes, in a sense we do, just as we have a right to cut ourselves with a knife. And the two are not dissimilar. When I want to rage, here's something that usually stops me before I go too far: remembered footage of Hitler's speeches. He raises his arm, vehement, furious, absolutely certain of his righteousness. And I know I've felt that too. Some might say, "well, my anger is righteous and his wasn't." But isn't that a little too easy? Couldn't that free pass cover too much?
There's a qualitative difference, I notice, between Hitler's utterances and Martin Luther King's. Can you imagine Hitler writing something like this?
If I sought to answer all the criticisms that cross my desk, … I would have no time for constructive work. But since I feel that you are men of genuine good will and that your criticisms are sincerely set forth, I want to try to answer your statements in what I hope will be patient and reasonable terms. (Letter from Birmingham Jail)
Patient and reasonable – those aren't sexy words. They don't send up towering flames of righteous blaze. Nor do they burn bridges. Outrage might produce a flurry of furious emails. It also might dissipate energy I need for meaningful connection, for mindful, useful activism on a daily basis, activism congruent with my values. Patience and reasonableness allow me to draw closer to the real people I want to help (who, like me, are a mixture of lovable and annoying) and the politicians and businesspeople I want to stop from doing harm (who also personally, hard as it is to admit sometimes, are a mixture of lovable and annoying).
Those people I believe to be wrong track should still be real and human to me, not phantoms I fight in my unconscious. (I can't address the extremes of torturers or abductors with whom I might have to physically fight to get away; thank God, I've never faced those situations.)
Leaving Room For Reality
A powerful metaphor resides in a children's rhyme about seven blind men and an elephant. Each of the seven touched a different part of the elephant and because each part differed greatly from the rest, all seven fell into a furious fight over the elephant's appearance. And this represents the best case! None of the seven were lying. None were intoxicated, blurred and biased. All truly experienced something and truthfully reported it. And yet they still differed drastically.
Isn't it embarrassing to remember times you vehemently supported or opposed something you later changed your mind about? None of us can know the whole of reality. If I put myself in my opponents' place, wouldn't I want to know more before deciding that the only reason for their action was absolute evil or corruption? When people on the other side dismiss and diminish our approach and goals, it's easy enough to see what a straw man they've made of us – which only solidifies our view of them as unfair and ignorant.
It will be a lifelong goal to reach patience and reasonableness, but I do see some progress. Nowadays, when I oversimplify to puff up my own righteousness, I feel a bit uneasy, pretty sure that a person of integrity doesn't do this. I don't want to promote quiescence and obliviousness or fail to act vigorously on behalf of the good. But how do I avoid becoming a replica of the worst on the other side? How do I leave room for the complexity of the actual world? How do I leave room for solutions I haven't already thought of, that arise from partnership? How do I remain open to new knowledge? Do I want to bypass a possible win-win situation and jump straight into win-lose?
Given that most issues I care about – poverty, injustice, suffering – are complex, I can't afford to believe I know it all already. I can't afford to stop learning.
Does Outrage Work?
When I consider how my own mind has changed, it was never because someone attacked and judged me harshly. It almost always arose from the surprising response of someone I respected. One example: I grew up literally and genuinely homophobic, one of those who are called "haters" though it was not true that I hated homosexuals. Not knowing any or rather not knowing that I knew any (undoubtedly they existed, but in my environs, to be out of the closet was to be outside of society, unemployable, unrelatable), I was terrified of them. Once in high school, a girl started a buzz in homeroom about a lesbian who had attacked someone in the bathroom. Though there weren't any details, I became afraid to enter a bathroom without my friends, worried about gym showers. I cannot remember exactly what I thought would happen, what the attack would entail. I uncritically accepted the rumor. Later, a friend of mine scoffed, "I know her. She rides my bus. She's a foster girl. I'm sure she didn't attack anyone, and I think it's mean to spread those rumors."
How I Stopped Being Homophobic
After high school when I lived in England, a conversation came up about Jeremy Thorpe, the Liberal Party leader who was forced to step down after news leaked of a homosexual affair. My new British family expressed outrage that he'd been forced out. I was confused. "Doesn't the Bible say homosexuality is wrong?" I asked. A look was exchanged in the front seat.
What if instead of a restrained response, they had roundly condemned me? What if they had expressed outrage and mercilessly attacked my ignorance? They would have been justified, and such a response would not have helped me understand or grow.
England was a lot more open about gayness than northern Wisconsin. British language was peppered with gay sexual verbs and jokes, the media chockfull of men dressed as women. But I had lived in a world where the closet was hermetically sealed. Once the group, Queen appeared on Top of the Pops, and after watching Freddy Mercury, I asked my British sister if she thought he could possibly be gay. "Oh, I don't know. A name like Queen," she joked. She may have rolled her eyes.
I had to read books about gay people and watch movies before I could call into question my fundamentalist upbringing or in fact, know what I was talking about. At first, gay people existed in my mind like the devil, a nightmare. Because their sexuality did not stay within the bounds prescribed by church and culture, it seemed to me that maybe their sexuality had no bounds at all. Maybe like the plenitude of men in my community, from uncles to priests, who molested little girls, their sexuality had no limits. Next gay people were the object of patronizing sympathy, mentally unwell but harmless. I had to get to know gay people before I could comprehend what day-to-day gay life might be, how it could be one branch of normal. I'm sad that I didn't know more sooner, but how could I have?
The Power of Personal Stories
Picket signs with personal attacks seldom change minds. They may rally the faithful or amuse the partisan, but chants and slogans seldom convert the opposition. But when people make themselves vulnerable (as so many gay people have), when they truthfully tell their own stories, even stories of imperfection and bad behavior, we have a chance of processing that truth rather than rejecting it. We may find some point of identification. We may not even realize we are changing until we are changed.
How very fortunate that we have numerous means of influencing policy toward the good, of promoting democracy and building community. It's a long, slow, and sometimes discouraging process, but we do have allies, even in public office. There is always the chance that some unlikely person will change. Thank God, things have not devolved to the point where we are fighting with guns, at least not most of us on American soil most of the time. People with guns facing other people with guns don't tell a lot of personal stories. They don't change a lot of minds, and even when they smash the opposition to bloody smithereens, some bitter remainder survives, often bent on revenge. There's nothing glorious about living in fear and hatred.
In a recent letter, Michael Lerner noted that the left often talks about fairness and justice, but less often about love and generosity. Those are vulnerable terms, personal words, and I agree with him that they are needed in our conversations about everything from Syria to taxes. And so today when I go to my meeting on affordable housing, I'll go with an open mind, listening for solutions that I can't entirely predict and certainly can't control, listening for what I don't know. I hope to remember what is within my power: to treat other people the way I'd like us all to be treated in a better world.


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MOVIE REVIEW-Dull and duller: <i>Legion</i>'s apocalyptic vision offers few thrills
So what were Americans spending their movie money on last weekend?
Avatar passed The Dark Knight to become the second-highest grosser of all time in the U.S. and Canada– it should surpass Titanic by Valentine's Day, although Titanic had lower ticket prices and no add-ons like 3-D and Imax to raise prices further– and already became number one internationally.
Second for the weekend in America, with half the gross of Avatar in its sixth weekend, was Legion, which is likely to be a one-week wonder. Like The Book of Eli it's a pseudo-spiritual thriller about an apocryphal apocalypse.
This time it hasn't happened yet– and may not, if turncoat ("I'm following my own orders now") Archangel Michael (Paul Bettany) can prevent it. It's a time much like today, when "God lost faith in man" and planned to succeed where the Flood failed.
The setting is a dusty diner named Paradise Falls (symbolism much?) on the edge of the Mojave Desert. They don't usually do much business but on this day– December 23 (uh oh!)– the place fills up with character types.
Bob Hanson (Dennis Quaid) owns the diner and runs it with a little help from his son Jeep (Lucas Black) and one-armed cook Percy (Charles S. Dutton). Waitress Charlie (Adrianne Palicki) is eight months pregnant and doesn't want to keep the baby, but Jeep is eager to take care of it– and her– even though he's not the father.
A yuppie family– Howard (Jon Tenney), Sandra (Kate Walsh) and their slutty daughter (Willa Holland), who puts the "Audrey" in "tawdry," are waiting for Jeep to fix their BMW so they can move on. Kyle (Tyrese Gibson), a semi-thug on the verge of reforming, stops by to use the phone just as an old lady (Jeanette Miller) starts cussing, biting people and skittering around on the ceiling.
A plague of insects heralds Michael's arrival. I'm sure his tattoos are described in the Bible somewhere, but I can't quote chapter and verse. Anyway, all hell– or whatever– breaks loose as an army of "ordinary people" with pointy teeth attacks the diner. Michael has brought enough guns and ammo to fight them off– for now.
He warns that they'll be back, but while we're waiting, there's time for him to explain what's going on and for various people to get acquainted with each other through very dull conversations. Michael explains about God being pissed off and that the whole point of this cosmic battle is to keep Charlie's baby from being born. "Your child is the only hope humanity has of surviving," he tells her.
Considering the number of miscarriages that occur every day, God could probably cause one more a lot simpler than sending angels and pointy-toothed people– and I forgot to mention the Ice Cream Man– but then there wouldn't be a movie, and what a great loss that would be!
After another massive battle Michael's brother arrives, the Archangel Gabriel (Kevin Durand). They talk a little, then look like they're going to kiss– no, maybe thumb-wrestle; then they fight to the death, or as close as an archangel can come to dying.
Legion is the first feature for director and co-writer Scott Stewart, whose previous work was mostly in special effects. The experience has probably taught him that computers are easier to program than people, who need to be told whether they're supposed to take a story seriously or play it the way it deserves to be played.
Most of the cast try for serious most of the time, but they can't make us believe it. This may not be Quaid's career worst, but it's got to come close. Gibson gives as good a performance as anyone, possibly because he doesn't have enough screen time to wear out his welcome.
The good effects are in the trailer. Just about everything else in Legion is silly, boring or both. If God wants to make humanity suffer, making movies like this is an effective way to do it.


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The Tyne Bridge is a through arch bridge over the River Tyne linking Newcastle upon Tyne and Gateshead. It was designed by the engineering firm Mott, Hay and Anderson, who later designed the Forth Road Bridge, and was built by Dorman Long and Co. of Middlesbrough. At the time of its construction it was the world's longest single span bridge. The bridge was officially opened on 10 October 1928 by King George V and has since become a defining symbol of Tyneside. It currently stands as the tenth tallest structure in the city.
History of construction
The earliest bridge across the Tyne, Pons Aelius, was built by the Romans near the location of the present Tyne Bridge. Built around 122, it fell into disrepair, and a stone bridge was built in 1270. This was in turn destroyed by the great flood of 1771. In 1781, a new stone bridge across the Tyne was completed. Increased shipping activity led to the stone bridge being removed in 1866 to make way for construction of the present Swing Bridge, which opened in 1876. The idea for a bridge at the location of the present Tyne Bridge dates back to 1864, due to concern about the cost of tolls on the High Level Bridge - although the first serious discussions took place in 1883. Committees met over the next three decades, but it wasn't until the early 1920s that proposals were commenced in earnest, boosted by the chance to secure central government funding. On 29 April 1924, Newcastle and Gateshead approved the plans, and the Newcastle upon Tyne and Gateshead (Corporations) Bridge Act was passed on 7 August that year, with an estimated cost of £1 million including land acquisitions. The final cost on completion was £1.2 million. Work started in August 1925 with Dorman Long acting as the building contractors. Despite the dangers of the building work, only one worker (Charles Tosh) died in the building of this structure. The Tyne Bridge was designed by Mott, Hay and Anderson who based their design on the Hell Gate Bridge in New York (which was completed in 1916). The bridge was completed on 25 February 1928 and opened on 10 October by King George V and Queen Mary, who were the first to use the roadway travelling in their Ascot landau. The Tyne Bridge's towers were built of Cornish granite and were designed as warehouses with five storeys. However, the inner floors of the warehouses in the bridge's towers were not completed and, as a result, the storage areas were never used. Lifts for passengers and goods were built in the towers to provide access to the Quayside although they are no longer in use. The bridge was originally painted green with special paint made by J. Dampney Co. of Gateshead. The same colours were used to paint the bridge in 2000. The bridge spans 531 feet (162 m) and the road deck is 84 feet (26 m) above the river level.
History of operations
Tram lines were built into the Tyne Bridge structure and ready for immediate use after the opening ceremony in October 1928. Tram car No. 289 was the last Newcastle tram to run into Gateshead over the Tyne Bridge on Sunday 5 March 1950 at approximately 10.55 pm. The tram lines were subsequently removed, although some vestiges of these remain such as redundant fixings for overhead power lines. Golden jubilee celebrations were held on 10 October 1978, when one thousand balloons were released into the sky above the Tyne to celebrate the anniversary of the Tyne Bridge. To mark the occasion a cavalcade of vintage vehicles and a procession of people in period dress stopped traffic, re-creating the opening ceremony when King George V declared the bridge open in 1928. Upon opening, the bridge carried the A1 road. Following the opening of the Tyne Tunnel in 1967 however, the A1 was diverted to the East and the road became the A6127. Following the construction of the Newcastle Western Bypass, the A1 moved again and the bridge was redesignated as the A167 which it remains today.
Description courtesy of Tyne Bridge - Wikipedia.
Further information
- BBC Inside Out - Tyne Bridge
- The Tyne Bridge Under Construction as seen in old postcards and photographs
- Building the Tyne Bridge
- Structurae : Tyne Bridge (1928)
- Tyne Bridge Web Cams
- Shades of the Past - Original Black and White Photos of the Construction of the Tyne Bridge
- Building the Tyne Bridge photography exhibition
- BBC - Nation on Film - Tyne Bridge - Construction
- Statistics and diagram
- Tyne Bridge - Wikipedia
- The Tyne Bridge Under Construction as seen in old postcards and photographs
- SINE Project, Structure Details for New Tyne Bridge


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|Bristol, CT
|High School:
|Bristol Central
Collegiate Personal Bests:
55 Meter Dash: 7.64
60 Meter Dash: 8.17
100 Meter Dash: 12.73
200 Meter Dash: 25.80
400 Meter Dash: 59.70
2012 Outdoor Track: Placed fifth in the 200 meter dash at the Holy Cross Invitational with a career-best time of 25.80...Ran the first leg of the 4x100 meter relay at the Northeast Conference Outdoor Championships, the team crossed the finish line in 48.68 for fifth place...Also competed in the 4x400 meter relay at the NECs, team earned seventh with a time of 3:58.28...Placed 16th in the 100 meter dash at the UMASS Spring Meet on April 14 with a time of 13.08.
2012 Indoor Track: Placed 21st in the 400 meter dash at the Yale Collegiate Invitational on Jan. 14 with a time of 1:01.41...Ran a 7.66 in the 55 meter dash preliminary competition at the Joe Donahue Boston Indoor Games...Completed the 200 meter dash in 25.90 in the preliminary competition at the NEICAAA Indoor Championships.
2010-2011: Sprinted a career-best 26.81 in the 200m event...Posted times of 8.38 in the 60m, 13.03 in the 100m, and 1:01.68 in the 400m events.
Before Central: Competed in outdoor track and field for four years at Bristol Central…Earned all-conference honors and received All-State recognition in the 4x100 meter relay...Also garnered All-Academic accolades at Bristol Central.


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In late November, Marqise Lee was mum on what's expected to be a decision that lands him in the NFL in 2014.
Shortly USC's bowl game, that decision, whatever it turns out to be, will become official.
The wide receiver said Sunday he will "probably" announce his decision on his football future in the days after the Trojans' Dec. 21 Las Vegas Bowl game against Fresno State. Lee intimated, by describing the postseason matchup with Fresno State as both a "little game" and a "last game," that the postseason matchup will be his last as a Trojan.
"Right now, you've still got a game going on," the junior said. "Thinking about that can affect the way I play. … I try not to think about it as much. Just go through this last little game not worrying about it because I am trying to have a great last game."
If as expected Lee makes the early leap to the NFL, the true junior is expected to be one of the first receivers taken. Lee has battled both injuries and a coaching change in what's been the worst of his three seasons in the Land of Troy.
His first two seasons with the Trojans, Lee totaled 191 receptions and 25 touchdowns, including 118 and 14 in 2012. Because of the injuries — and Matt Barkley's departure — Lee has just 50 catches and two touchdowns this season. He's caught two or fewer passes in three of the nine games he's played this year; that had happened just four times in 25 career games entering 2013.